Does the probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency differ between genders?

PubMed

Blanco-Hernández, Dulce Milagros Razo; Valencia-Aguirre, Jessica Daniela; Lima-Gómez, Virgilio

2011-01-01

Ocular trauma affects males more often than females, but the impact of this condition regarding visual prognosis is unknown. We undertook this study to compare the probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency between genders, as estimated by the ocular trauma score (OTS). We designed an observational, retrospective, comparative, cross-sectional and open-label study. Female patients aged ≥6 years with ocular trauma were included and matched by age and ocular wall status with male patients at a 1:2 male/female ratio. Initial trauma features and the probability of developing visual deficiency (best corrected visual acuity <20/40) 6 months after the injury, as estimated by the OTS, were compared between genders. The proportion and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of visual deficiency 6 months after the injury were estimated. Ocular trauma features and the probability of developing visual deficiency were compared between genders (χ(2) and Fisher's exact test); p value <0.05 was considered significant. Included were 399 eyes (133 from females and 266 from males). Mean age of patients was 25.7 ± 14.6 years. Statistical differences existed in the proportion of zone III in closed globe trauma (p = 0.01) and types A (p = 0.04) and type B (p = 0.02) in open globe trauma. The distribution of the OTS categories was similar for both genders (category 5: p = 0.9); the probability of developing visual deficiency was 32.6% (95% CI = 24.6 to 40.5) in females and 33.2% (95% CI = 27.6 to 38.9) in males (p = 0.9). The probability of developing ocular trauma-related visual deficiency was similar for both genders. The same standard is required.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

PubMed

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

Test for age-specificity in survival of the common tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nisbet, I.C.T.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Much effort in life-history theory has been addressed to the dependence of life-history traits on age, especially the phenomenon of senescence and its evolution. Although senescent declines in survival are well documented in humans and in domestic and laboratory animals, evidence for their occurrence and importance in wild animal species remains limited and equivocal. Several recent papers have suggested that methodological issues may contribute to this problem, and have encouraged investigators to improve sampling designs and to analyse their data using recently developed approaches to modelling of capture-mark-recapture data. Here we report on a three-year, two-site, mark-recapture study of known-aged common terns (Sterna hirundo) in the north-eastern USA. The study was nested within a long-term ecological study in which large numbers of chicks had been banded in each year for > 25 years. We used a range of models to test the hypothesis of an influence of age on survival probability. We also tested for a possible influence of sex on survival. The cross-sectional design of the study (one year's parameter estimates) avoided the possible confounding of effects of age and time. The study was conducted at a time when one of the study sites was being colonized and numbers were increasing rapidly. We detected two-way movements between the sites and estimated movement probabilities in the year for which they could be modelled. We also obtained limited data on emigration from our study area to more distant sites. We found no evidence that survival depended on either sex or age, except that survival was lower among the youngest birds (ages 2-3 years). Despite the large number of birds included in the study (1599 known-aged birds, 2367 total), confidence limits on estimates of survival probability were wide, especially for the oldest age-classes, so that a slight decline in survival late in life could not have been detected. In addition, the cross-sectional design of this study meant that a decline in survival probability within individuals (actuarial senescence) could have been masked by heterogeneity in survival probability among individuals (mortality selection). This emphasizes the need for the development of modelling tools permitting separation of these two phenomena, valid under field conditions in which the recapture probabilities are less than one.

Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

PubMed

Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

2015-07-01

Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Mosher, David C.; Shipp, Craig; Moscardelli, Lorena; Chaytor, Jason D.; Baxter, Christopher D. P.; Lee, Homa J.; Urgeles, Roger

2010-01-01

The empirical probability for the occurrence of submarine landslides at a given location can be estimated from age dates of past landslides. In this study, tools developed to estimate earthquake probability from paleoseismic horizons are adapted to estimate submarine landslide probability. In both types of estimates, one has to account for the uncertainty associated with age-dating individual events as well as the open time intervals before and after the observed sequence of landslides. For observed sequences of submarine landslides, we typically only have the age date of the youngest event and possibly of a seismic horizon that lies below the oldest event in a landslide sequence. We use an empirical Bayes analysis based on the Poisson-Gamma conjugate prior model specifically applied to the landslide probability problem. This model assumes that landslide events as imaged in geophysical data are independent and occur in time according to a Poisson distribution characterized by a rate parameter λ. With this method, we are able to estimate the most likely value of λ and, importantly, the range of uncertainty in this estimate. Examples considered include landslide sequences observed in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, and in Port Valdez, Alaska. We confirm that given the uncertainties of age dating that landslide complexes can be treated as single events by performing statistical test of age dates representing the main failure episode of the Holocene Storegga landslide complex.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

PubMed Central

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. Results When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Conclusions Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing. PMID:27004080

Age-dependent associations between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer risk.

PubMed

Muller, David C; Giles, Graham G; Sinclair, Rod; Hopper, John L; English, Dallas R; Severi, Gianluca

2013-02-01

Both prostate cancer and androgenetic alopecia are strongly age-related conditions that are considered to be androgen dependent, but studies of the relationship between them have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to assess whether androgenetic alopecia at ages 20 and 40 years are associated with risk of prostate cancer. At a follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, men were asked to assess their hair pattern at ages 20 and 40 years relative to eight categories in showcards. Cases were men notified to the Victorian Cancer Registry with prostate cancer diagnosed between cohort enrollment (1990-1994) and follow-up attendance (2003-2009). Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate age-varying HRs and predicted cumulative probabilities of prostate cancer by androgenetic alopecia categories. Of 9,448 men that attended follow-up and provided data on androgenetic alopecia, we identified 476 prostate cancer cases during a median follow-up of 11 years four months. Cumulative probability of prostate cancer was greater at all ages up to 76 years, for men with vertex versus no androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years. At age of 76 years, the estimated probabilities converged to 0.15. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at 40 years was also associated with younger age of diagnosis for prostate cancer cases. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years might be a marker of increased risk of early-onset prostate cancer. If confirmed, these results suggest that the apparently conflicting findings of previous studies might be explained by failure to adequately model the age-varying nature of the association between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer.

Temporal patterns of apparent leg band retention in North American geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Kendall, William L.; Moser, Timothy J.; White, Gary C.; Doherty, Paul F.

2009-01-01

An important assumption of mark?recapture studies is that individuals retain their marks, which has not been assessed for goose reward bands. We estimated aluminum leg band retention probabilities and modeled how band retention varied with band type (standard vs. reward band), band age (1-40 months), and goose characteristics (species and size class) for Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (Branta hutchinsii), snow (Chen caerulescens), and Ross?s (Chen rossii) geese that field coordinators double-leg banded during a North American goose reward band study (N = 40,999 individuals from 15 populations). We conditioned all models in this analysis on geese that were encountered with >1 leg band still attached (n = 5,747 dead recoveries and live recaptures). Retention probabilities for standard aluminum leg bands were high (estimate of 0.9995, SE = 0.001) and constant over 1-40 months. In contrast, apparent retention probabilities for reward bands demonstrated an interactive relationship between 5 size and species classes (small cackling, medium Canada, large Canada, snow, and Ross?s geese). In addition, apparent retention probabilities for each of the 5 classes varied quadratically with time, being lower immediately after banding and at older age classes. The differential retention probabilities among band type (reward vs. standard) that we observed suggests that 1) models estimating reporting probability should incorporate differential band loss if it is nontrivial, 2) goose managers should consider the costs and benefits of double-banding geese on an operational basis, and 3) the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Lab should modify protocols for receiving recovery data.

Sri Lankan FRAX model and country-specific intervention thresholds.

PubMed

Lekamwasam, Sarath

2013-01-01

There is a wide variation in fracture probabilities estimated by Asian FRAX models, although the outputs of South Asian models are concordant. Clinicians can choose either fixed or age-specific intervention thresholds when making treatment decisions in postmenopausal women. Cost-effectiveness of such approach, however, needs to be addressed. This study examined suitable fracture probability intervention thresholds (ITs) for Sri Lanka, based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model. Fracture probabilities were estimated using all Asian FRAX models for a postmenopausal woman of BMI 25 kg/m² and has no clinical risk factors apart from a fragility fracture, and they were compared. Age-specific ITs were estimated based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model using the method followed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group in the UK. Using the age-specific ITs as the reference standard, suitable fixed ITs were also estimated. Fracture probabilities estimated by different Asian FRAX models varied widely. Japanese and Taiwan models showed higher fracture probabilities while Chinese, Philippine, and Indonesian models gave lower fracture probabilities. Output of remaining FRAX models were generally similar. Age-specific ITs of major osteoporotic fracture probabilities (MOFP) based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model varied from 2.6 to 18% between 50 and 90 years. ITs of hip fracture probabilities (HFP) varied from 0.4 to 6.5% between 50 and 90 years. In finding fixed ITs, MOFP of 11% and HFP of 3.5% gave the lowest misclassification and highest agreement. Sri Lankan FRAX model behaves similar to other Asian FRAX models such as Indian, Singapore-Indian, Thai, and South Korean. Clinicians may use either the fixed or age-specific ITs in making therapeutic decisions in postmenopausal women. The economical aspects of such decisions, however, need to be considered.

Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Zaba, Basia; Kasamba, Ivan; Floyd, Sian; Isingo, Raphael; Herbst, Kobus; Bärnighausen, Till; Gregson, Simon; Nyamukapa, Constance; Kayuni, Ndoliwe; Todd, Jim; Marston, Milly; Wringe, Alison

2012-08-01

To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi).

PubMed

Mali, Ivana; Duarte, Adam; Forstner, Michael R J

2018-01-01

Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter ( Pseudemys gorzugi ) while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species. Although baited hoop-net traps seem to be an effective sampling design, it is important to note that this method required a relatively high trap effort to reliably estimate abundance. This information will be useful when developing a larger-scale, long-term monitoring program for this species of concern.

Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

PubMed

Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2014-08-01

Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

PubMed

Di Pietro, Giorgio

2018-02-01

This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis.

PubMed

Blostein, Freida; Levin-Sparenberg, Elizabeth; Wagner, Julian; Foxman, Betsy

2017-09-01

Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (RVVC), multiple episodes of vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC; vaginal yeast infection) within a 12-month period, adversely affects quality of life, mental health, and sexual activity. Diagnosis is not straightforward, as VVC is defined by the combination of often nonspecific vaginal symptoms and the presence of yeast-which is a common vaginal commensal. Estimating the incidence and prevalence is challenging: most VVC is diagnosed and treated empirically, the availability for purchase of effective therapies over the counter enables self-diagnosis and treatment, and the duration of the relatively benign VVC symptoms is short, introducing errors into any estimates relying on medical records or patient recall. We evaluate current estimates of VVC and RVVC and provide new prevalence estimates using data from a 2011 seven-country (n = 7345) internet panel survey on VVC conducted by Ipsos Health (https://www.ipsos.com/en). We also evaluate information on VVC-associated visits using the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. The estimated probability of VVC by age 50 varied widely by country (from 23% to 49%, mean 39%), as did the estimated probability of RVVC after VVC (from 14% to 28%, mean 23%). However estimated, the probability of RVVC was high suggesting RVVC is a common condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

1999-06-01

The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Identifying HIV care enrollees at-risk for cannabis use disorder.

PubMed

Hartzler, Bryan; Carlini, Beatriz H; Newville, Howard; Crane, Heidi M; Eron, Joseph J; Geng, Elvin H; Mathews, W Christopher; Mayer, Kenneth H; Moore, Richard D; Mugavero, Michael J; Napravnik, Sonia; Rodriguez, Benigno; Donovan, Dennis M

2017-07-01

Increased scientific attention given to cannabis in the United States has particular relevance for its domestic HIV care population, given that evidence exists for both cannabis as a therapeutic agent and cannabis use disorder (CUD) as a barrier to antiretroviral medication adherence. It is critical to identify relative risk for CUD among demographic subgroups of HIV patients, as this will inform detection and intervention efforts. A Center For AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort (N = 10,652) of HIV-positive adults linked to care at seven United State sites was examined for this purpose. Based on a patient-report instrument with validated diagnostic threshold for CUD, the prevalence of recent cannabis use and corresponding conditional probabilities for CUD were calculated for the aggregate sample and demographic subgroups. Generalized estimating equations then tested models directly examining patient demographic indices as predictors of CUD, while controlling for history and geography. Conditional probability of CUD among cannabis-using patients was 49%, with the highest conditional probabilities among demographic subgroups of young adults and those with non-specified sexual orientation (67-69%) and the lowest conditional probability among females and those 50+ years of age (42% apiece). Similarly, youthful age and male gender emerged as robust multivariate model predictors of CUD. In the context of increasingly lenient policies for use of cannabis as a therapeutic agent for chronic conditions like HIV/AIDS, current study findings offer needed direction in terms of specifying targeted patient groups in HIV care on whom resources for enhanced surveillance and intervention efforts will be most impactful.

Estimation of the age-specific per-contact probability of Ebola virus transmission in Liberia using agent-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, Constantinos I.; Anastassopoulou, Cleo; Russo, Lucia; Grigoras, Christos; Mylonakis, Eleftherios

2016-06-01

Based on multiscale agent-based computations we estimated the per-contact probability of transmission by age of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) that swept through Liberia from May 2014 to March 2015. For the approximation of the epidemic dynamics we have developed a detailed agent-based model with small-world interactions between individuals categorized by age. For the estimation of the structure of the evolving contact network as well as the per-contact transmission probabilities by age group we exploited the so called Equation-Free framework. Model parameters were fitted to official case counts reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as to recently published data of key epidemiological variables, such as the mean time to death, recovery and the case fatality rate.

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

PubMed

Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

2011-01-01

Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future reductions in mortality.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Prevalence of Anaemia and Associated Factors among Children below Five Years of Age in Cape Verde, West Africa

PubMed Central

Semedo, Rosa M.L.; Santos, Marta M.A.S.; Baião, Mirian R.; Luiz, Ronir R.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT This study estimated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors in a probability sample of 993 children aged 6-59 months in Cape Verde, West Africa. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated from a hierarchical model for multiple analysis to assess the association between anaemia and explanatory variables. The prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% (95% CI 47.7-55.8). Children who resided within poor household conditions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.06-3.71) were below 24 months of age (OR 3.23; 95% CI 2.03-5.15) and recently experienced diarrhoea (OR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.50) were at high risk of anaemia. Anaemia should be considered a serious public-health concern in Cape Verde, mainly for children below 24 months. Further, special consideration should be given to children who have experienced recent diarrhoea and belong to families residing in poor household conditions. PMID:25895198

Prevalence of anaemia and associated factors among children below five years of age in Cape Verde, West Africa.

PubMed

Semedo, Rosa M L; Santos, Marta M A S; Baião, Mirian R; Luiz, Ronir R; da Veiga, Gloria V

2014-12-01

This study estimated the prevalence of anaemia and associated factors in a probability sample of 993 chil- dren aged 6-59 months in Cape Verde, West Africa. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated from a hierarchical model for multiple analysis to assess the association between anaemia and explanatory variables. The prevalence of anaemia was 51.8% (95% CI 47.7-55.8). Children who resided within poor household conditions (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.06-3.71) were below 24 months of age (OR 3.23; 95% CI 2.03-5.15) and recently experienced diarrhoea (OR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.50) were at high risk of anaemia. Anaemia should be considered a serious public-health concern in Cape Verde, mainly for chil- dren below 24 months. Further, special consideration should be given to children who have experienced recent diarrhoea and belong to families residing in poor household conditions.

Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.

Naive Probability: Model-Based Estimates of Unique Events.

PubMed

Khemlani, Sangeet S; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

2015-08-01

We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Conditional survival of pediatric, adolescent, and young adult soft tissue sarcoma and bone tumor patients.

PubMed

Ou, Judy Y; Spraker-Perlman, Holly; Dietz, Andrew C; Smits-Seemann, Rochelle R; Kaul, Sapna; Kirchhoff, Anne C

2017-10-01

Survival estimates for soft tissue sarcomas (STS) and malignant bone tumors (BT) diagnosed in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult patients are not easily available. We present survival estimates based on a patient having survived a defined period of time (conditional survival). Conditional survival estimates for the short-term were calculated for patients from diagnosis to the first five years after diagnosis and for patients surviving in the long-term (up to 20 years after diagnosis). We identified 703 patients who were diagnosed with a STS or BT at age ≤25 years from January 1, 1986 to December 31, 2012 at a large pediatric oncology center in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States. We obtained cancer type, age at diagnosis, primary site, and demographic data from medical records, and vital status through the National Death Index. Cancer stage was available for a subset of the cohort through the Utah Cancer Registry. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age and sex, calculated survival estimates for all analyses. Short-term survival improves over time for both sarcomas. Short-term survival for STS from diagnosis (Year 0) did not differ by sex, but short-term survival starting from 1-year post diagnosis was significantly worse for male patients (Survival probability 1-year post-diagnosis [SP1]:77% [95% CI:71-83]) than female patients (SP1:86% [81-92]). Survival for patients who were diagnosed at age ≤10 years (Survival probability at diagnosis [SP0]:85% [79-91]) compared to diagnosis at ages 16-25 years (SP0:67% [59-75]) was significantly better at all time-points from diagnosis to 5-years post-diagnosis. Survival for axial sites (SP0:69% [63-75]) compared to extremities (SP0:84% [79-90]) was significantly worse from diagnosis to 1-year post-diagnosis. Survival for axial BT (SP0: 64% [54-74] was significantly worse than BT in the extremities (SP0:73% [68-79]) from diagnosis to 3-years post diagnosis. Relapsed patients of both sarcoma types had significantly worse short-term survival than non-relapsed patients. Long-term survival for STS in this cohort is 65% at diagnosis, and improves to 86% 5-years post-diagnosis. BT survival improves from 51% at diagnosis to 78% at 5-years post-diagnosis. Conditional survival for short- and long-term STS and BT improve as time from diagnosis increases. Short-term survival was significantly affected by patients' sex, age at diagnosis, cancer site, and relapse status. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Inverse Problem for a Class of Conditional Probability Measure-Dependent Evolution Equations

PubMed Central

Mirzaev, Inom; Byrne, Erin C.; Bortz, David M.

2016-01-01

We investigate the inverse problem of identifying a conditional probability measure in measure-dependent evolution equations arising in size-structured population modeling. We formulate the inverse problem as a least squares problem for the probability measure estimation. Using the Prohorov metric framework, we prove existence and consistency of the least squares estimates and outline a discretization scheme for approximating a conditional probability measure. For this scheme, we prove general method stability. The work is motivated by Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models of flocculation for which the shape of the post-fragmentation conditional probability measure greatly impacts the solution dynamics. To illustrate our methodology, we apply the theory to a particular PDE model that arises in the study of population dynamics for flocculating bacterial aggregates in suspension, and provide numerical evidence for the utility of the approach. PMID:28316360

Health-related quality of life among adults 65 years and older in the United States, 2011-2012: a multilevel small area estimation approach.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Hsiu; McLain, Alexander C; Probst, Janice C; Bennett, Kevin J; Qureshi, Zaina P; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop county-level estimates of poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among aged 65 years and older U.S. adults and to identify spatial clusters of poor HRQOL using a multilevel, poststratification approach. Multilevel, random-intercept models were fit to HRQOL data (two domains: physical health and mental health) from the 2011-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using a poststratification, small area estimation approach, we generated county-level probabilities of having poor HRQOL for each domain in U.S. adults aged 65 and older, and validated our model-based estimates against state and county direct estimates. County-level estimates of poor HRQOL in the United States ranged from 18.07% to 44.81% for physical health and 14.77% to 37.86% for mental health. Correlations between model-based and direct estimates were higher for physical than mental HRQOL. Counties located in the Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi exhibited the worst physical HRQOL scores, but this pattern did not hold for mental HRQOL, which had the highest probability of mentally unhealthy days in Illinois, Indiana, and Vermont. Substantial geographic variation in physical and mental HRQOL scores exists among older U.S. adults. State and local policy makers should consider these local conditions in targeting interventions and policies to counties with high levels of poor HRQOL scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The expected benefit of preventive mastectomy on breast cancer incidence and mortality in BRCA mutation carriers, by age at mastectomy.

PubMed

Giannakeas, Vasily; Narod, Steven A

2018-01-01

Preventive breast surgery is offered to unaffected BRCA mutation carriers to prevent breast cancer incidence and mortality. The clinical benefit of preventive mastectomy can be measured in several ways, including extension of life expectancy (mean years of life gained) and by estimating the probability of surviving until age 80. We sought to estimate the expected benefit of a preventive mastectomy at various ages, using these indices of mortality, by simulating hypothetical cohorts of women. The age-specific annual risks of developing breast cancer were used to estimate the actuarial risk of developing breast cancer by age 80 for women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. The probability of developing breast cancer before age 80 was then modified to include competing causes of death, including from ovarian cancer. The mortality rate from breast cancer after a diagnosis of breast cancer was set at 2% annually for the first 10 years and then 1% annually for years ten to twenty. The incidence rate and mortality rate from ovarian cancer were based on published literature. We assumed that preventive mastectomy was associated with complete protection against subsequent breast cancer. A series of simulations was conducted to evaluate the reduction in the probability of death (from all causes) until age 80, according to the age at mastectomy. The actuarial risk of developing breast cancer until age 80 was estimated to be 70.8%. The actual risk (incorporating competing risks) was 64.0%. The probability of being alive at age 80 by having a mastectomy at age 25 increased by 8.7% (from 42.7 to 51.3%). The estimated benefit declined with age at mastectomy; for surgery done at age 50 the improvement in survival to age 80 was much more modest (2.8% at age 80, from 42.7 to 45.5%). Among BRCA mutation carriers, the mortality benefit of preventive mastectomy at age 25 is substantial, but the expected benefit declines rapidly with increasing age at surgery.

Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

2013-01-01

DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability for the larger of 2 mixture proportions of the population (i.e., pA or pB, depending on the value of π) was most important for predicting accuracy and precision, whereas capture probabilities of both mixture proportions (pA and pB) were important to explain variation in coverage. Based on sampling conditions similar to parameter estimates from the empirical dataset (pA = 0.30, pB = 0.05, N = 250, π = 0.15, and k = 10), predicted accuracy and precision were low (60% and 53%, respectively), whereas coverage was high (94%). Increasing pB, the capture probability for the predominate but most difficult to capture proportion of the population, was most effective to improve accuracy under those conditions. However, manipulation of other parameters may be more effective under different conditions. In general, the probabilities of obtaining accurate and precise estimates were best when p≥ 0.2. Our regression models can be used by managers to evaluate specific sampling scenarios and guide development of sampling frameworks or to assess reliability of DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies.

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source fault would be performed in order to examine the amount of the displacement and conditional probability quantitatively.

Bootstrap imputation with a disease probability model minimized bias from misclassification due to administrative database codes.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2017-04-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative databases cause bias due to misclassification of patient disease status. It is unclear which methods minimize this bias. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 50,074 hospitalized patients. The true prevalence of severe renal failure and its association with covariates were measured. These were compared to results for which renal failure status was determined using surrogate measures including the following: (1) diagnostic codes; (2) categorization of probability estimates of renal failure determined from a previously validated model; or (3) bootstrap methods imputation of disease status using model-derived probability estimates. Bias in estimates of severe renal failure prevalence and its association with covariates were minimal when bootstrap methods were used to impute renal failure status from model-based probability estimates. In contrast, biases were extensive when renal failure status was determined using codes or methods in which model-based condition probability was categorized. Bias due to misclassification from inaccurate diagnostic codes can be minimized using bootstrap methods to impute condition status using multivariable model-derived probability estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals.

PubMed

Hadley, Gillian L; Rotella, Jay J; Garrott, Robert A; Nichols, James D

2006-09-01

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Epidemiology and social costs of hip fracture.

PubMed

Veronese, Nicola; Maggi, Stefania

2018-04-20

Hip fracture is an important and debilitating condition in older people, particularly in women. The epidemiological data varies between countries, but it is globally estimated that hip fractures will affect around 18% of women and 6% of men. Although the age-standardised incidence is gradually falling in many countries, this is far outweighed by the ageing of the population. Thus, the global number of hip fractures is expected to increase from 1.26 million in 1990 to 4.5 million by the year 2050. The direct costs associated with this condition are enormous since it requires a long period of hospitalisation and subsequent rehabilitation. Furthermore, hip fracture is associated with the development of other negative consequences, such as disability, depression, and cardiovascular diseases, with additional costs for society. In this review, we show the most recent epidemiological data regarding hip fracture, indicating the well-known risk factors and conditions that seem relevant for determining this condition. A specific part is dedicated to the social costs due to hip fracture. Although the costs of hip fracture are probably comparable to other common diseases with a high hospitalisation rate (e.g. cardiovascular disease), the other social costs (due to onset of new co-morbidities, sarcopenia, poor quality of life, disability and mortality) are probably greater. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Neubaum, D.J.; Neubaum, M.A.; Reynolds, C.A.; Bowen, R.A.

2010-01-01

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2013-01-01

The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

Implementation of the Iterative Proportion Fitting Algorithm for Geostatistical Facies Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Yupeng, E-mail: yupeng@ualberta.ca; Deutsch, Clayton V.

2012-06-15

In geostatistics, most stochastic algorithm for simulation of categorical variables such as facies or rock types require a conditional probability distribution. The multivariate probability distribution of all the grouped locations including the unsampled location permits calculation of the conditional probability directly based on its definition. In this article, the iterative proportion fitting (IPF) algorithm is implemented to infer this multivariate probability. Using the IPF algorithm, the multivariate probability is obtained by iterative modification to an initial estimated multivariate probability using lower order bivariate probabilities as constraints. The imposed bivariate marginal probabilities are inferred from profiles along drill holes or wells.more » In the IPF process, a sparse matrix is used to calculate the marginal probabilities from the multivariate probability, which makes the iterative fitting more tractable and practical. This algorithm can be extended to higher order marginal probability constraints as used in multiple point statistics. The theoretical framework is developed and illustrated with estimation and simulation example.« less

AGE-SPECIFIC PROBABILITY OF LIVE-BIRTH WITH OOCYTE CRYOPRESERVATION: AN INDIVIDUAL PATIENT DATA META-ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

CIL, AYLIN PELIN; BANG, HEEJUNG; OKTAY, KUTLUK

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate age-specific probabilities of live-birth with oocyte cryopreservation in non-donor (ND) egg cycles. Design Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. Setting Assisted reproduction centers. Patients Infertile patients undergoing ND mature oocyte cryopreservation. Interventions PubMed was searched for the clinical studies on oocyte cryopreservation from January 1996 through July 2011. Randomized and non-randomized studies that used ND frozen-thawed mature oocytes with pregnancy outcomes were included. Authors of eligible studies were contacted to obtain IPD. Main outcome measures Live-birth probabilities based on age, cryopreservation method, and the number of oocytes thawed, injected, or embryos transferred. Results Original data from 10 studies including 2265 cycles from 1805 patients were obtained. Live-birth success rates declined with age regardless of the freezing technique. Despite this age-induced compromise, live-births continued to occur as late as to the ages of 42 and 44 with slowly-frozen (SF) and vitrified (VF) oocytes, respectively. Estimated probabilities of live-birth for VF oocytes were higher than those for SF. Conclusions The live-birth probabilities we calculated would enable more accurate counseling and informed decision of infertile women who consider oocyte cryopreservation. Given the success probabilities, we suggest that policy-makers should consider oocyte freezing as an integral part of prevention and treatment of infertility. PMID:23706339

Cryptosporidiosis susceptibility and risk: a case study.

PubMed

Makri, Anna; Modarres, Reza; Parkin, Rebecca

2004-02-01

Regional estimates of cryptosporidiosis risks from drinking water exposure were developed and validated, accounting for AIDS status and age. We constructed a model with probability distributions and point estimates representing Cryptosporidium in tap water, tap water consumed per day (exposure characterization); dose response, illness given infection, prolonged illness given illness; and three conditional probabilities describing the likelihood of case detection by active surveillance (health effects characterization). The model predictions were combined with population data to derive expected case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population, by age and AIDS status, borough specific and for New York City overall in 2000 (risk characterization). They were compared with same-year surveillance data to evaluate predictive ability, assumed to represent true incidence of waterborne cryptosporidiosis. The predicted mean risks, similar to previously published estimates for this region, overpredicted observed incidence-most extensively when accounting for AIDS status. The results suggest that overprediction may be due to conservative parameters applied to both non-AIDS and AIDS populations, and that biological differences for children need to be incorporated. Interpretations are limited by the unknown accuracy of available surveillance data, in addition to variability and uncertainty of model predictions. The model appears sensitive to geographical differences in AIDS prevalence. The use of surveillance data for validation and model parameters pertinent to susceptibility are discussed.

Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: Results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

PubMed Central

García-Rodríguez, Olaya; Secades-Villa, Roberto; Flórez-Salamanca, Ludwing; Okuda, Mayumi; Liu, Shang-Min; Blanco, Carlos

2013-01-01

Background The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse. Methods Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1. Results The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses. Conclusions The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs. PMID:23570817

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains.

PubMed

Melnik, S S; Usatenko, O V

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Estimates of growth and mortality of under-yearling smallmouth bass in Spednic Lake, from 1970 through 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Trial, Joan G.

2014-01-01

This report is the product of a 2013 cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the International Joint Commission, and the Maine Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat to quantify the effects of meteorological conditions (from 1970 through 2008) on the survival of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the first year of life in Spednic Lake. This report documents the data and methods used to estimate historical daily mean lake surface-water temperatures from early spring through late autumn, which were used to estimate the dates of smallmouth bass spawning, young-of-the-year growth, and probable strength of each year class. Mortality of eggs and fry in nests was modeled and estimated to exceed 10 percent in 17 of 39 years; during those years, cold temperatures in the early part of the spawning period resulted in mortality to fish that were estimated to have had the longest growing season and attain the greatest length. Modeled length-dependent overwinter survival combined with early mortality identified 1986, 1994, 1996, and 2004 as the years in which temperature was likely to have presented the greatest challenge to year-class strength in the Spednic Lake fishery. Age distribution of bass in fisheries on lakes in the St. Croix and surrounding watersheds confirmed that conditions in 1986 and 1996 resulted in weak smallmouth bass year classes (age-four or age-five bass representing less than 15 percent of a 100-fish sample).

Covariate-adjusted Spearman's rank correlation with probability-scale residuals.

PubMed

Liu, Qi; Li, Chun; Wanga, Valentine; Shepherd, Bryan E

2018-06-01

It is desirable to adjust Spearman's rank correlation for covariates, yet existing approaches have limitations. For example, the traditionally defined partial Spearman's correlation does not have a sensible population parameter, and the conditional Spearman's correlation defined with copulas cannot be easily generalized to discrete variables. We define population parameters for both partial and conditional Spearman's correlation through concordance-discordance probabilities. The definitions are natural extensions of Spearman's rank correlation in the presence of covariates and are general for any orderable random variables. We show that they can be neatly expressed using probability-scale residuals (PSRs). This connection allows us to derive simple estimators. Our partial estimator for Spearman's correlation between X and Y adjusted for Z is the correlation of PSRs from models of X on Z and of Y on Z, which is analogous to the partial Pearson's correlation derived as the correlation of observed-minus-expected residuals. Our conditional estimator is the conditional correlation of PSRs. We describe estimation and inference, and highlight the use of semiparametric cumulative probability models, which allow preservation of the rank-based nature of Spearman's correlation. We conduct simulations to evaluate the performance of our estimators and compare them with other popular measures of association, demonstrating their robustness and efficiency. We illustrate our method in two applications, a biomarker study and a large survey. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Detection, prevalence, and transmission of avian hematozoa in waterfowl at the Arctic/sub-Arctic interface: co-infections, viral interactions, and sources of variation.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meixell, Brandt W.; Arnold, Todd W.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Smith, Matthew M.; Runstadler, Jonathan A.; Ramey, Andy M.

2016-01-01

Methods: We used molecular methods to screen blood samples and cloacal/oropharyngeal swabs collected from 1347 ducks of five species during May-August 2010, in interior Alaska, for the presence of hematozoa, Influenza A Virus (IAV), and IAV antibodies. Using models to account for imperfect detection of parasites, we estimated seasonal variation in prevalence of three parasite genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium, Leucocytozoon) and investigated how co-infection with parasites and viruses were related to the probability of infection. Results: We detected parasites from each hematozoan genus in adult and juvenile ducks of all species sampled. Seasonal patterns in detection and prevalence varied by parasite genus and species, age, and sex of duck hosts. The probabilities of infection for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites were strongly positively correlated, but hematozoa infection was not correlated with IAV infection or serostatus. The probability of Haemoproteus infection was negatively related to body condition in juvenile ducks; relationships between Leucocytozoon infection and body condition varied among host species. Conclusions: We present prevalence estimates for Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium infections in waterfowl at the interface of the sub-Arctic and Arctic and provide evidence for local transmission of all three parasite genera. Variation in prevalence and molecular detection of hematozoa parasites in wild ducks is influenced by seasonal timing and a number of host traits. A positive correlation in co-infection of Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus suggests that infection probability by parasites in one or both genera is enhanced by infection with the other, or that encounter rates of hosts and genus-specific vectors are correlated. Using size-adjusted mass as an index of host condition, we did not find evidence for strong deleterious consequences of hematozoa infection in wild ducks.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Nelms, David L.

2017-01-01

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Medical Care Expenditures and Earnings Losses Among Persons With Arthritis and Other Rheumatic Conditions in 2003, and Comparisons With 1997

PubMed Central

Yelin, Edward; Murphy, Louise; Cisternas, Miriam G.; Foreman, Aimee J.; Pasta, David J.; Helmick, Charles G.

2010-01-01

Objective To obtain estimates of medical care expenditures and earnings losses associated with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions and the increment in such costs attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions in the US in 2003, and to compare these estimates with those from 1997. Methods Estimates for 2003 were derived from the Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS), a national probability sample of households. We tabulated medical care expenditures of adult MEPS respondents, stratified by arthritis and comorbidity status, and used regression techniques to estimate the increment of medical care expenditures attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions. We also estimated the earnings losses sustained by working-age adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions. Estimates for 2003 were compared with those from 1997, inflated to 2003 terms. Results In 2003, there were 46.1 million adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions (versus 36.8 million in 1997). Adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions incurred mean medical care expenditures of $6,978 in 2003 (versus $6,346 in 1997), of which $1,635 was for prescriptions ($899 in 1997). Expenditures for adults with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions totaled $321.8 billion in 2003 ($233.5 billion in 1997). In 2003, the mean increment in medical care expenditures attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions was $1,752 ($1,762 in 1997), for a total of $80.8 billion ($64.8 billion in 1997). Persons with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions ages 18–64 years earned $3,613 less than other persons (versus $4,551 in 1997), for a total of $108.0 billion (versus $99.0 billion). Of this amount, $1,590 was attributable to arthritis and other rheumatic conditions (versus $1,946 in 1997), for a total of $47.0 billion ($43.3 billion in 1997). Conclusion Our findings indicate that the increase in medical care expenditures and earnings losses between 1997 and 2003 is due more to an increase in the number of persons with arthritis and other rheumatic conditions than to costs per case. PMID:17469096

Case−Control Study of Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease in Chile

PubMed Central

Matute, Isabel; González, Claudia; Delgado, Iris; Poffald, Lucy; Pedroni, Elena; Alfaro, Tania; Hirmas, Macarena; Nájera, Manuel; Gormaz, Ana; López, Darío; Loayza, Sergio; Ferreccio, Catterina; Gallegos, Doris; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Vial, Pablo; Aguilera, Ximena

2017-01-01

An outbreak of meningococcal disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% and caused by predominantly serogroup W of Neisseria meningitidis began in Chile in 2012. This outbreak required a case−control study to assess determinants and risk factors for infection. We identified confirmed cases during January 2012−March 2013 and selected controls by random sampling of the population, matched for age and sex, resulting in 135 case-patients and 618 controls. Sociodemographic variables, habits, and previous illnesses were studied. Analyses yielded adjusted odds ratios as estimators of the probability of disease development. Results indicated that conditions of social vulnerability, such as low income and overcrowding, as well as familial history of this disease and clinical histories, especially chronic diseases and hospitalization for respiratory conditions, increased the probability of illness. Findings should contribute to direction of intersectoral public policies toward a highly vulnerable social group to enable them to improve their living conditions and health. PMID:28628448

Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

2006-09-01

This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION OF INDICATORS OF STREAM CONDITION FOR MAIA USING HIERARCHICAL BAYES PREDICTION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Probability surveys of stream and river resources (hereafter referred to as streams) provide reliable estimates of stream condition when the areas for the estimates have sufficient number of sample sites. Monitoring programs are frequently asked to provide estimates for areas th...

Estimating the Probability of Traditional Copying, Conditional on Answer-Copying Statistics.

PubMed

Allen, Jeff; Ghattas, Andrew

2016-06-01

Statistics for detecting copying on multiple-choice tests produce p values measuring the probability of a value at least as large as that observed, under the null hypothesis of no copying. The posterior probability of copying is arguably more relevant than the p value, but cannot be derived from Bayes' theorem unless the population probability of copying and probability distribution of the answer-copying statistic under copying are known. In this article, the authors develop an estimator for the posterior probability of copying that is based on estimable quantities and can be used with any answer-copying statistic. The performance of the estimator is evaluated via simulation, and the authors demonstrate how to apply the formula using actual data. Potential uses, generalizability to other types of cheating, and limitations of the approach are discussed.

The prevalence of self-reported chronic conditions among Arab, Chaldean, and African Americans in southeast Michigan.

PubMed

Jamil, Hikmet; Dallo, Florence; Fakhouri, Monty; Templin, Thomas; Khoury, Radwan; Fakhouri, Haifa

2009-01-01

While there is a plethora of research on the prevalence of individual chronic conditions, studies that examine the clustering of these conditions are lacking, especially among immigrant, minority groups. Cross-sectional, convenience sample. A self-administered survey was distributed at churches, mosques, and small businesses. Arabs (n = 1383), Chaldeans (n = 868), Blacks (n = 809) and Whites (n = 220) in southeast Michigan. We estimated the prevalence of hypertension, high cholesterol, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, and depression. Using a logistic regression model, we estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between ethnicity and reporting one or more chronic conditions before and after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic status, health care, chronic conditions, and health behavior variables. The overall age and sex-adjusted prevalence of having one or more chronic conditions was 44%. Estimates were lower for Chaldeans (32%) compared to Arabs (44%), Whites and Blacks (50% for each group). In the fully adjusted model, Chaldeans were less likely (OR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.43-0.89) to report having one more chronic conditions compared to Whites. Future studies should employ probability samples, and should collect more detailed sociodemographic and acculturation data, which influence the relationship between race/ethnicity and the prevalence of chronic conditions.

Crude mortality and loss of life expectancy of patients diagnosed with urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder in Norway.

PubMed

Andreassen, Bettina K; Myklebust, Tor Å; Haug, Erik S

2017-02-01

Reports from cancer registries often lack clinically relevant information, which would be useful in estimating the prognosis of individual patients with urothelial carcinoma of the urinary bladder (UCB). This article presents estimates of crude probabilities of death due to UCB and the expected loss of lifetime stratified for patient characteristics. In Norway, 10,332 patients were diagnosed with UCB between 2001 and 2010. The crude probabilities of death due to UCB were estimated, stratified by gender, age and T stage, using flexible parametric survival models. Based on these models, the loss in expectation of lifetime due to UCB was also estimated for the different strata. There is large variation in the estimated crude probabilities of death due to UCB (from 0.03 to 0.76 within 10 years since diagnosis) depending on age, gender and T stage. Furthermore, the expected loss of life expectancy is more than a decade for younger patients with muscle-invasive UCB and between a few months and 5 years for nonmuscle-invasive UCB. The suggested framework leads to clinically relevant prognostic risk estimates for individual patients diagnosed with UCB and the consequence in terms of loss of lifetime expectation. The published probability tables can be used in clinical praxis for risk communication.

United States Geological Survey fire science: fire danger monitoring and forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.

2012-01-01

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.

A Comparative Study of Automated Infrasound Detectors - PMCC and AFD with Analyst Review.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Junghyun; Hayward, Chris; Zeiler, Cleat

Automated detections calculated by the progressive multi-channel correlation (PMCC) method (Cansi, 1995) and the adaptive F detector (AFD) (Arrowsmith et al., 2009) are compared to the signals identified by five independent analysts. Each detector was applied to a four-hour time sequence recorded by the Korean infrasound array CHNAR. This array was used because it is composed of both small (<100 m) and large (~1000 m) aperture element spacing. The four hour time sequence contained a number of easily identified signals under noise conditions that have average RMS amplitudes varied from 1.2 to 4.5 mPa (1 to 5 Hz), estimated withmore » running five-minute window. The effectiveness of the detectors was estimated for the small aperture, large aperture, small aperture combined with the large aperture, and full array. The full and combined arrays performed the best for AFD under all noise conditions while the large aperture array had the poorest performance for both detectors. PMCC produced similar results as AFD under the lower noise conditions, but did not produce as dramatic an increase in detections using the full and combined arrays. Both automated detectors and the analysts produced a decrease in detections under the higher noise conditions. Comparing the detection probabilities with Estimated Receiver Operating Characteristic (EROC) curves we found that the smaller value of consistency for PMCC and the larger p-value for AFD had the highest detection probability. These parameters produced greater changes in detection probability than estimates of the false alarm rate. The detection probability was impacted the most by noise level, with low noise (average RMS amplitude of 1.7 mPa) having an average detection probability of ~40% and high noise (average RMS amplitude of 2.9 mPa) average detection probability of ~23%.« less

Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

2005-01-01

We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Braeye, Toon; Verheagen, Jan; Mignon, Annick; Flipse, Wim; Pierard, Denis; Huygen, Kris; Schirvel, Carole; Hens, Niel

2016-01-01

Introduction Surveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented. Methods We investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples. Results No estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20–30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000. Conclusion We encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind. PMID:27529167

Modeling post-fledging survival of lark buntings in response to ecological and biological factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2006-01-01

We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages ≤3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages ≤3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 ± 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 ± 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.

Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Probability of Release of Hazardous Materials from Railroad Tank Cars during Accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-13

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to estimate the conditional probability of release of hazardous materials from railroad tank cars during train accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used in developing a probabilistic model to simulate head ...

Knock probability estimation through an in-cylinder temperature model with exogenous noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bares, P.; Selmanaj, D.; Guardiola, C.; Onder, C.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a new knock model which combines a deterministic knock model based on the in-cylinder temperature and an exogenous noise disturbing this temperature. The autoignition of the end-gas is modelled by an Arrhenius-like function and the knock probability is estimated by propagating a virtual error probability distribution. Results show that the random nature of knock can be explained by uncertainties at the in-cylinder temperature estimation. The model only has one parameter for calibration and thus can be easily adapted online. In order to reduce the measurement uncertainties associated with the air mass flow sensor, the trapped mass is derived from the in-cylinder pressure resonance, which improves the knock probability estimation and reduces the number of sensors needed for the model. A four stroke SI engine was used for model validation. By varying the intake temperature, the engine speed, the injected fuel mass, and the spark advance, specific tests were conducted, which furnished data with various knock intensities and probabilities. The new model is able to predict the knock probability within a sufficient range at various operating conditions. The trapped mass obtained by the acoustical model was compared in steady conditions by using a fuel balance and a lambda sensor and differences below 1 % were found.

Capture-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Runge, M.C.

2004-01-01

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state mark-resighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982?2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.

Lost in search: (Mal-)adaptation to probabilistic decision environments in children and adults.

PubMed

Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

2016-02-01

Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103 adults' (age range: 21-22 years) search behaviors and decisions under different probability dispersions (.17; .33, .83 vs. .50, .67, .83) and constraint conditions (instructions to limit search: yes vs. no). All age groups limited their depth of search when instructed to do so and when probability dispersion was high (range: .17-.83). Unlike adults, children failed to use probabilities as weights for their searches, which were largely not systematic. When examining choices, however, elementary school children (unlike preschoolers) systematically used probabilities as weights in their decisions. This suggests that an intuitive understanding of probabilities and the capacity to use them as weights during integration is not a sufficient condition for applying simple selective search strategies that place one's focus on weight distributions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

Validation of a polygenic risk score for dementia in black and white individuals

PubMed Central

Marden, Jessica R; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria

2014-01-01

Objective To determine whether a polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease (AD) predicts dementia probability and memory functioning in non-Hispanic black (NHB) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) participants from a sample not used in previous genome-wide association studies. Methods Non-Hispanic white and NHB Health and Retirement Study (HRS) participants provided genetic information and either a composite memory score (n = 10,401) or a dementia probability score (n = 7690). Dementia probability score was estimated for participants' age 65+ from 2006 to 2010, while memory score was available for participants age 50+. We calculated AD genetic risk scores (AD-GRS) based on 10 polymorphisms confirmed to predict AD, weighting alleles by beta coefficients reported in AlzGene meta-analyses. We used pooled logistic regression to estimate the association of the AD-GRS with dementia probability and generalized linear models to estimate its effect on memory score. Results Each 0.10 unit change in the AD-GRS was associated with larger relative effects on dementia among NHW aged 65+ (OR = 2.22; 95% CI: 1.79, 2.74; P < 0.001) than NHB (OR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.77; P = 0.047), although additive effect estimates were similar. Each 0.10 unit change in the AD-GRS was associated with a −0.07 (95% CI: −0.09, −0.05; P < 0.001) SD difference in memory score among NHW aged 50+, but no significant differences among NHB (β = −0.01; 95% CI: −0.04, 0.01; P = 0.546). [Correction added on 29 July 2014, after first online publication: confidence intervalshave been amended.] The estimated effect of the GRS was significantly smaller among NHB than NHW (P < 0.05) for both outcomes. Conclusion This analysis provides evidence for differential relative effects of the GRS on dementia probability and memory score among NHW and NHB in a new, national data set. PMID:25328845

AUDIT-C scores as a scaled marker of mean daily drinking, alcohol use disorder severity, and probability of alcohol dependence in a U.S. general population sample of drinkers.

PubMed

Rubinsky, Anna D; Dawson, Deborah A; Williams, Emily C; Kivlahan, Daniel R; Bradley, Katharine A

2013-08-01

Brief alcohol screening questionnaires are increasingly used to identify alcohol misuse in routine care, but clinicians also need to assess the level of consumption and the severity of misuse so that appropriate intervention can be offered. Information provided by a patient's alcohol screening score might provide a practical tool for assessing the level of consumption and severity of misuse. This post hoc analysis of data from the 2001 to 2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) included 26,546 U.S. adults who reported drinking in the past year and answered additional questions about their consumption, including Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption questionnaire (AUDIT-C) alcohol screening. Linear or logistic regression models and postestimation methods were used to estimate mean daily drinking, the number of endorsed alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria ("AUD severity"), and the probability of alcohol dependence associated with each individual AUDIT-C score (1 to 12), after testing for effect modification by gender and age. Among eligible past-year drinkers, mean daily drinking, AUD severity, and the probability of alcohol dependence increased exponentially across increasing AUDIT-C scores. Mean daily drinking ranged from < 0.1 to 18.0 drinks/d, AUD severity ranged from < 0.1 to 5.1 endorsed AUD criteria, and probability of alcohol dependence ranged from < 1 to 65% across scores 1 to 12. AUD severity increased more steeply across AUDIT-C scores among women than men. Both AUD severity and mean daily drinking increased more steeply across AUDIT-C scores among younger versus older age groups. Results of this study could be used to estimate patient-specific consumption and severity based on age, gender, and alcohol screening score. This information could be integrated into electronic decision support systems to help providers estimate and provide feedback about patient-specific risks and identify those patients most likely to benefit from further diagnostic assessment. Copyright © 2013 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hadley, G.L.; Rotella, J.J.; Garrott, R.A.; Nichols, J.D.

2006-01-01

Summary 1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark?recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD =1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean =4?5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates =4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Targeting the probability versus cost of feared outcomes in public speaking anxiety.

PubMed

Nelson, Elizabeth A; Deacon, Brett J; Lickel, James J; Sy, Jennifer T

2010-04-01

Cognitive-behavioral theory suggests that social phobia is maintained, in part, by overestimates of the probability and cost of negative social events. Indeed, empirically supported cognitive-behavioral treatments directly target these cognitive biases through the use of in vivo exposure or behavioral experiments. While cognitive-behavioral theories and treatment protocols emphasize the importance of targeting probability and cost biases in the reduction of social anxiety, few studies have examined specific techniques for reducing probability and cost bias, and thus the relative efficacy of exposure to the probability versus cost of negative social events is unknown. In the present study, 37 undergraduates with high public speaking anxiety were randomly assigned to a single-session intervention designed to reduce either the perceived probability or the perceived cost of negative outcomes associated with public speaking. Compared to participants in the probability treatment condition, those in the cost treatment condition demonstrated significantly greater improvement on measures of public speaking anxiety and cost estimates for negative social events. The superior efficacy of the cost treatment condition was mediated by greater treatment-related changes in social cost estimates. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Probability of reduced renal function after contrast-enhanced CT: a model based on serum creatinine level, patient age, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

PubMed

Herts, Brian R; Schneider, Erika; Obuchowski, Nancy; Poggio, Emilio; Jain, Anil; Baker, Mark E

2009-08-01

The objectives of our study were to develop a model to predict the probability of reduced renal function after outpatient contrast-enhanced CT (CECT)--based on patient age, sex, and race and on serum creatinine level before CT or directly based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) before CT--and to determine the relationship between patients with changes in creatinine level that characterize contrast-induced nephropathy and patients with reduced GFR after CECT. Of 5,187 outpatients who underwent CECT, 963 (18.6%) had serum creatinine levels obtained within 6 months before and 4 days after CECT. The estimated GFR was calculated before and after CT using the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. Pre-CT serum creatinine level, age, race, sex, and pre-CT estimated GFR were tested using multiple-variable logistic regression models to determine the probability of having an estimated GFR of < 60 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) after CECT. Two thirds of the patients were used to create and one third to test the models. We also determined discordance between patients who met standard definitions of contrast-induced nephropathy and those with a reduced estimated GFR after CECT. Significant (p < 0.002) predictors for a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were age, race, sex, pre-CT serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR. Sex, serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR were significant factors (p < 0.001) for predicting a post-CT estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). The probability is [exp(y) / (1 + exp(y))], where y = 6.21 - (0.10 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and y = 3.66 - (0.087 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A discrepancy between those who met contrast-induced nephropathy criteria by creatinine changes and those with a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was detected in 208 of the 963 patients (21.6%). The probability of a reduced estimated GFR after CECT can be predicted by the pre-CT estimated GFR using the four-variable MDRD equation. Furthermore, standard criteria for contrast-induced nephropathy are poor predictors of poor renal function after CECT. Criteria need to be established for what is an acceptable risk to manage patients undergoing CECT.

The estimated lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Dunne, Eileen F; Hariri, Susan; Markowitz, Lauri E

2014-11-01

Estimates of the lifetime probability of acquiring human papillomavirus (HPV) can help to quantify HPV incidence, illustrate how common HPV infection is, and highlight the importance of HPV vaccination. We developed a simple model, based primarily on the distribution of lifetime numbers of sex partners across the population and the per-partnership probability of acquiring HPV, to estimate the lifetime probability of acquiring HPV in the United States in the time frame before HPV vaccine availability. We estimated the average lifetime probability of acquiring HPV among those with at least 1 opposite sex partner to be 84.6% (range, 53.6%-95.0%) for women and 91.3% (range, 69.5%-97.7%) for men. Under base case assumptions, more than 80% of women and men acquire HPV by age 45 years. Our results are consistent with estimates in the existing literature suggesting a high lifetime probability of HPV acquisition and are supported by cohort studies showing high cumulative HPV incidence over a relatively short period, such as 3 to 5 years.

Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.

PubMed

Povoroznyuk, V V; Grygorieva, N V; Kanis, J A; Ev, McCloskey; Johansson, H; Harvey, N C; Korzh, M O; Strafun, S S; Vaida, V M; Klymovytsky, F V; Vlasenko, R O; Forosenko, V S

2017-12-01

A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

PubMed

Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

2015-05-10

Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of the probability of success in petroleum exploration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.C.

1977-01-01

A probabilistic model for oil exploration can be developed by assessing the conditional relationship between perceived geologic variables and the subsequent discovery of petroleum. Such a model includes two probabilistic components, the first reflecting the association between a geologic condition (structural closure, for example) and the occurrence of oil, and the second reflecting the uncertainty associated with the estimation of geologic variables in areas of limited control. Estimates of the conditional relationship between geologic variables and subsequent production can be found by analyzing the exploration history of a "training area" judged to be geologically similar to the exploration area. The geologic variables are assessed over the training area using an historical subset of the available data, whose density corresponds to the present control density in the exploration area. The success or failure of wells drilled in the training area subsequent to the time corresponding to the historical subset provides empirical estimates of the probability of success conditional upon geology. Uncertainty in perception of geological conditions may be estimated from the distribution of errors made in geologic assessment using the historical subset of control wells. These errors may be expressed as a linear function of distance from available control. Alternatively, the uncertainty may be found by calculating the semivariogram of the geologic variables used in the analysis: the two procedures will yield approximately equivalent results. The empirical probability functions may then be transferred to the exploration area and used to estimate the likelihood of success of specific exploration plays. These estimates will reflect both the conditional relationship between the geological variables used to guide exploration and the uncertainty resulting from lack of control. The technique is illustrated with case histories from the mid-Continent area of the U.S.A. ?? 1977 Plenum Publishing Corp.

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

1988-01-01

A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the most probable age. The statistical variability of the ML-estimated calibration curve is assessed by a Monte Carlo method in which simulated data sets repeatedly are drawn from the distributional specification; calibration parameters are reestimated for each such simulation in order to assess their statistical variability. Several examples are used for illustration. The age of undated soils in a related setting may be estimated from the soil data using the fitted calibration curve. A second simulation to assess age estimate variability is described and applied to the examples. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Disparity between online and offline tests in accelerated aging tests of LED lamps under electric stress.

PubMed

Wang, Yao; Jing, Lei; Ke, Hong-Liang; Hao, Jian; Gao, Qun; Wang, Xiao-Xun; Sun, Qiang; Xu, Zhi-Jun

2016-09-20

The accelerated aging tests under electric stress for one type of LED lamp are conducted, and the differences between online and offline tests of the degradation of luminous flux are studied in this paper. The transformation of the two test modes is achieved with an adjustable AC voltage stabilized power source. Experimental results show that the exponential fitting of the luminous flux degradation in online tests possesses a higher fitting degree for most lamps, and the degradation rate of the luminous flux by online tests is always lower than that by offline tests. Bayes estimation and Weibull distribution are used to calculate the failure probabilities under the accelerated voltages, and then the reliability of the lamps under rated voltage of 220 V is estimated by use of the inverse power law model. Results show that the relative error of the lifetime estimation by offline tests increases as the failure probability decreases, and it cannot be neglected when the failure probability is less than 1%. The relative errors of lifetime estimation are 7.9%, 5.8%, 4.2%, and 3.5%, at the failure probabilities of 0.1%, 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.

