Methodology to Estimate the Longitudinal Average Attributable Fraction of Guideline-recommended Medications for Death in Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Zhan, Yilei; Cohen, Andrew B.; Tinetti, Mary E.; Trentalange, Mark; McAvay, Gail

2016-01-01

Background: Persons with multiple chronic conditions receive multiple guideline-recommended medications to improve outcomes such as mortality. Our objective was to estimate the longitudinal average attributable fraction for 3-year survival of medications for cardiovascular conditions in persons with multiple chronic conditions and to determine whether heterogeneity occurred by age. Methods: Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey participants (N = 8,578) with two or more chronic conditions, enrolled from 2005 to 2009 with follow-up through 2011, were analyzed. We calculated the longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction for oral medications (beta blockers, renin–angiotensin system blockers, and thiazide diuretics) indicated for cardiovascular conditions (atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and hypertension), on survival adjusted for 18 participant characteristics. Models stratified by age (≤80 and >80 years) were analyzed to determine heterogeneity of both cardiovascular conditions and medications. Results: Heart failure had the greatest average attributable fraction (39%) for mortality. The fractional contributions of beta blockers, renin–angiotensin system blockers, and thiazides to improve survival were 10.4%, 9.3%, and 7.2% respectively. In age-stratified models, of these medications thiazides had a significant contribution to survival only for those aged 80 years or younger. The effects of the remaining medications were similar in both age strata. Conclusions: Most cardiovascular medications were attributed independently to survival. The two cardiovascular conditions contributing independently to death were heart failure and atrial fibrillation. The medication effects were similar by age except for thiazides that had a significant contribution to survival in persons younger than 80 years. PMID:26748093

Estimation of years lived with disability due to noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a population-representative survey

PubMed Central

Park, Ji In

2017-01-01

The Global Burden of Disease 2010 and the WHO Global Health Estimates of years lived with disability (YLDs) uses disability-weights obtained from lay health-state descriptions, which cannot fully reflect different disease manifestations, according to severity, treatment, and environment. The aim of this study was to provide population-representative YLDs of noncommunicable diseases and injuries using a prevalence-based approach, with the disability weight measured in subjects with specific diseases or injuries. We included a total of 44969 adults, who completed the EQ-5D questionnaire as participation in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2014. We estimated the prevalence of each of 40 conditions identified from the noncommunicable diseases and injuries in the WHO list. Modified condition-specific disability-weight was determined from the adjusted mean difference of the EQ-5D index between the condition and reference groups. Condition-specific YLDs were calculated as the condition’s prevalence multiplied by the condition’s disability-weight. All-cause YLDs, estimated as “number of population × (1 − mean score of EQ-5D)” were 2165 thousands in 39044 thousand adults aged ≥20. The combined YLDs for all 40 conditions accounted for 67.6% of all-cause YLDs, and were 1604, 2126, 8749, and 12847 per 100000 young (age 20−59) males, young females, old (age ≥60) males, and old females, respectively. Back pain/osteoarthritis YLDs were exceptionally large (442/40, 864/146, 2037/836, and 4644/3039 per 100000 young males, young females, old males, and old females, respectively). Back pain, osteoarthritis, depression, diabetes, periodontitis, and stroke accounted for 22.3%, 9.1%, 4.6%, 3.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% of all-cause YLDs, respectively. In conclusion, this estimation of YLDs using prevalence rates and disability-weights measured in a population-representative survey may form the basis for population-level strategies to prevent age-related worsening of disability. PMID:28196151

Binaural Release from Masking for a Speech Sound in Infants, Preschoolers, and Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nozza, Robert J.

1988-01-01

Binaural masked thresholds for a speech sound (/ba/) were estimated under two interaural phase conditions in three age groups (infants, preschoolers, adults). Differences as a function of both age and condition and effects of reducing intensity for adults were significant in indicating possible developmental binaural hearing changes, especially…

Cardiovascular Events, Conditions, and Procedures Among People With Episodic Migraine in the US Population: Results from the American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention (AMPP) Study.

PubMed

Buse, Dawn C; Reed, Michael L; Fanning, Kristina M; Kurth, Tobias; Lipton, Richard B

2017-01-01

Though migraine, particularly migraine with aura, is a cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, the scope and distribution of cardiovascular disease in representative samples of people with migraine are not known. This is important because many widely used acute migraine treatments, including triptans, ergot alkaloids, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, carry precautions, warnings, or contraindications for use in persons with CV disease. To assess the scope and distribution of cardiovascular events, conditions, and procedures in persons with episodic migraine in a representative sample of the US population, using data from the American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention (AMPP) Study. Eligible subjects completed the 2009 AMPP survey, met ICHD-3beta criteria for migraine, and had a headache frequency of less than 15 days per month (episodic migraine). A survey on cardiovascular events (ie, myocardial infarction), conditions (ie, angina), and procedures (ie, carotid endarterectomy) was adopted from the Women's Health Study and the Physician's Health Studies. Cardiovascular events and conditions were defined by participant reports of having both experienced and received a physician diagnosis for a particular event or condition. The distribution of CV events, conditions, and procedures was summarized for the entire migraine sample and in groups defined by gender and age (22-39, 40-59, and ≥60). To assess the numbers of persons with episodic migraine in the US, we applied age and gender stratified estimates of migraine prevalence to the 2015 Census data. To estimate the number of cardiovascular events, conditions, and procedures in the US migraine population, we applied age and gender stratified event rates to the number of persons with episodic migraine in each stratum. The 2009 AMPP Study survey was returned by 11,792 study participants out of 16,983 (64.9% response rate), including 6723 individuals who met study criteria for episodic migraine (5227 women and 1496 men). Among 22-39 year olds with episodic migraine, 3.4% reported having received a physician diagnosis of CV events or conditions and 1.1% reported undergoing CV related procedures. Among 40-59 year olds, 10.2% reported having received a physician diagnosis of CV events or conditions and 3.5% reported CV related procedures. For those age 60 or older, 22.3% reported CV events or conditions and 8.8% reported CV procedures. Prevalence of events, conditions, and procedures was higher in men than women and also in older age groups. However, the absolute number of CV events, procedures, and conditions was greater for women than men due to the higher population prevalence of episodic migraine in women. We projected that 2.0 million women and 665,000 men in the US had episodic migraine and a history of one or more CV event, condition, or procedure. By age group, it is estimated that 579,000 among those aged 22-39, 1.37 million of those aged 40-59, and 696,000 of those 60 and older with episodic migraine have ever had at least one CV event, procedure, or condition. Based on these analyses, we estimate that there are roughly 2.6 million people with episodic migraine aged 22 and older in the US with one or more prior CV event, condition, or procedure. For this group, cardiovascular contraindications to many migraine-specific acute migraine therapies may make treatment challenging. © 2016 American Headache Society.

The relationship between groundwater ages, streamflow ages, and storage selection functions under stationary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berghuijs, W.; Kirchner, J. W.

2017-12-01

Waters in aquifers are often much older than the streamwaters that drain them. Simple physically based reasoning suggests that these age contrasts should be expected wherever catchments are heterogeneous. However, a general quantitative catchment-scale explanation of these age contrasts remains elusive. We show that under stationary conditions conservation of mass and age dictate that the age distribution of water stored in a catchment can be directly estimated from the age distribution of its outflows, and vice versa. This in turn implies that the catchment's preference for the release or retention of waters of different ages can be estimated directly from the age distribution of outflow under stationary conditions. Using simple models of transit times, we show that the mean age of stored water can range from half as old as the mean age of streamflow (for plug flow conditions) to almost infinitely older (for strongly preferential flow). Streamflow age distributions reported in the literature often have long upper tails, consistent with preferential flow and implying that storage ages are substantially older than streamflow ages. Mean streamflow ages reported in the literature imply that most streamflow originates from a thin veneer of total groundwater storage. This preferential release of young streamflow implies that most groundwater is exchanged only slowly with the surface, and consequently must be very old. Where information is available for both storage ages and streamflow ages, our analysis establishes consistency relationships through which each could be used to better constrain the other. By quantifying the relationship between groundwater and streamflow ages, our analysis provides tools to jointly assess both of these important catchment properties.

Impact of socioeconomic status and medical conditions on health and healthcare utilization among aging Ghanaians.

PubMed

Saeed, Bashiru Ii; Xicang, Zhao; Yawson, Alfred Edwin; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Nsowah-Nuamah, Nicholas N N

2015-03-20

This study attempts to examine the impact of socioeconomic and medical conditions in health and healthcare utilization among older adults in Ghana. Five separate models with varying input variables were estimated for each response variable. Data (Wave 1 data) were drawn from the World Health Organization Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted during 2007-2008 and included a total of 4770 respondents aged 50+ and 803 aged 18-49 in Ghana. Ordered logits was estimated for self-rated health, and binary logits for functional limitation and healthcare utilization. Our results show that the study provides enough grounds for further research on the interplay between socioeconomic and medical conditions on one hand and the health of the aged on the other. Controlling for socioeconomic status substantially contributes significantly to utilization. Also, aged women experience worse health than men, as shown by functioning assessment, self-rated health, chronic conditions and functional limitations. Women have higher rates of healthcare utilization, as shown by significantly higher rates of hospitalization and outpatient encounters. Expansion of the national health insurance scheme to cover the entire older population--for those in both formal and informal employments--is likely to garner increased access and improved health states for the older population.

The role of marriage in the causal pathway from economic conditions early in life to mortality.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Gupta, Sumedha

2015-03-01

This paper analyzes the interplay between early-life conditions and marital status, as determinants of adult mortality. We use individual data from Dutch registers (years 1815-2000), combined with business cycle conditions in childhood as indicators of early-life conditions. The empirical analysis estimates bivariate duration models of marriage and mortality, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity. Results show that conditions around birth and school going ages are important for marriage and mortality. Men typically enjoy a protective effect of marriage, whereas women suffer during childbearing ages. However, having been born under favorable economic conditions reduces female mortality during childbearing ages. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prioritising sewerage maintenance using inferred sewer age: a case study for Edinburgh.

PubMed

Arthur, S; Burkhard, R

2010-01-01

The reported research project focuses on using a database which contains details of customer contacts and CCTV data for a key Scottish catchment to construct a GIS based sewer condition model. Given the nature of the asset registry, a key research challenge was estimating the age of individual lengths of pipe. Within this context, asset age was inferred using the estimated age of surface developments-this involved overlaying the network in a GIS with historical digital maps. The paper illustrates that inferred asset age can reliably be used to highlight assets which are more likely to fail.

Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boskin, Michael J.

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…

A comparison of average wages with age-specific wages for assessing indirect productivity losses: analytic simplicity versus analytic precision.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Tashjian, Cole; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Bhatt, Aomesh; Postma, Maarten J

2017-07-01

Numerous approaches are used to estimate indirect productivity losses using various wage estimates applied to poor health in working aged adults. Considering the different wage estimation approaches observed in the published literature, we sought to assess variation in productivity loss estimates when using average wages compared with age-specific wages. Published estimates for average and age-specific wages for combined male/female wages were obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics. A polynomial interpolation was used to convert 5-year age-banded wage data into annual age-specific wages estimates. To compare indirect cost estimates, average wages and age-specific wages were used to project productivity losses at various stages of life based on the human capital approach. Discount rates of 0, 3, and 6 % were applied to projected age-specific and average wage losses. Using average wages was found to overestimate lifetime wages in conditions afflicting those aged 1-27 and 57-67, while underestimating lifetime wages in those aged 27-57. The difference was most significant for children where average wage overestimated wages by 15 % and for 40-year-olds where it underestimated wages by 14 %. Large differences in projecting productivity losses exist when using the average wage applied over a lifetime. Specifically, use of average wages overestimates productivity losses between 8 and 15 % for childhood illnesses. Furthermore, during prime working years, use of average wages will underestimate productivity losses by 14 %. We suggest that to achieve more precise estimates of productivity losses, age-specific wages should become the standard analytic approach.

Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death.

PubMed

Merrill, R M; Kessler, L G; Udler, J M; Rasband, G C; Feuer, E J

1999-02-01

Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term data extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already lived a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at which the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 years among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restricted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-term age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk estimates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicide or legal intervention, and suicide. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fatal motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 20s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for blacks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, cancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most common. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present the most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences in disease and death risks were derived and reported among age-specific race and gender subgroups of the population. Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic diseases and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among population subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educated prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocation of health resources.

A potential dating technique using 228Th/228Ra ratio for tracing the chronosequence of elemental concentrations in plants.

PubMed

Chao, J H; Niu, H; Chiu, C Y; Lin, C

2007-06-01

We propose a radiometric method based on measurement of the radioactivity of the naturally occurring radionuclides (228)Ra and 228)Th and the derived (228)Th/(228)Ra ratios in plant samples to estimate plant age and the corresponding nutritional conditions in a field-growing fern, Dicranopteris linearis. Plant age (tissue age) was associated with the (228)Th/(228)Ra ratio in fronds, which implies the accumulation time of immobile elements in the plant tissue or the life span of the fronds. Results indicated that the accumulation of alkaline earth elements in D. linearis is relatively constant with increased age, while the K concentration is reversed with age because of translocation among plant tissues. Estimation of dating uncertainty based on measurement conditions revealed that the radiometric technique can be applied to trace chronosequential changes of elemental concentrations and environmental pollutants in plants with ages of less than 10-15 years.

Up-to-date and projected estimates of survival for people with cystic fibrosis using baseline characteristics: A longitudinal study using UK patient registry data.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; Szczesniak, Rhonda; Taylor-Robinson, David; Bilton, Diana

2018-03-01

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common inherited disease in Caucasians, affecting around 10,000 individuals in the UK today. Prognosis has improved considerably over recent decades with ongoing improvements in treatment and care. Providing up-to-date survival predictions is important for patients, clinicians and health services planning. Flexible parametric survival modelling of UK CF Registry data from 2011 to 2015, capturing 602 deaths in 10,428 individuals. Survival curves were estimated from birth; conditional on reaching older ages; and projected under different assumptions concerning future mortality trends, using baseline characteristics of sex, CFTR genotype (zero, one, two copies of F508del) and age at diagnosis. Male sex was associated with better survival, as was older age at diagnosis, but only in F508del non-homozygotes. Survival did not differ by genotype among individuals diagnosed at birth. Median survival ages at birth in F508del homozygotes were 46years (males) and 41years (females), and similar in non-homozygotes diagnosed at birth. F508del heterozygotes diagnosed aged 5 had median survival ages of 57 (males) and 51 (females). Conditional on survival to 30, median survival age rises to 52 (males) and 49 (females) in homozygotes. Mortality rates decreased annually by 2% during 2006-2015. Future improvements at this rate suggest median survival ages for F508del homozygous babies of 65 (males) and 56 (females). Over half of babies born today, and of individuals aged 30 and above today, can expect to survive into at least their fifth decade. Evidence before this study We searched PubMed with terms "(cystic fibrosis survival) and (projection OR model OR registry OR United Kingdom OR UK)" to identify relevant studies on survival estimates for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). We also considered the most recent annual report from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (Cystic Fibrosis Trust, 2016), a review by Buzzetti and colleagues (2009), the chapter on Epidemiology of Cystic Fibrosis by MacNeill (2016), the study of MacKenzie and colleagues (2014), and references therein. There have been many studies of factors associated with survival in CF; most have focused on identifying risk factors, and only a few have presented estimated survival curves, which are the focus of this work. The most recent study of survival in the UK is by Dodge and colleagues (2007), who used data obtained from CF clinics and the national death register, and gave an estimate of survival for babies born in 2003. We found no previous studies that have obtained detailed information on survival using UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry data. Jackson and colleagues obtained survival estimates for the US and Ireland using registry data (Jackson et al., 2011). MacKenzie and colleagues used US Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry data from 2000 to 2010 to project survival for children born and diagnosed with CF in 2010, accounting for sex, genotype and age at diagnosis (MacKenzie et al., 2014). Previous studies on estimated survival in CF have become out of date or have not accounted for the full range of patient characteristics available at birth. Few have presented conditional survival estimates (Dodge et al., 2007). Added value of this study This is the first study to yield detailed survival statistics using the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry, which is one of the largest national CF registries outside of the US and has almost complete coverage of the UK CF population. The primary goal was to leverage the long-term follow-up of the nearly complete UK CF population available in the Registry for the purposes of producing accurate, precise predictions in the modern era of CF care. Estimates are presented from birth and conditional on survival to older ages. These are the first conditional estimates in CF to also account for genotype, sex and age at diagnosis, which were each included in the modelling using a flexible approach. Projections are also provided under different scenarios based on downward trends in mortality rates. Our use of flexible parametric survival models is novel in this field, and our approach could be used to provide modern survival statistics for other chronic diseases and disorders. Implications of all the available evidence Our estimates of future survival in CF under a range of different scenarios are based on data on nearly all individuals living with the disease in the UK in recent times, reflective of a modern era of care, and are most appropriate for the families of babies being born in the present day with CF. Conditional estimates inform patients who have already reached an older age, and their clinicians. Over half of babies born today, and of individuals aged 30years and above alive today, can expect to survive into their fifth decade. Insights based on our survival projections can be used to inform future needs in CF health care provision. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Menstrual versus clinical estimate of gestational age dating in the United States: temporal trends and variability in indices of perinatal outcomes.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V

2007-09-01

Accurate estimation of gestational age early in pregnancy is paramount for obstetric care decisions and for determining fetal growth and other conditions that may necessitate timing the iatrogenic intervention or delivery. We sought to examine temporal changes in the distributions of two measures of gestational age, namely, those based on menstrual dating and a clinical estimate. We further sought to evaluate relative comparisons and variability in indices of perinatal outcomes. We utilised the Natality data files in the US, 1990-2002 comprising women that delivered a singleton livebirth between 22 and 44 weeks gestation (n = 42 689 603). Changes were shown in the distributions of gestational age based on menstrual vs. clinical estimate between 1990 and 2002, as well as changes in the proportions of preterm (<37, <32 and <28 weeks) and post-term (>or=42 weeks) birth, and small- (SGA; <10th percentile) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA; birthweight >90th percentile) births. While the absolute rates of preterm birth <37 weeks, SGA and LGA births were lower based on the clinical estimate of gestational age relative to that based on menstrual dating, the increases in preterm birth rate between 1990 and 2002 were fairly similar between the two measures of gestational dating. However, the decline in post-term births was larger, based on the clinical estimate (-73.8%), than on the menstrual estimate (-36.6%) between 1990 and 2002. While the clinical estimate of gestational age appears to provide a reasonably good approximation to the menstrual estimate, disregarding the clinical estimate of gestational age may ignore the advantages of gestational age assessment in modern obstetrics.

U.S. Freight: Economy in Motion 1998

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

MOBILE is a computer model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for estimating emissions of air pollutants by motor vehicles. Using information on the types and ages of vehicles and on local driving conditions, MOBILE estimates...

Large-scale changes in bloater growth and condition in Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prichard, Carson G.; Roseman, Edward F.; Keeler, Kevin M.; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Riley, Stephen C.

2016-01-01

Native Bloaters Coregonus hoyi have exhibited multiple strong year-classes since 2005 and now are the most abundant benthopelagic offshore prey fish in Lake Huron, following the crash of nonnative AlewivesAlosa pseudoharengus and substantial declines in nonnative Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax. Despite recent recoveries in Bloater abundance, marketable-size (>229 mm) Bloaters remain scarce. We used annual survey data to assess temporal and spatial dynamics of Bloater body condition and lengths at age in the main basin of Lake Huron from 1973 to 2014. Basinwide lengths at age were modeled by cohort for the 1973–2003 year-classes using a von Bertalanffy growth model with time-varying Brody growth coefficient (k) and asymptotic length () parameters. Median Bloater weights at selected lengths were estimated to assess changes in condition by modeling weight–length relations with an allometric growth model that allowed growth parameters to vary spatially and temporally. Estimated Bloater lengths at age declined 14–24% among ages 4–8 for all year-classes between 1973 and 2004. Estimates of  declined from a peak of 394 mm (1973 year-class) to a minimum of 238 mm (1998 year-class). Observed mean lengths at age in 2014 were at all-time lows, suggesting that year-classes comprising the current Bloater population would have to follow growth trajectories unlike those characterizing the 1973–2003 year-classes to attain marketable size. Furthermore, estimated weights of 250-mm Bloaters (i.e., a large, commercially valuable size-class) declined 17% among all regions from 1976 to 2007. Decreases in body condition of large Bloaters are associated with lower lipid content and may be linked to marked declines in abundance of the amphipodsDiporeia spp. in Lake Huron. We hypothesize that since at least 1976, large Bloaters have become more negatively buoyant and may have incurred an increasingly greater metabolic cost performing diel vertical migrations to prey upon the opossum shrimp Mysis diluviana and zooplankton.

Medical Care Expenditures and Earnings Losses Among Persons With Arthritis and Other Rheumatic Conditions in 2003, and Comparisons With 1997

PubMed Central

Yelin, Edward; Murphy, Louise; Cisternas, Miriam G.; Foreman, Aimee J.; Pasta, David J.; Helmick, Charles G.

2010-01-01

Objective To obtain estimates of medical care expenditures and earnings losses associated with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions and the increment in such costs attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions in the US in 2003, and to compare these estimates with those from 1997. Methods Estimates for 2003 were derived from the Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS), a national probability sample of households. We tabulated medical care expenditures of adult MEPS respondents, stratified by arthritis and comorbidity status, and used regression techniques to estimate the increment of medical care expenditures attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions. We also estimated the earnings losses sustained by working-age adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions. Estimates for 2003 were compared with those from 1997, inflated to 2003 terms. Results In 2003, there were 46.1 million adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions (versus 36.8 million in 1997). Adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions incurred mean medical care expenditures of $6,978 in 2003 (versus $6,346 in 1997), of which $1,635 was for prescriptions ($899 in 1997). Expenditures for adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions totaled $321.8 billion in 2003 ($233.5 billion in 1997). In 2003, the mean increment in medical care expenditures attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions was $1,752 ($1,762 in 1997), for a total of $80.8 billion ($64.8 billion in 1997). Persons with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions ages 18–64 years earned $3,613 less than other persons (versus $4,551 in 1997), for a total of $108.0 billion (versus $99.0 billion). Of this amount, $1,590 was attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions (versus $1,946 in 1997), for a total of $47.0 billion ($43.3 billion in 1997). Conclusion Our findings indicate that the increase in medical care expenditures and earnings losses between 1997 and 2003 is due more to an increase in the number of persons with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions than to costs per case. PMID:17469096

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

Age trends in rates of substance use disorders across ages 18-90: Differences by gender and race/ethnicity.

PubMed

Vasilenko, Sara A; Evans-Polce, Rebecca J; Lanza, Stephanie T

2017-11-01

Although research has documented age differences in substance use, less is known about how prevalence of substance use disorders (SUDs) vary across age and differ by gender and race/ethnicity. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs) were estimated on data from the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (NESARC III; N=36,309), a nationally representative survey of the adult population. The sample was 44% male; 53% White, 21% Black, 19% Hispanic/Latino, 6% other race/ethnicity. Prevalence of four SUDs (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and opioid use disorders) were flexibly estimated across ages 18-90 by gender and race/ethnicity. Estimated SUD prevalences were generally higher for men compared to women at most ages until the 70s. However, disparities by race/ethnicity varied with age, such that for most SUDs, estimated prevalences were higher for White participants at younger ages and Black participants at older ages. Results suggest relatively constant disparities by gender across age, and a crossover effect for Black and White participants. Findings demonstrate that Black individuals in midlife may be an important target of intervention programs for some substances. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Co-morbidities associated with influenza-attributed mortality, 1994-2000, Canada.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Langley, Joanne M; Tam, Theresa W S

2008-08-26

The elderly and persons with specific chronic conditions are known to face elevated morbidity and mortality risks resulting from an influenza infection, and hence are routinely recommended for annual influenza vaccination. However, risk-specific mortality rates have not been established. We estimated age-specific influenza-attributable mortality rates stratified by the presence of chronic conditions and type of residence based on deaths of persons who were admitted to hospital with a respiratory complication captured in our national database. The majority of patients had chronic heart or respiratory conditions (80%) and were admitted from the community (80%). Influenza-attributable mortality rates clearly increase with age for all risk groups. Our influenza-specific estimates identified higher risk ratios for chronic lung or heart disease than have been suggested by other methods. These estimates identify groups most in need of improved vaccines and for whom the use of additional strategies, such as immunization of household contacts or caregivers should be considered.

Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

PubMed

Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

2015-04-01

Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

75 FR 16229 - Urbanized Area Formula Program: Notice of Final Circular

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-31

... revision. A. Chapter I--Introduction and Background Chapter I of the revised circular is the introductory... comprehensive fleet age and condition statistics are necessary for FTA to estimate fleet condition on a national...

Orthostatic hypotension-related hospitalizations in the United States.

PubMed

Shibao, Cyndya; Grijalva, Carlos G; Raj, Satish R; Biaggioni, Italo; Griffin, Marie R

2007-11-01

Orthostatic hypotension has been commonly described in elderly persons and is associated with an increased risk of falls, syncope, and cerebrovascular events. Nevertheless, the precise burden of this condition in the US is currently unknown. We analyzed discharge data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to identify orthostatic hypotension-related hospitalizations and associated comorbidities after excluding acute causes of this condition. National hospitalization rates were estimated using US census population estimates, and the medical conditions most frequently associated with orthostatic hypotension were assessed. In 2004, there were an estimated 80,095 orthostatic hypotension-related hospitalizations, yielding an overall rate of 36 (95% confidence interval, 34 to 38) hospitalizations per 100,000 US adults. Orthostatic hypotension was the primary diagnosis in 35% of these hospitalizations. The number of orthostatic hypotension-related hospitalizations increased steadily with age, and patients aged 75 years or older had the highest annual hospitalization rate, 233 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 217 to 249). The median length of hospital stay was 3 days (IQR 2-6) and the overall in-hospital mortality was 0.9%. Caucasian males were most likely to be hospitalized with orthostatic hypotension. Syncope was the most common comorbid condition reported among orthostatic hypotension patients. Orthostatic hypotension is a relatively common condition among hospitalized US elderly patients. In light of the progressive aging of the US population, the contribution of orthostatic hypotension to morbidity and mortality is likely to increase, and deserves further scrutiny.

Trends in selected chronic conditions and behavioral risk factors among women of reproductive age, behavioral risk factor surveillance system, 2001-2009.

PubMed

Hayes, Donald K; Fan, Amy Z; Smith, Ruben A; Bombard, Jennifer M

2011-11-01

Some potentially modifiable risk factors and chronic conditions cause significant disease and death during pregnancy and promote the development of chronic disease. This study describes recent trends of modifiable risk factors and controllable chronic conditions among reproductive-aged women. Data from the 2001 to 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a representative state-based telephone survey of health behavior in US adults, was analyzed for 327,917 women of reproductive age, 18 to 44 years. We calculated prevalence ratios over time to assess trends for 4 selected risk factors and 4 chronic conditions, accounting for age, race/ethnicity, education, health care coverage, and individual states. From 2001 to 2009, estimates of 2 risk factors improved: smoking declined from 25.9% to 18.8%, and physical inactivity declined from 25.0% to 23.0%. One risk factor, heavy drinking, did not change. From 2003 to 2009, the estimates for 1 risk factor and 4 chronic conditions worsened: obesity increased from 18.3% to 24.7%, diabetes increased from 2.1% to 2.9%, high cholesterol increased from 10.3% to 13.6%, asthma increased from 13.5% to 16.2%, and high blood pressure increased from 9.0% to 10.1%. All trends were significant after adjustment, except that for heavy drinking. Among women of reproductive age, prevalence of smoking and physical inactivity improved, but prevalence of obesity and all 4 chronic conditions worsened. Understanding reasons for the improvements in smoking and physical activity may support the development of targeted interventions to reverse the trends and help prevent chronic disease and adverse reproductive outcomes among women in this age group.

Prevalence and causes of work disability among working-age U.S. adults, 2011-2013, NHIS.

PubMed

Theis, Kristina A; Roblin, Douglas W; Helmick, Charles G; Luo, Ruiyan

2018-01-01

Chronic conditions are among the major causes of work disability (WD), which is associated with lower employment, less economic activity, and greater dependence on social programs, while limiting access to the benefits of employment participation. We estimated the overall prevalence of WD among working-age (18-64 years) U.S. adults and the most common causes of WD overall and by sex. Next, we estimated the prevalence and most common causes of WD among adults with 12 common chronic conditions by sex and age. We hypothesized that musculoskeletal conditions would be among the most common causes of WD overall and for individuals with other diagnosed chronic conditions. Data were obtained from years 2011, 2012, and 2013 of the National Health Interview Survey. WD was defined by a "yes" response to one or both of: "Does a physical, mental, or emotional problem NOW keep you from working at a job or business?" and "Are you limited in the kind OR amount of work you can do because of a physical, mental or emotional problem?" Overall, 20.1 million adults (10.4% (95% CI = 10.1-10.8) of the working-age population) reported WD. The top three most commonly reported causes of WD were back/neck problems 30.3% (95% CI = 29.1-31.5), depression/anxiety/emotional problems 21.0% (19.9-22.0), and arthritis/rheumatism 18.6 (17.6-19.6). Musculoskeletal conditions were among the three most common causes of WD overall and by age- and sex-specific respondents across diagnosed chronic conditions. Quantifying the prevalence and causes of work disability by age and sex can help prioritize interventions. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A comparison of skeletal maturity assessed by radiological and ultrasonic methods.

PubMed

Utczas, Katinka; Muzsnai, Agota; Cameron, Noel; Zsakai, Annamaria; Bodzsar, Eva B

2017-07-08

The estimation of skeletal maturity is a useful tool in pediatric practice to determine the degree of delay or advancement in growth disorders and the effectiveness of treatment in conditions that influence linear growth. Skeletal maturity of children is commonly assessed using either Greulich-Pyle (GP) or Tanner-Whitehouse methods (TW2 and TW3). However, a less invasive ultrasonic method, that does not use ionizing radiation, has been suggested for use in epidemiological studies of skeletal maturity. The main purpose of the present study was to determine the accuracy of an ultrasonic method based on the GP maturity indicators compared to the standard GP radiographic method. Skeletal maturity of 1502 healthy children, aged from 6 to 18 years, was estimated by quantitative ultrasound and compared to GP bone ages estimated from left hand and wrist radiographs of a subsample of 47 randomly selected participants. The ultrasonic bone age estimation demonstrated very strong correlations with all the radiological age estimations. The correlation coefficients ranged between 0.895 and 0.958, and the strongest correlation of ultrasonic skeletal maturity estimation was found with the Tanner-Whitehouse RUS method. The ultrasonic bone age estimation is suggested for use between the chronological ages of 8.5-16.0 years in boys and 7.5-15.0 years in girls. The ultrasonic bone age estimation is suggested for use in epidemiological surveys since the sensitivity for screening for not normal bone development is appropriate, at least within the 8-15 years age interval. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Childhood Chronic Illness: Prevalence, Severity, and Impact.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newacheck, Paul W.; Taylor, William R.

1992-01-01

Presents national estimates of the prevalence and impact of chronic childhood conditions using proxy responses for 17,110 children under age 18 years. Thirty-one percent of the children are affected by chronic conditions, which include respiratory allergies, repeated ear infections, and asthma. Psychosocial conditions moderate the impact of these…

Vocal Age Disguise: The Role of Fundamental Frequency and Speech Rate and Its Perceived Effects.

PubMed

Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten

2016-01-01

The relationship between vocal characteristics and perceived age is of interest in various contexts, as is the possibility to affect age perception through vocal manipulation. A few examples of such situations are when age is staged by actors, when ear witnesses make age assessments based on vocal cues only or when offenders (e.g., online groomers) disguise their voice to appear younger or older. This paper investigates how speakers spontaneously manipulate two age related vocal characteristics ( f 0 and speech rate) in attempt to sound younger versus older than their true age, and if the manipulations correspond to actual age related changes in f 0 and speech rate (Study 1). Further aims of the paper is to determine how successful vocal age disguise is by asking listeners to estimate the age of generated speech samples (Study 2) and to examine whether or not listeners use f 0 and speech rate as cues to perceived age. In Study 1, participants from three age groups (20-25, 40-45, and 60-65 years) agreed to read a short text under three voice conditions. There were 12 speakers in each age group (six women and six men). They used their natural voice in one condition, attempted to sound 20 years younger in another and 20 years older in a third condition. In Study 2, 60 participants (listeners) listened to speech samples from the three voice conditions in Study 1 and estimated the speakers' age. Each listener was exposed to all three voice conditions. The results from Study 1 indicated that the speakers increased fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and speech rate when attempting to sound younger and decreased f 0 and speech rate when attempting to sound older. Study 2 showed that the voice manipulations had an effect in the sought-after direction, although the achieved mean effect was only 3 years, which is far less than the intended effect of 20 years. Moreover, listeners used speech rate, but not f 0 , as a cue to speaker age. It was concluded that age disguise by voice can be achieved by naïve speakers even though the perceived effect was smaller than intended.

Do children perceive postural constraints when estimating reach or action planning?

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Cordova, Alberto; Lee, Sunghan

2009-03-01

Estimation of whether an object is reachable from a specific body position constitutes an important aspect in effective motor planning. Researchers who estimate reachability by way of motor imagery with adults consistently report the tendency to overestimate, with some evidence of a postural effect (postural stability hypothesis). This idea suggests that perceived reaching limits depend on an individual's perceived postural constraints. Based on previous work with adults, the authors expected a significant postural effect with the Reach 2 condition, as evidenced by reduced overestimation. Furthermore, the authors hypothesized that the postural effect would be greater in younger children. They then tested these propositions among children aged 7, 9, and 11 years by asking them to estimate reach while seated (Reach 1) and in the more demanding posture of standing on 1 foot and leaning forward (Reach 2). Results indicated no age or condition difference, therefore providing no support for a postural effect. When the authors compared these data to a published report of adults, a developmental difference emerged. That is, adults recognize the perceived postural constraint of the standing position resulting in under- rather than overestimation, as displayed in the seated condition. Although preliminary, these observations suggest that estimates of reach (action planning) continue to be refined between late childhood and young adulthood.

Cost of chronic disease in California: estimates at the county level.

PubMed

Brown, Paul M; Gonzalez, Mariaelena; Dhaul, Ritem Sandhu

2015-01-01

An estimated 39% of people in California suffer from at least one chronic condition or disease. While the increased coverage provided by the Affordable Care Act will result in greater access to primary health care, coordinated strategies are needed to prevent chronic conditions. To identify cost-effective strategies, local health departments and other agencies need accurate information on the costs of chronic conditions in their region. To present a methodology for estimating the cost of chronic conditions for counties. Estimates of the attributable cost of 6 chronic conditions-arthritis, asthma, cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and depression-from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Chronic Disease Cost Calculator were combined with prevalence rates from the various sources and census data for California counties to estimate the number of cases and costs of each condition. The estimates were adjusted for differences in prices using Medicare geographical adjusters. An estimated $98 billion is currently spent on treating chronic conditions in California. There is significant variation between counties in the percentage of total health care expenditure due to chronic conditions and county size, ranging from a low 32% to a high of 63%. The variations between counties result from differing rates of chronic conditions across age, ethnicity, and gender. Information on the cost of chronic conditions is important for planning prevention and control efforts. This study demonstrates a method for providing local health departments with estimates of the scope of the problems in their region. Combining the cost estimates with information on current prevention strategies can identify gaps in prevention activities and the prevention measures that promise the greatest return on investment for each county.

Physical therapy workforce shortage for aging and aged societies in Thailand.

PubMed

Kraiwong, Ratchanok; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana; Soonthorndhada, Kusol

2014-07-01

According to demographic changes, the size of the aging population has rapidly increased. Thailand has been facing the "aging society" since 2005 and the "aged society" has been projected to appear by the year 2025. Increased life expectancy is associated with health problems and risks, specifically chronic diseases and disability. Aging and aged societies and related specific conditions as stroke require the provision of services from health professionals. The shortage of the physical therapy workforce in Thailand has been reported. This study investigated the size of physical therapy workforce required for the approaching aging society of Thailand and estimated the number of needed physical therapists, specifically regarding stroke condition. Evidently, the issue of the physical therapy workforce to serve aging and aged societies in Thailand requires advocating and careful arranging.

Spending on Children’s Personal Health Care in the United States, 1996–2013

PubMed Central

Bui, Anthony L.; Dieleman, Joseph L.; Hamavid, Hannah; Birger, Maxwell; Chapin, Abigail; Duber, Herbert C.; Horst, Cody; Reynolds, Alex; Squires, Ellen; Chung, Paul J.; Murray, Christopher J. L.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE Health care spending on children in the United States continues to rise, yet little is known about how this spending varies by condition, age and sex group, and type of care, nor how these patterns have changed over time. OBJECTIVE To provide health care spending estimates for children and adolescents 19 years and younger in the United States from 1996 through 2013, disaggregated by condition, age and sex group, and type of care. EVIDENCE REVIEW Health care spending estimates were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Disease Expenditure 2013 project database. This project, based on 183 sources of data and 2.9 billion patient records, disaggregated health care spending in the United States by condition, age and sex group, and type of care. Annual estimates were produced for each year from 1996 through 2013. Estimates were adjusted for the presence of comorbidities and are reported using inflation-adjusted 2015 US dollars. FINDINGS From 1996 to 2013, health care spending on children increased from $149.6 (uncertainty interval [UI], 144.1–155.5) billion to $233.5 (UI, 226.9–239.8) billion. In 2013, the largest health condition leading to health care spending for children was well-newborn care in the inpatient setting. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and well-dental care (including dental check-ups and orthodontia) were the second and third largest conditions, respectively. Spending per child was greatest for infants younger than 1 year, at $11 741 (UI, 10 799–12 765) in 2013. Across time, health care spending per child increased from $1915 (UI, 1845–1991) in 1996 to $2777 (UI, 2698–2851) in 2013. The greatest areas of growth in spending in absolute terms were ambulatory care among all types of care and inpatient well-newborn care, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and asthma among all conditions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings provide health policy makers and health care professionals with evidence to help guide future spending. Some conditions, such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and inpatient well-newborn care, had larger health care spending growth rates than other conditions. PMID:28027344

Forecasting the impact of heart failure in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Heidenreich, Paul A; Albert, Nancy M; Allen, Larry A; Bluemke, David A; Butler, Javed; Fonarow, Gregg C; Ikonomidis, John S; Khavjou, Olga; Konstam, Marvin A; Maddox, Thomas M; Nichol, Graham; Pham, Michael; Piña, Ileana L; Trogdon, Justin G

2013-05-01

Heart failure (HF) is an important contributor to both the burden and cost of national healthcare expenditures, with more older Americans hospitalized for HF than for any other medical condition. With the aging of the population, the impact of HF is expected to increase substantially. We estimated future costs of HF by adapting a methodology developed by the American Heart Association to project the epidemiology and future costs of HF from 2012 to 2030 without double counting the costs attributed to comorbid conditions. The model assumes that HF prevalence will remain constant by age, sex, and race/ethnicity and that rising costs and technological innovation will continue at the same rate. By 2030, >8 million people in the United States (1 in every 33) will have HF. Between 2012 and 2030, real (2010$) total direct medical costs of HF are projected to increase from $21 billion to $53 billion. Total costs, including indirect costs for HF, are estimated to increase from $31 billion in 2012 to $70 billion in 2030. If one assumes all costs of cardiac care for HF patients are attributable to HF (no cost attribution to comorbid conditions), the 2030 projected cost estimates of treating patients with HF will be 3-fold higher ($160 billion in direct costs). The estimated prevalence and cost of care for HF will increase markedly because of aging of the population. Strategies to prevent HF and improve the efficiency of care are needed.

Forecasting the Impact of Heart Failure in the United States

PubMed Central

Heidenreich, Paul A.; Albert, Nancy M.; Allen, Larry A.; Bluemke, David A.; Butler, Javed; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Ikonomidis, John S.; Khavjou, Olga; Konstam, Marvin A.; Maddox, Thomas M.; Nichol, Graham; Pham, Michael; Piña, Ileana L.; Trogdon, Justin G.

2013-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) is an important contributor to both the burden and cost of national healthcare expenditures, with more older Americans hospitalized for HF than for any other medical condition. With the aging of the population, the impact of HF is expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results We estimated future costs of HF by adapting a methodology developed by the American Heart Association to project the epidemiology and future costs of HF from 2012 to 2030 without double counting the costs attributed to comorbid conditions. The model assumes that HF prevalence will remain constant by age, sex, and race/ethnicity and that rising costs and technological innovation will continue at the same rate. By 2030, >8 million people in the United States (1 in every 33) will have HF. Between 2012 and 2030, real (2010$) total direct medical costs of HF are projected to increase from $21 billion to $53 billion. Total costs, including indirect costs for HF, are estimated to increase from $31 billion in 2012 to $70 billion in 2030. If one assumes all costs of cardiac care for HF patients are attributable to HF (no cost attribution to comorbid conditions), the 2030 projected cost estimates of treating patients with HF will be 3-fold higher ($160 billion in direct costs). Conclusions The estimated prevalence and cost of care for HF will increase markedly because of aging of the population. Strategies to prevent HF and improve the efficiency of care are needed. PMID:23616602

Hyperhidrosis: an update on prevalence and severity in the United States.

PubMed

Doolittle, James; Walker, Patricia; Mills, Thomas; Thurston, Jane

2016-12-01

Current published estimates of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the United States are outdated and underestimate the true prevalence of the condition. The objectives of this study are to provide an updated estimate of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the US population and to further assess the severity and impact of sweating on those affected by the condition. For the purposes of obtaining prevalence, a nationally representative sample of 8160 individuals were selected using an online panel, and information as to whether or not they experience hyperhidrosis was obtained. The 393 individuals (210 female, 244 non-Hispanic white, 27 black, mean age 40.3, SE 0.64) who indicated that they have hyperhidrosis were asked further questions, including body areas impacted, severity of symptoms, age of onset, and socioemotional impact of the condition. Current results estimate the prevalence of hyperhidrosis at 4.8 %, which represents approximately 15.3 million people in the United States. Of these, 70 % report severe excessive sweating in at least one body area. In spite of this, only 51 % have discussed their excessive sweating with a healthcare professional. The main reasons are a belief that hyperhidrosis is not a medical condition and that no treatment options exist. The current study's findings with regard to age of onset and prevalence by body area generally align with the previous research. However, current findings suggest that the severity and prevalence are both higher than previously thought, indicating a need for greater awareness of the condition and its associated treatment options among medical professionals.

A Simple Method for Estimating Informative Node Age Priors for the Fossil Calibration of Molecular Divergence Time Analyses

PubMed Central

Nowak, Michael D.; Smith, Andrew B.; Simpson, Carl; Zwickl, Derrick J.

2013-01-01

Molecular divergence time analyses often rely on the age of fossil lineages to calibrate node age estimates. Most divergence time analyses are now performed in a Bayesian framework, where fossil calibrations are incorporated as parametric prior probabilities on node ages. It is widely accepted that an ideal parameterization of such node age prior probabilities should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the fossil record of the clade of interest, but there is currently no generally applicable approach for calculating such informative priors. We provide here a simple and easily implemented method that employs fossil data to estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade, which can be used to fit an informative parametric prior probability distribution on a node age. Specifically, our method uses the extant diversity and the stratigraphic distribution of fossil lineages confidently assigned to a clade to fit a branching model of lineage diversification. Conditioning this on a simple model of fossil preservation, we estimate the likely amount of missing history prior to the oldest fossil occurrence of a clade. The likelihood surface of missing history can then be translated into a parametric prior probability distribution on the age of the clade of interest. We show that the method performs well with simulated fossil distribution data, but that the likelihood surface of missing history can at times be too complex for the distribution-fitting algorithm employed by our software tool. An empirical example of the application of our method is performed to estimate echinoid node ages. A simulation-based sensitivity analysis using the echinoid data set shows that node age prior distributions estimated under poor preservation rates are significantly less informative than those estimated under high preservation rates. PMID:23755303

Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

PubMed

Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

2013-09-01

Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival of Parents and Siblings of Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V.; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T.

2011-01-01

Background Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age ≥ 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Methods Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Results Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians’ siblings was ~81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%–20% (12–14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%–14% (8–10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. Conclusions The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility. PMID:17895443

Survival of parents and siblings of supercentenarians.

PubMed

Perls, Thomas; Kohler, Iliana V; Andersen, Stacy; Schoenhofen, Emily; Pennington, JaeMi; Young, Robert; Terry, Dellara; Elo, Irma T

2007-09-01

Given previous evidence of familial predisposition for longevity, we hypothesized that siblings and parents of supercentenarians (age >or= 110 years) were predisposed to survival to very old age and that, relative to their birth cohorts, their relative survival probabilities (RSPs) are even higher than what has been observed for the siblings of centenarians. Mean age at death conditional upon survival to ages 20 and 50 and survival probabilities from ages 20 and 50 to higher ages were determined for 50 male and 56 female siblings and 54 parents of 29 supercentenarians. These estimates were contrasted with comparable estimates based on birth cohort-specific mortality experience for the United States and Sweden. Conditional on survival to age 20 years, mean age at death of supercentenarians' siblings was approximately 81 years for men and women. Compared with respective Swedish and U.S. birth cohorts, these estimates were 17%-20% (12-14 years) higher for the brothers and 11%-14% (8-10 years) higher for the sisters. Sisters had a 2.9 times greater probability and brothers had a 4.3 times greater probability of survival from age 20 to age 90. Mothers of supercentenarians had a 5.8 times greater probability of surviving from age 50 to age 90. Fathers also experienced an increased survival probability from age 50 to age 90 of 2.7, but it failed to attain statistical significance. The RSPs of siblings and mothers of supercentenarians revealed a substantial survival advantage and were most pronounced at the oldest ages. The RSP to age 90 for siblings of supercentenarians was approximately the same as that reported for siblings of centenarians. It is possible that greater RSPs are observed for reaching even higher ages such as 100 years, but a larger sample of supercentenarians and their siblings and parents is needed to investigate this possibility.

Injuries at Work in the US Adult Population: Contributions to the Total Injury Burden

PubMed Central

Smith, Gordon S.; Wellman, Helen M.; Sorock, Gary S.; Warner, Margaret; Courtney, Theodore K.; Pransky, Glenn S.; Fingerhut, Lois A.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the contribution of nonfatal work-related injuries on the injury burden among working-age adults (aged 18–64 years) in the United States. Methods. We used the 1997–1999 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate injury rates and proportions of work-related vs non–work-related injuries. Results. An estimated 19.4 million medically treated injuries occurred annually to working-age adults (11.7 episodes per 100 persons; 95% confidence interval [CI]=11.3, 12.1); 29%, or 5.5 million (4.5 per 100 persons; 95% CI=4.2, 4.7), occurred at work and varied by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. Among employed persons, 38% of injuries occurred at work, and among employed men aged 55–64 years, 49% of injuries occurred at work. Conclusions. Injuries at work comprise a substantial part of the injury burden, accounting for nearly half of all injuries in some age groups. The NHIS provides an important source of population-based data with which to determine the work relatedness of injuries. Study estimates of days away from work after injury were 1.8 times higher than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) workplace-based estimates and 1.4 times as high as BLS estimates for private industry. The prominence of occupational injuries among injuries to working-age adults reinforces the need to examine workplace conditions in efforts to reduce the societal impact of injuries. PMID:15983273

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.

2002-01-01

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

Lifetime Extension Report: Progress on the SAVY-4000 Lifetime Extension Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Welch, Cynthia F.; Smith, Paul Herrick; Weis, Eric M.

The 3-year accelerated aging study of the SAVY-4000 O-ring shows very little evidence of significant degradation to samples subjected to aggressive elevated temperature and radiation conditions. Whole container thermal aging studies followed by helium leakage testing and compression set measurements were used to establish an estimate for a failure criterion for O-ring compression set of ≥65 %. The whole container aging studies further show that the air flow and efficiency functions of the filter do not degrade significantly after thermal aging. However, the degradation of the water-resistant function leads to water penetration failure after four months at 210°C, but doesmore » not cause failure after 10 months at 120°C (130°C is the maximum operating temperature for the PTFE membrane). The thermal aging data for O-ring compression set do not meet the assumptions of standard time-temperature superposition analysis for accelerated aging studies. Instead, the data suggest that multiple degradation mechanisms are operative, with a reversible mechanism operative at low aging temperatures and an irreversible mechanism dominating at high aging temperatures. To distinguish between these mechanisms, we have measured compression set after allowing the sample to physically relax, thereby minimizing the effect of the reversible mechanism. The resulting data were analyzed using two distinct mathematical methods to obtain a lifetime estimate based on chemical degradation alone. Both methods support a lifetime estimate of greater than 150 years at 80°C. Although the role of the reversible mechanism is not fully understood, it is clear that the contribution to the total compression set is small in comparison to that due to the chemical degradation mechanism. To better understand the chemical degradation mechanism, thermally aged O-ring samples have been characterized by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR), Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR), Gel Permeation Chromatography (GPC), and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). These experiments detect no significant O-ring degradation below 80°C. Furthermore, durometer measurements indicate that there is no significant change in O-ring hardness at all aging conditions examined. Therefore, our current conservative lifetime estimate for the O-ring and the filter is 10 years at 80°C. In FY17, we will continue to probe the chemical degradation mechanism using oxygen consumption measurements under accelerated aging conditions to reveal temperatures at which oxidation occurs, along with any differences in oxidation rate at the low vs. high aging temperatures. We will also refine the failure criteria and finalize the radiation/thermal synergistic studies to determine a final design lifetime.« less

Validation of State Counts of Handicapped Children. Volume II--Estimation of the Number of Handicapped Children in Each State.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaskowitz, David H.

The booklet provides detailed estimates on handicapping conditions for school aged populations. The figures are intended to help the federal government validate state child count data as required by P.L. 94-142, the Education for All Handicapped Children. Section I uncovers the methodology used to arrive at the estimates, and it identifies the…

Vocal Age Disguise: The Role of Fundamental Frequency and Speech Rate and Its Perceived Effects

PubMed Central

Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten

2016-01-01

The relationship between vocal characteristics and perceived age is of interest in various contexts, as is the possibility to affect age perception through vocal manipulation. A few examples of such situations are when age is staged by actors, when ear witnesses make age assessments based on vocal cues only or when offenders (e.g., online groomers) disguise their voice to appear younger or older. This paper investigates how speakers spontaneously manipulate two age related vocal characteristics (f0 and speech rate) in attempt to sound younger versus older than their true age, and if the manipulations correspond to actual age related changes in f0 and speech rate (Study 1). Further aims of the paper is to determine how successful vocal age disguise is by asking listeners to estimate the age of generated speech samples (Study 2) and to examine whether or not listeners use f0 and speech rate as cues to perceived age. In Study 1, participants from three age groups (20–25, 40–45, and 60–65 years) agreed to read a short text under three voice conditions. There were 12 speakers in each age group (six women and six men). They used their natural voice in one condition, attempted to sound 20 years younger in another and 20 years older in a third condition. In Study 2, 60 participants (listeners) listened to speech samples from the three voice conditions in Study 1 and estimated the speakers’ age. Each listener was exposed to all three voice conditions. The results from Study 1 indicated that the speakers increased fundamental frequency (f0) and speech rate when attempting to sound younger and decreased f0 and speech rate when attempting to sound older. Study 2 showed that the voice manipulations had an effect in the sought-after direction, although the achieved mean effect was only 3 years, which is far less than the intended effect of 20 years. Moreover, listeners used speech rate, but not f0, as a cue to speaker age. It was concluded that age disguise by voice can be achieved by naïve speakers even though the perceived effect was smaller than intended. PMID:27917144

Multimorbidity in Middle-Aged Adults with Cerebral Palsy

PubMed Central

Cremer, Nicole; Hurvitz, Edward A.; Peterson, Mark D.

2017-01-01

Background Individuals with cerebral palsy have less lean body mass, greater relative adiposity, and lower fitness and physical activity participation; and yet, the prevalence of age-related multimorbidity in this population has yet to be established. Purpose To examine the prevalence of lifestyle-related chronic conditions and multimorbidity in a sample of middle-aged adults with cerebral palsy. Methods A clinic-based sample of middle-aged adults with cerebral palsy was examined using Electronic Medical Records Search Engine (EMERSE) software. Our cohort included n= 435 individuals aged 40–60 years old, with an ICD-9/10-CM Diagnosis Code for cerebral palsy. Prevalence of 12 chronic conditions were evaluated, including existing diagnoses or historical record of: osteopenia/osteoporosis, myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary artery disease, impaired glucose tolerance/type 2 diabetes, other cardiovascular conditions, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, asthma, emphysema, pre-hypertension/hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. Multivariate logistic models were used to estimate adjusted mulitmorbidity (i.e., ≥2 chronic conditions), adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, obesity, and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS). Results There were 137 unique multimorbidity combinations. Multimorbidity was significantly more prevalent among obese versus non-obese individuals for both GMFCS I–III (75.8% vs. 53.6%) and GMFCS IV–V (79.0% vs 64.2%), but was also significantly higher in non-obese individuals with GMFCS IV–V (64.2%) compared to individuals with non-obese individuals with GMFCS I–III (53.6%). Both obesity status (OR: 2.20; 95% CI 1.32–2.79) and the GMFCS IV–V category (OR: 1.81; 95% CI 1.32–3.68) were independently associated with multimorbidity. Conclusion Middle-aged adults with cerebral palsy have high estimates of multimorbidity, and both obesity and higher GMFCS levels are independently associated with greater risk. PMID:28065772

Study of cyclic thermal aging of tube type receivers as a function of the duration of the cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setien, Eneko; Fernández-Reche, Jesús; Ariza, María Jesús; Álvarez-de-Lara, Mónica

2017-06-01

The tube type receivers are exposed to variable duration cyclic operating conditions, which can jeopardize its reliability, and make it hard to estimate its long term performance. The designers have to deal with this problem and estimate the receiver long term performance based on the poor available litterature and the data sheets of the material. In order to help the designer better estimate the performance of the receivers, in this paper the cyclic thermal aging is analyzed as a function of the cycle duration. For this purpose, coated and uncoated Inconel alloy 625 tubular samples, similar to those used in the commercial receivers, are cyclically aged with different thermal cycle duration. The aging of these samples has been analyzed by means of oxidation kinetics, microstructure examination and mechanical and optical properties. The effect of the thermal cycle duration is studied and discussed by comparison of the results.

Multiple Comorbid Conditions among Middle-Aged and Elderly Hemophilia Patients: Prevalence Estimates and Implications for Future Care

PubMed Central

Khleif, Aroub A.; Rodriguez, Nidra; Brown, Deborah; Escobar, Miguel A.

2011-01-01

Introduction. Advances in hemophilia care and treatment have led to increases in the life expectancy among hemophiliacs. As a result, persons with hemophilia are reaching an older age and experiencing various age-related health conditions never seen before in this population. Aim. To determine the prevalence of comorbidities among middle-aged and elderly hemophilia A and hemophilia B patients. Methods. Retrospective chart review among all hemophilia patients, who attended the Gulf States Hemophilia and Thrombophilia Center. Results. All patients had at least one comorbid condition other than hemophilia, and the majority had between 3 and 6 comorbidities. The most common conditions identified were chronic hepatitis C, hypertension, HIV, chronic arthropathy, and overweight/obesity. Conclusions. Since persons with comorbidities are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require greater care in managing their health needs, caring for aging hemophiliacs is likely to pose various social and economic challenges for both patients and providers. PMID:21912745

Correcting anthropogenic ocean heat uptake estimates for the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebbie, Geoffrey

2017-04-01

Estimates of anthropogenic ocean heat uptake typically assume that the ocean was in equilibrium during the pre-industrial era. Recent reconstructions of the Common Era, however, show a multi-century surface cooling trend before the Industrial Revolution. Using a time-evolving state estimation method, we find that the 1750 C.E. ocean must have been out of equilibrium in order to fit the H.M.S. Challenger, WOCE, and Argo hydrographic data. When the disequilibrated ocean conditions are taken into account, the inferred ocean heat uptake from 1750-2014 C.E. is revised due to the deep ocean memory of Little Ice Age surface forcing. These effects of ocean disequilibrium should also be considered when interpreting climate sensitivity estimates.

Development of a foraging model framework to reliably estimate daily food consumption by young fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deslauriers, David; Rosburg, Alex J.; Chipps, Steven R.

2017-01-01

We developed a foraging model for young fishes that incorporates handling and digestion rate to estimate daily food consumption. Feeding trials were used to quantify functional feeding response, satiation, and gut evacuation rate. Once parameterized, the foraging model was then applied to evaluate effects of prey type, prey density, water temperature, and fish size on daily feeding rate by age-0 (19–70 mm) pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Prey consumption was positively related to prey density (for fish >30 mm) and water temperature, but negatively related to prey size and the presence of sand substrate. Model evaluation results revealed good agreement between observed estimates of daily consumption and those predicted by the model (r2 = 0.95). Model simulations showed that fish feeding on Chironomidae or Ephemeroptera larvae were able to gain mass, whereas fish feeding solely on zooplankton lost mass under most conditions. By accounting for satiation and digestive processes in addition to handling time and prey density, the model provides realistic estimates of daily food consumption that can prove useful for evaluating rearing conditions for age-0 fishes.

[Age factor in a complex evaluation of health of air staff].

PubMed

Ushakov, I B; Batishcheva, G A; Chernov, Iu N; Khomenko, M N; Soldatov, S K

2010-03-01

Was elaborated program of a complex of estimation of health condition of air staff with determination of capability of early diagnostic of functional tension of physiological systems. According to this system there were observed 73 airmen using a complex of tests (estimation of level of pectoral control, of personal and reactive anxiety, vegetal regulation etc.). Was detected, that length of service and sympato-adrenaline activeness with vicarious decrease of adrenoreactiveness are in direct proportion. Were marked the most informative indexes of estimation of functional tension of psycho-physiological functions, vegetative regulation and cardiovascular system. Was shown that the elaborated system of individual estimation of health of air staff permits diagnose prenosological conditions and determine indexes for rehabilitation treatment.

The Effectiveness of Child Restraint Systems for Children Aged 3 Years or Younger During Motor Vehicle Collisions: 1996 to 2005

PubMed Central

Anderson, Craig L.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the effectiveness of child restraints in preventing death during motor vehicle collisions among children 3 years or younger. Methods. We conducted a matched cohort study using Fatality Analysis Reporting System data from 1996 to 2005. We estimated death risk ratios using conditional Poisson regression, bootstrapping, multiple imputation, and a sensitivity analysis of misclassification bias. We examined possible effect modification by selected factors. Results. The estimated death risk ratios comparing child safety seats with no restraint were 0.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.21, 0.34) for infants, 0.24 (95% CI = 0.19, 0.30) for children aged 1 year, 0.40 (95% CI = 0.32, 0.51) for those aged 2 years, and 0.41 (95% CI = 0.33, 0.52) for those aged 3 years. Estimated safety seat effectiveness was greater during rollover collisions, in rural environments, and in light trucks. We estimated seat belts to be as effective as safety seats in preventing death for children aged 2 and 3 years. Conclusions. Child safety seats are highly effective in reducing the risk of death during severe traffic collisions and generally outperform seat belts. Parents should be encouraged to use child safety seats in favor of seat belts. PMID:19059860

Rib biomechanical properties exhibit diagnostic potential for accurate ageing in forensic investigations

PubMed Central

Bonicelli, Andrea; Xhemali, Bledar; Kranioti, Elena F.

2017-01-01

Age estimation remains one of the most challenging tasks in forensic practice when establishing a biological profile of unknown skeletonised remains. Morphological methods based on developmental markers of bones can provide accurate age estimates at a young age, but become highly unreliable for ages over 35 when all developmental markers disappear. This study explores the changes in the biomechanical properties of bone tissue and matrix, which continue to change with age even after skeletal maturity, and their potential value for age estimation. As a proof of concept we investigated the relationship of 28 variables at the macroscopic and microscopic level in rib autopsy samples from 24 individuals. Stepwise regression analysis produced a number of equations one of which with seven variables showed an R2 = 0.949; a mean residual error of 2.13 yrs ±0.4 (SD) and a maximum residual error value of 2.88 yrs. For forensic purposes, by using only bench top machines in tests which can be carried out within 36 hrs, a set of just 3 variables produced an equation with an R2 = 0.902 a mean residual error of 3.38 yrs ±2.6 (SD) and a maximum observed residual error 9.26yrs. This method outstrips all existing age-at-death methods based on ribs, thus providing a novel lab based accurate tool in the forensic investigation of human remains. The present application is optimised for fresh (uncompromised by taphonomic conditions) remains, but the potential of the principle and method is vast once the trends of the biomechanical variables are established for other environmental conditions and circumstances. PMID:28520764

An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

2011-01-01

Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

Estimates of growth and mortality of under-yearling smallmouth bass in Spednic Lake, from 1970 through 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Trial, Joan G.

2014-01-01

This report is the product of a 2013 cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the International Joint Commission, and the Maine Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat to quantify the effects of meteorological conditions (from 1970 through 2008) on the survival of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the first year of life in Spednic Lake. This report documents the data and methods used to estimate historical daily mean lake surface-water temperatures from early spring through late autumn, which were used to estimate the dates of smallmouth bass spawning, young-of-the-year growth, and probable strength of each year class. Mortality of eggs and fry in nests was modeled and estimated to exceed 10 percent in 17 of 39 years; during those years, cold temperatures in the early part of the spawning period resulted in mortality to fish that were estimated to have had the longest growing season and attain the greatest length. Modeled length-dependent overwinter survival combined with early mortality identified 1986, 1994, 1996, and 2004 as the years in which temperature was likely to have presented the greatest challenge to year-class strength in the Spednic Lake fishery. Age distribution of bass in fisheries on lakes in the St. Croix and surrounding watersheds confirmed that conditions in 1986 and 1996 resulted in weak smallmouth bass year classes (age-four or age-five bass representing less than 15 percent of a 100-fish sample).

Trends in Childhood Influenza Vaccination Coverage—U.S., 2004–2012

PubMed Central

Lu, Peng-Jun; O'Halloran, Alissa; Meghani, Ankita; Grabowsky, Mark; Singleton, James A.

2014-01-01

Objective We compared estimates of childhood influenza vaccination coverage by health status, age, and racial/ethnic group across eight consecutive influenza seasons (2004 through 2012) based on two survey systems to assess trends in childhood influenza vaccination coverage in the U.S. Methods We used National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and National Immunization Survey-Flu (NIS-Flu) data to estimate receipt of at least one dose of influenza vaccination among children aged 6 months to 17 years based on parental report. We computed estimates using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis methods. Results Based on the NHIS, overall influenza vaccination coverage with at least one dose of influenza vaccine among children increased from 16.2% during the 2004–2005 influenza season to 47.1% during the 2011–2012 influenza season. Children with health conditions that put them at high risk for complications from influenza had higher influenza vaccination coverage than children without these health conditions for all the seasons studied. In seven of the eight seasons studied, there were no significant differences in influenza vaccination coverage between non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white children. Influenza vaccination coverage estimates for children were slightly higher based on NIS-Flu data compared with NHIS data for the 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 influenza seasons (4.1 and 4.4 percentage points higher, respectively); both NIS-Flu and NHIS estimates had similar patterns of decreasing vaccination coverage with increasing age. Conclusions Although influenza vaccination coverage among children continued to increase, by the 2011–2012 influenza season, only slightly less than half of U.S. children were vaccinated against influenza. Much improvement is needed to ensure all children aged ≥6 months are vaccinated annually against influenza. PMID:25177053

Delayed deglaciation or extreme Arctic conditions 21-16 cal. kyr at southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet margin?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peteet, D. M.; Beh, M.; Orr, C.

The conventionally accepted ages of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) are 26–21 cal. kyr (derived from bulk-sediment radiocarbon ages) and 28–23 cal. kyr (varve estimates). By utilizing accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of earliest macrofossils in 13 lake/bog inorganic clays, we find that vegetation first appeared on the landscape at 16–15 cal. kyr, suggesting ice had not retreated until that time. The gap between previous age estimates and ours is significant and has large implications for our understanding of ocean-atmosphere linkages. Older ages imply extreme Arctic conditions for 9–5 cal kyr;more » a landscape with no ice, yet no deposition in lakes. Also, our new AMS chronology of LIS retreat is consistent with marine evidence of deglaciation from the N. Atlantic, showing significant freshwater input and sea level rise only after 19 cal kyr with a cold meltwater lid, perhaps delaying ice melt.« less

Delayed deglaciation or extreme Arctic conditions 21-16 cal. kyr at southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet margin?

DOE PAGES

Peteet, D. M.; Beh, M.; Orr, C.; ...

2012-06-15

The conventionally accepted ages of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) are 26–21 cal. kyr (derived from bulk-sediment radiocarbon ages) and 28–23 cal. kyr (varve estimates). By utilizing accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of earliest macrofossils in 13 lake/bog inorganic clays, we find that vegetation first appeared on the landscape at 16–15 cal. kyr, suggesting ice had not retreated until that time. The gap between previous age estimates and ours is significant and has large implications for our understanding of ocean-atmosphere linkages. Older ages imply extreme Arctic conditions for 9–5 cal kyr;more » a landscape with no ice, yet no deposition in lakes. Also, our new AMS chronology of LIS retreat is consistent with marine evidence of deglaciation from the N. Atlantic, showing significant freshwater input and sea level rise only after 19 cal kyr with a cold meltwater lid, perhaps delaying ice melt.« less

Clinically important respiratory effects of dust exposure and smoking in British coal miners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marine, W.M.; Gurr, D.; Jacobsen, M.

A unique data set of 3380 British coal miners has been reanalyzed with major focus on nonpneumoconiotic respiratory conditions. The aim was to assess the independent contribution of smoking and exposure to respirable dust to clinically significant measures of respiratory dysfunction. Exposure to coal-mine dust was monitored over a 10-yr period. Medical surveys provided estimates of prior dust exposure and recorded respiratory symptoms. Each man's FEV1 was compared with the level predicted for his age and height by an internally derived prediction equation for FEV1. Four respiratory indices were considered at the end of the 10-yr period: FEV1 less thanmore » 80%, chronic bronchitis, chronic bronchitis with FEV1 less than 80%, and FEV1 less than 65%. Results were uniformly incorporated into logistic regression equations for each condition. The equations include coefficients for age, dust, and when indicated, an interaction term for age and dust. Dust-related increases in prevalence of each of the 4 conditions were statistically significant and were similar for smokers and nonsmokers at the mean age (47 yr). There was no evidence that smoking potentiates the effect of exposure to dust. Estimates of prevalences at the mean age of all 4 measures of respiratory dysfunction were greater in smokers. At intermediate and high dust exposure the prevalence of the 4 conditions in nonsmokers approached the prevalence in smokers at hypothetically zero dust exposure. Both smoking and dust exposure can cause clinically important respiratory dysfunction and their separate contributions to obstructive airway disease in coal miners appear to be additive.« less

Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysing outcome and referral variations.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-12-01

This paper considers the development of estimates of mental illness prevalence for small areas and applications in explaining psychiatric outcomes and in assessing service provision. Estimates of prevalence are based on a logistic regression analysis of two national studies that provides model based estimates of relative morbidity risk by demographic, socio-economic and ethnic group for major psychiatric conditions; household/marital and area status also figure in the regression. Relative risk estimates are used, along with suitably disaggregated census populations, to make prevalence estimates for 354 English local authorities (LAs). Two applications are considered: the first involves analysis of variations in schizophrenia referrals and suicide mortality over English LAs that takes account of prevalence differences, and the second involves assessing hospital referral and bed use in relation to prevalence (for ages 16-74) for a case study area, Waltham Forest in NE London.

Prevalence of Untreated Surgical Conditions in Rural Rwanda: A Population-Based Cross-sectional Study in Burera District.

PubMed

Maine, Rebecca G; Linden, Allison F; Riviello, Robert; Kamanzi, Emmanuel; Mody, Gita N; Ntakiyiruta, Georges; Kansayisa, Grace; Ntaganda, Edmond; Niyonkuru, Francine; Mubiligi, Joel M; Mpunga, Tharcisse; Meara, John G; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

2017-12-20

In low- and middle-income countries, community-level surgical epidemiology is largely undefined. Accurate community-level surgical epidemiology is necessary for surgical health systems planning. To determine the prevalence of surgical conditions in Burera District, Northern Province, Rwanda. A cross-sectional study with a 2-stage cluster sample design (at village and household level) was carried out in Burera District in March and May 2012. A team of surgeons randomly sampled 30 villages with probability proportionate to village population size, then sampled 23 households within each village. All available household members were examined. The presence of 10 index surgical conditions (injuries/wounds, hernias/hydroceles, breast masses, neck masses, obstetric fistulas, undescended testes, hypospadias, hydrocephalus, cleft lip/palate, and clubfoot) was determined by physical examination. Prevalence was estimated overall and for each condition. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with surgical conditions, accounting for the complex survey design. Of the 2165 examined individuals, 1215 (56.2%) were female. The prevalence of any surgical condition among all examined individuals was 12% (95% CI, 9.2-14.9%). Half of conditions were hernias/hydroceles (49.6%), and 44% were injuries/wounds. In multivariable analysis, children 5 years or younger had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with married individuals 21 to 35 years of age (reference group) (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.26-4.04; P = .01). The oldest group, people older than 50 years, also had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with the reference group (married, aged >50 years: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.28-4.23; P = .01; unmarried, aged >50 years: OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.02-5.52; P = .06). Unmarried individuals 21 to 35 years of age and unmarried individuals aged 36 to 50 years had higher odds of a surgical condition compared with the reference group (aged 21-35 years: OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.74-3.82; P = .22; aged 36-50 years: OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.29-9.11; P = .02). There was no statistical difference in odds by sex, wealth, education, or travel time to the nearest hospital. The prevalence of surgically treatable conditions in northern Rwanda was considerably higher than previously estimated modeling and surveys in comparable low- and middle-income countries. This surgical backlog must be addressed in health system plans to increase surgical infrastructure and workforce in rural Africa.

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

PubMed

Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

2006-08-01

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

The effect of age and body composition on body mass estimation of males using the stature/bi-iliac method.

