Science.gov

Sample records for estimated health risks

  1. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.

  2. Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1981-11-01

    A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US population.

  3. Sensitivity of health risk estimates to air quality adjustment procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.

    1997-06-30

    This letter is a summary of risk results associated with exposure estimates using two-parameter Weibull and quadratic air quality adjustment procedures (AQAPs). New exposure estimates were developed for children and child-occurrences, six urban areas, and five alternative air quality scenarios. In all cases, the Weibull and quadratic results are compared to previous results, which are based on a proportional AQAP.

  4. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Duarte, A S R; Nauta, M J

    2015-02-16

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance of accounting for the Poisson randomness in counts, the difference between treating "true" zeroes as such or as censored below a limit of quantification (LOQ) and the importance of making the correct assumption about the underlying distribution of concentrations. By running a simulation experiment with zero-inflated Poisson-lognormal distributed data and an existing QMRA model from retail to consumer level, it was possible to assess the difference between expected risk and the risk estimated with using a lognormal, a zero-inflated lognormal, a Poisson-gamma, a zero-inflated Poisson-gamma and a zero-inflated Poisson-lognormal distribution. We show that the impact of the choice of different probability distributions to describe concentrations at retail on risk estimates is dependent both on concentration and prevalence levels. We also show that the use of an LOQ should be done consciously, especially when zero-inflation is not used. In general, zero-inflation does not necessarily improve the absolute risk estimation, but performance of zero-inflated distributions in QMRA tends to be

  5. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes.

  6. Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

    2017-03-01

    When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

  7. Prospective method for estimating occupational health risks in new energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Moskowitz, P D; Briggs, T; Ungers, L; Hamilton, L D

    1981-09-01

    In design, development, and acceptance of new energy technologies, concern for health and safety is increasingly important. Determining risks for emerging technologies is difficult because health statistics associated with these new alternatives are unavailable. Nevertheless boundaries on such risks must be determined to identify potentially significant hazards and to permit technology comparisons to be made. An approach to determining occupational health costs is to disaggregate labor requirements of an emerging industy by different worker classifications. Risks to workers can then be determined for these classifications from occupational health statistics of related industries. By summing risks for each worker classification, prospective estimates of individual and societal risk from an emerging technology can be developed. Although this approach identifies accident-related effects, it cannot be used to quantitate occupationally induced disease. An example of this method analyzing different photovoltaic fabrication alternatives is given. Individual vs. societal risk is considered in these analyses.

  8. Estimated human health risks of disposing of nonhazardous oil field waste in salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-09-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. In this assessment, several steps were used to evaluate potential human health risks: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing the contaminants` toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and, finally, calculating human cancer and noncancer risks.

  9. Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models.

    PubMed

    Allan, Sarah E; Sower, Gregory J; Anderson, Kim A

    2011-10-01

    Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks.

  10. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM…

  11. The economic value of reducing environmental health risks: Contingent valuation estimates of the value of information

    SciTech Connect

    Krieger, D.J.; Hoehn, J.P.

    1999-05-01

    Obtaining economically consistent values for changes in low probability health risks continues to be a challenge for contingent valuation (CV) as well as for other valuation methods. One of the cited condition for economic consistency is that estimated values be sensitive to the scope (differences in quantity or quality) of a good described in a CV application. The alleged limitations of CV pose a particular problem for environmental managers who must often make decisions that affect human health risks. This paper demonstrates that a well-designed CV application can elicit scope sensitive values even for programs that provide conceptually complex goods such as risk reduction. Specifically, it finds that the amount sport anglers are willing to pay for information about chemical residues in fish varies systematically with informativeness--a relationship suggested by the theory of information value.

  12. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men

    PubMed Central

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegría-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain “hidden” from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in rural North Carolina. Methods A community-based participatory research (CBPR) partnership used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to identify, recruit, and enroll Latino MSM to participate in an interviewer-administered behavioral assessment. RDS weighted prevalence of risk behaviors was estimated using the RDS Analysis Tool. Data collection occurred in 2008. Results A total of 190 Latino MSM was reached; the average age was 25.5 years old and nearly 80% reported being from Mexico. Prevalence estimates of smoking everyday and past 30-day heavy episodic drinking were 6.5% and 35.0%, respectively. Prevalence estimates of past 12-month marijuana and cocaine use were 56.0% and 27.1%, respectively. Past 3-month prevalence estimates of sex with at least one woman, multiple male partners, and inconsistent condom use were 21.2%, 88.9%, and 54.1%, respectively. Conclusions Respondents had low rates of tobacco use and club drug use, and high rates of sexual risk behaviors. Although this study represents an initial step in documenting the health risk behaviors of immigrant Latino MSM who are part of a new trend in Latino immigration to the southeastern US, a need exists for further research, including longitudinal studies to understand the trajectory of risk behavior among immigrant Latino MSM. PMID:22236317

  13. Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.

    PubMed

    Preston, R Julian; Boice, John D; Brill, A Bertrand; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Conolly, Rory; Hoffman, F Owen; Hornung, Richard W; Kocher, David C; Land, Charles E; Shore, Roy E; Woloschak, Gayle E

    2013-09-01

    The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose

  14. Health risk estimates for groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic: a convenient tool for identification and mapping of risk areas.

    PubMed

    Fajčíková, K; Cvečková, V; Stewart, A; Rapant, S

    2014-10-01

    We undertook a quantitative estimation of health risks to residents living in the Slovak Republic and exposed to contaminated groundwater (ingestion by adult population) and/or soils (ingestion by adult and child population). Potential risk areas were mapped to give a visual presentation at basic administrative units of the country (municipalities, districts, regions) for easy discussion with policy and decision-makers. The health risk estimates were calculated by US EPA methods, applying threshold values for chronic risk and non-threshold values for cancer risk. The potential health risk was evaluated for As, Ba, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, NO3 (-), Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for groundwater and As, B, Ba, Be, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for soils. An increased health risk was identified mainly in historical mining areas highly contaminated by geogenic-anthropogenic sources (ore deposit occurrence, mining, metallurgy). Arsenic and antimony were the most significant elements in relation to health risks from groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic contributing a significant part of total chronic risk levels. Health risk estimation for soil contamination has highlighted the significance of exposure through soil ingestion in children. Increased cancer risks from groundwater and soil contamination by arsenic were noted in several municipalities and districts throughout the country in areas with significantly high arsenic levels in the environment. This approach to health risk estimations and visualization represents a fast, clear and convenient tool for delineation of risk areas at national and local levels.

  15. Risk estimates for deterministic health effects of inhaled weapons grade plutonium.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bobby R; Peterson, Vern L

    2003-09-01

    Risk estimates for deterministic effects of inhaled weapons-grade plutonium (WG Pu) are needed to evaluate potential serious harm to (1) U.S. Department of Energy nuclear workers from accidental or other work-place releases of WG Pu; and (2) the public from terrorist actions resulting in the release of WG Pu to the environment. Deterministic health effects (the most serious radiobiological consequences to humans) can arise when large amounts of WG Pu are taken into the body. Inhalation is considered the most likely route of intake during work-place accidents or during a nuclear terrorism incident releasing WG Pu to the environment. Our current knowledge about radiation-related harm is insufficient for generating precise estimates of risk for a given WG Pu exposure scenario. This relates largely to uncertainties associated with currently available risk and dosimetry models. Thus, rather than generating point estimates of risk, distributions that account for variability/uncertainty are needed to properly characterize potential harm to humans from a given WG Pu exposure scenario. In this manuscript, we generate and summarize risk distributions for deterministic radiation effects in the lungs of nuclear workers from inhaled WG Pu particles (standard isotopic mix). These distributions were developed using NUREG/CR-4214 risk models and time-dependent, dose conversion factor data based on Publication 30 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 30 are more relevant to deterministic effects than are the dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 66, which relate to targets for stochastic effects. Risk distributions that account for NUREG/CR-4214 parameter and model uncertainties were generated using the Monte Carlo method. Risks were evaluated for both lethality (from radiation pneumonitis) and morbidity (due to radiation-induced respiratory dysfunction) and were found to depend strongly on absorbed

  16. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document.

  17. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A.; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

    2014-01-01

    Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757

  18. Estimating the Influence of Oil and Gas Emissions on Urban Ozone and Associated Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capps, S.; Nsanzineza, R.; Turner, M. D.; Henze, D. K.; Zhao, S.; Russell, M. G.; Hakami, A.; Milford, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) degrades air quality, impacting human health and public welfare. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) is designed to limit these impacts, but certain areas in the continental U.S. exceed this standard. Mitigating O3 NAAQS exceedances by designing emissions controls can be complicated in urban areas because of the long-range transport of ozone and its gaseous precursors as well as the complex mix of local emissions sources. Recent growth of unconventional oil and gas development near urban areas in Colorado, Texas, and the northeastern corridor has exacerbated this problem. To estimate the contribution of emissions from oil and gas development to urban O3 issues, we apply the CMAQ adjoint, which efficiently elucidates the relative influence of emissions sources on select concentration-based metrics. Specifically, the adjoint is used to calculate the spatially-specific relative contributions of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) throughout the continental U.S. to O3 NAAQS exceedances and to ozone-related health risks in select urban areas. By evaluating these influences for different urban areas, including one in California that has been managing air quality with adjacent oil and gas development for a longer period of time, we are able to compare and contrast the emissions control strategies that may be more effective in particular regions. Additionally, the resulting relationships between emissions and concentrations provide a way to project ozone impacts when measurements provide refined estimates of emissions from this sector.

  19. Use of health effect risk estimates and uncertainty in formal regulatory proceedings: a case study involving atmospheric particulates

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Oezkaynak, A.H.

    1984-01-01

    Coal combustion particulates are released to the atmosphere by power plants supplying electrical to the nuclear fuel cycle. This paper presents estimates of the public health risks associated with the release of these particulates at a rate associated with the annual nuclear fuel production requirements for a nuclear power plan. Utilization of these risk assessments as a new component in the formal evaluation of total risks from nuclear power plants is discussed. 23 references, 3 tables.

  20. Exposures from indoor spraying of chlorpyrifos pose greater health risks to children than currently estimated.

    PubMed Central

    Davis, D L; Ahmed, A K

    1998-01-01

    Recent findings of indoor exposure studies of chlorpyrifos indicate that young children are at higher risks to the semivolatile pesticide than had been previously estimated [Gurunathan et al., Environ Health Perspect 106:9-16 (1998)]. The study showed that after a single broadcast use of the pesticide by certified applicators in apartment rooms, chlorpyrifos continued to accumulate on children's toys and hard surfaces 2 weeks after spraying. Based on the findings of this and other research studies, the estimated chlorpyrifos exposure levels from indoor spraying for children are approximately 21-119 times above the current recommended reference dose of 3 microg/kg/day from all sources. A joint agreement reached between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the registrants of chlorpyrifos-based products will phase out a number of indoor uses of the pesticide, including broadcast spraying and direct uses on pets. While crack and crevice treatment of insects (such as cockroaches and termites) by chlorpyrifos will still continue, it appears prudent to explore other insect control options, including the use of baits, traps, and insect sterilants and growth regulators. To ensure global protection, adequate dissemination of appropriate safety and regulatory information to developing regions of the world is critical, where importation and local production of chlorpyrifos-based products for indoor uses may be significant. PMID:9618343

  1. Estimating the Tradeoff Between Risk Protection and Moral Hazard with a Nonlinear Budget Set Model of Health Insurance*

    PubMed Central

    Kowalski, Amanda E.

    2015-01-01

    Insurance induces a tradeoff between the welfare gains from risk protection and the welfare losses from moral hazard. Empirical work traditionally estimates each side of the tradeoff separately, potentially yielding mutually inconsistent results. I develop a nonlinear budget set model of health insurance that allows for both simultaneously. Nonlinearities in the budget set arise from deductibles, coinsurance rates, and stoplosses that alter moral hazard as well as risk protection. I illustrate the properties of my model by estimating it using data on employer sponsored health insurance from a large firm. PMID:26664035

  2. Impact of Pesticide Exposure Misclassification on Estimates of Related Risks in the Agricultural Health Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: The Agricultural Health Study (AHS) is a prospective study of licensed pesticide applicators (largely fanners) and their spouses in Iowa and North Carolina. We evaluate the impact of occupational pesticide exposure misclassification on relative risks using data from t...

  3. Estimated effect of ventilation and filtration on chronic health risks in U.S. offices, schools, and retail stores.

    PubMed

    Chan, W R; Parthasarathy, S; Fisk, W J; McKone, T E

    2016-04-01

    We assessed the chronic health risks from inhalation exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM2.5) in U.S. offices, schools, grocery, and other retail stores and evaluated how chronic health risks were affected by changes in ventilation rates and air filtration efficiency. Representative concentrations of VOCs and PM2.5 were obtained from available data. Using a mass balance model, changes in exposure to VOCs and PM2.5 were predicted if ventilation rate were to increase or decrease by a factor of two, and if higher efficiency air filters were used. Indoor concentrations were compared to health guidelines to estimate percentage exceedances. The estimated chronic health risks associated with VOC and PM2.5 exposures in these buildings were low relative to the risks from exposures in homes. Chronic health risks were driven primarily by exposures to PM2.5 that were evaluated using disease incidence of mortality, chronic bronchitis, and non-fatal stroke. The leading cancer risk factor was exposure to formaldehyde. Using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to account for both cancer and non-cancer effects, results suggest that increasing ventilation alone is ineffective at reducing chronic health burdens. Other strategies, such as pollutant source control and the use of particle filtration, should also be considered.

  4. [Medical insurance estimation of risks].

    PubMed

    Dunér, H

    1975-11-01

    The purpose of insurance medicine is to make a prognostic estimate of medical risk-factors in persons who apply for life, health, or accident insurance. Established risk-groups with a calculated average mortality and morbidity form the basis for premium rates and insurance terms. In most cases the applicant is accepted for insurance after a self-assessment of his health. Only around one per cent of the applications are refused, but there are cases in which the premium is raised, temporarily or permanently. It is often a matter of rough estimate, since the knowlege of the long-term prognosis for many diseases is incomplete. The insurance companies' rules for estimate of risk are revised at intervals of three or four years. The estimate of risk as regards life insurance has been gradually liberalised, while the medical conditions for health insurance have become stricter owing to an increase in the claims rate.

  5. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  6. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  7. Estimation of the health risks associated with polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations found onboard older U.S. Navy vessels.

    PubMed

    Still, K R; Arfsten, D P; Jederberg, W W; Kane, L V; Larcom, B J

    2003-10-01

    PCBs have been identified on surfaces and in component materials and equipment from inactive U.S. Navy nuclear submarines commissioned prior to 1970. Health risks associated with PCBs present onboard submarines were estimated for hypothetical crew members and shipyard workers. Median non-cancer hazard quotients for shipyard workers and submarine crew ranged between 0.4-54.6, with the highest quotients estimated for unprotected shipyard workers. Median cancer risk estimates ranged from 7.3 x 10(-6) to 1.1 x 10(-3) with the highest estimated risk calculated for unprotected shipyard workers. Our findings suggest that PCB surface concentrations found onboard inactive nuclear submarines commissioned prior to 1970 may be high enough to constitute a possible risk to the health of persons involved in dismantling of Navy submarines if PCB exposure is not minimized. Potential sources of uncertainty in our risk assessment include the correlation between PCB contamination levels on inactive versus active nuclear submarine vessels, the relationship between wipe sample concentrations and human exposure, dermal contact frequency with PCB-contaminated surfaces, carcinogenicity of PCBs in humans, and uncertainties inherent with the PCB cancer slope factor and oral RfD. Our findings support Navy policy that shipyard workers should wear personal protective equipment when PCB contamination is suspected or has been identified and that IH surveys should continue to identify sources of PCB contamination onboard vessels and reduce PCB contamination to concentrations that are reasonably achievable.

  8. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    PubMed

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  9. Estimation of human health risk associated with the consumption of pesticide-contaminated vegetables from Kumasi, Ghana.

    PubMed

    Akoto, Osei; Gavor, Sandra; Appah, Martin K; Apau, Joseph

    2015-05-01

    Analysis of pesticides consisting of 12 organophosphates (OPs), 10 organochlorines (OCs), and 6 pyrethroids in vegetables from Kumasi was conducted. Vegetable samples comprising 20 each of eggplants, okra, and tomatoes were analyzed. The method involves solvent extraction of pesticide residues followed by cleanup using silica gel. Residue analysis was carried out using a GC equipped with pulsed flame photometric detector for OP residues and electron capture detector for OC and pyrethroid residues. The results revealed that methamidophos exceeded the maximum residue limits (MRLs) in all vegetable commodities. Levels of malathion and dimethoate also exceeded the MRLs in eggplant and tomato samples. Endrin, α-endosulfan, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), γ-chlordane, and heptachlor exceeded their MRLs in okra samples whereas methoxychlor, allethrin, and deltamethrin exceeded in eggplant samples. Health risk estimation revealed that dimethoate in tomato and endrin, heptachlor, γ-HCH, and γ-chlordane in okra could not pose potential toxicity to the consumer. The combined risk index showed no health risk to consumers due to intake of pyrethroid OC and OP residue on these vegetables. The overall risk index for combined pesticides due to consumption of all the vegetables was higher than 1, which signifies potential health risk to consumers. OPs were the major risk contributor for both eggplant and tomatoes which accounted for 87.78 and 95.84%, respectively, of the combined risk of pesticides in the vegetables. However, OC with 97.94% of the combined risk index was the major risk contributor for the okra. The carcinogenic risk of the OCs in okra was of no concern since their carcinogenic rates were below the acceptable risk level.

  10. Risk estimation to human health caused by the mercury content of Sushi and Sashimi sold in Japanese restaurants in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Alves, Jeanne Clécia; Lima de Paiva, Esther; Milani, Raquel Fernanda; Bearzoti, Eduardo; Morgano, Marcelo Antonio; Diego Quintaes, Késia

    2017-03-08

    Although fish is a healthy alternative for meat, it can be a vehicle for mercury (Hg), including in its most toxic organic form, methylmercury (MeHg). The objective of the present study was to estimate the risk to human health caused by the consumption of sushi and sashimi as commercialized by Japanese food restaurants in the city of Campinas (SP, Brazil). The total Hg content was determined by atomic absorption spectrometry with thermal decomposition and amalgamation, and the MeHg content calculated considering that 90% of the total Hg is in the organic form. The health risk was estimated from the values for the provisional tolerable weekly ingestion (PTWI) by both adults and children. The mean concentrations for total Hg were: 147.99, 6.13, and 3.42 µg kg(-1) in the tuna, kani, and salmon sushi samples, respectively, and 589.09, 85.09, and 11.38 µg kg(-1) in the tuna, octopus and salmon sashimi samples, respectively. The tuna samples showed the highest Hg concentrations. One portion of tuna sashimi exceeded the PTWI value for MeHg established for children and adults. The estimate of risk for human health indicated that the level of toxicity depended on the type of fish and size of the portion consumed.

  11. Estimation of bioaccessibility and potential human health risk of mercury in Chinese patent medicines.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lihong; Zhang, Yu; Yun, Zhaojun; He, Bin; Jiang, Guibin

    2016-01-01

    Mercury (Hg), mainly in cinnabar species, has been used in medicine for thousands of years in China, and worldwide concern has been raised on its toxicity. In this work, the amount of bioaccessible mercury in 16 Chinese patent medicines (CPMs) was measured by using an in vitro simulated digestion system, consisting of simulated gastric and intestinal fluid, to investigate the bioavailability of mercury in CPMs and evaluate its potential risk to human health. Total mercury and mercury in the gastrointestinal extracts were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The levels of total Hg in 16 CPMs ranged from not detected to 11.89 mg/g, with a mean value of 1.13 mg/g, while the extractable Hg ranged from not detected to 4.37 μg/g, with a mean value of 0.42 μg/g. Mercury bioaccessibility varied significantly in the investigated CPMs, depending on the ingredient. Compared to the CPMs without cinnabar (2.5%-30.9%), the percentage of mercury in the gastrointestinal supernatants for CPMs with cinnabar was quite a bit lower (0.037%). By comparing with the Food and Agricultural Organization/World Health Organization Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives (FAO/WHO) safety guideline, the average daily intake dose (ADD) of Hg in the medicines was then calculated to access the risk of mercury to human health from taking CPMs.

  12. Estimating Radiogenic Cancer Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document presents a revised methodology for EPA's estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation exposures developed in light of information that has become available, especially new information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

  13. Estimating the Return on Investment From a Health Risk Management Program Offered to Small Colorado-Based Employers

    PubMed Central

    Goetzel, Ron Z.; Tabrizi, Maryam; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Brockbank, Claire v. S.; Stinson, Kaylan; Trotter, Margo; Newman, Lee S.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether changes in health risks for workers in small businesses can produce medical and productivity cost savings. Methods A 1-year pre- and posttest study tracked changes in 10 modifiable health risks for 2458 workers at 121 Colorado businesses that participated in a comprehensive worksite health promotion program. Risk reductions were entered into a return-on-investment (ROI) simulation model. Results Reductions were recorded in 10 risk factors examined, including obesity (−2.0%), poor eating habits (−5.8%), poor physical activity (−6.5%), tobacco use (−1.3%), high alcohol consumption (−1.7%), high stress (−3.5%), depression (−2.3%), high blood pressure (−0.3%), high total cholesterol (−0.9%), and high blood glucose (−0.2%). The ROI model estimated medical and productivity savings of $2.03 for every $1.00 invested. Conclusions Pooled data suggest that small businesses can realize a positive ROI from effective risk reduction programs. PMID:24806569

  14. Estimating NOA Health Risks from Selected Construction Activities at the Calaveras Dam Replacement Project (CDRP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    The CDRP is a major construction project involving up to 400 workers using heavy earth moving equipment, blasting, drilling, rock crushing, and other techniques designed to move 7 million yards of earth. Much of this material is composed of serpentinite, blueschist, and other rocks that contain chrysotile, crocidolite, actinolite, tremolite, and Libby-class amphiboles. To date, over 1,000 personal, work area, and emission inventory related samples have been collected and analyzed by NIOSH 7400, NIOSH 7402, and CARB-AHERA methodology. Data indicate that various CDRP construction activities have the potential to generate significant mineral fibers and structures that could represent elevated on site and off site health risks. This presentation will review the Contractors air monitoring program for this major project, followed by a discussion of predictive methods to evaluate potential onsite and offsite risks. Ultimately, the data are used for planning control strategies designed to achieve a Project Action Level of 0.01 f/cc (one tenth the Cal/OSHA PEL) and risk-based offsite target levels.

  15. Estimation of the cardiovascular risk using World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts in a rural population of South India

    PubMed Central

    Ghorpade, Arun Gangadhar; Shrivastava, Saurabh RamBihariLal; Kar, Sitanshu Sekhar; Sarkar, Sonali; Majgi, Sumanth Mallikarjuna; Roy, Gautam

    2015-01-01

    Background: World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts have been employed to predict the risk of cardiovascular outcome in heterogeneous settings. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors and to estimate the cardiovascular risk among adults aged >40 years, utilizing the risk charts alone, and by the addition of other parameters. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in two of the villages availing health services of a medical college. Overall 570 subjects completed the assessment. The desired information was obtained using a pre-tested questionnaire and participants were also subjected to anthropometric measurements and laboratory investigations. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for the South-East Asian region was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the study participants. Results: The study covered 570 adults aged above 40 years. The mean age of the subjects was 54.2 (±11.1) years and 53.3% subjects were women. Seventeen percent of the participants had moderate to high risk for the occurrence of cardiovascular events by using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. In addition, CVD risk factors like smoking, alcohol, low High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were found in 32%, 53%, 56.3%, and 61.5% study participants, respectively. Conclusion: Categorizing people as low (<10%)/moderate (10%-20%)/high (>20%) risk is one of the crucial steps to mitigate the magnitude of cardiovascular fatal/non-fatal outcome. This cross-sectional study indicates that there is a high burden of CVD risk in the rural Pondicherry as assessed by WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Use of WHO/ISH charts is easy and inexpensive screening tool in predicting the cardiovascular event PMID:26340393

  16. Study on the flood simulation techniques for estimation of health risk in Dhaka city, Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, M.; Suetsugi, T.; Sunada, K.; ICRE

    2011-12-01

    Although some studies have been carried out on the spread of infectious disease with the flooding, the relation between flooding and the infectious expansion has not been clarified yet. The improvement of the calculation precision of inundation and its relation with the infectious disease, surveyed epidemiologically, are therefore investigated in a case study in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. The inundation was computed using a flood simulation model that is numerical 2D-model. The "sensitivity to inundation" of hydraulic factors such as drainage channel, dike, and the building occupied ratio was examined because of the lack of digital data set related to flood simulation. Each element in the flood simulation model was incorporated progressively and results were compared with the calculation result as inspection materials by the inundation classification from the existing study (Mollah et al., 2007). The results show that the influences by ''dyke'' and "drainage channel" factors are remarkable to water level near each facility. The inundation level and duration have influence on wide areas when "building occupied ratio" is also considered. The correlation between maximum inundation depth and health risk (DALY, Mortality, Morbidity) was found, but the validation of the inundation model for this case has not been performed yet. The flood simulation model needs to be validated by observed inundation depth. The drainage facilities such as sewer network or the pumping system will be also considered in the further research to improve the precision of the inundation model.

  17. Estimation of canine intestinal parasites in Córdoba (Spain) and their risk to public health.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Moreno, F J; Hernández, S; López-Cobos, E; Becerra, C; Acosta, I; Martínez-Moreno, A

    2007-01-19

    The prevalence of gastrointestinal parasites in dogs was studied in the province of Córdoba (southern Spain), with special attention to those parasites that can be transmitted to man. The experiment was completed with the examination of soil samples from public parks and city gardens. The study was carried out over a population of 1800 animals entered in the Control Animal Centre (CECA) by coprological methods, and within this group, 300 dogs were sacrificed and necropsied. The prevalence of any intestinal parasitic infection was 71.33%. The following parasites of the gastrointestinal tract were recorded: Isospora canis (22%), Isospora (Cystoisospora) spp. (10.22%), Sarcocystis (2.5%), Hammondia/Neospora (1.94%), Giardia canis (1%), Dipylidium caninum (13.2%), Taenia hydatigena (7.66%), Taenia pisiformis (4%), Uncinaria stenocephala (33.27%), Toxascaris leonina (14.94%), Toxocara canis (17.72%) and Trichuris vulpis (1.66%). Related to public health, it is important to point out the presence of T. canis only in puppies younger than one year and Uncinaria, more frequent in adult dogs. Soil samples of parks revealed the presence of eggs of Toxocara, and it suggests the existence of real risk for human infection.

  18. Injury Risk Estimation Expertise

    PubMed Central

    Petushek, Erich J.; Ward, Paul; Cokely, Edward T.; Myer, Gregory D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Simple observational assessment of movement is a potentially low-cost method for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury screening and prevention. Although many individuals utilize some form of observational assessment of movement, there are currently no substantial data on group skill differences in observational screening of ACL injury risk. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to compare various groups’ abilities to visually assess ACL injury risk as well as the associated strategies and ACL knowledge levels. The hypothesis was that sports medicine professionals would perform better than coaches and exercise science academics/students and that these subgroups would all perform better than parents and other general population members. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 428 individuals, including physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, strength and conditioning coaches, exercise science researchers/students, athletes, parents, and members of the general public participated in the study. Participants completed the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ) and answered questions related to assessment strategy and ACL knowledge. Results: Strength and conditioning coaches, athletic trainers, physical therapists, and exercise science students exhibited consistently superior ACL injury risk estimation ability (+2 SD) as compared with sport coaches, parents of athletes, and members of the general public. The performance of a substantial number of individuals in the exercise sciences/sports medicines (approximately 40%) was similar to or exceeded clinical instrument-based biomechanical assessment methods (eg, ACL nomogram). Parents, sport coaches, and the general public had lower ACL-IQ, likely due to their lower ACL knowledge and to rating the importance of knee/thigh motion lower and weight and jump height higher. Conclusion: Substantial cross-professional/group differences in visual ACL

  19. Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate health risks attributable to water supply: can the technique be applied in developing countries with limited data?

    PubMed

    Howard, Guy; Pedley, Steve; Tibatemwa, Sarah

    2006-03-01

    In the 3rd edition of its Guidelines for Drinking-Water Quality (2004) (GDWQ) the World Health Organization (WHO) promotes the use of risk assessment coupled with risk management for the control of water safety in drinking water supplies. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) provides a tool for estimating the disease-burden from pathogenic microorganisms in water using information about the distribution and occurrence of the pathogen or an appropriate surrogate. This information may then be used to inform decisions about appropriate management of the water supply system. Although QMRA has been used to estimate disease burden from water supplies in developed countries, the method has not been evaluated in developing countries where relevant data may be scarce. In this paper, we describe a simplified risk assessment procedure to calculate the disease burden from three reference pathogens--pathogenic Escherichia coli, Cryptosporidium parvum and rotavirus--in water supplies in Kampala, Uganda. The study shows how QMRA can be used in countries with limited data, and that the outcome can provide valuable information for the management of water supplies.

  20. Health risks of obesity

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000348.htm Health risks of obesity To use the sharing features on ... also have an increased risk of these conditions. Risk Factors Having a risk factor does not mean ...

  1. Estimating exposure and dose to characterize health risks: the role of human tissue monitoring in exposure assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Sexton, K; Callahan, M A; Bryan, E F

    1995-01-01

    Exposure assessment is an integral part of health risk characterization. Exposure assessments typically address three critical aspects of exposure: the number of people exposed to the environmental toxicant, at specific concentrations, for the time period of interest; the resulting dose; and the relative contribution of important sources and pathways to exposure/dose. Because historically both "point-of-contact" measurements and information about dose and related pharmacokinetic processes have been lacking, exposure assessments have had to rely on construction of "scenarios" to estimate exposure and dose. This could change, however, as advances in development of biologic markers of exposure and dose make it possible to measure and interpret toxicant concentrations in accessible human tissues. The increasing availability of "biomarkers," coupled with improvements in pharmacokinetic understanding, present opportunities to estimate ("reconstruct") exposure from measurements of dose and knowledge of intake and uptake parameters. Human tissue monitoring, however, is not a substitute for more traditional methods of measuring exposure, but rather a complementary approach. A combination of exposure measurements and dose measurements provides the most credible scientific basis for exposure assessment. PMID:7635107

  2. Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: Use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Laura E; Dickens, Geoffrey L

    2016-06-30

    The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its'component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

  3. InterCardioRisk: a novel online tool for estimating doses of ionising radiation to occupationally-exposed medical staff and their associated health risks.

    PubMed

    Moriña, David; Grellier, James; Carnicer, Adela; Pernot, Eileen; Ryckx, Nick; Cardis, Elisabeth

    2016-09-01

    Those working in interventional cardiology and related medical procedures are potentially subject to considerable exposure to x-rays. Two types of tissue of particular concern that may receive considerable doses during such procedures are the lens of the eye and the brain. Ocular radiation exposure results in lens changes that, with time, may progress to partial or total lens opacification (cataracts). In the early stages, such opacities do not result in visual disability; the severity of such changes tends to increase progressively with dose and time until vision is impaired and cataract surgery is required. Scattered radiation doses to the eye lens of an interventional cardiologist in typical working conditions can exceed 34 μGy min(-1) in high-dose fluoroscopy modes and 3 μGy per image during image acquisition (instantaneous rate values) when radiation protection tools are not used. A causal relation between exposure to ionising radiation and increased risk of brain and central nervous system tumours has been shown in a number of studies. Although absorbed doses to the brain in interventional cardiology procedures are lower than those to the eye lens by a factor between 3.40 and 8.08 according to our simulations, doses to both tissues are among the highest occupational radiation doses documented for medical staff whose work involves exposures to x-rays. We present InterCardioRisk, a tool featuring an easy-to-use web interface that provides a general estimation of both cumulated absorbed doses experienced by medical staff exposed in the interventional cardiology setting and their estimated associated health risks. The tool is available at http://intercardiorisk.creal.cat.

  4. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-18

    Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.

  5. Estimates of associated outdoor particulate matter health risk and costs reductions from alternative building, ventilation and filtration scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sultan, Zuraimi M

    2007-05-01

    Although many studies have reported calculations of outdoor particulate matter (PM) associated externalities using ambient data, there is little information on the role buildings, their ventilation and filtration play. This study provides the framework to evaluate the health risk and cost reduction of building, ventilation and filtration strategies from outdoor PM pollution on a nationwide level and applied it to a case study in Singapore. Combining Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) and time weighted exposure models, with established concentration-response functions and monetary valuation methods, mortality and morbidity effects of outdoor PM on the population of Singapore under different building, ventilation and filtration strategies were estimated. Different interventions were made to compare the effects from the current building conditions. The findings demonstrate that building protection effect reduced approximately half the attributable health cases amounting to US$17.7 billion due to PM pollution when compared to levels computed using outdoor data alone. For residential buildings, nationwide adoption of natural ventilation from current state is associated with 28% higher cases of mortality and 13 to 38% higher cases for different morbidities, amounting to US$6.7 billion. The incurred cost is negligible compared to energy costs of air-conditioning. However, nationwide adoption of closed residence and air-conditioning are associated with outcomes including fewer mortality (10 and 6% respectively), fewer morbidities (8 and 4% respectively) and economic savings of US$1.5 and 0.9 billion respectively. The related savings were about a factor of 9 the energy cost for air-conditioning. Nationwide adoption of mechanical ventilation and filtration from current natural ventilation in schools is associated with fewer asthma hospital admissions and exacerbations; although the economic impact is not substantial. Enhanced workplace filtration reduces the mortality and morbidity

  6. Estimating Terrorism Risk

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    preparedness by addressing unique planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas (DHS, 2004). Al- though there appears to be agreement ...reasonable minimum standards for community preparedness. Until these questions are answered, allocating home- land security resources based on risk is the...and threats are correlated with population density. There are practical benefits for using simple risk indicators such as those based upon population

  7. Estimating the effectiveness of health-risk communications with propensity-score matching: application to arsenic groundwater contamination in four US locations.

    PubMed

    Leidner, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household's decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research.

  8. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  9. Estimating the accumulation of chemicals in an estuarine food web: A case study for evaluation of future ecological and human health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Iannuzzi, T.J.; Finley, B.L.

    1995-12-31

    A model was constructed and calibrated for estimating the accumulation of sediment associated nonionic organic chemicals, including selected PCBs and PCDD/Fs, in a simplified food web of the tidal Passaic River, New Jersey. The model was used to estimate concentrations of several chemicals in infaunal invertebrates, forage fish, blue crab, and adult finfish in the River as part of a screening-level risk assessment that was conducted during the preliminary phase of a CERCLA Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS). Subsequent tissue-residue data were collected to evaluate the performance of the model, and to calibrate the model for multiple chemicals of concern in the River. A follow-up program of data collection was designed to support a more detailed risk assessment. The objectives of calibrating the model are to supplement the extant tissue-residue data that is available for risk assessment, and to evaluate future scenarios of bioaccumulation (and potential ecological and human health risk) under various future conditions in the River. Results to-date suggest that the model performs well for the simplified food web that exists in the Passaic River. A case study was constructed to demonstrate the application of the model for future predictions of ecological risk. These preliminary results suggest that the model is sufficiently sensitive and accurate for estimating variations of bioaccumulation under varying degrees of source control or other future conditions.

  10. Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenkate, Thomas D.

    1998-01-01

    Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…

  11. Health risks of energy systems.

    PubMed

    Krewitt, W; Hurley, F; Trukenmüller, A; Friedrich, R

    1998-08-01

    Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

  12. Estimating risks of perinatal death.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gordon C S

    2005-01-01

    The relative and absolute risks of perinatal death that are estimated from observational studies are used frequently in counseling about obstetric intervention. The statistical basis for these estimates therefore is crucial, but many studies are seriously flawed. In this review, a number of aspects of the approach to the estimation of the risk of perinatal death are addressed. Key factors in the analysis include (1) the definition of the cause of the death, (2) differentiation between antepartum and intrapartum events, (3) the use of the appropriate denominator for the given cause of death, (4) the assessment of the cumulative risk where appropriate, (5) the use of appropriate statistical tests, (6) the stratification of analysis of delivery-related deaths by gestational age, and (7) the specific features of multiple pregnancy, which include the correct determination of the timing of antepartum stillbirth and the use of paired statistical tests when outcomes are compared in relation to the birth order of twin pairs.

  13. The health risk of radon

    SciTech Connect

    Conrath, S.M.; Kolb, L.

    1995-10-01

    Although radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States, second only to cigarette smoking, many members of the public are not aware that radon is one of the most serious environmental cancer risks in the US. Based on extensive data from epidemiological studies of underground miners, radon has been classified as a known human carcinogen. In contrast to most pollutants, the assessment of human risk from radon is based on human occupational exposure data rather than animal data. That radon causes lung cancer has been well established by the scientific community. More is known about radon than most other cancer causing environmental carcinogens. While there are some uncertainties involved when estimating radon risk to the public, it is important to recognize that the risk information is based on human data and that the uncertainties have been addressed in the risk assessment. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that the number of annual US lung cancer deaths due to residential radon exposures is approximately 14,000 with an uncertainty range of 7,000 to 30,000. The abundant information on radon health risks that supports EPA`s risk assessment indicates that recommendations for public action by the federal government and other public health organizations constitute prudent public policy.

  14. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  15. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  16. Measurement and estimated health risks of volatile organic compounds and polychlorinated biphenyls in air at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Patton, G.W.; Cooper, A.T.; Blanton, M.L.

    1994-10-01

    A variety of radioactive and nonradioactive chemicals have been released in effluent streams and discharged to waste disposal facilities during the nuclear materials production period at the Hanford Site. Extensive environmental surveillance for radioactive materials has occurred at Hanford; however, only limited information is available on the types and concentrations of organic pollutants potentially present. This report describes work performed to provide the Hanford Site Surface Environmental Surveillance Project with representative air concentration data for volatile organic compounds and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) volatile organic compound sampling methods evaluated for Hanford Site use were carbon-based adsorbent traps (TO-2) and Summa air canisters (TO-14). Polychlorinated biphenyls were sampled using USEPA method (TO-4), which uses glass fiber filters and polyurethane foam adsorbent beds to collect the PCBs. This report also presents results for environmental surveillance samples collected for volatile organic compound and PCB analyses from 1990 to 1993. All measured air concentrations of volatile organic compounds and PCBs were well below applicable maximum allowable concentration standards for air contaminants. Because of the lack of ambient air concentration standards, a conservative estimate is provided of the potential human health impacts from exposure to the ambient air concentrations measured on the Hanford Site.

  17. Overeating: the health risks.

    PubMed

    Prentice, A M

    2001-11-01

    Overeating is a relative term. It refers to the consumption of an energy intake that is inappropriately large for a given energy expenditure, thus, leading to obesity. There are several key environmental and cultural factors that have converged in the past few decades to markedly increase the risk of both active and passive (inadvertent) overeating. Chief among these are the increased availability and promotion of cheap energy-dense diets (usually high in fat) and the transition toward extremely sedentary lifestyles. The importance of considering these factors together must be stressed. Data ranging from highly controlled metabolic studies to large-scale epidemiological and ecological analysis illustrate the strong interactions between diet and physical activity in relationship to the over-consumption of energy. Overeating of certain specific dietary components may also lead to health risks. Obvious examples are saturated and trans-fatty acids. More recently attention has switched to high glycemic foods and to n-6 fatty acids. Theories that excess consumption of these may be independent risk factors for obesity and ill health remain controversial but merit closer examination and additional research. The main barriers to changing widely prevalent overeating include the following: public and corporate ignorance about the effects of energy-dense diets in inducing passive over-consumption, commercial willfulness concerning energy density and portion sizes, and public ignorance about the profound health effects of inactive lifestyles. These represent key targets for the design of public health initiatives.

  18. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E; Dinu, Irina

    2015-08-14

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario-Tainted blood transfusion infection risk-That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.

  19. Characterising the individual health risk in infants exposed to organochlorine pesticides via breast milk by applying appropriate margins of safety derived from estimated daily intakes.

    PubMed

    Hernik, A; Góralczyk, K; Struciński, P; Czaja, K; Korcz, W; Minorczyk, M; Lyczewska, M; Ludwicki, J K

    2014-01-01

    Milk secretion being an important way of elimination of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) poses a concern due to potential risk for breastfed infants. This study aims to provide a tool for assessing such risks to infants exposed to OCPs (through accumulation in the mother's body), using calculated individual margins of safety (MoS). Selected OCPs included; p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, β-HCH, γ-HCH and HCB which were analysed in 28 samples of maternal milk. The highest intakes were recorded for p,p'-DDE (at 2.90 μg kg(-1)bw d(-1)) whilst the lowest was for γ-HCH, (at 0.019 μg kg(-1)bwd(-1)). For the risk characterisation purposes MoSs were calculated for the compounds for which toxicological reference values (e.g. ADI, TDI) were adopted. The MoS for average ∑DDT concentrations was found to be relatively low (2.82) somewhat similar to that for HCB at 7.08, and for γ-HCH, the MoS was substantially higher at 263.1. This, however does not take into account the extremely high individual concentrations. Thus, it was decided to calculate estimated daily intake (EDI) values based on OCP levels in individual milk samples. MoS levels of <1 (meaning unacceptable risk) were noted both for HCB in one sample as well as for ∑DDT in 3 samples indicating likely threats to infant's health. The lowest MoS noted for γ-HCH equalled to 60.6, indicating that this compound was not a threat to the health of any of the breastfed infants from the study group.

  20. Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

    PubMed Central

    Vatanpour, Shabnam; Hrudey, Steve E.; Dinu, Irina

    2015-01-01

    The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making. PMID:26287224

  1. Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health effects associated with O3 exposures as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with just meeting the current O3 NAAQS.

  2. Estimated inventory of radionuclides in Former Soviet Union Naval Reactors dumped in the Kara Sea and their associated health risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mount, M.E.; Layton, D.W.; Schwertz, N.L.; Anspaugh, L.R.; Robison, W.L.

    1993-05-01

    Radionuclide inventories have bin estimated for the reactor cores, reactor components, and primary system corrosion products in the former Soviet Union naval reactors dumped at the Abrosimov Inlet, Tsivolka Inlet, Stepovoy Inlet, Techeniye Inlet, and Novaya Zemlya Depression sites in the Kara Sea between 1965 and 1988. For the time of disposal, the inventories are estimated at 17 to 66 kCi of actinides plus daughters and 1695 to 4782 kCi of fission products in the reactor cores, 917 to 1127 kCi of activation products in the reactor components, and 1.4 to 1.6 kCi of activation products in the primary system corrosion products. At the present time, the inventories are estimated to have decreased to 6 to 24 kCi of actinides plus daughters and 492 to 540 kCi of fission products in the reactor cores, 124 to 126 kCi of activation products in the reactor components, and 0.16 to 0.17 kCi of activation products in the primary system corrosion products. All actinide activities are estimated to be within a factor of two.

  3. Improving Infant Exposure and Health Risk Estimates: Using Serum Data to Predict Polybrominated Diphenyl Ether Concentrations in Breast Milk

    EPA Science Inventory

    Women in the United States have breast milk concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) that are among the highest in the world, leading to concerns over the potential health implications to breastfeeding infants during critical stages of growth and development. Deve...

  4. Estimated Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Health Risks for the Citizens of Fukushima City, Tokyo, and Osaka after the 2011 Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

    2014-01-01

    The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (131I) and cesium 134 and 137 (134Cs and 137Cs) in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone), Tokyo (∼230 km), and Osaka (∼580 km) after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario). The estimated effective doses of 134Cs and 137Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of 131I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1) and 2700 µSv (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to 134Cs and 137Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2–3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 2.3–39×10−6 (Case 1) and 10–98×10−6 (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 0.95–14×10−6 in Tokyo, and 0.11–1.3×10−6 in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 7.5%–12% of all exposure (Case 1) and 12%–30% (Case 2) in Fukushima City. PMID:25390339

  5. Estimated dietary intake of radionuclides and health risks for the citizens of Fukushima City, Tokyo, and Osaka after the 2011 nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

    2014-01-01

    The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (131I) and cesium 134 and 137 (134Cs and 137Cs) in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone), Tokyo (∼230 km), and Osaka (∼580 km) after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario). The estimated effective doses of 134Cs and 137Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of 131I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1) and 2700 µSv (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to 134Cs and 137Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2-3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 1.7-37×10-6 (Case 1) and5.6-79×10-6 (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 0.73-13×10-6 in Tokyo, and 0.04-0.49×10- 6 in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 5.4%-11% of all exposure (Case 1) and 11%-25% (Case 2) in Fukushima City [corrected].

  6. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  7. Environmental Risk to Health of the Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anopchenko, Tatiana Y.; Murzin, Anton D.; Kandrashina, Elena A.; Kosyakova, Inessa V.; Surnina, Olga E.

