Regional Regression Equations to Estimate Flow-Duration Statistics at Ungaged Stream Sites in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2010-01-01

Multiple linear regression equations for determining flow-duration statistics were developed to estimate select flow exceedances ranging from 25- to 99-percent for six 'bioperiods'-Salmonid Spawning (November), Overwinter (December-February), Habitat Forming (March-April), Clupeid Spawning (May), Resident Spawning (June), and Rearing and Growth (July-October)-in Connecticut. Regression equations also were developed to estimate the 25- and 99-percent flow exceedances without reference to a bioperiod. In total, 32 equations were developed. The predictive equations were based on regression analyses relating flow statistics from streamgages to GIS-determined basin and climatic characteristics for the drainage areas of those streamgages. Thirty-nine streamgages (and an additional 6 short-term streamgages and 28 partial-record sites for the non-bioperiod 99-percent exceedance) in Connecticut and adjacent areas of neighboring States were used in the regression analysis. Weighted least squares regression analysis was used to determine the predictive equations; weights were assigned based on record length. The basin characteristics-drainage area, percentage of area with coarse-grained stratified deposits, percentage of area with wetlands, mean monthly precipitation (November), mean seasonal precipitation (December, January, and February), and mean basin elevation-are used as explanatory variables in the equations. Standard errors of estimate of the 32 equations ranged from 10.7 to 156 percent with medians of 19.2 and 55.4 percent to predict the 25- and 99-percent exceedances, respectively. Regression equations to estimate high and median flows (25- to 75-percent exceedances) are better predictors (smaller variability of the residual values around the regression line) than the equations to estimate low flows (less than 75-percent exceedance). The Habitat Forming (March-April) bioperiod had the smallest standard errors of estimate, ranging from 10.7 to 20.9 percent. In contrast, the Rearing and Growth (July-October) bioperiod had the largest standard errors, ranging from 30.9 to 156 percent. The adjusted coefficient of determination of the equations ranged from 77.5 to 99.4 percent with medians of 98.5 and 90.6 percent to predict the 25- and 99-percent exceedances, respectively. Descriptive information on the streamgages used in the regression, measured basin and climatic characteristics, and estimated flow-duration statistics are provided in this report. Flow-duration statistics and the 32 regression equations for estimating flow-duration statistics in Connecticut are stored on the U.S. Geological Survey World Wide Web application ?StreamStats? (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/index.html). The regression equations developed in this report can be used to produce unbiased estimates of select flow exceedances statewide.

Estimating dead-space fraction for secondary analyses of ARDS clinical trials

PubMed Central

Beitler, Jeremy R.; Thompson, B. Taylor; Matthay, Michael A.; Talmor, Daniel; Liu, Kathleen D.; Zhuo, Hanjing; Hayden, Douglas; Spragg, Roger G.; Malhotra, Atul

2015-01-01

Objective Pulmonary dead-space fraction is one of few lung-specific independent predictors of mortality from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, it is not measured routinely in clinical trials and thus altogether ignored in secondary analyses that shape future research directions and clinical practice. This study sought to validate an estimate of dead-space fraction for use in secondary analyses of clinical trials. Design Analysis of patient-level data pooled from ARDS clinical trials. Four approaches to estimate dead-space fraction were evaluated: three required estimating metabolic rate; one estimated dead-space fraction directly. Setting U.S. academic teaching hospitals. Patients Data from 210 patients across three clinical trials were used to compare performance of estimating equations with measured dead-space fraction. A second cohort of 3,135 patients from six clinical trials without measured dead-space fraction was used to confirm whether estimates independently predicted mortality. Interventions None. Measurements and Main Results Dead-space fraction estimated using the unadjusted Harris-Benedict equation for energy expenditure was unbiased (mean ± SD Harris-Benedict 0.59 ± 0.13; measured 0.60 ± 0.12). This estimate predicted measured dead-space fraction to within ± 0.10 in 70% of patients and ± 0.20 in 95% of patients. Measured dead-space fraction independently predicted mortality (OR 1.36 per 0.05 increase in dead-space fraction, 95% CI 1.10–1.68; p < .01). The Harris-Benedict estimate closely approximated this association with mortality in the same cohort (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.21–1.98; p < .01) and remained independently predictive of death in the larger ARDSNet cohort. Other estimates predicted measured dead-space fraction or its association with mortality less well. Conclusions Dead-space fraction should be measured in future ARDS clinical trials to facilitate incorporation into secondary analyses. For analyses where dead-space fraction was not measured, the Harris-Benedict estimate can be used to estimate dead-space fraction and adjust for its association with mortality. PMID:25738857

Guidelines for a graph-theoretic implementation of structural equation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, James B.; Schoolmaster, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Little, Amanda M.; Mitchell, Brian R.; Miller, Kathryn M.; Schweiger, E. William

2012-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is increasingly being chosen by researchers as a framework for gaining scientific insights from the quantitative analyses of data. New ideas and methods emerging from the study of causality, influences from the field of graphical modeling, and advances in statistics are expanding the rigor, capability, and even purpose of SEM. Guidelines for implementing the expanded capabilities of SEM are currently lacking. In this paper we describe new developments in SEM that we believe constitute a third-generation of the methodology. Most characteristic of this new approach is the generalization of the structural equation model as a causal graph. In this generalization, analyses are based on graph theoretic principles rather than analyses of matrices. Also, new devices such as metamodels and causal diagrams, as well as an increased emphasis on queries and probabilistic reasoning, are now included. Estimation under a graph theory framework permits the use of Bayesian or likelihood methods. The guidelines presented start from a declaration of the goals of the analysis. We then discuss how theory frames the modeling process, requirements for causal interpretation, model specification choices, selection of estimation method, model evaluation options, and use of queries, both to summarize retrospective results and for prospective analyses. The illustrative example presented involves monitoring data from wetlands on Mount Desert Island, home of Acadia National Park. Our presentation walks through the decision process involved in developing and evaluating models, as well as drawing inferences from the resulting prediction equations. In addition to evaluating hypotheses about the connections between human activities and biotic responses, we illustrate how the structural equation (SE) model can be queried to understand how interventions might take advantage of an environmental threshold to limit Typha invasions. The guidelines presented provide for an updated definition of the SEM process that subsumes the historical matrix approach under a graph-theory implementation. The implementation is also designed to permit complex specifications and to be compatible with various estimation methods. Finally, they are meant to foster the use of probabilistic reasoning in both retrospective and prospective considerations of the quantitative implications of the results.

A variational approach to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Kaschek, Daniel; Timmer, Jens

2012-08-14

Ordinary differential equations are widely-used in the field of systems biology and chemical engineering to model chemical reaction networks. Numerous techniques have been developed to estimate parameters like rate constants, initial conditions or steady state concentrations from time-resolved data. In contrast to this countable set of parameters, the estimation of entire courses of network components corresponds to an innumerable set of parameters. The approach presented in this work is able to deal with course estimation for extrinsic system inputs or intrinsic reactants, both not being constrained by the reaction network itself. Our method is based on variational calculus which is carried out analytically to derive an augmented system of differential equations including the unconstrained components as ordinary state variables. Finally, conventional parameter estimation is applied to the augmented system resulting in a combined estimation of courses and parameters. The combined estimation approach takes the uncertainty in input courses correctly into account. This leads to precise parameter estimates and correct confidence intervals. In particular this implies that small motifs of large reaction networks can be analysed independently of the rest. By the use of variational methods, elements from control theory and statistics are combined allowing for future transfer of methods between the two fields.

Methods for estimating tributary streamflow in the Chattahoochee River basin between Buford Dam and Franklin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamey, Timothy C.

1998-01-01

Simple and reliable methods for estimating hourly streamflow are needed for the calibration and verification of a Chattahoochee River basin model between Buford Dam and Franklin, Ga. The river basin model is being developed by Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, as part of their Chattahoochee River Modeling Project. Concurrent streamflow data collected at 19 continuous-record, and 31 partial-record streamflow stations, were used in ordinary least-squares linear regression analyses to define estimating equations, and in verifying drainage-area prorations. The resulting regression or drainage-area ratio estimating equations were used to compute hourly streamflow at the partial-record stations. The coefficients of determination (r-squared values) for the regression estimating equations ranged from 0.90 to 0.99. Observed and estimated hourly and daily streamflow data were computed for May 1, 1995, through October 31, 1995. Comparisons of observed and estimated daily streamflow data for 12 continuous-record tributary stations, that had available streamflow data for all or part of the period from May 1, 1995, to October 31, 1995, indicate that the mean error of estimate for the daily streamflow was about 25 percent.

Methods for estimating low-flow statistics for Massachusetts streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Friesz, Paul J.

2000-01-01

Methods and computer software are described in this report for determining flow duration, low-flow frequency statistics, and August median flows. These low-flow statistics can be estimated for unregulated streams in Massachusetts using different methods depending on whether the location of interest is at a streamgaging station, a low-flow partial-record station, or an ungaged site where no data are available. Low-flow statistics for streamgaging stations can be estimated using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods described in the report. The MOVE.1 mathematical method and a graphical correlation method can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations. The MOVE.1 method is recommended when the relation between measured flows at a partial-record station and daily mean flows at a nearby, hydrologically similar streamgaging station is linear, and the graphical method is recommended when the relation is curved. Equations are presented for computing the variance and equivalent years of record for estimates of low-flow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations when either a single or multiple index stations are used to determine the estimates. The drainage-area ratio method or regression equations can be used to estimate low-flow statistics for ungaged sites where no data are available. The drainage-area ratio method is generally as accurate as or more accurate than regression estimates when the drainage-area ratio for an ungaged site is between 0.3 and 1.5 times the drainage area of the index data-collection site. Regression equations were developed to estimate the natural, long-term 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows; the 7-day, 2-year and the 7-day, 10-year low flows; and the August median flow for ungaged sites in Massachusetts. Streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for 87 to 133 streamgaging stations and low-flow partial-record stations were used to develop the equations. The streamgaging stations had from 2 to 81 years of record, with a mean record length of 37 years. The low-flow partial-record stations had from 8 to 36 streamflow measurements, with a median of 14 measurements. All basin characteristics were determined from digital map data. The basin characteristics that were statistically significant in most of the final regression equations were drainage area, the area of stratified-drift deposits per unit of stream length plus 0.1, mean basin slope, and an indicator variable that was 0 in the eastern region and 1 in the western region of Massachusetts. The equations were developed by use of weighted-least-squares regression analyses, with weights assigned proportional to the years of record and inversely proportional to the variances of the streamflow statistics for the stations. Standard errors of prediction ranged from 70.7 to 17.5 percent for the equations to predict the 7-day, 10-year low flow and 50-percent duration flow, respectively. The equations are not applicable for use in the Southeast Coastal region of the State, or where basin characteristics for the selected ungaged site are outside the ranges of those for the stations used in the regression analyses. A World Wide Web application was developed that provides streamflow statistics for data collection stations from a data base and for ungaged sites by measuring the necessary basin characteristics for the site and solving the regression equations. Output provided by the Web application for ungaged sites includes a map of the drainage-basin boundary determined for the site, the measured basin characteristics, the estimated streamflow statistics, and 90-percent prediction intervals for the estimates. An equation is provided for combining regression and correlation estimates to obtain improved estimates of the streamflow statistics for low-flow partial-record stations. An equation is also provided for combining regression and drainage-area ratio estimates to obtain improved e

Comparison of the 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods computed from observed data with the 1995 urban flood-frequency estimating equations for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

1997-01-01

Flood-frequency relations were computed for 28 urban stations, for 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods and the computations were compared to corresponding recurrence interval floods computed from the estimating equations from a 1995 investigation. Two stations were excluded from further comparisons or analyses because neither station had a significant flood during the period of observed record. The comparisons, based on the student's t-test statistics at the 0.05 level of significance, indicate that the mean residuals of the 25- and 100-year floods were negatively biased by 26.2 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, at the 26 stations. However, the mean residuals of the 2-year floods were 2.5 percent lower than the mean of the 2-year floods computed from the equations, and were not significantly biased. The reason for this negative bias is that the period of observed record at the 26 stations was a relatively dry period. At 25 of the 26 stations, the two highest simulated peaks used to develop the estimating equations occurred many years before the observed record began. However, no attempt was made to adjust the estimating equations because higher peaks could occur after the period of observed record and an adjustment to the equations would cause an underestimation of design floods.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and harmonic mean flows for streams in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.

2017-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop regression equations for estimating six selected low-flow frequency statistics and harmonic mean flows for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The estimation equations developed for the six low-flow frequency statistics include: the annual 1-, 7-, and 30-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years, the annual 30-day mean low flow for a recurrence interval of 5 years, and the seasonal (October 1 through December 31) 1- and 7-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years. Estimation equations also were developed for the harmonic-mean-flow statistic. Estimates of these seven selected statistics are provided for 208 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamgages using data through September 30, 2006. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State's borders. Because trend analyses indicated statistically significant positive trends when considering the entire period of record for the majority of the streamgages, the longest, most recent period of record without a significant trend was determined for each streamgage for use in the study. The median number of years of record used to compute each of these seven selected statistics was 35. Geographic information system software was used to measure 54 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Following the removal of two streamgages from the initial data set, data collected for 206 streamgages were compiled to investigate three approaches for regionalization of the seven selected statistics. Regionalization, a process using statistical regression analysis, provides a relation for efficiently transferring information from a group of streamgages in a region to ungaged sites in the region. The three regionalization approaches tested included statewide, regional, and region-of-influence regressions. For the regional regression, the study area was divided into three low-flow regions on the basis of hydrologic characteristics, landform regions, and soil regions. A comparison of root mean square errors and average standard errors of prediction for the statewide, regional, and region-of-influence regressions determined that the regional regression provided the best estimates of the seven selected statistics at ungaged sites in Iowa. Because a significant number of streams in Iowa reach zero flow as their minimum flow during low-flow years, four different types of regression analyses were used: left-censored, logistic, generalized-least-squares, and weighted-least-squares regression. A total of 192 streamgages were included in the development of 27 regression equations for the three low-flow regions. For the northeast and northwest regions, a censoring threshold was used to develop 12 left-censored regression equations to estimate the 6 low-flow frequency statistics for each region. For the southern region a total of 12 regression equations were developed; 6 logistic regression equations were developed to estimate the probability of zero flow for the 6 low-flow frequency statistics and 6 generalized least-squares regression equations were developed to estimate the 6 low-flow frequency statistics, if nonzero flow is estimated first by use of the logistic equations. A weighted-least-squares regression equation was developed for each region to estimate the harmonic-mean-flow statistic. Average standard errors of estimate for the left-censored equations for the northeast region range from 64.7 to 88.1 percent and for the northwest region range from 85.8 to 111.8 percent. Misclassification percentages for the logistic equations for the southern region range from 5.6 to 14.0 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for generalized least-squares equations for the southern region range from 71.7 to 98.9 percent and pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized-least-squares equations range from 87.7 to 91.8 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for weighted-least-squares equations developed for estimating the harmonic-mean-flow statistic for each of the three regions range from 66.4 to 80.4 percent. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with low flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. If the equations are used at ungaged sites on regulated streams, or on streams affected by water-supply and agricultural withdrawals, then the estimates will need to be adjusted by the amount of regulation or withdrawal to estimate the actual flow conditions if that is of interest. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits of the equations and for basins located in karst topography. A test of two drainage-area ratio methods using 31 pairs of streamgages, for the annual 7-day mean low-flow statistic for a recurrence interval of 10 years, indicates a weighted drainage-area ratio method provides better estimates than regional regression equations for an ungaged site on a gaged stream in Iowa when the drainage-area ratio is between 0.5 and 1.4. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web-based geographic-information-system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the seven selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these seven selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

Height-diameter equations for young-growth red fir in California and southern Oregon

Treesearch

K. Leroy Dolph

1989-01-01

Total tree height of young-growth red fir can be estimated from the relation of total tree height to diameter outside bark at breast height (DOB). Total tree heights and corresponding diameters were obtained from stem analyses of 562 trees distributed across 56 sampling locations in the true fir forest type of California and Oregon. The resulting equations can predict...

Earth science research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Botkin, Daniel B.

1987-01-01

The analysis of ground-truth data from the boreal forest plots in the Superior National Forest, Minnesota, was completed. Development of statistical methods was completed for dimension analysis (equations to estimate the biomass of trees from measurements of diameter and height). The dimension-analysis equations were applied to the data obtained from ground-truth plots, to estimate the biomass. Classification and analyses of remote sensing images of the Superior National Forest were done as a test of the technique to determine forest biomass and ecological state by remote sensing. Data was archived on diskette and tape and transferred to UCSB to be used in subsequent research.

Estimation of potential scour at bridges on local government roads in South Dakota, 2009-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Ryan F.; Wattier, Chelsea M.; Liggett, Richard R.; Truax, Ryan A.

2014-01-01

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey and South Dakota Department of Transportation (SDDOT) began a study to estimate potential scour at selected bridges on local government (county, township, and municipal) roads in South Dakota. A rapid scour-estimation method (level-1.5) and a more detailed method (level-2) were used to develop estimates of contraction, abutment, and pier scour. Data from 41 level-2 analyses completed for this study were combined with data from level-2 analyses completed in previous studies to develop new South Dakota-specific regression equations: four regional equations for main-channel velocity at the bridge contraction to account for the widely varying stream conditions within South Dakota, and one equation for head change. Velocity data from streamgages also were used in the regression for average velocity through the bridge contraction. Using these new regression equations, scour analyses were completed using the level-1.5 method on 361 bridges on local government roads. Typically, level-1.5 analyses are completed at flows estimated to have annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent (100-year flood) and 0.2 percent (500-year flood); however, at some sites the bridge would not pass these flows. A level-1.5 analysis was then completed at the flow expected to produce the maximum scour. Data presented for level-1.5 scour analyses at the 361 bridges include contraction, abutment, and pier scour. Estimates of potential contraction scour ranged from 0 to 32.5 feet for the various flows evaluated. Estimated potential abutment scour ranged from 0 to 40.9 feet for left abutments, and from 0 to 37.7 feet for right abutments. Pier scour values ranged from 2.7 to 31.6 feet. The scour depth estimates provided in this report can be used by the SDDOT to compare with foundation depths at each bridge to determine if abutments or piers are at risk of being undermined by scour at the flows evaluated. Replicate analyses were completed at 24 of the 361 bridges to provide quality-assurance/quality-control measures for the level-1.5 scour estimates. An attempt was made to use the same flows among replicate analyses. Scour estimates do not necessarily have to be in numerical agreement to give the same results. For example, if contraction scour replicate analyses are 18.8 and 30.8 feet, both scour depths can indicate susceptibility to scour for which countermeasures may be needed, even though one number is much greater than the other number. Contraction scour has perhaps the greatest potential for being estimated differently in replicate visits. For contraction scour estimates at the various flows analyzed, differences between results ranged from -7.8 to 5.5 feet, with a median difference of 0.4 foot and an average difference of 0.2 foot. Abutment scour appeared to be nearly as reproducible as contraction scour. For abutment scour estimates at the varying flows analyzed, differences between results ranged from -17.4 to 11 feet, with a median difference of 1.4 feet and an average difference of 1.7 feet. Estimates of pier scour tended to be the most consistently reproduced in replicate visits, with differences between results ranging from -0.3 to 0.5 foot, with a median difference of 0.0 foot and an average difference of 0.0 foot. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulics Engineering Center River Analysis Systems (HEC-RAS) software package was used to model stream hydraulics at the 41 sites with level-2 analyses. Level-1.5 analyses also were completed at these sites, and the performance of the level-1.5 method was assessed by comparing results to those from the more rigorous level-2 method. The envelope curve approach used in the level-1.5 method is designed to overestimate scour relative to the estimate from the level-2 scour analysis. In cases where the level-1.5 method estimated less scour than the level-2 method, the amount of underestimation generally was less than 3 feet. The level-1.5 method generally overestimated contraction, abutment, and pier scour relative to the level-2 method, as intended. Although the level-1.5 method is designed to overestimate scour relative to more involved analysis methods, many assumptions, uncertainties, and estimations are involved. If the envelope curves are adjusted such that the level-1.5 method never underestimates scour relative to the level-2 method, an accompanying result may be excessive overestimation.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Arihood, Leslie D.

2010-01-01

This report provides estimates of, and presents methods for estimating, selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Kentucky including the 30-day mean low flows for recurrence intervals of 2 and 5 years (30Q2 and 30Q5) and the 7-day mean low flows for recurrence intervals of 5, 10, and 20 years (7Q2, 7Q10, and 7Q20). Estimates of these statistics are provided for 121 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations with data through the 2006 climate year, which is the 12-month period ending March 31 of each year. Data were screened to identify the periods of homogeneous, unregulated flows for use in the analyses. Logistic-regression equations are presented for estimating the annual probability of the selected low-flow frequency statistics being equal to zero. Weighted-least-squares regression equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of the nonzero 30Q2, 30Q5, 7Q2, 7Q10, and 7Q20 low flows. Three low-flow regions were defined for estimating the 7-day low-flow frequency statistics. The explicit explanatory variables in the regression equations include total drainage area and the mapped streamflow-variability index measured from a revised statewide coverage of this characteristic. The percentage of the station low-flow statistics correctly classified as zero or nonzero by use of the logistic-regression equations ranged from 87.5 to 93.8 percent. The average standard errors of prediction of the weighted-least-squares regression equations ranged from 108 to 226 percent. The 30Q2 regression equations have the smallest standard errors of prediction, and the 7Q20 regression equations have the largest standard errors of prediction. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites with low flows unaffected by regulation from reservoirs and local diversions of flow and to drainage basins in specified ranges of basin characteristics. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits and for basins with karst drainage features.

Techniques for estimating flood-depth frequency relations for streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.

1987-01-01

Multiple regression analyses are applied to data from 119 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations to develop equations that estimate baseline depth (depth of 50% flow duration) and 100-yr flood depth on unregulated streams in West Virginia. Drainage basin characteristics determined from the 100-yr flood depth analysis were used to develop 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 500-yr regional flood depth equations. Two regions with distinct baseline depth equations and three regions with distinct flood depth equations are delineated. Drainage area is the most significant independent variable found in the central and northern areas of the state where mean basin elevation also is significant. The equations are applicable to any unregulated site in West Virginia where values of independent variables are within the range evaluated for the region. Examples of inapplicable sites include those in reaches below dams, within and directly upstream from bridge or culvert constrictions, within encroached reaches, in karst areas, and where streams flow through lakes or swamps. (Author 's abstract)

A review of the challenges and opportunities in estimating above ground forest biomass using tree-level models

Treesearch

Hailemariam Temesgen; David Affleck; Krishna Poudel; Andrew Gray; John Sessions

2015-01-01

Accurate biomass measurements and analyses are critical components in quantifying carbon stocks and sequestration rates, assessing potential impacts due to climate change, locating bio-energy processing plants, and mapping and planning fuel treatments. To this end, biomass equations will remain a key component of future carbon measurements and estimation. As...

Timber volume and aboveground live tree biomass estimations for landscape analyses in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2010-01-01

Timber availability, aboveground tree biomass, and changes in aboveground carbon pools are important consequences of landscape management. There are several models available for calculating tree volume and aboveground tree biomass pools. This paper documents species-specific regional equations for tree volume and aboveground live tree biomass estimation that might be...

Human Capital--Economic Growth Nexus in the Former Soviet Bloc

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osipian, Ararat L.

2007-01-01

This study analyses the role and impact of higher education on per capita economic growth in the Former Soviet Bloc. It attempts to estimate the significance of educational levels for initiating substantial economic growth that now takes place in these two countries. This study estimates a system of linear and log-linear equations that account for…

Comparative analysis of the 1-mile run test evaluation formulae: assessment of aerobic capacity in male law enforcement officers aged 20-23 years.

PubMed

Kayihan, Gürhan; Özkan, Ali; Köklü, Yusuf; Eyuboğlu, Ender; Akça, Firat; Koz, Mitat; Ersöz, Gülfem

2014-04-01

The purpose of this study was to compare values of aerobic performance in the 1-mile run test (1-MRT) using different formulae. Aerobic capacities of 351 male volunteers working for the Turkish National Police within the age range of 20-23 years were evaluated by the 1-MRT and the 20-metre shuttle run (20-MST). VO2max values were estimated by the prediction equations developed by George et al. (1993), Cureton et al. (1995) and Kline et al. (1987) for the 1-MRT and by Leger and Lambert (1982) for the 20-MST. The difference between the results of the different formulae was significant (p = 0.000). The correlation coefficient between the estimated VO2max using Cureton's equation, George's equation, Kline's equation and the 20-MST were 0.691 (p < 0.001), 0.486 (p < 0.001) and 0.608 (p < 0.001), respectively. The highest correlation coefficient was between the VO2max estimated by the 20-MST and Cureton's equation. Similarly, the highest correlation coefficient (r = -0.779) was between the 1-mile run time and the VO2max estimated by Cureton's equation. When analysing more vigorous exercise than sub-maximal exercise, we suggest that Cureton's equation be used to predict the VO2max from 1-mile run/walk performance in large numbers of healthy individuals with high VO2max. This research compares the use of 3 different formulae to estimate VO2max from 1-mile run/walk performance in male law enforcement officers aged 20-23 years for the first time and reports the most accurate formula to use when evaluating aerobic capacities of large numbers of healthy individuals.

Estimates of streamflow characteristics for selected small streams, Baker River basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, John R.

1987-01-01

Regression equations were used to estimate streamflow characteristics at eight ungaged sites on small streams in the Baker River basin in the North Cascade Mountains, Washington, that could be suitable for run-of-the-river hydropower development. The regression equations were obtained by relating known streamflow characteristics at 25 gaging stations in nearby basins to several physical and climatic variables that could be easily measured in gaged or ungaged basins. The known streamflow characteristics were mean annual flows, 1-, 3-, and 7-day low flows and high flows, mean monthly flows, and flow duration. Drainage area and mean annual precipitation were not the most significant variables in all the regression equations. Variance in the low flows and the summer mean monthly flows was reduced by including an index of glacierized area within the basin as a third variable. Standard errors of estimate of the regression equations ranged from 25 to 88%, and the largest errors were associated with the low flow characteristics. Discharge measurements made at the eight sites near midmonth each month during 1981 were used to estimate monthly mean flows at the sites for that period. These measurements also were correlated with concurrent daily mean flows from eight operating gaging stations. The correlations provided estimates of mean monthly flows that compared reasonably well with those estimated by the regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Fitting ordinary differential equations to short time course data.

PubMed

Brewer, Daniel; Barenco, Martino; Callard, Robin; Hubank, Michael; Stark, Jaroslav

2008-02-28

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model many systems in physics, chemistry, engineering and biology. Often one wants to compare such equations with observed time course data, and use this to estimate parameters. Surprisingly, practical algorithms for doing this are relatively poorly developed, particularly in comparison with the sophistication of numerical methods for solving both initial and boundary value problems for differential equations, and for locating and analysing bifurcations. A lack of good numerical fitting methods is particularly problematic in the context of systems biology where only a handful of time points may be available. In this paper, we present a survey of existing algorithms and describe the main approaches. We also introduce and evaluate a new efficient technique for estimating ODEs linear in parameters particularly suited to situations where noise levels are high and the number of data points is low. It employs a spline-based collocation scheme and alternates linear least squares minimization steps with repeated estimates of the noise-free values of the variables. This is reminiscent of expectation-maximization methods widely used for problems with nuisance parameters or missing data.

Nonlinear equations for predictiing diameter inside bark at breast height for young-growth red fir in California and southern Oregon

Treesearch

K. Leroy Dolph

1989-01-01

Inside bark diameters of young-growth red fir can be estimated from the relationship of inside bark diameter 10 outside bark diameter at breast height. Inside and outside bark diameter were obtained from stem analyses of 562 trees distributed across 56 sampling locations in the true fir forest type of California and southern Oregon. The resulting equation can predict...

Estimates of the seasonal mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, G. H.

1983-01-01

Indirect methods are employed to estimate the wintertime and summertime mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and intercomparisons are made, together with comparisons with mean seasonal patterns of cloudiness and precipitation. Twice-daily NMC operational analyses produced general circulation statistics for 11 winters and 12 summers, permitting calculation of the seasonal NMC averages for 6 hr forecasts, solution of the omega equation, integration of continuity equation downward from 100 mb, and solution of the thermodynamic energy equation in the absence of diabatic heating. The methods all yielded similar vertical velocity patterns; however, the magnitude of the vertical velocities could not be calculated with great accuracy. Orography was concluded to have less of an effect in summer than in winter, when winds are stronger.

Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; McHugh, Amy R.

2014-01-01

Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is representative of the increased development of the last 20 years (1989–2008). The two different land- and water-use conditions were used as surrogates for development to determine whether there have been changes in low-flow statistics as a result of changes in development over time. The State was divided into two low-flow regression regions, the Coastal Plain and the non-coastal region, in order to improve the accuracy of the regression equations. The left-censored parametric survival regression method was used for the analyses to account for streamgages and partial-record stations that had zero flow values for some of the statistics. The average standard error of estimate for the 348 regression equations ranged from 16 to 340 percent. These regression equations and basin characteristics are presented in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web-based geographic information system application. This tool allows users to click on an ungaged site on a stream in New Jersey and get the estimated flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Additionally, the user can click on a streamgage or partial-record station and get the “at-site” streamflow statistics. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect the use of the stream by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to water managers who deal with problems related to municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of wastewater.

Technique for estimating the 2- to 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Terry W.; Wilson, Gary L.

1995-01-01

A generalized least-squares regression technique was used to relate the 2- to 500-year flood discharges from 278 selected streamflow-gaging stations to statistically significant basin characteristics. The regression relations (estimating equations) were defined for three hydrologic regions (I, II, and III) in rural Missouri. Ordinary least-squares regression analyses indicate that drainage area (Regions I, II, and III) and main-channel slope (Regions I and II) are the only basin characteristics needed for computing the 2- to 500-year design-flood discharges at gaged or ungaged stream locations. The resulting generalized least-squares regression equations provide a technique for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri. The regression equations for Regions I and II were developed from stream-flow-gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.13 to 11,500 square miles and 0.13 to 14,000 square miles, and main-channel slopes ranging from 1.35 to 150 feet per mile and 1.20 to 279 feet per mile. The regression equations for Region III were developed from streamflow-gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.48 to 1,040 square miles. Standard errors of estimate for the generalized least-squares regression equations in Regions I, II, and m ranged from 30 to 49 percent.

Lung function decline over 25 years of follow-up among black and white adults in the ARIC study cohort.

PubMed

Mirabelli, Maria C; Preisser, John S; Loehr, Laura R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Barr, R Graham; Couper, David J; Hankinson, John L; Hyun, Noorie; Folsom, Aaron R; London, Stephanie J

2016-04-01

Interpretation of longitudinal information about lung function decline from middle to older age has been limited by loss to follow-up that may be correlated with baseline lung function or the rate of decline. We conducted these analyses to estimate age-related decline in lung function across groups of race, sex, and smoking status while accounting for dropout from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We analyzed data from 13,896 black and white participants, aged 45-64 years at the 1987-1989 baseline clinical examination. Using spirometry data collected at baseline and two follow-up visits, we estimated annual population-averaged mean changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by race, sex, and smoking status using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning-on-being-alive. Estimated rates of FEV1 decline estimated using inverse-probability-weighted independence estimating equations conditioning on being alive were higher among white than black participants at age 45 years (e.g., male never smokers: black: -29.5 ml/year; white: -51.9 ml/year), but higher among black than white participants by age 75 (black: -51.2 ml/year; white: -26). Observed differences by race were more pronounced among men than among women. By smoking status, FEV1 declines were larger among current than former or never smokers at age 45 across all categories of race and sex. By age 60, FEV1 decline was larger among former and never than current smokers. Estimated annual declines generated using unweighted generalized estimating equations were smaller for current smokers at younger ages in all four groups of race and sex compared with results from weighted analyses that accounted for attrition. Using methods accounting for dropout from an approximately 25-year health study, estimated rates of lung function decline varied by age, race, sex, and smoking status, with largest declines observed among current smokers at younger ages. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Statistical analysis of water-level, springflow, and streamflow data for the Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso

1976-01-01

Water-level, springflow, and streamflow data were used to develop simple and multiple linear-regression equations for use in estimating water levels in wells and the flow of three major springs in the Edwards aquifer in the eastern San Antonio area. The equations provide daily, monthly, and annual estimates that compare very favorably with observed data. Analyses of geologic and hydrologic data indicate that the water discharged by the major springs is supplied primarily by regional underflow from the west and southwest and by local recharge in the infiltration area in northern Bexar, Comal, and Hays Counties.

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the different methods and the average standard errors of prediction. When all three methods were combined, the average standard errors of prediction ranged from 37.4 percent to 120.2 percent. Weighting of estimates reduced the standard errors of prediction for all T-year flood estimates in four regions, reduced the standard errors of prediction for some T-year flood estimates in two regions, and provided no reduction in average standard error of prediction in two regions. A computer program for solving the regression equations, weighting estimates, and determining reliability of individual estimates was developed and placed on the USGS Montana District World Wide Web page. A new regression method, termed Region of Influence regression, also was tested. Test results indicated that the Region of Influence method was not as reliable as the regional equations based on generalized least squares regression. Two additional methods for estimating flood frequency at ungaged sites located on the same streams as gaged sites also are described. The first method, based on a drainage-area-ratio adjustment, is intended for use on streams where the ungaged site of interest is located near a gaged site. The second method, based on interpolation between gaged sites, is intended for use on streams that have two or more streamflow-gaging stations.

Peak-flow frequency relations and evaluation of the peak-flow gaging network in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soenksen, Philip J.; Miller, Lisa D.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Watton, Jason R.

1999-01-01

Estimates of peak-flow magnitude and frequency are required for the efficient design of structures that convey flood flows or occupy floodways, such as bridges, culverts, and roads. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Nebraska Department of Roads, conducted a study to update peak-flow frequency analyses for selected streamflow-gaging stations, develop a new set of peak-flow frequency relations for ungaged streams, and evaluate the peak-flow gaging-station network for Nebraska. Data from stations located in or within about 50 miles of Nebraska were analyzed using guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data in Bulletin 17B. New generalized skew relations were developed for use in frequency analyses of unregulated streams. Thirty-three drainage-basin characteristics related to morphology, soils, and precipitation were quantified using a geographic information system, related computer programs, and digital spatial data.For unregulated streams, eight sets of regional regression equations relating drainage-basin to peak-flow characteristics were developed for seven regions of the state using a generalized least squares procedure. Two sets of regional peak-flow frequency equations were developed for basins with average soil permeability greater than 4 inches per hour, and six sets of equations were developed for specific geographic areas, usually based on drainage-basin boundaries. Standard errors of estimate for the 100-year frequency equations (1percent probability) ranged from 12.1 to 63.8 percent. For regulated reaches of nine streams, graphs of peak flow for standard frequencies and distance upstream of the mouth were estimated.The regional networks of streamflow-gaging stations on unregulated streams were analyzed to evaluate how additional data might affect the average sampling errors of the newly developed peak-flow equations for the 100-year frequency occurrence. Results indicated that data from new stations, rather than more data from existing stations, probably would produce the greatest reduction in average sampling errors of the equations.

Estimation of potential bridge scour at bridges on state routes in South Dakota, 2003-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Ryan F.; Fosness, Ryan L.

2008-01-01

Flowing water can erode (scour) soils and cause structural failure of a bridge by exposing or undermining bridge foundations (abutments and piers). A rapid scour-estimation technique, known as the level-1.5 method and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was used to evaluate potential scour at bridges in South Dakota in a study conducted in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Transportation. This method was used during 2003-07 to estimate scour for the 100-year and 500-year floods at 734 selected bridges managed by the South Dakota Department of Transportation on State routes in South Dakota. Scour depths and other parameters estimated from the level-1.5 analyses are presented in tabular form. Estimates of potential contraction scour at the 734 bridges ranged from 0 to 33.9 feet for the 100-year flood and from 0 to 35.8 feet for the 500-year flood. Abutment scour ranged from 0 to 36.9 feet for the 100-year flood and from 0 to 45.9 feet for the 500-year flood. Pier scour ranged from 0 to 30.8 feet for the 100-year flood and from 0 to 30.7 feet for the 500-year flood. The scour depths estimated by using the level-1.5 method can be used by the South Dakota Department of Transportation and others to identify bridges that may be susceptible to scour. Scour at 19 selected bridges also was estimated by using the level-2 method. Estimates of contraction, abutment, and pier scour calculated by using the level-1.5 and level-2 methods are presented in tabular and graphical formats. Compared to level-2 scour estimates, the level-1.5 method generally overestimated scour as designed, or in a few cases slightly underestimated scour. Results of the level-2 analyses were used to develop regression equations for change in head and average velocity through the bridge opening. These regression equations derived from South Dakota data are compared to similar regression equations derived from Montana and Colorado data. Future level-1.5 scour investigations in South Dakota may benefit from the use of these South Dakota-specific regression equations for estimating change in stream head and average velocity at the bridge.

Estimating energy expenditure in vascular surgery patients: Are predictive equations accurate enough?

PubMed

Suen, J; Thomas, J M; Delaney, C L; Spark, J I; Miller, M D

2016-12-01

Malnutrition is prevalent in vascular surgical patients who commonly seek tertiary care at advanced stages of disease. Adjunct nutrition support is therefore pertinent to optimise patient outcomes. To negate consequences related to excessive or suboptimal dietary energy intake, it is essential to accurately determine energy expenditure and subsequent requirements. This study aims to compare resting energy expenditure (REE) measured by indirect calorimetry, a commonly used comparator, to REE estimated by predictive equations (Schofield, Harris-Benedict equations and Miller equation) to determine the most suitable equation for vascular surgery patients. Data were collected from four studies that measured REE in 77 vascular surgery patients. Bland-Altman analyses were conducted to explore agreement. Presence of fixed or proportional bias was assessed by linear regression analyses. In comparison to measured REE, on average REE was overestimated when Schofield (+857 kJ/day), Harris-Benedict (+801 kJ/day) and Miller (+71 kJ/day) equations were used. Wide limits of agreement led to an over or underestimation from 1552 to 1755 kJ. Proportional bias was absent in Schofield (R 2  = 0.005, p = 0.54) and Harris-Benedict equations (R 2  = 0.045, p = 0.06) but was present in the Miller equation (R 2  = 0.210, p < 0.01) even after logarithmic transformation (R 2  = 0.213, p < 0.01). Whilst the Miller equation tended to overestimate resting energy expenditure and was affected by proportional bias, the limits of agreement and mean bias were smaller compared to Schofield and Harris-Benedict equations. This suggested that it is the preferred predictive equation for vascular surgery patients. Future research to refine the Miller equation to improve its overall accuracy will better inform the provision of nutritional support for vascular surgery patients and subsequently improve outcomes. Alternatively, an equation might be developed specifically for use with vascular surgery patients. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary optimization with data collocation for reverse engineering of biological networks.

PubMed

Tsai, Kuan-Yao; Wang, Feng-Sheng

2005-04-01

Modern experimental biology is moving away from analyses of single elements to whole-organism measurements. Such measured time-course data contain a wealth of information about the structure and dynamic of the pathway or network. The dynamic modeling of the whole systems is formulated as a reverse problem that requires a well-suited mathematical model and a very efficient computational method to identify the model structure and parameters. Numerical integration for differential equations and finding global parameter values are still two major challenges in this field of the parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic biological systems. We compare three techniques of parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamic biological systems. In the proposed scheme, the modified collocation method is applied to convert the differential equations to the system of algebraic equations. The observed time-course data are then substituted into the algebraic system equations to decouple system interactions in order to obtain the approximate model profiles. Hybrid differential evolution (HDE) with population size of five is able to find a global solution. The method is not only suited for parameter estimation but also can be applied for structure identification. The solution obtained by HDE is then used as the starting point for a local search method to yield the refined estimates.

Search algorithm complexity modeling with application to image alignment and matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DelMarco, Stephen

2014-05-01

Search algorithm complexity modeling, in the form of penetration rate estimation, provides a useful way to estimate search efficiency in application domains which involve searching over a hypothesis space of reference templates or models, as in model-based object recognition, automatic target recognition, and biometric recognition. The penetration rate quantifies the expected portion of the database that must be searched, and is useful for estimating search algorithm computational requirements. In this paper we perform mathematical modeling to derive general equations for penetration rate estimates that are applicable to a wide range of recognition problems. We extend previous penetration rate analyses to use more general probabilistic modeling assumptions. In particular we provide penetration rate equations within the framework of a model-based image alignment application domain in which a prioritized hierarchical grid search is used to rank subspace bins based on matching probability. We derive general equations, and provide special cases based on simplifying assumptions. We show how previously-derived penetration rate equations are special cases of the general formulation. We apply the analysis to model-based logo image alignment in which a hierarchical grid search is used over a geometric misalignment transform hypothesis space. We present numerical results validating the modeling assumptions and derived formulation.

Estimates of Median Flows for Streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.; Wolock, David M.; Artman, Joshua C.

2004-01-01

The Kansas State Legislature, by enacting Kansas Statute KSA 82a?2001 et. seq., mandated the criteria for determining which Kansas stream segments would be subject to classification by the State. One criterion for the selection as a classified stream segment is based on the statistic of median flow being equal to or greater than 1 cubic foot per second. As specified by KSA 82a?2001 et. seq., median flows were determined from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging-station data by using the most-recent 10 years of gaged data (KSA) for each streamflow-gaging station. Median flows also were determined by using gaged data from the entire period of record (all-available hydrology, AAH). Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating median flows for uncontrolled stream segments. The drainage area of the gaging stations on uncontrolled stream segments used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. A logarithmic transformation of the data was needed to develop the best linear relation for computing median flows. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. Tobit analyses of KSA data yielded a model standard error of prediction of 0.285 logarithmic units, and the best equations using Tobit analyses of AAH data had a model standard error of prediction of 0.250 logarithmic units. These regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute median flows for the uncontrolled stream segments on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Measured median flows from gaging stations were incorporated into the regression-estimated median flows along the stream segments where available. The segments that were uncontrolled were interpolated using gaged data weighted according to the drainage area and the bias between the regression-estimated and gaged flow information. On controlled segments of Kansas streams, the median flow information was interpolated between gaging stations using only gaged data weighted by drainage area. Of the 2,232 total stream segments on the Kansas Surface Water Register, 34.5 percent of the segments had an estimated median streamflow of less than 1 cubic foot per second when the KSA analysis was used. When the AAH analysis was used, 36.2 percent of the segments had an estimated median streamflow of less than 1 cubic foot per second. This report supercedes U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 02?4292.

An O(Nm(sup 2)) Plane Solver for the Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. L.; Bonhaus, D. L.; Anderson, W. K.; Rumsey, C. L.; Biedron, R. T.

1999-01-01

A hierarchical multigrid algorithm for efficient steady solutions to the two-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes equations is developed and demonstrated. The algorithm applies multigrid in two ways: a Full Approximation Scheme (FAS) for a nonlinear residual equation and a Correction Scheme (CS) for a linearized defect correction implicit equation. Multigrid analyses which include the effect of boundary conditions in one direction are used to estimate the convergence rate of the algorithm for a model convection equation. Three alternating-line- implicit algorithms are compared in terms of efficiency. The analyses indicate that full multigrid efficiency is not attained in the general case; the number of cycles to attain convergence is dependent on the mesh density for high-frequency cross-stream variations. However, the dependence is reasonably small and fast convergence is eventually attained for any given frequency with either the FAS or the CS scheme alone. The paper summarizes numerical computations for which convergence has been attained to within truncation error in a few multigrid cycles for both inviscid and viscous ow simulations on highly stretched meshes.

Discrepancies between the use of MDRD-4 IDMS and CKD-EPI equations, instead of the Cockcroft-Gault equation, in the determination of the dosage of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Pérez Cabeza, Alejandro Isidoro; Chinchurreta Capote, Pedro Antonio; González Correa, Jose Antonio; Ruiz Mateas, Francisco; Rosas Cervantes, Gabriel; Rivas Ruiz, Francisco; Valle Alberca, Almudena; Bravo Marqués, Rafael

2018-02-09

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) require dose adjustment according to estimated clearance creatinine (eClCr) using the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) equation. There are discrepancies with the equations that estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We analyse how the use of the CKD-EPI and MDRD-4 IDMS equations affect the recommended dosage for ACODs. Retrospective study of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation seen at a cardiology clinic between November 2012 and August 2014. Patients were reclassified according to the recommended dosage for dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban and edoxaban, based on the eGFR equation used. Other clinical factors are taken into account, according to the product label. We analysed the percentage of discordance. Four hundred and fifty-four patients, 53.3% men, with a mean age of 68.7±13.8 years were studied. The mean intra-individual differences recorded for the CG equation were 3.9ml/min/1.73m 2 with MDRD-4 IDMS (95% CI 1.4-6.4, P=.003) and 11.3ml/min/1.73m 2 with CKD-EPI (95% CI 8.9-13.7, P<.001). A gradient is observed in the discordance of the posology (apixaban 1.1%, dabigatran 3.5%, edoxaban 5.7%, rivaroxaban 8.4% with MDRD-4 IDMS). Differences were limited to patients with eClCr<60ml/min and were more evident in≥75 years in which the eGFR equations overestimate renal function. In patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, especially with renal failure and in the elderly, eGFR equations tend to overestimate renal function relative to CG and therefore suggest an overdose of DOACs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

One-Dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage (OTIS): A Solute Transport Model for Streams and Rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.

1998-01-01

OTIS is a mathematical simulation model used to characterize the fate and transport of water-borne solutes in streams and rivers. The governing equation underlying the model is the advection-dispersion equation with additional terms to account for transient storage, lateral inflow, first-order decay, and sorption. This equation and the associated equations describing transient storage and sorption are solved using a Crank-Nicolson finite-difference solution. OTIS may be used in conjunction with data from field-scale tracer experiments to quantify the hydrologic parameters affecting solute transport. This application typically involves a trial-and-error approach wherein parameter estimates are adjusted to obtain an acceptable match between simulated and observed tracer concentrations. Additional applications include analyses of nonconservative solutes that are subject to sorption processes or first-order decay. OTIS-P, a modified version of OTIS, couples the solution of the governing equation with a nonlinear regression package. OTIS-P determines an optimal set of parameter estimates that minimize the squared differences between the simulated and observed concentrations, thereby automating the parameter estimation process. This report details the development and application of OTIS and OTIS-P. Sections of the report describe model theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate.

PubMed

Matsushita, Kunihiro; Mahmoodi, Bakhtawar K; Woodward, Mark; Emberson, Jonathan R; Jafar, Tazeen H; Jee, Sun Ha; Polkinghorne, Kevan R; Shankar, Anoop; Smith, David H; Tonelli, Marcello; Warnock, David G; Wen, Chi-Pang; Coresh, Josef; Gansevoort, Ron T; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Levey, Andrew S

2012-05-09

The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking. To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a broad range of demographic and clinical characteristics. A meta-analysis of data from 1.1 million adults (aged ≥ 18 years) from 25 general population cohorts, 7 high-risk cohorts (of vascular disease), and 13 CKD cohorts. Data transfer and analyses were conducted between March 2011 and March 2012. All-cause mortality (84,482 deaths from 40 cohorts), cardiovascular mortality (22,176 events from 28 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (7644 events from 21 cohorts) during 9.4 million person-years of follow-up; the median of mean follow-up time across cohorts was 7.4 years (interquartile range, 4.2-10.5 years). Estimated GFR was classified into 6 categories (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) by both equations. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, 24.4% and 0.6% of participants from general population cohorts were reclassified to a higher and lower estimated GFR category, respectively, by the CKD-EPI equation, and the prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was reduced from 8.7% to 6.3%. In estimated GFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the MDRD Study equation, 34.7% of participants were reclassified to estimated GFR of 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the CKD-EPI equation and had lower incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for the outcomes of interest (9.9 vs 34.5 for all-cause mortality, 2.7 vs 13.0 for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.5 vs 0.8 for ESRD) compared with those not reclassified. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for all-cause mortality, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.82) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.27-0.88) for ESRD. Similar findings were observed in other estimated GFR categories by the MDRD Study equation. Net reclassification improvement based on estimated GFR categories was significantly positive for all outcomes (range, 0.06-0.13; all P < .001). Net reclassification improvement was similarly positive in most subgroups defined by age (<65 years and ≥65 years), sex, race/ethnicity (white, Asian, and black), and presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. The results in the high-risk and CKD cohorts were largely consistent with the general population cohorts. The CKD-EPI equation classified fewer individuals as having CKD and more accurately categorized the risk for mortality and ESRD than did the MDRD Study equation across a broad range of populations.

Estimation of total body water from bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy in oncology outpatients receiving radiotherapy and agreement with three prediction equations.

PubMed

Isenring, E; Colombo, M; Cross, G; Kellett, E; Swaney, L

2009-02-01

Bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy (BIS) may be more accurate in determining total body water (TBW) than bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). The present study compared the agreement between three TBW prediction equations developed using BIA and BIS-derived TBW in oncology outpatients. A cross-sectional, observational study was conducted in 37 outpatients receiving radiotherapy (27 males/10 females, aged 68.3 +/- 10.2 years). TBW was estimated by BIS (TBW(BIS)) and three BIA TBW prediction equations (TBW(ca-u): underweight cancer patients; TBW(ca-n): normal-weight cancer patients; and TBW(rad): patients receiving radiotherapy). Bland-Altman analyses determined agreement between methods. BIS-derived TBW using new resistivity constants was calculated. The mean +/- SD of TBW estimated by BIS was 39.8 +/- 8.3 L, which was significantly different from the prediction equations; TBW(rad) 35.1 +/- 7.9 L, TBW(ca-u) 33.1 +/- 7.5 L and TBW(ca-n) 32.3 +/- 7.3 L, (P < 0.001). Using new resistivity constants, TBW was 36.2 +/- 8.1 L but this still differed from the equations (P < 0.001). Bias between TBW(BIS) and that predicted by the equations was in the range 4.7-7.4 L or 1.1-3.9 L using new resistivity constants. TBW estimated by BIS cannot be directly compared with oncology-specific BIA equations, suggesting that BIS cannot be used at the group level in outpatients receiving radiotherapy. There was a reduced bias with BIS using new resistivity constants; however, further research should determine any advantage of BIS over BIA in this population.

Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.

2013-01-01

The weather and precipitation patterns in Missouri vary considerably from year to year. In 2008, the statewide average rainfall was 57.34 inches and in 2012, the statewide average rainfall was 30.64 inches. This variability in precipitation and resulting streamflow in Missouri underlies the necessity for water managers and users to have reliable streamflow statistics and a means to compute select statistics at ungaged locations for a better understanding of water availability. Knowledge of surface-water availability is dependent on the streamflow data that have been collected and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey for more than 100 years at approximately 350 streamgages throughout Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, computed streamflow statistics at streamgages through the 2010 water year, defined periods of drought and defined methods to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations, and developed regional regression equations to compute selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. Streamflow statistics and flow durations were computed for 532 streamgages in Missouri and in neighboring States of Missouri. For streamgages with more than 10 years of record, Kendall’s tau was computed to evaluate for trends in streamflow data. If trends were detected, the variable length method was used to define the period of no trend. Water years were removed from the dataset from the beginning of the record for a streamgage until no trend was detected. Low-flow frequency statistics were then computed for the entire period of record and for the period of no trend if 10 or more years of record were available for each analysis. Three methods are presented for computing selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. The first method uses power curve equations developed for 28 selected streams in Missouri and neighboring States that have multiple streamgages on the same streams. Statistical estimates on one of these streams can be calculated at an ungaged location that has a drainage area that is between 40 percent of the drainage area of the farthest upstream streamgage and within 150 percent of the drainage area of the farthest downstream streamgage along the stream of interest. The second method may be used on any stream with a streamgage that has operated for 10 years or longer and for which anthropogenic effects have not changed the low-flow characteristics at the ungaged location since collection of the streamflow data. A ratio of drainage area of the stream at the ungaged location to the drainage area of the stream at the streamgage was computed to estimate the statistic at the ungaged location. The range of applicability is between 40- and 150-percent of the drainage area of the streamgage, and the ungaged location must be located on the same stream as the streamgage. The third method uses regional regression equations to estimate selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Missouri. This report presents regression equations to estimate frequency statistics for the 10-year recurrence interval and for the N-day durations of 1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 30, and 60 days. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information system software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses based on existing digital geospatial data and previous studies. Spatial analyses for geographical bias in the predictive accuracy of the regional regression equations defined three low-flow regions with the State representing the three major physiographic provinces in Missouri. Region 1 includes the Central Lowlands, Region 2 includes the Ozark Plateaus, and Region 3 includes the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. A total of 207 streamgages were used in the regression analyses for the regional equations. Of the 207 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages, 77 were located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations. The limits for the use of these equations are based on the ranges of the characteristics used as independent variables and that streams must be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities.

Sediment composition for the assessment of water erosion and nonpoint source pollution in natural and fire-affected landscapes.

PubMed

Carkovic, Athena B; Pastén, Pablo A; Bonilla, Carlos A

2015-04-15

Water erosion is a leading cause of soil degradation and a major nonpoint source pollution problem. Many efforts have been undertaken to estimate the amount and size distribution of the sediment leaving the field. Multi-size class water erosion models subdivide eroded soil into different sizes and estimate the aggregate's composition based on empirical equations derived from agricultural soils. The objective of this study was to evaluate these equations on soil samples collected from natural landscapes (uncultivated) and fire-affected soils. Chemical, physical, and soil fractions and aggregate composition analyses were performed on samples collected in the Chilean Patagonia and later compared with the equations' estimates. The results showed that the empirical equations were not suitable for predicting the sediment fractions. Fine particles, including primary clay, primary silt, and small aggregates (<53 μm) were over-estimated, and large aggregates (>53 μm) and primary sand were under-estimated. The uncultivated and fire-affected soils showed a reduced fraction of fine particles in the sediment, as clay and silt were mostly in the form of large aggregates. Thus, a new set of equations was developed for these soils, where small aggregates were defined as particles with sizes between 53 μm and 250 μm and large aggregates as particles>250 μm. With r(2) values between 0.47 and 0.98, the new equations provided better estimates for primary sand and large aggregates. The aggregate's composition was also well predicted, especially the silt and clay fractions in the large aggregates from uncultivated soils (r(2)=0.63 and 0.83, respectively) and the fractions of silt in the small aggregates (r(2)=0.84) and clay in the large aggregates (r(2)=0.78) from fire-affected soils. Overall, these new equations proved to be better predictors for the sediment and aggregate's composition in uncultivated and fire-affected soils, and they reduce the error when estimating soil loss in natural landscapes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differences between the most used equations in BAT-human studies to estimate parameters of skin temperature in young lean men.

PubMed

Martinez-Tellez, Borja; Sanchez-Delgado, Guillermo; Acosta, Francisco M; Alcantara, Juan M A; Boon, Mariëtte R; Rensen, Patrick C N; Ruiz, Jonatan R

2017-09-05

Cold exposure is necessary to activate human brown adipose tissue (BAT), resulting in heat production. Skin temperature is an indirect measure to monitor the body's reaction to cold. The aim of this research was to study whether the most used equations to estimate parameters of skin temperature in BAT-human studies measure the same values of temperature in young lean men (n = 11: 23.4 ± 0.5 years, fat mass: 19.9 ± 1.2%). Skin temperature was measured with 26 ibuttons at 1-minute intervals in warm and cold room conditions. We used 12 equations to estimate parameters of mean, proximal, and distal skin temperature as well as skin temperature gradients. Data were analysed with Temperatus software. Significant differences were found across equations to measure the same parameters of skin temperature in warm and cold room conditions, hampering comparison across studies. Based on these findings, we suggest to use a set of 14 ibuttons at anatomical positions reported by ISO STANDARD 9886:2004 plus five ibuttons placed on the right supraclavicular fossa, right middle clavicular bone, right middle upper forearm, right top of forefinger, and right upper chest.

Creatinine-based equations for the adjustment of drug dosage in an obese population.

PubMed

Bouquegneau, Antoine; Vidal-Petiot, Emmanuelle; Moranne, Olivier; Mariat, Christophe; Boffa, Jean-Jacques; Vrtovsnik, François; Scheen, André-Jean; Krzesinski, Jean-Marie; Flamant, Martin; Delanaye, Pierre

2016-02-01

For drug dosing adaptation, the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines recommend using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, after 'de-indexation' by body surface area (BSA). In pharmacology, the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) equation is still recommended to adapt drug dosage. In the context of obesity, adjusted ideal body weight (AIBW) is sometimes preferred to actual body weight (ABW) for the CG equation. The aim of the present study was to compare the performance of the different GFR-estimating equations, non-indexed or de-indexed by BSA for the purpose of drug-dosage adaptation in obese patients. We analysed data from patients with a body mass index (BMI) higher than 30 kg m(-2) who underwent a GFR measurement. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations, de-indexed by BSA, and the CG equation, using either ABW, AIBW or lean body weight (LBW) for the weight variable and compared with measured GFR, expressed in ml min(-1). In our population of obese patients, use of the AIBW instead of the ABW in the CG equation, markedly improved the overall accuracy of this equation [57% for CGABW and 79% for CGAIBW (P < 0.05)]. For high BMI (over 40 kg m(-2)), the accuracy of the CG equations is no different when using LBW than when using AIBW. The MDRD and CKD-EPI equations de-indexed by the BSA also performed well, with an overall higher accuracy for the MDRD de-indexed equation [(80% and 76%, respectively (P < 0.05)]. The de-indexed MDRD equation appeared to be the most suitable for estimating the non-indexed GFR for the purpose of drug dosage adaptation in obese patients. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Estimation of Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Streams on the Island of Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Michael F.

1994-01-01

This report describes techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for the island of Oahu. The log-Pearson Type III distribution and methodology recommended by the Interagency Committee on Water Data was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at 79 gaging stations that had 11 to 72 years of record. Multiple regression analysis was used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. Oahu was divided into three hydrologic regions to define relations between peak discharge and drainage-basin and climatic characteristics. Regression equations are provided to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges at ungaged sites. Significant basin and climatic characteristics included in the regression equations are drainage area, median annual rainfall, and the 2-year, 24-hour rainfall intensity. Drainage areas for sites used in this study ranged from 0.03 to 45.7 square miles. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 34 to 62 percent. Peak-discharge data collected through water year 1988, geographic information system (GIS) technology, and generalized least-squares regression were used in the analyses. The use of GIS seems to be a more flexible and consistent means of defining and calculating basin and climatic characteristics than using manual methods. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations in this report are an average of 8 percent less than those published in previous studies.

Estimating unknown input parameters when implementing the NGA ground-motion prediction equations in engineering practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaklamanos, James; Baise, Laurie G.; Boore, David M.

2011-01-01

The ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed as part of the Next Generation Attenuation of Ground Motions (NGA-West) project in 2008 are becoming widely used in seismic hazard analyses. However, these new models are considerably more complicated than previous GMPEs, and they require several more input parameters. When employing the NGA models, users routinely face situations in which some of the required input parameters are unknown. In this paper, we present a framework for estimating the unknown source, path, and site parameters when implementing the NGA models in engineering practice, and we derive geometrically-based equations relating the three distance measures found in the NGA models. Our intent is for the content of this paper not only to make the NGA models more accessible, but also to help with the implementation of other present or future GMPEs.

Assessing Spurious Interaction Effects in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Weiss, Brandi A.; Li, Ming

2015-01-01

Several studies have stressed the importance of simultaneously estimating interaction and quadratic effects in multiple regression analyses, even if theory only suggests an interaction effect should be present. Specifically, past studies suggested that failing to simultaneously include quadratic effects when testing for interaction effects could…

Stress analysis of rotating propellers subject to forced excitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgun, Ulas

Turbine blades experience vibrations due to the flow disturbances. These vibrations are the leading cause for fatigue failure in turbine blades. This thesis presents the finite element analysis methods to estimate the maximum vibrational stresses of rotating structures under forced excitation. The presentation included starts with the derived equations of motion for vibration of rotating beams using energy methods under the Euler Bernoulli beam assumptions. The nonlinear large displacement formulation captures the centrifugal stiffening and gyroscopic effects. The weak form of the equations and their finite element discretization are shown. The methods implemented were used for normal modes analyses and forced vibration analyses of rotating beam structures. The prediction of peak stresses under simultaneous multi-mode excitation show that the maximum vibrational stresses estimated using the linear superposition of the stresses can greatly overestimate the stresses if the phase information due to damping (physical and gyroscopic effects) are neglected. The last section of this thesis also presents the results of a practical study that involves finite element analysis and redesign of a composite propeller.

A fiber Bragg grating sensor system for estimating the large deflection of a lightweight flexible beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Te; Yang, Yangyang; Ma, Lina; Yang, Huayong

2016-10-01

A sensor system based on fiber Bragg grating (FBG) is presented which is to estimate the deflection of a lightweight flexible beam, including the tip position and the tip rotation angle. In this paper, the classical problem of the deflection of a lightweight flexible beam of linear elastic material is analysed. We present the differential equation governing the behavior of a physical system and show that this equation although straightforward in appearance, is in fact rather difficult to solve due to the presence of a non-linear term. We used epoxy glue to attach the FBG sensors to specific locations upper and lower surface of the beam in order to measure local strain measurements. A quasi-distributed FBG static strain sensor network is designed and established. The estimation results from FBG sensors are also compared to reference displacements from the ANSYS simulation results and the experimental results obtained in the laboratory in the static case. The errors of the estimation by FBG sensors are analysed for further error-correction and option-design. When the load weight is 20g, the precision is the highest, the position errors ex and ex are 0.19%, 0.14% respectively, the rotation error eθ, is 1.23%.

Comparison, analysis, and estimation of discharge data from two acoustic velocity meters on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal at Romeoville, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, Charles S.; Oberg, Kevin A.

1993-01-01

The acoustic velocity meter (AVM) on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (the Canal) at Romeoville, Ill., provides vital information for the accounting of the diversion of water from Lake Michigan. A detailed analysis of the discharge record on the Canal at Romeoville was done by the U.S. Geological Survey to establish the most accurate estimates of discharge for water years 1986-91. The analysis involved (1) checking the consistency of the discharges estimated by two different AVM's installed at Romeoville for consecutive time periods by statistical and regression analyses, (2) adjusting the discharge record to account for corrections to the width and depth of the Canal determined by field measurements, and (3) development of equations for estimating discharge on days when the AVM was inoperative using discharge estimates made by the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago at the lock, powerhouse, and controlling works at Lockport, Ill. No signi- ficant difference in the discharge estimates made by the two AVM's could be documented. The estimation equations combined regression analysis with physical principles of the outlet-works operation. The estimation equations simulated the verification period of October 1, 1991, to May 31, 1992, within 0.22, 5.15, and 0.66 percent for the mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient, respectively. Discharges were recalculated for the corrected width and depth, estimated for the periods of AVM inoperation, and entered into the discharge record for the station.

Agreement between different methods and predictive equations for resting energy expenditure in overweight and obese Brazilian men.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Fernanda Cristina Esteves; Alves, Raquel Duarte Moreira; Zuconi, Carolina Pereira; Ribeiro, Andréia Queiroz; Bressan, Josefina

2012-09-01

Predictive equations and methods tend to overestimate or underestimate resting energy expenditure (REE) compared with indirect calorimetry (IC). This cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate the agreement between methods and equations for REE estimation of overweight and obese Brazilian men. Data from 48 healthy volunteers, ages 20 to 43 years and with body mass index ranging from 26.4 to 35.2, were collected between October 2008 and October 2009. REE was measured by IC, using Deltatrac (IC1) and KORR-MetaCheck (IC2) devices. It was estimated by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) using tetrapolar (BIA1) and bipolar (BIA2) devices, and by the equations of Mifflin, World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University, Fleisch, Horie-Waitzberg and Gonzalez, and Ireton-Jones. The association and agreement among the methods and equations were assessed by the interclass correlation coefficient, Bland-Altman analysis, and by the percentage of the difference between values obtained from the standard method and alternative methods and equations. Most methods showed high agreement with IC1. The highest agreements were found for Mifflin (-2.14%), Fleisch (-3.05%), Horie-Waitzberg and Gonzalez (4.41%), and BIA2 (5.25%). Similar results were shown by the Bland-Altman analyses. BIA2, followed by BIA1, Ireton-Jones, Mifflin, and Fleisch, showed the highest association with IC1. Thus, the Mifflin, Fleisch, Horie-Waitzberg and Gonzalez equations, and BIA2, were the most accurate methods for REE estimation in this study. However, because those equations have shown considerable variability, they should be used cautiously. In addition, the IC2 was not found to be an accurate method for REE estimation in overweight and obese men included in this study. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A parameter estimation subroutine package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, G. J.; Nead, M. W.