PubMed

Junno, Juho-Antti; Niskanen, Markku; Maijanen, Heli; Holt, Brigitte; Sladek, Vladimir; Niinimäki, Sirpa; Berner, Margit

2018-02-01

The stature/bi-iliac breadth method provides reasonably precise, skeletal frame size (SFS) based body mass (BM) estimations across adults as a whole. In this study, we examine the potential effects of age changes in anthropometric dimensions on the estimation accuracy of SFS-based body mass estimation. We use anthropometric data from the literature and our own skeletal data from two osteological collections to study effects of age on stature, bi-iliac breadth, body mass, and body composition, as they are major components behind body size and body size estimations. We focus on males, as relevant longitudinal data are based on male study samples. As a general rule, lean body mass (LBM) increases through adolescence and early adulthood until people are aged in their 30s or 40s, and starts to decline in the late 40s or early 50s. Fat mass (FM) tends to increase until the mid-50s and declines thereafter, but in more mobile traditional societies it may decline throughout adult life. Because BM is the sum of LBM and FM, it exhibits a curvilinear age-related pattern in all societies. Skeletal frame size is based on stature and bi-iliac breadth, and both of those dimensions are affected by age. Skeletal frame size based body mass estimation tends to increase throughout adult life in both skeletal and anthropometric samples because an age-related increase in bi-iliac breadth more than compensates for an age-related stature decline commencing in the 30s or 40s. Combined with the above-mentioned curvilinear BM change, this results in curvilinear estimation bias. However, for simulations involving low to moderate percent body fat, the stature/bi-iliac method works well in predicting body mass in younger and middle-aged adults. Such conditions are likely to have applied to most human paleontological and archaeological samples. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Anaemia and Associated Factors among Children below Five Years of Age in Cape Verde, West Africa

PubMed Central

Semedo, Rosa M.L.; Santos, Marta M.A.S.; Baião, Mirian R.; Luiz, Ronir R.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT This study estimated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors in a probability sample of 993 children aged 6-59 months in Cape Verde, West Africa. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated from a hierarchical model for multiple analysis to assess the association between anaemia and explanatory variables. The prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% (95% CI 47.7-55.8). Children who resided within poor household conditions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.06-3.71) were below 24 months of age (OR 3.23; 95% CI 2.03-5.15) and recently experienced diarrhoea (OR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.50) were at high risk of anaemia. Anaemia should be considered a serious public-health concern in Cape Verde, mainly for children below 24 months. Further, special consideration should be given to children who have experienced recent diarrhoea and belong to families residing in poor household conditions. PMID:25895198

Prevalence of anaemia and associated factors among children below five years of age in Cape Verde, West Africa.

PubMed

Semedo, Rosa M L; Santos, Marta M A S; Baião, Mirian R; Luiz, Ronir R; da Veiga, Gloria V

2014-12-01

This study estimated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors in a probability sample of 993 chil- dren aged 6-59 months in Cape Verde, West Africa. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated from a hierarchical model for multiple analysis to assess the association between anaemia and explanatory variables. The prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% (95% CI 47.7-55.8). Children who resided within poor household conditions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.06-3.71) were below 24 months of age (OR 3.23; 95% CI 2.03-5.15) and recently experienced diarrhoea (OR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.50) were at high risk of anaemia. Anaemia should be considered a serious public-health concern in Cape Verde, mainly for chil- dren below 24 months. Further, special consideration should be given to children who have experienced recent diarrhoea and belong to families residing in poor household conditions.

Influence of Smallmouth Bass predation on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in South Dakota glacial lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Willis, D.W.; Blackwell, B. G.; Chipps, Steven R.; Bacula, T. D.; Wuellner, M.R.

2015-01-01

We estimated the influence of predation by Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu on recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch Perca flavescens in two northeastern South Dakota glacial lakes. We estimated a likely range in consumption of age-0 Yellow Perch using Smallmouth Bass diet information from two time periods when age-0 Yellow Perch constituted high (2008) and low (2012 and 2013) proportions of Smallmouth Bass diets, and bass population size estimates as inputs in a bioenergetics model. The proportion of age-0 Yellow Perch consumed by the Smallmouth Bass populations was determined by comparing estimates of consumption with estimates of age-0 perch production. During 2008, age-0 Yellow Perch constituted between 0% and 42% of Smallmouth Bass diets by weight, whereas during 2012 and 2013, age-0 perch constituted between 0% and 20% of bass diets by weight. Across both lakes and time periods, production of age-0 Yellow Perch ranged from 0.32 to 1.78 kg·ha−1·week−1. Estimates of Smallmouth Bass consumption measured during the same intervals ranged from 0.06 to 0.33 kg·ha−1·week−1, equating to consumption of between 1% and 34% of the available Yellow Perch biomass. Given current conditions relative to Smallmouth Bass abundance and consumption dynamics and production of age-0 Yellow Perch, it does not appear that Smallmouth Bass predation acts as a singular factor limiting recruitment of age-0 Yellow Perch in our study lakes. However, future research and management initiatives should recognize that the long-term impact of Smallmouth Bass predation is not static and will likely fluctuate depending on environmental (e.g., temperature) and biotic (e.g., trends in macrophyte abundance, predator and prey population structure and abundance, and predatory fish assemblage dynamics) characteristics.

The Exceptionally High Life Expectancy of Costa Rican Nonagenarians

PubMed Central

ROSERO-BIXBY, LUIS

2008-01-01

Robust data from a voter registry show that Costa Rican nonagenarians have an exceptionally high live expectancy. Mortality at age 90 in Costa Rica is at least 14% lower than an average of 13 high-income countries. This advantage increases with age by 1% per year. Males have an additional 12% advantage. Age-90 life expectancy for males is 4.4 years, one-half year more than any other country in the world. These estimates do not use problematic data on reported ages, but ages are computed from birth dates in the Costa Rican birth-registration ledgers. Census data confirm the exceptionally high survival of elderly Costa Ricans, especially males. Comparisons with the United States and Sweden show that the Costa Rican advantage comes mostly from reduced incidence of cardiovascular diseases, coupled with a low prevalence of obesity, as the only available explanatory risk factor. Costa Rican nonagenarians are survivors of cohorts that underwent extremely harsh health conditions when young, and their advantage might be just a heterogeneity in frailty effect that might disappear in more recent cohorts. The availability of reliable estimates for the oldest-old in low-income populations is extremely rare. These results may enlighten the debate over how harsh early-life health conditions affect older-age mortality. PMID:18939667

[Assess of patients' functional condition with rheumatoid arthritis before and after physical therapy treatment].

PubMed

Krawczyk-Wasielewska, Agnieszka; Kuncewicz, Elzbieta; Sobieska, Magdalena; Samborski, Włodzimierz

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of duration of disease and age on the functional condition of patients and also healing effectiveness in different duration of disease and age. The study involved 31 patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 40-70 years, with duration of disease 5-20 years. In this group was used following physical therapy technique: cryotherapy, ultrasound therapy, laser therapy, electrical stimulation TENS, iontophoresis, diadynamic and magnetic therapy. Before and after the treatment motor capacity was estimated using Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). The presented results indicate improvement of measured parameters and increasement of patients independence after therapy, especially with duration of disease 5-10 years aged 60-70 years. Susceptibility of anti pain treatment using physical therapy increase with increasing duration of disease. Therapy influence on functional condition of patient decreasing with duration of disease.

Influence of fruit age of the Brazilian Green Dwarf coconut on the relationship between Aceria guerreronis population density and percentage of fruit damage.

PubMed

Sousa, André Silva Guimarães; Argolo, Poliane Sá; Gondim, Manoel Guedes Correa; de Moraes, Gilberto José; Oliveira, Anibal Ramadan

2017-08-01

The coconut mite, Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae), is one of the main coconut pests in the American, African and parts of the Asian continents, reaching densities of several thousand mites per fruit. Diagrammatic scales have been developed to standardize the estimation of the population densities of A. guerreronis according to the estimated percentage of damage, but these have not taken into account the possible effect of fruit age, although previous studies have already reported the variation in mite numbers with fruit age. The objective of this study was to re-construct the relation between damage and mite density at different fruit ages collected in an urban coconut plantation containing the green dwarf variety ranging from the beginning to nearly the end of the infestation, as regularly seen under field conditions in northeast Brazil, in order to improve future estimates with diagrammatic scales. The percentage of damage was estimated with two diagrammatic scales on a total of 470 fruits from 1 to 5 months old, from a field at Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil, determining the respective number of mites on each fruit. The results suggested that in estimates with diagrammatic scales: (1) fruit age has a major effect on the estimation of A. guerreronis densities, (2) fruits of different ages should be analyzed separately, and (3) regular evaluation of infestation levels should be done preferably on fruits of about 3-4 months old, which show the highest densities.

Age estimation using tooth cementum annulation.

PubMed

Wittwer-Backofen, Ursula

2012-01-01

In Forensic Anthropology age diagnosis of unidentified bodies significantly helps in the identification process. Among the set of established aging methods in anthropology tooth cementum annulation (TCA) is increasingly used due to its narrow error range which can reach 5 years of age in adult individuals at best. The rhythm of cementum appositions of seasonally different density provides a principal mechanism on which TCA is based. Using histological preparation techniques for hard tissues, transversal tooth root sections are produced which can be analyzed in transmitted light microscopy. Even though no standard TCA preparation protocol exists, several methodological validation studies recommend specific treatments depending on individual conditions of the teeth. Individual age is estimated by adding mean tooth eruption age to the number of microscopically detected dark layers which are separated by bright layers and stand for 1 year of age each. To assure a high reliability of the method, TCA age diagnosis has to be based on several teeth of one individual if possible and needs to be supported by different techniques in forensic cases.

Conditional survival of pediatric, adolescent, and young adult soft tissue sarcoma and bone tumor patients.

PubMed

Ou, Judy Y; Spraker-Perlman, Holly; Dietz, Andrew C; Smits-Seemann, Rochelle R; Kaul, Sapna; Kirchhoff, Anne C

2017-10-01

Survival estimates for soft tissue sarcomas (STS) and malignant bone tumors (BT) diagnosed in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult patients are not easily available. We present survival estimates based on a patient having survived a defined period of time (conditional survival). Conditional survival estimates for the short-term were calculated for patients from diagnosis to the first five years after diagnosis and for patients surviving in the long-term (up to 20 years after diagnosis). We identified 703 patients who were diagnosed with a STS or BT at age ≤25 years from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2012 at a large pediatric oncology center in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. We obtained cancer type, age at diagnosis, primary site, and demographic data from medical records, and vital status through the National Death Index. Cancer stage was available for a subset of the cohort through the Utah Cancer Registry. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, calculated survival estimates for all analyses. Short-term survival improves over time for both sarcomas. Short-term survival for STS from diagnosis (Year 0) did not differ by sex, but short-term survival starting from 1-year post diagnosis was significantly worse for male patients (Survival probability 1-year post-diagnosis [SP1]:77% [95% CI:71-83]) than female patients (SP1:86% [81-92]). Survival for patients who were diagnosed at age ≤10 years (Survival probability at diagnosis [SP0]:85% [79-91]) compared to diagnosis at ages 16-25 years (SP0:67% [59-75]) was significantly better at all time-points from diagnosis to 5-years post-diagnosis. Survival for axial sites (SP0:69% [63-75]) compared to extremities (SP0:84% [79-90]) was significantly worse from diagnosis to 1-year post-diagnosis. Survival for axial BT (SP0: 64% [54-74] was significantly worse than BT in the extremities (SP0:73% [68-79]) from diagnosis to 3-years post diagnosis. Relapsed patients of both sarcoma types had significantly worse short-term survival than non-relapsed patients. Long-term survival for STS in this cohort is 65% at diagnosis, and improves to 86% 5-years post-diagnosis. BT survival improves from 51% at diagnosis to 78% at 5-years post-diagnosis. Conditional survival for short- and long-term STS and BT improve as time from diagnosis increases. Short-term survival was significantly affected by patients' sex, age at diagnosis, cancer site, and relapse status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of 12-Week Physical Activity Interventions on TMS Measures of Cortical Network Inhibition and Upper Extremity Motor Performance in Older Adults—A Feasibility Study

PubMed Central

McGregor, Keith M.; Crosson, Bruce; Mammino, Kevin; Omar, Javier; García, Paul S.; Nocera, Joe R.

2018-01-01

Objective: Data from previous cross-sectional studies have shown that an increased level of physical fitness is associated with improved motor dexterity across the lifespan. In addition, physical fitness is positively associated with increased laterality of cortical function during unimanual tasks; indicating that sedentary aging is associated with a loss of interhemispheric inhibition affecting motor performance. The present study employed exercise interventions in previously sedentary older adults to compare motor dexterity and measure of interhemispheric inhibition using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) after the interventions. Methods: Twenty-one community-dwelling, reportedly sedentary older adults were recruited, randomized and enrolled to a 12-week aerobic exercise group or a 12-week non-aerobic exercise balance condition. The aerobic condition was comprised of an interval-based cycling “spin” activity, while the non-aerobic “balance” exercise condition involved balance and stretching activities. Participants completed upper extremity dexterity batteries and estimates of VO2max in addition to undergoing single (ipsilateral silent period—iSP) and paired-pulse interhemispheric inhibition (ppIHI) in separate assessment sessions before and after study interventions. After each intervention during which heart rate was continuously recorded to measure exertion level (load), participants crossed over into the alternate arm of the study for an additional 12-week intervention period in an AB/BA design with no washout period. Results: After the interventions, regardless of intervention order, participants in the aerobic spin condition showed higher estimated VO2max levels after the 12-week intervention as compared to estimated VO2max in the non-aerobic balance intervention. After controlling for carryover effects due to the study design, participants in the spin condition showed longer iSP duration than the balance condition. Heart rate load was more strongly correlated with silent period duration after the Spin condition than estimated VO2. Conclusions: Aging-related changes in cortical inhibition may be influenced by 12-week physical activity interventions when assessed with the iSP. Although inhibitory signaling is mediates both ppIHI and iSP measures each TMS modality likely employs distinct inhibitory networks, potentially differentially affected by aging. Changes in inhibitory function after physical activity interventions may be associated with improved dexterity and motor control at least as evidence from this feasibility study show. PMID:29354049

Varieties of quantity estimation in children.

PubMed

Sella, Francesco; Berteletti, Ilaria; Lucangeli, Daniela; Zorzi, Marco

2015-06-01

In the number-to-position task, with increasing age and numerical expertise, children's pattern of estimates shifts from a biased (nonlinear) to a formal (linear) mapping. This widely replicated finding concerns symbolic numbers, whereas less is known about other types of quantity estimation. In Experiment 1, Preschool, Grade 1, and Grade 3 children were asked to map continuous quantities, discrete nonsymbolic quantities (numerosities), and symbolic (Arabic) numbers onto a visual line. Numerical quantity was matched for the symbolic and discrete nonsymbolic conditions, whereas cumulative surface area was matched for the continuous and discrete quantity conditions. Crucially, in the discrete condition children's estimation could rely either on the cumulative area or numerosity. All children showed a linear mapping for continuous quantities, whereas a developmental shift from a logarithmic to a linear mapping was observed for both nonsymbolic and symbolic numerical quantities. Analyses on individual estimates suggested the presence of two distinct strategies in estimating discrete nonsymbolic quantities: one based on numerosity and the other based on spatial extent. In Experiment 2, a non-spatial continuous quantity (shades of gray) and new discrete nonsymbolic conditions were added to the set used in Experiment 1. Results confirmed the linear patterns for the continuous tasks, as well as the presence of a subset of children relying on numerosity for the discrete nonsymbolic numerosity conditions despite the availability of continuous visual cues. Overall, our findings demonstrate that estimation of numerical and non-numerical quantities is based on different processing strategies and follow different developmental trajectories. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Conditional survival estimates improve over time for patients with advanced melanoma: results from a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Xing, Yan; Chang, George J; Hu, Chung-Yuan; Askew, Robert L; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Lee, Jeffrey E; Mansfield, Paul F; Lucci, Anthony; Cormier, Janice N

2010-05-01

Conditional survival (CS) has emerged as a clinically relevant measure of prognosis for cancer survivors. The objective of this analysis was to provide melanoma-specific CS estimates to help clinicians promote more informed patient decision making. Patients with melanoma and at least 5 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (1988-2000). By using the methods of Kaplan and Meier, stage-specific, 5-year CS estimates were independently calculated for survivors for each year after diagnosis. Stage-specific multivariate Cox regression models including baseline survivor functions were used to calculate adjusted melanoma-specific CS for different subgroups of patients further stratified by age, gender, race, marital status, anatomic tumor location, and tumor histology. Five-year CS estimates for patients with stage I disease remained constant at 97% annually, while for patients with stages II, III, and IV disease, 5-year CS estimates from time 0 (diagnosis) to 5 years improved from 72% to 86%, 51% to 87%, and 19% to 84%, respectively. Multivariate CS analysis revealed that differences in stages II through IV CS based on age, gender, and race decreased over time. Five-year melanoma-specific CS estimates improve dramatically over time for survivors with advanced stages of disease. These prognostic data are critical to patients for both treatment and nontreatment related life decisions. (c) 2010 American Cancer Society.

The double burden of undernutrition and excess body weight in Mexico.

PubMed

Kroker-Lobos, Maria F; Pedroza-Tobías, Andrea; Pedraza, Lilia S; Rivera, Juan A

2014-12-01

In Mexico, stunting and anemia have declined but are still high in some regions and subpopulations, whereas overweight and obesity have increased at alarming rates in all age and socioeconomic groups. The objective was to describe the coexistence of stunting, anemia, and overweight and obesity at the national, household, and individual levels. We estimated national prevalences of and trends for stunting, anemia, and overweight and obesity in children aged <5 y and in school-aged children (5-11 y old) and anemia and overweight and obesity in women aged 20-49 y by using the National Health and Nutrition Surveys conducted in 1988, 1999, 2006, and 2012. With the use of the most recent data (2012), the double burden of malnutrition at the household level was estimated and defined as the coexistence of stunting in children aged <5 y and overweight or obesity in the mother. At the individual level, double burden was defined as concurrent stunting and overweight and obesity in children aged 5-11 y and concurrent anemia and overweight or obesity in children aged 5-11 y and in women. We also tested if the coexistence of the conditions corresponded to expected values, under the assumption of independent distributions of each condition. At the household level, the prevalence of concurrent stunting in children aged <5 y and overweight and obesity in mothers was 8.4%; at the individual level, prevalences were 1% for stunting and overweight or obesity and 2.9% for anemia and overweight or obesity in children aged 5-11 y and 7.6% for anemia and overweight or obesity in women. At the household and individual levels in children aged 5-11 y, prevalences of double burden were significantly lower than expected, whereas anemia and the prevalence of overweight or obesity in women were not different from that expected. Although some prevalences of double burden were lower than expected, assuming independent distributions of the 2 conditions, the coexistence of stunting, overweight or obesity, and anemia at the national, household, and intraindividual levels in Mexico calls for policies and programs to prevent the 3 conditions. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Portugal: Prevalence, Clinical Characterization, and Medical Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oliveira, Guiomar; Ataide, Assuncao; Marques, Carla; Miguel, Teresa S.; Coutinho, Ana Margarida; Mota-Vieira, Luisa; Goncalves, Esmeralda; Lopes, Nazare Mendes; Rodrigues, Vitor; Carmona da Mota, Henrique; Vicente, Astrid Moura

2007-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) and identify its clinical characterization, and medical conditions in a paediatric population in Portugal. A school survey was conducted in elementary schools, targeting 332 808 school-aged children in the mainland and 10 910 in the Azores islands.…

Augmented reality cues to assist older drivers with gap estimation for left-turns.

PubMed

Rusch, Michelle L; Schall, Mark C; Lee, John D; Dawson, Jeffrey D; Rizzo, Matthew

2014-10-01

The objective of this study was to assess the effects of augmented reality (AR) cues designed to assist middle-aged and older drivers with a range of UFOV impairments, judging when to make left-turns across oncoming traffic. Previous studies have shown that AR cues can help middle-aged and older drivers respond to potential roadside hazards by increasing hazard detection without interfering with other driving tasks. Intersections pose a critical challenge for cognitively impaired drivers, prone to misjudge time-to-contact with oncoming traffic. We investigated whether AR cues improve or interfere with hazard perception in left-turns across oncoming traffic for drivers with age-related cognitive decline. Sixty-four middle-aged and older drivers with a range of UFOV impairment judged when it would be safe to turn left across oncoming traffic approaching the driver from the opposite direction in a rural stop-sign controlled intersection scenario implemented in a static base driving simulator. Outcome measures used to evaluate the effectiveness of AR cueing included: Time-to-Contact (TTC), Gap Time Variation (GTV), Response Rate, and Gap Response Variation (GRV). All drivers estimated TTCs were shorter in cued than in uncued conditions. In addition, drivers responded more often in cued conditions than in uncued conditions and GRV decreased for all drivers in scenarios that contained AR cues. For both TTC and response rate, drivers also appeared to adjust their behavior to be consistent with the cues, especially drivers with the poorest UFOV scores (matching their behavior to be close to middle-aged drivers). Driver ratings indicated that cueing was not considered to be distracting. Further, various conditions of reliability (e.g., 15% miss rate) did not appear to affect performance or driver ratings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AUGMENTED REALITY CUES TO ASSIST OLDER DRIVERS WITH GAP ESTIMATION FOR LEFT-TURNS

PubMed Central

Rusch, Michelle L.; Schall, Mark C.; Lee, John D.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.; Rizzo, Matthew

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess the effects of augmented reality (AR) cues designed to assist middle-aged and older drivers with a range of UFOV impairments, judging when to make left-turns across oncoming traffic. Previous studies have shown that AR cues can help middle-aged and older drivers respond to potential roadside hazards by increasing hazard detection without interfering with other driving tasks. Intersections pose a critical challenge for cognitively impaired drivers, prone to misjudge time-to-contact with oncoming traffic. We investigated whether AR cues improve or interfere with hazard perception in left-turns across oncoming traffic for drivers with age-related cognitive decline. Sixty-four middle-aged and older drivers with a range of UFOV impairment judged when it would be safe to turn left across oncoming traffic approaching the driver from the opposite direction in a rural stop-sign controlled intersection scenario implemented in a static base driving simulator. Outcome measures used to evaluate the effectiveness of AR cueing included: Time-to-Contact (TTC), Gap Time Variation (GTV), Response Rate, and Gap Response Variation (GRV). All drivers estimated TTCs were shorter in cued than in uncued conditions. In addition, drivers responded more often in cued conditions than in uncued conditions and GRV decreased for all drivers in scenarios that contained AR cues. For both TTC and response rate, drivers also appeared to adjust their behavior to be consistent with the cues, especially drivers with the poorest UFOV scores (matching their behavior to be close to middle-aged drivers). Driver ratings indicated that cueing was not considered to be distracting. Further, various conditions of reliability (e.g., 15% miss rate) did not appear to affect performance or driver ratings. PMID:24950128

Did the Great Recession affect mortality rates in the metropolitan United States? Effects on mortality by age, gender and cause of death.

PubMed

Strumpf, Erin C; Charters, Thomas J; Harper, Sam; Nandi, Arijit

2017-09-01

Mortality rates generally decline during economic recessions in high-income countries, however gaps remain in our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This study estimates the impacts of increases in unemployment rates on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality across U.S. metropolitan regions during the Great Recession. We estimate the effects of economic conditions during the recent and severe recessionary period on mortality, including differences by age and gender subgroups, using fixed effects regression models. We identify a plausibly causal effect by isolating the impacts of within-metropolitan area changes in unemployment rates and controlling for common temporal trends. We aggregated vital statistics, population, and unemployment data at the area-month-year-age-gender-race level, yielding 527,040 observations across 366 metropolitan areas, 2005-2010. We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the metropolitan area unemployment rate was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality of 3.95 deaths per 100,000 person years (95%CI -6.80 to -1.10), or 0.5%. Estimated reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality contributed 60% of the overall effect and were more pronounced among women. Motor vehicle accident mortality declined with unemployment increases, especially for men and those under age 65, as did legal intervention and homicide mortality, particularly for men and adults ages 25-64. We find suggestive evidence that increases in metropolitan area unemployment increased accidental drug poisoning deaths for both men and women ages 25-64. Our finding that all-cause mortality decreased during the Great Recession is consistent with previous studies. Some categories of cause-specific mortality, notably cardiovascular disease, also follow this pattern, and are more pronounced for certain gender and age groups. Our study also suggests that the recent recession contributed to the growth in deaths from overdoses of prescription drugs in working-age adults in metropolitan areas. Additional research investigating the mechanisms underlying the health consequences of macroeconomic conditions is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acceleration of leukocytes' epigenetic age as an early tumor and sex-specific marker of breast and colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Durso, Danielle Fernandes; Bacalini, Maria Giulia; Sala, Claudia; Pirazzini, Chiara; Marasco, Elena; Bonafé, Massimiliano; do Valle, Ítalo Faria; Gentilini, Davide; Castellani, Gastone; Faria, Ana Maria Caetano; Franceschi, Claudio; Garagnani, Paolo; Nardini, Christine

2017-04-04

Changes in blood epigenetic age have been associated with several pathological conditions and have recently been described to anticipate cancer development. In this work, we analyze a publicly available leukocytes methylation dataset to evaluate the relation between DNA methylation age and the prospective development of specific types of cancer. We calculated DNA methylation age acceleration using five state-of-the-art estimators (three multi-site: Horvath, Hannum, Weidner; and two CpG specific: ELOV2 and FHL2) in a cohort including 845 subjects from the EPIC-Italy project and we compared 424 samples that remained cancer-free over the approximately ten years of follow-up with 235 and 166 subjects who developed breast and colorectal cancer, respectively. We show that the epigenetic age estimated from blood DNA methylation data is statistically significantly associated to future breast and male colorectal cancer development. These results are corroborated by survival analysis that shows significant association between age acceleration and cancer incidence suggesting that the chance of developing age-related diseases may be predicted by circulating epigenetic markers, with a dependence upon tumor type, sex and age estimator. These are encouraging results towards the non-invasive and perspective usage of epigenetic biomarkers.

A fully nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data

PubMed Central

Gorfine, Malka; Bordo, Nadia; Hsu, Li

2017-01-01

Summary Consider a popular case–control family study where individuals with a disease under study (case probands) and individuals who do not have the disease (control probands) are randomly sampled from a well-defined population. Possibly right-censored age at onset and disease status are observed for both probands and their relatives. For example, case probands are men diagnosed with prostate cancer, control probands are men free of prostate cancer, and the prostate cancer history of the fathers of the probands is also collected. Inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior lead to correlation among the outcomes within a family. In this article, a novel nonparametric estimator of the marginal survival function is provided. The estimator is defined in the presence of intra-cluster dependence, and is based on consistent smoothed kernel estimators of conditional survival functions. By simulation, it is shown that the proposed estimator performs very well in terms of bias. The utility of the estimator is illustrated by the analysis of case–control family data of early onset prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first article that provides a fully nonparametric marginal survival estimator based on case–control clustered age-at-onset data. PMID:27436674

Aircraft Engine Sensor/Actuator/Component Fault Diagnosis Using a Bank of Kalman Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

In this report, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) system which utilizes a bank of Kalman filters is developed for aircraft engine sensor and actuator FDI in conjunction with the detection of component faults. This FDI approach uses multiple Kalman filters, each of which is designed based on a specific hypothesis for detecting a specific sensor or actuator fault. In the event that a fault does occur, all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis will produce large estimation errors, from which a specific fault is isolated. In the meantime, a set of parameters that indicate engine component performance is estimated for the detection of abrupt degradation. The performance of the FDI system is evaluated against a nonlinear engine simulation for various engine faults at cruise operating conditions. In order to mimic the real engine environment, the nonlinear simulation is executed not only at the nominal, or healthy, condition but also at aged conditions. When the FDI system designed at the healthy condition is applied to an aged engine, the effectiveness of the FDI system is impacted by the mismatch in the engine health condition. Depending on its severity, this mismatch can cause the FDI system to generate incorrect diagnostic results, such as false alarms and missed detections. To partially recover the nominal performance, two approaches, which incorporate information regarding the engine s aging condition in the FDI system, will be discussed and evaluated. The results indicate that the proposed FDI system is promising for reliable diagnostics of aircraft engines.

Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

PubMed Central

Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

2015-01-01

Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracted from rumbles recorded under field conditions in a National Park in South Africa. Statistical models reached up to 70 % correct classification to four age groups (infants, calves, juveniles, adults) and 95 % correct classification when categorising into two groups (infants/calves lumped into one group versus adults). The models revealed that parameters representing absolute frequency values have the most discriminative power. Comparable classification results were obtained by fully automated classification of rumbles by high-dimensional features that represent the entire spectral envelope, such as MFCC (75 % correct classification) and GFCC (74 % correct classification). The reported results and methods provide the scientific foundation for a future system that could potentially automatically estimate the demography of an acoustically monitored elephant group or population. PMID:25821348

Intraindividual variability in vigilance performance: does degrading visual stimuli mimic age-related "neural noise"?

PubMed

MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Bunce, David

2006-07-01

Intraindividual performance variability, or inconsistency, has been shown to predict neurological status, physiological functioning, and age differences and declines in cognition. However, potential moderating factors of inconsistency are not well understood. The present investigation examined whether inconsistency in vigilance response latencies varied as a function of time-on-task and task demands by degrading visual stimuli in three separate conditions (10%, 20%, and 30%). Participants were 24 younger women aged 21 to 30 years (M = 24.04, SD = 2.51) and 23 older women aged 61 to 83 years (M = 68.70, SD = 6.38). A measure of within-person inconsistency, the intraindividual standard deviation (ISD), was computed for each individual across reaction time (RT) trials (3 blocks of 45 event trials) for each condition of the vigilance task. Greater inconsistency was observed with increasing stimulus degradation and age, even after controlling for group differences in mean RTs and physical condition. Further, older adults were more inconsistent than younger adults for similar degradation conditions, with ISD scores for younger adults in the 30% condition approximating estimates observed for older adults in the 10% condition. Finally, a measure of perceptual sensitivity shared increasing negative associations with ISDs, with this association further modulated as a function of age but to a lesser degree by degradation condition. Results support current hypotheses suggesting that inconsistency serves as a marker of neurological integrity and are discussed in terms of potential underlying mechanisms.

Recharge and groundwater models: An overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.

2002-01-01

Recharge is a fundamental component of groundwater systems, and in groundwater-modeling exercises recharge is either measured and specified or estimated during model calibration. The most appropriate way to represent recharge in a groundwater model depends upon both physical factors and study objectives. Where the water table is close to the land surface, as in humid climates or regions with low topographic relief, a constant-head boundary condition is used. Conversely, where the water table is relatively deep, as in drier climates or regions with high relief, a specified-flux boundary condition is used. In most modeling applications, mixed-type conditions are more effective, or a combination of the different types can be used. The relative distribution of recharge can be estimated from water-level data only, but flux observations must be incorporated in order to estimate rates of recharge. Flux measurements are based on either Darcian velocities (e.g., stream base-flow) or seepage velocities (e.g., groundwater age). In order to estimate the effective porosity independently, both types of flux measurements must be available. Recharge is often estimated more efficiently when automated inverse techniques are used. Other important applications are the delineation of areas contributing recharge to wells and the estimation of paleorecharge rates using carbon-14.

Linking ground-water age and chemistry data along flow paths: Implications for trends and transformations of nitrate and pesticides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, A.J.; Saad, D.A.; Burow, K.R.; Frick, E.A.; Puckett, L.J.; Barbash, J.E.

2007-01-01

Tracer-based ground-water ages, along with the concentrations of pesticides, nitrogen species, and other redox-active constituents, were used to evaluate the trends and transformations of agricultural chemicals along flow paths in diverse hydrogeologic settings. A range of conditions affecting the transformation of nitrate and pesticides (e.g., thickness of unsaturated zone, redox conditions) was examined at study sites in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and California. Deethylatrazine (DEA), a transformation product of atrazine, was typically present at concentrations higher than those of atrazine at study sites with thick unsaturated zones but not at sites with thin unsaturated zones. Furthermore, the fraction of atrazine plus DEA that was present as DEA did not increase as a function of ground-water age. These findings suggest that atrazine degradation occurs primarily in the unsaturated zone with little or no degradation in the saturated zone. Similar observations were also made for metolachlor and alachlor. The fraction of the initial nitrate concentration found as excess N2 (N2 derived from denitrification) increased with ground-water age only at the North Carolina site, where oxic conditions were generally limited to the top 5??m of saturated thickness. Historical trends in fluxes to ground water were evaluated by relating the times of recharge of ground-water samples, estimated using chlorofluorocarbon concentrations, with concentrations of the parent compound at the time of recharge, estimated by summing the molar concentrations of the parent compound and its transformation products in the age-dated sample. Using this approach, nitrate concentrations were estimated to have increased markedly from 1960 to the present at all study sites. Trends in concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, and their degradates were related to the timing of introduction and use of these compounds. Degradates, and to a lesser extent parent compounds, were detected in ground water dating back to the time these compounds were introduced.

Psychiatric Disorders among Children with Cerebral Palsy at School Starting Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bjorgaas, H. M.; Hysing, M.; Elgen, I.

2012-01-01

The aim of the present population study was to estimate the prevalence of psychiatric disorders in children with cerebral palsy (CP), as well as the impact of comorbid conditions. A cohort of children with CP born 2001-2003, and living in the Western Health Region of Norway were evaluated at school starting age. Parents were interviewed with the…

Skin Conditions of Youths 12-17, United States. Vital and Health Statistics; Series 11, Number 157.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Jean; Ludford, Jacqueline

This report of the National Center for Health Statistics presents national estimates of the prevalence of facial acne and other skin lesions among noninstitutionalized youths aged 12-17 years by age, race, sex, geographic region, population size of place of residence, family income, education of parent, overall health, indications of stress,…

Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

PubMed

Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

2015-05-18

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

Precipitation-Induced Changes in Microstrain and Its Relation with Hardness and Tempering Parameter in 17-4 PH Stainless Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahadevan, S.; Manojkumar, R.; Jayakumar, T.; Das, C. R.; Rao, B. P. C.

2016-06-01

17-4 PH (precipitation hardening) stainless steel is a soft martensitic stainless steel strengthened by aging at appropriate temperature for sufficient duration. Precipitation of copper particles in the martensitic matrix during aging causes coherency strains which improves the mechanical properties, namely hardness and strength of the matrix. The contributions to X-ray diffraction (XRD) profile broadening due to coherency strains caused by precipitation and crystallite size changes due to aging are separated and quantified using the modified Williamson-Hall approach. The estimated normalized mean square strain and crystallite size are used to explain the observed changes in hardness. Microstructural changes observed in secondary electron images are in qualitative agreement with crystallite size changes estimated from XRD profile analysis. The precipitation kinetics in the age-hardening regime and overaged regime are studied from hardness changes and they follow the Avrami kinetics and Wilson's model, respectively. In overaged condition, the hardness changes are linearly correlated to the tempering parameter (also known as Larson-Miller parameter). Similar linear variation is observed between the normalized mean square strain (determined from XRD line profile analysis) and the tempering parameter, in the incoherent regime which is beyond peak microstrain conditions.

Reference values and equations reference of balance for children of 8 to 12 years.

PubMed

Libardoni, Thiele de Cássia; Silveira, Carolina Buzzi da; Sinhorim, Larissa Milani Brognoli; Oliveira, Anamaria Siriani de; Santos, Márcio José Dos; Santos, Gilmar Moraes

2018-02-01

There are still no normative data in balance sway for school-age children in Brazil. We aimed to establish the reference ranges for balance scores and to develop prediction equations for estimation of balance scores in children aged 8 to 12 years old. The study included 165 healthy children (83 boys and 82 girls; age, 8-12 years) recruited from a public school in the city of Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. We used the Sensory Organization Test to assess the balance scores and both a digital scale and a stadiometer to measure the anthropometric variables. We tested a stepwise multiple-regression model with sex, height, weight, and mid-thigh circumference of the dominant leg as predictors of the balance score. For all experimental conditions, girls' age accounted for over 85% of the variability in balance scores; while, boys' age accounted only 55% of the variability in balance scores. Therefore, balance scores increase with age for boys and girls. This study described the ranges of age- and sex-specific normative values for balance scores in children during 6 different testing conditions established by the sensory organization test. We confirmed that age was the predictor that best explained the variability in balance scores in children between 8 and 12 years old. This study stimulates a new and more comprehensive study to estimate balance scores from prediction equations for overall Brazilian pediatric population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Age-related variation in EEG complexity to photic stimulation: A multiscale entropy analysis

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Tetsuya; Cho, Raymond Y.; Murata, Tetsuhito; Mizuno, Tomoyuki; Kikuchi, Mitsuru; Mizukami, Kimiko; Kosaka, Hirotaka; Takahashi, Koichi; Wada, Yuji

2010-01-01

Objective This study was intended to examine variations in electroencephalographic (EEG) complexity in response to photic stimulation (PS) during aging to test the hypothesis that the aging process reduces physiologic complexity and functional responsiveness. Methods Multiscale entropy (MSE), an estimate of time-series signal complexity associated with long-range temporal correlation, is used as a recently proposed method for quantifying EEG complexity with multiple coarse-grained sequences. We recorded EEG in 13 healthy elderly subjects and 12 healthy young subjects during pre-PS and post-PS conditions and estimated their respective MSE values. Results For the pre-PS condition, no significant complexity difference was found between the groups. However, a significant MSE change (complexity increase) was found post-PS only in young subjects, thereby revealing a power-law scaling property, which means long-range temporal correlation. Conclusions Enhancement of long-range temporal correlation in young subjects after PS might reflect a cortical response to stimuli, which was absent in elderly subjects. These results are consistent with the general “loss of complexity/diminished functional response to stimuli” theory of aging. Significance Our findings demonstrate that application of MSE analysis to EEG is a powerful approach for studying age-related changes in brain function. PMID:19231279

Multiple Chronic Conditions and Healthcare Costs among Adults

PubMed Central

Sambamoorthi, Usha; Tan, Xi; Deb, Arijita

2015-01-01

The prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCC) is increasing among individuals of all ages. MCC are associated with poor health outcomes. The presence of MCC has profound healthcare utilization and cost implications for public and private insurance payers, individuals, and families. Investigators have used a variety of definitions for MCC to evaluate costs associated with MCC. The objective of this article is to examine the current literature in estimating excess costs associated with MCC among adults. The discussion highlights some of the theoretical and technical merits of various MCC definitions and models used to estimate the excess costs associated with MCC. PMID:26400220

Modeling post-fledging survival of lark buntings in response to ecological and biological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2006-01-01

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages ≤3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages ≤3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 ± 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 ± 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.

Associations between multimorbidity and additional burden for working-age adults with specific forms of musculoskeletal conditions: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Lowe, Dianne B; Taylor, Michael J; Hill, Sophie J

2017-04-04

Multiple health conditions are increasingly a problem for adults with musculoskeletal conditions. However, multimorbidity research has focused primarily on the elderly and those with a limited subset of musculoskeletal disorders. We sought to determine whether associations between multimorbidity and additional burden differ with specific forms of musculoskeletal conditions among working-age adults. Data were sourced from a nationally representative Australian survey. Specific musculoskeletal conditions examined were osteoarthritis; inflammatory arthritis; other forms of arthritis or arthropathies; musculoskeletal conditions not elsewhere specified; gout; back pain; soft tissue disorders; or osteoporosis. Multimorbidity was defined as the additional presence of one or more of the Australian National Health Priority Area conditions. Burden was assessed by self-reported measures of: (i) self-rated health (ii) musculoskeletal-related healthcare and medicines utilisation and, (iii) general healthcare utilisation. Associations between multimorbidity and additional health or healthcare utilisation burden among working-age adults (aged 18 - 64 years of age) with specific musculoskeletal conditions were estimated using logistic regression, adjusting for confounders. Interaction terms were fitted to identify whether there were specific musculoskeletal conditions where multimorbidity was more strongly associated with poorer health or greater healthcare utilisation than in the remaining musculoskeletal group. Among working-age adults, for each of the specified musculoskeletal conditions, multimorbidity was associated with similar, increased likelihood of additional self-rated health burden and certain types of healthcare utilisation. While there were differences in the relationships between multimorbidity and burden for each of the specific musculoskeletal conditions, no one specific musculoskeletal condition appeared to be consistently associated with greater additional health burden in the presence of multimorbidity across the majority of self-rated health burden and healthcare use measures. For working-age people with any musculoskeletal conditions examined here, multimorbidity increases self-reported health and healthcare utilisation burden. As no one musculoskeletal condition appears consistently worse off in the presence of multimorbidity, there is a need to better understand and identify strategies that acknowledge and address the additional burden of concomitant conditions for working-age adults with a range of musculoskeletal conditions.

Surveillance for Certain Health Behaviors and Conditions Among States and Selected Local Areas — Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, United States, 2013 and 2014

PubMed Central

Gamble, Sonya; Xu, Fang; Chowdhury, Pranesh P.; Pierannunzi, Carol; Flegel, David; Garvin, William; Town, Machell

2017-01-01

Problem Chronic diseases and conditions (e.g., heart diseases, stroke, arthritis, and diabetes) are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the United States. These conditions are costly to the U.S. economy, yet they are often preventable or controllable. Behavioral risk factors (e.g., excessive alcohol consumption, tobacco use, poor diet, frequent mental distress, and insufficient sleep) are linked to the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Adopting positive health behaviors (e.g., staying physically active, quitting tobacco use, obtaining routine physical checkups, and checking blood pressure and cholesterol levels) can reduce morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases and conditions. Monitoring the health risk behaviors, chronic diseases and conditions, access to health care, and use of preventive health services at multilevel public health points (states, territories, and metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas [MMSA]) can provide important information for development and evaluation of health intervention programs. Reporting Period 2013 and 2014. Description of the System The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is an ongoing, state-based, random-digit–dialed telephone survey of noninstitutionalized adults aged ≥18 years residing in the United States. BRFSS collects data on health risk behaviors, chronic diseases and conditions, access to health care, and use of preventive health services and practices related to the leading causes of death and disability in the United States and participating territories. This is the first BRFSS report to include age-adjusted prevalence estimates. For 2013 and 2014, these age-adjusted prevalence estimates are presented for all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Guam, and selected MMSA. Results Age-adjusted prevalence estimates of health status indicators, health care access and preventive practices, health risk behaviors, chronic diseases and conditions, and cardiovascular conditions vary by state, territory, and MMSA. Each set of proportions presented refers to the range of age-adjusted prevalence estimates of selected BRFSS measures as reported by survey respondents. The following are estimates for 2013. Adults reporting frequent mental distress: 7.7%–15.2% in states and territories and 6.3%–19.4% in MMSA. Adults with inadequate sleep: 27.6%–49.2% in states and territories and 26.5%–44.4% in MMSA. Adults aged 18–64 years having health care coverage: 66.9%–92.4% in states and territories and 60.5%–97.6% in MMSA. Adults identifying as current cigarette smokers: 10.1%–28.8% in states and territories and 6.1%–33.6% in MMSA. Adults reporting binge drinking during the past month: 10.5%–25.2% in states and territories and 7.2%–25.3% in MMSA. Adults with obesity: 21.0%–35.2% in states and territories and 12.1%–37.1% in MMSA. Adults aged ≥45 years with some form of arthritis: 30.6%–51.0% in states and territories and 27.6%–52.4% in MMSA. Adults aged ≥45 years who have had coronary heart disease: 7.4%–17.5% in states and territories and 6.2%–20.9% in MMSA. Adults aged ≥45 years who have had a stroke: 3.1%–7.5% in states and territories and 2.3%–9.4% in MMSA. Adults with high blood pressure: 25.2%–40.1% in states and territories and 22.2%–42.2% in MMSA. Adults with high blood cholesterol: 28.8%–38.4% in states and territories and 26.3%–39.6% in MMSA. The following are estimates for 2014. Adults reporting frequent physical distress: 7.8%–16.0% in states and territories and 6.2%–18.5% in MMSA. Women aged 21–65 years who had a Papanicolaou test during the past 3 years: 67.7%–87.8% in states and territories and 68.0%–94.3% in MMSA. Adults aged 50–75 years who received colorectal cancer screening on the basis of the 2008 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation: 42.8%–76.7% in states and territories and 49.1%–79.6% in MMSA. Adults with inadequate sleep: 28.4%–48.6% in states and territories and 25.4%–45.3% in MMSA. Adults reporting binge drinking during the past month: 10.7%–25.1% in states and territories and 6.7%–26.3% in MMSA. Adults aged ≥45 years who have had coronary heart disease: 8.0%–17.1% in states and territories and 7.6%–19.2% in MMSA. Adults aged ≥45 years with some form of arthritis: 31.2%–54.7% in states and territories and 28.4%–54.7% in MMSA. Adults with obesity: 21.0%–35.9% in states and territories and 19.7%–42.5% in MMSA. Interpretation Prevalence of certain chronic diseases and conditions, health risk behaviors, and use of preventive health services varies among states, territories, and MMSA. The findings of this report highlight the need for continued monitoring of health status, health care access, health behaviors, and chronic diseases and conditions at state and local levels. Public Health Action State and local health departments and agencies can continue to use BRFSS data to identify populations at risk for certain unhealthy behaviors and chronic diseases and conditions. Data also can be used to design, monitor, and evaluate public health programs at state and local levels. PMID:28910267

Age differences in the prevalence and comorbidity of DSM-IV major depressive episodes: Results from the WHO World Mental Health Survey Initiative

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Birnbaum, Howard; Shahly, Victoria; Bromet, Evelyn; Hwang, Irving; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Sampson, Nancy; Andrade, Laura Helena; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Demyttenaere, Koen; Haro, Josep Maria; Karam, Aimee N.; Kostyuchenko, Stanislav; Kovess, Viviane; Lara, Carmen; Levinson, Daphna; Matschinger, Herbert; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Browne, Mark Oakley; Ormel, Johan; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Stein, Dan J.

2011-01-01

Background Although depression appears to decrease in late life, this could be due to misattribution of depressive symptoms to physical disorders that increase in late life. Methods We investigated this issue by studying age differences in comorbidity of DSM-IV major depressive episodes (MDE) with chronic physical conditions in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) surveys, a series of community epidemiological surveys carried out in 10 developed countries (n = 51,771) and 8 developing countries (n = 37,265). MDE and other mental disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Organic exclusion rules were not used to avoid inappropriate exclusion of cases with physical comorbidity. Physical conditions were assessed with a standard chronic conditions checklist. Results Twelve-month DSM-IV/CIDI MDE was significantly less prevalent among respondents ages 65+ than younger respondents in developed but not developing countries. Prevalence of comorbid mental disorders generally either decreased or remained stable with age, while comorbidity of MDE with mental disorders generally increased with age. Prevalence of physical conditions, in comparison, generally increased with age, while comorbidity of MDE with physical conditions generally decreased with age. Depression treatment was lowest among the elderly in developed and developing countries. Conclusions The weakening associations between MDE and physical conditions with increasing age argue against the suggestion that the low estimated prevalence of MDE among the elderly is due to increased confounding with physical disorders. Future study is needed to investigate processes that might lead to a decreasing impact of physical illness on depression among the elderly. PMID:20037917

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs.

PubMed

Turner, Wendy C; Kausrud, Kyrre L; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N; Ganz, Holly H; Turnbull, Peter C B; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Getz, Wayne M

2016-06-06

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1-2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways.

Healthcare Disparities in Outcomes of a Metropolitan Congenital Heart Surgery Center: The Effect of Clinical and Socioeconomic Factors.

PubMed

Peterson, Jennifer K; Catton, Kirsti G; Setty, Shaun P

2018-04-01

The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors on congenital heart surgery outcomes. This retrospective cohort study included 234 congenital heart surgery patients from 2011 through 2015, in a racially/ethnically diverse metropolitan children's hospital. Outcomes included length of stay (LOS), age at first echocardiogram, length of mechanical ventilation, and incidence of complications. Compared to others, black children underwent their first echocardiogram at a later age (median 23 versus 2 days, p = 0.014) and were more likely to be diagnosed with congenital heart disease in the emergency room (p = 0.026). Hispanic children were more likely to have major non-cardiac congenital anomalies (p = 0.045). Increased LOS during elective admissions was associated with higher surgical complexity (STAT category 4 and 5 Estimate 3.905 days, p = 0.001), compared to STAT category 1, and number of complications (Estimate = 2.306 days per complication, p < 0.001). Increased LOS in non-elective admissions was associated with the number of complex chronic conditions (Estimate = 15.446 days, p = 0.045) and the number of complications (Estimate = 11.591 days per complication, p < 0.001). However, in multivariate analysis, race and ethnicity was not associated with increased LOS or age at first echocardiogram. In this diverse setting, race/ethnicity was not associated with increased LOS, age at first echocardiogram, length of ventilation, or complications. Surgical complexity, chronic conditions, and complications were associated with increased LOS. We discuss some interventions to reduce disparities in congenital heart surgery outcomes.

Performance of bolted closure joint elastomers under cask aging conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verst, C.; Sindelar, R.; Skidmore, E.

The bolted closure joint of a bare spent fuel cask is susceptible to age-related degradation and potential loss of confinement function under long-term storage conditions. Elastomeric seals, a component of the joint typically used to facilitate leak testing of the primary seal that includes the metallic seal and bolting, is susceptible to degradation over time by several mechanisms, principally via thermo-oxidation, stress-relaxation, and radiolytic degradation under time and temperature condition. Irradiation and thermal exposure testing and evaluation of an ethylene-propylene diene monomer (EPDM) elastomeric seal material similar to that used in the CASTOR® V/21 cask for a matrix of temperaturemore » and radiation exposure conditions relevant to the cask extended storage conditions, and development of semiempirical predictive models for loss of sealing force is in progress. A special insert was developed to allow Compressive Stress Relaxation (CSR) measurements before and after the irradiation and/or thermal exposure without unloading the elastomer. A condition of the loss of sealing force for the onset of leakage was suggested. The experimentation and modeling being performed could enable acquisition of extensive coupled aging data as well as an estimation of the timeframe when loss of sealing function under aging (temperature/radiation) conditions may occur.« less

The association between booster seat use and risk of death among motor vehicle occupants aged 4-8: a matched cohort study.

PubMed

Rice, T M; Anderson, C L; Lee, A S

2009-12-01

To estimate the effectiveness of booster seats and of seatbelts in reducing the risk of child death during traffic collisions and to examine possible effect modification by various collision and vehicle characteristics. A matched cohort study was conducted using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Death risk ratios were estimated with conditional Poisson regression, bootstrapped coefficient standard errors, and multiply imputed missing values using chained equations. Estimated death risk ratios for booster seats used with seatbelts were 0.33 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.40) for children age 4-5 years and 0.45 (0.31 to 0.63) for children aged 6-8 years (Wald test of homogeneity p<0.005). The estimated risk ratios for seatbelt used alone were similar for the two age groups, 0.37 (0.32 to 0.43) and 0.39 (0.34 to 0.44) for ages 4-5 and 6-8, respectively (Wald p = 0.61). Estimated booster seat effectiveness was significantly greater for inbound seating positions (Wald p = 0.05) and during rollovers collisions (Wald p = 0.01). Significant variability in risk ratio estimates was not observed across levels of calendar year, vehicle model year, vehicle type, or land use. Seatbelts, used with or without booster seats, are highly effective in preventing death among motor vehicle occupants aged 4-8 years. Booster seats do not appear to improve the performance of seatbelts with respect to preventing death (risk ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.08, comparing seatbelts with boosters to seatbelts alone), but because several studies have found that booster seats reduce non-fatal injury severity, clinicians and injury prevention specialists should continue to recommend the use of boosters to parents of young children.

[Age at menarche and indigenous ancestry: a population study in Chile].

PubMed

Ossa, Ximena; Bustos, Patricia; Muñoz, Sergio; Amigo, Hugo

2012-08-01

The age at menarche may influence decisively health and disease in women. It also indicates the beginning of the reproductive period and, as a consequence, the possibility of biological continuity for the human species. Genetic and environmental determinants define the age of menarche and can explain differences found among different populations. To determine the age at menarche among adolescents with different levels of indigenous descent (parental indigenous surnames), considering the effect of socioeconomic and demographic factors. An observational study of historic cohorts of 8.624 girls from the Araucanía Region (central-southern Chile) was carried out. Data were collected by health professionals using a previously validated questionnaire. Occurrence of menarche was estimated through survival analysis and compared between groups (according to indigenous parental surnames) adjusted for parents' income and educational level and provenance (rural/urban). Estimated median age of menarche was 151 months (95% Cl: 150-151). In female with four indigenous surnames, menarche occurred two months later than girls without indigenous surnames and with two indigenous surnames (p < 0,001). In girls whose parents had lowest level of schooling, the difference increased to eight months later (p < 0,005). Age at menarche in the group with higher indigenous descent is later even if socio-economic conditions remain stable. Genetic factors might play an important role, however conditions of vulnerability can influence and further delay the onset of reproductive competency.

Epidemiology of Epilepsy in Older Adults with an Intellectual Disability in Ireland: Associations and Service Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarron, Mary; O'Dwyer, Marie; Burke, Eilish; McGlinchey, Eimear; McCallion, Philip

2014-01-01

There are limited studies on the prevalence of epilepsy and co-morbid conditions in older adults with an ID. To begin to address this prevalence of epilepsy was estimated for participants in the Intellectual Disability Supplement to the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing. Associations with demographic variables and co morbid health conditions were…

Estimation of premorbid general fluid intelligence using traditional Chinese reading performance in Taiwanese samples.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Jen; Ho, Meng-Yang; Chen, Kwan-Ju; Hsu, Chia-Fen; Ryu, Shan-Jin

2009-08-01

The aims of the present study were to (i) investigate if traditional Chinese word reading ability can be used for estimating premorbid general intelligence; and (ii) to provide multiple regression equations for estimating premorbid performance on Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices (RSPM), using age, years of education and Chinese Graded Word Reading Test (CGWRT) scores as predictor variables. Four hundred and twenty-six healthy volunteers (201 male, 225 female), aged 16-93 years (mean +/- SD, 41.92 +/- 18.19 years) undertook the tests individually under supervised conditions. Seventy percent of subjects were randomly allocated to the derivation group (n = 296), and the rest to the validation group (n = 130). RSPM score was positively correlated with CGWRT score and years of education. RSPM and CGWRT scores and years of education were also inversely correlated with age, but the declining trend for RSPM performance against age was steeper than that for CGWRT performance. Separate multiple regression equations were derived for estimating RSPM scores using different combinations of age, years of education, and CGWRT score for both groups. The multiple regression coefficient of each equation ranged from 0.71 to 0.80 with the standard error of estimate between 7 and 8 RSPM points. When fitting the data of one group to the equations derived from its counterpart group, the cross-validation multiple regression coefficients ranged from 0.71 to 0.79. There were no significant differences in the 'predicted-obtained' RSPM discrepancies between any equations. The regression equations derived in the present study may provide a basis for estimating premorbid RSPM performance.

A scientific and statistical analysis of accelerated aging for pharmaceuticals. Part 1: accuracy of fitting methods.

PubMed

Waterman, Kenneth C; Swanson, Jon T; Lippold, Blake L

2014-10-01

Three competing mathematical fitting models (a point-by-point estimation method, a linear fit method, and an isoconversion method) of chemical stability (related substance growth) when using high temperature data to predict room temperature shelf-life were employed in a detailed comparison. In each case, complex degradant formation behavior was analyzed by both exponential and linear forms of the Arrhenius equation. A hypothetical reaction was used where a drug (A) degrades to a primary degradant (B), which in turn degrades to a secondary degradation product (C). Calculated data with the fitting models were compared with the projected room-temperature shelf-lives of B and C, using one to four time points (in addition to the origin) for each of three accelerated temperatures. Isoconversion methods were found to provide more accurate estimates of shelf-life at ambient conditions. Of the methods for estimating isoconversion, bracketing the specification limit at each condition produced the best estimates and was considerably more accurate than when extrapolation was required. Good estimates of isoconversion produced similar shelf-life estimates fitting either linear or nonlinear forms of the Arrhenius equation, whereas poor isoconversion estimates favored one method or the other depending on which condition was most in error. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Inequality in oral health related to early and later life social conditions: a study of elderly in Norway and Sweden.

PubMed

Gülcan, Ferda; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-02-10

A life course perspective recognizes influences of socially patterned exposures on oral health across the life span. This study assessed the influence of early and later life social conditions on tooth loss and oral impacts on daily performances (OIDP) of people aged 65 and 70 years. Whether social inequalities in oral health changed after the usual age of retirement was also examined. In accordance with "the latent effect life course model", it was hypothesized that adverse early-life social conditions increase the risk of subsequent tooth loss and impaired OIDP, independent of later-life social conditions. Data were obtained from two cohorts studies conducted in Sweden and Norway. The 2007 and 2012 waves of the surveys were used for the present study. Early-life social conditions were measured in terms of gender, education and country of birth, and later-life social conditions were assessed by working status, marital status and size of social network. Logistic regression and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to analyse the data. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to adjust estimates for missing responses and loss to follow-up. Early-life social conditions contributed to tooth loss and OIDP in each survey year and both countries independent of later-life social conditions. Lower education correlated positively with tooth loss, but did not influence OIDP. Foreign country of birth correlated positively with oral impacts in Sweden only. Later-life social conditions were the strongest predictors of tooth loss and OIDP across survey years and countries. GEE revealed significant interactions between social network and survey year, and between marital status and survey year on tooth loss. The results confirmed the latent effect life course model in that early and later life social conditions had independent effects on tooth loss and OIDP among the elderly in Norway and Sweden. Between age 65 and 70, inequalities in tooth loss related to marital status declined, and inequalities related to social network increased.

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Age-Related Differences of Individuals’ Arithmetic Strategy Utilization with Different Level of Math Anxiety

PubMed Central

Si, Jiwei; Li, Hongxia; Sun, Yan; Xu, Yanli; Sun, Yu

2016-01-01

The present study used the choice/no-choice method to investigate the effect of math anxiety on the strategy used in computational estimation and mental arithmetic tasks and to examine age-related differences in this regard. Fifty-seven fourth graders, 56 sixth graders, and 60 adults were randomly selected to participate in the experiment. Results showed the following: (1) High-anxious individuals were more likely to use a rounding-down strategy in the computational estimation task under the best-choice condition. Additionally, sixth-grade students and adults performed faster than fourth-grade students on the strategy execution parameter. Math anxiety affected response times (RTs) and the accuracy with which strategies were executed. (2) The execution of the partial-decomposition strategy was superior to that of the full-decomposition strategy on the mental arithmetic task. Low-math-anxious persons provided more accurate answers than did high-math-anxious participants under the no-choice condition. This difference was significant for sixth graders. With regard to the strategy selection parameter, the RTs for strategy selection varied with age. PMID:27803685

Age-Related Differences of Individuals' Arithmetic Strategy Utilization with Different Level of Math Anxiety.

PubMed

Si, Jiwei; Li, Hongxia; Sun, Yan; Xu, Yanli; Sun, Yu

2016-01-01

The present study used the choice/no-choice method to investigate the effect of math anxiety on the strategy used in computational estimation and mental arithmetic tasks and to examine age-related differences in this regard. Fifty-seven fourth graders, 56 sixth graders, and 60 adults were randomly selected to participate in the experiment. Results showed the following: (1) High-anxious individuals were more likely to use a rounding-down strategy in the computational estimation task under the best-choice condition. Additionally, sixth-grade students and adults performed faster than fourth-grade students on the strategy execution parameter. Math anxiety affected response times (RTs) and the accuracy with which strategies were executed. (2) The execution of the partial-decomposition strategy was superior to that of the full-decomposition strategy on the mental arithmetic task. Low-math-anxious persons provided more accurate answers than did high-math-anxious participants under the no-choice condition. This difference was significant for sixth graders. With regard to the strategy selection parameter, the RTs for strategy selection varied with age.

Measuring disease prevalence: a comparison of musculoskeletal disease using four general practice consultation databases

PubMed Central

Jordan, Kelvin; Clarke, Alexandra M; Symmons, Deborah PM; Fleming, Douglas; Porcheret, Mark; Kadam, Umesh T; Croft, Peter

2007-01-01

Background Primary care consultation data are an important source of information on morbidity prevalence. It is not known how reliable such figures are. Aim To compare annual consultation prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal conditions derived from four general practice consultation databases. Design of study Retrospective study of general practice consultation records. Setting Three national general practice consultation databases: i) Fourth Morbidity Statistics from General Practice (MSGP4, 1991/92), ii) Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service (RCGP WRS, 2001), and iii) General Practice Research Database (GPRD, 1991 and 2001); and one regional database (Consultations in Primary Care Archive, 2001). Method Age-sex standardised persons consulting annual prevalence rates for musculoskeletal conditions overall, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and arthralgia were derived for patients aged 15 years and over. Results GPRD prevalence of any musculoskeletal condition, rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis was lower than that of the other databases. This is likely to be due to GPs not needing to record every consultation made for a chronic condition. MSGP4 gave the highest prevalence for osteoarthritis but low prevalence of arthralgia which reflects encouragement for GPs to use diagnostic rather than symptom codes. Conclusion Considerable variation exists in consultation prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal conditions. Researchers and health service planners should be aware that estimates of disease occurrence based on consultation will be influenced by choice of database. This is likely to be true for other chronic diseases and where alternative symptom labels exist for a disease. RCGP WRS may give the most reliable prevalence figures for musculoskeletal and other chronic diseases. PMID:17244418

The economic impact of loss of performance due to absenteeism and presenteeism caused by depressive symptoms and comorbid health conditions among Japanese workers.

PubMed

Wada, Koji; Arakida, Mikako; Watanabe, Rika; Negishi, Motomi; Sato, Jun; Tsutsumi, Akizumi

2013-01-01

We aimed to determine the economic impact of absenteeism and presenteeism from five conditions potentially comorbid with depressive symptoms-back or neck disorders, depression, anxiety, or emotional disorders, chronic headaches, stomach or bowel disorders, and insomnia-among Japanese workers aged 18-59 yr. Participants from 19 workplaces anonymously completed Stanford Presenteeism Scale questionnaires. Participants identified one primary health condition and determined the resultant performance loss (0-100%) over the previous 4-wk period. We estimated the wage loss by gender, using 10-yr age bands. A total of 6,777 participants undertook the study. Of these, we extracted the data for those in the 18-59 yr age band who chose targeted primary health conditions (males, 2,535; females 2,465). The primary health condition identified was back or neck disorders. We found that wage loss due to presenteeism and absenteeism per 100 workers across all 10-yr age bands was high for back or neck disorders. Wage loss per person was relatively high among those identifying depression, anxiety, or emotional disorders. These findings offer insight into developing strategies for workplace interventions on increasing work performance.

The Economic Impact of Loss of Performance Due to Absenteeism and Presenteeism Caused by Depressive Symptoms and Comorbid Health Conditions among Japanese Workers

PubMed Central

WADA, Koji; ARAKIDA, Mikako; WATANABE, Rika; NEGISHI, Motomi; SATO, Jun; TSUTSUMI, Akizumi

2013-01-01

We aimed to determine the economic impact of absenteeism and presenteeism from five conditions potentially comorbid with depressive symptoms—back or neck disorders, depression, anxiety, or emotional disorders, chronic headaches, stomach or bowel disorders, and insomnia—among Japanese workers aged 18–59 yr. Participants from 19 workplaces anonymously completed Stanford Presenteeism Scale questionnaires. Participants identified one primary health condition and determined the resultant performance loss (0–100%) over the previous 4-wk period. We estimated the wage loss by gender, using 10-yr age bands. A total of 6,777 participants undertook the study. Of these, we extracted the data for those in the 18–59 yr age band who chose targeted primary health conditions (males, 2,535; females 2,465). The primary health condition identified was back or neck disorders. We found that wage loss due to presenteeism and absenteeism per 100 workers across all 10-yr age bands was high for back or neck disorders. Wage loss per person was relatively high among those identifying depression, anxiety, or emotional disorders. These findings offer insight into developing strategies for workplace interventions on increasing work performance. PMID:23892900

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kendall, William L.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Hospital Utilization, Costs, and Mortality for Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions, Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2009

PubMed Central

Friedman, Bernard

2013-01-01

Objective Our objective was to provide a national estimate across all payers of the distribution and cost of selected chronic conditions for hospitalized adults in 2009, stratified by demographic characteristics. Analysis We analyzed the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), the largest all-payer inpatient database in the United States. Use, cost, and mortality estimates across payer, age, sex, and race/ethnicity are produced for grouped or multiple chronic conditions (MCC). The 5 most common dyads and triads were determined. Results In 2009, there were approximately 28 million adult discharges from US hospitals other than those related to pregnancy and maternity; 39% had 2 to 3 MCC, and 33% had 4 or more. A higher number of MCC was associated with higher mortality, use of services, and average cost. The percentages of Medicaid, privately insured patients, and ethnic/racial groups with 4 or more MCC were highly sensitive to age. Summary This descriptive analysis of multipayer inpatient data provides a robust national view of the substantial use and costs among adults hospitalized with MCC. PMID:23618542

The Sea Level Rise Tipping Point of Delta Survival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, R. E.; Kearney, M.; Parkinson, R. W.

2017-12-01

The estimated rate of global eustatic sea-level rise (RSLR) associated with the formation of thirty-six of the world's coastal deltas was calculated for the last 22,000 years. These deltas are located in a variety of environmental settings in respect to tidal range, isostasy, and climate. After correcting the original uncalibrated radiocarbon age estimates to calibrated years, 90% of the deltas appear to have formed at an average age of 8,109 ± 122 BP and a median age of 7,967 BP. This age corresponds to a period of significant deceleration in the RSLR to between 5 mm yr-1 and 10 mm yr-1, and is in agreement with two regional estimates of vegetation growth limits with respect to RSLR. This RSLR tipping point for delta formation can be used to inform forecasts of delta resiliency under conditions of climate change and concomitant sea level rise. The RSLR is accelerating and will likely be several times higher than the formation tipping point by the end of this century. Hence, the demise of the world's deltaic environments are likely to occur within the same time frame.

The prevalence of self-reported chronic conditions among Arab, Chaldean, and African Americans in southeast Michigan.

PubMed

Jamil, Hikmet; Dallo, Florence; Fakhouri, Monty; Templin, Thomas; Khoury, Radwan; Fakhouri, Haifa

2009-01-01

While there is a plethora of research on the prevalence of individual chronic conditions, studies that examine the clustering of these conditions are lacking, especially among immigrant, minority groups. Cross-sectional, convenience sample. A self-administered survey was distributed at churches, mosques, and small businesses. Arabs (n = 1383), Chaldeans (n = 868), Blacks (n = 809) and Whites (n = 220) in southeast Michigan. We estimated the prevalence of hypertension, high cholesterol, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, and depression. Using a logistic regression model, we estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between ethnicity and reporting one or more chronic conditions before and after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic status, health care, chronic conditions, and health behavior variables. The overall age and sex-adjusted prevalence of having one or more chronic conditions was 44%. Estimates were lower for Chaldeans (32%) compared to Arabs (44%), Whites and Blacks (50% for each group). In the fully adjusted model, Chaldeans were less likely (OR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.43-0.89) to report having one more chronic conditions compared to Whites. Future studies should employ probability samples, and should collect more detailed sociodemographic and acculturation data, which influence the relationship between race/ethnicity and the prevalence of chronic conditions.

Determination of age, sex, and blood group from a single tooth.

PubMed

Nayar, Amit K; Parhar, Swati; Thind, Gagandeep; Sharma, Aman; Sharma, Divya

2017-01-01

Human identification is one of the most challenging subjects that human has been confronted with. Through the ages, odontological examinations have been a critical determinant in the search of human identity. Data in the form of age, gender, and blood group might provide vital clues in such investigations. In the recent times, it has been often desirable to preserve tissues for further investigations following the unfolding of certain events or discovery of new data. Hence, it is important to gather as much data as possible using less tissue. The purpose of this study was to determine age, sex, and ABO blood group of individual from a single tooth, to determine the effect of different environmental conditions, and to extract maximum information also at the same time preserving some tissue for the further investigation whenever needed. The study sample consisted of sixty teeth divided into four groups under different environmental conditions and time. The teeth were sectioned longitudinally in the buccolingual plane along the midline. Longitudinal ground sections of each tooth were prepared for age determination from cemental lines. Pulp removed was divided into two halves thereafter sex and blood group was determined. For correlation of age between estimated age and actual age, using cemental lines Pearson's correlation coefficient was applied. Further for determination of both sex and blood group between groups, Chi-square test was applied. A strong positive correlation was found between the estimated age and actual age of the study groups. Moreover, there was no significant difference between the actual and determined sex and blood group of the study groups. Although age, sex, and blood group are more reliably determined in freshly extracted teeth, these variables may be of significant help in identification even after a period of 6 weeks postextraction.

Examination of DNA methylation status of the ELOVL2 marker may be useful for human age prediction in forensic science.

PubMed

Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Spólnicka, Magdalena; Kupiec, Tomasz; Makowska, Żanetta; Spas, Anna; Parys-Proszek, Agnieszka; Kucharczyk, Krzysztof; Płoski, Rafał; Branicki, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Age estimation in forensic investigations may complement the prediction of externally visible characteristics and the inference of biogeographical ancestry, thus allowing a better description of an unknown individual. Multiple CpG sites that show linear correlation between age and degree of DNA methylation have been identified in the human genome, providing a selection of candidates for age prediction. In this study, we optimized an assay based on bisulfite conversion and pyrosequencing of 7 CpG sites located in the ELOVL2 gene. Examination of 303 blood samples collected from individuals aged 2-75 years allowed selection of the most informative site, explaining 83% of variation in age. The final linear regression model included two CpG sites in ELOVL2 and enabled age prediction with R(2)=0.859, prediction error=6.85 and mean absolute deviation MAD=5.03. Examination of a testing set of 124 blood samples (MAD=5.75) showed that 68.5% of samples were correctly predicted, assuming that chronological and predicted ages matched ± 7 years. It was found that the ELOVL2 methylation status in bloodstains had not changed significantly after 4 weeks of storage in room temperature conditions. Analysis of 45 bloodstains deposited on tissue paper after 5, 10 and 15 years of storage in room conditions indicated that although a gradual decrease of positive PCR results was observed, the general age prediction success rate remained similar and equaled 60-78%. The obtained results show that the ELOVL2 locus provides a very good source of information about human chronological age based on analysis of blood, including bloodstains, and it may constitute a powerful and reliable predictor in future forensic age estimation models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from Brandsen and its relationship with socio-environmental characteristics of residence].

PubMed

Cesani, María F; Luis, María A; Torres, María F; Castro, Luis E; Quintero, Fabián A; Luna, María E; Bergel, María L; Oyhenart, Evelia E

2010-08-01

Environmental factors play an important role in the etiology of overweight (S) and obesity (O), constituting the "obesogenic environment". The objectives of the present study are: a) to estimate overweight and obesity prevalences in 3 to 14 years-old schoolchildren from Brandsen (Provincia de Buenos Aires), and b) to analyze the probability of occurrence of overweight and obesity in relation to the socioenvironmental conditions of resident. Weight and height were measured in 989 boys and girls aged 3 to 14 years. S and O were estimated following the criteria suggested by the International Obesity Task Force. The prevalences of S and O were compared between genders and ages. The socio- environmental information was gathered according to surveys and processed by Categorical Principal Components Analysis (catPCA). Generalized Linear Model (link logit) against the variables S and O was employed. S was found in 15,8% of schoolchildren and O in 7,2%. None significative statistics differences between both genders and ages, were found. The first axis of the catPCA discriminated the cases that presented better socio-environmental conditions with positive values and those with more unfavorable conditions with negatives values. Higher probability of obese children was associated with better socio-environmental conditions (higher educational level of parents, higher income and better access to public services), and higher probability of overweight children was associated with less favored environments. The schoolchildren population of Brandsen presents high overweight and obesity prevalences. The chance of presenting overweight is higher in children from households with adverse socio-environmental conditions. On the contrary, obese children are to be more found in households which have more favorable socio-environmental conditions.

