Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

2005-01-01

We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Uplift rates of marine terraces as a constraint on fault-propagation fold kinematics: Examples from the Hawkswood and Kate anticlines, North Canterbury, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oakley, David O. S.; Fisher, Donald M.; Gardner, Thomas W.; Stewart, Mary Kate

2018-01-01

Marine terraces on growing fault-propagation folds provide valuable insight into the relationship between fold kinematics and uplift rates, providing a means to distinguish among otherwise non-unique kinematic model solutions. Here, we investigate this relationship at two locations in North Canterbury, New Zealand: the Kate anticline and Haumuri Bluff, at the northern end of the Hawkswood anticline. At both locations, we calculate uplift rates of previously dated marine terraces, using DGPS surveys to estimate terrace inner edge elevations. We then use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit fault-propagation fold kinematic models to structural geologic data, and we incorporate marine terrace uplift into the models as an additional constraint. At Haumuri Bluff, we find that marine terraces, when restored to originally horizontal surfaces, can help to eliminate certain trishear models that would fit the geologic data alone. At Kate anticline, we compare uplift rates at different structural positions and find that the spatial pattern of uplift rates is more consistent with trishear than with a parallel-fault propagation fold kink-band model. Finally, we use our model results to compute new estimates for fault slip rates ( 1-2 m/ka at Kate anticline and 1-4 m/ka at Haumuri Bluff) and ages of the folds ( 1 Ma), which are consistent with previous estimates for the onset of folding in this region. These results are consistent with previous work on the age of onset of folding in this region, provide revised estimates of fault slip rates necessary to understand the seismic hazard posed by these faults, and demonstrate the value of incorporating marine terraces in inverse fold kinematic models as a means to distinguish among non-unique solutions.

Gas Path On-line Fault Diagnostics Using a Nonlinear Integrated Model for Gas Turbine Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Feng; Huang, Jin-quan; Ji, Chun-sheng; Zhang, Dong-dong; Jiao, Hua-bin

2014-08-01

Gas turbine engine gas path fault diagnosis is closely related technology that assists operators in managing the engine units. However, the performance gradual degradation is inevitable due to the usage, and it result in the model mismatch and then misdiagnosis by the popular model-based approach. In this paper, an on-line integrated architecture based on nonlinear model is developed for gas turbine engine anomaly detection and fault diagnosis over the course of the engine's life. These two engine models have different performance parameter update rate. One is the nonlinear real-time adaptive performance model with the spherical square-root unscented Kalman filter (SSR-UKF) producing performance estimates, and the other is a nonlinear baseline model for the measurement estimates. The fault detection and diagnosis logic is designed to discriminate sensor fault and component fault. This integration architecture is not only aware of long-term engine health degradation but also effective to detect gas path performance anomaly shifts while the engine continues to degrade. Compared to the existing architecture, the proposed approach has its benefit investigated in the experiment and analysis.

Using Remote Sensing Data to Constrain Models of Fault Interactions and Plate Boundary Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G. A.; Parker, J. W.; Milliner, C. W. D.

2016-12-01

Determining the distribution of slip and behavior of fault interactions at plate boundaries is a complex problem. Field and remotely sensed data often lack the necessary coverage to fully resolve fault behavior. However, realistic physical models may be used to more accurately characterize the complex behavior of faults constrained with observed data, such as GPS, InSAR, and SfM. These results will improve the utility of using combined models and data to estimate earthquake potential and characterize plate boundary behavior. Plate boundary faults exhibit complex behavior, with partitioned slip and distributed deformation. To investigate what fraction of slip becomes distributed deformation off major faults, we examine a model fault embedded within a damage zone of reduced elastic rigidity that narrows with depth and forward model the slip and resulting surface deformation. The fault segments and slip distributions are modeled using the JPL GeoFEST software. GeoFEST (Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool) is a two- and three-dimensional finite element software package for modeling solid stress and strain in geophysical and other continuum domain applications [Lyzenga, et al., 2000; Glasscoe, et al., 2004; Parker, et al., 2008, 2010]. New methods to advance geohazards research using computer simulations and remotely sensed observations for model validation are required to understand fault slip, the complex nature of fault interaction and plate boundary deformation. These models help enhance our understanding of the underlying processes, such as transient deformation and fault creep, and can aid in developing observation strategies for sUAV, airborne, and upcoming satellite missions seeking to determine how faults behave and interact and assess their associated hazard. Models will also help to characterize this behavior, which will enable improvements in hazard estimation. Validating the model results against remotely sensed observations will allow us to better constrain fault zone rheology and physical properties, having implications for the overall understanding of earthquake physics, fault interactions, plate boundary deformation and earthquake hazard, preparedness and risk reduction.

Back analysis of fault-slip in burst prone environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sainoki, Atsushi; Mitri, Hani S.

2016-11-01

In deep underground mines, stress re-distribution induced by mining activities could cause fault-slip. Seismic waves arising from fault-slip occasionally induce rock ejection when hitting the boundary of mine openings, and as a result, severe damage could be inflicted. In general, it is difficult to estimate fault-slip-induced ground motion in the vicinity of mine openings because of the complexity of the dynamic response of faults and the presence of geological structures. In this paper, a case study is conducted for a Canadian underground mine, herein called "Mine-A", which is known for its seismic activities. Using a microseismic database collected from the mine, a back analysis of fault-slip is carried out with mine-wide 3-dimensional numerical modeling. A back analysis is conducted to estimate the physical and mechanical properties of the causative fracture or shear zones. One large seismic event has been selected for the back analysis to detect a fault-slip related seismic event. In the back analysis, the shear zone properties are estimated with respect to moment magnitude of the seismic event and peak particle velocity (PPV) recorded by a strong ground motion sensor. The estimated properties are then validated through comparison with peak ground acceleration recorded by accelerometers. Lastly, ground motion in active mining areas is estimated by conducting dynamic analysis with the estimated values. The present study implies that it would be possible to estimate the magnitude of seismic events that might occur in the near future by applying the estimated properties to the numerical model. Although the case study is conducted for a specific mine, the developed methodology can be equally applied to other mines suffering from fault-slip related seismic events.

On Identifiability of Bias-Type Actuator-Sensor Faults in Multiple-Model-Based Fault Detection and Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, Suresh M.

2012-01-01

This paper explores a class of multiple-model-based fault detection and identification (FDI) methods for bias-type faults in actuators and sensors. These methods employ banks of Kalman-Bucy filters to detect the faults, determine the fault pattern, and estimate the fault values, wherein each Kalman-Bucy filter is tuned to a different failure pattern. Necessary and sufficient conditions are presented for identifiability of actuator faults, sensor faults, and simultaneous actuator and sensor faults. It is shown that FDI of simultaneous actuator and sensor faults is not possible using these methods when all sensors have biases.

Quasi-dynamic earthquake fault systems with rheological heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.

2009-12-01

Seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates, such models cannot allow for physical statements of the described seismicity. In contrary such empirical stochastic models, physics based earthquake fault systems models allow for a physical reasoning and interpretation of the produced seismicity and system dynamics. Recently different fault system earthquake simulators based on frictional stick-slip behavior have been used to study effects of stress heterogeneity, rheological heterogeneity, or geometrical complexity on earthquake occurrence, spatial and temporal clustering of earthquakes, and system dynamics. Here we present a comparison of characteristics of synthetic earthquake catalogs produced by two different formulations of quasi-dynamic fault system earthquake simulators. Both models are based on discretized frictional faults embedded in an elastic half-space. While one (1) is governed by rate- and state-dependent friction with allowing three evolutionary stages of independent fault patches, the other (2) is governed by instantaneous frictional weakening with scheduled (and therefore causal) stress transfer. We analyze spatial and temporal clustering of events and characteristics of system dynamics by means of physical parameters of the two approaches.

Data-based hybrid tension estimation and fault diagnosis of cold rolling continuous annealing processes.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Chai, Tianyou; Wang, Hong; Qin, Si-Zhao Joe

2011-12-01

The continuous annealing process line (CAPL) of cold rolling is an important unit to improve the mechanical properties of steel strips in steel making. In continuous annealing processes, strip tension is an important factor, which indicates whether the line operates steadily. Abnormal tension profile distribution along the production line can lead to strip break and roll slippage. Therefore, it is essential to estimate the whole tension profile in order to prevent the occurrence of faults. However, in real annealing processes, only a limited number of strip tension sensors are installed along the machine direction. Since the effects of strip temperature, gas flow, bearing friction, strip inertia, and roll eccentricity can lead to nonlinear tension dynamics, it is difficult to apply the first-principles induced model to estimate the tension profile distribution. In this paper, a novel data-based hybrid tension estimation and fault diagnosis method is proposed to estimate the unmeasured tension between two neighboring rolls. The main model is established by an observer-based method using a limited number of measured tensions, speeds, and currents of each roll, where the tension error compensation model is designed by applying neural networks principal component regression. The corresponding tension fault diagnosis method is designed using the estimated tensions. Finally, the proposed tension estimation and fault diagnosis method was applied to a real CAPL in a steel-making company, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Examples of Nonconservatism in the CARE 3 Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Kelly J.

1988-01-01

This paper presents parameter regions in the CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation version 3) computer program where the program overestimates the reliability of a modeled system without warning the user. Five simple models of fault-tolerant computer systems are analyzed; and, the parameter regions where reliability is overestimated are given. The source of the error in the reliability estimates for models which incorporate transient fault occurrences was not readily apparent. However, the source of much of the error for models with permanent and intermittent faults can be attributed to the choice of values for the run-time parameters of the program.

A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Yumin; Lum, Kai-Yew; Wang Qingguo

In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus,more » the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.« less

A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yumin; Wang, Qing-Guo; Lum, Kai-Yew

2009-03-01

In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus, the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

A teleseismic study of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake and implications for rapid strong-motion estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, C.; Helmberger, D.V.; Wald, D.J.

2004-01-01

Slip histories for the 2002 M7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake are derived rapidly from global teleseismic waveform data. In phases, three models improve matching waveform data and recovery of rupture details. In the first model (Phase I), analogous to an automated solution, a simple fault plane is fixed based on the preliminary Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor mechanism and the epicenter provided by the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters. This model is then updated (Phase II) by implementing a more realistic fault geometry inferred from Digital Elevation Model topography and further (Phase III) by using the calibrated P-wave and SH-wave arrival times derived from modeling of the nearby 2002 M6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake. These models are used to predict the peak ground velocity and the shaking intensity field in the fault vicinity. The procedure to estimate local strong motion could be automated and used for global real-time earthquake shaking and damage assessment. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

A Unified Nonlinear Adaptive Approach for Detection and Isolation of Engine Faults

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; DeCastro, Jonathan A.; Zhang, Xiaodong; Farfan-Ramos, Luis; Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

A challenging problem in aircraft engine health management (EHM) system development is to detect and isolate faults in system components (i.e., compressor, turbine), actuators, and sensors. Existing nonlinear EHM methods often deal with component faults, actuator faults, and sensor faults separately, which may potentially lead to incorrect diagnostic decisions and unnecessary maintenance. Therefore, it would be ideal to address sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults under one unified framework. This paper presents a systematic and unified nonlinear adaptive framework for detecting and isolating sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults for aircraft engines. The fault detection and isolation (FDI) architecture consists of a parallel bank of nonlinear adaptive estimators. Adaptive thresholds are appropriately designed such that, in the presence of a particular fault, all components of the residual generated by the adaptive estimator corresponding to the actual fault type remain below their thresholds. If the faults are sufficiently different, then at least one component of the residual generated by each remaining adaptive estimator should exceed its threshold. Therefore, based on the specific response of the residuals, sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults can be isolated. The effectiveness of the approach was evaluated using the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine model, and simulation results are presented.

Machine remaining useful life prediction: An integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy and high-order particle filtering approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chaochao; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

2012-04-01

Machine prognosis can be considered as the generation of long-term predictions that describe the evolution in time of a fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem so that timely maintenance can be performed to avoid catastrophic failures. This paper proposes an integrated RUL prediction method using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and high-order particle filtering, which forecasts the time evolution of the fault indicator and estimates the probability density function (pdf) of RUL. The ANFIS is trained and integrated in a high-order particle filter as a model describing the fault progression. The high-order particle filter is used to estimate the current state and carry out p-step-ahead predictions via a set of particles. These predictions are used to estimate the RUL pdf. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated via the real-world data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 helicopter planetary gear plate. The results demonstrate that it outperforms both the conventional ANFIS predictor and the particle-filter-based predictor where the fault growth model is a first-order model that is trained via the ANFIS.

Statistical inference in comparing DInSAR and GPS data in fault areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barzaghi, R.; Borghi, A.; Kunzle, A.

2012-04-01

DInSAR and GPS data are nowadays currently used in geophysical investigation, e.g. for estimating slip rate over the fault plane in seismogenic areas. This analysis is usually done by mapping the surface deformation rates as estimated by GPS and DInSAR over the fault plane using suitable geophysical models (e.g. the Okada model). Usually, DInSAR vertical velocities and GPS horizontal velocities are used for getting an integrated slip estimate. However, it is sometimes critical to merge the two kinds of information since they may reflect a common undergoing geophysical signal plus different disturbing signals that are not related to the fault dynamic. In GPS and DInSAR data analysis, these artifacts are mainly connected to signal propagation in the atmosphere and to hydrological phenomena (e.g. variation in the water table). Thus, some coherence test between the two information must be carried out in order to properly merge the GPS and DInSAR velocities in the inversion procedure. To this aim, statistical tests have been studied to check for the compatibility of the two deformation rate estimates coming from GPS and DInSAR data analysis. This has been done according both to standard and Bayesian testing methodology. The effectiveness of the proposed inference methods has been checked with numerical simulations in the case of a normal fault. The fault structure is defined following the Pollino fault model and both GPS and DInSAR data are simulated according to real data acquired in this area.

Optimal design and use of retry in fault tolerant real-time computer systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Y. H.; Shin, K. G.

1983-01-01

A new method to determin an optimal retry policy and for use in retry of fault characterization is presented. An optimal retry policy for a given fault characteristic, which determines the maximum allowable retry durations to minimize the total task completion time was derived. The combined fault characterization and retry decision, in which the characteristics of fault are estimated simultaneously with the determination of the optimal retry policy were carried out. Two solution approaches were developed, one based on the point estimation and the other on the Bayes sequential decision. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the first approach, and the backward induction for testing hypotheses in the second approach. Numerical examples in which all the durations associated with faults have monotone hazard functions, e.g., exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions are presented. These are standard distributions commonly used for modeling analysis and faults.

New Constraints on Models for Time-Variable Displacement Rates on the San Jacinto Fault Zone, Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, M.; Bennett, R.; Matti, J.

2004-12-01

Existing geodetic, geomorphic, and geologic studies yield apparently conflicting estimates of fault displacement rates over the last 1.5 m.y. in the greater San Andreas fault (SAF) system of southern California. Do these differences reflect biases in one or more of the inference methods, or is fault displacement really temporally variable? Arguments have been presented for both cases. We investigate the plausibility of variable-rate fault models by combining basin deposit provenance, fault trenching, seismicity, gravity, and magnetic data sets from the San Bernardino basin. These data allow us to trace the path and broad timing of strike-slip fault displacements in buried basement rocks, which in turn allows us to test weather variable-fault rate models fit the displacement path and rate data through the basin. The San Bernardino basin lies between the San Jacinto fault (SJF) and the SAF. Isostatic gravity signatures show a 2 km deep graben centered directly over the modern strand of the SJF, whereas the basin is shallow and a-symmetric next to the SAF. This observation indicates that stresses necessary to create the basin have been centered on the SJF for most of the basin's history. Linear magnetic anomalies, used as geologic markers, are offset ˜25 km across the northernmost strands of the SJF, which matches offset estimations south of the basin. These offset anomalies indicate that the SJF and SAF are discrete fault systems that do not directly interact south of the San Gabriel Mountains, therefore spatial slip variability combined with sparse sampling cannot explain the conflicting rate data. Furthermore, analyses of basin deposits indicate that movement on the SJF began between 1.3 to1.5 Ma, yielding an over-all average displacement rate in the range of 17 to 19 mm/yr, which is higher than some shorter-term estimates based on geodesy and geomorphology. Average displacement rates over this same time period for the San Bernardino strand of the SAF, on the other hand, are inferred to be low, consistent with some recent short-term estimates based on geodesy, but in contrast with estimates based on geomorphology. We conclude that either published estimates for the short-term SJF displacement rate do not accurately reflect the full SJF rate, or that the SJF rate has decreased over time, with implications for rate changes on other faults in the region. We explore the latter explanation with models for time-variable displacement rate for the greater SAF system that satisfy all existing data.

Hidden Markov models for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic J. (Inventor)

1995-01-01

The invention is a system failure monitoring method and apparatus which learns the symptom-fault mapping directly from training data. The invention first estimates the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector x of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(w(sub i) (vertical bar)/x), 1 less than or equal to i isless than or equal to m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. In this hierarchical pattern of information flow, the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making.

Hidden Markov models for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic J. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

The invention is a system failure monitoring method and apparatus which learns the symptom-fault mapping directly from training data. The invention first estimates the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector x of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(w(sub i) perpendicular to x), 1 less than or equal to i is less than or equal to m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. In this hierarchical pattern of information flow, the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making.

Evaluation of reliability modeling tools for advanced fault tolerant systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Robert; Scheper, Charlotte

1986-01-01

The Computer Aided Reliability Estimation (CARE III) and Automated Reliability Interactice Estimation System (ARIES 82) reliability tools for application to advanced fault tolerance aerospace systems were evaluated. To determine reliability modeling requirements, the evaluation focused on the Draper Laboratories' Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS) architecture as an example architecture for fault tolerance aerospace systems. Advantages and limitations were identified for each reliability evaluation tool. The CARE III program was designed primarily for analyzing ultrareliable flight control systems. The ARIES 82 program's primary use was to support university research and teaching. Both CARE III and ARIES 82 were not suited for determining the reliability of complex nodal networks of the type used to interconnect processing sites in the AIPS architecture. It was concluded that ARIES was not suitable for modeling advanced fault tolerant systems. It was further concluded that subject to some limitations (the difficulty in modeling systems with unpowered spare modules, systems where equipment maintenance must be considered, systems where failure depends on the sequence in which faults occurred, and systems where multiple faults greater than a double near coincident faults must be considered), CARE III is best suited for evaluating the reliability of advanced tolerant systems for air transport.

Online Sensor Fault Detection Based on an Improved Strong Tracking Filter

PubMed Central

Wang, Lijuan; Wu, Lifeng; Guan, Yong; Wang, Guohui

2015-01-01

We propose a method for online sensor fault detection that is based on the evolving Strong Tracking Filter (STCKF). The cubature rule is used to estimate states to improve the accuracy of making estimates in a nonlinear case. A residual is the difference in value between an estimated value and the true value. A residual will be regarded as a signal that includes fault information. The threshold is set at a reasonable level, and will be compared with residuals to determine whether or not the sensor is faulty. The proposed method requires only a nominal plant model and uses STCKF to estimate the original state vector. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified by simulation on a drum-boiler model. PMID:25690553

The 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake, Southern California: Vector Near-Field Displacements from ERS InSAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandwell, David T.; Sichoix, Lydie; Smith, Bridget

2002-01-01

Two components of fault slip are uniquely determined from two line-of-sight (LOS) radar interferograms by assuming that the fault-normal component of displacement is zero. We use this approach with ascending and descending interferograms from the ERS satellites to estimate surface slip along the Hector Mine earthquake rupture. The LOS displacement is determined by visually counting fringes to within 1 km of the outboard ruptures. These LOS estimates and uncertainties are then transformed into strike- and dip-slip estimates and uncertainties; the transformation is singular for a N-S oriented fault and optimal for an E-W oriented fault. In contrast to our previous strike-slip estimates, which were based only on a descending interferogram, we now find good agreement with the geological measurements, except at the ends of the rupture. The ascending interferogram reveals significant west-sidedown dip-slip (approximately 1.0 m) which reduces the strike-slip estimates by 1 to 2 m, especially along the northern half of the rupture. A spike in the strike-slip displacement of 6 m is observed in central part of the rupture. This large offset is confirmed by subpixel cross correlation of features in the before and after amplitude images. In addition to strike slip and dip slip, we identify uplift and subsidence along the fault, related to the restraining and releasing bends in the fault trace, respectively. Our main conclusion is that at least two look directions are required for accurate estimates of surface slip even along a pure strike-slip fault. Models and results based only on a single look direction could have major errors. Our new estimates of strike slip and dip slip along the rupture provide a boundary condition for dislocation modeling. A simple model, which has uniform slip to a depth of 12 km, shows good agreement with the observed ascending and descending interferograms.

Development of Fault Models for Hybrid Fault Detection and Diagnostics Algorithm: October 1, 2014 -- May 5, 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheung, Howard; Braun, James E.

This report describes models of building faults created for OpenStudio to support the ongoing development of fault detection and diagnostic (FDD) algorithms at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Building faults are operating abnormalities that degrade building performance, such as using more energy than normal operation, failing to maintain building temperatures according to the thermostat set points, etc. Models of building faults in OpenStudio can be used to estimate fault impacts on building performance and to develop and evaluate FDD algorithms. The aim of the project is to develop fault models of typical heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment inmore » the United States, and the fault models in this report are grouped as control faults, sensor faults, packaged and split air conditioner faults, water-cooled chiller faults, and other uncategorized faults. The control fault models simulate impacts of inappropriate thermostat control schemes such as an incorrect thermostat set point in unoccupied hours and manual changes of thermostat set point due to extreme outside temperature. Sensor fault models focus on the modeling of sensor biases including economizer relative humidity sensor bias, supply air temperature sensor bias, and water circuit temperature sensor bias. Packaged and split air conditioner fault models simulate refrigerant undercharging, condenser fouling, condenser fan motor efficiency degradation, non-condensable entrainment in refrigerant, and liquid line restriction. Other fault models that are uncategorized include duct fouling, excessive infiltration into the building, and blower and pump motor degradation.« less

Development of Fault Models for Hybrid Fault Detection and Diagnostics Algorithm: October 1, 2014 -- May 5, 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheung, Howard; Braun, James E.

2015-12-31

This report describes models of building faults created for OpenStudio to support the ongoing development of fault detection and diagnostic (FDD) algorithms at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Building faults are operating abnormalities that degrade building performance, such as using more energy than normal operation, failing to maintain building temperatures according to the thermostat set points, etc. Models of building faults in OpenStudio can be used to estimate fault impacts on building performance and to develop and evaluate FDD algorithms. The aim of the project is to develop fault models of typical heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment inmore » the United States, and the fault models in this report are grouped as control faults, sensor faults, packaged and split air conditioner faults, water-cooled chiller faults, and other uncategorized faults. The control fault models simulate impacts of inappropriate thermostat control schemes such as an incorrect thermostat set point in unoccupied hours and manual changes of thermostat set point due to extreme outside temperature. Sensor fault models focus on the modeling of sensor biases including economizer relative humidity sensor bias, supply air temperature sensor bias, and water circuit temperature sensor bias. Packaged and split air conditioner fault models simulate refrigerant undercharging, condenser fouling, condenser fan motor efficiency degradation, non-condensable entrainment in refrigerant, and liquid line restriction. Other fault models that are uncategorized include duct fouling, excessive infiltration into the building, and blower and pump motor degradation.« less

Bayesian estimation of source parameters and associated Coulomb failure stress changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rishabh; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Wang, Teng; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

2018-04-01

Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (Mw 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the main shock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

Care 3 phase 2 report, maintenance manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, L. A.; Stiffler, J. J.

1982-01-01

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems--systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. It substantially generalizes the class of redundant configurations that could be accommodated, and includes a coverage model to determine the various coverage probabilities as a function of the applicable fault recovery mechanisms (detection delay, diagnostic scheduling interval, isolation and recovery delay, etc.). CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc.

Attempting to bridge the gap between laboratory and seismic estimates of fracture energy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Beeler, N.M.

2004-01-01

To investigate the behavior of the fracture energy associated with expanding the rupture zone of an earthquake, we have used the results of a large-scale, biaxial stick-slip friction experiment to set the parameters of an equivalent dynamic rupture model. This model is determined by matching the fault slip, the static stress drop and the apparent stress. After confirming that the fracture energy associated with this model earthquake is in reasonable agreement with corresponding laboratory values, we can use it to determine fracture energies for earthquakes as functions of stress drop, rupture velocity and fault slip. If we take account of the state of stress at seismogenic depths, the model extrapolation to larger fault slips yields fracture energies that agree with independent estimates by others based on dynamic rupture models for large earthquakes. For fixed stress drop and rupture speed, the fracture energy scales linearly with fault slip.

Spatial modeling for estimation of earthquakes economic loss in West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retnowati, Dyah Ayu; Meilano, Irwan; Riqqi, Akhmad; Hanifa, Nuraini Rahma

2017-07-01

Indonesia has a high vulnerability towards earthquakes. The low adaptive capacity could make the earthquake become disaster that should be concerned. That is why risk management should be applied to reduce the impacts, such as estimating the economic loss caused by hazard. The study area of this research is West Java. The main reason of West Java being vulnerable toward earthquake is the existence of active faults. These active faults are Lembang Fault, Cimandiri Fault, Baribis Fault, and also Megathrust subduction zone. This research tries to estimates the value of earthquakes economic loss from some sources in West Java. The economic loss is calculated by using HAZUS method. The components that should be known are hazard (earthquakes), exposure (building), and the vulnerability. Spatial modeling is aimed to build the exposure data and make user get the information easier by showing the distribution map, not only in tabular data. As the result, West Java could have economic loss up to 1,925,122,301,868,140 IDR ± 364,683,058,851,703.00 IDR, which is estimated from six earthquake sources with maximum possibly magnitude. However, the estimation of economic loss value in this research is the worst case earthquakes occurrence which is probably over-estimated.

Optimum Sea Surface Displacement and Fault Slip Distribution of the 2017 Tehuantepec Earthquake (Mw 8.2) in Mexico Estimated From Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Mulia, Iyan E.; Satake, Kenji

2018-01-01

The 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake (Mw 8.2) was the first great normal fault event ever instrumentally recorded to occur in the Middle America Trench. The earthquake generated a tsunami with an amplitude of 1.8 m (height = 3.5 m) in Puerto Chiapas, Mexico. Tsunami waveforms recorded at coastal tide gauges and offshore buoy stations were used to estimate the optimum sea surface displacement without assuming any fault. Our optimum sea surface displacement model indicated that the maximum uplift of 0.5 m is located near the trench and the maximum subsidence of 0.8 m on the coastal side near the epicenter. We then estimated the fault slip distribution that can best explain the optimum sea surface displacement assuming 10 different fault geometries. The best model suggests that a compact region of large slip (3-6 m) extends from a depth of 30 km to 90 km, centered at a depth of 60 km.

A modified NARMAX model-based self-tuner with fault tolerance for unknown nonlinear stochastic hybrid systems with an input-output direct feed-through term.

PubMed

Tsai, Jason S-H; Hsu, Wen-Teng; Lin, Long-Guei; Guo, Shu-Mei; Tann, Joseph W

2014-01-01

A modified nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model-based state-space self-tuner with fault tolerance is proposed in this paper for the unknown nonlinear stochastic hybrid system with a direct transmission matrix from input to output. Through the off-line observer/Kalman filter identification method, one has a good initial guess of modified NARMAX model to reduce the on-line system identification process time. Then, based on the modified NARMAX-based system identification, a corresponding adaptive digital control scheme is presented for the unknown continuous-time nonlinear system, with an input-output direct transmission term, which also has measurement and system noises and inaccessible system states. Besides, an effective state space self-turner with fault tolerance scheme is presented for the unknown multivariable stochastic system. A quantitative criterion is suggested by comparing the innovation process error estimated by the Kalman filter estimation algorithm, so that a weighting matrix resetting technique by adjusting and resetting the covariance matrices of parameter estimate obtained by the Kalman filter estimation algorithm is utilized to achieve the parameter estimation for faulty system recovery. Consequently, the proposed method can effectively cope with partially abrupt and/or gradual system faults and input failures by the fault detection. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthetic Earthquake Statistics From Physical Fault Models for the Lower Rhine Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zöller, G.

2012-04-01

As of today, seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates they fail to provide a link between the observed seismicity and the underlying physical processes. Solving a state-of-the-art fully dynamic description set of all relevant physical processes related to earthquake fault systems is likely not useful since it comes with a large number of degrees of freedom, poor constraints on its model parameters and a huge computational effort. Here, quasi-static and quasi-dynamic physical fault simulators provide a compromise between physical completeness and computational affordability and aim at providing a link between basic physical concepts and statistics of seismicity. Within the framework of quasi-static and quasi-dynamic earthquake simulators we investigate a model of the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE) that is based upon seismological and geological data. We present and discuss statistics of the spatio-temporal behavior of generated synthetic earthquake catalogs with respect to simplification (e.g. simple two-fault cases) as well as to complication (e.g. hidden faults, geometric complexity, heterogeneities of constitutive parameters).

Estimating residual fault hitting rates by recapture sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Larry; Gupta, Rajan

1988-01-01

For the recapture debugging design introduced by Nayak (1988) the problem of estimating the hitting rates of the faults remaining in the system is considered. In the context of a conditional likelihood, moment estimators are derived and are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Fixed sample properties of the moment estimators are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators. Properties of the conditional model are investigated such as the asymptotic distribution of linear functions of the fault hitting frequencies and a representation of the full data vector in terms of a sequence of independent random vectors. It is assumed that the residual hitting rates follow a log linear rate model and that the testing process is truncated when the gaps between the detection of new errors exceed a fixed amount of time.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation and Bayesian Forecast for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, Shunichi; Ogata, Yosihiko

2016-04-01

We propose a Bayesian method of probability forecasting for recurrent earthquakes of inland active faults in Japan. Renewal processes with the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution are applied for over a half of active faults in Japan by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan. Long-term forecast with the BPT distribution needs two parameters; the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) for recurrence intervals. The HERP applies a common COV parameter for all of these faults because most of them have very few specified paleoseismic events, which is not enough to estimate reliable COV values for respective faults. However, different COV estimates are proposed for the same paleoseismic catalog by some related works. It can make critical difference in forecast to apply different COV estimates and so COV should be carefully selected for individual faults. Recurrence intervals on a fault are, on the average, determined by the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion but fluctuated by nearby seismicities which influence surrounding stress field. The COVs of recurrence intervals depend on such stress perturbation and so have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus we introduce a spatial structure on its COV parameter by Bayesian modeling with a Gaussian process prior. The COVs on active faults are correlated and take similar values for closely located faults. It is found that the spatial trends in the estimated COV values coincide with the density of active faults in Japan. We also show Bayesian forecasts by the proposed model using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our forecasts are different from HERP's forecast especially on the active faults where HERP's forecasts are very high or low.

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

2015-01-01

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

2016-01-01

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Source model and Coulomb stress change of 2017 Mw 6.5 Philippine (Ormoc) Earthquake revealed by SAR interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, M. C.; Hu, J. C.; Yang, Y. H.; Hashimoto, M.; Aurelio, M.; Su, Z.; Escudero, J. A.

2017-12-01

Multi-sight and high spatial resolution interferometric SAR data enhances our ability for mapping detailed coseismic deformation to estimate fault rupture model and to infer the Coulomb stress change associated with a big earthquake. Here, we use multi-sight coseismic interferograms acquired by ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1A satellites to estimate the fault geometry and slip distribution on the fault plane of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Ormoc Earthquake in Leyte island of Philippine. The best fitting model predicts that the coseismic rupture occurs along a fault plane with strike of 325.8º and dip of 78.5ºE. This model infers that the rupture of 2017 Ormoc earthquake is dominated by left-lateral slip with minor dip-slip motion, consistent with the left-lateral strike-slip Philippine fault system. The fault tip has propagated to the ground surface, and the predicted coseismic slip on the surface is about 1 m located at 6.5 km Northeast of Kananga city. Significant slip is concentrated on the fault patches at depth of 0-8 km and an along-strike distance of 20 km with varying slip magnitude from 0.3 m to 2.3 m along the southwest segment of this seismogenic fault. Two minor coseismic fault patches are predicted underneath of the Tononan geothermal field and the creeping segment of the northwest portion of this seismogenic fault. This implies that the high geothermal gradient underneath of the Tongonan geothermal filed could prevent heated rock mass from the coseismic failure. The seismic moment release of our preferred fault model is 7.78×1018 Nm, equivalent to Mw 6.6 event. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) calculated by the preferred fault model predicts significant positive CFS change on the northwest segment of the Philippine fault in Leyte Island which has coseismic slip deficit and is absent from aftershocks. Consequently, this segment should be considered to have increasing of risk for future seismic hazard.

Source parameters of the 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake and estimation of the near-fault strong ground motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Zhou, L.; Liu, J.

2013-12-01

Abstract: The April 20, 2013 Ms 7.0 earthquake in Lushan city, Sichuan province of China occurred as the result of east-west oriented reverse-type motion on a north-south striking fault. The source location suggests the event occurred on the Southern part of Longmenshan fault at a depth of 13km. The Lushan earthquake caused a great of loss of property and 196 deaths. The maximum intensity is up to VIII to IX at Boxing and Lushan city, which are located in the meizoseismal area. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic source process and calculated source spectral parameters, estimated the strong ground motion in the near-fault field based on the Brune's circle model at first. A dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed further to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties at Boxing and Lushan city, respectively. The results indicate that the frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Lushan earthquake, which is actually different from the overshoot activity of the Wenchuan earthquake. Based on the simulated results of the near-fault strong ground motion, described the intensity distribution of the Lushan earthquake field. The simulated intensity indicated that, the maximum intensity value is IX, and region with and above VII almost 16,000km2, which is consistence with observation intensity published online by China Earthquake Administration (CEA) on April 25. Moreover, the numerical modeling developed in this study has great application in the strong ground motion prediction and intensity estimation for the earthquake rescue purpose. In fact, the estimation methods based on the empirical relationship and numerical modeling developed in this study has great application in the strong ground motion prediction for the earthquake source process understand purpose. Keywords: Lushan, Ms7.0 earthquake; near-fault strong ground motion; DCSM; simulated intensity

Robust Fault Detection Using Robust Z1 Estimation and Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Tramone; Collins, Emmanuel G., Jr.; Selekwa, Majura; Guo, Ten-Huei (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This research considers the application of robust Z(sub 1), estimation in conjunction with fuzzy logic to robust fault detection for an aircraft fight control system. It begins with the development of robust Z(sub 1) estimators based on multiplier theory and then develops a fixed threshold approach to fault detection (FD). It then considers the use of fuzzy logic for robust residual evaluation and FD. Due to modeling errors and unmeasurable disturbances, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of an actual fault and those caused by uncertainty and disturbance. Hence, it is the aim of a robust FD system to be sensitive to faults while remaining insensitive to uncertainty and disturbances. While fixed thresholds only allow a decision on whether a fault has or has not occurred, it is more valuable to have the residual evaluation lead to a conclusion related to the degree of, or probability of, a fault. Fuzzy logic is a viable means of determining the degree of a fault and allows the introduction of human observations that may not be incorporated in the rigorous threshold theory. Hence, fuzzy logic can provide a more reliable and informative fault detection process. Using an aircraft flight control system, the results of FD using robust Z(sub 1) estimation with a fixed threshold are demonstrated. FD that combines robust Z(sub 1) estimation and fuzzy logic is also demonstrated. It is seen that combining the robust estimator with fuzzy logic proves to be advantageous in increasing the sensitivity to smaller faults while remaining insensitive to uncertainty and disturbances.

Synthetic velocity gradient map of the San Francisco Bay region, California, supports use of average block velocities to estimate fault slip rate where effective locking depth is small relative to inter-fault distance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graymer, R. W.; Simpson, R. W.

2014-12-01

Graymer and Simpson (2013, AGU Fall Meeting) showed that in a simple 2D multi-fault system (vertical, parallel, strike-slip faults bounding blocks without strong material property contrasts) slip rate on block-bounding faults can be reasonably estimated by the difference between the mean velocity of adjacent blocks if the ratio of the effective locking depth to the distance between the faults is 1/3 or less ("effective" locking depth is a synthetic parameter taking into account actual locking depth, fault creep, and material properties of the fault zone). To check the validity of that observation for a more complex 3D fault system and a realistic distribution of observation stations, we developed a synthetic suite of GPS velocities from a dislocation model, with station location and fault parameters based on the San Francisco Bay region. Initial results show that if the effective locking depth is set at the base of the seismogenic zone (about 12-15 km), about 1/2 the interfault distance, the resulting synthetic velocity observations, when clustered, do a poor job of returning the input fault slip rates. However, if the apparent locking depth is set at 1/2 the distance to the base of the seismogenic zone, or about 1/4 the interfault distance, the synthetic velocity field does a good job of returning the input slip rates except where the fault is in a strong restraining orientation relative to block motion or where block velocity is not well defined (for example west of the northern San Andreas Fault where there are no observations to the west in the ocean). The question remains as to where in the real world a low effective locking depth could usefully model fault behavior. Further tests are planned to define the conditions where average cluster-defined block velocities can be used to reliably estimate slip rates on block-bounding faults. These rates are an important ingredient in earthquake hazard estimation, and another tool to provide them should be useful.

An online outlier identification and removal scheme for improving fault detection performance.

PubMed

Ferdowsi, Hasan; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Zawodniok, Maciej

2014-05-01

Measured data or states for a nonlinear dynamic system is usually contaminated by outliers. Identifying and removing outliers will make the data (or system states) more trustworthy and reliable since outliers in the measured data (or states) can cause missed or false alarms during fault diagnosis. In addition, faults can make the system states nonstationary needing a novel analytical model-based fault detection (FD) framework. In this paper, an online outlier identification and removal (OIR) scheme is proposed for a nonlinear dynamic system. Since the dynamics of the system can experience unknown changes due to faults, traditional observer-based techniques cannot be used to remove the outliers. The OIR scheme uses a neural network (NN) to estimate the actual system states from measured system states involving outliers. With this method, the outlier detection is performed online at each time instant by finding the difference between the estimated and the measured states and comparing its median with its standard deviation over a moving time window. The NN weight update law in OIR is designed such that the detected outliers will have no effect on the state estimation, which is subsequently used for model-based fault diagnosis. In addition, since the OIR estimator cannot distinguish between the faulty or healthy operating conditions, a separate model-based observer is designed for fault diagnosis, which uses the OIR scheme as a preprocessing unit to improve the FD performance. The stability analysis of both OIR and fault diagnosis schemes are introduced. Finally, a three-tank benchmarking system and a simple linear system are used to verify the proposed scheme in simulations, and then the scheme is applied on an axial piston pump testbed. The scheme can be applied to nonlinear systems whose dynamics and underlying distribution of states are subjected to change due to both unknown faults and operating conditions.

Accounting for uncertain fault geometry in earthquake source inversions - I: theory and simplified application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragon, Théa; Sladen, Anthony; Simons, Mark

2018-05-01

The ill-posed nature of earthquake source estimation derives from several factors including the quality and quantity of available observations and the fidelity of our forward theory. Observational errors are usually accounted for in the inversion process. Epistemic errors, which stem from our simplified description of the forward problem, are rarely dealt with despite their potential to bias the estimate of a source model. In this study, we explore the impact of uncertainties related to the choice of a fault geometry in source inversion problems. The geometry of a fault structure is generally reduced to a set of parameters, such as position, strike and dip, for one or a few planar fault segments. While some of these parameters can be solved for, more often they are fixed to an uncertain value. We propose a practical framework to address this limitation by following a previously implemented method exploring the impact of uncertainties on the elastic properties of our models. We develop a sensitivity analysis to small perturbations of fault dip and position. The uncertainties in fault geometry are included in the inverse problem under the formulation of the misfit covariance matrix that combines both prediction and observation uncertainties. We validate this approach with the simplified case of a fault that extends infinitely along strike, using both Bayesian and optimization formulations of a static inversion. If epistemic errors are ignored, predictions are overconfident in the data and source parameters are not reliably estimated. In contrast, inclusion of uncertainties in fault geometry allows us to infer a robust posterior source model. Epistemic uncertainties can be many orders of magnitude larger than observational errors for great earthquakes (Mw > 8). Not accounting for uncertainties in fault geometry may partly explain observed shallow slip deficits for continental earthquakes. Similarly, ignoring the impact of epistemic errors can also bias estimates of near surface slip and predictions of tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes. (Mw > 8)

Robust dead reckoning system for mobile robots based on particle filter and raw range scan.

PubMed

Duan, Zhuohua; Cai, Zixing; Min, Huaqing

2014-09-04

Robust dead reckoning is a complicated problem for wheeled mobile robots (WMRs), where the robots are faulty, such as the sticking of sensors or the slippage of wheels, for the discrete fault models and the continuous states have to be estimated simultaneously to reach a reliable fault diagnosis and accurate dead reckoning. Particle filters are one of the most promising approaches to handle hybrid system estimation problems, and they have also been widely used in many WMRs applications, such as pose tracking, SLAM, video tracking, fault identification, etc. In this paper, the readings of a laser range finder, which may be also interfered with by noises, are used to reach accurate dead reckoning. The main contribution is that a systematic method to implement fault diagnosis and dead reckoning in a particle filter framework concurrently is proposed. Firstly, the perception model of a laser range finder is given, where the raw scan may be faulty. Secondly, the kinematics of the normal model and different fault models for WMRs are given. Thirdly, the particle filter for fault diagnosis and dead reckoning is discussed. At last, experiments and analyses are reported to show the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Robust Dead Reckoning System for Mobile Robots Based on Particle Filter and Raw Range Scan

PubMed Central

Duan, Zhuohua; Cai, Zixing; Min, Huaqing

2014-01-01

Robust dead reckoning is a complicated problem for wheeled mobile robots (WMRs), where the robots are faulty, such as the sticking of sensors or the slippage of wheels, for the discrete fault models and the continuous states have to be estimated simultaneously to reach a reliable fault diagnosis and accurate dead reckoning. Particle filters are one of the most promising approaches to handle hybrid system estimation problems, and they have also been widely used in many WMRs applications, such as pose tracking, SLAM, video tracking, fault identification, etc. In this paper, the readings of a laser range finder, which may be also interfered with by noises, are used to reach accurate dead reckoning. The main contribution is that a systematic method to implement fault diagnosis and dead reckoning in a particle filter framework concurrently is proposed. Firstly, the perception model of a laser range finder is given, where the raw scan may be faulty. Secondly, the kinematics of the normal model and different fault models for WMRs are given. Thirdly, the particle filter for fault diagnosis and dead reckoning is discussed. At last, experiments and analyses are reported to show the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method. PMID:25192318

Climate change and mountain-front morphology: Estimating Late Glacial to Holocene erosion rates from the shape of fault-bounded hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, G. E.; McCoy, S. W.; Whittaker, A. C.; Roberts, G.; Lancaster, S. T.; Phillips, R. J.

2011-12-01

The existence of well-preserved Holocene bedrock fault scarps along active normal faults in the Mediterranean region and elsewhere suggests a dramatic reduction in rates of rock weathering and erosion that correlates with the transition from glacial to interglacial climate. We test and quantify this interpretation using a case study in the Italian Central Apennines. Holocene rates are derived from measurements of weathering-pit depth along the Magnola scarp, where previous cosmogenic 36Cl analyses constrain exposure history. To estimate the average hillslope erosion rate over ˜105 years, we introduce a simple geometric model of normal-fault footwall slope evolution. The model predicts that the gradient of a weathering-limited footwall hillslope is set by fault dip angle and by the ratio of slip rate to erosion rate; if either slip or erosion rate is known, the other can be derived. Applying this model to the Magnola fault yields an estimated average weathering rate on the order of 0.2-0.4 mm/yr, more than 10x higher than either the Holocene scarp weathering rate or modern regional limestone weathering rates. A numerical model of footwall growth and erosion, in which erosion rate tracks the oxygen-isotope curve, reproduces the main features of hillslope and scarp morphology and suggests that the hillslope erosion rate has varied by about a factor of 30 over the past one to two glacial cycles. We conclude that preservation of carbonate fault scarps reflects strong climatic control on rock breakdown by frost cracking.

Use of fault striations and dislocation models to infer tectonic shear stress during the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, P.; Guatteri, Mariagiovanna; Otsuki, K.; Minagawa, J.

1998-01-01

Dislocation models of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake derived by Yoshida et al. (1996) show substantial changes in direction of slip with time at specific points on the Nojima and Rokko fault systems, as do striations we observed on exposures of the Nojima fault surface on Awaji Island. Spudich (1992) showed that the initial stress, that is, the shear traction on the fault before the earthquake origin time, can be derived at points on the fault where the slip rake rotates with time if slip velocity and stress change are known at these points. From Yoshida's slip model, we calculated dynamic stress changes on the ruptured fault surfaces. To estimate errors, we compared the slip velocities and dynamic stress changes of several published models of the earthquake. The differences between these models had an exponential distribution, not gaussian. We developed a Bayesian method to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of initial stress from the striations and from Yoshida's slip model. Striations near Toshima and Hirabayashi give initial stresses of about 13 and 7 MPa, respectively. We obtained initial stresses of about 7 to 17 MPa at depths of 2 to 10 km on a subset of points on the Nojima and Rokko fault systems. Our initial stresses and coseismic stress changes agree well with postearthquake stresses measured by hydrofracturing in deep boreholes near Hirabayashi and Ogura on Awaji Island. Our results indicate that the Nojima fault slipped at very low shear stress, and fractional stress drop was complete near the surface and about 32% below depths of 2 km. Our results at depth depend on the accuracy of the rake rotations in Yoshida's model, which are probably correct on the Nojima fault but debatable on the Rokko fault. Our results imply that curved or cross-cutting fault striations can be formed in a single earthquake, contradicting a common assumption of structural geology.

Model-based fault detection and isolation for intermittently active faults with application to motion-based thruster fault detection and isolation for spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Edward (Inventor)

2008-01-01

The present invention is a method for detecting and isolating fault modes in a system having a model describing its behavior and regularly sampled measurements. The models are used to calculate past and present deviations from measurements that would result with no faults present, as well as with one or more potential fault modes present. Algorithms that calculate and store these deviations, along with memory of when said faults, if present, would have an effect on the said actual measurements, are used to detect when a fault is present. Related algorithms are used to exonerate false fault modes and finally to isolate the true fault mode. This invention is presented with application to detection and isolation of thruster faults for a thruster-controlled spacecraft. As a supporting aspect of the invention, a novel, effective, and efficient filtering method for estimating the derivative of a noisy signal is presented.

NHPP-Based Software Reliability Models Using Equilibrium Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xiao; Okamura, Hiroyuki; Dohi, Tadashi

Non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs) have gained much popularity in actual software testing phases to estimate the software reliability, the number of remaining faults in software and the software release timing. In this paper, we propose a new modeling approach for the NHPP-based software reliability models (SRMs) to describe the stochastic behavior of software fault-detection processes. The fundamental idea is to apply the equilibrium distribution to the fault-detection time distribution in NHPP-based modeling. We also develop efficient parameter estimation procedures for the proposed NHPP-based SRMs. Through numerical experiments, it can be concluded that the proposed NHPP-based SRMs outperform the existing ones in many data sets from the perspective of goodness-of-fit and prediction performance.

Sensor fault diagnosis of singular delayed LPV systems with inexact parameters: an uncertain system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanabadi, Amir Hossein; Shafiee, Masoud; Puig, Vicenc

2018-01-01

In this paper, sensor fault diagnosis of a singular delayed linear parameter varying (LPV) system is considered. In the considered system, the model matrices are dependent on some parameters which are real-time measurable. The case of inexact parameter measurements is considered which is close to real situations. Fault diagnosis in this system is achieved via fault estimation. For this purpose, an augmented system is created by including sensor faults as additional system states. Then, an unknown input observer (UIO) is designed which estimates both the system states and the faults in the presence of measurement noise, disturbances and uncertainty induced by inexact measured parameters. Error dynamics and the original system constitute an uncertain system due to inconsistencies between real and measured values of the parameters. Then, the robust estimation of the system states and the faults are achieved with H∞ performance and formulated with a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The designed UIO is also applicable for fault diagnosis of singular delayed LPV systems with unmeasurable scheduling variables. The efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated with an example.

Deep heterogeneous structure of active faults in the Kinki region, southwest Japan: Inversion analysis of coda envelopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishigami, K.

2006-12-01

It is essential to estimate the deep structure of active faults related to the earthquake rupture process as well as the crustal structure related to the propagation of seismic waves, in order to improve the accuracy of estimating strong ground motion caused by future large inland earthquakes. In the Kinki region, southwest Japan, there are several active fault zones near large cities such as Osaka and Kyoto, and the evaluation of realistic strong ground motion is an important subject. We have been carrying out the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas, in the Kinki region for these purposes. In this presentation we will show the result of estimating the fault structure model of the Biwako-seigan, Hanaore, and Arima- Takatsuki fault zones. We estimated a 3-D distribution of relative scattering coefficients in the Kinki region, also in the vicinity of each active fault zone, by inversion of coda envelopes from local earthquakes. We analyzed 758 seismograms from 52 events which occurred in 2003, recorded at 50 stations of Kyoto Univ., Hi- net, and JMA. The preliminary result shows that active fault zones can be imaged as higher scattering than the surroundings. Based on previous studies of scattering properties in the crust, we consider that the relatively weaker scattering (namely more homogeneous) part on the fault plane may act as an asperity during future large earthquakes, and also that the part with relatively stronger scattering (namely more heterogeneous part) may become an initiation point of rupture. We are also studying the detailed distribution of microearthquakes, b-values, and velocity anomalies along these active fault zones. Combining these results, we will construct a possible fault model for each of the active fault zones. This study is sponsored by the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan.

A comparative injury severity analysis of motorcycle at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama.

PubMed

Islam, Samantha; Brown, Joshua

2017-11-01

The research described in this paper explored the factors contributing to the injury severity resulting from the motorcycle at-fault accidents in rural and urban areas in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a motorcycle at-fault crash, random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of fatal, major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The estimated models identified a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severities resulting from motorcycle at-fault crashes. According to these models, some variables were found to be significant only in one model (rural or urban) but not in the other one. For example, variables such as clear weather, young motorcyclists, and roadway without light were found significant only in the rural model. On the other hand, variables such as older female motorcyclists, horizontal curve and at intersection were found significant only in the urban model. In addition, some variables (such as, motorcyclists under influence of alcohol, non-usage of helmet, high speed roadways, etc.) were found significant in both models. Also, estimation findings showed that two parameters (clear weather and roadway without light) in the rural model and one parameter (on weekend) in the urban model could be modeled as random parameters indicating their varying influences on the injury severity due to unobserved effects. Based on the results obtained, this paper discusses the effects of different variables on injury severities resulting from rural and urban motorcycle at-fault crashes and their possible explanations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Latent component-based gear tooth fault detection filter using advanced parametric modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettefagh, M. M.; Sadeghi, M. H.; Rezaee, M.; Chitsaz, S.

2009-10-01

In this paper, a new parametric model-based filter is proposed for gear tooth fault detection. The designing of the filter consists of identifying the most proper latent component (LC) of the undamaged gearbox signal by analyzing the instant modules (IMs) and instant frequencies (IFs) and then using the component with lowest IM as the proposed filter output for detecting fault of the gearbox. The filter parameters are estimated by using the LC theory in which an advanced parametric modeling method has been implemented. The proposed method is applied on the signals, extracted from simulated gearbox for detection of the simulated gear faults. In addition, the method is used for quality inspection of the produced Nissan-Junior vehicle gearbox by gear profile error detection in an industrial test bed. For evaluation purpose, the proposed method is compared with the previous parametric TAR/AR-based filters in which the parametric model residual is considered as the filter output and also Yule-Walker and Kalman filter are implemented for estimating the parameters. The results confirm the high performance of the new proposed fault detection method.

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-08-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonilla, M.G.; Mark, R.K.; Lienkaemper, J.J.

1984-01-01

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which necessarily make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors. The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation with the variance resulting from measurement errors. Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are qrouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others. Subdivision of the data results in too few data for some fault types and regions, and for these only regressions using all of the data as a group are reported. Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating M with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement. Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of MS on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such zones.

Modeling of coulpled deformation and permeability evolution during fault reactivation induced by deep underground injection of CO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cappa, F.; Rutqvist, J.

2010-06-01

The interaction between mechanical deformation and fluid flow in fault zones gives rise to a host of coupled hydromechanical processes fundamental to fault instability, induced seismicity, and associated fluid migration. In this paper, we discuss these coupled processes in general and describe three modeling approaches that have been considered to analyze fluid flow and stress coupling in fault-instability processes. First, fault hydromechanical models were tested to investigate fault behavior using different mechanical modeling approaches, including slip interface and finite-thickness elements with isotropic or anisotropic elasto-plastic constitutive models. The results of this investigation showed that fault hydromechanical behavior can be appropriatelymore » represented with the least complex alternative, using a finite-thickness element and isotropic plasticity. We utilized this pragmatic approach coupled with a strain-permeability model to study hydromechanical effects on fault instability during deep underground injection of CO{sub 2}. We demonstrated how such a modeling approach can be applied to determine the likelihood of fault reactivation and to estimate the associated loss of CO{sub 2} from the injection zone. It is shown that shear-enhanced permeability initiated where the fault intersects the injection zone plays an important role in propagating fault instability and permeability enhancement through the overlying caprock.« less

Onboard Nonlinear Engine Sensor and Component Fault Diagnosis and Isolation Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; DeCastro, Jonathan A.; Zhang, Xiaodong

2011-01-01

A method detects and isolates in-flight sensor, actuator, and component faults for advanced propulsion systems. In sharp contrast to many conventional methods, which deal with either sensor fault or component fault, but not both, this method considers sensor fault, actuator fault, and component fault under one systemic and unified framework. The proposed solution consists of two main components: a bank of real-time, nonlinear adaptive fault diagnostic estimators for residual generation, and a residual evaluation module that includes adaptive thresholds and a Transferable Belief Model (TBM)-based residual evaluation scheme. By employing a nonlinear adaptive learning architecture, the developed approach is capable of directly dealing with nonlinear engine models and nonlinear faults without the need of linearization. Software modules have been developed and evaluated with the NASA C-MAPSS engine model. Several typical engine-fault modes, including a subset of sensor/actuator/components faults, were tested with a mild transient operation scenario. The simulation results demonstrated that the algorithm was able to successfully detect and isolate all simulated faults as long as the fault magnitudes were larger than the minimum detectable/isolable sizes, and no misdiagnosis occurred

Paleostresses estimated from calcite e-twins suggest a change during a seismic cycle: A case study of Yokonami mélange in Cretaceous Shimanto Belt of SW Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eida, M.; Hashimoto, Y.; Kanagawa, K.

2011-12-01

Paleostresses have been estimated by a stress inversion method in a tectonic mélange zone within an on-land accretionary complex. Paleostresses estimated throughout the Yokonami mélange zone, those estimated adjacent to a seismogenic fault at the northern edge of the mélange zone, and those estimated within calcite veins along minor faults have been compared. Yokonami mélange in the Cretaceous Shimanto Belt of SW Japan contains blocks of mainly sandstone with subordinate red shale, chert and basalt in shale matrix. Pseudotachylytes found along its northern boundary fault (the Goshikino-Hama fault) suggest that the fault was once a seismogenic fault. Minor faults are present throughout the Yokonami mélange and also adjacent to the Goshikino-Hama fault, and they clearly cut the mélange fabrics. Minor faults are commonly accompanied by calcite slicken fiber veins on which slicken steps are well developed. Pressures and temperatures during the minor faulting are estimated to be about 180 MPa and 200°C, respectively, on the basis of fluid inclusion thermometry. We have determined slip planes and directions of e-twinning in calcite veins, orientations of which were measured by using a universal stage. 829 data sets were obtained from 20 samples in the northern part of the Yokonami mélange. In addition, we obtained slip-data from minor faults throughout the Yokonami mélange as well as from those adjacent to the seismogenic Goshikino-hama fault. We then used HIM (Hough inversion method) by Yamaji et al. (2006), an inversion method to estimate the orientation and ratio of paleostress from fault slip data, where the stress ratio Φ is defined as (σ2 - σ3 ) / (σ1 - σ3 ). Calcite e-twin data yield two different sets of paleostress; a vertical axial compression with Φ = 0.0446 and an axial extension with Φ = 0.9125. Minor faults adjacent to the Goshikino-Hama fault also yield two sets of paleostress; a vertical axial compression and an axial extension with Φ = 0.1029 and 0.8111, respectively. In contrast, minor faults throughout the Yokonami mélange yield a triaxial paleostress with Φ = 0.6071 and horizontal σ1 in the NW direction. Thus the paleostresses estimated from calcite e-twins are consistent with those estimated from minor faults adjacent to the seismogenic Goshikino-Hama fault, but not with those estimated from minor faults throughout the Yokonami mélange not only in orientations but also in stress ratio. This suggests that a change in stress state occurred in the Yokonami mélange after calcite vein filling, and also that the stress change corresponds to a change in faulting from interseismic faulting in Yokonami mélange to seismic faulting along the Goshikino-Hama fault, as inferred from the dynamic coulomb wedge model by Wang and Hu (2006).

A testing-coverage software reliability model considering fault removal efficiency and error generation.

PubMed

Li, Qiuying; Pham, Hoang

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a software reliability model that considers not only error generation but also fault removal efficiency combined with testing coverage information based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). During the past four decades, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) based on NHPP have been proposed to estimate the software reliability measures, most of which have the same following agreements: 1) it is a common phenomenon that during the testing phase, the fault detection rate always changes; 2) as a result of imperfect debugging, fault removal has been related to a fault re-introduction rate. But there are few SRGMs in the literature that differentiate between fault detection and fault removal, i.e. they seldom consider the imperfect fault removal efficiency. But in practical software developing process, fault removal efficiency cannot always be perfect, i.e. the failures detected might not be removed completely and the original faults might still exist and new faults might be introduced meanwhile, which is referred to as imperfect debugging phenomenon. In this study, a model aiming to incorporate fault introduction rate, fault removal efficiency and testing coverage into software reliability evaluation is developed, using testing coverage to express the fault detection rate and using fault removal efficiency to consider the fault repair. We compare the performance of the proposed model with several existing NHPP SRGMs using three sets of real failure data based on five criteria. The results exhibit that the model can give a better fitting and predictive performance.

Mechanics of slip and fracture along small faults and simple strike-slip fault zones in granitic rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Stephen J.; Pollard, David D.

1989-07-01

We exploit quasi-static fracture mechanics models for slip along pre-existing faults to account for the fracture structure observed along small exhumed faults and small segmented fault zones in the Mount Abbot quadrangle of California and to estimate stress drop and shear fracture energy from geological field measurements. Along small strike-slip faults, cracks that splay from the faults are common only near fault ends. In contrast, many cracks splay from the boundary faults at the edges of a simple fault zone. Except near segment ends, the cracks preferentially splay into a zone. We infer that shear displacement discontinuities (slip patches) along a small fault propagated to near the fault ends and caused fracturing there. Based on elastic stress analyses, we suggest that slip on one boundary fault triggered slip on the adjacent boundary fault, and that the subsequent interaction of the slip patches preferentially led to the generation of fractures that splayed into the zones away from segment ends and out of the zones near segment ends. We estimate the average stress drops for slip events along the fault zones as ˜1 MPa and the shear fracture energy release rate during slip as 5 × 102 - 2 × 104 J/m2. This estimate is similar to those obtained from shear fracture of laboratory samples, but orders of magnitude less than those for large fault zones. These results suggest that the shear fracture energy release rate increases as the structural complexity of fault zones increases.

A stochastic automata network for earthquake simulation and hazard estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belubekian, Maya Ernest

1998-11-01

This research develops a model for simulation of earthquakes on seismic faults with available earthquake catalog data. The model allows estimation of the seismic hazard at a site of interest and assessment of the potential damage and loss in a region. There are two approaches for studying the earthquakes: mechanistic and stochastic. In the mechanistic approach, seismic processes, such as changes in stress or slip on faults, are studied in detail. In the stochastic approach, earthquake occurrences are simulated as realizations of a certain stochastic process. In this dissertation, a stochastic earthquake occurrence model is developed that uses the results from dislocation theory for the estimation of slip released in earthquakes. The slip accumulation and release laws and the event scheduling mechanism adopted in the model result in a memoryless Poisson process for the small and moderate events and in a time- and space-dependent process for large events. The minimum and maximum of the hazard are estimated by the model when the initial conditions along the faults correspond to a situation right after a largest event and after a long seismic gap, respectively. These estimates are compared with the ones obtained from a Poisson model. The Poisson model overestimates the hazard after the maximum event and underestimates it in the period of a long seismic quiescence. The earthquake occurrence model is formulated as a stochastic automata network. Each fault is divided into cells, or automata, that interact by means of information exchange. The model uses a statistical method called bootstrap for the evaluation of the confidence bounds on its results. The parameters of the model are adjusted to the target magnitude patterns obtained from the catalog. A case study is presented for the city of Palo Alto, where the hazard is controlled by the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults. The results of the model are used to evaluate the damage and loss distribution in Palo Alto. The sensitivity analysis of the model results to the variation in basic parameters shows that the maximum magnitude has the most significant impact on the hazard, especially for long forecast periods.

Fault geometry and cumulative offsets in the central Coast Ranges, California: Evidence for northward increasing slip along the San Gregorio-San Simeon-Hosgri fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Jachens, R.C.; Graymer, R.W.; Colgan, J.P.; Wentworth, C.M.; Stanley, R.G.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the dip, depth extent, and amount of cumulative displacement along the major faults in the central California Coast Ranges are controversial. We use detailed aeromagnetic data to estimate these parameters for the San Gregorio–San Simeon–Hosgri and other faults. The recently acquired aeromagnetic data provide an areally consistent data set that crosses the onshore-offshore transition without disruption, which is particularly important for the mostly offshore San Gregorio–San Simeon–Hosgri fault. Our modeling, constrained by exposed geology and in some cases, drill-hole and seismic-reflection data, indicates that the San Gregorio–San Simeon–Hosgri and Reliz-Rinconada faults dip steeply throughout the seismogenic crust. Deviations from steep dips may result from local fault interactions, transfer of slip between faults, or overprinting by transpression since the late Miocene. Given that such faults are consistent with predominantly strike-slip displacement, we correlate geophysical anomalies offset by these faults to estimate cumulative displacements. We find a northward increase in right-lateral displacement along the San Gregorio–San Simeon–Hosgri fault that is mimicked by Quaternary slip rates. Although overall slip rates have decreased over the lifetime of the fault, the pattern of slip has not changed. Northward increase in right-lateral displacement is balanced in part by slip added by faults, such as the Reliz-Rinconada, Oceanic–West Huasna, and (speculatively) Santa Ynez River faults to the east.

Comparison of maximum runup through analytical and numerical approaches for different fault parameters estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanoglu, U.; Wronna, M.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2017-12-01

The one-dimensional analytical runup theory in combination with near shore synthetic waveforms is a promising tool for tsunami rapid early warning systems. Its application in realistic cases with complex bathymetry and initial wave condition from inverse modelling have shown that maximum runup values can be estimated reasonably well. In this study we generate a simplistic bathymetry domains which resemble realistic near-shore features. We investigate the accuracy of the analytical runup formulae to the variation of fault source parameters and near-shore bathymetric features. To do this we systematically vary the fault plane parameters to compute the initial tsunami wave condition. Subsequently, we use the initial conditions to run the numerical tsunami model using coupled system of four nested grids and compare the results to the analytical estimates. Variation of the dip angle of the fault plane showed that analytical estimates have less than 10% difference for angles 5-45 degrees in a simple bathymetric domain. These results shows that the use of analytical formulae for fast run up estimates constitutes a very promising approach in a simple bathymetric domain and might be implemented in Hazard Mapping and Early Warning.

Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Gomberg, Joan S.

2015-01-01

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.

Sensor Fault Detection and Diagnosis Simulation of a Helicopter Engine in an Intelligent Control Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan; Kurtkaya, Mehmet; Duyar, Ahmet

1994-01-01

This paper presents an application of a fault detection and diagnosis scheme for the sensor faults of a helicopter engine. The scheme utilizes a model-based approach with real time identification and hypothesis testing which can provide early detection, isolation, and diagnosis of failures. It is an integral part of a proposed intelligent control system with health monitoring capabilities. The intelligent control system will allow for accommodation of faults, reduce maintenance cost, and increase system availability. The scheme compares the measured outputs of the engine with the expected outputs of an engine whose sensor suite is functioning normally. If the differences between the real and expected outputs exceed threshold values, a fault is detected. The isolation of sensor failures is accomplished through a fault parameter isolation technique where parameters which model the faulty process are calculated on-line with a real-time multivariable parameter estimation algorithm. The fault parameters and their patterns can then be analyzed for diagnostic and accommodation purposes. The scheme is applied to the detection and diagnosis of sensor faults of a T700 turboshaft engine. Sensor failures are induced in a T700 nonlinear performance simulation and data obtained are used with the scheme to detect, isolate, and estimate the magnitude of the faults.

Interseismic strain accumulation across the Ashkabad fault (NE Iran) from MERIS-corrected ASAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walters, R. J.; Elliott, J. R.; Li, Z.; Parsons, B. E.

2011-12-01

The right-lateral Ashkabad Fault separates deforming NE Iran from the stable Turkmenistan platform to the north, and also facilitates the north-westwards extrusion of the South Caspian block (along with the left-lateral Shahrud fault zone). The fault represents the northernmost boundary of significant deformation of the Arabia-Eurasia collision in NE Iran. The 1948 M 7.3 Ashkabad earthquake, which killed around 110,000 people and was the deadliest earthquake to hit Europe or the Middle East in the 20th Century, also possibly occurred on this fault. However, the slip rate and therefore the seismic hazard that the Ashkabad fault represents are not well known. GPS data in NE Iran are sparse, and there are no direct geological or quaternary rates for the main strand of the fault. We use Envisat ASAR data acquired between 2003 and 2010 to measure interseismic strain accumulation across the fault, and hence estimate the slip rate across it. Due to the proximity of this region to the Caspian Sea and the presence of highly variable weather systems, we use data from Envisat's Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) instrument, as well as modelled weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), to correct interferograms for differences in water vapour and atmospheric pressure. We mitigate the effects of remaining noise by summing the 13 corrected interferograms that cover the fault, effectively creating a 30 year interferogram with improved signal-to-noise ratio, and we empirically correct for orbital errors. Our measurements of rates of displacement are consistent with an interseismic model for the Ashkabad fault where deformation occurs at depth on a narrow shear zone below a layer in which the fault is locked. We invert the data to solve for best fitting model parameters, estimating both the slip rate and the depth to which the fault is locked. Our measurements show that the Ashkabad fault is accumulating strain at a rate of 9 mm/yr below a locking depth of 15 km. We use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the errors on our best fit solution and find our data is consistent with 6-12 mm/yr slip rate and 8-25 km locking depth. Using an alternative jacknife approach we obtain ranges of 4-11 mm/yr and 9-18 km. Lyberis and Manby (1999, AAPG Bulletin 83: 1135-1160) proposed a slip rate of 3-8 mm/yr for the Ashkabad fault, based on an estimated offset and a likely age of onset for the fault. Masson et al. (2007, GJI 170:436-440) estimated a slip rate of 2-4 mm/yr from GPS data. Our best fit solution is higher, but within error our results are compatible with both of these previous estimates. In addition, GPS data from an unpublished PhD Thesis (Tavakoli, 2007, PhD Thesis, LGIT Grenoble) suggest slip rates of around 9 mm/yr, supporting our best fit slip rate.

On-Board Real-Time State and Fault Identification for Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Washington, Richard

2000-01-01

For extended autonomous operation, rovers must identify potential faults to determine whether its execution needs to be halted or not. At the same time, rovers present particular challenges for state estimation techniques: they are subject to environmental influences that affect senior readings during normal and anomalous operation, and the sensors fluctuate rapidly both because of noise and because of the dynamics of the rover's interaction with its environment. This paper presents MAKSI, an on-board method for state estimation and fault diagnosis that is particularly appropriate for rovers. The method is based on a combination of continuous state estimation, wing Kalman filters, and discrete state estimation, wing a Markov-model representation.

Using the 3D active fault model to estimate the surface deformation, a study on HsinChu area, Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. K.; Ke, M. C.; Ke, S. S.

2016-12-01

An active fault is commonly considered to be active if they have moved one or more times in the last 10,000 years and likely to have another earthquake sometime in the future. The relationship between the fault reactivation and the surface deformation after the Chi-Chi earthquake (M=7.2) in 1999 has been concerned up to now. According to the investigations of well-known disastrous earthquakes in recent years, indicated that surface deformation is controlled by the 3D fault geometric shape. Because the surface deformation may cause dangerous damage to critical infrastructures, buildings, roads, power, water and gas lines etc. Therefore it's very important to make pre-disaster risk assessment via the 3D active fault model to decrease serious economic losses, people injuries and deaths caused by large earthquake. The approaches to build up the 3D active fault model can be categorized as (1) field investigation (2) digitized profile data and (3) build the 3D modeling. In this research, we tracked the location of the fault scarp in the field first, then combined the seismic profiles (had been balanced) and historical earthquake data to build the underground fault plane model by using SKUA-GOCAD program. Finally compared the results come from trishear model (written by Richard W. Allmendinger, 2012) and PFC-3D program (Itasca) and got the calculated range of the deformation area. By analysis of the surface deformation area made from Hsin-Chu Fault, we concluded the result the damage zone is approaching 68 286m, the magnitude is 6.43, the offset is 0.6m. base on that to estimate the population casualties, building damage by the M=6.43 earthquake in Hsin-Chu area, Taiwan. In the future, in order to be applied accurately on earthquake disaster prevention, we need to consider further the groundwater effect and the soil structure interaction inducing by faulting.

Methodologies for Adaptive Flight Envelope Estimation and Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; Roemer, Michael; Ge, Jianhua; Crassidis, Agamemnon; Prasad, J. V. R.; Belcastro, Christine

2009-01-01

This paper reports the latest development of several techniques for adaptive flight envelope estimation and protection system for aircraft under damage upset conditions. Through the integration of advanced fault detection algorithms, real-time system identification of the damage/faulted aircraft and flight envelop estimation, real-time decision support can be executed autonomously for improving damage tolerance and flight recoverability. Particularly, a bank of adaptive nonlinear fault detection and isolation estimators were developed for flight control actuator faults; a real-time system identification method was developed for assessing the dynamics and performance limitation of impaired aircraft; online learning neural networks were used to approximate selected aircraft dynamics which were then inverted to estimate command margins. As off-line training of network weights is not required, the method has the advantage of adapting to varying flight conditions and different vehicle configurations. The key benefit of the envelope estimation and protection system is that it allows the aircraft to fly close to its limit boundary by constantly updating the controller command limits during flight. The developed techniques were demonstrated on NASA s Generic Transport Model (GTM) simulation environments with simulated actuator faults. Simulation results and remarks on future work are presented.

Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonilla, Manuel G.; Mark, Robert K.; Lienkaemper, James J.

1984-01-01

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors.The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation in which the variance results primarily from measurement errors.Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are grouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others.Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating Ms with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement.Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of Ms on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such zones.

A testing-coverage software reliability model considering fault removal efficiency and error generation

PubMed Central

Li, Qiuying; Pham, Hoang

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose a software reliability model that considers not only error generation but also fault removal efficiency combined with testing coverage information based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). During the past four decades, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) based on NHPP have been proposed to estimate the software reliability measures, most of which have the same following agreements: 1) it is a common phenomenon that during the testing phase, the fault detection rate always changes; 2) as a result of imperfect debugging, fault removal has been related to a fault re-introduction rate. But there are few SRGMs in the literature that differentiate between fault detection and fault removal, i.e. they seldom consider the imperfect fault removal efficiency. But in practical software developing process, fault removal efficiency cannot always be perfect, i.e. the failures detected might not be removed completely and the original faults might still exist and new faults might be introduced meanwhile, which is referred to as imperfect debugging phenomenon. In this study, a model aiming to incorporate fault introduction rate, fault removal efficiency and testing coverage into software reliability evaluation is developed, using testing coverage to express the fault detection rate and using fault removal efficiency to consider the fault repair. We compare the performance of the proposed model with several existing NHPP SRGMs using three sets of real failure data based on five criteria. The results exhibit that the model can give a better fitting and predictive performance. PMID:28750091

Slip rates on San Francisco Bay area faults from anelastic deformation of the continental lithosphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Andrews, D.J.

2000-01-01

Long-term slip rates on major faults in the San Francisco Bay area are predicted by modeling the anelastic deformation of the continental lithosphere in response to regional relative plate motion. The model developed by Bird and Kong [1994] is used to simulate lithospheric deformation according to a Coulomb frictional rheology of the upper crust and a dislocation creep rheology at depth. The focus of this study is the long-term motion of faults in a region extending from the creeping section of the San Andreas fault to the south up to the latitude of Cape Mendocino to the north. Boundary conditions are specified by the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra Nevada - Great Valley microplate [Argus and Gordon, 2000]. Rheologic-frictional parameters are specified as independent variables, and prediction errors are calculated with respect to geologic estimates of slip rates and maximum compressive stress directions. The model that best explains the region-wide observations is one in which the coefficient of friction on all of the major faults is less than 0.15, with the coefficient of friction for the San Andreas fault being approximately 0.09, consistent with previous inferences of San Andreas fault friction. Prediction error increases with lower fault friction on the San Andreas, indicating a lower bound of ??SAF > 0.08. Discrepancies with respect to previous slip rate estimates include a higher than expected slip rate along the peninsula segment of the San Andreas fault and a slightly lower than expected slip rate along the San Gregorio fault.

Fault model of the M7.1 intraslab earthquake on April 7 following the 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake (M9.0) estimated by the dense GPS network data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miura, S.; Ohta, Y.; Ohzono, M.; Kita, S.; Iinuma, T.; Demachi, T.; Tachibana, K.; Nakayama, T.; Hirahara, S.; Suzuki, S.; Sato, T.; Uchida, N.; Hasegawa, A.; Umino, N.

2011-12-01

We propose a source fault model of the large intraslab earthquake with M7.1 deduced from a dense GPS network. The coseismic displacements obtained by GPS data analysis clearly show the spatial pattern specific to intraslab earthquakes not only in the horizontal components but also the vertical ones. A rectangular fault with uniform slip was estimated by a non-linear inversion approach. The results indicate that the simple rectangular fault model can explain the overall features of the observations. The amount of moment released is equivalent to Mw 7.17. The hypocenter depth of the main shock estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency is slightly deeper than the neutral plane between down-dip compression (DC) and down-dip extension (DE) stress zones of the double-planed seismic zone. This suggests that the depth of the neutral plane was deepened by the huge slip of the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake, and the rupture of the thrust M7.1 earthquake was initiated at that depth, although more investigations are required to confirm this idea. The estimated fault plane has an angle of ~60 degrees from the surface of subducting Pacific plate. It is consistent with the hypothesis that intraslab earthquakes are thought to be reactivation of the preexisting hydrated weak zones made in bending process of oceanic plates around outer-rise regions.

Implementation of an Integrated On-Board Aircraft Engine Diagnostic Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armstrong, Jeffrey B.; Simon, Donald L.

2012-01-01

An on-board diagnostic architecture for aircraft turbofan engine performance trending, parameter estimation, and gas-path fault detection and isolation has been developed and evaluated in a simulation environment. The architecture incorporates two independent models: a realtime self-tuning performance model providing parameter estimates and a performance baseline model for diagnostic purposes reflecting long-term engine degradation trends. This architecture was evaluated using flight profiles generated from a nonlinear model with realistic fleet engine health degradation distributions and sensor noise. The architecture was found to produce acceptable estimates of engine health and unmeasured parameters, and the integrated diagnostic algorithms were able to perform correct fault isolation in approximately 70 percent of the tested cases

Recent Improvements to the Finite-Fault Rupture Detector Algorithm: FinDer II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.

2015-12-01

Constraining the finite-fault rupture extent and azimuth is crucial for accurately estimating ground-motion in large earthquakes. Detecting and modeling finite-fault ruptures in real-time is thus essential to both earthquake early warning (EEW) and rapid emergency response. Following extensive real-time and offline testing, the finite-fault rupture detector algorithm, FinDer (Böse et al., 2012 & 2015), was successfully integrated into the California-wide ShakeAlert EEW demonstration system. Since April 2015, FinDer has been scanning real-time waveform data from approximately 420 strong-motion stations in California for peak ground acceleration (PGA) patterns indicative of earthquakes. FinDer analyzes strong-motion data by comparing spatial images of observed PGA with theoretical templates modeled from empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). If the correlation between the observed and theoretical PGA is sufficiently high, a report is sent to ShakeAlert including the estimated centroid position, length, and strike, and their uncertainties, of an ongoing fault rupture. Rupture estimates are continuously updated as new data arrives. As part of a joint effort between USGS Menlo Park, ETH Zurich, and Caltech, we have rewritten FinDer in C++ to obtain a faster and more flexible implementation. One new feature of FinDer II is that multiple contour lines of high-frequency PGA are computed and correlated with templates, allowing the detection of both large earthquakes and much smaller (~ M3.5) events shortly after their nucleation. Unlike previous EEW algorithms, FinDer II thus provides a modeling approach for both small-magnitude point-source and larger-magnitude finite-fault ruptures with consistent error estimates for the entire event magnitude range.

Experiments in fault tolerant software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcallister, David F.; Tai, K. C.; Vouk, Mladen A.

1987-01-01

The reliability of voting was evaluated in a fault-tolerant software system for small output spaces. The effectiveness of the back-to-back testing process was investigated. Version 3.0 of the RSDIMU-ATS, a semi-automated test bed for certification testing of RSDIMU software, was prepared and distributed. Software reliability estimation methods based on non-random sampling are being studied. The investigation of existing fault-tolerance models was continued and formulation of new models was initiated.

Estimation of spectral kurtosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutawanir

2017-03-01

Rolling bearings are the most important elements in rotating machinery. Bearing frequently fall out of service for various reasons: heavy loads, unsuitable lubrications, ineffective sealing. Bearing faults may cause a decrease in performance. Analysis of bearing vibration signals has attracted attention in the field of monitoring and fault diagnosis. Bearing vibration signals give rich information for early detection of bearing failures. Spectral kurtosis, SK, is a parameter in frequency domain indicating how the impulsiveness of a signal varies with frequency. Faults in rolling bearings give rise to a series of short impulse responses as the rolling elements strike faults, SK potentially useful for determining frequency bands dominated by bearing fault signals. SK can provide a measure of the distance of the analyzed bearings from a healthy one. SK provides additional information given by the power spectral density (psd). This paper aims to explore the estimation of spectral kurtosis using short time Fourier transform known as spectrogram. The estimation of SK is similar to the estimation of psd. The estimation falls in model-free estimation and plug-in estimator. Some numerical studies using simulations are discussed to support the methodology. Spectral kurtosis of some stationary signals are analytically obtained and used in simulation study. Kurtosis of time domain has been a popular tool for detecting non-normality. Spectral kurtosis is an extension of kurtosis in frequency domain. The relationship between time domain and frequency domain analysis is establish through power spectrum-autocovariance Fourier transform. Fourier transform is the main tool for estimation in frequency domain. The power spectral density is estimated through periodogram. In this paper, the short time Fourier transform of the spectral kurtosis is reviewed, a bearing fault (inner ring and outer ring) is simulated. The bearing response, power spectrum, and spectral kurtosis are plotted to visualize the pattern of each fault. Keywords: frequency domain Fourier transform, spectral kurtosis, bearing fault

Estimation of fault geometry of a slow slip event off the Kii Peninsula, southwest of Japan, detected by DONET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, K.; Nakano, M.; Hori, T.; Takahashi, N.

2015-12-01

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology installed permanent ocean bottom observation network called Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) off the Kii Peninsula, southwest of Japan, to monitor earthquakes and tsunamis. We detected the long-term vertical displacements of sea floor from the ocean-bottom pressure records, starting from March 2013, at several DONET stations (Suzuki et al., 2014). We consider that these displacements were caused by the crustal deformation due to a slow slip event (SSE). 　We estimated the fault geometry of the SSE by using the observed ocean-bottom displacements. The ocean-bottom displacements were obtained by removing the tidal components from the pressure records. We also subtracted the average of pressure changes taken over the records at stations connected to each science node from each record in order to remove the contributions due to atmospheric pressure changes and non-tidal ocean dynamic mass variations. Therefore we compared observed displacements with the theoretical ones that was subtracted the average displacement in the fault geometry estimation. We also compared observed and theoretical average displacements for the model evaluation. In this study, the observed average displacements were assumed to be zero. Although there are nine parameters in the fault model, we observed vertical displacements at only four stations. Therefore we assumed three fault geometries; (1) a reverse fault slip along the plate boundary, (2) a strike slip along a splay fault, and (3) a reverse fault slip along the splay fault. We obtained that the model (3) gives the smallest residual between observed and calculated displacements. We also observed that this SSE was synchronized with a decrease in the background seismicity within the area of a nearby earthquake cluster. In the future, we will investigate the relationship between the SSE and the seismicity change.