    2016-01-01

    Researches of the last years in the field of ecological epidemiology and the analysis of risk for health allow to claim with confidence that the polluted environment is one of the important factors defining changes of a state of health of the population. Expert opinions on the scale of this influence differ considerably now. These estimations vary…

  8. Plastics and health risks.

    PubMed

    Halden, Rolf U

    2010-01-01

    By 2010, the worldwide annual production of plastics will surpass 300 million tons. Plastics are indispensable materials in modern society, and many products manufactured from plastics are a boon to public health (e.g., disposable syringes, intravenous bags). However, plastics also pose health risks. Of principal concern are endocrine-disrupting properties, as triggered for example by bisphenol A and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). Opinions on the safety of plastics vary widely, and despite more than five decades of research, scientific consensus on product safety is still elusive. This literature review summarizes information from more than 120 peer-reviewed publications on health effects of plastics and plasticizers in lab animals and humans. It examines problematic exposures of susceptible populations and also briefly summarizes adverse environmental impacts from plastic pollution. Ongoing efforts to steer human society toward resource conservation and sustainable consumption are discussed, including the concept of the 5 Rs--i.e., reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink, restrain--for minimizing pre- and postnatal exposures to potentially harmful components of plastics.

  9. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  10. Estimation of exposure to dietary acrylamide based on mercapturic acids level in urine of Polish women post partum and an assessment of health risk.

    PubMed

    Mojska, Hanna; Gielecińska, Iwona; Zielińska, Aleksandra; Winiarek, Joanna; Sawicki, Włodzimierz

    2016-01-01

    We determined metabolites of acrylamide and glycidamide concentrations (AAMA and GAMA, respectively) in urine of 93 women within the first days after delivery, using LC-MS/MS. The median AAMA and GAMA levels in urine were 20.9 μg/l (2.3÷399.0 μg/l) and 8.6 μg/l (1.3÷85.0 μg/l), respectively. In smokers we found significantly (P<0.01) higher levels of metabolites in comparison with the non-smoking women. As demonstrated by the 24-h dietary recall, acrylamide intake was low (median: 7.04 μg/day). Estimated exposure to acrylamide based on AAMA and GAMA levels in the whole group of women was 0.16 μg/kg b.w./day (1.15 μg/kg b.w./day, P95). We found significantly (P<0.05) higher exposure in women who consumed higher amount of acrylamide in the diet (≥10 μg/day vs <10 μg/day). A weak but significant positive correlation between acrylamide intake calculated on the basis of urinary levels of AAMA and GAMA and estimated on the basis of 24-h dietary recall (r=0.26, P<0.05) was found. The estimated margin of exposure values were below 10 000 and ranged from 156 for 95th percentile to 1938 for median acrylamide intake. Our results have shown that even a low dietary acrylamide intake may be associated with health risk.

  11. Auditory risk estimates for youth target shooting

    PubMed Central

    Meinke, Deanna K.; Murphy, William J.; Finan, Donald S.; Lankford, James E.; Flamme, Gregory A.; Stewart, Michael; Soendergaard, Jacob; Jerome, Trevor W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for youth recreational firearm users engaged in outdoor target shooting events. The youth shooting positions are typically standing or sitting at a table, which places the firearm closer to the ground or reflective surface when compared to adult shooters. Design Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Study sample Impulses were generated by 26 firearm/ammunition configurations representing rifles, shotguns, and pistols used by youth. Measurements were obtained relative to a youth shooter’s left ear. Results All firearms generated peak levels that exceeded the 120 dB peak limit suggested by the WHO for children. In general, shooting from the seated position over a tabletop increases the peak levels, LAeq8 and reduces the unprotected maximum permissible exposures (MPEs) for both rifles and pistols. Pistols pose the greatest auditory risk when fired over a tabletop. Conclusion Youth should utilize smaller caliber weapons, preferably from the standing position, and always wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities to reduce the risk for auditory damage. PMID:24564688

  12. Human health risks from metals and metalloid via consumption of food animals near gold mines in Tarkwa, Ghana: estimation of the daily intakes and target hazard quotients (THQs).

    PubMed

    Bortey-Sam, Nesta; Nakayama, Shouta M M; Ikenaka, Yoshinori; Akoto, Osei; Baidoo, Elvis; Yohannes, Yared Beyene; Mizukawa, Hazuki; Ishizuka, Mayumi

    2015-01-01

    Heavy metal and metalloid contamination in food resulting from mining is of major concern due to the potential risk involved. Food consumption is the most likely route of human exposure to metals. This study was therefore to assess metals in different organs and different animal species near gold mines used for human consumption (free-range chicken, goat and sheep) in Tarkwa, Ghana, and to estimate the daily intake and health risk. The concentrations of Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb were measured with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer and Hg analysis was done using the mercury analyzer. Principal component analysis of the results showed a clear separation between chicken, grouped on one side, and the ruminants clustered on another side in both offal and muscle. Interestingly, As, Cd, Hg, Mn and Pb made one cluster in the offal of chicken. Chicken muscle also showed similar distribution with As, Hg and Pb clustered together. The daily intake of metals (μg/kg body weight/day) were in the following ranges; As [0.002 (kidneys of goat and sheep)-0.19 (chicken gizzard)], Cd [0.003 (chicken muscle)-0.55 (chicken liver)], Hg [0.002 (goat muscle)-0.29 (chicken liver)], Pb [0.01 (muscles and kidneys of goat and sheep)-0.96 (chicken gizzard)] and Mn [0.13 (goat kidney)-8.92 (sheep liver)]. From the results, daily intakes of As, Cd, Hg, Pb and Mn in these food animals were low compared to the provisional tolerable daily intake guidelines. The THQs although less than one, indicated that contributions of chicken gizzard and liver to toxic metal exposure in adults and especially children could be significant.

  13. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, Janet M.; Springer, David L.

    1999-12-31

    Carbon tetrachloride has been used extensively within the DOE nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume consumer of CCl4 in the United States using 5000 gallons in 1977 alone (Ripple, 1992). At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl4 were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl4 in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford facility have exceeded 8 the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude (Illman, 1993). High levels of CCl4 at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl4 cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates, which assume that CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies was to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl4. Specific research objectives of this project were to: (1) compare the rates of CCl4 metabolism by rats, mice and hamsters in vivo and extrapolate those rates to man based on parallel studies on the metabolism of CCl4 by rat, mouse, hamster and human hepatic microsomes in vitro; (2) using hepatic microsome preparations, determine the role of specific cytochrome P450 isoforms in CCl4-mediated toxicity and the effects of repeated inhalation and ingestion of CCl4 on these isoforms; and (3) evaluate the toxicokinetics of inhaled CCl4 in rats, mice and hamsters. This information has been used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). Another major objective of the project was to provide scientific evidence that CCl4, like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing and regenerative proliferation. In

  14. Health Risks of Nuclear Power.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Bernard L.

    1978-01-01

    Deals with the wastes generated in nuclear power plants and the health risks involved as compared to those of wastes generated by coal-fired plants. Concludes that the risks of nuclear power plants are many times smaller than the risks from alternative energy resources. (GA)

  15. Children at health risks.

    PubMed

    Sekar, H R

    1992-01-01

    In India, 69% of the children of the working class die, most of whom are child laborers. Economic pressure forces parents to make their children work. Employers want child workers because they can manipulate them and pay them low wages, thereby ensuring their viability. The caste system induces social inequality, inheritance invokes cultural inequality, and patriarchal socialization is responsible for gender inequality, all of which perpetuates exploitation of children by employers. In Sivakasi, an estimated 125,000 children make up the child labor force, comprising 30% of the entire labor force. 75% are from the lowest castes. 90% of child workers are girls because they are more obedient and accept even lower wages than boys, and girls need to save for their dowry. Girls often suffer verbal and physical abuse. Like their parents who were also child workers, child workers are illiterate and work long hours. A small rich elite in Sivakasi controls most of the trading and industrial capital, educational institutions, and voluntary organizations. Employers' agents give parents a loan and use their children's labor as security. Each day, they bring child workers to Sivakasi in factory buses from villages to work at least 12 hour days. They work under hazardous conditions, e.g., working with toxic chemicals. Coughing, sore throat, dizziness, methemoglobinemia, and anemia are common effects of ingestion or inhalation of chlorate dust. Inhalation of sulphur dust causes respiratory infections, eye infections, and chronic lung diseases (e.g., asthma). Fires and explosions are common risks for working children. Factory management seldom undertake fire prevention measures. An extensive survey of the problem of child labor is needed in Sivakasi before systematic planning to protect children could be done. Overall development, especially agricultural development, is needed. Parents, employers, enforcement authorities, trade unions, and social groups need to be sensitized to the

  16. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    EPA Science Inventory

    BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

  17. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  18. Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mixtures is poorly characterized, exposure data are uncertain and toxicologic data on the known components of the mixture are limited. However, a potential human health hazard may exist and the U.S.EPA, state and local governments need to be able to assess the total hazard in order to make decisions on appropriate action. This report describes a procedure for assessing the risks from chemical mixtures that includes options when different kinds of data are available. Good-quality information on the mixture of concern or a similar mixture should always be used. Less desirable, but still useful approach, is to utilize data on components and their interactions. The quality of exposure and toxicity data must be determined and the uncertainties involved in each risk assessment must be thoroughly discussed. ater contamination is briefly discussed since it is of vital concern as the primary exposure medium for chemical mixtures. The methodology for estimating the human health risk from single chemicals, both carcinogens and systemic toxicants, is reviewed as it forms the basis for the assessment of mixtures. The Implementation of Superfund requires a methodology for estimating health risk from multi-chemical contamination at ambient levels. Most often, the chemical composition of these mix

  19. Health Security and Risk Aversion.

    PubMed

    Herington, Jonathan

    2016-09-01

    Health security has become a popular way of justifying efforts to control catastrophic threats to public health. Unfortunately, there has been little analysis of the concept of health security, nor the relationship between health security and other potential aims of public health policy. In this paper I develop an account of health security as an aversion to risky policy options. I explore three reasons for thinking risk avoidance is a distinctly worthwhile aim of public health policy: (i) that security is intrinsically valuable, (ii) that it is necessary for social planning and (iii) that it is an appropriate response to decision-making in contexts of very limited information. Striking the right balance between securing and maximizing population health thus requires a substantive, and hitherto unrecognized, value judgment. Finally, I critically evaluate the current health security agenda in light of this new account of the concept and its relationship to the other aims of public health policy.

  20. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  1. Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hu, Shaowen; Barzilla, Janet E.; Semones, Edward J.

    2015-01-01

    Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

  2. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  3. Discharge-based QMRA for estimation of public health risks from exposure to stormwater-borne pathogens in recreational waters in the United States.

    PubMed

    McBride, Graham B; Stott, Rebecca; Miller, Woutrina; Bambic, Dustin; Wuertz, Stefan

    2013-09-15

    This study is the first to report a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) on pathogens detected in stormwater discharges-of-concern, rather than relying on pathogen measurements in receiving waters. The pathogen concentrations include seven "Reference Pathogens" identified by the U.S. EPA: Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Salmonella, Norovirus, Rotavirus, Enterovirus, and Adenovirus. Data were collected from 12 sites representative of seven discharge types (including residential, commercial/industrial runoff, agricultural runoff, combined sewer overflows, and forested land), mainly during wet weather conditions during which times human health risks can be substantially elevated. The risks calculated herein therefore generally apply to short-term conditions (during and just after rainfall events) and so the results can be used by water managers to potentially inform the public, even for waters that comply with current criteria (based as they are on a 30-day mean risk). Using an example waterbody and mixed source, pathogen concentrations were used in QMRA models to generate risk profiles for primary and secondary water contact (or inhalation) by adults and children. A number of critical assumptions and considerations around the QMRA analysis are highlighted, particularly the harmonization of the pathogen concentrations measured in discharges during this project with those measured (using different methods) during the published dose-response clinical trials. Norovirus was the most dominant predicted health risk, though further research on its dose-response for illness (cf. infection) is needed. Even if the example mixed-source concentrations of pathogens had been reduced 30 times (by inactivation and mixing), the predicted swimming-associated illness rates - largely driven by Norovirus infections - can still be appreciable. Rotavirus generally induced the second-highest incidence of risk among the tested pathogens while risks for the other Reference Pathogens

  4. Day care health risks

    MedlinePlus

    ... This infection causes diarrhea, stomach cramps, and gas. Ear infections, colds, coughs, sore throats, and runny noses ... Head lice and scabies are other common health problems that occur in day care centers. You can ...

  5. Pregnancy - health risks

    MedlinePlus

    ... drugs, stop drinking alcohol, and limit caffeine and coffee. Talk to your health care provider about any medicines you may be taking to see if they can affect your unborn baby. Eat a well-balanced diet ...

  6. Estimating the spatial distribution of acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) and associated risk factors using emergency call data in India. A symptom-based approach for public health surveillance.

    PubMed

    Kauhl, Boris; Pilot, Eva; Rao, Ramana; Gruebner, Oliver; Schweikart, Jürgen; Krafft, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The System for Early-warning based on Emergency Data (SEED) is a pilot project to evaluate the use of emergency call data with the main complaint acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) for syndromic surveillance in India. While spatio-temporal methods provide signals to detect potential disease outbreaks, additional information about socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk is necessary for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies. The goal of this study is to investigate whether a spatial epidemiological analysis at the ecological level provides information on urban-rural inequalities, socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk for AUF. Our results displayed higher risks in rural areas with strong local variation. Household industries and proximity to forests were the main socio-ecological exposure factors and scheduled tribes were the main population at risk for AUF. These results provide additional information for syndromic surveillance and could be used for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies.

  7. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies. Revision 5/94

    SciTech Connect

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which man is routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies. This report is not a risk assessment; nor does it contain instructions on how to do a risk assessment. Rather, it provides background information on how most of us think about risks and why it is difficult to do it rationally, it provides a philosophy and data with which to do a better job of judging risks more rationally, and it provides an overview of where risks of energy technologies fit within the spectrum of all risks. Much of the quantitative information provided here is on relative risk of dying of various causes. This is not because risk of dying is seen as the most important kind of risk, but because the statistics on mortality rates by cause are the highest quality data available on health risks in the general population.

  8. The Problem With Estimating Public Health Spending.

    PubMed

    Leider, Jonathon P

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on how much the United States spends on public health is critical. These estimates affect planning efforts; reflect the value society places on the public health enterprise; and allows for the demonstration of cost-effectiveness of programs, policies, and services aimed at increasing population health. Yet, at present, there are a limited number of sources of systematic public health finance data. Each of these sources is collected in different ways, for different reasons, and so yields strikingly different results. This article aims to compare and contrast all 4 current national public health finance data sets, including data compiled by Trust for America's Health, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO), and the Census, which underlie the oft-cited National Health Expenditure Account estimates of public health activity. In FY2008, ASTHO estimates that state health agencies spent $24 billion ($94 per capita on average, median $79), while the Census estimated all state governmental agencies including state health agencies spent $60 billion on public health ($200 per capita on average, median $166). Census public health data suggest that local governments spent an average of $87 per capita (median $57), whereas NACCHO estimates that reporting LHDs spent $64 per capita on average (median $36) in FY2008. We conclude that these estimates differ because the various organizations collect data using different means, data definitions, and inclusion/exclusion criteria--most notably around whether to include spending by all agencies versus a state/local health department, and whether behavioral health, disability, and some clinical care spending are included in estimates. Alongside deeper analysis of presently underutilized Census administrative data, we see harmonization efforts and the creation of a standardized expenditure reporting system as a way to

  9. Submarine tower escape decompression sickness risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Loveman, G A M; Seddon, E M; Thacker, J C; Stansfield, M R; Jurd, K M

    2014-01-01

    Actions to enhance survival in a distressed submarine (DISSUB) scenario may be guided in part by knowledge of the likely risk of decompression sickness (DCS) should the crew attempt tower escape. A mathematical model for DCS risk estimation has been calibrated against DCS outcome data from 3,738 exposures of either men or goats to raised pressure. Body mass was used to scale DCS risk. The calibration data included more than 1,000 actual or simulated submarine escape exposures and no exposures with substantial staged decompression. Cases of pulmonary barotrauma were removed from the calibration data. The calibrated model was used to estimate the likelihood of DCS occurrence following submarine escape from the United Kingdom Royal Navy tower escape system. Where internal DISSUB pressure remains at - 0.1 MPa, escape from DISSUB depths < 200 meters is estimated to have DCS risk < 6%. Saturation at raised DISSUB pressure markedly increases risk, with > 60% DCS risk predicted for a 200-meter escape from saturation at 0.21 MPa. Using the calibrated model to predict DCS for direct ascent from saturation gives similar risk estimates to other published models.

  10. Geosciences help to protect human health: estimation of the adsorbed radiation doses while flight journeys, as important step to radiation risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernov, Anatolii; Shabatura, Olexandr

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of the adsorbed radiation dose while flight journeys is a complex problem, which should be solved to get correct evaluation of equivalent effective doses and radiation risk assessment. Direct measurements of the adsorbed dose in the aircrafts during regional flights (3-10 hours) has shown that the radiation in the plane may increase 10-15 times (to 2-4 mSv/h) compared to the values on the surface of the Earth (0.2-0.5 mSv/h). Results of instrumental research confirmed by the other investigations. It is a fact that adsorbed doses per year while flight journeys are less than doses from medical tests. However, while flight journeys passengers get the same doses as nuclear power plant staff, people in zones of natural radiation anomalies and so should be evaluated. According to the authors' research, flight journeys are safe enough, when solar activity is normal and if we fly under altitude of 18 km (as usual, while intercontinental flights). Most of people travel by plane not so often, but if flight is lasting in dangerous periods of solar activity (powerful solar winds and magnetic field storms), passengers and flight crew can adsorb great amount of radiation doses. People, who spend more than 500 hours in flight journeys (pilots, business oriented persons', government representatives, etc.) get amount of radiation, which can negatively influence on health and provoke diseases, such as cancer. Authors consider that problem actual and researches are still going on. It is revealed, that radiation can be calculated, using special equations. Great part of radiation depends on very variable outer-space component and less variable solar. Accurate calculations of doses will be possible, when we will take into account all features of radiation distribution (time, season of year and exact time of the day, duration of flight), technical features of aircraft and logistics of flight (altitude, latitude). Results of first attempts of radiation doses modelling confirmed

  11. Is risk attitude outcome specific within the health domain?

    PubMed

    van der Pol, Marjon; Ruggeri, Matteo

    2008-05-01

    The aim of this study is to examine whether individuals' risk attitude for life years differ from their risk attitude for quality of life. The study also investigates two different framing effects, an order and sequence effect, and the interaction between risk attitude and time preferences. The results showed that individuals tended to be risk averse with respect to the gamble involving risk of immediate death and risk seeking with respect to the other health gambles. Varying the order of the questions or the sequence of full health and ill-health did not seem to systematically bias the estimates.

  12. Biological risk and occupational health.

    PubMed

    Corrao, Carmela Romana Natalina; Mazzotta, Adele; La Torre, Giuseppe; De Giusti, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Many work activities include hazards to workers, and among these biological risk is particularly important, mostly because of different types of exposure, contact with highly dangerous agents, lack of limit values able to compare all exposures, presence of workers with defective immune systems and therefore more susceptible to the risk. Bioaerosols and dust are considered important vehicles of microganisms at workplaces and interaction with other occupational agents is assumed. Moreover, biological risk can be significant in countries with increasing economic development or particular habits and some biological agents are also classified as carcinogenic to human. Specific emerging biological risks have been recently pointed out by Risk Observatory of the European Agency for Safety and Health at work, and we must consider the worker's attitude and behaviour, influenced by his own perception of risk more than his real knowledge, that could over-underestimate the risk itself. Therefore, biological risk at work requires a complex approach in relation to risk assessment and risk management, made more difficult due to the wide variety of biological agents, working environments and working techniques that can determine the exposures.

  13. [Estimation of risk areas for hepatitis A].

    PubMed

    Braga, Ricardo Cerqueira Campos; Valencia, Luís Iván Ortiz; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Escosteguy, Claudia Caminha

    2008-08-01

    This study estimated hepatitis A risk areas in a region of Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. A cross-sectional study consisting of a hepatitis A serological survey and a household survey were conducted in 19 census tracts. Of these, 11 tracts were selected and 1,298 children from one to ten years of age were included in the study. Geostatistical techniques allowed modeling the spatial continuity of hepatitis A, non-use of filtered drinking water, time since installation of running water, and number of water taps per household and their spatial estimation through ordinary and indicator kriging. Adjusted models for the outcome and socioeconomic variables were isotropic; risk maps were constructed; cross-validation of the four models was satisfactory. Spatial estimation using the kriging method detected areas with increased risk of hepatitis A, independently of the urban administrative area in which the census tracts were located.

  14. Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Eide, Steven Arvid; Thomas Wierman

    2003-12-01

    The Environment, Safety and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) models human safety and health risk resulting from waste management and environmental restoration activities. Human safety and health risks include those associated with storing, handling, processing, transporting, and disposing of radionuclides and chemicals. Exposures to these materials, resulting from both accidents and normal, incident-free operation, are modeled. In addition, standard industrial risks (falls, explosions, transportation accidents, etc.) are evaluated. Finally, human safety and health impacts from cleanup of accidental releases of radionuclides and chemicals to the environment are estimated. Unlike environmental impact statements and safety analysis reports, ESHRAP risk predictions are meant to be best estimate, rather than bounding or conservatively high. Typically, ESHRAP studies involve risk predictions covering the entire waste management or environmental restoration program, including such activities as initial storage, handling, processing, interim storage, transportation, and final disposal. ESHRAP can be used to support complex environmental decision-making processes and to track risk reduction as activities progress.

  15. HEALTH RISK ISSUES FOR OXYGENATES

    EPA Science Inventory

    A substantial database exists on the inhalation toxicity of MTBE, but exposure information and health effects data for non-inhalation routes of exposure are limited. In addition, several issues complicate the interpretation of the avaialble data in assessing the healt risks of M...

  16. Health risks at the Hajj.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Qanta A; Arabi, Yaseen M; Memish, Ziad A

    2006-03-25

    Annually, millions of Muslims embark on a religious pilgrimage called the "Hajj" to Mecca in Saudi Arabia. The mass migration during the Hajj is unparalleled in scale, and pilgrims face numerous health hazards. The extreme congestion of people and vehicles during this time amplifies health risks, such as those from infectious diseases, that vary each year. Since the Hajj is dictated by the lunar calendar, which is shorter than the Gregorian calendar, it presents public-health policy planners with a moving target, demanding constant preparedness. We review the communicable and non-communicable hazards that pilgrims face. With the rise in global travel, preventing disease transmission has become paramount to avoid the spread of infectious diseases, including SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), avian influenza, and haemorrhagic fever. We examine the response of clinicians, the Saudi Ministry of Health, and Hajj authorities to these unique problems, and list health recommendations for prospective pilgrims.

  17. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  18. Spatial ascariasis risk estimation using socioeconomic variables.

    PubMed

    Valencia, Luis Iván Ortiz; Fortes, Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

    2005-12-01

    Frequently, disease incidence is mapped as area data, for example, census tracts, districts or states. Spatial disease incidence can be highly heterogeneous inside these areas. Ascariasis is a highly prevalent disease, which is associated with poor sanitation and hygiene. Geostatistics was applied to model spatial distribution of Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events in a poor community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data were gathered from a coproparasitologic and a domiciliary survey in 1550 children aged 1-9. Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events were spatially estimated using Indicator Kriging. Cokriging models with a Linear Model of Coregionalization incorporating one socioeconomic variable were implemented. If a housewife attended school for less than four years, the non-use of a home water filter, a household density greater than one, and a household income lower than one Brazilian minimum wage increased the risk of Ascariasis. Cokriging improved spatial estimation of Ascariasis risk areas when compared to Indicator Kriging and detected more Ascariasis very-high risk areas than the GIS Overlay method.

  19. Estimating health expenditure shares from household surveys

    PubMed Central

    Brooks, Benjamin PC; Hanlon, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective To quantify the effects of household expenditure survey characteristics on the estimated share of a household’s expenditure devoted to health. Methods A search was conducted for all country surveys reporting data on health expenditure and total household expenditure. Data on total expenditure and health expenditure were extracted from the surveys to generate the health expenditure share (i.e. fraction of the household expenditure devoted to health). To do this the authors relied on survey microdata or survey reports to calculate the health expenditure share for the particular instrument involved. Health expenditure share was modelled as a function of the survey’s recall period, the number of health expenditure items, the number of total expenditure items, the data collection method and the placement of the health module within the survey. Data exists across space and time, so fixed effects for territory and year were included as well. The model was estimated by means of ordinary least squares regression with clustered standard errors. Findings A one-unit increase in the number of health expenditure questions was accompanied by a 1% increase in the estimated health expenditure share. A one-unit increase in the number of non-health expenditure questions resulted in a 0.2% decrease in the estimated share. Increasing the recall period by one month was accompanied by a 6% decrease in the health expenditure share. Conclusion The characteristics of a survey instrument examined in the study affect the estimate of the health expenditure share. Those characteristics need to be accounted for when comparing results across surveys within a territory and, ultimately, across territories. PMID:23825879

  20. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated). The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk. PMID:22776564

  1. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    This report summarizes techniques that use possibility theory to estimate the risk of terrorist acts. These techniques were developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as part of the National Infrastructure Simulation Analysis Center (NISAC) project. The techniques have been used to estimate the risk of various terrorist scenarios to support NISAC analyses during 2004. The techniques are based on the Logic Evolved Decision (LED) methodology developed over the past few years by Terry Bott and Steve Eisenhawer at LANL. [LED] The LED methodology involves the use of fuzzy sets, possibility theory, and approximate reasoning. LED captures the uncertainty due to vagueness and imprecision that is inherent in the fidelity of the information available for terrorist acts; probability theory cannot capture these uncertainties. This report does not address the philosophy supporting the development of nonprobabilistic approaches, and it does not discuss possibility theory in detail. The references provide a detailed discussion of these subjects. [Shafer] [Klir and Yuan] [Dubois and Prade] Suffice to say that these approaches were developed to address types of uncertainty that cannot be addressed by a probability measure. An earlier report discussed in detail the problems with using a probability measure to evaluate terrorist risk. [Darby Methodology]. Two related techniques are discussed in this report: (1) a numerical technique, and (2) a linguistic technique. The numerical technique uses traditional possibility theory applied to crisp sets, while the linguistic technique applies possibility theory to fuzzy sets. Both of these techniques as applied to terrorist risk for NISAC applications are implemented in software called PossibleRisk. The techniques implemented in PossibleRisk were developed specifically for use in estimating terrorist risk for the NISAC program. The LEDTools code can be used to perform the same linguistic evaluation as

  2. Almost efficient estimation of relative risk regression

    PubMed Central

    Fitzmaurice, Garrett M.; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Arriaga, Alex; Sinha, Debajyoti; Greenberg, Caprice; Gawande, Atul A.

    2014-01-01

    Relative risks (RRs) are often considered the preferred measures of association in prospective studies, especially when the binary outcome of interest is common. In particular, many researchers regard RRs to be more intuitively interpretable than odds ratios. Although RR regression is a special case of generalized linear models, specifically with a log link function for the binomial (or Bernoulli) outcome, the resulting log-binomial regression does not respect the natural parameter constraints. Because log-binomial regression does not ensure that predicted probabilities are mapped to the [0,1] range, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is often subject to numerical instability that leads to convergence problems. To circumvent these problems, a number of alternative approaches for estimating RR regression parameters have been proposed. One approach that has been widely studied is the use of Poisson regression estimating equations. The estimating equations for Poisson regression yield consistent, albeit inefficient, estimators of the RR regression parameters. We consider the relative efficiency of the Poisson regression estimator and develop an alternative, almost efficient estimator for the RR regression parameters. The proposed method uses near-optimal weights based on a Maclaurin series (Taylor series expanded around zero) approximation to the true Bernoulli or binomial weight function. This yields an almost efficient estimator while avoiding convergence problems. We examine the asymptotic relative efficiency of the proposed estimator for an increase in the number of terms in the series. Using simulations, we demonstrate the potential for convergence problems with standard ML estimation of the log-binomial regression model and illustrate how this is overcome using the proposed estimator. We apply the proposed estimator to a study of predictors of pre-operative use of beta blockers among patients undergoing colorectal surgery after diagnosis of colon cancer. PMID

  3. Estimating and Mapping the Population at Risk of Sleeping Sickness

    PubMed Central

    Franco, José R.; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M.; Mattioli, Raffaele C.; Jannin, Jean G.

    2012-01-01

    Background Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from “very high” to “very low,” and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Results Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Discussion Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness. PMID:23145192

  4. Potential human health risks from toxic metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, and organochlorine pesticides via canned fish consumption: estimation of target hazard quotients.

    PubMed

    El Morsy, Fadia A M; El-Sadaawy, Manal M; Ahdy, Hoda H H; Abdel-Fattah, Laila M; El-Sikaily, Amany M; Khaled, Azza; Tayel, Fathi M T

    2013-01-01

    Canned fish (tuna and sardine) of different geographical regions were collected randomly from supermarkets and were analyzed for heavy metal contents (Hg, Cd and Pb) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, and pesticides. Canned fish samples (two brands of sardines, six brands of tuna) that were purchased from Egyptian cities between 2009 and 2010, represent four countries (Morocco, Republic of Yemen, Indonesia and Thailand). Health risks on humans via dietary intake of seafood were assessed by the target hazard quotients (THQs), potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects. The contents of trace metals in canned tuna and canned sardines were found as: 0.149-0.218 μg/g for Cd; 0.312-0.937 μg/g for Pb and 0.053-0.022 μg/g for Hg. Canned sardines fluctuated between 0.55 and 1.82, 1.08 and 1.64, 11.91 and 26.24 ng/g for total HCHs, Total cyclodienes and DDTs respectively while the corresponding concentrations in canned tuna were 0.24-1.85, 0.24-1‥85 and 6.56-49.73 ng/g, respectively. Total PCBs fluctuated between 21.75 and 55.10 for canned sardines and 8.56-208.11 ng/g for canned tuna. On the other hand the total PAHs fluctuated between 0.006-9.775 and 1.556-2.686 ng/g for tuna and sardines. From the human health point of view, there is no adverse health effect for both PAHs and heavy metals content on consumers.

  5. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  6. Estimated Autism Risk and Older Reproductive Age

    PubMed Central

    King, Marissa D.; Fountain, Christine; Dakhlallah, Diana

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk for autism associated with maternal and paternal age across successive birth cohorts. Methods. We linked birth records and autism diagnostic records from the California Department of Developmental Services for children born in California between 1992 and 2000 to calculate the risk associated with maternal and paternal age for each birth cohort as well as for the pooled data. Results. The categorical risks associated with maternal age over 40 years ranged from a high of 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.47) to a low of 1.27 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.69). The risk associated with paternal age ranged from 1.29 (95% CI = 1.03, 1.6) to 1.71 (95% CI = 1.41, 2.08). Conclusions. Pooling data across multiple birth cohorts inflates the risk associated with paternal age. Analyses that do not suffer from problems produced by pooling across birth cohorts demonstrated that advanced maternal age, rather than paternal age, may pose greater risk. Future research examining parental age as a risk factor must be careful to avoid the paradoxes that can arise from pooling data, particularly during periods of social demographic change. PMID:19608957

  7. Estimation of thyroid doses and health risks resulting from the intake of radioactive iodine in foods and drinking water by the citizens of Tokyo after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

    2012-06-01

    The release of radioactive materials from the Fukushima nuclear power plant after the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 poses health risks. In this study, the intake of iodine 131 (I-131) in drinking water and foods (milk, dairy products, and vegetables) by citizens of Tokyo was estimated. The effects of countermeasures (restrictions on the distribution of foods and the distribution of bottled water for infants) on reducing intake were also evaluated. The average thyroid equivalent doses without countermeasures from 21 March 2011 were 0.42 mSv in adults, 1.49 mSv in children, and 2.08 mSv in infants. Those with countermeasures were 0.28, 0.97, and 1.14 mSv respectively, reductions of 33%, 35%, and 45%. Drinking water contributed more to intake by adults and children than foods. The intake of I-131 within the first 2 weeks was more than 80% of the estimated intake, owing to its short half-life, indicating that rapid countermeasures are important in reducing intake. The average risks of cancer incidence and mortality due to I-131 for infants were estimated to be 3×10(-5) and 0.2×10(-5), respectively, lower than the annual risks of traffic accidents, naturally occurring radioactive material (potassium 40), and environmental pollutants such as diesel exhaust particles.

  8. Estimated Levels of Environmental Contamination and Health Risk Assessment for Herbicides and Insecticides in Surface Water of Ceará, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Sousa, Anayla S; Duaví, Wersângela C; Cavalcante, Rivelino M; Milhome, Maria Aparecida L; do Nascimento, Ronaldo F

    2016-01-01

    Methodology using solid phase extraction and high performance liquid chromatography (SPE-C18/HPLC-DAD) was applied to pesticide determinations in ten water reservoirs in the semidarid region of northeastern Brazil. The validated method was suitable for determination of herbicides and insecticide in surface water. The recovery efficiency of atrazine, methyl-parathion and simazine was approximately 70%. The method also showed good linearity and selectivity with correlation coefficients (R) greater than 0.99. The limits of detection were below the maximum residue limits (MRLs) established by government agencies. Studied reservoirs showed presence of atrazine at mean levels from 7.0 to 15.0 µg/L. Simazine and methyl parathion were not detected during the period. The atrazine levels measured from this semiarid region are of the same magnitude as those found in regions with moderate to high agricultural activity. According to detected atrazine concentrations, the annual health risk to humans was insignificant. However, the control of herbicides is important to maintain the quality of water in the reservoirs of Ceará, Brazil.

  9. [Health risks of oral contraceptives].

    PubMed

    Meier, Christoph R

    2011-06-01

    smoking is also an important contributing factor to an increased VTE risk for women using OC. It is important that doctors and pharmacists inform new users of OC about potential health risks of OC use, and that the personal and family history of previous health risks is assessed thoroughly in order to rule out that important and relevant contraindications are present when a women starts taking OC.

  10. Clean Slate transportation and human health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1997-02-01

    Public concern regarding activities involving radioactive material generally focuses on the human health risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. This report describes the results of a risk analysis conducted to evaluate risk for excavation, handling, and transport of soil contaminated with transuranics at the Clean Slate sites. Transportation risks were estimated for public transport routes from the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to the Envirocore disposal facility or to the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for both radiological risk and risk due to traffic accidents. Human health risks were evaluated for occupational and radiation-related health effects to workers. This report was generated to respond to this public concern, to provide an evaluation of the risk, and to assess feasibility of transport of the contaminated soil for disposal.

  11. Estimates of endemic waterborne risks from community-intervention studies.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Rebecca L; Craun, Gunther F

    2006-01-01

    The nature and magnitude of endemic waterborne disease are not well characterized in the United States. Epidemiologic studies of various designs can provide an estimate of the waterborne attributable risk along with other types of information. Community drinking water systems frequently improve their operations and may change drinking water treatment and their major source of water. In the United States, many of these treatment changes are the result of regulations promulgated under the Safe Drinking Water Act. A community-intervention study design takes advantage of these "natural" experiments to assess changes in health risks. In this paper, we review the community-intervention studies that have assessed changes in waterborne gastroenteritis risks among immunocompetent populations in industrialized countries. Published results are available from two studies in Australia, one study in the United Kingdom, and one study in the United States. Preliminary results from two other US studies are also available. Although the current information is limited, the risks reported in these community-intervention studies can help inform the national estimate of endemic waterborne gastroenteritis. Information is provided about endemic waterborne risks for unfiltered surface water sources and a groundwater under the influence of surface water. Community-intervention studies with recommended study modifications should be conducted to better estimate the benefits associated with improved drinking water treatment.

  12. The quantitative estimation of IT-related risk probabilities.

    PubMed

    Herrmann, Andrea

    2013-08-01

    How well can people estimate IT-related risk? Although estimating risk is a fundamental activity in software management and risk is the basis for many decisions, little is known about how well IT-related risk can be estimated at all. Therefore, we executed a risk estimation experiment with 36 participants. They estimated the probabilities of IT-related risks and we investigated the effect of the following factors on the quality of the risk estimation: the estimator's age, work experience in computing, (self-reported) safety awareness and previous experience with this risk, the absolute value of the risk's probability, and the effect of knowing the estimates of the other participants (see: Delphi method). Our main findings are: risk probabilities are difficult to estimate. Younger and inexperienced estimators were not significantly worse than older and more experienced estimators, but the older and more experienced subjects better used the knowledge gained by knowing the other estimators' results. Persons with higher safety awareness tend to overestimate risk probabilities, but can better estimate ordinal ranks of risk probabilities. Previous own experience with a risk leads to an overestimation of its probability (unlike in other fields like medicine or disasters, where experience with a disease leads to more realistic probability estimates and nonexperience to an underestimation).

  13. A toolbox for health risk related decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Easterly, C.E.; Jones, T.D.

    1996-10-01

    Development efforts since the late 1970s have resulted in a generalized method for ranking health hazards. This method provides the basis for a wide range of applications where decisions are needed for allocating resources on the basis of health risk considerations. It has been used for more than a decade to solve real problems, and it is supported by 23 publications in the open literature. The diversity of this generalized methodology allows us to provide support in a great number of problem areas. we give four examples in this manuscript: the relative toxicities of petroleum mixtures; a method to derive Emergency Response Planning Guides; an estimate of the possible carcinogenic potency of tungsten, an alternative material to depleted uranium for heavy armor penetrators; and an approach to low dose extrapolation. Our experience suggests that many more applications of the original concept and variations on it can be of utility in military situations. Some potentially fruitful areas may be in the: development of a health-risk-ranking system for alternative solutions to manufacturing, waste management, and remediation; provision of a basis for identifying levels of hazardous agents which are below health concerns, or which should be of concern; development of a framework for evaluating chemicals and radioactive materials on the same basis, and in the development of a battery of in vitro bioassays which could take the place of long-term whole animal tests.

  14. Incorporating Human Interindividual Biotransformation Variance in Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The protection of sensitive individuals within a population dictates that measures other than central tendencies be employed to estimate risk. The refinement of human health risk assessments for chemicals metabolized by the liver to reflect data on human variability can be accom...

  15. INCORPORATING HUMAN INTERINDIVIDUAL BIOTRANSFORMATION VARIANCE IN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The protection of sensitive individuals within a population dictates that measures other than central tendencies be employed to estimate risk. The refinement of human health risk assessments for chemicals metabolized by the liver to reflect data on human variability can be accom...

  16. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    A number of considerations must go into the process of determining the risk of deleterious effects of space radiation to travelers. Among them are (1) determination of the components of the radiation environment (particle species, fluxes and energy spectra) which will encounter, (2) determination of the effects of shielding provided by the spacecraft and the bodies of the travelers which modify the incident particle spectra and mix of particles, and (3) determination of relevant biological effects of the radiation in the organs of interest. The latter can then lead to an estimation of risk from a given space scenario. Clearly, the process spans many scientific disciplines from solar and cosmic ray physics to radiation transport theeory to the multistage problem of the induction by radiation of initial lesions in living material and their evolution via physical, chemical, and biological processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels to produce the end point of importance.

  17. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  18. Assessing uncertainty in published risk estimates using ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Introduction: The National Research Council recommended quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in effect estimates for risk assessment. This analysis considers uncertainty across model forms and model parameterizations with hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] and lung cancer mortality as an example. The objective is to characterize model uncertainty by evaluating estimates across published epidemiologic studies of the same cohort.Methods: This analysis was based on 5 studies analyzing a cohort of 2,357 workers employed from 1950-74 in a chromate production plant in Maryland. Cox and Poisson models were the only model forms considered by study authors to assess the effect of Cr(VI) on lung cancer mortality. All models adjusted for smoking and included a 5-year exposure lag, however other latency periods and model covariates such as age and race were considered. Published effect estimates were standardized to the same units and normalized by their variances to produce a standardized metric to compare variability within and between model forms. A total of 5 similarly parameterized analyses were considered across model form, and 16 analyses with alternative parameterizations were considered within model form (10 Cox; 6 Poisson). Results: Across Cox and Poisson model forms, adjusted cumulative exposure coefficients (betas) for 5 similar analyses ranged from 2.47 to 4.33 (mean=2.97, σ2=0.63). Within the 10 Cox models, coefficients ranged from 2.53 to 4.42 (mean=3.29, σ2=0.

  19. A simulation study to determine the attenuation and bias in health risk estimates due to exposure measurement error in bi-pollutant models

    EPA Science Inventory

    To understand the combined health effects of exposure to ambient air pollutant mixtures, it is becoming more common to include multiple pollutants in epidemiologic models. However, the complex spatial and temporal pattern of ambient pollutant concentrations and related exposures ...

  20. Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health Effects from Lead During Renovation, Repair, and Painting Activities in Public and Commercial Buildings” (Technical Approach Document). Also available for public review and comment are two supplementary documents: the detailed appendices for the Technical Approach Document and a supplementary report entitled “Developing a Concentration-Response Function for Pb Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality.” Together, these documents describes an analysis for estimating exposures and incremental health effects created by renovations of public and commercial buildings (P&CBs). This analysis could be used to identify and evaluate hazards from renovation, repair, and painting activities in P&CBs. A general overview of how this analysis can be used to inform EPA’s hazard finding is described in the Framework document that was previously made available for public comment (79 FR 31072; FRL9910-44). The analysis can be used in any proposed rulemaking to estimate the reduction in deleterious health effects that would result from any proposed regulatory requirements to mitigate exposure from P&CB renovation activities. The Technical Approach Document describes in detail how the analyses under this approach have been performed and presents the results – expected changes in blood lead levels and health effects due to lead exposure from renovation activities.

  1. Health risk of chrysotile revisited

    PubMed Central

    Dunnigan, Jacques; Hesterberg, Thomas; Brown, Robert; Velasco, Juan Antonio Legaspi; Barrera, Raúl; Hoskins, John; Gibbs, Allen

    2013-01-01

    This review provides a basis for substantiating both kinetically and pathologically the differences between chrysotile and amphibole asbestos. Chrysotile, which is rapidly attacked by the acid environment of the macrophage, falls apart in the lung into short fibers and particles, while the amphibole asbestos persist creating a response to the fibrous structure of this mineral. Inhalation toxicity studies of chrysotile at non-lung overload conditions demonstrate that the long (>20 µm) fibers are rapidly cleared from the lung, are not translocated to the pleural cavity and do not initiate fibrogenic response. In contrast, long amphibole asbestos fibers persist, are quickly (within 7 d) translocated to the pleural cavity and result in interstitial fibrosis and pleural inflammation. Quantitative reviews of epidemiological studies of mineral fibers have determined the potency of chrysotile and amphibole asbestos for causing lung cancer and mesothelioma in relation to fiber type and have also differentiated between these two minerals. These studies have been reviewed in light of the frequent use of amphibole asbestos. As with other respirable particulates, there is evidence that heavy and prolonged exposure to chrysotile can produce lung cancer. The importance of the present and other similar reviews is that the studies they report show that low exposures to chrysotile do not present a detectable risk to health. Since total dose over time decides the likelihood of disease occurrence and progression, they also suggest that the risk of an adverse outcome may be low with even high exposures experienced over a short duration. PMID:23346982

  2. Health risk of chrysotile revisited.

    PubMed

    Bernstein, David; Dunnigan, Jacques; Hesterberg, Thomas; Brown, Robert; Velasco, Juan Antonio Legaspi; Barrera, Raúl; Hoskins, John; Gibbs, Allen

    2013-02-01

    This review provides a basis for substantiating both kinetically and pathologically the differences between chrysotile and amphibole asbestos. Chrysotile, which is rapidly attacked by the acid environment of the macrophage, falls apart in the lung into short fibers and particles, while the amphibole asbestos persist creating a response to the fibrous structure of this mineral. Inhalation toxicity studies of chrysotile at non-lung overload conditions demonstrate that the long (>20 µm) fibers are rapidly cleared from the lung, are not translocated to the pleural cavity and do not initiate fibrogenic response. In contrast, long amphibole asbestos fibers persist, are quickly (within 7 d) translocated to the pleural cavity and result in interstitial fibrosis and pleural inflammation. Quantitative reviews of epidemiological studies of mineral fibers have determined the potency of chrysotile and amphibole asbestos for causing lung cancer and mesothelioma in relation to fiber type and have also differentiated between these two minerals. These studies have been reviewed in light of the frequent use of amphibole asbestos. As with other respirable particulates, there is evidence that heavy and prolonged exposure to chrysotile can produce lung cancer. The importance of the present and other similar reviews is that the studies they report show that low exposures to chrysotile do not present a detectable risk to health. Since total dose over time decides the likelihood of disease occurrence and progression, they also suggest that the risk of an adverse outcome may be low with even high exposures experienced over a short duration.

  3. [Psychosocial risks at work and occupational health].

    PubMed

    Gil-Monte, Pedro R

    2012-06-01

    The changes on work processes and job design in recent decades are focused in the demographic, economic, political, and technological aspects. These changes have created new psychosocial risks at work that affect the health and quality of workplace, increasing stress levels among workers. The aim of this study is to present such risks, their consequences, and some recommendations to promote health at the workplace as a strategy to improve public health of the population. The study is divided into five points in which: (1) introduces the concept of risk factors and psychosocial work, (2) describes the main emerging psychosocial risks labor, (3) provides some information on the prevalence of psychosocial risks at work in Europe and its consequences, (4) recommendations for health promotion in the workplace, and (5) describes the objective of Occupational Health Psychology and concludes with the recommendations to promote psychosocial health in the workplace as a strategy to improve public health of the population.