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

PubMed

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medical costs and lost productivity from health conditions at volatile organic compound-contaminated Superfund sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lybarger, J.A.; Spengler, R.F.; Brown, D.R.

1998-10-01

This paper estimates the health costs at Superfund sites for conditions associated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water. Health conditions were identified from published literature and registry information as occurring at excess rates in VOC-exposed populations. These health conditions were: (1) some categories of birth defects, (2) urinary tract disorders, (3) diabetes, (4) eczema and skin conditions, (5) anemia, (6) speech and hearing impairments in children under 10 years of age, and (7) stroke. Excess rates were used to estimate the excess number of cases occurring among the total population living within one-half mile of 258 Superfund sites.more » These sites had evidence of completed human exposure pathways for VOCs in drinking water. For each type of medical condition, an individual`s expected medical costs, long-term care costs, and lost work time due to illness or premature mortality were estimated. Costs were calculated to be approximately $330 million per year, in the absence of any remediation or public health intervention programs. The results indicate the general magnitude of the economic burden associated with a limited number of contaminants at a portion of all Superfund sites, thus suggesting that the burden would be greater than that estimated in this study if all contaminants at all Superfund sites could be taken into account.« less

Comparison of laboratory and in-situ measurements of waterflood residual oil saturations for the Cormorant field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

van Poelgeest, F.; Niko, H.; Modwid, A.R.

1991-03-01

Shell Expro and Koninklijke/Shell E and P Laboratorium (KSEPL) have been engaged in a multidisciplinary effort to determine the water flood residual oil saturation (ROS) in two principal reservoirs of the Cormorant oil field in the U.K. sector of the North Sea. Data acquisition included special coring and testing. The study, which involved new reservoir-engineering and petrophysical techniques, was aimed at establishing consistent ROS values. This paper reports that reservoir-engineering work centered on reservoir-condition corefloods in the relative-permeability-at-reservoir-conditions (REPARC) apparatus, in which restoration of representative wettability condition was attempted with the aging technique. Aging results in a consistent reduction ofmore » water-wetness of all core samples. The study indicated that ROS values obtained on aged cores at water throughputs of at least 5 PV represented reservoir conditions. The petrophysical part of the study involved ROS estimation from sponge-core analysis and log evaluation.« less

The impact of calibration and clock-model choice on molecular estimates of divergence times.

PubMed

Duchêne, Sebastián; Lanfear, Robert; Ho, Simon Y W

2014-09-01

Phylogenetic estimates of evolutionary timescales can be obtained from nucleotide sequence data using the molecular clock. These estimates are important for our understanding of evolutionary processes across all taxonomic levels. The molecular clock needs to be calibrated with an independent source of information, such as fossil evidence, to allow absolute ages to be inferred. Calibration typically involves fixing or constraining the age of at least one node in the phylogeny, enabling the ages of the remaining nodes to be estimated. We conducted an extensive simulation study to investigate the effects of the position and number of calibrations on the resulting estimate of the timescale. Our analyses focused on Bayesian estimates obtained using relaxed molecular clocks. Our findings suggest that an effective strategy is to include multiple calibrations and to prefer those that are close to the root of the phylogeny. Under these conditions, we found that evolutionary timescales could be estimated accurately even when the relaxed-clock model was misspecified and when the sequence data were relatively uninformative. We tested these findings in a case study of simian foamy virus, where we found that shallow calibrations caused the overall timescale to be underestimated by up to three orders of magnitude. Finally, we provide some recommendations for improving the practice of molecular-clock calibration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial ages of Antarctic meteorites: Implications for concentration mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, L.

1986-01-01

Antarctic meteorites differ from meteorites fallen in other places in their mean terrestrial ages. Boeckl estimated the terrestrial half-life for the disintegration of stone meteorites by weathering under the climatic conditions of the Western United States to be about 3600 years. Antarctic meteorites, however, have terrestrial ages up to 70000 years, indicating larger weathering half-lives. The terrestrial ages of meteorites are determined by their concentration of cosmic-ray-produced radionuclides with suitable half-lives (C-14, Al-26, and Cl-36). These radionuclides have yielded reliable ages for the Antarctic meteorites. The distribution of terrestrial ages of Allan Hills and Yamato meteorites are examined.

The effects of incremental costs of smoking and obesity on health care costs among adults: a 7-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Moriarty, James P; Branda, Megan E; Olsen, Kerry D; Shah, Nilay D; Borah, Bijan J; Wagie, Amy E; Egginton, Jason S; Naessens, James M

2012-03-01

To provide the simultaneous 7-year estimates of incremental costs of smoking and obesity among employees and dependents in a large health care system. We used a retrospective cohort aged 18 years or older with continuous enrollment during the study period. Longitudinal multivariate cost analyses were performed using generalized estimating equations with demographic adjustments. The annual incremental mean costs of smoking by age group ranged from $1274 to $1401. The incremental costs of morbid obesity II by age group ranged from $5467 to $5530. These incremental costs drop substantially when comorbidities are included. Obesity and smoking have large long-term impacts on health care costs of working-age adults. Controlling comorbidities impacted incremental costs of obesity but may lead to underestimation of the true incremental costs because obesity is a risk factor for developing chronic conditions.

Burden of musculoskeletal disease and its determination by urbanicity, socioeconomic status, age, and sex: Results from 14,507 subjects.

PubMed

Vavken, Patrick; Dorotka, Ronald

2011-11-01

The availability of reliable estimates of the burden of musculoskeletal disease is of considerable importance for policymakers. This study uses data from the 14,507 participants of the European Health Interview Survey conducted in Austria in 2006/2007 to calculate estimates of the prevalence of osteoarthritis, spinal conditions, and osteoporosis in a population representative of other European Union or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. Urbanicity, socioeconomic status, and age and sex were included as determinants of musculoskeletal disease. The prevalence of arthritis was 18.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 18.2-19.4%), of spinal conditions was 38.4% (95% CI 37.6-39.2%), and of osteoporosis was 6.6% (95% CI 6.3-7.0%). The census data showed strong evidence for an association between urbanicity and arthritis (P = 0.012) and osteoporosis (P < 0.001), but not spinal conditions (P = 0.721). Arthritis and spinal conditions were associated with socioeconomic status (P < 0.001 for all). Osteoporosis showed the same associations with age, income, and education. For arthritis, a combined model showed a substantial attenuation of the effect of urbanicity on arthritis prevalence after adjustment for socioeconomic status. These data suggest that the burden of musculoskeletal disease is determined by both urbanicity and socioeconomic status; however, the effect of urbanicity seems to be attributable to differences in socioeconomic status and demographics across geographic regions. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Delineating the third age: joint models of older people's quality of life and attrition in Britain 2002-2010.

PubMed

Tampubolon, Gindo

2015-07-01

In the public mind, later life is being transformed by the emerging possibility of a flourishing third age with sustained quality of life. We draw trajectories of life quality measured using CASP-19 over eight years. We refine these trajectories by jointly modelling attrition, since older people tend to leave longitudinal studies (attrite) not at random. Growth curve models are applied to the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing waves 1 to 5. Then joint model is estimated where attrition is considered. Extensive predictors are entered including demographic attributes, social and economic status, health conditions, and behaviours. Strong non-linear age trajectory of life quality is revealed by the growth curve models where the peak is achieved in the late 60s. Then the joint model uncovers the peak somewhat later in time, and also reveals secular improvement in life quality experienced by recent cohorts. Sharp estimates for many predictors of higher levels of life quality are also found. For the first time, the trajectories of life quality in the third age are drawn and improvement across cohorts is demonstrated. The contributions are estimated for predictors amenable to intervention such as social capital. This can help in policy discussion on improving the lives of older people in the third age.

Assessment of cortical bone fracture resistance curves by fusing artificial neural networks and linear regression.

PubMed

Vukicevic, Arso M; Jovicic, Gordana R; Jovicic, Milos N; Milicevic, Vladimir L; Filipovic, Nenad D

2018-02-01

Bone injures (BI) represents one of the major health problems, together with cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Assessment of the risks associated with BI is nontrivial since fragility of human cortical bone is varying with age. Due to restrictions for performing experiments on humans, only a limited number of fracture resistance curves (R-curves) for particular ages have been reported in the literature. This study proposes a novel decision support system for the assessment of bone fracture resistance by fusing various artificial intelligence algorithms. The aim was to estimate the R-curve slope, toughness threshold and stress intensity factor using the two input parameters commonly available during a routine clinical examination: patients age and crack length. Using the data from the literature, the evolutionary assembled Artificial Neural Network was developed and used for the derivation of Linear regression (LR) models of R-curves for arbitrary age. Finally, by using the patient (age)-specific LR models and diagnosed crack size one could estimate the risk of bone fracture under given physiological conditions. Compared to the literature, we demonstrated improved performances for estimating nonlinear changes of R-curve slope (R 2 = 0.82 vs. R 2 = 0.76) and Toughness threshold with ageing (R 2 = 0.73 vs. R 2 = 0.66).

Quantitative estimation of bioclimatic parameters from presence/absence vegetation data in North America by the modern analog technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Anderson, K.H.; Bartlein, P.J.

2008-01-01

The method of modern analogs is widely used to obtain estimates of past climatic conditions from paleobiological assemblages, and despite its frequent use, this method involved so-far untested assumptions. We applied four analog approaches to a continental-scale set of bioclimatic and plant-distribution presence/absence data for North America to assess how well this method works under near-optimal modern conditions. For each point on the grid, we calculated the similarity between its vegetation assemblage and those of all other points on the grid (excluding nearby points). The climate of the points with the most similar vegetation was used to estimate the climate at the target grid point. Estimates based the use of the Jaccard similarity coefficient had smaller errors than those based on the use of a new similarity coefficient, although the latter may be more robust because it does not assume that the "fossil" assemblage is complete. The results of these analyses indicate that presence/absence vegetation assemblages provide a valid basis for estimating bioclimates on the continental scale. However, the accuracy of the estimates is strongly tied to the number of species in the target assemblage, and the analog method is necessarily constrained to produce estimates that fall within the range of observed values. We applied the four modern analog approaches and the mutual overlap (or "mutual climatic range") method to estimate bioclimatic conditions represented by the plant macrofossil assemblage from a packrat midden of Last Glacial Maximum age from southern Nevada. In general, the estimation approaches produced similar results in regard to moisture conditions, but there was a greater range of estimates for growing-degree days. Despite its limitations, the modern analog technique can provide paleoclimatic reconstructions that serve as the starting point to the interpretation of past climatic conditions.

Effect of cryogenic treatment on the fracture toughness of aircraft aluminum alloy 7075

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermishkin, V. A.; Soloveva, Y. B.

2018-04-01

Influence of three types of the treatment on fracture toughness of the Al-7075 alloy was investigated in this study. Commercial Al-7075 alloy in the solid solution heat-treated condition was processed by hardening with post-cryogenic deformation treatment and PVD deposition titanium and copper coatings. The fracture toughness was estimated with using macroscopic and microscopic approaches. The conditions for the coincidence of the fracture toughness estimates between brittle fracture mechanics and the photometric analysis of structural images (PHASI) methods were achieved. The highest fracture toughness was obtained by applying hardening, cryogenic compression, ageing and deposition of the Ti-coating, leading to dispersion particles precipitation.

Learning Multiple Band-Pass Filters for Sleep Stage Estimation: Towards Care Support for Aged Persons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takadama, Keiki; Hirose, Kazuyuki; Matsushima, Hiroyasu; Hattori, Kiyohiko; Nakajima, Nobuo

This paper proposes the sleep stage estimation method that can provide an accurate estimation for each person without connecting any devices to human's body. In particular, our method learns the appropriate multiple band-pass filters to extract the specific wave pattern of heartbeat, which is required to estimate the sleep stage. For an accurate estimation, this paper employs Learning Classifier System (LCS) as the data-mining techniques and extends it to estimate the sleep stage. Extensive experiments on five subjects in mixed health confirm the following implications: (1) the proposed method can provide more accurate sleep stage estimation than the conventional method, and (2) the sleep stage estimation calculated by the proposed method is robust regardless of the physical condition of the subject.

Biopsychosocial Characteristics of Community-dwelling Older Adults with Limited Ability to Walk ¼ Mile

PubMed Central

Hardy, Susan E.; McGurl, David J.; Studenski, Stephanie A.; Degenholtz, Howard B.

2010-01-01

Objectives To establish nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of self-reported difficulty and inability to walk ¼ mile among older adults and to identify the characteristics independently associated with difficulty or inability to walk ¼ mile. Design Cross-sectional analysis of data from the 2003 Cost and Use Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Setting Community. Participants 9563 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, representing an estimated total population of 34.2 million older adults. Measurements Self-reported ability to walk ¼ mile, sociodemographics, chronic conditions, body mass index, smoking, and functional status. Results In 2003, an estimated 9.5 million aged Medicare beneficiaries had difficulty walking ¼ mile and 5.9 million were unable. Among the 20.2 million older adults with no difficulty in basic or instrumental activities of daily living (ADL), an estimated 4.3 million (21%) had limited ability to walk ¼ mile. Having difficulty or being unable to walk ¼ mile was independently associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic ethnicity, lower educational level, Medicaid entitlement, most chronic medical conditions, current smoking, and being overweight or obese. Conclusion Almost half of older adults, and 20% of those reporting no ADL limitations, report limited ability to walk ¼ mile. Among functionally independent older adults, reported ability to walk ¼ mile can identify vulnerable older adults with greater medical problems and fewer resources, and may be a valuable clinical marker in planning their care. Future work is needed to determine the association between ¼ mile walk ability and subsequent functional decline and healthcare utilization. PMID:20210817

Modelling the time at which overcrowding and feed interruption emerge on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever outbreak.

PubMed

Weng, H Y; Yadav, S; Olynk Widmar, N J; Croney, C; Ash, M; Cooper, M

2017-03-01

A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer's decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer's decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.

Metamorphic P-T paths and Precambrian crustal growth in East Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harley, S. L.

1988-01-01

The metamorphic constraints on crustal thicknesses in Archean and post-Archean terranes are summarized along with possible implications for tectonic processes. It is important to recognize that P-T estimates represent perturbed conditions and should not be used to estimate steady state geothermal gradients or crustal thicknesses. The example is cited of the Dora Maira complex in the French Alps, where crustal rocks record conditions of 35 kbar and 800 C, implying their subduction to depths of 100 km or more, followed by subsequent uplift to the surface. Therefore such P-T estimates tell more about processes than crustal thicknesses. More importantly, according to the author, are determinations of P-T paths, particularly coupled with age measurements, because these may provide constraints on how and when perturbed conditions relax back to steady state conditions. P-T paths are illustrated that should be expected from specific tectonic processes, including Tibetan style collision, with and without subsequent extension, rifting of thin or thickened crust, and magmatic accretion. Growth of new crust, associated with magmatic accretion, for example, could possibly be monitored with these P-T paths.

Modeled ground water age distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, Linda R.; Ginn, Timothy R.

2009-01-01

The age of ground water in any given sample is a distributed quantity representing distributed provenance (in space and time) of the water. Conventional analysis of tracers such as unstable isotopes or anthropogenic chemical species gives discrete or binary measures of the presence of water of a given age. Modeled ground water age distributions provide a continuous measure of contributions from different recharge sources to aquifers. A numerical solution of the ground water age equation of Ginn (1999) was tested both on a hypothetical simplified one-dimensional flow system and under real world conditions. Results from these simulations yield the first continuous distributions of ground water age using this model. Complete age distributions as a function of one and two space dimensions were obtained from both numerical experiments. Simulations in the test problem produced mean ages that were consistent with the expected value at the end of the model domain for all dispersivity values tested, although the mean ages for the two highest dispersivity values deviated slightly from the expected value. Mean ages in the dispersionless case also were consistent with the expected mean ages throughout the physical model domain. Simulations under real world conditions for three dispersivity values resulted in decreasing mean age with increasing dispersivity. This likely is a consequence of an edge effect. However, simulations for all three dispersivity values tested were mass balanced and stable demonstrating that the solution of the ground water age equation can provide estimates of water mass density distributions over age under real world conditions.

Medical care expenditures for selected circulatory diseases: opportunities for reducing national health expenditures.

PubMed

Hodgson, T A; Cohen, A J

1999-10-01

Circulatory system diseases are a significant burden in terms of morbidity, mortality, and use of health care services. This article presents total, per capita, and per condition US medical care expenditures in 1995 for circulatory diseases according to sex, age, and type of health service. Total personal health care expenditures estimated by the Health Care Financing Administration for each type of health care service are separated into components to estimate patient expenditures by age, sex, primary medical diagnosis, and health care service for all diseases of the circulatory system, heart disease, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, hypertensive disease, and cerebrovascular disease. Expenditures for circulatory diseases totaled $127.8 billion in 1995 (17% of all personal health care expenditures), $486 per capita, and $1,636 per condition. Approximately one half of expenditures was for hospital care and 20% was for nursing home care. Heart disease accounted for 60% of circulatory expenditures. Expenditures increased with age and reached 35% of expenditures among persons aged 85 years and older, which was almost $7,000 per capita. These relationships vary somewhat according to the specific circulatory disease, type of health care, and age. Expenditures increase with age and circulatory diseases can be expected to command an increasing share of national health expenditures as the number and proportion of the population that is elderly grows. The alteration of lifestyles and medical interventions provide many opportunities to prevent circulatory diseases and to reduce national health expenditures.

Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

PubMed

Di Pietro, Giorgio

2018-02-01

This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characteristics and conditions of teenage safety belt use

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-07-01

Safety belt use was observed for 7,384 vehicle occupants estimated as 15-19 years old in four states - Texas, Virginia, Idaho, and Mississippi. Age and other pertinent information was obtained from 2,330 teen occupants. Belt use ranged from 19.5% in ...

Manipulating the reported age in earliest memories.

PubMed

Wessel, Ineke; Schweig, Theresa; Huntjens, Rafaële J C

2017-11-02

Previous work suggests that the estimated age in adults' earliest autobiographical memories depends on age information implied by the experimental context [e.g., Kingo, O. S., Bohn, A., & Krøjgaard, P. (2013). Warm-up questions on early childhood memories affect the reported age of earliest memories in late adolescence. Memory, 21(2), 280-284. doi: 10.1080/09658211.2012.729598 ] and that the age in decontextualised snippets of memory is younger than in more complete accounts (i.e., event memories [Bruce, D., Wilcox-O'Hearn, L. A., Robinson, J. A., Phillips-Grant, K., Francis, L., & Smith, M. C. (2005). Fragment memories mark the end of childhood amnesia. Memory & Cognition, 33(4), 567-576. doi: 10.3758/BF03195324 ]). We examined the malleability of the estimated age in undergraduates' earliest memories and its relation with memory quality. In Study 1 (n = 141), vignettes referring to events happening at age 2 rendered earlier reported ages than examples referring to age 6. Exploratory analyses suggested that event memories were more sensitive to the age manipulation than memories representing a single, isolated scene (i.e., snapshots). In Study 2 (n = 162), asking self-relevant and public-event knowledge questions about participants' preschool years prior to retrieval yielded comparable average estimated ages. Both types of semantic knowledge questions rendered earlier memories than a no-age control task. Overall, the reported age in snapshots was younger than in event memories. However, age-differences between memory types across conditions were not statistically significant. Together, the results add to the growing literature indicating that the average age in earliest memories is not as fixed as previously thought.

Prevalence and incidence of adults consulting for shoulder conditions in UK primary care; patterns of diagnosis and referral.

PubMed

Linsell, L; Dawson, J; Zondervan, K; Rose, P; Randall, T; Fitzpatrick, R; Carr, A

2006-02-01

To estimate the national prevalence and incidence of adults consulting for a shoulder condition and to investigate patterns of diagnosis, treatment, consultation and referral 3 yr after initial presentation. Prevalence and incidence rates were estimated for 658469 patients aged 18 and over in the year 2000 using a primary care database, the IMS Disease Analyzer-Mediplus UK. A cohort of 9215 incident cases was followed-up prospectively for 3 yr beyond the initial consultation. The annual prevalence and incidence of people consulting for a shoulder condition was 2.36% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.32-2.40%] and 1.47% (95% CI 1.44-1.50%), respectively. Prevalence increased linearly with age whilst incidence peaked at around 50 yr then remained static at around 2%. Around half of the incident cases consulted once only, while 13.6% were still consulting with a shoulder problem during the third year of follow-up. During the 3 yr following initial presentation, 22.4% of patients were referred to secondary care, 30.8% were prescribed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and 10.6% were given an injection by their general practitioner (GP). GPs tended to use a limited number of generalized codes when recording a diagnosis; just five of 426 possible Read codes relating to shoulder conditions accounted for 74.6% of the diagnoses of new cases recorded by GPs. The prevalence of people consulting for shoulder problems in primary care is substantially lower than community-based estimates of shoulder pain. Most referrals occur within 3 months of initial presentation, but only a minority of patients are referred to orthopaedic specialists or rheumatologists. GPs may lack confidence in applying precise diagnoses to shoulder conditions.

Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

2017-08-01

Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model has lower degrees of freedom. Both approaches rely on previously developed lifetime models each of them corresponding to predefined SoH. Concerning first approach, model selection is aided by state-machine-based algorithm. In the second approach, model selection conditioned by tracking an exceedance of predefined thresholds is concerned. The approach is applied to data generated from tribological systems. By calculating Root Squared Error (RSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Absolute Error (ABE) the accuracy of proposed models/approaches is discussed along with related advantages and disadvantages. Verification of the approach is done using cross-fold validation, exchanging training and test data. It can be stated that the newly introduced approach based on data (denoted as data-based or data-driven) parametric models can be easily established providing detailed information about remaining useful/consumed lifetime valid for systems with constant load but stochastically occurred damage.

Health status measurement in Toxic Oil Syndrome.

PubMed

Gómez de la Cámara, A; Posada de la Paz, M; Abaitua Borda, I; Barainca Oyagüe, M T; Abraira Santos, V; Ruiz-Navarro, M D; Terracini, B

1998-10-01

Toxic Oil Syndrome (TOS) is a previously unreported condition which affected more than 20,000 people in Spain in 1981 and whose natural history is unknown. In 1993-94, a stratified random sample of 1400 survivors was drawn to measure their health status through clinical examination and their self-perception of well-being through the Nottingham Health Profile Questionnaire (NHPQ). Two-thirds of the sample population responded; indirect estimates suggest that selection bias was limited. Clear and intermediate signs of neuropathy were found in one-fifth and one-half of the patients, respectively. One-fourth and one-sixth showed some degree of scleroderma and contractures. All conditions were more frequent in women than in men and in age >50 than in younger ages. Although no concurrent control group was included in the study, prevalences of these conditions are well above expectations and are largely attributable to TOS. NHPQ scores increased with age in both sexes up to age 50, after which they reached a plateau (with values around 48 in men and 62 in women). Scores were associated to the occurrence of peripheral neurological changes, contractures, and scleroderma-like conditions. A multivariate analysis indicated age, sex, and severity of neurological conditions as major determinants of the NHPQ scores. This overall pattern of findings is peculiar to TOS and differs from the typical post-disaster nonspecific syndrome.

The influence of thermal discomfort on the attention index of teenagers: an experimental evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazon, Jordi

2014-07-01

In order to measure the effect on the attention of teenagers of thermal discomfort due to high temperature and humidity, two experiments were conducted in two different indoor conditions of temperature and humidity in non-air-conditioned classrooms. The participants were a heterogeneous group of 117 teenagers, aged 12 to 18 years, and the experiments reproduced the actual conditions of teaching in a classroom in the Mediterranean climate. In order to measure the attention index, a standard Toulouse-Pieron psychological test was performed on the 117 teenagers in these two conditions, and the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV), the physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), the Standard effective Temperature (SET*) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) indices were calculated to estimate the grade of discomfort using the RayMan Pro model. Conditions of greater discomfort decreased the attention index in the whole group, especially in those aged 12-14, among whom the attention index dropped by around 45 % when compared to comfortable conditions. However, teenage attention at ages 17 and 18 shows little variation in discomfort in respect to thermally comfortable conditions. In addition, the attention index for boys and girls shows the same variation in discomfort conditions. However, girls have a slightly higher attention index than boys in discomfort and thermal comfort experiments.

Hemograms for and nutritional condition of migrant bald eagles tested for exposure to lead.

PubMed

Miller, M J; Wayland, M E; Bortolotti, G R

2001-07-01

Plasma proteins, hematocrit, differential blood counts were examined and nutritional condition was estimated for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) trapped (n = 66) during antumn migration, 1994-95 at Galloway Bay (Saskatchewan, Canada), for the purposes of estimating prevalence of exposure to lead. Sex and age differences in hematocrit and plasma proteins were not observed; however, female eagles exhibited larger median absolute heterophil counts than males. Hematologic values were similar to those previously reported from eagles in captivity. Departures from expected hematological values from a healthy population of eagles were not observed in birds with elevated levels of blood lead (> or =0.200 microg/ml). Similarly, nutritional condition was not related to blood-lead concentrations. Therefore, it appears that lead exposure in this population was below a threshold required to indicate toxicological alteration in the hematological values and index of nutritional condition that we measured.

From adolescent to elder rats: Motivation for palatable food and cannabinoids receptors.

PubMed

Amancio-Belmont, Octavio; Romano-López, Antonio; Ruiz-Contreras, Alejandra Evelin; Méndez-Díaz, Mónica; Prospéro-García, Oscar

2017-09-01

To analyze motivation, food self-administration and decision-making were evaluated in adolescent, adult, and aged rats. Subjects were trained to press a lever (fixed ratio, FR1 and FR5) in an operant chamber, to obtain chocolate flavor pellets. They assessed the progressive ratio (PR), extinction, and reinstatement of the behavior. To estimate decision-making for food, rats were trained in the conditioned place preference (CPP) paradigm: (a) associating one compartment with lab chow (LCh) one day and the other compartment with rice krisspies (RK), the next day. (b) Training similar to (a) but on the day RK was the reinforcer, it was delivered with a progressive delay. In addition, CB1 and CB2 receptor expression in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) and prefrontal cortex (PFC) was estimated by means of Western blot. Adolescent rats consumed higher amounts of RK/body weight than adult and aged rats during FR1, FR5, and PR. Extinction was more prolonged for adolescent rats than for adult and aged rats. First CPP condition, all three groups of rats preferred the RK-associated compartment. Second CPP condition, adolescent rats developed equal preference to both compartments, while adult and aged rats preferred the RK-associated compartment. Rats per group ate a similar amount of either reinforcer. Adolescent rats exhibited low expression of CB1R in the NAcc and low expression of both CB1R and CB2R in the PFC compared with adult and aged rats. Adolescent rats display higher motivation for palatable food and an indiscriminate seeking behavior suggesting involvement of both homeostatic and hedonic systems in their decision-making processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Develop Neurobiol 77: 917-927, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimation of lifetime distributions on 1550-nm DFB laser diodes using Monte-Carlo statistic computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshayes, Yannick; Verdier, Frederic; Bechou, Laurent; Tregon, Bernard; Danto, Yves; Laffitte, Dominique; Goudard, Jean Luc

2004-09-01

High performance and high reliability are two of the most important goals driving the penetration of optical transmission into telecommunication systems ranging from 880 nm to 1550 nm. Lifetime prediction defined as the time at which a parameter reaches its maximum acceptable shirt still stays the main result in terms of reliability estimation for a technology. For optoelectronic emissive components, selection tests and life testing are specifically used for reliability evaluation according to Telcordia GR-468 CORE requirements. This approach is based on extrapolation of degradation laws, based on physics of failure and electrical or optical parameters, allowing both strong test time reduction and long-term reliability prediction. Unfortunately, in the case of mature technology, there is a growing complexity to calculate average lifetime and failure rates (FITs) using ageing tests in particular due to extremely low failure rates. For present laser diode technologies, time to failure tend to be 106 hours aged under typical conditions (Popt=10 mW and T=80°C). These ageing tests must be performed on more than 100 components aged during 10000 hours mixing different temperatures and drive current conditions conducting to acceleration factors above 300-400. These conditions are high-cost, time consuming and cannot give a complete distribution of times to failure. A new approach consists in use statistic computations to extrapolate lifetime distribution and failure rates in operating conditions from physical parameters of experimental degradation laws. In this paper, Distributed Feedback single mode laser diodes (DFB-LD) used for 1550 nm telecommunication network working at 2.5 Gbit/s transfer rate are studied. Electrical and optical parameters have been measured before and after ageing tests, performed at constant current, according to Telcordia GR-468 requirements. Cumulative failure rates and lifetime distributions are computed using statistic calculations and equations of drift mechanisms versus time fitted from experimental measurements.

Testing the Relationships between Diversification, Species Richness, and Trait Evolution.

PubMed

Kozak, Kenneth H; Wiens, John J

2016-11-01

Understanding which traits drive species diversification is essential for macroevolutionary studies and to understand patterns of species richness among clades. An important tool for testing if traits influence diversification is to estimate rates of net diversification for each clade, and then test for a relationship between traits and diversification rates among clades. However, this general approach has become very controversial. Numerous papers have now stated that it is inappropriate to analyze net diversification rates in groups in which clade richness is not positively correlated with clade age. Similarly, some have stated that variation in net diversification rates does not explain variation in species richness patterns among clades across the Tree of Life. Some authors have also suggested that strong correlations between richness and diversification rates are a statistical artifact and effectively inevitable. If this latter point is true, then correlations between richness and diversification rates would be uninformative (or even misleading) for identifying how much variation in species richness among clades is explained by variation in net diversification rates. Here, we use simulations (based on empirical data for plethodontid salamanders) to address three main questions. First, how is variation in net diversification rates among clades related to the relationship between clade age and species richness? Second, how accurate are these net diversification rate estimators, and does the age-richness relationship have any relevance to their accuracy? Third, is a relationship between species richness and diversification rates an inevitable, statistical artifact? Our simulations show that strong, positive age-richness relationships arise when diversification rates are invariant among clades, whereas realistic variation in diversification rates among clades frequently disrupts this relationship. Thus, a significant age-richness relationship should not be a requirement for utilizing net diversification rates in macroevolutionary studies. Moreover, we find no difference in the accuracy of net diversification rate estimators between conditions in which there are strong, positive relationships between clade age and richness and conditions in which these strong relationships are absent. We find that net diversification rate estimators are reasonably accurate under many conditions (true and estimated rates are strongly corrrelated, and typically differ by ∼10-20%), but become more accurate when clades are older and less accurate when using incorrect assumptions about extinction. We also find that significant relationships between richness and diversification rates fail to arise under many conditions, especially when there are faster rates in younger clades. Therefore, a significant relationship between richness and diversification rates is not inevitable. Given this latter result, we suggest that relationships between richness and diversification should be tested for when attempting to explain the causes of richness patterns, to avoid potential misinterpretations (e.g., high diversification rates associated with low-richness clades). Similarly, our results also provide some support for previous studies suggesting that variation in diversification rates might explain much of the variation in species richness among major clades, based on strong relationships between clade richness and diversification rates. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of a risk-based online mammography intervention on accuracy of perceived risk and mammography intentions.

PubMed

Seitz, Holli H; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N

2016-10-01

This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. 2918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (<1.5%; ≥1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) x 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk ≤1.5%. For women with a risk≤1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of a Risk-based Online Mammography Intervention on Accuracy of Perceived Risk and Mammography Intentions

PubMed Central

Seitz, Holli H.; Gibson, Laura; Skubisz, Christine; Forquer, Heather; Mello, Susan; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Armstrong, Katrina; Cappella, Joseph N.

2016-01-01

Objective This experiment tested the effects of an individualized risk-based online mammography decision intervention. The intervention employs exemplification theory and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion to improve the match between breast cancer risk and mammography intentions. Methods 2,918 women ages 35-49 were stratified into two levels of 10-year breast cancer risk (< 1.5%; ≥ 1.5%) then randomly assigned to one of eight conditions: two comparison conditions and six risk-based intervention conditions that varied according to a 2 (amount of content: brief vs. extended) × 3 (format: expository vs. untailored exemplar [example case] vs. tailored exemplar) design. Outcomes included mammography intentions and accuracy of perceived breast cancer risk. Results Risk-based intervention conditions improved the match between objective risk estimates and perceived risk, especially for high-numeracy women with a 10-year breast cancer risk <1.5%. For women with a risk < 1.5%, exemplars improved accuracy of perceived risk and all risk-based interventions increased intentions to wait until age 50 to screen. Conclusion A risk-based mammography intervention improved accuracy of perceived risk and the match between objective risk estimates and mammography intentions. Practice Implications Interventions could be applied in online or clinical settings to help women understand risk and make mammography decisions. PMID:27178707

Early Life Conditions, Adverse Life Events, and Chewing Ability at Middle and Later Adulthood

PubMed Central

Watt, Richard G.; Tsakos, Georgios

2014-01-01

Objectives. We sought to determine the extent to which early life conditions and adverse life events impact chewing ability in middle and later adulthood. Methods. Secondary analyses were conducted based on data from waves 2 and 3 of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), collected in the years 2006 to 2009 and encompassing information on current chewing ability and the life history of persons aged 50 years or older from 13 European countries. Logistic regression models were estimated with sequential inclusion of explanatory variables representing living conditions in childhood and adverse life events. Results. After controlling for current determinants of chewing ability at age 50 years or older, certain childhood and later life course socioeconomic, behavioral, and cognitive factors became evident as correlates of chewing ability at age 50 years or older. Specifically, childhood financial hardship was identified as an early life predictor of chewing ability at age 50 years or older (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval = 1.22, 2.06). Conclusions. Findings suggest a potential enduring impact of early life conditions and adverse life events on oral health in middle and later adulthood and are relevant for public health decision-makers who design strategies for optimal oral health. PMID:24625140

Salicylate-induced changes in auditory thresholds of adolescent and adult rats.

PubMed

Brennan, J F; Brown, C A; Jastreboff, P J

1996-01-01

Shifts in auditory intensity thresholds after salicylate administration were examined in postweanling and adult pigmented rats at frequencies ranging from 1 to 35 kHz. A total of 132 subjects from both age levels were tested under two-way active avoidance or one-way active avoidance paradigms. Estimated thresholds were inferred from behavioral responses to presentations of descending and ascending series of intensities for each test frequency value. Reliable threshold estimates were found under both avoidance conditioning methods, and compared to controls, subjects at both age levels showed threshold shifts at selective higher frequency values after salicylate injection, and the extent of shifts was related to salicylate dose level.

Association between leukocyte telomere length and bone mineral density in women 25-93 years of age.

PubMed

Nielsen, Barbara Rubek; Linneberg, Allan; Bendix, Laila; Harboe, Maria; Christensen, Kaare; Schwarz, Peter

2015-06-01

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and bone mineral density (BMD) are associated with health and mortality. Because osteoporosis is an age-related condition and LTL is considered to be a biomarker of aging, we hypothesized that shorter LTL could predict lower BMD. The aim of our study was to assess whether there is an association of LTL with BMD and to determine whether this possible association is independent of age. The BMDs of the lumbar spine (LS), femoral neck (FN) and total hip (TH) were evaluated in 460 women using DXA. LTL was analyzed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The women completed a health and lifestyle questionnaire. The associations were estimated by regression models that considered age, body mass index (BMI), menopause, physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking habits. We found a statistically significant unadjusted association between LTL and age (estimate and 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.003 (-0.005; -0.002)); and between BMI adjusted age and logarithmic transformed BMD. Estimates and 95% CI were as follows: LS: -0.13 (-0.26; -0.01); right TH: -0.44 (-0.53; -0.34); left TH: -0.38 (-0.48; -0.28); right FN: -0.57 (-0.67; -0.46) and left FN: -0.51 (-0.62; -0.40). There were no statistically significant associations between BMD and LTL (both logarithmically transformed) with or without age adjustments. The age-adjusted estimates and CI were as follows: LS: -0.10 (-0.71; 0.52); right TH: -0.13 (-0.66; 0.41); left TH: -0.13 (-0.67; 0.42); right FN: -0.03 (-0.58; 0.52) and left FN: 0.09 (-0.47; 0.66). In conclusion, we found no statistically significant associations between BMD and LTL, although the estimates of the crude associations were all positive, indicating hypothesis consistency; that shorter LTL predict lower BMD values. This positive association was no longer apparent after adjusting for age. As expected, age was statistically significantly associated with both telomere length and BMI adjusted BMD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age and Sex Variation In Prevalence Of Chronic Medical Conditions In Older Residents of U.S. Nursing Homes

PubMed Central

Moore, Kelly L.; Boscardin, W. John; Steinman, Michael A.; Schwartz, Janice B.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVES To investigate patterns in prevalences of chronic medical conditions over the agespan of long-term stay nursing home residents and between the sexes with data from the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). DESIGN Retrospective, cross-sectional study. SETTING U.S. nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS Nationally representative sample comprising 11,788 long-term stay residents (3003 (25%) men and 8785 women) aged 65 years or older. MEASUREMENTS Clinical Classifications Software (CCS) was used to group ICD-9 codes to identify the 20 most prevalent chronic medical conditions. SAS survey procedures were used to account for design effects of stratification and clustering to generate nationally representative estimates of prevalences of medical conditions. RESULTS Average age was 84 y, with women older than men (85 vs. 81, p=0.02) with 67% of women ages 80–95. Women required more ADL assistance. The most frequent chronic medical conditions were hypertension (53, 56%: men, women), dementia (45, 52%), depression (31, 37%), arthritis (26, 35%), diabetes mellitus (26, 23%), gastrointestinal reflux -GERD (23, 23%), atherosclerosis (24, 20%), congestive heart failure -CHF (18, 21%), cerebrovascular disease (24, 19%) and anemia (17, 20%). Sex differences in prevalences existed for all but constipation, GERD, and hypertension. Diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, and lipid disorders decreased with age in men and women. Atrial fibrillation, anemia, arthritis, CHF, and dementia, and thyroid disease increased with age in both men and women. Age-related patterns differed between the sexes for diabetes, hypertension, and Parkinson’s disease. CONCLUSION The profile of chronic medical conditions varies over the agespan of nursing home residents and differs between men and women. This knowledge should guide educational and care efforts in long-term care. PMID:22463062

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs

PubMed Central

Turner, Wendy C.; Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W. Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R.; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C.; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N.; Ganz, Holly H.; Turnbull, Peter C. B.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Getz, Wayne M.

2016-01-01

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1–2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways. PMID:27265371

Temporal resolution in children.

PubMed

Wightman, F; Allen, P; Dolan, T; Kistler, D; Jamieson, D

1989-06-01

The auditory temporal resolving power of young children was measured using an adaptive forced-choice psychophysical paradigm that was disguised as a video game. 20 children between 3 and 7 years of age and 5 adults were asked to detect the presence of a temporal gap in a burst of half-octave-band noise at band center frequencies of 400 and 2,000 Hz. The minimum detectable gap (gap threshold) was estimated adaptively in 20-trial runs. The mean gap thresholds in the 400-Hz condition were higher for the younger children than for the adults, with the 3-year-old children producing the highest thresholds. Gap thresholds in the 2,000-Hz condition were generally lower than in the 400-Hz condition and showed a similar age effect. All the individual adaptive runs were "adult-like," suggesting that the children were generally attentive to the task during each run. However, the variability of threshold estimates from run to run was substantial, especially in the 3-5-year-old children. Computer simulations suggested that this large within-subjects variability could have resulted from frequent, momentary lapses of attention, which would lead to "guessing" on a substantial portion of the trials.

Estimating the relative weights of visual and auditory tau versus heuristic-based cues for time-to-contact judgments in realistic, familiar scenes by older and younger adults.

PubMed

Keshavarz, Behrang; Campos, Jennifer L; DeLucia, Patricia R; Oberfeld, Daniel

2017-04-01

Estimating time to contact (TTC) involves multiple sensory systems, including vision and audition. Previous findings suggested that the ratio of an object's instantaneous optical size/sound intensity to its instantaneous rate of change in optical size/sound intensity (τ) drives TTC judgments. Other evidence has shown that heuristic-based cues are used, including final optical size or final sound pressure level. Most previous studies have used decontextualized and unfamiliar stimuli (e.g., geometric shapes on a blank background). Here we evaluated TTC estimates by using a traffic scene with an approaching vehicle to evaluate the weights of visual and auditory TTC cues under more realistic conditions. Younger (18-39 years) and older (65+ years) participants made TTC estimates in three sensory conditions: visual-only, auditory-only, and audio-visual. Stimuli were presented within an immersive virtual-reality environment, and cue weights were calculated for both visual cues (e.g., visual τ, final optical size) and auditory cues (e.g., auditory τ, final sound pressure level). The results demonstrated the use of visual τ as well as heuristic cues in the visual-only condition. TTC estimates in the auditory-only condition, however, were primarily based on an auditory heuristic cue (final sound pressure level), rather than on auditory τ. In the audio-visual condition, the visual cues dominated overall, with the highest weight being assigned to visual τ by younger adults, and a more equal weighting of visual τ and heuristic cues in older adults. Overall, better characterizing the effects of combined sensory inputs, stimulus characteristics, and age on the cues used to estimate TTC will provide important insights into how these factors may affect everyday behavior.

Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

1996-01-01

A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the timing of the last glacial maximum are of similar magnitude, adjustments for paleohydrologic conditions may be required for many such studies.

Age, temperature and pressure of metamorphism in the Tasriwine Ophiolite Complex, Sirwa, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samson, S. D.; Inglis, J.; Hefferan, K. P.; Admou, H.; Saquaque, A.

2013-12-01

Sm-Nd garnet-whole rock geochronology and phase equilbria modeling have been used to determine the age and conditions of regional metamorphism within the Tasriwine ophiolite complex,Sirwa, Morocco. Pressure and temperature estimates obtained using a NaCaKFMASHT phase diagram (pseudosection) and garnet core and rim compositions predict that garnet growth began at ~0.72GPa and ~615°C and ended at ~0.8GPa and ~640°C. A bulk garnet Sm-Nd age of 645.6 × 1.6 Ma, calculated from a four point isochron that combines whole rock, garnet full dissolution and two successively more aggressive partial dissolutions, provides a precise date for garnet formation and regional metamorphism. The age is nearly 20 million years younger than a previous age estimate of regional metamorphism of 663 × 14 Ma based upon a SHRIMP U-Pb date from rims on zircon from the Irri migmatite. The new data provide further constraints on the age and nature of regional metamorphism in the Anti-Atlas mountains and emphasizes that garnet growth during regional metamorphism may not necessarily coincide with magmatism/anatexis which predominate the signature witnessed by previous U-Pb studies. The ability to couple PT estimates for garnet formation with high precision Sm- Nd geochronology highlights the utility of garnet studies for uncovering the detailed metamorphic history of the Anti-Atlas mountain belt.

Examining the nonparametric effect of drivers' age in rear-end accidents through an additive logistic regression model.

PubMed

Ma, Lu; Yan, Xuedong

2014-06-01

This study seeks to inspect the nonparametric characteristics connecting the age of the driver to the relative risk of being an at-fault vehicle, in order to discover a more precise and smooth pattern of age impact, which has commonly been neglected in past studies. Records of drivers in two-vehicle rear-end collisions are selected from the general estimates system (GES) 2011 dataset. These extracted observations in fact constitute inherently matched driver pairs under certain matching variables including weather conditions, pavement conditions and road geometry design characteristics that are shared by pairs of drivers in rear-end accidents. The introduced data structure is able to guarantee that the variance of the response variable will not depend on the matching variables and hence provides a high power of statistical modeling. The estimation results exhibit a smooth cubic spline function for examining the nonlinear relationship between the age of the driver and the log odds of being at fault in a rear-end accident. The results are presented with respect to the main effect of age, the interaction effect between age and sex, and the effects of age under different scenarios of pre-crash actions by the leading vehicle. Compared to the conventional specification in which age is categorized into several predefined groups, the proposed method is more flexible and able to produce quantitatively explicit results. First, it confirms the U-shaped pattern of the age effect, and further shows that the risks of young and old drivers change rapidly with age. Second, the interaction effects between age and sex show that female and male drivers behave differently in rear-end accidents. Third, it is found that the pattern of age impact varies according to the type of pre-crash actions exhibited by the leading vehicle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The burden of mental disorders: a comparison of methods between the Australian burden of disease studies and the Global Burden of Disease study.

PubMed Central

Vos, T.; Mathers, C. D.

2000-01-01

The national and Victorian burden of disease studies in Australia set out to examine critically the methods used in the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the burden of mental disorders. The main differences include the use of a different set of disability weights allowing estimates in greater detail by level of severity, adjustments for comorbidity between mental disorders, a greater number of mental disorders measured, and modelling of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and bipolar disorder as chronic conditions. Uniform age-weighting in the Australian studies produces considerably lower estimates of the burden due to mental disorders in comparison with age-weighted disability-adjusted life years. A lack of follow-up data on people with mental disorders who are identified in cross-sectional surveys poses the greatest challenge in determining the burden of mental disorders more accurately. PMID:10885161

How much do preexisting chronic conditions contribute to age differences in health care expenditures after a work-related musculoskeletal injury?

PubMed

Smith, Peter M; Bielecky, Amber; Ibrahim, Selahadin; Mustard, Cameron; Scott-Marshall, Heather; Saunders, Ron; Beaton, Dorcas

2014-01-01

To estimate the contribution of preexisting chronic conditions on age differences in health care expenditures for the management of work-related musculoskeletal injuries in British Columbia. A secondary analysis of workers' compensation claims submitted over the 5-year period between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2006 (N = 55,827 claims among men and 32,141 claims among women). Path models examined the relationships between age and health care expenditures, and the extent to which age differences in health care expenditures were mediated by preexisting chronic conditions. Models were adjusted for individual, injury, occupational, and industrial covariates. The relationship between age and health care expenditures differed for men and women, with a stronger age gradient observed among men. Preexisting osteoarthritis and coronary heart disease were associated with elevated health care expenditures among men and women. Diabetes was associated with elevated health care expenditures among men only, and depression was associated with elevated health care expenditures among women only. The percentage of the age effect on health care expenditures that was mediated through preexisting chronic conditions increased from 12.4% among 25-34-year-old men (compared with 15-24 y) to 26.6% among 55+-year-old men; and 14.6% among 25-34-year-old women to 35.9% among women 55 and older. The results of this study demonstrate that differences in preexisting chronic conditions have an impact on the relationship between older age and greater health care expenditures after a work-related musculoskeletal injury. The differing prevalence of preexisting osteoarthritis, coronary heart disease, and to a lesser extent diabetes (among men) and depression (among women) across age groups explain a nontrivial proportion of the age effect in health care expenditures after injury. However, approximately two thirds or more of the age effect in health care expenditures remains unexplained.

Diagnosis-Based Risk Adjustment for Medicare Capitation Payments

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; Pope, Gregory C.; Iezzoni, Lisa I.; Ayanian, John Z.; Bates, David W.; Burstin, Helen; Ash, Arlene S.

1996-01-01

Using 1991-92 data for a 5-percent Medicare sample, we develop, estimate, and evaluate risk-adjustment models that utilize diagnostic information from both inpatient and ambulatory claims to adjust payments for aged and disabled Medicare enrollees. Hierarchical coexisting conditions (HCC) models achieve greater explanatory power than diagnostic cost group (DCG) models by taking account of multiple coexisting medical conditions. Prospective models predict average costs of individuals with chronic conditions nearly as well as concurrent models. All models predict medical costs far more accurately than the current health maintenance organization (HMO) payment formula. PMID:10172666

Stand age and climate drive forest carbon balance recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Besnard, Simon; Carvalhais, Nuno; Clevers, Jan; Herold, Martin; Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus

2016-04-01

Forests play an essential role in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, especially in the C exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Ecological disturbances and forest management are drivers of forest dynamics and strongly impact the forest C budget. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the exogenous and endogenous factors driving forest C recovery. Our analysis includes 68 forest sites in different climate zones to determine the relative influence of stand age and climate conditions on the forest carbon balance recovery. In this study, we only included forest regrowth after clear-cut stand replacement (e.g. harvest, fire), and afforestation/reforestation processes. We synthesized net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), the photosynthetic respiratory ratio (GPP to Re ratio), the ecosystem carbon use efficiency (CUE), that is NEP to GPP ratio, and CUEclimax, where GPP is derived from the climate conditions. We implemented a non-linear regression analysis in order to identify the best model representing the C flux patterns with stand age. Furthermore, we showed that each C flux have a non-linear relationship with stand age, annual precipitation (P) and mean annual temperature (MAT), therefore, we proposed to use non-linear transformations of the covariates for C fluxes'estimates. Non-linear stand age and climate models were, therefore, used to establish multiple linear regressions for C flux predictions and for determining the contribution of stand age and climate in forest carbon recovery. Our findings depicted that a coupled stand age-climate model explained 33% (44%, average site), 62% (76%, average site), 56% (71%, average site), 41% (59%, average site), 50% (65%, average site) and 36% (50%, average site) of the variance of annual NEP, GPP, Re, photosynthetic respiratory ratio, CUE and CUEclimax across sites, respectively. In addition, we showed that gross fluxes (e.g. GPP and Re) are mainly climatically driven with 54.2% (68.4%, average site) and 54.1% (71.0%, average site) of GPP and Re variability, respectively, explained by the sum of MAT and P. However, annual NEP, GPP to Re ratio and CUEclimax are affected by both forest stand age and climate conditions, in particular MAT. The key result is that forest stand age plays a crucial role in determining CUE (36.4% and 48.2% for all years per site and average site, respectively), while climate conditions have less effect on CUE (13.6% and 15.4% for all years per site and average site, respectively). These findings are relevant for the implementation of Earth system models and imply that information both on forest stand age and climate conditions are critical to improve the accuracy of global terrestrial C models's estimates.

Injury Rates in Age-Only Versus Age-and-Weight Playing Standard Conditions in American Youth Football

PubMed Central

Kerr, Zachary Y.; Marshall, Stephen W.; Simon, Janet E.; Hayden, Ross; Snook, Erin M.; Dodge, Thomas; Gallo, Joseph A.; Valovich McLeod, Tamara C.; Mensch, James; Murphy, Joseph M.; Nittoli, Vincent C.; Dompier, Thomas P.; Ragan, Brian; Yeargin, Susan W.; Parsons, John T.

2015-01-01

Background: American youth football leagues are typically structured using either age-only (AO) or age-and-weight (AW) playing standard conditions. These playing standard conditions group players by age in the former condition and by a combination of age and weight in the latter condition. However, no study has systematically compared injury risk between these 2 playing standards. Purpose: To compare injury rates between youth tackle football players in the AO and AW playing standard conditions. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Athletic trainers evaluated and recorded injuries at each practice and game during the 2012 and 2013 football seasons. Players (age, 5-14 years) were drawn from 13 recreational leagues across 6 states. The sample included 4092 athlete-seasons (AW, 2065; AO, 2027) from 210 teams (AW, 106; O, 104). Injury rate ratios (RRs) with 95% CIs were used to compare the playing standard conditions. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to estimate RRs adjusted for residual effects of age and clustering by team and league. There were 4 endpoints of interest: (1) any injury, (2) non–time loss (NTL) injuries only, (3) time loss (TL) injuries only, and (4) concussions only. Results: Over 2 seasons, the cohort accumulated 1475 injuries and 142,536 athlete-exposures (AEs). The most common injuries were contusions (34.4%), ligament sprains (16.3%), concussions (9.6%), and muscle strains (7.8%). The overall injury rate for both playing standard conditions combined was 10.3 per 1000 AEs (95% CI, 9.8-10.9). The TL injury, NTL injury, and concussion rates in both playing standard conditions combined were 3.1, 7.2, and 1.0 per 1000 AEs, respectively. In multivariate Poisson regression models controlling for age, team, and league, no differences were found between playing standard conditions in the overall injury rate (RRoverall, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4-2.6). Rates for the other 3 endpoints were also similar (RRNTL, 1.1 [95% CI, 0.4-3.0]; RRTL, 0.9 [95% CI, 0.4-1.9]; RRconcussion, 0.6 [95% CI, 0.3-1.4]). Conclusion: For the injury endpoints examined in this study, the injury rates were similar in the AO and AW playing standards. Future research should examine other policies, rules, and behavioral factors that may affect injury risk within youth football. PMID:26672778

Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

2016-06-01

The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

Fatal Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the United States, 1999-2007.

PubMed

Dahlgren, F Scott; Holman, Robert C; Paddock, Christopher D; Callinan, Laura S; McQuiston, Jennifer H

2012-04-01

Death from Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is preventable with prompt, appropriate treatment. Data from two independent sources were analyzed to estimate the burden of fatal RMSF and identify risk factors for fatal RMSF in the United States during 1999-2007. Despite increased reporting of RMSF cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, no significant changes in the estimated number of annual fatal RMSF cases were found. American Indians were at higher risk of fatal RMSF relative to whites (relative risk [RR] = 3.9), and children less than 10 years of age (RR=5.1) [corrected] and adults ≥ 70 years of age (RR = 3.0) were also at increased risk relative to other ages. Persons with cases of RMSF with an immunosuppressive condition were at increased risk of death (RR = 4.4). Delaying treatment of RMSF was also associated with increased deaths. These results may indicate a gap between recommendations and practice.

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

2012-01-01

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

EPA SSOAP Toolbox Application for Condition and Capacity Assessment of Wastewater Collection Systems - Paper

EPA Science Inventory

The nation’s sanitary sewer infrastructure is aging, with some sewers dating back more than 100 years. Nationwide, there are more than 19,500 municipal sanitary-sewer collection systems serving an estimated 150 million people and about 40,000 sanitary sewer overflow (SSO) events ...

EPA SSOAP Toolbox Application for Condition and Capacity Assessment of Wastewater Collection Systems

EPA Science Inventory

The Nation’s sanitary sewer infrastructure is aging, with some sewers dating back over 100 years. Nationwide, there are more than 19,500 municipal sanitary-sewer collection systems serving an estimated 150 million people and about 40,000 sanitary sewer overflow (SSO) events per ...

Advances in Sewer Condition and Capacity Assessment – Development and Applications of EPA SSOAP Toolbox

EPA Science Inventory

In the United States, sanitary sewer infrastructure is aging, with some sewers dating back over 100 years. Nationwide, there are more than 19,500 municipal sanitary-sewer collection systems serving an estimated 150 million people and about 40,000 sanitary sewer overflow (SSO) ev...

U.S. EPA Issues Technical Guides and Computer Tools for Sewer Condition and Capacity Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The nation's sanitary sewer infrastructure is aging, with some sewers more than100 years old. Nationwide, there are more than 19,500 municipal sanitary-sewer collection systems serving an estimated 150 million people and about 40,000 sanitary sewer overflow (SSO) events per year...

Hospitalizations for severe lower respiratory tract infections.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Adena H; Chen, Jufu; Reed, Carrie; Beavers, Suzanne; Callahan, David; Christensen, Deborah; Finelli, Lyn; Fry, Alicia M

2014-09-01

Hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) among children have been well characterized. We characterized hospitalizations for severe LRTI among children. We analyzed claims data from commercial and Medicaid insurance enrollees (MarketScan) ages 0 to 18 years from 2007 to 2011. LRTI hospitalizations were identified by the first 2 listed International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision discharge codes; those with ICU admission and/or receiving mechanical ventilation were defined as severe LRTI. Underlying conditions were determined from out- and inpatient discharge codes in the preceding year. We report insurance specific and combined rates that used both commercial and Medicaid rates and adjusted for age and insurance status. During 2007-2011, we identified 16797 and 12053 severe LRTI hospitalizations among commercial and Medicaid enrollees, respectively. The rates of severe LRTI hospitalizations per 100000 person-years were highest in children aged <1 year (commercial: 244; Medicaid: 372, respectively), and decreased with age. Among commercial enrollees, ≥ 1 condition increased the risk for severe LRTI (1 condition: adjusted relative risk, 2.68; 95% confidence interval, 2.58-2.78; 3 conditions: adjusted relative risk, 4.85; 95% confidence interval, 4.65-5.07) compared with children with no medical conditions. Using commercial/Medicaid combined rates, an estimated 31289 hospitalizations for severe LRTI occurred each year in children in the United States. Among children, the burden of hospitalization for severe LRTI is greatest among children aged <1 year. Children with underlying medical conditions are at greatest risk for severe LRTI hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Fertility conditions in Gondar, northwestern Ethiopia: an appraisal of current status.

PubMed

Haile, A

1990-01-01

In order to study current fertility conditions, this study examines the sociocultural, economic, and demographic characteristics of 734 women aged 15-55 in the Gondar administrative region of northwestern Ethiopia. Women over age 45 in the sample were found to have, on average, 7.27 pregnancies, 0.88 abortions, 6.39 children ever-born, 1.51 child deaths, and 4.88 live offspring. The total infertility rate was 8.5 percent, and the subfertility rate was 12.7 percent. Fertility levels in the region were relatively high, compared to other developing countries. Contraceptive use was estimated at 3.6 per 1,000 women (for ages 15-49). The need for more effective family planning services is strongly indicated. The study suggests that, among other goals, policy efforts should focus on the reduction of unintended conception and unwanted fertility.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

Are health inequalities rooted in the past? Income inequalities in metabolic syndrome decomposed by childhood conditions

PubMed Central

San Sebastian, Miguel; Ivarsson, Anneli; Weinehall, Lars; Gustafsson, Per E.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Early life is thought of as a foundation for health inequalities in adulthood. However, research directly examining the contribution of childhood circumstances to the integrated phenomenon of adult social inequalities in health is absent. The present study aimed to examine whether, and to what degree, social conditions during childhood explain income inequalities in metabolic syndrome in mid-adulthood. Methods: The sample (N = 12 481) comprised all 40- and 50-year-old participants in the Västerbotten Intervention Program in Northern Sweden 2008, 2009 and 2010. Measures from health examinations were used to operationalize metabolic syndrome, which was linked to register data including socioeconomic conditions at age 40–50 years, as well as childhood conditions at participant age 10–12 years. Income inequality in metabolic syndrome in middle age was estimated by the concentration index and decomposed by childhood and current socioeconomic conditions using decomposition analysis. Results: Childhood conditions jointed explained 7% (men) to 10% (women) of health inequalities in middle age. Adding mid-adulthood sociodemographic factors showed a dominant contribution of chiefly current income and educational level in both gender. In women, the addition of current factors slightly attenuated the contribution of childhood conditions, but with paternal income and education still contributing. In contrast, the corresponding addition in men removed all explanation attributable to childhood conditions. Conclusions: Despite that the influence of early life conditions to adult health inequalities was considerably smaller than that of concurrent conditions, the study suggests that early interventions against social inequalities potentially could reduce health inequalities in the adult population for decades to come. PMID:27744345

An Integrated, Observation-based System to Monitor Aboveground Forest Carbon Dynamics in Washington, Oregon, and California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. E.; Hughes, J.; Neeti, N.; Yang, Z.; Gregory, M.; Roberts, H.; Kane, V. R.; Powell, S. L.; Ohmann, J.

2016-12-01

Because carbon pools and fluxes on wooded landscapes are constrained by their type, age and health, understanding the causes and consequences of carbon change requires frequent observation of forest condition and of disturbance, mortality, and growth processes. As part of USDA and NASA funded efforts, we built empirical monitoring system that integrates time-series Landsat imagery, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data, small-footprint lidar data, and aerial photos to characterize key carbon dynamics in forested ecosystems of Washington, Oregon and California. Here we report yearly biomass estimates for every forested 30 by 30m pixel in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California from 1990 to 2010, including spatially explicit estimates of uncertainty in our yearly predictions. Total biomass at the ecoregion scale agrees well with estimates from FIA plot data alone, currently the only method for reliable monitoring in the forests of the region. Comparisons with estimates of biomass modeled from four small-footprint lidar acquisitions in overlapping portions of our study area show general patterns of agreement between the two types of estimation, but also reveal some disparities in spatial pattern potentially attributable to age and vegetation condition. Using machine-learning techniques based on both Landsat image time series and high resolution aerial photos, we then modeled the agent causing change in biomass for every change event in the region, and report the relative distribution of carbon loss attributable to natural disturbances (primarily fire and insect-related mortality) versus anthropogenic causes (forest management and development).

Epidemiology of bovine fascioliasis in the Nile Delta region of Egypt: Its prevalence, evaluation of risk factors, and its economic significance.

PubMed

El-Tahawy, Abdelgawad S; Bazh, Eman K; Khalafalla, Reda E

2017-10-01

This study focuses on the risk factors associated with the prevalence of Fasciola affecting cattle population in three provinces belonging to the Nile Delta of Egypt and to estimate the economic losses as a result of fascioliasis. From January 2015 to end of December 2015, records of 21 farms (4976 cattle) were analyzed to screen the prevalence of fascioliasis among cattle farms, to identify its associated risk factors and its economic impacts on Nile Delta region of Egypt. The overall prevalence of fascioliasis in the Nile Delta region of Egypt was 9.77%. The prevalence of fascioliasis was found to be statistically significantly associated with age, sex, breed, and type of farms. The highest prevalence was observed in <2 age group (10.91%), and the lowest was >3 age groups (8.35%). In terms of body condition scores, cattle with medium and poor conditions were associated with fascioliasis more than those with good body condition. Besides, cattle raised in organic farms were associated with lower risk of fascioliasis than those in conventional farms. The prevalence of fascioliasis was noted more prominent in districts with moderate temperatures and with relative humidity (>60%). The annual overall costs for fascioliasis were estimated to be 221.2 USD/cow due to the significant reduction in body weight, reduction in milk production, and the treatment costs for fascioliasis. The results provided could be helpful for improving the control and preventive strategies.

ASSESSMENT OF DYNAMIC PRA TECHNIQUES WITH INDUSTRY AVERAGE COMPONENT PERFORMANCE DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yadav, Vaibhav; Agarwal, Vivek; Gribok, Andrei V.

In the nuclear industry, risk monitors are intended to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration. Current risk monitors are limited in that they do not properly take into account the deteriorating states of plant equipment, which are unit-specific. Current approaches to computing risk monitors use probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, but the assessment is typically a snapshot in time. Living PRA models attempt to address limitations of traditional PRA models in a limited sense by including temporary changes in plant and system configurations. However, information on plant component health are not considered. Thismore » often leaves risk monitors using living PRA models incapable of conducting evaluations with dynamic degradation scenarios evolving over time. There is a need to develop enabling approaches to solidify risk monitors to provide time and condition-dependent risk by integrating traditional PRA models with condition monitoring and prognostic techniques. This paper presents estimation of system risk evolution over time by integrating plant risk monitoring data with dynamic PRA methods incorporating aging and degradation. Several online, non-destructive approaches have been developed for diagnosing plant component conditions in nuclear industry, i.e., condition indication index, using vibration analysis, current signatures, and operational history [1]. In this work the component performance measures at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) [2] are incorporated within the various dynamic PRA methodologies [3] to provide better estimates of probability of failures. Aging and degradation is modeled within the Level-1 PRA framework and is applied to several failure modes of pumps and can be extended to a range of components, viz. valves, generators, batteries, and pipes.« less

Motor-cognitive dual-task performance: effects of a concurrent motor task on distinct components of visual processing capacity.

PubMed

Künstler, E C S; Finke, K; Günther, A; Klingner, C; Witte, O; Bublak, P

2018-01-01

Dual tasking, or the simultaneous execution of two continuous tasks, is frequently associated with a performance decline that can be explained within a capacity sharing framework. In this study, we assessed the effects of a concurrent motor task on the efficiency of visual information uptake based on the 'theory of visual attention' (TVA). TVA provides parameter estimates reflecting distinct components of visual processing capacity: perceptual threshold, visual processing speed, and visual short-term memory (VSTM) storage capacity. Moreover, goodness-of-fit values and bootstrapping estimates were derived to test whether the TVA-model is validly applicable also under dual task conditions, and whether the robustness of parameter estimates is comparable in single- and dual-task conditions. 24 subjects of middle to higher age performed a continuous tapping task, and a visual processing task (whole report of briefly presented letter arrays) under both single- and dual-task conditions. Results suggest a decline of both visual processing capacity and VSTM storage capacity under dual-task conditions, while the perceptual threshold remained unaffected by a concurrent motor task. In addition, goodness-of-fit values and bootstrapping estimates support the notion that participants processed the visual task in a qualitatively comparable, although quantitatively less efficient way under dual-task conditions. The results support a capacity sharing account of motor-cognitive dual tasking and suggest that even performing a relatively simple motor task relies on central attentional capacity that is necessary for efficient visual information uptake.

A systematic analysis of global anemia burden from 1990 to 2010

PubMed Central

Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Naghavi, Mohsen; Wulf, Sarah K.; Johns, Nicole; Lozano, Rafael; Regan, Mathilda; Weatherall, David; Chou, David P.; Eisele, Thomas P.; Flaxman, Seth R.; Pullan, Rachel L.; Brooker, Simon J.; Murray, Christopher J. L.

2014-01-01

Previous studies of anemia epidemiology have been geographically limited with little detail about severity or etiology. Using publicly available data, we estimated mild, moderate, and severe anemia from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries, both sexes, and 20 age groups. We then performed cause-specific attribution to 17 conditions using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) 2010 Study. Global anemia prevalence in 2010 was 32.9%, causing 68.36 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 40.98 to 107.54) million years lived with disability (8.8% of total for all conditions [95% UI, 6.3% to 11.7%]). Prevalence dropped for both sexes from 1990 to 2010, although more for males. Prevalence in females was higher in most regions and age groups. South Asia and Central, West, and East sub-Saharan Africa had the highest burden, while East, Southeast, and South Asia saw the greatest reductions. Iron-deficiency anemia was the top cause globally, although 10 different conditions were among the top 3 in regional rankings. Malaria, schistosomiasis, and chronic kidney disease–related anemia were the only conditions to increase in prevalence. Hemoglobinopathies made significant contributions in most populations. Burden was highest in children under age 5, the only age groups with negative trends from 1990 to 2010. PMID:24297872

Using age on clothes size label to estimate weight in emergency paediatric patients.

PubMed

Elgie, Laura D; Williams, Andrew R

2012-10-01

To study formulae that estimate children's weight using their actual age. To determine whether using the age on their clothes size label in these formulae can estimate weight when their actual age is unknown. The actual age and age on the clothes labels of 188 children were inserted into formulae that estimate children's weight. These estimates were compared with their actual weight. Bland-Altman plots calculated the precision and accuracy of each of these estimates. In all formulae, using age on the clothes sizes label provided a more precise estimate than the child's actual age. In emergencies where a child's age is unknown, use of the age on their clothes label in weight-estimating formulae yields acceptable weight estimates. Even in situations where a child's age is known, the age on their clothes label may provide a more accurate and precise weight estimate than the actual age.

Social protection for all ages? Impacts of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program on child nutrition.

PubMed

Porter, Catherine; Goyal, Radhika

2016-06-01

We investigate the impact of a large-scale social protection scheme, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) in Ethiopia, on child nutritional outcomes. Children living in households that receive cash transfers should experience improved child nutrition. However, in the case of the PSNP, which for the majority of participants is a public works program, there are several potential threats to finding effects: first, without conditionality on child inputs, increased household income may not be translated into improved child nutrition. Second, the work requirement may impact on parental time, child time use and calories burned. Third, if there is a critical period for child human capital investment that closes before the age of 5 then children above this age may not see any improvement in medium-term nutritional outcomes, measured here as height-for-age. Using a cohort study that collected data both pre-and post-program implementation in 2002, 2006 and 2009, we exploit several novel aspects of the survey design to find estimates that can deal with non-random program placement. We present both matching and difference-in-differences estimates for the index children, as well as sibling-differences. Our estimates show an important positive medium-term nutritional impact of the program for children aged 5-15 that are comparable in size to Conditional Cash Transfer program impacts for much younger children. We show indicative evidence that the program impact on improved nutrition is associated with improved food security and reduced child working hours. Our robustness checks restrict the comparison group, by including only households who were shortlisted, but never received PSNP, and also exclude those who never received aid, thus identifying impact based on timing alone. We cannot rule out that the nutritional impact of the program is the same for younger and older children. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An estimate of the prevalence of epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis.

PubMed

Paul, Abigail; Adeloye, Davies; George-Carey, Rhiannon; Kolčić, Ivana; Grant, Liz; Chan, Kit Yee

2012-12-01

Epilepsy is a leading serious neurological condition worldwide and has particularly significant physical, economic and social consequences in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of epilepsy prevalence in this region and how this varies by age and sex so as to inform understanding of the disease characteristics as well as the development of infrastructure, services and policies. A parallel systematic analysis of Medline, Embase and Global Health returned 32 studies that satisfied pre-defined quality criteria. Relevant data was extracted, tabulated and analyzed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age-specific and overall burden of epilepsy. Active epilepsy was estimated to affect 4.4 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, whilst lifetime epilepsy was estimated to affect 5.4 million. The prevalence of active epilepsy peaks in the 20-29 age group at 11.5/1000 and again in the 40-49 age group at 8.2/1000. The lowest prevalence value of 3.1/1000 is seen in the 60+ age group. This binomial pattern is also seen in both men and women, with the second peak more pronounced in women at 14.6/1000. The high prevalence of epilepsy, especially in young adults, has important consequences for both the workforce and community structures. An estimation of disease burden would be a beneficial outcome of further research, as would research into appropriate methods of improving health care for and tackling discrimination against people with epilepsy.

Comparison of particle-tracking and lumped-parameter age-distribution models for evaluating vulnerability of production wells to contamination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberts, S.M.; Böhlke, J.K.; Kauffman, L.J.; Jurgens, B.C.

2012-01-01

Environmental age tracers have been used in various ways to help assess vulnerability of drinking-water production wells to contamination. The most appropriate approach will depend on the information that is available and that which is desired. To understand how the well will respond to changing nonpoint-source contaminant inputs at the water table, some representation of the distribution of groundwater ages in the well is needed. Such information for production wells is sparse and difficult to obtain, especially in areas lacking detailed field studies. In this study, age distributions derived from detailed groundwater-flow models with advective particle tracking were compared with those generated from lumped-parameter models to examine conditions in which estimates from simpler, less resource-intensive lumped-parameter models could be used in place of estimates from particle-tracking models. In each of four contrasting hydrogeologic settings in the USA, particle-tracking and lumped-parameter models yielded roughly similar age distributions and largely indistinguishable contaminant trends when based on similar conceptual models and calibrated to similar tracer data. Although model calibrations and predictions were variably affected by tracer limitations and conceptual ambiguities, results illustrated the importance of full age distributions, rather than apparent tracer ages or model mean ages, for trend analysis and forecasting.