The Probable Ages of Asteroid Families

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, A. W.

1993-01-01

There has been considerable debate recently over the ages of the Hirayama families, and in particular if some of the families are very oung(u) It is a straightforward task to estimate the characteristic time of a collision between a body of a given diameter, d_o, by another body of diameter greater of equal to d_1. What is less straightforward is to estimate the critical diameter ratio, d_1/d_o, above which catastrophic disruption occurs, from which one could infer probable ages of the Hirayama families, by knowing the diameter of the parent body, d_o. One can gain some insight into the probable value of d_1/d_o, and of the likely ages of existing families, from the plot below. I have computed the characteristic time between collisions in the asteroid belt of a size ratio greater of equal to d_1/d_o, for 4 sizes of target asteroids, d_o. The solid curves to the lower right are the characteristic times for a single object...

The Cumulative Probability of Arrest by Age 28 Years in the United States by Disability Status, Race/Ethnicity, and Gender.

PubMed

McCauley, Erin J

2017-12-01

To estimate the cumulative probability (c) of arrest by age 28 years in the United States by disability status, race/ethnicity, and gender. I estimated cumulative probabilities through birth cohort life tables with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997. Estimates demonstrated that those with disabilities have a higher cumulative probability of arrest (c = 42.65) than those without (c = 29.68). The risk was disproportionately spread across races/ethnicities, with Blacks with disabilities experiencing the highest cumulative probability of arrest (c = 55.17) and Whites without disabilities experiencing the lowest (c = 27.55). Racial/ethnic differences existed by gender as well. There was a similar distribution of disability types across race/ethnicity, suggesting that the racial/ethnic differences in arrest may stem from racial/ethnic inequalities as opposed to differential distribution of disability types. The experience of arrest for those with disabilities was higher than expected. Police officers should understand how disabilities may affect compliance and other behaviors, and likewise how implicit bias and structural racism may affect reactions and actions of officers and the systems they work within in ways that create inequities.

A method to estimate stellar ages from kinematical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida-Fernandes, F.; Rocha-Pinto, H. J.

2018-05-01

We present a method to build a probability density function (PDF) for the age of a star based on its peculiar velocities U, V, and W and its orbital eccentricity. The sample used in this work comes from the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) that contains the spatial velocities, orbital eccentricities, and isochronal ages for about 14 000 stars. Using the GCS stars, we fitted the parameters that describe the relations between the distributions of kinematical properties and age. This parametrization allows us to obtain an age probability from the kinematical data. From this age PDF, we estimate an individual average age for the star using the most likely age and the expected age. We have obtained the stellar age PDF for the age of 9102 stars from the GCS and have shown that the distribution of individual ages derived from our method is in good agreement with the distribution of isochronal ages. We also observe a decline in the mean metallicity with our ages for stars younger than 7 Gyr, similar to the one observed for isochronal ages. This method can be useful for the estimation of rough stellar ages for those stars that fall in areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram where isochrones are tightly crowded. As an example of this method, we estimate the age of Trappist-1, which is a M8V star, obtaining the age of t(UVW) = 12.50(+0.29 - 6.23) Gyr.

Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.

PubMed

Barrouillet, Pierre; Gauffroy, Caroline

2015-04-01

Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation, the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P(if p then q)=P(q|p). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crash probability estimation via quantifying driver hazard perception.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Zheng, Yang; Wang, Jianqiang; Kodaka, Kenji; Li, Keqiang

2018-07-01

Crash probability estimation is an important method to predict the potential reduction of crash probability contributed by forward collision avoidance technologies (FCATs). In this study, we propose a practical approach to estimate crash probability, which combines a field operational test and numerical simulations of a typical rear-end crash model. To consider driver hazard perception characteristics, we define a novel hazard perception measure, called as driver risk response time, by considering both time-to-collision (TTC) and driver braking response to impending collision risk in a near-crash scenario. Also, we establish a driving database under mixed Chinese traffic conditions based on a CMBS (Collision Mitigation Braking Systems)-equipped vehicle. Applying the crash probability estimation in this database, we estimate the potential decrease in crash probability owing to use of CMBS. A comparison of the results with CMBS on and off shows a 13.7% reduction of crash probability in a typical rear-end near-crash scenario with a one-second delay of driver's braking response. These results indicate that CMBS is positive in collision prevention, especially in the case of inattentive drivers or ole drivers. The proposed crash probability estimation offers a practical way for evaluating the safety benefits in the design and testing of FCATs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

2004-01-01

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Metocean design parameter estimation for fixed platform based on copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Jinjin; Yin, Qilin; Dong, Sheng

2017-08-01

Considering the dependent relationship among wave height, wind speed, and current velocity, we construct novel trivariate joint probability distributions via Archimedean copula functions. Total 30-year data of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity in the Bohai Sea are hindcast and sampled for case study. Four kinds of distributions, namely, Gumbel distribution, lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Pearson Type III distribution, are candidate models for marginal distributions of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity. The Pearson Type III distribution is selected as the optimal model. Bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of these environmental conditions are established based on four bivariate and trivariate Archimedean copulas, namely, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Ali-Mikhail-Haq copulas. These joint probability models can maximize marginal information and the dependence among the three variables. The design return values of these three variables can be obtained by three methods: univariate probability, conditional probability, and joint probability. The joint return periods of different load combinations are estimated by the proposed models. Platform responses (including base shear, overturning moment, and deck displacement) are further calculated. For the same return period, the design values of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity obtained by the conditional and joint probability models are much smaller than those by univariate probability. Considering the dependence among variables, the multivariate probability distributions provide close design parameters to actual sea state for ocean platform design.

Parental Predictions and Perceptions Regarding Long-Term Childhood Obesity-Related Health Risks

PubMed Central

Wright, Davene R.; Lozano, Paula; Dawson-Hahn, Elizabeth; Christakis, Dimitri A.; Haaland, Wren; Basu, Anirban

2016-01-01

Objectives To assess how parents perceive long-term risks for developing obesity-related chronic health conditions. Methods A web-based nationally representative survey was administered to 502 U.S. parents with a 5–12 year old child. Parents reported whether their child was most likely to be at a healthy weight or overweight, and the probability that their child would develop hypertension, heart disease, depression, or type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Responses of parents of children with overweight and obesity were compared to those of healthy weight children using multivariate models. Results The survey had an overall response rate of 39.2%. The mean (SD) unadjusted parent predicted health risks were 15.4% (17.7%), 11.2% (14.7%), 12.5% (16.2%), and 12.1% (16.1%) for hypertension, heart disease, depression, and diabetes, respectively. Despite under-perceiving their child’s current BMI class, parents of children with obesity estimate their children to be at greater risk for obesity-related health conditions than parents of healthy weight children by 5–6 percentage points. Having a family history of a chronic disease, higher quality of care, and older parent age were also significant predictors of estimating higher risk probabilities. Conclusions Despite evidence that parents of overweight children may not perceive these children as being overweight, parents unexpectedly estimate greater future risk of weight-related health conditions for these children. Focusing communication about weight on screening for and reducing the risk of weight-related diseases may prove useful in engaging parents and children in weight management PMID:26875508

Evaluating species richness: biased ecological inference results from spatial heterogeneity in species detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNew, Lance B.; Handel, Colleen M.

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of species richness are necessary to test predictions of ecological theory and evaluate biodiversity for conservation purposes. However, species richness is difficult to measure in the field because some species will almost always be overlooked due to their cryptic nature or the observer's failure to perceive their cues. Common measures of species richness that assume consistent observability across species are inviting because they may require only single counts of species at survey sites. Single-visit estimation methods ignore spatial and temporal variation in species detection probabilities related to survey or site conditions that may confound estimates of species richness. We used simulated and empirical data to evaluate the bias and precision of raw species counts, the limiting forms of jackknife and Chao estimators, and multi-species occupancy models when estimating species richness to evaluate whether the choice of estimator can affect inferences about the relationships between environmental conditions and community size under variable detection processes. Four simulated scenarios with realistic and variable detection processes were considered. Results of simulations indicated that (1) raw species counts were always biased low, (2) single-visit jackknife and Chao estimators were significantly biased regardless of detection process, (3) multispecies occupancy models were more precise and generally less biased than the jackknife and Chao estimators, and (4) spatial heterogeneity resulting from the effects of a site covariate on species detection probabilities had significant impacts on the inferred relationships between species richness and a spatially explicit environmental condition. For a real dataset of bird observations in northwestern Alaska, the four estimation methods produced different estimates of local species richness, which severely affected inferences about the effects of shrubs on local avian richness. Overall, our results indicate that neglecting the effects of site covariates on species detection probabilities may lead to significant bias in estimation of species richness, as well as the inferred relationships between community size and environmental covariates.

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate nitrate contamination of production zone groundwater in the Central Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ransom, K.; Nolan, B. T.; Faunt, C. C.; Bell, A.; Gronberg, J.; Traum, J.; Wheeler, D. C.; Rosecrans, C.; Belitz, K.; Eberts, S.; Harter, T.

2016-12-01

A hybrid, non-linear, machine learning statistical model was developed within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface in the Central Valley, California. A database of 213 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and county scale nitrogen mass balance, historical and current landuse, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6,000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The machine learning method, gradient boosting machine (GBM) was used to screen predictor variables and rank them in order of importance in relation to the groundwater nitrate measurements. The top five most important predictor variables included oxidation/reduction characteristics, historical field scale nitrogen mass balance, climate, and depth to 60 year old water. Twenty-two variables were selected for the final model and final model errors for log-transformed hold-out data were R squared of 0.45 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.124. Modeled mean groundwater age was tested separately for error improvement in the model and when included decreased model RMSE by 0.5% compared to the same model without age and by 0.20% compared to the model with all 213 variables. 1D and 2D partial plots were examined to determine how variables behave individually and interact in the model. Some variables behaved as expected: log nitrate decreased with increasing probability of anoxic conditions and depth to 60 year old water, generally decreased with increasing natural landuse surrounding wells and increasing mean groundwater age, generally increased with increased minimum depth to high water table and with increased base flow index value. Other variables exhibited much more erratic or noisy behavior in the model making them more difficult to interpret but highlighting the usefulness of the non-linear machine learning method. 2D interaction plots show probability of anoxic groundwater conditions largely control estimated nitrate concentrations compared to the other predictors.

Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Katherine M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

2015-01-01

Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability. PMID:25775182

Age-specific survival of reintroduced swift fox in Badlands National Park and surrounding lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sasmal, Indrani; Klaver, Robert W.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Schroeder, Greg M.

2016-01-01

In 2003, a reintroduction program was initiated at Badlands National Park (BNP), South Dakota, USA, with swift foxes (Vulpes velox) translocated from Colorado and Wyoming, USA, as part of a restoration effort to recover declining swift fox populations throughout its historical range. Estimates of age-specific survival are necessary to evaluate the potential for population growth of reintroduced populations. We used 7 years (2003–2009) of capture–recapture data of 243 pups, 29 yearlings, and 69 adult swift foxes at BNP and the surrounding area to construct Cormack–Jolly–Seber model estimates of apparent survival within a capture–mark–recapture framework using Program MARK. The best model for estimating recapture probabilities included no differences among age classes, greater recapture probabilities during early years of the monitoring effort than later years, and variation among spring, winter, and summer. Our top ranked survival model indicated pup survival differed from that of yearlings and adults and varied by month and year. The apparent annual survival probability of pups (0.47, SE = 0.10) in our study area was greater than the apparent annual survival probability of yearlings and adults (0.27, SE = 0.08). Our results indicate low survival probabilities for a reintroduced population of swift foxes in the BNP and surrounding areas. Management of reintroduced populations and future reintroductions of swift foxes should consider the effects of relative low annual survival on population demography.

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

PubMed

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

2008-01-01

Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

Impact of five modifiable lifestyle habits on the probability of cancer occurrence in a Japanese population-based cohort: results from the JPHC study.

PubMed

Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2013-11-01

The present work aims to provide 10-year estimates of the probability of cancer occurrence in the Japanese population based on age, sex, and the pattern of adherence to five healthy lifestyle habits. The study population consisted of 74,935 participants in the Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study (aged 45 to 74 years) who answered a 5-year follow-up questionnaire about various lifestyle habits between 1995 and 1999. The relationship between five previously identified healthy lifestyle habits (never smoking, moderate or no alcohol consumption, adequate physical activity, moderate salt intake, and appropriate body mass index) and cancer occurrence was assessed using a sex-specific parametric survival model. Compared to individuals not adhering to any of the five habits, never-smoking men had a nearly 30% reduction in the 10-year probability of cancer occurrence (e.g., 20.5% vs. 28.7% at age 70), and never-smoking women had a 16% reduction (e.g., 10.5% vs. 12.5% at age 70). Adherence to all five habits was estimated to reduce the 10-year probability of cancer occurrence by 1/2 in men and 1/3 in women. By quantifying the impact of lifestyle habits on the probability of cancer occurrence, this study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle improvement. © 2013.

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

Estimating inverse-probability weights for longitudinal data with dropout or truncation: The xtrccipw command.

PubMed

Daza, Eric J; Hudgens, Michael G; Herring, Amy H

Individuals may drop out of a longitudinal study, rendering their outcomes unobserved but still well defined. However, they may also undergo truncation (for example, death), beyond which their outcomes are no longer meaningful. Kurland and Heagerty (2005, Biostatistics 6: 241-258) developed a method to conduct regression conditioning on nontruncation, that is, regression conditioning on continuation (RCC), for longitudinal outcomes that are monotonically missing at random (for example, because of dropout). This method first estimates the probability of dropout among continuing individuals to construct inverse-probability weights (IPWs), then fits generalized estimating equations (GEE) with these IPWs. In this article, we present the xtrccipw command, which can both estimate the IPWs required by RCC and then use these IPWs in a GEE estimator by calling the glm command from within xtrccipw. In the absence of truncation, the xtrccipw command can also be used to run a weighted GEE analysis. We demonstrate the xtrccipw command by analyzing an example dataset and the original Kurland and Heagerty (2005) data. We also use xtrccipw to illustrate some empirical properties of RCC through a simulation study.

Estimating inverse-probability weights for longitudinal data with dropout or truncation: The xtrccipw command

PubMed Central

Hudgens, Michael G.; Herring, Amy H.

2017-01-01

Individuals may drop out of a longitudinal study, rendering their outcomes unobserved but still well defined. However, they may also undergo truncation (for example, death), beyond which their outcomes are no longer meaningful. Kurland and Heagerty (2005, Biostatistics 6: 241–258) developed a method to conduct regression conditioning on nontruncation, that is, regression conditioning on continuation (RCC), for longitudinal outcomes that are monotonically missing at random (for example, because of dropout). This method first estimates the probability of dropout among continuing individuals to construct inverse-probability weights (IPWs), then fits generalized estimating equations (GEE) with these IPWs. In this article, we present the xtrccipw command, which can both estimate the IPWs required by RCC and then use these IPWs in a GEE estimator by calling the glm command from within xtrccipw. In the absence of truncation, the xtrccipw command can also be used to run a weighted GEE analysis. We demonstrate the xtrccipw command by analyzing an example dataset and the original Kurland and Heagerty (2005) data. We also use xtrccipw to illustrate some empirical properties of RCC through a simulation study. PMID:29755297

Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program providesmore » a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).« less

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Antonino, Matteo; Neve, Viviana; Amoruso, Annabianca; Crucinio, Nicola; Di Leo, Alfredo; Barone, Michele

2015-10-01

Survival estimates are commonly reported as survival from the first observation, but future survival probability changes based on the survival time already accumulated after therapy, otherwise known as conditional survival (CS). The aim of the study was to describe CS according to different prognostic variables in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Data on 125 very early/early HCC patients treated with RFA between 1999 and 2007 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed by means of Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. The 5-year CS was calculated with stratification by several predictors for patients who had already survived up to 5 years from diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) was 72 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-86). Age, Child-Pugh (CP), α-fetoprotein (AFP), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score and type of recurrence (early vs late) were significant predictors of OS. The 5-year CS rates of the entire study cohort assessed at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years from the treatment were 49%, 48%, 30% and 34%, respectively. Subgroup analysis confirmed age and CP as significant predictors of CS at all time points, while the CS of subgroups stratified by AFP and CLIP did not differ significantly from the 3rd year after RFA onward, as more advanced patients had probably escaped early recurrence. CS analysis showed that the impact of different variables influencing OS is not linear over time after RFA. Information derived from the study can improve the current management of HCC patients. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of cancer in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodules: A multi-institutional study.

PubMed

She, Yunlang; Zhao, Lilan; Dai, Chenyang; Ren, Yijiu; Jiang, Gening; Xie, Huikang; Zhu, Huiyuan; Sun, Xiwen; Yang, Ping; Chen, Yongbing; Shi, Shunbin; Shi, Weirong; Yu, Bing; Xie, Dong; Chen, Chang

2017-11-01

To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN). A primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The mean age of the cohort was 58.9 ± 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability. We developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inter-Population Movements of Steller Sea Lions in Alaska with Implications for Population Separation

PubMed Central

Jemison, Lauri A.; Pendleton, Grey W.; Fritz, Lowell W.; Hastings, Kelly K.; Maniscalco, John M.; Trites, Andrew W.; Gelatt, Tom S.

2013-01-01

Genetic studies and differing population trends support the separation of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) into a western distinct population segment (WDPS) and an eastern DPS (EDPS) with the dividing line between populations at 144° W. Despite little exchange for thousands of years, the gap between the breeding ranges narrowed during the past 15–30 years with the formation of new rookeries near the DPS boundary. We analyzed >22,000 sightings of 4,172 sea lions branded as pups in each DPS from 2000–2010 to estimate probabilities of a sea lion born in one DPS being seen within the range of the other DPS (either ‘West’ or ‘East’). Males from both populations regularly traveled across the DPS boundary; probabilities were highest at ages 2–5 and for males born in Prince William Sound and southern Southeast Alaska. The probability of WDPS females being in the East at age 5 was 0.067 but 0 for EDPS females which rarely traveled to the West. Prince William Sound-born females had high probabilities of being in the East during breeding and non-breeding seasons. We present strong evidence that WDPS females have permanently emigrated to the East, reproducing at two ‘mixing zone’ rookeries. We documented breeding bulls that traveled >6,500 km round trip from their natal rookery in southern Alaska to the northern Bering Sea and central Aleutian Islands and back within one year. WDPS animals began moving East in the 1990s, following steep population declines in the central Gulf of Alaska. Results of our study, and others documenting high survival and rapid population growth in northern Southeast Alaska suggest that conditions in this mixing zone region have been optimal for sea lions. It is unclear whether eastward movement across the DPS boundary is due to less-optimal conditions in the West or a reflection of favorable conditions in the East. PMID:23940543

Inter-population movements of steller sea lions in Alaska with implications for population separation.

PubMed

Jemison, Lauri A; Pendleton, Grey W; Fritz, Lowell W; Hastings, Kelly K; Maniscalco, John M; Trites, Andrew W; Gelatt, Tom S

2013-01-01

Genetic studies and differing population trends support the separation of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) into a western distinct population segment (WDPS) and an eastern DPS (EDPS) with the dividing line between populations at 144° W. Despite little exchange for thousands of years, the gap between the breeding ranges narrowed during the past 15-30 years with the formation of new rookeries near the DPS boundary. We analyzed >22,000 sightings of 4,172 sea lions branded as pups in each DPS from 2000-2010 to estimate probabilities of a sea lion born in one DPS being seen within the range of the other DPS (either 'West' or 'East'). Males from both populations regularly traveled across the DPS boundary; probabilities were highest at ages 2-5 and for males born in Prince William Sound and southern Southeast Alaska. The probability of WDPS females being in the East at age 5 was 0.067 but 0 for EDPS females which rarely traveled to the West. Prince William Sound-born females had high probabilities of being in the East during breeding and non-breeding seasons. We present strong evidence that WDPS females have permanently emigrated to the East, reproducing at two 'mixing zone' rookeries. We documented breeding bulls that traveled >6,500 km round trip from their natal rookery in southern Alaska to the northern Bering Sea and central Aleutian Islands and back within one year. WDPS animals began moving East in the 1990s, following steep population declines in the central Gulf of Alaska. Results of our study, and others documenting high survival and rapid population growth in northern Southeast Alaska suggest that conditions in this mixing zone region have been optimal for sea lions. It is unclear whether eastward movement across the DPS boundary is due to less-optimal conditions in the West or a reflection of favorable conditions in the East.

Demographic patterns of Ferocactus cylindraceus in relation to substrate age and grazing history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

1997-01-01

Three subpopulations of Ferocactus cylindraceus, a short-columnar cactus of the Sonoran and Mojave deserts, were sampled in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA, at sites representing a range of substrate ages and different grazing histories. Age-height relations were determined from annual growth, then used to estimate probable year of establishment for each cohort. Eight years between 1944 and 1992 were especially favorable for establishment. Six of these 8 years coincided with El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, indicating that as for many woody plants in arid regions, somewhat unusual climatic conditions are necessary if populations are to replace themselves. Comparison of age structures showed that established and developing populations have somewhat different dynamics in that the rate of population increase was slowest on the youngest terrace. On the ancient terraces, about half the plants were less than 25 years old. Plants older than 40 years were few; however the oldest plants in the study (about 49 years) grew on the ancient terraces. On the recent terrace, 76% of the subpopulation was 25 years or younger, and the oldest living plant was about 36 years of age. The age structures of subpopulations on grazed and ungrazed sites also differed markedly. On ungrazed sites, subpopulations were more or less at equilibrium, with enough young plants to replace old ones as they died. In contrast, the subpopulation on the grazed site was in a state of marked disequilibrium. Grazing before 1981 largely extirpated a palatable subshrub that was probably an important nurse plant. Until the shrub population at Indian Canyon recovers from decades of burro grazing, a rebound in E cylindraceus establishment is not to be expected.

Estimating probabilities of reservoir storage for the upper Delaware River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hirsch, Robert M.

1981-01-01

A technique for estimating conditional probabilities of reservoir system storage is described and applied to the upper Delaware River Basin. The results indicate that there is a 73 percent probability that the three major New York City reservoirs (Pepacton, Cannonsville, and Neversink) would be full by June 1, 1981, and only a 9 percent probability that storage would return to the ' drought warning ' sector of the operations curve sometime in the next year. In contrast, if restrictions are lifted and there is an immediate return to normal operating policies, the probability of the reservoir system being full by June 1 is 37 percent and the probability that storage would return to the ' drought warning ' sector in the next year is 30 percent. (USGS)

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

Cost of Crashes Related to Road Conditions, United States, 2006

PubMed Central

Zaloshnja, Eduard; Miller, Ted R.

2009-01-01

This is the first study to estimate the cost of crashes related to road conditions in the U.S. To model the probability that road conditions contributed to the involvement of a vehicle in the crash, we used 2000–03 Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) data, the only dataset that provides detailed information whether road conditions contributed to crash occurrence. We applied the logistic regression results to a costed national crash dataset in order to calculate the probability that road conditions contributed to the involvement of a vehicle in each crash. In crashes where someone was moderately to seriously injured (AIS-2-6) in a vehicle that harmfully impacted a large tree or medium or large non-breakaway pole, or if the first harmful event was collision with a bridge, we changed the calculated probability of being road-related to 1. We used the state distribution of costs of fatal crashes where road conditions contributed to crash occurrence or severity to estimate the respective state distribution of non-fatal crash costs. The estimated comprehensive cost of traffic crashes where road conditions contributed to crash occurrence or severity was $217.5 billion in 2006. This represented 43.6% of the total comprehensive crash cost. The large share of crash costs related to road design and conditions underlines the importance of these factors in highway safety. Road conditions are largely controllable. Road maintenance and upgrading can prevent crashes and reduce injury severity. PMID:20184840

Inequality in oral health related to early and later life social conditions: a study of elderly in Norway and Sweden.

PubMed

Gülcan, Ferda; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven; Lie, Stein Atle; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

2015-02-10

A life course perspective recognizes influences of socially patterned exposures on oral health across the life span. This study assessed the influence of early and later life social conditions on tooth loss and oral impacts on daily performances (OIDP) of people aged 65 and 70 years. Whether social inequalities in oral health changed after the usual age of retirement was also examined. In accordance with "the latent effect life course model", it was hypothesized that adverse early-life social conditions increase the risk of subsequent tooth loss and impaired OIDP, independent of later-life social conditions. Data were obtained from two cohorts studies conducted in Sweden and Norway. The 2007 and 2012 waves of the surveys were used for the present study. Early-life social conditions were measured in terms of gender, education and country of birth, and later-life social conditions were assessed by working status, marital status and size of social network. Logistic regression and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to analyse the data. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to adjust estimates for missing responses and loss to follow-up. Early-life social conditions contributed to tooth loss and OIDP in each survey year and both countries independent of later-life social conditions. Lower education correlated positively with tooth loss, but did not influence OIDP. Foreign country of birth correlated positively with oral impacts in Sweden only. Later-life social conditions were the strongest predictors of tooth loss and OIDP across survey years and countries. GEE revealed significant interactions between social network and survey year, and between marital status and survey year on tooth loss. The results confirmed the latent effect life course model in that early and later life social conditions had independent effects on tooth loss and OIDP among the elderly in Norway and Sweden. Between age 65 and 70, inequalities in tooth loss related to marital status declined, and inequalities related to social network increased.

Estimating distributions with increasing failure rate in an imperfect repair model.

PubMed

Kvam, Paul H; Singh, Harshinder; Whitaker, Lyn R

2002-03-01

A failed system is repaired minimally if after failure, it is restored to the working condition of an identical system of the same age. We extend the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a system's lifetime distribution function to test units that are known to have an increasing failure rate. Such items comprise a significant portion of working components in industry. The order-restricted MLE is shown to be consistent. Similar results hold for the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model, which dictates that a failed component is repaired perfectly with some unknown probability, and is otherwise repaired minimally. The estimators derived are motivated and illustrated by failure data in the nuclear industry. Failure times for groups of emergency diesel generators and motor-driven pumps are analyzed using the order-restricted methods. The order-restricted estimators are consistent and show distinct differences from the ordinary MLEs. Simulation results suggest significant improvement in reliability estimation is available in many cases when component failure data exhibit the IFR property.

Agents affecting health of mother and child in a rural area of Kenya. III. The epidemiology of measles.

PubMed

Voorhoeve, A M; Muller, A S; Schulpen, T W; Gemert, W; Valkenburg, H A; Ensering, H E

1977-12-01

Between April 1974 and March 1976 surveillance of measles has been conducted by 12 fieldworkers making fortnightly home visits among a total population of 24,000 living in nearly 4000 households scattered in variable density throughout an area of 87 sq km in the northern division of the Machakos district, Kenya. The diagnosis of measles was verified by one of the project's physicians according to standardized procedures and was, whenever possible, supported by virus isolation and serum antibody level determination. Because not all reported patients were actually seen during the period of clinical manifestations, the diagnosis remained doubtful in a number of cases. Incidence and mortality figures have been estimated with 95% confidence limits based on the assumption that doubtful cases represent a probability of measles of .33 and probable cases a probability of .67. The estimated attack rate for the susceptible population 0-15 years of age was 13.5%. When related to all children--susceptible or not--the attack rate was highest in the 1-2 years age group (11%). Almost 15% of cases occurred below the age of one year, 1% below 6 months of age and 6% between 6 and 8 months. The estimated case fatality rate was 6.5%, fatality being highest between 1 and 2 years of age. For the age group 0-15 years measles accounted for 16.7% of all deaths. The estimated death rate per 100,000 total population was 113. The epidemiological pattern of measles suggests continuous re-introduction of the measles virus in a dispersed population causing micro-outbreaks of the disease in geographically widely separated spots throughout the year which tends to keep the proportion of susceptibles down and the attack rate during a protracted epidemic relatively low.

Sightability adjustment methods for aerial surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinhorst, R.K.; Samuel, M.D.

1989-01-01

Aerial surveys are routinely conducted to estimate the abundance of wildlife species and the rate of population change. However, sightability of animal groups is acknowledged as a significant source of bias in these estimates. Recent research has focused on the development of sightability models to predict the probability of sighting groups under various conditions. Given such models, we show how sightability can be incorporated into the estimator of population size as a probability of response using standard results from sample surveys. We develop formulas for the cases where the sighting probability must be estimated. An example, using data from a helicopter survey of moose in Alberta (Jacobson, Alberta Oil Sands Research Project Report, 1976), is given to illustrate the technique.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

2004-01-01

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Stochastic approach for an unbiased estimation of the probability of a successful separation in conventional chromatography and sequential elution liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Ennis, Erin J; Foley, Joe P

2016-07-15

A stochastic approach was utilized to estimate the probability of a successful isocratic or gradient separation in conventional chromatography for numbers of sample components, peak capacities, and saturation factors ranging from 2 to 30, 20-300, and 0.017-1, respectively. The stochastic probabilities were obtained under conditions of (i) constant peak width ("gradient" conditions) and (ii) peak width increasing linearly with time ("isocratic/constant N" conditions). The isocratic and gradient probabilities obtained stochastically were compared with the probabilities predicted by Martin et al. [Anal. Chem., 58 (1986) 2200-2207] and Davis and Stoll [J. Chromatogr. A, (2014) 128-142]; for a given number of components and peak capacity the same trend is always observed: probability obtained with the isocratic stochastic approach

Delaying childbearing: effect of age on fecundity and outcome of pregnancy.

PubMed Central

van Noord-Zaadstra, B M; Looman, C W; Alsbach, H; Habbema, J D; te Velde, E R; Karbaat, J

1991-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To study the age of the start of the fall (critical age) in fecundity; the probability of a pregnancy leading to a healthy baby taking into account the age of the woman; and, combining these results, to determine the age dependent probability of getting a healthy baby. DESIGN--Cohort study of all women who had entered a donor insemination programme. SETTING--Two fertility clinics serving a large part of The Netherlands. SUBJECTS--Of 1637 women attending for artificial insemination 751 fulfilled the selection criteria, being married to an azoospermic husband and nulliparous and never having received donor insemination before. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The number of cycles before pregnancy (a positive pregnancy test result) or stopping treatment; and result of the pregnancy (successful outcome). RESULTS--Of the 751 women, 555 became pregnant and 461 had healthy babies. The fall in fecundity was estimated to start at around 31 years (critical age); after 12 cycles the probability of pregnancy in a woman aged greater than 31 was 0.54 compared with 0.74 in a woman aged 20.31. After 24 cycles this difference had decreased (probability of conception 0.75 in women greater than 31 and 0.85 in women 20.31). The probability of having a healthy baby also decreased--by 3.5% a year after the age of 30. Combining both these age effects, the chance of a woman aged 35 having a healthy baby was about half that of a woman aged 25. CONCLUSION--After the age of 31 the probability of conception falls rapidly, but this can be partly compensated for by continuing insemination for more cycles. In addition, the probability of an adverse pregnancy outcome starts to increase at about the same age. PMID:2059713

Overcoming bias in estimating the volume-outcome relationship.

PubMed

Tsai, Alexander C; Votruba, Mark; Bridges, John F P; Cebul, Randall D

2006-02-01

To examine the effect of hospital volume on 30-day mortality for patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) using administrative and clinical data in conventional regression and instrumental variables (IV) estimation models. The primary data consisted of longitudinal information on comorbid conditions, vital signs, clinical status, and laboratory test results for 21,555 Medicare-insured patients aged 65 years and older hospitalized for CHF in northeast Ohio in 1991-1997. The patient was the primary unit of analysis. We fit a linear probability model to the data to assess the effects of hospital volume on patient mortality within 30 days of admission. Both administrative and clinical data elements were included for risk adjustment. Linear distances between patients and hospitals were used to construct the instrument, which was then used to assess the endogeneity of hospital volume. When only administrative data elements were included in the risk adjustment model, the estimated volume-outcome effect was statistically significant (p=.029) but small in magnitude. The estimate was markedly attenuated in magnitude and statistical significance when clinical data were added to the model as risk adjusters (p=.39). IV estimation shifted the estimate in a direction consistent with selective referral, but we were unable to reject the consistency of the linear probability estimates. Use of only administrative data for volume-outcomes research may generate spurious findings. The IV analysis further suggests that conventional estimates of the volume-outcome relationship may be contaminated by selective referral effects. Taken together, our results suggest that efforts to concentrate hospital-based CHF care in high-volume hospitals may not reduce mortality among elderly patients.

Estimating rare events in biochemical systems using conditional sampling.

PubMed

Sundar, V S

2017-01-28

The paper focuses on development of variance reduction strategies to estimate rare events in biochemical systems. Obtaining this probability using brute force Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with the stochastic simulation algorithm (Gillespie's method) is computationally prohibitive. To circumvent this, important sampling tools such as the weighted stochastic simulation algorithm and the doubly weighted stochastic simulation algorithm have been proposed. However, these strategies require an additional step of determining the important region to sample from, which is not straightforward for most of the problems. In this paper, we apply the subset simulation method, developed as a variance reduction tool in the context of structural engineering, to the problem of rare event estimation in biochemical systems. The main idea is that the rare event probability is expressed as a product of more frequent conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities are estimated with high accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations, specifically the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Generating sample realizations of the state vector using the stochastic simulation algorithm is viewed as mapping the discrete-state continuous-time random process to the standard normal random variable vector. This viewpoint opens up the possibility of applying more sophisticated and efficient sampling schemes developed elsewhere to problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The results obtained using the subset simulation method are compared with existing variance reduction strategies for a few benchmark problems, and a satisfactory improvement in computational time is demonstrated.

Prevalence of Untreated Surgical Conditions in Rural Rwanda: A Population-Based Cross-sectional Study in Burera District.

PubMed

Maine, Rebecca G; Linden, Allison F; Riviello, Robert; Kamanzi, Emmanuel; Mody, Gita N; Ntakiyiruta, Georges; Kansayisa, Grace; Ntaganda, Edmond; Niyonkuru, Francine; Mubiligi, Joel M; Mpunga, Tharcisse; Meara, John G; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

2017-12-20

In low- and middle-income countries, community-level surgical epidemiology is largely undefined. Accurate community-level surgical epidemiology is necessary for surgical health systems planning. To determine the prevalence of surgical conditions in Burera District, Northern Province, Rwanda. A cross-sectional study with a 2-stage cluster sample design (at village and household level) was carried out in Burera District in March and May 2012. A team of surgeons randomly sampled 30 villages with probability proportionate to village population size, then sampled 23 households within each village. All available household members were examined. The presence of 10 index surgical conditions (injuries/wounds, hernias/hydroceles, breast masses, neck masses, obstetric fistulas, undescended testes, hypospadias, hydrocephalus, cleft lip/palate, and clubfoot) was determined by physical examination. Prevalence was estimated overall and for each condition. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with surgical conditions, accounting for the complex survey design. Of the 2165 examined individuals, 1215 (56.2%) were female. The prevalence of any surgical condition among all examined individuals was 12% (95% CI, 9.2-14.9%). Half of conditions were hernias/hydroceles (49.6%), and 44% were injuries/wounds. In multivariable analysis, children 5 years or younger had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with married individuals 21 to 35 years of age (reference group) (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.26-4.04; P = .01). The oldest group, people older than 50 years, also had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with the reference group (married, aged >50 years: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.28-4.23; P = .01; unmarried, aged >50 years: OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.02-5.52; P = .06). Unmarried individuals 21 to 35 years of age and unmarried individuals aged 36 to 50 years had higher odds of a surgical condition compared with the reference group (aged 21-35 years: OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.74-3.82; P = .22; aged 36-50 years: OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.29-9.11; P = .02). There was no statistical difference in odds by sex, wealth, education, or travel time to the nearest hospital. The prevalence of surgically treatable conditions in northern Rwanda was considerably higher than previously estimated modeling and surveys in comparable low- and middle-income countries. This surgical backlog must be addressed in health system plans to increase surgical infrastructure and workforce in rural Africa.

The demand for preventive and restorative dental services.

PubMed

Meyerhoefer, Chad D; Zuvekas, Samuel H; Manski, Richard

2014-01-01

Chronic tooth decay is the most common chronic condition in the United States among children ages 5-17 and also affects a large percentage of adults. Oral health conditions are preventable, but less than half of the US population uses dental services annually. We seek to examine the extent to which limited dental coverage and high out-of-pocket costs reduce dental service use by the nonelderly privately insured and uninsured. Using data from the 2001-2006 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and an American Dental Association survey of dental procedure prices, we jointly estimate the probability of using preventive and both basic and major restorative services through a correlated random effects specification that controls for endogeneity. We found that dental coverage increased the probability of preventive care use by 19% and the use of restorative services 11% to 16%. Both conditional and unconditional on dental coverage, the use of dental services was not sensitive to out-of-pocket costs. We conclude that dental coverage is an important determinant of preventive dental service use, but other nonprice factors related to consumer preferences, especially education, are equal if not stronger determinants. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Behavioral economic insights into physician tobacco treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Leone, Frank T; Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-03-01

Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in "next steps" consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of "success" probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Important presuppositions regarding the potential "success" of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors.

"Jumping to conclusions" in delusion-prone participants: an experimental economics approach.

PubMed

van der Leer, Leslie; McKay, Ryan

2014-01-01

That delusional and delusion-prone individuals "jump to conclusions" on probabilistic reasoning tasks is a key finding in cognitive neuropsychiatry. Here we focused on a less frequently investigated aspect of "jumping to conclusions" (JTC): certainty judgments. We incorporated rigorous procedures from experimental economics to eliminate potential confounds of miscomprehension and motivation and systematically investigated the effect of incentives on task performance. Low- and high-delusion-prone participants (n = 109) completed a series of computerised trials; on each trial, they were shown a black or a white fish, caught from one of the two lakes containing fish of both colours in complementary ratios. In the betting condition, participants were given £4 to distribute over the two lakes as they wished; in the control condition, participants simply provided an estimate of how probable each lake was. Deviations from Bayesian probabilities were investigated. Whereas high-delusion-prone participants in both the control and betting conditions underestimated the Bayesian probabilities (i.e. were conservative), low-delusion-prone participants in the control condition underestimated but those in the betting condition provided accurate estimates. In the control condition, there was a trend for high-delusion-prone participants to give higher estimates than low-delusion-prone participants, which is consistent with previous reports of "jumping to conclusions" in delusion-prone participants. However, our findings in the betting condition, where high-delusion-prone participants provided lower estimates than low-delusion-prone participants (who were accurate), are inconsistent with the jumping-to-conclusions effect in both a relative and an absolute sense. Our findings highlight the key role of task incentives and underscore the importance of comparing the responses of delusion-prone participants to an objective rational standard as well as to the responses of non-delusion-prone participants.

Secondary School Students' Reasoning about Conditional Probability, Samples, and Sampling Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prodromou, Theodosia

2016-01-01

In the Australian mathematics curriculum, Year 12 students (aged 16-17) are asked to solve conditional probability problems that involve the representation of the problem situation with two-way tables or three-dimensional diagrams and consider sampling procedures that result in different correct answers. In a small exploratory study, we…

Racial/Ethnic and County-level Disparity in Inpatient Utilization among Hawai'i Medicaid Population.

PubMed

Siriwardhana, Chathura; Lim, Eunjung; Aggarwal, Lovedhi; Davis, James; Hixon, Allen; Chen, John J

2018-05-01

We investigated racial/ethnic and county-level disparities in inpatient utilization for 15 clinical conditions among Hawaii's Medicaid population. The study was conducted using inpatient claims data from more than 200,000 Hawai'i Medicaid beneficiaries, reported in the year 2010. The analysis was performed by stratifying the Medicaid population into three age groups: children and adolescent group (1-20 years), adult group (21-64 years), and elderly group (65 years and above). Among the differences found, Asians had a low probability of inpatient admissions compared to Whites for many disease categories, while Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders had higher probabilities than Whites, across all age groups. Pediatric and adult groups from Hawai'i County (Big Island) had lower probabilities for inpatient admissions compared to Honolulu County (O'ahu) for most disease conditions, but higher probabilities were observed for several conditions in the elderly group. Notably, the elderly population residing on Kaua'i County (Kaua'i and Ni'ihau islands) had substantially increased odds of hospital admissions for several disease conditions, compared to Honolulu.

Accuracy of Cameriere's cut-off value for third molar in assessing 18 years of age.

PubMed

De Luca, S; Biagi, R; Begnoni, G; Farronato, G; Cingolani, M; Merelli, V; Ferrante, L; Cameriere, R

2014-02-01

Due to increasingly numerous international migrations, estimating the age of unaccompanied minors is becoming of enormous significance for forensic professionals who are required to deliver expert opinions. The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for estimating the age of individuals in late adolescence. This study verifies the accuracy of Cameriere's cut-off value of the third molar index (I3M) in assessing 18 years of age. For this purpose, a sample of orthopantomographs (OPTs) of 397 living subjects aged between 13 and 22 years (192 female and 205 male) was analyzed. Age distribution gradually decreases as I3M increases in both males and females. The results show that the sensitivity of the test was 86.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of (80.8%, 91.1%), and its specificity was 95.7%, with a 95% confidence interval of (92.1%, 98%). The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 91.4%. Estimated post-test probability, p was 95.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of (92%, 98%). Hence, the probability that a subject positive on the test (i.e., I3M<0.08) was 18 years of age or older was 95.6%. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-aided diagnosis with potential application to rapid detection of disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Koster, Frederick; Picard, Rick; Forslund, Dave; Wokoun, Doug; Joyce, Ed; Brillman, Judith; Froman, Phil; Lee, Jack

2007-04-15

Our objectives are to quickly interpret symptoms of emergency patients to identify likely syndromes and to improve population-wide disease outbreak detection. We constructed a database of 248 syndromes, each syndrome having an estimated probability of producing any of 85 symptoms, with some two-way, three-way, and five-way probabilities reflecting correlations among symptoms. Using these multi-way probabilities in conjunction with an iterative proportional fitting algorithm allows estimation of full conditional probabilities. Combining these conditional probabilities with misdiagnosis error rates and incidence rates via Bayes theorem, the probability of each syndrome is estimated. We tested a prototype of computer-aided differential diagnosis (CADDY) on simulated data and on more than 100 real cases, including West Nile Virus, Q fever, SARS, anthrax, plague, tularaemia and toxic shock cases. We conclude that: (1) it is important to determine whether the unrecorded positive status of a symptom means that the status is negative or that the status is unknown; (2) inclusion of misdiagnosis error rates produces more realistic results; (3) the naive Bayes classifier, which assumes all symptoms behave independently, is slightly outperformed by CADDY, which includes available multi-symptom information on correlations; as more information regarding symptom correlations becomes available, the advantage of CADDY over the naive Bayes classifier should increase; (4) overlooking low-probability, high-consequence events is less likely if the standard output summary is augmented with a list of rare syndromes that are consistent with observed symptoms, and (5) accumulating patient-level probabilities across a larger population can aid in biosurveillance for disease outbreaks. c 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-11-01

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate, and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics have not been fully investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are sometimes obtained without physics-based interpretations. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering practice and modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is modified and applied to five statistically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs, producing an ensemble of PMP estimates in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) during the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The hybrid approach produced consistent historical PMP estimates as the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% ± 30% of the current design PMP by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability through increased sea surface temperature, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, PMP exhibits higher internal variability. Thus, long-time records of high-quality data in both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.

Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, Lai-Yung

2017-12-22

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom andmore » modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.« less

Transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia using a Markov chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsuddin, Shamshimah; Ismail, Noriszura

2017-04-01

The aim of our study is to estimate the transition probabilities of health states for workers in Malaysia who contribute to the Employment Injury Scheme under the Social Security Organization Malaysia using the Markov chain model. Our study uses four states of health (active, temporary disability, permanent disability and death) based on the data collected from the longitudinal studies of workers in Malaysia for 5 years. The transition probabilities vary by health state, age and gender. The results show that men employees are more likely to have higher transition probabilities to any health state compared to women employees. The transition probabilities can be used to predict the future health of workers in terms of a function of current age, gender and health state.

Predictive models attribute effects on fish assemblages to toxicity and habitat alteration.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Dyer, Scott D; Posthuma, Leo; Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Biological assessments should both estimate the condition of a biological resource (magnitude of alteration) and provide environmental managers with a diagnosis of the potential causes of impairment. Although methods of quantifying condition are well developed, identifying and proportionately attributing impairment to probable causes remain problematic. Furthermore, analyses of both condition and cause have often been difficult to communicate. We developed an approach that (1) links fish, habitat, and chemistry data collected from hundreds of sites in Ohio (USA) streams, (2) assesses the biological condition at each site, (3) attributes impairment to multiple probable causes, and (4) provides the results of the analyses in simple-to-interpret pie charts. The data set was managed using a geographic information system. Biological condition was assessed using a RIVPACS (river invertebrate prediction and classification system)-like predictive model. The model provided probabilities of capture for 117 fish species based on the geographic location of sites and local habitat descriptors. Impaired biological condition was defined as the proportion of those native species predicted to occur at a site that were observed. The potential toxic effects of exposure to mixtures of contaminants were estimated using species sensitivity distributions and mixture toxicity principles. Generalized linear regression models described species abundance as a function of habitat characteristics. Statistically linking biological condition, habitat characteristics including mixture risks, and species abundance allowed us to evaluate the losses of species with environmental conditions. Results were mapped as simple effect and probable-cause pie charts (EPC pie diagrams), with pie sizes corresponding to magnitude of local impairment, and slice sizes to the relative probable contributions of different stressors. The types of models we used have been successfully applied in ecology and ecotoxicology, but they have not previously been used in concert to quantify impairment and its likely causes. Although data limitations constrained our ability to examine complex interactions between stressors and species, the direct relationships we detected likely represent conservative estimates of stressor contributions to local impairment. Future refinements of the general approach and specific methods described here should yield even more promising results.

ASSESSMENT OF DYNAMIC PRA TECHNIQUES WITH INDUSTRY AVERAGE COMPONENT PERFORMANCE DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yadav, Vaibhav; Agarwal, Vivek; Gribok, Andrei V.

In the nuclear industry, risk monitors are intended to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration. Current risk monitors are limited in that they do not properly take into account the deteriorating states of plant equipment, which are unit-specific. Current approaches to computing risk monitors use probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, but the assessment is typically a snapshot in time. Living PRA models attempt to address limitations of traditional PRA models in a limited sense by including temporary changes in plant and system configurations. However, information on plant component health are not considered. Thismore » often leaves risk monitors using living PRA models incapable of conducting evaluations with dynamic degradation scenarios evolving over time. There is a need to develop enabling approaches to solidify risk monitors to provide time and condition-dependent risk by integrating traditional PRA models with condition monitoring and prognostic techniques. This paper presents estimation of system risk evolution over time by integrating plant risk monitoring data with dynamic PRA methods incorporating aging and degradation. Several online, non-destructive approaches have been developed for diagnosing plant component conditions in nuclear industry, i.e., condition indication index, using vibration analysis, current signatures, and operational history [1]. In this work the component performance measures at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) [2] are incorporated within the various dynamic PRA methodologies [3] to provide better estimates of probability of failures. Aging and degradation is modeled within the Level-1 PRA framework and is applied to several failure modes of pumps and can be extended to a range of components, viz. valves, generators, batteries, and pipes.« less

High lifetime probability of screen-detected cervical abnormalities.

PubMed

Pankakoski, Maiju; Heinävaara, Sirpa; Sarkeala, Tytti; Anttila, Ahti

2017-12-01

Objective Regular screening and follow-up is an important key to cervical cancer prevention; however, screening inevitably detects mild or borderline abnormalities that would never progress to a more severe stage. We analysed the cumulative probability and recurrence of cervical abnormalities in the Finnish organized screening programme during a 22-year follow-up. Methods Screening histories were collected for 364,487 women born between 1950 and 1965. Data consisted of 1 207,017 routine screens and 88,143 follow-up screens between 1991 and 2012. Probabilities of cervical abnormalities by age were estimated using logistic regression and generalized estimating equations methodology. Results The probability of experiencing any abnormality at least once at ages 30-64 was 34.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33.3-34.6%) . Probability was 5.4% (95% CI: 5.0-5.8%) for results warranting referral and 2.2% (95% CI: 2.0-2.4%) for results with histologically confirmed findings. Previous occurrences were associated with an increased risk of detecting new ones, specifically in older women. Conclusion A considerable proportion of women experience at least one abnormal screening result during their lifetime, and yet very few eventually develop an actual precancerous lesion. Re-evaluation of diagnostic criteria concerning mild abnormalities might improve the balance of harms and benefits of screening. Special monitoring of women with recurrent abnormalities especially at older ages may also be needed.

Estimating soil moisture exceedance probability from antecedent rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronkite-Ratcliff, C.; Kalansky, J.; Stock, J. D.; Collins, B. D.

2016-12-01

The first storms of the rainy season in coastal California, USA, add moisture to soils but rarely trigger landslides. Previous workers proposed that antecedent rainfall, the cumulative seasonal rain from October 1 onwards, had to exceed specific amounts in order to trigger landsliding. Recent monitoring of soil moisture upslope of historic landslides in the San Francisco Bay Area shows that storms can cause positive pressure heads once soil moisture values exceed a threshold of volumetric water content (VWC). We propose that antecedent rainfall could be used to estimate the probability that VWC exceeds this threshold. A major challenge to estimating the probability of exceedance is that rain gauge records are frequently incomplete. We developed a stochastic model to impute (infill) missing hourly precipitation data. This model uses nearest neighbor-based conditional resampling of the gauge record using data from nearby rain gauges. Using co-located VWC measurements, imputed data can be used to estimate the probability that VWC exceeds a specific threshold for a given antecedent rainfall. The stochastic imputation model can also provide an estimate of uncertainty in the exceedance probability curve. Here we demonstrate the method using soil moisture and precipitation data from several sites located throughout Northern California. Results show a significant variability between sites in the sensitivity of VWC exceedance probability to antecedent rainfall.

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

New approach to probability estimate of femoral neck fracture by fall (Slovak regression model).

PubMed

Wendlova, J

2009-01-01

3,216 Slovak women with primary or secondary osteoporosis or osteopenia, aged 20-89 years, were examined with the bone densitometer DXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, GE, Prodigy - Primo), x = 58.9, 95% C.I. (58.42; 59.38). The values of the following variables for each patient were measured: FSI (femur strength index), T-score total hip left, alpha angle - left, theta angle - left, HAL (hip axis length) left, BMI (body mass index) was calculated from the height and weight of the patients. Regression model determined the following order of independent variables according to the intensity of their influence upon the occurrence of values of dependent FSI variable: 1. BMI, 2. theta angle, 3. T-score total hip, 4. alpha angle, 5. HAL. The regression model equation, calculated from the variables monitored in the study, enables a doctor in praxis to determine the probability magnitude (absolute risk) for the occurrence of pathological value of FSI (FSI < 1) in the femoral neck area, i. e., allows for probability estimate of a femoral neck fracture by fall for Slovak women. 1. The Slovak regression model differs from regression models, published until now, in chosen independent variables and a dependent variable, belonging to biomechanical variables, characterising the bone quality. 2. The Slovak regression model excludes the inaccuracies of other models, which are not able to define precisely the current and past clinical condition of tested patients (e.g., to define the length and dose of exposure to risk factors). 3. The Slovak regression model opens the way to a new method of estimating the probability (absolute risk) or the odds for a femoral neck fracture by fall, based upon the bone quality determination. 4. It is assumed that the development will proceed by improving the methods enabling to measure the bone quality, determining the probability of fracture by fall (Tab. 6, Fig. 3, Ref. 22). Full Text (Free, PDF) www.bmj.sk.

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Abatzoglou, John T; Raffa, Kenneth F; Logan, Jesse A

2016-12-01

Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western USA, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood than in lodgepole pine, by quantifying climate-beetle relationships, analyzing climate influences during the recent outbreak, and estimating the suitability of future climate for beetle outbreaks. We developed a statistical model of the probability of whitebark pine mortality in the GYE that included temperature effects on beetle development and survival, precipitation effects on host tree condition, beetle population size, and stand characteristics. Estimated probability of whitebark pine mortality increased with higher winter minimum temperature, indicating greater beetle winter survival; higher fall temperature, indicating synchronous beetle emergence; lower two-year summer precipitation, indicating increased potential for host tree stress; increasing beetle populations; stand age; and increasing percent composition of whitebark pine within a stand. The recent outbreak occurred during a period of higher-than-normal regional winter temperatures, suitable fall temperatures, and low summer precipitation. In contrast to lodgepole pine systems, area with mortality was linked to precipitation variability even at high beetle populations. Projections from climate models indicate future climate conditions will likely provide favorable conditions for beetle outbreaks within nearly all current whitebark pine habitat in the GYE by the middle of this century. Therefore, when surviving and regenerating trees reach ages suitable for beetle attack, there is strong potential for continued whitebark pine mortality due to mountain pine beetle. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Quantitative risk from fluoroquinolone-resistant Salmonella and Campylobacter due to treatment of dairy heifers with enrofloxacin for bovine respiratory disease.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Vaughn, Michael B; Holtkamp, Derald; Dickson, James; Warnick, Lorin

2010-11-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the human health impact of using fluoroquinolones to treat bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in dairy heifers less than 20 months of age. Specifically, this study quantified the probability of persistent symptoms in humans treated with a fluoroquinolone, for a fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or multidrug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella infection acquired following the consumption of ground beef. To comply with a Food and Drug Administration requirement for approval of enrofloxacin use in dairy heifers, a binomial event tree was constructed following Food and Drug Administration guidance 152. Release was estimated from the slaughter of dairy cattle carrying fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria attributed to the proposed use in dairy heifers. For exposure, human foodborne exposure to Campylobacter, Salmonella, and MDR Salmonella after consumption of ground beef was estimated. The consequence assessment included illness, fluoroquinolone treatment, and persistent symptoms in patients treated with a fluoroquinolone. Using best available data to estimate the parameters and probabilities of each event, stochastic simulation was used to represent uncertainty and variability in many of the parameters. A scenario analysis was performed to evaluate the uncertainty of the following parameters: (1) probability of resistance development in treated animals, (2) portion of illnesses attributable to ground beef, and (3) probability of persistent symptoms in patients 18 years of age and over treated with a fluoroquinolone. The population at risk was restricted to people 18 years of age and over, as fluoroquinolones are not labeled for treatment of gastroenteritis in children. The mean annual increased risk of cases in the U.S. population (18 years of age and over) where compromised fluoroquinolone treatment resulted in persistent symptoms was estimated to be 1 in 61 billion (one case every 293 years) for Salmonella, 1 in 33 billion (one case every 158 years) for MDR Salmonella, and 1 in 2.8 billion (one case every 13 years) for Campylobacter.