SAR-revealed slip partitioning on a bending fault plane for the 2014 Northern Nagano earthquake at the northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Tomokazu; Morishita, Yu; Yarai, Hiroshi

2018-05-01

By applying conventional cross-track synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) and multiple aperture InSAR techniques to ALOS-2 data acquired before and after the 2014 Northern Nagano, central Japan, earthquake, a three-dimensional ground displacement field has been successfully mapped. Crustal deformation is concentrated in and around the northern part of the Kamishiro Fault, which is the northernmost section of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line. The full picture of the displacement field shows contraction in the northwest-southeast direction, but northeastward movement along the fault strike direction is prevalent in the northeast portion of the fault, which suggests that a strike-slip component is a significant part of the activity of this fault, in addition to a reverse faulting. Clear displacement discontinuities are recognized in the southern part of the source region, which falls just on the previously known Kamishiro Fault trace. We inverted the SAR and GNSS data to construct a slip distribution model; the preferred model of distributed slip on a two-plane fault surface shows a combination of reverse and left-lateral fault motions on a bending east-dipping fault surface with a dip of 30° in the shallow part and 50° in the deeper part. The hypocenter falls just on the estimated deeper fault plane where a left-lateral slip is inferred, whereas in the shallow part, a reverse slip is predominant, which causes surface ruptures on the ground. The slip partitioning may be accounted for by shear stress resulting from a reverse fault slip with left-lateral component at depth, for which a left-lateral slip is suppressed in the shallow part where the reverse slip is inferred. The slip distribution model with a bending fault surface, instead of a single fault plane, produces moment tensor solution with a non-double couple component, which is consistent with the seismically estimated mechanism.

Model-Based Fault Tolerant Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Aditya; Viassolo, Daniel

2008-01-01

The Model Based Fault Tolerant Control (MBFTC) task was conducted under the NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goal of MBFTC is to develop and demonstrate real-time strategies to diagnose and accommodate anomalous aircraft engine events such as sensor faults, actuator faults, or turbine gas-path component damage that can lead to in-flight shutdowns, aborted take offs, asymmetric thrust/loss of thrust control, or engine surge/stall events. A suite of model-based fault detection algorithms were developed and evaluated. Based on the performance and maturity of the developed algorithms two approaches were selected for further analysis: (i) multiple-hypothesis testing, and (ii) neural networks; both used residuals from an Extended Kalman Filter to detect the occurrence of the selected faults. A simple fusion algorithm was implemented to combine the results from each algorithm to obtain an overall estimate of the identified fault type and magnitude. The identification of the fault type and magnitude enabled the use of an online fault accommodation strategy to correct for the adverse impact of these faults on engine operability thereby enabling continued engine operation in the presence of these faults. The performance of the fault detection and accommodation algorithm was extensively tested in a simulation environment.

Assessing the impact of Syrian refugees on earthquake fatality estimations in southeast Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Bradley; Paradise, Thomas

2018-01-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into local cities, towns, and villages - placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong earthquake shaking. Yet displaced populations are often unaccounted for in the census-based population models used in earthquake fatality estimations. This study creates a minimally modeled refugee gridded population model and analyzes its impact on semi-empirical fatality estimations across southeast Turkey. Daytime and nighttime fatality estimates were produced for five fault segments at earthquake magnitudes 5.8, 6.4, and 7.0. Baseline fatality estimates calculated from census-based population estimates for the study area varied in scale from tens to thousands of fatalities, with higher death totals in nighttime scenarios. Refugee fatality estimations were analyzed across 500 semi-random building occupancy distributions. Median fatality estimates for refugee populations added non-negligible contributions to earthquake fatalities at four of five fault locations, increasing total fatality estimates by 7-27 %. These findings communicate the necessity of incorporating refugee statistics into earthquake fatality estimations in southeast Turkey and the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context.

Variations in creep rate along the Hayward Fault, California, interpreted as changes in depth of creep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, R.W.; Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.

2001-01-01

Variations ill surface creep rate along the Hayward fault are modeled as changes in locking depth using 3D boundary elements. Model creep is driven by screw dislocations at 12 km depth under the Hayward and other regional faults. Inferred depth to locking varies along strike from 4-12 km. (12 km implies no locking.) Our models require locked patches under the central Hayward fault, consistent with a M6.8 earthquake in 1868, but the geometry and extent of locking under the north and south ends depend critically on assumptions regarding continuity and creep behavior of the fault at its ends. For the northern onshore part of the fault, our models contain 1.4-1.7 times more stored moment than the model of Bu??rgmann et al. [2000]; 45-57% of this stored moment resides in creeping areas. It is important for seismic hazard estimation to know how much of this moment is released coseismically or as aseismic afterslip.

Estimation of vertical slip rate in an active fault-propagation fold from the analysis of a progressive unconformity at the NE segment of the Carrascoy Fault (SE Iberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Banda, Raquel; Insua-Arevalo, Juan Miguel; Garcia-Mayordomo, Julian

2017-04-01

Many studies have dealt with the calculation of fault-propagation fold growth rates considering a variety of kinematics models, from limb rotation to hinge migration models. In most cases, the different geometrical and numeric growth models are based on horizontal pre-growth strata architecture and a constant known slip rate. Here, we present the estimation of the vertical slip rate of the NE Segment of the Carrascoy Fault (SE Iberian Peninsula) from the geometrical modeling of a progressive unconformity developed on alluvial fan sediments with a high depositional slope. The NE Segment of the Carrascoy Fault is a left-lateral strike slip fault with reverse component belonging to the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, a major structure that accommodates most of the convergence between Iberian and Nubian tectonics plates in Southern Spain. The proximity of this major fault to the city of Murcia encourages the importance of carrying out paleosismological studies in order to determinate the Quaternary slip rate of the fault, a key geological parameter for seismic hazard calculations. This segment is formed by a narrow fault zone that articulates abruptly the northern edge of the Carrascoy Range with the Guadalentin Depression through high slope, short alluvial fans Upper-Middle Pleistocene in age. An outcrop in a quarry at the foot of this front reveals a progressive unconformity developed on these alluvial fan deposits, showing the important reverse component of the fault. The architecture of this unconformity is marked by well-developed calcretes on the top some of the alluvial deposits. We have determined the age of several of these calcretes by the Uranium-series disequilibrium dating method. The results obtained are consistent with recent published studies on the SW segment of the Carrascoy Fault that together with offset canals observed at a few locations suggest a net slip rate close to 1 m/ka.

Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Effects on Neighbouring Faults and Volcanoes: Application to the 2016 Pedernales Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.

2017-12-01

It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.

A Non-linear Geodetic Data Inversion Using ABIC for Slip Distribution on a Fault With an Unknown dip Angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukahata, Y.; Wright, T. J.

2006-12-01

We developed a method of geodetic data inversion for slip distribution on a fault with an unknown dip angle. When fault geometry is unknown, the problem of geodetic data inversion is non-linear. A common strategy for obtaining slip distribution is to first determine the fault geometry by minimizing the square misfit under the assumption of a uniform slip on a rectangular fault, and then apply the usual linear inversion technique to estimate a slip distribution on the determined fault. It is not guaranteed, however, that the fault determined under the assumption of a uniform slip gives the best fault geometry for a spatially variable slip distribution. In addition, in obtaining a uniform slip fault model, we have to simultaneously determine the values of the nine mutually dependent parameters, which is a highly non-linear, complicated process. Although the inverse problem is non-linear for cases with unknown fault geometries, the non-linearity of the problems is actually weak, when we can assume the fault surface to be flat. In particular, when a clear fault trace is observed on the EarthOs surface after an earthquake, we can precisely estimate the strike and the location of the fault. In this case only the dip angle has large ambiguity. In geodetic data inversion we usually need to introduce smoothness constraints in order to compromise reciprocal requirements for model resolution and estimation errors in a natural way. Strictly speaking, the inverse problem with smoothness constraints is also non-linear, even if the fault geometry is known. The non-linearity has been dissolved by introducing AkaikeOs Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC), with which the optimal value of the relative weight of observed data to smoothness constraints is objectively determined. In this study, using ABIC in determining the optimal dip angle, we dissolved the non-linearity of the inverse problem. We applied the method to the InSAR data of the 1995 Dinar, Turkey earthquake and obtained a much shallower dip angle than before.

Efficient fault diagnosis of helicopter gearboxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, H.; Danai, K.; Lewicki, D. G.

1993-01-01

Application of a diagnostic system to a helicopter gearbox is presented. The diagnostic system is a nonparametric pattern classifier that uses a multi-valued influence matrix (MVIM) as its diagnostic model and benefits from a fast learning algorithm that enables it to estimate its diagnostic model from a small number of measurement-fault data. To test this diagnostic system, vibration measurements were collected from a helicopter gearbox test stand during accelerated fatigue tests and at various fault instances. The diagnostic results indicate that the MVIM system can accurately detect and diagnose various gearbox faults so long as they are included in training.

Online Detection of Broken Rotor Bar Fault in Induction Motors by Combining Estimation of Signal Parameters via Min-norm Algorithm and Least Square Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pan-Pan; Yu, Qiang; Hu, Yong-Jun; Miao, Chang-Xin

2017-11-01

Current research in broken rotor bar (BRB) fault detection in induction motors is primarily focused on a high-frequency resolution analysis of the stator current. Compared with a discrete Fourier transformation, the parametric spectrum estimation technique has a higher frequency accuracy and resolution. However, the existing detection methods based on parametric spectrum estimation cannot realize online detection, owing to the large computational cost. To improve the efficiency of BRB fault detection, a new detection method based on the min-norm algorithm and least square estimation is proposed in this paper. First, the stator current is filtered using a band-pass filter and divided into short overlapped data windows. The min-norm algorithm is then applied to determine the frequencies of the fundamental and fault characteristic components with each overlapped data window. Next, based on the frequency values obtained, a model of the fault current signal is constructed. Subsequently, a linear least squares problem solved through singular value decomposition is designed to estimate the amplitudes and phases of the related components. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a simulated current and an actual motor, the results of which indicate that, not only parametric spectrum estimation technique.

Mapping 3D fault geometry in earthquakes using high-resolution topography: Examples from the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) and 2013 Balochistan (Pakistan) earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yu; Walker, Richard T.; Elliott, John R.; Parsons, Barry

2016-04-01

Fault dips are usually measured from outcrops in the field or inferred through geodetic or seismological modeling. Here we apply the classic structural geology approach of calculating dip from a fault's 3-D surface trace using recent, high-resolution topography. A test study applied to the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake shows very good agreement between our results and those previously determined from field measurements. To obtain a reliable estimate, a fault segment ≥120 m long with a topographic variation ≥15 m is suggested. We then applied this method to the 2013 Balochistan earthquake, getting dips similar to previous estimates. Our dip estimates show a switch from north to south dipping at the southern end of the main trace, which appears to be a response to local extension within a stepover. We suggest that this previously unidentified geometrical complexity may act as the endpoint of earthquake ruptures for the southern end of the Hoshab fault.

A time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard model for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Petersen, M.D.; Cao, T.; Toppozada, Tousson R.; Reichle, M.

2000-01-01

For the purpose of sensitivity testing and illuminating nonconsensus components of time-dependent models, the California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) has assembled a time-dependent version of its statewide probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for California. The model incorporates available consensus information from within the earth-science community, except for a few faults or fault segments where consensus information is not available. For these latter faults, published information has been incorporated into the model. As in the 1996 CDMG/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model, the time-dependent models incorporate three multisegment ruptures: a 1906, an 1857, and a southern San Andreas earthquake. Sensitivity tests are presented to show the effect on hazard and expected damage estimates of (1) intrinsic (aleatory) sigma, (2) multisegment (cascade) vs. independent segment (no cascade) ruptures, and (3) time-dependence vs. time-independence. Results indicate that (1) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between time-dependent and independent models increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma, (2) differences in hazard and expected damage estimates between full cascading and not cascading are insensitive to intrinsic sigma, (3) differences in hazard increase with increasing return period (decreasing probability of occurrence), and (4) differences in moment-rate budgets increase with decreasing intrinsic sigma and with the degree of cascading, but are within the expected uncertainty in PSH time-dependent modeling and do not always significantly affect hazard and expected damage estimates.

An Indirect Adaptive Control Scheme in the Presence of Actuator and Sensor Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, Joy Z.; Josh, Suresh M.

2009-01-01

The problem of controlling a system in the presence of unknown actuator and sensor faults is addressed. The system is assumed to have groups of actuators, and groups of sensors, with each group consisting of multiple redundant similar actuators or sensors. The types of actuator faults considered consist of unknown actuators stuck in unknown positions, as well as reduced actuator effectiveness. The sensor faults considered include unknown biases and outages. The approach employed for fault detection and estimation consists of a bank of Kalman filters based on multiple models, and subsequent control reconfiguration to mitigate the effect of biases caused by failed components as well as to obtain stability and satisfactory performance using the remaining actuators and sensors. Conditions for fault identifiability are presented, and the adaptive scheme is applied to an aircraft flight control example in the presence of actuator failures. Simulation results demonstrate that the method can rapidly and accurately detect faults and estimate the fault values, thus enabling safe operation and acceptable performance in spite of failures.

Taking apart the Big Pine fault: Redefining a major structural feature in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Onderdonk, N.W.; Minor, S.A.; Kellogg, K.S.

2005-01-01

New mapping along the Big Pine fault trend in southern California indicates that this structural alignment is actually three separate faults, which exhibit different geometries, slip histories, and senses of offset since Miocene time. The easternmost fault, along the north side of Lockwood Valley, exhibits left-lateral reverse Quaternary displacement but was a north dipping normal fault in late Oligocene to early Miocene time. The eastern Big Pine fault that bounds the southern edge of the Cuyama Badlands is a south dipping reverse fault that is continuous with the San Guillermo fault. The western segment of the Big Pine fault trend is a north dipping thrust fault continuous with the Pine Mountain fault and delineates the northern boundary of the rotated western Transverse Ranges terrane. This redefinition of the Big Pine fault differs greatly from the previous interpretation and significantly alters regional tectonic models and seismic risk estimates. The outcome of this study also demonstrates that basic geologic mapping is still needed to support the development of geologic models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

A soft computing scheme incorporating ANN and MOV energy in fault detection, classification and distance estimation of EHV transmission line with FSC.

PubMed

Khadke, Piyush; Patne, Nita; Singh, Arvind; Shinde, Gulab

2016-01-01

In this article, a novel and accurate scheme for fault detection, classification and fault distance estimation for a fixed series compensated transmission line is proposed. The proposed scheme is based on artificial neural network (ANN) and metal oxide varistor (MOV) energy, employing Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm. The novelty of this scheme is the use of MOV energy signals of fixed series capacitors (FSC) as input to train the ANN. Such approach has never been used in any earlier fault analysis algorithms in the last few decades. Proposed scheme uses only single end measurement energy signals of MOV in all the 3 phases over one cycle duration from the occurrence of a fault. Thereafter, these MOV energy signals are fed as input to ANN for fault distance estimation. Feasibility and reliability of the proposed scheme have been evaluated for all ten types of fault in test power system model at different fault inception angles over numerous fault locations. Real transmission system parameters of 3-phase 400 kV Wardha-Aurangabad transmission line (400 km) with 40 % FSC at Power Grid Wardha Substation, India is considered for this research. Extensive simulation experiments show that the proposed scheme provides quite accurate results which demonstrate complete protection scheme with high accuracy, simplicity and robustness.

Assessment of Late Quaternary strain partitioning in the Afar Triple Junction: Dobe and Hanle grabens, Ethiopia and Djibouti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polun, S. G.; Stockman, M. B.; Hickcox, K.; Horrell, D.; Tesfaye, S.; Gomez, F. G.

2015-12-01

As the only subaerial exposure of a ridge - ridge - ridge triple junction, the Afar region of Ethiopia and Djibouti offers a rare opportunity to assess strain partitioning within this type of triple junction. Here, the plate boundaries do not link discretely, but rather the East African rift meets the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifts in a zone of diffuse normal faulting characterized by a lack of magmatic activity, referred to as the central Afar. An initial assessment of Late Quaternary strain partitioning is based on faulted landforms in the Dobe - Hanle graben system in Ethiopia and Djibouti. These two extensional basins are connected by an imbricated accommodation zone. Several fault scarps occur within terraces formed during the last highstand of Lake Dobe, around 5 ka - they provide a means of calibrating a numerical model of fault scarp degradation. Additional timing constraints will be provided by pending exposure ages. The spreading rates of both grabens are equivalent, however in Dobe graben, extension is partitioned 2:1 between northern, south dipping faults and the southern, north dipping fault. Extension in Hanle graben is primarily focused on the north dipping Hanle fault. On the north margin of Dobe graben, the boundary fault bifurcates, where the basin-bordering fault displays a significantly higher modeled uplift rate than the more distal fault, suggesting a basinward propagation of faulting. On the southern Dobe fault, surveyed fault scarps have ages ranging from 30 - 5 ka with uplift rates of 0.71, 0.47, and 0.68 mm/yr, suggesting no secular variation in slip rates from the late Plestocene through the Holocene. These rates are converted into horizontal stretching estimates, which are compared with regional strain estimated from velocities of relatively sparse GPS data.

Fault Geometry and Slip Distribution at Depth of the 1997 Mw 7.2 Zirkuh Earthquake: Contribution of Near-Field Displacement Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchandon, Mathilde; Vergnolle, Mathilde; Sudhaus, Henriette; Cavalié, Olivier

2018-02-01

In this study, we reestimate the source model of the 1997 Mw 7.2 Zirkuh earthquake (northeastern Iran) by jointly optimizing intermediate-field Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar data and near-field optical correlation data using a two-step fault modeling procedure. First, we estimate the geometry of the multisegmented Abiz fault using a genetic algorithm. Then, we discretize the fault segments into subfaults and invert the data to image the slip distribution on the fault. Our joint-data model, although similar to the Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar-based model to the first order, highlights differences in the fault dip and slip distribution. Our preferred model is ˜80° west dipping in the northern part of the fault, ˜75° east dipping in the southern part and shows three disconnected high slip zones separated by low slip zones. The low slip zones are located where the Abiz fault shows geometric complexities and where the aftershocks are located. We interpret this rough slip distribution as three asperities separated by geometrical barriers that impede the rupture propagation. Finally, no shallow slip deficit is found for the overall rupture except on the central segment where it could be due to off-fault deformation in quaternary deposits.

Optimal Model-Based Fault Estimation and Correction for Particle Accelerators and Industrial Plants Using Combined Support Vector Machines and First Principles Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sayyar-Rodsari, Bijan; Schweiger, Carl; /SLAC /Pavilion Technologies, Inc., Austin, TX

2010-08-25

Timely estimation of deviations from optimal performance in complex systems and the ability to identify corrective measures in response to the estimated parameter deviations has been the subject of extensive research over the past four decades. The implications in terms of lost revenue from costly industrial processes, operation of large-scale public works projects and the volume of the published literature on this topic clearly indicates the significance of the problem. Applications range from manufacturing industries (integrated circuits, automotive, etc.), to large-scale chemical plants, pharmaceutical production, power distribution grids, and avionics. In this project we investigated a new framework for buildingmore » parsimonious models that are suited for diagnosis and fault estimation of complex technical systems. We used Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to model potentially time-varying parameters of a First-Principles (FP) description of the process. The combined SVM & FP model was built (i.e. model parameters were trained) using constrained optimization techniques. We used the trained models to estimate faults affecting simulated beam lifetime. In the case where a large number of process inputs are required for model-based fault estimation, the proposed framework performs an optimal nonlinear principal component analysis of the large-scale input space, and creates a lower dimension feature space in which fault estimation results can be effectively presented to the operation personnel. To fulfill the main technical objectives of the Phase I research, our Phase I efforts have focused on: (1) SVM Training in a Combined Model Structure - We developed the software for the constrained training of the SVMs in a combined model structure, and successfully modeled the parameters of a first-principles model for beam lifetime with support vectors. (2) Higher-order Fidelity of the Combined Model - We used constrained training to ensure that the output of the SVM (i.e. the parameters of the beam lifetime model) are physically meaningful. (3) Numerical Efficiency of the Training - We investigated the numerical efficiency of the SVM training. More specifically, for the primal formulation of the training, we have developed a problem formulation that avoids the linear increase in the number of the constraints as a function of the number of data points. (4) Flexibility of Software Architecture - The software framework for the training of the support vector machines was designed to enable experimentation with different solvers. We experimented with two commonly used nonlinear solvers for our simulations. The primary application of interest for this project has been the sustained optimal operation of particle accelerators at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC). Particle storage rings are used for a variety of applications ranging from 'colliding beam' systems for high-energy physics research to highly collimated x-ray generators for synchrotron radiation science. Linear accelerators are also used for collider research such as International Linear Collider (ILC), as well as for free electron lasers, such as the Linear Coherent Light Source (LCLS) at SLAC. One common theme in the operation of storage rings and linear accelerators is the need to precisely control the particle beams over long periods of time with minimum beam loss and stable, yet challenging, beam parameters. We strongly believe that beyond applications in particle accelerators, the high fidelity and cost benefits of a combined model-based fault estimation/correction system will attract customers from a wide variety of commercial and scientific industries. Even though the acquisition of Pavilion Technologies, Inc. by Rockwell Automation Inc. in 2007 has altered the small business status of the Pavilion and it no longer qualifies for a Phase II funding, our findings in the course of the Phase I research have convinced us that further research will render a workable model-based fault estimation and correction for particle accelerators and industrial plants feasible.« less

Probability estimates of seismic event occurrence compared to health hazards - Forecasting Taipei's Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.

2014-12-01

Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.

Geometry of Thrust Faults Beneath Amenthes Rupes, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vidal, A.; Mueller, K. M.; Golombek, M. P.

2005-01-01

Amenthes Rupes is a 380 km-long lobate fault scarp located in the eastern hemisphere of Mars near the dichotomy boundary. The scarp is marked by about 1 km of vertical separation across a northeast dipping thrust fault (top to the SW) and offsets heavily-cratered terrain of Late Noachian age, the visible portion of which was in place by 3.92 Ga and the buried portion in place between 4.08 and 4.27 Ga. The timing of scarp formation is difficult to closely constrain. Previous geologic mapping shows that near the northern end of Amenthes Rupes, Hesperian age basalts terminate at the scarp, suggesting that fault slip predated the emplacement of these flows at 3.69 to 3.9 Ga. Maxwell and McGill also suggest the faulting ceased before the final emplacement of the Late Hesperian lavas on Isidis Planitia. The trend of the faults at Amenthes, like many thrust faults at the dichotomy boundary, parallels the boundary itself. Schultz and Watters used a dislocation modeling program to match surface topography and vertical offset of the scarp at Amenthes Rupes, varying the dip and depth of faulting, assuming a slip of 1.5 km on the fault. They modeled faulting below Amenthes Rupes as having a dip of between 25 and 30 degrees and a depth of 25 to 35 km, based on the best match to topography. Assuming a 25 degree dip and surface measurements of vertical offset of between 0.3 and 1.2 km, Watters later estimated the maximum displacement on the Amenthes Rupes fault to be 2.90 km. However, these studies did not determine the geometry of the thrust using quantitative constraints that included shortening estimates. Amenthes Rupes deforms large preexisting impact craters. We use these craters to constrain shortening across the scarp and combine this with vertical separation to infer fault geometry. Fault dip was also estimated using measurements of scarp morphology. Measurements were based on 460 m (1/128 per pixel) digital elevation data from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), an instrument on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) satellite.

GPS Imaging of Time-Variable Earthquake Hazard: The Hilton Creek Fault, Long Valley California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.

2016-12-01

The Hilton Creek Fault, in Long Valley, California is a down-to-the-east normal fault that bounds the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and lies half inside and half outside the magmatically active caldera. Despite the dense coverage with GPS networks, the rapid and time-variable surface deformation attributable to sporadic magmatic inflation beneath the resurgent dome makes it difficult to use traditional geodetic methods to estimate the slip rate of the fault. While geologic studies identify cumulative offset, constrain timing of past earthquakes, and constrain a Quaternary slip rate to within 1-5 mm/yr, it is not currently possible to use geologic data to evaluate how the potential for slip correlates with transient caldera inflation. To estimate time-variable seismic hazard of the fault we estimate its instantaneous slip rate from GPS data using a new set of algorithms for robust estimation of velocity and strain rate fields and fault slip rates. From the GPS time series, we use the robust MIDAS algorithm to obtain time series of velocity that are highly insensitive to the effects of seasonality, outliers and steps in the data. We then use robust imaging of the velocity field to estimate a gridded time variable velocity field. Then we estimate fault slip rate at each time using a new technique that forms ad-hoc block representations that honor fault geometries, network complexity, connectivity, but does not require labor-intensive drawing of block boundaries. The results are compared to other slip rate estimates that have implications for hazard over different time scales. Time invariant long term seismic hazard is proportional to the long term slip rate accessible from geologic data. Contemporary time-invariant hazard, however, may differ from the long term rate, and is estimated from the geodetic velocity field that has been corrected for the effects of magmatic inflation in the caldera using a published model of a dipping ellipsoidal magma chamber. Contemporary time-variable hazard can be estimated from the time variable slip rate estimated from the evolving GPS velocity field.

A kinematic model for the evolution of the Eastern California Shear Zone and Garlock Fault, Mojave Desert, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Timothy H.; Xie, Surui

2018-07-01

The Eastern California shear zone in the Mojave Desert, California, accommodates nearly a quarter of Pacific-North America plate motion. In south-central Mojave, the shear zone consists of six active faults, with the central Calico fault having the fastest slip rate. However, faults to the east of the Calico fault have larger total offsets. We explain this pattern of slip rate and total offset with a model involving a crustal block (the Mojave Block) that migrates eastward relative to a shear zone at depth whose position and orientation is fixed by the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault (SAF), southwest of the transpressive "big bend" in the SAF. Both the shear zone and the Garlock fault are assumed to be a direct result of this restraining bend, and consequent strain redistribution. The model explains several aspects of local and regional tectonics, may apply to other transpressive continental plate boundary zones, and may improve seismic hazard estimates in these zones.

Surface faulting and paleoseismic history of the 1932 Cedar Mountain earthquake area, west-central Nevada, and implications for modern tectonics of the Walker Lane

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, J.W.; DePolo, C.M.; Ramelli, A.R.; Sarna-Wojcicki, A. M.; Meyer, C.E.

1999-01-01

The 1932 Cedar Mountain earthquake (Ms 7.2) was one of the largest historical events in the Walker Lane region of western Nevada, and it produced a complicated strike-slip rupture pattern on multiple Quaternary faults distributed through three valleys. Primary, right-lateral surface ruptures occurred on north-striking faults in Monte Cristo Valley; small-scale lateral and normal offsets occurred in Stewart Valley; and secondary, normal faulting occurred on north-northeast-striking faults in the Gabbs Valley epicentral region. A reexamination of the surface ruptures provides new displacement and fault-zone data: maximum cumulative offset is estimated to be 2.7 m, and newly recognized faults extend the maximum width and end-to-end length of the rupture zone to 17 and 75 km, respectively. A detailed Quaternary allostratigraphic chronology based on regional alluvialgeomorphic relationships, tephrochronology, and radiocarbon dating provides a framework for interpreting the paleoseismic history of the fault zone. A late Wisconsinan alluvial-fan and piedmont unit containing a 32-36 ka tephra layer is a key stratigraphic datum for paleoseismic measurements. Exploratory trenching and radiocarbon dating of tectonic stratigraphy provide the first estimates for timing of late Quaternary faulting along the Cedar Mountain fault zone. Three trenches display evidence for six faulting events, including that in 1932, during the past 32-36 ka. Radiocarbon dating of organic soils interstratified with tectonically ponded silts establishes best-fit ages of the pre-1932 events at 4, 5,12,15, and 18 ka, each with ??2 ka uncertainties. On the basis of an estimated cumulative net slip of 6-12 m for the six faulting events, minimum and maximum late Quaternary slip rates are 0.2 and 0.7 mm/yr, respectively, and the preferred rate is 0.4-0.5 mm/yr. The average recurrence (interseismic) interval is 3600 yr. The relatively uniform thickness of the ponded deposits suggests that similar-size, characteristic rupture events may characterize late Quaternary slip on the zone. A comparison of event timing with the average late Quaternary recurrence interval indicates that slip has been largely regular (periodic) rather than temporally clustered. To account for the spatial separation of the primary surface faulting in Monte Cristo Valley from the epicenter and for a factor-of-two-to-three disparity between the instrumentally and geologically determined seismic moments associated with the earthquake, we hypothesize two alternative tectonic models containing undetected subevents. Either model would adequately account for the observed faulting on the basis of wrench-fault kinematics that may be associated with the Walker Lane. The 1932 Cedar Mountain earthquake is considered an important modern analogue for seismotectonic modeling and estimating seismic hazard in the Walker Lane region. In contrast to most other historical events in the Basin and Range province, the 1932 event did not occur along a major range-bounding fault, and no single, throughgoing basement structure can account for the observed rupture pattern. The 1932 faulting supports the concept that major earthquakes in the Basin and Range province can exhibit complicated distributive rupture patterns and that slip rate may not be a reliable criterion for modeling seismic hazard.

Detailed interpretation of aeromagnetic data from the Patagonia Mountains area, southeastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bultman, Mark W.

2015-01-01

Euler deconvolution depth estimates derived from aeromagnetic data with a structural index of 0 show that mapped faults on the northern margin of the Patagonia Mountains generally agree with the depth estimates in the new geologic model. The deconvolution depth estimates also show that the concealed Patagonia Fault southwest of the Patagonia Mountains is more complex than recent geologic mapping represents. Additionally, Euler deconvolution depth estimates with a structural index of 2 locate many potential intrusive bodies that might be associated with known and unknown mineralization.

Sensor fault detection and isolation system for a condensation process.

PubMed

Castro, M A López; Escobar, R F; Torres, L; Aguilar, J F Gómez; Hernández, J A; Olivares-Peregrino, V H

2016-11-01

This article presents the design of a sensor Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system for a condensation process based on a nonlinear model. The condenser is modeled by dynamic and thermodynamic equations. For this work, the dynamic equations are described by three pairs of differential equations which represent the energy balance between the fluids. The thermodynamic equations consist in algebraic heat transfer equations and empirical equations, that allow for the estimation of heat transfer coefficients. The FDI system consists of a bank of two nonlinear high-gain observers, in order to detect, estimate and to isolate the fault in any of both outlet temperature sensors. The main contributions of this work were the experimental validation of the condenser nonlinear model and the FDI system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fault-based model for crustal deformation, fault slip-rates and off-fault strain rate in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2016-01-01

We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 deformation working group. The result of least‐squares inversion shows that the San Andreas fault slips at 19–22  mm/yr along Santa Cruz to the North Coast, 25–28  mm/yr along the central California creeping segment to the Carrizo Plain, 20–22  mm/yr along the Mojave, and 20–24  mm/yr along the Coachella to the Imperial Valley. Modeled slip rates are 7–16  mm/yr lower than the preferred geologic rates from the central California creeping section to the San Bernardino North section. For the Bartlett Springs section, fault slip rates of 7–9  mm/yr fall within the geologic bounds but are twice the preferred geologic rates. For the central and eastern Garlock, inverted slip rates of 7.5 and 4.9  mm/yr, respectively, match closely with the geologic rates. For the western Garlock, however, our result suggests a low slip rate of 1.7  mm/yr. Along the eastern California shear zone and southern Walker Lane, our model shows a cumulative slip rate of 6.2–6.9  mm/yr across its east–west transects, which is ∼1  mm/yr increase of the geologic estimates. For the off‐coast faults of central California, from Hosgri to San Gregorio, fault slips are modeled at 1–5  mm/yr, similar to the lower geologic bounds. For the off‐fault deformation, the total moment rate amounts to 0.88×1019  N·m/yr, with fast straining regions found around the Mendocino triple junction, Transverse Ranges and Garlock fault zones, Landers and Brawley seismic zones, and farther south. The overall California moment rate is 2.76×1019  N·m/yr, which is a 16% increase compared with the UCERF2 model.

Finite-fault source inversion using teleseismic P waves: Simple parameterization and rapid analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendoza, C.; Hartzell, S.

2013-01-01

We examine the ability of teleseismic P waves to provide a timely image of the rupture history for large earthquakes using a simple, 2D finite‐fault source parameterization. We analyze the broadband displacement waveforms recorded for the 2010 Mw∼7 Darfield (New Zealand) and El Mayor‐Cucapah (Baja California) earthquakes using a single planar fault with a fixed rake. Both of these earthquakes were observed to have complicated fault geometries following detailed source studies conducted by other investigators using various data types. Our kinematic, finite‐fault analysis of the events yields rupture models that similarly identify the principal areas of large coseismic slip along the fault. The results also indicate that the amount of stabilization required to spatially smooth the slip across the fault and minimize the seismic moment is related to the amplitudes of the observed P waveforms and can be estimated from the absolute values of the elements of the coefficient matrix. This empirical relationship persists for earthquakes of different magnitudes and is consistent with the stabilization constraint obtained from the L‐curve in Tikhonov regularization. We use the relation to estimate the smoothing parameters for the 2011 Mw 7.1 East Turkey, 2012 Mw 8.6 Northern Sumatra, and 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquakes and invert the teleseismic P waves in a single step to recover timely, preliminary slip models that identify the principal source features observed in finite‐fault solutions obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS/NEIC) from the analysis of body‐ and surface‐wave data. These results indicate that smoothing constraints can be estimated a priori to derive a preliminary, first‐order image of the coseismic slip using teleseismic records.

Real-time and rapid GNSS solutions from the M8.2 September 2017 Tehuantepec Earthquake and implications for Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mencin, D.; Hodgkinson, K. M.; Mattioli, G. S.

2017-12-01

In support of hazard research and Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Systems UNAVCO operates approximately 800 RT-GNSS stations throughout western North America and Alaska (EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory), Mexico (TLALOCNet), and the pan-Caribbean region (COCONet). Our system produces and distributes raw data (BINEX and RTCM3) and real-time Precise Point Positions via the Trimble PIVOT Platform (RTX). The 2017-09-08 earthquake M8.2 located 98 km SSW of Tres Picos, Mexico is the first great earthquake to occur within the UNAVCO RT-GNSS footprint, which allows for a rigorous analysis of our dynamic and static processing methods. The need for rapid geodetic solutions ranges from seconds (EEW systems) to several minutes (Tsunami Warning and NEIC moment tensor and finite fault models). Here, we compare and quantify the relative processing strategies for producing static offsets, moment tensors and geodetically determined finite fault models using data recorded during this event. We also compare the geodetic solutions with the USGS NEIC seismically derived moment tensors and finite fault models, including displacement waveforms generated from these models. We define kinematic post-processed solutions from GIPSY-OASISII (v6.4) with final orbits and clocks as a "best" case reference to evaluate the performance of our different processing strategies. We find that static displacements of a few centimeters or less are difficult to resolve in the real-time GNSS position estimates. The standard daily 24-hour solutions provide the highest-quality data-set to determine coseismic offsets, but these solutions are delayed by at least 48 hours after the event. Dynamic displacements, estimated in real-time, however, show reasonable agreement with final, post-processed position estimates, and while individual position estimates have large errors, the real-time solutions offer an excellent operational option for EEW systems, including the use of estimated peak-ground displacements or directly inverting for finite-fault solutions. In the near-field, we find that the geodetically-derived moment tensors and finite fault models differ significantly with seismically-derived models, highlighting the utility of using geodetic data in hazard applications.

Tsunami simulation using submarine displacement calculated from simulation of ground motion due to seismic source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyama, S.; Kawaji, K.; Fujihara, S.

2013-12-01

Since fault fracturing due to an earthquake can simultaneously cause ground motion and tsunami, it is appropriate to evaluate the ground motion and the tsunami by single fault model. However, several source models are used independently in the ground motion simulation or the tsunami simulation, because of difficulty in evaluating both phenomena simultaneously. Many source models for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake are proposed from the inversion analyses of seismic observations or from those of tsunami observations. Most of these models show the similar features, which large amount of slip is located at the shallower part of fault area near the Japan Trench. This indicates that the ground motion and the tsunami can be evaluated by the single source model. Therefore, we examine the possibility of the tsunami prediction, using the fault model estimated from seismic observation records. In this study, we try to carry out the tsunami simulation using the displacement field of oceanic crustal movements, which is calculated from the ground motion simulation of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. We use two fault models by Yoshida et al. (2011), which are based on both the teleseismic body wave and on the strong ground motion records. Although there is the common feature in those fault models, the amount of slip near the Japan trench is lager in the fault model from the strong ground motion records than in that from the teleseismic body wave. First, the large-scale ground motion simulations applying those fault models used by the voxel type finite element method are performed for the whole eastern Japan. The synthetic waveforms computed from the simulations are generally consistent with the observation records of K-NET (Kinoshita (1998)) and KiK-net stations (Aoi et al. (2000)), deployed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). Next, the tsunami simulations are performed by the finite difference calculation based on the shallow water theory. The initial wave height for tsunami generation is estimated from the vertical displacement of ocean bottom due to the crustal movements, which is obtained from the ground motion simulation mentioned above. The results of tsunami simulations are compared with the observations of the GPS wave gauges to evaluate the validity for the tsunami prediction using the fault model based on the seismic observation records.

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.; McFarland, Forrest S.; Simpson, Robert W.; Caskey, S. John

2014-01-01

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

The 1992 M=7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake: Coseismic deformation at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, M.H.; Marshall, G.A.; Lisowski, M.; Stein, R.S.

1996-01-01

We invert geodetic measurements of coseismic surface displacements to determine a dislocation model for the April 25, 1992, M=7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake. The orientation of the model slip vector, which nearly parallels North America-Juan de Fuca relative plate convergence, and the location and orientation of the model fault relative to the offshore Cascadia megathrust, suggest that the 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake is the first well-recorded event to relieve strain associated with the Cascadia subduction zone. We use data from three geodetic techniques: (1) the horizontal and vertical displacements of 13 monuments surveyed with the Global Positioning System, corrected for observed horizontal interseismic strain accumulation, (2) 88 section-elevation differences between leveling monuments, and (3) the uplift of 12 coastal sites observed from the die-off of intertidal marine organisms. Maximum observed displacements are 0.4 m of horizontal movement and 1.5 m of uplift along the coast. We use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate an optimal uniform slip rectangular fault geometry and its uncertainties. The optimal model using all the data resolves 4.9 m of slip on a 14 by 15 km fault that dips 28?? SE. The fault extends from 1.5 to 8.7 km in depth and the main-shock hypocenter is close to the downdip projection of the fault. The shallowly dipping fault plane is consistent with the observed aftershock locations, and the estimated geodetic moment is 3.1??1019 N m, 70% of the seismic moment. Other models that exclude leveling data collected in 1935 and 1942 are more consistent with seismological estimates of the fault geometry. If the earthquake is characteristic for this segment, the estimated horizontal slip vector compared with plate convergence rates suggests a recurrence interval of 140 years, with a 95% confidence range of 100-670 years. The coseismic uplift occurred in a region that also has high Quaternary uplift rates determined from marine terrace studies. If repeated ruptures of this southernmost segment of the Cascadia megathrust are responsible for the Quaternary uplift, a comparison of the coseismic uplift with coastal uplift rates suggests a recurrence interval of 200-400 years. Thus comparing horizontal and vertical coseismic to long-term deformation suggests a recurrence interval of about 100-300 years for M=7 events at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust.

Methodology for earthquake rupture rate estimates of fault networks: example for the western Corinth rift, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène; Boiselet, Aurélien

2017-10-01

Modeling the seismic potential of active faults is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). An accurate estimation of the rate of earthquakes on the faults is necessary in order to obtain the probability of exceedance of a given ground motion. Most PSHA studies consider faults as independent structures and neglect the possibility of multiple faults or fault segments rupturing simultaneously (fault-to-fault, FtF, ruptures). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF-3) model takes into account this possibility by considering a system-level approach rather than an individual-fault-level approach using the geological, seismological and geodetical information to invert the earthquake rates. In many places of the world seismological and geodetical information along fault networks is often not well constrained. There is therefore a need to propose a methodology relying on geological information alone to compute earthquake rates of the faults in the network. In the proposed methodology, a simple distance criteria is used to define FtF ruptures and consider single faults or FtF ruptures as an aleatory uncertainty, similarly to UCERF-3. Rates of earthquakes on faults are then computed following two constraints: the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the fault system as a whole must follow an a priori chosen shape and the rate of earthquakes on each fault is determined by the specific slip rate of each segment depending on the possible FtF ruptures. The modeled earthquake rates are then compared to the available independent data (geodetical, seismological and paleoseismological data) in order to weight different hypothesis explored in a logic tree.The methodology is tested on the western Corinth rift (WCR), Greece, where recent advancements have been made in the understanding of the geological slip rates of the complex network of normal faults which are accommodating the ˜ 15 mm yr-1 north-south extension. Modeling results show that geological, seismological and paleoseismological rates of earthquakes cannot be reconciled with only single-fault-rupture scenarios and require hypothesizing a large spectrum of possible FtF rupture sets. In order to fit the imposed regional Gutenberg-Richter (GR) MFD target, some of the slip along certain faults needs to be accommodated either with interseismic creep or as post-seismic processes. Furthermore, computed individual faults' MFDs differ depending on the position of each fault in the system and the possible FtF ruptures associated with the fault. Finally, a comparison of modeled earthquake rupture rates with those deduced from the regional and local earthquake catalog statistics and local paleoseismological data indicates a better fit with the FtF rupture set constructed with a distance criteria based on 5 km rather than 3 km, suggesting a high connectivity of faults in the WCR fault system.

An approximation formula for a class of fault-tolerant computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, A. L.

1986-01-01

An approximation formula is derived for the probability of failure for fault-tolerant process-control computers. These computers use redundancy and reconfiguration to achieve high reliability. Finite-state Markov models capture the dynamic behavior of component failure and system recovery, and the approximation formula permits an estimation of system reliability by an easy examination of the model.

State Tracking and Fault Diagnosis for Dynamic Systems Using Labeled Uncertainty Graph.

PubMed

Zhou, Gan; Feng, Wenquan; Zhao, Qi; Zhao, Hongbo

2015-11-05

Cyber-physical systems such as autonomous spacecraft, power plants and automotive systems become more vulnerable to unanticipated failures as their complexity increases. Accurate tracking of system dynamics and fault diagnosis are essential. This paper presents an efficient state estimation method for dynamic systems modeled as concurrent probabilistic automata. First, the Labeled Uncertainty Graph (LUG) method in the planning domain is introduced to describe the state tracking and fault diagnosis processes. Because the system model is probabilistic, the Monte Carlo technique is employed to sample the probability distribution of belief states. In addition, to address the sample impoverishment problem, an innovative look-ahead technique is proposed to recursively generate most likely belief states without exhaustively checking all possible successor modes. The overall algorithms incorporate two major steps: a roll-forward process that estimates system state and identifies faults, and a roll-backward process that analyzes possible system trajectories once the faults have been detected. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by applying it to a real world domain: the power supply control unit of a spacecraft.

Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, Jessica R.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.

2014-01-01

Fault creep, depending on its rate and spatial extent, is thought to reduce earthquake hazard by releasing tectonic strain aseismically. We use Bayesian inversion and a newly expanded GPS data set to infer the deep slip rates below assigned locking depths on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults of Northern California and, for the latter two, the spatially variable interseismic creep rate above the locking depth. We estimate deep slip rates of 21.5 ± 0.5, 13.1 ± 0.8, and 7.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr below 16 km, 9 km, and 13 km on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults, respectively. We infer that on average the Bartlett Springs fault creeps from the Earth's surface to 13 km depth, and below 5 km the creep rate approaches the deep slip rate. This implies that microseismicity may extend below the locking depth; however, we cannot rule out the presence of locked patches in the seismogenic zone that could generate moderate earthquakes. Our estimated Maacama creep rate, while comparable to the inferred deep slip rate at the Earth's surface, decreases with depth, implying a slip deficit exists. The Maacama deep slip rate estimate, 13.1 mm/yr, exceeds long-term geologic slip rate estimates, perhaps due to distributed off-fault strain or the presence of multiple active fault strands. While our creep rate estimates are relatively insensitive to choice of model locking depth, insufficient independent information regarding locking depths is a source of epistemic uncertainty that impacts deep slip rate estimates.

A GPS Modeling Study of Earthquakes and Deformation in Northern Central America and along the Middle America Trench: 1999 to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Andria P.

Northern Central America is a tectonically complicated region prone to hazardous earthquakes due to the confluence of the Motagua-Polochic fault zone with the Middle America trench and strike-slip faults in the Central America volcanic arc. These three major fault zones converge at the western end of the Caribbean plate where the Cocos plate subducts under the North America and Caribbean plates. Literature from the 1970s and 1980s focused on whether a discrete North America-Caribbean-Cocos plate triple junction existed, and how the relative motions of the upper North America and Caribbean plates were accommodated. The discovery of a fourth major crustal block, the Central America forearc sliver, from seismic and geodetic observations made a three-plate triple junction geometrically impossible and introduced a new set of questions related to how deformation of the upper plate accommodates relative movements between the Caribbean plate, North America plate, and Central America forearc sliver where they intersect in the upper plate. My dissertation uses GPS and numerical modeling to measure and quantify earthquake transients and crustal deformation related to fault interactions in northern Central America and consists of three related chapters. The first chapter of my dissertation is a geodetic study of a M w = 7.4 subduction zone earthquake that occurred in 2012 offshore from our Guatemala GPS (Global Positioning System) network. For this study, I inverted coseismic site offsets and postseismic amplitudes to determine best-fitting coseismic and afterslip rupture distributions on the Middle America trench. I also determined the maximum likely viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake to test whether the transient postseismic deformation was dominated by fault afterslip or viscoelastic flow. This work was published in Geophysical Journal International in January 2015. The second chapter of my dissertation derives a new 200+ site GPS velocity field for northern Central America. Doing so was complicated by the occurrence of four M > 7 earthquakes since 2009, which perturbed the velocities of many of the GPS sites. To extract the interseismic velocity field from position time-series, we use TDEFNODE software to simultaneously model source parameters for coseismic rupture and transient afterslip from the 2012 El Salvador (M w = 7.3), 2012 Guatemala (Mw = 7.4), and 2009 Swan Islands (Mw = 7.3) earthquakes. The resulting, corrected best-fitting GPS site velocities are used in my third and final chapter. Finally, I address a variety of questions regarding several major faults that are the root of natural hazard studies in northern Central America. The 200+ site GPS velocity field derived in Chapter 2 far exceeds any previous velocity field for this region and represents a new standard for studying the tectonics of northern Central America. An inversion of the new velocity field using an eight-block elastic model gives the following unique or improved results with respect to previous work: 1) First evidence for a nearly rigid Chortis block south of the Motagua fault; 2) Evidence for southward transfer of slip from the western Motagua fault into the Guatemala City graben and other nearby normal faults; 3) A well-bounded estimate on partitioning of plate boundary slip on the Motagua and Polochic faults; 4) A first plate tectonic estimate of Cocos plate subduction below the Central America forearc sliver; 5) The first geodetic estimate of slip rate variations along the Central America volcanic arc, including the first slip rate estimate for the poorly-understood Jalpatagua fault in southern Guatemala; 6) The first geodetic estimate of distributed deformation in the Chiapas Tectonic Province; 7) Evidence for stronger locking offshore southern Mexico and even weaker shallow locking offshore Guatemala and El Salvador than previously estimated; 8) A refined estimate of how extension is distributed across the grabens of western Honduras and southern Guatemala; 9) Strain-rate tensors consistent with no significant deformation of the elongate Central America forearc sliver, but extension within the Gulf of Fonseca step-over in the Central America volcanic arc; 10) Evidence for slower slip along the Motagua fault than any previous estimate and a well-determined geodetic estimate for the long-term slip rate of the Polochic fault.

Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.

2016-12-01

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM < 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM > 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

Precarious rock and overturned transformer evidence for ground shaking in the Ms 7.7 Kern County earthquake: An analog for disastrous shaking from a major thrust fault in the Los Angeles basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brune, J.N.; Anooshehpoor, A.; Shi, B.; Zheng, Yen

2004-01-01

Precariously balanced rocks and overturned transformers in the vicinity of the White Wolf fault provide constraints on ground motion during the 1952 Ms 7.7 Kern County earthquake, a possible analog for an anticipated large earthquake in the Los Angeles basin (Shaw et al., 2002; Dolan et al., 2003). On the northeast part of the fault preliminary estimates of ground motion on the footwall give peak accelerations considerably lower than predicted by standard regression curves. On the other hand, on the hanging-wall, there is evidence of intense ground shattering and lack of precarious rocks, consistent with the intense hanging-wall accelerations suggested by foam-rubber modeling, numerical modeling, and observations from previous thrust fault earthquakes. There is clear evidence of the effects of rupture directivity in ground motions on the hanging-wall side of the fault (from both precarious rocks and numerical simulations). On the southwest part of the fault, which is covered by sediments, the thrust fault did not reach the surface ("blind" thrust). Overturned and damaged transformers indicate significant transfer of energy from the hanging wall to the footwall, an effect that may not be as effective when the rupture reaches the surface (is not "blind"). Transformers near the up-dip projection of the fault tip have been damaged or overturned on both the hanging-wall and footwall sides of the fault. The transfer of energy is confirmed in a numerical lattice model and could play an important role in a similar situation in Los Angeles. We suggest that the results of this study can provide important information for estimating the effects of a large thrust fault rupture in the Los Angeles basin, specially given the fact that there is so little instrumental data from large thrust fault earthquakes.

A combined approach of generalized additive model and bootstrap with small sample sets for fault diagnosis in fermentation process of glutamate.

PubMed

Liu, Chunbo; Pan, Feng; Li, Yun

2016-07-29

Glutamate is of great importance in food and pharmaceutical industries. There is still lack of effective statistical approaches for fault diagnosis in the fermentation process of glutamate. To date, the statistical approach based on generalized additive model (GAM) and bootstrap has not been used for fault diagnosis in fermentation processes, much less the fermentation process of glutamate with small samples sets. A combined approach of GAM and bootstrap was developed for the online fault diagnosis in the fermentation process of glutamate with small sample sets. GAM was first used to model the relationship between glutamate production and different fermentation parameters using online data from four normal fermentation experiments of glutamate. The fitted GAM with fermentation time, dissolved oxygen, oxygen uptake rate and carbon dioxide evolution rate captured 99.6 % variance of glutamate production during fermentation process. Bootstrap was then used to quantify the uncertainty of the estimated production of glutamate from the fitted GAM using 95 % confidence interval. The proposed approach was then used for the online fault diagnosis in the abnormal fermentation processes of glutamate, and a fault was defined as the estimated production of glutamate fell outside the 95 % confidence interval. The online fault diagnosis based on the proposed approach identified not only the start of the fault in the fermentation process, but also the end of the fault when the fermentation conditions were back to normal. The proposed approach only used a small sample sets from normal fermentations excitements to establish the approach, and then only required online recorded data on fermentation parameters for fault diagnosis in the fermentation process of glutamate. The proposed approach based on GAM and bootstrap provides a new and effective way for the fault diagnosis in the fermentation process of glutamate with small sample sets.

Fault Detection of Rotating Machinery using the Spectral Distribution Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Sanford S.

1997-01-01

The spectral distribution function is introduced to characterize the process leading to faults in rotating machinery. It is shown to be a more robust indicator than conventional power spectral density estimates, but requires only slightly more computational effort. The method is illustrated with examples from seeded gearbox transmission faults and an analytical model of a defective bearing. Procedures are suggested for implementation in realistic environments.

The Active Fault Parameters for Time-Dependent Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Cheng, C.; Lin, P.; Shao, K.; Wu, Y.; Shih, C.

2011-12-01

Taiwan is located at the boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, with a convergence rate of ~ 80 mm/yr in a ~N118E direction. The plate motion is so active that earthquake is very frequent. In the Taiwan area, disaster-inducing earthquakes often result from active faults. For this reason, it's an important subject to understand the activity and hazard of active faults. The active faults in Taiwan are mainly located in the Western Foothills and the Eastern longitudinal valley. Active fault distribution map published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS) in 2010 shows that there are 31 active faults in the island of Taiwan and some of which are related to earthquake. Many researchers have investigated these active faults and continuously update new data and results, but few people have integrated them for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. In this study, we want to gather previous researches and field work results and then integrate these data as an active fault parameters table for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. We are going to gather the seismic profiles or earthquake relocation of a fault and then combine the fault trace on land to establish the 3D fault geometry model in GIS system. We collect the researches of fault source scaling in Taiwan and estimate the maximum magnitude from fault length or fault area. We use the characteristic earthquake model to evaluate the active fault earthquake recurrence interval. In the other parameters, we will collect previous studies or historical references and complete our parameter table of active faults in Taiwan. The WG08 have done the time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment of active faults in California. They established the fault models, deformation models, earthquake rate models, and probability models and then compute the probability of faults in California. Following these steps, we have the preliminary evaluated probability of earthquake-related hazards in certain faults in Taiwan. By accomplishing active fault parameters table in Taiwan, we would apply it in time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. The result can also give engineers a reference for design. Furthermore, it can be applied in the seismic hazard map to mitigate disasters.

Relationship between displacement and gravity change of Uemachi faults and surrounding faults of Osaka basin, Southwest Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.; Kitada, N.; Kusumoto, S.; Itoh, Y.; Takemura, K.

2011-12-01

The Osaka basin surrounded by the Rokko and Ikoma Ranges is one of the typical Quaternary sedimentary basins in Japan. The Osaka basin has been filled by the Pleistocene Osaka group and the later sediments. Several large cities and metropolitan areas, such as Osaka and Kobe are located in the Osaka basin. The basin is surrounded by E-W trending strike slip faults and N-S trending reverse faults. The N-S trending 42-km-long Uemachi faults traverse in the central part of the Osaka city. The Uemachi faults have been investigated for countermeasures against earthquake disaster. It is important to reveal the detailed fault parameters, such as length, dip and recurrence interval, so on for strong ground motion simulation and disaster prevention. For strong ground motion simulation, the fault model of the Uemachi faults consist of the two parts, the north and south parts, because of the no basement displacement in the central part of the faults. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology started the project to survey of the Uemachi faults. The Disaster Prevention Institute of Kyoto University is carried out various surveys from 2009 to 2012 for 3 years. The result of the last year revealed the higher fault activity of the branch fault than main faults in the central part (see poster of "Subsurface Flexure of Uemachi Fault, Japan" by Kitada et al., in this meeting). Kusumoto et al. (2001) reported that surrounding faults enable to form the similar basement relief without the Uemachi faults model based on a dislocation model. We performed various parameter studies for dislocation model and gravity changes based on simplified faults model, which were designed based on the distribution of the real faults. The model was consisted 7 faults including the Uemachi faults. The dislocation and gravity change were calculated based on the Okada et al. (1985) and Okubo et al. (1993) respectively. The results show the similar basement displacement pattern to the Kusumoto et al. (2001) and no characteristic gravity change pattern. The Quantitative estimation is further problem.

Sliding Mode Fault Tolerant Control with Adaptive Diagnosis for Aircraft Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Lingfei; Du, Yanbin; Hu, Jixiang; Jiang, Bin

2018-03-01

In this paper, a novel sliding mode fault tolerant control method is presented for aircraft engine systems with uncertainties and disturbances on the basis of adaptive diagnostic observer. By taking both sensors faults and actuators faults into account, the general model of aircraft engine control systems which is subjected to uncertainties and disturbances, is considered. Then, the corresponding augmented dynamic model is established in order to facilitate the fault diagnosis and fault tolerant controller design. Next, a suitable detection observer is designed to detect the faults effectively. Through creating an adaptive diagnostic observer and based on sliding mode strategy, the sliding mode fault tolerant controller is constructed. Robust stabilization is discussed and the closed-loop system can be stabilized robustly. It is also proven that the adaptive diagnostic observer output errors and the estimations of faults converge to a set exponentially, and the converge rate greater than some value which can be adjusted by choosing designable parameters properly. The simulation on a twin-shaft aircraft engine verifies the applicability of the proposed fault tolerant control method.

Coulomb Stress Accumulation along the San Andreas Fault System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Bridget; Sandwell, David

2003-01-01

Stress accumulation rates along the primary segments of the San Andreas Fault system are computed using a three-dimensional (3-D) elastic half-space model with realistic fault geometry. The model is developed in the Fourier domain by solving for the response of an elastic half-space due to a point vector body force and analytically integrating the force from a locking depth to infinite depth. This approach is then applied to the San Andreas Fault system using published slip rates along 18 major fault strands of the fault zone. GPS-derived horizontal velocity measurements spanning the entire 1700 x 200 km region are then used to solve for apparent locking depth along each primary fault segment. This simple model fits remarkably well (2.43 mm/yr RMS misfit), although some discrepancies occur in the Eastern California Shear Zone. The model also predicts vertical uplift and subsidence rates that are in agreement with independent geologic and geodetic estimates. In addition, shear and normal stresses along the major fault strands are used to compute Coulomb stress accumulation rate. As a result, we find earthquake recurrence intervals along the San Andreas Fault system to be inversely proportional to Coulomb stress accumulation rate, in agreement with typical coseismic stress drops of 1 - 10 MPa. This 3-D deformation model can ultimately be extended to include both time-dependent forcing and viscoelastic response.

Assessing active faulting by hydrogeological modeling and superconducting gravimetry: A case study for Hsinchu Fault, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, Tzuyi; Cheng, Ching-Chung; Hwang, Cheinway; Crossley, David

2014-09-01

We develop a new hydrology and gravimetry-based method to assess whether or not a local fault may be active. We take advantage of an existing superconducting gravimeter (SG) station and a comprehensive groundwater network in Hsinchu to apply the method to the Hsinchu Fault (HF) across the Hsinchu Science Park, whose industrial output accounts for 10% of Taiwan's gross domestic product. The HF is suspected to pose seismic hazards to the park, but its existence and structure are not clear. The a priori geometry of the HF is translated into boundary conditions imposed in the hydrodynamic model. By varying the fault's location, depth, and including a secondary wrench fault, we construct five hydrodynamic models to estimate groundwater variations, which are evaluated by comparing groundwater levels and SG observations. The results reveal that the HF contains a low hydraulic conductivity core and significantly impacts groundwater flows in the aquifers. Imposing the fault boundary conditions leads to about 63-77% reduction in the differences between modeled and observed values (both water level and gravity). The test with fault depth shows that the HF's most recent slip occurred in the beginning of Holocene, supplying a necessary (but not sufficient) condition that the HF is currently active. A portable SG can act as a virtual borehole well for model assessment at critical locations of a suspected active fault.

Method and system for diagnostics of apparatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorinevsky, Dimitry (Inventor)

2012-01-01

Proposed is a method, implemented in software, for estimating fault state of an apparatus outfitted with sensors. At each execution period the method processes sensor data from the apparatus to obtain a set of parity parameters, which are further used for estimating fault state. The estimation method formulates a convex optimization problem for each fault hypothesis and employs a convex solver to compute fault parameter estimates and fault likelihoods for each fault hypothesis. The highest likelihoods and corresponding parameter estimates are transmitted to a display device or an automated decision and control system. The obtained accurate estimate of fault state can be used to improve safety, performance, or maintenance processes for the apparatus.

Application of fault factor method to fault detection and diagnosis for space shuttle main engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cha, Jihyoung; Ha, Chulsu; Ko, Sangho; Koo, Jaye

2016-09-01

This paper deals with an application of the multiple linear regression algorithm to fault detection and diagnosis for the space shuttle main engine (SSME) during a steady state. In order to develop the algorithm, the energy balance equations, which balances the relation among pressure, mass flow rate and power at various locations within the SSME, are obtained. Then using the measurement data of some important parameters of the engine, fault factors which reflects the deviation of each equation from the normal state are estimated. The probable location of each fault and the levels of severity can be obtained from the estimated fault factors. This process is numerically demonstrated for the SSME at 104% Rated Propulsion Level (RPL) by using the simulated measurement data from the mathematical models of the engine. The result of the current study is particularly important considering that the recently developed reusable Liquid Rocket Engines (LREs) have staged-combustion cycles similarly to the SSME.

Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, E.H.; Seligson, H.A.; Gupta, N.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Campbell, K.W.

2005-01-01

Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Neotectonics of interior Alaska and the late Quaternary slip rate along the Denali fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haeussler, Peter J.; Matmon, Ari; Schwartz, David P.; Seitz, Gordon G.

2017-01-01

The neotectonics of southern Alaska (USA) are characterized by a several hundred kilometers–wide zone of dextral transpressional that spans the Alaska Range. The Denali fault system is the largest active strike-slip fault system in interior Alaska, and it produced a Mw 7.9 earthquake in 2002. To evaluate the late Quaternary slip rate on the Denali fault system, we collected samples for cosmogenic surface exposure dating from surfaces offset by the fault system. This study includes data from 107 samples at 19 sites, including 7 sites we previously reported, as well as an estimated slip rate at another site. We utilize the interpreted surface ages to provide estimated slip rates. These new slip rate data confirm that the highest late Quaternary slip rate is ∼13 mm/yr on the central Denali fault near its intersection with the eastern Denali and the Totschunda faults, with decreasing slip rate both to the east and west. The slip rate decreases westward along the central and western parts of the Denali fault system to 5 mm/yr over a length of ∼575 km. An additional site on the eastern Denali fault near Kluane Lake, Yukon, implies a slip rate of ∼2 mm/yr, based on geological considerations. The Totschunda fault has a maximum slip rate of ∼9 mm/yr. The Denali fault system is transpressional and there are active thrust faults on both the north and south sides of it. We explore four geometric models for southern Alaska tectonics to explain the slip rates along the Denali fault system and the active fault geometries: rotation, indentation, extrusion, and a combination of the three. We conclude that all three end-member models have strengths and shortcomings, and a combination of rotation, indentation, and extrusion best explains the slip rate observations.

Coseismic Slip Deficit of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Ormoc Earthquake That Occurred Along a Creeping Segment and Geothermal Field of the Philippine Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ying-Hui; Tsai, Min-Chien; Hu, Jyr-Ching; Aurelio, Mario A.; Hashimoto, Manabu; Escudero, John Agustin P.; Su, Zhe; Chen, Qiang

2018-03-01

Coseismic surface deformation imaged through interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements was used to estimate the fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2017 Mw 6.5 Ormoc earthquake along a creeping segment of the Philippine Fault on Leyte Island. Our best fitting faulting model suggests that the coseismic rupture occurred on a fault plane with high dip angle of 78.5° and strike angle of 325.8°, and the estimated maximum fault slip of 2.3 m is located at 6.5 km east-northeast of the town of Kananga. The recognized insignificant slip in the Tongonan geothermal field zone implies that the plastic behavior caused by high geothermal gradient underneath the Tongonan geothermal field could prevent the coseismic failure in heated rock mass in this zone. The predicted Coulomb failure stress change shows that a significant positive Coulomb failure stress change occurred along the SE segment of central Philippine Fault with insignificant coseismic slip and infrequent aftershocks, which suggests an increasing risk for future seismic hazard.

Energy budget and propagation of faults via shearing and opening using work optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madden, Elizabeth H.; Cooke, Michele L.; McBeck, Jessica

2017-08-01

We present numerical models of faults propagating by work optimization in a homogeneous medium. These simulations allow quantification and comparison of the energy budgets of fault growth by shear versus tensile failure. The energy consumed by growth of a fault, Wgrow, propagating by in-line shearing is 76% of the total energy associated with that growth, while 24% is spent on frictional work during propagation. Wgrow for a fault propagating into intact rock by tensile failure, at an angle to the parent fault, consumes 60% of the work budget, while only 6% is consumed by frictional work associated with propagation. Following the conservation of energy, this leaves 34% of the energy budget available for other activities and suggests that out-of-plane propagation of faults in Earth's crust may release energy for other processes, such as permanent damage zone formation or rupture acceleration. Comparison of these estimates of Wgrow with estimates of the critical energy release rate and earthquake fracture energy at several scales underscores their theoretical similarities and their dependence on stress drop.

Studying the Effects of Transparent vs. Opaque Shallow Thrust Faults Using Synthetic P and SH Seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. E.; Aagaard, B. T.; Heaton, T. H.

2001-12-01

It has been hypothesized (Brune, 1996) that teleseismic inversions may underestimate the moment of shallow thrust fault earthquakes if energy becomes trapped in the hanging wall of the fault, i.e. if the fault boundary becomes opaque. We address this by creating and analyzing synthetic P and SH seismograms for a variety of friction models. There are a total of five models: (1) crack model (slip weakening) with instantaneous healing (2) crack model without healing (3) crack model with zero sliding friction (4) pulse model (slip and rate weakening) (5) prescribed model (Haskell-like rupture with the same final slip and peak slip-rate as model 4). Models 1-4 are all dynamic models where fault friction laws determine the rupture history. This allows feedback between the ongoing rupture and waves from the beginning of the rupture that hit the surface and reflect downwards. Hence, models 1-4 can exhibit opaque fault characteristics. Model 5, a prescribed rupture, allows for no interaction between the rupture and reflected waves, therefore, it is a transparent fault. We first produce source time functions for the different friction models by rupturing shallow thrust faults in 3-D dynamic finite-element simulations. The source time functions are used as point dislocations in a teleseismic body-wave code. We examine the P and SH waves for different azimuths and epicentral distances. The peak P and S first arrival displacement amplitudes for the crack, crack with healing and pulse models are all very similar. These dynamic models with opaque faults produce smaller peak P and S first arrivals than the prescribed, transparent fault. For example, a fault with strike = 90 degrees, azimuth = 45 degrees has P arrivals smaller by about 30% and S arrivals smaller by about 15%. The only dynamic model that doesn't fit this pattern is the crack model with zero sliding friction. It oscillates around its equilibrium position; therefore, it overshoots and yields an excessively large peak first arrival. In general, it appears that the dynamic, opaque faults have smaller peak teleseismic displacements that would lead to lower moment estimates by a modest amount.

Three Least-Squares Minimization Approaches to Interpret Gravity Data Due to Dipping Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelrahman, E. M.; Essa, K. S.

2015-02-01

We have developed three different least-squares minimization approaches to determine, successively, the depth, dip angle, and amplitude coefficient related to the thickness and density contrast of a buried dipping fault from first moving average residual gravity anomalies. By defining the zero-anomaly distance and the anomaly value at the origin of the moving average residual profile, the problem of depth determination is transformed into a constrained nonlinear gravity inversion. After estimating the depth of the fault, the dip angle is estimated by solving a nonlinear inverse problem. Finally, after estimating the depth and dip angle, the amplitude coefficient is determined using a linear equation. This method can be applied to residuals as well as to measured gravity data because it uses the moving average residual gravity anomalies to estimate the model parameters of the faulted structure. The proposed method was tested on noise-corrupted synthetic and real gravity data. In the case of the synthetic data, good results are obtained when errors are given in the zero-anomaly distance and the anomaly value at the origin, and even when the origin is determined approximately. In the case of practical data (Bouguer anomaly over Gazal fault, south Aswan, Egypt), the fault parameters obtained are in good agreement with the actual ones and with those given in the published literature.

Optimal filtering and Bayesian detection for friction-based diagnostics in machines.

PubMed

Ray, L R; Townsend, J R; Ramasubramanian, A

2001-01-01

Non-model-based diagnostic methods typically rely on measured signals that must be empirically related to process behavior or incipient faults. The difficulty in interpreting a signal that is indirectly related to the fundamental process behavior is significant. This paper presents an integrated non-model and model-based approach to detecting when process behavior varies from a proposed model. The method, which is based on nonlinear filtering combined with maximum likelihood hypothesis testing, is applicable to dynamic systems whose constitutive model is well known, and whose process inputs are poorly known. Here, the method is applied to friction estimation and diagnosis during motion control in a rotating machine. A nonlinear observer estimates friction torque in a machine from shaft angular position measurements and the known input voltage to the motor. The resulting friction torque estimate can be analyzed directly for statistical abnormalities, or it can be directly compared to friction torque outputs of an applicable friction process model in order to diagnose faults or model variations. Nonlinear estimation of friction torque provides a variable on which to apply diagnostic methods that is directly related to model variations or faults. The method is evaluated experimentally by its ability to detect normal load variations in a closed-loop controlled motor driven inertia with bearing friction and an artificially-induced external line contact. Results show an ability to detect statistically significant changes in friction characteristics induced by normal load variations over a wide range of underlying friction behaviors.

Models of recurrent strike-slip earthquake cycles and the state of crustal stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyzenga, Gregory A.; Raefsky, Arthur; Mulligan, Stephanie G.

1991-01-01

Numerical models of the strike-slip earthquake cycle, assuming a viscoelastic asthenosphere coupling model, are examined. The time-dependent simulations incorporate a stress-driven fault, which leads to tectonic stress fields and earthquake recurrence histories that are mutually consistent. Single-fault simulations with constant far-field plate motion lead to a nearly periodic earthquake cycle and a distinctive spatial distribution of crustal shear stress. The predicted stress distribution includes a local minimum in stress at depths less than typical seismogenic depths. The width of this stress 'trough' depends on the magnitude of crustal stress relative to asthenospheric drag stresses. The models further predict a local near-fault stress maximum at greater depths, sustained by the cyclic transfer of strain from the elastic crust to the ductile asthenosphere. Models incorporating both low-stress and high-stress fault strength assumptions are examined, under Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology assumptions. Model results suggest a preference for low-stress (a shear stress level of about 10 MPa) fault models, in agreement with previous estimates based on heat flow measurements and other stress indicators.

A Method to Simultaneously Detect the Current Sensor Fault and Estimate the State of Energy for Batteries in Electric Vehicles

PubMed Central

Xu, Jun; Wang, Jing; Li, Shiying; Cao, Binggang

2016-01-01

Recently, State of energy (SOE) has become one of the most fundamental parameters for battery management systems in electric vehicles. However, current information is critical in SOE estimation and current sensor is usually utilized to obtain the latest current information. However, if the current sensor fails, the SOE estimation may be confronted with large error. Therefore, this paper attempts to make the following contributions: Current sensor fault detection and SOE estimation method is realized simultaneously. Through using the proportional integral observer (PIO) based method, the current sensor fault could be accurately estimated. By taking advantage of the accurate estimated current sensor fault, the influence caused by the current sensor fault can be eliminated and compensated. As a result, the results of the SOE estimation will be influenced little by the fault. In addition, the simulation and experimental workbench is established to verify the proposed method. The results indicate that the current sensor fault can be estimated accurately. Simultaneously, the SOE can also be estimated accurately and the estimation error is influenced little by the fault. The maximum SOE estimation error is less than 2%, even though the large current error caused by the current sensor fault still exists. PMID:27548183

A Method to Simultaneously Detect the Current Sensor Fault and Estimate the State of Energy for Batteries in Electric Vehicles.

PubMed

Xu, Jun; Wang, Jing; Li, Shiying; Cao, Binggang

2016-08-19

Recently, State of energy (SOE) has become one of the most fundamental parameters for battery management systems in electric vehicles. However, current information is critical in SOE estimation and current sensor is usually utilized to obtain the latest current information. However, if the current sensor fails, the SOE estimation may be confronted with large error. Therefore, this paper attempts to make the following contributions: Current sensor fault detection and SOE estimation method is realized simultaneously. Through using the proportional integral observer (PIO) based method, the current sensor fault could be accurately estimated. By taking advantage of the accurate estimated current sensor fault, the influence caused by the current sensor fault can be eliminated and compensated. As a result, the results of the SOE estimation will be influenced little by the fault. In addition, the simulation and experimental workbench is established to verify the proposed method. The results indicate that the current sensor fault can be estimated accurately. Simultaneously, the SOE can also be estimated accurately and the estimation error is influenced little by the fault. The maximum SOE estimation error is less than 2%, even though the large current error caused by the current sensor fault still exists.

Finite-frequency wave propagation through outer rise fault zones and seismic measurements of upper mantle hydration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Nathaniel; Lizarralde, Daniel

2016-01-01

Effects of serpentine-filled fault zones on seismic wave propagation in the upper mantle at the outer rise of subduction zones are evaluated using acoustic wave propagation models. Modeled wave speeds depend on azimuth, with slowest speeds in the fault-normal direction. Propagation is fastest along faults, but, for fault widths on the order of the seismic wavelength, apparent wave speeds in this direction depend on frequency. For the 5–12 Hz Pn arrivals used in tomographic studies, joint-parallel wavefronts are slowed by joints. This delay can account for the slowing seen in tomographic images of the outer rise upper mantle. At the Middle America Trench, confining serpentine to fault zones, as opposed to a uniform distribution, reduces estimates of bulk upper mantle hydration from ~3.5 wt % to as low as 0.33 wt % H2O.

Examining Relay Ramp Evolution Through Paleo-shoreline Deformation Analysis, Warner Valley Fault, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C. S.; Dawers, N. H.

2017-12-01

Fault growth is often accomplished by linking a series of en echelon faults through relay ramps. A relay ramp is the area between two overlapping fault segments that tilts and deforms as the faults accrue displacement. The structural evolution of breached normal fault relay ramps remains poorly understood because of the difficulty in defining how slip is partitioned between the most basinward fault (known as the outboard fault), the overlapping fault (inboard fault), and any ramp-breaching linking faults. Along the Warner Valley fault in south-central Oregon, two relay ramps displaying different fault linkage geometries are lined with a series of paleo-lacustrine shorelines that record a Pleistocene paleolake regression. The inner edges of these shorelines act as paleo-horizontal datums that have been deformed by fault activity, and are used to measure relative slip variations across the relay ramp bounding faults. By measuring the elevation changes using a 10m digital elevation model (DEM) of shoreline inner edges, we estimate the amount of slip partitioned between the inboard, outboard and ramp-breaching linking faults. In order to attribute shoreline deformation to fault activity we identify shoreline elevation anomalies, where deformation exceeds a ± 3.34 m window, which encompass our conservative estimates of natural variability in the shoreline geomorphology and the error associated with the data collection. Fault activity along the main length of the fault for each ramp-breaching style is concentrated near the intersection of the linking fault and the outboard portion of the main fault segment. However, fault activity along the outboard fault tip varies according to breaching style. At a footwall breach the entire outboard fault tip appears relatively inactive. At a mid-ramp breach the outboard fault tip remains relatively active because of the proximity of the linking fault to this fault tip.

State and actuator fault estimation observer design integrated in a riderless bicycle stabilization system.

PubMed

Brizuela Mendoza, Jorge Aurelio; Astorga Zaragoza, Carlos Manuel; Zavala Río, Arturo; Pattalochi, Leo; Canales Abarca, Francisco

2016-03-01

This paper deals with an observer design for Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems with high-order time-varying parameter dependency. The proposed design, considered as the main contribution of this paper, corresponds to an observer for the estimation of the actuator fault and the system state, considering measurement noise at the system outputs. The observer gains are computed by considering the extension of linear systems theory to polynomial LPV systems, in such a way that the observer reaches the characteristics of LPV systems. As a result, the actuator fault estimation is ready to be used in a Fault Tolerant Control scheme, where the estimated state with reduced noise should be used to generate the control law. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been tested using a riderless bicycle model with dependency on the translational velocity v, where the control objective corresponds to the system stabilization towards the upright position despite the variation of v along the closed-loop system trajectories. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Boundary element analysis of active mountain building and stress heterogeneity proximal to the 2015 Nepal earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. B.; Meade, B. J.

2015-12-01

The Himalayas are the tallest mountains on Earth with ten peaks exceeding 8000 meters, including Mt. Everest. The geometrically complex fault system at the Himalayan Range Front produces both great relief and great earthquakes, like the recent Mw=7.8 Nepal rupture. Here, we develop geometrically accurate elastic boundary element models of the fault system at the Himalayan Range Front including the Main Central Thrust, South Tibetan Detachment, Main Frontal Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust, the basal detachment, and surface topography. Using these models, we constrain the tectonic driving forces and frictional fault strength required to explain Quaternary fault slip rate estimates. These models provide a characterization of the heterogeneity of internal stress in the region surrounding the 2015 Nepal earthquake.

Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Devries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen

2016-01-01

A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM <~ 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM >~ 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

Study on the evaluation method for fault displacement based on characterized source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonagi, M.; Takahama, T.; Matsumoto, Y.; Inoue, N.; Irikura, K.; Dalguer, L. A.

2016-12-01

In IAEA Specific Safety Guide (SSG) 9 describes that probabilistic methods for evaluating fault displacement should be used if no sufficient basis is provided to decide conclusively that the fault is not capable by using the deterministic methodology. In addition, International Seismic Safety Centre compiles as ANNEX to realize seismic hazard for nuclear facilities described in SSG-9 and shows the utility of the deterministic and probabilistic evaluation methods for fault displacement. In Japan, it is required that important nuclear facilities should be established on ground where fault displacement will not arise when earthquakes occur in the future. Under these situations, based on requirements, we need develop evaluation methods for fault displacement to enhance safety in nuclear facilities. We are studying deterministic and probabilistic methods with tentative analyses using observed records such as surface fault displacement and near-fault strong ground motions of inland crustal earthquake which fault displacements arose. In this study, we introduce the concept of evaluation methods for fault displacement. After that, we show parts of tentative analysis results for deterministic method as follows: (1) For the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, referring slip distribution estimated by waveform inversion, we construct a characterized source model (Miyake et al., 2003, BSSA) which can explain observed near-fault broad band strong ground motions. (2) Referring a characterized source model constructed in (1), we study an evaluation method for surface fault displacement using hybrid method, which combines particle method and distinct element method. At last, we suggest one of the deterministic method to evaluate fault displacement based on characterized source model. This research was part of the 2015 research project `Development of evaluating method for fault displacement` by the Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA), Japan.

Comparison of age distributions estimated from environmental tracers by using binary-dilution and numerical models of fractured and folded karst: Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.; Plummer, Niel; Kauffman, Leon J.; Doctor, Daniel H.; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

2013-01-01

Measured concentrations of environmental tracers in spring discharge from a karst aquifer in the Shenandoah Valley, USA, were used to refine a numerical groundwater flow model. The karst aquifer is folded and faulted carbonate bedrock dominated by diffuse flow along fractures. The numerical model represented bedrock structure and discrete features (fault zones and springs). Concentrations of 3H, 3He, 4He, and CFC-113 in spring discharge were interpreted as binary dilutions of young (0–8 years) water and old (tracer-free) water. Simulated mixtures of groundwater are derived from young water flowing along shallow paths, with the addition of old water flowing along deeper paths through the model domain that discharge to springs along fault zones. The simulated median age of young water discharged from springs (5.7 years) is slightly older than the median age estimated from 3H/3He data (4.4 years). The numerical model predicted a fraction of old water in spring discharge (0.07) that was half that determined by the binary-dilution model using the 3H/3He apparent age and 3H and CFC-113 data (0.14). This difference suggests that faults and lineaments are more numerous or extensive than those mapped and included in the numerical model.

Slip along the Sultanhanı Fault in Central Anatolia from deformed Pleistocene shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya and implications for seismic hazards in low-strain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnick, Daniel; Yıldırım, Cengiz; Hillemann, Christian; Garcin, Yannick; Çiner, Attila; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta; Strecker, Manfred R.

2017-06-01

Central Anatolia is a low-relief, high-elevation region where decadal-scale deformation rates estimated from space geodesy suggest low strain rates within a stiff microplate. However, numerous Quaternary faults have been mapped within this low-strain region and estimating their slip rate and seismic potential is important for hazard assessments in an area of increasing infrastructural development. Here we focus on the Sultanhanı Fault (SF), which constitutes an integral part of the Eskişehir-Cihanbeyli Fault System, and use deformed maximum highstand shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya to estimate tectonic slip rates at millennial scale. Some of these shorelines were previously interpreted as fault scarps, but we provide conclusive evidence for their erosional origin. We found that shoreline-angle elevations estimated from differential GPS profiles record vertical displacements of 10.2 m across the SF. New radiocarbon ages of lacustrine molluscs suggest 22.4 m of relative lake-level fall between 22.1 ± 0.3 and 21.7 ± 0.4 cal. ka BP, constraining the timing of abrupt abandonment of the highstand shoreline. Models of lithospheric rebound associated with regressions of the Tuz Gölü and Konya palaeo-lakes predict only ∼1 m of regional-scale uplift across the Konya Basin. Dislocation models of displaced shorelines suggest fault-slip rates of 1.5 and 1.8 mm yr-1 for planar and listric fault geometries, respectively, providing reasonable results for the latter. We found fault scarps in the Nasuhpınar mudflat that likely represent the most recent ground-breaking rupture of the SF, with an average vertical displacement of 1.2 ± 0.5 m estimated from 54 topographic profiles, equivalent to a M ∼ 6.5-6.9 earthquake based on empirical scaling laws. If such events were characteristic during the ultimate 21 ka, a relatively short recurrence time of ∼800-900 yr would be needed to account for the millennial slip rate. Alternatively, the fault scarp at Nasuhpınar might represent a larger earthquake requiring more frequent smaller events to account for the millennial rate. The relatively fast slip rate of the SF over the past 21 ka is unlikely to have persisted over longer timescales and might reflect spatiotemporal variations in deformation rates within kinematically-linked fault systems within Central Anatolia, or a transient perturbation to the local stress field or fault strength. Such perturbation might have been related to climatically controlled changes in surface and near-surface loads and by interactions among the different tectonic processes that have been proposed to drive the overall slow uplift and associated extension in the Central Anatolian Plateau.

Eigenvector of gravity gradient tensor for estimating fault dips considering fault type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusumoto, Shigekazu

2017-12-01

The dips of boundaries in faults and caldera walls play an important role in understanding their formation mechanisms. The fault dip is a particularly important parameter in numerical simulations for hazard map creation as the fault dip affects estimations of the area of disaster occurrence. In this study, I introduce a technique for estimating the fault dip using the eigenvector of the observed or calculated gravity gradient tensor on a profile and investigating its properties through numerical simulations. From numerical simulations, it was found that the maximum eigenvector of the tensor points to the high-density causative body, and the dip of the maximum eigenvector closely follows the dip of the normal fault. It was also found that the minimum eigenvector of the tensor points to the low-density causative body and that the dip of the minimum eigenvector closely follows the dip of the reverse fault. It was shown that the eigenvector of the gravity gradient tensor for estimating fault dips is determined by fault type. As an application of this technique, I estimated the dip of the Kurehayama Fault located in Toyama, Japan, and obtained a result that corresponded to conventional fault dip estimations by geology and geomorphology. Because the gravity gradient tensor is required for this analysis, I present a technique that estimates the gravity gradient tensor from the gravity anomaly on a profile.

Optimal Non-Invasive Fault Classification Model for Packaged Ceramic Tile Quality Monitoring Using MMW Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Smriti; Singh, Dharmendra

2016-04-01

Millimeter wave (MMW) frequency has emerged as an efficient tool for different stand-off imaging applications. In this paper, we have dealt with a novel MMW imaging application, i.e., non-invasive packaged goods quality estimation for industrial quality monitoring applications. An active MMW imaging radar operating at 60 GHz has been ingeniously designed for concealed fault estimation. Ceramic tiles covered with commonly used packaging cardboard were used as concealed targets for undercover fault classification. A comparison of computer vision-based state-of-the-art feature extraction techniques, viz, discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelet transform (WT), principal component analysis (PCA), gray level co-occurrence texture (GLCM), and histogram of oriented gradient (HOG) has been done with respect to their efficient and differentiable feature vector generation capability for undercover target fault classification. An extensive number of experiments were performed with different ceramic tile fault configurations, viz., vertical crack, horizontal crack, random crack, diagonal crack along with the non-faulty tiles. Further, an independent algorithm validation was done demonstrating classification accuracy: 80, 86.67, 73.33, and 93.33 % for DFT, WT, PCA, GLCM, and HOG feature-based artificial neural network (ANN) classifier models, respectively. Classification results show good capability for HOG feature extraction technique towards non-destructive quality inspection with appreciably low false alarm as compared to other techniques. Thereby, a robust and optimal image feature-based neural network classification model has been proposed for non-invasive, automatic fault monitoring for a financially and commercially competent industrial growth.

Estimating Stresses, Fault Friction and Fluid Pressure from Topography and Coseismic Slip Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Styron, R. H.; Hetland, E. A.

2014-12-01

Stress is a first-order control on the deformation state of the earth. However, stress is notoriously hard to measure, and researchers typically only estimate the directions and relative magnitudes of principal stresses, with little quantification of the uncertainties or absolute magnitude. To improve upon this, we have developed methods to constrain the full stress tensor field in a region surrounding a fault, including tectonic, topographic, and lithostatic components, as well as static friction and pore fluid pressure on the fault. Our methods are based on elastic halfspace techniques for estimating topographic stresses from a DEM, and we use a Bayesian approach to estimate accumulated tectonic stress, fluid pressure, and friction from fault geometry and slip rake, assuming Mohr-Coulomb fault mechanics. The nature of the tectonic stress inversion is such that either the stress maximum or minimum is better constrained, depending on the topography and fault deformation style. Our results from the 2008 Wenchuan event yield shear stresses from topography up to 20 MPa (normal-sinistral shear sense) and topographic normal stresses up to 80 MPa on the faults; tectonic stress had to be large enough to overcome topography to produce the observed reverse-dextral slip. Maximum tectonic stress is constrained to be >0.3 * lithostatic stress (depth-increasing), with a most likely value around 0.8, trending 90-110°E. Minimum tectonic stress is about half of maximum. Static fault friction is constrained at 0.1-0.4, and fluid pressure at 0-0.6 * total pressure on the fault. Additionally, the patterns of topographic stress and slip suggest that topographic normal stress may limit fault slip once failure has occurred. Preliminary results from the 2013 Balochistan earthquake are similar, but yield stronger constraints on the upper limits of maximum tectonic stress, as well as tight constraints on the magnitude of minimum tectonic stress and stress orientation. Work in progress on the Wasatch fault suggests that maximum tectonic stress may also be able to be constrained, and that some of the shallow rupture segmentation may be due in part to localized topographic loading. Future directions of this work include regions where high relief influences fault kinematics (such as Tibet).

Estimation of the depth of faulting in the northeast margin of Argyre basin (Mars) by structural analysis of lobate scarps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero-Gil, Andrea; Ruiz, Javier; Egea-González, Isabel; Romeo, Ignacio

2017-04-01

Lobate scarps are tectonic structures considered as the topographic expression of thrust faults. For this study we have chosen three large lobate scarps (Ogygis Rupes, Bosporos Rupes and a third unnamed one) located in Aonia Terra, in the southern hemisphere of Mars near the northeast margin of the Argyre impact basin. These lobate scarps strike parallel to the edge of Thaumasia in this area, showing a roughly arcuate to linear form and an asymmetric cross section with a steeply frontal scarp and a gently dipping back scarp. The asymmetry in the cross sections suggests that the three lobate scarps were generated by ESE-vergent thrust faults. Two complementary methods were used to analyze the faults underlying these lobate scarps based on Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter data and the Mars imagery available: (i) analyzing topographic profiles together with the horizontal shortening estimations from cross-cut craters to create balanced cross sections on the basis of thrust fault propagation folding [1]; (ii) using a forward mechanical dislocation method [2], which predicts fault geometry by comparing model outputs with real topography. The objective is to obtain fault geometry parameters as the minimum value for the horizontal offset, dip angle and depth of faulting of each underlying fault. By comparing the results obtained by both methods we estimate a preliminary depth of faulting value between 15 and 26 kilometers for this zone between Thaumasia and Argyre basin. The significant sizes of the faults underlying these three lobate scarps suggest that their detachments are located at a main rheological change. Estimates of the depth of faulting in similar lobate scarps on Mars or Mercury [3] have been associated to the depth of the brittle-ductile transition. [1] Suppe (1983), Am. J. Sci., 283, 648-721; Seeber and Sorlien (2000), Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 112, 1067-1079. [2] Toda et al. (1998) JGR, 103, 24543-24565. [3] i.e. Schultz and Watters (2001) Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4659-4662; Ruiz et al. (2008) EPSL, 270, 1-12; Egea-Gonzalez et al. (2012) PSS, 60, 193-198; Mueller et al. (2014) EPSL, 408, 100-109.

Kinematics of shallow backthrusts in the Seattle fault zone, Washington State

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pratt, Thomas L.; Troost, K.G.; Odum, Jackson K.; Stephenson, William J.

2015-01-01

Near-surface thrust fault splays and antithetic backthrusts at the tips of major thrust fault systems can distribute slip across multiple shallow fault strands, complicating earthquake hazard analyses based on studies of surface faulting. The shallow expression of the fault strands forming the Seattle fault zone of Washington State shows the structural relationships and interactions between such fault strands. Paleoseismic studies document an ∼7000 yr history of earthquakes on multiple faults within the Seattle fault zone, with some backthrusts inferred to rupture in small (M ∼5.5–6.0) earthquakes at times other than during earthquakes on the main thrust faults. We interpret seismic-reflection profiles to show three main thrust faults, one of which is a blind thrust fault directly beneath downtown Seattle, and four small backthrusts within the Seattle fault zone. We then model fault slip, constrained by shallow deformation, to show that the Seattle fault forms a fault propagation fold rather than the alternatively proposed roof thrust system. Fault slip modeling shows that back-thrust ruptures driven by moderate (M ∼6.5–6.7) earthquakes on the main thrust faults are consistent with the paleoseismic data. The results indicate that paleoseismic data from the back-thrust ruptures reveal the times of moderate earthquakes on the main fault system, rather than indicating smaller (M ∼5.5–6.0) earthquakes involving only the backthrusts. Estimates of cumulative shortening during known Seattle fault zone earthquakes support the inference that the Seattle fault has been the major seismic hazard in the northern Cascadia forearc in the late Holocene.

Building a 3D faulted a priori model for stratigraphic inversion: Illustration of a new methodology applied on a North Sea field case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rainaud, Jean-François; Clochard, Vincent; Delépine, Nicolas; Crabié, Thomas; Poudret, Mathieu; Perrin, Michel; Klein, Emmanuel

2018-07-01

Accurate reservoir characterization is needed all along the development of an oil and gas field study. It helps building 3D numerical reservoir simulation models for estimating the original oil and gas volumes in place and for simulating fluid flow behaviors. At a later stage of the field development, reservoir characterization can also help deciding which recovery techniques need to be used for fluids extraction. In complex media, such as faulted reservoirs, flow behavior predictions within volumes close to faults can be a very challenging issue. During the development plan, it is necessary to determine which types of communication exist between faults or which potential barriers exist for fluid flows. The solving of these issues rests on accurate fault characterization. In most cases, faults are not preserved along reservoir characterization workflows. The memory of the interpreted faults from seismic is not kept during seismic inversion and further interpretation of the result. The goal of our study is at first to integrate a 3D fault network as a priori information into a model-based stratigraphic inversion procedure. Secondly, we apply our methodology on a well-known oil and gas case study over a typical North Sea field (UK Northern North Sea) in order to demonstrate its added value for determining reservoir properties. More precisely, the a priori model is composed of several geological units populated by physical attributes, they are extrapolated from well log data following the deposition mode, but usually a priori model building methods respect neither the 3D fault geometry nor the stratification dips on the fault sides. We address this difficulty by applying an efficient flattening method for each stratigraphic unit in our workflow. Even before seismic inversion, the obtained stratigraphic model has been directly used to model synthetic seismic on our case study. Comparisons between synthetic seismic obtained from our 3D fault network model give much lower residuals than with a "basic" stratigraphic model. Finally, we apply our model-based inversion considering both faulted and non-faulted a priori models. By comparing the rock impedances results obtain in the two cases, we can see a better delineation of the Brent-reservoir compartments by using the 3D faulted a priori model built with our method.

Hydromechanical heterogeneities of a mature fault zone: impacts on fluid flow.

PubMed

Jeanne, Pierre; Guglielmi, Yves; Cappa, Frédéric

2013-01-01

In this paper, fluid flow is examined for a mature strike-slip fault zone with anisotropic permeability and internal heterogeneity. The hydraulic properties of the fault zone were first characterized in situ by microgeophysical (VP and σc ) and rock-quality measurements (Q-value) performed along a 50-m long profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Then, the local hydrogeological context of the fault was modified to conduct a water-injection test. The resulting fluid pressures and flow rates through the different fault-zone compartments were then analyzed with a two-phase fluid-flow numerical simulation. Fault hydraulic properties estimated from the injection test signals were compared to the properties estimated from the multiscale geological approach. We found that (1) the microgeophysical measurements that we made yield valuable information on the porosity and the specific storage coefficient within the fault zone and (2) the Q-value method highlights significant contrasts in permeability. Fault hydrodynamic behavior can be modeled by a permeability tensor rotation across the fault zone and by a storativity increase. The permeability tensor rotation is linked to the modification of the preexisting fracture properties and to the development of new fractures during the faulting process, whereas the storativity increase results from the development of micro- and macrofractures that lower the fault-zone stiffness and allows an increased extension of the pore space within the fault damage zone. Finally, heterogeneities internal to the fault zones create complex patterns of fluid flow that reflect the connections of paths with contrasting properties. © 2013, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

A fault‐based model for crustal deformation in the western United States based on a combined inversion of GPS and geologic inputs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2017-01-01

We develop a crustal deformation model to determine fault‐slip rates for the western United States (WUS) using the Zeng and Shen (2014) method that is based on a combined inversion of Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geological slip‐rate constraints. The model consists of six blocks with boundaries aligned along major faults in California and the Cascadia subduction zone, which are represented as buried dislocations in the Earth. Faults distributed within blocks have their geometrical structure and locking depths specified by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) and the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map Project model. Faults slip beneath a predefined locking depth, except for a few segments where shallow creep is allowed. The slip rates are estimated using a least‐squares inversion. The model resolution analysis shows that the resulting model is influenced heavily by geologic input, which fits the UCERF3 geologic bounds on California B faults and ±one‐half of the geologic slip rates for most other WUS faults. The modeled slip rates for the WUS faults are consistent with the observed GPS velocity field. Our fit to these velocities is measured in terms of a normalized chi‐square, which is 6.5. This updated model fits the data better than most other geodetic‐based inversion models. Major discrepancies between well‐resolved GPS inversion rates and geologic‐consensus rates occur along some of the northern California A faults, the Mojave to San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas fault, the western Garlock fault, the southern segment of the Wasatch fault, and other faults. Off‐fault strain‐rate distributions are consistent with regional tectonics, with a total off‐fault moment rate of 7.2×1018">7.2×1018 and 8.5×1018  N·m/year">8.5×1018  N⋅m/year for California and the WUS outside California, respectively.

Coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan, determined from GPS measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ching, K.-E.; Rau, R.-J.; Zeng, Y.

2007-01-01

A coseismic source model of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, Taiwan, earthquake was well determined with 213 GPS stations, providing a unique opportunity to study the characteristics of coseismic displacements of a high-angle buried reverse fault. Horizontal coseismic displacements show fault-normal shortening across the fault trace. Displacements on the hanging wall reveal fault-parallel and fault-normal lengthening. The largest horizontal and vertical GPS displacements reached 153 and 302 mm, respectively, in the middle part of the network. Fault geometry and slip distribution were determined by inverting GPS data using a three-dimensional (3-D) layered-elastic dislocation model. The slip is mainly concentrated within a 44 ?? 14 km slip patch centered at 15 km depth with peak amplitude of 126.6 cm. Results from 3-D forward-elastic model tests indicate that the dome-shaped folding on the hanging wall is reproduced with fault dips greater than 40??. Compared with the rupture area and average slip from slow slip earthquakes and a compilation of finite source models of 18 earthquakes, the Chengkung earthquake generated a larger rupture area and a lower stress drop, suggesting lower than average friction. Hence the Chengkung earthquake seems to be a transitional example between regular and slow slip earthquakes. The coseismic source model of this event indicates that the Chihshang fault is divided into a creeping segment in the north and the locked segment in the south. An average recurrence interval of 50 years for a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was estimated for the southern fault segment. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Slip rate of the Húsavík-Flatey Fault, North Iceland, derived from GPS and InSAR Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, S.; Jonsson, S.

2010-12-01

The Húsavík-Flatey fault is one of mainly two parallel fault zones within the Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ), North Iceland. The TFZ is a transform zone and a 120km-offset between two segments of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, accommodating the 18.2mm/year spreading motion between the North American and the Eurasian Plate at this latitude (NUVEL 1A). Geodetic research mostly concentrates on a relatively short 20km onshore portion of the Húsavík-Flatey fault, as the rest of the whole transform zone, including the Grímsey lineament to the Northeast, is located offshore. The fact that a coastal town with 2300 inhabitants has been built directly at the fault surface trace increases the importance of studying this area. No major earthquake has occurred in the vicinity of the town since two M6.3 earthquakes took place in 1872. Hence, there is a compelling need to estimate the fault slip rate, slip deficit and finally, the seismic risk to which this town is exposed to, as the interseismic part of the current earthquake cycle may be drawing to a close. We use geodetic data, both continuous GPS and satellite radar interferograms (InSAR) to determine the interseismic deformation field around the on-land portion of the Húsavík-Flatey fault. The continuous GPS stations have been recording data since 2006 or longer at 14 sites within the TFZ. In addition, we use time-series analysis of ERS radar interferograms from 1992 to 2000 to derive interseismic velocities across the fault. We simulate the resulting deformation field with an interseismic back-slip model consisting of planar dislocations in an elastic half space and constrain the associated model parameters using a non-linear optimization approach. It has earlier been estimated that only 40% of the total motion is concentrated on the Húsavík-Flatey fault, while the larger 60% is taken up by the Grímsey lineament. This estimate however, was based on only three continuous GPS stations. Including more GPS data, we find that the partial motion on the Húsavík-Flatey fault is even less, closer to 30% and that the locking depth is relatively shallow. The exact parameter values, however, depend significantly on the modeling assumptions. Still, the results show that if moment has been accumulating on the Húsavík-Flatey fault at the current rate since 1872, then the total accumulated moment corresponds to an earthquake of magnitude just below 7.

A Novel Online Data-Driven Algorithm for Detecting UAV Navigation Sensor Faults.

PubMed

Sun, Rui; Cheng, Qi; Wang, Guanyu; Ochieng, Washington Yotto

2017-09-29

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has increased significantly in recent years. On-board integrated navigation sensors are a key component of UAVs' flight control systems and are essential for flight safety. In order to ensure flight safety, timely and effective navigation sensor fault detection capability is required. In this paper, a novel data-driven Adaptive Neuron Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)-based approach is presented for the detection of on-board navigation sensor faults in UAVs. Contrary to the classic UAV sensor fault detection algorithms, based on predefined or modelled faults, the proposed algorithm combines an online data training mechanism with the ANFIS-based decision system. The main advantages of this algorithm are that it allows real-time model-free residual analysis from Kalman Filter (KF) estimates and the ANFIS to build a reliable fault detection system. In addition, it allows fast and accurate detection of faults, which makes it suitable for real-time applications. Experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method in terms of accuracy and misdetection rate.

Field Injection Test in the Host Rock nearby a Fault Zone - Stress Determination and Fault Hydraulic Diffusivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsopela, A.; Guglielmi, Y.; Donze, F. V.; De Barros, L.; Henry, P.; Castilla, R.; Gout, C.

2017-12-01

Fluid injections associated with human activities are well known to induce perturbations in the ambient rock mass. In particular, the hydromechanical response of a nearby fault under an increase of the pore pressure is of great interest in permeability as well as seismicity related problems. We present a field injection experiment conducted in the host rock 4m away from a fault affecting Toarcian shales (Tournemire massif, France). The site was densely instrumented and during the test the pressure, displacements and seismicity were recorded in order to capture the hydro-mechanical response of the surrounding stimulated volume. A numerical model was used including the reactivated structure at the injection point interacting with a plane representing the main fault orientation. A number of calculations were performed in order to estimate the injection characteristics and the state of stress of the test. By making use of the recorded seismic events location an attempt is made to reproduce the spatio-temporal characteristics of the microseismicity cloud. We have introduced in the model heterogeneous frictional properties along the fault plane that result in flow and rupture channeling effects. Based on the spatio-temporal characteristics of these rupture events we attempt to estimate the resulting hydraulic properties of the fault according to the triggering front concept proposed by Shapiro et al. (2002). The effect of the frictional heterogeneities and the fault orientation on the resulting hydraulic diffusivity is discussed. We have so far observed in our model that by statistically taking into account the frictional heterogeneities in our analysis, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the rupture events and the recovered hydraulic properties of the fault are in a satisfying agreement. References: Shapiro, S. A., Rothert, E., Rath, V., & Rindschwentner, J. (2002). Characterization of fluid transport properties of reservoirs using induced microseismicity. Geophysics, 67(1), 212-220.

Paleogeodesy of the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains Frontal Thrusts, Silicon Valley, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aron, F.; Johnstone, S. A.; Mavrommatis, A. P.; Sare, R.; Hilley, G. E.

2015-12-01

We present a method to infer long-term fault slip rate distributions using topography by coupling a three-dimensional elastic boundary element model with a geomorphic incision rule. In particular, we used a 10-m-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to calculate channel steepness (ksn) throughout the actively deforming southern Santa Cruz Mountains in Central California. We then used these values with a power-law incision rule and the Poly3D code to estimate slip rates over seismogenic, kilometer-scale thrust faults accommodating differential uplift of the relief throughout geologic time. Implicit in such an analysis is the assumption that the topographic surface remains unchanged over time as rock is uplifted by slip on the underlying structures. The fault geometries within the area are defined based on surface mapping, as well as active and passive geophysical imaging. Fault elements are assumed to be traction-free in shear (i.e., frictionless), while opening along them is prohibited. The free parameters in the inversion include the components of the remote strain-rate tensor (ɛij) and the bedrock resistance to channel incision (K), which is allowed to vary according to the mapped distribution of geologic units exposed at the surface. The nonlinear components of the geomorphic model required the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which simulated the posterior density of the components of the remote strain-rate tensor and values of K for the different mapped geologic units. Interestingly, posterior probability distributions of ɛij and K fall well within the broad range of reported values, suggesting that the joint use of elastic boundary element and geomorphic models may have utility in estimating long-term fault slip-rate distributions. Given an adequate DEM, geologic mapping, and fault models, the proposed paleogeodetic method could be applied to other crustal faults with geological and morphological expressions of long-term uplift.

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.F.; Schwartz, D.P.

2008-01-01

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Complementary Ruptures of Surface Ruptures and Deep Asperity during the 2014 Northern Nagano, Japan, Earthquake (MW 6.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Kubo, H.

2015-12-01

A thrust earthquake of MW 6.3 occurred along the northern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL) in the northern Nagano prefecture, central Japan, on November 22, 2014. This event was reported to be related to an active fault, the Kamishiro fault belonging to the ISTL (e.g., HERP, 2014). The surface rupture is observed along the Kamishiro fault (e.g., Lin et al., 2015; Okada et al., 2015). We estimated the kinematic source rupture process of this earthquake through the multiple time-window linear waveform inversion method (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983). We used velocity waveforms in 0.05-1 Hz from 12 strong motion stations of K-NET, KiK-net (NIED), JMA, and Nagano prefecture (SK-net, ERI). In order to enhance the reliability in Green's functions, we assumed one-dimensional velocity structure models different for the different stations, which were extracted from the nation-wide three-dimensional velocity structure model, Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (JIVSM, Koketsu et al., 2012). Considering the spatial distribution of aftershocks (Sakai et al., 2015) and surface ruptures, the assumed fault model consisted of two dip-bending fault segments with different dip angles between the northern and southern segments. The total length and width of the fault plane is 20 km and 13 km, relatively, and the fault model is divided into 260 subfaults of 1 km × 1 km in space and six smoothed ramp functions in time. An asperity or large slip area with a peak slip of 1.9 m was estimated in the lower plane of the northern segment in the approximate depth range of 4 to 8 km. The depth extent of this asperity is consistent with the seismogenic zone revealed by past studies (e.g., Panayotopoulos et al., 2014). In contrast, the slip in the southern segment is relatively concentrated in the shallow portion of the segment where the surface ruptures were found along the Kamishiro fault. The overall spatial rupture pattern of the source fault, in which the deep asperity was located on the northern segment and surface rupture was found on the southern segment, seems to be spatially consistent with the mapped active faults. These findings suggest characteristic and repeating features of fault ruptures along active faults where static offsets have accumulated over past events, and it would be a good constraint on earthquake scenarios along it.

Practical Methods for Estimating Software Systems Fault Content and Location

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikora, A.; Schneidewind, N.; Munson, J.

1999-01-01

Over the past several years, we have developed techniques to discriminate between fault-prone software modules and those that are not, to estimate a software system's residual fault content, to identify those portions of a software system having the highest estimated number of faults, and to estimate the effects of requirements changes on software quality.

Fault Slip Distribution and Optimum Sea Surface Displacement of the 2017 Tehuantepec Earthquake in Mexico (Mw 8.2) Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Mulia, I. E.

2017-12-01

An intraplate normal fault earthquake (Mw 8.2) occurred on 8 September 2017 in the Tehuantepec seismic gap of the Middle America Trench. The submarine earthquake generated a tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore DART buoys. We used the tsunami waveforms recorded at 16 stations to estimate the fault slip distribution and an optimum sea surface displacement of the earthquake. A steep fault dipping to the northeast with strike of 315°, dip of 73°and rake of -96° based on the USGS W-phase moment tensor solution was assumed for the slip inversion. To independently estimate the sea surface displacement without assuming earthquake fault parameters, we used the B-spline function for the unit sources. The distribution of the unit sources was optimized by a Genetic Algorithm - Pattern Search (GA-PS) method. Tsunami waveform inversion resolves a spatially compact region of large slip (4-10 m) with a dimension of 100 km along the strike and 80 km along the dip in the depth range between 40 km and 110 km. The seismic moment calculated from the fault slip distribution with assumed rigidity of 6 × 1010 Nm-2 is 2.46 × 1021 Nm (Mw 8.2). The optimum displacement model suggests that the sea surface was uplifted up to 0.5 m and subsided down to -0.8 m. The deep location of large fault slip may be the cause of such small sea surface displacements. The simulated tsunami waveforms from the optimum sea surface displacement can reproduce the observations better than those from fault slip distribution; the normalized root mean square misfit for the sea surface displacement is 0.89, while that for the fault slip distribution is 1.04. We simulated the tsunami propagation using the optimum sea surface displacement model. Large tsunami amplitudes up to 2.5 m were predicted to occur inside and around a lagoon located between Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas. Figure 1. a) Sea surface displacement for the 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake estimated by tsunami waveforms. b) Map of simulated maximum tsunami amplitude and comparison between observed (blue circles) and simulated (red circles) tsunami maximum amplitude along the coast.

Faulting and groundwater in a desert environment: constraining hydrogeology using time-domain electromagnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bedrosian, Paul A.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Nishikawa, Tracy

2013-01-01

Within the south-western Mojave Desert, the Joshua Basin Water District is considering applying imported water into infiltration ponds in the Joshua Tree groundwater sub-basin in an attempt to artificially recharge the underlying aquifer. Scarce subsurface hydrogeological data are available near the proposed recharge site; therefore, time-domain electromagnetic (TDEM) data were collected and analysed to characterize the subsurface. TDEM soundings were acquired to estimate the depth to water on either side of the Pinto Mountain Fault, a major east-west trending strike-slip fault that transects the proposed recharge site. While TDEM is a standard technique for groundwater investigations, special care must be taken when acquiring and interpreting TDEM data in a twodimensional (2D) faulted environment. A subset of the TDEM data consistent with a layered-earth interpretation was identified through a combination of three-dimensional (3D) forward modelling and diffusion time-distance estimates. Inverse modelling indicates an offset in water table elevation of nearly 40 m across the fault. These findings imply that the fault acts as a low-permeability barrier to groundwater flow in the vicinity of the proposed recharge site. Existing production wells on the south side of the fault, together with a thick unsaturated zone and permeable near-surface deposits, suggest the southern half of the study area is suitable for artificial recharge. These results illustrate the effectiveness of targeted TDEM in support of hydrological studies in a heavily faulted desert environment where data are scarce and the cost of obtaining these data by conventional drilling techniques is prohibitive.

Earthquake Rate Model 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Ross S.

2007-01-01

Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted earthquake magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an earthquake rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).

A Model-Based Probabilistic Inversion Framework for Wire Fault Detection Using TDR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuet, Stefan R.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Wheeler, Kevin R.

2010-01-01

Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is one of the standard methods for diagnosing faults in electrical wiring and interconnect systems, with a long-standing history focused mainly on hardware development of both high-fidelity systems for laboratory use and portable hand-held devices for field deployment. While these devices can easily assess distance to hard faults such as sustained opens or shorts, their ability to assess subtle but important degradation such as chafing remains an open question. This paper presents a unified framework for TDR-based chafing fault detection in lossy coaxial cables by combining an S-parameter based forward modeling approach with a probabilistic (Bayesian) inference algorithm. Results are presented for the estimation of nominal and faulty cable parameters from laboratory data.

Airborne LiDAR analysis and geochronology of faulted glacial moraines in the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone reveal substantial seismic hazards in the Lake Tahoe region, California-Nevada USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howle, James F.; Bawden, Gerald W.; Schweickert, Richard A.; Finkel, Robert C.; Hunter, Lewis E.; Rose, Ronn S.; von Twistern, Brent

2012-01-01

We integrated high-resolution bare-earth airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery with field observations and modern geochronology to characterize the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone, which forms the neotectonic boundary between the Sierra Nevada and the Basin and Range Province west of Lake Tahoe. The LiDAR imagery clearly delineates active normal faults that have displaced late Pleistocene glacial moraines and Holocene alluvium along 30 km of linear, right-stepping range front of the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone. Herein, we illustrate and describe the tectonic geomorphology of faulted lateral moraines. We have developed new, three-dimensional modeling techniques that utilize the high-resolution LiDAR data to determine tectonic displacements of moraine crests and alluvium. The statistically robust displacement models combined with new ages of the displaced Tioga (20.8 ± 1.4 ka) and Tahoe (69.2 ± 4.8 ka; 73.2 ± 8.7 ka) moraines are used to estimate the minimum vertical separation rate at 17 sites along the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone. Near the northern end of the study area, the minimum vertical separation rate is 1.5 ± 0.4 mm/yr, which represents a two- to threefold increase in estimates of seismic moment for the Lake Tahoe basin. From this study, we conclude that potential earthquake moment magnitudes (Mw) range from 6.3 ± 0.25 to 6.9 ± 0.25. A close spatial association of landslides and active faults suggests that landslides have been seismically triggered. Our study underscores that the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone poses substantial seismic and landslide hazards.

A method for mapping apparent stress and energy radiation applied to the 1994 Northridge earthquake fault zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

2000-01-01

Using the Northridge earthquake as an example, we demonstrate a new technique able to resolve apparent stress within subfaults of a larger fault plane. From the model of Wald et al. (1996), we estimated apparent stress for each subfault using τa = (G/β)/2 where G is the modulus of rigidity, β is the shear wave speed, and is the average slip rate. The image of apparent stress mapped over the Northridge fault plane supports the idea that the stresses causing fault slip are inhomogeneous, but limited by the strength of the crust. Indeed, over the depth range 5 to 17 km, maximum values of apparent stress for a given depth interval agree with τa(max)=0.06S(z), where S is the laboratory estimate of crustal strength as a function of depth z. The seismic energy from each subfault was estimated from the product τaDA, where A is subfault area and D its slip. Over the fault zone, we found that the radiated energy is quite variable spatially, with more than 50% of the total coming from just 15% of the subfaults.

Plate rotations, fault slip rates, fault locking, and distributed deformation in northern Central America from 1999-2017 GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, A. P.; DeMets, C.; Briole, P.; Cosenza, B.; Flores, O.; Guzman-Speziale, M.; Hernandez, D.; Kostoglodov, V.; La Femina, P. C.; Lord, N. E.; Lasserre, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; McCaffrey, R.; Molina, E.; Rodriguez, M.; Staller, A.; Rogers, R.

2017-12-01

We describe plate rotations, fault slip rates, and fault locking estimated from a new 100-station GPS velocity field at the western end of the Caribbean plate, where the Motagua-Polochic fault zone, Middle America trench, and Central America volcanic arc faults converge. In northern Central America, fifty-one upper-plate earthquakes caused approximately 40,000 fatalities since 1900. The proximity of main population centers to these destructive earthquakes and the resulting loss of human life provide strong motivation for studying the present-day tectonics of Central America. Plate rotations, fault slip rates, and deformation are quantified via a two-stage inversion of daily GPS position time series using TDEFNODE modeling software. In the first stage, transient deformation associated with three M>7 earthquakes in 2009 and 2012 is estimated and removed from the GPS position time series. In Stage 2, linear velocities determined from the corrected GPS time series are inverted to estimate deformation within the western Caribbean plate, slip rates along the Motagua-Polochic faults and faults in the Central America volcanic arc, and the gradient of extension in the Honduras-Guatemala wedge. Major outcomes of the second inversion include the following: (1) Confirmation that slip rates on the Motagua fault decrease from 17-18 mm/yr at its eastern end to 0-5 mm/yr at its western end, in accord with previous results. (2) A transition from moderate subduction zone locking offshore from southern Mexico and parts of southern Guatemala to weak or zero coupling offshore from El Salvador and parts of Nicaragua along the Middle America trench. (3) Evidence for significant east-west extension in southern Guatemala between the Motagua fault and volcanic arc. Our study also shows evidence for creep on the eastern Motagua fault that diminishes westward along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary.

Investigation of possibility of surface rupture derived from PFDHA and calculation of surface displacement based on dislocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.; Kitada, N.; Irikura, K.

2013-12-01

A probability of surface rupture is important to configure the seismic source, such as area sources or fault models, for a seismic hazard evaluation. In Japan, Takemura (1998) estimated the probability based on the historical earthquake data. Kagawa et al. (2004) evaluated the probability based on a numerical simulation of surface displacements. The estimated probability indicates a sigmoid curve and increases between Mj (the local magnitude defined and calculated by Japan Meteorological Agency) =6.5 and Mj=7.0. The probability of surface rupture is also used in a probabilistic fault displacement analysis (PFDHA). The probability is determined from the collected earthquake catalog, which were classified into two categories: with surface rupture or without surface rupture. The logistic regression is performed for the classified earthquake data. Youngs et al. (2003), Ross and Moss (2011) and Petersen et al. (2011) indicate the logistic curves of the probability of surface rupture by normal, reverse and strike-slip faults, respectively. Takao et al. (2013) shows the logistic curve derived from only Japanese earthquake data. The Japanese probability curve shows the sharply increasing in narrow magnitude range by comparison with other curves. In this study, we estimated the probability of surface rupture applying the logistic analysis to the surface displacement derived from a surface displacement calculation. A source fault was defined in according to the procedure of Kagawa et al. (2004), which determined a seismic moment from a magnitude and estimated the area size of the asperity and the amount of slip. Strike slip and reverse faults were considered as source faults. We applied Wang et al. (2003) for calculations. The surface displacements with defined source faults were calculated by varying the depth of the fault. A threshold value as 5cm of surface displacement was used to evaluate whether a surface rupture reach or do not reach to the surface. We carried out the logistic regression analysis to the calculated displacements, which were classified by the above threshold. The estimated probability curve indicated the similar trend to the result of Takao et al. (2013). The probability of revere faults is larger than that of strike slip faults. On the other hand, PFDHA results show different trends. The probability of reverse faults at higher magnitude is lower than that of strike slip and normal faults. Ross and Moss (2011) suggested that the sediment and/or rock over the fault compress and not reach the displacement to the surface enough. The numerical theory applied in this study cannot deal with a complex initial situation such as topography.

Towards a Millennial Time-scale Vertical Deformation Field in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordovaos, P. A.; Johnson, K. M.

2015-12-01

Pete Bordovalos and Kaj M. Johnson To better understand the feedbacks between erosion and deformation in Taiwan, we need constraints on the millennial time-scale vertical field. Dense GPS and leveling data sets in Taiwan provide measurements of the present-day vertical deformation field over the entire Taiwan island. However, it is unclear how much of this vertical field is transient (varies over earthquake cycle) or steady (over millennial time scale). A deformation model is required to decouple transient from steady deformation. This study takes a look at how the 82 mm/yr of convergence motion between the Eurasian plate and the Philippine Sea plate is distributed across the faults on Taiwan. We build a plate flexure model that consists of all known active faults and subduction zones cutting through an elastic plate supported by buoyancy. We use horizontal and vertical GPS data, leveling data, and geologic surface uplift rates with a Monte Carlo probabilistic inversion method to infer fault slip rates and locking depths on all faults. Using our model we examine how different fault geometries influence the estimates of distribution of slip along faults and deformation patterns.

Paleoearthquakes at Frazier Mountain, California delimit extent and frequency of past San Andreas Fault ruptures along 1857 trace

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharer, Katherine M.; Weldon, Ray; Streig, Ashley; Fumal, Thomas

2014-01-01

Large earthquakes are infrequent along a single fault, and therefore historic, well-characterized earthquakes exert a strong influence on fault behavior models. This is true of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (estimated M7.7–7.9) on the southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF), but an outstanding question is whether the 330 km long rupture was typical. New paleoseismic data for six to seven ground-rupturing earthquakes on the Big Bend of the SSAF restrict the pattern of possible ruptures on the 1857 stretch of the fault. In conjunction with existing sites, we show that over the last ~650 years, at least 75% of the surface ruptures are shorter than the 1857 earthquake, with estimated rupture lengths of 100 to <300 km. These results suggest that the 1857 rupture was unusual, perhaps leading to the long open interval, and that a return to pre-1857 behavior would increase the rate of M7.3–M7.7 earthquakes.

InSAR observations of aseismic slip associated with an earthquake swarm in the Columbia River flood basalts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicks, Charles; Thelen, W.; Weaver, C.; Gomberg, J.; Rohay, A.; Bodin, P.

2011-01-01

In 2009 a swarm of small shallow earthquakes occurred within the basalt flows of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The swarm occurred within a dense seismic network in the U.S. Department of Energys Hanford Site. Data from the seismic network along with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agencys (ESA) ENVISAT satellite provide insight into the nature of the swarm. By modeling the InSAR deformation data we constructed a model that consists of a shallow thrust fault and a near horizontal fault. We suggest that the near horizontal lying fault is a bedding-plane fault located between basalt flows. The geodetic moment of the modeled fault system is about eight times the cumulative seismic moment of the swarm. Precise location estimates of the swarm earthquakes indicate that the area of highest slip on the thrust fault, ???70mm of slip less than ???0.5km depth, was not located within the swarm cluster. Most of the slip on the faults appears to have progressed aseismically and we suggest that interbed sediments play a central role in the slip process. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Simultaneous Event-Triggered Fault Detection and Estimation for Stochastic Systems Subject to Deception Attacks.

PubMed

Li, Yunji; Wu, QingE; Peng, Li

2018-01-23

In this paper, a synthesized design of fault-detection filter and fault estimator is considered for a class of discrete-time stochastic systems in the framework of event-triggered transmission scheme subject to unknown disturbances and deception attacks. A random variable obeying the Bernoulli distribution is employed to characterize the phenomena of the randomly occurring deception attacks. To achieve a fault-detection residual is only sensitive to faults while robust to disturbances, a coordinate transformation approach is exploited. This approach can transform the considered system into two subsystems and the unknown disturbances are removed from one of the subsystems. The gain of fault-detection filter is derived by minimizing an upper bound of filter error covariance. Meanwhile, system faults can be reconstructed by the remote fault estimator. An recursive approach is developed to obtain fault estimator gains as well as guarantee the fault estimator performance. Furthermore, the corresponding event-triggered sensor data transmission scheme is also presented for improving working-life of the wireless sensor node when measurement information are aperiodically transmitted. Finally, a scaled version of an industrial system consisting of local PC, remote estimator and wireless sensor node is used to experimentally evaluate the proposed theoretical results. In particular, a novel fault-alarming strategy is proposed so that the real-time capacity of fault-detection is guaranteed when the event condition is triggered.

Using strain rates to forecast seismic hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Eileen

2017-01-01

One essential component in forecasting seismic hazards is observing the gradual accumulation of tectonic strain accumulation along faults before this strain is suddenly released as earthquakes. Typically, seismic hazard models are based on geologic estimates of slip rates along faults and historical records of seismic activity, neither of which records actively accumulating strain. But this strain can be estimated by geodesy: the precise measurement of tiny position changes of Earth’s surface, obtained from GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), or a variety of other instruments.

Three-dimensional characterization of microporosity and permeability in fault zones hosted in heterolithic succession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegel, H. B.; Zambrano, M.; Jablonska, D.; Emanuele, T.; Agosta, F.; Mattioni, L.; Rustichelli, A.

2017-12-01

The hydraulic properties of fault zones depend upon the individual contributions of the damage zone and the fault core. In the case of the damage zone, it is generally characterized by means of fracture analysis and modelling implementing multiple approaches, for instance the discrete fracture network model, the continuum model, and the channel network model. Conversely, the fault core is more difficult to characterize because it is normally composed of fine grain material generated by friction and wear. If the dimensions of the fault core allows it, the porosity and permeability are normally studied by means of laboratory analysis or in the other case by two dimensional microporosity analysis and in situ measurements of permeability (e.g. micro-permeameter). In this study, a combined approach consisting of fracture modeling, three-dimensional microporosity analysis, and computational fluid dynamics was applied to characterize the hydraulic properties of fault zones. The studied fault zones crosscut a well-cemented heterolithic succession (sandstone and mudstones) and may vary in terms of fault core thickness and composition, fracture properties, kinematics (normal or strike-slip), and displacement. These characteristics produce various splay and fault core behavior. The alternation of sandstone and mudstone layers is responsible for the concurrent occurrence of brittle (fractures) and ductile (clay smearing) deformation. When these alternating layers are faulted, they produce corresponding fault cores which act as conduits or barriers for fluid migration. When analyzing damage zones, accurate field and data acquisition and stochastic modeling was used to determine the hydraulic properties of the rock volume, in relation to the surrounding, undamaged host rock. In the fault cores, the three-dimensional pore network quantitative analysis based on X-ray microtomography images includes porosity, pore connectivity, and specific surface area. In addition, images were used to perform computational fluid simulation (Lattice-Boltzmann multi relaxation time method) and estimate the permeability. These results will be useful for understanding the deformation process and hydraulic properties across meter-scale damage zones.

Model of the porphyry copper and polymetallic vein family of deposits - Applications in Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.

2003-01-01

A tectonic model useful in estimating the occurrence of undiscovered porphyry copper and polymetallic vein systems has been developed. This model is based on the manner in which magmatic and hydrothermal fluids flow and are trapped in fault systems as far-field stress is released in tectonic strain features above subducting plates (e.g. strike-slip fault systems). The structural traps include preferred locations for stock emplacement and tensional-shear fault meshes within the step-overs that localize porphyry- and vein-style deposits. The application of the model is illustrated for the porphyry copper and polymetallic vein deposits in the Central Slovakian Volcanic Field, Slovakia; the Ma??tra Mountains, Hungary; and the Apuseni Mountains, Romania.

Hybrid Neural-Network: Genetic Algorithm Technique for Aircraft Engine Performance Diagnostics Developed and Demonstrated

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L.

2002-01-01

As part of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, a unique model-based diagnostics method that employs neural networks and genetic algorithms for aircraft engine performance diagnostics has been developed and demonstrated at the NASA Glenn Research Center against a nonlinear gas turbine engine model. Neural networks are applied to estimate the internal health condition of the engine, and genetic algorithms are used for sensor fault detection, isolation, and quantification. This hybrid architecture combines the excellent nonlinear estimation capabilities of neural networks with the capability to rank the likelihood of various faults given a specific sensor suite signature. The method requires a significantly smaller data training set than a neural network approach alone does, and it performs the combined engine health monitoring objectives of performance diagnostics and sensor fault detection and isolation in the presence of nominal and degraded engine health conditions.

Study on the Evaluation Method for Fault Displacement: Probabilistic Approach Based on Japanese Earthquake Rupture Data - Principal fault displacements -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitada, N.; Inoue, N.; Tonagi, M.

2016-12-01

The purpose of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA) is estimate fault displacement values and its extent of the impact. There are two types of fault displacement related to the earthquake fault: principal fault displacement and distributed fault displacement. Distributed fault displacement should be evaluated in important facilities, such as Nuclear Installations. PFDHA estimates principal fault and distributed fault displacement. For estimation, PFDHA uses distance-displacement functions, which are constructed from field measurement data. We constructed slip distance relation of principal fault displacement based on Japanese strike and reverse slip earthquakes in order to apply to Japan area that of subduction field. However, observed displacement data are sparse, especially reverse faults. Takao et al. (2013) tried to estimate the relation using all type fault systems (reverse fault and strike slip fault). After Takao et al. (2013), several inland earthquakes were occurred in Japan, so in this time, we try to estimate distance-displacement functions each strike slip fault type and reverse fault type especially add new fault displacement data set. To normalized slip function data, several criteria were provided by several researchers. We normalized principal fault displacement data based on several methods and compared slip-distance functions. The normalized by total length of Japanese reverse fault data did not show particular trend slip distance relation. In the case of segmented data, the slip-distance relationship indicated similar trend as strike slip faults. We will also discuss the relation between principal fault displacement distributions with source fault character. According to slip distribution function (Petersen et al., 2011), strike slip fault type shows the ratio of normalized displacement are decreased toward to the edge of fault. However, the data set of Japanese strike slip fault data not so decrease in the end of the fault. This result indicates that the fault displacement is difficult to appear at the edge of the fault displacement in Japan. This research was part of the 2014-2015 research project `Development of evaluating method for fault displacement` by the Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), Japan.

A plate boundary earthquake record from a wetland adjacent to the Alpine fault in New Zealand refines hazard estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochran, U. A.; Clark, K. J.; Howarth, J. D.; Biasi, G. P.; Langridge, R. M.; Villamor, P.; Berryman, K. R.; Vandergoes, M. J.

2017-04-01

Discovery and investigation of millennial-scale geological records of past large earthquakes improve understanding of earthquake frequency, recurrence behaviour, and likelihood of future rupture of major active faults. Here we present a ∼2000 year-long, seven-event earthquake record from John O'Groats wetland adjacent to the Alpine fault in New Zealand, one of the most active strike-slip faults in the world. We linked this record with the 7000 year-long, 22-event earthquake record from Hokuri Creek (20 km along strike to the north) to refine estimates of earthquake frequency and recurrence behaviour for the South Westland section of the plate boundary fault. Eight cores from John O'Groats wetland revealed a sequence that alternated between organic-dominated and clastic-dominated sediment packages. Transitions from a thick organic unit to a thick clastic unit that were sharp, involved a significant change in depositional environment, and were basin-wide, were interpreted as evidence of past surface-rupturing earthquakes. Radiocarbon dates of short-lived organic fractions either side of these transitions were modelled to provide estimates for earthquake ages. Of the seven events recognised at the John O'Groats site, three post-date the most recent event at Hokuri Creek, two match events at Hokuri Creek, and two events at John O'Groats occurred in a long interval during which the Hokuri Creek site may not have been recording earthquakes clearly. The preferred John O'Groats-Hokuri Creek earthquake record consists of 27 events since ∼6000 BC for which we calculate a mean recurrence interval of 291 ± 23 years, shorter than previously estimated for the South Westland section of the fault and shorter than the current interseismic period. The revised 50-year conditional probability of a surface-rupturing earthquake on this fault section is 29%. The coefficient of variation is estimated at 0.41. We suggest the low recurrence variability is likely to be a feature of other strike-slip plate boundary faults similar to the Alpine fault.

Crustal strain near the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault: Analysis of the Los Padres-Tehachapi Trilateration Networks, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberhart-Phillips, Donna; Lisowski, Michael; Zoback, Mark D.

1990-02-01

In the region of the Los Padres-Tehachapi geodetic network, the San Andreas fault (SAF) changes its orientation by over 30° from N40°W, close to that predicted by plate motion for a transform boundary, to N73°W. The strain orientation near the SAF is consistent with right-lateral shear along the fault, with maximum shear rate of 0.38±0.01 μrad/yr at N63°W. In contrast, away from the SAF the strain orientations on both sides of the fault are consistent with the plate motion direction, with maximum shear rate of 0.19±0.01 μrad/yr at N44°W. The strain rate does not drop off rapidly away from the fault, and thus the area is fit by either a broad shear zone below the SAF or a single fault with a relatively deep locking depth. The fit to the line length data is poor for locking depth d less than 25 km. For d of 25 km a buried slip rate of 30 ± 6 mm/yr is estimated. We also estimated buried slip for models that included the Garlock and Big Pine faults, in addition to the SAF. Slip rates on other faults are poorly constrained by the Los Padres-Tehachapi network. The best fitting Garlock fault model had computed left-lateral slip rate of 11±2 mm/yr below 10 km. Buried left-lateral slip of 15±6 mm/yr on the Big Pine fault, within the Western Transverse Ranges, provides significant reduction in line length residuals; however, deformation there may be more complicated than a single vertical fault. A subhorizontal detachment on the southern side of the SAF cannot be well constrained by these data. We investigated the location of the SAF and found that a vertical fault below the surface trace fits the data much better than either a dipping fault or a fault zone located south of the surface trace.

Salton Trough Post-seismic Afterslip, Viscoelastic Response, and Contribution to Regional Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G. A.

2012-12-01

The El Mayor-Cucapah M7.2 April 4 2010 earthquake in Baja California may have affected accumulated hazard to Southern California cities due to loading of regional faults including the Elsinore, San Jacinto and southern San Andreas, faults which already have over a century of tectonic loading. We examine changes observed via multiple seismic and geodetic techniques, including micro seismicity and proposed seismicity-based indicators of hazard, high-quality fault models, the Plate Boundary Observatory GNSS array (with 174 stations showing post-seismic transients with greater than 1 mm amplitude), and interferometric radar maps from UAVSAR (aircraft) flights, showing a network of aseismic fault slip events at distances up to 60 km from the end of the surface rupture. Finite element modeling is used to compute the expected coseismic motions at GPS stations with general agreement, including coseismic uplift at sites ~200 km north of the rupture. Postseismic response is also compared, with GNSS and also with the CIG software "RELAX." An initial examination of hazard is made comparing micro seismicity-based metrics, fault models, and changes to coulomb stress on nearby faults using the finite element model. Comparison of seismicity with interferograms and historic earthquakes show aseismic slip occurs on fault segments that have had earthquakes in the last 70 years, while other segments show no slip at the surface but do show high triggered seismicity. UAVSAR-based estimates of fault slip can be incorporated into the finite element model to correct Coloumb stress change.

Comparison of Observed Spatio-temporal Aftershock Patterns with Earthquake Simulator Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2013-12-01

Due to the complex nature of faulting in southern California, knowledge of rupture behavior near fault step-overs is of critical importance to properly quantify and mitigate seismic hazards. Estimates of earthquake probability are complicated by the uncertainty that a rupture will stop at or jump a fault step-over, which affects both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of earthquakes. In recent years, earthquake simulators and dynamic rupture models have begun to address the effects of complex fault geometries on earthquake ground motions and rupture propagation. Early models incorporated vertical faults with highly simplified geometries. Many current studies examine the effects of varied fault geometry, fault step-overs, and fault bends on rupture patterns; however, these works are limited by the small numbers of integrated fault segments and simplified orientations. The previous work of Kroll et al., 2013 on the northern extent of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah rupture in the Yuha Desert region uses precise aftershock relocations to show an area of complex conjugate faulting within the step-over region between the Elsinore and Laguna Salada faults. Here, we employ an innovative approach of incorporating this fine-scale fault structure defined through seismological, geologic and geodetic means in the physics-based earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore the effects of fine-scale structures on stress transfer and rupture propagation and examine the mechanisms that control aftershock activity and local triggering of other large events. We run simulations with primary fault structures in state of California and northern Baja California and incorporate complex secondary faults in the Yuha Desert region. These models produce aftershock activity that enables comparison between the observed and predicted distribution and allow for examination of the mechanisms that control them. We investigate how the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks are affected by changes to model parameters such as shear and normal stress, rate-and-state frictional properties, fault geometry, and slip rate.

An Integrated Approach for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

imon, Donald L.; Armstrong, Jeffrey B.

2012-01-01

A Kalman filter-based approach for integrated on-line aircraft engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics is presented. This technique is specifically designed for underdetermined estimation problems where there are more unknown system parameters representing deterioration and faults than available sensor measurements. A previously developed methodology is applied to optimally design a Kalman filter to estimate a vector of tuning parameters, appropriately sized to enable estimation. The estimated tuning parameters can then be transformed into a larger vector of health parameters representing system performance deterioration and fault effects. The results of this study show that basing fault isolation decisions solely on the estimated health parameter vector does not provide ideal results. Furthermore, expanding the number of the health parameters to address additional gas path faults causes a decrease in the estimation accuracy of those health parameters representative of turbomachinery performance deterioration. However, improved fault isolation performance is demonstrated through direct analysis of the estimated tuning parameters produced by the Kalman filter. This was found to provide equivalent or superior accuracy compared to the conventional fault isolation approach based on the analysis of sensed engine outputs, while simplifying online implementation requirements. Results from the application of these techniques to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and discussed.

Development of Final A-Fault Rupture Models for WGCEP/ NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Weldon, Ray J.; Parsons, Thomas; Wills, Chris J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Stein, Ross S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2008-01-01

This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of earthquake ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean recurrence-interval estimates). The first section below discusses segmentation-based models, where ruptures are assumed be confined to one or more identifiable segments. The second section discusses an un-segmented-model option, the third section discusses results and implications, and we end with a discussion of possible future improvements. General background information can be found in the main report.

Validation Methods Research for Fault-Tolerant Avionics and Control Systems Sub-Working Group Meeting. CARE 3 peer review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trivedi, K. S. (Editor); Clary, J. B. (Editor)

1980-01-01

A computer aided reliability estimation procedure (CARE 3), developed to model the behavior of ultrareliable systems required by flight-critical avionics and control systems, is evaluated. The mathematical models, numerical method, and fault-tolerant architecture modeling requirements are examined, and the testing and characterization procedures are discussed. Recommendations aimed at enhancing CARE 3 are presented; in particular, the need for a better exposition of the method and the user interface is emphasized.

A structural model decomposition framework for systems health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roychoudhury, I.; Daigle, M.; Bregon, A.; Pulido, B.

Systems health management (SHM) is an important set of technologies aimed at increasing system safety and reliability by detecting, isolating, and identifying faults; and predicting when the system reaches end of life (EOL), so that appropriate fault mitigation and recovery actions can be taken. Model-based SHM approaches typically make use of global, monolithic system models for online analysis, which results in a loss of scalability and efficiency for large-scale systems. Improvement in scalability and efficiency can be achieved by decomposing the system model into smaller local submodels and operating on these submodels instead. In this paper, the global system model is analyzed offline and structurally decomposed into local submodels. We define a common model decomposition framework for extracting submodels from the global model. This framework is then used to develop algorithms for solving model decomposition problems for the design of three separate SHM technologies, namely, estimation (which is useful for fault detection and identification), fault isolation, and EOL prediction. We solve these model decomposition problems using a three-tank system as a case study.

A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Systems Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roychoudhury, Indranil; Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Pulido, Belamino

2013-01-01

Systems health management (SHM) is an important set of technologies aimed at increasing system safety and reliability by detecting, isolating, and identifying faults; and predicting when the system reaches end of life (EOL), so that appropriate fault mitigation and recovery actions can be taken. Model-based SHM approaches typically make use of global, monolithic system models for online analysis, which results in a loss of scalability and efficiency for large-scale systems. Improvement in scalability and efficiency can be achieved by decomposing the system model into smaller local submodels and operating on these submodels instead. In this paper, the global system model is analyzed offline and structurally decomposed into local submodels. We define a common model decomposition framework for extracting submodels from the global model. This framework is then used to develop algorithms for solving model decomposition problems for the design of three separate SHM technologies, namely, estimation (which is useful for fault detection and identification), fault isolation, and EOL prediction. We solve these model decomposition problems using a three-tank system as a case study.

Earthquake-triggered liquefaction in Southern Siberia and surroundings: a base for predictive models and seismic hazard estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lunina, Oksana

2016-04-01

The forms and location patterns of soil liquefaction induced by earthquakes in southern Siberia, Mongolia, and northern Kazakhstan in 1950 through 2014 have been investigated, using field methods and a database of coseismic effects created as a GIS MapInfo application, with a handy input box for large data arrays. Statistical analysis of the data has revealed regional relationships between the magnitude (Ms) of an earthquake and the maximum distance of its environmental effect to the epicenter and to the causative fault (Lunina et al., 2014). Estimated limit distances to the fault for the Ms = 8.1 largest event are 130 km that is 3.5 times as short as those to the epicenter, which is 450 km. Along with this the wider of the fault the less liquefaction cases happen. 93% of them are within 40 km from the causative fault. Analysis of liquefaction locations relative to nearest faults in southern East Siberia shows the distances to be within 8 km but 69% of all cases are within 1 km. As a result, predictive models have been created for locations of seismic liquefaction, assuming a fault pattern for some parts of the Baikal rift zone. Base on our field and world data, equations have been suggested to relate the maximum sizes of liquefaction-induced clastic dikes (maximum width, visible maximum height and intensity index of clastic dikes) with Ms and local shaking intensity corresponding to the MSK-64 macroseismic intensity scale (Lunina and Gladkov, 2015). The obtained results make basis for modeling the distribution of the geohazard for the purposes of prediction and for estimating the earthquake parameters from liquefaction-induced clastic dikes. The author would like to express their gratitude to the Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for providing laboratory to carry out this research and Russian Scientific Foundation for their financial support (Grant 14-17-00007).

Strength reduction factors for seismic analyses of buildings exposed to near-fault ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Honglue; Zhang, Jianjing; Zhao, J. X.

2011-06-01

To estimate the near-fault inelastic response spectra, the accuracy of six existing strength reduction factors ( R) proposed by different investigators were evaluated by using a suite of near-fault earthquake records with directivity-induced pulses. In the evaluation, the force-deformation relationship is modelled by elastic-perfectly plastic, bilinear and stiffness degrading models, and two site conditions, rock and soil, are considered. The R-value ratio (ratio of the R value obtained from the existing R-expressions (or the R-µ- T relationships) to that from inelastic analyses) is used as a measurement parameter. Results show that the R-expressions proposed by Ordaz & Perez-Rocha are the most suitable for near-fault ground motions, followed by the Newmark & Hall and the Berrill et al. relationships. Based on an analysis using the near-fault ground motion dataset, new expressions of R that consider the effects of site conditions are presented and verified.

23 October 2011 (Mw=7.2) Van Earthquake (Turkey): Revised Coseismic and Postseismic Models from New GPS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, U.; Demir, D. O.; Cakir, Z.; Ergintav, S.; Cetin, S.; Ozdemir, A.; Reilinger, R. E.

2017-12-01

The 23 October 2011, Mw=7.2 Van Earthquake occurred in eastern Turkey on a thrust fault trending NE-SW and dipping to the north. We use GPS time series from the survey and continuous stations to determine coseismic deformation and to identify spatial and temporal changes in the near and far field due to postseismic processes (2011-2017). The coseismic deformation in the near field is derived from GPS data collected at 25 cadastral GPS survey sites. The coseismic horizontal displacements reach nearly 50 cm close to the surface trace of the fault that ruptured at depth during the earthquake. The density and distribution of the GPS sites allow us to better constrain the extent of the coseismic rupture using elastic dislocations on triangular faults embedded in a homogeneous, elastic half space. Modeling studies suggest that the coseismic rupture stopped west of the Erçek Lake before veering to the north. Estimated seismic moment is in good agreement with the seismologically and geodetically estimated seismic moment, estimated from the finite-fault model. Our preferred coseismic model consists of a simple elliptical slip patch centered at around 8 km depth with a maximum slip of about 2.5 m, consistent with the previous estimates based on InSAR measurements. The postseismic deformation field is derived from far field continuous GPS observations (10.2011 - 11.2017) and near field GPS campaigns (10.2011 - 09.2015). The postseismic time-series are fit better with a logarithmic than an exponential function, suggesting that the postseismic deformation is due to afterslip. Then, we modified our published postseismic model, using the coseismic model and data sets, extended until the end of 2017. The results show that during 6 years following the earthquake, after slip of up to 65 cm occurred at relatively shallow (< 10 km) depths, mostly above the deep coseismic slip that reaches depths > 15 km. New interpretations of the shallow afterslip, also, adds further evidence that the surface break observed after the earthquake was caused by coseismic stress changes rather than representing the coseismic fault. (This study is supported by TUBITAK no: 112Y109 project). Keywords: Van earthquake, GPS, coseismic, postseismic, deformation, elastic modeling

Strain Partitioning and Present-Day Fault Kinematics in NW Tibet From Envisat SAR Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daout, Simon; Doin, Marie-Pierre; Peltzer, Gilles; Lasserre, Cécile; Socquet, Anne; Volat, Matthieu; Sudhaus, Henriette

2018-03-01

An 8 year archive of Envisat synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data over a 300 × 500 km2 wide area in northwestern Tibet is analyzed to construct a line-of-sight map of the current surface velocity field. The resulting velocity map reveals (1) a velocity gradient across the Altyn Tagh fault, (2) a sharp velocity change along a structure following the base of the alluvial fans in southern Tarim, and (3) a broad velocity gradient, following the Jinsha suture. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar velocity field is combined with published GPS data to constrain the geometry and slip rates of a fault model consisting of a vertical fault plane under the Altyn Tagh fault and a shallow flat décollement ending in a steeper ramp on the Tarim side. The solutions converge toward 0.7 mm/yr of pure thrusting on the décollement-ramp system and 10.5 mm/yr of left-lateral strike-slip movement on the Altyn Tagh fault, below a 17 km locking depth. A simple elastic dislocation model across the Jinsha suture shows that data are consistent with 4-8 mm/yr of left-lateral shear across this structure. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing steps include implementing a stepwise unwrapping method starting with high-quality interferograms to assist in unwrapping noisier interferograms, iteratively estimating long-wavelength spatial ramps, and referencing all interferograms to bedrock pixels surrounding sedimentary basins. A specific focus on atmospheric delay estimation using the ERA-Interim model decreases the uncertainty on the velocity across the Tibet border by a factor of 2.

Geomechanical Modeling for Improved CO2 Storage Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutqvist, J.; Rinaldi, A. P.; Cappa, F.; Jeanne, P.; Mazzoldi, A.; Urpi, L.; Vilarrasa, V.; Guglielmi, Y.

2017-12-01

This presentation summarizes recent modeling studies on geomechanical aspects related to Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS,) including modeling potential fault reactivation, seismicity and CO2 leakage. The model simulations demonstrates that the potential for fault reactivation and the resulting seismic magnitude as well as the potential for creating a leakage path through overburden sealing layers (caprock) depends on a number of parameters such as fault orientation, stress field, and rock properties. The model simulations further demonstrate that seismic events large enough to be felt by humans requires brittle fault properties as well as continuous fault permeability allowing for the pressure to be distributed over a large fault patch to be ruptured at once. Heterogeneous fault properties, which are commonly encountered in faults intersecting multilayered shale/sandstone sequences, effectively reduce the likelihood of inducing felt seismicity and also effectively impede upward CO2 leakage. Site specific model simulations of the In Salah CO2 storage site showed that deep fractured zone responses and associated seismicity occurred in the brittle fractured sandstone reservoir, but at a very substantial reservoir overpressure close to the magnitude of the least principal stress. It is suggested that coupled geomechanical modeling be used to guide the site selection and assisting in identification of locations most prone to unwanted and damaging geomechanical changes, and to evaluate potential consequence of such unwanted geomechanical changes. The geomechanical modeling can be used to better estimate the maximum sustainable injection rate or reservoir pressure and thereby provide for improved CO2 storage security. Whether damaging geomechanical changes could actually occur very much depends on the local stress field and local reservoir properties such the presence of ductile rock and faults (which can aseismically accommodate for the stress and strain induced by the injection) or, on the contrary, the presence of more brittle faults that, if critically stressed for shear, might be more prone to induce felt seismicity.

The hazard education model in the high school science-club activities above active huge fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, R.

2017-12-01

Along the west coast of pacific ocean, includes Japan, there are huge numerous volcanoes and earthquakes. The biggest cause is their location on the border of plates. The pressure among the plates cause strains and cracks. By the island arc lines, strains make long and enormous faults. More than huge 150 faults are reported (the head quarters for earthquake research promotion, Japan, 2017). Below my working school, it is laying one of the biggest faults Nagamachi-Rifu line which is also laying under 1 million population city Sendai. Before 2011 Tohoku earthquake, one of the hugest earthquake was predicted because of the fault activities. Investigating the fault activity with our school student who live in the closest area is one of the most important hazard education. Therefore, now we are constructing the science club activity with make attention for (1) seeking fault line(s) with topographic land maps and on foot search (2) investigate boling core sample soils that was brought in our school founded. (1) Estimate of displacement of the faults on foot observation In order to seek the unknown fault line in Rifu area, at first it was needed to estimate on the maps(1:25,000 Scale Topographic Maps and Active Faults in Urban Area of Map(Sendai), Geographical Survey Institute of Japan). After that estimation, walked over the region with club students to observe slopes which was occurred by the faults activation and recorded on the maps. By observant slope gaps, there has a possibilities to have 3 or 4 fault lines that are located parallel to the known activate faults. (2) Investigate of the boling core samples above the fault. We investigated 6 columnar-shaped boling core samples which were excavated when the school has been built. The maximum depth of the samples are over 20m, some are new filled sands over original ash tephra and pumice from old volcanoes located west direction. In the club activities, we described column diagram of sediments and discussed the sediment circumstances by the sediments grain observation, however, it was impossible to describe the sediments origin of exact volcano(es).

Data-driven fault detection, isolation and estimation of aircraft gas turbine engine actuator and sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naderi, E.; Khorasani, K.

2018-02-01

In this work, a data-driven fault detection, isolation, and estimation (FDI&E) methodology is proposed and developed specifically for monitoring the aircraft gas turbine engine actuator and sensors. The proposed FDI&E filters are directly constructed by using only the available system I/O data at each operating point of the engine. The healthy gas turbine engine is stimulated by a sinusoidal input containing a limited number of frequencies. First, the associated system Markov parameters are estimated by using the FFT of the input and output signals to obtain the frequency response of the gas turbine engine. These data are then used for direct design and realization of the fault detection, isolation and estimation filters. Our proposed scheme therefore does not require any a priori knowledge of the system linear model or its number of poles and zeros at each operating point. We have investigated the effects of the size of the frequency response data on the performance of our proposed schemes. We have shown through comprehensive case studies simulations that desirable fault detection, isolation and estimation performance metrics defined in terms of the confusion matrix criterion can be achieved by having access to only the frequency response of the system at only a limited number of frequencies.

A Genetic Representation for Evolutionary Fault Recovery in Virtex FPGAs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lohn, Jason; Larchev, Greg; DeMara, Ronald; Korsmeyer, David (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

Most evolutionary approaches to fault recovery in FPGAs focus on evolving alternative logic configurations as opposed to evolving the intra-cell routing. Since the majority of transistors in a typical FPGA are dedicated to interconnect, nearly 80% according to one estimate, evolutionary fault-recovery systems should benefit hy accommodating routing. In this paper, we propose an evolutionary fault-recovery system employing a genetic representation that takes into account both logic and routing configurations. Experiments were run using a software model of the Xilinx Virtex FPGA. We report that using four Virtex combinational logic blocks, we were able to evolve a 100% accurate quadrature decoder finite state machine in the presence of a stuck-at-zero fault.

Design of on-board Bluetooth wireless network system based on fault-tolerant technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Zheng; Zhang, Xiangqi; Yu, Shijie; Tian, Hexiang

2007-11-01

In this paper, the Bluetooth wireless data transmission technology is applied in on-board computer system, to realize wireless data transmission between peripherals of the micro-satellite integrating electronic system, and in view of the high demand of reliability of a micro-satellite, a design of Bluetooth wireless network based on fault-tolerant technology is introduced. The reliability of two fault-tolerant systems is estimated firstly using Markov model, then the structural design of this fault-tolerant system is introduced; several protocols are established to make the system operate correctly, some related problems are listed and analyzed, with emphasis on Fault Auto-diagnosis System, Active-standby switch design and Data-Integrity process.

Power maximization of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines using passive adaptive neural fault tolerant control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Hamed; Rahimi Nohooji, Hamed; Howard, Ian

2017-09-01

Power maximization has always been a practical consideration in wind turbines. The question of how to address optimal power capture, especially when the system dynamics are nonlinear and the actuators are subject to unknown faults, is significant. This paper studies the control methodology for variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines including the effects of uncertain nonlinear dynamics, system fault uncertainties, and unknown external disturbances. The nonlinear model of the wind turbine is presented, and the problem of maximizing extracted energy is formulated by designing the optimal desired states. With the known system, a model-based nonlinear controller is designed; then, to handle uncertainties, the unknown nonlinearities of the wind turbine are estimated by utilizing radial basis function neural networks. The adaptive neural fault tolerant control is designed passively to be robust on model uncertainties, disturbances including wind speed and model noises, and completely unknown actuator faults including generator torque and pitch actuator torque. The Lyapunov direct method is employed to prove that the closed-loop system is uniformly bounded. Simulation studies are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

2015-12-01

Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

Seismicity and stress transfer studies in eastern California and Nevada: Implications for earthquake sources and tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, Gene Aaron

The source parameters for eastern California and western Nevada earthquakes are estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using a moment tensor inversion. We use the point source approximation and fit the seismograms, at long periods. We generated a moment tensor catalog for Mw > 4.0 since 1997 and Mw > 5.0 since 1990. The catalog includes centroid depths, seismic moments, and focal mechanisms. The regions with the most moderate sized earthquakes in the last decade were in aftershock zones located in Eureka Valley, Double Spring Flat, Coso, Ridgecrest, Fish Lake Valley, and Scotty's Junction. The remaining moderate size earthquakes were distributed across the region. The 1993 (Mw 6.0) Eureka Valley earthquake occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone. Careful aftershock relocations were used to resolve structure from aftershock clusters. The mainshock appears to rupture along the western side of the Last Change Range along a 30° to 60° west dipping fault plane, consistent with previous geodetic modeling. We estimate the source parameters for aftershocks at source-receiver distances less than 20 km using waveform modeling. The relocated aftershocks and waveform modeling results do not indicate any significant evidence of low angle faulting (dips > 30°. The results did reveal deformation along vertical faults within the hanging-wall block, consistent with observed surface rupture along the Saline Range above the dipping fault plane. The 1994 (Mw 5.8) Double Spring Flat earthquake occurred along the eastern Sierra Nevada between overlapping normal faults. Aftershock migration and cross fault triggering occurred in the following two years, producing seventeen Mw > 4 aftershocks The source parameters for the largest aftershocks were estimated from regionally recorded seismograms using moment tensor inversion. We estimate the source parameters for two moderate sized earthquakes which occurred near Reno, Nevada, the 1995 (Mw 4.4) Border Town, and the 1998 (Mw 4.7) Incline Village Earthquakes. We test to see how such stress interactions affected a cluster of six large earthquakes (Mw 6.6 to 7.5) between 1915 to 1954 within the Central Nevada Seismic Belt. We compute the static stress changes for these earthquake using dislocation models based on the location and amount of surface rupture. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Constraints on Subduction Zone Coupling along the Philippine and Manila Trenches based on GPS and Seismological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamburger, M. W.; Johnson, K. M.; Nowicki, M. A. E.; Bacolcol, T. C.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Galgana, G.; Hsu, Y. J.; Yu, S. B.; Rau, R. J.; McCaffrey, R.

2014-12-01

We present results of two techniques to estimate the degree of coupling along the two major subduction zone boundaries that bound the Philippine Mobile Belt, the Philippine Trench and the Manila Trench. Convergence along these plate margins accommodates about 100 mm/yr of oblique plate motion between the Philippine Sea and Sundaland plates. The coupling estimates are based on a recently acquired set of geodetic data from a dense nationwide network of continuous and campaign GPS sites in the Philippines. First, we use a kinematic, elastic block model (tdefnode; McCaffrey, 2009) that combines existing fault geometries, GPS velocities and focal mechanism solutions to solve for block rotations, fault coupling, and intra-block deformation. Secondly, we use a plate-block kinematic model described in Johnson (2013) to simultaneously estimate long-term fault slip rates, block motions and interseismic coupling on block-bounding faults. The best-fit model represents the Philippine Mobile Belt by 14 independently moving rigid tectonic blocks, separated by active faults and subduction zones. The model predicts rapid convergence along the Manila Trench, decreasing progressively southwards, from > 100 mm/yr in the north to less than 20 mm/yr in the south at the Mindoro Island collision zone. Persistent areas of high coupling, interpreted to be asperities, are observed along the Manila Trench slab interface, in central Luzon (16-18°N) and near its southern and northern terminations. Along the Philippine Trench, we observe ~50 mm/yr of oblique convergence, with high coupling observed at its central and southern segments. We identify the range of allowable coupling distributions and corresponding moment accumulation rates on the two subduction zones by conducting a suite of inversions in which the total moment accumulation rate on a selected fault is fixed. In these constrained moment inversions we test the range of possible solutions that meet criteria for minimum, best-fit, and maximum coupling that still fit the data, based on reduced chi-squared calculations. In spite of the variable coupling, the total potential moment accumulation rate along each of the two subduction zones is estimated to range from 3.98 x 1019 to 2.24 x 1020 N-m yr-1, equivalent to a magnitude Mw 8.4 to 8.9 earthquake per 100 years.

Nonlinear dynamic failure process of tunnel-fault system in response to strong seismic event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhihua; Lan, Hengxing; Zhang, Yongshuang; Gao, Xing; Li, Langping

2013-03-01

Strong earthquakes and faults have significant effect on the stability capability of underground tunnel structures. This study used a 3-Dimensional Discrete Element model and the real records of ground motion in the Wenchuan earthquake to investigate the dynamic response of tunnel-fault system. The typical tunnel-fault system was composed of one planned railway tunnel and one seismically active fault. The discrete numerical model was prudentially calibrated by means of the comparison between the field survey and numerical results of ground motion. It was then used to examine the detailed quantitative information on the dynamic response characteristics of tunnel-fault system, including stress distribution, strain, vibration velocity and tunnel failure process. The intensive tunnel-fault interaction during seismic loading induces the dramatic stress redistribution and stress concentration in the intersection of tunnel and fault. The tunnel-fault system behavior is characterized by the complicated nonlinear dynamic failure process in response to a real strong seismic event. It can be qualitatively divided into 5 main stages in terms of its stress, strain and rupturing behaviors: (1) strain localization, (2) rupture initiation, (3) rupture acceleration, (4) spontaneous rupture growth and (5) stabilization. This study provides the insight into the further stability estimation of underground tunnel structures under the combined effect of strong earthquakes and faults.

Estimation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for Peninsular Malaysia using geospatial approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nouri Manafizad, Amir; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Abdullahi, Saleh

2016-06-01

Among the various types of natural disasters, earthquake is considered as one of the most destructive events which impose a great amount of human fatalities and economic losses. Visualization of earthquake events and estimation of peak ground motions provides a strong tool for scientists and authorities to predict and mitigate the aftereffects of earthquakes. In addition it is useful for some businesses like insurance companies to evaluate the amount of investing risk. Although Peninsular Malaysian is situated in the stable part of Sunda plate, it is seismically influenced by very active earthquake sources of Sumatra's fault and subduction zones. This study modelled the seismic zones and estimates maximum credible earthquake (MCE) based on classified data for period 1900 to 2014. The deterministic approach was implemented for the analysis. Attenuation equations were used for two zones. Results show that, the PGA produced from subduction zone is from 2-64 (gal) and from the fault zone varies from 1-191(gal). In addition, the PGA generated from fault zone is more critical than subduction zone for selected seismic model.

Fault-related structural permeability: Qualitative insights of the damage-zone from micro-CT analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomila, Rodrigo; Arancibia, Gloria; Nehler, Mathias; Bracke, Rolf; Stöckhert, Ferdinand

2016-04-01

Fault zones and their related structural permeability play a leading role in the migration of fluids through the continental crust. A first approximation to understanding the structural permeability conditions, and the estimation of its hydraulic properties (i.e. palaeopermeability and fracture porosity conditions) of the fault-related fracture mesh is the 2D analysis of its veinlets, usually made in thin-section. Those estimations are based in the geometrical parameters of the veinlets, such as average fracture density, length and aperture, which can be statistically modelled assuming penny-shaped fractures of constant radius and aperture within an anisotropic fracture system. Thus, this model is related to fracture connectivity, its length and to the cube of the fracture apertures. In this way, the estimated values presents their own inaccuracies owing to the method used. Therefore, the study of the real spatial distribution of the veinlets of the fault-related fracture mesh (3D), feasible with the use of micro-CT analyses, is a first order factor to unravel both, the real structural permeability conditions of a fault-zone, together with the validation of previous estimations made in 2D analyses in thin-sections. This early contribution shows the preliminary results of a fault-related fracture mesh and its 3D spatial distribution in the damage zone of the Jorgillo Fault (JF), an ancient subvertical left-lateral strike-slip fault exposed in the Atacama Fault System in northern Chile. The JF is a ca. 20 km long NNW-striking strike-slip fault with sinistral displacement of ca. 4 km. The methodology consisted of the drilling of vertically oriented plugs of 5 mm in diameter located at different distances from the JF core - damage zone boundary. Each specimen was, then, scanned with an x-ray micro-CT scanner (ProCon X-Ray CTalpha) in order to assess the fracture mesh. X-rays were generated in a transmission target x-ray tube with acceleration voltages ranging from 90-120 kV and target currents from 40-60 μA. The focal spot size on the diamond/tungsten target was about 5 μm. The x-ray beam was filtered using a 1 mm Aluminum plate before passing the sample. 1200 x-ray images were taken during a full rotation of the sample using an amorphous silicon flat panel detector with 1516x1900 pixels. This resulted in a voxel resolution of about 8 μm in the 3D data reconstructed from the images. Future work will be aimed in the images segmentation of the fault-related fracture mesh followed by the estimation of its hydraulic properties at the time of fracture sealing. Acknowledgements: This work is a contribution to the CONICYT- BMBF International Scientific Collaborative Research Program Project PCCI130025/FKZ01DN14033 and the FONDAP-CONICYT Project 15090013.

Mixed H2/H∞-Based Fusion Estimation for Energy-Limited Multi-Sensors in Wearable Body Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Chao; Zhang, Zhenjiang; Chao, Han-Chieh

2017-01-01

In wireless sensor networks, sensor nodes collect plenty of data for each time period. If all of data are transmitted to a Fusion Center (FC), the power of sensor node would run out rapidly. On the other hand, the data also needs a filter to remove the noise. Therefore, an efficient fusion estimation model, which can save the energy of the sensor nodes while maintaining higher accuracy, is needed. This paper proposes a novel mixed H2/H∞-based energy-efficient fusion estimation model (MHEEFE) for energy-limited Wearable Body Networks. In the proposed model, the communication cost is firstly reduced efficiently while keeping the estimation accuracy. Then, the parameters in quantization method are discussed, and we confirm them by an optimization method with some prior knowledge. Besides, some calculation methods of important parameters are researched which make the final estimates more stable. Finally, an iteration-based weight calculation algorithm is presented, which can improve the fault tolerance of the final estimate. In the simulation, the impacts of some pivotal parameters are discussed. Meanwhile, compared with the other related models, the MHEEFE shows a better performance in accuracy, energy-efficiency and fault tolerance. PMID:29280950

Effects of Channel Modification on Detection and Dating of Fault Scarps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sare, R.; Hilley, G. E.

2016-12-01

Template matching of scarp-like features could potentially generate morphologic age estimates for individual scarps over entire regions, but data noise and scarp modification limits detection of fault scarps by this method. Template functions based on diffusion in the cross-scarp direction may fail to accurately date scarps near channel boundaries. Where channels reduce scarp amplitudes, or where cross-scarp noise is significant, signal-to-noise ratios decrease and the scarp may be poorly resolved. In this contribution, we explore the bias in morphologic age of a complex scarp produced by systematic changes in fault scarp curvature. For example, fault scarps may be modified by encroaching channel banks and mass failure, lateral diffusion of material into a channel, or undercutting parallel to the base of a scarp. We quantify such biases on morphologic age estimates using a block offset model subject to two-dimensional linear diffusion. We carry out a synthetic study of the effects of two-dimensional transport on morphologic age calculated using a profile model, and compare these results to a well- studied and constrained site along the San Andreas Fault at Wallace Creek, CA. This study serves as a first step towards defining regions of high confidence in template matching results based on scarp length, channel geometry, and near-scarp topography.

GPS constraints on M 7-8 earthquake recurrence times for the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart, W.D.

2001-01-01

Newman et al. (1999) estimate the time interval between the 1811-1812 earthquake sequence near New Madrid, Missouri and a future similar sequence to be at least 2,500 years, an interval significantly longer than other recently published estimates. To calculate the recurrence time, they assume that slip on a vertical half-plane at depth contributes to the current interseismic motion of GPS benchmarks. Compared to other plausible fault models, the half-plane model gives nearly the maximum rate of ground motion for the same interseismic slip rate. Alternative models with smaller interseismic fault slip area can satisfy the present GPS data by having higher slip rate and thus can have earthquake recurrence times much less than 2,500 years.

Modeling Of Spontaneous Multiscale Roughening And Branching of Ruptures Propagating On A Slip-Weakening Frictional Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, A. E.

2013-12-01

Numerous field and experimental observations suggest that faults surfaces are rough at multiple scales and tend to produce a wide range of branch sizes ranging from micro-branching to large scale secondary faults. The development and evolution of fault roughness and branching is believed to play an important role in rupture dynamics and energy partitioning. Previous work by several groups has succeeded in determining conditions under which a main rupture may branch into a secondary fault. Recently, there great progress has been made in investigating rupture propagation on rough faults with and without off-fault plasticity. Nonetheless, in most of these models the heterogeneity, whether the roughness profile or the secondary faults orientation, was built into the system from the beginning and consequently the final outcome depends strongly on the initial conditions. Here we introduce an adaptive mesh technique for modeling mode-II crack propagation on slip weakening frictional interfaces. We use a Finite Element Framework with random mesh topology that adapts to crack dynamics through element splitting and sequential insertion of frictional interfaces dictated by the failure criterion. This allows the crack path to explore non-planar paths and develop the roughness profile that is most compatible with the dynamical constraints. It also enables crack branching at different scales. We quantify energy dissipation due to the roughening process and small scale branching. We compare the results of our model to a reference case for propagation on a planar fault. We show that the small scale processes of roughening and branching influence many characteristics of the rupture propagation including the energy partitioning, rupture speed and peak slip rates. We also estimate the fracture energy required for propagating a crack on a planar fault that will be required to produce comparable results. We anticipate that this modeling approach provides an attractive methodology that complements the current efforts in modeling off-fault plasticity and damage.

Integrated analysis of differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) and geological data for measuring deformation movement of Kaligarang fault, Semarang-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Y.; Fakhrudin, Warasambi, S. M.

2016-05-01

Semarang is one of the densely populated city in Central Java which is has Kaligarang's fault. It is lie in Kaligarang River and across several dense urban settlement. The position of Kaligarang's river itself divides in the direction nearly north-south city of Semarang. The impact of the fault can be seen in severals indication such as a land subsidence phenomenon in Tinjomoyo village area which is make impact to house and road destruction. In this research, we have used combination methods between InSAR, DinSAR and geomorphology (geology data) where is this techniques used to identity the fault area and estimate Kaligarang's fault movement velocity. In fault movement velocity observation, we only compute the movement in vertical with neglect horizontal movement. The data used in this study of one pair ALOS PALSAR level 1.0 which was acquired on June 8, 2007and 10 of September 2009. Besides that third ALOS PALSAR earlier, also used data of SRTM DEM 4th version, is used for the correction of the topography. The use of the three methods already mentioned earlier have different functions. For the lnSAR method used for the establishment of a digital model in Semarang. After getting high models digital city of Semarang, the identification process can be done layout, length, width and area of the Kaligarang fault using geomorphology. Results of such identification can be calculated using the rate of deformation and fault movement. From the result generated DinSAR method of land subsidence rate between 3 em to II em. To know the truth measurement that used DinSAR method, is performed with the decline of validation that measured using GPS. After validating obtained standard deviation of 3,073 em. To estimate the Kaligarang's fault pattern and direction is using the geomorphology method. The results that Kaligarang's is an active fault that has fault strike slip as fault pattern. It makes this research is useful because could be used as an inquick assessment in fault identification and deformation movement observation.

Investigating Strain Transfer Along the Southern San Andreas Fault: A Geomorphic and Geodetic Study of Block Rotation in the Eastern Transverse Ranges, Joshua Tree National Park, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guns, K. A.; Bennett, R. A.; Blisniuk, K.

2017-12-01

To better evaluate the distribution and transfer of strain and slip along the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) zone in the northern Coachella valley in southern California, we integrate geological and geodetic observations to test whether strain is being transferred away from the SSAF system towards the Eastern California Shear Zone through microblock rotation of the Eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR). The faults of the ETR consist of five east-west trending left lateral strike slip faults that have measured cumulative offsets of up to 20 km and as low as 1 km. Present kinematic and block models present a variety of slip rate estimates, from as low as zero to as high as 7 mm/yr, suggesting a gap in our understanding of what role these faults play in the larger system. To determine whether present-day block rotation along these faults is contributing to strain transfer in the region, we are applying 10Be surface exposure dating methods to observed offset channel and alluvial fan deposits in order to estimate fault slip rates along two faults in the ETR. We present observations of offset geomorphic landforms using field mapping and LiDAR data at three sites along the Blue Cut Fault and one site along the Smoke Tree Wash Fault in Joshua Tree National Park which indicate recent Quaternary fault activity. Initial results of site mapping and clast count analyses reveal at least three stages of offset, including potential Holocene offsets, for one site along the Blue Cut Fault, while preliminary 10Be geochronology is in progress. This geologic slip rate data, combined with our new geodetic surface velocity field derived from updated campaign-based GPS measurements within Joshua Tree National Park will allow us to construct a suite of elastic fault block models to elucidate rates of strain transfer away from the SSAF and how that strain transfer may be affecting the length of the interseismic period along the SSAF.

Using a coupled hydro-mechanical fault model to better understand the risk of induced seismicity in deep geothermal projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Steffen; Krieger, Lars; Deckert, Hagen

2017-04-01

The changes of fluid pressures related to the injection of fluids into the deep underground, for example during geothermal energy production, can potentially reactivate faults and thus cause induced seismic events. Therefore, an important aspect in the planning and operation of such projects, in particular in densely populated regions such as the Upper Rhine Graben in Germany, is the estimation and mitigation of the induced seismic risk. The occurrence of induced seismicity depends on a combination of hydraulic properties of the underground, mechanical and geometric parameters of the fault, and the fluid injection regime. In this study we are therefore employing a numerical model to investigate the impact of fluid pressure changes on the dynamics of the faults and the resulting seismicity. The approach combines a model of the fluid flow around a geothermal well based on a 3D finite difference discretisation of the Darcy-equation with a 2D block-slider model of a fault. The models are coupled so that the evolving pore pressure at the relevant locations of the hydraulic model is taken into account in the calculation of the stick-slip dynamics of the fault model. Our modelling approach uses two subsequent modelling steps. Initially, the fault model is run by applying a fixed deformation rate for a given duration and without the influence of the hydraulic model in order to generate the background event statistics. Initial tests have shown that the response of the fault to hydraulic loading depends on the timing of the fluid injection relative to the seismic cycle of the fault. Therefore, multiple snapshots of the fault's stress- and displacement state are generated from the fault model. In a second step, these snapshots are then used as initial conditions in a set of coupled hydro-mechanical model runs including the effects of the fluid injection. This set of models is then compared with the background event statistics to evaluate the change in the probability of seismic events. The event data such as location, magnitude, and source characteristics can be used as input for numerical wave propagation models. This allows the translation of seismic event statistics generated by the model into ground shaking probabilities.

Length-Displacement Scaling of Lunar Thrust Faults and the Formation of Uphill-Facing Scarps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiesinger, Harald; Roggon, Lars; Hetzel, Ralf; Clark, Jaclyn D.; Hampel, Andrea; van der Bogert, Carolyn H.

2017-04-01

Lobate scarps are straight to curvilinear positive-relief landforms that occur on all terrestrial bodies [e.g., 1-3]. They are the surface manifestation of thrust faults that cut through and offset the upper part of the crust. Fault scarps on planetary surfaces provide the opportunity to study the growth of faults under a wide range of environmental conditions (e.g., gravity, temperature, pore pressure) [4]. We studied four lunar thrust-fault scarps (Simpelius-1, Morozov (S1), Fowler, Racah X-1) ranging in length from 1.3 km to 15.4 km [5] and found that their maximum total displacements are linearly correlated with length over one order of magnitude. We propose that during the progressive accumulation of slip, lunar faults propagate laterally and increase in length. On the basis of our measurements, the ratio of maximum displacement, D, to fault length, L, ranges from 0.017 to 0.028 with a mean value of 0.023 (or 2.3%). This is an order of magnitude higher than the value of 0.1% derived by theoretical considerations [4], and about twice as large as the value of 0.012-0.013 estimated by [6,7]. Our results, in addition to recently published findings for other lunar scarps [2,8], indicate that the D/L ratios of lunar thrust faults are similar to those of faults on Mercury and Mars (e.g., 1, 9-11], and almost as high as the average D/L ratio of 3% for faults on Earth [16,23]. Three of the investigated thrust fault scarps (Simpelius-1, Morozov (S1), Fowler) are uphill-facing scarps generated by slip on faults that dip in the same direction as the local topography. Thrust faults with such a geometry are common ( 60% of 97 studied scarps) on the Moon [e.g., 2,5,7]. To test our hypothesis that the surface topography plays an important role in the formation of uphill-facing fault scarps by controlling the vertical load on a fault plane, we simulated thrust faulting and its relation to topography with two-dimensional finite-element models using the commercial code ABAQUS (version 6.14). Our model results indicate that the onset of faulting in our 200-km-long model is a function of the surface topography [5]. Our numerical model indicates that uphill-facing scarps form earlier and grow faster than downhill-facing scarps under otherwise similar conditions. Thrust faults which dip in the same general direction as the topography (forming an uphill-facing scarp), start to slip earlier (4.2 Ma) after the onset of shortening and reach a total slip of 5.8 m after 70 Ma. In contrast, slip on faults that leads to the generation of a downhill-facing scarp initiates much later (i.e., after 20 Ma of elapsed model time) and attains a total slip of only 1.8 m in 70 Ma. If the surface of the model is horizontal, faulting on both fault structures starts after 4.4 Ma, but faulting proceeds at a lower rate than for fault, which generated the uphill-facing scarp. Although the absolute ages for fault initiation (as well as the total fault slip) depend on the arbitrarily chosen shortening rate (as well as on the size of the model and the elastic parameters), this relative timing of fault activation was consistently observed irrespective of the chosen shortening rate. Thus, the model results demonstrate that, for all other factors being equal, the differing weight of the hanging wall above the two modeled faults is responsible for the different timing of fault initiation and the difference in total slip. In conclusion, we present new quantitative estimates of the maximum total displacements of lunar lobate scarps and offer a new model to explain the origin of uphill-facing scarps that is also of importance for understanding the formation of the Lee-Lincoln scarp at the Apollo 17 landing site. [1] Watters et al., 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27; [2] Williams et al., 2013, J. Geophys. Res. 118; [3] Massironi et al., 2015, Encycl. Planet. Landf., pp. 1255-1262; [4] Schultz et al., 2006, J. Struct. Geol. 28; [5] Roggon et al. (2017) Icarus, in press; [6] Watters and Johnson, 2010, Planetary Tectonics, pp. 121-182; [7] Banks et al., 2012, J. Geophys. Res. 117; [8] Banks et al., 2013, LPSC 44, 3042; [9] Hauber and Kronberg, 2005, J. Geophys. Res. 110; [10] Hauber et al., 2013, EPSC2013-987; [11] Byrne et al., 2014, Nature Geosci. 7

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1993-01-01

Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.

Fault detection and diagnosis using neural network approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kramer, Mark A.

1992-01-01

Neural networks can be used to detect and identify abnormalities in real-time process data. Two basic approaches can be used, the first based on training networks using data representing both normal and abnormal modes of process behavior, and the second based on statistical characterization of the normal mode only. Given data representative of process faults, radial basis function networks can effectively identify failures. This approach is often limited by the lack of fault data, but can be facilitated by process simulation. The second approach employs elliptical and radial basis function neural networks and other models to learn the statistical distributions of process observables under normal conditions. Analytical models of failure modes can then be applied in combination with the neural network models to identify faults. Special methods can be applied to compensate for sensor failures, to produce real-time estimation of missing or failed sensors based on the correlations codified in the neural network.

Constraining the slip distribution and fault geometry of the Mw 7.9, 3 November 2002, Denali fault earthquake with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Tim J.; Lu, Z.; Wicks, Charles

2004-01-01

The Mw 7.9, Denali fault earthquake (DFE) is the largest continental strike-slip earthquake to occur since the development of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). We use five interferograms, constructed using radar images from the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, to map the surface deformation at the western end of the fault rupture. Additional geodetic data are provided by displacements observed at 40 campaign and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) sites. We use the data to determine the geometry of the Susitna Glacier fault, thrusting on which initiated the DFE, and to determine a slip model for the entire event that is consistent with both the InSAR and GPS data. We find there was an average of 7.3 ± 0.4 m slip on the Susitna Glacier fault, between 1 and 9.5 km depth on a 29 km long fault that dips north at 41 ± 0.7° and has a surface projection close to the mapped rupture. On the Denali fault, a simple model with large slip patches finds a maximum of 8.7 ± 0.7 m of slip between the surface and 14.3 ± 0.2 km depth. A more complex distributed slip model finds a peak of 12.5 ± 0.8 m in the upper 4 km, significantly higher than the observed surface slip. We estimate a geodetic moment of 670 ± 10 × 1018 N m (Mw 7.9), consistent with seismic estimates. Lack of preseismic data resulted in an absence of InSAR coverage for the eastern half of the DFE rupture. A dedicated geodetic InSAR mission could obviate coverage problems in the future.

Source Process of the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake Derived from Near-fault Strong Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoi, S.; Sekiguchi, H.; Morikawa, N.; Ozawa, T.; Kunugi, T.; Shirasaka, M.

2007-12-01

The 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake occurred on July 16th, 2007, 10:13 JST. We performed a multi- time window linear waveform inversion analysis (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983) to estimate the rupture process from the near fault strong motion data of 14 stations from K-NET, KiK-net, F-net, JMA, and Niigata prefecture. The fault plane for the mainshock has not been clearly determined yet from the aftershock distribution, so that we performed two waveform inversions for north-west dipping fault (Model A) and south-east dipping fault (Model B). Their strike, dip, and rake are set to those of the moment tensor solutions by F-net. Fault plane model of 30 km length by 24 km width is set to cover aftershock distribution within 24 hours after the mainshock. Theoretical Green's functions were calculated by the discrete wavenumber method (Bouchon, 1981) and the R/T matrix method (Kennett, 1983) with the different stratified medium for each station based on the velocity structure including the information form the reflection survey and borehole logging data. Convolution of moving dislocation was introduced to represent the rupture propagation in an each subfault (Sekiguchi et al., 2002). The observed acceleration records were integrated into velocity except of F-net velocity data, and bandpass filtered between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz. We solved least-squared equation to obtain slip amount of each time window on each subfault to minimize squared residual of the waveform fitting between observed and synthetic waveforms. Both models provide moment magnitudes of 6.7. Regarding Model A, we obtained large slip in the south-west deeper part of the rupture starting point, which is close to Kashiwazaki-city. The second or third velocity pulses of observed velocity waveforms seem to be composed of slip from the asperity. Regarding Model B, we obtained large slip in the southwest shallower part of the rupture starting point, which is also close to Kashiwazaki-city. In both models, we found small slip near the rupture starting point, and largest slip at about ten kilometer in the south-west of the rupture starting point with the maximum slip of 2.3 and 2.5 m for Models A and B, respectively. The difference of the residual between observed and synthetic waveforms for both models is not significant, therefore it is difficult to conclude which fault plane is appropriate to explain. The estimated large-slip regions in the inverted source models with the Models A and B are located near the cross point of the two fault plane models, which should have similar radiation pattern. This situation may be one of the reasons why judgment of the fault plane orientation is such difficult. We need careful examinations not only strong motion data but also geodetic data to further explore the fault orientation and the source process of this earthquake.

Three-dimensional modeling, estimation, and fault diagnosis of spacecraft air contaminants.

PubMed

Narayan, A P; Ramirez, W F

1998-01-01

A description is given of the design and implementation of a method to track the presence of air contaminants aboard a spacecraft using an accurate physical model and of a procedure that would raise alarms when certain tolerance levels are exceeded. Because our objective is to monitor the contaminants in real time, we make use of a state estimation procedure that filters measurements from a sensor system and arrives at an optimal estimate of the state of the system. The model essentially consists of a convection-diffusion equation in three dimensions, solved implicitly using the principle of operator splitting, and uses a flowfield obtained by the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for the cabin geometry, assuming steady-state conditions. A novel implicit Kalman filter has been used for fault detection, a procedure that is an efficient way to track the state of the system and that uses the sparse nature of the state transition matrices.

Probabilistic In Situ Stress Estimation and Forecasting using Sequential Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fichtner, A.; van Dinther, Y.; Kuensch, H. R.

2017-12-01

Our physical understanding and forecasting ability of earthquakes, and other solid Earth dynamic processes, is significantly hampered by limited indications on the evolving state of stress and strength on faults. Integrating observations and physics-based numerical modeling to quantitatively estimate this evolution of a fault's state is crucial. However, systematic attempts are limited and tenuous, especially in light of the scarcity and uncertainty of natural data and the difficulty of modelling the physics governing earthquakes. We adopt the statistical framework of sequential data assimilation - extensively developed for weather forecasting - to efficiently integrate observations and prior knowledge in a forward model, while acknowledging errors in both. To prove this concept we perform a perfect model test in a simplified subduction zone setup, where we assimilate synthetic noised data on velocities and stresses from a single location. Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter, these data and their errors are assimilated to update 150 ensemble members from a Partial Differential Equation-driven seismic cycle model. Probabilistic estimates of fault stress and dynamic strength evolution capture the truth exceptionally well. This is possible, because the sampled error covariance matrix contains prior information from the physics that relates velocities, stresses and pressure at the surface to those at the fault. During the analysis step, stress and strength distributions are thus reconstructed such that fault coupling can be updated to either inhibit or trigger events. In the subsequent forecast step the physical equations are solved to propagate the updated states forward in time and thus provide probabilistic information on the occurrence of the next event. At subsequent assimilation steps, the system's forecasting ability turns out to be significantly better than that of a periodic recurrence model (requiring an alarm 17% vs. 68% of the time). This thus provides distinct added value with respect to using observations or numerical models separately. Although several challenges for applications to a natural setting remain, these first results indicate the large potential of data assimilation techniques for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and other challenges in dynamic solid earth systems.

Continuous Fine-Fault Estimation with Real-Time GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norford, B. B.; Melbourne, T. I.; Szeliga, W. M.; Santillan, V. M.; Scrivner, C.; Senko, J.; Larsen, D.

2017-12-01

Thousands of real-time telemetered GNSS stations operate throughout the circum-Pacific that may be used for rapid earthquake characterization and estimation of local tsunami excitation. We report on the development of a GNSS-based finite-fault inversion system that continuously estimates slip using real-time GNSS position streams from the Cascadia subduction zone and which is being expanded throughout the circum-Pacific. The system uses 1 Hz precise point position streams computed in the ITRF14 reference frame using clock and satellite orbit corrections from the IGS. The software is implemented as seven independent modules that filter time series using Kalman filters, trigger and estimate coseismic offsets, invert for slip using a non-negative least squares method developed by Lawson and Hanson (1974) and elastic half-space Green's Functions developed by Okada (1985), smooth the results temporally and spatially, and write the resulting streams of time-dependent slip to a RabbitMQ messaging server for use by downstream modules such as tsunami excitation modules. Additional fault models can be easily added to the system for other circum-Pacific subduction zones as additional real-time GNSS data become available. The system is currently being tested using data from well-recorded earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the 2010 Maule earthquake, the 2015 Illapel earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 2014 Iquique earthquake, the 2010 Mentawai earthquake, the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, the 2016 Ecuador earthquake, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, and others. Test data will be fed to the system and the resultant earthquake characterizations will be compared with published earthquake parameters. Seismic events will be assumed to occur on major faults, so, for example, only the San Andreas fault will be considered in Southern California, while the hundreds of other faults in the region will be ignored. Rake will be constrained along each subfault to be consistent with NUVEL-1 plate convergence directions. This software provides a basis for a GNSS-based rapid earthquake finite fault estimation system with global scope.

Control of strong ground motion of mining-induced earthquakes by the strength of the seismogenic rock mass

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.

2002-01-01

The shear stress ?? that can be sustained by the rock mass in the environs of a mining-induced earthquake controls the near-fault peak ground velocity v of that event according to v???0.25(??/G) ??, where ?? is the shear wave speed and G is the modulus of rigidity. To estimate ?? at mining depths, I review the results of four studies involving Witwatersrand tremors that relate to the bulk shear strength. The first and most general analysis uses the common assumptions that the seismogenic crust is pervasively faulted, has hydrostatic pore pressure before mining, and an extensional stress state that is close to failure. Mining operations reduce the pore pressure to zero within the mine and redistribute the stresses such that, in localized regions, the state of stress is again at the point of failure. Laboratory friction experiments can be used to estimate ?? in the zero-pore-pressure regime. Second, model calculations of states of stress in the vicinity of milling at about 3 km depth indicated the shear stress available to cause faulting near the centre of a distribution of induced earthquakes. Third, laboratory experiments combined with microscopic analyses of fault gouge from the rupture zone of a mining-induced event provided an estimate of the average shear stress acting on the fault to cause this earthquake at a depth of 2 km. Fourth, moment tensors determined for mining- induced earthquakes usually show substantial implosive components, from which it is straightforward to estimate ??. These four different analyses yield estimates of ?? that fall in the range 30 to 61 MPa which implies that near-fault particle velocities could he as high as about 1.5 m/s. To the extent that the causative fault ruptures previously intact rock, both ?? and v, in localized regions, could be several times higher than 61 MPa and 1.5 m/s.

Probabilistic evaluation of on-line checks in fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, V. S. S.; Hoskote, Yatin V.; Abraham, Jacob A.

1992-01-01

The analysis of fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems that use concurrent error detection (CED) schemes is much more difficult than the analysis of conventional fault-tolerant architectures. Various analytical techniques have been proposed to evaluate CED schemes deterministically. However, these approaches are based on worst-case assumptions related to the failure of system components. Often, the evaluation results do not reflect the actual fault tolerance capabilities of the system. A probabilistic approach to evaluate the fault detecting and locating capabilities of on-line checks in a system is developed. The various probabilities associated with the checking schemes are identified and used in the framework of the matrix-based model. Based on these probabilistic matrices, estimates for the fault tolerance capabilities of various systems are derived analytically.

Bulk-friction modeling of afterslip and the modified Omori law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wennerberg, Leif; Sharp, Robert V.

1997-01-01

Afterslip data from the Superstition Hills fault in southern California, a creep event on the same fault, the modified Omori law, and cumulative moments from aftershocks of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake all indicate that the original formulation by Dieterich (1981) [Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge. AGU, Geophys. Monogr. 24, 103–120] for friction evolution is more appropriate for systems far from instability than the commonly used approximation developed by Ruina (1983) [Slip instability and state variable friction laws. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 10359–10370] to study instability. The mathematical framework we use to test the friction models is a one-dimensional, massless spring-slider under the simplifying assumption, proposed by Scholz (1990) [The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press] and used by Marone et al. (1991) [On the mechanics of earthquake afterslip. J. Geophys. Res., 96: 8441–8452], that the state variable takes on its velocity-dependent steady-state value throughout motion in response to a step in stress. This assumption removes explicit state-variable dependence from the model, obviating the need to consider state-variable evolution equations. Anti-derivatives of the modified Omori law fit our data very well and are very good approximate solutions to our model equations. A plausible friction model with Omori-law solutions used by Wesson (1988) [Dynamics of fault creep. J. Geophys. Res. 93, 8929–8951] to model fault creep and generalized by Rice (1983) [Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities. Pure Appl. Geophys. 121, 443–475] to a rate-and-state variable friction model yields exactly Omori's law with exponents greater than 1, but yields unstable solutions for Omori exponents less than 1. We estimate from the Dieterich formulation the dimensionless parameter a∗ which is equal to the product of the nominal coefficient of friction and the more commonly reported friction parameter a. We find that a∗ is typically positive, qualitatively consistent with laboratory observations, although our observations are considerably larger than laboratory values. However, we also find good model fits for a∗ < 0 when data correspond to Omori exponents less than 1. A modification of the stability analysis by Rice and Ruina (1983) [Stability of steady frictional slipping. J. Appl. Mech. 50, 343–349] indicates that a∗ < 0 is not a consequence of our assumption regarding state-variable evolution. A consistent interpretation of a∗ < 0 in terms of laboratory models appears to be that the data are from later portions of processes better characterized by two-state-variable friction models. a∗ < 0 is explained by assuming that our data cannot resolve the co-seismic evolution of a short-length-scale state variable to a velocity-weakening state; our parameterization leads to an apparent negative instantaneous viscosity. We estimate the largest critical slip distance associated with afterslip to be ∼1–10 cm, consistent with other estimates for near-surface materials. We assume that our observed large values for a∗ reflect the fact that our model ignores the geometrical complexities of three-dimensional stresses in fractured crustal materials around a fault zone with frictional stresses that vary on a fault surface. Our one-dimensional model parameters reflect spatially averaged, bulk, stress and frictional properties of a fault zone, where we clearly cannot specify the details of the averaging process. Our analysis of Omori's law suggests that bulk-frictional properties of a fault zone are well described by our simple laboratory-based models, but they would need to change during the seismic cycle for a mainshock instability to recur, unless a mainshock-aftershock sequence were characterized by a process similar to the arrested instabilities possible in two-state-variable systems.

Bulk-friction modeling of afterslip and the modified Omori law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wennerberg, Leif; Sharp, Robert V.

1997-08-01

Afterslip data from the Superstition Hills fault in southern California, a creep event on the same fault, the modified Omori law, and cumulative moments from aftershocks of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake all indicate that the original formulation by Dieterich (1981) [Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge. AGU, Geophys. Monogr. 24, 103-120] for friction evolution is more appropriate for systems far from instability than the commonly used approximation developed by Ruina (1983) [Slip instability and state variable friction laws. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 10359-10370] to study instability. The mathematical framework we use to test the friction models is a one-dimensional, massless spring-slider under the simplifying assumption, proposed by Scholz (1990) [The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press] and used by Marone et al. (1991) [On the mechanics of earthquake afterslip. J. Geophys. Res., 96: 8441-8452], that the state variable takes on its velocity-dependent steady-state value throughout motion in response to a step in stress. This assumption removes explicit state-variable dependence from the model, obviating the need to consider state-variable evolution equations. Anti-derivatives of the modified Omori law fit our data very well and are very good approximate solutions to our model equations. A plausible friction model with Omori-law solutions used by Wesson (1988) [Dynamics of fault creep. J. Geophys. Res. 93, 8929-8951] to model fault creep and generalized by Rice (1983) [Constitutive relations for fault slip and earthquake instabilities. Pure Appl. Geophys. 121, 443-475] to a rate-and-state variable friction model yields exactly Omori's law with exponents greater than 1, but yields unstable solutions for Omori exponents less than 1. We estimate from the Dieterich formulation the dimensionless parameter a∗ which is equal to the product of the nominal coefficient of friction and the more commonly reported friction parameter a. We find that a∗ is typically positive, qualitatively consistent with laboratory observations, although our observations are considerably larger than laboratory values. However, we also find good model fits for a∗ < 0 when data correspond to Omori exponents less than 1. A modification of the stability analysis by Rice and Ruina (1983) [Stability of steady frictional slipping. J. Appl. Mech. 50, 343-349] indicates that a∗ < 0 is not a consequence of our assumption regarding state-variable evolution. A consistent interpretation of a∗ < 0 in terms of laboratory models appears to be that the data are from later portions of processes better characterized by two-state-variable friction models. a∗ < 0 is explained by assuming that our data cannot resolve the co-seismic evolution of a short-length-scale state variable to a velocity-weakening state; our parameterization leads to an apparent negative instantaneous viscosity. We estimate the largest critical slip distance associated with afterslip to be ˜1-10 cm, consistent with other estimates for near-surface materials. We assume that our observed large values for a∗ reflect the fact that our model ignores the geometrical complexities of three-dimensional stresses in fractured crustal materials around a fault zone with frictional stresses that vary on a fault surface. Our one-dimensional model parameters reflect spatially averaged, bulk, stress and frictional properties of a fault zone, where we clearly cannot specify the details of the averaging process. Our analysis of Omori's law suggests that bulk-frictional properties of a fault zone are well described by our simple laboratory-based models, but they would need to change during the seismic cycle for a mainshock instability to recur, unless a mainshock-aftershock sequence were characterized by a process similar to the arrested instabilities possible in two-state-variable systems.

Designing Fault-Injection Experiments for the Reliability of Embedded Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.

2012-01-01

This paper considers the long-standing problem of conducting fault-injections experiments to establish the ultra-reliability of embedded systems. There have been extensive efforts in fault injection, and this paper offers a partial summary of the efforts, but these previous efforts have focused on realism and efficiency. Fault injections have been used to examine diagnostics and to test algorithms, but the literature does not contain any framework that says how to conduct fault-injection experiments to establish ultra-reliability. A solution to this problem integrates field-data, arguments-from-design, and fault-injection into a seamless whole. The solution in this paper is to derive a model reduction theorem for a class of semi-Markov models suitable for describing ultra-reliable embedded systems. The derivation shows that a tight upper bound on the probability of system failure can be obtained using only the means of system-recovery times, thus reducing the experimental effort to estimating a reasonable number of easily-observed parameters. The paper includes an example of a system subject to both permanent and transient faults. There is a discussion of integrating fault-injection with field-data and arguments-from-design.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Induction machine bearing faults detection based on a multi-dimensional MUSIC algorithm and maximum likelihood estimation.

PubMed

Elbouchikhi, Elhoussin; Choqueuse, Vincent; Benbouzid, Mohamed

2016-07-01

Condition monitoring of electric drives is of paramount importance since it contributes to enhance the system reliability and availability. Moreover, the knowledge about the fault mode behavior is extremely important in order to improve system protection and fault-tolerant control. Fault detection and diagnosis in squirrel cage induction machines based on motor current signature analysis (MCSA) has been widely investigated. Several high resolution spectral estimation techniques have been developed and used to detect induction machine abnormal operating conditions. This paper focuses on the application of MCSA for the detection of abnormal mechanical conditions that may lead to induction machines failure. In fact, this paper is devoted to the detection of single-point defects in bearings based on parametric spectral estimation. A multi-dimensional MUSIC (MD MUSIC) algorithm has been developed for bearing faults detection based on bearing faults characteristic frequencies. This method has been used to estimate the fundamental frequency and the fault related frequency. Then, an amplitude estimator of the fault characteristic frequencies has been proposed and fault indicator has been derived for fault severity measurement. The proposed bearing faults detection approach is assessed using simulated stator currents data, issued from a coupled electromagnetic circuits approach for air-gap eccentricity emulating bearing faults. Then, experimental data are used for validation purposes. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Along-strike variations of the partitioning of convergence across the Haiyuan fault system detected by InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daout, S.; Jolivet, R.; Lasserre, C.; Doin, M.-P.; Barbot, S.; Tapponnier, P.; Peltzer, G.; Socquet, A.; Sun, J.

2016-04-01

Oblique convergence across Tibet leads to slip partitioning with the coexistence of strike-slip, normal and thrust motion on major fault systems. A key point is to understand and model how faults interact and accumulate strain at depth. Here, we extract ground deformation across the Haiyuan Fault restraining bend, at the northeastern boundary of the Tibetan plateau, from Envisat radar data spanning the 2001-2011 period. We show that the complexity of the surface displacement field can be explained by the partitioning of a uniform deep-seated convergence. Mountains and sand dunes in the study area make the radar data processing challenging and require the latest developments in processing procedures for Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry. The processing strategy is based on a small baseline approach. Before unwrapping, we correct for atmospheric phase delays from global atmospheric models and digital elevation model errors. A series of filtering steps is applied to improve the signal-to-noise ratio across high ranges of the Tibetan plateau and the phase unwrapping capability across the fault, required for reliable estimate of fault movement. We then jointly invert our InSAR time-series together with published GPS displacements to test a proposed long-term slip-partitioning model between the Haiyuan and Gulang left-lateral Faults and the Qilian Shan thrusts. We explore the geometry of the fault system at depth and associated slip rates using a Bayesian approach and test the consistency of present-day geodetic surface displacements with a long-term tectonic model. We determine a uniform convergence rate of 10 [8.6-11.5] mm yr-1 with an N89 [81-97]°E across the whole fault system, with a variable partitioning west and east of a major extensional fault-jog (the Tianzhu pull-apart basin). Our 2-D model of two profiles perpendicular to the fault system gives a quantitative understanding of how crustal deformation is accommodated by the various branches of this thrust/strike-slip fault system and demonstrates how the geometry of the Haiyuan fault system controls the partitioning of the deep secular motion.

Stress before and after the 2002 Denali fault earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Boyd, O.S.

2007-01-01

Spatially averaged, absolute deviatoric stress tensors along the faults ruptured during the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, both before and after the event, are derived, using a new method, from estimates of the orientations of the principal stresses and the stress change associated with the earthquake. Stresses are estimated in three regions along the Denali fault, one of which also includes the Susitna Glacier fault, and one region along the Totschunda fault. Estimates of the spatially averaged shear stress before the earthquake resolved onto the faults that ruptured during the event range from near 1 MPa to near 4 MPa. Shear stresses estimated along the faults in all these regions after the event are near zero (0 ?? 1 MPa). These results suggest that deviatoric stresses averaged over a few tens of km along strike are low, and that the stress drop during the earthquake was complete or nearly so.

Interseismic deformation and moment deficit along the Manila subduction zone and the Philippine Fault system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Y. J.; Yu, S. B.; Loveless, J. P.; Bacolcol, T.; Woessner, J.; Solidum, R., Jr.

2015-12-01

The Sunda plate converges obliquely with the Philippine Sea plate with a rate of ~100 mm/yr and results in the sinistral slip along the 1300 km-long Philippine fault. Using GPS data from 1998 to 2013 as well as a block modeling approach, we decompose the crustal motion into multiple rotating blocks and elastic deformation associated with fault slip at block boundaries. Our preferred model composed of 8 blocks, produces a mean residual velocity of 3.4 mm/yr at 93 GPS stations. Estimated long-term slip rates along the Manila subduction zone show a gradual southward decrease from 66 mm/yr at the northwest tip of Luzon to 60 mm/yr at the southern portion of the Manila Trench. We infer a low coupling fraction of 11% offshore northwest Luzon and a coupling fraction of 27% near the subduction of Scarborough Seamount. The accumulated strain along the Manila subduction zone at latitudes 15.5°~18.5°N could be balanced by earthquakes with composite magnitudes of Mw 8.7 and Mw 8.9 based on a recurrence interval of 500 years and 1000 years, respectively. Estimates of sinistral slip rates on the major splay faults of the Philippine fault system in central Luzon increase from east to west: sinistral slip rates are 2 mm/yr on the Dalton fault, 8 mm/yr on the Abra River fault, and 12 mm/yr on the Tubao fault. On the southern segment of the Philippine fault (Digdig fault), we infer left-lateral slip of ~20 mm/yr. The Vigan-Aggao fault in northwest Luzon exhibits significant reverse slip of up to 31 mm/yr, although deformation may be distributed across multiple offshore thrust faults. On the Northern Cordillera fault, we calculate left-lateral slip of ~7 mm/yr. Results of block modeling suggest that the majority of active faults in Luzon are fully locked to a depth of 15-20 km. Inferred moment magnitudes of inland large earthquakes in Luzon fall in the range of Mw 7.0-7.5 based on a recurrence interval of 100 years. Using the long-term plate convergence rate between the Sunda plate and Philippine Sea plate as well as seismic moment release rate, we calculate the moment budget for the entire Luzon plate boundary zone that could be balanced by earthquakes with a composite magnitude of ~Mw 9 based on recurrence intervals of 500-1000 years.

Using LiDAR to quantify uplift of shoreline angles during late Holocene earthquakes in northwest Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherrod, B. L.

2014-12-01

Three reverse faults in northwestern Washington - the Seattle, Tacoma, and Birch Bay faults - experienced late Holocene earthquakes. Warped intertidal platforms in the hanging wall of each fault formed broad anticlines as a result of deformation during these three earthquakes. Estimates of past deformation rely on differencing raised shoreline features and corresponding modern features. I utilized profiles of LiDAR digital elevation models to calculate prehistoric (647 profiles) and modern shoreline angles (507 profiles) and used these angles to quantify the shape and amount of deformation of each anticline. I calculated shoreline angle elevations by visually fitting lines to modern and uplifted intertidal surfaces and adjacent shoreline cliffs. The intersection of the two fitted lines is the shoreline angle. Mean elevations of modern shoreline angles for 6 shoreline areas in northern Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia (n=507) lie within 2-46 cm of mean tide level. Three additional shoreline areas in southern Puget Sound have modern shoreline angles closer to mean higher high water (within 22-88 cm) and lie in areas with less fetch and greater tidal range than sites in northern Puget Sound and the Straits of Georgia. A M>7 earthquake ~1.1 ka on the Seattle fault lifted a broad platform cut on sedimentary rocks out of the intertidal zone. Profiles of the platform at three locations along the western end of the Seattle fault zone define an anticline 8-10 km wide (orthogonal to the fault) with a maximum uplift during the earthquake of ~5-8 m. Another large earthquake ~1.1 ka uplifted an intertidal platform along the western part of the Tacoma fault. The raised platform formed an anticline ~10 km wide (orthogonal to the fault) with a maximum uplift of ~5 m. An earthquake ~1.2 ka raised shorelines in the hanging wall of the Birch Bay fault above an anticline observed on seismic reflection profiles near Bellingham, WA. Only part of the anticline is expressed in raised shorelines because shoreline angles are not preserved in the northern limb of the anticline. Estimated width of the anticline is ~8 km with a maximum uplift of 2.5 m. Ongoing elastic half-space modeling is intended to match profiles of each raised shoreline in order to estimate fault geometries and earthquake magnitudes required to produce the observed uplift profiles.

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the 2007 Noto-hanto earthquake, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The on-going rupture extent can be estimated for all datasets as the rupture propagates. For earthquakes with magnitude about 7.0, the determination of the fault parameters converges to the final geometry within 10 seconds.

Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama.

PubMed

Islam, Samantha; Jones, Steven L; Dye, Daniel

2014-06-01

The research described in this paper analyzed injury severities at a disaggregate level for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) large truck at-fault accidents for rural and urban locations in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a crash, four separate random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The models identified different sets of factors that can lead to effective policy decisions aimed at reducing large truck-at-fault accidents for respective locations. The results of the study clearly indicated that there are differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities resulting from urban vs. rural SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents. The results showed that some variables were significant only in one type of accident model (SV or MV) but not in the other accident model. Again, some variables were found to be significant in one location (rural or urban) but not in other locations. The study also identified important factors that significantly impact the injury severity resulting from SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents in urban and rural locations based on the estimated values of average direct pseudo-elasticity. A careful study of the results of this study will help policy makers and transportation agencies identify location specific recommendations to increase safety awareness related to large truck involved accidents and to improve overall highway safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study on UKF based federal integrated navigation for high dynamic aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Gang; Shao, Wei; Chen, Kai; Yan, Jie

2011-08-01

High dynamic aircraft is a very attractive new generation vehicles, in which provides near space aviation with large flight envelope both speed and altitude, for example the hypersonic vehicles. The complex flight environments for high dynamic vehicles require high accuracy and stability navigation scheme. Since the conventional Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS) and Global Position System (GPS) federal integrated scheme based on EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) is invalidation in GPS single blackout situation because of high speed flight, a new high precision and stability integrated navigation approach is presented in this paper, in which the SINS, GPS and Celestial Navigation System (CNS) is combined as a federal information fusion configuration based on nonlinear Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithm. Firstly, the new integrated system state error is modeled. According to this error model, the SINS system is used as the navigation solution mathematic platform. The SINS combine with GPS constitute one error estimation filter subsystem based on UKF to obtain local optimal estimation, and the SINS combine with CNS constitute another error estimation subsystem. A non-reset federated configuration filter based on partial information is proposed to fuse two local optimal estimations to get global optimal error estimation, and the global optimal estimation is used to correct the SINS navigation solution. The χ 2 fault detection method is used to detect the subsystem fault, and the fault subsystem is isolation through fault interval to protect system away from the divergence. The integrated system takes advantages of SINS, GPS and CNS to an immense improvement for high accuracy and reliably high dynamic navigation application. Simulation result shows that federated fusion of using GPS and CNS to revise SINS solution is reasonable and availably with good estimation performance, which are satisfied with the demands of high dynamic flight navigation. The UKF is superior than EKF based integrated scheme, in which has smaller estimation error and quickly convergence rate.

Rapid Tsunami Inundation Forecast from Near-field or Far-field Earthquakes using Pre-computed Tsunami Database: Pelabuhan Ratu, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Setiyono, U.; Satake, K.; Fujii, Y.

2017-12-01

We built pre-computed tsunami inundation database in Pelabuhan Ratu, one of tsunami-prone areas on the southern coast of Java, Indonesia. The tsunami database can be employed for a rapid estimation of tsunami inundation during an event. The pre-computed tsunami waveforms and inundations are from a total of 340 scenarios ranging from 7.5 to 9.2 in moment magnitude scale (Mw), including simple fault models of 208 thrust faults and 44 tsunami earthquakes on the plate interface, as well as 44 normal faults and 44 reverse faults in the outer-rise region. Using our tsunami inundation forecasting algorithm (NearTIF), we could rapidly estimate the tsunami inundation in Pelabuhan Ratu for three different hypothetical earthquakes. The first hypothetical earthquake is a megathrust earthquake type (Mw 9.0) offshore Sumatra which is about 600 km from Pelabuhan Ratu to represent a worst-case event in the far-field. The second hypothetical earthquake (Mw 8.5) is based on a slip deficit rate estimation from geodetic measurements and represents a most likely large event near Pelabuhan Ratu. The third hypothetical earthquake is a tsunami earthquake type (Mw 8.1) which often occur south off Java. We compared the tsunami inundation maps produced by the NearTIF algorithm with results of direct forward inundation modeling for the hypothetical earthquakes. The tsunami inundation maps produced from both methods are similar for the three cases. However, the tsunami inundation map from the inundation database can be obtained in much shorter time (1 min) than the one from a forward inundation modeling (40 min). These indicate that the NearTIF algorithm based on pre-computed inundation database is reliable and useful for tsunami warning purposes. This study also demonstrates that the NearTIF algorithm can work well even though the earthquake source is located outside the area of fault model database because it uses a time shifting procedure for the best-fit scenario searching.

Feasibility of estimating cementation rates in a brittle fault zone using Sr/Ca partition coefficients for sedimentary diagenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadizadeh, Jafar; Foit, Franklin F.

2000-04-01

Cement phases such as calcite or quartz often incorporate trace elements from the parent fluids as they crystallize. Experimental sedimentary diagenesis indicates that trace element partition coefficients reflect rates of cementation. The applicability of these findings to fault zone cementation is examined as we make a preliminary attempt to estimate calcite cementation rate in a brittle fault zone directly from the fault-rock composition data. Samples for this study were collected from the Knoxville outcrop of the Saltville fault in Tennessee. The cementation rates for the fault rock samples range from 1×10 -12 to 3×10 -13 m3/ h per m, in agreement with some experimental rates and the rates reported for samples from the DSDP sites. When applied to a non-responsive pore-system model, these rates result in rapid precipitation sealing indicating the influence exerted by the surface-area/volume ratio of the pore network. We find it feasible to obtain a reasonable range of values for the cementation rate using the trace element partition method. However, the study also indicates the need for relatively accurate values for the trace/carrier element ratio in the fault zone syntectonic pore fluid, and exhumed cement.

Impact of different detachment topographies on pull-apart basin evolution - analog modelling and computer visualisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoprich, M.; Decker, K.; Grasemann, B.; Sokoutis, D.; Willingshofer, E.

2009-04-01

Former analog modeling on pull-apart basins dealt with different sidestep geometries, the symmetry and ratio between velocities of moving blocks, the ratio between ductile base and model thickness, the ratio between fault stepover and model thickness and their influence on basin evolution. In all these models the pull-apart basin is deformed over an even detachment. The Vienna basin, however, is considered a classical thin-skinned pull-apart with a rather peculiar basement structure. Deformation and basin evolution are believed to be limited to the brittle upper crust above the Alpine-Carpathian floor thrust. The latter is not a planar detachment surface, but has a ramp-shaped topography draping the underlying former passive continental margin. In order to estimate the effects of this special geometry, nine experiments were accomplished and the resulting structures were compared with the Vienna basin. The key parameters for the models (fault and basin geometry, detachment depth and topography) were inferred from a 3D GoCad model of the natural Vienna basin, which was compiled from seismic, wells and geological cross sections. The experiments were scaled 1:100.000 ("Ramberg-scaling" for brittle rheology) and built of quartz sand (300 µm grain size). An average depth of 6 km (6 cm) was calculated for the basal detachment, distances between the bounding strike-slip faults of 40 km (40 cm) and a finite length of the natural basin of 200 km were estimated (initial model length: 100 cm). The following parameters were changed through the experimental process: (1) syntectonic sedimentation; (2) the stepover angle between bounding strike slip faults and basal velocity discontinuity; (3) moving of one or both fault blocks (producing an asymmetrical or symmetrical basin); (4) inclination of the basal detachment surface by 5°; (6) installation of 2 and 3 ramp systems at the detachment; (7) simulation of a ductile detachment through a 0.4 cm thick PDMS layer at the basin floor. The surface of the model was photographed after each deformation increment through the experiment. Pictures of serial cross sections cut through the models in their final state every 4 cm were also taken and interpreted. The formation of en-echelon normal faults with relay ramps is observed in all models. These faults are arranged in an acute angle to the basin borders, according to a Riedel-geometry. In the case of an asymmetric basin they emerge within the non-moving fault block. Substantial differences between the models are the number, the distance and the angle of these Riedel faults, the length of the bounding strike-slip faults and the cross basin symmetry. A flat detachment produces straight fault traces, whereas inclined detachments (or inclined ramps) lead to "bending" of the normal faults, rollover and growth strata thickening towards the faults. Positions and the sizes of depocenters also vary, with depocenters preferably developing above ramp-flat-transitions. Depocenter thicknesses increase with ramp heights. A similar relation apparently exists in the natural Vienna basin, which shows ramp-like structures in the detachment just underneath large faults like the Steinberg normal fault and the associated depocenters. The 3-ramp-model also reveals segmentation of the basin above the lowermost ramp. The evolving structure is comparable to the Wiener Neustadt sub-basin in the southern part of the Vienna basin, which is underlain by a topographical high of the detachment. Cross sections through the ductile model show a strong disintergration into a horst-and-graben basin. The thin silicon putty base influences the overlying strata in a way that the basin - unlike the "dry" sand models - becomes very flat and shallow. The top view shows an irregular basin shape and no rhombohedral geometry, which characterises the Vienna basin. The ductile base also leads to a symmetrical distribution of deformation on both fault blocks, even though only one fault block is moved. The stepover angle, the influence of gravitation in a ramp or inclined system and the strain accomodation by a viscous silicone layer can be summarized as factors controlling the characteristics of the models.

Influence of low-angle normal faulting on radial fracture pattern associated to pluton emplacement in Tuscany, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balsamo, F.; Rossetti, F.; Salvini, F.

2003-04-01

Fault-related fracture distribution significantly influences fluid flow in the sub-surface. Fault zone can act either as barriers or conduits to fluid migration, or as mixed conduit/barrier systems, depending on several factors that include the enviromental condition of deformation (pore fluid pressure, regional stress fields, overburden etc.), the kinematics of the fault and its geometry, and the rock type. The aim of this study is to estimate the boundary conditions of deformation along the Boccheggiano Fault, in the central Appennines. Seismic and deep well data are avaible for the Boccheggiano area, where a fossil geothermal system is exposed. The dominant structural feature of the studied area is a NW-SE trending low-angle detachment fault (Boccheggiano fault, active since the upper Miocene times), separating non-metamorphic sedimentary sequences of the Tuscan meso-cenozoic pelagiac succession and oceanic-derived Ligurids in the hangingwall, from green-schists facies metamorphic rocks of Paleozoic age in the footwall. Gouge-bearing mineralized damage zone (about 100 m thick) is present along the fault. The deep geometry of the Boccheggiano Fault is well imaged in the seismic profiles. The fault is shallow-dipping toward NE and flattens at the top of a magmatic intrusion, which lies at about 1000 m below the ground-level. Geometrical relationships indicate syn-tectonic pluton emplacement at the footwall of the Boccheggiano fault. Statistical analysis of fracture distribution pointed out a strong control of both azimuth and frequency by their position with respect to the Boccheggiano Fault: (i) a NW-SE trending fracture set within the fault zone, (ii) a radial pattern associated away from fault zone. Interpretation of structural and seismic data suggest an interplay between the near-field deformation associated with the rising intrusion during its emplacement (radial fracturing) and the NE-SW far-field extensional tectonic regime (NW-SE fractures) recognized in the area, responsible for the fault development. The 3-D geometry of the Boccheggiano Fault was simulated in a numerical tool specifically designed to model the 3-D distribution of fractures (joints and solution surfaces) along fault. Comparison between the actual fracture distribution and the predicted ones at different boundary conditions allowed to estimate the resulting stress field (both far field and near field) and the pore fluid pressure acting during fault motion and co-eval pluton emplacement. Numerical modelling predictions indicate transfer segments along the main fault as more permeable sectors. This justify the location intense mineralisation zones and abandoned mines.

Tidal Fluctuations in a Deep Fault Extending Under the Santa Barbara Channel, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garven, G.; Stone, J.; Boles, J. R.

2013-12-01

Faults are known to strongly affect deep groundwater flow, and exert a profound control on petroleum accumulation, migration, and natural seafloor seepage from coastal reservoirs within the young sedimentary basins of southern California. In this paper we focus on major fault structure permeability and compressibility in the Santa Barbara Basin, where unique submarine and subsurface instrumentation provide the hydraulic characterization of faults in a structurally complex system. Subsurface geologic logs, geophysical logs, fluid P-T-X data, seafloor seep discharge patterns, fault mineralization petrology, isotopic data, fluid inclusions, and structural models help characterize the hydrogeological nature of faults in this seismically-active and young geologic terrain. Unique submarine gas flow data from a natural submarine seep area of the Santa Barbara Channel help constrain fault permeability k ~ 30 millidarcys for large-scale upward migration of methane-bearing formation fluids along one of the major fault zones. At another offshore site near Platform Holly, pressure-transducer time-series data from a 1.5 km deep exploration well in the South Ellwood Field demonstrate a strong ocean tidal component, due to vertical fault connectivity to the seafloor. Analytical models from classic hydrologic papers by Jacob-Ferris-Bredehoeft-van der Kamp-Wang can be used to extract large-scale fault permeability and compressibility parameters, based on tidal signal amplitude attenuation and phase shift at depth. For the South Ellwood Fault, we estimate k ~ 38 millidarcys (hydraulic conductivity K~ 3.6E-07 m/s) and specific storage coefficient Ss ~ 5.5E-08 m-1. The tidal-derived hydraulic properties also suggest a low effective porosity for the fault zone, n ~ 1 to 3%. Results of forward modeling with 2-D finite element models illustrate significant lateral propagation of the tidal signal into highly-permeable Monterey Formation. The results have important practical implications for fault characterization, petroleum migration, structural diagenesis, and carbon sequestration.

On the implementation of faults in finite-element glacial isostatic adjustment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffen, Rebekka; Wu, Patrick; Steffen, Holger; Eaton, David W.

2014-01-01

Stresses induced in the crust and mantle by continental-scale ice sheets during glaciation have triggered earthquakes along pre-existing faults, commencing near the end of the deglaciation. In order to get a better understanding of the relationship between glacial loading/unloading and fault movement due to the spatio-temporal evolution of stresses, a commonly used model for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is extended by including a fault structure. Solving this problem is enabled by development of a workflow involving three cascaded finite-element simulations. Each step has identical lithospheric and mantle structure and properties, but evolving stress conditions along the fault. The purpose of the first simulation is to compute the spatio-temporal evolution of rebound stress when the fault is tied together. An ice load with a parabolic profile and simple ice history is applied to represent glacial loading of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The results of the first step describe the evolution of the stress and displacement induced by the rebound process. The second step in the procedure augments the results of the first, by computing the spatio-temporal evolution of total stress (i.e. rebound stress plus tectonic background stress and overburden pressure) and displacement with reaction forces that can hold the model in equilibrium. The background stress is estimated by assuming that the fault is in frictional equilibrium before glaciation. The third step simulates fault movement induced by the spatio-temporal evolution of total stress by evaluating fault stability in a subroutine. If the fault remains stable, no movement occurs; in case of fault instability, the fault displacement is computed. We show an example of fault motion along a 45°-dipping fault at the ice-sheet centre for a two-dimensional model. Stable conditions along the fault are found during glaciation and the initial part of deglaciation. Before deglaciation ends, the fault starts to move, and fault offsets of up to 22 m are obtained. A fault scarp at the surface of 19.74 m is determined. The fault is stable in the following time steps with a high stress accumulation at the fault tip. Along the upper part of the fault, GIA stresses are released in one earthquake.

Fuzzy Inference System Approach for Locating Series, Shunt, and Simultaneous Series-Shunt Faults in Double Circuit Transmission Lines

PubMed Central

Swetapadma, Aleena; Yadav, Anamika

2015-01-01

Many schemes are reported for shunt fault location estimation, but fault location estimation of series or open conductor faults has not been dealt with so far. The existing numerical relays only detect the open conductor (series) fault and give the indication of the faulty phase(s), but they are unable to locate the series fault. The repair crew needs to patrol the complete line to find the location of series fault. In this paper fuzzy based fault detection/classification and location schemes in time domain are proposed for both series faults, shunt faults, and simultaneous series and shunt faults. The fault simulation studies and fault location algorithm have been developed using Matlab/Simulink. Synchronized phasors of voltage and current signals of both the ends of the line have been used as input to the proposed fuzzy based fault location scheme. Percentage of error in location of series fault is within 1% and shunt fault is 5% for all the tested fault cases. Validation of percentage of error in location estimation is done using Chi square test with both 1% and 5% level of significance. PMID:26413088

Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grauer, Jared A.

2016-01-01

A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

The Slip Behavior and Source Parameters for Spontaneous Slip Events on Rough Faults Subjected to Slow Tectonic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tal, Yuval; Hager, Bradford H.

2018-02-01

We study the response to slow tectonic loading of rough faults governed by velocity weakening rate and state friction, using a 2-D plane strain model. Our numerical approach accounts for all stages in the seismic cycle, and in each simulation we model a sequence of two earthquakes or more. We focus on the global behavior of the faults and find that as the roughness amplitude, br, increases and the minimum wavelength of roughness decreases, there is a transition from seismic slip to aseismic slip, in which the load on the fault is released by more slip events but with lower slip rate, lower seismic moment per unit length, M0,1d, and lower average static stress drop on the fault, Δτt. Even larger decreases with roughness are observed when these source parameters are estimated only for the dynamic stage of the rupture. For br ≤ 0.002, the source parameters M0,1d and Δτt decrease mutually and the relationship between Δτt and the average fault strain is similar to that of a smooth fault. For faults with larger values of br that are completely ruptured during the slip events, the average fault strain generally decreases more rapidly with roughness than Δτt.

Source rupture process of the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion of strong-motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Ao; Wang, Mingfeng; Yu, Xiangwei; Zhang, Wenbo

2018-03-01

On 2016 November 13, an Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand near Kaikoura. The earthquake caused severe damages and great impacts on local nature and society. Referring to the tectonic environment and defined active faults, the field investigation and geodetic evidence reveal that at least 12 fault sections ruptured in the earthquake, and the focal mechanism is one of the most complicated in historical earthquakes. On account of the complexity of the source rupture, we propose a multisegment fault model based on the distribution of surface ruptures and active tectonics. We derive the source rupture process of the earthquake using the kinematic waveform inversion method with the multisegment fault model from strong-motion data of 21 stations (0.05-0.35 Hz). The inversion result suggests the rupture initiates in the epicentral area near the Humps fault, and then propagates northeastward along several faults, until the offshore Needles fault. The Mw 7.8 event is a mixture of right-lateral strike and reverse slip, and the maximum slip is approximately 19 m. The synthetic waveforms reproduce the characteristics of the observed ones well. In addition, we synthesize the coseismic offsets distribution of the ruptured region from the slips of upper subfaults in the fault model, which is roughly consistent with the surface breaks observed in the field survey.

Viscoelastic coupling model of the San Andreas fault along the big bend, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Lisowski, M.

1997-01-01

The big bend segment of the San Andreas fault is the 300-km-long segment in southern California that strikes about N65??W, roughly 25?? counterclockwise from the local tangent to the small circle about the Pacific-North America pole of rotation. The broad distribution of deformation of trilateration networks along this segment implies a locking depth of at least 25 km as interpreted by the conventional model of strain accumulation (continuous slip on the fault below the locking depth at the rate of relative plate motion), whereas the observed seismicity and laboratory data on fault strength suggest that the locking depth should be no greater than 10 to 15 km. The discrepancy is explained by the viscoelastic coupling model which accounts for the viscoelastic response of the lower crust. Thus the broad distribution of deformation observed across the big bend segment can be largely associated with the San Andreas fault itself, not subsidiary faults distributed throughout the region. The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [1995] in using geodetic data to estimate the seismic risk in southern California has assumed that strain accumulated off the San Andreas fault is released by earthquakes located off the San Andreas fault. Thus they count the San Andreas contribution to total seismic moment accumulation more than once, leading to an overestimate of the seismicity for magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes in their Type C zones.

Analysis and selection of magnitude relations for the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Olig, Susan; Schwartz, David

2015-01-01

Prior to calculating time-independent and -dependent earthquake probabilities for faults in the Wasatch Front region, the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) updated a seismic-source model for the region (Wong and others, 2014) and evaluated 19 historical regressions on earthquake magnitude (M). These regressions relate M to fault parameters for historical surface-faulting earthquakes, including linear fault length (e.g., surface-rupture length [SRL] or segment length), average displacement, maximum displacement, rupture area, seismic moment (Mo ), and slip rate. These regressions show that significant epistemic uncertainties complicate the determination of characteristic magnitude for fault sources in the Basin and Range Province (BRP). For example, we found that M estimates (as a function of SRL) span about 0.3–0.4 units (figure 1) owing to differences in the fault parameter used; age, quality, and size of historical earthquake databases; and fault type and region considered.

Precise tremor source locations and amplitude variations along the lower-crustal central San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2010-01-01

We precisely locate 88 tremor families along the central San Andreas Fault using a 3D velocity model and numerous P and S wave arrival times estimated from seismogram stacks of up to 400 events per tremor family. Maximum tremor amplitudes vary along the fault by at least a factor of 7, with by far the strongest sources along a 25 km section of the fault southeast of Parkfield. We also identify many weaker tremor families, which have largely escaped prior detection. Together, these sources extend 150 km along the fault, beneath creeping, transitional, and locked sections of the upper crustal fault. Depths are mostly between 18 and 28 km, in the lower crust. Epicenters are concentrated within 3 km of the surface trace, implying a nearly vertical fault. A prominent gap in detectible activity is located directly beneath the region of maximum slip in the 2004 magnitude 6.0 Parkfield earthquake.

Fault-tolerant cooperative output regulation for multi-vehicle systems with sensor faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Liguo; He, Xiao; Zhou, D. H.

2017-10-01

This paper presents a unified framework of fault diagnosis and fault-tolerant cooperative output regulation (FTCOR) for a linear discrete-time multi-vehicle system with sensor faults. The FTCOR control law is designed through three steps. A cooperative output regulation (COR) controller is designed based on the internal mode principle when there are no sensor faults. A sufficient condition on the existence of the COR controller is given based on the discrete-time algebraic Riccati equation (DARE). Then, a decentralised fault diagnosis scheme is designed to cope with sensor faults occurring in followers. A residual generator is developed to detect sensor faults of each follower, and a bank of fault-matching estimators are proposed to isolate and estimate sensor faults of each follower. Unlike the current distributed fault diagnosis for multi-vehicle systems, the presented decentralised fault diagnosis scheme in each vehicle reduces the communication and computation load by only using the information of the vehicle. By combing the sensor fault estimation and the COR control law, an FTCOR controller is proposed. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the FTCOR controller.

ASCS online fault detection and isolation based on an improved MPCA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jianxin; Liu, Haiou; Hu, Yuhui; Xi, Junqiang; Chen, Huiyan

2014-09-01

Multi-way principal component analysis (MPCA) has received considerable attention and been widely used in process monitoring. A traditional MPCA algorithm unfolds multiple batches of historical data into a two-dimensional matrix and cut the matrix along the time axis to form subspaces. However, low efficiency of subspaces and difficult fault isolation are the common disadvantages for the principal component model. This paper presents a new subspace construction method based on kernel density estimation function that can effectively reduce the storage amount of the subspace information. The MPCA model and the knowledge base are built based on the new subspace. Then, fault detection and isolation with the squared prediction error (SPE) statistic and the Hotelling ( T 2) statistic are also realized in process monitoring. When a fault occurs, fault isolation based on the SPE statistic is achieved by residual contribution analysis of different variables. For fault isolation of subspace based on the T 2 statistic, the relationship between the statistic indicator and state variables is constructed, and the constraint conditions are presented to check the validity of fault isolation. Then, to improve the robustness of fault isolation to unexpected disturbances, the statistic method is adopted to set the relation between single subspace and multiple subspaces to increase the corrective rate of fault isolation. Finally fault detection and isolation based on the improved MPCA is used to monitor the automatic shift control system (ASCS) to prove the correctness and effectiveness of the algorithm. The research proposes a new subspace construction method to reduce the required storage capacity and to prove the robustness of the principal component model, and sets the relationship between the state variables and fault detection indicators for fault isolation.

Tsunami Source Inversion Using Tide Gauge and DART Tsunami Waveforms of the 2017 Mw8.2 Mexico Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adriano, Bruno; Fujii, Yushiro; Koshimura, Shunichi; Mas, Erick; Ruiz-Angulo, Angel; Estrada, Miguel

2018-01-01

On September 8, 2017 (UTC), a normal-fault earthquake occurred 87 km off the southeast coast of Mexico. This earthquake generated a tsunami that was recorded at coastal tide gauge and offshore buoy stations. First, we conducted a numerical tsunami simulation using a single-fault model to understand the tsunami characteristics near the rupture area, focusing on the nearby tide gauge stations. Second, the tsunami source of this event was estimated from inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at six coastal stations and three buoys located in the deep ocean. Using the aftershock distribution within 1 day following the main shock, the fault plane orientation had a northeast dip direction (strike = 320°, dip = 77°, and rake =-92°). The results of the tsunami waveform inversion revealed that the fault area was 240 km × 90 km in size with most of the largest slip occurring on the middle and deepest segments of the fault. The maximum slip was 6.03 m from a 30 × 30 km2 segment that was 64.82 km deep at the center of the fault area. The estimated slip distribution showed that the main asperity was at the center of the fault area. The second asperity with an average slip of 5.5 m was found on the northwest-most segments. The estimated slip distribution yielded a seismic moment of 2.9 × 10^{21} Nm (Mw = 8.24), which was calculated assuming an average rigidity of 7× 10^{10} N/m2.

Uncertainties in slip-rate estimates for the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault at Biskra Palms Oasis, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behr, W.M.; Rood, D.H.; Fletcher, K.E.; Guzman, N.; Finkel, R.; Hanks, T.C.; Hudnut, K.W.; Kendrick, K.J.; Platt, J.P.; Sharp, W.D.; Weldon, R.J.; Yule, J.D.

2010-01-01

This study focuses on uncertainties in estimates of the geologic slip rate along the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault where it offsets an alluvial fan (T2) at Biskra Palms Oasis in southern California. We provide new estimates of the amount of fault offset of the T2 fan based on trench excavations and new cosmogenic 10Be age determinations from the tops of 12 boulders on the fan surface. We present three alternative fan offset models: a minimum, a maximum, and a preferred offset of 660 m, 980 m, and 770 m, respectively. We assign an age of between 45 and 54 ka to the T2 fan from the 10Be data, which is significantly older than previously reported but is consistent with both the degree of soil development associated with this surface, and with ages from U-series geochronology on pedogenic carbonate from T2, described in a companion paper by Fletcher et al. (this volume). These new constraints suggest a range of slip rates between ~12 and 22 mm/yr with a preferred estimate of ~14-17 mm/yr for the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault. Previous studies suggested that the geologic and geodetic slip-rate estimates at Biskra Palms differed. We find, however, that considerable uncertainty affects both the geologic and geodetic slip-rate estimates, such that if a real discrepancy between these rates exists for the southern San Andreas fault at Biskra Palms, it cannot be demonstrated with available data. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

3D fault curvature and fractal roughness: Insights for rupture dynamics and ground motions using a Discontinous Galerkin method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, Thomas; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes

2017-04-01

Natural fault geometries are subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Their geometrical structure is not directly observable and may only be inferred from surface traces, or geophysical measurements. Most studies aiming at assessing the potential seismic hazard of natural faults rely on idealised shaped models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. Dynamic rupture simulations aim to capture the observed complexity of earthquake sources and ground-motions. From a numerical point of view, incorporating rough faults in such simulations is challenging - it requires optimised codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computers and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physics-based rupture dynamics hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Moreover, the simulated ground-motions present many similarities with observed ground-motions records. Thus, such simulations may foster our understanding of earthquake source processes, and help deriving more accurate seismic hazard estimates. In this presentation, the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, is used to solve the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem. The usage of tetrahedral unstructured meshes naturally allows for complicated fault geometries. However, SeisSol's high-order discretisation in time and space is not particularly suited for small-scale fault roughness. We will demonstrate modelling conditions under which SeisSol resolves rupture dynamics on rough faults accurately. The strong impact of the geometric gradient of the fault surface on the rupture process is then shown in 3D simulations. Following, the benefits of explicitly modelling fault curvature and roughness, in distinction to prescribing heterogeneous initial stress conditions on a planar fault, is demonstrated. Furthermore, we show that rupture extend, rupture front coherency and rupture speed are highly dependent on the initial amplitude of stress acting on the fault, defined by the normalized prestress factor R, the ratio of the potential stress drop over the breakdown stress drop. The effects of fault complexity are particularly pronounced for lower R. By low-pass filtering a rough fault at several cut-off wavelengths, we then try to capture rupture complexity using a simplified fault geometry. We find that equivalent source dynamics can only be obtained using a scarcely filtered fault associated with a reduced stress level. To investigate the wavelength-dependent roughness effect, the fault geometry is bandpass-filtered over several spectral ranges. We show that geometric fluctuations cause rupture velocity fluctuations of similar length scale. The impact of fault geometry is especially pronounced when the rupture front velocity is near supershear. Roughness fluctuations significantly smaller than the rupture front characteristic dimension (cohesive zone size) affect only macroscopic rupture properties, thus, posing a minimum length scale limiting the required resolution of 3D fault complexity. Lastly, the effect of fault curvature and roughness on the simulated ground-motions is assessed. Despite employing a simple linear slip weakening friction law, the simulated ground-motions compare well with estimates from ground motions prediction equations, even at relatively high frequencies.

Refining fault slip rates using multiple displaced terrace risers-An example from the Honey Lake fault, NE California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Ryan D.; Briggs, Richard W.; Crone, Anthony J.; DuRoss, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

Faulted terrace risers are semi-planar features commonly used to constrain Quaternary slip rates along strike-slip faults. These landforms are difficult to date directly and therefore their ages are commonly bracketed by age estimates of the adjacent upper and lower terrace surfaces. However, substantial differences in the ages of the upper and lower terrace surfaces (a factor of 2.4 difference observed globally) produce large uncertainties in the slip-rate estimate. In this investigation, we explore how the full range of displacements and bounding ages from multiple faulted terrace risers can be combined to yield a more accurate fault slip rate. We use 0.25-m cell size digital terrain models derived from airborne lidar data to analyze three sites where terrace risers are offset right-laterally by the Honey Lake fault in NE California, USA. We use ages for locally extensive subhorizontal surfaces to bracket the time of riser formation: an upper surface is the bed of abandoned Lake Lahontan having an age of 15.8 ± 0.6 ka and a lower surface is a fluvial terrace abandoned at 4.7 ± 0.1 ka. We estimate lateral offsets of the risers ranging between 6.6 and 28.3 m (median values), a greater than fourfold difference in values. The amount of offset corresponds to the riser's position relative to modern stream meanders: the smallest offset is in a meander cutbank position, whereas the larger offsets are in straight channel or meander point-bar positions. Taken in isolation, the individual terrace-riser offsets yield slip rates ranging from 0.3 to 7.1 mm/a. However, when the offset values are collectively assessed in a probabilistic framework, we find that a uniform (linear) slip rate of 1.6 mm/a (1.4-1.9 mm/a at 95% confidence) can satisfy the data, within their respective uncertainties. This investigation demonstrates that integrating observations of multiple offset elements (crest, midpoint, and base) from numerous faulted and dated terrace risers at closely spaced sites can refine slip-rate estimates on strike-slip faults.

Refining fault slip rates using multiple displaced terrace risers—An example from the Honey Lake fault, NE California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Ryan D.; Briggs, Richard; Crone, Anthony J.; Duross, Christopher

2017-01-01

Faulted terrace risers are semi-planar features commonly used to constrain Quaternary slip rates along strike-slip faults. These landforms are difficult to date directly and therefore their ages are commonly bracketed by age estimates of the adjacent upper and lower terrace surfaces. However, substantial differences in the ages of the upper and lower terrace surfaces (a factor of 2.4 difference observed globally) produce large uncertainties in the slip-rate estimate. In this investigation, we explore how the full range of displacements and bounding ages from multiple faulted terrace risers can be combined to yield a more accurate fault slip rate. We use 0.25-m cell size digital terrain models derived from airborne lidar data to analyze three sites where terrace risers are offset right-laterally by the Honey Lake fault in NE California, USA. We use ages for locally extensive subhorizontal surfaces to bracket the time of riser formation: an upper surface is the bed of abandoned Lake Lahontan having an age of 15.8 ± 0.6 ka and a lower surface is a fluvial terrace abandoned at 4.7 ± 0.1 ka. We estimate lateral offsets of the risers ranging between 6.6 and 28.3 m (median values), a greater than fourfold difference in values. The amount of offset corresponds to the riser's position relative to modern stream meanders: the smallest offset is in a meander cutbank position, whereas the larger offsets are in straight channel or meander point-bar positions. Taken in isolation, the individual terrace-riser offsets yield slip rates ranging from 0.3 to 7.1 mm/a. However, when the offset values are collectively assessed in a probabilistic framework, we find that a uniform (linear) slip rate of 1.6 mm/a (1.4–1.9 mm/a at 95% confidence) can satisfy the data, within their respective uncertainties. This investigation demonstrates that integrating observations of multiple offset elements (crest, midpoint, and base) from numerous faulted and dated terrace risers at closely spaced sites can refine slip-rate estimates on strike-slip faults.

Seismic Hazard and Fault Length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, N. M.; Jackson, D. D.; Mualchin, L.

2005-12-01

If mx is the largest earthquake magnitude that can occur on a fault, then what is mp, the largest magnitude that should be expected during the planned lifetime of a particular structure? Most approaches to these questions rely on an estimate of the Maximum Credible Earthquake, obtained by regression (e.g. Wells and Coppersmith, 1994) of fault length (or area) and magnitude. Our work differs in two ways. First, we modify the traditional approach to measuring fault length, to allow for hidden fault complexity and multi-fault rupture. Second, we use a magnitude-frequency relationship to calculate the largest magnitude expected to occur within a given time interval. Often fault length is poorly defined and multiple faults rupture together in a single event. Therefore, we need to expand the definition of a mapped fault length to obtain a more accurate estimate of the maximum magnitude. In previous work, we compared fault length vs. rupture length for post-1975 earthquakes in Southern California. In this study, we found that mapped fault length and rupture length are often unequal, and in several cases rupture broke beyond the previously mapped fault traces. To expand the geologic definition of fault length we outlined several guidelines: 1) if a fault truncates at young Quaternary alluvium, the fault line should be inferred underneath the younger sediments 2) faults striking within 45° of one another should be treated as a continuous fault line and 3) a step-over can link together faults at least 5 km apart. These definitions were applied to fault lines in Southern California. For example, many of the along-strike faults lines in the Mojave Desert are treated as a single fault trending from the Pinto Mountain to the Garlock fault. In addition, the Rose Canyon and Newport-Inglewood faults are treated as a single fault line. We used these more generous fault lengths, and the Wells and Coppersmith regression, to estimate the maximum magnitude (mx) for the major faults in southern California. Then we compared our mx values with those proposed by CALTRANS, and those assumed in the 2002 USGS/CGS hazard model. To calculate the planning magnitude mp we assumed a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with parameters a, b, and mx. We fixed b and solved for the a-value in terms of mx, b, and the tectonic moment rate. For many faults mp is relatively insensitive to mx and typically falls off at higher magnitudes because the a-value decreases with increasing mx when the moment rate is constrained. Furthermore, we find that by increasing mx the cumulative earthquake rate actually decreases for smaller magnitude (5 and 6) events. This suggests that fewer magnitude 5 and 6 earthquakes are required to balance the moment budget if larger, but highly infrequent, earthquakes are allowed to occur.

Mixed linear-nonlinear fault slip inversion: Bayesian inference of model, weighting, and smoothing parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, J.; Johnson, K. M.

2009-12-01

Studies utilizing inversions of geodetic data for the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults typically present the result as a single fault plane and slip distribution. Commonly the geometry of the fault plane is assumed to be known a priori and the data are inverted for slip. However, sometimes there is not strong a priori information on the geometry of the fault that produced the earthquake and the data is not always strong enough to completely resolve the fault geometry. We develop a method to solve for the full posterior probability distribution of fault slip and fault geometry parameters in a Bayesian framework using Monte Carlo methods. The slip inversion problem is particularly challenging because it often involves multiple data sets with unknown relative weights (e.g. InSAR, GPS), model parameters that are related linearly (slip) and nonlinearly (fault geometry) through the theoretical model to surface observations, prior information on model parameters, and a regularization prior to stabilize the inversion. We present the theoretical framework and solution method for a Bayesian inversion that can handle all of these aspects of the problem. The method handles the mixed linear/nonlinear nature of the problem through combination of both analytical least-squares solutions and Monte Carlo methods. We first illustrate and validate the inversion scheme using synthetic data sets. We then apply the method to inversion of geodetic data from the 2003 M6.6 San Simeon, California earthquake. We show that the uncertainty in strike and dip of the fault plane is over 20 degrees. We characterize the uncertainty in the slip estimate with a volume around the mean fault solution in which the slip most likely occurred. Slip likely occurred somewhere in a volume that extends 5-10 km in either direction normal to the fault plane. We implement slip inversions with both traditional, kinematic smoothing constraints on slip and a simple physical condition of uniform stress drop.

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Rajan; Lee, Larry D.

1990-01-01

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

The 2018 and 2020 Updates of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, M. D.

2017-12-01

During 2018 the USGS will update the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Models by incorporating new seismicity models, ground motion models, site factors, fault inputs, and by improving weights to ground motion models using empirical and other data. We will update the earthquake catalog for the U.S. and introduce new rate models. Additional fault data will be used to improve rate estimates on active faults. New ground motion models (GMMs) and site factors for Vs30 have been released by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) and we will consider these in assessing ground motions in craton and extended margin regions of the central and eastern U.S. The USGS will also include basin-depth terms for selected urban areas of the western United States to improve long-period shaking assessments using published depth estimates to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear wave velocities. We will produce hazard maps for input into the building codes that span a broad range of periods (0.1 to 5 s) and site classes (shear wave velocity from 2000 m/s to 200 m/s in the upper 30 m of the crust, Vs30). In the 2020 update we plan on including: a new national crustal model that defines basin depths required in the latest GMMs, new 3-D ground motion simulations for several urban areas, new magnitude-area equations, and new fault geodetic and geologic strain rate models. The USGS will also consider including new 3-D ground motion simulations for inclusion in these long-period maps. These new models are being evaluated and will be discussed at one or more regional and topical workshops held at the beginning of 2018.

Source process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mj7.3) inferred from kinematic inversion of strong-motion records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Kunikazu; Miyakoshi, Ken; Somei, Kazuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-05-01

In this study, we estimated source process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake from strong-motion data by using the multiple-time window linear kinematic waveform inversion method to discuss generation of strong motions and to explain crustal deformation pattern with a seismic source inversion model. A four-segment fault model was assumed based on the aftershock distribution, active fault traces, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data. Three western segments were set to be northwest-dipping planes, and the most eastern segment under the Aso caldera was examined to be a southeast-dipping plane. The velocity structure models used in this study were estimated by using waveform modeling of moderate earthquakes that occurred in the source region. We applied a two-step approach of the inversions of 20 strong-motion datasets observed by K-NET and KiK-net by using band-pass-filtered strong-motion data at 0.05-0.5 Hz and then at 0.05-1.0 Hz. The rupture area of the fault plane was determined by applying the criterion of Somerville et al. (Seismol Res Lett 70:59-80, 1999) to the inverted slip distribution. From the first-step inversion, the fault length was trimmed from 52 to 44 km, whereas the fault width was kept at 18 km. The trimmed rupture area was not changed in the second-step inversion. The source model obtained from the two-step approach indicated 4.7 × 1019 Nm of the total moment release and 1.8 m average slip of the entire fault with a rupture area of 792 km2. Large slip areas were estimated in the seismogenic zone and in the shallow part corresponding to the surface rupture that occurred during the Mj7.3 mainshock. The areas of the high peak moment rate correlated roughly with those of large slip; however, the moment rate functions near the Earth surface have low peak, bell shape, and long duration. These subfaults with long-duration moment release are expected to cause weak short-period ground motions. We confirmed that the southeast dipping of the most eastern segment is more plausible rather than northwest-dipping from the observed subsidence around the central cones of the Aso volcano.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Deformation across the Pacific-North America plate boundary near San Francisco, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prescott, W.H.; Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.; Manaker, D.

2001-01-01

We have detected a narrow zone of compression between the Coast Ranges and the Great Valley, and we have estimated slip rates for the San Andreas, Rodgers Creek, and Green Valley faults just north of San Francisco. These results are based on an analysis of campaign and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected between 1992 and 2000 in central California. The zone of compression between the Coast Ranges and the Great Valley is 25 km wide. The observations clearly show 3.8??1.5 mm yr-1 of shortening over this narrow zone. The strike slip components are best fit by a model with 20.8??1.9 mm yr-1 slip on the San Andreas fault, 10.3??2.6 mm yr-1 on the Rodgers Creek fault, and 8.1??2.1 mm yr-1 on the Green Valley fault. The Pacific-Sierra Nevada-Great Valley motion totals 39.2??3.8 mm yr-1 across a zone that is 120 km wide (at the latitude of San Francisco). Standard deviations are one ??. The geodetic results suggest a higher than geologic rate for the Green Valley fault. The geodetic results also suggest an inconsistency between geologic estimates of the San Andreas rate and seismologic estimates of the depth of locking on the San Andreas fault. The only convergence observed is in the narrow zone along the border between the Great Valley and the Coast Ranges.

Strike-slip faulting in the Inner California Borderlands, offshore Southern California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, J. M.; Kent, G. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Harding, A. J.; Sahakian, V. J.; Holmes, J. J.; Klotsko, S.; Kell, A. M.; Wesnousky, S. G.

2015-12-01

In the Inner California Borderlands (ICB), offshore of Southern California, modern dextral strike-slip faulting overprints a prominent system of basins and ridges formed during plate boundary reorganization 30-15 Ma. Geodetic data indicate faults in the ICB accommodate 6-8 mm/yr of Pacific-North American plate boundary deformation; however, the hazard posed by the ICB faults is poorly understood due to unknown fault geometry and loosely constrained slip rates. We present observations from high-resolution and reprocessed legacy 2D multichannel seismic (MCS) reflection datasets and multibeam bathymetry to constrain the modern fault architecture and tectonic evolution of the ICB. We use a sequence stratigraphy approach to identify discrete episodes of deformation in the MCS data and present the results of our mapping in a regional fault model that distinguishes active faults from relict structures. Significant differences exist between our model of modern ICB deformation and existing models. From east to west, the major active faults are the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Palos Verdes, San Diego Trough, and San Clemente fault zones. Localized deformation on the continental slope along the San Mateo, San Onofre, and Carlsbad trends results from geometrical complexities in the dextral fault system. Undeformed early to mid-Pleistocene age sediments onlap and overlie deformation associated with the northern Coronado Bank fault (CBF) and the breakaway zone of the purported Oceanside Blind Thrust. Therefore, we interpret the northern CBF to be inactive, and slip rate estimates based on linkage with the Holocene active Palos Verdes fault are unwarranted. In the western ICB, the San Diego Trough fault (SDTF) and San Clemente fault have robust linear geomorphic expression, which suggests that these faults may accommodate a significant portion of modern ICB slip in a westward temporal migration of slip. The SDTF offsets young sediments between the US/Mexico border and the eastern margin of Avalon Knoll, where the fault is spatially coincident and potentially linked with the San Pedro Basin fault (SPBF). Kinematic linkage between the SDTF and the SPBF increases the potential rupture length for earthquakes on either fault and may allow events nucleating on the SDTF to propagate much closer to the LA Basin.