Cumulative Expenditures under the DI, SSI, Medicare, and Medicaid Programs for a Cohort of Disabled Working-Age Adults

PubMed Central

Riley, Gerald F; Rupp, Kalman

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate cumulative DI, SSI, Medicare, and Medicaid expenditures from initial disability benefit award to death or age 65. Data Sources Administrative records for a cohort of new CY2000 DI and SSI awardees aged 18–64. Study Design Actual expenditures were obtained for 2000–2006/7. Subsequent expenditures were simulated using a regression-adjusted Markov process to assign individuals to annual disability benefit coverage states. Program expenditures were simulated conditional on assigned benefit coverage status. Estimates reflect present value of expenditures at initial award in 2000 and are expressed in constant 2012 dollars. Expenditure estimates were also updated to reflect benefit levels and characteristics of new awardees in 2012. Data Collection We matched records for a 10 percent nationally representative sample. Principal Findings Overall average cumulative expenditures are $292,401 through death or age 65, with 51.4 percent for cash benefits and 48.6 percent for health care. Expenditures are about twice the average for individuals first awarded benefits at age 18–30. Overall average expenditures increased by 10 percent when updated for a simulated 2012 cohort. Conclusions Data on cumulative expenditures, especially combined across programs, are useful for evaluating the long-term payoff of investments designed to modify entry to and exit from the disability rolls. PMID:25109322

Insights into the effects of tensile and compressive loadings on human femur bone.

PubMed

Havaldar, Raviraj; Pilli, S C; Putti, B B

2014-01-01

Fragile fractures are most likely manifestations of fatigue damage that develop under repetitive loading conditions. Numerous microcracks disperse throughout the bone with the tensile and compressive loads. In this study, tensile and compressive load tests are performed on specimens of both the genders within 19 to 83 years of age and the failure strength is estimated. Fifty five human femur cortical samples are tested. They are divided into various age groups ranging from 19-83 years. Mechanical tests are performed on an Instron 3366 universal testing machine, according to American Society for Testing and Materials International (ASTM) standards. The results show that stress induced in the bone tissue depends on age and gender. It is observed that both tensile and compression strengths reduces as age advances. Compressive strength is more than tensile strength in both the genders. The compression and tensile strength of human femur cortical bone is estimated for both male and female subjecting in the age group of 19-83 years. The fracture toughness increases till 35 years in male and 30 years in female and reduces there after. Mechanical properties of bone are age and gender dependent.

Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2010-01-01

Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

Health Care Expenditure among People with Disabilities: Potential Role of Workplace Health Promotion and Implications for Rehabilitation Counseling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karpur, Arun; Bruyere, Susanne M.

2012-01-01

Workplace health-promotion programs have the potential to reduce health care expenditures, especially among people with disabilities. Utilizing nationally representative survey data, the authors provide estimates for health care expenditures related to secondary conditions, obesity, and health behaviors among working-age people with disabilities.…

An "Instantaneous" Estimate of a Lifetime's Cognitive Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deary, Ian J.; Whalley, Lawrence J.; Crawford, John R.

2004-01-01

Change in cognitive functioning is an important aspect of human aging and a key outcome in many medical conditions. However, cognitive change can rarely be measured directly, since prior cognitive data do not exist for most people. We examined the criterion validity and one-year stability of the difference between National Adult Reading Test…

Responding to School Health Crises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gomes, Patricia; Smith, Mary

2007-01-01

Today's school administrators face an increasing array of duties. Potentially one of the most serious responsibilities is student health services. It is estimated that 20% to 30% of all school-aged children in the U.S. have a health condition that may require monitoring. A survey of 60 new teachers in a medium-sized school district in California…

Healthy Aging After Age 65: A Life-Span Health Production Function Approach.

PubMed

Ferdows, Nasim B; Jensen, Gail A; Tarraf, Wassim

2018-06-01

This article examines the determinants of healthy aging using Grossman's framework of a health production function. Healthy aging, sometimes described as successful aging, is produced using a variety of inputs, determined in early life, young adulthood, midlife, and later life. A healthy aging production function is estimated using nationally representative data from the 2010 and 2012 Health and Retirement Study on 7,355 noninstitutionalized seniors. Using a simultaneous equation mediation model, we quantify how childhood factors contribute to healthy aging, both directly and indirectly through their effects on mediating adult outcomes. We find that favorable childhood conditions significantly improve healthy aging scores, both directly and indirectly, mediated through education, income, and wealth. We also find that good health habits have positive effects on healthy aging that are larger in magnitude than the effects of childhood factors. Our findings suggest that exercising, maintaining proper weight, and not smoking are likely to translate into healthier aging.

Relationship Between Age, Tenure, and Disability Duration in Persons With Compensated Work-Related Conditions

PubMed Central

Besen, Elyssa; Young, Amanda E.; Gaines, Brittany; Pransky, Glenn

2016-01-01

Objective: The aim of the study was to examine the relationships among age, tenure, and the length of disability following a work-related injury/illness. Methods: This study utilized 361,754 administrative workers’ compensation claims. The relationships between age, tenure, and disability duration was estimated with random-effects models. Results: The age-disability duration relationship was stronger than the tenure-disability duration relationship. An interaction was observed between age and tenure. At younger ages, disability duration varied little based on tenure. In midlife, disability duration was greater for workers with lower tenure than for workers with higher tenure. At the oldest ages, disability duration increased as tenure increased. Conclusions: Findings indicate that age is a more important factor in disability duration than tenure; however, the relationship between age and disability duration varies based on tenure, suggesting that both age and tenure are important influences in the work-disability process. PMID:26645384

Relationship Between Age, Tenure, and Disability Duration in Persons With Compensated Work-Related Conditions.

PubMed

Besen, Elyssa; Young, Amanda E; Gaines, Brittany; Pransky, Glenn

2016-02-01

The aim of the study was to examine the relationships among age, tenure, and the length of disability following a work-related injury/illness. This study utilized 361,754 administrative workers' compensation claims. The relationships between age, tenure, and disability duration was estimated with random-effects models. The age-disability duration relationship was stronger than the tenure-disability duration relationship. An interaction was observed between age and tenure. At younger ages, disability duration varied little based on tenure. In midlife, disability duration was greater for workers with lower tenure than for workers with higher tenure. At the oldest ages, disability duration increased as tenure increased. Findings indicate that age is a more important factor in disability duration than tenure; however, the relationship between age and disability duration varies based on tenure, suggesting that both age and tenure are important influences in the work-disability process.

Does low birthweight influence the nutritional status of children at school age? A cohort study in northeast Brazil.

PubMed

de Jesus Machado Amorim, Rosemary; de Carvalho Lima, Marilia; Cabral de Lira, Pedro Israel; Emond, Alan Martin

2011-07-01

Birthweight is recognized to be a determinant of a full term infant's early growth pattern; however, few studies have explored whether this effect is sustained into school age, especially in developing countries. We have used a cohort study from North East Brazil to investigate factors determining the anthropometric status of eight-year-old children born at full-term with low or appropriate weight. A cohort of 375 full-term infants was recruited at birth in six maternity hospitals between 1993 and 1994, in a poor region of the interior of the State of Pernambuco. At the age of 8 years, 86 born with low birthweight and 127 with appropriate birthweight were traced. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to identify the net effect of socioeconomic conditions, maternal nutritional status and child factors on weight-for-age and height-for-age. An enter approach was used to estimate the contribution of different factors on child anthropometry. Birthweight had little influence on child nutritional status at school age. Maternal BMI and height together were the biggest contributors to variation in child weight-for-age (12.3%) and height-for-age (13.2%), followed by family socioeconomic conditions. Maternal height as a proxy of maternal constraint was the single factor that best explained the variation in both indices (6.2% for weight-for-age and 11.1% for height-for-age). Haemoglobin level measured at eight years made a small but significant contribution to variation in height-for-age (5.6%) and weight for age (1.4%). Maternal nutritional status, reflecting genetic inheritance and the poor socioeconomic conditions of this population, was the most important determinant of the nutritional status of children at school age, rather than birthweight. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

[The battery of tests for behavioral phenotyping of aging animals in the experiment].

PubMed

Gorina, Ya V; Komleva, Yu K; Lopatina, O L; Volkova, V V; Chernykh, A I; Shabalova, A A; Semenchukov, A A; Olovyannikova, R Ya; Salmina, A B

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study was to develop a battery of tests to study social and cognitive impairments for behavioral phenotyping of aging experimental animals with physiological neurodegeneration. Object of the study were outbred CD1 mice in the following groups: 1st group - 12-month old male mice (physiological aging); 2nd group - 2-month old male mice (control group). Social recognition test, elevated plus maze test (EPM), open field test, light-dark box test, and Fear conditioning protocol were used to estimate the neurological status of experimental animals. We found that aging male mice in a contrast to young ones have demonstrated lower social interest to female mice in the social recognition task. EPM and light-dark box tests showed increased level of anxiety in the group of aged mice comparing to the control group. Fear conditioning protocol revealed impairment of associative learning and memory in the group of aged mice, particularly, fear memory consolidation was dramatically suppressed. Analysis of behavioral factors, social interactions and anxiety level in the experimental mice has confirmed age-related neurodegeneration in the 1st group. We found that the most informative approach to identifying neurological impairments in aging mice (social interaction deficit, limitation of interests, increased level of anxiety) should be based on the open field test light-dark box test, and Fear conditioning protocol. Such combination allows obtaining new data on behavioral alterations in the age-associated of neurodegeneration and to develop novel therapeutic strategies for the treatment of age-related brain pathology.

Mechanical and Chemical Properties of Harvested Hypalon Cable Jacket Subjected to Accelerated Thermal Aging

DOE PAGES

Duckworth, Robert C.; Kidder, Michelle K.; Aytug, Tolga; ...

2018-02-27

We report that for nuclear power plants (NPPs) considering second license renewal for operation beyond 60 years, knowledge of long-term operation, condition monitoring, and viability for the reactor components including reactor pressure vessel, concrete structures, and cable systems is essential. Such knowledge will provide NPP owners/operators with a basis for predicting performance and estimating the costs associated with monitoring or replacement programs for the affected systems. For cable systems that encompass a wide variety of materials, manufacturers, and in-plant locations, accelerated aging of harvested cable jacket and insulation can provide insight into a remaining useful life and methods for monitoring.more » Accelerated thermal aging in air at temperatures between 80°C and 120°C was conducted on a multiconductor control rod drive mechanism cable manufactured by Boston Insulated Wire (BIW). The cable, which had been in service for over 30 years, was jacketed with Hypalon and insulated with ethylene propylene rubber. From elongation at break (EAB) measurements and supporting Arrhenius analysis of the jacket material, an activation energy of 97.84 kJ/mol was estimated, and the time to degradation, as represented by 50% EAB at the expected maximum operating temperature of 45°C, was estimated to be 80 years. These values were slightly below previous measurements on similar BIW Hypalon cable jacket and could be attributed to either in-service degradation or variations in material properties from production variations. Lastly, results from indenter modulus measurements and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy suggest possible markers that could be beneficial in monitoring cable conditions.« less

Mechanical and Chemical Properties of Harvested Hypalon Cable Jacket Subjected to Accelerated Thermal Aging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duckworth, Robert C.; Kidder, Michelle K.; Aytug, Tolga

We report that for nuclear power plants (NPPs) considering second license renewal for operation beyond 60 years, knowledge of long-term operation, condition monitoring, and viability for the reactor components including reactor pressure vessel, concrete structures, and cable systems is essential. Such knowledge will provide NPP owners/operators with a basis for predicting performance and estimating the costs associated with monitoring or replacement programs for the affected systems. For cable systems that encompass a wide variety of materials, manufacturers, and in-plant locations, accelerated aging of harvested cable jacket and insulation can provide insight into a remaining useful life and methods for monitoring.more » Accelerated thermal aging in air at temperatures between 80°C and 120°C was conducted on a multiconductor control rod drive mechanism cable manufactured by Boston Insulated Wire (BIW). The cable, which had been in service for over 30 years, was jacketed with Hypalon and insulated with ethylene propylene rubber. From elongation at break (EAB) measurements and supporting Arrhenius analysis of the jacket material, an activation energy of 97.84 kJ/mol was estimated, and the time to degradation, as represented by 50% EAB at the expected maximum operating temperature of 45°C, was estimated to be 80 years. These values were slightly below previous measurements on similar BIW Hypalon cable jacket and could be attributed to either in-service degradation or variations in material properties from production variations. Lastly, results from indenter modulus measurements and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy suggest possible markers that could be beneficial in monitoring cable conditions.« less

Age-Related Differences and Cognitive Correlates of Self-Reported and Direct Navigation Performance: The Effect of Real and Virtual Test Conditions Manipulation

PubMed Central

Taillade, Mathieu; N'Kaoua, Bernard; Sauzéon, Hélène

2016-01-01

The present study investigated the effect of aging on direct navigation measures and self-reported ones according to the real-virtual test manipulation. Navigation (wayfinding tasks) and spatial memory (paper-pencil tasks) performances, obtained either in real-world or in virtual-laboratory test conditions, were compared between young (n = 32) and older (n = 32) adults who had self-rated their everyday navigation behavior (SBSOD scale). Real age-related differences were observed in navigation tasks as well as in paper-pencil tasks, which investigated spatial learning relative to the distinction between survey-route knowledge. The manipulation of test conditions (real vs. virtual) did not change these age-related differences, which are mostly explained by age-related decline in both spatial abilities and executive functioning (measured with neuropsychological tests). In contrast, elderly adults did not differ from young adults in their self-reporting relative to everyday navigation, suggesting some underestimation of navigation difficulties by elderly adults. Also, spatial abilities in young participants had a mediating effect on the relations between actual and self-reported navigation performance, but not for older participants. So, it is assumed that the older adults carried out the navigation task with fewer available spatial abilities compared to young adults, resulting in inaccurate self-estimates. PMID:26834666

Age-Related Differences and Cognitive Correlates of Self-Reported and Direct Navigation Performance: The Effect of Real and Virtual Test Conditions Manipulation.

PubMed

Taillade, Mathieu; N'Kaoua, Bernard; Sauzéon, Hélène

2015-01-01

The present study investigated the effect of aging on direct navigation measures and self-reported ones according to the real-virtual test manipulation. Navigation (wayfinding tasks) and spatial memory (paper-pencil tasks) performances, obtained either in real-world or in virtual-laboratory test conditions, were compared between young (n = 32) and older (n = 32) adults who had self-rated their everyday navigation behavior (SBSOD scale). Real age-related differences were observed in navigation tasks as well as in paper-pencil tasks, which investigated spatial learning relative to the distinction between survey-route knowledge. The manipulation of test conditions (real vs. virtual) did not change these age-related differences, which are mostly explained by age-related decline in both spatial abilities and executive functioning (measured with neuropsychological tests). In contrast, elderly adults did not differ from young adults in their self-reporting relative to everyday navigation, suggesting some underestimation of navigation difficulties by elderly adults. Also, spatial abilities in young participants had a mediating effect on the relations between actual and self-reported navigation performance, but not for older participants. So, it is assumed that the older adults carried out the navigation task with fewer available spatial abilities compared to young adults, resulting in inaccurate self-estimates.

When bigger is not better: selection against large size, high condition and fast growth in juvenile lemon sharks.

PubMed

Dibattista, J D; Feldheim, K A; Gruber, S H; Hendry, A P

2007-01-01

Selection acting on large marine vertebrates may be qualitatively different from that acting on terrestrial or freshwater organisms, but logistical constraints have thus far precluded selection estimates for the former. We overcame these constraints by exhaustively sampling and repeatedly recapturing individuals in six cohorts of juvenile lemon sharks (450 age-0 and 255 age-1 fish) at an enclosed nursery site (Bimini, Bahamas). Data on individual size, condition factor, growth rate and inter-annual survival were used to test the 'bigger is better', 'fatter is better' and 'faster is better' hypotheses of life-history theory. For age-0 sharks, selection on all measured traits was weak, and generally acted against large size and high condition. For age-1 sharks, selection was much stronger, and consistently acted against large size and fast growth. These results suggest that selective pressures at Bimini may be constraining the evolution of large size and fast growth, an observation that fits well with the observed small size and low growth rate of juveniles at this site. Our results support those of some other recent studies in suggesting that bigger/fatter/faster is not always better, and may often be worse.

Communication Vulnerabilities in Working-age Australians with Musculoskeletal Conditions: A Cross-sectional Analysis.

PubMed

Lowe, Dianne B; Taylor, Michael J; Hill, Sophie J

2015-08-01

To estimate the prevalence of communication vulnerability (CV) and its association with various health measures among working-age Australians with musculoskeletal conditions (MSK). The various vulnerability characteristics may lead to inadequate communication between consumers and healthcare professionals. Prevalence of CV among 18-64 year olds, with or without MSK, was analyzed using the Australian Bureau of Statistics' National Health Survey 2007-08 data. Associations between CV and measures of health complexity (accumulating multimorbidity and risk factors) and health burden (poorer self-rated health, psychological distress, and pain restricting work) in the MSK population were estimated using logistic regression. Further analyses were conducted for each vulnerability characteristic to determine the degree of association (crude and adjusted) with measures of interest. CV were more prevalent in working-age Australians with MSK (65%) than those without (51%). Adjusted for age and sex among working-age Australians with at least 1 MSK, those with 1 or more CV were more likely to have multimorbidity [adjusted OR (aOR) = 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.2], lifestyle risk factors (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8), poorer self-rated health (aOR = 3.4, 95% CI 2.7-4.2), greater psychological distress (aOR = 2.9, 95% CI 2.3-3.7), and pain restricting employment (aOR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.1) compared with those without CV. For working-age people, there is an association between MSK and CV. For those with MSK, CV were associated with increased likelihood of health complexity and burden. These findings have policy and clinical relevance. Research is needed to determine whether interventions that address these specific CV characteristics reduce the burden of disease within these populations.

FRAILTY AND CONSTELLATIONS OF FACTORS IN AGING HIV-INFECTED AND UNINFECTED WOMEN - THE WOMEN'S INTERAGENCY HIV STUDY

PubMed Central

GUSTAFSON, D.R.; SHI, Q.; THURN, M.; HOLMAN, S.A.; MINKOFF, H.; COHEN, M.; PLANKEY, M.W.; HAVLIK, R.; SHARMA, A.; GANGE, S.; GANDHI, M.; MILAM, J.; HOOVER, D.

2016-01-01

Background Biological similarities are noted between aging and HIV infection. Middle-aged adults with HIV infection may present as elderly due to accelerated aging or having more severe aging phenotypes occurring at younger ages. Objectives We explored age-adjusted prevalence of frailty, a geriatric condition, among HIV+ and at risk HIV− women. Design Cross-sectional. Setting The Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS). Participants 2028 middle-aged (average age 39 years) female participants (1449 HIV+; 579 HIV−). Measurements The Fried Frailty Index (FFI), HIV status variables, and constellations of variables representing Demographic/health behaviors and Aging-related chronic diseases. Associations between the FFI and other variables were estimated, followed by stepwise regression models. Results Overall frailty prevalence was 15.2% (HIV+, 17%; HIV−, 10%). A multivariable model suggested that HIV infection with CD4 count<200; age>40 years; current or former smoking; income ≤$12,000; moderate vs low fibrinogen-4 (FIB-4) levels; and moderate vs high estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were positively associated with frailty. Low or moderate drinking was protective. Conclusions Frailty is a multidimensional aging phenotype observed in mid-life among women with HIV infection. Prevalence of frailty in this sample of HIV-infected women exceeds that for usual elderly populations. This highlights the need for geriatricians and gerontologists to interact with younger `at risk' populations, and assists in the formulation of best recommendations for frailty interventions to prevent early aging, excess morbidities and early death. PMID:26980368

Correlates of osteoporosis among Jewish and Arab women aged 45-74 in Israel: national women's health interview survey.

PubMed

Nitzan-Kaluski, Dorit; Chinich, Ayelet; Ifrah, Anneke; Merom, Dafna; Green, Manfred S

2003-01-01

To determine the prevalence and correlates of osteoporosis among middle-aged and elderly Jewish and Arab women in Israel. A cross-sectional study on a random sample of Israeli women, carried out through telephone interviews. Questions included physician-diagnosed osteoporosis, demographic and lifestyle variables, medical conditions, and present and past use of estrogen-containing medications. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from reported height and weight. A national population-based survey conducted from March through August 1998. A national random sample of 888 women aged 45-74. The overall prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis was estimated at 13.7%. The rates increased abruptly from about 5.8% at ages 45-59 to 19.6% at ages 60-64, and reached 27.7% at ages 70-74. Between ages 45-59, the rates were higher among Arab women, whereas in the older group they were higher among Jewish women. There was a marked increase following menopause. After adjustment for potential confounders, at ages 45-59, osteoporosis was positively associated with menopause and BMI, whereas at ages 60-74, it was positively associated with age and family history of osteoporosis, and negatively associated with BMI. The prevalence of physician-diagnosed osteoporosis in Israel among women aged 45-74 is estimated to be 13.7%, which is similar to that for the United States. The association of osteoporosis with risk factors is age-dependent, and in particular, age-BMI interaction on osteoporosis requires further investigation.

The Prevalence and Determinants of Using Traditional Chinese Medicine Among Middle-aged and Older Chinese Adults: Results From the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Liu, Tingting; Li, Xiang; Zou, Zhi-Yong; Li, Changwei

2015-11-01

Although traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is known as an integrative part of China's health care system, little is known on the prevalence and determinants of using TCM among the middle-aged and older Chinese population, especially among those with chronic conditions. The nationwide survey data of 17,708 Chinese adults aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were used to estimate the prevalence of TCM. SAS SURVEYLOGISTIC procedure was applied to identify factors associated with using TCM. Analysis took into account the complex survey design and nonresponse rate. The prevalence of using TCM was 19.3% (95% CI 18.4%-20.1%) among the overall participants and 24.5% (95% CI 23.4%-25.5%) among those with self-reported chronic conditions. Participants with stroke, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney diseases were the most frequent users of TCM to treat their conditions. Age, individual income, and family income were associated with TCM use; however, when further controlling for chronic diseases, these variables became nonsignificant. Besides TCM, 4.4% (3.8%-5.0%) and 4.6% (4.0%-5.2%) of the overall participants and those with chronic conditions, respectively, used other forms of complementary and alternative medicine. The prevalence of using TCM was high among the middle-aged and older Chinese population. The use of TCM was mainly driven by chronic conditions. The main conditions that patients used TCM to treat were stroke, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations between headache and stress, alcohol drinking, exercise, sleep, and comorbid health conditions in a Japanese population.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Masako; Yokoyama, Tetsuji; Funazu, Kazuo; Yamashita, Takeshi; Kondo, Shuji; Hosoai, Hiroshi; Yokoyama, Akira; Nakamura, Haruo

2009-06-01

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 12,988 subjects aged 20-79 years (5,908 men and 7,090 women) receiving health checkups at a Tokyo clinic. They filled out a self-administered structured questionnaire, and 5.4% of the men and 15.4% of the women reported having headaches. Younger subjects were more prone to having headaches. The likelihood of having headaches increased with stress level and decreased ability to relieve stress in both genders. There was an inverse dose-response relationship between having headaches and alcohol consumption, and less walking/exercise and sleep problems increased the likelihood of headaches in both genders. Headache sufferers of both genders were more likely to report multiple additional poor health conditions. A multivariate stepwise logistic analysis showed that age, self-estimated degree of stress, reported number of additional poor health conditions, and less alcohol consumption were independently correlated with having headaches. In conclusion, although women were more susceptible to headache, Japanese men and women in Tokyo shared factors associated with headache, including age, stress, having other poor health conditions, alcohol consumption, sleep, and exercise.

Modeling Gas and Gas Hydrate Accumulation in Marine Sediments Using a K-Nearest Neighbor Machine-Learning Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, W. T.; Runyan, T. E.; Palmsten, M.; Dale, J.; Crawford, C.

2016-12-01

Natural Gas (primarily methane) and gas hydrate accumulations require certain bio-geochemical, as well as physical conditions, some of which are poorly sampled and/or poorly understood. We exploit recent advances in the prediction of seafloor porosity and heat flux via machine learning techniques (e.g. Random forests and Bayesian networks) to predict the occurrence of gas and subsequently gas hydrate in marine sediments. The prediction (actually guided interpolation) of key parameters we use in this study is a K-nearest neighbor technique. KNN requires only minimal pre-processing of the data and predictors, and requires minimal run-time input so the results are almost entirely data-driven. Specifically we use new estimates of sedimentation rate and sediment type, along with recently derived compaction modeling to estimate profiles of porosity and age. We combined the compaction with seafloor heat flux to estimate temperature with depth and geologic age, which, with estimates of organic carbon, and models of methanogenesis yield limits on the production of methane. Results include geospatial predictions of gas (and gas hydrate) accumulations, with quantitative estimates of uncertainty. The Generic Earth Modeling System (GEMS) we have developed to derive the machine learning estimates is modular and easily updated with new algorithms or data.

Linking habitat quality with trophic performance of steelhead along forest gradients in the South Fork Trinity River Watershed, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Sarah G.; Duda, Jeffrey J.; Emlen, John M.; Hodgson, Garth R.; Beauchamp, David A.

2009-01-01

We examined invertebrate prey, fish diet, and energy assimilation in relation to habitat variation for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous rainbow trout) and rainbow trout in nine low-order tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River, northern California. These streams spanned a range of environmental conditions, which allowed us to use bioenergetics modeling to determine the relative effects of forest cover, stream temperature, season, and fish age on food consumption and growth efficiency. Evidence of seasonal shifts in reliance on aquatic versus terrestrial food sources was detected among forest cover categories and fish ages, although these categories were not robust indicators of O. mykiss condition and growth efficiency. Consumption estimates were generally less than 20% of maximum consumption, and fish lost weight in some streams during summer low-flow conditions when stream temperatures exceeded 15°C. Current 100-year climate change projections for California threaten to exacerbate negative growth patterns and may undermine the productivity of this steelhead population, which is currently not listed as endangered or threatened. To demonstrate the potential effect of global warming on fish growth, we ran three climate change scenarios in two representative streams. Simulated temperature increases ranging from 1.4°C to 5.5°C during the summer and from 1.5°C to 2.9C during the winter amplified the weight loss; estimated average growth for age-1 fish was 0.4–4.5 times lower than normal (low to high estimated temperature increase) in the warm stream and 0.05–0.8 times lower in the cool stream. We conclude that feeding rate and temperature during the summer currently limit the growth and productivity of steelhead and rainbow trout in low-order streams in the South Fork Trinity River basin and predict that climate change will have detrimental effects on steelhead growth as well as on macroinvertebrate communities and stream ecosystems in general.

The growth and population dynamics of seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in Suli Waters, Ambon Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupan, C. I.; Uneputty, Pr A.

2017-10-01

The objectives of the research were to determined growth of rhizome, age structure, recruitment rate, and mortality rate of Thalassia hemprichii. Data were collected by using reconstruction technique which the measurements were based on past growth history. The age of seagrass was based on plastochrone interval. The recruitment rate was estimated by age structure of living shoots while mortality rate was estimated by age structure of dead shoots. The research was conducted on coastal waters of Suli where divided into two stations with different substrates, namely mixed substrates of sand and mud (S1) and mixed substrates of sand and coral fragment (S2). The growth rate of horizontal rhizome ranged from 4.15-8.68 cm.year-1 whereas the growth rate of vertical rhizome was 1.11-1.16 cm.year-1. The average age of T. hemprichii varied between 3.22-4.15 years. The youngest shoots were found at age 0.38 years and the oldest shoots were 7.82 years. Distribution of age was polymodal which reflecting cohort. The recruitment rate ranged from 0.23-0.54 year-1. Otherwise, the mortality rate ranged from 0.21-0.26 year-1.Seagrass population of T. hemprichii in Suli Waters indicated an increasing condition which shown by higher recruitment rate than mortality rate.

Work Disability Associated with Cancer Survivorship and Other Chronic Conditions

PubMed Central

Short, Pamela Farley; Vasey, Joseph J.; BeLue, Rhonda

2014-01-01

Summary The long-term effects of cancer and its treatment on employment and productivity are a major concern for the 40% of cancer survivors in the U.S. who are working age. This study’s objectives were (1) to quantify the increase in work disability attributable to cancer in a cohort of adult survivors who were an average of 46 months post-diagnosis and (2) to compare disability rates in cancer survivors to individuals with other chronic conditions. Data from the Penn State Cancer Survivor Study (PSCSS) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were compared. The PSCSS sample included 647 survivors age 55–65, diagnosed at four medical centers in Pennsylvania and Maryland. There were 5988 similarly aged subjects without cancer in the HRS. Adjusted odds ratios for work disability were estimated for cancer survivorship, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, lung disease, and arthritis/rheumatism with multivariate logistic regression. Even for cancer-free survivors, the disability rate was significantly higher in comparison to adults with no chronic conditions (female OR=1.94; male OR=1.89). There were few significant differences between disability rates for cancer and other conditions. The elevated disability rate is another argument for viewing cancer survivorship as a chronic condition potentially requiring a broad range of psychosocial services. PMID:17429835

The Role of Age on Multisensory Bodily Experience: An Experimental Study with a Virtual Reality Full-Body Illusion.

PubMed

Serino, Silvia; Scarpina, Federica; Dakanalis, Antonios; Keizer, Anouk; Pedroli, Elisa; Castelnuovo, Gianluca; Chirico, Alice; Catallo, Valentina; di Lernia, Daniele; Riva, Giuseppe

2018-05-01

A growing body of evidence demonstrated that it is feasible to induce ownership over an artificial body to alter bodily experience. However, several uncharted aspects about full-body illusion applications need to be tackled before a complete exploitation of these methods in clinical practice. This work is devoted to explore possible individual age-related differences in shaping changes in body representations induced with a full-body illusion. A total of 40 women were divided into two different age groups according to the median of the variable age. Participants estimated the width of three different body parts (i.e., shoulders, abdomen, and hips) before the entire illusion was induced (baseline), and after the synchronous and the asynchronous conditions. Results revealed that 26-to-55-year-old participants were more resistant to changes induced by the bodily illusion, whereas 19-to-25-year-old participants underestimated their bodies after both conditions. The findings were discussed in terms of the literature exploring age differences in responses to bodily illusion, which could suggest a Bayesian mechanism underlying these individual differences.

Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

2008-01-01

Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Status and trends of prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Desorcie, Timothy J.; Kostich, Melissa Jean; Armenio, Patricia M.; Adams, Jean V.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center has conducted lake-wide surveys of the fish community in Lake Michigan each fall since 1973 using standard 12-m bottom trawls towed along contour at depths of 9 to 110 m at each of seven index transects. The resulting data on relative abundance, size and age structure, and condition of individual fishes are used to estimate various population parameters that are in turn used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. All seven established index transects of the survey were completed in 2013. The survey provides relative abundance and biomass estimates between the 5-m and 114-m depth contours of the lake (herein, lake-wide) for prey fish populations, as well as burbot, yellow perch, and the introduced dreissenid mussels. Lake-wide biomass of alewives in 2013 was estimated at 29 kilotonnes (kt, 1 kt = 1000 metric tonnes), which was more than three times the 2012 estimate. However, the unusually high standard error associated with the 2013 estimate indicated no significant increase in lake-wide biomass between 2012 and 2013. Moreover, the age distribution of alewives remained truncated with no alewife exceeding an age of 5. The population of age-1 and older alewives was dominated (i.e., 88%) by the 2010 and 2012 year-classes. Record low biomass was observed for deepwater sculpin (1.3 kt) and ninespine stickleback (0.004 kt) in 2013, while bloater (1.6 kt) and rainbow smelt (0.2 kt) biomasses remained at low levels. Slimy sculpin lake-wide biomass was 0.32 kt in 2013, marking the fourth consecutive year of a decline. The 2013 biomass of round goby was estimated at 10.9 kt, which represented the peak estimate to date. Burbot lake-wide biomass (0.4 kt in 2013) has remained below 3 kt since 2001. Numeric density of age-0 yellow perch (i.e., < 100 mm) was only 1 fish per ha, which is indicative of a relatively poor year-class. Lake-wide biomass estimate of dreissenid mussels in 2013 was 23.2 kt. Overall, the total lake-wide prey fish biomass estimate (sum of alewife, bloater, rainbow smelt, deepwater sculpin, slimy sculpin, round goby, and ninespine stickleback) in 2013 was 43 kt, with alewives and round gobies constituting 92% of this total.

Severity of illness and ambulatory care-sensitive conditions.

PubMed

Yuen, Elaine J

2004-09-01

This study describes how severity of illness may refine the definition of ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, or ACSCs. Hospital discharge abstract data from Philadelphia were combined with census data to develop population-based adjusted rates of hospitalization for diabetes and asthma, two ACSCs. By stratifying ACSC hospitalization by severity of illness, variations were observed by age, race, and gender. Minority groups may be at higher risk for less access to outpatient primary care and were observed to have higher rates of more severely ill, Stage 3 hospitalization. Geographic map displays indicated wide ranges of age-sex-adjusted rates for high-severity hospitalization in the five-county Philadelphia region. This refined ACSC measure may help to identify specific groups and clinical conditions within a population to assist health care planners estimate health care resources such as facilities, manpower, and programs, as well as to evaluate their outcomes.

Relationships among condition indices, feeding and growth of walleye in Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, K.J.; Margraf, F.J.

2006-01-01

Condition indices are often used as surrogates of fish health, growth, and feeding and to compare ecological well-being among fish populations. In an effort to identify easily measured indices, growth and food consumption were compared with gonadal-somatic index, liver-somatic index (LSI), fat-somatic index and relative weight (Wr) for ages 1-3 walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill), in Lake Erie from 1986 to 1988. The LSI and Wr were significantly correlated with growth rate or food consumption, but correlations were too small to be considered biologically meaningful. Furthermore, no consistent relationships between condition indices and growth or consumption were found among combinations of fish age and season. None of the indices are considered reliable surrogates for more laborious estimates of growth and food consumption for Lake Erie walleye. Significant relationships between Wr and relative abundance of key prey species warrant further investigation. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Impact of Diabetes on the Labour Force Participation, Savings and Retirement Income of Workers Aged 45-64 Years in Australia

PubMed Central

Schofield, Deborah; Cunich, Michelle; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E.; Shrestha, Rupendra; Callander, Emily; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert

2015-01-01

Background Diabetes is a debilitating and costly condition. The costs of reduced labour force participation due to diabetes can have severe economic impacts on individuals by reducing their living standards during working and retirement years. Methods A purpose-built microsimulation model of Australians aged 45-64 years in 2010, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to estimate the lost savings at age 65 due to premature exit from the labour force because of diabetes. Regression models were used to examine the differences between the projected savings and retirement incomes of people at age 65 for those currently working full or part time with no chronic health condition, full or part time with diabetes, and people not in the labour force due to diabetes. Results All Australians aged 45-65 years who are employed full time in 2010 will have accumulated some savings at age 65; whereas only 90.5% of those who are out of the labour force due to diabetes will have done so. By the time they reach age 65, those who retire from the labour force early due to diabetes have a median projected savings of less than $35,000. This is far lower than the median value of total savings for those who remained in the labour force full time with no chronic condition, projected to have $638,000 at age 65. Conclusions Not only does premature retirement due to diabetes limit the immediate income available to individuals with this condition, but it also reduces their long-term financial capacity by reducing their accumulated savings and the income these savings could generate in retirement. Policies designed to support the labour force participation of those with diabetes, or interventions to prevent the onset of the disease itself, should be a priority to preserve living standards comparable with others who do not suffer from this condition. PMID:25706941

Improved protocol and data analysis for accelerated shelf-life estimation of solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Waterman, Kenneth C; Carella, Anthony J; Gumkowski, Michael J; Lukulay, Patrick; MacDonald, Bruce C; Roy, Michael C; Shamblin, Sheri L

2007-04-01

To propose and test a new accelerated aging protocol for solid-state, small molecule pharmaceuticals which provides faster predictions for drug substance and drug product shelf-life. The concept of an isoconversion paradigm, where times in different temperature and humidity-controlled stability chambers are set to provide a critical degradant level, is introduced for solid-state pharmaceuticals. Reliable estimates for temperature and relative humidity effects are handled using a humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation, where temperature and relative humidity are assumed to be orthogonal. Imprecision is incorporated into a Monte-Carlo simulation to propagate the variations inherent in the experiment. In early development phases, greater imprecision in predictions is tolerated to allow faster screening with reduced sampling. Early development data are then used to design appropriate test conditions for more reliable later stability estimations. Examples are reported showing that predicted shelf-life values for lower temperatures and different relative humidities are consistent with the measured shelf-life values at those conditions. The new protocols and analyses provide accurate and precise shelf-life estimations in a reduced time from current state of the art.

CHANGE IN PREVALENCE OF CHRONIC CONDITIONS BETWEEN CHILDHOOD AND ADOLESCENCE AMONG EXTREMELY LOW BIRTH WEIGHT CHILDREN

PubMed Central

Hack, Maureen; Schluchter, Mark; Andreias, Laura; Margevicius, Seunghee; Taylor, H. Gerry; Drotar, Dennis; Cuttler, Leona

2013-01-01

Context Extremely low birth weight (ELBW, <1kg) children have high rates of chronic conditions during childhood. Information on their trajectory of health during the critical period of adolescence is needed for health care planning. Objective To examine changes in rates of chronic conditions between age 8 and 14 years among ELBW compared to normal birth weight (NBW) controls. Design, Setting and Participants Cohort study conducted from 2004 through2009 of 181 ELBW children (weight <1kg) and 115 NBW controls of similar sociodemographic status born 1992 through 1995 in Cleveland, Ohio. Main Outcome Measures Rates of chronic conditions overall (measured with the revised Questionnaire for Identifying Children with Chronic Conditions) and rates of asthma and obesity. Results The overall rates of chronic conditions did not change significantly between ages 8 and 14 years among ELBW children (75% at age 8 years vs 74% at age 14 years) or NBW controls (37% at 8 years vs 47% at age 14 years). In generalized estimating equations logistic regression, adjusting for sociodemographic status, sex and race, ELBW continued to have higher rates of chronic conditions than NBW controls at age 14 years (74% vs 47%, respectively adjusted odds ratio [AOR],2.8; 95% Confidence Interval {CI},1.7 to 4.6). Rates of asthma requiring medication did not change between 8 and 14 years among ELBW children (23% at both ages), but increased among NBW children from 8% at age 8 years to 17% at age 14 years (p=0.002). Differences in rates of asthma between ELBW and NBW children were no longer significant at the age of 14 years (23% vs 17%, respectively; AOR,1.5; [95%CI,0.8 to 2.8]. Mean z scores for body mass index increased in ELBW children from 0.06 at age 8 yesrs to 0.38 at age 14 years(p<0.001) and rates of obesity increased from 12% at age 8 years to 19% at age 14 years (p=0.02). However, the scores and rates did not change among NBW controls such that at the age of 14 years the differences between ELBW and NBW children in mean z-scores for body mass index (0.38 vs 0.56, respectively; adjusted mean difference −0.2; 95% CI, −0.5 to 0.1) or rates of obesity (19% vs 20%, respectively; AOR,1.1 [95%CI, 0.6to 2.0] were not significant.. Conclusions Among ELBW children rates of overall chronic conditions and asthma did not change between the ages of 8 and 14 years but the rates of obesityincreased. Compared with NBW controls, the rates of chronic conditions were higher but there were no significant differences in the rates of asthma or obesity. PMID:21791688

Contribution of excessive alcohol consumption to deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States.

PubMed

Stahre, Mandy; Roeber, Jim; Kanny, Dafna; Brewer, Robert D; Zhang, Xingyou

2014-06-26

Excessive alcohol consumption is a leading cause of premature mortality in the United States. The objectives of this study were to update national estimates of alcohol-attributable deaths (AAD) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States, calculate age-adjusted rates of AAD and YPLL in states, assess the contribution of AAD and YPLL to total deaths and YPLL among working-age adults, and estimate the number of deaths and YPLL among those younger than 21 years. We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application for 2006-2010 to estimate total AAD and YPLL across 54 conditions for the United States, by sex and age. AAD and YPLL rates and the proportion of total deaths that were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption among working-age adults (20-64 y) were calculated for the United States and for individual states. From 2006 through 2010, an annual average of 87,798 (27.9/100,000 population) AAD and 2.5 million (831.6/100,000) YPLL occurred in the United States. Age-adjusted state AAD rates ranged from 51.2/100,000 in New Mexico to 19.1/100,000 in New Jersey. Among working-age adults, 9.8% of all deaths in the United States during this period were attributable to excessive drinking, and 69% of all AAD involved working-age adults. Excessive drinking accounted for 1 in 10 deaths among working-age adults in the United States. AAD rates vary across states, but excessive drinking remains a leading cause of premature mortality nationwide. Strategies recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force can help reduce excessive drinking and harms related to it.

Bayes plus Brass: Estimating Total Fertility for Many Small Areas from Sparse Census Data

PubMed Central

Schmertmann, Carl P.; Cavenaghi, Suzana M.; Assunção, Renato M.; Potter, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Small-area fertility estimates are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. Such estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required, they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas, and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step algorithm for estimating total fertility in such circumstances, and we illustrate by applying the method to 2000 Brazilian Census data for over five thousand municipalities. Our proposed algorithm first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods, and then applies a new variant of Brass’s P/F parity correction procedure that is robust under conditions of rapid fertility decline. PMID:24143946

Pseudobulbar affect: an under-recognized and under-treated neurological disorder.

PubMed

Work, Susan S; Colamonico, Jennifer A; Bradley, Walter G; Kaye, Randall E

2011-07-01

Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurologic syndrome of emotional affect disinhibition, characterized by uncontrollable, exaggerated, and often inappropriate emotional outbursts, which may cause severe distress, embarrassment, and social dysfunction. However, the US prevalence of PBA remains unknown. An online survey was conducted primarily to estimate the US prevalence of PBA in patients with the six most commonly associated conditions: Alzheimer's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, stroke, and traumatic brain injury. Invitations to participate were randomly sent online to adults (aged ≥ 18 years) registered in the Harris Poll Online Panel who were patients or belonged to a household with a patient diagnosed with one of the six conditions (identified through previous screening by Harris Interactive). Participants were screened for PBA using the Pathological Laughing and Crying Scale (PLACS) and the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS). PBA estimates were made using a cut-off score of ≥ 13 on the PLACS and two different cut-off thresholds on the CNS-LS, a lower one of ≥ 13 and a more rigorous one of ≥ 21. Existing US prevalence data for the six underlying conditions were used to estimate US prevalence of PBA. Of 38,000 individuals invited to participate, 8876 responded (23%) and 2318 (26%) completed the questionnaire. Mean prevalence of PBA across all six conditions was 10.1%, 9.4%, and 37.5% with the PLACS ≥ 13, CNS-LS ≥ 21, and CNS-LS ≥ 13 thresholds, respectively. Using disease population estimates from government agencies and professional organizations, the estimated US population with PBA ranged from 1.8 to 7.1 million. Among patients who discussed their laughing and/or crying episodes with a physician, 41% were diagnosed, and about half received a medication for their episodes. The overall prevalence of PBA was estimated to be about 10% across these commonly associated underlying neurological conditions and appears to be under-recognized.

Incidence of Tube Feeding in 7174 Newly Admitted Nursing Home Residents With and Without Dementia.

PubMed

Schulze, Jana; Mazzola, Rosa; Hoffmann, Falk

2016-02-01

Tube feeding is a common form of long-term nutritional support, especially for nursing home residents, of whom many have dementia. Estimating the incidence of feeding tube placement in nursing home residents with and without dementia. Using claims data, we studied a cohort of newly admitted nursing home residents aged 65 years and older between 2004 and 2009. Analyses were stratified by dementia. We estimated incidence rates and performed multivariate Cox regression analyses. The study cohort included 7174 nursing home residents. Over a mean follow-up of 1.3 years, 273 people received a feeding tube. The incidence per 1000 person-years was 28.4, with higher estimates for patients with dementia. When adjusting for age, sex, and level of care as a time-dependent covariate, influence of dementia decreased to a nonsignificant hazard ratio. It seems that not dementia itself but the overall clinical condition might be a predictor of tube feeding placement. © The Author(s) 2015.

Ambient air pollution and autism in Los Angeles county, California.

PubMed

Becerra, Tracy Ann; Wilhelm, Michelle; Olsen, Jørn; Cockburn, Myles; Ritz, Beate

2013-03-01

The prevalence of autistic disorder (AD), a serious developmental condition, has risen dramatically over the past two decades, but high-quality population-based research addressing etiology is limited. We studied the influence of exposures to traffic-related air pollution during pregnancy on the development of autism using data from air monitoring stations and a land use regression (LUR) model to estimate exposures. Children of mothers who gave birth in Los Angeles, California, who were diagnosed with a primary AD diagnosis at 3-5 years of age during 1998-2009 were identified through the California Department of Developmental Services and linked to 1995-2006 California birth certificates. For 7,603 children with autism and 10 controls per case matched by sex, birth year, and minimum gestational age, birth addresses were mapped and linked to the nearest air monitoring station and a LUR model. We used conditional logistic regression, adjusting for maternal and perinatal characteristics including indicators of SES. Per interquartile range (IQR) increase, we estimated a 12-15% relative increase in odds of autism for ozone [odds ratio (OR) = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.19; per 11.54-ppb increase] and particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.24; per 4.68-μg/m3 increase) when mutually adjusting for both pollutants. Furthermore, we estimated 3-9% relative increases in odds per IQR increase for LUR-based nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide exposure estimates. LUR-based associations were strongest for children of mothers with less than a high school education. Measured and estimated exposures from ambient pollutant monitors and LUR model suggest associations between autism and prenatal air pollution exposure, mostly related to traffic sources.

Prognosis and Conditional Disease-Free Survival Among Patients With Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Kurta, Michelle L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Moysich, Kirsten B.; McDonough, Kathleen; Bertolet, Marnie; Weissfeld, Joel L.; Catov, Janet M.; Modugno, Francesmary; Bunker, Clareann H.; Ness, Roberta B.; Diergaarde, Brenda

2014-01-01

Purpose Traditional disease-free survival (DFS) does not reflect changes in prognosis over time. Conditional DFS accounts for elapsed time since achieving remission and may provide more relevant prognostic information for patients and clinicians. This study aimed to estimate conditional DFS among patients with ovarian cancer and to evaluate the impact of patient characteristics. Patients and Methods Patients were recruited as part of the Hormones and Ovarian Cancer Prediction case-control study and were included in the current study if they had achieved remission after a diagnosis of cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, or peritoneum (N = 404). Demographic and lifestyle information was collected at enrollment; disease, treatment, and outcome information was abstracted from medical records. DFS was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional DFS estimates were computed using cumulative DFS estimates. Results Median DFS was 2.54 years (range, 0.03-9.96 years) and 3-year DFS was 48.2%. The probability of surviving an additional 3 years without recurrence, conditioned on having already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after remission, was 63.8%, 80.5%, 90.4%, 97.0%, and 97.7%, respectively. Initial differences in 3-year DFS at time of remission between age, stage, histology, and grade groups decreased over time. Conclusion DFS estimates for patients with ovarian cancer improved dramatically over time, in particular among those with poorer initial prognoses. Conditional DFS is a more relevant measure of prognosis for patients with ovarian cancer who have already achieved a period of remission, and time elapsed since remission should be taken into account when making follow-up care decisions. PMID:25403208

Estimating the influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza in clinical settings: a hospital-based case-control study with a rapid diagnostic test in Japan.

PubMed

Suzuki, Motoi; Yoshimine, Hiroyuki; Harada, Yoshitaka; Tsuchiya, Naho; Shimada, Ikumi; Ariyoshi, Koya; Inoue, Kenichiro

2013-01-01

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are usually conducted by specialized agencies and require time and resources. The objective of this study was to estimate the influenza VE against medically attended influenza using a test-negative case-control design with rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDT) in a clinical setting. A prospective study was conducted at a community hospital in Nagasaki, western Japan during the 2010/11 influenza season. All outpatients aged 15 years and older with influenza-like illnesses (ILI) who had undergone RIDT were enrolled. A test-negative case-control design was applied to estimate the VEs: the cases were ILI patients with positive RIDT results and the controls were ILI patients with negative RIDT results. Information on patient characteristics, including vaccination histories, was collected using questionnaires and medical records. Between December 2010 and April 2011, 526 ILI patients were tested with RIDT, and 476 were eligible for the analysis. The overall VE estimate against medically attended influenza was 47.6%, after adjusting for the patients' age groups, presence of chronic conditions, month of visit, and smoking and alcohol use. The seasonal influenza vaccine reduced the risk of medically attended influenza by 60.9% for patients less than 50 years of age, but a significant reduction was not observed for patients 50 years of age and older. A sensitivity analysis provided similar figures. The test-negative case-control study using RIDT provided moderate influenza VE consistent with other reports. Utilizing the commonly used RIDT to estimate VE provides rapid assessment of VE; however, it may require validation with more specific endpoint.

Reconstructing populations dynamics: Mortality and recruitment of the southern geoduck Panopea abbreviata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidman, Paula C.; Morsan, Enrique

2018-05-01

In the development of management measures for sustainable fisheries, estimating the natural mortality rate and recruitment are fundamental. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the southern geoduck, Panopea abbreviata, a long-lived clam that forms spatially disjunct subpopulations, supports an unregulated fishery. In this study, we estimate natural mortality. We studied the age structure of beds within the northern Patagonia gulfs, San Matías Gulf (SMG) and San Jose Gulf (SJG), and we estimated a time series for back-reconstructed recruitment to explore spatial coherence in relation to local oceanographic conditions and to elucidate its population dynamics. We constructed a cumulative frequency distribution of the age of dead shells collected and used the exponential and Weibull models to model mortality. Live geoducks were sampled from six populations between 2000 and 2006. Age-frequency distributions and mortality models were used to back-calculate the time series of recruitment for each population. The recruitment time series was analysed using continuous wavelet transform. The value of natural mortality estimated by the exponential model was 0.054 years-1, whereas those estimated by the Weibull model were α = 0.00085 years-1 and β = 2.1. For the latter, M values for cohorts were 0.01 for 10 years, 0.02 for 20 years, 0.04 for 30 years and 0.05 for 40 years. The Weibull model was observed to be the best fit to the data. The natural mortality rate of P. abbreviata estimated in this study was lower than that estimated in a previous work for populations from SMG. The back-calculated time series for recruitment demonstrated considerable yearly variation, suggesting that local conditions have an important role in recruitment regulation. At a decadal temporal scale, a clear increasing recruitment trend was evident over the last 20 years in all populations. Populations in SMG were settled >60 years ago. In contrast, no individuals older than 30 years were observed in the populations from SJG. P. abbreviata has several characteristics, such as longevity and low instantaneous natural mortality rate, which require attention in any resource planning. However, this species also has positive characteristics for fishery development, as historical recruitment trends indicate that populations are expanding and are part of a widely distributed metapopulation, suggesting that sustainable exploitation is possible.

Evidence-based design recommendations for prevalence studies on multimorbidity: improving comparability of estimates.

PubMed

Holzer, Barbara M; Siebenhuener, Klarissa; Bopp, Matthias; Minder, Christoph E

2017-03-07

In aging populations, multimorbidity causes a disease burden of growing importance and cost. However, estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity (prevMM) vary widely across studies, impeding valid comparisons and interpretation of differences. With this study we pursued two research objectives: (1) to identify a set of study design and demographic factors related to prevMM, and (2) based on (1), to formulate design recommendations for future studies with improved comparability of prevalence estimates. Study data were obtained through systematic review of the literature. UsingPubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Google Scholar, we looked for articles with the terms "multimorbidity," "comorbidity," "polymorbidity," and variations of these published in English or German in the years 1990 to 2011. We selected quantitative studies of the prevalence of multimorbidity (two or more chronic medical conditions) with a minimum sample size of 50 and a study population with a majority of Caucasians. Our database consisted of prevalence estimates in 108 age groups taken from 45 studies. To assess the effects of study design variables, we used meta regression models. In 58% of the studies, there was only one age group, i.e., no stratification by age. The number of persons per age group ranged from 136 to 5.6 million. Our analyses identified the following variables as highly significant: "mean age," "number of age groups", and "data reporting quality" (all p < 0.0001). "Setting," "disease classification," and "number of diseases in the classification" were significant (0.01 < p ≤ 0.03), and "data collection period" and "data source" were non-significant. A separate analysis showed that prevMM was significantly higher in women than men (sign test, p = 0.0015). Comparable prevalence estimates are urgently needed for realistic description of the magnitude of the problem of multimorbidity. Based on the results of our analyses of variables affecting prevMM, we make some design recommendations. Our suggestions were guided by a pragmatic approach and aimed at facilitating the implementation of a uniform methodology. This should aid progress towards a more uniform operationalization of multimorbidity.

Validation of accelerated ageing of Thales rotary Stirling cryocoolers for the estimation of MTTF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seguineau, C.,; Cauquil, J.-M.; Martin, J.-Y.; Benschop, T.

2016-05-01

The cooled IR detectors are used in a wide range of applications. Most of the time, the cryocoolers are one of the components dimensioning the lifetime of the system. The current market needs tend to reliability figures higher than 15,000hrs in "standard conditions". Field returns are hardly useable mostly because of the uncertain environmental conditions of use, or the differences in user profiles. A previous paper explains how Thales Cryogenics has developed an approach based on accelerated ageing and statistical analysis [1]. The aim of the current paper is to compare results obtained on accelerated ageing on one side, and on the other side, specific field returns where the conditions of use are well known. The comparison between prediction and effective failure rate is discussed. Moreover, a specific focus is done on how some new applications of cryocoolers (continuous operation at a specific temperature) can increase the MTTF. Some assumptions are also exposed on how the failure modes, effects and criticality analysis evolves for continuous operation at a specific temperature and compared to experimental data.

Chiropractic care of children from birth to adolescence and classification of reported conditions: an internet cross-sectional survey of 956 European chiropractors.

PubMed

Marchand, Aurélie M

2012-06-01

Few studies have addressed the practice of chiropractic care of children in Europe. No systematic classification of conditions currently exists in chiropractic pediatrics. The objective of this study was to investigate characteristics of clinical chiropractic practice, including the age of pediatric patients, the number of reports of negative side effects (NSEs), the opinions of doctors of chiropractic on treatment options by patient age groups, the conditions seen and the number of treatment sessions delivered by conditions and by patient age. An Internet cross-sectional survey was conducted in 20 European countries with 4109 doctors of chiropractic invited to reply. The 19 national associations belonging to the European Chiropractic Union and the Danish Chiropractic Association were asked to participate. Respondents were asked to self-report characteristics of their practices. Of the 956 (23.3%) participating chiropractors, 921 reported 19821 pediatric patients per month. Children represented 8.1% of chiropractors' total patient load over the last year. A total of 557 (534 mild, 23 moderate, and 0 severe) negative (adverse) side effects were reported for an estimated incidence of 0.23%. On the given treatment statements, chiropractors reported varying agreement and disagreement rates based on patient age. The 8309 answers on conditions were grouped into skeletal (57.0%), neurologic (23.7%), gastrointestinal (12.4%), infection (3.5%), genitourinary (1.5%), immune (1.4%), and miscellaneous conditions (0.5%). The number of treatment sessions delivered varied according to the condition and the patient age. This study showed that European chiropractors are active in the care of pediatric patients. Reported conditions were mainly skeletal and neurologic complaints. In this survey, no severe NSEs were reported, and mild NSEs were infrequent. Copyright © 2012 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian semiparametric estimation of covariate-dependent ROC curves

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Abel; Martínez, Julissa C.

2014-01-01

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are widely used to measure the discriminating power of medical tests and other classification procedures. In many practical applications, the performance of these procedures can depend on covariates such as age, naturally leading to a collection of curves associated with different covariate levels. This paper develops a Bayesian heteroscedastic semiparametric regression model and applies it to the estimation of covariate-dependent ROC curves. More specifically, our approach uses Gaussian process priors to model the conditional mean and conditional variance of the biomarker of interest for each of the populations under study. The model is illustrated through an application to the evaluation of prostate-specific antigen for the diagnosis of prostate cancer, which contrasts the performance of our model against alternative models. PMID:24174579

Age Tracers and Residence Time in the Hudson River Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadell, S. A.; Geyer, W. R.; Wang, T.

2016-02-01

The Hudson River is one of the most nutrient loaded rivers in the country, however phytoplankton bloom do not occur, possibly as a result of how quickly water moves though the Hudson River estuary. Slower water residence times may then allow for significant phytoplankton growth. Water age and residence time, which are compliments of one another under stead-state conditions, are important factors in determining where phytoplankton move and how long they spend within a favorable portion of the estuary. This research involved introducing a freshwater and saltwater age tracer into the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the Hudson River estuary domain to observe the distribution of ages within the spring-neap tidal cycle and across different river discharge rates. These discharge rates represented average (500 m3/s), relatively high (1000 m3/s), and relatively low (200 m3/s) river flow conditions for the Hudson River. Saltwater age followed a distribution similar to salinity, while freshwater age distribution mostly represented river transit time. Under steady state conditions, combined freshwater and saltwater age may be used to calculate a rough estimate of estuary residence time. The results show that the residence time of the full estuary appears to be at greater than the doubling time of phytoplankton for all discharge rates and by over five days for even the relatively high discharge case. This leads to the conclusion that other estuary factors, including light availability and salinity, may be more important for limiting phytoplankton growth than residence time.

Health Disparities in Mid-to-Late Life: The Role of Earlier Life Family and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Conditions

PubMed Central

Johnson, Rucker C.; Schoeni, Robert F.; Rogowski, Jeannette A.

2012-01-01

The relationship between neighborhoods of residence in young adulthood and health in mid to late life in the United States are examined using the 1968-2005 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The sample consists of persons who were aged 20-30 in 1968 and are followed for a period of 38 years (N=2,730). Four-level hierarchical random effects models of self-assessed general health status as a function of individual, family, and neighborhood factors are estimated. Using the original sampling design of the PSID, we analyze adult health trajectories of married couples and neighbors followed from young adulthood through elderly ages to assess the magnitudes of the possible causal effects of family and neighborhood characteristics in young adulthood on health in mid to late life. Estimates suggest disparities in neighborhood conditions in young adulthood account for one-quarter of the variation in mid-to-late-life health. Living in poor neighborhoods during young adulthood is strongly associated with negative health outcomes in later life. This result is robust even in the presence of a reasonably large amount of potential unobservable individual and family factors that may significantly affect both neighborhood of residence and subsequent health status. Racial differences in health status in mid to late life are also associated with family and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions earlier in life. Three quarters of the black-white gap in health status at ages over 55 can be accounted for by differences in childhood socioeconomic status and neighborhood and family factors in young adulthood. PMID:22212443

Epidemiology of bovine fascioliasis in the Nile Delta region of Egypt: Its prevalence, evaluation of risk factors, and its economic significance

PubMed Central

El-Tahawy, Abdelgawad S.; Bazh, Eman K.; Khalafalla, Reda E.

2017-01-01

Aim: This study focuses on the risk factors associated with the prevalence of Fasciola affecting cattle population in three provinces belonging to the Nile Delta of Egypt and to estimate the economic losses as a result of fascioliasis. Materials and Methods: From January 2015 to end of December 2015, records of 21 farms (4976 cattle) were analyzed to screen the prevalence of fascioliasis among cattle farms, to identify its associated risk factors and its economic impacts on Nile Delta region of Egypt. Results: The overall prevalence of fascioliasis in the Nile Delta region of Egypt was 9.77%. The prevalence of fascioliasis was found to be statistically significantly associated with age, sex, breed, and type of farms. The highest prevalence was observed in <2 age group (10.91%), and the lowest was >3 age groups (8.35%). In terms of body condition scores, cattle with medium and poor conditions were associated with fascioliasis more than those with good body condition. Besides, cattle raised in organic farms were associated with lower risk of fascioliasis than those in conventional farms. The prevalence of fascioliasis was noted more prominent in districts with moderate temperatures and with relative humidity (>60%). The annual overall costs for fascioliasis were estimated to be 221.2 USD/cow due to the significant reduction in body weight, reduction in milk production, and the treatment costs for fascioliasis. Conclusion: The results provided could be helpful for improving the control and preventive strategies. PMID:29184371

Impact of obesity and knee osteoarthritis on morbidity and mortality in older Americans.

PubMed

Losina, Elena; Walensky, Rochelle P; Reichmann, William M; Holt, Holly L; Gerlovin, Hanna; Solomon, Daniel H; Jordan, Joanne M; Hunter, David J; Suter, Lisa G; Weinstein, Alexander M; Paltiel, A David; Katz, Jeffrey N

2011-02-15

Obesity and knee osteoarthritis are among the most frequent chronic conditions affecting Americans aged 50 to 84 years. To estimate quality-adjusted life-years lost due to obesity and knee osteoarthritis and health benefits of reducing obesity prevalence to levels observed a decade ago. The U.S. Census and obesity data from national data sources were combined with estimated prevalence of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis to assign persons aged 50 to 84 years to 4 subpopulations: nonobese without knee osteoarthritis (reference group), nonobese with knee osteoarthritis, obese without knee osteoarthritis, and obese with knee osteoarthritis. The Osteoarthritis Policy Model, a computer simulation model of knee osteoarthritis and obesity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life-year losses due to knee osteoarthritis and obesity in comparison with the reference group. United States. U.S. population aged 50 to 84 years. Quality-adjusted life-years lost owing to knee osteoarthritis and obesity. Estimated total losses of per-person quality-adjusted life-years ranged from 1.857 in nonobese persons with knee osteoarthritis to 3.501 for persons affected by both conditions, resulting in a total of 86.0 million quality-adjusted life-years lost due to obesity, knee osteoarthritis, or both. Quality-adjusted life-years lost due to knee osteoarthritis and/or obesity represent 10% to 25% of the remaining quality-adjusted survival of persons aged 50 to 84 years. Hispanic and black women had disproportionately high losses. Model findings suggested that reversing obesity prevalence to levels seen 10 years ago would avert 178,071 cases of coronary heart disease, 889,872 cases of diabetes, and 111,206 total knee replacements. Such a reduction in obesity would increase the quantity of life by 6,318,030 years and improve life expectancy by 7,812,120 quality-adjusted years in U.S. adults aged 50 to 84 years. Comorbidity incidences were derived from prevalence estimates on the basis of life expectancy of the general population, potentially resulting in conservative underestimates. Calibration analyses were conducted to ensure comparability of model-based projections and data from external sources. The number of quality-adjusted life-years lost owing to knee osteoarthritis and obesity seems to be substantial, with black and Hispanic women experiencing disproportionate losses. Reducing mean body mass index to the levels observed a decade ago in this population would yield substantial health benefits. The National Institutes of Health and the Arthritis Foundation.

Development of a method to rate the primary safety of vehicles using linked New Zealand crash and vehicle licensing data.

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Newstead, Stuart

2016-01-01

Vehicle safety rating systems aim firstly to inform consumers about safe vehicle choices and, secondly, to encourage vehicle manufacturers to aspire to safer levels of vehicle performance. Primary rating systems (that measure the ability of a vehicle to assist the driver in avoiding crashes) have not been developed for a variety of reasons, mainly associated with the difficult task of disassociating driver behavior and vehicle exposure characteristics from the estimation of crash involvement risk specific to a given vehicle. The aim of the current study was to explore different approaches to primary safety estimation, identifying which approaches (if any) may be most valid and most practical, given typical data that may be available for producing ratings. Data analyzed consisted of crash data and motor vehicle registration data for the period 2003 to 2012: 21,643,864 observations (representing vehicle-years) and 135,578 crashed vehicles. Various logistic models were tested as a means to estimate primary safety: Conditional models (conditioning on the vehicle owner over all vehicles owned); full models not conditioned on the owner, with all available owner and vehicle data; reduced models with few variables; induced exposure models; and models that synthesised elements from the latter two models. It was found that excluding young drivers (aged 25 and under) from all primary safety estimates attenuated some high risks estimated for make/model combinations favored by young people. The conditional model had clear biases that made it unsuitable. Estimates from a reduced model based just on crash rates per year (but including an owner location variable) produced estimates that were generally similar to the full model, although there was more spread in the estimates. The best replication of the full model estimates was generated by a synthesis of the reduced model and an induced exposure model. This study compared approaches to estimating primary safety that could mimic an analysis based on a very rich data set, using variables that are commonly available when registered fleet data are linked to crash data. This exploratory study has highlighted promising avenues for developing primary safety rating systems for vehicle makes and models.

Clinical history and biologic age predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

PubMed

Gerdhem, Paul; Ringsberg, Karin A M; Akesson, Kristina; Obrant, Karl J

2005-03-01

Fall risk assessment is important because the consequences, such as a fracture, may be devastating. The objective of this study was to find the test or tests that best predicted falls in a population-based sample of elderly women. The fall-predictive ability of a questionnaire, a subjective estimate of biologic age and objective functional tests (gait, balance [Romberg and sway test], thigh muscle strength, and visual acuity) were compared in 984 randomly selected women, all 75 years of age. A recalled fall was the most important predictor for future falls. Only recalled falls and intake of psycho-active drugs independently predicted future falls. Women with at least five of the most important fall predictors (previous falls, conditions affecting the balance, tendency to fall, intake of psychoactive medication, inability to stand on one leg, high biologic age) had an odds ratio of 11.27 (95% confidence interval 4.61-27.60) for a fall (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). The more time-consuming objective functional tests were of limited importance for fall prediction. A simple clinical history, the inability to stand on one leg, and a subjective estimate of biologic age were more important as part of the fall risk assessment.

Healthcare Resource Utilisation Associated with Herpes Zoster in a Prospective Cohort of Older Australian Adults.

PubMed

Karki, Surendra; Newall, Anthony T; MacIntyre, C Raina; Heywood, Anita E; McIntyre, Peter; Banks, Emily; Liu, Bette

2016-01-01

Herpes zoster (HZ) is a common condition that increases in incidence with older age but vaccines are available to prevent the disease. However, there are limited data estimating the health system burden attributable to herpes zoster by age. In this study, we quantified excess healthcare resource usage associated with HZ during the acute/sub-acute period of disease (21days before to 90 days after onset) in 5952 cases and an equal number of controls matched on age, sex, and prior healthcare resource usage. Estimates were adjusted for potential confounders in multivariable regression models. Using population-based estimates of HZ incidence, we calculated the age-specific excess number of health service usage events attributable to HZ in the population. Per HZ case, there was an average of 0.06 (95% CI 0.04-0.08) excess hospitalisations, 1.61 (95% CI 1.51-1.69) excess general practitioner visits, 1.96 (95% CI 1.86-2.15) excess prescriptions filled and 0.11 (95% CI 0.09-0.13) excess emergency department visits. The average number of healthcare resource use events, and the estimated excess per 100,000 population increased with increasing age but were similar for men and women, except for higher rates of hospitalisation in men. The excess annual HZ associated burden of hospitalisations was highest in adults ≥80 years (N = 2244, 95%CI 1719-2767); GP visits was highest in those 60-69 years (N = 50567, 95%CI 39958-61105), prescriptions and ED visits were highest in 70-79 years (N = 50524, 95%CI 40634-60471 and N = 2891, 95%CI 2319-3449 respectively). This study provides important data to establish the healthcare utilisation associated with HZ against which detailed cost-effectiveness analyses of HZ immunisation in older adults can be conducted.

Impact of body mass index on prevalence of multimorbidity in primary care: cohort study.

PubMed

Booth, Helen P; Prevost, A Toby; Gulliford, Martin C

2014-02-01

Multimorbidity is the co-occurrence of long-term conditions. Obesity is associated with an increased risk of long-term conditions including type 2 diabetes and depression. To quantify the association between body mass index (BMI) category and multimorbidity in a large cohort registered in primary care. The sample comprised primary care electronic health records of adults aged ≥30 years, sampled from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2005 and 2011. Multimorbidity was defined as the co-occurrence of ≥2 of 11 conditions affecting seven organ systems. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence of multimorbidity was estimated by BMI category. Adjusted odds ratios associating BMI with additional morbidity were estimated adjusting for socioeconomic deprivation and smoking. The sample comprised 300 006 adults. After excluding participants with BMI never recorded, data were analysed for 223 089 (74%) contributing 1 374 109 person-years. In normal weight men, the standardized prevalence of multimorbidity was 23%, rising to 27% in overweight, 33% in category I obesity, 38% in category II and 44% in category III obesity. In women, the corresponding values were 28%, 34%, 41%, 45% and 51%. In category III obesity, the adjusted odds, relative to normal BMI, were 2.24 (2.13-2.36) for a first condition; 2.63 (2.51-2.76) for a second condition and 3.09 (2.92-3.28) for three or more conditions. In a cross-sectional analysis, 32% of multimorbidity was attributable to overweight and obesity. Multiple morbidity is highly associated with increasing BMI category and obesity, highlighting the potential for targeted primary and secondary prevention interventions in primary care.

Health benefits, risks, and cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of children.

PubMed

Prosser, Lisa A; Bridges, Carolyn Buxton; Uyeki, Timothy M; Hinrichsen, Virginia L; Meltzer, Martin I; Molinari, Noelle-Angelique M; Schwartz, Benjamin; Thompson, William W; Fukuda, Keiji; Lieu, Tracy A

2006-10-01

We estimated cost-effectiveness of annually vaccinating children not at high risk with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) to range from US $12,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved for children ages 6-23 months to $119,000 per QALY saved for children ages 12-17 years. For children at high risk (preexisting medical conditions) ages 6-35 months, vaccination with IIV was cost saving. For children at high risk ages 3-17 years, vaccination cost $1,000-$10,000 per QALY. Among children notat high risk ages 5-17 years, live, attenuated influenza vaccine had a similar cost-effectiveness as IIV. Risk status was more important than age in determining the economic effects of annual vaccination, and vaccination was less cost-effective as the child's age increased. Thus, routine vaccination of all children is likely less cost-effective than vaccination of all children ages 6-23 months plus all other children at high risk.

Chronic disease risk factors among American Indian/Alaska Native women of reproductive age.

PubMed

Amparo, Pamela; Farr, Sherry L; Dietz, Patricia M

2011-11-01

The magnitude of chronic conditions and risk factors among American Indian/Alaska Native women of reproductive age is unknown. The objective of our study was to estimate this magnitude. We analyzed data for 2,821 American Indian/Alaska Native women and 105,664 non-Hispanic white women aged 18 to 44 years from the 2005 and 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We examined prevalence of high cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes, body mass index (kg/m(2)) ≥25.0, physical inactivity, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and frequent mental distress, and the cumulative number of these chronic conditions and risk factors (≥3, 2, 1, or 0). In a multivariable, multinomial logistic regression model, we examined whether American Indian/Alaska Native race was associated with the cumulative number of chronic conditions and risk factors. American Indian/Alaska Native women, compared with white women, had significantly higher rates of high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, smoking, and frequent mental distress. Of American Indian/Alaska Native women, 41% had 3 or more chronic conditions or risk factors compared with 27% of white women (χ(2), P < .001). After adjustment for income, education, and other demographic variables, American Indian/Alaska Native race was not associated with having either 1, 2, or 3 or more chronic conditions or risk factors. Three out of every 5 American Indian/Alaska Native women aged 18 to 44 years have 3 or more chronic conditions or risk factors. Improving economic status and education for AI/AN women could help eliminate disparities in health status.