1978-01-01

Linear least squares estimation and regression analyses continue to play a major role in orbit determination and related areas. In this report we document a library of FORTRAN subroutines that have been developed to facilitate analyses of a variety of estimation problems. Our purpose is to present an easy to use, multi-purpose set of algorithms that are reasonably efficient and which use a minimal amount of computer storage. Subroutine inputs, outputs, usage and listings are given along with examples of how these routines can be used. The following outline indicates the scope of this report: Section (1) introduction with reference to background material; Section (2) examples and applications; Section (3) subroutine directory summary; Section (4) the subroutine directory user description with input, output, and usage explained; and Section (5) subroutine FORTRAN listings. The routines are compact and efficient and are far superior to the normal equation and Kalman filter data processing algorithms that are often used for least squares analyses.

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of lean body mass and appendicular lean soft tissue in Indian men and women.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Bharati; Kuper, Hannah; Taylor, Amy; Wells, Jonathan C; Radhakrishna, K V; Kinra, Sanjay; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; Byrne, Nuala M; Hills, Andrew P

2013-10-15

Lean body mass (LBM) and muscle mass remain difficult to quantify in large epidemiological studies due to the unavailability of inexpensive methods. We therefore developed anthropometric prediction equations to estimate the LBM and appendicular lean soft tissue (ALST) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Healthy volunteers (n = 2,220; 36% women; age 18-79 yr), representing a wide range of body mass index (14-44 kg/m(2)), participated in this study. Their LBM, including ALST, was assessed by DXA along with anthropometric measurements. The sample was divided into prediction (60%) and validation (40%) sets. In the prediction set, a number of prediction models were constructed using DXA-measured LBM and ALST estimates as dependent variables and a combination of anthropometric indices as independent variables. These equations were cross-validated in the validation set. Simple equations using age, height, and weight explained >90% variation in the LBM and ALST in both men and women. Additional variables (hip and limb circumferences and sum of skinfold thicknesses) increased the explained variation by 5-8% in the fully adjusted models predicting LBM and ALST. More complex equations using all of the above anthropometric variables could predict the DXA-measured LBM and ALST accurately, as indicated by low standard error of the estimate (LBM: 1.47 kg and 1.63 kg for men and women, respectively), as well as good agreement by Bland-Altman analyses (Bland JM, Altman D. Lancet 1: 307-310, 1986). These equations could be a valuable tool in large epidemiological studies assessing these body compartments in Indians and other population groups with similar body composition.

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of lean body mass and appendicular lean soft tissue in Indian men and women

PubMed Central

Kuper, Hannah; Taylor, Amy; Wells, Jonathan C.; Radhakrishna, K. V.; Kinra, Sanjay; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Smith, George Davey; Ebrahim, Shah; Byrne, Nuala M.; Hills, Andrew P.

2013-01-01

Lean body mass (LBM) and muscle mass remain difficult to quantify in large epidemiological studies due to the unavailability of inexpensive methods. We therefore developed anthropometric prediction equations to estimate the LBM and appendicular lean soft tissue (ALST) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Healthy volunteers (n = 2,220; 36% women; age 18-79 yr), representing a wide range of body mass index (14–44 kg/m2), participated in this study. Their LBM, including ALST, was assessed by DXA along with anthropometric measurements. The sample was divided into prediction (60%) and validation (40%) sets. In the prediction set, a number of prediction models were constructed using DXA-measured LBM and ALST estimates as dependent variables and a combination of anthropometric indices as independent variables. These equations were cross-validated in the validation set. Simple equations using age, height, and weight explained >90% variation in the LBM and ALST in both men and women. Additional variables (hip and limb circumferences and sum of skinfold thicknesses) increased the explained variation by 5–8% in the fully adjusted models predicting LBM and ALST. More complex equations using all of the above anthropometric variables could predict the DXA-measured LBM and ALST accurately, as indicated by low standard error of the estimate (LBM: 1.47 kg and 1.63 kg for men and women, respectively), as well as good agreement by Bland-Altman analyses (Bland JM, Altman D. Lancet 1: 307–310, 1986). These equations could be a valuable tool in large epidemiological studies assessing these body compartments in Indians and other population groups with similar body composition. PMID:23950165

Dietary intakes assessed by 24-h recalls in peri-urban African adolescents: validity of energy intake compared with estimated energy expenditure.

PubMed

Rankin, D; Ellis, S M; Macintyre, U E; Hanekom, S M; Wright, H H

2011-08-01

The objective of this study is to determine the relative validity of reported energy intake (EI) derived from multiple 24-h recalls against estimated energy expenditure (EE(est)). Basal metabolic rate (BMR) equations and physical activity factors were incorporated to calculate EE(est). This analysis was nested in the multidisciplinary PhysicaL Activity in the Young study with a prospective study design. Peri-urban black South African adolescents were investigated in a subsample of 131 learners (87 girls and 44 boys) from the parent study sample of 369 (211 girls and 158 boys) who had all measurements taken. Pearson correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots were calculated to identify the most accurate published equations to estimate BMR (P<0.05 statistically significant). EE(est) was estimated using BMR equations and estimated physical activity factors derived from Previous Day Physical Activity Recall questionnaires. After calculation of EE(est), the relative validity of reported energy intake (EI(rep)) derived from multiple 24-h recalls was tested for three data subsets using Pearson correlation coefficients. Goldberg's formula identified cut points (CPs) for under and over reporting of EI. Pearson correlation coefficients between calculated BMRs ranged from 0.97 to 0.99. Bland-Altman analyses showed acceptable agreement (two equations for each gender). One equation for each gender was used to calculate EE(est). Pearson correlation coefficients between EI(rep) and EE(est) for three data sets were weak, indicating poor agreement. CPs for physical activity groups showed under reporting in 87% boys and 95% girls. The 24-h recalls measured at five measurements over 2 years offered poor validity between EI(rep) and EE(est).

Peak-flow characteristics of Wyoming streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kirk A.

2003-01-01

Peak-flow characteristics for unregulated streams in Wyoming are described in this report. Frequency relations for annual peak flows through water year 2000 at 364 streamflow-gaging stations in and near Wyoming were evaluated and revised or updated as needed. Analyses of historical floods, temporal trends, and generalized skew were included in the evaluation. Physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each gaging station using a geographic information system. Gaging stations with similar peak-flow and basin characteristics were grouped into six hydrologic regions. Regional statistical relations between peak-flow and basin characteristics were explored using multiple-regression techniques. Generalized least squares regression equations for estimating magnitudes of annual peak flows with selected recurrence intervals from 1.5 to 500 years were developed for each region. Average standard errors of estimate range from 34 to 131 percent. Average standard errors of prediction range from 35 to 135 percent. Several statistics for evaluating and comparing the errors in these estimates are described. Limitations of the equations are described. Methods for applying the regional equations for various circumstances are listed and examples are given.

Derivation and validation of simple anthropometric equations to predict adipose tissue mass and total fat mass with MRI as the reference method

PubMed Central

Al-Gindan, Yasmin Y.; Hankey, Catherine R.; Govan, Lindsay; Gallagher, Dympna; Heymsfield, Steven B.; Lean, Michael E. J.

2017-01-01

The reference organ-level body composition measurement method is MRI. Practical estimations of total adipose tissue mass (TATM), total adipose tissue fat mass (TATFM) and total body fat are valuable for epidemiology, but validated prediction equations based on MRI are not currently available. We aimed to derive and validate new anthropometric equations to estimate MRI-measured TATM/TATFM/total body fat and compare them with existing prediction equations using older methods. The derivation sample included 416 participants (222 women), aged between 18 and 88 years with BMI between 15·9 and 40·8 (kg/m2). The validation sample included 204 participants (110 women), aged between 18 and 86 years with BMI between 15·7 and 36·4 (kg/m2). Both samples included mixed ethnic/racial groups. All the participants underwent whole-body MRI to quantify TATM (dependent variable) and anthropometry (independent variables). Prediction equations developed using stepwise multiple regression were further investigated for agreement and bias before validation in separate data sets. Simplest equations with optimal R2 and Bland–Altman plots demonstrated good agreement without bias in the validation analyses: men: TATM (kg) = 0·198 weight (kg) + 0·478 waist (cm) − 0·147 height (cm) − 12·8 (validation: R2 0·79, CV = 20 %, standard error of the estimate (SEE)=3·8 kg) and women: TATM (kg)=0·789 weight (kg) + 0·0786 age (years) − 0·342 height (cm) + 24·5 (validation: R2 0·84, CV = 13 %, SEE = 3·0 kg). Published anthropometric prediction equations, based on MRI and computed tomographic scans, correlated strongly with MRI-measured TATM: (R2 0·70 – 0·82). Estimated TATFM correlated well with published prediction equations for total body fat based on underwater weighing (R2 0·70–0·80), with mean bias of 2·5–4·9 kg, correctable with log-transformation in most equations. In conclusion, new equations, using simple anthropometric measurements, estimated MRI-measured TATM with correlations and agreements suitable for use in groups and populations across a wide range of fatness. PMID:26435103

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges from urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, L.D.

1986-01-01

Techniques are defined for estimating the magnitude and frequency of future flood peak discharges of rainfall-induced runoff from small urban basins in Missouri. These techniques were developed from an initial analysis of flood records of 96 gaged sites in Missouri and adjacent states. Final regression equations are based on a balanced, representative sampling of 37 gaged sites in Missouri. This sample included 9 statewide urban study sites, 18 urban sites in St. Louis County, and 10 predominantly rural sites statewide. Short-term records were extended on the basis of long-term climatic records and use of a rainfall-runoff model. Linear least-squares regression analyses were used with log-transformed variables to relate flood magnitudes of selected recurrence intervals (dependent variables) to selected drainage basin indexes (independent variables). For gaged urban study sites within the State, the flood peak estimates are from the frequency curves defined from the synthesized long-term discharge records. Flood frequency estimates are made for ungaged sites by using regression equations that require determination of the drainage basin size and either the percentage of impervious area or a basin development factor. Alternative sets of equations are given for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods. The average standard errors of estimate range from about 33% for the 2-yr flood to 26% for the 100-yr flood. The techniques for estimation are applicable to flood flows that are not significantly affected by storage caused by manmade activities. Flood peak discharge estimating equations are considered applicable for sites on basins draining approximately 0.25 to 40 sq mi. (Author 's abstract)

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Applicability of geomechanical classifications for estimation of strength properties in Brazilian rock masses.

PubMed

Santos, Tatiana B; Lana, Milene S; Santos, Allan E M; Silveira, Larissa R C

2017-01-01

Many authors have been proposed several correlation equations between geomechanical classifications and strength parameters. However, these correlation equations have been based in rock masses with different characteristics when compared to Brazilian rock masses. This paper aims to study the applicability of the geomechanical classifications to obtain strength parameters of three Brazilian rock masses. Four classification systems have been used; the Rock Mass Rating (RMR), the Rock Mass Quality (Q), the Geological Strength Index (GSI) and the Rock Mass Index (RMi). A strong rock mass and two soft rock masses with different degrees of weathering located in the cities of Ouro Preto and Mariana, Brazil; were selected for the study. Correlation equations were used to estimate the strength properties of these rock masses. However, such correlations do not always provide compatible results with the rock mass behavior. For the calibration of the strength values obtained through the use of classification systems, ​​stability analyses of failures in these rock masses have been done. After calibration of these parameters, the applicability of the various correlation equations found in the literature have been discussed. According to the results presented in this paper, some of these equations are not suitable for the studied rock masses.

Regionalization of winter low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures were developed for estimating winter (December-April) low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to West Tennessee streams, and another set applies to Middle and East Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by the activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for West Tennessee are 22% - 35% and for middle and East Tennessee 31% - 36%. Statistical analyses indicate that summer low-flow characteristics are the same as annual low-flow characteristics, and that winter low flows are larger than annual low flows. Streamflow-recession indexes, in days per log cycle of decrease in discharge, were used to account for effects of geology on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that contribute to streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow-recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza - a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models.

PubMed

Van Vlaenderen, Ilse; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Meier, Genevieve; Nautrup, Barbara Poulsen

2013-01-22

Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses. Annual exceedance-probability discharge estimates were computed for 278 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a log-Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data from water year 1844 to 2012. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect potentially influential low floods. Annual peak flows less than a minimum recordable discharge at a streamgage were incorporated into the at-site station analyses. An updated regional skew coefficient was determined for the State of Missouri using Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least squares regression analyses. At-site skew estimates for 108 long-term streamgages with 30 or more years of record and the 35 basin characteristics defined for this study were used to estimate the regional variability in skew. However, a constant generalized-skew value of -0.30 and a mean square error of 0.14 were determined in this study. Previous flood studies indicated that the distinct physical features of the three physiographic provinces have a pronounced effect on the magnitude of flood peaks. Trends in the magnitudes of the residuals from preliminary statewide regression analyses from previous studies confirmed that regional analyses in this study were similar and related to three primary physiographic provinces. The final regional regression analyses resulted in three sets of equations. For Regions 1 and 2, the basin characteristics of drainage area and basin shape factor were statistically significant. For Region 3, because of the small amount of data from streamgages, only drainage area was statistically significant. Average standard errors of prediction ranged from 28.7 to 38.4 percent for flood region 1, 24.1 to 43.5 percent for flood region 2, and 25.8 to 30.5 percent for region 3. The regional regression equations are only applicable to stream sites in Missouri with flows not significantly affected by regulation, channelization, backwater, diversion, or urbanization. Basins with about 5 percent or less impervious area were considered to be rural. Applicability of the equations are limited to the basin characteristic values that range from 0.11 to 8,212.38 square miles (mi2) and basin shape from 2.25 to 26.59 for Region 1, 0.17 to 4,008.92 mi2 and basin shape 2.04 to 26.89 for Region 2, and 2.12 to 2,177.58 mi2 for Region 3. Annual peak data from streamgages were used to qualitatively assess the largest floods recorded at streamgages in Missouri since the 1915 water year. Based on existing streamgage data, the 1983 flood event was the largest flood event on record since 1915. The next five largest flood events, in descending order, took place in 1993, 1973, 2008, 1994 and 1915. Since 1915, five of six of the largest floods on record occurred from 1973 to 2012.

Multivariate Prediction Equations for HbA1c Lowering, Weight Change, and Hypoglycemic Events Associated with Insulin Rescue Medication in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Informing Economic Modeling.

PubMed

Willis, Michael; Asseburg, Christian; Nilsson, Andreas; Johnsson, Kristina; Kartman, Bernt

2017-03-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is chronic and progressive and the cost-effectiveness of new treatment interventions must be established over long time horizons. Given the limited durability of drugs, assumptions regarding downstream rescue medication can drive results. Especially for insulin, for which treatment effects and adverse events are known to depend on patient characteristics, this can be problematic for health economic evaluation involving modeling. To estimate parsimonious multivariate equations of treatment effects and hypoglycemic event risks for use in parameterizing insulin rescue therapy in model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. Clinical evidence for insulin use in T2DM was identified in PubMed and from published reviews and meta-analyses. Study and patient characteristics and treatment effects and adverse event rates were extracted and the data used to estimate parsimonious treatment effect and hypoglycemic event risk equations using multivariate regression analysis. Data from 91 studies featuring 171 usable study arms were identified, mostly for premix and basal insulin types. Multivariate prediction equations for glycated hemoglobin A 1c lowering and weight change were estimated separately for insulin-naive and insulin-experienced patients. Goodness of fit (R 2 ) for both outcomes were generally good, ranging from 0.44 to 0.84. Multivariate prediction equations for symptomatic, nocturnal, and severe hypoglycemic events were also estimated, though considerable heterogeneity in definitions limits their usefulness. Parsimonious and robust multivariate prediction equations were estimated for glycated hemoglobin A 1c and weight change, separately for insulin-naive and insulin-experienced patients. Using these in economic simulation modeling in T2DM can improve realism and flexibility in modeling insulin rescue medication. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodge, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.

1995-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and Ouachita Rivers have floodflow characteristics that differ from those of smaller tributary streams and were treated individually. Regional regression equations are not applicable to these large rivers. The magnitude and frequency of floods along these rivers are based on specific station data. This section is provided in the Appendix and has not been updated since the last Arkansas flood frequency report (1987b), but is included at the request of the cooperator.

Reliable Quantification of the Potential for Equations Based on Spot Urine Samples to Estimate Population Salt Intake: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason Hy; Woodward, Mark; Land, Mary-Anne; McLean, Rachael; Webster, Jacqui; Enkhtungalag, Batsaikhan; Nowson, Caryl A; Elliott, Paul; Cogswell, Mary; Toft, Ulla; Mill, Jose G; Furlanetto, Tania W; Ilich, Jasminka Z; Hong, Yet Hoi; Cohall, Damian; Luzardo, Leonella; Noboa, Oscar; Holm, Ellen; Gerbes, Alexander L; Senousy, Bahaa; Pinar Kara, Sonat; Brewster, Lizzy M; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Subramanian, Srinivas; Teo, Boon Wee; Allen, Norrina; Choudhury, Sohel Reza; Polonia, Jorge; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Campbell, Norm Rc; Neal, Bruce; Petersen, Kristina S

2016-09-21

Methods based on spot urine samples (a single sample at one time-point) have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-hour urine samples for determining mean population salt intake. The aim of this study is to identify a reliable method for estimating mean population salt intake from spot urine samples. This will be done by comparing the performance of existing equations against one other and against estimates derived from 24-hour urine samples. The effects of factors such as ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, antihypertensive drug use, health status, and timing of spot urine collection will be explored. The capacity of spot urine samples to measure change in salt intake over time will also be determined. Finally, we aim to develop a novel equation (or equations) that performs better than existing equations to estimate mean population salt intake. A systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data will be conducted. A search has been conducted to identify human studies that report salt (or sodium) excretion based upon 24-hour urine samples and spot urine samples. There were no restrictions on language, study sample size, or characteristics of the study population. MEDLINE via OvidSP (1946-present), Premedline via OvidSP, EMBASE, Global Health via OvidSP (1910-present), and the Cochrane Library were searched, and two reviewers identified eligible studies. The authors of these studies will be invited to contribute data according to a standard format. Individual participant records will be compiled and a series of analyses will be completed to: (1) compare existing equations for estimating 24-hour salt intake from spot urine samples with 24-hour urine samples, and assess the degree of bias according to key demographic and clinical characteristics; (2) assess the reliability of using spot urine samples to measure population changes in salt intake overtime; and (3) develop a novel equation that performs better than existing equations to estimate mean population salt intake. The search strategy identified 538 records; 100 records were obtained for review in full text and 73 have been confirmed as eligible. In addition, 68 abstracts were identified, some of which may contain data eligible for inclusion. Individual participant data will be requested from the authors of eligible studies. Many equations for estimating salt intake from spot urine samples have been developed and validated, although most have been studied in very specific settings. This meta-analysis of individual participant data will enable a much broader understanding of the capacity for spot urine samples to estimate population salt intake.

Nonmedical Use of Prescription Stimulants during College: Four-Year Trends in Exposure Opportunity, Use, Motives, and Sources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garnier-Dykstra, Laura M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; O'Grady, Kevin E.; Arria, Amelia M.

2012-01-01

Objective: Examine trends in nonmedical use of prescription stimulants (NPS), including motives, routes of administration, sources, cost, and risk factors. Participants: 1,253 college students. Methods: Data were collected annually during academic years 2004-2005 through 2008-2009. Generalized estimating equations analyses evaluated longitudinal…

Analysis of the low-flow characteristics of streams in Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Fred N.

1985-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Office of Public Works, used geologic maps, soils maps, precipitation data, and low-flow data to define four hydrographic regions in Louisiana having distinct low-flow characteristics. Equations were derived, using regression analyses, to estimate the 7Q2, 7Q10, and 7Q20 flow rates for basically unaltered stream basins smaller than 525 square miles. Independent variables in the equations include drainage area (square miles), mean annual precipitation index (inches), and main channel slope (feet per mile). Average standard errors of regression ranged from +44 to +61 percent. Graphs are given for estimating the 7Q2, 7Q10, and 7Q20 for stream basins for which the drainage area of the most downstream data-collection site is larger than 525 square miles. Detailed examples are given in this report for the use of the equations and graphs.

Accounting for Multiple Births in Neonatal and Perinatal Trials: Systematic Review and Case Study

PubMed Central

Hibbs, Anna Maria; Black, Dennis; Palermo, Lisa; Cnaan, Avital; Luan, Xianqun; Truog, William E; Walsh, Michele C; Ballard, Roberta A

2010-01-01

Objectives To determine the prevalence in the neonatal literature of statistical approaches accounting for the unique clustering patterns of multiple births. To explore the sensitivity of an actual trial to several analytic approaches to multiples. Methods A systematic review of recent perinatal trials assessed the prevalence of studies accounting for clustering of multiples. The NO CLD trial served as a case study of the sensitivity of the outcome to several statistical strategies. We calculated odds ratios using non-clustered (logistic regression) and clustered (generalized estimating equations, multiple outputation) analyses. Results In the systematic review, most studies did not describe the randomization of twins and did not account for clustering. Of those studies that did, exclusion of multiples and generalized estimating equations were the most common strategies. The NO CLD study included 84 infants with a sibling enrolled in the study. Multiples were more likely than singletons to be white and were born to older mothers (p<0.01). Analyses that accounted for clustering were statistically significant; analyses assuming independence were not. Conclusions The statistical approach to multiples can influence the odds ratio and width of confidence intervals, thereby affecting the interpretation of a study outcome. A minority of perinatal studies address this issue. PMID:19969305

Accounting for multiple births in neonatal and perinatal trials: systematic review and case study.

PubMed

Hibbs, Anna Maria; Black, Dennis; Palermo, Lisa; Cnaan, Avital; Luan, Xianqun; Truog, William E; Walsh, Michele C; Ballard, Roberta A

2010-02-01

To determine the prevalence in the neonatal literature of statistical approaches accounting for the unique clustering patterns of multiple births and to explore the sensitivity of an actual trial to several analytic approaches to multiples. A systematic review of recent perinatal trials assessed the prevalence of studies accounting for clustering of multiples. The Nitric Oxide to Prevent Chronic Lung Disease (NO CLD) trial served as a case study of the sensitivity of the outcome to several statistical strategies. We calculated odds ratios using nonclustered (logistic regression) and clustered (generalized estimating equations, multiple outputation) analyses. In the systematic review, most studies did not describe the random assignment of twins and did not account for clustering. Of those studies that did, exclusion of multiples and generalized estimating equations were the most common strategies. The NO CLD study included 84 infants with a sibling enrolled in the study. Multiples were more likely than singletons to be white and were born to older mothers (P < .01). Analyses that accounted for clustering were statistically significant; analyses assuming independence were not. The statistical approach to multiples can influence the odds ratio and width of confidence intervals, thereby affecting the interpretation of a study outcome. A minority of perinatal studies address this issue. Copyright 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Selected Streamflow Statistics and Regression Equations for Predicting Statistics at Stream Locations in Monroe County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Ronald E.; Hoffman, Scott A.

2006-01-01

A suite of 28 streamflow statistics, ranging from extreme low to high flows, was computed for 17 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and predicted for 20 partial-record stations in Monroe County and contiguous counties in north-eastern Pennsylvania. The predicted statistics for the partial-record stations were based on regression analyses relating inter-mittent flow measurements made at the partial-record stations indexed to concurrent daily mean flows at continuous-record stations during base-flow conditions. The same statistics also were predicted for 134 ungaged stream locations in Monroe County on the basis of regression analyses relating the statistics to GIS-determined basin characteristics for the continuous-record station drainage areas. The prediction methodology for developing the regression equations used to estimate statistics was developed for estimating low-flow frequencies. This study and a companion study found that the methodology also has application potential for predicting intermediate- and high-flow statistics. The statistics included mean monthly flows, mean annual flow, 7-day low flows for three recurrence intervals, nine flow durations, mean annual base flow, and annual mean base flows for two recurrence intervals. Low standard errors of prediction and high coefficients of determination (R2) indicated good results in using the regression equations to predict the statistics. Regression equations for the larger flow statistics tended to have lower standard errors of prediction and higher coefficients of determination (R2) than equations for the smaller flow statistics. The report discusses the methodologies used in determining the statistics and the limitations of the statistics and the equations used to predict the statistics. Caution is indicated in using the predicted statistics for small drainage area situations. Study results constitute input needed by water-resource managers in Monroe County for planning purposes and evaluation of water-resources availability.

Empirical Likelihood in Nonignorable Covariate-Missing Data Problems.

PubMed

Xie, Yanmei; Zhang, Biao

2017-04-20

Missing covariate data occurs often in regression analysis, which frequently arises in the health and social sciences as well as in survey sampling. We study methods for the analysis of a nonignorable covariate-missing data problem in an assumed conditional mean function when some covariates are completely observed but other covariates are missing for some subjects. We adopt the semiparametric perspective of Bartlett et al. (Improving upon the efficiency of complete case analysis when covariates are MNAR. Biostatistics 2014;15:719-30) on regression analyses with nonignorable missing covariates, in which they have introduced the use of two working models, the working probability model of missingness and the working conditional score model. In this paper, we study an empirical likelihood approach to nonignorable covariate-missing data problems with the objective of effectively utilizing the two working models in the analysis of covariate-missing data. We propose a unified approach to constructing a system of unbiased estimating equations, where there are more equations than unknown parameters of interest. One useful feature of these unbiased estimating equations is that they naturally incorporate the incomplete data into the data analysis, making it possible to seek efficient estimation of the parameter of interest even when the working regression function is not specified to be the optimal regression function. We apply the general methodology of empirical likelihood to optimally combine these unbiased estimating equations. We propose three maximum empirical likelihood estimators of the underlying regression parameters and compare their efficiencies with other existing competitors. We present a simulation study to compare the finite-sample performance of various methods with respect to bias, efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification. The proposed empirical likelihood method is also illustrated by an analysis of a data set from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

A cost-efficient method to assess carbon stocks in tropical peat soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, M. W.; Kauffman, J. B.; Murdiyarso, D.; Anshari, G.; Hergoualc'h, K.; Kurnianto, S.; Purbopuspito, J.; Gusmayanti, E.; Afifudin, M.; Rahajoe, J.; Alhamd, L.; Limin, S.; Iswandi, A.

2012-11-01

Estimation of belowground carbon stocks in tropical wetland forests requires funding for laboratory analyses and suitable facilities, which are often lacking in developing nations where most tropical wetlands are found. It is therefore beneficial to develop simple analytical tools to assist belowground carbon estimation where financial and technical limitations are common. Here we use published and original data to describe soil carbon density (kgC m-3; Cd) as a function of bulk density (gC cm-3; Bd), which can be used to rapidly estimate belowground carbon storage using Bd measurements only. Predicted carbon densities and stocks are compared with those obtained from direct carbon analysis for ten peat swamp forest stands in three national parks of Indonesia. Analysis of soil carbon density and bulk density from the literature indicated a strong linear relationship (Cd = Bd × 495.14 + 5.41, R2 = 0.93, n = 151) for soils with organic C content > 40%. As organic C content decreases, the relationship between Cd and Bd becomes less predictable as soil texture becomes an important determinant of Cd. The equation predicted belowground C stocks to within 0.92% to 9.57% of observed values. Average bulk density of collected peat samples was 0.127 g cm-3, which is in the upper range of previous reports for Southeast Asian peatlands. When original data were included, the revised equation Cd = Bd × 468.76 + 5.82, with R2 = 0.95 and n = 712, was slightly below the lower 95% confidence interval of the original equation, and tended to decrease Cd estimates. We recommend this last equation for a rapid estimation of soil C stocks for well-developed peat soils where C content > 40%.

What’s the good of education on our overall quality of life? A simultaneous equation model of education and life satisfaction for Australia

PubMed Central

Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Lekfuangfu, Warn N.; Wooden, Mark

2017-01-01

Many economists and educators favour public support for education on the premise that education improves the overall quality of life of citizens. However, little is known about the different pathways through which education shapes people’s satisfaction with life overall. One reason for this is because previous studies have traditionally analysed the effect of education on life satisfaction using single-equation models that ignore interrelationships between different theoretical explanatory variables. In order to advance our understanding of how education may be related to overall quality of life, the current study estimates a structural equation model using nationally representative data for Australia to obtain the direct and indirect associations between education and life satisfaction through five different adult outcomes: income, employment, marriage, children, and health. Although we find the estimated direct (or net) effect of education on life satisfaction to be negative and statistically significant in Australia, the total indirect effect is positive, sizeable and statistically significant for both men and women. This implies that misleading conclusions regarding the influence of education on life satisfaction might be obtained if only single-equation models were used in the analysis. PMID:28713668

Bayesian structural equation modeling: a more flexible representation of substantive theory.

PubMed

Muthén, Bengt; Asparouhov, Tihomir

2012-09-01

This article proposes a new approach to factor analysis and structural equation modeling using Bayesian analysis. The new approach replaces parameter specifications of exact zeros with approximate zeros based on informative, small-variance priors. It is argued that this produces an analysis that better reflects substantive theories. The proposed Bayesian approach is particularly beneficial in applications where parameters are added to a conventional model such that a nonidentified model is obtained if maximum-likelihood estimation is applied. This approach is useful for measurement aspects of latent variable modeling, such as with confirmatory factor analysis, and the measurement part of structural equation modeling. Two application areas are studied, cross-loadings and residual correlations in confirmatory factor analysis. An example using a full structural equation model is also presented, showing an efficient way to find model misspecification. The approach encompasses 3 elements: model testing using posterior predictive checking, model estimation, and model modification. Monte Carlo simulations and real data are analyzed using Mplus. The real-data analyses use data from Holzinger and Swineford's (1939) classic mental abilities study, Big Five personality factor data from a British survey, and science achievement data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988.

The Association of Irritability and Impulsivity with Suicidal Ideation Among 15- to 20-Year-Old Males

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conner, Kenneth R.; Meldrum, Sean; Wieczorek, William F.; Duberstein, Paul R.; Welte, John W.

2004-01-01

Information on the association of impulsivity and measures of aggression with suicidal ideation in adolescents and young adults is limited. Data were gathered from a community sample of 625 adolescent and young adult males. Analyses were based on multivariate generalized estimating equations. Impulsivity and irritability were associated strongly…

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza – a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Methods Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. Results The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. Conclusions This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses. PMID:23339290

Kriging analysis of mean annual precipitation, Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, M.R.; Skrivan, James A.

1981-01-01

Kriging is a statistical estimation technique for regionalized variables which exhibit an autocorrelation structure. Such structure can be described by a semi-variogram of the observed data. The kriging estimate at any point is a weighted average of the data, where the weights are determined using the semi-variogram and an assumed drift, or lack of drift, in the data. Block, or areal, estimates can also be calculated. The kriging algorithm, based on unbiased and minimum-variance estimates, involves a linear system of equations to calculate the weights. Kriging variances can then be used to give confidence intervals of the resulting estimates. Mean annual precipitation in the Powder River basin, Montana and Wyoming, is an important variable when considering restoration of coal-strip-mining lands of the region. Two kriging analyses involving data at 60 stations were made--one assuming no drift in precipitation, and one a partial quadratic drift simulating orographic effects. Contour maps of estimates of mean annual precipitation were similar for both analyses, as were the corresponding contours of kriging variances. Block estimates of mean annual precipitation were made for two subbasins. Runoff estimates were 1-2 percent of the kriged block estimates. (USGS)

Comment on ‘A novel method for fast and robust estimation of fluorescence decay dynamics using constrained least-square deconvolution with Laguerre expansion’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongliang; Day-Uei Li, David

2017-02-01

This comment is to clarify that Poisson noise instead of Gaussian noise shall be included to assess the performances of least-squares deconvolution with Laguerre expansion (LSD-LE) for analysing fluorescence lifetime imaging data obtained from time-resolved systems. Moreover, we also corrected an equation in the paper. As the LSD-LE method is rapid and has the potential to be widely applied not only for diagnostic but for wider bioimaging applications, it is desirable to have precise noise models and equations.

An overview of longitudinal data analysis methods for neurological research.

PubMed

Locascio, Joseph J; Atri, Alireza

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a concise, broad and readily accessible overview of longitudinal data analysis methods, aimed to be a practical guide for clinical investigators in neurology. In general, we advise that older, traditional methods, including (1) simple regression of the dependent variable on a time measure, (2) analyzing a single summary subject level number that indexes changes for each subject and (3) a general linear model approach with a fixed-subject effect, should be reserved for quick, simple or preliminary analyses. We advocate the general use of mixed-random and fixed-effect regression models for analyses of most longitudinal clinical studies. Under restrictive situations or to provide validation, we recommend: (1) repeated-measure analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), (2) ANCOVA for two time points, (3) generalized estimating equations and (4) latent growth curve/structural equation models.

Median and Low-Flow Characteristics for Streams under Natural and Diverted Conditions, Northeast Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gingerich, Stephen B.

2005-01-01

Flow-duration statistics under natural (undiverted) and diverted flow conditions were estimated for gaged and ungaged sites on 21 streams in northeast Maui, Hawaii. The estimates were made using the optimal combination of continuous-record gaging-station data, low-flow measurements, and values determined from regression equations developed as part of this study. Estimated 50- and 95-percent flow duration statistics for streams are presented and the analyses done to develop and evaluate the methods used in estimating the statistics are described. Estimated streamflow statistics are presented for sites where various amounts of streamflow data are available as well as for locations where no data are available. Daily mean flows were used to determine flow-duration statistics for continuous-record stream-gaging stations in the study area following U.S. Geological Survey established standard methods. Duration discharges of 50- and 95-percent were determined from total flow and base flow for each continuous-record station. The index-station method was used to adjust all of the streamflow records to a common, long-term period. The gaging station on West Wailuaiki Stream (16518000) was chosen as the index station because of its record length (1914-2003) and favorable geographic location. Adjustments based on the index-station method resulted in decreases to the 50-percent duration total flow, 50-percent duration base flow, 95-percent duration total flow, and 95-percent duration base flow computed on the basis of short-term records that averaged 7, 3, 4, and 1 percent, respectively. For the drainage basin of each continuous-record gaged site and selected ungaged sites, morphometric, geologic, soil, and rainfall characteristics were quantified using Geographic Information System techniques. Regression equations relating the non-diverted streamflow statistics to basin characteristics of the gaged basins were developed using ordinary-least-squares regression analyses. Rainfall rate, maximum basin elevation, and the elongation ratio of the basin were the basin characteristics used in the final regression equations for 50-percent duration total flow and base flow. Rainfall rate and maximum basin elevation were used in the final regression equations for the 95-percent duration total flow and base flow. The relative errors between observed and estimated flows ranged from 10 to 20 percent for the 50-percent duration total flow and base flow, and from 29 to 56 percent for the 95-percent duration total flow and base flow. The regression equations developed for this study were used to determine the 50-percent duration total flow, 50-percent duration base flow, 95-percent duration total flow, and 95-percent duration base flow at selected ungaged diverted and undiverted sites. Estimated streamflow, prediction intervals, and standard errors were determined for 48 ungaged sites in the study area and for three gaged sites west of the study area. Relative errors were determined for sites where measured values of 95-percent duration discharge of total flow were available. East of Keanae Valley, the 95-percent duration discharge equation generally underestimated flow, and within and west of Keanae Valley, the equation generally overestimated flow. Reduction in 50- and 95-percent flow-duration values in stream reaches affected by diversions throughout the study area average 58 to 60 percent.

Predictors of Success in Bariatric Surgery: the Role of BMI and Pre-operative Comorbidities.

PubMed

da Cruz, Magda Rosa Ramos; Branco-Filho, Alcides José; Zaparolli, Marília Rizzon; Wagner, Nathalia Farinha; de Paula Pinto, José Simão; Campos, Antônio Carlos Ligocki; Taconeli, Cesar Augusto

2018-05-01

This is a retrospective review of 204 patients who underwent bariatric surgery. The impact of weight regain (WR), pre-operative comorbidities and BMI values on the recurrence of comorbidities was evaluated, and an equation was elaborated to estimate BMI at 5 years of bariatric surgery. Pre-operative data, after 1 year and after 5 years, was collected from the medical records. Descriptive analyses and bivariate hypothesis tests were performed first, and then, a generalised linear regression model with Tweedie distribution was adjusted. The hit rate and the Kendall coefficient of concordance (Kendall's W) of the equation were calculated. At the end, the Mann-Whitney test was performed between the BMI, WR and the presence of comorbidities, after a post-operative period of 5 years. The adjustment of the model resulted in an equation that estimates the mean value of BMI 5 years after surgery. The hit rate was 82.35% and the value of Kendall's W was 0.85 for the equation. It was found that patients with comorbidities presented a higher median WR (10.13%) and a higher mean BMI (30.09 kg/m 2 ) 5 years after the surgery. It is concluded that the equation is useful for estimating the mean BMI at 5 years of surgery and that patients with low pre-operative HDL and folic acid levels, with depression and/or anxiety and a higher BMI, have a higher BMI at 5 years of surgery and higher incidence of comorbid return and dissatisfaction with post-operative results.

Debris flow impact estimation on a rigid barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagnon, Federico; Segalini, Andrea

2016-07-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse debris flow impact against rigid and undrained barrier in order to propose a new formulation for the estimation of acting force after the flow impact to safe design protection structures. For this reason, this work concentrates on the flow impact, by performing a series of small scale tests in a specifically created flume. Flow characteristics (flow height and velocity) and applied loads (dynamic and static) on barrier were measured using four ultrasonic devices, four load cells and a contact surface pressure gauge. The results obtained were compared with main existing models and a new equation is proposed. Furthermore, a brief review of the small scale theory was provided to analyse the scale effects that can affect the results.

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide acceptable results. The RAR also was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the PK1.5., PK2, and PK2.33 for the three CMR stations that lacked suitable peak-flow records. Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites also were derived. Regression analyses that relate individual streamflow characteristics to various basin and climatic characteristics for gaging stations were performed to develop regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Final equations for the annual Q.50, Q.20, and QM are reported. Acceptable equations also were developed for estimating QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July, and Q.50, Q.20, and QM on an annual basis. However, equations for QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July were determined to be less consistent and reliable than the use of estimation coefficients applied to the regression equation results for the annual QM. Acceptable regression equations also were developed for the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33.

Relationship between water quality and macro-scale parameters (land use, erosion, geology, and population density) in the Siminehrood River Basin.

PubMed

Bostanmaneshrad, Farshid; Partani, Sadegh; Noori, Roohollah; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter; Berndtsson, Ronny; Adamowski, Jan Franklin

2018-10-15

To date, few studies have investigated the simultaneous effects of macro-scale parameters (MSPs) such as land use, population density, geology, and erosion layers on micro-scale water quality variables (MSWQVs). This research focused on an evaluation of the relationship between MSPs and MSWQVs in the Siminehrood River Basin, Iran. In addition, we investigated the importance of water particle travel time (hydrological distance) on this relationship. The MSWQVs included 13 physicochemical and biochemical parameters observed at 15 stations during three seasons. Primary screening was performed by utilizing three multivariate statistical analyses (Pearson's correlation, cluster and discriminant analyses) in seven series of observed data. These series included three separate seasonal data, three two-season data, and aggregated three-season data for investigation of relationships between MSPs and MSWQVs. Coupled data (pairs of MSWQVs and MSPs) repeated in at least two out of three statistical analyses were selected for final screening. The primary screening results demonstrated significant relationships between land use and phosphorus, total solids and turbidity, erosion levels and electrical conductivity, and erosion and total solids. Furthermore, water particle travel time effects were considered through three geographical pattern definitions of distance for each MSP by using two weighting methods. To find effective MSP factors on MSWQVs, a multivariate linear regression analysis was employed. Then, preliminary equations that estimated MSWQVs were developed. The preliminary equations were modified to adaptive equations to obtain the final models. The final models indicated that a new metric, referred to as hydrological distance, provided better MSWQV estimation and water quality prediction compared to the National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stature Estimation from Lower Limb Anthropometry using Linear Regression Analysis: A Study on the Malaysian Population.

PubMed

Abu Bakar, S N; Aspalilah, A; AbdelNasser, I; Nurliza, A; Hairuliza, M J; Swarhib, M; Das, S; Mohd Nor, F

2017-01-01

Stature is one of the characteristics that could be used to identify human, besides age, sex and racial affiliation. This is useful when the body found is either dismembered, mutilated or even decomposed, and helps in narrowing down the missing person's identity. The main aim of the present study was to construct regression functions for stature estimation by using lower limb bones in the Malaysian population. The sample comprised 87 adult individuals (81 males, 6 females) aged between 20 to 79 years. The parameters such as thigh length, lower leg length, leg length, foot length, foot height and foot breadth were measured. They were measured by a ruler and measuring tape. Statistical analysis involved independent t-test to analyse the difference between lower limbs in male and female. The Pearson's correlation test was used to analyse correlations between lower limb parameters and stature, and the linear regressions were used to form equations. The paired t-test was used to compare between actual stature and estimated stature by using the equations formed. Using independent t-test, there was a significant difference (p< 0.05) in the measurement between males and females with regard to leg length, thigh length, lower leg length, foot length and foot breadth. The thigh length, leg length and foot length were observed to have strong correlations with stature with p= 0.75, p= 0.81 and p= 0.69, respectively. Linear regressions were formulated for stature estimation. Paired t-test showed no significant difference between actual stature and estimated stature. It is concluded that regression functions can be used to estimate stature to identify skeletal remains in the Malaysia population.

Revised techniques for estimating peak discharges from channel width in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.; Omang, R.J.

1987-01-01

This study was conducted to develop new estimating equations based on channel width and the updated flood frequency curves of previous investigations. Simple regression equations for estimating peak discharges with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10 , 25, 50, and 100 years were developed for seven regions in Montana. The standard errors of estimates for the equations that use active channel width as the independent variables ranged from 30% to 87%. The standard errors of estimate for the equations that use bankfull width as the independent variable ranged from 34% to 92%. The smallest standard errors generally occurred in the prediction equations for the 2-yr flood, 5-yr flood, and 10-yr flood, and the largest standard errors occurred in the prediction equations for the 100-yr flood. The equations that use active channel width and the equations that use bankfull width were determined to be about equally reliable in five regions. In the West Region, the equations that use bankfull width were slightly more reliable than those based on active channel width, whereas in the East-Central Region the equations that use active channel width were slightly more reliable than those based on bankfull width. Compared with similar equations previously developed, the standard errors of estimate for the new equations are substantially smaller in three regions and substantially larger in two regions. Limitations on the use of the estimating equations include: (1) The equations are based on stable conditions of channel geometry and prevailing water and sediment discharge; (2) The measurement of channel width requires a site visit, preferably by a person with experience in the method, and involves appreciable measurement errors; (3) Reliability of results from the equations for channel widths beyond the range of definition is unknown. In spite of the limitations, the estimating equations derived in this study are considered to be as reliable as estimating equations based on basin and climatic variables. Because the two types of estimating equations are independent, results from each can be weighted inversely proportional to their variances, and averaged. The weighted average estimate has a variance less than either individual estimate. (Author 's abstract)

A novel approach for estimating sugar and alcohol concentrations in wines using refractometer and hydrometer.

PubMed

Son, H S; Hong, Y S; Park, W M; Yu, M A; Lee, C H

2009-03-01

To estimate true Brix and alcoholic strength of must and wines without distillation, a novel approach using a refractometer and a hydrometer was developed. Initial Brix (I.B.), apparent refractometer Brix (A.R.), and apparent hydrometer Brix (A.H.) of must were measured by refractometer and hydrometer, respectively. Alcohol content (A) was determined with a hydrometer after distillation and true Brix (T.B.) was measured in distilled wines using a refractometer. Strong proportional correlations among A.R., A.H., T.B., and A in sugar solutions containing varying alcohol concentrations were observed in preliminary experiments. Similar proportional relationships among the parameters were also observed in must, which is a far more complex system than the sugar solution. To estimate T.B. and A of must during alcoholic fermentation, a total of 6 planar equations were empirically derived from the relationships among the experimental parameters. The empirical equations were then tested to estimate T.B. and A in 17 wine products, and resulted in good estimations of both quality factors. This novel approach was rapid, easy, and practical for use in routine analyses or for monitoring quality of must during fermentation and final wine products in a winery and/or laboratory.

Prediction of elemental creep. [steady state and cyclic data from regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, J. W.; Rummler, D. R.

1975-01-01

Cyclic and steady-state creep tests were performed to provide data which were used to develop predictive equations. These equations, describing creep as a function of stress, temperature, and time, were developed through the use of a least squares regression analyses computer program for both the steady-state and cyclic data sets. Comparison of the data from the two types of tests, revealed that there was no significant difference between the cyclic and steady-state creep strains for the L-605 sheet under the experimental conditions investigated (for the same total time at load). Attempts to develop a single linear equation describing the combined steady-state and cyclic creep data resulted in standard errors of estimates higher than obtained for the individual data sets. A proposed approach to predict elemental creep in metals uses the cyclic creep equation and a computer program which applies strain and time hardening theories of creep accumulation.

Cystatin C-based glomerular filtration rate associates more closely with mortality than creatinine-based or combined glomerular filtration rate equations in unselected patients.

PubMed

Helmersson-Karlqvist, Johanna; Ärnlöv, Johan; Larsson, Anders

2016-10-01

Decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is an important cardiovascular risk factor, but estimated GFR (eGFR) may differ depending on whether it is based on creatinine or cystatin C. A combined creatinine/cystatin C equation has recently been shown to best estimate GFR; however, the benefits of using the combined equation for risk prediction in routine clinical care have been less studied. This study compares mortality risk prediction by eGFR using the combined creatinine/cystatin C equation (CKD-EPI), a sole creatinine equation (CKD-EPI) and a sole cystatin C equation (CAPA), respectively, using assays that are traceable to international calibrators. All patients analysed for both creatinine and cystatin C from the same blood sample tube (n = 13,054) during 2005-2007 in Uppsala University Hospital Laboratory were divided into eGFR risk categories>60, 30-60 and <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by each eGFR equation. During follow-up (median 4.6 years), 4398 participants died, of which 1396 deaths were due to cardiovascular causes. Reduced eGFR was significantly associated with death as assessed by all eGFR equations. The net reclassification improvement (NRI) for the combination equation compared with the sole creatinine equation was 0.10 (p < 0.001) for all-cause mortality and 0.08 (p < 0.001) for cardiovascular mortality, indicating improved reclassification. In contrast, NRI for the combination equation, compared with the sole cystatin C equation, was -0.06 (p < 0.001) for all-cause mortality and -0.02 (p = 0.032) for cardiovascular mortality, indicating a worsened reclassification. In routine clinical care, cystatin C-based eGFR was more closely associated with mortality compared with both creatinine-based eGFR and creatinine/cystatin C-based eGFR. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Roberts, J.W.

1990-01-01

Multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating flood-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations range from 33.4% to 41.4%. Peak discharge estimates determined by log-Pearson Type III analysis using data collected through the 1987 water year are reported for 275 streamflow-gaging stations. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to divide the State into three regions and to identify a set of basin characteristics that help explain station-to- station variation in the log-Pearson estimates. Contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and storage area were identified as suitable explanatory variables. Generalized least-square procedures, which include historical flow data and account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations, spatial correlation among gaging station records, and variable lengths of station record were used to estimate the regression parameters. Weighted peak-discharge estimates computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III and regression estimates are reported for each station. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site located on the same stream. Limitations and shortcomings cited in an earlier report on the magnitude and frequency of floods in Ohio are addressed in this study. Geographic bias is no longer evident for the Maumee River basin of northwestern Ohio. No bias is found to be associated with the forested-area characteristic for the range used in the regression analysis (0.0 to 99.0%), nor is this characteristic significant in explaining peak discharges. Surface-mined area likewise is not significant in explaining peak discharges, and the regression equations are not biased when applied to basins having approximately 30% or less surface-mined area. Analyses of residuals indicate that the equations tend to overestimate flood-peak discharges for basins having approximately 30% or more surface-mined area. (USGS)

GFR Estimation: From Physiology to Public Health

PubMed Central

Levey, Andrew S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Coresh, Josef

2014-01-01

Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for clinical practice, research, and public health. Appropriate interpretation of estimated GFR (eGFR) requires understanding the principles of physiology, laboratory medicine, epidemiology and biostatistics used in the development and validation of GFR estimating equations. Equations developed in diverse populations are less biased at higher GFR than equations developed in CKD populations and are more appropriate for general use. Equations that include multiple endogenous filtration markers are more precise than equations including a single filtration marker. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations are the most accurate GFR estimating equations that have been evaluated in large, diverse populations and are applicable for general clinical use. The 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate in estimating GFR and prognosis than the 2006 Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation and provides lower estimates of prevalence of decreased eGFR. It is useful as a “first” test for decreased eGFR and should replace the MDRD Study equation for routine reporting of serum creatinine–based eGFR by clinical laboratories. The 2012 CKD-EPI cystatin C equation is as accurate as the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation in estimating eGFR, does not require specification of race, and may be more accurate in patients with decreased muscle mass. The 2012 CKD-EPI creatinine–cystatin C equation is more accurate than the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine and 2012 CKD-EPI cystatin C equations and is useful as a confirmatory test for decreased eGFR as determined by an equation based on serum creatinine. Further improvement in GFR estimating equations will require development in more broadly representative populations, including diverse racial and ethnic groups, use of multiple filtration markers, and evaluation using statistical techniques to compare eGFR to “true GFR”. PMID:24485147

Relationship Satisfaction and Dyadic Coping in Couples with a Child with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sim, Angela; Cordier, Reinie; Vaz, Sharmila; Parsons, Richard; Falkmer, Torbjörn

2017-01-01

Dyadic coping strategies may play a pivotal role in relationship satisfaction and explain why some couples adapt positively to the challenges associated with raising a child with ASD and others do not. Survey data from 127 caregivers of a child with ASD were used in generalized estimating equation analyses to investigate the factors associated…

Educational Differences in Associations of Noticing Anti-Tobacco Information with Smoking-Related Attitudes and Quit Intentions: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Europe Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Springvloet, L.; Willemsen, M. C.; Mons, U.; van den Putte, B.; Kunst, A. E.; Guignard, R.; Hummel, K.; Allwright, S.; Siahpush, M.; de Vries, H.; Nagelhout, G. E.

2015-01-01

This study examined educational differences in associations of noticing anti-tobacco information with smoking-related attitudes and quit intentions among adult smokers. Longitudinal data (N = 7571) from two waves of six countries of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Europe Surveys were included. Generalized estimating equation analyses and…

Techniques for Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Flows on Small Streams in Minnesota Based on Data through Water Year 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Kocian, Matthew J.

2010-01-01

Knowledge of the peak flow of floods of a given recurrence interval is essential for regulation and planning of water resources and for design of bridges, culverts, and dams along Minnesota's rivers and streams. Statistical techniques are needed to estimate peak flow at ungaged sites because long-term streamflow records are available at relatively few places. Because of the need to have up-to-date peak-flow frequency information in order to estimate peak flows at ungaged sites, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a peak-flow frequency study in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are presented for 330 streamflow-gaging stations in Minnesota and adjacent areas in Iowa and South Dakota based on data through water year 2005. The peak-flow frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses to develop equations relating peak flows for selected recurrence intervals to various basin and climatic characteristics. Two statistically derived techniques-regional regression equation and region of influence regression-can be used to estimate peak flow on ungaged streams smaller than 3,000 square miles in Minnesota. Regional regression equations were developed for selected recurrence intervals in each of six regions in Minnesota: A (northwestern), B (north central and east central), C (northeastern), D (west central and south central), E (southwestern), and F (southeastern). The regression equations can be used to estimate peak flows at ungaged sites. The region of influence regression technique dynamically selects streamflow-gaging stations with characteristics similar to a site of interest. Thus, the region of influence regression technique allows use of a potentially unique set of gaging stations for estimating peak flow at each site of interest. Two methods of selecting streamflow-gaging stations, similarity and proximity, can be used for the region of influence regression technique. The regional regression equation technique is the preferred technique as an estimate of peak flow in all six regions for ungaged sites. The region of influence regression technique is not appropriate for regions C, E, and F because the interrelations of some characteristics of those regions do not agree with the interrelations throughout the rest of the State. Both the similarity and proximity methods for the region of influence technique can be used in the other regions (A, B, and D) to provide additional estimates of peak flow. The peak-flow-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for selected streamflow-gaging stations and regional peak-flow regression equations are included in this report.

On parametrized cold dense matter equation-of-state inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Thomas E.; Raaijmakers, Geert; Watts, Anna L.

2018-07-01

Constraining the equation of state of cold dense matter in compact stars is a major science goal for observing programmes being conducted using X-ray, radio, and gravitational wave telescopes. We discuss Bayesian hierarchical inference of parametrized dense matter equations of state. In particular, we generalize and examine two inference paradigms from the literature: (i) direct posterior equation-of-state parameter estimation, conditioned on observations of a set of rotating compact stars; and (ii) indirect parameter estimation, via transformation of an intermediary joint posterior distribution of exterior spacetime parameters (such as gravitational masses and coordinate equatorial radii). We conclude that the former paradigm is not only tractable for large-scale analyses, but is principled and flexible from a Bayesian perspective while the latter paradigm is not. The thematic problem of Bayesian prior definition emerges as the crux of the difference between these paradigms. The second paradigm should in general only be considered as an ill-defined approach to the problem of utilizing archival posterior constraints on exterior spacetime parameters; we advocate for an alternative approach whereby such information is repurposed as an approximative likelihood function. We also discuss why conditioning on a piecewise-polytropic equation-of-state model - currently standard in the field of dense matter study - can easily violate conditions required for transformation of a probability density distribution between spaces of exterior (spacetime) and interior (source matter) parameters.

On parametrised cold dense matter equation of state inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Thomas E.; Raaijmakers, Geert; Watts, Anna L.

2018-04-01

Constraining the equation of state of cold dense matter in compact stars is a major science goal for observing programmes being conducted using X-ray, radio, and gravitational wave telescopes. We discuss Bayesian hierarchical inference of parametrised dense matter equations of state. In particular we generalise and examine two inference paradigms from the literature: (i) direct posterior equation of state parameter estimation, conditioned on observations of a set of rotating compact stars; and (ii) indirect parameter estimation, via transformation of an intermediary joint posterior distribution of exterior spacetime parameters (such as gravitational masses and coordinate equatorial radii). We conclude that the former paradigm is not only tractable for large-scale analyses, but is principled and flexible from a Bayesian perspective whilst the latter paradigm is not. The thematic problem of Bayesian prior definition emerges as the crux of the difference between these paradigms. The second paradigm should in general only be considered as an ill-defined approach to the problem of utilising archival posterior constraints on exterior spacetime parameters; we advocate for an alternative approach whereby such information is repurposed as an approximative likelihood function. We also discuss why conditioning on a piecewise-polytropic equation of state model - currently standard in the field of dense matter study - can easily violate conditions required for transformation of a probability density distribution between spaces of exterior (spacetime) and interior (source matter) parameters.

Synthesizing Risk from Summary Evidence Across Multiple Risk Factors.

PubMed

Shrier, Ian; Colditz, Graham A; Steele, Russell J

2018-07-01

Although meta-analyses provide summary effect estimates that help advise patient care, patients often want to compare their overall health to the general population. The Harvard Cancer Risk Index was published in 2004 and uses risk ratio estimates and prevalence estimates from original studies across many risk factors to provide an answer to this question. However, the published version of the formula only uses dichotomous risk factors and its derivation was not provided. The objective of this brief report was to provide the derivation of a more general form of the equation that allows the incorporation of risk factors with three or more levels.

An Overview of Longitudinal Data Analysis Methods for Neurological Research

PubMed Central

Locascio, Joseph J.; Atri, Alireza

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a concise, broad and readily accessible overview of longitudinal data analysis methods, aimed to be a practical guide for clinical investigators in neurology. In general, we advise that older, traditional methods, including (1) simple regression of the dependent variable on a time measure, (2) analyzing a single summary subject level number that indexes changes for each subject and (3) a general linear model approach with a fixed-subject effect, should be reserved for quick, simple or preliminary analyses. We advocate the general use of mixed-random and fixed-effect regression models for analyses of most longitudinal clinical studies. Under restrictive situations or to provide validation, we recommend: (1) repeated-measure analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), (2) ANCOVA for two time points, (3) generalized estimating equations and (4) latent growth curve/structural equation models. PMID:22203825

Use of finite-difference arrays of observation wells to estimate evapotranspiration from ground water in the Arkansas River Valley, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weeks, Edwin P.; Sorey, M.L.

1973-01-01

A method to determine evapotranspiration from ground water was tested at four sites in the flood plain of the Arkansas River in Colorado. Approximate ground-water budgets were obtained by analyzing water-level data from observation wells installed in five-point arrays. The analyses were based on finite difference approximations of the differential equation describing ground-water flow. Data from the sites were divided into two groups by season. It was assumed that water levels during the dormant season were unaffected by evapotranspiration of ground water or by recharge, collectively termed 'accretion.' Regression analyses of these data were made to provide an equation for separating the effects of changes in aquifer storage and of aquifer heterogeneity from those due to accretion during the growing season. The data collected during the growing season were thus analyzed to determine accretion.

Some estimation formulae for continuous time-invariant linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, G. J.; Sidhu, G. S.

1975-01-01

In this brief paper we examine a Riccati equation decomposition due to Reid and Lainiotis and apply the result to the continuous time-invariant linear filtering problem. Exploitation of the time-invariant structure leads to integration-free covariance recursions which are of use in covariance analyses and in filter implementations. A super-linearly convergent iterative solution to the algebraic Riccati equation (ARE) is developed. The resulting algorithm, arranged in a square-root form, is thought to be numerically stable and competitive with other ARE solution methods. Certain covariance relations that are relevant to the fixed-point and fixed-lag smoothing problems are also discussed.

Stature in archeological samples from central Italy: methodological issues and diachronic changes.

PubMed

Giannecchini, Monica; Moggi-Cecchi, Jacopo

2008-03-01

Stature reconstructions from skeletal remains are usually obtained through regression equations based on the relationship between height and limb bone length. Different equations have been employed to reconstruct stature in skeletal samples, but this is the first study to provide a systematic analysis of the reliability of the different methods for Italian historical samples. Aims of this article are: 1) to analyze the reliability of different regression methods to estimate stature for populations living in Central Italy from the Iron Age to Medieval times; 2) to search for trends in stature over this time period by applying the most reliable regression method. Long bone measurements were collected from 1,021 individuals (560 males, 461 females), from 66 archeological sites for males and 54 for females. Three time periods were identified: Iron Age, Roman period, and Medieval period. To determine the most appropriate equation to reconstruct stature the Delta parameter of Gini (Memorie di metodologia statistica. Milano: Giuffre A. 1939), in which stature estimates derived from different limb bones are compared, was employed. The equations proposed by Pearson (Philos Trans R Soc London 192 (1899) 169-244) and Trotter and Gleser for Afro-Americans (Am J Phys Anthropol 10 (1952) 463-514; Am J Phys Anthropol 47 (1977) 355-356) provided the most consistent estimates when applied to our sample. We then used the equation by Pearson for further analyses. Results indicate a reduction in stature in the transition from the Iron Age to the Roman period, and a subsequent increase in the transition from the Roman period to the Medieval period. Changes of limb lengths over time were more pronounced in the distal than in the proximal elements in both limbs. 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Estimates of thermochemical relaxation lengths behind normal shock waves relevant to manned lunar and Mars return missions, the aeroassist flight experiment, and Mars entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howe, John T.

1991-01-01

Thermochemical relaxation distances behind the strong normal shock waves associated with vehicles that enter the Earth atmosphere upon returning from a manned lunar or Mars mission are estimated. The relaxation distances for a Mars entry are estimated as well, in order to highlight the extent of the relaxation phenomena early in currently envisioned space exploration studies. The thermochemical relaxation length for the Aeroassist Flight Experiment is also considered. These estimates provide an indication as to whether finite relaxation needs to be considered in subsequent detailed analyses. For the Mars entry, relaxation phenomena that are fully coupled to the flow field equations are used. The relaxation-distance estimates can be scaled to flight conditions other than those discussed.

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

2017-05-22

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Multiple Imputation of Cognitive Performance as a Repeatedly Measured Outcome

PubMed Central

Rawlings, Andreea M.; Sang, Yingying; Sharrett, A. Richey; Coresh, Josef; Griswold, Michael; Kucharska-Newton, Anna M.; Palta, Priya; Wruck, Lisa M.; Gross, Alden L.; Deal, Jennifer A.; Power, Melinda C.; Bandeen-Roche, Karen

2016-01-01

Background Longitudinal studies of cognitive performance are sensitive to dropout, as participants experiencing cognitive deficits are less likely to attend study visits, which may bias estimated associations between exposures of interest and cognitive decline. Multiple imputation is a powerful tool for handling missing data, however its use for missing cognitive outcome measures in longitudinal analyses remains limited. Methods We use multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) to impute cognitive performance scores of participants who did not attend the 2011-2013 exam of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We examined the validity of imputed scores using observed and simulated data under varying assumptions. We examined differences in the estimated association between diabetes at baseline and 20-year cognitive decline with and without imputed values. Lastly, we discuss how different analytic methods (mixed models and models fit using generalized estimate equations) and choice of for whom to impute result in different estimands. Results Validation using observed data showed MICE produced unbiased imputations. Simulations showed a substantial reduction in the bias of the 20-year association between diabetes and cognitive decline comparing MICE (3-4% bias) to analyses of available data only (16-23% bias) in a construct where missingness was strongly informative but realistic. Associations between diabetes and 20-year cognitive decline were substantially stronger with MICE than in available-case analyses. Conclusions Our study suggests when informative data are available for non-examined participants, MICE can be an effective tool for imputing cognitive performance and improving assessment of cognitive decline, though careful thought should be given to target imputation population and analytic model chosen, as they may yield different estimands. PMID:27619926

Limits of applicability of a two-temperature model under nonuniform heating of metal by an ultrashort laser pulse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polyakov, D S; Yakovlev, E B

The heating of metals (silver and aluminium) by ultrashort laser pulses is analysed proceeding from a spatially nonuniform kinetic equation for the electron distribution function. The electron subsystem thermalisation is estimated in a wide range of absorbed pulse energy density. The limits of applicability are determined for the two-temperature model. (interaction of laser radiation with matter)

Utility of Equations to Estimate Peak Oxygen Uptake and Work Rate From a 6-Minute Walk Test in Patients With COPD in a Clinical Setting.

PubMed

Kirkham, Amy A; Pauhl, Katherine E; Elliott, Robyn M; Scott, Jen A; Doria, Silvana C; Davidson, Hanan K; Neil-Sztramko, Sarah E; Campbell, Kristin L; Camp, Pat G

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of equations that use the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) results to estimate peak oxygen uptake ((Equation is included in full-text article.)o2) and peak work rate with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in a clinical setting. This study included a systematic review to identify published equations estimating peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate in watts in COPD patients and a retrospective chart review of data from a hospital-based pulmonary rehabilitation program. The following variables were abstracted from the records of 42 consecutively enrolled COPD patients: measured peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate achieved during a cycle ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise test, 6MWT distance, age, sex, weight, height, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, forced vital capacity, and lung diffusion capacity. Estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate were estimated from 6MWT distance using published equations. The error associated with using estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 or peak work to prescribe aerobic exercise intensities of 60% and 80% was calculated. Eleven equations from 6 studies were identified. Agreement between estimated and measured values was poor to moderate (intraclass correlation coefficients = 0.11-0.63). The error associated with using estimated peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 or peak work rate to prescribe exercise intensities of 60% and 80% of measured values ranged from mean differences of 12 to 35 and 16 to 47 percentage points, respectively. There is poor to moderate agreement between measured peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate and estimations from equations that use 6MWT distance, and the use of the estimated values for prescription of aerobic exercise intensity would result in large error. Equations estimating peak (Equation is included in full-text article.)o2 and peak work rate are of low utility for prescribing exercise intensity in pulmonary rehabilitation programs.

Greenhouse gases inventory and carbon balance of two dairy systems obtained from two methane-estimation methods.

PubMed

Cunha, C S; Lopes, N L; Veloso, C M; Jacovine, L A G; Tomich, T R; Pereira, L G R; Marcondes, M I

2016-11-15

The adoption of carbon inventories for dairy farms in tropical countries based on models developed from animals and diets of temperate climates is questionable. Thus, the objectives of this study were to estimate enteric methane (CH4) emissions through the SF6 tracer gas technique and through equations proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 and to calculate the inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from two dairy systems. In addition, the carbon balance of these properties was estimated using enteric CH4 emissions obtained using both methodologies. In trial 1, the CH4 emissions were estimated from seven Holstein dairy cattle categories based on the SF6 tracer gas technique and on IPCC equations. The categories used in the study were prepubertal heifers (n=6); pubertal heifers (n=4); pregnant heifers (n=5); high-producing (n=6); medium-producing (n=5); low-producing (n=4) and dry cows (n=5). Enteric methane emission was higher for the category comprising prepubertal heifers when estimated by the equations proposed by the IPCC Tier 2. However, higher CH4 emissions were estimated by the SF6 technique in the categories including medium- and high-producing cows and dry cows. Pubertal heifers, pregnant heifers, and low-producing cows had equal CH4 emissions as estimated by both methods. In trial 2, two dairy farms were monitored for one year to identify all activities that contributed in any way to GHG emissions. The total emission from Farm 1 was 3.21t CO2e/animal/yr, of which 1.63t corresponded to enteric CH4. Farm 2 emitted 3.18t CO2e/animal/yr, with 1.70t of enteric CH4. IPCC estimations can underestimate CH4 emissions from some categories while overestimate others. However, considering the whole property, these discrepancies are offset and we would submit that the equations suggested by the IPCC properly estimate the total CH4 emission and carbon balance of the properties. Thus, the IPCC equations should be utilized with caution, and the herd composition should be analysed at the property level. When the carbon stock in pasture and other crops was considered, the carbon balance suggested that both farms are sustainable for GHG, by both methods. On the other hand, carbon balance without carbon stock, by both methods, suggests that farms emit more carbon than the system is capable of stock. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Skinfold Prediction Equations Fail to Provide an Accurate Estimate of Body Composition in Elite Rugby Union Athletes of Caucasian and Polynesian Ethnicity.