  4. Health Risk Appraisal Use at Headquarters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borcherding, Donald

    1997-01-01

    Specific topics which relate to the NASA Health Risk Appraisal (HRA) include: (1) What is a HRA?; (2) Risk factors; (3) Program use at NASA Headquarters; (4) An alternative approach; (5) Group HRA reports; and (6) Future considerations and conclusion.

  5. Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

  6. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    PubMed

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision

  7. Risk behaviours and self rated health in Russia 1998

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, P

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—As self rated health and mortality represent different dimensions of public health and as risk behaviours have been closely related to mortality, we wanted to examine whether (poor) self rated health on the one hand and risk behaviours on the other can be attributed to different causes.
METHODS—The Taganrog household survey (1998) was conducted in the form of face to face interviews and included 1009 people and their families. To estimate health differences and differences in risk behaviours between groups, logistic regressions were performed.
RESULTS—In Taganrog between 1993/94 and 1998, changes in self rated health seem to have been much more dramatic than changes in smoking and different in direction from changes in heavy alcohol consumption. Moreover, self rated "poor" health was especially common among those whose economic situation was worse in 1998 than 10 years before. However, having a poorer economy during the period 1988-1998, does not seem to have affected drinking or smoking habits significantly.
CONCLUSIONS—Self rated health seems to be closely related to three indicators of economic circumstances. Risk behaviours are probably important for the poor state of public health in Russia, but may be less sensitive to the economic aspects of the transition than is self rated health.


Keywords: self rated health; risk behaviours PMID:11604437

  8. Assessment of possible impact of a health promotion program in Korea from health risk trends in a longitudinally observed cohort

    PubMed Central

    Park, J; Jee, SH; Edington, DW

    2004-01-01

    Background Longitudinally observed cohort data can be utilized to assess the potential for health promotion and healthcare planning by comparing the estimated risk factor trends of non-intervened with that of intervened. The paper seeks (1) to estimate a natural transition (patterns of movement between states) of health risk state from a Korean cohort data using a Markov model, (2) to derive an effective and necessary health promotion strategy for the population, and (3) to project a possible impact of an intervention program on health status. Methods The observed transition of health risk states in a Korean employee cohort was utilized to estimate the natural flow of aggregated health risk states from eight health risk measures using Markov chain models. In addition, a reinforced transition was simulated, given that a health promotion program was implemented for the cohort, to project a possible impact on improvement of health status. An intervened risk transition was obtained based on age, gender, and baseline risk state, adjusted to match with the Korean cohort, from a simulated random sample of a US employee population, where a health intervention was in place. Results The estimated natural flow (non-intervened), following Markov chain order 2, showed a decrease in low risk state by 3.1 percentage points in the Korean population while the simulated reinforced transition (intervened) projected an increase in low risk state by 7.5 percentage points. Estimated transitions of risk states demonstrated the necessity of not only the risk reduction but also low risk maintenance. Conclusions The frame work of Markov chain efficiently estimated the trend, and captured the tendency in the natural flow. Given only a minimally intense health promotion program, potential risk reduction and low risk maintenance was projected. PMID:15538950

  9. The impact of the Citibank, NA, health management program on changes in employee health risks over time.

    PubMed

    Ozminkowski, R J; Goetzel, R Z; Smith, M W; Cantor, R I; Shaughnessy, A; Harrison, M

    2000-05-01

    This study estimated the impact of the Citibank Health Management Program on changes in health risks among Citibank employees. McNemar chi-squared tests compared the probability of being at high risk for poor health when the first and last health-risk appraisal surveys were taken. Logistic regression controlled for baseline differences in subsequent analyses when those who participated in more intensive program features were compared with those who participated in less intensive features. Declines in risk were noted for 8 of 10 risk categories. Most changes were small, except those related to exercise habits, seatbelt use, and stress levels. For nine health risk categories, those who participated in more intensive program services were significantly more likely than others to reduce their health risks. Thus, the Citibank Health Management Program was associated with significant reductions in health risk.

  10. Addressing Risks to Advance Mental Health Research

    PubMed Central

    Iltis, Ana S.; Misra, Sahana; Dunn, Laura B.; Brown, Gregory K.; Campbell, Amy; Earll, Sarah A.; Glowinski, Anne; Hadley, Whitney B.; Pies, Ronald; DuBois, James M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Risk communication and management are essential to the ethical conduct of research, yet addressing risks may be time consuming for investigators and institutional review boards (IRBs) may reject study designs that appear too risky. This can discourage needed research, particularly in higher risk protocols or those enrolling potentially vulnerable individuals, such as those with some level of suicidality. Improved mechanisms for addressing research risks may facilitate much needed psychiatric research. This article provides mental health researchers with practical approaches to: 1) identify and define various intrinsic research risks; 2) communicate these risks to others (e.g., potential participants, regulatory bodies, society); 3) manage these risks during the course of a study; and 4) justify the risks. Methods As part of a National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH)-funded scientific meeting series, a public conference and a closed-session expert panel meeting were held on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. The expert panel reviewed the literature with a focus on empirical studies and developed recommendations for best practices and further research on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. IRB review was not required because there were no human subjects. The NIMH played no role in developing or reviewing the manuscript. Results Challenges, current data, practical strategies, and topics for future research are addressed for each of four key areas pertaining to management and disclosure of risks in clinical trials: identifying and defining risks, communicating risks, managing risks during studies, and justifying research risks. Conclusions Empirical data on risk communication, managing risks, and the benefits of research can support the ethical conduct of mental health research and may help investigators better conceptualize and confront risks and to gain IRB approval. PMID:24173618

  11. [Aflatoxins--health risk factors].

    PubMed

    Miliţă, Nicoleta Manuela; Mihăescu, Gr; Chifiriuc, Carmen

    2010-01-01

    Aflatoxins are secondary metabolites produced by a group of strains, mainly Aspergillus and Penicillium species. These mycotoxins are bifurano-coumarin derivatives group with four major products B1, B2, G1 and G2 according to blue or green fluorescence emitted in ultraviolet light and according to chromatographic separation. After metabolism of aflatoxin B1 and B2 in the mammalian body, result two metabolites M1 and M2 as hydroxylated derivatives of the parent compound. Aflatoxins have high carcinogenic potential, the most powerful carcinogens in different species of animals and humans. International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified aflatoxin B1 in Group I carcinogens. The target organ for aflatoxins is the liver. In chronic poisoning, aflatoxin is a risk to health, for a long term causing cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma), and in acute intoxications aflatoxin is lethal. This work purpose to discuss aflatoxins issue: the synthesis, absorption and elimination of aflatoxins, the toxicity mechanisms, and measures to limit the content of aflatoxins in food

  12. Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Kerry A.; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2011-01-01

    To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space

  13. New Mexico Adolescent Health Risks Survey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Antle, David

    To inform students of health risks (posed by behavior, environment, and genetics) and provide schools with collective risk appraisal information as a basis for planning/evaluating health and wellness initiatives, New Mexico administered the Teen Wellness Check in 1985 to 1,573 ninth-grade students from 7 New Mexico public schools. Subjects were…

  14. The Health Risks of Weight Loss.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Frances M.

    This report compiles scientific evidence and statistics on the health risks of weight loss interventions and is intended to help both professionals and consumers cope in healthful ways with the complex dilemmas of weight. The publication is organized into six chapters: (1) "Risks of Losing Weight"; (2) "Effectiveness of…

  15. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  16. Uncertainty of Calculated Risk Estimates for Secondary Malignancies After Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kry, Stephen F. . E-mail: sfkry@mdanderson.org; Followill, David; White, R. Allen; Stovall, Marilyn; Kuban, Deborah A.; Salehpour, Mohammad

    2007-07-15

    Purpose: The significance of risk estimates for fatal secondary malignancies caused by out-of-field radiation exposure remains unresolved because the uncertainty in calculated risk estimates has not been established. This work examines the uncertainty in absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of risk estimates between different treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Clinically reasonable out-of-field doses and calculated risk estimates were taken from the literature for several prostate treatment modalities, including intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), and were recalculated using the most recent risk model. The uncertainties in this risk model and uncertainties in the linearity of the dose-response model were considered in generating 90% confidence intervals for the uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of the risk estimates. Results: The absolute risk estimates of fatal secondary malignancy were associated with very large uncertainties, which precluded distinctions between the risks associated with the different treatment modalities considered. However, a much smaller confidence interval exists for the ratio of risk estimates, and this ratio between different treatment modalities may be statistically significant when there is an effective dose equivalent difference of at least 50%. Such a difference may exist between clinically reasonable treatment options, including 6-MV IMRT versus 18-MV IMRT for prostate therapy. Conclusion: The ratio of the risk between different treatment modalities may be significantly different. Consequently risk models and associated risk estimates may be useful and meaningful for evaluating different treatment options. The calculated risk of secondary malignancy should be considered in the selection of an optimal treatment plan.

  17. Risk communication for public health emergencies.

    PubMed

    Glik, Deborah C

    2007-01-01

    This review defines crisis risk communication, traces its origins to a number of applied fields, and then shows how basic principles have become incorporated into emergency preparedness and risk communication for public health. Literature from four different disciplines that inform crisis risk communications are reviewed. These are (a) environmental risk communication, (b) disaster management, (c) health promotion and communication, and (d) media and communication studies. Current curricula and training materials are briefly reviewed. Although this literature review suggests much progress has been made to incorporate and disseminate crisis risk communication principles into public health practice, and case studies suggest that public health workers have gained skills and experience, this emerging field still lacks in-depth evaluation of the effectiveness of event-specific crisis risk communication efforts.

  18. Health expenditure estimation and functional form: applications of the generalized gamma and extended estimating equations models.

    PubMed

    Hill, Steven C; Miller, G Edward

    2010-05-01

    Health-care expenditure regressions are used in a wide variety of economic analyses including risk adjustment and program and treatment evaluations. Recent articles demonstrated that generalized gamma models (GGMs) and extended estimating equations (EEE) models provide flexible approaches to deal with a variety of data problems encountered in expenditure estimation. To date there have been few empirical applications of these models to expenditures. We use data from the US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to compare the bias, predictive accuracy, and marginal effects of GGM and EEE models with other commonly used regression models in a cross-validation study design. Health-care expenditure distributions vary in the degree of heteroskedasticity, skewness, and kurtosis by type of service and population. To examine the ability of estimators to address a range of data problems, we estimate models of total health expenditures and prescription drug expenditures for two populations, the elderly and privately insured adults. Our findings illustrate the need for researchers to examine their assumptions about link functions: the appropriate link function varies across our four distributions. The EEE model, which has a flexible link function, is a robust estimator that performs as well, or better, than the other models in each distribution.

  19. Estimates of Preventability and Their Relation to Health Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poole, Gary D.

    It was hypothesized that a person's estimates of the preventability of health problems would be related to health behaviors such that a person who engages in healthful behavior should make higher estimates of preventability. A study was conducted to investigate the relationship between causal attribution of health problems and health-related…

  20. Risking Life and Limb: Estimating a Measure of Medical Care Economic Risk and Considering its Implications.

    PubMed

    Abramowitz, Joelle; O'Hara, Brett; Morris, Darcy Steeg

    2017-04-01

    This paper considers the risk of incurring future medical expenditures in light of a family's resources available to pay for those expenditures as well as their choice of health insurance. We model non-premium medical out-of-pocket expenditures and use the estimates from our model to develop a prospective measure of medical care economic risk estimating the proportion of families who are at risk of incurring high non-premium out-of-pocket medical care expenses in relation to its resources. We further use the estimates from our model to compare the extent to which different types of insurance mitigate the risk of incurring non-premium expenditures by providing for increased utilization of medical care. We find that while 21.3% of families lack the resources to pay for the median expenditures for their insurance type, 42.4% lack the resources to pay for the 99(th) percentile of expenditures for their insurance type. We also find the mediating effect of insurance on non-premium expenditures to outweigh the associated premium expense for expenditures above $1804 for employer-sponsored insurance and $4337 for direct purchase insurance for those younger than age 65; and above $12 118 of expenditures for Medicare supplementary plans for those aged 65 or older. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  1. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu). PMID:27974141

  2. Risk communication for environmental health hazards.

    PubMed

    Wiedemann, P M; Schütz, H

    1999-08-01

    Starting with the analysis of communication problems in the field of therapeutical and environmental risks the special requirements and challenges of communicating environmental health risks will be outlined. Important problems of this type of risk communication include: (1) The political context which imposes a new role structure upon the doctor and the people involved, (2) the special importance of credibility of scientific statements, given the limited understanding of health risks related to the environment, and (3) the strong emotional component and therefore the conflict-proneness of communication.

  3. Public Health Risk Conditioned by Chemical Composition of Ground Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yankovich, E.; Osipova, N.; Yankovich, K.; Matveenko, I.

    2016-03-01

    The article studies the public health potential risk originated from water consumption and estimated on the basis of the groundwater chemical composition. We have processed the results of chemical groundwater analysis in different aquifers of Tomsk district (Tomsk Oblast, Russia). More than 8400 samples of chemical groundwater analyses were taken during long-term observation period. Human health risk assessment of exposure to contaminants in drinking water was performed in accordance with the risk assessment guidance for public health concerning chemical pollution of the environment (Russian reference number: 2.1.10.1920-04-M, 2004). Identified potential risks were estimated for consuming water of each aquifer. The comparative analysis of water quality of different aquifers was performed on the basis of the risk coefficient of the total non-carcinogenic effects. The non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the Tomsk district population due to groundwater consumption without prior sanitary treatment was admitted acceptable. A rather similar picture is observed for all aquifers, although deeper aquifers show lower hazard coefficients.

  4. Kalman Filter Constraint Tuning for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

    2005-01-01

    Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. Recently published work has shown a new method for incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter, which has been shown to generally improve the filter s estimation accuracy. However, the incorporation of inequality constraints poses some risk to the estimation accuracy as the Kalman filter is theoretically optimal. This paper proposes a way to tune the filter constraints so that the state estimates follow the unconstrained (theoretically optimal) filter when the confidence in the unconstrained filter is high. When confidence in the unconstrained filter is not so high, then we use our heuristic knowledge to constrain the state estimates. The confidence measure is based on the agreement of measurement residuals with their theoretical values. The algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate engine health.

  5. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1991-10-01

    This lecture will provide a bridge from the physical energy or LET spectra as might be calculated in an organ to the risk of carcinogenesis, a particular concern for extended missions to the moon or beyond to Mars. Topics covered will include (1) LET spectra expected from galactic cosmic rays, (2) probabilities that individual cell nuclei in the body will be hit by heavy galactic cosmic ray particles, (3) the conventional methods of calculating risks from a mixed environment of high and low LET radiation, (4) an alternate method which provides certain advantages using fluence-related risk coefficients (risk cross sections), and (5) directions for future research and development of these ideas.

  6. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  7. Health risks from indoor formaldehyde exposures in northwest weatherized residences

    SciTech Connect

    Mellinger, P.J.; Sever, L.E.

    1986-10-01

    Conflicting opinions on the potential hazards associated with formaldehyde exposure triggered a national workshop to address the toxicological questions concerning the health effects of formaldehyde. Since quantitative human data are not available to derive a dose-response curve for formaldehyde risk assessment, nonhuman data are used. In the case of formaldehyde, data from animals exposed to high concentrations are used to estimate human risk at much lower concentrations. This study presents the several steps that make up a risk assessment and examines any additional data that might alter significantly the risk estimates presented in the 1984 EIS. Rat inhalation chronic bioassay data from a study sponsored by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology (CIIT) have been used to develop a risk equation that was subsequently used by BPA in its EIS. The CIIT data base remains the only acceptable animal data that can support the estimation of a dose-response curve. The development of mathematical models continues with a great deal of energy, and the use of different models is largely responsible for the great variability of the formaldehyde risk estimates. While one can calculate different values for carcinogenic risk associated with formaldehyde exposure than were presented earlier in the BPA EIS, they are not likely to be any better.

  8. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... 0–29.9 Obesity 30.0 and Above Waist Circumference Measuring waist circumference helps screen for possible health risks that come ... Risks of Obesity-Associated Diseases by BMI and Waist Circumference provides you with an idea of whether your ...

  9. Health Risk Behaviors and Academic Achievement

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2009 † Health-Risk Behaviors Percentage of U.S. high school students who engaged in each risk behavior, by type of grades mostly earned A’s B’s C’s D’s/F’s Unintentional Injury and Violence-Related Behaviors Rarely or never wore a seat ...

  10. Air pollution and health risks due to vehicle traffic.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

    2013-04-15

    Traffic congestion increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality, and recent studies have shown excess morbidity and mortality for drivers, commuters and individuals living near major roadways. Presently, our understanding of the air pollution impacts from congestion on roads is very limited. This study demonstrates an approach to characterize risks of traffic for on- and near-road populations. Simulation modeling was used to estimate on- and near-road NO2 concentrations and health risks for freeway and arterial scenarios attributable to traffic for different traffic volumes during rush hour periods. The modeling used emission factors from two different models (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model and Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model version 6.2), an empirical traffic speed-volume relationship, the California Line Source Dispersion Model, an empirical NO2-NOx relationship, estimated travel time changes during congestion, and concentration-response relationships from the literature, which give emergency doctor visits, hospital admissions and mortality attributed to NO2 exposure. An incremental analysis, which expresses the change in health risks for small increases in traffic volume, showed non-linear effects. For a freeway, "U" shaped trends of incremental risks were predicted for on-road populations, and incremental risks are flat at low traffic volumes for near-road populations. For an arterial road, incremental risks increased sharply for both on- and near-road populations as traffic increased. These patterns result from changes in emission factors, the NO2-NOx relationship, the travel delay for the on-road population, and the extended duration of rush hour for the near-road population. This study suggests that health risks from congestion are potentially significant, and that additional traffic can significantly increase risks, depending on the type of road and other factors. Further, evaluations of risk associated with congestion must

  11. Air pollution and health risks due to vehicle traffic

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

    2014-01-01

    Traffic congestion increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality, and recent studies have shown excess morbidity and mortality for drivers, commuters and individuals living near major roadways. Presently, our understanding of the air pollution impacts from congestion on roads is very limited. This study demonstrates an approach to characterize risks of traffic for on- and near-road populations. Simulation modeling was used to estimate on- and near-road NO2 concentrations and health risks for freeway and arterial scenarios attributable to traffic for different traffic volumes during rush hour periods. The modeling used emission factors from two different models (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model and Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model version 6.2), an empirical traffic speed–volume relationship, the California Line Source Dispersion Model, an empirical NO2–NOx relationship, estimated travel time changes during congestion, and concentration–response relationships from the literature, which give emergency doctor visits, hospital admissions and mortality attributed to NO2 exposure. An incremental analysis, which expresses the change in health risks for small increases in traffic volume, showed non-linear effects. For a freeway, “U” shaped trends of incremental risks were predicted for on-road populations, and incremental risks are flat at low traffic volumes for near-road populations. For an arterial road, incremental risks increased sharply for both on- and near-road populations as traffic increased. These patterns result from changes in emission factors, the NO2–NOx relationship, the travel delay for the on-road population, and the extended duration of rush hour for the near-road population. This study suggests that health risks from congestion are potentially significant, and that additional traffic can significantly increase risks, depending on the type of road and other factors. Further, evaluations of risk associated with congestion

  12. Optimal Allocation for the Estimation of Attributable Risk,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    control studies . Various optimal strategies are examined using alternative exposure-specific disease rates. Odd Ratio, Relative Risk and Attributable Risk....This paper derives an expression for the optimum sampling allocation under the minimum variance criterion of the estimated attributable risk for case

  13. Health risk assessment of groundwater arsenic pollution in southern Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Liang, Ching-Ping; Wang, Sheng-Wei; Kao, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Jui-Sheng

    2016-12-01

    Residents of the Pingtung Plain, Taiwan, use groundwater for drinking. However, monitoring results showed that a considerable portion of groundwater has an As concentration higher than the safe drinking water regulation of 10 μg/L. Considering residents of the Pingtung Plain continue to use groundwater for drinking, this study attempted to evaluate the exposure and health risk from drinking groundwater. The health risk from drinking groundwater was evaluated based on the hazard quotient (HQ) and target risk (TR) established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The results showed that the 95th percentile of HQ exceeded 1 and TR was above the safe value of threshold value of 10(-6). To illustrate significant variability of the drinking water consumption rate and body weight of each individual, health risk assessments were also performed using a spectrum of daily water intake rate and body weight to reasonably and conservatively assess the exposure and health risk for the specific subgroups of population of the Pingtung Plain. The assessment results showed that 0.01-7.50 % of the population's HQ levels are higher than 1 and as much as 77.7-93.3 % of the population being in high cancer risk category and having a TR value >10(-6). The TR estimation results implied that groundwater use for drinking purpose places people at risk of As exposure. The government must make great efforts to provide safe drinking water for residents of the Pingtung Plain.

  14. Methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl: health risk uncertainties and research directions.

    PubMed Central

    Davis, J M

    1998-01-01

    With the way cleared for increased use of the fuel additive methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT) in the United States, the issue of possible public health impacts associated with this additive has gained greater attention. In assessing potential health risks of particulate Mn emitted from the combustion of MMT in gasoline, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency not only considered the qualitative types of toxic effects associated with inhaled Mn, but conducted extensive exposure-response analyses using various statistical approaches and also estimated population exposure distributions of particulate Mn based on data from an exposure study conducted in California when MMT was used in leaded gasoline. Because of limitations in available data and the need to make several assumptions and extrapolations, the resulting risk characterization had inherent uncertainties that made it impossible to estimate health risks in a definitive or quantitative manner. To support an improved health risk characterization, further investigation is needed in the areas of health effects, emission characterization, and exposure analysis. PMID:9539013

  15. [Estimation of absolute risk for fracture].

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Saeko

    2009-03-01

    Osteoporosis treatment aims to prevent fractures and maintain the QOL of the elderly. However, persons at high risk of future fracture cannot be effectively identified on the basis of bone density (BMD) alone, although BMD is used as an diagnostic criterion. Therefore, the WHO recommended that absolute risk for fracture (10-year probability of fracture) for each individual be evaluated and used as an index for intervention threshold. The 10-year probability of fracture is calculated based on age, sex, BMD at the femoral neck (body mass index if BMD is not available), history of previous fractures, parental hip fracture history, smoking, steroid use, rheumatoid arthritis, secondary osteoporosis and alcohol consumption. The WHO has just announced the development of a calculation tool (FRAX: WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) in February this year. Fractures could be prevented more effectively if, based on each country's medical circumstances, an absolute risk value for fracture to determine when to start medical treatment is established and persons at high risk of fracture are identified and treated accordingly.

  16. Interactive graphics for expressing health risks: development and qualitative evaluation.

    PubMed

    Ancker, Jessica S; Chan, Connie; Kukafka, Rita

    2009-01-01

    Recent findings suggest that interactive game-like graphics might be useful in communicating probabilities. We developed a prototype for a risk communication module, focusing on eliciting users' preferences for different interactive graphics and assessing usability and user interpretations. Feedback from five focus groups was used to design the graphics. The final version displayed a matrix of square buttons; clicking on any button allowed the user to see whether the stick figure underneath was affected by the health outcome. When participants used this interaction to learn about a risk, they expressed more emotional responses, both positive and negative, than when viewing any static graphic or numerical description of a risk. Their responses included relief about small risks and concern about large risks. The groups also commented on static graphics: arranging the figures affected by disease randomly throughout a group of figures made it more difficult to judge the proportion affected but often was described as more realistic. Interactive graphics appear to have potential for expressing risk magnitude as well as the feeling of risk. This affective impact could be useful in increasing perceived threat of high risks, calming fears about low risks, or comparing risks. Quantitative studies are planned to assess the effect on perceived risks and estimated risk magnitudes.

  17. Non-parametric estimation of spatial variation in relative risk.

    PubMed

    Kelsall, J E; Diggle, P J

    We consider the problem of estimating the spatial variation in relative risks of two diseases, say, over a geographical region. Using an underlying Poisson point process model, we approach the problem as one of density ratio estimation implemented with a non-parametric kernel smoothing method. In order to assess the significance of any local peaks or troughs in the estimated risk surface, we introduce pointwise tolerance contours which can enhance a greyscale image plot of the estimate. We also propose a Monte Carlo test of the null hypothesis of constant risk over the whole region, to avoid possible over-interpretation of the estimated risk surface. We illustrate the capabilities of the methodology with two epidemiological examples.

  18. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Laura L; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators.

  19. The prevention of health risks in Cuba.

    PubMed

    Guttmacher, S

    1987-01-01

    Cuba still has a double burden of health risks. It must contend with some risks to health that persist in underdeveloped rural areas, and it must also deal with the risk factors associated with modern, urban living conditions. The economic and social changes fostered in the postrevolutionary period have reduced the relative importance of the first set of factors, but the changes have also introduced or intensified a myriad of factors derived from their own successes. In this article, the risk factors of greatest concern in contemporary Cuba are described, and the strategies adopted to combat these risk factors, together with the ways in which such strategies are shaped by Cuba's social and economic development are discussed.

  20. Categorizing sources of risk and the estimated magnitude of risk.

    PubMed

    Aragonés, Juan Ignacio; Moyano, Emilio; Talayero, Fernando

    2008-05-01

    The social perception of risk is considered a multidimensional task, yet little attention has been paid to the cognitive components that organize sources of risk, despite their having been discovered in various research studies. This study attempts to concretely analyze the cultural dimension involved in those processes. In the first phase, we tried to discover to what extent sources of risk are organized into the same categories by people from different countries. In order to do so, two groups of participants were formed: 60 Spanish psychology students and 60 Chilean psychology students classified 43 sources of risk into different groups according to the criteria they found appropriate. The two samples classified risk into identical groups: acts of violence, drugs, electricity and home appliances, household chemicals, chemicals in the environment, public construction projects, transportation, sports, and natural disasters. In a second study, 100 Spanish and 84 Chilean students were asked to evaluate the magnitude of the damage incurred by 17 sources of risk. In both groups, it was observed that the evaluation of damage resulting from each source of risk was affected by its category.

  1. A generic computerized method for estimate of familial risks.

    PubMed Central

    Colombet, Isabelle; Xu, Yigang; Jaulent, Marie-Christine; Desages, Daniel; Degoulet, Patrice; Chatellier, Gilles

    2002-01-01

    Most guidelines developed for cancers screening and for cardiovascular risk management use rules to estimate familial risk. These rules are complex, difficult to memorize, and need to collect a complete pedigree. This paper describes a generic computerized method to estimate familial risks and its implementation in an internet-based application. The program is based on 3 generic models: a model of the family; a model of familial risk; a display model for the pedigree. The model of family allows to represent each member of the family and to construct and display a family tree. The model of familial risk is generic and allows easy update of the program with new diseases or new rules. It was possible to implement guidelines dealing with breast and colorectal cancer and cardiovascular diseases prevention. First evaluation with general practitioners showed that the program was usable. Impact on quality of familial risk estimate should be more documented. PMID:12463810

  2. Estimation of the Disease Burden Attributable to 11 Risk Factors in Hubei Province, China: A Comparative Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Fangfang; Zhang, Lan; Yu, Chuanhua; Hu, Songbo; Zhang, Yunquan

    2016-01-01

    In order to estimate the health losses caused by common risk factors in the Hubei province, China, we calculated the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 11 risk factors. We estimated the exposure distributions of risk factors in Hubei Province in 2013 from the monitoring system on chronic disease and related risk factors, combined with relative risk (RR) in order to calculate the population attributable fraction. Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were then estimated together with cause-specific deaths and DALYs. In total, 53.39% of the total deaths and 36.23% of the total DALYs in Hubei were a result of the 11 selected risk factors. The top five risk factors were high blood pressure, smoking, high body mass index, diet low in fruits and alcohol use, accounting for 14.68%, 12.57%, 6.03%, 3.90% and 3.19% of total deaths, respectively, and 9.41%, 7.22%, 4.42%, 2.51% and 2.44% of total DALYs, respectively. These risk factors, especially high blood pressure, smoking and high body mass index, significantly influenced quality of life, causing a large number of deaths and DALYs. The burden of chronic disease could be substantially reduced if these risk factors were effectively controlled, which would allow people to enjoy healthier lives. PMID:27669279

  3. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  4. Space Radiation and Risks to Human Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Janice L.

    2014-01-01

    The radiation environment in space poses significant challenges to human health and is a major concern for long duration manned space missions. Outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays, whose physical characteristics are distinct from terrestrial sources of radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Galactic cosmic rays consist of high energy and high mass nuclei as well as high energy protons; they impart unique biological damage as they traverse through tissue with impacts on human health that are largely unknown. The major health issues of concern are the risks of radiation carcinogenesis, acute and late decrements to the central nervous system, degenerative tissue effects such as cardiovascular disease, as well as possible acute radiation syndromes due to an unshielded exposure to a large solar particle event. The NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is focused on characterization and mitigation of these space radiation health risks along with understanding these risks in context of the other biological stressors found in the space environment. In this overview, we will provide a description of these health risks and the Element's research strategies to understand and mitigate these risks.

  5. The association of health risks with workers' compensation costs.

    PubMed

    Musich, S; Napier, D; Edington, D W

    2001-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between health risks and workers' compensation (WC) costs. The 4-year study used Health Risk Appraisal data and focused on 1996-to-1999 WC costs among Xerox Corporation's long-term employees. High WC costs were related to individual health risks, especially Health Age Index (a measure of controllable risks), smoking, poor physical health, physical inactivity, and life dissatisfaction. WC costs increased with increasing health risk status (low-risk to medium-risk to high-risk). Low-risk employees had the lowest costs. In this population, 85% of WC costs could be attributed to excess risks (medium- or high-risk) or non-participation. Among those with claims, a savings of $1238 per person per year was associated with Health Risk Appraisal participation. Addressing WC costs by focusing on employee health status provides an important additional strategy for health promotion programs.

  6. Adolescent Health Risk Profiles: The Co-Occurrence of Health Risks among Females and Males.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zweig, Janine M.; Lindberg, Laura Duberstein; McGinley, Karen Alexander

    2001-01-01

    Examines the interrelationships among adolescent health risk behaviors using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health for 12,955 adolescents. Findings show distinct differences for males and females in risk profile, but few distinctions between profiles based on socioeconomic characteristics. (SLD)

  7. Concentrations and Potential Health Risks of Metals in Lip Products

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Sa; Rojas-Cheatham, Ann

    2013-01-01

    Background: Metal content in lip products has been an issue of concern. Objectives: We measured lead and eight other metals in a convenience sample of 32 lip products used by young Asian women in Oakland, California, and assessed potential health risks related to estimated intakes of these metals. Methods: We analyzed lip products by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and used previous estimates of lip product usage rates to determine daily oral intakes. We derived acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) based on information used to determine public health goals for exposure, and compared ADIs with estimated intakes to assess potential risks. Results: Most of the tested lip products contained high concentrations of titanium and aluminum. All examined products had detectable manganese. Lead was detected in 24 products (75%), with an average concentration of 0.36 ± 0.39 ppm, including one sample with 1.32 ppm. When used at the estimated average daily rate, estimated intakes were > 20% of ADIs derived for aluminum, cadmium, chromium, and manganese. In addition, average daily use of 10 products tested would result in chromium intake exceeding our estimated ADI for chromium. For high rates of product use (above the 95th percentile), the percentages of samples with estimated metal intakes exceeding ADIs were 3% for aluminum, 68% for chromium, and 22% for manganese. Estimated intakes of lead were < 20% of ADIs for average and high use. Conclusions: Cosmetics safety should be assessed not only by the presence of hazardous contents, but also by comparing estimated exposures with health-based standards. In addition to lead, metals such as aluminum, cadmium, chromium, and manganese require further investigation. PMID:23674482

  8. Tissue allografts and health risks.

    PubMed

    Delloye, C

    1994-01-01

    Like vascularized transplants, tissue allografts are able to transmit viral and bacterial diseases. Transmission of HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) and HCV (Hepatitis C virus) has been proved for sterilized, unprocessed and deep-frozen allografts. It is the prime responsibility of the tissue bank to select the donor correctly and to perform careful biological screening. However, standard screening is not enough to detect a seronegative but contaminated donor. It is necessary to quarantine the tissues until complementary screening confirms the absence of viral disease. If secondary screening is not possible, the tissues should be discarded or should be processed. If donor selection, relevant and appropriate screening tests and adequate procurement of tissues are carefully made, then the risk of disease transmission from tissue allografts will remain remote.

  9. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  10. Health risk associated with airborne asbestos.

    PubMed

    Pawełczyk, Adam; Božek, František

    2015-07-01

    The following paper presents an assessment of health risks associated with air polluted with respirable asbestos fibers in towns of southwest Poland. The aim of the work was to determine whether or not any prevention measures are necessary in order to reduce the level of exposure to the pollutant. The risk assessment was carried out based on the air analyses and the latest asbestos toxicity data published by the Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), USA and Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA). It was found that in some sites, the concentration of the asbestos fibers exceeded the acceptable levels, which should be a reason of special concern. The highest concentration of asbestos was found in town centers during the rush hours. In three spots, the calculated maximum health risk exceeded 1E-04 which is considered too high according to the adopted standards. So far, it has not yet been possible to find a reasonable method of ensuring the hazard reduction.

  11. Lifestyle and health-related risk factors and risk of cognitive aging among older veterans.

    PubMed

    Yaffe, Kristine; Hoang, Tina D; Byers, Amy L; Barnes, Deborah E; Friedl, Karl E

    2014-06-01

    Lifestyle and health-related factors are critical components of the risk for cognitive aging among veterans. Because dementia has a prolonged prodromal phase, understanding effects across the life course could help focus the timing and duration of prevention targets. This perspective may be especially relevant for veterans and health behaviors. Military service may promote development and maintenance of healthy lifestyle behaviors, but the period directly after active duty has ended could be an important transition stage and opportunity to address some important risk factors. Targeting multiple pathways in one intervention may maximize efficiency and benefits for veterans. A recent review of modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer's disease estimated that a 25% reduction of a combination of seven modifiable risk factors including diabetes, hypertension, obesity, depression, physical inactivity, smoking, and education/cognitive inactivity could prevent up to 3 million cases worldwide and 492,000 cases in the United States. Lifestyle interventions to address cardiovascular health in veterans may serve as useful models with both physical and cognitive activity components, dietary intervention, and vascular risk factor management. Although the evidence is accumulating for lifestyle and health-related risk factors as well as military risk factors, more studies are needed to characterize these factors in veterans and to examine the potential interactions between them.

  12. Physical Activity, Health Benefits, and Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Kokkinos, Peter

    2012-01-01

    A plethora of epidemiologic evidence from large studies supports unequivocally an inverse, independent, and graded association between volume of physical activity, health, and cardiovascular and overall mortality. This association is evident in apparently healthy individuals, patients with hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease, regardless of body weight. Moreover, the degree of risk associated with physical inactivity is similar to, and in some cases even stronger than, the more traditional cardiovascular risk factors. The exercise-induced health benefits are in part related to favorable modulations of cardiovascular risk factors observed by increased physical activity or structured exercise programs. Although the independent contribution of the exercise components, intensity, duration, and frequency to the reduction of mortality risk is not clear, it is well accepted that an exercise volume threshold defined at caloric expenditure of approximately 1,000 Kcal per week appears to be necessary for significant reduction in mortality risk. Further reductions in risk are observed with higher volumes of energy expenditure. Physical exertion is also associated with a relatively low and transient increase in risk for cardiac events. This risk is significantly higher for older and sedentary individuals. Therefore, such individuals should consult their physician prior to engaging in exercise. “Walking is man’s best medicine”Hippocrates PMID:23198160

  13. Synthetic-fuel plants: potential tumor risks to public health.

    PubMed

    Moskowitz, P D; Morris, S C; Fischer, H; Thode, H C; Hamilton, L D

    1985-09-01

    This article quantifies potential public health risks from tumor-producing pollutants emitted from two synthetic-fuel plants (direct liquefaction--Exxon Donor Solvent: and indirect liquefaction--Lurgi Fischer-Tropsch) located at a representative site in the eastern United States. In these analyses gaseous and aqueous waste streams were characterized; exposures via inhalation, terrestrial and aquatic food chains, and drinking water supplies were modeled. Analysis suggested that emissions of "polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons," "aromatic amines," "neutral N, O, S heterocyclics," "nitriles," and "other trace elements" pose the largest quantifiable risks to public health. Data and analysis for these pollutant categories should be refined to more accurately match compound-specific estimated exposure levels with tumorigenic potency estimates. Before these results are used for regulatory purposes, more detailed analysis for selected pollutant classes are needed, and more sophisticated aquatic exposure models must be developed. Also, differences in geographic scales among the environmental transport models used need to be rectified.

  14. Smoking as a risk factor in the health of women.

    PubMed

    Seltzer, V

    2003-09-01

    It is estimated that more than 200 million women smoke worldwide. It is also estimated that if current smoking rates among men and women persist worldwide, by 2025, 9% of the world's deaths and disabilities will be related to tobacco use. Smoking is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer (lung, cervix, pancreas, kidney, bladder, esophagus, pharynx), pulmonary disorders, cerebrovascular disease, and many other health risks. Smoking also adversely affects fertility and reproductive outcomes. Although a greater percentage of women smoke in developed than in developing countries, women in developing countries appear to be initiating smoking habits in increasing numbers. If current trends persist, the adverse effects of smoking on women's health clearly will continue to escalate.

  15. Thinking Concretely Increases the Perceived Likelihood of Risks: The Effect of Construal Level on Risk Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lermer, Eva; Streicher, Bernhard; Sachs, Rainer; Raue, Martina; Frey, Dieter

    2016-03-01

    Recent findings on construal level theory (CLT) suggest that abstract thinking leads to a lower estimated probability of an event occurring compared to concrete thinking. We applied this idea to the risk context and explored the influence of construal level (CL) on the overestimation of small and underestimation of large probabilities for risk estimates concerning a vague target person (Study 1 and Study 3) and personal risk estimates (Study 2). We were specifically interested in whether the often-found overestimation of small probabilities could be reduced with abstract thinking, and the often-found underestimation of large probabilities was reduced with concrete thinking. The results showed that CL influenced risk estimates. In particular, a concrete mindset led to higher risk estimates compared to an abstract mindset for several adverse events, including events with small and large probabilities. This suggests that CL manipulation can indeed be used for improving the accuracy of lay people's estimates of small and large probabilities. Moreover, the results suggest that professional risk managers' risk estimates of common events (thus with a relatively high probability) could be improved by adopting a concrete mindset. However, the abstract manipulation did not lead managers to estimate extremely unlikely events more accurately. Potential reasons for different CL manipulation effects on risk estimates' accuracy between lay people and risk managers are discussed.

  16. The risks of innovation in health care.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R

    2015-04-01

    Innovation in health care creates risks that are unevenly distributed. An evolutionary analogy using species to represent business models helps categorize innovation experiments and their risks. This classification reveals two qualitative categories: early and late diversification experiments. Early diversification has prolific innovations with high risk because they encounter a "decimation" stage, during which most experiments disappear. Participants face high risk. The few decimation survivors can be sustaining or disruptive according to Christensen's criteria. Survivors enter late diversification, during which they again expand, but within a design range limited to variations of the previous surviving designs. Late diversifications carry lower risk. The exception is when disruptive survivors "diversify," which amplifies their disruption. Health care and radiology will experience both early and late diversifications, often simultaneously. Although oversimplifying Christensen's concepts, early diversifications are likely to deliver disruptive innovation, whereas late diversifications tend to produce sustaining innovations. Current health care consolidation is a manifestation of late diversification. Early diversifications will appear outside traditional care models and physical health care sites, as well as with new science such as molecular diagnostics. They warrant attention because decimation survivors will present both disruptive and sustaining opportunities to radiology. Radiology must participate in late diversification by incorporating sustaining innovations to its value chain. Given the likelihood of disruptive survivors, radiology should seriously consider disrupting itself rather than waiting for others to do so. Disruption entails significant modifications of its value chain, hence, its business model, for which lessons may become available from the pharmaceutical industry's current simultaneous experience with early and late diversifications.

  17. A 21st century roadmap for human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pastoor, Timothy P; Bachman, Ammie N; Bell, David R; Cohen, Samuel M; Dellarco, Michael; Dewhurst, Ian C; Doe, John E; Doerrer, Nancy G; Embry, Michelle R; Hines, Ronald N; Moretto, Angelo; Phillips, Richard D; Rowlands, J Craig; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Wolf, Douglas C; Boobis, Alan R

    2014-08-01

    The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI)-coordinated Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) project was initiated to develop a scientific, transparent, and efficient approach to the evolving world of human health risk assessment, and involved over 120 participants from 12 countries, 15 government institutions, 20 universities, 2 non-governmental organizations, and 12 corporations. This paper provides a brief overview of the tiered RISK21 framework called the roadmap and risk visualization matrix, and articulates the core principles derived by RISK21 participants that guided its development. Subsequent papers describe the roadmap and matrix in greater detail. RISK21 principles include focusing on problem formulation, utilizing existing information, starting with exposure assessment (rather than toxicity), and using a tiered process for data development. Bringing estimates of exposure and toxicity together on a two-dimensional matrix provides a clear rendition of human safety and risk. The value of the roadmap is its capacity to chronicle the stepwise acquisition of scientific information and display it in a clear and concise fashion. Furthermore, the tiered approach and transparent display of information will contribute to greater efficiencies by calling for data only as needed (enough precision to make a decision), thus conserving animals and other resources.

  18. Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

    PubMed

    Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

    2013-02-01

    Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L).

  19. Health Risk Assessment for Cyanobacterial Toxins in Seafood

    PubMed Central

    Mulvenna, Vanora; Dale, Katie; Priestly, Brian; Mueller, Utz; Humpage, Andrew; Shaw, Glen; Allinson, Graeme; Falconer, Ian

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) are abundant in fresh, brackish and marine waters worldwide. When toxins produced by cyanobacteria are present in the aquatic environment, seafood harvested from these waters may present a health hazard to consumers. Toxicity hazards from seafood have been internationally recognised when the source is from marine algae (dinoflagellates and diatoms), but to date few risk assessments for cyanobacterial toxins in seafood have been presented. This paper estimates risk from seafood contaminated by cyanobacterial toxins, and provides guidelines for safe human consumption. PMID:22690165

  20. "Light" Tobacco Products Pose Heavy Health Risks

    MedlinePlus

    ... Products For Consumers Home For Consumers Consumer Updates "Light" Tobacco Products Pose Heavy Health Risks Share Tweet ... Feed A federal law is restricting the words “light,” “low,” and “mild” from tobacco products now on ...

  1. Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

  2. Estimating the Contribution of Selected Risk Factors in Attributable Burden to Stroke in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Karami, M; Soori, H; Monfared, A Bahadori

    2012-01-01

    Background: Knowledge of the magnitude of avoidable burden by risk factors is needed for health policy, priority setting, and preventing stroke. The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of selected risk factors including hypertension, overweight, obesity, tobacco use, and physical inactivity to the attributable burden of stroke in Iran. Methods: The World Health Organization Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was employed to calculate the Potential Impact Fraction (PIF) and percentage of avoidable burden of stroke, which attributed to its risk factors among Iranian adults in 2009. Prevalence of risk factors was obtained from the 5th STEPS survey of chronic disease risk factors which conducted in 2009. PIF was estimated on both theoretical minimum and feasible minimum risk. A simulation procedure incorporating sources of uncertainty was used to estimate the uncertainties for the attributable burden. Results: About 15.7% (95% uncertainty intervals: 5.8- 23.5) of attributable Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to stroke in adult males and 15.8% (95% uncertainty intervals: 5.8- 23.5) in adult females are avoidable after changing the current prevalence (16.0% and 16.1% for males and females, respectively) of hypertension to 10% in both sexes. Conclusion: This work highlighted the important role of hypertension and overweight. Accordingly, policy makers are advised to consider these risk factors once implementing interventional program in Iran. PMID:23113182

  3. Exploring perceptions of cancer risk, neighborhood environmental risks, and health behaviors of blacks.

    PubMed

    Rice, LaShanta J; Brandt, Heather M; Hardin, James W; Ingram, Lucy Annang; Wilson, Sacoby M

    2015-06-01

    Cancer risk perceptions and cancer worry are shaped by race/ethnicity, and social, economic, and environmental factors, which in turn shape health decision-making. A paucity of studies has explored risk perceptions and worry in metropolitan areas with disparate environmental conditions and cancer outcomes. This study examined perceptions of cancer risk, neighborhood environmental health risks, and risk-reducing health behaviors among Blacks. A 59-item survey was administered to respondents in Metropolitan Charleston, South Carolina from March to September 2013. A convenience sample of males and females was recruited at local venues and community events. Descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses (Chi square tests), and logistic regression models were estimated using SAS 9.3 software. Respondents (N = 405) were 100% Black, 81% female (n = 323), and ranged from 18 to 87 years of age (M = 49.55, SD = 15.27). Most respondents reported lower perceptions of cancer risk (37%) and equated their cancer beliefs to direct or indirect (i.e. personal or family) experiences. Low perceived cancer risk (absolute risk) was significantly associated (p < .05) with non-alcohol consumption, having a colon cancer screening test, being female, and being age 25-44 or 45-64. Cancer worry was significantly associated (p < .05) with being a current smoker, having a "fair" diet, non-alcohol consumption, and having any colon cancer screening test. Perceived cancer risk is an important indicator of health behaviors among Blacks. Direct or indirect experiences with cancer and/or the environment and awareness of family history of cancer may explain cancer risk perceptions.