Development of a methodology for probable maximum precipitation estimation over the American River watershed using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Elcin

A new physically-based methodology for probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation is developed over the American River Watershed (ARW) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model. A persistent moisture flux convergence pattern, called Pineapple Express, is analyzed for 42 historical extreme precipitation events, and it is found that Pineapple Express causes extreme precipitation over the basin of interest. An average correlation between moisture flux convergence and maximum precipitation is estimated as 0.71 for 42 events. The performance of the WRF model is verified for precipitation by means of calibration and independent validation of the model. The calibration procedure is performed only for the first ranked flood event 1997 case, whereas the WRF model is validated for 42 historical cases. Three nested model domains are set up with horizontal resolutions of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km over the basin of interest. As a result of Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests, the hypothesis that "the WRF model can be used in the determination of PMP over the ARW for both areal average and point estimates" is accepted at the 5% level of significance. The sensitivities of model physics options on precipitation are determined using 28 microphysics, atmospheric boundary layer, and cumulus parameterization schemes combinations. It is concluded that the best triplet option is Thompson microphysics, Grell 3D ensemble cumulus, and YSU boundary layer (TGY), based on 42 historical cases, and this TGY triplet is used for all analyses of this research. Four techniques are proposed to evaluate physically possible maximum precipitation using the WRF: 1. Perturbations of atmospheric conditions; 2. Shift in atmospheric conditions; 3. Replacement of atmospheric conditions among historical events; and 4. Thermodynamically possible worst-case scenario creation. Moreover, climate change effect on precipitation is discussed by emphasizing temperature increase in order to determine the physically possible upper limits of precipitation due to climate change. The simulation results indicate that the meridional shift in atmospheric conditions is the optimum method to determine maximum precipitation in consideration of cost and efficiency. Finally, exceedance probability analyses of the model results of 42 historical extreme precipitation events demonstrate that the 72-hr basin averaged probable maximum precipitation is 21.72 inches for the exceedance probability of 0.5 percent. On the other hand, the current operational PMP estimation for the American River Watershed is 28.57 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 59 and a previous PMP value was 31.48 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 36. According to the exceedance probability analyses of this proposed method, the exceedance probabilities of these two estimations correspond to 0.036 percent and 0.011 percent, respectively.

Hawkes-diffusion process and the conditional probability of defaults in the Eurozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2016-05-01

This study examines market information embedded in the European sovereign CDS (credit default swap) market by analyzing the sovereign CDSs of 13 Eurozone countries from January 1, 2008, to February 29, 2012, which includes the recent Eurozone debt crisis period. We design the conditional probability of defaults for the CDS prices based on the Hawkes-diffusion process and obtain the theoretical prices of CDS indexes. To estimate the model parameters, we calibrate the model prices to empirical prices obtained from individual sovereign CDS term structure data. The estimated parameters clearly explain both cross-sectional and time-series data. Our empirical results show that the probability of a huge loss event sharply increased during the Eurozone debt crisis, indicating a contagion effect. Even countries with strong and stable economies, such as Germany and France, suffered from the contagion effect. We also find that the probability of small events is sensitive to the state of the economy, spiking several times due to the global financial crisis and the Greek government debt crisis.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Exact calculation of loop formation probability identifies folding motifs in RNA secondary structures

PubMed Central

Sloma, Michael F.; Mathews, David H.

2016-01-01

RNA secondary structure prediction is widely used to analyze RNA sequences. In an RNA partition function calculation, free energy nearest neighbor parameters are used in a dynamic programming algorithm to estimate statistical properties of the secondary structure ensemble. Previously, partition functions have largely been used to estimate the probability that a given pair of nucleotides form a base pair, the conditional stacking probability, the accessibility to binding of a continuous stretch of nucleotides, or a representative sample of RNA structures. Here it is demonstrated that an RNA partition function can also be used to calculate the exact probability of formation of hairpin loops, internal loops, bulge loops, or multibranch loops at a given position. This calculation can also be used to estimate the probability of formation of specific helices. Benchmarking on a set of RNA sequences with known secondary structures indicated that loops that were calculated to be more probable were more likely to be present in the known structure than less probable loops. Furthermore, highly probable loops are more likely to be in the known structure than the set of loops predicted in the lowest free energy structures. PMID:27852924

Double-survey estimates of bald eagle populations in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Garrett, Monte G.; Isaacs, F.B.

1999-01-01

The literature on abundance of birds of prey is almost devoid of population estimates with statistical rigor. Therefore, we surveyed bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) populations on the Crooked and lower Columbia rivers of Oregon and used the double-survey method to estimate populations and sighting probabilities for different survey methods (aerial, boat, vehicle) and bald eagle ages (adults vs. subadults). Sighting probabilities were consistently 20%. The results revealed variable and negative bias (percent relative bias = -9 to -70%) of direct counts and emphasized the importance of estimating populations where some measure of precision and ability to conduct inference tests are available. We recommend use of the double-survey method to estimate abundance of bald eagle populations and other raptors in open habitats.

Diagnosis and management of polycystic ovary syndrome in the UK (2004–2014): a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Ding, Tao; Baio, Gianluca; Hardiman, Paul J; Petersen, Irene; Sammon, Cormac

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate the incidence and prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in UK primary care and investigate prescribing patterns before and after a PCOS diagnosis. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting UK primary care (2004–2014). Participants Women aged 15–45 years. Primary and secondary outcome measures The incidence and prevalence of diagnosed PCOS and probable PCOS (ie, those without a confirmed diagnosis but with at least 2 PCOS features recorded within 3 years). Among women with diagnosed or probable PCOS, the prevalence of prescribing of drugs typically used to treat PCOS was calculated prior to and in the 24 months after the diagnosis of PCOS. Results We identified 7233 women with PCOS diagnoses and 7057 women with records suggestive of probable PCOS, corresponding to incidence rates of 0.93 and 0.91 per 1000 person-years at risk (PYAR) and an overall rate of 1.84 per 1000 PYAR. Women aged 20–24 years and women living in deprived areas had the highest incidence of PCOS. The prevalence of PCOS in 2014 was ∼2%. The proportion of women with a prescription in the 24 months after their PCOS index date varied by drug type: 10.2% metformin, 15.2% combined oral contraceptives, 18.8% acne-related treatments, 1.93% clomiphene, 1.0% spironolactone, 0.28% cyproterone and 3.11% eflornithine. Acne-related treatments were more commonly used to treat probable (28.3%) than diagnosed (12.3%) cases, while metformin was prescribed much more commonly in diagnosed cases. Conclusions In conclusion, compared to rates estimated in community samples, the incidence and prevalence of women presenting in primary care with PCOS diagnoses and features are low, indicating that PCOS is an under-recognised condition. Although considerable variation is observed in treatments prescribed to women with PCOS, the treatments initiated following a confirmed diagnosis generally reflect the long-term prognostic concerns raised in PCOS consensuses. PMID:27401369

Extreme river flow dependence in Northern Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, M. Franco; Scott, M.; Hoey, T.; Fischbacher-Smith, D.

2012-04-01

Various methods for the spatial analysis of hydrologic data have been developed recently. Here we present results using the conditional probability approach proposed by Keef et al. [Appl. Stat. (2009): 58,601-18] to investigate spatial interdependence in extreme river flows in Scotland. This approach does not require the specification of a correlation function, being mostly suitable for relatively small geographical areas. The work is motivated by the Flood Risk Management Act (Scotland (2009)) which requires maps of flood risk that take account of spatial dependence in extreme river flow. The method is based on two conditional measures of spatial flood risk: firstly the conditional probability PC(p) that a set of sites Y = (Y 1,...,Y d) within a region C of interest exceed a flow threshold Qp at time t (or any lag of t), given that in the specified conditioning site X > Qp; and, secondly the expected number of sites within C that will exceed a flow Qp on average (given that X > Qp). The conditional probabilities are estimated using the conditional distribution of Y |X = x (for large x), which can be modeled using a semi-parametric approach (Heffernan and Tawn [Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B (2004): 66,497-546]). Once the model is fitted, pseudo-samples can be generated to estimate functionals of the joint tails of the distribution of (Y,X). Conditional return level plots were directly compared to traditional return level plots thus improving our understanding of the dependence structure of extreme river flow events. Confidence intervals were calculated using block bootstrapping methods (100 replicates). We report results from applying this approach to a set of four rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe and Ness) in Northern Scotland. These sites were chosen based on data quality, spatial location and catchment characteristics. The river Ness, being the largest (catchment size 1839.1km2) was chosen as the conditioning river. Both the Ewe (441.1km2) and Ness catchments have predominantly impermeable bedrock, with the Ewe's one being very wet. The Lossie(216km2) and Dulnain (272.2km2) both contain significant areas of glacial deposits. River flow in the Dulnain is usually affected by snowmelt. In all cases, the conditional probability of each of the three rivers (Dulnain, Lossie, Ewe) decreases as the event in the conditioning river (Ness) becomes more extreme. The Ewe, despite being the furthest of the three sites from the Ness shows the strongest dependence, with relatively high (>0.4) conditional probabilities even for very extreme events (>0.995). Although the Lossie is closer geographically to the Ness than the Ewe, it shows relatively low conditional probabilities and can be considered independent of the Ness for very extreme events (> 0.990). The conditional probabilities seem to reflect the different catchment characteristics and dominant precipitation generating events, with the Ewe being more similar to the Ness than the other two rivers. This interpretation suggests that the conditional method may yield improved estimates of extreme events, but the approach is time consuming. An alternative model that is easier to implement, using a spatial quantile regression, is currently being investigated, which would also allow the introduction of further covariates, essential as the effects of climate change are incorporated into estimation procedures.

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Life expectancy in a birth cohort of Boxers followed up from weaning to 10 years of age.

PubMed

van Hagen, Marjan A E; Ducro, Bart J; van den Broek, Jan; Knol, Bart W

2005-09-01

To determine mortality rate over time, risk factors for death, and heritability of life expectancy in Boxers. 1,733 purebred Boxers born in The Netherlands between January 1994 and March 1995. Dogs were followed up from weaning (ie, 49 days of age) to 10 years of age through use of a written questionnaire sent to owners every 6 months. Mortality rate over time, risk factors potentially associated with death, and heritability of life expectancy were examined by use of a proportional hazards model based on the Weibull distribution. stimated mortality rate during the 10-year study period for this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The probability of surviving to 5 years of age was 88%; the probability of surviving to 10 years of age was 55%. Estimated effective heritability of life expectancy was 0.076, meaning that in this population, an estimated 76% of the observed variation in life expectancy could be attributed to genetic differences among dogs that were passed from parents to their offspring. Results suggest that cumulative incidence of death from weaning to 10 years of age among this birth cohort of Boxers was 45%. The estimated heritability of life expectancy suggested that life expectancy can be improved by use of selective breeding.

Improvement of age estimation using amino acid racemization in a case of pink teeth.

PubMed

Ohtani, S; Yamada, Y; Yamamoto, I

1998-03-01

Age was estimated from pink teeth using racemization of dentinal aspartic acid. Materials for identification were two lower second premolars. The body was determined to be that of a 40-year-old man; however, the age of the decedent had been estimated to be 29 and 30 years by the conventional method and 30 years from findings in the oral cavity. To clarify the cause of this difference, the powdered teeth were further washed in 0.01 mol/L hydrochloric acid. The racemization ratio (D/L ratio) of ordinary white teeth from persons of known age was slightly lower than that before washing, whereas that of the teeth used for identification was higher than before washing. The calculated age of the decedent using the racemization ratio of his teeth was between 36 and 37 years. These results suggest that age estimated from pink teeth is probably underestimated, but a more accurate age estimate can be obtained after adequate washing.

A method for modeling bias in a person's estimates of likelihoods of events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nygren, Thomas E.; Morera, Osvaldo

1988-01-01

It is of practical importance in decision situations involving risk to train individuals to transform uncertainties into subjective probability estimates that are both accurate and unbiased. We have found that in decision situations involving risk, people often introduce subjective bias in their estimation of the likelihoods of events depending on whether the possible outcomes are perceived as being good or bad. Until now, however, the successful measurement of individual differences in the magnitude of such biases has not been attempted. In this paper we illustrate a modification of a procedure originally outlined by Davidson, Suppes, and Siegel (3) to allow for a quantitatively-based methodology for simultaneously estimating an individual's subjective utility and subjective probability functions. The procedure is now an interactive computer-based algorithm, DSS, that allows for the measurement of biases in probability estimation by obtaining independent measures of two subjective probability functions (S+ and S-) for winning (i.e., good outcomes) and for losing (i.e., bad outcomes) respectively for each individual, and for different experimental conditions within individuals. The algorithm and some recent empirical data are described.

Calibrating random forests for probability estimation.

PubMed

Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2016-09-30

Probabilities can be consistently estimated using random forests. It is, however, unclear how random forests should be updated to make predictions for other centers or at different time points. In this work, we present two approaches for updating random forests for probability estimation. The first method has been proposed by Elkan and may be used for updating any machine learning approach yielding consistent probabilities, so-called probability machines. The second approach is a new strategy specifically developed for random forests. Using the terminal nodes, which represent conditional probabilities, the random forest is first translated to logistic regression models. These are, in turn, used for re-calibration. The two updating strategies were compared in a simulation study and are illustrated with data from the German Stroke Study Collaboration. In most simulation scenarios, both methods led to similar improvements. In the simulation scenario in which the stricter assumptions of Elkan's method were not met, the logistic regression-based re-calibration approach for random forests outperformed Elkan's method. It also performed better on the stroke data than Elkan's method. The strength of Elkan's method is its general applicability to any probability machine. However, if the strict assumptions underlying this approach are not met, the logistic regression-based approach is preferable for updating random forests for probability estimation. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Behavioral Economic Insights into Physician Tobacco Treatment Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

2015-01-01

Rationale: Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in “next steps” consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Objective: Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Methods: Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of “success” probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Conclusions: Important presuppositions regarding the potential “success” of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors. PMID:25664676

Estimation of Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus) survival, recapture, and recovery rate during and after a disease outbreak

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Dodd, C.K.

2003-01-01

We estimated survivorship, recapture probabilities and recovery rates in a threatened population of Flattened Musk Turtles (Sternotherus depressus) through a disease outbreak in Alabama in 1985. We evaluated a set of models for the demographic effects of disease by analyzing recaptures and recoveries simultaneously. Multiple-model inference suggested survival was temporally dynamic, whereas recapture probability was sex- and age-specifc. Biweekly survivorship declined from 98-99% before to 82-88% during the outbreak. Live recapture was twice as likely for male turtles relative to juveniles or females, whereas dead recoveries varied only slightly by sex and age. Our results suggest modest reduction in survival over a relatively short time period may severely affect population status.

Nutritional condition of Northern Yellowstone Elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, R.C.; Cook, J.G.; Mech, L.D.

2004-01-01

Ultrasonography and body condition scoring was used to estimate nutritional condition of northern Yellowstone elk in late winter. Probability of pregnancy was related to body fat, and lactating cows had 50% less fat than non-lactating cows. For mild to normal winters, most of the elk were in good condition.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

Measuring the subjective value of risky and ambiguous options using experimental economics and functional MRI methods.

PubMed

Levy, Ifat; Rosenberg Belmaker, Lior; Manson, Kirk; Tymula, Agnieszka; Glimcher, Paul W

2012-09-19

Most of the choices we make have uncertain consequences. In some cases the probabilities for different possible outcomes are precisely known, a condition termed "risky". In other cases when probabilities cannot be estimated, this is a condition described as "ambiguous". While most people are averse to both risk and ambiguity(1,2), the degree of those aversions vary substantially across individuals, such that the subjective value of the same risky or ambiguous option can be very different for different individuals. We combine functional MRI (fMRI) with an experimental economics-based method(3 )to assess the neural representation of the subjective values of risky and ambiguous options(4). This technique can be now used to study these neural representations in different populations, such as different age groups and different patient populations. In our experiment, subjects make consequential choices between two alternatives while their neural activation is tracked using fMRI. On each trial subjects choose between lotteries that vary in their monetary amount and in either the probability of winning that amount or the ambiguity level associated with winning. Our parametric design allows us to use each individual's choice behavior to estimate their attitudes towards risk and ambiguity, and thus to estimate the subjective values that each option held for them. Another important feature of the design is that the outcome of the chosen lottery is not revealed during the experiment, so that no learning can take place, and thus the ambiguous options remain ambiguous and risk attitudes are stable. Instead, at the end of the scanning session one or few trials are randomly selected and played for real money. Since subjects do not know beforehand which trials will be selected, they must treat each and every trial as if it and it alone was the one trial on which they will be paid. This design ensures that we can estimate the true subjective value of each option to each subject. We then look for areas in the brain whose activation is correlated with the subjective value of risky options and for areas whose activation is correlated with the subjective value of ambiguous options.

Health care utilization in the elderly Mexican population: expenditures and determinants.

PubMed

González-González, César; Sánchez-García, Sergio; Juárez-Cedillo, Teresa; Rosas-Carrasco, Oscar; Gutiérrez-Robledo, Luis M; García-Peña, Carmen

2011-03-29

Worldwide population aging has been considered one of the most important demographic phenomena, and is frequently referred as a determinant of health costs and expenditures. These costs are an effect either of the aging process itself (social) or because of the increase that comes with older age (individual). To analyze health expenditures and its determinants in a sample of Mexican population, for three dimensions acute morbidity, ambulatory care and hospitalization focusing on different age groups, particularly the elderly. A secondary analysis of the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT), 2006 was conducted. A descriptive analysis was performed to establish a health profile by socio-demographic characteristics. Logistic regression models were estimated to determine the relation between acute morbidity, ambulatory care, hospitalization and age group; to establish the determinants of hospitalization among the population 60 years and older; and to determine hospitalization expenditures by age. Higher proportion of elderly reporting health problems was found. Average expenditures of hospitalization in households were $240.6 am dlls, whereas in households exclusively with elderly the expenditure was $308.9 am dlls, the highest among the considered age groups. The multivariate analysis showed higher probability of being hospitalized among the elderly, but not for risks for acute morbidity and ambulatory care. Among the elderly, older age, being male or living in a city or in a metro area implied a higher probability of hospitalization during the last year, with chronic diseases playing a key role in hospitalization. The conditions associated with age, such as chronic diseases, have higher weight than age itself; therefore, they are responsible for the higher expenditures reported. Conclusions point towards a differentiated use and intensity of health services depending on age. The projected increase in hospitalization and health care needs for this group requires immediate attention.

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Prognosis and Conditional Disease-Free Survival Among Patients With Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Kurta, Michelle L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Moysich, Kirsten B.; McDonough, Kathleen; Bertolet, Marnie; Weissfeld, Joel L.; Catov, Janet M.; Modugno, Francesmary; Bunker, Clareann H.; Ness, Roberta B.; Diergaarde, Brenda

2014-01-01

Purpose Traditional disease-free survival (DFS) does not reflect changes in prognosis over time. Conditional DFS accounts for elapsed time since achieving remission and may provide more relevant prognostic information for patients and clinicians. This study aimed to estimate conditional DFS among patients with ovarian cancer and to evaluate the impact of patient characteristics. Patients and Methods Patients were recruited as part of the Hormones and Ovarian Cancer Prediction case-control study and were included in the current study if they had achieved remission after a diagnosis of cancer of the ovary, fallopian tube, or peritoneum (N = 404). Demographic and lifestyle information was collected at enrollment; disease, treatment, and outcome information was abstracted from medical records. DFS was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional DFS estimates were computed using cumulative DFS estimates. Results Median DFS was 2.54 years (range, 0.03-9.96 years) and 3-year DFS was 48.2%. The probability of surviving an additional 3 years without recurrence, conditioned on having already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after remission, was 63.8%, 80.5%, 90.4%, 97.0%, and 97.7%, respectively. Initial differences in 3-year DFS at time of remission between age, stage, histology, and grade groups decreased over time. Conclusion DFS estimates for patients with ovarian cancer improved dramatically over time, in particular among those with poorer initial prognoses. Conditional DFS is a more relevant measure of prognosis for patients with ovarian cancer who have already achieved a period of remission, and time elapsed since remission should be taken into account when making follow-up care decisions. PMID:25403208

Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

Active life expectancy from annual follow-up data with missing responses.

PubMed

Izmirlian, G; Brock, D; Ferrucci, L; Phillips, C

2000-03-01

Active life expectancy (ALE) at a given age is defined as the expected remaining years free of disability. In this study, three categories of health status are defined according to the ability to perform activities of daily living independently. Several studies have used increment-decrement life tables to estimate ALE, without error analysis, from only a baseline and one follow-up interview. The present work conducts an individual-level covariate analysis using a three-state Markov chain model for multiple follow-up data. Using a logistic link, the model estimates single-year transition probabilities among states of health, accounting for missing interviews. This approach has the advantages of smoothing subsequent estimates and increased power by using all follow-ups. We compute ALE and total life expectancy from these estimated single-year transition probabilities. Variance estimates are computed using the delta method. Data from the Iowa Established Population for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly are used to test the effects of smoking on ALE on all 5-year age groups past 65 years, controlling for sex and education.

APPLICATION OF A MULTIPURPOSE UNEQUAL-PROBABILITY STREAM SURVEY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN

EPA Science Inventory

A stratified random sample with unequal-probability selection was used to design a multipurpose survey of headwater streams in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Objectives for data from the survey include unbiased estimates of regional stream conditions, and adequate coverage of un...

Modelling the time at which overcrowding and feed interruption emerge on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever outbreak.

PubMed

Weng, H Y; Yadav, S; Olynk Widmar, N J; Croney, C; Ash, M; Cooper, M

2017-03-01

A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer's decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer's decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.

Forensic applications of 14C at CIRCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzaioli, F.; Fiumano, V.; Capano, M.; Passariello, I.; Cesare, N. De.; Terrasi, F.

2011-12-01

The decreasing trend of the radiocarbon pulse produced during the atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons (bomb-carbon) coupled with high sensitivity accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements, drastically increased the precision of radiocarbon age determinations since the second part of the sixties, allowing the application of radiocarbon AMS to a wide range of studies previously not directly involving conventional radiocarbon dating (i.e. food authenticity, forensic, biochemistry). In the framework of authenticity evaluation of artworks, high precision radiocarbon ( 14C) AMS measurements (Δ R/ R < 0.3%) reduce the conventional uncertainty of the dating to few decades, allowing precise age estimation of materials containing carbon (C). The Centre for Isotopic Research on Cultural and Environmental heritage (CIRCE) during its activity on AMS 14C dating achieved high precision measurements opening the opportunity to these kinds of applications. This paper presents the main results obtained from radiocarbon measurements on a set of bone samples analyzed for the determination of the post-mortem interval in the framework of an unsolved case investigated by the Rome prosecutor office. The chronological characterization of the wooden support of the "Acerenza portrait" is also presented with the aim to evaluate its age and to further investigate the possibility to attribute this artwork to Leonardo da Vinci. Bomb- 14C dating on the lipid and collagen fractions of bones allows the evaluation of the year of the death of the individuals by means of ad hoc calibration data sheet with the typical few years precision and difference between collagen apparent age and the year of death appeared in agreement with the age of one individual estimated by dating of tooth collagen. Conventional radiocarbon dating on both wood and wood extracted cellulose leads to an estimation of the portrait wood board age (2σ) of 1459-1524 AD (57% relative probability), 1571-1631 AD interval (42% relative probability).and 1559-1563 AD (1% relative probability). These results attribute with the highest relative probability an age comprised within the life span of Leonardo (1452-1519) to the support.

Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review.

PubMed

Cook, D A

2006-04-01

Models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care unit patients can be used to stratify patients according to the severity of their condition and to control for casemix and severity of illness. These models have been used for risk adjustment in quality monitoring, administration, management and research and as an aid to clinical decision making. Models such as the Mortality Prediction Model family, SAPS II, APACHE II, APACHE III and the organ system failure models provide estimates of the probability of in-hospital death of ICU patients. This review examines methods to assess the performance of these models. The key attributes of a model are discrimination (the accuracy of the ranking in order of probability of death) and calibration (the extent to which the model's prediction of probability of death reflects the true risk of death). These attributes should be assessed in existing models that predict the probability of patient mortality, and in any subsequent model that is developed for the purposes of estimating these probabilities. The literature contains a range of approaches for assessment which are reviewed and a survey of the methodologies used in studies of intensive care mortality models is presented. The systematic approach used by Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy provides a framework to incorporate these theoretical considerations of model assessment and recommendations are made for evaluation and presentation of the performance of models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care patients.

Assessment of a ground water flow model of the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, using carbon-14-based ages and paleohydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.E.; Buapeng, S.

1996-01-01

A study was undertaken to understand the groundwater flow conditions in the Bangkok Basin, Thailand, by comparing 14C-based and simulated groundwater ages. 14C measurements were made on about 50 water samples taken from wells throughout the basin. Simulated ages were obtained using 1) backward-pathline tracking based on the well locations, and 2) results from a three-dimensional groundwater flow model. Comparisons of ages at these locations reveal a large difference between 14C-based ages and ages predicted by the steady-state groundwater flow model. Mainly, 14C and 13C analyses indicate that groundwater in the Bangkok area is about 20,000 years old, whereas steady-state flow and transport simulations imply that groundwater in the Bangkok area is 50,000-100,000 years old. One potential reason for the discrepancy between simulated and 14C-based ages is the assumption in the model of steady-state flow. Groundwater velocities were probably greater in the region before about 10,000 years ago, during the last glacial maximum, because of the lower position of sea level and the absence of the surficial Bangkok Clay. Paleoflow conditions were estimated and then incorporated into a second set of simulations. The new assumption was that current steady-state flow conditions existed for the last 8,000 years but were preceded by steady-state conditions representative of flow during the last glacial maximum. This "transient" paleohydrologic simulation yielded a mean simulated age that more closely agrees with the mean 14C-based age, especially if the 14C-based age is corrected for diffusion into clay layers. Although the uncertainties in both the simulated and 14C-based ages are nontrivial, the magnitude of the improved match in the mean age using a paleohydrologic simulation instead of a steady-state simulation suggests that flow conditions in the basin have changed significantly over the last 10,000-20,000 years. Given that the valid age range of 14C-dating methods and the timing of the last glacial maximum are of similar magnitude, adjustments for paleohydrologic conditions may be required for many such studies.

Asymmetric peer effects in the analysis of cigarette smoking among young people in the United States, 1992-1999.

PubMed

Harris, Jeffrey E; González López-Valcárcel, Beatriz

2008-03-01

We extend the recent literature on peer effects to test the possible role of asymmetric social influences in the determination of youth smoking. We analyzed cigarette smoking among people aged 15-24 in approximately 90,000 households in the 1992-1999 U.S. Current Population Surveys. The presence of additional smoking sibling in a household, we estimated, raised a young person's probability of smoking by 7.6%, while each non-smoking sibling lowered the probability by an estimated 3.5%. Moreover, the overall deterrent effect of an increase in cigarette price on the probability of smoking was approximately 60% greater than the estimated effect when peer influences were held constant. The concept of asymmetric social influence may have applications in other fields, including labor economics, education, crime prevention, and group dynamics.

Probable Maximum Precipitation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in a Changing Climate: PMP UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

The safety of large and aging water infrastructures is gaining attention in water management given the accelerated rate of change in landscape, climate and society. In current engineering practice, such safety is ensured by the design of infrastructure for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Recently, several physics-based numerical modeling approaches have been proposed to modernize the conventional and ad hoc PMP estimation approach. However, the underlying physics has not been investigated and thus differing PMP estimates are obtained without clarity on their interpretation. In this study, we present a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both traditional engineering wisdom andmore » modern climate science to estimate PMP for current and future climate conditions. The traditional PMP approach is improved and applied to outputs from an ensemble of five CMIP5 models. This hybrid approach is applied in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) to produce ensemble PMP estimation for the historical (1970-2016) and future (2050-2099) time periods. The new historical PMP estimates are verified by comparing them with the traditional estimates. PMP in the PNW will increase by 50% of the current level by 2099 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the increase is caused by warming, which mainly affects moisture availability, with minor contributions from changes in storm efficiency in the future. Moist track change tends to reduce the future PMP. Compared with extreme precipitation, ensemble PMP exhibits higher internal variation. Thus high-quality data of both precipitation and related meteorological fields (temperature, wind fields) are required to reduce uncertainties in the ensemble PMP estimates.« less

Development of a score and probability estimate for detecting angle closure based on anterior segment optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Nongpiur, Monisha E; Haaland, Benjamin A; Perera, Shamira A; Friedman, David S; He, Mingguang; Sakata, Lisandro M; Baskaran, Mani; Aung, Tin

2014-01-01

To develop a score along with an estimated probability of disease for detecting angle closure based on anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS OCT) imaging. Cross-sectional study. A total of 2047 subjects 50 years of age and older were recruited from a community polyclinic in Singapore. All subjects underwent standardized ocular examination including gonioscopy and imaging by AS OCT (Carl Zeiss Meditec). Customized software (Zhongshan Angle Assessment Program) was used to measure AS OCT parameters. Complete data were available for 1368 subjects. Data from the right eyes were used for analysis. A stepwise logistic regression model with Akaike information criterion was used to generate a score that then was converted to an estimated probability of the presence of gonioscopic angle closure, defined as the inability to visualize the posterior trabecular meshwork for at least 180 degrees on nonindentation gonioscopy. Of the 1368 subjects, 295 (21.6%) had gonioscopic angle closure. The angle closure score was calculated from the shifted linear combination of the AS OCT parameters. The score can be converted to an estimated probability of having angle closure using the relationship: estimated probability = e(score)/(1 + e(score)), where e is the natural exponential. The score performed well in a second independent sample of 178 angle-closure subjects and 301 normal controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94. A score derived from a single AS OCT image, coupled with an estimated probability, provides an objective platform for detection of angle closure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

2012-06-10

Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Condition of Tidal Wetlands of Washington, Oregon and California - 2002

EPA Science Inventory

The National Coastal Assessment (NCA) of US EPA conducted the first probability based assessment of the condition of estuarine intertidal wetland resources of the West Coast of the U.S. in 2002. The study results constitute a baseline estimate of condition of coastal resources t...

Variability in Pathologists’ Interpretations of Individual Breast Biopsy Slides: A Population Perspective

PubMed Central

Elmore, Joann G.; Nelson, Heidi D.; Pepe, Margaret S.; Longton, Gary M.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Geller, Berta; Onega, Tracy; Carney, Patricia A.; Jackson, Sara L.; Allison, Kimberly H.; Weaver, Donald L.

2016-01-01

Background The effect of physician diagnostic variability on accuracy at a population level depends on the prevalence of diagnoses. Objective To estimate how diagnostic variability affects accuracy from the perspective of a U.S. woman aged 50 to 59 years having a breast biopsy. Design Applied probability using Bayes theorem. Setting B-Path (Breast Pathology) Study comparing pathologists’ interpretations of a single biopsy slide versus a reference consensus interpretation from 3 experts. Participants 115 practicing pathologists (6900 total interpretations from 240 distinct cases). Measurements A single representative slide from each of the 240 cases was used to estimate the proportion of biopsies with a diagnosis that would be verified if the same slide were interpreted by a reference group of 3 expert pathologists. Probabilities of confirmation (predictive values) were estimated using B-Path Study results and prevalence of biopsy diagnoses for women aged 50 to 59 years in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Results Overall, if 1 representative slide were used per case, 92.3% (95% CI, 91.4% to 93.1%) of breast biopsy diagnoses would be verified by reference consensus diagnoses, with 4.6% (CI, 3.9% to 5.3%) overinterpreted and 3.2% (CI, 2.7% to 3.6%) underinterpreted. Verification of invasive breast cancer and benign without atypia diagnoses is highly probable; estimated predictive values were 97.7% (CI, 96.5% to 98.7%) and 97.1% (CI, 96.7% to 97.4%), respectively. Verification is less probable for atypia (53.6% overinterpreted and 8.6% underinterpreted) and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (18.5% overinterpreted and 11.8% underinterpreted). Limitations Estimates are based on a testing situation with 1 slide used per case and without access to second opinions. Population-adjusted estimates may differ for women from other age groups, unscreened women, or women in different practice settings. Conclusion This analysis, based on interpretation of a single breast biopsy slide per case, predicts a low likelihood that a diagnosis of atypia or DCIS would be verified by a reference consensus diagnosis. This diagnostic gray zone should be considered in clinical management decisions in patients with these diagnoses. Primary Funding Source National Cancer Institute. PMID:26999810

Evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (Gila cypha), with implications for demographic parameter estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Kristen Nicole; Kendall, William L.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Persons, William R.

2015-01-01

Our findings reveal evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (HBC; Gila cypha  ). Using closed robust design mark-recapture models, we found, on average, spawning HBC transition to the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.45 (95% CRI (i.e. credible interval): 0.10, 0.80) and skipped spawners remain in the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.60 (95% CRI: 0.26, 0.83), yielding an average spawning cycle of every 2.12 years, conditional on survival. As a result, migratory skipped spawners are unavailable for detection during annual sampling events. If availability is unaccounted for, survival and detection probability estimates will be biased. Therefore, we estimated annual adult survival probability (S), while accounting for skipped spawning, and found S remained reasonably stable throughout the study period, with an average of 0.75 ((95% CRI: 0.66, 0.82), process varianceσ2 = 0.005), while skipped spawning probability was highly dynamic (σ2 = 0.306). By improving understanding of HBC spawning strategies, conservation decisions can be based on less biased estimates of survival and a more informed population model structure.

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

2009-01-01

Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data: 1. Estimation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, Robert J.; Helsel, Dennis R.

1986-01-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data. 1. Estimation Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

1986-02-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensoredmore » observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data det. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.« less

Use and interpretation of logistic regression in habitat-selection studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keating, Kim A.; Cherry, Steve

2004-01-01

 Logistic regression is an important tool for wildlife habitat-selection studies, but the method frequently has been misapplied due to an inadequate understanding of the logistic model, its interpretation, and the influence of sampling design. To promote better use of this method, we review its application and interpretation under 3 sampling designs: random, case-control, and use-availability. Logistic regression is appropriate for habitat use-nonuse studies employing random sampling and can be used to directly model the conditional probability of use in such cases. Logistic regression also is appropriate for studies employing case-control sampling designs, but careful attention is required to interpret results correctly. Unless bias can be estimated or probability of use is small for all habitats, results of case-control studies should be interpreted as odds ratios, rather than probability of use or relative probability of use. When data are gathered under a use-availability design, logistic regression can be used to estimate approximate odds ratios if probability of use is small, at least on average. More generally, however, logistic regression is inappropriate for modeling habitat selection in use-availability studies. In particular, using logistic regression to fit the exponential model of Manly et al. (2002:100) does not guarantee maximum-likelihood estimates, valid probabilities, or valid likelihoods. We show that the resource selection function (RSF) commonly used for the exponential model is proportional to a logistic discriminant function. Thus, it may be used to rank habitats with respect to probability of use and to identify important habitat characteristics or their surrogates, but it is not guaranteed to be proportional to probability of use. Other problems associated with the exponential model also are discussed. We describe an alternative model based on Lancaster and Imbens (1996) that offers a method for estimating conditional probability of use in use-availability studies. Although promising, this model fails to converge to a unique solution in some important situations. Further work is needed to obtain a robust method that is broadly applicable to use-availability studies.

Exact calculation of loop formation probability identifies folding motifs in RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Sloma, Michael F; Mathews, David H

2016-12-01

RNA secondary structure prediction is widely used to analyze RNA sequences. In an RNA partition function calculation, free energy nearest neighbor parameters are used in a dynamic programming algorithm to estimate statistical properties of the secondary structure ensemble. Previously, partition functions have largely been used to estimate the probability that a given pair of nucleotides form a base pair, the conditional stacking probability, the accessibility to binding of a continuous stretch of nucleotides, or a representative sample of RNA structures. Here it is demonstrated that an RNA partition function can also be used to calculate the exact probability of formation of hairpin loops, internal loops, bulge loops, or multibranch loops at a given position. This calculation can also be used to estimate the probability of formation of specific helices. Benchmarking on a set of RNA sequences with known secondary structures indicated that loops that were calculated to be more probable were more likely to be present in the known structure than less probable loops. Furthermore, highly probable loops are more likely to be in the known structure than the set of loops predicted in the lowest free energy structures. © 2016 Sloma and Mathews; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

Analyses of factors of crash avoidance maneuvers using the general estimates system.

PubMed

Yan, Xuedong; Harb, Rami; Radwan, Essam

2008-06-01

Taking an effective corrective action to a critical traffic situation provides drivers an opportunity to avoid crash occurrence and minimize crash severity. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the probability of taking corrective actions and the characteristics of drivers, vehicles, and driving environments. Using the 2004 GES crash database, this study classified drivers who encountered critical traffic events (identified as P_CRASH3 in the GES database) into two pre-crash groups: corrective avoidance actions group and no corrective avoidance actions group. Single and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify potential traffic factors associated with the probability of drivers taking corrective actions. The regression results showed that the driver/vehicle factors associated with the probability of taking corrective actions include: driver age, gender, alcohol use, drug use, physical impairments, distraction, sight obstruction, and vehicle type. In particular, older drivers, female drivers, drug/alcohol use, physical impairment, distraction, or poor visibility may increase the probability of failing to attempt to avoid crashes. Moreover, drivers of larger size vehicles are 42.5% more likely to take corrective avoidance actions than passenger car drivers. On the other hand, the significant environmental factors correlated with the drivers' crash avoidance maneuver include: highway type, number of lanes, divided/undivided highway, speed limit, highway alignment, highway profile, weather condition, and surface condition. Some adverse highway environmental factors, such as horizontal curves, vertical curves, worse weather conditions, and slippery road surface conditions are correlated with a higher probability of crash avoidance maneuvers. These results may seem counterintuitive but they can be explained by the fact that motorists may be more likely to drive cautiously in those adverse driving environments. The analyses revealed that drivers' distraction could be the highest risk factor leading to the failure of attempting to avoid crashes. Further analyses entailing distraction causes (e.g., cellular phone use) and their possible countermeasures need to be conducted. The age and gender factors are overrepresented in the "no avoidance maneuver." A possible solution could involve the integration of a new function in the current ITS technologies. A personalized system, which could be related to the expected type of maneuver for a driver with certain characteristics, would assist different drivers with different characteristics to avoid crashes. Further crash database studies are recommended to investigate the association of drivers' emergency maneuvers such as braking, steering, or their combination with crash severity.

Growth and mortality of age-0 northern squawfish, Ptychocheilus oregonensis, rearing in shoreline habitats of the Columbia River Reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barfoot, C.A.; Gadomski, D.M.; Wertheimer, R.H.

1999-01-01

We investigated growth and mortality of age-0 northern squawfish during early rearing in shallow shoreline habitats. Larvae and juveniles (n=22914) were collected by weekly seining at three sample sites in the upper John Day Reservoir, Columbia River, during June through early September 1994–1996. Using a length-based ageing method, it was estimated that the exponential growth rate (G) for a common growth stanza (10–28 mm standard length SL) was significantly higher in 1994 (G=0.047) than in 1996 (G=0.037). Growth rate in 1995 could not be estimated, but was probably intermediate between 1994 and 1996 based on mean standard lengths of fish collected at the end of each sampling season (46.3, 40.0, and 32.0 mm SL in 1994, 1995, and 1996, respectively). For many fish species, variations in early growth can influence survival through size-selective mortality processes. Consistent with this possibility, our estimates of instantaneous mortality rates (Z) demonstrated that larvae and juveniles had significantly higher mortality in 1996 than in 1994 (Z=0.103 in 1994, versus Z=0.138 in 1996). Enhanced growth and lower mortality in 1994 were associated with a number of interrelated environmental conditions – comparatively low flows and turbidities, abundant instream vegetative cover, and high near-shore water temperatures.

Estimating the Per-Contact Probability of Infection by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H7N7) Virus during the 2003 Epidemic in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Ssematimba, Amos; Elbers, Armin R. W.; Hagenaars, Thomas J.; de Jong, Mart C. M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced. The estimated conditional probabilities, conditional on the contact originating from an infectious farm, of virus transmission were: 0.000057 per infectious farm within 1 km per day, 0.000413 per infectious farm between 1 and 3 km per day, 0.0000895 per infectious farm between 3 and 10 km per day, 0.0011 per crisis organisation contact, 0.0414 per feed delivery contact, 0.308 per egg transport contact, 0.133 per other-professional contact and, 0.246 per rendering contact. We validate these outcomes against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. These estimates can be used to inform further studies on the role that improved biosecurity between contacts and/or contact frequency reduction can play in eliminating between-farm spread of the virus during future epidemics. The findings also highlight the need to; 1) understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and, 2) to review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm’s day-to-day activities and practices. PMID:22808285

Comparison of Smoking History Patterns Among African American and White Cohorts in the United States Born 1890 to 1990.

PubMed

Holford, Theodore R; Levy, David T; Meza, Rafael

2016-04-01

Characterizing smoking history patterns summarizes life course exposure for birth cohorts, essential for evaluating the impact of tobacco control on health. Limited attention has been given to patterns among African Americans. Life course smoking histories of African Americans and whites were estimated beginning with the 1890 birth cohort. Estimates of smoking initiation and cessation probabilities, and intensity can be used as a baseline for studying smoking intervention strategies that target smoking exposure. US National Health Interview Surveys conducted from 1965 to 2012 yielded cross-sectional information on current smoking behavior among African Americans and whites. Additional detail for smokers including age at initiation, age at cessation and smoking intensity were available in some surveys and these were used to construct smoking histories for participants up to the date that they were interviewed. Age-period-cohort models with constrained natural splines provided estimates of current, former and never-smoker prevalence in cohorts beginning in 1890. This approach yielded yearly estimates of initiation, cessation and smoking intensity by age for each birth cohort. Smoking initiation probabilities tend to be lower among African Americans compared to whites, and cessation probabilities also were generally lower. Higher initiation leads to higher smoking prevalence among whites in younger ages, but lower cessation leads to higher prevalence at older ages in blacks, when adverse health effects of smoking become most apparent. These estimates provide a summary that can be used to better understand the effects of changes in smoking behavior following publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964. A novel method of estimating smoking histories was applied to data from the National Health Interview Surveys, which provided an extensive summary of the smoking history in this population following publication of the Surgeon General's Report in 1964. The results suggest that some of the existing disparities in smoking-related disease may be due to the lower cessation rates in African Americans compared to whites. However, the number of cigarettes smoked is also lower among African Americans. Further work is needed to determine mechanisms by which smoking duration and intensity can account for racial disparities in smoking-related diseases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving more confidence in the estimate, and we use those data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption in the next year at 1.4x10-5.

The impact of differences in EQ-5D and SF-6D utility scores on the acceptability of cost-utility ratios: results across five trial-based cost-utility studies.

PubMed

Joore, Manuela; Brunenberg, Danielle; Nelemans, Patricia; Wouters, Emiel; Kuijpers, Petra; Honig, Adriaan; Willems, Danielle; de Leeuw, Peter; Severens, Johan; Boonen, Annelies

2010-01-01

This article investigates whether differences in utility scores based on the EQ-5D and the SF-6D have impact on the incremental cost-utility ratios in five distinct patient groups. We used five empirical data sets of trial-based cost-utility studies that included patients with different disease conditions and severity (musculoskeletal disease, cardiovascular pulmonary disease, and psychological disorders) to calculate differences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) based on EQ-5D and SF-6D utility scores. We compared incremental QALYs, incremental cost-utility ratios, and the probability that the incremental cost-utility ratio was acceptable within and across the data sets. We observed small differences in incremental QALYs, but large differences in the incremental cost-utility ratios and in the probability that these ratios were acceptable at a given threshold, in the majority of the presented cost-utility analyses. More specifically, in the patient groups with relatively mild health conditions the probability of acceptance of the incremental cost-utility ratio was considerably larger when using the EQ-5D to estimate utility. While in the patient groups with worse health conditions the probability of acceptance of the incremental cost-utility ratio was considerably larger when using the SF-6D to estimate utility. Much of the appeal in using QALYs as measure of effectiveness in economic evaluations is in the comparability across conditions and interventions. The incomparability of the results of cost-utility analyses using different instruments to estimate a single index value for health severely undermines this aspect and reduces the credibility of the use of incremental cost-utility ratios for decision-making.

Experimental and statistical study on fracture boundary of non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube under LOCA conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narukawa, Takafumi; Yamaguchi, Akira; Jang, Sunghyon; Amaya, Masaki

2018-02-01

For estimating fracture probability of fuel cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident conditions of light-water-reactors, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were conducted on non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Then, the obtained binary data with respect to fracture or non-fracture of the cladding tube specimen were analyzed statistically. A method to obtain the fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) was proposed using Bayesian inference for generalized linear models: probit, logit, and log-probit models. Then, model selection was performed in terms of physical characteristics and information criteria, a widely applicable information criterion and a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. As a result, it was clarified that the log-probit model was the best among the three models to estimate the fracture probability in terms of the degree of prediction accuracy for both next data to be obtained and the true model. Using the log-probit model, it was shown that 20% ECR corresponded to a 5% probability level with a 95% confidence of fracture of the cladding tube specimens.

The Economics of Cognitive Impairment: Volunteering and Cognitive Function in the HILDA Survey.

PubMed

Hosking, Diane E; Anstey, Kaarin J

2016-01-01

The economic impact of older-age cognitive impairment has been estimated primarily by the direct and indirect costs associated with dementia care. Other potential costs associated with milder cognitive impairment in the community have received little attention. To quantify the cost of nonclinical cognitive impairment in a large population-based sample in order to more fully inform cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions to maintain cognitive health. Volunteering by seniors has economic value but those with lower cognitive function may contribute fewer hours. Relations between hours volunteering and cognitive impairment were assessed using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data. These findings were extrapolated to the Australian population to estimate one potential cost attributable to nonclinical cognitive impairment. In those aged ≥60 years in HILDA (n = 3,127), conservatively defined cognitive impairment was present in 3.8% of the sample. Impairment was defined by performance ≥1 standard deviation below the age- and education-adjusted mean on both the Symbol Digit Modalities Test and Backwards Digit Span test. In fully adjusted binomial regression models, impairment was associated with the probability of undertaking 1 h 9 min less volunteering a week compared to being nonimpaired (β = -1.15, 95% confidence interval -1.82 to -0.47, p = 0.001). In the population, 3.8% impairment equated to probable loss of AUD 302,307,969 per annum estimated by hours of volunteering valued by replacement cost. Nonclinical cognitive impairment in older age impacts upon on the nonmonetary economy via probable loss of volunteering contribution. Valuing loss of contribution provides additional information for cost-effectiveness evaluations of research and action directed toward maintaining older-age cognitive functioning. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Tracking the Sensory Environment: An ERP Study of Probability and Context Updating in ASD

PubMed Central

Westerfield, Marissa A.; Zinni, Marla; Vo, Khang; Townsend, Jeanne

2014-01-01

We recorded visual event-related brain potentials (ERPs) from 32 adult male participants (16 high-functioning participants diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and 16 control participants, ranging in age from 18–53 yrs) during a three-stimulus oddball paradigm. Target and non-target stimulus probability was varied across three probability conditions, whereas the probability of a third non-target stimulus was held constant in all conditions. P3 amplitude to target stimuli was more sensitive to probability in ASD than in TD participants, whereas P3 amplitude to non-target stimuli was less responsive to probability in ASD participants. This suggests that neural responses to changes in event probability are attention-dependant in high-functioning ASD. The implications of these findings for higher-level behaviors such as prediction and planning are discussed. PMID:24488156

A model of hygiene practices and consumption patterns in the consumer phase.

PubMed

Christensen, Bjarke B; Rosenquist, Hanne; Sommer, Helle M; Nielsen, Niels L; Fagt, Sisse; Andersen, Niels L; Nørrung, Birgit

2005-02-01

A mathematical model is presented, which addresses individual hygiene practices during food preparation and consumption patterns in private homes. Further, the model links food preparers and consumers based on their relationship to household types. For different age and gender groups, the model estimates (i) the probability of ingesting a meal where precautions have not been taken to avoid the transfer of microorganisms from raw food to final meal (a risk meal), exemplified by the event that the cutting board was not washed during food preparation, and (ii) the probability of ingesting a risk meal in a private home, where chicken was the prepared food item (a chicken risk meal). Chicken was included in the model, as chickens are believed to be the major source of human exposure to the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the probability of ingesting a risk meal was highest for young males (aged 18-29 years) and lowest for the elderly above 60 years of age. Children aged 0-4 years had a higher probability of ingesting a risk meal than children aged 5-17 years. This difference between age and gender groups was ascribed to the variations in the hygiene levels of food preparers. By including the probability of ingesting a chicken meal at home, simulations revealed that all age groups, except the group above 60 years of age, had approximately the same probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal, the probability of females being slightly higher than that of males. The simulated results show that the probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal at home does not only depend on the hygiene practices of the persons preparing the food, but also on the consumption patterns of consumers, and the relationship between people preparing and ingesting food. This finding supports the need of including information on consumer behavior and preparation hygiene in the consumer phase of exposure assessments.

Detection of sea otters in boat-based surveys of Prince William Sound, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Bodkin, James L.; Costa, Daniel P.

1995-01-01

Boat-based surveys have been commonly used to monitor sea otter populations, but there has been little quantitative work to evaluate detection biases that may affect these surveys. We used ground-based observers to investigate sea otter detection probabilities in a boat-based survey of Prince William Sound, Alaska. We estimated that 30% of the otters present on surveyed transects were not detected by boat crews. Approximately half (53%) of the undetected otters were missed because the otters left the transects, apparently in response to the approaching boat. Unbiased estimates of detection probabilities will be required for obtaining unbiased population estimates from boat-based surveys of sea otters. Therefore, boat-based surveys should include methods to estimate sea otter detection probabilities under the conditions specific to each survey. Unbiased estimation of detection probabilities with ground-based observers requires either that the ground crews detect all of the otters in observed subunits, or that there are no errors in determining which crews saw each detected otter. Ground-based observer methods may be appropriate in areas where nearly all of the sea otter habitat is potentially visible from ground-based vantage points.

Selective inspection planning with ageing forecast for sewer types.

PubMed

Baur, R; Herz, R

2002-01-01

Investments in sewer rehabilitation must be based on inspection and evaluation of sewer conditions with respect to the severity of sewer damage and to environmental risks. This paper deals with the problems of forecasting the condition of sewers in a network from a small sample of inspected sewers. Transition functions from one into the next poorer condition class, which were empirically derived from this sample, are used to forecast the condition of sewers. By the same procedure, transition functions were subsequently calibrated for sub-samples of different types of sewers. With these transition functions, the most probable date of entering a critical condition class can be forecast from sewer characteristics, such as material, period of construction, location, use for waste and/or storm water, profile, diameter and gradient. Results are shown for the estimates about the actual condition of the Dresden sewer network and its deterioration in case of doing nothing about it. A procedure is proposed for scheduling the inspection dates for sewers which have not yet been inspected and for those which have been inspected before.

Overwinter survival of neotropical migratory birds in early successional and mature tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Powell, G.V.N.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

Many Neotropical migratory species inhabit both mature and early successional forest on their wintering grounds, yet comparisons of survival rates between habitats are lacking. Consequently, the factors affecting habitat suitability for Neotropical migrants and the potential effects of tropical deforestation on migrants are not well understood. We estimated over-winter survival and capture probabilities of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina), and Kentucky Warbler (Oporomis formosus) inhabiting two common tropical habitat types, mature and early-successional forest. Our results suggest that large differences (for example, ratio of survival rates (gamma) < 0.85) in overwinter survival between these habitats do not exist for any of these species. Age ratios did not differ between habitats, but males were more common in forest habitats and females more common in successional habitats for Hooded Warblers and Kentucky Warblers. Future research on overwinter survival should address the need for age- and sex-specific survival estimates before we can draw strong conclusions regarding winter habitat suitability. Our estimates of over-winter survival extrapolated to annual survival rates that were generally lower than previous estimates of annual survival of migratory birds. Capture probability differed between habitats for Kentucky Warblers, but our results provide strong evidence against large differences in capture probability between habitats for Wood Thrush, Hooded Warblers, and Ovenbirds. We found no temporal or among site differences in survival or capture probability for any of the four species. Additional research is needed to examine the effects of winter habitat use on survival during migration and between-winter survival.

Size Estimation of Groups at High Risk of HIV/AIDS using Network Scale Up in Kerman, Iran

PubMed Central

Shokoohi, Mostafa; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar

2012-01-01

Objective: To estimate the size of groups at high risk of HIV, Network Scale UP (NSU), an indirect method, was used. Methods: 500 Kermanian male aged 18 to 45 were recruited. 8 groups at high risk of HIV were defined: Users of opium, unknown drug, ecstasy, and alcohol; intra-venous drug users (IDUs; males who have extra-marital sex with females (MSF); male who have sex with female sex workers (MFSW); and male who have sex with other male (MSMs). We asked respondents whether they know anybody (probability method), and if yes, how many people (frequency method) in our target groups. Results: Estimates derived in the probability method were higher than the frequency method. Based on the probability method, 13.7% (95% CI: 11.3%, 16.1%) of males used alcohol at least once in last year; the corresponding percent for opium was 13.1% (95% CI: 10.9%, 15.3%). In addition, 12% has extra-marital sex in last year (95% CI: 10%, 14%); while 7% (95% CI: 5.8%, 8.2%) had sex with a female sex worker. Conclusion: We showed that drug use is more common among young and mid-age males; although their sexual contacts were also considerable. These percentages show that special preventive program is needed to control an HIV transmission. Estimates derived from probability method were comparable with data from external sources. The underestimation in frequency method might be due to the fact that respondents are not aware of sensitive characteristics of all those in their network and underreporting is likely to occur. PMID:22891148

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace-level water-quality data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

1984-01-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water-sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations,more » for determining the best-performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least-squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification. 6 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Improved first-order uncertainty method for water-quality modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Anmangandla, S.

1992-01-01

Uncertainties are unavoidable in water-quality modeling and subsequent management decisions. Monte Carlo simulation and first-order uncertainty analysis (involving linearization at central values of the uncertain variables) have been frequently used to estimate probability distributions for water-quality model output due to their simplicity. Each method has its drawbacks: Monte Carlo simulation's is mainly computational time; and first-order analysis are mainly questions of accuracy and representativeness, especially for nonlinear systems and extreme conditions. An improved (advanced) first-order method is presented, where the linearization point varies to match the output level whose exceedance probability is sought. The advanced first-order method is tested on the Streeter-Phelps equation to estimate the probability distribution of critical dissolved-oxygen deficit and critical dissolved oxygen using two hypothetical examples from the literature. The advanced first-order method provides a close approximation of the exceedance probability for the Streeter-Phelps model output estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using less computer time - by two orders of magnitude - regardless of the probability distributions assumed for the uncertain model parameters.