PubMed

Zemski, Adam J; Broad, Elizabeth M; Slater, Gary J

2018-01-01

Body composition in elite rugby union athletes is routinely assessed using surface anthropometry, which can be utilized to provide estimates of absolute body composition using regression equations. This study aims to assess the ability of available skinfold equations to estimate body composition in elite rugby union athletes who have unique physique traits and divergent ethnicity. The development of sport-specific and ethnicity-sensitive equations was also pursued. Forty-three male international Australian rugby union athletes of Caucasian and Polynesian descent underwent surface anthropometry and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) assessment. Body fat percent (BF%) was estimated using five previously developed equations and compared to DXA measures. Novel sport and ethnicity-sensitive prediction equations were developed using forward selection multiple regression analysis. Existing skinfold equations provided unsatisfactory estimates of BF% in elite rugby union athletes, with all equations demonstrating a 95% prediction interval in excess of 5%. The equations tended to underestimate BF% at low levels of adiposity, whilst overestimating BF% at higher levels of adiposity, regardless of ethnicity. The novel equations created explained a similar amount of variance to those previously developed (Caucasians 75%, Polynesians 90%). The use of skinfold equations, including the created equations, cannot be supported to estimate absolute body composition. Until a population-specific equation is established that can be validated to precisely estimate body composition, it is advocated to use a proven method, such as DXA, when absolute measures of lean and fat mass are desired, and raw anthropometry data routinely to derive an estimate of body composition change.

Hydrologic and Hydraulic Analyses of Selected Streams in Lorain County, Ohio, 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, K. Scott; Ostheimer, Chad J.; Whitehead, Matthew T.

2003-01-01

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses were done for selected reaches of nine streams in Lorain County Ohio. To assess the alternatives for flood-damage mitigation, the Lorain County Engineer and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a cooperative study to investigate aspects of the hydrology and hydraulics of the nine streams. Historical streamflow data and regional regression equations were used to estimate instantaneous peak discharges for floods having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Explanatory variables used in the regression equations were drainage area, main-channel slope, and storage area. Drainage areas of the nine stream reaches studied ranged from 1.80 to 19.3 square miles. The step-backwater model HEC-RAS was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for the 10-year-recurrence-interval (10-year) flood along a selected reach of each stream. The water-surface pro-file information was used then to generate digital mapping of flood-plain boundaries. The analyses indicate that at the 10-year flood elevation, road overflow results at numerous hydraulic structures along the nine streams.

Estimating GFR Among Participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

PubMed Central

Anderson, Amanda Hyre; Yang, Wei; Hsu, Chi-yuan; Joffe, Marshall M.; Leonard, Mary B.; Xie, Dawei; Chen, Jing; Greene, Tom; Jaar, Bernard G.; Kao, Patricia; Kusek, John W.; Landis, J. Richard; Lash, James P.; Townsend, Raymond R.; Weir, Matthew R.; Feldman, Harold I.

2012-01-01

Background Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is considered the best measure of kidney function, but repeated assessment is not feasible in most research studies. Study Design Cross-sectional study of 1,433 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study (i.e., the GFR subcohort) to derive an internal GFR estimating equation using a split sample approach. Setting & Participants Adults from 7 US metropolitan areas with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease; 48% had diabetes and 37% were black. Index Test CRIC GFR estimating equation Reference Test or Outcome Urinary 125I-iothalamate clearance testing (measured GFR) Other Measurements Laboratory measures including serum creatinine and cystatin C, and anthropometrics Results In the validation dataset, the model that included serum creatinine, serum cystatin C, age, gender, and race was the most parsimonious and similarly predictive of mGFR compared to a model additionally including bioelectrical impedance analysis phase angle, CRIC clinical center, and 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion. Specifically, the root mean square errors for the separate model were 0.207 vs. 0.202, respectively. The performance of the CRIC GFR estimating equation was most accurate among the subgroups of younger participants, men, non-blacks, non-Hispanics, those without diabetes, those with body mass index <30 kg/m2, those with higher 24-hour urine creatinine excretion, those with lower levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and those with higher mGFR. Limitations Urinary clearance of 125I-iothalamate is an imperfect measure of true GFR; cystatin C is not standardized to certified reference material; lack of external validation; small sample sizes limit analyses of subgroup-specific predictors. Conclusions The CRIC GFR estimating equation predicts measured GFR accurately in the CRIC cohort using serum creatinine and cystatin C, age, gender, and race. Its performance was best among younger and healthier participants. PMID:22658574

Sample size determination for GEE analyses of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials.

PubMed

Li, Fan; Turner, Elizabeth L; Preisser, John S

2018-06-19

In stepped wedge cluster randomized trials, intact clusters of individuals switch from control to intervention from a randomly assigned period onwards. Such trials are becoming increasingly popular in health services research. When a closed cohort is recruited from each cluster for longitudinal follow-up, proper sample size calculation should account for three distinct types of intraclass correlations: the within-period, the inter-period, and the within-individual correlations. Setting the latter two correlation parameters to be equal accommodates cross-sectional designs. We propose sample size procedures for continuous and binary responses within the framework of generalized estimating equations that employ a block exchangeable within-cluster correlation structure defined from the distinct correlation types. For continuous responses, we show that the intraclass correlations affect power only through two eigenvalues of the correlation matrix. We demonstrate that analytical power agrees well with simulated power for as few as eight clusters, when data are analyzed using bias-corrected estimating equations for the correlation parameters concurrently with a bias-corrected sandwich variance estimator. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Relative dynamics and motion control of nanosatellite formation flying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimnoo, Ammarin; Hiraki, Koju

2016-04-01

Orbit selection is a necessary factor in nanosatellite formation mission design/meanwhile, to keep the formation, it is necessary to consume fuel. Therefore, the best orbit design for nanosatellite formation flying should be one that requires the minimum fuel consumption. The purpose of this paper is to analyse orbit selection with respect to the minimum fuel consumption, to provide a convenient way to estimate the fuel consumption for keeping nanosatellite formation flying and to present a simplified method of formation control. The formation structure is disturbed by J2 gravitational perturbation and other perturbing accelerations such as atmospheric drag. First, Gauss' Variation Equations (GVE) are used to estimate the essential ΔV due to the J2 perturbation and atmospheric drag. The essential ΔV presents information on which orbit is good with respect to the minimum fuel consumption. Then, the linear equations which account for J2 gravitational perturbation of Schweighart-Sedwick are presented and used to estimate the fuel consumption to maintain the formation structure. Finally, the relative dynamics motion is presented as well as a simplified motion control of formation structure by using GVE.

Weather adjustment using seemingly unrelated regression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noll, T.A.

1995-05-01

Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) is a system estimation technique that accounts for time-contemporaneous correlation between individual equations within a system of equations. SUR is suited to weather adjustment estimations when the estimation is: (1) composed of a system of equations and (2) the system of equations represents either different weather stations, different sales sectors or a combination of different weather stations and different sales sectors. SUR utilizes the cross-equation error values to develop more accurate estimates of the system coefficients than are obtained using ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimation. SUR estimates can be generated using a variety of statistical software packagesmore » including MicroTSP and SAS.« less

Estimating Soil Hydraulic Parameters using Gradient Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P. K.; Tripathi, S.

2017-12-01

The conventional way of estimating parameters of a differential equation is to minimize the error between the observations and their estimates. The estimates are produced from forward solution (numerical or analytical) of differential equation assuming a set of parameters. Parameter estimation using the conventional approach requires high computational cost, setting-up of initial and boundary conditions, and formation of difference equations in case the forward solution is obtained numerically. Gaussian process based approaches like Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation (GPODE) and Adaptive Gradient Matching (AGM) have been developed to estimate the parameters of Ordinary Differential Equations without explicitly solving them. Claims have been made that these approaches can straightforwardly be extended to Partial Differential Equations; however, it has been never demonstrated. This study extends AGM approach to PDEs and applies it for estimating parameters of Richards equation. Unlike the conventional approach, the AGM approach does not require setting-up of initial and boundary conditions explicitly, which is often difficult in real world application of Richards equation. The developed methodology was applied to synthetic soil moisture data. It was seen that the proposed methodology can estimate the soil hydraulic parameters correctly and can be a potential alternative to the conventional method.

Estimating Finite Rate of Population Increase for Sharks Based on Vital Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Kwang-Ming; Chin, Chien-Pang; Chen, Chun-Hui; Chang, Jui-Han

2015-01-01

The vital parameter data for 62 stocks, covering 38 species, collected from the literature, including parameters of age, growth, and reproduction, were log-transformed and analyzed using multivariate analyses. Three groups were identified and empirical equations were developed for each to describe the relationships between the predicted finite rates of population increase (λ’) and the vital parameters, maximum age (Tmax), age at maturity (Tm), annual fecundity (f/Rc)), size at birth (Lb), size at maturity (Lm), and asymptotic length (L∞). Group (1) included species with slow growth rates (0.034 yr-1 < k < 0.103 yr-1) and extended longevity (26 yr < Tmax < 81 yr), e.g., shortfin mako Isurus oxyrinchus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus, etc.; Group (2) included species with fast growth rates (0.103 yr-1 < k < 0.358 yr-1) and short longevity (9 yr < Tmax < 26 yr), e.g., starspotted smoothhound Mustelus manazo, gray smoothhound M. californicus, etc.; Group (3) included late maturing species (Lm/L∞ ≧ 0.75) with moderate longevity (Tmax < 29 yr), e.g., pelagic thresher Alopias pelagicus, sevengill shark Notorynchus cepedianus. The empirical equation for all data pooled was also developed. The λ’ values estimated by these empirical equations showed good agreement with those calculated using conventional demographic analysis. The predictability was further validated by an independent data set of three species. The empirical equations developed in this study not only reduce the uncertainties in estimation but also account for the difference in life history among groups. This method therefore provides an efficient and effective approach to the implementation of precautionary shark management measures. PMID:26576058

Harmonizing multiple methods for reconstructing historical potential and reference evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belaineh, Getachew; Sumner, David; Carter, Edward; Clapp, David

2013-01-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) and reference evapotranspiration (RET) data are usually critical components of hydrologic analysis. Many different equations are available to estimate PET and RET. Most of these equations, such as the Priestley-Taylor and Penman- Monteith methods, rely on detailed meteorological data collected at ground-based weather stations. Few weather stations collect enough data to estimate PET or RET using one of the more complex evapotranspiration equations. Currently, satellite data integrated with ground meteorological data are used with one of these evapotranspiration equations to accurately estimate PET and RET. However, earlier than the last few decades, historical reconstructions of PET and RET needed for many hydrologic analyses are limited by the paucity of satellite data and of some types of ground data. Air temperature stands out as the most generally available meteorological ground data type over the last century. Temperature-based approaches used with readily available historical temperature data offer the potential for long period-of-record PET and RET historical reconstructions. A challenge is the inconsistency between the more accurate, but more data intensive, methods appropriate for more recent periods and the less accurate, but less data intensive, methods appropriate to the more distant past. In this study, multiple methods are harmonized in a seamless reconstruction of historical PET and RET by quantifying and eliminating the biases of the simple Hargreaves-Samani method relative to the more complex and accurate Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith methods. This harmonization process is used to generate long-term, internally consistent, spatiotemporal databases of PET and RET.

Decay of the 3D viscous liquid-gas two-phase flow model with damping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yinghui

2016-08-01

We establish the optimal Lp - L2(1 ≤ p < 6/5) time decay rates of the solution to the Cauchy problem for the 3D viscous liquid-gas two-phase flow model with damping and analyse the influences of the damping on the qualitative behaviors of solution. It is observed that the fraction effect of the damping affects the dispersion of fluids and enhances the time decay rate of solution. Our method of proof consists of Hodge decomposition technique, Lp - L2 estimates for the linearized equations, and delicate energy estimates.

Assessment of a 3-D boundary layer code to predict heat transfer and flow losses in a turbine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, O. L.

1984-01-01

Zonal concepts are utilized to delineate regions of application of three-dimensional boundary layer (DBL) theory. The zonal approach requires three distinct analyses. A modified version of the 3-DBL code named TABLET is used to analyze the boundary layer flow. This modified code solves the finite difference form of the compressible 3-DBL equations in a nonorthogonal surface coordinate system which includes coriolis forces produced by coordinate rotation. These equations are solved using an efficient, implicit, fully coupled finite difference procedure. The nonorthogonal surface coordinate system is calculated using a general analysis based on the transfinite mapping of Gordon which is valid for any arbitrary surface. Experimental data is used to determine the boundary layer edge conditions. The boundary layer edge conditions are determined by integrating the boundary layer edge equations, which are the Euler equations at the edge of the boundary layer, using the known experimental wall pressure distribution. Starting solutions along the inflow boundaries are estimated by solving the appropriate limiting form of the 3-DBL equations.

Estimation of Ordinary Differential Equation Parameters Using Constrained Local Polynomial Regression.

PubMed

Ding, A Adam; Wu, Hulin

2014-10-01

We propose a new method to use a constrained local polynomial regression to estimate the unknown parameters in ordinary differential equation models with a goal of improving the smoothing-based two-stage pseudo-least squares estimate. The equation constraints are derived from the differential equation model and are incorporated into the local polynomial regression in order to estimate the unknown parameters in the differential equation model. We also derive the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator. Our simulation studies show that our new estimator is clearly better than the pseudo-least squares estimator in estimation accuracy with a small price of computational cost. An application example on immune cell kinetics and trafficking for influenza infection further illustrates the benefits of the proposed new method.

Estimation of Ordinary Differential Equation Parameters Using Constrained Local Polynomial Regression

PubMed Central

Ding, A. Adam; Wu, Hulin

2015-01-01

We propose a new method to use a constrained local polynomial regression to estimate the unknown parameters in ordinary differential equation models with a goal of improving the smoothing-based two-stage pseudo-least squares estimate. The equation constraints are derived from the differential equation model and are incorporated into the local polynomial regression in order to estimate the unknown parameters in the differential equation model. We also derive the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator. Our simulation studies show that our new estimator is clearly better than the pseudo-least squares estimator in estimation accuracy with a small price of computational cost. An application example on immune cell kinetics and trafficking for influenza infection further illustrates the benefits of the proposed new method. PMID:26401093

A method for estimating mean and low flows of streams in national forests of Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1985-01-01

Equations were developed for estimating mean annual discharge, 80-percent exceedance discharge, and 95-percent exceedance discharge for streams on national forest lands in Montana. The equations for mean annual discharge used active-channel width, drainage area and mean annual precipitation as independent variables, with active-channel width being most significant. The equations for 80-percent exceedance discharge and 95-percent exceedance discharge used only active-channel width as an independent variable. The standard error or estimate for the best equation for estimating mean annual discharge was 27 percent. The standard errors of estimate for the equations were 67 percent for estimating 80-percent exceedance discharge and 75 percent for estimating 95-percent exceedance discharge. (USGS)

SUPERPOSITION OF POLYTROPES IN THE INNER HELIOSHEATH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livadiotis, G., E-mail: glivadiotis@swri.edu

2016-03-15

This paper presents a possible generalization of the equation of state and Bernoulli's integral when a superposition of polytropic processes applies in space and astrophysical plasmas. The theory of polytropic thermodynamic processes for a fixed polytropic index is extended for a superposition of polytropic indices. In general, the superposition may be described by any distribution of polytropic indices, but emphasis is placed on a Gaussian distribution. The polytropic density–temperature relation has been used in numerous analyses of space plasma data. This linear relation on a log–log scale is now generalized to a concave-downward parabola that is able to describe themore » observations better. The model of the Gaussian superposition of polytropes is successfully applied in the proton plasma of the inner heliosheath. The estimated mean polytropic index is near zero, indicating the dominance of isobaric thermodynamic processes in the sheath, similar to other previously published analyses. By computing Bernoulli's integral and applying its conservation along the equator of the inner heliosheath, the magnetic field in the inner heliosheath is estimated, B ∼ 2.29 ± 0.16 μG. The constructed normalized histogram of the values of the magnetic field is similar to that derived from a different method that uses the concept of large-scale quantization, bringing incredible insights to this novel theory.« less

Stream profile analysis using a step backwater model for selected reaches in the Chippewa Creek basin in Medina, Wayne, and Summit Counties, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Straub, David E.; Ebner, Andrew D.

2011-01-01

The USGS, in cooperation with the Chippewa Subdistrict of the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, performed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses for selected reaches of three streams in Medina, Wayne, Stark, and Summit Counties in northeast Ohio: Chippewa Creek, Little Chippewa Creek, and River Styx. This study was done to facilitate assessment of various alternatives for mitigating flood hazards in the Chippewa Creek basin. StreamStats regional regression equations were used to estimate instantaneous peak discharges approximately corresponding to bankfull flows. Explanatory variables used in the regression equations were drainage area, main-channel slope, and storage area. Hydraulic models were developed to determine water-surface profiles along the three stream reaches studied for the bankfull discharges established in the hydrologic analyses. The HEC-RAS step-backwater hydraulic analysis model was used to determine water-surface profiles for the three streams. Starting water-surface elevations for all streams were established using normal depth computations in the HEC-RAS models. Cross-sectional elevation data, hydraulic-structure geometries, and roughness coefficients were collected in the field and (along with peak-discharge estimates) used as input for the models. Reach-averaged reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.11 to 1.29 feet over the four roughness coefficient reduction scenarios.

Superposition of Polytropes in the Inner Heliosheath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livadiotis, G.

2016-03-01

This paper presents a possible generalization of the equation of state and Bernoulli's integral when a superposition of polytropic processes applies in space and astrophysical plasmas. The theory of polytropic thermodynamic processes for a fixed polytropic index is extended for a superposition of polytropic indices. In general, the superposition may be described by any distribution of polytropic indices, but emphasis is placed on a Gaussian distribution. The polytropic density-temperature relation has been used in numerous analyses of space plasma data. This linear relation on a log-log scale is now generalized to a concave-downward parabola that is able to describe the observations better. The model of the Gaussian superposition of polytropes is successfully applied in the proton plasma of the inner heliosheath. The estimated mean polytropic index is near zero, indicating the dominance of isobaric thermodynamic processes in the sheath, similar to other previously published analyses. By computing Bernoulli's integral and applying its conservation along the equator of the inner heliosheath, the magnetic field in the inner heliosheath is estimated, B ˜ 2.29 ± 0.16 μG. The constructed normalized histogram of the values of the magnetic field is similar to that derived from a different method that uses the concept of large-scale quantization, bringing incredible insights to this novel theory.

Improving North American forest biomass estimates from literature synthesis and meta-analysis of existing biomass equations

Treesearch

David C. Chojnacky; Jennifer C. Jenkins; Amanda K. Holland

2009-01-01

Thousands of published equations purport to estimate biomass of individual trees. These equations are often based on very small samples, however, and can provide widely different estimates for trees of the same species. We addressed this issue in a previous study by devising 10 new equations that estimated total aboveground biomass for all species in North America (...

Sex estimation from the patella in an African American population.

PubMed

Peckmann, Tanya R; Fisher, Brooke

2018-02-01

The skull and pelvis have been used for the estimation of sex for unknown human remains. However, in forensic cases where skeletal remains often exhibit postmortem damage and taphonomic changes the patella may be used for the estimation of sex as it is a preservationally favoured bone. The goal of the present research was to derive discriminant function equations from the patella for estimation of sex from an historic African American population. Six parameters were measured on 200 individuals (100 males and 100 females), ranging in age from 20 to 80 years old, from the Robert J. Terry Anatomical Skeleton Collection. The statistical analyses showed that all variables were sexually dimorphic. Discriminant function score equations were generated for use in sex estimation. The overall accuracy of sex classification ranged from 80.0% to 85.0% for the direct method and 80.0%-84.5% for the stepwise method. Overall, when the Spanish and Black South African discriminant functions were applied to the African American population they showed low accuracy rates for sexing the African American sample. However, when the White South African discriminant functions were applied to the African American sample they displayed high accuracy rates for sexing the African American population. The patella was shown to be accurate for sex estimation in the historic African American population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

The Evolution of a More Rigorous Approach to Benefit Transfer: Benefit Function Transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, John B.

1992-03-01

The desire for economic values of recreation for unstudied recreation resources dates back to the water resource development benefit-cost analyses of the early 1960s. Rather than simply applying existing estimates of benefits per trip to the study site, a fairly rigorous approach was developed by a number of economists. This approach involves application of travel cost demand equations and contingent valuation benefit functions from existing sites to the new site. In this way the spatial market of the new site (i.e., its differing own price, substitute prices and population distribution) is accounted for in the new estimate of total recreation benefits. The assumptions of benefit transfer from recreation sites in one state to another state for the same recreation activity is empirically tested. The equality of demand coefficients for ocean sport salmon fishing in Oregon versus Washington and for freshwater steelhead fishing in Oregon versus Idaho is rejected. Thus transfer of either demand equations or average benefits per trip are likely to be in error. Using the Oregon steelhead equation, benefit transfers to rivers within the state are shown to be accurate to within 5-15%.

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics using LANDSAT-1 (ERTS-1) imagery. [Delmarva Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollyday, E. F. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Streamflow characteristics in the Delmarva Peninsula derived from the records of daily discharge of 20 gaged basins are representative of the full range in flow conditions and include all of those commonly used for design or planning purposes. They include annual flood peaks with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, mean annual discharge, standard deviation of the mean annual discharge, mean monthly discharges, standard deviation of the mean monthly discharges, low-flow characteristics, flood volume characteristics, and the discharge equalled or exceeded 50 percent of the time. Streamflow and basin characteristics were related by a technique of multiple regression using a digital computer. A control group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records. An experimental group of equations was computed using basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery as well as from maps and climatological records. Based on a reduction in standard error of estimate equal to or greater than 10 percent, the equations for 12 stream flow characteristics were substantially improved by adding to the analyses basin characteristics derived from LANDSAT imagery.

Performance Estimation for Two-Dimensional Brownian Rotary Ratchet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tutu, Hiroki; Horita, Takehiko; Ouchi, Katsuya

2015-04-01

Within the context of the Brownian ratchet model, a molecular rotary system that can perform unidirectional rotations induced by linearly polarized ac fields and produce positive work under loads was studied. The model is based on the Langevin equation for a particle in a two-dimensional (2D) three-tooth ratchet potential of threefold symmetry. The performance of the system is characterized by the coercive torque, i.e., the strength of the load competing with the torque induced by the ac driving field, and the energy efficiency in force conversion from the driving field to the torque. We propose a master equation for coarse-grained states, which takes into account the boundary motion between states, and develop a kinetic description to estimate the mean angular momentum (MAM) and powers relevant to the energy balance equation. The framework of analysis incorporates several 2D characteristics and is applicable to a wide class of models of smooth 2D ratchet potential. We confirm that the obtained expressions for MAM, power, and efficiency of the model can enable us to predict qualitative behaviors. We also discuss the usefulness of the torque/power relationship for experimental analyses, and propose a characteristic for 2D ratchet systems.

Regionalization of low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures for estimating 3-day 2-year, 3-day 10-year, 3-day 20-year, and 7-day 10-year low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee are based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to west Tennessee streams, and another set applies to central and east Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for west Tennessee are 24 to 32% and for central and east Tennessee 31 to 35%. Streamflow recession indexes, in days/log cycle, are used to account for effects of geology of the drainage basin on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that sustain streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

A modified Friedmann equation for a system with varying gravitational mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorkavyi, Nick; Vasilkov, Alexander

2018-05-01

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detection of gravitational waves that take away 5 per cent of the total mass of two merging black holes points out on the importance of considering varying gravitational mass of a system. Using an assumption that the energy-momentum pseudo-tensor of gravitational waves is not considered as a source of gravitational field, we analyse a perturbation of the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker metric caused by the varying gravitational mass of a system. This perturbation leads to a modified Friedmann equation that contains a term similar to the `cosmological constant'. Theoretical estimates of the effective cosmological constant quantitatively corresponds to observed cosmological acceleration.

Derivation of energy-based base shear force coefficient considering hysteretic behavior and P-delta effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ucar, Taner; Merter, Onur

2018-01-01

A modified energy-balance equation accounting for P-delta effects and hysteretic behavior of reinforced concrete members is derived. Reduced hysteretic properties of structural components due to combined stiffness and strength degradation and pinching effects, and hysteretic damping are taken into account in a simple manner by utilizing plastic energy and seismic input energy modification factors. Having a pre-selected yield mechanism, energy balance of structure in inelastic range is considered. P-delta effects are included in derived equation by adding the external work of gravity loads to the work of equivalent inertia forces and equating the total external work to the modified plastic energy. Earthquake energy input to multi degree of freedom (MDOF) system is approximated by using the modal energy-decomposition. Energy-based base shear coefficients are verified by means of both pushover analysis and nonlinear time history (NLTH) analysis of several RC frames having different number of stories. NLTH analyses of frames are performed by using the time histories of ten scaled ground motions compatible with elastic design acceleration spectrum and fulfilling duration/amplitude related requirements of Turkish Seismic Design Code. The observed correlation between energy-based base shear force coefficients and the average base shear force coefficients of NLTH analyses provides a reasonable confidence in estimation of nonlinear base shear force capacity of frames by using the derived equation.

Quasi-Newton methods for parameter estimation in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brewer, Dennis W.

1988-01-01

A state-space approach to parameter estimation in linear functional differential equations is developed using the theory of linear evolution equations. A locally convergent quasi-Newton type algorithm is applied to distributed systems with particular emphasis on parameters that induce unbounded perturbations of the state. The algorithm is computationally implemented on several functional differential equations, including coefficient and delay estimation in linear delay-differential equations.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Nontidal Streams in Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Dillow, Jonathan J.A.

2006-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of annual peak flows are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. This report, done in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the Delaware Geological Survey (DGS), presents methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on nontidal streams in Delaware at locations where streamgaging stations monitor streamflow continuously and at ungaged sites. Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude of floods for return frequencies ranging from 2 through 500 years. These methods are applicable to watersheds exhibiting a full range of urban development conditions. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that makes it easy to obtain flood-frequency estimates for user-selected locations on Delaware streams. Flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites are obtained through a process known as regionalization, using statistical regression analysis, where information determined for a group of streamgaging stations within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the region. One hundred and sixteen streamgaging stations in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of non-regulated annual peak-flow data available were used in the regional analysis. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates with regional estimates of skew and flood-frequency magnitudes. Example flood-frequency estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for: (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged locations, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Regional regression equations applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces of Delaware are presented. The equations incorporate drainage area, forest cover, impervious area, basin storage, housing density, soil type A, and mean basin slope as explanatory variables, and have average standard errors of prediction ranging from 28 to 72 percent. Additional regression equations that incorporate drainage area and housing density as explanatory variables are presented for use in defining the effects of urbanization on peak-flow estimates throughout Delaware for the 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals, along with suggestions for their appropriate use in predicting development-affected peak flows. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are also discussed, including: (1) the availability and description of more than 30 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites, with respect to their relations with maximum 24-hour precipitation and housing density, and their use in the regional analysis; (3) calculation of the 90-percent confidence interval associated with peak-flow estimates from the regional regression equations; and (4) a comparison of flood-frequency estimates at gages used in a previous study, highlighting the effects of various improved analytical techniques.

Integrating different tracking systems in football: multiple camera semi-automatic system, local position measurement and GPS technologies.

PubMed

Buchheit, Martin; Allen, Adam; Poon, Tsz Kit; Modonutti, Mattia; Gregson, Warren; Di Salvo, Valter

2014-12-01

Abstract During the past decade substantial development of computer-aided tracking technology has occurred. Therefore, we aimed to provide calibration equations to allow the interchangeability of different tracking technologies used in soccer. Eighty-two highly trained soccer players (U14-U17) were monitored during training and one match. Player activity was collected simultaneously with a semi-automatic multiple-camera (Prozone), local position measurement (LPM) technology (Inmotio) and two global positioning systems (GPSports and VX). Data were analysed with respect to three different field dimensions (small, <30 m 2 to full-pitch, match). Variables provided by the systems were compared, and calibration equations (linear regression models) between each system were calculated for each field dimension. Most metrics differed between the 4 systems with the magnitude of the differences dependant on both pitch size and the variable of interest. Trivial-to-small between-system differences in total distance were noted. However, high-intensity running distance (>14.4 km · h -1 ) was slightly-to-moderately greater when tracked with Prozone, and accelerations, small-to-very largely greater with LPM. For most of the equations, the typical error of the estimate was of a moderate magnitude. Interchangeability of the different tracking systems is possible with the provided equations, but care is required given their moderate typical error of the estimate.

Method of estimating flood-frequency parameters for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.; Moffatt, R.L.

1981-01-01

Skew coefficients for the log-Pearson type III distribution are generalized on the basis of some similarity of floods in the Snake River basin and other parts of Idaho. Generalized skew coefficients aid in shaping flood-frequency curves because skew coefficients computed from gaging stations having relatively short periods of peak flow records can be unreliable. Generalized skew coefficients can be obtained for a gaging station from one of three maps in this report. The map to be used depends on whether (1) snowmelt floods are domiant (generally when more than 20 percent of the drainage area is above 6,000 feet altitude), (2) rainstorm floods are dominant (generally when the mean altitude is less than 3,000 feet), or (3) either snowmelt or rainstorm floods can be the annual miximum discharge. For the latter case, frequency curves constructed using separate arrays of each type of runoff can be combined into one curve, which, for some stations, is significantly different than the frequency curve constructed using only annual maximum discharges. For 269 gaging stations, flood-frequency curves that include the generalized skew coefficients in the computation of the log-Pearson type III equation tend to fit the data better than previous analyses. Frequency curves for ungaged sites can be derived by estimating three statistics of the log-Pearson type III distribution. The mean and standard deviation of logarithms of annual maximum discharges are estimated by regression equations that use basin characteristics as independent variables. Skew coefficient estimates are the generalized skews. The log-Pearson type III equation is then applied with the three estimated statistics to compute the discharge at selected exceedance probabilities. Standard errors at the 2-percent exceedance probability range from 41 to 90 percent. (USGS)

Stable Algorithm For Estimating Airdata From Flush Surface Pressure Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen, A. (Inventor); Cobleigh, Brent R. (Inventor); Haering, Edward A., Jr. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

An airdata estimation and evaluation system and method, including a stable algorithm for estimating airdata from nonintrusive surface pressure measurements. The airdata estimation and evaluation system is preferably implemented in a flush airdata sensing (FADS) system. The system and method of the present invention take a flow model equation and transform it into a triples formulation equation. The triples formulation equation eliminates the pressure related states from the flow model equation by strategically taking the differences of three surface pressures, known as triples. This triples formulation equation is then used to accurately estimate and compute vital airdata from nonintrusive surface pressure measurements.

Equations for estimating bankfull channel geometry and discharge for streams in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, Gardner C.; Waite, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Regression equations were developed for estimating bankfull geometry—width, mean depth, cross-sectional area—and discharge for streams in Massachusetts. The equations provide water-resource and conservation managers with methods for estimating bankfull characteristics at specific stream sites in Massachusetts. This information can be used for the adminstration of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line corresponding to the elevation of bankfull discharge along each side of a perennial stream. Additionally, information on bankfull channel geometry and discharge are important to Federal, State, and local government agencies and private organizations involved in stream assessment and restoration projects. Regression equations are based on data from stream surveys at 33 sites (32 streamgages and 1 crest-stage gage operated by the U.S. Geological Survey) in and near Massachusetts. Drainage areas of the 33 sites ranged from 0.60 to 329 square miles (mi2). At 27 of the 33 sites, field data were collected and analyses were done to determine bankfull channel geometry and discharge as part of the present study. For 6 of the 33 sites, data on bankfull channel geometry and discharge were compiled from other studies done by the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Conservation Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation. Similar techniques were used for field data collection and analysis for bankfull channel geometry and discharge at all 33 sites. Recurrence intervals of the bankfull discharge, which represent the frequency with which a stream fills its channel, averaged 1.53 years (median value 1.34 years) at the 33 sites. Simple regression equations were developed for bankfull width, mean depth, cross-sectional area, and discharge using drainage area, which is the most significant explanatory variable in estimating these bankfull characteristics. The use of drainage area as an explanatory variable is also the most commonly published method for estimating these bankfull characteristics. Regional curves (graphic plots) of bankfull channel geometry and discharge by drainage area are presented. The regional curves are based on the simple regression equations and can be used to estimate bankfull characteristics from drainage area. Multiple regression analysis, which includes basin characteristics in addition to drainage area, also was used to develop equations. Variability in bankfull width, mean depth, cross-sectional area, and discharge was more fully explained by the multiple regression equations that include mean-basin slope and drainage area than was explained by equations based on drainage area alone. The Massachusetts regional curves and equations developed in this study are similar, in terms of values of slopes and intercepts, to those developed for other parts of the northeastern United States. Limitations associated with site selection and development of the equations resulted in some constraints for the application of equations and regional curves presented in this report. The curves and equations are applicable to stream sites that have (1) less than about 25 percent of their drainage basin area occupied by urban land use (commercial, industrial, transportation, and high-density residential), (2) little to no streamflow regulation, especially from flood-control structures, (3) drainage basin areas greater than 0.60 mi2 and less than 329 mi2, and (4) a mean basin slope greater than 2.2 percent and less than 23.9 percent. The equations may not be applicable where streams flow through extensive wetlands. The equations also may not apply in areas of Cape Cod and the Islands and the area of southeastern Massachusetts close to Cape Cod with extensive areas of coarse-grained glacial deposits where none of the study sites are located. Regardless of the setting, the regression equations are not intended for use as the sole method of estimating bankfull characteristics; however, they may supplement field identification of the bankfull channel when used in conjunction with field verified bankfull indicators, flood-frequency analysis, or other supporting evidence.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges for streams in Iowa, based on data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2013-01-01

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance-probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedance-probability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized least-squares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

Predicting of biomass in Brazilian tropical dry forest: a statistical evaluation of generic equations.

PubMed

Lima, Robson B DE; Alves, Francisco T; Oliveira, Cinthia P DE; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

2017-01-01

Dry tropical forests are a key component in the global carbon cycle and their biomass estimates depend almost exclusively of fitted equations for multi-species or individual species data. Therefore, a systematic evaluation of statistical models through validation of estimates of aboveground biomass stocks is justifiable. In this study was analyzed the capacity of generic and specific equations obtained from different locations in Mexico and Brazil, to estimate aboveground biomass at multi-species levels and for four different species. Generic equations developed in Mexico and Brazil performed better in estimating tree biomass for multi-species data. For Poincianella bracteosa and Mimosa ophthalmocentra, only the Sampaio and Silva (2005) generic equation was the most recommended. These equations indicate lower tendency and lower bias, and biomass estimates for these equations are similar. For the species Mimosa tenuiflora, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and for the genus Croton the specific regional equations are more recommended, although the generic equation of Sampaio and Silva (2005) is not discarded for biomass estimates. Models considering gender, families, successional groups, climatic variables and wood specific gravity should be adjusted, tested and the resulting equations should be validated at both local and regional levels as well as on the scales of tropics with dry forest dominance.

Validation of Field Methods to Assess Body Fat Percentage in Elite Youth Soccer Players.

PubMed

Munguia-Izquierdo, Diego; Suarez-Arrones, Luis; Di Salvo, Valter; Paredes-Hernandez, Victor; Alcazar, Julian; Ara, Ignacio; Kreider, Richard; Mendez-Villanueva, Alberto

2018-05-01

This study determined the most effective field method for quantifying body fat percentage in male elite youth soccer players and developed prediction equations based on anthropometric variables. Forty-four male elite-standard youth soccer players aged 16.3-18.0 years underwent body fat percentage assessments, including bioelectrical impedance analysis and the calculation of various skinfold-based prediction equations. Dual X-ray absorptiometry provided a criterion measure of body fat percentage. Correlation coefficients, bias, limits of agreement, and differences were used as validity measures, and regression analyses were used to develop soccer-specific prediction equations. The equations from Sarria et al. (1998) and Durnin & Rahaman (1967) reached very large correlations and the lowest biases, and they reached neither the practically worthwhile difference nor the substantial difference between methods. The new youth soccer-specific skinfold equation included a combination of triceps and supraspinale skinfolds. None of the practical methods compared in this study are adequate for estimating body fat percentage in male elite youth soccer players, except for the equations from Sarria et al. (1998) and Durnin & Rahaman (1967). The new youth soccer-specific equation calculated in this investigation is the only field method specifically developed and validated in elite male players, and it shows potentially good predictive power. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Spacecraft self-contamination due to back-scattering of outgas products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, S. J.

1976-01-01

The back-scattering of outgas contamination near an orbiting spacecraft due to intermolecular collisions was analyzed. Analytical tools were developed for making reasonably accurate quantitative estimates of the outgas contamination return flux, given a knowledge of the pertinent spacecraft and orbit conditions. Two basic collision mechanisms were considered: (1) collisions involving only outgas molecules (self-scattering) and (2) collisions between outgas molecules and molecules in the ambient atmosphere (ambient-scattering). For simplicity, the geometry was idealized to a uniformly outgassing sphere and to a disk oriented normal to the freestream. The method of solution involved an integration of an approximation of the Boltzmann kinetic equation known as the BGK (or Krook) model equation. Results were obtained in the form of simple equations relating outgas return flux to spacecraft and orbit parameters. Results were compared with previous analyses based on more simplistic models of the collision processes.

Abnormal formation velocities and applications to pore pressure prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Libin; Shen, Guoqiang; Wang, Zhentao; Yang, Hongwei; Han, Hongwei; Cheng, Yuanfeng

2018-06-01

The pore pressure is a vital concept to the petroleum industry and cannot be ignored by either reservoir engineers or geoscientists. Based on theoretical analyses of effective stresses and the grain packing model, a new equation is proposed for predicting pore pressures from formation velocity data. The predictions agree well with both measured pressures and estimations using Eaton's empirical equation, but the application of the new equation to seismic data is simple and convenient. One application example shows that the identification of sweet spots is much easier using pore pressure data than with inverted seismic velocity data. In another application example using field seismic data, a distribution of overpressured strata is revealed, which is a crucial clue for petroleum generation and accumulation. Still, the accuracy of pore pressure prediction is hardly always guaranteed, mainly owing to the complexity of the real geology and the suitability of specific assumptions about the underlying rock physics.

Determining storm sampling requirements for improving precision of annual load estimates of nutrients from a small forested watershed.

PubMed

Ide, Jun'ichiro; Chiwa, Masaaki; Higashi, Naoko; Maruno, Ryoko; Mori, Yasushi; Otsuki, Kyoichi

2012-08-01

This study sought to determine the lowest number of storm events required for adequate estimation of annual nutrient loads from a forested watershed using the regression equation between cumulative load (∑L) and cumulative stream discharge (∑Q). Hydrological surveys were conducted for 4 years, and stream water was sampled sequentially at 15-60-min intervals during 24 h in 20 events, as well as weekly in a small forested watershed. The bootstrap sampling technique was used to determine the regression (∑L-∑Q) equations of dissolved nitrogen (DN) and phosphorus (DP), particulate nitrogen (PN) and phosphorus (PP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and suspended solid (SS) for each dataset of ∑L and ∑Q. For dissolved nutrients (DN, DP, DIN), the coefficient of variance (CV) in 100 replicates of 4-year average annual load estimates was below 20% with datasets composed of five storm events. For particulate nutrients (PN, PP, SS), the CV exceeded 20%, even with datasets composed of more than ten storm events. The differences in the number of storm events required for precise load estimates between dissolved and particulate nutrients were attributed to the goodness of fit of the ∑L-∑Q equations. Bootstrap simulation based on flow-stratified sampling resulted in fewer storm events than the simulation based on random sampling and showed that only three storm events were required to give a CV below 20% for dissolved nutrients. These results indicate that a sampling design considering discharge levels reduces the frequency of laborious chemical analyses of water samples required throughout the year.

Using Linear Equating to Map PROMIS(®) Global Health Items and the PROMIS-29 V2.0 Profile Measure to the Health Utilities Index Mark 3.

PubMed

Hays, Ron D; Revicki, Dennis A; Feeny, David; Fayers, Peter; Spritzer, Karen L; Cella, David

2016-10-01

Preference-based health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) scores are useful as outcome measures in clinical studies, for monitoring the health of populations, and for estimating quality-adjusted life-years. This was a secondary analysis of data collected in an internet survey as part of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS(®)) project. To estimate Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI-3) preference scores, we used the ten PROMIS(®) global health items, the PROMIS-29 V2.0 single pain intensity item and seven multi-item scales (physical functioning, fatigue, pain interference, depressive symptoms, anxiety, ability to participate in social roles and activities, sleep disturbance), and the PROMIS-29 V2.0 items. Linear regression analyses were used to identify significant predictors, followed by simple linear equating to avoid regression to the mean. The regression models explained 48 % (global health items), 61 % (PROMIS-29 V2.0 scales), and 64 % (PROMIS-29 V2.0 items) of the variance in the HUI-3 preference score. Linear equated scores were similar to observed scores, although differences tended to be larger for older study participants. HUI-3 preference scores can be estimated from the PROMIS(®) global health items or PROMIS-29 V2.0. The estimated HUI-3 scores from the PROMIS(®) health measures can be used for economic applications and as a measure of overall HR-QOL in research.

Comparison of methods for estimating carbon dioxide storage by Sacramento's urban forest

Treesearch

Elena Aguaron; E. Gregory McPherson

2012-01-01

Limited open-grown urban tree species biomass equations have necessitated use of forest-derived equations with diverse conclusions on the accuracy of these equations to estimate urban biomass and carbon storage. Our goal was to determine and explain variability among estimates of CO2 storage from four sets of allometric equations for the same...

Performance of Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Creatinine-Cystatin C Equation for Estimating Kidney Function in Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Mindikoglu, Ayse L.; Dowling, Thomas C.; Weir, Matthew R.; Seliger, Stephen L.; Christenson, Robert H.; Magder, Laurence S.

2013-01-01

Conventional creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equations are insufficiently accurate for estimating GFR in cirrhosis. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) recently proposed an equation to estimate GFR in subjects without cirrhosis using both serum creatinine and cystatin C levels. Performance of the new CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation (2012) was superior to previous creatinine- or cystatin C-based GFR equations. To evaluate the performance of the CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation in subjects with cirrhosis, we compared it to GFR measured by non-radiolabeled iothalamate plasma clearance (mGFR) in 72 subjects with cirrhosis. We compared the “bias”, “precision” and “accuracy” of the new CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation to that of 24-hour urinary creatinine clearance (CrCl), Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and previously reported creatinine- and/or cystatin C-based GFR-estimating equations. Accuracy of CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation as quantified by root mean squared error of difference scores [differences between mGFR and estimated GFR (eGFR) or between mGFR and CrCl, or between mGFR and CG equation for each subject] (RMSE=23.56) was significantly better than that of CrCl (37.69, P=0.001), CG (RMSE=36.12, P=0.002) and GFR-estimating equations based on cystatin C only. Its accuracy as quantified by percentage of eGFRs that differed by greater than 30% with respect to mGFR was significantly better compared to CrCl (P=0.024), CG (P=0.0001), 4-variable MDRD (P=0.027) and CKD-EPI creatinine 2009 (P=0.012) equations. However, for 23.61% of the subjects, GFR estimated by CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation differed from the mGFR by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS The diagnostic performance of CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation (2012) in patients with cirrhosis was superior to conventional equations in clinical practice for estimating GFR. However, its diagnostic performance was substantially worse than reported in subjects without cirrhosis. PMID:23744636

Genetic and environmental influences on restrained eating behavior

PubMed Central

Schur, Ellen; Noonan, Carolyn; Polivy, Janet; Goldberg, Jack; Buchwald, Dedra

2009-01-01

Objective We examined the relative contributions of genetic and environmental influences to restrained eating. Methods Restrained eating was assessed by the Restraint Scale in a survey mailed to all twins enrolled in the University of Washington Twin Registry. We used structural equation modeling to estimate genetic and non-genetic contributions to restrained eating. Results 1,196 monozygotic, 456 same-sex dizygotic twins, and 447 opposite-sex twins were included in analyses. Restraint Scale scores were more closely correlated in monozygotic twins (rmale = 0.55, rfemale = 0.55) than in same-sex dizygotic twins (rmale = 0.31, rfemale = 0.19). Based on structural equation modeling, the estimated heritability for restrained eating, adjusted for BMI and sex, was 43% (95% confidence interval 35–50%). There was little evidence for common environmental effects. Conclusion These results indicate an inherited component to restrained eating. Genes could influence restrained eating directly or through inherited mediators such as personality factors or tendencies to gain weight. PMID:19658171

Equations for estimating selected streamflow statistics in Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, Gardner C.; Steeves, Peter A.; Waite, Andrew M.

2014-01-01

The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, will provide an estimate of the natural flows for a selected site. They will not estimate flows for altered sites with dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, and wastewater discharges. If the equations are used to estimate streamflow statistics for altered sites, the user should adjust the flow estimates for the alterations. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 0.52 and 294 square miles and stream densities between 0.94 and 3.49 miles per square mile; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables in the equations.

Error Estimates for Approximate Solutions of the Riccati Equation with Real or Complex Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finster, Felix; Smoller, Joel

2010-09-01

A method is presented for obtaining rigorous error estimates for approximate solutions of the Riccati equation, with real or complex potentials. Our main tool is to derive invariant region estimates for complex solutions of the Riccati equation. We explain the general strategy for applying these estimates and illustrate the method in typical examples, where the approximate solutions are obtained by gluing together WKB and Airy solutions of corresponding one-dimensional Schrödinger equations. Our method is motivated by, and has applications to, the analysis of linear wave equations in the geometry of a rotating black hole.

Diabatic heating rate estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.

1991-01-01

Vertically integrated diabatic heating rate estimates (H) calculated from 32 months of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses (May 1985-December 1987) are determined as residuals of the thermodynamic equation in pressure coordinates. Values for global, hemispheric, zonal, and grid point H are given as they vary over the time period examined. The distribution of H is compared with previous results and with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements. The most significant negative correlations between H and OLR occur for (1) tropical and Northern-Hemisphere mid-latitude oceanic areas and (2) zonal and hemispheric mean values for periods less than 90 days. Largest positive correlations are seen in periods greater than 90 days for the Northern Hemispheric mean and continental areas of North Africa, North America, northern Asia, and Antarctica. The physical basis for these relationships is discussed. An interyear comparison between 1986 and 1987 reveals the ENSO signal.

Evaluation of equations that estimate glomerular filtration rate in renal transplant recipients.

PubMed

De Alencastro, M G; Veronese, F V; Vicari, A R; Gonçalves, L F; Manfro, R C

2014-03-01

The accuracy of equations that estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in renal transplant patients has not been established; thus their performance was assessed in stable renal transplant patients. Renal transplant patients (N.=213) with stable graft function were enrolled. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation was used as the reference method and compared with the Cockcroft-Gault (CG), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), Mayo Clinic (MC) and Nankivell equations. Bias, accuracy and concordance rates were determined for all equation relative to CKD-EPI. Mean estimated GFR values of the equations differed significantly from the CKD-EPI values, though the correlations with the reference method were significant. Values of MDRD differed from the CG, MC and Nankivell estimations. The best agreement to classify the chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages was for the MDRD (Kappa=0.649, P<0.001), and for the other equations the agreement was moderate. The MDRD had less bias and narrower agreement limits but underestimated the GFR at levels above 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Conversely, the CG, MC and Nankivell equations overestimated the GFR, and the Nankivell equation had the worst performance. The MDRD equation P15 and P30 values were higher than those of the other equations (P<0.001). Despite their correlations, equations estimated the GFR and CKD stage differently. The MDRD equation was the most accurate, but the sub-optimal performance of all the equations precludes their accurate use in clinical practice.

Decay of the 3D viscous liquid-gas two-phase flow model with damping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yinghui, E-mail: zhangyinghui0910@126.com

We establish the optimal L{sup p} − L{sup 2}(1 ≤ p < 6/5) time decay rates of the solution to the Cauchy problem for the 3D viscous liquid-gas two-phase flow model with damping and analyse the influences of the damping on the qualitative behaviors of solution. It is observed that the fraction effect of the damping affects the dispersion of fluids and enhances the time decay rate of solution. Our method of proof consists of Hodge decomposition technique, L{sup p} − L{sup 2} estimates for the linearized equations, and delicate energy estimates.

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esralew, Rachel A.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2010-01-01

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage-basin characteristics by using a k-means cluster analysis. Three regions were identified for Oklahoma on the basis of the clustering of gaging stations and a manual delineation of distinguishable hydrologic and geologic boundaries: Region 1 (western Oklahoma excluding the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles), Region 2 (north- and south-central Oklahoma), and Region 3 (eastern and central Oklahoma). A total of 228 regression equations (225 flow-duration regressions and three annual mean-flow regressions) were developed using ordinary least-squares and left-censored (Tobit) multiple-regression techniques. These equations can be used to estimate 75 flow-duration statistics and annual mean-flow for ungaged streams in the three regions. Drainage-basin characteristics that were statistically significant independent variables in the regression analyses were (1) contributing drainage area; (2) station elevation; (3) mean drainage-basin elevation; (4) channel slope; (5) percentage of forested canopy; (6) mean drainage-basin hillslope; (7) soil permeability; and (8) mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation. The accuracy of flow-duration regression equations generally decreased from high-flow exceedance (low-exceedance probability) to low-flow exceedance (high-exceedance probability) . This decrease may have happened because a greater uncertainty exists for low-flow estimates and low-flow is largely affected by localized geology that was not quantified by the drainage-basin characteristics selected. The standard errors of estimate of regression equations for Region 1 (western Oklahoma) were substantially larger than those standard errors for other regions, especially for low-flow exceedances. These errors may be a result of greater variability in low flow because of increased irrigation activities in this region. Regression equations may not be reliable for sites where the drainage-basin characteristics are outside the range of values of independent vari

Stable boundary conditions and difference schemes for Navier-Stokes equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dutt, P.

1985-01-01

The Navier-Stokes equations can be viewed as an incompletely elliptic perturbation of the Euler equations. By using the entropy function for the Euler equations as a measure of energy for the Navier-Stokes equations, it was possible to obtain nonlinear energy estimates for the mixed initial boundary value problem. These estimates are used to derive boundary conditions which guarantee L2 boundedness even when the Reynolds number tends to infinity. Finally, a new difference scheme for modelling the Navier-Stokes equations in multidimensions for which it is possible to obtain discrete energy estimates exactly analogous to those we obtained for the differential equation was proposed.

Novel Equations for Estimating Lean Body Mass in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Tian, Xue; Chen, Yuan; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Qu, Zhen; Dong, Jie

2018-05-01

Simplified methods to estimate lean body mass (LBM), an important nutritional measure representing muscle mass and somatic protein, are lacking in nondialyzed patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We developed and tested 2 reliable equations for estimation of LBM in daily clinical practice. The development and validation groups both included 150 nondialyzed patients with CKD Stages 3 to 5. Two equations for estimating LBM based on mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) or handgrip strength (HGS) were developed and validated in CKD patients with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry as referenced gold method. We developed and validated 2 equations for estimating LBM based on HGS and MAMC. These equations, which also incorporated sex, height, and weight, were developed and validated in CKD patients. The new equations were found to exhibit only small biases when compared with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, with median differences of 0.94 and 0.46 kg observed in the HGS and MAMC equations, respectively. Good precision and accuracy were achieved for both equations, as reflected by small interquartile ranges in the differences and in the percentages of estimates that were 20% of measured LBM. The bias, precision, and accuracy of each equation were found to be similar when it was applied to groups of patients divided by the median measured LBM, the median ratio of extracellular to total body water, and the stages of CKD. LBM estimated from MAMC or HGS were found to provide accurate estimates of LBM in nondialyzed patients with CKD. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linear stability and nonlinear analyses of traffic waves for the general nonlinear car-following model with multi-time delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Dihua; Chen, Dong; Zhao, Min; Liu, Weining; Zheng, Linjiang

2018-07-01

In this paper, the general nonlinear car-following model with multi-time delays is investigated in order to describe the reactions of vehicle to driving behavior. Platoon stability and string stability criteria are obtained for the general nonlinear car-following model. Burgers equation and Korteweg de Vries (KdV) equation and their solitary wave solutions are derived adopting the reductive perturbation method. We investigate the properties of typical optimal velocity model using both analytic and numerical methods, which estimates the impact of delays about the evolution of traffic congestion. The numerical results show that time delays in sensing relative movement is more sensitive to the stability of traffic flow than time delays in sensing host motion.

Regularity estimates up to the boundary for elliptic systems of difference equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strikwerda, J. C.; Wade, B. A.; Bube, K. P.

1986-01-01

Regularity estimates up to the boundary for solutions of elliptic systems of finite difference equations were proved. The regularity estimates, obtained for boundary fitted coordinate systems on domains with smooth boundary, involve discrete Sobolev norms and are proved using pseudo-difference operators to treat systems with variable coefficients. The elliptic systems of difference equations and the boundary conditions which are considered are very general in form. The regularity of a regular elliptic system of difference equations was proved equivalent to the nonexistence of eigensolutions. The regularity estimates obtained are analogous to those in the theory of elliptic systems of partial differential equations, and to the results of Gustafsson, Kreiss, and Sundstrom (1972) and others for hyperbolic difference equations.

A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

2014-01-01

A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in Puerto Rico : new empirical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramos-Gines, Orlando

1999-01-01

Flood-peak discharges and frequencies are presented for 57 gaged sites in Puerto Rico for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The log-Pearson Type III distribution, the methodology recommended by the United States Interagency Committee on Water Data, was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at the gaged sites having 10 to 43 years of record. A technique is presented for estimating flood-peak discharges at recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years for unregulated streams in Puerto Rico with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.83 to 208 square miles. Loglinear multiple regression analyses, using climatic and basin characteristics and peak-discharge data from the 57 gaged sites, were used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged to ungaged sites. The equations have contributing drainage area, depth-to-rock, and mean annual rainfall as the basin and climatic characteristics in estimating flood peak discharges. Examples are given to show a step-by-step procedure in calculating a 100-year flood at a gaged site, an ungaged site, a site near a gaged location, and a site between two gaged sites.

The applicability of eGFR equations to different populations.

PubMed

Delanaye, Pierre; Mariat, Christophe

2013-09-01

The Cockcroft-Gault equation for estimating glomerular filtration rate has been learnt by every generation of medical students over the decades. Since the publication of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation in 1999, however, the supremacy of the Cockcroft-Gault equation has been relentlessly disputed. More recently, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPI) consortium has proposed a group of novel equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR). The MDRD and CKD-EPI equations were developed following a rigorous process, are expressed in a way in which they can be used with standardized biomarkers of GFR (serum creatinine and/or serum cystatin C) and have been evaluated in different populations of patients. Today, the MDRD Study equation and the CKD-EPI equation based on serum creatinine level have supplanted the Cockcroft-Gault equation. In many regards, these equations are superior to the Cockcroft-Gault equation and are now specifically recommended by international guidelines. With their generalized use, however, it has become apparent that those equations are not infallible and that they fail to provide an accurate estimate of GFR in certain situations frequently encountered in clinical practice. After describing the processes that led to the development of the new GFR-estimating equations, this Review discusses the clinical situations in which the applicability of these equations is questioned.

Do group-specific equations provide the best estimates of stature?

PubMed

Albanese, John; Osley, Stephanie E; Tuck, Andrew

2016-04-01

An estimate of stature can be used by a forensic anthropologist with the preliminary identification of an unknown individual when human skeletal remains are recovered. Fordisc is a computer application that can be used to estimate stature; like many other methods it requires the user to assign an unknown individual to a specific group defined by sex, race/ancestry, and century of birth before an equation is applied. The assumption is that a group-specific equation controls for group differences and should provide the best results most often. In this paper we assess the utility and benefits of using group-specific equations to estimate stature using Fordisc. Using the maximum length of the humerus and the maximum length of the femur from individuals with documented stature, we address the question: Do sex-, race/ancestry- and century-specific stature equations provide the best results when estimating stature? The data for our sample of 19th Century White males (n=28) were entered into Fordisc and stature was estimated using 22 different equation options for a total of 616 trials: 19th and 20th Century Black males, 19th and 20th Century Black females, 19th and 20th Century White females, 19th and 20th Century White males, 19th and 20th Century any, and 20th Century Hispanic males. The equations were assessed for utility in any one case (how many times the estimated range bracketed the documented stature) and in aggregate using 1-way ANOVA and other approaches. This group-specific equation that should have provided the best results was outperformed by several other equations for both the femur and humerus. These results suggest that group-specific equations do not provide better results for estimating stature while at the same time are more difficult to apply because an unknown must be allocated to a given group before stature can be estimated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consequences of incomplete surface energy balance closure for CO2 fluxes from open-path CO2/H2O infrared gas analyzers

Treesearch

Heping Liu; James T. Randerson; Jamie Lindfors; William J. Massman; Thomas Foken

2006-01-01

We present an approach for assessing the impact of systematic biases in measured energy fluxes on CO2 flux estimates obtained from open-path eddy-covariance systems. In our analysis, we present equations to analyse the propagation of errors through the Webb, Pearman, and Leuning (WPL) algorithm [Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 106, 85­100, 1980] that is widely used to...

Stature estimation equations for South Asian skeletons based on DXA scans of contemporary adults.

PubMed

Pomeroy, Emma; Mushrif-Tripathy, Veena; Wells, Jonathan C K; Kulkarni, Bharati; Kinra, Sanjay; Stock, Jay T

2018-05-03

Stature estimation from the skeleton is a classic anthropological problem, and recent years have seen the proliferation of population-specific regression equations. Many rely on the anatomical reconstruction of stature from archaeological skeletons to derive regression equations based on long bone lengths, but this requires a collection with very good preservation. In some regions, for example, South Asia, typical environmental conditions preclude the sufficient preservation of skeletal remains. Large-scale epidemiological studies that include medical imaging of the skeleton by techniques such as dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) offer new potential datasets for developing such equations. We derived estimation equations based on known height and bone lengths measured from DXA scans from the Andhra Pradesh Children and Parents Study (Hyderabad, India). Given debates on the most appropriate regression model to use, multiple methods were compared, and the performance of the equations was tested on a published skeletal dataset of individuals with known stature. The equations have standard errors of estimates and prediction errors similar to those derived using anatomical reconstruction or from cadaveric datasets. As measured by the number of significant differences between true and estimated stature, and the prediction errors, the new equations perform as well as, and generally better than, published equations commonly used on South Asian skeletons or based on Indian cadaveric datasets. This study demonstrates the utility of DXA scans as a data source for developing stature estimation equations and offer a new set of equations for use with South Asian datasets. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Comparison of Kernel Equating and Traditional Equipercentile Equating Methods and the Parametric Bootstrap Methods for Estimating Standard Errors in Equipercentile Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Sae Il

2009-01-01

This study used simulation (a) to compare the kernel equating method to traditional equipercentile equating methods under the equivalent-groups (EG) design and the nonequivalent-groups with anchor test (NEAT) design and (b) to apply the parametric bootstrap method for estimating standard errors of equating. A two-parameter logistic item response…

Flood characteristics of Alaskan streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamke, R.D.

1979-01-01

Peak discharge data for Alaskan streams are summarized and analyzed. Multiple-regression equations relating peak discharge magnitude and frequency to climatic and physical characteristics of 260 gaged basins were determined in order to estimate average recurrence interval of floods at ungaged sites. These equations are for 1.25-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year average recurrence intervals. In this report, Alaska was divided into two regions, one having a maritime climate with fall and winter rains and floods, the other having spring and summer floods of a variety or combinations of causes. Average standard errors of the six multiple-regression equations for these two regions were 48 and 74 percent, respectively. Maximum recorded floods at more than 400 sites throughout Alaska are tabulated. Maps showing lines of equal intensity of the principal climatic variables found to be significant (mean annual precipitation and mean minimum January temperature), and location of the 260 sites used in the multiple-regression analyses are included. Little flood data have been collected in western and arctic Alaska, and the predictive equations are therefore less reliable for those areas. (Woodard-USGS)

Novel Equations for Estimating Lean Body Mass in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Dong, Jie; Li, Yan-Jun; Xu, Rong; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Zheng, Ying-Dong

2015-01-01

♦ Objectives: To develop and validate equations for estimating lean body mass (LBM) in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. ♦ Methods: Two equations for estimating LBM, one based on mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) and hand grip strength (HGS), i.e., LBM-M-H, and the other based on HGS, i.e., LBM-H, were developed and validated with LBM obtained by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). The developed equations were compared to LBM estimated from creatinine kinetics (LBM-CK) and anthropometry (LBM-A) in terms of bias, precision, and accuracy. The prognostic values of LBM estimated from the equations in all-cause mortality risk were assessed. ♦ Results: The developed equations incorporated gender, height, weight, and dialysis duration. Compared to LBM-DEXA, the bias of the developed equations was lower than that of LBM-CK and LBM-A. Additionally, LBM-M-H and LBM-H had better accuracy and precision. The prognostic values of LBM in all-cause mortality risk based on LBM-M-H, LBM-H, LBM-CK, and LBM-A were similar. ♦ Conclusions: Lean body mass estimated by the new equations based on MAMC and HGS was correlated with LBM obtained by DEXA and may serve as practical surrogate markers of LBM in PD patients. PMID:26293839

Novel Equations for Estimating Lean Body Mass in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

PubMed

Dong, Jie; Li, Yan-Jun; Xu, Rong; Yang, Zhi-Kai; Zheng, Ying-Dong

2015-12-01

♦ To develop and validate equations for estimating lean body mass (LBM) in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. ♦ Two equations for estimating LBM, one based on mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) and hand grip strength (HGS), i.e., LBM-M-H, and the other based on HGS, i.e., LBM-H, were developed and validated with LBM obtained by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). The developed equations were compared to LBM estimated from creatinine kinetics (LBM-CK) and anthropometry (LBM-A) in terms of bias, precision, and accuracy. The prognostic values of LBM estimated from the equations in all-cause mortality risk were assessed. ♦ The developed equations incorporated gender, height, weight, and dialysis duration. Compared to LBM-DEXA, the bias of the developed equations was lower than that of LBM-CK and LBM-A. Additionally, LBM-M-H and LBM-H had better accuracy and precision. The prognostic values of LBM in all-cause mortality risk based on LBM-M-H, LBM-H, LBM-CK, and LBM-A were similar. ♦ Lean body mass estimated by the new equations based on MAMC and HGS was correlated with LBM obtained by DEXA and may serve as practical surrogate markers of LBM in PD patients. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

A critical review and database of biomass and volume allometric equation for trees and shrubs of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, H.; Siddique, M. R. H.; Akhter, M.

2016-08-01

Estimations of biomass, volume and carbon stock are important in the decision making process for the sustainable management of a forest. These estimations can be conducted by using available allometric equations of biomass and volume. Present study aims to: i. develop a compilation with verified allometric equations of biomass, volume, and carbon for trees and shrubs of Bangladesh, ii. find out the gaps and scope for further development of allometric equations for different trees and shrubs of Bangladesh. Key stakeholders (government departments, research organizations, academic institutions, and potential individual researchers) were identified considering their involvement in use and development of allometric equations. A list of documents containing allometric equations was prepared from secondary sources. The documents were collected, examined, and sorted to avoid repetition, yielding 50 documents. These equations were tested through a quality control scheme involving operational verification, conceptual verification, applicability, and statistical credibility. A total of 517 allometric equations for 80 species of trees, shrubs, palm, and bamboo were recorded. In addition, 222 allometric equations for 39 species were validated through the quality control scheme. Among the verified equations, 20%, 12% and 62% of equations were for green-biomass, oven-dried biomass, and volume respectively and 4 tree species contributed 37% of the total verified equations. Five gaps have been pinpointed for the existing allometric equations of Bangladesh: a. little work on allometric equation of common tree and shrub species, b. most of the works were concentrated on certain species, c. very little proportion of allometric equations for biomass estimation, d. no allometric equation for belowground biomass and carbon estimation, and d. lower proportion of valid allometric equations. It is recommended that site and species specific allometric equations should be developed and consistency in field sampling, sample processing, data recording and selection of allometric equations should be maintained to ensure accuracy in estimation of biomass, volume, and carbon stock in different forest types of Bangladesh.