  4. Supplementary Guidance for Conducting Health Risk ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document is a supplement to the EPA Guidelines for the Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures of 1986. The 1986 Guidelines represent the Agency's science policy and are a procedural guide for evaluating data on the health risks from exposures to chemical mixtures. The emphasis is on dose response and risk characterization. The principles and concepts put forth in the Guidelines remain in effect. However, where the Guidelines describe broad principles and include few specific procedures, the present guidance is a supplement that is intended to provide more detail on these principles and their applications.After an overview of the background and scope, this supplementary guidance puts forth the risk assessment paradigm for mixtures. This paradigm begins with problem formulation, then briefly discusses hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure, and risk characterization. The document is organized according to the type of data available. Procedures are described for assessment using data on the mixture of concern, data on a toxicologically similar mixture, and data on the mixture component chemicals. The state of the science varies dramatically for these three approaches. The whole-mixture procedures are most advanced for assessing carcinogenic risk, mainly because of the long use of in vitro mutagenicity tests to indicate carcinogenic potency. In vitro test procedures for noncancer endpoints are still in the pionee

  5. Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations.

    PubMed

    Huda, Walter; He, Wenjun

    2012-06-01

    The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics.

  6. Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

    1994-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

  7. Community health risk assessment after a fire with asbestos containing fallout

    PubMed Central

    Bridgman, S

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND—A factory fire in Tranmere, Merseyside, England, deposited asbestos containing fallout in an urban area. There was considerable community anxiety for months after the incident. Therefore an assessment of the long term health risks of this acute environmental incident were requested by the local health authority.
METHODS—The facts of the incident were gathered and appraised from unpublished and press reports, involved personnel, and further analysis of material collected at the time of the incident. The literature on the long term health risks of asbestos was reviewed, and combined with evidence on asbestos exposure to estimate community health risk.
RESULTS—Risk was almost entirely from exposure to fire fallout of chrysotile in asbestos bitumen paper covering the factory roof. Amosite was only detected in a few samples and in trace amounts. The number of people who lived in the area of fallout was 16 000 to 48 000. From a non-threshold model with assumptions likely to overestimate risk, the lung cancer risk is estimated to be undetectably small. Risk of mesothelioma from chrysotile exposure, and risks of lung cancer and mesothelioma from amosite exposure were based on observational studies and were estimated to be even lower than that of lung cancer risk from chrysotile exposure. Academically, there are assumptions that while reasonable cannot be proven, for example, the validity of extrapolating observed risk from much higher exposures to lower exposures, estimates of individual exposure, and that there is no threshold for asbestos to cause cancer.
CONCLUSIONS—The author is unaware of a similar study on long term health risks in a community exposed to asbestos in a fire. It is concluded that, using methods that do not underestimate risk, risk is undetectably small. Practical lessons from this methodology and approach to health risk assessment are discussed.


Keywords: asbestos; environmental pollutants; mesothelioma; health risk

  8. Improving online risk assessment with equipment prognostics and health monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, Xiaotong; Briere, Chris; Ramuhalli, Pradeep

    2016-03-26

    The current approach to evaluating the risk of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation relies on static probabilities of component failure, which are based on industry experience with the existing fleet of nominally similar light water reactors (LWRs). As the nuclear industry looks to advanced reactor designs that feature non-light water coolants (e.g., liquid metal, high temperature gas, molten salt), this operating history is not available. Many advanced reactor designs use advanced components, such as electromagnetic pumps, that have not been used in the US commercial nuclear fleet. Given the lack of rich operating experience, we cannot accurately estimate the evolving probability of failure for basic components to populate the fault trees and event trees that typically comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. Online equipment prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies can bridge this gap to estimate the failure probabilities for components under operation. The enhanced risk monitor (ERM) incorporates equipment condition assessment into the existing PRA and risk monitor framework to provide accurate and timely estimates of operational risk.

  9. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, J.W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Schimmerling, W.

    2004-02-04

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods.

  10. Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänninen, Otto; Brüske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles (<0.1 μm). Laser printers are used occupationally in office environments and by consumers in their homes. The current work combines existing epidemiological and toxicological evidence on particle-related health effects, measuring doses as mass, particle number and surface area, to estimate and compare the potential risks in occupational and consumer exposure scenarios related to the use of laser printers. The daily uptake of laser printer particles was estimated based on measured particle size distributions and lung deposition modelling. The obtained daily uptakes (particle mass 0.15-0.44 μg d-1; particle number 1.1-3.1 × 109 d-1) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 × 10-6, but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

  11. Communicating Health Risks under Pressure: Homeland Security Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Garrahan, K.G.; Collie, S.L.

    2006-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) within the National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) has developed a tool for rapid communication of health risks and likelihood of exposure in preparation for terrorist incidents. The Emergency Consequence Assessment Tool (ECAT) is a secure web-based tool designed to make risk assessment and consequence management faster and easier for high priority terrorist threat scenarios. ECAT has been designed to function as 'defensive play-book' for health advisors, first responders, and decision-makers by presenting a series of evaluation templates for priority scenarios that can be modified for site-specific applications. Perhaps most importantly, the risk communication aspect is considered prior to an actual release event, so that management or legal advisors can concur on general risk communication content in preparation for press releases that can be anticipated in case of an actual emergency. ECAT serves as a one-stop source of information for retrieving toxicological properties for agents of concern, estimating exposure to these agents, characterizing health risks, and determining what actions need to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. ECAT has the capability to be used at a command post where inputs can be checked and communicated while the response continues in real time. This front-end planning is intended to fill the gap most commonly identified during tabletop exercises: a need for concise, timely, and informative risk communication to all parties. Training and customization of existing chemical and biological release scenarios with modeling of exposure to air and water, along with custom risk communication 'messages' intended for public, press, shareholders, and other partners enable more effective communication during times of crisis. For DOE, the ECAT could serve as a prototype that would be amenable to

  12. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  13. From mechanisms to risk estimation--bridging the chasm.

    PubMed

    Curtis, S B; Hazelton, W D; Luebeck, E G; Moolgavkar, S H

    2004-01-01

    We have a considerable amount of work ahead of us to determine the importance of the wealth of new information emerging in the fields of sub-cellular, cellular and tissue biology in order to improve the estimation of radiation risk at low dose and protracted dose-rate. In this paper, we suggest that there is a need to develop models of the specific health effects of interest (e.g., carcinogenesis in specific tissues), which embody as much of the mechanistic (i.e., biological) information as is deemed necessary. Although it is not realistic to expect that every radiation-induced process should or could be included, we can hope that the major factors that shape the time dependence of evolution of damage can be identified and quantified to the point where reasonable estimations of risk can be made. Regarding carcinogenesis in particular, the structure of the model itself plays a role in determining the relative importance of various processes. We use a specific form of a multi-stage carcinogenic model to illustrate this point. We show in a review of the application of this model to lung cancer incidence and mortality in two exposed populations that for both high- and low-LET radiation, there is evidence of an "inverse dose-rate" or protraction effect. This result could be of some considerable importance, because it would imply that risk from protracted exposure even to low-LET radiation might be greater than from acute exposure, an opinion not currently held in the radiation protection community. This model also allows prediction of the evolution of the risk over the lifetimes of the exposed individuals. One inference is that radiation-induced initiation (i.e., the first cellular carcinogenic event(s) occurring in normal tissue after the passage of the radiation) may not be the driving factor in the risk, but more important may be the effects of the radiation on already-initiated cells in the tissue. Although present throughout the length of the exposure, radiation

  14. Women brothel workers and occupational health risks

    PubMed Central

    Cwikel, J; Ilan, K; Chudakov, B

    2003-01-01

    Study objectives: This study examined working conditions, reported morbidity, symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression and their relation to an index of occupational health risk among women working in brothels in Israel. Design: Personal structured interviews with a scale of occupational risk that included seven self report items reflecting past and present morbidity and symptoms. Participants and setting: A purposive sample of 55 women in three cities in Israel, between the ages of 18–38. Main results: Most (82%) women were trafficked into Israel to work illegally in prostitution, effectively deriving them of access to discretionary health care. A third of the sample (32%) had a high score (between 3 to 6) on the index of occupational risk factors. A high score was not related to recent physician or gynaecological visits and was more common among illegal workers than those with residence status. A set of regression analyses showed that the most significant predictors of reporting a high level of occupational risk symptoms were starting sex work at an early age, the number of hours worked in a day, a history of suicide attempts and PTSD symptoms. Conclusions: High occupational risk was found to be unrelated to recent physician or gynaecological visits, indicating that these visits were most probably controlled by the brothel owners and not by medical need as perceived by the women themselves. Furthermore, occupational risk factors were associated with some of the working and background conditions reported by women brothel workers. There is an urgent need for medical care for this high risk group. PMID:14573588

  15. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System: Selected 2011 National Health Risk Behaviors and Health Outcomes by Sex

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) monitors priority health risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death, disability, and social problems among youth and adults in the United States. The national YRBS is conducted every two years during the spring semester and provides data representative of 9th through 12th grade…

  16. Health risk appraisals in Swedish occupational health services

    PubMed Central

    Grooten, Wilhelmus Johannes Andreas; Müller, Mira; Forsman, Mikael; Kjellberg, Katarina; Toomingas, Allan; Björn Olov, Ång; Svartengren, Magnus

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Health risk appraisals (HRAs) in occupational health services (OHS) in Sweden are very commonly used for health promotion issues, but not much research has explored the extent and nature of individual feedback that is provided. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe and explore HRAs in OHS regarding the content of the feedback in relation to the individual status and overall employee satisfaction. METHODS: Feedback (evaluation and advice) and employee satisfaction with HRA were studied in employees that participated in health risk appraisals with a specific feedback session (HRA-F) (n = 272) and employees that participated in a single session (HRA-S) (n = 104). Associations between feedback and individual status concerning life style were assessed with Cohen’s kappa (k). RESULTS: The employees received mainly information and advice for improvement on health and lifestyle issues (89–100%), while advice for improvement of working conditions was less common (15–59%). The feedback provided on life style was not based on individual status (k < 0.4), except for smoking and risky alcohol consumption (k > 0.55). A great majority of employees reported good overall satisfaction with their HRAs. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation and feedback given to employees after HRAs should be based more on HRA-results and advice could be focused more on work-related factors. PMID:28059808

  17. Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

    2002-01-01

    The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

  18. Methods to Develop Inhalation Cancer Risk Estimates for ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document summarizes the approaches and rationale for the technical and scientific considerations used to derive inhalation cancer risks for emissions of chromium and nickel compounds from electric utility steam generating units. The purpose of this document is to discuss the methods used to develop inhalation cancer risk estimates associated with emissions of chromium and nickel compounds from coal- and oil-fired electric utility steam generating units (EGUs) in support of EPA's recently proposed Air Toxics Rule.

  19. [Cyanobacteria, their toxins and health risks].

    PubMed

    Thébault, L; Lesne, J; Boutin, J P

    1995-01-01

    Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) commonly occur in fresh and brackish water where they produce blooms under certain environmental and climatic conditions. Since some species produce neurotoxins, hepatotoxins, cytotoxins, and endotoxins, blooms can be hazardous for animal and human health. Several cases of human cyanobacterial poisoning have been documented, but accurate assessment of the risk is difficult for lack of knowledge concerning exposure levels and the incidence of this kind of poisoning. Most human cases have been reported after oral consumption of contaminated drinking water or swimming in recreation waters where blooms have occurred. Further study is needed to evaluate and manage this risk, especially in regions dependent on surface water for drinking and recreational water areas. This is especially true in tropical and intertropical areas where climatic conditions promote occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms and nothing is known of the impact on public health.

  20. Studies on the extended Techa river cohort: cancer risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Kossenko, M M.; Preston, D L.; Krestinina, L Y.; Degteva, M O.; Startsev, N V.; Thomas, T; Vyushkova, O V.; Anspaugh, L R.; Napier, Bruce A. ); Kozheurov, V P.; Ron, E; Akleyev, A V.

    2001-12-01

    Initial population-based studies of riverside residents were begun in the late 1950s and in 1967 a systematic effort was undertaken to develop a well-defined fixed cohort of Techa river residents, to carry out ongoing mortality and (limited) clinical follow-up of this cohort, and to provide individualized dose estimates for cohort members. Over the past decade, extensive efforts have been made to refine the cohort definition and improve both the follow-up and dosimetry data. Analyses of the Techa river cohort can provide useful quantitative estimates of the effects of low dose rate, chronic external and internal exposures on cancer mortality and incidence and non-cancer mortality rates. These risk estimates complement quantitative risk estimates for acute exposures based on the atomic bomb survivors and chronic exposure risk estimates from worker studies, including Mayak workers and other groups with occupational radiation exposures. As the dosimetry and follow-up are refined it may also be possible to gain useful insights into risks associated with 90Sr exposures.

  1. Climate change and human health: present and future risks.

    PubMed

    McMichael, Anthony J; Woodruff, Rosalie E; Hales, Simon

    2006-03-11

    There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.

  2. Diving in Contaminated Water: Health Risk Matrix

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-10-01

    health effects if they are present in high concentrations. Some of the metals are insoluble ( mercury , lead) and are associated with particles. Therefore...risk associated with that parameter is really low (for example, copper and mercury ). However, divers have to keep in mind that they may encounter higher...levels if they dive in special areas (areas severely affected by mining activities in the case of copper and mercury ). As research and monitoring

  3. A Monte Carlo analysis of health risks from PCB-contaminated mineral oil transformer fires.

    PubMed

    Eschenroeder, A Q; Faeder, E J

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this study is the estimation of health hazards due to the inhalation of combustion products from accidental mineral oil transformer fires. Calculations of production, dispersion, and subsequent human intake of polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) provide us with exposure estimates. PCDFs are believed to be the principal toxic products of the pyrolysis of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) sometimes found as contaminants in transformer mineral oil. Cancer burdens and birth defect hazard indices are estimated from population data and exposure statistics. Monte Carlo-derived variational factors emphasize the statistics of uncertainty in the estimates of risk parameters. Community health issues are addressed and risks are found to be insignificant.

  4. Health Service Areas (HSAs) - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    Health Service Areas (HSAs) are a compromise between the 3000 counties and the 50 states. An HSA may be thought of as an area that is relatively self-contained with respect to hospital care and may cross over state boundries.

  5. Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data.

    PubMed

    Evans, Andrew W

    2003-07-01

    This paper examines the statistical properties of estimates of fatal accident rates, mean fatalities per accident, and fatality rates when these estimates are based on past accident data. The statistical properties are illustrated by two long-term transport fatal accident datasets from Great Britain, the principal one for railways and the other for roads, chosen to provide a statistical contrast. In both modes, the accident rates have fallen substantially over the long term. Two statistical estimates of current accident and fatality rates are presented for each dataset, one based only on recent data and the other based on estimates of long-term trends. The trend-based estimate is preferred for train accidents because this makes maximum use of the limited and variable data; the recent data are preferred for road accidents because this avoids unnecessary dependence on modelling the trends. For train accidents, the estimated fatality rate based on past accidents is compared with an estimate produced by the railway industry using a risk model. The statistical estimate is less than half the industry's estimate, and the paper concludes that the statistical estimate is to be preferred.

  6. Another look at the (im-)precision of individual risk estimates made using actuarial risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Hart, Stephen D; Cooke, David J

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the precision of individual risk estimates made using actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) by discussing some major conceptual issues and then illustrating them by analyzing new data. We used a standard multivariate statistical procedure, logistic regression, to create a new ARAI based on data from a follow-up study of 90 adult male sex offenders. We indexed predictive precision at the group level using confidence intervals for group mean probability estimates, and at the individual level using prediction intervals for individual probability estimates. Consistent with past research, ARAI scores were moderately and significantly predictive of failure in the aggregate, but group probability estimates had substantial margins of error and individual probability estimates had very large margins of error. We conclude that, without major advances in our understanding of the causes of violence, ARAIs cannot be used to estimate the specific probability or absolute likelihood of future violence with any reasonable degree of precision or certainty. The implications for conducting violence risk assessments in forensic mental health are discussed.

  7. On the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crane, R. K.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs from a presentation on the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction is presented. Topics covered include: link failure - attenuation exceeding a specified threshold for a specified time interval or intervals; risk - the probability of one or more failures during the lifetime of the link or during a specified accounting interval; the problem - modeling the probability of attenuation by rainfall to provide a prediction of the attenuation threshold for a specified risk; and an accounting for the inadequacy of a model or models.

  8. A simple procedure for estimating pseudo risk ratios from exposure to non-carcinogenic chemical mixtures.

    PubMed

    Scinicariello, Franco; Portier, Christopher

    2016-03-01

    Non-cancer risk assessment traditionally assumes a threshold of effect, below which there is a negligible risk of an adverse effect. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry derives health-based guidance values known as Minimal Risk Levels (MRLs) as estimates of the toxicity threshold for non-carcinogens. Although the definition of an MRL, as well as EPA reference dose values (RfD and RfC), is a level that corresponds to "negligible risk," they represent daily exposure doses or concentrations, not risks. We present a new approach to calculate the risk at exposure to specific doses for chemical mixtures, the assumption in this approach is to assign de minimis risk at the MRL. The assigned risk enables the estimation of parameters in an exponential model, providing a complete dose-response curve for each compound from the chosen point of departure to zero. We estimated parameters for 27 chemicals. The value of k, which determines the shape of the dose-response curve, was moderately insensitive to the choice of the risk at the MRL. The approach presented here allows for the calculation of a risk from a single substance or the combined risk from multiple chemical exposures in a community. The methodology is applicable from point of departure data derived from quantal data, such as data from benchmark dose analyses or from data that can be transformed into probabilities, such as lowest-observed-adverse-effect level. The individual risks are used to calculate risk ratios that can facilitate comparison and cost-benefit analyses of environmental contamination control strategies.

  9. Mobile Applications for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Estimation: a Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Fijacko, Nino; Brzan, Petra Povalej; Stiglic, Gregor

    2015-10-01

    Screening for chronical diseases like type 2 diabetes can be done using different methods and various risk tests. This study present a review of type 2 diabetes risk estimation mobile applications focusing on their functionality and availability of information on the underlying risk calculators. Only 9 out of 31 reviewed mobile applications, featured in three major mobile application stores, disclosed the name of risk calculator used for assessing the risk of type 2 diabetes. Even more concerning, none of the reviewed applications mentioned that they are collecting the data from users to improve the performance of their risk estimation calculators or offer users the descriptive statistics of the results from users that already used the application. For that purpose the questionnaires used for calculation of risk should be upgraded by including the information on the most recent blood sugar level measurements from users. Although mobile applications represent a great future potential for health applications, developers still do not put enough emphasis on informing the user of the underlying methods used to estimate the risk for a specific clinical condition.

  10. Sensitivity of risk estimates to wildlife bioaccumulation factors in ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karustis, C.G.; Brewer, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    The concept of conservatism in risk assessment is well established. However, overly conservative assumptions may result in risk estimates that incorrectly predict remediation goals. Therefore, realistic assumptions should be applied in risk assessment whenever possible. A sensitivity analysis was performed on conservative (i.e. bioaccumulation factor = 1) and scientifically-derived wildlife bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) utilized to calculate risks during a terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA). In the first approach, 100% bioaccumulation of contaminants was assumed to estimate the transfer of contaminants through the terrestrial food chain. In the second approach, scientifically-derived BAFs were selected from the literature. For one of the measurement species selected, total risks calculated during the first approach were higher than those calculated during the second approach by two orders of magnitude. However, potential risks due to individual contaminants were not necessarily higher using the conservative approach. Potential risk due to contaminants with low actual bioaccumulation were exaggerated while potential risks due to contaminants with greater than 100% bioaccumulation were underestimated. Therefore, the use of a default of 100% bioaccumulation (BAF = 1) for all contaminants encountered during an ERA could result in cases where contaminants are incorrectly identified as risk drivers, and the calculation of incorrect ecological risk-based cleanup goals. The authors suggest using site-specific or literature-derived BAFs whenever possible and realistic BAF estimates, based upon factors such as log K{sub ow}, when BAFs are unavailable.

  11. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  12. Health Watch exposure estimates: do they underestimate benzene exposure?

    PubMed

    Glass, D C; Gray, C N; Jolley, D J; Gibbons, C; Sim, M R

    2005-05-30

    A nested case-control study found that the excess of leukemia, identified among the male members of the Health Watch cohort, was associated with benzene exposure. Exposure had been retrospectively estimated for each individual occupational history using an algorithm in a relational database. Benzene exposure measurements, supplied by Australian petroleum companies, were used to estimate exposure for specific tasks. The tasks carried out within each job, the products handled, and the technology used, were identified from structured interviews with contemporary colleagues. More than half of the subjects started work after 1965 and had an average exposure period of 20 years. Exposure was low; nearly 85% of the cumulative exposure estimates were at or below 10 ppm-years. Matched analyses showed that leukemia risk increased with increasing cumulative benzene exposures and with increasing exposure intensity of the highest-exposed job. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma were not associated with benzene exposure. A reanalysis reported here, showed that for the 7 leukemia case-sets with greater than 16 ppm-years cumulative exposure, the odds ratio was 51.9 (5.6-477) when compared to the 2 lowest exposed categories combined to form a new reference category. The addition of occasional high exposures, e.g. as a result of spillages, increased exposure for 25% of subjects but for most, the increase was less than 5% of total exposure. The addition of these exposures reduced the odds ratios. Cumulative exposures did not range as high as those in comparable studies; however, the recent nature of the cohort and local handling practices can explain these differences.

  13. Refining estimates of public health spending as measured in national health expenditure accounts: the Canadian experience.

    PubMed

    Ballinger, Geoff

    2007-01-01

    The recent focus on public health stemming from, among other things, severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian flu has created an imperative to refine health-spending estimates in the Canadian Health Accounts. This article presents the Canadian experience in attempting to address the challenges associated with developing the needed taxonomies for systematically capturing, measuring, and analyzing the national investment in the Canadian public health system. The first phase of this process was completed in 2005, which was a 2-year project to estimate public health spending based on a more classic definition by removing the administration component of the previously combined public health and administration category. Comparing the refined public health estimate with recent data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development still positions Canada with the highest share of total health expenditure devoted to public health than any other country reporting. The article also provides an analysis of the comparability of public health estimates across jurisdictions within Canada as well as a discussion of the recommendations for ongoing improvement of public health spending estimates. The Canadian Institute for Health Information is an independent, not-for-profit organization that provides Canadians with essential statistics and analysis on the performance of the Canadian health system, the delivery of healthcare, and the health status of Canadians. The Canadian Institute for Health Information administers more than 20 databases and registries, including Canada's Health Accounts, which tracks historically 40 categories of health spending by 5 sources of finance for 13 provincial and territorial jurisdictions. Until 2005, expenditure on public health services in the Canadian Health Accounts included measures to prevent the spread of communicable disease, food and drug safety, health inspections, health promotion, community mental health programs, public

  14. Changes in cardiovascular disease risk and behavioural risk factors before the introduction of a health check programme in England.

    PubMed

    Alageel, Samah; Wright, Alison J; Gulliford, Martin C

    2016-10-01

    A population-based programme of health checks was introduced for adults in England in 2011 for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and risk factors management. The aim was to evaluate changes in cardiovascular risk and behavioural risk factors in a health check eligible population in England from 1994 to 2013, by using repeated cross-sectional design using seven surveys of the Health Survey for England. Measures included traditional CVD risk factors and behavioural risk factors. Linear trends were estimated allowing for sampling design. The surveys comprised 49,805 adults aged 45 to 74years; 30,639 were free from cardiovascular comorbidity; 16,041 (52%) had complete data for quantitative risk factors. Between 1994 and 2013, systolic blood pressure decreased by 3.1 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 3.6) mmHg per decade in men and 5.0 (4.5 to 5.5) in women. Total cholesterol decreased by 0.20 (0.16 to 0.24) mmol/l per decade in men; 0.23 (0.19 to 0.26) in women. Smoking declined by 6% (5% to 8%) per decade in men; 7% (6% - 8%) in women. The proportion with CVD-risk ≥20% declined by 6.8% per decade in men; 2.4% in women. Multiple behavioural risk factors were strongly associated with estimated CVD-risk, but improving trends in traditional CVD risk factors were inconsistent with increasing indicators of adiposity. Long-term declines in traditional risk factors contributed to reductions in estimated CVD-risk prior to the introduction of a health check programme. Behaviour change interventions for multiple risk factor exposures remain a key area for future research.

  15. Sleep Characteristics, Mental Health, and Diabetes Risk

    PubMed Central

    Boyko, Edward J.; Seelig, Amber D.; Jacobson, Isabel G.; Hooper, Tomoko I.; Smith, Besa; Smith, Tyler C.; Crum-Cianflone, Nancy F.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Research has suggested that a higher risk of type 2 diabetes associated with sleep characteristics exists. However, studies have not thoroughly assessed the potential confounding effects of mental health conditions associated with alterations in sleep. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We prospectively assessed the association between sleep characteristics and self-reported incident diabetes among Millennium Cohort Study participants prospectively followed over a 6-year time period. Surveys are administered approximately every 3 years and collect self-reported data on demographics, height, weight, lifestyle, features of military service, sleep, clinician-diagnosed diabetes, and mental health conditions assessed by the PRIME-MD Patient Health Questionnaire and the PTSD Checklist–Civilian Version. Statistical methods for longitudinal data were used for data analysis. RESULTS We studied 47,093 participants (mean 34.9 years of age; mean BMI 26.0 kg/m2; 25.6% female). During 6 years of follow-up, 871 incident diabetes cases occurred (annual incidence 3.6/1,000 person-years). In univariate analyses, incident diabetes was significantly more likely among participants with self-reported trouble sleeping, sleep duration <6 h, and sleep apnea. Participants reporting incident diabetes were also significantly older, of nonwhite race, of higher BMI, less likely to have been deployed, and more likely to have reported baseline symptoms of panic, anxiety, posttraumatic stress disorder, and depression. After adjusting for covariates, trouble sleeping (odds ratio 1.21 [95% CI 1.03–1.42]) and sleep apnea (1.78 [1.39–2.28]) were significantly and independently related to incident diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Trouble sleeping and sleep apnea predict diabetes risk independent of mental health conditions and other diabetes risk factors. PMID:23835691

  16. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-12-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports.

  17. Estimated long-term health effects

    SciTech Connect

    Cardis, F.; Okeanov, A.E.; Likthariev, I.; Prisyazhniuk; Anspaugh, L.R.; Mabuchi, K.; Ivanov, V.K.

    1996-04-01

    Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer in those exposed as children, there is no evidence to date of a major public health impact of the radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident in the three most affected countries. Although some increases in the frequency of cancer in exposed populations have been reported, these results are difficult to interpret, mainly because of differences in the intensity and method of follow-up between exposed populations and the general population to which they are compared. If the experience of atomic bomb survivors and of other exposed populations is applicable, the major radiological impact of the accident will be cancer and the total lifetime numbers of excess cancers will be greatest among the liquidators and among the residents of contaminated territories, of the order of 2,000 to 2,500. These increases would be difficult to detect epidemiologically against an expected background number of 41,500 and 433,000 respectively (size of the exposed populations: 200,000 and 3,700,000, respectively). It is noted, however, that the exposures received by populations exposed as a result of Chernobyl are different (in type and pattern) from those of atomic bomb survivors. Predictions derived from these populations are therefore uncertain. Indeed, the extent of the increase in thyroid cancer incidence in persons exposed as children was not foreseen. In addition, only ten years have passed since the accident. It is essential therefore that monitoring of the health of the population be continued in order to assess the public health impact of the accident, even if, apart from leukemia among liquidators, little detectable increase of cancers due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident is expected.

  18. Estimation of myocardial volume at risk from CT angiography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liangjia; Gao, Yi; Mohan, Vandana; Stillman, Arthur; Faber, Tracy; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2011-03-01

    The determination of myocardial volume at risk distal to coronary stenosis provides important information for prognosis and treatment of coronary artery disease. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework for estimating the myocardial volume at risk in computed tomography angiography (CTA) imagery. Initially, epicardial and endocardial surfaces, and coronary arteries are extracted using an active contour method. Then, the extracted coronary arteries are projected onto the epicardial surface, and each point on this surface is associated with its closest coronary artery using the geodesic distance measurement. The likely myocardial region at risk on the epicardial surface caused by a stenosis is approximated by the region in which all its inner points are associated with the sub-branches distal to the stenosis on the coronary artery tree. Finally, the likely myocardial volume at risk is approximated by the volume in between the region at risk on the epicardial surface and its projection on the endocardial surface, which is expected to yield computational savings over risk volume estimation using the entire image volume. Furthermore, we expect increased accuracy since, as compared to prior work using the Euclidean distance, we employ the geodesic distance in this work. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on pig heart CTA datasets.

  19. Health-risk behaviors in early adolescence.

    PubMed

    Rew, Lynn; Horner, Sharon D; Brown, Adama

    2011-01-01

    The major morbidities and mortalities of adolescents are related to preventable risky behaviors, but how, when, and in whom these behaviors develop in early adolescence is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine which set of risk factors and protective resources of school-age children were best predictors of health-risk behaviors in early adolescence. A longitudinal, cohort sequential design was used with a diverse sample of 1,934 children in grades 4 through 8. Parents provided demographic and neighborhood data for children through a mailed survey. Children completed valid scales annually at schools, using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing (A-CASI) technology. Significant gender and racial/ethnic differences were found in carrying a weapon and using alcohol. Higher perceived levels of stress increased the risk for alcohol use as did riding in a car with a driver who was drinking. Health behaviors exhibited while in 4th through 6th grades protected early adolescents from alcohol use and riding in a car with a driver who was drinking. A parent's education and perceived safety in neighborhood protected against carrying a weapon and smoking. Many findings are similar to those of national samples, but others show positive differences in this localized sample, over 50% of whom were Latino. Protective resources suggest numerous nursing interventions to promote healthy adolescent development.

  20. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    PubMed

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.

  1. Estimating Non-stationary Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, X.; Cohn, T. A.; Stedinger, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Flood risk is usually described by a probability distribution for annual maximum streamflow which is assumed not to change with time. Federal, state and local governments in the United States are demanding guidance on flood frequency estimates that account for climate change. If a trend exists in peak flow series, ignoring it could result in large quantile estimator bias, while trying to estimate a trend will increase the flood quantile estimator's variance. Thus the issue is, what bias-variance tradeoff should we accept? This paper discusses approaches to flood frequency analysis (FFA) when flood series have trends. GCMs describe how annual runoff might vary over sub-continental scales, but this information is nearly useless for FFA in small watersheds. A LP3 Monte Carlo analysis and a re-sampling study of 100-year flood estimation (25- and 50-year projections) compares the performance of five methods: FFA as prescribed in national guidelines (Bulletin 17B), assumes the flood series is stationary and follows a log-Pearson type III (LP3) distribution; Fitting a LP3 distribution with time-varying parameters that include future trends in mean and perhaps variance, where slopes are assumed known; Fitting a LP3 distribution with time-varying parameters that capture future trends in mean and perhaps variance, where slopes are estimated from annual peak flow series; Employing only the most recent 30 years of flood records to fit a LP3 distribution; Applying a safety factor to the 100-year flood estimator (e.g. 25% increase). The 100-year flood estimator of method 2 has the smallest log-space mean squared error, though it is unlikely that the true trend would be known. Method 3 is only recommended over method 1 for large trends (≥ 0.5% per year). The 100-year flood estimators of method 1, 4, and 5 often have poor accuracy. Clearly, flood risk assessment will be a challenge in an uncertain world.

  2. Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risks?

    PubMed

    Hartog, Jeroen Johan de; Boogaard, Hanna; Nijland, Hans; Hoek, Gerard

    2011-12-01

    Although from a societal point of view a modal shift from car to bicycle may have beneficial health effects due to decreased air pollution emissions and increased levels of physical activity, shifts in individual adverse health effects such as higher exposure to air pollution and risk of a traffic accident may prevail. We have summarized the literature for air pollution, traffic accidents, and physical activity using systematic reviews supplemented with recent key studies. We quantified the impact on all-cause mortality when 500,000 people would make a transition from car to bicycle for short trips on a daily basis in the Netherlands. We estimate that beneficial effects of increased physical activity are substantially larger (3-14 months gained) than the potential mortality effect of increased inhaled air pollution doses (0.8-40 days lost) and the increase in traffic accidents (5-9 days lost). Societal benefits are even larger because of a modest reduction in air pollution and traffic accidents. On average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting their mode of transport.

  3. Risk assessment in diabetes management: how do general practitioners estimate risks due to diabetes?

    PubMed Central

    Häussler, Bertram; Fischer, Gisela C; Meyer, Sibylle; Sturm, Diethard

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the ability of general practitioners (GPs) in Germany to estimate the risk of patients with diabetes developing complications. Methods An interview study using a structured questionnaire to estimate risks of four case vignettes having diabetes‐specific complications within the next 10 years, risk reduction and life expectancy potential. A representative random sample of 584 GPs has been drawn, of which 150 could be interviewed. We compared GPs' estimates among each other (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Cohen's (multirater‐) κ) and with risks for long‐term complications generated by the multifactor disease model “Mellibase”, which is a knowledge‐based support system for medical decision management. Results The risk estimates by GPs varied widely (ICC 0.21 95% CI (0.13 to 0.36)). The average level of potential risk reduction was between 47% and 70%. Compared with Mellibase values, on average, the GPs overestimated the risk threefold. Mean estimates of potential prolongation of life expectancy were close to 10 years for each patient, whereas the Mellibase calculations ranged from 3 to 10 years. Conclusions Overestimation could lead to unnecessary care and waste of resources. PMID:17545348

  4. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W.

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  5. Respiratory health risks among nonmetal miners

    SciTech Connect

    Short, S.R.; Petsonk, E.L. )

    1993-01-01

    The risks of occupational respiratory disease faced by nonmetal miners are the focus of this review. An understanding of the respiratory risks requires an understanding of the minerology of the ground and rock around the materials being mined. Relevant exposures encompass radon gas and deisel fumes, as well as mineral and rock dusts, including free silica. The types of materials mined and their associated health effects are examined, including the silicates (fibrous silicates such as asbestos, asbestiform fibrous minerals such as wollastonite and fuller's earth, and nonfibrous silicates such as talc and kaolin), sedimentary precipitates such as phosphates, potash, gypsum, and salt, as well as hydrocarbon-containing sedimentary rock such as oil shale. 56 refs.

  6. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  7. Health and safety risks in production agriculture.

    PubMed Central

    Von Essen, S G; McCurdy, S A

    1998-01-01

    Production agriculture is associated with a variety of occupational illnesses and injuries. Agricultural workers are at higher risk of death or disabling injury than most other workers. Traumatic injury commonly occurs from working with machinery or animals. Respiratory illness and health problems from exposures to farm chemicals are major concerns, and dermatoses, hearing loss, certain cancers, and zoonotic infections are important problems. Innovative means of encouraging safe work practices are being developed. Efforts are being made to reach all groups of farmworkers, including migrant and seasonal workers, farm youth, and older farmers. PMID:9795581

  8. Health and safety risks in production agriculture.

    PubMed

    Von Essen, S G; McCurdy, S A

    1998-10-01

    Production agriculture is associated with a variety of occupational illnesses and injuries. Agricultural workers are at higher risk of death or disabling injury than most other workers. Traumatic injury commonly occurs from working with machinery or animals. Respiratory illness and health problems from exposures to farm chemicals are major concerns, and dermatoses, hearing loss, certain cancers, and zoonotic infections are important problems. Innovative means of encouraging safe work practices are being developed. Efforts are being made to reach all groups of farmworkers, including migrant and seasonal workers, farm youth, and older farmers.

  9. Residential metal contamination and potential health risks of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Potosí, Bolivia, is the site of centuries of historic and present-day mining of the Cerro Rico Mountain, known for its rich polymetallic deposits, and was the site of large-scale Colonial era silver refining operations, both of which have left a legacy of pollution. In this study, trace elements were quantified in adobe brick, dirt floor, and surface dust samples from 49 houses. Mean concentrations of total mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and arsenic (As) were statistically significantly greater than concentrations measured in Sucre, Bolivia, a non-mining town used as a reference site, and exceeded US-based soil screening levels that are designed to be protective of human health. Adobe brick samples were analyzed for bioaccessible concentrations of elements using a simulated gastric fluid (GF) extraction. Mean GF extractable concentrations of Hg, As, and Pb were 0.841, 14.9, and 30.2 percent of the total concentration, respectively. Total and GF extractable concentrations of these elements were used to estimate exposure and potential health risks to children following incidental ingestion of adobe brick particles. Risks were assessed using a range of potential ingestion rates (50-1000 mg/day). Although the majority of households have total Hg, As, and Pb concentrations that represent a potential health risk, fewer are of concern when GF extractable concentrations are considered at lower ingestion rates. For Hg, only a small percentage of the sampled houses have GF ex

  10. Attributable Risk Estimate of Severe Psoriasis on Major Cardiovascular Events

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Nehal N.; Yu, YiDing; Pinnelas, Rebecca; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram; Shin, Daniel B.; Troxel, Andrea B.; Gelfand, Joel M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Recent studies suggest that psoriasis, particularly if severe, may be a risk factor for major adverse cardiac events such as myocardial infarction, stroke, and mortality from cardiovascular disease. We compared the risk of major adverse cardiac events between patients with psoriasis and the general population and estimated the attributable risk of severe psoriasis. Methods We performed a cohort study in the General Practice Research Database. Severe psoriasis was defined as receiving a psoriasis diagnosis and systemic therapy (N=3,603). Up to 4 patients without psoriasis were selected from the same practices and start dates for each patient with psoriasis (N=14,330). Results Severe psoriasis was a risk factor for major adverse cardiac events (hazard ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.26, 1.85) after adjusting for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use and hyperlipidemia. After fully adjusted analysis, severe psoriasis conferred an additional 6.2% absolute risk of 10-year major adverse cardiac events. Conclusions Severe psoriasis confers an additional 6.2% absolute risk of 10-year rate of major adverse cardiac events compared to the general population. This potentially has important therapeutic implications for cardiovascular risk stratification and prevention in patients with severe psoriasis. Future prospective studies are needed to validate these findings. PMID:21787906

  11. Estimation of earthquake risk curves of physical building damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raschke, Mathias; Janouschkowetz, Silke; Fischer, Thomas; Simon, Christian

    2014-05-01

    In this study, a new approach to quantify seismic risks is presented. Here, the earthquake risk curves for the number of buildings with a defined physical damage state are estimated for South Africa. Therein, we define the physical damage states according to the current European macro-seismic intensity scale (EMS-98). The advantage of such kind of risk curve is that its plausibility can be checked more easily than for other types. The earthquake risk curve for physical building damage can be compared with historical damage and their corresponding empirical return periods. The number of damaged buildings from historical events is generally explored and documented in more detail than the corresponding monetary losses. The latter are also influenced by different economic conditions, such as inflation and price hikes. Further on, the monetary risk curve can be derived from the developed risk curve of physical building damage. The earthquake risk curve can also be used for the validation of underlying sub-models such as the hazard and vulnerability modules.

  12. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  13. Estimate of the risks of disposing nonhazardous oil field wastes into salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-12-31

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. Potential human health risks associated with hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) in NOW were assessed under four postclosure cavern release scenarios: inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks or leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. To estimate potential human health risks for these scenarios, contaminant concentrations at the receptor were calculated using a one-dimensional solution to an advection/dispersion equation that included first order degradation. Assuming a single, generic salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, the best-estimate excess cancer risks ranged from 1.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}12} to 1.1 {times} 10{sup {minus}8} and hazard indices (referring to noncancer health effects) ranged from 7 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} to 7 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}. Under worse-case conditions in which the probability of cavern failure is 1.0, excess cancer risks ranged from 4.9 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} to 1.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} and hazard indices ranged from 7.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} to 0.07. Even under worst-case conditions, the risks are within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure levels. From a human health risk perspective, salt caverns can, therefore, provide an acceptable disposal method for NOW.

  14. Measuring the relationship between employees' health risk factors and corporate pharmaceutical expenditures.

    PubMed

    Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Conti, Daniel J; Schultz, Alyssa B; Edington, Dee W

    2003-08-01

    This study demonstrates the relationship between self-reported health risk factors on a health risk appraisal and pharmaceutical expenditures for a large employer. A total of 3554 employees who were participants in a pharmacy benefit plan for the entire year of 2000 completed a health risk appraisal. As the number of self-reported health risk factors increased from zero to six or more, corporate pharmaceutical costs increased in a stepwise manner: US dollars 345, 443, 526, 567, 750, 754, and 1121 US dollars, respectively. After controlling for age, gender, and the number of self-reported diseases, each additional risk factor was associated with an average annual increase in pharmacy claims costs of 76 US dollars per employee. Specific health risks were associated with significantly higher expenditures. The results provide estimates of incremental expenditures associated with common, potentially modifiable risk factors. Pharmaceutical expenditures should be considered by corporations in their estimates of total health-related costs and in prioritizing disease management initiatives based on health risk appraisal data.

  15. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  16. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  17. Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

    PubMed

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

    2015-05-18

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

  18. Worldwide Exposures to Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Associated Health Effects: Current Knowledge and Data Gaps.

    PubMed

    Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Elliott, Paul; Kontis, Vasilis; Ezzati, Majid

    2016-06-07

    Information on exposure to, and health effects of, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is needed to develop effective strategies to prevent CVD events and deaths. Here, we provide an overview of the data and evidence on worldwide exposures to CVD risk factors and the associated health effects. Global comparative risk assessment studies have estimated that hundreds of thousands or millions of CVD deaths are attributable to established CVD risk factors (high blood pressure and serum cholesterol, smoking, and high blood glucose), high body mass index, harmful alcohol use, some dietary and environmental exposures, and physical inactivity. The established risk factors plus body mass index are collectively responsible for ≈9.7 million annual CVD deaths, with high blood pressure accounting for more CVD deaths than any other risk factor. Age-standardized CVD death rates attributable to established risk factors plus high body mass index are lowest in high-income countries, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean; they are highest in the region of central and eastern Europe and central Asia. However, estimates of the health effects of CVD risk factors are highly uncertain because there are insufficient population-based data on exposure to most CVD risk factors and because the magnitudes of their effects on CVDs in observational studies are likely to be biased. We identify directions for research and surveillance to better estimate the effects of CVD risk factors and policy options for reducing CVD burden by modifying preventable risk factors.

  19. Public health risk of antimicrobial resistance transfer from companion animals.

    PubMed

    Pomba, Constança; Rantala, Merja; Greko, Christina; Baptiste, Keith Edward; Catry, Boudewijn; van Duijkeren, Engeline; Mateus, Ana; Moreno, Miguel A; Pyörälä, Satu; Ružauskas, Modestas; Sanders, Pascal; Teale, Christopher; Threlfall, E John; Kunsagi, Zoltan; Torren-Edo, Jordi; Jukes, Helen; Törneke, Karolina

    2017-04-01

    Antimicrobials are important tools for the therapy of infectious bacterial diseases in companion animals. Loss of efficacy of antimicrobial substances can seriously compromise animal health and welfare. A need for the development of new antimicrobials for the therapy of multiresistant infections, particularly those caused by Gram-negative bacteria, has been acknowledged in human medicine and a future corresponding need in veterinary medicine is expected. A unique aspect related to antimicrobial resistance and risk of resistance transfer in companion animals is their close contact with humans. This creates opportunities for interspecies transmission of resistant bacteria. Yet, the current knowledge of this field is limited and no risk assessment is performed when approving new veterinary antimicrobials. The objective of this review is to summarize the current knowledge on the use and indications for antimicrobials in companion animals, drug-resistant bacteria of concern among companion animals, risk factors for colonization of companion animals with resistant bacteria and transmission of antimicrobial resistance (bacteria and/or resistance determinants) between animals and humans. The major antimicrobial resistance microbiological hazards originating from companion animals that directly or indirectly may cause adverse health effects in humans are MRSA, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius, VRE, ESBL- or carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae and Gram-negative bacteria. In the face of the previously recognized microbiological hazards, a risk assessment tool could be applied in applications for marketing authorization for medicinal products for companion animals. This would allow the approval of new veterinary medicinal antimicrobials for which risk levels are estimated as acceptable for public health.

  20. Residential building codes, affordability, and health protection: a risk-tradeoff approach.

    PubMed

    Hammitt, J K; Belsky, E S; Levy, J I; Graham, J D

    1999-12-01

    Residential building codes intended to promote health and safety may produce unintended countervailing risks by adding to the cost of construction. Higher construction costs increase the price of new homes and may increase health and safety risks through "income" and "stock" effects. The income effect arises because households that purchase a new home have less income remaining for spending on other goods that contribute to health and safety. The stock effect arises because suppression of new-home construction leads to slower replacement of less safe housing units. These countervailing risks are not presently considered in code debates. We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the approximate magnitude of countervailing risks by combining the income effect with three relatively well understood and significant home-health risks. We estimate that a code change that increases the nationwide cost of constructing and maintaining homes by $150 (0.1% of the average cost to build a single-family home) would induce offsetting risks yielding between 2 and 60 premature fatalities or, including morbidity effects, between 20 and 800 lost quality-adjusted life years (both discounted at 3%) each year the code provision remains in effect. To provide a net health benefit, the code change would need to reduce risk by at least this amount. Future research should refine these estimates, incorporate quantitative uncertainty analysis, and apply a full risk-tradeoff approach to real-world case studies of proposed code changes.