A FRAX model for the estimation of osteoporotic fracture probability in Portugal.

PubMed

Marques, Andréa; Mota, António; Canhão, Helena; Romeu, José Carlos; Machado, Pedro; Ruano, Afonso; Barbosa, Ana Paula; Dias, António Aroso; Silva, Daniel; Araújo, Domingos; Simões, Eugénia; Aguas, Fernanda; Rosendo, Inês; Silva, Inês; Crespo, Jorge; Alves, José Delgado; Costa, Lúcia; Mascarenhas, Mário; Lourenço, Óscar; Ferreira, Pedro Lopes; Lucas, Raquel; Roque, Raquel; Branco, Jaime Cunha; Tavares, Viviana; Johansson, Helena; Kanis, Jonh; Pereira da Silva, José António

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a Portuguese version of the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®). All cases of hip fracture occurred at or after 40 years of age were extracted from the Portuguese National Hospital Discharge Register from 2006 to 2010. Age and sex-ranked population estimates and mortality rates were obtained from National Statistics. Age- and gender stratified incidences were computed and the average of the five years under consideration was taken. Rates for other major fractures were imputed from the epidemiology of Sweden, as undertaken for most national FRAX® models. All methodological aspects and results were submitted to critical appraisal by a wide panel of national experts and representatives of the different stakeholders, including patients. Hip fracture incidence rates were higher in women than in men and increased with age. The lowest incidence was observed in 40-44 years group (14.1 and 4.0 per 100,000 inhabitants for men and women, respectively). The highest rate was observed among the 95-100 age-group (2,577.6 and 3,551.8/100,000 inhabitants, for men and women, respectively). The estimated ten-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture increased with decreasing T-score and with increasing age. Portugal has one of the lowest fracture incidences among European countries. The FRAX® tool has been successfully calibrated to the Portuguese population, and can now be used to estimate the ten-year risk of osteoporotic fractures in this country. All major stakeholders officially endorsed the Portuguese FRAX® model and co-authored this paper.

Iteroparity in the variable environment of the salamander Ambystoma tigrinum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, D.R.; Bailey, L.L.; Wilbur, H.M.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.

2007-01-01

Simultaneous estimation of survival, reproduction, and movement is essential to understanding how species maximize lifetime reproduction in environments that vary across space and time. We conducted a four-year, capture–recapture study of three populations of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum) and used multistate mark–recapture statistical methods to estimate the manner in which movement, survival, and breeding probabilities vary under different environmental conditions across years and among populations and habitats. We inferred how individuals may mitigate risks of mortality and reproductive failure by deferring breeding or by moving among populations. Movement probabilities among populations were extremely low despite high spatiotemporal variation in reproductive success and survival, suggesting possible costs to movements among breeding ponds. Breeding probabilities varied between wet and dry years and according to whether or not breeding was attempted in the previous year. Estimates of survival in the nonbreeding, forest habitat varied among populations but were consistent across time. Survival in breeding ponds was generally high in years with average or high precipitation, except for males in an especially ephemeral pond. A drought year incurred severe survival costs in all ponds to animals that attempted breeding. Female salamanders appear to defer these episodic survival costs of breeding by choosing not to breed in years when the risk of adult mortality is high. Using stochastic simulations of survival and breeding under historical climate conditions, we found that an interaction between breeding probabilities and mortality limits the probability of multiple breeding attempts differently between the sexes and among populations.

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Justin B.

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

PubMed

Kinney, Justin B

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Analysing designed experiments in distance sampling

Treesearch

Stephen T. Buckland; Robin E. Russell; Brett G. Dickson; Victoria A. Saab; Donal N. Gorman; William M. Block

2009-01-01

Distance sampling is a survey technique for estimating the abundance or density of wild animal populations. Detection probabilities of animals inherently differ by species, age class, habitats, or sex. By incorporating the change in an observer's ability to detect a particular class of animals as a function of distance, distance sampling leads to density estimates...

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

PubMed Central

Vilaprinyo, Ester; Gispert, Rosa; Martínez-Alonso, Montserrat; Carles, Misericòrdia; Pla, Roger; Espinàs, Josep-Alfons; Rué, Montserrat

2008-01-01

Background Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia. PMID:19014473

The Nakuru posterior segment eye disease study: methods and prevalence of blindness and visual impairment in Nakuru, Kenya.

PubMed

Mathenge, Wanjiku; Bastawrous, Andrew; Foster, Allen; Kuper, Hannah

2012-10-01

To estimate the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment (VI) in adults aged ≥50 years in the Nakuru district of Kenya and to identify sociodemographic risk factors for these conditions. We also sought to validate the Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness (RAAB) methodology. There were 5010 subjects enumerated for this study. Of these, 4414 participants underwent examination, for a response rate of 88.1%. Cross-sectional, population-based survey. Cluster random samplings with probability proportionate to size procedures were used to select a representative cross-sectional sample of adults aged ≥50 years. Each participant was interviewed, had distance visual acuity (VA) measured with reduced logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution tumbling-E chart, underwent autorefraction, and thereby had measurements of presenting, uncorrected, and best-corrected VA. All participants, regardless of vision, underwent detailed ophthalmic examinations including slit-lamp assessment and dilated retinal photographs. Visual acuity of <6/12. A representative sample of 4414 adults were enumerated (response rate, 88.1%). The prevalence of blindness (VA < 3/60 in better eye) was 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.1%) and of VI, 0.4% (95% CI, 0.3-0.7%); 8.1% (95% CI, 7.2-9.2%); and 5.1% (95% CI, 4.3-6.1%) were severely (<6/60-3/60), moderately (<6/18-6/60), or mildly (<6/12-6/18) visually impaired, respectively. Being male, having less education, having Kalenjin tribal origin, and being ≥80 years old were associated with increased blindness prevalence. Prevalence estimates were comparable to a RAAB performed in the same area 2 years earlier. This survey provides reliable estimates of blindness and VI prevalence in Nakuru. Older age and tribal origin were identified as predictors of these conditions. This survey validates the use of RAAB as a method of estimating blindness and VI prevalence. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On estimating probability of presence from use-availability or presence-background data.

PubMed

Phillips, Steven J; Elith, Jane

2013-06-01

A fundamental ecological modeling task is to estimate the probability that a species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables. For many species, available data consist of "presence" data (locations where the species [or evidence of it] has been observed), together with "background" data, a random sample of available environmental conditions. Recently published papers disagree on whether probability of presence is identifiable from such presence-background data alone. This paper aims to resolve the disagreement, demonstrating that additional information is required. We defined seven simulated species representing various simple shapes of response to environmental variables (constant, linear, convex, unimodal, S-shaped) and ran five logistic model-fitting methods using 1000 presence samples and 10 000 background samples; the simulations were repeated 100 times. The experiment revealed a stark contrast between two groups of methods: those based on a strong assumption that species' true probability of presence exactly matches a given parametric form had highly variable predictions and much larger RMS error than methods that take population prevalence (the fraction of sites in which the species is present) as an additional parameter. For six species, the former group grossly under- or overestimated probability of presence. The cause was not model structure or choice of link function, because all methods were logistic with linear and, where necessary, quadratic terms. Rather, the experiment demonstrates that an estimate of prevalence is not just helpful, but is necessary (except in special cases) for identifying probability of presence. We therefore advise against use of methods that rely on the strong assumption, due to Lele and Keim (recently advocated by Royle et al.) and Lancaster and Imbens. The methods are fragile, and their strong assumption is unlikely to be true in practice. We emphasize, however, that we are not arguing against standard statistical methods such as logistic regression, generalized linear models, and so forth, none of which requires the strong assumption. If probability of presence is required for a given application, there is no panacea for lack of data. Presence-background data must be augmented with an additional datum, e.g., species' prevalence, to reliably estimate absolute (rather than relative) probability of presence.

Men who work at age 70 or older.

PubMed

Ozawa, Martha N; Lum, Terry Y

2005-01-01

The federal policy on older workers has shifted from the encouragement of early withdrawal from the labor force to the encouragement of continuous participation in the labor force. In this light, it is instructive to investigate the backgrounds of elderly people who work at age 70 or older. This article presents the findings of a study, using data from the 1993 Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old Study, that investigated the effects of health, economic conditions (net worth, employer-provided pensions, and supplemental medical insurance coverage), education, and spouse's work status on the probability of working among men aged 70 or older. The study addressed the probability of working, the probability of working fulltime and of working part-time, and the probability of being self-employed and of being employed by others. Implications for policy are discussed.

Accuracy of physician-estimated probability of brain injury in children with minor head trauma.

PubMed

Daymont, Carrie; Klassen, Terry P; Osmond, Martin H

2015-07-01

To evaluate the accuracy of physician estimates of the probability of intracranial injury in children with minor head trauma. This is a subanalysis of a large prospective multicentre cohort study performed from July 2001 to November 2005. During data collection for the derivation of a clinical prediction rule for children with minor head trauma, physicians indicated their estimate of the probability of brain injury visible on computed tomography (P-Injury) and the probability of injury requiring intervention (P-Intervention) by choosing one of the following options: 0%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 75%, 90%, and 100%. We compared observed frequencies to expected frequencies of injury using Pearson's χ2-test in analyses stratified by the level of each type of predicted probability and by year of age. In 3771 eligible subjects, the mean predicted risk was 4.6% (P-Injury) and 1.4% (P-Intervention). The observed frequency of injury was 4.1% (any injury) and 0.6% (intervention). For all levels of P-Injury from 1% to 40%, the observed frequency of injury was consistent with the expected frequency. The observed frequencies for the 50%, 75%, and 90% levels were lower than expected (p<0.05). For estimates of P-Intervention, the observed frequency was consistently higher than the expected frequency. Physicians underestimated risk for infants (mean P-Intervention 6.2%, actual risk 12.3%, p<0.001). Physician estimates of probability of any brain injury in children were collectively accurate for children with low and moderate degrees of predicted risk. Risk was underestimated in infants.

Passage and survival probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Dam, Oregon, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Evans, Scott D.; Haner, Philip V.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Amy C.; Smith, Collin D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

2014-01-01

This report describes studies of juvenile-salmon dam passage and apparent survival at Cougar Dam, Oregon, during two operating conditions in 2012. Cougar Dam is a 158-meter tall rock-fill dam used primarily for flood control, and passes water through a temperature control tower to either a powerhouse penstock or to a regulating outlet (RO). The temperature control tower has moveable weir gates to enable water of different elevations and temperatures to be drawn through the dam to control water temperatures downstream. A series of studies of downstream dam passage of juvenile salmonids were begun after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration determined that Cougar Dam was impacting the viability of anadromous fish stocks. The primary objectives of the studies described in this report were to estimate the route-specific fish passage probabilities at the dam and to estimate the survival probabilities of fish passing through the RO. The first set of dam operating conditions, studied in November, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,589 feet, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the weir gates, (3) most water routed through the turbines during the day and through the RO during the night, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 1.2 feet during the day and 3.2 feet during the night. The second set of dam operating conditions, studied in December, consisted of (1) a mean reservoir elevation of 1,507 ft, (2) water entering the temperature control tower through the RO bypass, (3) all water passing through the RO, and (4) mean RO gate openings of 7.3 feet during the day and 7.5 feet during the night. The studies were based on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) surgically implanted with radio transmitters and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags. Inferences about general dam passage percentage and timing of volitional migrants were based on surface-acclimated fish released in the reservoir. Dam passage and apparent survival probabilities were estimated using the Route-Specific-Survival Model with data from surface-acclimated fish released near the water surface directly upstream of the temperature control tower (treatment group) and slightly downstream of the dam (control group). In this study, apparent survival is the joint probability of surviving and migrating through the study area during the life of the transmitters. Two rearing groups were used to enable sufficient sample sizes for the studies. The groups differed in feed type, and for the December study only, the rearing location. Fish from each group were divided nearly equally among all combinations of release sites, release times, and surgeons. The sizes, travel times, and survivals of the two rearing groups were similar. There were statistical differences in fish lengths and travel times of the two groups, but they were small and likely were not biologically meaningful. There also was evidence of a difference in single-release estimates of survival between the rearing groups during the December study, but the differences had little effect on the relative survival estimates so the analyses of passage and survival were based on data from the rearing groups pooled. Conditions during the December study were more conducive to passing volitionally migrating fish than conditions during the November study. The passage percentage of the fish released in the reservoir was similar between studies (about 70 percent), but the passage occurred in a median of 1.0 day during the December study and a median of 9.3 days during the November study. More than 93 percent of the dam passage of volitionally migrating fish occurred at night during each study. This finding corroborates results of previous studies at Cougar Dam and suggests that the operating conditions at night are most important to volitionally migrating fish, given the current configuration of the dam. Most fish released near the temperature control tower passed through the RO. A total of 92.2 percent of the treatment group passed through the RO during the November study and the RO was the only route open during the December study. The assumptions of the survival model were either met or adjusted for during each study. There was little evidence that tagger skill or premature failure of radio transmitters had an effect on survival estimates. There were statistically significant differences in travel times between treatment and control groups through several of the river reaches they had in common, but the differences were typically only a few hours, and the two groups likely experienced the same in-river conditions. There was direct evidence of bias due to detection of euthanized fish with live transmitters released as part of the study design. The bias was ameliorated by adjusting the survival estimates for the probability of detecting dead fish with live transmitters, which reduced the estimated survival probabilities by about 0.02. The data and models indicated that the treatment effect was not fully expressed until the study reach terminating with Marshall Island Park on the Willamette River, a distance of 105.8 kilometers downstream of Cougar Dam. This was the first reach in which the 95-percent confidence interval of the estimated reach-specific relative survival overlapped 1.0, indicating similar survival of treatment and control groups. The median travel time of the treatment group from release to Marshall Island Park was 1.64 days during the November study and 1.36 days during the December study. The survival probability of fish that passed into the RO was greater during the December study than during the November study. The relative survival probability of fish passing through the RO was 0.4594 (standard error [SE] 0.0543) during the November study and 0.7389 (SE 0.1160) during the December study. These estimates represent relative survival probabilities from release near Cougar Dam to the Marshall Island site. The estimated survival probability of RO passage was lower than previous studies based on balloon and PIT tags, but higher than a similar study based on radio transmitters. We suggest that, apart from dam operations, the differences in survival primarily are due to the release location. We hypothesize that the balloon- and PIT-tagged fish released through a hose at a point near the RO gate opening experienced more benign conditions than the radio-tagged fish passing the RO volitionally. This hypothesis could be tested with further study. An alternative hypothesis is that some live fish remained within the study area beyond the life of their radio transmitter. The results from these and previous studies indicate that entrainment and survival of juvenile salmonids passing Cougar Dam varies with dam operating conditions. The condition most conducive to dam passage has been the discharge and low pool elevation condition tested during December 2012. That condition included large RO gate openings and was the condition with the highest dam passage survival.

Prevalence of chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system.

PubMed

Harzke, Amy J; Baillargeon, Jacques G; Pruitt, Sandi L; Pulvino, John S; Paar, David P; Kelley, Michael F

2010-05-01

Given the rapid growth and aging of the US prison population in recent years, the disease profile and health care needs of inmates portend to have far-reaching public health implications. Although numerous studies have examined infectious disease prevalence and treatment in incarcerated populations, little is known about the prevalence of non-infectious chronic medical conditions in US prison populations. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of selected non-infectious chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system. The study population consisted of the total census of inmates who were incarcerated in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for any duration from September 1, 2006 through August 31, 2007 (N=234,031). Information on medical diagnoses was obtained from a system-wide electronic medical record system. Overall crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were as follows: hypertension, 18.8%; asthma, 5.4%; diabetes, 4.2%; ischemic heart disease, 1.7%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 0.96%; and cerebrovascular disease, 0.23%. Nearly one quarter (24.5%) of the study population had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for asthma, crude prevalence estimates of the selected conditions increased monotonically with age. Nearly two thirds (64.6%) of inmates who were >or=55 years of age had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for diabetes, crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were lower among Hispanic inmates than among non-Hispanic White inmates and African American inmates. Although age-standardized prevalence estimates for the selected conditions did not appear to exceed age-standardized estimates from the US general population, a large number of inmates were affected by one or more of these conditions. As the prison population continues to grow and to age, the burden of these conditions on correctional and community health care systems can be expected to increase.

Towards national mapping of aquatic condition (II): Predicting the probable biological condition of USA streams and rivers

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s National River and Stream Assessment (NRSA) uses spatially balanced sampling to estimate the proportion of streams within the conterminous US (CONUS) that deviate from least-disturbed biological condition (BC). These assessments do not infer BC at un-sampled st...

Bayesian pretest probability estimation for primary malignant bone tumors based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER) database.

PubMed

Benndorf, Matthias; Neubauer, Jakob; Langer, Mathias; Kotter, Elmar

2017-03-01

In the diagnostic process of primary bone tumors, patient age, tumor localization and to a lesser extent sex affect the differential diagnosis. We therefore aim to develop a pretest probability calculator for primary malignant bone tumors based on population data taking these variables into account. We access the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute, 2015 release) database and analyze data of all primary malignant bone tumors diagnosed between 1973 and 2012. We record age at diagnosis, tumor localization according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-O-3) and sex. We take relative probability of the single tumor entity as a surrogate parameter for unadjusted pretest probability. We build a probabilistic (naïve Bayes) classifier to calculate pretest probabilities adjusted for age, tumor localization and sex. We analyze data from 12,931 patients (647 chondroblastic osteosarcomas, 3659 chondrosarcomas, 1080 chordomas, 185 dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas, 2006 Ewing's sarcomas, 281 fibroblastic osteosarcomas, 129 fibrosarcomas, 291 fibrous malignant histiocytomas, 289 malignant giant cell tumors, 238 myxoid chondrosarcomas, 3730 osteosarcomas, 252 parosteal osteosarcomas, 144 telangiectatic osteosarcomas). We make our probability calculator accessible at http://ebm-radiology.com/bayesbone/index.html . We provide exhaustive tables for age and localization data. Results from tenfold cross-validation show that in 79.8 % of cases the pretest probability is correctly raised. Our approach employs population data to calculate relative pretest probabilities for primary malignant bone tumors. The calculator is not diagnostic in nature. However, resulting probabilities might serve as an initial evaluation of probabilities of tumors on the differential diagnosis list.

An estimation method of the direct benefit of a waterlogging control project applicable to the changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zengmei, L.; Guanghua, Q.; Zishen, C.

2015-05-01

The direct benefit of a waterlogging control project is reflected by the reduction or avoidance of waterlogging loss. Before and after the construction of a waterlogging control project, the disaster-inducing environment in the waterlogging-prone zone is generally different. In addition, the category, quantity and spatial distribution of the disaster-bearing bodies are also changed more or less. Therefore, under the changing environment, the direct benefit of a waterlogging control project should be the reduction of waterlogging losses compared to conditions with no control project. Moreover, the waterlogging losses with or without the project should be the mathematical expectations of the waterlogging losses when rainstorms of all frequencies meet various water levels in the drainage-accepting zone. So an estimation model of the direct benefit of waterlogging control is proposed. Firstly, on the basis of a Copula function, the joint distribution of the rainstorms and the water levels are established, so as to obtain their joint probability density function. Secondly, according to the two-dimensional joint probability density distribution, the dimensional domain of integration is determined, which is then divided into small domains so as to calculate the probability for each of the small domains and the difference between the average waterlogging loss with and without a waterlogging control project, called the regional benefit of waterlogging control project, under the condition that rainstorms in the waterlogging-prone zone meet the water level in the drainage-accepting zone. Finally, it calculates the weighted mean of the project benefit of all small domains, with probability as the weight, and gets the benefit of the waterlogging control project. Taking the estimation of benefit of a waterlogging control project in Yangshan County, Guangdong Province, as an example, the paper briefly explains the procedures in waterlogging control project benefit estimation. The results show that the waterlogging control benefit estimation model constructed is applicable to the changing conditions that occur in both the disaster-inducing environment of the waterlogging-prone zone and disaster-bearing bodies, considering all conditions when rainstorms of all frequencies meet different water levels in the drainage-accepting zone. Thus, the estimation method of waterlogging control benefit can reflect the actual situation more objectively, and offer a scientific basis for rational decision-making for waterlogging control projects.

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2008-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented. PMID:18953423

Survival analysis for the missing censoring indicator model using kernel density estimation techniques.

PubMed

Subramanian, Sundarraman

2006-01-01

This article concerns asymptotic theory for a new estimator of a survival function in the missing censoring indicator model of random censorship. Specifically, the large sample results for an inverse probability-of-non-missingness weighted estimator of the cumulative hazard function, so far not available, are derived, including an almost sure representation with rate for a remainder term, and uniform strong consistency with rate of convergence. The estimator is based on a kernel estimate for the conditional probability of non-missingness of the censoring indicator. Expressions for its bias and variance, in turn leading to an expression for the mean squared error as a function of the bandwidth, are also obtained. The corresponding estimator of the survival function, whose weak convergence is derived, is asymptotically efficient. A numerical study, comparing the performances of the proposed and two other currently existing efficient estimators, is presented.

Uranium distribution and 'excessive' U-He ages in iron meteoritic troilite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, D. E.

1985-01-01

Fission tracking techniques were used to measure the uranium distribution in meteoritic troilite and graphite. The obtained fission tracking data showed a heterogeneous distribution of tracks with a significant portion of track density present in the form of uranium clusters at least 10 microns in size. The matrix containing the clusters was also heterogeneous in composition with U concentrations of about 0.2-4.7 ppb. U/He ages could not be estimated on the basis of the heterogeneous U distributions, so previously reported estimates of U/He ages in the presolar range are probably invalid.

Disentangling age–gender interactions associated with risks of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in the Sultanate of Oman

PubMed Central

Al-Aamri, Amira K; Padmadas, Sabu S; Zhang, Li-Chun; Al-Maniri, Abdullah A

2017-01-01

Objective Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years lost in Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Injury prevention strategies often overlook the interaction of individual and behavioural risk factors in assessing the severity of RTI outcomes. We conducted a systematic investigation of the underlying interactive effects of age and gender on the severity of fatal and non-fatal RTI outcomes in the Sultanate of Oman. Methods We used the Royal Oman Police national database of road traffic crashes for the period 2010–2014. Our study was based on 35 785 registered incidents: of these, 10.2% fatal injuries, 6.2% serious, 27.3% moderate, 37.3% mild injuries and 19% only vehicle damage but no human injuries. We applied a generalised ordered logit regression to estimate the effect of age and gender on RTI severity, controlling for risk behaviours, personal characteristics, vehicle, road, traffic, environment conditions and geographical location. Results The most dominant group at risk of all types of RTIs was young male drivers. The probability of severe incapacitating injuries was the highest for drivers aged 25–29 (26.6%) years, whereas the probability of fatal injuries was the highest for those aged 20–24 (26.9%) years. Analysis of three-way interactions of age, gender and causes of crash show that overspeeding was the primary cause of different types of RTIs. In particular, the probability of fatal injuries among male drivers attributed to overspeeding ranged from 3%–6% for those aged 35 years and above to 13.4% and 17.7% for those aged 25–29 years and 20–24 years, respectively. Conclusions The high burden of severe and fatal RTIs in Oman was primarily attributed to overspeed driving behaviour of young male drivers in the 20–29 years age range. Our findings highlight the critical need for designing early gender-sensitive road safety interventions targeting young male and female drivers. PMID:29018585

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

PubMed

Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

2015-12-01

This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, T.L.; Blair, J.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

2006-01-01

Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Dose-volume histogram prediction using density estimation.

PubMed

Skarpman Munter, Johanna; Sjölund, Jens

2015-09-07

Knowledge of what dose-volume histograms can be expected for a previously unseen patient could increase consistency and quality in radiotherapy treatment planning. We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict such dose-volume histograms. The key to the approach is the framing of dose-volume histograms in a probabilistic setting.The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of some predictive features and the dose. The joint distribution immediately provides an estimate of the conditional probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. The prediction consists of estimating, from the new patient, the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimate of the dose-volume histogram.To illustrate how the proposed method relates to previously proposed methods, we use the signed distance to the target boundary as a single predictive feature. As a proof-of-concept, we predicted dose-volume histograms for the brainstems of 22 acoustic schwannoma patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery, and for the lungs of 9 lung cancer patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy. Comparing with two previous attempts at dose-volume histogram prediction we find that, given the same input data, the predictions are similar.In summary, we propose a method for dose-volume histogram prediction that exploits the intrinsic probabilistic properties of dose-volume histograms. We argue that the proposed method makes up for some deficiencies in previously proposed methods, thereby potentially increasing ease of use, flexibility and ability to perform well with small amounts of training data.

A methodological framework to assess PMP and PMF in snow-dominated watersheds under changing climate conditions - A case study of three watersheds in Québec (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert

2018-06-01

Climate change will affect precipitation and flood regimes. It is anticipated that the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) will be modified in a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify and analyze climate change influences on PMP and PMF in three watersheds with different climatic conditions across the province of Québec, Canada. Output data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was used to estimate PMP and Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) in future climate projections, which was then used to force the SWAT hydrological model to estimate PMF. PMP and PMF values were estimated for two time horizons each spanning 30 years: 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2041-2070 (future). PMP and PMF were separately analyzed for two seasons: summer-fall and spring. Results show that PMF in the watershed located in southern Québec would remain unchanged in the future horizon, but the trend for the watersheds located in the northeastern and northern areas of the province is an increase of up to 11%.

Influence of level of education on disability free life expectancy by sex: the ILSA study.

PubMed

Minicuci, N; Noale, M

2005-12-01

To assess the effect of education on Disability Free Life Expectancy among older Italians, using a hierarchical model as indicator of disability, with estimates based on the multistate life table method and IMaCh software. Data were obtained from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging which considered a random sample of 5632 individuals. Total life expectancy ranged from 16.5 years for men aged 65 years to 6 years for men aged 80. The age range for women was 19.6 and 8.4 years, respectively. For both sexes, increasing age was associated with a lower probability of recovery from a mild state of disability, with a greater probability of worsening for all individuals presenting an independent state at baseline, and with a greater probability of dying except for women from a mild state of disability. A medium/high educational level was associated with a greater probability of recovery only in men with a mild state of disability at baseline, and with a lower probability of worsening in both sexes, except for men with a mild state of disability at baseline. The positive effects of high education are well established in most research work and, being a modifiable factor, strategies focused on increasing level of education and, hence strengthening access to information and use of health services would produce significant benefits.

Propensity Score Weighting with Error-Prone Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Lockwood, J. R.; Setodji, Claude M.

2011-01-01

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimates are widely used in applications where data are missing due to nonresponse or censoring or in observational studies of causal effects where the counterfactuals cannot be observed. This extensive literature has shown the estimators to be consistent and asymptotically normal under very general conditions,…

Multiple Chronic Conditions and Hospitalizations Among Recipients of Long-Term Services and Supports

PubMed Central

Van Cleave, Janet H.; Egleston, Brian L.; Abbott, Katherine M.; Hirschman, Karen B.; Rao, Aditi; Naylor, Mary D.

2016-01-01

Background Among older adults receiving long term-services and supports (LTSS), debilitating hospitalizations is a pervasive clinical and research problem. Multiple chronic conditions (MCC) are prevalent in LTSS recipients. However, the combination of MCC and diseases associated with hospitalizations of LTSS recipients is unclear. Objective The purpose of this analysis was to determine the association between classes of MCC in newly enrolled LTSS recipients and the number of hospitalizations over a one-year period following enrollment. Methods This report is based on secondary analysis of extant data from a longitudinal cohort study of 470 new recipients of LTSS, ages 60 years and older, receiving services in assisted living facilities, nursing homes, or through home- and community-based services. Using baseline chronic conditions reported in medical records, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify classes of MCC and posterior probabilities of membership in each class. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the relative ratio between posterior probabilities of class membership and number of hospitalizations during the 3 month period prior to the start of LTSS (baseline) and then every three months forward through 12 months. Results Three latent MCC-based classes named Cardiopulmonary, Cerebrovascular/Paralysis, and All Other Conditions were identified. The Cardiopulmonary class was associated with elevated numbers of hospitalization compared to the All Other Conditions class (relative ratio [RR] = 1.88, 95% CI [1.33, 2.65], p < .001). Conclusion Older LTSS recipients with a combination of MCCs that includes cardiopulmonary conditions have increased risk for hospitalization. PMID:27801713

Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

2013-04-01

Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Iodine-xenon studies of Allende inclusions - Eggs and the Pink Angel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swindle, T. D.; Caffee, M. W.; Hohenberg, C. M.

1988-01-01

The I-Xe systems of six Allende inclusions (five Eggs and the Pink Angel) appear to have been altered by nonnebular secondary processes. Evidence for this includes temperature-ordered variations in the initial I isotopic composition within several objects (with older apparent I-Xe ages associated with higher extraction temperatures) and the absence of primitive I-Xe ages. The span of apparent ages seen in Allende objects (10 Myr or more) is probably too long to reflect any nebular process, so at least some alteration probably occurred ont the parent body. The range in initial (Pu-244)/(U-238) ratios for the Eggs (0.003-0.014) includes the current best estimates of the bulk solar system value (0.004-0.007). For Egg 3, the Pu/U ratio varies by a factor of two between extractions, probably the result of fractionation of Pu from U among different phases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swindle, T.D.; Caffee, M.W.; Hohenberg, C.M.

The iodine-xenon systems of six Allende inclusions (five Eggs and the Pink Angel) appear to have been altered by non-nebular secondary processes. Evidence for this includes temperature-ordered variations in the initial I isotopic composition within several objects (with older apparent I-Xe ages associated with higher extraction temperatures) and the absence of primitive I-Xe ages. The span of apparent ages seen in Allende objects (10 Ma or more) is probably too long to reflect any nebular process, so at least some alteration probably occurred on the parent body. The range in initial {sup 244}Pu/{sup 238}U ratios for the Eggs (3-14 {times}more » 10{sup minus 3}) includes the current best estimates of the bulk solar system value (4-7 {times} 10{sup minus 3}). For Egg 3, the Pu/U ratio varies by a factor of two between extractions, probably the result of fractionation of Pu from U among different phases.« less

Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process.

PubMed

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2011-09-01

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.

Increased total DNA damage and oxidative stress in brain are associated with decreased longevity in high sucrose diet fed WNIN/Gr-Ob obese rats.

PubMed

Potukuchi, Aruna; Addepally, Uma; Sindhu, Kirankumar; Manchala, Raghunath

2017-06-01

Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) are chronic nutrient-related disorders that occur together and pose a grave burden to society. They are among the most common causes of ageing and death. Obesity and T2D per se accelerate ageing albeit the underlying mechanisms are unclear yet. Also, it is not clear whether or not superimposing T2D on obesity accelerates ageing. Present study validated the hypothesis, 'super-imposing T2D on obesity accelerates ageing' in WNIN/Gr-Ob, the impaired glucose tolerant, obese rat as the model and evaluated probable underlying mechanisms. To estimate the survival analysis of WNIN/Gr-Ob rats induced with T2D. To determine the extent of DNA damage and oxidative stress in the brain, the master controller of the body, in WNIN/Gr-Ob rats with/without high sucrose induced T2D/aggravation of insulin resistance (IR) after 3 and 6 months of feeding. T2D was induced/IR was aggravated by feeding high sucrose diet (HSD) to 9-10 weeks old, male WNIN/Gr-Ob rats. Survival percentage was determined statistically by Kaplan-Meier estimator. Neuronal DNA damage was quantified by the Comet assay while the oxidative stress and antioxidant status were evaluated from the levels of malonaldialdehyde, reduced glutathione, and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity. HSD feeding decreased longevity of WNIN/Gr-Ob rats and was associated with significantly higher total neuronal DNA damage after three months of feeding but not later. In line with this was the increased neuronal oxidative stress (lipid peroxidation) and decreased antioxidant status (reduced glutathione and SOD activity) in HSD than Starch-based diet (SBD) fed rats. The results suggest that HSD feeding decreased the longevity of WNIN/Gr-Ob obese rats probably by increasing oxidative stress and aggravating IR, a condition that precedes T2D.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain). PMID:19754959

Using Correlation to Compute Better Probability Estimates in Plan Graphs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryce, Daniel; Smith, David E.

2006-01-01

Plan graphs are commonly used in planning to help compute heuristic "distance" estimates between states and goals. A few authors have also attempted to use plan graphs in probabilistic planning to compute estimates of the probability that propositions can be achieved and actions can be performed. This is done by propagating probability information forward through the plan graph from the initial conditions through each possible action to the action effects, and hence to the propositions at the next layer of the plan graph. The problem with these calculations is that they make very strong independence assumptions - in particular, they usually assume that the preconditions for each action are independent of each other. This can lead to gross overestimates in probability when the plans for those preconditions interfere with each other. It can also lead to gross underestimates of probability when there is synergy between the plans for two or more preconditions. In this paper we introduce a notion of the binary correlation between two propositions and actions within a plan graph, show how to propagate this information within a plan graph, and show how this improves probability estimates for planning. This notion of correlation can be thought of as a continuous generalization of the notion of mutual exclusion (mutex) often used in plan graphs. At one extreme (correlation=0) two propositions or actions are completely mutex. With correlation = 1, two propositions or actions are independent, and with correlation > 1, two propositions or actions are synergistic. Intermediate values can and do occur indicating different degrees to which propositions and action interfere or are synergistic. We compare this approach with another recent approach by Bryce that computes probability estimates using Monte Carlo simulation of possible worlds in plan graphs.

A poisson process model for hip fracture risk.

PubMed

Schechner, Zvi; Luo, Gangming; Kaufman, Jonathan J; Siffert, Robert S

2010-08-01

The primary method for assessing fracture risk in osteoporosis relies primarily on measurement of bone mass. Estimation of fracture risk is most often evaluated using logistic or proportional hazards models. Notwithstanding the success of these models, there is still much uncertainty as to who will or will not suffer a fracture. This has led to a search for other components besides mass that affect bone strength. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new mechanistic stochastic model that characterizes the risk of hip fracture in an individual. A Poisson process is used to model the occurrence of falls, which are assumed to occur at a rate, lambda. The load induced by a fall is assumed to be a random variable that has a Weibull probability distribution. The combination of falls together with loads leads to a compound Poisson process. By retaining only those occurrences of the compound Poisson process that result in a hip fracture, a thinned Poisson process is defined that itself is a Poisson process. The fall rate is modeled as an affine function of age, and hip strength is modeled as a power law function of bone mineral density (BMD). The risk of hip fracture can then be computed as a function of age and BMD. By extending the analysis to a Bayesian framework, the conditional densities of BMD given a prior fracture and no prior fracture can be computed and shown to be consistent with clinical observations. In addition, the conditional probabilities of fracture given a prior fracture and no prior fracture can also be computed, and also demonstrate results similar to clinical data. The model elucidates the fact that the hip fracture process is inherently random and improvements in hip strength estimation over and above that provided by BMD operate in a highly "noisy" environment and may therefore have little ability to impact clinical practice.

The combined effect of age and basal follicle-stimulating hormone on the cost of a live birth at assisted reproductive technology.

PubMed

Henne, Melinda B; Stegmann, Barbara J; Neithardt, Adrienne B; Catherino, William H; Armstrong, Alicia Y; Kao, Tzu-Cheg; Segars, James H

2008-01-01

To predict the cost of a delivery following assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Cost analysis based on retrospective chart analysis. University-based ART program. Women aged >or=26 and

Local linear estimation of concordance probability with application to covariate effects models on association for bivariate failure-time data.

PubMed

Ding, Aidong Adam; Hsieh, Jin-Jian; Wang, Weijing

2015-01-01

Bivariate survival analysis has wide applications. In the presence of covariates, most literature focuses on studying their effects on the marginal distributions. However covariates can also affect the association between the two variables. In this article we consider the latter issue by proposing a nonstandard local linear estimator for the concordance probability as a function of covariates. Under the Clayton copula, the conditional concordance probability has a simple one-to-one correspondence with the copula parameter for different data structures including those subject to independent or dependent censoring and dependent truncation. The proposed method can be used to study how covariates affect the Clayton association parameter without specifying marginal regression models. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived and their finite-sample performances are examined via simulations. Finally, for illustration, we apply the proposed method to analyze a bone marrow transplant data set.

Right tail increasing dependence between scores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, M.; García, Jesús E.; González-López, V. A.; Romano, N.

2017-07-01

In this paper we investigate the behavior of the conditional probability Prob(U > u|V > v) of two records coming from students of an undergraduate course, where U is the score of calculus I, scaled in [0, 1] and V is the score of physics scaled in [0, 1], the physics subject is part of the admission test of the university. For purposes of comparison, we consider two different undergraduate courses, electrical engineering and mechanical engineering, during nine years, from 2003 to 2011. Through a Bayesian perspective we estimate Prob(U > u|V > v) year by year and course by course. We conclude that U is right tail increasing in V, in both courses and for all the years. Moreover, over these nine years, we observe different ranges of variability for the estimated probabilities of electrical engineering when compared to the estimated probabilities of mechanical engineering.

Diagnosis and management of polycystic ovary syndrome in the UK (2004-2014): a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Ding, Tao; Baio, Gianluca; Hardiman, Paul J; Petersen, Irene; Sammon, Cormac

2016-07-11

To estimate the incidence and prevalence of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in UK primary care and investigate prescribing patterns before and after a PCOS diagnosis. Retrospective cohort study. UK primary care (2004-2014). Women aged 15-45 years. The incidence and prevalence of diagnosed PCOS and probable PCOS (ie, those without a confirmed diagnosis but with at least 2 PCOS features recorded within 3 years). Among women with diagnosed or probable PCOS, the prevalence of prescribing of drugs typically used to treat PCOS was calculated prior to and in the 24 months after the diagnosis of PCOS. We identified 7233 women with PCOS diagnoses and 7057 women with records suggestive of probable PCOS, corresponding to incidence rates of 0.93 and 0.91 per 1000 person-years at risk (PYAR) and an overall rate of 1.84 per 1000 PYAR. Women aged 20-24 years and women living in deprived areas had the highest incidence of PCOS. The prevalence of PCOS in 2014 was ∼2%. The proportion of women with a prescription in the 24 months after their PCOS index date varied by drug type: 10.2% metformin, 15.2% combined oral contraceptives, 18.8% acne-related treatments, 1.93% clomiphene, 1.0% spironolactone, 0.28% cyproterone and 3.11% eflornithine. Acne-related treatments were more commonly used to treat probable (28.3%) than diagnosed (12.3%) cases, while metformin was prescribed much more commonly in diagnosed cases. In conclusion, compared to rates estimated in community samples, the incidence and prevalence of women presenting in primary care with PCOS diagnoses and features are low, indicating that PCOS is an under-recognised condition. Although considerable variation is observed in treatments prescribed to women with PCOS, the treatments initiated following a confirmed diagnosis generally reflect the long-term prognostic concerns raised in PCOS consensuses. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Bayesian probability analysis: a prospective demonstration of its clinical utility in diagnosing coronary disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detrano, R.; Yiannikas, J.; Salcedo, E.E.

One hundred fifty-four patients referred for coronary arteriography were prospectively studied with stress electrocardiography, stress thallium scintigraphy, cine fluoroscopy (for coronary calcifications), and coronary angiography. Pretest probabilities of coronary disease were determined based on age, sex, and type of chest pain. These and pooled literature values for the conditional probabilities of test results based on disease state were used in Bayes theorem to calculate posttest probabilities of disease. The results of the three noninvasive tests were compared for statistical independence, a necessary condition for their simultaneous use in Bayes theorem. The test results were found to demonstrate pairwise independence inmore » patients with and those without disease. Some dependencies that were observed between the test results and the clinical variables of age and sex were not sufficient to invalidate application of the theorem. Sixty-eight of the study patients had at least one major coronary artery obstruction of greater than 50%. When these patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability subgroups according to their pretest probabilities, noninvasive test results analyzed by Bayesian probability analysis appropriately advanced 17 of them by at least one probability subgroup while only seven were moved backward. Of the 76 patients without disease, 34 were appropriately moved into a lower probability subgroup while 10 were incorrectly moved up. We conclude that posttest probabilities calculated from Bayes theorem more accurately classified patients with and without disease than did pretest probabilities, thus demonstrating the utility of the theorem in this application.« less

Study on optimization method of test conditions for fatigue crack detection using lock-in vibrothermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Qing-xu; Zhu, Jun-zhen; Feng, Fu-zhou; Xu, Chao; Sun, Ji-wei

2017-06-01

In this paper, the lock-in vibrothermography (LVT) is utilized for defect detection. Specifically, for a metal plate with an artificial fatigue crack, the temperature rise of the defective area is used for analyzing the influence of different test conditions, i.e. engagement force, excitation intensity, and modulated frequency. The multivariate nonlinear and logistic regression models are employed to estimate the POD (probability of detection) and POA (probability of alarm) of fatigue crack, respectively. The resulting optimal selection of test conditions is presented. The study aims to provide an optimized selection method of the test conditions in the vibrothermography system with the enhanced detection ability.

The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

PubMed Central

Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

2013-01-01

Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

Multiple Chronic Conditions and Labor Force Outcomes: A Population Study of U.S. Adults

PubMed Central

Ward, Brian W.

2015-01-01

Background Although 1-in-5 adults have multiple (≥2) chronic conditions, limited attention has been given to the association between multiple chronic conditions and employment. Methods Cross-sectional data (2011 National Health Interview Survey) and multivariate regression analyses were used to examine the association among multiple chronic conditions, employment, and labor force outcomes for U.S. adults aged 18–64 years, controlling for covariates. Results Among U.S. adults aged 18–64 years (unweighted n=25,458), having multiple chronic conditions reduced employment probability by 11%–29%. Some individual chronic conditions decreased employment probability. Among employed adults (unweighted n=16,096), having multiple chronic conditions increased the average number of work days missed due to injury/illness in the past year by 3–9 days. Conclusions Multiple chronic conditions are be a barrier to employment and increase the number of work days missed, placing affected individuals at a financial disadvantage. Researchers interested in examining consequences of multiple chronic conditions should give consideration to labor force outcomes. PMID:26103096

Travel distance and sociodemographic correlates of potentially avoidable emergency department visits in California, 2006-2010: an observational study.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Hibbert, James; Cheng, Xi; Bennett, Kevin

2015-03-21

Use of the hospital emergency department (ED) for medical conditions not likely to require immediate treatment is a controversial topic. It has been faulted for ED overcrowding, increased expenditures, and decreased quality of care. On the other hand, such avoidable ED utilization may be a manifestation of barriers to primary care access. A random 10% subsample of all ED visits with unmasked variables, or approximately 7.2% of all ED visits in California between 2006 and 2010 are used in the analysis. Using panel data methods, we employ linear probability and fractional probit models with hospital fixed effects to analyze the associations between avoidable ED utilization in California and observable patient characteristics. We also test whether shorter estimated road distances to the hospital ED are correlated with non-urgent ED utilization, as defined by the New York University ED Algorithm. We then investigate whether proximity of a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) is correlated with reductions in non-urgent ED utilization among Medicaid patients. We find that relative to the reference group of adults aged 35-64, younger patients generally have higher scores for non-urgent conditions and lower scores for urgent conditions. However, elderly patients (≥65) use the ED for conditions more likely to be urgent. Relative to male and white patients, respectively, female patients and all identified racial and ethnic minorities use the ED for conditions more likely to be non-urgent. Patients with non-commercial insurance coverage also use the ED for conditions more likely to be non-urgent. Medicare and Medicaid patients who live closer to the hospital ED have higher probability scores for non-emergent visits. However, among Medicaid enrollees, those who live in zip codes with an FQHC within 0.5 mile of the zip code population centroid visit the ED for medical conditions less likely to be non-emergent. These patterns of ED utilization point to potential barriers to care among historically vulnerable groups, observable even when using rough estimates of travel distances and avoidable ED utilization.

Prevalence of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder in the Kashmir Valley

PubMed Central

Lenglet, Annick; Ariti, Cono; Shah, Showkat; Shah, Helal; Ara, Shabnum; Viney, Kerri; Janes, Simon; Pintaldi, Giovanni

2017-01-01

Background Following the partition of India in 1947, the Kashmir Valley has been subject to continual political insecurity and ongoing conflict, the region remains highly militarised. We conducted a representative cross-sectional population-based survey of adults to estimate the prevalence and predictors of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the 10 districts of the Kashmir Valley. Methods Between October and December 2015, we interviewed 5519 out of 5600 invited participants, ≥18 years of age, randomly sampled using a probability proportional to size cluster sampling design. We estimated the prevalence of a probable psychological disorder using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25) and the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ-16). Both screening instruments had been culturally adapted and translated. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for developing symptoms of psychological distress. Findings The estimated prevalence of mental distress in adults in the Kashmir Valley was 45% (95% CI 42.6 to 47.0). We identified 41% (95% CI 39.2 to 43.4) of adults with probable depression, 26% (95% CI 23.8 to 27.5) with probable anxiety and 19% (95% CI 17.5 to 21.2) with probable PTSD. The three disorders were associated with the following characteristics: being female, over 55 years of age, having had no formal education, living in a rural area and being widowed/divorced or separated. A dose–response association was found between the number of traumatic events experienced or witnessed and all three mental disorders. Interpretation The implementation of mental health awareness programmes, interventions aimed at high risk groups and addressing trauma-related symptoms from all causes are needed in the Kashmir Valley. PMID:29082026

The impact of comorbid disease history on all-cause and cancer-specific mortality in myeloid leukemia and myeloma - a Swedish population-based study.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Mohammad; Cao, Yang; Glimelius, Ingrid; Bottai, Matteo; Eloranta, Sandra; Smedby, Karin E

2015-11-05

Comorbidity increases overall mortality in patients diagnosed with hematological malignancies. The impact of comorbidity on cancer-specific mortality, taking competing risks into account, has not been evaluated. Using the Swedish Cancer Register, we identified patients aged >18 years with a first diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML, N = 2,550), chronic myeloid leukemia (CML, N = 1,000) or myeloma (N = 4,584) 2002-2009. Comorbid disease history was assessed through in- and out-patient care as defined in the Charlson comorbidity index. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) were estimated through 2012 using Poisson regression. Probabilities of cancer-specific death were computed using flexible parametric survival models. Comorbidity was associated with increased all-cause as well as cancer-specific mortality (cancer-specific MRR: AML = 1.27, 95 % CI: 1.15-1.40; CML = 1.28, 0.96-1.70; myeloma = 1.17, 1.08-1.28) compared with patients without comorbidity. Disorders associated with higher cancer-specific mortality were renal disease (in patients with AML, CML and myeloma), cerebrovascular conditions, dementia, psychiatric disease (AML, myeloma), liver and rheumatic disease (AML), cardiovascular and pulmonary disease (myeloma). The difference in the probability of cancer-specific death, comparing patients with and without comorbidity, was largest among AML patients <70 years, whereas in myeloma the difference did not vary by age among the elderly. The probability of cancer-specific death was generally higher than other-cause death even in older age groups, irrespective of comorbidity. Comorbidities associated with organ failure or cognitive function are associated with poorer prognosis in several hematological malignancies, likely due to lower treatment tolerability. The results highlight the need for a better balance between treatment toxicity and efficacy in comorbid and elderly AML, CML and myeloma patients.

PKD2-Related Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: Prevalence, Clinical Presentation, Mutation Spectrum, and Prognosis.

PubMed

Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Renaudineau, Eric; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Charasse, Christophe; Michez, Eric; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Dantal, Jacques; Siohan, Pascale; Longuet, Hélène; Gatault, Philippe; Ecotière, Laure; Bridoux, Frank; Mandart, Lise; Hanrotel-Saliou, Catherine; Stanescu, Corina; Depraetre, Pascale; Gie, Sophie; Massad, Michiel; Kersalé, Aude; Séret, Guillaume; Augusto, Jean-François; Saliou, Philippe; Maestri, Sandrine; Chen, Jian-Min; Harris, Peter C; Férec, Claude; Le Meur, Yannick

2017-10-01

PKD2-related autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is widely acknowledged to be of milder severity than PKD1-related disease, but population-based studies depicting the exact burden of the disease are lacking. We aimed to revisit PKD2 prevalence, clinical presentation, mutation spectrum, and prognosis through the Genkyst cohort. Case series, January 2010 to March 2016. Genkyst study participants are individuals older than 18 years from 22 nephrology centers from western France with a diagnosis of ADPKD based on Pei criteria or at least 10 bilateral kidney cysts in the absence of a familial history. Publicly available whole-exome sequencing data from the ExAC database were used to provide an estimate of the genetic prevalence of the disease. Molecular analysis of PKD1 and PKD2 genes. Renal survival, age- and sex-adjusted estimated glomerular filtration rate. The Genkyst cohort included 293 patients with PKD2 mutations (203 pedigrees). PKD2 patients with a nephrology follow-up corresponded to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.54-0.72)/10,000 in Brittany, while PKD2 genetic prevalence was calculated at 1.64 (95% CI, 1.10-3.51)/10,000 inhabitants in the European population. Median age at diagnosis was 42 years. Flank pain was reported in 38.9%; macroscopic hematuria, in 31.1%; and cyst infections, in 15.3% of patients. At age 60 years, the cumulative probability of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was 9.8% (95% CI, 5.2%-14.4%), whereas the probability of hypertension was 75.2% (95% CI, 68.5%-81.9%). Although there was no sex influence on renal survival, men had lower kidney function than women. Nontruncating mutations (n=36) were associated with higher age-adjusted estimated glomerular filtration rates. Among the 18 patients with more severe outcomes (ESRD before age 60), 44% had associated conditions or nephropathies likely to account for the early progression to ESRD. Younger patients and patients presenting with milder forms of PKD2-related disease may not be diagnosed or referred to nephrology centers. Patients with PKD2-related ADPKD typically present with mild disease. In case of accelerated degradation of kidney function, a concomitant nephropathy should be ruled out. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Socio-demographic and health factors associated with the institutionalization of dependent people].

PubMed

Ayuso Gutiérrez, Mercedes; Pozo Rubio, Raúl Del; Escribano Sotos, Francisco

2010-01-01

The analysis of the effect that different variables have in the probability that dependent people are institutionalized is a topic scantily studied in Spain. The aim of the work is to analyze as certain socio-demographic and health factors can influence probability of dependent person living in a residence. A cross-section study has been conducted from a representative sample of the dependent population in Cuenca (Spain) in February, 2009. We have obtained information for people with level II and III of dependence. A binary logit regression model has been estimated to identify those factors related to the institutionalization of dependent people. People with ages between 65-74 years old are six times more likely to be institutionalized than younger people (< 65 years old); this probability increases sixteen times for those individuals with ages equal or higher than 95 years. The probability of institutionalization of people who live in an urban area is three times the probability of people who live in a rural area. People who need pharmacological, psychotherapy or rehabilitation treatments have between two and four times more probability of being institutionalized that those who do not need those. Age, marital status, place of residence, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal diseases and four times of medical treatment are the principal variables associated with the institutionalization of dependent people.

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

Demographic trends among older cannabis users in the United States, 2006–13

PubMed Central

Han, Benjamin H.; Sherman, Scott; Mauro, Pia M.; Martins, Silvia S.; Rotenberg, James; Palamar, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The ageing US population is providing an unprecedented population of older adults who use recreational drugs. We aimed to estimate the trends in the prevalence of past-year use of cannabis, describe the patterns and attitudes and determine correlates of cannabis use by adults age 50 years and older. Design Secondary analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health survey from 2006 to 2013, a cross-sectional survey given to a nationally representative probability sample of populations living in US households. Setting USA. Participants A total of 47 140 survey respondents aged ≥ 50 years. Measures Estimates and trends of past-year use of cannabis. Findings The prevalence of past-year cannabis use among adults aged ≥ 50 increased significantly from 2006/07 to 2012/13, with a 57.8% relative increase for adults aged 50–64 (linear trend P < 0.001) and a 250% relative increase for those aged ≥ 65 (linear trend P = 0.002). When combining data from 2006 to 2013, 6.9% of older cannabis users met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, and the majority of the sample reported perceiving no risk or slight risk associated with monthly cannabis use (85.3%) or weekly use (79%). Past-year users were more likely to be younger, male, non-Hispanic, not have multiple chronic conditions and use tobacco, alcohol or other drugs compared with non-past-year cannabis users. Conclusions The prevalence of cannabis use has increased significantly in recent years among US adults aged ≥ 50 years. PMID:27767235

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women.

PubMed

Cohen, Joel E; Kravdal, Øystein; Keilman, Nico

2011-07-19

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level.

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joel E.; Kravdal, Øystein; Keilman, Nico

2011-01-01

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level. PMID:21730138

Genetics Home Reference: frontotemporal dementia with parkinsonism-17

MedlinePlus

... more common than this estimate. FTDP-17 probably accounts for a small percentage of all cases of frontotemporal dementia. Related Information What information about a genetic condition can statistics ...

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Natal and breeding philopatry in a black brant, Branta bernicla nigricans, metapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Sedinger, James S.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

We estimated natal and breeding philopatry and dispersal probabilities for a metapopulation of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) based on observations of marked birds at six breeding colonies in Alaska, 1986–1994. Both adult females and males exhibited high (>0.90) probability of philopatry to breeding colonies. Probability of natal philopatry was significantly higher for females than males. Natal dispersal of males was recorded between every pair of colonies, whereas natal dispersal of females was observed between only half of the colony pairs. We suggest that female-biased philopatry was the result of timing of pair formation and characteristics of the mating system of brant, rather than factors related to inbreeding avoidance or optimal discrepancy. Probability of natal philopatry of females increased with age but declined with year of banding. Age-related increase in natal philopatry was positively related to higher breeding probability of older females. Declines in natal philopatry with year of banding corresponded negatively to a period of increasing population density; therefore, local population density may influence the probability of nonbreeding and gene flow among colonies.

Brookian stratigraphic plays in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPRA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houseknecht, David W.