Aircraft engine sensor fault diagnostics using an on-line OBEM update method.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng; Xue, Naiyu; Yuan, Ye

2017-01-01

This paper proposed a method to update the on-line health reference baseline of the On-Board Engine Model (OBEM) to maintain the effectiveness of an in-flight aircraft sensor Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system, in which a Hybrid Kalman Filter (HKF) was incorporated. Generated from a rapid in-flight engine degradation, a large health condition mismatch between the engine and the OBEM can corrupt the performance of the FDI. Therefore, it is necessary to update the OBEM online when a rapid degradation occurs, but the FDI system will lose estimation accuracy if the estimation and update are running simultaneously. To solve this problem, the health reference baseline for a nonlinear OBEM was updated using the proposed channel controller method. Simulations based on the turbojet engine Linear-Parameter Varying (LPV) model demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed FDI system in the presence of substantial degradation, and the channel controller can ensure that the update process finishes without interference from a single sensor fault.

Aircraft engine sensor fault diagnostics using an on-line OBEM update method

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaofeng; Xue, Naiyu; Yuan, Ye

2017-01-01

This paper proposed a method to update the on-line health reference baseline of the On-Board Engine Model (OBEM) to maintain the effectiveness of an in-flight aircraft sensor Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system, in which a Hybrid Kalman Filter (HKF) was incorporated. Generated from a rapid in-flight engine degradation, a large health condition mismatch between the engine and the OBEM can corrupt the performance of the FDI. Therefore, it is necessary to update the OBEM online when a rapid degradation occurs, but the FDI system will lose estimation accuracy if the estimation and update are running simultaneously. To solve this problem, the health reference baseline for a nonlinear OBEM was updated using the proposed channel controller method. Simulations based on the turbojet engine Linear-Parameter Varying (LPV) model demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed FDI system in the presence of substantial degradation, and the channel controller can ensure that the update process finishes without interference from a single sensor fault. PMID:28182692

Present-day crustal deformation and strain transfer in northeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuhang; Liu, Mian; Wang, Qingliang; Cui, Duxin

2018-04-01

The three-dimensional present-day crustal deformation and strain partitioning in northeastern Tibetan Plateau are analyzed using available GPS and precise leveling data. We used the multi-scale wavelet method to analyze strain rates, and the elastic block model to estimate slip rates on the major faults and internal strain within each block. Our results show that shear strain is strongly localized along major strike-slip faults, as expected in the tectonic extrusion model. However, extrusion ends and transfers to crustal contraction near the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The strain transfer is abrupt along the Haiyuan Fault and diffusive along the East Kunlun Fault. Crustal contraction is spatially correlated with active uplifting. The present-day strain is concentrated along major fault zones; however, within many terranes bounded by these faults, intra-block strain is detectable. Terranes having high intra-block strain rates also show strong seismicity. On average the Ordos and Sichuan blocks show no intra-block strain, but localized strain on the southwestern corner of the Ordos block indicates tectonic encroachment.

Sliding Mode Observer-Based Current Sensor Fault Reconstruction and Unknown Load Disturbance Estimation for PMSM Driven System.

PubMed

Zhao, Kaihui; Li, Peng; Zhang, Changfan; Li, Xiangfei; He, Jing; Lin, Yuliang

2017-12-06

This paper proposes a new scheme of reconstructing current sensor faults and estimating unknown load disturbance for a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM)-driven system. First, the original PMSM system is transformed into two subsystems; the first subsystem has unknown system load disturbances, which are unrelated to sensor faults, and the second subsystem has sensor faults, but is free from unknown load disturbances. Introducing a new state variable, the augmented subsystem that has sensor faults can be transformed into having actuator faults. Second, two sliding mode observers (SMOs) are designed: the unknown load disturbance is estimated by the first SMO in the subsystem, which has unknown load disturbance, and the sensor faults can be reconstructed using the second SMO in the augmented subsystem, which has sensor faults. The gains of the proposed SMOs and their stability analysis are developed via the solution of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme was verified by simulations and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can reconstruct current sensor faults and estimate unknown load disturbance for the PMSM-driven system.

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along Dipping Faults, with a focus on the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, K.; Moschetti, M. P.

2017-12-01

We study dynamic rupture and ground motion from dip-slip faults in regions that have high-seismic hazard, such as the Wasatch fault zone, Utah. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion along segments of this fault in the heavily populated regions near Salt Lake City but were restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). We seek to better understand the rupture process and assess broadband ground motions and variability from the Wasatch Fault Zone by extending deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies (up to 5 Hz). We perform simulations along a dipping normal fault (40 x 20 km along strike and width, respectively) with characteristics derived from geologic observations to generate a suite of ruptures > Mw 6.5. This approach utilizes dynamic simulations (fully physics-based models, where the initial stress drop and friction law are imposed) using a summation by parts (SBP) method. The simulations include rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) in addition to off-fault plasticity. Energy losses from heat and other mechanisms, modeled as anelastic attenuation, are also included, as well as free-surface topography, which can significantly affect ground motion patterns. We compare the effect of material structure and both rate and state and slip-weakening friction laws have on rupture propagation. The simulations show reduced slip and moment release in the near surface with the inclusion of plasticity, better agreeing with observations of shallow slip deficit. Long-wavelength fault geometry imparts a non-uniform stress distribution along both dip and strike, influencing the preferred rupture direction and hypocenter location, potentially important for seismic hazard estimation.

Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, John Charles

The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a significant roll in the variability of earthquake repeat times. Specifically, small perturbations in the model parameters can lead to results similar to such observed phenomena as earthquake clustering and disruptions to so-called "characteristic" earthquake cycles.

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward Fault in North Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lienkaemper, James J.; Williams, Patrick L.

1999-07-01

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776.

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward fault in north Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.

1999-01-01

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Bayesian explorations of fault slip evolution over the earthquake cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duputel, Z.; Jolivet, R.; Benoit, A.; Gombert, B.

2017-12-01

The ever-increasing amount of geophysical data continuously opens new perspectives on fundamental aspects of the seismogenic behavior of active faults. In this context, the recent fleet of SAR satellites including Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMED permits the use of InSAR for time-dependent slip modeling with unprecedented resolution in time and space. However, existing time-dependent slip models rely on spatial smoothing regularization schemes, which can produce unrealistically smooth slip distributions. In addition, these models usually do not include uncertainty estimates thereby reducing the utility of such estimates. Here, we develop an entirely new approach to derive probabilistic time-dependent slip models. This Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method involves a series of transitional steps to predict and update posterior Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of slip as a function of time. We assess the viability of our approach using various slow-slip event scenarios. Using a dense set of SAR images, we also use this method to quantify the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of slip along a creeping segment of the North Anatolian Fault. This allows us to track a shallow aseismic slip transient lasting for about a month with a maximum slip of about 2 cm.

Long-term temperature monitoring at the biological community site on the Nankai accretionary prism off Kii Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goto, S.; Hamamoto, H.; Yamano, M.; Kinoshita, M.; Ashi, J.

2008-12-01

Nankai subduction zone off Kii Peninsula is one of the most intensively surveyed areas for studies on the seismogenic zone. Multichannel seismic reflection surveys carried out in this area revealed the existence of splay faults that branched from the subduction zone plate boundary [Park et al., 2002]. Along the splay faults, reversal of reflection polarity was observed, indicating elevated pore fluid pressure along the faults. Cold seepages with biological communities were discovered along a seafloor outcrop of one of the splay faults through submersible observations. Long-term temperature monitoring at a biological community site along the outcrop revealed high heat flow carried by upward fluid flow (>180 mW/m2) [Goto et al., 2003]. Toki et al. [2004] estimated upward fluid flow rates of 40-200 cm/yr from chloride distribution of interstitial water extracted from sediments in and around biological community sites along the outcrop. These observation results suggest upward fluid flow along the splay fault. In order to investigate hydrological nature of the splay fault, we conducted long-term temperature monitoring again in the same cold seepage site where Goto et al. [2003] carried out long-term temperature monitoring. In this presentation, we present results of the temperature monitoring and estimate heat flow carried by upward fluid flow from the temperature records. In this long-term temperature monitoring, we used stand-alone heat flow meter (SAHF), a probe-type sediment temperature recorder. Two SAHFs (SAHF-3 and SAHF-4) were used in this study. SAHF-4 was inserted into a bacterial mat, within several meters of which the previous long-term temperature monitoring was conducted. SAHF-3 was penetrated into ordinary sediment near the bacterial mat. The sub-bottom temperature records were obtained for 8 months. The subsurface temperatures oscillated reflecting bottom- water temperature variation (BTV). For sub-bottom temperatures measured with SAHF-3 (outside of the bacterial mat), we found that the effects of the BTV propagated into sediment by conduction only. By correcting the effect of the BTV, conductive heat flow estimated is higher than 100 mW/m2. Sub-bottom temperatures measured within bacterial mat (SAHF-4) except for the topmost sensor could be explained by a conduction model. The heat flow estimated based on the conduction model is similar to that measured with SAHF-3. The temperature of the topmost sensor is slightly higher than that expected from the conduction model. To explain the high temperature, upward fluid flow at a rate of 10-7 m/s order is needed. Heat flow carried by the upward fluid flow is higher than that estimated by Goto et al. [2003]. Heat flow value expected from the distribution of heat flow around this area is 70-80 mW/m2. The high heat flow values inside and outside the bacterial mat estimated in the present and previous studies may reflect upward fluid flow along the splay fault.

Holocene geologic slip rate for the Banning strand of the southern San Andreas Fault, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Peter O.; Behr, Whitney M.; Rood, Dylan; Sharp, Warren D.; Rockwell, Thomas; Kendrick, Katherine J.; Salin, Aaron

2015-01-01

Northwest directed slip from the southern San Andreas Fault is transferred to the Mission Creek, Banning, and Garnet Hill fault strands in the northwestern Coachella Valley. How slip is partitioned between these three faults is critical to southern California seismic hazard estimates but is poorly understood. In this paper, we report the first slip rate measured for the Banning fault strand. We constrain the depositional age of an alluvial fan offset 25 ± 5 m from its source by the Banning strand to between 5.1 ± 0.4 ka (95% confidence interval (CI)) and 6.4 + 3.7/−2.1 ka (95% CI) using U-series dating of pedogenic carbonate clast coatings and 10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating of surface clasts. We calculate a Holocene geologic slip rate for the Banning strand of 3.9 + 2.3/−1.6 mm/yr (median, 95% CI) to 4.9 + 1.0/−0.9 mm/yr (median, 95% CI). This rate represents only 25–35% of the total slip accommodated by this section of the southern San Andreas Fault, suggesting a model in which slip is less concentrated on the Banning strand than previously thought. In rejecting the possibility that the Banning strand is the dominant structure, our results highlight an even greater need for slip rate and paleoseismic measurements along faults in the northwestern Coachella Valley in order to test the validity of current earthquake hazard models. In addition, our comparison of ages measured with U-series and 10Be exposure dating demonstrates the importance of using multiple geochronometers when estimating the depositional age of alluvial landforms.

Fault Diagnosis for the Heat Exchanger of the Aircraft Environmental Control System Based on the Strong Tracking Filter

PubMed Central

Ma, Jian; Lu, Chen; Liu, Hongmei

2015-01-01

The aircraft environmental control system (ECS) is a critical aircraft system, which provides the appropriate environmental conditions to ensure the safe transport of air passengers and equipment. The functionality and reliability of ECS have received increasing attention in recent years. The heat exchanger is a particularly significant component of the ECS, because its failure decreases the system’s efficiency, which can lead to catastrophic consequences. Fault diagnosis of the heat exchanger is necessary to prevent risks. However, two problems hinder the implementation of the heat exchanger fault diagnosis in practice. First, the actual measured parameter of the heat exchanger cannot effectively reflect the fault occurrence, whereas the heat exchanger faults are usually depicted by utilizing the corresponding fault-related state parameters that cannot be measured directly. Second, both the traditional Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the EKF-based Double Model Filter have certain disadvantages, such as sensitivity to modeling errors and difficulties in selection of initialization values. To solve the aforementioned problems, this paper presents a fault-related parameter adaptive estimation method based on strong tracking filter (STF) and Modified Bayes classification algorithm for fault detection and failure mode classification of the heat exchanger, respectively. Heat exchanger fault simulation is conducted to generate fault data, through which the proposed methods are validated. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods are capable of providing accurate, stable, and rapid fault diagnosis of the heat exchanger. PMID:25823010

Fault diagnosis for the heat exchanger of the aircraft environmental control system based on the strong tracking filter.

PubMed

Ma, Jian; Lu, Chen; Liu, Hongmei

2015-01-01

The aircraft environmental control system (ECS) is a critical aircraft system, which provides the appropriate environmental conditions to ensure the safe transport of air passengers and equipment. The functionality and reliability of ECS have received increasing attention in recent years. The heat exchanger is a particularly significant component of the ECS, because its failure decreases the system's efficiency, which can lead to catastrophic consequences. Fault diagnosis of the heat exchanger is necessary to prevent risks. However, two problems hinder the implementation of the heat exchanger fault diagnosis in practice. First, the actual measured parameter of the heat exchanger cannot effectively reflect the fault occurrence, whereas the heat exchanger faults are usually depicted by utilizing the corresponding fault-related state parameters that cannot be measured directly. Second, both the traditional Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the EKF-based Double Model Filter have certain disadvantages, such as sensitivity to modeling errors and difficulties in selection of initialization values. To solve the aforementioned problems, this paper presents a fault-related parameter adaptive estimation method based on strong tracking filter (STF) and Modified Bayes classification algorithm for fault detection and failure mode classification of the heat exchanger, respectively. Heat exchanger fault simulation is conducted to generate fault data, through which the proposed methods are validated. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods are capable of providing accurate, stable, and rapid fault diagnosis of the heat exchanger.

Shallow subsurface structure of the Wasatch fault, Provo segment, Utah, from integrated compressional and shear-wave seismic reflection profiles with implications for fault structure and development

USGS Publications Warehouse

McBride, J.H.; Stephenson, W.J.; Williams, R.A.; Odum, J.K.; Worley, D.M.; South, J.V.; Brinkerhoff, A.R.; Keach, R.W.; Okojie-Ayoro, A. O.

2010-01-01

Integrated vibroseis compressional and experimental hammer-source, shear-wave, seismic reflection profiles across the Provo segment of the Wasatch fault zone in Utah reveal near-surface and shallow bedrock structures caused by geologically recent deformation. Combining information from the seismic surveys, geologic mapping, terrain analysis, and previous seismic first-arrival modeling provides a well-constrained cross section of the upper ~500 m of the subsurface. Faults are mapped from the surface, through shallow, poorly consolidated deltaic sediments, and cutting through a rigid bedrock surface. The new seismic data are used to test hypotheses on changing fault orientation with depth, the number of subsidiary faults within the fault zone and the width of the fault zone, and the utility of integrating separate elastic methods to provide information on a complex structural zone. Although previous surface mapping has indicated only a few faults, the seismic section shows a wider and more complex deformation zone with both synthetic and antithetic normal faults. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of a combined shallow and deeper penetrating geophysical survey, integrated with detailed geologic mapping to constrain subsurface fault structure. Due to the complexity of the fault zone, accurate seismic velocity information is essential and was obtained from a first-break tomography model. The new constraints on fault geometry can be used to refine estimates of vertical versus lateral tectonic movements and to improve seismic hazard assessment along the Wasatch fault through an urban area. We suggest that earthquake-hazard assessments made without seismic reflection imaging may be biased by the previous mapping of too few faults. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Structural Analysis of Ogygis Rupes Lobate Scarp on Mars.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero-Gil, A.; Ruiz, J.; Romeo, I.; Egea-González, I.

2016-12-01

Ogygis Rupes is a 200 kilometers long lobate scarp, striking N30ºE, with approximately 2km of maximum structural relief. It is located in Aonia Terra, in the southern hemisphere of Mars near the northeast margin of Argyre impact basin. Similar to other large lobate scarps on Mercury or Mars, it shows a roughly arcuate to linear form, and an asymmetric cross section with a steeply rising scarp face and a gently declining back scarp. This asymmetry suggests that Ogygis Rupes is the topographic expression of a ESE-vergent thrust fault. By using the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter data and the Mars imagery available we have measure the horizontal shortening on impact craters cross-cut by this lobate scarp to obtain a minimum value for the horizontal offset of the underling fault. Two complementary methods were used to estimate fault geometry parameters as fault displacement, dip angle and depth of faulting: (i) analyzing topographic profiles together with the horizontal shortening estimations from cross-cut craters to create balanced cross sections on the basis of the thrust fault propagation folding [1]; (ii) using a forward mechanical dislocation method [2], which predicts fault geometry by comparing model outputs with real topography. The significant size of the fault underlying this lobate scarp suggests that its detachment is located at a main rheological change, for which we have obtained a preliminary depth value of around 30 kilometers by the methods listed above. Estimates of the depth of faulting in similar lobate scarps [3] have been associated to the depth of the brittle-ductile transition. [1] Suppe (1983), Am. J. Sci., 283, 648-721; Seeber and Sorlien (2000), Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 112, 1067-1079. [2] Toda et al. (1998) JGR, 103, 24543-24565. [3] i.e. Schultz and Watters (2001) Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4659-4662; Ruiz et al. (2008) EPSL, 270, 1-12; Egea-Gonzalez et al. (2012) PSS, 60, 193-198; Mueller et al. (2014) EPSL, 408, 100-109.

Implications of the earthquake cycle for inferring fault locking on the Cascadia megathrust

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred; Evans, Eileen

2017-01-01

GPS velocity fields in the Western US have been interpreted with various physical models of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system: (1) time-independent block models; (2) time-dependent viscoelastic-cycle models, where deformation is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle from past faulting events; (3) viscoelastic block models, a time-dependent variation of the block model. All three models are generally driven by a combination of loading on locked faults and (aseismic) fault creep. Here we construct viscoelastic block models and viscoelastic-cycle models for the Western US, focusing on the Pacific Northwest and the earthquake cycle on the Cascadia megathrust. In the viscoelastic block model, the western US is divided into blocks selected from an initial set of 137 microplates using the method of Total Variation Regularization, allowing potential trade-offs between faulting and megathrust coupling to be determined algorithmically from GPS observations. Fault geometry, slip rate, and locking rates (i.e. the locking fraction times the long term slip rate) are estimated simultaneously within the TVR block model. For a range of mantle asthenosphere viscosity (4.4 × 1018 to 3.6 × 1020 Pa s) we find that fault locking on the megathrust is concentrated in the uppermost 20 km in depth, and a locking rate contour line of 30 mm yr−1 extends deepest beneath the Olympic Peninsula, characteristics similar to previous time-independent block model results. These results are corroborated by viscoelastic-cycle modelling. The average locking rate required to fit the GPS velocity field depends on mantle viscosity, being higher the lower the viscosity. Moreover, for viscosity ≲ 1020 Pa s, the amount of inferred locking is higher than that obtained using a time-independent block model. This suggests that time-dependent models for a range of admissible viscosity structures could refine our knowledge of the locking distribution and its epistemic uncertainty.

Modeling of time-lapse multi-scale seismic monitoring of CO2 injected into a fault zone to enhance the characterization of permeability in enhanced geothermal systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, R.; Borgia, A.; Daley, T. M.; Oldenburg, C. M.; Jung, Y.; Lee, K. J.; Doughty, C.; Altundas, B.; Chugunov, N.; Ramakrishnan, T. S.

2017-12-01

Subsurface permeable faults and fracture networks play a critical role for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) by providing conduits for fluid flow. Characterization of the permeable flow paths before and after stimulation is necessary to evaluate and optimize energy extraction. To provide insight into the feasibility of using CO2 as a contrast agent to enhance fault characterization by seismic methods, we model seismic monitoring of supercritical CO2 (scCO2) injected into a fault. During the CO2 injection, the original brine is replaced by scCO2, which leads to variations in geophysical properties of the formation. To explore the technical feasibility of the approach, we present modeling results for different time-lapse seismic methods including surface seismic, vertical seismic profiling (VSP), and a cross-well survey. We simulate the injection and production of CO2 into a normal fault in a system based on the Brady's geothermal field and model pressure and saturation variations in the fault zone using TOUGH2-ECO2N. The simulation results provide changing fluid properties during the injection, such as saturation and salinity changes, which allow us to estimate corresponding changes in seismic properties of the fault and the formation. We model the response of the system to active seismic monitoring in time-lapse mode using an anisotropic finite difference method with modifications for fracture compliance. Results to date show that even narrow fault and fracture zones filled with CO2 can be better detected using the VSP and cross-well survey geometry, while it would be difficult to image the CO2 plume by using surface seismic methods.

Fast Computation of Ground Motion Shaking Map base on the Modified Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, W.; Zhong, Q.; Shi, B.

2012-12-01

Rapidly regional MMI mapping soon after a moderate-large earthquake is crucial to loss estimation, emergency services and planning of emergency action by the government. In fact, many countries show different degrees of attention on the technology of rapid estimation of MMI , and this technology has made significant progress in earthquake-prone countries. In recent years, numerical modeling of strong ground motion has been well developed with the advances of computation technology and earthquake science. The computational simulation of strong ground motion caused by earthquake faulting has become an efficient way to estimate the regional MMI distribution soon after earthquake. In China, due to the lack of strong motion observation in network sparse or even completely missing areas, the development of strong ground motion simulation method has become an important means of quantitative estimation of strong motion intensity. In many of the simulation models, stochastic finite fault model is preferred to rapid MMI estimating for its time-effectiveness and accuracy. In finite fault model, a large fault is divided into N subfaults, and each subfault is considered as a small point source. The ground motions contributed by each subfault are calculated by the stochastic point source method which is developed by Boore, and then summed at the observation point to obtain the ground motion from the entire fault with a proper time delay. Further, Motazedian and Atkinson proposed the concept of Dynamic Corner Frequency, with the new approach, the total radiated energy from the fault and the total seismic moment are conserved independent of subfault size over a wide range of subfault sizes. In current study, the program EXSIM developed by Motazedian and Atkinson has been modified for local or regional computations of strong motion parameters such as PGA, PGV and PGD, which are essential for MMI estimating. To make the results more reasonable, we consider the impact of V30 for the ground shaking intensity, and the results of the comparisons between the simulated and observed MMI for the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, the 2008 Mw 7.9Wenchuan earthquake and the 1976 Mw 7.6Tangshan earthquake is fairly well. Take Parkfield earthquake as example, the simulative result reflect the directivity effect and the influence of the shallow velocity structure well. On the other hand, the simulative data is in good agreement with the network data and NGA (Next Generation Attenuation). The consumed time depends on the number of the subfaults and the number of the grid point. For the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, the grid size we calculated is 2.5° × 2.5°, the grid space is 0.025°, and the total time consumed is about 1.3hours. For the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, the grid size calculated is 10° × 10°, the grid space is 0.05°, the total number of grid point is more than 40,000, and the total time consumed is about 7.5 hours. For t the 1976 Mw 7.6 Tangshan earthquake, the grid size we calculated is 4° × 6°, the grid space is 0.05°, and the total time consumed is about 2.1 hours. The CPU we used is 3.40GHz, and such computational time could further reduce by using GPU computing technique and other parallel computing technique. This is also our next focus.

Role of microstructure and thermal pressurization on the energy budget of an earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rattez, H.; Stefanou, I.; Sulem, J.

2017-12-01

The common understanding for earthquakes mechanics is that they occur by sudden slippage along a pre-existing fault (Brace and Byerlee, 1966). They are, thus, considered as frictional instabilities and can be explained by a simple spring-slider model. In this model, the stability of the block is determined by the difference between the stiffness of the spring, proxy for the elastic properties of the surrounding rock mass, and the rate of decrease of the frictional resisting force along with sliding. Therefore, it is primordial to correctly capture the softening behavior of the fault. Exhumed samples and outcrops show the presence of a principal slip zone (PSZ) inside the gouge that accommodates most of the slip in the fault. The localization process is associated with a strong weakening of the fault zone. In this study, the gouge is modelled as a saturated infinite sheared layer under thermo-hydro-mechanical couplings with Cosserat continuum. The nonlinear system of equations is integrated numerically using a Finite Element Code to study the softening regime. The use of Cosserat enables to regularizes the problem of localization and obtain a shear band thickness, and thus a softening behavior, that depends only on the constitutive parameters of the model. Cosserat continuum is also particularly interesting as it can explicitly take into account for the grain size of the fault gouge, which is an information accessible from exhumed samples (Sulem et al., 2011). From these simulations, we can estimate the evolution of fracture energy with slip and investigate the influence of the size of the microstructure or the thermal pressurization coefficient on its value. The results are compared with seismological and laboratory estimates of fracture energy under coseismic slip conditions (Viesca and Garagash, 2015).

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

Modelling earthquake ruptures with dynamic off-fault damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, Kurama; Bhat, Harsha S.; Klinger, Yann; Rougier, Esteban

2017-04-01

Earthquake rupture modelling has been developed for producing scenario earthquakes. This includes understanding the source mechanisms and estimating far-field ground motion with given a priori constraints like fault geometry, constitutive law of the medium and friction law operating on the fault. It is necessary to consider all of the above complexities of a fault systems to conduct realistic earthquake rupture modelling. In addition to the complexity of the fault geometry in nature, coseismic off-fault damage, which is observed by a variety of geological and seismological methods, plays a considerable role on the resultant ground motion and its spectrum compared to a model with simple planer fault surrounded by purely elastic media. Ideally all of these complexities should be considered in earthquake modelling. State of the art techniques developed so far, however, cannot treat all of them simultaneously due to a variety of computational restrictions. Therefore, we adopt the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which can effectively deal with pre-existing complex fault geometry such as fault branches and kinks and can describe coseismic off-fault damage generated during the dynamic rupture. The advantage of FDEM is that it can handle a wide range of length scales, from metric to kilometric scale, corresponding to the off-fault damage and complex fault geometry respectively. We used the FDEM-based software tool called HOSSedu (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite - Educational Version) for the earthquake rupture modelling, which was developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We firstly conducted the cross-validation of this new methodology against other conventional numerical schemes such as the finite difference method (FDM), the spectral element method (SEM) and the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), to evaluate the accuracy with various element sizes and artificial viscous damping values. We demonstrate the capability of the FDEM tool for modelling earthquake ruptures. We then modelled earthquake ruptures allowing for coseismic off-fault damage with appropriate fracture nucleation and growth criteria. We studied the effect of different conditions such as rupture speed (sub-Rayleigh or supershear), the orientation of the initial maximum principal stress with respect to the fault and the magnitude of the initial stress (to mimic depth). The comparison between the sub-Rayleigh and supershear case shows that the coseismic off-fault damage is enhanced in the supershear case when compared with the sub-Rayleigh case. The orientation of the maximum principal stress also has significant difference such that the dynamic off-fault cracking is more likely to occur on the extensional side of the fault for high principal stress orientation. It is found that the coseismic off-fault damage reduces the rupture speed due to the dissipation of the energy by dynamic off-fault cracking generated in the vicinity of the rupture front. In terms of the ground motion amplitude spectra it is shown that the high-frequency radiation is enhanced by the coseismic off-fault damage though it is quickly attenuated. This is caused by the intricate superposition of the radiation generated by the off-fault damage and the perturbation of the rupture speed on the main fault.

A general law of fault wear and its implication to gouge zone evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boneh, Yuval; Reches, Ze'ev

2017-04-01

Fault wear and gouge production are universal components of frictional sliding. Wear models commonly consider fault roughness, normal stress and rock strength, but ignore the effects of gouge presence and slip-velocity. In contrast, our experimental observations indicate that wear continues while gouge layer is fully developed, and that wear-rates vary by orders-of-magnitude during slip along experimental faults made of carbonites, sandstones and granites (Boneh et al., 2013, 2014). We derive here a new universal law for fault wear by incorporating the gouge layer and slip-velocity. Slip between two rock-blocks undergoes a transition from a 'two-body' mode, during which the blocks interact at surface roughness contacts, to 'three-body' mode, during which a gouge layer separates the two blocks. Our wear model considers 'effective roughness' as the mechanism for failure at resisting, interacting sites that control the global wear. The effective roughness is comprised of a time dependent, dynamic asperities which are different in population and scale from original surfaces asperities. The model assumes that the intensity of this failure is proportional to the mechanical impulse, which is the integrated force over loading time at the interacting sites. We use this concept to calculate the wear-rate as function of the impulse-density, which is the ratio [shear-stress/slip-velocity], during fault slip. The compilation of experimental wear-rates in a large range of slip-velocities (10 μm/s - 1 m/s) and normal stresses (0.2 - 200 MPa) reveal very good agreement with the model predictions. The model provides the first explanation why fault slip at seismic velocity, e.g., 1 m/s, generates significantly less wear and gouge than fault slip at creeping velocity. Thus, the model provides a tool to use the gouge thickness of fault-zones for estimation of paleo-velocity. Boneh, Y., Sagy, A., Reches, Z., 2013. Frictional strength and wear-rate of carbonate faults during high-velocity, steady-state sliding. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 381, 127-137. Boneh, Y., Chang, J.C., Lockner, D.A., Reches, Z., 2014. Evolution of Wear and Friction Along Experimental Faults. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1-17.

Large-Scale Multiphase Flow Modeling of Hydrocarbon Migration and Fluid Sequestration in Faulted Cenozoic Sedimentary Basins, Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, B.; Garven, G.; Boles, J. R.

2011-12-01

Major fault systems play a first-order role in controlling fluid migration in the Earth's crust, and also in the genesis/preservation of hydrocarbon reservoirs in young sedimentary basins undergoing deformation, and therefore understanding the geohydrology of faults is essential for the successful exploration of energy resources. For actively deforming systems like the Santa Barbara Basin and Los Angeles Basin, we have found it useful to develop computational geohydrologic models to study the various coupled and nonlinear processes affecting multiphase fluid migration, including relative permeability, anisotropy, heterogeneity, capillarity, pore pressure, and phase saturation that affect hydrocarbon mobility within fault systems and to search the possible hydrogeologic conditions that enable the natural sequestration of prolific hydrocarbon reservoirs in these young basins. Subsurface geology, reservoir data (fluid pressure-temperature-chemistry), structural reconstructions, and seismic profiles provide important constraints for model geometry and parameter testing, and provide critical insight on how large-scale faults and aquifer networks influence the distribution and the hydrodynamics of liquid and gas-phase hydrocarbon migration. For example, pore pressure changes at a methane seepage site on the seafloor have been carefully analyzed to estimate large-scale fault permeability, which helps to constrain basin-scale natural gas migration models for the Santa Barbara Basin. We have developed our own 2-D multiphase finite element/finite IMPES numerical model, and successfully modeled hydrocarbon gas/liquid movement for intensely faulted and heterogeneous basin profiles of the Los Angeles Basin. Our simulations suggest that hydrocarbon reservoirs that are today aligned with the Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone were formed by massive hydrocarbon flows from deeply buried source beds in the central synclinal region during post-Miocene time. Fault permeability, capillarity forces between the fault and juxtaposition of aquifers/aquitards, source oil saturation, and rate of generation control the efficiency of a petroleum trap and carbon sequestration. This research is focused on natural processes in real geologic systems, but our results will also contribute to an understanding of the subsurface behavior of injected anthropogenic greenhouse gases, especially when targeted storage sites may be influenced by regional faults, which are ubiquitous in the Earth's crust.

Online Fault Detection of Permanent Magnet Demagnetization for IPMSMs by Nonsingular Fast Terminal-Sliding-Mode Observer

PubMed Central

Zhao, Kai-Hui; Chen, Te-Fang; Zhang, Chang-Fan; He, Jing; Huang, Gang

2014-01-01

To prevent irreversible demagnetization of a permanent magnet (PM) for interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSMs) by flux-weakening control, a robust PM flux-linkage nonsingular fast terminal-sliding-mode observer (NFTSMO) is proposed to detect demagnetization faults. First, the IPMSM mathematical model of demagnetization is presented. Second, the construction of the NFTSMO to estimate PM demagnetization faults in IPMSM is described, and a proof of observer stability is given. The fault decision criteria and fault-processing method are also presented. Finally, the proposed scheme was simulated using MATLAB/Simulink and implemented on the RT-LAB platform. A number of robustness tests have been carried out. The scheme shows good performance in spite of speed fluctuations, torque ripples and the uncertainties of stator resistance. PMID:25490582

Online fault detection of permanent magnet demagnetization for IPMSMs by nonsingular fast terminal-sliding-mode observer.

PubMed

Zhao, Kai-Hui; Chen, Te-Fang; Zhang, Chang-Fan; He, Jing; Huang, Gang

2014-12-05

To prevent irreversible demagnetization of a permanent magnet (PM) for interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSMs) by flux-weakening control, a robust PM flux-linkage nonsingular fast terminal-sliding-mode observer (NFTSMO) is proposed to detect demagnetization faults. First, the IPMSM mathematical model of demagnetization is presented. Second, the construction of the NFTSMO to estimate PM demagnetization faults in IPMSM is described, and a proof of observer stability is given. The fault decision criteria and fault-processing method are also presented. Finally, the proposed scheme was simulated using MATLAB/Simulink and implemented on the RT-LAB platform. A number of robustness tests have been carried out. The scheme shows good performance in spite of speed fluctuations, torque ripples and the uncertainties of stator resistance.

Long-period spectral features of the Sumatra-Andaman 2004 earthquake rupture process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clévédé, E.; Bukchin, B.; Favreau, P.; Mostinskiy, A.; Aoudia, A.; Panza, G. F.

2012-12-01

The goal of this study is to investigate the spatial variability of the seismic radiation spectral content of the Sumatra-Andaman 2004 earthquake. We determine the integral estimates of source geometry, duration and rupture propagation given by the stress glut moments of total degree 2 of different source models. These models are constructed from a single or a joint use of different observations including seismology, geodesy, altimetry and tide gauge data. The comparative analysis shows coherency among the different models and no strong contradictions are found between the integral estimates of geodetic and altimetric models, and those retrieved from very long period seismic records (up to 2000-3000 s). The comparison between these results and the integral estimates derived from observed surface wave spectra in period band from 500 to 650 s suggests that the northern part of the fault (to the north of 8°N near Nicobar Islands) did not radiate long period seismic waves, that is, period shorter than 650 s at least. This conclusion is consistent with the existing composite short and long rise time tsunami model: with short rise time of slip in the southern part of the fault and very long rise time of slip at the northern part. This complex space-time slip evolution can be reproduced by a simple dynamic model of the rupture assuming a crude phenomenological mechanical behaviour of the rupture interface at the fault scales combining an effective slip-controlled exponential weakening effect, related to possible friction and damage breakdown processes of the fault zone, and an effective linear viscous strengthening effect, related to possible interface lubrication processes. While the rupture front speed remains unperturbed with initial short slip duration, a slow creep wave propagates behind the rupture front in the case of viscous effects accounting for the long slip duration and the radiation characteristics in the northern segment.

Earthquake Potential Models for China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.

2002-12-01

We present three earthquake potential estimates for magnitude 5.4 and larger earthquakes for China. The potential is expressed as the rate density (probability per unit area, magnitude and time). The three methods employ smoothed seismicity-, geologic slip rate-, and geodetic strain rate data. We tested all three estimates, and the published Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) model, against earthquake data. We constructed a special earthquake catalog which combines previous catalogs covering different times. We used the special catalog to construct our smoothed seismicity model and to evaluate all models retrospectively. All our models employ a modified Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with three parameters: a multiplicative ``a-value," the slope or ``b-value," and a ``corner magnitude" marking a strong decrease of earthquake rate with magnitude. We assumed the b-value to be constant for the whole study area and estimated the other parameters from regional or local geophysical data. The smoothed seismicity method assumes that the rate density is proportional to the magnitude of past earthquakes and approximately as the reciprocal of the epicentral distance out to a few hundred kilometers. We derived the upper magnitude limit from the special catalog and estimated local a-values from smoothed seismicity. Earthquakes since January 1, 2000 are quite compatible with the model. For the geologic forecast we adopted the seismic source zones (based on geological, geodetic and seismicity data) of the GSHAP model. For each zone, we estimated a corner magnitude by applying the Wells and Coppersmith [1994] relationship to the longest fault in the zone, and we determined the a-value from fault slip rates and an assumed locking depth. The geological model fits the earthquake data better than the GSHAP model. We also applied the Wells and Coppersmith relationship to individual faults, but the results conflicted with the earthquake record. For our geodetic model we derived the uniform upper magnitude limit from the special catalog and assumed local a-values proportional to maximum horizontal strain rate. In prospective tests the geodetic model agrees well with earthquake occurrence. The smoothed seismicity model performs best of the four models.

Parameter Transient Behavior Analysis on Fault Tolerant Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine (Technical Monitor); Shin, Jong-Yeob

2003-01-01

In a fault tolerant control (FTC) system, a parameter varying FTC law is reconfigured based on fault parameters estimated by fault detection and isolation (FDI) modules. FDI modules require some time to detect fault occurrences in aero-vehicle dynamics. This paper illustrates analysis of a FTC system based on estimated fault parameter transient behavior which may include false fault detections during a short time interval. Using Lyapunov function analysis, the upper bound of an induced-L2 norm of the FTC system performance is calculated as a function of a fault detection time and the exponential decay rate of the Lyapunov function.

Assessment of the geothermal potential of fault zones in Germany by numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuder, Jörg

2017-04-01

Fault zones with significantly better permeabilities than host rocks can act as natural migration paths for ascending fluids that are able to transport thermal energy from deep geological formations. Under these circumstances, fault zones are interesting for geothermal utilization especially those in at least 7 km depth (Jung et al. 2002, Paschen et al. 2003). One objective of the joint project "The role of deep rooting fault zones for geothermal energy utilization" supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy was the evaluation of the geothermal potential of fault zones in Germany by means of numerical modelling with COMSOL. To achieve this goal a method was developed to estimate the potential of regional generalized fault zones in a simple but yet sophisticated way. The main problem for the development of a numerical model is the lack of geological and hydrological data. To address this problem the geothermal potential of a cube with 1 km side length including a 20 meter broad, 1000 m high and 1000 m long fault zone was calculated as a unified model with changing parameter sets. The properties of the surrounding host rock and the fault zone are assumed homogenous. The numerical models were calculated with a broad variety of fluid flow, rock and fluid property parameters for the depths of 3000-4000 m, 4000-5000 m, 5000-6000 m and 6000-7000 m. The fluid parameters are depending on temperature, salt load and initial pressure. The porosity and permeability values are provided by the database of the geothermal information system (GeotIS). The results are summarized in a table of values of geothermal energy modelled with different parameter sets and depths. The geothermal potential of fault zones in Germany was then calculated on the basis of this table and information of the geothermal atlas of Germany (2016).

Exploring uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard estimates for Quito

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beauval, Celine; Yepes, Hugo; Audin, Laurence; Alvarado, Alexandra; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu

2016-04-01

In the present study, probabilistic seismic hazard estimates at 475 years return period for Quito, capital city of Ecuador, show that the crustal host zone is the only source zone that determines the city's hazard levels for such return period. Therefore, the emphasis is put on identifying the uncertainties characterizing the host zone, i.e. uncertainties in the recurrence of earthquakes expected in the zone and uncertainties on the ground motions that these earthquakes may produce. As the number of local strong-ground motions is still scant, ground-motion prediction equations are imported from other regions. Exploring recurrence models for the host zone based on different observations and assumptions, and including three GMPE candidates (Akkar and Bommer 2010, Zhao et al. 2006, Boore and Atkinson 2008), we obtain a significant variability on the estimated acceleration at 475 years (site coordinates: -78.51 in longitude and -0.2 in latitude, VS30 760 m/s): 1) Considering historical earthquake catalogs, and relying on frequency-magnitude distributions where rates for magnitudes 6-7 are extrapolated from statistics of magnitudes 4.5-6.0 mostly in the 20th century, the acceleration at the PGA varies between 0.28g and 0.55g with a mean value around 0.4g. The results show that both the uncertainties in the GMPE choice and in the seismicity model are responsible for this variability. 2) Considering slip rates inferred form geodetic measurements across the Quito fault system, and assuming that most of the deformation occurs seismically (conservative hypothesis), leads to a much greater range of accelerations, 0.43 to 0.73g for the PGA (with a mean of 0.55g). 3) Considering slip rates inferred from geodetic measurements, and assuming that 50% only of the deformation is released in earthquakes (partially locked fault, model based on 15 years of GPS data), leads to a range of accelerations 0.32g to 0.58g for the PGA, with a mean of 0.42g. These accelerations are in agreement with the catalog-based hazard estimates. 4) Restricting the occurrence of magnitudes 6 to 7 to the Quito fault (a simplified geometry), applying the three initial GMPEs (Akkar and Bommer 2010, Zhao et al. 2006, Boore and Atkinson 2008) or GMPEs including a hanging-wall coefficient (Abrahamson and Silva 2008, Chiou and Youngs 2008), increases the hazard by 20 to 40% at sites located above the fault plane (range 0.42g to 0.68g at the considered site). Strong hypothesis are required to define a simple fault plane and to define the recurrence of earthquakes on this fault plane, therefore these results must be taken with great caution. However they demonstrate that taking into account faults in hazard calculations can have a major impact. Modeling the recurrence based on the past earthquake catalog, and relying on an areal source zone model, gives a mean value around 0.4g for the PGA at 475 years in Quito. This mean value is for a site on rock and site effects need to be further taken into account. Nonetheless, based on various exercises, we show that if taking into account the fault itself in the hazard calculations, much higher values can be obtained for sites located above the fault.

Fractional-order active fault-tolerant force-position controller design for the legged robots using saturated actuator with unknown bias and gain degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, Yousef; Majd, Vahid Johari; Ehsani-Seresht, Abbas

2018-05-01

In this paper, a novel fault accommodation strategy is proposed for the legged robots subject to the actuator faults including actuation bias and effective gain degradation as well as the actuator saturation. First, the combined dynamics of two coupled subsystems consisting of the dynamics of the legs subsystem and the body subsystem are developed. Then, the interaction of the robot with the environment is formulated as the contact force optimization problem with equality and inequality constraints. The desired force is obtained by a dynamic model. A robust super twisting fault estimator is proposed to precisely estimate the defective torque amplitude of the faulty actuator in finite time. Defining a novel fractional sliding surface, a fractional nonsingular terminal sliding mode control law is developed. Moreover, by introducing a suitable auxiliary system and using its state vector in the designed controller, the proposed fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme guarantees the finite-time stability of the closed-loop control system. The robustness and finite-time convergence of the proposed control law is established using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, numerical simulations are performed on a quadruped robot to demonstrate the stable walking of the robot with and without actuator faults, and actuator saturation constraints, and the results are compared to results with an integer order fault-tolerant controller.

Detecting and isolating abrupt changes in linear switching systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazari, Sohail; Zhao, Qing; Huang, Biao

2015-04-01

In this paper, a novel fault detection and isolation (FDI) method for switching linear systems is developed. All input and output signals are assumed to be corrupted with measurement noises. In the proposed method, a 'lifted' linear model named as stochastic hybrid decoupling polynomial (SHDP) is introduced. The SHDP model governs the dynamics of the switching linear system with all different modes, and is independent of the switching sequence. The error-in-variable (EIV) representation of SHDP is derived, and is used for the fault residual generation and isolation following the well-adopted local approach. The proposed FDI method can detect and isolate the fault-induced abrupt changes in switching models' parameters without estimating the switching modes. Furthermore, in this paper, the analytical expressions of the gradient vector and Hessian matrix are obtained based on the EIV SHDP formulation, so that they can be used to implement the online fault detection scheme. The performance of the proposed method is then illustrated by simulation examples.

GPS-derived coupling estimates for the Central America subduction zone and volcanic arc faults: El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correa-Mora, F.; DeMets, C.; Alvarado, D.; Turner, H. L.; Mattioli, G.; Hernandez, D.; Pullinger, C.; Rodriguez, M.; Tenorio, C.

2009-12-01

We invert GPS velocities from 32 sites in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua to estimate the rate of long-term forearc motion and distributions of interseismic coupling across the Middle America subduction zone offshore from these countries and faults in the Salvadoran and Nicaraguan volcanic arcs. A 3-D finite element model is used to approximate the geometries of the subduction interface and strike-slip faults in the volcanic arc and determine the elastic response to coupling across these faults. The GPS velocities are best fit by a model in which the forearc moves 14-16 mmyr-1 and has coupling of 85-100 per cent across faults in the volcanic arc, in agreement with the high level of historic and recent earthquake activity in the volcanic arc. Our velocity inversion indicates that coupling across the potentially seismogenic areas of the subduction interface is remarkably weak, averaging no more than 3 per cent of the plate convergence rate and with only two poorly resolved patches where coupling might be higher along the 550-km-long segment we modelled. Our geodetic evidence for weak subduction coupling disagrees with a seismically derived coupling estimate of 60 +/- 10 per cent from a published analysis of earthquake damage back to 1690, but agrees with three other seismologic studies that infer weak subduction coupling from 20th century earthquakes. Most large historical earthquakes offshore from El Salvador and western Nicaragua may therefore have been intraslab normal faulting events similar to the Mw 7.3 1982 and Mw 7.7 2001 earthquakes offshore from El Salvador. Alternatively, the degree of coupling might vary with time. The evidence for weak coupling indirectly supports a recently published hypothesis that much of the Middle American forearc is escaping to the west or northwest away from the Cocos Ridge collision zone in Costa Rica. Such a hypothesis is particularly attractive for El Salvador, where there is little or no convergence obliquity to drive the observed trench-parallel forearc motion.

Estimation of internal friction angle of subduction zone in northeast of Japan by using seismic focal mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakawa, A.; Sato, K.; Otsubo, M.

2017-12-01

Physical properties, such as friction angle of the material, is important to understand the interplate earthquake of a subduction zone. Coulomb wedge model (Davis et al., 1983, JGR) is successfully revealed the relationship between a geometry of an accretionary wedge in a subduction zone and the physical properties of the material composing the accretionary wedge (e.g. Dahlen, 1984, JGR). An internal friction angle of the wedge and the frictional strength of the plate boundary fault control the wedge angle according to the Coulomb wedge model. However, the internal friction angle of the wedge and the frictional strength of the plate boundary fault are hard to estimate. Many previous works assumed the internal friction angle of the wedge on the basis of the laboratory experiments. Then, the frictional strength of the plate boundary fault, which is usually most interested, were evaluated from the observed wedge angle and the assumed internal friction angle of the wedge. Consequently, we should be careful of the selection of the internal friction angle of the wedge, otherwise, the uncertain an inappropriate internal friction angle may mislead the frictional strength of the plate boundary fault. In this study, we employed the newly developed technique to evaluate the internal friction angle of the wedge from the earthquake focal mechanisms occurred in the wedge along Japan Trench, northeast Japan. We used 650 earthquake mechanisms determined by NIED, Japan for the stress and friction coefficient inversion. The stress and friction coefficient inversion method is modified to handle the earthquake focal mechanisms from a computerized method to estimate the friction coefficient from the orientation distribution of faults (Sato, 2016, JSG). Finally, we obtained 25 degrees of internal friction angle of the wedge from the inversion. This value of friction angle is lower than usually assumed internal friction angle (30 degrees) (Byerlee, 1978, PAGEOPH). This lower internal friction angle leads to lower frictional strength of plate boundary fault ( 0.35) according to the Coulomb wedge model. These constrained physical parameters can contribute to understanding the interplate earthquake at each subduction zones.

Slip Potential of Faults in the Fort Worth Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennings, P.; Osmond, J.; Lund Snee, J. E.; Zoback, M. D.

2017-12-01

Similar to other areas of the southcentral United States, the Fort Worth Basin of NE Texas has experienced an increase in the rate of seismicity which has been attributed to injection of waste water in deep saline aquifers. To assess the hazard of induced seismicity in the basin we have integrated new data on location and character of previously known and unknown faults, stress state, and pore pressure to produce an assessment of fault slip potential which can be used to investigate prior and ongoing earthquake sequences and for development of mitigation strategies. We have assembled data on faults in the basin from published sources, 2D and 3D seismic data, and interpretations provided from petroleum operators to yield a 3D fault model with 292 faults ranging in strike-length from 116 to 0.4 km. The faults have mostly normal geometries, all cut the disposal intervals, and most are presumed to cut into the underlying crystalline and metamorphic basement. Analysis of outcrops along the SW flank of the basin assist with geometric characterization of the fault systems. The interpretation of stress state comes from integration of wellbore image and sonic data, reservoir stimulation data, and earthquake focal mechanisms. The orientation of SHmax is generally uniform across the basin but stress style changes from being more strike-slip in the NE part of the basin to normal faulting in the SW part. Estimates of pore pressure come from a basin-scale hydrogeologic model as history-matched to injection test data. With these deterministic inputs and appropriate ranges of uncertainty we assess the conditional probability that faults in our 3D model might slip via Mohr-Coulomb reactivation in response to increases in injected-related pore pressure. A key component of the analysis is constraining the uncertainties associated with each of the principal parameters. Many of the faults in the model are interpreted to be critically-stressed within reasonable ranges of uncertainty.

Shallow subsurface imaging of the Piano di Pezza active normal fault (central Italy) by high-resolution refraction and electrical resistivity tomography coupled with time-domain electromagnetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villani, Fabio; Tulliani, Valerio; Sapia, Vincenzo; Fierro, Elisa; Civico, Riccardo; Pantosti, Daniela

2015-12-01

The Piano di Pezza fault is the central section of the 35 km long L'Aquila-Celano active normal fault-system in the central Apennines of Italy. Although palaeoseismic data document high Holocene vertical slip rates (˜1 mm yr-1) and a remarkable seismogenic potential of this fault, its subsurface setting and Pleistocene cumulative displacement are still poorly known. We investigated for the first time the shallow subsurface of a key section of the main Piano di Pezza fault splay by means of high-resolution seismic and electrical resistivity tomography coupled with time-domain electromagnetic soundings (TDEM). Our surveys cross a ˜5-m-high fault scarp that was generated by repeated surface-rupturing earthquakes displacing Holocene alluvial fans. We provide 2-D Vp and resistivity images, which show significant details of the fault structure and the geometry of the shallow basin infill material down to 50 m depth. Our data indicate that the upper fault termination has a sub-vertical attitude, in agreement with palaeoseismological trench evidence, whereas it dips ˜50° to the southwest in the deeper part. We recognize some low-velocity/low-resistivity regions in the fault hangingwall that we relate to packages of colluvial wedges derived from scarp degradation, which may represent the record of some Holocene palaeo-earthquakes. We estimate a ˜13-15 m throw of this fault splay since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (˜18 ka), leading to a 0.7-0.8 mm yr-1 throw rate that is quite in accordance with previous palaeoseismic estimation of Holocene vertical slip rates. The 1-D resistivity models from TDEM soundings collected along the trace of the electrical profile significantly match with 2-D resistivity images. Moreover, they indicate that in the fault hangingwall, ˜200 m away from the surface fault trace, the pre-Quaternary carbonate basement is at ˜90-100 m depth. We therefore provide a minimal ˜150-160 m estimate of the cumulative throw of the Piano di Pezza fault system in the investigated section. We further hypothesize that the onset of the Piano di Pezza fault activity may date back to the Middle Pleistocene (˜0.5 Ma), so this is a quite young active normal fault if compared to other mature normal fault systems active since 2-3 Ma in this portion of the central Apennines.

Site-to-Source Finite Fault Distance Probability Distribution in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and the Relationship Between Minimum Distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, R.; Gutierrez, E.; Carciumaru, D. D.; Huesca-Perez, E.

2017-12-01

We present a method to compute the conditional and no-conditional probability density function (PDF) of the finite fault distance distribution (FFDD). Two cases are described: lines and areas. The case of lines has a simple analytical solution while, in the case of areas, the geometrical probability of a fault based on the strike, dip, and fault segment vertices is obtained using the projection of spheres in a piecewise rectangular surface. The cumulative distribution is computed by measuring the projection of a sphere of radius r in an effective area using an algorithm that estimates the area of a circle within a rectangle. In addition, we introduce the finite fault distance metrics. This distance is the distance where the maximum stress release occurs within the fault plane and generates a peak ground motion. Later, we can apply the appropriate ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) for PSHA. The conditional probability of distance given magnitude is also presented using different scaling laws. A simple model of constant distribution of the centroid at the geometrical mean is discussed, in this model hazard is reduced at the edges because the effective size is reduced. Nowadays there is a trend of using extended source distances in PSHA, however it is not possible to separate the fault geometry from the GMPE. With this new approach, it is possible to add fault rupture models separating geometrical and propagation effects.

Practical Issues in Implementing Software Reliability Measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nikora, Allen P.; Schneidewind, Norman F.; Everett, William W.; Munson, John C.; Vouk, Mladen A.; Musa, John D.

1999-01-01

Many ways of estimating software systems' reliability, or reliability-related quantities, have been developed over the past several years. Of particular interest are methods that can be used to estimate a software system's fault content prior to test, or to discriminate between components that are fault-prone and those that are not. The results of these methods can be used to: 1) More accurately focus scarce fault identification resources on those portions of a software system most in need of it. 2) Estimate and forecast the risk of exposure to residual faults in a software system during operation, and develop risk and safety criteria to guide the release of a software system to fielded use. 3) Estimate the efficiency of test suites in detecting residual faults. 4) Estimate the stability of the software maintenance process.

Incorporating geologic information into hydraulic tomography: A general framework based on geostatistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, Yuanyuan; Yeh, Tian-Chyi J.; Illman, Walter A.; Onoe, Hironori; Mok, Chin Man W.; Wen, Jet-Chau; Huang, Shao-Yang; Wang, Wenke

2017-04-01

Hydraulic tomography (HT) has become a mature aquifer test technology over the last two decades. It collects nonredundant information of aquifer heterogeneity by sequentially stressing the aquifer at different wells and collecting aquifer responses at other wells during each stress. The collected information is then interpreted by inverse models. Among these models, the geostatistical approaches, built upon the Bayesian framework, first conceptualize hydraulic properties to be estimated as random fields, which are characterized by means and covariance functions. They then use the spatial statistics as prior information with the aquifer response data to estimate the spatial distribution of the hydraulic properties at a site. Since the spatial statistics describe the generic spatial structures of the geologic media at the site rather than site-specific ones (e.g., known spatial distributions of facies, faults, or paleochannels), the estimates are often not optimal. To improve the estimates, we introduce a general statistical framework, which allows the inclusion of site-specific spatial patterns of geologic features. Subsequently, we test this approach with synthetic numerical experiments. Results show that this approach, using conditional mean and covariance that reflect site-specific large-scale geologic features, indeed improves the HT estimates. Afterward, this approach is applied to HT surveys at a kilometer-scale-fractured granite field site with a distinct fault zone. We find that by including fault information from outcrops and boreholes for HT analysis, the estimated hydraulic properties are improved. The improved estimates subsequently lead to better prediction of flow during a different pumping test at the site.

Do mesoscale faults in a young fold belt indicate regional or local stress?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokado, Akihiro; Yamaji, Atsushi; Sato, Katsushi

2017-04-01

The result of paleostress analyses of mesoscale faults is usually thought of as evidence of a regional stress. On the other hand, the recent advancement of the trishear modeling has enabled us to predict the deformation field around fault-propagation folds without the difficulty of assuming paleo mechanical properties of rocks and sediments. We combined the analysis of observed mesoscale faults and the trishear modeling to understand the significance of regional and local stresses for the formation of mesoscale faults. To this end, we conducted the 2D trishear inverse modeling with a curved thrust fault to predict the subsurface structure and strain field of an anticline, which has a more or less horizontal axis and shows a map-scale plane strain perpendicular to the axis, in the active fold belt of Niigata region, central Japan. The anticline is thought to have been formed by fault-propagation folding under WNW-ESE regional compression. Based on the attitudes of strata and the positions of key tephra beds in Lower Pleistocene soft sediments cropping out at the surface, we obtained (1) a fault-propagation fold with the fault tip at a depth of ca. 4 km as the optimal subsurface structure, and (2) the temporal variation of deformation field during the folding. We assumed that mesoscale faults were activated along the direction of maximum shear strain on the faults to test whether the fault-slip data collected at the surface were consistent with the deformation in some stage(s) of folding. The Wallace-Bott hypothesis was used to estimate the consistence of faults with the regional stress. As a result, the folding and the regional stress explained 27 and 33 of 45 observed faults, respectively, with the 11 faults being consistent with the both. Both the folding and regional one were inconsistent with the remaining 17 faults, which could be explained by transfer faulting and/or the gravitational spreading of the growing anticline. The lesson we learnt from this work was that we should pay attention not only to regional but also to local stresses to interpret the results of paleostress analysis in the shallow levels of young orogenic belts.

Preliminary potential-field constraints on the geometry of the San Fernando basin, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Griscom, Andrew; Jachens, R.C.; Hildenbrand, T.G.

2000-01-01

Gravity and magnetic data provide new insights on the structural underpinnings of the San Fernando Basin region, which may be important to ground motion models. Gravity data indicate that a deep basin (>5 km) underlies the northern part of the San Fernando Valley; this deep basin is required to explain the lowest gravity values over the Mission Hills thrust fault. Gravity modeling, constrained by well data and density information, shows that the basin may reach a thickness of 8 km, coinciding with the upper termination of the 1994 Northridge earthquake mainshock rupture. The basin is deeper than previous estimates by 2 to 4 km; this estimate is the result of high densities for the gravels of the Pliocene-Pleisocene Saugus Formation. The geometry of the southern margin of the deep basin is not well-constrained by the gravity data, but may dip to the south. Recently acquired seismic data along the LARSE (Los Angeles Regional Seismic Experiment) II profile may provide constraints to determine the location and attitude of the basin edge. Gravity and aeromagnetic models across the eastern margin of the San Fernando Valley indicate that the Verdugo fault may dip to the southwest along its southern extent and therefore have a normal fault geometry whereas it clearly has a thrust fault geometry along its northern strand.

Multi-version software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1989-01-01

A number of experimental and theoretical issues associated with the practical use of multi-version software to provide run-time tolerance to software faults were investigated. A specialized tool was developed and evaluated for measuring testing coverage for a variety of metrics. The tool was used to collect information on the relationships between software faults and coverage provided by the testing process as measured by different metrics (including data flow metrics). Considerable correlation was found between coverage provided by some higher metrics and the elimination of faults in the code. Back-to-back testing was continued as an efficient mechanism for removal of un-correlated faults, and common-cause faults of variable span. Software reliability estimation methods was also continued based on non-random sampling, and the relationship between software reliability and code coverage provided through testing. New fault tolerance models were formulated. Simulation studies of the Acceptance Voting and Multi-stage Voting algorithms were finished and it was found that these two schemes for software fault tolerance are superior in many respects to some commonly used schemes. Particularly encouraging are the safety properties of the Acceptance testing scheme.

Common faults and their impacts for rooftop air conditioners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breuker, M.S.; Braun, J.E.

This paper identifies important faults and their performance impacts for rooftop air conditioners. The frequencies of occurrence and the relative costs of service for different faults were estimated through analysis of service records. Several of the important and difficult to diagnose refrigeration cycle faults were simulated in the laboratory. Also, the impacts on several performance indices were quantified through transient testing for a range of conditions and fault levels. The transient test results indicated that fault detection and diagnostics could be performed using methods that incorporate steady-state assumptions and models. Furthermore, the fault testing led to a set of genericmore » rules for the impacts of faults on measurements that could be used for fault diagnoses. The average impacts of the faults on cooling capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) were also evaluated. Based upon the results, all of the faults are significant at the levels introduced, and should be detected and diagnosed by an FDD system. The data set obtained during this work was very comprehensive, and was used to design and evaluate the performance of an FDD method that will be reported in a future paper.« less

A-Priori Rupture Models for Northern California Type-A Faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Field, Edward H.

2008-01-01

This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, ?a-priori? models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide. As a result, the modified segmented models discussed here only concern the San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults. Given the extensive level of effort given by the recent Bay-Area WGCEP-2002, our approach has been to adopt their final average models as our preferred a-prior models. We have modified the WGCEP-2002 models where necessary to match data that were not available or not used by that WGCEP and where the models needed by WGCEP-2007 for a uniform statewide model require different assumptions and/or logic-tree branch weights. In these cases we have made what are usually slight modifications to the WGCEP-2002 model. This Appendix presents the minor changes needed to accomodate updated information and model construction. We do not attempt to reproduce here the extensive documentation of data, model parameters and earthquake probablilities in the WG-2002 report.

Distributed and localized horizontal tectonic deformation as inferred from drainage network geometry and topology: A case study from Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goren, Liran; Castelltort, Sébastien; Klinger, Yann

2016-04-01

Partitioning of horizontal deformation between localized and distributed modes in regions of oblique tectonic convergence is, in many cases, hard to quantify. As a case study, we consider the Dead Sea Fault System that changes its orientation across Lebanon and forms a restraining bend. The oblique deformation along the Lebanese restraining bend is characterized by a complex suite of tectonic structures, among which, the Yammouneh fault, is believed to be the main strand that relays deformation from the southern section to the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault System. However, uncertainties regarding slip rates along the Yammouneh fault and strain partitioning in Lebanon still prevail. In the current work we use the geometry and topology of river basins together with numerical modeling to evaluate modes and rates of the horizontal deformation in Mount Lebanon that is associated with the Arabia-Sinai relative plate motion. We focus on river basins that drain Mount Lebanon to the Mediterranean and originate close to the Yammouneh fault. We quantify a systematic counterclockwise rotation of these basins and evaluate drainage area disequilibrium using an application of the χ mapping technique, which aims at estimating the degree of geometrical and topological disequilibrium in river networks. The analysis indicates a systematic spatial pattern whereby tributaries of the rotated basins appear to experience drainage area loss or gain with respect to channel length. A kinematic model that is informed by river basin geometry reveals that since the late Miocene, about a quarter of the relative plate motion parallel to the plate boundary has been distributed along a wide band of deformation to the west of the Yammouneh fault. Taken together with previous, shorter-term estimates, the model indicates little variation of slip rate along the Yammouneh fault since the late Miocene. Kinematic model results are compatible with late Miocene paleomagnetic rotations in western Mount Lebanon. A numerical landscape evolution experiment demonstrates the emergence of a similar χ pattern of drainage area disequilibrium in response to progressive distributed shear deformation of river basins with relatively minor drainage network reorganization.

Hidden Markov models and neural networks for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic

1994-01-01

Neural networks plus hidden Markov models (HMM) can provide excellent detection and false alarm rate performance in fault detection applications, as shown in this viewgraph presentation. Modified models allow for novelty detection. Key contributions of neural network models are: (1) excellent nonparametric discrimination capability; (2) a good estimator of posterior state probabilities, even in high dimensions, and thus can be embedded within overall probabilistic model (HMM); and (3) simple to implement compared to other nonparametric models. Neural network/HMM monitoring model is currently being integrated with the new Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna controller software and will be on-line monitoring a new DSN 34-m antenna (DSS-24) by July, 1994.

Basin geometry and cumulative offsets in the Eastern Transverse Ranges, southern California: Implications for transrotational deformation along the San Andreas fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Powell, R.E.

2009-01-01

The Eastern Transverse Ranges, adjacent to and southeast of the big left bend of the San Andreas fault, southern California, form a crustal block that has rotated clockwise in response to dextral shear within the San Andreas system. Previous studies have indicated a discrepancy between the measured magnitudes of left slip on through-going east-striking fault zones of the Eastern Transverse Ranges and those predicted by simple geometric models using paleomagnetically determined clockwise rotations of basalts distributed along the faults. To assess the magnitude and source of this discrepancy, we apply new gravity and magnetic data in combination with geologic data to better constrain cumulative fault offsets and to define basin structure for the block between the Pinto Mountain and Chiriaco fault zones. Estimates of offset from using the length of pull-apart basins developed within left-stepping strands of the sinistral faults are consistent with those derived by matching offset magnetic anomalies and bedrock patterns, indicating a cumulative offset of at most ???40 km. The upper limit of displacements constrained by the geophysical and geologic data overlaps with the lower limit of those predicted at the 95% confidence level by models of conservative slip located on margins of rigid rotating blocks and the clockwise rotation of the paleomagnetic vectors. Any discrepancy is likely resolved by internal deformation within the blocks, such as intense deformation adjacent to the San Andreas fault (that can account for the absence of basins there as predicted by rigid-block models) and linkage via subsidiary faults between the main faults. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Late Quaternary slip history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault in San Gorgonio Pass, southern California: The role of a subsidiary left-lateral fault in strand switching

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendrick, Katherine J.; Matti, Jonathan; Mahan, Shannon

2015-01-01

The fault history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault (SAF) in the San Gorgonio Pass region, along with the reconstructed geomorphology surrounding this fault strand, reveals the important role of the left-lateral Pinto Mountain fault in the regional fault strand switching. The Mill Creek strand has 7.1–8.7 km total slip. Following this displacement, the Pinto Mountain fault offset the Mill Creek strand 1–1.25 km, as SAF slip transferred to the San Bernardino, Banning, and Garnet Hill strands. An alluvial complex within the Mission Creek watershed can be linked to palinspastic reconstruction of drainage segments to constrain slip history of the Mill Creek strand. We investigated surface remnants through detailed geologic mapping, morphometric and stratigraphic analysis, geochronology, and pedogenic analysis. The degree of soil development constrains the duration of surface stability when correlated to other regional, independently dated pedons. This correlation indicates that the oldest surfaces are significantly older than 500 ka. Luminescence dates of 106 ka and 95 ka from (respectively) 5 and 4 m beneath a younger fan surface are consistent with age estimates based on soil-profile development. Offset of the Mill Creek strand by the Pinto Mountain fault suggests a short-term slip rate of ∼10–12.5 mm/yr for the Pinto Mountain fault, and a lower long-term slip rate. Uplift of the Yucaipa Ridge block during the period of Mill Creek strand activity is consistent with thermochronologic modeled uplift estimates.

Can compliant fault zones be used to measure absolute stresses in the upper crust?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hearn, E. H.; Fialko, Y.

2009-04-01

Geodetic and seismic observations reveal long-lived zones with reduced elastic moduli along active crustal faults. These fault zones localize strain from nearby earthquakes, consistent with the response of a compliant, elastic layer. Fault zone trapped wave studies documented a small reduction in P and S wave velocities along the Johnson Valley Fault caused by the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. This reduction presumably perturbed a permanent compliant structure associated with the fault. The inferred changes in the fault zone compliance may produce a measurable deformation in response to background (tectonic) stresses. This deformation should have the same sense as the background stress, rather than the coseismic stress change. Here we investigate how the observed deformation of compliant zones in the Mojave Desert can be used to constrain the fault zone structure and stresses in the upper crust. We find that gravitational contraction of the coseismically softened zones should cause centimeters of coseismic subsidence of both the compliant zones and the surrounding region, unless the compliant fault zones are shallow and narrow, or essentially incompressible. We prefer the latter interpretation because profiles of line of sight displacements across compliant zones cannot be fit by a narrow, shallow compliant zone. Strain of the Camp Rock and Pinto Mountain fault zones during the Hector Mine and Landers earthquakes suggests that background deviatoric stresses are broadly consistent with Mohr-Coulomb theory in the Mojave upper crust (with μ ≥ 0.7). Large uncertainties in Mojave compliant zone properties and geometry preclude more precise estimates of crustal stresses in this region. With improved imaging of the geometry and elastic properties of compliant zones, and with precise measurements of their strain in response to future earthquakes, the modeling approach we describe here may eventually provide robust estimates of absolute crustal stress.

Unravelling the Mysteries of Slip Histories, Validating Cosmogenic 36Cl Derived Slip Rates on Normal Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodall, H.; Gregory, L. C.; Wedmore, L.; Roberts, G.; Shanks, R. P.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Amey, R.; Hooper, A. J.

2017-12-01

The cosmogenic isotope chlorine-36 (36Cl) is increasingly used as a tool to investigate normal fault slip rates over the last 10-20 thousand years. These slip histories are being used to address complex questions, including investigating slip clustering and understanding local and large scale fault interaction. Measurements are time consuming and expensive, and as a result there has been little work done validating these 36Cl derived slip histories. This study aims to investigate if the results are repeatable and therefore reliable estimates of how normal faults have been moving in the past. Our approach is to test if slip histories derived from 36Cl are the same when measured at different points along the same fault. As normal fault planes are progressively exhumed from the surface they accumulate 36Cl. Modelling these 36Cl concentrations allows estimation of a slip history. In a previous study, samples were collected from four sites on the Magnola fault in the Italian Apennines. Remodelling of the 36Cl data using a Bayesian approach shows that the sites produced disparate slip histories, which we interpret as being due to variable site geomorphology. In this study, multiple sites have been sampled along the Campo Felice fault in the central Italian Apennines. Initial results show strong agreement between the sites we have processed so far and a previous study. This indicates that if sample sites are selected taking the geomorphology into account, then 36Cl derived slip histories will be highly similar when sampled at any point along the fault. Therefore our study suggests that 36Cl derived slip histories are a consistent record of fault activity in the past.

Probabilistic seismic hazard study based on active fault and finite element geodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastelic, Vanja; Carafa, Michele M. C.; Visini, Francesco

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that is exclusively based on active faults and geodynamic finite element input models whereas seismic catalogues were used only in a posterior comparison. We applied the developed model in the External Dinarides, a slow deforming thrust-and-fold belt at the contact between Adria and Eurasia.. is the Our method consists of establishing s two earthquake rupture forecast models: (i) a geological active fault input (GEO) model and, (ii) a finite element (FEM) model. The GEO model is based on active fault database that provides information on fault location and its geometric and kinematic parameters together with estimations on its slip rate. By default in this model all deformation is set to be released along the active faults. The FEM model is based on a numerical geodynamic model developed for the region of study. In this model the deformation is, besides along the active faults, released also in the volumetric continuum elements. From both models we calculated their corresponding activity rates, its earthquake rates and their final expected peak ground accelerations. We investigated both the source model and the earthquake model uncertainties by varying the main active fault and earthquake rate calculation parameters through constructing corresponding branches of the seismic hazard logic tree. Hazard maps and UHS curves have been produced for horizontal ground motion on bedrock conditions VS 30 ≥ 800 m/s), thereby not considering local site amplification effects. The hazard was computed over a 0.2° spaced grid considering 648 branches of the logic tree and the mean value of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level, while the 5th and 95th percentiles were also computed to investigate the model limits. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to control which of the input parameters influence the final hazard results in which measure. The results of such comparison evidence the deformation model and with their internal variability together with the choice of the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the most influencing parameter. Both of these parameters have significan affect on the hazard results. Thus having good knowledge of the existence of active faults and their geometric and activity characteristics is of key importance. We also show that PSHA models based exclusively on active faults and geodynamic inputs, which are thus not dependent on past earthquake occurrences, provide a valid method for seismic hazard calculation.

Sliding Mode Observer-Based Current Sensor Fault Reconstruction and Unknown Load Disturbance Estimation for PMSM Driven System

PubMed Central

Li, Xiangfei; Lin, Yuliang

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a new scheme of reconstructing current sensor faults and estimating unknown load disturbance for a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM)-driven system. First, the original PMSM system is transformed into two subsystems; the first subsystem has unknown system load disturbances, which are unrelated to sensor faults, and the second subsystem has sensor faults, but is free from unknown load disturbances. Introducing a new state variable, the augmented subsystem that has sensor faults can be transformed into having actuator faults. Second, two sliding mode observers (SMOs) are designed: the unknown load disturbance is estimated by the first SMO in the subsystem, which has unknown load disturbance, and the sensor faults can be reconstructed using the second SMO in the augmented subsystem, which has sensor faults. The gains of the proposed SMOs and their stability analysis are developed via the solution of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme was verified by simulations and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can reconstruct current sensor faults and estimate unknown load disturbance for the PMSM-driven system. PMID:29211017

Added-value joint source modelling of seismic and geodetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Walter, Thomas R.; Krueger, Frank

2013-04-01

In tectonically active regions earthquake source studies strongly support the analysis of the current faulting processes as they reveal the location and geometry of active faults, the average slip released or more. For source modelling of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes often a combination of geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and seismic data is used. A truly joint use of these data, however, usually takes place only on a higher modelling level, where some of the first-order characteristics (time, centroid location, fault orientation, moment) have been fixed already. These required basis model parameters have to be given, assumed or inferred in a previous, separate and highly non-linear modelling step using one of the these data sets alone. We present a new earthquake rupture model implementation that realizes a fully combined data integration of surface displacement measurements and seismic data in a non-linear optimization of simple but extended planar ruptures. The model implementation allows for fast forward calculations of full seismograms and surface deformation and therefore enables us to use Monte Carlo global search algorithms. Furthermore, we benefit from the complementary character of seismic and geodetic data, e. g. the high definition of the source location from geodetic data and the sensitivity of the resolution of the seismic data on moment releases at larger depth. These increased constraints from the combined dataset make optimizations efficient, even for larger model parameter spaces and with a very limited amount of a priori assumption on the source. A vital part of our approach is rigorous data weighting based on the empirically estimated data errors. We construct full data error variance-covariance matrices for geodetic data to account for correlated data noise and also weight the seismic data based on their signal-to-noise ratio. The estimation of the data errors and the fast forward modelling opens the door for Bayesian inferences of the source model parameters. The source model product then features parameter uncertainty estimates and reveals parameter trade-offs that arise from imperfect data coverage and data errors. We applied our new source modelling approach to the 2010 Haiti earthquake for which a number of apparently different seismic, geodetic and joint source models has been reported already - mostly without any model parameter estimations. We here show that the variability of all these source models seems to arise from inherent model parameter trade-offs and mostly has little statistical significance, e.g. even using a large dataset comprising seismic and geodetic data the confidence interval of the fault dip remains as wide as about 20 degrees.

Dynamic ruptures on faults of complex geometry: insights from numerical simulations, from large-scale curvature to small-scale fractal roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.

2016-12-01

The geometry of faults is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. As buried structures being not directly observable, their complex shapes may only be inferred from surface traces, if available, or through geophysical methods, such as reflection seismology. As a consequence, most studies aiming at assessing the potential hazard of faults rely on idealized fault models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are known to be wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. The influence of roughness on the earthquake rupture process is currently a driving topic in the computational seismology community. From the numerical point of view, rough faults problems are challenging problems that require optimized codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computing infrastructure and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physically, simulated ruptures hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Incorporating fault geometry on all scales may thus be crucial to model realistic earthquake source processes and to estimate more accurately seismic hazard. In this study, we use the software package SeisSol, based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, to run our numerical simulations. SeisSol allows solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem and the wave propagation problem with high-order accuracy in space and time efficiently on large-scale machines. In this study, the influence of fault roughness on dynamic rupture style (e.g. onset of supershear transition, rupture front coherence, propagation of self-healing pulses, etc) at different length scales is investigated by analyzing ruptures on faults of varying roughness spectral content. In particular, we investigate the existence of a minimum roughness length scale in terms of rupture inherent length scales below which the rupture ceases to be sensible. Finally, the effect of fault geometry on ground-motions, in the near-field, is considered. Our simulations feature a classical linear slip weakening on the fault and a viscoplastic constitutive model off the fault. The benefits of using a more elaborate fast velocity-weakening friction law will also be considered.

Integration of On-Line and Off-Line Diagnostic Algorithms for Aircraft Engine Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L.

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the integration of on-line and off-line diagnostic algorithms for aircraft gas turbine engines. The on-line diagnostic algorithm is designed for in-flight fault detection. It continuously monitors engine outputs for anomalous signatures induced by faults. The off-line diagnostic algorithm is designed to track engine health degradation over the lifetime of an engine. It estimates engine health degradation periodically over the course of the engine s life. The estimate generated by the off-line algorithm is used to update the on-line algorithm. Through this integration, the on-line algorithm becomes aware of engine health degradation, and its effectiveness to detect faults can be maintained while the engine continues to degrade. The benefit of this integration is investigated in a simulation environment using a nonlinear engine model.

An earthquake rate forecast for Europe based on smoothed seismicity and smoothed fault contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiemer, Stefan; Woessner, Jochen; Basili, Roberto; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

The main objective of project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is to develop a community-based seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The logic tree of earthquake rupture forecasts comprises several methodologies including smoothed seismicity approaches. Smoothed seismicity thus represents an alternative concept to express the degree of spatial stationarity of seismicity and provides results that are more objective, reproducible, and testable. Nonetheless, the smoothed-seismicity approach suffers from the common drawback of being generally based on earthquake catalogs alone, i.e. the wealth of knowledge from geology is completely ignored. We present a model that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults and subductions. The result is mainly driven by the data, being independent of subjective delineation of seismic source zones. The core parts of our model are two distinct location probability densities: The first is computed by smoothing past seismicity (using variable kernel smoothing to account for varying data density). The second is obtained by smoothing fault moment rate contributions. The fault moment rates are calculated by summing the moment rate of each fault patch on a fully parameterized and discretized fault as available from the SHARE fault database. We assume that the regional frequency-magnitude distribution of the entire study area is well known and estimate the a- and b-value of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the seismic catalog. The two location probability densities are linearly weighted as a function of magnitude assuming that (1) the occurrence of past seismicity is a good proxy to forecast occurrence of future seismicity and (2) future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. Consequently, the underlying location density of our model depends on the magnitude. We scale the density with the estimated a-value in order to construct a forecast that specifies the earthquake rate in each longitude-latitude-magnitude bin. The model is intended to be one branch of SHARE's logic tree of rupture forecasts and provides rates of events in the magnitude range of 5 <= m <= 8.5 for the entire region of interest and is suitable for comparison with other long-term models in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP).

Co-seismic Static Stress Drops for Earthquake Ruptures Nucleated on Faults After Progressive Strain Localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, W. A.; Nielsen, S.; di Toro, G.; Pollard, D. D.; Pennacchioni, G.

2007-12-01

We estimate the coseismic static stress drop on small exhumed strike-slip faults in the Mt. Abbot quadrangle of the central Sierra Nevada (California). The sub-vertical strike-slip faults cut ~85 Ma granodiorite, were exhumed from 7-10 km depth, and were chosen because they are exposed along their entire lengths, ranging from 8 to 13 m. Net slip is estimated using offset aplite dikes and shallowly plunging slickenlines on the fault surfaces. The faults show a record of progressive strain localization: slip initially nucleated on joints and accumulated from ductile shearing (quartz-bearing mylonites) to brittle slipping (epidote-bearing cataclasites). Thin (< 1 mm) pseudotachylytes associated with the cataclasites have been identified along some faults, suggesting that brittle slip may have been seismic. The brittle contribution to slip may be distinguished from the ductile shearing because epidote-filled, rhombohedral dilational jogs opened at bends and step-overs during brittle slip, are distributed periodically along the length of the faults. We argue that brittle slip occurred along the measured fault lengths in single slip events based on several pieces of evidence. 1) Epidote crystals are randomly oriented and undeformed within dilational jogs, indicating they did not grow during aseismic slip and were not broken after initial opening and precipitation. 2) Opening-mode splay cracks are concentrated near fault tips rather than the fault center, suggesting that the reactivated faults ruptured all at once rather than in smaller slip patches. 3) The fact that the opening lengths of the dilational jogs vary systematically along the fault traces suggests that brittle reactivation occurred in a single slip event along the entire fault rather than in multiple slip events. This unique combination of factors distinguishes this study from previous attempts to estimate stress drop from exhumed faults because we can constrain the coseismic rupture length and slip. The static stress drop is calculated for a circular fault using the length of the mapped faults and their slip distributions as well as the shear modulus of the host granodiorite measured in the laboratory. Calculations yield stress drops on the order of 100-200 MPa, one to two orders of magnitude larger than typical seismological estimates. The studied seismic ruptures occurred along small, deep-seated faults (10 km depth), and, given the fault mineral filling (quartz-bearing mylonites) these were "strong" faults. Our estimates are consistent with static stress drops estimated by Nadeau and Johnson (1998) for small repeated earthquakes.