  1. Estimating rural households' willingness to pay for health insurance.

    PubMed

    Asgary, Ali; Willis, Ken; Taghvaei, Ali Akbar; Rafeian, Mojtaba

    2004-10-01

    In many developing countries limited health budgets are a serious problem. Innovative ways to raise funds for the provision of health services, for example, through health care insurance, have a high priority. Health care insurance for rural households shields such patients from unexpected high costs of care. However, there are questions about whether, and how much, rural households are willing to pay to purchase such insurance, as well as the factors determining willingness to pay. In recent years the Iranian government has tried to improve health and medical services to rural areas through a health insurance program. This study was conducted to estimate rural households' demand and willingness to pay for health insurance. A contingent valuation method (CVM) was applied using an iterative bidding game technique. Data has been collected from a sample of 2,139 households across the country.

  2. Cyanobacterial toxins: risk management for health protection

    SciTech Connect

    Codd, Geoffrey A.; Morrison, Louise F.; Metcalf, James S

    2005-03-15

    This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the risk management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles.

  3. [Health risk among workers employed in rubber footwear plant].

    PubMed

    Szubert, Z; Wilczyńska, U; Sobala, W

    2001-01-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the health risk of workers performing specific jobs in the process of the rubber footwear production by defining the cause and length of temporary work disability, as well as mortality causes and level. The analysis was carried out in the groups of workers performing the following jobs: mixing, mill operation, pressing and vulcanizing (A); semi-product preparation and calendaring (B); finishing and sorting (C); production of polyvinyl chloride footwear (D); and auxiliary works (E). The sickness absence study covered all workers (208 men and 315 women) employed in a large rubber footwear company and performing all above-listed jobs in 1995. Standardized sick days ratio was used to analyze the risk of temporary work disability. Mortality rate was estimated on the basis of the results of the cohort study performed in the same company among workers who had worked at least three months during the years 1945-1985. The follow-up continued until 31 December 1997. The present study included sub-cohorts composed of 5628 men and 7197 women, performing jobs listed above. The results of both studies indicated the enhanced risk of cardiovascular diseases among workers employed in the basic phases of the production process. The increased risk of the diseases of the digestive system was observed in men and women employed in: finishing, sorting and packing of the products (group C); in men involved in mixing, pressing and vulcanizing (group A); and in women engaged in auxiliary works (group E). In addition, the enhanced risk of sickness absence due to the diseases of the respiratory, digestive, or genitourinary systems was related to the enhanced risk of death from malignant neoplasms in a given site. The analysis showed that the temporary work disability may be regarded as a parameter useful in early assessment of health effects of the work environmental hazards.

  4. Improved risk estimates for carbon tetrachloride. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.; Springer, D.L.; Thrall, K.D.

    1998-06-01

    'The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the cancer risk associated with human exposure to carbon tetrachloride. Specifically, the toxicokinetics of inhaled carbon tetrachloride is being determined in rats, mice and hamsters. Species differences in the metabolism of carbon tetrachloride by rats, mice and hamsters is being determined in vivo and in vitro using tissues and microsomes from these rodent species and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all studies. The information will be used to improve the current physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for carbon tetrachloride. The authors will also determine whether carbon tetrachloride is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the results of these studies will provide the types of information needed to enable a refined risk estimate for carbon tetrachloride under EPA''s new guidelines for cancer risk assessment.'

  5. Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durante, M.; Bonassi, S.; George, K.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2001-01-01

    The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

  6. Estimation of tuberculosis risk on a commercial airliner.

    PubMed

    Ko, Gwangpyo; Thompson, Kimberly M; Nardell, Edward A

    2004-04-01

    This article estimates the risk of tuberculosis (TB) transmission on a typical commercial airliner using a simple one box model (OBM) and a sequential box model (SBM). We used input data derived from an actual TB exposure on an airliner, and we assumed a hypothetical scenario that a highly infectious TB source case (i.e., 108 infectious quanta per hour) travels as a passenger on an 8.7-hour flight. We estimate an average risk of TB transmission on the order of 1 chance in 1,000 for all passengers using the OBM. Applying the more realistic SBM, we show that the risk and incidence decrease sharply in a stepwise fashion in cabins downstream from the cabin containing the source case assuming some potential for airflow from more contaminated to less contaminated cabins. We further characterized spatial variability in the risk within the cabin by modeling a previously reported TB outbreak in an airplane to demonstrate that the TB cases occur most likely within close proximity of the source TB patient.

  7. [Mass gatherings - health risks and preventive strategies].

    PubMed

    Steffen, Robert

    2013-06-01

    Experience from mass gatherings - usually attended by at least 25'000 persons - shows that approximately one in a thousand participants will consult with an on-site medical emergency service. Communicable diseases usually play a minor role. Historically outbreaks of meningococcal disease were recorded after the hajj, but this has been well controlled in the past few years subsequent to vaccinations and other measures required by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia health authorities. Major stress of the regional public health system is associated with accidents and non-communicable diseases, the majority being trivial. Host and environmental risk factors can result in a dramatic increase in the rate of consultations: Age and pre-existing illness play a decisive role particularly in pilgrims, be that in Mecca or Lourdes. Emotional factors may influence behavior; aggressions can develop. Alcohol and drugs, also the duration of an event may play a decisive role. Extreme climatic conditions, both heat and cold, also exhaustion result in a dramatic increase of emergency consultations. Infrastructure must be adapted for the crowd size, particularly stampede associated disasters can be avoided. The World Health Organization and other interested expert groups have in the past few years formulated interdisciplinary programs for prevention.

  8. Health risks for marine mammal workers.

    PubMed

    Hunt, Tania D; Ziccardi, Michael H; Gulland, Frances M D; Yochem, Pamela K; Hird, David W; Rowles, Teresa; Mazet, Jonna A K

    2008-08-19

    Marine mammals can be infected with zoonotic pathogens and show clinical signs of disease, or be asymptomatic carriers of such disease agents. While isolated cases of human disease from contact with marine mammals have been reported, no evaluation of the risks associated with marine mammal work has been attempted. Therefore, we designed a survey to estimate the risk of work-related injuries and illnesses in marine mammal workers and volunteers. The 17-question survey asked respondents to describe their contact with marine mammals, injuries sustained, and/or illnesses acquired during their period of marine mammal exposure. Most respondents, 88% (423/483), were researchers and rehabilitators. Of all respondents, 50% (243/483) reported suffering an injury caused by a marine mammal, and 23% (110/483) reported having a skin rash or reaction. Marine mammal work-related illnesses commonly reported included: 'seal finger' (Mycoplasma spp. or Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae), conjunctivitis, viral dermatitis, bacterial dermatitis, and non-specific contact dermatitis. Although specific diagnoses could not be confirmed by a physician through this study, severe illnesses were reported and included tuberculosis, leptospirosis, brucellosis, and serious sequelae to seal finger. Risk factors associated with increased odds of injury and illness included prolonged and frequent exposure to marine mammals; direct contact with live marine mammals; and contact with tissue, blood, and excretions. Diagnosis of zoonotic disease was often aided by veterinarians; therefore, workers at risk should be encouraged to consult with a marine mammal veterinarian as well as a physician, especially if obtaining a definitive diagnosis for an illness becomes problematic.

  9. Human health risks in megacities due to air pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurjar, B. R.; Jain, A.; Sharma, A.; Agarwal, A.; Gupta, P.; Nagpure, A. S.; Lelieveld, J.

    2010-11-01

    This study evaluates the health risks in megacities in terms of mortality and morbidity due to air pollution. A new spreadsheet model, Risk of Mortality/Morbidity due to Air Pollution (Ri-MAP), is used to estimate the excess numbers of deaths and illnesses. By adopting the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline concentrations for the air pollutants SO 2, NO 2 and total suspended particles (TSP), concentration-response relationships and a population attributable-risk proportion concept are employed. Results suggest that some megacities like Los Angeles, New York, Osaka Kobe, Sao Paulo and Tokyo have very low excess cases in total mortality from these pollutants. In contrast, the approximate numbers of cases is highest in Karachi (15,000/yr) characterized by a very high concentration of total TSP (˜670 μg m -3). Dhaka (7000/yr), Beijing (5500/yr), Karachi (5200/yr), Cairo (5000/yr) and Delhi (3500/yr) rank highest with cardiovascular mortality. The morbidity (hospital admissions) due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) follows the tendency of cardiovascular mortality. Dhaka and Karachi lead the rankings, having about 2100/yr excess cases, while Osaka-Kobe (˜20/yr) and Sao Paulo (˜50/yr) are at the low end of all megacities considered. Since air pollution is increasing in many megacities, and our database of measured pollutants is limited to the period up to 2000 and does not include all relevant components (e.g. O 3), these numbers should be interpreted as lower limits. South Asian megacities most urgently need improvement of air quality to prevent excess mortality and morbidity due to exceptionally high levels of air pollution. The risk estimates obtained from Ri-MAP present a realistic baseline evaluation for the consequences of ambient air pollution in comparison to simple air quality indices, and can be expanded and improved in parallel with the development of air pollution monitoring networks.

  10. Occupational Health Promotion Programs to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasgow, Russell E.; Terborg, James R.

    1988-01-01

    Surveys literature on worksite health promotion programs targeting cardiovascular risk factors. Reviews findings on health-risk appraisal, hypertension control, smoking cessation, weight reduction, exercise, and programs addressing multiple risk factors. Discusses current knowledge, highlights exemplary studies, and identifies problems and…

  11. The effects of behavioral risks on absenteeism and health-care costs in the workplace.

    PubMed

    Bertera, R L

    1991-11-01

    The impact of behavioral risk factors on absenteeism and health-care costs was analyzed among 45,976 employees in a large, diversified industrial work force. A cross-sectional design was used to evaluate health risk appraisal and physical-examination data collected from 1984 through 1988. Employees with any of six behavioral risks had significantly higher absenteeism (range = 10% to 32%) compared with those without risks. These differences led to significantly higher illness costs (defined as compensation, health care, and non-health care benefits) for those with risks compared with those without risks. Annual excess illness costs per person at risk were smoking, $960; overweight, $401; excess alcohol, $389; elevated cholesterol, $370; high blood pressure, $343; inadequate seatbelt use, $272; and lack of exercise, $130. Only one factor, lack of exercise, was not significant after adjusting for age, education, pay category, and the six other behavioral risks. The total cost to the company of excess illness was conservatively estimated at $70.8 million annually. These findings suggest that the cost of key behavioral risks provides an opportunity to manage health-care cost increases through health promotion, financial incentives for healthy lifestyle, and environmental changes that affect health behaviors.

  12. What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Rajan, S. Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K.

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large. PMID:23193357

  13. What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

    PubMed

    Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

  14. How Many Significant Figures are Useful for Public Risk Estimates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilde, Paul D.; Duffy, Jim

    2013-09-01

    This paper considers the level of uncertainty in the calculation of public risks from launch or reentry and provides guidance on the number of significant digits that can be used with confidence when reporting the analysis results to decision-makers. The focus of this paper is the uncertainty in collective risk calculations that are used for launches of new and mature ELVs. This paper examines the computational models that are used to estimate total collective risk to the public for a launch, including the model input data and the model results, and characterizes the uncertainties due to both bias and variability. There have been two recent efforts to assess the uncertainty in state-of-the-art risk analysis models used in the US and their input data. One assessment focused on launch area risk from an Atlas V at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) and the other focused on downrange risk to Eurasia from a Falcon 9 launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The results of these studies quantified the uncertainties related to both the probability and the consequence of the launch debris hazards. This paper summarizes the results of both of these relatively comprehensive launch risk uncertainty analyses, which addressed both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The epistemic uncertainties of most concern were associated with probability of failure and the debris list. Other major sources of uncertainty evaluated were: the casualty area for people in shelters that are impacted by debris, impact distribution size, yield from exploding propellant and propellant tanks, probability of injury from a blast wave for people in shelters or outside, and population density. This paper also summarizes a relatively comprehensive over-flight risk uncertainty analysis performed by the FAA for the second stage of flight for a Falcon 9 from CCAFS. This paper is applicable to baseline collective risk analyses, such as those used to make a commercial license determination, and

  15. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  16. Distribution and potential health risk of groundwater uranium in Korea.

    PubMed

    Shin, Woosik; Oh, Jungsun; Choung, Sungwook; Cho, Byong-Wook; Lee, Kwang-Sik; Yun, Uk; Woo, Nam-Chil; Kim, Hyun Koo

    2016-11-01

    Chronic exposure even to extremely low specific radioactivity of natural uranium in groundwater results in kidney problems and potential toxicity in bones. This study was conducted to assess the potential health risk via intake of the groundwater containing uranium, based on the determination of the uranium occurrence in groundwater. The groundwater was investigated from a total of 4140 wells in Korea. Most of the groundwater samples showed neutral pH and (sub-)oxic condition that was influenced by the mixing with shallow groundwater due to long-screened (open) wells. High uranium contents exceeding the WHO guideline level of 30 μg L(-1) were observed in the 160 wells located mainly in the plutonic bedrock regions. The statistical analysis suggested that the uranium component was present in groundwater by desorption and re-dissolution processes. Predominant uranium phases were estimated to uranyl carbonates under the Korean groundwater circumstances. These mobile forms of uranium and oxic condition facilitate the increase of potential health risk downgradient. In particular, long-term intake of groundwater containing >200 μg U L(-1) may induce internal exposure to radiation as well as the effects of chemical toxicity. These high uranium concentrations were found in twenty four sampling wells of rural areas in this study, and they were mainly used for drinking. Therefore, the high-level uranium wells and neighboring areas must be properly managed and monitored to reduce the exposure risk for the residents by drinking groundwater.

  17. Human health risk assessment from arsenic exposures in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Joseph, Tijo; Dubey, Brajesh; McBean, Edward A

    2015-09-15

    High arsenic exposures, prevalent through dietary and non-dietary sources in Bangladesh, present a major health risk to the public. A quantitative human health risk assessment is described as a result of arsenic exposure through food and water intake, tea intake, accidental soil ingestion, and chewing of betel quid, while people meet their desirable dietary intake requirements throughout their lifetime. In evaluating the contribution of each intake pathway to average daily arsenic intake, the results show that food and water intake combined, makes up approximately 98% of the daily arsenic intake with the balance contributed to by intake pathways such as tea consumption, soil ingestion, and quid consumption. Under an exposure scenario where arsenic concentration in water is at the WHO guideline (0.01 mg/L), food intake is the major arsenic intake pathway ranging from 67% to 80% of the average daily arsenic intake. However, the contribution from food drops to a range of 29% to 45% for an exposure scenario where arsenic in water is at the Bangladesh standard (0.05 mg/L). The lifetime excess risk of cancer occurrence from chronic arsenic exposure, considering a population of 160 million people, based on an exposure scenario with 85 million people at the WHO guideline value and 75 million people at the Bangladesh standard, and assuming that 35 million people are associated with a heavy activity level, is estimated as 1.15 million cases.

  18. Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

    1995-01-01

    Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

  19. Health behavior changes after genetic risk assessment for Alzheimer disease: The REVEAL Study.

    PubMed

    Chao, Serena; Roberts, J Scott; Marteau, Theresa M; Silliman, Rebecca; Cupples, L Adrienne; Green, Robert C

    2008-01-01

    Risk information for Alzheimer disease (AD) may be communicated through susceptibility gene disclosure, even though this is not currently in clinical use. The REVEAL Study is the first randomized clinical trial of risk assessment for AD with apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype and numerical risk estimate disclosure. We examined whether APOE genotype and numerical risk disclosure to asymptomatic individuals at high risk for AD alters health behaviors. One hundred sixty-two participants were randomized to either intervention (APOE disclosure) or control (no genotype disclosure) groups. Subjects in both groups received numerical lifetime risk estimates of future AD development based on sex and family history of AD. The intervention group received their APOE genotype. Subjects were informed that no proven preventive measures for AD existed and given an information sheet on preventative therapies under investigation. Participants who learned they were epsilon 4 positive were significantly more likely than epsilon 4 negative participants to report AD-specific health behavior change 1 year after disclosure (adjusted odds ratio: 2.73; 95% confidence interval: 1.14, 6.54; P=0.02). Post hoc analyses revealed similar significant associations between numerical lifetime risk estimates and self-report of AD-specific health behavior change. Despite lack of preventive measures for AD, knowledge of APOE genotype, numerical lifetime risk, or both, influences health behavior.

  20. A global human health risk assessment for Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

    PubMed

    Franzen, Allison; Van Landingham, Cynthia; Greene, Tracy; Plotzke, Kathy; Gentry, Robinan

    2016-02-01

    Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) is a low-molecular-weight cyclic siloxane used primarily as an intermediate in the production of several widely-used industrial and consumer products and intentionally added to consumer products, personal products and some dry cleaning solvents. The global use requires consideration of consumer use information and risk assessment requirements from various sources and authoritative bodies. A global "harmonized" risk assessment was conducted to meet requirements for substance-specific risk assessments conducted by regulatory agencies such as USEPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health Canada and various independent scientific committees of the European Commission, as well as provide guidance for chemical safety assessments under REACH in Europe, and other relevant authoritative bodies. This risk assessment incorporates global exposure information combined with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the most significant routes of exposure, utilization of a multi-species, multi-route physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to estimate internal dose metrics, benchmark modeling to determine a point of departure (POD), and a margin of safety (MOS) evaluation to compare the estimates of intake with the POD. Because of the specific pharmacokinetic behaviors of D5 including high lipophilicity, high volatility with low blood-to-air partition coefficients and extensive metabolic clearance that regulate tissue dose after exposure, the use of a PBPK model was essential to provide a comparison of a dose metric that reflects these processes. The characterization of the potential for adverse effects after exposure to D5 using a MOS approach based on an internal dose metric removes the subjective application of uncertainty factors that may be applied across various regulatory agencies and allows examination of the differences between internal dose metrics associated with exposure and those associated with adverse effects.

  1. Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection During Overseas Deployment.

    PubMed

    Mancuso, James D; Geurts, Mia

    2015-12-01

    Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low-0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-2.3%)-and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk.

  2. Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection during Overseas Deployment

    PubMed Central

    Mancuso, James D.; Geurts, Mia

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low—0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1–2.3%)—and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk. PMID:26416114

  3. Leukemia risk associated with benzene exposure in the pliofilm cohort. II. Risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Paxton, M B; Chinchilli, V M; Brett, S M; Rodricks, J V

    1994-04-01

    The detailed work histories of the individual workers composing the Pliofilm cohort represent a unique resource for estimating the dose-response for leukemia that may follow occupational exposure to benzene. In this paper, we report the results of analyzing the updated Pliofilm cohort using the proportional hazards model, a more sophisticated technique that uses more of the available exposure data than the conditional logistic model used by Rinsky et al. The more rigorously defined exposure estimates derived by Paustenbach et al. are consistent with those of Crump and Allen in giving estimates of the slope of the leukemogenic dose-response that are not as steep as the slope resulting from the exposure estimates of Rinsky et al. We consider estimates of 0.3-0.5 additional leukemia deaths per thousand workers with 45 ppm-years of cumulative benzene exposure to be the best estimates currently available of leukemia risk from occupational exposure to benzene. These risks were estimated in the proportional hazards model when the exposure estimates of Crump and Allen or of Paustenbach et al. were used to derive a cumulative concentration-by-time metric.

  4. A Methodological Approach to Small Area Estimation for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Fang; Wallace, Robyn C.; Garvin, William; Greenlund, Kurt J.; Bartoli, William; Ford, Derek; Eke, Paul; Town, G. Machell

    2016-01-01

    Public health researchers have used a class of statistical methods to calculate prevalence estimates for small geographic areas with few direct observations. Many researchers have used Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data as a basis for their models. The aims of this study were to 1) describe a new BRFSS small area estimation (SAE) method and 2) investigate the internal and external validity of the BRFSS SAEs it produced. The BRFSS SAE method uses 4 data sets (the BRFSS, the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Nielsen Claritas population totals, and the Missouri Census Geographic Equivalency File) to build a single weighted data set. Our findings indicate that internal and external validity tests were successful across many estimates. The BRFSS SAE method is one of several methods that can be used to produce reliable prevalence estimates in small geographic areas. PMID:27418213

  5. [Cell phones: health risks and prevention].

    PubMed

    Talamanca, I Figà; Giliberti, C; Salerno, S

    2012-01-01

    The paper describes first of all the electromagnetic radiation of cellular phones and presents the physical parameters used to measure and evaluate the absorption of emissions of radio stations and cellular phones. It then presents selected research results of the experimental studies in vivo and in vitro which examine the biological effects of the emissions of cellular phones. The review of the epidemiologic evidence focuses in particular the epidemiologic studies on the use of cell phones and brain tumours, identifying some of the reasons of the conflicting results obtained. Studies dealing with the health risks involved in the increasing use of cellular phones by adolescents and children, more sensitive to this exposure, are also presented showing the need for special caution. The problem of hypersensitivity observed in some individuals is also briefly discussed. Finally the paper presents a summary of the main prevention measures necessary in order to reduce the risks in the framework of the "precautionary principle" including prevention policies and exposure limits in various countries.

  6. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data.

    PubMed

    Scheike, Thomas H; Holst, Klaus K; Hjelmborg, Jacob B

    2014-03-30

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experienced the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component.

  7. The Relation between Adolescent Self Assessment of Health and Risk Behaviours: Could a Global Measure of Health Provide Indications of Health Risk Exposures?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Walker, Ashley Dawn

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Self-rated health (SRH) has become a key organizing construct for assessing multiple dimensions of populations' physical and psychosocial health functioning. However, it is unclear how adolescents' subjective self assessment of health reflects health risk exposures, co-occurring health risks (problem behaviours) and other pre-existing…

  8. [International adoption: children's health risk evolution].

    PubMed

    Dartiguenave, C

    2012-05-01

    The socioeconomic and sanitary conditions in many countries make it necessary to weigh as precisely as possible the uncertainties which might affect the health of internationally adopted children, which is one of the key drivers to adoption decision. Indeed, health troubles are more and more frequent among children proposed by countries, at a time when there are fewer children to be adopted. Hence the institutions and the actors in the field of international adoption are compelled to frequently update their professional practices, so as to cope both with the declining offer for adoptable children and with the increasing pressure from the birth countries of children to make host countries adopt children with high age or with special needs. It also requires from the administrations the will to provide better initial information and to implement the demand for an agreement. Meanwhile, in spite of those growing constraints, adopting families have been more and more risk adverse during the latest decades, this being a common trend in our developed countries.

  9. Health Risk Assessment for Area 514 RCRA Closure

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G M; Hall, L C

    2005-05-26

    10{sup -3}, and an acute hazard index of 9 x 10{sup -1}. The estimated incremental cancer risk for the residential receptor, 1 x 10{sup -6}, was calculated by adjusting contaminant concentrations to account for background levels of metals at the Livermore LLNL site. When no adjustments for background concentrations are made, the estimated incremental cancer risk is 3 x 10{sup -6}. The chronic hazard index for the residential receptor, 2 x 10{sup -1}, was developed without accounting for background concentrations of metals. These values are all below levels associated with health concerns, and support the conclusion that further cleanup of the area is not necessary.

  10. More Evidence Ties Gum Health to Stroke Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... 163755.html More Evidence Ties Gum Health to Stroke Risk Study shows increasing risk of brain blockage ... as people with healthy gums to suffer a stroke, new research suggests. It's not the first study ...

  11. Health risks due to radon in drinking water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hopke, P.K.; Borak, T.B.; Doull, J.; Cleaver, J.E.; Eckerman, K.F.; Gundersen, L.C.S.; Harley, N.H.; Hess, C.T.; Kinner, N.E.; Kopecky, K.J.; Mckone, T.E.; Sextro, R.G.; Simon, S.L.

    2000-01-01

    Following more than a decade of scientific debate about the setting of a standard for 222Rn in drinking water, Congress established a timetable for the promulgation of a standard in the 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act. As a result of those Amendments, the EPA contracted with the National Academy of Sciences to undertake a risk assessment for exposure to radon in drinking water. In addition, the resulting committee was asked to address several other scientific issues including the national average ambient 222Rn concentration and the increment of 222Rn to the indoor- air concentration arising from the use of drinking water in a home. A new dosimetric analysis of the cancer risk to the stomach from ingestion was performed. The recently reported risk estimates developed by the BEIR VI Committee for inhalation of radon decay products were adopted. Because the 1996 Amendments permit states to develop programs in which mitigation of air- producing health-risk reductions equivalent to that which would be achieved by treating the drinking water, the scientific issues involved in such 'multimedia mitigation programs' were explored.

  12. Health risks due to radon in drinking water

    SciTech Connect

    Hopke, P.K. Borak, T.B.; Doull, J.

    2000-03-15

    Following more than a decade of scientific debate about the setting of a standard for {sup 222}Rn in drinking water, Congress established a timetable for the promulgation of a standard in the 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act. As a result of those Amendments, the EPA contracted with the National Academy of Sciences to undertake a risk assessment for exposure to radon in drinking water. In addition, the resulting committee was asked to address several other scientific issues including the national average ambient {sup 222}Rn concentration and the increment of {sup 222}Rn to the indoor-air concentration arising from the use of drinking water in a home. A new dosimetric analysis of the cancer risk to the stomach from ingestion was performed. The recently reported risk estimates developed by the BEIR VI Committee for inhalation of radon decay products were adopted. Because the 1996 Amendments permit states to develop programs in which mitigation of air-producing health-risk reductions equivalent to that which would be achieved by treating the drinking water, the scientific issues involved in such multimedia mitigation programs were explored.

  13. Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

  14. Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1980-12-01

    The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

  15. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    SciTech Connect

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  16. Accuracy of Parents' Perceptions of Their College Student Children's Health and Health Risk Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bylund, Carma L.; Imes, Rebecca S.; Baxter, Leslie A.

    2005-01-01

    The authors compared parents' perceptions of their college student children's health and health risk behaviors with the college students' own reports. One hundred sixty-four parent-college student child dyads completed questionnaires regarding the students' health, illness status, and health risk behaviors. Parents tended to be overoptimistic…

  17. A probabilistic assessment of health risks associated with short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G; Biller, W.F.; Jusko, M.J.; Keisler, J.M.

    1996-06-01

    The work described in this report is part of a larger risk assessment sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier efforts developed exposure-response relationships for acute health effects among populations engaged in heavy exertion. Those efforts also developed a probabilistic national ambient air quality standards exposure model and a general methodology for integrating probabilistic exposure-response relation- ships and exposure estimates to calculate overall risk results. Recently published data make it possible to model additional health endpoints (for exposure at moderate exertion), including hospital admissions. New air quality and exposure estimates for alternative national ambient air quality standards for ozone are combined with exposure-response models to produce the risk results for hospital admissions and acute health effects. Sample results explain the methodology and introduce risk output formats.

  18. Catalogue of Risks: Natural, Technical, Social and Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2009-01-01

    Financial, geophysical, and terrorist-related disasters have been headline news in the past few months. As amply demonstrated on a regular basis, the recognition and evaluation of risks are skills that could be more widespread. As such, Proske's Catalogue of Risks is timely and of potential interest. The book is a revised and expanded version of an earlier German publication that aims to provide an encyclopedic discussion of issues related to risks and disasters, with a goal of facilitating an understanding of the components and assessment of risk. The book includes chapters that discuss the difficulty of coming to a consensus on a definition of risk, a comprehensive range of risks and disasters, objective risk measures, subjective risk judgment, quality of life measures, and legal aspects of risk. The book ends with an example of applying the concepts discussed to ship impacts against bridges.

  19. Depleted uranium human health risk assessment, Jefferson Proving Ground, Indiana

    SciTech Connect

    Ebinger, M.H.; Hansen, W.R.

    1994-04-29

    The risk to human health from fragments of depleted uranium (DU) at Jefferson Proving Ground (JPG) was estimated using two types of ecosystem pathway models. A steady-state, model of the JPG area was developed to examine the effects of DU in soils, water, and vegetation on deer that were hunted and consumed by humans. The RESRAD code was also used to estimate the effects of farming the impact area and consuming the products derived from the farm. The steady-state model showed that minimal doses to humans are expected from consumption of deer that inhabit the impact area. Median values for doses to humans range from about 1 mrem ({plus_minus}2.4) to 0.04 mrem ({plus_minus}0.13) and translate to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments (excess cancers) in the population. Monte Carlo simulation of the steady-state model was used to derive the probability distributions from which the median values were drawn. Sensitivity analyses of the steady-state model showed that the amount of DU in airborne dust and, therefore, the amount of DU on the vegetation surface, controlled the amount of DU ingested by deer and by humans. Human doses from the RESRAD estimates ranged from less than 1 mrem/y to about 6.5 mrem/y in a hunting scenario and subsistence fanning scenario, respectively. The human doses exceeded the 100 mrem/y dose limit when drinking water for the farming scenario was obtained from the on-site aquifer that was presumably contaminated with DU. The two farming scenarios were unrealistic land uses because the additional risk to humans due to unexploded ordnance in the impact area was not figured into the risk estimate. The doses estimated with RESRAD translated to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments to about 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} detriments. The higher risks were associated only with the farming scenario in which drinking water was obtained on-site.

  20. A Framework for Assessing Uncertainty Associated with Human Health Risks from MSW Landfill Leachate Contamination.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Harshit; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kumar, Rakesh; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-09-24

    Landfilling is a cost-effective method, which makes it a widely used practice around the world, especially in developing countries. However, because of the improper management of landfills, high leachate leakage can have adverse impacts on soils, plants, groundwater, aquatic organisms, and, subsequently, human health. A comprehensive survey of the literature finds that the probabilistic quantification of uncertainty based on estimations of the human health risks due to landfill leachate contamination has rarely been reported. Hence, in the present study, the uncertainty about the human health risks from municipal solid waste landfill leachate contamination to children and adults was quantified to investigate its long-term risks by using a Monte Carlo simulation framework for selected heavy metals. The Turbhe sanitary landfill of Navi Mumbai, India, which was commissioned in the recent past, was selected to understand the fate and transport of heavy metals in leachate. A large residential area is located near the site, which makes the risk assessment problem both crucial and challenging. In this article, an integral approach in the form of a framework has been proposed to quantify the uncertainty that is intrinsic to human health risk estimation. A set of nonparametric cubic splines was fitted to identify the nonlinear seasonal trend in leachate quality parameters. LandSim 2.5, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and further uncertainty in noncarcinogenic human health risk was estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation followed by univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses.

  1. Radiation release and health effects lessons from the Three Mile Island incident: assessment of objective risks for emergency preparedness planning

    SciTech Connect

    Berger, C.D.; Mynatt, F.R.

    1980-01-01

    The accepted theories of radiation health effects are briefly discussed so that the Three Mile Island health effects estimations can be better understood. The author recommends that emergency response planners weigh the objective risks rather than the perceived risks of low-level radiation against those associated with evacuation of large population zones before a final plan is put into effect. (ACR)

  2. 2011 Behavioral Health Risk Assessment Data Report (BH-RADR)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-01

    Approved for public release, distribution unlimited General Medicine: 500A, Public Health Data 2011 Behavioral Health Risk Assessment Data...REPORT DATE 30 SEP 2015 2. REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED 01 JAN 2011 - 31 DEC 2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 2011 Behavioral Health Risk...ABSTRACT This publication describes characteristics of Soldiers who completed a behavioral health (BH) screening at the two post-deployment Touch Points

  3. Waste area Grouping 2 Phase I task data report: Human health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Purucker, S.T.; Douthat, D.M.

    1996-06-01

    This report is one of five reports issued in 1996 that provide follow- up information to the Phase 1 Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The five reports address areas of concern that could cause potential human health risk and ecological risk within WAG2 at ORNL. The purpose of this report is to present a summary of the human health risk assessment results based on the data collected for the WAG 2 Phase 1 RI. Estimates of risk are provided based on measured concentrations in the surface water, floodplain soil, and sediment of White Oak Creek, Melton Branch, and their tributaries. The human health risk assessment methodology used in this risk assessment is based on Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS). First, the data for the different media are elevated to determine usability for risk assessment. Second, through the process of selecting chemicals of potential concern (COPCs), contaminants to be considered in the risk assessment are identified for each assessment of exposure potential is performed, and exposure pathways are identified. Subsequently, exposure is estimated quantitatively, and the toxicity of each of the COPCs is determined. The results of these analyses are combined and summarized in a risk characterization.

  4. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  5. The Effect of Genetic Risk Information and Health Risk Assessment on Compliance with Preventive Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bamberg, Richard; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Results from a study of 82 males provide no statistical support and limited encouragement that genetic risk information may motivate persons to make positive changes in preventive health behaviors. Health risk assessments were used to identify subjects at risk for coronary heart disease or lung cancer because of genetic factors. (IAH)

  6. Implementation of health risk assessments with family health history: barriers and benefits.

    PubMed

    Wu, R Ryanne; Orlando, Lori A

    2015-09-01

    Health risk assessments provide an opportunity to emphasise health promotion and disease prevention for individuals and populations at large. A key component of health risk assessments is the detailed collection of family health history information. This information is helpful in determining risk both for common chronic conditions and more rare diseases as well. While the concept of health risk assessments has been around since the Framingham Heart Study was launched in the 1950s, and such assessments are commonly performed in the workplace today, the US healthcare system has been slow to embrace them and the emphasis on prevention that they represent. Before wider implementation of health risk assessments within healthcare can be seen, several concerns must be addressed: (1) provider impact, (2) patient impact, (3) validity of patient-entered data and (4) health outcomes effect. Here, we describe recent developments in health risk assessment design that are helping to address these issues.

  7. Health risks from acid rain: a Canadian perspective.

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, C A; Burnett, R T; Paolini, R J; Raizenne, M E

    1985-01-01

    Acidic deposition, commonly referred to as acid rain, is causing serious environmental damage in eastern Canada. The revenues from forest products, tourism and sport fishing are estimated to account for about 8% of the gross national product. The impact on human health is not as clearcut and a multi-department program on the Long-Range Transport of Airborne Pollutants (LRTAP) was approved by the federal government in June 1980. The objectives of the LRTAP program are to reduce wet sulfate deposition to less than 20 kg/ha per year in order to protect moderately sensitive areas. This will require a 50% reduction in Canadian SO2 emissions east of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border and concomitant reductions in the eastern U.S.A. The objectives of the health sector of the program are to assess the risk to health posed by airborne pollutants which are subjected to long-range transport and to monitor the influence of abatement programs. Two major epidemiology studies were undertaken in 1983, one in which the health effects related to acute exposure to transported air pollutants were studied in asthmatic and nonasthmatic children, and another in which the effects of chronic exposure to these pollutants were studied in school children living in towns with high and low levels of pollutants. Preliminary analysis of the data do not indicate major health effects, but definitive conclusions must await final analysis. Studies on the indirect effects of acid deposition on water quality have shown that acidified lake water left standing in the plumbing system can adversely affect water quality and that federally set guidelines for copper and lead are exceeded. Flushing of the system before using the water rectifies the situation. Additional studies are planned to further delineate the magnitude of the health effects of acidified lake water. Images FIGURE 1. FIGURE 2. PMID:4076081

  8. Environmental and human health risks of aerosolized silver nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Quadros, Marina E; Marr, Linsey C

    2010-07-01

    Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are gaining attention from the academic and regulatory communities, not only because of their antimicrobial effects and subsequent product applications, but also because of their potential health and environmental risks. Whereas AgNPs in the aqueous phase are under intensive study, those in the atmosphere have been largely overlooked, although it is well established that inhalation of nanoparticles is associated with adverse health effects. This review summarizes the present state of knowledge concerning airborne AgNPs to shed light on the possible environmental exposure scenarios that may accompany the production and popularization of silver nanotechnology consumer products. The current understanding of the toxicity of AgNPs points toward a potential threat via the inhalation exposure route. Nanoparticle size, chemical composition, crystal structure, surface area, and the rate of silver ion release are expected to be important variables in determining toxicity. Possible routes of aerosolization of AgNPs from the production, use, and disposal of existing consumer products are presented. It is estimated that approximately 14% of silver nanotechnology products that have been inventoried could potentially release silver particles into the air during use, whether through spraying, dry powder dispersion, or other methods. In laboratory and industrial settings, six methods of aerosolization have been used to produce airborne AgNPs: spray atomization, liquid-flame spray, thermal evaporation-condensation, chemical vaporization, dry powder dispersion, and manual handling. Fundamental uncertainties remain about the fate of AgNPs in the environment, their short- and long-term health effects, and the specific physical and chemical properties of airborne particles that are responsible for health effects. Thus, to better understand the risks associated with silver nanotechnology, it is vital to understand the conditions under which AgNPs could become

  9. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, B.A.; Williams, R.G.

    1986-01-23

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management.

  10. Estimating the compensating differential for employer-provided health insurance.

    PubMed

    Miller, Richard D

    2004-03-01

    The theory of wage differentials argues that workers must pay for employer-provided group health insurance coverage through lower wages or reductions in other fringe benefits. This paper uses data from the 1988-90 Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) to estimate the wage-health insurance trade-off for male workers between the ages of 25 and 55. A fixed-effects model, which takes advantage of the rotating panel design of the CEX, is used to control for unobservable worker characteristics that are positively related with all forms of compensation, including wage earnings and health insurance coverage. I find a compensating differential for health insurance equal to roughly 10 to 11 percent of wages. Some caution is advised here due to the fact that I was unable to control for other fringe benefits, the most important being paid vacation and sick leave.

  11. BACKGROUND RADIATION MEASUREMENTS AND CANCER RISK ESTIMATES FOR SEBINKARAHISAR, TURKEY.

    PubMed

    Kurnaz, Asli

    2013-07-19

    This paper presents the measurement results of environmental radioactivity levels for Şebinkarahisar district (uranium-thorium area), Giresun, Turkey. The radioactivity concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th, (40)K and the fission product (137)Cs in soil samples collected from 73 regions from the surroundings of the study area were determined. In situ measurements of the gamma dose rate in air were performed in the same 73 locations where the soil samples were collected using a portable NaI detector. Also the mean radioactivity concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K in rock samples collected from 50 regions were determined. The mean estimated cancer risk value was found. The seasonal variations of the indoor radon activity concentrations were determined in the 30 dwellings in the study area. In addition, the mean gross alpha, gross beta and radon activities in tap water samples were determined in the same 30 dwellings. The excess lifetime cancer risk was calculated using the risk factors of International Commission on Radiological Protection and Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation. Radiological maps of the Şebinkarahisar region were composed using the results obtained from this study.

  12. Kalman Filtering with Inequality Constraints for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops two analytic methods of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The first method is a general technique of using hard constraints to enforce inequalities on the state variable estimates. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The second method uses soft constraints to estimate state variables that are known to vary slowly with time. (Soft constraints are constraints that are required to be approximately satisfied rather than exactly satisfied.) The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results. The use of the algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate health parameters. The turbofan engine model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.

  13. Weighing health benefit and health risk information when consuming sport-caught fish.

    PubMed

    Knuth, Barbara A; A Connelly, Nancy; Sheeshka, Judy; Patterson, Jacqueline

    2003-12-01

    Fish consumers may incur benefits and risks from eating fish. Health advisories issued by states, tribes, and other entities typically include advice about how to limit fish consumption or change other behaviors (e.g., fish cleaning or cooking) to reduce health risks from exposure to contaminants. Eating fish, however, may provide health benefits. Risk communicators and fish consumers have suggested the importance of including risk comparison information, as well as health risk-benefit comparisons in health advisory communications. To improve understanding about how anglers fishing in waters affected by health advisories may respond to such risk-risk or risk-benefit information, we surveyed Lake Ontario (NY, USA) anglers. We interviewed by telephone 4,750 anglers, 2,593 of which had fished Lake Ontario in the past 12 months and were sent a detailed mail questionnaire (1,245 responded). We posed questions varying the magnitude of health risks and health benefits to be gained by fish consumption, and varied the population affected by these risks and benefits (anglers, children, women of childbearing age, and unborn children). Respondents were influenced by health benefit and health risk information. When risks were high, most respondents would eat less fish regardless of the benefit level. When risks were low, the magnitude of change in fish consumption was related to level of benefit. Responses differed depending on the question wording order, that is, whether "risks" were posed before "benefits." For a given risk-benefit level, respondents would give different advice to women of childbearing age versus children, with more conservative advice (eat less fish) provided to women of childbearing age. Respondents appeared to be influenced more strongly by risk-risk comparisons (e.g., risks from other foods vs. risks from fish) than by risk-benefit comparisons (e.g., risks from fish vs. benefits from fish). Risk analysts and risk communicators should improve efforts to

  14. Rural Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors: Age, Gender, and Ethnic Differences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salzman, Stephanie A.; Girvan, James T.

    A survey of health risk behaviors was administered to a representative sample of 7,776 Idaho students in grades 8-12. Respondents were 86% White, 6% Hispanic, 4% American Indian, 3% Asian, and 2% Black. These rural adolescents reported that they had engaged in some health risk behaviors at rates comparable to those of other U.S. adolescents: 57%…

  15. TOXICOPROTEOMICS AND ITS APPLICATION TO HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans are exposed to a variety of environmental toxicants, and this together with a large number of interacting factors can contribute to an individual's risk for health. To understand the toxic mechanisms and/or modes of action for human health risk assessment, molecular charac...

  16. Nuclear power — is the health risk too great?

    PubMed Central

    Wynne, B E

    1982-01-01

    Apparently objective and value-free `scientific' assessments of health risks are often highly value-laden and incorporate contentious social assumptions. Mr Wynne exposes some of the complexities underlying attempts to compare the health risks of nuclear and other sources of energy. PMID:7108912

  17. Industrial metal pollution in water and probabilistic assessment of human health risk.

    PubMed

    Saha, Narottam; Rahman, M Safiur; Ahmed, Mohammad Boshir; Zhou, John L; Ngo, Huu Hao; Guo, Wenshan

    2016-10-28

    Concentration of eight heavy metals in surface and groundwater around Dhaka Export Processing Zone (DEPZ) industrial area were investigated, and the health risk posed to local children and adult residents via ingestion and dermal contact was evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Metal concentrations (except Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn) in Bangshi River water were above the drinking water quality guidelines, while in groundwater were less than the recommended limits. Concentration of metals in surface water decreased as a function of distance. Estimations of non-carcinogenic health risk for surface water revealed that mean hazard index (HI) values of As, Cr, Cu, and Pb for combined pathways (i.e., ingestion and dermal contact) were >1.0 for both age groups. The estimated risk mainly came from the ingestion pathway. However, the HI values for all the examined metals in groundwater were <1.0, indicating no possible human health hazard. Deterministically estimated total cancer risk (TCR) via Bangshi River water exceeded the acceptable limit of 1 × 10(-4) for adult and children. Although, probabilistically estimated 95th percentile values of TCR exceeded the benchmark, mean TCR values were less than 1 × 10(-4). Simulated results showed that 20.13% and 5.43% values of TCR for surface water were >1 × 10(-4) for adult and children, respectively. Deterministic and probabilistic estimations of cancer risk through exposure to groundwater were well below the safety limit. Overall, the population exposed to Bangshi River water remained at carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health threat and the risk was higher for adults. Sensitivity analysis identified exposure duration (ED) and ingestion rate (IR) of water as the most relevant variables affecting the probabilistic risk estimation model outcome.

  18. Metals bioaccumulation in two edible bivalves and health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    El-Shenawy, Nahla S; Loutfy, Naglaa; Soliman, Maha F M; Tadros, Menerva M; Abd El-Azeez, Ahmed A

    2016-03-01

    Our aim was to quantify the bioaccumulation of 13 metals in two edible bivalves (Ruditapes decussatus and Paphia undulata) in Lake Timsah, Egypt. A potential human health risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the hazards from bivalve consumption. Fe, Al, Zn, and Sr had the highest concentrations in the bivalve samples. The levels of Cd were much lower than the maximum permissible level, while Pb concentrations in the two bivalves were nearly two times the permissible level. The extent of bioaccumulation factor was site- and species-specific. For low and high bivalve-consuming groups, the estimated daily intake of Pb and Cd ranged from 0.01 to 0.76 μg/kg/day. For low and high bivalve-consuming groups, hazard quotients (HQs) for metals were found to be less than 1 for both bivalve species, except for Co in the high-consuming group. In conclusion, even though there was no apparent risk to bivalve consumers from being exposed to single metals, there is a risk from being exposed to the 13 studied metals together, especially for high bivalve-consuming groups such as fishermen.