2003-01-01

The Brookian megasequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) includes bottomset and clinoform seismic facies of the Torok Formation (mostly Albian age) and generally coeval, topset seismic facies of the uppermost Torok Formation and the Nanushuk Group. These strata are part of a composite total petroleum system involving hydrocarbons expelled from three stratigraphic intervals of source rocks, the Lower Cretaceous gamma-ray zone (GRZ), the Lower Jurassic Kingak Shale, and the Triassic Shublik Formation. The potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Brookian megasequence in NPRA was assessed by defining five plays (assessment units), one in the topset seismic facies and four in the bottomset-clinoform seismic facies. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 60 (95-percent probability) and 465 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 239 million barrels. The Brookian Topset Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 679 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 192 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform North Play, which extends across northern NPRA, is estimated to contain between 538 (95-percent probability) and 2,257 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 1,306 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform North Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,969 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 674 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play, which extends across central NPRA, is estimated to contain between 299 (95-percent probability) and 1,849 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 973 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform Central Play is estimated to contain between 1,806 (95-percent probability) and 10,076 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 5,405 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform South-Shallow Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 1,254 (5-percent probability) million barrels of technically recoverable oil, with a mean (expected value) of 508 million barrels. The Brookian Clinoform South-Shallow Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 5,809 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 2,405 billion cubic feet. The Brookian Clinoform South-Deep Play is estimated to contain between 0 (95-percent probability) and 8,796 (5-percent probability) billion cubic feet of technically recoverable, nonassociated natural gas, with a mean (expected value) of 3,788 billion cubic feet. No technically recoverable oil is assessed in the Brookian Clinoform South-Deep Play, as it lies at depths that are entirely in the gas window. Among the Brookian stratigraphic plays in NPRA, the Brookian Clinoform North Play and the Brookian Clinoform Central Play are most likely to be objectives of exploration activity in the near-term future because they are estimated to contain multiple oil accumulations larger than 128 million barrels technically recoverable oil, and because some of those accumulations may occur near existing infrastructure in the eastern parts of the plays. The other Brookian stratigraphic plays are not likely to be the focus of exploration activity because they are estimated to contain maximum accumulation sizes that are smaller, but they may be an objective of satellite exploration if infrastructure is extended into the play areas. The total volumes of natural gas estimated to occur in B

The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

PubMed

Latif, Ehsan

2014-06-01

The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan, Honduras.

PubMed

Storey, Rebecca

2007-01-01

Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Calculating summary statistics for population chemical biomonitoring in women of childbearing age with adjustment for age-specific natality.

PubMed

Axelrad, Daniel A; Cohen, Jonathan

2011-01-01

The effects of chemical exposures during pregnancy on children's health have been an increasing focus of environmental health research in recent years, leading to greater interest in biomonitoring of chemicals in women of childbearing age in the general population. Measurements of mercury in blood from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are frequently reported for "women of childbearing age," defined to be of ages 16-49 years. The intent is to represent prenatal chemical exposure, but blood mercury levels increase with age. Furthermore, women of different ages have different probabilities of giving birth. We evaluated options to address potential bias in biomonitoring summary statistics for women of childbearing age by accounting for age-specific probabilities of giving birth. We calculated median and 95th percentile levels of mercury, PCBs, and cotinine using these approaches: option 1: women aged 16-49 years without natality adjustment; option 2: women aged 16-39 years without natality adjustment; option 3: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age; option 4: women aged 16-49 years, adjusted for natality by age and race/ethnicity. Among the three chemicals examined, the choice of option has the greatest impact on estimated levels of serum PCBs, which are strongly associated with age. Serum cotinine levels among Black non-Hispanic women of childbearing age are understated when age-specific natality is not considered. For characterizing in utero exposures, adjustment using age-specific natality provides a substantial improvement in estimation of biomonitoring summary statistics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional Density Estimation with HMM Based Support Vector Machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Fasheng; Liu, Zhenqiu; Jia, Chunxin; Chen, Dechang

Conditional density estimation is very important in financial engineer, risk management, and other engineering computing problem. However, most regression models have a latent assumption that the probability density is a Gaussian distribution, which is not necessarily true in many real life applications. In this paper, we give a framework to estimate or predict the conditional density mixture dynamically. Through combining the Input-Output HMM with SVM regression together and building a SVM model in each state of the HMM, we can estimate a conditional density mixture instead of a single gaussian. With each SVM in each node, this model can be applied for not only regression but classifications as well. We applied this model to denoise the ECG data. The proposed method has the potential to apply to other time series such as stock market return predictions.

Cameriere's third molar maturity index in assessing age of majority.

PubMed

Galić, Ivan; Lauc, Tomislav; Brkić, Hrvoje; Vodanović, Marin; Galić, Elizabeta; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye; Brakus, Ivan; Badrov, Jozo; Cameriere, Roberto

2015-07-01

Estimation of chronological age of an individual is one of the main challenges in forensic science. Legally to be able to treat a person as a minor or an adult, it is necessary to determine whether their age of majority (if they are older or younger than 18, in most countries). Methods for estimating age are especially important when an individual in question lacks personal documents or other means of identification. As the dental age differs in various populations, the aim of this study was to evaluate applicability of third molar method for assessing age of majority in Croatia. Cameriere's third molar maturity index (I3M) value of 0.08, measured by the open apices of the teeth, was verified in sample of 1336 panoramic images aged between 14 and 23 years. Chronological age gradually decreased as I3M increased in both genders. Males showed statistically significant advanced maturation when I3M was between 0.0 and 0.3 value. The results indicate that the sensitivity of the test for 0.08 value was 84.3% (95%CI 80.6%, 87.5%) for females and 91.2% (95%CI 88.7%, 93.1) for males. Specificity was 95.4% (95%CI 92.5%, 97.5%) and 91.9% (95%CI 88.8%, 94.3%). The proportions of accurately classified males were 88.8% and that of females 91.5%. The estimated post-test probabilities, of individuals, in other word the probability that a Croatian individual with an I3M<0.08 is 18 years or older is 94.5% for females, and 96.5% for males. With high accuracy, the third molar maturity index should be used as a determinant of the age of majority in Croatia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of climate and land use changes on extreme floods in a large tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jothityangkoon, Chatchai; Hirunteeyakul, Chow; Boonrawd, Kowit; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2013-05-01

In the wake of the recent catastrophic floods in Thailand, there is considerable concern about the safety of large dams designed and built some 50 years ago. In this paper a distributed rainfall-runoff model appropriate for extreme flood conditions is used to generate revised estimates of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for the Upper Ping River catchment (area 26,386 km2) in northern Thailand, upstream of location of the large Bhumipol Dam. The model has two components: a continuous water balance model based on a configuration of parameters estimated from climate, soil and vegetation data and a distributed flood routing model based on non-linear storage-discharge relationships of the river network under extreme flood conditions. The model is implemented under several alternative scenarios regarding the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates and is also used to estimate the potential effects of both climate change and land use and land cover changes on the extreme floods. These new estimates are compared against estimates using other hydrological models, including the application of the original prediction methods under current conditions. Model simulations and sensitivity analyses indicate that a reasonable Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) at the dam site is 6311 m3/s, which is only slightly higher than the original design flood of 6000 m3/s. As part of an uncertainty assessment, the estimated PMF is sensitive to the design method, input PMP, land use changes and the floodplain inundation effect. The increase of PMP depth by 5% can cause a 7.5% increase in PMF. Deforestation by 10%, 20%, 30% can result in PMF increases of 3.1%, 6.2%, 9.2%, respectively. The modest increase of the estimated PMF (to just 6311 m3/s) in spite of these changes is due to the factoring of the hydraulic effects of trees and buildings on the floodplain as the flood situation changes from normal floods to extreme floods, when over-bank flows may be the dominant flooding process, leading to a substantial reduction in the PMF estimates.

Urinary incontinence, depression, and economic outcomes in a cohort of women between the ages of 54 and 65 years.

PubMed

Hung, Kristin J; Awtrey, Christopher S; Tsai, Alexander C

2014-04-01

To estimate the association between urinary incontinence (UI) and probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. The analytic sample consisted of 4,511 women enrolled in the population-based Health and Retirement Study cohort. The analysis baseline was 1996, the year that questions about UI were added to the survey instrument, and at which time study participants were 54-65 years of age. Women were followed-up with biennial interviews until 2010-2011. Outcomes of interest were onset of probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. Urinary incontinence was specified in different ways based on questions about experience and frequency of urine loss. We fit Cox proportional hazards regression models to the data, adjusting the estimates for baseline sociodemographic and health status variables previously found to confound the association between UI and the outcomes of interest. At baseline, 727 participants (survey-weighted prevalence, 16.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 15.4-18.0) reported any UI, of which 212 (survey-weighted prevalence, 29.2%; 95% CI 25.4-33.3) reported urine loss on more than 15 days in the past month; and 1,052 participants were categorized as having probable depression (survey-weighted prevalence, 21.6%; 95% CI 19.8-23.6). Urinary incontinence was associated with increased risks for probable depression (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI 1.27-1.62) and work disability (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45), but not workforce exit (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI 0.93-1.21). In a population-based cohort of women between ages 54 and 65 years, UI was associated with increased risks for probable depression and work disability. Improved diagnosis and management of UI may yield significant economic and psychosocial benefits.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-01-01

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, Bhogilal M.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Lalli, Vincent A.; Pai, Shantaram; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-10-01

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

Essential health care among Mexican indigenous people in a universal coverage context.

PubMed

Servan-Mori, Edson; Pelcastre-Villafuerte, Blanca; Heredia-Pi, Ileana; Montoya-Rodríguez, Arain

2014-01-01

To analyze the influence of indigenous condition on essential health care among Mexican children, older people and women in reproductive age. The influence of indigenous condition on the probability of receiving medical care due to acute respiratory infection (ARI) and acute diarrheal disease (ADD), vaccination coverage; and antenatal care (ANC) was analyzed using the 2012 National Health Survey and non-experimental matching methods. Indigenous condition does not influence per-se vaccination coverage (in < 1 year), probability of attention of ARI's and ADD's as well as, timely, frequent, and quality ANC. Being indigenous and older adult increases 9% the probability of receiving a fulfilled vaccination schedule. Unfavorable structural conditions in which Mexican indigenous live constitutes the persistent mechanisms of their health vulnerability. Public policy should consider this level of intervention, in a way that intensive and focalized health strategies contribute to improve their health condition and life.

The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretthorst, G. Larry

2013-08-01

The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

Probabilistic safety analysis of earth retaining structures during earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grivas, D. A.; Souflis, C.

1982-07-01

A procedure is presented for determining the probability of failure of Earth retaining structures under static or seismic conditions. Four possible modes of failure (overturning, base sliding, bearing capacity, and overall sliding) are examined and their combined effect is evaluated with the aid of combinatorial analysis. The probability of failure is shown to be a more adequate measure of safety than the customary factor of safety. As Earth retaining structures may fail in four distinct modes, a system analysis can provide a single estimate for the possibility of failure. A Bayesian formulation of the safety retaining walls is found to provide an improved measure for the predicted probability of failure under seismic loading. The presented Bayesian analysis can account for the damage incurred to a retaining wall during an earthquake to provide an improved estimate for its probability of failure during future seismic events.

Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

2018-04-01

Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Estimating the probability of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion and vice versa.

PubMed Central

Hammerslough, C R

1992-01-01

An integrated approach to estimate the total number of pregnancies that begin in a population during one calendar year and the probability of spontaneous abortion is described. This includes an indirect estimate of the number of pregnancies that result in spontaneous abortions. The method simultaneously takes into account the proportion of induced abortions that are censored by spontaneous abortions and vice versa in order to estimate the true annual number of spontaneous and induced abortions for a population. It also estimates the proportion of pregnancies that women intended to allow to continue to a live birth. The proposed indirect approach derives adjustment factors to make indirect estimates by combining vital statistics information on gestational age at induced abortion (from the 12 States that report to the National Center for Health Statistics) with a life table of spontaneous abortion probabilities. The adjustment factors are applied to data on induced abortions from the Alan Guttmacher Institute Abortion Provider Survey and data on births from U.S. vital statistics. For the United States in 1980 the probability of a spontaneous abortion is 19 percent, given the presence of induced abortion. Once the effects of spontaneous abortion are discounted, women in 1980 intended to allow 73 percent of their pregnancies to proceed to a live birth. One medical benefit to a population practicing induced abortion is that induced abortions avert some spontaneous abortions, leading to a lower mean gestational duration at the time of spontaneous abortion. PMID:1594736

Risk, Reward, and Decision-Making in a Rodent Model of Cognitive Aging

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Ryan J.; Mitchell, Marci R.; Simon, Nicholas W.; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L.

2011-01-01

Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5–7 months) and aged (23–25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost–benefit decision-making. PMID:22319463

Risk, reward, and decision-making in a rodent model of cognitive aging.

PubMed

Gilbert, Ryan J; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W; Bañuelos, Cristina; Setlow, Barry; Bizon, Jennifer L

2011-01-01

Impaired decision-making in aging can directly impact factors (financial security, health care) that are critical to maintaining quality of life and independence at advanced ages. Naturalistic rodent models mimic human aging in other cognitive domains, and afford the opportunity to parse the effects of age on discrete aspects of decision-making in a manner relatively uncontaminated by experiential factors. Young adult (5-7 months) and aged (23-25 months) male F344 rats were trained on a probability discounting task in which they made discrete-trial choices between a small certain reward (one food pellet) and a large but uncertain reward (two food pellets with varying probabilities of delivery ranging from 100 to 0%). Young rats chose the large reward when it was associated with a high probability of delivery and shifted to the small but certain reward as probability of the large reward decreased. As a group, aged rats performed comparably to young, but there was significantly greater variance among aged rats. One subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the small certain reward. This preference was maintained under conditions in which large reward delivery was also certain, suggesting decreased sensitivity to reward magnitude. In contrast, another subgroup of aged rats showed strong preference for the large reward at low probabilities of delivery. Interestingly, this subgroup also showed elevated preference for probabilistic rewards when reward magnitudes were equalized. Previous findings using this same aged study population described strongly attenuated discounting of delayed rewards with age, together suggesting that a subgroup of aged rats may have deficits associated with accounting for reward costs (i.e., delay or probability). These deficits in cost-accounting were dissociable from the age-related differences in sensitivity to reward magnitude, suggesting that aging influences multiple, distinct mechanisms that can impact cost-benefit decision-making.

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder.

PubMed

Debeffe, Lucie; Poissant, Jocelyn; McLoughlin, Philip D

2017-08-01

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco-evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among-individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long-term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High-quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle-aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime-aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that environmental or social conditions were not, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when studying costs of reproduction.

Educational achievement among long-term survivors of congenital heart defects: a Danish population-based follow-up study.

PubMed

Olsen, Morten; Hjortdal, Vibeke E; Mortensen, Laust H; Christensen, Thomas D; Sørensen, Henrik T; Pedersen, Lars

2011-04-01

Congenital heart defect patients may experience neurodevelopmental impairment. We investigated their educational attainments from basic schooling to higher education. Using administrative databases, we identified all Danish patients with a cardiac defect diagnosis born from 1 January, 1977 to 1 January, 1991 and alive at age 13 years. As a comparison cohort, we randomly sampled 10 persons per patient. We obtained information on educational attainment from Denmark's Database for Labour Market Research. The study population was followed until achievement of educational levels, death, emigration, or 1 January, 2006. We estimated the hazard ratio of attaining given educational levels, conditional on completing preceding levels, using discrete-time Cox regression and adjusting for socio-economic factors. Analyses were repeated for a sub-cohort of patients and controls born at term and without extracardiac defects or chromosomal anomalies. We identified 2986 patients. Their probability of completing compulsory basic schooling was approximately 10% lower than that of control individuals (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.79, ranged from 0.75 to 0.82 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.82). Their subsequent probability of completing secondary school was lower than that of the controls, both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.80; 95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.86). The probability of attaining a higher degree, conditional on completion of youth education, was affected both for all patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.01) and for the sub-cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.07). The probability of educational attainment was reduced among long-term congenital heart defect survivors.

[Child malnutrition, infrastructure and income in Mexico].

PubMed

Ayala-Gaytán, Edgardo A; Díaz Durán-Hernández, Andrea

2015-01-01

Explain the variation in child malnutrition (CM), understood as low height for age (0 to 5 years old) for the period 1999-2006. State estimations of child malnutrition and several indicators of subjacent probable causes of CM were employed, such as poverty indices, state product per capita, women scholar attainment and access to health and the sewage system. Panel data regression analysis with fixed and random effects were used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the lack to access to health and sewage systems and poverty worsen CM, whereas women education helps to diminish CM. The study shows that infrastructure variables explain a significant part of the recent variation in DI across Mexican states, and that economic growth is not a sufficient condition to diminish DI.

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Rajan; Lee, Larry D.

1990-01-01

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis.

PubMed

Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

2016-01-01

Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Sixty subjects aged 20-85 years were included in the study. For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections-cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root-were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation ( r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level.

Physiological condition of autumn-banded mallards and its relationship to hunting vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hepp, G.R.; Blohm, R.J.; Reynolds, R.E.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

1986-01-01

An important topic of waterfowl ecology concerns the relationship between the physiological condition of ducks during the nonbreeding season and fitness, i.e., survival and future reproductive success. We investigated this subject using direct band recovery records of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) banded in autumn (1 Oct-15 Dec) 1981-83 in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) [USA]. A condition index, weight (g)/wing length (mm), was calculated for each duck, and we tested whether condition of mallards at time of banding was related to their probability of recovery during the hunting season. In 3 years, 5,610 mallards were banded and there were 234 direct recoveries. Three binary regression model was used to test the relationship between recovery probability and condition. Likelihood-ratio tests were conducted to determine the most suitable model. For mallards banded in autumn there was a negative relationship between physical condition and the probability of recovery. Mallards in poor condition at the time of banding had a greater probability of being recovered during the hunting season. In general, this was true for all ages and sex classes; however, the strongest relationship occurred for adult males.

Impact of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine on bacterial meningitis in the Dominican Republic.

PubMed

Lee, Ellen H; Corcino, Miriam; Moore, Arelis; Garib, Zacarias; Peña, Chabela; Sánchez, Jacqueline; Fernández, Josefina; Feris-Iglesias, Jesús M; Flannery, Brendan

2008-09-01

Widespread use of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccines has dramatically reduced the burden of Hib disease throughout the Americas. Few studies have evaluated the impact of Hib vaccination on non-culture-confirmed disease. This study analyzed trends in probable bacterial meningitis before and after the introduction of Hib vaccine in the Dominican Republic and estimated vaccine effectiveness against Hib meningitis. Meningitis cases among children < 5 years of age were identified from admission records of the main pediatric hospital in Santo Domingo during 1998-2004. Laboratory criteria were used to classify meningitis cases with probable bacterial etiology; confirmed cases had positive bacterial culture or antigen detection in cerebrospinal fluid. Cumulative incidence rates of confirmed and probable bacterial meningitis were calculated for children living in the National District. Confirmed cases of Hib meningitis were enrolled in a case-control study with age- and neighborhood-matched control children to calculate vaccine effectiveness. Before vaccine introduction, annual rates of meningitis with probable bacterial etiology were 49 cases per 100 000 children < 5 years old; Hib accounted for 60% of confirmed bacterial cases. During 2002-2004, after vaccine introduction, annual rates of probable bacterial meningitis were 65% lower at 16 cases per 100 000, and Hib accounted for 26% of confirmed cases. Rates of Hib meningitis and probable bacterial meningitis with no determined etiology declined by 13 and 17 cases per 100 000, respectively. Introduction of Hib vaccine substantially reduced the incidence of confirmed and probable bacterial meningitis in the Dominican Republic. The estimated impact of Hib vaccination was twice as great when non-culture-confirmed disease was included.

Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird

PubMed Central

Ryder, Thomas B.; Sillett, T. Scott

2016-01-01

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability—male survival and recruitment—vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest. PMID:26791615

Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird.

PubMed

Ryder, Thomas B; Sillett, T Scott

2016-01-27

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability-male survival and recruitment-vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest. © 2016 The Author(s).

Compensating for geographic variation in detection probability with water depth improves abundance estimates of coastal marine megafauna.

PubMed

Hagihara, Rie; Jones, Rhondda E; Sobtzick, Susan; Cleguer, Christophe; Garrigue, Claire; Marsh, Helene

2018-01-01

The probability of an aquatic animal being available for detection is typically <1. Accounting for covariates that reduce the probability of detection is important for obtaining robust estimates of the population abundance and determining its status and trends. The dugong (Dugong dugon) is a bottom-feeding marine mammal and a seagrass community specialist. We hypothesized that the probability of a dugong being available for detection is dependent on water depth and that dugongs spend more time underwater in deep-water seagrass habitats than in shallow-water seagrass habitats. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying the depth use of 28 wild dugongs fitted with GPS satellite transmitters and time-depth recorders (TDRs) at three sites with distinct seagrass depth distributions: 1) open waters supporting extensive seagrass meadows to 40 m deep (Torres Strait, 6 dugongs, 2015); 2) a protected bay (average water depth 6.8 m) with extensive shallow seagrass beds (Moreton Bay, 13 dugongs, 2011 and 2012); and 3) a mixture of lagoon, coral and seagrass habitats to 60 m deep (New Caledonia, 9 dugongs, 2013). The fitted instruments were used to measure the times the dugongs spent in the experimentally determined detection zones under various environmental conditions. The estimated probability of detection was applied to aerial survey data previously collected at each location. In general, dugongs were least available for detection in Torres Strait, and the population estimates increased 6-7 fold using depth-specific availability correction factors compared with earlier estimates that assumed homogeneous detection probability across water depth and location. Detection probabilities were higher in Moreton Bay and New Caledonia than Torres Strait because the water transparency in these two locations was much greater than in Torres Strait and the effect of correcting for depth-specific detection probability much less. The methodology has application to visual survey of coastal megafauna including surveys using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

Approximate Quantification in Young, Healthy Older Adults', and Alzheimer Patients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gandini, Delphine; Lemaire, Patrick; Michel, Bernard Francois

2009-01-01

Forty young adults, 40 healthy older adults, and 39 probable AD patients were asked to estimate small (e.g., 25) and large (e.g., 60) collections of dots in a choice condition and in two no-choice conditions. Participants could choose between benchmark and anchoring strategies on each collection of dots in the choice condition and were required to…

Measurement Equivalence of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) Applied Cognition – General Concerns, Short Forms in Ethnically Diverse Groups

PubMed Central

Fieo, Robert; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Kleinman, Marjorie; Eimicke, Joseph P.; Crane, Paul K.; Cella, David; Teresi, Jeanne A.

2017-01-01

Aims The goals of these analyses were to examine the psychometric properties and measurement equivalence of a self-reported cognition measure, the Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) Applied Cognition – General Concerns short form. These items are also found in the PROMIS Cognitive Function (version 2) item bank. This scale consists of eight items related to subjective cognitive concerns. Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses of gender, education, race, age, and (Spanish) language were performed using an ethnically diverse sample (n = 5,477) of individuals with cancer. This is the first analysis examining DIF in this item set across ethnic and racial groups. Methods DIF hypotheses were derived by asking content experts to indicate whether they posited DIF for each item and to specify the direction. The principal DIF analytic model was item response theory (IRT) using the graded response model for polytomous data, with accompanying Wald tests and measures of magnitude. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using ordinal logistic regression (OLR) with a latent conditioning variable. IRT-based reliability, precision and information indices were estimated. Results DIF was identified consistently only for the item, brain not working as well as usual. After correction for multiple comparisons, this item showed significant DIF for both the primary and sensitivity analyses. Black respondents and Hispanics in comparison to White non-Hispanic respondents evidenced a lower conditional probability of endorsing the item, brain not working as well as usual. The same pattern was observed for the education grouping variable: as compared to those with a graduate degree, conditioning on overall level of subjective cognitive concerns, those with less than high school education also had a lower probability of endorsing this item. DIF was also observed for age for two items after correction for multiple comparisons for both the IRT and OLR-based models: “I have had to work really hard to pay attention or I would make a mistake” and “I have had trouble shifting back and forth between different activities that require thinking”. For both items, conditional on cognitive complaints, older respondents had a higher likelihood than younger respondents of endorsing the item in the cognitive complaints direction. The magnitude and impact of DIF was minimal. The scale showed high precision along much of the subjective cognitive concerns continuum; the overall IRT-based reliability estimate for the total sample was 0.88 and the estimates for subgroups ranged from 0.87 to 0.92. Conclusion Little DIF of high magnitude or impact was observed in the PROMIS Applied Cognition – General Concerns short form item set. One item, “It has seemed like my brain was not working as well as usual” might be singled out for further study. However, in general the short form item set was highly reliable, informative, and invariant across differing race/ethnic, educational, age, gender, and language groups. PMID:28523238

Measurement Equivalence of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) Applied Cognition - General Concerns, Short Forms in Ethnically Diverse Groups.

PubMed

Fieo, Robert; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Kleinman, Marjorie; Eimicke, Joseph P; Crane, Paul K; Cella, David; Teresi, Jeanne A

2016-01-01

The goals of these analyses were to examine the psychometric properties and measurement equivalence of a self-reported cognition measure, the Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System ® (PROMIS ® ) Applied Cognition - General Concerns short form. These items are also found in the PROMIS Cognitive Function (version 2) item bank. This scale consists of eight items related to subjective cognitive concerns. Differential item functioning (DIF) analyses of gender, education, race, age, and (Spanish) language were performed using an ethnically diverse sample ( n = 5,477) of individuals with cancer. This is the first analysis examining DIF in this item set across ethnic and racial groups. DIF hypotheses were derived by asking content experts to indicate whether they posited DIF for each item and to specify the direction. The principal DIF analytic model was item response theory (IRT) using the graded response model for polytomous data, with accompanying Wald tests and measures of magnitude. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using ordinal logistic regression (OLR) with a latent conditioning variable. IRT-based reliability, precision and information indices were estimated. DIF was identified consistently only for the item, brain not working as well as usual. After correction for multiple comparisons, this item showed significant DIF for both the primary and sensitivity analyses. Black respondents and Hispanics in comparison to White non-Hispanic respondents evidenced a lower conditional probability of endorsing the item, brain not working as well as usual. The same pattern was observed for the education grouping variable: as compared to those with a graduate degree, conditioning on overall level of subjective cognitive concerns, those with less than high school education also had a lower probability of endorsing this item. DIF was also observed for age for two items after correction for multiple comparisons for both the IRT and OLR-based models: "I have had to work really hard to pay attention or I would make a mistake" and "I have had trouble shifting back and forth between different activities that require thinking". For both items, conditional on cognitive complaints, older respondents had a higher likelihood than younger respondents of endorsing the item in the cognitive complaints direction. The magnitude and impact of DIF was minimal. The scale showed high precision along much of the subjective cognitive concerns continuum; the overall IRT-based reliability estimate for the total sample was 0.88 and the estimates for subgroups ranged from 0.87 to 0.92. Little DIF of high magnitude or impact was observed in the PROMIS Applied Cognition - General Concerns short form item set. One item, "It has seemed like my brain was not working as well as usual" might be singled out for further study. However, in general the short form item set was highly reliable, informative, and invariant across differing race/ethnic, educational, age, gender, and language groups.

Cross-National Differences in Disability Among Elders: Transitions in Disability in Mexico and the United States

PubMed Central

Wong, Rebeca; Michaels-Obregon, Alejandra; Palloni, Alberto

2015-01-01

Objectives. Little is known about how exposure to a combination of infectious and chronic conditions throughout the lifecourse could impact disability in old age. This paper compares 2 cohorts of adults who have aged under very different country contexts by contrasting disability transitions among elders in Mexico with elders in the United States. Methods. Data comes from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) and the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Estimated probabilities of 2-year transitions among disability states and mortality are presented for adults aged 50 and older. Results. The levels of disability prevalence and 2 year transitions are consistent with a higher rate of disability for the United States compared to Mexico. In 2-year transitions, the U.S. sample was more likely to transition to a disabled state or increase the number of disabilities than the Mexican counterparts, while Mexicans are more likely to move out of disability or reduce the number of disabilities reported. Discussion. The findings suggest that the current rate of disability in old age is lower for a less developed country compared with a developed society. We discuss implications, possible explanations, and likely future scenarios. PMID:25633135

Children on the autism spectrum update their behaviour in response to a volatile environment.

PubMed

Manning, Catherine; Kilner, James; Neil, Louise; Karaminis, Themelis; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2017-09-01

Typical adults can track reward probabilities across trials to estimate the volatility of the environment and use this information to modify their learning rate (Behrens et al., 2007). In a stable environment, it is advantageous to take account of outcomes over many trials, whereas in a volatile environment, recent experience should be more strongly weighted than distant experience. Recent predictive coding accounts of autism propose that autistic individuals will demonstrate atypical updating of their behaviour in response to the statistics of the reward environment. To rigorously test this hypothesis, we administered a developmentally appropriate version of Behrens et al.'s (2007) task to 34 cognitively able children on the autism spectrum aged between 6 and 14 years, 32 age- and ability-matched typically developing children and 19 typical adults. Participants were required to choose between a green and a blue pirate chest, each associated with a randomly determined reward value between 0 and 100 points, with a combined total of 100 points. On each trial, the reward was given for one stimulus only. In the stable condition, the ratio of the blue or green response being rewarded was fixed at 75:25. In the volatile condition, the ratio alternated between 80:20 and 20:80 every 20 trials. We estimated the learning rate for each participant by fitting a delta rule model and compared this rate across conditions and groups. All groups increased their learning rate in the volatile condition compared to the stable condition. Unexpectedly, there was no effect of group and no interaction between group and condition. Thus, autistic children used information about the statistics of the reward environment to guide their decisions to a similar extent as typically developing children and adults. These results help constrain predictive coding accounts of autism by demonstrating that autism is not characterized by uniform differences in the weighting of prediction error. © 2016 The Authors. Developmental Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

PubMed

Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

2018-03-03

The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

Vaccinating Italian infants with a new multicomponent vaccine (Bexsero®) against meningococcal B disease: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Gasparini, Roberto; Landa, Paolo; Amicizia, Daniela; Icardi, Giancarlo; Ricciardi, Walter; de Waure, Chiara; Tanfani, Elena; Bonanni, Paolo; Lucioni, Carlo; Testi, Angela; Panatto, Donatella

2016-08-02

The European Medicines Agency has approved a multicomponent serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (Bexsero®) for use in individuals of 2 months of age and older. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) from the societal and Italian National Health Service perspectives was performed in order to evaluate the impact of vaccinating Italian infants less than 1 y of age with Bexsero®, as opposed to non-vaccination. The analysis was carried out by means of Excel Version 2011 and the TreeAge Pro® software Version 2012. Two basal scenarios that differed in terms of disease incidence (official and estimated data to correct for underreporting) were considered. In the basal scenarios, we considered a primary vaccination cycle with 4 doses (at 2, 4, 6 and 12 months of age) and 1 booster dose at the age of 11 y, the societal perspective and no cost for death. Sensitivity analyses were carried out in which crucial variables were changed over probable ranges. In Italy, on the basis of official data on disease incidence, vaccination with Bexsero® could prevent 82.97 cases and 5.61 deaths in each birth cohort, while these figures proved to be three times higher on considering the estimated incidence. The results of the CEA showed that the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per QALY was €109,762 in the basal scenario if official data on disease incidence are considered and €26,599 if estimated data are considered. The tornado diagram indicated that the most influential factor on ICER was the incidence of disease. The probability of sequelae, the cost of the vaccine and vaccine effectiveness also had an impact. Our results suggest that vaccinating infants in Italy with Bexsero® has the ability to significantly reduce meningococcal disease and, if the probable underestimation of disease incidence is considered, routine vaccination is advisable.

Vaccinating Italian infants with a new multicomponent vaccine (Bexsero®) against meningococcal B disease: A cost-effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Gasparini, Roberto; Landa, Paolo; Amicizia, Daniela; Icardi, Giancarlo; Ricciardi, Walter; de Waure, Chiara; Tanfani, Elena; Bonanni, Paolo; Lucioni, Carlo; Testi, Angela; Panatto, Donatella

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The European Medicines Agency has approved a multicomponent serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (Bexsero®) for use in individuals of 2 months of age and older. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) from the societal and Italian National Health Service perspectives was performed in order to evaluate the impact of vaccinating Italian infants less than 1 y of age with Bexsero®, as opposed to non-vaccination. The analysis was carried out by means of Excel Version 2011 and the TreeAge Pro® software Version 2012. Two basal scenarios that differed in terms of disease incidence (official and estimated data to correct for underreporting) were considered. In the basal scenarios, we considered a primary vaccination cycle with 4 doses (at 2, 4, 6 and 12 months of age) and 1 booster dose at the age of 11 y, the societal perspective and no cost for death. Sensitivity analyses were carried out in which crucial variables were changed over probable ranges. In Italy, on the basis of official data on disease incidence, vaccination with Bexsero® could prevent 82.97 cases and 5.61 deaths in each birth cohort, while these figures proved to be three times higher on considering the estimated incidence. The results of the CEA showed that the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per QALY was €109,762 in the basal scenario if official data on disease incidence are considered and €26,599 if estimated data are considered. The tornado diagram indicated that the most influential factor on ICER was the incidence of disease. The probability of sequelae, the cost of the vaccine and vaccine effectiveness also had an impact. Our results suggest that vaccinating infants in Italy with Bexsero® has the ability to significantly reduce meningococcal disease and, if the probable underestimation of disease incidence is considered, routine vaccination is advisable. PMID:27163398

GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

2010-12-01

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

Juvenile survival in a tropical population of roseate terns: Interannual variation and effect of tick parasitism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monticelli, David; Ramos, Jaime A.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Spendelow, Jeffrey A.

2008-01-01

Many demographic studies on long-lived seabirds have focused on the estimation of adult survival, but much less is known about survival during the early years of life, especially in tropical species. We report analyses of a capture–recapture dataset of 685 roseate terns ringed as fledglings and adults between 1998 and 2005 on Aride Island, Seychelles, and recaptured/resighted at the same colony site over a 5 yr (2002 to 2006) period. A multistate model was used to estimate survival for different age classes, including juvenile (first-year) birds returning as non-breeding prospectors. The effect of infestation by parasites (ticks) on survival was also examined. Overall, the estimated return of first-year individuals to the natal colony was very variable, ranging from 2 to 22%. Conditioned on survival, the probability of returning from Age 2 yr onwards increased to 70%. Survival rates were best modeled as time-specific, with estimates varying from 0.02 to 1.00 (mean 0.69) in first-year birds with a marked negative effect of tick infestation. In older birds (minimum age of 2 yr), the annual estimates fell between 0.69 and 0.86 (mean 0.77). Using a components of variance approach for estimation of year-to-year variation, we found high temporal variability for first-year individuals (coefficient of variation [CV] = 65%) compared to much less variation in the survival rate of older birds (CV = 9%). These findings agree with the life-history prediction that demographic rates of juveniles are usually lower and more variable than those of older individuals. Our results are also consistent with the predicted negative effect of tick parasitism on juvenile survival. Compared with data from other roseate tern populations, survival over the first 2 yr (Age 0 to 2 yr) was 18 to 40% higher in this study, suggesting that a high ‘young’ survival rate may be an important demographic trait in this tropical population to compensate for the low annual reproductive success. Our data show that estimating survival of young individuals may be crucial to elucidating the demographic tactics of seabirds.

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Quantitative evaluation of Alzheimer's disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchesne, S.; Frisoni, G. B.

2009-02-01

We propose a single, quantitative metric called the disease evaluation factor (DEF) and assess its efficiency at estimating disease burden in normal, control subjects (CTRL) and probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The study group consisted in 75 patients with a diagnosis of probable AD and 75 age-matched normal CTRL without neurological or neuropsychological deficit. We calculated a reference eigenspace of MRI appearance from reference data, in which our CTRL and probable AD subjects were projected. We then calculated the multi-dimensional hyperplane separating the CTRL and probable AD groups. The DEF was estimated via a multidimensional weighted distance of eigencoordinates for a given subject and the CTRL group mean, along salient principal components forming the separating hyperplane. We used quantile plots, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and χ2 tests to compare the DEF values and test that their distribution was normal. We used a linear discriminant test to separate CTRL from probable AD based on the DEF factor, and reached an accuracy of 87%. A quantitative biomarker in AD would act as an important surrogate marker of disease status and progression.

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Long S.; Kedem, Benjamin

1990-01-01

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Estimating the probability for major gene Alzheimer disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrer, L.A.; Cupples, L.A.

1994-02-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a neuropsychiatric illness caused by multiple etiologies. Prediction of whether AD is genetically based in a given family is problematic because of censoring bias among unaffected relatives as a consequence of the late onset of the disorder, diagnostic uncertainties, heterogeneity, and limited information in a single family. The authors have developed a method based on Bayesian probability to compute values for a continuous variable that ranks AD families as having a major gene form of AD (MGAD). In addition, they have compared the Bayesian method with a maximum-likelihood approach. These methods incorporate sex- and age-adjusted riskmore » estimates and allow for phenocopies and familial clustering of age on onset. Agreement is high between the two approaches for ranking families as MGAD (Spearman rank [r] = .92). When either method is used, the numerical outcomes are sensitive to assumptions of the gene frequency and cumulative incidence of the disease in the population. Consequently, risk estimates should be used cautiously for counseling purposes; however, there are numerous valid applications of these procedures in genetic and epidemiological studies. 41 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species

PubMed Central

Belant, Jerrold L.; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M.; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B.; Beyer, Dean E.

2016-01-01

Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170–551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species. PMID:27786283

Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.

PubMed

Belant, Jerrold L; Bled, Florent; Wilton, Clay M; Fyumagwa, Robert; Mwampeta, Stanslaus B; Beyer, Dean E

2016-10-27

Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

A new method to determine wound age in early vital skin injuries: a probability scoring system using expression levels of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage.

PubMed

van de Goot, Franklin R W; Korkmaz, H Ibrahim; Fronczek, Judith; Witte, Birgit I; Visser, Rob; Ulrich, Magda M W; Begieneman, Mark P V; Rozendaal, Lawrence; Krijnen, Paul A J; Niessen, Hans W M

2014-11-01

In forensic autopsies it is important to determine the age of early vital skin wounds as accurate as possible. In addition to inflammation, coagulation is also induced in vital wounds. Analysis of blood coagulation markers in wound hemorrhage could therefore be an important additional discriminating factor in wound age determination. The aim of this study was to develop a wound age probability scoring system, based on the immunohistochemical expression levels of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage. Tissue samples of (A) non injured control skin (n=383), and samples of mechanically induced skin injuries of known wound age, (B) injuries inflicted shortly before death (up to a few minutes old) (n=382), and (C) injuries inflicted 15-30 min before death (n=42) were obtained at autopsy in order to validate wound age estimation. Tissue slides were stained for Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII and were subsequently scored for staining intensity (IHC score) in wound hemorrhage (1=minor, 2=moderate, 3=strong positive). Finally, probability scores of these markers were calculated. In at most 14% of the non-injured control samples, hemorrhage was found, with mean±standard deviation IHC scores of 0.1±0.4, 0.2±0.4 and 0.2±0.5 for Fibronectin, CD62p, and Factor VIII, respectively. Expression of these markers significantly increased to mean IHC scores 1.4±0.8 (Fibronectin), 1.2±0.6 (CD62p), and 1.6±0.8 (Factor VIII) in wounds inflicted shortly before death (few minutes old) and to 2.6±0.5 (Fibronectin), 2.5±0.6 (CD62p), and 2.8±0.4 (Factor VIII) in 15-30 min old wounds. The probabilities that a wound was non vital in case of an IH score 0 were 87%, 88% and 90% for Fibronectin, CD62p, and Factor VIII, respectively. In case of an IHC score 1 or 2, the probabilities that a wound was a few minutes old were 82/90%, 82/83% and 72/93%. Finally, in case of an IHC score 3, the probabilities that a wound was 15-30 min old were 65%, 76% and 55%. Based on the expression of Fibronectin, CD62p and Factor VIII in wound hemorrhage, we developed a probability scoring system that can be used in forensic autopsies to improve wound age estimation in early skin injuries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical quality of base flow in 18 selected streams in the upper Susquehanna River basin, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hetcher, Kari K.; Miller, Todd S.; Komor, Steven C.

2004-01-01

Ground water from four production wells in the villages of Afton, Sidney, Unadilla, and Otego was analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to indicate the approximate age of the water in these wells and the potential for induced infiltration of river water. The water at two of these wells is probably between 26 and 50 years old; the ages of water at the other two wells could not be reliably estimated because of CFC contamination from a nonatmospheric source. The two wells for which CFC analysis gave reliable results (Afton and Otego) probably do not induce infiltration of river water into the aquifer.

Breast cancer patterns and lifetime risk of developing breast cancer among Puerto Rican females.

PubMed

Nazario, C M; Figueroa-Vallés, N; Rosario, R V

2000-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the epidemiologic patterns of breast cancer and to estimate the lifetime risk probability of developing breast cancer among Hispanic females using cancer data from Puerto Rico. The age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rate (per 100,000) in Puerto Rico increased from 15.3 in 1960-1964 to 43.3 in 1985-1989. The age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate (per 100,000) increased from 5.7 to 10.6 comparing the same two time periods (1960-1964 vs 1985-1989). Nevertheless, in 1985-1989 breast cancer incidence rate was higher in US White females (110.8 per 100,000) compared to Puerto Rican females (51.4 per 100,000; age-adjusted to the 1970 US standard population). The breast cancer mortality rate was also higher in US White females (27.4 per 100,000) than in Puerto Rican females (15.1 per 100,000; age-adjusted to the 1970 US standard population) during 1985-1989. A multiple decrement life table was constructed applying age-specific incidence and mortality rates from cross-sectional data sets (1980-1984 and 1985-1989 data for Puerto Rican females and 1987-1989 SEER data sets for US White and Black females) to a hypothetical cohort of 10,000,000 women. The probability of developing invasive breast cancer was computed for the three groups using the long version of DEVCAN: Probability of DEVeloping CANcer software, version 3.3. The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was 5.4% for Puerto Rican females, compared to 8.8% for US Black females and 13.0% for US White females. Lifetime risk for Puerto Rican females increased from 4.5% in 1980-1984 to 5.4% in 1985-1989. Lifetime risk of breast cancer appears to be increasing in Puerto Rico, but remains lower than the probability for US White females. Therefore, the application of lifetime probability of developing invasive breast cancer estimated for the US female population will overestimate the risk for the Puerto Rican female population.

SA45. Amotivation in Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder, and Major Depressive Disorder: A Preliminary Comparison Study

PubMed Central

Zou, Ying-min; Ni, Ke; Wang, Yang-yu; Yu, En-qing; Lui, Simon S. Y.; Cheung, Eric F. C.; Chan, Raymond C. K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Deficits in reward processing, such as approaching motivation, reward learning and effort-based decision-making, have been observed in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BD), and major depressive disorder (MDD). However, little is known about the nature of reward-processing deficits in these 3 diagnostic groups. The present study aimed to compare and contrast amotivation in these 3 diagnostic groups using an effort-based decision-making task. Methods: Sixty patients (19 SCZ patients, 18 BD patients and 23 MDD patients) and 27 healthy controls (HC) were recruited for the present study. The Effort Expenditure for Reward Task (EEfRT) was administered to evaluate their effort allocation pattern. This task required participants to choose easy or hard tasks in response to different levels of reward magnitude and reward probability. Results: Results showed that SCZ, BD, and MDD patients chose fewer hard tasks compared to HC. As reward magnitude increased, MDD patients made the least effort to gain reward compared to the other groups. When reward probability was intermediate, MDD patients chose fewer hard tasks than SCZ patients, whereas BD patients and HC chose more hard tasks than MDD and SCZ patients. When the reward probability was high, all 3 groups of patients tried fewer hard tasks than HC. Moreover, SCZ and MDD patients were less likely to choose hard tasks than BD patients and HC in the intermediate estimated value conditions. However, in the highest estimated value condition, there was no group difference in hard task choices between these 3 clinical groups, and they were all less motivated than HC. Conclusion: SCZ, BD, and MDD patients shared common deficits in gaining reward if the reward probability and estimated value were high. SCZ and MDD patients showed less motivation than BD patients in gaining reward when the reward probability and estimated value was intermediate.

Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

2016-06-17

Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for many species, our improved sampling design and analysis could provide significant improvements in density and abundance estimation.

Estimation of "needs" and "probable uptake" for HIV/AIDS preventive vaccines based on possible policies and likely acceptance (a WHO/UNAIDS/IAVI study).

PubMed

Esparza, José; Chang, Marie-Louise; Widdus, Roy; Madrid, Yvette; Walker, Neff; Ghys, Peter D

2003-05-16

Once an effective HIV vaccine is discovered, a major challenge will be to ensure its world wide access. A preventive vaccine with low or moderate efficacy (30-50%) could be a valuable prevention tool, especially if targeted to populations at higher risk of HIV infection. High efficacy vaccines (80-90%) could be used in larger segments of the population. Estimated "needs" for future HIV vaccines were based on anticipated policies regarding target populations. Estimated "needs" were adjusted for "accessibility" and "acceptability" in the target populations, to arrive at an estimate of "probable uptake", i.e. courses of vaccine likely to be delivered. With a high efficacy vaccine, global needs are in the order of 690 million full immunization courses, targeting 22 and 69%, respectively, of the 15-49 years old, world wide and in sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. With a low/moderate efficacy vaccine targeted to populations at higher risk of HIV infection, the global needs were estimated to be 260 million full immunization courses, targeting 8 and 41%, respectively, of the world and sub-Saharan African population aged 15-49 years. The current estimate of probable uptake for hypothetical HIV vaccines, using existing health services and delivery systems, was 38% of the estimated need for a high efficacy vaccine, and 19% for a low/moderate efficacy vaccine. Bridging the gap between the estimated needs and the probable uptake for HIV vaccines will represent a major public health challenge for the future. The potential advantages and disadvantages of targeted versus universal vaccination will have to be considered.

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds.

PubMed

Sergeant, E S G; Nielsen, S S; Toft, N

2008-06-15

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (PrLow) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors. Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected. Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low PrLow in infected herds, however, PrLow estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median PrLow values>0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the strategies provided enough power to establish a high PrLow in smaller herds, or herds with a younger age-structure. Despite this, it appears as if the method is a useful approach for herd-classification for most herds in the Danish dairy industry.

Evaluation of a mark-recapture method for estimating mortality and migration rates of stratified populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Rago, P.J.

1991-01-01

We simulated mark–recapture experiments to evaluate a method for estimating fishing mortality and migration rates of populations stratified at release and recovery. When fish released in two or more strata were recovered from different recapture strata in nearly the same proportions, conditional recapture probabilities were estimated outside the [0, 1] interval. The maximum likelihood estimates tended to be biased and imprecise when the patterns of recaptures produced extremely "flat" likelihood surfaces. Absence of bias was not guaranteed, however, in experiments where recapture rates could be estimated within the [0, 1] interval. Inadequate numbers of tag releases and recoveries also produced biased estimates, although the bias was easily detected by the high sampling variability of the estimates. A stratified tag–recapture experiment with sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) was used to demonstrate procedures for analyzing data that produce biased estimates of recapture probabilities. An estimator was derived to examine the sensitivity of recapture rate estimates to assumed differences in natural and tagging mortality, tag loss, and incomplete reporting of tag recoveries.

Non-Fickian dispersion of groundwater age

PubMed Central

Engdahl, Nicholas B.; Ginn, Timothy R.; Fogg, Graham E.

2014-01-01

We expand the governing equation of groundwater age to account for non-Fickian dispersive fluxes using continuous random walks. Groundwater age is included as an additional (fifth) dimension on which the volumetric mass density of water is distributed and we follow the classical random walk derivation now in five dimensions. The general solution of the random walk recovers the previous conventional model of age when the low order moments of the transition density functions remain finite at their limits and describes non-Fickian age distributions when the transition densities diverge. Previously published transition densities are then used to show how the added dimension in age affects the governing differential equations. Depending on which transition densities diverge, the resulting models may be nonlocal in time, space, or age and can describe asymptotic or pre-asymptotic dispersion. A joint distribution function of time and age transitions is developed as a conditional probability and a natural result of this is that time and age must always have identical transition rate functions. This implies that a transition density defined for age can substitute for a density in time and this has implications for transport model parameter estimation. We present examples of simulated age distributions from a geologically based, heterogeneous domain that exhibit non-Fickian behavior and show that the non-Fickian model provides better descriptions of the distributions than the Fickian model. PMID:24976651

Non-random temporary emigration and the robust design: Conditions for bias at the end of a time series: Section VIII

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.

2008-01-01

Knowing the extent and magnitude of the potential bias can help in making decisions as to what time frame provides the best estimates or the most reliable opportunity to model and test hypotheses about factors affecting survival probability. To assess bias, truncating the capture histories to shorter time frames and reanalyzing the data to compare time-specific estimates may help identify spurious effects. Running simulations that mimic the parameter values and movement conditions in the real situation can provide estimates of standardized bias that can be used to identify those annual estimates that are biased to the point where the 95% confidence intervals are inadequate in describing the uncertainty of the estimates.

Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

1998-01-01

The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated for manatees in the Blue Spring and Crystal River areas were consistent with current mammalian life history theory and other empirical data available for large, long-lived mammals. Adult survival probabilities in these areas appeared high enough to maintain growing populations if other traits such as reproductive rates and juvenile survival were also sufficiently high lower and variable survival rates on the Atlantic coast are cause for concern.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Hidden Markov models for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic J. (Inventor)

1995-01-01

The invention is a system failure monitoring method and apparatus which learns the symptom-fault mapping directly from training data. The invention first estimates the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector x of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(w(sub i) (vertical bar)/x), 1 less than or equal to i isless than or equal to m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. In this hierarchical pattern of information flow, the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making.

Hidden Markov models for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic J. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

The invention is a system failure monitoring method and apparatus which learns the symptom-fault mapping directly from training data. The invention first estimates the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector x of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(w(sub i) perpendicular to x), 1 less than or equal to i is less than or equal to m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. In this hierarchical pattern of information flow, the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making.

Spatial estimation from remotely sensed data via empirical Bayes models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, J. R.; Hinkley, D. V.; Kostal, H.; Morris, C. N.

1984-01-01

Multichannel satellite image data, available as LANDSAT imagery, are recorded as a multivariate time series (four channels, multiple passovers) in two spatial dimensions. The application of parametric empirical Bayes theory to classification of, and estimating the probability of, each crop type at each of a large number of pixels is considered. This theory involves both the probability distribution of imagery data, conditional on crop types, and the prior spatial distribution of crop types. For the latter Markov models indexed by estimable parameters are used. A broad outline of the general theory reveals several questions for further research. Some detailed results are given for the special case of two crop types when only a line transect is analyzed. Finally, the estimation of an underlying continuous process on the lattice is discussed which would be applicable to such quantities as crop yield.

Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

2009-01-01

Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Effects of tag loss on direct estimates of population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

The temporal symmetry approach of R. Pradel can be used with capture-recapture data to produce retrospective estimates of a population's growth rate, lambda(i), and the relative contributions to lambda(i) from different components of the population. Direct estimation of lambda(i) provides an alternative to using population projection matrices to estimate asymptotic lambda and is seeing increased use. However, the robustness of direct estimates of lambda(1) to violations of several key assumptions has not yet been investigated. Here, we consider tag loss as a possible source of bias for scenarios in which the rate of tag loss is (1) the same for all marked animals in the population and (2) a function of tag age. We computed analytic approximations of the expected values for each of the parameter estimators involved in direct estimation and used those values to calculate bias and precision for each parameter estimator. Estimates of lambda(i) were robust to homogeneous rates of tag loss. When tag loss rates varied by tag age, bias occurred for some of the sampling situations evaluated, especially those with low capture probability, a high rate of tag loss, or both. For situations with low rates of tag loss and high capture probability, bias was low and often negligible. Estimates of contributions of demographic components to lambda(i) were not robust to tag loss. Tag loss reduced the precision of all estimates because tag loss results in fewer marked animals remaining available for estimation. Clearly tag loss should be prevented if possible, and should be considered in analyses of lambda(i), but tag loss does not necessarily preclude unbiased estimation of lambda(i).

Prediction of Conditional Probability of Survival After Surgery for Gastric Cancer: A Study Based on Eastern and Western Large Data Sets.

PubMed

Zhong, Qing; Chen, Qi-Yue; Li, Ping; Xie, Jian-Wei; Wang, Jia-Bin; Lin, Jian-Xian; Lu, Jun; Cao, Long-Long; Lin, Mi; Tu, Ru-Hong; Zheng, Chao-Hui; Huang, Chang-Ming

2018-04-20

The dynamic prognosis of patients who have undergone curative surgery for gastric cancer has yet to be reported. Our objective was to devise an accurate tool for predicting the conditional probability of survival for these patients. We analyzed 11,551 gastric cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Two-thirds of the patients were selected randomly for the development set and one-third for the validation set. Two nomograms were constructed to predict the conditional probability of overall survival and the conditional probability of disease-specific survival, using conditional survival methods. We then applied these nomograms to the 4,001 patients in the database from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China, one of the most active Chinese institutes. The 5-year conditional probability of overall survival of the patients was 41.6% immediately after resection and increased to 52.8%, 68.2%, and 80.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years after gastrectomy. The 5-year conditional probability of disease-specific survival "increased" from 48.9% at the time of gastrectomy to 59.8%, 74.7%, and 85.5% for patients surviving 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Sex; race; age; depth of tumor invasion; lymph node metastasis; and tumor size, site, and grade were associated with overall survival and disease-specific survival (P <.05). Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results validation set, the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.77, 0.81, 0.82, and 0.82 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after gastrectomy, respectively. Within the other validation set from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 4,001), the accuracy of the conditional probability of overall survival nomogram was 0.76, 0.79, 0.77, and 0.77 at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. The accuracy of the conditional probability of disease-specific survival model was also favorable. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed survival rates. Based on the large Eastern and Western data sets, we developed and validated the first conditional nomogram for prediction of conditional probability of survival for patients with gastric cancer to allow consideration of the duration of survivorship. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities (ANEP), called probability-percent chance (P-percent chance) flow estimates, regional regression equations, and transfer methods are provided describing the low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate streamflow data. Analysis of Virginia streamflow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating low-flow characteristics of gaged and ungaged streams. The 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average streamgaging station low-flow characteristics for 290 long-term, continuous-record, streamgaging stations are determined, adjusted for instances of zero flow using a conditional probability adjustment method, and presented for non-exceedance probabilities of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.005. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression equations to estimate annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites and are summarized for 290 long-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Regional regression equations for six physiographic regions use basin characteristics to estimate 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted low-flow values that combine computed streamgaging station low-flow characteristics and annual non-exceedance probabilities from regional regression equations provide improved low-flow estimates. Regression equations developed using the Maintenance of Variance with Extension (MOVE.1) method describe the line of organic correlation (LOC) with an appropriate index site for low-flow characteristics at 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Monthly streamflow statistics computed on the individual daily mean streamflows of selected continuous-record streamgaging stations and curves describing flow-duration are presented. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing low-flow estimates, selected low-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, basin characteristics, regression equations, error estimates, definitions, and data sources. This study supersedes previous studies of low flows in Virginia.