Biomedical and Social-Environmental Influences on Cognitive and Verbal Abilities in Children 1-3 Years of Age.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molfese, Victoria J; And Others

1994-01-01

Investigated the effects of biomedical and social-environmental conditions on cognitive and language development in children toddlers. Hypothesized a strong effect of biomedical factors in first two years and a strong environmental influence at three years. Used analysis approach to estimate variables assumed to underlie measurement data. Results…

Minimum Wages and School Enrollment of Teenagers: A Look at the 1990's.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaplin, Duncan D.; Turner, Mark D.; Pape, Andreas, D.

2003-01-01

Estimates the effects of higher minimum wages on school enrollment using the Common Core of Data. Controlling for local labor market conditions and state and year fixed effects, finds some evidence that higher minimum wages reduce teen school enrollment in states where students drop out before age 18. (23 references) (Author/PKP)

Systematic screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions: Still debatable

PubMed Central

Leproust, Sandy; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Salmi, L Rachid

2008-01-01

Background Assessing people's ability to drive has become a public health concern in most industrialized countries. Although age itself is not a predictive factor of an increased risk for dangerous driving, the prevalence of medical conditions that may impair driving increases with age. Because the implementation of a screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions is a public health issue, its usefulness should be judged using standardised criteria already proposed for screening for chronic disease. The aim of this paper is to propose standardised criteria suitable to assess the scientific validity of screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions, and identify potential issues to be clarified before screening can be implemented and effective. Discussion Using criteria developed for screening for chronic diseases and published studies on driving with medical conditions, we specify six criteria to judge the opportunity of screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions. This adaptation was needed because of the complexity of the natural history of medical conditions and their potential consequences on driving and road safety. We then illustrate that published studies pleading for or against screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions fail to provide the needed documentation. Individual criteria were mentioned in 3 to 72% of 36 papers pleading for or against screening. Quantitative estimates of relevant indicators were provided in at most 42% of papers, and some data, such as the definition of an appropriate unsafe driving period were never provided. Summary The standardised framework described in this paper provides a template for assessing the effectiveness (or lack of effectiveness) of proposed measures for screening for unsafe driving due to medical conditions. Even if most criteria were mentioned in the published literature pleading for or against such a screening, the failure to find quantitative and evidence-based estimates of relevant indicators provides useful insight for further research. PMID:18215269

[The impact of the social economic conditions on the reproduction processes].

PubMed

Leonova, N G

2007-01-01

The social economic conditions of population reproduction in the Trans-Dniester Region with the emphasis on its specifics are analyzed. The natural dynamics of population is estimated including gender and age peculiarities, marriage and divorces statistics, migration processes and population health in the region. It is shown that the population reproduction dynamics follows the natural laws and processes. The role of the post-Soviet period social economic conditions harmful to health are considered. The interdependencies between the social economic development and population reproduction are revealed. The recommendations related to the means of the further enhancement of social economic conditions as related to population reproduction in the Trans-Dniester Region are proposed.

Fatal Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in the United States, 1999–2007

PubMed Central

Dahlgren, F. Scott; Holman, Robert C.; Paddock, Christopher D.; Callinan, Laura S.; McQuiston, Jennifer H.

2012-01-01

Death from Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is preventable with prompt, appropriate treatment. Data from two independent sources were analyzed to estimate the burden of fatal RMSF and identify risk factors for fatal RMSF in the United States during 1999–2007. Despite increased reporting of RMSF cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, no significant changes in the estimated number of annual fatal RMSF cases were found. American Indians were at higher risk of fatal RMSF relative to whites (relative risk [RR] = 3.9), and children 5–9 years of age (RR = 6.0) and adults ≥ 70 years of age (RR = 3.0) were also at increased risk relative to other ages. Persons with cases of RMSF with an immunosuppressive condition were at increased risk of death (RR = 4.4). Delaying treatment of RMSF was also associated with increased deaths. These results may indicate a gap between recommendations and practice. PMID:22492159

Genetic relationship between cyclic ovarian activity in heifers and cows and beef traits in males

PubMed Central

Mialon, Marie-Madeleine; Renand, Gilles; Krauss, Daniel; Ménissier, François

2001-01-01

Records were collected in an experimental herd over an 11-year period from purebred Charolais heifers (n = 351), cows (n = 615) and young entire bulls (n = 383). The objective of the study was to estimate the genetic relationship between the components of female ovarian activity (age at puberty and postpartum anoestrus length), their growth rate and body condition score and beef traits measured on related bulls. Two methods were used to estimate age at puberty and postpartum anoestrus length: the detection of oestrous behaviour and a test of cyclicity based on plasmatic progesterone assay. This study shows the existence of significant heritability estimates for the different cyclicity traits (h2 between 0.11 and 0.38). Most of the genetic correlation coefficients between ovarian activity and growth rate of females and males are negative and favourable (rg between -0.43 and 0.06). Cyclicity is also favourably related with body condition score in young or adult females (rg between -0.65 and -0.22). The genetic relationship between female ovarian activity and proportion of adipose tissue in the male carcass is, however, close to zero. These results show that an antagonism between male beef traits measured in this study and female ovarian activity is unlikely to be a cause for concern in the short term. PMID:11403748

Quantile Regression Models for Current Status Data

PubMed Central

Ou, Fang-Shu; Zeng, Donglin; Cai, Jianwen

2016-01-01

Current status data arise frequently in demography, epidemiology, and econometrics where the exact failure time cannot be determined but is only known to have occurred before or after a known observation time. We propose a quantile regression model to analyze current status data, because it does not require distributional assumptions and the coefficients can be interpreted as direct regression effects on the distribution of failure time in the original time scale. Our model assumes that the conditional quantile of failure time is a linear function of covariates. We assume conditional independence between the failure time and observation time. An M-estimator is developed for parameter estimation which is computed using the concave-convex procedure and its confidence intervals are constructed using a subsampling method. Asymptotic properties for the estimator are derived and proven using modern empirical process theory. The small sample performance of the proposed method is demonstrated via simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging. PMID:27994307

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccination in at-risk adults and the elderly: an updated analysis in the U.K.

PubMed

Meier, G; Gregg, M; Poulsen Nautrup, B

2015-01-01

To update an earlier evaluation estimating the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccination (QIV) compared with trivalent influenza vaccination (TIV) in the adult population currently recommended for influenza vaccination in the UK (all people aged ≥65 years and people aged 18-64 years with clinical risk conditions). This analysis takes into account updated vaccine prices, reference costs, influenza strain circulation, and burden of illness data. A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with seven age groups. The model was run in 1-year cycles for a lifetime, i.e., until the youngest patients at entry reached the age of 100 years. The base-case analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a secondary analysis from the societal perspective. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. Herd effects were not included. Inputs were derived from systematic reviews, peer-reviewed articles, and government publications and databases. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base-case, QIV would be expected to avoid 1,413,392 influenza cases, 41,780 hospitalizations, and 19,906 deaths over the lifetime horizon, compared with TIV. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £14,645 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. From the societal perspective, the estimated ICER was £13,497/QALY. A strategy of vaccinating only people aged ≥65 years had an estimated ICER of £11,998/QALY. Sensitivity analysis indicated that only two parameters, seasonal variation in influenza B matching and influenza A circulation, had a substantial effect on the ICER. QIV would be likely to be cost-effective compared with TIV in 68% of simulations with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£20,000/QALY and 87% with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£30,000/QALY. In this updated analysis, QIV was estimated to be cost-effective compared with TIV in the U.K.

Using Passive Sensing to Estimate Relative Energy Expenditure for Eldercare Monitoring

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

This paper describes ongoing work in analyzing sensor data logged in the homes of seniors. An estimation of relative energy expenditure is computed using motion density from passive infrared motion sensors mounted in the environment. We introduce a new algorithm for detecting visitors in the home using motion sensor data and a set of fuzzy rules. The visitor algorithm, as well as a previous algorithm for identifying time-away-from-home (TAFH), are used to filter the logged motion sensor data. Thus, the energy expenditure estimate uses data collected only when the resident is home alone. Case studies are included from TigerPlace, an Aging in Place community, to illustrate how the relative energy expenditure estimate can be used to track health conditions over time. PMID:25266777

The Nakuru posterior segment eye disease study: methods and prevalence of blindness and visual impairment in Nakuru, Kenya.

PubMed

Mathenge, Wanjiku; Bastawrous, Andrew; Foster, Allen; Kuper, Hannah

2012-10-01

To estimate the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment (VI) in adults aged ≥50 years in the Nakuru district of Kenya and to identify sociodemographic risk factors for these conditions. We also sought to validate the Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness (RAAB) methodology. There were 5010 subjects enumerated for this study. Of these, 4414 participants underwent examination, for a response rate of 88.1%. Cross-sectional, population-based survey. Cluster random samplings with probability proportionate to size procedures were used to select a representative cross-sectional sample of adults aged ≥50 years. Each participant was interviewed, had distance visual acuity (VA) measured with reduced logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution tumbling-E chart, underwent autorefraction, and thereby had measurements of presenting, uncorrected, and best-corrected VA. All participants, regardless of vision, underwent detailed ophthalmic examinations including slit-lamp assessment and dilated retinal photographs. Visual acuity of <6/12. A representative sample of 4414 adults were enumerated (response rate, 88.1%). The prevalence of blindness (VA < 3/60 in better eye) was 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.1%) and of VI, 0.4% (95% CI, 0.3-0.7%); 8.1% (95% CI, 7.2-9.2%); and 5.1% (95% CI, 4.3-6.1%) were severely (<6/60-3/60), moderately (<6/18-6/60), or mildly (<6/12-6/18) visually impaired, respectively. Being male, having less education, having Kalenjin tribal origin, and being ≥80 years old were associated with increased blindness prevalence. Prevalence estimates were comparable to a RAAB performed in the same area 2 years earlier. This survey provides reliable estimates of blindness and VI prevalence in Nakuru. Older age and tribal origin were identified as predictors of these conditions. This survey validates the use of RAAB as a method of estimating blindness and VI prevalence. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive load during speech perception in noise: the influence of age, hearing loss, and cognition on the pupil response.

PubMed

Zekveld, Adriana A; Kramer, Sophia E; Festen, Joost M

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of age, hearing loss, and cognitive ability on the cognitive processing load during listening to speech presented in noise. Cognitive load was assessed by means of pupillometry (i.e., examination of pupil dilation), supplemented with subjective ratings. Two groups of subjects participated: 38 middle-aged participants (mean age = 55 yrs) with normal hearing and 36 middle-aged participants (mean age = 61 yrs) with hearing loss. Using three Speech Reception Threshold (SRT) in stationary noise tests, we estimated the speech-to-noise ratios (SNRs) required for the correct repetition of 50%, 71%, or 84% of the sentences (SRT50%, SRT71%, and SRT84%, respectively). We examined the pupil response during listening: the peak amplitude, the peak latency, the mean dilation, and the pupil response duration. For each condition, participants rated the experienced listening effort and estimated their performance level. Participants also performed the Text Reception Threshold (TRT) test, a test of processing speed, and a word vocabulary test. Data were compared with previously published data from young participants with normal hearing. Hearing loss was related to relatively poor SRTs, and higher speech intelligibility was associated with lower effort and higher performance ratings. For listeners with normal hearing, increasing age was associated with poorer TRTs and slower processing speed but with larger word vocabulary. A multivariate repeated-measures analysis of variance indicated main effects of group and SNR and an interaction effect between these factors on the pupil response. The peak latency was relatively short and the mean dilation was relatively small at low intelligibility levels for the middle-aged groups, whereas the reverse was observed for high intelligibility levels. The decrease in the pupil response as a function of increasing SNR was relatively small for the listeners with hearing loss. Spearman correlation coefficients indicated that the cognitive load was larger in listeners with better TRT performances as reflected by a longer peak latency (normal-hearing participants, SRT50% condition) and a larger peak amplitude and longer response duration (hearing-impaired participants, SRT50% and SRT84% conditions). Also, a larger word vocabulary was related to longer response duration in the SRT84% condition for the participants with normal hearing. The pupil response systematically increased with decreasing speech intelligibility. Ageing and hearing loss were related to less release from effort when increasing the intelligibility of speech in noise. In difficult listening conditions, these factors may induce cognitive overload relatively early or they may be associated with relatively shallow speech processing. More research is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms explaining these results. Better TRTs and larger word vocabulary were related to higher mental processing load across speech intelligibility levels. This indicates that utilizing linguistic ability to improve speech perception is associated with increased listening load.

HIV Infection and Older Americans: The Public Health Perspective

PubMed Central

Buchacz, Kate; Gebo, Kelly A.; Mermin, Jonathan

2012-01-01

HIV disease is often perceived as a condition affecting young adults. However, approximately 11% of new infections occur in adults aged 50 years or older. Among persons living with HIV disease, it is estimated that more than half will be aged 50 years or older in the near future. In this review, we highlight issues related to HIV prevention and treatment for HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected older Americans, and outline unique considerations and emerging challenges for public health and patient management in these 2 populations. PMID:22698038

Challenges of accelerated aging techniques for elastomer lifetime predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Bernstein, R.; Celina, M.

Elastomers are often degraded when exposed to air or high humidity for extended times (years to decades). Lifetime estimates normally involve extrapolating accelerated aging results made at higher than ambient environments. Several potential problems associated with such studies are reviewed, and experimental and theoretical methods to address them are provided. The importance of verifying time–temperature superposition of degradation data is emphasized as evidence that the overall nature of the degradation process remains unchanged versus acceleration temperature. The confounding effects that occur when diffusion-limited oxidation (DLO) contributes under accelerated conditions are described, and it is shown that the DLO magnitude canmore » be modeled by measurements or estimates of the oxygen permeability coefficient (P Ox) and oxygen consumption rate (Φ). P Ox and Φ measurements can be influenced by DLO, and it is demonstrated how confident values can be derived. In addition, several experimental profiling techniques that screen for DLO effects are discussed. Values of Φ taken from high temperature to temperatures approaching ambient can be used to more confidently extrapolate accelerated aging results for air-aged materials, and many studies now show that Arrhenius extrapolations bend to lower activation energies as aging temperatures are lowered. Furthermore, best approaches for accelerated aging extrapolations of humidity-exposed materials are also offered.« less

Challenges of accelerated aging techniques for elastomer lifetime predictions

DOE PAGES

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Bernstein, R.; Celina, M.

2015-03-01

Elastomers are often degraded when exposed to air or high humidity for extended times (years to decades). Lifetime estimates normally involve extrapolating accelerated aging results made at higher than ambient environments. Several potential problems associated with such studies are reviewed, and experimental and theoretical methods to address them are provided. The importance of verifying time–temperature superposition of degradation data is emphasized as evidence that the overall nature of the degradation process remains unchanged versus acceleration temperature. The confounding effects that occur when diffusion-limited oxidation (DLO) contributes under accelerated conditions are described, and it is shown that the DLO magnitude canmore » be modeled by measurements or estimates of the oxygen permeability coefficient (P Ox) and oxygen consumption rate (Φ). P Ox and Φ measurements can be influenced by DLO, and it is demonstrated how confident values can be derived. In addition, several experimental profiling techniques that screen for DLO effects are discussed. Values of Φ taken from high temperature to temperatures approaching ambient can be used to more confidently extrapolate accelerated aging results for air-aged materials, and many studies now show that Arrhenius extrapolations bend to lower activation energies as aging temperatures are lowered. Furthermore, best approaches for accelerated aging extrapolations of humidity-exposed materials are also offered.« less

A cost-effectiveness analysis of in-vitro fertilization by maternal age and number of treatment attempts.

PubMed

Griffiths, Alison; Dyer, Suzanne M; Lord, Sarah J; Pardy, Chris; Fraser, Ian S; Eckermann, Simon

2010-04-01

The increase in use and costs of assisted reproductive therapies including in-vitro fertilization (IVF) has led to debate over public funding. A decision analytic model was designed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of IVF by additional treatment programmes and maternal age. Data from the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproductive Database were used to estimate incremental effects (live birth and other pregnancy outcomes) and costs for cohorts of women attempting up to three treatment programmes. A treatment programme included one fresh cycle and a variable number of frozen cycles dependent on maternal age. The incremental cost per live birth ranged from AU dollars 27 373 and AU dollars 31 986 for women aged 30-33 on their first and third programmes to AU dollars 130 951 and AU dollars 187 515 for 42-45-year-old women on their first and second attempts. Overall, these trends were not affected by inclusions of costs associated with ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome or multiple births. This study suggests that cost per live birth from IVF increases with maternal age and treatment programme number and indicates that maternal age has the much greater effect. This evidence may help decisionmakers target the use of IVF services conditional on societal willingness to pay for live births and equity considerations.

Sample size estimation for alternating logistic regressions analysis of multilevel randomized community trials of under-age drinking.

PubMed

Reboussin, Beth A; Preisser, John S; Song, Eun-Young; Wolfson, Mark

2012-07-01

Under-age drinking is an enormous public health issue in the USA. Evidence that community level structures may impact on under-age drinking has led to a proliferation of efforts to change the environment surrounding the use of alcohol. Although the focus of these efforts is to reduce drinking by individual youths, environmental interventions are typically implemented at the community level with entire communities randomized to the same intervention condition. A distinct feature of these trials is the tendency of the behaviours of individuals residing in the same community to be more alike than that of others residing in different communities, which is herein called 'clustering'. Statistical analyses and sample size calculations must account for this clustering to avoid type I errors and to ensure an appropriately powered trial. Clustering itself may also be of scientific interest. We consider the alternating logistic regressions procedure within the population-averaged modelling framework to estimate the effect of a law enforcement intervention on the prevalence of under-age drinking behaviours while modelling the clustering at multiple levels, e.g. within communities and within neighbourhoods nested within communities, by using pairwise odds ratios. We then derive sample size formulae for estimating intervention effects when planning a post-test-only or repeated cross-sectional community-randomized trial using the alternating logistic regressions procedure.

Plumage condition in laying hens: genetic parameters for direct and indirect effects in two purebred layer lines.

PubMed

Brinker, Tessa; Bijma, Piter; Visscher, Jeroen; Rodenburg, T Bas; Ellen, Esther D

2014-05-29

Feather pecking is a major welfare issue in laying hen industry that leads to mortality. Due to a ban on conventional cages in the EU and on beak trimming in some countries of the EU, feather pecking will become an even bigger problem. Its severity depends both on the victim receiving pecking and on its group mates inflicting pecking (indirect effects), which together determine plumage condition of the victim. Plumage condition may depend, therefore, on both the direct genetic effect of an individual itself and on the indirect genetic effects of its group mates. Here, we present estimated genetic parameters for direct and indirect effects on plumage condition of different body regions in two purebred layer lines, and estimates of genetic correlations between body regions. Feather condition scores (FCS) were recorded at 40 weeks of age for neck, back, rump and belly and these four scores were added-up into a total FCS. A classical animal model and a direct-indirect effects model were used to estimate genetic parameters for FCS. In addition, a bivariate model with mortality (0/1) was used to account for mortality before recording FCS. Due to mortality during the first 23 weeks of laying, 5363 (for W1) and 5089 (for WB) FCS records were available. Total heritable variance for FCS ranged from 1.5% to 9.8% and from 9.8% to 53.6% when estimated respectively with the classical animal and the direct-indirect effects model. The direct-indirect effects model had a significantly higher likelihood. In both lines, 70% to 94% of the estimated total heritable variation in FCS was due to indirect effects. Using bivariate analysis of FCS and mortality did not affect estimates of genetic parameters. Genetic correlations were high between adjacent regions for FCS on neck, back, and rump but moderate to low for belly with other regions. Our results show that 70% to 94% of the heritable variation in FCS relates to indirect effects, indicating that methods of genetic selection that include indirect genetic effects offer perspectives to improve plumage condition in laying hens. This, in turn could reduce a major welfare problem.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

Heart age differentials and general cardiovascular risk profiles for persons with varying disabilities: NHANES 2001-2010.

PubMed

Hollar, David W; Lewis, Jennifer S

2015-01-01

Persons with disabilities are at risk for secondary conditions, including allostatic load contributing to cardiovascular disease. The General Cardiovascular Risk Profile (GCRP) estimates cardiovascular disease risk for individuals. The GCRP variables are present in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for the Healthy People 2010 decade. The objective of this study was to compare persons with varying disabilities versus persons without disabilities on GCRP cardiovascular disease risk estimates across the Healthy People 2010 decade. Weighted cross-sectional one-way Analyses of Variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis analyses compared persons with each of eight disability types versus persons without disabilities for point estimate GCRP heart vascular age differential and Cox regression model ten-year risk estimate in each NHANES survey year for 2001-2010. Persons with mobility or vision disabilities had significantly (p < .025) greater ten-year percent risks for cardiovascular disease and negative heart vascular age differentials (with respect to actual age, therefore "older" hearts) than persons without disabilities. The GCRP dual models conflict for certain disabilities (e.g., hearing, physical/mental/emotional) but are consistently reliable measures of GCRP for persons with mobility limitations and vision disabilities. With higher CVD risk among persons with disabilities, there is a clear need for increased interventions to benefit the health of persons with disabilities. The GCRP represents a valuable, simple measurement that uses routinely collected examination data. Physicians and nurses can use the GCRP to make immediate CVD assessments and to provide point-of-contact counseling to patients with and without disabilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Insomnia and the performance of US workers: results from the America insomnia survey.

PubMed

Kessler, Ronald C; Berglund, Patricia A; Coulouvrat, Catherine; Hajak, Goeran; Roth, Thomas; Shahly, Victoria; Shillington, Alicia C; Stephenson, Judith J; Walsh, James K

2011-09-01

To estimate the prevalence and associations of broadly defined (i.e., meeting full ICD-10, DSM-IV, or RDC/ICSD-2 inclusion criteria) insomnia with work performance net of comorbid conditions in the America Insomnia Survey (AIS). Cross-sectional telephone survey. National sample of 7,428 employed health plan subscribers (ages 18+). None. Broadly defined insomnia was assessed with the Brief Insomnia Questionnaire (BIQ). Work absenteeism and presenteeism (low on-the-job work performance defined in the metric of lost workday equivalents) were assessed with the WHO Health and Work Performance Questionnaire (HPQ). Regression analysis examined associations between insomnia and HPQ scores controlling 26 comorbid conditions based on self-report and medical/pharmacy claims records. The estimated prevalence of insomnia was 23.2%. Insomnia was significantly associated with lost work performance due to presenteeism (χ² (1) = 39.5, P < 0.001) but not absenteeism (χ² (1) = 3.2, P = 0.07), with an annualized individual-level association of insomnia with presenteeism equivalent to 11.3 days of lost work performance. This estimate decreased to 7.8 days when controls were introduced for comorbid conditions. The individual-level human capital value of this net estimate was $2,280. If we provisionally assume these estimates generalize to the total US workforce, they are equivalent to annualized population-level estimates of 252.7 days and $63.2 billion. Insomnia is associated with substantial workplace costs. Although experimental studies suggest some of these costs could be recovered with insomnia disease management programs, effectiveness trials are needed to obtain precise estimates of return-on-investment of such interventions from the employer perspective.

Projected Costs of Informal Caregiving for Cardiovascular Disease: 2015 to 2035: A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Dunbar, Sandra B; Khavjou, Olga A; Bakas, Tamilyn; Hunt, Gail; Kirch, Rebecca A; Leib, Alyssa R; Morrison, R Sean; Poehler, Diana C; Roger, Veronique L; Whitsel, Laurie P

2018-05-08

In a recent report, the American Heart Association estimated that medical costs and productivity losses of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are expected to grow from $555 billion in 2015 to $1.1 trillion in 2035. Although the burden is significant, the estimate does not include the costs of family, informal, or unpaid caregiving provided to patients with CVD. In this analysis, we estimated projections of costs of informal caregiving attributable to CVD for 2015 to 2035. We used data from the 2014 Health and Retirement Survey to estimate hours of informal caregiving for individuals with CVD by age/sex/race using a zero-inflated binomial model and controlling for sociodemographic factors and health conditions. Costs of informal caregiving were estimated separately for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and other heart disease. We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample of 16 731 noninstitutionalized adults ≥54 years of age. The value of caregiving hours was monetized by the use of home health aide workers' wages. The per-person costs were multiplied by census population counts to estimate nation-level costs and to be consistent with other American Heart Association analyses of burden of CVD, and the costs were projected from 2015 through 2035, assuming that within each age/sex/racial group, CVD prevalence and caregiving hours remain constant. The costs of informal caregiving for patients with CVD were estimated to be $61 billion in 2015 and are projected to increase to $128 billion in 2035. Costs of informal caregiving of patients with stroke constitute more than half of the total costs of CVD informal caregiving ($31 billion in 2015 and $66 billion in 2035). By age, costs are the highest among those 65 to 79 years of age in 2015 but are expected to be surpassed by costs among those ≥80 years of age by 2035. Costs of informal caregiving for patients with CVD represent an additional 11% of medical and productivity costs attributable to CVD. The burden of informal caregiving for patients with CVD is significant; accounting for these costs increases total CVD costs to $616 billion in 2015 and $1.2 trillion in 2035. These estimates have important research and policy implications, and they may be used to guide policy development to reduce the burden of CVD on patients and their caregivers. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Key goals and indicators for successful aging of adults with early-onset disability.

PubMed

LaPlante, Mitchell P

2014-01-01

Substantial improvements have occurred in the longevity of several groups of individuals with early-onset disabilities, with many now surviving to advanced ages. This paper estimates the population of adults aging with early-onset disabilities at 12-15 million persons. Key goals for the successful aging of adults with early-onset disabilities are discussed, emphasizing reduction in risks for aging-related chronic disease and secondary conditions, while promoting social participation and independence. However, indicators suggest that elevated risk factors for aging-related chronic diseases, including smoking, obesity, and inactivity, as well as barriers to prevention and the diminished social and economic situation of adults with disabilities are continuing impediments to successful aging that must be addressed. Increased provider awareness that people with early-onset disabilities are aging and can age successfully and the integration of disability and aging services systems are transformative steps that will help adults with early-onset disability to age more successfully. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature and diet on black soldier fly, Hermetia illucens (L.) (Diptera: Stratiomyidae), development.

PubMed

Harnden, Laura M; Tomberlin, Jeffery K

2016-09-01

The black soldier fly, Hermetia illucens, is recognised for its use in a forensic context as a means for estimating the time of colonisation and potentially postmortem interval of decomposing remains. However, little data exist on this species outside of its use in waste management. This study offers a preliminary assessment of the development, and subsequent validation, of H. illucens. Larvae of H. illucens were reared at three temperatures (24.9°C, 27.6°C and 32.2°C) at 55% RH on beef loin muscle, pork loin muscle and a grain-based diet (control). Each of the temperatures and diets were found to significantly (P<0.05) affect all stages of immature growth except for pupation time. Overall, those reared on the pork diet required on average ≈23.1% and ≈139.7% more degree hours to complete larval development than those reared on the beef and grain-based diets, respectively. Larvae reared at 27.6°C and 32.2°C required on average ≈8.7% more degree hours to complete development and had a final larval weight ≈30% greater than larvae reared at 24.9°C. The validity of the laboratory larval length and weight data sets was assessed via estimating the age of field-reared larvae. Grain-diet data lacked accuracy when used to estimate larval age in comparison to estimates made with beef and pork-diet data, which were able to predict larval age for ≈55.6% and ≈88.9% of sampling points, respectively, when length and weight data were used in conjunction. Field-reared larval sizes exceeded the maximum observed under laboratory conditions in almost half of the samples, which reduced estimate accuracy. Future research should develop additional criteria for identifying development of each specific instar, which may aid in improving the accuracy and precision of larval age estimates for this species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Double trouble: the impact of multimorbidity and deprivation on preference-weighted health related quality of life a cross sectional analysis of the Scottish Health Survey.

PubMed

Lawson, Kenny D; Mercer, Stewart W; Wyke, Sally; Grieve, Eleanor; Guthrie, Bruce; Watt, Graham C M; Fenwick, Elisabeth A E

2013-08-20

To investigate the association between multimorbidity and Preference_Weighted Health Related Quality of Life (PW_HRQoL), a score that combines physical and mental functioning, and how this varies by socioeconomic deprivation and age. The Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) is a cross-sectional representative survey of the general population which included the SF-12, a survey of HRQoL, for individuals 20 years and over. For 7,054 participants we generated PW_HRQoL scores by running SF-12 responses through the SF-6D algorithm. The resulting scores ranged from 0.29 (worst health) to 1 (perfect health). Using ordinary least squares, we first investigated associations between scores and increasing counts of longstanding conditions, and then repeated for multimorbidity (2+ conditions). Estimates were made for the general population and quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation. For multimorbidity, the analyses were repeated stratifying the population by age group (20-44, 45-64, 65+). 45% of participants reported a longstanding condition and 18% reported multimorbidity. The presence of 1, 2, or 3+ longstanding conditions were associated with average reductions in PW_HRQoL scores of 0.081, 0.151 and 0.212 respectively. Reduction in scores associated with multimorbidity was 33% greater in the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived quintile, with the biggest difference (80%) in the 20-44 age groups. There were no significant gender differences. PW_HRQoL decreases markedly with multimorbidity, and is exacerbated by higher deprivation and younger age. There is a need to prioritise interventions to improve the HRQoL for (especially younger) adults with multimorbidity in deprived areas. BOX 1: What Is Known?Prevalence and premature onset of multimorbidity increases as socioeconomic position worsens. Previous studies have investigated the effect of multimorbidity on Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) on separate physical and mental health states. There is limited data on how HRQoL falls as the number of conditions increase, and how estimates vary across the general population.Leaving physical and mental health as separate categories can inhibit assessment of overall HRQoL. The use of a Preference_Weighted Health Related Quality of Life (PW_HRQoL) score provides a single summary measure of overall health, by weighting mental and physical states by their perceived importance as part of overall HRQoL. The use of a single score enables a simple and consistent assessment of the impact of conditions and how this varies across the population. Economists term PW_HRQoL scores health utilities.What this study adds?This is the first study to estimate how the impact of multimorbidity on PW_HRQoL scores varies by age group and socioeconomic deprivation. Multimorbidity has a substantial negative impact on HRQoL which is most severe in areas of deprivation, especially in younger adults.Measuring the burden of multimorbidity using PW_HRQoL provides consistency with how economists measure HRQoL; changes in which can be used in economic evaluation to assess the cost effectiveness of interventions.

Self-reported versus health administrative data: implications for assessing chronic illness burden in populations. A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Fortin, Martin; Haggerty, Jeannie; Sanche, Steven; Almirall, José

2017-01-01

Background: Various data sources may be used to document the presence of chronic medical conditions. This study examined the agreement between self-reported and health administrative data. Methods: A randomly selected cohort of participants aged 25-75 years recruited by telephone from the general population of Quebec reported on the presence of 1 or more chronic conditions from a candidate list of 12 conditions: diabetes, hypertension, thyroid disorder, any cardiac disease, cancer diagnosis in the previous 5 years (including melanoma but excluding other skin cancers), asthma, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis or lupus, osteoporosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, intestinal disease and hypercholesterolemia. We also used health administrative data from Quebec's universal health insurance provider to identify participants' chronic conditions. Unique identifiers allowed linkage of both data sources to the individual participant. The frequencies of the 12 conditions and the prevalence of multimorbidity (≥ 2, ≥ 3 and ≥ 4 conditions) were analyzed for each data source. Results: We analyzed data for 1177 participants (mean age 53 [standard deviation 12.4] yr; 684 women [58.1%]). We found low (but varied) agreement between the 2 data sources, with the poorest agreement for hypercholesterolemia (κ = 0.04 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.07]) and the best for diabetes (κ = 0.82 [95% CI 0.76 to 0.88]). Prevalence estimates of multimorbidity obtained with health administrative data were lower than those obtained with self-reported data regardless of the operational definition used. Most participants with multimorbidity were identified by self-report. Interpretation: We argue for the use of self-reported chronic conditions in the study of multimorbidity, as health administrative data based on the billing system in Quebec seem to underestimate the prevalence of many chronic conditions, which results in biased estimates of multimorbidity. PMID:28947426

Is youth smoking responsive to cigarette prices? Evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Kostova, Deliana; Ross, Hana; Blecher, Evan; Markowitz, Sara

2011-11-01

To estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand among youth in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The Global Youth Tobacco Survey was used to obtain data on the smoking behaviour of 315,353 adolescents from 17 LMIC. Two-part model of cigarette demand with country fixed effects. The first part estimates the impact of prices on smoking participation while the second part estimates the impact of prices on the number of cigarettes smoked among current smokers. Besides controlling for individual characteristics such as Age, Gender, Parental Smoking and availability of Pocket Money, the authors control for confounding environmental factors such as anti-smoking sentiment, the prevalence of cigarette advertising and anti-tobacco media messAges, and ease of purchasing cigarettes. All countries in this study are represented with at least two observations over time, which allows us to control for unobserved country characteristics and/or policies that may influence smoking patterns within countries. Cigarette price is an important determinant of smoking. The estimated price elasticity of smoking participation is -0.74, and the estimated price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is approximately -1.37. The total price elasticity of cigarette demand is -2.11, implying that an increase in price of 10% would reduce youth cigarette consumption by 21.1% at the mean.

Productivity of aboveground coarse wood biomass and stand age related to soil hydrology of Amazonian forests in the Purus-Madeira interfluvial area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cintra, B. B. L.; Schietti, J.; Emillio, T.; Martins, D.; Moulatlet, G.; Souza, P.; Levis, C.; Quesada, C. A.; Schöngart, J.

2013-04-01

The ongoing demand for information on forest productivity has increased the number of permanent monitoring plots across the Amazon. Those plots, however, do not comprise the whole diversity of forest types in the Amazon. The complex effects of soil, climate and hydrology on the productivity of seasonally waterlogged interfluvial wetland forests are still poorly understood. The presented study is the first field-based estimate for tree ages and wood biomass productivity in the vast interfluvial region between the Purus and Madeira rivers. We estimate stand age and wood biomass productivity by a combination of tree-ring data and allometric equations for biomass stocks of eight plots distributed along 600 km in the Purus-Madeira interfluvial area that is crossed by the BR-319 highway. We relate stand age and wood biomass productivity to hydrological and edaphic conditions. Mean productivity and stand age were 5.6 ± 1.1 Mg ha-1 yr-1 and 102 ± 18 yr, respectively. There is a strong relationship between tree age and diameter, as well as between mean diameter increment and mean wood density within a plot. Regarding the soil hydromorphic properties we find a positive correlation with wood biomass productivity and a negative relationship with stand age. Productivity also shows a positive correlation with the superficial phosphorus concentration. In addition, superficial phosphorus concentration increases with enhanced soil hydromorphic condition. We raise three hypotheses to explain these results: (1) the reduction of iron molecules on the saturated soils with plinthite layers close to the surface releases available phosphorous for the plants; (2) the poor structure of the saturated soils creates an environmental filter selecting tree species of faster growth rates and shorter life spans and (3) plant growth on saturated soil is favored during the dry season, since there should be low restrictions for soil water availability.

Birth weight and other perinatal characteristics and childhood leukemia in California.

PubMed

Oksuzyan, S; Crespi, C M; Cockburn, M; Mezei, G; Kheifets, L

2012-12-01

We conducted a large registry-based study in California to investigate the association of perinatal factors and childhood leukemia with analysis of two major subtypes, acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We linked California cancer and birth registries to obtain information on 5788 cases and 5788 controls matched on age and sex (1:1). We examined the association of birth weight, gestational age, birth and pregnancy order, parental ages, and specific conditions during pregnancy and risk of total leukemia, ALL and AML using conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for potential confounders. The odds ratio (OR) per 1000 g increase in birth weight was 1.11 for both total leukemia and ALL. The OR were highest for babies weighing ≥ 4500 g with reference < 2500 g: 1.59 (95% CI: 1.05-2.40) and 1.70 (95% CI: 1.08-2.68) for total leukemia and ALL, respectively. For AML, increase in risk was also observed but the estimate was imprecise due to small numbers. Compared to average-for-gestational age (AGA), large-for-gestational age (LGA) babies were at slightly increased risk of total childhood leukemia (OR = 1.10) and both ALL and AML (OR = 1.07 and OR = 1.13, respectively) but estimates were imprecise. Being small-for-gestational age (SGA) was associated with reduced risk of childhood leukemia (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97) and ALL (OR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.63-0.94), but not AML. Being first-born was associated with decreased risk of AML only (OR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53-0.93). Compared to children with paternal age <25 years, children with paternal age between 35 and 45 years were at increased risk of total childhood leukemia (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04-1.40) and ALL (OR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.04-1.47). None of conditions during pregnancy examined or maternal age were associated with increased risk of childhood leukemia or its subtypes. Our results suggest that high birth weight and LGA were associated with increased risk and SGA with decreased risk of total childhood leukemia and ALL, being first-born was associated with decreased risk of AML, and advanced paternal age was associated with increased risk of ALL. These findings suggest that associations of childhood leukemia and perinatal factors depend highly on subtype of leukemia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth characteristics and otolith analysis on age-0 American shad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauter, Sally T.; Wetzel, Lisa A.

2011-01-01

Otolith microstructure analysis provides useful information on the growth history of fish (Campana and Jones 1992, Bang and Gronkjaer 2005). Microstructure analysis can be used to construct the size-at-age growth trajectory of fish, determine daily growth rates, and estimate hatch date and other ecologically important life history events (Campana and Jones 1992, Tonkin et al. 2008). This kind of information can be incorporated into bioenergetics modeling, providing necessary data for estimating prey consumption, and guiding the development of empirically-based modeling scenarios for hypothesis testing. For example, age-0 American shad co-occur with emigrating juvenile fall Chinook salmon originating from Hanford Reach and the Snake River in the lower Columbia River reservoirs during the summer and early fall. The diet of age-0 American shad appears to overlap with that of juvenile fall Chinook salmon (Chapter 1, this reoprt), but juvenile fall Chinook salmon are also known to feed on age-0 American shad in the reservoirs (USGS unpublished data). Abundant, energy-dense age-0 American shad may provide juvenile fall Chinook salmon opportunities for rapid growth during the time period when large number of age-0 American shad are available. Otolith analysis of hatch dates and the growth curve of age-0 American shad could be used to identify when eggs, larvae, and juveniles of specific size classes are temporally available as food for fall Chinook salmon in the lower Columbia River reservoirs. This kind of temporally and spatially explicit life history information is important to include in bioenergetics modeling scenarios. Quantitive estimates of prey consumption could be used with spatially-explicit estimates of prey abundance to construct a quantitative assessment of the age-0 American shad impact on a reservoir food web.

Analysis of the age-0 American shad growth trajectory or individual growth records may show evidence of differential growth rates over time that may be linked to environmental conditions such as water temperature (Leach and Houde 1999, Meekan et al. 2003), size-selective mortality (Folkvord et al. 1997), developmental changes in metabolic rate (Bang and Gronkjaer 2005, Bochdanksy et al. 2005), feeding ability (Schmitt and Holbrook 1984, Luecke 1986, Johnson and Dropkin 1995, Johnson and Dropkin 1996), and intra- and inter-specific competition (Crecco and Savoy 1987, Marchand and Boisclair 1998, Gadomski and Wagner 2009). For example, environmental conditions associated with John Day reservoir may eliminate or reduce the availability of many aquatic and terrestrial insect prey types (Rondorf et al. 1990). Many juvenile fishes, including age-0 American shad and juvenile fall Chinook salmon may be foraging on limited insect prey in John Day Reservoir (Gadomski and Wagner 2009). Because larger insect prey has higher energy densities than most zooplankton prey, and insect availability may be limited in John Day reservoir, the growth of American shad may be constrained once fish grow to a size where they could exploit larger, more energy-dense insect prey (Mayer and Wahl 1997).

Similarly, as age-0 American shad grow, they are able to forage on larger zooplankton with higher energy densities than smaller individuals of the same species, or other smaller-bodied zooplankton species (Schael et al. 1991, Mayer and Wahl 1997). Intra- and inter-specific demand for larger-bodied and higher energy zooplankton prey may reduce the availability of these prey items (Tabor et al. 1996). Constrained growth increments on the otolith microstructure of juvenile American shad or other planktivorous fish could help identify important interactions between fishes that may be linked to the year class strength of age-0 American shad and prey partitioning in John Day reservoir.

The objective of this study was to determine time of hatch and size-at-age of age-0 American shad in lower Columbia River reservoirs for use with the American shad and fall Chinook salmon bioenergetic models. Size-at-age data on age-0 American shad can be used to generate quantitative estimates of prey consumption with the American shad bioenergetics model. Otolith microstructure analysis was used to provide reference points on the temporal availability of early life stages and sizes of American shad in the reservoir (Limburg 1996a,b, Limburg et al. 1999). Additional analyses on the age-0 American shad growth trajectory in John Day reservoir may reveal differential growth patterns during the early life history of these fish that are linked to developmental differences between individual fish, transient environmental conditions, or food web constraints (Limburg 1996a).

Eliminating Survivor Bias in Two-stage Instrumental Variable Estimators.

PubMed

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric

2018-07-01

Mendelian randomization studies commonly focus on elderly populations. This makes the instrumental variables analysis of such studies sensitive to survivor bias, a type of selection bias. A particular concern is that the instrumental variable conditions, even when valid for the source population, may be violated for the selective population of individuals who survive the onset of the study. This is potentially very damaging because Mendelian randomization studies are known to be sensitive to bias due to even minor violations of the instrumental variable conditions. Interestingly, the instrumental variable conditions continue to hold within certain risk sets of individuals who are still alive at a given age when the instrument and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the exposure, and moreover, the exposure and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the hazard of death. In this article, we will exploit this property to derive a two-stage instrumental variable estimator for the effect of exposure on mortality, which is insulated against the above described selection bias under these additivity assumptions.

Epidemiology and Impact of Health Care Provider-Diagnosed Anxiety and Depression Among US Children.

PubMed

Bitsko, Rebecca H; Holbrook, Joseph R; Ghandour, Reem M; Blumberg, Stephen J; Visser, Susanna N; Perou, Ruth; Walkup, John T

2018-06-01

This study documents the prevalence and impact of anxiety and depression in US children based on the parent report of health care provider diagnosis. National Survey of Children's Health data from 2003, 2007, and 2011-2012 were analyzed to estimate the prevalence of anxiety or depression among children aged 6 to 17 years. Estimates were based on the parent report of being told by a health care provider that their child had the specified condition. Sociodemographic characteristics, co-occurrence of other conditions, health care use, school measures, and parenting aggravation were estimated using 2011-2012 data. Based on the parent report, lifetime diagnosis of anxiety or depression among children aged 6 to 17 years increased from 5.4% in 2003 to 8.4% in 2011-2012. Current anxiety or depression increased from 4.7% in 2007 to 5.3% in 2011-2012; current anxiety increased significantly, whereas current depression did not change. Anxiety and depression were associated with increased risk of co-occurring conditions, health care use, school problems, and having parents with high parenting aggravation. Children with anxiety or depression with effective care coordination or a medical home were less likely to have unmet health care needs or parents with high parenting aggravation. By parent report, more than 1 in 20 US children had current anxiety or depression in 2011-2012. Both were associated with significant comorbidity and impact on children and families. These findings may inform efforts to improve the health and well-being of children with internalizing disorders. Future research is needed to determine why child anxiety diagnoses seem to have increased from 2007 to 2012.

In vivo estimation of normal amygdala volume from structural MRI scans with anatomical-based segmentation.

PubMed

Siozopoulos, Achilleas; Thomaidis, Vasilios; Prassopoulos, Panos; Fiska, Aliki

2018-02-01

Literature includes a number of studies using structural MRI (sMRI) to determine the volume of the amygdala, which is modified in various pathologic conditions. The reported values vary widely mainly because of different anatomical approaches to the complex. This study aims at estimating of the normal amygdala volume from sMRI scans using a recent anatomical definition described in a study based on post-mortem material. The amygdala volume has been calculated in 106 healthy subjects, using sMRI and anatomical-based segmentation. The resulting volumes have been analyzed for differences related to hemisphere, sex, and age. The mean amygdalar volume was estimated at 1.42 cm 3 . The mean right amygdala volume has been found larger than the left, but the difference for the raw values was within the limits of the method error. No intersexual differences or age-related alterations have been observed. The study provides a method for determining the boundaries of the amygdala in sMRI scans based on recent anatomical considerations and an estimation of the mean normal amygdala volume from a quite large number of scans for future use in comparative studies.

Current interventions in the management of knee osteoarthritis

PubMed Central

Bhatia, Dinesh; Bejarano, Tatiana; Novo, Mario

2013-01-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is progressive joint disease characterized by joint inflammation and a reparative bone response and is one of the top five most disabling conditions that affects more than one-third of persons > 65 years of age, with an average estimation of about 30 million Americans currently affected by this disease. Global estimates reveal more than 100 million people are affected by OA. The financial expenditures for the care of persons with OA are estimated at a total annual national cost estimate of $15.5-$28.6 billion per year. As the number of people >65 years increases, so does the prevalence of OA and the need for cost-effective treatment and care. Developing a treatment strategy which encompasses the underlying physiology of degenerative joint disease is crucial, but it should be considerate to the different age ranges and different population needs. This paper focuses on different exercise and treatment protocols (pharmacological and non-pharmacological), the outcomes of a rehabilitation center, clinician-directed program versus an at home directed individual program to view what parameters are best at reducing pain, increasing functional independence, and reducing cost for persons diagnosed with knee OA. PMID:23559821

Potential effects of regional pumpage on groundwater age distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zinn, Brendan A.; Konikow, Leonard F.

2007-01-01

Groundwater ages estimated from environmental tracers can help calibrate groundwater flow models. Groundwater age represents a mixture of traveltimes, with the distribution of ages determined by the detailed structure of the flow field, which can be prone to significant transient variability. Effects of pumping on age distribution were assessed using direct age simulation in a hypothetical layered aquifer system. A steady state predevelopment age distribution was computed first. A well field was then introduced, and pumpage caused leakage into the confined aquifer of older water from an overlying confining unit. Large changes in simulated groundwater ages occurred in both the aquifer and the confining unit at high pumping rates, and the effects propagated a substantial distance downgradient from the wells. The range and variance of ages contributing to the well increased substantially during pumping. The results suggest that the groundwater age distribution in developed aquifers may be affected by transient leakage from low‐permeability material, such as confining units, under certain hydrogeologic conditions.

Burden of disability attributable to vertigo and dizziness in the aged: results from the KORA-Age study.

PubMed

Mueller, Martin; Strobl, Ralf; Jahn, Klaus; Linkohr, Birgit; Peters, Annette; Grill, Eva

2014-10-01

Complaints of vertigo and dizziness are common in primary care in the aged. They can be caused by distinct vestibular disorders, but can also be a symptom in other conditions like non-vestibular sensory loss, vascular encephalopathy or anxiety. The aim of this study was to investigate the specific contribution of vertigo and dizziness to the total burden of disability in aged persons when controlling for the presence of other health conditions. Data originate from the MONICA/KORA study, a population-based cohort. Survivors of the original cohorts who were 65 years and older were examined by telephone interview in 2009. Disability was assessed with the Health Assessment Questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders and additive regression to estimate the contribution of vertigo and dizziness to disability prevalence. Adjusted for age, sex and other chronic conditions, vertigo and dizziness were associated with disability (odds ratio 1.66, 95% confidence intervals 1.40-1.98). In both men and women between 65 and 79 years, vertigo and dizziness were among the strongest contributors to the burden of disability with a prevalence of 10.5% (6.6 to 15.1) in men and 9.0% (5.7 to 13.0) in women. In men, this effect is stable across all age-groups, whereas it decreases with age in women. Vertigo and dizziness independently and relevantly contribute to population-attributable disability in the aged. They are not inevitable consequences of ageing but arise from distinct disease entities. Careful management of vertigo and dizziness might increase population health and reduce disability. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Effects of Temperature and Adult Diet on Development of Hypertrophied Fat Body in Prediapausing Boll Weevil (Coleoptera Curculionidae)

Treesearch

Terence L. Wagner; Eric J. Villavaso

1999-01-01

This study examines the effects of temperature and adult diet on the development of hypertrophied fat bodies in prediapausing adult boll weevils, Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman. Simulation models derived from this work are used to estimate the minimal ages at which male and female boll weevils exhibit diapause morphology, based on conditions...

Species Identification and Design Value Estimation of Wooden Members in Covered Bridges

Treesearch

Alex C. Wiedenhoeft; David E. Kretschmann

2014-01-01

Covered timber bridges are historic structures with unique aesthetic value. To preserve this value and maintain bridges in service, robust evaluation of their performance and safety is necessary. The strength of the timber found in covered bridges can vary considerably, not only because of age and condition, but also because of species and grade. For the practicing...

Antidepressant Use among Persons Aged 12 and Over: United States, 2011-2014. NCHS Data Brief. Number 283

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, Laura A.; Brody, Debra J.; Gu, Qiuping

2017-01-01

Antidepressants are one of the three most commonly used therapeutic drug classes in the United States. While the majority of antidepressants are taken to treat depression, antidepressants can also be taken to treat other conditions, like anxiety disorders. This Data Brief provides the most recent estimates of antidepressant use in the U.S.…

Estimating canopy fuels in conifer forests

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt

2002-01-01

Crown fires occur in a variety of coniferous forest types (Agee 1993), including some that are not historically prone to crown fire, such as ponderosa pine (Mutch and others 1993). The head fire spread rate of a crown fire is usually several times faster than that of a surface fire burning under the same conditions, which leads to a significant increase in the number...

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

1999-06-01

The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

Is secondary preventive care improving? Observational study of 10-year trends in emergency admissions for conditions amenable to ambulatory care

PubMed Central

Bardsley, Martin; Blunt, Ian; Davies, Sian; Dixon, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Objective To identify trends in emergency admissions for patients with clinical conditions classed as ‘ambulatory care sensitive’ (ACS) and assess if reductions might be due to improvements in preventive care. Design Observational study of routinely collected hospital admission data from March 2001 to April 2011. Admission rates were calculated at the population level using national population estimates for area of residence. Participants All emergency admissions to National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England from April 2001 to March 2011 for people residents in England. Main outcome measures Age-standardised emergency admissions rates for each of 27 specific ACS conditions (ICD-10 codes recorded as primary or secondary diagnoses). Results Between April 2001 and March 2011 the number of admissions for ACS conditions increased by 40%. When ACS conditions were defined solely on primary diagnosis, the increase was less at 35% and similar to the increase in emergency admissions for non-ACS conditions. Age-standardised rates of emergency admission for ACS conditions had increased by 25%, and there were notable variations by age group and by individual condition. Overall, the greatest increases were for urinary tract infection, pyelonephritis, pneumonia, gastroenteritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There were significant reductions in emergency admission rates for angina, perforated ulcers and pelvic inflammatory diseases but the scale of these successes was relatively small. Conclusions Increases in rates of emergency admissions suggest that efforts to improve the preventive management of certain clinical conditions have failed to reduce the demand for emergency care. Tackling the demand for hospital care needs more radical approaches than those adopted hitherto if reductions in emergency admission rates for ACS conditions overall are to be seen as a positive outcome of for NHS. PMID:23288268

The effects of quantity and depth of processing on children's time perception.

PubMed

Arlin, M

1986-08-01

Two experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of quantity and depth of processing on children's time perception. These experiments tested the appropriateness of two adult time-perception models (attentional and storage size) for younger ages. Children were given stimulus sets of equal time which varied by level of processing (deep/shallow) and quantity (list length). In the first experiment, 28 children in Grade 6 reproduced presentation times of various quantities of pictures under deep (living/nonliving categorization) or shallow (repeating label) conditions. Students also compared pairs of durations. In the second experiment, 128 children in Grades K, 2, 4, and 6 reproduced presentation times under similar conditions with three or six pictures and with deep or shallow processing requirements. Deep processing led to decreased estimation of time. Higher quantity led to increased estimation of time. Comparative judgments were influenced by quantity. The interaction between age and depth of processing was significant. Older children were more affected by depth differences than were younger children. Results were interpreted as supporting different aspects of each adult model as explanations of children's time perception. The processing effect supported the attentional model and the quantity effect supported the storage size model.

Degradation diagnosis of aged Li4Ti5O12/LiFePO4 batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaing, Rémi; Reynier, Yvan; Dupré, Nicolas; Schleich, Donald; Jouanneau Si Larbi, Séverine; Guyomard, Dominique; Moreau, Philippe

2014-12-01

Li4Ti5O12/LiFePO4 cells are cycled under 4 different conditions of discharge profile (galvanostatic or driving-based) and cycling rates (C/8 or 1C) during 4-5 months. All the cells exhibit capacity fade whose extent is not correlated with the aging condition. In order to understand aging phenomena, cells are disassembled at the end of cycle life and the recovered electrodes are analyzed using electrochemistry, electron microscopy, XRD and MAS-NMR. Positive and negative electrodes show no loss in active material and no change in electrochemical activity, active material structure and composite electrode structure. This rules out any irreversible electrode degradation. Lithium stoichiometry estimated by both XRD and electrochemistry is unexpectedly low in the positive electrode when the aging is stopped at full discharge. That indicates a loss of cyclable lithium or electrons leading to cell balancing evolution. That loss may have been caused by parasitic reactions occurring at both electrodes, in accordance with their rich surface chemistry as evidenced by MAS-NMR.

Multimorbidity prevalence and patterns across socioeconomic determinants: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Agborsangaya, Calypse B; Lau, Darren; Lahtinen, Markus; Cooke, Tim; Johnson, Jeffrey A

2012-03-19

Studies on the prevalence of multimorbidity, defined as having two or more chronic conditions, have predominantly focused on the elderly. We estimated the prevalence and specific patterns of multimorbidity across different adult age groups. Furthermore, we examined the associations of multimorbidity with socio-demographic factors. Using data from the Health Quality Council of Alberta (HQCA) 2010 Patient Experience Survey, the prevalence of self reported multimorbidity was assessed by telephone interview among a sample of 5010 adults (18 years and over) from the general population. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the association between a range of socio-demographic factors and multimorbidity. The overall age- and sex-standardized prevalence of multimorbidity was 19.0% in the surveyed general population. Of those with multimorbidity, 70.2% were aged less than 65 years. The most common pairing of chronic conditions was chronic pain and arthritis. Age, sex, income and family structure were independently associated with multimorbidity. Multimorbidity is a common occurrence in the general adult population, and is not limited to the elderly. Future prevention programs and practice guidelines should take into account the common patterns of multimorbidity.

The Health-Related Quality of Life for Patients with Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS).

PubMed

Falk Hvidberg, Michael; Brinth, Louise Schouborg; Olesen, Anne V; Petersen, Karin D; Ehlers, Lars

2015-01-01

Myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME)/chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is a common, severe condition affecting 0.2 to 0.4 per cent of the population. Even so, no recent international EQ-5D based health-related quality of life (HRQoL) estimates exist for ME/CFS patients. The main purpose of this study was to estimate HRQoL scores using the EQ-5D-3L with Danish time trade-off tariffs. Secondary, the aims were to explore whether the results are not influenced by other conditions using regression, to compare the estimates to 20 other conditions and finally to present ME/CFS patient characteristics for use in clinical practice. All members of the Danish ME/CFS Patient Association in 2013 (n=319) were asked to fill out a questionnaire including the EQ-5D-3L. From these, 105 ME/CFS patients were identified and gave valid responses. Unadjusted EQ-5D-3L means were calculated and compared to the population mean as well as to the mean of 20 other conditions. Furthermore, adjusted estimates were calculated using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, adjusting for gender, age, education, and co-morbidity of 18 self-reported conditions. Data from the North Denmark Health Profile 2010 was used as population reference in the regression analysis (n=23,392). The unadjusted EQ-5D-3L mean of ME/CFS was 0.47 [0.41-0.53] compared to a population mean of 0.85 [0.84-0.86]. The OLS regression estimated a disutility of -0.29 [-0.21;-0.34] for ME/CFS patients in this study. The characteristics of ME/CFS patients are different from the population with respect to gender, relationship, employment etc. The EQ-5D-3L-based HRQoL of ME/CFS is significantly lower than the population mean and the lowest of all the compared conditions. The adjusted analysis confirms that poor HRQoL of ME/CFS is distinctly different from and not a proxy of the other included conditions. However, further studies are needed to exclude the possible selection bias of the current study.

Participation in the Juntos Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Peru Is Associated with Changes in Child Anthropometric Status but Not Language Development or School Achievement1234

PubMed Central

Andersen, Christopher T; Reynolds, Sarah A; Behrman, Jere R; Crookston, Benjamin T; Dearden, Kirk A; Escobal, Javier; Mani, Subha; Sánchez, Alan; Stein, Aryeh D; Fernald, Lia CH

2015-01-01

Background: It is unclear what effects a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program would have on child anthropometry, language development, or school achievement in the context of the nutrition transition experienced by many low- and middle-income countries. Objective: We estimated the association of participation in Peru’s Juntos CCT with anthropometry, language development, and school achievement among children aged 7–8 y. Methods: We used data from the Young Lives Study of a cohort born between 2001 and 2002. We estimated associations of the Juntos program with height-for-age z score (HAZ), body mass index–for–age z score (BAZ), stunting, and overweight at age 7–8 y separately for children participating in the program for ≥2 y (n = 169) and children participating for <2 y (n = 188). We then estimated associations with receptive vocabulary and grade achievement among children who had been assessed at age 4–6 y before enrollment in Juntos (n = 243). We identified control subjects using propensity score matching and conducted difference-in-differences comparisons. Results: Juntos participation was associated with increases in HAZ among boys participating for ≥2 y [average effect of treatment among the treated (ATT): 0.43; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.77; P = 0.01] and for boys participating for <2 y (ATT: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.80; P < 0.01). Among girls participating in the program for ≥2 y, BAZ declined (ATT: –0.60; 95% CI: –1.00, –0.21; P < 0.01) as did the prevalence of overweight (ATT: –22.0 percentage points; 95% CI: –42.5, –2.7 percentage points; P = 0.03). We observed no significant associations of Juntos participation with receptive vocabulary or grade attainment. Conclusions: CCT program participation in Peru was associated with better linear growth among boys and decreased BAZ among girls, highlighting that a large-scale poverty-alleviation intervention may influence anthropometric outcomes in the context of the nutrition transition. PMID:26269237

Participation in the Juntos Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Peru Is Associated with Changes in Child Anthropometric Status but Not Language Development or School Achievement.

PubMed

Andersen, Christopher T; Reynolds, Sarah A; Behrman, Jere R; Crookston, Benjamin T; Dearden, Kirk A; Escobal, Javier; Mani, Subha; Sánchez, Alan; Stein, Aryeh D; Fernald, Lia C H

2015-10-01

It is unclear what effects a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program would have on child anthropometry, language development, or school achievement in the context of the nutrition transition experienced by many low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the association of participation in Peru's Juntos CCT with anthropometry, language development, and school achievement among children aged 7-8 y. We used data from the Young Lives Study of a cohort born between 2001 and 2002. We estimated associations of the Juntos program with height-for-age z score (HAZ), body mass index-for-age z score (BAZ), stunting, and overweight at age 7-8 y separately for children participating in the program for ≥2 y (n = 169) and children participating for <2 y (n = 188). We then estimated associations with receptive vocabulary and grade achievement among children who had been assessed at age 4-6 y before enrollment in Juntos (n = 243). We identified control subjects using propensity score matching and conducted difference-in-differences comparisons. Juntos participation was associated with increases in HAZ among boys participating for ≥2 y [average effect of treatment among the treated (ATT): 0.43; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.77; P = 0.01] and for boys participating for <2 y (ATT: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.80; P < 0.01). Among girls participating in the program for ≥2 y, BAZ declined (ATT: -0.60; 95% CI: -1.00, -0.21; P < 0.01) as did the prevalence of overweight (ATT: -22.0 percentage points; 95% CI: -42.5, -2.7 percentage points; P = 0.03). We observed no significant associations of Juntos participation with receptive vocabulary or grade attainment. CCT program participation in Peru was associated with better linear growth among boys and decreased BAZ among girls, highlighting that a large-scale poverty-alleviation intervention may influence anthropometric outcomes in the context of the nutrition transition. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Validation of daily increments and a marine-entry check in the otoliths of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka post-smolts.

PubMed

Freshwater, C; Trudel, M; Beacham, T D; Neville, C-E; Tucker, S; Juanes, F

2015-07-01

Juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka that were reared and smolted in laboratory conditions were found to produce otolith daily increments, as well as a consistently visible marine-entry check formed during their transition to salt water. Field-collected O. nerka post-smolts of an equivalent age also displayed visible checks; however, microchemistry estimates of marine-entry date using Sr:Ca ratios differed from visual estimates by c. 9 days suggesting that microstructural and microchemical processes occur on different time scales. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Value of parents' estimates of children's developmental ages.

PubMed

Glascoe, F P; Sandler, H

1995-11-01

To determine whether parents' estimates of children's developmental ages can function as a prescreening technique. Parents of 234 children from birth to 77 months of age seeking well-child care in pediatric offices were queried in two separate studies. In the first study, parents were asked to give an estimate of their child's overall developmental age and, in the second study, to estimate ages in each of six developmental domains. Children were administered a range of screening measures of intelligence, speech-language, and adoptive behavior. The overall age-estimate, if less than chronologic age, was 75% sensitive to likely developmental problems and, if equal to or greater than chronologic age, was 90% specific in identifying children likely to have typical development. Age estimates for each developmental domain were 81% sensitive to likely developmental problems if less than chronologic age in the domains of fine motor, language, grass motor, or behavior, and 62% specific if equal to or greater than chronologic age. Estimates at or below chronologic age in receptive language or personal-social domains were 90% sensitive and 43% specific in identifying likely behavior problems. There were no differences in the accuracy of parents estimates on the basis of children's age, gender, race, parents' level of education, or parenting experience. Parents' overall age-estimates provided a sensitive and specific indicator of global developmental status, but insufficient information about strengths and weaknesses to enable focused referrals for services. In contrast, discrete patterns of age estimates in each developmental domain sensitively discriminated children with developmental versus behavioral problems, although specificity was limited. Age estimates appear to be a potentially helpful method for identifying a subset of children in need of thorough screening, although further research is needed on a larger sample given diagnostic rather than screening tests.

Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Doblhammer, Gabriele; Christensen, Kaare

2009-05-01

We analyze causal effects of conditions early in life on the individual mortality rate later in life. Conditions early in life are captured by transitory features of the macro-environment around birth, notably the state of the business cycle around birth, but also food price deviations, weather indicators, and demographic indicators. We argue that these features can only affect high-age mortality by way of the individual early-life conditions. Moreover, they are exogenous from the individual point of view, which is a methodological advantage compared to the use of unique characteristics of the newborn individual or his or her family or household as early-life indicators. We collected national annual time-series data on the above-mentioned indicators, and we combine these to the individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births in 1873-1906. The empirical analyses (mostly based on the estimation of duration models) indicate a significant negative causal effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rates at higher ages. If the national economic performance in the year of birth exceeds its trend value (i.e., if the business cycle is favorable) then the mortality rate later in life is lower. The implied effect on the median lifetime of those who survive until age 35 is about 10 months. A systematic empirical exploration of all macro-indicators reveals that economic conditions in the first years after birth also affect mortality rates later in life.

Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2010-01-01

Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

Independent and inverse association of healthcare utilisation with physical activity in older adults with multiple chronic conditions.

PubMed

Liu-Ambrose, T Y L; Ashe, M C; Marra, C

2010-11-01

In this study, whether physical activity is independently associated with direct healthcare costs in community-dwelling older adults with multiple chronic conditions was examined. Cross-sectional analysis. Research laboratory. 299 community-dwelling men and women volunteers aged 65 years and older with chronic conditions. None. Primary dependent variable was direct healthcare costs incurred in the previous 3 months. Participants completed the Health Resource Utilisation (HRU) questionnaire. To estimate HRU, direct costs in the previous 3 months were calculated using the three-party payer perspective of the British Columbia Ministry of Health, deemed representative of the Canadian healthcare system costs. For medications, the Retail Pharmacy Dispensed prescription cost tables were used. Primary independent variables were (1) self-report current level of physical activity as assessed by the Physical Activity Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD) and (2) general balance and mobility as assessed by the National Institute on Aging Balance Scale. The mean number of chronic conditions per participant was six. Current level of physical activity was independently and inversely associated with HRU. Age, sex, number of chronic conditions, global cognitive function, body mass index, and general balance and mobility together accounted for 24.3% of the total variance. Adding the PASIPD score resulted in an R2 change of 3.3% and significantly improved the model. The total variance accounted by the final model was 27.6%. Physical activity promotion may reduce healthcare costs in older adults with chronic conditions.

Status Report - Cane Fiberboard Properties And Degradation Rates For Storage Of The 9975 Shipping Package In KAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daugherty, W.

Thermal, mechanical and physical properties have been measured on cane fiberboard samples following accelerated aging for up to approximately 10 years. The aging environments have included elevated temperature < 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. The results from this testing have been analyzed, and aging models fit to the data. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in KAC, these models allow developmentmore » of service life predictions.« less

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function for estimating pliocene-Holocene paleoceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Poore, R.Z.

1990-01-01

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function (GSF18) related 5 North Atlantic assemblages to winter and summer sea surface temperature. GSF18, based on recombined and simplified core top census data, preserves most environmental information and reproduces modern North Atlantic conditions with approximately the same accuracy as previous transfer functions, but can be more readily applied to faunal samples ranging in age from Pliocene to Holocene. Transfer function GSF18 has been applied to faunal data from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 552A to produce a 2.5 m.y. sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. Estimates show several periods between 2.3 and 4.6 Ma during which mean SST's were both several degrees warmer and several degrees cooler than modern conditions. Between 2.9 and 4.0 Ma SST was generally warmer than modern except for a 250 k.y. interval centered at 3.3 Ma. Maximum SST, with respect to modern conditions, occurred after the cool interval near 3.1 Ma when SST was approximately 3.6??C warmer than present conditions. Comparison of SST estimates with stable isotope data suggest that after peak warming at 3.1 Ma, there was an overall surface water cooling with concomitant build up of global ice volume, culminating in Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This event is also indicated by the presence of ice rafted detritus in 552A sediments at about 2.45 Ma. ?? 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

Health-related quality of life among adults 65 years and older in the United States, 2011-2012: a multilevel small area estimation approach.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Hsiu; McLain, Alexander C; Probst, Janice C; Bennett, Kevin J; Qureshi, Zaina P; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop county-level estimates of poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among aged 65 years and older U.S. adults and to identify spatial clusters of poor HRQOL using a multilevel, poststratification approach. Multilevel, random-intercept models were fit to HRQOL data (two domains: physical health and mental health) from the 2011-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using a poststratification, small area estimation approach, we generated county-level probabilities of having poor HRQOL for each domain in U.S. adults aged 65 and older, and validated our model-based estimates against state and county direct estimates. County-level estimates of poor HRQOL in the United States ranged from 18.07% to 44.81% for physical health and 14.77% to 37.86% for mental health. Correlations between model-based and direct estimates were higher for physical than mental HRQOL. Counties located in the Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi exhibited the worst physical HRQOL scores, but this pattern did not hold for mental HRQOL, which had the highest probability of mentally unhealthy days in Illinois, Indiana, and Vermont. Substantial geographic variation in physical and mental HRQOL scores exists among older U.S. adults. State and local policy makers should consider these local conditions in targeting interventions and policies to counties with high levels of poor HRQOL scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age-dependent associations between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer risk.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Giles, Graham G; Sinclair, Rod; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Severi, Gianluca

2013-02-01

Both prostate cancer and androgenetic alopecia are strongly age-related conditions that are considered to be androgen dependent, but studies of the relationship between them have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to assess whether androgenetic alopecia at ages 20 and 40 years are associated with risk of prostate cancer. At a follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, men were asked to assess their hair pattern at ages 20 and 40 years relative to eight categories in showcards. Cases were men notified to the Victorian Cancer Registry with prostate cancer diagnosed between cohort enrollment (1990-1994) and follow-up attendance (2003-2009). Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate age-varying HRs and predicted cumulative probabilities of prostate cancer by androgenetic alopecia categories. Of 9,448 men that attended follow-up and provided data on androgenetic alopecia, we identified 476 prostate cancer cases during a median follow-up of 11 years four months. Cumulative probability of prostate cancer was greater at all ages up to 76 years, for men with vertex versus no androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years. At age of 76 years, the estimated probabilities converged to 0.15. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at 40 years was also associated with younger age of diagnosis for prostate cancer cases. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years might be a marker of increased risk of early-onset prostate cancer. If confirmed, these results suggest that the apparently conflicting findings of previous studies might be explained by failure to adequately model the age-varying nature of the association between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer.

Annual report on health care for children and youth in the United States: national estimates of cost, utilization and expenditures for children with mental health conditions.

PubMed

Torio, Celeste Marie; Encinosa, William; Berdahl, Terceira; McCormick, Marie C; Simpson, Lisa A

2015-01-01

To examine national trends in hospital utilization, costs, and expenditures for children with mental health conditions. The analyses of children aged 1 to 17 are based on AHRQ's 2006 and 2011 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) databases, and on AHRQ's pooled 2006 to 2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). All estimates are nationally representative, and standard errors account for the complex survey designs. Although overall all-cause children's hospitalizations did not increase between 2006 and 2011, hospitalizations for all listed mental health conditions increased by nearly 50% among children aged 10 to 14 years, and by 21% for emergency department (ED) visits. Behavioral disorders experienced a shift in underlying patterns between 2006 and 2011: inpatient stays for alcohol-related disorders declined by 44%, but ED visits increased by 34% for substance-related disorders and by 71% for impulse control disorders. Inpatient visits for suicide, suicidal ideation, and self-injury increased by 104% for children ages 1 to 17 years, and by 151% for children ages 10 to 14 years during this period. A total of $11.6 billion was spent on hospital visits for mental health during this period. Medicaid covered half of the inpatient visits, but with 50% to 30% longer length of stays in 2006 and 2011, respectively, than private payers. Medicaid's overall share of the ED visits increased from 45% in 2006 to 53% in 2011. These alarming trends highlight the renewed need for research on mental health care for children. This study also provides a baseline for evaluating the impact of the Affordable Care Act and the mental health parity legislation on mental health utilization and expenditures for children. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Prevalence of hypogonadism in males aged at least 45 years: the HIM study

PubMed Central

MULLIGAN, T; FRICK, MF; ZURAW, QC; STEMHAGEN, A; MCWHIRTER, C

2006-01-01

The Hypogonadism in Males study estimated the prevalence of hypogonadism [total testosterone (TT) <300 ng/dl] in men aged ≥45 years visiting primary care practices in the United States. A blood sample was obtained between 8 am and noon and assayed for TT, free testosterone (FT) and bioavailable testosterone (BAT). Common symptoms of hypogonadism, comorbid conditions, demographics and reason for visit were recorded. Of 2162 patients, 836 were hypogonadal, with 80 receiving testosterone. Crude prevalence rate of hypogonadism was 38.7%. Similar trends were observed for FT and BAT. Among men not receiving testosterone, 756 (36.3%) were hypogonadal; odds ratios for having hypogonadism were significantly higher in men with hypertension (1.84), hyperlipidaemia (1.47), diabetes (2.09), obesity (2.38), prostate disease (1.29) and asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.40) than in men without these conditions. The prevalence of hypogonadism was 38.7% in men aged ≥45 years presenting to primary care offices. PMID:16846397

Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiners, William A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K.G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D.S.