  19. Human Health Risk Assessment Research Strategy. External Review Draft.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-02-01

    magnitude greater than the environmental exposure for which estimates of risk are 5 being made, as well as from test animals to humans. The uncertainties in...such extrapolations are 6 considerable and represent major problems facing the risk assessor. 7 Extrapolation from animal data to estimate human...risks involves a variety of assumptions 8 about interspecies differences between animals and humans. 9 Extrapolation from high to low dose from either

  20. Racial Differences in Perceptions of Air Pollution Health Risk: Does Environmental Exposure Matter?

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Jayajit; Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Maldonado, Alejandra

    2017-01-25

    This article extends environmental risk perception research by exploring how potential health risk from exposure to industrial and vehicular air pollutants, as well as other contextual and socio-demographic factors, influence racial/ethnic differences in air pollution health risk perception. Our study site is the Greater Houston metropolitan area, Texas, USA-a racially/ethnically diverse area facing high levels of exposure to pollutants from both industrial and transportation sources. We integrate primary household-level survey data with estimates of excess cancer risk from ambient exposure to industrial and on-road mobile source emissions of air toxics obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Statistical analysis is based on multivariate generalized estimation equation models which account for geographic clustering of surveyed households. Our results reveal significantly higher risk perceptions for non-Hispanic Black residents and those exposed to greater cancer risk from industrial pollutants, and also indicate that gender influences the relationship between race/ethnicity and air pollution risk perception. These findings highlight the need to incorporate measures of environmental health risk exposure in future analysis of social disparities in risk perception.

  1. Racial Differences in Perceptions of Air Pollution Health Risk: Does Environmental Exposure Matter?

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Jayajit; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Maldonado, Alejandra

    2017-01-01

    This article extends environmental risk perception research by exploring how potential health risk from exposure to industrial and vehicular air pollutants, as well as other contextual and socio-demographic factors, influence racial/ethnic differences in air pollution health risk perception. Our study site is the Greater Houston metropolitan area, Texas, USA—a racially/ethnically diverse area facing high levels of exposure to pollutants from both industrial and transportation sources. We integrate primary household-level survey data with estimates of excess cancer risk from ambient exposure to industrial and on-road mobile source emissions of air toxics obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Statistical analysis is based on multivariate generalized estimation equation models which account for geographic clustering of surveyed households. Our results reveal significantly higher risk perceptions for non-Hispanic Black residents and those exposed to greater cancer risk from industrial pollutants, and also indicate that gender influences the relationship between race/ethnicity and air pollution risk perception. These findings highlight the need to incorporate measures of environmental health risk exposure in future analysis of social disparities in risk perception. PMID:28125059

  2. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    PubMed Central

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools. PMID:28257103

  3. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide-An Overview.

    PubMed

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-03-02

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  4. A review of heavy metals in indoor dust and its human health-risk implications.

    PubMed

    Tan, Sock Yin; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Abidin, Emilia Zainal; Cheema, Manraj Singh

    2016-12-01

    Indoor dust acts as a media for heavy metal deposition. Past studies have shown that heavy metal concentration in indoor dust is affected by local human activities and atmospheric transport can have harmful effects on human health. Additionally, children are more sensitive to heavy metals due to their hand-to-mouth behaviour and rapid body development. However, limited information on health risks were found in past dust studies as these studies aimed to identify heavy metal concentrations and sources of indoor dust. The objective of this review is to discuss heavy metal concentration and sources influencing its concentration in indoor dust. Accordingly, high lead (Pb) concentration (639.10 μg/g) has been reported in heavy traffic areas. In addition, this review paper aims to estimate the health risk to children from heavy metals in indoor dust via multiple exposure pathways using the health-risk assessment (HRA). Urban areas and industrial sites have revealed high heavy metal concentration in comparison to rural areas. Hazard index (HI) values found in arsenic (As), chromium (Cr) and Pb were 21.30, 1.10 and 2.40, respectively, indicate that non-carcinogenic elements are found in children. Furthermore, most of the past studies have found that carcinogenic risks for As, cadmium (Cd), Cr and Pb were below the acceptable total lifetime cancer risk (TLCR) range (1×10-6-1×10-4). The results of health risk assessment in this review show that carcinogenic risk exists among children. Hence, this proves that future studies need to focus on children's carcinogenic risk in indoor dust studies in order to find out the sources of heavy metals in indoor dust. This review highlights the importance of having the HRA application using bioavailable heavy metal concentration as it provides more accurate health-risk estimation. Moreover, this review is also useful as a reference for policy decision making in protecting children's health.

  5. Current Status of Chemical Public Health Risks and Testing ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The cardiovascular system, at all its various developmental and life stages, represents a critical target organ system that can be adversely affected by a variety of chemicals and routes of exposure. A World Health Organization report estimated the impact of environmental chemical exposures on health to be 16% (range: 7—23%) of the total global burden of cardiovascular disease, corresponding to ~2.5 million deaths per year. Currently, the overall impact of environmental chemical exposures on all causes of cardiovascular disease and the number one cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States is unknown. Evidence from epidemiology, clinical, and toxicological studies will be presented documenting adverse cardiovascular effects associated with environmental exposure to chemicals. The presentation will cover US EPA’s ability to regulate and test chemicals as well as current challenges faced by the Agency to assess chemical cardiovascular risk and public health safety. (This abstract does not necessarily reflect US EPA Policy) Will be presented at the Workshop titled

  6. Impact of provision of cardiovascular disease risk estimates to healthcare professionals and patients: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Silarova, Barbora; Schuit, Ewoud; GM Moons, Karel; Griffin, Simon J

    2015-01-01

    Objective To systematically review whether the provision of information on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk to healthcare professionals and patients impacts their decision-making, behaviour and ultimately patient health. Design A systematic review. Data sources An electronic literature search of MEDLINE and PubMed from 01/01/2004 to 01/06/2013 with no language restriction and manual screening of reference lists of systematic reviews on similar topics and all included papers. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies (1) Primary research published in a peer-reviewed journal; (2) inclusion of participants with no history of CVD; (3) intervention strategy consisted of provision of a CVD risk model estimate to either professionals or patients; and (4) the only difference between the intervention group and control group (or the only intervention in the case of before-after studies) was the provision of a CVD risk model estimate. Results After duplicates were removed, the initial electronic search identified 9671 papers. We screened 196 papers at title and abstract level and included 17 studies. The heterogeneity of the studies limited the analysis, but together they showed that provision of risk information to patients improved the accuracy of risk perception without decreasing quality of life or increasing anxiety, but had little effect on lifestyle. Providing risk information to physicians increased prescribing of lipid-lowering and blood pressure medication, with greatest effects in those with CVD risk >20% (relative risk for change in prescribing 2.13 (1.02 to 4.63) and 2.38 (1.11 to 5.10) respectively). Overall, there was a trend towards reductions in cholesterol and blood pressure and a statistically significant reduction in modelled CVD risk (−0.39% (−0.71 to −0.07)) after, on average, 12 months. Conclusions There seems evidence that providing CVD risk model estimates to professionals and patients improves perceived CVD risk and medical prescribing

  7. Health-Based Capitation Risk Adjustment in Minnesota Public Health Care Programs

    PubMed Central

    Gifford, Gregory A.; Edwards, Kevan R.; Knutson, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This article documents the history and implementation of health-based capitation risk adjustment in Minnesota public health care programs, and identifies key implementation issues. Capitation payments in these programs are risk adjusted using an historical, health plan risk score, based on concurrent risk assessment. Phased implementation of capitation risk adjustment for these programs began January 1, 2000. Minnesota's experience with capitation risk adjustment suggests that: (1) implementation can accelerate encounter data submission, (2) administrative decisions made during implementation can create issues that impact payment model performance, and (3) changes in diagnosis data management during implementation may require changes to the payment model. PMID:25372356

  8. [Health risk assessment of coke oven PAHs emissions].

    PubMed

    Bo, Xin; Wang, Gang; Wen, Rou; Zhao, Chun-Li; Wu, Tie; Li, Shi-Bei

    2014-07-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) produced by coke oven are with strong toxicity and carcinogenicity. Taken typical coke oven of iron and steel enterprises as the case study, the dispersion and migration of 13 kinds of PAHs emitted from coke oven were analyzed using AERMOD dispersion model, the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks at the receptors within the modeling domain were evaluated using BREEZE Risk Analyst and the Human Health Risk Assessment Protocol for Hazardous Waste Combustion (HHRAP) was followed, the health risks caused by PAHs emission from coke oven were quantitatively evaluated. The results indicated that attention should be paid to the non-carcinogenic risk of naphthalene emission (the maximum value was 0.97). The carcinogenic risks of each single pollutant were all below 1.0E-06, while the maximum value of total carcinogenic risk was 2.65E-06, which may have some influence on the health of local residents.

  9. Human health risks associated with asbestos abatement

    SciTech Connect

    Chrostowski, P.C.; Foster, S.A.; Anderson, E.L. )

    1991-09-01

    Upperbound lifetime excess cancer risks were calculated for activities associated with asbestos abatement using a risk assessment framework developed for EPA's Superfund program. It was found that removals were associated with cancer risks to workers which were often greater than the commonly accepted cancer risk of 1 {times} 10(-6), although lower than occupational exposure limits associated with risks of 1 {times} 10(-3). Removals had little effect in reducing risk to school populations. Risks to teachers and students in school buildings containing asbestos were approximately the same as risks associated with exposure to ambient asbestos by the general public and were below the levels typically of concern to regulatory agencies. During abatement, however, there were increased risks to both workers and nearby individuals. Careless, everyday building maintenance generated the greatest risk to workers followed by removals and encapsulation. If asbestos abatement was judged by the risk criteria applied to EPA's Superfund program, the no-action alternative would likely be selected in preference to removal in a majority of cases. These conclusions should only be interpreted within the context of an overall asbestos risk management program, which includes consideration of specific fiber types and sizes, sampling and analytical limitations, physical condition of asbestos-containing material, episodic peak exposures, and the number of people potentially exposed.

  10. Mental Health and Students at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodwin, Alan B.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter addresses issues pertaining to students who are at risk, possibly due to a psychological disability. Some of the challenges institutions of higher education confront in addressing at-risk students' struggles are identified, with specific focus placed on risk management and evolving legal mandates. No content is intended to represent…

  11. The Impact of an Incentive-Based Worksite Health Promotion Program on Modifiable Health Risk Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poole, Kathleen; Kumpfer, Karol; Pett, Marjorie

    2001-01-01

    Examined the impact of participating in an incentive-based employee health promotion program on modifiable health risk factors over 4 years. Data from physiological and self-report measures indicated that modifiable health risks improved over time (smoking, physical activity, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and seat belt use). Cholesterol…

  12. Mental Health and Health Risk Behaviours of Homeless Adolescents and Youth: A Mixed Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oppong Asante, Kwaku; Meyer-Weitz, Anna; Petersen, Inge

    2016-01-01

    Background: Homeless youth, as a vulnerable population are susceptible to various mental and health risk behaviours. However, less is known of the mental health status of these homeless youth and its role in risky sexual behaviours; neither do we understand the reasons homeless youth give for their engagement in various health risk behaviour.…

  13. Early term birth: understanding the health risks to infants.

    PubMed

    Craighead, Debra Vela

    2012-01-01

    Early term birth, which occurs at 37 to 38 weeks gestation, is often elective and can carry significant health risks to infants, including short-term and long-term health outcomes. Nurses and other health care providers involved in the care of pregnant women and infants need to be aware of these infants' physiologic vulnerability and potential short- term and long-term care requirements. Nurses can educate patients and raise awareness of the risks associated with early term birth.

  14. Community-based estimates of incidence and risk factors for childhood pneumonia in Western Sydney.

    PubMed Central

    MacIntyre, C. R.; McIntyre, P. B.; Cagney, M.

    2003-01-01

    The aim was to estimate the community incidence and risk factors for all-cause pneumonia in children in Western Sydney, Australia. A cross-sectional randomized computer-assisted telephone interview was conducted in July 2000, in Western Sydney. Parents of 2020 children aged between 5 and 14 years were interviewed about their child's respiratory health since birth. No verification of reported diagnosis was available. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors for pneumonia. A lifetime diagnosis of pneumonia was reported in 137/2020 (68%) children, giving an estimated incidence in the study sample of 7.6/1000 person-years. Radiological confirmation was reported in 85% (117/137). Hospitalization was reported in 41% (56/137) and antibiotic therapy in 93% (127/137) of cases. Using logistic regression modelling, statistically significant associations with pneumonia were a reported history of either asthma, bronchitis or other lung problems and health problems affecting other systems. In most cases, the diagnosis of asthma preceded the diagnosis of pneumonia. The community incidence of all causes of pneumonia is not well enumerated, either in adults or in children. This study provides community-based incidence data. The incidence of hospitalization for pneumonia in this study is comparable to estimates from studies in comparable populations, suggesting that retrospective parental report for memorable events is likely to be valid. We found a relationship between pneumonia and childhood respiratory diseases such as asthma, which has implications for targeted vaccination strategies. PMID:14959775

  15. Declining bioavailability and inappropriate estimation of risk of persistent compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Kelsey, J.W.; Alexander, M.

    1997-03-01

    Earthworms (Eisenia foetida) assimilated decreasing amounts of atrazine, phenanthrene, and naphthalene that had been incubated for increasing periods of time in sterile soil. The amount of atrazine and phenanthrene removed from soil by mild extractants also decreased with time. The declines in bioavailability of the three compounds to earthworms and of naphthalene to bacteria were not reflected by analysis involving vigorous methods of solvent extraction; similar results for bioavailability of phenanthrene and 4-nitrophenol to bacteria were obtained in a previous study conducted at this laboratory. The authors suggest that regulations based on vigorous extractions for the analyses of persistent organic pollutants in soil do not appropriately estimate exposure or risk to susceptible populations.

  16. Work-site cardiovascular risk reduction: a randomized trial of health risk assessment, education, counseling, and incentives.

    PubMed Central

    Gomel, M; Oldenburg, B; Simpson, J M; Owen, N

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. This study reports an efficacy trial of four work-site health promotion programs. It was predicted that strategies making use of behavioral counseling would produce a greater reduction in cardiovascular disease risk factors than screening and educational strategies. METHODS. Twenty-eight work sites were randomly allocated to a health risk assessment, risk factor education, behavioral counseling, or behavioral counseling plus incentives intervention. Participants were assessed before the intervention and at 3, 6, and 12 months. RESULTS. Compared with the average of the health risk assessment and risk factor education conditions, there were significantly higher validated continuous smoking cessation rates and smaller increases in body mass index and estimated percentage of body fat in the two behavioral counseling conditions. The behavioral counseling condition was associated with a greater reduction in mean blood pressure than was the behavioral counseling plus incentives condition. On average among all groups, there was a short-term increase in aerobic capacity followed by a return to baseline levels. CONCLUSIONS. Work-site interventions that use behavioral approaches can produce lasting changes in some cardiovascular risk factors and, if implemented routinely, can have a significant public health impact. PMID:8362997

  17. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Mansfield, Theodore J.; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    be avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas. PMID:27200327

  18. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States.

    PubMed

    Mansfield, Theodore J; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas.

  19. Human health risk assessment related to contaminated land: state of the art.

    PubMed

    Swartjes, F A

    2015-08-01

    Exposure of humans to contaminants from contaminated land may result in many types of health damage ranging from relatively innocent symptoms such as skin eruption or nausea, on up to cancer or even death. Human health protection is generally considered as a major protection target. State-of-the-art possibilities and limitations of human health risk assessment tools are described in this paper. Human health risk assessment includes two different activities, i.e. the exposure assessment and the hazard assessment. The combination of these is called the risk characterization, which results in an appraisal of the contaminated land. Exposure assessment covers a smart combination of calculations, using exposure models, and measurements in contact media and body liquids and tissue (biomonitoring). Regarding the time frame represented by exposure estimates, biomonitoring generally relates to exposure history, measurements in contact media to actual exposures, while exposure calculations enable a focus on exposure in future situations. The hazard assessment, which is different for contaminants with or without a threshold for effects, results in a critical exposure value. Good human health risk assessment practice accounts for tiered approaches and multiple lines of evidence. Specific attention is given here to phenomena such as the time factor in human health risk assessment, suitability for the local situation, background exposure, combined exposure and harmonization of human health risk assessment tools.

  20. Health Promotion and Risk Behaviors among Adolescents in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ortabag, Tulay; Ozdemir, Serpil; Bakir, Bilal; Tosun, Nuran

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents experience the onset and development of several health-related behaviors. The purpose of this study is to determine health risk and promotion behaviors of adolescents between the ages of 11 and 19 who were attending and to test the reliability and validity analysis of the Turkish version of Adolescent Health Promotion Scale (AHPS). The…

  1. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-16

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Department of Health and Human Services...

  2. The Use of Microcomputers in Health Risk Appraisal.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Gary D.

    The purpose of this pilot study was to determine the contributions of computerized health risk appraisal when used as a supplement to the traditional methods of health instruction. Subjects were a convenience sample of 26 students enrolled in a university level, personal health course. Using a one group pretest posttest design, these subjects were…

  3. Model stimulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change.

    PubMed

    Jetten, T H; Martens, W J; Takken, W

    1996-05-01

    The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its potential range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as "Anophelism without malaria." The vectors are present but malaria transmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic concept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in the world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic areas shows that the areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computations with the model presented here predict, with different climate scenarios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic regions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temperature increase of 2-4 degrees C.

  4. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection.

    PubMed

    Nah, Kyeongah; Mizumoto, Kenji; Miyamatsu, Yuichiro; Yasuda, Yohei; Kinoshita, Ryo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

    Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience.

  5. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection

    PubMed Central

    Nah, Kyeongah; Mizumoto, Kenji; Miyamatsu, Yuichiro; Yasuda, Yohei; Kinoshita, Ryo

    2016-01-01

    Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience. PMID:27069825

  6. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    PubMed

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  7. [Atmospheric air pollution in an industrial city as the factor of non-carcinogenic risk for health of communities].

    PubMed

    Surzhikov, V D; Surzhikov, D V; Golikov, R A

    2013-01-01

    The paper deals with the results of the research on risk of exposure of atmospheric air pollution in a large industrial city to health of communities. The results of individual both immediate and chronic risk estimation for selectable city zones are presented. Regression ratios of various substances concentrations and disease incidence are revealed. On their basis the estimation of risk of additional disease incidence is carried out and taxonomic values characterizing the contribution of separate pollutants to risk of health of communities' disorder are obtained.

  8. Health behaviors and quality of life predictors for risk of hospitalization in an electronic health record-linked biobank

    PubMed Central

    Takahashi, Paul Y; Ryu, Euijung; Olson, Janet E; Winkler, Erin M; Hathcock, Matthew A; Gupta, Ruchi; Sloan, Jeff A; Pathak, Jyotishman; Bielinski, Suzette J; Cerhan, James R

    2015-01-01

    Background Hospital risk stratification models using electronic health records (EHRs) often use age and comorbid health burden. Our primary aim was to determine if quality of life or health behaviors captured in an EHR-linked biobank can predict future risk of hospitalization. Methods Participants in the Mayo Clinic Biobank completed self-administered questionnaires at enrollment that included quality of life and health behaviors. Participants enrolled as of December 31, 2010 were followed for one year to ascertain hospitalization. Data on comorbidities and hospitalization were derived from the Mayo Clinic EHR. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used, adjusted for age and sex. We used gradient boosting machines models to integrate multiple factors. Different models were compared using C-statistic. Results Of the 8,927 eligible Mayo Clinic Biobank participants, 834 (9.3%) were hospitalized. Self-perceived health status and alcohol use had the strongest associations with risk of hospitalization. Compared to participants with excellent self-perceived health, those reporting poor/fair health had higher risk of hospitalization (HR =3.66, 95% CI 2.74–4.88). Alcohol use was inversely associated with hospitalization (HR =0.57 95% CI 0.45–0.72). The gradient boosting machines model estimated self-perceived health as the most influential factor (relative influence =16%). The predictive ability of the model based on comorbidities was slightly higher than the one based on the self-perceived health (C-statistic =0.67 vs 0.65). Conclusion This study demonstrates that self-perceived health may be an important piece of information to add to the EHR. It may be another method to determine hospitalization risk. PMID:26316799

  9. Muscle Mass and Body Fat in Relation to Cardiovascular Risk Estimation and Lipid-Lowering Eligibility.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kayoung

    2016-12-06

    This cross-sectional population-based study aimed to evaluate the relationships of muscle-mass and body-fat phenotypes to 10-yr risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and eligibility for lipid management. Participants were Korean adults (N = 7315; 3163 men, 4152 women) aged 40-79 yr, free from stroke and coronary heart disease, who provided complete data for estimating 10-yr CVD risk and body composition during the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2010). Four levels of combined muscle mass and body fat were determined using sex-specific quintiles of appendicular skeletal muscle mass divided by height squared, and sex-specific quintiles of total body fat percentage. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using Pooled Cohort Equations and Framingham risk scores. Lipid-lowering medication eligibility was determined using American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. Compared with the reference group, the risk of CVD events was higher in men with low muscle mass, high body fat, or the 2 factors combined. CVD risk was lower in women with low muscle mass, higher in women with high body fat, and nonsignificant in women with the 2 factors. Participants with low muscle mass and high body fat had higher odds for medication eligibility using the ACC/AHA guidelines but not the ATP III guidelines. Higher estimated 10-yr CVD risk was associated with combined phenotypes of low muscle mass and high fat in men but not in women. Also, the relationship of these phenotypes to lipid-lowering medication eligibility was guideline-specific.

  10. Methodology and application for health risk classification of chemicals in foods based on risk matrix.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Ping Ping; Liu, Zhao Ping; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Ai Dong; Song, Yan; Yong, Ling; Li, Ning

    2014-11-01

    The method has been developed to accurately identify the magnitude of health risks and provide scientific evidence for implementation of risk management in food safety. It combines two parameters including consequence and likelihood of adverse effects based on risk matrix. Score definitions and classification for the consequence and the likelihood of adverse effects are proposed. The risk score identifies the intersection of consequence and likelihood in risk matrix represents its health risk level with different colors: 'low', 'medium', 'high'. Its use in an actual case is shown.

  11. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  12. Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia in the Canadian elderly population using cross-sectional cohort survival data

    PubMed Central

    Carone, Marco; Asgharian, Masoud; Jewell, Nicholas P.

    2014-01-01

    Dementia is one of the world’s major public health challenges. The lifetime risk of dementia is the proportion of individuals who ever develop dementia during their lifetime. Despite its importance to epidemiologists and policy-makers, this measure does not seem to have been estimated in the Canadian population. Data from a birth cohort study of dementia are not available. Instead, we must rely on data from the Canadian Study of Heath and Aging, a large cross-sectional study of dementia with follow-up for survival. These data present challenges because they include substantial loss to follow-up and are not representatively drawn from the target population because of structural sampling biases. A first bias is imparted by the cross-sectional sampling scheme, while a second bias is a result of stratified sampling. Estimation of the lifetime risk and related quantities in the presence of these biases has not been previously addressed in the literature. We develop and study nonparametric estimators of the lifetime risk, the remaining lifetime risk and cumulative risk at specific ages, accounting for these complexities. In particular, we reveal the fact that estimation of the lifetime risk is invariant to stratification by current age at sampling. We present simulation results validating our methodology, and provide novel facts about the epidemiology of dementia in Canada using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. PMID:26139951

  13. The performance of different propensity-score methods for estimating differences in proportions (risk differences or absolute risk reductions) in observational studies.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2010-09-10

    Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate the effects of treatments on health outcomes using observational data. There are four methods for using the propensity score to estimate treatment effects: covariate adjustment using the propensity score, stratification on the propensity score, propensity-score matching, and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score. When outcomes are binary, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be described using odds ratios, relative risks, risk differences, or the number needed to treat. Several clinical commentators suggested that risk differences and numbers needed to treat are more meaningful for clinical decision making than are odds ratios or relative risks. However, there is a paucity of information about the relative performance of the different propensity-score methods for estimating risk differences. We conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine this issue. We examined bias, variance estimation, coverage of confidence intervals, mean-squared error (MSE), and type I error rates. A doubly robust version of IPTW had superior performance compared with the other propensity-score methods. It resulted in unbiased estimation of risk differences, treatment effects with the lowest standard errors, confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates, and correct type I error rates. Stratification, matching on the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score resulted in minor to modest bias in estimating risk differences. Estimators based on IPTW had lower MSE compared with other propensity-score methods. Differences between IPTW and propensity-score matching may reflect that these two methods estimate the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect for the treated, respectively.

  14. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of 134Cs, 137Cs, and 131I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively. PMID:26770031

  15. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea.

    PubMed

    Moon, Eun-Kyeong; Ha, Wi-Ho; Seo, Songwon; Jin, Young Woo; Jeong, Kyu Hwan; Yoon, Hae-Jung; Kim, Hyoung-Soo; Hwang, Myung-Sil; Choi, Hoon; Lee, Won Jin

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of (134)Cs, (137)Cs, and (131)I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively.

  16. Risk Assessment: Perchloroethylene Dry Cleaners Refined Human Health Risk Characterization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This November 2005 memo and appendices describe the methods by which EPA conducted its refined risk assessment of the Major Source and Area Source facilities within the perchloroethylene (perc) dry cleaners source category.

  17. RISK CORRIDORS AND REINSURANCE IN HEALTH INSURANCE MARKETPLACES

    PubMed Central

    LAYTON, TIMOTHY J.; MCGUIRE, THOMAS G.; SINAIKO, ANNA D.

    2016-01-01

    Health Insurance Marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act implement reinsurance and risk corridors. Reinsurance limits insurer costs associated with specific individuals, while risk corridors protect against aggregate losses. Both tighten the insurer’s distribution of expected costs. This paper compares the economic costs and consequences of reinsurance and risk corridors. We simulate the insurer’s cost distribution under reinsurance and risk corridors using data for a group of individuals likely to enroll in Marketplace plans from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We compare reinsurance and risk corridors in terms of risk reduction and incentives for cost containment. We find that reinsurance and one-sided risk corridors achieve comparable levels of risk reduction for a given level of incentives. We also find that the policies being implemented in the Marketplaces (a mix of reinsurance and two-sided risk corridor policies) substantially limit insurer risk but perform similarly to a simpler stand-alone reinsurance policy. PMID:26973861

  18. The impact of an integrated population health enhancement and disease management program on employee health risk, health conditions, and productivity.

    PubMed

    Loeppke, Ron; Nicholson, Sean; Taitel, Michael; Sweeney, Matthew; Haufle, Vince; Kessler, Ronald C

    2008-12-01

    This study evaluated the impact of an integrated population health enhancement program on employee health risks, health conditions, and productivity. Specifically, we analyzed changes in these measures among a cohort of 543 employees who completed a health risk assessment in both 2003 and 2005. We compared these findings with 2 different sets of employees who were not offered health enhancement programming. We found that the DIRECTV cohort showed a significant reduction in health risks after exposure to the program. Relative to a matched comparison group, the proportion of low-risk employees at DIRECTV in 2005 was 8.2 percentage points higher; the proportion of medium-risk employees was 7.1 percentage points lower; and the proportion of high-risk employees was 1.1 percentage points lower (p < 0.001). The most noticeable changes in health risk were a reduction in the proportion of employees with high cholesterol; an improvement in diet; a reduction of heavy drinking; management of high blood pressure; improved stress management; increased exercise; fewer smokers; and a drop in obesity rates. We also found that a majority of employees who improved their risk levels from 2003 to 2005 maintained their gains in 2006. Employees who improved their risks levels also demonstrated relative improvement in absenteeism. Overall, this study provides additional evidence that integrated population health enhancement positively impacts employees' health risk and productivity; it also reinforces the view that "good health is good business."

  19. Pathways to health risk exposure in adult film performers.

    PubMed

    Grudzen, Corita R; Ryan, Gery; Margold, William; Torres, Jacqueline; Gelberg, Lillian

    2009-01-01

    Despite being part of a large and legal industry in Los Angeles, little is known about adult film performers' exposure to health risks and when and how these risks might occur. The objective was to identify exposure to physical, mental, and social health risks and the pathways to such risks among adult film performers and to determine how risks differ between different types of performers, such as men and women. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 female and ten male performers as well as two key informants from the industry. Performers and key informants were recruited through Protecting Adult Welfare, adult film venues, and snowball sampling. Performers engaged in risky health behaviors that included high-risk sexual acts that are unprotected, substance abuse, and body enhancement. They are exposed to physical trauma on the film set. Many entered and left the industry with financial insecurity and suffered from mental health problems. Women were more likely than men to be exposed to health risks. Adult film performers, especially women, are exposed to health risks that accumulate over time and that are not limited to sexually transmitted diseases.

  20. Pathways to Health Risk Exposure in Adult Film Performers

    PubMed Central

    Ryan, Gery; Margold, William; Torres, Jacqueline; Gelberg, Lillian

    2008-01-01

    Despite being part of a large and legal industry in Los Angeles, little is known about adult film performers’ exposure to health risks and when and how these risks might occur. The objective was to identify exposure to physical, mental, and social health risks and the pathways to such risks among adult film performers and to determine how risks differ between different types of performers, such as men and women. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 female and ten male performers as well as two key informants from the industry. Performers and key informants were recruited through Protecting Adult Welfare, adult film venues, and snowball sampling. Performers engaged in risky health behaviors that included high-risk sexual acts that are unprotected, substance abuse, and body enhancement. They are exposed to physical trauma on the film set. Many entered and left the industry with financial insecurity and suffered from mental health problems. Women were more likely than men to be exposed to health risks. Adult film performers, especially women, are exposed to health risks that accumulate over time and that are not limited to sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:18709554

  1. Developing a risk-based air quality health index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Tze Wai; Tam, Wilson Wai San; Yu, Ignatius Tak Sun; Lau, Alexis Kai Hon; Pang, Sik Wing; Wong, Andromeda H. S.

    2013-09-01

    We developed a risk-based, multi-pollutant air quality health index (AQHI) reporting system in Hong Kong, based on the Canadian approach. We performed time series studies to obtain the relative risks of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases associated with four air pollutants: sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10). We then calculated the sum of excess risks of the hospital admissions associated with these air pollutants. The cut-off points of the summed excess risk, for the issuance of different health warnings, were based on the concentrations of these pollutants recommended as short-term Air Quality Guidelines by the World Health Organization. The excess risks were adjusted downwards for young children and the elderly. Health risk was grouped into five categories and sub-divided into eleven bands, with equal increments in excess risk from band 1 up to band 10 (the 11th band is 'band 10+'). We developed health warning messages for the general public, including at-risk groups: young children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing cardiac or respiratory diseases. The new system addressed two major shortcomings of the current standard-based system; namely, the time lag between a sudden rise in air pollutant concentrations and the issue of a health warning, and the reliance on one dominant pollutant to calculate the index. Hence, the AQHI represents an improvement over Hong Kong's existing air pollution index.

  2. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  3. Health Risk Assessment of Inhalation Exposure to Formaldehyde and Benzene in Newly Remodeled Buildings, Beijing

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Lihui; Mo, Jinhan; Sundell, Jan; Fan, Zhihua; Zhang, Yinping

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess health risks associated with inhalation exposure to formaldehyde and benzene mainly emitted from building and decoration materials in newly remodeled indoor spaces in Beijing. Methods We tested the formaldehyde and benzene concentrations in indoor air of 410 dwellings and 451 offices remodeled within the past year, in which the occupants had health concerns about indoor air quality. To assess non-carcinogenic health risks, we compared the data to the health guidelines in China and USA, respectively. To assess carcinogenic health risks, we first modeled indoor personal exposure to formaldehyde and benzene using the concentration data, and then estimated the associated cancer risks by multiplying the indoor personal exposure by the Inhalation Unit Risk values (IURs) provided by the U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System (U.S. EPA IRIS) and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA), respectively. Results (1) The indoor formaldehyde concentrations of 85% dwellings and 67% offices were above the acute Reference Exposure Level (REL) recommended by the OEHHA and the concentrations of all tested buildings were above the chronic REL recommended by the OEHHA; (2) The indoor benzene concentrations of 12% dwellings and 32% offices exceeded the reference concentration (RfC) recommended by the U.S. EPA IRIS; (3) The median cancer risks from indoor exposure to formaldehyde and benzene were 1,150 and 106 per million (based on U.S. EPA IRIS IURs), 531 and 394 per million (based on OEHHA IURs). Conclusions In the tested buildings, formaldehyde exposure may pose acute and chronic non-carcinogenic health risks to the occupants, whereas benzene exposure may pose chronic non-carcinogenic risks to the occupants. Exposure to both compounds is associated with significant carcinogenic risks. Improvement in ventilation, establishment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emission labeling systems for decorating and refurbishing materials

  4. Value drivers: an approach for estimating health and disease management program savings.

    PubMed

    Phillips, V L; Becker, Edmund R; Howard, David H

    2013-12-01

    Health and disease management (HDM) programs have faced challenges in documenting savings related to their implementation. The objective of this eliminate study was to describe OptumHealth's (Optum) methods for estimating anticipated savings from HDM programs using Value Drivers. Optum's general methodology was reviewed, along with details of 5 high-use Value Drivers. The results showed that the Value Driver approach offers an innovative method for estimating savings associated with HDM programs. The authors demonstrated how real-time savings can be estimated for 5 Value Drivers commonly used in HDM programs: (1) use of beta-blockers in treatment of heart disease, (2) discharge planning for high-risk patients, (3) decision support related to chronic low back pain, (4) obesity management, and (5) securing transportation for primary care. The validity of savings estimates is dependent on the type of evidence used to gauge the intervention effect, generating changes in utilization and, ultimately, costs. The savings estimates derived from the Value Driver method are generally reasonable to conservative and provide a valuable framework for estimating financial impacts from evidence-based interventions.

  5. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  6. Risk Factor Intervention for Health Maintenance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Breslow, Lester

    1978-01-01

    Risk factors for disease consist of personal habits such as cigarette smoking and excessive alcohol consumption, and bodily characteristics such as hypertension and high serum cholesterol. Progress in identifying, quantifying, and controlling risk factors is opening the way to the prevention of disease. (BB)

  7. Application of a Spatial Intelligent Decision System on Self-Rated Health Status Estimation.

    PubMed

    Calzada, Alberto; Liu, Jun; Wang, Hui; Nugent, Chris; Martinez, Luis

    2015-11-01

    Self- assessed general health status is a commonly-used survey technique since it can be used as a predictor for several public health risks such as mortality, deprivation, and fear of crime or poverty. Therefore, it is a useful alternative measure to help assessing the public health situation of a neighborhood or town, and can be utilized by authorities in many decision support situations related to public health, budget allocation and general policy-making, among others. It can be considered as spatial decision problems, since both data location and spatial relationships make a prominent impact during the decision making process. This paper utilizes a recently-developed spatial intelligent decision system, named, Spatial RIMER(+), to model the self-rated health estimation decision problem using real data in the areas of Northern Ireland, UK. The goal is to learn from past or partial observations on self-rated health status to predict its future or neighborhood behavior and reference it in the map. Three scenarios in line of this goal are discussed in details, i.e., estimation of unknown, downscaling, and predictions over time. They are used to demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of the spatial decision support system and their positive capabilities in terms of accuracy, efficiency and visualization.

  8. Attitudes toward health risks and sunbathing behavior.

    PubMed

    Beech, J R; Sheehan, E; Barraclough, S

    1996-11-01

    Sunbathing confers the benefits of looking and feeling good but presents the long-term risk of skin cancer. In a disguised experiment exploring attitudes toward sunbathing by British adults, participants were asked to rate their willingness to take a hypothetical new drug (with different levels of risk) that would make them look and feel good. One aspect of the resulting risk profiles was significantly related to a positive attitude to open-air sunbathing but not to sunbed use, possibly because it was erroneously thought that using a sunbed is not risky. The well-established finding that women are more cautious was confirmed; the risk function for men was curvilinear, in contrast to women, who were willing to increase their risk linearly over their lifetime.

  9. Health risks from radionuclides released into the Clinch River

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, B.A. |; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, L.F.

    1999-09-01

    The purpose of this work is to estimate off-site radiation doses and health risks (with uncertainties) associated with the release of radionuclides from the X-10 site. Following an initial screening analysis, the exposure pathways of interest included fish ingestion, drinking water ingestion, the ingestion of milk and meat, and external exposure from shoreline sediment. Four representative locations along the Clinch River, from the White Oak Creek Embayment to the city of Kingston, were chosen. The demography of the lower Clinch River supplied information dealing with land use that aided in the determination of sites on which to focus efforts. The locations that proved to be the most significant included Jones Island at Clinch River Mile (CRM) 20.5, Grassy Creek and K-25 (CRM 14), Kingston Steam Plant (CRM 3.5), and the city of Kingston (CRM 0). These areas of interest have historically been and are still primarily agricultural and residential areas. Reference individuals were determined with respect to the pathways involved. The primary radionuclides of interest released from the X-10 facility into the Clinch River via White Oak Creek were identified in the initial screening analysis as {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 60}Co, {sup 106}Ru, {sup 144}Ce, {sup 131}I, {sup 95}Zr, and {sup 95}Nb. Of these radionuclides, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 60}Co, {sup 106}Ru, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 144}Ce, {sup 95}Zr, and {sup 95}Nb were evaluated for their contribution to the external exposure pathway. This study utilized an object-oriented modeling software package that provides an alternative to the spreadsheet, providing graphical influence diagrams to show qualitative structure of models, hierarchical models to organize complicated models into manageable modules, and intelligent arrays with the power to scale up simple models to handle large problems. The doses and risks estimated in this study are not significant enough to cause a detectable increase in health effects in the population. In

  10. Absenteeism and Employer Costs Associated With Chronic Diseases and Health Risk Factors in the US Workforce

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Kakoli; Lang, Jason E.; Payne, Rebecca L.; Howard, David H.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Employers may incur costs related to absenteeism among employees who have chronic diseases or unhealthy behaviors. We examined the association between employee absenteeism and 5 conditions: 3 risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity) and 2 chronic diseases (hypertension and diabetes). Methods We identified 5 chronic diseases or risk factors from 2 data sources: MarketScan Health Risk Assessment and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Absenteeism was measured as the number of workdays missed because of sickness or injury. We used zero-inflated Poisson regression to estimate excess absenteeism as the difference in the number of days missed from work by those who reported having a risk factor or chronic disease and those who did not. Covariates included demographics (eg, age, education, sex) and employment variables (eg, industry, union membership). We quantified absenteeism costs in 2011 and adjusted them to reflect growth in employment costs to 2015 dollars. Finally, we estimated absenteeism costs for a hypothetical small employer (100 employees) and a hypothetical large employer (1,000 employees). Results Absenteeism estimates ranged from 1 to 2 days per individual per year depending on the risk factor or chronic disease. Except for the physical inactivity and obesity estimates, disease- and risk-factor–specific estimates were similar in MEPS and MarketScan. Absenteeism increased with the number of risk factors or diseases reported. Nationally, each risk factor or disease was associated with annual absenteeism costs greater than $2 billion. Absenteeism costs ranged from $16 to $81 (small employer) and $17 to $286 (large employer) per employee per year. Conclusion Absenteeism costs associated with chronic diseases and health risk factors can be substantial. Employers may incur these costs through lower productivity, and employees could incur costs through lower wages. PMID:27710764

  11. Cryptosporidium and Giardia in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with domestic sewage: estimation of bathing-associated disease risks.

    PubMed

    Betancourt, Walter Q; Duarte, Diana C; Vásquez, Rosa C; Gurian, Patrick L

    2014-08-15

    Sewage is a major contributor to pollution problems involving human pathogens in tropical coastal areas. This study investigated the occurrence of intestinal protozoan parasites (Giardia and Cryptosporidium) in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with sewage. The potential risks of Cryptosporidium and Giardia infection from recreational water exposure were estimated from the levels of viable (oo) cysts (DIC+, DAPI+, PI-) found in near-shore swimming areas using an exponential dose response model. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed in order to determine the probability distribution of risks. Microbial indicators of recreational water quality (enterococci, Clostridium perfringens) and genetic markers of sewage pollution (human-specific Bacteroidales marker [HF183] and Clostridium coccoides) were simultaneously evaluated in order to estimate the extent of water quality deterioration associated with human wastes. The study revealed the potential risk of parasite infections via primary contact with tropical marine waters contaminated with sewage; higher risk estimates for Giardia than for Cryptosporidium were found. Mean risks estimated by Monte Carlo were below the U.S. EPA upper bound on recreational risk of 0.036 for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis for both children and adults. However, 95th percentile estimates for giardiasis for children exceeded the 0.036 level. Environmental surveillance of microbial pathogens is crucial in order to control and eradicate the effects that increasing anthropogenic impacts have on marine ecosystems and human health.

  12. Mapping heatwave health risk at the community level for public health action

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. Results The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north–south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high

  13. A Risk Assessment Matrix for Public Health Principles: The Case for E-Cigarettes.

    PubMed

    Saitta, Daniela; Chowdhury, Azim; Ferro, Giancarlo Antonio; Nalis, Federico Giuseppe; Polosa, Riccardo

    2017-03-31

    Besides nicotine replacement therapies, a realistic alternative for smoking cessation or for smoking substitution may come from electronic cigarettes (ECs), whose popularity has been steadily growing. As for any emerging behaviour associated with exposure to inhalational agents, there is legitimate cause for concern and many health organizations and policy makers have pushed for restrictive policy measures ranging from complete bans to tight regulations of these products. Nonetheless, it is important to reframe these concerns in context of the well-known harm caused by cigarette smoking. In this article, we discuss key public health principles that should be considered when regulating ECs. These include the concept of tobacco harm reduction, importance of relative risk and risk continuum, renormalization of smoking, availability of low-risk product, proportionate taxation, and reassessment of the role of non-tobacco flavours. These public health principles may be systematically scrutinized using a risk assessment matrix that allows: (1) to determine the measure of certainty that a risk will occur; and (2) to estimate the impact of such a risk on public health. Consequently, the ultimate goal of responsible ECs regulation should be that of maximizing the favourable impact of these reduced-risk products whilst minimizing further any potential risks. Consumer perspectives, sound EC research, continuous post-marketing surveillance and reasonable safety and quality product standards should be at the very heart of future regulatory schemes that will address concerns while minimizing unintended consequences of ill-informed regulation.

  14. Health risks for students on overseas placements.

    PubMed

    Driver, Carolyn

    Health profession students are encouraged to take an elective during training and many do this overseas in tropical, low-income countries. Higher education institutions should offer advice and support on organising these placements but this varies and students may present for pre-travel health advice at their general practice or travel clinic. This article discusses how they should be advised.

  15. Geostatistical analysis of disease data: estimation of cancer mortality risk from empirical frequencies using Poisson kriging

    PubMed Central

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    Background Cancer mortality maps are used by public health officials to identify areas of excess and to guide surveillance and control activities. Quality of decision-making thus relies on an accurate quantification of risks from observed rates which can be very unreliable when computed from sparsely populated geographical units or recorded for minority populations. This paper presents a geostatistical methodology that accounts for spatially varying population sizes and spatial patterns in the processing of cancer mortality data. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the performances of Poisson kriging to a few simple smoothers (i.e. population-weighted estimators and empirical Bayes smoothers) under different scenarios for the disease frequency, the population size, and the spatial pattern of risk. A public-domain executable with example datasets is provided. Results The analysis of age-adjusted mortality rates for breast and cervix cancers illustrated some key features of commonly used smoothing techniques. Because of the small weight assigned to the rate observed over the entity being smoothed (kernel weight), the population-weighted average leads to risk maps that show little variability. Other techniques assign larger and similar kernel weights but they use a different piece of auxiliary information in the prediction: global or local means for global or local empirical Bayes smoothers, and spatial combination of surrounding rates for the geostatistical estimator. Simulation studies indicated that Poisson kriging outperforms other approaches for most scenarios, with a clear benefit when the risk values are spatially correlated. Global empirical Bayes smoothers provide more accurate predictions under the least frequent scenario of spatially random risk. Conclusion The approach presented in this paper enables researchers to incorporate the pattern of spatial dependence of mortality rates into the mapping of risk values and the quantification of the

  16. Aircraft Turbofan Engine Health Estimation Using Constrained Kalman Filtering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops an analytic method of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results obtained from application to a turbofan engine model. This model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.

  17. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  18. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    PubMed Central

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  19. Risk as moral danger: the social and political functions of risk discourse in public health.

    PubMed

    Lupton, D

    1993-01-01

    Risk is a concept with multiple meanings and is ideologically loaded. The author reviews the literature on risk perception and risk as a sociocultural construct, with particular reference to the domain of public health. Pertinent examples of the political and moral function of risk discourse in public health are given. The author concludes that risk discourse is often used to blame the victim, to displace the real reasons for ill-health upon the individual, and to express outrage at behavior deemed socially unacceptable, thereby exerting control over the body politic as well as the body corporeal. Risk discourse is redolent with the ideologies of mortality, danger, and divine retribution. Risk, as it is used in modern society, therefore cannot be considered a neutral term.

  20. Probabilistic health risk assessment of carcinogenic emissions from a MSW gasification plant.

    PubMed

    Lonati, Giovanni; Zanoni, Francesca

    2012-09-01

    Health risk assessment due to the atmospheric emissions of carcinogenic pollutants (PCDD/Fs and Cd) from a waste gasification plant is performed by means of a probabilistic approach based on probability density functions for the description of the input data of the model parameters involved in the assessment. These functions incorporate both the epistemic and stochastic uncertainty of the input data (namely, the emission rate of the pollutants) and of all the parameters used for individual exposure assessment through the pathways of inhalation, soil ingestion and dermal contact, and diet. The uncertainty is propagated throughout the evaluation by Monte Carlo technique, resulting in the probability distribution of the individual risk. The median risk levels nearby the plant are in the 10(-8)-10(-10) range, ten-fold lower than the deterministic estimate based on precautionary values for the input data; however, the very upper percentiles (>95th) of the risk distribution can exceed the conventional 10(-6) reference value. The estimated risk is almost entirely determined by the Cd exposure through the diet; the pathways arising from PCDD/Fs exposure are without any practical significance, suggesting that the emission control should focus on Cd in order to reduce the carcinogenic risk. Risk variance decomposition shows the prevailing influence on the estimated risk of the Cd concentration at the emission stack: thus, for a more accurate risk assessment the efforts should focus primarily on the definition of its probability density function.