Transmissibility of Variant Influenza From Swine to Humans: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Wong, Karen K.; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn; Swerdlow, David L.; Ostroff, Stephen; Reed, Carrie

2015-01-01

Background Respiratory illness was reported among humans and swine at an agricultural fair in 2011; 3 human infections with an influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus were confirmed. Using epidemiologic investigation data, we sought to estimate H3N2v transmissibility from swine to humans. Methods We developed a model of H3N2v transmission among swine and humans and fit it to data from a cohort of 100 agricultural club members reporting swine contact to estimate transmissibility. A sensitivity analysis was performed varying H3N2v prevalence in the club cohort. Using the best-fit transmission probability, we simulated the number of swine-acquired infections among all fair attendees. Results We estimated the best-fit probability of swine-to-human H3N2v transmission per minute of swine contact. Applying this probability to 14 910 people with swine contact at the fair, we estimate that there were 80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 40–133) H3N2v infections among persons aged <20 years and 58 (95% CI, 29–96) H3N2v infections among person aged ≥20 years. Conclusions Using early data from investigation of a new virus with unclear transmission properties, we estimated the transmissibility of H3N2v from swine to humans and the burden of H3N2v among fair attendees. Although the risk of H3N2v virus infection is small for fair attendees with minimal swine contact, large populations attend agricultural events each year, and human cases will likely occur when infected swine are present. PMID:23794727

Trackline and point detection probabilities for acoustic surveys of Cuvier's and Blainville's beaked whales.

PubMed

Barlow, Jay; Tyack, Peter L; Johnson, Mark P; Baird, Robin W; Schorr, Gregory S; Andrews, Russel D; Aguilar de Soto, Natacha

2013-09-01

Acoustic survey methods can be used to estimate density and abundance using sounds produced by cetaceans and detected using hydrophones if the probability of detection can be estimated. For passive acoustic surveys, probability of detection at zero horizontal distance from a sensor, commonly called g(0), depends on the temporal patterns of vocalizations. Methods to estimate g(0) are developed based on the assumption that a beaked whale will be detected if it is producing regular echolocation clicks directly under or above a hydrophone. Data from acoustic recording tags placed on two species of beaked whales (Cuvier's beaked whale-Ziphius cavirostris and Blainville's beaked whale-Mesoplodon densirostris) are used to directly estimate the percentage of time they produce echolocation clicks. A model of vocal behavior for these species as a function of their diving behavior is applied to other types of dive data (from time-depth recorders and time-depth-transmitting satellite tags) to indirectly determine g(0) in other locations for low ambient noise conditions. Estimates of g(0) for a single instant in time are 0.28 [standard deviation (s.d.) = 0.05] for Cuvier's beaked whale and 0.19 (s.d. = 0.01) for Blainville's beaked whale.

HISPANIC HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (HHANES)

EPA Science Inventory

The Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HHANES) was a nationwide probability sample of approximately 16,000 persons, 6 months-74 years of age. Hispanics were included in past health and nutrition examinations, but neither in sufficient numbers to produce estimates o...

Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015.

PubMed

Polis, Chelsea B; Mhango, Chisale; Philbin, Jesse; Chimwaza, Wanangwa; Chipeta, Effie; Msusa, Ausbert

2017-01-01

In Malawi, abortion is legal only if performed to save a woman's life; other attempts to procure an abortion are punishable by 7-14 years imprisonment. Most induced abortions in Malawi are performed under unsafe conditions, contributing to Malawi's high maternal mortality ratio. Malawians are currently debating whether to provide additional exceptions under which an abortion may be legally obtained. An estimated 67,300 induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2009 (equivalent to 23 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44), but changes since 2009, including dramatic increases in contraceptive prevalence, may have impacted abortion rates. We conducted a nationally representative survey of health facilities to estimate the number of cases of post-abortion care, as well as a survey of knowledgeable informants to estimate the probability of needing and obtaining post-abortion care following induced abortion. These data were combined with national population and fertility data to determine current estimates of induced abortion and unintended pregnancy in Malawi using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology. We estimate that approximately 141,044 (95% CI: 121,161-160,928) induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2015, translating to a national rate of 38 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-49 (95% CI: 32 to 43); which varied by geographical zone (range: 28-61). We estimate that 53% of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended, and that 30% of unintended pregnancies end in abortion. Given the challenges of estimating induced abortion, and the assumptions required for calculation, results should be viewed as approximate estimates, rather than exact measures. The estimated abortion rate in 2015 is higher than in 2009 (potentially due to methodological differences), but similar to recent estimates from nearby countries including Tanzania (36), Uganda (39), and regional estimates in Eastern and Southern Africa (34-35). Over half of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended. Our findings should inform ongoing efforts to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality and to improve public health in Malawi.

Incidence of induced abortion in Malawi, 2015

PubMed Central

Mhango, Chisale; Philbin, Jesse; Chimwaza, Wanangwa; Chipeta, Effie; Msusa, Ausbert

2017-01-01

Background In Malawi, abortion is legal only if performed to save a woman’s life; other attempts to procure an abortion are punishable by 7–14 years imprisonment. Most induced abortions in Malawi are performed under unsafe conditions, contributing to Malawi’s high maternal mortality ratio. Malawians are currently debating whether to provide additional exceptions under which an abortion may be legally obtained. An estimated 67,300 induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2009 (equivalent to 23 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44), but changes since 2009, including dramatic increases in contraceptive prevalence, may have impacted abortion rates. Methods We conducted a nationally representative survey of health facilities to estimate the number of cases of post-abortion care, as well as a survey of knowledgeable informants to estimate the probability of needing and obtaining post-abortion care following induced abortion. These data were combined with national population and fertility data to determine current estimates of induced abortion and unintended pregnancy in Malawi using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology. Results We estimate that approximately 141,044 (95% CI: 121,161–160,928) induced abortions occurred in Malawi in 2015, translating to a national rate of 38 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–49 (95% CI: 32 to 43); which varied by geographical zone (range: 28–61). We estimate that 53% of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended, and that 30% of unintended pregnancies end in abortion. Given the challenges of estimating induced abortion, and the assumptions required for calculation, results should be viewed as approximate estimates, rather than exact measures. Conclusions The estimated abortion rate in 2015 is higher than in 2009 (potentially due to methodological differences), but similar to recent estimates from nearby countries including Tanzania (36), Uganda (39), and regional estimates in Eastern and Southern Africa (34–35). Over half of pregnancies in Malawi are unintended. Our findings should inform ongoing efforts to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality and to improve public health in Malawi. PMID:28369114

Labor force participation among persons with musculoskeletal conditions, 1970-1987. National estimates derived from a series of cross-sections.

PubMed

Yelin, E H; Katz, P P

1991-11-01

In the present study, we estimated the labor force participation rate among persons with musculoskeletal conditions in 1987, compared this rate with that experienced by persons with other chronic conditions or with none, and estimated the change in labor force participation rates among persons with musculoskeletal conditions for the period 1970-1987. Rates were estimated from 18 years of National Health Interview Survey data, and the sampling weights from this survey were used to obtain population estimates. To ensure statistically stable estimates, we averaged the rates over 6 years of data. In 1987, 42.9% of all working-age persons with musculoskeletal conditions were out of the labor force, this study's definition of work disability. Overall labor force participation rates among persons with musculoskeletal conditions declined from 71% to 56% between 1976-1981 and 1982-1987, 22% in relative terms. Much of this decline was concentrated among men, especially men 55-64 years of age. However, women 55-64 years of age with musculoskeletal conditions also experienced declining labor force participation rates. Labor force participation patterns among persons with musculoskeletal conditions fit more general labor market trends, with gains among younger women more than offset by declines among older men and women. However, these trends appear to be more accentuated among persons with musculoskeletal conditions, suggesting that enforcement of the employment provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 place special emphasis on labor force participation among such persons.

Tuberculosis in a South African prison – a transmission modelling analysis

PubMed Central

Johnstone-Robertson, Simon; Lawn, Stephen D; Welte, Alex; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Wood, Robin

2015-01-01

Background Prisons are recognised internationally as institutions with very high tuberculosis (TB) burdens where transmission is predominantly determined by contact between infectious and susceptible prisoners. A recent South African court case described the conditions under which prisoners awaiting trial were kept. With the use of these data, a mathematical model was developed to explore the interactions between incarceration conditions and TB control measures. Methods Cell dimensions, cell occupancy, lock-up time, TB incidence and treatment delays were derived from court evidence and judicial reports. Using the Wells-Riley equation and probability analyses of contact between prisoners, we estimated the current TB transmission probability within prison cells, and estimated transmission probabilities of improved levels of case finding in combination with implementation of national and international minimum standards for incarceration. Results Levels of overcrowding (230%) in communal cells and poor TB case finding result in annual TB transmission risks of 90% per annum. Implementing current national or international cell occupancy recommendations would reduce TB transmission probabilities by 30% and 50%, respectively. Improved passive case finding, modest ventilation increase or decreased lock-up time would minimally impact on transmission if introduced individually. However, active case finding together with implementation of minimum national and international standards of incarceration could reduce transmission by 50% and 94%, respectively. Conclusions Current conditions of detention for awaiting-trial prisoners are highly conducive for spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB. Combinations of simple well-established scientific control measures should be implemented urgently. PMID:22272961

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model

PubMed Central

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

2014-01-01

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task. PMID:24860516

New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

PubMed

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

2014-01-01

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task.

Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic: Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Andrew; Ma, Edward S. K.; Lee, Cheuk Kwong; Chu, Daniel K. W.; Ho, Po-Lai; Hung, Ivan F. N.; Ho, Lai Ming; Lin, Che Kit; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Lau, Yu-Lung; Leung, Gabriel M.

2011-01-01

Background In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity. Methods and Findings We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1–2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–29 y, and 30–59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–19 y, and 20–29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30–59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%–10%. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21990967

A multistate dynamic site occupancy model for spatially aggregated sessile communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fukaya, Keiichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2017-01-01

Estimation of transition probabilities of sessile communities seems easy in principle but may still be difficult in practice because resampling error (i.e. a failure to resample exactly the same location at fixed points) may cause significant estimation bias. Previous studies have developed novel analytical methods to correct for this estimation bias. However, they did not consider the local structure of community composition induced by the aggregated distribution of organisms that is typically observed in sessile assemblages and is very likely to affect observations.We developed a multistate dynamic site occupancy model to estimate transition probabilities that accounts for resampling errors associated with local community structure. The model applies a nonparametric multivariate kernel smoothing methodology to the latent occupancy component to estimate the local state composition near each observation point, which is assumed to determine the probability distribution of data conditional on the occurrence of resampling error.By using computer simulations, we confirmed that an observation process that depends on local community structure may bias inferences about transition probabilities. By applying the proposed model to a real data set of intertidal sessile communities, we also showed that estimates of transition probabilities and of the properties of community dynamics may differ considerably when spatial dependence is taken into account.Results suggest the importance of accounting for resampling error and local community structure for developing management plans that are based on Markovian models. Our approach provides a solution to this problem that is applicable to broad sessile communities. It can even accommodate an anisotropic spatial correlation of species composition, and may also serve as a basis for inferring complex nonlinear ecological dynamics.

WIC in Your Neighborhood: New Evidence on the Impacts of Geographic Access to Clinics

PubMed Central

Rossin-Slater, Maya

2013-01-01

A large body of evidence indicates that conditions in-utero and health at birth matter for individuals’ long-run outcomes, suggesting potential value in programs aimed at pregnant women and young children. This paper uses a novel identification strategy and data from birth and administrative records over 2005–2009 to provide causal estimates of the effects of geographic access to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). My empirical approach uses within-ZIP-code variation in WIC clinic presence together with maternal fixed effects, and accounts for the potential endogeneity of mobility, gestational-age bias, and measurement error in gestation. I find that access to WIC increases food benefit take-up, pregnancy weight gain, birth weight, and the probability of breastfeeding initiation at the time of hospital discharge. The estimated effects are strongest for mothers with a high school education or less, who are most likely eligible for WIC services. PMID:24043906

Maximum entropy approach to statistical inference for an ocean acoustic waveguide.

PubMed

Knobles, D P; Sagers, J D; Koch, R A

2012-02-01

A conditional probability distribution suitable for estimating the statistical properties of ocean seabed parameter values inferred from acoustic measurements is derived from a maximum entropy principle. The specification of the expectation value for an error function constrains the maximization of an entropy functional. This constraint determines the sensitivity factor (β) to the error function of the resulting probability distribution, which is a canonical form that provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty of the parameter values. From the conditional distribution, marginal distributions for individual parameters can be determined from integration over the other parameters. The approach is an alternative to obtaining the posterior probability distribution without an intermediary determination of the likelihood function followed by an application of Bayes' rule. In this paper the expectation value that specifies the constraint is determined from the values of the error function for the model solutions obtained from a sparse number of data samples. The method is applied to ocean acoustic measurements taken on the New Jersey continental shelf. The marginal probability distribution for the values of the sound speed ratio at the surface of the seabed and the source levels of a towed source are examined for different geoacoustic model representations. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

PubMed

Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

2018-03-01

Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does Retiree Health Insurance Encourage Early Retirement?*

PubMed Central

Nyce, Steven; Schieber, Sylvester J.; Shoven, John B.; Slavov, Sita Nataraj; Wise, David A.

2013-01-01

The strong link between health insurance and employment in the United States may cause workers to delay retirement until they become eligible for Medicare at age 65. However, some employers extend health insurance benefits to their retirees, and individuals who are eligible for such retiree health benefits need not wait until age 65 to retire with group health coverage. We investigate the impact of retiree health insurance on early retirement using employee-level data from 54 diverse firms that are clients of Towers Watson, a leading benefits consulting firm. We find that retiree health coverage has its strongest effects at ages 62 through 64. Coverage that includes an employer contribution is associated with a 6.3 percentage point (36.2 percent) increase in the probability of turnover at age 62, a 7.7 percentage point (48.8 percent) increase in the probability of turnover at age 63, and a 5.5 percentage point (38.0 percent) increase in the probability of turnover at age 64. Conditional on working at age 57, such coverage reduces the expected retirement age by almost three months and reduces the total number of person-years worked between ages 58 and 64 by 5.6 percent. PMID:24039312

Accounting for multimorbidity can affect the estimation of the Burden of Disease: a comparison of approaches.

PubMed

Hilderink, Henk B M; Plasmans, Marjanne H D; Snijders, Bianca E P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Poos, M J J C René; van Gool, Coen H

2016-01-01

Various Burden of Disease (BoD) studies do not account for multimorbidity in their BoD estimates. Ignoring multimorbidity can lead to inaccuracies in BoD estimations, particularly in ageing populations that include large proportions of persons with two or more health conditions. The objective of this study is to improve BoD estimates for the Netherlands by accounting for multimorbidity. For this purpose, we analyzed different methods for 1) estimating the prevalence of multimorbidity and 2) deriving Disability Weights (DWs) for multimorbidity by using existing data on single health conditions. We included 25 health conditions from the Dutch Burden of Disease study that have a high rate of prevalence and that make a large contribution to the total number of Years Lived with a Disability (YLD). First, we analyzed four methods for estimating the prevalence of multimorbid conditions (i.e. independent, independent age- and sex-specific, dependent, and dependent sex- and age-specific). Secondly, we analyzed three methods for calculating the Combined Disability Weights (CDWs) associated with multimorbid conditions (i.e. additive, multiplicative and maximum limit). A combination of these two approaches was used to recalculate the number of YLDs, which is a component of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). This study shows that the YLD estimates for 25 health conditions calculated using the multiplicative method for Combined Disability Weights are 5 % lower, and 14 % lower when using the maximum limit method, than when calculated using the additive method. Adjusting for sex- and age-specific dependent co-occurrence of health conditions reduces the number of YLDs by 10 % for the multiplicative method and by 26 % for the maximum limit method. The adjustment is higher for health conditions with a higher prevalence in old age, like heart failure (up to 43 %) and coronary heart diseases (up to 33 %). Health conditions with a high prevalence in middle age, such as anxiety disorders, have a moderate adjustment (up to 13 %). We conclude that BoD calculations that do not account for multimorbidity can result in an overestimation of the actual BoD. This may affect public health policy strategies that focus on single health conditions if the underlying cost-effectiveness analysis overestimates the intended effects. The methodology used in this study could be further refined to provide greater insight into co-occurrence and the possible consequences of multimorbid conditions in terms of disability for particular combinations of health conditions.

A new approach to estimate time-to-cure from cancer registries data.

PubMed

Boussari, Olayidé; Romain, Gaëlle; Remontet, Laurent; Bossard, Nadine; Mounier, Morgane; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Binquet, Christine; Colonna, Marc; Jooste, Valérie

2018-04-01

Cure models have been adapted to net survival context to provide important indicators from population-based cancer data, such as the cure fraction and the time-to-cure. However existing methods for computing time-to-cure suffer from some limitations. Cure models in net survival framework were briefly overviewed and a new definition of time-to-cure was introduced as the time TTC at which P(t), the estimated covariate-specific probability of being cured at a given time t after diagnosis, reaches 0.95. We applied flexible parametric cure models to data of four cancer sites provided by the French network of cancer registries (FRANCIM). Then estimates of the time-to-cure by TTC and by two existing methods were derived and compared. Cure fractions and probabilities P(t) were also computed. Depending on the age group, TTC ranged from to 8 to 10 years for colorectal and pancreatic cancer and was nearly 12 years for breast cancer. In thyroid cancer patients under 55 years at diagnosis, TTC was strikingly 0: the probability of being cured was >0.95 just after diagnosis. This is an interesting result regarding the health insurance premiums of these patients. The estimated values of time-to-cure from the three approaches were close for colorectal cancer only. We propose a new approach, based on estimated covariate-specific probability of being cured, to estimate time-to-cure. Compared to two existing methods, the new approach seems to be more intuitive and natural and less sensitive to the survival time distribution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

PubMed

Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

2015-05-20

We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Studies on possible propagation of microbial contamination in planetary clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dimmick, R. L.; Chatigny, M. A.; Wolochow, H.

1973-01-01

One of the key parameters in estimation of the probability of contamintion of the outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, etc.) is the probability of growth (Pg) of terrestrial microorganisms on or near these planets. For example, Jupiter appears to have an atmosphere in which some microbial species could metabolize and propagate. This study includes investigation of the likelihood of metabolism and propagation of microbes suspended in dynamic atmospheres. It is directed toward providing experimental information needed to aid in rational estimation of Pg for these outer planets. Current work is directed at demonstration of aerial metabolism under near optimal conditions and tests of propagation in simulated Jovian atmospheres.

Assessing the sensitivity of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Canada's cattle population, 2009-2013.

PubMed

El Allaki, Farouk; Harrington, Noel; Howden, Krista

2016-11-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to estimate the annual sensitivity of Canada's bTB surveillance system and its three system components (slaughter surveillance, export testing and disease investigation) using a scenario tree modelling approach, and (2) to identify key model parameters that influence the estimates of the surveillance system sensitivity (SSSe). To achieve these objectives, we designed stochastic scenario tree models for three surveillance system components included in the analysis. Demographic data, slaughter data, export testing data, and disease investigation data from 2009 to 2013 were extracted for input into the scenario trees. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key influential parameters on SSSe estimates. The median annual SSSe estimates generated from the study were very high, ranging from 0.95 (95% probability interval [PI]: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). Median annual sensitivity estimates for the slaughter surveillance component ranged from 0.95 (95% PI: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). This shows that slaughter surveillance to be the major contributor to overall surveillance system sensitivity with a high probability to detect M. bovis infection if present at a prevalence of 0.00028% or greater during the study period. The export testing and disease investigation components had extremely low component sensitivity estimates-the maximum median sensitivity estimates were 0.02 (95% PI: 0.014-0.023) and 0.0061 (95% PI: 0.0056-0.0066) respectively. The three most influential input parameters on the model's output (SSSe) were the probability of a granuloma being detected at slaughter inspection, the probability of a granuloma being present in older animals (≥12 months of age), and the probability of a granuloma sample being submitted to the laboratory. Additional studies are required to reduce the levels of uncertainty and variability associated with these three parameters influencing the surveillance system sensitivity. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Bayesian Estimator for Audio-Visual Integration: A Neurocomputational Study

PubMed Central

Ursino, Mauro; Crisafulli, Andrea; di Pellegrino, Giuseppe; Magosso, Elisa; Cuppini, Cristiano

2017-01-01

The brain integrates information from different sensory modalities to generate a coherent and accurate percept of external events. Several experimental studies suggest that this integration follows the principle of Bayesian estimate. However, the neural mechanisms responsible for this behavior, and its development in a multisensory environment, are still insufficiently understood. We recently presented a neural network model of audio-visual integration (Neural Computation, 2017) to investigate how a Bayesian estimator can spontaneously develop from the statistics of external stimuli. Model assumes the presence of two unimodal areas (auditory and visual) topologically organized. Neurons in each area receive an input from the external environment, computed as the inner product of the sensory-specific stimulus and the receptive field synapses, and a cross-modal input from neurons of the other modality. Based on sensory experience, synapses were trained via Hebbian potentiation and a decay term. Aim of this work is to improve the previous model, including a more realistic distribution of visual stimuli: visual stimuli have a higher spatial accuracy at the central azimuthal coordinate and a lower accuracy at the periphery. Moreover, their prior probability is higher at the center, and decreases toward the periphery. Simulations show that, after training, the receptive fields of visual and auditory neurons shrink to reproduce the accuracy of the input (both at the center and at the periphery in the visual case), thus realizing the likelihood estimate of unimodal spatial position. Moreover, the preferred positions of visual neurons contract toward the center, thus encoding the prior probability of the visual input. Finally, a prior probability of the co-occurrence of audio-visual stimuli is encoded in the cross-modal synapses. The model is able to simulate the main properties of a Bayesian estimator and to reproduce behavioral data in all conditions examined. In particular, in unisensory conditions the visual estimates exhibit a bias toward the fovea, which increases with the level of noise. In cross modal conditions, the SD of the estimates decreases when using congruent audio-visual stimuli, and a ventriloquism effect becomes evident in case of spatially disparate stimuli. Moreover, the ventriloquism decreases with the eccentricity. PMID:29046631

Cumulative risk of false positive test in relation to breast symptoms in mammography screening: a historical prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Singh, Deependra; Pitkäniemi, Janne; Malila, Nea; Anttila, Ahti

2016-09-01

Mammography has been found effective as the primary screening test for breast cancer. We estimated the cumulative probability of false positive screening test results with respect to symptom history reported at screen. A historical prospective cohort study was done using individual screening data from 413,611 women aged 50-69 years with 2,627,256 invitations for mammography screening between 1992 and 2012 in Finland. Symptoms (lump, retraction, and secretion) were reported at 56,805 visits, and 48,873 visits resulted in a false positive mammography result. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of at least one false positive test and true positive at screening visits. The estimates were compared among women with and without symptoms history. The estimated cumulative probabilities were 18 and 6 % for false positive and true positive results, respectively. In women with a history of a lump, the cumulative probabilities of false positive test and true positive were 45 and 16 %, respectively, compared to 17 and 5 % with no reported lump. In women with a history of any given symptom, the cumulative probabilities of false positive test and true positive were 38 and 13 %, respectively. Likewise, women with a history of a 'lump and retraction' had the cumulative false positive probability of 56 %. The study showed higher cumulative risk of false positive tests and more cancers detected in women who reported symptoms compared to women who did not report symptoms at screen. The risk varies substantially, depending on symptom types and characteristics. Information on breast symptoms influences the balance of absolute benefits and harms of screening.

Disability Weight of Clonorchis sinensis Infection: Captured from Community Study and Model Simulation

PubMed Central

Qian, Men-Bao; Chen, Ying-Dan; Fang, Yue-Yi; Xu, Long-Qi; Zhu, Ting-Jun; Tan, Tan; Zhou, Chang-Hai; Wang, Guo-Fei; Jia, Tie-Wu; Yang, Guo-Jing; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2011-01-01

Background Clonorchiasis is among the most neglected tropical diseases. It is caused by ingesting raw or undercooked fish or shrimp containing the larval of Clonorchis sinensis and mainly endemic in Southeast Asia including China, Korea and Vietnam. The global estimations for population at risk and infected are 601 million and 35 million, respectively. However, it is still not listed among the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and no disability weight is available for it. Disability weight reflects the average degree of loss of life value due to certain chronic disease condition and ranges between 0 (complete health) and 1 (death). It is crucial parameter for calculating the morbidity part of any disease burden in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methodology/Principal Findings According to the probability and disability weight of single sequelae caused by C. sinensis infection, the overall disability weight could be captured through Monte Carlo simulation. The probability of single sequelae was gained from one community investigation, while the corresponding disability weight was searched from the literatures in evidence-based approach. The overall disability weights of the male and female were 0.101 and 0.050, respectively. The overall disability weights of the age group of 5–14, 15–29, 30–44, 45–59 and 60+ were 0.022, 0.052, 0.072, 0.094 and 0.118, respectively. There was some evidence showing that the disability weight and geometric mean of eggs per gram of feces (GMEPG) fitted a logarithmic equation. Conclusion/Significance The overall disability weights of C. sinensis infection are differential in different sex and age groups. The disability weight captured here may be referred for estimating the disease burden of C. sinensis infection. PMID:22180791

Simulated fissioning of uranium and testing of the fission-track dating method

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, V.E.; Johnson, N.M.; Naeser, C.W.

1985-01-01

A computer program (FTD-SIM) faithfully simulates the fissioning of 238U with time and 235U with neutron dose. The simulation is based on first principles of physics where the fissioning of 238U with the flux of time is described by Ns = ??f 238Ut and the fissioning of 235U with the fluence of neutrons is described by Ni = ??235U??. The Poisson law is used to set the stochastic variation of fissioning within the uranium population. The life history of a given crystal can thus be traced under an infinite variety of age and irradiation conditions. A single dating attempt or up to 500 dating attempts on a given crystal population can be simulated by specifying the age of the crystal population, the size and variation in the areas to be counted, the amount and distribution of uranium, the neutron dose to be used and its variation, and the desired ratio of 238U to 235U. A variety of probability distributions can be applied to uranium and counting-area. The Price and Walker age equation is used to estimate age. The output of FTD-SIM includes the tabulated results of each individual dating attempt (sample) on demand and/or the summary statistics and histograms for multiple dating attempts (samples) including the sampling age. An analysis of the results from FTD-SIM shows that: (1) The external detector method is intrinsically more precise than the population method. (2) For the external detector method a correlation between spontaneous track count, Ns, and induced track count, Ni, results when the population of grains has a stochastic uranium content and/or when the counting areas between grains are stochastic. For the population method no correlation can exist. (3) In the external detector method the sampling distribution of age is independent of the number of grains counted. In the population method the sampling distribution of age is highly dependent on the number of grains counted. (4) Grains with zero-track counts, either in Ns or Ni, are in integral part of fissioning theory and under certain circumstances must be included in any estimate of age. (5) In estimating standard error of age the standard error of Ns and Ni and ?? must be accurately estimated and propagated through the age equation. Several statistical models are presently available to do so. ?? 1985.

Development of a standard soil-to-skin adherence probability density function for use in Monte Carlo analyses of dermal exposure.

PubMed

Finley, B L; Scott, P K; Mayhall, D A

1994-08-01

It has recently been suggested that "standard" data distributions for key exposure variables should be developed wherever appropriate for use in probabilistic or "Monte Carlo" exposure analyses. Soil-on-skin adherence estimates represent an ideal candidate for development of a standard data distribution: There are several readily available studies which offer a consistent pattern of reported results, and more importantly, soil adherence to skin is likely to vary little from site-to-site. In this paper, we thoroughly review each of the published soil adherence studies with respect to study design, sampling, and analytical methods, and level of confidence in the reported results. Based on these studies, probability density functions (PDF) of soil adherence values were examined for different age groups and different sampling techniques. The soil adherence PDF developed from adult data was found to resemble closely the soil adherence PDF based on child data in terms of both central tendency (mean = 0.49 and 0.63 mg-soil/cm2-skin, respectively) and 95th percentile values (1.6 and 2.4 mg-soil/cm2-skin, respectively). Accordingly, a single, "standard" PDF is presented based on all data collected for all age groups. This standard PDF is lognormally distributed; the arithmetic mean and standard deviation are 0.52 +/- 0.9 mg-soil/cm2-skin. Since our review of the literature indicates that soil adherence under environmental conditions will be minimally influenced by age, sex, soil type, or particle size, this PDF should be considered applicable to all settings. The 50th and 95th percentile values of the standard PDF (0.25 and 1.7 mg-soil/cm2-skin, respectively) are very similar to recent U.S. EPA estimates of "average" and "upper-bound" soil adherence (0.2 and 1.0 mg-soil/cm2-skin, respectively).

Long-term health and medical cost impact of smoking prevention in adolescence.

PubMed

Wang, Li Yan; Michael, Shannon L

2015-02-01

To estimate smoking progression probabilities from adolescence to young adulthood and to estimate long-term health and medical cost impacts of preventing smoking in today's adolescents. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we first estimated smoking progression probabilities from adolescence to young adulthood. Then, using the predicted probabilities, we estimated the number of adolescents who were prevented from becoming adult daily smokers as a result of a hypothetical 1 percentage point reduction in the prevalence of ever smoking in today's adolescents. We further estimated lifetime medical costs saved and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of preventing adolescents from becoming adult daily smokers. All costs were in 2010 dollars. Compared with never smokers, those who had tried smoking at baseline had higher probabilities of becoming current or former daily smokers at follow-up regardless of baseline grade or sex. A hypothetical 1 percentage point reduction in the prevalence of ever smoking in 24.5 million students in 7th-12th grades today could prevent 35,962 individuals from becoming a former daily smoker and 44,318 individuals from becoming a current daily smoker at ages 24-32 years. As a result, lifetime medical care costs are estimated to decrease by $1.2 billion and lifetime QALYs is estimated to increase by 98,590. Effective smoking prevention programs for adolescents go beyond reducing smoking prevalence in adolescence; they also reduce daily smokers in young adulthood, increase QALYs, and reduce medical costs substantially in later life. This finding indicates the importance of continued investment in effective youth smoking prevention programs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Does Age of Entrance Affect Community College Completion Probabilities? Evidence from a Discrete-Time Hazard Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calcagno, Juan Carlos; Crosta, Peter; Bailey, Thomas; Jenkins, Davis

2007-01-01

Research has consistently shown that older students--those who enter college for the first time at age 25 or older--are less likely to complete a degree or certificate. The authors estimate a single-risk discrete-time hazard model using transcript data on a cohort of first-time community college students in Florida to compare the educational…

Reliable evaluation of the quantal determinants of synaptic efficacy using Bayesian analysis

PubMed Central

Beato, M.

2013-01-01

Communication between neurones in the central nervous system depends on synaptic transmission. The efficacy of synapses is determined by pre- and postsynaptic factors that can be characterized using quantal parameters such as the probability of neurotransmitter release, number of release sites, and quantal size. Existing methods of estimating the quantal parameters based on multiple probability fluctuation analysis (MPFA) are limited by their requirement for long recordings to acquire substantial data sets. We therefore devised an algorithm, termed Bayesian Quantal Analysis (BQA), that can yield accurate estimates of the quantal parameters from data sets of as small a size as 60 observations for each of only 2 conditions of release probability. Computer simulations are used to compare its performance in accuracy with that of MPFA, while varying the number of observations and the simulated range in release probability. We challenge BQA with realistic complexities characteristic of complex synapses, such as increases in the intra- or intersite variances, and heterogeneity in release probabilities. Finally, we validate the method using experimental data obtained from electrophysiological recordings to show that the effect of an antagonist on postsynaptic receptors is correctly characterized by BQA by a specific reduction in the estimates of quantal size. Since BQA routinely yields reliable estimates of the quantal parameters from small data sets, it is ideally suited to identify the locus of synaptic plasticity for experiments in which repeated manipulations of the recording environment are unfeasible. PMID:23076101

Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

PubMed

Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

2015-12-01

A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential Revision of Belief, Trust Type, and the Order Effect.

PubMed

Entin, Elliot E; Serfaty, Daniel

2017-05-01

Objective To investigate how people's sequential adjustments to their position are impacted by the source of the information. Background There is an extensive body of research on how the order in which new information is received affects people's final views and decisions as well as research on how they adjust their views in light of new information. Method Seventy college-aged students, 60% of whom were women, completed one of eight different randomly distributed booklets prepared to create the eight different between-subjects treatment conditions created by crossing the two levels of information source with the four level of order conditions. Based on the information provided, participants estimated the probability of an attack, the dependent measure. Results Confirming information from an expert intelligence officer significantly increased the attack probability from the initial position more than confirming information from a longtime friend. Conversely, disconfirming information from a longtime friend decreased the attack probability significantly more than the same information from an intelligence officer. Conclusion It was confirmed that confirming and disconfirming evidence were differentially affected depending on information source, either an expert or a close friend. The difference appears to be due to the existence of two kinds of trust: cognitive-based imbued to an expert and affective-based imbued to a close friend. Application Purveyors of information need to understand that it is not only the content of a message that counts but that other forces are at work such as the order in which information is received and characteristics of the information source.

Ten-year incidence of dementia in a rural elderly US community population: the MoVIES Project.

PubMed

Ganguli, M; Dodge, H H; Chen, P; Belle, S; DeKosky, S T

2000-03-14

To determine incidence rates by age, sex, and education of overall dementia and probable/ possible AD in a largely rural community. Ten-year prospective study of a randomly selected community sample aged 65+; biennial cognitive screening followed by standardized clinical evaluation. Incidence rates were estimated for overall dementia (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd ed., revised, criteria and Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR]) and for probable/possible AD (National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke-Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria). The cohort consisted of 1,298 individuals free of dementia at study entry. Among these, 199 incident (new) cases of overall (all-cause) dementia with CDR stage > or = 0.5, including 110 with CDR > or = 1, were detected during follow-up. Among the incident cases, 153 (76.9%) had probable/ possible AD. Age-specific incidence rates are reported for all dementia and for probable/possible AD, by sex and CDR stage. Among all-cause dementias with CDR = 0.5, controlling for age and education, men had a higher incidence rate than women. In the same group, those with less than high school education had significantly higher incidence rates than those with more education. Rates did not vary significantly by sex or education for probable/possible AD or for dementia with CDR > or = 1. Incidence rates of all dementias and of AD increased with age; men and those with lesser education had higher rates of possible/incipient dementia (CDR = 0.5) in this community. Potential explanations for these sex and education effects are discussed.

Sociodemographic characteristics and chronic medical conditions as risk factors for herpes zoster

PubMed Central

Esteban-Vasallo, María D; Domínguez-Berjón, M Felicitas; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Astray-Mochales, Jenaro; Gil de Miguel, Ángel

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to estimate incidence density rates (IDR) of herpes zoster (HZ) and to analyze the association with sociodemographic characteristics and selected chronic medical conditions. The study cohort consisted of the adult population included in the Public Health System of the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain on 1/10/2009 (5 244 402 persons). Data source were electronic medical records from primary care between 1/10/2009–31/12/2012. Individual socioeconomic status (SES) was inferred by geocoding. Poisson regression analyses were stratified by sex, to identify factors associated with HZ. We identified 81 541 incident cases of HZ (61.7% in women and 46.5% in the group aged 60 and over). IDR was 4.11 per 1000 person-years in men and 5.95 in women. IDR were higher with age, in autochthonous population, those with lower SES and in patients with immunodeficiencies. After adjustment, higher incidence rate ratios were found with age, autochthonous origin, lower SES, and in patients with HIV-infection/AIDS (3.20, CI95% 2.90–3.53 in men and 2.98, CI95% 2.58–3.45 in women), and other immunodeficiencies (1.57, CI95% 1.41–1.75 and 1.65, CI95% 1.50–1.80). COPD, asthma, DM, ischemic heart disease, other cardiovascular diseases, and cancer were also associated with an increased incidence of HZ. We conclude that older, autochthonous patients with lower SES and with certain underlying medical conditions had a higher probability of suffering HZ. Electronic databases are useful for estimating the incidence of HZ, and for finding associations with sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Identifying unrecognized risk factors for HZ, such as asthma or cardiovascular diseases, is crucial to interpret the epidemiology of HZ, to target vaccination programs and to monitor their effect. PMID:24805130

Sociodemographic characteristics and chronic medical conditions as risk factors for herpes zoster: a population-based study from primary care in Madrid (Spain).

PubMed

Esteban-Vasallo, María D; Domínguez-Berjón, M Felicitas; Gil-Prieto, Ruth; Astray-Mochales, Jenaro; Gil de Miguel, Angel

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to estimate incidence density rates (IDR) of herpes zoster (HZ) and to analyze the association with sociodemographic characteristics and selected chronic medical conditions. The study cohort consisted of the adult population included in the Public Health System of the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain on 1/10/2009 (5 244 402 persons). Data source were electronic medical records from primary care between 1/10/2009-31/12/2012. Individual socioeconomic status (SES) was inferred by geocoding. Poisson regression analyses were stratified by sex, to identify factors associated with HZ. We identified 81 541 incident cases of HZ (61.7% in women and 46.5% in the group aged 60 and over). IDR was 4.11 per 1000 person-years in men and 5.95 in women. IDR were higher with age, in autochthonous population, those with lower SES and in patients with immunodeficiencies. After adjustment, higher incidence rate ratios were found with age, autochthonous origin, lower SES, and in patients with HIV-infection/AIDS (3.20, CI95% 2.90-3.53 in men and 2.98, CI95% 2.58-3.45 in women), and other immunodeficiencies (1.57, CI95% 1.41-1.75 and 1.65, CI95% 1.50-1.80). COPD, asthma, DM, ischemic heart disease, other cardiovascular diseases, and cancer were also associated with an increased incidence of HZ. We conclude that older, autochthonous patients with lower SES and with certain underlying medical conditions had a higher probability of suffering HZ. Electronic databases are useful for estimating the incidence of HZ, and for finding associations with sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Identifying unrecognized risk factors for HZ, such as asthma or cardiovascular diseases, is crucial to interpret the epidemiology of HZ, to target vaccination programs and to monitor their effect.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Zúñiga-Vega, J Jaime; Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby ( Sula nebouxii ), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments.

Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

2018-01-01

In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2010-01-01

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.

1986-01-01

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Stand conditions associated with roundheaded pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) infestations in Arizona and Utah

Treesearch

Jose F. Negron; Jill L. Wilson; John A. Anhold

2000-01-01

Stand conditions associated with outbreak populations of the roundheaded pine beetle, Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford, in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., forests were studied in the Pinaleno Mountains, AZ, and the Pine Valley Mountains, UT. Classification tree models to estimate the probability of infestation based on stand attributes were built for...

Estimation of stream salamander (Plethodontidae, Desmognathinae and Plethodontinae) populations in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jung, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sauer, J.R.; Addison, C.; Rau, R.D.; Shirk, J.L.; Whissel, J.C.

2005-01-01

Stream salamanders in the family Plethodontidae constitute a large biomass in and near headwater streams in the eastern United States and are promising indicators of stream ecosystem health. Many studies of stream salamanders have relied on population indices based on counts rather than population estimates based on techniques such as capture-recapture and removal. Application of estimation procedures allows the calculation of detection probabilities (the proportion of total animals present that are detected during a survey) and their associated sampling error, and may be essential for determining salamander population sizes and trends. In 1999, we conducted capture-recapture and removal population estimation methods for Desmognathus salamanders at six streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Removal sampling appeared more efficient and detection probabilities from removal data were higher than those from capture-recapture. During 2001-2004, we used removal estimation at eight streams in the park to assess the usefulness of this technique for long-term monitoring of stream salamanders. Removal detection probabilities ranged from 0.39 to 0.96 for Desmognathus, 0.27 to 0.89 for Eurycea and 0.27 to 0.75 for northern spring (Gyrinophilus porphyriticus) and northern red (Pseudotriton ruber) salamanders across stream transects. Detection probabilities did not differ across years for Desmognathus and Eurycea, but did differ among streams for Desmognathus. Population estimates of Desmognathus decreased between 2001-2002 and 2003-2004 which may be related to changes in stream flow conditions. Removal-based procedures may be a feasible approach for population estimation of salamanders, but field methods should be designed to meet the assumptions of the sampling procedures. New approaches to estimating stream salamander populations are discussed.

Air abrasion experiments in U-Pb dating of zircon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldich, S.S.; Fischer, L.B.

1986-01-01

Air abrasion of zircon grains can remove metamict material that has lost radiogenic Pb and zircon overgrowths that were added during younger events and thereby improve the precision of the age measurements and permit closer estimates of the original age. Age discordance that resulted from a single disturbance of the U-Pb isotopic decay systems, as had been demonstrated by T.E. Krogh, can be considerably reduced, and, under favorable conditions, the ages brought into concordancy. Two or more events complicate the U-Pb systematics, but a series of abrasion experiments can be helpful in deciphering the geologic history and in arriving at a useful interpretation of the probable times of origin and disturbances. In east-central Minnesota, U.S.A., Penokean tonalite gneiss is dated at 1869 ?? 5 Ma, and sheared granite gneiss is shown to have been a high-level granite intrusion at 1982 ?? 5 Ma in the McGrath Gneiss precursor. Tonalite gneiss and a mafic granodiorite in the Rainy Lake area, Ontario, Canada, are dated at 2736 ?? 16 and 2682 ?? 4 Ma, respectively. The tonalitic phase of the Morton Gneiss, southwestern Minnesota, is dated at 3662 ?? 42 Ma. ?? 1986.

Development and Validation of a Calculator for Estimating the Probability of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Febrile Children.

PubMed

Shaikh, Nader; Hoberman, Alejandro; Hum, Stephanie W; Alberty, Anastasia; Muniz, Gysella; Kurs-Lasky, Marcia; Landsittel, Douglas; Shope, Timothy

2018-06-01

Accurately estimating the probability of urinary tract infection (UTI) in febrile preverbal children is necessary to appropriately target testing and treatment. To develop and test a calculator (UTICalc) that can first estimate the probability of UTI based on clinical variables and then update that probability based on laboratory results. Review of electronic medical records of febrile children aged 2 to 23 months who were brought to the emergency department of Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An independent training database comprising 1686 patients brought to the emergency department between January 1, 2007, and April 30, 2013, and a validation database of 384 patients were created. Five multivariable logistic regression models for predicting risk of UTI were trained and tested. The clinical model included only clinical variables; the remaining models incorporated laboratory results. Data analysis was performed between June 18, 2013, and January 12, 2018. Documented temperature of 38°C or higher in children aged 2 months to less than 2 years. With the use of culture-confirmed UTI as the main outcome, cutoffs for high and low UTI risk were identified for each model. The resultant models were incorporated into a calculation tool, UTICalc, which was used to evaluate medical records. A total of 2070 children were included in the study. The training database comprised 1686 children, of whom 1216 (72.1%) were female and 1167 (69.2%) white. The validation database comprised 384 children, of whom 291 (75.8%) were female and 200 (52.1%) white. Compared with the American Academy of Pediatrics algorithm, the clinical model in UTICalc reduced testing by 8.1% (95% CI, 4.2%-12.0%) and decreased the number of UTIs that were missed from 3 cases to none. Compared with empirically treating all children with a leukocyte esterase test result of 1+ or higher, the dipstick model in UTICalc would have reduced the number of treatment delays by 10.6% (95% CI, 0.9%-20.4%). UTICalc estimates the probability of UTI by evaluating the risk factors present in the individual child. As a result, testing and treatment can be tailored, thereby improving outcomes for children with UTI.

Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis

PubMed Central

Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B.; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G.

2016-01-01

Background: Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. Aims: The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Settings and Design: Sixty subjects aged 20–85 years were included in the study. Materials and Methods: For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections—cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root—were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. Statistical Analysis Used: All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Results and Conclusions: Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation (r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level. PMID:28123269

Vaccination Timeliness in Children Under India's Universal Immunization Program.

PubMed

Shrivastwa, Nijika; Gillespie, Brenda W; Lepkowski, James M; Boulton, Matthew L

2016-09-01

India has the highest number of deaths among children younger than 5 years of age globally; the majority are from vaccine preventable diseases. Untimely vaccination unnecessarily prolongs susceptibility to disease and contributes to the burden of childhood morbidity and mortality, yet there is scarce literature on vaccination delays. The aim of this study is to characterize the timeliness of childhood vaccinations administered under India's routine immunization program using a novel application of an existing statistical methodology. This study utilized the district level household and facility survey data, 2008 from India using vaccination data from children with and without immunization cards. Turnbull estimator of the cumulative distribution function was used to estimate the probability of vaccination at each age. Timeliness of Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), all 3 doses of diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus vaccine (DPT) and measles-containing vaccine (MCV) were considered for this analysis. Vaccination data on 268,553 children who were 0-60 months of age were analyzed; timely administration of BCG, DPT3 and MCV occurred in 31%, 19% and 34% of children, respectively. The estimated vaccination probability plateaued for DPT and BCG around the age of 24 months, whereas MCV uptake increased another 5% after 24 months of age. The 5-year coverage of BCG, DPT3 and MCV in Indian children was 87%, 63% and 76%, respectively. Lack of timely administration of key childhood vaccines, especially DPT3 and MCV, remains a major challenge in India and likely contributes to the significant burden of vaccine preventable disease-related morbidity and mortality in children.

Caesarean section greatly increases risk of scar endometriosis.

PubMed

Nominato, Nilo Sérgio; Prates, Luis Felipe Victor Spyer; Lauar, Isabela; Morais, Jaqueline; Maia, Laura; Geber, Selmo

2010-09-01

To estimate the incidence of scar endometriosis after different surgical procedures. A retrospective study of 72 patients diagnosed with scar endometriosis between 1978 and 2003 was performed. Patient age, site of endometriosis, previous operations, time-gap between last surgery and onset of symptoms, nodule characteristics, and recurrence were evaluated. Age ranged from 16 to 48 years. Location varied according to the previous surgery: 46 caesarean section, one hysterectomy, one in abdominal surgery, 19 episiotomy, one was a relapse and two pelvic floor procedures, two women with no previous surgery. The incidence of scar endometriosis after caesarean section was significantly higher than after episiotomy (0.2 and 0.06%, respectively: p<0.00001) with a relative risk of 3.3. Pain was the most frequent symptom. The mean time between surgery and onset of symptoms was 3.7 years. Our findings confirm that scar endometriosis is a rare condition and indicate, probably for the first time, that caesarean section greatly increases the risk of developing scar endometriosis. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants of between-year burrow re-occupation in a colony of the European bee-eater Merops apiaster.

PubMed

Brust, Vera; Bastian, Hans-Valentin; Bastian, Anita; Schmoll, Tim

2015-08-01

Re-occupation of existing nesting burrows in the European bee-eater Merops apiaster has only rarely - and if so mostly anecdotically - been documented in the literature record, although such behavior would substantially save time and energy. In this study, we quantify burrow re-occupation in a German colony over a period of eleven years and identify ecological variables determining reuse probability. Of 179 recorded broods, 54% took place in a reused burrow and the overall probability that one of 75 individually recognized burrows would be reused in a given subsequent year was estimated as 26.4%. This indicates that between-year burrow reuse is a common behavior in the study colony which contrasts with findings from studies in other colonies. Furthermore, burrow re-occupation probability declined highly significantly with increasing age of the breeding wall. Statistical separation of within- and between-burrow effects of the age of the breeding wall revealed that a decline in re-occupation probability with individual burrow age was responsible for this and not a selective disappearance of burrows with high re-occupation probability over time. Limited duty cycles of individual burrows may be caused by accumulating detritus or decreasing stability with increasing burrow age. Alternatively, burrow fidelity may presuppose pair fidelity which may also explain the observed restricted burrow reuse duty cycles. A consequent next step would be to extend our within-colony approach to other colonies and compare the ecological circumstances under which bee-eaters reuse breeding burrows.

Seasonal variation in size-dependent survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Performance of multistate capture-mark-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Letcher, B.H.; Horton, G.E.

2008-01-01

We estimated the magnitude and shape of size-dependent survival (SDS) across multiple sampling intervals for two cohorts of stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) juveniles using multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models. Simulations designed to test the effectiveness of multistate models for detecting SDS in our system indicated that error in SDS estimates was low and that both time-invariant and time-varying SDS could be detected with sample sizes of >250, average survival of >0.6, and average probability of capture of >0.6, except for cases of very strong SDS. In the field (N ??? 750, survival 0.6-0.8 among sampling intervals, probability of capture 0.6-0.8 among sampling occasions), about one-third of the sampling intervals showed evidence of SDS, with poorer survival of larger fish during the age-2+ autumn and quadratic survival (opposite direction between cohorts) during age-1+ spring. The varying magnitude and shape of SDS among sampling intervals suggest a potential mechanism for the maintenance of the very wide observed size distributions. Estimating SDS using multistate CMR models appears complementary to established approaches, can provide estimates with low error, and can be used to detect intermittent SDS. ?? 2008 NRC Canada.

A comparison of the test-negative and the traditional case-control study designs for estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness under nonrandom vaccination.

PubMed

Shi, Meng; An, Qian; Ainslie, Kylie E C; Haber, Michael; Orenstein, Walter A

2017-12-08

As annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all U.S. persons aged 6 months or older, it is unethical to conduct randomized clinical trials to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Observational studies are being increasingly used to estimate VE. We developed a probability model for comparing the bias and the precision of VE estimates from two case-control designs: the traditional case-control (TCC) design and the test-negative (TN) design. In both study designs, acute respiratory illness (ARI) patients seeking medical care testing positive for influenza infection are considered cases. In the TN design, ARI patients seeking medical care who test negative serve as controls, while in the TCC design, controls are randomly selected individuals from the community who did not contract an ARI. Our model assigns each study participant a covariate corresponding to the person's health status. The probabilities of vaccination and of contracting influenza and non-influenza ARI depend on health status. Hence, our model allows non-random vaccination and confounding. In addition, the probability of seeking care for ARI may depend on vaccination and health status. We consider two outcomes of interest: symptomatic influenza (SI) and medically-attended influenza (MAI). If vaccination does not affect the probability of non-influenza ARI, then VE estimates from TN studies usually have smaller bias than estimates from TCC studies. We also found that if vaccinated influenza ARI patients are less likely to seek medical care than unvaccinated patients because the vaccine reduces symptoms' severity, then estimates of VE from both types of studies may be severely biased when the outcome of interest is SI. The bias is not present when the outcome of interest is MAI. The TN design produces valid estimates of VE if (a) vaccination does not affect the probabilities of non-influenza ARI and of seeking care against influenza ARI, and (b) the confounding effects resulting from non-random vaccination are similar for influenza and non-influenza ARI. Since the bias of VE estimates depends on the outcome against which the vaccine is supposed to protect, it is important to specify the outcome of interest when evaluating the bias.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Leibecki, H. F.; Bozek, J. M.

1980-01-01

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

Identifying sources of heterogeneity in capture probabilities: An example using the Great Tit Parus major

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.

1999-01-01

Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.

Discordant twins with the smaller baby appropriate for gestational age--unusual manifestation of superfoetation: a case report.

PubMed

Baijal, Noopur; Sahni, Mohit; Verma, Neeraj; Kumar, Amit; Parkhe, Nittin; Puliyel, Jacob M

2007-01-19

Documentation of superfoetation is extremely rare in humans., The younger foetus has invariably been small for gestational age (estimated from the date of the last menstrual bleed) in all the cases reported in the literature. We report a case where the younger twin was of appropriate size for gestation. The first of twins was of 32 weeks gestation and the baby was of appropriate size and development for the gestational age. The second twin was of 36 weeks gestation. Gestational age was estimated with the New Ballard score, x-ray of the lower limbs, dental age on x-ray, and ophthalmic examination. Bleeding on implantation of the first foetus probably helped demarcate the two pregnancies. Dental age and the New Ballard score can be used to diagnose superfoetation in discordant twins, when detailed first trimester ultra-sound data is not available.

Discordant twins with the smaller baby appropriate for gestational age – unusual manifestation of superfoetation: A case report

PubMed Central

Baijal, Noopur; Sahni, Mohit; Verma, Neeraj; Kumar, Amit; Parkhe, Nittin; Puliyel, Jacob M

2007-01-01

Background Documentation of superfoetation is extremely rare in humans., The younger foetus has invariably been small for gestational age (estimated from the date of the last menstrual bleed) in all the cases reported in the literature. We report a case where the younger twin was of appropriate size for gestation. Case Presentation The first of twins was of 32 weeks gestation and the baby was of appropriate size and development for the gestational age. The second twin was of 36 weeks gestation. Gestational age was estimated with the New Ballard score, x-ray of the lower limbs, dental age on x-ray, and ophthalmic examination. Conclusion Bleeding on implantation of the first foetus probably helped demarcate the two pregnancies. Dental age and the New Ballard score can be used to diagnose superfoetation in discordant twins, when detailed first trimester ultra-sound data is not available. PMID:17239246

Projections of the number of Australians with disability aged 65 and over eligible for the National Disability Insurance Scheme: 2017-2026.

PubMed

Biddle, Nicholas; Crawford, Heather

2017-12-01

To develop projections of the size of the Australian population aged 65 years and over eligible for disability support through the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) for the decade following its introduction, to support planning and costing of the scheme. We estimate disability and mortality transition probabilities and develop projections of the NDIS-eligible, ageing population from 2017 to 2026. An estimated 8000 men and 10 200 women aged 65 years and over will be eligible for support through the NDIS in 2017 (the scheme's first full year), increasing to 48 800 men and 56 900 women in 2026. Growth in the NDIS-eligible, ageing population has implications for relative budget allocations between the NDIS and the aged-care system, and projections of the size of this population are useful for calculating the overall cost of the NDIS. © 2017 AJA Inc.

An analysis of human skeletal remains with cerebral palsy: associated skeletal age delay and dental pathologies.

PubMed

Megyesi, Mary S; Tubbs, Ryan M; Sauer, Norman J

2009-03-01

In 2002 the authors were asked to examine the skeletal remains of an individual with a known history of severe cerebral palsy (CP) who was 21-23 years old at death. Skeletal age estimates of 11-15 years and dental age estimates of c. 16 years are younger than the known age of the decedent. Skeletal analysis also identified dental pathologies such as chronic tooth grinding and substantial calculus deposits. Scarce literature exists on forensic human remains cases with CP, and this study contrasts the age discrepancy and other features of this case with typical clinical characteristics of CP. A review of the CP literature suggests that delayed skeletal maturation and dental pathologies such as those observed in this case are indicative of complications related to CP. This article may alert future investigators to some of the osteological signs of CP and the probability that age indicators may be misleading.