SEM Based CARMA Time Series Modeling for Arbitrary N.

PubMed

Oud, Johan H L; Voelkle, Manuel C; Driver, Charles C

2018-01-01

This article explains in detail the state space specification and estimation of first and higher-order autoregressive moving-average models in continuous time (CARMA) in an extended structural equation modeling (SEM) context for N = 1 as well as N > 1. To illustrate the approach, simulations will be presented in which a single panel model (T = 41 time points) is estimated for a sample of N = 1,000 individuals as well as for samples of N = 100 and N = 50 individuals, followed by estimating 100 separate models for each of the one-hundred N = 1 cases in the N = 100 sample. Furthermore, we will demonstrate how to test the difference between the full panel model and each N = 1 model by means of a subject-group-reproducibility test. Finally, the proposed analyses will be applied in an empirical example, in which the relationships between mood at work and mood at home are studied in a sample of N = 55 women. All analyses are carried out by ctsem, an R-package for continuous time modeling, interfacing to OpenMx.

Technique for estimating depth of floods in Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, C.R.

1983-01-01

Estimates of flood depths are needed for design of roadways across flood plains and for other types of construction along streams. Equations for estimating flood depths in Tennessee were derived using data for 150 gaging stations. The equations are based on drainage basin size and can be used to estimate depths of the 10-year and 100-year floods for four hydrologic areas. A method also was developed for estimating depth of floods having recurrence intervals between 10 and 100 years. Standard errors range from 22 to 30 percent for the 10-year depth equations and from 23 to 30 percent for the 100-year depth equations. (USGS)

p-Euler equations and p-Navier-Stokes equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lei; Liu, Jian-Guo

2018-04-01

We propose in this work new systems of equations which we call p-Euler equations and p-Navier-Stokes equations. p-Euler equations are derived as the Euler-Lagrange equations for the action represented by the Benamou-Brenier characterization of Wasserstein-p distances, with incompressibility constraint. p-Euler equations have similar structures with the usual Euler equations but the 'momentum' is the signed (p - 1)-th power of the velocity. In the 2D case, the p-Euler equations have streamfunction-vorticity formulation, where the vorticity is given by the p-Laplacian of the streamfunction. By adding diffusion presented by γ-Laplacian of the velocity, we obtain what we call p-Navier-Stokes equations. If γ = p, the a priori energy estimates for the velocity and momentum have dual symmetries. Using these energy estimates and a time-shift estimate, we show the global existence of weak solutions for the p-Navier-Stokes equations in Rd for γ = p and p ≥ d ≥ 2 through a compactness criterion.

Using global sensitivity analysis to understand higher order interactions in complex models: an application of GSA on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to quantify model sensitivity and implications for ecosystem services management in Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fremier, A. K.; Estrada Carmona, N.; Harper, E.; DeClerck, F.

2011-12-01

Appropriate application of complex models to estimate system behavior requires understanding the influence of model structure and parameter estimates on model output. To date, most researchers perform local sensitivity analyses, rather than global, because of computational time and quantity of data produced. Local sensitivity analyses are limited in quantifying the higher order interactions among parameters, which could lead to incomplete analysis of model behavior. To address this concern, we performed a GSA on a commonly applied equation for soil loss - the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. USLE is an empirical model built on plot-scale data from the USA and the Revised version (RUSLE) includes improved equations for wider conditions, with 25 parameters grouped into six factors to estimate long-term plot and watershed scale soil loss. Despite RUSLE's widespread application, a complete sensitivity analysis has yet to be performed. In this research, we applied a GSA to plot and watershed scale data from the US and Costa Rica to parameterize the RUSLE in an effort to understand the relative importance of model factors and parameters across wide environmental space. We analyzed the GSA results using Random Forest, a statistical approach to evaluate parameter importance accounting for the higher order interactions, and used Classification and Regression Trees to show the dominant trends in complex interactions. In all GSA calculations the management of cover crops (C factor) ranks the highest among factors (compared to rain-runoff erosivity, topography, support practices, and soil erodibility). This is counter to previous sensitivity analyses where the topographic factor was determined to be the most important. The GSA finding is consistent across multiple model runs, including data from the US, Costa Rica, and a synthetic dataset of the widest theoretical space. The three most important parameters were: Mass density of live and dead roots found in the upper inch of soil (C factor), slope angle (L and S factor), and percentage of land area covered by surface cover (C factor). Our findings give further support to the importance of vegetation as a vital ecosystem service provider - soil loss reduction. Concurrent, progress is already been made in Costa Rica, where dam managers are moving forward on a Payment for Ecosystem Services scheme to help keep private lands forested and to improve crop management through targeted investments. Use of complex watershed models, such as RUSLE can help managers quantify the effect of specific land use changes. Moreover, effective land management of vegetation has other important benefits, such as bundled ecosystem services (e.g. pollination, habitat connectivity, etc) and improvements of communities' livelihoods.

Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique

PubMed Central

O’Mahoney, Thomas G.; Kitchener, Andrew C.; Manning, Phillip L.; Sellers, William I.

2016-01-01

The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit ‘convex hulls’ around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = − 2.31, b = 0.90, r2 = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8–10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6–14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a means of objectively estimating mass and body segment properties of extinct species using whole articulated skeletons. PMID:26788418

Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

PubMed

Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

2017-11-01

To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

The use of bioelectrical impedance analysis to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Bell, Kristie L; Boyd, Roslyn N; Walker, Jacqueline L; Stevenson, Richard D; Davies, Peter S W

2013-08-01

Body composition assessment is an essential component of nutritional evaluation in children with cerebral palsy. This study aimed to validate bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water in young children with cerebral palsy and determine best electrode placement in unilateral impairment. 55 young children with cerebral palsy across all functional ability levels were included. Height/length was measured or estimated from knee height. Total body water was estimated using a Bodystat 1500MDD and three equations, and measured using the gold standard, deuterium dilution technique. Comparisons were made using Bland Altman analysis. For children with bilateral impairment, the Fjeld equation estimated total body water with the least bias (limits of agreement): 0.0 L (-1.4 L to 1.5 L); the Pencharz equation produced the greatest: 2.7 L (0.6 L-4.8 L). For children with unilateral impairment, differences between measured and estimated total body water were lowest on the unimpaired side using the Fjeld equation 0.1 L (-1.5 L to 1.6 L)) and greatest for the Pencharz equation. The ability of bioelectrical impedance to estimate total body water depends on the equation chosen. The Fjeld equation was the most accurate for the group, however, individual results varied by up to 18%. A population specific equation was developed and may enhance the accuracy of estimates. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) number: ACTRN12611000616976. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

How the 2SLS/IV estimator can handle equality constraints in structural equation models: a system-of-equations approach.

PubMed

Nestler, Steffen

2014-05-01

Parameters in structural equation models are typically estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Bollen (1996) proposed an alternative non-iterative, equation-by-equation estimator that uses instrumental variables. Although this two-stage least squares/instrumental variables (2SLS/IV) estimator has good statistical properties, one problem with its application is that parameter equality constraints cannot be imposed. This paper presents a mathematical solution to this problem that is based on an extension of the 2SLS/IV approach to a system of equations. We present an example in which our approach was used to examine strong longitudinal measurement invariance. We also investigated the new approach in a simulation study that compared it with ML in the examination of the equality of two latent regression coefficients and strong measurement invariance. Overall, the results show that the suggested approach is a useful extension of the original 2SLS/IV estimator and allows for the effective handling of equality constraints in structural equation models. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Item Response Theory Equating Using Bayesian Informative Priors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de la Torre, Jimmy; Patz, Richard J.

This paper seeks to extend the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in item response theory (IRT) to include the estimation of equating relationships along with the estimation of test item parameters. A method is proposed that incorporates estimation of the equating relationship in the item calibration phase. Item parameters from…

Mean annual runoff and peak flow estimates based on channel geometry of streams in northeastern and western Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1983-01-01

Equations for estimating mean annual runoff and peak discharge from measurements of channel geometry were developed for western and northeastern Montana. The study area was divided into two regions for the mean annual runoff analysis, and separate multiple-regression equations were developed for each region. The active-channel width was determined to be the most important independent variable in each region. The standard error of estimate for the estimating equation using active-channel width was 61 percent in the Northeast Region and 38 percent in the West region. The study area was divided into six regions for the peak discharge analysis, and multiple regression equations relating channel geometry and basin characteristics to peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were developed for each region. The standard errors of estimate for the regression equations using only channel width as an independent variable ranged from 35 to 105 percent. The standard errors improved in four regions as basin characteristics were added to the estimating equations. (USGS)

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, Jason M.

2010-01-01

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Bayesian parameter estimation for nonlinear modelling of biological pathways.

PubMed

Ghasemi, Omid; Lindsey, Merry L; Yang, Tianyi; Nguyen, Nguyen; Huang, Yufei; Jin, Yu-Fang

2011-01-01

The availability of temporal measurements on biological experiments has significantly promoted research areas in systems biology. To gain insight into the interaction and regulation of biological systems, mathematical frameworks such as ordinary differential equations have been widely applied to model biological pathways and interpret the temporal data. Hill equations are the preferred formats to represent the reaction rate in differential equation frameworks, due to their simple structures and their capabilities for easy fitting to saturated experimental measurements. However, Hill equations are highly nonlinearly parameterized functions, and parameters in these functions cannot be measured easily. Additionally, because of its high nonlinearity, adaptive parameter estimation algorithms developed for linear parameterized differential equations cannot be applied. Therefore, parameter estimation in nonlinearly parameterized differential equation models for biological pathways is both challenging and rewarding. In this study, we propose a Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm to estimate parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways using time series data. We used the Runge-Kutta method to transform differential equations to difference equations assuming a known structure of the differential equations. This transformation allowed us to generate predictions dependent on previous states and to apply a Bayesian approach, namely, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We applied this approach to the biological pathways involved in the left ventricle (LV) response to myocardial infarction (MI) and verified our algorithm by estimating two parameters in a Hill equation embedded in the nonlinear model. We further evaluated our estimation performance with different parameter settings and signal to noise ratios. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm for both linearly and nonlinearly parameterized dynamic systems. Our proposed Bayesian algorithm successfully estimated parameters in nonlinear mathematical models for biological pathways. This method can be further extended to high order systems and thus provides a useful tool to analyze biological dynamics and extract information using temporal data.

Validity of Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis to Estimation Fat-Free Mass in the Army Cadets.

PubMed

Langer, Raquel D; Borges, Juliano H; Pascoa, Mauro A; Cirolini, Vagner X; Guerra-Júnior, Gil; Gonçalves, Ezequiel M

2016-03-11

Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) is a fast, practical, non-invasive, and frequently used method for fat-free mass (FFM) estimation. The aims of this study were to validate predictive equations of BIA to FFM estimation in Army cadets and to develop and validate a specific BIA equation for this population. A total of 396 males, Brazilian Army cadets, aged 17-24 years were included. The study used eight published predictive BIA equations, a specific equation in FFM estimation, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Student's t-test (for paired sample), linear regression analysis, and Bland-Altman method were used to test the validity of the BIA equations. Predictive BIA equations showed significant differences in FFM compared to DXA (p < 0.05) and large limits of agreement by Bland-Altman. Predictive BIA equations explained 68% to 88% of FFM variance. Specific BIA equations showed no significant differences in FFM, compared to DXA values. Published BIA predictive equations showed poor accuracy in this sample. The specific BIA equations, developed in this study, demonstrated validity for this sample, although should be used with caution in samples with a large range of FFM.

Development of demi-span equations for predicting height among the Malaysian elderly.

PubMed

Ngoh, H J; Sakinah, H; Harsa Amylia, M S

2012-08-01

This study aimed to develop demi-span equations for predicting height in the Malaysian elderly and to explore the applicability of previous published demi-span equations derived from adult populations to the elderly. A cross-sectional study was conducted on Malaysian elderly aged 60 years and older. Subjects were residents of eight shelter homes in Peninsular Malaysia; 204 men and 124 women of Malay, Chinese and Indian ethnicity were included. Measurements of weight, height and demi-span were obtained using standard procedures. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 18.0. The demi-span equations obtained were as follows: Men: Height (cm) = 67.51 + (1.29 x demi-span) - (0.12 x age) + 4.13; Women: Height (cm) = 67.51 + (1.29 x demi-span) - (0.12 x age). Height predicted from these new equations demonstrated good agreement with measured height and no significant differences were found between the mean values of predicted and measured heights in either gender (p>0.05). However, the heights predicted from previous published adult-derived demi-span equations failed to yield good agreement with the measured height of the elderly; significant over-estimation and underestimation of heights tended to occur (p>0.05). The new demi-span equations allow prediction of height with sufficient accuracy in the Malaysian elderly. However, further validation on other elderly samples is needed. Also, we recommend caution when using adult-derived demi-span equations to predict height in elderly people.

Alcohol and liver cirrhosis mortality in the United States: comparison of methods for the analyses of time-series panel data models.

PubMed

Ye, Yu; Kerr, William C

2011-01-01

To explore various model specifications in estimating relationships between liver cirrhosis mortality rates and per capita alcohol consumption in aggregate-level cross-section time-series data. Using a series of liver cirrhosis mortality rates from 1950 to 2002 for 47 U.S. states, the effects of alcohol consumption were estimated from pooled autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and 4 types of panel data models: generalized estimating equation, generalized least square, fixed effect, and multilevel models. Various specifications of error term structure under each type of model were also examined. Different approaches controlling for time trends and for using concurrent or accumulated consumption as predictors were also evaluated. When cirrhosis mortality was predicted by total alcohol, highly consistent estimates were found between ARIMA and panel data analyses, with an average overall effect of 0.07 to 0.09. Less consistent estimates were derived using spirits, beer, and wine consumption as predictors. When multiple geographic time series are combined as panel data, none of existent models could accommodate all sources of heterogeneity such that any type of panel model must employ some form of generalization. Different types of panel data models should thus be estimated to examine the robustness of findings. We also suggest cautious interpretation when beverage-specific volumes are used as predictors. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Age Estimation of Infants Through Metric Analysis of Developing Anterior Deciduous Teeth.

PubMed

Viciano, Joan; De Luca, Stefano; Irurita, Javier; Alemán, Inmaculada

2018-01-01

This study provides regression equations for estimation of age of infants from the dimensions of their developing deciduous teeth. The sample comprises 97 individuals of known sex and age (62 boys, 35 girls), aged between 2 days and 1,081 days. The age-estimation equations were obtained for the sexes combined, as well as for each sex separately, thus including "sex" as an independent variable. The values of the correlations and determination coefficients obtained for each regression equation indicate good fits for most of the equations obtained. The "sex" factor was statistically significant when included as an independent variable in seven of the regression equations. However, the "sex" factor provided an advantage for age estimation in only three of the equations, compared to those that did not include "sex" as a factor. These data suggest that the ages of infants can be accurately estimated from measurements of their developing deciduous teeth. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 35 (RANDTH00650035) on Town Highway 65, crossing the Second Branch White River, Randolph, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

1996-01-01

It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 2 (BENNCYPARK0002) on Park Street, crossing Furnace Brook, Bennington, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

1997-01-01

size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 39 (STOWTH00160039) on Town Highway 16, crossing Moss Glen Brook, Stowe, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ivanoff, Michael A.; Hammond, Robert E.

1997-01-01

It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 7 (MORRTH00020007) on Town Highway 2 (FAS 239), crossing Ryder Brook, Morristown, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehmler, Erick M.; Hammond, Robert E.

1997-01-01

It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 11 (HINETH00040011) on Town Highway 4, crossing Lewis Creek, Hinesburg, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ivanoff, Michael A.; Burns, Ronda L.

1997-01-01

size distribution. It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 39 (PEACTH00620039) on Town Highway 62, crossing South Peacham Brook, Peacham, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Ronda L.; Degnan, James R.

1997-01-01

It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 137 (FERRUS00070137) on U.S. Route 7, crossing Little Otter Creek, Ferrisburg, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehmler, Erick M.; Burns, Ronda L.

1997-01-01

It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Level II scour analysis for Bridge 19 (CHARTH00390019) on Town Highway 39, crossing Mad Brook, Charleston, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boehmler, Erick M.; Hammond, Robert E.

1997-01-01

It is generally accepted that the Froehlich equation (abutment scour) gives “excessively conservative estimates of scour depths” (Richardson and others, 1995, p. 47). Usually, computed scour depths are evaluated in combination with other information including (but not limited to) historical performance during flood events, the geomorphic stability assessment, existing scour protection measures, and the results of the hydraulic analyses. Therefore, scour depths adopted by VTAOT may differ from the computed values documented herein.

Alternative Regression Equations for Estimation of Annual Peak-Streamflow Frequency for Undeveloped Watersheds in Texas using PRESS Minimization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Thompson, David B.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and in partnership with Texas Tech University, investigated a refinement of the regional regression method and developed alternative equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for undeveloped watersheds in Texas. A common model for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency is based on the regional regression method. The current (2008) regional regression equations for 11 regions of Texas are based on log10 transformations of all regression variables (drainage area, main-channel slope, and watershed shape). Exclusive use of log10-transformation does not fully linearize the relations between the variables. As a result, some systematic bias remains in the current equations. The bias results in overestimation of peak streamflow for both the smallest and largest watersheds. The bias increases with increasing recurrence interval. The primary source of the bias is the discernible curvilinear relation in log10 space between peak streamflow and drainage area. Bias is demonstrated by selected residual plots with superimposed LOWESS trend lines. To address the bias, a statistical framework based on minimization of the PRESS statistic through power transformation of drainage area is described and implemented, and the resulting regression equations are reported. Compared to log10-exclusive equations, the equations derived from PRESS minimization have PRESS statistics and residual standard errors less than the log10 exclusive equations. Selected residual plots for the PRESS-minimized equations are presented to demonstrate that systematic bias in regional regression equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation in Texas can be reduced. Because the overall error is similar to the error associated with previous equations and because the bias is reduced, the PRESS-minimized equations reported here provide alternative equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation.

Estimating equations for glomerular filtration rate in the era of creatinine standardization: a systematic review.

PubMed

Earley, Amy; Miskulin, Dana; Lamb, Edmund J; Levey, Andrew S; Uhlig, Katrin

2012-06-05

Clinical laboratories are increasingly reporting estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by using serum creatinine assays traceable to a standard reference material. To review the performance of GFR estimating equations to inform the selection of a single equation by laboratories and the interpretation of estimated GFR by clinicians. A systematic search of MEDLINE, without language restriction, between 1999 and 21 October 2011. Cross-sectional studies in adults that compared the performance of 2 or more creatinine-based GFR estimating equations with a reference GFR measurement. Eligible equations were derived or reexpressed and validated by using creatinine measurements traceable to the standard reference material. Reviewers extracted data on study population characteristics, measured GFR, creatinine assay, and equation performance. Eligible studies compared the MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) Study and CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) equations or modifications thereof. In 12 studies in North America, Europe, and Australia, the CKD-EPI equation performed better at higher GFRs (approximately >60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)) and the MDRD Study equation performed better at lower GFRs. In 5 of 8 studies in Asia and Africa, the equations were modified to improve their performance by adding a coefficient derived in the local population or removing a coefficient. Methods of GFR measurement and study populations were heterogeneous. Neither the CKD-EPI nor the MDRD Study equation is optimal for all populations and GFR ranges. Using a single equation for reporting requires a tradeoff to optimize performance at either higher or lower GFR ranges. A general practice and public health perspective favors the CKD-EPI equation. Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes.

Estimation of the Earth's gravity field by combining normal equation matrices from GRACE and SLR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberkorn, Christoph; Bloßfeld, Mathis; Bouman, Johannes

2014-05-01

Since 2002, GRACE observes the Earth's gravity field with a spatial resolution up to 150 km. The main goal of this mission is the determination of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field to detect mass displacements. The GRACE mission consists of two identical satellites, which observe the range along the line of sight of both satellites. GRACE observations can be linked with the Earth's gravitational potential, which is expressed in terms of spherical harmonics for global solutions. However, the estimation of low degree coefficients is difficult with GRACE. In contrast to gravity field missions, which observe the gravity field with high spectral resolution, SLR data allow to estimate the lower degree coefficients. Therefore, the coefficient C20 is often replaced by a value derived from Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR). Instead of replacing C20, it can be determined consistently by a combined estimation using GRACE and SLR data. We compute monthly normal equation (NEQ) matrices for GRACE and SLR. Coefficients from monthly GRACE gravity field models of different institutions (Center for Space Research (CSR), USA, Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Germany and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), USA) and coefficients from monthly gravity field models of our SLR processing are then combined using the NEQ matrices from both techniques. We will evaluate several test scenarios with gravity field models from different institutions and with different set ups for the SLR NEQ matrices. The effect of the combination on the estimated gravity field will be analysed and presented.

Estimating Slash Quantity from Standing Loblolly Pine

Treesearch

Dale D. Wade

1969-01-01

No significant difference were found between variances of two prediction equations for estimating loblolly pine crown weight from diameter breast height (d.b.h). One equation was developed from trees on the Georgia Piedmont and the other from tress on the South Carolina Coastal Plain. An equation and table are presented for estimating loblolly pine slash weights from...

Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winkel, Brian

2011-01-01

We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

Estimating glomerular filtration rate in black South Africans by use of the modification of diet in renal disease and Cockcroft-Gault equations.

PubMed

van Deventer, Hendrick E; George, Jaya A; Paiker, Janice E; Becker, Piet J; Katz, Ivor J

2008-07-01

The 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (4-v MDRD) and Cockcroft-Gault (CG) equations are commonly used for estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR); however, neither of these equations has been validated in an indigenous African population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the 4-v MDRD and CG equations for estimating GFR in black South Africans against measured GFR and to assess the appropriateness for the local population of the ethnicity factor established for African Americans in the 4-v MDRD equation. We enrolled 100 patients in the study. The plasma clearance of chromium-51-EDTA ((51)Cr-EDTA) was used to measure GFR, and serum creatinine was measured using an isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) traceable assay. We estimated GFR using both the reexpressed 4-v MDRD and CG equations and compared it to measured GFR using 4 modalities: correlation coefficient, weighted Deming regression analysis, percentage bias, and proportion of estimated GFR within 30% of measured GFR (P(30)). The Spearman correlation coefficient between measured and estimated GFR for both equations was similar (4-v MDRD R(2) = 0.80 and CG R(2) = 0.79). Using the 4-v MDRD equation with the ethnicity factor of 1.212 as established for African Americans resulted in a median positive bias of 13.1 (95% CI 5.5 to 18.3) mL/min/1.73 m(2). Without the ethnicity factor, median bias was 1.9 (95% CI -0.8 to 4.5) mL/min/1.73 m(2). The 4-v MDRD equation, without the ethnicity factor of 1.212, can be used for estimating GFR in black South Africans.

Estimation of Sonic Fatigue by Reduced-Order Finite Element Based Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.; Przekop, Adam

2006-01-01

A computationally efficient, reduced-order method is presented for prediction of sonic fatigue of structures exhibiting geometrically nonlinear response. A procedure to determine the nonlinear modal stiffness using commercial finite element codes allows the coupled nonlinear equations of motion in physical degrees of freedom to be transformed to a smaller coupled system of equations in modal coordinates. The nonlinear modal system is first solved using a computationally light equivalent linearization solution to determine if the structure responds to the applied loading in a nonlinear fashion. If so, a higher fidelity numerical simulation in modal coordinates is undertaken to more accurately determine the nonlinear response. Comparisons of displacement and stress response obtained from the reduced-order analyses are made with results obtained from numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. Fatigue life predictions from nonlinear modal and physical simulations are made using the rainflow cycle counting method in a linear cumulative damage analysis. Results computed for a simple beam structure under a random acoustic loading demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach and compare favorably with results obtained from the solution in physical degrees-of-freedom.

Comparison of anthropometric-based equations for estimation of body fat percentage in a normal-weight and overweight female cohort: validation via air-displacement plethysmography.

PubMed

Temple, Derry; Denis, Romain; Walsh, Marianne C; Dicker, Patrick; Byrne, Annette T

2015-02-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the most commonly used anthropometric-based equations in the estimation of percentage body fat (%BF) in both normal-weight and overweight women using air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) as the criterion measure. A comparative study in which the equations of Durnin and Womersley (1974; DW) and Jackson, Pollock and Ward (1980) at three, four and seven sites (JPW₃, JPW₄ and JPW₇) were validated against ADP in three groups. Group 1 included all participants, group 2 included participants with a BMI <25·0 kg/m² and group 3 included participants with a BMI ≥25·0 kg/m². Human Performance Laboratory, Institute for Sport and Health, University College Dublin, Republic of Ireland. Forty-three female participants aged between 18 and 55 years. In all three groups, the %BF values estimated from the DW equation were closer to the criterion measure (i.e. ADP) than those estimated from the other equations. Of the three JPW equations, JPW₃ provided the most accurate estimation of %BF when compared with ADP in all three groups. In comparison to ADP, these findings suggest that the DW equation is the most accurate anthropometric method for the estimation of %BF in both normal-weight and overweight females.

A General Linear Method for Equating with Small Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albano, Anthony D.

2015-01-01

Research on equating with small samples has shown that methods with stronger assumptions and fewer statistical estimates can lead to decreased error in the estimated equating function. This article introduces a new approach to linear observed-score equating, one which provides flexible control over how form difficulty is assumed versus estimated…

Assessing the Reliability of Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency Equations for Gauged and Ungauged Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Montanari, A.; Brath, A.

2002-12-01

The study derives Regional Depth-Duration-Frequency (RDDF) equations for a wide region of northern-central Italy (37,200 km 2) by following an adaptation of the approach originally proposed by Alila [WRR, 36(7), 2000]. The proposed RDDF equations have a rather simple structure and allow an estimation of the design storm, defined as the rainfall depth expected for a given storm duration and recurrence interval, in any location of the study area for storm durations from 1 to 24 hours and for recurrence intervals up to 100 years. The reliability of the proposed RDDF equations represents the main concern of the study and it is assessed at two different levels. The first level considers the gauged sites and compares estimates of the design storm obtained with the RDDF equations with at-site estimates based upon the observed annual maximum series of rainfall depth and with design storm estimates resulting from a regional estimator recently developed for the study area through a Hierarchical Regional Approach (HRA) [Gabriele and Arnell, WRR, 27(6), 1991]. The second level performs a reliability assessment of the RDDF equations for ungauged sites by means of a jack-knife procedure. Using the HRA estimator as a reference term, the jack-knife procedure assesses the reliability of design storm estimates provided by the RDDF equations for a given location when dealing with the complete absence of pluviometric information. The results of the analysis show that the proposed RDDF equations represent practical and effective computational means for producing a first guess of the design storm at the available raingauges and reliable design storm estimates for ungauged locations. The first author gratefully acknowledges D.H. Burn for sponsoring the submission of the present abstract.

Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children. The average between a cystatin C- and a creatinine-based equation improves estimation of GFR in both children and adults and enables diagnosing Shrunken Pore Syndrome.

PubMed

Leion, Felicia; Hegbrant, Josefine; den Bakker, Emil; Jonsson, Magnus; Abrahamson, Magnus; Nyman, Ulf; Björk, Jonas; Lindström, Veronica; Larsson, Anders; Bökenkamp, Arend; Grubb, Anders

2017-09-01

Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in adults by using the average of values obtained by a cystatin C- (eGFR cystatin C ) and a creatinine-based (eGFR creatinine ) equation shows at least the same diagnostic performance as GFR estimates obtained by equations using only one of these analytes or by complex equations using both analytes. Comparison of eGFR cystatin C and eGFR creatinine plays a pivotal role in the diagnosis of Shrunken Pore Syndrome, where low eGFR cystatin C compared to eGFR creatinine has been associated with higher mortality in adults. The present study was undertaken to elucidate if this concept can also be applied in children. Using iohexol and inulin clearance as gold standard in 702 children, we studied the diagnostic performance of 10 creatinine-based, 5 cystatin C-based and 3 combined cystatin C-creatinine eGFR equations and compared them to the result of the average of 9 pairs of a eGFR cystatin C and a eGFR creatinine estimate. While creatinine-based GFR estimations are unsuitable in children unless calibrated in a pediatric or mixed pediatric-adult population, cystatin C-based estimations in general performed well in children. The average of a suitable creatinine-based and a cystatin C-based equation generally displayed a better diagnostic performance than estimates obtained by equations using only one of these analytes or by complex equations using both analytes. Comparing eGFR cystatin and eGFR creatinine may help identify pediatric patients with Shrunken Pore Syndrome.

A modified exponential behavioral economic demand model to better describe consumption data.

PubMed

Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Franck, Christopher T; Stein, Jeffrey S; Bickel, Warren K

2015-12-01

Behavioral economic demand analyses that quantify the relationship between the consumption of a commodity and its price have proven useful in studying the reinforcing efficacy of many commodities, including drugs of abuse. An exponential equation proposed by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) has proven useful in quantifying the dissociable components of demand intensity and demand elasticity, but is limited as an analysis technique by the inability to correctly analyze consumption values of zero. We examined an exponentiated version of this equation that retains all the beneficial features of the original Hursh and Silberberg equation, but can accommodate consumption values of zero and improves its fit to the data. In Experiment 1, we compared the modified equation with the unmodified equation under different treatments of zero values in cigarette consumption data collected online from 272 participants. We found that the unmodified equation produces different results depending on how zeros are treated, while the exponentiated version incorporates zeros into the analysis, accounts for more variance, and is better able to estimate actual unconstrained consumption as reported by participants. In Experiment 2, we simulated 1,000 datasets with demand parameters known a priori and compared the equation fits. Results indicated that the exponentiated equation was better able to replicate the true values from which the test data were simulated. We conclude that an exponentiated version of the Hursh and Silberberg equation provides better fits to the data, is able to fit all consumption values including zero, and more accurately produces true parameter values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimating value and volume of ponderosa pine trees by equations.

Treesearch

Martin E. Plank

1981-01-01

Equations for estimating the selling value and tally volume for ponderosa pine lumber from the standing trees are described. Only five characteristics are required for the equations. Development and application of the system are described.

First-Order System Least Squares for the Stokes Equations, with Application to Linear Elasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cai, Z.; Manteuffel, T. A.; McCormick, S. F.

1996-01-01

Following our earlier work on general second-order scalar equations, here we develop a least-squares functional for the two- and three-dimensional Stokes equations, generalized slightly by allowing a pressure term in the continuity equation. By introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations, we are able to establish ellipticity in an H(exp 1) product norm appropriately weighted by the Reynolds number. This immediately yields optimal discretization error estimates for finite element spaces in this norm and optimal algebraic convergence estimates for multiplicative and additive multigrid methods applied to the resulting discrete systems. Both estimates are uniform in the Reynolds number. Moreover, our pressure-perturbed form of the generalized Stokes equations allows us to develop an analogous result for the Dirichlet problem for linear elasticity with estimates that are uniform in the Lame constants.

Measurements of the talus in the assessment of population affinity.

PubMed

Bidmos, Mubarak A; Dayal, Manisha R; Adegboye, Oyelola A

2018-06-01

As part of their routine work, forensic anthropologists are expected to report population affinity as part of the biological profile of an individual. The skull is the most widely used bone for the estimation of population affinity but it is not always present in a forensic case. Thus, other bones that preserve well have been shown to give a good indication of either the sex or population affinity of an individual. In this study, the potential of measurements of the talus was investigated for the purpose of estimating population affinity in South Africans. Nine measurements from two hundred and twenty tali of South African Africans (SAA) and South African Whites (SAW) from the Raymond A. Dart Collection of Human Skeletons were used. Direct and step-wise discriminant function and logistic regression analyses were carried out using SPSS and SAS. Talar length was the best single variable for discriminating between these two groups for males while in females the head height was the best single predictor. Average accuracies for correct population affinity classification using logistic regression analysis were higher than those obtained from discriminant function analysis. This study was the first of its type to employ discriminant function analyses and logistic regression analyses to estimate the population affinity of an individual from the talus. Thus these equations can now be used by South African anthropologists when estimating the population affinity of dismembered or damaged or incomplete skeletal remains of SAA and SAW. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using machine learning to model dose-response relationships.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K

2016-12-01

Establishing the relationship between various doses of an exposure and a response variable is integral to many studies in health care. Linear parametric models, widely used for estimating dose-response relationships, have several limitations. This paper employs the optimal discriminant analysis (ODA) machine-learning algorithm to determine the degree to which exposure dose can be distinguished based on the distribution of the response variable. By framing the dose-response relationship as a classification problem, machine learning can provide the same functionality as conventional models, but can additionally make individual-level predictions, which may be helpful in practical applications like establishing responsiveness to prescribed drug regimens. Using data from a study measuring the responses of blood flow in the forearm to the intra-arterial administration of isoproterenol (separately for 9 black and 13 white men, and pooled), we compare the results estimated from a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model with those estimated using ODA. Generalized estimating equations and ODA both identified many statistically significant dose-response relationships, separately by race and for pooled data. Post hoc comparisons between doses indicated ODA (based on exact P values) was consistently more conservative than GEE (based on estimated P values). Compared with ODA, GEE produced twice as many instances of paradoxical confounding (findings from analysis of pooled data that are inconsistent with findings from analyses stratified by race). Given its unique advantages and greater analytic flexibility, maximum-accuracy machine-learning methods like ODA should be considered as the primary analytic approach in dose-response applications. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment and correction of skinfold thickness equations in estimating body fat in children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Gurka, Matthew J; Kuperminc, Michelle N; Busby, Marjorie G; Bennis, Jacey A; Grossberg, Richard I; Houlihan, Christine M; Stevenson, Richard D; Henderson, Richard C

2010-02-01

To assess the accuracy of skinfold equations in estimating percentage body fat in children with cerebral palsy (CP), compared with assessment of body fat from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Data were collected from 71 participants (30 females, 41 males) with CP (Gross Motor Function Classification System [GMFCS] levels I-V) between the ages of 8 and 18 years. Estimated percentage body fat was computed using established (Slaughter) equations based on the triceps and subscapular skinfolds. A linear model was fitted to assess the use of a simple correction to these equations for children with CP. Slaughter's equations consistently underestimated percentage body fat (mean difference compared with DXA percentage body fat -9.6/100 [SD 6.2]; 95% confidence interval [CI] -11.0 to -8.1). New equations were developed in which a correction factor was added to the existing equations based on sex, race, GMFCS level, size, and pubertal status. These corrected equations for children with CP agree better with DXA (mean difference 0.2/100 [SD=4.8]; 95% CI -1.0 to 1.3) than existing equations. A simple correction factor to commonly used equations substantially improves the ability to estimate percentage body fat from two skinfold measures in children with CP.

Validation of Core Temperature Estimation Algorithm

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-29

plot of observed versus estimated core temperature with the line of identity (dashed) and the least squares regression line (solid) and line equation...estimated PSI with the line of identity (dashed) and the least squares regression line (solid) and line equation in the top left corner. (b) Bland...for comparison. The root mean squared error (RMSE) was also computed, as given by Equation 2.

Gradient estimates on the weighted p-Laplace heat equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lin Feng

2018-01-01

In this paper, by a regularization process we derive new gradient estimates for positive solutions to the weighted p-Laplace heat equation when the m-Bakry-Émery curvature is bounded from below by -K for some constant K ≥ 0. When the potential function is constant, which reduce to the gradient estimate established by Ni and Kotschwar for positive solutions to the p-Laplace heat equation on closed manifolds with nonnegative Ricci curvature if K ↘ 0, and reduce to the Davies, Hamilton and Li-Xu's gradient estimates for positive solutions to the heat equation on closed manifolds with Ricci curvature bounded from below if p = 2.

Improvement of Method for Estimation of Site Amplification Factor Based on Average Shear-wave Velocity of Ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Makoto; Midorikawa, Saburoh

The empirical equation for estimating the site amplification factor of ground motion by the average shear-wave velocity of ground (AVS) is examined. In the existing equations, the coefficient on dependence of the amplification factor on the AVS was treated as constant. The analysis showed that the coefficient varies with change of the AVS for short periods. A new estimation equation was proposed considering the dependence on the AVS. The new equation can represent soil characteristics that the softer soil has the longer predominant period, and can make better estimations for short periods than the existing method.

Accuracy of prediction equations for serum osmolarity in frail older people with and without diabetes1234

PubMed Central

Siervo, Mario; Bunn, Diane; Prado, Carla M; Hooper, Lee

2014-01-01

Background: Serum osmolality is an accurate indicator of hydration status in older adults. Glucose, urea, and electrolyte concentrations are used to calculate serum osmolarity, which is an indirect estimate of serum osmolality, but which serum osmolarity equations best predict serum osmolality in the elderly is unclear. Objective: We assessed the agreement of measured serum osmolality with calculated serum osmolarity equations in older people. Design: Serum osmolality was measured by using freezing point depression in a cross-sectional study. Plasma glucose, urea, and electrolytes were analyzed and entered into 38 serum osmolarity-prediction equations. The Bland-Altman method was used to evaluate the agreement and differential bias between measured osmolality and calculated osmolarity. The sensitivity and specificity of the most-promising equations were examined against serum osmolality (reference standard). Results: A total of 186 people living in UK residential care took part in the Dehydration Recognition In our Elders study (66% women; mean ± SD age: 85.8 ± 7.9 y; with a range of cognitive and physical impairments) and were included in analyses. Forty-six percent of participants had impending or current dehydration (serum osmolality ≥295 mmol/kg). Participants with diabetes (n = 33; 18%) had higher glucose (P < 0.001) and serum osmolality (P < 0.01). Of 38 predictive equations used to calculate osmolarity, 4 equations showed reasonable agreement with measured osmolality. One [calculated osmolarity = 1.86 × (Na+ + K+) + 1.15 × glucose + urea +14; all in mmol/L] was characterized by narrower limits of agreement and the capacity to predict serum osmolality within 2% in >80% of participants, regardless of diabetes or hydration status. The equation's sensitivity (79%) and specificity (89%) for impending dehydration (≥295 mmol/kg) and current dehydration (>300 mmol/kg) (69% and 93%, respectively) were reasonable. Conclusions: The assessment of a panel of equations for the prediction of serum osmolarity led to identification of one formula with a greater diagnostic performance. This equation may be used to predict hydration status in frail older people (as a first-stage screening) or to estimate hydration status in population studies. This trial was registered at the Research Register for Social Care (http://www.researchregister.org.uk) as 122273. PMID:25030781

Measuring the neutron star tidal deformability with equation-of-state-independent relations and gravitational waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatziioannou, Katerina; Haster, Carl-Johan; Zimmerman, Aaron

2018-05-01

Gravitational wave measurements of binary neutron star coalescences offer information about the properties of the extreme matter that comprises the stars. Despite our expectation that all neutron stars in the Universe obey the same equation of state, i.e. the properties of the matter that forms them are universal, current tidal inference analyses treat the two bodies as independent. We present a method to measure the effect of tidal interactions in the gravitational wave signal—and hence constrain the equation of state—that assumes that the two binary components obey the same equation of state. Our method makes use of a relation between the tidal deformabilities of the two stars given the ratio of their masses, a relation that has been shown to only have a weak dependence on the equation of state. We use this to link the tidal deformabilities of the two stars in a realistic parameter inference study while simultaneously marginalizing over the error in the relation. This approach incorporates more physical information into our analysis, thus leading to a better measurement of tidal effects in gravitational wave signals. Through simulated signals we estimate that uncertainties in the measured tidal parameters are reduced by a factor of at least 2—and in some cases up to 10—depending on the equation of state and mass ratio of the system.

Effect of individual parameter changes on the outcome of the estimated short-term dietary exposure to pesticides.

PubMed

van der Velde-Koerts, Trijntje; Breysse, Nicolas; Pattingre, Lauriane; Hamey, Paul Y; Lutze, Jason; Mahieu, Karin; Margerison, Sam; Ossendorp, Bernadette C; Reich, Hermine; Rietveld, Anton; Sarda, Xavier; Vial, Gaelle; Sieke, Christian

2018-06-03

In 2015 a scientific workshop was held in Geneva, where updating the International Estimate of Short-Term Intake (IESTI) equations was suggested. This paper studies the effects of the proposed changes in residue inputs, large portions, variability factors and unit weights on the overall short-term dietary exposure estimate. Depending on the IESTI case equation, a median increase in estimated overall exposure by a factor of 1.0-6.8 was observed when the current IESTI equations are replaced by the proposed IESTI equations. The highest increase in the estimated exposure arises from the replacement of the median residue (STMR) by the maximum residue limit (MRL) for bulked and blended commodities (case 3 equations). The change in large portion parameter does not have a significant impact on the estimated exposure. The use of large portions derived from the general population covering all age groups and bodyweights should be avoided when large portions are not expressed on an individual bodyweight basis. Replacement of the highest residue (HR) by the MRL and removal of the unit weight each increase the estimated exposure for small-, medium- and large-sized commodities (case 1, case 2a or case 2b equations). However, within the EU framework lowering of the variability factor from 7 or 5 to 3 counterbalances the effect of changes in other parameters, resulting in an estimated overall exposure change for the EU situation of a factor of 0.87-1.7 and 0.6-1.4 for IESTI case 2a and case 2b equations, respectively.

Peak flow regression equations For small, ungaged streams in Maine: Comparing map-based to field-based variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2015-01-01

Regression equations to estimate peak streamflows with 1- to 500-year recurrence intervals (annual exceedance probabilities from 99 to 0.2 percent, respectively) were developed for small, ungaged streams in Maine. Equations presented here are the best available equations for estimating peak flows at ungaged basins in Maine with drainage areas from 0.3 to 12 square miles (mi2). Previously developed equations continue to be the best available equations for estimating peak flows for basin areas greater than 12 mi2. New equations presented here are based on streamflow records at 40 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages with a minimum of 10 years of recorded peak flows between 1963 and 2012. Ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the best explanatory variables for the regression equations. Traditional map-based explanatory variables were compared to variables requiring field measurements. Two field-based variables—culvert rust lines and bankfull channel widths—either were not commonly found or did not explain enough of the variability in the peak flows to warrant inclusion in the equations. The best explanatory variables were drainage area and percent basin wetlands; values for these variables were determined with a geographic information system. Generalized least-squares regression was used with these two variables to determine the equation coefficients and estimates of accuracy for the final equations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prince, K.R.; Schneider, B.J.

This study obtained estimates of the hydraulic properties of the upper glacial and Magothy aquifers in the East Meadow area for use in analyzing the movement of reclaimed waste water through the aquifer system. This report presents drawdown and recovery data form the two aquifer tests of 1978 and 1985, describes the six methods of analysis used, and summarizes the results of the analyses in tables and graphs. The drawdown and recovery data were analyzed through three simple analytical equations, two curve-matching techniques, and a finite-element radial-flow model. The resulting estimates of hydraulic conductivity, anisotropy, and storage characteristics were usedmore » as initial input values to the finite-element radial-flow model (Reilly, 1984). The flow model was then used to refine the estimates of the aquifer properties by more accurately representing the aquifer geometry and field conditions of the pumping tests.« less

Evidence of a Major Gene From Bayesian Segregation Analyses of Liability to Osteochondral Diseases in Pigs

PubMed Central

Kadarmideen, Haja N.; Janss, Luc L. G.

2005-01-01

Bayesian segregation analyses were used to investigate the mode of inheritance of osteochondral lesions (osteochondrosis, OC) in pigs. Data consisted of 1163 animals with OC and their pedigrees included 2891 animals. Mixed-inheritance threshold models (MITM) and several variants of MITM, in conjunction with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, were developed for the analysis of these (categorical) data. Results showed major genes with significant and substantially higher variances (range 1.384–37.81), compared to the polygenic variance (\\documentclass[10pt]{article} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\pagestyle{empty} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} \\begin{equation*}{\\mathrm{{\\sigma}}}_{{\\mathrm{u}}}^{2}\\end{equation*}\\end{document}). Consequently, heritabilities for a mixed inheritance (range 0.65–0.90) were much higher than the heritabilities from the polygenes. Disease allele frequencies range was 0.38–0.88. Additional analyses estimating the transmission probabilities of the major gene showed clear evidence for Mendelian segregation of a major gene affecting osteochondrosis. The variants, MITM with informative prior on \\documentclass[10pt]{article} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\pagestyle{empty} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} \\begin{equation*}{\\mathrm{{\\sigma}}}_{{\\mathrm{u}}}^{2}\\end{equation*}\\end{document}, showed significant improvement in marginal distributions and accuracy of parameters. MITM with a “reduced polygenic model” for parameterization of polygenic effects avoided convergence problems and poor mixing encountered in an “individual polygenic model.” In all cases, “shrinkage estimators” for fixed effects avoided unidentifiability for these parameters. The mixed-inheritance linear model (MILM) was also applied to all OC lesions and compared with the MITM. This is the first study to report evidence of major genes for osteochondral lesions in pigs; these results may also form a basis for underpinning the genetic inheritance of this disease in other animals as well as in humans. PMID:16020792

Estimating Dynamical Systems: Derivative Estimation Hints From Sir Ronald A. Fisher.

PubMed

Deboeck, Pascal R

2010-08-06

The fitting of dynamical systems to psychological data offers the promise of addressing new and innovative questions about how people change over time. One method of fitting dynamical systems is to estimate the derivatives of a time series and then examine the relationships between derivatives using a differential equation model. One common approach for estimating derivatives, Local Linear Approximation (LLA), produces estimates with correlated errors. Depending on the specific differential equation model used, such correlated errors can lead to severely biased estimates of differential equation model parameters. This article shows that the fitting of dynamical systems can be improved by estimating derivatives in a manner similar to that used to fit orthogonal polynomials. Two applications using simulated data compare the proposed method and a generalized form of LLA when used to estimate derivatives and when used to estimate differential equation model parameters. A third application estimates the frequency of oscillation in observations of the monthly deaths from bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma in the United Kingdom. These data are publicly available in the statistical program R, and functions in R for the method presented are provided.

Reaeration equations derived from U.S. geological survey database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Flores, H.E.

1999-01-01

Accurate estimation of the reaeration-rate coefficient (K2) is extremely important for waste-load allocation. Currently, available K2 estimation equations generally yield poor estimates when applied to stream conditions different from those for which the equations were derived because they were derived from small databases composed of potentially highly inaccurate measurements. A large data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas methods was compiled from U.S. Geological Survey studies. This compilation included 493 reaches on 166 streams in 23 states. Careful screening to detect and eliminate erroneous measurements reduced the date set to 371 measurements. These measurements were divided into four subgroups on the basis of flow regime (channel control or pool and riffle) and stream scale (discharge greater than or less than 0.556 m3/s). Multiple linear regression in logarithms was applied to relate K2 to 12 stream hydraulic and water-quality characteristics. The resulting best-estimation equations had the form of semiempirical equations that included the rate of energy dissipation and discharge or depth and width as variables. For equation verification, a data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas procedures by other agencies was compiled from the literature. This compilation included 127 reaches on at least 24 streams in at least seven states. The standard error of estimate obtained when applying the developed equations to the U.S. Geological Survey data set ranged from 44 to 61%, whereas the standard error of estimate was 78% when applied to the verification data set.Accurate estimation of the reaeration-rate coefficient (K2) is extremely important for waste-load allocation. Currently, available K2 estimation equations generally yield poor estimates when applied to stream conditions different from those for which the equations were derived because they were derived from small databases composed of potentially highly inaccurate measurements. A large data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas methods was compiled from U.S. Geological Survey studies. This compilation included 493 reaches on 166 streams in 23 states. Careful screening to detect and eliminate erroneous measurements reduced the data set to 371 measurements. These measurements were divided into four subgroups on the basis of flow regime (channel control or pool and riffle) and stream scale (discharge greater than or less than 0.556 m3/s). Multiple linear regression in logarithms was applied to relate K2 to 12 stream hydraulic and water-quality characteristics. The resulting best-estimation equations had the form of semiempirical equations that included the rate of energy dissipation and discharge or depth and width as variables. For equation verification, a data set of K2 measurements made with tracer-gas procedures by other agencies was compiled from the literature. This compilation included 127 reaches on at least 24 streams in at least seven states. The standard error of estimate obtained when applying the developed equations to the U.S. Geological Survey data set ranged from 44 to 61%, whereas the standard error of estimate was 78% when applied to the verification data set.

Estimation of the cost of electro-mechanical equipment for small hydropower plants - review and comparison of methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiński, Seweryn; Olkowski, Tomasz

2017-10-01

The estimate of the cost of electro-mechanical equipment for new small hydropower plants most often amounts to about 30-40% of the total budget. In case of modernization of existing installations, this estimation represents the main cost. This matter constitutes a research problem for at least few decades. Many models have been developed for that purpose. The aim of our work was to collect and analyse formulas that allow estimation of the cost of investment in electro-mechanical equipment for small hydropower plants. Over a dozen functions were analysed. To achieve the aim of our work, these functions were converted into the form allowing their comparison. Then the costs were simulated with respect to plants' powers and net heads; such approach is novel and allows deeper discussion of the problem, as well as drawing broader conclusions. The following conclusions can be drawn: significant differences in results obtained by using various formulas were observed; there is a need for a wide study based on national investments in small hydropower plants that would allow to develop equations based on local data; the obtained formulas would let to determinate the costs of modernization or a new construction of small hydropower plant more precisely; special attention should be payed to formulas considering turbine type.

Biodegradation kinetics of thin-stillage treatment by Aspergillus awamori and characterization of recovered chitosan.

PubMed

Ray, S Ghosh; Ghangrekar, M M

2016-02-01

An attempt has been made to provide solution for distillery wastewater using fungal pretreatment followed by an anaerobic process to achieve higher organic matter removal, which is a challenge at present with currently adopted technologies. Submerged growth kinetics of distillery wastewater supernatant by Aspergillus awamori was also evaluated. The proposed kinetic models using a logistic equation for fungal growth and the Leudeking-Piret equation for product formation were validated experimentally, and substrate consumption equation was derived using estimated kinetic coefficients. Up to 59.6 % chemical oxygen demand (COD) and 70 % total organic carbon (TOC) removals were observed in 96 h of fungal incubation. Maximum specific growth rate of fungi, coefficient of biomass yield on substrate and growth-associated product formation coefficient were estimated to be 0.07 ± 0.01 h(-1), 0.614 kg biomass/kg utilized COD and 0.215 kg CO2/kg utilized TOC, respectively. The chitosan recovery of 0.072-0.078 kg/kg of dry mycelium was obtained using dilute sulphuric acid extraction, showing high purity and characteristic chitosan properties according to FTIR and XRD analyses. After anaerobic treatment of the fungal pretreated effluent with COD concentration of 7.920 ± 0.120 kg COD/m(3) (organic loading rate of 3.28 kg COD/m(3) day), overall COD reduction of 91.07 % was achieved from distillery wastewater.

Efficacy of generic allometric equations for estimating biomass: a test in Japanese natural forests.

PubMed

Ishihara, Masae I; Utsugi, Hajime; Tanouchi, Hiroyuki; Aiba, Masahiro; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Onoda, Yusuke; Nagano, Masahiro; Umehara, Toru; Ando, Makoto; Miyata, Rie; Hiura, Tsutom

2015-07-01

Accurate estimation of tree and forest biomass is key to evaluating forest ecosystem functions and the global carbon cycle. Allometric equations that estimate tree biomass from a set of predictors, such as stem diameter and tree height, are commonly used. Most allometric equations are site specific, usually developed from a small number of trees harvested in a small area, and are either species specific or ignore interspecific differences in allometry. Due to lack of site-specific allometries, local equations are often applied to sites for which they were not originally developed (foreign sites), sometimes leading to large errors in biomass estimates. In this study, we developed generic allometric equations for aboveground biomass and component (stem, branch, leaf, and root) biomass using large, compiled data sets of 1203 harvested trees belonging to 102 species (60 deciduous angiosperm, 32 evergreen angiosperm, and 10 evergreen gymnosperm species) from 70 boreal, temperate, and subtropical natural forests in Japan. The best generic equations provided better biomass estimates than did local equations that were applied to foreign sites. The best generic equations included explanatory variables that represent interspecific differences in allometry in addition to stem diameter, reducing error by 4-12% compared to the generic equations that did not include the interspecific difference. Different explanatory variables were selected for different components. For aboveground and stem biomass, the best generic equations had species-specific wood specific gravity as an explanatory variable. For branch, leaf, and root biomass, the best equations had functional types (deciduous angiosperm, evergreen angiosperm, and evergreen gymnosperm) instead of functional traits (wood specific gravity or leaf mass per area), suggesting importance of other traits in addition to these traits, such as canopy and root architecture. Inclusion of tree height in addition to stem diameter improved the performance of the generic equation only for stem biomass and had no apparent effect on aboveground, branch, leaf, and root biomass at the site level. The development of a generic allometric equation taking account of interspecific differences is an effective approach for accurately estimating aboveground and component biomass in boreal, temperate, and subtropical natural forests.

Estimating residual kidney function in dialysis patients without urine collection

PubMed Central

Shafi, Tariq; Michels, Wieneke M.; Levey, Andrew S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Hoekstra, Tiny; Schwartz, George J.; Eckfeldt, John H.; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

Residual kidney function contributes substantially to solute clearance in dialysis patients but cannot be assessed without urine collection. We used serum filtration markers to develop dialysis-specific equations to estimate urinary urea clearance without the need for urine collection. In our development cohort, we measured 24-hour urine clearances under close supervision in 44 patients and validated these equations in 826 patients from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis. For the development and validation cohorts, median urinary urea clearance was 2.6 and 2.4 mL/min, respectively. During the 24-hour visit in the development cohort, serum β-trace protein concentrations remained in steady state but concentrations of all other markers increased. In the validation cohort, bias (median measured minus estimated clearance) was low for all equations. Precision was significantly better for β-trace protein and β2-microglobulin equations and the accuracy was significantly greater for β-trace protein, β2-microglobulin and cystatin C equations, compared with the urea plus creatinine equation. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for detecting measured urinary urea clearance by equation-estimated urinary urea clearance (both 2 mL/min or more) were 0.821, 0.850 and 0.796 for β-trace protein, β2-microglobulin and cystatin C equations, respectively; significantly greater than the 0.663 for the urea plus creatinine equation. Thus, residual renal function can be estimated in dialysis patients without urine collections. PMID:26924062

Estimating residual kidney function in dialysis patients without urine collection.

PubMed

Shafi, Tariq; Michels, Wieneke M; Levey, Andrew S; Inker, Lesley A; Dekker, Friedo W; Krediet, Raymond T; Hoekstra, Tiny; Schwartz, George J; Eckfeldt, John H; Coresh, Josef

2016-05-01

Residual kidney function contributes substantially to solute clearance in dialysis patients but cannot be assessed without urine collection. We used serum filtration markers to develop dialysis-specific equations to estimate urinary urea clearance without the need for urine collection. In our development cohort, we measured 24-hour urine clearances under close supervision in 44 patients and validated these equations in 826 patients from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis. For the development and validation cohorts, median urinary urea clearance was 2.6 and 2.4 ml/min, respectively. During the 24-hour visit in the development cohort, serum β-trace protein concentrations remained in steady state but concentrations of all other markers increased. In the validation cohort, bias (median measured minus estimated clearance) was low for all equations. Precision was significantly better for β-trace protein and β2-microglobulin equations and the accuracy was significantly greater for β-trace protein, β2-microglobulin, and cystatin C equations, compared with the urea plus creatinine equation. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for detecting measured urinary urea clearance by equation-estimated urinary urea clearance (both 2 ml/min or more) were 0.821, 0.850, and 0.796 for β-trace protein, β2-microglobulin, and cystatin C equations, respectively; significantly greater than the 0.663 for the urea plus creatinine equation. Thus, residual renal function can be estimated in dialysis patients without urine collections. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Comparison of three stand-level biomass estimation methods].

PubMed

Dong, Li Hu; Li, Feng Ri

2016-12-01

At present, the forest biomass methods of regional scale attract most of attention of the researchers, and developing the stand-level biomass model is popular. Based on the forestry inventory data of larch plantation (Larix olgensis) in Jilin Province, we used non-linear seemly unrelated regression (NSUR) to estimate the parameters in two additive system of stand-level biomass equations, i.e., stand-level biomass equations including the stand variables and stand biomass equations including the biomass expansion factor (i.e., Model system 1 and Model system 2), listed the constant biomass expansion factor for larch plantation and compared the prediction accuracy of three stand-level biomass estimation methods. The results indicated that for two additive system of biomass equations, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) of the total and stem equations was more than 0.95, the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean prediction error (MPE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were smaller. The branch and foliage biomass equations were worse than total and stem biomass equations, and the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) was less than 0.95. The prediction accuracy of a constant biomass expansion factor was relatively lower than the prediction accuracy of Model system 1 and Model system 2. Overall, although stand-level biomass equation including the biomass expansion factor belonged to the volume-derived biomass estimation method, and was different from the stand biomass equations including stand variables in essence, but the obtained prediction accuracy of the two methods was similar. The constant biomass expansion factor had the lower prediction accuracy, and was inappropriate. In addition, in order to make the model parameter estimation more effective, the established stand-level biomass equations should consider the additivity in a system of all tree component biomass and total biomass equations.

A new modified CKD-EPI equation for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Liu, Xun; Gan, Xiaoliang; Chen, Jinxia; Lv, Linsheng; Li, Ming; Lou, Tanqi

2014-01-01

To improve the performance of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equation in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients by modification of the CKD-EPI equation. A total of 1196 subjects were enrolled. Measured GFR was calibrated to the dual plasma sample 99mTc-DTPA-GFR. GFRs estimated by the re-expressed 4-variable MDRD equation, the CKD-EPI equation and the Asian modified CKD-EPI equation were compared in 351 diabetic/non-diabetic pairs. And a new modified CKD-EPI equation was reconstructed in a total of 589 type 2 diabetic patients. In terms of both precision and accuracy, GFR estimating equations all achieved better results in the non-diabetic cohort comparing with those in the type 2 diabetic cohort (30% accuracy, P≤0.01 for all comparisons). In the validation data set, the new modified equation showed less bias (median difference, 2.3 ml/min/1.73 m2 for the new modified equation vs. ranged from -3.8 to -7.9 ml/min/1.73 m2 for the other 3 equations [P<0.001 for all comparisons]), as was precision (IQR of the difference, 24.5 ml/min/1.73 m2 vs. ranged from 27.3 to 30.7 ml/min/1.73 m2), leading to a greater accuracy (30% accuracy, 71.4% vs. 55.2% for the re-expressed 4 variable MDRD equation and 61.0% for the Asian modified CKD-EPI equation [P = 0.001 and P = 0.02]). A new modified CKD-EPI equation for type 2 diabetic patients was developed and validated. The new modified equation improves the performance of GFR estimation.

Performance of Creatinine and Cystatin C GFR Estimating Equations in an HIV-positive population on Antiretrovirals

PubMed Central

INKER, Lesley A; WYATT, Christina; CREAMER, Rebecca; HELLINGER, James; HOTTA, Matthew; LEPPO, Maia; LEVEY, Andrew S; OKPARAVERO, Aghogho; GRAHAM, Hiba; SAVAGE, Karen; SCHMID, Christopher H; TIGHIOUART, Hocine; WALLACH, Fran; KRISHNASAMI, Zipporah

2013-01-01

Objective To evaluate the performance of CKD-EPI creatinine, cystatin C and creatinine-cystatin C estimating equations in HIV-positive patients. Methods We evaluated the performance of the MDRD Study and CKD-EPI creatinine 2009, CKD-EPI cystatin C 2012 and CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C 2012 glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations compared to GFR measured using plasma clearance of iohexol in 200 HIV-positive patients on stable antiretroviral therapy. Creatinine and cystatin C assays were standardized to certified reference materials. Results Of the 200 participants, median (IQR) CD4 count was 536 (421) and 61% had an undetectable HIV-viral load. Mean (SD) measured GFR (mGFR) was 87 (26) ml/min/1.73m2. All CKD-EPI equations performed better than the MDRD Study equation. All three CKD-EPI equations had similar bias and precision. The cystatin C equation was not more accurate than the creatinine equation. The creatinine-cystatin C equation was significantly more accurate than the cystatin C equation and there was a trend toward greater accuracy than the creatinine equation. Accuracy was equal or better in most subgroups with the combined equation compared to either alone. Conclusions The CKD-EPI cystatin C equation does not appear to be more accurate than the CKD-EPI creatinine equation in patients who are HIV-positive, supporting the use of the CKD-EPI creatinine equation for routine clinical care for use in North American populations with HIV. The use of both filtration markers together as a confirmatory test for decreased estimated GFR based on creatinine in individuals who are HIV-positive requires further study. PMID:22842844

Biomass equations for major tree species of the Northeast

Treesearch

Louise M. Tritton; James W. Hornbeck

1982-01-01

Regression equations are used in both forestry and ecosystem studies to estimate tree biomass from field measurements of dbh (diameter at breast height) or a combination of dbh and height. Literature on biomass is reviewed, and 178 sets of publish equation for 25 species common to the Northeastern Unites States are listed. On the basis of these equations, estimates of...

New body fat prediction equations for severely obese patients.

PubMed

Horie, Lilian Mika; Barbosa-Silva, Maria Cristina Gonzalez; Torrinhas, Raquel Susana; de Mello, Marco Túlio; Cecconello, Ivan; Waitzberg, Dan Linetzky

2008-06-01

Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 male, mean age=41.6+/-11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman's graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. BF estimations from BIA (64.8+/-15 kg) and ADP (65.6+/-16.4 kg) did not differ (p>0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide limit of agreement (-10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p<0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment.

Accuracy of Anthropometric Equations for Estimating Body Fat in Professional Male Soccer Players Compared with DXA

PubMed Central

López-Taylor, Juan R.; Jiménez-Alvarado, Juan Antonio; Villegas-Balcázar, Marisol; Jáuregui-Ulloa, Edtna E.; Torres-Naranjo, Francisco

2018-01-01

Background There are several published anthropometric equations to estimate body fat percentage (BF%), and this may prompt uncertainty about their application. Purpose To analyze the accuracy of several anthropometric equations (developed in athletic [AT] and nonathletic [NAT] populations) that estimate BF% comparing them with DXA. Methods We evaluated 131 professional male soccer players (body mass: 73.2 ± 8.0 kg; height: 177.5 ± 5.8 cm; DXA BF% [median, 25th–75th percentile]: 14.0, 11.9–16.4%) aged 18 to 37 years. All subjects were evaluated with anthropometric measurements and a whole body DXA scan. BF% was estimated through 14 AT and 17 NAT anthropometric equations and compared with the measured DXA BF%. Mean differences and 95% limits of agreement were calculated for those anthropometric equations without significant differences with DXA. Results Five AT and seven NAT anthropometric equations did not differ significantly with DXA. From these, Oliver's and Civar's (AT) and Ball's and Wilmore's (NAT) equations showed the highest agreement with DXA. Their 95% limits of agreement ranged from −3.9 to 2.3%, −4.8 to 1.8%, −3.4 to 3.1%, and −3.9 to 3.0%, respectively. Conclusion Oliver's, Ball's, Civar's, and Wilmore's equations were the best to estimate BF% accurately compared with DXA in professional male soccer players. PMID:29736402

Assessment of the agreement between the Framingham and DAD risk equations for estimating cardiovascular risk in adult Africans living with HIV infection: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Noumegni, Steve Raoul; Ama, Vicky Jocelyne Moor; Assah, Felix K; Bigna, Jean Joel; Nansseu, Jobert Richie; Kameni, Jenny Arielle M; Katte, Jean-Claude; Dehayem, Mesmin Y; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Sobngwi, Eugene

2017-01-01

The Absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk evaluation using multivariable CVD risk models is increasingly advocated in people with HIV, in whom existing models remain largely untested. We assessed the agreement between the general population derived Framingham CVD risk equation and the HIV-specific Data collection on Adverse effects of anti-HIV Drugs (DAD) CVD risk equation in HIV-infected adult Cameroonians. This cross-sectional study involved 452 HIV infected adults recruited at the HIV day-care unit of the Yaoundé Central Hospital, Cameroon. The 5-year projected CVD risk was estimated for each participant using the DAD and Framingham CVD risk equations. Agreement between estimates from these equations was assessed using the spearman correlation and Cohen's kappa coefficient. The mean age of participants (80% females) was 44.4 ± 9.8 years. Most participants (88.5%) were on antiretroviral treatment with 93.3% of them receiving first-line regimen. The most frequent cardiovascular risk factors were abdominal obesity (43.1%) and dyslipidemia (33.8%). The median estimated 5-year CVD risk was 0.6% (25th-75th percentiles: 0.3-1.3) using the DAD equation and 0.7% (0.2-2.0) with the Framingham equation. The Spearman correlation between the two estimates was 0.93 ( p  < 0.001). The kappa statistic was 0.61 (95% confident interval: 0.54-0.67) for the agreement between the two equations in classifying participants across risk categories defined as low, moderate, high and very high. Most participants had a low-to-moderate estimated CVD risk, with acceptable level of agreement between the general and HIV-specific equations in ranking CVD risk.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2006-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Flight assessment in patients with respiratory disease: hypoxic challenge testing vs. predictive equations.

PubMed

Martin, S E; Bradley, J M; Buick, J B; Bradbury, I; Elborn, J S

2007-06-01

Predictive equations have been proposed as a simpler alternative to hypoxic challenge testing (HCT) for determining the risk of in-flight hypoxia. To assess agreement between hypoxic challenge testing (HCT) and predictive equations for assessment of in-flight hypoxia. Retrospective study. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (n = 15), interstitial lung disease (ILD) (n = 15) and cystic fibrosis (CF) (n = 15) were studied. Spirometry was recorded prior to hypoxic inhalation and oxygen saturations (SpO2) were recorded before, after and during hypoxic inhalation. Blood gases were analysed before and after hypoxic inhalation and when SpO2 = 85%. An HCT was performed using the Ventimask method. The PaO2 at altitude was estimated for each group using four published predictive equations, which use values of PaO2 (ground) and lung function measurements to predict altitude PaO2. Results were interpreted using the BTS recommendations for prescription of in-flight oxygen post HCT. The Stuart Maxwell test of overall homogeneity was used to assess agreement between HCT results and each of the predictive equations. Ground PaO2 was significantly greater in patients with CF than either ILD or COPD (p < 0.05). PaO2 in all three groups significantly decreased following HCT. With the exception of equation 3, significantly fewer patients in each group would require in-flight O2 if prescription was based on HCT, compared to predictive equations (p < 0.05). Predictive equations considerably overestimate the need for in-flight O2, compared to HCT.

Alternatives for the Bedside Schwartz Equation to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate in Children.

PubMed

Pottel, Hans; Dubourg, Laurence; Goffin, Karolien; Delanaye, Pierre

2018-01-01

The bedside Schwartz equation has long been and still is the recommended equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in children. However, this equation is probably best suited to estimate GFR in children with chronic kidney disease (reduced GFR) but is not optimal for children with GFR >75 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Moreover, the Schwartz equation requires the height of the child, information that is usually not available in the clinical laboratory. This makes automatic reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) along with serum creatinine impossible. As the majority of children (even children referred to nephrology clinics) have GFR >75 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , it might be interesting to evaluate possible alternatives to the bedside Schwartz equation. The pediatric form of the Full Age Spectrum (FAS) equation offers an alternative to Schwartz, allowing automatic reporting of eGFR since height is not necessary. However, when height is involved in the FAS equation, the equation is essentially equal to the Schwartz equation for children, but there are large differences for adolescents. Combining standardized biomarkers increases the prediction performance of eGFR equations for children, reaching P10 ≈ 45% and P30 ≈ 90%. There are currently good and simple alternatives to the bedside Schwartz equation, but the more complex equations combining serum creatinine, serum cystatin C, and height show the highest accuracy and precision. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discrete Kalman filtering equations of second-order form for control-structure interaction simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, K. C.; Alvin, K. F.; Belvin, W. Keith

1991-01-01

A second-order form of discrete Kalman filtering equations is proposed as a candidate state estimator for efficient simulations of control-structure interactions in coupled physical coordinate configurations as opposed to decoupled modal coordinates. The resulting matrix equation of the present state estimator consists of the same symmetric, sparse N x N coupled matrices of the governing structural dynamics equations as opposed to unsymmetric 2N x 2N state space-based estimators. Thus, in addition to substantial computational efficiency improvement, the present estimator can be applied to control-structure design optimization for which the physical coordinates associated with the mass, damping and stiffness matrices of the structure are needed instead of modal coordinates.

Estimating design-flood discharges for streams in Iowa using drainage-basin and channel-geometry characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, D.A.

1993-01-01

Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates. The drainage-basin regression equations are applicable to unregulated rural drainage areas less than 1,060 square miles, and the channel-geometry regression equations are applicable to unregulated rural streams in Iowa with stabilized channels.

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

Estimating GFR using Serum Cystatin C Alone and in Combination with Serum Creatinine: A Pooled Analysis of 3418 Individuals with CKD

PubMed Central

Stevens, Lesley A; Coresh, Josef; Schmid, Christopher H; Feldman, Harold I.; Froissart, Marc; Kusek, John; Rossert, Jerome; Van Lente, Frederick; Bruce, Robert D.; Zhang, Yaping (Lucy); Greene, Tom; Levey, Andrew S

2008-01-01

Background Serum cystatin C (Scys) has been proposed as a potential replacement for serum creatinine (Scr) in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation. We report development and evaluation of GFR estimating equations using Scys alone and Scys, Scr or both with demographic variables. Study Design Test of diagnostic accuracy. Setting and Participants Participants screened for three chronic kidney disease (CKD) studies in the US (n=2980) and a clinical population in Paris, France (n=438) Reference Test Measured GFR (mGFR). Index Test Estimated GFR using the four new equations based on Scys alone, Scys, Scr or both with age, sex and race. New equations were developed using regression with log GFR as the outcome in 2/3 data from US studies. Internal validation was performed in remaining 1/3 of data from US CKD studies; external validation was performed in the Paris study. Measurements GFR was measured using urinary clearance of 125I-iothalamate in the US studies and chromium-ethylenediaminetetraacetate (51Cr-EDTA) in the Paris study. Scys was measured by Dade Behring assay, standardized Scr. Results Mean mGFR, Scr and Scys were 48 (5th–95th percentile 15–95) ml/min/1.73m2 2.1 mg/dL and 1.8 mg/L respectively. For the new equations, the coefficients for age, sex and race were significant in the equation with Scys but 2 to 4 fold smaller than in the equation with Scr. Measures of performance among new equations were consistent across development, internal and external validation datasets. Percent of eGFR within 30% of mGFR for equations based on Scys alone, Scys, Scr or both with age, sex and race were 81, 83, 85, and 89%, respectively. The equation using Scys alone yields estimates with small biases in age, sex and race subgroups, which are improved in equations including these variables. Limitations Study population composed mainly of patients with CKD. Conclusions Scys alone provides GFR estimates that are nearly as accurate as Scr adjusted for age, sex and race thus providing an alternative GFR estimate that is not linked to muscle mass. An equation including Scys in combination with Scr, age, sex and race provide most accurate estimates. PMID:18295055

Estimate of body composition by Hume's equation: validation with DXA.

PubMed

Carnevale, Vincenzo; Piscitelli, Pamela Angela; Minonne, Rita; Castriotta, Valeria; Cipriani, Cristiana; Guglielmi, Giuseppe; Scillitani, Alfredo; Romagnoli, Elisabetta

2015-05-01

We investigated how the Hume's equation, using the antipyrine space, could perform in estimating fat mass (FM) and lean body mass (LBM). In 100 (40 male ad 60 female) subjects, we estimated FM and LBM by the equation and compared these values with those measured by a last generation DXA device. The correlation coefficients between measured and estimated FM were r = 0.940 (p < 0.0001) and between measured and estimated LBM were r = 0.913 (p < 0.0001). The Bland-Altman plots demonstrated a fair agreement between estimated and measured FM and LBM, though the equation underestimated FM and overestimated LBM in respect to DXA. The mean difference for FM was 1.40 kg (limits of agreement of -6.54 and 8.37 kg). For LBM, the mean difference in respect to DXA was 1.36 kg (limits of agreement -8.26 and 6.52 kg). The root mean square error was 3.61 kg for FM and 3.56 kg for LBM. Our results show that in clinically stable subjects the Hume's equation could reliably assess body composition, and the estimated FM and LBM approached those measured by a modern DXA device.

Assessment and correction of skinfold thickness equations in estimating body fat in children with cerebral palsy

PubMed Central

GURKA, MATTHEW J; KUPERMINC, MICHELLE N; BUSBY, MARJORIE G; BENNIS, JACEY A; GROSSBERG, RICHARD I; HOULIHAN, CHRISTINE M; STEVENSON, RICHARD D; HENDERSON, RICHARD C

2010-01-01

AIM To assess the accuracy of skinfold equations in estimating percentage body fat in children with cerebral palsy (CP), compared with assessment of body fat from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). METHOD Data were collected from 71 participants (30 females, 41 males) with CP (Gross Motor Function Classification System [GMFCS] levels I–V) between the ages of 8 and 18 years. Estimated percentage body fat was computed using established (Slaughter) equations based on the triceps and subscapular skinfolds. A linear model was fitted to assess the use of a simple correction to these equations for children with CP. RESULTS Slaughter’s equations consistently underestimated percentage body fat (mean difference compared with DXA percentage body fat −9.6/100 [SD 6.2]; 95% confidence interval [CI] −11.0 to −8.1). New equations were developed in which a correction factor was added to the existing equations based on sex, race, GMFCS level, size, and pubertal status. These corrected equations for children with CP agree better with DXA (mean difference 0.2/100 [SD=4.8]; 95% CI −1.0 to 1.3) than existing equations. INTERPRETATION A simple correction factor to commonly used equations substantially improves the ability to estimate percentage body fat from two skinfold measures in children with CP. PMID:19811518

Best Fitting Prediction Equations for Basal Metabolic Rate: Informing Obesity Interventions in Diverse Populations

PubMed Central

Sabounchi, Nasim S.; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Ammerman, Alice

2014-01-01

Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) represents the largest component of total energy expenditure and is a major contributor to energy balance. Therefore, accurately estimating BMR is critical for developing rigorous obesity prevention and control strategies. Over the past several decades, numerous BMR formulas have been developed targeted to different population groups. A comprehensive literature search revealed 248 BMR estimation equations developed using diverse ranges of age, gender, race, fat free mass, fat mass, height, waist-to-hip ratio, body mass index, and weight. A subset of 47 studies included enough detail to allow for development of meta-regression equations. Utilizing these studies, meta-equations were developed targeted to twenty specific population groups. This review provides a comprehensive summary of available BMR equations and an estimate of their accuracy. An accompanying online BMR prediction tool (available at http://www.sdl.ise.vt.edu/tutorials.html) was developed to automatically estimate BMR based on the most appropriate equation after user-entry of individual age, race, gender, and weight. PMID:23318720

Validation of equations for pleural effusion volume estimation by ultrasonography.

PubMed

Hassan, Maged; Rizk, Rana; Essam, Hatem; Abouelnour, Ahmed

2017-12-01

To validate the accuracy of previously published equations that estimate pleural effusion volume using ultrasonography. Only equations using simple measurements were tested. Three measurements were taken at the posterior axillary line for each case with effusion: lateral height of effusion ( H ), distance between collapsed lung and chest wall ( C ) and distance between lung and diaphragm ( D ). Cases whose effusion was aspirated to dryness were included and drained volume was recorded. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to determine the predictive accuracy of five equations against the actual volume of aspirated effusion. 46 cases with effusion were included. The most accurate equation in predicting effusion volume was ( H  +  D ) × 70 (ICC 0.83). The simplest and yet accurate equation was H  × 100 (ICC 0.79). Pleural effusion height measured by ultrasonography gives a reasonable estimate of effusion volume. Incorporating distance between lung base and diaphragm into estimation improves accuracy from 79% with the first method to 83% with the latter.

Creatinine Clearance Is Not Equal to Glomerular Filtration Rate and Cockcroft-Gault Equation Is Not Equal to CKD-EPI Collaboration Equation.

PubMed

Fernandez-Prado, Raul; Castillo-Rodriguez, Esmeralda; Velez-Arribas, Fernando Javier; Gracia-Iguacel, Carolina; Ortiz, Alberto

2016-12-01

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) may require dose reduction or avoidance when glomerular filtration rate is low. However, glomerular filtration rate is not usually measured in routine clinical practice. Rather, equations that incorporate different variables use serum creatinine to estimate either creatinine clearance in mL/min or glomerular filtration rate in mL/min/1.73 m 2 . The Cockcroft-Gault equation estimates creatinine clearance and incorporates weight into the equation. By contrast, the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations estimate glomerular filtration rate and incorporate ethnicity but not weight. As a result, an individual patient may have very different renal function estimates, depending on the equation used. We now highlight these differences and discuss the impact on routine clinical care for anticoagulation to prevent embolization in atrial fibrillation. Pivotal DOAC clinical trials used creatinine clearance as a criterion for patient enrollment, and dose adjustment and Federal Drug Administration recommendations are based on creatinine clearance. However, clinical biochemistry laboratories provide CKD-EPI glomerular filtration rate estimations, resulting in discrepancies between clinical trial and routine use of the drugs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A classical regression framework for mediation analysis: fitting one model to estimate mediation effects.

PubMed

Saunders, Christina T; Blume, Jeffrey D

2017-10-26

Mediation analysis explores the degree to which an exposure's effect on an outcome is diverted through a mediating variable. We describe a classical regression framework for conducting mediation analyses in which estimates of causal mediation effects and their variance are obtained from the fit of a single regression model. The vector of changes in exposure pathway coefficients, which we named the essential mediation components (EMCs), is used to estimate standard causal mediation effects. Because these effects are often simple functions of the EMCs, an analytical expression for their model-based variance follows directly. Given this formula, it is instructive to revisit the performance of routinely used variance approximations (e.g., delta method and resampling methods). Requiring the fit of only one model reduces the computation time required for complex mediation analyses and permits the use of a rich suite of regression tools that are not easily implemented on a system of three equations, as would be required in the Baron-Kenny framework. Using data from the BRAIN-ICU study, we provide examples to illustrate the advantages of this framework and compare it with the existing approaches. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

PubMed Central

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-01-01

Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

PubMed

Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

2016-03-01

This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration versus Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equations for renal function evaluation in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Clark, Melanie A; Raman, Jay D; Smith, Benjamin; Kaag, Matthew; Russo, Paul; Wheat, Jeffrey C; Wolf, J Stuart; Huang, William C; Shalhav, Arieh L; Eggener, Scott E

2010-11-01

A novel equation, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration, has been proposed to replace the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease for estimated glomerular filtration rate due to higher accuracy, particularly in the setting of normal renal function. We compared these equations in patients with 2 functioning kidneys undergoing partial nephrectomy. We assembled a cohort of 1,158 patients from 5 institutions who underwent partial nephrectomy between 1991 and 2009. Only subjects with 2 functioning kidneys were included in the study. The end points were baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, last followup estimated glomerular filtration rate (3 to 18 months), absolute and percent change estimated glomerular filtration rate ([absolute change/baseline] × 100%), and proportion of newly developed chronic kidney disease stage III. The agreement between the equations was evaluated using Bland-Altman plots and the McNemar test for paired observations. Mean baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate derived from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations were 73 and 77 ml/minute/1.73 m(2), respectively, and following surgery were 63 and 67 ml/minute/1.73 m(2), respectively. Mean percent change estimated glomerular filtration rate was -12% for both equations (p = 0.2). The proportion of patients with newly developed chronic kidney disease stage III following surgery was 32% and 25%, according to the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations, respectively (p = 0.001). For patients with 2 functioning kidneys undergoing partial nephrectomy the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation provides slightly higher glomerular filtration rate estimates compared to the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, with 7% fewer patients categorized as having chronic kidney disease stage III or worse. Copyright © 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National scale biomass estimators for United States tree species

Treesearch

Jennifer C. Jenkins; David C. Chojnacky; Linda S. Heath; Richard A. Birdsey

2003-01-01

Estimates of national-scale forest carbon (C) stocks and fluxes are typically based on allometric regression equations developed using dimensional analysis techniques. However, the literature is inconsistent and incomplete with respect to large-scale forest C estimation. We compiled all available diameter-based allometric regression equations for estimating total...

Twig and foliar biomass estimation equations for major plant species in the Tanana River Basin of interior Alaska.

Treesearch

John Yarie; Bert R. Mead

1988-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating the twig, foliage, and combined biomass for 58 plant species in interior Alaska. The equations can be used for estimating biomass from percentage of foliar cover of 10-centimeter layers in a vertical profile from 0 to 6 meters. Few differences were found in regressions of the same species between layers except when the ratio of...

Weight estimation techniques for composite airplanes in general aviation industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paramasivam, T.; Horn, W. J.; Ritter, J.

1986-01-01

Currently available weight estimation methods for general aviation airplanes were investigated. New equations with explicit material properties were developed for the weight estimation of aircraft components such as wing, fuselage and empennage. Regression analysis was applied to the basic equations for a data base of twelve airplanes to determine the coefficients. The resulting equations can be used to predict the component weights of either metallic or composite airplanes.

Journal: A Review of Some Tracer-Test Design Equations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Determination of necessary tracer mass, initial sample-collection time, and subsequent sample-collection frequency are the three most difficult aspects to estimate for a proposed tracer test prior to conducting the tracer test. To facilitate tracer-mass estimation, 33 mass-estimation equations are reviewed here, 32 of which were evaluated using previously published tracer-test design examination parameters. Comparison of the results produced a wide range of estimated tracer mass, but no means is available by which one equation may be reasonably selected over the others. Each equation produces a simple approximation for tracer mass. Most of the equations are based primarily on estimates or measurements of discharge, transport distance, and suspected transport times. Although the basic field parameters commonly employed are appropriate for estimating tracer mass, the 33 equations are problematic in that they were all probably based on the original developers' experience in a particular field area and not necessarily on measured hydraulic parameters or solute-transport theory. Suggested sampling frequencies are typically based primarily on probable transport distance, but with little regard to expected travel times. This too is problematic in that tends to result in false negatives or data aliasing. Simulations from the recently developed efficient hydrologic tracer-test design methodology (EHTD) were compared with those obtained from 32 of the 33 published tracer-

A one-step method for modelling longitudinal data with differential equations.

PubMed

Hu, Yueqin; Treinen, Raymond

2018-04-06

Differential equation models are frequently used to describe non-linear trajectories of longitudinal data. This study proposes a new approach to estimate the parameters in differential equation models. Instead of estimating derivatives from the observed data first and then fitting a differential equation to the derivatives, our new approach directly fits the analytic solution of a differential equation to the observed data, and therefore simplifies the procedure and avoids bias from derivative estimations. A simulation study indicates that the analytic solutions of differential equations (ASDE) approach obtains unbiased estimates of parameters and their standard errors. Compared with other approaches that estimate derivatives first, ASDE has smaller standard error, larger statistical power and accurate Type I error. Although ASDE obtains biased estimation when the system has sudden phase change, the bias is not serious and a solution is also provided to solve the phase problem. The ASDE method is illustrated and applied to a two-week study on consumers' shopping behaviour after a sale promotion, and to a set of public data tracking participants' grammatical facial expression in sign language. R codes for ASDE, recommendations for sample size and starting values are provided. Limitations and several possible expansions of ASDE are also discussed. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

MESSOC capabilities and results. [Model for Estimating Space Station Opertions Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shishko, Robert

1990-01-01

MESSOC (Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs) is the result of a multi-year effort by NASA to understand and model the mature operations cost of Space Station Freedom. This paper focuses on MESSOC's ability to contribute to life-cycle cost analyses through its logistics equations and databases. Together, these afford MESSOC the capability to project not only annual logistics costs for a variety of Space Station scenarios, but critical non-cost logistics results such as annual Station maintenance crewhours, upweight/downweight, and on-orbit sparing availability as well. MESSOC results using current logistics databases and baseline scenario have already shown important implications for on-orbit maintenance approaches, space transportation systems, and international operations cost sharing.

Updated techniques for estimating monthly streamflow-duration characteristics at ungaged and partial-record sites in central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.

2002-01-01

Techniques for estimating monthly streamflow-duration characteristics at ungaged and partial-record sites in central Nevada have been updated. These techniques were developed using streamflow records at six continuous-record sites, basin physical and climatic characteristics, and concurrent streamflow measurements at four partial-record sites. Two methods, the basin-characteristic method and the concurrent-measurement method, were developed to provide estimating techniques for selected streamflow characteristics at ungaged and partial-record sites in central Nevada. In the first method, logarithmic-regression analyses were used to relate monthly mean streamflows (from all months and by month) from continuous-record gaging sites of various percent exceedence levels or monthly mean streamflows (by month) to selected basin physical and climatic variables at ungaged sites. Analyses indicate that the total drainage area and percent of drainage area at altitudes greater than 10,000 feet are the most significant variables. For the equations developed from all months of monthly mean streamflow, the coefficient of determination averaged 0.84 and the standard error of estimate of the relations for the ungaged sites averaged 72 percent. For the equations derived from monthly means by month, the coefficient of determination averaged 0.72 and the standard error of estimate of the relations averaged 78 percent. If standard errors are compared, the relations developed in this study appear generally to be less accurate than those developed in a previous study. However, the new relations are based on additional data and the slight increase in error may be due to the wider range of streamflow for a longer period of record, 1995-2000. In the second method, streamflow measurements at partial-record sites were correlated with concurrent streamflows at nearby gaged sites by the use of linear-regression techniques. Statistical measures of results using the second method typically indicated greater accuracy than for the first method. However, to make estimates for individual months, the concurrent-measurement method requires several years additional streamflow data at more partial-record sites. Thus, exceedence values for individual months are not yet available due to the low number of concurrent-streamflow-measurement data available. Reliability, limitations, and applications of both estimating methods are described herein.

Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Kidney Transplant Recipients: Comparing a Novel Equation With Commonly Used Equations in this Population

PubMed Central

Salvador, Cathrin L.; Hartmann, Anders; Åsberg, Anders; Bergan, Stein; Rowe, Alexander D.; Mørkrid, Lars

2017-01-01

Background Assessment of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important in kidney transplantation. The aim was to develop a kidney transplant specific equation for estimating GFR and evaluate against published equations commonly used for GFR estimation in these patients. Methods Adult kidney recipients (n = 594) were included, and blood samples were collected 10 weeks posttransplant. GFR was measured by 51Cr-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid clearance. Patients were randomized into a reference group (n = 297) to generate a new equation and a test group (n = 297) for comparing it with 7 alternative equations. Results Two thirds of the test group were males. The median (2.5-97.5 percentile) age was 52 (23-75) years, cystatin C, 1.63 (1.00-3.04) mg/L; creatinine, 117 (63-220) μmol/L; and measured GFR, 51 (29-78) mL/min per 1.73 m2. We also performed external evaluation in 133 recipients without the use of trimethoprim, using iohexol clearance for measured GFR. The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation was the most accurate of the creatinine-equations. The new equation, estimated GFR (eGFR) = 991.15 × (1.120sex/([age0.097] × [cystatin C0.306] × [creatinine0.527]); where sex is denoted: 0, female; 1, male, demonstrating a better accuracy with a low bias as well as good precision compared with reference equations. Trimethoprim did not influence the performance of the new equation. Conclusions The new equation demonstrated superior accuracy, precision, and low bias. The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation was the most accurate of the creatinine-based equations. PMID:29536033

Estimating mean change in population salt intake using spot urine samples.

PubMed

Petersen, Kristina S; Wu, Jason H Y; Webster, Jacqui; Grimes, Carley; Woodward, Mark; Nowson, Caryl A; Neal, Bruce

2017-10-01

Spot urine samples are easier to collect than 24-h urine samples and have been used with estimating equations to derive the mean daily salt intake of a population. Whether equations using data from spot urine samples can also be used to estimate change in mean daily population salt intake over time is unknown. We compared estimates of change in mean daily population salt intake based upon 24-h urine collections with estimates derived using equations based on spot urine samples. Paired and unpaired 24-h urine samples and spot urine samples were collected from individuals in two Australian populations, in 2011 and 2014. Estimates of change in daily mean population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 were obtained directly from the 24-h urine samples and by applying established estimating equations (Kawasaki, Tanaka, Mage, Toft, INTERSALT) to the data from spot urine samples. Differences between 2011 and 2014 were calculated using mixed models. A total of 1000 participants provided a 24-h urine sample and a spot urine sample in 2011, and 1012 did so in 2014 (paired samples n = 870; unpaired samples n = 1142). The participants were community-dwelling individuals living in the State of Victoria or the town of Lithgow in the State of New South Wales, Australia, with a mean age of 55 years in 2011. The mean (95% confidence interval) difference in population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 determined from the 24-h urine samples was -0.48g/day (-0.74 to -0.21; P < 0.001). The corresponding result estimated from the spot urine samples was -0.24 g/day (-0.42 to -0.06; P = 0.01) using the Tanaka equation, -0.42 g/day (-0.70 to -0.13; p = 0.004) using the Kawasaki equation, -0.51 g/day (-1.00 to -0.01; P = 0.046) using the Mage equation, -0.26 g/day (-0.42 to -0.10; P = 0.001) using the Toft equation, -0.20 g/day (-0.32 to -0.09; P = 0.001) using the INTERSALT equation and -0.27 g/day (-0.39 to -0.15; P < 0.001) using the INTERSALT equation with potassium. There was no evidence that the changes detected by the 24-h collections and estimating equations were different (all P > 0.058). Separate analysis of the unpaired and paired data showed that detection of change by the estimating equations was observed only in the paired data. All the estimating equations based upon spot urine samples identified a similar change in daily salt intake to that detected by the 24-h urine samples. Methods based upon spot urine samples may provide an approach to measuring change in mean population salt intake, although further investigation in larger and more diverse population groups is required. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Comparative evaluation of urban storm water quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaze, J.; Chiew, Francis H. S.

2003-10-01

The estimation of urban storm water pollutant loads is required for the development of mitigation and management strategies to minimize impacts to receiving environments. Event pollutant loads are typically estimated using either regression equations or "process-based" water quality models. The relative merit of using regression models compared to process-based models is not clear. A modeling study is carried out here to evaluate the comparative ability of the regression equations and process-based water quality models to estimate event diffuse pollutant loads from impervious surfaces. The results indicate that, once calibrated, both the regression equations and the process-based model can estimate event pollutant loads satisfactorily. In fact, the loads estimated using the regression equation as a function of rainfall intensity and runoff rate are better than the loads estimated using the process-based model. Therefore, if only estimates of event loads are required, regression models should be used because they are simpler and require less data compared to process-based models.

Selection of Common Items as an Unrecognized Source of Variability in Test Equating: A Bootstrap Approximation Assuming Random Sampling of Common Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michaelides, Michalis P.; Haertel, Edward H.

2014-01-01

The standard error of equating quantifies the variability in the estimation of an equating function. Because common items for deriving equated scores are treated as fixed, the only source of variability typically considered arises from the estimation of common-item parameters from responses of samples of examinees. Use of alternative, equally…

Modeling animal movements using stochastic differential equations

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

2004-01-01

We describe the use of bivariate stochastic differential equations (SDE) for modeling movements of 216 radiocollared female Rocky Mountain elk at the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range in northeastern Oregon. Spatially and temporally explicit vector fields were estimated using approximating difference equations and nonparametric regression techniques. Estimated...

Maneuver Estimation Model for Geostationary Orbit Determination

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

create a more robust model which would reduce the amount of data needed to make accurate maneuver estimations. The Clohessy - Wiltshire equations were...Applications to Geostationary Satellites...........................................7 2.3.2 Clohessy - Wiltshire Equations...15 3.1.1 Application of Clohessy - Wiltshire Equations ................................15 3.1.2

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Body mass and stature estimation based on the first metatarsal in humans.

PubMed

De Groote, Isabelle; Humphrey, Louise T

2011-04-01

Archaeological assemblages often lack the complete long bones needed to estimate stature and body mass. The most accurate estimates of body mass and stature are produced using femoral head diameter and femur length. Foot bones including the first metatarsal preserve relatively well in a range of archaeological contexts. In this article we present regression equations using the first metatarsal to estimate femoral head diameter, femoral length, and body mass in a diverse human sample. The skeletal sample comprised 87 individuals (Andamanese, Australasians, Africans, Native Americans, and British). Results show that all first metatarsal measurements correlate moderately to highly (r = 0.62-0.91) with femoral head diameter and length. The proximal articular dorsoplantar diameter is the best single measurement to predict both femoral dimensions. Percent standard errors of the estimate are below 5%. Equations using two metatarsal measurements show a small increase in accuracy. Direct estimations of body mass (calculated from measured femoral head diameter using previously published equations) have an error of just over 7%. No direct stature estimation equations were derived due to the varied linear body proportions represented in the sample. The equations were tested on a sample of 35 individuals from Christ Church Spitalfields. Percentage differences in estimated and measured femoral head diameter and length were less than 1%. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to use the first metatarsal in the estimation of body mass and stature. The equations presented here are particularly useful for assemblages where the long bones are either missing or fragmented, and enable estimation of these fundamental population parameters in poorly preserved assemblages. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

2009-01-01

A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. Themore » simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.« less

Kato Smoothing and Strichartz Estimates for Wave Equations with Magnetic Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Ancona, Piero

2015-04-01

Let H be a selfadjoint operator and A a closed operator on a Hilbert space . If A is H-(super)smooth in the sense of Kato-Yajima, we prove that is -(super)smooth. This allows us to include wave and Klein-Gordon equations in the abstract theory at the same level of generality as Schrödinger equations. We give a few applications and in particular, based on the resolvent estimates of Erdogan, Goldberg and Schlag (Forum Mathematicum 21:687-722, 2009), we prove Strichartz estimates for wave equations perturbed with large magnetic potentials on , n ≥ 3.

Developing a generalized allometric equation for aboveground biomass estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Q.; Balamuta, J. J.; Greenberg, J. A.; Li, B.; Man, A.; Xu, Z.

2015-12-01

A key potential uncertainty in estimating carbon stocks across multiple scales stems from the use of empirically calibrated allometric equations, which estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) from plant characteristics such as diameter at breast height (DBH) and/or height (H). The equations themselves contain significant and, at times, poorly characterized errors. Species-specific equations may be missing. Plant responses to their local biophysical environment may lead to spatially varying allometric relationships. The structural predictor may be difficult or impossible to measure accurately, particularly when derived from remote sensing data. All of these issues may lead to significant and spatially varying uncertainties in the estimation of AGB that are unexplored in the literature. We sought to quantify the errors in predicting AGB at the tree and plot level for vegetation plots in California. To accomplish this, we derived a generalized allometric equation (GAE) which we used to model the AGB on a full set of tree information such as DBH, H, taxonomy, and biophysical environment. The GAE was derived using published allometric equations in the GlobAllomeTree database. The equations were sparse in details about the error since authors provide the coefficient of determination (R2) and the sample size. A more realistic simulation of tree AGB should also contain the noise that was not captured by the allometric equation. We derived an empirically corrected variance estimate for the amount of noise to represent the errors in the real biomass. Also, we accounted for the hierarchical relationship between different species by treating each taxonomic level as a covariate nested within a higher taxonomic level (e.g. species < genus). This approach provides estimation under incomplete tree information (e.g. missing species) or blurred information (e.g. conjecture of species), plus the biophysical environment. The GAE allowed us to quantify contribution of each different covariate in estimating the AGB of trees. Lastly, we applied the GAE to an existing vegetation plot database - Forest Inventory and Analysis database - to derive per-tree and per-plot AGB estimations, their errors, and how much the error could be contributed to the original equations, the plant's taxonomy, and their biophysical environment.

Monthly hydroclimatology of the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Thomas; Devineni, Naresh; Sankarasubramanian, A.

2018-04-01

Physical/semi-empirical models that do not require any calibration are of paramount need for estimating hydrological fluxes for ungauged sites. We develop semi-empirical models for estimating the mean and variance of the monthly streamflow based on Taylor Series approximation of a lumped physically based water balance model. The proposed models require mean and variance of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, co-variability of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and regionally calibrated catchment retention sensitivity, atmospheric moisture uptake sensitivity, groundwater-partitioning factor, and the maximum soil moisture holding capacity parameters. Estimates of mean and variance of monthly streamflow using the semi-empirical equations are compared with the observed estimates for 1373 catchments in the continental United States. Analyses show that the proposed models explain the spatial variability in monthly moments for basins in lower elevations. A regionalization of parameters for each water resources region show good agreement between observed moments and model estimated moments during January, February, March and April for mean and all months except May and June for variance. Thus, the proposed relationships could be employed for understanding and estimating the monthly hydroclimatology of ungauged basins using regional parameters.

Prediction and repeatability of milk coagulation properties and curd-firming modeling parameters of ovine milk using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and Bayesian models.

PubMed

Ferragina, A; Cipolat-Gotet, C; Cecchinato, A; Pazzola, M; Dettori, M L; Vacca, G M; Bittante, G

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian models to the Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy spectra of individual sheep milk samples to derive calibration equations to predict traditional and modeled milk coagulation properties (MCP), and to assess the repeatability of MCP measures and their predictions. Data consisted of 1,002 individual milk samples collected from Sarda ewes reared in 22 farms in the region of Sardinia (Italy) for which MCP and modeled curd-firming parameters were available. Two milk samples were taken from 87 ewes and analyzed with the aim of estimating repeatability, whereas a single sample was taken from the other 915 ewes. Therefore, a total of 1,089 analyses were performed. For each sample, 2 spectra in the infrared region 5,011 to 925 cm -1 were available and averaged before data analysis. BayesB models were used to calibrate equations for each of the traits. Prediction accuracy was estimated for each trait and model using 20 replicates of a training-testing validation procedure. The repeatability of MCP measures and their predictions were also compared. The correlations between measured and predicted traits, in the external validation, were always higher than 0.5 (0.88 for rennet coagulation time). We confirmed that the most important element for finding the prediction accuracy is the repeatability of the gold standard analyses used for building calibration equations. Repeatability measures of the predicted traits were generally high (≥95%), even for those traits with moderate analytical repeatability. Our results show that Bayesian models applied to Fourier-transform infrared spectra are powerful tools for cheap and rapid prediction of important traits in ovine milk and, compared with other methods, could help in the interpretation of results. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of methods for estimating flood magnitudes on small streams in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.; Price, McGlone

1989-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type III analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant.

Analysis of the streamflow-gaging station network in Ohio for effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Straub, D.E.

1998-01-01

The streamflow-gaging station network in Ohio was evaluated for its effectiveness in providing regional streamflow information. The analysis involved application of the principles of generalized least squares regression between streamflow and climatic and basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed for three flow characteristics: (1) the instantaneous peak flow with a 100-year recurrence interval (P100), (2) the mean annual flow (Qa), and (3) the 7-day, 10-year low flow (7Q10). All active and discontinued gaging stations with 5 or more years of unregulated-streamflow data with respect to each flow characteristic were used to develop the regression equations. The gaging-station network was evaluated for the current (1996) condition of the network and estimated conditions of various network strategies if an additional 5 and 20 years of streamflow data were collected. Any active or discontinued gaging station with (1) less than 5 years of unregulated-streamflow record, (2) previously defined basin and climatic characteristics, and (3) the potential for collection of more unregulated-streamflow record were included in the network strategies involving the additional 5 and 20 years of data. The network analysis involved use of the regression equations, in combination with location, period of record, and cost of operation, to determine the contribution of the data for each gaging station to regional streamflow information. The contribution of each gaging station was based on a cost-weighted reduction of the mean square error (average sampling-error variance) associated with each regional estimating equation. All gaging stations included in the network analysis were then ranked according to their contribution to the regional information for each flow characteristic. The predictive ability of the regression equations developed from the gaging station network could be improved for all three flow characteristics with the collection of additional streamflow data. The addition of new gaging stations to the network would result in an even greater improvement of the accuracy of the regional regression equations. Typically, continued data collection at stations with unregulated streamflow for all flow conditions that had less than 11 years of record with drainage areas smaller than 200 square miles contributed the largest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling-error variance of the regional estimating equations. The results of the network analyses can be used to prioritize the continued operation of active gaging stations or the reactivation of discontinued gaging stations if the objective is to maximize the regional information content in the streamflow-gaging station network.

Complicated asymptotic behavior of solutions for porous medium equation in unbounded space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Liangwei; Yin, Jingxue; Zhou, Yong

2018-05-01

In this paper, we find that the unbounded spaces Yσ (RN) (0 < σ <2/m-1 ) can provide the work spaces where complicated asymptotic behavior appears in the solutions of the Cauchy problem of the porous medium equation. To overcome the difficulties caused by the nonlinearity of the equation and the unbounded solutions, we establish the propagation estimates, the growth estimates and the weighted L1-L∞ estimates for the solutions.

A Note on Structural Equation Modeling Estimates of Reliability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Yanyun; Green, Samuel B.

2010-01-01

Reliability can be estimated using structural equation modeling (SEM). Two potential problems with this approach are that estimates may be unstable with small sample sizes and biased with misspecified models. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to investigate the quality of SEM estimates of reliability by themselves and relative to coefficient…

A Polychoric Instrumental Variable (PIV) Estimator for Structural Equation Models with Categorical Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bollen, Kenneth A.; Maydeu-Olivares, Albert

2007-01-01

This paper presents a new polychoric instrumental variable (PIV) estimator to use in structural equation models (SEMs) with categorical observed variables. The PIV estimator is a generalization of Bollen's (Psychometrika 61:109-121, 1996) 2SLS/IV estimator for continuous variables to categorical endogenous variables. We derive the PIV estimator…

Estimating an exchange rate between the EQ-5D-3L and ASCOT.

PubMed

Stevens, Katherine; Brazier, John; Rowen, Donna

2018-06-01

The aim was to estimate an exchange rate between EQ-5D-3L and the Adult Social Care Outcome Tool (ASCOT) using preference-based mapping via common time trade-off (TTO) valuations. EQ-5D and ASCOT are useful for examining cost-effectiveness within the health and social care sectors, respectively, but there is a policy need to understand overall benefits and compare across sectors to assess relative value for money. Standard statistical mapping is unsuitable since it relies on conceptual overlap of the measures but EQ-5D and ASCOT have different conceptualisations of quality of life. We use a preference-based mapping approach to estimate the exchange rate using common TTO valuations for both measures. A sample of health states from each measure was valued using TTO by 200 members of the UK adult general population. Regression analyses are used to generate separate equations between EQ-5D-3L and ASCOT values using their original value set and TTO values elicited here. These are solved as simultaneous equations to estimate the relationship between EQ-5D-3L and ASCOT. The relationship for moving from ASCOT to EQ-5D-3L is a linear transformation with an intercept of -0.0488 and gradient of 0.978. This enables QALY gains generated by ASCOT and EQ-5D to be compared across different interventions. This paper estimated an exchange rate between ASCOT and EQ-5D-3L using a preference-based mapping approach that does not compromise the descriptive systems of the two measures. This contributes to the development of preference-based mapping through the use of TTO as the common metric used to estimate the exchange rate between measures.

Numerical discretization-based estimation methods for ordinary differential equation models via penalized spline smoothing with applications in biomedical research.

PubMed

Wu, Hulin; Xue, Hongqi; Kumar, Arun

2012-06-01

Differential equations are extensively used for modeling dynamics of physical processes in many scientific fields such as engineering, physics, and biomedical sciences. Parameter estimation of differential equation models is a challenging problem because of high computational cost and high-dimensional parameter space. In this article, we propose a novel class of methods for estimating parameters in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, which is motivated by HIV dynamics modeling. The new methods exploit the form of numerical discretization algorithms for an ODE solver to formulate estimating equations. First, a penalized-spline approach is employed to estimate the state variables and the estimated state variables are then plugged in a discretization formula of an ODE solver to obtain the ODE parameter estimates via a regression approach. We consider three different order of discretization methods, Euler's method, trapezoidal rule, and Runge-Kutta method. A higher-order numerical algorithm reduces numerical error in the approximation of the derivative, which produces a more accurate estimate, but its computational cost is higher. To balance the computational cost and estimation accuracy, we demonstrate, via simulation studies, that the trapezoidal discretization-based estimate is the best and is recommended for practical use. The asymptotic properties for the proposed numerical discretization-based estimators are established. Comparisons between the proposed methods and existing methods show a clear benefit of the proposed methods in regards to the trade-off between computational cost and estimation accuracy. We apply the proposed methods t an HIV study to further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Maine StreamStats: a water-resources web application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2015-01-01

Reports referenced in this fact sheet present the regression equations used to estimate the flow statistics, describe the errors associated with the estimates, and describe the methods used to develop the equations and to measure the basin characteristics used in the equations. Limitations of the methods are also described in the reports; for example, all of the equations are appropriate only for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Maine.

Estimation of traveltime and longitudinal dispersion in streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Messinger, Terence

2013-01-01

Traveltime and dispersion data are important for understanding and responding to spills of contaminants in waterways. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Office of Environmental Health Services, compiled and evaluated traveltime and longitudinal dispersion data representative of many West Virginia waterways. Traveltime and dispersion data were not available for streams in the northwestern part of the State. Compiled data were compared with estimates determined from national equations previously published by the USGS. The evaluation summarized procedures and examples for estimating traveltime and dispersion on streams in West Virginia. National equations developed by the USGS can be used to predict traveltime and dispersion for streams located in West Virginia, but the predictions will be less accurate than those made with graphical interpolation between measurements. National equations for peak concentration, velocity of the peak concentration, and traveltime of the leading edge had root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.426 log units (127 percent), 0.505 feet per second (ft/s), and 3.78 hours (h). West Virginia data fit the national equations for peak concentration, velocity of the peak concentration, and traveltime of the leading edge with RMSE of 0.139 log units (38 percent), 0.630 ft/s, and 3.38 h, respectively. The national equation for maximum possible velocity of the peak concentration exceeded 99 percent and 100 percent of observed values from the national data set and West Virginia-only data set, respectively. No RMSE was reported for time of passage of a dye cloud, as estimated using the national equation; however, the estimates made using the national equations had a root mean square error of 3.82 h when compared to data gathered for this study. Traveltime and dispersion estimates can be made from the plots of traveltime as a function of streamflow and location for streams with plots available, but estimates can be made using the national equations for streams without plots. The estimating procedures are not valid for regulated stream reaches that were not individually studied or streamflows outside the limits studied. Rapidly changing streamflow and inadequate mixing across the stream channel affect traveltime and dispersion, and reduce the accuracy of estimates. Increases in streamflow typically result in decreases in the peak concentration and traveltime of the peak concentration. Decreases in streamflow typically result in increases in the peak concentration and traveltime of the peak concentration. Traveltimes will likely be less than those determined using the estimating equations and procedures if the spill is in the center of the stream, and traveltimes will likely be greater than those determined using the estimating equations and procedures if the spill is near the streambank.

Physical activity and motor decline in older persons.

PubMed

Buchman, A S; Boyle, P A; Wilson, R S; Bienias, Julia L; Bennett, D A

2007-03-01

We tested the hypothesis that physical activity modifies the course of age-related motor decline. More than 850 older participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project underwent baseline assessment of physical activity and annual motor testing for up to 8 years. Nine strength measures and nine motor performance measures were summarized into composite measures of motor function. In generalized estimating equation models, global motor function declined during follow-up (estimate, -0.072; SE, 0.008; P < 0.001). Each additional hour of physical activity at baseline was associated with about a 5% decrease in the rate of global motor function decline (estimate, 0.004; SE, 0.001; P = 0.007). Secondary analyses suggested that the association of physical activity with motor decline was mostly due to the effect of physical activity on the rate of motor performance decline. Thus, higher levels of physical activity are associated with a slower rate of motor decline in older persons.

Quantifying the impact of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient parameter uncertainty on the physical transport processes in rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camacho Suarez, V. V.; Shucksmith, J.; Schellart, A.

2016-12-01

Analytical and numerical models can be used to represent the advection-dispersion processes governing the transport of pollutants in rivers (Fan et al., 2015; Van Genuchten et al., 2013). Simplifications, assumptions and parameter estimations in these models result in various uncertainties within the modelling process and estimations of pollutant concentrations. In this study, we explore both: 1) the structural uncertainty due to the one dimensional simplification of the Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE) and 2) the parameter uncertainty due to the semi empirical estimation of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient. The relative significance of these uncertainties has not previously been examined. By analysing both the relative structural uncertainty of analytical solutions of the ADE, and the parameter uncertainty due to the longitudinal dispersion coefficient via a Monte Carlo analysis, an evaluation of the dominant uncertainties for a case study in the river Chillan, Chile is presented over a range of spatial scales.

Regression analysis on the variation in efficiency frontiers for prevention stage of HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Kamae, Maki S; Kamae, Isao; Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

2011-01-01

To investigate how the cost effectiveness of preventing HIV/AIDS varies across possible efficiency frontiers (EFs) by taking into account potentially relevant external factors, such as prevention stage, and how the EFs can be characterized using regression analysis given uncertainty of the QALY-cost estimates. We reviewed cost-effectiveness estimates for the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS published from 2002-2007 and catalogued in the Tufts Medical Center Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry. We constructed efficiency frontier (EF) curves by plotting QALYs against costs, using methods used by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) in Germany. We stratified the QALY-cost ratios by prevention stage, country of study, and payer perspective, and estimated EF equations using log and square-root models. A total of 53 QALY-cost ratios were identified for HIV/AIDS in the Tufts CEA Registry. Plotted ratios stratified by prevention stage were visually grouped into a cluster consisting of primary/secondary prevention measures and a cluster consisting of tertiary measures. Correlation coefficients for each cluster were statistically significant. For each cluster, we derived two EF equations - one based on the log model, and one based on the square-root model. Our findings indicate that stratification of HIV/AIDS interventions by prevention stage can yield distinct EFs, and that the correlation and regression analyses are useful for parametrically characterizing EF equations. Our study has certain limitations, such as the small number of included articles and the potential for study populations to be non-representative of countries of interest. Nonetheless, our approach could help develop a deeper appreciation of cost effectiveness beyond the deterministic approach developed by IQWiG.

Estimating verbal fluency and naming ability from the test of premorbid functioning and demographic variables: Regression equations derived from a regional UK sample.

PubMed

Jenkinson, Toni-Marie; Muncer, Steven; Wheeler, Miranda; Brechin, Don; Evans, Stephen

2018-06-01

Neuropsychological assessment requires accurate estimation of an individual's premorbid cognitive abilities. Oral word reading tests, such as the test of premorbid functioning (TOPF), and demographic variables, such as age, sex, and level of education, provide a reasonable indication of premorbid intelligence, but their ability to predict other related cognitive abilities is less well understood. This study aimed to develop regression equations, based on the TOPF and demographic variables, to predict scores on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. A sample of 119 healthy adults provided demographic information and were tested using the TOPF, FAS, animal naming test (ANT), and graded naming test (GNT). Multiple regression analyses, using the TOPF and demographics as predictor variables, were used to estimate verbal fluency and naming ability test scores. Change scores and cases of significant impairment were calculated for two clinical samples with diagnosed neurological conditions (TBI and meningioma) using the method in Knight, McMahon, Green, and Skeaff (). Demographic variables provided a significant contribution to the prediction of all verbal fluency and naming ability test scores; however, adding TOPF score to the equation considerably improved prediction beyond that afforded by demographic variables alone. The percentage of variance accounted for by demographic variables and/or TOPF score varied from 19 per cent (FAS), 28 per cent (ANT), and 41 per cent (GNT). Change scores revealed significant differences in performance in the clinical groups, particularity the TBI group. Demographic variables, particularly education level, and scores on the TOPF should be taken into consideration when interpreting performance on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Interrelationships between BMI, skinfold thicknesses, percent body fat, and cardiovascular disease risk factors among U.S. children and adolescents.

PubMed

Freedman, David S; Ogden, Cynthia L; Kit, Brian K

2015-11-18

Although the estimation of body fatness by Slaughter skinfold thickness equations (PBF(Slaughter)) has been widely used, the accuracy of this method is uncertain. We have previously examined the interrelationships among the body mass index (BMI), PBF(Slaughter), percent body fat from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (PBF(DXA)) and CVD risk factor levels among children who were examined in the Bogalusa Heart Study and in the Pediatric Rosetta Body Composition Project. The current analyses examine these associations among 7599 8- to 19-year-olds who participated in the (U.S.) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2004. We analyzed (1) the agreement between (1) estimates of percent body fat calculated from the Slaughter skinfold thickness equations and from DXA, and (2) the relation of lipid, lipoprotein, and blood pressure levels to BMI, PBF(Slaughter) and PBF(DXA). PBF(Slaughter) was highly correlated (r ~ 0.85) with PBF(DXA). However, among children with a relatively low skinfold thicknesses sum (triceps + subscapular), PBF(Slaughter) underestimated PBF(DXA) by 8 to 9 percentage points. In contrast, PBF(Slaughter) overestimated PBF(DXA) by 10 points among boys with a skinfold thickness sum ≥ 50 mm. After adjustment for sex and age, lipid levels were related similarly to the body mass index, PBF(DXA) and PBF(Slaughter). There were, however, small differences in associations with blood pressure levels: systolic blood pressure was more strongly associated with body mass index, but diastolic blood pressure was more strongly associated with percent body fat. The Slaughter equations yield biased estimates of body fatness. In general, lipid and blood pressure levels are related similarly to levels of BMI (following adjustment for sex and age), PBF(Slaughter,) and PBF(DXA).

The computation of equating errors in international surveys in education.

PubMed

Monseur, Christian; Berezner, Alla

2007-01-01

Since the IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study, one of the major objectives of international surveys in education has been to report trends in achievement. The names of the two current IEA surveys reflect this growing interest: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS). Similarly a central concern of the OECD's PISA is with trends in outcomes over time. To facilitate trend analyses these studies link their tests using common item equating in conjunction with item response modelling methods. IEA and PISA policies differ in terms of reporting the error associated with trends. In IEA surveys, the standard errors of the trend estimates do not include the uncertainty associated with the linking step while PISA does include a linking error component in the standard errors of trend estimates. In other words, PISA implicitly acknowledges that trend estimates partly depend on the selected common items, while the IEA's surveys do not recognise this source of error. Failing to recognise the linking error leads to an underestimation of the standard errors and thus increases the Type I error rate, thereby resulting in reporting of significant changes in achievement when in fact these are not significant. The growing interest of policy makers in trend indicators and the impact of the evaluation of educational reforms appear to be incompatible with such underestimation. However, the procedure implemented by PISA raises a few issues about the underlying assumptions for the computation of the equating error. After a brief introduction, this paper will describe the procedure PISA implemented to compute the linking error. The underlying assumptions of this procedure will then be discussed. Finally an alternative method based on replication techniques will be presented, based on a simulation study and then applied to the PISA 2000 data.

Numerically accurate computational techniques for optimal estimator analyses of multi-parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Lukas; Kleinheinz, Konstantin; Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Pitsch, Heinz; Mueller, Michael E.

2018-05-01

Modelling unclosed terms in partial differential equations typically involves two steps: First, a set of known quantities needs to be specified as input parameters for a model, and second, a specific functional form needs to be defined to model the unclosed terms by the input parameters. Both steps involve a certain modelling error, with the former known as the irreducible error and the latter referred to as the functional error. Typically, only the total modelling error, which is the sum of functional and irreducible error, is assessed, but the concept of the optimal estimator enables the separate analysis of the total and the irreducible errors, yielding a systematic modelling error decomposition. In this work, attention is paid to the techniques themselves required for the practical computation of irreducible errors. Typically, histograms are used for optimal estimator analyses, but this technique is found to add a non-negligible spurious contribution to the irreducible error if models with multiple input parameters are assessed. Thus, the error decomposition of an optimal estimator analysis becomes inaccurate, and misleading conclusions concerning modelling errors may be drawn. In this work, numerically accurate techniques for optimal estimator analyses are identified and a suitable evaluation of irreducible errors is presented. Four different computational techniques are considered: a histogram technique, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and an additive model based on a kernel method. For multiple input parameter models, only artificial neural networks and multivariate adaptive regression splines are found to yield satisfactorily accurate results. Beyond a certain number of input parameters, the assessment of models in an optimal estimator analysis even becomes practically infeasible if histograms are used. The optimal estimator analysis in this paper is applied to modelling the filtered soot intermittency in large eddy simulations using a dataset of a direct numerical simulation of a non-premixed sooting turbulent flame.

Estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and harmonic-mean flows for ungaged, unregulated streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Arihood, Leslie D.

2016-09-06

Information on low-flow characteristics of streams is essential for the management of water resources. This report provides equations for estimating the 1-, 7-, and 30-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years and the harmonic-mean flow at ungaged, unregulated stream sites in Indiana. These equations were developed using the low-flow statistics and basin characteristics for 108 continuous-record streamgages in Indiana with at least 10 years of daily mean streamflow data through the 2011 climate year (April 1 through March 31). The equations were developed in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Environmental Management.Regression techniques were used to develop the equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and the harmonic-mean flows on the basis of drainage-basin characteristics. A geographic information system was used to measure basin characteristics for selected streamgages. A final set of 25 basin characteristics measured at all the streamgages were evaluated to choose the best predictors of the low-flow statistics.Logistic-regression equations applicable statewide are presented for estimating the probability that selected low-flow frequency statistics equal zero. These equations use the explanatory variables total drainage area, average transmissivity of the full thickness of the unconsolidated deposits within 1,000 feet of the stream network, and latitude of the basin outlet. The percentage of the streamgage low-flow statistics correctly classified as zero or nonzero using the logistic-regression equations ranged from 86.1 to 88.9 percent.Generalized-least-squares regression equations applicable statewide for estimating nonzero low-flow frequency statistics use total drainage area, the average hydraulic conductivity of the top 70 feet of unconsolidated deposits, the slope of the basin, and the index of permeability and thickness of the Quaternary surficial sediments as explanatory variables. The average standard error of prediction of these regression equations ranges from 55.7 to 61.5 percent.Regional weighted-least-squares regression equations were developed for estimating the harmonic-mean flows by dividing the State into three low-flow regions. The Northern region uses total drainage area and the average transmissivity of the entire thickness of unconsolidated deposits as explanatory variables. The Central region uses total drainage area, the average hydraulic conductivity of the entire thickness of unconsolidated deposits, and the index of permeability and thickness of the Quaternary surficial sediments. The Southern region uses total drainage area and the percent of the basin covered by forest. The average standard error of prediction for these equations ranges from 39.3 to 66.7 percent.The regional regression equations are applicable only to stream sites with low flows unaffected by regulation and to stream sites with drainage basin characteristic values within specified limits. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits and for basins with karst drainage features and for urbanized basins. Extrapolations near and beyond the applicable basin characteristic limits will have unknown errors that may be large. Equations are presented for use in estimating the 90-percent prediction interval of the low-flow statistics estimated by use of the regression equations at a given stream site.The regression equations are to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based application for Indiana. StreamStats allows users to select a stream site on a map and automatically measure the needed basin characteristics and compute the estimated low-flow statistics and associated prediction intervals.

Estimation of GFR in South Asians: A Study From the General Population in Pakistan

PubMed Central

Jessani, Saleem; Levey, Andrew S.; Bux, Rasool; Inker, Lesley A.; Islam, Muhammad; Chaturvedi, Nish; Mariat, Christophe; Schmid, Christopher H.; Jafar, Tazeen H.

2015-01-01

Background South Asians are at high risk for chronic kidney disease. However, unlike those in the United States and United Kingdom, laboratories in South Asian countries do not routinely report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) when serum creatinine is measured. The objectives of the study were to: (1) evaluate the performance of existing GFR estimating equations in South Asians, and (2) modify the existing equations or develop a new equation for use in this population. Study Design Cross-sectional population-based study. Setting & Participants 581 participants 40 years or older were enrolled from 10 randomly selected communities and renal clinics in Karachi. Predictors eGFR, age, sex, serum creatinine level. Outcomes Bias (the median difference between measured GFR [mGFR] and eGFR), precision (the IQR of the difference), accuracy (P30; percentage of participants with eGFR within 30% of mGFR), and the root mean squared error reported as cross-validated estimates along with bootstrapped 95% CIs based on 1,000 replications. Results The CKD-EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration) creatinine equation performed better than the MDRD (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) Study equation in terms of greater accuracy at P30 (76.1% [95% CI, 72.7%–79.5%] vs 68.0% [95% CI, 64.3%–71.7%]; P <0.001) and improved precision (IQR, 22.6 [95% CI, 19.9–25.3] vs 28.6 [95% CI, 25.8–31.5] mL/min/1.73 m2; P < 0.001). However, both equations overestimated mGFR. Applying modification factors for slope and intercept to the CKD-EPI equation to create a CKD-EPI Pakistan equation (such that eGFRCKD-EPI(PK) = 0.686 × eGFRCKD-EPI1.059) in order to eliminate bias improved accuracy (P30, 81.6% [95% CI, 78.4%–84.8%]; P < 0.001) comparably to new estimating equations developed using creatinine level and additional variables. Limitations Lack of external validation data set and few participants with low GFR. Conclusions The CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate and precise than the MDRD Study equation in estimating GFR in a South Asian population in Karachi. The CKD-EPI Pakistan equation further improves the performance of the CKD-EPI equation in South Asians and could be used for eGFR reporting. PMID:24074822

Cetacean population density estimation from single fixed sensors using passive acoustics.

PubMed

Küsel, Elizabeth T; Mellinger, David K; Thomas, Len; Marques, Tiago A; Moretti, David; Ward, Jessica

2011-06-01

Passive acoustic methods are increasingly being used to estimate animal population density. Most density estimation methods are based on estimates of the probability of detecting calls as functions of distance. Typically these are obtained using receivers capable of localizing calls or from studies of tagged animals. However, both approaches are expensive to implement. The approach described here uses a MonteCarlo model to estimate the probability of detecting calls from single sensors. The passive sonar equation is used to predict signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of received clicks, which are then combined with a detector characterization that predicts probability of detection as a function of SNR. Input distributions for source level, beam pattern, and whale depth are obtained from the literature. Acoustic propagation modeling is used to estimate transmission loss. Other inputs for density estimation are call rate, obtained from the literature, and false positive rate, obtained from manual analysis of a data sample. The method is applied to estimate density of Blainville's beaked whales over a 6-day period around a single hydrophone located in the Tongue of the Ocean, Bahamas. Results are consistent with those from previous analyses, which use additional tag data. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Evaluation and interpretation of Thematic Mapper ratios in equations for estimating corn growth parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dardner, B. R.; Blad, B. L.; Thompson, D. R.; Henderson, K. E.

1985-01-01

Reflectance and agronomic Thematic Mapper (TM) data were analyzed to determine possible data transformations for evaluating several plant parameters of corn. Three transformation forms were used: the ratio of two TM bands, logarithms of two-band ratios, and normalized differences of two bands. Normalized differences and logarithms of two-band ratios responsed similarly in the equations for estimating the plant growth parameters evaluated in this study. Two-term equations were required to obtain the maximum predictability of percent ground cover, canopy moisture content, and total wet phytomass. Standard error of estimate values were 15-26 percent lower for two-term estimates of these parameters than for one-term estimates. The terms log(TM4/TM2) and (TM4/TM5) produced the maximum predictability for leaf area and dry green leaf weight, respectively. The middle infrared bands TM5 and TM7 are essential for maximizing predictability for all measured plant parameters except leaf area index. The estimating models were evaluated over bare soil to discriminate between equations which are statistically similar. Qualitative interpretations of the resulting prediction equations are consistent with general agronomic and remote sensing theory.

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Estimation of stature by using lower limb dimensions in the Malaysian population.

PubMed

Nor, Faridah Mohd; Abdullah, Nurliza; Mustapa, Al-Mizan; Qi Wen, Leong; Faisal, Nurulina Aimi; Ahmad Nazari, Dayang Anis Asyikin

2013-11-01

Estimation of stature is an important step in developing a biological profile for human identification. It may provide a valuable indicator for an unknown individual in a population. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between stature and lower limb dimensions in the Malaysian population. The sample comprised 100 corpses, which included 69 males and 31 females between the age range of 20-90 years old. The parameters measured were stature, thigh length, lower leg length, leg length, foot length, foot height and foot breadth. Results showed that the mean values in males were significantly higher than those in females (p < 0.05). There were significant correlations between lower limb dimensions and stature. Cross-validation of the equation on 100 individuals showed close approximation between known stature and estimated stature. It was concluded that lower limb dimensions were useful for estimation of stature, which should be validated in future studies. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical analysis of one-dimensional temperature data for groundwater/surface-water exchange with 1DTempPro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voytek, E. B.; Drenkelfuss, A.; Day-Lewis, F. D.; Healy, R. W.; Lane, J. W.; Werkema, D. D.

2012-12-01

Temperature is a naturally occurring tracer, which can be exploited to infer the movement of water through the vadose and saturated zones, as well as the exchange of water between aquifers and surface-water bodies, such as estuaries, lakes, and streams. One-dimensional (1D) vertical temperature profiles commonly show thermal amplitude attenuation and increasing phase lag of diurnal or seasonal temperature variations with propagation into the subsurface. This behavior is described by the heat-transport equation (i.e., the convection-conduction-dispersion equation), which can be solved analytically in 1D under certain simplifying assumptions (e.g., sinusoidal or steady-state boundary conditions and homogeneous hydraulic and thermal properties). Analysis of 1D temperature profiles using analytical models provides estimates of vertical groundwater/surface-water exchange. The utility of these estimates can be diminished when the model assumptions are violated, as is common in field applications. Alternatively, analysis of 1D temperature profiles using numerical models allows for consideration of more complex and realistic boundary conditions. However, such analyses commonly require model calibration and the development of input files for finite-difference or finite-element codes. To address the calibration and input file requirements, a new computer program, 1DTempPro, is presented that facilitates numerical analysis of vertical 1D temperature profiles. 1DTempPro is a graphical user interface (GUI) to the USGS code VS2DH, which numerically solves the flow- and heat-transport equations. Pre- and post-processor features within 1DTempPro allow the user to calibrate VS2DH models to estimate groundwater/surface-water exchange and hydraulic conductivity in cases where hydraulic head is known. This approach improves groundwater/ surface-water exchange-rate estimates for real-world data with complexities ill-suited for examination with analytical methods. Additionally, the code allows for time-varying temperature and hydraulic boundary conditions. Here, we present the approach and include examples for several datasets from stream/aquifer systems.

Sea surface temperature: Observations from geostationary satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, John J.; Smith, William L.

1985-11-01

A procedure is developed for estimating sea surface temperatures (SST) from multispectral image data acquired from the VISSR atmospheric sounder (VAS) on the geostationary GOES satellites. Theoretical regression equations for two and three infrared window channels are empirically tuned by using clear field of view satellite radiances matched with reports of SST from NOAA fixed environmental buoys from 1982. The empirical regression equations are then used to produce daily regional analyses of SST. The daily analyses are used to study the response of SST's to the passage of Hurricane Alicia (1983) and Hurricane Debbie (1982) and are also used as a first guess surface temperature in the retrieval of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles over the oceanic regions. Monthly mean SST's for the western North Atlantic and the eastern equatorial Pacific during March and July 1982 were produced for use in the NASA/JPL SST intercomparison workshop series. Workshop results showed VAS SST's have a scatter of 0.8°-1.0°C and a slight warm bias with respect to the other measurements of SST. Subsequently, a second set of VAS/ buoy matches collected during 1983 and 1984 was used to produce a set of bias corrected regression relations for VAS.

Methods for estimating streamflow at mountain fronts in southern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, S.D.

1994-01-01

The infiltration of streamflow is potential recharge to alluvial-basin aquifers at or near mountain fronts in southern New Mexico. Data for 13 streamflow-gaging stations were used to determine a relation between mean annual stream- flow and basin and climatic conditions. Regression analysis was used to develop an equation that can be used to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of drainage areas and mean annual precipi- tation. The average standard error of estimate for this equation is 46 percent. Regression analysis also was used to develop an equation to estimate mean annual streamflow on the basis of active- channel width. Measurements of the width of active channels were determined for 6 of the 13 gaging stations. The average standard error of estimate for this relation is 29 percent. Stream- flow estimates made using a regression equation based on channel geometry are considered more reliable than estimates made from an equation based on regional relations of basin and climatic conditions. The sample size used to develop these relations was small, however, and the reported standard error of estimate may not represent that of the entire population. Active-channel-width measurements were made at 23 ungaged sites along the Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. Data for additional sites would be needed for a more comprehensive assessment of mean annual streamflow in southern New Mexico.

Estimating and Interpreting Latent Variable Interactions: A Tutorial for Applying the Latent Moderated Structural Equations Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maslowsky, Julie; Jager, Justin; Hemken, Douglas

2015-01-01

Latent variables are common in psychological research. Research questions involving the interaction of two variables are likewise quite common. Methods for estimating and interpreting interactions between latent variables within a structural equation modeling framework have recently become available. The latent moderated structural equations (LMS)…

Comparison of constitutive flow resistance equations based on the Manning and Chezy equations applied to natural rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Dingman, S. Lawrence; Bolster, Carl H.

2005-01-01

A set of conceptually derived in‐bank river discharge–estimating equations (models), based on the Manning and Chezy equations, are calibrated and validated using a database of 1037 discharge measurements in 103 rivers in the United States and New Zealand. The models are compared to a multiple regression model derived from the same data. The comparison demonstrates that in natural rivers, using an exponent on the slope variable of 0.33 rather than the traditional value of 0.5 reduces the variance associated with estimating flow resistance. Mean model uncertainty, assuming a constant value for the conductance coefficient, is less than 5% for a large number of estimates, and 67% of the estimates would be accurate within 50%. The models have potential application where site‐specific flow resistance information is not available and can be the basis for (1) a general approach to estimating discharge from remotely sensed hydraulic data, (2) comparison to slope‐area discharge estimates, and (3) large‐scale river modeling.

Body composition in elderly people: effect of criterion estimates on predictive equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumgartner, R.N.; Heymsfield, S.B.; Lichtman, S.

1991-06-01

The purposes of this study were to determine whether there are significant differences between two- and four-compartment model estimates of body composition, whether these differences are associated with aqueous and mineral fractions of the fat-free mass (FFM); and whether the differences are retained in equations for predicting body composition from anthropometry and bioelectric resistance. Body composition was estimated in 98 men and women aged 65-94 y by using a four-compartment model based on hydrodensitometry, {sup 3}H{sub 2}O dilution, and dual-photon absorptiometry. These estimates were significantly different from those obtained by using Siri's two-compartment model. The differences were associated significantly (Pmore » less than 0.0001) with variation in the aqueous fraction of FFM. Equations for predicting body composition from anthropometry and resistance, when calibrated against two-compartment model estimates, retained these systematic errors. Equations predicting body composition in elderly people should be calibrated against estimates from multicompartment models that consider variability in FFM composition.« less

Estimating Selected Streamflow Statistics Representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2008-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 2-year; 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 5-year; and 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 10-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the 1-day, 3-year and 4-day, 3-year biologically based low-flow frequency values; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows; and the 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, and 90-percent flow-duration values. Regional equations were developed using ordinary least-squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamflow-gaging stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia - North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle - were determined. Drainage area, precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. Estimating procedures are presented for determining statistics at a gaging station, a partial-record station, and an ungaged location. Examples of some estimating procedures are presented.

Procedure for estimating stability and control parameters from flight test data by using maximum likelihood methods employing a real-time digital system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grove, R. D.; Bowles, R. L.; Mayhew, S. C.

1972-01-01

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation procedure and program were developed for the extraction of the stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data. Nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom equations describing aircraft dynamics were used to derive sensitivity equations for quasilinearization. The maximum likelihood function with quasilinearization was used to derive the parameter change equations, the covariance matrices for the parameters and measurement noise, and the performance index function. The maximum likelihood estimator was mechanized into an iterative estimation procedure utilizing a real time digital computer and graphic display system. This program was developed for 8 measured state variables and 40 parameters. Test cases were conducted with simulated data for validation of the estimation procedure and program. The program was applied to a V/STOL tilt wing aircraft, a military fighter airplane, and a light single engine airplane. The particular nonlinear equations of motion, derivation of the sensitivity equations, addition of accelerations into the algorithm, operational features of the real time digital system, and test cases are described.

Male-Female Wage Differentials in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiker, B. F.; Crouch, Henry L.

The primary objective of this paper is to describe a method of estimating female-male wage ratios. The estimating technique presented is two stage least squares (2SLS), in which equations are estimated for both men and women. After specifying and estimating the wage equations, the male-female wage differential is calculated that would remain if…

Standard Error of Linear Observed-Score Equating for the NEAT Design with Nonnormally Distributed Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zu, Jiyun; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2012-01-01

In the nonequivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) design, the standard error of linear observed-score equating is commonly estimated by an estimator derived assuming multivariate normality. However, real data are seldom normally distributed, causing this normal estimator to be inconsistent. A general estimator, which does not rely on the…

Renal Function, Bisphenol A, and Alkylphenols: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003–2006)

PubMed Central

You, Li; Zhu, Xiangzhu; Shrubsole, Martha J.; Fan, Hong; Chen, Jing; Dong, Jie; Hao, Chuan-Ming; Dai, Qi

2011-01-01

Background Urinary excretion of bisphenol A (BPA) and alkylphenols (APs) was used as a biomarker in most previous studies, but no study has investigated whether urinary excretion of these environmental phenols differed by renal function. Objective We estimated the association between renal function and urinary excretion of BPA and APs. Methods Analyses were conducted using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2006. Renal function was measured as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation and by the newly developed Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. Regression models were used to calculate geometric means of urinary BPA and APs excretion by eGFR category (≥ 90, 60–90, < 60 mL/min/m2) after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Results When we used the MDRD Study equation, participants without known renal disease (n = 2,573), 58.2% (n = 1,499) had mildly decreased renal function or undiagnosed chronic kidney disease. The adjusted geometric means for urinary BPA excretion decreased with decreasing levels of eGFR (p for trend = 0.04). The associations appeared primarily in females (p for trend = 0.03). Urinary triclosan excretion decreased with decreasing levels of eGFR (p for trend < 0.01) for both males and females, and the association primarily appeared in participants < 65 years of age. The association between BPA and eGFR was nonsignificant when we used the CKD-EPI equation. Conclusions Urinary excretion of triclosan, and possibly BPA, decreased with decreasing renal function. The associations might differ by age or sex. Further studies are necessary to replicate our results and understand the mechanism. PMID:21147601

Comparative evaluation of technetium-99m-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid renal dynamic imaging versus the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for the estimation of GFR.

PubMed

Huang, Qi; Chen, Yunshuang; Zhang, Min; Wang, Sihe; Zhang, Weiguang; Cai, Guangyan; Chen, Xiangmei; Sun, Xuefeng

2018-04-01

We compared the performance of technetium-99m-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid ( 99m Tc-DTPA) renal dynamic imaging (RDI), the MDRD equation, and the CKD EPI equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). A total of 551 subjects, including CKD patients and healthy individuals, were enrolled in this study. Dual plasma sample clearance method of 99m Tc-DTPA was used as the true value for GFR (tGFR). RDI and the MDRD and CKD EPI equations for estimating GFR were compared and evaluated. Data indicate that RDI and the MDRD equation underestimated GFR and CKD EPI overestimated GFR. RDI was associated with significantly higher bias than the MDRD and CKD EPI equations. The regression coefficient, diagnostic precision, and consistency of RDI were significantly lower than either equation. RDI and the MDRD equation underestimated GFR to a greater degree in subjects with tGFR ≥ 90 ml/min/1.73 m 2 compared with the results obtained from all subjects. In the tGFR60-89 ml/min/1.73 m 2 group, the precision of RDI was significantly lower than that of both equations. In the tGFR30-59 ml/min/1.73 m 2 group, RDI had the least bias, the most precision, and significantly higher accuracy compared with either equation. In tGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , the three methods had similar performance and were not significantly different. RDI significantly underestimates GFR and performs no better than MDRD and CKD EPI equations for GFR estimation; thus, it should not be recommended as a reference standard against which other GFR measurement methods are assessed. However, RDI better estimates GFR than either equation for individuals in the tGFR30-59 ml/min/1.73 m 2 group and thus may be helpful to distinguish stage 3a and 3b CKD.

Uncertainty in Operational Atmospheric Analyses and Re-Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langland, R.; Maue, R. N.

2016-12-01

This talk will describe uncertainty in atmospheric analyses of wind and temperature produced by operational forecast models and in re-analysis products. Because the "true" atmospheric state cannot be precisely quantified, there is necessarily error in every atmospheric analysis, and this error can be estimated by computing differences ( variance and bias) between analysis products produced at various centers (e.g., ECMWF, NCEP, U.S Navy, etc.) that use independent data assimilation procedures, somewhat different sets of atmospheric observations and forecast models with different resolutions, dynamical equations, and physical parameterizations. These estimates of analysis uncertainty provide a useful proxy to actual analysis error. For this study, we use a unique multi-year and multi-model data archive developed at NRL-Monterey. It will be shown that current uncertainty in atmospheric analyses is closely correlated with the geographic distribution of assimilated in-situ atmospheric observations, especially those provided by high-accuracy radiosonde and commercial aircraft observations. The lowest atmospheric analysis uncertainty is found over North America, Europe and Eastern Asia, which have the largest numbers of radiosonde and commercial aircraft observations. Analysis uncertainty is substantially larger (by factors of two to three times) in most of the Southern hemisphere, the North Pacific ocean, and under-developed nations of Africa and South America where there are few radiosonde or commercial aircraft data. It appears that in regions where atmospheric analyses depend primarily on satellite radiance observations, analysis uncertainty of both temperature and wind remains relatively high compared to values found over North America and Europe.

Improving estimates of streamflow characteristics by using Landsat-1 imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollyday, Este F.

1976-01-01

Imagery from the first Earth Resources Technology Satellite (renamed Landsat-1) was used to discriminate physical features of drainage basins in an effort to improve equations used to estimate streamflow characteristics at gaged and ungaged sites. Records of 20 gaged basins in the Delmarva Peninsula of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia were analyzed for 40 statistical streamflow characteristics. Equations relating these characteristics to basin characteristics were obtained by a technique of multiple linear regression. A control group of equations contains basin characteristics derived from maps. An experimental group of equations contains basin characteristics derived from maps and imagery. Characteristics from imagery were forest, riparian (streambank) vegetation, water, and combined agricultural and urban land use. These basin characteristics were isolated photographically by techniques of film-density discrimination. The area of each characteristic in each basin was measured photometrically. Comparison of equations in the control group with corresponding equations in the experimental group reveals that for 12 out of 40 equations the standard error of estimate was reduced by more than 10 percent. As an example, the standard error of estimate of the equation for the 5-year recurrence-interval flood peak was reduced from 46 to 32 percent. Similarly, the standard error of the equation for the mean monthly flow for September was reduced from 32 to 24 percent, the standard error for the 7-day, 2-year recurrence low flow was reduced from 136 to 102 percent, and the standard error for the 3-day, 2-year flood volume was reduced from 30 to 12 percent. It is concluded that data from Landsat imagery can substantially improve the accuracy of estimates of some streamflow characteristics at sites in the Delmarva Peninsula.

Filtering Meteoroid Flights Using Multiple Unscented Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sansom, E. K.; Bland, P. A.; Rutten, M. G.; Paxman, J.; Towner, M. C.

2016-11-01

Estimator algorithms are immensely versatile and powerful tools that can be applied to any problem where a dynamic system can be modeled by a set of equations and where observations are available. A well designed estimator enables system states to be optimally predicted and errors to be rigorously quantified. Unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) and interactive multiple models can be found in methods from satellite tracking to self-driving cars. The luminous trajectory of the Bunburra Rockhole fireball was observed by the Desert Fireball Network in mid-2007. The recorded data set is used in this paper to examine the application of these two techniques as a viable approach to characterizing fireball dynamics. The nonlinear, single-body system of equations, used to model meteoroid entry through the atmosphere, is challenged by gross fragmentation events that may occur. The incorporation of the UKF within an interactive multiple model smoother provides a likely solution for when fragmentation events may occur as well as providing a statistical analysis of the state uncertainties. In addition to these benefits, another advantage of this approach is its automatability for use within an image processing pipeline to facilitate large fireball data analyses and meteorite recoveries.

Beyond logistic regression: structural equations modelling for binary variables and its application to investigating unobserved confounders.

PubMed

Kupek, Emil

2006-03-15

Structural equation modelling (SEM) has been increasingly used in medical statistics for solving a system of related regression equations. However, a great obstacle for its wider use has been its difficulty in handling categorical variables within the framework of generalised linear models. A large data set with a known structure among two related outcomes and three independent variables was generated to investigate the use of Yule's transformation of odds ratio (OR) into Q-metric by (OR-1)/(OR+1) to approximate Pearson's correlation coefficients between binary variables whose covariance structure can be further analysed by SEM. Percent of correctly classified events and non-events was compared with the classification obtained by logistic regression. The performance of SEM based on Q-metric was also checked on a small (N = 100) random sample of the data generated and on a real data set. SEM successfully recovered the generated model structure. SEM of real data suggested a significant influence of a latent confounding variable which would have not been detectable by standard logistic regression. SEM classification performance was broadly similar to that of the logistic regression. The analysis of binary data can be greatly enhanced by Yule's transformation of odds ratios into estimated correlation matrix that can be further analysed by SEM. The interpretation of results is aided by expressing them as odds ratios which are the most frequently used measure of effect in medical statistics.

Estimation of selected flow and water-quality characteristics of Alaskan streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parks, Bruce; Madison, R.J.

1985-01-01

Although hydrologic data are either sparse or nonexistent for large areas of Alaska, the drainage area, area of lakes, glacier and forest cover, and average precipitation in a hydrologic basin of interest can be measured or estimated from existing maps. Application of multiple linear regression techniques indicates that statistically significant correlations exist between properties of basins determined from maps and measured streamflow characteristics. This suggests that corresponding characteristics of ungaged basins can be estimated. Streamflow frequency characteristics can be estimated from regional equations developed for southeast, south-central and Yukon regions. Statewide or modified regional equations must be used, however, for the southwest, northwest, and Arctic Slope regions where there is a paucity of data. Equations developed from basin characteristics are given to estimate suspended-sediment values for glacial streams and, with less reliability, for nonglacial streams. Equations developed from available specific conductance data are given to estimate concentrations of major dissolved inorganic constituents. Suggestions are made for expanding the existing data base and thus improving the ability to estimate hydrologic characteristics for Alaskan streams. (USGS)

Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tangri, Navdeep; Grams, Morgan E; Levey, Andrew S; Coresh, Josef; Appel, Lawrence J; Astor, Brad C; Chodick, Gabriel; Collins, Allan J; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Elley, C Raina; Evans, Marie; Garg, Amit X; Hallan, Stein I; Inker, Lesley A; Ito, Sadayoshi; Jee, Sun Ha; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kronenberg, Florian; Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers; Marks, Angharad; Nadkarni, Girish N; Navaneethan, Sankar D; Nelson, Robert G; Titze, Stephanie; Sarnak, Mark J; Stengel, Benedicte; Woodward, Mark; Iseki, Kunitoshi

2016-01-12

Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts. Addition of a calibration factor that lowered the baseline risk by 32.9% at 2 years and 16.5% at 5 years improved the calibration in 12 of 15 and 10 of 13 non-North American cohorts at 2 and 5 years, respectively (P = .04 and P = .02). Kidney failure risk equations developed in a Canadian population showed high discrimination and adequate calibration when validated in 31 multinational cohorts. However, in some regions the addition of a calibration factor may be necessary.

Uncertainty of the peak flow reconstruction of the 1907 flood in the Ebro River in Xerta (NE Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Bellet, Josep Lluís; Castelltort, Xavier; Balasch, J. Carles; Tuset, Jordi

2017-02-01

There is no clear, unified and accepted method to estimate the uncertainty of hydraulic modelling results. In historical floods reconstruction, due to the lower precision of input data, the magnitude of this uncertainty could reach a high value. With the objectives of giving an estimate of the peak flow error of a typical historical flood reconstruction with the model HEC-RAS and of providing a quick, simple uncertainty assessment that an end user could easily apply, the uncertainty of the reconstructed peak flow of a major flood in the Ebro River (NE Iberian Peninsula) was calculated with a set of local sensitivity analyses on six input variables. The peak flow total error was estimated at ±31% and water height was found to be the most influential variable on peak flow, followed by Manning's n. However, the latter, due to its large uncertainty, was the greatest contributor to peak flow total error. Besides, the HEC-RAS resulting peak flow was compared to the ones obtained with the 2D model Iber and with Manning's equation; all three methods gave similar peak flows. Manning's equation gave almost the same result than HEC-RAS. The main conclusion is that, to ensure the lowest peak flow error, the reliability and precision of the flood mark should be thoroughly assessed.

Application of conditional moment tests to model checking for generalized linear models.

PubMed

Pan, Wei

2002-06-01

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are increasingly being used in daily data analysis. However, model checking for GLMs with correlated discrete response data remains difficult. In this paper, through a case study on marginal logistic regression using a real data set, we illustrate the flexibility and effectiveness of using conditional moment tests (CMTs), along with other graphical methods, to do model checking for generalized estimation equation (GEE) analyses. Although CMTs provide an array of powerful diagnostic tests for model checking, they were originally proposed in the econometrics literature and, to our knowledge, have never been applied to GEE analyses. CMTs cover many existing tests, including the (generalized) score test for an omitted covariate, as special cases. In summary, we believe that CMTs provide a class of useful model checking tools.

Spot urine sodium measurements do not accurately estimate dietary sodium intake in chronic kidney disease12

PubMed Central

Dougher, Carly E; Rifkin, Dena E; Anderson, Cheryl AM; Smits, Gerard; Persky, Martha S; Block, Geoffrey A; Ix, Joachim H

2016-01-01

Background: Sodium intake influences blood pressure and proteinuria, yet the impact on long-term outcomes is uncertain in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Accurate assessment is essential for clinical and public policy recommendations, but few large-scale studies use 24-h urine collections. Recent studies that used spot urine sodium and associated estimating equations suggest that they may provide a suitable alternative, but their accuracy in patients with CKD is unknown. Objective: We compared the accuracy of 4 equations [the Nerbass, INTERSALT (International Cooperative Study on Salt, Other Factors, and Blood Pressure), Tanaka, and Kawasaki equations] that use spot urine sodium to estimate 24-h sodium excretion in patients with moderate to advanced CKD. Design: We evaluated the accuracy of spot urine sodium to predict mean 24-h urine sodium excretion over 9 mo in 129 participants with stage 3–4 CKD. Spot morning urine sodium was used in 4 estimating equations. Bias, precision, and accuracy were assessed and compared across each equation. Results: The mean age of the participants was 67 y, 52% were female, and the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 31 ± 9 mL · min–1 · 1.73 m–2. The mean ± SD number of 24-h urine collections was 3.5 ± 0.8/participant, and the mean 24-h sodium excretion was 168.2 ± 67.5 mmol/d. Although the Tanaka equation demonstrated the least bias (mean: −8.2 mmol/d), all 4 equations had poor precision and accuracy. The INTERSALT equation demonstrated the highest accuracy but derived an estimate only within 30% of mean measured sodium excretion in only 57% of observations. Bland-Altman plots revealed systematic bias with the Nerbass, INTERSALT, and Tanaka equations, underestimating sodium excretion when intake was high. Conclusion: These findings do not support the use of spot urine specimens to estimate dietary sodium intake in patients with CKD and research studies enriched with patients with CKD. The parent data for this study come from a clinical trial that was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00785629. PMID:27357090

Spot urine sodium measurements do not accurately estimate dietary sodium intake in chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Dougher, Carly E; Rifkin, Dena E; Anderson, Cheryl Am; Smits, Gerard; Persky, Martha S; Block, Geoffrey A; Ix, Joachim H

2016-08-01

Sodium intake influences blood pressure and proteinuria, yet the impact on long-term outcomes is uncertain in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Accurate assessment is essential for clinical and public policy recommendations, but few large-scale studies use 24-h urine collections. Recent studies that used spot urine sodium and associated estimating equations suggest that they may provide a suitable alternative, but their accuracy in patients with CKD is unknown. We compared the accuracy of 4 equations [the Nerbass, INTERSALT (International Cooperative Study on Salt, Other Factors, and Blood Pressure), Tanaka, and Kawasaki equations] that use spot urine sodium to estimate 24-h sodium excretion in patients with moderate to advanced CKD. We evaluated the accuracy of spot urine sodium to predict mean 24-h urine sodium excretion over 9 mo in 129 participants with stage 3-4 CKD. Spot morning urine sodium was used in 4 estimating equations. Bias, precision, and accuracy were assessed and compared across each equation. The mean age of the participants was 67 y, 52% were female, and the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 31 ± 9 mL · min(-1) · 1.73 m(-2) The mean ± SD number of 24-h urine collections was 3.5 ± 0.8/participant, and the mean 24-h sodium excretion was 168.2 ± 67.5 mmol/d. Although the Tanaka equation demonstrated the least bias (mean: -8.2 mmol/d), all 4 equations had poor precision and accuracy. The INTERSALT equation demonstrated the highest accuracy but derived an estimate only within 30% of mean measured sodium excretion in only 57% of observations. Bland-Altman plots revealed systematic bias with the Nerbass, INTERSALT, and Tanaka equations, underestimating sodium excretion when intake was high. These findings do not support the use of spot urine specimens to estimate dietary sodium intake in patients with CKD and research studies enriched with patients with CKD. The parent data for this study come from a clinical trial that was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00785629. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Probabilistic estimates of number of undiscovered deposits and their total tonnages in permissive tracts using deposit densities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.; Kouda, Ryoichi

2011-01-01

Empirical evidence indicates that processes affecting number and quantity of resources in geologic settings are very general across deposit types. Sizes of permissive tracts that geologically could contain the deposits are excellent predictors of numbers of deposits. In addition, total ore tonnage of mineral deposits of a particular type in a tract is proportional to the type’s median tonnage in a tract. Regressions using size of permissive tracts and median tonnage allow estimation of number of deposits and of total tonnage of mineralization. These powerful estimators, based on 10 different deposit types from 109 permissive worldwide control tracts, generalize across deposit types. Estimates of number of deposits and of total tonnage of mineral deposits are made by regressing permissive area, and mean (in logs) tons in deposits of the type, against number of deposits and total tonnage of deposits in the tract for the 50th percentile estimates. The regression equations (R2 = 0.91 and 0.95) can be used for all deposit types just by inserting logarithmic values of permissive area in square kilometers, and mean tons in deposits in millions of metric tons. The regression equations provide estimates at the 50th percentile, and other equations are provided for 90% confidence limits for lower estimates and 10% confidence limits for upper estimates of number of deposits and total tonnage. Equations for these percentile estimates along with expected value estimates are presented here along with comparisons with independent expert estimates. Also provided are the equations for correcting for the known well-explored deposits in a tract. These deposit-density models require internally consistent grade and tonnage models and delineations for arriving at unbiased estimates.

Estimating the glomerular filtration rate in the Spanish working population: chronic kidney disease prevalence and its association with risk factors.

PubMed

Sánchez-Chaparro, Miguel-Angel; Calvo-Bonacho, Eva; González-Quintela, Arturo; Cabrera, Martha; Quevedo-Aguado, Luis; Fernández-Labandera, Carlos; Ruiz-Moraga, Montserrat; Sainz-Gutiérrez, Juan Carlos; Gómez-Martínez, Pablo; Román-García, Javier; Felices, Pedro Valdivielso; Ruilope, Luis-Miguel; Zanchetti, Alberto

2014-10-01

This study aims to investigate the influence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with two equations (and by one or two separate measurements), on the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its association with blood pressure, and cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors. Between January 2010 and October 2011, the Ibermutuamur CArdiovascular RIsk Assessment project included 128 588 workers (77.2% men, mean age 39.3 years, range 16-75), who underwent two consecutive yearly medical check-ups and had information for eGFR according to the MDRD-IDMS and CKD-EPI equations (serum creatinine was measured by a isotope-dilution mass spectrometry traceable method in a single central laboratory). CKD was defined by an eGFR less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m. Subclinical (occult) renal disease was defined as an eGFR less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m in patients with serum creatinine below 1.3 mg/dl and below 1.2 mg/dl in men and women, respectively. In this working population, prevalence of CKD was very low, but two to six times lower when two separate eGFRs below 60 ml/min per 1.73 m were used. The prevalence of CKD was significantly lower with the CKD-EPI compared to the MDRD-IDMS equation. The same applies to occult CKD. In male workers, occult CKD was practically nonexistent.Multivariate analyses show that blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and serum glucose (positively), and high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein (negatively) were associated with CKD, with both equations. Another metabolic factor (waist circumference) was only associated (positively) with CKD defined by the CKD-EPI equation, which appears to be associated with most components of the metabolic syndrome. The CKD-EPI formula, calculated on the basis of two reported blood samples, may provide the most specific definition of CKD.

Parameter estimation problems for distributed systems using a multigrid method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ta'asan, Shlomo; Dutt, Pravir

1990-01-01

The problem of estimating spatially varying coefficients of partial differential equations is considered from observation of the solution and of the right hand side of the equation. It is assumed that the observations are distributed in the domain and that enough observations are given. A method of discretization and an efficient multigrid method for solving the resulting discrete systems are described. Numerical results are presented for estimation of coefficients in an elliptic and a parabolic partial differential equation.

Iohexol clearance is superior to creatinine-based renal function estimating equations in detecting short-term renal function decline in chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Cvan Trobec, Katja; Kerec Kos, Mojca; von Haehling, Stephan; Anker, Stefan D; Macdougall, Iain C; Ponikowski, Piotr; Lainscak, Mitja

2015-12-01

To compare the performance of iohexol plasma clearance and creatinine-based renal function estimating equations in monitoring longitudinal renal function changes in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, and to assess the effects of body composition on the equation performance. Iohexol plasma clearance was measured in 43 CHF patients at baseline and after at least 6 months. Simultaneously, renal function was estimated with five creatinine-based equations (four- and six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, Cockcroft-Gault, Cockcroft-Gault adjusted for lean body mass, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation) and body composition was assessed using bioimpedance and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Over a median follow-up of 7.5 months (range 6-17 months), iohexol clearance significantly declined (52.8 vs 44.4 mL/[min ×1.73 m2], P=0.001). This decline was significantly higher in patients receiving mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists at baseline (mean decline -22% of baseline value vs -3%, P=0.037). Mean serum creatinine concentration did not change significantly during follow-up and no creatinine-based renal function estimating equation was able to detect the significant longitudinal decline of renal function determined by iohexol clearance. After accounting for body composition, the accuracy of the equations improved, but not their ability to detect renal function decline. Renal function measured with iohexol plasma clearance showed relevant decline in CHF patients, particularly in those treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. None of the equations for renal function estimation was able to detect these changes. ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT01829880.

June and August median streamflows estimated for ungaged streams in southern Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2010-01-01

Methods for estimating June and August median streamflows were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in southern Maine. The methods apply to streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 0.4 to 74 square miles, with percentage of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer ranging from 0 to 84 percent, and with distance from the centroid of the basin to a Gulf of Maine line paralleling the coast ranging from 14 to 94 miles. Equations were developed with data from 4 long-term continuous-record streamgage stations and 27 partial-record streamgage stations. Estimates of median streamflows at the continuous-record and partial-record stations are presented. A mathematical technique for estimating standard low-flow statistics, such as June and August median streamflows, at partial-record streamgage stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily streamflows at nearby long-term (at least 10 years of record) continuous-record streamgage stations (index stations). Weighted least-squares regression analysis (WLS) was used to relate estimates of June and August median streamflows at streamgage stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be used to estimate June and August median streamflows on ungaged streams. WLS accounts for different periods of record at the gaging stations. Three basin characteristics-drainage area, percentage of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer, and distance from the centroid of the basin to a Gulf of Maine line paralleling the coast-are used in the final regression equation to estimate June and August median streamflows for ungaged streams. The three-variable equation to estimate June median streamflow has an average standard error of prediction from -35 to 54 percent. The three-variable equation to estimate August median streamflow has an average standard error of prediction from -45 to 83 percent. Simpler one-variable equations that use only drainage area to estimate June and August median streamflows were developed for use when less accuracy is acceptable. These equations have average standard errors of prediction from -46 to 87 percent and from -57 to 133 percent, respectively.

Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.

1997-01-01

Statewide regression equations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years for ungaged sites on natural unregulated streams. The most significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for natural unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and mean-annual precipitation. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation from manmade works. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are discussed. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climatic characteristics, and the peak-stream-flow frequency estimates for 251 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are listed. Techniques are presented to make a peak-streamflow frequency estimate for gaged sites on natural unregulated streams and to use this result to estimate a nearby ungaged site on the same stream. For ungaged sites on urban streams, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. For ungaged sites on streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow frequency. The statewide regression equations are adjusted by substituting the drainage area below the floodwater retarding structures, or drainage area that represents the percentage of the unregulated basin, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain peak-streamflow frequency estimates.

Stature estimation from body segment lengths in young adults--application to people with physical disabilities.

PubMed

Canda, Alicia

2009-03-01

Knowledge of stature is necessary for evaluating nutritional status and for correcting certain functional parameters. Measuring stature is difficult or impossible in bedridden or wheelchair-bound persons and may also be diminished by disorders of the spinal column or extremities. The purpose of this work is to develop estimation equations for young adult athletes for their subsequent application to disabled persons. The main sample comprised 445 male and 401 female sportspersons. Cross validation was also performed on 100 males and 101 females. All were Caucasian, the males being over 21 and the females over 18, and all practiced some kind of sport. The following variables were included: stature, sitting height, arm span, and lengths of upper arm, forearm, hand, thigh, lower leg, and foot. Simple and multiple regression analyses were performed using stature as a dependent variable and the others as predictive variables. The best equation for males (R(2)=0.978; RMSE=1.41 cm; PE=1.54 cm) was stature: 1.346+1.023 * lower leg+0.957 * sitting height+0.530 * thigh+0.493 * upper arm+0.228 * forearm. For females (R(2)=0.959; RMSE=1.57 cm; PE=1.25 cm) it was stature: 1.772+0.159 * arm span+0.957 * sitting height+0.424 * thigh+0.966 * lower leg. Alternative equations were developed for when a particular variable cannot be included for reasons of mobility, technical difficulty, or segment loss.

Bohr effect of avian hemoglobins: Quantitative analyses based on the Wyman equation.

PubMed

Okonjo, Kehinde O

2016-12-07

The Bohr effect data for bar-headed goose, greylag goose and pheasant hemoglobins can be fitted with the Wyman equation for the Bohr effect, but under one proviso: that the pK a of His146β does not change following the T→R quaternary transition. This assumption is based on the x-ray structure of bar-headed goose hemoglobin, which shows that the salt-bridge formed between His146β and Asp94β in human deoxyhemoglobin is not formed in goose deoxyhemoglobin. When the Bohr data for chicken hemoglobin were fitted by making the same assumption, the pK a of the NH 3 + terminal group of Val1α decreased from 7.76 to 6.48 following the T→R transition. When the data were fitted without making any assumption, the pK a of the NH 3 + terminal group increased from 7.57 to 7.77 following the T→R transition. We demonstrate that avian hemoglobin Bohr data are readily fitted with the Wyman equation because avian hemoglobins lack His77β. From curve-fitting to Bohr data we estimate the pK a s of the NH 3 + terminal group of Val1α in the R and T states to be 6.33±0.1 and 7.22±0.1, respectively. We provide evidence indicating that these pK a s are more accurate than estimates from kinetic studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Back-calculating baseline creatinine overestimates prevalence of acute kidney injury with poor sensitivity.

PubMed

Kork, F; Balzer, F; Krannich, A; Bernardi, M H; Eltzschig, H K; Jankowski, J; Spies, C

2017-03-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is diagnosed by a 50% increase in creatinine. For patients without a baseline creatinine measurement, guidelines suggest estimating baseline creatinine by back-calculation. The aim of this study was to evaluate different glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equations and different GFR assumptions for back-calculating baseline creatinine as well as the effect on the diagnosis of AKI. The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPI) and the Mayo quadratic (MQ) equation were evaluated to estimate baseline creatinine, each under the assumption of either a fixed GFR of 75 mL min -1  1.73 m -2 or an age-adjusted GFR. Estimated baseline creatinine, diagnoses and severity stages of AKI based on estimated baseline creatinine were compared to measured baseline creatinine and corresponding diagnoses and severity stages of AKI. The data of 34 690 surgical patients were analysed. Estimating baseline creatinine overestimated baseline creatinine. Diagnosing AKI based on estimated baseline creatinine had only substantial agreement with AKI diagnoses based on measured baseline creatinine [Cohen's κ ranging from 0.66 (95% CI 0.65-0.68) to 0.77 (95% CI 0.76-0.79)] and overestimated AKI prevalence with fair sensitivity [ranging from 74.3% (95% CI 72.3-76.2) to 90.1% (95% CI 88.6-92.1)]. Staging AKI severity based on estimated baseline creatinine had moderate agreement with AKI severity based on measured baseline creatinine [Cohen's κ ranging from 0.43 (95% CI 0.42-0.44) to 0.53 (95% CI 0.51-0.55)]. Diagnosing AKI and staging AKI severity on the basis of estimated baseline creatinine in surgical patients is not feasible. Patients at risk for post-operative AKI should have a pre-operative creatinine measurement to adequately assess post-operative AKI. © 2016 Scandinavian Physiological Society. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A stockability equation for forest land in Siskiyou County, California.

Treesearch

Neil. McKay

1985-01-01

An equation is presented that estimates the relative stocking capacity of forest land in Siskiyou County, California, from the amount of precipitation and the presence of significant indicator plants. The equation is a toot for identifying sites incapable of supporting normal stocking. Estimated relative stocking capacity may be used to discount normal yields to levels...

An Improved Estimation Using Polya-Gamma Augmentation for Bayesian Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seohyun; Lu, Zhenqiu; Cohen, Allan S.

2018-01-01

Bayesian algorithms have been used successfully in the social and behavioral sciences to analyze dichotomous data particularly with complex structural equation models. In this study, we investigate the use of the Polya-Gamma data augmentation method with Gibbs sampling to improve estimation of structural equation models with dichotomous variables.…

Estimating leaf area and leaf biomass of open-grown deciduous urban trees

Treesearch

David J. Nowak

1996-01-01

Logarithmic regression equations were developed to predict leaf area and leaf biomass for open-grown deciduous urban trees based on stem diameter and crown parameters. Equations based on crown parameters produced more reliable estimates. The equations can be used to help quantify forest structure and functions, particularly in urbanizing and urban/suburban areas.

Biomass estimators for thinned second-growth ponderosa pine trees.

Treesearch

P.H. Cochran; J.W. Jennings; C.T. Youngberg

1984-01-01

Usable estimates of the mass of live foliage and limbs of sapling and pole-sized ponderosa pine in managed stands in central Oregon can be obtained with equations using the logarithm of diameter as the only independent variable. These equations produce only slightly higher root mean square deviations than equations that include additional independent variables. A...

Estimated Satellite Cluster Elements in Near Circular Orbit

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-01

cluster is investigated. TheAon-board estimator is the U-D covariance factor’xzatiion’filter with dynamics based on the Clohessy - Wiltshire equations...Appropriate values for the velocity vector vi can be found irom the Clohessy - Wiltshire equations [9] (these equations will be explained in detail in the...explained in this text is the f matrix. The state transition matrix was developed from the Clohessy - Wiltshire equations of motion [9:page 3] as i - 2qý

Regression Equations for Estimating Flood Flows at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Ungaged Streams in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2008-01-01

Regression equations were developed for estimating flood flows at selected recurrence intervals for ungaged streams in Pennsylvania with drainage areas less than 2,000 square miles. These equations were developed utilizing peak-flow data from 322 streamflow-gaging stations within Pennsylvania and surrounding states. All stations used in the development of the equations had 10 or more years of record and included active and discontinued continuous-record as well as crest-stage partial-record stations. The state was divided into four regions, and regional regression equations were developed to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flood flows. The equations were developed by means of a regression analysis that utilized basin characteristics and flow data associated with the stations. Significant explanatory variables at the 95-percent confidence level for one or more regression equations included the following basin characteristics: drainage area; mean basin elevation; and the percentages of carbonate bedrock, urban area, and storage within a basin. The regression equations can be used to predict the magnitude of flood flows for specified recurrence intervals for most streams in the state; however, they are not valid for streams with drainage areas generally greater than 2,000 square miles or with substantial regulation, diversion, or mining activity within the basin. Estimates of flood-flow magnitude and frequency for streamflow-gaging stations substantially affected by upstream regulation are also presented.

Estimating Renal Function in the Elderly Malaysian Patients Attending Medical Outpatient Clinic: A Comparison between Creatinine Based and Cystatin-C Based Equations.

PubMed

Jalalonmuhali, Maisarah; Elagel, Salma Mohamed Abouzriba; Tan, Maw Pin; Lim, Soo Kun; Ng, Kok Peng

2018-01-01

To assess the performance of different GFR estimating equations, test the diagnostic value of serum cystatin-C, and compare the applicability of cystatin-C based equation with serum creatinine based equation for estimating GFR (eGFR) in comparison with measured GFR in the elderly Malaysian patients. A cross-sectional study recruiting volunteered patients 65 years and older attending medical outpatient clinic. 51 chromium EDTA ( 51 Cr-EDTA) was used as measured GFR. The predictive capabilities of Cockcroft-Gault equation corrected for body surface area (CGBSA), four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (4-MDRD), and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations using serum creatinine (CKD-EPIcr) as well as serum cystatin-C (CKD-EPIcys) were calculated. A total of 40 patients, 77.5% male, with mean measured GFR 41.2 ± 18.9 ml/min/1.73 m 2 were enrolled. Mean bias was the smallest for 4-MDRD; meanwhile, CKD-EPIcr had the highest precision and accuracy with lower limit of agreement among other equations. CKD-EPIcys equation did not show any improvement in GFR estimation in comparison to CKD-EPIcr and MDRD. The CKD-EPIcr formula appears to be more accurate and correlates better with measured GFR in this cohort of elderly patients.

Nationwide summary of US Geological Survey regional regression equations for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, M.E.; Thomas, W.O.; Riggs, H.C.

1994-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been involved in the development of regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally these equations have been developed on a statewide or metropolitan area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation or specific cities. The USGS, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has compiled all the current (as of September 1993) statewide and metropolitan area regression equations into a micro-computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program.This program includes regression equations for estimating flood-peak discharges and techniques for estimating a typical flood hydrograph for a given recurrence interval peak discharge for unregulated rural and urban watersheds. These techniques should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report summarizes the statewide regression equations for rural watersheds in each State, summarizes the applicable metropolitan area or statewide regression equations for urban watersheds, describes the National Flood Frequency Program for making these computations, and provides much of the reference information on the extrapolation variables needed to run the program.

Equations for estimating synthetic unit-hydrograph parameter values for small watersheds in Lake County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melching, C.S.; Marquardt, J.S.

1997-01-01

Design hydrographs computed from design storms, simple models of abstractions (interception, depression storage, and infiltration), and synthetic unit hydrographs provide vital information for stormwater, flood-plain, and water-resources management throughout the United States. Rainfall and runoff data for small watersheds in Lake County collected between 1990 and 1995 were studied to develop equations for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters on the basis of watershed and storm characteristics. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters of interest were the time of concentration (TC) and watershed-storage coefficient (R) for the Clark unit-hydrograph method, the unit-graph lag (UL) for the Soil Conservation Service (now known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service) dimensionless unit hydrograph, and the hydrograph-time lag (TL) for the linear-reservoir method for unit-hydrograph estimation. Data from 66 storms with effective-precipitation depths greater than 0.4 inches on 9 small watersheds (areas between 0.06 and 37 square miles (mi2)) were utilized to develop the estimation equations, and data from 11 storms on 8 of these watersheds were utilized to verify (test) the estimation equations. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters were determined by calibration using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Hydrograph Package HEC-1 (TC, R, and UL) or by manual analysis of the rainfall and run-off data (TL). The relation between synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters, and watershed and storm characteristics was determined by multiple linear regression of the logarithms of the parameters and characteristics. Separate sets of equations were developed with watershed area and main channel length as the starting parameters. Percentage of impervious cover, main channel slope, and depth of effective precipitation also were identified as important characteristics for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters. The estimation equations utilizing area had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.873, 0.961, 0.968, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively, and the estimation equations utilizing main channel length had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.845, 0.957, 0.961, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively. Simulation of the measured hydrographs for the verification storms utilizing TC and R obtained from the estimation equations yielded good results without calibration. The peak discharge for 8 of the 11 storms was estimated within 25 percent and the time-to-peak discharge for 10 of the 11 storms was estimated within 20 percent. Thus, application of the estimation equations to determine synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters for design-storm simulation may result in reliable design hydrographs; as long as the physical characteristics of the watersheds under consideration are within the range of those for the watersheds in this study (area: 0.06-37 mi2, main channel length: 0.33-16.6 miles, main channel slope: 3.13-55.3 feet per mile, and percentage of impervious cover: 7.32-40.6 percent). The estimation equations are most reliable when applied to watersheds with areas less than 25 mi2.

Application of Acoustic and Optic Methods for Estimating Suspended-Solids Concentrations in the St. Lucie River Estuary, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, Eduardo; Byrne, Michael J.

2004-01-01

Acoustic and optic methods were applied to estimate suspended-solids concentrations in the St. Lucie River Estuary, southeastern Florida. Acoustic Doppler velocity meters were installed at the North Fork, Speedy Point, and Steele Point sites within the estuary. These sites provide varying flow, salinity, water-quality, and channel cross-sectional characteristics. The monitoring site at Steele Point was not used in the analyses because repeated instrument relocations (due to bridge construction) prevented a sufficient number of samples from being collected at the various locations. Acoustic and optic instruments were installed to collect water velocity, acoustic backscatter strength (ABS), and turbidity data that were used to assess the feasibility of estimating suspended-solids concentrations in the estuary. Other data collected at the monitoring sites include tidal stage, salinity, temperature, and periodic discharge measurements. Regression analyses were used to determine the relations of suspended-solids concentration to ABS and suspended-solids concentration to turbidity at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. For samples used in regression analyses, measured suspended-solids concentrations at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites ranged from 3 to 37 milligrams per liter, and organic content ranged from 50 to 83 percent. Corresponding salinity for these samples ranged from 0.12 to 22.7 parts per thousand, and corresponding temperature ranged from 19.4 to 31.8 ?C. Relations determined using this technique are site specific and only describe suspended-solids concentrations at locations where data were collected. The suspended-solids concentration to ABS relation resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.63 at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites, respectively. The suspended-solids concentration to turbidity relation resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.73 and 0.89 at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites, respectively. The adequacy of the empirical equations seems to be limited by the number and distribution of suspended-solids samples collected throughout the expected concentration range at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. Additionally, the ABS relations for both sites seem to overestimate at the low end and underestimate at the high end of the concentration range. Based on the sensitivity analysis, temperature had a greater effect than salinity on estimated suspended-solids concentrations. Temperature also appeared to affect ABS data, perhaps by changing the absorptive and reflective characteristics of the suspended material. Salinity and temperature had no observed effects on the turbidity relation at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. Estimates of suspended-solids concentrations using ABS data were less 'erratic' than estimates using turbidity data. Combining ABS and turbidity data into one equation did not improve the accuracy of results, and therefore, was not considered.

Efficient parameter estimation in longitudinal data analysis using a hybrid GEE method.

PubMed

Leung, Denis H Y; Wang, You-Gan; Zhu, Min

2009-07-01

The method of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) provides consistent estimates of the regression parameters in a marginal regression model for longitudinal data, even when the working correlation model is misspecified (Liang and Zeger, 1986). However, the efficiency of a GEE estimate can be seriously affected by the choice of the working correlation model. This study addresses this problem by proposing a hybrid method that combines multiple GEEs based on different working correlation models, using the empirical likelihood method (Qin and Lawless, 1994). Analyses show that this hybrid method is more efficient than a GEE using a misspecified working correlation model. Furthermore, if one of the working correlation structures correctly models the within-subject correlations, then this hybrid method provides the most efficient parameter estimates. In simulations, the hybrid method's finite-sample performance is superior to a GEE under any of the commonly used working correlation models and is almost fully efficient in all scenarios studied. The hybrid method is illustrated using data from a longitudinal study of the respiratory infection rates in 275 Indonesian children.

Generalized equations for estimating DXA percent fat of diverse young women and men: The Tiger Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Popular generalized equations for estimating percent body fat (BF%) developed with cross-sectional data are biased when applied to racially/ethnically diverse populations. We developed accurate anthropometric models to estimate dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry BF% (DXA-BF%) that can be generalized t...

Estimating air drying times of lumber with multiple regression

Treesearch

William T. Simpson

2004-01-01

In this study, the applicability of a multiple regression equation for estimating air drying times of red oak, sugar maple, and ponderosa pine lumber was evaluated. The equation allows prediction of estimated air drying times from historic weather records of temperature and relative humidity at any desired location.

Estimating total forest biomass in Maine, 1995

Treesearch

Eric H. Wharton; Douglas M. Griffith; Douglas M. Griffith

1998-01-01

Presents methods for synthesizing information from existing biomass literature for estimating biomass over extensive forest areas with specific applications to Maine. Tables of appropriate regression equations and the tree and shrub species to which these equations can be applied are presented as well as biomass estimates at the county and state level.

Estimating northern red oak crown component weights in the Northeastern United States.

Treesearch

Robert M. Loomis; Richard W. Blank

1981-01-01

Equations are described for estimating crown weights for northern red oak trees. These estimates are for foliage and branchwood weights. Branchwood (wood plus bark) amounts are subdivided by living and dead material into four size groups. Applicability of the equations for other species is examined.

Development of regression equations to revise estimates of historical streamflows for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota (water years 1910-2011), and Prescott, Wisconsin (water years 1910-2007)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Magdalene, Suzanne

2015-01-01

The new regression equations were used to calculate revised estimates of historical streamflows for Stillwater and Prescott starting in 1910 and ending when index-velocity streamgages were installed. Monthly, annual, 30-year, and period of record statistics were examined between previous and revised estimates of historical streamflows. The abilities of the new regression equations to estimate historical streamflows were evaluated by using percent differences to compare new estimates of historical daily streamflows to discrete streamflow measurements made at Stillwater and Prescott before the installation of index-velocity streamgages. Although less variability was observed between estimated and measured streamflows at Stillwater compared to Prescott, the percent difference data indicated that the new estimates closely approximated measured streamflows at both locations.

Use of digital land-cover data from the Landsat satellite in estimating streamflow characteristics in the Cumberland Plateau of Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hollyday, E.F.; Hansen, G.R.

1983-01-01

Streamflow may be estimated with regression equations that relate streamflow characteristics to characteristics of the drainage basin. A statistical experiment was performed to compare the accuracy of equations using basin characteristics derived from maps and climatological records (control group equations) with the accuracy of equations using basin characteristics derived from Landsat data as well as maps and climatological records (experimental group equations). Results show that when the equations in both groups are arranged into six flow categories, there is no substantial difference in accuracy between control group equations and experimental group equations for this particular site where drainage area accounts for more than 90 percent of the variance in all streamflow characteristics (except low flows and most annual peak logarithms). (USGS)

Assessing Glomerular Filtration Rate in Hospitalized Patients: A Comparison Between CKD-EPI and Four Cystatin C-Based Equations

PubMed Central

de la Torre, Judith; Ramos, Natalia; Quiroz, Augusto; Garjau, Maria; Torres, Irina; Azancot, M. Antonia; López, Montserrat; Sobrado, Ana

2011-01-01

Summary Background and objectives A specific method is required for estimating glomerular filtration rate GFR in hospitalized patients. Our objective was to validate the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation and four cystatin C (CysC)–based equations in this setting. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This was an epidemiologic, cross-sectional study in a random sample of hospitalized patients (n = 3114). We studied the accuracy of the CKD-EPI and four CysC-based equations—based on (1) CysC alone or (2) adjusted by gender; (3) age, gender, and race; and (4) age, gender, race, and creatinine, respectively—compared with GFR measured by iohexol clearance (mGFR). Clinical, biochemical, and nutritional data were also collected. Results The CysC equation 3 significantly overestimated the GFR (bias of 7.4 ml/min per 1.73 m2). Most of the error in creatinine-based equations was attributable to calculated muscle mass, which depended on patient's nutritional status. In patients without malnutrition or reduced body surface area, the CKD-EPI equation adequately estimated GFR. Equations based on CysC gave more precise mGFR estimates when malnutrition, extensive reduction of body surface area, or loss of muscle mass were present (biases of 1 and 1.3 ml/min per 1.73 m2 for equations 2 and 4, respectively, versus 5.9 ml/min per 1.73 m2 for CKD-EPI). Conclusions These results suggest that the use of equations based on CysC and gender, or CysC, age, gender, and race, is more appropriate in hospitalized patients to estimate GFR, since these equations are much less dependent on patient's nutritional status or muscle mass than the CKD-EPI equation. PMID:21852668

Comparison of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in healthy nonobese and obese adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Frankenfield, David; Roth-Yousey, Lori; Compher, Charlene

2005-05-01

An assessment of energy needs is a necessary component in the development and evaluation of a nutrition care plan. The metabolic rate can be measured or estimated by equations, but estimation is by far the more common method. However, predictive equations might generate errors large enough to impact outcome. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature was undertaken to document the accuracy of predictive equations preliminary to deciding on the imperative to measure metabolic rate. As part of a larger project to determine the role of indirect calorimetry in clinical practice, an evidence team identified published articles that examined the validity of various predictive equations for resting metabolic rate (RMR) in nonobese and obese people and also in individuals of various ethnic and age groups. Articles were accepted based on defined criteria and abstracted using evidence analysis tools developed by the American Dietetic Association. Because these equations are applied by dietetics practitioners to individuals, a key inclusion criterion was research reports of individual data. The evidence was systematically evaluated, and a conclusion statement and grade were developed. Four prediction equations were identified as the most commonly used in clinical practice (Harris-Benedict, Mifflin-St Jeor, Owen, and World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University [WHO/FAO/UNU]). Of these equations, the Mifflin-St Jeor equation was the most reliable, predicting RMR within 10% of measured in more nonobese and obese individuals than any other equation, and it also had the narrowest error range. No validation work concentrating on individual errors was found for the WHO/FAO/UNU equation. Older adults and US-residing ethnic minorities were underrepresented both in the development of predictive equations and in validation studies. The Mifflin-St Jeor equation is more likely than the other equations tested to estimate RMR to within 10% of that measured, but noteworthy errors and limitations exist when it is applied to individuals and possibly when it is generalized to certain age and ethnic groups. RMR estimation errors would be eliminated by valid measurement of RMR with indirect calorimetry, using an evidence-based protocol to minimize measurement error. The Expert Panel advises clinical judgment regarding when to accept estimated RMR using predictive equations in any given individual. Indirect calorimetry may be an important tool when, in the judgment of the clinician, the predictive methods fail an individual in a clinically relevant way. For members of groups that are greatly underrepresented by existing validation studies of predictive equations, a high level of suspicion regarding the accuracy of the equations is warranted.

The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model: A Dynamic Approach for Predicting Soil Loss on Rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Mariano; Nearing, Mark A.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Pierson, Frederick B.; Armendariz, Gerardo; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Williams, C. Jason; Nouwakpo, Sayjro K.; Goodrich, David C.; Unkrich, Carl L.; Nichols, Mary H.; Holifield Collins, Chandra D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present the improved Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM V2.3), a process-based erosion prediction tool specific for rangeland application. The article provides the mathematical formulation of the model and parameter estimation equations. Model performance is assessed against data collected from 23 runoff and sediment events in a shrub-dominated semiarid watershed in Arizona, USA. To evaluate the model, two sets of primary model parameters were determined using the RHEM V2.3 and RHEM V1.0 parameter estimation equations. Testing of the parameters indicated that RHEM V2.3 parameter estimation equations provided a 76% improvement over RHEM V1.0 parameter estimation equations. Second, the RHEM V2.3 model was calibrated to measurements from the watershed. The parameters estimated by the new equations were within the lowest and highest values of the calibrated parameter set. These results suggest that the new parameter estimation equations can be applied for this environment to predict sediment yield at the hillslope scale. Furthermore, we also applied the RHEM V2.3 to demonstrate the response of the model as a function of foliar cover and ground cover for 124 data points across Arizona and New Mexico. The dependence of average sediment yield on surface ground cover was moderately stronger than that on foliar cover. These results demonstrate that RHEM V2.3 predicts runoff volume, peak runoff, and sediment yield with sufficient accuracy for broad application to assess and manage rangeland systems.

Modelling of capital asset pricing by considering the lagged effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Bon, A. Talib bin; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

In this paper the problem of modelling the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the effect of the lagged is discussed. It is assumed that asset returns are analysed influenced by the market return and the return of risk-free assets. To analyse the relationship between asset returns, the market return, and the return of risk-free assets, it is conducted by using a regression equation of CAPM, and regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM. Associated with the regression equation lagged CAPM distributed, this paper also developed a regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM. Results of development show that the regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM has advantages, namely simple as it only requires three parameters, compared with regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM.

Peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Peak-flow annual exceedance probabilities, also called probability-percent chance flow estimates, and regional regression equations are provided describing the peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate peak-flow data. Analysis of Virginia peak-flow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating unregulated peak flow of gaged and ungaged streams. Station peak-flow characteristics identified by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows to a Log Pearson Type III frequency distribution yield annual exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.4292, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 for 476 streamgaging stations. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression model equations for six physiographic regions to estimate regional annual exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted peak-flow values that combine annual exceedance probabilities computed from gaging station data and from regional regression equations provide improved peak-flow estimates. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing selected peak-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, peak-flow estimates, basin characteristics, regional regression model equations, error estimates, definitions, data sources, and candidate regression model equations. This study supersedes previous studies of peak flows in Virginia.

August Median Streamflow on Ungaged Streams in Eastern Aroostook County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Tasker, Gary D.; Nielsen, Martha G.

2003-01-01

Methods for estimating August median streamflow were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in the eastern part of Aroostook County, Maine, with drainage areas from 0.38 to 43 square miles and mean basin elevations from 437 to 1,024 feet. Few long-term, continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with small drainage areas were available from which to develop the equations; therefore, 24 partial-record gaging stations were established in this investigation. A mathematical technique for estimating a standard low-flow statistic, August median streamflow, at partial-record stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily flows at nearby long-term, continuous-record streamflow- gaging stations (index stations). Generalized least-squares regression analysis (GLS) was used to relate estimates of August median streamflow at gaging stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be applied to estimate August median streamflow on ungaged streams. GLS accounts for varying periods of record at the gaging stations and the cross correlation of concurrent streamflows among gaging stations. Twenty-three partial-record stations and one continuous-record station were used for the final regression equations. The basin characteristics of drainage area and mean basin elevation are used in the calculated regression equation for ungaged streams to estimate August median flow. The equation has an average standard error of prediction from -38 to 62 percent. A one-variable equation uses only drainage area to estimate August median streamflow when less accuracy is acceptable. This equation has an average standard error of prediction from -40 to 67 percent. Model error is larger than sampling error for both equations, indicating that additional basin characteristics could be important to improved estimates of low-flow statistics. Weighted estimates of August median streamflow, which can be used when making estimates at partial-record or continuous-record gaging stations, range from 0.03 to 11.7 cubic feet per second or from 0.1 to 0.4 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow on ungaged streams in the eastern part of Aroostook County, within the range of acceptable explanatory variables, range from 0.03 to 30 cubic feet per second or 0.1 to 0.7 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow per square mile of drainage area generally increase as mean elevation and drainage area increase.

First-Order System Least-Squares for the Navier-Stokes Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bochev, P.; Cai, Z.; Manteuffel, T. A.; McCormick, S. F.

1996-01-01

This paper develops a least-squares approach to the solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables. As with our earlier work on Stokes equations, we recast the Navier-Stokes equations as a first-order system by introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations. We show that the resulting system is well-posed, and that an associated least-squares principle yields optimal discretization error estimates in the H(sup 1) norm in each variable (including the velocity flux) and optimal multigrid convergence estimates for the resulting algebraic system.

Estimation of shortwave hemispherical reflectance (albedo) from bidirectionally reflected radiance data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starks, Patrick J.; Norman, John M.; Blad, Blaine L.; Walter-Shea, Elizabeth A.; Walthall, Charles L.

1991-01-01

An equation for estimating albedo from bidirectional reflectance data is proposed. The estimates of albedo are found to be greater than values obtained with simultaneous pyranometer measurements. Particular attention is given to potential sources of systematic errors including extrapolation of bidirectional reflectance data out to a view zenith angle of 90 deg, the use of inappropriate weighting coefficients in the numerator of the albedo equation, surface shadowing caused by the A-frame instrumentation used to measure the incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes, errors in estimates of the denominator of the proposed albedo equation, and a 'hot spot' contribution in bidirectional data measured by a modular multiband radiometer.

Orbital stability and energy estimate of ground states of saturable nonlinear Schrödinger equations with intensity functions in R2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tai-Chia; Wang, Xiaoming; Wang, Zhi-Qiang

2017-10-01

Conventionally, the existence and orbital stability of ground states of nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equations with power-law nonlinearity (subcritical case) can be proved by an argument using strict subadditivity of the ground state energy and the concentration compactness method of Cazenave and Lions [4]. However, for saturable nonlinearity, such an argument is not applicable because strict subadditivity of the ground state energy fails in this case. Here we use a convexity argument to prove the existence and orbital stability of ground states of NLS equations with saturable nonlinearity and intensity functions in R2. Besides, we derive the energy estimate of ground states of saturable NLS equations with intensity functions using the eigenvalue estimate of saturable NLS equations without intensity function.

Variational estimate method for solving autonomous ordinary differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mungkasi, Sudi

2018-04-01

In this paper, we propose a method for solving first-order autonomous ordinary differential equation problems using a variational estimate formulation. The variational estimate is constructed with a Lagrange multiplier which is chosen optimally, so that the formulation leads to an accurate solution to the problem. The variational estimate is an integral form, which can be computed using a computer software. As the variational estimate is an explicit formula, the solution is easy to compute. This is a great advantage of the variational estimate formulation.

The self-perception of dyspnoea threshold during the 6-min walk test: a good alternative to estimate the ventilatory threshold in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Couillard, Annabelle; Tremey, Emilie; Prefaut, Christian; Varray, Alain; Heraud, Nelly

2016-12-01

To determine and/or adjust exercise training intensity for patients when the cardiopulmonary exercise test is not accessible, the determination of dyspnoea threshold (defined as the onset of self-perceived breathing discomfort) during the 6-min walk test (6MWT) could be a good alternative. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and reproducibility of self-perceived dyspnoea threshold and to determine whether a useful equation to estimate ventilatory threshold from self-perceived dyspnoea threshold could be derived. A total of 82 patients were included and performed two 6MWTs, during which they raised a hand to signal self-perceived dyspnoea threshold. The reproducibility in terms of heart rate (HR) was analysed. On a subsample of patients (n=27), a stepwise regression analysis was carried out to obtain a predictive equation of HR at ventilatory threshold measured during a cardiopulmonary exercise test estimated from HR at self-perceived dyspnoea threshold, age and forced expiratory volume in 1 s. Overall, 80% of patients could identify self-perceived dyspnoea threshold during the 6MWT. Self-perceived dyspnoea threshold was reproducibly expressed in HR (coefficient of variation=2.8%). A stepwise regression analysis enabled estimation of HR at ventilatory threshold from HR at self-perceived dyspnoea threshold, age and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (adjusted r=0.79, r=0.63, and relative standard deviation=9.8 bpm). This study shows that a majority of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease can identify a self-perceived dyspnoea threshold during the 6MWT. This HR at the dyspnoea threshold is highly reproducible and enable estimation of the HR at the ventilatory threshold.

Alternative supply specifications and estimates of regional supply and demand for stumpage.

Treesearch

Kent P. Connaughton; David H. Jackson; Gerard A. Majerus

1988-01-01

Four plausible sets of stumpage supply and demand equations were developed and estimated; the demand equation was the same for each set, although the supply equation differed. The supply specifications varied from the model of regional excess demand in which National Forest harvest levels were assumed fixed to a more realistic model in which the harvest on the National...

Cycle-time equations for five small tractors operating in low-volume small-diameter hardwood stands

Treesearch

Chris B. LeDoux; Neil K. Huyler; Neil K. Huyler

1992-01-01

Prediction equations for estimating cycle time were developed for five small tractors studied under various silvicultural treatments and operating conditions. The tractors studied included the Pasquali 933, a Holder A60F, a Forest Ant Forwarder (Skogsman), a Massey-Ferguson, and a Sam4 Minitarus. Skidding costs were estimated based on the cycle-time equations. Using...

Estimation of delays and other parameters in nonlinear functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Lamm, P. K. D.

1983-01-01

A spline-based approximation scheme for nonlinear nonautonomous delay differential equations is discussed. Convergence results (using dissipative type estimates on the underlying nonlinear operators) are given in the context of parameter estimation problems which include estimation of multiple delays and initial data as well as the usual coefficient-type parameters. A brief summary of some of the related numerical findings is also given.

Predictive equations for the estimation of body size in seals and sea lions (Carnivora: Pinnipedia)

PubMed Central

Churchill, Morgan; Clementz, Mark T; Kohno, Naoki

2014-01-01

Body size plays an important role in pinniped ecology and life history. However, body size data is often absent for historical, archaeological, and fossil specimens. To estimate the body size of pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, and walruses) for today and the past, we used 14 commonly preserved cranial measurements to develop sets of single variable and multivariate predictive equations for pinniped body mass and total length. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to test whether separate family specific regressions were more appropriate than single predictive equations for Pinnipedia. The influence of phylogeny was tested with phylogenetic independent contrasts (PIC). The accuracy of these regressions was then assessed using a combination of coefficient of determination, percent prediction error, and standard error of estimation. Three different methods of multivariate analysis were examined: bidirectional stepwise model selection using Akaike information criteria; all-subsets model selection using Bayesian information criteria (BIC); and partial least squares regression. The PCA showed clear discrimination between Otariidae (fur seals and sea lions) and Phocidae (earless seals) for the 14 measurements, indicating the need for family-specific regression equations. The PIC analysis found that phylogeny had a minor influence on relationship between morphological variables and body size. The regressions for total length were more accurate than those for body mass, and equations specific to Otariidae were more accurate than those for Phocidae. Of the three multivariate methods, the all-subsets approach required the fewest number of variables to estimate body size accurately. We then used the single variable predictive equations and the all-subsets approach to estimate the body size of two recently extinct pinniped taxa, the Caribbean monk seal (Monachus tropicalis) and the Japanese sea lion (Zalophus japonicus). Body size estimates using single variable regressions generally under or over-estimated body size; however, the all-subset regression produced body size estimates that were close to historically recorded body length for these two species. This indicates that the all-subset regression equations developed in this study can estimate body size accurately. PMID:24916814

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of peak flows for natural streams in Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenney, Terry A.; Wilkowske, Chris D.; Wright, Shane J.

2007-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows is critical for the safe and cost-effective design of hydraulic structures and stream crossings, and accurate delineation of flood plains. Engineers, planners, resource managers, and scientists need accurate estimates of peak-flow return frequencies for locations on streams with and without streamflow-gaging stations. The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows were estimated for 344 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Utah and nearby in bordering states. These data along with 23 basin and climatic characteristics computed for each station were used to develop regional peak-flow frequency and magnitude regression equations for 7 geohydrologic regions of Utah. These regression equations can be used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak flows for natural streams in Utah within the presented range of predictor variables. Uncertainty, presented as the average standard error of prediction, was computed for each developed equation. Equations developed using data from more than 35 gaging stations had standard errors of prediction that ranged from 35 to 108 percent, and errors for equations developed using data from less than 35 gaging stations ranged from 50 to 357 percent.

On the Multilevel Nature of Meta-Analysis: A Tutorial, Comparison of Software Programs, and Discussion of Analytic Choices.

PubMed

Pastor, Dena A; Lazowski, Rory A

2018-01-01

The term "multilevel meta-analysis" is encountered not only in applied research studies, but in multilevel resources comparing traditional meta-analysis to multilevel meta-analysis. In this tutorial, we argue that the term "multilevel meta-analysis" is redundant since all meta-analysis can be formulated as a special kind of multilevel model. To clarify the multilevel nature of meta-analysis the four standard meta-analytic models are presented using multilevel equations and fit to an example data set using four software programs: two specific to meta-analysis (metafor in R and SPSS macros) and two specific to multilevel modeling (PROC MIXED in SAS and HLM). The same parameter estimates are obtained across programs underscoring that all meta-analyses are multilevel in nature. Despite the equivalent results, not all software programs are alike and differences are noted in the output provided and estimators available. This tutorial also recasts distinctions made in the literature between traditional and multilevel meta-analysis as differences between meta-analytic choices, not between meta-analytic models, and provides guidance to inform choices in estimators, significance tests, moderator analyses, and modeling sequence. The extent to which the software programs allow flexibility with respect to these decisions is noted, with metafor emerging as the most favorable program reviewed.

Bootstrap Estimation of Sample Statistic Bias in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Bruce; Fan, Xitao

This study empirically investigated bootstrap bias estimation in the area of structural equation modeling (SEM). Three correctly specified SEM models were used under four different sample size conditions. Monte Carlo experiments were carried out to generate the criteria against which bootstrap bias estimation should be judged. For SEM fit indices,…

Estimating total forest biomass in New York, 1993

Treesearch

Eric Wharton; Carol Alerich; David A. Drake; David A. Drake

1997-01-01

Presents methods for synthesizing information from existing biomass literature for estimating biomass over extensive forest areas with specific applications to New York. Tables of appropriate regression equations and the tree and shrub species to which these equations can be applied are presented well as biomass estimates at the county, geographic unit, and state level...

Urban stormwater quality, event-mean concentrations, and estimates of stormwater pollutant loads, Dallas-Fort Worth area, Texas, 1992-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baldys, Stanley; Raines, T.H.; Mansfield, B.L.; Sandlin, J.T.

1998-01-01

Local regression equations were developed to estimate loads produced by individual storms. Mean annual loads were estimated by applying the storm-load equations for all runoff-producing storms in an average climatic year and summing individual storm loads to determine the annual load.

Estimation of Missing Water-Level Data for the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Petkewich, Matthew D.

2009-01-01

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of real-time water-level gaging stations, ground-elevation models, and water-surface elevation models designed to provide scientists, engineers, and water-resource managers with current (2000-2009) water-depth information for the entire freshwater portion of the greater Everglades. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for EDEN and their goal of providing quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. To increase the accuracy of the daily water-surface elevation model, water-level estimation equations were developed to fill missing data. To minimize the occurrences of no estimation of data due to missing data for an input station, a minimum of three linear regression equations were developed for each station using different input stations. Of the 726 water-level estimation equations developed to fill missing data at 239 stations, more than 60 percent of the equations have coefficients of determination greater than 0.90, and 92 percent have an coefficient of determination greater than 0.70.

Validity of bioelectrical impedance analysis in estimation of fat-free mass in colorectal cancer patients.

PubMed

Ræder, Hanna; Kværner, Ane Sørlie; Henriksen, Christine; Florholmen, Geir; Henriksen, Hege Berg; Bøhn, Siv Kjølsrud; Paur, Ingvild; Smeland, Sigbjørn; Blomhoff, Rune

2018-02-01

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an accessible and cheap method to measure fat-free mass (FFM). However, BIA estimates are subject to uncertainty in patient populations with altered body composition and hydration. The aim of the current study was to validate a whole-body and a segmental BIA device against dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, and to investigate the ability of different empiric equations for BIA to predict DXA FFM (FFM DXA ). Forty-three non-metastatic CRC patients (aged 50-80 years) were enrolled in this study. Whole-body and segmental BIA FFM estimates (FFM whole-bodyBIA , FFM segmentalBIA ) were calculated using 14 empiric equations, including the equations from the manufacturers, before comparison to FFM DXA estimates. Strong linear relationships were observed between FFM BIA and FFM DXA estimates for all equations (R 2  = 0.94-0.98 for both devices). However, there were large discrepancies in FFM estimates depending on the equations used with mean differences in the ranges -6.5-6.8 kg and -11.0-3.4 kg for whole-body and segmental BIA, respectively. For whole-body BIA, 77% of BIA derived FFM estimates were significantly different from FFM DXA , whereas for segmental BIA, 85% were significantly different. For whole-body BIA, the Schols* equation gave the highest agreement with FFM DXA with mean difference ±SD of -0.16 ± 1.94 kg (p = 0.582). The manufacturer's equation gave a small overestimation of FFM with 1.46 ± 2.16 kg (p < 0.001) with a tendency towards proportional bias (r = 0.28, p = 0.066). For segmental BIA, the Heitmann* equation gave the highest agreement with FFM DXA (0.17 ± 1.83 kg (p = 0.546)). Using the manufacturer's equation, no difference in FFM estimates was observed (-0.34 ± 2.06 kg (p = 0.292)), however, a clear proportional bias was detected (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). Both devices demonstrated acceptable ability to detect low FFM compared to DXA using the optimal equation. In a population of non-metastatic CRC patients, mostly consisting of Caucasian adults and with a wide range of body composition measures, both the whole-body BIA and segmental BIA device provide FFM estimates that are comparable to FFM DXA on a group level when the appropriate equations are applied. At the individual level (i.e. in clinical practice) BIA may be a valuable tool to identify patients with low FFM as part of a malnutrition diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Iohexol clearance is superior to creatinine-based renal function estimating equations in detecting short-term renal function decline in chronic heart failure

PubMed Central

Cvan Trobec, Katja; Kerec Kos, Mojca; von Haehling, Stephan; Anker, Stefan D.; Macdougall, Iain C.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Lainscak, Mitja

2015-01-01

Aim To compare the performance of iohexol plasma clearance and creatinine-based renal function estimating equations in monitoring longitudinal renal function changes in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, and to assess the effects of body composition on the equation performance. Methods Iohexol plasma clearance was measured in 43 CHF patients at baseline and after at least 6 months. Simultaneously, renal function was estimated with five creatinine-based equations (four- and six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, Cockcroft-Gault, Cockcroft-Gault adjusted for lean body mass, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation) and body composition was assessed using bioimpedance and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Results Over a median follow-up of 7.5 months (range 6-17 months), iohexol clearance significantly declined (52.8 vs 44.4 mL/[min ×1.73 m2], P = 0.001). This decline was significantly higher in patients receiving mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists at baseline (mean decline -22% of baseline value vs -3%, P = 0.037). Mean serum creatinine concentration did not change significantly during follow-up and no creatinine-based renal function estimating equation was able to detect the significant longitudinal decline of renal function determined by iohexol clearance. After accounting for body composition, the accuracy of the equations improved, but not their ability to detect renal function decline. Conclusions Renal function measured with iohexol plasma clearance showed relevant decline in CHF patients, particularly in those treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. None of the equations for renal function estimation was able to detect these changes. ClinicalTrials.gov registration number NCT01829880 PMID:26718759

The National Flood Frequency Program, version 3 : a computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Crouse, Michele Y.

2002-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, these equations have been developed on a Statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation. In 1994, the USGS released a computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which compiled all the USGS available regression equations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States and Puerto Rico. NFF was developed in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Since the initial release of NFF, the USGS has produced new equations for many areas of the Nation. A new version of NFF has been developed that incorporates these new equations and provides additional functionality and ease of use. NFF version 3 provides regression-equation estimates of flood-peak discharges for unregulated rural and urban watersheds, flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals. The Program also provides weighting techniques to improve estimates of flood-peak discharges for gaging stations and ungaged sites. The information provided by NFF should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report describes the flood-regionalization techniques used in NFF and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The NFF software and the documentation for the regression equations included in NFF are available at http://water.usgs.gov/software/nff.html.

Validation of prediction equations for estimating resting energy expenditure in obese Chinese children.

PubMed

Chan, Dorothy F Y; Li, Albert M; Chan, Michael H M; So, Hung Kwan; Chan, Iris H S; Yin, Jane A T; Lam, Christopher W K; Fok, Tai Fai; Nelson, Edmund A S

2009-01-01

(1) To examine the validity of existing prediction equations (PREE) for estimating resting energy expenditure (REE) in obese Chinese children, (2) to correlate the measured REE (MREE) with anthropometric and biochemical parameters and (3) to derive a new PREE for local use. Cross-sectional study. 100 obese children (71 boys) were studied. All subjects underwent physical examination and anthropometric measurement. Upper and central body fat distribution was signified by centrality and conicity index respectively, and REE was measured by indirect calorimetry. Fat free mass (FFM) were measured by DEXA scan. Thirteen existing prediction equations for estimating REE were compared with MREE among these obese children. Fasting blood for glucose, lipid profile and insulin were obtained. The overall, male and female median MREEs were 7.1 mJ/d (IR 6.2-8.4), 7.3 mJ/d (IR 6.3-9.7) and 6.9 mJ/d (IR 5.6-8.1) respectively. No sex difference was noted in MREE (p=0.203). Most of the equations except Schofield equation underestimated REE of our children. By multiple linear regression, MREE was positively correlated with FFM (p<0.0001), conicity index (p<0.001) and centrality index (p=0.001). A new equation for estimating REE for local use was derived as: REE=(17.4*logFFM)+(11.4*conicity index)-(2.4*centrality index)-31.3. The mean difference of new PREE-MREE was -0.011 mJ/d (SD 1.51) with an interclass correlation coefficient of 0.91. None of the existing prediction equations were accurate in their estimation of REE, when applied to obese Chinese children. A new prediction equation has been derived for local use.

Short distance modification of the quantum virial theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qin; Faizal, Mir; Zaz, Zaid

2017-07-01

In this letter, we will analyse the deformation of a semi-classical gravitational system from minimal measurable length scale. In the semi-classical approximation, the gravitational field will be analysed as a classical field, and the matter fields will be treated quantum mechanically. Thus, using this approximation, this system will be represented by a deformation of Schrödinger-Newton equation by the generalised uncertainty principle (GUP). We will analyse the effects of this GUP deformed Schrödinger-Newton equation on the behaviour of such a semi-classical gravitational system. As the quantum mechanical virial theorem can be obtained using the Schrödinger-Newton equation, a short distance modification of the Schrödinger-Newton equation will also result in a short distance modification of the quantum mechanical virial theorem.

Online Updating of Statistical Inference in the Big Data Setting.

PubMed

Schifano, Elizabeth D; Wu, Jing; Wang, Chun; Yan, Jun; Chen, Ming-Hui

2016-01-01

We present statistical methods for big data arising from online analytical processing, where large amounts of data arrive in streams and require fast analysis without storage/access to the historical data. In particular, we develop iterative estimating algorithms and statistical inferences for linear models and estimating equations that update as new data arrive. These algorithms are computationally efficient, minimally storage-intensive, and allow for possible rank deficiencies in the subset design matrices due to rare-event covariates. Within the linear model setting, the proposed online-updating framework leads to predictive residual tests that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the hypothesized model. We also propose a new online-updating estimator under the estimating equation setting. Theoretical properties of the goodness-of-fit tests and proposed estimators are examined in detail. In simulation studies and real data applications, our estimator compares favorably with competing approaches under the estimating equation setting.

Body composition estimation from selected slices: equations computed from a new semi-automatic thresholding method developed on whole-body CT scans

PubMed Central

Villa, Chiara; Brůžek, Jaroslav

2017-01-01

Background Estimating volumes and masses of total body components is important for the study and treatment monitoring of nutrition and nutrition-related disorders, cancer, joint replacement, energy-expenditure and exercise physiology. While several equations have been offered for estimating total body components from MRI slices, no reliable and tested method exists for CT scans. For the first time, body composition data was derived from 41 high-resolution whole-body CT scans. From these data, we defined equations for estimating volumes and masses of total body AT and LT from corresponding tissue areas measured in selected CT scan slices. Methods We present a new semi-automatic approach to defining the density cutoff between adipose tissue (AT) and lean tissue (LT) in such material. An intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to validate the method. The equations for estimating the whole-body composition volume and mass from areas measured in selected slices were modeled with ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions and support vector machine regression (SVMR). Results and Discussion The best predictive equation for total body AT volume was based on the AT area of a single slice located between the 4th and 5th lumbar vertebrae (L4-L5) and produced lower prediction errors (|PE| = 1.86 liters, %PE = 8.77) than previous equations also based on CT scans. The LT area of the mid-thigh provided the lowest prediction errors (|PE| = 2.52 liters, %PE = 7.08) for estimating whole-body LT volume. We also present equations to predict total body AT and LT masses from a slice located at L4-L5 that resulted in reduced error compared with the previously published equations based on CT scans. The multislice SVMR predictor gave the theoretical upper limit for prediction precision of volumes and cross-validated the results. PMID:28533960

Body composition estimation from selected slices: equations computed from a new semi-automatic thresholding method developed on whole-body CT scans.

PubMed

Lacoste Jeanson, Alizé; Dupej, Ján; Villa, Chiara; Brůžek, Jaroslav

2017-01-01

Estimating volumes and masses of total body components is important for the study and treatment monitoring of nutrition and nutrition-related disorders, cancer, joint replacement, energy-expenditure and exercise physiology. While several equations have been offered for estimating total body components from MRI slices, no reliable and tested method exists for CT scans. For the first time, body composition data was derived from 41 high-resolution whole-body CT scans. From these data, we defined equations for estimating volumes and masses of total body AT and LT from corresponding tissue areas measured in selected CT scan slices. We present a new semi-automatic approach to defining the density cutoff between adipose tissue (AT) and lean tissue (LT) in such material. An intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to validate the method. The equations for estimating the whole-body composition volume and mass from areas measured in selected slices were modeled with ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions and support vector machine regression (SVMR). The best predictive equation for total body AT volume was based on the AT area of a single slice located between the 4th and 5th lumbar vertebrae (L4-L5) and produced lower prediction errors (|PE| = 1.86 liters, %PE = 8.77) than previous equations also based on CT scans. The LT area of the mid-thigh provided the lowest prediction errors (|PE| = 2.52 liters, %PE = 7.08) for estimating whole-body LT volume. We also present equations to predict total body AT and LT masses from a slice located at L4-L5 that resulted in reduced error compared with the previously published equations based on CT scans. The multislice SVMR predictor gave the theoretical upper limit for prediction precision of volumes and cross-validated the results.

Estimation of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, with a section on Vermont regional skew regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; with a section by Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 145 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and the basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction for estimating the flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 36.0, 38.7, 42.4, 44.9, 47.3, 50.7, and 55.1 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm. To improve estimates of the flood discharges for given exceedance probabilities at streamgages in Vermont, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed. The new generalized skew for the region is a constant, 0.44. The mean square error of the generalized skew coefficient is 0.078. This report describes a technique for using results from the regression equations to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record. This report also describes a technique for using a drainage-area adjustment to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

A diagnostic model to estimate winds and small-scale drag from Mars Observer PMIRR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, J. R.

1993-01-01

Theoretical and modeling studies indicate that small-scale drag due to breaking gravity waves is likely to be of considerable importance for the circulation in the middle atmospheric region (approximately 40-100 km altitude) on Mars. Recent earth-based spectroscopic observations have provided evidence for the existence of circulation features, in particular, a warm winter polar region, associated with gravity wave drag. Since the Mars Observer PMIRR experiment will obtain temperature profiles extending from the surface up to about 80 km altitude, it will be extensively sampling middle atmospheric regions in which gravity wave drag may play a dominant role. Estimating the drag then becomes crucial to the estimation of the atmospheric winds from the PMIRR-observed temperatures. An interative diagnostic model based upon one previously developed and tested with earth satellite temperature data will be applied to the PMIRR measurements to produce estimates of the small-scale zonal drag and three-dimensional wind fields in the Mars middle atmosphere. This model is based on the primitive equations, and can allow for time dependence (the time tendencies used may be based upon those computed in a Fast Fourier Mapping procedure). The small-scale zonal drag is estimated as the residual in the zonal momentum equation; the horizontal winds having first been estimated from the meridional momentum equation and the continuity equation. The scheme estimates the vertical motions from the thermodynamic equation, and thus needs estimates of the diabatic heating based upon the observed temperatures. The latter will be generated using a radiative model. It is hoped that the diagnostic scheme will be able to produce good estimates of the zonal gravity wave drag in the Mars middle atmosphere, estimates that can then be used in other diagnostic or assimilation efforts, as well as more theoretical studies.

Novel application of topological indices. 2. Prediction of the threshold soot index for hydrocarbon fuels. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, M.P.; Rouvray, D.H.

The propensity of hydrocarbons to form soot in a diffusion flame is correlated here for the first time against various topological indices. Two of the indices, the hydrogen deficiency index, and the Balaban distance-sum connectivity index were found to be especially valuable for correlational purposes. For a total of 98 hydrocarbon fuel moelcules, of differing types, regression analyses yielded good correlations between the threshold soot indices (TSIs) for diffusion flames and these two indices. An equation that can be used to estimate TSI values in fuel molecules is presented.

Novel applications of topological indices. 2. Prediction of the threshold soot index for hydrocarbon fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, M.P.; Rouvray, D.H.

The propensity of hydrocarbons to form soot in a diffusion flame is correlated here for the first time against various topological indices. Two of the indices, the hydrogen deficiency index and the Balaban distance sum connectivity index, were found to be especially valuable for correlational purposes. For the total of 98 hydrocarbon fuel molecules of differing types, regression analyses yielded good correlations between the threshold soot indices (TSIs) for diffusion flames and these two indices. An equation which can be used to estimate TSI values in fuel molecules is presented.

Quantitative Estimation of the Electronic Effects of Substituents in Five-membered Nitrogen-containing Aromatic Heterocycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopyrev, Valentin A.; Larina, Ludmila I.; Vakul'skaya, Tamara I.

1986-05-01

Data, characterising quantitatively the effect of substituents on the reactivity and physicochemical properties of five-membered nitrogen-containing heterocyclic compounds, which have accumulated in the literature during the last 15 years, are compiled in the review and discussed. The possibility of applying the Hammett and Jaffe equations in the determination of the direction of transmission of the electronic effects of substituents is analysed and the likely usefulness of this approach to the study of electronic influences by taking into account separately the inductive and resonance constants is demonstrated. The bibliography includes 215 references.

A Longitudinal Study on Human Outdoor Decomposition in Central Texas.

PubMed

Suckling, Joanna K; Spradley, M Katherine; Godde, Kanya

2016-01-01

The development of a methodology that estimates the postmortem interval (PMI) from stages of decomposition is a goal for which forensic practitioners strive. A proposed equation (Megyesi et al. 2005) that utilizes total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree days (ADD) was tested using longitudinal data collected from human remains donated to the Forensic Anthropology Research Facility (FARF) at Texas State University-San Marcos. Exact binomial tests examined the rate of the equation to successfully predict ADD. Statistically significant differences were found between ADD estimated by the equation and the observed value for decomposition stage. Differences remained significant after carnivore scavenged donations were removed from analysis. Low success rates for the equation to predict ADD from TBS and the wide standard errors demonstrate the need to re-evaluate the use of this equation and methodology for PMI estimation in different environments; rather, multivariate methods and equations should be derived that are environmentally specific. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Solutions for the diurnally forced advection-diffusion equation to estimate bulk fluid velocity and diffusivity in streambeds from temperature time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, C.; Tonina, D.; Gariglio, F. P.; Applebee, R.

2012-12-01

Differences in the diurnal variations of temperature at different depths in streambed sediments are commonly used for estimating vertical fluxes of water in the streambed. We applied spatial and temporal rescaling of the advection-diffusion equation to derive two new relationships that greatly extend the kinds of information that can be derived from streambed temperature measurements. The first equation provides a direct estimate of the Peclet number from the amplitude decay and phase delay information. The analytical equation is explicit (e.g. no numerical root-finding is necessary), and invertable. The thermal front velocity can be estimated from the Peclet number when the thermal diffusivity is known. The second equation allows for an independent estimate of the thermal diffusivity directly from the amplitude decay and phase delay information. Several improvements are available with the new information. The first equation uses a ratio of the amplitude decay and phase delay information; thus Peclet number calculations are independent of depth. The explicit form also makes it somewhat faster and easier to calculate estimates from a large number of sensors or multiple positions along one sensor. Where current practice requires a priori estimation of streambed thermal diffusivity, the new approach allows an independent calculation, improving precision of estimates. Furthermore, when many measurements are made over space and time, expectations of the spatial correlation and temporal invariance of thermal diffusivity are valuable for validation of measurements. Finally, the closed-form explicit solution allows for direct calculation of propagation of uncertainties in error measurements and parameter estimates, providing insight about error expectations for sensors placed at different depths in different environments as a function of surface temperature variation amplitudes. The improvements are expected to increase the utility of temperature measurement methods for studying groundwater-surface water interactions across space and time scales. We discuss the theoretical implications of the new solutions supported by examples with data for illustration and validation.

Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.; Salehi, Habib

1992-01-01

Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow were analyzed for 25 pairs of streamflow-gaging stations in Michigan. Stations were paired by randomly choosing a station operated in 1989 at which 10 or more years of continuous flow data had been collected and at which flow is virtually unregulated; a nearby station was chosen where flow characteristics are similar. Streamflow data from the 25 randomly selected stations were used as the response variables; streamflow data at the nearby stations were used to generate a set of explanatory variables. Ordinary-least squares regression (OLSR) equations, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) equations, and transfer function-noise (TFN) equations were developed to estimate the log transform of flow for the 25 randomly selected stations. The precision of each type of equation was evaluated on the basis of the standard deviation of the estimation errors. OLSR equations produce one set of estimation errors; ARIMA and TFN models each produce l sets of estimation errors corresponding to the forecast lead. The lead-l forecast is the estimate of flow l days ahead of the most recent streamflow used as a response variable in the estimation. In this analysis, the standard deviation of lead l ARIMA and TFN forecast errors were generally lower than the standard deviation of OLSR errors for l < 2 days and l < 9 days, respectively. Composite estimates were computed as a weighted average of forecasts based on TFN equations and backcasts (forecasts of the reverse-ordered series) based on ARIMA equations. The standard deviation of composite errors varied throughout the length of the estimation interval and generally was at maximum near the center of the interval. For comparison with OLSR errors, the mean standard deviation of composite errors were computed for intervals of length 1 to 40 days. The mean standard deviation of length-l composite errors were generally less than the standard deviation of the OLSR errors for l < 32 days. In addition, the composite estimates ensure a gradual transition between periods of estimated and measured flows. Model performance among stations of differing model error magnitudes were compared by computing ratios of the mean standard deviation of the length l composite errors to the standard deviation of OLSR errors. The mean error ratio for the set of 25 selected stations was less than 1 for intervals l < 32 days. Considering the frequency characteristics of the length of intervals of estimated record in Michigan, the effective mean error ratio for intervals < 30 days was 0.52. Thus, for intervals of estimation of 1 month or less, the error of the composite estimate is substantially lower than error of the OLSR estimate.

Evaluation of various equations for estimating renal function in elderly Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Guo, Mei; Niu, Jian-Ying; Ye, Xian-Wu; Han, Xiao-Jie; Zha, Ying; Hong, Yang; Fang, Hong; Gu, Yong

2017-01-01

Background The clinical assessment of kidney function based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in older patients remains controversial. This study evaluated the concordance and feasibility of using various creatinine-based equations for estimating GFR in elderly Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted in 21,723 older diabetic patients (≥60 years) based on electronic health records (EHR) for Minhang District, Shanghai, China. The concordance of chronic kidney disease (CKD) classification among different creatinine-based equations was assessed based on Kappa values, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) statistics, and the eGFR agreement between the equations was tested using Bland–Altman plots. The GFR was estimated using the Cockcroft–Gault (CG), Berlin Initiative Study 1 (BIS1), simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), MDRD modified for Chinese populations (mMDRD), chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI), CKD-EPI in Asians (CKD-EPI-Asia), and Ruijin equations. Results Overall, the proportion of CKD stages 3–5 (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was calculated as 28.9%, 39.1%, 11.8%, 8.4%, 14.3%, 11.5%, and 12.7% by the eGFRCG, eGFRBIS1, eGFRMDRD, eGFRmMDRD, eGFRCKD-EPI, eGFRCKD-EPI-Asia, and eGFRRuijin equations, respectively. The concordance of albuminuria and decreased eGFR based on the different equations was poor by both the Kappa (<0.2) and ICC (<0.4) statistics. The CKD-EPI-Asia equation resulted in excellent concordance with the CKD-EPI (ICC =0.931), MDRD (ICC =0.963), mMDRD (ICC =0.892), and Ruijin (ICC =0.956) equations for the classification of CKD stages, whereas the BIS1 equation exhibited good concordance with the CG equation (ICC =0.809). In addition, significant differences were observed for CKD stage 1 among all these equations. Conclusion Accurate GFR values are difficult to estimate using creatinine-based equations in older diabetic patients. Kidney function is complex, and the staff need to be aware of the individualized consideration of other risk factors or markers of reduced renal function in clinical practice. PMID:29070944

Performance of three glomerular filtration rate estimation equations in a population of sub-Saharan Africans with Type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Agoons, D D; Balti, E V; Kaze, F F; Azabji-Kenfack, M; Ashuntantang, G; Kengne, A P; Sobngwi, E; Mbanya, J C

2016-09-01

We evaluated the performance of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Cockcroft-Gault (CG) equations against creatinine clearance (CrCl) to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in 51 patients with Type 2 diabetes. The CrCl value was obtained from the average of two consecutive 24-h urine samples. Results were adjusted for body surface area using the Dubois formula. Serum creatinine was measured using the kinetic Jaffe method and was calibrated to standardized levels. Bland-Altman analysis and kappa statistic were used to examine agreement between measured and estimated GFR. Estimates of GFR from the CrCl, MDRD, CKD-EPI and CG equations were similar (overall P = 0.298), and MDRD (r = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.36-0.74), CKD-EPI (r = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.33-0.72) and CG (r = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.39-0.75) showed modest correlation with CrCl (all P < 0.001). Bias was -0.3 for MDRD, 1.7 for CKD-EPI and -5.4 for CG. All three equations showed fair-to-moderate agreement with CrCl (kappa: 0.38-0.51). The c-statistic for all three equations ranged between 0.75 and 0.77 with no significant difference (P = 0.639 for c-statistic comparison). The MDRD equation seems to have a modest advantage over CKD-EPI and CG in estimating GFR and detecting impaired renal function in sub-Saharan African patients with Type 2 diabetes. The overall relatively modest correlation with CrCl, however, suggests the need for context-specific estimators of GFR or context adaptation of existing estimators. © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Novel Filtration Markers for GFR Estimation

PubMed Central

Inker, Lesley A.; Coresh, Josef; Levey, Andrew S.; Eckfeldt, John H.

2017-01-01

Creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate estimation (eGFRcr) has been improved and refined since the 1970s through both the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation in 1999 and the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation in 2009, with current clinical practice dependent primarily on eGFR for accurate assessment of GFR. However, researchers and clinicians have recognized limitations of relying on creatinine as the only filtration marker, which can lead to inaccurate GFR estimates in certain populations due to the influence of non-GFR determinants of serum or plasma creatinine. Therefore, recent literature has proposed incorporation of multiple serum or plasma filtration markers into GFR estimation to improve precision and accuracy and decrease the impact of non-GFR determinants for any individual biomarker. To this end, the CKD-EPI combined creatinine-cystatin C equation (eGFRcr-cys) was developed in 2012 and demonstrated superior accuracy to equations relying on creatinine or cystatin C alone (eGFRcr or eGFRcys). Now, the focus has broadened to include additional novel filtration markers to further refine and improve GFR estimation. Beta-2-microglobulin (B2M) and beta-trace-protein (BTP) are two filtration markers with established assays that have been proposed as candidates for improving both GFR estimation and risk prediction. GFR estimating equations based on B2M and BTP have been developed and validated, with the CKD-EPI combined BTP-B2M equation (eGFRBTP-B2M) demonstrating similar performance to eGFR and eGFR. Additionally, several studies have demonstrated that both B2M and BTP are associated with outcomes in CKD patients, including cardiovascular events, ESRD and mortality. This review will primarily focus on these two biomarkers, and will highlight efforts to identify additional candidate biomarkers through metabolomics-based approaches. PMID:29333147

Estimation of fat-free mass in Asian neonates using bioelectrical impedance analysis

PubMed Central

Tint, Mya-Thway; Ward, Leigh C; Soh, Shu E; Aris, Izzuddin M; Chinnadurai, Amutha; Saw, Seang Mei; Gluckman, Peter D; Godfrey, Keith M; Chong, Yap-Seng; Kramer, Michael S; Yap, Fabian; Lingwood, Barbara; Lee, Yung Seng

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop and validate a prediction equation of fat-free mass (FFM) based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and anthropometry using air displacement plethysmography (ADP) as a reference in Asian neonates and to test the applicability of the prediction equations in independent Western cohort. A total of 173 neonates at birth and 140 at week-2 of age were included. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction equations in a two-third randomly selected subset and validated on the remaining one-third subset at each time point and in an independent Queensland cohort. FFM measured by ADP was the dependent variable and anthropometric measures, sex and impedance quotient (L2/R50) were independent variables in the model. Accuracy of prediction equations were assessed using intra-class correlation and Bland-Altman analyses. L2/R50 was the significant predictor of FFM at week-2 but not at birth. Compared to the model using weight, sex and length, including L2/R50 slightly improved the prediction with a bias of 0.01kg with 2SD limits of agreement (LOA) (0.18, −0.20). Prediction explained 88.9% of variation but not beyond that of anthropometry. Applying these equations to Queensland cohort provided similar performance at the appropriate age. However, when the Queensland equations were applied to our cohort, the bias increased slightly but with similar LOA. BIA appears to have limited use in predicting FFM in the first few weeks of life compared to simple anthropometry in Asian populations. There is a need for population and age appropriate FFM prediction equations. PMID:26856420

Estimation of fat-free mass in Asian neonates using bioelectrical impedance analysis.

PubMed

Tint, Mya-Thway; Ward, Leigh C; Soh, Shu E; Aris, Izzuddin M; Chinnadurai, Amutha; Saw, Seang Mei; Gluckman, Peter D; Godfrey, Keith M; Chong, Yap-Seng; Kramer, Michael S; Yap, Fabian; Lingwood, Barbara; Lee, Yung Seng

2016-03-28

The aims of this study were to develop and validate a prediction equation of fat-free mass (FFM) based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and anthropometry using air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) as a reference in Asian neonates and to test the applicability of the prediction equations in an independent Western cohort. A total of 173 neonates at birth and 140 at two weeks of age were included. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction equations in a two-third randomly selected subset and validated on the remaining one-third subset at each time point and in an independent Queensland cohort. FFM measured by ADP was the dependent variable, and anthropometric measures, sex and impedance quotient (L2/R50) were independent variables in the model. Accuracy of prediction equations was assessed using intra-class correlation and Bland-Altman analyses. L2/R50 was the significant predictor of FFM at week two but not at birth. Compared with the model using weight, sex and length, including L2/R50 slightly improved the prediction with a bias of 0·01 kg with 2 sd limits of agreement (LOA) (0·18, -0·20). Prediction explained 88·9 % of variation but not beyond that of anthropometry. Applying these equations to the Queensland cohort provided similar performance at the appropriate age. However, when the Queensland equations were applied to our cohort, the bias increased slightly but with similar LOA. BIA appears to have limited use in predicting FFM in the first few weeks of life compared with simple anthropometry in Asian populations. There is a need for population- and age-appropriate FFM prediction equations.

Estimation of peak-discharge frequency of urban streams in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Ruhl, Kevin J.; Moore, Brian L.; Rose, Martin F.

1997-01-01

An investigation of flood-hydrograph characteristics for streams in urban Jefferson County, Kentucky, was made to obtain hydrologic information needed for waterresources management. Equations for estimating peak-discharge frequencies for ungaged streams in the county were developed by combining (1) long-term annual peakdischarge data and rainfall-runoff data collected from 1991 to 1995 in 13 urban basins and (2) long-term annual peak-discharge data in four rural basins located in hydrologically similar areas of neighboring counties. The basins ranged in size from 1.36 to 64.0 square miles. The U.S. Geological Survey Rainfall- Runoff Model (RRM) was calibrated for each of the urban basins. The calibrated models were used with long-term, historical rainfall and pan-evaporation data to simulate 79 years of annual peak-discharge data. Peak-discharge frequencies were estimated by fitting the logarithms of the annual peak discharges to a Pearson-Type III frequency distribution. The simulated peak-discharge frequencies were adjusted for improved reliability by application of bias-correction factors derived from peakdischarge frequencies based on local, observed annual peak discharges. The three-parameter and the preferred seven-parameter nationwide urban-peak-discharge regression equations previously developed by USGS investigators provided biased (high) estimates for the urban basins studied. Generalized-least-square regression procedures were used to relate peakdischarge frequency to selected basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency by adjusting peak-dischargefrequency estimates made by use of the threeparameter nationwide urban regression equations. The regression equations are presented in equivalent forms as functions of contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin development factor, which is an index for measuring the efficiency of the basin drainage system. Estimates of peak discharges for streams in the county can be made for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals by use of the regression equations. The average standard errors of prediction of the regression equations ranges from ? 34 to ? 45 percent. The regression equations are applicable to ungaged streams in the county having a specific range of basin characteristics.

Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, K. A.

1988-01-01

A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.

Estimation of time- and state-dependent delays and other parameters in functional differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, K. A.

1990-01-01

A parameter estimation algorithm is developed which can be used to estimate unknown time- or state-dependent delays and other parameters (e.g., initial condition) appearing within a nonlinear nonautonomous functional differential equation. The original infinite dimensional differential equation is approximated using linear splines, which are allowed to move with the variable delay. The variable delays are approximated using linear splines as well. The approximation scheme produces a system of ordinary differential equations with nice computational properties. The unknown parameters are estimated within the approximating systems by minimizing a least-squares fit-to-data criterion. Convergence theorems are proved for time-dependent delays and state-dependent delays within two classes, which say essentially that fitting the data by using approximations will, in the limit, provide a fit to the data using the original system. Numerical test examples are presented which illustrate the method for all types of delay.

Nondimensional Parameters and Equations for Nonlinear and Bifurcation Analyses of Thin Anisotropic Quasi-Shallow Shells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Michael P.

2010-01-01

A comprehensive development of nondimensional parameters and equations for nonlinear and bifurcations analyses of quasi-shallow shells, based on the Donnell-Mushtari-Vlasov theory for thin anisotropic shells, is presented. A complete set of field equations for geometrically imperfect shells is presented in terms general of lines-of-curvature coordinates. A systematic nondimensionalization of these equations is developed, several new nondimensional parameters are defined, and a comprehensive stress-function formulation is presented that includes variational principles for equilibrium and compatibility. Bifurcation analysis is applied to the nondimensional nonlinear field equations and a comprehensive set of bifurcation equations are presented. An extensive collection of tables and figures are presented that show the effects of lamina material properties and stacking sequence on the nondimensional parameters.

Investigation into calculating tree biomass and carbon in the FIADB using a biomass expansion factor approach

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; Mark Hansen; James E. Smith; Patrick D. Miles

2009-01-01

The official U.S. forest carbon inventories (U.S. EPA 2008) have relied on tree biomass estimates that utilize diameter based prediction equations from Jenkins and others (2003), coupled with U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) sample tree measurements and forest area estimates. However, these biomass prediction equations are not the equations used...

Reverberation Modelling Using a Parabolic Equation Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

the limits of their applicability. Results: Transmission loss estimates produced by the PECan parabolic equation acoustic model were used in...environments is possible when used in concert with a parabolic equation passive acoustic model . Future plans: The authors of this report recommend further...technique using other types of acoustic models should be undertaken. Furthermore, as the current method when applied as-is results in estimates that reflect

Verification of the Jenkins and FIA sapling biomass equations for hardwood species in Maine

Treesearch

Andrew S. Nelson; Aaron R. Weiskittel; Robert G. Wagner; Michael R. Saunders

2012-01-01

In 2009, the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA) updated its biomass estimation protocols by switching to the component ratio method to estimate biomass of medium and large trees. Additionally, FIA switched from using regional equations to the current FIA aboveground sapling biomass equations that predict woody sapling (2.5 to 12.4 cm d.b.h.) biomass using the...

Calibration of d.b.h.-height equations for southern hardwoods

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; A. Gordon Holley; Douglas J. Stevenson

2006-01-01

Data from southern hardwood stands in East Texas were used to estimate parameters for d.b.h.-height equations. Mixed model estimation methods were used, so that the stand from which a tree was sampled was considered a random effect. This makes it possible to calibrate these equations using data collected in a local stand of interest, by using d.b.h. and total height...

Iothalamate versus estimated GFR in a Hispanic-dominant pediatric renal transplant population.

PubMed

Papez, Karen E; Barletta, Gina-Marie; Hsieh, Stephanie; Joseph, Mark; Morgenstern, Bruce Z

2013-12-01

Accurate knowledge of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential to the practice of nephrology. Routine surveillance of GFR is most commonly executed using estimated GFR (eGFR) calculations, most often from serum creatinine measurements. However, cystatin C-based equations have demonstrated earlier sensitivity to decline in renal function. The literature regarding eGFR from cystatin C has few references that include transplant recipients. Additionally, for most of the published eGFR equations, patients of Hispanic ethnicity have not been enrolled in sufficient numbers. The applicability of several eGFR equations to the pediatric kidney transplant population at our center were compared in the context of determining whether Hispanic ethnicity was associated with equation performance. Updated Schwartz, CKiD, and Zappitelli eGFR estimation equations demonstrated the highest correlations. The authors recommend further prospective investigations to validate and identify factors contributing to these findings.

Decreased GFR estimated by MDRD or Cockcroft-Gault equation predicts incident CVD: the strong heart study.

PubMed

Shara, Nawar M; Resnick, Helaine E; Lu, Li; Xu, Jiaqiong; Vupputuri, Suma; Howard, Barbara V; Umans, Jason G

2009-01-01

Kidney function, expressed as glomerular filtration rate (GFR), is commonly estimated from serum creatinine (Scr) and, when decreased, may serve as a nonclassical risk factor for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). The ability of estimated GFR (eGFR) to predict CVD events during 5-10 years of follow-up is assessed using data from the Strong Heart Study (SHS), a large cohort with a high prevalence of diabetes. eGFRs were calculated with the abbreviated Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (MDRD) and the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) equations. These estimates were compared in participants with normal and abnormal Scr. The association between eGFR and incident CVD was assessed. More subjects were labeled as having low eGFR (<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) by the MDRD or CG equation, than by Scr alone. When Scr was in the normal range, both equations labeled similar numbers of participants as having low eGFRs, although concordance between the equations was poor. However, when Scr was elevated, the MDRD equation labeled more subjects as having low eGFR. Persons with low eGFR had increased risk of CVD. The MDRD and CG equations labeled more participants as having decreased GFR than did Scr alone. Decreased eGFR was predictive of CVD in this American Indian population with a high prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Evaluating the generalizability of GEP models for estimating reference evapotranspiration in distant humid and arid locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiafar, Hamed; Babazadeh, Hosssien; Marti, Pau; Kisi, Ozgur; Landeras, Gorka; Karimi, Sepideh; Shiri, Jalal

2017-10-01

Evapotranspiration estimation is of crucial importance in arid and hyper-arid regions, which suffer from water shortage, increasing dryness and heat. A modeling study is reported here to cross-station assessment between hyper-arid and humid conditions. The derived equations estimate ET0 values based on temperature-, radiation-, and mass transfer-based configurations. Using data from two meteorological stations in a hyper-arid region of Iran and two meteorological stations in a humid region of Spain, different local and cross-station approaches are applied for developing and validating the derived equations. The comparison of the gene expression programming (GEP)-based-derived equations with corresponding empirical-semi empirical ET0 estimation equations reveals the superiority of new formulas in comparison with the corresponding empirical equations. Therefore, the derived models can be successfully applied in these hyper-arid and humid regions as well as similar climatic contexts especially in data-lack situations. The results also show that when relying on proper input configurations, cross-station might be a promising alternative for locally trained models for the stations with data scarcity.

Estimation of premorbid general fluid intelligence using traditional Chinese reading performance in Taiwanese samples.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Jen; Ho, Meng-Yang; Chen, Kwan-Ju; Hsu, Chia-Fen; Ryu, Shan-Jin

2009-08-01

The aims of the present study were to (i) investigate if traditional Chinese word reading ability can be used for estimating premorbid general intelligence; and (ii) to provide multiple regression equations for estimating premorbid performance on Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices (RSPM), using age, years of education and Chinese Graded Word Reading Test (CGWRT) scores as predictor variables. Four hundred and twenty-six healthy volunteers (201 male, 225 female), aged 16-93 years (mean +/- SD, 41.92 +/- 18.19 years) undertook the tests individually under supervised conditions. Seventy percent of subjects were randomly allocated to the derivation group (n = 296), and the rest to the validation group (n = 130). RSPM score was positively correlated with CGWRT score and years of education. RSPM and CGWRT scores and years of education were also inversely correlated with age, but the declining trend for RSPM performance against age was steeper than that for CGWRT performance. Separate multiple regression equations were derived for estimating RSPM scores using different combinations of age, years of education, and CGWRT score for both groups. The multiple regression coefficient of each equation ranged from 0.71 to 0.80 with the standard error of estimate between 7 and 8 RSPM points. When fitting the data of one group to the equations derived from its counterpart group, the cross-validation multiple regression coefficients ranged from 0.71 to 0.79. There were no significant differences in the 'predicted-obtained' RSPM discrepancies between any equations. The regression equations derived in the present study may provide a basis for estimating premorbid RSPM performance.

Estimating volume, biomass, and potential emissions of hand-piled fuels

Treesearch

Clinton S. Wright; Cameron S. Balog; Jeffrey W. Kelly

2009-01-01

Dimensions, volume, and biomass were measured for 121 hand-constructed piles composed primarily of coniferous (n = 63) and shrub/hardwood (n = 58) material at sites in Washington and California. Equations using pile dimensions, shape, and type allow users to accurately estimate the biomass of hand piles. Equations for estimating true pile volume from simple geometric...

Reliability of Summed Item Scores Using Structural Equation Modeling: An Alternative to Coefficient Alpha

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Samuel B.; Yang, Yanyun

2009-01-01

A method is presented for estimating reliability using structural equation modeling (SEM) that allows for nonlinearity between factors and item scores. Assuming the focus is on consistency of summed item scores, this method for estimating reliability is preferred to those based on linear SEM models and to the most commonly reported estimate of…

A Comparison of Height-Accumulation and Volume-Equation Methods for Estimating Tree and Stand Volumes

Treesearch

R.B. Ferguson; V. Clark Baldwin

1995-01-01

Estimating tree and stand volume in mature plantations is time consuming, involving much manpower and equipment; however, several sampling and volume-prediction techniques are available. This study showed that a well-constructed, volume-equation method yields estimates comparable to those of the often more time-consuming, height-accumulation method, even though the...

An estimator for the relative entropy rate of path measures for stochastic differential equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Opper, Manfred, E-mail: manfred.opper@tu-berlin.de

2017-02-01

We address the problem of estimating the relative entropy rate (RER) for two stochastic processes described by stochastic differential equations. For the case where the drift of one process is known analytically, but one has only observations from the second process, we use a variational bound on the RER to construct an estimator.

Prognostic assessment of estimated glomerular filtration rate by the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation in comparison with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation.

PubMed

Skali, Hicham; Uno, Hajime; Levey, Andrew S; Inker, Lesley A; Pfeffer, Marc A; Solomon, Scott D

2011-09-01

Systematic reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation is recommended for detection of chronic kidney disease and prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation is a newly developed and validated formula for eGFR that is more accurate at normal or near-normal eGFR. We aimed to assess the incremental prognostic accuracy of eGFR(CKD-EPI) versus eGFR(MDRD) in subjects at increased risk for CV disease. We performed a post hoc analysis of the VALIANT trial that enrolled 14,527 patients with acute myocardial infarction with signs and symptoms of heart failure and/or left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The eGFR(MDRD) and eGFR(CKD-EPI) were computed using age, gender, race, and baseline creatinine level. Patients were categorized according to their eGFR using each equation. To assess the incremental prognostic value of eGFR(CKD-EPI), the net reclassification improvement was calculated for the composite end point of CV death, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure, or stroke. Twenty-four percent of the subjects were reclassified into a different eGFR category using eGFR(CKD-EPI). The composite end point occurred in 33% of the subjects in this cohort. Based on eGFR(CKD-EPI), subjects reclassified into a higher eGFR experienced fewer events than those reclassified into a lower eGFR (21% vs 43%). In unadjusted analyses, the composite end point risk in subjects with eGFR between 75 and 90 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) was comparable with the referent group (eGFR between 90 and 105) using eGFR(MDRD) (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% CI 0.9-1.2) but was significantly higher using eGFR(CKD-EPI) (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.4). The net reclassification improvement for eGFR(CKD-EPI) over eGFR(MDRD) was 8.7%. The CKD-EPI equation provides more accurate risk stratification than the MDRD Study equation in patients at high risk for CV disease, including identification of increased risk at mildly decreased eGFR. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Discrete-time state estimation for stochastic polynomial systems over polynomial observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Gonzalez, M.; Basin, M.; Stepanov, O.

2018-07-01

This paper presents a solution to the mean-square state estimation problem for stochastic nonlinear polynomial systems over polynomial observations confused with additive white Gaussian noises. The solution is given in two steps: (a) computing the time-update equations and (b) computing the measurement-update equations for the state estimate and error covariance matrix. A closed form of this filter is obtained by expressing conditional expectations of polynomial terms as functions of the state estimate and error covariance. As a particular case, the mean-square filtering equations are derived for a third-degree polynomial system with second-degree polynomial measurements. Numerical simulations show effectiveness of the proposed filter compared to the extended Kalman filter.

Network Reconstruction From High-Dimensional Ordinary Differential Equations.

PubMed

Chen, Shizhe; Shojaie, Ali; Witten, Daniela M

2017-01-01

We consider the task of learning a dynamical system from high-dimensional time-course data. For instance, we might wish to estimate a gene regulatory network from gene expression data measured at discrete time points. We model the dynamical system nonparametrically as a system of additive ordinary differential equations. Most existing methods for parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations estimate the derivatives from noisy observations. This is known to be challenging and inefficient. We propose a novel approach that does not involve derivative estimation. We show that the proposed method can consistently recover the true network structure even in high dimensions, and we demonstrate empirical improvement over competing approaches. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Finite-sample corrected generalized estimating equation of population average treatment effects in stepped wedge cluster randomized trials.

PubMed

Scott, JoAnna M; deCamp, Allan; Juraska, Michal; Fay, Michael P; Gilbert, Peter B

2017-04-01

Stepped wedge designs are increasingly commonplace and advantageous for cluster randomized trials when it is both unethical to assign placebo, and it is logistically difficult to allocate an intervention simultaneously to many clusters. We study marginal mean models fit with generalized estimating equations for assessing treatment effectiveness in stepped wedge cluster randomized trials. This approach has advantages over the more commonly used mixed models that (1) the population-average parameters have an important interpretation for public health applications and (2) they avoid untestable assumptions on latent variable distributions and avoid parametric assumptions about error distributions, therefore, providing more robust evidence on treatment effects. However, cluster randomized trials typically have a small number of clusters, rendering the standard generalized estimating equation sandwich variance estimator biased and highly variable and hence yielding incorrect inferences. We study the usual asymptotic generalized estimating equation inferences (i.e., using sandwich variance estimators and asymptotic normality) and four small-sample corrections to generalized estimating equation for stepped wedge cluster randomized trials and for parallel cluster randomized trials as a comparison. We show by simulation that the small-sample corrections provide improvement, with one correction appearing to provide at least nominal coverage even with only 10 clusters per group. These results demonstrate the viability of the marginal mean approach for both stepped wedge and parallel cluster randomized trials. We also study the comparative performance of the corrected methods for stepped wedge and parallel designs, and describe how the methods can accommodate interval censoring of individual failure times and incorporate semiparametric efficient estimators.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of multiple potentially influential low outliers. Streamgage basin characteristics were determined using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors as statistical significance, coefficient of determination, Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the explanatory variable. Application of generalized least squares regression techniques produced final predictive (regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3, Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure of the average accuracy of the regression equations when predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from 25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.

Hydrology and trout populations of cold-water rivers of Michigan and Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hendrickson, G.E.; Knutilla, R.L.

1974-01-01

Statistical multiple-regression analyses showed significant relationships between trout populations and hydrologic parameters. Parameters showing the higher levels of significance were temperature, hardness of water, percentage of gravel bottom, percentage of bottom vegetation, variability of streamflow, and discharge per unit drainage area. Trout populations increase with lower levels of annual maximum water temperatures, with increase in water hardness, and with increase in percentage of gravel and bottom vegetation. Trout populations also increase with decrease in variability of streamflow, and with increase in discharge per unit drainage area. Most hydrologic parameters were significant when evaluated collectively, but no parameter, by itself, showed a high degree of correlation with trout populations in regression analyses that included all the streams sampled. Regression analyses of stream segments that were restricted to certain limits of hardness, temperature, or percentage of gravel bottom showed improvements in correlation. Analyses of trout populations, in pounds per acre and pounds per mile and hydrologic parameters resulted in regression equations from which trout populations could be estimated with standard errors of 89 and 84 per cent, respectively.

Relationship Between Breastfeeding and Early Childhood Obesity: Results of a Prospective Longitudinal Study from Birth to 4 Years.

PubMed

Wallby, Thomas; Lagerberg, Dagmar; Magnusson, Margaretha

To study a potential link between breastfeeding in infancy and obesity at age 4. A total of 30,508 infants born during 2002-2007 from the databases of the Preventive Child Health Services in two Swedish counties and from national registers were studied. The outcome variable was obesity at age 4. Analyses were conducted by logistic regression models using the methodology of generalized estimating equations. Analyses were adjusted for child sex and maternal anthropometric and sociodemographic variables. In unadjusted analyses, any breastfeeding up to 9 months was linked to successively decreasing odds ratios (ORs) for obesity at age 4 (ORs 0.78-0.33), however, not significantly for 1 week and 2 months of breastfeeding. In adjusted analyses, the same pattern remained statistically significant for breastfeeding for 4 (OR 0.51), 6 (OR 0.55), and 9 (OR 0.47) months. Child sex, maternal education, maternal body mass index, and maternal smoking additionally influenced child obesity. Breastfeeding duration for at least 4 months may contribute independently to a reduced risk for childhood obesity at 4 years.

Are traditional body fat equations and anthropometry valid to estimate body fat in children and adolescents living with HIV?

PubMed

Lima, Luiz Rodrigo Augustemak de; Martins, Priscila Custódio; Junior, Carlos Alencar Souza Alves; Castro, João Antônio Chula de; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Petroski, Edio Luiz

The aim of this study was to assess the validity of traditional anthropometric equations and to develop predictive equations of total body and trunk fat for children and adolescents living with HIV based on anthropometric measurements. Forty-eight children and adolescents of both sexes (24 boys) aged 7-17 years, living in Santa Catarina, Brazil, participated in the study. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used as the reference method to evaluate total body and trunk fat. Height, body weight, circumferences and triceps, subscapular, abdominal and calf skinfolds were measured. The traditional equations of Lohman and Slaughter were used to estimate body fat. Multiple regression models were fitted to predict total body fat (Model 1) and trunk fat (Model 2) using a backward selection procedure. Model 1 had an R 2 =0.85 and a standard error of the estimate of 1.43. Model 2 had an R 2 =0.80 and standard error of the estimate=0.49. The traditional equations of Lohman and Slaughter showed poor performance in estimating body fat in children and adolescents living with HIV. The prediction models using anthropometry provided reliable estimates and can be used by clinicians and healthcare professionals to monitor total body and trunk fat in children and adolescents living with HIV. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Darcy Permeability of Hollow Fiber Bundles Used in Blood Oxygenation Devices

PubMed Central

Pacella, Heather E.; Eash, Heidi J.; Federspiel, William J.

2011-01-01

Many industrial and biomedical devices (e.g. blood oxygenators and artificial lungs) use bundles of hollow fiber membranes for separation processes. Analyses of flow and mass transport within the shell-side of the fiber bundles most often model the bundle for simplicity as a packed bed or porous media, using a Darcy permeability coefficient estimated from the Blake-Kozeny equation to account for viscous drag from the fibers. In this study, we developed a simple method for measuring the Darcy permeability of hollow fiber membrane bundles and evaluated how well the Blake-Kozeny (BK) equation predicted the Darcy permeability for these bundles. Fiber bundles were fabricated from commercially available Celgard® ×30-240 fiber fabric (300 μm outer diameter fibers @ 35 and 54 fibers/inch) and from a fiber fabric with 193 μm fibers (61 fibers/inch). The fiber bundles were mounted to the bottom of an acrylic tube and Darcy permeability was determined by measuring the elapsed time for a column of glycerol solution to flow through a fiber bundle. The ratio of the measured Darcy permeability to that predicted from the BK equation varied from 1.09 to 0.56. A comprehensive literature review suggested a modified BK equation with the “constant” correlated to porosity. This modification improved the predictions of the BK equation, with the ratio of measured to predicted permeability varying from 1.13 to 0.84. PMID:22927706

USING MICROSOFT OFFICE EXCEL® 2007 TO CONDUCT GENERALIZED MATCHING ANALYSES

PubMed Central

Reed, Derek D

2009-01-01

The generalized matching equation is a robust and empirically supported means of analyzing relations between reinforcement and behavior. Unfortunately, no simple task analysis is available to behavior analysts interested in using the matching equation to evaluate data in clinical or applied settings. This technical article presents a task analysis for the use of Microsoft Excel to analyze and plot the generalized matching equation. Using a data-based case example and a step-by-step guide for completing the analysis, these instructions are intended to promote the use of quantitative analyses by researchers with little to no experience in quantitative analyses or the matching law. PMID:20514196

Using Microsoft Office Excel 2007 to conduct generalized matching analyses.

PubMed

Reed, Derek D

2009-01-01

The generalized matching equation is a robust and empirically supported means of analyzing relations between reinforcement and behavior. Unfortunately, no simple task analysis is available to behavior analysts interested in using the matching equation to evaluate data in clinical or applied settings. This technical article presents a task analysis for the use of Microsoft Excel to analyze and plot the generalized matching equation. Using a data-based case example and a step-by-step guide for completing the analysis, these instructions are intended to promote the use of quantitative analyses by researchers with little to no experience in quantitative analyses or the matching law.

Bluues: a program for the analysis of the electrostatic properties of proteins based on generalized Born radii

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) equation and its linear approximation have been widely used to describe biomolecular electrostatics. Generalized Born (GB) models offer a convenient computational approximation for the more fundamental approach based on the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, and allows estimation of pairwise contributions to electrostatic effects in the molecular context. Results We have implemented in a single program most common analyses of the electrostatic properties of proteins. The program first computes generalized Born radii, via a surface integral and then it uses generalized Born radii (using a finite radius test particle) to perform electrostic analyses. In particular the ouput of the program entails, depending on user's requirement: 1) the generalized Born radius of each atom; 2) the electrostatic solvation free energy; 3) the electrostatic forces on each atom (currently in a dvelopmental stage); 4) the pH-dependent properties (total charge and pH-dependent free energy of folding in the pH range -2 to 18; 5) the pKa of all ionizable groups; 6) the electrostatic potential at the surface of the molecule; 7) the electrostatic potential in a volume surrounding the molecule; Conclusions Although at the expense of limited flexibility the program provides most common analyses with requirement of a single input file in PQR format. The results obtained are comparable to those obtained using state-of-the-art Poisson-Boltzmann solvers. A Linux executable with example input and output files is provided as supplementary material. PMID:22536964

The Estimation of Gestational Age at Birth in Database Studies.

PubMed

Eberg, Maria; Platt, Robert W; Filion, Kristian B

2017-11-01

Studies on the safety of prenatal medication use require valid estimation of the pregnancy duration. However, gestational age is often incompletely recorded in administrative and clinical databases. Our objective was to compare different approaches to estimating the pregnancy duration. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics, we examined the following four approaches to estimating missing gestational age: (1) generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data; (2) multiple imputation; (3) estimation based on fetal birth weight and sex; and (4) conventional approaches that assigned a fixed value (39 weeks for all or 39 weeks for full term and 35 weeks for preterm). The gestational age recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics was considered the gold standard. We conducted a simulation study comparing the described approaches in terms of estimated bias and mean square error. A total of 25,929 infants from 22,774 mothers were included in our "gold standard" cohort. The smallest average absolute bias was observed for the generalized estimating equation that included birth weight, while the largest absolute bias occurred when assigning 39-week gestation to all those with missing values. The smallest mean square errors were detected with generalized estimating equations while multiple imputation had the highest mean square errors. The use of generalized estimating equations resulted in the most accurate estimation of missing gestational age when birth weight information was available. In the absence of birth weight, assignment of fixed gestational age based on term/preterm status may be the optimal approach.

Estimating peak discharges, flood volumes, and hydrograph shapes of small ungaged urban streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, J.M.

1986-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating peak discharges, flood volumes and hydrograph shapes of small (less than 5 sq mi) urban streams in Ohio. Examples of how to use the various regression equations and estimating techniques also are presented. Multiple-regression equations were developed for estimating peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The significant independent variables affecting peak discharge are drainage area, main-channel slope, average basin-elevation index, and basin-development factor. Standard errors of regression and prediction for the peak discharge equations range from +/-37% to +/-41%. An equation also was developed to estimate the flood volume of a given peak discharge. Peak discharge, drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin-development factor were found to be the significant independent variables affecting flood volumes for given peak discharges. The standard error of regression for the volume equation is +/-52%. A technique is described for estimating the shape of a runoff hydrograph by applying a specific peak discharge and the estimated lagtime to a dimensionless hydrograph. An equation for estimating the lagtime of a basin was developed. Two variables--main-channel length divided by the square root of the main-channel slope and basin-development factor--have a significant effect on basin lagtime. The standard error of regression for the lagtime equation is +/-48%. The data base for the study was established by collecting rainfall-runoff data at 30 basins distributed throughout several metropolitan areas of Ohio. Five to eight years of data were collected at a 5-min record interval. The USGS rainfall-runoff model A634 was calibrated for each site. The calibrated models were used in conjunction with long-term rainfall records to generate a long-term streamflow record for each site. Each annual peak-discharge record was fitted to a Log-Pearson Type III frequency curve. Multiple-regression techniques were then used to analyze the peak discharge data as a function of the basin characteristics of the 30 sites. (Author 's abstract)

Automatising the analysis of stochastic biochemical time-series

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Mathematical and computational modelling of biochemical systems has seen a lot of effort devoted to the definition and implementation of high-performance mechanistic simulation frameworks. Within these frameworks it is possible to analyse complex models under a variety of configurations, eventually selecting the best setting of, e.g., parameters for a target system. Motivation This operational pipeline relies on the ability to interpret the predictions of a model, often represented as simulation time-series. Thus, an efficient data analysis pipeline is crucial to automatise time-series analyses, bearing in mind that errors in this phase might mislead the modeller's conclusions. Results For this reason we have developed an intuitive framework-independent Python tool to automate analyses common to a variety of modelling approaches. These include assessment of useful non-trivial statistics for simulation ensembles, e.g., estimation of master equations. Intuitive and domain-independent batch scripts will allow the researcher to automatically prepare reports, thus speeding up the usual model-definition, testing and refinement pipeline. PMID:26051821

August median streamflow on ungaged streams in Eastern Coastal Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2004-01-01

Methods for estimating August median streamflow were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in eastern coastal Maine. The methods apply to streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 0.04 to 73.2 square miles and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer ranging from 0 to 71 percent. The equations were developed with data from three long-term (greater than or equal to 10 years of record) continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 23 partial-record streamflow- gaging stations, and 5 short-term (less than 10 years of record) continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations. A mathematical technique for estimating a standard low-flow statistic, August median streamflow, at partial-record streamflow-gaging stations and short-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily streamflows at nearby long-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (index stations). Generalized least-squares regression analysis (GLS) was used to relate estimates of August median streamflow at streamflow-gaging stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be applied to estimate August median streamflow on ungaged streams. GLS accounts for different periods of record at the gaging stations and the cross correlation of concurrent streamflows among gaging stations. Thirty-one stations were used for the final regression equations. Two basin characteristics?drainage area and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer?are used in the calculated regression equation to estimate August median streamflow for ungaged streams. The equation has an average standard error of prediction from -27 to 38 percent. A one-variable equation uses only drainage area to estimate August median streamflow when less accuracy is acceptable. This equation has an average standard error of prediction from -30 to 43 percent. Model error is larger than sampling error for both equations, indicating that additional or improved estimates of basin characteristics could be important to improved estimates of low-flow statistics. Weighted estimates of August median streamflow at partial- record or continuous-record gaging stations range from 0.003 to 31.0 cubic feet per second or from 0.1 to 0.6 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow on ungaged streams in eastern coastal Maine, within the range of acceptable explanatory variables, range from 0.003 to 45 cubic feet per second or 0.1 to 0.6 cubic feet per second per square mile. Estimates of August median streamflow per square mile of drainage area generally increase as drainage area and fraction of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer increase.

Excitation, response, and fatigue life estimation methods for the structural design of externally blown flaps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ungar, E. E.; Chandiramani, K. L.; Barger, J. E.

1972-01-01

Means for predicting the fluctuating pressures acting on externally blown flap surfaces are developed on the basis of generalizations derived from non-dimensionalized empirical data. Approaches for estimation of the fatigue lives of skin-stringer and honeycomb-core sandwich flap structures are derived from vibration response analyses and panel fatigue data. Approximate expressions for fluctuating pressures, structural response, and fatigue life are combined to reveal the important parametric dependences. The two-dimensional equations of motion of multi-element flap systems are derived in general form, so that they can be specialized readily for any particular system. An introduction is presented of an approach to characterizing the excitation pressures and structural responses which makes use of space-time spectral concepts and promises to provide useful insights, as well as experimental and analytical savings.

An Estimation Theory for Differential Equations and other Problems, with Applications.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-11-01

order differential -8- operators and M-operators, in particular, the Perron - Frobenius theory and generalizations. Convergence theory for iterative... THEORY FOR DIFFERENTIAL 0EQUATIONS AND OTHER FROBLEMS, WITH APPLICATIONS 0 ,Final Technical Report by Johann Schr6der November, 1981 EUROPEAN RESEARCH...COVERED An estimation theory for differential equations Final Report and other problrms, with app)lications A981 6. PERFORMING ORG. RN,-ORT NUMfFR 7

Use of a Spreadsheet to Help Students Understand the Origin of the Empirical Equation that Allows Estimation of the Extinction Coefficients of Proteins

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sims, Paul A.

2012-01-01

A brief history of the development of the empirical equation that is used by prominent, Internet-based programs to estimate (or calculate) the extinction coefficients of proteins is presented. In addition, an overview of a series of related assignments designed to help students understand the origin of the empirical equation is provided. The…

Regional equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1997-01-01

Peak-streamflow frequency for 559 Texas stations with natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) basins was estimated with annual peak-streamflow data through 1993. The peak-streamflow frequency and drainage-basin characteristics for the Texas stations were used to develop 16 sets of equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged natural stream sites in each of 11 regions in Texas. The relation between peak-streamflow frequency and contributing drainage area for 5 of the 11 regions is curvilinear, requiring that one set of equations be developed for drainage areas less than 32 square miles and another set be developed for drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. These equations, developed through multiple-regression analysis using weighted least squares, are based on the relation between peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations. The regions represent areas with similar flood characteristics. The use and limitations of the regression equations also are discussed. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent confidence limits for any estimation from the equations. Also, supplemental peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for 105 selected stations bordering Texas are included in the report. This supplemental information will aid in interpretation of flood characteristics for sites near the state borders of Texas.

Estimating fire-caused mortality and injury in oak-hickory forests.

Treesearch

Robert M. Loomis

1973-01-01

Presents equations and graphs for predicting fire-caused tree mortality and equations for estimating basal wound dimensions for surviving trees. The methods apply to black oak, white oak, and some other species of the oak-hickory forest type.

Flood characteristics of urban watersheds in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.; Thomas, W.O.; Stricker, V.A.; Wilson, K.V.

1983-01-01

A nationwide study of flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas was made for the purpose of reviewing available literature, compiling an urban flood data base, and developing methods of estimating urban floodflow characteristics in ungaged areas. The literature review contains synopses of 128 recent publications related to urban floodflow. A data base of 269 gaged basins in 56 cities and 31 States, including Hawaii, contains a wide variety of topographic and climatic characteristics, land-use variables, indices of urbanization, and flood-frequency estimates. Three sets of regression equations were developed to estimate flood discharges for ungaged sites for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years. Two sets of regression equations are based on seven independent parameters and the third is based on three independent parameters. The only difference in the two sets of seven-parameter equations is the use of basin lag time in one and lake and reservoir storage in the other. Of primary importance in these equations is an independent estimate of the equivalent rural discharge for the ungaged basin. The equations adjust the equivalent rural discharge to an urban condition. The primary adjustment factor, or index of urbanization, is the basin development factor, a measure of the extent of development of the drainage system in the basin. This measure includes evaluations of storm drains (sewers), channel improvements, and curb-and-gutter streets. The basin development factor is statistically very significant and offers a simple and effective way of accounting for drainage development and runoff response in urban areas. Percentage of impervious area is also included in the seven-parameter equations as an additional measure of urbanization and apparently accounts for increased runoff volumes. This factor is not highly significant for large floods, which supports the generally held concept that imperviousness is not a dominant factor when soils become more saturated during large storms. Other parameters in the seven-parameter equations include drainage area size, channel slope, rainfall intensity, lake and reservoir storage, and basin lag time. These factors are all statistically significant and provide logical indices of basin conditions. The three-parameter equations include only the three most significant parameters: rural discharge, basin-development factor, and drainage area size. All three sets of regression equations provide unbiased estimates of urban flood frequency. The seven-parameter regression equations without basin lag time have average standard errors of regression varying from ? 37 percent for the 5-year flood to ? 44 percent for the 100-year flood and ? 49 percent for the 500-year flood. The other two sets of regression equations have similar accuracy. Several tests for bias, sensitivity, and hydrologic consistency are included which support the conclusion that the equations are useful throughout the United States. All estimating equations were developed from data collected on drainage basins where temporary in-channel storage, due to highway embankments, was not significant. Consequently, estimates made with these equations do not account for the reducing effect of this temporary detention storage.

Correlation of cystatin C and creatinine based estimates of renal function in children with hydronephrosis.