  1. Applying quality criteria to exposure in asbestos epidemiology increases the estimated risk.

    PubMed

    Burdorf, Alex; Heederik, Dick

    2011-07-01

    Mesothelioma deaths due to environmental exposure to asbestos in The Netherlands led to parliamentary concern that exposure guidelines were not strict enough. The Health Council of the Netherlands was asked for advice. Its report has recently been published. The question of quality of the exposure estimates was studied more systematically than in previous asbestos meta-analyses. Five criteria of quality of exposure information were applied, and cohort studies that failed to meet these were excluded. For lung cancer, this decreased the number of cohorts included from 19 to 3 and increased the risk estimate 3- to 6-fold, with the requirements for good historical data on exposure and job history having the largest effects. It also suggested that the apparent differences in lung cancer potency between amphiboles and chrysotile may be produced by lower quality studies. A similar pattern was seen for mesothelioma. As a result, the Health Council has proposed that the occupational exposure limit be reduced from 10 000 fibres m(-3) (all types) to 250 f m(-3) (amphiboles), 1300 f m(-3) (mixed fibres), and 2000 f m(-3) (chrysotile). The process illustrates the importance of evaluating quality of exposure in epidemiology since poor quality of exposure data will lead to underestimated risk.

  2. Human Health Toxicity Values in Superfund Risk Assessments

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This memorandum revises the hierarchy of human health toxicity values generally recommended for use inr isk assessments, originally presented in Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I, Part A.

  3. Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The purpose of this document is to describe a Framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of decision‐making processes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  4. Uncertainties associated with assessing the public health risk from Legionella

    PubMed Central

    Whiley, Harriet; Keegan, Alexandra; Fallowfield, Howard; Ross, Kirstin

    2014-01-01

    Legionella is an opportunistic pathogen of public health concern. Current regulatory and management guidelines for the control of this organism are informed by risk assessments. However, there are many unanswered questions and uncertainties regarding Legionella epidemiology, strain infectivity, infectious dose, and detection methods. This review follows the EnHealth Risk Assessment Framework, to examine the current information available regarding Legionella risk and discuss the uncertainties and assumptions. This review can be used as a tool for understanding the uncertainties associated with Legionella risk assessment. It also serves to highlight the areas of Legionella research that require future focus. Improvement of these uncertainties will provide information to enhance risk management practices for Legionella, potentially improving public health protection and reducing the economic costs by streamlining current management practices. PMID:25309526

  5. Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran

    PubMed Central

    Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

    2016-01-01

    Background In recent years, hospitals in Iran – similar to those in other countries – have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. Materials and methods This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts’ opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Results Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Conclusion Information security risk management is not followed by Iran’s hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran’s Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran. PMID:27313481

  6. Quantitative health risk assessment of inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on citizens in Tianjin, China.

    PubMed

    Bai, Zhipeng; Hu, Yandi; Yu, Huan; Wu, Nan; You, Yan

    2009-08-01

    Considering the large amounts of PAHs emitted into the ambient air in China, it is urgent to take preliminary health risk assessment of citizens through inhalation exposure to PAHs in China. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) model was used to get the risk level of Tianjin citizens as an example, and Monte Carlo simulation was adopted to deal with the uncertainty. Exposure analysis found that the average values of B[a]P equivalent (B[a]Peq) daily exposure doses for children in the indoor, traffic and outdoor settings were estimated to be 2,446.8, 478.4, and 321.6 ng day(-1), respectively. And those for adults were 3,344.1, 794.9, and 519.0 ng day(-1), respectively. Much attention must be paid to indoor exposure, as it contributes more than 70% of the B[a]Peq daily exposure dose. ILCR falls within the range of 10(-5)-10(-3), which is higher than the acceptable risk level of 10(-6), and lower than the priority risk level (10(-3)). So this risk should be compared with those of other public health issues in the purpose of risk management. Sensitivity analysis found that the two variables, indoor air PAHs concentration distribution and the cancer slope factor (CSF) of BaP, contribute about 89% of the total risk uncertainty. Thus they are considered as the two main factors influencing the accuracy of the PAHs health risk assessment.

  7. 76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment... availability of the chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document... for the chlorpyrifos reregistration review, preliminary human health risk assessment, established...

  8. Outdoor radioactivity and health risks in Balikesir, northwestern Turkey.

    PubMed

    Kapdan, E; Varinlioglu, A; Karahan, G

    2012-02-01

    External irradiation from radionuclides naturally present in the environment or released from man-made practices or events is usually an important component of the exposure of human populations. These exposures derive primarily from gamma radiation arising from the decay of these radionuclides at locations outside the human body. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the radioactivity levels and health risks due to terrestrial radionuclides in the soil of Balikesir, one of the largest cities of the country, northwestern Turkey. For this purpose, activity concentrations of radionuclides in soil and outdoor gamma dose rates (terrestrial and cosmic) have been investigated in the city of Balikesir. In addition, maps for the radionuclide activity concentrations of soil and the outdoor gamma dose rate distributions have been plotted for the region. The average activities of radionuclides, (238)U, (232)Th, (40)K, (235)U and (137)Cs in the soil were determined to be 37.6 ± 10.8, 54.7 ± 15.1, 674.5 ± 203.2, 3.6 ± 1.6, 3.4 ± 2.2 Bq kg(-1), respectively, in the region. The average outdoor gamma dose rates due to terrestrial and cosmic radiations were found to be 78.5 ± 12.4 and 48.9 ± 5.8 nGy h(-1) with the total of 127.4 ± 18.9 nGy h(-1) in the region. Annual effective dose due to environmental outdoor gamma radiation exposures was determined to be 156.3 nSv. The mean estimated cancer risk values were found to be 0.063 × 10(-2) for the region using risk factors of ICRP 103. The results of the study were discussed with the studies done in other cities of Turkey and the worldwide averages.

  9. Thoracic and respirable particle definitions for human health risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Provides estimates of the thoracic and respirable fractions, for adults and children during typical activities during both nasal and oral inhalation, that may be used in the design of experimental studies and interpretation of evidence of health effects.

  10. Updated Human Health Risk Analyses for Chlorpyrifos

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has revised the human health hazard assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos.

  11. Glutaraldehyde: a potential health risk to nurses

    SciTech Connect

    Newman, M.A.; Kachuba, J.B.

    1992-06-01

    This article discusses the potential toxicity of glutaraldehyde, a chemical commonly used in endoscopy units. The literature review cites adverse health effects experienced by workers exposed to glutaraldehyde. The sampling methodology for glutaraldehyde relative to the Occupational Safety and Health standard for glutaraldehyde is presented. Air monitoring should be performed to assess employee exposure to airborne glutaraldehyde in endoscopy departments. Recommendations for reducing exposure to glutaraldehyde in endoscopy units are included.

  12. Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

    PubMed Central

    Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http

  13. Health Risk Behavior and Sexual Assault Among Ethnically Diverse Women

    PubMed Central

    Littleton, Heather L.; Grills-Taquechel, Amie E.; Buck, Katherine S.; Rosman, Lindsey; Dodd, Julia C.

    2013-01-01

    Sexual assault is associated with a number of health risk behaviors in women. It has been hypothesized that these risk behaviors, such as hazardous drinking, may represent women's attempts to cope with psychological distress, such as symptoms of depression and anxiety. However, extant research has failed to evaluate these relationships among ethnic minority samples or identify the mechanisms responsible for this association. The current study examined sexual assault history and two health risk behaviors (hazardous drinking and engaging in sexual behavior to regulate negative affect) in a diverse sample of 1,620 college women. Depression and anxiety were examined as mediators of the relationship between sexual assault and health risk behaviors. There was evidence of moderated mediation, such that for European American women, but not for ethnic minority women, both forms of psychological distress were significant mediators of the sexual assault/hazardous drinking relationship. In contrast, among all ethnic groups, the relationship between sexual assault and both forms of psychological distress was mediated by the use of sexual behavior as an affect regulation strategy. Results support a need to evaluate the assault experiences of ethnically diverse women, as well as the impact of the assault on their postassault experiences including health risk behaviors and psychological adjustment. Additionally, results suggest that practitioners should carefully assess health risk behaviors among victims of sexual assault and be aware that there may be differences in the risk factors and motives for these behaviors among women of various ethnic backgrounds. PMID:24223467

  14. Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in urban stormwater.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yukun; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Liu, An; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2016-07-01

    Toxic chemical pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) are commonly present in urban stormwater. These pollutants can pose a significant risk to human health and hence a significant barrier for urban stormwater reuse. The primary aim of this study was to develop an approach for quantitatively assessing the risk to human health due to the presence of HMs in stormwater. This approach will lead to informed decision making in relation to risk management of urban stormwater reuse, enabling efficient implementation of appropriate treatment strategies. In this study, risks to human health from heavy metals were assessed as hazard index (HI) and quantified as a function of traffic and land use related parameters. Traffic and land use are the primary factors influencing heavy metal loads in the urban environment. The risks posed by heavy metals associated with total solids and fine solids (<150μm) were considered to represent the maximum and minimum risk levels, respectively. The study outcomes confirmed that Cr, Mn and Pb pose the highest risks, although these elements are generally present in low concentrations. The study also found that even though the presence of a single heavy metal does not pose a significant risk, the presence of multiple heavy metals could be detrimental to human health. These findings suggest that stormwater guidelines should consider the combined risk from multiple heavy metals rather than the threshold concentration of an individual species. Furthermore, it was found that risk to human health from heavy metals in stormwater is significantly influenced by traffic volume and the risk associated with stormwater from industrial areas is generally higher than that from commercial and residential areas.

  15. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of Pollution, Prevention & Toxics (OPPT)'s Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators model (RSEI). The model uses the reported quantities of TRI releases of chemicals to estimate the impacts associated with each type of air release or transfer by every TRI facility.The RSEI was run to generate the estimate risk for each TRI facility in the region. The result from the model is joined to the TRI spatial data. Estimate risk values for each census block group were calculated based on the inverse distance of all the facilities which are within a 50 km radius of the census block group centroid. The estimate risk value for each census block group thus is an aggregated value that takes into account the estimate potential risk of all the facilities within the searching radius (50km).

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in primary health care

    PubMed Central

    Korhonen, Päivi; Vesalainen, Risto; Aarnio, Pertti; Kautiainen, Hannu; Järvenpää, Salme; Kantola, Ilkka

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study aimed at investigating whether cardiovascular risk factors and their impact on total risk estimation differ between men and women. Design Cross-sectional cohort study. Subjects Finnish cardiovascular risk subjects (n = 904) without established cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or known diabetes. Main outcome measures Ankle-brachial index (ABI), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), oral glucose tolerance test, and total cardiovascular risk using SCORE risk charts. Results According to the SCORE risk charts, 27.0% (95% CI 23.1–31.2) of the women and 63.1% (95% CI 58.3–67.7) of the men (p < 0.001) were classified as high-risk subjects. Of the women classified as low-risk subjects according to SCORE, 25% had either subclinical peripheral arterial disease or renal insufficiency. Conclusions The SCORE system does not take into account cardiovascular risk factors typical in women, and thus underestimates their total cardiovascular risk. Measurement of ABI and eGFR in primary care might improve cardiovascular risk assessment. especially in women. PMID:22643155

  17. Health risks associated with swimming at an inland river

    EPA Science Inventory

    Swimming exposure to fecally-contaminated oceans and lakes has been associated with an increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness. Although treated and untreated sewage are often discharged to rivers, the health risks of swimming exposure on rivers has been less frequently ...

  18. Weight Misperception and Health Risk Behaviors among Early Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pasch, Keryn E.; Klein, Elizabeth G.; Laska, Melissa N.; Velazquez, Cayley E.; Moe, Stacey G.; Lytle, Leslie A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine associations between weight misperception and youth health risk and protective factors. Methods: Three thousand ten US seventh-graders (72.1% white, mean age: 12.7 years) self-reported height, weight, risk, and protective factors. Analyses were conducted to determine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between…

  19. Health Risk Behavior and Sexual Assault among Ethnically Diverse Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Littleton, Heather L.; Grills-Taquechel, Amie E.; Buck, Katherine S.; Rosman, Lindsey; Dodd, Julia C.

    2013-01-01

    Sexual assault is associated with a number of health risk behaviors in women. It has been hypothesized that these risk behaviors, such as hazardous drinking, may represent women's attempts to cope with psychological distress, such as symptoms of depression and anxiety. However, extant research has failed to evaluate these relationships among…

  20. Victimization and Health Risk Factors among Weapon-Carrying Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stayton, Catherine; McVeigh, Katharine H.; Olson, E. Carolyn; Perkins, Krystal; Kerker, Bonnie D.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To compare health risks of 2 subgroups of weapon carriers: victimized and nonvictimized youth. Methods: 2003-2007 NYC Youth Risk Behavior Surveys were analyzed using bivariate analyses and multinomial logistic regression. Results: Among NYC teens, 7.5% reported weapon carrying without victimization; 6.9% reported it with victimization.…

  1. Effect Of Ventilation On Chronic Health Risks In Schools And Offices

    SciTech Connect

    Parthasarathy, Srinandini; Fisk, William J.; McKone, Thomas E.

    2013-01-04

    This study provides a risk assessment for chronic health risks from inhalation exposure to indoor air pollutants in offices and schools with a focus how ventilation impacts exposures to, and risks from, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM2.5). We estimate how much health risks could change with varying ventilation rates under two scenarios: (i) halving the measured ventilation rates and (ii) doubling the measured ventilation rates. For the hazard characterization we draw upon prior papers that identified pollutants potentially affecting health with indoor air concentrations responsive to changes in ventilation rates. For exposure assessment we determine representative concentrations of pollutants using data available in current literature and model changes in exposures with changes in ventilation rates. As a metric of disease burden, we use disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to address both cancer and non-cancer effects. We also compare exposures to guidelines published by regulatory agencies to assess chronic health risks. Chronic health risks are driven primarily by particulate matter exposure, with an estimated baseline disease burden of 150 DALYs per 100,000 people in offices and 140 DALYs per 100,000 people in schools. Study results show that PM2.5-related DALYs are not very sensitive to changes in ventilation rates. Filtration is more effective at controlling PM2.5 concentrations and health effects. Non-cancer health effects contribute only a small fraction of the overall chronic health burden of populations in offices and schools (<1 DALY per 100,000 people). Cancer health effects dominate the disease burden in schools (3 DALYs per 100,000) and offices (5 DALYs per 100,000), with formaldehyde being the primary risk driver. In spite of large uncertainties in toxicological data and dose-response modeling, our results support the finding that ventilation rate changes do not have significant impacts on estimated chronic disease

  2. The health risks of radon: The BEIR IV report and beyond

    SciTech Connect

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1989-06-01

    The National Academy of Sciences' BEIR IV Report deals with the health effects in human populations exposed to internally-deposited alpha-emitting radionuclides and their decay products. Quantitative risk estimates for cancer induction are derived, mainly from analyses of epidemiological data. The Report addresses the health outcomes of exposure to radon and its daughters, primarily lung cancer risks of worker exposure to radon progeny in underground mines and in the general public in indoor domestic environments. An excess relative risk model of lung cancer mortality and exposure to radon progeny is developed; this models the excess risk per Working Level Month in terms of time intervals prior to an attained age, and is dependent on time-since-exposure and age at risk. Risk projections are presented and cover exposure situations of current public health concern. For example, the lifetime risk of lung cancer mortality due to lifetime exposure to radon progeny in terms of WLM and alpha-particle dose to the target cells of the bronchial epithelium is estimated to be 350 excess deaths per million person-WLM. Lifetime exposure to 1 WLM y /sub /minus/1/ is estimated to increase the number of deaths due to lung cancer by a factor of about 1.5 over the current rate for both males and females in a population having the current prevalence of cigarette-smoking. Occupational exposure to 4 WLM y/sub /minus/1/ from ages 20 y to 40 y is projected to increase lung cancer deaths by a factor of 1.6 over the current rate of this age cohort in the general population. In all of these cases, most of the increased risk occurs to smokers for who the risk is up to ten times greater than for nonsmokers. 10 refs., 1 tab.

  3. Formula and scale for body surface area estimation in high-risk infants.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Youngmee

    2010-12-01

    Advances in medical technology and the health sciences have lead to a rapid increase in the prevalence and morbidity of high-risk infants with chronic or permanent sequels such as the birth of early preterm infants. A suitable formula is therefore needed for body surface area (BSA) estimation for high-risk infants to more accurately devise therapeutic regimes in clinical practice. A cohort study involving 5014 high-risk infants was conducted to develop a suitable formula for estimating BSA using four of the existing formulas in the literature. BSA of high-risk infants was calculated using the four BSA equations (Boyd-BSA, Dubois-BSA, Meban-BSA, Mosteller-BSA), from which a new calculation, Mean-BSA, was arithmetically derived as a reference BSA measure. Multiple-regression was performed using nonlinear least squares curve fitting corresponding to the trend line and the new equation, Neo-BSA, developed using Excel and SPSS 17.0. The Neo-BSA equation was constructed as follows: Neo-BSA = 5.520 x W(0.5526) x L(0.300). With the assumption of the least square root relation between weight and length, a BSA scale using only weight was fabricated specifically for clinical applications where weight is more available in high-risk infant populations than is length. The validity of Neo-BSA was evaluated against Meban-BSA, the best of the four equations for high-risk infants, as there is a similarity of subjects in the two studies. The other formulas revealed substantial variances in BSA compared to Neo-BSA. This study developed a new surface area equation, Neo-BSA, as the most suitable formula for BSA measurement of high-risk infants in modern-day societies, where an emerging population of newborns with shorten gestational ages are becoming more prevalent as a result of new advances in the health sciences and new development of reproductive technologies. In particular, a scale for 400-7000 g body weight babies derived from the Neo-BSA equation has the clinical advantage of

  4. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  5. The health risks and benefits of cycling in urban environments compared with car use: health impact assessment study

    PubMed Central

    de Nazelle, Audrey; Tainio, Marko; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J

    2011-01-01

    Objective To estimate the risks and benefits to health of travel by bicycle, using a bicycle sharing scheme, compared with travel by car in an urban environment. Design Health impact assessment study. Setting Public bicycle sharing initiative, Bicing, in Barcelona, Spain. Participants 181 982 Bicing subscribers. Main outcomes measures The primary outcome measure was all cause mortality for the three domains of physical activity, air pollution (exposure to particulate matter <2.5 µm), and road traffic incidents. The secondary outcome was change in levels of carbon dioxide emissions. Results Compared with car users the estimated annual change in mortality of the Barcelona residents using Bicing (n=181 982) was 0.03 deaths from road traffic incidents and 0.13 deaths from air pollution. As a result of physical activity, 12.46 deaths were avoided (benefit:risk ratio 77). The annual number of deaths avoided was 12.28. As a result of journeys by Bicing, annual carbon dioxide emissions were reduced by an estimated 9 062 344 kg. Conclusions Public bicycle sharing initiatives such as Bicing in Barcelona have greater benefits than risks to health and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. PMID:21816732

  6. The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

    2011-08-01

    The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

  7. Managing risk selection incentives in health sector reforms.

    PubMed

    Puig-Junoy, J

    1999-01-01

    The object of the paper is to review theoretical and empirical contributions to the optimal management of risk selection incentives ('cream skimming') in health sector reforms. The trade-off between efficiency and risk selection is fostered in health sector reforms by the introduction of competitive mechanisms such as price competition or prospective payment systems. The effects of two main forms of competition in health sector reforms are observed when health insurance is mandatory: competition in the market for health insurance, and in the market for health services. Market and government failures contribute to the assessment of the different forms of risk selection employed by insurers and providers, as the effects of selection incentives on efficiency and their proposed remedies to reduce the impact of these perverse incentives. Two European (Netherlands and Spain) and two Latin American (Chile and Colombia) case studies of health sector reforms are examined in order to observe selection incentives, their effects on efficiency and costs in the health system, and regulation policies implemented in each country to mitigate incentives to 'cream skim' good risks.

  8. Physical Activity Protects against the Health Risks of Obesity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welk, Gregory J.; Blair, Steven N.

    2000-01-01

    This paper reviews the relationships between physical fitness and body composition and their combined effect on health. After discussing the epidemiologic evidence for a protective effect of physical fitness on the health risks associated with obesity, it describes the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study, an ongoing observational study that…

  9. Comparing self-perceived and estimated fracture risk by FRAX® of women with osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Horváth, Csaba; Brodszky, Valentin; Rencz, Fanni; Péntek, Márta

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we compared subjective fracture risks of Hungarian women with osteoporosis to FRAX®-based estimates. Patients with a previous fracture, parental hip fracture, low femoral T-score, higher age, and higher BMI were more likely to underestimate their risks. Patients also failed to associate risk factors with an increased risk of fractures.

  10. Risk Estimates From an Online Risk Calculator Are More Believable and Recalled Better When Expressed as Integers

    PubMed Central

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Waters, Erika A; Gavaruzzi, Teresa; Fagerlin, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Background Online risk calculators offer different levels of precision in their risk estimates. People interpret numbers in varying ways depending on how they are presented, and we do not know how the number of decimal places displayed might influence perceptions of risk estimates. Objective The objective of our study was to determine whether precision (ie, number of decimals) in risk estimates offered by an online risk calculator influences users’ ratings of (1) how believable the estimate is, (2) risk magnitude (ie, how large or small the risk feels to them), and (3) how well they can recall the risk estimate after a brief delay. Methods We developed two mock risk calculator websites that offered hypothetical percentage estimates of participants’ lifetime risk of kidney cancer. Participants were randomly assigned to a condition where the risk estimate value rose with increasing precision (2, 2.1, 2.13, 2.133) or the risk estimate value fell with increasing precision (2, 1.9, 1.87, 1.867). Within each group, participants were randomly assigned one of the four numbers as their first risk estimate, and later received one of the remaining three as a comparison. Results Participants who completed the experiment (N = 3422) were a demographically diverse online sample, approximately representative of the US adult population on age, gender, and race. Participants whose risk estimates had no decimal places gave the highest ratings of believability (F 3,3384 = 2.94, P = .03) and the lowest ratings of risk magnitude (F 3,3384 = 4.70, P = .003). Compared to estimates with decimal places, integer estimates were judged as highly believable by 7%–10% more participants (χ2 3 =17.8, P < .001). When comparing two risk estimates with different levels of precision, large majorities of participants reported that the numbers seemed equivalent across all measures. Both exact and approximate recall were highest for estimates with zero decimals. Odds ratios (OR) for correct

  11. Health aspects of caffeine: benefits and risks.

    PubMed

    Ruxton, C

    This article examines the benefits and risks associated with caffeinated foods and drinks, taking an evidence-based approach to identify appropriate daily caffeine limits. Suggestions are provided on how to structure dietary advice for different patient groups including children, individuals with hypertension, renal patients, athletes and older adults.

  12. Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Consumer Health Care Spending and Risk of Catastrophic Health Costs.

    PubMed

    Nowak, Sarah A; Eibner, Christine; Adamson, David M; Saltzman, Evan

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the likely effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on average annual consumer health care spending and the risk of catastrophic medical costs for the United States overall and in two large states that have decided not to expand their Medicaid programs (Texas and Florida). The ACA will have varied impacts on individuals' and families' spending on health care, depending on income level and on estimated 2016 insurance status without the ACA. The authors find that average out-of-pocket spending is expected to decrease for all groups considered in the analysis, although decreases in out-of-pocket spending will be largest for those who would otherwise be uninsured. People who would otherwise be uninsured who transition to the individual market under the ACA will have higher total health care spending on average after implementation of the ACA because they will now incur the cost of health insurance premiums. The authors also find that risk of catastrophic health care spending will decrease for individuals of all income levels for the insurance transitions considered; decreases will be greatest for those at the lowest income levels. Case studies found that in Texas and Florida, Medicaid expansion would substantially reduce out-of-pocket and total health care spending for those with incomes below 100 percent of the federal poverty level, compared with a scenario in which the ACA is implemented without Medicaid expansion. Expansion would reduce the risk of high medical spending for those covered under Medicaid who would remain uninsured without expansion.

  13. Prevalence of Suicide Risk Factors and Suicide-Related Outcomes in the National Mental Health Study, Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Posada-Villa, Jose; Camacho, Juan Camilo; Valenzuela, Jose Ignacio; Arguello, Arturo; Cendales, Juan Gabriel; Fajardo, Roosevelt

    2009-01-01

    A community survey in 4,426 adults was undertaken as part of the World Mental Health Survey Initiative reporting the prevalence and risk factors for suicide-related outcomes in Colombia. Lifetime prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, attempts, and risk factors for suicide-related outcomes were assessed. Retrospective reports of…

  14. Reevaluation of health risk benchmark for sustainable water practice through risk analysis of rooftop-harvested rainwater.

    PubMed

    Lim, Keah-Ying; Jiang, Sunny C

    2013-12-15

    Health risk concerns associated with household use of rooftop-harvested rainwater (HRW) constitute one of the main impediments to exploit the benefits of rainwater harvesting in the United States. However, the benchmark based on the U.S. EPA acceptable annual infection risk level of ≤1 case per 10,000 persons per year (≤10(-4) pppy) developed to aid drinking water regulations may be unnecessarily stringent for sustainable water practice. In this study, we challenge the current risk benchmark by quantifying the potential microbial risk associated with consumption of HRW-irrigated home produce and comparing it against the current risk benchmark. Microbial pathogen data for HRW and exposure rates reported in literature are applied to assess the potential microbial risk posed to household consumers of their homegrown produce. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) model based on worst-case scenario (e.g. overhead irrigation, no pathogen inactivation) is applied to three crops that are most popular among home gardeners (lettuce, cucumbers, and tomatoes) and commonly consumed raw. The infection risks of household consumers attributed to consumption of these home produce vary with the type of produce. The lettuce presents the highest risk, which is followed by tomato and cucumber, respectively. Results show that the 95th percentile values of infection risk per intake event of home produce are one to three orders of magnitude (10(-7) to 10(-5)) lower than U.S. EPA risk benchmark (≤10(-4) pppy). However, annual infection risks under the same scenario (multiple intake events in a year) are very likely to exceed the risk benchmark by one order of magnitude in some cases. Estimated 95th percentile values of the annual risk are in the 10(-4) to 10(-3) pppy range, which are still lower than the 10(-3) to 10(-1) pppy risk range of reclaimed water irrigated produce estimated in comparable studies. We further discuss the desirability of HRW for irrigating home

  15. Mining the potential interrelationships between human health and ecological risk assessments of metal-contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    Appling, J.W.

    1994-12-31

    Conservative approaches to human health or ecological risk assessment often result in evaluations that indicate a risk at metal concentrations near or below background levels. This presents a complex dilemma to regulators, responsible parties, and the public: How can risk be more realistically estimated so that the public is not unnecessarily alarmed into thinking normal exposures pose abnormal risk, and site remediation can be responsible yet cost-effective? One answer is using-ecological and human health studies together to improve the quality of both types of assessments. Mammalian herbivores and roving children are good spatial and temporal integrators of exposure; biomarkers or Monte Carlo-based models of exposure to herbivores can support realistic estimates of exposure to children. Reduced bioavailability of metals in soils at mining sites is well recognized for many metals and is amenable to study in ecological species; such studies reduce the overestimate of risk to humans through direct contact or exposure via the food chain. Recent and current human health studies of lead and arsenic bioavailability also support ecological assessments. Mixtures of metals pose special challenges because of the potential for antagonistic, additive, or synergistic effects with respect to bioavailability, absorption, distribution, excretion, toxic effects and nutritional or physiological essentiality. Combining results from pharmacokinetic, mechanistic, and environmental studies of mixtures enhances the predictive abilities of risk assessments.

  16. The health risks of new-wave vegetarianism.

    PubMed

    Szabo, L

    1997-05-15

    Many young people call themselves vegetarians because they don't eat meat, but the eating style they are adopting is fraught with health risks. In this article, which won CMAJ's 1996 Army Chouinard Memorial Essay Contest for Canadian journalism students, Laura Brydges Szabo looks at the "new vegetarianism" and the recommendations health care professionals are making to young people intent on following this incomplete diet. The contest encourages journalism students to write on health care topics.

  17. Window panes of eternity. Health, disease, and inherited risk.

    PubMed Central

    Scriver, C. R.

    1982-01-01

    Personal health reflects harmony between individual and experience; it is optimal homeostasis. Disease is an outcome of incongruity leading to dishomeostasis. Relative to earlier times, disease in modern society has higher "heritability" (in the broad meaning of the term). Inherited risks are facts compatible with anticipation and prevention of disease. This viewpoint has major implications for medical practice, deployment of health services, themes of research, and education of health care personnel and citizens. PMID:6763817

  18. Comparison of health risk behavior, awareness, and health benefit beliefs of health science and non-health science students: An international study.

    PubMed

    Peltzer, Karl; Pengpid, Supa; Yung, Tony K C; Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer; Rehman, Rehana

    2016-06-01

    This study determines the differences in health risk behavior, knowledge, and health benefit beliefs between health science and non-health science university students in 17 low and middle income countries. Anonymous questionnaire data were collected in a cross-sectional survey of 13,042 undergraduate university students (4,981 health science and 8,061 non-health science students) from 17 universities in 17 countries across Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Results indicate that overall, health science students had the same mean number of health risk behaviors as non-health science university students. Regarding addictive risk behavior, fewer health science students used tobacco, were binge drinkers, or gambled once a week or more. Health science students also had a greater awareness of health behavior risks (5.5) than non-health science students (4.6). Linear regression analysis found a strong association with poor or weak health benefit beliefs and the health risk behavior index. There was no association between risk awareness and health risk behavior among health science students and an inverse association among non-health science students.

  19. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  20. Estimating the risks of multiple, covarying stressors in the National Lakes Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Lakes Assessment (NLA) used relative and attributable risks to measure the apparent nationwide effects of excess nitrogen, reduced lakeshore habitat, and other stressors, on planktonic assemblages in lakes. The risk measures, borrowed from human health research,...

  1. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System: Selected 2011 National Health Risk Behaviors and Health Outcomes by Race/Ethnicity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) monitors priority health risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death, disability, and social problems among youth and adults in the United States. The national YRBS is conducted every two years during the spring semester and provides data representative of 9th through 12th grade…

  2. Risk equalisation and voluntary health insurance: The South Africa experience.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Heather; Grobler, Pieter

    2010-11-01

    South Africa intends implementing major reforms in the financing of healthcare. Free market reforms in private health insurance in the late 1980s have been reversed by the new democratic government since 1994 with the re-introduction of open enrolment, community rating and minimum benefits. A system of national health insurance with income cross-subsidies, risk-adjusted payments and mandatory membership has been envisaged in policy papers since 1994. Subsequent work has seen the design of a Risk Equalisation Fund intended to operate between competing private health insurance funds. The paper outlines the South African health system and describes the risk equalisation formula that has been developed. The risk factors are age, gender, maternity events, numbers with certain chronic diseases and numbers with multiple chronic diseases. The Risk Equalisation Fund has been operating in shadow mode since 2005 with data being collected but no money changing hands. The South African experience of risk equalisation is of wider interest as it demonstrates an attempt to introduce more solidarity into a small but highly competitive private insurance market. The measures taken to combat over-reporting of chronic disease should be useful for countries or funders considering adding chronic disease to their risk equalisation formulae.

  3. Health Warnings on Alcoholic Beverages: Perceptions of the Health Risks and Intentions towards Alcohol Consumption

    PubMed Central

    Wigg, Sophie; Stafford, Lorenzo D.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Research has demonstrated that packaging which includes pictorial health warnings are more effective in altering smokers’ perceptions and intentions as well as changing smoking behaviours compared to text-only health warnings. However, very few studies have investigated the effectiveness of health warnings on alcoholic beverages Methods Participants (N = 60) viewed alcoholic beverages presenting one of three health warnings (No health warning, Text-only, Pictorial) and then responded to questions relating to level of fear arousal and their perceptions toward alcohol use. Results We found that pictorial health warnings were associated with significantly higher fear arousal, increased perceptions of the health risks of consuming alcohol as well as greater intentions to reduce and quit alcohol consumption compared to the control. Conclusions These novel findings suggest pictorial health warnings on alcoholic beverages may be an important way of making the public aware of the health risks of alcohol consumption. PMID:27105210

  4. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    PubMed

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011).

  5. Chemical speciation of trace metals emitted from Indonesian peat fires for health risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betha, Raghu; Pradani, Maharani; Lestari, Puji; Joshi, Umid Man; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

    2013-03-01

    Regional smoke-induced haze in Southeast Asia, caused by uncontrolled forest and peat fires in Indonesia, is of major environmental and health concern. In this study, we estimated carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk due to exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) as emitted from peat fires at Kalimantan, Indonesia. For the health risk analysis, chemical speciation (exchangeable, reducible, oxidizable, and residual fractions) of 12 trace metals (Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn) in PM2.5 was studied. Results indicate that Al, Fe and Ti together accounted for a major fraction of total metal concentrations (~ 83%) in PM2.5 emissions in the immediate vicinity of peat fires. Chemical speciation reveals that a major proportion of most of the metals, with the exception of Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni and Cd, was present in the residual fraction. The exchangeable fraction of metals, which represents their bioavailability, could play a major role in inducing human health effects of PM2.5. This fraction contained carcinogenic metals such as Cd (39.2 ng m- 3) and Ni (249.3 ng m- 3) that exceeded their WHO guideline values by several factors. Health risk estimates suggest that exposure to PM2.5 emissions in the vicinity of peat fires poses serious health threats.

  6. Apples to apples: the origin and magnitude of differences in asbestos cancer risk estimates derived using varying protocols.

    PubMed

    Berman, D Wayne

    2011-08-01

    Given that new protocols for assessing asbestos-related cancer risk have recently been published, questions arise concerning how they compare to the "IRIS" protocol currently used by regulators. The newest protocols incorporate findings from 20 additional years of literature. Thus, differences between the IRIS and newer Berman and Crump protocols are examined to evaluate whether these protocols can be reconciled. Risks estimated by applying these protocols to real exposure data from both laboratory and field studies are also compared to assess the relative health protectiveness of each protocol. The reliability of risks estimated using the two protocols are compared by evaluating the degree with which each potentially reproduces the known epidemiology study risks. Results indicate that the IRIS and Berman and Crump protocols can be reconciled; while environment-specific variation within fiber type is apparently due primarily to size effects (not addressed by IRIS), the 10-fold (average) difference between amphibole asbestos risks estimated using each protocol is attributable to an arbitrary selection of the lowest of available mesothelioma potency factors in the IRIS protocol. Thus, the IRIS protocol may substantially underestimate risk when exposure is primarily to amphibole asbestos. Moreover, while the Berman and Crump protocol is more reliable than the IRIS protocol overall (especially for predicting amphibole risk), evidence is presented suggesting a new fiber-size-related adjustment to the Berman and Crump protocol may ultimately succeed in reconciling the entire epidemiology database. However, additional data need to be developed before the performance of the adjusted protocol can be fully validated.

  7. Use of microbial risk assessment to inform the national estimate of acute gastrointestinal illness attributable to microbes in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Soller, Jeffrey A

    2006-01-01

    Microbial risk assessment (MRA) evaluates the likelihood of adverse human health effects that occur following exposure to pathogenic microorganisms. This paper focuses on the potential use of MRA to provide insight to the national estimate of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in the United States among persons served by public water systems. This article defines MRA, describes how MRA is implemented, provides an overview of the field of MRA and discusses how MRA may be useful for characterizing the national estimate. Communities served by drinking water systems with relatively contaminated source waters, sub-standard treatment facilities, and/or contamination problems in their distribution systems are subject to higher risks than communities where such issues are less of a concern. Further, the risk of illness attributable to pathogens in drinking water in each community can be thought of as the sum of the risk from the treated drinking water and the risk from the distribution system. Pathogen-specific MRAS could be developed to characterize the risk associated with each of these components; however, these assessments are likely to under-estimate the total risk from all pathogens attributable to drinking water. Potential methods for developing such MRAs are discussed along with their associated limitations.

  8. Health Risks and Adverse Reactions to Functional Foods.

    PubMed

    Ameratunga, Rohan; Crooks, Christine; Simmons, Greg; Woon, See-Tarn

    2016-01-01

    Functional foods have become increasingly popular with consumers anxious to mitigate the effects of an unhealthy lifestyle or aging. In spite of attractive health claims, these products do not have legal or regulatory status in most countries and are regulated through their health claims. Regulation of functional foods by health claims does not address health risks and adverse effects of these products. In this essay regulatory aspects of functional foods are reviewed along with adverse effects published in the peer-reviewed literature. We detail why the lack of an internationally accepted definition of functional foods places consumers at risk of adverse outcomes. Our review will assist regulatory agencies, manufacturers and consumer groups to assess the benefits and reduce the risks associated with these products.

  9. Risk Selection under Public Health Insurance with Opt-Out.

    PubMed

    Panthöfer, Sebastian

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies risk selection between public and private health insurance when some, but not all, individuals can opt out of otherwise mandatory public insurance. Using a theoretical model, I show that public insurance is adversely selected when insurers and insureds are symmetrically informed about health-related risks, and that there can be adverse or advantageous selection when insureds are privately informed. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, I find that (i) public insurance is, on balance, adversely selected under the German public health insurance with opt out scheme, (ii) individuals advantageously select public insurance based on risk aversion and residential location, and (iii) there is suggestive evidence of asymmetric information in the market for private health insurance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

    PubMed Central

    McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

  11. Infant mental health promotion and the discourse of risk.

    PubMed

    Lawless, Angela; Coveney, John; MacDougall, Colin

    2014-03-01

    The field of infant mental health promotion has rapidly developed in academia, health policy and practice. Although there are roots in earlier childhood health and welfare movements, recent developments in infant mental health promotion are distinct and different. This article examines the development and practice of infant mental health promotion in South Australia. A regional, intersectoral forum with a focus on families and young children was used as a case study. In-depth interviews with forum members were analysed using a governmentality lens. Participants identified a range of risks to the healthy development of the infant. The study suggests that the construction of risk acts as a technique of governing, providing the rationale for intervention for the child, the mother and the public's good. It places responsibility on parents to self-govern. Although the influence of broader social contexts is acknowledged, the problematisation of mothering as risk shifts the focus to individual capacity, rather than encompassing the systems and social conditions that support healthy relationships. This research suggests that the representations of risk are a pervasive and potent influence that can act to undermine health promotion efforts that seek to empower and enable people to have more control over their own health.

  12. Environmental risks and children's health: What can PRAMS tell us?

    PubMed Central

    Korfmacher, Katrina; Suter, Barbara J.; Cai, Xueya; Brownson, Susan A.; Dozier, Ann M.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Environmental exposures during pregnancy have a lasting impact on children's health. We combined environmental and maternal risk factor survey data to inform efforts to protect children's health. We made recommendations for future use of such data. Methods A modified version of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System(PRAMS) mail survey was conducted based on weighted sampling design with low-income and non-low income women in Monroe County, NY (1022 respondents). A series of environmental questions were included in the questionnaire. Data were analyzed using chi-square tests and Poisson loglinear regression model to identify patterns in environmental health risk and sociodemographic characteristics. Results We identified women who rented their homes, had lower incomes, and lived in inner city zip codes as “high environmental health risk” (HEHR). HEHR respondents were more likely to report that a health care provider talked with them about lead and on average reported more behaviors to protect their children from lead poisoning. Conclusions Combining environmental and perinatal risk factor data could yield important recommendations for medical practice, health education, and policy development. However, at present PRAMS gathers only limited and inconsistent environmental data. We found that existing PRAMS environmental questions are insufficient. Further work is needed to develop updated and more comprehensive environmental health survey questions and implement them consistently across the country. PMID:23955384

  13. Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

  14. Human Health Risk Assessment of Trichloroethylene from Industrial Complex A

    PubMed Central

    Sin, Saemi

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the human health risks of trichloroethylene from Industrial Complex A. The excessive carcinogenic risks for central tendency exposure were 1.40 × 10?5 for male and female residents in the vicinity of Industrial Complex A. The excessive cancers risk for reasonable maximum exposure were 2.88 × 10?5 and 1.97 × 10?5 for males and females, respectively. These values indicate that there are potential cancer risks for exposure to these concentrations. The hazard index for central tendency exposure to trichloroethylene was 1.71 for male and female residents. The hazard indexes for reasonable maximum exposure were 3.27 and 2.41 for males and females, respectively. These values were over one, which is equivalent to the threshold value. This result showed that adverse cancer and non-cancer health effects may occur and that some risk management of trichloroethylene from Industrial Complex A was needed. PMID:24278607

  15. Comparison of the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES) With FRAX in Identifying Men at Risk for Osteoporosis

    PubMed Central

    Cass, Alvah R.; Shepherd, Angela J.; Asirot, Rechelle; Mahajan, Manju; Nizami, Maimoona

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE We wanted to compare the male osteoporosis risk estimation score (MORES) with the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in screening men for osteoporosis. METHODS This study reports analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a nationally representative sample of the US population, comparing the operating characteristics of FRAX and MORES to identify men at risk for osteoporosis using a subset of 1,498 men, aged 50 years and older, with a valid dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan. DXA-derived bone mineral density using a T score of −2.5 or lower at either the femoral neck or total hip defined the diagnosis of osteoporosis. Outcomes included the operating characteristics, area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve, and agreement of the FRAX and MORES. RESULTS Sixty-seven (4.5%) of the 1,498 men had osteoporosis of the hip. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for the MORES were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.87–0.99), 0.61 (95% CI, 0.58–0.63), and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84–0.91), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC for the FRAX were 0.39 (95% CI, 0.27–0.51), 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88–0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75–0.84) respectively. Agreement was poor. CONCLUSIONS Compared with the MORES, the FRAX underperformed as a screening strategy for osteoporosis using the threshold score suggested by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). An integrated approach that uses the MORES to determine which men should have a DXA scan and the FRAX to guide treatment decisions, based on the risk of a future fracture, identified 82% of men who were candidates for treatments based on National Osteoporosis Foundation guidelines. PMID:27401426

  16. Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    We present a probabilistic framework for assessing human health risk due to groundwater contamination. Our goal is to quantify how physical hydrogeological and biochemical parameters control the magnitude and uncertainty of human health risk. Our methodology captures the whole risk chain from the aquifer contamination to the tap water assumption by human population. The contaminant concentration, the key parameter for the risk estimation, is governed by the interplay between the large-scale advection, caused by heterogeneity and the degradation processes strictly related to the local scale dispersion processes. The core of the hazard identification and of the methodology is the reactive transport model: erratic displacement of contaminant in groundwater, due to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity (K), is characterized by a first-order Lagrangian stochastic model; different dynamics are considered as possible ways of biodegradation in aerobic and anaerobic conditions. With the goal of quantifying uncertainty, the Beta distribution is assumed for the concentration probability density function (pdf) model, while different levels of approximation are explored for the estimation of the one-point concentration moments. The information pertaining the flow and transport is connected with a proper dose response assessment which generally involves the estimation of physiological parameters of the exposed population. Human health response depends on the exposed individual metabolism (e.g. variability) and is subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the health parameters are intrinsically a stochastic. As a consequence, we provide an integrated in a global probabilistic human health risk framework which allows the propagation of the uncertainty from multiple sources. The final result, the health risk pdf, is expressed as function of a few relevant, physically-based parameters such as the size of the injection area, the Péclet number, the K structure metrics and

  17. Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    PubMed

    Tseng, Linda Y; Jiang, Sunny C

    2012-05-01

    Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation.

  18. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  19. In vitro assessment of equivalence of occupational health risk: welders.