An operational system of fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2017-04-01

A methodology is presented to assess fire danger based on the probability of exceedance of prescribed thresholds of daily released energy. The procedure is developed and tested over Mediterranean Europe, defined by latitude circles of 35 and 45°N and meridians of 10°W and 27.5°E, for the period 2010-2016. The procedure involves estimating the so-called static and daily probabilities of exceedance. For a given point, the static probability is estimated by the ratio of the number of daily fire occurrences releasing energy above a given threshold to the total number of occurrences inside a cell centred at the point. The daily probability of exceedance which takes into account meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is in turn estimated based on a Generalized Pareto distribution with static probability and FWI as covariates of the scale parameter. The rationale of the procedure is that small fires, assessed by the static probability, have a weak dependence on weather, whereas the larger fires strongly depend on concurrent meteorological conditions. It is shown that observed frequencies of exceedance over the study area for the period 2010-2016 match with the estimated values of probability based on the developed models for static and daily probabilities of exceedance. Some (small) variability is however found between different years suggesting that refinements can be made in future works by using a larger sample to further increase the robustness of the method. The developed methodology presents the advantage of evaluating fire danger with the same criteria for all the study area, making it a good parameter to harmonize fire danger forecasts and forest management studies. Research was performed within the framework of EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF). Part of methods developed and results obtained are on the basis of the platform supported by The Navigator Company that is currently providing information about fire meteorological danger for Portugal for a wide range of users.

The Influence of Optical Coherence Tomography Measurements of Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer on Decision-Making in Glaucoma Diagnosis.

PubMed

Fu, Lanxing; Aspinall, Peter; Bennett, Gary; Magidson, Jay; Tatham, Andrew J

2017-04-01

To quantify the influence of spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) on decision-making in patients with suspected glaucoma. A prospective cross-sectional study involving 40 eyes of 20 patients referred by community optometrists due to suspected glaucoma. All patients had disc photographs and standard automated perimetry (SAP), and results were presented to 13 ophthalmologists who estimated pre-test probability of glaucoma (0-100%) for a total of 520 observations. Ophthalmologists were then permitted to modify probabilities of disease based on SDOCT retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) measurements (post-test probability). The effect of information from SDOCT on decision to treat, monitor, or discharge was assessed. Agreement among graders was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and correlated component regression (CCR) was used to identify variables influencing management decisions. Patients had an average age of 69.0 ± 10.1 years, SAP mean deviation of 2.71 ± 3.13 dB, and RNFL thickness of 86.2 ± 16.7 μm. Average pre-test probability of glaucoma was 37.0 ± 33.6% with SDOCT resulting in a 13.3 ± 18.1% change in estimated probability. Incorporating information from SDOCT improved agreement regarding probability of glaucoma (ICC = 0.50 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.64) without SDOCT versus 0.64 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.76) with SDOCT). SDOCT led to a change from decision to "treat or monitor" to "discharge" in 22 of 520 cases and a change from "discharge" to "treat or monitor" in 11 of 520 cases. Pre-test probability and RNFL thickness were predictors of post-test probability of glaucoma, contributing 69 and 31% of the variance in post-test probability, respectively. Information from SDOCT altered estimated probability of glaucoma and improved agreement among clinicians in those suspected of having the disease.

Robotic radical prostatectomy for elderly patients: probability of achieving continence and potency 1 year after surgery.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Desai, Vikas; Razmaria, Aria; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shalhav, Arieh L

2010-05-01

We assessed the probability of achieving continence and potency after robotic radical prostatectomy in elderly patients. The cohort included 1,436 robotic radical prostatectomy cases performed at our institution between 2003 and 2008. Continence (pad-free) and potency (erection sufficient for intercourse) at baseline and 1 year after surgery were evaluated by the UCLA-PCI questionnaire. Point estimates of the predicted probabilities of continence and potency for age 65, 70 and 75 years were calculated from multivariate logistic regression models adjusting for age, nerve sparing status, baseline International Prostate Symptom Score and baseline Sexual Health Inventory for Men score. Patients who were impotent before surgery or those who received hormones or radiation within 1 year after surgery were censored. Mean patient age was 60 years (range 38 to 85) with 25% older than 65 years and 77 (5%) 70 years old or older. Age (OR 0.97, p = 0.002), baseline I-PSS (OR 0.98, p = 0.02) and Sexual Health Inventory for Men scores (OR 1.02, p = 0.005) were independently associated with being pad-free. Age (OR 0.92, p <0.0001), baseline Sexual Health Inventory for Men score (OR 1.1, p <0.0001) and bilateral nerve sparing (OR 2.92, p <0.0001) were independently associated with achieving potency. Predicted probabilities (95% CI) of postoperative 1-year continence at age 65, 70 and 75 years were 0.66 (0.63, 0.69), 0.63 (0.57, 0.68) and 0.59 (0.52, 0.66), respectively. The corresponding probabilities of postoperative 1-year potency after bilateral nerve sparing were 0.66 (0.62, 0.71), 0.56 (0.49, 0.64) and 0.46 (0.36, 0.56). In our experience there is an acceptable probability of achieving continence and potency after robotic radical prostatectomy in selected elderly patients. 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calibration between the Estimated Probability of the Risk Assessment Chart of Japan Atherosclerosis Society and Actual Mortality Using External Population: Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN).

PubMed

Nakai, Michikazu; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Higashiyama, Aya; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Iso, Hiroyasu; Miura, Katsuyuki; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Okamura, Tomonori

2016-01-01

In Japan Atherosclerosis Society guidelines for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2012 (JAS2012), NIPPON DATA80 risk assessment chart (ND80RAC) was adopted to estimate the 10-year probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality. However, there was no comparison between the estimated mortality calculated by ND80RAC and actual mortality in external populations. Accordingly, we used the large pooled database of cohorts in Japan, EPOCH-JAPAN, as an external population. The participants of EPOCH-JAPAN without a history of cardiovascular disease (15,091 men and 18,589 women aged 40-74 years) were analyzed based on sex. The probability of a 10-year risk of CAD/stroke mortality was estimated by ND80RAC. The participants were divided into both decile of their estimated mortality and three categories according to JAS2012. The calibration between the mean estimated mortality and the actual mortality was performed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow (H-L) test. In both sexes, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality, particularly in higher deciles of estimated mortality, and the estimated stroke mortality was almost concordant with the actual mortality in low/moderate deciles of estimated mortality. As for the categories according to JAS2012, the estimated CAD mortality was higher than the actual mortality in both sexes; actual mortality in Category III was lower than that in Category II in women. However, it increased in the ascending order of category when we excluded the presence of diabetes from Category III. The estimated CAD mortality by ND80RAC tended to be higher than the actual mortality in the population in which the baseline survey was more recently performed.

Errors in the estimation of the variance: implications for multiple-probability fluctuation analysis.

PubMed

Saviane, Chiara; Silver, R Angus

2006-06-15

Synapses play a crucial role in information processing in the brain. Amplitude fluctuations of synaptic responses can be used to extract information about the mechanisms underlying synaptic transmission and its modulation. In particular, multiple-probability fluctuation analysis can be used to estimate the number of functional release sites, the mean probability of release and the amplitude of the mean quantal response from fits of the relationship between the variance and mean amplitude of postsynaptic responses, recorded at different probabilities. To determine these quantal parameters, calculate their uncertainties and the goodness-of-fit of the model, it is important to weight the contribution of each data point in the fitting procedure. We therefore investigated the errors associated with measuring the variance by determining the best estimators of the variance of the variance and have used simulations of synaptic transmission to test their accuracy and reliability under different experimental conditions. For central synapses, which generally have a low number of release sites, the amplitude distribution of synaptic responses is not normal, thus the use of a theoretical variance of the variance based on the normal assumption is not a good approximation. However, appropriate estimators can be derived for the population and for limited sample sizes using a more general expression that involves higher moments and introducing unbiased estimators based on the h-statistics. Our results are likely to be relevant for various applications of fluctuation analysis when few channels or release sites are present.

A Methodology for Determining Statistical Performance Compliance for Airborne Doppler Radar with Forward-Looking Turbulence Detection Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, Roland L.; Buck, Bill K.

2009-01-01

The objective of the research developed and presented in this document was to statistically assess turbulence hazard detection performance employing airborne pulse Doppler radar systems. The FAA certification methodology for forward looking airborne turbulence radars will require estimating the probabilities of missed and false hazard indications under operational conditions. Analytical approaches must be used due to the near impossibility of obtaining sufficient statistics experimentally. This report describes an end-to-end analytical technique for estimating these probabilities for Enhanced Turbulence (E-Turb) Radar systems under noise-limited conditions, for a variety of aircraft types, as defined in FAA TSO-C134. This technique provides for one means, but not the only means, by which an applicant can demonstrate compliance to the FAA directed ATDS Working Group performance requirements. Turbulence hazard algorithms were developed that derived predictive estimates of aircraft hazards from basic radar observables. These algorithms were designed to prevent false turbulence indications while accurately predicting areas of elevated turbulence risks to aircraft, passengers, and crew; and were successfully flight tested on a NASA B757-200 and a Delta Air Lines B737-800. Application of this defined methodology for calculating the probability of missed and false hazard indications taking into account the effect of the various algorithms used, is demonstrated for representative transport aircraft and radar performance characteristics.

Dental age assessment of young Iranian adults using third molars: A multivariate regression study.

PubMed

Bagherpour, Ali; Anbiaee, Najmeh; Partovi, Parnia; Golestani, Shayan; Afzalinasab, Shakiba

2012-10-01

In recent years, a noticeable increase in forensic age estimations of living individuals has been observed. Radiologic assessment of the mineralisation stage of third molars is of particular importance, with regard to the relevant age group. To attain a referral database and regression equations for dental age estimation of unaccompanied minors in an Iranian population was the goal of this study. Moreover, determination was made concerning the probability of an individual being over the age of 18 in case of full third molar(s) development. Using the scoring system of Gleiser and Hunt, modified by Köhler, an investigation of a cross-sectional sample of 1274 orthopantomograms of 885 females and 389 males aged between 15 and 22 years was carried out. Using kappa statistics, intra-observer reliability was tested. With Spearman correlation coefficient, correlation between the scores of all four wisdom teeth, was evaluated. We also carried out the Wilcoxon signed-rank test on asymmetry and calculated the regression formulae. A strong intra-observer agreement was displayed by the kappa value. No significant difference (p-value for upper and lower jaws were 0.07 and 0.59, respectively) was discovered by Wilcoxon signed-rank test for left and right asymmetry. The developmental stage of upper right and upper left third molars yielded the greatest correlation coefficient. The probability of an individual being over the age of 18 is 95.6% for males and 100.0% for females in case four fully developed third molars are present. Taking into consideration gender, location and number of wisdom teeth, regression formulae were arrived at. Use of population-specific standards is recommended as a means of improving the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molars mineralisation. To obtain more exact regression formulae, wider age range studies are recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Precipitation intensity probability distribution modelling for hydrological and construction design purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshinchanov, Georgy; Dimitrov, Dobri

2008-11-01

The characteristics of rainfall intensity are important for many purposes, including design of sewage and drainage systems, tuning flood warning procedures, etc. Those estimates are usually statistical estimates of the intensity of precipitation realized for certain period of time (e.g. 5, 10 min., etc) with different return period (e.g. 20, 100 years, etc). The traditional approach in evaluating the mentioned precipitation intensities is to process the pluviometer's records and fit probability distribution to samples of intensities valid for certain locations ore regions. Those estimates further become part of the state regulations to be used for various economic activities. Two problems occur using the mentioned approach: 1. Due to various factors the climate conditions are changed and the precipitation intensity estimates need regular update; 2. As far as the extremes of the probability distribution are of particular importance for the practice, the methodology of the distribution fitting needs specific attention to those parts of the distribution. The aim of this paper is to make review of the existing methodologies for processing the intensive rainfalls and to refresh some of the statistical estimates for the studied areas. The methodologies used in Bulgaria for analyzing the intensive rainfalls and produce relevant statistical estimates: The method of the maximum intensity, used in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to process and decode the pluviometer's records, followed by distribution fitting for each precipitation duration period; As the above, but with separate modeling of probability distribution for the middle and high probability quantiles. Method is similar to the first one, but with a threshold of 0,36 mm/min of intensity; Another method proposed by the Russian hydrologist G. A. Aleksiev for regionalization of estimates over some territory, improved and adapted by S. Gerasimov for Bulgaria; Next method is considering only the intensive rainfalls (if any) during the day with the maximal annual daily precipitation total for a given year; Conclusions are drown on the relevance and adequacy of the applied methods.

Utilization of infertility services: how much does money matter?

PubMed

Farley Ordovensky Staniec, J; Webb, Natalie J

2007-06-01

To estimate the effects of financial access and other individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment and the choice of treatment type. The 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We use a binomial logit model to estimate the effects of financial access and individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment. We then use a multinomial logit model to estimate the differential effects of these variables across treatment types. This study analyzes the subset of 1,210 women who meet the definition of infertile or subfecund from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We find that income, insurance coverage, age, and parity (number of previous births) all significantly affect the probability of seeking infertility treatment; however, the effect of these variables on choice of treatment type varies significantly. Neither income nor insurance influences the probability of seeking advice, a relatively low cost, low yield treatment. At the other end of the spectrum, the choice to pursue assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs)-a much more expensive but potentially more productive option-is highly influenced by income, but merely having private insurance has no significant effect. In the middle of the spectrum are treatment options such as testing, surgery, and medications, for which "financial access" increases their probability of selection. Our results illustrate that for the sample of infertile of subfecund women of childbearing age studied, and considering their options, financial access to infertility treatment does matter.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape

PubMed Central

Reiner, Robert C.; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the ‘colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. PMID:26400195

On the number of infinite geodesics and ground states in disordered systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehr, Jan

1997-04-01

We study first-passage percolation models and their higher dimensional analogs—models of surfaces with random weights. We prove that under very general conditions the number of lines or, in the second case, hypersurfaces which locally minimize the sum of the random weights is with probability one equal to 0 or with probability one equal to +∞. As corollaries we show that in any dimension d≥2 the number of ground states of an Ising ferromagnet with random coupling constants equals (with probability one) 2 or +∞. Proofs employ simple large-deviation estimates and ergodic arguments.

Small violations of Bell inequalities for multipartite pure random states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drumond, Raphael C.; Duarte, Cristhiano; Oliveira, Roberto I.

2018-05-01

For any finite number of parts, measurements, and outcomes in a Bell scenario, we estimate the probability of random N-qudit pure states to substantially violate any Bell inequality with uniformly bounded coefficients. We prove that under some conditions on the local dimension, the probability to find any significant amount of violation goes to zero exponentially fast as the number of parts goes to infinity. In addition, we also prove that if the number of parts is at least 3, this probability also goes to zero as the local Hilbert space dimension goes to infinity.

A Method for Evaluating Tuning Functions of Single Neurons based on Mutual Information Maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brostek, Lukas; Eggert, Thomas; Ono, Seiji; Mustari, Michael J.; Büttner, Ulrich; Glasauer, Stefan

2011-03-01

We introduce a novel approach for evaluation of neuronal tuning functions, which can be expressed by the conditional probability of observing a spike given any combination of independent variables. This probability can be estimated out of experimentally available data. By maximizing the mutual information between the probability distribution of the spike occurrence and that of the variables, the dependence of the spike on the input variables is maximized as well. We used this method to analyze the dependence of neuronal activity in cortical area MSTd on signals related to movement of the eye and retinal image movement.

Leveraging Genomic Annotations and Pleiotropic Enrichment for Improved Replication Rates in Schizophrenia GWAS

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunpeng; Thompson, Wesley K.; Schork, Andrew J.; Holland, Dominic; Chen, Chi-Hua; Bettella, Francesco; Desikan, Rahul S.; Li, Wen; Witoelar, Aree; Zuber, Verena; Devor, Anna; Nöthen, Markus M.; Rietschel, Marcella; Chen, Qiang; Werge, Thomas; Cichon, Sven; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Djurovic, Srdjan; O’Donovan, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Andreassen, Ole A.; Dale, Anders M.

2016-01-01

Most of the genetic architecture of schizophrenia (SCZ) has not yet been identified. Here, we apply a novel statistical algorithm called Covariate-Modulated Mixture Modeling (CM3), which incorporates auxiliary information (heterozygosity, total linkage disequilibrium, genomic annotations, pleiotropy) for each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) to enable more accurate estimation of replication probabilities, conditional on the observed test statistic (“z-score”) of the SNP. We use a multiple logistic regression on z-scores to combine information from auxiliary information to derive a “relative enrichment score” for each SNP. For each stratum of these relative enrichment scores, we obtain nonparametric estimates of posterior expected test statistics and replication probabilities as a function of discovery z-scores, using a resampling-based approach that repeatedly and randomly partitions meta-analysis sub-studies into training and replication samples. We fit a scale mixture of two Gaussians model to each stratum, obtaining parameter estimates that minimize the sum of squared differences of the scale-mixture model with the stratified nonparametric estimates. We apply this approach to the recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of SCZ (n = 82,315), obtaining a good fit between the model-based and observed effect sizes and replication probabilities. We observed that SNPs with low enrichment scores replicate with a lower probability than SNPs with high enrichment scores even when both they are genome-wide significant (p < 5x10-8). There were 693 and 219 independent loci with model-based replication rates ≥80% and ≥90%, respectively. Compared to analyses not incorporating relative enrichment scores, CM3 increased out-of-sample yield for SNPs that replicate at a given rate. This demonstrates that replication probabilities can be more accurately estimated using prior enrichment information with CM3. PMID:26808560

[A modification of the Gompertz plot resulting from the age index by Ries and an approximation of the survivorship curve (author's transl)].

PubMed

Lohmann, W

1978-01-01

The shape of the survivorship curve can easily be interpreted on condition that the probability of death is proportional to an exponentially rising function of ageing. According to the formation of a sum for determining of the age index by Ries it was investigated to what extent the survivorship curve may be approximated by a sum of exponentials. It follows that the difference between the pure exponential function and a sum of exponentials by using possible values is lying within the random variation. Because the probability of death for different diseases is variable, the new statement is a better one.

[Adult mortality differentials in Argentina].

PubMed

Rofman, R

1994-06-01

Adult mortality differentials in Argentina are estimated and analyzed using data from the National Social Security Administration. The study of adult mortality has attracted little attention in developing countries because of the scarcity of reliable statistics and the greater importance assigned to demographic phenomena traditionally associated with development, such as infant mortality and fertility. A sample of 39,421 records of retired persons surviving as of June 30, 1988, was analyzed by age, sex, region of residence, relative amount of pension, and social security fund of membership prior to the consolidation of the system in 1967. The thirteen former funds were grouped into the five categories of government, commerce, industry, self-employed, and other, which were assumed to be proxies for the activity sector in which the individual spent his active life. The sample is not representative of the Argentine population, since it excludes the lowest and highest socioeconomic strata and overrepresents men and urban residents. It is, however, believed to be adequate for explaining mortality differentials for most of the population covered by the social security system. The study methodology was based on the technique of logistic analysis and on the use of regional model life tables developed by Coale and others. To evaluate the effect of the study variables on the probability of dying, a regression model of maximal verisimilitude was estimated. The model relates the logit of the probability of death between ages 65 and 95 to the available explanatory variables, including their possible interactions. Life tables were constructed by sex, region of residence, previous pension fund, and income. As a test of external consistency, a model including only age and sex as explanatory variables was constructed using the methodology. The results confirmed consistency between the estimated values and other published estimates. A significant conclusion of the study was that social security data are a satisfactory source for study of adult mortality, a finding of importance in cases where vital statistics systems are deficient. Mortality differentials by income level and activity sector were significant, representing up to 11.5 years in life expectancy at age 20 and 4.4 years at age 65. Mortality differentials by region were minor, probably due to the nature of the sample. The lowest observed mortality levels were in own-account workers, independent professionals, and small businessmen.

Estimating the force of measles virus infection from hospitalised cases in Lusaka, Zambia.

PubMed

Scott, Susana; Mossong, Joel; Moss, William J; Cutts, Felicity T; Kasolo, Francis; Sinkala, Moses; Cousens, Simon

2004-12-21

Estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection) are essential for modelling the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and can be a useful tool in evaluating mass vaccination strategies. Few estimates exist of the force of infection of measles virus in sub-Saharan Africa. A mathematical model was applied to age-specific recorded hospital admissions between September 1996 and September 1999 to estimate the force of measles virus infection in Lusaka, Zambia. The average force of infection was estimated to be 20% per year (95% confidence intervals (CI) 16.5, 23.5) which was insensitive to varying assumptions about vaccine coverage. The force of infection varied from year to year (P < 0.001) reflecting the cyclic pattern of measles incidence. The estimated probability of a case being hospitalised decreased with age, consistent with less severe disease in older children. Estimates of the force of infection using routinely available data were consistent with those based upon serological surveys in other sub-Saharan African countries.

The effects of site, supplemental food, and age on survivorship of Carolina Chickadees and implications for dispersal through- riparian corridors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Grubb, T.G.

2000-01-01

Few studies have examined survivorship of animals in forest fragments differing in size, and none has used appropriate mark-recapture analysis techniques taking into account probability of recapture. Using Program MARK, a flexible mark-recapture software package, we estimated annual survival rates of Carolina Chickadees over a 5-yr period in a fragmented landscape in Ohio. The probability of survival was related to site (riparian woodland or woodlot area) and increased with the presence of supplemental food. While there was little evidence for an age difference in apparent survival in woodlots, young birds appeared to survive less well in forested river corridors. This last result was quite likely due, at least in part, to age-specific dispersal, suggesting that river corridors function as important dispersal routes for young birds.

Inferring Complex Aquifer Structure from the Combined Use of Hydraulic and Groundwater Age Data in Groundater Flow Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leray, S.; De Dreuzy, J.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Bour, O.

2011-12-01

While groundwater age data have been classically used to determine aquifer hydraulic properties such as recharge and/or porosity, we show here that they contain more valuable information on aquifer structure in complex hard rock contexts. Our numerical modeling study is based on the developed crystalline aquifer of Ploemeur (Brittany, France) characterized by two transmissive structures: the interface between an intruding granite and overlying micaschists dipping moderately to the North and a steeply dipping fault striking North 20. We explore the definition and evolution of the supplying volume to the pumping well of the Ploemeur medium under steady-state conditions. We first show that, with the help of general observations on the site, hydraulic data, such as piezometric levels or transmissivity derived from pumping tests, can be used to refine recharge spatial distribution and rate and bulk aquifer transmissivity. We then model the effect of aquifer porosity and thickness on environmental tracer concentrations. Porosity gives the range of the mean residence time, shifting the probability density function of residence times along the time axis whereas aquifer thickness affects the shape of the residence times distribution. It also modifies the mean concentration of CFCs taken as the convolution product of the atmospheric tracer concentration with the probability density function of residence times. Because porosity may be estimated by petrologic and gravimetric investigations, the thickness of the aquifer can be advantageously constrained by groundwater ages and then compared to other results from inversion of geophysical data. More generally, we advocate using groundwater age data at the aquifer discharge locations to constrain complex aquifer structures when recharge and porosity can be fixed by other means.

Rapid changes in ice core gas records - Part 1: On the accuracy of methane synchronisation of ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, P.

2010-08-01

Methane synchronisation is a concept to align ice core records during rapid climate changes of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events onto a common age scale. However, atmospheric gases are recorded in ice cores with a log-normal-shaped age distribution probability density function, whose exact shape depends mainly on the accumulation rate on the drilling site. This age distribution effectively shifts the mid-transition points of rapid changes in CH4 measured in situ in ice by about 58% of the width of the age distribution with respect to the atmospheric signal. A minimum dating uncertainty, or artefact, in the CH4 synchronisation is therefore embedded in the concept itself, which was not accounted for in previous error estimates. This synchronisation artefact between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores is for GRIP and Byrd less than 40 years, well within the dating uncertainty of CH4, and therefore does not calls the overall concept of the bipolar seesaw into question. However, if the EPICA Dome C ice core is aligned via CH4 to NGRIP this synchronisation artefact is in the most recent unified ice core age scale (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) for LGM climate conditions of the order of three centuries and might need consideration in future gas chronologies.

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How Has the Age-Related Process of Overweight or Obesity Development Changed over Time? Co-ordinated Analyses of Individual Participant Data from Five United Kingdom Birth Cohorts

PubMed Central

Johnson, William; Li, Leah; Kuh, Diana; Hardy, Rebecca

2015-01-01

Background There is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data in the United Kingdom birth cohort studies, we investigated shifts over the past nearly 70 years in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and development of overweight or obesity across childhood and adulthood. Methods and Findings The sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; ages 2–64 years), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; 7–50), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; 10–42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; 7–18), or 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; 3–11). Growth references showed a secular trend toward positive skewing of the BMI distribution at younger ages. During childhood, the 50th centiles for all studies lay in the middle of the International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, the age when a 50th centile first entered the overweight range (i.e., 25–29.9 kg/m2) decreased across NSHD, NCDS, and BCS from 41 to 33 to 30 years in males and 48 to 44 to 41 years in females. Trajectories of overweight or obesity showed that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities of overweight or obesity at younger ages. Overweight or obesity became more probable in NCDS than NSHD in early adulthood, but more probable in BCS than NCDS and NSHD in adolescence, for example. By age 10 years, the estimated probabilities of overweight or obesity in cohorts born after the 1980s were 2–3 times greater than those born before the 1980s (e.g., 0.229 [95% CI 0.219–0.240] in MCS males; 0.071 [0.065–0.078] in NSHD males). It was not possible to (1) model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity, because there were few obesity cases at young ages in the earliest-born cohorts, or (2) consider ethnic minority groups. The end date for analyses was August 2014. Conclusions Our results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the absence of effective intervention, overweight and obesity will have severe public health consequences in decades to come. PMID:25993005

Obesity, diabetes, and associated costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European Union.

PubMed

Legler, Juliette; Fletcher, Tony; Govarts, Eva; Porta, Miquel; Blumberg, Bruce; Heindel, Jerrold J; Trasande, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Obesity and diabetes are epidemic in the European Union (EU). Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is increasingly recognized as a contributor, independent of diet and physical activity. The objective was to estimate obesity, diabetes, and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the EU. An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from that applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized published cost estimates for childhood obesity, adult obesity, and adult diabetes. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was performed from the societal perspective. The panel identified a 40% to 69% probability of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 1555 cases of overweight at age 10 (sensitivity analysis: 1555-5463) in 2010 with associated costs of €24.6 million (sensitivity analysis: €24.6-86.4 million). A 20% to 39% probability was identified for dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 28 200 cases of adult diabetes (sensitivity analysis: 28 200-56 400) with associated costs of €835 million (sensitivity analysis: €835 million-16.6 billion). The panel also identified a 40% to 69% probability of phthalate exposure causing 53 900 cases of obesity in older women and €15.6 billion in associated costs. Phthalate exposure was also found to have a 40% to 69% probability of causing 20 500 new-onset cases of diabetes in older women with €607 million in associated costs. Prenatal bisphenol A exposure was identified to have a 20% to 69% probability of causing 42 400 cases of childhood obesity, with associated lifetime costs of €1.54 billion. EDC exposures in the EU contribute substantially to obesity and diabetes, with a moderate probability of >€18 billion costs per year. This is a conservative estimate; the results emphasize the need to control EDC exposures.

Obesity, Diabetes, and Associated Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

PubMed Central

Legler, Juliette; Fletcher, Tony; Govarts, Eva; Porta, Miquel; Blumberg, Bruce; Heindel, Jerrold J.

2015-01-01

Context: Obesity and diabetes are epidemic in the European Union (EU). Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is increasingly recognized as a contributor, independent of diet and physical activity. Objective: The objective was to estimate obesity, diabetes, and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the EU. Design: An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from that applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized published cost estimates for childhood obesity, adult obesity, and adult diabetes. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was performed from the societal perspective. Results: The panel identified a 40% to 69% probability of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 1555 cases of overweight at age 10 (sensitivity analysis: 1555–5463) in 2010 with associated costs of €24.6 million (sensitivity analysis: €24.6–86.4 million). A 20% to 39% probability was identified for dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 28 200 cases of adult diabetes (sensitivity analysis: 28 200–56 400) with associated costs of €835 million (sensitivity analysis: €835 million–16.6 billion). The panel also identified a 40% to 69% probability of phthalate exposure causing 53 900 cases of obesity in older women and €15.6 billion in associated costs. Phthalate exposure was also found to have a 40% to 69% probability of causing 20 500 new-onset cases of diabetes in older women with €607 million in associated costs. Prenatal bisphenol A exposure was identified to have a 20% to 69% probability of causing 42 400 cases of childhood obesity, with associated lifetime costs of €1.54 billion. Conclusions: EDC exposures in the EU contribute substantially to obesity and diabetes, with a moderate probability of >€18 billion costs per year. This is a conservative estimate; the results emphasize the need to control EDC exposures. PMID:25742518

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

Estimation of age at death from the pubic symphysis and the auricular surface of the ilium using a smoothing procedure.

PubMed

Martins, Rui; Oliveira, Paulo Eduardo; Schmitt, Aurore

2012-06-10

We discuss here the estimation of age at death from two indicators (pubic symphysis and the sacro-pelvic surface of the ilium) based on four different osteological series from Portugal, Great-Britain, South Africa or USA (European origin). These samples and the scoring system of the two indicators were used by Schmitt et al. (2002), applying the methodology proposed by Lucy et al. (1996). In the present work, the same data was processed using a modification of the empirical method proposed by Lucy et al. (2002). The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures and Jackknife methodology. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point and interval estimates may be made. This statistical approach reduces the bias of the estimates to less than 70% of what was obtained by the initial method. This reduction going up to 52% if knowledge of sex of the individual is available, and produces an age for all the individuals that improves age at death assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-02-01

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function.

PubMed

Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-02-01

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

Hyperostosis frontalis interna: criteria for sexing and aging a skeleton.

PubMed

May, Hila; Peled, Nathan; Dar, Gali; Cohen, Haim; Abbas, Janan; Medlej, Bahaa; Hershkovitz, Israel

2011-09-01

Estimation of sex and age in skeletons is essential in anthropological and forensic medicine investigations. The aim of the current study was to examine the potential of hyperostosis frontalis interna (HFI) as a criterion for determining sex and age in forensic cases. Macroscopic examination of the inner aspect of the frontal bone of 768 skulls (326 males and 442 females) aged 1 to 103, which had undergone a head computerized tomography scan, was carried out using the volume rendering technique. HFI was divided into two categories: minor and major. HFI is a sex- and age-dependent phenomena, with females manifesting significantly higher prevalence than males (p<0.01). In both females and males, prevalence of HFI increases as age increases (p<0.01). We present herein the probabilities of designating an unknown skull to a specific sex and age cohort according to the presence of HFI (standardized to age distribution in an Israeli population). Moreover, we present the probability of an individual belonging to a specific sex or age cohort according to age or sex (respectively) and severity of HFI. We suggest a valid, reliable, and easy method for sex and age identification of unknown skulls.

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Simulation of precipitation by weather pattern and frontal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert

1995-12-01

Daily rainfall from two sites in central and southern England was stratified according to the presence or absence of weather fronts and then cross-tabulated with the prevailing Lamb Weather Type (LWT). A semi-Markov chain model was developed for simulating daily sequences of LWTs from matrices of transition probabilities between weather types for the British Isles 1970-1990. Daily and annual rainfall distributions were then simulated from the prevailing LWTs using historic conditional probabilities for precipitation occurrence and frontal frequencies. When compared with a conventional rainfall generator the frontal model produced improved estimates of the overall size distribution of daily rainfall amounts and in particular the incidence of low-frequency high-magnitude totals. Further research is required to establish the contribution of individual frontal sub-classes to daily rainfall totals and of long-term fluctuations in frontal frequencies to conditional probabilities.

Mixing times towards demographic equilibrium in insect populations with temperature variable age structures.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2015-08-01

In this study, we use entropy related mixing rate modules to measure the effects of temperature on insect population stability and demographic breakdown. The uncertainty in the age of the mother of a randomly chosen newborn, and how it is moved after a finite act of time steps, is modeled using a stochastic transformation of the Leslie matrix. Age classes are represented as a cycle graph and its transitions towards the stable age distribution are brought forth as an exact Markov chain. The dynamics of divergence, from a non equilibrium state towards equilibrium, are evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. Moreover, Kullback-Leibler distance is applied as information-theoretic measure to estimate exact mixing times of age transitions probabilities towards equilibrium. Using empirically data, we show that on the initial conditions and simulated projection's trough time, that population entropy can effectively be applied to detect demographic variability towards equilibrium under different temperature conditions. Changes in entropy are correlated with the fluctuations of the insect population decay rates (i.e. demographic stability towards equilibrium). Moreover, shorter mixing times are directly linked to lower entropy rates and vice versa. This may be linked to the properties of the insect model system, which in contrast to warm blooded animals has the ability to greatly change its metabolic and demographic rates. Moreover, population entropy and the related distance measures that are applied, provide a means to measure these rates. The current results and model projections provide clear biological evidence why dynamic population entropy may be useful to measure population stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the precision of fin ray, otolith, and scale age determinations for brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stolarski, J.T.; Hartman, K.J.

2008-01-01

The ages of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are typically estimated using scales despite a lack of research documenting the effectiveness of this technique. The use of scales is often preferred because it is nonlethal and is believed to require less effort than alternative methods. To evaluate the relative effectiveness of different age estimation methodologies for brook trout, we measured the precision and processing times of scale, sagittal otolith, and pectoral fin ray age estimation techniques. Three independent readers, age bias plots, coefficients of variation (CV = 100 x SD/mean), and percent agreement (PA) were used to measure within-reader, among-structure bias and within-structure, among-reader precision. Bias was generally minimal; however, the age estimates derived from scales tended to be lower than those derived from otoliths within older (age > 2) cohorts. Otolith, fin ray, and scale age estimates were within 1 year of each other for 95% of the comparisons. The measures of precision for scales (CV = 6.59; PA = 82.30) and otoliths (CV = 7.45; PA = 81.48) suggest higher agreement between these structures than with fin rays (CV = 11.30; PA = 65.84). The mean per-sample processing times were lower for scale (13.88 min) and otolith techniques (12.23 min) than for fin ray techniques (22.68 min). The comparable processing times of scales and otoliths contradict popular belief and are probably a result of the high proportion of regenerated scales within samples and the ability to infer age from whole (as opposed to sectioned) otoliths. This research suggests that while scales produce age estimates rivaling those of otoliths for younger (age > 3) cohorts, they may be biased within older cohorts and therefore should be used with caution. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Geographic variation in survival and migratory tendency among North American Common Mergansers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.; Reed, J.A.; Flint, Paul L.

2005-01-01

Movement ecology and demographic parameters for the Common Merganser (Mergus merganser americanus) in North America are poorly known. We used band-recovery data from five locations across North America spanning the years 1938-1998 to examine migratory patterns and estimate survival rates. We examined competing time-invariant, age-graduated models with program MARK to study sources of variation in survival and reporting probability. We considered age, sex, geographic location, and the use of nasal saddles on hatching year birds at one location as possible sources of variation. Year-of-banding was included as a covariate in a post-hoc analysis. We found that migratory tendency, defined as the average distance between banding and recovery locations, varied geographically. Similarly, all models accounting for the majority of variation in recovery and survival probabilities included location of banding. Models that included age and sex received less support, but we lacked sufficient data to adequately assess these parameters. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival ranged from 0.21 in Michigan to 0.82 in Oklahoma. Heterogeneity in migration tendency and survival suggests that demographic patterns may vary across geographic scales, with implications for the population dynamics of this species.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

state, and use their best judgment on the probability that the nominal state will change as shown in Table 3. CMU/SEI-2011-TR-026 | 17 Each cell ...Figure 6. The row is the program change driver and the column is the effect. For example, if the cell is designated (Advo- cacy, Funding), then the... cell will contain the conditional probability that an Advocacy change will cause a Funding change. The diagonal will be blank. We then populate the

Survival curve estimation with dependent left truncated data using Cox's model.

PubMed

Mackenzie, Todd

2012-10-19

The Kaplan-Meier and closely related Lynden-Bell estimators are used to provide nonparametric estimation of the distribution of a left-truncated random variable. These estimators assume that the left-truncation variable is independent of the time-to-event. This paper proposes a semiparametric method for estimating the marginal distribution of the time-to-event that does not require independence. It models the conditional distribution of the time-to-event given the truncation variable using Cox's model for left truncated data, and uses inverse probability weighting. We report the results of simulations and illustrate the method using a survival study.

Age of Parental Concern, Diagnosis, and Service Initiation among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zablotsky, Benjamin; Colpe, Lisa J.; Pringle, Beverly A.; Kogan, Michael D.; Rice, Catherine; Blumberg, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) require substantial support to address the core symptoms of ASD and co-occurring behavioral/developmental conditions. This study explores the early diagnostic experiences of school-aged children with ASD using survey data from a large probability-based national sample. Multivariate linear regressions…

A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, B.T.; White, Gary C.; Burnham, K.P.

2006-01-01

This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

Indexing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons in an impoundment of the lower Columbia River from highly skewed trawling data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, T.D.; Miller, Allen I.; Parsley, M.J.

1999-01-01

The development of recruitment monitoring programs for age-0 white sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus is complicated by the statistical properties of catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data. We found that age-0 CPUE distributions from bottom trawl surveys violated assumptions of statistical procedures based on normal probability theory. Further, no single data transformation uniformly satisfied these assumptions because CPUE distribution properties varied with the sample mean (??(CPUE)). Given these analytic problems, we propose that an additional index of age-0 white sturgeon relative abundance, the proportion of positive tows (Ep), be used to estimate sample sizes before conducting age-0 recruitment surveys and to evaluate statistical hypothesis tests comparing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons among years. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that Ep was consistently more precise than ??(CPUE), and because Ep is binomially rather than normally distributed, surveys can be planned and analyzed without violating the assumptions of procedures based on normal probability theory. However, we show that Ep may underestimate changes in relative abundance at high levels and confound our ability to quantify responses to management actions if relative abundance is consistently high. If data suggest that most samples will contain age-0 white sturgeons, estimators of relative abundance other than Ep should be considered. Because Ep may also obscure correlations to climatic and hydrologic variables if high abundance levels are present in time series data, we recommend ??(CPUE) be used to describe relations to environmental variables. The use of both Ep and ??(CPUE) will facilitate the evaluation of hypothesis tests comparing relative abundance levels and correlations to variables affecting age-0 recruitment. Estimated sample sizes for surveys should therefore be based on detecting predetermined differences in Ep, but data necessary to calculate ??(CPUE) should also be collected.

Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

2009-01-01

We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

Relationship between patient age and duration of physician visit in ambulatory setting: does one size fit all?

PubMed

Lo, Agnes; Ryder, Kathryn; Shorr, Ronald I

2005-07-01

To determine whether patient age, the presence of comorbid illness, and the number of prescribed medications influence the duration of a physician visit in an ambulatory care setting. A cross-sectional study of ambulatory care visits made by adults aged 45 and older to primary care physicians. A probability sample of outpatient follow-up visits in the United States using the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) 2002 database. Of 28,738 physician visits in the 2002 NAMCS data set, there were 3,819 visits by adults aged 45 and older included in this study for analysis. The primary endpoint was the time that a physician spent with a patient at each visit. Covariates included for analyses were patient characteristics, physician characteristics, visit characteristics, and source of payment. Visit characteristics, including the number of diagnoses and the number of prescribed medications, the major diagnoses, and the therapeutic class of prescribed medications, were compared for different age groups (45-64, 65-74, and > or =75) to determine the complexity of the patient's medical conditions. Endpoint estimates were computed by age group and were also estimated based on study covariates using univariate and multivariate linear regression. The mean time+/-standard deviation spent with a physician was 17.9+/-8.5 minutes. There were no differences in the duration of visits between the age groups before or after adjustment for patient covariates. Patients aged 75 and older had more comorbid illness and were prescribed more medications than patients aged 45 to 64 and 65 to 74 (P<.001). Patients aged 75 and older were also prescribed more medications that require specific monitoring and counseling (warfarin, digoxin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, diuretics, and levothyroxine) than were patients in other age groups (P<.001). Hypertension, coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, and transient ischemic attack were more common in patients aged 75 and older than in other age groups (P<.001). Despite these differences, there were no differences in unadjusted or adjusted duration of physician visit between the age groups. Although patients aged 75 and older had more medical conditions and were at higher risk for drug-related problems than younger patients, the duration of physician visits was similar across the age groups. These findings suggest that elderly patients may require a multidisciplinary approach to optimize patient care in the ambulatory setting.

Log Pearson type 3 quantile estimators with regional skew information and low outlier adjustments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffis, V.W.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, T.A.

2004-01-01

The recently developed expected moments algorithm (EMA) [Cohn et al., 1997] does as well as maximum likelihood estimations at estimating log‐Pearson type 3 (LP3) flood quantiles using systematic and historical flood information. Needed extensions include use of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to be consistent with Bulletin 17B. Another issue addressed by Bulletin 17B is the treatment of low outliers. A Monte Carlo study compares the performance of Bulletin 17B using the entire sample with and without regional skew with estimators that use regional skew and censor low outliers, including an extended EMA estimator, the conditional probability adjustment (CPA) from Bulletin 17B, and an estimator that uses probability plot regression (PPR) to compute substitute values for low outliers. Estimators that neglect regional skew information do much worse than estimators that use an informative regional skewness estimator. For LP3 data the low outlier rejection procedure generally results in no loss of overall accuracy, and the differences between the MSEs of the estimators that used an informative regional skew are generally modest in the skewness range of real interest. Samples contaminated to model actual flood data demonstrate that estimators which give special treatment to low outliers significantly outperform estimators that make no such adjustment.

Log Pearson type 3 quantile estimators with regional skew information and low outlier adjustments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffis, V. W.; Stedinger, J. R.; Cohn, T. A.

2004-07-01

The recently developed expected moments algorithm (EMA) [, 1997] does as well as maximum likelihood estimations at estimating log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) flood quantiles using systematic and historical flood information. Needed extensions include use of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to be consistent with Bulletin 17B. Another issue addressed by Bulletin 17B is the treatment of low outliers. A Monte Carlo study compares the performance of Bulletin 17B using the entire sample with and without regional skew with estimators that use regional skew and censor low outliers, including an extended EMA estimator, the conditional probability adjustment (CPA) from Bulletin 17B, and an estimator that uses probability plot regression (PPR) to compute substitute values for low outliers. Estimators that neglect regional skew information do much worse than estimators that use an informative regional skewness estimator. For LP3 data the low outlier rejection procedure generally results in no loss of overall accuracy, and the differences between the MSEs of the estimators that used an informative regional skew are generally modest in the skewness range of real interest. Samples contaminated to model actual flood data demonstrate that estimators which give special treatment to low outliers significantly outperform estimators that make no such adjustment.

Estimation of death rates in US states with small subpopulations.

PubMed

Voulgaraki, Anastasia; Wei, Rong; Kedem, Benjamin

2015-05-20

In US states with small subpopulations, the observed mortality rates are often zero, particularly among young ages. Because in life tables, death rates are reported mostly on a log scale, zero mortality rates are problematic. To overcome the observed zero death rates problem, appropriate probability models are used. Using these models, observed zero mortality rates are replaced by the corresponding expected values. This enables logarithmic transformations and, in some cases, the fitting of the eight-parameter Heligman-Pollard model to produce mortality estimates for ages 0-130 years, a procedure illustrated in terms of mortality data from several states. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Age at diagnosis may trump family history in driving BRCA testing in a population of breast cancer patients

PubMed Central

Vig, Hetal S.; McCarthy, Anne Marie; Liao, Kaijun; Demeter, Mirar Bristol; Fredericks, Tracey; Armstrong, Katrina

2013-01-01

Background Standard BRCA genetic testing criteria include young age of diagnosis, family history, and Jewish ancestry. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of these criteria on BRCA test utilization in breast cancer patients. Methods Breast cancer patients aged 18-64yrs living in Pennsylvania in 2007 completed a survey on family history of breast and ovarian cancer and BRCA testing (N=2213). Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds of BRCA testing by patient characteristics, and predicted probabilities of testing were calculated for several clinical scenarios. Results Young age at diagnosis (<50 yrs.) was strongly associated with BRCA testing, with women diagnosed before age 50 yrs. having nearly five times the odds of receiving BRCA testing compared to women diagnosed at age 50 or older (OR=4.81, 95% CI: 3.85-6.00, p<0.001). Despite a similar BRCA mutation prevalence estimate (8-10%), a young Jewish patient <50 yrs. with no family history had markedly higher predicted probability of testing (63%) compared with an older, non-Jewish breast cancer patient with more than 1 first degree relative (FDR) (43%). Conclusion Age at diagnosis, Jewish ancestry, and both maternal and paternal family history are strongly predictive of BRCA testing. However, among women diagnosed at age 50 or older, family history may be an underutilized criterion that may benefit from targeted intervention. Impact Robust methods specific to ascertaining detailed family history, such as through electronic medical records (EMR), are needed to accurately identify patients for BRCA testing. PMID:23917453

Age at diagnosis may trump family history in driving BRCA testing in a population of breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Vig, Hetal S; McCarthy, Anne Marie; Liao, Kaijun; Demeter, Mirar Bristol; Fredericks, Tracey; Armstrong, Katrina

2013-10-01

Standard BRCA genetic testing criteria include young age of diagnosis, family history, and Jewish ancestry. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of these criteria on BRCA test utilization in breast cancer patients. Breast cancer patients aged 18 to 64 years living in Pennsylvania in 2007 completed a survey on family history of breast and ovarian cancer and BRCA testing (N = 2,213). Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds of BRCA testing by patient characteristics, and predicted probabilities of testing were calculated for several clinical scenarios. Young age at diagnosis (<50 years) was strongly associated with BRCA testing, with women diagnosed before age 50 years having nearly five times the odds of receiving BRCA testing compared to women diagnosed at age 50 or older (OR = 4.81; 95% CI, 3.85-6.00; P < 0.001). Despite a similar BRCA mutation prevalence estimate (8-10%), a young Jewish patient <50 years with no family history had markedly higher predicted probability of testing (63%) compared with an older, non-Jewish breast cancer patient with more than one first-degree relative (43%). Age at diagnosis, Jewish ancestry, and both maternal and paternal family history are strongly predictive of BRCA testing. However, among women diagnosed at age 50 or older, family history may be an underused criterion that may benefit from targeted intervention. Robust methods specific to ascertaining detailed family history, such as through electronic medical records, are needed to accurately identify patients for BRCA testing.

A predictive model to estimate the pretest probability of metastasis in patients with osteosarcoma.

PubMed

Wang, Sisheng; Zheng, Shaoluan; Hu, Kongzu; Sun, Heyan; Zhang, Jinling; Rong, Genxiang; Gao, Jie; Ding, Nan; Gui, Binjie

2017-01-01

Osteosarcomas (OSs) represent a huge challenge to improve the overall survival, especially in metastatic patients. Increasing evidence indicates that both tumor-associated elements but also on host-associated elements are under a remarkable effect on the prognosis of cancer patients, especially systemic inflammatory response. By analyzing a series prognosis of factors, including age, gender, primary tumor size, tumor location, tumor grade, and histological classification, monocyte ratio, and NLR ratio, a clinical predictive model was established by using stepwise logistic regression involved circulating leukocyte to compute the estimated probabilities of metastases for OS patients. The clinical predictive model was described by the following equations: probability of developing metastases = ex/(1 + ex), x = -2.150 +  (1.680 × monocyte ratio) + (1.533 × NLR ratio), where is the base of the natural logarithm, the assignment to each of the 2 variables is 1 if the ratio >1 (otherwise 0). The calculated AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic curve as 0.793 revealed well accuracy of this model (95% CI, 0.740-0.845). The predicted probabilities that we generated with the cross-validation procedure had a similar AUC (0.743; 95% CI, 0.684-0.803). The present model could be used to improve the outcomes of the metastases by developing a predictive model considering circulating leukocyte influence to estimate the pretest probability of developing metastases in patients with OS.

Improving online risk assessment with equipment prognostics and health monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coble, Jamie B.; Liu, Xiaotong; Briere, Chris

The current approach to evaluating the risk of nuclear power plant (NPP) operation relies on static probabilities of component failure, which are based on industry experience with the existing fleet of nominally similar light water reactors (LWRs). As the nuclear industry looks to advanced reactor designs that feature non-light water coolants (e.g., liquid metal, high temperature gas, molten salt), this operating history is not available. Many advanced reactor designs use advanced components, such as electromagnetic pumps, that have not been used in the US commercial nuclear fleet. Given the lack of rich operating experience, we cannot accurately estimate the evolvingmore » probability of failure for basic components to populate the fault trees and event trees that typically comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models. Online equipment prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies can bridge this gap to estimate the failure probabilities for components under operation. The enhanced risk monitor (ERM) incorporates equipment condition assessment into the existing PRA and risk monitor framework to provide accurate and timely estimates of operational risk.« less

Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

Living Conditions, Low Socioeconomic Position, and Mortality in the Ibadan Study of Aging.

PubMed

Ojagbemi, Akin; Bello, Toyin; Luo, Zhehui; Gureje, Oye

2017-07-01

Very little is known about socioeconomic differentials in mortality among persons surviving to old age in sub-Saharan Africa. We report on the impact of low socioeconomic position (SEP) on mortality over a 5-year observation period among community-dwelling older adults living in southwestern Nigeria. Data are from a household multistage probability sample of 2,149 Yoruba Nigerians aged 65 years or older. We collected information on indices related to health and well-being at baseline (2003/2004). Socioeconomic positions were estimated using asset-based measures relevant to low income settings. Information on mortality was obtained by research supervisors in multiple waves (2007, 2008, and 2009). Associations between baseline covariates and mortality were explored using discrete time survival models and life tables. We recorded 357 deaths over 5 years, or an annual mortality rate of 4.7% (95% CI = 4.2-5.2). Being 80 years or older (HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.1-2.5) and belonging to the lowest SEP (HR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1-2.1) were the main predictors of mortality. The significant effect of lowest SEP on mortality risk over the study period was independent of age, gender, education, rural or urban residence, weight, physical activity level, and social engagement. In this sample of older persons living in an economically disadvantaged context, we found persistent socioeconomic differentials in mortality estimated, conservatively, over 5 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stochastic modelling of basal temperatures in divide regions of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 1.5 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Liefferinge, Brice; Pattyn, Frank; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Young, Duncan A.; Roberts, Jason L.

2017-04-01

The quest for oldest ice in Antarctica has recently been launched through an EU H2020 project (Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice) and aims at identifying suitable areas for a potential future drilling. Retrieving an ice core of such age is essential to understand the relation between orbital changes and atmospheric composition during the mid-Pliocene transition. However, sites for a potential undisturbed record of 1.5 million-year old ice in Antarctica are difficult to find and require slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be sufficiently thick but cold basal conditions should still prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. Therefore, ice-flow conditions and thermodynamic characteristics are crucial for identifying potential locations of undisturbed ice. Van Liefferinge and Pattyn (2013) identified suitable areas based on a pan-Antarctic simplified thermodynamic ice sheet model and demonstrated that uncertainty in geothermal conditions remain a major unknown. In order to refine these estimates, and provide uncertainties, we employ a full thermo-mechanically coupled higher-order ice sheet model (Pattyn, 2003; Pattyn et al., 2004). Initial conditions for the calculations are based on an inversion of basal slipperiness, based on observed surface topography (Pollard and DeConto, 2012; Pattyn, in prep.). Uncertainties in geothermal conditions are introduced using the convolution of two Gaussian probability density functions: (a) the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet geometry and testing ice thickness variability over the last 2 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) and (b) the surface temperature reconstruction over the same period (Snyder et al., 2016). The standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the whole Antarctic ice sheet are analyzed to observe likely probable melt conditions. Finally, we focus on model results in the divide area between Dome Concordia and Dome Fuji, and compare to newly acquired radar data in the region (OIA survey).

Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities.

PubMed

Porter, Keith; Ramer, Kyle

2012-01-01

Fault trees have long been used to estimate failure risk in earthquakes, especially for nuclear power plants (NPPs). One interesting application is that one can assess and manage the probability that two facilities - a primary and backup - would be simultaneously rendered inoperative in a single earthquake. Another is that one can calculate the probabilistic time required to restore a facility to functionality, and the probability that, during any given planning period, the facility would be rendered inoperative for any specified duration. A large new peer-reviewed library of component damageability and repair-time data for the first time enables fault trees to be used to calculate the seismic risk of operational failure and downtime for a wide variety of buildings other than NPPs. With the new library, seismic risk of both the failure probability and probabilistic downtime can be assessed and managed, considering the facility's unique combination of structural and non-structural components, their seismic installation conditions, and the other systems on which the facility relies. An example is offered of real computer data centres operated by a California utility. The fault trees were created and tested in collaboration with utility operators, and the failure probability and downtime results validated in several ways.

A lower limit on the age of the universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaboyer, B.; Demarque, P.; Kernan, P.J.

1996-02-16

A detailed numerical study was designed and conducted to estimate the absolute age and the uncertainty in age (with confidence limits) of the oldest globular clusters in our galaxy, and hence to put a robust lower bound on the age of the universe. Estimates of the uncertainty range and distribution in the input parameters of stellar evolution codes were used to produce 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of stellar isochrones, which were then used to derive ages for the 17 oldest globular clusters. A probability distribution for the mean age of these systems was derived by incorporating the observational uncertainties inmore » chrones. The dominant contribution to the width of the distribution (approximately {sup +}{sub -}5) magnitudes. Subdominant contributions came from the choice of the color table used to translate theoretical luminosities and temperatures to observed magnitudes and colors, as well as from theoretical uncertainties in heavy element abundances and mixing length. The one-sided 95 percent confidence limit lower bound for this distribution occurs at an age of 12.07 X 10{sup 9} years, and the median age for the distribution is 14.56 X 10{sup 9} years. These age limits, when compared with the Hubble age estimate, put powerful constraints on cosmology. 41 refs., 2 figs.« less

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, J; Fan, J; Hu, W

Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditionalmore » probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.« less

Evaluation of amino-acid racemization/epimerization dating using radiocarbon-dated fossil land snails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodfriend, Glenn A.

1987-08-01

The relation between age and amino-acid epimer ratios (alloisoleucine/isoleucine, A/I) of Holocene land snails was quantitatively evaluated through 14C and amino-acid analysis of 33 samples from fluvial and colluvial sediments and rodent middens in the Northern Negev Desert of Israel. A/I is strongly correlated with 14C ages in fluvial and rodent midden deposits (r = 0.95 and 0.94, respectively), permitting age estimates from A/I ratios with precisions of ±700 and ±660 yr. The correlation is weaker in colluvial deposits (r = 0.74), and age estimates from A/I ratios are correspondingly less precise (±1580 yr). This probably results from delayed burial, which exposes the shells to intense radiation on the desert surface. Because of the generally strong relation between age and A/I, amino-acid epimerization analysis of individual shells can be used to identify mixed-age deposits and to reconstruct species chronologies from mixed-age deposits.