PubMed

Momtaz, Hossein-Emad; Dehghan, Arash; Karimian, Mohammad

2016-01-01

The use of a simple and accurate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating method aiming minute assessment of renal function can be of great clinical importance. This study aimed to determine the association of a GFR estimating by equation that includes only cystatin C (Gentian equation) to equation that include only creatinine (Schwartz equation) among children. A total of 31 children aged from 1 day to 5 years with the final diagnosis of unilateral or bilateral hydronephrosis referred to Besat hospital in Hamadan, between March 2010 and February 2011 were consecutively enrolled. Schwartz and Gentian equations were employed to determine GFR based on plasma creatinine and cystatin C levels, respectively. The proportion of GFR based on Schwartz equation was 70.19± 24.86 ml/min/1.73 m(2), while the level of this parameter based on Gentian method and using cystatin C was 86.97 ± 21.57 ml/min/1.73 m(2). The Pearson correlation coefficient analysis showed a strong direct association between the two levels of GFR measured by Schwartz equation based on serum creatinine level and Gentian method and using cystatin C (r = 0.594, P < 0.001). The linear association between GFR values measured with the two methods included cystatin C based GFR = 50.8+ 0.515 × Schwartz GFR. The correlation between GFR values measured by using serum creatinine and serum cystatin C measurements remained meaningful even after adjustment for patients' gender and age (r = 0.724, P < 0.001). The equation developed based on cystatin C level is comparable with another equation, based on serum creatinine (Schwartz formula) to estimate GFR in children.

Generation of a new cystatin C-based estimating equation for glomerular filtration rate by use of 7 assays standardized to the international calibrator.

PubMed

Grubb, Anders; Horio, Masaru; Hansson, Lars-Olof; Björk, Jonas; Nyman, Ulf; Flodin, Mats; Larsson, Anders; Bökenkamp, Arend; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Blufpand, Hester; Lindström, Veronica; Zegers, Ingrid; Althaus, Harald; Blirup-Jensen, Søren; Itoh, Yoshi; Sjöström, Per; Nordin, Gunnar; Christensson, Anders; Klima, Horst; Sunde, Kathrin; Hjort-Christensen, Per; Armbruster, David; Ferrero, Carlo

2014-07-01

Many different cystatin C-based equations exist for estimating glomerular filtration rate. Major reasons for this are the previous lack of an international cystatin C calibrator and the nonequivalence of results from different cystatin C assays. Use of the recently introduced certified reference material, ERM-DA471/IFCC, and further work to achieve high agreement and equivalence of 7 commercially available cystatin C assays allowed a substantial decrease of the CV of the assays, as defined by their performance in an external quality assessment for clinical laboratory investigations. By use of 2 of these assays and a population of 4690 subjects, with large subpopulations of children and Asian and Caucasian adults, with their GFR determined by either renal or plasma inulin clearance or plasma iohexol clearance, we attempted to produce a virtually assay-independent simple cystatin C-based equation for estimation of GFR. We developed a simple cystatin C-based equation for estimation of GFR comprising only 2 variables, cystatin C concentration and age. No terms for race and sex are required for optimal diagnostic performance. The equation, [Formula: see text] is also biologically oriented, with 1 term for the theoretical renal clearance of small molecules and 1 constant for extrarenal clearance of cystatin C. A virtually assay-independent simple cystatin C-based and biologically oriented equation for estimation of GFR, without terms for sex and race, was produced. © 2014 The American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Accurate prediction of cardiorespiratory fitness using cycle ergometry in minimally disabled persons with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Motl, Robert W; Fernhall, Bo

2012-03-01

To examine the accuracy of predicting peak oxygen consumption (VO(2peak)) primarily from peak work rate (WR(peak)) recorded during a maximal, incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer among persons with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who had minimal disability. Cross-sectional study. Clinical research laboratory. Women with RRMS (n=32) and sex-, age-, height-, and weight-matched healthy controls (n=16) completed an incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer to volitional termination. Not applicable. Measured and predicted VO(2peak) and WR(peak). There were strong, statistically significant associations between measured and predicted VO(2peak) in the overall sample (R(2)=.89, standard error of the estimate=127.4 mL/min) and subsamples with (R(2)=.89, standard error of the estimate=131.3 mL/min) and without (R(2)=.85, standard error of the estimate=126.8 mL/min) multiple sclerosis (MS) based on the linear regression analyses. Based on the 95% confidence limits for worst-case errors, the equation predicted VO(2peak) within 10% of its true value in 95 of every 100 subjects with MS. Peak VO(2) can be accurately predicted in persons with RRMS who have minimal disability as it is in controls by using established equations and WR(peak) recorded from a maximal, incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structural determinants of inconsistent condom use with clients among migrant sex workers: findings of longitudinal research in an urban canadian setting.

PubMed

Sou, Julie; Shannon, Kate; Li, Jane; Nguyen, Paul; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Shoveller, Jean; Goldenberg, Shira M

2015-06-01

Migrant women in sex work experience unique risks and protective factors related to their sexual health. Given the dearth of knowledge in high-income countries, we explored factors associated with inconsistent condom use by clients among migrant female sex workers over time in Vancouver, BC. Questionnaire and HIV/sexually transmitted infection testing data from a longitudinal cohort, An Evaluation of Sex Workers Health Access, were collected from 2010 to 2013. Logistic regression using generalized estimating equations was used to model correlates of inconsistent condom use by clients among international migrant sex workers over a 3-year study period. Of 685 participants, analyses were restricted to 182 (27%) international migrants who primarily originated from China. In multivariate generalized estimating equations analyses, difficulty accessing condoms (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 3.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-12.47) independently correlated with increased odds of inconsistent condom use by clients. Servicing clients in indoor sex work establishments (e.g., massage parlors) (AOR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.15-0.77), and high school attainment (AOR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.09-0.50) had independent protective effects on the odds of inconsistent condom use by clients. Findings of this longitudinal study highlight the persistent challenges faced by migrant sex workers in terms of accessing and using condoms. Migrant sex workers who experienced difficulty in accessing condoms were more than 3 times as likely to report inconsistent condom use by clients. Laws, policies, and programs promoting access to safer, decriminalized indoor work environments remain urgently needed to promote health, safety, and human rights for migrant workers in the sex industry.

Comparison of the prevalence and mortality risk of CKD in Australia using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study GFR estimating equations: the AusDiab (Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle) Study.

PubMed

White, Sarah L; Polkinghorne, Kevan R; Atkins, Robert C; Chadban, Steven J

2010-04-01

The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) is more accurate than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. We applied both equations in a cohort representative of the Australian adult population. Population-based cohort study. 11,247 randomly selected noninstitutionalized Australians aged >or= 25 years who attended a physical examination during the baseline AusDiab (Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle) Study survey. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using the MDRD Study and CKD-EPI equations. Kidney damage was defined as urine albumin-creatinine ratio >or= 2.5 mg/mmol in men and >or= 3.5 mg/mmol in women or urine protein-creatinine ratio >or= 0.20 mg/mg. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as estimated GFR (eGFR) >or= 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or kidney damage. Participants were classified into 3 mutually exclusive subgroups: CKD according to both equations; CKD according to the MDRD Study equation, but no CKD according to the CKD-EPI equation; and no CKD according to both equations. All-cause mortality was examined in subgroups with and without CKD. Serum creatinine and urinary albumin, protein, and creatinine measured on a random spot morning urine sample. 266 participants identified as having CKD according to the MDRD Study equation were reclassified to no CKD according to the CKD-EPI equation (estimated prevalence, 1.9%; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6). All had an eGFR >or= 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) using the MDRD Study equation. Reclassified individuals were predominantly women with a favorable cardiovascular risk profile. The proportion of reclassified individuals with a Framingham-predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk >or= 30% was 7.2% compared with 7.9% of the group with no CKD according to both equations and 45.3% of individuals retained in stage 3a using both equations. There was no evidence of increased all-cause mortality in the reclassified group (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio vs no CKD, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.62-1.97). Using the MDRD Study equation, the prevalence of CKD in the Australian population aged >or= 25 years was 13.4% (95% CI, 11.1-16.1). Using the CKD-EPI equation, the prevalence was 11.5% (95% CI, 9.42-14.1). Single measurements of serum creatinine and urinary markers. The lower estimated prevalence of CKD using the CKD-EPI equation is caused by reclassification of low-risk individuals. Copyright 2010 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reprint of: Relationship between cataract severity and socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Wesolosky, Jason D; Rudnisky, Christopher J

2015-06-01

To determine the relationship between cataract severity and socioeconomic status (SES). Retrospective, observational case series. A total of 1350 eyes underwent phacoemulsification cataract extraction by a single surgeon using an Alcon Infiniti system. Cataract severity was measured using phaco time in seconds. SES was measured using area-level aggregate census data: median income, education, proportion of common-law couples, and employment rate. Preoperative best corrected visual acuity was obtained and converted to logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution values. For patients undergoing bilateral surgery, the generalized estimating equation was used to account for the correlation between eyes. Univariate analyses were performed using simple regression, and multivariate analyses were performed to account for variables with significant relationships (p < 0.05) on univariate testing. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of including patient age in the controlled analyses. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that cataracts were more severe when the median income was lower (p = 0.001) and the proportion of common-law couples living in a patient's community (p = 0.012) and the unemployment rate (p = 0.002) were higher. These associations persisted even when controlling for patient age. Patients of lower SES have more severe cataracts. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Early detection of nonnative alleles in fish populations: When sample size actually matters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croce, Patrick Della; Poole, Geoffrey C.; Payne, Robert A.; Gresswell, Bob

2017-01-01

Reliable detection of nonnative alleles is crucial for the conservation of sensitive native fish populations at risk of introgression. Typically, nonnative alleles in a population are detected through the analysis of genetic markers in a sample of individuals. Here we show that common assumptions associated with such analyses yield substantial overestimates of the likelihood of detecting nonnative alleles. We present a revised equation to estimate the likelihood of detecting nonnative alleles in a population with a given level of admixture. The new equation incorporates the effects of the genotypic structure of the sampled population and shows that conventional methods overestimate the likelihood of detection, especially when nonnative or F-1 hybrid individuals are present. Under such circumstances—which are typical of early stages of introgression and therefore most important for conservation efforts—our results show that improved detection of nonnative alleles arises primarily from increasing the number of individuals sampled rather than increasing the number of genetic markers analyzed. Using the revised equation, we describe a new approach to determining the number of individuals to sample and the number of diagnostic markers to analyze when attempting to monitor the arrival of nonnative alleles in native populations.

Computational tools for fitting the Hill equation to dose-response curves.

PubMed

Gadagkar, Sudhindra R; Call, Gerald B

2015-01-01

Many biological response curves commonly assume a sigmoidal shape that can be approximated well by means of the 4-parameter nonlinear logistic equation, also called the Hill equation. However, estimation of the Hill equation parameters requires access to commercial software or the ability to write computer code. Here we present two user-friendly and freely available computer programs to fit the Hill equation - a Solver-based Microsoft Excel template and a stand-alone GUI-based "point and click" program, called HEPB. Both computer programs use the iterative method to estimate two of the Hill equation parameters (EC50 and the Hill slope), while constraining the values of the other two parameters (the minimum and maximum asymptotes of the response variable) to fit the Hill equation to the data. In addition, HEPB draws the prediction band at a user-defined confidence level, and determines the EC50 value for each of the limits of this band to give boundary values that help objectively delineate sensitive, normal and resistant responses to the drug being tested. Both programs were tested by analyzing twelve datasets that varied widely in data values, sample size and slope, and were found to yield estimates of the Hill equation parameters that were essentially identical to those provided by commercial software such as GraphPad Prism and nls, the statistical package in the programming language R. The Excel template provides a means to estimate the parameters of the Hill equation and plot the regression line in a familiar Microsoft Office environment. HEPB, in addition to providing the above results, also computes the prediction band for the data at a user-defined level of confidence, and determines objective cut-off values to distinguish among response types (sensitive, normal and resistant). Both programs are found to yield estimated values that are essentially the same as those from standard software such as GraphPad Prism and the R-based nls. Furthermore, HEPB also has the option to simulate 500 response values based on the range of values of the dose variable in the original data and the fit of the Hill equation to that data. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of a set of equations for incorporating disk flexibility effects in rotordynamical analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flowers, George T.; Ryan, Stephen G.

1991-01-01

Rotordynamical equations that account for disk flexibility are developed. These equations employ free-free rotor modes to model the rotor system. Only transverse vibrations of the disks are considered, with the shaft/disk system considered to be torsionally rigid. Second order elastic foreshortening effects that couple with the rotor speed to produce first order terms in the equations of motion are included. The approach developed in this study is readily adaptable for usage in many of the codes that are current used in rotordynamical simulations. The equations are similar to those used in standard rigid disk analyses but with additional terms that include the effects of disk flexibility. An example case is presented to demonstrate the use of the equations and to show the influence of disk flexibility on the rotordynamical behavior of a sample system.

The estimation of lower refractivity uncertainty from radar sea clutter using the Bayesian—MCMC method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Zheng

2013-02-01

The estimation of lower atmospheric refractivity from radar sea clutter (RFC) is a complicated nonlinear optimization problem. This paper deals with the RFC problem in a Bayesian framework. It uses the unbiased Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique, which can provide accurate posterior probability distributions of the estimated refractivity parameters by using an electromagnetic split-step fast Fourier transform terrain parabolic equation propagation model within a Bayesian inversion framework. In contrast to the global optimization algorithm, the Bayesian—MCMC can obtain not only the approximate solutions, but also the probability distributions of the solutions, that is, uncertainty analyses of solutions. The Bayesian—MCMC algorithm is implemented on the simulation radar sea-clutter data and the real radar sea-clutter data. Reference data are assumed to be simulation data and refractivity profiles are obtained using a helicopter. The inversion algorithm is assessed (i) by comparing the estimated refractivity profiles from the assumed simulation and the helicopter sounding data; (ii) the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) posterior probability distribution of solutions.

Determination of the stability and control derivatives of the NASA F/A-18 HARV using flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Napolitano, Marcello R.; Spagnuolo, Joelle M.

1993-01-01

This report documents the research conducted for the NASA-Ames Cooperative Agreement No. NCC 2-759 with West Virginia University. A complete set of the stability and control derivatives for varying angles of attack from 10 deg to 60 deg were estimated from flight data of the NASA F/A-18 HARV. The data were analyzed with the use of the pEst software which implements the output-error method of parameter estimation. Discussions of the aircraft equations of motion, parameter estimation process, design of flight test maneuvers, and formulation of the mathematical model are presented. The added effects of the thrust vectoring and single surface excitation systems are also addressed. The results of the longitudinal and lateral directional derivative estimates at varying angles of attack are presented and compared to results from previous analyses. The results indicate a significant improvement due to the independent control surface deflections induced by the single surface excitation system, and at the same time, a need for additional flight data especially at higher angles of attack.

Improved protocol and data analysis for accelerated shelf-life estimation of solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Waterman, Kenneth C; Carella, Anthony J; Gumkowski, Michael J; Lukulay, Patrick; MacDonald, Bruce C; Roy, Michael C; Shamblin, Sheri L

2007-04-01

To propose and test a new accelerated aging protocol for solid-state, small molecule pharmaceuticals which provides faster predictions for drug substance and drug product shelf-life. The concept of an isoconversion paradigm, where times in different temperature and humidity-controlled stability chambers are set to provide a critical degradant level, is introduced for solid-state pharmaceuticals. Reliable estimates for temperature and relative humidity effects are handled using a humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation, where temperature and relative humidity are assumed to be orthogonal. Imprecision is incorporated into a Monte-Carlo simulation to propagate the variations inherent in the experiment. In early development phases, greater imprecision in predictions is tolerated to allow faster screening with reduced sampling. Early development data are then used to design appropriate test conditions for more reliable later stability estimations. Examples are reported showing that predicted shelf-life values for lower temperatures and different relative humidities are consistent with the measured shelf-life values at those conditions. The new protocols and analyses provide accurate and precise shelf-life estimations in a reduced time from current state of the art.

More data, less information? Potential for nonmonotonic information growth using GEE.

PubMed

Shoben, Abigail B; Rudser, Kyle D; Emerson, Scott S

2017-01-01

Statistical intuition suggests that increasing the total number of observations available for analysis should increase the precision with which parameters can be estimated. Such monotonic growth of statistical information is of particular importance when data are analyzed sequentially, such as in confirmatory clinical trials. However, monotonic information growth is not always guaranteed, even when using a valid, but inefficient estimator. In this article, we demonstrate the theoretical possibility of nonmonotonic information growth when using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to estimate a slope and provide intuition for why this possibility exists. We use theoretical and simulation-based results to characterize situations that may result in nonmonotonic information growth. Nonmonotonic information growth is most likely to occur when (1) accrual is fast relative to follow-up on each individual, (2) correlation among measurements from the same individual is high, and (3) measurements are becoming more variable further from randomization. In situations that may lead to nonmonotonic information growth, study designers should plan interim analyses to avoid situations most likely to result in nonmonotonic information growth.

The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, H. F.

1976-01-01

Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate were considered. These equations suggest certain successive approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates. The procedures, which are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures, contain those of Hosmer as a special case.

Flexible Approaches to Computing Mediated Effects in Generalized Linear Models: Generalized Estimating Equations and Bootstrapping

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schluchter, Mark D.

2008-01-01

In behavioral research, interest is often in examining the degree to which the effect of an independent variable X on an outcome Y is mediated by an intermediary or mediator variable M. This article illustrates how generalized estimating equations (GEE) modeling can be used to estimate the indirect or mediated effect, defined as the amount by…

A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis Revision 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narlesky, Joshua Edward; Kelly, Elizabeth J.

2015-09-10

This report documents the new PG calibration regression equation. These calibration equations incorporate new data that have become available since revision 1 of “A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis” was issued [3] The calibration equations are based on a weighted least squares (WLS) approach for the regression. The WLS method gives each data point its proper amount of influence over the parameter estimates. This gives two big advantages, more precise parameter estimates and better and more defensible estimates of uncertainties. The WLS approach makes sense both statistically and experimentally because themore » variances increase with concentration, and there are physical reasons that the higher measurements are less reliable and should be less influential. The new magnesium calibration includes a correction for sodium and separate calibration equation for items with and without chlorine. These additional calibration equations allow for better predictions and smaller uncertainties for sodium in materials with and without chlorine. Chlorine and sodium have separate equations for RICH materials. Again, these equations give better predictions and smaller uncertainties chlorine and sodium for RICH materials.« less

Age-related factors in the relationship between foot measurements and living stature and body weight.

PubMed

Atamturk, Derya; Duyar, Izzet

2008-11-01

The measurements of feet and footprints are especially important in forensic identification, as they have been used to predict the body height and weight of victims or suspects. It can be observed that the subjects of forensic-oriented studies are generally young adults. That is to say, researchers rarely take into consideration the body's proportional changes with age. Hence, the aim of this study is to generate equations which take age and sex into consideration, when stature and body weight are estimated from foot and footprints dimensions. With this aim in mind, we measured the stature, body weight, foot length and breadth, heel breadth, footprint length and breadth, and footprint heel breadth of 516 volunteers (253 males and 263 females) aged between 17.6 and 82.9 years using standard measurement techniques. The sample population was divided randomly into two groups. Group 1, the study group, consisted of 80% of the sample (n = 406); the remaining 20% were assigned to the cross-validation group or Group 2 (n = 110). In the first stage of the study, we produced equations for estimating stature and weight using a stepwise regression technique. Then, their reliability was tested on Group 2 members. Statistical analyses showed that the ratios of foot dimensions to stature and body weight change considerably with age and sex. Consequently, the regression equations which include these variables yielded more reliable results. Our results indicated that age and sex should be taken into consideration when predicting human body height and weight for forensic purposes.

Validity of bioelectrical impedance measurement in predicting fat-free mass of Chinese children and adolescents.

PubMed

Wang, Lin; Hui, Stanley Sai-chuen; Wong, Stephen Heung-sang

2014-11-15

The current study aimed to examine the validity of various published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations in estimating FFM among Chinese children and adolescents and to develop BIA equations for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate for Chinese children and adolescents. A total of 255 healthy Chinese children and adolescents aged 9 to 19 years old (127 males and 128 females) from Tianjin, China, participated in the BIA measurement at 50 kHz between the hand and the foot. The criterion measure of FFM was also employed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). FFM estimated from 24 published BIA equations was cross-validated against the criterion measure from DEXA. Multiple linear regression was conducted to examine alternative BIA equation for the studied population. FFM estimated from the 24 published BIA equations yielded high correlations with the directly measured FFM from DEXA. However, none of the 24 equations was statistically equivalent with the DEXA-measured FFM. Using multiple linear regression and cross-validation against DEXA measurement, an alternative prediction equation was determined as follows: FFM (kg)=1.613+0.742×height (cm)2/impedance (Ω)+0.151×body weight (kg); R2=0.95; SEE=2.45 kg; CV=6.5, 93.7% of the residuals of all the participants fell within the 95% limits of agreement. BIA was highly correlated with FFM in Chinese children and adolescents. When the new developed BIA equations are applied, BIA can provide a practical and valid measurement of body composition in Chinese children and adolescents.

Validity of Bioelectrical Impedance Measurement in Predicting Fat-Free Mass of Chinese Children and Adolescents

PubMed Central

Wang, Lin; Hui, Stanley Sai-chuen; Wong, Stephen Heung-sang

2014-01-01

Background The current study aimed to examine the validity of various published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations in estimating FFM among Chinese children and adolescents and to develop BIA equations for the estimation of fat-free mass (FFM) appropriate for Chinese children and adolescents. Material/Methods A total of 255 healthy Chinese children and adolescents aged 9 to 19 years old (127 males and 128 females) from Tianjin, China, participated in the BIA measurement at 50 kHz between the hand and the foot. The criterion measure of FFM was also employed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). FFM estimated from 24 published BIA equations was cross-validated against the criterion measure from DEXA. Multiple linear regression was conducted to examine alternative BIA equation for the studied population. Results FFM estimated from the 24 published BIA equations yielded high correlations with the directly measured FFM from DEXA. However, none of the 24 equations was statistically equivalent with the DEXA-measured FFM. Using multiple linear regression and cross-validation against DEXA measurement, an alternative prediction equation was determined as follows: FFM (kg)=1.613+0.742×height (cm)2/impedance (Ω)+0.151×body weight (kg); R2=0.95; SEE=2.45kg; CV=6.5, 93.7% of the residuals of all the participants fell within the 95% limits of agreement. Conclusions BIA was highly correlated with FFM in Chinese children and adolescents. When the new developed BIA equations are applied, BIA can provide a practical and valid measurement of body composition in Chinese children and adolescents. PMID:25398209

Semi-empirical estimation of organic compound fugacity ratios at environmentally relevant system temperatures.

PubMed

van Noort, Paul C M

2009-06-01

Fugacity ratios of organic compounds are used to calculate (subcooled) liquid properties, such as solubility or vapour pressure, from solid properties and vice versa. They can be calculated from the entropy of fusion, the melting temperature, and heat capacity data for the solid and the liquid. For many organic compounds, values for the fusion entropy are lacking. Heat capacity data are even scarcer. In the present study, semi-empirical compound class specific equations were derived to estimate fugacity ratios from molecular weight and melting temperature for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated benzenes, biphenyls, dibenzo[p]dioxins and dibenzofurans. These equations estimate fugacity ratios with an average standard error of about 0.05 log units. In addition, for compounds with known fusion entropy values, a general semi-empirical correction equation based on molecular weight and melting temperature was derived for estimation of the contribution of heat capacity differences to the fugacity ratio. This equation estimates the heat capacity contribution correction factor with an average standard error of 0.02 log units for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated benzenes, biphenyls, dibenzo[p]dioxins and dibenzofurans.

Bankfull discharge and channel characteristics of streams in New York State

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mulvihill, Christiane I.; Baldigo, Barry P.; Miller, Sarah J.; DeKoskie, Douglas; DuBois, Joel

2009-01-01

Equations that relate drainage area to bankfull discharge and channel characteristics (such as width, depth, and cross-sectional area) at gaged sites are needed to help define bankfull discharge and channel characteristics at ungaged sites and can be used in stream-restoration and protection projects, stream-channel classification, and channel assessments. These equations are intended to serve as a guide for streams in areas of similar hydrologic, climatic, and physiographic conditions. New York State contains eight hydrologic regions that were previously delineated on the basis of high-flow (flood) characteristics. This report seeks to increase understanding of the factors affecting bankfull discharge and channel characteristics to drainage-area size relations in New York State by providing an in-depth analysis of seven previously published regional bankfull-discharge and channel-characteristics curves.Stream-survey data and discharge records from 281 cross sections at 82 streamflow-gaging stations were used in regression analyses to relate drainage area to bankfull discharge and bankfull-channel width, depth, and cross-sectional area. The R2 and standard errors of estimate of each regional equation were compared to the R2 and standard errors of estimate for the statewide (pooled) model to determine if regionalizing data reduced model variability. It was found that regional models typically yield less variable results than those obtained using pooled statewide equations, which indicates statistically significant regional differences in bankfull-discharge and channel-characteristics relations.Statistical analysis of bankfull-discharge relations found that curves for regions 4 and 7 fell outside the 95-percent confidence interval bands of the statewide model and had intercepts that were significantly diferent (p≤0.10) from the other five hydrologic regions.Analysis of channel-characteristics relations found that the bankfull width, depth, and cross-sectional area curves for region 3 were significantly different p(≤0.05) from the other six regions.It was hypothesized that some regional variability could be reduced by creating models for streams with similar physiographic and climatic characteristics. Available data on streamflow patterns and previous regional-curve research suggested that mean annual runoff, Rosgen stream type, and water-surface slope were the variables most likely to influence regional bankfull discharge and channel characteristics to drainage-area size relations. Results showed that although all of these factors had an influence on regional relations, most stratified models have lower 2 values and higher standard errors of estimate than the regional models.The New York statewide (pooled) bankfull-discharge equation and equations for regions 4 and 7 were compared with equations for four other regions in the Northeast to evaluate region-to-region differences, and assess the ability of individual curves to produce results more accurate than those that would be obtained from one model of the northeastern United States. Results indicated that model slopes lack significant diferences, though intercepts are significantly different. Comparison of bankfull-discharge estimates using different models shows that results could vary by as much as 100 percent depending on which model was used and indicated that regionalization improved model accuracy.

The use of generalized linear models and generalized estimating equations in bioarchaeological studies.

PubMed

Nikita, Efthymia

2014-03-01

The current article explores whether the application of generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized estimating equations (GEE) can be used in place of conventional statistical analyses in the study of ordinal data that code an underlying continuous variable, like entheseal changes. The analysis of artificial data and ordinal data expressing entheseal changes in archaeological North African populations gave the following results. Parametric and nonparametric tests give convergent results particularly for P values <0.1, irrespective of whether the underlying variable is normally distributed or not under the condition that the samples involved in the tests exhibit approximately equal sizes. If this prerequisite is valid and provided that the samples are of equal variances, analysis of covariance may be adopted. GLM are not subject to constraints and give results that converge to those obtained from all nonparametric tests. Therefore, they can be used instead of traditional tests as they give the same amount of information as them, but with the advantage of allowing the study of the simultaneous impact of multiple predictors and their interactions and the modeling of the experimental data. However, GLM should be replaced by GEE for the study of bilateral asymmetry and in general when paired samples are tested, because GEE are appropriate for correlated data. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An Approach of Estimating Individual Growth Curves for Young Thoroughbred Horses Based on Their Birthdays

PubMed Central

ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter denoting the birthday information was added for the modeling of the individual growth curves for each horse by shifting the meeting points in the compensatory growth periods. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of Thoroughbred colts and fillies, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements of both sexes were used in the analyses. The results of predicted error difference and Akaike Information Criterion showed that the individual growth curves using birthday information better fit to the body weight and withers height data than not using them. The individual growth curve for each horse would be a useful tool for the feeding managements of young Japanese Thoroughbreds in compensatory growth periods. PMID:25013356

Solutions to Some Nonlinear Equations from Nonmetric Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rule, Stanley J.

1979-01-01

A method to provide estimates of parameters of specified nonlinear equations from ordinal data generated from a crossed design is presented. The statistical basis for the method, called NOPE (nonmetric parameter estimation), as well as examples using artifical data, are presented. (Author/JKS)

Equations for estimating stand establishment, release, and thinning costs in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Jeffrey T. Olson; Allen L. Lundgren; Dietmar Rose

1978-01-01

Equations for estimating project costs for certain silvicultural treatments in the Lake States have been developed from project records of public forests. Treatments include machine site preparation, hand planting, aerial spraying, prescribed burning, manual release, and thinning.

Error estimation in the neural network solution of ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Filici, Cristian

2010-06-01

In this article a method of error estimation for the neural approximation of the solution of an Ordinary Differential Equation is presented. Some examples of the application of the method support the theory presented. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

EMGD-FE: an open source graphical user interface for estimating isometric muscle forces in the lower limb using an EMG-driven model

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background This paper describes the “EMG Driven Force Estimator (EMGD-FE)”, a Matlab® graphical user interface (GUI) application that estimates skeletal muscle forces from electromyography (EMG) signals. Muscle forces are obtained by numerically integrating a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that simulates Hill-type muscle dynamics and that utilises EMG signals as input. In the current version, the GUI can estimate the forces of lower limb muscles executing isometric contractions. Muscles from other parts of the body can be tested as well, although no default values for model parameters are provided. To achieve accurate evaluations, EMG collection is performed simultaneously with torque measurement from a dynamometer. The computer application guides the user, step-by-step, to pre-process the raw EMG signals, create inputs for the muscle model, numerically integrate the ODEs and analyse the results. Results An example of the application’s functions is presented using the quadriceps femoris muscle. Individual muscle force estimations for the four components as well the knee isometric torque are shown. Conclusions The proposed GUI can estimate individual muscle forces from EMG signals of skeletal muscles. The estimation accuracy depends on several factors, including signal collection and modelling hypothesis issues. PMID:24708668

EMGD-FE: an open source graphical user interface for estimating isometric muscle forces in the lower limb using an EMG-driven model.

PubMed

Menegaldo, Luciano Luporini; de Oliveira, Liliam Fernandes; Minato, Kin K

2014-04-04

This paper describes the "EMG Driven Force Estimator (EMGD-FE)", a Matlab® graphical user interface (GUI) application that estimates skeletal muscle forces from electromyography (EMG) signals. Muscle forces are obtained by numerically integrating a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that simulates Hill-type muscle dynamics and that utilises EMG signals as input. In the current version, the GUI can estimate the forces of lower limb muscles executing isometric contractions. Muscles from other parts of the body can be tested as well, although no default values for model parameters are provided. To achieve accurate evaluations, EMG collection is performed simultaneously with torque measurement from a dynamometer. The computer application guides the user, step-by-step, to pre-process the raw EMG signals, create inputs for the muscle model, numerically integrate the ODEs and analyse the results. An example of the application's functions is presented using the quadriceps femoris muscle. Individual muscle force estimations for the four components as well the knee isometric torque are shown. The proposed GUI can estimate individual muscle forces from EMG signals of skeletal muscles. The estimation accuracy depends on several factors, including signal collection and modelling hypothesis issues.

Spectral Estimation: An Overdetermined Rational Model Equation Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-09-15

A-A123 122 SPECTRAL ESTIMATION: AN OVERDETERMINEO RATIONAL MODEL 1/2 EQUATION APPROACH..(U) ARIZONA STATE UNIV TEMPE DEPT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER...2 0 447,_______ 4. TITLE (mAd Sabile) S. TYPE or REPORT a PEP40D COVERED Spectral Estimation; An Overdeteruined Rational Final Report 9/3 D/8 to...andmmd&t, by uwek 7a5 4 Rational Spectral Estimation, ARMA mo~Ie1, AR model, NMA Mdle, Spectrum, Singular Value Decomposition. Adaptivb Implementatlan

Model Parameterization and P-wave AVA Direct Inversion for Young's Impedance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zong, Zhaoyun; Yin, Xingyao

2017-05-01

AVA inversion is an important tool for elastic parameters estimation to guide the lithology prediction and "sweet spot" identification of hydrocarbon reservoirs. The product of the Young's modulus and density (named as Young's impedance in this study) is known as an effective lithology and brittleness indicator of unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs. Density is difficult to predict from seismic data, which renders the estimation of the Young's impedance inaccurate in conventional approaches. In this study, a pragmatic seismic AVA inversion approach with only P-wave pre-stack seismic data is proposed to estimate the Young's impedance to avoid the uncertainty brought by density. First, based on the linearized P-wave approximate reflectivity equation in terms of P-wave and S-wave moduli, the P-wave approximate reflectivity equation in terms of the Young's impedance is derived according to the relationship between P-wave modulus, S-wave modulus, Young's modulus and Poisson ratio. This equation is further compared to the exact Zoeppritz equation and the linearized P-wave approximate reflectivity equation in terms of P- and S-wave velocities and density, which illustrates that this equation is accurate enough to be used for AVA inversion when the incident angle is within the critical angle. Parameter sensitivity analysis illustrates that the high correlation between the Young's impedance and density render the estimation of the Young's impedance difficult. Therefore, a de-correlation scheme is used in the pragmatic AVA inversion with Bayesian inference to estimate Young's impedance only with pre-stack P-wave seismic data. Synthetic examples demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to predict the Young's impedance stably even with moderate noise and the field data examples verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach in Young's impedance estimation and "sweet spots" evaluation.

Estimation of selected seasonal streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating seasonal 1-day 10-year, 7-day 10-year, and 30-day 5-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the seasonal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows and the 50-percent flow-duration values. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Regional equations were developed using ordinary least squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamgage stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia-North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle Regions-were determined. Drainage area, average annual precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. The average standard error of estimates for the equations ranged from 12.6 to 299 percent. Procedures developed to estimate the selected seasonal streamflow statistics in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have independent variables within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations: drainage area from 16.3 to 1,516 square miles in the North Region, from 2.78 to 1,619 square miles in the South-Central Region, and from 8.83 to 3,041 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle Region; average annual precipitation from 42.3 to 61.4 inches in the South-Central Region and from 39.8 to 52.9 inches in the Eastern Panhandle Region; and longitude of the basin centroid from 79.618 to 82.023 decimal degrees in the North Region. All estimates of seasonal streamflow statistics are representative of the period from the 1930 to the 2002 climatic year.

Dynamical behavior for the three-dimensional generalized Hasegawa-Mima equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Ruifeng; Guo Boling; Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, P.O. Box 8009, Beijing 100088

2007-01-15

The long time behavior of solution of the three-dimensional generalized Hasegawa-Mima [Phys. Fluids 21, 87 (1978)] equations with dissipation term is considered. The global attractor problem of the three-dimensional generalized Hasegawa-Mima equations with periodic boundary condition was studied. Applying the method of uniform a priori estimates, the existence of global attractor of this problem was proven, and also the dimensions of the global attractor are estimated.

Stochastic model for threat assessment in multi-sensor defense system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yongcheng; Wang, Hongfei; Jiang, Changsheng

2007-11-01

This paper puts forward a stochastic model for target detecting and tracking in multi-sensor defense systems and applies the Lanchester differential equations to threat assessment in combat. The two different modes of targets tracking and their respective Lanchester differential equations are analyzed and established. By use of these equations, we could briefly estimate the loss of each combat side and accordingly get the threat estimation results, given the situation analysis is accomplished.

Crank-Nicholson difference scheme for a stochastic parabolic equation with a dependent operator coefficient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashyralyev, Allaberen; Okur, Ulker

In the present paper, the Crank-Nicolson difference scheme for the numerical solution of the stochastic parabolic equation with the dependent operator coefficient is considered. Theorem on convergence estimates for the solution of this difference scheme is established. In applications, convergence estimates for the solution of difference schemes for the numerical solution of three mixed problems for parabolic equations are obtained. The numerical results are given.

Estimation of lipids and lean mass of migrating sandpipers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Knopf, Fritz L.; Cade, Brian S.

1993-01-01

Estimation of lean mass and lipid levels in birds involves the derivation of predictive equations that relate morphological measurements and, more recently, total body electrical conductivity (TOBEC) indices to known lean and lipid masses. Using cross-validation techniques, we evaluated the ability of several published and new predictive equations to estimate lean and lipid mass of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) and White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis). We also tested ideas of Morton et al. (1991), who stated that current statistical approaches to TOBEC methodology misrepresent precision in estimating body fat. Three published interspecific equations using TOBEC indices predicted lean and lipid masses of our sample of birds with average errors of 8-28% and 53-155%, respectively. A new two-species equation relating lean mass and TOBEC indices revealed average errors of 4.6% and 23.2% in predicting lean and lipid mass, respectively. New intraspecific equations that estimate lipid mass directly from body mass, morphological measurements, and TOBEC indices yielded about a 13% error in lipid estimates. Body mass and morphological measurements explained a substantial portion of the variance (about 90%) in fat mass of both species. Addition of TOBEC indices improved the predictive model more for the smaller than for the larger sandpiper. TOBEC indices explained an additional 7.8% and 2.6% of the variance in fat mass and reduced the minimum breadth of prediction intervals by 0.95 g (32%) and 0.39 g (13%) for Semipalmated and White-rumped Sandpipers, respectively. The breadth of prediction intervals for models used to predict fat levels of individual birds must be considered when interpreting the resultant lipid estimates.

Binomial outcomes in dataset with some clusters of size two: can the dependence of twins be accounted for? A simulation study comparing the reliability of statistical methods based on a dataset of preterm infants.

PubMed

Sauzet, Odile; Peacock, Janet L

2017-07-20

The analysis of perinatal outcomes often involves datasets with some multiple births. These are datasets mostly formed of independent observations and a limited number of clusters of size two (twins) and maybe of size three or more. This non-independence needs to be accounted for in the statistical analysis. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we have previously investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of continuous outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Mixed models have been developed for binomial outcomes but very little is known about their reliability when only a limited number of small clusters are present. Using simulated data based on a dataset of preterm infants we investigated the performance of several approaches to the analysis of binomial outcomes in the presence of some clusters of size two. Logistic models, several methods of estimation for the logistic random intercept models and generalised estimating equations were compared. The presence of even a small percentage of twins means that a logistic regression model will underestimate all parameters but a logistic random intercept model fails to estimate the correlation between siblings if the percentage of twins is too small and will provide similar estimates to logistic regression. The method which seems to provide the best balance between estimation of the standard error and the parameter for any percentage of twins is the generalised estimating equations. This study has shown that the number of covariates or the level two variance do not necessarily affect the performance of the various methods used to analyse datasets containing twins but when the percentage of small clusters is too small, mixed models cannot capture the dependence between siblings.

On the equivalence of the dual-wavelength and polarimetric equations for estimation of the raindrop size distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, Robert; Liao, Liang

2006-01-01

In writing the integral equations for the median mass diameter and particle concentration, or comparable parameters of the raindrop size distribution, it is apparent that when attenuation effects are included, the forms of the equations for polarimetric and dual wavelength radars are identical. In both sets of equations, differences in the backscattering and extinction cross sections appear: in the polarimetric equations, the differences are taken with respect polarization at a fixed frequency while for the dual wavelength equations, the differences are taken with respect to wavelength at a fixed polarization. Because the forms of the equations are the same, the ways in which they can be solved are similar as well. To avoid instabilities in the forward recursion procedure, the equations can be expressed in the form of a final-value. Solving the equations in this way traditionally has required estimates of the path attenuations to the final gate: either the attenuations at horizontal and vertical polarizations at the same frequency or attenuations at two frequencies with the same polarization. This has been done for dual-frequency (air/spaceborne case) and polarimetric radars by the respective use of the surface reference technique and the differential phase shift. An alternative to solving the constrained version of the equations is an iterative procedure recently proposed in which independent estimates of path attenuation are not required. Although the procedure has limitations, it appears to be quite useful. Simulations of the retrievals help clarify the relationship between the constrained and unconstrained approaches and their application to the polarimetric and dual-wavelength equations.

The Effect of Repeaters on Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, HeeKyoung; Kolen, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Test equating might be affected by including in the equating analyses examinees who have taken the test previously. This study evaluated the effect of including such repeaters on Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) equating using a population invariance approach. Three-parameter logistic (3-PL) item response theory (IRT) true score and…

Estimation of Flood Discharges at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Streams in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

2009-01-01

This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for streamgages in and adjacent to New Hampshire and equations for estimating flood discharges at recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in New Hampshire. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 117 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, mean April precipitation, percentage of wetland area, and main channel slope. The average standard error of prediction for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval flood discharges with these equations are 30.0, 30.8, 32.0, 34.2, 36.0, 38.1, and 43.4 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for selected streamgages were computed following the guidelines in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. To determine the flood-discharge exceedence probabilities at streamgages in New Hampshire, a new generalized skew coefficient map covering the State was developed. The standard error of the data on new map is 0.298. To improve estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for 20 streamgages with short-term records (10 to 15 years), record extension using the two-station comparison technique was applied. The two-station comparison method uses data from a streamgage with long-term record to adjust the frequency characteristics at a streamgage with a short-term record. A technique for adjusting a flood-discharge frequency curve computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations is described in this report. Also, a technique is described for estimating flood discharge at a selected recurrence interval for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

A Semi-linear Backward Parabolic Cauchy Problem with Unbounded Coefficients of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman Type and Applications to Optimal Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Addona, Davide, E-mail: d.addona@campus.unimib.it

2015-08-15

We obtain weighted uniform estimates for the gradient of the solutions to a class of linear parabolic Cauchy problems with unbounded coefficients. Such estimates are then used to prove existence and uniqueness of the mild solution to a semi-linear backward parabolic Cauchy problem, where the differential equation is the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation of a suitable optimal control problem. Via backward stochastic differential equations, we show that the mild solution is indeed the value function of the controlled equation and that the feedback law is verified.

Proposed standard-weight equations for brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyatt, M.W.; Hubert, W.A.

2001-01-01

Weight and length data were obtained for 113 populations of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis across the species' geographic range in North America to estimate a standard-weight (Ws) equation for this species. Estimation was done by applying the regression-line-percentile technique to fish of 120-620 mm total length (TL). The proposed metric-unit (g and mm) equation is log10Ws = -5.186 + 3.103 log10TL; the English-unit (lb and in) equivalent is log10Ws = -3.483 + 3.103 log10TL. No systematic length bias was evident in the relative-weight values calculated from these equations.

The Inverse Problem for Confined Aquifer Flow: Identification and Estimation With Extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loaiciga, Hugo A.; MariñO, Miguel A.

1987-01-01

The contributions of this work are twofold. First, a methodology for estimating the elements of parameter matrices in the governing equation of flow in a confined aquifer is developed. The estimation techniques for the distributed-parameter inverse problem pertain to linear least squares and generalized least squares methods. The linear relationship among the known heads and unknown parameters of the flow equation provides the background for developing criteria for determining the identifiability status of unknown parameters. Under conditions of exact or overidentification it is possible to develop statistically consistent parameter estimators and their asymptotic distributions. The estimation techniques, namely, two-stage least squares and three stage least squares, are applied to a specific groundwater inverse problem and compared between themselves and with an ordinary least squares estimator. The three-stage estimator provides the closer approximation to the actual parameter values, but it also shows relatively large standard errors as compared to the ordinary and two-stage estimators. The estimation techniques provide the parameter matrices required to simulate the unsteady groundwater flow equation. Second, a nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation approach to the inverse problem is presented. The statistical properties of maximum likelihood estimators are derived, and a procedure to construct confidence intervals and do hypothesis testing is given. The relative merits of the linear and maximum likelihood estimators are analyzed. Other topics relevant to the identification and estimation methodologies, i.e., a continuous-time solution to the flow equation, coping with noise-corrupted head measurements, and extension of the developed theory to nonlinear cases are also discussed. A simulation study is used to evaluate the methods developed in this study.

Estimation of true height: a study in population-specific methods among young South African adults.

PubMed

Lahner, Christen Renée; Kassier, Susanna Maria; Veldman, Frederick Johannes

2017-02-01

To investigate the accuracy of arm-associated height estimation methods in the calculation of true height compared with stretch stature in a sample of young South African adults. A cross-sectional descriptive design was employed. Pietermaritzburg, Westville and Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2015. Convenience sample (N 900) aged 18-24 years, which included an equal number of participants from both genders (150 per gender) stratified across race (Caucasian, Black African and Indian). Continuous variables that were investigated included: (i) stretch stature; (ii) total armspan; (iii) half-armspan; (iv) half-armspan ×2; (v) demi-span; (vi) demi-span gender-specific equation; (vii) WHO equation; and (viii) WHO-adjusted equations; as well as categorization according to gender and race. Statistical analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics Version 21.0. Significant correlations were identified between gender and height estimation measurements, with males being anatomically larger than females (P<0·001). Significant differences were documented when study participants were stratified according to race and gender (P<0·001). Anatomical similarities were noted between Indians and Black Africans, whereas Caucasians were anatomically different from the other race groups. Arm-associated height estimation methods were able to estimate true height; however, each method was specific to each gender and race group. Height can be calculated by using arm-associated measurements. Although universal equations for estimating true height exist, for the enhancement of accuracy, the use of equations that are race-, gender- and population-specific should be considered.

Estimation of missing water-level data for the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), 2013 update

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petkewich, Matthew D.; Conrads, Paul

2013-01-01

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network is an integrated network of real-time water-level gaging stations, a ground-elevation model, and a water-surface elevation model designed to provide scientists, engineers, and water-resource managers with water-level and water-depth information (1991-2013) for the entire freshwater portion of the Greater Everglades. The U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science provides support for the Everglades Depth Estimation Network in order for the Network to provide quality-assured monitoring data for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In a previous study, water-level estimation equations were developed to fill in missing data to increase the accuracy of the daily water-surface elevation model. During this study, those equations were updated because of the addition and removal of water-level gaging stations, the consistent use of water-level data relative to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, and availability of recent data (March 1, 2006, to September 30, 2011). Up to three linear regression equations were developed for each station by using three different input stations to minimize the occurrences of missing data for an input station. Of the 667 water-level estimation equations developed to fill missing data at 223 stations, more than 72 percent of the equations have coefficients of determination greater than 0.90, and 97 percent have coefficients of determination greater than 0.70.

The Missing Data Assumptions of the NEAT Design and Their Implications for Test Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip; Holland, Paul W.

2010-01-01

The Non-Equivalent groups with Anchor Test (NEAT) design involves "missing data" that are "missing by design." Three nonlinear observed score equating methods used with a NEAT design are the "frequency estimation equipercentile equating" (FEEE), the "chain equipercentile equating" (CEE), and the "item-response-theory observed-score-equating" (IRT…

Peak-flow frequency for tributaries of the Colorado River downstream of Austin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.

1998-01-01

Peak-flow frequency for 38 stations with at least 8 years of data in natural (unregulated and nonurbanized) basins was estimated on the basis of annual peak-streamflow data through water year 1995. Peak-flow frequency represents the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The peak-flow frequency and drainage basin characteristics for the stations were used to develop two sets of regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for tributaries of the Colorado River in the study area. One set of equations was developed for contributing drainage areas less than 32 square miles, and another set was developed for contributing drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. A procedure is presented to estimate the peak discharge at sites where both sets of equations are considered applicable. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent prediction interval for any estimation from the equations.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Body temperatures in dinosaurs: what can growth curves tell us?

PubMed

Griebeler, Eva Maria

2013-01-01

To estimate the body temperature (BT) of seven dinosaurs Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006) used an equation that predicts BT from the body mass and maximum growth rate (MGR) with the latter preserved in ontogenetic growth trajectories (BT-equation). The results of these authors evidence inertial homeothermy in Dinosauria and suggest that, due to overheating, the maximum body size in Dinosauria was ultimately limited by BT. In this paper, I revisit this hypothesis of Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006). I first studied whether BTs derived from the BT-equation of today's crocodiles, birds and mammals are consistent with core temperatures of animals. Second, I applied the BT-equation to a larger number of dinosaurs than Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006) did. In particular, I estimated BT of Archaeopteryx (from two MGRs), ornithischians (two), theropods (three), prosauropods (three), and sauropods (nine). For extant species, the BT value estimated from the BT-equation was a poor estimate of an animal's core temperature. For birds, BT was always strongly overestimated and for crocodiles underestimated; for mammals the accuracy of BT was moderate. I argue that taxon-specific differences in the scaling of MGR (intercept and exponent of the regression line, log-log-transformed) and in the parameterization of the Arrhenius model both used in the BT-equation as well as ecological and evolutionary adaptations of species cause these inaccuracies. Irrespective of the found inaccuracy of BTs estimated from the BT-equation and contrary to the results of Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006) I found no increase in BT with increasing body mass across all dinosaurs (Sauropodomorpha, Sauropoda) studied. This observation questions that, due to overheating, the maximum size in Dinosauria was ultimately limited by BT. However, the general high inaccuracy of dinosaurian BTs derived from the BT-equation makes a reliable test of whether body size in dinosaurs was ultimately limited by overheating impossible.

Body Temperatures in Dinosaurs: What Can Growth Curves Tell Us?

PubMed Central

Griebeler, Eva Maria

2013-01-01

To estimate the body temperature (BT) of seven dinosaurs Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006) used an equation that predicts BT from the body mass and maximum growth rate (MGR) with the latter preserved in ontogenetic growth trajectories (BT-equation). The results of these authors evidence inertial homeothermy in Dinosauria and suggest that, due to overheating, the maximum body size in Dinosauria was ultimately limited by BT. In this paper, I revisit this hypothesis of Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006). I first studied whether BTs derived from the BT-equation of today’s crocodiles, birds and mammals are consistent with core temperatures of animals. Second, I applied the BT-equation to a larger number of dinosaurs than Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006) did. In particular, I estimated BT of Archaeopteryx (from two MGRs), ornithischians (two), theropods (three), prosauropods (three), and sauropods (nine). For extant species, the BT value estimated from the BT-equation was a poor estimate of an animal’s core temperature. For birds, BT was always strongly overestimated and for crocodiles underestimated; for mammals the accuracy of BT was moderate. I argue that taxon-specific differences in the scaling of MGR (intercept and exponent of the regression line, log-log-transformed) and in the parameterization of the Arrhenius model both used in the BT-equation as well as ecological and evolutionary adaptations of species cause these inaccuracies. Irrespective of the found inaccuracy of BTs estimated from the BT-equation and contrary to the results of Gillooly, Alleen, and Charnov (2006) I found no increase in BT with increasing body mass across all dinosaurs (Sauropodomorpha, Sauropoda) studied. This observation questions that, due to overheating, the maximum size in Dinosauria was ultimately limited by BT. However, the general high inaccuracy of dinosaurian BTs derived from the BT-equation makes a reliable test of whether body size in dinosaurs was ultimately limited by overheating impossible. PMID:24204568

On stability of the solutions of inverse problem for determining the right-hand side of a degenerate parabolic equation with two independent variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamynin, V. L.; Bukharova, T. I.

2017-01-01

We prove the estimates of stability with respect to perturbations of input data for the solutions of inverse problems for degenerate parabolic equations with unbounded coefficients. An important feature of these estimates is that the constants in these estimates are written out explicitly by the input data of the problem.

Using an EM Covariance Matrix to Estimate Structural Equation Models with Missing Data: Choosing an Adjusted Sample Size to Improve the Accuracy of Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enders, Craig K.; Peugh, James L.

2004-01-01

Two methods, direct maximum likelihood (ML) and the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, can be used to obtain ML parameter estimates for structural equation models with missing data (MD). Although the 2 methods frequently produce identical parameter estimates, it may be easier to satisfy missing at random assumptions using EM. However, no…

Comparison of estimates of hardwood bole volume using importance sampling, the centroid method, and some taper equations

Treesearch

Harry V., Jr. Wiant; Michael L. Spangler; John E. Baumgras

2002-01-01

Various taper systems and the centroid method were compared to unbiased volume estimates made by importance sampling for 720 hardwood trees selected throughout the state of West Virginia. Only the centroid method consistently gave volumes estimates that did not differ significantly from those made by importance sampling, although some taper equations did well for most...

Estimating parameters for tree basal area growth with a system of equations and seemingly unrelated regressions

Treesearch

Charles E. Rose; Thomas B. Lynch

2001-01-01

A method was developed for estimating parameters in an individual tree basal area growth model using a system of equations based on dbh rank classes. The estimation method developed is a compromise between an individual tree and a stand level basal area growth model that accounts for the correlation between trees within a plot by using seemingly unrelated regression (...

Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

2014-02-01

Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model (Markov) that needs the parameterization of transition probabilities, and only has summary KM plots available.

Determination of the best method to estimate glomerular filtration rate from serum creatinine in adult patients with sickle cell disease: a prospective observational cohort study.

PubMed

Arlet, Jean-Benoît; Ribeil, Jean-Antoine; Chatellier, Gilles; Eladari, Dominique; De Seigneux, Sophie; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Friedlander, Gérard; de Montalembert, Marianne; Pouchot, Jacques; Prié, Dominique; Courbebaisse, Marie

2012-08-06

Sickle cell disease (SCD) leads to tissue hypoxia resulting in chronic organ dysfunction including SCD associated nephropathy. The goal of our study was to determine the best equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in SCD adult patients. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study. Since 2007, all adult SCD patients in steady state, followed in two medical departments, have had their GFR measured using iohexol plasma clearance (gold standard). The Cockcroft-Gault, MDRD-v4, CKP-EPI and finally, MDRD and CKD-EPI equations without adjustment for ethnicity were tested to estimate GFR from serum creatinine. Estimated GFRs were compared to measured GFRs according to the graphical Bland and Altman method. Sixty-four SCD patients (16 men, median age 27.5 years [range 18.0-67.5], 41 with SS-genotype were studied. They were Sub-Saharan Africa and French West Indies natives and predominantly lean (median body mass index: 22 kg/m2 [16-33]). Hyperfiltration (defined as measured GFR >110 mL/min/1.73 m2) was detected in 53.1% of patients. Urinary albumin/creatinine ratio was higher in patients with hyperfiltration than in patients with normal GFR (4.05 mg/mmol [0.14-60] versus 0.4 mg/mmol [0.7-81], p = 0.01). The CKD-EPI equation without adjustment for ethnicity had both the lowest bias and the greatest precision. Differences between estimated GFRs using the CKP-EPI equation and measured GFRs decreased with increasing GFR values, whereas it increased with the Cockcroft-Gault and MDRD-v4 equations. We confirm that SCD patients have a high rate of glomerular hyperfiltration, which is frequently associated with microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria. In non-Afro-American SCD patients, the best method for estimating GFR from serum creatinine is the CKD-EPI equation without adjustment for ethnicity. This equation is particularly accurate to estimate high GFR values, including glomerular hyperfiltration, and thus should be recommended to screen SCD adult patients at high risk for SCD nephropathy.

Alpha models for rotating Navier-Stokes equations in geophysics with nonlinear dispersive regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Bong-Sik

Three dimensional (3D) Navier-Stokes-alpha equations are considered for uniformly rotating geophysical fluid flows (large Coriolis parameter f = 2O). The Navier-Stokes-alpha equations are a nonlinear dispersive regularization of usual Navier-Stokes equations obtained by Lagrangian averaging. The focus is on the existence and global regularity of solutions of the 3D rotating Navier-Stokes-alpha equations and the uniform convergence of these solutions to those of the original 3D rotating Navier-Stokes equations for large Coriolis parameters f as alpha → 0. Methods are based on fast singular oscillating limits and results are obtained for periodic boundary conditions for all domain aspect ratios, including the case of three wave resonances which yields nonlinear "2½-dimensional" limit resonant equations for f → 0. The existence and global regularity of solutions of limit resonant equations is established, uniformly in alpha. Bootstrapping from global regularity of the limit equations, the existence of a regular solution of the full 3D rotating Navier-Stokes-alpha equations for large f for an infinite time is established. Then, the uniform convergence of a regular solution of the 3D rotating Navier-Stokes-alpha equations (alpha ≠ 0) to the one of the original 3D rotating NavierStokes equations (alpha = 0) for f large but fixed as alpha → 0 follows; this implies "shadowing" of trajectories of the limit dynamical systems by those of the perturbed alpha-dynamical systems. All the estimates are uniform in alpha, in contrast with previous estimates in the literature which blow up as alpha → 0. Finally, the existence of global attractors as well as exponential attractors is established for large f and the estimates are uniform in alpha.

Peak oxygen consumption measured during the stair-climbing test in lung resection candidates.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Xiumé, Francesco; Refai, Majed; Salati, Michele; Di Nunzio, Luca; Pompili, Cecilia; Sabbatini, Armando

2010-01-01

The stair-climbing test is commonly used in the preoperative evaluation of lung resection candidates, but it is difficult to standardize and provides little physiologic information on the performance. To verify the association between the altitude and the V(O2peak) measured during the stair-climbing test. 109 consecutive candidates for lung resection performed a symptom-limited stair-climbing test with direct breath-by-breath measurement of V(O2peak) by a portable gas analyzer. Stepwise logistic regression and bootstrap analyses were used to verify the association of several perioperative variables with a V(O2peak) <15 ml/kg/min. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was also performed to develop an equation to estimate V(O2peak) from stair-climbing parameters and other patient-related variables. 56% of patients climbing <14 m had a V(O2peak) <15 ml/kg/min, whereas 98% of those climbing >22 m had a V(O2peak) >15 ml/kg/min. The altitude reached at stair-climbing test resulted in the only significant predictor of a V(O2peak) <15 ml/kg/min after logistic regression analysis. Multiple regression analysis yielded an equation to estimate V(O2peak) factoring altitude (p < 0.0001), speed of ascent (p = 0.005) and body mass index (p = 0.0008). There was an association between altitude and V(O2peak) measured during the stair-climbing test. Most of the patients climbing more than 22 m are able to generate high values of V(O2peak) and can proceed to surgery without any additional tests. All others need to be referred for a formal cardiopulmonary exercise test. In addition, we were able to generate an equation to estimate V(O2peak), which could assist in streamlining the preoperative workup and could be used across different settings to standardize this test. Copyright (c) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A structural equation modelling approach to explore the role of B vitamins and immune markers in lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Baltar, Valéria Troncoso; Xun, Wei W; Johansson, Mattias; Ferrari, Pietro; Chuang, Shu-Chun; Relton, Caroline; Ueland, Per Magne; Midttun, Øivind; Slimani, Nadia; Jenab, Mazda; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Fagherazzi, Guy; Kaaks, Rudolf; Rohrmann, Sabine; Boeing, Heiner; Weikert, Cornelia; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Boshuizen, Hendriek; van Gils, Carla H; Onland-Moret, N Charlotte; Agudo, Antonio; Barricarte, Aurelio; Navarro, Carmen; Rodríguez, Laudina; Castaño, José Maria Huerta; Larrañaga, Nerea; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Allen, Naomi E; Crowe, Francesca; Gallo, Valentina; Norat, Teresa; Krogh, Vittorio; Masala, Giovanna; Panico, Salvatore; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Tumino, Rosario; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Rasmuson, Torgny; Hallmans, Göran; Roswall, Nina; Tjønneland, Anne; Riboli, Elio; Brennan, Paul; Vineis, Paolo

2013-08-01

The one-carbon metabolism (OCM) is considered key in maintaining DNA integrity and regulating gene expression, and may be involved in the process of carcinogenesis. Several B-vitamins and amino acids have been implicated in lung cancer risk, via the OCM directly as well as immune system activation. However it is unclear whether these factors act independently or through complex mechanisms. The current study applies structural equations modelling (SEM) to further disentangle the mechanisms involved in lung carcinogenesis. SEM allows simultaneous estimation of linear relations where a variable can be the outcome in one equation and the predictor in another, as well as allowing estimation using latent variables (factors estimated by correlation matrix). A large number of biomarkers have been analysed from 891 lung cancer cases and 1,747 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Four putative mechanisms in the OCM and immunity were investigated in relation to lung cancer risk: methionine-homocysteine metabolism, folate cycle, transsulfuration, and mechanisms involved in inflammation and immune activation, all adjusted for tobacco exposure. The hypothesized SEM model confirmed a direct and protective effect for factors representing methionine-homocysteine metabolism (p = 0.020) and immune activation (p = 0.021), and an indirect protective effect of folate cycle (p = 0.019), after adjustment for tobacco smoking. In conclusion, our results show that in the investigation of the involvement of the OCM, the folate cycle and immune system in lung carcinogenesis, it is important to consider complex pathways (by applying SEM) rather than the effects of single vitamins or nutrients (e.g. using traditional multiple regression). In our study SEM were able to suggest a greater role of the methionine-homocysteine metabolism and immune activation over other potential mechanisms.

Prognostic value of chronic kidney disease in patients with coronary heart disease: role of estimating equations.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiu-Li; Brenner, Hermann; Koenig, Wolfgang; Rothenbacher, Dietrich

2010-07-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the impact of using different equations for estimating kidney function on CHD is not clear yet. This study described the prognostic value of CKD as defined by various creatinine- (Cr-eGFR) and cystatin C-based estimating (Cys-eGFR) equations and their combinations on subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients with CHD. Cohort study. Patients with coronary heart disease in in-patient rehabilitation and long-term follow-up (mean 63.4 months). 1050 patients with coronary heart disease aged 30-70 years at baseline. CKD was defined as eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (CKD stages 3-5) estimated by three Cr-eGFR equations (Cockroft-Gault equation adjusted for body surface area (CG/BSA), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study (MDRD) equation, CKD-EPIcrea) and by two Cys-eGFR equations (Arnal-Dade equation, CKD-EPIcys) and a combination. The primary endpoint of our study was subsequent CVD events. During follow-up 118 patients (11.2%) experienced the outcome of our study. CKD assessed by the CG/BSA, MDRD, and CKD-EPIcrea equations showed no statistically significant association with subsequent CVD events after adjustment for multiple covariates (hazard ratio (HR) 1.45 [95% CI, 0.81-2.59], HR 1.47 [95% CI, 0.84-2.60], and HR 1.31 [95% CI, 0.72-2.83], respectively). By contrast, the Cys-eGFR equations were much stronger associated with subsequent CVD endpoints (Arnal-Dade: HR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.34-3.04]; CKD-EPIcys HR, 2.22 [95% CI, 1.46-3.37]). The CKD-EPIcys also provided the highest area under the curve value. Our study shows that prevalent CKD is an independent risk factor for subsequent CVD in patients with prevalent CHD and implies that Cys-eGFR equations show a better clinical utility compared to the Cr-eGFR equations. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating soil water evaporation using radar measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadeghi, Ali M.; Scott, H. D.; Waite, W. P.; Asrar, G.

1988-01-01

Field studies were conducted to evaluate the application of radar reflectivity as compared with the shortwave reflectivity (albedo) used in the Idso-Jackson equation for the estimation of daily evaporation under overcast sky and subhumid climatic conditions. Soil water content, water potential, shortwave and radar reflectivity, and soil and air temperatures were monitored during three soil drying cycles. The data from each cycle were used to calculate daily evaporation from the Idso-Jackson equation and from two other standard methods, the modified Penman and plane of zero-flux. All three methods resulted in similar estimates of evaporation under clear sky conditions; however, under overcast sky conditions, evaporation fluxes computed from the Idso-Jackson equation were consistently lower than the other two methods. The shortwave albedo values in the Idso-Jackson equation were then replaced with radar reflectivities and a new set of total daily evaporation fluxes were calculated. This resulted in a significant improvement in computed soil evaporation fluxes from the Idso-Jackson equation, and a better agreement between the three methods under overcast sky conditions.

Development and validation of anthropometric equations to estimate appendicular muscle mass in elderly women.

PubMed

Pereira, Piettra Moura Galvão; da Silva, Giselma Alcântara; Santos, Gilberto Moreira; Petroski, Edio Luiz; Geraldes, Amandio Aristides Rihan

2013-07-02

This study aimed to examine the cross validity of two anthropometric equations commonly used and propose simple anthropometric equations to estimate appendicular muscle mass (AMM) in elderly women. Among 234 physically active and functionally independent elderly women, 101 (60 to 89 years) were selected through simple drawing to compose the study sample. The paired t test and the Pearson correlation coefficient were used to perform cross-validation and concordance was verified by intraclass correction coefficient (ICC) and by the Bland and Altman technique. To propose predictive models, multiple linear regression analysis, anthropometric measures of body mass (BM), height, girth, skinfolds, body mass index (BMI) were used, and muscle perimeters were included in the analysis as independent variables. Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (AMMDXA) was used as criterion measurement. The sample power calculations were carried out by Post Hoc Compute Achieved Power. Sample power values from 0.88 to 0.91 were observed. When compared, the two equations tested differed significantly from the AMMDXA (p <0.001 and p = 0.001). Ten population / specific anthropometric equations were developed to estimate AMM, among them, three equations achieved all validation criteria used: AMM (E2) = 4.150 +0.251 [bodymass (BM)] - 0.411 [bodymass index (BMI)] + 0.011 [Right forearm perimeter (PANTd) 2]; AMM (E3) = 4.087 + 0.255 (BM) - 0.371 (BMI) + 0.011 (PANTd) 2 - 0.035 [thigh skinfold (DCCO)]; MMA (E6) = 2.855 + 0.298 (BM) + 0.019 (Age) - 0,082 [hip circumference (PQUAD)] + 0.400 (PANTd) - 0.332 (BMI). The equations estimated the criterion method (p = 0.056 p = 0.158), and explained from 0.69% to 0.74% of variations observed in AMMDXA with low standard errors of the estimate (1.36 to 1.55 kg) and high concordance (ICC between 0,90 and 0.91 and concordance limits from -2,93 to 2,33 kg). The equations tested were not valid for use in physically active and functionally independent elderly women. The simple anthropometric equations developed in this study showed good practical applicability and high validity to estimate AMM in elderly women.