2002-01-01

[1] The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiners, W. A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K. G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D. S.

2002-12-01

The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

PubMed

Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

2012-06-01

To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Tooth coronal index and pulp/tooth ratio in dental age estimation on digital panoramic radiographs-A comparative study.

PubMed

Jain, Supreet; Nagi, Ravleen; Daga, Minal; Shandilya, Ashutosh; Shukla, Aastha; Parakh, Abhinav; Laheji, Afshan; Singh, Rahul

2017-08-01

Assessment of an age of an individual whether living or dead through teeth is one of the most reliable and simple method to calculate age than skeletal remains especially when they are in poor conditions. The study was carried out with aim of (i) to evaluate reliability of dental age assessment through two different methods for adults i.e. tooth coronal index and pulp/tooth ratio using digital panoramic radiographs and (ii) to compare these methods for their accuracy in age determination. The digital panoramic radiographs of 180 subjects of Chhattisgarh aged 15-70 years were selected for the study. The measurements were performed on the JPEG images of selected panoramic radiographs by using Adobe Acrobat 7.0 professional software. For tooth coronal index (TCI), height of the crown i.e. coronal height (CH) and the height of the coronal pulp cavity i.e. coronal pulp cavity height (CPCH) of mandibular second premolars and first molars was measured in millimeter (mm) and then TCI was calculated for each tooth and calculated age was compared with chronological age. For pulp/tooth ratio, the measurements of pulp chamber height (PCH) and crown root trunk height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth, the pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of selected tooth were calculated. The acquired data were subjected to Pearson correlation test, unpaired t test and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) analysis. Results suggested that TCI (mandibular first molar r=-0.178), second premolar (r=-0.187) and PCTHR(mandibular first molar r=-0.921, second molar r=-0.901) correlated negatively with chronological age suggesting decrease in size of pulp cavity. Mandibular first molar was found to be most reliable tooth to estimate dental age. The study showed that both PCTHR and TCI have negative association with chronological age. PCTHR showed slightly higher negative correlation and proved as a better tool for age estimation than TCI. Statistically significant differences were observed between chronological and calculated age by both methods thus emphasizing the need for future clinical trials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic losses and burden of disease by medical conditions in Norway.

PubMed

Kinge, Jonas Minet; Sælensminde, Kjartan; Dieleman, Joseph; Vollset, Stein Emil; Norheim, Ole Frithjof

2017-06-01

We explore the correlation between disease specific estimates of economic losses and the burden of disease. This is based on data for Norway in 2013 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project and the Norwegian Directorate of Health. The diagnostic categories were equivalent to the ICD-10 chapters. Mental disorders topped the list of the costliest conditions in Norway in 2013, and musculoskeletal disorders caused the highest production loss, while neoplasms caused the greatest burden in terms of DALYs. There was a positive and significant association between economic losses and burden of disease. Neoplasms, circulatory diseases, mental and musculoskeletal disorders all contributed to large health care expenditures. Non-fatal conditions with a high prevalence in working populations, like musculoskeletal and mental disorders, caused the largest production loss, while fatal conditions such as neoplasms and circulatory disease did not, since they occur mostly at old age. The magnitude of the production loss varied with the estimation method. The estimations presented in this study did not include reductions in future consumption, by net-recipients, due to premature deaths. Non-fatal diseases are thus even more burdensome, relative to fatal diseases, than the production loss in this study suggests. Hence, ignoring production losses may underestimate the economic losses from chronic diseases in countries with an epidemiological profile similar to Norway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geo-spatial and log-linear analysis of pedestrian and bicyclist crashes involving school-aged children.

PubMed

Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Chundi, Sai Srinivas; Lee, Chris

2007-01-01

There is a growing concern with the safety of school-aged children. This study identifies the locations of pedestrian/bicyclist crashes involving school-aged children and examines the conditions when these crashes are more likely to occur. The 5-year records of crashes in Orange County, Florida where school-aged children were involved were used. The spatial distribution of these crashes was investigated using the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the likelihoods of crash occurrence under different conditions were estimated using log-linear models. A majority of school-aged children crashes occurred in the areas near schools. Although elementary school children were generally very involved, middle and high school children were more involved in crashes, particularly on high-speed multi-lane roadways. Driver's age, gender, and alcohol use, pedestrian's/bicyclist's age, number of lanes, median type, speed limits, and speed ratio were also found to be correlated with the frequency of crashes. The result confirms that school-aged children are exposed to high crash risk near schools. High crash involvement of middle and high school children reflects that middle and high schools tend to be located near multi-lane high-speed roads. The pedestrian's/bicyclist's demographic factors and geometric characteristics of the roads adjacent to schools associated with school children's crash involvement are of interest to school districts.

Quality of Health Care for Children in Australia, 2012-2013.

PubMed

Braithwaite, Jeffrey; Hibbert, Peter D; Jaffe, Adam; White, Les; Cowell, Christopher T; Harris, Mark F; Runciman, William B; Hallahan, Andrew R; Wheaton, Gavin; Williams, Helena M; Murphy, Elisabeth; Molloy, Charlotte J; Wiles, Louise K; Ramanathan, Shanthi; Arnolda, Gaston; Ting, Hsuen P; Hooper, Tamara D; Szabo, Natalie; Wakefield, John G; Hughes, Clifford F; Schmiede, Annette; Dalton, Chris; Dalton, Sarah; Holt, Joanna; Donaldson, Liam; Kelley, Ed; Lilford, Richard; Lachman, Peter; Muething, Stephen

2018-03-20

The quality of routine care for children is rarely assessed, and then usually in single settings or for single clinical conditions. To estimate the quality of health care for children in Australia in inpatient and ambulatory health care settings. Multistage stratified sample with medical record review to assess adherence with quality indicators extracted from clinical practice guidelines for 17 common, high-burden clinical conditions (noncommunicable [n = 5], mental health [n = 4], acute infection [n = 7], and injury [n = 1]), such as asthma, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, tonsillitis, and head injury. For these 17 conditions, 479 quality indicators were identified, with the number varying by condition, ranging from 9 for eczema to 54 for head injury. Four hundred medical records were targeted for sampling for each of 15 conditions while 267 records were targeted for anxiety and 133 for depression. Within each selected medical record, all visits for the 17 targeted conditions were identified, and separate quality assessments made for each. Care was evaluated for 6689 children 15 years of age and younger who had 15 240 visits to emergency departments, for inpatient admissions, or to pediatricians and general practitioners in selected urban and rural locations in 3 Australian states. These visits generated 160 202 quality indicator assessments. Quality indicators were identified through a systematic search of local and international guidelines. Individual indicators were extracted from guidelines and assessed using a 2-stage Delphi process. Quality of care for each clinical condition and overall. Of 6689 children with surveyed medical records, 53.6% were aged 0 to 4 years and 55.5% were male. Adherence to quality of care indicators was estimated at 59.8% (95% CI, 57.5%-62.0%; n = 160 202) across the 17 conditions, ranging from a high of 88.8% (95% CI, 83.0%-93.1%; n = 2638) for autism to a low of 43.5% (95% CI, 36.8%-50.4%; n = 2354) for tonsillitis. The mean adherence by condition category was estimated as 60.5% (95% CI, 57.2%-63.8%; n = 41 265) for noncommunicable conditions (range, 52.8%-75.8%); 82.4% (95% CI, 79.0%-85.5%; n = 14 622) for mental health conditions (range, 71.5%-88.8%); 56.3% (95% CI, 53.2%-59.4%; n = 94 037) for acute infections (range, 43.5%-69.8%); and 78.3% (95% CI, 75.1%-81.2%; n = 10 278) for injury. Among a sample of children receiving care in Australia in 2012-2013, the overall prevalence of adherence to quality of care indicators for important conditions was not high. For many of these conditions, the quality of care may be inadequate.

Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2014-01-01

The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Focazio, Michael J.; Plummer, Niel; Bohlke, John K.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Bachman, L. Joseph; Powars, David S.

1998-01-01

Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improve-ments in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR?s) for the study area. The HGMR?s are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC?s) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additi-onal data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water discharging from 30 of the 46 springs sampled were less than 20 years, including 5 that were 'modern' (0-4 years). Four samples had apparent ages of 22 to 34 years, and two others from thermal springs were 40 years or greater. The remaining ten samples were contaminated with local sources of CFC and could not be dated. Nitrate concentrations and nitrate delta 15 nitrogen (15N) values in water from many springs are similar to those in shallow ground water beneath fertilized fields, and some values are high enough to indicate a probable source from animal-waste components. The nitrogen data reported here highlight the significance of the springs sampled during this study as pathways for nutrient transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ground-water samples were collected from springs during an unusually high flow period and thus may not be representative of low base-flow conditions. Residence times estimated from plausible ranges of aquifer properties and results of previous age-dating analyses generally corroborate the apparent-age analysis made in the current study and suggests that some residence times could be much longer. The shortest residence times tend to be in the Blue Ridge and northern carbonate areas; however, the data are preliminary and not appropriate for statistical tests of significance or variance. Because the age distributions in the aquifer discharging to the springs are not known, and because the apparent ages of water from the springs are based on various com-binations of CFC criteria, the apparent ages and calculated residence times are compared for illustrative purposes but are considered preliminary until further work is accomplished.

Meteor Crater (Barringer Meteorite Crater), Arizona: Summary of Impact Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roddy, D. J.; Shoemaker, E. M.

1995-09-01

Meteor Crater in northern Arizona represents the most abundant type of impact feature in our Solar System, i.e., the simple bowl-shaped crater. Excellent exposures and preservation of this large crater and its ejecta blanket have made it a critical data set in both terrestrial and planetary cratering research. Recognition of the value of the crater was initiated in the early 1900's by Daniel Moreau Barringer, whose 27 years of exploration championed its impact origin [1]. In 1960, Shoemaker presented information that conclusively demonstrated that Meteor Crater was formed by hypervelocity impact [2]. This led the U.S. Geological Survey to use the crater extensively in the 1960-70's as a prime training site for the Apollo astronauts. Today, Meteor Crater continues to serve as an important research site for the international science community, as well as an educational site for over 300,000 visitors per year. Since the late 1950's, studies of this crater have presented an increasingly clearer view of this impact and its effects and have provided an improved view of impact cratering in general. To expand on this data set, we are preparing an upgraded summary on the Meteor Crater event following the format in [3], including information and interpretations on: 1) Inferred origin and age of the impacting body, 2) Inferred ablation and deceleration history in Earth's atmosphere, 3) Estimated speed, trajectory, angle of impact, and bow shock conditions, 4) Estimated coherence, density, size, and mass of impacting body, 5) Composition of impacting body (Canyon Diablo meteorite), 6) Estimated kinetic energy coupled to target rocks and atmosphere, 7) Terrain conditions at time of impact and age of impact, 8) Estimated impact dynamics, such as pressures in air, meteorite, and rocks, 9) Inferred and estimated material partitioning into vapor, melt, and fragments, 10) Crater and near-field ejecta parameters, 11) Rock unit distributions in ejecta blanket, 12) Estimated far-field rock and meteorite ejecta parameters, 13) Inferred and estimated cloud-rise and fall-out conditions, 14) Late-stage meteorite falls after impact, 15) Estimated damage effect ranges, 16) Erosion of crater and ejecta blanket, 17) New topographic and digital maps of crater and ejecta blanket, 18) Other. (Suggestions are welcome) This compilation will contain expanded discussions of new data as well as revised interpretations of existing information. For example in Item 1, we suggest the impacting body most likely formed during a collision in the main asteroid belt that fragmented the iron-nickel core of an asteroid some 0.5 billion years ago. The fragments remained in space until about 50,000+/-3000 yrs ago, when they were captured by the Earth's gravitational field. In Item 3, the trajectory of the impacting body is interpreted by EMS as traveling north-northwest at a relatively low impact angle. The presence of both shocked meteorite fragments and melt spherules indicate the meteorite had a velocity in the range of about 13 to 20 km/s, probably in the lower part of this range [4]. In Item 4, the coherent meteorite diameter is estimated to have been 45 to 50 m with a mass of 300,000 to 400,000 tons, i.e., large enough to experience less than 1% in both mass ablation and velocity deceleration. During this time, minor flake-off of the meteorite's exterior produced a limited number of smaller fragments that followed the main mass to the impact site but at greatly reduced velocities. In Item 6, we estimate the kinetic energy of impact to be in the range of 20 to 40 Mt depending on the energy coupling functions used and corrections for angle of oblique impact. At impact, terrain conditions were about as we see them today, a gently rolling plain with outcrops of Moenkopi and a meter or so of soil cover. In Item 18, EMS estimates production of a Meteor Crater-size event should occur on the continents about every 50,000 years; interestingly, this is the age of Meteor Crater. References: [1] Barringer D. M. (1906) Proc. Acad. Nat. Sci. Philadelphia, 57, 861-886. [2] Shoemaker E. M. (1960) Intl. Geol. Congress, Rept. 18, 418-434. [3] Roddy D. J. (1978) Proc. LPS 9th, 3891-3930. [4] Roddy D. J. et al. (1980) Proc. LPSC 11th, 2275-2307.

Parameter Heterogeneity In Breast Cancer Cost Regressions – Evidence From Five European Countries

PubMed Central

Banks, Helen; Campbell, Harry; Douglas, Anne; Fletcher, Eilidh; McCallum, Alison; Moger, Tron Anders; Peltola, Mikko; Sveréus, Sofia; Wild, Sarah; Williams, Linda J.; Forbes, John

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigate parameter heterogeneity in breast cancer 1‐year cumulative hospital costs across five European countries as part of the EuroHOPE project. The paper aims to explore whether conditional mean effects provide a suitable representation of the national variation in hospital costs. A cohort of patients with a primary diagnosis of invasive breast cancer (ICD‐9 codes 174 and ICD‐10 C50 codes) is derived using routinely collected individual breast cancer data from Finland, the metropolitan area of Turin (Italy), Norway, Scotland and Sweden. Conditional mean effects are estimated by ordinary least squares for each country, and quantile regressions are used to explore heterogeneity across the conditional quantile distribution. Point estimates based on conditional mean effects provide a good approximation of treatment response for some key demographic and diagnostic specific variables (e.g. age and ICD‐10 diagnosis) across the conditional quantile distribution. For many policy variables of interest, however, there is considerable evidence of parameter heterogeneity that is concealed if decisions are based solely on conditional mean results. The use of quantile regression methods reinforce the need to consider beyond an average effect given the greater recognition that breast cancer is a complex disease reflecting patient heterogeneity. © 2015 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26633866

Status and trends of prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Desorcie, Timothy J.; Kostich, Melissa Jean; Smith, Kelley R.; Adams, Jean V.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center has conducted lake-wide surveys of the fish community in Lake Michigan each fall since 1973 using standard 12-m bottom trawls towed along contour at depths of 9 to 110 m at each of seven index transects. The resulting data on relative abundance, size and age structure, and condition of individual fishes are used to estimate various population parameters that are in turn used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. All seven established index transects of the survey were completed in 2012. The survey provides relative abundance and biomass estimates between the 5-m and 114-m depth contours of the lake (herein, lake-wide) for prey fish populations, as well as burbot, yellow perch, and the introduced dreissenid mussels. Lake-wide biomass of alewives in 2012 was estimated at 9 kilotonnes (kt, 1 kt = 1000 metric tonnes), which continues the trend of unusually low alewife biomass since 2004 but represented a 20% increase from the 2011 estimate. The age distribution of alewives larger than 100 mm was dominated (i.e., 84%) by age-2. Record low biomass was observed for several species, including bloater (0.4 kt), rainbow smelt (0.1 kt), deepwater sculpin (1.5 kt), and ninespine stickleback (0.01 kt). Slimy sculpin lake-wide biomass was 0.73 kt in 2012, which was the third consecutive year revealing a decline. Estimated biomass of round goby increased by 79% to 3 kt. Burbot lake-wide biomass (0.5 kt in 2012) has remained below 3 kt since 2001. Numeric density of age-0 yellow perch (i.e., < 100 mm) was only 2 fish per ha, which is indicative of a relatively poor year-class. Lake-wide biomass estimates of dreissenid mussels have continued to increase from 2010, from 12 to 95 kt in 2012. Overall, the total lake-wide prey fish biomass estimate (sum of alewife, bloater, rainbow smelt, deepwater sculpin, slimy sculpin, round goby, and ninespine stickleback) in 2012 was 15 kt, which represented the lowest total biomass of the time series.

Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show that estimating survival of young individuals may be crucial to elucidating the demographic tactics of seabirds.

Consumption estimates of walleye stocked as fry to suppress fathead minnow populations in west-central Minnesota wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, M.C.; Willis, D.W.; Herwig, B.R.; Chipps, S.R.; Parsons, B.G.; Reed, J.R.; Hanson, M.A.

2008-01-01

Fisheries managers throughout the Prairie Pothole Region of Minnesota often use semi-permanent and permanent wetland basins to extensively culture walleye Sander vitreus fry. Waterfowl managers have expressed concern over this practice because of the potential influence that fish have on food resources used by waterfowl during development and migration. It is well known that native fathead minnows Pimephales promelas can have detrimental effects on macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, water clarity, epiphyton, and macrophytes in wetlands. Because walleye commonly become piscivorous as soon as mouth gape allows, walleye fry may suppress fathead minnow populations and improve wetland conditions for waterfowl. In this study, we quantify consumption estimates, specifically predation on fathead minnows, by age-0 and age-1 walleye reared in natural wetland basins. Six wetlands were stocked in mid-May 2001 and 2002 at a rate of 12,000 walleye fry ha-1. Age-0 walleye were sampled bi-weekly from mid-June through mid-September 2001. Age-0 and age-1 walleye were sampled monthly from mid-May through mid-September 2002. A generalised diet shift from zooplankton to fish to macroinvertebrates was observed in 2001, whereas diets of juvenile walleye contained primarily macroinvertebrates in 2002. Stocked walleye quickly reduced fathead minnow populations in 2001 and suppression was maintained throughout 2002. Although walleye consumed primarily macroinvertebrates once prey fish populations became suppressed, consumption estimates of invertebrates by walleye were substantially less than those documented for fathead minnow populations. Thus, stocking age-0 walleye was an effective biomanipulation tool that substantially reduced fathead minnow densities and influenced lower trophic levels in these aquatic communities. ?? 2007 Blackwell Munksgaard.

Aging in the Americas: Disability-free Life Expectancy Among Adults Aged 65 and Older in the United States, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Payne, Collin F

2018-01-11

To estimate and compare disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and current age patterns of disability onset and recovery from disability between the United States and countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Disability is measured using the activities of daily living scale. Data come from longitudinal surveys of older adult populations in Costa Rica, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the United States. Age patterns of transitions in and out of disability are modeled with a discrete-time logistic hazard model, and a microsimulation approach is used to estimate DFLE. Overall life expectancy for women aged 65 is 20.11 years in Costa Rica, 19.2 years in Mexico, 20.4 years in Puerto Rico, and 20.5 years in the United States. For men, these figures are 19.0 years in Costa Rica, 18.4 years in Mexico, 18.1 years in Puerto Rico, and 18.1 years in the United States. Proportion of remaining life spent free of disability for women at age 65 is comparable between Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the United States, with Costa Rica trailing slightly. Male estimates of DFLE are similar across the four populations. Though the older adult population of Latin America and the Caribbean lived many years exposed to poor epidemiological and public health conditions, their functional health in later life is comparable with the older adult population of the United States. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-30

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012... estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each... notice that the estimates of the voting age population for July 1, 2012, for each state and the District...

Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2010

PubMed Central

Schiller, Jeannine S.

2013-01-01

Preventing and ameliorating chronic conditions has long been a priority in the United States; however, the increasing recognition that people often have multiple chronic conditions (MCC) has added a layer of complexity with which to contend. The objective of this study was to present the prevalence of MCC and the most common MCC dyads/triads by selected demographic characteristics. We used respondent-reported data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to study the US adult civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 18 years or older (n = 27,157). We categorized adults as having 0 to 1, 2 to 3, or 4 or more of the following chronic conditions: hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, hepatitis, weak or failing kidneys, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or current asthma. We then generated descriptive estimates and tested for significant differences. Twenty-six percent of adults have MCC; the prevalence of MCC has increased from 21.8% in 2001 to 26.0% in 2010. The prevalence of MCC significantly increased with age, was significantly higher among women than men and among non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black adults than Hispanic adults. The most common dyad identified was arthritis and hypertension, and the combination of arthritis, hypertension, and diabetes was the most common triad. The findings of this study contribute information to the field of MCC research. The NHIS can be used to identify population subgroups most likely to have MCC and potentially lead to clinical guidelines for people with more common MCC combinations. PMID:23618545

Simulated fissioning of uranium and testing of the fission-track dating method

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, V.E.; Johnson, N.M.; Naeser, C.W.

1985-01-01

A computer program (FTD-SIM) faithfully simulates the fissioning of 238U with time and 235U with neutron dose. The simulation is based on first principles of physics where the fissioning of 238U with the flux of time is described by Ns = ??f 238Ut and the fissioning of 235U with the fluence of neutrons is described by Ni = ??235U??. The Poisson law is used to set the stochastic variation of fissioning within the uranium population. The life history of a given crystal can thus be traced under an infinite variety of age and irradiation conditions. A single dating attempt or up to 500 dating attempts on a given crystal population can be simulated by specifying the age of the crystal population, the size and variation in the areas to be counted, the amount and distribution of uranium, the neutron dose to be used and its variation, and the desired ratio of 238U to 235U. A variety of probability distributions can be applied to uranium and counting-area. The Price and Walker age equation is used to estimate age. The output of FTD-SIM includes the tabulated results of each individual dating attempt (sample) on demand and/or the summary statistics and histograms for multiple dating attempts (samples) including the sampling age. An analysis of the results from FTD-SIM shows that: (1) The external detector method is intrinsically more precise than the population method. (2) For the external detector method a correlation between spontaneous track count, Ns, and induced track count, Ni, results when the population of grains has a stochastic uranium content and/or when the counting areas between grains are stochastic. For the population method no correlation can exist. (3) In the external detector method the sampling distribution of age is independent of the number of grains counted. In the population method the sampling distribution of age is highly dependent on the number of grains counted. (4) Grains with zero-track counts, either in Ns or Ni, are in integral part of fissioning theory and under certain circumstances must be included in any estimate of age. (5) In estimating standard error of age the standard error of Ns and Ni and ?? must be accurately estimated and propagated through the age equation. Several statistical models are presently available to do so. ?? 1985.

Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

2010-01-01

We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in formulating harvest management strategies.

Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

2016-10-01

Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

Excess black mortality in the United States and in selected black and white high-poverty areas, 1980-2000.

PubMed

Geronimus, Arline T; Bound, John; Colen, Cynthia G

2011-04-01

Black working-aged residents of urban high-poverty areas suffered severe excess mortality in 1980 and 1990. Our goal in this study was to determine whether this trend persisted in 2000. We analyzed death certificate and census data to estimate age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality among 16- to 64-year-old Blacks and Whites nationwide and in selected urban and rural high-poverty areas. Urban men's mortality rate estimates peaked in 1990 and declined between 1990 and 2000 back to or below 1980 levels. Evidence of excess mortality declines among urban or rural women and among rural men was modest, with some increases. Between 1980 and 2000, there was little decline in chronic disease mortality among men and women in most areas, and in some instances there were increases. In 2000, despite improved economic conditions, working-age residents of the study areas still died disproportionately of early onset of chronic disease, suggesting an entrenched burden of disease and unmet health care needs. The lack of consistent improvement in death rates among working-age residents of high-poverty areas since 1980 necessitates reflection and concerted action given that sustainable progress has been elusive for this age group.

Reading Behind the Lines: The Factors Affecting the Text Reception Threshold in Hearing Aid Users.

PubMed

Zekveld, Adriana A; Pronk, Marieke; Danielsson, Henrik; Rönnberg, Jerker

2018-03-15

The visual Text Reception Threshold (TRT) test (Zekveld et al., 2007) has been designed to assess modality-general factors relevant for speech perception in noise. In the last decade, the test has been adopted in audiology labs worldwide. The 1st aim of this study was to examine which factors best predict interindividual differences in the TRT. Second, we aimed to assess the relationships between the TRT and the speech reception thresholds (SRTs) estimated in various conditions. First, we reviewed studies reporting relationships between the TRT and the auditory and/or cognitive factors and formulated specific hypotheses regarding the TRT predictors. These hypotheses were tested using a prediction model applied to a rich data set of 180 hearing aid users. In separate association models, we tested the relationships between the TRT and the various SRTs and subjective hearing difficulties, while taking into account potential confounding variables. The results of the prediction model indicate that the TRT is predicted by the ability to fill in missing words in incomplete sentences, by lexical access speed, and by working memory capacity. Furthermore, in line with previous studies, a moderate association between higher age, poorer pure-tone hearing acuity, and poorer TRTs was observed. Better TRTs were associated with better SRTs for the correct perception of 50% of Hagerman matrix sentences in a 4-talker babble, as well as with better subjective ratings of speech perception. Age and pure-tone hearing thresholds significantly confounded these associations. The associations of the TRT with SRTs estimated in other conditions and with subjective qualities of hearing were not statistically significant when adjusting for age and pure-tone average. We conclude that the abilities tapped into by the TRT test include processes relevant for speeded lexical decision making when completing partly masked sentences and that these processes require working memory capacity. Furthermore, the TRT is associated with the SRT of hearing aid users as estimated in a challenging condition that includes informational masking and with experienced difficulties with speech perception in daily-life conditions. The current results underline the value of using the TRT test in studies involving speech perception and aid in the interpretation of findings acquired using the test.

Photoanthropometric face iridial proportions for age estimation: An investigation using features selected via a joint mutual information criterion.

PubMed

Borges, Díbio L; Vidal, Flávio B; Flores, Marta R P; Melani, Rodolfo F H; Guimarães, Marco A; Machado, Carlos E P

2018-03-01

Age assessment from images is of high interest in the forensic community because of the necessity to establish formal protocols to identify child pornography, child missing and abuses where visual evidences are the mostly admissible. Recently, photoanthropometric methods have been found useful for age estimation correlating facial proportions in image databases with samples of some age groups. Notwithstanding the advances, newer facial features and further analysis are needed to improve accuracy and establish larger applicability. In this investigation, frontal images of 1000 individuals (500 females, 500 males), equally distributed in five age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, 22 years old) were used in a 10 fold cross-validated experiment for three age thresholds classifications (<10, <14, <18 years old). A set of novel 40 features, based on a relation between landmark distances and the iris diameter, is proposed and joint mutual information is used to select the most relevant and complementary features for the classification task. In a civil image identification database with diverse ancestry, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to verify accuracy, and the resultant AUCs achieved 0.971, 0.969, and 0.903 for the age classifications (<10, <14, <18 years old), respectively. These results add support to continuing research in age assessment from images using the metric approach. Still, larger samples are necessary to evaluate reliability in extensive conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Conditional Cash Transfer Program in the Philippines Reduces Severe Stunting.

PubMed

Kandpal, Eeshani; Alderman, Harold; Friedman, Jed; Filmer, Deon; Onishi, Junko; Avalos, Jorge

2016-09-01

Pantawid, a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in the Philippines, provided grants conditioned on health-related behaviors for children aged 0-5 y and schooling for those aged 10-14 y. We investigated whether Pantawid improved anthropometric measurements in children aged 6-36 mo. We estimated cross-sectional intention-to-treat effects using a 2011 cluster-randomized trial across 130 villages-65 treated and 65 control-with data collected after 31 mo of implementation. Anthropometry characteristics were measured for 241 children in treated areas and 244 children in control areas. Health service use for children aged 6-36 mo and dietary intake for those aged 6-60 mo also were measured. Outcome variables were height-for-age z scores (HAZs) and weight-for-age z scores (WAZs), stunting, severe stunting, underweight, and severely underweight. Impact also was assessed on perinatal care, institutional delivery, presence of skilled birth attendant, breastfeeding practices, immunization, growth monitoring and deworming, care-seeking, and children's intake of protein-rich foods. Pantawid was associated with a significant reduction in severe stunting [<-3 SD from WHO standards for healthy children; β = -10.2 percentage points (95% CI -18.8, -1.6 percentage points); P = 0.020] as well as a marginally significant increase in HAZs [β = 0.284 SDs (95% CI -0.033, 0.602 SDs); P = 0.08]. WAZs, stunting, underweight, and severely underweight status did not change. Concomitantly, several measures of health-seeking behavior increased significantly. To our knowledge, Pantawid is one of few CCT programs worldwide that significantly reduced severe stunting in children aged 6-36 mo; changes in key parenting practices, including children's intake of protein-rich foods and care-seeking behavior, were concurrent. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

[EFFECTIVENESS OF COMPREHENSIVE TREATMENT ON THE PREOPERATIVE CONDITIONS OF OBESE WOMEN CANDIDATES FOR BARIATRIC SURGERY].

PubMed

Delgado Floody, Pedro; Jerez Mayorga, Daniel; Caamaño Navarrete, Felipe; Concha Díaz, Manuel; Ovalle Elgueta, Héctor; Osorio Poblete, Aldo

2015-12-01

in Chile, a high prevalence of women presents morbid obesity, this condition generates serious medical complications and high costs for public health. to determine the effects of a total treatment program consisting of physical exercise, psychological therapy and nutrition education on the preoperative conditions of obese women candidates for bariatric surgery. nineteen women between the ages of 30 and 55 applicants to bariatric surgery, with morbid obesity (n=6) or obesity and comorbidities (n=13), underwent a program of comprehensive treatment of sixteen weeks duration (3 session/week). Before and 72 hours after the last intervention session was evaluated on fasting (≥12 hours): body weight, body mass index (BMI), percentage of body fat (% BF), contour waist (CW) and basal blood glucose. Cardiorespiratory fitness was also estimated. the average age was 40.32 years, post-sixteen weeks of comprehensive treatment study variables improved significantly (p. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Evaluating paper degradation progress. Cross-linking between chromatographic, spectroscopic and chemical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Łojewski, Tomasz; Zięba, Katarzyna; Knapik, Arkadiusz; Bagniuk, Jacek; Lubańska, Anna; Łojewska, Joanna

2010-09-01

The study presents an overview of the chromatographic (SEC), spectroscopic (FTIR, UV/VIS), viscometric (DP) and chemical methods (titration, pH) used for the evaluation of the degradation progress of various kinds of paper under various conditions. The methods were chosen to follow different routes of paper degradation. Model paper samples represented boundary paper types from pure cellulose cotton paper, through softwood to low quality acidic, sized groundwood paper The accelerated ageing conditions were adjusted to achieve maximum effect (climatic chamber RH 59%, 90oC) and also to mimic the environment inside books (closed vials). The results were settled on the literature data on the degradation mechanisms and compared in terms of the paper types and ageing conditions. The estimators of coupled de-polymerisation and oxidation have been proposed based on the correlation between SEC, UV/VIS and titrative coppper number determination. The overall oxidation index derived from FTIR results was shown to correlate with the summary -CHO and -COOH concentration determined by titrative methods.

Stability, precision, and near-24-hour period of the human circadian pacemaker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Czeisler, C. A.; Duffy, J. F.; Shanahan, T. L.; Brown, E. N.; Mitchell, J. F.; Rimmer, D. W.; Ronda, J. M.; Silva, E. J.; Allan, J. S.; Emens, J. S.;

Profile of intimate partner violence in Family Health Units.

PubMed

Rafael, Ricardo de Mattos Russo; Moura, Anna Tereza Miranda Soares de; Tavares, Jeane Marques Cunha; Ferreira, Renata Evelin Moreno; Camilo, Glauce Gomes da Silva; Neto, Mercedes

2017-01-01

To estimate the profile of intimate partner violence involving women in a scenario of Family Health Strategy in the municipality of Nova Iguaçu (Rio de Janeiro). A transversal study was conducted in four units with a sample of 640 women between the ages of 25 to 64. The phenomena of violence was determined using the tool Revised Conflict Tactics Scales, validated for Brazil. Statistical analysis took into consideration an estimation of prevalence in the calculation of the p values. The situations of violence and the sociodemographic profiles demonstrated a statistically significant relationship with the variables of educational level and housing conditions. Age, ethnicity and economic class demonstrated an association with certain types of violence, varying in type and severity. The study investigated the profile of these situations of violence and enabled reflection regarding the approaches adopted by the Family Health Strategy teams.

Psychophysical estimation of the effects of aging on direction-of-heading judgments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan

2011-11-01

We conducted psychophysical experiments on direction-of-heading judgments using old and young subjects. Subjects estimated heading directions on a translation perpendicular to the vertical plane (frontoparallel); we found that heading judgments were affected by age. Increasing the random dot density in the stimulus from 24 to 400 dots did not improve threshold significantly. Older subjects started performing worse at the highest dots condition of 400. The speed of the radial motion was important, as heading judgments with slower radial motion were difficult to judge than faster radial motion, as the focus of expansion was easier to locate owing to the larger displacement of dots. Gender differences indicated that older women had a higher threshold than older men. This was only significant for the faster simulated radial speed. A general trend of women having a higher threshold than men was noticed.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions.

PubMed

Cramer, Holger; Haller, Heidemarie; Dobos, Gustav; Lauche, Romy

2016-01-01

A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73%) in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p = 0.03). For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%). The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants' sociodemographic and health condition.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions

PubMed Central

Haller, Heidemarie; Dobos, Gustav; Lauche, Romy

2016-01-01

A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73%) in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p = 0.03). For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%). The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants' sociodemographic and health condition. PMID:27413387

Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

2015-11-01

In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

PubMed

Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

2015-01-01

Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

Examining intention in simulated actions: are children and young adults different?

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Caçola, Priscila

2014-10-01

Previous work with adults provides evidence that 'intention' used in processing simulated actions is similar to that used in planning and processing overt movements. The present study compared young adults and children on their ability to estimate distance reachability using a NOGO/GO paradigm in conditions of imagery only (IO) and imagery with actual execution (IE). Our initial thoughts were that whereas intention is associated with motivation and commitment to act, age-related differences could impact planning. Results indicated no difference in overall accuracy by condition within groups, and as expected adults were more accurate. These findings support an increasing body of evidence suggesting that the neurocognitive processes (in this case, intention) driving motor imagery and overt actions are similar, and as evidenced here, functioning by age 7. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age validation of canary rockfish (Sebastes pinniger) using two independent otolith techniques: lead-radium and bomb radiocarbon dating.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, A H; Kerr, L A; Cailliet, G M

2007-11-04

Canary rockfish (Sebastes pinniger) have long been an important part of recreational and commercial rockfish fishing from southeast Alaska to southern California, but localized stock abundances have declined considerably. Based on age estimates from otoliths and other structures, lifespan estimates vary from about 20 years to over 80 years. For the purpose of monitoring stocks, age composition is routinely estimated by counting growth zones in otoliths; however, age estimation procedures and lifespan estimates remain largely unvalidated. Typical age validation techniques have limited application for canary rockfish because they are deep dwelling and may be long lived. In this study, themore » unaged otolith of the pair from fish aged at the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada was used in one of two age validation techniques: (1) lead-radium dating and (2) bomb radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) dating. Age estimate accuracy and the validity of age estimation procedures were validated based on the results from each technique. Lead-radium dating proved successful in determining a minimum estimate of lifespan was 53 years and provided support for age estimation procedures up to about 50-60 years. These findings were further supported by {Delta}{sup 14}C data, which indicated a minimum estimate of lifespan was 44 {+-} 3 years. Both techniques validate, to differing degrees, age estimation procedures and provide support for inferring that canary rockfish can live more than 80 years.« less

Prenatal and postnatal maternal contributions to reproductive, maternal, and size-related traits of beef cattle.

PubMed

Gregory, K E; Maurer, R R

1991-03-01

Brown Swiss-Hereford (BS-H) reciprocal cross embryos were transferred to BS and H recipient cows and Red Poll-Angus (RP-A) reciprocal cross embryos were transferred to RP and A recipient cows to estimate the relative contributions of ovum cytoplasm and uterine influences to prenatal maternal effects. Calves resulting from embryo transfers (ET) were weaned early (3 to 5 d). Reciprocal cross mating also were made by natural service (NS) between BS and H and between RP and A breeds; part of the offspring were weaned at 3 to 5 d, and the remainder nursed their dams to an age of 150 to 180 d. This was done to estimate breed differences in prenatal and postnatal effects combined and to separate the effects of prenatal maternal influences from postnatal maternal influences of these breeds. Females produced in both ET and NS parts of the experiment were retained to produce three calf crops to an age of about 4.5 yr. The following traits were analyzed: percentage of conception rate; percentage of calf survival; percentage of calves produced per cow exposed; birth and weaning weights of calves produced; and periodic weights, heights, and condition scores of females to an age of 4.5 yr. Neither breed of donor (cytoplasmic influence) nor breed of recipient (uterine influence) had consistently important effects on the traits evaluated. In NS matings, differences between reciprocal crosses were small for most of the traits evaluated. Method of rearing (nursed vs weaned at 3 to 5 d) had no effect on reproductive and maternal traits for RP-A reciprocal cross females, but females that nursed generally were heavier, were taller, and had higher condition scores at most ages than early-weaned females. For the BS-H reciprocal cross, early-weaned females were favored over females reared by their dams in percentage of calves produced per cow exposed, but the method of rearing did not affect other reproductive or maternal traits. BS-H reciprocal cross females that nursed their dams were heavier at 550 d and were heavier and had higher condition scores at an age of 34 mo than early-weaned females.

Real-Time Diagnosis of Faults Using a Bank of Kalman Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L.

2006-01-01

A new robust method of automated real-time diagnosis of faults in an aircraft engine or a similar complex system involves the use of a bank of Kalman filters. In order to be highly reliable, a diagnostic system must be designed to account for the numerous failure conditions that an aircraft engine may encounter in operation. The method achieves this objective though the utilization of multiple Kalman filters, each of which is uniquely designed based on a specific failure hypothesis. A fault-detection-and-isolation (FDI) system, developed based on this method, is able to isolate faults in sensors and actuators while detecting component faults (abrupt degradation in engine component performance). By affording a capability for real-time identification of minor faults before they grow into major ones, the method promises to enhance safety and reduce operating costs. The robustness of this method is further enhanced by incorporating information regarding the aging condition of an engine. In general, real-time fault diagnostic methods use the nominal performance of a "healthy" new engine as a reference condition in the diagnostic process. Such an approach does not account for gradual changes in performance associated with aging of an otherwise healthy engine. By incorporating information on gradual, aging-related changes, the new method makes it possible to retain at least some of the sensitivity and accuracy needed to detect incipient faults while preventing false alarms that could result from erroneous interpretation of symptoms of aging as symptoms of failures. The figure schematically depicts an FDI system according to the new method. The FDI system is integrated with an engine, from which it accepts two sets of input signals: sensor readings and actuator commands. Two main parts of the FDI system are a bank of Kalman filters and a subsystem that implements FDI decision rules. Each Kalman filter is designed to detect a specific sensor or actuator fault. When a sensor or actuator fault occurs, large estimation errors are generated by all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis. By monitoring the residual output of each filter, the specific fault that has occurred can be detected and isolated on the basis of the decision rules. A set of parameters that indicate the performance of the engine components is estimated by the "correct" Kalman filter for use in detecting component faults. To reduce the loss of diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity in the face of aging, the FDI system accepts information from a steady-state-condition-monitoring system. This information is used to update the Kalman filters and a data bank of trim values representative of the current aging condition.

Biopsychosocial characteristics of community-dwelling older adults with limited ability to walk one-quarter of a mile.

PubMed

Hardy, Susan E; McGurl, David J; Studenski, Stephanie A; Degenholtz, Howard B

2010-03-01

To establish nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of self-reported difficulty and inability of older adults to walk one-quarter of a mile and to identify the characteristics independently associated with difficulty or inability to walk one-quarter of a mile. Cross-sectional analysis of data from the 2003 Cost and Use Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Community. Nine thousand five hundred sixty-three community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older, representing an estimated total population of 34.2 million older adults. Self-reported ability to walk one-quarter of a mile, sociodemographics, chronic conditions, body mass index, smoking, functional status. In 2003, an estimated 9.5 million older Medicare beneficiaries had difficulty walking one-quarter of a mile, and 5.9 million were unable to do so. Of the 20.2 million older adults with no difficulty in activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), an estimated 4.3 million (21%) had limited ability to walk one-quarter of a mile. Having difficulty or being unable to walk one-quarter of a mile was independently associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic ethnicity, lower educational level, Medicaid entitlement, most chronic medical conditions, current smoking, and being overweight or obese. Almost half of older adults and 20% of those reporting no ADL or IADL limitations report limited ability to walk one-quarter of a mile. For functionally independent older adults, reported ability to walk one-quarter of a mile can identify vulnerable older adults with greater medical problems and fewer resources and may be a valuable clinical marker in planning their care. Future work is needed to determine the association between ability to walk one-quarter of a mile walk and subsequent functional decline and healthcare use.

Actuarial status of the old-age and survivors insurance and disability insurance trust funds.

PubMed

Ballantyne, H C

1982-06-01

The 1982 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds indicates sever financial problems in both the short and the long range. The short-range financial status is significantly worse than was estimated last year, after enactment of the 1981 legislation, because of continuing unfavorable economic conditions. The estimated long-range deficit is the same as the deficit that was estimated last year before the 1981 legislation and is therefore somewhat worse than was estimated immediately after enactment of the legislation. Under present law, which authorizes temporary interfund borrowing amount the OASI, DI, and Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Funds, the OASI Trust Fund would become unable to pay benefits on time by July 1983. The assets of the DI Trust Fund, on the other hand, are expected to grow rapidly in both the short and long range. If the assets of both the OASI and DI Trust Funds were combined, however, the two funds would still become unable to pay benefits on time by the latter half of 1983, based on all four sets of economic and demographic assumptions in the 1982 report. Even if the temporary interfund borrowing authority in present law were extended, the combined assets of the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds would become insufficient to pay benefits on time by 1984, based on the two less favorable sets of assumptions in the 1982 report. Based on the other two, more favorable, sets of assumptions, the three combined funds could pay benefits on time through the 1980's but there would be little or no margin of safety to permit timely payment of benefits if economic conditions are even slightly less favorable.

Association between Late-Life Social Activity and Motor Decline in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Buchman, Aron S.; Boyle, Patricia A.; Wilson, Robert S.; Fleischman, Debra A.; Leurgans, Sue; Bennett, David A.

2009-01-01

Background Loss of motor function is a common consequence of aging, but little is known about factors that predict idiopathic motor decline. Methods We studied 906 persons without dementia, history of stroke or Parkinson's disease participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project. At baseline, they rated their frequency of participation in common social activities. Outcome was annual change in global motor function, based on nine measures of muscle strength and nine motor performances. Results Mean social activity score at baseline was 2.6 (SD=0.58), with higher scores indicating more frequent participation in social activities. In a generalized estimating equation model, controlling for age, sex and education, motor function declined by about 0.05 unit/year [Estimate, 0.016; 95%CI (-0.057, -0.041); p=0.017]. Each 1-point decrease in social activity was associated with about a 33% more rapid rate of decline in motor function [Estimate, 0.016; 95%CI (0.003, 0.029); p=0.017)]. This amount of annual motor decline was associated with a more than 40% increased risk of death (Hazard Ratio: 1.44; 95%CI: 1.30, 1.60) and 65% increased risk of incident Katz disability (Hazard Ratio: 1.65; 95%CI: 1.48, 1.83). The association of social activity with change in motor function did not vary along demographic lines and was unchanged after controlling for potential confounders including late-life physical and cognitive activity, disability, global cognition, depressive symptoms, body composition and chronic medical conditions [Estimate, 0.025; 95%CI (0.005, 0.045); p=0.010]. Conclusion Less frequent participation in social activities is associated with a more rapid rate of motor decline in old age. PMID:19546415

Age-specific fluoride exposure in drinking water and osteosarcoma (United States).

PubMed

Bassin, Elise B; Wypij, David; Davis, Roger B; Mittleman, Murray A

2006-05-01

We explored age-specific and gender-specific effects of fluoride level in drinking water and the incidence of osteosarcoma. We used data from a matched case-control study conducted through 11 hospitals in the United States that included a complete residential history for each patient and type of drinking water (public, private well, bottled) used at each address. Our analysis was limited to cases less than 20 years old. We standardized fluoride exposure estimates based on CDC-recommended target levels that take climate into account. We categorized exposure into three groups (<30%, 30-99%, >99% of target) and used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios. Analysis is based on 103 cases under the age of 20 and 215 matched controls. For males, the unadjusted odds ratios for higher exposures were greater than 1.0 at each exposure age, reaching a peak of 4.07 (95% CI 1.43, 11.56) at age 7 years for the highest exposure. Adjusting for potential confounders produced similar results with an adjusted odds ratio for males of 5.46 (95% CI 1.50, 19.90) at age 7 years. This association was not apparent among females. Our exploratory analysis found an association between fluoride exposure in drinking water during childhood and the incidence of osteosarcoma among males but not consistently among females. Further research is required to confirm or refute this observation.

Thermochronological modeling of the age of Vologda crystalline basement of the Russian platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerasimov, V. Yu.; Petrov, D. B.; Lebedev, V. A.

2010-05-01

The results of the complex petrological and isotope-geochronological study of the crystalline rock from the deep drilling hall of the south of Vologda segment are presented in this work. The crystalline basement of the platform in Vologda region lie in a depth 2.5 km and represented by high alumina mica schist. The thick sedimentary cover consists of vendian and phanerozoic sediments. Upper level covered by quaternary glacial deposits up to 50 m. A core sample from the borehole of Fedotovo village was obtained from the depth 2600 m. It is fine-medium grained metamorphic mica schist with sillimanite. The mineral assemblage represented by association: Pl-Bt-Ms-Sil-Qtz-Mag +Zrn +Mnz. The metamorphic schist of the crystalline basement contains several radio isotope sensors. There are two rock forming potassium reach mica, - biotite (Bt) and muscovite (Ms) and accessories monazite (Mnz), - the phosphate of REE enriched by Th and U. It was a reason why traditional K-Ar isotope dating method in the combination with electron microprobe U-Th-Pb dating method CHIME [Suzuki et al. 1991] was used for Vologda metapelite rocks dating. In addition to geochronology, the detailed petrological investigation using electron microprobe allowed also to determine thermodynamic parameters of metamorphic system with a help of the mineral thermobarometry and finally estimate the age of the metamorphic thermal event using experimental diffusion data of Ar and Pb in minerals [Gerasimov et al. 2004]. The temperature of the regional metamorphism was estimated using Bt+Mag+Qtz and Bt+Ms geothermometers [Glassley 1983, Hoisch 1989]. Taking into account the field of the sillimanite P-T stability it is possible to conclude that the peak of metamorphism was reached at temperature about ТоС=550+/-30° C and pressure Р=4+/-1 kbar. Isotope thermochronology of the sample demonstrate nearly Svecofenian age 1.7-1.8 Ga of Vologda crystalline basement. K-Ar isotope dating of black and white mica demonstrates regular progression of ages in a concordance with closure temperature of each mineral. The apparent Bt age is about 1670 Ma and Ms age is 1710 Ma. The estimation of closure temperature (Tc) for each of the minerals using Dodsn's theory [Dodson 1973] and DCT computer program with concordance procedure of cooling rate simulation for the two coexisting minerals demonstrate value 340° C and и 460° C for Bt and Ms respectively. The rate of cooling in this temperature range is about 3° C/Ma and time span between closure temperatures of the two micas is about 40 Ma. The value of the cooling rate is a very typical for regional metamorphism conditions. The linear extrapolation of the simulated time-temperature trend to the thermal peak of the regional metamorphism (estimated by mineral equilibriums at 550° C) demonstrates that cooling of the metamorphic system from the thermal peak to 460° C(closure temperature of Ms) takes about 30-40 Ma. It is a value of systematic thermochronological correction to the muscovite apparent K-Ar age which has to be added to estimate the age of regional metamorphism, after that we finally receive the age 1750+/-40 Ma. U-Th-Pb system of monazite grains was tested by electron microprobe JEOL 8200 in IGEM RAS using CHIME method. The analysis of 8 grains demonstrated averaged value of age 1790+/-55 Ma. It is in a very good agreement with K-Ar isotope dating results. Moreover, the estimation of monazite closure temperature using experimental data of Pb diffusion [Smith & Giletti 1997] shows the value Tc=540-560° C which almost exactly corresponds to the peak temperature of regional metamorphism. It is also an explanation of the very close results of dating in different isotope systems (conservative U-Th-Pb system of monazite and flexible K-Ar system) in the condition of slow cooling and demonstrates the thermochronological modeling effectiveness.

Muscular Oxygen Uptake Kinetics in Aged Adults.

PubMed

Koschate, J; Drescher, U; Baum, K; Eichberg, S; Schiffer, T; Latsch, J; Brixius, K; Hoffmann, U

2016-06-01

Pulmonary oxygen uptake (V˙O2) kinetics and heart rate kinetics are influenced by age and fitness. Muscular V˙O2 kinetics can be estimated from heart rate and pulmonary V˙O2. In this study the applicability of a test using pseudo-random binary sequences in combination with a model to estimate muscular V˙O2 kinetics was tested. Muscular V˙O2 kinetics were expected to be faster than pulmonary V˙O2 kinetics, slowed in aged subjects and correlated with maximum V˙O2 and heart rate kinetics. 27 elderly subjects (73±3 years; 81.1±8.2 kg; 175±4.7 cm) participated. Cardiorespiratory kinetics were assessed using the maximum of cross-correlation functions, higher maxima implying faster kinetics. Muscular V˙O2 kinetics were faster than pulmonary V˙O2 kinetics (0.31±0.1 vs. 0.29±0.1 s; p=0.004). Heart rate kinetics were not correlated with muscular or pulmonary V˙O2 kinetics or maximum V˙O2. Muscular V˙O2 kinetics correlated with maximum V˙O2 (r=0.35; p=0.033). This suggests, that muscular V˙O2 kinetics are faster than estimates from pulmonary V˙O2 and related to maximum V˙O2 in aged subjects. In the future this experimental approach may help to characterize alterations in muscular V˙O2 under various conditions independent of motivation and maximal effort. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Lyapunov exponent for aging process in induction motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayram, Duygu; Ünnü, Sezen Yıdırım; Şeker, Serhat

2012-09-01

Nonlinear systems like electrical circuits and systems, mechanics, optics and even incidents in nature may pass through various bifurcations and steady states like equilibrium point, periodic, quasi-periodic, chaotic states. Although chaotic phenomena are widely observed in physical systems, it can not be predicted because of the nature of the system. On the other hand, it is known that, chaos is strictly dependent on initial conditions of the system [1-3]. There are several methods in order to define the chaos. Phase portraits, Poincaré maps, Lyapunov Exponents are the most common techniques. Lyapunov Exponents are the theoretical indicator of the chaos, named after the Russian mathematician Aleksandr Lyapunov (1857-1918). Lyapunov Exponents stand for the average exponential divergence or convergence of nearby system states, meaning estimating the quantitive measure of the chaotic attractor. Negative numbers of the exponents stand for a stable system whereas zero stands for quasi-periodic systems. On the other hand, at least if one of the exponents is positive, this situation is an indicator of the chaos. For estimating the exponents, the system should be modeled by differential equation but even in that case mathematical calculation of Lyapunov Exponents are not very practical and evaluation of these values requires a long signal duration [4-7]. For experimental data sets, it is not always possible to acquire the differential equations. There are several different methods in literature for determining the Lyapunov Exponents of the system [4, 5]. Induction motors are the most important tools for many industrial processes because they are cheap, robust, efficient and reliable. In order to have healthy processes in industrial applications, the conditions of the machines should be monitored and the different working conditions should be addressed correctly. To the best of our knowledge, researches related to Lyapunov exponents and electrical motors are mostly focused on the controlling the mechanical parameters of the electrical machines. Brushless DC motor (BLDCM) and the other general purpose permanent magnet (PM) motors are the most widely examined motors [1, 8, 9]. But the researches, about Lyapunov Exponent, subjected to the induction motors are mostly focused on the control theory of the motors. Flux estimation of rotor, external load disturbances and speed tracking and vector control position system are the main research areas for induction motors [10, 11, 12-14]. For all the data sets which can be collected from an induction motor, vibration data have the key role for understanding the mechanical behaviours like aging, bearing damage and stator insulation damage [15-18]. In this paper aging of an induction motor is investigated by using the vibration signals. The signals consist of new and aged motor data. These data are examined by their 2 dimensional phase portraits and the geometric interpretation is applied for detecting the Lyapunov Exponents. These values are compared in order to define the character and state estimation of the aging processes.

On the timing of high-pressure metamorphism in Alpine Corsica: the first Lu-Hf garnet and lawsonite ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitale Brovarone, A.; Herwartz, D.; Castelli, D.; Malavieille, J.

2012-04-01

Timing of HP metamorphism in Alpine Corsica is highly debated. Controversial biostratigraphic and radiometric constraints results in a poor understanding of the evolution of Alpine Corsica and its meaning in the Western Mediterranean dynamics. Age estimates provided by means of several techniques (e.g. Ar-Ar, Sa-Nd, U-Pb) vary form Late Cretaceous to Late Eocene. Some authors favor a Late Cretaceous peak metamorphism under HP conditions followed by Late Eocene and Early Oligocene blueschist and greenschist retrogression, respectively. Others favor a Late Eocene peak metamorphism and consider the older estimates as affected by analytical inaccuracy. In order to unravel this debate, we provide new Lu-Hf constraints on garnet and lawsonite from the lawsonite-eclogite and lawsonite-blueschist units of Alpine Corsica, which represent a part of the so-called Schistes Lustrés complex. The two investigated units are interpreted to represent remnants of the former Corsican ocean-continent transition zone [2]. As Lu concentrates in the cores of the selected minerals during the early stages of growth and blocking temperatures are high, this method provides robust insight on the timing of prograde/peak metamorphism [1]. Garnet and lawsonite separated form three lawsonite-eclogite samples yield systematic Late Eocene ages at ~ 34 Ma, while lawsonite from the lawsonite-blueschist unit yields a slightly older age at ~ 37 Ma. These data are in agreement with U-Pb data on zircon from the lawsonite-eclogite unit (~ 34 Ma) [3], but are in contrast with a recent U-Pb estimate on the Corsican continental margin unit metamorphosed under blueschist condition, yielding an age of ~ 55 Ma [4]. These discrepancies indicate a complex paleogeographic setting and a diachronous metamorphic evolution along the Corsican ocean-continent transition zone. The Late Eocene HP metamorphism in the Schistes Lustrés of Alpine Corsica also provides important constraints in the evolution of the Alps-Apennine system and the surrounding Western Mediterranean area. [1] Skora, S., Baumgartner, L.P., Mahlen, N.J., Lapen, T.J., Johnson, C.M., Bussy, F. 2008. Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet. Swiss J. Geosci. DOI: 10.1007/s00015-008-1268-y. [2] Vitale Brovarone, A., Beltrando, M., Malavieille, J., Giuntoli, F, Tondella, E, Groppo, C., Beyssac, O. and Compagnoni, R., 2011a. Inherited Ocean-Continent Transition zones in deeply subducted terranes: Insights from Alpine Corsica, Lithos, doi: 10.1016/j.lithos.2011.02.013. [3] Martin., L., Rubatto, D., Vitale Brovarone, A., Hermann, J. 2011. Late Eocene lawsonite-eclogite facies metasomatism of a granulite sliver associated to ophiolites in Alpine Corsica. Lithos, doi:10.1016/j.lithos.2011.03.015 [4] Maggi M, Rossetti F, Theye T, Andersen T, Corfu F, Faccenna C. Sodic Pyroxene Bearing Phyllonites From the East Tenda Shear Zone: Constraining P-T Conditions and Timing of the Ligurian-Piemontese Ocean Overthrusting Onto the Variscan Corsica. Abstract Corsealp 2011. Saint Florent, Corsica, France.

Aspartic acid racemisation in purified elastin from arteries as basis for age estimation.

PubMed

Dobberstein, R C; Tung, S-M; Ritz-Timme, S

2010-07-01

Aspartic acid racemisation (AAR) results in an age-dependent accumulation of D: -aspartic acid in durable human proteins and can be used as a basis for age estimation. Routinely, age estimation based on AAR is performed by analysis of dentine. However, in forensic practise, teeth are not always available. Non-dental tissues for age estimation may be suitable for age estimation based on AAR if they contain durable proteins that can be purified and analysed. Elastin is such a durable protein. To clarify if purified elastin from arteries is a suitable sample for biochemical age estimation, AAR was determined in purified elastin from arteries from individuals of known age (n = 68 individuals, including n = 15 putrefied corpses), considering the influence of different stages of atherosclerosis and putrefaction on the AAR values. AAR was found to increase with age. The relationship between AAR and age was good enough to serve as basis for age estimation, but worse than known from dentinal proteins. Intravital and post-mortem degradation of elastin may have a moderate effect on the AAR values. Age estimation based on AAR in purified elastin from arteries may be a valuable additional tool in the identification of unidentified cadavers, especially in cases where other methods cannot be applied (e.g., no available teeth and body parts).

Last menstrual period provides the best estimate of gestation length for women in rural Guatemala.

PubMed

Neufeld, Lynnette M; Haas, Jere D; Grajéda, Ruben; Martorell, Reynaldo

2006-07-01

The accurate estimation of gestational age in field studies in rural areas of developing countries continues to present difficulties for researchers. Our objective was to determine the best method for gestational age estimation in rural Guatemala. Women of childbearing age from four communities in rural Guatemala were invited to participate in a longitudinal study. Gestational age at birth was determined by an early second trimester measure of biparietal diameter, last menstrual period (LMP), the Capurro neonatal examination and symphysis-fundus height (SFH) for 171 women-infant pairs. Regression modelling was used to determine which method provided the best estimate of gestational age using ultrasound as the reference. Gestational age estimated by LMP was within +/-14 days of the ultrasound estimate for 94% of the sample. LMP-estimated gestational age explained 46% of the variance in gestational age estimated by ultrasound whereas the neonatal examination explained only 20%. The results of this study suggest that, when trained field personnel assist women to recall their date of LMP, this date provides the best estimate of gestational age. SFH measured during the second trimester may provide a reasonable alternative when LMP is unavailable.

Using luminescence dating of coarse matrix material to estimate the slip rate of the Astaneh fault, Iran

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizza, M.; Mahan, S.; Ritz, J.-F.; Nazari, H.; Hollingsworth, J.; Salamati, R.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present optically and infrared stimulated luminescence (OSL and IRSL) ages for four samples from alluvial fan surfaces in the Astaneh Valley. This valley is located in the north-east part of the Alborz range in Iran. Our morphologic interpretations recognize at least three generations of fans in the study area, all of which have been displaced along the left-lateral strike-slip Astaneh fault. Because of the dry, loose, and sometimes complex juxtaposition of the target sediments, we collected the samples in total darkness beneath dark plastic layers placed atop the pit openings. Luminescence ages of the fans are ???55 ka, ???32 ka and ???16 ka. These ages are concurrent with periods of loess deposition and wet climatic conditions previously recorded in the Arabia-Iranian region. They allow estimation of a horizontal slip rate of ???2 mm/yr along the Astaneh fault, which is consistent with additional slip rates determined for the Holocene period along faults further west of the Astaneh fault. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Application of a Bank of Kalman Filters for Aircraft Engine Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobayashi, Takahisa; Simon, Donald L.

2003-01-01

In this paper, a bank of Kalman filters is applied to aircraft gas turbine engine sensor and actuator fault detection and isolation (FDI) in conjunction with the detection of component faults. This approach uses multiple Kalman filters, each of which is designed for detecting a specific sensor or actuator fault. In the event that a fault does occur, all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis will produce large estimation errors, thereby isolating the specific fault. In the meantime, a set of parameters that indicate engine component performance is estimated for the detection of abrupt degradation. The proposed FDI approach is applied to a nonlinear engine simulation at nominal and aged conditions, and the evaluation results for various engine faults at cruise operating conditions are given. The ability of the proposed approach to reliably detect and isolate sensor and actuator faults is demonstrated.

The noise factor in railway locomotives.

PubMed

Rotter, T

1982-09-01

This article concerns the problem of acoustic work conditions on railway locomotives. The objective results of sonometric surveys in locomotive cabins are compared with subject data received from locomotive crews obtained by means of a specific questionnaire 'The Subjective Estimation of Noise'. The analysis touched 9 type of locomotives; steam, diesel and electric engines. We asked drivers of different age groups and with varying lengths of professional service for their opinions The aim of the investigation was to determine the following points: 1. to analyse the drivers' subjective estimation of the noise in the locomotive cabins; 2. to define length of time for which the driver remains under the influence of the noise after finishing work; 3. to investigate the question of perception and understanding of sounds and vocal signals used in the locomotive. These problems are a small part of the general plan to improve work conditions on the Polish National Railways.

Effects of physiological aging on mismatch negativity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cheng, Chia-Hsiung; Hsu, Wan-Yu; Lin, Yung-Yang

2013-11-01

Mismatch negativity (MMN) is a promising window on how the functional integrity of auditory sensory memory and change discrimination is modulated by age and relevant clinical conditions. However, the effects of aging on MMN have remained somewhat elusive, particularly at short interstimulus intervals (ISIs). We performed a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed MMN studies that had targeted both young and elderly adults to estimate the mean effect size. Nine studies, consisting of 29 individual investigations, were included and the final total study population consisted of 182 young and 165 elderly subjects. The effects of different deviant types and duration of ISIs on the effect size were assessed. The overall mean effect size was 0.63 (95% CI at 0.43-0.82). The effect sizes for long ISI (>2s, effect size 0.68, 95% CI at 0.31-1.06) and short ISI (<2s, effect size 0.61, 95% CI at 0.39-0.84) were both considered moderate. A further analysis showed a prominent aging-related decrease in MMN responses to duration and frequency changes at short ISIs. It was also interesting to note that the effect size was about 25% larger for duration deviant condition compared to the frequency deviant condition. In conclusion, a reduced MMN response to duration and frequency deviants is a robust feature among the aged adults, which suggests that there has been a decline in the functional integrity of central auditory processing in this population. © 2013.

Health status and years of sexually active life among older men and women in South Africa.

PubMed

Chirinda, Witness; Zungu, Nompumelelo

2016-11-01

Little is known about sexual activity in old age, particularly in Africa. The objective of this paper is to estimate years of sexually active life for older men and women, and examine the association between sexual activity and self-rated health status. Data were extracted from two large cross sectional HIV household surveys conducted in 2005 and 2012 in South Africa. The Sullivan method was used to estimate sexually active life expectancy, whilst logistic regression was used to assess associations with sexual activity. Sexually active life expectancy was higher among men across all the age groups in both surveys. At age 50, the sexually active life expectancy for men was double that for women - 2005 (12.6 vs. 5.9 years), 2012 (12.7 vs. 7.2 years). Self-rated health was significantly associated with sexual activity in men (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 1.56; 95% CI 1.11-2.19; p<0.001). Among older women, moderate exercise was associated with being sexual active, while HIV infection was significantly associated with reduced sexual activity. The presence of chronic conditions was also significantly associated with reduced sexual activity among men. The results confirm that older adults are sexually active, and that factors associated with sexual activity are different for men and women. HIV among women and chronic conditions among men are areas of intervention to improve sexual activity in older people. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-working nurses in Japan: estimated size and its age-cohort characteristics.

PubMed

Nakata, Yoshifumi; Miyazaki, Satoru

2008-12-01

This paper aims to forecast the total number of non-working nursing staff in Japan both overall and in terms of separate age groups for assistant nurses and fully qualified nurses. This also examines policy implications of those forecasts. Although the existence of around 550,000 of non-working nursing staff has been announced, the actual number of non-working nurses is not so clear that we might make errors in making policy to meet nurse workforce demand and supply in Japan. Estimations by integrating various data on the quantitative characteristics of non-working nursing staff were carried out. Considering the length and the type of education or training in referred four nursing positions; registered nurses, assistant nurses, public health nurses and midwives, we first estimated the number of students who completed a full course. And then multiplying by the ratio for gender and age classifications at the time of entry into courses, the number of those who obtained licenses was estimated. The number of non-working nurses was estimated at 100,000 higher than those in 2005 by government. Looking at age group, it is also possible to see a strong reflection of an employment pattern that follows the life cycle of female workers. Further analysis of life cycle effects and cohort effects proved the effect of life cycles even when subtracting the differences between the working behaviours of different generations. Our findings strongly suggest the need to provide an urgent policy that workplace conditions can be created in which a balance between work and family is achievable. Moreover, to empower clinical activity, we also believe there is an urgent need to reexamine the overall career vision for assistant nurses including in terms of compensation. Relevance to clinical practice. Our findings strongly suggests that consideration for work-life balance of nursing staff; particularly, female staff is all the more important to provide a stable quality care.

Estimating biophysical properties of coffee (Coffea canephora) plants with above-canopy field measurements, using CropSpec®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, Bayu T. Widjaja; Soni, Peeyush; Morimoto, Eiji; Pujiyanto, Pujiyanto

2018-04-01

Remote sensing technologies have been applied to many crops, but tree crops like Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) under shade conditions require additional attention while making above-canopy measurements. The objective of this study was to determine how well chlorophyll and nitrogen status of Robusta coffee plants can be estimated with the laser-based (CropSpec®) active sensor. This study also identified appropriate vegetation indices for estimating Nitrogen content by above-canopy measurement, using near-infra red and red-edge bands. Varying light intensity and different background of the plants were considered in developing the indices. Field experiments were conducted involving different non-destructive tools (CropSpec® and SPAD-502 chlorophyll meter). Subsequently, Kjeldahl laboratory analyses were performed to determine the actual Nitrogen content of the plants with different ages and field conditions used in the non-destructive previous stage. Measurements were undertaken for assessing the biophysical properties of tree plant. The usefulness of near-infrared and red-edge bands from these sensors in measuring critical nitrogen levels of coffee plants by above-canopy measurement are investigated in this study.

Comparison of age estimation between 15-25 years using a modified form of Demirjian’s ten stage method and two teeth regression formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiroh; Priaminiarti, M.; Syahraini, S. I.

2017-08-01

Age estimation of individuals, both dead and living, is important for victim identification and legal certainty. The Demirjian method uses the third molar for age estimation of individuals above 15 years old. The aim is to compare age estimation between 15-25 years using two Demirjian methods. Development stage of third molars in panoramic radiographs of 50 male and female samples were assessed by two observers using Demirjian’s ten stages and two teeth regression formula. Reliability was calculated using Cohen’s kappa coefficient and the significance of the observations was obtained from Wilcoxon tests. Deviations of age estimation were calculated using various methods. The deviation of age estimation with the two teeth regression formula was ±1.090 years; with ten stages, it was ±1.191 years. The deviation of age estimation using the two teeth regression formula was less than with the ten stages method. The age estimations using the two teeth regression formula or the ten stages method are significantly different until the age of 25, but they can be applied up to the age of 22.

Survival of European mouflon (Artiodactyla: Bovidae) in Hawai'i based on tooth cementum lines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, S.C.; Stephens, R.M.; Thompson, T.L.; Danner, R.M.; Kawakami, B.

2011-01-01

Reliable techniques for estimating age of ungulates are necessary to determine population parameters such as age structure and survival. Techniques that rely on dentition, horn, and facial patterns have limited utility for European mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), but tooth cementum lines may offer a useful alternative. Cementum lines may not be reliable outside temperate regions, however, because lack of seasonality in diet may affect annulus formation. We evaluated the utility of tooth cementum lines for estimating age of mouflon in Hawai'i in comparison to dentition. Cementum lines were present in mouflon from Mauna Loa, island of Hawai'i, but were less distinct than in North American sheep. The two age-estimation methods provided similar estimates for individuals aged ???3 yr by dentition (the maximum age estimable by dentition), with exact matches in 51% (18/35) of individuals, and an average difference of 0.8 yr (range 04). Estimates of age from cementum lines were higher than those from dentition in 40% (14/35) and lower in 9% (3/35) of individuals. Discrepancies in age estimates between techniques and between paired tooth samples estimated by cementum lines were related to certainty categories assigned by the clarity of cementum lines, reinforcing the importance of collecting a sufficient number of samples to compensate for samples of lower quality, which in our experience, comprised approximately 22% of teeth. Cementum lines appear to provide relatively accurate age estimates for mouflon in Hawai'i, allow estimating age beyond 3 yr, and they offer more precise estimates than tooth eruption patterns. After constructing an age distribution, we estimated annual survival with a log-linear model to be 0.596 (95% CI 0.5540.642) for this heavily controlled population. ?? 2011 by University of Hawai'i Press.

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

2001-05-01

Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year overmore » the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i.e., early spring transition occurred, p < 0.05), (2) improved survival during strong downwelling conditions (Bakun units < -250). Survival decreased during weak downwelling conditions (Bakun units between -180 and -100). Strong to moderately strong correlations between January upwelling and April SST (r = 0.5), June SST (r = 0.6), and the North Pacific Index (NPI) of Aleutian Low strength (r > 0.7) suggest January is a period when important effects originate and play out over ensuing months. Significant inverse trend with survival (p < 0.05) was found for Bakun indices in December, indicating strong downwelling improved survival. Higher-than-average adult return rates were observed for cohorts from brood-years 1982-1983, strong El Nino years. Individual hatcheries were found to have unique age-class strength and age-at-return characteristics.« less

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.

2008-01-01

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

Age estimation of burbot using pectoral fin rays, brachiostegal rays, and otoliths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2014-01-01

Throughout much of its native distribution, burbot (Lota lota) is a species of conservation concern. Understanding dynamic rate functions is critical for the effective management of sensitive burbot populations, which necessitates accurate and precise age estimates. Managing sensitive burbot populations requires an accurate and precise non-lethal alternative. In an effort to identify a non-lethal ageing structure, we compared the precision of age estimates obtained from otoliths, pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays from 208 burbot collected from the Green River drainage, Wyoming. Additionally, we compared the accuracy of age estimates from pectoral fin rays, dorsal fin rays and branchiostegal rays to those of otoliths. Dorsal fin rays were immediately deemed a poor ageing structure and removed from further analysis. Age-bias plots of consensus ages derived from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were appreciably different from those obtained from otoliths. Exact agreement between readers and reader confidence was highest for otoliths and lowest for branchiostegal rays. Age-bias plots indicated that age estimates obtained from branchiostegal rays and pectoral fin rays were substantially different from age estimates obtained from otoliths. Our results indicate that otoliths provide the most precise age estimates for burbot.

Estimation model of life insurance claims risk for cancer patients by using Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Suyudi, M.; Islamiyati, F.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

This paper discussed the estimation model of the risk of life insurance claims for cancer patients using Bayesian method. To estimate the risk of the claim, the insurance participant data is grouped into two: the number of policies issued and the number of claims incurred. Model estimation is done using a Bayesian approach method. Further, the estimator model was used to estimate the risk value of life insurance claims each age group for each sex. The estimation results indicate that a large risk premium for insured males aged less than 30 years is 0.85; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:58; for ages 41 to 50 years is 1.71; for ages 51 to 60 years is 2.96; and for those aged over 60 years is 7.82. Meanwhile, for insured women aged less than 30 years was 0:56; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:21; for ages 41 to 50 years is 0.65; for ages 51 to 60 years is 3:12; and for those aged over 60 years is 9.99. This study is useful in determining the risk premium in homogeneous groups based on gender and age.

Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

2000-01-01

We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

Relationship between patient age and duration of physician visit in ambulatory setting: does one size fit all?

PubMed

Lo, Agnes; Ryder, Kathryn; Shorr, Ronald I

2005-07-01

To determine whether patient age, the presence of comorbid illness, and the number of prescribed medications influence the duration of a physician visit in an ambulatory care setting. A cross-sectional study of ambulatory care visits made by adults aged 45 and older to primary care physicians. A probability sample of outpatient follow-up visits in the United States using the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) 2002 database. Of 28,738 physician visits in the 2002 NAMCS data set, there were 3,819 visits by adults aged 45 and older included in this study for analysis. The primary endpoint was the time that a physician spent with a patient at each visit. Covariates included for analyses were patient characteristics, physician characteristics, visit characteristics, and source of payment. Visit characteristics, including the number of diagnoses and the number of prescribed medications, the major diagnoses, and the therapeutic class of prescribed medications, were compared for different age groups (45-64, 65-74, and > or =75) to determine the complexity of the patient's medical conditions. Endpoint estimates were computed by age group and were also estimated based on study covariates using univariate and multivariate linear regression. The mean time+/-standard deviation spent with a physician was 17.9+/-8.5 minutes. There were no differences in the duration of visits between the age groups before or after adjustment for patient covariates. Patients aged 75 and older had more comorbid illness and were prescribed more medications than patients aged 45 to 64 and 65 to 74 (P<.001). Patients aged 75 and older were also prescribed more medications that require specific monitoring and counseling (warfarin, digoxin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, diuretics, and levothyroxine) than were patients in other age groups (P<.001). Hypertension, coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, and transient ischemic attack were more common in patients aged 75 and older than in other age groups (P<.001). Despite these differences, there were no differences in unadjusted or adjusted duration of physician visit between the age groups. Although patients aged 75 and older had more medical conditions and were at higher risk for drug-related problems than younger patients, the duration of physician visits was similar across the age groups. These findings suggest that elderly patients may require a multidisciplinary approach to optimize patient care in the ambulatory setting.

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

PubMed

Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

2011-01-01

Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future reductions in mortality.

The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

PubMed

Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

2014-09-01

In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

Systematic mapping review about costs and economic evaluations of skin conditions and diseases in the aged.

PubMed

Lichterfeld-Kottner, Andrea; Hahnel, Elisabeth; Blume-Peytavi, Ulrike; Kottner, Jan

2017-02-01

Skin conditions and dermatological diseases associated with advanced age (e.g. fungal infection, dry skin and itch) receive increasingly attention in clinical practice and research. Cost and economic evaluations are important sources to inform priority setting and ressource allocation decisions in healthcare. The economics of skin conditions in aged populations has not been systematically reviewed so far. The aim of this mapping review was to summarize the economic evidence of selected skin conditions in the aged (65 + years). A mapping literature review and evidence summary was conducted. Searches were conducted in data bases Medline and Embase via OVID. Cinahl was searched using EBSCO. References lists of potential eligible studies, reviews, guidelines or other sources were screened for additional literature. For evaluation of methodological quality of full economic analyses the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria (CHEC) checklist was used. Database searches resulted in 1388 records. A total of 270 articles were read in full-text. Thirty-five publications were finally included in the data analysis reporting 38 economic analyses. Ten cost of illness analyses and 26 cost-effectiveness analyses reporting about pressure ulcers, skin tears, pressure ulcers, incontinence associated dermatitis and intertrigo/contact dermatitis/candidiasis treatment and prevention and onychomycosis testing were identified. Limited evidence indicated that low air loss beds were more cost effective than standard beds for prevention of pressure ulcers. Standardized skin care regimens seem to lower the incidence of pressure ulcers, skin tears and IAD but a cost saving effect was not always observed. Findings of this mapping review indicate that there is a paucity of high quality evidence regarding the economic impact of age-associated skin conditions and diseases. Substantial heterogeneity in terms of study design, evaluation perspective, time period, and way of cost estimation was identified. Because of the overall low methodological quality clear cut conclusions cannot be drawn. Robust and large scales economic evaluations about skin conditions and disease in aged populations are needed in the future. Copyright © 2016 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

PubMed

Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

2012-11-30

Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain.

Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study

PubMed Central

Ferri, Cleusa P; Prince, Martin; Brayne, Carol; Brodaty, Henry; Fratiglioni, Laura; Ganguli, Mary; Hall, Kathleen; Hasegawa, Kazuo; Hendrie, Hugh; Huang, Yueqin; Jorm, Anthony; Mathers, Colin; Menezes, Paulo R; Rimmer, Elizabeth; Scazufca, Marcia

2010-01-01

Summary Background 100 years after the first description, Alzheimer's disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region. Methods 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality. Findings Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24·3 million people have dementia today, with 4·6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81·1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours. Interpretation We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources. PMID:16360788

Old-Age Disability and Wealth among Return Mexican Migrants from the United States

PubMed Central

Wong, Rebeca; Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Cesar

2012-01-01

Objective To examine the old-age consequences of international migration with a focus on disability and wealth from the perspective of the origin country. Methods Analysis sample includes persons aged 60+ from the Mexican Health and Aging Study, a national survey of older-adults in Mexico in 2001. Univariate methods are used to present a comparative profile of return migrants. Multivariate models are estimated for physical disability and wealth. Results Gender differences are profound. Return migrant women are more likely to be disabled while men are wealthier than comparable older adults in Mexico. Discussion Compared to current older adults, younger cohorts of Mexico-U.S. migrants increasingly include women, and more migrants seem likely to remain in the United States rather than return, thus more research will be needed on the old-age conditions of migrants in both countries. PMID:20876848

Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

2016-12-01

Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research will combine mangrove growth-age and biomass modeling in other mangrove ecosystems order to resolve the development patterns between different geomorphologies.

Effects of age and pathology on shear wave speed of the human rotator cuff.

PubMed

Baumer, Timothy G; Dischler, Jack; Davis, Leah; Labyed, Yassin; Siegal, Daniel S; van Holsbeeck, Marnix; Moutzouros, Vasilios; Bey, Michael J

2018-01-01

Rotator cuff tears are common and often repaired surgically, but post-operative repair tissue healing, and shoulder function can be unpredictable. Tear chronicity is believed to influence clinical outcomes, but conventional clinical approaches for assessing tear chronicity are subjective. Shear wave elastography (SWE) is a promising technique for assessing soft tissue via estimates of shear wave speed (SWS), but this technique has not been used extensively on the rotator cuff. Specifically, the effects of age and pathology on rotator cuff SWS are not well known. The objectives of this study were to assess the association between SWS and age in healthy, asymptomatic subjects, and to compare measures of SWS between patients with a rotator cuff tear and healthy, asymptomatic subjects. SWE images of the supraspinatus muscle and intramuscular tendon were acquired from 19 asymptomatic subjects and 11 patients with a rotator cuff tear. Images were acquired with the supraspinatus under passive and active (i.e., minimal activation) conditions. Mean SWS was positively associated with age in the supraspinatus muscle and tendon under passive and active conditions (p ≤ 0.049). Compared to asymptomatic subjects, patients had a lower mean SWS in their muscle and tendon under active conditions (p ≤ 0.024), but no differences were detected under passive conditions (p ≥ 0.783). These findings identify the influences of age and pathology on SWS in the rotator cuff. These preliminary findings are an important step toward evaluating the clinical utility of SWE for assessing rotator cuff pathology. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 36:282-288, 2018. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Combining facial dynamics with appearance for age estimation.

PubMed

Dibeklioglu, Hamdi; Alnajar, Fares; Ali Salah, Albert; Gevers, Theo

2015-06-01

Estimating the age of a human from the captured images of his/her face is a challenging problem. In general, the existing approaches to this problem use appearance features only. In this paper, we show that in addition to appearance information, facial dynamics can be leveraged in age estimation. We propose a method to extract and use dynamic features for age estimation, using a person's smile. Our approach is tested on a large, gender-balanced database with 400 subjects, with an age range between 8 and 76. In addition, we introduce a new database on posed disgust expressions with 324 subjects in the same age range, and evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach when used with another expression. State-of-the-art appearance-based age estimation methods from the literature are implemented as baseline. We demonstrate that for each of these methods, the addition of the proposed dynamic features results in statistically significant improvement. We further propose a novel hierarchical age estimation architecture based on adaptive age grouping. We test our approach extensively, including an exploration of spontaneous versus posed smile dynamics, and gender-specific age estimation. We show that using spontaneity information reduces the mean absolute error by up to 21%, advancing the state of the art for facial age estimation.

Recognizing Age-Separated Face Images: Humans and Machines

PubMed Central

Yadav, Daksha; Singh, Richa; Vatsa, Mayank; Noore, Afzel

2014-01-01

Humans utilize facial appearance, gender, expression, aging pattern, and other ancillary information to recognize individuals. It is interesting to observe how humans perceive facial age. Analyzing these properties can help in understanding the phenomenon of facial aging and incorporating the findings can help in designing effective algorithms. Such a study has two components - facial age estimation and age-separated face recognition. Age estimation involves predicting the age of an individual given his/her facial image. On the other hand, age-separated face recognition consists of recognizing an individual given his/her age-separated images. In this research, we investigate which facial cues are utilized by humans for estimating the age of people belonging to various age groups along with analyzing the effect of one's gender, age, and ethnicity on age estimation skills. We also analyze how various facial regions such as binocular and mouth regions influence age estimation and recognition capabilities. Finally, we propose an age-invariant face recognition algorithm that incorporates the knowledge learned from these observations. Key observations of our research are: (1) the age group of newborns and toddlers is easiest to estimate, (2) gender and ethnicity do not affect the judgment of age group estimation, (3) face as a global feature, is essential to achieve good performance in age-separated face recognition, and (4) the proposed algorithm yields improved recognition performance compared to existing algorithms and also outperforms a commercial system in the young image as probe scenario. PMID:25474200

Recognizing age-separated face images: humans and machines.

PubMed

Yadav, Daksha; Singh, Richa; Vatsa, Mayank; Noore, Afzel

2014-01-01

Humans utilize facial appearance, gender, expression, aging pattern, and other ancillary information to recognize individuals. It is interesting to observe how humans perceive facial age. Analyzing these properties can help in understanding the phenomenon of facial aging and incorporating the findings can help in designing effective algorithms. Such a study has two components--facial age estimation and age-separated face recognition. Age estimation involves predicting the age of an individual given his/her facial image. On the other hand, age-separated face recognition consists of recognizing an individual given his/her age-separated images. In this research, we investigate which facial cues are utilized by humans for estimating the age of people belonging to various age groups along with analyzing the effect of one's gender, age, and ethnicity on age estimation skills. We also analyze how various facial regions such as binocular and mouth regions influence age estimation and recognition capabilities. Finally, we propose an age-invariant face recognition algorithm that incorporates the knowledge learned from these observations. Key observations of our research are: (1) the age group of newborns and toddlers is easiest to estimate, (2) gender and ethnicity do not affect the judgment of age group estimation, (3) face as a global feature, is essential to achieve good performance in age-separated face recognition, and (4) the proposed algorithm yields improved recognition performance compared to existing algorithms and also outperforms a commercial system in the young image as probe scenario.

Children concurrently wasted and stunted: A meta‐analysis of prevalence data of children 6–59 months from 84 countries

PubMed Central

Khara, Tanya; Mwangome, Martha; Ngari, Moses

2017-01-01

Abstract Children can be stunted and wasted at the same time. Having both deficits greatly elevates risk of mortality. The analysis aimed to estimate the prevalence and burden of children aged 6–59 months concurrently wasted and stunted. Data from demographic and health survey and Multi‐indicator Cluster Surveys datasets from 84 countries were analysed. Overall prevalence for being wasted, stunted, and concurrently wasted and stunted among children 6 to 59 months was calculated. A pooled prevalence of concurrence was estimated and reported by gender, age, United Nations regions, and contextual categories. Burden was calculated using population figures from the global joint estimates database. The pooled prevalence of concurrence in the 84 countries was 3.0%, 95% CI [2.97, 3.06], ranging from 0% to 8.0%. Nine countries reported a concurrence prevalence greater than 5%. The estimated burden was 5,963,940 children. Prevalence of concurrence was highest in the 12‐ to 24‐month age group 4.2%, 95% CI [4.1, 4.3], and was significantly higher among boys 3.54%, 95% CI [3.47, 3.61], compared to girls; 2.46%, 95% CI [2.41, 2.52]. Fragile and conflict‐affected states reported significantly higher concurrence 3.6%, 95% CI [3.5, 3.6], than those defined as stable 2.24%, 95% CI [2.18, 2.30]. This analysis represents the first multiple country estimation of the prevalence and burden of children concurrently wasted and stunted. Given the high risk of mortality associated with concurrence, the findings indicate a need to report on this condition as well as investigate whether these children are being reached through existing programmes. PMID:28944990

Population-Based Microcephaly Surveillance in the United States, 2009 to 2013: An Analysis of Potential Sources of Variation

PubMed Central

Cragan, Janet D.; Isenburg, Jennifer L.; Parker, Samantha E.; Alverson, C.J.; Meyer, Robert E.; Stallings, Erin B.; Kirby, Russell S.; Lupo, Philip J.; Liu, Jennifer S.; Seagroves, Amanda; Ethen, Mary K.; Cho, Sook Ja; Evans, MaryAnn; Liberman, Rebecca F.; Fornoff, Jane; Browne, Marilyn L.; Rutkowski, Rachel E.; Nance, Amy E.; Anderka, Marlene; Fox, Deborah J.; Steele, Amy; Copeland, Glenn; Romitti, Paul A.; Mai, Cara T.

2017-01-01

Background Congenital microcephaly has been linked to maternal Zika virus infection. However, ascertaining infants diagnosed with microcephaly can be challenging. Methods Thirty birth defects surveillance programs provided data on infants diagnosed with microcephaly born 2009 to 2013. The pooled prevalence of microcephaly per 10,000 live births was estimated overall and by maternal/infant characteristics. Variation in prevalence was examined across case finding methods. Nine programs provided data on head circumference and conditions potentially contributing to microcephaly. Results The pooled prevalence of microcephaly was 8.7 per 10,000 live births. Median prevalence (per 10,000 live births) was similar among programs using active (6.7) and passive (6.6) methods; the interdecile range of prevalence estimates was wider among programs using passive methods for all race/ethnicity categories except Hispanic. Prevalence (per 10,000 live births) was lowest among non-Hispanic Whites (6.5) and highest among non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics (11.2 and 11.9, respectively); estimates followed a U-shaped distribution by maternal age with the highest prevalence among mothers <20 years (11.5) and ≥40 years (13.2). For gestational age and birth weight, the highest prevalence was among infants <32 weeks gestation and infants <1500 gm. Case definitions varied; 41.8% of cases had an HC ≥ the 10th percentile for sex and gestational age. Conclusion Differences in methods, population distribution of maternal/infant characteristics, and case definitions for microcephaly can contribute to the wide range of observed prevalence estimates across individual birth defects surveillance programs. Addressing these factors in the setting of Zika virus infection can improve the quality of prevalence estimates. PMID:27891783

Chlorophyll fluorescence, a nondestructive method to assess maturity of mango fruits (Cv. 'Cogshall') without growth conditions bias.

PubMed

Lechaudel, Mathieu; Urban, Laurent; Joas, Jacques

2010-07-14

The quality of ripe mango fruits depends on maturity stage at harvest, which is usually assessed by visible criteria or from estimates of the age of fruit. The present study deals with the potential of chlorophyll fluorescence as a nondestructive method to assess the degree of fruit maturity regardless of fruit growing conditions. Chlorophyll fluorescence parameters were measured along with respiration rates of fruits still attached to the tree. At the same harvest stage, based on the fruit age or the thermal time sum (degree-days) method, physical and biochemical measurements related to fruit maturity and quality were made. Shaded fruits had a significantly greener flesh color, as well as a lower fruit density and flesh dry matter content, than well-exposed fruits, showing that fruits at the top of the canopy were more mature than fruits within the canopy, which were still in a growth phase. Additionally, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters, F(o), F(m), and F(v), were significantly lower for fruits taken from the top of the canopy than for those from within the canopy. The unique relationship observed between chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and fruit maturity, estimated by internal carbon dioxide content, on fruit still attached to trees is independent of growing conditions, such as the position of the fruit in the canopy and carbohydrate supply. The chlorophyll fluorescence method evaluates maturity much more accurately than the degree-day method and, moreover, nondestructively provides values for individual fruits before harvest.

Validity of gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and neonatal examination compared to ultrasound in Vietnam.

PubMed

Deputy, Nicholas P; Nguyen, Phuong H; Pham, Hoa; Nguyen, Son; Neufeld, Lynnette; Martorell, Reynaldo; Ramakrishnan, Usha

2017-01-11

Accurate estimation of gestational age is important for both clinical and public health purposes. Estimates of gestational age using fetal ultrasound measurements are considered most accurate but are frequently unavailable in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of last menstrual period and Farr neonatal examination estimates of gestational age, compared to ultrasound estimates, in a large cohort of women in Vietnam. Data for this analysis come from a randomized, placebo-controlled micronutrient supplementation trial in Vietnam. We analyzed 912 women with ultrasound and prospectively-collected last menstrual period estimates of gestational age and 685 women with ultrasound and Farr estimates of gestational age. We used the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test to assess differences in gestational age estimated by last menstrual period or Farr examination compared to ultrasound and computed the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to quantify agreement between methods. We computed the Kappa coefficient (κ) to quantify agreement in preterm, term and post-term classification. The median gestational age estimated by ultrasound was 273.9 days. Gestational age was slightly overestimated by last menstrual period (median 276.0 days, P < 0.001) and more greatly overestimated by Farr examination (median 286.7 days, P < 0.001). Gestational age estimates by last menstrual period and ultrasound were moderately correlated (ICC = 0.78) and concordant (CCC = 0.63), whereas gestational age estimates by Farr examination and ultrasound were weakly correlated (ICC = 0.26) and concordant (CCC = 0.05). Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age were within ± 14 days for 88.4% of women; Farr and ultrasound estimates were within ± 14 days for 55.8% of women. Last menstrual period and ultrasound estimates of gestational age had higher agreement in term classification (κ = 0.41) than Farr and ultrasound (κ = 0.05). In this study of women in Vietnam, we found last menstrual period provided a more accurate estimate of gestational age than the Farr examination when compared to ultrasound. These findings provide useful information about the utility and accuracy of different methods to estimate gestational age and suggest last menstrual period may be preferred over Farr examination in settings where ultrasound is unavailable. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.Gov as NCT01665378 on August 13, 2012.

Age, state, environment, and season dependence of senescence in body mass.

PubMed

Kroeger, Svenja B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B; Reid, Jane M; Martin, Julien G A

2018-02-01

Senescence is a highly variable process that comprises both age-dependent and state-dependent components and can be greatly affected by environmental conditions. However, few studies have quantified the magnitude of age-dependent and state-dependent senescence in key life-history traits across individuals inhabiting different spatially structured and seasonal environments. We used longitudinal data from wild female yellow-bellied marmots ( Marmota flaviventer ), living in two adjacent environments that differ in elevation and associated phenology, to quantify how age and individual state, measured as "time to death," affect body mass senescence in different environments. Further, we quantified how patterns of senescence differed between two biologically distinct seasons, spring, and late summer. Body mass senescence had an age-dependent component, expressed as a decrease in mass in old age. Overall, estimated age-dependent senescence was greater in females living in the more favorable lower elevation environment, than in the harsher higher elevation environment, and greater in late summer than in spring. Body mass senescence also had a state-dependent component, captured by effects of time to death, but only in the more favorable lower elevation environment. In spring, body mass gradually decreased from 2 years before death, whereas in late summer, state-dependent effects were expressed as a terminal decrease in body mass in the last year of life. Contrary to expectations, we found that senescence was more likely to be observed under more favorable environmental conditions, rather than under harsher conditions. By further demonstrating that senescence patterns differ among seasons, our results imply that within-year temporal environmental variation must be considered alongside spatial environmental variation in order to characterize and understand the pattern and magnitude of senescence in wild populations.

Effort testing in children: can cognitive and symptom validity measures differentiate malingered performances?

PubMed

Rambo, Philip L; Callahan, Jennifer L; Hogan, Lindsey R; Hullmann, Stephanie; Wrape, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Recent efforts have contributed to significant advances in the detection of malingered performances in adults during cognitive assessment. However, children's ability to purposefully underperform has received relatively little attention. The purpose of the present investigation was to examine children's performances on common intellectual measures, as well as two symptom validity measures: the Test of Memory Malingering and the Dot-Counting Test. This was accomplished through the administration of measures to children ages 6 to 12 years old in randomly assigned full-effort (control) and poor-effort (treatment) conditions. Prior to randomization, children's general intellectual functioning (i.e., IQ) was estimated via administration of the Kaufman Brief Intellectual Battery-Second Edition (KBIT-2). Multivariate analyses revealed that the conditions significantly differed on some but not all administered measures. Specifically, children's estimated IQ in the treatment condition significantly differed from the full-effort IQ initially obtained from the same children on the KBIT-2, as well as from the IQs obtained in the full-effort control condition. These findings suggest that children are fully capable of willfully underperforming during cognitive testing; however, consistent with prior investigations, some measures evidence greater sensitivity than others in evaluating effort.

Precision of four otolith techniques for estimating age of white perch from a thermally altered reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snow, Richard A.; Porta, Michael J.; Long, James M.

2018-01-01

The White Perch Morone americana is an invasive species in many Midwestern states and is widely distributed in reservoir systems, yet little is known about the species' age structure and population dynamics. White Perch were first observed in Sooner Reservoir, a thermally altered cooling reservoir in Oklahoma, by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation in 2006. It is unknown how thermally altered systems like Sooner Reservoir may affect the precision of White Perch age estimates. Previous studies have found that age structures from Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides and Bluegills Lepomis macrochirus from thermally altered reservoirs had false annuli, which increased error when estimating ages. Our objective was to quantify the precision of White Perch age estimates using four sagittal otolith preparation techniques (whole, broken, browned, and stained). Because Sooner Reservoir is thermally altered, we also wanted to identify the best month to collect a White Perch age sample based on aging precision. Ages of 569 White Perch (20–308 mm TL) were estimated using the four techniques. Age estimates from broken, stained, and browned otoliths ranged from 0 to 8 years; whole‐view otolith age estimates ranged from 0 to 7 years. The lowest mean coefficient of variation (CV) was obtained using broken otoliths, whereas the highest CV was observed using browned otoliths. July was the most precise month (lowest mean CV) for estimating age of White Perch, whereas April was the least precise month (highest mean CV). These results underscore the importance of knowing the best method to prepare otoliths for achieving the most precise age estimates and the best time of year to obtain those samples, as these factors may affect other estimates of population dynamics.

Critical review of on-board capacity estimation techniques for lithium-ion batteries in electric and hybrid electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmann, Alexander; Waag, Wladislaw; Marongiu, Andrea; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

2015-05-01

This work provides an overview of available methods and algorithms for on-board capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries. An accurate state estimation for battery management systems in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles is becoming more essential due to the increasing attention paid to safety and lifetime issues. Different approaches for the estimation of State-of-Charge, State-of-Health and State-of-Function are discussed and analyzed by many authors and researchers in the past. On-board estimation of capacity in large lithium-ion battery packs is definitely one of the most crucial challenges of battery monitoring in the aforementioned vehicles. This is mostly due to high dynamic operation and conditions far from those used in laboratory environments as well as the large variation in aging behavior of each cell in the battery pack. Accurate capacity estimation allows an accurate driving range prediction and accurate calculation of a battery's maximum energy storage capability in a vehicle. At the same time it acts as an indicator for battery State-of-Health and Remaining Useful Lifetime estimation.

Successful Aging in the Context of the Disablement Process: Working and Volunteering as Moderators on the Association Between Chronic Conditions and Subsequent Functional Limitations.

PubMed

Kail, Ben Lennox; Carr, Dawn C

2017-03-01

This study evaluated the successful aging model by assessing the impact of two forms of productive engagement-working and volunteering-as potential interventions in the process of disablement. The Health and Retirement Study was used to (a) estimate two-stage selection equations of (i) currently working part time and full time and (ii) currently volunteering less than 100 hours and volunteering 100 hours or more per year (net of chronic health problems) and (b) assess whether, net of selection, working, and volunteering moderate the association between chronic conditions and subsequent functional limitations. Chronic conditions were associated with elevated levels of subsequent functional limitations, whereas both working and volunteering were associated with lower levels of subsequent functional limitations. Moreover, workers and volunteers of less than 100 hours per year experienced a reduction in the association of chronic conditions on subsequent functional limitations. This research highlights the role of productive engagement as a key element in successful aging. Not only do work and volunteering have direct associations with health outcomes themselves, but they also act as potential interventions in the process of disablement by attenuating the way in which chronic conditions are translated into subsequent functional limitations. This suggests that (a) future research should apply successful aging models to health processes as well as health outcomes and (b) policy makers should support social institutions that foster late-life productive engagement. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Healthy older adults have insufficient hip range of motion and plantar flexor strength to walk like healthy young adults.

PubMed

Anderson, Dennis E; Madigan, Michael L

2014-03-21

Limited plantar flexor strength and hip extension range of motion (ROM) in older adults are believed to underlie common age-related differences in gait. However, no studies of age-related differences in gait have quantified the percentage of strength and ROM used during gait. We examined peak hip angles, hip torques and plantar flexor torques, and corresponding estimates of functional capacity utilized (FCU), which we define as the percentage of available strength or joint ROM used, in 10 young and 10 older healthy adults walking under self-selected and controlled (slow and fast) conditions. Older adults walked with about 30% smaller hip extension angle, 28% larger hip flexion angle, 34% more hip extensor torque in the slow condition, and 12% less plantar flexor torque in the fast condition than young adults. Older adults had higher FCU than young adults for hip flexion angle (47% vs. 34%) and hip extensor torque (48% vs. 27%). FCUs for plantar flexor torque (both age groups) and hip extension angle (older adults in all conditions; young adults in self-selected gait) were not significantly <100%, and were higher than for other measures examined. Older adults lacked sufficient hip extension ROM to walk with a hip extension angle as large as that of young adults. Similarly, in the fast gait condition older adults lacked the strength to match the plantar flexor torque produced by young adults. This supports the hypothesis that hip extension ROM and plantar flexor strength are limiting factors in gait and contribute to age-related differences in gait. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urinary and fecal incontinence in a community-residing older population in Japan.

PubMed

Nakanishi, N; Tatara, K; Naramura, H; Fujiwara, H; Takashima, Y; Fukuda, H

1997-02-01

To estimate the prevalence and risk factors of urinary and fecal incontinence among a community-residing older population in Japan. Population-based cross-sectional study. A randomly selected sample of 1473 people aged 65 years and older living in the City of Settsu, Osaka, in 1992. Data collected via in-home visits were used to estimate the prevalence of urinary and fecal incontinence and to provide information regarding potential risk factors of urinary and fecal incontinence. Data were obtained from 1405 older adults, a response rate of 95.4%. The prevalence of any degree of urinary incontinence was 98/1000 in both sexes, and 87/ 1000 men and 66/1000 women admitted to some degree of fecal incontinence. Daily, 34/1000 and 20/1000 of the population were incontinent of urine and feces, respectively. There was an increasing prevalence of urinary and fecal incontinence with age in both sexes, but the expected greater prevalence in women was not found. By univariate analyses, age older than 75 years, poor general health as measured by Activities of Daily Living, stroke, dementia, no participation in social activities, and lack of life worth living (Ikigai) were associated significantly with both urinary and fecal incontinence. In the multivariate analyses using logistic regression, age older than 75 years, poor general health, and stroke were independent risk factors for any type of incontinence. Diabetes was an independent risk factor for isolated fecal incontinence, and dementia and no participation in social activities were independent risk factors for double incontinence. Incontinence of urine and feces is a prevalent condition among very old people living in the community in Japan and is associated highly with health and psychosocial conditions.

Effects of osteoporosis on AIS 3+ injury risk in motor-vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Hoff, Carrie N; Cunningham, Rebecca M

2010-11-01

Older occupants in motor-vehicle crashes are more likely to experience injury than younger occupants. One possible reason for this is that increasing age is associated with increased prevalence of osteoporosis, which decreases bone strength. Crash-injury data were used with Bayes' Theorem to estimate the conditional probability of AIS 3+ skeletal injury given that an occupant is osteoporotic for the injury to the head, spine, thorax, lower extremities, and upper extremities. This requires the conditional probabilities of osteoporosis given AIS 3+ injury for each of the body regions, which were determined from analysis of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. It also requires information on probability of osteoporosis in the crash-involved population and the probabilities of AIS 3+ skeletal injury to different body regions in crashes. The latter probabilities were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database. The former was obtained by modeling the probability of osteoporosis in the US populations using data from the 2006 National Health Examination Nutrition Survey and applying this model to the estimate of the crash-involved population in NASS-CDS. To attempt to account for the effects of age on injury outcome that are independent of osteoporosis, only data from occupants who were 60 years of age or older were used in all analyses. Results indicate that the only body region that experiences a statistically significant change in fracture injury risk with osteoporosis is the spine, for which osteoporosis increases the risk of AIS 3+ fracture by 3.28 times, or from 0.41% to 1.34% (p<0.0001). This finding suggests that the increase in AIS 3+ injury risk with age for non-spine injuries is likely influenced by factors other than osteoporosis. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

PubMed Central

Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

2015-01-01

Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

Modification of claims-based measures improves identification of comorbidities in non-elderly women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Nickel, Katelin B; Wallace, Anna E; Warren, David K; Ball, Kelly E; Mines, Daniel; Fraser, Victoria J; Olsen, Margaret A

2016-08-16

Accurate identification of underlying health conditions is important to fully adjust for confounders in studies using insurer claims data. Our objective was to evaluate the ability of four modifications to a standard claims-based measure to estimate the prevalence of select comorbid conditions compared with national prevalence estimates. In a cohort of 11,973 privately insured women aged 18-64 years with mastectomy from 1/04-12/11 in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database, we identified diabetes, hypertension, deficiency anemia, smoking, and obesity from inpatient and outpatient claims for the year prior to surgery using four different algorithms. The standard comorbidity measure was compared to revised algorithms which included outpatient medications for diabetes, hypertension and smoking; an expanded timeframe encompassing the mastectomy admission; and an adjusted time interval and number of required outpatient claims. A χ2 test of proportions was used to compare prevalence estimates for 5 conditions in the mastectomy population to national health survey datasets (Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey). Medical record review was conducted for a sample of women to validate the identification of smoking and obesity. Compared to the standard claims algorithm, use of the modified algorithms increased prevalence from 4.79 to 6.79 % for diabetes, 14.75 to 24.87 % for hypertension, 4.23 to 6.65 % for deficiency anemia, 1.78 to 12.87 % for smoking, and 1.14 to 6.31 % for obesity. The revised estimates were more similar, but not statistically equivalent, to nationally reported prevalence estimates. Medical record review revealed low sensitivity (17.86 %) to capture obesity in the claims, moderate negative predictive value (NPV, 71.78 %) and high specificity (99.15 %) and positive predictive value (PPV, 90.91 %); the claims algorithm for current smoking had relatively low sensitivity (62.50 %) and PPV (50.00 %), but high specificity (92.19 %) and NPV (95.16 %). Modifications to a standard comorbidity measure resulted in prevalence estimates that were closer to expected estimates for non-elderly women than the standard measure. Adjustment of the standard claims algorithm to identify underlying comorbid conditions should be considered depending on the specific conditions and the patient population studied.

Children on the autism spectrum update their behaviour in response to a volatile environment.

PubMed

Manning, Catherine; Kilner, James; Neil, Louise; Karaminis, Themelis; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2017-09-01

Typical adults can track reward probabilities across trials to estimate the volatility of the environment and use this information to modify their learning rate (Behrens et al., 2007). In a stable environment, it is advantageous to take account of outcomes over many trials, whereas in a volatile environment, recent experience should be more strongly weighted than distant experience. Recent predictive coding accounts of autism propose that autistic individuals will demonstrate atypical updating of their behaviour in response to the statistics of the reward environment. To rigorously test this hypothesis, we administered a developmentally appropriate version of Behrens et al.'s (2007) task to 34 cognitively able children on the autism spectrum aged between 6 and 14 years, 32 age- and ability-matched typically developing children and 19 typical adults. Participants were required to choose between a green and a blue pirate chest, each associated with a randomly determined reward value between 0 and 100 points, with a combined total of 100 points. On each trial, the reward was given for one stimulus only. In the stable condition, the ratio of the blue or green response being rewarded was fixed at 75:25. In the volatile condition, the ratio alternated between 80:20 and 20:80 every 20 trials. We estimated the learning rate for each participant by fitting a delta rule model and compared this rate across conditions and groups. All groups increased their learning rate in the volatile condition compared to the stable condition. Unexpectedly, there was no effect of group and no interaction between group and condition. Thus, autistic children used information about the statistics of the reward environment to guide their decisions to a similar extent as typically developing children and adults. These results help constrain predictive coding accounts of autism by demonstrating that autism is not characterized by uniform differences in the weighting of prediction error. © 2016 The Authors. Developmental Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temporal trends in maternal medical conditions and stillbirth.

PubMed

Patel, Emily M; Goodnight, William H; James, Andra H; Grotegut, Chad A

2015-05-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence and temporal trends of medical conditions among women with stillbirth and to determine the effect of medical comorbidities on the trend of stillbirth. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for the years 2008-2010 was first queried for all delivery-related discharges. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) calculated for medical conditions among women with stillbirth. The NIS was then queried for the years 2000-2010, and the effect of maternal medical conditions on the stillbirth rate was estimated. From 2008 to 2010, there were 51,080 deliveries to women with stillbirth, giving a rate of 4.08 per 1000 live births. Women with stillbirth were more likely to be African American (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 2.07-2.17), with an age less than 25 years (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.16-1.22) or older than 35 years (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.37-1.44) compared with women without stillbirth. Medical conditions such as cardiac, rheumatological, and renal disorders; hypertension; diabetes; thrombophilia; and drug, alcohol and tobacco use, were independent predictors of fetal demise in multivariable logistic regression modeling. From 2000 to 2010, despite an increase in the total number of births to women with comorbidities, there was a significant decrease in the stillbirth rate, which was more pronounced among women with comorbidities compared with women without comorbidities (P=.021). From 2000 to 2010, there was a significantly greater decrease in the stillbirth rate among women with maternal medical conditions than there was among women without comorbidities. These findings occurred despite an overall increase in the number of pregnancies to women with medical comorbidities over the time period. Because the NIS does not include information on gestational age, birthweight, or whether subjects had antepartum testing, we are not able to determine the effect of these variables on the observed outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

10Be inventories in Alpine soils and their potentiality for dating land surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egli, Markus; Brandová, Dagmar; Böhlert, Ralph; Favilli, Filippo; Kubik, Peter W.

2010-05-01

To exploit natural archives and geomorphic objects it is necessary to date them first. Landscape evolution of Alpine areas is often strongly related to the activities of glaciers in the Pleistocene and Holocene. At sites where no organic matter for radiocarbon dating exists and where suitable boulders for surface exposure dating (using in situ produced cosmogenic nuclides) are absent, dating of soils could give information about the timing of landscape evolution. We explored the applicability of soil dating using the inventory of meteoric Be-10 in Alpine soils. For this purpose, a set of 6 soil profiles in the Swiss and Italian Alps was investigated. The surface at these sites had already been dated (using the radiocarbon technique or surface exposure dating using in situ produced Be-10). Consequently, a direct comparison of the ages of the soils using meteoric Be-10 and other dating techniques was made possible. The estimation of Be-10 deposition rates is subject to severe limitations and strongly influences the obtained results. We tested three scenarios using a) the meteoric Be-10 deposition rates as a function of the annual precipitation rate, b) a constant Be-10 input for the Central Alps and c) as b) but assuming a pre-exposure of the parent material. The obtained ages that are based on the Be-10 inventory in soils and on scenario a) for the Be-10 input agreed reasonably well with the expected age (obtained from surface exposure or radiocarbon dating). The ages obtained from soils using scenario b) produced mostly ages that were too old whereas the approach using scenario c) seemed to yield better results than scenario b). Erosion calculations can, in theory, be performed using the Be-10 inventory and Be-10 deposition rates. An erosion estimation was possible using scenario a) and c), but not using b). The estimated erosion rates are in a reasonable range. The dating of soils using Be-10 has several potential error sources. Analytical errors as well as errors from other parameters such as bulk soil density and soil skeleton content have to be taken into account. The error range was from 8 up to 21%. Furthermore, uncertainties in estimating Be-10 deposition rates substantially influence the calculated ages. Relative age estimates and, under optimal conditions, a numerical dating can be carried out. Age determination of Alpine soils using Be-10 gives another possibility to date surfaces when other methods fail or are not possible at all. It is, however, not straightforward, quite laborious and may consequently have some distinct limitations.

The development of an estimation model for energy expenditure during water walking by acceleration and walking speed.

PubMed

Kaneda, Koichi; Ohgi, Yuji; Tanaka, Chiaki; Burkett, Brendan

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop an estimation equation for energy expenditure during water walking based on the acceleration and walking speed. Cross-validation study. Fifty participants, males (n=29, age: 27-73) and females (n=21, age: 33-70) volunteered for this study. Based on their physical condition water walking was conducted at three self-selected walking speeds from a range of: 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 m/min. Energy expenditure during each trial was calculated. During water walking, an accelerometer was attached to the occipital region and recorded three-dimensional accelerations at 100 Hz. A stopwatch was used for timing the participant's walking speed. The estimation model for energy expenditure included three components; (i) resting metabolic rate, (ii) internal energy expenditure for moving participants' body, and (iii) external energy expenditure due to water drag force. When comparing the measured and estimated energy expenditure with the acceleration data being the third component of the estimation model, high correlation coefficients were found in both male (r=0.73) and female (r=0.77) groups. When walking speeds were applied to the third component of the model, higher correlation coefficients were found (r=0.82 in male and r=0.88 in female). Good agreements of the developed estimation model were found in both methods, regardless of gender. This study developed a valid estimation model for energy expenditure during water walking by using head acceleration and walking speed. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What automated age estimation of hand and wrist MRI data tells us about skeletal maturation in male adolescents.

PubMed

Urschler, Martin; Grassegger, Sabine; Štern, Darko

2015-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is important in human biology and has various medical and forensic applications. Recent interest in MR-based methods aims to investigate alternatives for established methods involving ionising radiation. Automatic, software-based methods additionally promise improved estimation objectivity. To investigate how informative automatically selected image features are regarding their ability to discriminate age, by exploring a recently proposed software-based age estimation method for MR images of the left hand and wrist. One hundred and two MR datasets of left hand images are used to evaluate age estimation performance, consisting of bone and epiphyseal gap volume localisation, computation of one age regression model per bone mapping image features to age and fusion of individual bone age predictions to a final age estimate. Quantitative results of the software-based method show an age estimation performance with a mean absolute difference of 0.85 years (SD = 0.58 years) to chronological age, as determined by a cross-validation experiment. Qualitatively, it is demonstrated how feature selection works and which image features of skeletal maturation are automatically chosen to model the non-linear regression function. Feasibility of automatic age estimation based on MRI data is shown and selected image features are found to be informative for describing anatomical changes during physical maturation in male adolescents.

Age, year‐class strength variability, and partial age validation of Kiyis from Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepak, Taylor A.; Ogle, Derek H.; Vinson, Mark

2017-01-01

ge estimates of Lake Superior Kiyis Coregonus kiyi from scales and otoliths were compared and 12 years (2003–2014) of length frequency data were examined to assess year‐class strength and validate age estimates. Ages estimated from otoliths were precise and were consistently older than ages estimated from scales. Maximum otolith‐derived ages were 20 years for females and 12 years for males. Age estimates showed high numbers of fish of ages 5, 6, and 11 in 2014, corresponding to the 2009, 2008, and 2003 year‐classes, respectively. Strong 2003 and 2009 year‐classes, along with the 2005 year‐class, were also evident based on distinct modes of age‐1 fish (<110 mm) in the length frequency distributions from 2004, 2010, and 2006, respectively. Modes from these year‐classes were present as progressively larger fish in subsequent years. Few to no age‐1 fish (<110 mm) were present in all other years. Ages estimated from otoliths were generally within 1 year of the ages corresponding to strong year‐classes, at least for age‐5 and older fish, suggesting that Kiyi age may be reliably estimated to within 1 year by careful examination of thin‐sectioned otoliths.

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence, Incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Oral Conditions for 195 Countries, 1990-2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors.

PubMed

Kassebaum, N J; Smith, A G C; Bernabé, E; Fleming, T D; Reynolds, A E; Vos, T; Murray, C J L; Marcenes, W

2017-04-01

The Global Burden of Disease 2015 study aims to use all available data of sufficient quality to generate reliable and valid prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) estimates of oral conditions for the period of 1990 to 2015. Since death as a direct result of oral diseases is rare, DALY estimates were based on years lived with disability, which are estimated only on those persons with unmet need for dental care. We used our data to assess progress toward the Federation Dental International, World Health Organization, and International Association for Dental Research's oral health goals of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact by 2020. Oral health has not improved in the last 25 y, and oral conditions remained a major public health challenge all over the world in 2015. Due to demographic changes, including population growth and aging, the cumulative burden of oral conditions dramatically increased between 1990 and 2015. The number of people with untreated oral conditions rose from 2.5 billion in 1990 to 3.5 billion in 2015, with a 64% increase in DALYs due to oral conditions throughout the world. Clearly, oral diseases are highly prevalent in the globe, posing a very serious public health challenge to policy makers. Greater efforts and potentially different approaches are needed if the oral health goal of reducing the level of oral diseases and minimizing their impact is to be achieved by 2020. Despite some challenges with current measurement methodologies for oral diseases, measurable specific oral health goals should be developed to advance global public health.

DOES MEDICARE SAVE LIVES?*

PubMed Central

Card, David; Dobkin, Carlos; Maestas, Nicole

2009-01-01

Health insurance characteristics shift at age 65 as most people become eligible for Medicare. We measure the impacts of these changes on patients who are admitted to hospitals through emergency departments for conditions with similar admission rates on weekdays and weekends. The age profiles of admissions and comorbidities for these patients are smooth at age 65, suggesting that the severity of illness is similar on either side of the Medicare threshold. In contrast, the number of procedures performed in hospitals and total list charges exhibit small but statistically significant discontinuities, implying that patients over 65 receive more services. We estimate a nearly 1-percentage-point drop in 7-day mortality for patients at age 65, equivalent to a 20% reduction in deaths for this severely ill patient group. The mortality gap persists for at least 9 months after admission. PMID:19920880

Estimating Energy Expenditure Using Heat Flux Measured at Single Body Site

PubMed Central

Lyden, Kate; Swibas, Tracy; Catenacci, Victoria; Guo, Ruixin; Szuminsky, Neil; Melanson, Edward L.

2014-01-01

Introduction The Personal Calorie Monitor (PCM) is a portable direct calorimeter that estimates energy expenditure (EE) from measured heat flux (i.e. the sum of conductive, convective, radiative, and evaporative). Purpose The primary aim of this study was to compare EE estimated from measures of heat flux to indirect calorimetry in a thermoneutral environment (26°C). A secondary aim was to determine if exposure to ambient temperature below thermoneutral (19°C) influences the accuracy of the PCM. Methods 34 Adults (mean±SD, age = 28±5 y, body mass index = 22.9±2.6 kg.m2) were studied for 5 h in a whole-room indirect calorimeter (IC) in thermoneutral and cool conditions. Participants wore the PCM on their upper arm and completed two, 20-minute treadmill-walking bouts (0% grade, 3 mph). The remaining time was spent sedentary (e.g., watching television, using a computer). Results In thermoneutral, EE (mean (95% CI)) measured by IC and PCM was 560.0 (526.5, 593.5) and 623.3 (535.5, 711.1) kcals, respectively. In cool, EE measured by IC and PCM was 572.5 (540.9, 604.0) and 745.5 (668.1, 822.8) kcals, respectively. Under thermoneutral conditions, mean PCM minute-by-minute EE tracked closely with IC, resulting in a small, non-significant bias (63 kcals (−5.8, 132.4)). During cool conditions, mean PCM minute-by-minute EE did not track IC, resulting in a large bias (173.0 (93.9, 252.1)) (p<0.001). Conclusion This study demonstrated the validity of using measured heat flux to estimate EE. However, accuracy may be impaired in cool conditions, possibly due to excess heat loss from the exposed limbs. PMID:24811326

A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabenstein, L.; Krumpen, T.; Hendricks, S.; Koeberle, C.; Haas, C.; Hoelemann, J. A.

2013-06-01

A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2-3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea ice varying in age from 1 to 116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km3. The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km3 ice production calculated with a~high-resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87-0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabenstein, L.; Krumpen, T.; Hendricks, S.; Koeberle, C.; Haas, C.; Hoelemann, J. A.

2013-02-01

A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2-3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea-ice varying in age from 1-116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km3. The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km3 ice production calculated with a high resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87-0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

Biogeographic Dating of Speciation Times Using Paleogeographically Informed Processes

PubMed Central

Landis, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Standard models of molecular evolution cannot estimate absolute speciation times alone, and require external calibrations to do so, such as fossils. Because fossil calibration methods rely on the incomplete fossil record, a great number of nodes in the tree of life cannot be dated precisely. However, many major paleogeographical events are dated, and since biogeographic processes depend on paleogeographical conditions, biogeographic dating may be used as an alternative or complementary method to fossil dating. I demonstrate how a time-stratified biogeographic stochastic process may be used to estimate absolute divergence times by conditioning on dated paleogeographical events. Informed by the current paleogeographical literature, I construct an empirical dispersal graph using 25 areas and 26 epochs for the past 540 Ma of Earth’s history. Simulations indicate biogeographic dating performs well so long as paleogeography imposes constraint on biogeographic character evolution. To gauge whether biogeographic dating may be of practical use, I analyzed the well-studied turtle clade (Testudines) to assess how well biogeographic dating fares when compared to fossil-calibrated dating estimates reported in the literature. Fossil-free biogeographic dating estimated the age of the most recent common ancestor of extant turtles to be from the Late Triassic, which is consistent with fossil-based estimates. Dating precision improves further when including a root node fossil calibration. The described model, paleogeographical dispersal graph, and analysis scripts are available for use with RevBayes. PMID:27155009

Diagnosed Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Learning Disability: United States, 2004-2006. Data from the National Health Interview Survey. Vital and Health Statistics. Series 10, Number 237

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pastor, Patricia N.; Reuben, Cynthia A.

2008-01-01

Objectives: This report presents national estimates of the prevalence of diagnosed attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and learning disability (LD) in U.S. children 6-17 years of age and describes the prevalence of these conditions for children with selected characteristics. The use of educational and health care services and the…

Impact of landfill liner time-temperature history on the service life of HDPE geomembranes.

PubMed

Rowe, R Kerry; Islam, M Z

2009-10-01

The observed temperatures in different landfills are used to establish a number of idealized time-temperature histories for geomembrane liners in municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. These are then used for estimating the service life of different HDPE geomembranes. The predicted antioxidant depletion times (Stage I) are between 7 and 750 years with the large variation depending on the specific HDPE geomembrane product, exposure conditions, and most importantly, the magnitude and duration of the peak liner temperature. The higher end of the range corresponds to data from geomembranes aged in simulated landfill liner tests and a maximum liner temperature of 37 degrees C. The lower end of the range corresponds to a testing condition where geomembranes were immersed in a synthetic leachate and a maximum liner temperature of 60 degrees C. The total service life of the geomembranes was estimated to be between 20 and 3300 years depending on the time-temperature history examined. The range illustrates the important role that time-temperature history could play in terms of geomembrane service life. The need for long-term monitoring of landfill liner temperature and for geomembrane ageing studies that will provide improved data for assessing the likely long-term performance of geomembranes in MSW landfills are highlighted.

Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

PubMed

Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

2015-12-01

A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation analyses of space use: Home range estimates, variability, and sample size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bekoff, Marc; Mech, L. David

1984-01-01

Simulations of space use by animals were run to determine the relationship among home range area estimates, variability, and sample size (number of locations). As sample size increased, home range size increased asymptotically, whereas variability decreased among mean home range area estimates generated by multiple simulations for the same sample size. Our results suggest that field workers should ascertain between 100 and 200 locations in order to estimate reliably home range area. In some cases, this suggested guideline is higher than values found in the few published studies in which the relationship between home range area and number of locations is addressed. Sampling differences for small species occupying relatively small home ranges indicate that fewer locations may be sufficient to allow for a reliable estimate of home range. Intraspecific variability in social status (group member, loner, resident, transient), age, sex, reproductive condition, and food resources also have to be considered, as do season, habitat, and differences in sampling and analytical methods. Comparative data still are needed.

Estimating distributions with increasing failure rate in an imperfect repair model.

PubMed

Kvam, Paul H; Singh, Harshinder; Whitaker, Lyn R

2002-03-01

A failed system is repaired minimally if after failure, it is restored to the working condition of an identical system of the same age. We extend the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a system's lifetime distribution function to test units that are known to have an increasing failure rate. Such items comprise a significant portion of working components in industry. The order-restricted MLE is shown to be consistent. Similar results hold for the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model, which dictates that a failed component is repaired perfectly with some unknown probability, and is otherwise repaired minimally. The estimators derived are motivated and illustrated by failure data in the nuclear industry. Failure times for groups of emergency diesel generators and motor-driven pumps are analyzed using the order-restricted methods. The order-restricted estimators are consistent and show distinct differences from the ordinary MLEs. Simulation results suggest significant improvement in reliability estimation is available in many cases when component failure data exhibit the IFR property.

Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Braeye, Toon; Verheagen, Jan; Mignon, Annick; Flipse, Wim; Pierard, Denis; Huygen, Kris; Schirvel, Carole; Hens, Niel

2016-01-01

Introduction Surveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented. Methods We investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples. Results No estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20–30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000. Conclusion We encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind. PMID:27529167

Growth curves of preschool children in the northeast of iran: a population based study using quantile regression approach.

PubMed

Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

2013-01-14

Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children's weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn't require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values.

Growth Curves of Preschool Children in the Northeast of Iran: A Population Based Study Using Quantile Regression Approach

PubMed Central

Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

2013-01-01

Introduction: Growth charts are widely used to assess children’s growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. Methods: A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. Results: The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children’s weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. Conclusion: The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn’t require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values. PMID:23618470

Do chronic conditions increase young children's risk of being maltreated?

PubMed

Jaudes, Paula Kienberger; Mackey-Bilaver, Lucy

2008-07-01

To examine whether and to what extent specific chronic health conditions place young children at risk of maltreatment. The study used a sample of Illinois children (born between January 1990 and March 1996) who were through age 3 continuously enrolled in Medicaid, a public health insurance program for low-income families. The study used "paid claims" data and ICD-9-CM health codes to identify children with one or more of three chronic conditions: chronic physical illness, developmental delay/mental retardation (dd/mr), and behavior/mental health conditions (b/mh). The analysis used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of substantiated child maltreatment that each of these health conditions confer on children under age 6. Among children under age 6, 24.1% had chronic physical health conditions, 6.1% had b/mh conditions, and 4.2% had dd/mr. Among the children, 11.7% were maltreated (abused or neglected). Children with b/mh conditions were 1.95 times more likely than children without such conditions to be victims of child abuse or neglect. Children with chronic physical health conditions were 1.1 time more likely to be maltreated (p

Insomnia and the Performance of US Workers: Results from the America Insomnia Survey

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Berglund, Patricia A.; Coulouvrat, Catherine; Hajak, Goeran; Roth, Thomas; Shahly, Victoria; Shillington, Alicia C.; Stephenson, Judith J.; Walsh, James K.

2011-01-01

Study Objectives: To estimate the prevalence and associations of broadly defined (i.e., meeting full ICD-10, DSM-IV, or RDC/ICSD-2 inclusion criteria) insomnia with work performance net of comorbid conditions in the America Insomnia Survey (AIS). Design/Setting: Cross-sectional telephone survey. Participants: National sample of 7,428 employed health plan subscribers (ages 18+). Interventions: None. Measurements and Results: Broadly defined insomnia was assessed with the Brief Insomnia Questionnaire (BIQ). Work absenteeism and presenteeism (low on-the-job work performance defined in the metric of lost workday equivalents) were assessed with the WHO Health and Work Performance Questionnaire (HPQ). Regression analysis examined associations between insomnia and HPQ scores controlling 26 comorbid conditions based on self-report and medical/pharmacy claims records. The estimated prevalence of insomnia was 23.2%. Insomnia was significantly associated with lost work performance due to presenteeism (χ21 = 39.5, P < 0.001) but not absenteeism (χ21 = 3.2, P = 0.07), with an annualized individual-level association of insomnia with presenteeism equivalent to 11.3 days of lost work performance. This estimate decreased to 7.8 days when controls were introduced for comorbid conditions. The individual-level human capital value of this net estimate was $2,280. If we provisionally assume these estimates generalize to the total US workforce, they are equivalent to annualized population-level estimates of 252.7 days and $63.2 billion. Conclusions: Insomnia is associated with substantial workplace costs. Although experimental studies suggest some of these costs could be recovered with insomnia disease management programs, effectiveness trials are needed to obtain precise estimates of return-on-investment of such interventions from the employer perspective. Citation: Kessler RC; Berglund PA; Coulouvrat C; Hajak G; Roth T; Shahly V; Shillington AC; Stephenson JJ; Walsh JK. Insomnia and the performance of US workers: results from the America Insomnia Survey.SLEEP 2011;34(9):1161-1171. PMID:21886353

Older driver crash rates in relation to type and quantity of travel.

PubMed

Keall, Michael D; Frith, William J

2004-03-01

It is a well-established phenomenon that, notwithstanding their overall good crash record, older drivers have a higher than average rate of involvement in injury crashes when the rate is calculated by dividing crash numbers by distance driven. It has been hypothesised that at least some of this higher crash rate is an artefact of the different nature of driving undertaken by many older drivers. For example, driving in congested urban environments provides more opportunities for collisions than driving the same distance on a motorway. However, there have been few opportunities to investigate this theory, as relevant data are difficult to acquire. High-quality data from the New Zealand Travel Survey (1997/1998) were combined with crash data to enable a statistical model to estimate the risk of driver groups under various driving conditions characterised by the type of road used, time of day, day of week, and season of year. Despite elevated crash risks per distance driven compared with middle-aged drivers for most road types, older drivers were as safe as any other age group when driving on motorways. Accounting for the fragility of older drivers and their passengers in the risk estimates for other road types, older drivers appeared to have daytime risks comparable to 25-year-olds and night-time risks as low as any other age group. The driving patterns of older drivers (in terms of when and where they drive) were estimated to minimize their risks in comparison with the driving patterns of other age groups. These results are of interest to both policy makers and transportation planners working against the background of inevitable increases in the number of older drivers as the population ages.

Case-control analysis of paternal age and trisomic anomalies.

PubMed

De Souza, E; Morris, J K

2010-11-01

To determine whether older paternal age increases the risk of fathering a pregnancy with Patau (trisomy 13), Edwards (trisomy 18), Klinefelter (XXY) or XYY syndrome. Case-control: cases with each of these syndromes were matched to four controls with Down syndrome from within the same congenital anomaly register and with maternal age within 6 months. Data from 22 EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers in 12 European countries. Diagnoses with observed or (for terminations) predicted year of birth from 1980 to 2005, comprising live births, fetal deaths with gestational age ≥ 20 weeks and terminations after prenatal diagnosis of the anomaly. Data include 374 cases of Patau syndrome, 929 of Edwards syndrome, 295 of Klinefelter syndrome, 28 of XYY syndrome and 5627 controls with Down syndrome. Odds ratio (OR) associated with a 10-year increase in paternal age for each anomaly was estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results were adjusted to take account of the estimated association of paternal age with Down syndrome (1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23). The OR for Patau syndrome was 1.10 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.45); for Edwards syndrome, 1.15 (0.96 to 1.38); for Klinefelter syndrome, 1.35 (1.02 to 1.79); and for XYY syndrome, 1.99 (0.75 to 5.26). There was a statistically significant increase in the odds of Klinefelter syndrome with increasing paternal age. The larger positive associations of Klinefelter and XYY syndromes with paternal age compared with Patau and Edwards syndromes are consistent with the greater percentage of these sex chromosome anomalies being of paternal origin.

Association between late-life social activity and motor decline in older adults.

PubMed

Buchman, Aron S; Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Fleischman, Debra A; Leurgans, Sue; Bennett, David A

2009-06-22

Loss of motor function is a common consequence of aging, but little is known about the factors that predict idiopathic motor decline. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that late-life social activity is related to the rate of change in motor function in old age. Longitudinal cohort study with a mean follow-up of 4.9 years with 906 persons without stroke, Parkinson disease, or dementia participating in the Rush Memory and Aging Project. At baseline, participants rated the frequency of their current participation in common social activities from which a summary measure of social activity was derived. The main outcome measure was annual change in a composite measure of global motor function, based on 9 measures of muscle strength and 9 motor performances. Mean (SD) social activity score at baseline was 2.6 (0.58), with higher scores indicating more frequent participation in social activities. In a generalized estimating equation model, controlling for age, sex, and education, global motor function declined by approximately 0.05 U/y (estimate, 0.016; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.057 to 0.041 [P = .02]). Each 1-point decrease in social activity was associated with approximately a 33% more rapid rate of decline in motor function (estimate, 0.016; 95% CI, 0.003 to 0.029 [P = .02]). The effect of each 1-point decrease in the social activity score at baseline on the rate of change in global motor function was the same as being approximately 5 years older at baseline (age estimate, -0.003; 95% CI, -0.004 to -0.002 [P<.001]). Furthermore, this amount of motor decline per year was associated with a more than 40% increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.60) and a 65% increased risk of incident Katz disability (hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.48 to 1.83). The association of social activity with the rate of global motor decline did not vary along demographic lines and was unchanged (estimate, 0.025; 95% CI, 0.005 to 0.045 [P = .01]) after controlling for potential confounders including late-life physical and cognitive activity, disability, global cognition depressive symptoms, body composition, and chronic medical conditions. Less frequent participation in social activities is associated with a more rapid rate of motor function decline in old age.

Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

PubMed

Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-05-08

We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

Estimating the Medical Care Costs of Obesity in the United States: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Empirical Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, David D; Basu, Anirban

2016-01-01

The prevalence of adult obesity exceeds 30% in the United States, posing a significant public health concern as well as a substantial financial burden. Although the impact of obesity on medical spending is undeniably significant, the estimated magnitude of the cost of obesity has varied considerably, perhaps driven by different study methodologies. To document variations in study design and methodology in existing literature and to understand the impact of those variations on the estimated costs of obesity. We conducted a systematic review of the twelve recently published articles that reported costs of obesity and performed a meta-analysis to generate a pooled estimate across those studies. Also, we performed an original analysis to understand the impact of different age groups, statistical models, and confounder adjustment on the magnitude of estimated costs using the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys from 2008-2010. We found significant variations among cost estimates in the existing literature. The meta-analysis found that the annual medical spending attributable to an obese individual was $1901 ($1239-$2582) in 2014 USD, accounting for $149.4 billion at the national level. The two most significant drivers of variability in the cost estimates were age groups and adjustment for obesity-related comorbid conditions. It would be important to acknowledge variations in the magnitude of the medical cost of obesity driven by different study design and methodology. Researchers and policy-makers need to be cautious on determining appropriate cost estimates according to their scientific and political questions. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mapping CHU9D Utility Scores from the PedsQLTM 4.0 SF-15.

PubMed

Mpundu-Kaambwa, Christine; Chen, Gang; Russo, Remo; Stevens, Katherine; Petersen, Karin Dam; Ratcliffe, Julie

2017-04-01

The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 Short Form 15 Generic Core Scales (hereafter the PedsQL) and the Child Health Utility-9 Dimensions (CHU9D) are two generic instruments designed to measure health-related quality of life in children and adolescents in the general population and paediatric patient groups living with specific health conditions. Although the PedsQL is widely used among paediatric patient populations, presently it is not possible to directly use the scores from the instrument to calculate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for application in economic evaluation because it produces summary scores which are not preference-based. This paper examines different econometric mapping techniques for estimating CHU9D utility scores from the PedsQL for the purpose of calculating QALYs for cost-utility analysis. The PedsQL and the CHU9D were completed by a community sample of 755 Australian adolescents aged 15-17 years. Seven regression models were estimated: ordinary least squares estimator, generalised linear model, robust MM estimator, multivariate factorial polynomial estimator, beta-binomial estimator, finite mixture model and multinomial logistic model. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess predictive ability of the models. The MM estimator with stepwise-selected PedsQL dimension scores as explanatory variables had the best predictive accuracy using MAE and the equivalent beta-binomial model had the best predictive accuracy using MSE. Our mapping algorithm facilitates the estimation of health-state utilities for use within economic evaluations where only PedsQL data is available and is suitable for use in community-based adolescents aged 15-17 years. Applicability of the algorithm in younger populations should be assessed in further research.

Exploring quality of life as an intervention outcome among women with stress-related disorders participating in work rehabilitation.

PubMed

Eklund, Mona

2015-01-01

Findings from quality of life studies are often inconclusive for reasons such as: i) estimates may address different aspects of quality of life and thus produce different outcomes; ii) quality of life is largely determined by self-factors; and iii) people with a long-term condition rate their quality of life better than those who have had their condition for a short duration. This makes quality of life a complex phenomenon to measure. The above explanations served as hypotheses for this methodologically oriented paper, based on a longitudinal study on women with stress-related disorders receiving work rehabilitation. Eighty-four women participating in a lifestyle intervention or care as usual were compared. Self-ratings of "general quality of life" and a summarized "satisfaction with different life domains" index (according to Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life) and two self-factors (self-esteem and self-mastery) were administered at admission and a 6-month follow-up. Participant age and amount of months on sick leave prior to rehabilitation were used as two proxies of duration of the condition. General quality of life distinguished between the groups, whereas satisfaction with life domains did not. Self-esteem and self-mastery were related to both quality of life aspects. Age was related to both estimates of quality of life, whereas duration of sick leave was unrelated to both. General quality of life and satisfaction with life domains produced different results. Outcome studies should apply more than one operationalization of quality of life and self-factors should be considered as important determinants of quality of life. Duration of the condition needs to be acknowledged as well when interpreting levels of quality of life, although the current study could not present any clear-cut findings in this respect.

Growth and mortality of age-0 northern squawfish, Ptychocheilus oregonensis, rearing in shoreline habitats of the Columbia River Reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barfoot, C.A.; Gadomski, D.M.; Wertheimer, R.H.

1999-01-01

We investigated growth and mortality of age-0 northern squawfish during early rearing in shallow shoreline habitats. Larvae and juveniles (n=22914) were collected by weekly seining at three sample sites in the upper John Day Reservoir, Columbia River, during June through early September 1994–1996. Using a length-based ageing method, it was estimated that the exponential growth rate (G) for a common growth stanza (10–28 mm standard length SL) was significantly higher in 1994 (G=0.047) than in 1996 (G=0.037). Growth rate in 1995 could not be estimated, but was probably intermediate between 1994 and 1996 based on mean standard lengths of fish collected at the end of each sampling season (46.3, 40.0, and 32.0 mm SL in 1994, 1995, and 1996, respectively). For many fish species, variations in early growth can influence survival through size-selective mortality processes. Consistent with this possibility, our estimates of instantaneous mortality rates (Z) demonstrated that larvae and juveniles had significantly higher mortality in 1996 than in 1994 (Z=0.103 in 1994, versus Z=0.138 in 1996). Enhanced growth and lower mortality in 1994 were associated with a number of interrelated environmental conditions – comparatively low flows and turbidities, abundant instream vegetative cover, and high near-shore water temperatures.

Evaluating sickness absence duration by musculoskeletal and mental health issues: a retrospective cohort study of Scottish healthcare workers.

PubMed

Demou, Evangelia; Smith, Shanley; Bhaskar, Abita; Mackay, Daniel F; Brown, Judith; Hunt, Kate; Vargas-Prada, Sergio; Macdonald, Ewan B

2018-01-26

Sickness absence (SA) among healthcare workers is associated with occupational and non-occupational risk factors and impacts employee health, healthcare delivery and patient health. At the same time, healthcare is one of the employment sectors with the highest rates of work-related ill health in the UK. Musculoskeletal (MSK) and mental health (MH) issues are leading causes of SA, but there is a lack of research on how certain MSK/MH conditions impact on SA duration. The study aim is to determine differences in SA duration by MH and MSK disorders in healthcare employees. Survival analyses were used to estimate SA duration due to MSK and MH problems over 6 years, and Cox's proportional hazards models to determine the HRs of returning to work, using a bespoke Scottish health board database with over 53 000 SA events. SA duration and time to return-to-work (RTW) were estimated for employees by age, gender, job and health conditions. MSK and MH conditions accounted for 27% and 6% of all SA events and 23.7% and 19.5% of all days lost, respectively. Average SA duration was 43.5 days for MSK and 53.9 days for MH conditions. For MSK conditions, employees with low back or neck pain had the fastest RTW (median P 50 : 7 days), whereas employees absent due to depression took the longest (P 50 : 54 days). The most influential sociodemographic variables affecting RTW were age, gender and job category. Using a unique and rich database, we found significant differences in SA duration by presenting condition in healthcare workers. MH conditions, and depression specifically, accounted for the most working days' absence. Significant variations in duration were also observed for MSK conditions. Our findings can inform public health practitioners and healthcare managers of the most significant factors impacting MSK-related and MH-related SA to develop and implement tailored and targeted workplace interventions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

AN AGE-PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS OF CANCER INCIDENCE AMONG THE OLDEST OLD

PubMed Central

Hanson, Heidi A.; Smith, Ken R.; Stroup, Antoinette M.; Harrell, C. Janna

2014-01-01

Separating and understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on major health conditions in the population over eighty-five, the oldest-old, will lead to better population projections of morbidity and mortality. We used age-period-cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillence Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence for ages 65–99 from 1973–2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85–89 age group followed by declines for ages 90–99 when not confounded by the distinct influence of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100. PMID:25396304

[Forensic age determination in living individuals at the Institute of Legal Medicine in Berlin (Charité): analysis of the expert reports from 2001 to 2007].

PubMed

Schmidt, Sven; Knüfermann, Raidun; Tsokos, Michael; Schmeling, Andreas

2009-01-01

The analysis included the age reports provided by the Institute of Legal Medicine in Berlin (Charité) in the period from 2001 to 2007. A total of 416 age estimations were carried out, 289 in criminal and 127 in civil proceedings. 357 of the examined individuals were male, 59 were female. The vast majority of the individuals came from Vietnam. In 112 cases, there were no deviations between the indicated age and the estimated minimum age, while the actual age of the individuals was partly clearly above the estimated age. In 300 cases, there were discrepancies of up to 11 years between the indicated age and the estimated age. The study demonstrates that forensic age estimation in living individuals can make an important contribution to legal certainty.

The relationship of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions to the southern California wildfires of 2003.

PubMed

Delfino, R J; Brummel, S; Wu, J; Stern, H; Ostro, B; Lipsett, M; Winer, A; Street, D H; Zhang, L; Tjoa, T; Gillen, D L

2009-03-01

There is limited information on the public health impact of wildfires. The relationship of cardiorespiratory hospital admissions (n = 40 856) to wildfire-related particulate matter (PM(2.5)) during catastrophic wildfires in southern California in October 2003 was evaluated. Zip code level PM(2.5) concentrations were estimated using spatial interpolations from measured PM(2.5), light extinction, meteorological conditions, and smoke information from MODIS satellite images at 250 m resolution. Generalised estimating equations for Poisson data were used to assess the relationship between daily admissions and PM(2.5), adjusted for weather, fungal spores (associated with asthma), weekend, zip code-level population and sociodemographics. Associations of 2-day average PM(2.5) with respiratory admissions were stronger during than before or after the fires. Average increases of 70 microg/m(3) PM(2.5) during heavy smoke conditions compared with PM(2.5) in the pre-wildfire period were associated with 34% increases in asthma admissions. The strongest wildfire-related PM(2.5) associations were for people ages 65-99 years (10.1% increase per 10 microg/m(3) PM(2.5), 95% CI 3.0% to 17.8%) and ages 0-4 years (8.3%, 95% CI 2.2% to 14.9%) followed by ages 20-64 years (4.1%, 95% CI -0.5% to 9.0%). There were no PM(2.5)-asthma associations in children ages 5-18 years, although their admission rates significantly increased after the fires. Per 10 microg/m(3) wildfire-related PM(2.5), acute bronchitis admissions across all ages increased by 9.6% (95% CI 1.8% to 17.9%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions for ages 20-64 years by 6.9% (95% CI 0.9% to 13.1%), and pneumonia admissions for ages 5-18 years by 6.4% (95% CI -1.0% to 14.2%). Acute bronchitis and pneumonia admissions also increased after the fires. There was limited evidence of a small impact of wildfire-related PM(2.5) on cardiovascular admissions. Wildfire-related PM(2.5) led to increased respiratory hospital admissions, especially asthma, suggesting that better preventive measures are required to reduce morbidity among vulnerable populations.

Does childhood schooling affect old age memory or mental status? Using state schooling laws as natural experiments.

PubMed

Glymour, M M; Kawachi, I; Jencks, C S; Berkman, L F

2008-06-01

The association between schooling and old age cognitive outcomes such as memory disorders is well documented but, because of the threat of reverse causation, controversy persists over whether education affects old age cognition. Changes in state compulsory schooling laws (CSL) are treated as natural experiments (instruments) for estimating the effect of education on memory and mental status among the elderly. Changes in CSL predict changes in average years of schooling completed by children who are affected by the new laws. These educational differences are presumably independent of innate individual characteristics such as IQ. CSL-induced changes in education were used to obtain instrumental variable (IV) estimates of education's effect on memory (n = 10,694) and mental status (n = 9751) for white, non-Hispanic US-born Health and Retirement Survey participants born between 1900 and 1947 who did not attend college. After adjustment for sex, birth year, state of birth and state characteristics, IV estimates of education's effect on memory were large and statistically significant. IV estimates for mental status had very wide confidence intervals, so it was not possible to draw meaningful conclusions about the effect of education on this outcome. Increases in mandatory schooling lead to improvements in performance on memory tests many decades after school completion. These analyses condition on individual states, so differences in memory outcomes associated with CSL changes cannot be attributed to differences between states. Although unmeasured state characteristics that changed contemporaneously with CSL might account for these results, unobserved genetic variation is unlikely to do so.