Study of the Nankai seismogenic fault using dynamic wave propagation modelling of digital rock from the Nobeoka Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eng, Chandoeun; Ikeda, Tatsunori; Tsuji, Takeshi

2018-10-01

To understand the characteristics of the Nankai seismogenic fault in the plate convergent margin, we calculated the P- and S-wave velocities (VP and VS) of digital rock models constructed from core samples of an ancient plate boundary fault at Nobeoka, Kyushu Island, Japan. We first constructed 3D digital rock models from microcomputed tomography images and identified their heterogeneous textures such as cracks and veins. We replaced the cracks and veins with air, water, quartz, calcite and other materials with different bulk and shear moduli. Using the Rotated Staggered Grid Finite-Difference Method, we performed dynamic wave propagation simulations and quantified the effective VP, VS and the ratio of VP to VS (VP/VS) of the 3D digital rock models with different crack-filling minerals. Our results demonstrate that the water-saturated cracks considerably decreased the seismic velocity and increased VP/VS. The VP/VS of the quartz-filled rock model was lower than that in the water-saturated case and in the calcite-filled rock model. By comparing the elastic properties derived from the digital rock models with the seismic velocities (e.g. VP and VP/VS) around the seismogenic fault estimated from field seismic data, we characterised the evolution process of the deep seismogenic fault. The high VP/VS and low VP observed at the transition from aseismic to coseismic regimes in the Nankai Trough can be explained by open cracks (or fractures), while the low VP/VS and high VP observed at the deeper coseismic fault zone suggests quartz-filled cracks. The quartz-rich fault zone characterised as low VP/VS and high VP in this study could partially relate to the coseismic behaviour as suggested by previous studies, because quartz exhibits slip-weakening behaviour (i.e. unstable coseismic slip).

Interseismic coupling and geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust: A complementary approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Zilio, L.; Jolivet, R.; van Dinther, Y.

2017-12-01

Estimating the extent of interseismic coupling along megathrusts is essential for quantitative assessments of seismic hazard. However, interseismic deformation is commonly modeled assuming a planar fault in a purely elastic and infinitely long half-space. These assumptions can thus strongly impact inferences of seismogenic coupling. To address this issue, we apply a complementary approach that combines inversion of geodetic data and a newly developed 2D, visco-elasto-plastic seismo-thermo-mechanical (STM) model. By employing a combination of geological and geophysical constraints, we design a high resolution model setup of the present-day Nepal Himalaya and geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault. We next invert the resulting synthetic geodetic data for the along-dip pattern of coupling on the MHT. Afterwards, we employ a back-slip model to predict and compare the interseismic strain obtained from the model. Using a Bayesian approach, we finally analyze the 3D pattern of interseismic coupling on the MHT based on a compilation of geodetic data. This allows us to infer the probability of significant fault locking patches as well as of the creeping sections. By considering different geometries of the MHT as end-member cases, our results establish the dependence of interseismic coupling and surface displacement on geometry, temperature and rheology of the MHT. Depending on the position and dip-angle of the well-know mid-crustal ramp, the location and amplitude of interseismic shortening and uplift change according to the back-slip model prediction. These results thus emphasize the necessity of rigorous models that correctly account for complex fault geometries as well as for realistic rheologies in the slip processes. We will discuss how these results can be used to estimate heterogeneity of geodetic coupling, the mechanics governing the observed behavior and the implications for potential large ruptures.

The balance of frictional heat production, thermal pressurization, and slip resistance on exhumed mid-crustal faults (Adamello batholith, Southern Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, W. A.; di Toro, G.; Pollard, D. D.

2005-12-01

Exhumed faults cutting the Adamello batholith (Italian Alps) were active ca. 30 Ma at seismogenic depths of 9-11 km. The faults "exploited preexisting joints and can be classified into three groups containing: (A) only cataclasite (a fault rock with no evidence of melting), (B) cataclasite and pseudotachylyte (solidified friction-induced melts produced during earthquakes), and (C) only pseudotachylyte. The majority of pseudotachylyte-bearing faults in this outcrop overprint pre-existing cataclasites (Type B), suggesting a transition between slip styles; however, some faults exhibiting pseudotachylyte and no cataclasite (Type C) display evidence of only one episode of slip. Faults of Type A never transitioned to frictional melting. We attempt to compare faults of type A, B, and C in terms of a simple one-dimensional thermo-mechanical model introduced by Lachenbruch (1980) describing the interaction between frictional heating, pore fluid pressure, and shear resistance during slip. The interaction of these three parameters influences how much elastic strain is relieved during an earthquake. For a conceptualized fault zone of finite thickness, the interplay between the shear resistance, heat production, and pore fluid pressure can be expressed as a non-linear partial differential equation relating these processes to the strain rate acting within a fault zone during a slip event. The behavior of fault zones in terms of these coupled processes during an earthquake depends on a number of parameters, such as thickness of the principal slipping zone, net coseismic slip, fault rock permeability and thermal diffusivity. Ideally, the governing equations should be testable on real fault zones if the requisite parameters can be measured or reasonably estimated. The model can be further simplified if the peak temperature reached during slip and the coseismic slip rate can be constrained. The contrasting nature of slip on the three Adamello fault types highlights (1) important differences between slip processes on cataclastic and melt-producing faults at depth and (2) some limitations of applicability of such models to real faults.

Modeling and Measurement Constraints in Fault Diagnostics for HVAC Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Najafi, Massieh; Auslander, David M.; Bartlett, Peter L.

2010-05-30

Many studies have shown that energy savings of five to fifteen percent are achievable in commercial buildings by detecting and correcting building faults, and optimizing building control systems. However, in spite of good progress in developing tools for determining HVAC diagnostics, methods to detect faults in HVAC systems are still generally undeveloped. Most approaches use numerical filtering or parameter estimation methods to compare data from energy meters and building sensors to predictions from mathematical or statistical models. They are effective when models are relatively accurate and data contain few errors. In this paper, we address the case where models aremore » imperfect and data are variable, uncertain, and can contain error. We apply a Bayesian updating approach that is systematic in managing and accounting for most forms of model and data errors. The proposed method uses both knowledge of first principle modeling and empirical results to analyze the system performance within the boundaries defined by practical constraints. We demonstrate the approach by detecting faults in commercial building air handling units. We find that the limitations that exist in air handling unit diagnostics due to practical constraints can generally be effectively addressed through the proposed approach.« less

Heavy-Ion Microbeam Fault Injection into SRAM-Based FPGA Implementations of Cryptographic Circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Huiyun; Du, Guanghua; Shao, Cuiping; Dai, Liang; Xu, Guoqing; Guo, Jinlong

2015-06-01

Transistors hit by heavy ions may conduct transiently, thereby introducing transient logic errors. Attackers can exploit these abnormal behaviors and extract sensitive information from the electronic devices. This paper demonstrates an ion irradiation fault injection attack experiment into a cryptographic field-programmable gate-array (FPGA) circuit. The experiment proved that the commercial FPGA chip is vulnerable to low-linear energy transfer carbon irradiation, and the attack can cause the leakage of secret key bits. A statistical model is established to estimate the possibility of an effective fault injection attack on cryptographic integrated circuits. The model incorporates the effects from temporal, spatial, and logical probability of an effective attack on the cryptographic circuits. The rate of successful attack calculated from the model conforms well to the experimental results. This quantitative success rate model can help evaluate security risk for designers as well as for the third-party assessment organizations.

A New Geological Slip Rate Estimate for the Calico Fault, Eastern California: Implications for Geodetic Versus Geologic Rate Estimates in the Eastern California Shear Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetmore, P. H.; Xie, S.; Gallant, E.; Owen, L. A.; Dixon, T. H.

2017-12-01

Fault slip rate is fundamental to accurate seismic hazard assessment. In the Mojave Desert section of the Eastern California Shear Zone previous studies have suggested a discrepancy between short-term geodetic and long-term geologic slip rate estimates. Understanding the origin of this discrepancy could lead to better understanding of stress evolution, and improve earthquake hazard estimates in general. We measured offsets in alluvial fans along the Calico fault near Newberry Springs, California, and used exposure age dating based on the cosmogenic nuclide 10Be to date the offset landforms. We derive a mean slip rate of 3.6 mm/yr, representing an average over the last few hundred thousand years, significantly faster than previous estimates. Considering numerous faults in the Mojave Desert and limited geologic slip rate estimates, it is premature to claim a geologic versus geodetic "discrepancy" for the ECSZ. More slip rate data, from all faults with the ECSZ, are needed to provide a statistically meaningful assessment of the geologic rates for each of the faults comprising the ECSZ.

Interseismic coupling, seismic potential, and earthquake recurrence on the southern front of the Eastern Alps (NE Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheloni, D.; D'Agostino, N.; Selvaggi, G.

2014-05-01

Here we use continuous GPS observations to document the geodetic strain accumulation across the South-Eastern Alps (NE Italy). We estimate the interseismic coupling on the intracontinental collision thrust fault and discuss the seismic potential and earthquake recurrence. We invert the GPS velocities using the back slip approach to simultaneously estimate the relative angular velocity and the degree of interseismic coupling on the thrust fault that separates the Eastern Alps and the Venetian-Friulian plain. Comparison between the rigid rotation predicted motion and the shortening observed across the area indicates that the South-Eastern Alpine thrust front absorbs about 70% of the total convergence between the Adria and Eurasia plates. The coupling is computed on a north dipping fault following the continuous external seismogenic thrust front of the South-Eastern Alps. The modeled thrust fault is currently locked from the surface to a depth of ≈10 km. The transition zone between locked and creeping portions of the fault roughly corresponds with the belt of microseismicity parallel and to the north of the mountain front. The estimated moment deficit rate is 1.3 ± 0.4 × 1017 Nm/yr. The comparison between the estimated moment deficit and that released historically by the earthquakes suggests that to account for the moment deficit the following two factors or their combination should be considered: (1) a significant part of the observed interseismic coupling is released aseismically and (2) infrequent "large" events with long return period (> 1000 years) and with magnitudes larger than the value assigned to the largest historical events (Mw≈ 6.7).

Methods to enhance seismic faults and construct fault surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xinming; Zhu, Zhihui

2017-10-01

Faults are often apparent as reflector discontinuities in a seismic volume. Numerous types of fault attributes have been proposed to highlight fault positions from a seismic volume by measuring reflection discontinuities. These attribute volumes, however, can be sensitive to noise and stratigraphic features that are also apparent as discontinuities in a seismic volume. We propose a matched filtering method to enhance a precomputed fault attribute volume, and simultaneously estimate fault strikes and dips. In this method, a set of efficient 2D exponential filters, oriented by all possible combinations of strike and dip angles, are applied to the input attribute volume to find the maximum filtering responses at all samples in the volume. These maximum filtering responses are recorded to obtain the enhanced fault attribute volume while the corresponding strike and dip angles, that yield the maximum filtering responses, are recoded to obtain volumes of fault strikes and dips. By doing this, we assume that a fault surface is locally planar, and a 2D smoothing filter will yield a maximum response if the smoothing plane coincides with a local fault plane. With the enhanced fault attribute volume and the estimated fault strike and dip volumes, we then compute oriented fault samples on the ridges of the enhanced fault attribute volume, and each sample is oriented by the estimated fault strike and dip. Fault surfaces can be constructed by directly linking the oriented fault samples with consistent fault strikes and dips. For complicated cases with missing fault samples and noisy samples, we further propose to use a perceptual grouping method to infer fault surfaces that reasonably fit the positions and orientations of the fault samples. We apply these methods to 3D synthetic and real examples and successfully extract multiple intersecting fault surfaces and complete fault surfaces without holes.

Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hintersberger, Esther; Decker, Kurt; Lomax, Johanna; Lüthgens, Christopher

2018-02-01

Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs / Mmax, obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a-1 derived from the trenches compare well to geomorphically derived slip rates of 0.02-0.09 mm a-1. Magnitude estimates from fault dimensions suggest that the largest earthquakes observed in the trenches activated the entire fault surface of the MF including the basal detachment that links the normal fault with the VBTF. The most important implications of these palaeoseismological results for seismic hazard assessment are as follows. (1) The MF is an active seismic source, capable of rupturing the surface despite the lack of historical earthquakes. (2) The MF is kinematically and geologically equivalent to a number of other splay faults of the VBTF. It is reasonable to assume that these faults are potential sources of large earthquakes as well. The frequency of strong earthquakes near Vienna is therefore expected to be significantly higher than the earthquake frequency reconstructed for the MF alone. (3) Although rare events, the potential for earthquake magnitudes equal or greater than M = 7.0 in the Vienna Basin should be considered in seismic hazard studies.

Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharer, Katherine M.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Weldon, Ray J.; Fumal, Tom E.

2010-01-01

It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.

Normal-faulting slip maxima and stress-drop variability: a geological perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hecker, S.; Dawson, T.E.; Schwartz, D.P.

2010-01-01

We present an empirical estimate of maximum slip in continental normal-faulting earthquakes and present evidence that stress drop in intraplate extensional environments is dependent on fault maturity. A survey of reported slip in historical earthquakes globally and in latest Quaternary paleoearthquakes in the Western Cordillera of the United States indicates maximum vertical displacements as large as 6–6.5 m. A difference in the ratio of maximum-to-mean displacements between data sets of prehistoric and historical earthquakes, together with constraints on bias in estimates of mean paleodisplacement, suggest that applying a correction factor of 1.4±0.3 to the largest observed displacement along a paleorupture may provide a reasonable estimate of the maximum displacement. Adjusting the largest paleodisplacements in our regional data set (~6 m) by a factor of 1.4 yields a possible upper-bound vertical displacement for the Western Cordillera of about 8.4 m, although a smaller correction factor may be more appropriate for the longest ruptures. Because maximum slip is highly localized along strike, if such large displacements occur, they are extremely rare. Static stress drop in surface-rupturing earthquakes in the Western Cordillera, as represented by maximum reported displacement as a fraction of modeled rupture length, appears to be larger on normal faults with low cumulative geologic displacement (<2 km) and larger in regions such as the Rocky Mountains, where immature, low-throw faults are concentrated. This conclusion is consistent with a growing recognition that structural development influences stress drop and indicates that this influence is significant enough to be evident among faults within a single intraplate environment.

Modelling induced seismicity due to fluid injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S.; O'Brien, G. S.; Bean, C. J.; McCloskey, J.; Nalbant, S. S.

2011-12-01

Injection of fluid into the subsurface alters the stress in the crust and can induce earthquakes. The science of assessing the risk of induced seismicity from such ventures is still in its infancy despite public concern. We plan to use a fault network model in which stress perturbations due to fluid injection induce earthquakes. We will use this model to investigate the role different operational and geological factors play in increasing seismicity in a fault system due to fluid injection. The model is based on a quasi-dynamic relationship between stress and slip coupled with a rate and state fiction law. This allows us to model slip on fault interfaces over long periods of time (i.e. years to 100's years). With the use of the rate and state friction law the nature of stress release during slipping can be altered through variation of the frictional parameters. Both seismic and aseismic slip can therefore be simulated. In order to add heterogeneity along the fault plane a fractal variation in the frictional parameters is used. Fluid injection is simulated using the lattice Boltzmann method whereby pore pressure diffuses throughout a permeable layer from the point of injection. The stress perturbation this causes on the surrounding fault system is calculated using a quasi-static solution for slip dislocation in an elastic half space. From this model we can generate slip histories and seismicity catalogues covering 100's of years for predefined fault networks near fluid injection sites. Given that rupture is a highly non-linear process, comparison between models with different input parameters (e.g. fault network statistics and injection rates) will be based on system wide features (such as the Gutenberg-Richter b-values), rather than specific seismic events. Our ultimate aim is that our model produces seismic catalogues similar to those observed over real injection sites. Such validation would pave the way to probabilistic estimation of reactivation risk for injection sites using such models. Preliminary results from this model will be presented.

Flexible kinematic earthquake rupture inversion of tele-seismic waveforms: Application to the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.; Kasahara, A.

2017-12-01

The kinematic earthquake rupture models are useful to derive statistics and scaling properties of the large and great earthquakes. However, the kinematic rupture models for the same earthquake are often different from one another. Such sensitivity of the modeling prevents us to understand the statistics and scaling properties of the earthquakes. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) introduces the uncertainty of Green's function into the tele-seismic waveform inversion, and shows that the stable spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate can be obtained by using an empirical Bayesian scheme. One of the unsolved problems in the inversion rises from the modeling error originated from an uncertainty of a fault-model setting. Green's function near the nodal plane of focal mechanism is known to be sensitive to the slight change of the assumed fault geometry, and thus the spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate should be distorted by the modeling error originated from the uncertainty of the fault model. We propose a new method accounting for the complexity in the fault geometry by additionally solving the focal mechanism on each space knot. Since a solution of finite source inversion gets unstable with an increasing of flexibility of the model, we try to estimate a stable spatiotemporal distribution of focal mechanism in the framework of Yagi and Fukahata (2011). We applied the proposed method to the 52 tele-seismic P-waveforms of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake. The inverted-potency distribution shows unilateral rupture propagation toward southwest of the epicenter, and the spatial variation of the focal mechanisms shares the same pattern as the fault-curvature along the tectonic fabric. On the other hand, the broad pattern of rupture process, including the direction of rupture propagation, cannot be reproduced by an inversion analysis under the assumption that the faulting occurred on a single flat plane. These results show that the modeling error caused by simplifying the fault model is non-negligible in the tele-seismic waveform inversion of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake.

Statistical estimation via convex optimization for trending and performance monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samar, Sikandar

This thesis presents an optimization-based statistical estimation approach to find unknown trends in noisy data. A Bayesian framework is used to explicitly take into account prior information about the trends via trend models and constraints. The main focus is on convex formulation of the Bayesian estimation problem, which allows efficient computation of (globally) optimal estimates. There are two main parts of this thesis. The first part formulates trend estimation in systems described by known detailed models as a convex optimization problem. Statistically optimal estimates are then obtained by maximizing a concave log-likelihood function subject to convex constraints. We consider the problem of increasing problem dimension as more measurements become available, and introduce a moving horizon framework to enable recursive estimation of the unknown trend by solving a fixed size convex optimization problem at each horizon. We also present a distributed estimation framework, based on the dual decomposition method, for a system formed by a network of complex sensors with local (convex) estimation. Two specific applications of the convex optimization-based Bayesian estimation approach are described in the second part of the thesis. Batch estimation for parametric diagnostics in a flight control simulation of a space launch vehicle is shown to detect incipient fault trends despite the natural masking properties of feedback in the guidance and control loops. Moving horizon approach is used to estimate time varying fault parameters in a detailed nonlinear simulation model of an unmanned aerial vehicle. An excellent performance is demonstrated in the presence of winds and turbulence.

Upper-crustal structure of the inner Continental Borderland near Long Beach, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baher, S.; Fuis, G.; Sliter, R.; Normark, W.R.

2005-01-01

A new P-wave velocity/structural model for the inner Continental Borderland (ICB) region was developed for the area near Long Beach, California. It combines controlled-source seismic reflection and refraction data collected during the 1994 Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment (LARSE), multichannel seismic reflection data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (1998-2000), and nearshore borehole stratigraphy. Based on lateral velocity contrasts and stratigraphic variation determined from borehole data, we are able to locate major faults such as the Cabrillo, Palos Verdes, THUMS-Huntington Beach, and Newport Inglewood fault zones, along with minor faults such as the slope fault, Avalon knoll, and several other yet unnamed faults. Catalog seismicity (1975-2002) plotted on our preferred velocity/structural model shows recent seismicity is located on 16 out of our 24 faults, providing evidence for continuing concern with respect to the existing seismic-hazard estimates. Forward modeling of P-wave arrival times on the LARSE line 1 resulted in a four-layer model that better resolves the stratigraphy and geologic structures of the ICB and also provides tighter constraints on the upper-crustal velocity structure than previous modeling of the LARSE data. There is a correlation between the structural horizons identified in the reflection data with the velocity interfaces determined from forward modeling of refraction data. The strongest correlation is between the base of velocity layer 1 of the refraction model and the base of the planar sediment beneath the shelf and slope determined by the reflection model. Layers 2 and 3 of the velocity model loosely correlate with the diffractive crust layer, locally interpreted as Catalina Schist.

Depth variations of friction rate parameter derived from dynamic modeling of GPS afterslip associated with the 2003 Mw 6.5 Chengkung earthquake in eastern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. C.; Liu, Z. Y. C.; Shirzaei, M.

2016-12-01

The Chihshang fault lies at the plate suture between the Eurasian and the Philippine Sea plates along the Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan. Here we investigate depth variation of fault frictional parameters derived from the post-seismic slip model of the 2003 Mw 6.5 Chengkung earthquake. Assuming a rate-strengthening friction, we implement an inverse dynamic modeling scheme to estimate the frictional parameter (a-b) and reference friction coefficient (μ*) in depths by taking into account: pre-seismic stress as well as co-seismic and post-seismic coulomb stress changes associated with the 2003 Chengkung earthquake. We investigate two coseismic models by Hsu et al. (2009) and Thomas et al. (2014). Model parameters, including stress gradient, depth dependent a-b and μ*, are determined from fitting the transient post-seismic geodetic signal measured at 12 continuous GPS stations. In our inversion scheme, we apply a non-linear optimization algorithm, Genetic Algorithm (GA), to search for the optimum frictional parameters. Considering the zone with velocity-strengthening frictional properties along Chihshang fault, the optimum a-b is 7-8 × 10-3 along the shallow part of the fault (0-10 km depth) and 1-2 × 10-2 in 22-28 km depth. Optimum solution for μ* is 0.3-0.4 in 0-10 km depth and reaches 0.8 in 22-28 km depth. The optimized stress gradient is 54 MPa/ km. The inferred frictional parameters are consistent with the laboratory measurements on clay-rich fault zone gouges comparable to the Lichi Melange, which is thrust over Holocene alluvial deposits across the Chihshang fault, considering the main rock composition of the Chihshang fault, at least at the upper kilometers level of the fault. Our results can facilitate further studies in particular on seismic cycle and hazard assessment of active faults.

Magmatic-Tectonic Interactions: Implications for Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Central Walker Lane and Long Valley Caldera Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacko, R.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Bormann, J. M.

2014-12-01

Accurate estimates of fault slip rates based on geodetic data rely on measurements that represent the long-term deformation of the crust. In the Central Walker Lane/Sierra Nevada transition, the Long Valley Caldera region has experienced multiple episodes of uplift and subsidence during the last four decades. The latest episode began in late 2011 and is detectable as a transient signal in the time series of GPS stations around the caldera. These transient signals become more apparent and reveal the extent of the impact on the ambient crustal deformation field of the Walker Lane when the velocity vectors are transformed to a Sierra-Nevada reference frame. Estimating contemporary slip-rates on faults for the purpose of seismic hazard assessment in the region around Long Valley requires detecting and subtracting the transient signals caused by the uplift and subsidence in the caldera. We estimate the geographic extent to which the ambient crustal deformation field is significantly perturbed by ongoing magmatic activity in Long Valley. We present a time variable 3D deformation field constrained by InSAR and GPS observations, and discuss the implications that tectonic-magmatic interaction have for estimates of present-day fault slip-rate. We model the time dependent deformation at Long Valley by analyzing InSAR time series from Envisat and ERS interferograms spanning a period of more than 19 years. We use an analytical volcano deformation source model derived from vertical (GPS) and line of site (InSAR) component of geodetic observations to estimate the horizontal component of the signals associated with magmatic activity beneath the caldera. Previous studies showed that the latest episode of uplift can be modeled with a Mogi source located at a depth of ~6 km with a volume change of 0.03 km3 beneath the resurgent dome. This model predicts a perturbation to the ambient crustal deformation field extending as far as 60 km from the center of the resurgent dome. Thus the area affected by Long Valley extends from north of Mono Lake southward to Owens Lake, and eastward to the Mina deflection of the Walker Lane, potentially influencing the estimated slip rates for a dozen or more major faults.

New insight into the 1556 M8 Huaxian earthquake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, J.

2017-12-01

The disastrous 1556 M8 Huaxian earthquake in China took away 0.8Ma lives then as well as attracted scientists' attention. Although the Huashan front fault and Weinan plateform-front fault at the south margin of Weihe basin was responsible for this earthquake, we know less about the fault behaviors. There's evidence that the modern riverbank offset and older geomorphic scarps in Chishui river site on Weinan plateau-front fault from the Pleiades DEM. Here, we did a 3D trench excavation model using SfM work, drilling profiles and geomorphological measurement there to revive the site for multiearthquakes. It turns out two events occurred on the normal fault with pretty high offsets 9.4m and 7.8-8.0m respectively, the later one resulted from Huaxian earthquake. And we estimate that the fault slip rate approximately 1.48-1.75 mm/a. Thus, we find that the older earthquake also produced a similar fault offsets to the 1556 earthquake showing as characteristics earthquake. The paleoseismic study demonstrates that the Weinan pateform-front fault plays a role in boundary faults of Weihe basin, which can contribute to the basin evolution of regions of active faulting.

The impact of legislation on divorce: a hazard function approach.

PubMed

Kidd, M P

1995-01-01

"The paper examines the impact of the introduction of no-fault divorce legislation in Australia. The approach used is rather novel, a hazard model of the divorce rate is estimated with the role of legislation captured via a time-varying covariate. The paper concludes that contrary to U.S. empirical evidence, no-fault divorce legislation appears to have had a positive impact upon the divorce rate in Australia." excerpt

Direct measurement of the breakdown slip from near-fault strong motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Atienza, V. M.; Olsen, K. B.; Dalguer, L. A.

2007-12-01

Obtaining reliable estimates of the frictional behaviour on earthquake faults is a fundamental task, particularly the breakdown slip Dc, which has an important role on rupture propagation through the earthquake energy budget. Several studies have attempted to estimate Dc indirectly from kinematical analysis of fault ruptures (e.g., Ide and Takeo, JGR, 1997). However, such estimates are complicated because of both the limited band-width of the observed seismograms used to image the rupture process and the rapid decay of high frequencies with distance from the fault. Mikumo et al. (BSSA, 2003) proposed a method to estimate Dc on the fault plane as the slip at the time of the peak sliprate function (Dc'). Fukuyama and Mikumo (GRL, 2007) proposed to extend this method beyond the fault plane, by estimating Dc as twice the rake-parallel particle displacement at the time of the peak particle velocity. The factor of two arises from an equal amount of opposite displacement on either side of the fault. They concluded that such method allows reliable Dc' estimates with negligible dependence on the perpendicular distance from the fault, and used it to obtain Dc' estimates for the 2000 M6.6 Tottori (0.3 m) and the 2002 M7.9 Denali (2.5 m) earthquakes. The study by Fukuyama and Mikumo was based on simple two-dimensional Green's functions in a homogeneous full space for an anti-plane kinematic crack, and suffers from three fundamental omissions: 1) the free surface and heterogeneous structure, 2) the finiteness of the rupture surface and 3) the dynamic rupture complexity of real 3D earthquakes. Here, we re-examine the methodology proposed by Fukuyama and Mikumo by means of a more realistic approach. We use spontaneous rupture propagation simulated by a recently developed and highly accurate approach, namely the staggered-grid split-node (SGSN) method in a fourth-order staggered- grid finite difference method (Dalguer and Day, JGR, 2007). We assume a vertical strike-slip fault governed by both linear and non-linear slip-weakening friction laws. Our results show that both the free surface and the stopping phases strongly affect Dc estimates. The particle motion recorded by surface instruments is amplified roughly by a factor of two due to the presence of the free surface. As a consequence, the method by Fukuyama and Mikumo over-estimates Dc when applied to strong motion data recorded on the earth's surface. Moreover, contrary to the results by Fukuyama and Mikumo, we observe a strong distance-dependence of the Dc estimates perpendicular to the fault. This variation includes a minimum near the fault, increasing up to about 140% of the target Dc value at a distance 2-3 km from the fault. At further distances from the fault the Dc estimate decreases to about 60% of the target value 10 km away. This distance dependence of the Dc estimate is presumably caused mainly by stopping phases propagating from the fault boundaries. Simulations in heterogeneous media including a low-velocity layer, intrinsic attenuation (Q) and stochastic initial stress conditions allow us to asses the reliability and uncertainty involved in the method proposed by Fukuyama and Mikumo. Dc estimates under these realistic conditions are important but remain below a factor of two in most of the cases we have analyzed. In summary, the accuracy of the method is strongly affected by the presence of the free surface, finite fault extent, and likely by complexity in the velocity structure and rupture propagation.

Strong ground motion prediction applying dynamic rupture simulations for Beppu-Haneyama Active Fault Zone, southwestern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimi, M.; Matsushima, S.; Ando, R.; Miyake, H.; Imanishi, K.; Hayashida, T.; Takenaka, H.; Suzuki, H.; Matsuyama, H.

2017-12-01

We conducted strong ground motion prediction for the active Beppu-Haneyama Fault zone (BHFZ), Kyushu island, southwestern Japan. Since the BHFZ runs through Oita and Beppy cities, strong ground motion as well as fault displacement may affect much to the cities.We constructed a 3-dimensional velocity structure of a sedimentary basin, Beppu bay basin, where the fault zone runs through and Oita and Beppu cities are located. Minimum shear wave velocity of the 3d model is 500 m/s. Additional 1-d structure is modeled for sites with softer sediment: holocene plain area. We observed, collected, and compiled data obtained from microtremor surveys, ground motion observations, boreholes etc. phase velocity and H/V ratio. Finer structure of the Oita Plain is modeled, as 250m-mesh model, with empirical relation among N-value, lithology, depth and Vs, using borehole data, then validated with the phase velocity data obtained by the dense microtremor array observation (Yoshimi et al., 2016).Synthetic ground motion has been calculated with a hybrid technique composed of a stochastic Green's function method (for HF wave), a 3D finite difference (LF wave) and 1D amplification calculation. Fault geometry has been determined based on reflection surveys and active fault map. The rake angles are calculated with a dynamic rupture simulation considering three fault segments under a stress filed estimated from source mechanism of earthquakes around the faults (Ando et al., JpGU-AGU2017). Fault parameters such as the average stress drop, a size of asperity etc. are determined based on an empirical relation proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2001). As a result, strong ground motion stronger than 100 cm/s is predicted in the hanging wall side of the Oita plain.This work is supported by the Comprehensive Research on the Beppu-Haneyama Fault Zone funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

Pulverization provides a mechanism for the nucleation of earthquakes at low stress on strong faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felzer, Karen R.

2014-01-01

An earthquake occurs when rock that has been deformed under stress rebounds elastically along a fault plane (Gilbert, 1884; Reid, 1911), radiating seismic waves through the surrounding earth. Rupture along the entire fault surface does not spontaneously occur at the same time, however. Rather the rupture starts in one tiny area, the rupture nucleation zone, and spreads sequentially along the fault. Like a row of dominoes, one bit of rebounding fault triggers the next. This triggering is understood to occur because of the large dynamic stresses at the tip of an active seismic rupture. The importance of these crack tip stresses is a central question in earthquake physics. The crack tip stresses are minimally important, for example, in the time predictable earthquake model (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980), which holds that prior to rupture stresses are comparable to fault strength in many locations on the future rupture plane, with bits of variation. The stress/strength ratio is highest at some point, which is where the earthquake nucleates. This model does not require any special conditions or processes at the nucleation site; the whole fault is essentially ready for rupture at the same time. The fault tip stresses ensure that the rupture occurs as a single rapid earthquake, but the fact that fault tip stresses are high is not particularly relevant since the stress at most points does not need to be raised by much. Under this model it should technically be possible to forecast earthquakes based on the stress-renewaql concept, or estimates of when the fault as a whole will reach the critical stress level, a practice used in official hazard mapping (Field, 2008). This model also indicates that physical precursors may be present and detectable, since stresses are unusually high over a significant area before a large earthquake.

Advanced reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer-based systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.

1982-01-01

Two methodologies for the reliability assessment of fault tolerant digital computer based systems are discussed. The computer-aided reliability estimation 3 (CARE 3) and gate logic software simulation (GLOSS) are assessment technologies that were developed to mitigate a serious weakness in the design and evaluation process of ultrareliable digital systems. The weak link is based on the unavailability of a sufficiently powerful modeling technique for comparing the stochastic attributes of one system against others. Some of the more interesting attributes are reliability, system survival, safety, and mission success.

Displacement-length relationship of normal faults in Acheron Fossae, Mars: new observations with HRSC.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambakis, E.; Hauber, E.; Knapmeyer, M.; Grott, M.; Gwinner, K.

2007-08-01

For Earth, data sets and models have shown that for a fault loaded by a constant remote stress, the maximum displacement on the fault is linearly related to its length by d = gamma · l [1]. The scaling and structure is self-similar through time [1]. The displacement-length relationship can provide useful information about the tectonic regime.We intend to use it to estimate the seismic moment released during the formation of Martian fault systems and to improve the seismicity model [2]. Only few data sets have been measured for extraterrestrial faults. One reason is the limited number of reliable topographic data sets. We used high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) [3] derived from HRSC image data taken from Mars Express orbit 1437. This orbit covers an area in the Acheron Fossae region, a rift-like graben system north of Olympus Mons with a "banana"-shaped topography [4]. It has a fault trend which runs approximately WNW-ESE. With an interactive IDL-based software tool [5] we measured the fault length and the vertical offset for 34 faults. We evaluated the height profile by plotting the fault lengths l vs. their observed maximum displacement (dmax-model). Additionally, we computed the maximum displacement of an elliptical fault scarp where the plane has the same area as in the observed case (elliptical model). The integration over the entire fault length necessary for the computation of the area supresses the "noise" introduced by local topographic effects like erosion or cratering. We should also mention that fault planes dipping 60 degree are usually assumed for Mars [e.g., 6] and even shallower dips have been found for normal fault planes [7]. This dip angle is used to compute displacement from vertical offset via d = h/(h*sinα), where h is the observed topographic step height, and ? is the fault dip angle. If fault dip angles of 30 degree are considered, the displacement differs by 40% from the one of dip angles of 60 degree. Depending on the data quality, especially the lighting conditions in the region, different errors can be made by determining the various values. Based on our experiences, we estimate that the error measuring the length of the fault is smaller than 10% and that the measurement error of the offset is smaller than 5%. Furthermore the horizontal resolution of the HRSC images is 12.5 m/pixel or 25 m/pixel and of the DEM derived from HRSC images 50 m/pixel because of re-sampling. That means that image resolution does not introduce a significant error at fault lengths in kilometer range. For the case of Mars it is known that in the growth of fault populations linkage is an essential process [8]. We obtained the d/l-values from selected examples of faults that were connected via a relay ramp. The error of ignoring an existing fault linkage is 20% to 50% if the elliptical fault model is used and 30% to 50% if only the dmax value is used to determine d l . This shows an advantage of the elliptic model. The error increases if more faults are linked, because the underestimation of the relevant length gets worse the longer the linked system is. We obtained a value of gamma=d/l of about 2 · 10-2 for the elliptic model and a value of approximately 2.7 · 10-2 for the dmax-model. The data show a relatively large scatter, but they can be compared to data from terrestrial faults ( d/l= ~1 · 10-2...5 · 10-2; [9] and references therein). In a first inspection of the Acheron Fossae 2 region in the orbit 1437 we could confirm our first observations [10]. If we consider fault linkage the d/l values shift towards lower d/l-ratios, since linkage means that d remains essentially constant, but l increases significantly. We will continue to measure other faults and obtain values for linked faults and relay ramps. References: [1] Cowie, P. A. and Scholz, C. H. (1992) JSG, 14, 1133-1148. [2] Knapmeyer, M. et al. (2006) JGR, 111, E11006. [3] Neukum, G. et al. (2004) ESA SP-1240, 17-35. [4] Kronberg, P. et al. (2007) J. Geophys. Res., 112, E04005, doi:10.1029/2006JE002780. [5] Hauber, E. et al. (2007) LPSC, XXXVIII, abstract 1338. [6] Wilkins, S. J. et al. (2002) GRL, 29, 1884, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015391. [7] Fueten, F. et al. (2007) LPSC, XXXVIII, abstract 1388. [8] Schultz, R. A. (2000) Tectonophysics, 316, 169-193. [9] Schultz, R. A. et al. (2006) JSG, 28, 2182-2193. [10] Hauber, E. et al. (2007) 7th Mars Conference, submitted.

Ductile bookshelf faulting: A new kinematic model for Cenozoic deformation in northern Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuza, A. V.; Yin, A.

2013-12-01

It has been long recognized that the most dominant features on the northern Tibetan Plateau are the >1000 km left-slip strike-slip faults (e.g., the Atyn Tagh, Kunlun, and Haiyuan faults). Early workers used the presence of these faults, especially the Kunlun and Haiyuan faults, as evidence for eastward lateral extrusion of the plateau, but their low documented offsets--100s of km or less--can not account for the 2500 km of convergence between India and Asia. Instead, these faults may result from north-south right-lateral simple shear due to the northward indentation of India, which leads to the clockwise rotation of the strike-slip faults and left-lateral slip (i.e., bookshelf faulting). With this idea, deformation is still localized on discrete fault planes, and 'microplates' or blocks rotate and/or translate with little internal deformation. As significant internal deformation occurs across northern Tibet within strike-slip-bounded domains, there is need for a coherent model to describe all of the deformational features. We also note the following: (1) geologic offsets and Quaternary slip rates of both the Kunlun and Haiyuan faults vary along strike and appear to diminish to the east, (2) the faults appear to kinematically link with thrust belts (e.g., Qilian Shan, Liupan Shan, Longmen Shan, and Qimen Tagh) and extensional zones (e.g., Shanxi, Yinchuan, and Qinling grabens), and (3) temporal relationships between the major deformation zones and the strike-slip faults (e.g., simultaneous enhanced deformation and offset in the Qilian Shan and Liupan Shan, and the Haiyuan fault, at 8 Ma). We propose a new kinematic model to describe the active deformation in northern Tibet: a ductile-bookshelf-faulting model. With this model, right-lateral simple shear leads to clockwise vertical axis rotation of the Qaidam and Qilian blocks, and left-slip faulting. This motion creates regions of compression and extension, dependent on the local boundary conditions (e.g., rigid Tarim vs. eastern China moving eastward relative to Eurasia), which results in the development of thrust and extensional belts. These zones heterogeneously deform the wall-rock of the major strike-slip faults, causing the faults to stretch (an idea described by W.D. Means 1989 GEOLOGY). This effect is further enhanced by differential fault rotation, leading to more slip in the west, where the effect of India's indentation is more pronounced, than in the east. To investigate the feasibility of this model, we have examined geologic offsets, Quaternary fault slip rates, and GPS velocities, both from existing literature and our own observations. We compare offsets with the estimated shortening and extensional strain in the wall-rocks of the strike-slip faults. For example, if this model is valid, the slip on the eastern segment of the Haiyuan fault (i.e., ~25 km) should be compatible with shortening in the Liupan Shan and extension in the Yinchuan graben. We also present simple analogue model experiments to document the strain accumulated in bookshelf fault systems under different initial and boundary conditions (e.g., rigid vs. free vs. moving boundaries, heterogeneous or homogenous materials, variable strain rates). Comparing these experimentally derived strain distributions with those observed within the plateau can help elucidate which factors dominantly control regional deformation.

An investigation of the effects of measurement noise in the use of instantaneous angular speed for machine diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Fengshou; Yesilyurt, Isa; Li, Yuhua; Harris, Georgina; Ball, Andrew

2006-08-01

In order to discriminate small changes for early fault diagnosis of rotating machines, condition monitoring demands that the measurement of instantaneous angular speed (IAS) of the machines be as accurate as possible. This paper develops the theoretical basis and practical implementation of IAS data acquisition and IAS estimation when noise influence is included. IAS data is modelled as a frequency modulated signal of which the signal-to-noise ratio can be improved by using a high-resolution encoder. From this signal model and analysis, optimal configurations for IAS data collection are addressed for high accuracy IAS measurement. Simultaneously, a method based on analytic signal concept and fast Fourier transform is also developed for efficient and accurate estimation of IAS. Finally, a fault diagnosis is carried out on an electric induction motor driving system using IAS measurement. The diagnosis results show that using a high-resolution encoder and a long data stream can achieve noise reduction by more than 10 dB in the frequency range of interest, validating the model and algorithm developed. Moreover, the results demonstrate that IAS measurement outperforms conventional vibration in diagnosis of incipient faults of motor rotor bar defects and shaft misalignment.

CO 2 storage and potential fault instability in the St. Lawrence Lowlands sedimentary basin (Quebec, Canada): Insights from coupled reservoir-geomechanical modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konstantinovskaya, E.; Rutqvist, J.; Malo, M.

2014-01-21

In this paper, coupled reservoir-geomechanical (TOUGH-FLAC) modeling is applied for the first time to the St. Lawrence Lowlands region to evaluate the potential for shear failure along pre-existing high-angle normal faults, as well as the potential for tensile failure in the caprock units (Utica Shale and Lorraine Group). This activity is part of a general assessment of the potential for safe CO 2 injection into a sandstone reservoir (the Covey Hill Formation) within an Early Paleozoic sedimentary basin. Field and subsurface data are used to estimate the sealing properties of two reservoir-bounding faults (Yamaska and Champlain faults). The spatial variationsmore » in fluid pressure, effective minimum horizontal stress, and shear strain are calculated for different injection rates, using a simplified 2D geological model of the Becancour area, located ~110 km southwest of Quebec City. The simulation results show that initial fault permeability affects the timing, localization, rate, and length of fault shear slip. Contrary to the conventional view, our results suggest that shear failure may start earlier for a permeable fault than for a sealing fault, depending on the site-specific geologic setting. In simulations of a permeable fault, shear slip is nucleated along a 60 m long fault segment in a thin and brittle caprock unit (Utica Shale) trapped below a thicker and more ductile caprock unit (Lorraine Group) – and then subsequently progresses up to the surface. In the case of a sealing fault, shear failure occurs later in time and is localized along a fault segment (300 m) below the caprock units. The presence of the inclined low-permeable Yamaska Fault close to the injection well causes asymmetric fluid-pressure buildup and lateral migration of the CO 2 plume away from the fault, reducing the overall risk of CO 2 leakage along faults. Finally, fluid-pressure-induced tensile fracturing occurs only under extremely high injection rates and is localized below the caprock units, which remain intact, preventing upward CO 2 migration.« less

Power flow analysis and optimal locations of resistive type superconducting fault current limiters.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiuchang; Ruiz, Harold S; Geng, Jianzhao; Shen, Boyang; Fu, Lin; Zhang, Heng; Coombs, Tim A

2016-01-01

Based on conventional approaches for the integration of resistive-type superconducting fault current limiters (SFCLs) on electric distribution networks, SFCL models largely rely on the insertion of a step or exponential resistance that is determined by a predefined quenching time. In this paper, we expand the scope of the aforementioned models by considering the actual behaviour of an SFCL in terms of the temperature dynamic power-law dependence between the electrical field and the current density, characteristic of high temperature superconductors. Our results are compared to the step-resistance models for the sake of discussion and clarity of the conclusions. Both SFCL models were integrated into a power system model built based on the UK power standard, to study the impact of these protection strategies on the performance of the overall electricity network. As a representative renewable energy source, a 90 MVA wind farm was considered for the simulations. Three fault conditions were simulated, and the figures for the fault current reduction predicted by both fault current limiting models have been compared in terms of multiple current measuring points and allocation strategies. Consequently, we have shown that the incorporation of the E - J characteristics and thermal properties of the superconductor at the simulation level of electric power systems, is crucial for estimations of reliability and determining the optimal locations of resistive type SFCLs in distributed power networks. Our results may help decision making by distribution network operators regarding investment and promotion of SFCL technologies, as it is possible to determine the maximum number of SFCLs necessary to protect against different fault conditions at multiple locations.

Prediction of spectral acceleration response ordinates based on PGA attenuation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graizer, V.; Kalkan, E.

2009-01-01

Developed herein is a new peak ground acceleration (PGA)-based predictive model for 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (SA) ordinates of free-field horizontal component of ground motion from shallow-crustal earthquakes. The predictive model of ground motion spectral shape (i.e., normalized spectrum) is generated as a continuous function of few parameters. The proposed model eliminates the classical exhausted matrix of estimator coefficients, and provides significant ease in its implementation. It is structured on the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) database with a number of additions from recent Californian events including 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes. A unique feature of the model is its new functional form explicitly integrating PGA as a scaling factor. The spectral shape model is parameterized within an approximation function using moment magnitude, closest distance to the fault (fault distance) and VS30 (average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m) as independent variables. Mean values of its estimator coefficients were computed by fitting an approximation function to spectral shape of each record using robust nonlinear optimization. Proposed spectral shape model is independent of the PGA attenuation, allowing utilization of various PGA attenuation relations to estimate the response spectrum of earthquake recordings.

Characterizing the structural maturity of fault zones using high-resolution earthquake locations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, C.; Waldhauser, F.; Scholz, C. H.

2017-12-01

We use high-resolution earthquake locations to characterize the three-dimensional structure of active faults in California and how it evolves with fault structural maturity. We investigate the distribution of aftershocks of several recent large earthquakes that occurred on immature faults (i.e., slow moving and small cumulative displacement), such as the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers and 1999 (Mw7.1) Hector Mine events, and earthquakes that occurred on mature faults, such as the 1984 (Mw6.2) Morgan Hill and 2004 (Mw6.0) Parkfield events. Unlike previous studies which typically estimated the width of fault zones from the distribution of earthquakes perpendicular to the surface fault trace, we resolve fault zone widths with respect to the 3D fault surface estimated from principal component analysis of local seismicity. We find that the zone of brittle deformation around the fault core is narrower along mature faults compared to immature faults. We observe a rapid fall off of the number of events at a distance range of 70 - 100 m from the main fault surface of mature faults (140-200 m fault zone width), and 200-300 m from the fault surface of immature faults (400-600 m fault zone width). These observations are in good agreement with fault zone widths estimated from guided waves trapped in low velocity damage zones. The total width of the active zone of deformation surrounding the main fault plane reach 1.2 km and 2-4 km for mature and immature faults, respectively. The wider zone of deformation presumably reflects the increased heterogeneity in the stress field along complex and discontinuous faults strands that make up immature faults. In contrast, narrower deformation zones tend to align with well-defined fault planes of mature faults where most of the deformation is concentrated. Our results are in line with previous studies suggesting that surface fault traces become smoother, and thus fault zones simpler, as cumulative fault slip increases.

Block modeling of crustal deformation in Tierra del Fuego from GNSS velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, L.; Richter, A.; Fritsche, M.; Hormaechea, J. L.; Perdomo, R.; Dietrich, R.

2015-05-01

The Tierra del Fuego (TDF) main island is divided by a major transform boundary between the South America and Scotia tectonic plates. Using a block model, we infer slip rates, locking depths and inclinations of active faults in TDF from inversion of site velocities derived from Global Navigation Satellite System observations. We use interseismic velocities from 48 sites, obtained from field measurements spanning 20 years. Euler vectors consistent with a simple seismic cycle are estimated for each block. In addition, we introduce far-field information into the modeling by applying constraints on Euler vectors of major tectonic plates. The difference between model and observed surface deformation near the Magallanes Fagnano Fault System (MFS) is reduced by considering finite dip in the forward model. For this tectonic boundary global plate circuits models predict relative movements between 7 and 9 mm yr- 1, while our regional model indicates that a strike-slip rate of 5.9 ± 0.2 mm yr- 1 is accommodated across the MFS. Our results indicate faults dipping 66- 4+ 6° southward, locked to a depth of 11- 5+ 5 km, which are consistent with geological models for the MFS. However, normal slip also dominates the fault perpendicular motion throughout the eastern MFS, with a maximum rate along the Fagnano Lake.

Transform fault earthquakes in the North Atlantic: Source mechanisms and depth of faulting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

1987-01-01

The centroid depths and source mechanisms of 12 large earthquakes on transform faults of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge were determined from an inversion of long-period body waveforms. The earthquakes occurred on the Gibbs, Oceanographer, Hayes, Kane, 15 deg 20 min, and Vema transforms. The depth extent of faulting during each earthquake was estimated from the centroid depth and the fault width. The source mechanisms for all events in this study display the strike slip motion expected for transform fault earthquakes; slip vector azimuths agree to 2 to 3 deg of the local strike of the zone of active faulting. The only anomalies in mechanism were for two earthquakes near the western end of the Vema transform which occurred on significantly nonvertical fault planes. Secondary faulting, occurring either precursory to or near the end of the main episode of strike-slip rupture, was observed for 5 of the 12 earthquakes. For three events the secondary faulting was characterized by reverse motion on fault planes striking oblique to the trend of the transform. In all three cases, the site of secondary reverse faulting is near a compression jog in the current trace of the active transform fault zone. No evidence was found to support the conclusions of Engeln, Wiens, and Stein that oceanic transform faults in general are either hotter than expected from current thermal models or weaker than normal oceanic lithosphere.

Effects of Faults on Petroleum Fluid Dynamics, Borderland Basins of Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, B.; Garven, G.; Boles, J. R.

2012-12-01

Multiphase flow modeling provides a useful quantitative tool for understanding crustal processes such as petroleum migration in geological systems, and also for characterizing subsurface environmental issues such as carbon sequestration in sedimentary basins. However, accurate modeling of multi-fluid behavior is often difficult because of the various coupled and nonlinear physics affecting multiphase fluid saturation and migration, including effects of capillarity and relative permeability, anisotropy and heterogeneity of the medium, and the effects of pore pressure, composition, and temperature on fluid properties. Regional fault structures also play a strong role in controlling fluid pathlines and mobility, so considering hydrogeologic effects of these structures is critical for testing exploration concepts, and for predicting the fate of injected fluids. To address these issues on spatially large and long temporal scales, we have developed a 2-D multiphase fluid flow model, coupled to heat flow, using a hybrid finite element and finite volume method. We have had good success in applying the multiphase flow model to fundamental issues of long-distance petroleum migration and accumulation in the Los Angeles basin, which is intensely faulted and disturbed by transpressional tectonic stresses, and host to the world's richest oil accumulation. To constrain the model, known subsurface geology and fault structures were rendered using geophysical logs from industry exploration boreholes and published seismic profiles. Plausible multiphase model parameters were estimated, either from known fault permeability measurements in similar strata in the Santa Barbara basin, and from known formation properties obtained from numerous oil fields in the Los Angeles basin. Our simulations show that a combination of continuous hydrocarbon generation and primary migration from upper Miocene source rocks in the central LA basin synclinal region, coupled with a subsiding basin fluid dynamics, favored the massive accumulation and alignment of hydrocarbon pools along the Newport-Inglewood fault zone (NIFZ). According to our multiphase flow calculations, the maximum formation water velocities within fault zones likely ranged between 1 ~ 2 m/yr during the middle Miocene to Pliocene (13 to 2.6 Ma). The estimated time for long-distance (~ 25 km) petroleum migration from source beds in the central basin to oil fields along the NIFZ is approximately 150,000 ~ 250,000 years, depending on the effective permeability assigned to the faults and adjacent interbedded sandstone and siltstone "petroleum aquifers". With an average long-distance flow rate (~ 0.6 m/yr) and fault permeability of 100 millidarcys (10-13 m2), the total petroleum oil of Inglewood oil field of 450 million barrels (~ 1.6 × 105 m3) would have accumulated rather quickly, likely over 25,000 years or less. The results also suggest that besides the thermal and structural history of the basin, the fault permeability, capillary pressure, and the configuration of aquifer and aquitard layers played an important role in controlling petroleum migration rates, patterns of flow, and the overall fluid mechanics of petroleum accumulation.

Preliminary deformation model for National Seismic Hazard map of Indonesia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Sarsito, Dina

Preliminary deformation model for the Indonesia’s National Seismic Hazard (NSH) map is constructed as the block rotation and strain accumulation function at the elastic half-space. Deformation due to rigid body motion is estimated by rotating six tectonic blocks in Indonesia. The interseismic deformation due to subduction is estimated by assuming coupling on subduction interface while deformation at active fault is calculated by assuming each of the fault‘s segment slips beneath a locking depth or in combination with creeping in a shallower part. This research shows that rigid body motion dominates the deformation pattern with magnitude more than 15 mm/year, except inmore » the narrow area near subduction zones and active faults where significant deformation reach to 25 mm/year.« less

3D Reservoir Modeling of Semutang Gas Field: A lonely Gas field in Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt, with Integrated Well Log, 2D Seismic Reflectivity and Attributes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehin, Z.; Woobaidullah, A. S. M.; Snigdha, S. S.

2015-12-01

Bengal Basin with its prolific gas rich province provides needed energy to Bangladesh. Present energy situation demands more Hydrocarbon explorations. Only 'Semutang' is discovered in the high amplitude structures, where rest of are in the gentle to moderate structures of western part of Chittagong-Tripura Fold Belt. But it has some major thrust faults which have strongly breached the reservoir zone. The major objectives of this research are interpretation of gas horizons and faults, then to perform velocity model, structural and property modeling to obtain reservoir properties. It is needed to properly identify the faults and reservoir heterogeneities. 3D modeling is widely used to reveal the subsurface structure in faulted zone where planning and development drilling is major challenge. Thirteen 2D seismic and six well logs have been used to identify six gas bearing horizons and a network of faults and to map the structure at reservoir level. Variance attributes were used to identify faults. Velocity model is performed for domain conversion. Synthetics were prepared from two wells where sonic and density logs are available. Well to seismic tie at reservoir zone shows good match with Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator on seismic section. Vsh, porosity, water saturation and permeability have been calculated and various cross plots among porosity logs have been shown. Structural modeling is used to make zone and layering accordance with minimum sand thickness. Fault model shows the possible fault network, those liable for several dry wells. Facies model have been constrained with Sequential Indicator Simulation method to show the facies distribution along the depth surfaces. Petrophysical models have been prepared with Sequential Gaussian Simulation to estimate petrophysical parameters away from the existing wells to other parts of the field and to observe heterogeneities in reservoir. Average porosity map for each gas zone were constructed. The outcomes of the research are an improved subsurface image of the seismic data (model), a porosity prediction for the reservoir, a reservoir quality map and also a fault map. The result shows a complex geologic model which may contribute to the economic potential of the field. For better understanding, 3D seismic survey, uncertainty and attributes analysis are necessary.

Seismic Hazard Analysis for Armenia and its Surrounding Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E.; Shen-Tu, B.; Mahdyiar, M.; Karakhanyan, A.; Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Gee, R. C.

2017-12-01

The Republic of Armenia is located within the central part of a large, 800 km wide, intracontinental collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Active deformation occurs along numerous structures in the form of faulting, folding, and volcanism distributed throughout the entire zone from the Bitlis-Zargos suture belt to the Greater Caucasus Mountains and between the relatively rigid Back Sea and Caspian Sea blocks without any single structure that can be claimed as predominant. In recent years, significant work has been done on mapping active faults, compiling and reviewing historic and paleoseismological studies in the region, especially in Armenia; these recent research contributions have greatly improved our understanding of the seismogenic sources and their characteristics. In this study we performed a seismic hazard analysis for Armenia and its surrounding areas using the latest detailed geological and paleoseismological information on active faults, strain rates estimated from kinematic modeling of GPS data and all available historic earthquake data. The seismic source model uses a combination of characteristic earthquake and gridded seismicity models to take advantage of the detailed knowledge of the known faults while acknowledging the distributed deformation and regional tectonic environment of the collision zone. In addition, the fault model considers earthquake ruptures that include single and multi-segment or fault rupture scenarios with earthquakes that can rupture any part of a multiple segment fault zone. The ground motion model uses a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) selected from a pool of GMPEs based on the assessment of each GMPE against the available strong motion data in the region. The hazard is computed in the GEM's OpenQuake engine. We will present final hazard results and discuss the uncertainties associated with various input data and their impact on the hazard at various locations.

Magnitude and Surface Rupture Length of Prehistoric Upper Crustal Earthquakes in the Puget Lowland, Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherrod, B. L.; Styron, R. H.

2016-12-01

Paleoseismic studies documented prehistoric earthquakes after the last glaciation ended 15 ka on 13 upper-crustal fault zones in the Cascadia fore arc. These fault zones are a consequence of north-directed fore arc block migration manifesting as a series of bedrock uplifts and intervening structural basins in the southern Salish Sea lowland between Vancouver, B.C. to the north and Olympia, WA to the south, and bounded on the east and west by the Cascade Mountains and Olympic Mountains, respectively. Our dataset uses published information and includes 27 earthquakes tabulated from observations of postglacial deformation at 63 sites. Stratigraphic offsets along faults consist of two types of measurements: 1) vertical separation of strata along faults observed in fault scarp excavations, and 2) estimates from coastal uplift and subsidence. We used probabilistic methods to estimate past rupture magnitudes and surface rupture length (SRL), applying empirical observations from modern earthquakes and point measurements from paleoseismic sites (Biasi and Weldon, 2006). Estimates of paleoearthquake magnitude ranged between M 6.5 and M 7.5. SRL estimates varied between 20 and 90 km. Paleoearthquakes on the Seattle fault zone and Saddle Mountain West fault about 1100 years ago were outliers in our analysis. Large offsets observed for these two earthquakes implies a M 7.8 and 200 km SRL, given the average observed ratio of slip/SRL in modern earthquakes. The actual mapped traces of these faults are less than 200km, implying these earthquakes had an unusually high static stress drop or, in the case of the Seattle fault, splay faults may have accentuated uplift in the hanging wall. Refined calculations incorporating fault area may change these magnitude and SRL estimates. Biasi, G.P., and Weldon, R.J., 2006, Estimating Surface Rupture Length and Magnitude of Paleoearthquakes from Point Measurements of Rupture Displacement: B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 1612-1623.

Interpretation of Self-Potential anomalies for investigating fault using the Levenberg-Marquardt method: a study case in Pinggirsari, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fajriani; Srigutomo, Wahyu; Pratomo, Prihandhanu M.

2017-04-01

Self-Potential (SP) method is frequently used to identify subsurface structures based on electrical properties. For fixed geometry problems, SP method is related to simple geometrical shapes of causative bodies such as a sphere, cylinder, and sheet. This approach is implemented to determine the value of parameters such as shape, depth, polarization angle, and electric dipole moment. In this study, the technique was applied for investigation of fault, where the fault is considered as resembling the shape of a sheet representing dike or fault. The investigated fault is located at Pinggirsari village, Bandung regency, West Java, Indonesia. The observed SP anomalies that were measured allegedly above the fault were inverted to estimate all the fault parameters through inverse modeling scheme using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. The inversion scheme was first tested on a synthetic model, where a close agreement between the test parameters and the calculated parameters was achieved. Finally, the schema was carried out to invert the real observed SP anomalies. The results show that the presence of the fault was detected beneath the surface having electric dipole moment K = 41.5 mV, half-fault dimension a = 34 m, depth of the sheet’s center h = 14.6 m, the location of the fault’s center xo = 478.25 m, and the polarization angle to the horizontal plane θ = 334.52° in a clockwise direction.

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.; Tang, Dong

1993-01-01

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Distributing Earthquakes Among California's Faults: A Binary Integer Programming Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2016-12-01

Statement of the problem is simple: given regional seismicity specified by a Gutenber-Richter (G-R) relation, how are earthquakes distributed to match observed fault-slip rates? The objective is to determine the magnitude-frequency relation on individual faults. The California statewide G-R b-value and a-value are estimated from historical seismicity, with the a-value accounting for off-fault seismicity. UCERF3 consensus slip rates are used, based on geologic and geodetic data and include estimates of coupling coefficients. The binary integer programming (BIP) problem is set up such that each earthquake from a synthetic catalog spanning millennia can occur at any location along any fault. The decision vector, therefore, consists of binary variables, with values equal to one indicating the location of each earthquake that results in an optimal match of slip rates, in an L1-norm sense. Rupture area and slip associated with each earthquake are determined from a magnitude-area scaling relation. Uncertainty bounds on the UCERF3 slip rates provide explicit minimum and maximum constraints to the BIP model, with the former more important to feasibility of the problem. There is a maximum magnitude limit associated with each fault, based on fault length, providing an implicit constraint. Solution of integer programming problems with a large number of variables (>105 in this study) has been possible only since the late 1990s. In addition to the classic branch-and-bound technique used for these problems, several other algorithms have been recently developed, including pre-solving, sifting, cutting planes, heuristics, and parallelization. An optimal solution is obtained using a state-of-the-art BIP solver for M≥6 earthquakes and California's faults with slip-rates > 1 mm/yr. Preliminary results indicate a surprising diversity of on-fault magnitude-frequency relations throughout the state.

A Fault Location Algorithm for Two-End Series-Compensated Double-Circuit Transmission Lines Using the Distributed Parameter Line Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Ning; Gombos, Gergely; Mousavi, Mirrasoul J.

A new fault location algorithm for two-end series-compensated double-circuit transmission lines utilizing unsynchronized two-terminal current phasors and local voltage phasors is presented in this paper. The distributed parameter line model is adopted to take into account the shunt capacitance of the lines. The mutual coupling between the parallel lines in the zero-sequence network is also considered. The boundary conditions under different fault types are used to derive the fault location formulation. The developed algorithm directly uses the local voltage phasors on the line side of series compensation (SC) and metal oxide varistor (MOV). However, when potential transformers are not installedmore » on the line side of SC and MOVs for the local terminal, these measurements can be calculated from the local terminal bus voltage and currents by estimating the voltages across the SC and MOVs. MATLAB SimPowerSystems is used to generate cases under diverse fault conditions to evaluating accuracy. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is qualified for practical implementation.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarrack, A.G.

The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses tomore » calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).« less

Field characterization of elastic properties across a fault zone reactivated by fluid injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeanne, Pierre; Guglielmi, Yves; Rutqvist, Jonny

In this paper, we studied the elastic properties of a fault zone intersecting the Opalinus Clay formation at 300 m depth in the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory (Switzerland). Four controlled water injection experiments were performed in borehole straddle intervals set at successive locations across the fault zone. A three-component displacement sensor, which allowed capturing the borehole wall movements during injection, was used to estimate the elastic properties of representative locations across the fault zone, from the host rock to the damage zone to the fault core. Young's moduli were estimated by both an analytical approach and numerical finite differencemore » modeling. Results show a decrease in Young's modulus from the host rock to the damage zone by a factor of 5 and from the damage zone to the fault core by a factor of 2. In the host rock, our results are in reasonable agreement with laboratory data showing a strong elastic anisotropy characterized by the direction of the plane of isotropy parallel to the laminar structure of the shale formation. In the fault zone, strong rotations of the direction of anisotropy can be observed. Finally, the plane of isotropy can be oriented either parallel to bedding (when few discontinuities are present), parallel to the direction of the main fracture family intersecting the zone, and possibly oriented parallel or perpendicular to the fractures critically oriented for shear reactivation (when repeated past rupture along this plane has created a zone).« less

Field characterization of elastic properties across a fault zone reactivated by fluid injection

DOE PAGES

Jeanne, Pierre; Guglielmi, Yves; Rutqvist, Jonny; ...

2017-08-12

In this paper, we studied the elastic properties of a fault zone intersecting the Opalinus Clay formation at 300 m depth in the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory (Switzerland). Four controlled water injection experiments were performed in borehole straddle intervals set at successive locations across the fault zone. A three-component displacement sensor, which allowed capturing the borehole wall movements during injection, was used to estimate the elastic properties of representative locations across the fault zone, from the host rock to the damage zone to the fault core. Young's moduli were estimated by both an analytical approach and numerical finite differencemore » modeling. Results show a decrease in Young's modulus from the host rock to the damage zone by a factor of 5 and from the damage zone to the fault core by a factor of 2. In the host rock, our results are in reasonable agreement with laboratory data showing a strong elastic anisotropy characterized by the direction of the plane of isotropy parallel to the laminar structure of the shale formation. In the fault zone, strong rotations of the direction of anisotropy can be observed. Finally, the plane of isotropy can be oriented either parallel to bedding (when few discontinuities are present), parallel to the direction of the main fracture family intersecting the zone, and possibly oriented parallel or perpendicular to the fractures critically oriented for shear reactivation (when repeated past rupture along this plane has created a zone).« less

Multiple resolution chirp reflectometry for fault localization and diagnosis in a high voltage cable in automotive electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Seung Jin; Lee, Chun Ku; Shin, Yong-June; Park, Jin Bae

2016-12-01

A multiple chirp reflectometry system with a fault estimation process is proposed to obtain multiple resolution and to measure the degree of fault in a target cable. A multiple resolution algorithm has the ability to localize faults, regardless of fault location. The time delay information, which is derived from the normalized cross-correlation between the incident signal and bandpass filtered reflected signals, is converted to a fault location and cable length. The in-phase and quadrature components are obtained by lowpass filtering of the mixed signal of the incident signal and the reflected signal. Based on in-phase and quadrature components, the reflection coefficient is estimated by the proposed fault estimation process including the mixing and filtering procedure. Also, the measurement uncertainty for this experiment is analyzed according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. To verify the performance of the proposed method, we conduct comparative experiments to detect and measure faults under different conditions. Considering the installation environment of the high voltage cable used in an actual vehicle, target cable length and fault position are designed. To simulate the degree of fault, the variety of termination impedance (10 Ω , 30 Ω , 50 Ω , and 1 \\text{k} Ω ) are used and estimated by the proposed method in this experiment. The proposed method demonstrates advantages in that it has multiple resolution to overcome the blind spot problem, and can assess the state of the fault.

On the Possibility of Estimation of the Earth Crust's Properties from the Observations of Electric Field of Electrokinetic Origin, Generated by Tidal Deformation within the Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, D. A.; Gokhberg, M. B.

2018-05-01

A 2-D boundary problem formulation in terms of pore pressure in Biot poroelasticity model is discussed, with application to a vertical contact model mechanically excited by a lunar-solar tidal deformation wave, representing a fault zone structure. A problem parametrization in terms of permeability and Biot's modulus contrasts is proposed and its numerical solution is obtained for a series of models differing in the values of the above parameters. The behavior of pore pressure and its gradient is analyzed. From those, the electric field of the electrokinetic nature is calculated. The possibilities of estimation of the elastic properties and permeability of geological formations from the observations of the horizontal and vertical electric field measured inside the medium and at the earth's surface near the block boundary are discussed.

Uncertainty analysis in fault tree models with dependent basic events.

PubMed

Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

2013-06-01

In general, two types of dependence need to be considered when estimating the probability of the top event (TE) of a fault tree (FT): "objective" dependence between the (random) occurrences of different basic events (BEs) in the FT and "state-of-knowledge" (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs of the FT model. In this article, we study the effects on the TE probability of objective and epistemic dependences. The well-known Frèchet bounds and the distribution envelope determination (DEnv) method are used to model all kinds of (possibly unknown) objective and epistemic dependences, respectively. For exemplification, the analyses are carried out on a FT with six BEs. Results show that both types of dependence significantly affect the TE probability; however, the effects of epistemic dependence are likely to be overwhelmed by those of objective dependence (if present). © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Re-examination of the Present Stress State of the Atera Fault, Central Japan, Based on the Calibrated Crustal Stress Data of Hydraulic Fracturing Test by Measuring the Tensile Strength of Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, F.; Mizoguchi, K.; Fukuyama, E.; Omura, K.

2008-12-01

To infer the activity and physical state of intraplate faults in Japan, we re-examined the crustal stress with the hydraulic fracturing test by measuring the tensile strength of rocks. The tensile strength was measured by fracturing hollow cylindrical rock samples (inner and outer radius are 25.0-25.2 mm and 55.1-101.5 mm, respectively, length is 137.0-140.1 mm) which were obtained close to the in situ stress measurement locations by pressurizing the inner hole of the sample. Confining pressure is not applied to the samples in this test. To check the reliability and accuracy of this test, we conducted similar experiments with the standard rock sample (Inada granite) whose physical property is well known. Then, we measured the tensile strength of all available core samples including the Atera fault (at Ueno, Fukuoka, and Hatajiri), the Atotsugawa fault, and the Nojima fault (at Hirabayashi, Iwaya and Kabutoyama), in central Japan, which had been obtained by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) by the stress measurement with the hydraulic fracturing method. The measured tensile strength data reveals that the in situ re- opening pressure, which is one of the parameters needed for the determination of the maximum in situ horizontal stress, was obviously biased. We re-estimated the re-opening pressure using the measured tensile strength and the in situ breakdown pressure, and re-calculated the in situ stress around the Atera fault. Although the past dislocation of the Atera fault has been considered to be left lateral from the geographical features around the fault, the re-estimated stress suggests that the present dislocation of the Atera fault is right lateral. And the shear stress decreases from the fault. The right lateral dislocation is also supported by the present-day horizontal crustal deformation observed by the triangular and GPS surveys by Geographical Survey Institute in Japan. Therefore, the dislocation direction of the Atera fault seems to change from left lateral to right lateral some time ago. The amount of accumulated right lateral dislocation estimated from the stress data with the dislocation model by Okada (1992) is 2.2-2.6 m. Because the current slip rate from the GPS survey is 2.1-2.3 mm/yr, the accumulation period of the dislocation becomes 960-1240 years if the slip rate is stable. This estimation suggests that during the last 1586 Tensho earthquake the Atera fault dislocated right laterally.

Comparison of actual and seismologically inferred stress drops in dynamic models of microseismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. Y.; Lapusta, N.

2017-12-01

Estimating source parameters for small earthquakes is commonly based on either Brune or Madariaga source models. These models assume circular rupture that starts from the center of a fault and spreads axisymmetrically with a constant rupture speed. The resulting stress drops are moment-independent, with large scatter. However, more complex source behaviors are commonly discovered by finite-fault inversions for both large and small earthquakes, including directivity, heterogeneous slip, and non-circular shapes. Recent studies (Noda, Lapusta, and Kanamori, GJI, 2013; Kaneko and Shearer, GJI, 2014; JGR, 2015) have shown that slip heterogeneity and directivity can result in large discrepancies between the actual and estimated stress drops. We explore the relation between the actual and seismologically estimated stress drops for several types of numerically produced microearthquakes. For example, an asperity-type circular fault patch with increasing normal stress towards the middle of the patch, surrounded by a creeping region, is a potentially common microseismicity source. In such models, a number of events rupture the portion of the patch near its circumference, producing ring-like ruptures, before a patch-spanning event occurs. We calculate the far-field synthetic waveforms for our simulated sources and estimate their spectral properties. The distribution of corner frequencies over the focal sphere is markedly different for the ring-like sources compared to the Madariaga model. Furthermore, most waveforms for the ring-like sources are better fitted by a high-frequency fall-off rate different from the commonly assumed value of 2 (from the so-called omega-squared model), with the average value over the focal sphere being 1.5. The application of Brune- or Madariaga-type analysis to these sources results in the stress drops estimates different from the actual stress drops by a factor of up to 125 in the models we considered. We will report on our current studies of other types of seismic sources, such as repeating earthquakes and foreshock-like events, and whether the potentially realistic and common sources different from the standard Brune and Madariaga models can be identified from their focal spectral signatures and studied using a more tailored seismological analysis.

Contemporary horizontal crustal movement estimation for northwestern Vietnam inferred from repeated GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, Nguyen Anh; Sagiya, Takeshi; Kimata, Fumiaki; To, Tran Dinh; Hai, Vy Quoc; Cong, Duong Chi; Binh, Nguyen Xuan; Xuyen, Nguyen Dinh

2013-12-01

We present a horizontal velocity field determined from a GPS network with 22 sites surveyed from 2001 to 2012 in northwestern Vietnam. The velocity is accurately estimated at each site by fitting a linear trend to each coordinate time series, after accounting for coseismic displacements caused by the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes using static fault models. Considering the coseismic effects of the earthquakes, the motion of northwestern Vietnam is 34.3 ± 0.7 mm/yr at an azimuth of N108° ± 0.7°E in ITRF2008. This motion is close to, but slightly different from, that of the South China block. The area is in a transition zone between this block, the Sundaland block, and the Baoshan sub-block. At the local scale, a detailed estimation of the crustal deformation across major fault zones is geodetically revealed for the first time. We identify a locking depth of 15.3 ± 9.8 km with an accumulating left-lateral slip rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr for the Dien Bien Phu fault, and a shallow locking depth with a right-lateral slip rate of 1.0 ± 0.6 mm/yr for the Son La and Da River faults.

Mapping of the surface rupture induced by the M 7.3 Kumamoto Earthquake along the Eastern segment of Futagawa fault using image correlation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekhtari, N.; Glennie, C. L.; Fielding, E. J.; Liang, C.

2016-12-01

Near field surface deformation is vital to understanding the shallow fault physics of earthquakes but near-field deformation measurements are often sparse or not reliable. In this study, we use the Co-seismic Image Correlation (COSI-Corr) technique to map the near-field surface deformation caused by the M 7.3 April 16, 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, Kyushu, Japan. The surface rupture around the Eastern segment of Futagawa fault is mapped using a pair of panchromatic 1.5 meter resolution SPOT 7 images. These images were acquired on January 16 and April 29, 2016 (3 months before and 13 days after the earthquake respectively) with close to nadir (less than 1.5 degree off nadir) viewing angle. The two images are ortho-rectified using SRTM Digital Elevation Model and further co-registered using tie points far away from the rupture field. Then the COSI-Corr technique is utilized to produce an estimated surface displacement map, and a horizontal displacement vector field is calculated which supplies a seamless estimate of near field displacement measurements along the Eastern segment of the Futagawa fault. The COSI-Corr estimated displacements are then compared to other existing displacement observations from InSAR, GPS and field observations.

Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Heaton, T.H.

2008-01-01

We study how enforcing self-consistency in the statistical properties of the preshear and postshear stress on a fault can be used to constrain fault constitutive behavior beyond that required to produce a desired spatial and temporal evolution of slip in a single event. We explore features of rupture dynamics that (1) lead to slip heterogeneity in earthquake ruptures and (2) maintain these conditions following rupture, so that the stress field is compatible with the generation of aftershocks and facilitates heterogeneous slip in subsequent events. Our three-dimensional fmite element simulations of magnitude 7 events on a vertical, planar strike-slip fault show that the conditions that lead to slip heterogeneity remain in place after large events when the dynamic stress drop (initial shear stress) and breakdown work (fracture energy) are spatially heterogeneous. In these models the breakdown work is on the order of MJ/m2, which is comparable to the radiated energy. These conditions producing slip heterogeneity also tend to produce narrower slip pulses independent of a slip rate dependence in the fault constitutive model. An alternative mechanism for generating these confined slip pulses appears to be fault constitutive models that have a stronger rate dependence, which also makes them difficult to implement in numerical models. We hypothesize that self-consistent ruptures could also be produced by very narrow slip pulses propagating in a self-sustaining heterogeneous stress field with breakdown work comparable to fracture energy estimates of kJ/M2. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Buried shallow fault slip from the South Napa earthquake revealed by near-field geodesy

PubMed Central

Brooks, Benjamin A.; Minson, Sarah E.; Glennie, Craig L.; Nevitt, Johanna M.; Dawson, Tim; Rubin, Ron; Ericksen, Todd L.; Lockner, David; Hudnut, Kenneth; Langenheim, Victoria; Lutz, Andrew; Mareschal, Maxime; Murray, Jessica; Schwartz, David; Zaccone, Dana

2017-01-01

Earthquake-related fault slip in the upper hundreds of meters of Earth’s surface has remained largely unstudied because of challenges measuring deformation in the near field of a fault rupture. We analyze centimeter-scale accuracy mobile laser scanning (MLS) data of deformed vine rows within ±300 m of the principal surface expression of the M (magnitude) 6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake. Rather than assuming surface displacement equivalence to fault slip, we invert the near-field data with a model that allows for, but does not require, the fault to be buried below the surface. The inversion maps the position on a preexisting fault plane of a slip front that terminates ~3 to 25 m below the surface coseismically and within a few hours postseismically. The lack of surface-breaching fault slip is verified by two trenches. We estimate near-surface slip ranging from ~0.5 to 1.25 m. Surface displacement can underestimate fault slip by as much as 30%. This implies that similar biases could be present in short-term geologic slip rates used in seismic hazard analyses. Along strike and downdip, we find deficits in slip: The along-strike deficit is erased after ~1 month by afterslip. We find no evidence of off-fault deformation and conclude that the downdip shallow slip deficit for this event is likely an artifact. As near-field geodetic data rapidly proliferate and will become commonplace, we suggest that analyses of near-surface fault rupture should also use more sophisticated mechanical models and subsurface geomechanical tests. PMID:28782026

Buried shallow fault slip from the South Napa earthquake revealed by near-field geodesy.

PubMed

Brooks, Benjamin A; Minson, Sarah E; Glennie, Craig L; Nevitt, Johanna M; Dawson, Tim; Rubin, Ron; Ericksen, Todd L; Lockner, David; Hudnut, Kenneth; Langenheim, Victoria; Lutz, Andrew; Mareschal, Maxime; Murray, Jessica; Schwartz, David; Zaccone, Dana

2017-07-01

Earthquake-related fault slip in the upper hundreds of meters of Earth's surface has remained largely unstudied because of challenges measuring deformation in the near field of a fault rupture. We analyze centimeter-scale accuracy mobile laser scanning (MLS) data of deformed vine rows within ±300 m of the principal surface expression of the M (magnitude) 6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake. Rather than assuming surface displacement equivalence to fault slip, we invert the near-field data with a model that allows for, but does not require, the fault to be buried below the surface. The inversion maps the position on a preexisting fault plane of a slip front that terminates ~3 to 25 m below the surface coseismically and within a few hours postseismically. The lack of surface-breaching fault slip is verified by two trenches. We estimate near-surface slip ranging from ~0.5 to 1.25 m. Surface displacement can underestimate fault slip by as much as 30%. This implies that similar biases could be present in short-term geologic slip rates used in seismic hazard analyses. Along strike and downdip, we find deficits in slip: The along-strike deficit is erased after ~1 month by afterslip. We find no evidence of off-fault deformation and conclude that the downdip shallow slip deficit for this event is likely an artifact. As near-field geodetic data rapidly proliferate and will become commonplace, we suggest that analyses of near-surface fault rupture should also use more sophisticated mechanical models and subsurface geomechanical tests.

Buried shallow fault slip from the South Napa earthquake revealed by near-field geodesy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Benjamin A.; Minson, Sarah E.; Glennie, Craig L.; Nevitt, Johanna; Dawson, Timothy E.; Rubin, Ron S.; Ericksen, Todd; Lockner, David A.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Langenheim, Victoria; Lutz, Andrew; Murray, Jessica R.; Schwartz, David P.; Zaccone, Dana

2017-01-01

Earthquake-related fault slip in the upper hundreds of meters of Earth’s surface has remained largely unstudied because of challenges measuring deformation in the near field of a fault rupture. We analyze centimeter-scale accuracy mobile laser scanning (MLS) data of deformed vine rows within ±300 m of the principal surface expression of the M (magnitude) 6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake. Rather than assuming surface displacement equivalence to fault slip, we invert the near-field data with a model that allows for, but does not require, the fault to be buried below the surface. The inversion maps the position on a preexisting fault plane of a slip front that terminates ~3 to 25 m below the surface coseismically and within a few hours postseismically. The lack of surface-breaching fault slip is verified by two trenches. We estimate near-surface slip ranging from ~0.5 to 1.25 m. Surface displacement can underestimate fault slip by as much as 30%. This implies that similar biases could be present in short-term geologic slip rates used in seismic hazard analyses. Along strike and downdip, we find deficits in slip: The along-strike deficit is erased after ~1 month by afterslip. We find no evidence of off-fault deformation and conclude that the downdip shallow slip deficit for this event is likely an artifact. As near-field geodetic data rapidly proliferate and will become commonplace, we suggest that analyses of near-surface fault rupture should also use more sophisticated mechanical models and subsurface geomechanical tests.

Elastic block and strain modeling of GPS data around the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yanchuan; Shan, Xinjian; Qu, Chunyan; Zhang, Yingfeng; Song, Xiaogang; Jiang, Yu; Zhang, Guohong; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Gong, Wenyu; Gan, Weijun; Wang, Chisheng

2017-12-01

Based on the dense GPS velocity field in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau from 1999 to 2016, we have produced the deformation and strain characteristics of the Haiyuan fault and the Liupanshan fault. Estimated long-term slip rate along the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault zones show a gradual decrease from 6.4 ± 1.6 mm/yr at the Tuolaishan fault to 2.9 ± 1.2 mm/yr at the Southern Liupanshan fault. Left-lateral thrusting movement was inverted for the Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault (XS-TJS), which has an average slip rate of 2.1 ± 3.4 mm/yr during the study period. We also calculated the heterogeneous distribution of interseismic coupling along the fault zones. Our result also shows the locking depth of the Tianzhu seismic gap is ∼22 km. The slip rate deficit, the seismic moment accumulation rate, and the Coulomb stress accumulation rate are high on the fault planes, whereas the second invariant of the strain rate is low at the surface. The Liupanshan fault is locked to a depth of ∼23 km, and the corresponding seismic moment accumulation rate on the fault plane is high, while the strain rate at the surface is low. The accumulated strain along the Tianzhu seismic gap and the Liupanshan fault could be balanced by earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw7.9 and Mw7.4, considering the absence of large earthquakes over the last 1000 years and 1400 years respectively. The Haiyuan segments had ruptured during 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, and the estimated locking depth for period 1999-2016 is 5-10 km. Its seismic moment accumulation rate at depth is low and the strain rate at the surface is high. Our result indicates that 70% of the strike-slip along the Haiyuan segments transforms into thrusting along the Liupanshan fault, while the remaining 30% is related to the orogeny of the Liupanshan. For slip between the Haiyuan fault and the XS-TJS, about 27-34% of the slip is partitioned on the XS-TJS.

TEM prospection on quaternary faults: the case of San Ramón Fault (SRF), Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estay, N. P.; Yanez, G. A.; Maringue, J. I.

2016-12-01

Quaternary faults are relevant study objects in geosciences to better estimation of seismic risk. Nowadays main efforts are focused on the improvement of paleoseismology and geophysics techniques. At this regard, we present here a TEM prospection of the San Ramón quaternary fault in the southern Andes. This fault has no record of historic activation, however, given its proximity to the Chilean capital, hazardous estimate is mandatory. Evidences of the SRF are restricted to geomorphologic features, and associated secondary faults on the hanging wall block, but any outcrop of the main fault have been identified. To observe the main fault in the basement rock, cover by a 30-100 m sedimentary basin, we carried out a TEM experiment. The best advantage of the TEM methodology compared to other near-surface electrical methods is it capacity to reach greater penetration depth compared to its spatial sampling rate. Taking this advantage, we define a 25x25 m transmitter loop (Tx) and 5x5 m receiver loop (Rx), allowing the suitable resolution to observe the fault core. To reach a deeper penetration depth but keeping high resolution of the shallow parts, we made two complementary measurements, the first with one-turn transmitter loop, and the second with 4-turn transmitter loops, to resolve the early and late times properly. As result we define vertical profiles of 100-150m depth, and including 48 measures (24 of one-turn transmitter loop, and 24 of four-turn transmitter loop), the resulting pseudo 2D image is a 500m profile with depth extent of 150m. In this section we can observe different resistivity domain, with a horizontal continuity in many measures. The experiment allows to cross the sedimentary cover, and observe the top of the basement rock. In the rock domain, it can be observed a high resistivity body, interpreted as a pristine rock, and some extremely low resistivity bodies, that are interpreted as a fractured rock saturated with water, and eventually mapping a fossil/actual hydrothermal flow. These fractured zone is interpreted as the main trace of the fault. Finally, this TEM experiment allow to estimate the associated cumulative slip, as well as the fault geometry of the first 150m, useful for BEM or FEM seismic modeling.

Are Physics-Based Simulators Ready for Prime Time? Comparisons of RSQSim with UCERF3 and Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, K. R.; Shaw, B. E.; Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.

2017-12-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is typically performed by combining an earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) with a set of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). ERFs have typically relied on observed fault slip rates and scaling relationships to estimate the rate of large earthquakes on pre-defined fault segments, either ignoring or relying on expert opinion to set the rates of multi-fault or multi-segment ruptures. Version 3 of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) is a significant step forward, replacing expert opinion and fault segmentation with an inversion approach that matches observations better than prior models while incorporating multi-fault ruptures. UCERF3 is a statistical model, however, and doesn't incorporate the physics of earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation, and stress transfer. We examine the feasibility of replacing UCERF3, or components therein, with physics-based rupture simulators such as the Rate-State Earthquake Simulator (RSQSim), developed by Dieterich & Richards-Dinger (2010). RSQSim simulations on the UCERF3 fault system produce catalogs of seismicity that match long term rates on major faults, and produce remarkable agreement with UCERF3 when carried through to PSHA calculations. Averaged over a representative set of sites, the RSQSim-UCERF3 hazard-curve differences are comparable to the small differences between UCERF3 and its predecessor, UCERF2. The hazard-curve agreement between the empirical and physics-based models provides substantial support for the PSHA methodology. RSQSim catalogs include many complex multi-fault ruptures, which we compare with the UCERF3 rupture-plausibility metrics as well as recent observations. Complications in generating physically plausible kinematic descriptions of multi-fault ruptures have thus far prevented us from using UCERF3 in the CyberShake physics-based PSHA platform, which replaces GMPEs with deterministic ground motion simulations. RSQSim produces full slip/time histories that can be directly implemented as sources in CyberShake, without relying on the conditional hypocenter and slip distributions needed for the UCERF models. We also compare RSQSim with time-dependent PSHA calculations based on multi-fault renewal models.

A Bayesian least squares support vector machines based framework for fault diagnosis and failure prognosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khawaja, Taimoor Saleem

A high-belief low-overhead Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) system is desired for online real-time monitoring of complex non-linear systems operating in a complex (possibly non-Gaussian) noise environment. This thesis presents a Bayesian Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) based framework for fault diagnosis and failure prognosis in nonlinear non-Gaussian systems. The methodology assumes the availability of real-time process measurements, definition of a set of fault indicators and the existence of empirical knowledge (or historical data) to characterize both nominal and abnormal operating conditions. An efficient yet powerful Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) algorithm, set within a Bayesian Inference framework, not only allows for the development of real-time algorithms for diagnosis and prognosis but also provides a solid theoretical framework to address key concepts related to classification for diagnosis and regression modeling for prognosis. SVM machines are founded on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) which tends to find a good trade-off between low empirical risk and small capacity. The key features in SVM are the use of non-linear kernels, the absence of local minima, the sparseness of the solution and the capacity control obtained by optimizing the margin. The Bayesian Inference framework linked with LS-SVMs allows a probabilistic interpretation of the results for diagnosis and prognosis. Additional levels of inference provide the much coveted features of adaptability and tunability of the modeling parameters. The two main modules considered in this research are fault diagnosis and failure prognosis. With the goal of designing an efficient and reliable fault diagnosis scheme, a novel Anomaly Detector is suggested based on the LS-SVM machines. The proposed scheme uses only baseline data to construct a 1-class LS-SVM machine which, when presented with online data is able to distinguish between normal behavior and any abnormal or novel data during real-time operation. The results of the scheme are interpreted as a posterior probability of health (1 - probability of fault). As shown through two case studies in Chapter 3, the scheme is well suited for diagnosing imminent faults in dynamical non-linear systems. Finally, the failure prognosis scheme is based on an incremental weighted Bayesian LS-SVR machine. It is particularly suited for online deployment given the incremental nature of the algorithm and the quick optimization problem solved in the LS-SVR algorithm. By way of kernelization and a Gaussian Mixture Modeling (GMM) scheme, the algorithm can estimate "possibly" non-Gaussian posterior distributions for complex non-linear systems. An efficient regression scheme associated with the more rigorous core algorithm allows for long-term predictions, fault growth estimation with confidence bounds and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation after a fault is detected. The leading contributions of this thesis are (a) the development of a novel Bayesian Anomaly Detector for efficient and reliable Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) based on Least Squares Support Vector Machines, (b) the development of a data-driven real-time architecture for long-term Failure Prognosis using Least Squares Support Vector Machines, (c) Uncertainty representation and management using Bayesian Inference for posterior distribution estimation and hyper-parameter tuning, and finally (d) the statistical characterization of the performance of diagnosis and prognosis algorithms in order to relate the efficiency and reliability of the proposed schemes.

Analysis of the impact of error detection on computer performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, K. C.; Lee, Y. H.

1983-01-01

Conventionally, reliability analyses either assume that a fault/error is detected immediately following its occurrence, or neglect damages caused by latent errors. Though unrealistic, this assumption was imposed in order to avoid the difficulty of determining the respective probabilities that a fault induces an error and the error is then detected in a random amount of time after its occurrence. As a remedy for this problem a model is proposed to analyze the impact of error detection on computer performance under moderate assumptions. Error latency, the time interval between occurrence and the moment of detection, is used to measure the effectiveness of a detection mechanism. This model is used to: (1) predict the probability of producing an unreliable result, and (2) estimate the loss of computation due to fault and/or error.

Fault- and Area-Based PSHA in Nepal using OpenQuake: New Insights from the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha-Nepal Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Victoria

2017-04-01

The 2015 Gorkha-Nepal M7.8 earthquake (hereafter known simply as the Gorkha earthquake) highlights the seismic risk in Nepal, allows better characterization of the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), and enables comparison of recorded ground-motions with predicted ground-motions. These new data, together with recent paleoseismic studies and geodetic-based coupling models, allow for good parameterization of the fault characteristics. Other faults in Nepal remain less well studied. Unlike previous PSHA studies in Nepal that are exclusively area-based, we use a mix of faults and areas to describe six seismic sources in Nepal. For each source, the Gutenberg-Richter a and b values are found, and the maximum magnitude earthquake estimated, using a combination of earthquake catalogs, moment conservation principals and similarities to other tectonic regions. The MHT and Karakoram fault are described as fault sources, whereas four other sources - normal faulting in N-S trending grabens of northern Nepal, strike-slip faulting in both eastern and western Nepal, and background seismicity - are described as area sources. We use OpenQuake (http://openquake.org/) to carry out the analysis, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 2 and 10% chance in 50 years is found for Nepal, along with hazard curves at various locations. We compare this PSHA model with previous area-based models of Nepal. The Main Himalayan Thrust is the principal seismic hazard in Nepal so we study the effects of changing several parameters associated with this fault. We compare ground shaking predicted from various fault geometries suggested from the Gorkha earthquake with each other, and with a simple model of a flat fault. We also show the results from incorporating a coupling model based on geodetic data and microseismicity, which limits the down-dip extent of rupture. There have been no ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed specifically for Nepal, so we compare the results of standard GMPEs used together with an earthquake-scenario representing that of the Gorkha earthquake, with actual data from the Gorkha earthquake itself. The Gorkha earthquake also highlighted the importance of basin-, topographic- and directivity-effects, and the location of high-frequency sources, on influencing ground motion. Future study aims at incorporating the above, together with consideration of the fault-rupture history and its influence on the location and timing of future earthquakes.

Extension across Tempe Terra, Mars, from measurements of fault scarp widths and deformed craters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golombek, M.P.; Tanaka, K.L.; Franklin, B.J.

1996-01-01

Two independent methods, with no common assumptions, have been used to estimate the extension across the heavily deformed Tempe Terra province of the Tharsis region of Mars. One method uses measurements of normal fault scarp width with average scarp slope data for simple grabens and rifts on Mars to estimate the fault throw, which, combined with sparse fault dip data, can be used to estimate extension. Formal uncertainties in this method are only slightly greater than those in other methods, given that the total uncertainty is dominated by the likely uncertainty in the fault dip (assumed to be 60????15??). Measurement of normal fault scarp widths along two N25??-50??W directed traverses across Tempe Terra both yield about 22??16 km of extension (or ???2% strain across the northern traverse and nearly 3% across the southern one). About three quarters of the extension has occurred during the two main phases of Tharsis-related deformation from Middle/Late Noachian to Early Hesperian and from Late Hesperian to Early Amazonian, with more extension closer to the center of Tharsis during the first phase. Extension across the region was also determined by measuring the elongation and elongation direction of all ancient Noachian impact craters without ejecta blankets, which predate most of the deformation. Results have been corrected for initial non circularity of craters, established from similar measurements of young (post deformation) impact craters, yielding a statistically significant mean strain of 1.96??0.35% in a N38????10??W direction across Tempe Terra (extension of ???20??4, comparable in magnitude and direction to the average result from the scarp measurement method). Both methods indicate an average extension for single normal fault scarps (and shortening across wrinkle ridges for the crater method) of ???100 m. The agreement between the results of the two independent methods in overall extension and average single normal fault extension argues that the average scarp slope and fault dip data in the fault scarp width method accurately represent the actual extension across the observed structures. This conclusion supports existing geometric and kinematic models for structural features on Mars. A preliminary estimate of the total circumferential extension around Tharsis (at a radius of ???2500 km) is roughly 60??42 km; total hoop strain is about 0.4% distributed heterogeneously (Tempe Terra is the most highly strained region on Mars). Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Extension across Tempe Terra, Mars, from measurements of fault scarp widths and deformed craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golombek, M. P.; Tanaka, K. L.; Franklin, B. J.

Two independent methods, with no common assumptions, have been used to estimate the extension across the heavily deformed Tempe Terra province of the Tharsis region of Mars. One method uses measurements of normal fault scarp width with average scarp slope data for simple grabens and rifts on Mars to estimate the fault throw, which, combined with sparse fault dip data, can be used to estimate extension. Formal uncertainties in this method are only slightly greater than those in other methods, given that the total uncertainty is dominated by the likely uncertainty in the fault dip (assumed to be 60°+/-15°). Measurement of normal fault scarp widths along two N25°-50°W directed traverses across Tempe Terra both yield about 22+/-16 km of extension (or ~2% strain across the northern traverse and nearly 3% across the southern one). About three quarters of the extension has occurred during the two main phases of Tharsis-related deformation from Middle/Late Noachian to Early Hesperian and from Late Hesperian to Early Amazonian, with more extension closer to the center of Tharsis during the first phase. Extension across the region was also determined by measuring the elongation and elongation direction of all ancient Noachian impact craters without ejecta blankets, which predate most of the deformation. Results have been corrected for initial non circularity of craters, established from similar measurements of young (post deformation) impact craters, yielding a statistically significant mean strain of 1.96+/-0.35% in a N38°+/-10°W direction across Tempe Terra (extension of ~20+/-4, comparable in magnitude and direction to the average result from the scarp measurement method). Both methods indicate an average extension for single normal fault scarps (and shortening across wrinkle ridges for the crater method) of ~100 m. The agreement between the results of the two independent methods in overall extension and average single normal fault extension argues that the average scarp slope and fault dip data in the fault scarp width method accurately represent the actual extension across the observed structures. This conclusion supports existing geometric and kinematic models for structural features on Mars. A preliminary estimate of the total circumferential extension around Tharsis (at a radius of ~2500 km) is roughly 60+/-42 km; total hoop strain is about 0.4% distributed heterogeneously (Tempe Terra is the most highly strained region on Mars).

Graphical workstation capability for reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Koppen, Sandra V.; Haley, Pamela J.

1992-01-01

In addition to computational capabilities, software tools for estimating the reliability of fault-tolerant digital computer systems must also provide a means of interfacing with the user. Described here is the new graphical interface capability of the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP), a software package that implements advanced reliability modeling techniques. The graphics oriented (GO) module provides the user with a graphical language for modeling system failure modes through the selection of various fault-tree gates, including sequence-dependency gates, or by a Markov chain. By using this graphical input language, a fault tree becomes a convenient notation for describing a system. In accounting for any sequence dependencies, HARP converts the fault-tree notation to a complex stochastic process that is reduced to a Markov chain, which it can then solve for system reliability. The graphics capability is available for use on an IBM-compatible PC, a Sun, and a VAX workstation. The GO module is written in the C programming language and uses the graphical kernal system (GKS) standard for graphics implementation. The PC, VAX, and Sun versions of the HARP GO module are currently in beta-testing stages.

Constitutive relationships and physical basis of fault strength due to flash heating

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, N.M.; Tullis, T.E.; Goldsby, D.L.

2008-01-01

We develop a model of fault strength loss resulting from phase change at asperity contacts due to flash heating that considers a distribution of contact sizes and nonsteady state evolution of fault strength with displacement. Laboratory faulting experiments conducted at high sliding velocities, which show dramatic strength reduction below the threshold for bulk melting, are well fit by the model. The predicted slip speed for the onset of weakening is in the range of 0.05 to 2 m/s, qualitatively consistent with the limited published observations. For this model, earthquake stress drops and effective shear fracture energy should be linearly pressure-dependent, whereas the onset speed may be pressure-independent or weakly pressure-dependent. On the basis of the theory, flash weakening is expected to produce large dynamic stress drops, small effective shear fracture energy, and undershoot. Estimates of the threshold slip speed, stress drop, and fracture energy are uncertain due to poor knowledge of the average ontact dimension, shear zone thickness and gouge particle size at seismogenic depths. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Fault detection and diagnosis in a spacecraft attitude determination system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirmoradi, F. N.; Sassani, F.; de Silva, C. W.

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new scheme for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) in spacecraft attitude determination (AD) sensors. An integrated attitude determination system, which includes measurements of rate and angular position using rate gyros and vector sensors, is developed. Measurement data from all sensors are fused by a linearized Kalman filter, which is designed based on the system kinematics, to provide attitude estimation and the values of the gyro bias. Using this information the erroneous sensor measurements are corrected, and unbounded sensor measurement errors are avoided. The resulting bias-free data are used in the FDD scheme. The FDD algorithm uses model-based state estimation, combining the information from the rotational dynamics and kinematics of a spacecraft with the sensor measurements to predict the future sensor outputs. Fault isolation is performed through extended Kalman filters (EKFs). The innovation sequences of EKFs are monitored by several statistical tests to detect the presence of a failure and to localize the failures in all AD sensors. The isolation procedure is developed in two phases. In the first phase, two EKFs are designed, which use subsets of measurements to provide state estimates and form residuals, which are used to verify the source of the fault. In the second phase of isolation, testing of multiple hypotheses is performed. The generalized likelihood ratio test is utilized to identify the faulty components. In the scheme developed in this paper a relatively small number of hypotheses is used, which results in faster isolation and highly distinguishable fault signatures. An important feature of the developed FDD scheme is that it can provide attitude estimations even if only one type of sensors is functioning properly.

Imaging shear strength along subduction faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bletery, Quentin; Thomas, Amanda M.; Rempel, Alan W.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2017-01-01

Subduction faults accumulate stress during long periods of time and release this stress suddenly, during earthquakes, when it reaches a threshold. This threshold, the shear strength, controls the occurrence and magnitude of earthquakes. We consider a 3-D model to derive an analytical expression for how the shear strength depends on the fault geometry, the convergence obliquity, frictional properties, and the stress field orientation. We then use estimates of these different parameters in Japan to infer the distribution of shear strength along a subduction fault. We show that the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake ruptured a fault portion characterized by unusually small variations in static shear strength. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that large earthquakes preferentially rupture regions with relatively homogeneous shear strength. With increasing constraints on the different parameters at play, our approach could, in the future, help identify favorable locations for large earthquakes.

Modeling of geogenic radon in Switzerland based on ordered logistic regression.

PubMed

Kropat, Georg; Bochud, François; Murith, Christophe; Palacios Gruson, Martha; Baechler, Sébastien

2017-01-01

The estimation of the radon hazard of a future construction site should ideally be based on the geogenic radon potential (GRP), since this estimate is free of anthropogenic influences and building characteristics. The goal of this study was to evaluate terrestrial gamma dose rate (TGD), geology, fault lines and topsoil permeability as predictors for the creation of a GRP map based on logistic regression. Soil gas radon measurements (SRC) are more suited for the estimation of GRP than indoor radon measurements (IRC) since the former do not depend on ventilation and heating habits or building characteristics. However, SRC have only been measured at a few locations in Switzerland. In former studies a good correlation between spatial aggregates of IRC and SRC has been observed. That's why we used IRC measurements aggregated on a 10 km × 10 km grid to calibrate an ordered logistic regression model for geogenic radon potential (GRP). As predictors we took into account terrestrial gamma doserate, regrouped geological units, fault line density and the permeability of the soil. The classification success rate of the model results to 56% in case of the inclusion of all 4 predictor variables. Our results suggest that terrestrial gamma doserate and regrouped geological units are more suited to model GRP than fault line density and soil permeability. Ordered logistic regression is a promising tool for the modeling of GRP maps due to its simplicity and fast computation time. Future studies should account for additional variables to improve the modeling of high radon hazard in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluating sources of uncertainties in finite-fault source models: lessons from the 2009 Mw6.1 L'Aquila earthquake, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragon, T.; Sladen, A.; Bletery, Q.; Simons, M.; Magnoni, F.; Avallone, A.; Cavalié, O.; Vergnolle, M.

2016-12-01

Despite the diversity of available data for the Mw 6.1 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy, published finite fault slip models are surprisingly different. For instance, the amplitude of the maximum coseismic slip patch varies from 80cm to 225cm, and its depth oscillates between 5 and 15km. Discrepancies between proposed source parameters are believed to result from three sources: observational uncertainties, epistemic uncertainties, and the inherent non-uniqueness of inverse problems. We explore the whole solution space of fault-slip models compatible with the data within the range of both observational and epistemic uncertainties by performing a fully Bayesian analysis. In this initial stage, we restrict our analysis to the static problem.In terms of observation uncertainty, we must take into account the difference in time span associated with the different data types: InSAR images provide excellent spatial coverage but usually correspond to a period of a few days to weeks after the mainshock and can thus be potentially biased by significant afterslip. Continuous GPS stations do not have the same shortcoming, but in contrast do not have the desired spatial coverage near the fault. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake, InSAR images include a minimum of 6 days of afterslip. Here, we explicitly account for these different time windows in the inversion by jointly inverting for coseismic and post-seismic fault slip. Regarding epistemic or modeling uncertainties, we focus on the impact of uncertain fault geometry and elastic structure. Modeling errors, which result from inaccurate model predictions and are generally neglected, are estimated for both earth model and fault geometry as non-diagonal covariance matrices. The L'Aquila earthquake is particularly suited to investigation of these effects given the availability of a detailed aftershock catalog and 3D velocity models. This work aims at improving our knowledge of the L'Aquila earthquake as well as at providing a more general perspective on which uncertainties are the most critical in finite-fault source studies.

Identifying Model-Based Reconfiguration Goals through Functional Deficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benazera, Emmanuel; Trave-Massuyes, Louise

2004-01-01

Model-based diagnosis is now advanced to the point autonomous systems face some uncertain and faulty situations with success. The next step toward more autonomy is to have the system recovering itself after faults occur, a process known as model-based reconfiguration. After faults occur, given a prediction of the nominal behavior of the system and the result of the diagnosis operation, this paper details how to automatically determine the functional deficiencies of the system. These deficiencies are characterized in the case of uncertain state estimates. A methodology is then presented to determine the reconfiguration goals based on the deficiencies. Finally, a recovery process interleaves planning and model predictive control to restore the functionalities in prioritized order.

Effects of faults as barriers or conduits to displaced brine flow on a putative CO2 storage site in the Southern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannis, Sarah; Bricker, Stephanie; Williams, John

2013-04-01

The Bunter Sandstone Formation in the Southern North Sea is a potential reservoir being considered for carbon dioxide storage as a climate change mitigation option. A geological model of a putative storage site within this saline aquifer was built from 3D seismic and well data to investigate potential reservoir pressure changes and their effects on fault movement, brine and CO2 migration as a result of CO2 injection. The model is located directly beneath the Dogger Bank Special Area of Conservation, close to the UK-Netherlands median line. Analysis of the seismic data reveals two large fault zones, one in each of the UK and Netherlands sectors, many tens of kilometres in length, extending from reservoir level to the sea bed. Although it has been shown that similar faults compartmentalise gas fields elsewhere in the Netherlands sector, significant uncertainty remains surrounding the properties of the faults in our model area; in particular their cross- and along-fault permeability and geomechanical behaviour. Despite lying outside the anticipated CO2 plume, these faults could provide potential barriers to pore fluid migration and pressure dissipation, until, under elevated pressures, they provide vertical migration pathways for brine. In this case, the faults will act to enhance injectivity, but potential environmental impacts, should the displaced brine be expelled at the sea bed, will require consideration. Pressure gradients deduced from regional leak-off test data have been input into a simple geomechanical model to estimate the threshold pressure gradient at which faults cutting the Mesozoic succession will fail, assuming reactivation of fault segments will cause an increase in vertical permeability. Various 4D scenarios were run using a single-phase groundwater modelling code, calibrated to results from a multi-phase commercial simulator. Possible end-member ranges of fault parameters were input to investigate the pressure change with time and quantify brine flux to the seabed in potentially reactivated sections of each fault zone. Combining the modelled pressure field with the calculated fault failure criterion suggests that only the fault in the Netherlands sector reactivates, allowing brine displacement at a maximum rate of 800 - 900 m3/d. Model results indicate that the extent of brine displacement is most sensitive to the fault reactivation pressure gradient and fault zone thickness. In conclusion, CO2 injection into a saline aquifer results in a significant increase in pore-fluid pressure gradients. In this case, brine displacement along faults acting as pressure relief valves could increase injectivity in a similar manner to pressure management wells, thereby facilitating the storage operation. However, if the faults act as brine migration pathways, an understanding of seabed flux rates and environmental impacts will need to be demonstrated to regulators prior to injection. This study, close to an international border, also highlights the need to inform neighbouring countries authorities of proposed operations and, potentially, to obtain licences to increase reservoir pressure and/or displace brine across international borders.

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Intra-caldera active fault: An example from the Mw 7.0 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, S.; Murakami, T.; Takahashi, N.

2017-12-01

A NE-trending 30-km-long surface rupture with up to 2.4 m dextral slip emerged during the Mw=7.0 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake along the previously mapped Futagawa and northern Hinagu fault systems. The 5-km-long portion of the northeast rupture end, which was previously unidentified, crossed somma and extended to the 20-km-diameter Aso Caldera, one of the major active volcanoes, central Kyushu. We here explore geologic exposures of interplays of active faulting and active volcanism, and then argue the Futagawa fault system has been influenced by the ring fault system associated with the caldera forming gigantic eruptions since 270 ka, last of which occurred 90 ka ejecting a huge amount of ignimbrite. To understand the interplays, together with the mapping of the 2016 rupture, we employed an UAV to capture numerous photos of the exposures along the canyon and developed 3D orthochromatic topographic model using PhotoScan. One-hundred-meter-deep Kurokawa River canyon by the Aso Caldera rim exposes two lava flow units of 50 ka vertically offset by 10 m by the Futatawa fault system. Reconstructions of the collapsed bridges across the Kurokawa River also reveal cross sections of a 30-meter-high tectonic bulge and 10-m-scale negative flower structure deformed by the frequent fault movements. We speculate two fault developing models across the Aso Caldera. One is that the NE edge of the Futagawa fault system was cut and reset by the caldera forming ring fault, which indicates the 3-km-long rupture extent within the Aso Caldera would be a product of the fault growth since the last Aso-4 eruption of 90 ka. It enables us to estimate the 33 mm/yr of the fault propagation speed. An alternative model is that subsurface rupture of the Kumamoto earthquake extended further to the NE rim, the other side of the caldera edge, which is partially supported by the geodetic and seismic inversions. With respect to the model, the clear surface rupture of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake was invisible due to the lava and fallout layers younger than 4ka that probably experienced only one or two events and do not have the pre-existing weak and sharp fault plane yet.

Palinspastic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for the middle Miocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richard, Stephen M.

1992-01-01

A paleogeographic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona at 10 Ma was made based on available geologic and geophysical data. Clockwise rotation of 39 deg was reconstructed in the eastern Transverse Ranges, consistent with paleomagnetic data from late Miocene volcanic rocks, and with slip estimates for left-lateral faults within the eastern Transverse Ranges and NW-trending right lateral faults in the Mojave Desert. This domain of rotated rocks is bounded by the Pinto Mountain fault on the north. In the absence of evidence for rotation of the San Bernardino Mountains or for significant right slip faults within the San Bernardino Mountains, the model requires that the late Miocene Pinto Mountain fault become a thrust fault gaining displacement to the west. The Squaw Peak thrust system of Meisling and Weldon may be a western continuation of this fault system. The Sheep Hole fault bounds the rotating domain on the east. East of this fault an array of NW-trending right slip faults and south-trending extensional transfer zones has produced a basin and range physiography while accumulating up to 14 km of right slip. This maximum is significantly less than the 37.5 km of right slip required in this region by a recent reconstruction of the central Mojave Desert. Geologic relations along the southern boundary of the rotating domain are poorly known, but this boundary is interpreted to involve a series of curved strike slip faults and non-coaxial extension, bounded on the southeast by the Mammoth Wash and related faults in the eastern Chocolate Mountains. Available constraints on timing suggest that Quaternary movement on the Pinto Mountain and nearby faults is unrelated to the rotation of the eastern Transverse Ranges, and was preceded by a hiatus during part of Pliocene time which followed the deformation producing the rotation. The reconstructed Clemens Well fault in the Orocopia Mountains, proposed as a major early Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault, projects eastward towards Arizona, where early Miocene rocks and structures are continuous across its trace. The model predicts a 14 deg clockwise rotation and 55 km extension along the present trace of the San Andreas fault during late Miocene and early Pliocene time. Palinspastic reconstructions of the San Andreas system based on this proposed reconstruction may be significantly modified from current models.

Upper plate contraction north of the migrating Mendocino triple junction northern California: Implications for partitioning of strain

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCrory, P.A.

2000-01-01

Geologic measurement of permanent contraction across the Cascadia subduction margin constrains one component of the tectonic deformation along the convergent plate boundary, the component critical for the seismic hazard assessment of crustal faults. A comprehensive survey of active faults in onshore subduction margin rocks at the southern end of the Cascadia subduction zone indicates that these thrust faults accommodate ??10 mm/yr of convergence oriented 020??-045??. Seismotectonic models of subduction zones typically assign this upper plate strain to the estimate of aseismic slip on the megathrust. Geodetic models include this permanent crustal strain within estimates of elastic strain accumulation on the megathrust. Both types of models underestimate the seismic hazard associated with crustal faults. Subtracting the observed contraction from the plate convergence rate (40-50 mm/yr; directed 040??-055??) leaves 30-40 mm/yr of convergence to be partitioned between slip on the megathrust, contraction within the southern Juan de Fuca plate, and crustal contraction outside the subduction complex rocks. This simple estimate of slip partitioning neglects the discrepancy between the plate convergence and contraction directions in the vicinity of the Mendocino triple junction. The San Andreas and Cascadia limbs of the Mendocino triple junction are not collinear. The eastern edge of the broad San Andreas boundary is ??85 km east of the Cascadia subduction boundary, and across this zone the Pacific plate converges directly with the North America plate. The skewed orientation of crustal structures just north of the leading edge of the Pacific plate suggests that they are deforming in a hybrid stress field resulting from both Juan de Fuca-North America motion and Pacific-North America motion. The composite convergence direction (50 mm/yr: directed 023??) is consistent with the compressive stress axis (020??) inferred from focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes in the Humboldt region. Deformation in such a hybrid stress field implies that the crustal faults are being loaded from two major tectonic sources. The slip on crustal faults north of the Mendocino triple junction may consume 4-5 mm/yr of Pacific-Humboldt convergence. The remaining 17-18 mm/yr of convergence may be consumed as distributed shortening expressed in the high rates of uplift in the Cape Mendocino region or as northward translation of the continental margin, north of the triple junction.

Seismic anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine fault, New Zealand, estimated by seismic interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, R.; Okada, T.; Yoshida, K.; Townend, J.; Boese, C. M.; Baratin, L. M.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Savage, M. K.

2016-12-01

We estimate shear wave velocity anisotropy in shallow crust near the Alpine fault using seismic interferometry of borehole vertical arrays. We utilized four borehole observations: two sensors are deployed in two boreholes of the Deep Fault Drilling Project in the hanging wall side, and the other two sites are located in the footwall side. Surface sensors deployed just above each borehole are used to make vertical arrays. Crosscorrelating rotated horizontal seismograms observed by the borehole and surface sensors, we extracted polarized shear waves propagating from the bottom to the surface of each borehole. The extracted shear waves show polarization angle dependence of travel time, indicating shear wave anisotropy between the two sensors. In the hanging wall side, the estimated fast shear wave directions are parallel to the Alpine fault. Strong anisotropy of 20% is observed at the site within 100 m from the Alpine fault. The hanging wall consists of mylonite and schist characterized by fault parallel foliation. In addition, an acoustic borehole imaging reveals fractures parallel to the Alpine fault. The fault parallel anisotropy suggest structural anisotropy is predominant in the hanging wall, demonstrating consistency of geological and seismological observations. In the footwall side, on the other hand, the angle between the fast direction and the strike of the Alpine fault is 33-40 degrees. Since the footwall is composed of granitoid that may not have planar structure, stress induced anisotropy is possibly predominant. The direction of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) estimated by focal mechanisms of regional earthquakes is 55 degrees of the Alpine fault. Possible interpretation of the difference between the fast direction and SHmax direction is depth rotation of stress field near the Alpine fault. Similar depth rotation of stress field is also observed in the SAFOD borehole at the San Andreas fault.

Crustal deformation associated with east Mediterranean strike-slip earthquakes: The 8 June 2008 Movri (NW Peloponnese), Greece, earthquake (M w6.4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Karastathis, Vassilis; Kontoes, Charalambos; Charalampakis, Marinos; Fokaefs, Anna; Papoutsis, Ioannis

2010-09-01

The 2008 mainshock ( Mw = 6.4) was the first modern, strong strike-slip earthquake in the Greek mainland. The fault strikes NE-SW, dips ˜ 85°NW while the motion was right-lateral with small reverse component. Historical seismicity showed no evidence that the fault ruptured in the last 300 years. For rectangular planar fault we estimated fault dimensions from aftershock locations. Dimensions are consistent with that a buried fault was activated, lateral expansion occurred only along length and the rupture stopped at depth ˜ 20 km implying that more rupture along length was favoured. We concluded that no major asperities remained unbroken and that the aftershock activity was dominated rather by creeping mechanism than by the presence of locked patches. For Mo = 4.56 × 10 25 dyn cm we calculated average slip of 76 cm and stress drop Δσ ˜ 13 bars. This Δσ is high for Greek strike-slip earthquakes, due rather to increased rigidity because of the relatively long recurrence ( Τ > 300 years) of strong earthquakes in the fault, than to high slip. Values of Δσ and Τ indicated that the fault is neither a typical strong nor a typical weak fault. Dislocation modeling of a buried fault showed uplift of ˜ 8.0 cm in Kato Achaia ( Δ ˜ 20 km) at the hanging wall of the reverse fault component. DInSAR analysis detected co-seismic motion only in Kato Achaia where interferogram fringes pattern showed vertical displacement from 3.0 to 6.0 cm. From field-surveys we estimated maximum intensity of VIII in Kato Achaia. The most important liquefaction spots were also observed there. These observations are attributable neither to surface fault-breaks nor to site effects but possibly to high ground acceleration due to the co-seismic uplift. The causal association between displacement and earthquake damage in the hanging wall described for dip-slip faults in Taiwan, Greece and elsewhere, becomes possible also for strike-slip faults with dip-slip component, as the 2008 earthquake.

USGS-WHOI-DPRI Coulomb Stress-Transfer Model for the January 12, 2010, MW=7.0 Haiti Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lin, Jian; Stein, Ross S.; Sevilgen, Volkan; Toda, Shinji

2010-01-01

Using calculated stress changes to faults surrounding the January 12, 2010, rupture on the Enriquillo Fault, and the current (January 12 to 26, 2010) aftershock productivity, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) have made rough estimates of the chance of a magnitude (Mw)=7 earthquake occurring during January 27 to February 22, 2010, in Haiti. The probability of such a quake on the Port-au-Prince section of the Enriquillo Fault is about 2 percent, and the probability for the section to the west of the January 12, 2010, rupture is about 1 percent. The stress changes on the Septentrional Fault in northern Haiti are much smaller, although positive.

Estimating Tsunami Runup with Fault Plane Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.

2016-12-01

The forecasting of tsunami runup has often been done by solving numerical models. The execution times, however, make them unsuitable for the purpose of warning. We offer an alternative method that provides analytical relationship between the runup height, the fault plane parameters and the characteristic of coastal bathymetry. The method uses the model of Okada (1985) to estimate the coseismic deformation and the corresponding sea surface displacement (η(x,0)). Once the tsunami waves are generated, Carrier & Greenspan (1958) solution (C&G) is adopted to yield analytical expressions for the shoreline elevation and velocity. Two types of problems are investigated. In the first, the bathymetry is modeled as a constant slope that is connected to a constant depth region, where a seismic event occurs. This is a boundary value problem (BVP). In the second, the bathymetry is further simplified as a constant slope, on which a seismic event occurs. This is an initial value problem (IVP). Both problems are depicted in Figure 1. We derive runup solutions in terms of the fault parameters. The earthquake is associated with vertical coseismic seafloor displacements by using Okada's elastic model. In addition to the simplifications considered in Okada's model, we further assume (1) a strike parallel to the shoreline, (2) a very long rupture area and (3) a fast earthquake so surface elevation mimics the seafloor displacements. Then the tsunami origin is modeled in terms of the fault depth (d), fault width (W), fault slip (s) and dip angle (δ). We describe the solution for the BVP. Madsen & Schaeffer (2010) utilized C&G to derive solutions for the shoreline elevation of sinusoidal waves imposed in the offshore boundary. A linear superposition of this solution represents any arbitrary incident wave. Furthermore, we can prescribe the boundary condition at the toe of sloping beach by adopting the linear shallow wave equations in the constant depth area. By means of a dimensional analysis, the runup R is determined by Eq.1. Kanoglu (2004) derived a non-dimensional expression for long wave runup originated over a sloping beach. In our work we determine an analytical expression for a sinusoidal initial condition. Following the same procedure as the BVP, the expression for the runup R in the IVP is given by Eq.2. The curves F1 and F2 are plotted in Figure 2.

Sinusoidal synthesis based adaptive tracking for rotating machinery fault detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gang; McDonald, Geoff L.; Zhao, Qing

2017-01-01

This paper presents a novel Sinusoidal Synthesis Based Adaptive Tracking (SSBAT) technique for vibration-based rotating machinery fault detection. The proposed SSBAT algorithm is an adaptive time series technique that makes use of both frequency and time domain information of vibration signals. Such information is incorporated in a time varying dynamic model. Signal tracking is then realized by applying adaptive sinusoidal synthesis to the vibration signal. A modified Least-Squares (LS) method is adopted to estimate the model parameters. In addition to tracking, the proposed vibration synthesis model is mainly used as a linear time-varying predictor. The health condition of the rotating machine is monitored by checking the residual between the predicted and measured signal. The SSBAT method takes advantage of the sinusoidal nature of vibration signals and transfers the nonlinear problem into a linear adaptive problem in the time domain based on a state-space realization. It has low computation burden and does not need a priori knowledge of the machine under the no-fault condition which makes the algorithm ideal for on-line fault detection. The method is validated using both numerical simulation and practical application data. Meanwhile, the fault detection results are compared with the commonly adopted autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive Minimum Entropy Deconvolution (ARMED) method to verify the feasibility and performance of the SSBAT method.

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reilinger, Robert

2005-01-01

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

The 26 December 2004 tsunami source estimated from satellite radar altimetry and seismic waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Tony Y.; Ji, Chen; Fu, L. -L.; Zlotnicki, Victor; Shum, C. K.; Yi, Yuchan; Hjorleifsdottir, Vala

2005-01-01

The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the first earthquake tsunami of its magnitude to occur since the advent of both digital seismometry and satellite radar altimetry. Both have independently recorded the event from different physical aspects. The seismic data has then been used to estimate the earthquake fault parameters, and a three-dimensional ocean-general-circulation-model (OGCM) coupled with the fault information has been used to simulate the satellite-observed tsunami waves. Here we show that these two datasets consistently provide the tsunami source using independent methodologies of seismic waveform inversion and ocean modeling. Cross-examining the two independent results confirms that the slip function is the most important condition controlling the tsunami strength, while the geometry and the rupture velocity of the tectonic plane determine the spatial patterns of the tsunami.

Relocation of Groningen seismicity using refracted waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruigrok, E.; Trampert, J.; Paulssen, H.; Dost, B.

2015-12-01

The Groningen gas field is a giant natural gas accumulation in the Northeast of the Netherlands. The gas is in a reservoir at a depth of about 3 km. The naturally-fractured gas-filled sandstone extends roughly 45 by 25 km laterally and 140 m vertically. Decades of production have led to significant compaction of the sandstone. The (differential) compaction is thought to have reactivated existing faults and being the main driver of induced seismicity. Precise earthquake location is difficult due to a complicated subsurface, and that is the likely reason, the current hypocentre estimates do not clearly correlate with the well-known fault network. The seismic velocity model down to reservoir depth is quite well known from extensive seismic surveys and borehole data. Most to date earthquake detections, however, were made with a sparse pre-2015 seismic network. For shallow seismicity (<5 km depth) horizontal source-receiver distances tend to be much larger than vertical distances. Consequently, preferred source-receiver travel paths are refractions over high-velocity layers below the reservoir. However, the seismic velocities of layers below the reservoir are poorly known. We estimated an effective velocity model of the main refracting layer below the reservoir and use this for relocating past seismicity. We took advantage of vertical-borehole recordings for estimating precise P-wave (refraction) onset times and used a tomographic approach to find the laterally varying velocity field of the refracting layer. This refracting layer is then added to the known velocity model, and the combined model is used to relocate the past seismicity. From the resulting relocations we assess which of the faults are being reactivated.

Coulomb stress change of crustal faults in Japan for 21 years, estimated from GNSS displacement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimura, T.

2017-12-01

Coulomb stress is one of the simplest index to show how the fault is close to a brittle failure (e.g., earthquake). Many previous studies used the Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) to evaluate whether the fault approaches failure and successfully explained an earthquake triggered by previous earthquakes and volcanic sources. Most studies use a model of a half-space medium with given rheological properties, boundary conditions, dislocation, etc. to calculate ΔCFS. However, Ueda and Takahashi (2005) proposed to calculate DCFS directly from surface displacement observed by GNSS. There are 6 independent components of stress tensor in an isotropic elastic medium. On the surface of the half-space medium, 3 components should be zero because of no traction on the surface. This means the stress change on the surface is calculated from the surface strain change using Hooke's law. Although an earthquake does not occur on surface, the stress change on the surface may approximate that at a depth of a shallow crustal earthquake (e.g., 10 km) if the source is far from the point at which we calculate the stress change. We tested it by comparing ΔCFS from the surface displacement and that from elastic fault models for past earthquakes. We first estimate a strain change with a method of Shen et al.(1996 JGR) from surface displacement and then calculate ΔCFS for a targeted focal mechanism. Although ΔCFS in the vicinity of the source fault cannot be reproduced from the surface displacement, surface displacement gives a good approximation of ΔCFS in a region 50 km away from the source if the target mechanism is a vertical strike-slip fault. It suggests that GNSS observation can give useful information on a recent change of earthquake potential. We, therefore, calculate the temporal evolution of ΔCFS on active faults in southwest Japan from April 1996 using surface displacement at GNSS stations. We used parameters for the active faults used for evaluation of strong motion by the Earthquake Research Committee. When we use 0.4 for an effective frictional coefficient, ΔCFS increased at most active faults in the Kyushu region by up to 50 KPa for 21 years. On the other hand, ΔCFS did not always increase at active faults in the Kinki region.

NASA/Caltech Team Images Nepal Quake Fault Rupture, Surface Movements

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-05-04

Using a combination of GPS-measured ground motion data, satellite radar data, and seismic observations from instruments distributed around the world, scientists have constructed preliminary estimates of how much the fault responsible for the April 25, 2015, magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal moved below Earth's surface (Figure 1). This information is useful for understanding not only what happened in the earthquake but also the potential for future events. It can also be used to infer a map of how Earth's surface moved due to the earthquake over a broader region (Figure 2). The maps created from these data can be viewed at PIA19384. In the first figure, the modeled slip on the fault is shown as viewed from above and indicated by the colors and contours within the rectangle. The peak slip in the fault exceeds 19.7 feet (6 meters). The ground motion measured with GPS is shown by the red and purple arrows and was used to develop the fault slip model. In the second figure, color represents vertical movement and the scaled arrows indicate direction and magnitude of horizontal movement. In both figures, aftershocks are indicated by red dots. Background color and shaded relief reflect regional variations in topography. The barbed lines show where the main fault reaches Earth's surface. The main fault dives northward into the Earth below the Himalaya. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19384

Present-day velocity field and block kinematics of Tibetan Plateau from GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Qiao, Xuejun; Yang, Shaomin; Wang, Dijin

2017-02-01

In this study, we present a new synthesis of GPS velocities for tectonic deformation within the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, a combined data set of ˜1854 GPS-derived horizontal velocity vectors. Assuming that crustal deformation is localized along major faults, a block modelling approach is employed to interpret the GPS velocity field. We construct a 30-element block model to describe present-day deformation in western China, with half of them located within the Tibetan Plateau, and the remainder located in its surrounding areas. We model the GPS velocities simultaneously for the effects of block rotations and elastic strain induced by the bounding faults. Our model yields a good fit to the GPS data with a mean residual of 1.08 mm a-1 compared to the mean uncertainty of 1.36 mm a-1 for each velocity component, indicating a good agreement between the predicted and observed velocities. The major strike-slip faults such as the Altyn Tagh, Xianshuihe, Kunlun and Haiyuan faults have relatively uniform slip rates in a range of 5-12 mm a-1 along most of their segments, and the estimated fault slip rates agree well with previous geologic and geodetic results. Blocks having significant residuals are located at the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, suggesting complex tectonic settings and further refinement of accurate definition of block geometry in these regions.

M(sub W) = 7.2-7.4 Estimated for A.D. 900 Seattle Fault Earthquake by Modeling the Uplift of a Lidar-Mapped Marine Terrace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Jordan R.; Harding, David J.

2006-01-01

Inverse modeling of slip on the Seattle fault system, constrained by elevations of uplifted marine terraces, provides a well-constrained estimate of the magnitude of the largest known upper-crust earthquake in the Puget Sound region within the past 2500 years. The terrace elevations that constrain the slip inversion are extracted from elevation and slope images generated from LIDAR surveys of the Puget Sound collected in 1996-2002. The images reveal a single uplifted terrace, dated to 1000 cal yr B.P. near Restoration Point, which is morphologically continuous along the southern shoreline of Bainbridge Island and is visible at comparable elevations within a 25 km by 12 km region encompassing coastlines of West Seattle, Bremerton, East Bremerton, Port Orchard, and Waterman Point. Considering sea level changes since A.D. 900, the maximum uplift magnitudes of shoreline inner edges approach 9 m and are located at the southernmost coastline of Bainbridge Island and the northern tip of Waterman Point, while tilt magnitudes are modest - approaching 0.1 degrees. For each of several different Seattle fault geometry interpretations, we use a linear inversion code to solve for distributed slip on the fault surfaces. Moment magnitudes of 7.2 to 7.4 are calculated directly from the different slip solutions. In general, the greatest slip of the A.D. 900 event was confined to the frontal thrust of the Seattle fault system and was centered beneath Puget Sound between Restoration Point and Alki Point.

Strategy Developed for Selecting Optimal Sensors for Monitoring Engine Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Sensor indications during rocket engine operation are the primary means of assessing engine performance and health. Effective selection and location of sensors in the operating engine environment enables accurate real-time condition monitoring and rapid engine controller response to mitigate critical fault conditions. These capabilities are crucial to ensure crew safety and mission success. Effective sensor selection also facilitates postflight condition assessment, which contributes to efficient engine maintenance and reduced operating costs. Under the Next Generation Launch Technology program, the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power, has developed a model-based procedure for systematically selecting an optimal sensor suite for assessing rocket engine system health. This optimization process is termed the systematic sensor selection strategy. Engine health management (EHM) systems generally employ multiple diagnostic procedures including data validation, anomaly detection, fault-isolation, and information fusion. The effectiveness of each diagnostic component is affected by the quality, availability, and compatibility of sensor data. Therefore systematic sensor selection is an enabling technology for EHM. Information in three categories is required by the systematic sensor selection strategy. The first category consists of targeted engine fault information; including the description and estimated risk-reduction factor for each identified fault. Risk-reduction factors are used to define and rank the potential merit of timely fault diagnoses. The second category is composed of candidate sensor information; including type, location, and estimated variance in normal operation. The final category includes the definition of fault scenarios characteristic of each targeted engine fault. These scenarios are defined in terms of engine model hardware parameters. Values of these parameters define engine simulations that generate expected sensor values for targeted fault scenarios. Taken together, this information provides an efficient condensation of the engineering experience and engine flow physics needed for sensor selection. The systematic sensor selection strategy is composed of three primary algorithms. The core of the selection process is a genetic algorithm that iteratively improves a defined quality measure of selected sensor suites. A merit algorithm is employed to compute the quality measure for each test sensor suite presented by the selection process. The quality measure is based on the fidelity of fault detection and the level of fault source discrimination provided by the test sensor suite. An inverse engine model, whose function is to derive hardware performance parameters from sensor data, is an integral part of the merit algorithm. The final component is a statistical evaluation algorithm that characterizes the impact of interference effects, such as control-induced sensor variation and sensor noise, on the probability of fault detection and isolation for optimal and near-optimal sensor suites.

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

On boundary-element models of elastic fault interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, T. W.; Schott, B.

2002-12-01

We present the freely available, modular, and UNIX command-line based boundary-element program interact. It is yet another implementation of Crouch and Starfield's (1983) 2-D and Okada's (1992) half-space solutions for constant slip on planar fault segments in an elastic medium. Using unconstrained or non-negative, standard-package matrix routines, the code can solve for slip distributions on faults given stress boundary conditions, or vice versa, both in a local or global reference frame. Based on examples of complex fault geometries from structural geology, we discuss the effects of different stress boundary conditions on the predicted slip distributions of interacting fault systems. Such one-step calculations can be useful to estimate the moment-release efficiency of alternative fault geometries, and so to evaluate the likelihood which system may be realized in nature. A further application of the program is the simulation of cyclic fault rupture based on simple static-kinetic friction laws. We comment on two issues: First, that of the appropriate rupture algorithm. Cellular models of seismicity often employ an exhaustive rupture scheme: fault cells fail if some critical stress is reached, then cells slip once-only by a given amount, and subsequently the redistributed stress is used to check for triggered activations on other cells. We show that this procedure can lead to artificial complexity in seismicity if time-to-failure is not calculated carefully because of numerical noise. Second, we address the question if foreshocks can be viewed as direct expressions of a simple statistical distribution of frictional strength on individual faults. Repetitive failure models based on a random distribution of frictional coefficients initially show irregular seismicity. By repeatedly selecting weaker patches, the fault then evolves into a quasi-periodic cycle. Each time, the pre-mainshock events build up the cumulative moment release in a non-linear fashion. These temporal seismicity patterns roughly resemble the accelerated moment-release features which are sometimes observed in nature.

Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, L.; Frehner, M.; Sauer, K. M.; Toy, V.; Guerin-Marthe, S.; Boulton, C. J.

2017-12-01

Reconciling experimental and static-dynamic numerical estimations of seismic anisotropy in Alpine Fault mylonitesLudmila Adam1, Marcel Frehner2, Katrina Sauer3, Virginia Toy3, Simon Guerin-Marthe4, Carolyn Boulton5(1) University of Auckland, New Zealand, (2) ETH Zurich, Switzerland, (3) University of Otago, New Zealand (4) Durham University, Earth Sciences, United Kingdom (5) Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Quartzo-feldspathic mylonites and schists are the main contributors to seismic wave anisotropy in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault (New Zealand). We must determine how the physical properties of rocks like these influence elastic wave anisotropy if we want to unravel both the reasons for heterogeneous seismic wave propagation, and interpret deformation processes in fault zones. To study such controls on velocity anisotropy we can: 1) experimentally measure elastic wave anisotropy on cores at in-situ conditions or 2) estimate wave velocities by static (effective medium averaging) or dynamic (finite element) modelling based on EBSD data or photomicrographs. Here we compare all three approaches in study of schist and mylonite samples from the Alpine Fault. Volumetric proportions of intrinsically anisotropic micas in cleavage domains and comparatively isotropic quartz+feldspar in microlithons commonly vary significantly within one sample. Our analysis examines the effects of these phases and their arrangement, and further addresses how heterogeneity influences elastic wave anisotropy. We compare P-wave seismic anisotropy estimates based on millimetres-scale ultrasonic waves under in situ conditions, with simulations that account for micrometre-scale variations in elastic properties of constitutent minerals with the MTEX toolbox and finite-element wave propagation on EBSD images. We observe that the sorts of variations in the distribution of micas and quartz+feldspar within any one of our real core samples can change the elastic wave anisotropy by 10%. In addition, at 60 MPa confining pressure, experimental elastic anisotropy is greater than modelled anisotropy, which could indicate that open microfractures dramatically influence seismic wave anisotropy in the top 3 to 4 km of the crust, or be related to the different resolutions of the two methods.

Space geodetic observation of the deformation cycle across the Ballenas Transform, Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plattner, Christina; Malservisi, Rocco; Amelung, Falk; Dixon, Timothy H.; Hackl, Matthias; Verdecchia, Alessandro; Lonsdale, Peter; Suarez-Vidal, Francisco; Gonzalez-Garcia, Javier

2015-08-01

The Gulf of California, Mexico, accommodates ~90% of North America-Pacific plate relative motion. While most of this motion occurs on marine transform faults and spreading centers, several fault segments in the central Gulf come close to peninsular Baja California. Here we present Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data near the Ballenas transform fault, separating the peninsula from Angel de la Guarda Island. We observe interseismic motion between June 2004 and May 2009 and displacements associated with the 3 August 2009 Mw 6.9 earthquake. From the interseismic data we estimate a locking depth of 9-12.5 km and a slip rate of 44.9-48.1 mm/yr, indicating that faults east of Angel de la Guarda deform at negligible rates and that the Ballenas Transform accommodates virtually all of the relative motion between the North American plate and the Baja California microplate. Our preferred model for coseismic slip on a finite rectangular fault plane suggests 1.3 m of strike-slip displacement along a vertical rupture plane that is 60 km long and extends from the surface to a depth of 13 km in the eastern Ballenas Channel, striking parallel to Baja California-North America relative plate motion. These estimates agree with the seismic moment tensor and the location of the major foreshock and aftershocks and are compatible with the fault location identified from high-resolution bathymetric mapping. The geodetic moment is 33% higher than the seismic moment in part because some afterslip and viscous flow in the first month after the earthquake are included in the geodetic estimate. Coulomb stress changes for adjacent faults in the Gulf are consistent with the location of smaller aftershocks following the 2009 main shock and suggest potential triggering of the 12 April 2012 Mw 6.9 Guaymas earthquake.

Characterization of active faulting beneath the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassidy, J.F.; Rogers, Gary C.; Waldhauser, F.

2000-01-01

Southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington State are subject to megathrust earthquakes, deep intraslab events, and earthquakes in the continental crust. Of the three types of earthquakes, the most poorly understood are the crustal events. Despite a high level of seismicity, there is no obvious correlation between the historical crustal earthquakes and the mapped surface faults of the region. On 24 June 1997, a ML = 4.6 earthquake occurred 3-4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, 30 km to the west of Vancouver, British Columbia. This well-recorded earthquake was preceded by 11 days by a felt foreshock (ML = 3.4) and was followed by numerous small aftershocks. This earthquake sequence occurred in one of the few regions of persistent shallow seismic activity in southwestern British Columbia, thus providing an ideal opportunity to attempt to characterize an active near-surface fault. We have computed focal mechanisms and utilized a waveform cross-correlation and joint hypocentral determination routine to obtain accurate relative hypocenters of the mainshock, foreshock, and 53 small aftershocks in an attempt to image the active fault and the extent of rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Both P-nodal and CMT focal mechanisms show thrust faulting for the mainshock and the foreshock. The relocated hypocenters delineate a north-dipping plane at 2-4 km depth, dipping at 53??, in good agreement with the focal mechanism nodal plane dipping to the north at 47??. The rupture area is estimated to be a 1.3-km-diameter circular area, comparable to that estimated using a Brune rupture model with the estimated seismic moment of 3.17 ?? 1015 N m and the stress drop of 45 bars. The temporal sequence indicates a downdip migration of the seismicity along the fault plane. The results of this study provide the first unambiguous evidence for the orientation and sense of motion for active faulting in the Georgia Strait area of British Columbia.

Morphotectonic analysis and 10Be dating of the Kyngarga river terraces (southwestern flank of the Baikal rift system, South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arzhannikova, A.; Arzhannikov, S.; Braucher, R.; Jolivet, M.; Aumaître, G.; Bourlès, D.; Keddadouche, K.

2018-02-01

The formation of the Baikal rift system basins is controlled by active faults separating each basin from the adjacent horsts. The kinematics of these faults is mainly explored through investigation of complex sequences of the fault-intersecting river terraces that record both tectonic and climatic events. This study focuses on the northern margin of the major Tunka basin that develops south-west of Lake Baikal. The development of the basin is controlled by the segmented Tunka fault. We performed a detailed mapping of the Kyngarga river terraces, the best preserved terraces staircase in Baikal rift system, at their intersection with the Tunka fault. In order to decipher the chronology of seismic events and the slip rates along that segment of the fault, key terraces were dated using in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be. We demonstrate that the formation of the terrace staircase occurred entirely during MIS1-MIS2. The obtained data allowed us to estimate the rate of incision at different stages of the terrace staircase formation and the relationship between the vertical and horizontal slip rates along this sub-latitudinal segment of the Tunka fault making respectively 0.8 and 1.12 mm yr- 1 over the past 12.5 ka. Analysis of the paleoseismology and paleoclimate data together with terrace dating provided the possibility to estimate the influence of tectonic and climatic factors on the terrace formation. Our proposed model of the Kyngarga river terrace development shows that the incisions into terraces T3 and T6 were induced by the abrupt climatic warming episodes GI-1 and GI-2, respectively, whereas terraces T5, T4 and T2 were abandoned due to the vertical tectonic displacement along the Tunka fault caused by coseismic ruptures.

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulation on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous Earth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duru, K.; Dunham, E. M.; Bydlon, S. A.; Radhakrishnan, H.

2014-12-01

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface is a useful idealization of a natural earthquake.The conditions relating slip rate and fault shear strength are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws.The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging.In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated, far away from fault zones, to seismic stations and remote areas.Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods.We present a numerical method for:a) enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration;b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along rough faults; c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography.We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts finite differences in space. The finite difference stencils are 6th order accurate in the interior and 3rd order accurate close to the boundaries. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge-Kutta scheme. We have performed extensive numerical experiments using a slip-weakening friction law on non-planar faults, including recent SCEC benchmark problems. We also show simulations on fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults. We are presently extending our method to rate-and-state friction laws and off-fault plasticity.

Geological and mechanical properties on the 3-D fault patch of the rapid creeping Chihshang Fault: a plate suture between Luzon arc and Eurasia in eastern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. C.; Mu, C. H.; Huang, W. J.; Liu, Z. Y. C.; Shirzaei, M.

2017-12-01

The 35-km-long Chihshang Fault is a rapidly creeping thrust at plate suture between the converging Philippine and Eurasian plates in eastern Taiwan. We combined geological investigation, geodetic data, seismological information, and a rate-dependant friction model, to illustrate the mechanical frictional properties and their variations along the strike and the depth (30-km-deep) of the fault. During the interseismic period, the Chihshang Fault is characterized by three different slip behaviours at different depths: 1) abundant micro-seismicity and semi-continuous rapid slip at the depth of 10-20 km seismogenic zone; 2) visco-elastic aseismic slip zone beneath 25 km; 3) seasonal locked/creep switch at depth of 0-2 km. Using elastic dislocation model, 1-D diffusion model, Coulomb stress criterion, and rate-dependent frictional law, we simulate the surface creep curves from the creep meters data. The result shows a rate-strengthening zone with positive frictional property (a-b) in the upper 500 meters of fault, which appears to be locked during the dry season. We tend to interpret it as a result of 300-500 m thick of unconsolidated gravels layers in the footwall of the Chihshang Fault. We also implement an inverse dynamic modeling scheme to estimate the frictional parameter () in depths by taking into account pre-seismic stress and coulomb stress changes associated with co- and post-seismic deformation of the 2003 Mw 6.5 Chengkung earthquake. Model parameters are determined from fitting the transient post-seismic geodetic signal measured at 12 continuous GPS stations. We apply a non-linear optimization algorithm, Genetic Algorithm (GA), to search for the optimum parameters. The optimum is 1.4 ×10-2 along the shallow part of the fault (0-10 km depth) and 1.2 × 10-2 in 22-28 km depth. The inferred frictional parameters are consistent with the laboratory measurements on clay rich fault zone gouges comparable to the Lichi mélange, considering the main rock composition of the Chihshang fault. Our results indicate a possibly strong influence from the surface cover of a few hundreds meter thick unconsolidated deposits (i.e., late Quaternary gravel) and the clay rich fault gouge (i.e. the Lichi Melange) on frictional properties.

Active tectonic extension across the Alto Tiberina normal fault system from GPS data modeling and InSAR velocity maps: new perspectives within TABOO Near Fault Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadacca, Luigi; Anderlini, Letizia; Casarotti, Emanuele; Serpelloni, Enrico; Chiaraluce, Lauro; Polcari, Marco; Albano, Matteo; Stramondo, Salvatore

2014-05-01

The Alto Tiberina fault (ATF) is a low-angle (east-dipping at 15°) normal fault (LANF) 70 km long placed in the Umbria-Marche Apennines (central Italy), characterized by SW-NE oriented extension occurring at rates of 2-3 mm/yr. These rates were measured by continuous GPS stations belonging to several networks, which are denser in the study area thanks to additional sites recently installed in the framework of the INGV national RING network and of the ATF observatory. In this area historical and instrumental earthquakes mainly occur on west-dipping high-angle normal faults. Within this context the ATF has accumulated 2 km of displacement over the past 2 Ma, but at the same time the deformation processes active along this misoriented fault, as well as its mechanical behavior, are still unknown. We tackle this issue by solving for interseismic deformation models obtained by two different methods. At first, through the 2D and 3D finite element modeling, we define the effects of locking depth, synthetic and antithetic fault activity and lithology on the velocity gradient measured along the ATF system. Subsequently through a block modeling approach, we model the GPS velocities by considering the major fault systems as bounds of rotating blocks, while estimating the corresponding geodetic fault slip-rates and maps of heterogeneous fault coupling. Thanks to the latest imaging of the ATF deep structure obtained from seismic profiles, we improve the proposed models by modeling the fault as a complex rough surface to understand where the stress accumulations are located and the interseismic coupling changes. The preliminary results obtained show firstly that the observed extension is mainly accommodated by interseismic deformation on both the ATF and antithetic faults, highlighting the important role of this LANF inside an active tectonic contest. Secondarily, using the ATF surface "topography", we find an interesting correlation between microseismicty and creeping portions of the ATF. Future perspectives within this study is to validate these models using velocity maps and temporal series provided by Differential Interferometric SAR (DInSAR) technique applied to a datasets of ERS 1-2 and ENVISAT SAR images. These data cover a time interval spanning from 1992 to 2010 and have been acquired along both ascending and descending orbit. In addition we will deploy a network of SAR passive Corner Reflectors (CRs) in the proximity of GPS monuments in order to calibrate the results of processing a set of COSMO-SkyMed SAR data and derive velocity maps. Thus the availability of high-resolution data will contribute to understand the mechanics of the LANFs and to evaluate the seismic potential associated to these geologic structures.

Sensor fault-tolerant control for gear-shifting engaging process of automated manual transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Liang; He, Kai; Wang, Xiangyu; Liu, Yahui

2018-01-01

Angular displacement sensor on the actuator of automated manual transmission (AMT) is sensitive to fault, and the sensor fault will disturb its normal control, which affects the entire gear-shifting process of AMT and results in awful riding comfort. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a method of fault-tolerant control for AMT gear-shifting engaging process. By using the measured current of actuator motor and angular displacement of actuator, the gear-shifting engaging load torque table is built and updated before the occurrence of the sensor fault. Meanwhile, residual between estimated and measured angular displacements is used to detect the sensor fault. Once the residual exceeds a determined fault threshold, the sensor fault is detected. Then, switch control is triggered, and the current observer and load torque table estimates an actual gear-shifting position to replace the measured one to continue controlling the gear-shifting process. Numerical and experiment tests are carried out to evaluate the reliability and feasibility of proposed methods, and the results show that the performance of estimation and control is satisfactory.

Fault Management Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Stephen B.; Ghoshal, Sudipto; Haste, Deepak; Moore, Craig

2017-01-01

This paper describes the theory and considerations in the application of metrics to measure the effectiveness of fault management. Fault management refers here to the operational aspect of system health management, and as such is considered as a meta-control loop that operates to preserve or maximize the system's ability to achieve its goals in the face of current or prospective failure. As a suite of control loops, the metrics to estimate and measure the effectiveness of fault management are similar to those of classical control loops in being divided into two major classes: state estimation, and state control. State estimation metrics can be classified into lower-level subdivisions for detection coverage, detection effectiveness, fault isolation and fault identification (diagnostics), and failure prognosis. State control metrics can be classified into response determination effectiveness and response effectiveness. These metrics are applied to each and every fault management control loop in the system, for each failure to which they apply, and probabilistically summed to determine the effectiveness of these fault management control loops to preserve the relevant system goals that they are intended to protect.

Source parameters of the 2013, Ms 7.0, Lushan earthquake and the characteristics of the near-fault strong ground motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Fengfan; Meng, Lingyuan

2016-04-01

The April 20, 2013 Ms 7.0, earthquake in Lushan city, Sichuan province of China occurred as the result of east-west oriented reverse-type motion on a north-south striking fault. The source location suggests the event occurred on the Southern part of Longmenshan fault at a depth of 13km. The maximum intensity is up to VIII to IX at Boxing and Lushan city, which are located in the meizoseismal area. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic source process with the source mechanism and empirical relationships, estimated the strong ground motion in the near-fault field based on the Brune's circle model. A dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties at Boxing and Lushan city, respectively. The results indicate that the frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Lushan earthquake, which is actually different from the overshoot activity of the Wenchuan earthquake. Moreover, we discussed the characteristics of the strong ground motion in the near-fault field, that the broadband synthetic seismogram ground motion predictions for Boxing and Lushan city produced larger peak values, shorter durations and higher frequency contents. It indicates that the factors in near-fault strong ground motion was under the influence of higher effect stress drop and asperity slip distributions on the fault plane. This work is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41404045) and by Science for Earthquake Resilience of CEA (XH14055Y).

Simplex GPS and InSAR Inversion Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnellan, Andrea; Parker, Jay W.; Lyzenga, Gregory A.; Pierce, Marlon E.

2012-01-01

Changes in the shape of the Earth's surface can be routinely measured with precisions better than centimeters. Processes below the surface often drive these changes and as a result, investigators require models with inversion methods to characterize the sources. Simplex inverts any combination of GPS (global positioning system), UAVSAR (uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar), and InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) data simultaneously for elastic response from fault and fluid motions. It can be used to solve for multiple faults and parameters, all of which can be specified or allowed to vary. The software can be used to study long-term tectonic motions and the faults responsible for those motions, or can be used to invert for co-seismic slip from earthquakes. Solutions involving estimation of fault motion and changes in fluid reservoirs such as magma or water are possible. Any arbitrary number of faults or parameters can be considered. Simplex specifically solves for any of location, geometry, fault slip, and expansion/contraction of a single or multiple faults. It inverts GPS and InSAR data for elastic dislocations in a half-space. Slip parameters include strike slip, dip slip, and tensile dislocations. It includes a map interface for both setting up the models and viewing the results. Results, including faults, and observed, computed, and residual displacements, are output in text format, a map interface, and can be exported to KML. The software interfaces with the QuakeTables database allowing a user to select existing fault parameters or data. Simplex can be accessed through the QuakeSim portal graphical user interface or run from a UNIX command line.

Self-constrained inversion of microgravity data along a segment of the Irpinia fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Re, Davide; Florio, Giovanni; Ferranti, Luigi; Ialongo, Simone; Castiello, Gabriella

2016-01-01

A microgravity survey was completed to precisely locate and better characterize the near-surface geometry of a recent fault with small throw in a mountainous area in the Southern Apennines (Italy). The site is on a segment of the Irpinia fault, which is the source of the M6.9 1980 earthquake. This fault cuts a few meter of Mesozoic carbonate bedrock and its younger, mostly Holocene continental deposits cover. The amplitude of the complete Bouguer anomaly along two profiles across the fault is about 50 μGal. The data were analyzed and interpreted according to a self-constrained strategy, where some rapid estimation of source parameters was later used as constraint for the inversion. The fault has been clearly identified and localized in its horizontal position and depth. Interesting features in the overburden have been identified and their interpretation has allowed us to estimate the fault slip-rate, which is consistent with independent geological estimates.

Constraining slip rates and spacings for active normal faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Patience A.; Roberts, Gerald P.

2001-12-01

Numerous observations of extensional provinces indicate that neighbouring faults commonly slip at different rates and, moreover, may be active over different time intervals. These published observations include variations in slip rate measured along-strike of a fault array or fault zone, as well as significant across-strike differences in the timing and rates of movement on faults that have a similar orientation with respect to the regional stress field. Here we review published examples from the western USA, the North Sea, and central Greece, and present new data from the Italian Apennines that support the idea that such variations are systematic and thus to some extent predictable. The basis for the prediction is that: (1) the way in which a fault grows is fundamentally controlled by the ratio of maximum displacement to length, and (2) the regional strain rate must remain approximately constant through time. We show how data on fault lengths and displacements can be used to model the observed patterns of long-term slip rate where measured values are sparse. Specifically, we estimate the magnitude of spatial variation in slip rate along-strike and relate it to the across-strike spacing between active faults.

Detailed ground surface displacement and fault ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake revealed by SAR and GNSS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, T.; Yarai, H.; Morishita, Y.; Kawamoto, S.; Fujiwara, S.; Nakano, T.

2016-12-01

We report ground displacement associated with the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake obtained by ALOS-2 SAR and GNSS data. For the SAR analyses, we applied InSAR, MAI, and pixel offset methods, which has successfully provided a 3D displacement field showing the widely- and locally-distributed deformation. The obtained displacement field shows clear displacement boundaries linearly along the Futagawa, the Hinagu, and the Denokuchi faults across which the sign of displacement component turns to be opposite, suggesting that the fault ruptures occurred there. Our fault model for the main shock suggests that the main rupture occurred on the Futagawa fault with a right-lateral motion including a slight normal fault motion. Due to the normal faulting movement, the northern side of the active fault subsides with approximately 2 m. The rupture on the Futagawa fault extends into the Aso caldera with slightly shifting the position northward. Of note, the fault plane oppositely dips toward southeast. It may be a conjugate fault against the main fault. In the western side of the Futagawa fault, the slip on the Hinagu fault, in which the Mj6.5 and Mj6.4 foreshocks occurred with a pure right-lateral motion, is also deeply involved with the main shock. This fault rupture released the amount of approximately 30 percent of the total seismic moment. The hypocenter is determined near the fault and its focal mechanism is consistent with the estimated slip motion of this fault plane, maybe suggesting that the rupture started at this fault and proceeded toward the Futagawa fault eastward. Acknowledgements: ALOS-2 data were provided from the Earthquake Working Group under a cooperative research contract with JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). The ownership of ALOS-2 data belongs to JAXA.

Fast and accurate spectral estimation for online detection of partial broken bar in induction motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Anik Kumar; Naha, Arunava; Routray, Aurobinda; Deb, Alok Kanti

2018-01-01

In this paper, an online and real-time system is presented for detecting partial broken rotor bar (BRB) of inverter-fed squirrel cage induction motors under light load condition. This system with minor modifications can detect any fault that affects the stator current. A fast and accurate spectral estimator based on the theory of Rayleigh quotient is proposed for detecting the spectral signature of BRB. The proposed spectral estimator can precisely determine the relative amplitude of fault sidebands and has low complexity compared to available high-resolution subspace-based spectral estimators. Detection of low-amplitude fault components has been improved by removing the high-amplitude fundamental frequency using an extended-Kalman based signal conditioner. Slip is estimated from the stator current spectrum for accurate localization of the fault component. Complexity and cost of sensors are minimal as only a single-phase stator current is required. The hardware implementation has been carried out on an Intel i7 based embedded target ported through the Simulink Real-Time. Evaluation of threshold and detectability of faults with different conditions of load and fault severity are carried out with empirical cumulative distribution function.

An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

Fault detection using a two-model test for changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholtz, P.; Smyth, P.

1992-01-01

This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.

Numerical Investigation of Earthquake Nucleation on a Laboratory-Scale Heterogeneous Fault with Rate-and-State Friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, N.; Lapusta, N.

2014-12-01

Many large earthquakes on natural faults are preceded by smaller events, often termed foreshocks, that occur close in time and space to the larger event that follows. Understanding the origin of such events is important for understanding earthquake physics. Unique laboratory experiments of earthquake nucleation in a meter-scale slab of granite (McLaskey and Kilgore, 2013; McLaskey et al., 2014) demonstrate that sample-scale nucleation processes are also accompanied by much smaller seismic events. One potential explanation for these foreshocks is that they occur on small asperities - or bumps - on the fault interface, which may also be the locations of smaller critical nucleation size. We explore this possibility through 3D numerical simulations of a heterogeneous 2D fault embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space, in an attempt to qualitatively reproduce the laboratory observations of foreshocks. In our model, the simulated fault interface is governed by rate-and-state friction with laboratory-relevant frictional properties, fault loading, and fault size. To create favorable locations for foreshocks, the fault surface heterogeneity is represented as patches of increased normal stress, decreased characteristic slip distance L, or both. Our simulation results indicate that one can create a rate-and-state model of the experimental observations. Models with a combination of higher normal stress and lower L at the patches are closest to matching the laboratory observations of foreshocks in moment magnitude, source size, and stress drop. In particular, we find that, when the local compression is increased, foreshocks can occur on patches that are smaller than theoretical critical nucleation size estimates. The additional inclusion of lower L for these patches helps to keep stress drops within the range observed in experiments, and is compatible with the asperity model of foreshock sources, since one would expect more compressed spots to be smoother (and hence have lower L). In this heterogeneous rate-and-state fault model, the foreshocks interact with each other and with the overall nucleation process through their postseismic slip. The interplay amongst foreshocks, and between foreshocks and the larger-scale nucleation process, is a topic of our future work.

Distributed processing of a GPS receiver network for a regional ionosphere map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Kwang Ho; Hoo Lim, Joon; Yoo, Won Jae; Lee, Hyung Keun

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a distributed processing method applicable to GPS receivers in a network to generate a regional ionosphere map accurately and reliably. For accuracy, the proposed method is operated by multiple local Kalman filters and Kriging estimators. Each local Kalman filter is applied to a dual-frequency receiver to estimate the receiver’s differential code bias and vertical ionospheric delays (VIDs) at different ionospheric pierce points. The Kriging estimator selects and combines several VID estimates provided by the local Kalman filters to generate the VID estimate at each ionospheric grid point. For reliability, the proposed method uses receiver fault detectors and satellite fault detectors. Each receiver fault detector compares the VID estimates of the same local area provided by different local Kalman filters. Each satellite fault detector compares the VID estimate of each local area with that projected from the other local areas. Compared with the traditional centralized processing method, the proposed method is advantageous in that it considerably reduces the computational burden of each single Kalman filter and enables flexible fault detection, isolation, and reconfiguration capability. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, several experiments with field collected measurements were performed.

Safety and reliability analysis in a polyvinyl chloride batch process using dynamic simulator-case study: Loss of containment incident.

PubMed

Rizal, Datu; Tani, Shinichi; Nishiyama, Kimitoshi; Suzuki, Kazuhiko

2006-10-11

In this paper, a novel methodology in batch plant safety and reliability analysis is proposed using a dynamic simulator. A batch process involving several safety objects (e.g. sensors, controller, valves, etc.) is activated during the operational stage. The performance of the safety objects is evaluated by the dynamic simulation and a fault propagation model is generated. By using the fault propagation model, an improved fault tree analysis (FTA) method using switching signal mode (SSM) is developed for estimating the probability of failures. The timely dependent failures can be considered as unavailability of safety objects that can cause the accidents in a plant. Finally, the rank of safety object is formulated as performance index (PI) and can be estimated using the importance measures. PI shows the prioritization of safety objects that should be investigated for safety improvement program in the plants. The output of this method can be used for optimal policy in safety object improvement and maintenance. The dynamic simulator was constructed using Visual Modeler (VM, the plant simulator, developed by Omega Simulation Corp., Japan). A case study is focused on the loss of containment (LOC) incident at polyvinyl chloride (PVC) batch process which is consumed the hazardous material, vinyl chloride monomer (VCM).

Identification of active fault using analysis of derivatives with vertical second based on gravity anomaly data (Case study: Seulimeum fault in Sumatera fault system)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hududillah, Teuku Hafid; Simanjuntak, Andrean V. H.; Husni, Muhammad

2017-07-01

Gravity is a non-destructive geophysical technique that has numerous application in engineering and environmental field like locating a fault zone. The purpose of this study is to spot the Seulimeum fault system in Iejue, Aceh Besar (Indonesia) by using a gravity technique and correlate the result with geologic map and conjointly to grasp a trend pattern of fault system. An estimation of subsurface geological structure of Seulimeum fault has been done by using gravity field anomaly data. Gravity anomaly data which used in this study is from Topex that is processed up to Free Air Correction. The step in the Next data processing is applying Bouger correction and Terrin Correction to obtain complete Bouger anomaly that is topographically dependent. Subsurface modeling is done using the Gav2DC for windows software. The result showed a low residual gravity value at a north half compared to south a part of study space that indicated a pattern of fault zone. Gravity residual was successfully correlate with the geologic map that show the existence of the Seulimeum fault in this study space. The study of earthquake records can be used for differentiating the active and non active fault elements, this gives an indication that the delineated fault elements are active.

Groundwater withdrawal in the Central Valley, California: implications for San Andreas Fault stressing and lithosphere rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren, P.; Liu, Z.; Ali, S. T.; Farr, T.; Faunt, C. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic perturbations to crustal loading due to groundwater pumping are increasingly recognized as causing changes in nearby fault stresses. We present preliminary analysis of crustal unloading in the Central Valley (CV), California, for the period 2006-2010 to infer Coulomb stress changes on the central San Andreas Fault (CSAF), lithospheric rheology, and system memory due to more than a century of groundwater withdrawal in the southern CV. We use data-driven unloading estimates to drive three-dimensional (3-D) finite element method models and compare model vertical surface deformation rates with observed GPS uplift rates outside the CV. Groundwater level changes are observed through well water elevation changes and through the resultant surface deformation (subsidence) by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and through broader scale changes in gravity from the GRACE satellite time variable gravity data [Famiglietti et al., 2011] that constrain the overall water volume changes. Combining InSAR with well-water data we are able to estimate the aquifer skeletal elastic and inelastic response and through a linear inversion derive the water volume (load) changes across the Central Valley and compare them with GRACE-inferred groundwater changes. Preliminary 3-D finite element method modeling that considers elastic and viscosity structure in the lithosphere gives three interesting results: 1) elastic models poorly fit the uplift rates near the SAF; 2) viscoelastic models that simulate different unloading histories show the past history of groundwater unloading has significant residual uplift rates and fault stress changes; 3) Coulomb stress change varies from inhibited on the locked (Carrizo) section to promoted on the creeping section of the SAF north of Parkfield. Thus, 3D models that account for lithosphere rheology, loading history viscous relaxation, have significant implications for longer-term time-dependent deformation, stress perturbation, and earthquake hazard on the nearby faults. Reference: Famiglietti, J. S., M. Lo, S. L. Ho, J. Bethune, K. J. Anderson, T. H. Syed, S. C. Swenson, C. R. de Linage, and M. Rodell, 2011, Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L03403, doi:10.1029/2010GL046442.

Source Model of Huge Subduction Earthquakes for Strong Ground Motion Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.

2012-12-01

It is a quite important issue for strong ground motion prediction to construct the source model of huge subduction earthquakes. Irikura and Miyake (2001, 2011) proposed the characterized source model for strong ground motion prediction, which consists of plural strong ground motion generation area (SMGA, Miyake et al., 2003) patches on the source fault. We obtained the SMGA source models for many events using the empirical Green's function method and found the SMGA size has an empirical scaling relationship with seismic moment. Therefore, the SMGA size can be assumed from that empirical relation under giving the seismic moment for anticipated earthquakes. Concerning to the setting of the SMGAs position, the information of the fault segment is useful for inland crustal earthquakes. For the 1995 Kobe earthquake, three SMGA patches are obtained and each Nojima, Suma, and Suwayama segment respectively has one SMGA from the SMGA modeling (e.g. Kamae and Irikura, 1998). For the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Asano and Iwata (2012) estimated the SMGA source model and obtained four SMGA patches on the source fault. Total SMGA area follows the extension of the empirical scaling relationship between the seismic moment and the SMGA area for subduction plate-boundary earthquakes, and it shows the applicability of the empirical scaling relationship for the SMGA. The positions of two SMGAs are in Miyagi-Oki segment and those other two SMGAs are in Fukushima-Oki and Ibaraki-Oki segments, respectively. Asano and Iwata (2012) also pointed out that all SMGAs are corresponding to the historical source areas of 1930's. Those SMGAs do not overlap the huge slip area in the shallower part of the source fault which estimated by teleseismic data, long-period strong motion data, and/or geodetic data during the 2011 mainshock. This fact shows the huge slip area does not contribute to strong ground motion generation (10-0.1s). The information of the fault segment in the subduction zone, or historical earthquake source area is also applicable for the construction of SMGA settings for strong ground motion prediction for future earthquakes.

Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.; Stiffler, J. J.; Bryant, L. A.; Petersen, P. L.