How did the Elimination of the Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age affect Retirement Expectations?1

PubMed Central

Michaud, Pierre-Carl

2010-01-01

We look at the effect of the 2000 repeal of the earnings test above the normal retirement age on retirement expectations of workers in the Health and Retirement Study, aged 51 to 61 in 1992. For men, we find that those whose marginal wage rate increased when the earnings test was repealed, had the largest increase in the probability to work full-time past normal retirement age. We do not find significant evidence of effects of the repeal of the earnings test on the probability to work past age 62 or the expected claiming age. On the other hand, for those reaching the normal retirement age, deviations between the age at which Social Security benefits are actually claimed and the previously reported expected age are more negative in 2000 than in 1998. Since our calculations show that the tax introduced by the earnings test was small when accounting for actuarial benefit adjustments and differential mortality, our results suggest that although male workers form expectations in a way consistent with forward-looking behavior, they misperceive the complicated rules of the earnings test. Results for females suggest similar patterns but estimates are imprecise. PMID:21037938

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Shih-Jung

Dynamic strength of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) vessel to resist hypothetical accidents is analyzed by using the method of fracture mechanics. Vessel critical stresses are estimated by applying dynamic pressure pulses of a range of magnitudes and pulse-durations. The pulses versus time functions are assumed to be step functions. The probability of vessel fracture is then calculated by assuming a distribution of possible surface cracks of different crack depths. The probability distribution function for the crack depths is based on the form that is recommended by the Marshall report. The toughness of the vessel steel used in themore » analysis is based on the projected and embrittled value after 10 effective full power years from 1986. From the study made by Cheverton, Merkle and Nanstad, the weakest point on the vessel for fracture evaluation is known to be located within the region surrounding the tangential beam tube HB3. The increase in the probability of fracture is obtained as an extension of the result from that report for the regular operating condition to include conditions of higher dynamic pressures due to accident loadings. The increase in the probability of vessel fracture is plotted for a range of hoop stresses to indicate the vessel strength against hypothetical accident conditions.« less

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Prevalence of BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms in West Africans.

PubMed

Chokkalingam, A P; Yeboah, E D; Demarzo, A; Netto, G; Yu, K; Biritwum, R B; Tettey, Y; Adjei, A; Jadallah, S; Li, Y; Chu, L W; Chia, D; Niwa, S; Partin, A; Thompson, I M; Roehrborn, C; Hoover, R N; Hsing, A W

2012-06-01

BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are very common among older men in Western countries. However, the prevalence of these two conditions in the developing countries is less clear. We assessed the age-standardized prevalence of BPH and/or LUTS among West Africans in a probability sample of 950 men aged 50-74 in Accra, Ghana, with no evidence of biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer after screening with PSA and digital rectal examination (DRE). Information on LUTS was based on self-reports of the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). BPH was estimated using DRE, PSA levels and imputed prostate volume. The prevalence of DRE-detected enlarged prostate was 62.3%, while that of PSA≥1.5 ng ml(-1) (an estimate of prostate volume ≥ 30 cm(3)) was 35.3%. The prevalence of moderate-to-severe LUTS (IPSS≥8) was 19.9%. The prevalence of IPSS≥8 and an enlarged prostate on DRE was 13.3%. Although there is no universally agreed-upon definition of BPH/LUTS, making comparisons across populations difficult, BPH and/or LUTS appear to be quite common among older Ghanaian men. We found that after age standardization, the prevalence of DRE-detected enlarged prostate in Ghanaian men is higher than previously reported for American men, but the prevalence of LUTS was lower than previously reported for African Americans. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and identify the risk factors for BPH in both Africans and African Americans.

Longitudinal follow-up of adult survivors of Ewing sarcoma: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

PubMed

Marina, Neyssa M; Liu, Qi; Donaldson, Sarah S; Sklar, Charles A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Leisenring, Wendy M; Ginsberg, Jill P; Henderson, Tara O; Neglia, Joseph P; Stovall, Marilyn A; Yasui, Yutaka; Randall, R Lor; Geller, David S; Robison, Leslie L; Ness, Kirsten K

2017-07-01

Ewing sarcoma survivors (ESSs) are at increased risk for treatment-related complications. The incidence of treatment-related morbidity and late mortality with aging is unknown. This study reports survival probabilities, estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality and chronic conditions among ESSs in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study who were treated between 1970 and 1986. Piecewise exponential models were used to estimate relative rates (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for these outcomes. Chronic conditions were graded with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4.03). Among 404 5-year ESSs (median age at last follow-up, 34.8 years; range, 9.1-54.8 years), the 35-year survival rate was 70% (95% CI, 66%-74%). Late recurrence (cumulative incidence at 35 years, 15.1%) was the most common cause of death, and it was followed by treatment-related causes (11.2%). There were 53 patients with subsequent neoplasms (SNs; cumulative incidence at 35 years, 24.0%), and 38 were malignant (14.3% at 35 years). The standardized incidence ratios were 377.1 (95% CI, 172.1-715.9) for osteosarcoma, 28.9 (95% CI, 3.2-104.2) for acute myeloid leukemia, 14.9 (95% CI, 7.9-25.5) for breast cancer, and 13.1 (95% CI, 4.8-28.5) for thyroid cancer. Rates of chronic conditions were highest for musculoskeletal (RR, 18.1; 95% CI, 12.8-25.7) and cardiac complications (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.3). Thirty-five years after the diagnosis, the cumulative incidences of any chronic conditions and 2 or more chronic conditions were 84.6% (95% CI, 80.4%-88.8%) and 73.8% (95% CI, 67.8%-79.9%), respectively. With extended follow-up, ESSs' risk for late mortality and SNs does not plateau. Treatment-related chronic conditions develop years after therapy, and this supports the need for lifelong follow-up. Cancer 2017;123:2551-60. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Efficiency of Health Investment: Education or Intelligence?

PubMed

Bijwaard, Govert E; Van Kippersluis, Hans

2016-09-01

In this paper, we hypothesize that education is associated with a higher efficiency of health investment, yet that this efficiency advantage is solely driven by intelligence. We operationalize efficiency of health investment as the probability of dying conditional on a certain hospital diagnosis and estimate a multistate structural equation model with three states: (i) healthy, (ii) hospitalized, and (iii) death. We use data from a Dutch cohort born around 1940 that links intelligence tests at age 12 years to later-life hospitalization and mortality records. The results indicate that intelligent individuals have a clear survival advantage for most hospital diagnoses, while the remaining disparities across education groups are small and not statistically significant. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bioenergetics estimate of the effects of stocking density on hatchery production of smallmouth bass fingerlings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robel, G.L.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

Production of and consumption by hatchery-reared tingerling (age-0) smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu at various simulated stocking densities were estimated with a bioenergetics model. Fish growth rates and pond water temperatures during the 1996 growing season at two hatcheries in Oklahoma were used in the model. Fish growth and simulated consumption and production differed greatly between the two hatcheries, probably because of differences in pond fertilization and mortality rates. Our results suggest that appropriate stocking density depends largely on prey availability as affected by pond fertilization and on fingerling mortality rates. The bioenergetics model provided a useful tool for estimating production at various stocking density rates. However, verification of physiological parameters for age-0 fish of hatchery-reared species is needed.

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittner, A.; Urban, N.; Shakun, J. D.; Mahowald, N. M.; Clark, P. U.; Bartlein, P. J.; Mix, A. C.; Rosell-Melé, A.

2011-12-01

In 1959 IJ Good published the discussion "Kinds of Probability" in Science. Good identified (at least) five kinds. The need for (at least) a sixth kind of probability when quantifying uncertainty in the context of climate science is discussed. This discussion brings out the differences in weather-like forecasting tasks and climate-links tasks, with a focus on the effective use both of science and of modelling in support of decision making. Good also introduced the idea of a "Dynamic probability" a probability one expects to change without any additional empirical evidence; the probabilities assigned by a chess playing program when it is only half thorough its analysis being an example. This case is contrasted with the case of "Mature probabilities" where a forecast algorithm (or model) has converged on its asymptotic probabilities and the question hinges in whether or not those probabilities are expected to change significantly before the event in question occurs, even in the absence of new empirical evidence. If so, then how might one report and deploy such immature probabilities in scientific-support of decision-making rationally? Mature Probability is suggested as a useful sixth kind, although Good would doubtlessly argue that we can get by with just one, effective communication with decision makers may be enhanced by speaking as if the others existed. This again highlights the distinction between weather-like contexts and climate-like contexts. In the former context one has access to a relevant climatology (a relevant, arguably informative distribution prior to any model simulations), in the latter context that information is not available although one can fall back on the scientific basis upon which the model itself rests, and estimate the probability that the model output is in fact misinformative. This subjective "probability of a big surprise" is one way to communicate the probability of model-based information holding in practice, the probability that the information the model-based probability is conditioned on holds. It is argued that no model-based climate-like probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate of its own irrelevance, and that the clear identification of model-based probability forecasts as mature or immature, are critical elements for maintaining the credibility of science-based decision support, and can shape uncertainty quantification more widely.

The relationship between violence in Northern Mexico and potentially avoidable hospitalizations in the USA-Mexico border region.

PubMed

Geissler, Kimberley; Stearns, Sally C; Becker, Charles; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Holmes, George M

2016-03-01

Substantial proportions of US residents in the USA-Mexico border region cross into Mexico for health care; increases in violence in northern Mexico may have affected this access. We quantified associations between violence in Mexico and decreases in access to care for border county residents. We also examined associations between border county residence and access. We used hospital inpatient data for Arizona, California and Texas (2005-10) to estimate associations between homicide rates and the probability of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions. Hospitalizations for ACS conditions were compared with homicide rates in Mexican municipalities matched by patient residence. A 1 SD increase in the homicide rate of the nearest Mexican municipality was associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition for border county patients. Residence in a border county was associated with a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Increased homicide rates in Mexico were associated with increased hospitalizations for ACS conditions in the USA, although residence in a border county was associated with decreased probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Expanding access in the border region may mitigate these effects by providing alternative sources of care. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating the prevalence of female genital mutilation in Portugal.

PubMed

Teixeira, A L; Lisboa, M

2016-10-01

Due to globalized migratory processes, female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) has spread to other countries, including countries in Europe, where, with a few exceptions, it remains a concealed problem. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first national extensive study to estimate the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal. Prevalence estimation. Using extrapolation of country-of-origin prevalence data and the 2011 Census data, this study estimated: the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and among all women aged ≥15 years; and the number of girls aged <15 years living in Portugal who have undergone or will probably undergo FGM/C. It is estimated that 6576 women aged ≥15 years living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, with cases distributed unevenly throughout the national territory. In addition, it is estimated that 1830 girls aged <15 years living in Portugal have undergone or are likely to undergo FGM/C. This study estimated that more than 6000 women living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, and many girls remain at risk. These two groups need different types of interventions. Awareness of the number and geographical dispersion of cases of FGM/C will enable more informed and targeted definition of public health policies for protection of females who have undergone or are at risk of undergoing FGM/C. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

Chronic disease and labour force participation among older Australians.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Passey, Megan E; Earnest, Arul; Fletcher, Susan L

2008-10-20

To examine the association between long-term health conditions and being out of the labour force among older Australians. Retrospective analysis of cross-sectional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2003 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers for people aged 45-64 years. Rates of premature retirement associated with ill health; odds ratios of being out of the labour force associated with each long-term health condition and number of conditions; weighted population estimates; estimates of gross domestic product lost as a result. 9198 people surveyed were aged 45-64 years, 3010 of whom were not in the labour force. Of these, 1373 (45.6%) had retired because of a chronic health condition, most commonly a back problem (10.4%), or arthritis and related disorders (8.6%). When adjusted for age and sex, all conditions studied except diseases of the ear and mastoid process, other endocrine/nutritional and metabolic disorders, noise-induced deafness or hearing loss, and high cholesterol were significantly associated with being out of the labour force. Extrapolating from these results, an estimated 663 235 older Australians were not working because of ill health, reducing Australia's gross domestic product by around $14.7 billion per annum. Prevention of long-term health conditions may help older Australians remain in the labour force longer, thereby increasing revenue to fund health care for the ageing population.

A new estimator of the discovery probability.

PubMed

Favaro, Stefano; Lijoi, Antonio; Prünster, Igor

2012-12-01

Species sampling problems have a long history in ecological and biological studies and a number of issues, including the evaluation of species richness, the design of sampling experiments, and the estimation of rare species variety, are to be addressed. Such inferential problems have recently emerged also in genomic applications, however, exhibiting some peculiar features that make them more challenging: specifically, one has to deal with very large populations (genomic libraries) containing a huge number of distinct species (genes) and only a small portion of the library has been sampled (sequenced). These aspects motivate the Bayesian nonparametric approach we undertake, since it allows to achieve the degree of flexibility typically needed in this framework. Based on an observed sample of size n, focus will be on prediction of a key aspect of the outcome from an additional sample of size m, namely, the so-called discovery probability. In particular, conditionally on an observed basic sample of size n, we derive a novel estimator of the probability of detecting, at the (n+m+1)th observation, species that have been observed with any given frequency in the enlarged sample of size n+m. Such an estimator admits a closed-form expression that can be exactly evaluated. The result we obtain allows us to quantify both the rate at which rare species are detected and the achieved sample coverage of abundant species, as m increases. Natural applications are represented by the estimation of the probability of discovering rare genes within genomic libraries and the results are illustrated by means of two expressed sequence tags datasets. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Population-based surveillance for bacterial meningitis in China, September 2006-December 2009.

PubMed

Li, Yixing; Yin, Zundong; Shao, Zhujun; Li, Manshi; Liang, Xiaofeng; Sandhu, Hardeep S; Hadler, Stephen C; Li, Junhong; Sun, Yinqi; Li, Jing; Zou, Wenjing; Lin, Mei; Zuo, Shuyan; Mayer, Leonard W; Novak, Ryan T; Zhu, Bingqing; Xu, Li; Luo, Huiming

2014-01-01

During September 2006-December 2009, we conducted active population and sentinel laboratory-based surveillance for bacterial meningitis pathogens, including Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae type b, in 4 China prefectures. We identified 7,876 acute meningitis and encephalitis syndrome cases, including 6,388 among prefecture residents. A total of 833 resident cases from sentinel hospitals met the World Health Organization case definition for probable bacterial meningitis; 339 of these cases were among children <5 years of age. Laboratory testing confirmed bacterial meningitis in 74 of 3,391 tested cases. The estimated annual incidence (per 100,000 population) of probable bacterial meningitis ranged from 1.84 to 2.93 for the entire population and from 6.95 to 22.30 for children <5 years old. Active surveillance with laboratory confirmation has provided a population-based estimate of the number of probable bacterial meningitis cases in China, but more complete laboratory testing is needed to better define the epidemiology of the disease in this country.

Population-based Surveillance for Bacterial Meningitis in China, September 2006–December 2009

PubMed Central

Li, Yixing; Yin, Zundong; Shao, Zhujun; Li, Manshi; Liang, Xiaofeng; Sandhu, Hardeep S.; Hadler, Stephen C.; Li, Junhong; Sun, Yinqi; Li, Jing; Zou, Wenjing; Lin, Mei; Zuo, Shuyan; Mayer, Leonard W.; Novak, Ryan T.; Zhu, Bingqing; Xu, Li

2014-01-01

During September 2006–December 2009, we conducted active population and sentinel laboratory–based surveillance for bacterial meningitis pathogens, including Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae type b, in 4 China prefectures. We identified 7,876 acute meningitis and encephalitis syndrome cases, including 6,388 among prefecture residents. A total of 833 resident cases from sentinel hospitals met the World Health Organization case definition for probable bacterial meningitis; 339 of these cases were among children <5 years of age. Laboratory testing confirmed bacterial meningitis in 74 of 3,391 tested cases. The estimated annual incidence (per 100,000 population) of probable bacterial meningitis ranged from 1.84 to 2.93 for the entire population and from 6.95 to 22.30 for children <5 years old. Active surveillance with laboratory confirmation has provided a population-based estimate of the number of probable bacterial meningitis cases in China, but more complete laboratory testing is needed to better define the epidemiology of the disease in this country. PMID:24377388

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients☆

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Cheng; Shen, Yan; Wang, Boqing; Weeks, Greg

2014-01-01

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou’s [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839–874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates. PMID:26052178

Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients.

PubMed

Hsiao, Cheng; Shen, Yan; Wang, Boqing; Weeks, Greg

2008-07-01

This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and personal characteristics affect the employment rate of the prime-age female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a transition probability model to take into account issues of sample attrition, sample refreshment and duration dependence. We also generalize Honoré and Kyriazidou's [Honoré, B.E., Kyriazidou, E., 2000. Panel data discrete choice models with lagged dependent variables. Econometrica 68 (4), 839-874] conditional maximum likelihood estimator to allow for the presence of individual-specific effects. A limited information test is suggested to test for selection issues in non-experimental data. The specification tests indicate that the (conditional on the set of the confounding variables considered) assumptions of no selection due to unobservables and/or no unobserved individual-specific effects are not violated. Our findings indicate that the first job search service does have positive and significant impacts on the employment rate. However, providing repeated JSS to the same client has no significant impact. Further, we find that there are significant experience-enhancing effects. These findings suggest that providing one job search services training to individuals may have a lasting impact on raising their employment rates.

The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Volume XVII : Effects of Ocean Covariates and Release Timing on First Ocean-Year Survival of Fall Chinook Salmon from Oregon and Washington Coastal Hatcheries.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burgess, Caitlin; Skalski, John R.

2001-05-01

Effects of oceanographic conditions, as well as effects of release-timing and release-size, on first ocean-year survival of subyearling fall chinook salmon were investigated by analyzing CWT release and recovery data from Oregon and Washington coastal hatcheries. Age-class strength was estimated using a multinomial probability likelihood which estimated first-year survival as a proportional hazards regression against ocean and release covariates. Weight-at-release and release-month were found to significantly effect first year survival (p < 0.05) and ocean effects were therefore estimated after adjusting for weight-at-release. Negative survival trend was modeled for sea surface temperature (SST) during 11 months of the year overmore » the study period (1970-1992). Statistically significant negative survival trends (p < 0.05) were found for SST during April, June, November and December. Strong pairwise correlations (r > 0.6) between SST in April/June, April/November and April/December suggest the significant relationships were due to one underlying process. At higher latitudes (45{sup o} and 48{sup o}N), summer upwelling (June-August) showed positive survival trend with survival and fall (September-November) downwelling showed positive trend with survival, indicating early fall transition improved survival. At 45{sup o} and 48{sup o}, during spring, alternating survival trends with upwelling were observed between March and May, with negative trend occurring in March and May, and positive trend with survival occurring in April. In January, two distinct scenarios of improved survival were linked to upwelling conditions, indicated by (1) a significant linear model effect (p < 0.05) showing improved survival with increasing upwelling, and (2) significant bowl-shaped curvature (p < 0.05) of survival with upwelling. The interpretation of the effects is that there was (1) significantly improved survival when downwelling conditions shifted to upwelling conditions in January (i.e., early spring transition occurred, p < 0.05), (2) improved survival during strong downwelling conditions (Bakun units < -250). Survival decreased during weak downwelling conditions (Bakun units between -180 and -100). Strong to moderately strong correlations between January upwelling and April SST (r = 0.5), June SST (r = 0.6), and the North Pacific Index (NPI) of Aleutian Low strength (r > 0.7) suggest January is a period when important effects originate and play out over ensuing months. Significant inverse trend with survival (p < 0.05) was found for Bakun indices in December, indicating strong downwelling improved survival. Higher-than-average adult return rates were observed for cohorts from brood-years 1982-1983, strong El Nino years. Individual hatcheries were found to have unique age-class strength and age-at-return characteristics.« less

New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

PubMed

Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

2017-03-01

Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

Estimation of transition probabilities of credit ratings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah

2015-12-01

The present research is based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal. The components in the vector mi (mi1, mi2,⋯, mi10) may first be used to denote the credit ratings of the ten companies in the i-th quarter. The vector mi+1 in the next quarter is modelled to be dependent on the vector mi via a conditional distribution which is derived from a 20-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) for getting mi+1,j = l given that mi, j = k is then computed from the conditional distribution. It is found that the variation of the transition probability Pkl (i ,j ) as i varies is able to give indication for the possible transition of the credit rating of the j-th company in the near future.

INTEROCC case–control study: lack of association between glioma tumors and occupational exposure to selected combustion products, dusts and other chemical agents

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The aim was to investigate possible associations between glioma (an aggressive type of brain cancer) and occupational exposure to selected agents: combustion products (diesel and gasoline exhaust emissions, benzo(a)pyrene), dusts (animal dust, asbestos, crystalline silica, wood dust) and some other chemical agents (formaldehyde, oil mist, sulphur dioxide). Methods The INTEROCC study included cases diagnosed with glioma during 2000–2004 in sub-regions of seven countries. Population controls, selected from various sampling frames in different centers, were frequency or individually matched to cases by sex, age and center. Face-to-face interviews with the subject or a proxy respondent were conducted by trained interviewers. Detailed information was collected on socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics, medical history and work history. Occupational exposure to the 10 selected agents was assessed by a job exposure matrix (JEM) which provides estimates of the probability and level of exposure for different occupations. Using a 25% probability of exposure in a given occupation in the JEM as the threshold for considering a worker exposed, the lifetime prevalence of exposure varied from about 1% to about 15% for the different agents. Associations between glioma and each of the 10 agents were estimated by conditional logistic regression, and using three separate exposure indices: i) ever vs. never; ii) lifetime cumulative exposure; iii) total duration of exposure. Results The study sample consisted of 1,800 glioma cases and 5,160 controls. Most odds ratio estimates were close to the null value. None of the ten agents displayed a significantly increased odds ratio nor any indication of dose–response relationships with cumulative exposure or with duration of exposure. Conclusion Thus, there was no evidence that these exposures influence risk of glioma. PMID:23587105

INTEROCC case-control study: lack of association between glioma tumors and occupational exposure to selected combustion products, dusts and other chemical agents.

PubMed

Lacourt, Aude; Cardis, Elisabeth; Pintos, Javier; Richardson, Lesley; Kincl, Laurel; Benke, Geza; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, Dave; Parent, Marie-Elise; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Lavoue, Jerome; van Tongeren, Martie; Siemiatycki, Jack

2013-04-12

The aim was to investigate possible associations between glioma (an aggressive type of brain cancer) and occupational exposure to selected agents: combustion products (diesel and gasoline exhaust emissions, benzo(a)pyrene), dusts (animal dust, asbestos, crystalline silica, wood dust) and some other chemical agents (formaldehyde, oil mist, sulphur dioxide). The INTEROCC study included cases diagnosed with glioma during 2000-2004 in sub-regions of seven countries. Population controls, selected from various sampling frames in different centers, were frequency or individually matched to cases by sex, age and center. Face-to-face interviews with the subject or a proxy respondent were conducted by trained interviewers. Detailed information was collected on socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics, medical history and work history. Occupational exposure to the 10 selected agents was assessed by a job exposure matrix (JEM) which provides estimates of the probability and level of exposure for different occupations. Using a 25% probability of exposure in a given occupation in the JEM as the threshold for considering a worker exposed, the lifetime prevalence of exposure varied from about 1% to about 15% for the different agents. Associations between glioma and each of the 10 agents were estimated by conditional logistic regression, and using three separate exposure indices: i) ever vs. never; ii) lifetime cumulative exposure; iii) total duration of exposure. The study sample consisted of 1,800 glioma cases and 5,160 controls. Most odds ratio estimates were close to the null value. None of the ten agents displayed a significantly increased odds ratio nor any indication of dose-response relationships with cumulative exposure or with duration of exposure. Thus, there was no evidence that these exposures influence risk of glioma.

Detection of the toughest: Pedestrian injury risk as a smooth function of age.

PubMed

Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko

2017-07-04

Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to-passenger car accidents and incorporates age-in addition to collision speed and injury severity-as a plug-in parameter. Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression. The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians. The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found.

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

More Education May Limit Disability and Extend Life For People With Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Laditka, Sarah B; Laditka, James N

2014-08-01

Education is associated with longer life and less disability. Living longer increases risks of cognitive impairment, often producing disability. We examined associations among education, disability, and life expectancy for people with cognitive impairment, following a 1992 cohort ages 55+ for 23 063 person-years (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, n = 2165). We estimated monthly probabilities of disability and death for 7 education levels, adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, and cognitive status. We used the probabilities to simulate populations with age-specific cognitive impairment incidence and monthly disability status through death. For those with cognitive impairment, education was associated with longer life and less disability. Among them, college-educated white women lived 3.2 more years than those with <8 years education, disabled 24.4% of life from age 55 compared with 36.7% (P< .0001). Increasing education will lengthen lives. Living longer, more people will have cognitive impairment. Education may limit their risk of disability and its duration. © The Author(s) 2014.

The role of ensemble post-processing for modeling the ensemble tail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2016-04-01

The past decades the numerical weather prediction community has witnessed a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecast and state estimation (Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015; Buizza et al., 2008), in an attempt to quantify the uncertainties associated with initial-condition and model errors. An important benefit of a probabilistic framework is the improved prediction of extreme events. However, one may ask to what extent such model estimates contain information on the occurrence probability of extreme events and how this information can be optimally extracted. Different approaches have been proposed and applied on real-world systems which, based on extreme value theory, allow the estimation of extreme-event probabilities conditional on forecasts and state estimates (Ferro, 2007; Friederichs, 2010). Using ensemble predictions generated with a model of low dimensionality, a thorough investigation is presented quantifying the change of predictability of extreme events associated with ensemble post-processing and other influencing factors including the finite ensemble size, lead time and model assumption and the use of different covariates (ensemble mean, maximum, spread...) for modeling the tail distribution. Tail modeling is performed by deriving extreme-quantile estimates using peak-over-threshold representation (generalized Pareto distribution) or quantile regression. Common ensemble post-processing methods aim to improve mostly the ensemble mean and spread of a raw forecast (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). Conditional tail modeling, on the other hand, is a post-processing in itself, focusing on the tails only. Therefore, it is unclear how applying ensemble post-processing prior to conditional tail modeling impacts the skill of extreme-event predictions. This work is investigating this question in details. Buizza, Leutbecher, and Isaksen, 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 2051-2066.Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 3366-3382.Ferro, 2007: A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Weather and Forecasting 22 (5), 1089-1100.Friederichs, 2010: Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation events using extreme value theory. Extremes 13, 109-132.Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141: 807-818.

Linear regression analysis of survival data with missing censoring indicators.

PubMed

Wang, Qihua; Dinse, Gregg E

2011-04-01

Linear regression analysis has been studied extensively in a random censorship setting, but typically all of the censoring indicators are assumed to be observed. In this paper, we develop synthetic data methods for estimating regression parameters in a linear model when some censoring indicators are missing. We define estimators based on regression calibration, imputation, and inverse probability weighting techniques, and we prove all three estimators are asymptotically normal. The finite-sample performance of each estimator is evaluated via simulation. We illustrate our methods by assessing the effects of sex and age on the time to non-ambulatory progression for patients in a brain cancer clinical trial.

Diagnostic accuracy of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot (IB) for the detection of antibodies against Neospora caninum in milk from dairy cows.

PubMed

Chatziprodromidou, I P; Apostolou, T

2018-04-01

The aim of the study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblot (IB) for detecting antibodies of Neospora caninum in dairy cows, in the absence of a gold standard. The study complies with STRADAS-paratuberculosis guidelines for reporting the accuracy of the test. We tried to apply Bayesian models that do not require conditional independence of the tests under evaluation, but as convergence problems appeared, we used Bayesian methodology, that does not assume conditional dependence of the tests. Informative prior probability distributions were constructed, based on scientific inputs regarding sensitivity and specificity of the IB test and the prevalence of disease in the studied populations. IB sensitivity and specificity were estimated to be 98.8% and 91.3%, respectively, while the respective estimates for ELISA were 60% and 96.7%. A sensitivity analysis, where modified prior probability distributions concerning IB diagnostic accuracy applied, showed a limited effect in posterior assessments. We concluded that ELISA can be used to screen the bulk milk and secondly, IB can be used whenever needed.

Use of attribute association error probability estimates to evaluate quality of medical record geocodes.

PubMed

Klaus, Christian A; Carrasco, Luis E; Goldberg, Daniel W; Henry, Kevin A; Sherman, Recinda L

2015-09-15

The utility of patient attributes associated with the spatiotemporal analysis of medical records lies not just in their values but also the strength of association between them. Estimating the extent to which a hierarchy of conditional probability exists between patient attribute associations such as patient identifying fields, patient and date of diagnosis, and patient and address at diagnosis is fundamental to estimating the strength of association between patient and geocode, and patient and enumeration area. We propose a hierarchy for the attribute associations within medical records that enable spatiotemporal relationships. We also present a set of metrics that store attribute association error probability (AAEP), to estimate error probability for all attribute associations upon which certainty in a patient geocode depends. A series of experiments were undertaken to understand how error estimation could be operationalized within health data and what levels of AAEP in real data reveal themselves using these methods. Specifically, the goals of this evaluation were to (1) assess if the concept of our error assessment techniques could be implemented by a population-based cancer registry; (2) apply the techniques to real data from a large health data agency and characterize the observed levels of AAEP; and (3) demonstrate how detected AAEP might impact spatiotemporal health research. We present an evaluation of AAEP metrics generated for cancer cases in a North Carolina county. We show examples of how we estimated AAEP for selected attribute associations and circumstances. We demonstrate the distribution of AAEP in our case sample across attribute associations, and demonstrate ways in which disease registry specific operations influence the prevalence of AAEP estimates for specific attribute associations. The effort to detect and store estimates of AAEP is worthwhile because of the increase in confidence fostered by the attribute association level approach to the assessment of uncertainty in patient geocodes, relative to existing geocoding related uncertainty metrics.

Empirical models of transitions between coral reef states: effects of region, protection, and environmental change.

PubMed

Lowe, Phillip K; Bruno, John F; Selig, Elizabeth R; Spencer, Matthew

2011-01-01

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996-2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide risk analysis for management decisions.

Longitudinal Predictors of Institutionalization in Old Age.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Brettschneider, Christian; Lange, Carolin; Posselt, Tina; Wiese, Birgitt; Steinmann, Susanne; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Stein, Janine; Luck, Tobias; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Wagner, Michael; Jessen, Frank; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

2015-01-01

To investigate time-dependent predictors of institutionalization in old age using a longitudinal approach. In a representative survey of the German general population aged 75 years and older predictors of institutionalization were observed every 1.5 years over six waves. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions (with 201 individuals and 960 observations) were performed to estimate the effects of marital status, depression, dementia, and physical impairments (mobility, hearing and visual impairments) on the risk of admission to old-age home or nursing home. By exploiting the longitudinal data structure using panel econometric models, we were able to control for unobserved heterogeneity such as genetic predisposition and personality traits. The probability of institutionalization increased significantly with occurrence of widowhood, depression, dementia, as well as walking and hearing impairments. In particular, the occurrence of widowhood (OR = 78.3), dementia (OR = 154.1) and substantial mobility impairment (OR = 36.7) were strongly associated with institutionalization. Findings underline the strong influence of loss of spouse as well as dementia on institutionalization. This is relevant as the number of old people (a) living alone and (b) suffering from dementia is expected to increase rapidly in the next decades. Consequently, it is supposed that the demand for institutionalization among the elderly will increase considerably. Practitioners as well as policy makers should be aware of these upcoming challenges.

New Estimates of Intergenerational Time Intervals for the Calculation of Age and Origins of Mutations

PubMed Central

Tremblay, Marc; Vézina, Hélène

2000-01-01

Summary Intergenerational time intervals are frequently used in human population-genetics studies concerned with the ages and origins of mutations. In most cases, mean intervals of 20 or 25 years are used, regardless of the demographic characteristics of the population under study. Although these characteristics may vary from prehistoric to historical times, we suggest that this value is probably too low, and that the ages of some mutations may have been underestimated. Analyses were performed by using the BALSAC Population Register (Quebec, Canada), from which several intergenerational comparisons can be made. Family reconstitutions were used to measure interval lengths and variations in descending lineages. Various parameters were considered, such as spouse age at marriage, parental age, and reproduction levels. Mother-child and father-child intervals were compared. Intergenerational male and female intervals were also analyzed in 100 extended ascending genealogies. Results showed that a mean value of 30 years is a better estimate of intergenerational intervals than 20 or 25 years. As marked differences between male and female interval length were observed, specific values are proposed for mtDNA, autosomal, X-chromosomal, and Y-chromosomal loci. The applicability of these results for age estimates of mutations is discussed. PMID:10677323

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

PubMed

Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

2015-09-01

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solakiewiz, Richard; Koshak, William

2008-01-01

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Interpreting SF-12 mental component score: an investigation of its convergent validity with CESD-10.

PubMed

Yu, Doris S F; Yan, Elsie C W; Chow, Choi Kai

2015-09-01

To examine the convergent validity of Mental Component Scale of the Short-Form 12 (SF-12 MCS) with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10). The CESD-10 is a screening tool for probably clinically significant depression in the Chinese population. Data were obtained from a household survey carried out in Hong Kong. A two-stage stratified sampling method successfully interviewed 1795 adult subjects from 1239 households. Data on SF-12 MCS and the CESD-10 were extracted. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were performed to examine the convergent validity of SF-12 MCS against the CESD-10 threshold for probably clinically significant depression for the younger to middle-aged, late middle-aged and older population cohorts. ROC analysis indicated the excellent convergent validity of SF-12 MCS with the CESD-10 threshold for identifying probably clinically significant depression, with the area under curve ranged from 0.81 to 0.85. The optimal cutoff scores for depression among the younger to middle age group, late middle age group and older age group were 48.1, 50.2 and 50.2, respectively, with sensitivities ranged from 77 to 83 % and specificities ranged from 73 to 78 %. Bootstrapping estimates of the mean difference indicated no significant difference in the optimal cutoff scores between these age cohorts. SF-12 is a widely adopted measure to capture the health profile of Chinese population. The study findings indicated the satisfactory performance of the SF-12 MCS in identifying probably clinical depression. Future study is warrant to examine the diagnostic validity of the SF-12 MCS by using gold standard to assess clinical depression.

Labor Force Participation of Older Workers: Prospective Changes and Potential Policy Responses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Favreault, Melissa; Ratcliffe, Caroline; Toder, Eric

1999-01-01

Data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation were matched with longitudinal earnings histories and Social Security benefit data to estimate joint work and benefit receipt choices for people age 62 and older. The probability of working is shown to depend on worker characteristics and policy variables. (Author)

Periodontal Disease and Oral Hygiene Among Children. United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Health Statistics (DHEW/PHS), Hyattsville, MD.

Statistical data presented on periodontal disease and oral hygiene among noninstitutionalized children, aged 6-11, in the United States are based on a probability sample of approximately 7,400 children involved in a national health survey during 1963-65. The report contains estimates of the Periodontal Index (PI) and the Simplified Oral Hygiene…

Height and Weight of Children: United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamill, Peter V. V.; And Others

This report contains national estimates based on findings from the Health Examination Survey in 1963-65 on height and weight measurements of children 6- to 11-years-old. A nationwide probability sample of 7,119 children was selected to represent the noninstitutionalized children (about 24 million) in this age group. Height was obtained in stocking…

Reasoning about conjunctive probabilistic concepts in childhood.

PubMed

Fisk, John E; Slattery, Rachel

2005-09-01

While adults are known to exhibit biases when making conjunctive probability judgments, little is known about childhood competencies in this area. Participants (aged between four and five years, eight and ten years, and a group of young adults) attempted to select the more likely of two events, a single event, and a conjunctive event containing, as one of its components, the single event. The problems were such that the objective probabilities of the component events were potentially available. Children in both age groups were generally successful when the single event was likely. However, when it was unlikely, a majority of children rejected it, choosing the conjunctive event instead, thereby committing the conjunction fallacy. A substantial minority of adults also committed the fallacy under equivalent conditions. It is concluded that under certain conditions children are capable of normative conjunctive judgments but that the mechanisms underpinning this capacity remain to be fully understood.

Bayesian informative dropout model for longitudinal binary data with random effects using conditional and joint modeling approaches.

PubMed

Chan, Jennifer S K

2016-05-01

Dropouts are common in longitudinal study. If the dropout probability depends on the missing observations at or after dropout, this type of dropout is called informative (or nonignorable) dropout (ID). Failure to accommodate such dropout mechanism into the model will bias the parameter estimates. We propose a conditional autoregressive model for longitudinal binary data with an ID model such that the probabilities of positive outcomes as well as the drop-out indicator in each occasion are logit linear in some covariates and outcomes. This model adopting a marginal model for outcomes and a conditional model for dropouts is called a selection model. To allow for the heterogeneity and clustering effects, the outcome model is extended to incorporate mixture and random effects. Lastly, the model is further extended to a novel model that models the outcome and dropout jointly such that their dependency is formulated through an odds ratio function. Parameters are estimated by a Bayesian approach implemented using the user-friendly Bayesian software WinBUGS. A methadone clinic dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed models. Result shows that the treatment time effect is still significant but weaker after allowing for an ID process in the data. Finally the effect of drop-out on parameter estimates is evaluated through simulation studies. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis

PubMed Central

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed. PMID:26167524

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis.

PubMed

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

Diagnostic assessment without cut-offs: application of serology for the modelling of bovine digital dermatitis infection.

PubMed

Vink, W D; Jones, G; Johnson, W O; Brown, J; Demirkan, I; Carter, S D; French, N P

2009-11-15

Bovine digital dermatitis (BDD) is an epidermitis which is a leading cause of infectious lameness. The only recognized diagnostic test is foot inspection, which is a labour-intensive procedure. There is no universally recognized, standardized lesion scoring system. As small lesions are easily missed, foot inspection has limited diagnostic sensitivity. Furthermore, interpretation is subjective, and prone to observer bias. Serology is more convenient to carry out and is potentially a more sensitive indicator of infection. By carrying out 20 serological assays using lesion-associated Treponema spp. isolates, three serogroups were identified. The reliability of the tests was established by assessing the level of agreement and the concordance correlation coefficient. Subsequently, an ELISA suitable for routine use was developed. The benchmark of diagnostic test validation is conventionally the determination of the key test parameters, sensitivity and specificity. This requires the imposition of a cut-off point. For serological assays with outcomes on a continuous scale, the degree by which the test result differs from this cut-off is disregarded. Bayesian statistical methodology has been developed which enables the assay result also to be interpreted on a continuous scale, thereby optimizing the information inherent in the test. Using a cross-sectional study dataset carried out on 8 representative dairy farms in the UK, the probability of infection, P(I), of each individual animal was estimated in the absence of a 'Gold Standard' by modelling I as a latent variable which was determined by lesion status, L as well as serology, S. Covariate data (foot hygiene score and age) were utilized to estimate P(L) when no lesion inspection was performed. Informative prior distributions were elicited where possible. The model was utilized for predictive inference, by computing estimates of P(I) and P(L) independently of the data. A more detailed and informative analysis of the farm-level distribution of infection could thus be performed. Also, biases associated with the subjective interpretation of lesion status were minimized. Model outputs showed that young stock were unlikely to be infected, whereas cows tended to have high or low probabilities of being infected. Estimates of probability of infection were considerably higher for animals with lesions than for those without. Associations were identified between both covariates and probability of infection in cows, but not in the young stock. Under the condition that the model assumptions are valid for the larger population, the results of this work can be generalized by predictive inference.

Principal Score Methods: Assumptions, Extensions, and Practical Considerations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feller, Avi; Mealli, Fabrizia; Miratrix, Luke

2017-01-01

Researchers addressing posttreatment complications in randomized trials often turn to principal stratification to define relevant assumptions and quantities of interest. One approach for the subsequent estimation of causal effects in this framework is to use methods based on the "principal score," the conditional probability of belonging…

Causal Effect of Parental Schooling on Early Childhood Undernutrition: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Zimbabwe.

PubMed

De Neve, Jan-Walter; Subramanian, S V

2018-01-01

An estimated 3.1 million children die each year because of undernutrition. Although cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have found a protective association between greater parental education and undernutrition in their children, no randomized trial has identified a causal effect, to our knowledge. Using the 1980 education reform in Zimbabwe as a natural experiment, we estimated the causal effect of additional parental schooling on the probability of anthropometric failure in their children under 5 years of age (ages 3 through 59 months). Analyzing data on 8,243 children from the 1988, 1999, 2005-2006, and 2010-2011 Demographic and Health Surveys, we found no effect of parental schooling on early childhood undernutrition at the national level in Zimbabwe. Among households in the urban and high-wealth-index subsamples, each additional year of maternal schooling led to absolute reductions in the probability of a child's being wasted of 5.2 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI): -9.3, -1.2) and 3.6 percentage points (95% CI: -6.9, -0.4), respectively. In the subsample of children between the ages of 3 and 23 months, each additional year of paternal schooling increased the probability of a child's being stunted by 9.6 percentage points (95% CI: 1.4, 17.9). Secondary schooling alone may not be enough to improve early childhood nutrition in low-resource settings. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A new statistical methodology predicting chip failure probability considering electromigration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ted

In this research thesis, we present a new approach to analyze chip reliability subject to electromigration (EM) whose fundamental causes and EM phenomenon happened in different materials are presented in this thesis. This new approach utilizes the statistical nature of EM failure in order to assess overall EM risk. It includes within-die temperature variations from the chip's temperature map extracted by an Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tool to estimate the failure probability of a design. Both the power estimation and thermal analysis are performed in the EDA flow. We first used the traditional EM approach to analyze the design with a single temperature across the entire chip that involves 6 metal and 5 via layers. Next, we used the same traditional approach but with a realistic temperature map. The traditional EM analysis approach and that coupled with a temperature map and the comparison between the results of considering and not considering temperature map are presented in in this research. A comparison between these two results confirms that using a temperature map yields a less pessimistic estimation of the chip's EM risk. Finally, we employed the statistical methodology we developed considering a temperature map and different use-condition voltages and frequencies to estimate the overall failure probability of the chip. The statistical model established considers the scaling work with the usage of traditional Black equation and four major conditions. The statistical result comparisons are within our expectations. The results of this statistical analysis confirm that the chip level failure probability is higher i) at higher use-condition frequencies for all use-condition voltages, and ii) when a single temperature instead of a temperature map across the chip is considered. In this thesis, I start with an overall review on current design types, common flows, and necessary verifications and reliability checking steps used in this IC design industry. Furthermore, the important concepts about "Scripting Automation" which is used in all the integration of using diversified EDA tools in this research work are also described in detail with several examples and my completed coding works are also put in the appendix for your reference. Hopefully, this construction of my thesis will give readers a thorough understanding about my research work from the automation of EDA tools to the statistical data generation, from the nature of EM to the statistical model construction, and the comparisons among the traditional EM analysis and the statistical EM analysis approaches.

Age accuracy and resolution of Quaternary corals used as proxies for sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edinger, E. N.; Burr, G. S.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Ortiz, J. C.

2007-01-01

The accuracy of global eustatic sea level curves measured from raised Quaternary reefs, using radiometric ages of corals at known heights, may be limited by time-averaging, which affects the variation in coral age at a given height. Time-averaging was assessed in uplifted Holocene reef sequences from the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, using radiocarbon dating of coral skeletons in both horizontal transects and vertical sequences. Calibrated 2σ age ranges varied from 800 to 1060 years along horizontal transects, but weighted mean ages calculated from 15-18 dates per horizon were accurate to a resolution within 154-214 yr. Approximately 40% of the variability in age estimate resulted from internal variability inherent to 14C estimates, and 60% was due to time-averaging. The accuracy of age estimates of sea level change in studies using single dated corals as proxies for sea level is probably within 1000 yr of actual age, but can be resolved to ≤ 250 yr if supported by dates from analysis of a statistical population of corals at each stratigraphic interval. The range of time-averaging among reef corals was much less than that for shelly benthos. Ecological time-averaging dominated over sedimentological time averaging for reef corals, opposite to patterns reported from shelly benthos in siliciclastic environments.

Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2018-01-01

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty.

PubMed

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

2013-10-01

Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis. Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients. For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4-146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10(-5) to 837.4 × 10(-5) depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2-541.0) × 10(-5). The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10(-5) and 110.3 × 10(-5) for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003-68.5) × 10(-5). The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ site in respect to treatment volume and patient's gender and age. The presented risk estimates may be useful in the follow-up studies of irradiated patients.

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape.

PubMed

Reiner, Robert C; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L

2015-10-06

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the 'colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. © 2015 The Authors.

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

US Spending on Personal Health Care and Public Health, 1996-2013.

PubMed

Dieleman, Joseph L; Baral, Ranju; Birger, Maxwell; Bui, Anthony L; Bulchis, Anne; Chapin, Abigail; Hamavid, Hannah; Horst, Cody; Johnson, Elizabeth K; Joseph, Jonathan; Lavado, Rouselle; Lomsadze, Liya; Reynolds, Alex; Squires, Ellen; Campbell, Madeline; DeCenso, Brendan; Dicker, Daniel; Flaxman, Abraham D; Gabert, Rose; Highfill, Tina; Naghavi, Mohsen; Nightingale, Noelle; Templin, Tara; Tobias, Martin I; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L

2016-12-27

US health care spending has continued to increase, and now accounts for more than 17% of the US economy. Despite the size and growth of this spending, little is known about how spending on each condition varies by age and across time. To systematically and comprehensively estimate US spending on personal health care and public health, according to condition, age and sex group, and type of care. Government budgets, insurance claims, facility surveys, household surveys, and official US records from 1996 through 2013 were collected and combined. In total, 183 sources of data were used to estimate spending for 155 conditions (including cancer, which was disaggregated into 29 conditions). For each record, spending was extracted, along with the age and sex of the patient, and the type of care. Spending was adjusted to reflect the health condition treated, rather than the primary diagnosis. Encounter with US health care system. National spending estimates stratified by condition, age and sex group, and type of care. From 1996 through 2013, $30.1 trillion of personal health care spending was disaggregated by 155 conditions, age and sex group, and type of care. Among these 155 conditions, diabetes had the highest health care spending in 2013, with an estimated $101.4 billion (uncertainty interval [UI], $96.7 billion-$106.5 billion) in spending, including 57.6% (UI, 53.8%-62.1%) spent on pharmaceuticals and 23.5% (UI, 21.7%-25.7%) spent on ambulatory care. Ischemic heart disease accounted for the second-highest amount of health care spending in 2013, with estimated spending of $88.1 billion (UI, $82.7 billion-$92.9 billion), and low back and neck pain accounted for the third-highest amount, with estimated health care spending of $87.6 billion (UI, $67.5 billion-$94.1 billion). The conditions with the highest spending levels varied by age, sex, type of care, and year. Personal health care spending increased for 143 of the 155 conditions from 1996 through 2013. Spending on low back and neck pain and on diabetes increased the most over the 18 years, by an estimated $57.2 billion (UI, $47.4 billion-$64.4 billion) and $64.4 billion (UI, $57.8 billion-$70.7 billion), respectively. From 1996 through 2013, spending on emergency care and retail pharmaceuticals increased at the fastest rates (6.4% [UI, 6.4%-6.4%] and 5.6% [UI, 5.6%-5.6%] annual growth rate, respectively), which were higher than annual rates for spending on inpatient care (2.8% [UI, 2.8%-2.8%] and nursing facility care (2.5% [UI, 2.5%-2.5%]). Modeled estimates of US spending on personal health care and public health showed substantial increases from 1996 through 2013; with spending on diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and low back and neck pain accounting for the highest amounts of spending by disease category. The rate of change in annual spending varied considerably among different conditions and types of care. This information may have implications for efforts to control US health care spending.

Effects of Hearing Loss on Dual-Task Performance in an Audiovisual Virtual Reality Simulation of Listening While Walking.

PubMed

Lau, Sin Tung; Pichora-Fuller, M Kathleen; Li, Karen Z H; Singh, Gurjit; Campos, Jennifer L

2016-07-01

Most activities of daily living require the dynamic integration of sights, sounds, and movements as people navigate complex environments. Nevertheless, little is known about the effects of hearing loss (HL) or hearing aid (HA) use on listening during multitasking challenges. The objective of the current study was to investigate the effect of age-related hearing loss (ARHL) on word recognition accuracy in a dual-task experiment. Virtual reality (VR) technologies in a specialized laboratory (Challenging Environment Assessment Laboratory) were used to produce a controlled and safe simulated environment for listening while walking. In a simulation of a downtown street intersection, participants completed two single-task conditions, listening-only (standing stationary) and walking-only (walking on a treadmill to cross the simulated intersection with no speech presented), and a dual-task condition (listening while walking). For the listening task, they were required to recognize words spoken by a target talker when there was a competing talker. For some blocks of trials, the target talker was always located at 0° azimuth (100% probability condition); for other blocks, the target talker was more likely (60% of trials) to be located at the center (0° azimuth) and less likely (40% of trials) to be located at the left (270° azimuth). The participants were eight older adults with bilateral HL (mean age = 73.3 yr, standard deviation [SD] = 8.4; three males) who wore their own HAs during testing and eight controls with normal hearing (NH) thresholds (mean age = 69.9 yr, SD = 5.4; two males). No participant had clinically significant visual, cognitive, or mobility impairments. Word recognition accuracy and kinematic parameters (head and trunk angles, step width and length, stride time, cadence) were analyzed using mixed factorial analysis of variances with group as a between-subjects factor. Task condition (single versus dual) and probability (100% versus 60%) were within-subject factors. In analyses of the 60% listening condition, spatial expectation (likely versus unlikely) was a within-subject factor. Differences between groups in age and baseline measures of hearing, mobility, and cognition were tested using t tests. The NH group had significantly better word recognition accuracy than the HL group. Both groups performed better when the probability was higher and the target location more likely. For word recognition, dual-task costs for the HL group did not depend on condition, whereas the NH group demonstrated a surprising dual-task benefit in conditions with lower probability or spatial expectation. For the kinematic parameters, both groups demonstrated a more upright and less variable head position and more variable trunk position during dual-task conditions compared to the walking-only condition, suggesting that safe walking was prioritized. The HL group demonstrated more overall stride time variability than the NH group. This study provides new knowledge about the effects of ARHL, HA use, and aging on word recognition when individuals also perform a mobility-related task that is typically experienced in everyday life. This research may help inform the development of more effective function-based approaches to assessment and intervention for people who are hard-of-hearing. American Academy of Audiology.

Site-specific human papillomavirus infection in adolescent men who have sex with men (HYPER): an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Zou, Huachun; Tabrizi, Sepehr N; Grulich, Andrew E; Hocking, Jane S; Bradshaw, Catriona S; Cornall, Alyssa M; Morrow, Andrea; Prestage, Garrett; Law, Matthew G; Garland, Suzanne M; Chen, Marcus Y; Fairley, Christopher K

2015-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) have an increased risk of anogenital human papilomavirus (HPV) infection, which can lead to HPV-related anogenital lesions such as warts, anal intraepithelial neoplasia, and anal cancer. Some of these HPV types are preventable with vaccines. We aimed to describe the incidence of anal, penile, and oral HPV infection, and to estimate the site-specific transmission probability per partner, for teenage MSM. In our observational cohort study, we enrolled teenage MSM (aged 16-20 years) with low sexual exposure and a low prevalence of HPV in Melbourne (VIC, Australia). At baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months, we took a swab from the anal canal, and participants self-collected a swab from the penis and an oral rinse. Our primary outcome was definite and probable incident HPV infection of the anus, penis, or mouth at any time in the 12 months from baseline, assessed through the presence of HPV DNA. We defined definite incident HPV infection as the same HPV type detected more than once from the same site in men who had a negative HPV test at baseline. We defined probable incident HPV infection as only one positive test. We estimated the probability of HPV transmission per partner using HPV prevalence in MSM with a similar age to partners of men in our cohort. This study is registered at the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry and ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers ACTRN12611000857909 and NCT01422356. We enrolled 200 MSM aged 16-20 years (median 19 years [IRQ 18-20; range 16-20]) between Sept 20, 2010, and Aug 24, 2012. Over the 12 month follow-up period, we detected 48 definite (107 possible) HPV infections in the anus, ten definite (34 possible) HPV infections on the penis, and no definite (six possible) infections in the mouth. Definite incidence rate per 100 person-years for any anal HPV infection was 57 (95% CI 46-68), and for any anal HPV type in the quadrivalent vaccine was 33 (23-44). Definite incidence rate per 100 person-years for any penile HPV was 12 (6-21) and for any HPV type in the quadrivalent vaccine was 5 (1-12). Estimated probabilities of HPV transmission from the penis to the anus were significantly higher than were those from the anus to the penis (p<0·05 for all HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine). High incidence rates suggest that the vaccination coverage in MSM will need to be high. The transmission estimates will inform HPV modelling. Merck. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should Patients With Frozen Shoulder Be Screened for Diabetes Mellitus?

PubMed Central

Safran, Ori; El-Haj, Madi; Leibowitz, Gil; Beyth, Shaul; Furman, Zohar; Milgrom, Charles; Kandel, Leonid

2017-01-01

Background: Idiopathic frozen shoulder (nontraumatic) is commonly encountered in patients between the ages of 35 and 60 years in general orthopaedic practice. While the prevalence of frozen shoulder among the general population is estimated to be between 2% and 4%, a significantly higher prevalence of 10% to 22% has been reported in patients with diabetes mellitus. Since diabetic patients are more prone to develop frozen shoulder than nondiabetics, the question arises as to whether patients diagnosed as having idiopathic frozen shoulder are at greater risk to develop diabetes mellitus and should be routinely screened for this condition. Purpose: To compare the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and prediabetes among patients diagnosed with idiopathic frozen shoulder who are not known to have either diabetes mellitus or prediabetic conditions with that of an age-matched group from the general population. Study Design: Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods: Patients at a shoulder clinic with a diagnosis of idiopathic frozen shoulder were asked to participate in the study if they were aged between 35 to 60 years and had no known previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus or prediabetic conditions. These patients underwent a 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test. According to their fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose levels, patients were diagnosed as normal glucose tolerance, prediabetic, or diabetic. Findings were matched with the prevalence in an age-matched general population. Results: Fifty patients completed the test. Four patients with idiopathic frozen shoulder (8%) were found to be prediabetic. No patient was found to be diabetic. All 4 patients reported a history of diabetes in their parents or siblings. Conclusion: Patients diagnosed with idiopathic frozen shoulder who are 60 years or younger and are not known diabetics have a similar probability of having diabetes or prediabetes to an age-matched population. No routine diabetic workup is warranted specifically for these patients. PMID:28812038