Does childhood schooling affect old age memory or mental status? Using state schooling laws as natural experiments

PubMed Central

Glymour, M M; Kawachi, I; Jencks, C S; Berkman, L F

2009-01-01

Background The association between schooling and old age cognitive outcomes such as memory disorders is well documented but, because of the threat of reverse causation, controversy persists over whether education affects old age cognition. Changes in state compulsory schooling laws (CSL) are treated as natural experiments (instruments) for estimating the effect of education on memory and mental status among the elderly. Changes in CSL predict changes in average years of schooling completed by children who are affected by the new laws. These educational differences are presumably independent of innate individual characteristics such as IQ. Methods CSL-induced changes in education were used to obtain instrumental variable (IV) estimates of education’s effect on memory (n = 10 694) and mental status (n = 9751) for white, non-Hispanic US-born Health and Retirement Survey participants born between 1900 and 1947 who did not attend college. Results After adjustment for sex, birth year, state of birth and state characteristics, IV estimates of education’s effect on memory were large and statistically significant. IV estimates for mental status had very wide confidence intervals, so it was not possible to draw meaningful conclusions about the effect of education on this outcome. Conclusions Increases in mandatory schooling lead to improvements in performance on memory tests many decades after school completion. These analyses condition on individual states, so differences in memory outcomes associated with CSL changes cannot be attributed to differences between states. Although unmeasured state characteristics that changed contemporaneously with CSL might account for these results, unobserved genetic variation is unlikely to do so. PMID:18477752

The Met Needs for Pediatric Surgical Conditions in Sierra Leone: Estimating the Gap.

PubMed

Burgos, Carmen Mesas; Bolkan, Håkon Angell; Bash-Taqi, Donald; Hagander, Lars; Von Screeb, Johan

2018-03-01

In low- and middle-income countries, there is a gap between the need for surgery and its equitable provision, and a lack of proxy indicators to estimate this gap. Sierra Leone is a West African country with close to three million children. It is unknown to what extent the surgical needs of these children are met. To describe a nationwide provision of pediatric surgical procedures and to assess pediatric hernia repair as a proxy indicator for the shortage of surgical care in the pediatric population in Sierra Leone. We analyzed results from a nationwide facility survey in Sierra Leone that collected data on surgical procedures from operation and anesthesia logbooks in all facilities performing surgery. We included data on all patients under the age of 16 years undergoing surgery. Primary outcomes were rate and volume of surgical procedures. We calculated the expected number of inguinal hernia in children and estimated the unmet need for hernia repair. In 2012, a total of 2381 pediatric surgical procedures were performed in Sierra Leone. The rate of pediatric surgical procedures was 84 per 100,000 children 0-15 years of age. The most common pediatric surgical procedure was hernia repair (18%), corresponding to a rate of 16 per 100,000 children 0-15 years of age. The estimated unmet need for inguinal hernia repair was 88%. The rate of pediatric surgery in Sierra Leone was very low, and inguinal hernia was the single most common procedure noted among children in Sierra Leone.

Age and stratigraphic context of Pliopithecus and associated fauna from Miocene sedimentary strata at Damiao, Inner Mongolia, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaakinen, Anu; Abdul Aziz, Hayfaa; Passey, Benjamin H.; Zhang, Zhaoqun; Liu, Liping; Salminen, Johanna; Wang, Lihua; Krijgsman, Wout; Fortelius, Mikael

2015-03-01

Since the discovery of mammalian fossils in Central Inner Mongolia in the beginning of the 20th century, this area has produced a rich and diverse record of Miocene faunas. Nevertheless, the stratigraphy has remained poorly constrained owing to scattered faunal horizons and lack of continuous vertical exposures. Consequently, most age estimates of these Miocene sites are based on paleontological evidence alone, with very few sites having been dated independently. Our field investigations in Damiao, in Siziwang Qi, Inner Mongolia have yielded more than 30 new fossiliferous localities from three horizons, including a pliopithecid fauna. This study presents the litho-, bio- and magnetostratigraphy of the Damiao area and provides age estimates for the three fossil-bearing horizons. The sedimentary sequence is interpreted as the remains of a fluvial system comprising channels, subaerially exposed floodplains and floodbasin environments. The two local stratigraphic sections measured and sampled for paleomagnetic analysis coincide with species-rich vertebrate fossil localities. The paleomagnetic results and faunal evidence suggest a correlation of lowermost fossil horizon (DM16) producing relatively rich small mammal assemblage to the early Miocene chron C6Ar or C6An.1r, roughly in 20-21 Ma age range. The pliopithecid locality level (DM01) represents latest middle Miocene and has an age estimate of about 12.1 Ma while the youngest localities (DM02) with cervoids and abundant and diverse small mammal fauna represents the earliest late Miocene with an age estimate of about 11.6 Ma. Our magnetostratigraphic results confirm that the Damiao strata constitute one of the best sequences in Inner Mongolia with early, middle and late Miocene mammalian faunas in stratigraphic superposition. The results also provide constraints on the paleoenvironmental evolution and bioevents of the area. The occurrence of pliopithecid primates in the middle Miocene of Inner Mongolia suggests humid habitats and challenges the scenarios suggesting arid and highly seasonal conditions for Central Asia since Early Miocene. The presence of pliopithecids may also bear witness to locally humid environments and greater habitat heterogeneity than previously known in central Inner Mongolia.

Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

2009-01-01

Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

[Sub-maximal aerobic capacity and quality of life of patients with rheumatoid arthritis].

PubMed

Lataoui, S; Belghali, S; Zeglaoui, H; Bouajina, E; Ben Saad, H

2017-01-01

Studies about sub-maximal aerobic capacity of patients with rheumatoid arthritis are scarce. To assess the sub-maximal aerobic capacity of these patients through the 6-min walk test, estimated age of the "muscular and cardiorespiratory" chain. Thirty-seven consecutive patients (aged 20 to 60 years) with newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis will be included. Non-inclusion criteria will be: use of drugs (e.g.; methotrexate, beta-blockers), orthopaedic or rheumatologic conditions (other than rheumatoid arthritis) that may alter walking ability and recent infections. Exclusion criteria will be: 6-min walking test contra-indications and imperfect performance of the required lung function and walking maneuvers. Signs of walking intolerance will be: test interruption, distance ≤lower limit of normal, dyspnea score ≥5/10 (visual analogue scale) at the end of the test, haemoglobin oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) drop ≥5%, cardiac frequency at the end of the test ≤60% of maximum predicted. An estimated "muscular and cardiorespiratory chain" age higher than the chronological one will be considered as a sign of accelerated ageing. A high percentage of patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis would show evidences of walking limitation and accelerated "muscular and cardiorespiratory chain" ageing. There would be a significant correlation between the walking test and clinical, biological, radiological and pulmonary function data and the patients' quality-of-life status. Copyright © 2016 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

PubMed

Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

Estimating ages of Utah chubs by use of pectoral fin rays, otoliths, and scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Kayla M; Beard, Zachary S.; Flinders, John M.; Quist, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Utah chub Gila atraria is native to the Upper Snake River system in Wyoming and Idaho and to the Lake Bonneville Basin in Utah and southeastern Idaho. However, the Utah chub has been introduced into many other waterbodies in the western United States, where it competes with ecologically and economically important species. The objectives of this study were to evaluate between-reader precision and reader confidence in age estimates obtained from pectoral fin rays, lapilli (otoliths), asterisci (otoliths), and scales for Utah chubs collected from Henrys Lake, Idaho. Lapilli have been previously shown to provide accurate age estimates for Utah chubs; therefore, we sought to compare age estimates from fin rays, asterisci, and scales to those from lapilli. The between-reader coefficient of variation (CV) in age estimates was lowest and the percent of exact reader agreement (PA-0) was highest for pectoral fin rays (CV = 4.7, PA-0 = 74%), followed by scales (CV = 10.3, PA-0 = 52.3%), lapilli (CV = 11.6, PA-0 = 48.2%), and asterisci (CV = 13.0, PA-0 = 41.7%). Consensus age estimates from pectoral fin rays showed high concordance with consensus age estimates from lapilli. Our results indicate that pectoral fin rays provide the most precise age estimates for Utah chub. Pectoral fin rays are easily collected and processed and also provide age estimates without requiring fish sacrifice.

Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of diabetes among elderly persons in an urban slum of delhi.

PubMed

Singh, Arvind Kumar; Mani, Kalaivani; Krishnan, Anand; Aggarwal, Praveen; Gupta, Sanjeev Kumar

2012-10-01

The increasing proportion of elderly persons is contributing to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes. The residents of urban slums are more vulnerable due to poverty and lack of access to health care. To estimate the prevalence of diabetes in elderly persons in an urban slum and to assess their awareness, treatment and control of this condition. All persons aged 60 years and above, residing in an urban slum of Delhi, were included in this cross-sectional community- based study. Data were collected on sociodemographic variables. The participants' awareness and treatment of diabetes was recorded. Their fasting blood sugar was estimated using an automated glucometer. Diabetes was diagnosed if fasting blood glucose was ≥126 mg/dL, or if the participant was taking treatment for diabetes. Impaired fasting blood glucose was diagnosed if fasting blood glucose was 110-125 mg/dL. Among the 474 participants studied, the prevalence of diabetes was estimated to be 18.8% (95% CI 15.3-21.5). It decreased with increasing age, and was higher among women. The prevalence of impaired fasting blood glucose was 19.8% (95% CI 16.3-23.7). It was higher among women. One-third of the diabetic participants were aware of their condition; two-thirds of these were on treatment and three-fourths of those on treatment had controlled fasting blood sugar level. The awareness, treatment and control were better among women. Diabetes is common among elderly persons in urban slums. Its magnitude and low awareness warrant effective public health interventions for their treatment and control.

Consequences of Secondary Calibrations on Divergence Time Estimates.

PubMed

Schenk, John J

2016-01-01

Secondary calibrations (calibrations based on the results of previous molecular dating studies) are commonly applied in divergence time analyses in groups that lack fossil data; however, the consequences of applying secondary calibrations in a relaxed-clock approach are not fully understood. I tested whether applying the posterior estimate from a primary study as a prior distribution in a secondary study results in consistent age and uncertainty estimates. I compared age estimates from simulations with 100 randomly replicated secondary trees. On average, the 95% credible intervals of node ages for secondary estimates were significantly younger and narrower than primary estimates. The primary and secondary age estimates were significantly different in 97% of the replicates after Bonferroni corrections. Greater error in magnitude was associated with deeper than shallower nodes, but the opposite was found when standardized by median node age, and a significant positive relationship was determined between the number of tips/age of secondary trees and the total amount of error. When two secondary calibrated nodes were analyzed, estimates remained significantly different, and although the minimum and median estimates were associated with less error, maximum age estimates and credible interval widths had greater error. The shape of the prior also influenced error, in which applying a normal, rather than uniform, prior distribution resulted in greater error. Secondary calibrations, in summary, lead to a false impression of precision and the distribution of age estimates shift away from those that would be inferred by the primary analysis. These results suggest that secondary calibrations should not be applied as the only source of calibration in divergence time analyses that test time-dependent hypotheses until the additional error associated with secondary calibrations is more properly modeled to take into account increased uncertainty in age estimates.

Using multi-year national survey cohorts for period estimates: an application of weighted discrete Poisson regression for assessing annual national mortality in US adults with and without diabetes, 2000-2006.

PubMed

Cheng, Yiling J; Gregg, Edward W; Rolka, Deborah B; Thompson, Theodore J

2016-12-15

Monitoring national mortality among persons with a disease is important to guide and evaluate progress in disease control and prevention. However, a method to estimate nationally representative annual mortality among persons with and without diabetes in the United States does not currently exist. The aim of this study is to demonstrate use of weighted discrete Poisson regression on national survey mortality follow-up data to estimate annual mortality rates among adults with diabetes. To estimate mortality among US adults with diabetes, we applied a weighted discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment to national survey data. Adult participants aged 18 or older with and without diabetes in the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2004 were followed up through 2006 for mortality status. We estimated mortality among all US adults, and by self-reported diabetes status at baseline. The time-varying covariates used were age and calendar year. Mortality among all US adults was validated using direct estimates from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). Using our approach, annual all-cause mortality among all US adults ranged from 8.8 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0, 9.6) in year 2000 to 7.9 (95% CI: 7.6, 8.3) in year 2006. By comparison, the NVSS estimates ranged from 8.6 to 7.9 (correlation = 0.94). All-cause mortality among persons with diabetes decreased from 35.7 (95% CI: 28.4, 42.9) in 2000 to 31.8 (95% CI: 28.5, 35.1) in 2006. After adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, persons with diabetes had 2.1 (95% CI: 2.01, 2.26) times the risk of death of those without diabetes. Period-specific national mortality can be estimated for people with and without a chronic condition using national surveys with mortality follow-up and a discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment.

Severe Pain in Veterans: The Effect of Age and Sex, and Comparisons With the General Population.

PubMed

Nahin, Richard L

2017-03-01

This study provides national prevalence estimates of US military veterans with severe pain, and compares veterans with nonveterans of similar age and sex. Data used are from the 2010 to 2014 National Health Interview Survey on 67,696 adults who completed the Adult Functioning and Disability Supplement. Participants with severe pain were identified using a validated pain severity coding system imbedded in the National Health Interview Survey Adult Functioning and Disability Supplement. It was estimated that 65.5% of US military veterans reported pain in the previous 3 months, with 9.1% classified as having severe pain. Compared with veterans, fewer nonveterans reported any pain (56.4%) or severe pain (6.4%). Whereas veterans aged 18 to 39 years had significantly higher prevalence rates for severe pain (7.8%) than did similar-aged nonveterans (3.2%), veterans age 70 years or older were less likely to report severe pain (7.1%) than nonveterans (9.6%). Male veterans (9.0%) were more likely to report severe pain than male nonveterans (4.7%); however, no statistically significant difference was seen between the 2 female groups. The prevalence of severe pain was significantly higher in veterans with back pain (21.6%), jaw pain (37.5%), severe headaches or migraine (26.4%), and neck pain (27.7%) than in nonveterans with these conditions (respectively: 16.7%, 22.9%, 15.9%, and 21.4%). Although veterans (43.6%) were more likely than nonveterans (31.5%) to have joint pain, no difference was seen in the prevalence of severe pain associated with this condition. Prevalence of severe pain, defined as that which occurs "most days" or "every day" and bothers the individual "a lot," is strikingly more common in veterans than in members of the general population, particularly in veterans who served during recent conflicts. Additional assistance may be necessary to help veterans cope with their pain. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Severe Pain in Veterans: The Impact of Age and Sex, and Comparisons to the General Population

PubMed Central

Nahin, Richard L.

2016-01-01

This study provides national prevalence estimates of US military Veterans with severe pain, and compares Veterans to nonveterans of similar age and sex. Data used are from the 2010–2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) on 67,696 adults who completed the Adult Functioning and Disability (AFD) Supplement. Participants with severe pain were identified using a validated pain severity coding system imbedded in the NHIS AFD. It was estimated that 65.5% of US military Veterans reported pain in the previous 3 months, with 9.1% classified as having severe pain. In comparison to Veterans, fewer nonveterans reported any pain (56.4%) or severe pain (6.4%). While Veterans aged 18–39 had significantly higher prevalence rates for severe pain (7.8%) than did similar-aged nonveterans (3.2%), Veterans age 70 or older were less likely to report severe pain (7.1%) than nonveterans (9.6%). Male Veterans (9.0%) were more likely to report severe pain than male nonveterans (4.7%); however, no statistically significant difference was seen between the two female groups. The prevalence of severe pain was significantly higher in Veterans with back pain (21.6%), jaw pain (37.5%), severe headaches or migraine (26.4%), and neck pain (27.7%) than in nonveterans with these conditions (respectively: 16.7%; 22.9%; 15.9%; and 21.4%). Although Veterans (43.6%) were more likely than nonveterans (31.5%) to have joint pain, no difference was seen in the prevalence of severe pain associated with this condition. Perspective Prevalence of severe pain, defined as that which occurs “most days” or “every day” and bothers the individual “a lot”, is strikingly more common in Veterans than in members of the general population, particularly in Veterans who served during recent conflicts. Additional assistance may be necessary to help Veterans cope with their pain. PMID:27884688

Investigating environmental determinants of injury and trauma in the Canadian north.

PubMed

Durkalec, Agata; Furgal, Chris; Skinner, Mark W; Sheldon, Tom

2014-01-28

Unintentional injury and trauma rates are disproportionately high in Inuit regions, and environmental changes are predicted to exacerbate injury rates. However, there is a major gap in our understanding of the risk factors contributing to land-based injury and trauma in the Arctic. We investigated the role of environmental and other factors in search and rescue (SAR) incidents in a remote Inuit community in northern Canada using a collaborative mixed methods approach. We analyzed SAR records from 1995 to 2010 and conducted key consultant interviews in 2010 and 2011. Data showed an estimated annual SAR incidence rate of 19 individuals per 1,000. Weather and ice conditions were the most frequent contributing factor for cases. In contrast with other studies, intoxication was the least common factor associated with SAR incidents. The incidence rate was six times higher for males than females, while land-users aged 26-35 had the highest incidence rate among age groups. Thirty-four percent of individuals sustained physical health impacts. Results demonstrate that environmental conditions are critical factors contributing to physical health risk in Inuit communities, particularly related to travel on sea ice during winter. Age and gender are important risk factors. This knowledge is vital for informing management of land-based physical health risk given rapidly changing environmental conditions in the Arctic.

Visual feature binding in younger and older adults: encoding and suffix interference effects.

PubMed

Brown, Louise A; Niven, Elaine H; Logie, Robert H; Rhodes, Stephen; Allen, Richard J

2017-02-01

Three experiments investigated younger (18-25 yrs) and older (70-88 yrs) adults' temporary memory for colour-shape combinations (binding). We focused upon estimating the magnitude of the binding cost for each age group across encoding time (Experiment 1; 900/1500 ms), presentation format (Experiment 2; simultaneous/sequential), and interference (Experiment 3; control/suffix) conditions. In Experiment 1, encoding time did not differentially influence binding in the two age groups. In Experiment 2, younger adults exhibited poorer binding performance with sequential relative to simultaneous presentation, and serial position analyses highlighted a particular age-related difficulty remembering the middle item of a series (for all memory conditions). Experiments 1-3 demonstrated small to medium binding effect sizes in older adults across all encoding conditions, with binding less accurate than shape memory. However, younger adults also displayed negative effects of binding (small to large) in two of the experiments. Even when older adults exhibited a greater suffix interference effect in Experiment 3, this was for all memory types, not just binding. We therefore conclude that there is no consistent evidence for a visual binding deficit in healthy older adults. This relative preservation contrasts with the specific and substantial deficits in visual feature binding found in several recent studies of Alzheimer's disease.

Twelve years of chiari-like malformation and syringomyelia scanning in Cavalier King Charles Spaniels in the Netherlands: Towards a more precise phenotype

PubMed Central

Van Bruggen, Leonie W. L.; Eggelmeijer, Wieteke; Noorman, Erik; Jacques, Arnold; Buys, Nadine; Janssens, Steven

2017-01-01

Chiari-like malformation (CM), syringomyelia (SM) and middle ear effusion (also called PSOM) are three conditions that frequently occur in Cavalier King Charles Spaniels (CKCS). Both CM and SM are currently screened in the Netherlands prior to breeding and are graded according to the British Veterinary Association’s Kennel Club (BVA/KC) scheme. This study evaluated the prevalence and estimated genetic parameter of CM, SM and middle ear effusion from 12 years of screening results. For SM, the classical method using the BVA/KC scheme, was compared with exact measuring of the central canal dilation. For CM, the BVA/KC scheme was compared with a more detailed scheme. Next to this the presence of microchip artifacts was assessed. 1249 screening of 1020 dogs were re-evaluated. Results indicated the presence of CM in all dogs, suggesting it has become a breed-specific characteristic. And although different grades of CM were observed, the condition did not deteriorate over time. SM was present in 39% of the dogs and a clear age effect was demonstrated, with SM increasing with age. This emphasizes the importance of screening at appropriate age, since SM can worsen with increasing age. One alternative is to promote repeated measures. The presence of middle ear effusion in this study was 19%–21% for dogs younger than 3 years, and 32%–38% for dogs older than 3 years. In as much as 60%, microchip artifacts were noticed, leading to the recommendation to place microchips in another location in breeds that are susceptible to developing SM. Finally, this study estimated the heritability of CM in this population, due to the lack of phenotypic variance, to be very low at 0.02–0.03. The heritability for SM central canal dilatation to be 0.30, compared to 0.13 for the classical BVA/KC method, using a model including the age effect and the combined effect of veterinary clinic and year of the evaluation. Genetic correlations were rather small, ranging from 0.16–0.33. As a conclusion, screening for SM and CM in the entire population should be maintained, and a selection scheme against SM should be based on estimated breeding values for the exact measurement of the central canal dilatation. PMID:28934242

Occurrence and impact of xerostomia among dentate adult New Zealanders: findings from a national survey.

PubMed

Benn, A M L; Broadbent, J M; Thomson, W M

2015-09-01

We investigated the prevalence, associations and impact of xerostomia in a nationally representative sample of dentate adult community-dwelling New Zealanders aged 18 years and over. The data were collected from a representative sample of 2209 adults, as part of the 2009 New Zealand Oral Health Survey (NZOHS). Data were collected using face-to-face interviews, dental examinations and the short-form Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14). Data analysis used appropriate weighting for all procedures to account for the complex survey design. The overall prevalence estimate for xerostomia was 13.1% (95% CI 11.7, 14.7), and it was more common among females. Those in the 75+  and 25-34 age groups were more likely (odds ratios of 6.5 and 4.0, respectively) to have xerostomia. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and clinical oral disease, the mean OHIP-14 score among xerostomics was 50% higher than among those who did not have the condition. These data indicate that xerostomia is a common condition which can affect quality of life among people of all ages. © 2015 Australian Dental Association.

Prediction of risk of fracture in the tibia due to altered bone mineral density distribution resulting from disuse: a finite element study.

PubMed

Gislason, Magnus K; Coupaud, Sylvie; Sasagawa, Keisuke; Tanabe, Yuji; Purcell, Mariel; Allan, David B; Tanner, K Elizabeth

2014-02-01

The disuse-related bone loss that results from immobilisation following injury shares characteristics with osteoporosis in post-menopausal women and the aged, with decreases in bone mineral density leading to weakening of the bone and increased risk of fracture. The aim of this study was to use the finite element method to: (i) calculate the mechanical response of the tibia under mechanical load and (ii) estimate of the risk of fracture; comparing between two groups, an able-bodied group and spinal cord injury patients group suffering from varying degrees of bone loss. The tibiae of eight male subjects with chronic spinal cord injury and those of four able-bodied age-matched controls were scanned using multi-slice peripheral quantitative computed tomography. Images were used to develop full three-dimensional models of the tibiae in Mimics (Materialise) and exported into Abaqus (Simulia) for calculation of stress distribution and fracture risk in response to specified loading conditions - compression, bending and torsion. The percentage of elements that exceeded a calculated value of the ultimate stress provided an estimate of the risk of fracture for each subject, which differed between spinal cord injury subjects and their controls. The differences in bone mineral density distribution along the tibia in different subjects resulted in different regions of the bone being at high risk of fracture under set loading conditions, illustrating the benefit of creating individual material distribution models. A predictive tool can be developed based on these models, to enable clinicians to estimate the amount of loading that can be safely allowed onto the skeletal frame of individual patients who suffer from extensive musculoskeletal degeneration (including spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis and the ageing population). The ultimate aim is to reduce fracture occurrence in these vulnerable groups.

Intracranial haemorrhage and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors

PubMed Central

de Abajo, Francisco J; Jick, Hershel; Derby, Laura; Jick, Susan; Schmitz, Stephen

2000-01-01

Aims In the past few years an increasing number of bleeding disorders have been reported in association with the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), including serious cases of intracranial haemorrhage, raising concerns about the safety of this class of drugs. The present study was performed to test the hypothesis of an increased risk of intracranial haemorrhage associated with the use of SSRIs. Methods We carried out a case-control study nested in a cohort of antidepressants users with the UK-based General Practice Research Database (GPRD) as the primary source of information. The study cohort encompassed subjects aged between 18 and 79 years who received a first-time prescription for any antidepressant from January, 1990 to October, 1997. Patients with presenting conditions or treatments that could be associated with an increased risk of intracranial haemorrhage were excluded from the cohort. Patients were followed-up until the occurrence of an idiopathic intracranial haemorrhage. Up to four controls per case, matched on age, sex, calendar time and practice were randomly selected from the study cohort. We estimated adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of intracranial haemorrhage with current use of SSRIs and other antidepressants as compared with nonuse using conditional logistic regression. Results We identified 65 cases of idiopathic intracranial haemorrhage and 254 matched controls. Current exposure to SSRIs was ascertained in 7 cases (10.8%) and 24 controls (9.7%) resulting in an adjusted OR (95%CI) of 0.8 (0.3,2.3). The estimate for ‘other antidepressants’ was 0.7 (0.3,1.6). The effect measures were not modified by gender or age. No effect related to dose or treatment duration was detected. The risk estimates did not change according to the location of bleeding (intracerebral or subarachnoid). Conclusions Our results are not compatible with a major increased risk of intracranial haemorrhage among users of SSRIs or other antidepressants at large. However, smaller but still relevant increased risks cannot be ruled out. PMID:10886117

Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015.

PubMed

Polis, Chelsea B; Mhango, Chisale; Philbin, Jesse; Chimwaza, Wanangwa; Chipeta, Effie; Msusa, Ausbert

2017-01-01

In Malawi, abortion is legal only if performed to save a woman's life; other attempts to procure an abortion are punishable by 7-14 years imprisonment. Most induced abortions in Malawi are performed under unsafe conditions, contributing to Malawi's high maternal mortality ratio. Malawians are currently debating whether to provide additional exceptions under which an abortion may be legally obtained. An estimated 67,300 induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2009 (equivalent to 23 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44), but changes since 2009, including dramatic increases in contraceptive prevalence, may have impacted abortion rates. We conducted a nationally representative survey of health facilities to estimate the number of cases of post-abortion care, as well as a survey of knowledgeable informants to estimate the probability of needing and obtaining post-abortion care following induced abortion. These data were combined with national population and fertility data to determine current estimates of induced abortion and unintended pregnancy in Malawi using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology. We estimate that approximately 141,044 (95% CI: 121,161-160,928) induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2015, translating to a national rate of 38 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49 (95% CI: 32 to 43); which varied by geographical zone (range: 28-61). We estimate that 53% of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended, and that 30% of unintended pregnancies end in abortion. Given the challenges of estimating induced abortion, and the assumptions required for calculation, results should be viewed as approximate estimates, rather than exact measures. The estimated abortion rate in 2015 is higher than in 2009 (potentially due to methodological differences), but similar to recent estimates from nearby countries including Tanzania (36), Uganda (39), and regional estimates in Eastern and Southern Africa (34-35). Over half of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended. Our findings should inform ongoing efforts to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality and to improve public health in Malawi.

Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015

PubMed Central

Mhango, Chisale; Philbin, Jesse; Chimwaza, Wanangwa; Chipeta, Effie; Msusa, Ausbert

2017-01-01

Background In Malawi, abortion is legal only if performed to save a woman’s life; other attempts to procure an abortion are punishable by 7–14 years imprisonment. Most induced abortions in Malawi are performed under unsafe conditions, contributing to Malawi’s high maternal mortality ratio. Malawians are currently debating whether to provide additional exceptions under which an abortion may be legally obtained. An estimated 67,300 induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2009 (equivalent to 23 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44), but changes since 2009, including dramatic increases in contraceptive prevalence, may have impacted abortion rates. Methods We conducted a nationally representative survey of health facilities to estimate the number of cases of post-abortion care, as well as a survey of knowledgeable informants to estimate the probability of needing and obtaining post-abortion care following induced abortion. These data were combined with national population and fertility data to determine current estimates of induced abortion and unintended pregnancy in Malawi using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology. Results We estimate that approximately 141,044 (95% CI: 121,161–160,928) induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2015, translating to a national rate of 38 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–49 (95% CI: 32 to 43); which varied by geographical zone (range: 28–61). We estimate that 53% of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended, and that 30% of unintended pregnancies end in abortion. Given the challenges of estimating induced abortion, and the assumptions required for calculation, results should be viewed as approximate estimates, rather than exact measures. Conclusions The estimated abortion rate in 2015 is higher than in 2009 (potentially due to methodological differences), but similar to recent estimates from nearby countries including Tanzania (36), Uganda (39), and regional estimates in Eastern and Southern Africa (34–35). Over half of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended. Our findings should inform ongoing efforts to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality and to improve public health in Malawi. PMID:28369114

Estimating regional centile curves from mixed data sources and countries.

PubMed

van Buuren, Stef; Hayes, Daniel J; Stasinopoulos, D Mikis; Rigby, Robert A; ter Kuile, Feiko O; Terlouw, Dianne J

2009-10-15

Regional or national growth distributions can provide vital information on the health status of populations. In most resource poor countries, however, the required anthropometric data from purpose-designed growth surveys are not readily available. We propose a practical method for estimating regional (multi-country) age-conditional weight distributions based on existing survey data from different countries. We developed a two-step method by which one is able to model data with widely different age ranges and sample sizes. The method produces references both at the country level and at the regional (multi-country) level. The first step models country-specific centile curves by Box-Cox t and Box-Cox power exponential distributions implemented in generalized additive model for location, scale and shape through a common model. Individual countries may vary in location and spread. The second step defines the regional reference from a finite mixture of the country distributions, weighted by population size. To demonstrate the method we fitted the weight-for-age distribution of 12 countries in South East Asia and the Western Pacific, based on 273 270 observations. We modeled both the raw body weight and the corresponding Z score, and obtained a good fit between the final models and the original data for both solutions. We briefly discuss an application of the generated regional references to obtain appropriate, region specific, age-based dosing regimens of drugs used in the tropics. The method is an affordable and efficient strategy to estimate regional growth distributions where the standard costly alternatives are not an option. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment of child psychomotor development in population groups as a positive health indicator.

PubMed

Lejarraga, Horacio; Kelmansky, Diana M; Passcucci, María C; Masautis, Alicia; Insua, Iván; Lejarraga, Celina; Nunes, Fernando

2016-02-01

It is necessary to use health indicators describing the conditions of all individuals in a population, not just of those who have a disease or die. To introduce a method to collect population indicators of psychomotor development in children younger than 6 years old and show its results. Data were obtained from a cross-sectional assessment regarding compliance with 13 developmental milestones (selected from the national reference) conducted in 5465 children using five surveys administered by the Matanza-Riachuelo River Basin Authority in areas of this basin where a high proportion of families with unmet basic needs live. For each survey, a logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the median age at attainment of the 13 developmental milestones. A linear regression model between the estimated age at attainment of the 13 milestones was adjusted for each survey based on the corresponding age at attainment of the national reference. Based on this model, three indicators were defined: overall developmental quotient, developmental quotient at 4 years old, and developmental trend. Results from the five surveys ranged between 0.74 and 0.85, 0.88 and 0.81, and -0.15 and -0.26 for the overall developmental quotient, developmental quotient at 4 years old, and developmental trend, respectively. A distinct developmental delay and an increasing trend in delay with age were observed. Indicators are easily interpreted and related to social indicators (unmet basic needs, etc.). Collecting the information necessary to make estimations takes little time and can be applied to population groups, but not on an individual level. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Days Out of Role Due to Mental and Physical Conditions: Results from the Singapore Mental Health Study

PubMed Central

Abdin, Edimansyah; Ong, Clarissa; Chong, Siow Ann; Vaingankar, Janhavi Ajit; Subramaniam, Mythily

2016-01-01

Objective The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relative contributions of mental and physical conditions to days out of role among adults aged 18 years and above in Singapore. Methods The Singapore Mental Health Study was a cross-sectional epidemiological survey of a nationally representative sample of residents aged 18 years or older. Diagnosis of mental disorders was established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview; while chronic physical conditions were established using a checklist. Days out of role were assessed using a WHO Disability Assessment Schedule item. Multivariate regression analyses were used to estimate individual-level and societal-level effects of disorders. Results Overall, 8.7% of respondents reported at least one day out of role, with a mean of 5.8 days. The most disabling conditions at the individual level were cancer (118.9 additional days), cardiovascular diseases (93.5), and bipolar disorder (71.0). At the societal level, cardiovascular diseases contributed the highest population attributable risk proportion (45%), followed by cancer (39.3%), and hypertension (13.5%). Conclusions Mental and physical conditions are linked to significant losses in productivity for society as well as role disability for individuals, underscoring the need to enhance prevention and intervention efforts to increase overall productivity and improve individual functioning. PMID:26840741

Battery state-of-charge estimation using approximate least squares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unterrieder, C.; Zhang, C.; Lunglmayr, M.; Priewasser, R.; Marsili, S.; Huemer, M.

2015-03-01

In recent years, much effort has been spent to extend the runtime of battery-powered electronic applications. In order to improve the utilization of the available cell capacity, high precision estimation approaches for battery-specific parameters are needed. In this work, an approximate least squares estimation scheme is proposed for the estimation of the battery state-of-charge (SoC). The SoC is determined based on the prediction of the battery's electromotive force. The proposed approach allows for an improved re-initialization of the Coulomb counting (CC) based SoC estimation method. Experimental results for an implementation of the estimation scheme on a fuel gauge system on chip are illustrated. Implementation details and design guidelines are presented. The performance of the presented concept is evaluated for realistic operating conditions (temperature effects, aging, standby current, etc.). For the considered test case of a GSM/UMTS load current pattern of a mobile phone, the proposed method is able to re-initialize the CC-method with a high accuracy, while state-of-the-art methods fail to perform a re-initialization.

Adults with an epilepsy history fare significantly worse on positive mental and physical health than adults with other common chronic conditions-Estimates from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey and Patient Reported Outcome Measurement System (PROMIS) Global Health Scale.

PubMed

Kobau, Rosemarie; Cui, Wanjun; Zack, Matthew M

2017-07-01

Healthy People 2020, a national health promotion initiative, calls for increasing the proportion of U.S. adults who self-report good or better health. The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Global Health Scale (GHS) was identified as a reliable and valid set of items of self-reported physical and mental health to monitor these two domains across the decade. The purpose of this study was to examine the percentage of adults with an epilepsy history who met the Healthy People 2020 target for self-reported good or better health and to compare these percentages to adults with history of other common chronic conditions. Using the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, we compared and estimated the age-standardized prevalence of reporting good or better physical and mental health among adults with five selected chronic conditions including epilepsy, diabetes, heart disease, cancer, and hypertension. We examined response patterns for physical and mental health scale among adults with these five conditions. The percentages of adults with epilepsy who reported good or better physical health (52%) or mental health (54%) were significantly below the Healthy People 2020 target estimate of 80% for both outcomes. Significantly smaller percentages of adults with an epilepsy history reported good or better physical health than adults with heart disease, cancer, or hypertension. Significantly smaller percentages of adults with an epilepsy history reported good or better mental health than adults with all other four conditions. Health and social service providers can implement and enhance existing evidence-based clinical interventions and public health programs and strategies shown to improve outcomes in epilepsy. These estimates can be used to assess improvements in the Healthy People 2020 Health-Related Quality of Life and Well-Being Objective throughout the decade. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Control of hypertension with medication: a comparative analysis of national surveys in 20 countries.

PubMed

Ikeda, Nayu; Sapienza, David; Guerrero, Ramiro; Aekplakorn, Wichai; Naghavi, Mohsen; Mokdad, Ali H; Lozano, Rafael; Murray, Christopher J L; Lim, Stephen S

2014-01-01

To examine hypertension management across countries and over time using consistent and comparable methods. A systematic search identified nationally representative health examination surveys from 20 countries containing data from 1980 to 2011 on blood pressure measurements, the diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and its control with antihypertensive drugs. For each country, the prevalence of hypertension (i.e. systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg or antihypertensive use) and the proportion of hypertensive individuals whose condition was diagnosed, treated or controlled with medications (i.e. systolic pressure < 140 mmHg) were estimated. The age-standardized prevalence of hypertension varied between countries: for individuals aged 35 to 49 years, it ranged from around 12% in Bangladesh, Egypt and Thailand to around 30% in Armenia, Lesotho and Ukraine; for those aged 35 to 84 years, it ranged from 20% in Bangladesh to more than 40% in Germany, the Russian Federation and Turkey. The age-standardized percentage of hypertensive individuals whose condition was diagnosed, treated or controlled was highest in the United States of America: for those aged 35 to 49 years, it was 84%, 77% and 56%, respectively. Percentages were especially low in Albania, Armenia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. Although recent trends in prevalence differed in England, Japan and the United States, treatment coverage and hypertension control improved over time, particularly in England. Globally the proportion of hypertensive individuals whose condition is treated or controlled with medication remains low. Greater efforts are needed to improve hypertension control, which would reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases.

Composition and relative abundance of fish species in the lower White Salmon River, Washington, prior to the removal of Condit Dam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, M. Brady; Connolly, Patrick J.

2011-01-01

Information about the composition and relative abundance of fish species was collected by a rotary screw trap and backpack electrofishing in the lower White Salmon River, Washington. The information was collected downstream of Condit Dam, which is at river kilometer (rkm) 5.2, and is proposed for removal in October 2011. A rotary screw trap was installed in the White Salmon River at rkm 1.5 and operated from March through June during 2006–09. All captured fish were identified to species and enumerated. Daily subsets of fish were weighed, measured, and fin clipped for a genetic analysis by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.Fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were captured in the highest numbers (n=18, 640), and were composed of two stocks: tule and upriver bright. Almost all captured fall Chinook salmon were age-0, with only 16 (0.09 percent) being age-1 or older.Tule fall Chinook salmon, the native stock, generally out-migrated from mid-March through early April. The tule stock was the more abundant fall Chinook salmon subspecies, comprising 85 percent of those captured in the trap.Upriver bright fall Chinook salmon comprised 15 percent of the Chinook salmon catch and generally out-migrated from late May to early June.Coho salmon ( kisutch) and steelhead trout (O. mykiss) were captured by the rotary screw trap in all years. Coho salmon were caught in low numbers (n=661) and 69 percent were age-0 fish. Steelhead were slightly more abundant (n=679) than coho salmon and 84 percent were age-1 or older fish.Trap efficiency estimates varied widely (range, 0-10 percent) by species, fish size, and time of year. However, if we use only the estimates from efficiency tests where more than 300 wild age-0 Chinook salmon were released, there was a mean trapping efficiency of 1.4 percent (n=4, median, 1.3 percent, range, 0.3–2.4 percent) during the tule out-migration period, and a mean trapping efficiency of 0.8 percent (n=2, range, 0.3–1.2 percent) during the upriver bright fall Chinook salmon out-migration period.When water levels in the White Salmon River declined in late summer, we electrofished the river margins in 2006–09 along three sites at rkm 1.5, 2.3, and 4.2. Age-0 steelhead were the most abundant fish captured (n=565, 62 percent), followed by age-0 coho salmon (n=222, 24 percent). In autumn, age-0 Chinook salmon were collected while electrofishing (n=40, 4 percent). This suggests that there may be a migration in the autumn as age-0 Chinook salmon or in the spring as age-1 Chinook salmon, since the Chinook salmon that migrate as age-0 fish in the spring departed several months earlier (the typical life history for fall Chinook salmon). The only age-1 salmonids captured while electrofishing were steelhead (n=84, 9 percent). Fish distribution and abundance will likely change when Condit Dam is removed and anadromous fish gain access to their historical spawning and rearing areas in the White Salmon River. These findings should provide a baseline with which to compare juvenile fish species composition and relative abundance after Condit Dam is removed.

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

PubMed Central

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-01-01

Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

PubMed

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-03-01

This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

Parental age and risk of genetic syndromes predisposing to nervous system tumors: nested case–control study

PubMed Central

Adel Fahmideh, Maral; Tettamanti, Giorgio; Lavebratt, Catharina; Talbäck, Mats; Mathiesen, Tiit; Lannering, Birgitta; Johnson, Kimberly J; Feychting, Maria

2018-01-01

Purpose Phacomatoses are genetic syndromes that are associated with increased risk of developing nervous system tumors. Phacomatoses are usually inherited, but many develop de novo, with unknown etiology. In this population-based study, we investigated the effect of parental age on the risk of phacomatoses in offspring. Patients and methods The study was a population-based nested case–control study. All individuals born and residing in Sweden between January 1960 and December 2010 were eligible for inclusion. Using the Patient Register, 4625 phacomatosis cases were identified and further classified as familial or nonfamilial. Ten matched controls per case were randomly selected from the eligible population. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. Analyses were conducted for neurofibromatosis alone (n=2089) and other phacomatoses combined (n=2536). Results Compared with offspring of fathers aged 25–29 years, increased risk estimates of nonfamilial neurofibromatosis were found for offspring of fathers aged 35–39 years (odds ratio [OR]=1.43 [95% CI 1.16–1.74]) and ≥40 years (OR =1.74 [95% CI 1.38–2.19]). For other nonfamilial phacomatoses, the risk estimate for offspring of fathers aged ≥40 years was OR =1.23 (95% CI 1.01–1.50). Paternal age was not associated with familial phacomatoses, and no consistent association was observed with maternal age. Conclusion The findings show a consistent increase in risk of de novo occurrence of phacomatoses predisposing to nervous system tumors in offspring with increasing paternal age, most pronounced for neurofibromatosis, while maternal age did not seem to influence the risk. These findings suggest an increasing rate of new mutations in the NF1 and NF2 genes in spermatozoa of older fathers.

New ages for human occupation and climatic change at Lake Mungo, Australia.

PubMed

Bowler, James M; Johnston, Harvey; Olley, Jon M; Prescott, John R; Roberts, Richard G; Shawcross, Wilfred; Spooner, Nigel A

2003-02-20

Australia's oldest human remains, found at Lake Mungo, include the world's oldest ritual ochre burial (Mungo III) and the first recorded cremation (Mungo I). Until now, the importance of these finds has been constrained by limited chronologies and palaeoenvironmental information. Mungo III, the source of the world's oldest human mitochondrial DNA, has been variously estimated at 30 thousand years (kyr) old, 42-45 kyr old and 62 +/- 6 kyr old, while radiocarbon estimates placed the Mungo I cremation near 20-26 kyr ago. Here we report a new series of 25 optical ages showing that both burials occurred at 40 +/- 2 kyr ago and that humans were present at Lake Mungo by 50-46 kyr ago, synchronously with, or soon after, initial occupation of northern and western Australia. Stratigraphic evidence indicates fluctuations between lake-full and drier conditions from 50 to 40 kyr ago, simultaneously with increased dust deposition, human arrival and continent-wide extinction of the megafauna. This was followed by sustained aridity between 40 and 30 kyr ago. This new chronology corrects previous estimates for human burials at this important site and provides a new picture of Homo sapiens adapting to deteriorating climate in the world's driest inhabited continent.

Evaluating the Effect of Labeled Benchmarks on Children’s Number Line Estimation Performance and Strategy Use

PubMed Central

Peeters, Dominique; Sekeris, Elke; Verschaffel, Lieven; Luwel, Koen

2017-01-01

Some authors argue that age-related improvements in number line estimation (NLE) performance result from changes in strategy use. More specifically, children’s strategy use develops from only using the origin of the number line, to using the origin and the endpoint, to eventually also relying on the midpoint of the number line. Recently, Peeters et al. (unpublished) investigated whether the provision of additional unlabeled benchmarks at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, positively affects third and fifth graders’ NLE performance and benchmark-based strategy use. It was found that only the older children benefitted from the presence of these benchmarks at the quartiles of the number line (i.e., 25 and 75%), as they made more use of these benchmarks, leading to more accurate estimates. A possible explanation for this lack of improvement in third graders might be their inability to correctly link the presented benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values. In the present study, we investigated whether labeling these benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values, would have a positive effect on younger children’s NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use as well. Third and sixth graders were assigned to one of three conditions: (a) a control condition with an empty number line bounded by 0 at the origin and 1,000 at the endpoint, (b) an unlabeled condition with three additional external benchmarks without numerical labels at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, and (c) a labeled condition in which these benchmarks were labeled with 250, 500, and 750, respectively. Results indicated that labeling the benchmarks has a positive effect on third graders’ NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use, whereas sixth graders already benefited from the mere provision of unlabeled benchmarks. These findings imply that children’s benchmark-based strategy use can be stimulated by adding additional externally provided benchmarks on the number line, but that, depending on children’s age and familiarity with the number range, these additional external benchmarks might need to be labeled. PMID:28713302

The differential associations of preexisting conditions with trauma-related outcomes in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Calvo, Richard Yee; Lindsay, Suzanne P; Edland, Steven D; Macera, Caroline A; Wingard, Deborah L; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Sise, Michael J

2016-03-01

Pre-existing chronic conditions (PECs) pose a unique problem for the care of aging trauma populations. However, the relationships between specific conditions and outcomes after injury are relatively unknown. Evaluation of trauma patients is further complicated by their discharge to care facilities, where mortality risk remains high. Traditional approaches for evaluating in-hospital mortality do not account for the discharge of at-risk patients, which constitutes a competing risk event to death. The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between 40 PECs and two clinical outcomes in the context of competing risks among older trauma patients. This retrospective study evaluated blunt-injured patients aged 55 years and older admitted to a level I trauma centre in 2006-2012. Outcomes were hospital length of stay (HLOS) and in-hospital mortality. Survivors were classified as discharges home or discharges to care facilities. Competing risks regression was used to evaluate each PEC with in-hospital mortality, accounting for discharges to care facilities as competing events. Competing risk estimates were compared to Cox model estimates, for which all survivors to discharge were non-events. Analyses were stratified using injury-based mortality risk at a 50% cutpoint (high versus low). Among 4653 patients, 176 died in-hospital, 3059 were discharged home, and 1418 were discharged to a care facility. Most patients (98%) were classified with a low mortality risk. Only haemophilia and coagulopathy were consistently associated with longer HLOS. In the low-risk subgroup, in-hospital mortality was most strongly associated with liver diseases, haemophilia, and coagulopathy. In the high-risk group, Parkinson's disease, depression, and cancers showed the strongest associations. Accounting for the competing event altered estimates for 12 of 19 significant conditions. Excess mortality among patients expected to survive their injuries may be attributable to complications resulting from PECs. Discharges to care facilities constitute a bias in the evaluation of in-hospital mortality and should be considered for the accurate calculation of risk. In conjunction with injury measures, consideration of PECs provides physicians with a foundation to plan clinical decisions in older trauma patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Effect of Labeled Benchmarks on Children's Number Line Estimation Performance and Strategy Use.

PubMed

Peeters, Dominique; Sekeris, Elke; Verschaffel, Lieven; Luwel, Koen

2017-01-01

Some authors argue that age-related improvements in number line estimation (NLE) performance result from changes in strategy use. More specifically, children's strategy use develops from only using the origin of the number line, to using the origin and the endpoint, to eventually also relying on the midpoint of the number line. Recently, Peeters et al. (unpublished) investigated whether the provision of additional unlabeled benchmarks at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, positively affects third and fifth graders' NLE performance and benchmark-based strategy use. It was found that only the older children benefitted from the presence of these benchmarks at the quartiles of the number line (i.e., 25 and 75%), as they made more use of these benchmarks, leading to more accurate estimates. A possible explanation for this lack of improvement in third graders might be their inability to correctly link the presented benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values. In the present study, we investigated whether labeling these benchmarks with their corresponding numerical values, would have a positive effect on younger children's NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use as well. Third and sixth graders were assigned to one of three conditions: (a) a control condition with an empty number line bounded by 0 at the origin and 1,000 at the endpoint, (b) an unlabeled condition with three additional external benchmarks without numerical labels at 25, 50, and 75% of the number line, and (c) a labeled condition in which these benchmarks were labeled with 250, 500, and 750, respectively. Results indicated that labeling the benchmarks has a positive effect on third graders' NLE performance and quartile-based strategy use, whereas sixth graders already benefited from the mere provision of unlabeled benchmarks. These findings imply that children's benchmark-based strategy use can be stimulated by adding additional externally provided benchmarks on the number line, but that, depending on children's age and familiarity with the number range, these additional external benchmarks might need to be labeled.

Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl

2014-01-01

We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-classmore » SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.« less

Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

2015-01-01

Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

Are autism spectrum conditions more prevalent in an information-technology region? A school-based study of three regions in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Roelfsema, Martine T; Hoekstra, Rosa A; Allison, Carrie; Wheelwright, Sally; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2012-05-01

We tested for differences in the prevalence of autism spectrum conditions (ASC) in school-aged children in three geographical regions in the Netherlands. Schools were asked to provide the number of children enrolled, the number having a clinical diagnosis of ASC and/or two control neurodevelopmental conditions. Prevalence was evaluated by negative binomial regression and adjustments were made for non-response and size of the schools. The prevalence estimates of ASC in Eindhoven was 229 per 10,000, significantly higher than in Haarlem (84 per 10,000) and Utrecht (57 per 10,000), whilst the prevalence for the control conditions were similar in all regions. Phase two is planned to validate school-reported cases using standardized diagnostic methods and to explore the possible causes for these differences.

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

2009-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

Influence of municipal- and individual-level socioeconomic conditions on mortality in Japan.

PubMed

Honjo, Kaori; Iso, Hiroyasu; Fukuda, Yoshiharu; Nishi, Nobuo; Nakaya, Tomoki; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Tanabe, Naohito; Suzuki, Sadao; Subramanian, S V; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2014-01-01

The health effect of area socioeconomic conditions has been evident especially in Western countries; however, limited research has focused on the effect of municipal-level socioeconomic conditions, especially in Asia. Multilevel research using data from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study, a large cohort study followed from 1990 to 2006, was conducted to examine individual as well as municipal socioeconomic conditions on risk of death, adjusting for each other. We included 24,460 men and 32,649 women aged 40 to 65 years at baseline in 35 municipalities as our study population. Primary predictors were municipal socioeconomic conditions (proportion of college graduates, per capita income, unemployment rate, and proportion of households receiving public assistance) and individual socioeconomic conditions (education level and occupation). Among men, the multilevel logistic estimate (standard errors) of proportion of college graduates and unemployment rate for mortality from cardiovascular disease were -0.399 (0.094) and -0.343 (0.122), respectively. Among women, the multilevel logistic estimate (standard errors) of proportion of college graduates and per capita annual income for mortality from injuries were -0.386 (0.171) and -1.069 (0.407). Individual education level and occupation were associated with all-cause mortality, in particular, mortality from cardiovascular disease or injuries. Interactions between individual education level and indicators of municipal socioeconomic conditions were observed for mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease among men and mortality from injuries among women. Municipal and individual socioeconomic conditions were independently and interactively associated with premature death; this suggests that reducing social inequalities in health demands a focus on municipal conditions in addition to those of individuals.

Depression and chronic pain in the elderly: links and management challenges

PubMed Central

Zis, Panagiotis; Daskalaki, Argyro; Bountouni, Ilia; Sykioti, Panagiota; Varrassi, Giustino; Paladini, Antonella

2017-01-01

Aging is an inevitable process and represents the accumulation of bodily alterations over time. Depression and chronic pain are highly prevalent in elderly populations. It is estimated that 13% of the elderly population will suffer simultaneously from the two conditions. Accumulating evidence suggests than neuroinflammation plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of both depression and chronic pain. Apart from the common pathophysiological mechanisms, however, the two entities have several clinical links. Their management is challenging for the pain physician; however, both pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic approaches are available and can be used when the two conditions are comorbid in the elderly patients. PMID:28461745

Effects of erotic stimulation and masturbatory training upon situational orgasmic dysfunction.

PubMed

Reisinger, J J

1978-01-01

Six single women, aged 22 to 29 years, were treated in a laboratory situation through erotic stimulation with masturbatory training for the disorder of situational orgasmic dysfunction. With single subject designs, three conditions of treatment were counterbalanced to estimate component effects. Intervention conditions included exposure to selected erotic stimuli, self-masturbation, and the preceding simultaneous combination. Frequency of orgasm was monitored via heart rate and verbal confirmation. Erotic stimulation with masturbatory training proved adequate to establish and maintain orgasmic responsiveness. Follow-up measures, conducted 6 to 12 months thereafter, partially supported generalization of treatment effects across environments and into existing heterosexual patterns of behavior.

Infantile hydrocephalus: a review of epidemiology, classification and causes

PubMed Central

Tully, Hannah M; Dobyns, William B

2015-01-01

Hydrocephalus is a common but complex condition caused by physical or functional obstruction of CSF flow that leads to progressive ventricular dilatation. Though hydrocephalus was recently estimated to affect 1.1 in 1,000 infants, there have been few systematic assessments of the causes of hydrocephalus in this age group, which makes it a challenging condition to approach as a scientist or as a clinician. Here, we review contemporary literature on the epidemiology, classification and pathogenesis of infantile hydrocephalus. We describe the major environmental and genetic causes of hydrocephalus, with the goal of providing a framework to assess infants with hydrocephalus and guide future research. PMID:24932902

Are neighbourhood inequalities in adult health explained by socio-economic and psychosocial determinants in adolescence and the subsequent life course in northern Sweden? A decomposition analysis.

PubMed

Jonsson, Frida; Sebastian, Miguel San; Hammarström, Anne; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-06-07

This study explains neighbourhood deprivation inequalities in adult health for a northern Swedish cohort by examining the contribution of socio-economic and psychosocial determinants from adolescence (age 16), young adulthood (age 21) and midlife (age 42) to the disparity. Self-reported information from 873 participants was drawn from questionnaires, with complementary neighbourhood register data. The concentration index was used to estimate the inequality while decomposition analyses were run to attribute the disparity to its underlying determinants. The results suggest that socio-economic and psychosocial factors in midlife explain a substantial part, but also that the inequality can originate from conditions in adolescence and young adulthood. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

PubMed

Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

2016-07-01

Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Direct Imaging of a Cold Jovian Exoplanet in Orbit around the Sun-Like Star GJ 504

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuzuhara, M.; Tamura, M.; Kudo, T.; Janson, M; Kandori, R.; Brandt, T. D.; Thalmann, C.; Spiegel, D.; Biller, B.; Carson, J.;

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuzuhara, M.; Tamura, M.; Kandori, R.

Several exoplanets have recently been imaged at wide separations of >10 AU from their parent stars. These span a limited range of ages (<50 Myr) and atmospheric properties, with temperatures of 800-1800 K and very red colors (J - H > 0.5 mag), implying thick cloud covers. Furthermore, substantial model uncertainties exist at these young ages due to the unknown initial conditions at formation, which can lead to an order of magnitude of uncertainty in the modeled planet mass. Here, we report the direct-imaging discovery of a Jovian exoplanet around the Sun-like star GJ 504, detected as part of themore » SEEDS survey. The system is older than all other known directly imaged planets; as a result, its estimated mass remains in the planetary regime independent of uncertainties related to choices of initial conditions in the exoplanet modeling. Using the most common exoplanet cooling model, and given the system age of 160{sup +350}{sub -60} Myr, GJ 504b has an estimated mass of 4{sup +4.5}{sub -1.0} Jupiter masses, among the lowest of directly imaged planets. Its projected separation of 43.5 AU exceeds the typical outer boundary of {approx}30 AU predicted for the core accretion mechanism. GJ 504b is also significantly cooler (510{sup +30}{sub -20} K) and has a bluer color (J - H = -0.23 mag) than previously imaged exoplanets, suggesting a largely cloud-free atmosphere accessible to spectroscopic characterization. Thus, it has the potential of providing novel insights into the origins of giant planets as well as their atmospheric properties.« less

Nocturia in men is a chaotic condition dominated by nocturnal polyuria.

PubMed

Fujimura, Tetsuya; Yamada, Yuta; Sugihara, Toru; Azuma, Takeshi; Suzuki, Motofumi; Fukuhara, Hiroshi; Nakagawa, Tohru; Kume, Haruki; Igawa, Yasuhiko; Homma, Yukio

2015-05-01

To characterize nocturia in men based on frequency volume chart data and symptom profiles assessed using the Core Lower Urinary Tract Symptom Score and Athens Insomnia Scale questionnaires. The Core Lower Urinary Tract Symptom Score and Athens Insomnia Scale questionnaires were administered to 299 consecutive treatment naïve men with nocturia (≥one time per night). Frequency volume chart data were recorded for 2 days. Correlations between nocturia and clinical characteristics including symptom scores, clinical diagnosis, Charlson Comorbidity Index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, uroflowmetry and prostate volume were analyzed. Patients were divided into five groups: one time (n = 36), two times (n = 65), three times (n = 85), four times (n = 78) and five times (n = 34) of nocturia. Age, prevalence or severity of chronic kidney disease, hyperlipidemia, low bladder capacity, nocturnal polyuria, urgency, bladder pain and sleep disorders were significantly correlated with the severity of nocturia. The Spearman correlation analysis identified eight possible independent factors for nocturia: age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, urgency, bladder pain, sleep quality, sleepiness during the day, average voided volume and nocturnal volume divided by body weight. Logistic regression analysis showed that nocturnal volume divided by body weight was the strongest factor of nocturia, and ≥7, 9 and 9.7 mL/kg were practical cut-off values of three, four and five times per night of nocturia, respectively. Nocturia in men is a chaotic condition dominated by nocturnal polyuria, and related to multiple factors including age, renal function, urgency, bladder pain, insomnia and bladder volume. © 2015 The Japanese Urological Association.

Risk factors for length of stay and charge per day differ between older and younger hospitalized patients with AML.

PubMed

Kumar, Anita J; Henzer, Tobi; Rodday, Angie Mae; Parsons, Susan K

2018-04-16

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with frequent hospitalizations. We evaluated factors associated with length of stay (LOS) and charge per day (CPD) for admissions in older (≥60 years) and younger patients (<60 years). We identified patients with ICD-9-CM codes for AML or myeloid sarcoma in the 2012 HCUP-NIS. In separate models based on age, we examined patient (sex, race, income, insurance payer, chronic conditions, chemotherapy administration, death) and hospital (type, geography) characteristics. Multivariable negative binomial regression estimated factor effects on LOS and CPD using rate ratios, with HCUP-NIS weights. In 43,820 discharges, LOS was longer in patients <60 than ≥60 (6.8 vs. 5.4 days). For patients <60, longer LOS was seen with more chronic conditions (RR = 1.10), Black race (RR = 1.16), chemotherapy (RR = 2.27), and geography; shorter LOS was associated with older age (RR = 0.93), Medicare (RR = 0.83), and hospital type. For patients ≥60, longer LOS associated with chronic conditions (RR = 1.07) and Asian race (RR = 1.33). Shorter LOS associated with older age (RR = 0.86), higher income (RR = 0.93), and hospital type. For patients <60, higher CPD associated with chronic conditions (RR = 1.05), death (RR = 1.93), and geography; lower CPD associated with increasing age (RR = 0.96), Medicaid (RR = 0.93), and rural hospitals (RR = 0.65). For patients ≥60, higher CPD associated with Medicare (RR = 1.05), more chronic conditions (RR = 1.02), younger age (RR = 1.1), west geography (RR = 1.37), death (RR = 1.45), and Hispanic race (RR = 1.15). We identify predictors for increased healthcare utilization in hospitalized patients with AML, which differ within age groups. Future efforts are needed to link utilization outcomes with clinical treatments and response. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic trends among older cannabis users in the United States, 2006–13

PubMed Central

Han, Benjamin H.; Sherman, Scott; Mauro, Pia M.; Martins, Silvia S.; Rotenberg, James; Palamar, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The ageing US population is providing an unprecedented population of older adults who use recreational drugs. We aimed to estimate the trends in the prevalence of past-year use of cannabis, describe the patterns and attitudes and determine correlates of cannabis use by adults age 50 years and older. Design Secondary analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health survey from 2006 to 2013, a cross-sectional survey given to a nationally representative probability sample of populations living in US households. Setting USA. Participants A total of 47 140 survey respondents aged ≥ 50 years. Measures Estimates and trends of past-year use of cannabis. Findings The prevalence of past-year cannabis use among adults aged ≥ 50 increased significantly from 2006/07 to 2012/13, with a 57.8% relative increase for adults aged 50–64 (linear trend P < 0.001) and a 250% relative increase for those aged ≥ 65 (linear trend P = 0.002). When combining data from 2006 to 2013, 6.9% of older cannabis users met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, and the majority of the sample reported perceiving no risk or slight risk associated with monthly cannabis use (85.3%) or weekly use (79%). Past-year users were more likely to be younger, male, non-Hispanic, not have multiple chronic conditions and use tobacco, alcohol or other drugs compared with non-past-year cannabis users. Conclusions The prevalence of cannabis use has increased significantly in recent years among US adults aged ≥ 50 years. PMID:27767235

Urban crash-related child pedestrian injury incidence and characteristics associated with injury severity.

PubMed

Koopmans, Joy M; Friedman, Lee; Kwon, Soyang; Sheehan, Karen

2015-04-01

Describe age-based urban pedestrian versus auto crash characteristics and identify crash characteristics associated with injury severity. Secondary analysis of the 2004-2010 National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration database for Illinois. All persons in Chicago crashes with age data who were listed as pedestrians (n=7175 child age ≤19 yo, n=16,398 adult age ≥20 yo) were included. Incidence and crash characteristics were analyzed by age groups and year. Main outcome measures were incidence, crash setting, and injury severity. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate injury severity by crash characteristics. Overall incidence was higher for child (146.6 per 100,000) versus adult (117.3 per 100,000) pedestrians but case fatality rate was lower (0.7% for children, 1.7% for adults). Child but not adult pedestrian injury incidence declined over time (trend test p<0.0001 for <5 yo, 5-9 yo, and 10-14 yo; p<0.05 for 15-19 yo, p=0.96 for ≥20 yo). Most crashes for both children and adults took place during optimal driving conditions. Injuries were more frequent during warmer months for younger age groups compared to older (χ(2)p<0.001). Midblock crashes increased as age decreased (p<0.0001 for trend). Most crashes occurred at sites with sub-optimal traffic controls but varied by age (p<0.0001 for trend). Crashes were more likely to be during daylight on dry roads in clear weather conditions for younger age groups compared to older (χ(2)p<0.001). Daylight was associated with less severe injury (child OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.98; adult OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87-0.93). The incidence of urban pedestrian crashes declined over time for child subgroups but not for adults. The setting of pedestrian crashes in Chicago today varies by age but is similar to that seen in other urban locales previously. Injuries for all age groups tend to be less severe during daylight conditions. Age-based prevention efforts may prove beneficial. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in the model making them more difficult to interpret but highlighting the usefulness of the non-linear machine learning method. 2D interaction plots show probability of anoxic groundwater conditions largely control estimated nitrate concentrations compared to the other predictors.

Clinical predictors of older driver performance on a standardized road test.

PubMed

Classen, Sherrilene; Horgas, Ann; Awadzi, Kezia; Messinger-Rapport, Barbara; Shechtman, Orit; Joo, Yongsung

2008-10-01

To determine the relationship between clinical variables (demographics, cognitive testing, comorbidities, and medications) and failing a standardized road test in older adults. Analysis of on-the road studies performed in optimal weather conditions, between January 1, 2005, and May 1, 2007. The standardized testing was held at the National Older Driver Research and Training Center (NODRTC), Florida, and included 127 adults aged 65 and older with current driver licenses, recruited by advertisement from the Gainesville, Florida, community. Measurements consist of demographics, self-reported medications and medical conditions, cognitive testing including Trail Making Part B, global rating score (pass/fail), and driver maneuver score (0-273, with 273 indicating perfect driving or zero errors). A total of 127 older adults completed the protocol. Mean age was 74.8 years (SD = 6.3); 46.5% females. Mean time for Trail Making Part B was 114.3 seconds (SD of 83). Among the 127 drivers, the mean Sum of Maneuvers Score was 238.9 (SD of 25.0) and 24 (19%) failed the driver test. Odds ratio estimates for failing the test included advanced age (6.7, 95% CI 2.2 to 19.8), presence of a neurological disease (2.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 6.5), and prolonged time to complete the Trail Making Part B cognitive test (2.5, 95% CI 1.0 to 5.9). Conversely, odds ratio estimates lowering the risk of failure included taking a non-diabetic hormonal medications (e.g., thyroid and estrogen drugs; 0.3, 95% CI .09 to 0.7) and having a musculoskeletal diagnosis (0.3, 95% CI .1 to 0.7). To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the medical predictors of failing a standardized road test. Advanced age and prolonged time on Trail Making Part B were the two major predictors of test failure and a lower Sum of Maneuvers Score. Our study also found that having a neurological diagnosis (primarily cerebrovascular and Parkinson's disease) predicted test failure. Medications from neurological class also predicted a lower Sum of Maneuvers Score. Further study needs to be done to explain the apparent protective effect of musculoskeletal conditions and hormonal medications.

Geographic clustering of elderly people with above-norm anthropometric measurements and blood chemistry.

PubMed

Mena, Carlos; Fuentes, Eduardo; Ormazábal, Yony; Palomo, Iván

2017-05-11

The global percentage of people over 60 is strongly increasing and estimated to exceed 20% by 20,150, which means that there will be an increase in many pathological conditions related to aging. Mapping of the location of aging people and identification of their needs can be extremely valuable from a social-economic point of view. Participants in this study were 148 randomly selected adults from Talca City, Chile aged 60-74 at baseline. Geographic information systems (GIS) analyses were performed using ArcGIS software through its module Spatial Autocorrelation. In this study, we demonstrated that elderly people show geographic clustering according to above-norm results of anthropometric measurements and blood chemistry. The spatial identifications found would facilitate exploring the impact of treatment programmes in communities where many aging people live, thereby improving their quality of life as well as reducing overall costs.

Work after age 65: A prospective study of Australian men and women.

PubMed

Majeed, Tazeen; Forder, Peta M; Tavener, Meredith; Vo, Kha; Byles, Julie

2017-06-01

This study describes hours in paid work for Australian men and women aged over 65, focusing on associations between work and education. Data were analysed separately for men and women, from baseline and first follow-up surveys of the 45 and Up Study. Generalised estimating equation models were used to identify associations between work, education and other factors over time. The odds of doing paid work increased with higher education level and decreased with time, age, poorer physical function and having health conditions (high blood pressure, diabetes, stroke and breast cancer). Un-partnered women were more likely to work in later life than partnered women. This study quantifies the importance of education and health factors in determining continued participation of Australian men and women in paid work in later life. These factors need to be considered for policies aiming to increase workforce participation beyond 65 years of age. © 2017 AJA Inc.

The impact of chronic conditions of care recipients on the labour force participation of informal carers in Australia: which conditions are associated with higher rates of non-participation in the labour force?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Little is known about the effects of personal and other characteristics of care recipients on the behaviour of carers. The aim of this study is to examine the association between the main chronic (disabling) condition of care recipients and the likelihood of their (matched) primary carers aged 15–64 years being out of the labour force. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of cross-sectional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2009 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC) for people aged 15–64 years. We estimated the rates of exit from the labour force for primary carers and non-carers; rates of chronic disease occurrence for care recipients living with their main carers; odds ratios of primary carers being out of the labour force associated with the main chronic condition of their care recipient who lives with them. Results From the 2009 SDAC, we identified 1,268 out of 37,186 eligible participants who were primary carers of a care recipient who lived with them. Of these, 628 (49.5%) were out of the labour force. Most common diseases of care recipients were: back problems (12%); arthritis and related disorders (10%); diseases of the nervous system (such as multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, cerebral palsy) (7.4%); and conditions originating in the perinatal period or congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities (5.1%). When adjusted for age, sex, education and whether have a long term chronic condition of informal carers, the five conditions of care recipients associated with the highest odds of their carers being out of the labour force were: head injury/acquired brain damage; neoplasms, blood diseases, disorders of the immune system; leg/knee/foot/hip damage from injury/accident; dementia, Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease; and diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (osteoporosis). Conclusions This study identifies the type of conditions that have the greatest impact on the labour force participation of informal carers – previously unavailable information for Australia. Australia, like most developed countries, is facing several skills shortages and an ageing population. These governments will need to adopt novel and more wholistic approaches to increase the labour force participation of diverse groups. Informal carers are one such group. PMID:24898043

Hospital-Based Emergency Department Visits With Dental Conditions: Impact of the Medicaid Reimbursement Fee for Dental Services in New York State, 2009-2013.

PubMed

Rampa, Sankeerth; Wilson, Fernando A; Wang, Hongmei; Wehbi, Nizar K; Smith, Lynette; Allareddy, Veerasathpurush

2018-06-01

Hospital-based emergency department (ED) visits for dental problems have been on the rise. The objectives of this study are to provide estimates of hospital-based ED visits with dental conditions in New York State and to examine the impact of Medicaid reimbursement fee for dental services on the utilization of EDs with dental conditions. New York State Emergency Department Database for the year 2009-2013 and Health Resources and Services Administration's Area Health Resource File were used. All ED visits with diagnosis for dental conditions were selected for analysis. The present study found a total of 325,354 ED visits with dental conditions. The mean age of patient was 32.4 years. A majority of ED visits were made by those aged 25-44 years (49%). Whites comprised 52.1% of ED visits. Proportion of Medicaid increased from 22% (in 2009) to 41.3% (in 2013). For Medicaid patients, the mean ED charges and aggregated ED charges were $811.4 and $88.1 million, respectively. Eleven counties had fewer than 4 dentists per 10,000 population in New York State. High-risk groups identified from the study are those aged 25-44 years, uninsured, covered by Medicaid and private insurance, and residing in low-income areas. The study highlights the need for increased Medicaid reimbursement for dentists and improves access to preventive dental care especially for the vulnerable groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

PubMed

De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

2015-09-01

Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity.

An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan, Honduras.

PubMed

Storey, Rebecca

2007-01-01

Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Relative age and birthplace effect in Japanese professional sports: a quantitative evaluation using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model.

PubMed

Ishigami, Hideaki

2016-01-01

Relative age effect (RAE) in sports has been well documented. Recent studies investigate the effect of birthplace in addition to the RAE. The first objective of this study was to show the magnitude of the RAE in two major professional sports in Japan, baseball and soccer. Second, we examined the birthplace effect and compared its magnitude with that of the RAE. The effect sizes were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with the number of players as dependent variable. The RAEs were 9.0% and 7.7% per month for soccer and baseball, respectively. These estimates imply that children born in the first month of a school year have about three times greater chance of becoming a professional player than those born in the last month of the year. Over half of the difference in likelihoods of becoming a professional player between birthplaces was accounted for by weather conditions, with the likelihood decreasing by 1% per snow day. An effect of population size was not detected in the data. By investigating different samples, we demonstrated that using quarterly data leads to underestimation and that the age range of sampled athletes should be set carefully.