1986-01-01

CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, Third Generation) helps estimate reliability of complex, redundant, fault-tolerant systems. Program specifically designed for evaluation of fault-tolerant avionics systems. However, CARE III general enough for use in evaluation of other systems as well.

Slicing up the San Francisco Bay Area: Block kinematics and fault slip rates from GPS-derived surface velocities

USGS Publications Warehouse

d'Alessio, M. A.; Johanson, I.A.; Burgmann, R.; Schmidt, D.A.; Murray, M.H.

2005-01-01

Observations of surface deformation allow us to determine the kinematics of faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. We present the Bay Area velocity unification (BA??VU??, "bay view"), a compilation of over 200 horizontal surface velocities computed from campaign-style and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1993 to 2003. We interpret this interseismic velocity field using a three-dimensional block model to determine the relative contributions of block motion, elastic strain accumulation, and shallow aseismic creep. The total relative motion between the Pacific plate and the rigid Sierra Nevada/Great Valley (SNGV) microplate is 37.9 ?? 0.6 mm yr-1 directed toward N30.4??W ?? 0.8?? at San Francisco (??2??). Fault slip rates from our preferred model are typically within the error bounds of geologic estimates but provide a better fit to geodetic data (notable right-lateral slip rates in mm yr-1: San Gregorio fault, 2.4 ?? 1.0; West Napa fault, 4.0 ?? 3.0; zone of faulting along the eastern margin of the Coast Range, 5.4 ?? 1.0; and Mount Diablo thrust, 3.9 ?? 1.0 of reverse slip and 4.0 ?? 0.2 of right-lateral strike slip). Slip on the northern Calaveras is partitioned between both the West Napa and Concord/ Green Valley fault systems. The total convergence across the Bay Area is negligible. Poles of rotation for Bay Area blocks progress systematically from the North America-Pacific to North America-SNGV poles. The resulting present-day relative motion cannot explain the strike of most Bay Area faults, but fault strike does loosely correlate with inferred plate motions at the time each fault initiated. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Period-dependent source rupture behavior of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated by multi period-band Bayesian waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Previous studies for the period-dependent source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (e.g., Koper et al., 2011; Lay et al., 2012) were based on the short and long period source models using different method. Kubo et al. (2013) obtained source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using multi period-bands waveform data by a common inversion method and discussed its period-dependent source characteristics. In this study, to achieve more in detail spatiotemporal source rupture behavior of this event, we introduce a new fault surface model having finer sub-fault size and estimate the source models in multi period-bands using a Bayesian inversion method combined with a multi-time-window method. Three components of velocity waveforms at 25 stations of K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net of NIED are used in this analysis. The target period band is 10-100 s. We divide this period band into three period bands (10-25 s, 25-50 s, and 50-100 s) and estimate a kinematic source model in each period band using a Bayesian inversion method with MCMC sampling (e.g., Fukuda & Johnson, 2008; Minson et al., 2013, 2014). The parameterization of spatiotemporal slip distribution follows the multi-time-window method (Hartzell & Heaton, 1983). The Green's functions are calculated by the 3D FDM (GMS; Aoi & Fujiwara, 1999) using a 3D velocity structure model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012). The assumed fault surface model is based on the Pacific plate boundary of JIVSM and is divided into 384 subfaults of about 16 * 16 km^2. The estimated source models in multi period-bands show the following source image: (1) First deep rupture off Miyagi at 0-60 s toward down-dip mostly radiating relatively short period (10-25 s) seismic waves. (2) Shallow rupture off Miyagi at 45-90 s toward up-dip with long duration radiating long period (50-100 s) seismic wave. (3) Second deep rupture off Miyagi at 60-105 s toward down-dip radiating longer period seismic waves then that of the first deep rupture. (4) Deep rupture off Fukushima at 90-135 s. The dominant-period difference of the seismic-wave radiation between two deep ruptures off Miyagi may result from the mechanism that small-scale heterogeneities on the fault are removed by the first rupture. This difference can be also interpreted by the concept of multi-scale dynamic rupture (Ide & Aochi, 2005).

The most recent large earthquake on the Rodgers Creek fault, San Francisco bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hecker, S.; Pantosti, D.; Schwartz, D.P.; Hamilton, J.C.; Reidy, L.M.; Powers, T.J.

2005-01-01

The Rodgers Creek fault (RCF) is a principal component of the San Andreas fault system north of San Francisco. No evidence appears in the historical record of a large earthquake on the RCF, implying that the most recent earthquake (MRE) occurred before 1824, when a Franciscan mission was built near the fault at Sonoma, and probably before 1776, when a mission and presidio were built in San Francisco. The first appearance of nonnative pollen in the stratigraphic record at the Triangle G Ranch study site on the south-central reach of the RCF confirms that the MRE occurred before local settlement and the beginning of livestock grazing. Chronological modeling of earthquake age using radiocarbon-dated charcoal from near the top of a faulted alluvial sequence at the site indicates that the MRE occurred no earlier than A.D. 1690 and most likely occurred after A.D. 1715. With these age constraints, we know that the elapsed time since the MRE on the RCF is more than 181 years and less than 315 years and is probably between 229 and 290 years. This elapsed time is similar to published recurrence-interval estimates of 131 to 370 years (preferred value of 230 years) and 136 to 345 years (mean of 205 years), calculated from geologic data and a regional earthquake model, respectively. Importantly, then, the elapsed time may have reached or exceeded the average recurrence time for the fault. The age of the MRE on the RCF is similar to the age of prehistoric surface rupture on the northern and southern sections of the Hayward fault to the south. This suggests possible rupture scenarios that involve simultaneous rupture of the Rodgers Creek and Hayward faults. A buried channel is offset 2.2 (+ 1.2, - 0.8) m along one side of a pressure ridge at the Triangle G Ranch site. This provides a minimum estimate of right-lateral slip during the MRE at this location. Total slip at the site may be similar to, but is probably greater than, the 2 (+ 0.3, - 0.2) m measured previously at the nearby Beebe Ranch site.

UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; ,

2015-01-01

With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

New insights on active fault geometries in the Mentawai region of Sumatra, Indonesia, from broadband waveform modeling of earthquake source parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Wei, S.; Bradley, K. E.

2017-12-01

Global earthquake catalogs provide important first-order constraints on the geometries of active faults. However, the accuracies of both locations and focal mechanisms in these catalogs are typically insufficient to resolve detailed fault geometries. This issue is particularly critical in subduction zones, where most great earthquakes occur. The Slab 1.0 model (Hayes et al. 2012), which was derived from global earthquake catalogs, has smooth fault geometries, and cannot adequately address local structural complexities that are critical for understanding earthquake rupture patterns, coseismic slip distributions, and geodetically monitored interseismic coupling. In this study, we conduct careful relocation and waveform modeling of earthquake source parameters to reveal fault geometries in greater detail. We take advantage of global data and conduct broadband waveform modeling for medium size earthquakes (M>4.5) to refine their source parameters, which include locations and fault plane solutions. The refined source parameters can greatly improve the imaging of fault geometry (e.g., Wang et al., 2017). We apply these approaches to earthquakes recorded since 1990 in the Mentawai region offshore of central Sumatra. Our results indicate that the uncertainty of the horizontal location, depth and dip angle estimation are as small as 5 km, 2 km and 5 degrees, respectively. The refined catalog shows that the 2005 and 2009 "back-thrust" sequences in Mentawai region actually occurred on a steeply landward-dipping fault, contradicting previous studies that inferred a seaward-dipping backthrust. We interpret these earthquakes as `unsticking' of the Sumatran accretionary wedge along a backstop fault that separates accreted material of the wedge from the strong Sunda lithosphere, or reactivation of an old normal fault buried beneath the forearc basin. We also find that the seismicity on the Sunda megathrust deviates in location from Slab 1.0 by up to 7 km, with along strike variation. The refined megathrust geometry will improve our understanding of the tectonic setting in this region, and place further constraints on rupture processes of the hazardous megathrust.

Active Fault Near-Source Zones Within and Bordering the State of California for the 1997 Uniform Building Code

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Toppozada, Tousson R.; Cao, T.; Cramer, C.H.; Reichle, M.S.; Bryant, W.A.

2000-01-01

The fault sources in the Project 97 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the state of California were used to construct maps for defining near-source seismic coefficients, Na and Nv, incorporated in the 1997 Uniform Building Code (ICBO 1997). The near-source factors are based on the distance from a known active fault that is classified as either Type A or Type B. To determine the near-source factor, four pieces of geologic information are required: (1) recognizing a fault and determining whether or not the fault has been active during the Holocene, (2) identifying the location of the fault at or beneath the ground surface, (3) estimating the slip rate of the fault, and (4) estimating the maximum earthquake magnitude for each fault segment. This paper describes the information used to produce the fault classifications and distances.

Using Fault Trees to Advance Understanding of Diagnostic Errors.

PubMed

Rogith, Deevakar; Iyengar, M Sriram; Singh, Hardeep

2017-11-01

Diagnostic errors annually affect at least 5% of adults in the outpatient setting in the United States. Formal analytic techniques are only infrequently used to understand them, in part because of the complexity of diagnostic processes and clinical work flows involved. In this article, diagnostic errors were modeled using fault tree analysis (FTA), a form of root cause analysis that has been successfully used in other high-complexity, high-risk contexts. How factors contributing to diagnostic errors can be systematically modeled by FTA to inform error understanding and error prevention is demonstrated. A team of three experts reviewed 10 published cases of diagnostic error and constructed fault trees. The fault trees were modeled according to currently available conceptual frameworks characterizing diagnostic error. The 10 trees were then synthesized into a single fault tree to identify common contributing factors and pathways leading to diagnostic error. FTA is a visual, structured, deductive approach that depicts the temporal sequence of events and their interactions in a formal logical hierarchy. The visual FTA enables easier understanding of causative processes and cognitive and system factors, as well as rapid identification of common pathways and interactions in a unified fashion. In addition, it enables calculation of empirical estimates for causative pathways. Thus, fault trees might provide a useful framework for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of diagnostic errors. Future directions include establishing validity and reliability by modeling a wider range of error cases, conducting quantitative evaluations, and undertaking deeper exploration of other FTA capabilities. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Faulting and off-axis submarine massive sulfide accumulation at slow spreading mid-ocean ridges: A numerical modeling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, C.; Theissen-Krah, S.; Hannington, M.; Rüpke, L.; Petersen, S.

2017-06-01

The potential of mining seafloor massive sulfide deposits for metals such as Cu, Zn, and Au is currently debated. One key challenge is to predict where the largest deposits worth mining might form, which in turn requires understanding the pattern of subseafloor hydrothermal mass and energy transport. Numerical models of heat and fluid flow are applied to illustrate the important role of fault zone properties (permeability and width) in controlling mass accumulation at hydrothermal vents at slow spreading ridges. We combine modeled mass-flow rates, vent temperatures, and vent field dimensions with the known fluid chemistry at the fault-controlled Logatchev 1 hydrothermal field of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. We predict that the 135 kilotons of SMS at this site (estimated by other studies) can have accumulated with a minimum depositional efficiency of 5% in the known duration of hydrothermal venting (58,200 year age of the deposit). In general, the most productive faults must provide an efficient fluid pathway while at the same time limit cooling due to mixing with entrained cold seawater. This balance is best met by faults that are just wide and permeable enough to control a hydrothermal plume rising through the oceanic crust. Model runs with increased basal heat input, mimicking a heat flow contribution from along-axis, lead to higher mass fluxes and vent temperatures, capable of significantly higher SMS accumulation rates. Nonsteady state conditions, such as the influence of a cooling magmatic intrusion beneath the fault zone, also can temporarily increase the mass flux while sustaining high vent temperatures.

Modelling Fault Zone Evolution: Implications for fluid flow.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moir, H.; Lunn, R. J.; Shipton, Z. K.

2009-04-01

Flow simulation models are of major interest to many industries including hydrocarbon, nuclear waste, sequestering of carbon dioxide and mining. One of the major uncertainties in these models is in predicting the permeability of faults, principally in the detailed structure of the fault zone. Studying the detailed structure of a fault zone is difficult because of the inaccessible nature of sub-surface faults and also because of their highly complex nature; fault zones show a high degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity i.e. the properties of the fault change as you move along the fault, they also change with time. It is well understood that faults influence fluid flow characteristics. They may act as a conduit or a barrier or even as both by blocking flow across the fault while promoting flow along it. Controls on fault hydraulic properties include cementation, stress field orientation, fault zone components and fault zone geometry. Within brittle rocks, such as granite, fracture networks are limited but provide the dominant pathway for flow within this rock type. Research at the EU's Soultz-sous-Forệt Hot Dry Rock test site [Evans et al., 2005] showed that 95% of flow into the borehole was associated with a single fault zone at 3490m depth, and that 10 open fractures account for the majority of flow within the zone. These data underline the critical role of faults in deep flow systems and the importance of achieving a predictive understanding of fault hydraulic properties. To improve estimates of fault zone permeability, it is important to understand the underlying hydro-mechanical processes of fault zone formation. In this research, we explore the spatial and temporal evolution of fault zones in brittle rock through development and application of a 2D hydro-mechanical finite element model, MOPEDZ. The authors have previously presented numerical simulations of the development of fault linkage structures from two or three pre-existing joints, the results of which compare well to features observed in mapped exposures. For these simple simulations from a small number of pre-existing joints the fault zone evolves in a predictable way: fault linkage is governed by three key factors: Stress ratio of s1 (maximum compressive stress) to s3(minimum compressive stress), original geometry of the pre-existing structures (contractional vs. dilational geometries) and the orientation of the principle stress direction (σ1) to the pre-existing structures. In this paper we present numerical simulations of the temporal and spatial evolution of fault linkage structures from many pre-existing joints. The initial location, size and orientations of these joints are based on field observations of cooling joints in granite from the Sierra Nevada. We show that the constantly evolving geometry and local stress field perturbations contribute significantly to fault zone evolution. The location and orientations of linkage structures previously predicted by the simple simulations are consistent with the predicted geometries in the more complex fault zones, however, the exact location at which individual structures form is not easily predicted. Markedly different fault zone geometries are predicted when the pre-existing joints are rotated with respect to the maximum compressive stress. In particular, fault surfaces range from evolving smooth linear structures to producing complex ‘stepped' fault zone geometries. These geometries have a significant effect on simulations of along and across-fault flow.

Automated rapid finite fault inversion for megathrust earthquakes: Application to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) great earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, Roberto; Cummins, Phil; Dettmer, Jan

2016-04-01

Rapid estimation of the spatial and temporal rupture characteristics of large megathrust earthquakes by finite fault inversion is important for disaster mitigation. For example, estimates of the spatio-temporal evolution of rupture can be used to evaluate population exposure to tsunami waves and ground shaking soon after the event by providing more accurate predictions than possible with point source approximations. In addition, rapid inversion results can reveal seismic source complexity to guide additional, more detailed subsequent studies. This work develops a method to rapidly estimate the slip distribution of megathrust events while reducing subjective parameter choices by automation. The method is simple yet robust and we show that it provides excellent preliminary rupture models as soon as 30 minutes for three great earthquakes in the South-American subduction zone. This may slightly change for other regions depending on seismic station coverage but method can be applied to any subduction region. The inversion is based on W-phase data since it is rapidly and widely available and of low amplitude which avoids clipping at close stations for large events. In addition, prior knowledge of the slab geometry (e.g. SLAB 1.0) is applied and rapid W-phase point source information (time delay and centroid location) is used to constrain the fault geometry and extent. Since the linearization by multiple time window (MTW) parametrization requires regularization, objective smoothing is achieved by the discrepancy principle in two fully automated steps. First, the residuals are estimated assuming unknown noise levels, and second, seeking a subsequent solution which fits the data to noise level. The MTW scheme is applied with positivity constraints and a solution is obtained by an efficient non-negative least squares solver. Systematic application of the algorithm to the Maule (2010), Iquique (2014) and Illapel (2015) events illustrates that rapid finite fault inversion with teleseismic data is feasible and provides meaningful results. The results for the three events show excellent data fits and are consistent with other solutions showing most of the slip occurring close to the trench for the Maule an Illapel events and some deeper slip for the Iquique event. Importantly, the Illapel source model predicts tsunami waveforms of close agreement with observed waveforms. Finally, we develop a new Bayesian approach to approximate uncertainties as part of the rapid inversion scheme with positivity constraints. Uncertainties are estimated by approximating the posterior distribution as a multivariate log-normal distribution. While solving for the posterior adds some additional computational cost, we illustrate that uncertainty estimation is important for meaningful interpretation of finite fault models.

Earthquake fracture energy inferred from kinematic rupture models on extended faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinti, E.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

2005-01-01

We estimate fracture energy on extended faults for several recent earthquakes by retrieving dynamic traction evolution at each point on the fault plane from slip history imaged by inverting ground motion waveforms. We define the breakdown work (Wb) as the excess of work over some minimum traction level achieved during slip. Wb is equivalent to "seismological" fracture energy (G) in previous investigations. Our numerical approach uses slip velocity as a boundary condition on the fault. We employ a three-dimensional finite difference algorithm to compute the dynamic traction evolution in the time domain during the earthquake rupture. We estimate Wb by calculating the scalar product between dynamic traction and slip velocity vectors. This approach does not require specifying a constitutive law and assuming dynamic traction to be collinear with slip velocity. If these vectors are not collinear, the inferred breakdown work depends on the initial traction level. We show that breakdown work depends on the square of slip. The spatial distribution of breakdown work in a single earthquake is strongly correlated with the slip distribution. Breakdown work density and its integral over the fault, breakdown energy, scale with seismic moment according to a power law (with exponent 0.59 and 1.18, respectively). Our estimates of breakdown work range between 4 ?? 105 and 2 ?? 107 J/m2 for earthquakes having moment magnitudes between 5.6 and 7.2. We also compare our inferred values with geologic surface energies. This comparison might suggest that breakdown work for large earthquakes goes primarily into heat production. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Statistical Methods for Quality Control of Steel Coils Manufacturing Process using Generalized Linear Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Díaz, J. Carlos

2009-11-01

Fault detection and diagnosis is an important problem in process engineering. Process equipments are subject to malfunctions during operation. Galvanized steel is a value added product, furnishing effective performance by combining the corrosion resistance of zinc with the strength and formability of steel. Fault detection and diagnosis is an important problem in continuous hot dip galvanizing and the increasingly stringent quality requirements in automotive industry has also demanded ongoing efforts in process control to make the process more robust. When faults occur, they change the relationship among these observed variables. This work compares different statistical regression models proposed in the literature for estimating the quality of galvanized steel coils on the basis of short time histories. Data for 26 batches were available. Five variables were selected for monitoring the process: the steel strip velocity, four bath temperatures and bath level. The entire data consisting of 48 galvanized steel coils was divided into sets. The first training data set was 25 conforming coils and the second data set was 23 nonconforming coils. Logistic regression is a modeling tool in which the dependent variable is categorical. In most applications, the dependent variable is binary. The results show that the logistic generalized linear models do provide good estimates of quality coils and can be useful for quality control in manufacturing process.

3D Numerical Models of the Effect of Diking on the Faulting Pattern at Incipient Continental Rifts and Steady-State Spreading Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, X.; Choi, E.; Buck, W. R.

2015-12-01

The offset of faults and related topographic relief varies hugely at both continental rifts and mid-ocean ridges (MORs). In some areas fault offset is measured in 10s of meters while in places marked by core complexes it is measured in 10s of kilometers. Variation in the magma supply is thought to control much of these differences. Magma supply is most usefully described by the ratio (M) between rates of lithospheric extension accommodated by magmatic dike intrusion and that occurring via faulting. 2D models with different values of M successfully explain much of the observed cross-sectional structure seen at rifts and ridges. However, magma supply varies along the axis of extension and the interactions between the tectonics and magmatism are inevitably three-dimensional. We investigate the consequences of this along-axis variation in diking in terms of faulting patterns and the associated structures using a 3D parallel geodynamic modeling code, SNAC. Many observed 3D structural features are reproduced: e.g., abyssal hill, oceanic core complex (OCC), inward fault jump, mass wasting, hourglass-shaped median valley, corrugation and mullion structure. An estimated average value of M = 0.65 is suggested as a boundary value for separating abyssal hills and OCCs formation. Previous inconsistency in the M range for OCC formation between 2D model results (M = 0.3˜0.5) and field observations (M < 0.3 or M > 0.5) is reconciled by the along-ridge coupling between different faulting regimes. We also propose asynchronous faulting-induced tensile failure as a new possibility for explaining corrugations seen on the surface of core complexes. For continental rifts, we will describe a suite of 2D and 3D model calculations with a range of initial lithospheric structures and values of M. In one set of the 2D models we limit the extensional tectonic force and show how this affects the maximum topographic relief produced across the rift. We are also interested in comparing models in which the value of M varies as the rift evolves with observations from real rifts and continental margins. Finally, we plan to show how the faulting pattern in 3D can depend on the distribution of dike opening rate along segments for incipient continental rifts.

Simulation of Co-Seismic Off-Fault Stress Effects: Influence of Fault Roughness and Pore Pressure Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fälth, B.; Lund, B.; Hökmark, H.

2017-12-01

Aiming at improved safety assessment of geological nuclear waste repositories, we use dynamic 3D earthquake simulations to estimate the potential for co-seismic off-fault distributed fracture slip. Our model comprises a 12.5 x 8.5 km strike-slip fault embedded in a full space continuum where we apply a homogeneous initial stress field. In the reference case (Case 1) the fault is planar and oriented optimally for slip, given the assumed stress field. To examine the potential impact of fault roughness, we also study cases where the fault surface has undulations with self-similar fractal properties. In both the planar and the undulated cases the fault has homogeneous frictional properties. In a set of ten rough fault models (Case 2), the fault friction is equal to that of Case 1, meaning that these models generate lower seismic moments than Case 1. In another set of ten rough fault models (Case 3), the fault dynamic friction is adjusted such that seismic moments on par with that of Case 1 are generated. For the propagation of the earthquake rupture we adopt the linear slip-weakening law and obtain Mw 6.4 in Case 1 and Case 3, and Mw 6.3 in Case 2 (35 % lower moment than Case 1). During rupture we monitor the off-fault stress evolution along the fault plane at 250 m distance and calculate the corresponding evolution of the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) on optimally oriented hypothetical fracture planes. For the stress-pore pressure coupling, we assume Skempton's coefficient B = 0.5 as a base case value, but also examine the sensitivity to variations of B. We observe the following: (I) The CFS values, and thus the potential for fracture slip, tend to increase with the distance from the hypocenter. This is in accordance with results by other authors. (II) The highest CFS values are generated by quasi-static stress concentrations around fault edges and around large scale fault bends, where we obtain values of the order of 10 MPa. (III) Locally, fault roughness may have a significant impact. The ratios (max CFS in Case 2) / (max CFS in Case 1) = 1.1 and (max CFS in Case 3) / (max CFS in Case 1) = 1.2 indicate a minor impact. However, at specific locations, CFS in Case 2 and Case 3 may be more than 5 times higher than in Case 1. (IV) The sensitivity to variations of B is modest; (max CFS in Case 1 with B = 0) / (max CFS in Case 1 with B = 1) = 1.15.

Modeling right-lateral offset of a Late Pleistocene terrace riser along the Polaris fault using ground based LiDAR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howle, J. F.; Bawden, G. W.; Hunter, L. E.; Rose, R. S.

2009-12-01

High resolution (centimeter level) three-dimensional point-cloud imagery of offset glacial outwash deposits were collected by using ground based tripod LiDAR (T-LiDAR) to characterize the cumulative fault slip across the recently identified Polaris fault (Hunter et al., 2009) near Truckee, California. The type-section site for the Polaris fault is located 6.5 km east of Truckee where progressive right-lateral displacement of middle to late Pleistocene deposits is evident. Glacial outwash deposits, aggraded during the Tioga glaciation, form a flat lying ‘fill’ terrace on both the north and south sides of the modern Truckee River. During the Tioga deglaciation melt water incised into the terrace producing fluvial scarps or terrace risers (Birkeland, 1964). Subsequently, the terrace risers on both banks have been right-laterally offset by the Polaris fault. By using T-LiDAR on an elevated tripod (4.25 m high), we collected 3D high-resolution (thousands of points per square meter; ± 4 mm) point-cloud imagery of the offset terrace risers. Vegetation was removed from the data using commercial software, and large protruding boulders were manually deleted to generate a bare-earth point-cloud dataset with an average data density of over 240 points per square meter. From the bare-earth point cloud we mathematically reconstructed a pristine terrace/scarp morphology on both sides of the fault, defined coupled sets of piercing points, and extracted a corresponding displacement vector. First, the Polaris fault was approximated as a vertical plane that bisects the offset terrace risers, as well as bisecting linear swales and tectonic depressions in the outwash terrace. Then, piercing points to the vertical fault plane were constructed from the geometry of the geomorphic elements on either side of the fault. On each side of the fault, the best-fit modeled outwash plane is projected laterally and the best-fit modeled terrace riser projected upward to a virtual intersection in space, creating a vector. These constructed vectors were projected to intersection with the fault plane, defining statistically significant piercing points. The distance between the coupled set of piercing points, within the plane of the fault, is the cumulative displacement vector. To assess the variability of the modeled geomorphic surfaces, including surface roughness and nonlinearity, we generated a suite of displacement models by systematically incorporating larger areas of the model domain symmetrically about the fault. Preliminary results of 10 models yield an average cumulative displacement of 5.6 m (1 Std Dev = 0.31 m). As previously described, Tioga deglaciation melt water incised into the outwash terrace leaving terrace risers that were subsequently offset by the Polaris fault. Therefore, the age of the Tioga outwash terrace represents a maximum limiting age of the tectonic displacement. Using regional age constraints of 15 to 13 kya for the Tioga outwash terrace (Benson et al., 1990; Clark and Gillespie, 1997; James et al., 2002) and the above model results, we estimate a preliminary minimum fault slip rate of 0.40 ± 0.05 mm/yr for the Polaris type-section site.

Fault zone reverberations from cross-correlations of earthquake waveforms and seismic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillers, Gregor; Campillo, Michel

2016-03-01

Seismic wavefields interact with low-velocity fault damage zones. Waveforms of ballistic fault zone head waves, trapped waves, reflected waves and signatures of trapped noise can provide important information on structural and mechanical fault zone properties. Here we extend the class of observable fault zone waves and reconstruct in-fault reverberations or multiples in a strike-slip faulting environment. Manifestations of the reverberations are significant, consistent wave fronts in the coda of cross-correlation functions that are obtained from scattered earthquake waveforms and seismic noise recorded by a linear fault zone array. The physical reconstruction of Green's functions is evident from the high similarity between the signals obtained from the two different scattered wavefields. Modal partitioning of the reverberation wavefield can be tuned using different data normalization techniques. The results imply that fault zones create their own ambiance, and that the here reconstructed reverberations are a key seismic signature of wear zones. Using synthetic waveform modelling we show that reverberations can be used for the imaging of structural units by estimating the location, extend and magnitude of lateral velocity contrasts. The robust reconstruction of the reverberations from noise records suggests the possibility to resolve the response of the damage zone material to various external and internal loading mechanisms.

A Viscoelastic earthquake simulator with application to the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred F.

2009-01-01

Earthquake simulation on synthetic fault networks carries great potential for characterizing the statistical patterns of earthquake occurrence. I present an earthquake simulator based on elastic dislocation theory. It accounts for the effects of interseismic tectonic loading, static stress steps at the time of earthquakes, and postearthquake stress readjustment through viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle. Earthquake rupture initiation and termination are determined with a Coulomb failure stress criterion and the static cascade model. The simulator is applied to interacting multifault systems: one, a synthetic two-fault network, and the other, a fault network representative of the San Francisco Bay region. The faults are discretized both along strike and along dip and can accommodate both strike slip and dip slip. Stress and seismicity functions are evaluated over 30,000 yr trial time periods, resulting in a detailed statistical characterization of the fault systems. Seismicity functions such as the coefficient of variation and a- and b-values exhibit systematic patterns with respect to simple model parameters. This suggests that reliable estimation of the controlling parameters of an earthquake simulator is a prerequisite to the interpretation of its output in terms of seismic hazard.

Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny

2016-05-01

Induced seismicity is of increasing concern for oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon sequestration operations, with several M > 5 events triggered in recent years. Modeling plays an important role in understanding the causes of this seismicity and in constraining seismic hazard. Here we study the collective properties of induced earthquake sequences and the physics underpinning them. In this first paper of a two-part series, we focus on the directivity ratio, which quantifies whether fault rupture is dominated by one (unilateral) or two (bilateral) propagating fronts. In a second paper, we focus on the spatiotemporal and magnitude-frequency distributions of induced seismicity. We develop a model that couples a fracture mechanics description of 1-D fault rupture with fractal stress heterogeneity and the evolving pore pressure distribution around an injection well that triggers earthquakes. The extent of fault rupture is calculated from the equations of motion for two tips of an expanding crack centered at the earthquake hypocenter. Under tectonic loading conditions, our model exhibits a preference for unilateral rupture and a normal distribution of hypocenter locations, two features that are consistent with seismological observations. On the other hand, catalogs of induced events when injection occurs directly onto a fault exhibit a bias toward ruptures that propagate toward the injection well. This bias is due to relatively favorable conditions for rupture that exist within the high-pressure plume. The strength of the directivity bias depends on a number of factors including the style of pressure buildup, the proximity of the fault to failure and event magnitude. For injection off a fault that triggers earthquakes, the modeled directivity bias is small and may be too weak for practical detection. For two hypothetical injection scenarios, we estimate the number of earthquake observations required to detect directivity bias.

Real-time antenna fault diagnosis experiments at DSS 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellstrom, J.; Pierson, C.; Smyth, P.

1992-01-01

Experimental results obtained when a previously described fault diagnosis system was run online in real time at the 34-m beam waveguide antenna at Deep Space Station (DSS) 13 are described. Experimental conditions and the quality of results are described. A neural network model and a maximum-likelihood Gaussian classifier are compared with and without a Markov component to model temporal context. At the rate of a state update every 6.4 seconds, over a period of roughly 1 hour, the neural-Markov system had zero errors (incorrect state estimates) while monitoring both faulty and normal operations. The overall results indicate that the neural-Markov combination is the most accurate model and has significant practical potential.

On the use of faults and background seismicity in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Tonini, Roberto; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Romano, Fabrizio; Perfetti, Paolo; Volpe, Manuela

2017-04-01

Most of the SPTHA studies and applications rely on several working assumptions: i) the - mostly offshore - tsunamigenic faults are sufficiently well known; ii) the subduction zone earthquakes dominate the hazard; iii) and their location and geometry is sufficiently well constrained. Hence, a probabilistic model is constructed as regards the magnitude-frequency distribution and sometimes the slip distribution of earthquakes occurring on assumed known faults. Then, tsunami scenarios are usually constructed for all earthquakes location, sizes, and slip distributions included in the probabilistic model, through deterministic numerical modelling of tsunami generation, propagation and impact on realistic bathymetries. Here, we adopt a different approach (Selva et al., GJI, 2016) that releases some of the above assumptions, considering that i) also non-subduction earthquakes may contribute significantly to SPTHA, depending on the local tectonic context; ii) that not all the offshore faults are known or sufficiently well constrained; iii) and that the faulting mechanism of future earthquakes cannot be considered strictly predictable. This approach uses as much as possible information from known faults which, depending on the amount of available information and on the local tectonic complexity, among other things, are either modelled as Predominant Seismicity (PS) or as Background Seismicity (BS). PS is used when it is possible to assume sufficiently known geometry and mechanism (e.g. for the main subduction zones). Conversely, within the BS approach information on faults is merged with that on past seismicity, dominant stress regime, and tectonic characterisation, to determine a probability density function for the faulting mechanism. To illustrate the methodology and its impact on the hazard estimates, we present an application in the NEAM region (Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas), initially designed during the ASTARTE project and now applied for the regional-scale SPTHA in the TSUMAPS-NEAM project funded by DG-ECHO.

Mechanical Effects of Normal Faulting Along the Eastern Escarpment of the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, S. J.; Logan, J. M.; Stock, G. M.

2013-12-01

Here we test whether the regional near-surface stress field in the Sierra Nevada, California, and the near-surface fracturing that heavily influences the Sierran landscape are a mechanical response to normal faulting along its eastern escarpment. A compilation of existing near-surface stress measurements for the central Sierra Nevada, together with three new measurements, shows the most compressive horizontal stresses are 3-21 MPa, consistent with the widespread distribution of sheeting joints (near-surface fractures subparallel to the ground surface). In contrast, a new stress measurement at Aeolian Buttes in the Mono Basin, east of the range front fault system, reveals a horizontal principal tension of 0.014 MPa, consistent with the abundant vertical joints there. To evaluate mechanical effects of normal faulting, we modeled both normal faults and grabens in three ways: (1) dislocations of specified slip in an elastic half-space, (2) frictionless sliding surfaces in an elastic half-space; and (3) faults in thin elastic beams resting on an inviscid fluid. The different mechanical models predict concave upward flexure and widespread near-surface compressive stresses in the Sierra Nevada that surpass the measurements even for as little as 1 km of normal slip along the eastern escarpment, which exhibits 1-3 km of structural and topographic relief. The models also predict concave downward flexure of the bedrock floors and horizontal near-surface tensile stresses east of the escarpment. The thin-beam models account best for the topographic relief of the eastern escarpment and the measured stresses given current best estimates for the rheology of the Sierran lithosphere. Our findings collectively indicate that the regional near-surface stress field and the widespread near-surface fracturing directly reflect the mechanical response to normal faulting along the eastern escarpment. These results have broad scientific and engineering implications for slope stability, hydrology, and geomorphology in and near fault-bounded mountain ranges in general.

Seismic environment of the Burro Flats site, Ventura County, California: a brief, limited literature review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wentworth, Carl M.; Bonilla, Manuel G.; Buchanan, Jane M.

1969-01-01

A limited review of available literature suggests that the maximum horizontal ground acceleration at the Burro Flats site from earthquakes in the region could range from less than 0.1 to 0.49 g. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the nearby San Andreas fault could produce ground acceleration in the range 0.18 to 0.31 g, and an expectable larger earthquake on that fault could produce larger accelerations. Ground motion from possible smaller but closer earthquakes ranges up to 0.49 g for an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 on the adjacent "Burro Flats fault". Estimation of these accelerations is dependent on determining the geologic environment of the site, the appropriate earthquake magnitudes to be assigned significant faults in that environment, and the attenuation of shaking between the earthquake epicenters and the site. The site lies within a tectonically active region--the historically active San Andreas fault is only 34 miles to the northeast, and lesser faults showing evidence of late Quaternary displacement are located closer to the site. Evidence for youthfulness of these lesser faults varies, and except for the active Newport-Inglewood zone and the Santa Ynez fault, they qualify as possible but as yet-unproven active faults. All known faults with appropriate length to site-distance ratios that are reasonably classed as late Quaternary faults are discussed, and are included as potential earthquake generators. Earthquakes of appropriate magnitude to be assigned to each fault are determined by assuming rupture in one event of half the map length of the fault, and applying relations (determined by several authors) between earthquake magnitude and rupture length in historic events to determine magnitudes. These magnitudes are, for the purposes of this brief review, probably reasonable estimates of the capabilities of each fault, although earthquakes of larger magnitude are possible. Accelerations are then determined by assuming earthquakes of the above determined magnitude placed at the closest point to the site on the fault trace, and applying attenuation curves of three different authors. Considerable uncertainty is inherent in the rough estimates of seismic accelerations made herein, for they are dependent on a chain of judgments, each of which, in itself, is uncertain. Present knowledge of the geology of the region is incomplete, so that geometry and structural relations of the faults are in part uncertain, and much evidence bearing on the youth of the faults has yet to be gathered and evaluated. Estimation of earthquake magnitude is also uncertain, and even assuming that approximate magnitude is known rather than estimated from fault length, estimates of maximum ground acceleration may differ greatly depending on the authority used. Further consideration of ground acceleration at the site might refine the estimates made herein and resolve the apparent contradictions between the authorities cited. Attention to frequency and duration of strong shaking would also be appropriate. This study was undertaken at the request of A. J. Pressesky, Assistant Director for Nuclear Safety, Division of Reactor-Development and Technology, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, in March, 1969. It is based on a brief review of pertinent literature to which the authors had immediate access during the few weeks (April-May, 1969) available for report preparation. Because the report is limited both in scope and thoroughness, it must be considered no more than a first estimate of the tectonic and seismic environment of the Burro Flats site, and should not be considered sufficient, in itself, as a basis for design. The report is intended, however, to indicate the breadth of inquiry that is necessary in the consideration of ground acceleration at sites in California, and to indicate the incomplete status of geologic mapping and other geologic studies in the region. The report describes the tectonic environment of the Burro Flats site, discusses 10 pertinent faults individually, and presents possible earthquake magnitudes for those faults and resultant potential ground accelerations at the site.

An Integrated Framework for Model-Based Distributed Diagnosis and Prognosis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

0 : t) denotes all measurements observed up to time t. The goal of prognosis is to determine the end of (use- ful) life ( EOL ) of a system, and/or its...remaining useful life (RUL). For a given fault, f , using the fault estimate, p(xf (t),θf (t)|y(0 : t)), a probability distribution of EOL , p(EOLf (tP...is stochas- tic, EOL /RUL are random variables and we represent them by probability distributions. The acceptable behavior of the system is expressed

Fault slip rates in the modern new madrid seismic zone

PubMed

Mueller; Champion; Guccione; Kelson

1999-11-05

Structural and geomorphic analysis of late Holocene sediments in the Lake County region of the New Madrid seismic zone indicates that they are deformed by fault-related folding above the blind Reelfoot thrust fault. The widths of narrow kink bands exposed in trenches were used to model the Reelfoot scarp as a forelimb on a fault-bend fold; this, coupled with the age of folded sediment, yields a slip rate on the blind thrust of 6.1 +/- 0.7 mm/year for the past 2300 +/- 100 years. An alternative method used structural relief across the scarp and the estimated dip of the underlying blind thrust to calculate a slip rate of 4.8 +/- 0.2 mm/year. Geometric relations suggest that the right lateral slip rate on the New Madrid seismic zone is 1.8 to 2.0 mm/year.

Earthquake rupture properties of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake foreshocks ( M j 6.5 and M j 6.4) revealed by conventional and multiple-aperture InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Tomokazu

2017-01-01

By applying conventional cross-track InSAR and multiple-aperture InSAR (MAI) techniques with ALOS-2 SAR data to foreshocks of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, ground displacement fields in range (line-of-sight) and azimuth components have been successfully mapped. The most concentrated crustal deformation with ground displacement exceeding 15 cm is located on the western side of the Hinagu fault zone. A locally distributed displacement which appears along the strike of the Futagawa fault can be identified in and around Mashiki town, suggesting that a different local fault slip also contributed toward foreshocks. Inverting InSAR, MAI, and GNSS data, distributed slip models are obtained that show almost pure right-lateral fault motion on a plane dipping west by 80° for the Hinagu fault and almost pure normal fault motion on a plane dipping south by 70° for the local fault beneath Mashiki town. The slip on the Hinagu fault reaches around the junction of the Hinagu and Futagawa faults. The slip in the north significantly extends down to around 10 km depth, while in the south the slip is concentrated near the ground surface, perhaps corresponding to the M j 6.5 and the M j 6.4 events, respectively. The focal mechanism of the distributed slip model for the Hinagu fault alone shows pure right-lateral motion, which is inconsistent with the seismically estimated mechanism that includes a significant non-double couple component. On the other hand, when taking the contribution of normal fault motion into account, the focal mechanism appears similar to that of the seismic analysis. This result may suggest that local fault motion occurred just beneath Mashiki town, simultaneously with the M j 6.5 event, thereby increasing the degree of damage to the town.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Source depth dependence of micro-tsunamis recorded with ocean-bottom pressure gauges: The January 28, 2000 Mw 6.8 earthquake off Nemuro Peninsula, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirata, K.; Takahashi, H.; Geist, E.; Satake, K.; Tanioka, Y.; Sugioka, H.; Mikada, H.

2003-01-01

Micro-tsunami waves with a maximum amplitude of 4-6 mm were detected with the ocean-bottom pressure gauges on a cabled deep seafloor observatory south of Hokkaido, Japan, following the January 28, 2000 earthquake (Mw 6.8) in the southern Kuril subduction zone. We model the observed micro-tsunami and estimate the focal depth and other source parameters such as fault length and amount of slip using grid searching with the least-squares method. The source depth and stress drop for the January 2000 earthquake are estimated to be 50 km and 7 MPa, respectively, with possible ranges of 45-55 km and 4-13 MPa. Focal depth of typical inter-plate earthquakes in this region ranges from 10 to 20 km and stress drop of inter-plate earthquakes generally is around 3 MPa. The source depth and stress drop estimates suggest that the earthquake was an intra-slab event in the subducting Pacific plate, rather than an inter-plate event. In addition, for a prescribed fault width of 30 km, the fault length is estimated to be 15 km, with possible ranges of 10-20 km, which is the same as the previously determined aftershock distribution. The corresponding estimate for seismic moment is 2.7x1019 Nm with possible ranges of 2.3x1019-3.2x1019Nm. Standard tide gauges along the nearby coast did not record any tsunami signal. High-precision ocean-bottom pressure measurements offshore thus make it possible to determine fault parameters of moderate-sized earthquakes in subduction zones using open-ocean tsunami waveforms. Published by Elsevier Science B. V.

The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey

2015-01-01

The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

Technical know-how relevant to planning of borehole investigation for fault characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, T.; Takeuchi, R.; Tsuruta, T.; Matsuoka, T.; Kunimaru, T.; Saegusa, H.

2011-12-01

As part of the national R&D program for geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW), the broad scientific study of the deep geological environment, JAEA has established the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) in Central Japan as a generic underground research laboratory (URL) facility. The MIU Project focuses on the crystalline rocks. In the case of fractured rock, a fault is one of the major discontinuity structures which control the groundwater flow conditions. It is important to estimate geological, hydrogeological, hydrochemical and rock mechanical characteristics of faults, and then to evaluate its role in the engineering design of repository and the assessment of long-term safety of HLW disposal. Therefore, investigations for fault characterization have been performed to estimate its characteristics and to evaluate existing conceptual and/or numerical models of the geological environment in the MIU project. Investigations related to faults have been conducted based on the conventional concept that a fault consists of a "fault core (FC)" characterized by distribution of the faulted rocks and a "fractured zone (FZ)" along FC. With the progress of investigations, furthermore, it is clear that there is also a case in which an "altered zone (AZ)" characterized by alteration of host rocks to clay minerals can be developed around the FC. Intensity of alteration in AZ generally decreases with distance from the FC, and AZ transits to FZ. Therefore, the investigation program focusing on properties of AZ is required for revising the existing conceptual and/or numerical models of geological environment. In this study, procedures for planning of fault characterizations have been summarized based on the technical know-how learnt through the MIU Project for the development of Knowledge Management System performed by JAEA under a contract with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as part of its R&D supporting program for developing geological disposal technology in 2010. Taking into account the experience from the fault characterization in the MIU Project, an optimization procedure for investigation program is summarized as follows; 1) Definition of investigation aim, 2) Confirmation of current understanding of the geological environment, 3) Specification and prioritization of the data to be obtained 4) Selection of the methodology for obtaining the data, 5) Specification of sequence of the investigations, and 6) Establishment of drilling and casing program including optional cases and taking into account potential problems. Several geological conceptual models with uncertainty of geological structures were illustrated to define the investigation aim and to confirm the current uncertainties. These models were also available to establish optional cases by predicting the type and location of potential problems. The procedures and case study related to establishment of the investigation program are summarized in this study and can be available for site characterization works conducted by the implementing body (NUMO) in future candidate areas.

The Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault System: Learning from the Past to Forecast the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, D. P.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Hecker, S.

2007-12-01

The San Francisco Bay area is located within the Pacific-North American plate boundary. As a result, the region has the highest density of active faults per square kilometer of any urban center in the US. Between the Farallon Islands and Livermore, the faults of the San Andreas fault system are slipping at a rate of about 40 mm/yr. Approximately 25 percent of this rate is accommodated by the Hayward fault and its continuation to the north, the Rodgers Creek fault. The Hayward fault extends 88 km from Warm Springs on the south into San Pablo Bay on the north, traversing the most heavily urbanized part of the Bay Area. The Rodgers Creek fault extends another 63 km, passing through Santa Rosa and ending south of Healdsburg. Geologic, seismologic, and geodetic studies during the past ten years have significantly increased our knowledge of this system. In particular, paleoseismic studies of the timing of past earthquakes have provided critical new information for improving our understanding of how these faults may work in time and space, and for estimating the probability of future earthquakes. The most spectacular result is an 11-earthquake record on the southern Hayward fault that extends back to A.D. 170. It suggests an average time interval between large earthquakes of 170 years for this period, with a shorter interval of 140 years for the five most recent earthquakes. Paleoseismic investigations have also shown that prior to the most recent large earthquake on the southern Hayward fault in 1868, large earthquakes occurred on the southern Hayward fault between 1658 and1786, on the northern Hayward fault between 1640 and 1776, and on the Rodgers Creek fault between 1690 and 1776. These could have been three separate earthquakes. However, the overlapping radiocarbon dates for these paleoearthquakes allow the possibility that these faults may have ruptured together in several different combinations: a combined southern and northern Hayward fault earthquake, a Rodgers Creek-northern Hayward fault earthquake, or a rupture of all three fault sections. Each of these rupture combinations would produce a magnitude larger than 1868 (M~6.9). In 2003, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities released a new earthquake forecast for the Bay Area. Using the earthquake timing data and alternative fault rupture models, the Working Group estimated a 27 percent likelihood of a M?6.7 earthquake along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault zone by the year 2031. This is this highest probability of any individual fault system in the Bay Area. New paleoseismic data will allow updating of this forecast.

Consequences of the presence of a weak fault on the stress and strain within an active margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conin, M.; Henry, P.; Godard, V.; Bourlange, S.

2009-12-01

Accreting margins often display an outer thrust and fold belt and an inner forearc domain overlying the subduction plate. Assuming that this overlying material behaves as Coulomb material, the outer wedge and the inner wedge are classically approximated as a critical state and a stable state Coulomb wedge, respectively. Critical Coulomb wedge theory can account for the transition from wedge to forearc. However, it cannot be used to determine the state of stress in the transition zone, nor the consequences of a discontinuity within the margin. The presence of a discontinuity such as a splay fault having a low effective friction coefficient should affect the stress state within the wedge, at least locally around the splay fault. Moreover, the effective friction coefficient of the seismogenic zone is expected to vary during the seismic cycle, and this may influence the stability of the Coulomb wedges. We use the ADELI finite element code (Chery and Hassani, 2000) to model the quasi-static stress and strain of a decollement and splay fault system, within a two dimensional elasto-plastic wedge with Drucker-Prager rheology. The subduction plane, the basal decollement of the accretionary wedge and the splay fault are modeled with contact elements. The modeled margin comprises an inner and an outer domain with distinct tapers and basal friction coefficients. For a given splay fault geometry, we evaluate the friction coefficient threshold for splay fault activation as a function of the basal friction coefficients, and examine the consequences of motion along the splay fault on stress and strain within the wedge and on the surface slope at equilibrium. Friction coefficients are varied in time to mimic the consequence of the seismic cycle on the static stress state and strain distribution. Results show the possibility of coexistence of localized extensional regime above the splay fault within a regional compressional regime. Such coexistence is consistent with stress orientation estimation made from breakouts in the Nankai accretionary prim (Kinoshita et al, 2009).

A province-scale block model of Walker Lane and western Basin and Range crustal deformation constrained by GPS observations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, W. C.; Bormann, J.; Blewitt, G.; Kreemer, C.

2013-12-01

The Walker Lane in the western Great Basin of the western United States is an 800 km long and 100 km wide zone of active intracontinental transtension that absorbs ~10 mm/yr, about 20% of the Pacific/North America plate boundary relative motion. Lying west of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate (SNGV) and adjoining the Basin and Range Province to the east, deformation is predominantly shear strain overprinted with a minor component of extension. The Walker Lane responds with faulting, block rotations, structural step-overs, and has distinct and varying partitioned domains of shear and extension. Resolving these complex deformation patterns requires a long term observation strategy with a dense network of GPS stations (spacing ~20 km). The University of Nevada, Reno operates the 373 station Mobile Array of GPS for Nevada transtension (MAGNET) semi-continuous network that supplements coverage by other networks such as EarthScope's Plate Boundary Observatory, which alone has insufficient density to resolve the deformation patterns. Uniform processing of data from these GPS mega-networks provides a synoptic view and new insights into the kinematics and mechanics of Walker Lane tectonics. We present velocities for thousands of stations with time series between 3 to 17 years in duration aligned to our new GPS-based North America fixed reference frame NA12. The velocity field shows a rate budget across the southern Walker Lane of ~10 mm/yr, decreasing northward to ~7 mm/yr at the latitude of the Mohawk Valley and Pyramid Lake. We model the data with a new block model that estimates rotations and slip rates of known active faults between the Mojave Desert and northern Nevada and northeast California. The density of active faults in the region requires including a relatively large number of blocks in the model to accurately estimate deformation patterns. With 49 blocks, our the model captures structural detail not represented in previous province-scale models, and improves our ability to compare results to geologic fault slip rates. Modeling the kinematics on this scale has the advantages of 1) reducing the impact of poorly constrained boundaries on small geographically limited models, 2) consistent modeling of rotations across major structural step-overs near the Mina deflection and Carson domain, 3) tracking the kinematics of the south-to-north varying budget of Walker Lane deformation by solving for extension in the Basin and Range to the east, and 4) using a contiguous SNGV as a uniform western kinematic boundary condition. We compare contemporary deformation to geologic slip rates and longer term rotation rates estimated from rock paleomagnetism. GPS-derived block rotation rates are somewhat dependent on model regularization, but are generally within 1° per million years, and tend to be slower than published paleomagnetic rotations rates. GPS data, together with neotectonic and rock paleomagnetism studies provide evidence that the relative importance of Walker Lane block rotations and fault slip continues to evolve, giving way to a more through-going system with slower rotation rates and higher slip rates on individual faults.

A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Dahllöf, I

2014-11-15

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bearing Fault Diagnosis by a Robust Higher-Order Super-Twisting Sliding Mode Observer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jong-Myon

2018-01-01

An effective bearing fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) model is important for ensuring the normal and safe operation of machines. This paper presents a reliable model-reference observer technique for FDD based on modeling of a bearing’s vibration data by analyzing the dynamic properties of the bearing and a higher-order super-twisting sliding mode observation (HOSTSMO) technique for making diagnostic decisions using these data models. The HOSTSMO technique can adaptively improve the performance of estimating nonlinear failures in rolling element bearings (REBs) over a linear approach by modeling 5 degrees of freedom under normal and faulty conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is evaluated using a vibration dataset provided by Case Western Reserve University, which consists of vibration acceleration signals recorded for REBs with inner, outer, ball, and no faults, i.e., normal. Experimental results indicate that the proposed technique outperforms the ARX-Laguerre proportional integral observation (ALPIO) technique, yielding 18.82%, 16.825%, and 17.44% performance improvements for three levels of crack severity of 0.007, 0.014, and 0.021 inches, respectively. PMID:29642459

Bearing Fault Diagnosis by a Robust Higher-Order Super-Twisting Sliding Mode Observer.

PubMed

Piltan, Farzin; Kim, Jong-Myon

2018-04-07

An effective bearing fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) model is important for ensuring the normal and safe operation of machines. This paper presents a reliable model-reference observer technique for FDD based on modeling of a bearing's vibration data by analyzing the dynamic properties of the bearing and a higher-order super-twisting sliding mode observation (HOSTSMO) technique for making diagnostic decisions using these data models. The HOSTSMO technique can adaptively improve the performance of estimating nonlinear failures in rolling element bearings (REBs) over a linear approach by modeling 5 degrees of freedom under normal and faulty conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is evaluated using a vibration dataset provided by Case Western Reserve University, which consists of vibration acceleration signals recorded for REBs with inner, outer, ball, and no faults, i.e., normal. Experimental results indicate that the proposed technique outperforms the ARX-Laguerre proportional integral observation (ALPIO) technique, yielding 18.82%, 16.825%, and 17.44% performance improvements for three levels of crack severity of 0.007, 0.014, and 0.021 inches, respectively.

Semi-automated fault system extraction and displacement analysis of an excavated oyster reef using high-resolution laser scanned data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnár, Gábor; Székely, Balázs; Harzhauser, Mathias; Djuricic, Ana; Mandic, Oleg; Dorninger, Peter; Nothegger, Clemens; Exner, Ulrike; Pfeifer, Norbert

2015-04-01

In this contribution we present a semi-automated method for reconstructing the brittle deformation field of an excavated Miocene oyster reef, in Stetten, Korneuburg Basin, Lower Austria. Oyster shells up to 80 cm in size were scattered in a shallow estuarine bay forming a continuous and almost isochronous layer as a consequence of a catastrophic event in the Miocene. This shell bed was preserved by burial of several hundred meters of sandy to silty sediments. Later the layers were tilted westward, uplifted and erosion almost exhumed them. An excavation revealed a 27 by 17 meters area of the oyster covered layer. During the tectonic processes the sediment volume suffered brittle deformation. Faults mostly with some centimeter normal component and NW-SE striking affected the oyster covered volume, dissecting many shells and the surrounding matrix as well. Faults and displacements due to them can be traced along the site typically at several meters long, and as fossil oysters are broken and parts are displaced due to the faulting, along some faults it is possible to follow these displacements in 3D. In order to quantify these varying displacements and to map the undulating fault traces high-resolution scanning of the excavated and cleaned surface of the oyster bed has been carried out using a terrestrial laser scanner. The resulting point clouds have been co-georeferenced at mm accuracy and a 1mm resolution 3D point cloud of the surface has been created. As the faults are well-represented in the point cloud, this enables us to measure the dislocations of the dissected shell parts along the fault lines. We used a semi-automatic method to quantify these dislocations. First we manually digitized the fault lines in 2D as an initial model. In the next step we estimated the vertical (i.e. perpendicular to the layer) component of the dislocation along these fault lines comparing the elevations on two sides of the faults with moving averaging windows. To estimate the strike-slip dislocation component, the surface points of the dissected shells on both sides of the fault planes were compared and displacement vectors were derived. The exact orientation of the fault planes cannot be accurately extracted automatically, so the distinction between normal and reverse fault is difficult. This makes the third component of the dislocation to be estimated inaccurately. These derived dislocation values are regarded as components of the dislocation vectors and were transformed back to the real world spatial coordinate system. Interpolating these dislocation vectors along fault lines we calculated and visualized the deformation field along the whole surface of the oyster reef. Although this deformation field is only a 2D section of the real 3D deformation field, its elaboration reveals the spatial variability of the deformation according to sediment inhomogeneity. The project is supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF P 25883-N29).

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Bakun, W.H.; Perkins, D.M.

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency-magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

Seismic reflection study of the East Potrillo Fault, southwestern Dona Ana County, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carley, Shane Alan

The East Potrillo Mountains are located just north of the U.S.-Mexico border in southwestern Dona Ana County, New Mexico. Laramide and Rio Grande rift deformation has formed low-angle and high-angle Tertiary normal faults that are exposed in the area. Along the east flank of the range is the East Potrillo Fault identified on the surface as a north-striking scarp. Fault scarps associated with the East Potrillo Fault have been dated using slope degradation models and they range between 56 ka and 377 ka in age. Offset of geomorphic surfaces interpreted to be tectonic terraces records at least four earthquakes over that period of time, leading to an estimated recurrence interval of 33.5 kyr. Because of this paleoseismic history, the East Potrillo Fault potentially poses a significant seismic hazard to the over 2 million residents living in the border region. Our study presents two 2D seismic reflection profiles to give the first subsurface image of the East Potrillo Fault and potentially other subsidiary faults that have not broken the surface. Three faults are identified in the subsurface, two of which were previously unknown. The range bounding fault is identified 300 m west of observed fault scarps. The fault scarp is found to be formed from one of two secondary faults. It dips 75°s east and has a fault offset of 150 m. The other secondary fault is an antithetic fault dipping 75°s west and forms a graben within the EPF system. The vibroseis source data acquisition is found to be beneficial for characterizing unknown subsurface features.

Coseismic and initial postseismic deformation from the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake, observed by global positioning system, electronic distance meter, creepmeters, and borehole strainmeters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, J.; Murray, J.R.; Snyder, H.A.

2006-01-01

Global Positioning System (GPS), electronic distance meter, creepmeter, and strainmeter measurements spanning the M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake are examined. Using these data from 100 sec through 9 months following the main-shock, the Omori's law, with rate inversely related to time, l/t p and p ranging between 0.7 and 1.3, characterizes the time-dependent deformation during the post-seismic period; these results are consistent with creep models for elastic solids. With an accurate function of postseismic response, the coseismic displacements can be estimated from the high-rate, 1-min sampling GPS; and the coseismic displacements are approximately 75% of those estimated from the daily solutions. Consequently, fault-slip models using daily solutions overestimate coseismic slip. In addition, at 2 months and at 8 months following the mainshock, postseismic displacements are modeled as slip on the San Andreas fault with a lower bound on the moment exceeding that of the coseismic moment.

Postglacial seismic activity along the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu fault complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojala, Antti E. K.; Mattila, Jussi; Ruskeeniemi, Timo; Palmu, Jukka-Pekka; Lindberg, Antero; Hänninen, Pekka; Sutinen, Raimo

2017-10-01

Analysis of airborne LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEMs), trenching of Quaternary deposits, and diamond drilling through faulted bedrock was conducted to characterize the geological structure and full slip profiles of the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu postglacial fault (PGF) complex in northern Finland. The PGF systems are recognized from LiDAR DEMs as a complex of surface ruptures striking SW-NE, cutting through late-Weichselian till, and associated with several postglacial landslides within 10 km. Evidence from the terrain rupture characteristics, the deformed and folded structure of late-Weichselian till, and the 14C age of 11,300 cal BP from buried organic matter underneath the Sotka landslide indicates a postglacial origin of the Riikonkumpu fault (PGF). The fracture frequency and lithology of drill cores and fault geometry in the trench log indicate that the Riikonkumpu PGF dips to WNW with a dip angle of 40-45° at the Riikonkumpu site and close to 60° at the Riikonvaara site. A fault length of 19 km and the mean and maximum cumulative vertical displacement of 1.3 m and 4.1 m, respectively, of the Riikonkumpu PGF system indicate that the fault potentially hosted an earthquake with a moment magnitude MW ≈ 6.7-7.3 assuming that slip was accumulated in one seismic event. Our interpretation further suggests that the Riikonkumpu PGF system is linked to the Isovaara PGF system and that, together, they form a larger Isovaara-Riikonkumpu fault complex. Relationships between the 38-km-long rupture of the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu complex and the fault offset parameters, with cumulative displacement of 1.5 and 8.3 m, respectively, indicate that the earthquake(s) contributing to the PGF complex potentially had a moment magnitude of MW ≈ 6.9-7.5. In order to adequately sample the uncertainty space, the moment magnitude was also estimated for each major segment within the Isovaara-Riikonkumpu PGF complex. These estimates vary roughly between MW ≈ 5-8 for the individual segments.

Near-Fault Broadband Ground Motion Simulations Using Empirical Green's Functions: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben (France-Germany) Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gaudio, Sergio; Hok, Sebastien; Festa, Gaetano; Causse, Mathieu; Lancieri, Maria

2017-09-01

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on data-based ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a reliable ground motion prediction for such a class of events and distances where also the largest amount of damage is usually observed. A possible strategy to fill this lack of information is to generate synthetic accelerograms based on an accurate modeling of both extended fault rupture and wave propagation process. The development of such modeling strategies is essential for estimating seismic hazard close to faults in moderate seismic activity zones, where data are even scarcer. For that reason, we selected a target site in Upper Rhine Graben (URG), at the French-German border. URG is a region where faults producing micro-seismic activity are very close to the sites of interest (e.g., critical infrastructures like supply lines, nuclear power plants, etc.) needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing near-fault broadband ground motion numerical simulations in a moderate seismic activity region such as URG and discuss some of the challenges related to such an application. The modeling strategy is to couple the multi-empirical Green's function technique (multi-EGFt) with a k -2 kinematic source model. One of the advantages of the multi-EGFt is that it does not require a detailed knowledge of the propagation medium since the records of small events are used as the medium transfer function, if, at the target site, records of small earthquakes located on the target fault are available. The selection of suitable events to be used as multi-EGF is detailed and discussed in our specific situation where less number of events are available. We then showed the impact that each source parameter characterizing the k-2 model has on ground motion amplitude. Finally we performed ground motion simulations showing results for different probable earthquake scenarios in the URG. Dependency of ground motions and of their variability are analyzed at different frequencies in respect of rupture velocity, roughness degree of slip distribution (stress drop), and hypocenter location. In near-source conditions, ground motion variability is shown to be mostly governed by the uncertainty on source parameters. In our specific configuration (magnitude, distance), the directivity effect is only observed in a limited frequency range. Rather, broadband ground motions are shown to be sensitive to both average rupture velocity and its possible variability, and to slip roughness. Ending up with a comparison of simulation results and GMPEs, we conclude that source parameters and their variability should be set up carefully to obtain reliable broadband ground motion estimations. In particular, our study shows that slip roughness should be set up in respect of the target stress drop. This entails the need for a better understanding of the physics of earthquake source and its incorporation in the ground motion modeling.

Pattern classifier for health monitoring of helicopter gearboxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Hsinyung; Danai, Kourosh; Lewicki, David G.

1993-01-01

The application of a newly developed diagnostic method to a helicopter gearbox is demonstrated. This method is a pattern classifier which uses a multi-valued influence matrix (MVIM) as its diagnostic model. The method benefits from a fast learning algorithm, based on error feedback, that enables it to estimate gearbox health from a small set of measurement-fault data. The MVIM method can also assess the diagnosability of the system and variability of the fault signatures as the basis to improve fault signatures. This method was tested on vibration signals reflecting various faults in an OH-58A main rotor transmission gearbox. The vibration signals were then digitized and processed by a vibration signal analyzer to enhance and extract various features of the vibration data. The parameters obtained from this analyzer were utilized to train and test the performance of the MVIM method in both detection and diagnosis. The results indicate that the MVIM method provided excellent detection results when the full range of faults effects on the measurements were included in training, and it had a correct diagnostic rate of 95 percent when the faults were included in training.

Seismic response evaluation of base-isolated reinforced concrete buildings under bidirectional excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhagat, Satish; Wijeyewickrema, Anil C.

2017-04-01

This paper reports on an investigation of the seismic response of base-isolated reinforced concrete buildings, which considers various isolation system parameters under bidirectional near-fault and far-fault motions. Three-dimensional models of 4-, 8-, and 12-story base-isolated buildings with nonlinear effects in the isolation system and the superstructure are investigated, and nonlinear response history analysis is carried out. The bounding values of isolation system properties that incorporate the aging effect of isolators are also taken into account, as is the current state of practice in the design and analysis of base-isolated buildings. The response indicators of the buildings are studied for near-fault and far-fault motions weight-scaled to represent the design earthquake (DE) level and the risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCER) level. Results of the nonlinear response history analyses indicate no structural damage under DE-level motions for near-fault and far-fault motions and for MCER-level far-fault motions, whereas minor structural damage is observed under MCER-level near-fault motions. Results of the base-isolated buildings are compared with their fixed-base counterparts. Significant reduction of the superstructure response of the 12-story base-isolated building compared to the fixed-base condition indicates that base isolation can be effectively used in taller buildings to enhance performance. Additionally, the applicability of a rigid superstructure to predict the isolator displacement demand is also investigated. It is found that the isolator displacements can be estimated accurately using a rigid body model for the superstructure for the buildings considered.

Application of a Bank of Kalman Filters for Aircraft Engine Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L.

2003-01-01

In this paper, a bank of Kalman filters is applied to aircraft gas turbine engine sensor and actuator fault detection and isolation (FDI) in conjunction with the detection of component faults. This approach uses multiple Kalman filters, each of which is designed for detecting a specific sensor or actuator fault. In the event that a fault does occur, all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis will produce large estimation errors, thereby isolating the specific fault. In the meantime, a set of parameters that indicate engine component performance is estimated for the detection of abrupt degradation. The proposed FDI approach is applied to a nonlinear engine simulation at nominal and aged conditions, and the evaluation results for various engine faults at cruise operating conditions are given. The ability of the proposed approach to reliably detect and isolate sensor and actuator faults is demonstrated.

Data-based fault-tolerant control for affine nonlinear systems with actuator faults.

PubMed

Xie, Chun-Hua; Yang, Guang-Hong

2016-09-01

This paper investigates the fault-tolerant control (FTC) problem for unknown nonlinear systems with actuator faults including stuck, outage, bias and loss of effectiveness. The upper bounds of stuck faults, bias faults and loss of effectiveness faults are unknown. A new data-based FTC scheme is proposed. It consists of the online estimations of the bounds and a state-dependent function. The estimations are adjusted online to compensate automatically the actuator faults. The state-dependent function solved by using real system data helps to stabilize the system. Furthermore, all signals in the resulting closed-loop system are uniformly bounded and the states converge asymptotically to zero. Compared with the existing results, the proposed approach is data-based. Finally, two simulation examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Imaging the Alpine Fault: preliminary results from a detailed 3D-VSP experiment at the DFDP-2 drill site in Whataroa, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, Vera; Bodenburg, Sascha; Buske, Stefan; Townend, John; Kellett, Richard; Savage, Martha; Schmitt, Douglas; Constantinou, Alexis; Eccles, Jennifer; Lawton, Donald; Hall, Kevin; Bertram, Malcolm; Gorman, Andrew

2017-04-01

The plate-bounding Alpine Fault in New Zealand is an 850 km long transpressive continental fault zone that is late in its earthquake cycle. The Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) aims to deliver insight into the geological structure of this fault zone and its evolution by drilling and sampling the Alpine Fault at depth. Previously analysed 2D reflection seismic data image the main Alpine Fault reflector at a depth of 1.5-2.2 km with a dip of approximately 48° to the southeast below the DFDP-2 borehole. Additionally, there are indications of a more complex 3D fault structure with several fault branches which have not yet been clearly imaged in detail. For that reason we acquired a 3D-VSP seismic data set at the DFDP-2 drill site in January 2016. A zero-offset VSP and a walk-away VSP survey were conducted using a Vibroseis source. Within the borehole, a permanently installed "Distributed Acoustic Fibre Optic Cable" (down to 893 m) and a 3C Sercel slimwave tool (down to 400 m) were used to record the seismic wavefield. In addition, an array of 160 three-component receivers with a spacing of 10 m perpendicular and 20 m parallel to the main strike of the Alpine Fault was set up and moved successively along the valley to record reflections from the main Alpine Fault zone over a broad depth range and to derive a detailed 3D tomographic velocity model in the hanging wall. We will show a detailed 3D velocity model derived from first-arrival traveltime tomography. Subsets of the whole data set were analysed separately to estimate the corresponding ray coverage and the reliability of the observed features in the obtained velocity model. By testing various inversion parameters and starting models, we derived a detailed near-surface velocity model that reveals the significance of the old glacial valley structures. Hence, this new 3D model improves the velocity model derived previously from a 2D seismic profile line in that area. Furthermore, processing of the dense 3C data shows clear reflections on both inline and crossline profiles. Correlating single reflection events enables us to identify the origin of reflections recorded in the data and reveal their 3D character. This array data gives strong evidence for reflections coming from the side, possibly from the steeply dipping valley flanks. Finally, the data will be processed using advanced seismic imaging methods to derive a detailed structural image of the valley and the fault zone at depth. Thus, the results will provide a detailed basis for a seismic site characterization at the DFDP-2 drill site, that will be of crucial importance for further structural and geological investigations of the architecture of the Alpine Fault in this area.

Deformation, Fluid Flow and Mantle Serpentinization at Oceanic Transform Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupke, L.; Hasenclever, J.

2017-12-01

Oceanic transform faults (OTF) and fracture zones have long been hypothesized to be sites of enhanced fluid flow and biogeochemical exchange. In this context, the serpentine forming interaction between seawater and cold lithospheric mantle rocks is particularly interesting. The transformation of peridotite to serpentinite not only leads to hydration of oceanic plates and is thereby an important agent of the geological water cycle, it is also a mechanism of abiotic hydrogen and methane formation, which can support archeal and bacterial communities at the seafloor. Inferring the likely amount of mantle undergoing serpentinization reactions therefore allows estimating the amount of biomass that may be autotrophically produced at and around oceanic transform faults and mid-ocean ridges Here we present results of 3-D geodynamic model simulations that explore the interrelations between deformation, fluid flow, and mantle serpentinization at oceanic transform faults. We investigate how slip rate and fault offset affect the predicted patterns of mantle serpentinization around oceanic transform faults. Global rates of mantle serpentinization and associated H2 production are calculated by integrating the modeling results with plate boundary data. The global additional OTF-related production of H2 is found to be between 6.1 and 10.7 x 1011 mol per year, which is comparable to the predicted background mid-ocean ridge rate of 4.1 - 15.0 x 1011 mol H2/yr. This points to oceanic transform faults as potential sites of intense fluid-rock interaction, where chemosynthetic life could be sustained by serpentinization reactions.

Three-Dimensional Analysis of dike/fault interaction at Mono Basin (California) using the Finite Element Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Marra, D.; Battaglia, M.

2013-12-01

Mono Basin is a north-trending graben that extends from the northern edge of Long Valley caldera towards the Bodie Hills and is bounded by the Cowtrack Mountains on the east and the Sierra Nevada on the west. The Mono-Inyo Craters volcanic chain forms a north-trending zone of volcanic vents extending from the west moat of the Long Valley caldera to Mono Lake. The Hartley Springs fault transects the southern Mono Craters-Inyo Domes area between the western part of the Long Valley caldera and June Lake. Stratigraphic data suggest that a series of strong earthquakes occurred during the North Mono-Inyo eruption sequence of ~1350 A.D. The spatial and temporal proximity between Hartley Springs Fault motion and the North Mono-Inyo eruption sequence suggests a possible relation between seismic events and eruptions. We investigate the interactions between slip along the Hartley Springs fault and dike intrusion beneath the Mono-Inyo craters using a three-dimensional finite element model of the Mono Basin. We employ a realistic representation of the Basin that includes topography, vertical and lateral heterogeneities of the crust, contact relations between fault planes, and a physical model of the pressure required to propagate the dike. We estimate (a) the distribution of Coulomb stress changes to study the influence of dike intrusion on Hartley Springs fault, and (b) the local stress and volumetric dilatation changes to understand how fault slip may influence the propagation of a dike towards the surface.

LiDAR-Assisted identification of an active fault near Truckee, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, L.E.; Howle, J.F.; Rose, R.S.; Bawden, G.W.

2011-01-01

We use high-resolution (1.5-2.4 points/m2) bare-earth airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery to identify, map, constrain, and visualize fault-related geomorphology in densely vegetated terrain surrounding Martis Creek Dam near Truckee, California. Bare-earth LiDAR imagery reveals a previously unrecognized and apparently youthful right-lateral strike-slip fault that exhibits laterally continuous tectonic geomorphic features over a 35-km-long zone. If these interpretations are correct, the fault, herein named the Polaris fault, may represent a significant seismic hazard to the greater Truckee-Lake Tahoe and Reno-Carson City regions. Three-dimensional modeling of an offset late Quaternary terrace riser indicates a minimum tectonic slip rate of 0.4 ?? 0.1 mm/yr.Mapped fault patterns are fairly typical of regional patterns elsewhere in the northern Walker Lane and are in strong coherence with moderate magnitude historical seismicity of the immediate area, as well as the current regional stress regime. Based on a range of surface-rupture lengths and depths to the base of the seismogenic zone, we estimate a maximum earthquake magnitude (M) for the Polaris fault to be between 6.4 and 6.9.

Why did the 1756 Tjellefonna rockslide occur? A back-analysis of the largest historic rockslide in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandøy, Gro; Oppikofer, Thierry; Nilsen, Bjørn

2017-07-01

On 22 February 1756 the largest historically recorded rockslide in Norway took place at Tjelle in the Langfjord (Western Norway). The rockslide created three displacement waves of up to 50 m in height that caused 32 casualties and destroyed most houses and boats along the shores of the Langfjord. The trigger and contributing factors leading to the Tjellefonna rockslide are largely unknown and even seismic triggering has previously been suggested. This study provides a thorough back-analysis of the Tjellefonna rockslide using detailed geomorphological, engineering geological and tectonic field mapping in combination with topographic reconstructions, bathymetry analysis, volume estimations and numerical slope stability analysis. The back-scarp and eastern flank of the Tjellefonna scar form several tens of meter high rock walls, while the basal failure surface and other parts of the scar are covered by rock avalanche debris that extend from the back-scarp down to the bottom of the Langfjord. The rockslide occurred in granodioritic gneisses with variably developed metamorphic foliation that is folded and strike parallel to the fjord. Two prominent fault zones are present in close proximity to the Tjellefonna scar; one is steeply SE-dipping (Tjelle fault), while the other one is sub-horizontal to shallow SE-dipping (Ritlehamran fault). Both fault zones are linked to the Møre-Trøndelag Fault Complex, with one of its branches forming the Langfjord lineament and probably also the faults at Tjellefonna. Additionally, there are four persistent joint sets that together with the metamorphic foliation and the Tjelle fault define the back-scarp of the rockslide and give a fracturing of the rock mass corresponding to a Geological Strength Index (GSI) of 45-55. The GSI decreases significantly to 10-20 in the fault zones, which form distinct weakness zones in the rock slope. Volume estimates based on a reconstruction of the ante-rockslide topography range from 9.3 to 10.4 million m3, which is lower than previous volume estimates (12-15 million m3). Large portions of the failed rock mass remained on land and only approximately 3.9 million m3 entered the fjord. The observed discontinuities in the rock mass at Tjellefonna do not allow for a simple kinematic failure mechanism due to the lack of moderately SE-dipping structures. The basal failure surface was most likely not composed of a single structure, but of a complex interplay of fault zones, metamorphic foliation, joints and broken rock bridges. Numerical slope stability modelling highlights that weak fault zones are essential for the development of the failure surface over a long time. This progressive failure was likely aided by low- to medium-magnitude earthquakes that are frequent in the region. Numerical slope stability modelling and historical accounts suggest, however, that heavy, long-lasting rainfall was the triggering factor for the 1756 Tjellefonna rockslide rather than an earthquake.

Constraints on fault slip rates of the southern California plate boundary from GPS velocity and stress inversions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, T.W.; Hardebeck, J.L.; Anderson, G.

2005-01-01

We use Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and stress orientations inferred from seismicity to invert for the distribution of slip on faults in the southern California plate-boundary region. Of particular interest is how long-term slip rates are partitioned between the Indio segment of the San Andreas fault (SAF), the San Jacinto fault (SJF) and the San Bernardino segment of the SAE We use two new sets of constraints to address this problem. The first is geodetic velocities from the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Crustal Motion Map (version 3 by Shen et al.), which includes significantly more data than previous models. The second is a regional model of stress-field orientations at seismogenic depths, as determined from earthquake focal mechanisms. While GPS data have been used in similar studies before, this is the first application of stress-field observations to this problem. We construct a simplified model of the southern California fault system, and estimate the interseismic surface velocities using a backslip approach with purely elastic strain accumulation, following Meade et al. In addition, we model the stress orientations at seismogenic depths, assuming that crustal stress results from the loading of active faults. The geodetically derived stressing rates are found to be aligned with the stress orientations from seismicity. We therefore proceed to invert simultaneously GPS and stress observations for slip rates of the faults in our network. We find that the regional patterns of crustal deformation as imaged by both data sets can be explained by our model, and that joint inversions lead to better constrained slip rates. In our preferred model, the SJF accommodates ???15 mm yr-1 and the Indio segment of the SAF ???23 mm yr-1 of right-lateral motion, accompanied by a low slip rate on the San Bernardino segment of the SAF 'Anomalous' fault segments such as around the 1992 Mw = 7.3 Landers surface rupture can be detected. There, observed stresses deviate strongly from the long-term loading as predicted by our simple model. Evaluation of model misfits together with information from palaeoseismology may provide further insights into the time dependence of strain accumulation along the San Andreas system. ?? 2004 RAS.

Variable slip-rate and slip-per-event on a plate boundary fault: The Dead Sea fault in northern Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wechsler, Neta; Rockwell, Thomas K.; Klinger, Yann

2018-01-01

We resolved displacement on buried stream channels that record the past 3400 years of slip history for the Jordan Gorge (JGF) section of the Dead Sea fault in Israel. Based on three-dimensional (3D) trenching, slip in the past millennium amounts to only 2.7 m, similar to that determined in previous studies, whereas the previous millennium experienced two to three times this amount of displacement with nearly 8 m of cumulative slip, indicating substantial short term variations in slip rate. The slip rate averaged over the past 3400 years, as determined from 3D trenching, is 4.1 mm/yr, which agrees well with geodetic estimates of strain accumulation, as well as with longer-term geologic slip rate estimates. Our results indicate that: 1) the past 1200 years appear to significantly lack slip, which may portend a significant increase in future seismic activity; 2) short-term slip rates for the past two millennia have varied by more than a factor of two and suggest that past behavior is best characterized by clustering of earthquakes. From these observations, the earthquake behavior of the Jordan Gorge fault best fits is a "weak segment model" where the relatively short fault section (20 km), bounded by releasing steps, fails on its own in moderate earthquakes, or ruptures with adjacent segments.

Accelerating slip rates on the puente hills blind thrust fault system beneath metropolitan Los Angeles, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bergen, Kristian J.; Shaw, John H.; Leon, Lorraine A.; Dolan, James F.; Pratt, Thomas L.; Ponti, Daniel J.; Morrow, Eric; Barrera, Wendy; Rhodes, Edward J.; Murari, Madhav K.; Owen, Lewis A.

2017-01-01

Slip rates represent the average displacement across a fault over time and are essential to estimating earthquake recurrence for proba-bilistic seismic hazard assessments. We demonstrate that the slip rate on the western segment of the Puente Hills blind thrust fault system, which is beneath downtown Los Angeles, California (USA), has accel-erated from ~0.22 mm/yr in the late Pleistocene to ~1.33 mm/yr in the Holocene. Our analysis is based on syntectonic strata derived from the Los Angeles River, which has continuously buried a fold scarp above the blind thrust. Slip on the fault beneath our field site began during the late-middle Pleistocene and progressively increased into the Holocene. This increase in rate implies that the magnitudes and/or the frequency of earthquakes on this fault segment have increased over time. This challenges the characteristic earthquake model and presents an evolving and potentially increasing seismic hazard to metropolitan Los Angeles.

Active fault tolerant control based on interval type-2 fuzzy sliding mode controller and non linear adaptive observer for 3-DOF laboratory helicopter.

PubMed

Zeghlache, Samir; Benslimane, Tarak; Bouguerra, Abderrahmen

2017-11-01

In this paper, a robust controller for a three degree of freedom (3 DOF) helicopter control is proposed in presence of actuator and sensor faults. For this purpose, Interval type-2 fuzzy logic control approach (IT2FLC) and sliding mode control (SMC) technique are used to design a controller, named active fault tolerant interval type-2 Fuzzy Sliding mode controller (AFTIT2FSMC) based on non-linear adaptive observer to estimate and detect the system faults for each subsystem of the 3-DOF helicopter. The proposed control scheme allows avoiding difficult modeling, attenuating the chattering effect of the SMC, reducing the rules number of the fuzzy controller. Exponential stability of the closed loop is guaranteed by using the Lyapunov method. The simulation results show that the AFTIT2FSMC can greatly alleviate the chattering effect, providing good tracking performance, even in presence of actuator and sensor faults. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observer-Based Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control of Nonlinear Nonstrict-Feedback Systems.

PubMed

Wu, Chengwei; Liu, Jianxing; Xiong, Yongyang; Wu, Ligang

2017-06-28

This paper studies an output-based adaptive fault-tolerant control problem for nonlinear systems with nonstrict-feedback form. Neural networks are utilized to identify the unknown nonlinear characteristics in the system. An observer and a general fault model are constructed to estimate the unavailable states and describe the fault, respectively. Adaptive parameters are constructed to overcome the difficulties in the design process for nonstrict-feedback systems. Meanwhile, dynamic surface control technique is introduced to avoid the problem of ''explosion of complexity''. Furthermore, based on adaptive backstepping control method, an output-based adaptive neural tracking control strategy is developed for the considered system against actuator fault, which can ensure that all the signals in the resulting closed-loop system are bounded, and the system output signal can be regulated to follow the response of the given reference signal with a small error. Finally, the simulation results are provided to validate the effectiveness of the control strategy proposed in this paper.

Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

2017-07-01

We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.