    PubMed Central

    Stern, R M

    1983-01-01

    The possibility of using in vitro testing to determine the equivalence of risk for various occupational groups is discussed. In the absence of epidemiological evidence or relevant animal in vivo bioassays on which to determine the health effects of specific occupational exposures, it is proposed to use similarities in the in vitro response to substances with known (or strongly suspected) and unknown risk to demonstrate their risk equivalence. Identification and evaluation of a high risk "hot spot" due to exposure to Cr(VI) for stainless steel welders is discussed in terms of recent developments in collection, analysis and bioassay of welding fumes. PMID:6641655

  20. Environmental Risks to Public Health in the United Arab Emirates: A Quantitative Assessment and Strategic Plan

    PubMed Central

    Farah, Zeinab S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Environmental risks to health in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted rapidly from infectious to noninfectious diseases as the nation has developed at an unprecedented rate. In response to public concerns over newly emerging environmental risks, the Environment Agency–Abu Dhabi commissioned a multidisciplinary environmental health strategic planning project. Objectives: In order to develop the environmental health strategic plan, we sought to quantify the illnesses and premature deaths in the UAE attributable to 14 environmental pollutant categories, prioritize these 14 risk factors, and identify interventions. Methods: We estimated the disease burden imposed by each risk factor using an attributable fraction approach, and we prioritized the risks using an empirically tested stakeholder engagement process. We then engaged government personnel, scientists, and other stakeholders to identify interventions. Results: The UAE’s environmental disease burden is low by global standards. Ambient air pollution is the leading contributor to premature mortality [~ 650 annual deaths; 95% confidence interval (CI): 140, 1,400]. Risk factors leading to > 10,000 annual health care facility visits included occupational exposures, indoor air pollution, drinking water contamination, seafood contamination, and ambient air pollution. Among the 14 risks considered, on average, outdoor air pollution was ranked by the stakeholders as the highest priority (mean rank, 1.4; interquartile range, 1–2) and indoor air pollution as the second-highest priority (mean rank 3.3; interquartile range, 2–4). The resulting strategic plan identified 216 potential interventions for reducing environmental risks to health. Conclusions: The strategic planning exercise described here provides a framework for systematically deciding how to invest public funds to maximize expected returns in environmental health, where returns are measured in terms of reductions in a population

  1. Compounding conservatisms: EPA's health risk assessment methods

    SciTech Connect

    Stackelberg, K. von; Burmaster, D.E. )

    1993-03-01

    Superfund conjures up images of hazardous waste sites, which EPA is spending billions of dollars to remediate. One of the law's most worrisome effects is that it drains enormous economic resources without returning commensurate benefits. In a Sept. 1, 1991, front page article in The New York Times, experts argued that most health dangers at Superfund sites could be eliminated for a fraction of the billions that will be spent cleaning up the 1,200 high-priority sites across the country. Even EPA has suggested that the Superfund program may receive disproportionate resources, compared with other public health programs, such as radon in houses, the diminishing ozone layer and occupational diseases. Public opinion polls over the last decade consistently have mirrored the public's vast fear of hazardous waste sites, a fear as great as that held for nuclear power plants. Fear notwithstanding, the high cost of chosen remedies at given sites may have less to do with public health goals than with the method EPA uses to translate them into acceptable contaminant concentrations in soil, groundwater and other environmental media.

  2. Methods of Economic Valuation of The Health Risks Associated with Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shalhevet, S.; Haruvy, N.

    The worldwide market for nanomaterials is growing rapidly, but relatively little is still known about the potential risks associated with these materials. The potential health hazards associated with exposure to nanomaterials may lead in the future to increased health costs as well as increased economic costs to the companies involved, as has happened in the past in the case of asbestos. Therefore, it is important to make an initial estimate of the potential costs associated with these health hazards, and to prepare ahead with appropriate health insurance for individuals and financial insurance for companies. While several studies have examined the environmental and health hazards of different nanomaterials by performing life cycle impact assessments, so far these studies have concentrated on the cost of production, and did not estimate the economic impact of the health hazards. This paper discusses methods of evaluating the economic impact of potential health hazards on the public. The proposed method is based on using life cycle impact assessment studies of nanomaterials to estimate the DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) associated with the increased probability of these health hazards. The economic valuation of DALY's can be carried out based on the income lost and the costs of medical treatment. The total expected increase in cost depends on the increase in the statistical probability of each disease.

  3. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals

    PubMed Central

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand’s burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  4. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    PubMed

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  5. Insomnia risks and costs: health, safety, and quality of life.

    PubMed

    Rosekind, Mark R; Gregory, Kevin B

    2010-08-01

    The effect of insomnia on next-day functioning, health, safety, and quality of life results in a substantial societal burden and economic cost. The annual direct cost of insomnia has been estimated in the billions of US dollars and is attributed to the association of insomnia with the increased risk of certain psychiatric and medical comorbidities that result in increased healthcare service utilization. It is well known that psychiatric conditions, anxiety and depression in particular, are comorbid with insomnia. However, emerging data have shown links with several common and costly medical conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. Furthermore, studies show that patients who have insomnia have more emergency department and physician visits, laboratory tests, and prescription drug use than those who do not have insomnia, increasing direct and indirect consumption of healthcare resources. Insomnia also has been shown to negatively affect daytime functioning, including workplace productivity, as well as workplace and public safety. These daytime effects of insomnia are translated into indirect costs that are reportedly higher than the direct costs of this disorder. These observations have significant implications for managed care organizations and healthcare providers. Improvements in diagnosing and treating insomnia can significantly reduce the healthcare cost of insomnia and its comorbid disorders, while providing additional economic benefits from improved daytime functioning and from increased productivity.

  6. Assessment and management of residential radon health risks: a report from the health Canada radon workshop.

    PubMed

    Tracy, Bliss L; Krewski, Daniel; Chen, Jing; Zielinski, Jan M; Brand, Kevin P; Meyerhof, Dorothy

    2006-04-01

    Epidemiologic studies of uranium miners and other underground miners have consistently shown miners exposed to high levels of radon to be at increased risk of lung cancer. More recently, concern has arisen about lung cancer risks among people exposed to lower levels of radon in homes. The current Canadian guideline for residential radon exposure was set in 1988 at 800 Bq/m(3). Because of the accumulation of a considerable body of new scientific evidence on radon lung cancer risks since that time, Health Canada sponsored a workshop to review the current state-of-the-science on radon health risks. The specific objectives of the workshop were (1) to collect and assess scientific information relevant to setting national radon policy in Canada, and (2) to gather information on social, political, and operational considerations in setting national policy. The workshop, held on 3-4 March 2004, was attended by 38 invited scientists, regulators, and other stakeholders from Canada and the United States. The presentations on the first day dealt primarily with scientific issues. The combined analysis of North American residential radon and lung cancer studies was reviewed. The analysis confirmed a small but detectable increase in lung cancer risk at residential exposure levels. Current estimates suggest that radon in homes is responsible for approximately 10% of all lung cancer deaths in Canada, making radon the second leading cause of lung cancer after tobacco smoking. This was followed by a perspective from an UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation) working group on radon. There were two presentations on occupational exposures to radon and two presentations considered the possibility of radon as a causative factor for cardiovascular disease and for cancer in other organs besides the lung. The possible contribution of environmental tobacco smoke to lung cancers in nonsmokers was also considered. Areas for future research were identified

  7. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  8. Exposure Estimation for Risk Assessment of the Phthalate Incident in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chu-Chih; Wang, Shu-Li; Wu, Ming-Tsang; Wang, Yin-Han; Huang, Po-Chin; Chen, Bai-Hsiun; Sun, Chien-Wen; Ho, Chi-Kung; Shih, Yang-Chih; Shiu, Ming-Neng; Pan, Wen-Harn; Chen, Mei-Lien; Lee, Ching-Chang; Hsiung, Chao A.

    2016-01-01

    Background In May 2011, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalates (DEHP) and, to a lesser extent, di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) were found to have been illegally used for many years in Taiwan as clouding agents in foods including sports drinks, juice beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam/nectar/jelly, and health or nutrient supplements. Objective To estimate the DEHP exposure for the study participants for the follow-up epidemiological study and health risk assessment. Methods A total of 347 individuals possibly highly exposed to phthalate-tainted foods participated in the study. Exposure assessment was performed based on the participants' responses to a structured questionnaire, self-report of exposure history, urinary metabolite concentrations, and DEHP concentration information in 2449 food records. A Bayesian statistical approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was employed to deal with the uncertainties in the DEHP concentrations of the contaminated foods and the participants' likelihood of being exposed. Results An estimated 37% and 15% of children younger than 12 years old were exposed to DEHP at medium (20–50 μg / kg_bw / day) and high AvDIs (50–100 μg / kg_bw / day), respectively, prior to the episode (9% and 3% in adults, respectively). Moreover, 11% of children and 1% of adults were highly exposed (> 100 μg / kg_bw / day), with a maximum of 414.1 μg / kg_bw / day and 126.4 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively. Conclusions The phthalate exposure-associated adverse health effects for these participants warrant further investigation. The estimation procedure may be applied to other exposure assessment with various sources of uncertainties. PMID:26960145

  9. A public health context for residual risk assessment and risk management under the clean air act.

    PubMed

    Charnley, G; Goldstein, B D

    1998-09-01

    The 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act required the EPA to institute new pollution control technology requirements for industrial sources of air pollution. In part because agreement could not be reached on the best way for the EPA to determine whether any significant risks to human health will remain after the technology controls are in place, the amendments also created a Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management and gave the commission a broad mandate to review and make recommendations concerning risk assessment and risk management in federal regulatory programs. In its March 1997 final report to Congress and the administration, the commission recommended a tiered approach to assessing such residual risks. That approach included the idea that when decisions about managing residual risks are made, emissions should be evaluated in the context of other sources of air pollution. Evaluating risks in their larger contexts is consistent with what the commission called a public health approach to environmental risk management. This paper describes the public health approach and how it applies to evaluating residual risks under the Clean Air Act.

  10. DALY-Based Health Risk Assessment of Construction Noise in Beijing, China

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Jun; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Zhihui

    2016-01-01

    Noise produced by construction activities has become the second most serious acoustic polluting element in China. To provide industry practitioners with a better understanding of the health risks of construction noise and to aid in creating environmentally friendly construction plans during early construction stages, we developed a quantitative model to assess the health impairment risks (HIA) associated with construction noise for individuals living adjacent to construction sites. This model classifies noise-induced health impairments into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, sleep disturbance, and annoyance, and uses disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as an indicator of damage. Furthermore, the value of a statistical life (VSL) is used to transform DALYs into a monetary value based on the affected demographic characteristics, thereby offering policy makers a reliable theoretical foundation for establishing reasonable standards to compensate residents suffering from construction noise. A practical earthwork project in Beijing is used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The results indicate that construction noise could bring significant health risks to the neighboring resident community, with an estimated 34.51 DALYs of health damage and 20.47 million yuan in social costs. In particular, people aged 45–54 are most vulnerable to construction noise, with the greatest health risks being caused by sleep disturbance. PMID:27792207

  11. DALY-Based Health Risk Assessment of Construction Noise in Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Jun; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Zhihui

    2016-10-26

    Noise produced by construction activities has become the second most serious acoustic polluting element in China. To provide industry practitioners with a better understanding of the health risks of construction noise and to aid in creating environmentally friendly construction plans during early construction stages, we developed a quantitative model to assess the health impairment risks (HIA) associated with construction noise for individuals living adjacent to construction sites. This model classifies noise-induced health impairments into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, sleep disturbance, and annoyance, and uses disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as an indicator of damage. Furthermore, the value of a statistical life (VSL) is used to transform DALYs into a monetary value based on the affected demographic characteristics, thereby offering policy makers a reliable theoretical foundation for establishing reasonable standards to compensate residents suffering from construction noise. A practical earthwork project in Beijing is used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. The results indicate that construction noise could bring significant health risks to the neighboring resident community, with an estimated 34.51 DALYs of health damage and 20.47 million yuan in social costs. In particular, people aged 45-54 are most vulnerable to construction noise, with the greatest health risks being caused by sleep disturbance.

  12. Minimum Expected Risk Estimation for Near-neighbor Classification

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-04-01

    can be interpreted within an estimation framework proposed by Carnap in 1952. Although Carnap’s views were not Bayesian, he proposed a general...279]. Carnap noted that there were two extremes to the multinomial estimation problem ( Carnap and Jaynes both gave binomial examples, but their logic... Carnap refers to as a logical factor, which corresponds to an uninformed guess, such as the estimate θ̂g = 1/G. Carnap noted that experts in his time

  13. Food safety risks and consumer health.

    PubMed

    Chassy, Bruce M

    2010-11-30

    The major food safety risks are not eating a healthy diet, and failure to avoid foodborne illness. Over one billion people in the world suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition. Nutritionally enhanced transgenic crops such as Golden Rice are one potential strategy for reducing malnutrition in the world. Transgenic crops are subjected to a rigorous pre-market safety assessment. The safety of novel proteins and other products is established, and through compositional analysis and animal studies, the safety of any observed changes is evaluated. These studies provide evidence that the new product is as safe as, or safer than, comparable varieties. It must be asked, however, if this rigorous analysis is necessary, because unregulated crops produced by other breeding methods also undergo genetic changes and contain unintended effects. Golden Rice poses infinitesimally small, if any, risk to consumers whilst it has the potential to spare millions of lives each year. However, because it is a transgenic crop, it cannot be deployed without years of expensive pre-market safety review. Paradoxically, if Golden Rice had been produced by less precise conventional methods of breeding, it would already be in the hands of poor farmers. It is concluded that the hyper-precautionary regulatory process applied to transgenic crops works to the extreme disadvantage of the hungry and the poor.

  14. Improved risk estimated from carbon tetrachloride. Annual progress report, October 1, 1996--September 30, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.

    1997-10-27

    'Carbon tetrachloride (CCl{sub 4}) has been used extensively within the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume user of CCl{sub 4} in the US, with 5,000 gallons used there in 1977 alone. At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl{sub 4} were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl{sub 4} in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford. facility have exceeded the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude. High levels of CCl{sub 4} at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl{sub 4} cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates which assume that CCl{sub 4} is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl{sub 4}. Specifically, the authors will determine the toxicokinetics of inhaled and ingested CCl{sub 4} in F344/Crl rats, B6C3F1 mice, and Syrian hamsters. They will also evaluate species differences in the metabolism of CCl{sub 4} by rats, mice, hamsters, and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all these studies. This information will be used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). They will also provide scientific evidence that CCl{sub 4} , like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the studies outlined in this proposal will provide the exact types of information needed to enable refined cancer risk estimates for CCl{sub 4} under the new guidelines for risk assessment proposed by the

  15. Nanoparticles – known and unknown health risks

    PubMed Central

    Hoet, Peter HM; Brüske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Salata, Oleg V

    2004-01-01

    Manmade nanoparticles range from the well-established multi-ton production of carbon black and fumed silica for applications in plastic fillers and car tyres to microgram quantities of fluorescent quantum dots used as markers in biological imaging. As nano-sciences are experiencing massive investment worldwide, there will be a further rise in consumer products relying on nanotechnology. While benefits of nanotechnology are widely publicised, the discussion of the potential effects of their widespread use in the consumer and industrial products are just beginning to emerge. This review provides comprehensive analysis of data available on health effects of nanomaterials. PMID:15588280

  16. Health risk assessment for residents exposed to atmospheric diesel exhaust particles in southern region of Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min; Tsai, Ying-I.; Cheng, Man-Ting; Chou, Wei-Chun

    2014-03-01

    Evidence shows a strong association among air pollution, oxidative stress (OS), deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) damage, and diseases. Recent studies indicated that the aging, human neurodegenerative diseases and cancers resulted from mitochondrial dysfunction and OS. The purpose of this study is to provide a probabilistic risk assessment model to quantify the atmospheric diesel exhaust particles (DEP)-induced pre-cancer biomarker response and cancer incidence risk for residents in south Taiwan. We conducted entirely monthly particulate matter sampling data at five sites in Kaohsiung of south Taiwan in the period 2002-2003. Three findings were found: (i) the DEP dose estimates and cancer risk quantification had heterogeneously spatiotemporal difference in south Taiwan, (ii) the pre-cancer DNA damage biomarker and cancer incidence estimates had a positive yet insignificant association, and (iii) all the estimates of cancer incidence in south Taiwan populations fell within and slight lower than the values from previous cancer epidemiological investigations. In this study, we successfully assessed the tumor incidence for residents posed by DEP exposure in south Taiwan compared with the epidemiological approach. Our approach provides a unique way for assessing human health risk for residences exposed to atmospheric DEP depending on specific combinations of local and regional conditions. Our work implicates the importance of incorporating both environmental and health risk impacts into models of air pollution exposure to guide adaptive mitigation strategies.

  17. Risk and Management of Blood-Borne Infections in Health Care Workers

    PubMed Central

    Beltrami, Elise M.; Williams, Ian T.; Shapiro, Craig N.; Chamberland, Mary E.

    2000-01-01

    Exposure to blood-borne pathogens poses a serious risk to health care workers (HCWs). We review the risk and management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in HCWs and also discuss current methods for preventing exposures and recommendations for postexposure prophylaxis. In the health care setting, blood-borne pathogen transmission occurs predominantly by percutaneous or mucosal exposure of workers to the blood or body fluids of infected patients. Prospective studies of HCWs have estimated that the average risk for HIV transmission after a percutaneous exposure is approximately 0.3%, the risk of HBV transmission is 6 to 30%, and the risk of HCV transmission is approximately 1.8%. To minimize the risk of blood-borne pathogen transmission from HCWs to patients, all HCWs should adhere to standard precautions, including the appropriate use of hand washing, protective barriers, and care in the use and disposal of needles and other sharp instruments. Employers should have in place a system that includes written protocols for prompt reporting, evaluation, counseling, treatment, and follow-up of occupational exposures that may place a worker at risk of blood-borne pathogen infection. A sustained commitment to the occupational health of all HCWs will ensure maximum protection for HCWs and patients and the availability of optimal medical care for all who need it. PMID:10885983

  18. Assessing health risk due to exposure to arsenic in drinking water in Hanam Province, Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Huy, Tung Bui; Tuyet-Hanh, Tran Thi; Johnston, Richard; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

    2014-07-24

    We assessed health risks related to Arsenic (As) in contaminated drinking water in Hanam, applying the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework, which promotes stakeholder involvement in risk assessments. As concentrations in 300 tube-well water samples, before and after filtration, were analyzed and the water consumption levels in 150 households were estimated. Skin cancer risk was characterized using Cancer Slope Factor index and lifetime average daily dose with a probabilistic approach. The results showed that arsenic concentrations in tube-well water ranged from 8-579 ppb (mean 301 ppb) before filtration and current sand filters used by the households did not meet the standard for As removal. Arsenic daily consumption of 40% of the adults exceeded the level of TDI (Tolerable Daily Intake) at 1 µg/kg/day. The average skin cancer risk in adults due to consuming filtered tube-well water for drinking purpose were 25.3 × 10-5 (using only well water) and 7.6 × 10-5 (using both well and rain water). The skin cancer risk would be 11.5 times higher if the water was not filtered. Improvement of filtration measures or the replacement of the current drinking water sources to minimize the health risks to the local population is urgently needed.

  19. Assessing Health Risk due to Exposure to Arsenic in Drinking Water in Hanam Province, Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Bui Huy, Tung; Tuyet-Hanh, Tran Thi; Johnston, Richard; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

    2014-01-01

    We assessed health risks related to Arsenic (As) in contaminated drinking water in Hanam, applying the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework, which promotes stakeholder involvement in risk assessments. As concentrations in 300 tube-well water samples, before and after filtration, were analyzed and the water consumption levels in 150 households were estimated. Skin cancer risk was characterized using Cancer Slope Factor index and lifetime average daily dose with a probabilistic approach. The results showed that arsenic concentrations in tube-well water ranged from 8–579 ppb (mean 301 ppb) before filtration and current sand filters used by the households did not meet the standard for As removal. Arsenic daily consumption of 40% of the adults exceeded the level of TDI (Tolerable Daily Intake) at 1 µg/kg/day. The average skin cancer risk in adults due to consuming filtered tube-well water for drinking purpose were 25.3 × 10−5 (using only well water) and 7.6 × 10−5 (using both well and rain water). The skin cancer risk would be 11.5 times higher if the water was not filtered. Improvement of filtration measures or the replacement of the current drinking water sources to minimize the health risks to the local population is urgently needed. PMID:25062276

  20. Health, safety and environmental risk management in laboratory fields

    PubMed Central

    Yarahmadi, Rasoul; Moridi, Parvin; Roumiani, YarAllah

    2016-01-01

    Background: Research project risks are uncertain contingent events or situations that, if transpire, will have positive or negative effects on objectives of a project. The Management of Health and Safety at Work (MHSW) Regulations 1999 require all employers and the self-employed persons to assess the risks from their work on anyone who may be affected by their activities. Risk assessment is the first step in risk-management procedure, and due to its importance, it has been deemed to be a vital process while having a unique place in the researchbased management systems. Methods: In this research, a two-pronged study was carried out. Firstly, health and safety issues were studied and analyzed by means of ISO 14121. Secondly, environmental issues were examined with the aid of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Both processes were utilized to determine the risk level independently for each research laboratory and corrective measure priorities in each field (laboratory). Results: Data analysis showed that the total main and inherent risks in laboratory sites reduced by 38% to 86%. Upon comparing the average risk levels before and after implementing the control and protective actions utilizing risk management approaches which were separate from health, safety and environmental aspects, a highly effective significance (p<0.001) was obtained for inherent risk reduction. Analysis of health, safety and environmental control priorities with the purpose of comparing the ratio of the number of engineering measures to the amount of management ones showed a relatively significant increase. Conclusion: The large number of engineering measures was attributed to the employment of a variety of timeworn machinery (old technologies) along with using devices without basic protection components. PMID:27284544

  1. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probabi...

  2. Bomb survivor selection and consequences for estimates of population cancer risks.

    PubMed

    Little, M P; Charles, M W

    1990-12-01

    Health records of the Japanese bomb survivor population [with the 1965 (T65D) and 1986 (DS86) dosimetry systems] have been analyzed and some evidence found for the selection effect hypothesized by Stewart and Kneale. This is found to be significant in only the first of the periods examined (1950-1958), and the effect diminishes in magnitude thereafter. There are indications that the effect might be an artifact of the T65D dosimetry, in which it is observed more strongly than in the DS86 data. There is no evidence to suggest that selection on this basis might confer correspondingly reduced susceptibility to radiation-induced cancer. If, however, one makes this assumption, as suggested by Stewart and Kneale, then current estimates of population cancer risks might need to be inflated by between 5% and 35% (for excess cancer deaths, Gy-1) or between 8% and 40% (for years of life lost, Gy-1) to account for this. It is likely that these figures, even assuming them not to be simply an artifact of the T65D dosimetry, overestimate the degree of adjustment required to the risk estimates.

  3. Pathways from Childhood Abuse and Other Adversities to Adult Health Risks: The Role of Adult Socioeconomic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

    2015-01-01

    Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks – depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions— marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status—mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15–20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact. PMID:26059537

  4. Pathways from childhood abuse and other adversities to adult health risks: The role of adult socioeconomic conditions.

    PubMed

    Font, Sarah A; Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks-depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions-marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status-mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15-20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional, and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact.

  5. Global health risks and cosmopolitisation: from emergence to interference.

    PubMed

    Figuié, Muriel

    2013-02-01

    According to Beck's 'World at Risk' theory, global risks push nations towards a cosmopolitisation of their health policy and open opportunities for a democratic turn. This article provides an empirical analysis of Beck's theory, based on the experience of Vietnamese authorities from 2003 to 2007 in managing the emerging avian flu virus. It shows how Vietnam's framing of avian flu has shifted, under the pressure from international organisations and the US administration, from an epizootic and zoonotic risk (or a classic risk) to a pandemic threat (or a late modern risk). Vietnam's response was part of its overall strategy to join the World Trade Organization and it was limited by Vietnam's defence of its sovereignty. This strategy has been successful for Vietnam but has limited the possibility of cosmopolitan and democratic transformations. The case study highlights the constructed dimension of risks of late modernity and their possible instrumentalisation: it minimises the role of a community of fear relative to a community of trade.

  6. [Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER Statement].

    PubMed

    Stevens, Gretchen A; Alkema, Leontine; Black, Robert E; Boerma, J Ties; Collins, Gary S; Ezzati, Majid; Grove, John T; Hogan, Daniel R; Hogan, Margaret C; Horton, Richard; Lawn, Joy E; Marušic, Ana; Mathers, Colin D; Murray, Christopher J L; Rudan, Igor; Salomon, Joshua A; Simpson, Paul J; Vos, Theo; Welch, Vivian

    2017-01-01

    Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures. GATHER comprises a checklist of 18 items that are essential for best reporting practice. A more detailed explanation and elaboration document, describing the interpretation and rationale of each reporting item along with examples of good reporting, is available on the GATHER website (http://gather-statement.org).

  7. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  8. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach.

  9. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and Comprehensive Health Risk Management—Global Radiocontamination and Information Disaster

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the “Fukushima Health Management Survey Project” for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management. PMID:25425958

  10. Women at risk: Gender inequality and maternal health.

    PubMed

    Banda, Pamela C; Odimegwu, Clifford O; Ntoimo, Lorretta F C; Muchiri, Evans

    2017-04-01

    Gender inequality has been documented as a key driver of negative health outcomes, especially among women. However, studies have not clearly examined the role of gender inequality in maternal health in an African setting. Therefore, the authors of this study examined the role of gender inequality, indicated by lack of female autonomy, in exposing women to maternal health risk. Data were obtained from the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey on a weighted sample of 3,906 married or partnered women aged 15-49 years. Multivariable analyses revealed that low autonomy in household decision power was associated with maternal health risk (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.52, p < .001). Autonomy interacted with household wealth showed that respondents who were in the wealthier households and had low autonomy in household decision power (OR = 2.03, p < .05) were more likely to be exposed to maternal health risk than their counterparts who had more autonomy. Efforts to lower women's exposure to maternal mortality and morbidity in Zambia should involve interventions to alter prevailing gender norms that limit women's active participation in decisions about their own health during pregnancy and delivery.

  11. Environmental and health risks of hydroquinone

    SciTech Connect

    Devillers, J.; Boule, P.; Vasseur, P.; Prevot, P.; Steiman, R.; Seigle-Murandi, F.; Benoit-Guyod, J.L.; Nendza, M.; Grioni, C.; Dive, D. )

    1990-06-01

    Hazard assessment of hydroquinone has been evaluated from bibliographical and original data on the physicochemical properties, the environmental behavior, and the biological effects of this aromatic compound. Hydroquinone, which is produced in large amounts and widely used, must be considered as an environmental contaminant. However, it is not persistent. The ecotoxicity of this molecule, which must be linked to its physicochemical properties, varies from species to species. Its acute and chronic toxicity toward higher terrestrial organisms is moderate. Hydroquinone is estimated to be nonmutagenic by the Ames test but induces chromosome aberrations or karyotypic effects in eucaryotic cells. Carcinogenic and teratogenic potentials have been at present inadequately studied. The study underlines the complementarity of QSAR models and experimental approaches when an attempt is made to obtain ecotoxicological profiles of pollutants.182 references.

  12. Environmental and health risks of hydroquinone.

    PubMed

    Devillers, J; Boule, P; Vasseur, P; Prevot, P; Steiman, R; Seigle-Murandi, F; Benoit-Guyod, J L; Nendza, M; Grioni, C; Dive, D

    1990-06-01

    Hazard assessment of hydroquinone has been evaluated from bibliographical and original data on the physicochemical properties, the environmental behavior, and the biological effects of this aromatic compound. Hydroquinone, which is produced in large amounts and widely used, must be considered as an environmental contaminant. However, it is not persistent. The ecotoxicity of this molecule, which must be linked to its physicochemical properties, varies from species to species. Its acute and chronic toxicity toward higher terrestrial organisms is moderate. Hydroquinone is estimated to be nonmutagenic by the Ames test but induces chromosome aberrations or karyotypic effects in eucaryotic cells. Carcinogenic and teratogenic potentials have been at present inadequately studied. The study underlines the complementarity of QSAR models and experimental approaches when an attempt is made to obtain ecotoxicological profiles of pollutants.

  13. Speciation and Health Risks of Atmospheric Nanoparticulates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Kennedy

    Exposure to air pollution causes several adverse health effects such as asthma, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and premature death; and the San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted regions in the US. The mountains that surround the valley allow air pollution, including particulate matter, to remain stagnant, prolonging the exposure of valley populations to it. The primary sources of particulate matter for this region are aluminosilicate dust from agricultural activities, and soot emissions from diesel trucks and vehicular traffic. A substantial fraction of emitted material is nanoparticulate matter (<100 nm), which contains trace iron and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons that can traverse into human organs via the lungs, initiate inflammation, and lead to disease. The traditional approach of reducing the total mass of emitted material is beginning to reach its limit of effectiveness for mitigating the negative health impacts of particulate matter. There is a need for chemical speciation of particulate matter that will allow the identification of the chemical and physical properties of particulates by source, the creation of well-controlled proxy particles with those properties for testing in cell culture studies, and correlation of particulate properties and sources with their negative health impacts. These results can help identify the sources of air pollution to prioritize for mitigation for the greatest health benefit. In addition, further chemical speciation can help monitor the results of such mitigation efforts. Here, natural particulate matter samples from Merced and Fresno, two cities in the San Joaquin Valley, were analyzed. Ultrafine particles present were 40 to 50 nm in diameter and mostly composed of aluminum, silicon, oxygen, and iron hydroxide. XAS data confirmed the presence of the aluminosilicate as smectite clay and the iron hydroxide as ferrihydrite. Furthermore, a chemical speciation study investigated

  14. Rural community leaders' perceptions of environmental health risks: improving community health.

    PubMed

    Larsson, Laura S; Butterfield, Patricia; Christopher, Suzanne; Hill, Wade

    2006-03-01

    Qualitative description was used to explore how rural community leaders frame, interpret, and give meaning to environmental health issues affecting their constituents and communities. Six rural community leaders discussed growth, vulnerable families, and the action avoidance strategies they use or see used in lieu of adopting health-promoting behaviors. Findings suggest intervention strategies should be economical, use common sense, be sensitive to regional identity, and use local case studies and "inside leadership." Occupational health nurses addressing the disparate environmental health risks in rural communities are encouraged to use agenda-neutral, scientifically based risk communication efforts and foster collaborative relationships among nurses, planners, industry, and other community leaders.

  15. A Review of Health Risks and Pathways for Exposure to Wastewater Use in Agriculture

    PubMed Central

    Dickin, Sarah K.; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J.; Qadir, Manzoor; Pizzacalla, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    Background: Wastewater is increasingly being used in the agricultural sector to cope with the depletion of freshwater resources as well as water stress linked to changing climate conditions. As wastewater irrigation expands, research focusing on the human health risks is critical because exposure to a range of contaminants must be weighed with the benefits to food security, nutrition and livelihoods. Objectives: The goal of this paper was to review research examining health risks and exposure pathways associated with wastewater irrigation to identify research trends and gaps. Methods: We conducted a review of the literature and identified a total of 126 studies published from 1995 to 2013. Findings were summarized based on several themes including types of exposure pathways, wastewater contaminants, methodological approaches and the geographical distribution of research. Results: Only 23 studies used epidemiological methods, while most research applied alternative methods to estimate risk, such as quantitative risk assessment models or comparisons of crop contamination to established guidelines for wastewater reuse. A geographic breakdown demonstrated a focus on microbiological contaminants in specific regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, despite growing chemical risks associated with rapid urbanization and industrialization that may change the types and distribution of wastewater contaminants. Conclusions: To provide a more comprehensive understanding of the health risks of wastewater use in agriculture, future research should consider multiple exposure routes, long-term health implications, and increase the range of contaminants studied, particularly in regions heavily dependent on wastewater irrigation. Citation: Dickin SK, Schuster-Wallace CJ, Qadir M, Pizzacalla K. 2016. A review of health risks and pathways for exposure to wastewater use in agriculture. Environ Health Perspect 124:900–909; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509995 PMID

  16. What's the Risk? A Simple Approach for Estimating Adjusted Risk Measures from Nonlinear Models Including Logistic Regression

    PubMed Central

    Kleinman, Lawrence C; Norton, Edward C

    2009-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a general method (called regression risk analysis) to estimate adjusted risk measures from logistic and other nonlinear multiple regression models. We show how to estimate standard errors for these estimates. These measures could supplant various approximations (e.g., adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) that may diverge, especially when outcomes are common. Study Design Regression risk analysis estimates were compared with internal standards as well as with Mantel–Haenszel estimates, Poisson and log-binomial regressions, and a widely used (but flawed) equation to calculate adjusted risk ratios (ARR) from AOR. Data Collection Data sets produced using Monte Carlo simulations. Principal Findings Regression risk analysis accurately estimates ARR and differences directly from multiple regression models, even when confounders are continuous, distributions are skewed, outcomes are common, and effect size is large. It is statistically sound and intuitive, and has properties favoring it over other methods in many cases. Conclusions Regression risk analysis should be the new standard for presenting findings from multiple regression analysis of dichotomous outcomes for cross-sectional, cohort, and population-based case–control studies, particularly when outcomes are common or effect size is large. PMID:18793213

  17. Concurrent multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents in Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Multiple health risk behaviors (HRBs) among adolescents pose a threat to their health, including HIV/AIDS. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol use, smoking, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors among youth have been shown to co-occur with each others. The objectives of this study was to estimate the prevalence of single and concurrent health risk behaviors and to explore how health risk behavior is associated with socio-demographic factors and peers' behaviors. Methods A cross sectional design was used to examine health risk behaviors of adolescents between the age 14 and 19 years living in the Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR. The study was conducted between June and August, 2008. An ordinal logistic regression model that simultaneously explored demographic factors and the influence of the behavior of peers on three categories of multiple HRBs (no risk, one risk, and two or more health risk behaviors) was performed. Results A total of 1360 respondents, 669 (49.1%) boys with mean age 16.7 ± 1.6 and 699 (50.9%) girls aged 16.1 ± 1.5 were recruited into the study. The majority reported two or fewer risk behaviors. However, multiple risk behaviors increased with age for both sexes. About 46.8% (n = 637) reported no risk, 39.3 percent (n = 535) reported one risk, 8.1 percent (n = 110) reported two risks, and 5.8 percent reported more than two health risk behaviors. The protective factors among boys were school attendance (OR = .53, CI = .33-.86), being Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = .48, CI-.26-.90), while being above the age of 15 (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.33-3.60), Akha ethnicity (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.04-4.61), peer's smoking (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6), and peer's drinking alcohol (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.1-3.21) were significantly associated with the presence of multiple risk behaviors among boys. Having some education (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.06-0.45), and being of Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.80) were factors that protected girls

  18. Perceived Risk of Mental Health Problems in Primary Care

    PubMed Central

    Paúl, Constança; Teixeira, Laetitia; Azevedo, Maria João; Alves, Sara; Duarte, Mafalda; O’Caoimh, Rónán; Molloy, William

    2015-01-01

    In the face of limited resources and an aging population with increasingly care needs, healthcare systems must identify community-dwelling older adults with mental health problems at higher risk of adverse outcomes such as institutionalization, hospitalization and death, in order to deliver timely and efficient care. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of mental health concerns and the associated perceived risk of adverse outcomes in a large sample of older patients in primary care (PC). We trained general practitioners and nurses to use the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community to rank perceived risk of mental health concerns (including neurocognitive and mood disorders) from 1 (mild) to 3 (severe). The mean age of the 4499 people assessed was 76.3 years (SD = 7.3) and 2645 (58.8%) were female. According to the PC team 1616 (35.9%) were perceived to have mental health concerns of whom 847 (52.4%) were mild, 559 (34.6%) were moderate and 210 (13%) were severe. Patients with mental health concerns had higher odds of perceived risk of adverse outcomes (OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.83–2.69 for institutionalization; OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.41–1.94 for hospitalization; OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.42–2.01 for death). These results suggest a high prevalence of mental health concerns among older adults and supports the need for early identification of patients at high-risk of adverse healthcare outcomes. PMID:26635600

  19. Perceived Risk of Mental Health Problems in Primary Care.

    PubMed

    Paúl, Constança; Teixeira, Laetitia; Azevedo, Maria João; Alves, Sara; Duarte, Mafalda; O'Caoimh, Rónán; Molloy, William

    2015-01-01

    In the face of limited resources and an aging population with increasingly care needs, healthcare systems must identify community-dwelling older adults with mental health problems at higher risk of adverse outcomes such as institutionalization, hospitalization and death, in order to deliver timely and efficient care. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of mental health concerns and the associated perceived risk of adverse outcomes in a large sample of older patients in primary care (PC). We trained general practitioners and nurses to use the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community to rank perceived risk of mental health concerns (including neurocognitive and mood disorders) from 1 (mild) to 3 (severe). The mean age of the 4499 people assessed was 76.3 years (SD = 7.3) and 2645 (58.8%) were female. According to the PC team 1616 (35.9%) were perceived to have mental health concerns of whom 847 (52.4%) were mild, 559 (34.6%) were moderate and 210 (13%) were severe. Patients with mental health concerns had higher odds of perceived risk of adverse outcomes (OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.83-2.69 for institutionalization; OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.41-1.94 for hospitalization; OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.42-2.01 for death). These results suggest a high prevalence of mental health concerns among older adults and supports the need for early identification of patients at high-risk of adverse healthcare outcomes.

  20. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012

    PubMed Central

    Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

    2016-01-01

    Objectives In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. Methods We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Results Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. Conclusion The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed. PMID:26957669

  1. In Sickness and in Health? Physical Illness as a Risk Factor for Marital Dissolution in Later Life.

    PubMed

    Karraker, Amelia; Latham, Kenzie

    2015-09-01

    The health consequences of marital dissolution are well known, but little work has examined the impact of health on the risk of marital dissolution. We use a sample of 2,701 marriages from the Health and Retirement Study to examine the role of serious physical illness onset in subsequent marital dissolution via either divorce or widowhood. We use a series of discrete time event history models with competing risks to estimate the impact of husband's and wife's physical illness onset on risk of divorce and widowhood. We find that only measures of wife's illness onset are associated with elevated risk of divorce, while measures of either spouse's illness onset is associated with elevated risk of widowhood. Further, in the case of heart problems, we find that this gender difference is statistically significant. These findings suggest health as a determinant of marital dissolution in later life via both biological and gendered social pathways.

  2. Developing a model to estimate the potential impact of municipal investment on city health.

    PubMed

    Whitfield, Malcolm; Machaczek, Katarzyna; Green, Geoff

    2013-10-01

    This article summarizes a process which exemplifies the potential impact of municipal investment on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in city populations. We report on Developing an evidence-based approach to city public health planning and investment in Europe (DECiPHEr), a project part funded by the European Union. It had twin objectives: first, to develop and validate a vocational educational training package for policy makers and political decision takers; second, to use this opportunity to iterate a robust and user-friendly investment tool for maximizing the public health impact of 'mainstream' municipal policies, programs and investments. There were seven stages in the development process shared by an academic team from Sheffield Hallam University and partners from four cities drawn from the WHO European Healthy Cities Network. There were five iterations of the model resulting from this process. The initial focus was CVD as the biggest cause of death and disability in Europe. Our original prototype 'cost offset' model was confined to proximal determinants of CVD, utilizing modified 'Framingham' equations to estimate the impact of population level cardiovascular risk factor reduction on future demand for acute hospital admissions. The DECiPHEr iterations first extended the scope of the model to distal determinants and then focused progressively on practical interventions. Six key domains of local influence on population health were introduced into the model by the development process: education, housing, environment, public health, economy and security. Deploying a realist synthesis methodology, the model then connected distal with proximal determinants of CVD. Existing scientific evidence and cities' experiential knowledge were 'plugged-in' or 'triangulated' to elaborate the causal pathways from domain interventions to public health impacts. A key product is an enhanced version of the cost offset model, named Sheffield Health Effectiveness Framework

  3. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Freya M.; Huang, Zhi; Weiss, Daniel J.; Wiebe, Antoinette; Gibson, Harry S.; Battle, Katherine E.; Pigott, David M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Putaporntip, Chaturong; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Lau, Yee Ling; Manske, Magnus; Amato, Roberto; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Vythilingam, Indra; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Singh, Balbir; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines). Conclusions/Significance We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified. PMID:27494405

  4. The application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health management.

    PubMed

    Peeler, E J; Murray, A G; Thebault, A; Brun, E; Giovaninni, A; Thrush, M A

    2007-09-14

    Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence

  5. Land use, transport, and population health: estimating the health benefits of compact cities.

    PubMed

    Stevenson, Mark; Thompson, Jason; de Sá, Thiago Hérick; Ewing, Reid; Mohan, Dinesh; McClure, Rod; Roberts, Ian; Tiwari, Geetam; Giles-Corti, Billie; Sun, Xiaoduan; Wallace, Mark; Woodcock, James

    2016-12-10

    Using a health impact assessment framework, we estimated the population health effects arising from alternative land-use and transport policy initiatives in six cities. Land-use changes were modelled to reflect a compact city in which land-use density and diversity were increased and distances to public transport were reduced to produce low motorised mobility, namely a modal shift from private motor vehicles to walking, cycling, and public transport. The modelled compact city scenario resulted in health gains for all cities (for diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease) with overall health gains of 420-826 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. However, for moderate to highly motorised cities, such as Melbourne, London, and Boston, the compact city scenario predicted a small increase in road trauma for cyclists and pedestrians (health loss of between 34 and 41 DALYs per 100 000 population). The findings suggest that government policies need to actively pursue land-use elements-particularly a focus towards compact cities-that support a modal shift away from private motor vehicles towards walking, cycling, and low-emission public transport. At the same time, these policies need to ensure the provision of safe walking and cycling infrastructure. The findings highlight the opportunities for policy makers to positively influence the overall health of city populations.

  6. Health of North American forests: Stress and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, W.H. )

    1990-01-01

    The 1980s will be remembered by forest professionals as a decade of intense and widespread societal concern for the vitality and integrity of forest systems. Daily reports of tropical deforestation and temperate forest decline have heightened social consciousness of forest health. It is therefore appropriate, as we enter the 1990s, to assess the health of our forests and propose new initiatives in this critically important area. Making generalizations about the health of North American forests is difficult because of the extraordinary diversity of forests, management regimes, and stress factors. This overview article summarizes forest health fundamentals, significant health risks, and priorities in future forest health management for temperate forests of the United States.

  7. Effective health risk communication about pandemic influenza for vulnerable populations.

    PubMed

    Vaughan, Elaine; Tinker, Timothy

    2009-10-01

    The consequences of pandemic influenza for vulnerable populations will depend partly on the effectiveness of health risk communications. Strategic planning should fully consider how life circumstances, cultural values, and perspectives on risk influence behavior during a pandemic. We summarize recent scientific evidence on communication challenges and examine how sociocultural, economic, psychological, and health factors can jeopardize or facilitate public health interventions that require a cooperative public. If ignored, current communication gaps for vulnerable populations could result in unequal protection across society during an influenza pandemic. We offer insights on communication preparedness gleaned from scientific studies and the deliberations of public health experts at a meeting convened by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, May 1 and 2, 2008.

  8. Which college students are at higher health risk?

    PubMed

    Magnus, Marcia H

    2010-03-01

    An electronic health risk appraisal was used to determine which demographic factors were associated with higher health risk among college students at an urban state university. Students' real age was assessed as the primary indicator of health risk and it was associated to demographic characteristics. Real age represents the physiological age of the body based on lifestyle choices, and this is often different to chronological age. Approximately 26.0% of 576 students were more than 5 years older than their chronological age, 29.8% were 0 to 5 years older, 29.8% were 0 to 5 years younger, and 14.1% were more than 5 years younger than their chronological age. Students who were male, Black, and nonnutrition majors had significantly higher positive real age differentials: their bodies were more likely to be more than 5 years older than their chronological age. Students with significantly lower negative real age differential--those whose real age was lower than their chronological age--were female and nutrition majors. Students were significantly more likely to report that they were "very motivated" if they were female (88.6%), compared with male (66.7%). These data suggest that when health disparities are assessed at the level of real age differential and motivation to make lifestyle changes, male Black college students are at highest health risk and they are less likely to be "very motivated" to make lifestyle changes than their peers.

  9. Overweight, Obesity, Youth, and Health-Risk Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Farhat, Tilda; Iannotti, Ronald J.; Simons-Morton, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    Background The prevalence and severity of obesity have increased among children and adolescents. While the medical and psychosocial consequences of youth obesity have been well-documented, less information exists on the association of overweight/obesity with health risk behaviors, which are considered to be a primary threat to adolescent health. Objectives This study examined the association of overweight and obesity with health-risk behaviors among U.S. youth. Methods Self-reported height and weight, substance use, violence and bullying were assessed in a nationally representative sample of students aged 11 to 17 years (N=7825) who participated in the 2005/6 Health Behaviors in School-Aged Children survey. Data were analyzed in 2009. Results Significant gender and age differences in the relationship of overweight/obesity with risk behaviors were observed. Overweight and obesity were significantly associated with substance use among girls only: frequent smoking and drinking were associated with overweight and obesity among younger girls, whereas they were associated with obesity among older girls. Frequent smoking and cannabis use were associated with overweight among younger girls only. Relationships between violent behavior and overweight/obesity were mainly observed among boys: Younger obese boys were more likely to be victims of bullying, whereas older obese boys were more likely to carry weapons, compared to boys of normal weight. Conclusions Overweight and obese youth are at risk of developing health compromising behaviors which may compound medical and social problems associated with excess weight. PMID:20171527

  10. The American Community Survey and Health Insurance Coverage Estimates: Possibilities and Challenges for Health Policy Researchers

    PubMed Central

    Davern, Michael; Quinn, Brian C; Kenney, Genevieve M; Blewett, Lynn A

    2009-01-01

    Objective To introduce the American Community Survey (ACS) and its measure of health insurance coverage to researchers and policy makers. Data Sources/Study Setting We compare the survey designs for the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS) that measure insurance coverage. Study Design We describe the ACS and how it will be useful to health policy researchers. Principal Findings Relative to the CPS, the ACS will provide more precise state and substate estimates of health insurance coverage at a point-in-time. Yet the ACS lacks the historical data and detailed state-specific coverage categories seen in the CPS. Conclusions The ACS will be a critical new resource for researchers. To use the new data to the best advantage, careful research will be needed to understand its strengths and weaknesses. PMID:19040425

  11. Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

    2017-08-01

    Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefi