A new multistage groundwater transport inverse method: presentation, evaluation, and implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderman, Evan R.; Hill, Mary C.

1999-01-01

More computationally efficient methods of using concentration data are needed to estimate groundwater flow and transport parameters. This work introduces and evaluates a three‐stage nonlinear‐regression‐based iterative procedure in which trial advective‐front locations link decoupled flow and transport models. Method accuracy and efficiency are evaluated by comparing results to those obtained when flow‐ and transport‐model parameters are estimated simultaneously. The new method is evaluated as conclusively as possible by using a simple test case that includes distinct flow and transport parameters, but does not include any approximations that are problem dependent. The test case is analytical; the only flow parameter is a constant velocity, and the transport parameters are longitudinal and transverse dispersivity. Any difficulties detected using the new method in this ideal situation are likely to be exacerbated in practical problems. Monte‐Carlo analysis of observation error ensures that no specific error realization obscures the results. Results indicate that, while this, and probably other, multistage methods do not always produce optimal parameter estimates, the computational advantage may make them useful in some circumstances, perhaps as a precursor to using a simultaneous method.

Using Predictive Uncertainty Analysis to Assess Hydrologic Model Performance for a Watershed in Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brannan, K. M.; Somor, A.

2016-12-01

A variety of statistics are used to assess watershed model performance but these statistics do not directly answer the question: what is the uncertainty of my prediction. Understanding predictive uncertainty is important when using a watershed model to develop a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). TMDLs are a key component of the US Clean Water Act and specify the amount of a pollutant that can enter a waterbody when the waterbody meets water quality criteria. TMDL developers use watershed models to estimate pollutant loads from nonpoint sources of pollution. We are developing a TMDL for bacteria impairments in a watershed in the Coastal Range of Oregon. We setup an HSPF model of the watershed and used the calibration software PEST to estimate HSPF hydrologic parameters and then perform predictive uncertainty analysis of stream flow. We used Monte-Carlo simulation to run the model with 1,000 different parameter sets and assess predictive uncertainty. In order to reduce the chance of specious parameter sets, we accounted for the relationships among parameter values by using mathematically-based regularization techniques and an estimate of the parameter covariance when generating random parameter sets. We used a novel approach to select flow data for predictive uncertainty analysis. We set aside flow data that occurred on days that bacteria samples were collected. We did not use these flows in the estimation of the model parameters. We calculated a percent uncertainty for each flow observation based 1,000 model runs. We also used several methods to visualize results with an emphasis on making the data accessible to both technical and general audiences. We will use the predictive uncertainty estimates in the next phase of our work, simulating bacteria fate and transport in the watershed.

Important observations and parameters for a salt water intrusion model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W.B.

2004-01-01

Sensitivity analysis with a density-dependent ground water flow simulator can provide insight and understanding of salt water intrusion calibration problems far beyond what is possible through intuitive analysis alone. Five simple experimental simulations presented here demonstrate this point. Results show that dispersivity is a very important parameter for reproducing a steady-state distribution of hydraulic head, salinity, and flow in the transition zone between fresh water and salt water in a coastal aquifer system. When estimating dispersivity, the following conclusions can be drawn about the data types and locations considered. (1) The "toe" of the transition zone is the most effective location for hydraulic head and salinity observations. (2) Areas near the coastline where submarine ground water discharge occurs are the most effective locations for flow observations. (3) Salinity observations are more effective than hydraulic head observations. (4) The importance of flow observations aligned perpendicular to the shoreline varies dramatically depending on distance seaward from the shoreline. Extreme parameter correlation can prohibit unique estimation of permeability parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and flow parameters such as recharge in a density-dependent ground water flow model when using hydraulic head and salinity observations. Adding flow observations perpendicular to the shoreline in areas where ground water is exchanged with the ocean body can reduce the correlation, potentially resulting in unique estimates of these parameter values. Results are expected to be directly applicable to many complex situations, and have implications for model development whether or not formal optimization methods are used in model calibration.

Important observations and parameters for a salt water intrusion model.

PubMed

Shoemaker, W Barclay

2004-01-01

Sensitivity analysis with a density-dependent ground water flow simulator can provide insight and understanding of salt water intrusion calibration problems far beyond what is possible through intuitive analysis alone. Five simple experimental simulations presented here demonstrate this point. Results show that dispersivity is a very important parameter for reproducing a steady-state distribution of hydraulic head, salinity, and flow in the transition zone between fresh water and salt water in a coastal aquifer system. When estimating dispersivity, the following conclusions can be drawn about the data types and locations considered. (1) The "toe" of the transition zone is the most effective location for hydraulic head and salinity observations. (2) Areas near the coastline where submarine ground water discharge occurs are the most effective locations for flow observations. (3) Salinity observations are more effective than hydraulic head observations. (4) The importance of flow observations aligned perpendicular to the shoreline varies dramatically depending on distance seaward from the shoreline. Extreme parameter correlation can prohibit unique estimation of permeability parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and flow parameters such as recharge in a density-dependent ground water flow model when using hydraulic head and salinity observations. Adding flow observations perpendicular to the shoreline in areas where ground water is exchanged with the ocean body can reduce the correlation, potentially resulting in unique estimates of these parameter values. Results are expected to be directly applicable to many complex situations, and have implications for model development whether or not formal optimization methods are used in model calibration.

A biphasic parameter estimation method for quantitative analysis of dynamic renal scintigraphic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, T. S.; Zhang, Jeff L.; Ong, C. K.; Shuter, B.

2006-06-01

Dynamic renal scintigraphy is an established method in nuclear medicine, commonly used for the assessment of renal function. In this paper, a biphasic model fitting method is proposed for simultaneous estimation of both vascular and parenchymal parameters from renal scintigraphic data. These parameters include the renal plasma flow, vascular and parenchymal mean transit times, and the glomerular extraction rate. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the stability and confidence of the parameter estimates obtained by the proposed biphasic method, before applying the method on actual patient study cases to compare with the conventional fitting approach and other established renal indices. The various parameter estimates obtained using the proposed method were found to be consistent with the respective pathologies of the study cases. The renal plasma flow and extraction rate estimated by the proposed method were in good agreement with those previously obtained using dynamic computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging.

Modelling maximum river flow by using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheong, R. Y.; Gabda, D.

2017-09-01

Analysis of flood trends is vital since flooding threatens human living in terms of financial, environment and security. The data of annual maximum river flows in Sabah were fitted into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) raised naturally when working with GEV distribution. However, previous researches showed that MLE provide unstable results especially in small sample size. In this study, we used different Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based on Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate GEV parameters. Bayesian MCMC method is a statistical inference which studies the parameter estimation by using posterior distribution based on Bayes’ theorem. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to overcome the high dimensional state space faced in Monte Carlo method. This approach also considers more uncertainty in parameter estimation which then presents a better prediction on maximum river flow in Sabah.

Estimating turbulent electrovortex flow parameters hear the dynamo cycle bifurcation point

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zimin, V.D.; Kolpakov, N.Yu.; Khripchenko, S.Yu.

1988-07-01

Models for estimating turbulent electrovortex flow parameters, derived in earlier studies, were delineated and extended in this paper to express those parameters near the dynamo cycle bifurcation point in a spherical cavity. Toroidal and poloidal fields rising from the induction currents within the liquid metal and their electrovortex interactions were calculated. Toroidal field strengthening by the poloidal electrovortex flow, the first part of the dynamo loop, was determined by the viscous dissipation in the liquid metal. The second part of the loop, in which the toroidal field localized in the liquid metal is converted to a poloidal field and emergesmore » from the sphere, was also established. The dissipative effects near the critical magnetic Reynolds number were estimated.« less

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dripps, W.R.; Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation. Copyright ?? 2005 The Author(s).

Using dual-domain advective-transport simulation to reconcile multiple-tracer ages and estimate dual-porosity transport parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, Ward E.; Niel Plummer, L.; Casile, Gerolamo; Busenberg, Ed; Nelms, David L.; Schlosser, Peter

2017-06-01

Dual-domain transport is an alternative conceptual and mathematical paradigm to advection-dispersion for describing the movement of dissolved constituents in groundwater. Here we test the use of a dual-domain algorithm combined with advective pathline tracking to help reconcile environmental tracer concentrations measured in springs within the Shenandoah Valley, USA. The approach also allows for the estimation of the three dual-domain parameters: mobile porosity, immobile porosity, and a domain exchange rate constant. Concentrations of CFC-113, SF6, 3H, and 3He were measured at 28 springs emanating from carbonate rocks. The different tracers give three different mean composite piston-flow ages for all the springs that vary from 5 to 18 years. Here we compare four algorithms that interpret the tracer concentrations in terms of groundwater age: piston flow, old-fraction mixing, advective-flow path modeling, and dual-domain modeling. Whereas the second two algorithms made slight improvements over piston flow at reconciling the disparate piston-flow age estimates, the dual-domain algorithm gave a very marked improvement. Optimal values for the three transport parameters were also obtained, although the immobile porosity value was not well constrained. Parameter correlation and sensitivities were calculated to help quantify the uncertainty. Although some correlation exists between the three parameters being estimated, a watershed simulation of a pollutant breakthrough to a local stream illustrates that the estimated transport parameters can still substantially help to constrain and predict the nature and timing of solute transport. The combined use of multiple environmental tracers with this dual-domain approach could be applicable in a wide variety of fractured-rock settings.

Estimation of suspended-sediment rating curves and mean suspended-sediment loads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.

1991-01-01

A simulation study was done to evaluate: (1) the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates for the bias-corrected, transformed-linear and non-linear models obtained by the method of least squares; (2) the accuracy of mean suspended-sediment loads calculated by the flow-duration, rating-curve method using model parameters obtained by the alternative methods. Parameter estimates obtained by least squares for the bias-corrected, transformed-linear model were considerably more precise than those obtained for the non-linear or weighted non-linear model. The accuracy of parameter estimates obtained for the biascorrected, transformed-linear and weighted non-linear model was similar and was much greater than the accuracy obtained by non-linear least squares. The improved parameter estimates obtained by the biascorrected, transformed-linear or weighted non-linear model yield estimates of mean suspended-sediment load calculated by the flow-duration, rating-curve method that are more accurate and precise than those obtained for the non-linear model.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 2. Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1983-01-01

This paper investigates factors influencing the degree of improvement in estimates of parameters of a nonlinear regression groundwater flow model by incorporating prior information of unknown reliability. Consideration of expected behavior of the regression solutions and results of a hypothetical modeling problem lead to several general conclusions. First, if the parameters are properly scaled, linearized expressions for the mean square error (MSE) in parameter estimates of a nonlinear model will often behave very nearly as if the model were linear. Second, by using prior information, the MSE in properly scaled parameters can be reduced greatly over the MSE of ordinary least squares estimates of parameters. Third, plots of estimated MSE and the estimated standard deviation of MSE versus an auxiliary parameter (the ridge parameter) specifying the degree of influence of the prior information on regression results can help determine the potential for improvement of parameter estimates. Fourth, proposed criteria can be used to make appropriate choices for the ridge parameter and another parameter expressing degree of overall bias in the prior information. Results of a case study of Truckee Meadows, Reno-Sparks area, Washoe County, Nevada, conform closely to the results of the hypothetical problem. In the Truckee Meadows case, incorporation of prior information did not greatly change the parameter estimates from those obtained by ordinary least squares. However, the analysis showed that both sets of estimates are more reliable than suggested by the standard errors from ordinary least squares.

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model -Documentation of the Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF) Package

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderman, E.R.; Hill, M.C.

2000-01-01

This report documents the Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow (HUF) Package for the groundwater modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The HUF Package is an alternative internal flow package that allows the vertical geometry of the system hydrogeology to be defined explicitly within the model using hydrogeologic units that can be different than the definition of the model layers. The HUF Package works with all the processes of MODFLOW-2000. For the Ground-Water Flow Process, the HUF Package calculates effective hydraulic properties for the model layers based on the hydraulic properties of the hydrogeologic units, which are defined by the user using parameters. The hydraulic properties are used to calculate the conductance coefficients and other terms needed to solve the ground-water flow equation. The sensitivity of the model to the parameters defined within the HUF Package input file can be calculated using the Sensitivity Process, using observations defined with the Observation Process. Optimal values of the parameters can be estimated by using the Parameter-Estimation Process. The HUF Package is nearly identical to the Layer-Property Flow (LPF) Package, the major difference being the definition of the vertical geometry of the system hydrogeology. Use of the HUF Package is illustrated in two test cases, which also serve to verify the performance of the package by showing that the Parameter-Estimation Process produces the true parameter values when exact observations are used.

Real-Time Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation without Air Flow Angle Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2010-01-01

A technique for estimating aerodynamic parameters in real time from flight data without air flow angle measurements is described and demonstrated. The method is applied to simulated F-16 data, and to flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Modeling results obtained with the new approach using flight data without air flow angle measurements were compared to modeling results computed conventionally using flight data that included air flow angle measurements. Comparisons demonstrated that the new technique can provide accurate aerodynamic modeling results without air flow angle measurements, which are often difficult and expensive to obtain. Implications for efficient flight testing and flight safety are discussed.

3-D Vector Flow Estimation With Row-Column-Addressed Arrays.

PubMed

Holbek, Simon; Christiansen, Thomas Lehrmann; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Beers, Christopher; Thomsen, Erik Vilain; Jensen, Jorgen Arendt

2016-11-01

Simulation and experimental results from 3-D vector flow estimations for a 62 + 62 2-D row-column (RC) array with integrated apodization are presented. A method for implementing a 3-D transverse oscillation (TO) velocity estimator on a 3-MHz RC array is developed and validated. First, a parametric simulation study is conducted, where flow direction, ensemble length, number of pulse cycles, steering angles, transmit/receive apodization, and TO apodization profiles and spacing are varied, to find the optimal parameter configuration. The performance of the estimator is evaluated with respect to relative mean bias ~B and mean standard deviation ~σ . Second, the optimal parameter configuration is implemented on the prototype RC probe connected to the experimental ultrasound scanner SARUS. Results from measurements conducted in a flow-rig system containing a constant laminar flow and a straight-vessel phantom with a pulsating flow are presented. Both an M-mode and a steered transmit sequence are applied. The 3-D vector flow is estimated in the flow rig for four representative flow directions. In the setup with 90° beam-to-flow angle, the relative mean bias across the entire velocity profile is (-4.7, -0.9, 0.4)% with a relative standard deviation of (8.7, 5.1, 0.8)% for ( v x , v y , v z ). The estimated peak velocity is 48.5 ± 3 cm/s giving a -3% bias. The out-of-plane velocity component perpendicular to the cross section is used to estimate volumetric flow rates in the flow rig at a 90° beam-to-flow angle. The estimated mean flow rate in this setup is 91.2 ± 3.1 L/h corresponding to a bias of -11.1%. In a pulsating flow setup, flow rate measured during five cycles is 2.3 ± 0.1 mL/stroke giving a negative 9.7% bias. It is concluded that accurate 3-D vector flow estimation can be obtained using a 2-D RC-addressed array.

A coupled metabolic-hydraulic model and calibration scheme for estimating of whole-river metabolism during dynamic flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payn, Robert A.; Hall, Robert O Jr.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Poole, Geoff C; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Conventional methods for estimating whole-stream metabolic rates from measured dissolved oxygen dynamics do not account for the variation in solute transport times created by dynamic flow conditions. Changes in flow at hourly time scales are common downstream of hydroelectric dams (i.e. hydropeaking), and hydrologic limitations of conventional metabolic models have resulted in a poor understanding of the controls on biological production in these highly managed river ecosystems. To overcome these limitations, we coupled a two-station metabolic model of dissolved oxygen dynamics with a hydrologic river routing model. We designed calibration and parameter estimation tools to infer values for hydrologic and metabolic parameters based on time series of water quality data, achieving the ultimate goal of estimating whole-river gross primary production and ecosystem respiration during dynamic flow conditions. Our case study data for model design and calibration were collected in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam (Arizona, USA), a large hydropower facility where the mean discharge was 325 m3 s 1 and the average daily coefficient of variation of flow was 0.17 (i.e. the hydropeaking index averaged from 2006 to 2016). We demonstrate the coupled model’s conceptual consistency with conventional models during steady flow conditions, and illustrate the potential bias in metabolism estimates with conventional models during unsteady flow conditions. This effort contributes an approach to solute transport modeling and parameter estimation that allows study of whole-ecosystem metabolic regimes across a more diverse range of hydrologic conditions commonly encountered in streams and rivers.

Divergence-free smoothing for MRV data on stenosed carotid artery phantom flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Chaehyuk; Ko, Seungbin; Song, Simon

2017-11-01

Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry (MRV) is a versatile technique for measuring flow velocity using an MRI machine. It is frequently used for visualization and analysis of blood flows. However, it is difficult to accurately estimate hemodynamics parameters like wall shear stress (WSS) and oscillatory shear index (OSI) due to its low spatial resolution and low signal-to-noise ratio. We suggest a divergence-free smoothing (DFS) method to correct the erroneous velocity vectors obtained with MRV and improve the estimation accuracy of those parameters. Unlike previous studies on DFS for a wall-free flow, we developed a house code to apply a DFS method to a wall-bounded flow. A Hagen-Poiseuille flow and stenosed carotid artery phantom flows were measured with MRV. Each of them was analyzed for validation of the DFS code and confirmation on the accuracy improvement of hemodynamic parameters. We will discuss the effects of DFS on the improvement of the estimation accuracy of velocity vectors, WSS, OSI and etc in detail This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) Grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No. 2016R1A2B3009541).

Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.

2008-01-01

A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

MODFLOW-2000 : the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model--documentation of the Advective-Transport Observation (ADV2) Package

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderman, Evan R.; Hill, Mary Catherine

2001-01-01

Observations of the advective component of contaminant transport in steady-state flow fields can provide important information for the calibration of ground-water flow models. This report documents the Advective-Transport Observation (ADV2) Package, version 2, which allows advective-transport observations to be used in the three-dimensional ground-water flow parameter-estimation model MODFLOW-2000. The ADV2 Package is compatible with some of the features in the Layer-Property Flow and Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow Packages, but is not compatible with the Block-Centered Flow or Generalized Finite-Difference Packages. The particle-tracking routine used in the ADV2 Package duplicates the semi-analytical method of MODPATH, as shown in a sample problem. Particles can be tracked in a forward or backward direction, and effects such as retardation can be simulated through manipulation of the effective-porosity value used to calculate velocity. Particles can be discharged at cells that are considered to be weak sinks, in which the sink applied does not capture all the water flowing into the cell, using one of two criteria: (1) if there is any outflow to a boundary condition such as a well or surface-water feature, or (2) if the outflow exceeds a user specified fraction of the cell budget. Although effective porosity could be included as a parameter in the regression, this capability is not included in this package. The weighted sum-of-squares objective function, which is minimized in the Parameter-Estimation Process, was augmented to include the square of the weighted x-, y-, and z-components of the differences between the simulated and observed advective-front locations at defined times, thereby including the direction of travel as well as the overall travel distance in the calibration process. The sensitivities of the particle movement to the parameters needed to minimize the objective function are calculated for any particle location using the exact sensitivity-equation approach; the equations are derived by taking the partial derivatives of the semi-analytical particle-tracking equation with respect to the parameters. The ADV2 Package is verified by showing that parameter estimation using advective-transport observations produces the true parameter values in a small but complicated test case when exact observations are used. To demonstrate how the ADV2 Package can be used in practice, a field application is presented. In this application, the ADV2 Package is used first in the Sensitivity-Analysis mode of MODFLOW-2000 to calculate measures of the importance of advective-transport observations relative to head-dependent flow observations when either or both are used in conjunction with hydraulic-head observations in a simulation of the sewage-discharge plume at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The ADV2 Package is then used in the Parameter-Estimation mode of MODFLOW-2000 to determine best-fit parameter values. It is concluded that, for this problem, advective-transport observations improved the calibration of the model and the estimation of ground-water flow parameters, and the use of formal parameter-estimation methods and related techniques produced significant insight into the physical system.

Interpretation of Flow Logs from Nevada Test Site Boreholes to Estimate Hydraulic Conductivity Using Numerical Simulations Constrained by Single-Well Aquifer Tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, C. Amanda; Halford, Keith J.; Laczniak, Randell J.

2010-01-01

Hydraulic conductivities of volcanic and carbonate lithologic units at the Nevada Test Site were estimated from flow logs and aquifer-test data. Borehole flow and drawdown were integrated and interpreted using a radial, axisymmetric flow model, AnalyzeHOLE. This integrated approach is used because complex well completions and heterogeneous aquifers and confining units produce vertical flow in the annular space and aquifers adjacent to the wellbore. AnalyzeHOLE simulates vertical flow, in addition to horizontal flow, which accounts for converging flow toward screen ends and diverging flow toward transmissive intervals. Simulated aquifers and confining units uniformly are subdivided by depth into intervals in which the hydraulic conductivity is estimated with the Parameter ESTimation (PEST) software. Between 50 and 150 hydraulic-conductivity parameters were estimated by minimizing weighted differences between simulated and measured flow and drawdown. Transmissivity estimates from single-well or multiple-well aquifer tests were used to constrain estimates of hydraulic conductivity. The distribution of hydraulic conductivity within each lithology had a minimum variance because estimates were constrained with Tikhonov regularization. AnalyzeHOLE simulated hydraulic-conductivity estimates for lithologic units across screened and cased intervals are as much as 100 times less than those estimated using proportional flow-log analyses applied across screened intervals only. Smaller estimates of hydraulic conductivity for individual lithologic units are simulated because sections of the unit behind cased intervals of the wellbore are not assumed to be impermeable, and therefore, can contribute flow to the wellbore. Simulated hydraulic-conductivity estimates vary by more than three orders of magnitude across a lithologic unit, indicating a high degree of heterogeneity in volcanic and carbonate-rock units. The higher water transmitting potential of carbonate-rock units relative to volcanic-rock units is exemplified by the large difference in their estimated maximum hydraulic conductivity; 4,000 and 400 feet per day, respectively. Simulated minimum estimates of hydraulic conductivity are inexact and represent the lower detection limit of the method. Minimum thicknesses of lithologic intervals also were defined for comparing AnalyzeHOLE results to hydraulic properties in regional ground-water flow models.

Delineation and Analysis of Uncertainty of Contributing Areas to Wells at the Southbury Training School, Southbury, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Stone, Janet Radway; Mullaney, John R.

2000-01-01

Contributing areas to public-supply wells at the Southbury Training School in Southbury, Connecticut, were mapped by simulating ground-water flow in stratified glacial deposits in the lower Transylvania Brook watershed. The simulation used nonlinear regression methods and informational statistics to estimate parameters of a ground-water flow model using drawdown data from an aquifer test. The goodness of fit of the model and the uncertainty associated with model predictions were statistically measured. A watershed-scale model, depicting large-scale ground-water flow in the Transylvania Brook watershed, was used to estimate the distribution of groundwater recharge. Estimates of recharge from 10 small basins in the watershed differed on the basis of the drainage characteristics of each basin. Small basins having well-defined stream channels contributed less ground-water recharge than basins having no defined channels because potential ground-water recharge was carried away in the stream channel. Estimates of ground-water recharge were used in an aquifer-scale parameter-estimation model. Seven variations of the ground-water-flow system were posed, each representing the ground-water-flow system in slightly different but realistic ways. The model that most closely reproduced measured hydraulic heads and flows with realistic parameter values was selected as the most representative of the ground-water-flow system and was used to delineate boundaries of the contributing areas. The model fit revealed no systematic model error, which indicates that the model is likely to represent the major characteristics of the actual system. Parameter values estimated during the simulation are as follows: horizontal hydraulic conductivity of coarse-grained deposits, 154 feet per day; vertical hydraulic conductivity of coarse-grained deposits, 0.83 feet per day; horizontal hydraulic conductivity of fine-grained deposits, 29 feet per day; specific yield, 0.007; specific storage, 1.6E-05. Average annual recharge was estimated using the watershed-scale model with no parameter estimation and was determined to be 24 inches per year in the valley areas and 9 inches per year in the upland areas. The parameter estimates produced in the model are similar to expected values, with two exceptions. The estimated specific yield of the stratified glacial deposits is lower than expected, which could be caused by the layered nature of the deposits. The recharge estimate produced by the model was also lower?about 32 percent of the average annual rate. This could be caused by the timing of the aquifer test with respect to the annual cycle of ground-water recharge, and by some of the expected recharge going to parts of the flow system that were not simulated. The data used in the calibration were collected during an aquifer test from October 30 to November 4, 1996. The model fit was very good, as indicated by the correlation coefficient (0.999) between the weighted simulated values and weighted observed values. The model also reproduced the general rise in ground-water levels caused by ground-water recharge and the cyclic fluctuations caused by pumping prior to the aquifer test. Contributing areas were delineated using a particle-tracking procedure. Hypothetical particles of water were introduced at each model cell in the top layer and were tracked to determine whether or not they reached the pumped well. A deterministic contributing area was calculated using the calibrated model, and a probabilistic contributing area was calculated using a Monte Carlo approach along with the calibrated model. The Monte Carlo simulation was done, using the parameter variance/covariance matrix generated by the regression model, to estimate probabilities associated with the contributing area to the wells. The probabilities arise from uncertainty in the estimated parameter values, which in turn arise from the adequacy of the data available to comprehensively describe the groundwater-flow sy

Multilocus methods for estimating population sizes, migration rates and divergence time, with applications to the divergence of Drosophila pseudoobscura and D. persimilis.

PubMed Central

Hey, Jody; Nielsen, Rasmus

2004-01-01

The genetic study of diverging, closely related populations is required for basic questions on demography and speciation, as well as for biodiversity and conservation research. However, it is often unclear whether divergence is due simply to separation or whether populations have also experienced gene flow. These questions can be addressed with a full model of population separation with gene flow, by applying a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the posterior probability distribution of model parameters. We have generalized this method and made it applicable to data from multiple unlinked loci. These loci can vary in their modes of inheritance, and inheritance scalars can be implemented either as constants or as parameters to be estimated. By treating inheritance scalars as parameters it is also possible to address variation among loci in the impact via linkage of recurrent selective sweeps or background selection. These methods are applied to a large multilocus data set from Drosophila pseudoobscura and D. persimilis. The species are estimated to have diverged approximately 500,000 years ago. Several loci have nonzero estimates of gene flow since the initial separation of the species, with considerable variation in gene flow estimates among loci, in both directions between the species. PMID:15238526

An initial investigation of multidimensional flow and transverse mixing characteristics of the Ohio River near Cincinnati, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.

2009-01-01

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport models were applied to a 34-mile reach of the Ohio River from Cincinnati, Ohio, upstream to Meldahl Dam near Neville, Ohio. The hydrodynamic model was based on the generalized finite-element hydrodynamic code RMA2 to simulate depth-averaged velocities and flow depths. The generalized water-quality transport code RMA4 was applied to simulate the transport of vertically mixed, water-soluble constituents that have a density similar to that of water. Boundary conditions for hydrodynamic simulations included water levels at the U.S. Geological Survey water-level gaging station near Cincinnati, Ohio, and flow estimates based on a gate rating at Meldahl Dam. Flows estimated on the basis of the gate rating were adjusted with limited flow-measurement data to more nearly reflect current conditions. An initial calibration of the hydrodynamic model was based on data from acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys and water-level information. These data provided flows, horizontal water velocities, water levels, and flow depths needed to estimate hydrodynamic parameters related to channel resistance to flow and eddy viscosity. Similarly, dye concentration measurements from two dye-injection sites on each side of the river were used to develop initial estimates of transport parameters describing mixing and dye-decay characteristics needed for the transport model. A nonlinear regression-based approach was used to estimate parameters in the hydrodynamic and transport models. Parameters describing channel resistance to flow (Manning’s “n”) were estimated in areas of deep and shallow flows as 0.0234, and 0.0275, respectively. The estimated RMA2 Peclet number, which is used to dynamically compute eddy-viscosity coefficients, was 38.3, which is in the range of 15 to 40 that is typically considered appropriate. Resulting hydrodynamic simulations explained 98.8 percent of the variability in depth-averaged flows, 90.0 percent of the variability in water levels, 93.5 percent of the variability in flow depths, and 92.5 percent of the variability in velocities. Estimates of the water-quality-transport-model parameters describing turbulent mixing characteristics converged to different values for the two dye-injection reaches. For the Big Indian Creek dye-injection study, an RMA4 Peclet number of 37.2 was estimated, which was within the recommended range of 15 to 40, and similar to the RMA2 Peclet number. The estimated dye-decay coefficient was 0.323. Simulated dye concentrations explained 90.2 percent of the variations in measured dye concentrations for the Big Indian Creek injection study. For the dye-injection reach starting downstream from Twelvemile Creek, however, an RMA4 Peclet number of 173 was estimated, which is far outside the recommended range. Simulated dye concentrations were similar to measured concentration distributions at the first four transects downstream from the dye-injection site that were considered vertically mixed. Farther downstream, however, simulated concentrations did not match the attenuation of maximum concentrations or cross-channel transport of dye that were measured. The difficulty of determining a consistent RMA4 Peclet was related to the two-dimension model assumption that velocity distributions are closely approximated by their depth-averaged values. Analysis of velocity data showed significant variations in velocity direction with depth in channel reaches with curvature. Channel irregularities (including curvatures, depth irregularities, and shoreline variations) apparently produce transverse currents that affect the distribution of constituents, but are not fully accounted for in a two-dimensional model. The two-dimensional flow model, using channel resistance to flow parameters of 0.0234 and 0.0275 for deep and shallow areas, respectively, and an RMA2 Peclet number of 38.3, and the RMA4 transport model with a Peclet number of 37.2, may have utility for emergency-planning purposes. Emergency-response efforts would be enhanced by continuous streamgaging records downstream from Meldahl Dam, real-time water-quality monitoring, and three-dimensional modeling. Decay coefficients are constituent specific.

Cost and performance model for redox flow batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanathan, Vilayanur; Crawford, Alasdair; Stephenson, David; Kim, Soowhan; Wang, Wei; Li, Bin; Coffey, Greg; Thomsen, Ed; Graff, Gordon; Balducci, Patrick; Kintner-Meyer, Michael; Sprenkle, Vincent

2014-02-01

A cost model is developed for all vanadium and iron-vanadium redox flow batteries. Electrochemical performance modeling is done to estimate stack performance at various power densities as a function of state of charge and operating conditions. This is supplemented with a shunt current model and a pumping loss model to estimate actual system efficiency. The operating parameters such as power density, flow rates and design parameters such as electrode aspect ratio and flow frame channel dimensions are adjusted to maximize efficiency and minimize capital costs. Detailed cost estimates are obtained from various vendors to calculate cost estimates for present, near-term and optimistic scenarios. The most cost-effective chemistries with optimum operating conditions for power or energy intensive applications are determined, providing a roadmap for battery management systems development for redox flow batteries. The main drivers for cost reduction for various chemistries are identified as a function of the energy to power ratio of the storage system. Levelized cost analysis further guide suitability of various chemistries for different applications.

Erosion estimation of guide vane end clearance in hydraulic turbines with sediment water flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Wei; Kang, Jingbo; Wang, Jie; Peng, Guoyi; Li, Lianyuan; Su, Min

2018-04-01

The end surface of guide vane or head cover is one of the most serious parts of sediment erosion for high-head hydraulic turbines. In order to investigate the relationship between erosion depth of wall surface and the characteristic parameter of erosion, an estimative method including a simplified flow model and a modificatory erosion calculative function is proposed in this paper. The flow between the end surfaces of guide vane and head cover is simplified as a clearance flow around a circular cylinder with a backward facing step. Erosion characteristic parameter of csws3 is calculated with the mixture model for multiphase flow and the renormalization group (RNG) k-𝜀 turbulence model under the actual working conditions, based on which, erosion depths of guide vane and head cover end surfaces are estimated with a modification of erosion coefficient K. The estimation results agree well with the actual situation. It is shown that the estimative method is reasonable for erosion prediction of guide vane and can provide a significant reference to determine the optimal maintenance cycle for hydraulic turbine in the future.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

Accurate motion parameter estimation for colonoscopy tracking using a regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianfei; Subramanian, Kalpathi R.; Yoo, Terry S.

2010-03-01

Co-located optical and virtual colonoscopy images have the potential to provide important clinical information during routine colonoscopy procedures. In our earlier work, we presented an optical flow based algorithm to compute egomotion from live colonoscopy video, permitting navigation and visualization of the corresponding patient anatomy. In the original algorithm, motion parameters were estimated using the traditional Least Sum of squares(LS) procedure which can be unstable in the context of optical flow vectors with large errors. In the improved algorithm, we use the Least Median of Squares (LMS) method, a robust regression method for motion parameter estimation. Using the LMS method, we iteratively analyze and converge toward the main distribution of the flow vectors, while disregarding outliers. We show through three experiments the improvement in tracking results obtained using the LMS method, in comparison to the LS estimator. The first experiment demonstrates better spatial accuracy in positioning the virtual camera in the sigmoid colon. The second and third experiments demonstrate the robustness of this estimator, resulting in longer tracked sequences: from 300 to 1310 in the ascending colon, and 410 to 1316 in the transverse colon.

An EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Process Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Taehun

2010-01-01

In this dissertation, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed and implemented to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and the associated standard error estimates characterizing temporal flows for the latent variable time series following stationary vector ARMA processes, as well as the parameters defining the…

A Two-Stage Algorithm for Origin-Destination Matrices Estimation Considering Dynamic Dispersion Parameter for Route Choice

PubMed Central

Wang, Yong; Ma, Xiaolei; Liu, Yong; Gong, Ke; Henricakson, Kristian C.; Xu, Maozeng; Wang, Yinhai

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a two-stage algorithm to simultaneously estimate origin-destination (OD) matrix, link choice proportion, and dispersion parameter using partial traffic counts in a congested network. A non-linear optimization model is developed which incorporates a dynamic dispersion parameter, followed by a two-stage algorithm in which Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation and a Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) assignment model are iteratively applied until the convergence is reached. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the proposed approach is implemented in a hypothetical network using input data with high error, and tested under a range of variation coefficients. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of the estimated OD demand and link flows are used to evaluate the model estimation results. The results indicate that the estimated dispersion parameter theta is insensitive to the choice of variation coefficients. The proposed approach is shown to outperform two established OD estimation methods and produce parameter estimates that are close to the ground truth. In addition, the proposed approach is applied to an empirical network in Seattle, WA to validate the robustness and practicality of this methodology. In summary, this study proposes and evaluates an innovative computational approach to accurately estimate OD matrices using link-level traffic flow data, and provides useful insight for optimal parameter selection in modeling travelers’ route choice behavior. PMID:26761209

Estimation of Rheological Properties of Viscous Debris Flow Using a Belt Conveyor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hübl, J.; Steinwendtner, H.

2000-09-01

Rheological parameters of viscous debris flows are influenced by a great amount of factors and are therefore extremely difficult to estimate. Because of this uncertainties a belt conveyor (conveyor channel) was constructed to measure flow behaviour and rheological properties of natural debris flow material. The upward movement of the smooth rubberised belt between fixed lateral plastic walls causes a stationary wave relative to these bends. This special experimental design enables to study behaviour of viscous ebris flow material with maximum grain diameters up to 20 mm within several minutes and to hold measuring equipment very simple. The conveyor channel was calibrated first with Xanthan, a natural polysaccharide used as thickener in food technology, whose rheological properties are similar to viscous debris flow material. In a second step natural debris flow material was investigated. Velocities and rheological parameters were measured with varying solid concentration and slope of the channel. In cases where concentration of coarse particles exceed around 15% by volume the conveyor channel obtains an alternative to expensive commercial viscometers for determination of rheological parameters of viscous debris flows.

Propagation of a channelized debris-flow: experimental investigation and parameters identification for numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Termini, Donatella

2013-04-01

Recent catastrophic events due to intense rainfalls have mobilized large amount of sediments causing extensive damages in vast areas. These events have highlighted how debris-flows runout estimations are of crucial importance to delineate the potentially hazardous areas and to make reliable assessment of the level of risk of the territory. Especially in recent years, several researches have been conducted in order to define predicitive models. But, existing runout estimation methods need input parameters that can be difficult to estimate. Recent experimental researches have also allowed the assessment of the physics of the debris flows. But, the major part of the experimental studies analyze the basic kinematic conditions which determine the phenomenon evolution. Experimental program has been recently conducted at the Hydraulic laboratory of the Department of Civil, Environmental, Aerospatial and of Materials (DICAM) - University of Palermo (Italy). The experiments, carried out in a laboratory flume appositely constructed, were planned in order to evaluate the influence of different geometrical parameters (such as the slope and the geometrical characteristics of the confluences to the main channel) on the propagation phenomenon of the debris flow and its deposition. Thus, the aim of the present work is to give a contribution to defining input parameters in runout estimation by numerical modeling. The propagation phenomenon is analyzed for different concentrations of solid materials. Particular attention is devoted to the identification of the stopping distance of the debris flow and of the involved parameters (volume, angle of depositions, type of material) in the empirical predictive equations available in literature (Rickenmanm, 1999; Bethurst et al. 1997). Bethurst J.C., Burton A., Ward T.J. 1997. Debris flow run-out and landslide sediment delivery model tests. Journal of hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, 123(5), 419-429 Rickenmann D. 1999. Empirical relationships fro debris flow. Natural hazards, 19, pp. 47-77

Functional test of pedotransfer functions to predict water flow and solute transport with the dual-permeability model MACRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeys, J.; Larsbo, M.; Bergström, L.; Brown, C. D.; Coquet, Y.; Jarvis, N. J.

2012-07-01

Estimating pesticide leaching risks at the regional scale requires the ability to completely parameterise a pesticide fate model using only survey data, such as soil and land-use maps. Such parameterisations usually rely on a set of lookup tables and (pedo)transfer functions, relating elementary soil and site properties to model parameters. The aim of this paper is to describe and test a complete set of parameter estimation algorithms developed for the pesticide fate model MACRO, which accounts for preferential flow in soil macropores. We used tracer monitoring data from 16 lysimeter studies, carried out in three European countries, to evaluate the ability of MACRO and this "blind parameterisation" scheme to reproduce measured solute leaching at the base of each lysimeter. We focused on the prediction of early tracer breakthrough due to preferential flow, because this is critical for pesticide leaching. We then calibrated a selected number of parameters in order to assess to what extent the prediction of water and solute leaching could be improved. Our results show that water flow was generally reasonably well predicted (median model efficiency, ME, of 0.42). Although the general pattern of solute leaching was reproduced well by the model, the overall model efficiency was low (median ME = -0.26) due to errors in the timing and magnitude of some peaks. Preferential solute leaching at early pore volumes was also systematically underestimated. Nonetheless, the ranking of soils according to solute loads at early pore volumes was reasonably well estimated (concordance correlation coefficient, CCC, between 0.54 and 0.72). Moreover, we also found that ignoring macropore flow leads to a significant deterioration in the ability of the model to reproduce the observed leaching pattern, and especially the early breakthrough in some soils. Finally, the calibration procedure showed that improving the estimation of solute transport parameters is probably more important than the estimation of water flow parameters. Overall, the results are encouraging for the use of this modelling set-up to estimate pesticide leaching risks at the regional-scale, especially where the objective is to identify vulnerable soils and "source" areas of contamination.

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters. Correlation coefficients among optimised model parameters and total precipitation P, mean temperature T and mean flow Q are calculated to give an insight into parameter dependence on the hydrometeorological drivers. The results reveal high sensitivity of almost all model parameters towards calibration period. The highest variability is displayed by the refreezing coefficient, water holding capacity, and temperature gradient. The only statistically significant (decreasing) trend is detected in the evapotranspiration reduction threshold. Statistically significant correlation is detected between the precipitation gradient and precipitation depth, and between the time-area histogram base and flows. All other correlations are not statistically significant, implying that changes in optimised parameters cannot generally be linked to the changes in P, T or Q. As for the model performance, the model reproduces the observed runoff satisfactorily, though the runoff is slightly overestimated in wet periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranges from 0.44 to 0.79. Higher NSE values are obtained over wetter periods, what is supported by statistically significant correlation between NSE and flows. Overall, no systematic variations in parameters or in model performance are detected. Parameter variability may therefore rather be attributed to errors in data or inadequacies in the model structure. Further research is required to examine the impact of the calibration strategy or model structure on the variability in optimised parameters in time.

[Quantitative Evaluation of Intracardiac Blood Flow by Left Ventricle Dynamic Anatovy Based On Exact Solutions of Non-Stationary Navier-Stocks Equations for Selforganized tornado-Like Flows of Viscous Incompresssible Fluid].

PubMed

Talygin, E A; Zazybo, N A; Zhorzholiany, S T; Krestinich, I M; Mironov, A A; Kiknadze, G I; Bokerya, L A; Gorodkov, A Y; Makarenko, V N; Alexandrova, S A

2016-01-01

New approach to intracardiac blood flow condition analysis based on geometric parameters of left ventricle flow channel has been suggested. Parameters, that used in this method, follow from exact solutions of nonstationary Navier-Stocks equations for selforganized tornado-like flows of viscous incompressible fluid. The main advantage of this method is considering dynamic anatomy of intracardiac cavity and trabeculae relief of left ventricle streamlined surface, both registered in a common mri-process, as flow condition indicator. Calculated quantity options that characterizes blood flow condition can be use as diagnostic criterias for estimation of violation in blood circulation function which entails heart ejection reduction. Developed approach allows to clarify heart jet organization mechanism and estimate the share of the tornado-like flow self-organization in heart ejection structure.

Regional groundwater characteristics and hydraulic conductivity based on geological units in Korean peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Suk, H.

2011-12-01

In this study, about 2,000 deep observation wells, stream and/or river distribution, and river's density were analyzed to identify regional groundwater flow trend, based on the regional groundwater survey of four major river watersheds including Geum river, Han river, Youngsan-Seomjin river, and Nakdong river in Korea. Hydrogeologial data were collected to analyze regional groundwater flow characteristics according to geological units. Additionally, hydrological soil type data were collected to estimate direct runoff through SCS-CN method. Temperature and precipitation data were used to quantify infiltration rate. The temperature and precipitation data were also used to quantify evaporation by Thornthwaite method and to evaluate groundwater recharge, respectively. Understanding the regional groundwater characteristics requires the database of groundwater flow parameters, but most hydrogeological data include limited information such as groundwater level and well configuration. In this study, therefore, groundwater flow parameters such as hydraulic conductivities or transmissivities were estimated using observed groundwater level by inverse model, namely PEST (Non-linear Parameter ESTimation). Since groundwater modeling studies have some uncertainties in data collection, conceptualization, and model results, model calibration should be performed. The calibration may be manually performed by changing parameters step by step, or various parameters are simultaneously changed by automatic procedure using PEST program. In this study, both manual and automatic procedures were employed to calibrate and estimate hydraulic parameter distributions. In summary, regional groundwater survey data obtained from four major river watersheds and various data of hydrology, meteorology, geology, soil, and topography in Korea were used to estimate hydraulic conductivities using PEST program. Especially, in order to estimate hydraulic conductivity effectively, it is important to perform in such a way that areas of same or similar hydrogeological characteristics should be grouped into zones. Keywords: regional groundwater, database, hydraulic conductivity, PEST, Korean peninsular Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Radioactive Waste Management of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) grant funded by the Korea government Ministry of Knowledge Economy (2011T100200152)

Estimation of inhalation flow profile using audio-based methods to assess inhaler medication adherence.

PubMed

Taylor, Terence E; Lacalle Muls, Helena; Costello, Richard W; Reilly, Richard B

2018-01-01

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are required to inhale forcefully and deeply to receive medication when using a dry powder inhaler (DPI). There is a clinical need to objectively monitor the inhalation flow profile of DPIs in order to remotely monitor patient inhalation technique. Audio-based methods have been previously employed to accurately estimate flow parameters such as the peak inspiratory flow rate of inhalations, however, these methods required multiple calibration inhalation audio recordings. In this study, an audio-based method is presented that accurately estimates inhalation flow profile using only one calibration inhalation audio recording. Twenty healthy participants were asked to perform 15 inhalations through a placebo Ellipta™ DPI at a range of inspiratory flow rates. Inhalation flow signals were recorded using a pneumotachograph spirometer while inhalation audio signals were recorded simultaneously using the Inhaler Compliance Assessment device attached to the inhaler. The acoustic (amplitude) envelope was estimated from each inhalation audio signal. Using only one recording, linear and power law regression models were employed to determine which model best described the relationship between the inhalation acoustic envelope and flow signal. Each model was then employed to estimate the flow signals of the remaining 14 inhalation audio recordings. This process repeated until each of the 15 recordings were employed to calibrate single models while testing on the remaining 14 recordings. It was observed that power law models generated the highest average flow estimation accuracy across all participants (90.89±0.9% for power law models and 76.63±2.38% for linear models). The method also generated sufficient accuracy in estimating inhalation parameters such as peak inspiratory flow rate and inspiratory capacity within the presence of noise. Estimating inhaler inhalation flow profiles using audio based methods may be clinically beneficial for inhaler technique training and the remote monitoring of patient adherence.

Estimation of inhalation flow profile using audio-based methods to assess inhaler medication adherence

PubMed Central

Lacalle Muls, Helena; Costello, Richard W.; Reilly, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are required to inhale forcefully and deeply to receive medication when using a dry powder inhaler (DPI). There is a clinical need to objectively monitor the inhalation flow profile of DPIs in order to remotely monitor patient inhalation technique. Audio-based methods have been previously employed to accurately estimate flow parameters such as the peak inspiratory flow rate of inhalations, however, these methods required multiple calibration inhalation audio recordings. In this study, an audio-based method is presented that accurately estimates inhalation flow profile using only one calibration inhalation audio recording. Twenty healthy participants were asked to perform 15 inhalations through a placebo Ellipta™ DPI at a range of inspiratory flow rates. Inhalation flow signals were recorded using a pneumotachograph spirometer while inhalation audio signals were recorded simultaneously using the Inhaler Compliance Assessment device attached to the inhaler. The acoustic (amplitude) envelope was estimated from each inhalation audio signal. Using only one recording, linear and power law regression models were employed to determine which model best described the relationship between the inhalation acoustic envelope and flow signal. Each model was then employed to estimate the flow signals of the remaining 14 inhalation audio recordings. This process repeated until each of the 15 recordings were employed to calibrate single models while testing on the remaining 14 recordings. It was observed that power law models generated the highest average flow estimation accuracy across all participants (90.89±0.9% for power law models and 76.63±2.38% for linear models). The method also generated sufficient accuracy in estimating inhalation parameters such as peak inspiratory flow rate and inspiratory capacity within the presence of noise. Estimating inhaler inhalation flow profiles using audio based methods may be clinically beneficial for inhaler technique training and the remote monitoring of patient adherence. PMID:29346430

Eruption mass estimation using infrasound waveform inversion and ash and gas measurements: Evaluation at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fee, David; Izbekov, Pavel; Kim, Keehoon; Yokoo, Akihiko; Lopez, Taryn; Prata, Fred; Kazahaya, Ryunosuke; Nakamichi, Haruhisa; Iguchi, Masato

2017-12-01

Eruption mass and mass flow rate are critical parameters for determining the aerial extent and hazard of volcanic emissions. Infrasound waveform inversion is a promising technique to quantify volcanic emissions. Although topography may substantially alter the infrasound waveform as it propagates, advances in wave propagation modeling and station coverage permit robust inversion of infrasound data from volcanic explosions. The inversion can estimate eruption mass flow rate and total eruption mass if the flow density is known. However, infrasound-based eruption flow rates and mass estimates have yet to be validated against independent measurements, and numerical modeling has only recently been applied to the inversion technique. Here we present a robust full-waveform acoustic inversion method, and use it to calculate eruption flow rates and masses from 49 explosions from Sakurajima Volcano, Japan. Six infrasound stations deployed from 12-20 February 2015 recorded the explosions. We compute numerical Green's functions using 3-D Finite Difference Time Domain modeling and a high-resolution digital elevation model. The inversion, assuming a simple acoustic monopole source, provides realistic eruption masses and excellent fit to the data for the majority of the explosions. The inversion results are compared to independent eruption masses derived from ground-based ash collection and volcanic gas measurements. Assuming realistic flow densities, our infrasound-derived eruption masses for ash-rich eruptions compare favorably to the ground-based estimates, with agreement ranging from within a factor of two to one order of magnitude. Uncertainties in the time-dependent flow density and acoustic propagation likely contribute to the mismatch between the methods. Our results suggest that realistic and accurate infrasound-based eruption mass and mass flow rate estimates can be computed using the method employed here. If accurate volcanic flow parameters are known, application of this technique could be broadly applied to enable near real-time calculation of eruption mass flow rates and total masses. These critical input parameters for volcanic eruption modeling and monitoring are not currently available.

Parameter estimation of an ARMA model for river flow forecasting using goal programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Kourosh; Eslami, H. R.; Kahawita, Rene

2006-11-01

SummaryRiver flow forecasting constitutes one of the most important applications in hydrology. Several methods have been developed for this purpose and one of the most famous techniques is the Auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model. In the research reported here, the goal was to minimize the error for a specific season of the year as well as for the complete series. Goal programming (GP) was used to estimate the ARMA model parameters. Shaloo Bridge station on the Karun River with 68 years of observed stream flow data was selected to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results when compared with the usual method of maximum likelihood estimation were favorable with respect to the new proposed algorithm.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF TWO-FLUID CAPILLARY PRESSURE-SATURATION AND PERMEABILITY FUNCTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Capillary pressure and permeability functions are crucial to the quantitative description of subsurface flow and transport. Earlier work has demonstrated the feasibility of using the inverse parameter estimation approach in determining these functions if both capillary pressure ...

Development and validation of chemistry agnostic flow battery cost performance model and application to nonaqueous electrolyte systems: Chemistry agnostic flow battery cost performance model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crawford, Alasdair; Thomsen, Edwin; Reed, David

2016-04-20

A chemistry agnostic cost performance model is described for a nonaqueous flow battery. The model predicts flow battery performance by estimating the active reaction zone thickness at each electrode as a function of current density, state of charge, and flow rate using measured data for electrode kinetics, electrolyte conductivity, and electrode-specific surface area. Validation of the model is conducted using a 4kW stack data at various current densities and flow rates. This model is used to estimate the performance of a nonaqueous flow battery with electrode and electrolyte properties used from the literature. The optimized cost for this system ismore » estimated for various power and energy levels using component costs provided by vendors. The model allows optimization of design parameters such as electrode thickness, area, flow path design, and operating parameters such as power density, flow rate, and operating SOC range for various application duty cycles. A parametric analysis is done to identify components and electrode/electrolyte properties with the highest impact on system cost for various application durations. A pathway to 100$kWh -1 for the storage system is identified.« less

Error estimation for CFD aeroheating prediction under rarefied flow condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yazhong; Gao, Zhenxun; Jiang, Chongwen; Lee, Chunhian

2014-12-01

Both direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods have become widely used for aerodynamic prediction when reentry vehicles experience different flow regimes during flight. The implementation of slip boundary conditions in the traditional CFD method under Navier-Stokes-Fourier (NSF) framework can extend the validity of this approach further into transitional regime, with the benefit that much less computational cost is demanded compared to DSMC simulation. Correspondingly, an increasing error arises in aeroheating calculation as the flow becomes more rarefied. To estimate the relative error of heat flux when applying this method for a rarefied flow in transitional regime, theoretical derivation is conducted and a dimensionless parameter ɛ is proposed by approximately analyzing the ratio of the second order term to first order term in the heat flux expression in Burnett equation. DSMC simulation for hypersonic flow over a cylinder in transitional regime is performed to test the performance of parameter ɛ, compared with two other parameters, Knρ and MaṡKnρ.

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

WTAQ - A computer program for aquifer-test analysis of confined and unconfined aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, P.M.; Moench, A.F.

2004-01-01

Computer program WTAQ was developed to implement a Laplace-transform analytical solution for axial-symmetric flow to a partially penetrating, finite-diameter well in a homogeneous and anisotropic unconfined (water-table) aquifer. The solution accounts for wellbore storage and skin effects at the pumped well, delayed response at an observation well, and delayed or instantaneous drainage from the unsaturated zone. For the particular case of zero drainage from the unsaturated zone, the solution simplifies to that of axial-symmetric flow in a confined aquifer. WTAQ calculates theoretical time-drawdown curves for the pumped well and observation wells and piezometers. The theoretical curves are used with measured time-drawdown data to estimate hydraulic parameters of confined or unconfined aquifers by graphical type-curve methods or by automatic parameter-estimation methods. Parameters that can be estimated are horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. A sample application illustrates use of WTAQ for estimating hydraulic parameters of a hypothetical, unconfined aquifer by type-curve methods. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Estimation Of Rheological Law By Inverse Method From Flow And Temperature Measurements With An Extrusion Die

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pujos, Cyril; Regnier, Nicolas; Mousseau, Pierre; Defaye, Guy; Jarny, Yvon

2007-05-01

Simulation quality is determined by the knowledge of the parameters of the model. Yet the rheological models for polymer are often not very accurate, since the viscosity measurements are made under approximations as homogeneous temperature and empirical corrections as Bagley one. Furthermore rheological behaviors are often traduced by mathematical laws as the Cross or the Carreau-Yasuda ones, whose parameters are fitted from viscosity values, obtained with corrected experimental data, and not appropriate for each polymer. To correct these defaults, a table-like rheological model is proposed. This choice makes easier the estimation of model parameters, since each parameter has the same order of magnitude. As the mathematical shape of the model is not imposed, the estimation process is appropriate for each polymer. The proposed method consists in minimizing the quadratic norm of the difference between calculated variables and measured data. In this study an extrusion die is simulated, in order to provide us temperature along the extrusion channel, pressure and flow references. These data allow to characterize thermal transfers and flow phenomena, in which the viscosity is implied. Furthermore the different natures of data allow to estimate viscosity for a large range of shear rates. The estimated rheological model improves the agreement between measurements and simulation: for numerical cases, the error on the flow becomes less than 0.1% for non-Newtonian rheology. This method couples measurements and simulation, constitutes a very accurate mean of rheology determination, and allows to improve the prediction abilities of the model.

Field-Scale Evaluation of Infiltration Parameters From Soil Texture for Hydrologic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springer, Everett P.; Cundy, Terrance W.

1987-02-01

Recent interest in predicting soil hydraulic properties from simple physical properties such as texture has major implications in the parameterization of physically based models of surface runoff. This study was undertaken to (1) compare, on a field scale, soil hydraulic parameters predicted from texture to those derived from field measurements and (2) compare simulated overland flow response using these two parameter sets. The parameters for the Green-Ampt infiltration equation were obtained from field measurements and using texture-based predictors for two agricultural fields, which were mapped as single soil units. Results of the analyses were that (1) the mean and variance of the field-based parameters were not preserved by the texture-based estimates, (2) spatial and cross correlations between parameters were induced by the texture-based estimation procedures, (3) the overland flow simulations using texture-based parameters were significantly different than those from field-based parameters, and (4) simulations using field-measured hydraulic conductivities and texture-based storage parameters were very close to simulations using only field-based parameters.

Towards designing an optical-flow based colonoscopy tracking algorithm: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianfei; Subramanian, Kalpathi R.; Yoo, Terry S.

2013-03-01

Automatic co-alignment of optical and virtual colonoscopy images can supplement traditional endoscopic procedures, by providing more complete information of clinical value to the gastroenterologist. In this work, we present a comparative analysis of our optical flow based technique for colonoscopy tracking, in relation to current state of the art methods, in terms of tracking accuracy, system stability, and computational efficiency. Our optical-flow based colonoscopy tracking algorithm starts with computing multi-scale dense and sparse optical flow fields to measure image displacements. Camera motion parameters are then determined from optical flow fields by employing a Focus of Expansion (FOE) constrained egomotion estimation scheme. We analyze the design choices involved in the three major components of our algorithm: dense optical flow, sparse optical flow, and egomotion estimation. Brox's optical flow method,1 due to its high accuracy, was used to compare and evaluate our multi-scale dense optical flow scheme. SIFT6 and Harris-affine features7 were used to assess the accuracy of the multi-scale sparse optical flow, because of their wide use in tracking applications; the FOE-constrained egomotion estimation was compared with collinear,2 image deformation10 and image derivative4 based egomotion estimation methods, to understand the stability of our tracking system. Two virtual colonoscopy (VC) image sequences were used in the study, since the exact camera parameters(for each frame) were known; dense optical flow results indicated that Brox's method was superior to multi-scale dense optical flow in estimating camera rotational velocities, but the final tracking errors were comparable, viz., 6mm vs. 8mm after the VC camera traveled 110mm. Our approach was computationally more efficient, averaging 7.2 sec. vs. 38 sec. per frame. SIFT and Harris affine features resulted in tracking errors of up to 70mm, while our sparse optical flow error was 6mm. The comparison among egomotion estimation algorithms showed that our FOE-constrained egomotion estimation method achieved the optimal balance between tracking accuracy and robustness. The comparative study demonstrated that our optical-flow based colonoscopy tracking algorithm maintains good accuracy and stability for routine use in clinical practice.

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meresa, Hadush K.; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the Biala Tarnowska River at Koszyce gauging station, south Poland. The approach followed is based on several climate projections obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, raw and bias-corrected realizations of catchment precipitation, and flow simulations derived using multiple hydrological model parameter sets. The projections cover the 21st century. Three sources of uncertainty are considered: one related to climate projection ensemble spread, the second related to the uncertainty in hydrological model parameters and the third related to the error in fitting theoretical distribution models to annual extreme flow series. The uncertainty of projected extreme indices related to hydrological model parameters was conditioned on flow observations from the reference period using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, with separate criteria for high- and low-flow extremes. Extreme (low and high) flow quantiles were estimated using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at different return periods and were based on two different lengths of the flow time series. A sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model parameters can be larger than the climate model variability and the distribution fit uncertainty for the low-flow extremes whilst for the high-flow extremes higher uncertainty is observed from climate models than from hydrological parameter and distribution fit uncertainties. This implies that ignoring one of the three uncertainty sources may cause great risk to future hydrological extreme adaptations and water resource planning and management.

Utilizing High-Performance Computing to Investigate Parameter Sensitivity of an Inversion Model for Vadose Zone Flow and Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Z.; Ward, A. L.; Fang, Y.; Yabusaki, S.

2011-12-01

High-resolution geologic models have proven effective in improving the accuracy of subsurface flow and transport predictions. However, many of the parameters in subsurface flow and transport models cannot be determined directly at the scale of interest and must be estimated through inverse modeling. A major challenge, particularly in vadose zone flow and transport, is the inversion of the highly-nonlinear, high-dimensional problem as current methods are not readily scalable for large-scale, multi-process models. In this paper we describe the implementation of a fully automated approach for addressing complex parameter optimization and sensitivity issues on massively parallel multi- and many-core systems. The approach is based on the integration of PNNL's extreme scale Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (eSTOMP) simulator, which uses the Global Array toolkit, with the Beowulf-Cluster inspired parallel nonlinear parameter estimation software, BeoPEST in the MPI mode. In the eSTOMP/BeoPEST implementation, a pre-processor generates all of the PEST input files based on the eSTOMP input file. Simulation results for comparison with observations are extracted automatically at each time step eliminating the need for post-process data extractions. The inversion framework was tested with three different experimental data sets: one-dimensional water flow at Hanford Grass Site; irrigation and infiltration experiment at the Andelfingen Site; and a three-dimensional injection experiment at Hanford's Sisson and Lu Site. Good agreements are achieved in all three applications between observations and simulations in both parameter estimates and water dynamics reproduction. Results show that eSTOMP/BeoPEST approach is highly scalable and can be run efficiently with hundreds or thousands of processors. BeoPEST is fault tolerant and new nodes can be dynamically added and removed. A major advantage of this approach is the ability to use high-resolution geologic models to preserve the spatial structure in the inverse model, which leads to better parameter estimates and improved predictions when using the inverse-conditioned realizations of parameter fields.

The use of multiobjective calibration and regional sensitivity analysis in simulating hyporheic exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naranjo, Ramon C.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Stone, Mark; Davis, Clinton; McKay, Alan

2012-01-01

We describe an approach for calibrating a two-dimensional (2-D) flow model of hyporheic exchange using observations of temperature and pressure to estimate hydraulic and thermal properties. A longitudinal 2-D heat and flow model was constructed for a riffle-pool sequence to simulate flow paths and flux rates for variable discharge conditions. A uniform random sampling approach was used to examine the solution space and identify optimal values at local and regional scales. We used a regional sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of parameter correlation and nonuniqueness commonly encountered in multidimensional modeling. The results from this study demonstrate the ability to estimate hydraulic and thermal parameters using measurements of temperature and pressure to simulate exchange and flow paths. Examination of the local parameter space provides the potential for refinement of zones that are used to represent sediment heterogeneity within the model. The results indicate vertical hydraulic conductivity was not identifiable solely using pressure observations; however, a distinct minimum was identified using temperature observations. The measured temperature and pressure and estimated vertical hydraulic conductivity values indicate the presence of a discontinuous low-permeability deposit that limits the vertical penetration of seepage beneath the riffle, whereas there is a much greater exchange where the low-permeability deposit is absent. Using both temperature and pressure to constrain the parameter estimation process provides the lowest overall root-mean-square error as compared to using solely temperature or pressure observations. This study demonstrates the benefits of combining continuous temperature and pressure for simulating hyporheic exchange and flow in a riffle-pool sequence. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Measurement of absolute myocardial blood flow in humans using dynamic cardiac SPECT and 99mTc-tetrofosmin: Method and validation

DOE PAGES

Shrestha, Uttam; Sciammarella, Maria; Alhassen, Fares; ...

2015-12-29

The objective of this study was to measure myocardial blood flow (MBF) in humans using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and dynamic single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Dynamic SPECT using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) was performed on a group of 16 patients. The SPECT data were reconstructed using a 4D-spatiotemporal iterative reconstruction method. The data corresponding to 9 patients were used to determine the flow-extraction curve for 99mTc-tefrofosmin while data from the remaining 7 patients were used for method validation. The nonlinear tracer correction parameters A and B for 99mTc-tefrofosmin were estimated for the 9 patients by fitting the flow-extraction curvemore » K 1 = F(1–Aexp(–B/F)) for K 1 values estimated with 99mTc-tefrofosmin using SPECT and MBF values estimated with 13N-NH 3 using PET. These parameters were then used to calculate MBF and coronary flow reserve (CFR) in three coronary territories (LAD, RCA, and LCX) using SPECT for an independent cohort of 7 patients. The results were then compared with that estimated with 13N-NH 3 PET. The flow-dependent permeability surface-area product (PS) for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was also estimated. The estimated flow-extraction parameters for 99mTc-tefrofosmin were found to be A = 0.91 ± 0.11, B = 0.34 ± 0.20 (R 2 = 0.49). The range of MBF in LAD, RCA, and LCX was 0.44-3.81 mL/min/g. The MBF between PET and SPECT in the group of independent cohort of 7 patients showed statistically significant correlation, r = 0.71 (P < .001). However, the corresponding CFR correlation was moderate r = 0.39 yet statistically significant (P = .037). The PS for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was (0.019 ± 0.10)*MBF + (0.32 ± 0.16). Dynamic cardiac SPECT using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and a clinical two-headed SPECT/CT scanner can be a useful tool for estimation of MBF.« less

Measurement of absolute myocardial blood flow in humans using dynamic cardiac SPECT and 99mTc-tetrofosmin: Method and validation.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam; Sciammarella, Maria; Alhassen, Fares; Yeghiazarians, Yerem; Ellin, Justin; Verdin, Emily; Boyle, Andrew; Seo, Youngho; Botvinick, Elias H; Gullberg, Grant T

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to measure myocardial blood flow (MBF) in humans using 99m Tc-tetrofosmin and dynamic single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Dynamic SPECT using 99m Tc-tetrofosmin and dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) was performed on a group of 16 patients. The SPECT data were reconstructed using a 4D-spatiotemporal iterative reconstruction method. The data corresponding to 9 patients were used to determine the flow-extraction curve for 99m Tc-tefrofosmin while data from the remaining 7 patients were used for method validation. The nonlinear tracer correction parameters A and B for 99m Tc-tefrofosmin were estimated for the 9 patients by fitting the flow-extraction curve [Formula: see text] for K 1 values estimated with 99m Tc-tefrofosmin using SPECT and MBF values estimated with 13 N-NH 3 using PET. These parameters were then used to calculate MBF and coronary flow reserve (CFR) in three coronary territories (LAD, RCA, and LCX) using SPECT for an independent cohort of 7 patients. The results were then compared with that estimated with 13 N-NH 3 PET. The flow-dependent permeability surface-area product (PS) for 99m Tc-tefrofosmin was also estimated. The estimated flow-extraction parameters for 99m Tc-tefrofosmin were found to be A = 0.91 ± 0.11, B = 0.34 ± 0.20 (R 2  = 0.49). The range of MBF in LAD, RCA, and LCX was 0.44-3.81 mL/min/g. The MBF between PET and SPECT in the group of independent cohort of 7 patients showed statistically significant correlation, r = 0.71 (P < .001). However, the corresponding CFR correlation was moderate r = 0.39 yet statistically significant (P = .037). The PS for 99m Tc-tefrofosmin was (0.019 ± 0.10)*MBF + (0.32 ± 0.16). Dynamic cardiac SPECT using 99m Tc-tetrofosmin and a clinical two-headed SPECT/CT scanner can be a useful tool for estimation of MBF.

Measurement of Absolute Myocardial Blood Flow in Humans Using Dynamic Cardiac SPECT and 99mTc-tetrofosmin: Method and Validation

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam; Sciammarella, Maria; Alhassen, Fares; Yeghiazarians, Yerem; Ellin, Justin; Verdin, Emily; Boyle, Andrew; Seo, Youngho; Botvinick, Elias H.; Gullberg, Grant T.

2015-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to measure myocardial blood flow (MBF) in humans using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and dynamic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Methods Dynamic SPECT using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) was performed on a group of 16 patients. The SPECT data were reconstructed using a 4D-spatiotemporal iterative reconstruction method. The data corresponding to 9 patients were used to determine the flow-extraction curve for 99mTc-tefrofosmin while data from the remaining 7 patients were used for method validation. The nonlinear tracer correction parameters A and B for 99mTc-tefrofosmin were estimated for the 9 patients by fitting the flow-extraction curve K1=F(1−Aexp(−BF)) for K1 values estimated with 99mTc-tefrofosmin using SPECT and MBF values estimated with 13N-NH3 using PET. These parameters were then used to calculate MBF and coronary flow reserve (CFR) in three coronary territories (LAD, RCA, and LCX) using SPECT for an independent cohort of 7 patients. The results were then compared with that estimated with 13N-NH3 PET. The flow dependent permeability surface-area product (PS) for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was also estimated. Results The estimated flow extraction parameters for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was found to be A=0.91±0.11, B=0.34±0.20 (R2 = 0.49). The range of MBF in LAD, RCA, and LCX was 0.44 ml/min/g to 3.81 ml/min/g. The MBF between PET and SPECT in the group of independent cohort of 7 patients showed statistically significant correlation, r = 0.71 (p < 0.001). However, the corresponding CFR correlation was moderate r = 0.39 yet statistically significant (p = 0.037). The PS for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was (0.091 ± 0.10) * MBF = (0.32 ± 0.16). Conclusions Dynamic cardiac SPECT using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and a clinical two-headed SPECT/CT scanner can be a useful tool for estimation of MBF. PMID:26715603

Measurement of absolute myocardial blood flow in humans using dynamic cardiac SPECT and 99mTc-tetrofosmin: Method and validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shrestha, Uttam; Sciammarella, Maria; Alhassen, Fares

The objective of this study was to measure myocardial blood flow (MBF) in humans using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and dynamic single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Dynamic SPECT using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) was performed on a group of 16 patients. The SPECT data were reconstructed using a 4D-spatiotemporal iterative reconstruction method. The data corresponding to 9 patients were used to determine the flow-extraction curve for 99mTc-tefrofosmin while data from the remaining 7 patients were used for method validation. The nonlinear tracer correction parameters A and B for 99mTc-tefrofosmin were estimated for the 9 patients by fitting the flow-extraction curvemore » K 1 = F(1–Aexp(–B/F)) for K 1 values estimated with 99mTc-tefrofosmin using SPECT and MBF values estimated with 13N-NH 3 using PET. These parameters were then used to calculate MBF and coronary flow reserve (CFR) in three coronary territories (LAD, RCA, and LCX) using SPECT for an independent cohort of 7 patients. The results were then compared with that estimated with 13N-NH 3 PET. The flow-dependent permeability surface-area product (PS) for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was also estimated. The estimated flow-extraction parameters for 99mTc-tefrofosmin were found to be A = 0.91 ± 0.11, B = 0.34 ± 0.20 (R 2 = 0.49). The range of MBF in LAD, RCA, and LCX was 0.44-3.81 mL/min/g. The MBF between PET and SPECT in the group of independent cohort of 7 patients showed statistically significant correlation, r = 0.71 (P < .001). However, the corresponding CFR correlation was moderate r = 0.39 yet statistically significant (P = .037). The PS for 99mTc-tefrofosmin was (0.019 ± 0.10)*MBF + (0.32 ± 0.16). Dynamic cardiac SPECT using 99mTc-tetrofosmin and a clinical two-headed SPECT/CT scanner can be a useful tool for estimation of MBF.« less

Optimal estimation of spatially variable recharge and transmissivity fields under steady-state groundwater flow. Part 2. Case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Wendy D.; Neff, Christina R.

1994-05-01

The first-order analytical solution of the inverse problem for estimating spatially variable recharge and transmissivity under steady-state groundwater flow, developed in Part 1 is applied to the Upper Floridan Aquifer in NE Florida. Parameters characterizing the statistical structure of the log-transmissivity and head fields are estimated from 152 measurements of transmissivity and 146 measurements of hydraulic head available in the study region. Optimal estimates of the recharge, transmissivity and head fields are produced throughout the study region by conditioning on the nearest 10 available transmissivity measurements and the nearest 10 available head measurements. Head observations are shown to provide valuable information for estimating both the transmissivity and the recharge fields. Accurate numerical groundwater model predictions of the aquifer flow system are obtained using the optimal transmissivity and recharge fields as input parameters, and the optimal head field to define boundary conditions. For this case study, both the transmissivity field and the uncertainty of the transmissivity field prediction are poorly estimated, when the effects of random recharge are neglected.

The importance of diverse data types to calibrate a watershed model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Feinstein, D.T.; Pint, C.D.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake water plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more detailed parameterization capable of resolving model objectives with well-constrained parameter values. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance and the depth of the lake water plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target overall, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that led to correct distribution of flow between sub-basins and the regional system during model calibration. The use of an automated parameter estimation code: (1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and (2) allowed assessment of the influence of observed targets on the calibration process. The model calibration required the use of a 'universal' parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described in this paper help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of different transport observations on inverse modeling results: case study of a long-term groundwater tracer test monitored at high resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasa, Ehsan; Foglia, Laura; Mackay, Douglas M.; Scow, Kate M.

2013-11-01

Conservative tracer experiments can provide information useful for characterizing various subsurface transport properties. This study examines the effectiveness of three different types of transport observations for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of a three-dimensional site-specific groundwater flow and transport model: conservative tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), first temporal moments of BTCs ( m 1), and tracer cumulative mass discharge ( M d) through control planes combined with hydraulic head observations ( h). High-resolution data obtained from a 410-day controlled field experiment at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (USA), have been used. In this experiment, bromide was injected to create two adjacent plumes monitored at six different transects (perpendicular to groundwater flow) with a total of 162 monitoring wells. A total of 133 different observations of transient hydraulic head, 1,158 of BTC concentration, 23 of first moment, and 36 of mass discharge were used for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of nine flow and transport parameters. The importance of each group of transport observations in estimating these parameters was evaluated using sensitivity analysis, and five out of nine parameters were calibrated against these data. Results showed the advantages of using temporal moment of conservative tracer BTCs and mass discharge as observations for inverse modeling.

[Ultrasonographic study of blood flow in the renal arteries of patients with arterial hypertension].

PubMed

Makarenko, E S; Dombrovskiĭ, V I; Nelasov, N Iu

2012-01-01

Vascular duplex ultrasound duplex with simultaneous ECG registration was made to estimate the quantitative and time parameters of blood flow in the renal arteries with grade 1-2 arterial hypertension. There were increases in vascular resistance indices and acceleration phase index and a reduction in systolic phase index. There were correlations of the time parameters of blood flow in the renal arteries with age and lipidogram values.

Time Domain Estimation of Arterial Parameters using the Windkessel Model and the Monte Carlo Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gostuski, Vladimir; Pastore, Ignacio; Rodriguez Palacios, Gaspar; Vaca Diez, Gustavo; Moscoso-Vasquez, H. Marcela; Risk, Marcelo

2016-04-01

Numerous parameter estimation techniques exist for characterizing the arterial system using electrical circuit analogs. However, they are often limited by their requirements and usually high computational burdain. Therefore, a new method for estimating arterial parameters based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. A three element Windkessel model was used to represent the arterial system. The approach was to reduce the error between the calculated and physiological aortic pressure by randomly generating arterial parameter values, while keeping constant the arterial resistance. This last value was obtained for each subject using the arterial flow, and was a necessary consideration in order to obtain a unique set of values for the arterial compliance and peripheral resistance. The estimation technique was applied to in vivo data containing steady beats in mongrel dogs, and it reliably estimated Windkessel arterial parameters. Further, this method appears to be computationally efficient for on-line time-domain estimation of these parameters.

Estimation and upscaling of dual-permeability model parameters for the transport of E.coli D21g in soils with preferential flow

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dual-permeability models are increasingly used to quantify the transport of solutes and microorganisms in soils with preferential flow. An ability to accurately determine the model parameters and their variation with preferential pathway characteristics is crucial for predicting the transport of mi...

Global optimization for motion estimation with applications to ultrasound videos of carotid artery plaques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murillo, Sergio; Pattichis, Marios; Soliz, Peter; Barriga, Simon; Loizou, C. P.; Pattichis, C. S.

2010-03-01

Motion estimation from digital video is an ill-posed problem that requires a regularization approach. Regularization introduces a smoothness constraint that can reduce the resolution of the velocity estimates. The problem is further complicated for ultrasound videos (US), where speckle noise levels can be significant. Motion estimation using optical flow models requires the modification of several parameters to satisfy the optical flow constraint as well as the level of imposed smoothness. Furthermore, except in simulations or mostly unrealistic cases, there is no ground truth to use for validating the velocity estimates. This problem is present in all real video sequences that are used as input to motion estimation algorithms. It is also an open problem in biomedical applications like motion analysis of US of carotid artery (CA) plaques. In this paper, we study the problem of obtaining reliable ultrasound video motion estimates for atherosclerotic plaques for use in clinical diagnosis. A global optimization framework for motion parameter optimization is presented. This framework uses actual carotid artery motions to provide optimal parameter values for a variety of motions and is tested on ten different US videos using two different motion estimation techniques.

Assessment of reduced-order unscented Kalman filter for parameter identification in 1-dimensional blood flow models using experimental data.

PubMed

Caiazzo, A; Caforio, Federica; Montecinos, Gino; Muller, Lucas O; Blanco, Pablo J; Toro, Eluterio F

2016-10-25

This work presents a detailed investigation of a parameter estimation approach on the basis of the reduced-order unscented Kalman filter (ROUKF) in the context of 1-dimensional blood flow models. In particular, the main aims of this study are (1) to investigate the effects of using real measurements versus synthetic data for the estimation procedure (i.e., numerical results of the same in silico model, perturbed with noise) and (2) to identify potential difficulties and limitations of the approach in clinically realistic applications to assess the applicability of the filter to such setups. For these purposes, the present numerical study is based on a recently published in vitro model of the arterial network, for which experimental flow and pressure measurements are available at few selected locations. To mimic clinically relevant situations, we focus on the estimation of terminal resistances and arterial wall parameters related to vessel mechanics (Young's modulus and wall thickness) using few experimental observations (at most a single pressure or flow measurement per vessel). In all cases, we first perform a theoretical identifiability analysis on the basis of the generalized sensitivity function, comparing then the results owith the ROUKF, using either synthetic or experimental data, to results obtained using reference parameters and to available measurements. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Thermospheric neutral density estimates from heater-induced ion up-flow at EISCAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosch, Michael; Ogawa, Yasunobu; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Vickers, Hannah; Blagoveshchenskaya, Nataly

We exploit a recently-developed technique to estimate the upper thermospheric neutral density using measurements of ionospheric plasma parameters made by the EISCAT UHF radar during ionospheric modification experiments. Heating the electrons changes the balance between upward plasma pressure gradient and downward gravity, resulting in ion up-flow up to ~200 m/s. This field-aligned flow is retarded by collisions, which is directly related to the neutral density. Whilst the ion up-flow is consistent with the plasma pressure gradient, the estimated thermospheric neutral density depends on the assumed composition, which varies with altitude. Results in the topside ionosphere are presented.

Parameter estimation and actuator characteristics of hybrid magnetic bearings for axial flow blood pump applications.

PubMed

Lim, Tau Meng; Cheng, Shanbao; Chua, Leok Poh

2009-07-01

Axial flow blood pumps are generally smaller as compared to centrifugal pumps. This is very beneficial because they can provide better anatomical fit in the chest cavity, as well as lower the risk of infection. This article discusses the design, levitated responses, and parameter estimation of the dynamic characteristics of a compact hybrid magnetic bearing (HMB) system for axial flow blood pump applications. The rotor/impeller of the pump is driven by a three-phase permanent magnet brushless and sensorless motor. It is levitated by two HMBs at both ends in five degree of freedom with proportional-integral-derivative controllers, among which four radial directions are actively controlled and one axial direction is passively controlled. The frequency domain parameter estimation technique with statistical analysis is adopted to validate the stiffness and damping coefficients of the HMB system. A specially designed test rig facilitated the estimation of the bearing's coefficients in air-in both the radial and axial directions. Experimental estimation showed that the dynamic characteristics of the HMB system are dominated by the frequency-dependent stiffness coefficients. By injecting a multifrequency excitation force signal onto the rotor through the HMBs, it is noticed in the experimental results the maximum displacement linear operating range is 20% of the static eccentricity with respect to the rotor and stator gap clearance. The actuator gain was also successfully calibrated and may potentially extend the parameter estimation technique developed in the study of identification and monitoring of the pump's dynamic properties under normal operating conditions with fluid.

Application of a parameter-estimation technique to modeling the regional aquifer underlying the eastern Snake River plain, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garabedian, Stephen P.

1986-01-01

A nonlinear, least-squares regression technique for the estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to the regional aquifer underlying the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho. The technique uses a computer program to simulate two-dimensional, steady-state ground-water flow. Hydrologic data for the 1980 water year were used to calculate recharge rates, boundary fluxes, and spring discharges. Ground-water use was estimated from irrigated land maps and crop consumptive-use figures. These estimates of ground-water withdrawal, recharge rates, and boundary flux, along with leakance, were used as known values in the model calibration of transmissivity. Leakance values were adjusted between regression solutions by comparing model-calculated to measured spring discharges. In other simulations, recharge and leakance also were calibrated as prior-information regression parameters, which limits the variation of these parameters using a normalized standard error of estimate. Results from a best-fit model indicate a wide areal range in transmissivity from about 0.05 to 44 feet squared per second and in leakance from about 2.2x10 -9 to 6.0 x 10 -8 feet per second per foot. Along with parameter values, model statistics also were calculated, including the coefficient of correlation between calculated and observed head (0.996), the standard error of the estimates for head (40 feet), and the parameter coefficients of variation (about 10-40 percent). Additional boundary flux was added in some areas during calibration to achieve proper fit to ground-water flow directions. Model fit improved significantly when areas that violated model assumptions were removed. It also improved slightly when y-direction (northwest-southeast) transmissivity values were larger than x-direction (northeast-southwest) transmissivity values. The model was most sensitive to changes in recharge, and in some areas, to changes in transmissivity, particularly near the spring discharge area from Milner Dam to King Hill.

Magma rheology from 3D geometry of martian lava flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allemand, P.; Deschamps, A.; Lesaout, M.; Delacourt, C.; Quantin, C.; Clenet, H.

2012-04-01

Volcanism is an important geologic agent which has been recently active at the surface of Mars. The composition of individual lava flows is difficult to infer from spectroscopic data because of the absence of crystallized minerals and the possible cover of the flows by dust. The 3D geometry of lava flows provides an interesting alternative to infer the chemical composition of lavas and effusion rates. Indeed, chemical composition exerts a strong control on the viscosity and yield strength of the magma and global geometry of lava flow reflects its emplacement rate. Until recently, these studies where realized from 2D data. The third dimension, which is a key parameter, was deduced or supposed from local shadow measurements on MGS Themis IR images with an uncertainty of more than 500%. Recent CTX data (MRO mission) allow to compute Digital Elevation Model at a resolution of 1 or 2 pixels (5 to 10 m) with the help of Isis and the Ames Stereo Pipeline pipe line. The CTX images are first transformed in format readable by Isis. The external geometric parameters of the CTX camera are computed and added to the image header with Isis. During a correlation phase, the homologous pixels are searched on the pair of stereo images. Finally, the DEM is computed from the position of the homologous pixels and the geometrical parameters of the CTX camera. Twenty DEM have been computed from stereo images showing lava flows of various ages on the region of Cerberus, Elyseum, Daedalia and Amazonis planitia. The 3D parameters of the lava flows have been measured on the DEMs and tested against shadows measurement. These 3D parameters have been inverted to estimate the viscosity and the yield strength of the flow. The effusion rate has also been estimated. These parameters have been compared to those of similar lava flows of the East Pacific rise.

Density-based global sensitivity analysis of sheet-flow travel time: Kinematic wave-based formulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Seiyed Mossa; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Simmons, Craig T.

2018-04-01

Despite advancements in developing physics-based formulations to estimate the sheet-flow travel time (tSHF), the quantification of the relative impacts of influential parameters on tSHF has not previously been considered. In this study, a brief review of the physics-based formulations to estimate tSHF including kinematic wave (K-W) theory in combination with Manning's roughness (K-M) and with Darcy-Weisbach friction formula (K-D) over single and multiple planes is provided. Then, the relative significance of input parameters to the developed approaches is quantified by a density-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The performance of K-M considering zero-upstream and uniform flow depth (so-called K-M1 and K-M2), and K-D formulae to estimate the tSHF over single plane surface were assessed using several sets of experimental data collected from the previous studies. The compatibility of the developed models to estimate tSHF over multiple planes considering temporal rainfall distributions of Natural Resources Conservation Service, NRCS (I, Ia, II, and III) are scrutinized by several real-world examples. The results obtained demonstrated that the main controlling parameters of tSHF through K-D and K-M formulae are the length of surface plane (mean sensitivity index T̂i = 0.72) and flow resistance (mean T̂i = 0.52), respectively. Conversely, the flow temperature and initial abstraction ratio of rainfall have the lowest influence on tSHF (mean T̂i is 0.11 and 0.12, respectively). The significant role of the flow regime on the estimation of tSHF over a single and a cascade of planes are also demonstrated. Results reveal that the K-D formulation provides more precise tSHF over the single plane surface with an average percentage of error, APE equal to 9.23% (the APE for K-M1 and K-M2 formulae were 13.8%, and 36.33%, respectively). The superiority of Manning-jointed formulae in estimation of tSHF is due to the incorporation of effects from different flow regimes as flow moves downgradient that is affected by one or more factors including high excess rainfall intensities, low flow resistance, high degrees of imperviousness, long surfaces, steep slope, and domination of rainfall distribution as NRCS Type I, II, or III.

Variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum routing method considering lateral flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Basant; Perumal, Muthiah; Bardossy, Andras

2015-04-01

The fully mass conservative variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum (VPMM) method recently proposed by Perumal and Price (2013) for routing floods in channels and rivers without considering lateral flow is extended herein for accounting uniformly distributed lateral flow contribution along the reach. The proposed procedure is applied for studying flood wave movement in a 24.2 km river stretch between Rottweil and Oberndorf gauging stations of Neckar River in Germany wherein significant lateral flow contribution by intermediate catchment rainfall prevails during flood wave movement. The geometrical elements of the cross-sectional information of the considered routing river stretch without considering lateral flow are estimated using the Robust Parameter Estimation (ROPE) algorithm that allows for arriving at the best performing set of bed width and side slope of a trapezoidal section. The performance of the VPMM method is evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency criterion as the objective function to be maximized using the ROPE algorithm. The twenty-seven flood events in the calibration set are considered to identify the relationship between 'total rainfall' and 'total losses' as well as to optimize the geometric characteristics of the prismatic channel (width and slope of the trapezoidal section). Based on this analysis, a relationship between total rainfall and total loss of the intermediate catchment is obtained and then used to estimate the lateral flow in the reach. Assuming the lateral flow hydrograph is of the form of inflow hydrograph and using the total intervening catchment runoff estimated from the relationship, the uniformly distributed lateral flow rate qL at any instant of time is estimated for its use in the VPMM routing method. All the 27 flood events are simulated using this routing approach considering lateral flow along the reach. Many of these simulations are able to simulate the observed hydrographs very closely. The proposed approach of accounting lateral flow using the VPMM method is independently verified by routing flood hydrograph of 6 flood events which are not used in the total rainfall vs total loss relationship established for the intervening catchment of the studied river reach. Close reproduction of the outflow hydrographs of these independent events using the proposed VPMM method accounting for lateral flow demonstrate the practical utility of the method.

Blood flow quantification using 1D CFD parameter identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brosig, Richard; Kowarschik, Markus; Maday, Peter; Katouzian, Amin; Demirci, Stefanie; Navab, Nassir

2014-03-01

Patient-specific measurements of cerebral blood flow provide valuable diagnostic information concerning cerebrovascular diseases rather than visually driven qualitative evaluation. In this paper, we present a quantitative method to estimate blood flow parameters with high temporal resolution from digital subtraction angiography (DSA) image sequences. Using a 3D DSA dataset and a 2D+t DSA sequence, the proposed algorithm employs a 1D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for estimation of time-dependent flow values along a cerebral vessel, combined with an additional Advection Diffusion Equation (ADE) for contrast agent propagation. The CFD system, followed by the ADE, is solved with a finite volume approximation, which ensures the conservation of mass. Instead of defining a new imaging protocol to obtain relevant data, our cost function optimizes the bolus arrival time (BAT) of the contrast agent in 2D+t DSA sequences. The visual determination of BAT is common clinical practice and can be easily derived from and be compared to values, generated by a 1D-CFD simulation. Using this strategy, we ensure that our proposed method fits best to clinical practice and does not require any changes to the medical work flow. Synthetic experiments show that the recovered flow estimates match the ground truth values with less than 12% error in the mean flow rates.

Estimation of the Reactive Flow Model Parameters for an Ammonium Nitrate-Based Emulsion Explosive Using Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, J. B.; Silva, C.; Mendes, R.

2010-10-01

A real coded genetic algorithm methodology that has been developed for the estimation of the parameters of the reaction rate equation of the Lee-Tarver reactive flow model is described in detail. This methodology allows, in a single optimization procedure, using only one experimental result and, without the need of any starting solution, to seek the 15 parameters of the reaction rate equation that fit the numerical to the experimental results. Mass averaging and the plate-gap model have been used for the determination of the shock data used in the unreacted explosive JWL equation of state (EOS) assessment and the thermochemical code THOR retrieved the data used in the detonation products' JWL EOS assessments. The developed methodology was applied for the estimation of the referred parameters for an ammonium nitrate-based emulsion explosive using poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA)-embedded manganin gauge pressure-time data. The obtained parameters allow a reasonably good description of the experimental data and show some peculiarities arising from the intrinsic nature of this kind of composite explosive.

Equations and charts for the rapid estimation of hinge-moment and effectiveness parameters for trailing-edge controls having leading and trailing edges swept ahead of the Mach lines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goin, Kennith L

1951-01-01

Existing conical-flow solutions have been used to calculate the hinge-moments and effectiveness parameters of trailing-edge controls having leading and trailing edges swept ahead of the Mach lines and having streamwise root and tip chords. Equations and detailed charts are presented for the rapid estimation of these parameters. Also included is an approximate method by which these parameters may be corrected for airfoil-section thickness.

Assessment of catchments' flooding potential: a physically-based analytical tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, G.; Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.

2016-12-01

The assessment of the flooding potential of river catchments is critical in many research and applied fields, ranging from river science and geomorphology to urban planning and the insurance industry. Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is key to prevent and mitigate the negative effects of high flows, and has therefore long been the focus of hydrologic research. Here, the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima are estimated through a novel physically-based analytic approach, which links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge. An analytical expression of the seasonal flood-frequency curve is provided, whose parameters embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which expresses catchment saturation prior to rainfall events, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The method has been tested in a set of catchments featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model is able to reproduce characteristic shapes of flood-frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes and provides good estimates of seasonal flow maxima in different climatic regions. Performances are steady when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. This makes the approach especially valuable for regions affected by data scarcity.

Tube-Load Model Parameter Estimation for Monitoring Arterial Hemodynamics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guanqun; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

2011-01-01

A useful model of the arterial system is the uniform, lossless tube with parametric load. This tube-load model is able to account for wave propagation and reflection (unlike lumped-parameter models such as the Windkessel) while being defined by only a few parameters (unlike comprehensive distributed-parameter models). As a result, the parameters may be readily estimated by accurate fitting of the model to available arterial pressure and flow waveforms so as to permit improved monitoring of arterial hemodynamics. In this paper, we review tube-load model parameter estimation techniques that have appeared in the literature for monitoring wave reflection, large artery compliance, pulse transit time, and central aortic pressure. We begin by motivating the use of the tube-load model for parameter estimation. We then describe the tube-load model, its assumptions and validity, and approaches for estimating its parameters. We next summarize the various techniques and their experimental results while highlighting their advantages over conventional techniques. We conclude the review by suggesting future research directions and describing potential applications. PMID:22053157

Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.

PubMed

Lord, Dominique; Park, Peter Young-Jin

2008-07-01

Traditionally, transportation safety analysts have used the empirical Bayes (EB) method to improve the estimate of the long-term mean of individual sites; to correct for the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias in before-after studies; and to identify hotspots or high risk locations. The EB method combines two different sources of information: (1) the expected number of crashes estimated via crash prediction models, and (2) the observed number of crashes at individual sites. Crash prediction models have traditionally been estimated using a negative binomial (NB) (or Poisson-gamma) modeling framework due to the over-dispersion commonly found in crash data. A weight factor is used to assign the relative influence of each source of information on the EB estimate. This factor is estimated using the mean and variance functions of the NB model. With recent trends that illustrated the dispersion parameter to be dependent upon the covariates of NB models, especially for traffic flow-only models, as well as varying as a function of different time-periods, there is a need to determine how these models may affect EB estimates. The objectives of this study are to examine how commonly used functional forms as well as fixed and time-varying dispersion parameters affect the EB estimates. To accomplish the study objectives, several traffic flow-only crash prediction models were estimated using a sample of rural three-legged intersections located in California. Two types of aggregated and time-specific models were produced: (1) the traditional NB model with a fixed dispersion parameter and (2) the generalized NB model (GNB) with a time-varying dispersion parameter, which is also dependent upon the covariates of the model. Several statistical methods were used to compare the fitting performance of the various functional forms. The results of the study show that the selection of the functional form of NB models has an important effect on EB estimates both in terms of estimated values, weight factors, and dispersion parameters. Time-specific models with a varying dispersion parameter provide better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF) than aggregated multi-year models. Furthermore, the identification of hazardous sites, using the EB method, can be significantly affected when a GNB model with a time-varying dispersion parameter is used. Thus, erroneously selecting a functional form may lead to select the wrong sites for treatment. The study concludes that transportation safety analysts should not automatically use an existing functional form for modeling motor vehicle crashes without conducting rigorous analyses to estimate the most appropriate functional form linking crashes with traffic flow.

Tracer-Test Planning Using the Efficient Hydrologic Tracer ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for establishing flow trajectories and hydrologic connections and for determining basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test design can be difficult because of a lack of prior knowledge of the basic hydraulic and geometric parameters desired and the appropriate tracer mass to release. A new efficient hydrologic tracer-test design (EHTD) methodology has been developed that combines basic measured field parameters (e.g., discharge, distance, cross-sectional area) in functional relationships that describe solute-transport processes related to flow velocity and time of travel. The new method applies these initial estimates for time of travel and velocity to a hypothetical continuously stirred tank reactor as an analog for the hydrologic flow system to develop initial estimates for tracer concentration and axial dispersion, based on a preset average tracer concentration. Root determination of the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation (ADE) using the preset average tracer concentration then provides a theoretical basis for an estimate of necessary tracer mass.Application of the predicted tracer mass with the hydraulic and geometric parameters in the ADE allows for an approximation of initial sample-collection time and subsequent sample-collection frequency where a maximum of 65 samples were determined to be

EFFICIENT HYDROLOGICAL TRACER-TEST DESIGN (EHTD ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for establishing flow trajectories and hydrologic connections and for determining basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test design can be difficult because of a lack of prior knowledge of the basic hydraulic and geometric parameters desired and the appropriate tracer mass to release. A new efficient hydrologic tracer-test design (EHTD) methodology has been developed that combines basic measured field parameters (e.g., discharge, distance, cross-sectional area) in functional relationships that describe solute-transport processes related to flow velocity and time of travel. The new method applies these initial estimates for time of travel and velocity to a hypothetical continuously stirred tank reactor as an analog for the hydrologic flow system to develop initial estimates for tracer concentration and axial dispersion, based on a preset average tracer concentration. Root determination of the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation (ADE) using the preset average tracer concentration then provides a theoretical basis for an estimate of necessary tracer mass.Application of the predicted tracer mass with the hydraulic and geometric parameters in the ADE allows for an approximation of initial sample-collection time and subsequent sample-collection frequency where a maximum of 65 samples were determined to

Application of Manning's Formula for Estimation of Liquid Metal Levels in Electromagnetic Flow Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stelian, Carmen

2015-02-01

Lorentz force velocimetry is a new technique in electromagnetic flow measurements based on exposing an electrical conducting metal to a static magnetic field and measuring the force acting on the magnet system. The calibration procedure of a Lorentz force flowmeter used in industrial open-channel flow measurements is difficult because of the fluctuating liquid level in the channel. In this paper, the application of Manning's formula to estimate the depth of a liquid metal flowing in an open channel is analyzed by using the numerical modeling. Estimations of Manning's n parameter for aluminum show higher values as compared with water flowing in artificial channels. Saint-Venant equations are solved in order to analyze the wave propagation at the free surface of the liquid. Numerical results show a significant damping of waves at the surface of liquid metals as compared with water. Therefore, the Manning formula can be used to correlate the liquid depth and the flow rate in LFF numerical calibration procedure. These results show that the classical formulas, used exclusively to study the water flow in open channels, can be also applied for the liquid metals. The application of Manning's formulas requires experimental measurements of the parameter n, which depends on the channel bed roughness and also on the physical properties of the liquid flowing in channel.

Joint parameter and state estimation algorithms for real-time traffic monitoring.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-12-01

A common approach to traffic monitoring is to combine a macroscopic traffic flow model with traffic sensor data in a process called state estimation, data fusion, or data assimilation. The main challenge of traffic state estimation is the integration...

Noninvasive assessment of left atrial maximum dP/dt by a combination of transmitral and pulmonary venous flow.

PubMed

Nakatani, S; Garcia, M J; Firstenberg, M S; Rodriguez, L; Grimm, R A; Greenberg, N L; McCarthy, P M; Vandervoort, P M; Thomas, J D

1999-09-01

The study assessed whether hemodynamic parameters of left atrial (LA) systolic function could be estimated noninvasively using Doppler echocardiography. Left atrial systolic function is an important aspect of cardiac function. Doppler echocardiography can measure changes in LA volume, but has not been shown to relate to hemodynamic parameters such as the maximal value of the first derivative of the pressure (LA dP/dt(max)). Eighteen patients in sinus rhythm were studied immediately before and after open heart surgery using simultaneous LA pressure measurements and intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography. Left atrial pressure was measured with a micromanometer catheter, and LA dP/dt(max) during atrial contraction was obtained. Transmitral and pulmonary venous flow were recorded by pulsed Doppler echocardiography. Peak velocity, and mean acceleration and deceleration, and the time-velocity integral of each flow during atrial contraction was measured. The initial eight patients served as the study group to derive a multilinear regression equation to estimate LA dP/dt(max) from Doppler parameters, and the latter 10 patients served as the test group to validate the equation. A previously validated numeric model was used to confirm these results. In the study group, LA dP/dt(max) showed a linear relation with LA pressure before atrial contraction (r = 0.80, p < 0.005), confirming the presence of the Frank-Starling mechanism in the LA. Among transmitral flow parameters, mean acceleration showed the strongest correlation with LA dP/dt(max) (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). Among pulmonary venous flow parameters, no single parameter was sufficient to estimate LA dP/dt(max) with an r2 > 0.30. By stepwise and multiple linear regression analysis, LA dP/dt(max) was best described as follows: LA dP/dt(max) = 0.1 M-AC +/- 1.8 P-V - 4.1; r = 0.88, p < 0.0001, where M-AC is the mean acceleration of transmitral flow and P-V is the peak velocity of pulmonary venous flow during atrial contraction. This equation was tested in the latter 10 patients of the test group. Predicted and measured LA dP/dt(max) correlated well (r = 0.90, p < 0.0001). Numerical simulation verified that this relationship held across a wide range of atrial elastance, ventricular relaxation and systolic function, with LA dP/dt(max) predicted by the above equation with r = 0.94. A combination of transmitral and pulmonary venous flow parameters can provide a hemodynamic assessment of LA systolic function.

Noninvasive assessment of left atrial maximum dP/dt by a combination of transmitral and pulmonary venous flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nakatani, S.; Garcia, M. J.; Firstenberg, M. S.; Rodriguez, L.; Grimm, R. A.; Greenberg, N. L.; McCarthy, P. M.; Vandervoort, P. M.; Thomas, J. D.

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The study assessed whether hemodynamic parameters of left atrial (LA) systolic function could be estimated noninvasively using Doppler echocardiography. BACKGROUND: Left atrial systolic function is an important aspect of cardiac function. Doppler echocardiography can measure changes in LA volume, but has not been shown to relate to hemodynamic parameters such as the maximal value of the first derivative of the pressure (LA dP/dt(max)). METHODS: Eighteen patients in sinus rhythm were studied immediately before and after open heart surgery using simultaneous LA pressure measurements and intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography. Left atrial pressure was measured with a micromanometer catheter, and LA dP/dt(max) during atrial contraction was obtained. Transmitral and pulmonary venous flow were recorded by pulsed Doppler echocardiography. Peak velocity, and mean acceleration and deceleration, and the time-velocity integral of each flow during atrial contraction was measured. The initial eight patients served as the study group to derive a multilinear regression equation to estimate LA dP/dt(max) from Doppler parameters, and the latter 10 patients served as the test group to validate the equation. A previously validated numeric model was used to confirm these results. RESULTS: In the study group, LA dP/dt(max) showed a linear relation with LA pressure before atrial contraction (r = 0.80, p < 0.005), confirming the presence of the Frank-Starling mechanism in the LA. Among transmitral flow parameters, mean acceleration showed the strongest correlation with LA dP/dt(max) (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). Among pulmonary venous flow parameters, no single parameter was sufficient to estimate LA dP/dt(max) with an r2 > 0.30. By stepwise and multiple linear regression analysis, LA dP/dt(max) was best described as follows: LA dP/dt(max) = 0.1 M-AC +/- 1.8 P-V - 4.1; r = 0.88, p < 0.0001, where M-AC is the mean acceleration of transmitral flow and P-V is the peak velocity of pulmonary venous flow during atrial contraction. This equation was tested in the latter 10 patients of the test group. Predicted and measured LA dP/dt(max) correlated well (r = 0.90, p < 0.0001). Numerical simulation verified that this relationship held across a wide range of atrial elastance, ventricular relaxation and systolic function, with LA dP/dt(max) predicted by the above equation with r = 0.94. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of transmitral and pulmonary venous flow parameters can provide a hemodynamic assessment of LA systolic function.

Pedestrian Detection by Laser Scanning and Depth Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsi, A.; Lovas, T.; Molnar, B.; Somogyi, A.; Igazvolgyi, Z.

2016-06-01

Pedestrian flow is much less regulated and controlled compared to vehicle traffic. Estimating flow parameters would support many safety, security or commercial applications. Current paper discusses a method that enables acquiring information on pedestrian movements without disturbing and changing their motion. Profile laser scanner and depth camera have been applied to capture the geometry of the moving people as time series. Procedures have been developed to derive complex flow parameters, such as count, volume, walking direction and velocity from laser scanned point clouds. Since no images are captured from the faces of pedestrians, no privacy issues raised. The paper includes accuracy analysis of the estimated parameters based on video footage as reference. Due to the dense point clouds, detailed geometry analysis has been conducted to obtain the height and shoulder width of pedestrians and to detect whether luggage has been carried or not. The derived parameters support safety (e.g. detecting critical pedestrian density in mass events), security (e.g. detecting prohibited baggage in endangered areas) and commercial applications (e.g. counting pedestrians at all entrances/exits of a shopping mall).

Satellite angular velocity estimation based on star images and optical flow techniques.

PubMed

Fasano, Giancarmine; Rufino, Giancarlo; Accardo, Domenico; Grassi, Michele

2013-09-25

An optical flow-based technique is proposed to estimate spacecraft angular velocity based on sequences of star-field images. It does not require star identification and can be thus used to also deliver angular rate information when attitude determination is not possible, as during platform de tumbling or slewing. Region-based optical flow calculation is carried out on successive star images preprocessed to remove background. Sensor calibration parameters, Poisson equation, and a least-squares method are then used to estimate the angular velocity vector components in the sensor rotating frame. A theoretical error budget is developed to estimate the expected angular rate accuracy as a function of camera parameters and star distribution in the field of view. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is tested by using star field scenes generated by a hardware-in-the-loop testing facility and acquired by a commercial-off-the shelf camera sensor. Simulated cases comprise rotations at different rates. Experimental results are presented which are consistent with theoretical estimates. In particular, very accurate angular velocity estimates are generated at lower slew rates, while in all cases the achievable accuracy in the estimation of the angular velocity component along boresight is about one order of magnitude worse than the other two components.

Satellite Angular Velocity Estimation Based on Star Images and Optical Flow Techniques

PubMed Central

Fasano, Giancarmine; Rufino, Giancarlo; Accardo, Domenico; Grassi, Michele

2013-01-01

An optical flow-based technique is proposed to estimate spacecraft angular velocity based on sequences of star-field images. It does not require star identification and can be thus used to also deliver angular rate information when attitude determination is not possible, as during platform de tumbling or slewing. Region-based optical flow calculation is carried out on successive star images preprocessed to remove background. Sensor calibration parameters, Poisson equation, and a least-squares method are then used to estimate the angular velocity vector components in the sensor rotating frame. A theoretical error budget is developed to estimate the expected angular rate accuracy as a function of camera parameters and star distribution in the field of view. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is tested by using star field scenes generated by a hardware-in-the-loop testing facility and acquired by a commercial-off-the shelf camera sensor. Simulated cases comprise rotations at different rates. Experimental results are presented which are consistent with theoretical estimates. In particular, very accurate angular velocity estimates are generated at lower slew rates, while in all cases the achievable accuracy in the estimation of the angular velocity component along boresight is about one order of magnitude worse than the other two components. PMID:24072023

Characteristic Length Scales in Fracture Networks: Hydraulic Connectivity through Periodic Hydraulic Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Bour, O.; Le Borgne, T.; Longuevergne, L.; Lavenant, N.; Cole, M. C.; Guiheneuf, N.

2017-12-01

Determining hydraulic and transport connectivity in fractured bedrock has long been an important objective in contaminant hydrogeology, petroleum engineering, and geothermal operations. A persistent obstacle to making this determination is that the characteristic length scale is nearly impossible to determine in sparsely fractured networks. Both flow and transport occur through an unknown structure of interconnected fracture and/or fracture zones making the actual length that water or solutes travel undetermined. This poses difficulties for flow and transport models. For, example, hydraulic equations require a separation distance between pumping and observation well to determine hydraulic parameters. When wells pairs are close, the structure of the network can influence the interpretation of well separation and the flow dimension of the tested system. This issue is explored using hydraulic tests conducted in a shallow fractured crystalline rock. Periodic (oscillatory) slug tests were performed at the Ploemeur fractured rock test site located in Brittany, France. Hydraulic connectivity was examined between three zones in one well and four zones in another, located 6 m apart in map view. The wells are sufficiently close, however, that the tangential distance between the tested zones ranges between 6 and 30 m. Using standard periodic formulations of radial flow, estimates of storativity scale inversely with the square of the separation distance and hydraulic diffusivity directly with the square of the separation distance. Uncertainty in the connection paths between the two wells leads to an order of magnitude uncertainty in estimates of storativity and hydraulic diffusivity, although estimates of transmissivity are unaffected. The assumed flow dimension results in alternative estimates of hydraulic parameters. In general, one is faced with the prospect of assuming the hydraulic parameter and inverting the separation distance, or vice versa. Similar uncertainties exist, for instance, when trying to invert transport parameters from tracer mean residence time. This field test illustrates that when dealing with fracture networks, there is a need for analytic methods of complexity that lie between simple radial solutions and discrete fracture network models.

Detection of conveyance changes in St. Clair River using historical water-level and flow data with inverse one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Hoard, C.J.

2009-01-01

St. Clair River is a connecting channel that transports water from Lake Huron to the St. Clair River Delta and Lake St. Clair. A negative trend has been detected in differences between water levels on Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair. This trend may indicate a combination of flow and conveyance changes within St. Clair River. To identify where conveyance change may be taking place, eight water-level gaging stations along St. Clair River were selected to delimit seven reaches. Positive trends in water-level fall were detected in two reaches, and negative trends were detected in two other reaches. The presence of both positive and negative trends in water-level fall indicates that changes in conveyance are likely occurring among some reaches because all reaches transmit essentially the same flow. Annual water-level fall in reaches and reach lengths was used to compute conveyance ratios for all pairs of reaches by use of water-level data from 1962 to 2007. Positive and negative trends in conveyance ratios indicate that relative conveyance is changing among some reaches. Inverse one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic modeling was used to estimate a partial annual series of effective channel-roughness parameters in reaches forming the St. Clair River for 21 years when flow measurements were sufficient to support parameter estimation. Monotonic, persistent but non-monotonic, and irregular changes in estimated effective channel roughness with time were interpreted as systematic changes in conveyances in five reaches. Time-varying parameter estimates were used to simulate flow throughout the St. Clair River and compute changes in conveyance with time. Based on the partial annual series of parameters, conveyance in the St. Clair River increased about 10 percent from 1962 to 2002. Conveyance decreased, however, about 4.1 percent from 2003 to 2007, so that conveyance was about 5.9 percent higher in 2007 than in 1962.

Fractional flow in fractured chalk; a flow and tracer test revisited.

PubMed

Odling, N E; West, L J; Hartmann, S; Kilpatrick, A

2013-04-01

A multi-borehole pumping and tracer test in fractured chalk is revisited and reinterpreted in the light of fractional flow. Pumping test data analyzed using a fractional flow model gives sub-spherical flow dimensions of 2.2-2.4 which are interpreted as due to the partially penetrating nature of the pumped borehole. The fractional flow model offers greater versatility than classical methods for interpreting pumping tests in fractured aquifers but its use has been hampered because the hydraulic parameters derived are hard to interpret. A method is developed to convert apparent transmissivity and storativity (L(4-n)/T and S(2-n)) to conventional transmissivity and storativity (L2/T and dimensionless) for the case where flow dimension, 2

Two-lane traffic-flow model with an exact steady-state solution.

PubMed

Kanai, Masahiro

2010-12-01

We propose a stochastic cellular-automaton model for two-lane traffic flow based on the misanthrope process in one dimension. The misanthrope process is a stochastic process allowing for an exact steady-state solution; hence, we have an exact flow-density diagram for two-lane traffic. In addition, we introduce two parameters that indicate, respectively, driver's driving-lane preference and passing-lane priority. Due to the additional parameters, the model shows a deviation of the density ratio for driving-lane use and a biased lane efficiency in flow. Then, a mean-field approach explicitly describes the asymmetric flow by the hop rates, the driving-lane preference, and the passing-lane priority. Meanwhile, the simulation results are in good agreement with an observational data, and we thus estimate these parameters. We conclude that the proposed model successfully produces two-lane traffic flow particularly with the driving-lane preference and the passing-lane priority.

Identification of groundwater flow parameters using reciprocal data from hydraulic interference tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinoni, Marianna; Delay, Frederick; Ackerer, Philippe; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

2016-08-01

We investigate the effect of considering reciprocal drawdown curves for the characterization of hydraulic properties of aquifer systems through inverse modeling based on interference well testing. Reciprocity implies that drawdown observed in a well B when pumping takes place from well A should strictly coincide with the drawdown observed in A when pumping in B with the same flow rate as in A. In this context, a critical point related to applications of hydraulic tomography is the assessment of the number of available independent drawdown data and their impact on the solution of the inverse problem. The issue arises when inverse modeling relies upon mathematical formulations of the classical single-continuum approach to flow in porous media grounded on Darcy's law. In these cases, introducing reciprocal drawdown curves in the database of an inverse problem is equivalent to duplicate some information, to a certain extent. We present a theoretical analysis of the way a Least-Square objective function and a Levenberg-Marquardt minimization algorithm are affected by the introduction of reciprocal information in the inverse problem. We also investigate the way these reciprocal data, eventually corrupted by measurement errors, influence model parameter identification in terms of: (a) the convergence of the inverse model, (b) the optimal values of parameter estimates, and (c) the associated estimation uncertainty. Our theoretical findings are exemplified through a suite of computational examples focused on block-heterogeneous systems with increased complexity level. We find that the introduction of noisy reciprocal information in the objective function of the inverse problem has a very limited influence on the optimal parameter estimates. Convergence of the inverse problem improves when adding diverse (nonreciprocal) drawdown series, but does not improve when reciprocal information is added to condition the flow model. The uncertainty on optimal parameter estimates is influenced by the strength of measurement errors and it is not significantly diminished or increased by adding noisy reciprocal information.

Tradeoffs among watershed model calibration targets for parameter estimation

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic models are commonly calibrated by optimizing a single objective function target to compare simulated and observed flows, although individual targets are influenced by specific flow modes. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) emphasizes flood peaks in evaluating simulation f...

An adaptive Gaussian process-based iterative ensemble smoother for data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Meng, Long; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-05-01

Accurate characterization of subsurface hydraulic conductivity is vital for modeling of subsurface flow and transport. The iterative ensemble smoother (IES) has been proposed to estimate the heterogeneous parameter field. As a Monte Carlo-based method, IES requires a relatively large ensemble size to guarantee its performance. To improve the computational efficiency, we propose an adaptive Gaussian process (GP)-based iterative ensemble smoother (GPIES) in this study. At each iteration, the GP surrogate is adaptively refined by adding a few new base points chosen from the updated parameter realizations. Then the sensitivity information between model parameters and measurements is calculated from a large number of realizations generated by the GP surrogate with virtually no computational cost. Since the original model evaluations are only required for base points, whose number is much smaller than the ensemble size, the computational cost is significantly reduced. The applicability of GPIES in estimating heterogeneous conductivity is evaluated by the saturated and unsaturated flow problems, respectively. Without sacrificing estimation accuracy, GPIES achieves about an order of magnitude of speed-up compared with the standard IES. Although subsurface flow problems are considered in this study, the proposed method can be equally applied to other hydrological models.

Modification of a rainfall-runoff model for distributed modeling in a GIS and its validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyabeze, W. R.

A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

A survey of oscillating flow in Stirling engine heat exchangers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Terrence W.; Seume, Jorge R.

1988-01-01

Similarity parameters for characterizing the effect of flow oscillation on wall shear stress, viscous dissipation, pressure drop and heat transfer rates are proposed. They are based on physical agruments and are derived by normalizing the governing equations. The literature on oscillating duct flows, regenerator and porous media flows is surveyed. The operating characteristics of the heat exchanger of eleven Stirling engines are discribed in terms of the similarity parameters. Previous experimental and analytical results are discussed in terms of these parameters and used to estimate the nature of the oscillating flow under engine operating conditions. The operating points for many of the modern Stirling engines are in or near the laminar to turbulent transition region. In several engines, working fluid does not pass entirely through heat exchangers during a cycle. Questions that need to be addressed by further research are identified.

Estimating soil hydraulic properties from soil moisture time series by inversion of a dual-permeability model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalla Valle, Nicolas; Wutzler, Thomas; Meyer, Stefanie; Potthast, Karin; Michalzik, Beate

2017-04-01

Dual-permeability type models are widely used to simulate water fluxes and solute transport in structured soils. These models contain two spatially overlapping flow domains with different parameterizations or even entirely different conceptual descriptions of flow processes. They are usually able to capture preferential flow phenomena, but a large set of parameters is needed, which are very laborious to obtain or cannot be measured at all. Therefore, model inversions are often used to derive the necessary parameters. Although these require sufficient input data themselves, they can use measurements of state variables instead, which are often easier to obtain and can be monitored by automated measurement systems. In this work we show a method to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from high frequency soil moisture time series data gathered at two different measurement depths by inversion of a simple one dimensional dual-permeability model. The model uses an advection equation based on the kinematic wave theory to describe the flow in the fracture domain and a Richards equation for the flow in the matrix domain. The soil moisture time series data were measured in mesocosms during sprinkling experiments. The inversion consists of three consecutive steps: First, the parameters of the water retention function were assessed using vertical soil moisture profiles in hydraulic equilibrium. This was done using two different exponential retention functions and the Campbell function. Second, the soil sorptivity and diffusivity functions were estimated from Boltzmann-transformed soil moisture data, which allowed the calculation of the hydraulic conductivity function. Third, the parameters governing flow in the fracture domain were determined using the whole soil moisture time series. The resulting retention functions were within the range of values predicted by pedotransfer functions apart from very dry conditions, where all retention functions predicted lower matrix potentials. The diffusivity function predicted values of a similar range as shown in other studies. Overall, the model was able to emulate soil moisture time series for low measurement depths, but deviated increasingly at larger depths. This indicates that some of the model parameters are not constant throughout the profile. However, overall seepage fluxes were still predicted correctly. In the near future we will apply the inversion method to lower frequency soil moisture data from different sites to evaluate the model's ability to predict preferential flow seepage fluxes at the field scale.

Motion estimation under location uncertainty for turbulent fluid flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Shengze; Mémin, Etienne; Dérian, Pierre; Xu, Chao

2018-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel optical flow formulation for estimating two-dimensional velocity fields from an image sequence depicting the evolution of a passive scalar transported by a fluid flow. This motion estimator relies on a stochastic representation of the flow allowing to incorporate naturally a notion of uncertainty in the flow measurement. In this context, the Eulerian fluid flow velocity field is decomposed into two components: a large-scale motion field and a small-scale uncertainty component. We define the small-scale component as a random field. Subsequently, the data term of the optical flow formulation is based on a stochastic transport equation, derived from the formalism under location uncertainty proposed in Mémin (Geophys Astrophys Fluid Dyn 108(2):119-146, 2014) and Resseguier et al. (Geophys Astrophys Fluid Dyn 111(3):149-176, 2017a). In addition, a specific regularization term built from the assumption of constant kinetic energy involves the very same diffusion tensor as the one appearing in the data transport term. Opposite to the classical motion estimators, this enables us to devise an optical flow method dedicated to fluid flows in which the regularization parameter has now a clear physical interpretation and can be easily estimated. Experimental evaluations are presented on both synthetic and real world image sequences. Results and comparisons indicate very good performance of the proposed formulation for turbulent flow motion estimation.

A Process Dynamics and Control Experiment for the Undergraduate Laboratory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, Jordan L.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a process control experiment. The apparatus includes a three-vessel glass flow system with a variable flow configuration, means for feeding dye solution controlled by a stepper-motor driven valve, and a flow spectrophotometer. Students use impulse response data and nonlinear regression to estimate three parameters of a model…

Combining experimental techniques with non-linear numerical models to assess the sorption of pesticides on soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magga, Zoi; Tzovolou, Dimitra N.; Theodoropoulou, Maria A.; Tsakiroglou, Christos D.

2012-03-01

The risk assessment of groundwater pollution by pesticides may be based on pesticide sorption and biodegradation kinetic parameters estimated with inverse modeling of datasets from either batch or continuous flow soil column experiments. In the present work, a chemical non-equilibrium and non-linear 2-site sorption model is incorporated into solute transport models to invert the datasets of batch and soil column experiments, and estimate the kinetic sorption parameters for two pesticides: N-phosphonomethyl glycine (glyphosate) and 2,4-dichlorophenoxy-acetic acid (2,4-D). When coupling the 2-site sorption model with the 2-region transport model, except of the kinetic sorption parameters, the soil column datasets enable us to estimate the mass-transfer coefficients associated with solute diffusion between mobile and immobile regions. In order to improve the reliability of models and kinetic parameter values, a stepwise strategy that combines batch and continuous flow tests with adequate true-to-the mechanism analytical of numerical models, and decouples the kinetics of purely reactive steps of sorption from physical mass-transfer processes is required.

Comparison of Dam Breach Parameter Estimators

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

of the methods, when used in the HEC - RAS simulation model , produced comparable results. The methods tested suggest use of ...characteristics of a dam breach, use of those parameters within the unsteady flow routing model HEC - RAS , and the computation and display of the resulting...implementation of these breach parameters in

Estimation of blood flow heterogeneity in human skeletal muscle using intravascular tracer data: importance for modeling transcapillary exchange.

PubMed

Vicini, P; Bonadonna, R C; Lehtovirta, M; Groop, L C; Cobelli, C

1998-01-01

Distributed models of blood-tissue exchange are widely used to measure kinetic events of various solutes from multiple tracer dilution experiments. Their use requires, however, a careful description of blood flow heterogeneity along the capillary bed. Since they have mostly been applied in animal studies, direct measurement of the heterogeneity distribution was possible, e.g., with the invasive microsphere method. Here we apply distributed modeling to a dual tracer experiment in humans, performed using an intravascular (indocyanine green dye, subject to distribution along the vascular tree and confined to the capillary bed) and an extracellular ([3H]-D-mannitol, tracing passive transcapillary transfer across the capillary membrane in the interstitial fluid) tracer. The goal is to measure relevant parameters of transcapillary exchange in human skeletal muscle. We show that assuming an accurate description of blood flow heterogeneity is crucial for modeling, and in particular that assuming for skeletal muscle the well-studied cardiac muscle blood flow heterogeneity is inappropriate. The same reason prevents the use of the common method of estimating the input function of the distributed model via deconvolution, which assumes a known blood flow heterogeneity, either defined from literature or measured, when possible. We present a novel approach for the estimation of blood flow heterogeneity in each individual from the intravascular tracer data. When this newly estimated blood flow heterogeneity is used, a more satisfactory model fit is obtained and it is possible to reliably measure parameters of capillary membrane permeability-surface product and interstitial fluid volume describing transcapillary transfer in vivo.

Using heat as a tracer to estimate spatially distributed mean residence times in the hyporheic zone of a riffle-pool sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naranjo, Ramon C.

2013-01-01

Biochemical reactions that occur in the hyporheic zone are highly dependent on the time solutes that are in contact with sediments of the riverbed. In this investigation, we developed a 2-D longitudinal flow and solute-transport model to estimate the spatial distribution of mean residence time in the hyporheic zone. The flow model was calibrated using observations of temperature and pressure, and the mean residence times were simulated using the age-mass approach for steady-state flow conditions. The approach used in this investigation includes the mixing of different ages and flow paths of water through advection and dispersion. Uncertainty of flow and transport parameters was evaluated using standard Monte Carlo and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Results of parameter estimation support the presence of a low-permeable zone in the riffle area that induced horizontal flow at a shallow depth within the riffle area. This establishes shallow and localized flow paths and limits deep vertical exchange. For the optimal model, mean residence times were found to be relatively long (9–40.0 days). The uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity resulted in a mean interquartile range (IQR) of 13 days across all piezometers and was reduced by 24% with the inclusion of temperature and pressure observations. To a lesser extent, uncertainty in streambed porosity and dispersivity resulted in a mean IQR of 2.2 and 4.7 days, respectively. Alternative conceptual models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity in simulating mean residence times in a riffle-pool sequence.

The unsaturated flow in porous media with dynamic capillary pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milišić, Josipa-Pina

2018-05-01

In this paper we consider a degenerate pseudoparabolic equation for the wetting saturation of an unsaturated two-phase flow in porous media with dynamic capillary pressure-saturation relationship where the relaxation parameter depends on the saturation. Following the approach given in [13] the existence of a weak solution is proved using Galerkin approximation and regularization techniques. A priori estimates needed for passing to the limit when the regularization parameter goes to zero are obtained by using appropriate test-functions, motivated by the fact that considered PDE allows a natural generalization of the classical Kullback entropy. Finally, a special care was given in obtaining an estimate of the mixed-derivative term by combining the information from the capillary pressure with the obtained a priori estimates on the saturation.

Limits of Predictability in Commuting Flows in the Absence of Data for Calibration

PubMed Central

Yang, Yingxiang; Herrera, Carlos; Eagle, Nathan; González, Marta C.

2014-01-01

The estimation of commuting flows at different spatial scales is a fundamental problem for different areas of study. Many current methods rely on parameters requiring calibration from empirical trip volumes. Their values are often not generalizable to cases without calibration data. To solve this problem we develop a statistical expression to calculate commuting trips with a quantitative functional form to estimate the model parameter when empirical trip data is not available. We calculate commuting trip volumes at scales from within a city to an entire country, introducing a scaling parameter α to the recently proposed parameter free radiation model. The model requires only widely available population and facility density distributions. The parameter can be interpreted as the influence of the region scale and the degree of heterogeneity in the facility distribution. We explore in detail the scaling limitations of this problem, namely under which conditions the proposed model can be applied without trip data for calibration. On the other hand, when empirical trip data is available, we show that the proposed model's estimation accuracy is as good as other existing models. We validated the model in different regions in the U.S., then successfully applied it in three different countries. PMID:25012599

Parameter Estimation for Geoscience Applications Using a Measure-Theoretic Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, C.; Butler, T.; Mattis, S. A.; Graham, L.; Westerink, J. J.; Vesselinov, V. V.; Estep, D.

2016-12-01

Effective modeling of complex physical systems arising in the geosciences is dependent on knowing parameters which are often difficult or impossible to measure in situ. In this talk we focus on two such problems, estimating parameters for groundwater flow and contaminant transport, and estimating parameters within a coastal ocean model. The approach we will describe, proposed by collaborators D. Estep, T. Butler and others, is based on a novel stochastic inversion technique based on measure theory. In this approach, given a probability space on certain observable quantities of interest, one searches for the sets of highest probability in parameter space which give rise to these observables. When viewed as mappings between sets, the stochastic inversion problem is well-posed in certain settings, but there are computational challenges related to the set construction. We will focus the talk on estimating scalar parameters and fields in a contaminant transport setting, and in estimating bottom friction in a complicated near-shore coastal application.

Analytical flow duration curves for summer streamflow in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Ana Clara; Portela, Maria Manuela; Rinaldo, Andrea; Schaefli, Bettina

2018-04-01

This paper proposes a systematic assessment of the performance of an analytical modeling framework for streamflow probability distributions for a set of 25 Swiss catchments. These catchments show a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including namely snow-influenced streamflows. The model parameters are calculated from a spatially averaged gridded daily precipitation data set and from observed daily discharge time series, both in a forward estimation mode (direct parameter calculation from observed data) and in an inverse estimation mode (maximum likelihood estimation). The performance of the linear and the nonlinear model versions is assessed in terms of reproducing observed flow duration curves and their natural variability. Overall, the nonlinear model version outperforms the linear model for all regimes, but the linear model shows a notable performance increase with catchment elevation. More importantly, the obtained results demonstrate that the analytical model performs well for summer discharge for all analyzed streamflow regimes, ranging from rainfall-driven regimes with summer low flow to snow and glacier regimes with summer high flow. These results suggest that the model's encoding of discharge-generating events based on stochastic soil moisture dynamics is more flexible than previously thought. As shown in this paper, the presence of snowmelt or ice melt is accommodated by a relative increase in the discharge-generating frequency, a key parameter of the model. Explicit quantification of this frequency increase as a function of mean catchment meteorological conditions is left for future research.

From Magma Fracture to a Seismic Magma Flow Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, J. W.

2007-12-01

Seismic swarms of low-frequency events occur during periods of enhanced volcanic activity and have been related to the flow of magma at depth. Often they precede a dome collapse on volcanoes like Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, or Mt St Helens. This contribution is based on the conceptual model of magma rupture as a trigger mechanism. Several source mechanisms and radiation patterns at the focus of a single event are discussed. We investigate the accelerating event rate and seismic amplitudes during one swarm, as well as over a time period of several swarms. The seismic slip vector will be linked to magma flow parameters resulting in estimates of magma flux for a variety of flow models such as plug flow, parabolic- or friction controlled flow. In this way we try to relate conceptual models to quantitative estimations which could lead to estimations of magma flux at depth from seismic low-frequency signals.

Scaling of peak flows with constant flow velocity in random self-similar networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Gupta, Vijay K.

2011-01-01

A methodology is presented to understand the role of the statistical self-similar topology of real river networks on scaling, or power law, in peak flows for rainfall-runoff events. We created Monte Carlo generated sets of ensembles of 1000 random self-similar networks (RSNs) with geometrically distributed interior and exterior generators having parameters pi and pe, respectively. The parameter values were chosen to replicate the observed topology of real river networks. We calculated flow hydrographs in each of these networks by numerically solving the link-based mass and momentum conservation equation under the assumption of constant flow velocity. From these simulated RSNs and hydrographs, the scaling exponents β and φ characterizing power laws with respect to drainage area, and corresponding to the width functions and flow hydrographs respectively, were estimated. We found that, in general, φ > β, which supports a similar finding first reported for simulations in the river network of the Walnut Gulch basin, Arizona. Theoretical estimation of β and φ in RSNs is a complex open problem. Therefore, using results for a simpler problem associated with the expected width function and expected hydrograph for an ensemble of RSNs, we give heuristic arguments for theoretical derivations of the scaling exponents β(E) and φ(E) that depend on the Horton ratios for stream lengths and areas. These ratios in turn have a known dependence on the parameters of the geometric distributions of RSN generators. Good agreement was found between the analytically conjectured values of β(E) and φ(E) and the values estimated by the simulated ensembles of RSNs and hydrographs. The independence of the scaling exponents φ(E) and φ with respect to the value of flow velocity and runoff intensity implies an interesting connection between unit hydrograph theory and flow dynamics. Our results provide a reference framework to study scaling exponents under more complex scenarios of flow dynamics and runoff generation processes using ensembles of RSNs.

Investigation of transverse oscillation method.

PubMed

Udesen, Jesper; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

2006-05-01

Conventional ultrasound scanners can display only the axial component of the blood velocity vector, which is a significant limitation when vessels nearly parallel to the skin surface are scanned. The transverse oscillation (TO) method overcomes this limitation by introducing a TO and an axial oscillation in the pulse echo field. The theory behind the creation of the double oscillation pulse echo field is explained as well as the theory behind the estimation of the vector velocity. A parameter study of the method is performed, using the ultrasound simulation program Field II. A virtual linear-array transducer with center frequency 7 MHz and 128 active elements is created, and a virtual blood vessel of radius 6.4 mm is simulated. The performance of the TO method is found around an initial point in the parameter space. The parameters varied are: flow angle, transmit focus depth, receive apodization, pulse length, transverse wave length, number of emissions, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and type of echo-canceling filter used. Using an experimental scanner, the performance of the TO method is evaluated. An experimental flowrig is used to create laminar parabolic flow in a blood mimicking fluid, and the fluid is scanned under different flow-to-beam angles. The relative standard deviation on the transverse velocity estimate is found to be less than 10% for all angles between 50 degrees and 90 degrees. Furthermore, the TO method is evaluated in the flowrig using pulsatile flow, which resembles the flow in the femoral artery. The estimated volume flow as a function of time is compared to the volume flow derived from a conventional axial method at a flow-to-beam angle of 60 degrees. It is found that the method is highly sensitive to the angle between the flow and the beam direction. Also, the choice of echo canceling filter affects the performance significantly.

Efficient geostatistical inversion of transient groundwater flow using preconditioned nonlinear conjugate gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Ole; Cirpka, Olaf A.; Bastian, Peter; Ippisch, Olaf

2017-04-01

In the geostatistical inverse problem of subsurface hydrology, continuous hydraulic parameter fields, in most cases hydraulic conductivity, are estimated from measurements of dependent variables, such as hydraulic heads, under the assumption that the parameter fields are autocorrelated random space functions. Upon discretization, the continuous fields become large parameter vectors with O (104 -107) elements. While cokriging-like inversion methods have been shown to be efficient for highly resolved parameter fields when the number of measurements is small, they require the calculation of the sensitivity of each measurement with respect to all parameters, which may become prohibitive with large sets of measured data such as those arising from transient groundwater flow. We present a Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient method for the geostatistical inverse problem, in which a single adjoint equation needs to be solved to obtain the gradient of the objective function. Using the autocovariance matrix of the parameters as preconditioning matrix, expensive multiplications with its inverse can be avoided, and the number of iterations is significantly reduced. We use a randomized spectral decomposition of the posterior covariance matrix of the parameters to perform a linearized uncertainty quantification of the parameter estimate. The feasibility of the method is tested by virtual examples of head observations in steady-state and transient groundwater flow. These synthetic tests demonstrate that transient data can reduce both parameter uncertainty and time spent conducting experiments, while the presented methods are able to handle the resulting large number of measurements.

A transverse oscillation approach for estimation of three-dimensional velocity vectors, part I: concept and simulation study.

PubMed

Pihl, Michael Johannes; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

2014-10-01

A method for 3-D velocity vector estimation using transverse oscillations is presented. The method employs a 2-D transducer and decouples the velocity estimation into three orthogonal components, which are estimated simultaneously and from the same data. The validity of the method is investigated by conducting simulations emulating a 32 × 32 matrix transducer. The results are evaluated using two performance metrics related to precision and accuracy. The study includes several parameters including 49 flow directions, the SNR, steering angle, and apodization types. The 49 flow directions cover the positive octant of the unit sphere. In terms of accuracy, the median bias is -2%. The precision of v(x) and v(y) depends on the flow angle ß and ranges from 5% to 31% relative to the peak velocity magnitude of 1 m/s. For comparison, the range is 0.4 to 2% for v(z). The parameter study also reveals, that the velocity estimation breaks down with an SNR between -6 and -3 dB. In terms of computational load, the estimation of the three velocity components requires 0.75 billion floating point operations per second (0.75 Gflops) for a realistic setup. This is well within the capability of modern scanners.

Two-compartment modeling of tissue microcirculation revisited.

PubMed

Brix, Gunnar; Salehi Ravesh, Mona; Griebel, Jürgen

2017-05-01

Conventional two-compartment modeling of tissue microcirculation is used for tracer kinetic analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging studies although it is well-known that the underlying assumption of an instantaneous mixing of the administered contrast agent (CA) in capillaries is far from being realistic. It was thus the aim of the present study to provide theoretical and computational evidence in favor of a conceptually alternative modeling approach that makes it possible to characterize the bias inherent to compartment modeling and, moreover, to approximately correct for it. Starting from a two-region distributed-parameter model that accounts for spatial gradients in CA concentrations within blood-tissue exchange units, a modified lumped two-compartment exchange model was derived. It has the same analytical structure as the conventional two-compartment model, but indicates that the apparent blood flow identifiable from measured DCE data is substantially overestimated, whereas the three other model parameters (i.e., the permeability-surface area product as well as the volume fractions of the plasma and interstitial distribution space) are unbiased. Furthermore, a simple formula was derived to approximately compute a bias-corrected flow from the estimates of the apparent flow and permeability-surface area product obtained by model fitting. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed modeling and bias correction method, representative noise-free DCE curves were analyzed. They were simulated for 36 microcirculation and four input scenarios by an axially distributed reference model. As analytically proven, the considered two-compartment exchange model is structurally identifiable from tissue residue data. The apparent flow values estimated for the 144 simulated tissue/input scenarios were considerably biased. After bias-correction, the deviations between estimated and actual parameter values were (11.2 ± 6.4) % (vs. (105 ± 21) % without correction) for the flow, (3.6 ± 6.1) % for the permeability-surface area product, (5.8 ± 4.9) % for the vascular volume and (2.5 ± 4.1) % for the interstitial volume; with individual deviations of more than 20% being the exception and just marginal. Increasing the duration of CA administration only had a statistically significant but opposite effect on the accuracy of the estimated flow (declined) and intravascular volume (improved). Physiologically well-defined tissue parameters are structurally identifiable and accurately estimable from DCE data by the conceptually modified two-compartment model in combination with the bias correction. The accuracy of the bias-corrected flow is nearly comparable to that of the three other (theoretically unbiased) model parameters. As compared to conventional two-compartment modeling, this feature constitutes a major advantage for tracer kinetic analysis of both preclinical and clinical DCE imaging studies. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Improved analysis of transient temperature data from permanent down-hole gauges (PDGs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiqun; Zheng, Shiyi; Wang, Qi

2017-08-01

With the installation of permanent down-hole gauges (PDGs) during oil field development, large volumes of high resolution and continuous down-hole information are obtainable. The interpretation of these real-time temperature and pressure data can optimize well performance, provide information about the reservoir and continuously calibrate the reservoir model. Although the dynamic temperature data have been interpreted in practice to predict flow profiling and provide characteristic information of the reservoir, almost all of the approaches rely on established non-isothermal models which depend on thermodynamic parameters. Another problem comes from the temperature transient analysis (TTA), which is underutilized compared with pressure transient analysis (PTA). In this study, several model-independent methods of TTA were performed. The entire set of PDG data consists of many flow events. By utilizing the wavelet transform, the exact points of flow-rate changes can be located. The flow regime changes, for example, from early time linear flow to later time pseudo-radial flow, among every transient period with constant flow-rate. For the early time region (ETR) that is caused by flow-rate change operations, the TTA, along with the PTA can greatly reduce the uncertainties in flow regime diagnosis. Then, the temperature variations during ETR were examined to infer the true reservoir temperature history, and the relationships between the wavelet detailed coefficients and the flow-rate changes were analysed. For the scenarios with constant reservoir-well parameters, the detailed flow-rate history can be generated by calculating the coefficient of relationship in advance. For later times, the flow regime changes to pseudo-radial flow. An analytical solution was introduced to describe the sand-face temperature. The formation parameters, such as permeability and skin factor, were estimated with the previously calculated flow-rate. It is necessary to analyse temperature variation to overcome data limitation problems when information from other down-hole tools (e.g. expensive but unstable flow meters) is insufficient. This study shows the success in wellbore storage regime diagnosis, flow-rate history reconstruction, and formation parameters estimation using transient temperature data.

MODOPTIM: A general optimization program for ground-water flow model calibration and ground-water management with MODFLOW

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.

2006-01-01

MODOPTIM is a non-linear ground-water model calibration and management tool that simulates flow with MODFLOW-96 as a subroutine. A weighted sum-of-squares objective function defines optimal solutions for calibration and management problems. Water levels, discharges, water quality, subsidence, and pumping-lift costs are the five direct observation types that can be compared in MODOPTIM. Differences between direct observations of the same type can be compared to fit temporal changes and spatial gradients. Water levels in pumping wells, wellbore storage in the observation wells, and rotational translation of observation wells also can be compared. Negative and positive residuals can be weighted unequally so inequality constraints such as maximum chloride concentrations or minimum water levels can be incorporated in the objective function. Optimization parameters are defined with zones and parameter-weight matrices. Parameter change is estimated iteratively with a quasi-Newton algorithm and is constrained to a user-defined maximum parameter change per iteration. Parameters that are less sensitive than a user-defined threshold are not estimated. MODOPTIM facilitates testing more conceptual models by expediting calibration of each conceptual model. Examples of applying MODOPTIM to aquifer-test analysis, ground-water management, and parameter estimation problems are presented.

Groundwater flow and transport modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.; Mercer, J.W.

1988-01-01

Deterministic, distributed-parameter, numerical simulation models for analyzing groundwater flow and transport problems have come to be used almost routinely during the past decade. A review of the theoretical basis and practical use of groundwater flow and solute transport models is used to illustrate the state-of-the-art. Because of errors and uncertainty in defining model parameters, models must be calibrated to obtain a best estimate of the parameters. For flow modeling, data generally are sufficient to allow calibration. For solute-transport modeling, lack of data not only limits calibration, but also causes uncertainty in process description. Where data are available, model reliability should be assessed on the basis of sensitivity tests and measures of goodness-of-fit. Some of these concepts are demonstrated by using two case histories. ?? 1988.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vermeul, Vincent R.; Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.

2001-08-29

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures andmore » parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed.« less

A hybrid method of estimating pulsating flow parameters in the space-time domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pałczyński, Tomasz

2017-05-01

This paper presents a method for estimating pulsating flow parameters in partially open pipes, such as pipelines, internal combustion engine inlets, exhaust pipes and piston compressors. The procedure is based on the method of characteristics, and employs a combination of measurements and simulations. An experimental test rig is described, which enables pressure, temperature and mass flow rate to be measured within a defined cross section. The second part of the paper discusses the main assumptions of a simulation algorithm elaborated in the Matlab/Simulink environment. The simulation results are shown as 3D plots in the space-time domain, and compared with proposed models of phenomena relating to wave propagation, boundary conditions, acoustics and fluid mechanics. The simulation results are finally compared with acoustic phenomena, with an emphasis on the identification of resonant frequencies.

A statistical method for estimating wood thermal diffusivity and probe geometry using in situ heat response curves from sap flow measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xingyuan; Miller, Gretchen R.; Rubin, Yoram

2012-09-13

The heat pulse method is widely used to measure water flux through plants; it works by inferring the velocity of water through a porous medium from the speed at which a heat pulse is propagated through the system. No systematic, non-destructive calibration procedure exists to determine the site-specific parameters necessary for calculating sap velocity, e.g., wood thermal diffusivity and probe spacing. Such parameter calibration is crucial to obtain the correct transpiration flux density from the sap flow measurements at the plant scale; and consequently, to up-scale tree-level water fluxes to canopy and landscape scales. The purpose of this study ismore » to present a statistical framework for estimating the wood thermal diffusivity and probe spacing simutaneously from in-situ heat response curves collected by the implanted probes of a heat ratio apparatus. Conditioned on the time traces of wood temperature following a heat pulse, the parameters are inferred using a Bayesian inversion technique, based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method. The primary advantage of the proposed methodology is that it does not require known probe spacing or any further intrusive sampling of sapwood. The Bayesian framework also enables direct quantification of uncertainty in estimated sap flow velocity. Experiments using synthetic data show that repeated tests using the same apparatus are essential to obtain reliable and accurate solutions. When applied to field conditions, these tests are conducted during different seasons and automated using the existing data logging system. The seasonality of wood thermal diffusivity is obtained as a by-product of the parameter estimation process, and it is shown to be affected by both moisture content and temperature. Empirical factors are often introduced to account for the influence of non-ideal probe geometry on the estimation of heat pulse velocity, and they are estimated in this study as well. The proposed methodology can be applied for the calibration of existing heat ratio sap flow systems at other sites. It is especially useful when an alternative transpiration calibration device, such as a lysimeter, is not available.« less

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration in sanitary sewer systems based on conductivity monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Mingkai; Liu, Yanchen; Cheng, Xun; Zhu, David Z.; Shi, Hanchang; Yuan, Zhiguo

2018-03-01

Quantifying rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration (RDII) in a sanitary sewer is difficult when RDII and overflow occur simultaneously. This study proposes a novel conductivity-based method for estimating RDII. The method separately decomposes rainfall-derived inflow (RDI) and rainfall-induced infiltration (RII) on the basis of conductivity data. Fast Fourier transform was adopted to analyze variations in the flow and water quality during dry weather. Nonlinear curve fitting based on the least squares algorithm was used to optimize parameters in the proposed RDII model. The method was successfully applied to real-life case studies, in which inflow and infiltration were successfully estimated for three typical rainfall events with total rainfall volumes of 6.25 mm (light), 28.15 mm (medium), and 178 mm (heavy). Uncertainties of model parameters were estimated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method and were found to be acceptable. Compared with traditional flow-based methods, the proposed approach exhibits distinct advantages in estimating RDII and overflow, particularly when the two processes happen simultaneously.

A new hydrological model for estimating extreme floods in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Receanu, R. G.; Hertig, J.-A.; Fallot, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Protection against flooding is very important for a country like Switzerland with a varied topography and many rivers and lakes. Because of the potential danger caused by extreme precipitation, structural and functional safety of large dams must be guaranteed to withstand the passage of an extreme flood. We introduce a new distributed hydrological model to calculate the PMF from a PMP which is spatially and temporally distributed using clouds. This model has permitted the estimation of extreme floods based on the distributed PMP and the taking into account of the specifics of alpine catchments, in particular the small size of the basins, the complex topography, the large lakes, snowmelt and glaciers. This is an important evolution compared to other models described in the literature, as they mainly use a uniform distribution of extreme precipitation all over the watershed. This paper presents the results of calculation with the developed rainfall-runoff model, taking into account measured rainfall and comparing results to observed flood events. This model includes three parts: surface runoff, underground flow and melting snow. Two Swiss watersheds are studied, for which rainfall data and flow rates are available for a considerably long period, including several episodes of heavy rainfall with high flow events. From these events, several simulations are performed to estimate the input model parameters such as soil roughness and average width of rivers in case of surface runoff. Following the same procedure, the parameters used in the underground flow simulation are also estimated indirectly, since direct underground flow and exfiltration measurements are difficult to obtain. A sensitivity analysis of the parameters is performed at the first step to define more precisely the boundary and initial conditions. The results for the two alpine basins, validated with the Nash equation, show a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation shows that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type.

Improved pressure contour analysis for estimating cardiac stroke volume using pulse wave velocity measurement.

PubMed

Kamoi, Shun; Pretty, Christopher; Balmer, Joel; Davidson, Shaun; Pironet, Antoine; Desaive, Thomas; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Chase, J Geoffrey

2017-04-24

Pressure contour analysis is commonly used to estimate cardiac performance for patients suffering from cardiovascular dysfunction in the intensive care unit. However, the existing techniques for continuous estimation of stroke volume (SV) from pressure measurement can be unreliable during hemodynamic instability, which is inevitable for patients requiring significant treatment. For this reason, pressure contour methods must be improved to capture changes in vascular properties and thus provide accurate conversion from pressure to flow. This paper presents a novel pressure contour method utilizing pulse wave velocity (PWV) measurement to capture vascular properties. A three-element Windkessel model combined with the reservoir-wave concept are used to decompose the pressure contour into components related to storage and flow. The model parameters are identified beat-to-beat from the water-hammer equation using measured PWV, wave component of the pressure, and an estimate of subject-specific aortic dimension. SV is then calculated by converting pressure to flow using identified model parameters. The accuracy of this novel method is investigated using data from porcine experiments (N = 4 Pietrain pigs, 20-24.5 kg), where hemodynamic properties were significantly altered using dobutamine, fluid administration, and mechanical ventilation. In the experiment, left ventricular volume was measured using admittance catheter, and aortic pressure waveforms were measured at two locations, the aortic arch and abdominal aorta. Bland-Altman analysis comparing gold-standard SV measured by the admittance catheter and estimated SV from the novel method showed average limits of agreement of ±26% across significant hemodynamic alterations. This result shows the method is capable of estimating clinically acceptable absolute SV values according to Critchely and Critchely. The novel pressure contour method presented can accurately estimate and track SV even when hemodynamic properties are significantly altered. Integrating PWV measurements into pressure contour analysis improves identification of beat-to-beat changes in Windkessel model parameters, and thus, provides accurate estimate of blood flow from measured pressure contour. The method has great potential for overcoming weaknesses associated with current pressure contour methods for estimating SV.

Estimating parameters and uncertainty for three-dimensional flow and transport in a highly heterogeneous sand box experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; McKenna, S. A.; Hart, D. B.

2010-12-01

Heterogeneity plays an important role in groundwater flow and contaminant transport in natural systems. Since it is impossible to directly measure spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity, predictions of solute transport based on mathematical models are always uncertain. While in most cases groundwater flow and tracer transport problems are investigated in two-dimensional (2D) systems, it is important to study more realistic and well-controlled 3D systems to fully evaluate inverse parameter estimation techniques and evaluate uncertainty in the resulting estimates. We used tracer concentration breakthrough curves (BTCs) obtained from a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique in a small flow cell (14 x 8 x 8 cm) that was packed with a known pattern of five different sands (i.e., zones) having cm-scale variability. In contrast to typical inversion systems with head, conductivity and concentration measurements at limited points, the MRI data included BTCs measured at a voxel scale (~0.2 cm in each dimension) over 13 x 8 x 8 cm with a well controlled boundary condition, but did not have direct measurements of head and conductivity. Hydraulic conductivity and porosity were conceptualized as spatial random fields and estimated using pilot points along layers of the 3D medium. The steady state water flow and solute transport were solved using MODFLOW and MODPATH. The inversion problem was solved with a nonlinear parameter estimation package - PEST. Two approaches to parameterization of the spatial fields are evaluated: 1) The detailed zone information was used as prior information to constrain the spatial impact of the pilot points and reduce the number of parameters; and 2) highly parameterized inversion at cm scale (e.g., 1664 parameters) using singular value decomposition (SVD) methodology to significantly reduce the run-time demands. Both results will be compared to measured BTCs. With MRI, it is easy to change the averaging scale of the observed concentration from point to cross-section. This comparison allows us to evaluate which method best matches experimental results at different scales. To evaluate the uncertainty in parameter estimation, the null space Monte Carlo method will be used to reduce computational burden of the development of calibration-constrained Monte Carlo based parameter fields. This study will illustrate how accurately a well-calibrated model can predict contaminant transport. This material is based upon work supported as part of the Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security (CFSES), an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences under Award Number DE-SC0001114. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Turbulent and Laminar Flow in Karst Conduits Under Unsteady Flow Conditions: Interpretation of Pumping Tests by Discrete Conduit-Continuum Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giese, M.; Reimann, T.; Bailly-Comte, V.; Maréchal, J.-C.; Sauter, M.; Geyer, T.

2018-03-01

Due to the duality in terms of (1) the groundwater flow field and (2) the discharge conditions, flow patterns of karst aquifer systems are complex. Estimated aquifer parameters may differ by several orders of magnitude from local (borehole) to regional (catchment) scale because of the large contrast in hydraulic parameters between matrix and conduit, their heterogeneity and anisotropy. One approach to deal with the scale effect problem in the estimation of hydraulic parameters of karst aquifers is the application of large-scale experiments such as long-term high-abstraction conduit pumping tests, stimulating measurable groundwater drawdown in both, the karst conduit system as well as the fractured matrix. The numerical discrete conduit-continuum modeling approach MODFLOW-2005 Conduit Flow Process Mode 1 (CFPM1) is employed to simulate laminar and nonlaminar conduit flow, induced by large-scale experiments, in combination with Darcian matrix flow. Effects of large-scale experiments were simulated for idealized settings. Subsequently, diagnostic plots and analyses of different fluxes are applied to interpret differences in the simulated conduit drawdown and general flow patterns. The main focus is set on the question to which extent different conduit flow regimes will affect the drawdown in conduit and matrix depending on the hydraulic properties of the conduit system, i.e., conduit diameter and relative roughness. In this context, CFPM1 is applied to investigate the importance of considering turbulent conditions for the simulation of karst conduit flow. This work quantifies the relative error that results from assuming laminar conduit flow for the interpretation of a synthetic large-scale pumping test in karst.

Estimation of Mass of Compact Object in H 1743-322 from 2010 and 2011 Outbursts using TCAF Solution and Spectral Index-QPO Frequency Correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molla, Aslam Ali; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.; Debnath, Dipak; Mondal, Santanu

2017-01-01

The well-known black hole candidate (BHC) H 1743-322 exhibited temporal and spectral variabilities during several outbursts. The variation of the accretion rates and flow geometry that change on a daily basis during each of the outbursts can be very well understood using the recent implementation of the two-component advective flow solution of the viscous transonic flow equations as an additive table model in XSPEC. This has dramatically improved our understanding of accretion flow dynamics. Most interestingly, the solution allows us to treat the mass of the BHC as a free parameter and its mass could be estimated from spectral fits. In this paper, we fitted the data of two successive outbursts of H 1743-322 in 2010 and 2011 and studied the evolution of accretion flow parameters, such as two-component (Keplerian and sub-Keplerian) accretion rates, shock location (I.e., size of the Compton cloud), etc. We assume that the model normalization remains the same across the states in both these outbursts. We used this to estimate the mass of the black hole and found that it comes out in the range of 9.25{--}12.86 {M}⊙ . For the sake of comparison, we also estimated mass using the Photon index versus Quasi Periodic Oscillation frequency correlation method, which turns out to be 11.65+/- 0.67 {M}⊙ using GRO J1655-40 as a reference source. Combining these two estimates, the most probable mass of the compact object becomes {11.21}-1.96+1.65 {M}⊙ .

Modeling air concentration over macro roughness conditions by Artificial Intelligence techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshni, T.; Pagliara, S.

2018-05-01

Aeration is improved in rivers by the turbulence created in the flow over macro and intermediate roughness conditions. Macro and intermediate roughness flow conditions are generated by flows over block ramps or rock chutes. The measurements are taken in uniform flow region. Efficacy of soft computing methods in modeling hydraulic parameters are not common so far. In this study, modeling efficiencies of MPMR model and FFNN model are found for estimating the air concentration over block ramps under macro roughness conditions. The experimental data are used for training and testing phases. Potential capability of MPMR and FFNN model in estimating air concentration are proved through this study.

1r2dinv: A finite-difference model for inverse analysis of two dimensional linear or radial groundwater flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Butler, J.J.

2001-01-01

We have developed a program for inverse analysis of two-dimensional linear or radial groundwater flow problems. The program, 1r2dinv, uses standard finite difference techniques to solve the groundwater flow equation for a horizontal or vertical plane with heterogeneous properties. In radial mode, the program simulates flow to a well in a vertical plane, transforming the radial flow equation into an equivalent problem in Cartesian coordinates. The physical parameters in the model are horizontal or x-direction hydraulic conductivity, anisotropy ratio (vertical to horizontal conductivity in a vertical model, y-direction to x-direction in a horizontal model), and specific storage. The program allows the user to specify arbitrary and independent zonations of these three parameters and also to specify which zonal parameter values are known and which are unknown. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to estimate parameters from observed head values. Particularly powerful features of the program are the ability to perform simultaneous analysis of heads from different tests and the inclusion of the wellbore in the radial mode. These capabilities allow the program to be used for analysis of suites of well tests, such as multilevel slug tests or pumping tests in a tomographic format. The combination of information from tests stressing different vertical levels in an aquifer provides the means for accurately estimating vertical variations in conductivity, a factor profoundly influencing contaminant transport in the subsurface. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical Inference of a RANS closure for a Jet-in-Crossflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyse, Jan; Edeling, Wouter; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2016-11-01

The jet-in-crossflow is found in several engineering applications, such as discrete film cooling for turbine blades, where a coolant injected through hols in the blade's surface protects the component from the hot gases leaving the combustion chamber. Experimental measurements using MRI techniques have been completed for a single hole injection into a turbulent crossflow, providing full 3D averaged velocity field. For such flows of engineering interest, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure models are often the only viable computational option. However, RANS models are known to provide poor predictions in the region close to the injection point. Since these models are calibrated on simple canonical flow problems, the obtained closure coefficient estimates are unlikely to extrapolate well to more complex flows. We will therefore calibrate the parameters of a RANS model using statistical inference techniques informed by the experimental jet-in-crossflow data. The obtained probabilistic parameter estimates can in turn be used to compute flow fields with quantified uncertainty. Stanford Graduate Fellowship in Science and Engineering.

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios; Robbins, Gary A.

2013-01-01

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Ego-motion based on EM for bionic navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Xiaofeng; Wang, L. J.; Liu, J. G.

2015-12-01

Researches have proved that flying insects such as bees can achieve efficient and robust flight control, and biologists have explored some biomimetic principles regarding how they control flight. Based on those basic studies and principles acquired from the flying insects, this paper proposes a different solution of recovering ego-motion for low level navigation. Firstly, a new type of entropy flow is provided to calculate the motion parameters. Secondly, EKF, which has been used for navigation for some years to correct accumulated error, and estimation-Maximization, which is always used to estimate parameters, are put together to determine the ego-motion estimation of aerial vehicles. Numerical simulation on MATLAB has proved that this navigation system provides more accurate position and smaller mean absolute error than pure optical flow navigation. This paper has done pioneering work in bionic mechanism to space navigation.

Estimating the hydraulic parameters of a confined aquifer based on the response of groundwater levels to seismic Rayleigh waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaolong; Xiang, Yang; Shi, Zheming

2018-05-01

Groundwater flow models implemented to manage regional water resources require aquifer hydraulic parameters. Traditional methods for obtaining these parameters include laboratory experiments, field tests and model inversions, and each are potentially hindered by their unique limitations. Here, we propose a methodology for estimating hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficients using the spectral characteristics of the coseismic groundwater-level oscillations and seismic Rayleigh waves. The results from Well X10 are consistent with the variations and spectral characteristics of the water-level oscillations and seismic waves and present an estimated hydraulic conductivity of approximately 1 × 10-3 m s-1 and storativity of 15 × 10-6. The proposed methodology for estimating hydraulic parameters in confined aquifers is a practical and novel approach for groundwater management and seismic precursor anomaly analyses.

40 CFR 98.445 - Procedures for estimating missing data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Procedures for estimating missing data... Procedures for estimating missing data. A complete record of all measured parameters used in the GHG... following missing data procedures: (a) A quarterly flow rate of CO2 received that is missing must be...

A real-time digital program for estimating aircraft stability and control parameters from flight test data by using the maximum likelihood method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grove, R. D.; Mayhew, S. C.

1973-01-01

A computer program (Langley program C1123) has been developed for estimating aircraft stability and control parameters from flight test data. These parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure implemented on a real-time digital simulation system, which uses the Control Data 6600 computer. This system allows the investigator to interact with the program in order to obtain satisfactory results. Part of this system, the control and display capabilities, is described for this program. This report also describes the computer program by presenting the program variables, subroutines, flow charts, listings, and operational features. Program usage is demonstrated with a test case using pseudo or simulated flight data.

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations

PubMed Central

Simon, Aaron B.; Dubowitz, David J.; Blockley, Nicholas P.; Buxton, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2′ as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2′, we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2′-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2′- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2′-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2. PMID:26790354

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations.

PubMed

Simon, Aaron B; Dubowitz, David J; Blockley, Nicholas P; Buxton, Richard B

2016-04-01

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2' as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2', we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2'-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2'- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2'-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

A Systematic Approach for Model-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2010-01-01

A requirement for effective aircraft engine performance estimation is the ability to account for engine degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. This paper presents a linear point design methodology for minimizing the degradation-induced error in model-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications. The technique specifically focuses on the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown health parameters than available sensor measurements. A condition for Kalman filter-based estimation is that the number of health parameters estimated cannot exceed the number of sensed measurements. In this paper, the estimated health parameter vector will be replaced by a reduced order tuner vector whose dimension is equivalent to the sensed measurement vector. The reduced order tuner vector is systematically selected to minimize the theoretical mean squared estimation error of a maximum a posteriori estimator formulation. This paper derives theoretical estimation errors at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the estimation accuracy achieved through conventional maximum a posteriori and Kalman filter estimation approaches. Maximum a posteriori estimation results demonstrate that reduced order tuning parameter vectors can be found that approximate the accuracy of estimating all health parameters directly. Kalman filter estimation results based on the same reduced order tuning parameter vectors demonstrate that significantly improved estimation accuracy can be achieved over the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuner vector. However, additional development is necessary to fully extend the methodology to Kalman filter-based estimation applications.

Impacts of different types of measurements on estimating unsaturated flow parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Liangsheng; Song, Xuehang; Tong, Juxiu; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Qiuru

2015-05-01

This paper assesses the value of different types of measurements for estimating soil hydraulic parameters. A numerical method based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is presented to solely or jointly assimilate point-scale soil water head data, point-scale soil water content data, surface soil water content data and groundwater level data. This study investigates the performance of EnKF under different types of data, the potential worth contained in these data, and the factors that may affect estimation accuracy. Results show that for all types of data, smaller measurements errors lead to faster convergence to the true values. Higher accuracy measurements are required to improve the parameter estimation if a large number of unknown parameters need to be identified simultaneously. The data worth implied by the surface soil water content data and groundwater level data is prone to corruption by a deviated initial guess. Surface soil moisture data are capable of identifying soil hydraulic parameters for the top layers, but exert less or no influence on deeper layers especially when estimating multiple parameters simultaneously. Groundwater level is one type of valuable information to infer the soil hydraulic parameters. However, based on the approach used in this study, the estimates from groundwater level data may suffer severe degradation if a large number of parameters must be identified. Combined use of two or more types of data is helpful to improve the parameter estimation.

3D Reconstruction and Approximation of Vegetation Geometry for Modeling of Within-canopy Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, S. M.; Lynn, K.; Lienard, J.; Strigul, N.; Mullarney, J. C.; Norris, B. K.; Bryan, K. R.

2016-02-01

Aquatic vegetation can shelter coastlines from waves and currents, sometimes resulting in accretion of fine sediments. We developed a photogrammetric technique for estimating the key geometric vegetation parameters that are required for modeling of within-canopy flows. Accurate estimates of vegetation geometry and density are essential to refine hydrodynamic models, but accurate, convenient, and time-efficient methodologies for measuring complex canopy geometries have been lacking. The novel approach presented here builds on recent progress in photogrammetry and computer vision. We analyzed the geometry of aerial mangrove roots, called pneumatophores, in Vietnam's Mekong River Delta. Although comparatively thin, pneumatophores are more numerous than mangrove trunks, and thus influence near bed flow and sediment transport. Quadrats (1 m2) were placed at low tide among pneumatophores. Roots were counted and measured for height and diameter. Photos were taken from multiple angles around each quadrat. Relative camera locations and orientations were estimated from key features identified in multiple images using open-source software (VisualSfM). Next, a dense 3D point cloud was produced. Finally, algorithms were developed for automated estimation of pneumatophore geometry from the 3D point cloud. We found good agreement between hand-measured and photogrammetric estimates of key geometric parameters, including mean stem diameter, total number of stems, and frontal area density. These methods can reduce time spent measuring in the field, thereby enabling future studies to refine models of water flows and sediment transport within heterogenous vegetation canopies.

ITOUGH2(UNIX). Inverse Modeling for TOUGH2 Family of Multiphase Flow Simulators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finsterle, S.

1999-03-01

ITOUGH2 provides inverse modeling capabilities for the TOUGH2 family of numerical simulators for non-isothermal multiphase flows in fractured-porous media. The ITOUGH2 can be used for estimating parameters by automatic modeling calibration, for sensitivity analyses, and for uncertainity propagation analyses (linear and Monte Carlo simulations). Any input parameter to the TOUGH2 simulator can be estimated based on any type of observation for which a corresponding TOUGH2 output is calculated. ITOUGH2 solves a non-linear least-squares problem using direct or gradient-based minimization algorithms. A detailed residual and error analysis is performed, which includes the evaluation of model identification criteria. ITOUGH2 can also bemore » run in forward mode, solving subsurface flow problems related to nuclear waste isolation, oil, gas, and geothermal resevoir engineering, and vadose zone hydrology.« less

A theoretical description of arterial pressure-flow relationships with verification in the isolated hindlimb of the dog.

PubMed

Jackman, A P; Green, J F

1990-01-01

We developed and tested a new two-compartment serial model of the arterial vasculature which unifies the capacitance (downstream arterial compliance) and waterfall (constant downstream pressure load) theories of blood flow through the arteries. In this model, blood drains from an upstream compliance through a resistance into a downstream compliance which empties into the veins through a downstream resistance which terminates in a constant pressure load. Using transient arterial pressure data obtained from an isolated canine hindlimb preparation, we tested this model, using a stop-flow technique. Numerical parameter estimation techniques were used to estimate the physiologic parameters of the model. The downstream compliance was found to be more than ten times larger than the upstream compliance and the constant pressure load was significantly above venous pressures but decreased in response to vasodilation. Our results support the applicability of both the capacitance and waterfall theories.

Geohydrology and evapotranspiration at Franklin Lake playa, Inyo County, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Czarnecki, J.B.

1997-12-31

Franklin Lake playa is one of the principal discharge areas of the Furnace Creek Ranch-Alkali Flat ground-water-flow system in southern Nevada and adjacent California. Yucca Mountain, Nevada, located within this flow system, is being evaluated by the US Department of Energy to determine its suitability as a potential site for a high-level nuclear-waste repository. To assist the U.S. Department of Energy with its evaluation of the Yucca Mountain site, the US Geological Survey developed a parameter-estimation model of the Furnace Creek Ranch-Alkali Flat ground-water-flow system. Results from sensitivity analyses made using the parameter-estimation model indicated that simulated rates of evapotranspirationmore » at Franklin Lake playa had the largest effect on the calculation of transmissivity values at Yucca Mountain of all the model-boundary conditions and, therefore, that evapotranspiration required careful definition.« less

Linear model describing three components of flow in karst aquifers using 18O data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, L.D.

2004-01-01

The stable isotope of oxygen, 18O, is used as a naturally occurring ground-water tracer. Time-series data for ??18O are analyzed to model the distinct responses and relative proportions of the conduit, intermediate, and diffuse flow components in karst aquifers. This analysis also describes mathematically the dynamics of the transient fluid interchange between conduits and diffusive networks. Conduit and intermediate flow are described by linear-systems methods, whereas diffuse flow is described by mass-balance methods. An automated optimization process estimates parameters of lognormal, Pearson type III, and gamma distributions, which are used as transfer functions in linear-systems analysis. Diffuse flow and mixing parameters also are estimated by these optimization methods. Results indicate the relative proximity of a well to a main conduit flowpath and can help to predict the movement and residence times of potential contaminants. The three-component linear model is applied to five wells, which respond to changes in the isotopic composition of point recharge water from a sinking stream in the Madison aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Flow velocities as much as 540 m/d and system memories of as much as 71 years are estimated by this method. Also, the mean, median, and standard deviation of traveltimes; time to peak response; and the relative fraction of flow for each of the three components are determined for these wells. This analysis infers that flow may branch apart and rejoin as a result of an anastomotic (or channeled) karst network.

Generalised form of a power law threshold function for rainfall-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cepeda, Jose; Díaz, Manuel Roberto; Nadim, Farrokh; Høeg, Kaare; Elverhøi, Anders

2010-05-01

The following new function is proposed for estimating thresholds for rainfall-triggered landslides: I = α1Anα2Dβ, where I is rainfall intensity in mm/h, D is rainfall duration in h, An is the n-hours or n-days antecedent precipitation, and α1, α2, β and n are threshold parameters. A threshold model that combines two functions with different durations of antecedent precipitation is also introduced. A storm observation exceeds the threshold when the storm parameters are located at or above the two functions simultaneously. A novel optimisation procedure for estimating the threshold parameters is proposed using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. The new threshold function and optimisation procedure are applied for estimating thresholds for triggering of debris flows in the Western Metropolitan Area of San Salvador (AMSS), El Salvador, where up to 500 casualties were produced by a single event. The resulting thresholds are I = 2322 A7d-1D-0.43 and I = 28534 A150d-1D-0.43 for debris flows having volumes greater than 3000 m3. Thresholds are also derived for debris flows greater than 200 000 m3 and for hyperconcentrated flows initiating in burned areas caused by forest fires. The new thresholds show an improved performance compared to the traditional formulations, indicated by a reduction in false alarms from 51 to 5 for the 3000 m3 thresholds and from 6 to 0 false alarms for the 200 000 m3 thresholds.

Evaluation of unconfined-aquifer parameters from pumping test data by nonlinear least squares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, Manoutchehr; Wench, Allen

1997-05-01

Nonlinear least squares (NLS) with automatic differentiation was used to estimate aquifer parameters from drawdown data obtained from published pumping tests conducted in homogeneous, water-table aquifers. The method is based on a technique that seeks to minimize the squares of residuals between observed and calculated drawdown subject to bounds that are placed on the parameter of interest. The analytical model developed by Neuman for flow to a partially penetrating well of infinitesimal diameter situated in an infinite, homogeneous and anisotropic aquifer was used to obtain calculated drawdown. NLS was first applied to synthetic drawdown data from a hypothetical but realistic aquifer to demonstrate that the relevant hydraulic parameters (storativity, specific yield, and horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity) can be evaluated accurately. Next the method was used to estimate the parameters at three field sites with widely varying hydraulic properties. NLS produced unbiased estimates of the aquifer parameters that are close to the estimates obtained with the same data using a visual curve-matching approach. Small differences in the estimates are a consequence of subjective interpretation introduced in the visual approach.

Evaluation of unconfined-aquifer parameters from pumping test data by nonlinear least squares

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heidari, M.; Moench, A.

1997-01-01

Nonlinear least squares (NLS) with automatic differentiation was used to estimate aquifer parameters from drawdown data obtained from published pumping tests conducted in homogeneous, water-table aquifers. The method is based on a technique that seeks to minimize the squares of residuals between observed and calculated drawdown subject to bounds that are placed on the parameter of interest. The analytical model developed by Neuman for flow to a partially penetrating well of infinitesimal diameter situated in an infinite, homogeneous and anisotropic aquifer was used to obtain calculated drawdown. NLS was first applied to synthetic drawdown data from a hypothetical but realistic aquifer to demonstrate that the relevant hydraulic parameters (storativity, specific yield, and horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity) can be evaluated accurately. Next the method was used to estimate the parameters at three field sites with widely varying hydraulic properties. NLS produced unbiased estimates of the aquifer parameters that are close to the estimates obtained with the same data using a visual curve-matching approach. Small differences in the estimates are a consequence of subjective interpretation introduced in the visual approach.

Extracting Prior Distributions from a Large Dataset of In-Situ Measurements to Support SWOT-based Estimation of River Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, M.; Gleason, C. J.

2017-12-01

The upcoming (2021) Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) NASA satellite mission aims, in part, to estimate discharge on major rivers worldwide using reach-scale measurements of stream width, slope, and height. Current formalizations of channel and floodplain hydraulics are insufficient to fully constrain this problem mathematically, resulting in an infinitely large solution set for any set of satellite observations. Recent work has reformulated this problem in a Bayesian statistical setting, in which the likelihood distributions derive directly from hydraulic flow-law equations. When coupled with prior distributions on unknown flow-law parameters, this formulation probabilistically constrains the parameter space, and results in a computationally tractable description of discharge. Using a curated dataset of over 200,000 in-situ acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from over 10,000 USGS gaging stations throughout the United States, we developed empirical prior distributions for flow-law parameters that are not observable by SWOT, but that are required in order to estimate discharge. This analysis quantified prior uncertainties on quantities including cross-sectional area, at-a-station hydraulic geometry width exponent, and discharge variability, that are dependent on SWOT-observable variables including reach-scale statistics of width and height. When compared against discharge estimation approaches that do not use this prior information, the Bayesian approach using ADCP-derived priors demonstrated consistently improved performance across a range of performance metrics. This Bayesian approach formally transfers information from in-situ gaging stations to remote-sensed estimation of discharge, in which the desired quantities are not directly observable. Further investigation using large in-situ datasets is therefore a promising way forward in improving satellite-based estimates of river discharge.

Using heat as a tracer to estimate spatially distributed mean residence times in the hyporheic zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naranjo, R. C.; Pohll, G. M.; Stone, M. C.; Niswonger, R. G.; McKay, W. A.

2013-12-01

Biogeochemical reactions that occur in the hyporheic zone are highly dependent on the time solutes are in contact with riverbed sediments. In this investigation, we developed a two-dimensional longitudinal flow and solute transport model to estimate the spatial distribution of mean residence time in the hyporheic zone along a riffle-pool sequence to gain a better understanding of nitrogen reactions. A flow and transport model was developed to estimate spatially distributed mean residence times and was calibrated using observations of temperature and pressure. The approach used in this investigation accounts for the mixing of ages given advection and dispersion. Uncertainty of flow and transport parameters was evaluated using standard Monte-Carlo analysis and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Results of parameter estimation indicate the presence of a low-permeable zone in the riffle area that induced horizontal flow at shallow depth within the riffle area. This establishes shallow and localized flow paths and limits deep vertical exchange. From the optimal model, mean residence times were found to be relatively long (9 - 40 days). The uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity resulted in a mean interquartile range of 13 days across all piezometers and was reduced by 24% with the inclusion of temperature and pressure observations. To a lesser extent, uncertainty in streambed porosity and dispersivity resulted in a mean interquartile range of 2.2- and 4.7 days, respectively. Alternative conceptual models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity in simulating mean residence times in a riffle-pool sequence. It is demonstrated that spatially variable mean residence time beneath a riffle-pool system does not conform to simple conceptual models of hyporheic flow through a riffle-pool sequence. Rather, the mixing behavior between the river and the hyporheic flow are largely controlled by layered heterogeneity and anisotropy of the subsurface.

Bayesian estimation of the transmissivity spatial structure from pumping test data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Mehmet Taner; Copty, Nadim K.; Trinchero, Paolo; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier

2017-06-01

Estimating the statistical parameters (mean, variance, and integral scale) that define the spatial structure of the transmissivity or hydraulic conductivity fields is a fundamental step for the accurate prediction of subsurface flow and contaminant transport. In practice, the determination of the spatial structure is a challenge because of spatial heterogeneity and data scarcity. In this paper, we describe a novel approach that uses time drawdown data from multiple pumping tests to determine the transmissivity statistical spatial structure. The method builds on the pumping test interpretation procedure of Copty et al. (2011) (Continuous Derivation method, CD), which uses the time-drawdown data and its time derivative to estimate apparent transmissivity values as a function of radial distance from the pumping well. A Bayesian approach is then used to infer the statistical parameters of the transmissivity field by combining prior information about the parameters and the likelihood function expressed in terms of radially-dependent apparent transmissivities determined from pumping tests. A major advantage of the proposed Bayesian approach is that the likelihood function is readily determined from randomly generated multiple realizations of the transmissivity field, without the need to solve the groundwater flow equation. Applying the method to synthetically-generated pumping test data, we demonstrate that, through a relatively simple procedure, information on the spatial structure of the transmissivity may be inferred from pumping tests data. It is also shown that the prior parameter distribution has a significant influence on the estimation procedure, given the non-uniqueness of the estimation procedure. Results also indicate that the reliability of the estimated transmissivity statistical parameters increases with the number of available pumping tests.

Parameter interdependence and uncertainty induced by lumping in a hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Mark R.; Doherty, John

2007-05-01

Throughout the world, watershed modeling is undertaken using lumped parameter hydrologic models that represent real-world processes in a manner that is at once abstract, but nevertheless relies on algorithms that reflect real-world processes and parameters that reflect real-world hydraulic properties. In most cases, values are assigned to the parameters of such models through calibration against flows at watershed outlets. One criterion by which the utility of the model and the success of the calibration process are judged is that realistic values are assigned to parameters through this process. This study employs regularization theory to examine the relationship between lumped parameters and corresponding real-world hydraulic properties. It demonstrates that any kind of parameter lumping or averaging can induce a substantial amount of "structural noise," which devices such as Box-Cox transformation of flows and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling of residuals are unlikely to render homoscedastic and uncorrelated. Furthermore, values estimated for lumped parameters are unlikely to represent average values of the hydraulic properties after which they are named and are often contaminated to a greater or lesser degree by the values of hydraulic properties which they do not purport to represent at all. As a result, the question of how rigidly they should be bounded during the parameter estimation process is still an open one.

Finite-element simulation of ground-water flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada-California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czarnecki, J.B.; Waddell, R.K.

1984-01-01

A finite-element model of the groundwater flow system in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain at the Nevada Test Site was developed using parameter estimation techniques. The model simulated steady-state ground-water flow occurring in tuffaceous, volcanic , and carbonate rocks, and alluvial aquifers. Hydraulic gradients in the modeled area range from 0.00001 for carbonate aquifers to 0.19 for barriers in tuffaceous rocks. Three model parameters were used in estimating transmissivity in six zones. Simulated hydraulic-head values range from about 1,200 m near Timber Mountain to about 300 m near Furnace Creek Ranch. Model residuals for simulated versus measured hydraulic heads range from -28.6 to 21.4 m; most are less than +/-7 m, indicating an acceptable representation of the hydrologic system by the model. Sensitivity analyses of the model 's flux boundary condition variables were performed to assess the effect of varying boundary fluxes on the calculation of estimated model transmissivities. Varying the flux variables representing discharge at Franklin Lake and Furnace Creek Ranch has greater effect than varying other flux variables. (Author 's abstract)

Transport parameter estimation from lymph measurements and the Patlak equation.

PubMed

Watson, P D; Wolf, M B

1992-01-01

Two methods of estimating protein transport parameters for plasma-to-lymph transport data are presented. Both use IBM-compatible computers to obtain least-squares parameters for the solvent drag reflection coefficient and the permeability-surface area product using the Patlak equation. A matrix search approach is described, and the speed and convenience of this are compared with a commercially available gradient method. The results from both of these methods were different from those of a method reported by Reed, Townsley, and Taylor [Am. J. Physiol. 257 (Heart Circ. Physiol. 26): H1037-H1041, 1989]. It is shown that the Reed et al. method contains a systematic error. It is also shown that diffusion always plays an important role for transmembrane transport at the exit end of a membrane channel under all conditions of lymph flow rate and that the statement that diffusion becomes zero at high lymph flow rate depends on a mathematical definition of diffusion.

Modeling of Density-Dependent Flow based on the Thermodynamically Constrained Averaging Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigand, T. M.; Schultz, P. B.; Kelley, C. T.; Miller, C. T.; Gray, W. G.

2016-12-01

The thermodynamically constrained averaging theory (TCAT) has been used to formulate general classes of porous medium models, including new models for density-dependent flow. The TCAT approach provides advantages that include a firm connection between the microscale, or pore scale, and the macroscale; a thermodynamically consistent basis; explicit inclusion of factors such as a diffusion that arises from gradients associated with pressure and activity and the ability to describe both high and low concentration displacement. The TCAT model is presented and closure relations for the TCAT model are postulated based on microscale averages and a parameter estimation is performed on a subset of the experimental data. Due to the sharpness of the fronts, an adaptive moving mesh technique was used to ensure grid independent solutions within the run time constraints. The optimized parameters are then used for forward simulations and compared to the set of experimental data not used for the parameter estimation.

Unsaturated flow characterization utilizing water content data collected within the capillary fringe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baehr, Arthur; Reilly, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

An analysis is presented to determine unsaturated zone hydraulic parameters based on detailed water content profiles, which can be readily acquired during hydrological investigations. Core samples taken through the unsaturated zone allow for the acquisition of gravimetrically determined water content data as a function of elevation at 3 inch intervals. This dense spacing of data provides several measurements of the water content within the capillary fringe, which are utilized to determine capillary pressure function parameters via least-squares calibration. The water content data collected above the capillary fringe are used to calculate dimensionless flow as a function of elevation providing a snapshot characterization of flow through the unsaturated zone. The water content at a flow stagnation point provides an in situ estimate of specific yield. In situ determinations of capillary pressure function parameters utilizing this method, together with particle-size distributions, can provide a valuable supplement to data libraries of unsaturated zone hydraulic parameters. The method is illustrated using data collected from plots within an agricultural research facility in Wisconsin.

A Robust Method for Ego-Motion Estimation in Urban Environment Using Stereo Camera.

PubMed

Ci, Wenyan; Huang, Yingping

2016-10-17

Visual odometry estimates the ego-motion of an agent (e.g., vehicle and robot) using image information and is a key component for autonomous vehicles and robotics. This paper proposes a robust and precise method for estimating the 6-DoF ego-motion, using a stereo rig with optical flow analysis. An objective function fitted with a set of feature points is created by establishing the mathematical relationship between optical flow, depth and camera ego-motion parameters through the camera's 3-dimensional motion and planar imaging model. Accordingly, the six motion parameters are computed by minimizing the objective function, using the iterative Levenberg-Marquard method. One of key points for visual odometry is that the feature points selected for the computation should contain inliers as much as possible. In this work, the feature points and their optical flows are initially detected by using the Kanade-Lucas-Tomasi (KLT) algorithm. A circle matching is followed to remove the outliers caused by the mismatching of the KLT algorithm. A space position constraint is imposed to filter out the moving points from the point set detected by the KLT algorithm. The Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is employed to further refine the feature point set, i.e., to eliminate the effects of outliers. The remaining points are tracked to estimate the ego-motion parameters in the subsequent frames. The approach presented here is tested on real traffic videos and the results prove the robustness and precision of the method.

A Robust Method for Ego-Motion Estimation in Urban Environment Using Stereo Camera

PubMed Central

Ci, Wenyan; Huang, Yingping

2016-01-01

Visual odometry estimates the ego-motion of an agent (e.g., vehicle and robot) using image information and is a key component for autonomous vehicles and robotics. This paper proposes a robust and precise method for estimating the 6-DoF ego-motion, using a stereo rig with optical flow analysis. An objective function fitted with a set of feature points is created by establishing the mathematical relationship between optical flow, depth and camera ego-motion parameters through the camera’s 3-dimensional motion and planar imaging model. Accordingly, the six motion parameters are computed by minimizing the objective function, using the iterative Levenberg–Marquard method. One of key points for visual odometry is that the feature points selected for the computation should contain inliers as much as possible. In this work, the feature points and their optical flows are initially detected by using the Kanade–Lucas–Tomasi (KLT) algorithm. A circle matching is followed to remove the outliers caused by the mismatching of the KLT algorithm. A space position constraint is imposed to filter out the moving points from the point set detected by the KLT algorithm. The Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is employed to further refine the feature point set, i.e., to eliminate the effects of outliers. The remaining points are tracked to estimate the ego-motion parameters in the subsequent frames. The approach presented here is tested on real traffic videos and the results prove the robustness and precision of the method. PMID:27763508

Regional and longitudinal estimation of product lifespan distribution: a case study for automobiles and a simplified estimation method.

PubMed

Oguchi, Masahiro; Fuse, Masaaki

2015-02-03

Product lifespan estimates are important information for understanding progress toward sustainable consumption and estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products. Publications reported actual lifespan of products; however, quantitative data are still limited for many countries and years. This study presents regional and longitudinal estimation of lifespan distribution of consumer durables, taking passenger cars as an example, and proposes a simplified method for estimating product lifespan distribution. We estimated lifespan distribution parameters for 17 countries based on the age profile of in-use cars. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the shape parameter of the lifespan distribution can be replaced by a constant value for all the countries and years. This enabled a simplified estimation that does not require detailed data on the age profile. Applying the simplified method, we estimated the trend in average lifespans of passenger cars from 2000 to 2009 for 20 countries. Average lifespan differed greatly between countries (9-23 years) and was increasing in many countries. This suggests consumer behavior differs greatly among countries and has changed over time, even in developed countries. The results suggest that inappropriate assumptions of average lifespan may cause significant inaccuracy in estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products.

Detection of obstacles on runway using Ego-Motion compensation and tracking of significant features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasturi, Rangachar (Principal Investigator); Camps, Octavia (Principal Investigator); Gandhi, Tarak; Devadiga, Sadashiva

1996-01-01

This report describes a method for obstacle detection on a runway for autonomous navigation and landing of an aircraft. Detection is done in the presence of extraneous features such as tiremarks. Suitable features are extracted from the image and warping using approximately known camera and plane parameters is performed in order to compensate ego-motion as far as possible. Residual disparity after warping is estimated using an optical flow algorithm. Features are tracked from frame to frame so as to obtain more reliable estimates of their motion. Corrections are made to motion parameters with the residual disparities using a robust method, and features having large residual disparities are signaled as obstacles. Sensitivity analysis of the procedure is also studied. Nelson's optical flow constraint is proposed to separate moving obstacles from stationary ones. A Bayesian framework is used at every stage so that the confidence in the estimates can be determined.

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

A simple approximation for larval retention around reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; Connolly, Sean R.

2011-09-01

Estimating larval retention at individual reefs by local scale three-dimensional flows is a significant problem for understanding, and predicting, larval dispersal. Determining larval dispersal commonly involves the use of computationally demanding and expensively calibrated/validated hydrodynamic models that resolve reef wake eddies. This study models variation in larval retention times for a range of reef shapes and circulation regimes, using a reef-scale three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. It also explores how well larval retention time can be estimated based on the "Island Wake Parameter", a measure of the degree of flow turbulence in the wake of reefs that is a simple function of flow speed, reef dimension, and vertical diffusion. The mean residence times found in the present study (0.48-5.64 days) indicate substantial potential for self-recruitment of species whose larvae are passive, or weak swimmers, for the first several days after release. Results also reveal strong and significant relationships between the Island Wake Parameter and mean residence time, explaining 81-92% of the variability in retention among reefs across a range of unidirectional flow speeds and tidal regimes. These findings suggest that good estimates of larval retention may be obtained from relatively coarse-scale characteristics of the flow, and basic features of reef geomorphology. Such approximations may be a valuable tool for modeling connectivity and meta-population dynamics over large spatial scales, where explicitly characterizing fine-scale flows around reef requires a prohibitive amount of computation and extensive model calibration.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

Empirical flow parameters : a tool for hydraulic model validity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Burley, Thomas E.; Cleveland, Theodore G.

2013-01-01

The objectives of this project were (1) To determine and present from existing data in Texas, relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section velocity, and other hydraulic factors, to produce charts such as Figure 1 and to produce empirical distributions of the various flow parameters to provide a methodology to "check if model results are way off!"; (2) To produce a statistical regional tool to estimate mean velocity or other selected parameters for storm flows or other conditional discharges at ungauged locations (most bridge crossings) in Texas to provide a secondary way to compare such values to a conventional hydraulic modeling approach. (3.) To present ancillary values such as Froude number, stream power, Rosgen channel classification, sinuosity, and other selected characteristics (readily determinable from existing data) to provide additional information to engineers concerned with the hydraulic-soil-foundation component of transportation infrastructure.

Comparison of different filter methods for data assimilation in the unsaturated zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Natascha; Berkhahn, Simon; Erdal, Daniel; Neuweiler, Insa

2016-04-01

The unsaturated zone is an important compartment, which plays a role for the division of terrestrial water fluxes into surface runoff, groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration. For data assimilation in coupled systems it is therefore important to have a good representation of the unsaturated zone in the model. Flow processes in the unsaturated zone have all the typical features of flow in porous media: Processes can have long memory and as observations are scarce, hydraulic model parameters cannot be determined easily. However, they are important for the quality of model predictions. On top of that, the established flow models are highly non-linear. For these reasons, the use of the popular Ensemble Kalman filter as a data assimilation method to estimate state and parameters in unsaturated zone models could be questioned. With respect to the long process memory in the subsurface, it has been suggested that iterative filters and smoothers may be more suitable for parameter estimation in unsaturated media. We test the performance of different iterative filters and smoothers for data assimilation with a focus on parameter updates in the unsaturated zone. In particular we compare the Iterative Ensemble Kalman Filter and Smoother as introduced by Bocquet and Sakov (2013) as well as the Confirming Ensemble Kalman Filter and the modified Restart Ensemble Kalman Filter proposed by Song et al. (2014) to the original Ensemble Kalman Filter (Evensen, 2009). This is done with simple test cases generated numerically. We consider also test examples with layering structure, as a layering structure is often found in natural soils. We assume that observations are water content, obtained from TDR probes or other observation methods sampling relatively small volumes. Particularly in larger data assimilation frameworks, a reasonable balance between computational effort and quality of results has to be found. Therefore, we compare computational costs of the different methods as well as the quality of open loop model predictions and the estimated parameters. Bocquet, M. and P. Sakov, 2013: Joint state and parameter estimation with an iterative ensemble Kalman smoother, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 20(5): 803-818. Evensen, G., 2009: Data assimilation: The ensemble Kalman filter. Springer Science & Business Media. Song, X.H., L.S. Shi, M. Ye, J.Z. Yang and I.M. Navon, 2014: Numerical comparison of iterative ensemble Kalman filters for unsaturated flow inverse modeling. Vadose Zone Journal 13(2), 10.2136/vzj2013.05.0083.

Modeling of a pitching and plunging airfoil using experimental flow field and load measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troshin, Victor; Seifert, Avraham

2018-01-01

The main goal of the current paper is to outline a low-order modeling procedure of a heaving airfoil in a still fluid using experimental measurements. Due to its relative simplicity, the proposed procedure is applicable for the analysis of flow fields within complex and unsteady geometries and it is suitable for analyzing the data obtained by experimentation. Currently, this procedure is used to model and predict the flow field evolution using a small number of low profile load sensors and flow field measurements. A time delay neural network is used to estimate the flow field. The neural network estimates the amplitudes of the most energetic modes using four sensory inputs. The modes are calculated using proper orthogonal decomposition of the flow field data obtained experimentally by time-resolved, phase-locked particle imaging velocimetry. To permit the use of proper orthogonal decomposition, the measured flow field is mapped onto a stationary domain using volume preserving transformation. The analysis performed by the model showed good estimation quality within the parameter range used in the training procedure. However, the performance deteriorates for cases out of this range. This situation indicates that, to improve the robustness of the model, both the decomposition and the training data sets must be diverse in terms of input parameter space. In addition, the results suggest that the property of volume preservation of the mapping does not affect the model quality as long as the model is not based on the Galerkin approximation. Thus, it may be relaxed for cases with more complex geometry and kinematics.

Probing Reliability of Transport Phenomena Based Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow Analysis in Autogeneous Fusion Welding Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bag, S.; de, A.

2010-09-01

The transport phenomena based heat transfer and fluid flow calculations in weld pool require a number of input parameters. Arc efficiency, effective thermal conductivity, and viscosity in weld pool are some of these parameters, values of which are rarely known and difficult to assign a priori based on the scientific principles alone. The present work reports a bi-directional three-dimensional (3-D) heat transfer and fluid flow model, which is integrated with a real number based genetic algorithm. The bi-directional feature of the integrated model allows the identification of the values of a required set of uncertain model input parameters and, next, the design of process parameters to achieve a target weld pool dimension. The computed values are validated with measured results in linear gas-tungsten-arc (GTA) weld samples. Furthermore, a novel methodology to estimate the overall reliability of the computed solutions is also presented.

Stochastic Individual-Based Modeling of Bacterial Growth and Division Using Flow Cytometry.

PubMed

García, Míriam R; Vázquez, José A; Teixeira, Isabel G; Alonso, Antonio A

2017-01-01

A realistic description of the variability in bacterial growth and division is critical to produce reliable predictions of safety risks along the food chain. Individual-based modeling of bacteria provides the theoretical framework to deal with this variability, but it requires information about the individual behavior of bacteria inside populations. In this work, we overcome this problem by estimating the individual behavior of bacteria from population statistics obtained with flow cytometry. For this objective, a stochastic individual-based modeling framework is defined based on standard assumptions during division and exponential growth. The unknown single-cell parameters required for running the individual-based modeling simulations, such as cell size growth rate, are estimated from the flow cytometry data. Instead of using directly the individual-based model, we make use of a modified Fokker-Plank equation. This only equation simulates the population statistics in function of the unknown single-cell parameters. We test the validity of the approach by modeling the growth and division of Pediococcus acidilactici within the exponential phase. Estimations reveal the statistics of cell growth and division using only data from flow cytometry at a given time. From the relationship between the mother and daughter volumes, we also predict that P. acidilactici divide into two successive parallel planes.

Detection of linear ego-acceleration from optic flow.

PubMed

Festl, Freya; Recktenwald, Fabian; Yuan, Chunrong; Mallot, Hanspeter A

2012-07-20

Human observers are able to estimate various ego-motion parameters from optic flow, including rotation, translational heading, time-to-collision (TTC), time-to-passage (TTP), etc. The perception of linear ego-acceleration or deceleration, i.e., changes of translational velocity, is less well understood. While time-to-passage experiments indicate that ego-acceleration is neglected, subjects are able to keep their (perceived) speed constant under changing conditions, indicating that some sense of ego-acceleration or velocity change must be present. In this paper, we analyze the relation of ego-acceleration estimates and geometrical parameters of the environment using simulated flights through cylindrical and conic (narrowing or widening) corridors. Theoretical analysis shows that a logarithmic ego-acceleration parameter, called the acceleration rate ρ, can be calculated from retinal acceleration measurements. This parameter is independent of the geometrical layout of the scene; if veridical ego-motion is known at some instant in time, acceleration rate allows updating of ego-motion without further depth-velocity calibration. Results indicate, however, that subjects systematically confuse ego-acceleration with corridor narrowing and ego-deceleration with corridor widening, while veridically judging ego-acceleration in straight corridors. We conclude that judgments of ego-acceleration are based on first-order retinal flow and do not make use of acceleration rate or retinal acceleration.

Computer simulation of storm runoff for three watersheds in Albuquerque, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutilla, R.L.; Veenhuis, J.E.

1994-01-01

Rainfall-runoff data from three watersheds were selected for calibration and verification of the U.S. Geological Survey's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model. The watersheds chosen are residentially developed. The conceptually based model uses an optimization process that adjusts selected parameters to achieve the best fit between measured and simulated runoff volumes and peak discharges. Three of these optimization parameters represent soil-moisture conditions, three represent infiltration, and one accounts for effective impervious area. Each watershed modeled was divided into overland-flow segments and channel segments. The overland-flow segments were further subdivided to reflect pervious and impervious areas. Each overland-flow and channel segment was assigned representative values of area, slope, percentage of imperviousness, and roughness coefficients. Rainfall-runoff data for each watershed were separated into two sets for use in calibration and verification. For model calibration, seven input parameters were optimized to attain a best fit of the data. For model verification, parameter values were set using values from model calibration. The standard error of estimate for calibration of runoff volumes ranged from 19 to 34 percent, and for peak discharge calibration ranged from 27 to 44 percent. The standard error of estimate for verification of runoff volumes ranged from 26 to 31 percent, and for peak discharge verification ranged from 31 to 43 percent.

Dynamical structure of magnetized dissipative accretion flow around black holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Biplob; Das, Santabrata

2016-09-01

We study the global structure of optically thin, advection dominated, magnetized accretion flow around black holes. We consider the magnetic field to be turbulent in nature and dominated by the toroidal component. With this, we obtain the complete set of accretion solutions for dissipative flows where bremsstrahlung process is regarded as the dominant cooling mechanism. We show that rotating magnetized accretion flow experiences virtual barrier around black hole due to centrifugal repulsion that can trigger the discontinuous transition of the flow variables in the form of shock waves. We examine the properties of the shock waves and find that the dynamics of the post-shock corona (PSC) is controlled by the flow parameters, namely viscosity, cooling rate and strength of the magnetic field, respectively. We separate the effective region of the parameter space for standing shock and observe that shock can form for wide range of flow parameters. We obtain the critical viscosity parameter that allows global accretion solutions including shocks. We estimate the energy dissipation at the PSC from where a part of the accreting matter can deflect as outflows and jets. We compare the maximum energy that could be extracted from the PSC and the observed radio luminosity values for several supermassive black hole sources and the observational implications of our present analysis are discussed.

Uncertainty quantification in LES of channel flow

DOE PAGES

Safta, Cosmin; Blaylock, Myra; Templeton, Jeremy; ...

2016-07-12

Here, in this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for estimating joint densities for large eddy simulation (LES) sub-grid scale model parameters based on canonical forced isotropic turbulence direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The framework accounts for noise in the independent variables, and we present alternative formulations for accounting for discrepancies between model and data. To generate probability densities for flow characteristics, posterior densities for sub-grid scale model parameters are propagated forward through LES of channel flow and compared with DNS data. Synthesis of the calibration and prediction results demonstrates that model parameters have an explicit filter width dependence andmore » are highly correlated. Discrepancies between DNS and calibrated LES results point to additional model form inadequacies that need to be accounted for.« less

Handling the unknown soil hydraulic parameters in data assimilation for unsaturated flow problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Natascha; Erdal, Daniel; Neuweiler, Insa

2017-04-01

Model predictions of flow in the unsaturated zone require the soil hydraulic parameters. However, these parameters cannot be determined easily in applications, in particular if observations are indirect and cover only a small range of possible states. Correlation of parameters or their correlation in the range of states that are observed is a problem, as different parameter combinations may reproduce approximately the same measured water content. In field campaigns this problem can be helped by adding more measurement devices. Often, observation networks are designed to feed models for long term prediction purposes (i.e. for weather forecasting). A popular way of making predictions with such kind of observations are data assimilation methods, like the ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 1994). These methods can be used for parameter estimation if the unknown parameters are included in the state vector and updated along with the model states. Given the difficulties related to estimation of the soil hydraulic parameters in general, it is questionable, though, whether these methods can really be used for parameter estimation under natural conditions. Therefore, we investigate the ability of the ensemble Kalman filter to estimate the soil hydraulic parameters. We use synthetic identical twin-experiments to guarantee full knowledge of the model and the true parameters. We use the van Genuchten model to describe the soil water retention and relative permeability functions. This model is unfortunately prone to the above mentioned pseudo-correlations of parameters. Therefore, we also test the simpler Russo Gardner model, which is less affected by that problem, in our experiments. The total number of unknown parameters is varied by considering different layers of soil. Besides, we study the influence of the parameter updates on the water content predictions. We test different iterative filter approaches and compare different observation strategies for parameter identification. Considering heterogeneous soils, we discuss the representativeness of different observation types to be used for the assimilation. G. Evensen. Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 99(C5):10143-10162, 1994

Investigation of metrics to assess vascular flow modifications for diverter device designs using hydrodynamics and angiographic studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, Ciprian N.; Bednarek, Daniel R.; Rudin, Stephen

2012-03-01

Intracranial aneurysm treatment with flow diverters (FD) is a new minimally invasive approach, recently approved for use in human patients. Attempts to correlate the flow reduction observed in angiograms with a parameter related to the FD structure have not been totally successful. To find the proper parameter, we investigated four porous-media flow models. The models describing the relation between the pressure drop and flow velocity that are investigated include the capillary theory linear model (CTLM), the drag force linear model (DFLM), the simple quadratic model (SQM) and the modified quadratic model (MQM). Proportionality parameters are referred to as permeability for the linear models and resistance for the quadratic ones. A two stage experiment was performed. First, we verified flow model validity by placing six different stainless-steel meshes, resembling FD structures, in known flow conditions. The best flow model was used for the second stage, where six different FD's were inserted in aneurysm phantoms and flow modification was estimated using angiographically derived time density curves (TDC). Finally, TDC peak variation was compared with the FD parameter. Model validity experiments indicated errors of: 70% for the linear models, 26% for the SQM and 7% for the MQM. The resistance calculated according to the MQM model correlated well with the contrast flow reduction. Results indicate that resistance calculated according to MQM is appropriate to characterize the FD and could explain the flow modification observed in angiograms.

A criterion for maximum resin flow in composite materials curing process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Woo I.; Um, Moon-Kwang

1993-06-01

On the basis of Springer's resin flow model, a criterion for maximum resin flow in autoclave curing is proposed. Validity of the criterion was proved for two resin systems (Fiberite 976 and Hercules 3501-6 epoxy resin). The parameter required for the criterion can be easily estimated from the measured resin viscosity data. The proposed criterion can be used in establishing the proper cure cycle to ensure maximum resin flow and, thus, the maximum compaction.

Simultaneous estimation of local-scale and flow path-scale dual-domain mass transfer parameters using geoelectrical monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Ong, John B.; Curtis, Gary P.; Lane, John W.

2013-01-01

Anomalous solute transport, modeled as rate-limited mass transfer, has an observable geoelectrical signature that can be exploited to infer the controlling parameters. Previous experiments indicate the combination of time-lapse geoelectrical and fluid conductivity measurements collected during ionic tracer experiments provides valuable insight into the exchange of solute between mobile and immobile porosity. Here, we use geoelectrical measurements to monitor tracer experiments at a former uranium mill tailings site in Naturita, Colorado. We use nonlinear regression to calibrate dual-domain mass transfer solute-transport models to field data. This method differs from previous approaches by calibrating the model simultaneously to observed fluid conductivity and geoelectrical tracer signals using two parameter scales: effective parameters for the flow path upgradient of the monitoring point and the parameters local to the monitoring point. We use regression statistics to rigorously evaluate the information content and sensitivity of fluid conductivity and geophysical data, demonstrating multiple scales of mass transfer parameters can simultaneously be estimated. Our results show, for the first time, field-scale spatial variability of mass transfer parameters (i.e., exchange-rate coefficient, porosity) between local and upgradient effective parameters; hence our approach provides insight into spatial variability and scaling behavior. Additional synthetic modeling is used to evaluate the scope of applicability of our approach, indicating greater range than earlier work using temporal moments and a Lagrangian-based Damköhler number. The introduced Eulerian-based Damköhler is useful for estimating tracer injection duration needed to evaluate mass transfer exchange rates that range over several orders of magnitude.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

2009-12-01

Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predicting flow from ungauged basins. In particular, these approaches allow for predicting flows under uncertain and potentially variable future conditions due to rapid land cover changes, variable climate conditions, and other factors. Despite the broad range of literature on estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters, however, the absence of a robust set of modeling tools for identifying and quantifying uncertainties in (and correlation between) rainfall-runoff model parameters represents a significant gap in current hydrological modeling research. Here, we build upon a series of recent publications promoting novel Bayesian and probabilistic modeling strategies for quantifying rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation uncertainty. Our approach applies alternative measures of rainfall-runoff model parameter joint likelihood (including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, among others) to simulate samples from the joint parameter posterior probability density function. We then use these correlated samples as response variables in a Bayesian hierarchical model with land use coverage data as predictor variables in order to develop a robust land use-based tool for forecasting flow in ungauged basins while accounting for, and explicitly acknowledging, parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this modeling strategy to low-relief coastal watersheds of Eastern North Carolina, an area representative of coastal resource waters throughout the world because of its sensitive embayments and because of the abundant (but currently threatened) natural resources it hosts. Consequently, this area is the subject of several ongoing studies and large-scale planning initiatives, including those conducted through the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, as well as those addressing coastal population dynamics and sea level rise. Our approach has several advantages, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty through a nonparametric probability distribution which avoids common pitfalls of fitting parameters and model error structure to a predetermined parametric distribution function. In addition, by explicitly acknowledging correlation between model parameters (and reflecting those correlations in our predictive model) our model yields relatively efficient prediction intervals (unlike those in the current literature which are often unnecessarily large, and may lead to overly-conservative management actions). Finally, our model helps improve understanding of the rainfall-runoff process by identifying model parameters (and associated catchment attributes) which are most sensitive to current and future land use change patterns. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

Steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport, Eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory and vicinity, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Daniel J.; Rousseau, Joseph P.; Rattray, Gordon W.; Fisher, Jason C.

2010-01-01

Three-dimensional steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy. The steady-state and transient flow models cover an area of 1,940 square miles that includes most of the 890 square miles of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A 50-year history of waste disposal at the INL has resulted in measurable concentrations of waste contaminants in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. Model results can be used in numerical simulations to evaluate the movement of contaminants in the aquifer. Saturated flow in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was simulated using the MODFLOW-2000 groundwater flow model. Steady-state flow was simulated to represent conditions in 1980 with average streamflow infiltration from 1966-80 for the Big Lost River, the major variable inflow to the system. The transient flow model simulates groundwater flow between 1980 and 1995, a period that included a 5-year wet cycle (1982-86) followed by an 8-year dry cycle (1987-94). Specified flows into or out of the active model grid define the conditions on all boundaries except the southwest (outflow) boundary, which is simulated with head-dependent flow. In the transient flow model, streamflow infiltration was the major stress, and was variable in time and location. The models were calibrated by adjusting aquifer hydraulic properties to match simulated and observed heads or head differences using the parameter-estimation program incorporated in MODFLOW-2000. Various summary, regression, and inferential statistics, in addition to comparisons of model properties and simulated head to measured properties and head, were used to evaluate the model calibration. Model parameters estimated for the steady-state calibration included hydraulic conductivity for seven of nine hydrogeologic zones and a global value of vertical anisotropy. Parameters estimated for the transient calibration included specific yield for five of the seven hydrogeologic zones. The zones represent five rock units and parts of four rock units with abundant interbedded sediment. All estimates of hydraulic conductivity were nearly within 2 orders of magnitude of the maximum expected value in a range that exceeds 6 orders of magnitude. The estimate of vertical anisotropy was larger than the maximum expected value. All estimates of specific yield and their confidence intervals were within the ranges of values expected for aquifers, the range of values for porosity of basalt, and other estimates of specific yield for basalt. The steady-state model reasonably simulated the observed water-table altitude, orientation, and gradients. Simulation of transient flow conditions accurately reproduced observed changes in the flow system resulting from episodic infiltration from the Big Lost River and facilitated understanding and visualization of the relative importance of historical differences in infiltration in time and space. As described in a conceptual model, the numerical model simulations demonstrate flow that is (1) dominantly horizontal through interflow zones in basalt and vertical anisotropy resulting from contrasts in hydraulic conductivity of various types of basalt and the interbedded sediments, (2) temporally variable due to streamflow infiltration from the Big Lost River, and (3) moving downward downgradient of the INL. The numerical models were reparameterized, recalibrated, and analyzed to evaluate alternative conceptualizations or implementations of the conceptual model. The analysis of the reparameterized models revealed that little improvement in the model could come from alternative descriptions of sediment content, simulated aquifer thickness, streamflow infiltration, and vertical head distribution on the downgradient boundary. Of the alternative estimates of flow to or from the aquifer, only a 20 percent decrease in

Genetic parameters for first lactation test-day milk flow in Holstein cows.

PubMed

Laureano, M M M; Bignardi, A B; El Faro, L; Cardoso, V L; Albuquerque, L G

2012-01-01

Genetic parameters for test-day milk flow (TDMF) of 2175 first lactations of Holstein cows were estimated using multiple-trait and repeatability models. The models included the direct additive genetic effect as a random effect and contemporary group (defined as the year and month of test) and age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic effect) as fixed effects. For the repeatability model, in addition to the effects cited, the permanent environmental effect of the animal was also included as a random effect. Variance components were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood method in single- and multiple-trait and repeatability analyses. The heritability estimates for TDMF ranged from 0.23 (TDMF 6) to 0.32 (TDMF 2 and TDMF 4) in single-trait analysis and from 0.28 (TDMF 7 and TDMF 10) to 0.37 (TDMF 4) in multiple-trait analysis. In general, higher heritabilities were observed at the beginning of lactation until the fourth month. Heritability estimated with the repeatability model was 0.27 and the coefficient of repeatability for first lactation TDMF was 0.66. The genetic correlations were positive and ranged from 0.72 (TDMF 1 and 10) to 0.97 (TDMF 4 and 5). The results indicate that milk flow should respond satisfactorily to selection, promoting rapid genetic gains because the estimated heritabilities were moderate to high. Higher genetic gains might be obtained if selection was performed in the TDMF 4. Both the repeatability model and the multiple-trait model are adequate for the genetic evaluation of animals in terms of milk flow, but the latter provides more accurate estimates of breeding values.

Estimation of turbulent kinetic energy using 4D phase-contrast MRI: Effect of scan parameters and target vessel size.

PubMed

Ha, Hojin; Hwang, Dongha; Kim, Guk Bae; Kweon, Jihoon; Lee, Sang Joon; Baek, Jehyun; Kim, Young-Hak; Kim, Namkug; Yang, Dong Hyun

2016-07-01

Quantifying turbulence velocity fluctuation is important because it indicates the fluid energy dissipation of the blood flow, which is closely related to the pressure drop along the blood vessel. This study aims to evaluate the effects of scan parameters and the target vessel size of 4D phase-contrast (PC)-MRI on quantification of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Comprehensive 4D PC-MRI measurements with various velocity-encoding (VENC), echo time (TE), and voxel size values were carried out to estimate TKE distribution in stenotic flow. The total TKE (TKEsum), maximum TKE (TKEmax), and background noise level (TKEnoise) were compared for each scan parameter. The feasibility of TKE estimation in small vessels was also investigated. Results show that the optimum VENC for stenotic flow with a peak velocity of 125cm/s was 70cm/s. Higher VENC values overestimated the TKEsum by up to six-fold due to increased TKEnoise, whereas lower VENC values (30cm/s) underestimated it by 57.1%. TE and voxel size did not significantly influence the TKEsum and TKEnoise, although the TKEmax significantly increased as the voxel size increased. TKE quantification in small-sized vessels (3-5-mm diameter) was feasible unless high-velocity turbulence caused severe phase dispersion in the reference image. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of sample dimension-dependent pedotransfer functions in estimation of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Saturated hydraulic conductivity Ksat is a fundamental characteristic in modeling flow and contaminant transport in soils and sediments. Therefore, many models have been developed to estimate Ksat from easily measureable parameters, such as textural properties, bulk density, etc. However, Ksat is no...

Challenges of Developing Design Discharge Estimates with Uncertain Data and Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U. S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on design discharge estimates obtained for gauged basins through flood flow frequency analysis. Bulletin 17B (B17B) guidelines are widely used in the USA for developing these design estimates, which are required for many water resources engineering design applications. A set of outlier and historical data, and distribution parameter selection options is included in these guidelines. These options are provided in the guidelines as a means of accounting for uncertain data and information, primarily in the flow record. The individual as well as the cumulative effects of each of these preferences on design discharge estimates are evaluated in this study by using data from several gauges that are part of the United States Geological Survey's Hydro-Climatic Data Network. The results of this study show that despite the availability of rigorous and detailed guidelines for flood frequency analysis, the design discharge estimates can still vary substantially, from user to user, based on data and model parameter selection options chosen by each user. Thus, the findings of this study have strong implications for water resources engineers and other professionals who use B17B-based design discharge estimates in their work.

Correlation between Salivary Glucose and Blood Glucose and the Implications of Salivary Factors on the Oral Health Status in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

PubMed Central

Puttaswamy, Kavitha A.; Puttabudhi, Jaishankar H.; Raju, Shashidara

2017-01-01

Aims and Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate and assess any correlation between random capillary blood glucose (RCBG) and unstimulated whole salivary glucose (UWSG), as well as to estimate various salivary parameters, such as flow rate, pH, buffering capacity, and the influence of these factors on the oral health status in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Materials and Methods: Sixty individuals suffering from type 2 DM and 40 healthy individuals in the age group of 30–60 years were included in the study. RCBG was estimated using glucometer and UWSG was estimated using photocolorimeter. Salivary parameters such as flow rate, pH, and buffering capacity were assessed using GC® Saliva kit. Oral health status was recorded using the Russell's periodontal index (RPI) and the Decayed Missing Filled Teeth (DMFT) index. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 16 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Type 2 diabetics had higher mean values for RCBG levels and UWSG. Type 2 diabetics had low mean salivary flow rate, pH, and buffering capacity. Type 2 diabetics had higher mean values for RPI. Conclusion: Among the salivary factors studied, salivary glucose significantly influenced the periodontal status in Type 2 diabetics. PMID:28316946

Correlation between Salivary Glucose and Blood Glucose and the Implications of Salivary Factors on the Oral Health Status in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients.

PubMed

Puttaswamy, Kavitha A; Puttabudhi, Jaishankar H; Raju, Shashidara

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate and assess any correlation between random capillary blood glucose (RCBG) and unstimulated whole salivary glucose (UWSG), as well as to estimate various salivary parameters, such as flow rate, pH, buffering capacity, and the influence of these factors on the oral health status in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Sixty individuals suffering from type 2 DM and 40 healthy individuals in the age group of 30-60 years were included in the study. RCBG was estimated using glucometer and UWSG was estimated using photocolorimeter. Salivary parameters such as flow rate, pH, and buffering capacity were assessed using GC ® Saliva kit. Oral health status was recorded using the Russell's periodontal index (RPI) and the Decayed Missing Filled Teeth (DMFT) index. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 16 was used for statistical analysis. Type 2 diabetics had higher mean values for RCBG levels and UWSG. Type 2 diabetics had low mean salivary flow rate, pH, and buffering capacity. Type 2 diabetics had higher mean values for RPI. Among the salivary factors studied, salivary glucose significantly influenced the periodontal status in Type 2 diabetics.

Nonlinear-regression groundwater flow modeling of a deep regional aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Naff, Richard L.

1986-01-01

A nonlinear regression groundwater flow model, based on a Galerkin finite-element discretization, was used to analyze steady state two-dimensional groundwater flow in the areally extensive Madison aquifer in a 75,000 mi2 area of the Northern Great Plains. Regression parameters estimated include intrinsic permeabilities of the main aquifer and separate lineament zones, discharges from eight major springs surrounding the Black Hills, and specified heads on the model boundaries. Aquifer thickness and temperature variations were included as specified functions. The regression model was applied using sequential F testing so that the fewest number and simplest zonation of intrinsic permeabilities, combined with the simplest overall model, were evaluated initially; additional complexities (such as subdivisions of zones and variations in temperature and thickness) were added in stages to evaluate the subsequent degree of improvement in the model results. It was found that only the eight major springs, a single main aquifer intrinsic permeability, two separate lineament intrinsic permeabilities of much smaller values, and temperature variations are warranted by the observed data (hydraulic heads and prior information on some parameters) for inclusion in a model that attempts to explain significant controls on groundwater flow. Addition of thickness variations did not significantly improve model results; however, thickness variations were included in the final model because they are fairly well defined. Effects on the observed head distribution from other features, such as vertical leakage and regional variations in intrinsic permeability, apparently were overshadowed by measurement errors in the observed heads. Estimates of the parameters correspond well to estimates obtained from other independent sources.

Nonlinear-Regression Groundwater Flow Modeling of a Deep Regional Aquifer System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, Richard L.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Naff, Richard L.

1986-12-01

A nonlinear regression groundwater flow model, based on a Galerkin finite-element discretization, was used to analyze steady state two-dimensional groundwater flow in the areally extensive Madison aquifer in a 75,000 mi2 area of the Northern Great Plains. Regression parameters estimated include intrinsic permeabilities of the main aquifer and separate lineament zones, discharges from eight major springs surrounding the Black Hills, and specified heads on the model boundaries. Aquifer thickness and temperature variations were included as specified functions. The regression model was applied using sequential F testing so that the fewest number and simplest zonation of intrinsic permeabilities, combined with the simplest overall model, were evaluated initially; additional complexities (such as subdivisions of zones and variations in temperature and thickness) were added in stages to evaluate the subsequent degree of improvement in the model results. It was found that only the eight major springs, a single main aquifer intrinsic permeability, two separate lineament intrinsic permeabilities of much smaller values, and temperature variations are warranted by the observed data (hydraulic heads and prior information on some parameters) for inclusion in a model that attempts to explain significant controls on groundwater flow. Addition of thickness variations did not significantly improve model results; however, thickness variations were included in the final model because they are fairly well defined. Effects on the observed head distribution from other features, such as vertical leakage and regional variations in intrinsic permeability, apparently were overshadowed by measurement errors in the observed heads. Estimates of the parameters correspond well to estimates obtained from other independent sources.

A shallow water table fluctuation model in response to precipitation with consideration of unsaturated gravitational flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, E.; Jeong, J.

2017-12-01

A precise estimation of groundwater fluctuation is studied by considering delayed recharge flux (DRF) and unsaturated zone drainage (UZD). Both DRF and UZD are due to gravitational flow impeded in the unsaturated zone, which may nonnegligibly affect groundwater level changes. In the validation, a previous model without the consideration of unsaturated flow is benchmarked where the actual groundwater level and precipitation data are divided into three periods based on the climatic condition. The estimation capability of the new model is superior to the benchmarked model as indicated by the significantly improved representation of groundwater level with physically interpretable model parameters.

Improved optical flow motion estimation for digital image stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Lijun; Xu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xuyao

2015-11-01

Optical flow is the instantaneous motion vector at each pixel in the image frame at a time instant. The gradient-based approach for optical flow computation can't work well when the video motion is too large. To alleviate such problem, we incorporate this algorithm into a pyramid multi-resolution coarse-to-fine search strategy. Using pyramid strategy to obtain multi-resolution images; Using iterative relationship from the highest level to the lowest level to obtain inter-frames' affine parameters; Subsequence frames compensate back to the first frame to obtain stabilized sequence. The experiment results demonstrate that the promoted method has good performance in global motion estimation.

Eruption mass estimation using infrasound waveform inversion and ash and gas measurements: Evaluation at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan [Comparison of eruption masses at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan calculated by infrasound waveform inversion and ground-based sampling

DOE PAGES

Fee, David; Izbekov, Pavel; Kim, Keehoon; ...

2017-10-09

Eruption mass and mass flow rate are critical parameters for determining the aerial extent and hazard of volcanic emissions. Infrasound waveform inversion is a promising technique to quantify volcanic emissions. Although topography may substantially alter the infrasound waveform as it propagates, advances in wave propagation modeling and station coverage permit robust inversion of infrasound data from volcanic explosions. The inversion can estimate eruption mass flow rate and total eruption mass if the flow density is known. However, infrasound-based eruption flow rates and mass estimates have yet to be validated against independent measurements, and numerical modeling has only recently been appliedmore » to the inversion technique. Furthermore we present a robust full-waveform acoustic inversion method, and use it to calculate eruption flow rates and masses from 49 explosions from Sakurajima Volcano, Japan.« less

Modeling intracavitary heating of the uterus by means of a balloon catheter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsrud, Johan; Friberg, Britt; Rioseco, Juan; Ahlgren, Mats; Persson, Bertil R. R.

1999-01-01

Balloon thermal endometrial destruction (TED) is a recently developed method to treat heavy menstrual bleeding (menorrhagia). Numerical simulations of this treatment by use of the finite element method were performed. The mechanical deformation and the resulting stress distribution when a balloon catheter is expanded within the uterine cavity was estimated from structural analysis. Thermal analysis was then performed to estimate the depth of tissue coagulation (temperature > 55 degree(s)C) in the uterus during TED. The estimated depth of coagulation, after 30 min heating with an intracavity temperature of 75 degree(s)C, was approximately 9 mm when blood flow was disregarded. With uniform normal blood flow, the depth of coagulation decreased to 3 - 4 mm. Simulations with varying intracavity temperatures and blood flow rates showed that both parameters should be of major importance to the depth of coagulation. The influence of blood flow was less when the pressure due to the balloon was also considered (5 - 6 mm coagulation depth with normal blood flow).

Eruption mass estimation using infrasound waveform inversion and ash and gas measurements: Evaluation at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan [Comparison of eruption masses at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan calculated by infrasound waveform inversion and ground-based sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fee, David; Izbekov, Pavel; Kim, Keehoon

Eruption mass and mass flow rate are critical parameters for determining the aerial extent and hazard of volcanic emissions. Infrasound waveform inversion is a promising technique to quantify volcanic emissions. Although topography may substantially alter the infrasound waveform as it propagates, advances in wave propagation modeling and station coverage permit robust inversion of infrasound data from volcanic explosions. The inversion can estimate eruption mass flow rate and total eruption mass if the flow density is known. However, infrasound-based eruption flow rates and mass estimates have yet to be validated against independent measurements, and numerical modeling has only recently been appliedmore » to the inversion technique. Furthermore we present a robust full-waveform acoustic inversion method, and use it to calculate eruption flow rates and masses from 49 explosions from Sakurajima Volcano, Japan.« less

Experimental Parameters for Wax Modeling of the Deccan Traps Flood Basalt Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rader, E. L.; Vanderkluysen, L.; Clarke, A. B.

2015-12-01

The Deccan Traps consist of ~1,000,000 km3 of predominantly tholeiitic basaltic lava flows, which cover the western Indian subcontinent. Their eruption occurred over a ~1-3 million year period overlapping with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary and, hence, has been implicated in one of the most significant extinction events in the history of the planet. The extent of environmental impacts caused by flood basalt eruptions is thought to be related, in part, to the amount, species, and timescales of volcanic gases released. Therefore, constraining the effusion rate of Deccan Traps lava flows is fundamental to understanding the K-Pg extinction event. Previous field and experimental work with polyethylene glycol (PEG) wax has shown that effusion rate is a primary factor controlling flow morphology. While sinuous flows and lava domes have been successfully recreated with PEG wax, the two most common morphologies seen in the Deccan Traps (compound and inflated sheet lobes) have not. We used heated PEG-400 wax injected into a tank of chilled water with a peristaltic pump to form experimental eruptions with high flow rate and low viscosity to replicate inflated flow lobes, and low flow rate with higher viscosity for compound flows. Unlike previous experiments, flow rate was varied during a single experiment to examine the effect on flow morphology. The Psi value is used as a scaling parameter to estimate effusion rates for compound and 'simple' inflated flows in the Deccan Traps. When combined with field work for volume estimates of the two flow types, these experiments will provide the best constraint on eruption rates to date.

A physically based analytical model of flood frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-09-01

Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is a key issue in hydrology, with implications in many fields ranging from river science and geomorphology to the insurance industry. In this paper, a novel physically based approach is proposed to estimate the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima. The method links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge, providing an analytical expression of the seasonal flood frequency curve. The parameters involved in the formulation embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which is linked to the antecedent wetness condition in the watershed, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The performance of the method is discussed through a set of applications in four rivers featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model provides reliable estimates of seasonal maximum flows in different climatic settings and is able to capture diverse shapes of flood frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes. The proposed method exploits experimental information on the full range of discharges experienced by rivers. As a consequence, model performances do not deteriorate when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. The approach provides a framework for the prediction of floods based on short data series of rainfall and daily streamflows that may be especially valuable in data scarce regions of the world.

Probability modeling of high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Li, Chengcheng

2014-05-01

Probability modeling of hydrological extremes is one of the major research areas in hydrological science. Most basins in humid and semi-humid south and east of China are concerned for probability modeling analysis of high flow extremes. While, for the inland river basin which occupies about 35% of the country area, there is a limited presence of such studies partly due to the limited data availability and a relatively low mean annual flow. The objective of this study is to carry out probability modeling of high flow extremes in the upper reach of Heihe River basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, by using the peak over threshold (POT) method and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), in which the selection of threshold and inherent assumptions for POT series are elaborated in details. For comparison, other widely used probability distributions including generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal, Log-logistic and Gamma are employed as well. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimations. Daily flow data at Yingluoxia station from 1978 to 2008 are used. Results show that, synthesizing the approaches of mean excess plot, stability features of model parameters, return level plot and the inherent independence assumption of POT series, an optimum threshold of 340m3/s is finally determined for high flow extremes in Yingluoxia watershed. The resulting POT series is proved to be stationary and independent based on Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test and autocorrelation test. In terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test and several graphical diagnostics such as quantile and cumulative density function plots, GPD provides the best fit to high flow extremes in the study area. The estimated high flows for long return periods demonstrate that, as the return period increasing, the return level estimates are probably more uncertain. The frequency of high flow extremes exhibits a very slight but not significant decreasing trend from 1978 to 2008, while the intensity of such flow extremes is comparatively increasing especially for the higher return levels.

Renal parameter estimates in unrestrained dogs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rader, R. D.; Stevens, C. M.

1974-01-01

A mathematical formulation has been developed to describe the hemodynamic parameters of a conceptualized kidney model. The model was developed by considering regional pressure drops and regional storage capacities within the renal vasculature. Estimation of renal artery compliance, pre- and postglomerular resistance, and glomerular filtration pressure is feasible by considering mean levels and time derivatives of abdominal aortic pressure and renal artery flow. Changes in the smooth muscle tone of the renal vessels induced by exogenous angiotensin amide, acetylcholine, and by the anaesthetic agent halothane were estimated by use of the model. By employing totally implanted telemetry, the technique was applied on unrestrained dogs to measure renal resistive and compliant parameters while the dogs were being subjected to obedience training, to avoidance reaction, and to unrestrained caging.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; ...

2017-04-05

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLEmore » confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.« less

Journal: Efficient Hydrologic Tracer-Test Design for Tracer ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for the determination of basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test design can be difficult because of a lack of prior knowledge of the basic hydraulic and geometric parameters desired and the appropriate tracer mass to release. A new efficient hydrologic tracer-test design (EHTD) methodology has been developed to facilitate the design of tracer tests by root determination of the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation (ADE) using a preset average tracer concentration which provides a theoretical basis for an estimate of necessary tracer mass. The method uses basic measured field parameters (e.g., discharge, distance, cross-sectional area) that are combined in functional relatipnships that descrive solute-transport processes related to flow velocity and time of travel. These initial estimates for time of travel and velocity are then applied to a hypothetical continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) as an analog for the hydrological-flow system to develop initial estimates for tracer concentration, tracer mass, and axial dispersion. Application of the predicted tracer mass with the hydraulic and geometric parameters in the ADE allows for an approximation of initial sample-collection time and subsequent sample-collection frequency where a maximum of 65 samples were determined to be necessary for descri

Quantification of tumor perfusion using dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound: impact of mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doury, Maxime; Dizeux, Alexandre; de Cesare, Alain; Lucidarme, Olivier; Pellot-Barakat, Claire; Bridal, S. Lori; Frouin, Frédérique

2017-02-01

Dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasound has been proposed to monitor tumor therapy, as a complement to volume measurements. To assess the variability of perfusion parameters in ideal conditions, four consecutive test-retest studies were acquired in a mouse tumor model, using controlled injections. The impact of mathematical modeling on parameter variability was then investigated. Coefficients of variation (CV) of tissue blood volume (BV) and tissue blood flow (BF) based-parameters were estimated inside 32 sub-regions of the tumors, comparing the log-normal (LN) model with a one-compartment model fed by an arterial input function (AIF) and improved by the introduction of a time delay parameter. Relative perfusion parameters were also estimated by normalization of the LN parameters and normalization of the one-compartment parameters estimated with the AIF, using a reference tissue (RT) region. A direct estimation (rRTd) of relative parameters, based on the one-compartment model without using the AIF, was also obtained by using the kinetics inside the RT region. Results of test-retest studies show that absolute regional parameters have high CV, whatever the approach, with median values of about 30% for BV, and 40% for BF. The positive impact of normalization was established, showing a coherent estimation of relative parameters, with reduced CV (about 20% for BV and 30% for BF using the rRTd approach). These values were significantly lower (p  <  0.05) than the CV of absolute parameters. The rRTd approach provided the smallest CV and should be preferred for estimating relative perfusion parameters.

Inverse modeling of geochemical and mechanical compaction in sedimentary basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, Ivo; Porta, Giovanni Michele; Guadagnini, Alberto

2015-04-01

We study key phenomena driving the feedback between sediment compaction processes and fluid flow in stratified sedimentary basins formed through lithification of sand and clay sediments after deposition. Processes we consider are mechanic compaction of the host rock and the geochemical compaction due to quartz cementation in sandstones. Key objectives of our study include (i) the quantification of the influence of the uncertainty of the model input parameters on the model output and (ii) the application of an inverse modeling technique to field scale data. Proper accounting of the feedback between sediment compaction processes and fluid flow in the subsurface is key to quantify a wide set of environmentally and industrially relevant phenomena. These include, e.g., compaction-driven brine and/or saltwater flow at deep locations and its influence on (a) tracer concentrations observed in shallow sediments, (b) build up of fluid overpressure, (c) hydrocarbon generation and migration, (d) subsidence due to groundwater and/or hydrocarbons withdrawal, and (e) formation of ore deposits. Main processes driving the diagenesis of sediments after deposition are mechanical compaction due to overburden and precipitation/dissolution associated with reactive transport. The natural evolution of sedimentary basins is characterized by geological time scales, thus preventing direct and exhaustive measurement of the system dynamical changes. The outputs of compaction models are plagued by uncertainty because of the incomplete knowledge of the models and parameters governing diagenesis. Development of robust methodologies for inverse modeling and parameter estimation under uncertainty is therefore crucial to the quantification of natural compaction phenomena. We employ a numerical methodology based on three building blocks: (i) space-time discretization of the compaction process; (ii) representation of target output variables through a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE); and (iii) model inversion (parameter estimation) within a maximum likelihood framework. In this context, the PCE-based surrogate model enables one to (i) minimize the computational cost associated with the (forward and inverse) modeling procedures leading to uncertainty quantification and parameter estimation, and (ii) compute the full set of Sobol indices quantifying the contribution of each uncertain parameter to the variability of target state variables. Results are illustrated through the simulation of one-dimensional test cases. The analyses focuses on the calibration of model parameters through literature field cases. The quality of parameter estimates is then analyzed as a function of number, type and location of data.

Use of instantaneous streamflow measurements to improve regression estimates of index flow for the summer month of lowest streamflow in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.

2011-01-01

In Michigan, index flow Q50 is a streamflow characteristic defined as the minimum of median flows for July, August, and September. The state of Michigan uses index flow estimates to help regulate large (greater than 100,000 gallons per day) water withdrawals to prevent adverse effects on characteristic fish populations. At sites where long-term streamgages are located, index flows are computed directly from continuous streamflow records as GageQ50. In an earlier study, a multiple-regression equation was developed to estimate index flows IndxQ50 at ungaged sites. The index equation explains about 94 percent of the variability of index flows at 147 (index) streamgages by use of six explanatory variables describing soil type, aquifer transmissivity, land cover, and precipitation characteristics. This report extends the results of the previous study, by use of Monte Carlo simulations, to evaluate alternative flow estimators, DiscQ50, IntgQ50, SiteQ50, and AugmQ50. The Monte Carlo simulations treated each of the available index streamgages, in turn, as a miscellaneous site where streamflow conditions are described by one or more instantaneous measurements of flow. In the simulations, instantaneous flows were approximated by daily mean flows at the corresponding site. All estimators use information that can be obtained from instantaneous flow measurements and contemporaneous daily mean flow data from nearby long-term streamgages. The efficacy of these estimators was evaluated over a set of measurement intensities in which the number of simulated instantaneous flow measurements ranged from 1 to 100 at a site. The discrete measurement estimator DiscQ50 is based on a simple linear regression developed between information on daily mean flows at five or more streamgages near the miscellaneous site and their corresponding GageQ50 index flows. The regression relation then was used to compute a DiscQ50 estimate at the miscellaneous site by use of the simulated instantaneous flow measurement. This process was repeated to develop a set of DiscQ50 estimates for all simulated instantaneous measurements, a weighted DiscQ50 estimate was formed from this set. Results indicated that the expected value of this weighted estimate was more precise than the IndxQ50 estimate for all measurement intensities evaluated. The integrated index-flow estimator, IntgQ50, was formed by computing a weighted average of the index estimate IndxQ50 and the DiscQ50 estimate. Results indicated that the IntgQ50 estimator was more precise than the DiscQ50 estimator at low measurement intensities of one to two measurements. At greater measurement intensities, the precision of the IntgQ50 estimator converges to the DiscQ50 estimator. Neither the DiscQ50 nor the IntgQ50 estimators provided site-specific estimates. In particular, although expected values of DiscQ50 and IntgQ50 estimates converge with increasing measurement intensity, they do not necessarily converge to the site-specific value of Q50. The site estimator of flow, SiteQ50, was developed to facilitate this convergence at higher measurement intensities. This is accomplished by use of the median of simulated instantaneous flow values for each measurement intensity level. A weighted estimate of the median and information associated with the IntgQ50 estimate was used to form the SiteQ50 estimate. Initial simulations indicate that the SiteQ50 estimator generally has greater precision than the IntgQ50 estimator at measurement intensities greater than 3, however, additional analysis is needed to identify streamflow conditions under which instantaneous measurements will produce estimates that generally converge to the index flows. A preliminary augmented index regression equation was developed, which contains the index regression estimate and two additional variables associated with base-flow recession characteristics. When these recession variables were estimated as the medians of recession parameters compute

Unbiased multi-fidelity estimate of failure probability of a free plane jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Alexandre; Kramer, Boris; Willcox, Karen; Peherstorfer, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Estimating failure probability related to fluid flows is a challenge because it requires a large number of evaluations of expensive models. We address this challenge by leveraging multiple low fidelity models of the flow dynamics to create an optimal unbiased estimator. In particular, we investigate the effects of uncertain inlet conditions in the width of a free plane jet. We classify a condition as failure when the corresponding jet width is below a small threshold, such that failure is a rare event (failure probability is smaller than 0.001). We estimate failure probability by combining the frameworks of multi-fidelity importance sampling and optimal fusion of estimators. Multi-fidelity importance sampling uses a low fidelity model to explore the parameter space and create a biasing distribution. An unbiased estimate is then computed with a relatively small number of evaluations of the high fidelity model. In the presence of multiple low fidelity models, this framework offers multiple competing estimators. Optimal fusion combines all competing estimators into a single estimator with minimal variance. We show that this combined framework can significantly reduce the cost of estimating failure probabilities, and thus can have a large impact in fluid flow applications. This work was funded by DARPA.

Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, J.; Madsen, H.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J. C.

2015-08-01

The use of bias-aware Kalman filters for estimating and correcting observation bias in groundwater head observations is evaluated using both synthetic and real observations. In the synthetic test, groundwater head observations with a constant bias and unbiased stream discharge observations are assimilated in a catchment scale integrated hydrological model with the aim of updating stream discharge and groundwater head, as well as several model parameters relating to both stream flow and groundwater modeling. The Colored Noise Kalman filter (ColKF) and the Separate bias Kalman filter (SepKF) are tested and evaluated for correcting the observation biases. The study found that both methods were able to estimate most of the biases and that using any of the two bias estimation methods resulted in significant improvements over using a bias-unaware Kalman Filter. While the convergence of the ColKF was significantly faster than the convergence of the SepKF, a much larger ensemble size was required as the estimation of biases would otherwise fail. Real observations of groundwater head and stream discharge were also assimilated, resulting in improved stream flow modeling in terms of an increased Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient while no clear improvement in groundwater head modeling was observed. Both the ColKF and the SepKF tended to underestimate the biases, which resulted in drifting model behavior and sub-optimal parameter estimation, but both methods provided better state updating and parameter estimation than using a bias-unaware filter.

Relation between quantum probe and entanglement in n-qubit systems within Markovian and non-Markovian environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangani Jahromi, Hossein

2017-08-01

We address in detail the process of parameter estimation for an n-qubit system dissipating into a cavity in which the qubits are coupled to the single-mode cavity field via coupling constant g which should be estimated. In addition, the cavity field interacts with an external field considered as a set of continuum harmonic oscillators. We analyse the behaviour of the quantum Fisher information (QFI) for both weak and strong coupling regimes. In particular, we show that in strong coupling regime, the memory effects are dominant, leading to an oscillatory variation in the dynamics of the QFI and consequently information flowing from the environment to the quantum system. We show that when the number of the qubits or the coupling strength rises, the oscillations, signs of non-Markovian evolution of the QFI, increase. This indicates that in the strong-coupling regime, increasing the size of the system or the coupling strength remarkably enhances the reversed flow of information. Moreover, we find that it is possible to retard the QFI loss during the time evolution and therefore enhance the estimation of the parameter using a cavity with a larger decay rate factor. Furthermore, analysing the dynamics of the QFI and negativity of the probe state, we reveal a close relationship between the entanglement of probes and their capability for estimating the parameter. It is shown that in order to perform a better estimation of the parameter, we should avoid measuring when the entanglement between the probes is maximized.

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

2017-11-01

Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with the use of a statistical law with two parameters (here generalised extreme value Type I distribution) and clearly lower than those associated with the use of a three-parameter law (here generalised extreme value Type II distribution). For extreme flood quantiles, the uncertainties are mostly due to the rainfall generator because of the progressive saturation of the hydrological model.

Estimates of genetic parameters for oleoresin and growth traits in juvenile loblolly pine

Treesearch

James H. Roberds; Brian L. Strom; Fred P. Hain; David P. Gwaze; Steven E. McKeand; Larry H. Lott

2003-01-01

In southern pines of the United States, resistance to attack by southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, is believed to principally involve flow of oleoresin to beetle attack sites. Both environmental and genetic factors are known to affect the quantity of oleoresin flow in loblolly pine, Pinus taeda L., but little...

Using groundwater temperature data to constrain parameter estimation in a groundwater flow model of a wetland system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bravo, Hector R.; Jiang, Feng; Hunt, Randall J.

2002-01-01

Parameter estimation is a powerful way to calibrate models. While head data alone are often insufficient to estimate unique parameters due to model nonuniqueness, flow‐and‐heat‐transport modeling can constrain estimation and allow simultaneous estimation of boundary fluxes and hydraulic conductivity. In this work, synthetic and field models that did not converge when head data were used did converge when head and temperature were used. Furthermore, frequency domain analyses of head and temperature data allowed selection of appropriate modeling timescales. Inflows in the Wilton, Wisconsin, wetlands could be estimated over periods such as a growing season and over periods of a few days when heads were nearly steady and groundwater temperature varied during the day. While this methodology is computationally more demanding than traditional head calibration, the results gained are unobtainable using the traditional approach. These results suggest that temperature can efficiently supplement head data in systems where accurate flux calibration targets are unavailable.

Assessing Groundwater Resources Sustainability Using Groundwater Footprint Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charchousi, Despoina; Spanoudaki, Katerina; Papadopoulou, Maria P.

2017-04-01

Over-pumping, water table depletion and climate change impacts require effective groundwater management. The Groundwater Footprint (GWF), introduced by Gleeson et al. in 2012 expresses the area required to sustain groundwater use and groundwater dependent ecosystem services. GWF represents a water balance between aquifer inflows and outflows, focusing on environmental flow requirements. Developing the water balance, precipitation recharge and additional recharge from irrigation are considered as inflows, whereas outflows are considered the groundwater abstraction from the aquifer of interest and the quantity of groundwater that is needed to sustain ecosystem services. The parameters required for GWF calculation can be estimated through in-situ measurements, observations and models outputs. The actual groundwater abstraction is often difficult to be estimated with a high accuracy. Environmental flow requirements can be calculated through different approaches; the most accurate of which are considered the ones that focus on hydro-ecological data analysis. As the GWF is a tool recently introduced in groundwater assessment and management, only a few studies have been reported in the literature to use it as groundwater monitoring and management tool. The present study emphasizes on a case study in Southern Europe, where awareness should be raised about rivers' environmental flow. GWF concept will be applied for the first time to a pilot area in Greece, where the flow of the perennial river that crosses the area of interest is dependent on baseflow. Recharge and abstraction of the pilot area are estimated based on historical data and previous reports and a groundwater flow model is developed using Visual Modflow so as to diminish the uncertainty of the input parameters through model calibration. The groundwater quantity that should be allocated on surface water body in order to sustain satisfactory biological conditions is estimated under the assumption that surface water and groundwater contribute to the environmental flow in an equally proportion as in case of natural flow. In order to express baseflow as a percentage of natural mean flow, a precipitation-runoff model is developed. The environmental flow of the river of interest is estimated as a percentage of the river's average flow (Tennant method). Subsequently, the groundwater contribution is calculated as a percentage of the environmental flow equal to the percentage of the baseflow in the natural flow. GWF is finally compared with the actual size of the area of interest in order to assess the groundwater use and sustainability of this area.

Impact of fitting algorithms on errors of parameter estimates in dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debus, C.; Floca, R.; Nörenberg, D.; Abdollahi, A.; Ingrisch, M.

2017-12-01

Parameter estimation in dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE MRI) is usually performed by non-linear least square (NLLS) fitting of a pharmacokinetic model to a measured concentration-time curve. The two-compartment exchange model (2CXM) describes the compartments ‘plasma’ and ‘interstitial volume’ and their exchange in terms of plasma flow and capillary permeability. The model function can be defined by either a system of two coupled differential equations or a closed-form analytical solution. The aim of this study was to compare these two representations in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation speed, depending on parameter combination and temporal sampling. The impact on parameter estimation errors was investigated by fitting the 2CXM to simulated concentration-time curves. Parameter combinations representing five tissue types were used, together with two arterial input functions, a measured and a theoretical population based one, to generate 4D concentration images at three different temporal resolutions. Images were fitted by NLLS techniques, where the sum of squared residuals was calculated by either numeric integration with the Runge-Kutta method or convolution. Furthermore two example cases, a prostate carcinoma and a glioblastoma multiforme patient, were analyzed in order to investigate the validity of our findings in real patient data. The convolution approach yields improved results in precision and robustness of determined parameters. Precision and stability are limited in curves with low blood flow. The model parameter ve shows great instability and little reliability in all cases. Decreased temporal resolution results in significant errors for the differential equation approach in several curve types. The convolution excelled in computational speed by three orders of magnitude. Uncertainties in parameter estimation at low temporal resolution cannot be compensated by usage of the differential equations. Fitting with the convolution approach is superior in computational time, with better stability and accuracy at the same time.

Information fusion in regularized inversion of tomographic pumping tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohling, Geoffrey C.; ,

2008-01-01

In this chapter we investigate a simple approach to incorporating geophysical information into the analysis of tomographic pumping tests for characterization of the hydraulic conductivity (K) field in an aquifer. A number of authors have suggested a tomographic approach to the analysis of hydraulic tests in aquifers - essentially simultaneous analysis of multiple tests or stresses on the flow system - in order to improve the resolution of the estimated parameter fields. However, even with a large amount of hydraulic data in hand, the inverse problem is still plagued by non-uniqueness and ill-conditioning and the parameter space for the inversion needs to be constrained in some sensible fashion in order to obtain plausible estimates of aquifer properties. For seismic and radar tomography problems, the parameter space is often constrained through the application of regularization terms that impose penalties on deviations of the estimated parameters from a prior or background model, with the tradeoff between data fit and model norm explored through systematic analysis of results for different levels of weighting on the regularization terms. In this study we apply systematic regularized inversion to analysis of tomographic pumping tests in an alluvial aquifer, taking advantage of the steady-shape flow regime exhibited in these tests to expedite the inversion process. In addition, we explore the possibility of incorporating geophysical information into the inversion through a regularization term relating the estimated K distribution to ground penetrating radar velocity and attenuation distributions through a smoothing spline model. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Exploring Several Methods of Groundwater Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samani, Saeideh; Ye, Ming; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar

2017-04-01

Selecting reliable models for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport is essential to groundwater resources management and protection. This work is to explore several model selection methods for avoiding over-complex and/or over-parameterized groundwater models. We consider six groundwater flow models with different numbers (6, 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15) of model parameters. These models represent alternative geological interpretations, recharge estimates, and boundary conditions at a study site in Iran. The models were developed with Model Muse, and calibrated against observations of hydraulic head using UCODE. Model selection was conducted by using the following four approaches: (1) Rank the models using their root mean square error (RMSE) obtained after UCODE-based model calibration, (2) Calculate model probability using GLUE method, (3) Evaluate model probability using model selection criteria (AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC), and (4) Evaluate model weights using the Fuzzy Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. MCDM is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order performance, which is to identify the ideal solution by a gradual expansion from the local to the global scale of model parameters. The KIC and MCDM methods are superior to other methods, as they consider not only the fit between observed and simulated data and the number of parameter, but also uncertainty in model parameters. Considering these factors can prevent from occurring over-complexity and over-parameterization, when selecting the appropriate groundwater flow models. These methods selected, as the best model, one with average complexity (10 parameters) and the best parameter estimation (model 3).

Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, W. E.

2015-12-01

Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially better fit to the data than the one-parameter exponential function. For the single porosity system it was found that the use of three parameters was often optimal for accurately describing the base-flow age distribution, whereas for the dual porosity system the fourth parameter was often required to fit the more complicated response curves.

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model; user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter-estimation processes and three post-processing programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; Banta, E.R.; Harbaugh, A.W.; Anderman, E.R.

2000-01-01

This report documents the Observation, Sensitivity, and Parameter-Estimation Processes of the ground-water modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The Observation Process generates model-calculated values for comparison with measured, or observed, quantities. A variety of statistics is calculated to quantify this comparison, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, a number of files are produced that can be used to compare the values graphically. The Sensitivity Process calculates the sensitivity of hydraulic heads throughout the model with respect to specified parameters using the accurate sensitivity-equation method. These are called grid sensitivities. If the Observation Process is active, it uses the grid sensitivities to calculate sensitivities for the simulated values associated with the observations. These are called observation sensitivities. Observation sensitivities are used to calculate a number of statistics that can be used (1) to diagnose inadequate data, (2) to identify parameters that probably cannot be estimated by regression using the available observations, and (3) to evaluate the utility of proposed new data. The Parameter-Estimation Process uses a modified Gauss-Newton method to adjust values of user-selected input parameters in an iterative procedure to minimize the value of the weighted least-squares objective function. Statistics produced by the Parameter-Estimation Process can be used to evaluate estimated parameter values; statistics produced by the Observation Process and post-processing program RESAN-2000 can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the actual processes; statistics produced by post-processing program YCINT-2000 can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values. Parameters are defined in the Ground-Water Flow Process input files and can be used to calculate most model inputs, such as: for explicitly defined model layers, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, horizontal anisotropy, vertical hydraulic conductivity or vertical anisotropy, specific storage, and specific yield; and, for implicitly represented layers, vertical hydraulic conductivity. In addition, parameters can be defined to calculate the hydraulic conductance of the River, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates of the Recharge Package; maximum evapotranspiration of the Evapotranspiration Package; pumpage or the rate of flow at defined-flux boundaries of the Well Package; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. The spatial variation of model inputs produced using defined parameters is very flexible, including interpolated distributions that require the summation of contributions from different parameters. Observations can include measured hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, measured gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams), flows through constant-head boundaries, and advective transport through the system, which generally would be inferred from measured concentrations. MODFLOW-2000 is intended for use on any computer operating system. The program consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran 90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations and is fully compatible with the newer Fortran 95. The code is easily modified to be compatible with FORTRAN 77. Coordination for multiple processors is accommodated using Message Passing Interface (MPI) commands. The program is designed in a modular fashion that is intended to support inclusion of new capabilities.

PolyWaTT: A polynomial water travel time estimator based on Derivative Dynamic Time Warping and Perceptually Important Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claure, Yuri Navarro; Matsubara, Edson Takashi; Padovani, Carlos; Prati, Ronaldo Cristiano

2018-03-01

Traditional methods for estimating timing parameters in hydrological science require a rigorous study of the relations of flow resistance, slope, flow regime, watershed size, water velocity, and other local variables. These studies are mostly based on empirical observations, where the timing parameter is estimated using empirically derived formulas. The application of these studies to other locations is not always direct. The locations in which equations are used should have comparable characteristics to the locations from which such equations have been derived. To overcome this barrier, in this work, we developed a data-driven approach to estimate timing parameters such as travel time. Our proposal estimates timing parameters using historical data of the location without the need of adapting or using empirical formulas from other locations. The proposal only uses one variable measured at two different locations on the same river (for instance, two river-level measurements, one upstream and the other downstream on the same river). The recorded data from each location generates two time series. Our method aligns these two time series using derivative dynamic time warping (DDTW) and perceptually important points (PIP). Using data from timing parameters, a polynomial function generalizes the data by inducing a polynomial water travel time estimator, called PolyWaTT. To evaluate the potential of our proposal, we applied PolyWaTT to three different watersheds: a floodplain ecosystem located in the part of Brazil known as Pantanal, the world's largest tropical wetland area; and the Missouri River and the Pearl River, in United States of America. We compared our proposal with empirical formulas and a data-driven state-of-the-art method. The experimental results demonstrate that PolyWaTT showed a lower mean absolute error than all other methods tested in this study, and for longer distances the mean absolute error achieved by PolyWaTT is three times smaller than empirical formulas.

An Australian stocks and flows model for asbestos.

PubMed

Donovan, Sally; Pickin, Joe

2016-10-01

All available data on asbestos consumption in Australia were collated in order to determine the most common asbestos-containing materials remaining in the built environment. The proportion of asbestos contained within each material and the types of products these materials are most commonly found in was also determined. The lifetime of these asbestos containing products was estimated in order to develop a model that projects stocks and flows of asbestos products in Australia through to the year 2100. The model is based on a Weibull distribution and was built in an excel spreadsheet to make it user-friendly and accessible. The nature of the products under consideration means both their asbestos content and lifetime parameters are highly variable, and so for each of these a high and low estimate is presented along with the estimate used in the model. The user is able to vary the parameters in the model as better data become available. © The Author(s) 2016.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crawford, Aladsair J.; Viswanathan, Vilayanur V.; Stephenson, David E.

A robust performance-based cost model is developed for all-vanadium, iron-vanadium and iron chromium redox flow batteries. Systems aspects such as shunt current losses, pumping losses and thermal management are accounted for. The objective function, set to minimize system cost, allows determination of stack design and operating parameters such as current density, flow rate and depth of discharge (DOD). Component costs obtained from vendors are used to calculate system costs for various time frames. A 2 kW stack data was used to estimate unit energy costs and compared with model estimates for the same size electrodes. The tool has been sharedmore » with the redox flow battery community to both validate their stack data and guide future direction.« less

Can we calibrate simultaneously groundwater recharge and aquifer hydrodynamic parameters ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassane Maina, Fadji; Ackerer, Philippe; Bildstein, Olivier

2017-04-01

By groundwater model calibration, we consider here fitting the measured piezometric heads by estimating the hydrodynamic parameters (storage term and hydraulic conductivity) and the recharge. It is traditionally recommended to avoid simultaneous calibration of groundwater recharge and flow parameters because of correlation between recharge and the flow parameters. From a physical point of view, little recharge associated with low hydraulic conductivity can provide very similar piezometric changes than higher recharge and higher hydraulic conductivity. If this correlation is true under steady state conditions, we assume that this correlation is much weaker under transient conditions because recharge varies in time and the parameters do not. Moreover, the recharge is negligible during summer time for many climatic conditions due to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation and transpiration by vegetation cover. We analyze our hypothesis through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in conjunction with the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) methodology. We perform GSA by calculating the Sobol indices, which provide a variance-based 'measure' of the effects of uncertain parameters (storage and hydraulic conductivity) and recharge on the piezometric heads computed by the flow model. The choice of PCE has the following two benefits: (i) it provides the global sensitivity indices in a straightforward manner, and (ii) PCE can serve as a surrogate model for the calibration of parameters. The coefficients of the PCE are computed by probabilistic collocation. We perform the GSA on simplified real conditions coming from an already built groundwater model dedicated to a subdomain of the Upper-Rhine aquifer (geometry, boundary conditions, climatic data). GSA shows that the simultaneous calibration of recharge and flow parameters is possible if the calibration is performed over at least one year. It provides also the valuable information of the sensitivity versus time, depending on the aquifer inertia and climatic conditions. The groundwater levels variations during recharge (increase) are sensitive to the storage coefficient whereas the groundwater levels variations after recharge (decrease) are sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity. The performed model calibration on synthetic data sets shows that the parameters and recharge are estimated quite accurately.

Informational Entropy and Bridge Scour Estimation under Complex Hydraulic Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pizarro, Alonso; Link, Oscar; Fiorentino, Mauro; Samela, Caterina; Manfreda, Salvatore

2017-04-01

Bridges are important for society because they allow social, cultural and economic connectivity. Flood events can compromise the safety of bridge piers up to the complete collapse. The Bridge Scour phenomena has been described by empirical formulae deduced from hydraulic laboratory experiments. The range of applicability of such models is restricted by the specific hydraulic conditions or flume geometry used for their derivation (e.g., water depth, mean flow velocity, pier diameter and sediment properties). We seek to identify a general formulation able to capture the main dynamic of the process in order to cover a wide range of hydraulic and geometric configuration, allowing to extend our analysis in different contexts. Therefore, exploiting the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME) and applying it on the recently proposed dimensionless Effective flow work, W*, we derived a simple model characterized by only one parameter. The proposed Bridge Scour Entropic (BRISENT) model shows good performances under complex hydraulic conditions as well as under steady-state flow. Moreover, the model was able to capture the evolution of scour in several hydraulic configurations even if the model contains only one parameter. Furthermore, results show that the model parameter is controlled by the geometric configurations of the experiment. This offers a possible strategy to obtain a priori model parameter calibration. The BRISENT model represents a good candidate for estimating the time-dependent scour depth under complex hydraulic scenarios. The authors are keen to apply this idea for describing the scour behavior during a real flood event. Keywords: Informational entropy, Sediment transport, Bridge pier scour, Effective flow work.

Assessing the debris flow run-out frequency of a catchment in the French Alps using a parameterization analysis with the RAMMS numerical run-out model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, H. Y.; Luna, B. Quan; van Westen, C. J.; Christen, M.; Malet, J.-P.; van Asch, Th. W. J.

2012-04-01

Debris flows occurring in the European Alps frequently cause significant damage to settlements, power-lines and transportation infrastructure which has led to traffic disruptions, economic loss and even death. Estimating the debris flow run-out extent and the parameter uncertainty related to run-out modeling are some of the difficulties found in the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of debris flows. Also, the process of the entrainment of material into a debris flow is until now not completely understood. Debris flows observed in the French Alps entrain 5 - 50 times the amount of volume compared to the initially mobilized source volume. In this study we analyze a debris flow that occurred in 2003 at the Faucon catchment in the Barcelonnette Basin (Southern French Alps). The analysis was carried out using the Voellmy rheology and an entrainment model imbedded in the RAMMS 2D numerical modeling software. The historic event was back calibrated based on source, entrainment and deposit volumes, including the run-out distance, velocities and deposit heights of the debris flow. This was then followed by a sensitivity analysis of the rheological and entrainment parameters to produce 120 debris flow scenarios leading to a frequency assessment of the run-out distance and deposit height at the debris fan. The study shows that the Voellmy frictional parameters mainly influence the run-out distance and velocity of the flow, while the entrainment parameter has a major impact on the debris flow height. The frequency assessment of the 120 simulated scenarios further gives an indication on the most likely debris flow run-out extents and heights for this catchment. Such an assessment can be an important link between the rheological model parameters and the spatial probability of the run-out for the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of debris flows.

Development of an in-vitro circulatory system with known resistance and capacitance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Offerdahl, C. D.; Schaub, J. D.; Koenig, S. C.; Swope, R. D.; Ewert, D. L.; Convertino, V. A. (Principal Investigator)

1996-01-01

An in-vitro (hydrodynamic) model of the circulatory system was developed. The model consisted of a pump, compliant tubing, and valves for resistance. The model is used to simulate aortic pressure and flow. These parameters were measured using a Konigsburg Pressure transducer and a Triton ART2 flow probe. In addition, venous pressure and flow were measured on the downstream side of the resistance. The system has a known compliance and resistance. Steady and pulsatile flow tests were conducted to determine the resistance of the model. A static compliance test was used to determine the compliance of the system. The aortic pressure and flow obtained from the hydrodynamic model will be used to test the accuracy of parameter estimation models such as the 2-element and 4-element Windkessel models and the 3-element Westkessel model. Verifying analytical models used in determining total peripheral resistance (TPR) and systemic arterial compliance (SAC) is important because it provides insight into hemodynamic parameters that indicate baroreceptor responsiveness to situations such as changes in gravitational acceleration.

Ground-Water Flow in the Vicinity of the Ho-Chunk Nation Communities of Indian Mission and Sand Pillow, Jackson County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunning, Charles P.; Mueller, Gregory D.; Juckem, Paul F.

2008-01-01

An analytic element ground-water-flow model was constructed to help understand the ground-water-flow system in the vicinity of the Ho-Chunk Nation communities of Indian Mission and Sand Pillow in Jackson County, Wisconsin. Data from interpretive reports, well-drillers' construction reports, and an exploratory augering program in 2003 indicate that sand and gravel of varying thickness (0-150 feet[ft]) and porous sandstone make up a composite aquifer that overlies Precambrian crystalline rock. The geometric mean values for horizontal hydraulic conductivity were estimated from specific-capacity data to be 61.3 feet per day (ft/d) for sand and gravel, 6.6 ft/d for sandstone, and 12.0 ft/d for the composite aquifer. A ground-water flow model was constructed, the near field of which encompassed the Levis and Morrison Creeks Watershed. The flow model was coupled to the parameter-estimation program UCODE to obtain a best fit between simulated and measured values of ground-water levels and estimated Q50 flow duration (base flow). Calibration of the model with UCODE provided a ground-water recharge rate of 9 inches per year and a horizontal hydraulic conductivity of 13 ft/d for the composite aquifer. Using these calibrated parameter values, simulated heads from the model were on average within 5 ft of the measured water levels. In addition, these parameter values provided an acceptable base-flow calibration for Hay, Dickey, and Levis Creeks; the calibration was particularly close for Levis Creek, which was the most frequently measured stream in the study area. The calibrated model was used to simulate ground-water levels and to determine the direction of ground-water flow in the vicinity of Indian Mission and Sand Pillow communities. Backward particle tracking was conducted for Sand Pillow production wells under two pumping simulations to determine their 20-year contributing areas. In the first simulation, new production wells 6, 7, and 8 were each pumped at 50 gallons per minute (gal/min). In the second simulation, new production wells 6, 7, and 8 and existing production well 5 were each pumped at 50 gal/min. The second simulation demonstrated interference between the existing production well 5 and the new production wells when all were pumping at 50 gal/min.

Conceptual Model Evaluation using Advanced Parameter Estimation Techniques with Heat as a Tracer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naranjo, R. C.; Morway, E. D.; Healy, R. W.

2016-12-01

Temperature measurements made at multiple depths beneath the sediment-water interface has proven useful for estimating seepage rates from surface-water channels and corresponding subsurface flow direction. Commonly, parsimonious zonal representations of the subsurface structure are defined a priori by interpretation of temperature envelopes, slug tests or analysis of soil cores. However, combining multiple observations into a single zone may limit the inverse model solution and does not take full advantage of the information content within the measured data. Further, simulating the correct thermal gradient, flow paths, and transient behavior of solutes may be biased by inadequacies in the spatial description of subsurface hydraulic properties. The use of pilot points in PEST offers a more sophisticated approach to estimate the structure of subsurface heterogeneity. This presentation evaluates seepage estimation in a cross-sectional model of a trapezoidal canal with intermittent flow representing four typical sedimentary environments. The recent improvements in heat as a tracer measurement techniques (i.e. multi-depth temperature probe) along with use of modern calibration techniques (i.e., pilot points) provides opportunities for improved calibration of flow models, and, subsequently, improved model predictions.

Scale-Dependent Solute Dispersion in Variably Saturated Porous Media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rockhold, Mark L.; Zhang, Z. F.; Bott, Yi-Ju

2016-03-29

This work was performed to support performance assessment (PA) calculations for the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) at the Hanford Site. PA calculations require defensible estimates of physical, hydraulic, and transport parameters to simulate subsurface water flow and contaminant transport in both the near- and far-field environments. Dispersivity is one of the required transport parameters.

Novel nuclei isolation buffer for flow cytometric genome size estimation of Zingiberaceae: a comparison with common isolation buffers

PubMed Central

Sadhu, Abhishek; Bhadra, Sreetama; Bandyopadhyay, Maumita

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Cytological parameters such as chromosome numbers and genome sizes of plants are used routinely for studying evolutionary aspects of polyploid plants. Members of Zingiberaceae show a wide range of inter- and intrageneric variation in their reproductive habits and ploidy levels. Conventional cytological study in this group of plants is severely hampered by the presence of diverse secondary metabolites, which also affect their genome size estimation using flow cytometry. None of the several nuclei isolation buffers used in flow cytometry could be used very successfully for members of Zingiberaceae to isolate good quality nuclei from both shoot and root tissues. Methods The competency of eight nuclei isolation buffers was compared with a newly formulated buffer, MB01, in six different genera of Zingiberaceae based on the fluorescence intensity of propidium iodide-stained nuclei using flow cytometric parameters, namely coefficient of variation of the G0/G1 peak, debris factor and nuclei yield factor. Isolated nuclei were studied using fluorescence microscopy and bio-scanning electron microscopy to analyse stain–nuclei interaction and nuclei topology, respectively. Genome contents of 21 species belonging to these six genera were determined using MB01. Key Results Flow cytometric parameters showed significant differences among the analysed buffers. MB01 exhibited the best combination of analysed parameters; photomicrographs obtained from fluorescence and electron microscopy supported the superiority of MB01 buffer over other buffers. Among the 21 species studied, nuclear DNA contents of 14 species are reported for the first time. Conclusions Results of the present study substantiate the enhanced efficacy of MB01, compared to other buffers tested, in the generation of acceptable cytograms from all species of Zingiberaceae studied. Our study facilitates new ways of sample preparation for further flow cytometric analysis of genome size of other members belonging to this highly complex polyploid family. PMID:27594649

Novel nuclei isolation buffer for flow cytometric genome size estimation of Zingiberaceae: a comparison with common isolation buffers.

PubMed

Sadhu, Abhishek; Bhadra, Sreetama; Bandyopadhyay, Maumita

2016-11-01

Cytological parameters such as chromosome numbers and genome sizes of plants are used routinely for studying evolutionary aspects of polyploid plants. Members of Zingiberaceae show a wide range of inter- and intrageneric variation in their reproductive habits and ploidy levels. Conventional cytological study in this group of plants is severely hampered by the presence of diverse secondary metabolites, which also affect their genome size estimation using flow cytometry. None of the several nuclei isolation buffers used in flow cytometry could be used very successfully for members of Zingiberaceae to isolate good quality nuclei from both shoot and root tissues. The competency of eight nuclei isolation buffers was compared with a newly formulated buffer, MB01, in six different genera of Zingiberaceae based on the fluorescence intensity of propidium iodide-stained nuclei using flow cytometric parameters, namely coefficient of variation of the G 0 /G 1 peak, debris factor and nuclei yield factor. Isolated nuclei were studied using fluorescence microscopy and bio-scanning electron microscopy to analyse stain-nuclei interaction and nuclei topology, respectively. Genome contents of 21 species belonging to these six genera were determined using MB01. Flow cytometric parameters showed significant differences among the analysed buffers. MB01 exhibited the best combination of analysed parameters; photomicrographs obtained from fluorescence and electron microscopy supported the superiority of MB01 buffer over other buffers. Among the 21 species studied, nuclear DNA contents of 14 species are reported for the first time. Results of the present study substantiate the enhanced efficacy of MB01, compared to other buffers tested, in the generation of acceptable cytograms from all species of Zingiberaceae studied. Our study facilitates new ways of sample preparation for further flow cytometric analysis of genome size of other members belonging to this highly complex polyploid family. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Observations of pockmark flow structure in Belfast Bay, Maine, Part 2: evidence for cavity flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fandel, Christina L.; Lippmann, Thomas C.; Foster, Diane L.; Brothers, Laura L.

2017-01-01

Pockmark flow circulation patterns were investigated through current measurements along the rim and center of two pockmarks in Belfast Bay, Maine. Observed time-varying current profiles have a complex vertical and directional structure that rotates significantly with depth and is strongly dependent on the phase of the tide. Observations of the vertical profiles of horizontal velocities in relation to relative geometric parameters of the pockmark are consistent with circulation patterns described qualitatively by cavity flow models (Ashcroft and Zhang 2005). The time-mean behavior of the shear layer is typically used to characterize cavity flow, and was estimated using vorticity thickness to quantify the growth rate of the shear layer horizontally across the pockmark. Estimated positive vorticity thickness spreading rates are consistent with cavity flow predictions, and occur at largely different rates between the two pockmarks. Previously modeled flow (Brothers et al. 2011) and laboratory measurements (Pau et al. 2014) over pockmarks of similar geometry to those examined herein are also qualitatively consistent with cavity flow circulation, suggesting that cavity flow may be a good first-order flow model for pockmarks in general.

Investigation of second grade fluid through temperature dependent thermal conductivity and non-Fourier heat flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, T.; Ahmad, Salman; Khan, M. Ijaz; Alsaedi, A.; Waqas, M.

2018-06-01

Here we investigated stagnation point flow of second grade fluid over a stretchable cylinder. Heat transfer is characterized by non-Fourier law of heat flux and thermal stratification. Temperature dependent thermal conductivity and activation energy are also accounted. Transformations procedure is applying to transform the governing PDE's into ODE's. Obtained system of ODE's are solved analytically by HAM. Influence of flow variables on velocity, temperature, concentration, skin friction and Sherwood number are analyzed. Obtained outcome shows that velocity enhanced through curvature parameter, viscoelastic parameter and velocities ratio variable. Temperature decays for larger Prandtl number, thermal stratification, thermal relaxation and curvature parameter. Sherwood number and concentration field show opposite behavior for higher estimation of activation energy, reaction rate, curvature parameter and Schmidt number.

Some Calculated Research Results of the Working Process Parameters of the Low Thrust Rocket Engine Operating on Gaseous Oxygen-Hydrogen Fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryzhkov, V.; Morozov, I.

2018-01-01

The paper presents the calculating results of the combustion products parameters in the tract of the low thrust rocket engine with thrust P ∼ 100 N. The article contains the following data: streamlines, distribution of total temperature parameter in the longitudinal section of the engine chamber, static temperature distribution in the cross section of the engine chamber, velocity distribution of the combustion products in the outlet section of the engine nozzle, static temperature near the inner wall of the engine. The presented parameters allow to estimate the efficiency of the mixture formation processes, flow of combustion products in the engine chamber and to estimate the thermal state of the structure.

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Retrieving cosmological signal using cosmic flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouillot, V.; Alimi, J.-M.

2011-12-01

To understand the origin of the anomalously high bulk flow at large scales, we use very large simulations in various cosmological models. To disentangle between cosmological and environmental effects, we select samples with bulk flow profiles similar to the observational data Watkins et al. (2009) which exhibit a maximum in the bulk flow at 53 h^{-1} Mpc. The estimation of the cosmological parameters Ω_M and σ_8, done on those samples, is correct from the rms mass fluctuation whereas this estimation gives completely false values when done on bulk flow measurements, hence showing a dependance of velocity fields on larger scales. By drawing a clear link between velocity fields at 53 h^{-1} Mpc and asymmetric patterns of the density field at 85 h^{-1} Mpc, we show that the bulk flow can depend largely on the environment. The retrieving of the cosmological signal is achieved by studying the convergence of the bulk flow towards the linear prediction at very large scale (˜ 150 h^{-1} Mpc).

RRAWFLOW: Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (v1.15)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

The Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (RRAWFLOW) is a lumped-parameter model that simulates streamflow, spring flow, groundwater level, or solute transport for a measurement point in response to a system input of precipitation, recharge, or solute injection. I introduce the first version of RRAWFLOW available for download and public use and describe additional options. The open-source code is written in the R language and is available at http://sd.water.usgs.gov/projects/RRAWFLOW/RRAWFLOW.html along with an example model of streamflow. RRAWFLOW includes a time-series process to estimate recharge from precipitation and simulates the response to recharge by convolution, i.e., the unit-hydrograph approach. Gamma functions are used for estimation of parametric impulse-response functions (IRFs); a combination of two gamma functions results in a double-peaked IRF. A spline fit to a set of control points is introduced as a new method for estimation of nonparametric IRFs. Several options are included to simulate time-variant systems. For many applications, lumped models simulate the system response with equal accuracy to that of distributed models, but moreover, the ease of model construction and calibration of lumped models makes them a good choice for many applications (e.g., estimating missing periods in a hydrologic record). RRAWFLOW provides professional hydrologists and students with an accessible and versatile tool for lumped-parameter modeling.

Determination of the equation parameters of carbon flow curves and estimated carbon flow and CO2 emissions from broiler production.

PubMed

Henn, J D; Bockor, L; Borille, R; Coldebella, A; Ribeiro, A M L; Kessler, A M

2015-09-01

The objective of this study was to determine the equation parameters of carbon (i.e., C) flow curves and to estimate C flow and carbon dioxide (i.e., CO2) emissions from the production of 1- to 49-day-old broilers from different genetic strains. In total, 384 1-day-old chicks were used, distributed into 4 groups: high-performance males (Cobb-M) and females (Cobb-F), and intermediate-performance males (C44-M) and females (C44-F), with 6 replicates/treatment according to a completely randomized study design. Carbon intake and retention were calculated based on diet and body C composition, and expired C was stoichiometrically estimated as digestible C intake-C retention-C in the urine. Litter C emission was estimated as initial litter C+C in the excreta-final litter C. Carbon flow curves were determined fitting data by nonlinear regression using the Gompertz function. Expired CO2 was calculated based on expired C. The applied nonlinear model presented goodness-of-fit for all responses (R2>0.99). Carbon dioxide production was highly correlated with growth rate. At 42 d age, CO2 expiration (g/bird) was 3,384.4 for Cobb-M, 2,947.9 for Cobb-F, 2,512.5 for C44-M, and 2185.1 for C44-F. Age also significantly affected CO2 production: to achieve 2.0 kg BW, CO2 expiration (g/bird) was 1,794.3 for Cobb-M, 2,016.5 for Cobb-F, 2617.7 for C44-M, and 3,092.3 for C44-F. The obtained equations present high predictability to estimate individual CO2 emissions in strains of Cobb and C44 broilers of any weight, or age, reared between 1 and 49 d age. © 2015 Poultry Science Association Inc.

bpshape wk4: a computer program that implements a physiological model for analyzing the shape of blood pressure waveforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ocasio, W. C.; Rigney, D. R.; Clark, K. P.; Mark, R. G.; Goldberger, A. L. (Principal Investigator)

1993-01-01

We describe the theory and computer implementation of a newly-derived mathematical model for analyzing the shape of blood pressure waveforms. Input to the program consists of an ECG signal, plus a single continuous channel of peripheral blood pressure, which is often obtained invasively from an indwelling catheter during intensive-care monitoring or non-invasively from a tonometer. Output from the program includes a set of parameter estimates, made for every heart beat. Parameters of the model can be interpreted in terms of the capacitance of large arteries, the capacitance of peripheral arteries, the inertance of blood flow, the peripheral resistance, and arterial pressure due to basal vascular tone. Aortic flow due to contraction of the left ventricle is represented by a forcing function in the form of a descending ramp, the area under which represents the stroke volume. Differential equations describing the model are solved by the method of Laplace transforms, permitting rapid parameter estimation by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Parameter estimates and their confidence intervals are given in six examples, which are chosen to represent a variety of pressure waveforms that are observed during intensive-care monitoring. The examples demonstrate that some of the parameters may fluctuate markedly from beat to beat. Our program will find application in projects that are intended to correlate the details of the blood pressure waveform with other physiological variables, pathological conditions, and the effects of interventions.

Simple Electrolyzer Model Development for High-Temperature Electrolysis System Analysis Using Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JaeHwa Koh; DuckJoo Yoon; Chang H. Oh

2010-07-01

An electrolyzer model for the analysis of a hydrogen-production system using a solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) has been developed, and the effects for principal parameters have been estimated by sensitivity studies based on the developed model. The main parameters considered are current density, area specific resistance, temperature, pressure, and molar fraction and flow rates in the inlet and outlet. Finally, a simple model for a high-temperature hydrogen-production system using the solid oxide electrolysis cell integrated with very high temperature reactors is estimated.

Multivariate models for prediction of rheological characteristics of filamentous fermentation broth from the size distribution.

PubMed

Petersen, Nanna; Stocks, Stuart; Gernaey, Krist V

2008-05-01

The main purpose of this article is to demonstrate that principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) can be used to extract information from particle size distribution data and predict rheological properties. Samples from commercially relevant Aspergillus oryzae fermentations conducted in 550 L pilot scale tanks were characterized with respect to particle size distribution, biomass concentration, and rheological properties. The rheological properties were described using the Herschel-Bulkley model. Estimation of all three parameters in the Herschel-Bulkley model (yield stress (tau(y)), consistency index (K), and flow behavior index (n)) resulted in a large standard deviation of the parameter estimates. The flow behavior index was not found to be correlated with any of the other measured variables and previous studies have suggested a constant value of the flow behavior index in filamentous fermentations. It was therefore chosen to fix this parameter to the average value thereby decreasing the standard deviation of the estimates of the remaining rheological parameters significantly. Using a PLSR model, a reasonable prediction of apparent viscosity (micro(app)), yield stress (tau(y)), and consistency index (K), could be made from the size distributions, biomass concentration, and process information. This provides a predictive method with a high predictive power for the rheology of fermentation broth, and with the advantages over previous models that tau(y) and K can be predicted as well as micro(app). Validation on an independent test set yielded a root mean square error of 1.21 Pa for tau(y), 0.209 Pa s(n) for K, and 0.0288 Pa s for micro(app), corresponding to R(2) = 0.95, R(2) = 0.94, and R(2) = 0.95 respectively. Copyright 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On a Model of a Nonlinear Feedback System for River Flow Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, T.

1980-02-01

A nonlinear system with feedback is proposed as a dynamic model for the hydrological system, whose input is the rainfall and whose output is the discharge of river flow. Parameters and orders of the model are estimated using Akaike's information criterion. Its application to the prediction of daily discharges of Kanna River and Bird Creek is discussed.

Parameterization of the Voice Source by Combining Spectral Decay and Amplitude Features of the Glottal Flow.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alku, Paavo; Vilkman, Erkki; Laukkanen, Anne-Maria

1998-01-01

A new method is presented for the parameterization of glottal volume velocity waveforms that have been estimated by inverse filtering acoustic speech pressure signals. The new technique combines two features of voice production: the AC value and the spectral decay of the glottal flow. Testing found the new parameter correlates strongly with the…

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2011-01-01

An emerging approach in the field of aircraft engine controls and system health management is the inclusion of real-time, onboard models for the inflight estimation of engine performance variations. This technology, typically based on Kalman-filter concepts, enables the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters that can be directly utilized by controls, prognostics, and health-management applications. A challenge that complicates this practice is the fact that an aircraft engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. Through Kalman-filter-based estimation techniques, the level of engine performance degradation can be estimated, given that there are at least as many sensors as health parameters to be estimated. However, in an aircraft engine, the number of sensors available is typically less than the number of health parameters, presenting an under-determined estimation problem. A common approach to address this shortcoming is to estimate a subset of the health parameters, referred to as model tuning parameters. The problem/objective is to optimally select the model tuning parameters to minimize Kalman-filterbased estimation error. A tuner selection technique has been developed that specifically addresses the under-determined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error of the Kalman filter. This approach can significantly reduce the error in onboard aircraft engine parameter estimation applications such as model-based diagnostic, controls, and life usage calculations. The advantage of the innovation is the significant reduction in estimation errors that it can provide relative to the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the model tuning parameter vector. Because this technique needs only to be performed during the system design process, it places no additional computation burden on the onboard Kalman filter implementation. The technique has been developed for aircraft engine onboard estimation applications, as this application typically presents an under-determined estimation problem. However, this generic technique could be applied to other industries using gas turbine engine technology.

Calculations of High-Temperature Jet Flow Using Hybrid Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes Formulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Elmiligui, Alaa; Giriamaji, Sharath S.

2008-01-01

Two multiscale-type turbulence models are implemented in the PAB3D solver. The models are based on modifying the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equations. The first scheme is a hybrid Reynolds-averaged- Navier Stokes/large-eddy-simulation model using the two-equation k(epsilon) model with a Reynolds-averaged-Navier Stokes/large-eddy-simulation transition function dependent on grid spacing and the computed turbulence length scale. The second scheme is a modified version of the partially averaged Navier Stokes model in which the unresolved kinetic energy parameter f(sub k) is allowed to vary as a function of grid spacing and the turbulence length scale. This parameter is estimated based on a novel two-stage procedure to efficiently estimate the level of scale resolution possible for a given flow on a given grid for partially averaged Navier Stokes. It has been found that the prescribed scale resolution can play a major role in obtaining accurate flow solutions. The parameter f(sub k) varies between zero and one and is equal to one in the viscous sublayer and when the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes turbulent viscosity becomes smaller than the large-eddy-simulation viscosity. The formulation, usage methodology, and validation examples are presented to demonstrate the enhancement of PAB3D's time-accurate turbulence modeling capabilities. The accurate simulations of flow and turbulent quantities will provide a valuable tool for accurate jet noise predictions. Solutions from these models are compared with Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes results and experimental data for high-temperature jet flows. The current results show promise for the capability of hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes and large eddy simulation and partially averaged Navier Stokes in simulating such flow phenomena.

An engineering analysis of a closed cycle plant growth module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stickford, G. H., Jr.; Jakob, F. E.; Landstrom, D. K.

1986-01-01

The SOLGEM model is a numerical engineering model which solves the flow and energy balance equations for the air flowing through a growing environment, assuming quasi-steady state conditions within the system. SOLGEM provides a dynamic simulation of the controlled environment system in that the temperature and flow conditions of the growing environment are estimated on an hourly basis in response to the weather data and the plant growth parameters. The flow energy balance considers the incident solar flux; incoming air temperature, humidity, and flow rate; heat exchange with the roof and floor; and heat and moisture exchange with the plants. A plant transpiration subroutine was developed based plant growth research facility, intended for the study of bioregenerative life support theories. The results of a performance analysis of the plant growth module are given. The estimated energy requirements of the module components and the total energy are given.

An inverse modeling approach to estimate groundwater flow and transport model parameters at a research site at Vandenberg AFB, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasa, E.; Foglia, L.; Mackay, D. M.; Ginn, T. R.; Scow, K. M.

2009-12-01

A numerical groundwater fate and transport model was developed for analyses of data from field experiments evaluating the impacts of ethanol on the natural attenuation of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Site 60. We used the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) groundwater flow (MODFLOW2000) and transport (MT3DMS) models in conjunction with the USGS universal inverse modeling code (UCODE) to jointly determine flow and transport parameters using bromide tracer data from multiple experiments in the same location. The key flow and transport parameters include hydraulic conductivity of aquifer and aquitard layers, porosity, and transverse and longitudinal dispersivity. Aquifer and aquitard layers were assumed homogenous in this study. Therefore, the calibration parameters were not spatially variable within each layer. A total of 162 monitoring wells in seven transects perpendicular to the mean flow direction were monitored over the course of ten months, resulting in 1,766 bromide concentration data points and 149 head values used as observations for the inverse modeling. The results showed the significance of the concentration observation data in predicting the flow model parameters and indicated the sensitivity of the hydraulic conductivity of different zones in the aquifer including the excavated former contaminant zone. The model has already been used to evaluate alternative designs for further experiments on in situ bioremediation of the tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) plume remaining at the site. We describe the recent applications of the model and future work, including adding reaction submodels to the calibrated flow model.

Validation of a computer code for analysis of subsonic aerodynamic performance of wings with flaps in combination with a canard or horizontal tail and an application to optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Harry W.; Darden, Christine M.; Mann, Michael J.

1990-01-01

Extensive correlations of computer code results with experimental data are employed to illustrate the use of a linearized theory, attached flow method for the estimation and optimization of the longitudinal aerodynamic performance of wing-canard and wing-horizontal tail configurations which may employ simple hinged flap systems. Use of an attached flow method is based on the premise that high levels of aerodynamic efficiency require a flow that is as nearly attached as circumstances permit. The results indicate that linearized theory, attached flow, computer code methods (modified to include estimated attainable leading-edge thrust and an approximate representation of vortex forces) provide a rational basis for the estimation and optimization of aerodynamic performance at subsonic speeds below the drag rise Mach number. Generally, good prediction of aerodynamic performance, as measured by the suction parameter, can be expected for near optimum combinations of canard or horizontal tail incidence and leading- and trailing-edge flap deflections at a given lift coefficient (conditions which tend to produce a predominantly attached flow).

Estimation of ZnSe Slow-Crack-Growth Properties for Design of the Flow Enclosure Accommodating Novel Investigations in Combustion of Solids (FEANICS) Windows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2005-01-01

This report reviews some of the literature on the fracture strength, fracture toughness, and crack growth properties of chemical-vapor-deposited ZnSe. The literature was reviewed to determine if the existing data on ZnSe is adequate to design windows for the Flow Enclosure Accommodating Novel Investigations in Combustion of Solids (FEANICS) project. Unfortunately, most of the published reports do not give all of the necessary design parameters despite having measured the data to do so. Further, the original data is not available. The data tabulated herein was determined by digitizing plots in original reprints of the publications. Based on the published data, an estimate of the slow-crack-growth parameters for small cracks in 100 percent humidity was made. For 100 percent humidity, the slow-crack-growth parameters n and A for small crack (or single crystal) failure were estimated. Weibull moduli estimated from bending of beams and circular plates ranged from 4 to 9, while fracture strengths ranged from 29 MPa in water to 72 MPa in dry nitrogen. Fracture toughness measurements yielded ranges, with the lower values representing failure from small flaws within grains and the larger values representing macroscopic cracks. Much of the data analyzed exhibited significant scatter, and the standard deviations were very large.

Numerical investigation for entropy generation in hydromagnetic flow of fluid with variable properties and slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. Ijaz; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2018-02-01

This modeling and computations present the study of viscous fluid flow with variable properties by a rotating stretchable disk. Rotating flow is generated through nonlinear rotating stretching surface. Nonlinear thermal radiation and heat generation/absorption are studied. Flow is conducting for a constant applied magnetic field. No polarization is taken. Induced magnetic field is not taken into account. Attention is focused on the entropy generation rate and Bejan number. The entropy generation rate and Bejan number clearly depend on velocity and thermal fields. The von Kármán approach is utilized to convert the partial differential expressions into ordinary ones. These expressions are non-dimensionalized, and numerical results are obtained for flow variables. The effects of the magnetic parameter, Prandtl number, radiative parameter, heat generation/absorption parameter, and slip parameter on velocity and temperature fields as well as the entropy generation rate and Bejan number are discussed. Drag forces (radial and tangential) and heat transfer rates are calculated and discussed. Furthermore the entropy generation rate is a decreasing function of magnetic variable and Reynolds number. The Bejan number effect on the entropy generation rate is reverse to that of the magnetic variable. Also opposite behavior of heat transfers is observed for varying estimations of radiative and slip variables.

Construction and calibration of a groundwater-flow model to assess groundwater availability in the uppermost principal aquifer systems of the Williston Basin, United States and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Long, Andrew J.

2018-05-31

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater-flow model for the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston Basin in parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States and parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability in the area. The assessment was done because of the potential for increased demands and stresses on groundwater associated with large-scale energy development in the area. As part of this assessment, a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed as a tool that can be used to simulate how the groundwater-flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses at a regional scale.The three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey’s numerical finite-difference groundwater model with the Newton-Rhapson solver, MODFLOW–NWT, to represent the glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems for steady-state (mean) hydrological conditions for 1981‒2005 and for transient (temporally varying) conditions using a combination of a steady-state period for pre-1960 and transient periods for 1961‒2005. The numerical model framework was constructed based on existing and interpreted hydrogeologic and geospatial data and consisted of eight layers. Two layers were used to represent the glacial aquifer system in the model; layer 1 represented the upper one-half and layer 2 represented the lower one-half of the glacial aquifer system. Three layers were used to represent the lower Tertiary aquifer system in the model; layer 3 represented the upper Fort Union aquifer, layer 4 represented the middle Fort Union hydrogeologic unit, and layer 5 represented the lower Fort Union aquifer. Three layers were used to represent the Upper Cretaceous aquifer system in the model; layer 6 represented the upper Hell Creek hydrogeologic unit, layer 7 represented the lower Hell Creek aquifer, and layer 8 represented the Fox Hills aquifer. The numerical model was constructed using a uniform grid with square cells that are about 1 mile (1,600 meters) on each side with a total of about 657,000 active cells.Model calibration was completed by linking Parameter ESTimation (PEST) software with MODFLOW–NWT. The PEST software uses statistical parameter estimation techniques to identify an optimum set of input parameters by adjusting individual model input parameters and assessing the differences, or residuals, between observed (measured or estimated) data and simulated values. Steady-state model calibration consisted of attempting to match mean simulated values to measured or estimated values of (1) hydraulic head, (2) hydraulic head differences between model layers, (3) stream infiltration, and (4) discharge to streams. Calibration of the transient model consisted of attempting to match simulated and measured temporally distributed values of hydraulic head changes, stream base flow, and groundwater discharge to artesian flowing wells. Hydraulic properties estimated through model calibration included hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, aquifer storage, and riverbed hydraulic conductivity in addition to groundwater recharge and well skin.The ability of the numerical model to accurately simulate groundwater flow in the Williston Basin was assessed primarily by its ability to match calibration targets for hydraulic head, stream base flow, and flowing well discharge. The steady-state model also was used to assess the simulated potentiometric surfaces in the upper Fort Union aquifer, the lower Fort Union aquifer, and the Fox Hills aquifer. Additionally, a previously estimated regional groundwater-flow budget was compared with the simulated steady-state groundwater-flow budget for the Williston Basin. The simulated potentiometric surfaces typically compared well with the estimated potentiometric surfaces based on measured hydraulic head data and indicated localized groundwater-flow gradients that were topographically controlled in outcrop areas and more generalized regional gradients where the aquifers were confined. The differences between the measured and simulated (residuals) hydraulic head values for 11,109 wells were assessed, which indicated that the steady-state model generally underestimated hydraulic head in the model area. This underestimation is indicated by a positive mean residual of 11.2 feet for all model layers. Layer 7, which represents the lower Hell Creek aquifer, is the only layer for which the steady-state model overestimated hydraulic head. Simulated groundwater-level changes for the transient model matched within plus or minus 2.5 feet of the measured values for more than 60 percent of all measurements and to within plus or minus 17.5 feet for 95 percent of all measurements; however, the transient model underestimated groundwater-level changes for all model layers. A comparison between simulated and estimated base flows for the steady-state and transient models indicated that both models overestimated base flow in streams and underestimated annual fluctuations in base flow.The estimated and simulated groundwater budgets indicate the model area received a substantial amount of recharge from precipitation and stream infiltration. The steady-state model indicated that reservoir seepage was a larger component of recharge in the Williston Basin than was previously estimated. Irrigation recharge and groundwater inflow from outside the Williston Basin accounted for a relatively small part of total groundwater recharge when compared with recharge from precipitation, stream infiltration, and reservoir seepage. Most of the estimated and simulated groundwater discharge in the Williston Basin was to streams and reservoirs. Simulated groundwater withdrawal, discharge to reservoirs, and groundwater outflow in the Williston Basin accounted for a smaller part of total groundwater discharge.The transient model was used to simulate discharge to 571 flowing artesian wells within the model area. Of the 571 established flowing artesian wells simulated by the model, 271 wells did not flow at any time during the simulation because hydraulic head was always below the land-surface altitude. As hydraulic head declined throughout the simulation, 68 of these wells responded by ceasing to flow by the end of 2005. Total mean simulated discharge for the 571 flowing artesian wells was 55.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and the mean simulated flowing well discharge for individual wells was 0.118 ft3/s. Simulated discharge to individual flowing artesian wells increased from 0.039 to 0.177 ft3/s between 1961 and 1975 and decreased to 0.102 ft3/s by 2005. The mean residual for 34 flowing wells with measured discharge was 0.014 ft3/s, which indicates the transient model overestimated discharge to flowing artesian wells in the model area.Model limitations arise from aspects of the conceptual model and from simplifications inherent in the construction and calibration of a regional-scale numerical groundwater-flow model. Simplifying assumptions in defining hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater-flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale; nevertheless, the steady-state model adequately simulated flow in the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston Basin based on the comparison between the simulated and estimated groundwater-flow budget, the comparison between simulated and estimated potentiometric surfaces, and the results of the calibration process.

Assessment of Ground-Water Resources in the Seacoast Region of New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.

2009-01-01

Numerical ground-water-flow models were developed for a 160-square-mile area of coastal New Hampshire to provide insight into the recharge, discharge, and availability of ground water. Population growth and increasing water use prompted concern for the sustainability of the region's ground-water resources. Previously, the regional hydraulic characteristics of the fractured bedrock aquifer in the Seacoast region of New Hampshire were not well known. In the current study, the ground-water-flow system was assessed by using two different models developed and calibrated under steady-state seasonal low-flow and transient monthly conditions to ground-water heads and base-flow discharges. The models were, (1) a steady-state model representing current (2003-04) seasonal low-flow conditions used to simulate current and future projected water use during low-flow conditions; and (2) a transient model representing current average and estimated future monthly conditions over a 2-year period used to simulate current and future projected climate-change conditions. The analysis by the ground-water-flow models indicates that the Seacoast aquifer system is a transient flow system with seasonal variations in ground-water flow. A pseudosteady- state condition exists in the fall when the steady-state model was calibrated. The average annual recharge during the period analyzed, 2000-04, was approximately 51 percent of the annual precipitation. The average net monthly recharge rate between 2003 and 2004 varied from 5.5 inches per month in March, to zero in July, and to about 0.3 inches per month in August and September. Recharge normally increases to about 2 inches per month in late fall and early winter (November through December) and declines to about 1.5 inches per month in late winter (January and February). About 50 percent of the annual recharge coincides with snowmelt in the spring (March and April), and 20 percent occurs in the late fall and early winter (November through February). Net recharge, calculated as infiltration of precipitation minus evapotranspiration, can be negative during summer months (particularly July). Regional bulk hydraulic conductivities of the bedrock aquifer were estimated to be about 0.1 to 1.0 feet per day. Estimated hydraulic conductivities in model areas representing the Rye Complex and the Kittery Formation were higher (0.5 to 1 foot per day) than in areas representing the Eliot Formation, the Exeter Diorite, and the Newburyport Complex, which have estimated hydraulic conductivities of 0.1 to 0.2 foot per day. A northeast-southwest regional anisotropy of about 5:1 was estimated in some areas of the model; this pattern is parallel to the regional structural trend and predominant fracture orientation. In areas of the model with more observation data, the upper and lower 95-percent confidence intervals for the estimated bedrock hydraulic conductivity were about half an order of magnitude above and below the parameter, respectively, and the estimated confidence intervals for estimated specific storage were within an order of magnitude of the parameter. In areas of the model with few data points, or few stresses, confidence intervals were several orders of magnitude. Estimated model parameters and their confidence intervals are a function of the conceptual model design, observation data, and the weights placed on the data. The amount of recharge that enters the bedrock aquifer at a specific point depends on (1) the location of the point in the flow field; (2) the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (or the connectivity of fractures); and (3) the stresses within the bedrock aquifer. In addition, ground water stored in unconsolidated overburden sediments, including till and other fine-grained sediments, may constitute a large percentage of the water available from storage to the bedrock aquifer. Recharge into the bedrock aquifer at a point can range from zero to nearly all the recharge at the surface dependin

Decorrelation Times of Photospheric Fields and Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welsch, B. T.; Kusano, K.; Yamamoto, T. T.; Muglach, K.

2012-01-01

We use autocorrelation to investigate evolution in flow fields inferred by applying Fourier Local Correlation Tracking (FLCT) to a sequence of high-resolution (0.3 "), high-cadence (approx = 2 min) line-of-sight magnetograms of NOAA active region (AR) 10930 recorded by the Narrowband Filter Imager (NFI) of the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite over 12 - 13 December 2006. To baseline the timescales of flow evolution, we also autocorrelated the magnetograms, at several spatial binnings, to characterize the lifetimes of active region magnetic structures versus spatial scale. Autocorrelation of flow maps can be used to optimize tracking parameters, to understand tracking algorithms f susceptibility to noise, and to estimate flow lifetimes. Tracking parameters varied include: time interval Delta t between magnetogram pairs tracked, spatial binning applied to the magnetograms, and windowing parameter sigma used in FLCT. Flow structures vary over a range of spatial and temporal scales (including unresolved scales), so tracked flows represent a local average of the flow over a particular range of space and time. We define flow lifetime to be the flow decorrelation time, tau . For Delta t > tau, tracking results represent the average velocity over one or more flow lifetimes. We analyze lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls as functions of magnetic field strength and spatial scale. We find a significant trend of increasing lifetimes of flow components, divergences, and curls with field strength, consistent with Lorentz forces partially governing flows in the active photosphere, as well as strong trends of increasing flow lifetime and decreasing magnitudes with increases in both spatial scale and Delta t.

Estimation of Flow Channel Parameters for Flowing Gas Mixed with Air in Atmospheric-pressure Plasma Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yambe, Kiyoyuki; Saito, Hidetoshi

2017-12-01

When the working gas of an atmospheric-pressure non-equilibrium (cold) plasma flows into free space, the diameter of the resulting flow channel changes continuously. The shape of the channel is observed through the light emitted by the working gas of the atmospheric-pressure plasma. When the plasma jet forms a conical shape, the diameter of the cylindrical shape, which approximates the conical shape, defines the diameter of the flow channel. When the working gas flows into the atmosphere from the inside of a quartz tube, the gas mixes with air. The molar ratio of the working gas and air is estimated from the corresponding volume ratio through the relationship between the diameter of the cylindrical plasma channel and the inner diameter of the quartz tube. The Reynolds number is calculated from the kinematic viscosity of the mixed gas and the molar ratio. The gas flow rates for the upper limit of laminar flow and the lower limit of turbulent flow are determined by the corresponding Reynolds numbers estimated from the molar ratio. It is confirmed that the plasma jet length and the internal plasma length associated with strong light emission increase with the increasing gas flow rate until the rate for the upper limit of laminar flow and the lower limit of turbulent flow, respectively. Thus, we are able to explain the increasing trend in the plasma lengths with the diameter of the flow channel and the molar ratio by using the cylindrical approximation.

Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative log-normal cascades.

PubMed

Leövey, Andrés E; Lux, Thomas

2012-04-01

We study the well-known multiplicative log-normal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and log normally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the nonstationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a formalism, its parameters have been estimated mostly by fitting the numerical approximation of the associated non-Gaussian probability density function to empirical data, cf. Castaing et al. [Physica D 46, 177 (1990)]. More recently, alternative estimators based upon various moments have been proposed by Beck [Physica D 193, 195 (2004)] and Kiyono et al. [Phys. Rev. E 76, 041113 (2007)]. In this paper, we pursue this moment-based approach further and develop a more rigorous generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We show that even under uncertainty about the actual number of cascade steps, our methodology yields very reliable results for the estimated intermittency parameter. Employing the Levinson-Durbin algorithm for best linear forecasts, we also show that estimated parameters can be used for forecasting the evolution of the turbulent flow. We compare forecasting results from the GMM and Kiyono et al.'s procedure via Monte Carlo simulations. We finally test the applicability of our approach by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and foreign exchange markets.

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guetzkow, Lowell C.

1977-01-01

 Estimating relations have been developed to provide engineers and designers with improved techniques for defining flow-frequency characteristics to satisfy hydraulic planning and design requirements. The magnitude and frequency of floods up to the 100-year recurrence interval can be determined for most streams in Minnesota by methods presented. By multiple regression analysis, equations have been developed for estimating flood-frequency relations at ungaged sites on natural flow streams. Eight distinct hydrologic regions are delineated within the State with boundaries defined generally by river basin divides. Regression equations are provided for each region which relate selected frequency floods to significant basin parameters. For main-stem streams, graphs are presented showing floods for selected recurrence intervals plotted against contributing drainage area. Flow-frequency estimates for intervening sites along the Minnesota River, Mississippi River, and the Red River of the North can be derived from these graphs. Flood-frequency characteristics are tabulated for 201 paging stations having 10 or more years of record.

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate discharge and recharge fluxes for the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Turner, A.K.; ,

1996-01-01

The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were used to calculate discharge volumes for these area. An empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by remote sensing and GIS techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. This map provided a basis for subsequent evapotranspiration and infiltration estimations. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were then used to calculate discharge volumes for these areas. A previously used empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified by GIS methods to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.

Preliminary comparison between real-time in-vivo spectral and transverse oscillation velocity estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, Mads Møller; Pihl, Michael Johannes; Haugaard, Per; Hansen, Jens Munk; Lindskov Hansen, Kristoffer; Bachmann Nielsen, Michael; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

2011-03-01

Spectral velocity estimation is considered the gold standard in medical ultrasound. Peak systole (PS), end diastole (ED), and resistive index (RI) are used clinically. Angle correction is performed using a flow angle set manually. With Transverse Oscillation (TO) velocity estimates the flow angle, peak systole (PSTO), end diastole (EDTO), and resistive index (RITO) are estimated. This study investigates if these clinical parameters are estimated equally good using spectral and TO data. The right common carotid arteries of three healthy volunteers were scanned longitudinally. Average TO flow angles and std were calculated { 52+/-18 ; 55+/-23 ; 60+/-16 }°. Spectral angles { 52 ; 56 ; 52 }° were obtained from the B-mode images. Obtained values are: PSTO { 76+/-15 ; 89+/-28 ; 77+/-7 } cm/s, spectral PS { 77 ; 110 ; 76 } cm/s, EDTO { 10+/-3 ; 14+/-8 ; 15+/-3 } cm/s, spectral ED { 18 ; 13 ; 20 } cm/s, RITO { 0.87+/-0.05 ; 0.79+/-0.21 ; 0.79+/-0.06 }, and spectral RI { 0.77 ; 0.88 ; 0.73 }. Vector angles are within +/-two std of the spectral angle. TO velocity estimates are within +/-three std of the spectral estimates. RITO are within +/-two std of the spectral estimates. Preliminary data indicates that the TO and spectral velocity estimates are equally good. With TO there is no manual angle setting and no flow angle limitation. TO velocity estimation can also automatically handle situations where the angle varies over the cardiac cycle. More detailed temporal and spatial vector estimates with diagnostic potential are available with the TO velocity estimation.

Estimation of stream conditions in tributaries of the Klamath River, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.

2018-01-01

Because of their critical ecological role, stream temperature and discharge are requisite inputs for models of salmonid population dynamics. Coho Salmon inhabiting the Klamath Basin spend much of their freshwater life cycle inhabiting tributaries, but environmental data are often absent or only seasonally available at these locations. To address this information gap, we constructed daily averaged water temperature models that used simulated meteorological data to estimate daily tributary temperatures, and we used flow differentials recorded on the mainstem Klamath River to estimate daily tributary discharge. Observed temperature data were available for fourteen of the major salmon bearing tributaries, which enabled estimation of tributary-specific model parameters at those locations. Water temperature data from six mid-Klamath Basin tributaries were used to estimate a global set of parameters for predicting water temperatures in the remaining tributaries. The resulting parameter sets were used to simulate water temperatures for each of 75 tributaries from 1980-2015. Goodness-of-fit statistics computed from a cross-validation analysis demonstrated a high precision of the tributary-specific models in predicting temperature in unobserved years and of the global model in predicting temperatures in unobserved streams. Klamath River discharge has been monitored by four gages that broadly intersperse the 292 kilometers from the Iron Gate Dam to the Klamath River mouth. These gages defined the upstream and downstream margins of three reaches. Daily discharge of tributaries within a reach was estimated from 1980-2015 based on drainage-area proportionate allocations of the discharge differential between the upstream and downstream margin. Comparisons with measured discharge on Indian Creek, a moderate-sized tributary with naturally regulated flows, revealed that the estimates effectively approximated both the variability and magnitude of discharge.

Time-Average Measurement of Velocity, Density, Temperature, and Turbulence Using Molecular Rayleigh Scattering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielke, Amy F.; Seasholtz, Richard G.; Elam, Krisie A.; Panda, Jayanta

2004-01-01

Measurement of time-averaged velocity, density, temperature, and turbulence in gas flows using a nonintrusive, point-wise measurement technique based on molecular Rayleigh scattering is discussed. Subsonic and supersonic flows in a 25.4-mm diameter free jet facility were studied. The developed instrumentation utilizes a Fabry-Perot interferometer to spectrally resolve molecularly scattered light from a laser beam passed through a gas flow. The spectrum of the scattered light contains information about velocity, density, and temperature of the gas. The technique uses a slow scan, low noise 16-bit depth CCD camera to record images of the fringes formed by Rayleigh scattered light passing through the interferometer. A kinetic theory model of the Rayleigh scattered light is used in a nonlinear least squares fitting routine to estimate the unknown parameters from the fringe images. The ability to extract turbulence information from the fringe image data proved to be a challenge since the fringe is broadened by not only turbulence, but also thermal fluctuations and aperture effects from collecting light over a range of scattering angles. Figure 1 illustrates broadening of a Rayleigh spectrum typical of flow conditions observed in this work due to aperture effects and turbulence for a scattering angle, chi(sub s), of 90 degrees, f/3.67 collection optics, mean flow velocity, u(sub k), of 300 m/s, and turbulent velocity fluctuations, sigma (sub uk), of 55 m/s. The greatest difficulty in processing the image data was decoupling the thermal and turbulence broadening in the spectrum. To aid in this endeavor, it was necessary to seed the ambient air with smoke and dust particulates; taking advantage of the turbulence broadening in the Mie scattering component of the spectrum of the collected light (not shown in the figure). The primary jet flow was not seeded due to the difficulty of the task. For measurement points lacking particles, velocity, density, and temperature information could reliably be recovered, however the turbulence estimates contained significant uncertainty. Resulting flow parameter estimates are presented for surveys of Mach 0.6, 0.95, and 1.4 jet flows. Velocity, density, and temperature were determined with accuracies of 5 m/s, 1.5%, and 1%, respectively, in flows with no particles present, and with accuracies of 5 m/s, 1-4%, and 2% in flows with particles. Comparison with hotwire data for the Mach 0.6 condition demonstrated turbulence estimates with accuracies of about 5 m/s outside the jet core where Mie scattering from dust/smoke particulates aided in the estimation of turbulence. Turbulence estimates could not be recovered with any significant accuracy for measurement points where no particles were present.

Review: Optimization methods for groundwater modeling and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, William W.-G.

2015-09-01

Optimization methods have been used in groundwater modeling as well as for the planning and management of groundwater systems. This paper reviews and evaluates the various optimization methods that have been used for solving the inverse problem of parameter identification (estimation), experimental design, and groundwater planning and management. Various model selection criteria are discussed, as well as criteria used for model discrimination. The inverse problem of parameter identification concerns the optimal determination of model parameters using water-level observations. In general, the optimal experimental design seeks to find sampling strategies for the purpose of estimating the unknown model parameters. A typical objective of optimal conjunctive-use planning of surface water and groundwater is to minimize the operational costs of meeting water demand. The optimization methods include mathematical programming techniques such as linear programming, quadratic programming, dynamic programming, stochastic programming, nonlinear programming, and the global search algorithms such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, and tabu search. Emphasis is placed on groundwater flow problems as opposed to contaminant transport problems. A typical two-dimensional groundwater flow problem is used to explain the basic formulations and algorithms that have been used to solve the formulated optimization problems.

Computations of Axisymmetric Flows in Hypersonic Shock Tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, Surendra P.; Wilson, Gregory J.

1995-01-01

A time-accurate two-dimensional fluid code is used to compute test times in shock tubes operated at supersonic speeds. Unlike previous studies, this investigation resolves the finer temporal details of the shock-tube flow by making use of modern supercomputers and state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamic solution techniques. The code, besides solving the time-dependent fluid equations, also accounts for the finite rate chemistry in the hypersonic environment. The flowfield solutions are used to estimate relevant shock-tube parameters for laminar flow, such as test times, and to predict density and velocity profiles. Boundary-layer parameters such as bar-delta(sub u), bar-delta(sup *), and bar-tau(sub w), and test time parameters such as bar-tau and particle time of flight t(sub f), are computed and compared with those evaluated by using Mirels' correlations. This article then discusses in detail the effects of flow nonuniformities on particle time-of-flight behind the normal shock and, consequently, on the interpretation of shock-tube data. This article concludes that for accurate interpretation of shock-tube data, a detailed analysis of flowfield parameters, using a computer code such as used in this study, must be performed.

Rapid estimation of characteristics of gas dynamic lasers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murty, S. S. R.

1974-01-01

Sudden-freeze approximation is applied to the flow of a CO2-N2-He mixture in wedge-type nozzles. This approximation permits rapid estimation of the freezing temperature of the upper laser level as a function of the stagnation pressure and the nozzle geometry. The stagnation temperature and the composition of the mixture appear as parameters. Gain and power output may then be estimated and calculations are presented for two cases.

Estimating parameters from rotating ring disc electrode measurements

DOE PAGES

Santhanagopalan, Shriram; White, Ralph E.

2017-10-21

Rotating ring disc electrode (RRDE) experiments are a classic tool for investigating kinetics of electrochemical reactions. Several standardized methods exist for extracting transport parameters and reaction rate constants using RRDE measurements. Here in this work, we compare some approximate solutions to the convective diffusion used popularly in the literature to a rigorous numerical solution of the Nernst-Planck equations coupled to the three dimensional flow problem. In light of these computational advancements, we explore design aspects of the RRDE that will help improve sensitivity of our parameter estimation procedure to experimental data. We use the oxygen reduction in acidic media involvingmore » three charge transfer reactions and a chemical reaction as an example, and identify ways to isolate reaction currents for the individual processes in order to accurately estimate the exchange current densities.« less

Time-Average Molecular Rayleigh Scattering Technique for Measurement of Velocity, Denisty, Temperature, and Turbulence Intensity in High Speed Nozzle Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielke, Amy F.; Seasholtz, Richard G.; Elam, Kristie A.; Panda, Jayanta

2004-01-01

A molecular Rayleigh scattering based flow diagnostic is developed to measure time average velocity, density, temperature, and turbulence intensity in a 25.4-mm diameter nozzle free jet facility. The spectrum of the Rayleigh scattered light is analyzed using a Fabry-Perot interferometer operated in the static imaging mode. The resulting fringe pattern containing spectral information of the scattered light is recorded using a low noise CCD camera. Nonlinear least squares analysis of the fringe pattern using a kinetic theory model of the Rayleigh scattered light provides estimates of density, velocity, temperature, and turbulence intensity of the gas flow. Resulting flow parameter estimates are presented for an axial scan of subsonic flow at Mach 0.95 for comparison with previously acquired pitot tube data, and axial scans of supersonic flow in an underexpanded screeching jet. The issues related to obtaining accurate turbulence intensity measurements using this technique are discussed.

Effects of numerical dissipation and unphysical excursions on scalar-mixing estimates in large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharan, Nek; Matheou, Georgios; Dimotakis, Paul

2017-11-01

Artificial numerical dissipation decreases dispersive oscillations and can play a key role in mitigating unphysical scalar excursions in large eddy simulations (LES). Its influence on scalar mixing can be assessed through the resolved-scale scalar, Z , its probability density function (PDF), variance, spectra, and the budget of the horizontally averaged equation for Z2. LES of incompressible temporally evolving shear flow enabled us to study the influence of numerical dissipation on unphysical scalar excursions and mixing estimates. Flows with different mixing behavior, with both marching and non-marching scalar PDFs, are studied. Scalar fields for each flow are compared for different grid resolutions and numerical scalar-convection term schemes. As expected, increasing numerical dissipation enhances scalar mixing in the development stage of shear flow characterized by organized large-scale pairings with a non-marching PDF, but has little influence in the self-similar stage of flows with marching PDFs. Flow parameters and regimes sensitive to numerical dissipation help identify approaches to mitigate unphysical excursions while minimizing dissipation.

ECOUL: an interactive computer tool to study hydraulic behavior of swelling and rigid soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrier, Edith; Garnier, Patricia; Leclerc, Christian

2002-11-01

ECOUL is an interactive, didactic software package which simulates vertical water flow in unsaturated soils. End-users are given an easily-used tool to predict the evolution of the soil water profile, with a large range of possible boundary conditions, through a classical numerical solution scheme for the Richards equation. Soils must be characterized by water retention curves and hydraulic conductivity curves, the form of which can be chosen among different analytical expressions from the literature. When the parameters are unknown, an inverse method is provided to estimate them from available experimental flow data. A significant original feature of the software is to include recent algorithms extending the water flow model to deal with deforming porous media: widespread swelling soils, the volume of which varies as a function of water content, must be described by a third hydraulic characteristic property, the deformation curve. Again, estimation of the parameters by means of inverse procedures and visualization facilities enable exploration, understanding and then prediction of soil hydraulic behavior under various experimental conditions.

Modification of Turbulent Pipe Flow Equations to Estimate the Vertical Velocity Profiles Under Woody Debris Jams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervania, A.; Knack, I. M. W.

2017-12-01

The presence of woody debris (WD) jams in rivers and streams increases the risk of backwater flooding and reduces the navigability of a channel, but adds fish and macroinvertebrate habitat to the stream. When designing river engineering projects engineers use hydraulic models to predict flow behavior around these obstructions. However, the complexities of flow through and beneath WD jams are still poorly understood. By increasing the ability to predict flow behavior around WD jams, landowners and engineers are empowered to develop sustainable practices regarding the removal or placement of WD in rivers and flood plains to balance the desirable and undesirable effects to society and the environment. The objective of this study is to address some of this knowledge gap by developing a method to estimate the vertical velocity profile of flow under WD jams. When flow passes under WD jams, it becomes affected by roughness elements on all sides, similar to turbulent flows in pipe systems. Therefore, the method was developed using equations that define the velocity profiles of turbulent pipe flows: the law of the wall, the logarithmic law, and the velocity defect law. Flume simulations of WD jams were conducted and the vertical velocity profiles were measured along the centerline. A calculated velocity profile was fit to the measured profile through the calibration of eight parameters. An optimal value or range of values have been determined for several of these parameters using cross-validation techniques. The results indicate there may be some promise to using this method in hydraulic models.

Identification of groundwater parameters at Columbus, Mississippi, using a 3D inverse flow and transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlebo, H.C.; Rosbjerg, D.; Hill, M.C.

1996-01-01

An extensive amount of data including hydraulic heads, hydraulic conductivities and concentrations of several solutes from controlled injections have been collected during the MADE 1 and MADE 2 experiments at a heterogeneous site near Columbus, Mississippi. In this paper the use of three-dimensional inverse groundwater models including simultaneous estimation of flow and transport parameters is proposed to help identify the dominant characteristics at the site. Simulations show that using a hydraulic conductivity distribution obtained from 2187 borehole flowmeter tests directly in the model produces poor matches to the measured hydraulic heads and tritium concentrations. Alternatively, time averaged hydraulic head maps are used to define zones of constant hydraulic conductivity to be estimated. Preliminary simulations suggest that in the case of conservative transport many, but not all, of the major plume characteristics can be explained by large-scale heterogeneity in recharge and hydraulic conductivity.

Characterization of turbulence stability through the identification of multifractional Brownian motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. C.

2013-02-01

Multifractional Brownian motions have become popular as flexible models in describing real-life signals of high-frequency features in geoscience, microeconomics, and turbulence, to name a few. The time-changing Hurst exponent, which describes regularity levels depending on time measurements, and variance, which relates to an energy level, are two parameters that characterize multifractional Brownian motions. This research suggests a combined method of estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent and variance using the local variation of sampled paths of signals. The method consists of two phases: initially estimating global variance and then accurately estimating the time-changing Hurst exponent. A simulation study shows its performance in estimation of the parameters. The proposed method is applied to characterization of atmospheric stability in which descriptive statistics from the estimated time-changing Hurst exponent and variance classify stable atmosphere flows from unstable ones.

Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

2017-04-01

Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019430

A hydro-sedimentary modeling system for flash flood propagation and hazard estimation under different agricultural practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourgialas, N. N.; Karatzas, G. P.

2014-03-01

A modeling system for the estimation of flash flood flow velocity and sediment transport is developed in this study. The system comprises three components: (a) a modeling framework based on the hydrological model HSPF, (b) the hydrodynamic module of the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi-2-D), and (c) the advection-dispersion module of MIKE 11 as a sediment transport model. An important parameter in hydraulic modeling is the Manning's coefficient, an indicator of the channel resistance which is directly dependent on riparian vegetation changes. Riparian vegetation's effect on flood propagation parameters such as water depth (inundation), discharge, flow velocity, and sediment transport load is investigated in this study. Based on the obtained results, when the weed-cutting percentage is increased, the flood wave depth decreases while flow discharge, velocity and sediment transport load increase. The proposed modeling system is used to evaluate and illustrate the flood hazard for different riparian vegetation cutting scenarios. For the estimation of flood hazard, a combination of the flood propagation characteristics of water depth, flow velocity and sediment load was used. Next, a well-balanced selection of the most appropriate agricultural cutting practices of riparian vegetation was performed. Ultimately, the model results obtained for different agricultural cutting practice scenarios can be employed to create flood protection measures for flood-prone areas. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of a small Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece.

Influence of sampling frequency and load calculation methods on quantification of annual river nutrient and suspended solids loads.

PubMed

Elwan, Ahmed; Singh, Ranvir; Patterson, Maree; Roygard, Jon; Horne, Dave; Clothier, Brent; Jones, Geoffrey

2018-01-11

Better management of water quality in streams, rivers and lakes requires precise and accurate estimates of different contaminant loads. We assessed four sampling frequencies (2 days, weekly, fortnightly and monthly) and five load calculation methods (global mean (GM), rating curve (RC), ratio estimator (RE), flow-stratified (FS) and flow-weighted (FW)) to quantify loads of nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 - -N), soluble inorganic nitrogen (SIN), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS), in the Manawatu River, New Zealand. The estimated annual river loads were compared to the reference 'true' loads, calculated using daily measurements of flow and water quality from May 2010 to April 2011, to quantify bias (i.e. accuracy) and root mean square error 'RMSE' (i.e. accuracy and precision). The GM method resulted into relatively higher RMSE values and a consistent negative bias (i.e. underestimation) in estimates of annual river loads across all sampling frequencies. The RC method resulted in the lowest RMSE for TN, TP and TSS at monthly sampling frequency. Yet, RC highly overestimated the loads for parameters that showed dilution effect such as NO 3 - -N and SIN. The FW and RE methods gave similar results, and there was no essential improvement in using RE over FW. In general, FW and RE performed better than FS in terms of bias, but FS performed slightly better than FW and RE in terms of RMSE for most of the water quality parameters (DRP, TP, TN and TSS) using a monthly sampling frequency. We found no significant decrease in RMSE values for estimates of NO 3 - N, SIN, TN and DRP loads when the sampling frequency was increased from monthly to fortnightly. The bias and RMSE values in estimates of TP and TSS loads (estimated by FW, RE and FS), however, showed a significant decrease in the case of weekly or 2-day sampling. This suggests potential for a higher sampling frequency during flow peaks for more precise and accurate estimates of annual river loads for TP and TSS, in the study river and other similar conditions.

Is Earth-based scaling a valid procedure for calculating heat flows for Mars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, Javier; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Dohm, James M.; Fernández, Carlos; López, Valle

2013-09-01

Heat flow is a very important parameter for constraining the thermal evolution of a planetary body. Several procedures for calculating heat flows for Mars from geophysical or geological proxies have been used, which are valid for the time when the structures used as indicators were formed. The more common procedures are based on estimates of lithospheric strength (the effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere or the depth to the brittle-ductile transition). On the other hand, several works by Kargel and co-workers have estimated martian heat flows from scaling the present-day terrestrial heat flow to Mars, but the so-obtained values are much higher than those deduced from lithospheric strength. In order to explain the discrepancy, a recent paper by Rodriguez et al. (Rodriguez, J.A.P., Kargel, J.S., Tanaka, K.L., Crown, D.A., Berman, D.C., Fairén, A.G., Baker, V.R., Furfaro, R., Candelaria, P., Sasaki, S. [2011]. Icarus 213, 150-194) criticized the heat flow calculations for ancient Mars presented by Ruiz et al. (Ruiz, J., Williams, J.-P., Dohm, J.M., Fernández, C., López, V. [2009]. Icarus 207, 631-637) and other studies calculating ancient martian heat flows from lithospheric strength estimates, and casted doubts on the validity of the results obtained by these works. Here however we demonstrate that the discrepancy is due to computational and conceptual errors made by Kargel and co-workers, and we conclude that the scaling from terrestrial heat flow values is not a valid procedure for estimating reliable heat flows for Mars.

A reduced theoretical model for estimating condensation effects in combustion-heated hypersonic tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, L.; Luo, X.; Qin, F.; Yang, J.

2018-03-01

As one of the combustion products of hydrocarbon fuels in a combustion-heated wind tunnel, water vapor may condense during the rapid expansion process, which will lead to a complex two-phase flow inside the wind tunnel and even change the design flow conditions at the nozzle exit. The coupling of the phase transition and the compressible flow makes the estimation of the condensation effects in such wind tunnels very difficult and time-consuming. In this work, a reduced theoretical model is developed to approximately compute the nozzle-exit conditions of a flow including real-gas and homogeneous condensation effects. Specifically, the conservation equations of the axisymmetric flow are first approximated in the quasi-one-dimensional way. Then, the complex process is split into two steps, i.e., a real-gas nozzle flow but excluding condensation, resulting in supersaturated nozzle-exit conditions, and a discontinuous jump at the end of the nozzle from the supersaturated state to a saturated state. Compared with two-dimensional numerical simulations implemented with a detailed condensation model, the reduced model predicts the flow parameters with good accuracy except for some deviations caused by the two-dimensional effect. Therefore, this reduced theoretical model can provide a fast, simple but also accurate estimation of the condensation effect in combustion-heated hypersonic tunnels.

A new approach to estimate parameters of speciation models with application to apes.

PubMed

Becquet, Celine; Przeworski, Molly

2007-10-01

How populations diverge and give rise to distinct species remains a fundamental question in evolutionary biology, with important implications for a wide range of fields, from conservation genetics to human evolution. A promising approach is to estimate parameters of simple speciation models using polymorphism data from multiple loci. Existing methods, however, make a number of assumptions that severely limit their applicability, notably, no gene flow after the populations split and no intralocus recombination. To overcome these limitations, we developed a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters of an isolation-migration model. The approach uses summaries of polymorphism data at multiple loci surveyed in a pair of diverging populations or closely related species and, importantly, allows for intralocus recombination. To illustrate its potential, we applied it to extensive polymorphism data from populations and species of apes, whose demographic histories are largely unknown. The isolation-migration model appears to provide a reasonable fit to the data. It suggests that the two chimpanzee species became reproductively isolated in allopatry approximately 850 Kya, while Western and Central chimpanzee populations split approximately 440 Kya but continued to exchange migrants. Similarly, Eastern and Western gorillas and Sumatran and Bornean orangutans appear to have experienced gene flow since their splits approximately 90 and over 250 Kya, respectively.

Developing a particle tracking surrogate model to improve inversion of ground water - Surface water models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousquer, Yohann; Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Ferré, Ty P. A.; Delbart, Célestine; Valois, Rémi; Dupuy, Alain

2018-03-01

The inverse problem of groundwater models is often ill-posed and model parameters are likely to be poorly constrained. Identifiability is improved if diverse data types are used for parameter estimation. However, some models, including detailed solute transport models, are further limited by prohibitive computation times. This often precludes the use of concentration data for parameter estimation, even if those data are available. In the case of surface water-groundwater (SW-GW) models, concentration data can provide SW-GW mixing ratios, which efficiently constrain the estimate of exchange flow, but are rarely used. We propose to reduce computational limits by simulating SW-GW exchange at a sink (well or drain) based on particle tracking under steady state flow conditions. Particle tracking is used to simulate advective transport. A comparison between the particle tracking surrogate model and an advective-dispersive model shows that dispersion can often be neglected when the mixing ratio is computed for a sink, allowing for use of the particle tracking surrogate model. The surrogate model was implemented to solve the inverse problem for a real SW-GW transport problem with heads and concentrations combined in a weighted hybrid objective function. The resulting inversion showed markedly reduced uncertainty in the transmissivity field compared to calibration on head data alone.

Quality of traffic flow on urban arterial streets and its relationship with safety.

PubMed

Dixit, Vinayak V; Pande, Anurag; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Das, Abhishek; Radwan, Essam

2011-09-01

The two-fluid model for vehicular traffic flow explains the traffic on arterials as a mix of stopped and running vehicles. It describes the relationship between the vehicles' running speed and the fraction of running vehicles. The two parameters of the model essentially represent 'free flow' travel time and level of interaction among vehicles, and may be used to evaluate urban roadway networks and urban corridors with partially limited access. These parameters are influenced by not only the roadway characteristics but also by behavioral aspects of driver population, e.g., aggressiveness. Two-fluid models are estimated for eight arterial corridors in Orlando, FL for this study. The parameters of the two-fluid model were used to evaluate corridor level operations and the correlations of these parameters' with rates of crashes having different types/severity. Significant correlations were found between two-fluid parameters and rear-end and angle crash rates. Rate of severe crashes was also found to be significantly correlated with the model parameter signifying inter-vehicle interactions. While there is need for further analysis, the findings suggest that the two-fluid model parameters may have potential as surrogate measures for traffic safety on urban arterial streets. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Summary of groundwater-recharge estimates for Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stuart O. Reese,; Risser, Dennis W.

2010-01-01

Groundwater recharge is water that infiltrates through the subsurface to the zone of saturation beneath the water table. Because recharge is a difficult parameter to quantify, it is typically estimated from measurements of other parameters like streamflow and precipitation. This report provides a general overview of processes affecting recharge in Pennsylvania and presents estimates of recharge rates from studies at various scales.The most common method for estimating recharge in Pennsylvania has been to estimate base flow from measurements of streamflow and assume that base flow (expressed in inches over the basin) approximates recharge. Statewide estimates of mean annual groundwater recharge were developed by relating base flow to basin characteristics of HUC10 watersheds (a fifth-level classification that uses 10 digits to define unique hydrologic units) using a regression equation. The regression analysis indicated that mean annual precipitation, average daily maximum temperature, percent of sand in soil, percent of carbonate rock in the watershed, and average stream-channel slope were significant factors in the explaining the variability of groundwater recharge across the Commonwealth.Several maps are included in this report to illustrate the principal factors affecting recharge and provide additional information about the spatial distribution of recharge in Pennsylvania. The maps portray the patterns of precipitation, temperature, prevailing winds across Pennsylvania’s varied physiography; illustrate the error associated with recharge estimates; and show the spatial variability of recharge as a percent of precipitation. National, statewide, regional, and local values of recharge, based on numerous studies, are compiled to allow comparison of estimates from various sources. Together these plates provide a synopsis of groundwater-recharge estimations and factors in Pennsylvania.Areas that receive the most recharge are typically those that get the most rainfall, have favorable surface conditions for infiltration, and are less susceptible to the influences of high temperatures, and thus, evapotranspiration. Areas that have less recharge in Pennsylvania are typically those with less precipitation, less permeable soils, and higher temperatures that are conducive to greater rates of evapotranspiration.

Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, M.J.

2008-01-01

A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2-26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Semi-analytical solution of flow to a well in an unconfined-fractured aquifer system separated by an aquitard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedghi, Mohammad M.; Samani, Nozar; Barry, D. A.

2018-04-01

Semi-analytical solutions are presented for flow to a well in an extensive homogeneous and anisotropic unconfined-fractured aquifer system separated by an aquitard. The pumping well is of infinitesimal radius and screened in either the overlying unconfined aquifer or the underlying fractured aquifer. An existing linearization method was used to determine the watertable drainage. The solution was obtained via Laplace and Hankel transforms, with results calculated by numerical inversion. The main findings are presented in the form of non-dimensional drawdown-time curves, as well as scaled sensitivity-dimensionless time curves. The new solution permits determination of the influence of fractures, matrix blocks and watertable drainage parameters on the aquifer drawdown. The effect of the aquitard on the drawdown response of the overlying unconfined aquifer and the underlying fractured aquifer was also explored. The results permit estimation of the unconfined and fractured aquifer hydraulic parameters via type-curve matching or coupling of the solution with a parameter estimation code. The solution can also be used to determine aquifer hydraulic properties from an optimal pumping test set up and duration.

A new approach to flow simulation using hybrid models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solgi, Abazar; Zarei, Heidar; Nourani, Vahid; Bahmani, Ramin

2017-11-01

The necessity of flow prediction in rivers, for proper management of water resource, and the need for determining the inflow to the dam reservoir, designing efficient flood warning systems and so forth, have always led water researchers to think about models with high-speed response and low error. In the recent years, the development of Artificial Neural Networks and Wavelet theory and using the combination of models help researchers to estimate the river flow better and better. In this study, daily and monthly scales were used for simulating the flow of Gamasiyab River, Nahavand, Iran. The first simulation was done using two types of ANN and ANFIS models. Then, using wavelet theory and decomposing input signals of the used parameters, sub-signals were obtained and were fed into the ANN and ANFIS to obtain hybrid models of WANN and WANFIS. In this study, in addition to the parameters of precipitation and flow, parameters of temperature and evaporation were used to analyze their effects on the simulation. The results showed that using wavelet transform improved the performance of the models in both monthly and daily scale. However, it had a better effect on the monthly scale and the WANFIS was the best model.

A Data-Driven Approach to Develop Physically Sound Predictors: Application to Depth-Averaged Velocities and Drag Coefficients on Vegetated Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinoco, R. O.; Goldstein, E. B.; Coco, G.

2016-12-01

We use a machine learning approach to seek accurate, physically sound predictors, to estimate two relevant flow parameters for open-channel vegetated flows: mean velocities and drag coefficients. A genetic programming algorithm is used to find a robust relationship between properties of the vegetation and flow parameters. We use data published from several laboratory experiments covering a broad range of conditions to obtain: a) in the case of mean flow, an equation that matches the accuracy of other predictors from recent literature while showing a less complex structure, and b) for drag coefficients, a predictor that relies on both single element and array parameters. We investigate different criteria for dataset size and data selection to evaluate their impact on the resulting predictor, as well as simple strategies to obtain only dimensionally consistent equations, and avoid the need for dimensional coefficients. The results show that a proper methodology can deliver physically sound models representative of the processes involved, such that genetic programming and machine learning techniques can be used as powerful tools to study complicated phenomena and develop not only purely empirical, but "hybrid" models, coupling results from machine learning methodologies into physics-based models.

Hydrograph structure informed calibration in the frequency domain with time localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumarasamy, K.; Belmont, P.

2015-12-01

Complex models with large number of parameters are commonly used to estimate sediment yields and predict changes in sediment loads as a result of changes in management or conservation practice at large watershed (>2000 km2) scales. As sediment yield is a strongly non-linear function that responds to channel (peak or mean) velocity or flow depth, it is critical to accurately represent flows. The process of calibration in such models (e.g., SWAT) generally involves the adjustment of several parameters to obtain better estimates of goodness of fit metrics such as Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE). However, such indicators only provide a global view of model performance, potentially obscuring accuracy of the timing or magnitude of specific flows of interest. We describe an approach for streamflow calibration that will greatly reduce the black-box nature of calibration, when response from a parameter adjustment is not clearly known. Fourier Transform or the Short Term Fourier Transform could be used to characterize model performance in the frequency domain as well, however, the ambiguity of a Fourier transform with regards to time localization renders its implementation in a model calibration setting rather useless. Brief and sudden changes (e.g. stream flow peaks) in signals carry the most interesting information from parameter adjustments, which are completely lost in the transform without time localization. Wavelet transform captures the frequency component in the signal without compromising time and is applied to contrast changes in signal response to parameter adjustments. Here we employ the mother wavelet called the Mexican hat wavelet and apply a Continuous Wavelet Transform to understand the signal in the frequency domain. Further, with the use of the cross-wavelet spectrum we examine the relationship between the two signals (prior or post parameter adjustment) in the time-scale plane (e.g., lower scales correspond to higher frequencies). The non-stationarity of the streamflow signal does not hinder this assessment and regions of change called boundaries of influence (seasons or time when such change occurs in the hydrograph) for each parameter are delineated. In addition, we can discover the structural component of the signal (e.g., shifts or amplitude change) that has changed.

The measurement and estimation of the low-pressure gas viscosity of the replacement ternary blend halo-alkane refrigerant MP-39

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, G. P.; Dowdell, D. C.; Wells, I.

1997-07-01

A capillary gas flow viscometer has been used to measure the shear viscosity of the ternary blend refrigerant MP-39 (52% chlorodifluoromethane; 15% 1,1-difluoroethane and 33% 2-chloro-1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) in the gaseous phase at pressures up to 0.1 MPa, relative to a nitrogen standard in the temperature range 308 - 403 K. Recorded flow times were corrected for small temperature drifts, kinetic energy effects, gas imperfection effects and slip flow. The pressure and temperature conditions were chosen such that curved pipe flow and turbulence effects were negligible. The resulting viscosities agree to within 3.1% with predictions based on the semi-empirical equations of Wilke and of Herning and Zipperer. Potential parameters for the three mixture components are presented, but the incompatibility of these parameters precludes their use in the more sophisticated Brokaw approximation.

On the Yield Strength of Oceanic Lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Chhavi; Korenaga, Jun; Karato, Shun-ichiro

2017-10-01

The yield strength of oceanic lithosphere determines the mode of mantle convection in a terrestrial planet, and low-temperature plasticity in olivine aggregates is generally believed to govern the plastic rheology of the stiffest part of lithosphere. Because, so far, proposed flow laws for this mechanism exhibit nontrivial discrepancies, we revisit the recent high-pressure deformation data of Mei et al. (2010) with a comprehensive inversion approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Our inversion results indicate that the uncertainty of the relevant flow law parameters is considerably greater than previously thought. Depending on the choice of flow law parameters, the strength of oceanic lithosphere would vary substantially, carrying different implications for the origin of plate tectonics on Earth. To reduce the flow law ambiguity, we suggest that it is important to establish a theoretical basis for estimating macroscopic stress in high-pressure experiments and also to better utilize marine geophysical observations.

The dynamics of Black Smokers: a heated-salty plume analog.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxworthy, Tony

2004-11-01

Experiments have been carried out on the dynamical processes that govern the evolution of hot, salty plumes injected into cold surroundings. Under the appropriate circumstances these are then used as an analoque system to understand some features of particle-laden, deep-ocean, hydrothermal plumes, e.g., Black Smokers. Details of the temperature distributions over a wide range of parameters are presented and these, coupled with flow visualization experiments, have yielded a fairly complete picture of the important features of the flow. As a result it has been concluded that cabelling processes are critical to an understanding of the flow reversals found in a certain parameter range and that double diffusive processes, though present, are of minor importance. As a final exercise an example is worked through in which the circumstances for flow reversal in deep-sea plumes have been estimated based on the best available knowledge of these interesting entities.

Estimation of regional-scale groundwater flow properties in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, H.A.; Voss, C.I.

2009-01-01

Quantitative evaluation of management strategies for long-term supply of safe groundwater for drinking from the Bengal Basin aquifer (India and Bangladesh) requires estimation of the large-scale hydrogeologic properties that control flow. The Basin consists of a stratified, heterogeneous sequence of sediments with aquitards that may separate aquifers locally, but evidence does not support existence of regional confining units. Considered at a large scale, the Basin may be aptly described as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity. Though data are sparse, estimation of regional-scale aquifer properties is possible from three existing data types: hydraulic heads, 14C concentrations, and driller logs. Estimation is carried out with inverse groundwater modeling using measured heads, by model calibration using estimated water ages based on 14C, and by statistical analysis of driller logs. Similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities result from all three data types; a resulting typical value of vertical anisotropy (ratio of horizontal to vertical conductivity) is 104. The vertical anisotropy estimate is supported by simulation of flow through geostatistical fields consistent with driller log data. The high estimated value of vertical anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity indicates that even disconnected aquitards, if numerous, can strongly control the equivalent hydraulic parameters of an aquifer system. ?? US Government 2009.

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

2008-01-01

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

RRAWFLOW: Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (v1.15)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, A. J.

2015-03-01

The Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (RRAWFLOW) is a lumped-parameter model that simulates streamflow, spring flow, groundwater level, or solute transport for a measurement point in response to a system input of precipitation, recharge, or solute injection. I introduce the first version of RRAWFLOW available for download and public use and describe additional options. The open-source code is written in the R language and is available at http://sd.water.usgs.gov/projects/RRAWFLOW/RRAWFLOW.html along with an example model of streamflow. RRAWFLOW includes a time-series process to estimate recharge from precipitation and simulates the response to recharge by convolution, i.e., the unit-hydrograph approach. Gamma functions are used for estimation of parametric impulse-response functions (IRFs); a combination of two gamma functions results in a double-peaked IRF. A spline fit to a set of control points is introduced as a new method for estimation of nonparametric IRFs. Several options are included to simulate time-variant systems. For many applications, lumped models simulate the system response with equal accuracy to that of distributed models, but moreover, the ease of model construction and calibration of lumped models makes them a good choice for many applications (e.g., estimating missing periods in a hydrologic record). RRAWFLOW provides professional hydrologists and students with an accessible and versatile tool for lumped-parameter modeling.

HEART: an automated beat-to-beat cardiovascular analysis package using Matlab.

PubMed

Schroeder, M J Mark J; Perreault, Bill; Ewert, D L Daniel L; Koenig, S C Steven C

2004-07-01

A computer program is described for beat-to-beat analysis of cardiovascular parameters from high-fidelity pressure and flow waveforms. The Hemodynamic Estimation and Analysis Research Tool (HEART) is a post-processing analysis software package developed in Matlab that enables scientists and clinicians to document, load, view, calibrate, and analyze experimental data that have been digitally saved in ascii or binary format. Analysis routines include traditional hemodynamic parameter estimates as well as more sophisticated analyses such as lumped arterial model parameter estimation and vascular impedance frequency spectra. Cardiovascular parameter values of all analyzed beats can be viewed and statistically analyzed. An attractive feature of the HEART program is the ability to analyze data with visual quality assurance throughout the process, thus establishing a framework toward which Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) compliance can be obtained. Additionally, the development of HEART on the Matlab platform provides users with the flexibility to adapt or create study specific analysis files according to their specific needs. Copyright 2003 Elsevier Ltd.

Design and parameter estimation of hybrid magnetic bearings for blood pump applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Tau Meng; Zhang, Dongsheng; Yang, Juanjuan; Cheng, Shanbao; Low, Sze Hsien; Chua, Leok Poh; Wu, Xiaowei

2009-10-01

This paper discusses the design and parameter estimation of the dynamics characteristics of a high-speed hybrid magnetic bearings (HMBs) system for axial flow blood pump applications. The rotor/impeller of the pump is driven by a three-phase permanent magnet (PM) brushless and sensorless DC motor. It is levitated by two HMBs at both ends in five-degree-of-freedom with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers; among which four radial directions are actively controlled and one axial direction is passively controlled. Test results show that the rotor can be stably supported to speeds of 14,000 rpm. The frequency domain parameter estimation technique with statistical analysis is adopted to validate the stiffness and damping coefficients of the HMBs system. A specially designed test rig facilitated the estimation of the bearing's coefficients in air—in both the radial and axial directions. The radial stiffness of the HMBs is compared to the Ansoft's Maxwell 2D/3D finite element magnetostatic results. Experimental estimation showed that the dynamics characteristics of the HMBs system are dominated by the frequency-dependent stiffness coefficients. The actuator gain was also successfully calibrated and may potentially extend the parameter estimation technique developed in the study of identification and monitoring of the pump's dynamics properties under normal operating conditions with fluid.

Inferring Aquifer Transmissivity from River Flow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trichakis, Ioannis; Pistocchi, Alberto

2016-04-01

Daily streamflow data is the measurable result of many different hydrological processes within a basin; therefore, it includes information about all these processes. In this work, recession analysis applied to a pan-European dataset of measured streamflow was used to estimate hydrogeological parameters of the aquifers that contribute to the stream flow. Under the assumption that base-flow in times of no precipitation is mainly due to groundwater, we estimated parameters of European shallow aquifers connected with the stream network, and identified on the basis of the 1:1,500,000 scale Hydrogeological map of Europe. To this end, Master recession curves (MRCs) were constructed based on the RECESS model of the USGS for 1601 stream gauge stations across Europe. The process consists of three stages. Firstly, the model analyses the stream flow time-series. Then, it uses regression to calculate the recession index. Finally, it infers characteristics of the aquifer from the recession index. During time-series analysis, the model identifies those segments, where the number of successive recession days is above a certain threshold. The reason for this pre-processing lies in the necessity for an adequate number of points when performing regression at a later stage. The recession index derives from the semi-logarithmic plot of stream flow over time, and the post processing involves the calculation of geometrical parameters of the watershed through a GIS platform. The program scans the full stream flow dataset of all the stations. For each station, it identifies the segments with continuous recession that exceed a predefined number of days. When the algorithm finds all the segments of a certain station, it analyses them and calculates the best linear fit between time and the logarithm of flow. The algorithm repeats this procedure for the full number of segments, thus it calculates many different values of recession index for each station. After the program has found all the recession segments, it performs calculations to determine the expression for the MRC. Further processing of the MRCs can yield estimates of transmissivity or response time representative of the aquifers upstream of the station. These estimates can be useful for large scale (e.g. continental) groundwater modelling. The above procedure allowed calculating values of transmissivity for a large share of European aquifers, ranging from Tmin = 4.13E-04 m²/d to Tmax = 8.12E+03 m²/d, with an average value Taverage = 9.65E+01 m²/d. These results are in line with the literature, indicating that the procedure may provide realistic results for large-scale groundwater modelling. In this contribution we present the results in the perspective of their application for the parameterization of a pan-European bi-dimensional shallow groundwater flow model.

Fluid flow in porous media using image-based modelling to parametrize Richards' equation.

PubMed

Cooper, L J; Daly, K R; Hallett, P D; Naveed, M; Koebernick, N; Bengough, A G; George, T S; Roose, T

2017-11-01

The parameters in Richards' equation are usually calculated from experimentally measured values of the soil-water characteristic curve and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The complex pore structures that often occur in porous media complicate such parametrization due to hysteresis between wetting and drying and the effects of tortuosity. Rather than estimate the parameters in Richards' equation from these indirect measurements, image-based modelling is used to investigate the relationship between the pore structure and the parameters. A three-dimensional, X-ray computed tomography image stack of a soil sample with voxel resolution of 6 μm has been used to create a computational mesh. The Cahn-Hilliard-Stokes equations for two-fluid flow, in this case water and air, were applied to this mesh and solved using the finite-element method in COMSOL Multiphysics. The upscaled parameters in Richards' equation are then obtained via homogenization. The effect on the soil-water retention curve due to three different contact angles, 0°, 20° and 60°, was also investigated. The results show that the pore structure affects the properties of the flow on the large scale, and different contact angles can change the parameters for Richards' equation.

A new method for calculation of water saturation in shale gas reservoirs using V P -to-V S ratio and porosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kun; Sun, Jianmeng; Zhang, Hongpan; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Xiangyang

2018-02-01

Total water saturation is an important parameter for calculating the free gas content of shale gas reservoirs. Owing to the limitations of the Archie formula and its extended solutions in zones rich in organic or conductive minerals, a new method was proposed to estimate total water saturation according to the relationship between total water saturation, V P -to-V S ratio and total porosity. Firstly, the ranges of the relevant parameters in the viscoelastic BISQ model in shale gas reservoirs were estimated. Then, the effects of relevant parameters on the V P -to-V S ratio were simulated based on the partially saturated viscoelastic BISQ model. These parameters were total water saturation, total porosity, permeability, characteristic squirt-flow length, fluid viscosity and sonic frequency. The simulation results showed that the main factors influencing V P -to-V S ratio were total porosity and total water saturation. When the permeability and the characteristic squirt-flow length changed slightly for a particular shale gas reservoir, their influences could be neglected. Then an empirical equation for total water saturation with respect to total porosity and V P -to-V S ratio was obtained according to the experimental data. Finally, the new method was successfully applied to estimate total water saturation in a sequence formation of shale gas reservoirs. Practical applications have shown good agreement with the results calculated by the Archie model.

Sensitivity analysis of hydraulic and thermal parameters inducing anomalous heat flow in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goretzki, Nora; Inbar, Nimrod; Kühn, Michael; Möller, Peter; Rosenthal, Eliyahu; Schneider, Michael; Siebert, Christian; Magri, Fabien

2016-04-01

The Lower Yarmouk Gorge, at the border between Israel and Jordan, is characterized by an anomalous temperature gradient of 46 °C/km. Numerical simulations of thermally-driven flow show that ascending thermal waters are the result of mixed convection, i.e. the interaction between the regional flow from the surrounding heights and buoyant flow within permeable faults [1]. Those models were calibrated against available temperature logs by running several forward problems (FP), with a classic "trial and error" method. In the present study, inverse problems (IP) are applied to find alternative parameter distributions that also lead to the observed thermal anomalies. The investigated physical parameters are hydraulic conductivity and thermal conductivity. To solve the IP, the PEST® code [2] is applied via the graphical interface FEPEST® in FEFLOW® [3]. The results show that both hydraulic and thermal conductivity are consistent with the values determined with the trial and error calibrations, which precede this study. However, the IP indicates that the hydraulic conductivity of the Senonian Paleocene aquitard can be 8.54*10-3 m/d, which is three times lower than the originally estimated value in [1]. Moreover, the IP suggests that the hydraulic conductivity in the faults can increase locally up to 0.17 m/d. These highly permeable areas can be interpreted as local damage zones at the faults/units intersections. They can act as lateral pathways in the deep aquifers that allow deep outflow of thermal water. This presentation provides an example about the application of FP and IP to infer a wide range of parameter values that reproduce observed environmental issues. [1] Magri F, Inbar N, Siebert C, Rosenthal E, Guttman J, Möller P (2015) Transient simulations of large-scale hydrogeological processes causing temperature and salinity anomalies in the Tiberias Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 520, 342-355 [2] Doherty J (2010) PEST: Model-Independent Parameter Estimation. user manual 5th Edition. Watermark, Brisbane, Australia [3] Diersch H.-J.G. (2014) FEFLOW Finite Element Modeling of Flow, Mass and Heat Transport in Porous and Fractured Media. Springer- Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 996p

Systematic parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis using a multidimensional PEMFC model coupled with DAKOTA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chao Yang; Luo, Gang; Jiang, Fangming

2010-05-01

Current computational models for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) include a large number of parameters such as boundary conditions, material properties, and numerous parameters used in sub-models for membrane transport, two-phase flow and electrochemistry. In order to successfully use a computational PEMFC model in design and optimization, it is important to identify critical parameters under a wide variety of operating conditions, such as relative humidity, current load, temperature, etc. Moreover, when experimental data is available in the form of polarization curves or local distribution of current and reactant/product species (e.g., O2, H2O concentrations), critical parameters can be estimated inmore » order to enable the model to better fit the data. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are typically performed using manual adjustment of parameters, which is also common in parameter studies. We present work to demonstrate a systematic approach based on using a widely available toolkit developed at Sandia called DAKOTA that supports many kinds of design studies, such as sensitivity analysis as well as optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the present work, we couple a multidimensional PEMFC model (which is being developed, tested and later validated in a joint effort by a team from Penn State Univ. and Sandia National Laboratories) with DAKOTA through the mapping of model parameters to system responses. Using this interface, we demonstrate the efficiency of performing simple parameter studies as well as identifying critical parameters using sensitivity analysis. Finally, we show examples of optimization and parameter estimation using the automated capability in DAKOTA.« less

Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative log-normal cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leövey, Andrés E.; Lux, Thomas

2012-04-01

We study the well-known multiplicative log-normal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and log normally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the nonstationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a formalism, its parameters have been estimated mostly by fitting the numerical approximation of the associated non-Gaussian probability density function to empirical data, cf. Castaing [Physica DPDNPDT0167-278910.1016/0167-2789(90)90035-N 46, 177 (1990)]. More recently, alternative estimators based upon various moments have been proposed by Beck [Physica DPDNPDT0167-278910.1016/j.physd.2004.01.020 193, 195 (2004)] and Kiyono [Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.76.041113 76, 041113 (2007)]. In this paper, we pursue this moment-based approach further and develop a more rigorous generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We show that even under uncertainty about the actual number of cascade steps, our methodology yields very reliable results for the estimated intermittency parameter. Employing the Levinson-Durbin algorithm for best linear forecasts, we also show that estimated parameters can be used for forecasting the evolution of the turbulent flow. We compare forecasting results from the GMM and Kiyono 's procedure via Monte Carlo simulations. We finally test the applicability of our approach by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and foreign exchange markets.

Explore the Impacts of River Flow and Water Quality on Fish Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, W. P.; Chang, F. J.; Lin, C. Y.; Hu, J. H.; Yu, C. J.; Chu, T. J.

2015-12-01

Owing to the limitation of geographical environment in Taiwan, the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall would cause significant impacts on river ecosystems. To pursue sustainable water resources development, integrity and rationality is important to water management planning. The water quality and the flow regimes of rivers are closely related to each other and affect river ecosystems simultaneously. Therefore, this study collects long-term observational heterogeneity data, which includes water quality parameters, stream flow and fish species in the Danshui River of norther Taiwan, and aims to explore the complex impacts of water quality and flow regime on fish communities in order to comprehend the situations of the eco-hydrological system in this river basin. First, this study improves the understanding of the relationship between water quality parameters, flow regime and fish species by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). The Self-organizing feature map (SOM) is an unsupervised learning process used to cluster, analyze and visualize a large number of data. The results of SOM show that nine clusters (3x3) forms the optimum map size based on the local minimum values of both quantization error (QE) and topographic error (TE). Second, the fish diversity indexes are estimated by using the Adapted network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based on key input factors determined by the Gamma Test (GT), which is a useful tool for reducing model dimension and the structure complexity of ANNs. The result reveals that the constructed models can effectively estimate fish diversity indexes and produce good estimation performance based on the 9 clusters identified by the SOM, in which RMSE is 0.18 and CE is 0.84 for the training data set while RMSE is 0.20 and CE is 0.80 for the testing data set.

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

2016-12-13

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources.A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively.Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses.Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

Drag Reduction of an Airfoil Using Deep Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chiyu; Sun, Anzhu; Marcus, Philip

2017-11-01

We reduced the drag of a 2D airfoil by starting with a NACA-0012 airfoil and used deep learning methods. We created a database which consists of simulations of 2D external flow over randomly generated shapes. We then developed a machine learning framework for external flow field inference given input shapes. Past work which utilized machine learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics focused on estimations of specific flow parameters, but this work is novel in the inference of entire flow fields. We further showed that learned flow patterns are transferable to cases that share certain similarities. This study illustrates the prospects of deeper integration of data-based modeling into current CFD simulation frameworks for faster flow inference and more accurate flow modeling.

MeProRisk - a Joint Venture for Minimizing Risk in Geothermal Reservoir Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clauser, C.; Marquart, G.

2009-12-01

Exploration and development of geothermal reservoirs for the generation of electric energy involves high engineering and economic risks due to the need for 3-D geophysical surface surveys and deep boreholes. The MeProRisk project provides a strategy guideline for reducing these risks by combining cross-disciplinary information from different specialists: Scientists from three German universities and two private companies contribute with new methods in seismic modeling and interpretation, numerical reservoir simulation, estimation of petrophysical parameters, and 3-D visualization. The approach chosen in MeProRisk consists in considering prospecting and developing of geothermal reservoirs as an iterative process. A first conceptual model for fluid flow and heat transport simulation can be developed based on limited available initial information on geology and rock properties. In the next step, additional data is incorporated which is based on (a) new seismic interpretation methods designed for delineating fracture systems, (b) statistical studies on large numbers of rock samples for estimating reliable rock parameters, (c) in situ estimates of the hydraulic conductivity tensor. This results in a continuous refinement of the reservoir model where inverse modelling of fluid flow and heat transport allows infering the uncertainty and resolution of the model at each iteration step. This finally yields a calibrated reservoir model which may be used to direct further exploration by optimizing additional borehole locations, estimate the uncertainty of key operational and economic parameters, and optimize the long-term operation of a geothermal resrvoir.

Measuring and modeling the variation in species-specific transpiration in temperate deciduous hardwoods.

PubMed

Bowden, Joseph D; Bauerle, William L

2008-11-01

We investigated which parameters required by the MAESTRA model were most important in predicting leaf-area-based transpiration in 5-year-old trees of five deciduous hardwood species-yoshino cherry (Prunus x yedoensis Matsum.), red maple (Acer rubrum L. 'Autumn Flame'), trident maple (Acer buergeranum Miq.), Japanese flowering cherry (Prunus serrulata Lindl. 'Kwanzan') and London plane-tree (Platanus x acerifolia (Ait.) Willd.). Transpiration estimated from sap flow measured by the heat balance method in branches and trunks was compared with estimates predicted by the three-dimensional transpiration, photosynthesis and absorbed radiation model, MAESTRA. MAESTRA predicted species-specific transpiration from the interactions of leaf-level physiology and spatially explicit micro-scale weather patterns in a mixed deciduous hardwood plantation on a 15-min time step. The monthly differences between modeled mean daily transpiration estimates and measured mean daily sap flow ranged from a 35% underestimation for Acer buergeranum in June to a 25% overestimation for A. rubrum in July. The sensitivity of the modeled transpiration estimates was examined across a 30% error range for seven physiological input parameters. The minimum value of stomatal conductance as incident solar radiation tends to zero was determined to be eight times more influential than all other physiological model input parameters. This work quantified the major factors that influence modeled species-specific transpiration and confirmed the ability to scale leaf-level physiological attributes to whole-crown transpiration on a species-specific basis.

A New Mixing Diagnostic and Gulf Oil Spill Movement

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

could be used with new estimates of the suppression parameter to yield appreciably larger estimates of the hydrogen content in the shallow lunar ...paradigm for mixing in fluid flows with simple time dependence. Its skeletal structure is based on analysis of invariant attracting and repelling...continues to the present day. Model analysis and forecasts are compared to independent (nonassimilated) infrared frontal po- sitions and drifter trajectories

Skin friction and heat transfer correlations for high-speed low-density flow past a flat plate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woronowicz, Michael S.; Baganoff, Donald

1991-01-01

The independent and dependent variables associated with drag and heat transfer to a flat plate at zero incidence in high-speed, rarefied flow are analyzed anew to reflect the importance of kinetic effects occurring near the plate surface on energy and momentum transfer, rather than following arguments normally used to describe continuum, higher density flowfields. A new parameter, the wall Knudsen number Knx,w, based on an estimate of the mean free path length of molecules having just interacted with the surface of the plate, is introduced and used to correlate published drag and heat transfer data. The new parameter is shown to provide better correlation than either the viscous interaction parameter X or the widely-used slip parameter Voo for drag and heat transfer data over a wide range of Mach numbers, Reynolds numbers, and plate-to-freestream stagnation temperature ratios.

Improved estimation of hydraulic conductivity by combining stochastically simulated hydrofacies with geophysical data.

PubMed

Zhu, Lin; Gong, Huili; Chen, Yun; Li, Xiaojuan; Chang, Xiang; Cui, Yijiao

2016-03-01

Hydraulic conductivity is a major parameter affecting the output accuracy of groundwater flow and transport models. The most commonly used semi-empirical formula for estimating conductivity is Kozeny-Carman equation. However, this method alone does not work well with heterogeneous strata. Two important parameters, grain size and porosity, often show spatial variations at different scales. This study proposes a method for estimating conductivity distributions by combining a stochastic hydrofacies model with geophysical methods. The Markov chain model with transition probability matrix was adopted to re-construct structures of hydrofacies for deriving spatial deposit information. The geophysical and hydro-chemical data were used to estimate the porosity distribution through the Archie's law. Results show that the stochastic simulated hydrofacies model reflects the sedimentary features with an average model accuracy of 78% in comparison with borehole log data in the Chaobai alluvial fan. The estimated conductivity is reasonable and of the same order of magnitude of the outcomes of the pumping tests. The conductivity distribution is consistent with the sedimentary distributions. This study provides more reliable spatial distributions of the hydraulic parameters for further numerical modeling.

Physically based model for extracting dual permeability parameters using non-Newtonian fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abou Najm, M. R.; Basset, C.; Stewart, R. D.; Hauswirth, S.

2017-12-01

Dual permeability models are effective for the assessment of flow and transport in structured soils with two dominant structures. The major challenge to those models remains in the ability to determine appropriate and unique parameters through affordable, simple, and non-destructive methods. This study investigates the use of water and a non-Newtonian fluid in saturated flow experiments to derive physically-based parameters required for improved flow predictions using dual permeability models. We assess the ability of these two fluids to accurately estimate the representative pore sizes in dual-domain soils, by determining the effective pore sizes of macropores and micropores. We developed two sub-models that solve for the effective macropore size assuming either cylindrical (e.g., biological pores) or planar (e.g., shrinkage cracks and fissures) pore geometries, with the micropores assumed to be represented by a single effective radius. Furthermore, the model solves for the percent contribution to flow (wi) corresponding to the representative macro and micro pores. A user-friendly solver was developed to numerically solve the system of equations, given that relevant non-Newtonian viscosity models lack forms conducive to analytical integration. The proposed dual-permeability model is a unique attempt to derive physically based parameters capable of measuring dual hydraulic conductivities, and therefore may be useful in reducing parameter uncertainty and improving hydrologic model predictions.

State and parameter estimation of spatiotemporally chaotic systems illustrated by an application to Rayleigh-Bénard convection.

PubMed

Cornick, Matthew; Hunt, Brian; Ott, Edward; Kurtuldu, Huseyin; Schatz, Michael F

2009-03-01

Data assimilation refers to the process of estimating a system's state from a time series of measurements (which may be noisy or incomplete) in conjunction with a model for the system's time evolution. Here we demonstrate the applicability of a recently developed data assimilation method, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter, to nonlinear, high-dimensional, spatiotemporally chaotic flows in Rayleigh-Bénard convection experiments. Using this technique we are able to extract the full temperature and velocity fields from a time series of shadowgraph measurements. In addition, we describe extensions of the algorithm for estimating model parameters. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of our data assimilation technique to a broad class of experimental situations exhibiting spatiotemporal chaos.

Estimating river discharge uncertainty by applying the Rating Curve Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbetta, S.; Melone, F.; Franchini, M.; Moramarco, T.

2012-04-01

The knowledge of the flow discharge at a river site is necessary for planning and management of water resources as well as for monitoring and real-time forecasting purposes when significant flood events occur. In the hydrological practice, the operational discharge measurement in medium and large rivers is mostly based on indirect approaches by converting the observed stage into discharge values using steady-flow rating curves. However, the stage-discharge relationship can be unknown for hydrometric sections where flow velocity measurements, particularly during high floods, are not available. To overcome this issue, a simplified approach named Rating Curve Model (RCM) and proposed by Moramarco et al. (Moramarco, T., Barbetta, S., F. Melone, F. & Singh, V.P., Relating local stage and remote discharge with significant lateral inflow, J. Hydrol. Engng ASCE, 10[1], 58?69, 2005) can be conveniently used. RCM turned out able to assess, with a high level of accuracy, the discharge hydrograph at a river site where only the stage is monitored while the flow is recorded at a different section along the river, even when significant lateral flows occur. The simple structure of the model is depending on three parameters of which two can be considered characteristic of the river reach and one of the wave travel time of floods. Considering that RCM well lends itself to predict the stage-discharge relationship at a river site wherein only stages are recorded, an uncertainty analysis on river discharge estimate is of interest for the hydrological practice definitely. To this aim, the uncertainty characterizing the RCM outcomes is addressed in this work by considering two different procedures based on the Monte Carlo approach and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method, respectively. The statistical distribution of parameters is found and a random re-sampling of parameters is done for assessing the 90% confidence interval (CI) of discharge estimates. In particular, for the latter approach the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is used as likelihood measure. Two equipped river reaches of the Upper-Middle Tiber River basin, central Italy, are investigated as case studies. The results provided by the selected methodologies are discussed and compared showing that all the computed CIs are satisfied in term of percentage of included observed discharges with similar percentages characterizing the bands assessed by both Monte Carlo approach and GLUE procedure.

Effect of random errors in planar PIV data on pressure estimation in vortex dominated flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure, Jeffrey; Yarusevych, Serhiy

2015-11-01

The sensitivity of pressure estimation techniques from Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements to random errors in measured velocity data is investigated using the flow over a circular cylinder as a test case. Direct numerical simulations are performed for ReD = 100, 300 and 1575, spanning laminar, transitional, and turbulent wake regimes, respectively. A range of random errors typical for PIV measurements is applied to synthetic PIV data extracted from numerical results. A parametric study is then performed using a number of common pressure estimation techniques. Optimal temporal and spatial resolutions are derived based on the sensitivity of the estimated pressure fields to the simulated random error in velocity measurements, and the results are compared to an optimization model derived from error propagation theory. It is shown that the reductions in spatial and temporal scales at higher Reynolds numbers leads to notable changes in the optimal pressure evaluation parameters. The effect of smaller scale wake structures is also quantified. The errors in the estimated pressure fields are shown to depend significantly on the pressure estimation technique employed. The results are used to provide recommendations for the use of pressure and force estimation techniques from experimental PIV measurements in vortex dominated laminar and turbulent wake flows.

Magnetohydrodynamic dissipative flow across the slendering stretching sheet with temperature dependent variable viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayachandra Babu, M.; Sandeep, N.; Ali, M. E.; Nuhait, Abdullah O.

The boundary layer flow across a slendering stretching sheet has gotten awesome consideration due to its inexhaustible pragmatic applications in nuclear reactor technology, acoustical components, chemical and manufacturing procedures, for example, polymer extrusion, and machine design. By keeping this in view, we analyzed the two-dimensional MHD flow across a slendering stretching sheet within the sight of variable viscosity and viscous dissipation. The sheet is thought to be convectively warmed. Convective boundary conditions through heat and mass are employed. Similarity transformations used to change over the administering nonlinear partial differential equations as a group of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Runge-Kutta based shooting technique is utilized to solve the converted equations. Numerical estimations of the physical parameters involved in the problem are calculated for the friction factor, local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers. Viscosity variation parameter and chemical reaction parameter shows the opposite impact to each other on the concentration profile. Heat and mass transfer Biot numbers are helpful to enhance the temperature and concentration respectively.

THE NuSTAR X-RAY SPECTRUM OF HERCULES X-1: A RADIATION-DOMINATED RADIATIVE SHOCK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolff, Michael T.; Wood, Kent S.; Becker, Peter A.

2016-11-10

We report on new spectral modeling of the accreting X-ray pulsar Hercules X-1. Our radiation-dominated radiative shock model is an implementation of the analytic work of Becker and Wolff on Comptonized accretion flows onto magnetic neutron stars. We obtain a good fit to the spin-phase-averaged 4–78 keV X-ray spectrum observed by the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array during a main-on phase of the Her X-1 35 day accretion disk precession period. This model allows us to estimate the accretion rate, the Comptonizing temperature of the radiating plasma, the radius of the magnetic polar cap, and the average scattering opacity parameters inmore » the accretion column. This is in contrast to previous phenomenological models that characterized the shape of the X-ray spectrum, but could not determine the physical parameters of the accretion flow. We describe the spectral fitting details and discuss the interpretation of the accretion flow physical parameters.« less

An update of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system transient model, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Pavelko, Michael T.; Hill, Mary C.

2017-01-19

Since the original publication of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) numerical model in 2004, more information on the regional groundwater flow system in the form of new data and interpretations has been compiled. Cooperators such as the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Department of Energy, and Nye County, Nevada, recognized a need to update the existing regional numerical model to maintain its viability as a groundwater management tool for regional stakeholders. The existing DVRFS numerical flow model was converted to MODFLOW-2005, updated with the latest available data, and recalibrated. Five main data sets were revised: (1) recharge from precipitation varying in time and space, (2) pumping data, (3) water-level observations, (4) an updated regional potentiometric map, and (5) a revision to the digital hydrogeologic framework model.The resulting DVRFS version 2.0 (v. 2.0) numerical flow model simulates groundwater flow conditions for the Death Valley region from 1913 to 2003 to correspond to the time frame for the most recently published (2008) water-use data. The DVRFS v 2.0 model was calibrated by using the Tikhonov regularization functionality in the parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty software PEST. In order to assess the accuracy of the numerical flow model in simulating regional flow, the fit of simulated to target values (consisting of hydraulic heads and flows, including evapotranspiration and spring discharge, flow across the model boundary, and interbasin flow; the regional water budget; values of parameter estimates; and sensitivities) was evaluated. This evaluation showed that DVRFS v. 2.0 simulates conditions similar to DVRFS v. 1.0. Comparisons of the target values with simulated values also indicate that they match reasonably well and in some cases (boundary flows and discharge) significantly better than in DVRFS v. 1.0.

Statistical Estimation of Heterogeneities: A New Frontier in Well Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuman, S. P.; Guadagnini, A.; Illman, W. A.; Riva, M.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2001-12-01

Well-testing methods have traditionally relied on analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations in relatively simple domains, consisting of one or at most a few units having uniform hydraulic properties. Recently, attention has been shifting toward methods and solutions that would allow one to characterize subsurface heterogeneities in greater detail. On one hand, geostatistical inverse methods are being used to assess the spatial variability of parameters, such as permeability and porosity, on the basis of multiple cross-hole pressure interference tests. On the other hand, analytical solutions are being developed to describe the mean and variance (first and second statistical moments) of flow to a well in a randomly heterogeneous medium. Geostatistical inverse interpretation of cross-hole tests yields a smoothed but detailed "tomographic" image of how parameters actually vary in three-dimensional space, together with corresponding measures of estimation uncertainty. Moment solutions may soon allow one to interpret well tests in terms of statistical parameters such as the mean and variance of log permeability, its spatial autocorrelation and statistical anisotropy. The idea of geostatistical cross-hole tomography is illustrated through pneumatic injection tests conducted in unsaturated fractured tuff at the Apache Leap Research Site near Superior, Arizona. The idea of using moment equations to interpret well-tests statistically is illustrated through a recently developed three-dimensional solution for steady state flow to a well in a bounded, randomly heterogeneous, statistically anisotropic aquifer.

Gaussian copula as a likelihood function for environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wani, O.; Espadas, G.; Cecinati, F.; Rieckermann, J.

2017-12-01

Parameter estimation of environmental models always comes with uncertainty. To formally quantify this parametric uncertainty, a likelihood function needs to be formulated, which is defined as the probability of observations given fixed values of the parameter set. A likelihood function allows us to infer parameter values from observations using Bayes' theorem. The challenge is to formulate a likelihood function that reliably describes the error generating processes which lead to the observed monitoring data, such as rainfall and runoff. If the likelihood function is not representative of the error statistics, the parameter inference will give biased parameter values. Several uncertainty estimation methods that are currently being used employ Gaussian processes as a likelihood function, because of their favourable analytical properties. Box-Cox transformation is suggested to deal with non-symmetric and heteroscedastic errors e.g. for flow data which are typically more uncertain in high flows than in periods with low flows. Problem with transformations is that the results are conditional on hyper-parameters, for which it is difficult to formulate the analyst's belief a priori. In an attempt to address this problem, in this research work we suggest learning the nature of the error distribution from the errors made by the model in the "past" forecasts. We use a Gaussian copula to generate semiparametric error distributions . 1) We show that this copula can be then used as a likelihood function to infer parameters, breaking away from the practice of using multivariate normal distributions. Based on the results from a didactical example of predicting rainfall runoff, 2) we demonstrate that the copula captures the predictive uncertainty of the model. 3) Finally, we find that the properties of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of errors are captured well by the copula, eliminating the need to use transforms. In summary, our findings suggest that copulas are an interesting departure from the usage of fully parametric distributions as likelihood functions - and they could help us to better capture the statistical properties of errors and make more reliable predictions.

Can the discharge of a hyperconcentrated flow be estimated from paleoflood evidence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodoque, Jose M.; Eguibar, Miguel A.; DíEz-Herrero, AndréS.; GutiéRrez-PéRez, Ignacio; RuíZ-Villanueva, Virginia

2011-12-01

Many flood events involving water and sediments have been characterized using classic hydraulics principles, assuming the existence of critical flow and many other simplifications. In this paper, hyperconcentrated flow discharge was evaluated by using paleoflood reconstructions (based on paleostage indicators [PSI]) combined with a detailed hydraulic analysis of the critical flow assumption. The exact location where this condition occurred was established by iteratively determining the corresponding cross section, so that specific energy is at a minimum. In addition, all of the factors and parameters involved in the process were assessed, especially those related to the momentum equation, existing shear stresses in the wetted perimeter, and nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic pressure distributions. The superelevation of the hyperconcentrated flow, due to the flow elevation curvature, was also estimated and calibrated with the PSI. The estimated peak discharge was established once the iterative process was unable to improve the fit between the simulated depth and the depth observed from the PSI. The methodological approach proposed here can be applied to other higher-gradient mountainous torrents with a similar geomorphic configuration to the one studied in this paper. Likewise, results have been derived with fewer uncertainties than those obtained from standard hydraulic approaches, whose simplifying assumptions have not been considered.

Debris-flow runout predictions based on the average channel slope (ACS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prochaska, A.B.; Santi, P.M.; Higgins, J.D.; Cannon, S.H.

2008-01-01

Prediction of the runout distance of a debris flow is an important element in the delineation of potentially hazardous areas on alluvial fans and for the siting of mitigation structures. Existing runout estimation methods rely on input parameters that are often difficult to estimate, including volume, velocity, and frictional factors. In order to provide a simple method for preliminary estimates of debris-flow runout distances, we developed a model that provides runout predictions based on the average channel slope (ACS model) for non-volcanic debris flows that emanate from confined channels and deposit on well-defined alluvial fans. This model was developed from 20 debris-flow events in the western United States and British Columbia. Based on a runout estimation method developed for snow avalanches, this model predicts debris-flow runout as an angle of reach from a fixed point in the drainage channel to the end of the runout zone. The best fixed point was found to be the mid-point elevation of the drainage channel, measured from the apex of the alluvial fan to the top of the drainage basin. Predicted runout lengths were more consistent than those obtained from existing angle-of-reach estimation methods. Results of the model compared well with those of laboratory flume tests performed using the same range of channel slopes. The robustness of this model was tested by applying it to three debris-flow events not used in its development: predicted runout ranged from 82 to 131% of the actual runout for these three events. Prediction interval multipliers were also developed so that the user may calculate predicted runout within specified confidence limits. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using remote sensing and GIS techniques to estimate discharge and recharge. fluxes for the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Keith, Turner A.

1996-01-01

The recharge and discharge components of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system were defined by remote sensing and GIS techniques that integrated disparate data types to develop a spatially complex representation of near-surface hydrological processes. Image classification methods were applied to multispectral satellite data to produce a vegetation map. This map provided a basis for subsequent evapotranspiration and infiltration estimations. The vegetation map was combined with ancillary data in a GIS to delineate different types of wetlands, phreatophytes and wet playa areas. Existing evapotranspiration-rate estimates were then used to calculate discharge volumes for these areas. A previously used empirical method of groundwater recharge estimation was modified by GIS methods to incorporate data describing soil-moisture conditions, and a recharge potential map was produced. These discharge and recharge maps were readily converted to data arrays for numerical modelling codes. Inverse parameter estimation techniques also used these data to evaluate the reliability and sensitivity of estimated values.

Probabilistic forecasts of debris-flow hazard at the regional scale with a combination of models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, Jean-Philippe; Remaître, Alexandre

2015-04-01

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes in the French Alps, where rugged and steep slopes mantled by various slope deposits offer a great potential for triggering hazardous events. A quantitative assessment of debris-flow hazard requires the estimation, in a probabilistic framework, of the spatial probability of occurrence of source areas, the spatial probability of runout areas, the temporal frequency of events, and their intensity. The main objective of this research is to propose a pipeline for the estimation of these quantities at the region scale using a chain of debris-flow models. The work uses the experimental site of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), where 26 active torrents have produced more than 150 debris-flow events since 1850 to develop and validate the methodology. First, a susceptibility assessment is performed to identify the debris-flow prone source areas. The most frequently used approach is the combination of environmental factors with GIS procedures and statistical techniques, integrating or not, detailed event inventories. Based on a 5m-DEM and derivatives, and information on slope lithology, engineering soils and landcover, the possible source areas are identified with a statistical logistic regression model. The performance of the statistical model is evaluated with the observed distribution of debris-flow events recorded after 1850 in the study area. The source areas in the three most active torrents (Riou-Bourdoux, Faucon, Sanières) are well identified by the model. Results are less convincing for three other active torrents (Bourget, La Valette and Riou-Chanal); this could be related to the type of debris-flow triggering mechanism as the model seems to better spot the open slope debris-flow source areas (e.g. scree slopes), but appears to be less efficient for the identification of landslide-induced debris flows. Second, a susceptibility assessment is performed to estimate the possible runout distance with a process-based model. The MassMov-2D code is a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using shallow water approximation. The run-out simulations are performed for the most active torrents. The performance of the model has been evaluated by comparing modelling results with the observed spreading areas of several recent debris flows. Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the model parameters. Third, hazard is estimated on the basis of scenarios computed in a probabilistic way, for volumes in the range 20'000 to 350'000 m3, and for several combinations of rheological parameters. In most cases, the simulations indicate that the debris flows cause significant overflowing on the alluvial fans for volumes exceeding 100'000 m3 (height of deposits > 2 m, velocities > 5 m.s-1). Probabilities of debris flow runout and debris flow intensities are then computed for each terrain units.

Estimation of Transport and Kinetic Parameters of Vanadium Redox Batteries Using Static Cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Seong Beom; Pratt, III, Harry D.; Anderson, Travis M.

Mathematical models of Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs) can be used to analyze cell performance, optimize battery operation, and control the energy storage system efficiently. Among many other models, physics-based electrochemical models are capable of predicting internal states of the battery, such as temperature, state-of-charge, and state-of-health. In the models, estimating parameters is an important step that can study, analyze, and validate the models using experimental data. A common practice is to determine these parameters either through conducting experiments or based on the information available in the literature. However, it is not easy to investigate all proper parameters for the modelsmore » through this way, and there are occasions when important information, such as diffusion coefficients and rate constants of ions, has not been studied. Also, the parameters needed for modeling charge-discharge are not always available. In this paper, an efficient way to estimate parameters of physics-based redox battery models will be proposed. Furthermore, this paper also demonstrates that the proposed approach can study and analyze aspects of capacity loss/fade, kinetics, and transport phenomena of the RFB system.« less

Estimation of Transport and Kinetic Parameters of Vanadium Redox Batteries Using Static Cells

DOE PAGES

Lee, Seong Beom; Pratt, III, Harry D.; Anderson, Travis M.; ...

2018-03-27

Mathematical models of Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs) can be used to analyze cell performance, optimize battery operation, and control the energy storage system efficiently. Among many other models, physics-based electrochemical models are capable of predicting internal states of the battery, such as temperature, state-of-charge, and state-of-health. In the models, estimating parameters is an important step that can study, analyze, and validate the models using experimental data. A common practice is to determine these parameters either through conducting experiments or based on the information available in the literature. However, it is not easy to investigate all proper parameters for the modelsmore » through this way, and there are occasions when important information, such as diffusion coefficients and rate constants of ions, has not been studied. Also, the parameters needed for modeling charge-discharge are not always available. In this paper, an efficient way to estimate parameters of physics-based redox battery models will be proposed. Furthermore, this paper also demonstrates that the proposed approach can study and analyze aspects of capacity loss/fade, kinetics, and transport phenomena of the RFB system.« less

[Atmospheric parameter estimation for LAMOST/GUOSHOUJING spectra].

PubMed

Lu, Yu; Li, Xiang-Ru; Yang, Tan

2014-11-01

It is a key task to estimate the atmospheric parameters from the observed stellar spectra in exploring the nature of stars and universe. With our Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopy Telescope (LAMOST) which begun its formal Sky Survey in September 2012, we are obtaining a mass of stellar spectra in an unprecedented speed. It has brought a new opportunity and a challenge for the research of galaxies. Due to the complexity of the observing system, the noise in the spectrum is relatively large. At the same time, the preprocessing procedures of spectrum are also not ideal, such as the wavelength calibration and the flow calibration. Therefore, there is a slight distortion of the spectrum. They result in the high difficulty of estimating the atmospheric parameters for the measured stellar spectra. It is one of the important issues to estimate the atmospheric parameters for the massive stellar spectra of LAMOST. The key of this study is how to eliminate noise and improve the accuracy and robustness of estimating the atmospheric parameters for the measured stellar spectra. We propose a regression model for estimating the atmospheric parameters of LAMOST stellar(SVM(lasso)). The basic idea of this model is: First, we use the Haar wavelet to filter spectrum, suppress the adverse effects of the spectral noise and retain the most discrimination information of spectrum. Secondly, We use the lasso algorithm for feature selection and extract the features of strongly correlating with the atmospheric parameters. Finally, the features are input to the support vector regression model for estimating the parameters. Because the model has better tolerance to the slight distortion and the noise of the spectrum, the accuracy of the measurement is improved. To evaluate the feasibility of the above scheme, we conduct experiments extensively on the 33 963 pilot surveys spectrums by LAMOST. The accuracy of three atmospheric parameters is log Teff: 0.006 8 dex, log g: 0.155 1 dex, [Fe/H]: 0.104 0 dex.

Quantification of groundwater infiltration and surface water inflows in urban sewer networks based on a multiple model approach.

PubMed

Karpf, Christian; Krebs, Peter

2011-05-01

The management of sewer systems requires information about discharge and variability of typical wastewater sources in urban catchments. Especially the infiltration of groundwater and the inflow of surface water (I/I) are important for making decisions about the rehabilitation and operation of sewer networks. This paper presents a methodology to identify I/I and estimate its quantity. For each flow fraction in sewer networks, an individual model approach is formulated whose parameters are optimised by the method of least squares. This method was applied to estimate the contributions to the wastewater flow in the sewer system of the City of Dresden (Germany), where data availability is good. Absolute flows of I/I and their temporal variations are estimated. Further information on the characteristics of infiltration is gained by clustering and grouping sewer pipes according to the attributes construction year and groundwater influence and relating these resulting classes to infiltration behaviour. Further, it is shown that condition classes based on CCTV-data can be used to estimate the infiltration potential of sewer pipes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison between uroflowmetry and sonouroflowmetry in recording of urinary flow in healthy men.

PubMed

Krhut, Jan; Gärtner, Marcel; Sýkora, Radek; Hurtík, Petr; Burda, Michal; Luňáček, Libor; Zvarová, Katarína; Zvara, Peter

2015-08-01

To evaluate the accuracy of sonouroflowmetry in recording urinary flow parameters and voided volume. A total of 25 healthy male volunteers (age 18-63 years) were included in the study. All participants were asked to carry out uroflowmetry synchronous with recording of the sound generated by the urine stream hitting the water level in the urine collection receptacle, using a dedicated cell phone. From 188 recordings, 34 were excluded, because of voided volume <150 mL or technical problems during recording. Sonouroflowmetry recording was visualized in a form of a trace, representing sound intensity over time. Subsequently, the matching datasets of uroflowmetry and sonouroflowmetry were compared with respect to flow time, voided volume, maximum flow rate and average flow rate. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to compare parameters recorded by uroflowmetry with those calculated based on sonouroflowmetry recordings. The flow pattern recorded by sonouroflowmetry showed a good correlation with the uroflowmetry trace. A strong correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.87) was documented between uroflowmetry-recorded flow time and duration of the sound signal recorded with sonouroflowmetry. A moderate correlation was observed in voided volume (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.68) and average flow rate (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.57). A weak correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.38) between maximum flow rate recorded using uroflowmetry and sonouroflowmetry-recorded peak sound intensity was documented. The present study shows that the basic concept utilizing sound analysis for estimation of urinary flow parameters and voided volume is valid. However, further development of this technology and standardization of recording algorithm are required. © 2015 The Japanese Urological Association.

Potential for noninvasive assessment of lung inhomogeneity using highly precise, highly time-resolved measurements of gas exchange

PubMed Central

Mountain, James E.; Santer, Peter; O’Neill, David P.; Smith, Nicholas M. J.; Ciaffoni, Luca; Couper, John H.; Ritchie, Grant A. D.; Hancock, Gus; Whiteley, Jonathan P.

2018-01-01

Inhomogeneity in the lung impairs gas exchange and can be an early marker of lung disease. We hypothesized that highly precise measurements of gas exchange contain sufficient information to quantify many aspects of the inhomogeneity noninvasively. Our aim was to explore whether one parameterization of lung inhomogeneity could both fit such data and provide reliable parameter estimates. A mathematical model of gas exchange in an inhomogeneous lung was developed, containing inhomogeneity parameters for compliance, vascular conductance, and dead space, all relative to lung volume. Inputs were respiratory flow, cardiac output, and the inspiratory and pulmonary arterial gas compositions. Outputs were expiratory and pulmonary venous gas compositions. All values were specified every 10 ms. Some parameters were set to physiologically plausible values. To estimate the remaining unknown parameters and inputs, the model was embedded within a nonlinear estimation routine to minimize the deviations between model and data for CO2, O2, and N2 flows during expiration. Three groups, each of six individuals, were studied: young (20–30 yr); old (70–80 yr); and patients with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Each participant undertook a 15-min measurement protocol six times. For all parameters reflecting inhomogeneity, highly significant differences were found between the three participant groups (P < 0.001, ANOVA). Intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.96, 0.99, and 0.94 for the parameters reflecting inhomogeneity in deadspace, compliance, and vascular conductance, respectively. We conclude that, for the particular participants selected, highly repeatable estimates for parameters reflecting inhomogeneity could be obtained from noninvasive measurements of respiratory gas exchange. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This study describes a new method, based on highly precise measures of gas exchange, that quantifies three distributions that are intrinsic to the lung. These distributions represent three fundamentally different types of inhomogeneity that together give rise to ventilation-perfusion mismatch and result in impaired gas exchange. The measurement technique has potentially broad clinical applicability because it is simple for both patient and operator, it does not involve ionizing radiation, and it is completely noninvasive. PMID:29074714

Intermediate Scale Experimental Design to Validate a Subsurface Inverse Theory Applicable to Date-sparse Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, J.; Trautz, A.; Zhang, Y.; Illangasekera, T.

2017-12-01

Subsurface flow and transport characterization under data-sparse condition is addressed by a new and computationally efficient inverse theory that simultaneously estimates parameters, state variables, and boundary conditions. Uncertainty in static data can be accounted for while parameter structure can be complex due to process uncertainty. The approach has been successfully extended to inverting transient and unsaturated flows as well as contaminant source identification under unknown initial and boundary conditions. In one example, by sampling numerical experiments simulating two-dimensional steady-state flow in which tracer migrates, a sequential inversion scheme first estimates the flow field and permeability structure before the evolution of tracer plume and dispersivities are jointly estimated. Compared to traditional inversion techniques, the theory does not use forward simulations to assess model-data misfits, thus the knowledge of the difficult-to-determine site boundary condition is not required. To test the general applicability of the theory, data generated during high-precision intermediate-scale experiments (i.e., a scale intermediary to the field and column scales) in large synthetic aquifers can be used. The design of such experiments is not trivial as laboratory conditions have to be selected to mimic natural systems in order to provide useful data, thus requiring a variety of sensors and data collection strategies. This paper presents the design of such an experiment in a synthetic, multi-layered aquifer with dimensions of 242.7 x 119.3 x 7.7 cm3. Different experimental scenarios that will generate data to validate the theory are presented.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shantaram, S. Pai; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Salivary protein concentration, flow rate, buffer capacity and pH estimation: A comparative study among young and elderly subjects, both normal and with gingivitis and periodontitis.

PubMed

Shaila, Mulki; Pai, G Prakash; Shetty, Pushparaj

2013-01-01

To evaluate the salivary protein concentration in gingivitis and periodontitis patients and compare the parameters like salivary total protein, salivary albumin, salivary flow rate, pH, buffer capacity and flow rate in both young and elderly patients with simple methods. One hundred and twenty subjects were grouped based on their age as young and elderly. Each group was subgrouped (20 subjects) as controls, gingivitis and periodontitis. Unstimulated whole saliva was collected from patients and flow rate was noted down during collection of the sample. Salivary protein estimation was done using the Biuret method and salivary albumin was assessed using the Bromocresol green method. pH was estimated with a pHmeter and buffering capacity was analyzed with the titration method. Student's t-test, Fisher's test (ANOVA) and Tukey HSD (ANOVA) tests were used for statistical analysis. A very highly significant rise in the salivary total protein and albumin concentration was noted in gingivitis and periodontitis subjects of both young and elderly. An overall decrease in salivary flow rate was observed among the elderly, and also the salivary flow rate of women was significantly lower than that of men. Significant associations between salivary total protein and albumin in gingivitis and periodontitis were found with simple biochemical tests. A decrease in salivary flow rate among elderly and among women was noted.

Conceptual definition of porosity function for coarse granular porous media with fixed texture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shokri, Morteza

2018-06-01

Porous media's porosity value is commonly taken as a constant for a given granular texture free from any type of imposed loads. Although such definition holds for those media at hydrostatic equilibrium, it might not be hydrodynamically true for media subjected to the flow of fluids. This article casts light on an alternative vision describing porosity as a function of fluid velocity, though the media's solid skeleton does not undergo any changes and remain essentially intact. Carefully planned laboratory experiments support such as hypothesis and may help reducing reported disagreements between observed and actual behaviors of nonlinear flow regimes. Findings indicate that the so-called Stephenson relationship that enables estimating actual flow velocity is a case that holds true only for the Darcian conditions. In order to investigate the relationship, an accurate permeability should be measured. An alternative relationship, therefore, has been proposed to estimate actual pore flow velocity. On the other hand, with introducing the novel concept of effective porosity, that should be determined not only based on geotechnical parameters, but also it has to be regarded as a function of the flow regime. Such a porosity may be affected by the flow regime through variations in the effective pore volume and effective shape factor. In a numerical justification of findings, it is shown that unsatisfactory results, obtained from nonlinear mathematical models of unsteady flow, may be due to unreliable porosity estimates.

A Semi-Analytical Method for Rapid Estimation of Near-Well Saturation, Temperature, Pressure and Stress in Non-Isothermal CO2 Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaForce, T.; Ennis-King, J.; Paterson, L.

2015-12-01

Reservoir cooling near the wellbore is expected when fluids are injected into a reservoir or aquifer in CO2 storage, enhanced oil or gas recovery, enhanced geothermal systems, and water injection for disposal. Ignoring thermal effects near the well can lead to under-prediction of changes in reservoir pressure and stress due to competition between increased pressure and contraction of the rock in the cooled near-well region. In this work a previously developed semi-analytical model for immiscible, nonisothermal fluid injection is generalised to include partitioning of components between two phases. Advection-dominated radial flow is assumed so that the coupled two-phase flow and thermal conservation laws can be solved analytically. The temperature and saturation profiles are used to find the increase in reservoir pressure, tangential, and radial stress near the wellbore in a semi-analytical, forward-coupled model. Saturation, temperature, pressure, and stress profiles are found for parameters representative of several CO2 storage demonstration projects around the world. General results on maximum injection rates vs depth for common reservoir parameters are also presented. Prior to drilling an injection well there is often little information about the properties that will determine the injection rate that can be achieved without exceeding fracture pressure, yet injection rate and pressure are key parameters in well design and placement decisions. Analytical solutions to simplified models such as these can quickly provide order of magnitude estimates for flow and stress near the well based on a range of likely parameters.

A Method for Estimating Zero-Flow Pressure and Intracranial Pressure

PubMed Central

Caren, Marzban; Paul, Raymond Illian; David, Morison; Anne, Moore; Michel, Kliot; Marek, Czosnyka; Pierre, Mourad

2012-01-01

Background It has been hypothesized that critical closing pressure of cerebral circulation, or zero-flow pressure (ZFP), can estimate intracranial pressure (ICP). One ZFP estimation method employs extrapolation of arterial blood pressure versus blood-flow velocity. The aim of this study is to improve ICP predictions. Methods Two revisions are considered: 1) The linear model employed for extrapolation is extended to a nonlinear equation, and 2) the parameters of the model are estimated by an alternative criterion (not least-squares). The method is applied to data on transcranial Doppler measurements of blood-flow velocity, arterial blood pressure, and ICP, from 104 patients suffering from closed traumatic brain injury, sampled across the United States and England. Results The revisions lead to qualitative (e.g., precluding negative ICP) and quantitative improvements in ICP prediction. In going from the original to the revised method, the ±2 standard deviation of error is reduced from 33 to 24 mm Hg; the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) is reduced from 11 to 8.2 mm Hg. The distribution of RMSE is tighter as well; for the revised method the 25th and 75th percentiles are 4.1 and 13.7 mm Hg, respectively, as compared to 5.1 and 18.8 mm Hg for the original method. Conclusions Proposed alterations to a procedure for estimating ZFP lead to more accurate and more precise estimates of ICP, thereby offering improved means of estimating it noninvasively. The quality of the estimates is inadequate for many applications, but further work is proposed which may lead to clinically useful results. PMID:22824923

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

2017-12-01

Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons". Managers may feel more confident to utilize such models to predict flows in fully ungauged areas.

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, C.R.; Kernodle, J.M.; McAda, D.P.

1998-01-01

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

Inverse Theory for Petroleum Reservoir Characterization and History Matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Dean S.; Reynolds, Albert C.; Liu, Ning

This book is a guide to the use of inverse theory for estimation and conditional simulation of flow and transport parameters in porous media. It describes the theory and practice of estimating properties of underground petroleum reservoirs from measurements of flow in wells, and it explains how to characterize the uncertainty in such estimates. Early chapters present the reader with the necessary background in inverse theory, probability and spatial statistics. The book demonstrates how to calculate sensitivity coefficients and the linearized relationship between models and production data. It also shows how to develop iterative methods for generating estimates and conditional realizations. The text is written for researchers and graduates in petroleum engineering and groundwater hydrology and can be used as a textbook for advanced courses on inverse theory in petroleum engineering. It includes many worked examples to demonstrate the methodologies and a selection of exercises.

Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

PubMed Central

Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

2017-01-01

Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

Bayesian inference of ice thickness from remote-sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werder, Mauro A.; Huss, Matthias

2017-04-01

Knowledge about ice thickness and volume is indispensable for studying ice dynamics, future sea-level rise due to glacier melt or their contribution to regional hydrology. Accurate measurements of glacier thickness require on-site work, usually employing radar techniques. However, these field measurements are time consuming, expensive and sometime downright impossible. Conversely, measurements of the ice surface, namely elevation and flow velocity, are becoming available world-wide through remote sensing. The model of Farinotti et al. (2009) calculates ice thicknesses based on a mass conservation approach paired with shallow ice physics using estimates of the surface mass balance. The presented work applies a Bayesian inference approach to estimate the parameters of a modified version of this forward model by fitting it to both measurements of surface flow speed and of ice thickness. The inverse model outputs ice thickness as well the distribution of the error. We fit the model to ten test glaciers and ice caps and quantify the improvements of thickness estimates through the usage of surface ice flow measurements.

Use of an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor for parameter estimation in modelling of anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Batstone, D J; Torrijos, M; Ruiz, C; Schmidt, J E

2004-01-01

The model structure in anaerobic digestion has been clarified following publication of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). However, parameter values are not well known, and uncertainty and variability in the parameter values given is almost unknown. Additionally, platforms for identification of parameters, namely continuous-flow laboratory digesters, and batch tests suffer from disadvantages such as long run times, and difficulty in defining initial conditions, respectively. Anaerobic sequencing batch reactors (ASBRs) are sequenced into fill-react-settle-decant phases, and offer promising possibilities for estimation of parameters, as they are by nature, dynamic in behaviour, and allow repeatable behaviour to establish initial conditions, and evaluate parameters. In this study, we estimated parameters describing winery wastewater (most COD as ethanol) degradation using data from sequencing operation, and validated these parameters using unsequenced pulses of ethanol and acetate. The model used was the ADM1, with an extension for ethanol degradation. Parameter confidence spaces were found by non-linear, correlated analysis of the two main Monod parameters; maximum uptake rate (k(m)), and half saturation concentration (K(S)). These parameters could be estimated together using only the measured acetate concentration (20 points per cycle). From interpolating the single cycle acetate data to multiple cycles, we estimate that a practical "optimal" identifiability could be achieved after two cycles for the acetate parameters, and three cycles for the ethanol parameters. The parameters found performed well in the short term, and represented the pulses of acetate and ethanol (within 4 days of the winery-fed cycles) very well. The main discrepancy was poor prediction of pH dynamics, which could be due to an unidentified buffer with an overall influence the same as a weak base (possibly CaCO3). Based on this work, ASBR systems are effective for parameter estimation, especially for comparative wastewater characterisation. The main disadvantages are heavy computational requirements for multiple cycles, and difficulty in establishing the correct biomass concentration in the reactor, though the last is also a disadvantage for continuous fixed film reactors, and especially, batch tests.

A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, S. E.; Strupczewski, W. G.; Bogdanowicz, E.

2017-08-01

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (FFA) is applied to statistical analysis of seasonal flow maxima from Polish and Norwegian catchments. Three non-stationary estimation methods, namely, maximum likelihood (ML), two stage (WLS/TS) and GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape parameters), are compared in the context of capturing the effect of non-stationarity on the estimation of time-dependent moments and design quantiles. The use of a multimodel approach is recommended, to reduce the errors due to the model misspecification in the magnitude of quantiles. The results of calculations based on observed seasonal daily flow maxima and computer simulation experiments showed that GAMLSS gave the best results with respect to the relative bias and root mean square error in the estimates of trend in the standard deviation and the constant shape parameter, while WLS/TS provided better accuracy in the estimates of trend in the mean value. Within three compared methods the WLS/TS method is recommended to deal with non-stationarity in short time series. Some practical aspects of the GAMLSS package application are also presented. The detailed discussion of general issues related to consequences of climate change in the FFA is presented in the second part of the article entitled "Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package in non-stationary flood frequency analysis".

Allometric scaling for predicting human clearance of bisphenol A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collet, Séverine H., E-mail: s.collet@envt.fr; Picard-Hagen, Nicole, E-mail: n.hagen-picard@envt.fr; Lacroix, Marlène Z., E-mail: m.lacroix@envt.fr

The investigation of interspecies differences in bisphenol A (BPA) pharmacokinetics (PK) may be useful for translating findings from animal studies to humans, identifying major processes involved in BPA clearance mechanisms, and predicting BPA PK parameters in man. For the first time, a large range of species in terms of body weight, from 0.02 kg (mice) to 495 kg (horses) was used to predict BPA clearance in man by an allometric approach. BPA PK was evaluated after intravenous administration of BPA in horses, sheep, pigs, dogs, rats and mice. A non-compartmental analysis was used to estimate plasma clearance and steady statemore » volume of distribution and predict BPA PK parameters in humans from allometric scaling. In all the species investigated, BPA plasma clearance was high and of the same order of magnitude as their respective hepatic blood flow. By an allometric scaling, the human clearance was estimated to be 1.79 L/min (equivalent to 25.6 mL/kg.min) with a 95% prediction interval of 0.36 to 8.83 L/min. Our results support the hypothesis that there are highly efficient and hepatic mechanisms of BPA clearance in man. - Highlights: • Allometric scaling was used to predict BPA pharmacokinetic parameters in humans. • In all species, BPA plasma clearance approached hepatic blood flow. • Human BPA clearance was estimated to be 1.79 L/min.« less

Assessment of key transport parameters in a karst system under different dynamic conditions based on tracer experiments: the Jeita karst system, Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, Joanna; Margane, Armin; Geyer, Tobias; Sauter, Martin

2018-03-01

Artificial tracer experiments were conducted in the mature karst system of Jeita (Lebanon) under various flow conditions using surface and subsurface tracer injection points, to determine the variation of transport parameters (attenuation of peak concentration, velocity, transit times, dispersivity, and proportion of immobile and mobile regions) along fast and slow flow pathways. Tracer breakthrough curves (TBCs) observed at the karst spring were interpreted using a two-region nonequilibrium approach (2RNEM) to account for the skewness in the TBCs' long tailings. The conduit test results revealed a discharge threshold in the system dynamics, beyond which the transport parameters vary significantly. The polynomial relationship between transport velocity and discharge can be related to the variation of the conduit's cross-sectional area. Longitudinal dispersivity in the conduit system is not a constant value (α = 7-10 m) and decreases linearly with increasing flow rate because of dilution effects. Additionally, the proportion of immobile regions (arising from conduit irregularities) increases with decreasing water level in the conduit system. From tracer tests with injection at the surface, longitudinal dispersivity values are found to be large (8-27 m). The tailing observed in some TBCs is generated in the unsaturated zone before the tracer actually arrives at the major subsurface conduit draining the system. This work allows the estimation and prediction of the key transport parameters in karst aquifers. It shows that these parameters vary with time and flow dynamics, and they reflect the geometry of the flow pathway and the origin of infiltrating (potentially contaminated) recharge.

Estimation of settling velocity of sediment particles in estuarine and coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasiha, Hussain J.; Shanmugam, Palanisamy

2018-04-01

A model for estimating the settling velocity of sediment particles (spherical and non-spherical) in estuarine and coastal waters is developed and validated using experimental data. The model combines the physical, optical and hydrodynamic properties of the particles and medium to estimate the sediment settling velocity. The well-known Stokes law is broadened to account for the influencing factors of settling velocity such as particle size, shape and density. To derive the model parameters, laboratory experiments were conducted using natural flaky seashells, spherical beach sands and ball-milled seashell powders. Spectral light backscattering measurements of settling particles in a water tank were made showing a distinct optical feature with a peak shifting from 470-490 nm to 500-520 nm for particle populations from spherical to flaky grains. This significant optical feature was used as a proxy to make a shape determination in the present model. Other parameters experimentally determined included specific gravity (ΔSG) , Corey shape factor (CSF) , median grain diameter (D50) , drag coefficient (Cd) and Reynolds number (Re) . The CSF values considered ranged from 0.2 for flaky to 1.0 for perfectly spherical grains and Reynolds numbers from 2.0 to 105 for the laminar to turbulent flow regimes. The specific gravity of submerged particles was optically derived and used along with these parameters to estimate the sediment settling velocity. Comparison with the experiment data showed that the present model estimated settling velocities of spherical and non-spherical particles that were closely consistent with the measured values. Findings revealed that for a given D50, the flaky particles caused a greater decrease in settling velocity than the spherical particles which suggests that the particle shape factor has a profound role in influencing the sediment settling velocity and drag coefficients, especially in transitional and turbulent flow regimes. The present model can be easily adopted for various scientific and operational applications since the required parameters are readily measurable with the commercially available instrumentations.

Measurement of acoustic velocity components in a turbulent flow using LDV and high-repetition rate PIV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Léon, Olivier; Piot, Estelle; Sebbane, Delphine; Simon, Frank

2017-06-01

The present study provides theoretical details and experimental validation results to the approach proposed by Minotti et al. (Aerosp Sci Technol 12(5):398-407, 2008) for measuring amplitudes and phases of acoustic velocity components (AVC) that are waveform parameters of each component of velocity induced by an acoustic wave, in fully turbulent duct flows carrying multi-tone acoustic waves. Theoretical results support that the turbulence rejection method proposed, based on the estimation of cross power spectra between velocity measurements and a reference signal such as a wall pressure measurement, provides asymptotically efficient estimators with respect to the number of samples. Furthermore, it is shown that the estimator uncertainties can be simply estimated, accounting for the characteristics of the measured flow turbulence spectra. Two laser-based measurement campaigns were conducted in order to validate the acoustic velocity estimation approach and the uncertainty estimates derived. While in previous studies estimates were obtained using laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV), it is demonstrated that high-repetition rate particle image velocimetry (PIV) can also be successfully employed. The two measurement techniques provide very similar acoustic velocity amplitude and phase estimates for the cases investigated, that are of practical interest for acoustic liner studies. In a broader sense, this approach may be beneficial for non-intrusive sound emission studies in wind tunnel testings.

Hydrological parameter estimations from a conservative tracer test with variable-density effects at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafflon, B.; Barrash, W.; Cardiff, M.; Johnson, T. C.

2011-12-01

Reliable predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport require an estimation of the detailed distribution of the parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity) controlling these processes. However, such parameters are difficult to estimate because of the inaccessibility and complexity of the subsurface. In this regard, developments in parameter estimation techniques and investigations of field experiments are still challenging and necessary to improve our understanding and the prediction of hydrological processes. Here we analyze a conservative tracer test conducted at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site in 2001 in a heterogeneous unconfined fluvial aquifer. Some relevant characteristics of this test include: variable-density (sinking) effects because of the injection concentration of the bromide tracer, the relatively small size of the experiment, and the availability of various sources of geophysical and hydrological information. The information contained in this experiment is evaluated through several parameter estimation approaches, including a grid-search-based strategy, stochastic simulation of hydrological property distributions, and deterministic inversion using regularization and pilot-point techniques. Doing this allows us to investigate hydraulic conductivity and effective porosity distributions and to compare the effects of assumptions from several methods and parameterizations. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of variable-density transport processes and the hydrological relevance of incorporating various sources of information in parameter estimation approaches. Among others, the variable-density effect and the effective porosity distribution, as well as their coupling with the hydraulic conductivity structure, are seen to be significant in the transport process. The results also show that assumed prior information can strongly influence the estimated distributions of hydrological properties.

Design and Calibration of the X-33 Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Cobleigh, Brent R.; Haering, Edward A.

1998-01-01

This paper presents the design of the X-33 Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) system. The X-33 FADS uses a matrix of pressure orifices on the vehicle nose to estimate airdata parameters. The system is designed with dual-redundant measurement hardware, which produces two independent measurement paths. Airdata parameters that correspond to the measurement path with the minimum fit error are selected as the output values. This method enables a single sensor failure to occur with minimal degrading of the system performance. The paper shows the X-33 FADS architecture, derives the estimating algorithms, and demonstrates a mathematical analysis of the FADS system stability. Preliminary aerodynamic calibrations are also presented here. The calibration parameters, the position error coefficient (epsilon), and flow correction terms for the angle of attack (delta alpha), and angle of sideslip (delta beta) are derived from wind tunnel data. Statistical accuracy of' the calibration is evaluated by comparing the wind tunnel reference conditions to the airdata parameters estimated. This comparison is accomplished by applying the calibrated FADS algorithm to the sensed wind tunnel pressures. When the resulting accuracy estimates are compared to accuracy requirements for the X-33 airdata, the FADS system meets these requirements.

Three-dimensional saturated-unsaturated flow with axial symmetry to a partially penetrating well in a compressible unconfined aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tartakovsky, Guzel D.; Neuman, Shlomo P.

2007-01-01

A new analytical solution is presented for the delayed response process characterizing flow to a partially penetrating well in an unconfined aquifer. The new solution generalizes that of Neuman (1972, 1974) by accounting for unsaturated flow above the water table. Three-dimensional, axially symmetric flow in the unsaturated zone is described by a linearized version of Richards' equation in which hydraulic conductivity and water content vary exponentially with incremental capillary pressure head relative to its air entry value (defining the interface between the saturated and unsaturated zones). Unsaturated soil properties are characterized by an exponent κ having the dimension of inverse length or, equivalently, a dimensionless exponent κD = κb, where b is initial saturated thickness. Our treatment of the unsaturated zone is similar to that of Kroszynski and Dagan (1975), who, however, have ignored internal (artesian) aquifer storage. According to Kroszynski and Dagan, aquifers that are not excessively shallow have values of κD (their parameter a) much greater than 10. We find that in such typical cases, unsaturated flow has little impact on early and late dimensionless time drawdown a short distance below the water table. Unsaturated flow causes drawdown to increase slightly at intermediate dimensionless time values that represent transition from an early artesian-dominated to a late water-table-dominated flow regime. Delayed drainage from the unsaturated zone becomes less and less important as κD increases; as κD → ∞, this effect dies out, and drawdown is controlled entirely by delayed decline in the water table as in the model of Neuman. The unsaturated zone has a major impact on drawdown at intermediate time and a significant impact at early and late times, in the atypical case of κD ≤ 1, becoming the dominant factor as κD approaches zero (the soil water retention capacity becomes very large and/or saturated thickness becomes insignificant). Our new solution was used to analyze field data from a pumping test conducted by Moench et al. (2001) in a glacial outwash deposit at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The solution was fitted individually and simultaneously to time-drawdown data from 20 piezometers and observation wells and simultaneously to data from three piezometers in each of two clusters at various depths and distances from the pumping well, with very good results. Our parameter estimates of hydraulic conductivities from the simultaneous fit are similar to those obtained previously by Moench (2004), but our estimates of specific yield and storage are smaller and larger, respectively, while our estimate of κ is not comparable with his estimates of three empirical parameters.

Tsunami inundation, sediment transport, and subsequent deposits on topography with a dune

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshii, T.; Tanaka, S.; Matsuyama, M.

2017-12-01

The processes of tsunami inundation, sediment transport, and subsequent deposits on topography with a dune were investigated as part of Tsunami Sediment Transport Large-scale experiments (TSTLE) project. The inundation process on topography with a dune was categorized into first and second phase flows. The first phase flow was governed by the wave speed at the shoreline and the land slope, whereas the second phase flow was governed by the difference in water level at the dune. The deposits caused by the first phase flow (near the inundation limit) were constant regardless of the presence of the dune. Thus, there was no direct relationship between the substantial erosion and deposition near the dune caused by the second phase flow and the inundation limit determined by the initial phase flow. It is impossible to measure hydraulic parameters beyond these governing parameters from the deposits without assumption of waveform. Therefore, if the inundation limit is determined by the initial phase flow, the only way to reconstruct the inundation limit (height) is to investigate the deposits near the limit. The nearshore deposit, which could be sufficiently thick to observe sedimentary structures, would enable us to estimate the wave level in front of the dune.

Field Measurements of the 1983 Royal Gardens Lava Flows, Kilauea Volcano, and 1984 Mauna Loa Lava Flow, Hawaii

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fink, J.; Zimbelman, J.

1985-01-01

Theoretical models used in the remote determination of lava flow rheology and compositions rely on estimates of such geometric and flow parameters as volume flow rates, levee heights, and channel dimensions, as well as morphologic and structural patterns on the flow surfaces. Quantitative measures of these variables are difficult to obtain, even under optimum conditions. Detailed topographic profiles across several Hawaiian lava flows that were carefully monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey during their emplacement in 1983 were surveyed in order to test various flow emplacement models. Twenty two accurate channel cross sections were constructed by combining these profiles with digitized pre-flow topographic measurements. Levee heights, shear zone widths, and flow depths could then be read directly from the cross sections and input into the models. The profiles were also compared with ones constructed for some Martian lava flows.

Estimation of hydraulic parameters from an unconfined aquifer test conducted in a glacial outwash deposit, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moench, A.F.; Garabedian, Stephen P.; LeBlanc, Denis R.

2000-01-01

An aquifer test conducted in a sand and gravel, glacial outwash deposit on Cape Cod, Massachusetts was analyzed by means of a model for flow to a partially penetrating well in a homogeneous, anisotropic unconfined aquifer. The model is designed to account for all significant mechanisms expected to influence drawdown in observation piezometers and in the pumped well. In addition to the usual fluid-flow and storage processes, additional processes include effects of storage in the pumped well, storage in observation piezometers, effects of skin at the pumped-well screen, and effects of drainage from the zone above the water table. The aquifer was pumped at a rate of 320 gallons per minute for 72-hours and drawdown measurements were made in the pumped well and in 20 piezometers located at various distances from the pumped well and depths below the land surface. To facilitate the analysis, an automatic parameter estimation algorithm was used to obtain relevant unconfined aquifer parameters, including the saturated thickness and a set of empirical parameters that relate to gradual drainage from the unsaturated zone. Drainage from the unsaturated zone is treated in this paper as a finite series of exponential terms, each of which contains one empirical parameter that is to be determined. It was necessary to account for effects of gradual drainage from the unsaturated zone to obtain satisfactory agreement between measured and simulated drawdown, particularly in piezometers located near the water table. The commonly used assumption of instantaneous drainage from the unsaturated zone gives rise to large discrepancies between measured and predicted drawdown in the intermediate-time range and can result in inaccurate estimates of aquifer parameters when automatic parameter estimation procedures are used. The values of the estimated hydraulic parameters are consistent with estimates from prior studies and from what is known about the aquifer at the site. Effects of heterogeneity at the site were small as measured drawdowns in all piezometers and wells were very close to the simulated values for a homogeneous porous medium. The estimated values are: specific yield, 0.26; saturated thickness, 170 feet; horizontal hydraulic conductivity, 0.23 feet per minute; vertical hydraulic conductivity, 0.14 feet per minute; and specific storage, 1.3x10-5 per foot. It was found that drawdown in only a few piezometers strategically located at depth near the pumped well yielded parameter estimates close to the estimates obtained for the entire data set analyzed simultaneously. If the influence of gradual drainage from the unsaturated zone is not taken into account, specific yield is significantly underestimated even in these deep-seated piezometers. This helps to explain the low values of specific yield often reported for granular aquifers in the literature. If either the entire data set or only the drawdown in selected deep-seated piezometers was used, it was found unnecessary to conduct the test for the full 72-hours to obtain accurate estimates of the hydraulic parameters. For some piezometer groups, practically identical results would be obtained for an aquifer test conducted for only 8-hours. Drawdowns measured in the pumped well and piezometers at distant locations were diagnostic only of aquifer transmissivity.

A Lagrangian subgrid-scale model with dynamic estimation of Lagrangian time scale for large eddy simulation of complex flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Aman; Mahesh, Krishnan

2012-08-01

The dynamic Lagrangian averaging approach for the dynamic Smagorinsky model for large eddy simulation is extended to an unstructured grid framework and applied to complex flows. The Lagrangian time scale is dynamically computed from the solution and does not need any adjustable parameter. The time scale used in the standard Lagrangian model contains an adjustable parameter θ. The dynamic time scale is computed based on a "surrogate-correlation" of the Germano-identity error (GIE). Also, a simple material derivative relation is used to approximate GIE at different events along a pathline instead of Lagrangian tracking or multi-linear interpolation. Previously, the time scale for homogeneous flows was computed by averaging along directions of homogeneity. The present work proposes modifications for inhomogeneous flows. This development allows the Lagrangian averaged dynamic model to be applied to inhomogeneous flows without any adjustable parameter. The proposed model is applied to LES of turbulent channel flow on unstructured zonal grids at various Reynolds numbers. Improvement is observed when compared to other averaging procedures for the dynamic Smagorinsky model, especially at coarse resolutions. The model is also applied to flow over a cylinder at two Reynolds numbers and good agreement with previous computations and experiments is obtained. Noticeable improvement is obtained using the proposed model over the standard Lagrangian model. The improvement is attributed to a physically consistent Lagrangian time scale. The model also shows good performance when applied to flow past a marine propeller in an off-design condition; it regularizes the eddy viscosity and adjusts locally to the dominant flow features.

Microfluidics for simultaneous quantification of platelet adhesion and blood viscosity

PubMed Central

Yeom, Eunseop; Park, Jun Hong; Kang, Yang Jun; Lee, Sang Joon

2016-01-01

Platelet functions, including adhesion, activation, and aggregation have an influence on thrombosis and the progression of atherosclerosis. In the present study, a new microfluidic-based method is proposed to estimate platelet adhesion and blood viscosity simultaneously. Blood sample flows into an H-shaped microfluidic device with a peristaltic pump. Since platelet aggregation may be initiated by the compression of rotors inside the peristaltic pump, platelet aggregates may adhere to the H-shaped channel. Through correlation mapping, which visualizes decorrelation of the streaming blood flow, the area of adhered platelets (APlatelet) can be estimated without labeling platelets. The platelet function is estimated by determining the representative index IA·T based on APlatelet and contact time. Blood viscosity is measured by monitoring the flow conditions in the one side channel of the H-shaped device. Based on the relation between interfacial width (W) and pressure ratio of sample flows to the reference, blood sample viscosity (μ) can be estimated by measuring W. Biophysical parameters (IA·T, μ) are compared for normal and diabetic rats using an ex vivo extracorporeal model. This microfluidic-based method can be used for evaluating variations in the platelet adhesion and blood viscosity of animal models with cardiovascular diseases under ex vivo conditions. PMID:27118101

Object Scene Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menze, Moritz; Heipke, Christian; Geiger, Andreas

2018-06-01

This work investigates the estimation of dense three-dimensional motion fields, commonly referred to as scene flow. While great progress has been made in recent years, large displacements and adverse imaging conditions as observed in natural outdoor environments are still very challenging for current approaches to reconstruction and motion estimation. In this paper, we propose a unified random field model which reasons jointly about 3D scene flow as well as the location, shape and motion of vehicles in the observed scene. We formulate the problem as the task of decomposing the scene into a small number of rigidly moving objects sharing the same motion parameters. Thus, our formulation effectively introduces long-range spatial dependencies which commonly employed local rigidity priors are lacking. Our inference algorithm then estimates the association of image segments and object hypotheses together with their three-dimensional shape and motion. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach by introducing a novel challenging scene flow benchmark which allows for a thorough comparison of the proposed scene flow approach with respect to various baseline models. In contrast to previous benchmarks, our evaluation is the first to provide stereo and optical flow ground truth for dynamic real-world urban scenes at large scale. Our experiments reveal that rigid motion segmentation can be utilized as an effective regularizer for the scene flow problem, improving upon existing two-frame scene flow methods. At the same time, our method yields plausible object segmentations without requiring an explicitly trained recognition model for a specific object class.

Oxygen consumption estimation with combined color doppler ultrasound and photoacoustic microscopy: a phantom study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yan; Harrison, Tyler; Forbrich, Alex; Zemp, Roger J.

2011-03-01

The metabolic rate of oxygen consumption (MRO2) quantifies tissue metabolism, which is important for diagnosis of many diseases. For a single vessel model, the MRO2 can be estimated in terms of the mean flow velocity, vessel crosssectional area, total concentration of hemoglobin (CHB), and the difference between the oxygen saturation (sO2) of blood flowing into and out of the tissue region. In this work, we would like to show the feasibility to estimate MRO2 with our combined photoacoustic and high-frequency ultrasound imaging system. This system uses a swept-scan 25-MHz ultrasound transducer with confocal dark-field laser illumination optics. A pulse-sequencer enables ultrasonic and laser pulses to be interlaced so that photoacoustic and Doppler ultrasound images are co-registered. Since the mean flow velocity can be measured by color Doppler ultrasound, the vessel cross-sectional area can be measured by power Doppler or photoacoustic imaging, and multi-wavelength photoacoustic methods can be used to estimate sO2 and CHB, all of these parameters necessary for MRO2 estimation can be provided by our system. Experiments have been performed on flow phantoms to generate co-registered color Doppler and photoacoustic images. To verify the sO2 estimation, two ink samples (red and blue) were mixed in various concentration ratios to mimic different levels of sO2, and the result shows a good match between the calculated concentration ratios and actual values.

Analysis of methods to estimate spring flows in a karst aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, N.

2009-01-01

Hydraulically and statistically based methods were analyzed to identify the most reliable method to predict spring flows in a karst aquifer. Measured water levels at nearby observation wells, measured spring pool altitudes, and the distance between observation wells and the spring pool were the parameters used to match measured spring flows. Measured spring flows at six Upper Floridan aquifer springs in central Florida were used to assess the reliability of these methods to predict spring flows. Hydraulically based methods involved the application of the Theis, Hantush-Jacob, and Darcy-Weisbach equations, whereas the statistically based methods were the multiple linear regressions and the technology of artificial neural networks (ANNs). Root mean square errors between measured and predicted spring flows using the Darcy-Weisbach method ranged between 5% and 15% of the measured flows, lower than the 7% to 27% range for the Theis or Hantush-Jacob methods. Flows at all springs were estimated to be turbulent based on the Reynolds number derived from the Darcy-Weisbach equation for conduit flow. The multiple linear regression and the Darcy-Weisbach methods had similar spring flow prediction capabilities. The ANNs provided the lowest residuals between measured and predicted spring flows, ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% of the measured flows. The model prediction efficiency criteria also indicated that the ANNs were the most accurate method predicting spring flows in a karst aquifer. ?? 2008 National Ground Water Association.

Analysis of methods to estimate spring flows in a karst aquifer.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio

2009-01-01

Hydraulically and statistically based methods were analyzed to identify the most reliable method to predict spring flows in a karst aquifer. Measured water levels at nearby observation wells, measured spring pool altitudes, and the distance between observation wells and the spring pool were the parameters used to match measured spring flows. Measured spring flows at six Upper Floridan aquifer springs in central Florida were used to assess the reliability of these methods to predict spring flows. Hydraulically based methods involved the application of the Theis, Hantush-Jacob, and Darcy-Weisbach equations, whereas the statistically based methods were the multiple linear regressions and the technology of artificial neural networks (ANNs). Root mean square errors between measured and predicted spring flows using the Darcy-Weisbach method ranged between 5% and 15% of the measured flows, lower than the 7% to 27% range for the Theis or Hantush-Jacob methods. Flows at all springs were estimated to be turbulent based on the Reynolds number derived from the Darcy-Weisbach equation for conduit flow. The multiple linear regression and the Darcy-Weisbach methods had similar spring flow prediction capabilities. The ANNs provided the lowest residuals between measured and predicted spring flows, ranging from 1.6% to 5.3% of the measured flows. The model prediction efficiency criteria also indicated that the ANNs were the most accurate method predicting spring flows in a karst aquifer.

Understanding leachate flow in municipal solid waste landfills by combining time-lapse ERT and subsurface flow modelling - Part II: Constraint methodology of hydrodynamic models.

PubMed

Audebert, M; Oxarango, L; Duquennoi, C; Touze-Foltz, N; Forquet, N; Clément, R

2016-09-01

Leachate recirculation is a key process in the operation of municipal solid waste landfills as bioreactors. To ensure optimal water content distribution, bioreactor operators need tools to design leachate injection systems. Prediction of leachate flow by subsurface flow modelling could provide useful information for the design of such systems. However, hydrodynamic models require additional data to constrain them and to assess hydrodynamic parameters. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a suitable method to study leachate infiltration at the landfill scale. It can provide spatially distributed information which is useful for constraining hydrodynamic models. However, this geophysical method does not allow ERT users to directly measure water content in waste. The MICS (multiple inversions and clustering strategy) methodology was proposed to delineate the infiltration area precisely during time-lapse ERT survey in order to avoid the use of empirical petrophysical relationships, which are not adapted to a heterogeneous medium such as waste. The infiltration shapes and hydrodynamic information extracted with MICS were used to constrain hydrodynamic models in assessing parameters. The constraint methodology developed in this paper was tested on two hydrodynamic models: an equilibrium model where, flow within the waste medium is estimated using a single continuum approach and a non-equilibrium model where flow is estimated using a dual continuum approach. The latter represents leachate flows into fractures. Finally, this methodology provides insight to identify the advantages and limitations of hydrodynamic models. Furthermore, we suggest an explanation for the large volume detected by MICS when a small volume of leachate is injected. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HYDRORECESSION: A toolbox for streamflow recession analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arciniega, S.

2015-12-01

Streamflow recession curves are hydrological signatures allowing to study the relationship between groundwater storage and baseflow and/or low flows at the catchment scale. Recent studies have showed that streamflow recession analysis can be quite sensitive to the combination of different models, extraction techniques and parameter estimation methods. In order to better characterize streamflow recession curves, new methodologies combining multiple approaches have been recommended. The HYDRORECESSION toolbox, presented here, is a Matlab graphical user interface developed to analyse streamflow recession time series with the support of different tools allowing to parameterize linear and nonlinear storage-outflow relationships through four of the most useful recession models (Maillet, Boussinesq, Coutagne and Wittenberg). The toolbox includes four parameter-fitting techniques (linear regression, lower envelope, data binning and mean squared error) and three different methods to extract hydrograph recessions segments (Vogel, Brutsaert and Aksoy). In addition, the toolbox has a module that separates the baseflow component from the observed hydrograph using the inverse reservoir algorithm. Potential applications provided by HYDRORECESSION include model parameter analysis, hydrological regionalization and classification, baseflow index estimates, catchment-scale recharge and low-flows modelling, among others. HYDRORECESSION is freely available for non-commercial and academic purposes.

Impact of uncertainties in free stream conditions on the aerodynamics of a rectangular cylinder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariotti, Alessandro; Shoeibi Omrani, Pejman; Witteveen, Jeroen; Salvetti, Maria Vittoria

2015-11-01

The BARC benchmark deals with the flow around a rectangular cylinder with chord-to-depth ratio equal to 5. This flow configuration is of practical interest for civil and industrial structures and it is characterized by massively separated flow and unsteadiness. In a recent review of BARC results, significant dispersion was observed both in experimental and numerical predictions of some flow quantities, which are extremely sensitive to various uncertainties, which may be present in experiments and simulations. Besides modeling and numerical errors, in simulations it is difficult to exactly reproduce the experimental conditions due to uncertainties in the set-up parameters, which sometimes cannot be exactly controlled or characterized. Probabilistic methods and URANS simulations are used to investigate the impact of the uncertainties in the following set-up parameters: the angle of incidence, the free stream longitudinal turbulence intensity and length scale. Stochastic collocation is employed to perform the probabilistic propagation of the uncertainty. The discretization and modeling errors are estimated by repeating the same analysis for different grids and turbulence models. The results obtained for different assumed PDF of the set-up parameters are also compared.

Saturated-unsaturated flow to a well with storage in a compressible unconfined aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Phoolendra Kumar; Neuman, Shlomo P.

2011-05-01

Mishra and Neuman (2010) developed an analytical solution for flow to a partially penetrating well of zero radius in a compressible unconfined aquifer that allows inferring its saturated and unsaturated hydraulic properties from responses recorded in the saturated and/or unsaturated zones. Their solution accounts for horizontal as well as vertical flows in each zone. It represents unsaturated zone constitutive properties in a manner that is at once mathematically tractable and sufficiently flexible to provide much improved fits to standard constitutive models. In this paper we extend the solution of [2010] to the case of a finite diameter pumping well with storage; investigate the effects of storage in the pumping well and delayed piezometer response on drawdowns in the saturated and unsaturated zones as functions of position and time; validate our solution against numerical simulations of drawdown in a synthetic aquifer having unsaturated properties described by the [1980]- [1976] model; use our solution to analyze 11 transducer-measured drawdown records from a seven-day pumping test conducted by University of Waterloo researchers at the Canadian Forces Base Borden in Ontario, Canada; validate our parameter estimates against manually-measured drawdown records in 14 other piezometers at Borden; and compare (a) our estimates of aquifer parameters with those obtained on the basis of all these records by [2008], (b) on the basis of 11 transducer-measured drawdown records by [2007], (c) our estimates of van Genuchten-Mualem parameters with those obtained on the basis of laboratory drainage data from the site by [1992], and (d) our corresponding prediction of how effective saturation varies with elevation above the initial water table under static conditions with a profile based on water contents measured in a neutron access tube at a radial distance of about 5 m from the center of the pumping well. We also use our solution to analyze 11 transducer-measured drawdown records from a 7 day pumping test conducted by University of Waterloo researchers at the Canadian Forces Base Borden in Ontario, Canada. We validate our parameter estimates against manually measured drawdown records in 14 other piezometers at Borden. We compare our estimates of aquifer parameters with those obtained on the basis of all these records by Moench (2008) and on the basis of 11 transducer-measured drawdown records by Endres et al. (2007), and we compare our estimates of van Genuchten-Mualem parameters with those obtained on the basis of laboratory drainage data from the site by Akindunni and Gillham (1992); finally, we compare our corresponding prediction of how effective saturation varies with elevation above the initial water table under static conditions with a profile based on water contents measured in a neutron access tube at a radial distance of about 5 m from the center of the pumping well.

One-Dimensional, Two-Phase Flow Modeling Toward Interpreting Motor Slag Expulsion Phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kibbey, Timothy P.

2012-01-01

Aluminum oxide slag accumulation and expulsion was previously shown to be a player in various solid rocket motor phenomena, including the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) pressure perturbation, or "blip," and phantom moment. In the latter case, such un ]commanded side accelerations near the end of burn have also been identified in several other motor systems. However, efforts to estimate the mass expelled during a given event have come up short. Either bulk calculations are performed without enough physics present, or multiphase, multidimensional Computational Fluid Dynamic analyses are performed that give a snapshot in time and space but do not always aid in grasping the general principle. One ]dimensional, two ]phase compressible flow calculations yield an analytical result for nozzle flow under certain assumptions. This can be carried further to relate the bulk motor parameters of pressure, thrust, and mass flow rate under the different exhaust conditions driven by the addition of condensed phase mass flow. An unknown parameter is correlated to airflow testing with water injection where mass flow rates and pressure are known. Comparison is also made to full ]scale static test motor data where thrust and pressure changes are known and similar behavior is shown. The end goal is to be able to include the accumulation and flow of slag in internal ballistics predictions. This will allow better prediction of the tailoff when much slag is ejected and of mass retained versus time, believed to be a contributor to the widely-observed "flight knockdown" parameter.

A simple analytical method to estimate all exit parameters of a cross-flow air dehumidifier using liquid desiccant.

PubMed

Bassuoni, M M

2014-03-01

The dehumidifier is a key component in liquid desiccant air-conditioning systems. Analytical solutions have more advantages than numerical solutions in studying the dehumidifier performance parameters. This paper presents the performance results of exit parameters from an analytical model of an adiabatic cross-flow liquid desiccant air dehumidifier. Calcium chloride is used as desiccant material in this investigation. A program performing the analytical solution is developed using the engineering equation solver software. Good accuracy has been found between analytical solution and reliable experimental results with a maximum deviation of +6.63% and -5.65% in the moisture removal rate. The method developed here can be used in the quick prediction of the dehumidifier performance. The exit parameters from the dehumidifier are evaluated under the effects of variables such as air temperature and humidity, desiccant temperature and concentration, and air to desiccant flow rates. The results show that hot humid air and desiccant concentration have the greatest impact on the performance of the dehumidifier. The moisture removal rate is decreased with increasing both air inlet temperature and desiccant temperature while increases with increasing air to solution mass ratio, inlet desiccant concentration, and inlet air humidity ratio.

On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2017-01-01

Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Discrete simulations of spatio-temporal dynamics of small water bodies under varied stream flow discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daya Sagar, B. S.

2005-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of small water bodies (SWBs) under the influence of temporally varied stream flow discharge are simulated in discrete space by employing geomorphologically realistic expansion and contraction transformations. Cascades of expansion-contraction are systematically performed by synchronizing them with stream flow discharge simulated via the logistic map. Templates with definite characteristic information are defined from stream flow discharge pattern as the basis to model the spatio-temporal organization of randomly situated surface water bodies of various sizes and shapes. These spatio-temporal patterns under varied parameters (λs) controlling stream flow discharge patterns are characterized by estimating their fractal dimensions. At various λs, nonlinear control parameters, we show the union of boundaries of water bodies that traverse the water body and non-water body spaces as geomorphic attractors. The computed fractal dimensions of these attractors are 1.58, 1.53, 1.78, 1.76, 1.84, and 1.90, respectively, at λs of 1, 2, 3, 3.46, 3.57, and 3.99. These values are in line with general visual observations.

Robust Low-dose CT Perfusion Deconvolution via Tensor Total-Variation Regularization

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shaoting; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

2016-01-01

Acute brain diseases such as acute strokes and transit ischemic attacks are the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide, responsible for 9% of total death every year. ‘Time is brain’ is a widely accepted concept in acute cerebrovascular disease treatment. Efficient and accurate computational framework for hemodynamic parameters estimation can save critical time for thrombolytic therapy. Meanwhile the high level of accumulated radiation dosage due to continuous image acquisition in CT perfusion (CTP) raised concerns on patient safety and public health. However, low-radiation leads to increased noise and artifacts which require more sophisticated and time-consuming algorithms for robust estimation. In this paper, we focus on developing a robust and efficient framework to accurately estimate the perfusion parameters at low radiation dosage. Specifically, we present a tensor total-variation (TTV) technique which fuses the spatial correlation of the vascular structure and the temporal continuation of the blood signal flow. An efficient algorithm is proposed to find the solution with fast convergence and reduced computational complexity. Extensive evaluations are carried out in terms of sensitivity to noise levels, estimation accuracy, contrast preservation, and performed on digital perfusion phantom estimation, as well as in-vivo clinical subjects. Our framework reduces the necessary radiation dose to only 8% of the original level and outperforms the state-of-art algorithms with peak signal-to-noise ratio improved by 32%. It reduces the oscillation in the residue functions, corrects over-estimation of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and under-estimation of mean transit time (MTT), and maintains the distinction between the deficit and normal regions. PMID:25706579

stochastic estimation of transmissivity fields conditioned to flow connectivity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freixas, Genis; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-vila, Xavier

2017-04-01

Most methods for hydraulic parameter interpretation rely on a number of simplifications regarding the homogeneity of the underlying porous media. This way, the actual heterogeneity of any natural parameter, such as transmissivity, is transferred to the estimated in a way heavily dependent on the interpretation method used. An example is a pumping test, in most cases interpreted by means of the Cooper-Jacob method, which implicitly assumes a homogeneous isotropic confined aquifer. It was shown that the estimates obtained from this method when applied to a real site are not local values, but still have a physical meaning; the estimated transmissivity is equal to the effective transmissivity characteristic of the regional scale, while the log-ratio of the estimated storage coefficient with respect to the actual real value (assumed constant), indicated by , is an indicator of flow connectivity, representative of the scale given by the distance between the pumping and the observation wells. In this work we propose a methodology to use together with actual measurements of the log transmissivity at selected points to obtain a map of the best local transmissivity estimates using cokriging. Since the interpolation involves two variables measured at different support scales, a critical point is the estimation of the covariance and crosscovariance matrices, involving some quadratures that are obtained using some simplified approach. The method was applied to a synthetic field displaying statistical anisotropy, showing that the use of connectivity indicators mixed with the local values provide a better representation of the local value map, in particular regarding the enhanced representation of the continuity of structures corresponding to either high or low values.

An algorithm to estimate aircraft cruise black carbon emissions for use in developing a cruise emissions inventory.

PubMed

Peck, Jay; Oluwole, Oluwayemisi O; Wong, Hsi-Wu; Miake-Lye, Richard C

2013-03-01

To provide accurate input parameters to the large-scale global climate simulation models, an algorithm was developed to estimate the black carbon (BC) mass emission index for engines in the commercial fleet at cruise. Using a high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) global sensitivity analysis, relevant engine specification/operation parameters were ranked, and the most important parameters were selected. Simple algebraic formulas were then constructed based on those important parameters. The algorithm takes the cruise power (alternatively, fuel flow rate), altitude, and Mach number as inputs, and calculates BC emission index for a given engine/airframe combination using the engine property parameters, such as the smoke number, available in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) engine certification databank. The algorithm can be interfaced with state-of-the-art aircraft emissions inventory development tools, and will greatly improve the global climate simulations that currently use a single fleet average value for all airplanes. An algorithm to estimate the cruise condition black carbon emission index for commercial aircraft engines was developed. Using the ICAO certification data, the algorithm can evaluate the black carbon emission at given cruise altitude and speed.

Multimodeling with Pedotransfer functions. Documentation and user Manual for PTF Calculator (CalcPTF)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulations of soil water flow are often carried out with parameters estimated using pedotransfer functions (PTFs), which are empirical relationships between the soil hydraulic properties and more easily obtainable basic soil properties available, for example, from soil surveys. The use of pedotrans...

Annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and PRISM precipitation for gaged basins in the Appalachian Plateaus Region, 1900-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelms, David L.; Messinger, Terence; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-07-14

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and precipitation data from parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) were determined at 849 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations from Mississippi to New York and covered the period of 1900 to 2011. Only complete calendar years (January to December) of streamflow record at each gage were used to determine estimates of base flow, which is that part of streamflow attributed to groundwater discharge; such estimates can serve as a proxy for annual recharge. For each year, estimates of annual base flow, runoff, and base-flow index were determined using computer programs—PART, HYSEP, and BFI—that have automated the separation procedures. These streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods are provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox, which is a new program that provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Windows environment. Annual values of precipitation were estimated by calculating the average of cell values intercepted by basin boundaries where previously defined in the GAGES–II dataset. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration were then calculated from the difference between precipitation and streamflow.

Prediction of unsteady separated flows on oscillating airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccroskey, W. J.

1978-01-01

Techniques for calculating high Reynolds number flow around an airfoil undergoing dynamic stall are reviewed. Emphasis is placed on predicting the values of lift, drag, and pitching moments. Methods discussed include: the discrete potential vortex method; thin boundary layer method; strong interaction between inviscid and viscous flows; and solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations. Empirical methods for estimating unsteady airloads on oscillating airfoils are also described. These methods correlate force and moment data from wind tunnel tests to indicate the effects of various parameters, such as airfoil shape, Mach number, amplitude and frequency of sinosoidal oscillations, mean angle, and type of motion.

Three-dimensional real-time imaging of bi-phasic flow through porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Prerna; Aswathi, P.; Sane, Anit; Ghosh, Shankar; Bhattacharya, S.

2011-11-01

We present a scanning laser-sheet video imaging technique to image bi-phasic flow in three-dimensional porous media in real time with pore-scale spatial resolution, i.e., 35 μm and 500 μm for directions parallel and perpendicular to the flow, respectively. The technique is illustrated for the case of viscous fingering. Using suitable image processing protocols, both the morphology and the movement of the two-fluid interface, were quantitatively estimated. Furthermore, a macroscopic parameter such as the displacement efficiency obtained from a microscopic (pore-scale) analysis demonstrates the versatility and usefulness of the method.

A numerical study on the correlation between fracture transmissivity, hydraulic aperture and transport aperture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, A.; Takebe, A.; Sakamoto, K.

2006-12-01

Quantitative evaluation of the groundwater velocity in the fractures is a key part of contaminants transport assessment especially in the radioactive waste disposal programs. In a hydrogeological model such as the discrete fracture network model, the transport aperture of water conducting fracture is one of the important parameters for evaluating groundwater velocity. Tracer tests that measure velocity (or transport aperture) are few compared with flow tests that measure transmissivity (or hydraulic aperture). Thus it is useful to estimate transport properties from flow properties. It is commonly assumed that flow and transport aperture are the same, and that aperture is related to the cube root of transmissivity by the parallel-plate analog. Actual field experiments, however, show transport and hydraulic apertures are not always the same, and that transport aperture relates to an empirical constant times the square root of transmissivity. Compared with these field results, the cubic law underestimates transport aperture and overestimates velocity. A possible source of this discrepancy is in-plane heterogeneity of aperture and transmissivity. To study this behavior, numerical simulations using MAFIC were conducted for a single fracture model with a heterogeneous aperture distribution. The simulations varied three parameters - the mean geometrical aperture, JRC (Joint Roughness Coefficient), and the contact area ratio (fracture contact area divided by total fracture area). For each model we determined the equivalent transmissivity and cubic-law aperture under steady flow conditions. Then we simulated mass transport using particle tracking through the same fracture. The transport aperture was estimated from the particle peak arrival time at the downstream boundary. The results show that the mean geometrical aperture is the most sensitive parameter among the three variable parameters in this study. It is also found that the contact area ratio affects transmissivity more than the JRC, and while the JRC strongly affects the velocity and transport aperture. Based on these results, a correlation between the transmissivity, the hydraulic conductivity and the transport aperture will be discussed.

Multi-process herbicide transport in structured soil columns: Experiments and model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhne, J. Maximilian; Köhne, Sigrid; Šimůnek, Jirka

2006-05-01

Model predictions of pesticide transport in structured soils are complicated by multiple processes acting concurrently. In this study, the hydraulic, physical, and chemical nonequilibrium (HNE, PNE, and CNE, respectively) processes governing herbicide transport under variably saturated flow conditions were studied. Bromide (Br -), isoproturon (IPU, 3-(4-isoprpylphenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea) and terbuthylazine (TER, N2-tert-butyl-6-chloro- N4-ethyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine) were applied to two soil columns. An aggregated Ap soil column and a macroporous, aggregated Ah soil column were irrigated at a rate of 1 cm h - 1 for 3 h. Two more irrigations at the same rate and duration followed in weekly intervals. Nonlinear (Freundlich) equilibrium and two-site kinetic sorption parameters were determined for IPU and TER using batch experiments. The observed water flow and Br - transport were inversely simulated using mobile-immobile (MIM), dual-permeability (DPM), and combined triple-porosity (DP-MIM) numerical models implemented in HYDRUS-1D, with improving correspondence between empirical data and model results. Using the estimated HNE and PNE parameters together with batch-test derived equilibrium sorption parameters, the preferential breakthrough of the weakly adsorbed IPU in the Ah soil could be reasonably well predicted with the DPM approach, whereas leaching of the strongly adsorbed TER was predicted less well. The transport of IPU and TER through the aggregated Ap soil could be described consistently only when HNE, PNE, and CNE were simultaneously accounted for using the DPM. Inverse parameter estimation suggested that two-site kinetic sorption in inter-aggregate flow paths was reduced as compared to within aggregates, and that large values for the first-order degradation rate were an artifact caused by irreversible sorption. Overall, our results should be helpful to enhance the understanding and modeling of multi-process pesticide transport through structured soils during variably saturated water flow.

EFFECT OF FLOW CHARACTERISTICS ON DO DISTRIBUTION IN A FULL SCALE OXIDATION DITCH WITH DIFFUSED AERATION AND VERTICAL FLOW BOOSTERS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamachi, Kazuo; Fujiwara, Taku; Kawaguchi, Yukio; Tsuno, Hiroshi

The high loading rate oxidation ditch (OD) system with dual dissolved oxygen (DO) control has been developed for the purpose of advanced wastewater treatment and cost saving. For the purpose of scale-up to the real scale, the clean water experiments were conducted, with the full scale oxidation ditch with diffused aeration and vertical flow boosters, to examine the effect to the dual DO control by the design and operational factors, which include a flow characteristics and a oxygen supply capability. In this study, the flow characteristics of the OD channel were analyzed using a tank number and circulation ratio as the parameters. The analysis showed the complicated flow characteristics of the OD channel, which changed from the plug flow to the completely mixing transiently. Based on the tank number N =65~100 which were obtained from the tracer tests, a model of DO mass balance was constructed, then the accurate method for estimate the overall oxygen transfer coefficients was proposed. The potential error of the conventional method in the specific conditions was indicated. In addition, the effect of the flow characteristics on the design and operational parameters of the dual DO control, which include the circulation time or the DO profile, was clarified.

An Optical Flow-Based Full Reference Video Quality Assessment Algorithm.

PubMed

K, Manasa; Channappayya, Sumohana S

2016-06-01

We present a simple yet effective optical flow-based full-reference video quality assessment (FR-VQA) algorithm for assessing the perceptual quality of natural videos. Our algorithm is based on the premise that local optical flow statistics are affected by distortions and the deviation from pristine flow statistics is proportional to the amount of distortion. We characterize the local flow statistics using the mean, the standard deviation, the coefficient of variation (CV), and the minimum eigenvalue ( λ min ) of the local flow patches. Temporal distortion is estimated as the change in the CV of the distorted flow with respect to the reference flow, and the correlation between λ min of the reference and of the distorted patches. We rely on the robust multi-scale structural similarity index for spatial quality estimation. The computed temporal and spatial distortions, thus, are then pooled using a perceptually motivated heuristic to generate a spatio-temporal quality score. The proposed method is shown to be competitive with the state-of-the-art when evaluated on the LIVE SD database, the EPFL Polimi SD database, and the LIVE Mobile HD database. The distortions considered in these databases include those due to compression, packet-loss, wireless channel errors, and rate-adaptation. Our algorithm is flexible enough to allow for any robust FR spatial distortion metric for spatial distortion estimation. In addition, the proposed method is not only parameter-free but also independent of the choice of the optical flow algorithm. Finally, we show that the replacement of the optical flow vectors in our proposed method with the much coarser block motion vectors also results in an acceptable FR-VQA algorithm. Our algorithm is called the flow similarity index.

Evaluating Snow Data Assimilation Framework for Streamflow Forecasting Applications Using Hindcast Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2012-12-01

Snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation is a key factor in producing reliable streamflow simulations and forecasts in snow dominated areas. However, measuring or predicting SWE has significant uncertainty. Sequential data assimilation, which updates states using both observed and modeled data based on error estimation, has been shown to reduce streamflow simulation errors but has had limited testing for forecasting applications. In the current study, a snow data assimilation framework integrated with the National Weather System River Forecasting System (NWSRFS) is evaluated for use in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). Seasonal water supply ESP hindcasts are generated for the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) in northern California. Parameter sets from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm and the Multistep Automated Calibration Scheme (MACS) are tested both with and without sequential data assimilation. The traditional ESP method considers uncertainty in future climate conditions using historical temperature and precipitation time series to generate future streamflow scenarios conditioned on the current basin state. We include data uncertainty analysis in the forecasting framework through the DREAM-based parameter set which is part of a recently developed Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation framework (ICEA). Extensive verification of all tested approaches is undertaken using traditional forecast verification measures, including root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), volumetric bias, joint distribution, rank probability score (RPS), and discrimination and reliability plots. In comparison to the RFC parameters, the DREAM and MACS sets show significant improvement in volumetric bias in flow. Use of assimilation improves hindcasts of higher flows but does not significantly improve performance in the mid flow and low flow categories.

Improved estimation of hydraulic conductivity by combining stochastically simulated hydrofacies with geophysical data

PubMed Central

Zhu, Lin; Gong, Huili; Chen, Yun; Li, Xiaojuan; Chang, Xiang; Cui, Yijiao

2016-01-01

Hydraulic conductivity is a major parameter affecting the output accuracy of groundwater flow and transport models. The most commonly used semi-empirical formula for estimating conductivity is Kozeny-Carman equation. However, this method alone does not work well with heterogeneous strata. Two important parameters, grain size and porosity, often show spatial variations at different scales. This study proposes a method for estimating conductivity distributions by combining a stochastic hydrofacies model with geophysical methods. The Markov chain model with transition probability matrix was adopted to re-construct structures of hydrofacies for deriving spatial deposit information. The geophysical and hydro-chemical data were used to estimate the porosity distribution through the Archie’s law. Results show that the stochastic simulated hydrofacies model reflects the sedimentary features with an average model accuracy of 78% in comparison with borehole log data in the Chaobai alluvial fan. The estimated conductivity is reasonable and of the same order of magnitude of the outcomes of the pumping tests. The conductivity distribution is consistent with the sedimentary distributions. This study provides more reliable spatial distributions of the hydraulic parameters for further numerical modeling. PMID:26927886

Wide-range measurement of thermal effusivity using molybdenum thin film with low thermal conductivity for thermal microscopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shugo; Matsui, Genzou; Ohta, Hiromichi; Hatori, Kimihito; Taguchi, Kohei; Yamamoto, Suguru

2017-07-01

Thermal microscopes are a useful technology to investigate the spatial distribution of the thermal transport properties of various materials. However, for high thermal effusivity materials, the estimated values of thermophysical parameters based on the conventional 1D heat flow model are known to be higher than the values of materials in the literature. Here, we present a new procedure to solve the problem which calculates the theoretical temperature response with the 3D heat flow and measures reference materials which involve known values of thermal effusivity and heat capacity. In general, a complicated numerical iterative method and many thermophysical parameters are required for the calculation in the 3D heat flow model. Here, we devised a simple procedure by using a molybdenum (Mo) thin film with low thermal conductivity on the sample surface, enabling us to measure over a wide thermal effusivity range for various materials.

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of Subsurface Flow Parameters to Gravimetric Variations During Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maina, Fadji Zaouna; Guadagnini, Alberto

2018-01-01

We study the contribution of typically uncertain subsurface flow parameters to gravity changes that can be recorded during pumping tests in unconfined aquifers. We do so in the framework of a Global Sensitivity Analysis and quantify the effects of uncertainty of such parameters on the first four statistical moments of the probability distribution of gravimetric variations induced by the operation of the well. System parameters are grouped into two main categories, respectively, governing groundwater flow in the unsaturated and saturated portions of the domain. We ground our work on the three-dimensional analytical model proposed by Mishra and Neuman (2011), which fully takes into account the richness of the physical process taking place across the unsaturated and saturated zones and storage effects in a finite radius pumping well. The relative influence of model parameter uncertainties on drawdown, moisture content, and gravity changes are quantified through (a) the Sobol' indices, derived from a classical decomposition of variance and (b) recently developed indices quantifying the relative contribution of each uncertain model parameter to the (ensemble) mean, skewness, and kurtosis of the model output. Our results document (i) the importance of the effects of the parameters governing the unsaturated flow dynamics on the mean and variance of local drawdown and gravity changes; (ii) the marked sensitivity (as expressed in terms of the statistical moments analyzed) of gravity changes to the employed water retention curve model parameter, specific yield, and storage, and (iii) the influential role of hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated and saturated zones to the skewness and kurtosis of gravimetric variation distributions. The observed temporal dynamics of the strength of the relative contribution of system parameters to gravimetric variations suggest that gravity data have a clear potential to provide useful information for estimating the key hydraulic parameters of the system.

Real-time monitoring of a microbial electrolysis cell using an electrical equivalent circuit model.

PubMed

Hussain, S A; Perrier, M; Tartakovsky, B

2018-04-01

Efforts in developing microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) resulted in several novel approaches for wastewater treatment and bioelectrosynthesis. Practical implementation of these approaches necessitates the development of an adequate system for real-time (on-line) monitoring and diagnostics of MEC performance. This study describes a simple MEC equivalent electrical circuit (EEC) model and a parameter estimation procedure, which enable such real-time monitoring. The proposed approach involves MEC voltage and current measurements during its operation with periodic power supply connection/disconnection (on/off operation) followed by parameter estimation using either numerical or analytical solution of the model. The proposed monitoring approach is demonstrated using a membraneless MEC with flow-through porous electrodes. Laboratory tests showed that changes in the influent carbon source concentration and composition significantly affect MEC total internal resistance and capacitance estimated by the model. Fast response of these EEC model parameters to changes in operating conditions enables the development of a model-based approach for real-time monitoring and fault detection.

Redox flow batteries with serpentine flow fields: Distributions of electrolyte flow reactant penetration into the porous carbon electrodes and effects on performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Xinyou; Prahl, Joseph M.; Alexander, J. Iwan D.; Savinell, Robert F.

2018-04-01

Redox flow batteries with flow field designs have been demonstrated to boost their capacities to deliver high current density and power density in medium and large-scale energy storage applications. Nevertheless, the fundamental mechanisms involved with improved current density in flow batteries with serpentine flow field designs have been not fully understood. Here we report a three-dimensional model of a serpentine flow field over a porous carbon electrode to examine the distributions of pressure driven electrolyte flow penetrations into the porous carbon electrodes. We also estimate the maximum current densities associated with stoichiometric availability of electrolyte reactant flow penetrations through the porous carbon electrodes. The results predict reasonably well observed experimental data without using any adjustable parameters. This fundamental work on electrolyte flow distributions of limiting reactant availability will contribute to a better understanding of limits on electrochemical performance in flow batteries with serpentine flow field designs and should be helpful to optimizing flow batteries.

Building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow: a model and its application to Vesuvius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Robin J. S.; Baxter, Peter J.; Zuccaro, Giulio

2004-05-01

Pyroclastic flows clearly present a serious threat to life for the inhabitants of settlements on the slopes of volcanoes with a history of explosive eruptions; but it is increasingly realised that buildings can provide a measure of protection to occupants trapped by such flows. One important example is Vesuvius, whose eruption history includes many events which were lethal for the inhabitants of the neighbouring Vesuvian villages. Recent computational fluid dynamics computer modelling for Vesuvius [Todesco et al., Bull. Volcanol. 64 (2002) 155-177] has enabled a realistic picture of an explosive eruption to be modelled, tracing the time-dependent development of the physical parameters of a simulated flow at a large three-dimensional mesh of points, based on assumed conditions of temperature, mass-flow rate and particle size distribution at the vent. The output includes mapping of temperature, mixture density and mixture velocity over the whole adjacent terrain. But to date this information has not been used to assess the impacts of such flows on buildings and their occupants. In the project reported in this paper, estimates of the near-ground flow parameters were used to assess the impact of a particular simulated pyroclastic flow (modelled roughly on the 1631 eruption) on the buildings and population in four of the Vesuvian villages considered most at risk. The study had five components. First, a survey of buildings and the urban environment was conducted to identify the incidence of characteristics and elements likely to affect human vulnerability, and to classify the building stock. The survey emphasised particularly the number, location and type of openings characteristic of the major classes of the local building stock. In the second part of the study, this survey formed the basis for estimates of the probable impact of the pyroclastic flow on the envelope and internal air conditions of typical buildings. In the third part, a number of distinct ways in which human casualties would occur were identified, and estimates were made of the relationship between casualty rates and environmental conditions for each casualty type. In the fourth part of the study, the assumed casualty rates were used to estimate the proportions of occupants who would be killed or seriously injured for the assumed pyroclastic flow scenario in the Vesuvian villages studied, and their distribution by distance from the vent. It was estimated that in a daytime eruption, 25 min after the start of the eruption, there would be 480 deaths and a further 190 serious injuries, for every 1000 remaining in the area. In a night-time scenario, there would be 360 deaths with a further 230 serious injuries per 1000 after the same time interval. Finally, a set of risk factors for casualties was identified, and factors were discussed and ranked for their mitigation impact in the eruption scenario. The most effective mitigation action would of course be total evacuation before the start of the eruption. But if this were not achieved, barred window openings or sealed openings to slow the ingress of hot gases, together with a reduction of the fire load, could be effective means of reducing casualty levels.

A novel bridge scour monitoring and prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Michalis, Panagiotis; Zhang, Hanqing

2015-04-01

Earth's surface is continuously shaped due to the action of geophysical flows. Erosion due to the flow of water in river systems has been identified as a key problem in preserving ecological health but also a threat to our built environment and critical infrastructure, worldwide. As an example, it has been estimated that a major reason for bridge failure is due to scour. Even though the flow past bridge piers has been investigated both experimentally and numerically, and the mechanisms of scouring are relatively understood, there still lacks a tool that can offer fast and reliable predictions. Most of the existing formulas for prediction of bridge pier scour depth are empirical in nature, based on a limited range of data or for piers of specific shape. In this work, the use of a novel methodology is proposed for the prediction of bridge scour. Specifically, the use of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is proposed to estimate the scour depth around bridge piers. In particular, various complexity architectures are sequentially built, in order to identify the optimal for scour depth predictions, using appropriate training and validation subsets obtained from the USGS database (and pre-processed to remove incomplete records). The model has five variables, namely the effective pier width (b), the approach velocity (v), the approach depth (y), the mean grain diameter (D50) and the skew to flow. Simulations are conducted with data groups (bed material type, pier type and shape) and different number of input variables, to produce reduced complexity and easily interpretable models. Analysis and comparison of the results indicate that the developed ANFIS model has high accuracy and outstanding generalization ability for prediction of scour parameters. The effective pier width (as opposed to skew to flow) is amongst the most relevant input parameters for the estimation. Training of the system to new bridge geometries and flow conditions can be achieved by obtaining real time data, via novel electromagnetic sensors monitoring scour depth. Once the model is trained with data representative of the new system, bridge scour prediction can be performed for high/design flows or floods.

Framework for quantifying flow and sediment yield to diagnose and solve the aggradation problem of an ungauged catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamang, Sagar Kumar; Song, Wenjun; Fang, Xing; Vasconcelos, Jose; Anderson, J. Brian

2018-06-01

Estimating sediment deposition in a stream, a standard procedure for dealing with aggradation problem is complicated in an ungauged catchment due to the absence of necessary flow data. A serious aggradation problem within an ungauged catchment in Alabama, USA, blocked the conveyance of a bridge, reducing the clearance under the bridge from several feet to a couple of inches. A study of historical aerial imageries showed deforestation in the catchment by a significant amount over a period consistent with the first identification of the problem. To further diagnose the aggradation problem, due to the lack of any gauging stations, local rainfall, flow, and sediment measurements were attempted. However, due to the difficulty of installing an area-velocity sensor in an actively aggrading stream, the parameter transfer process for a hydrologic model was adopted to understand/estimate streamflow. Simulated discharge combined with erosion parameters of MUSLE (modified universal soil loss equation) helped in the estimation of sediment yield of the catchment. Sediment yield for the catchment showed a significant increase in recent years. A two-dimensional hydraulic model was developed at the bridge site to examine potential engineering strategies to wash sediments off and mitigate further aggradation. This study is to quantify the increase of sediment yield in an ungauged catchment due to land cover changes and other contributing factors and develop strategies and recommendations for preventing future aggradation in the vicinity of the bridge.

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2012-12-01

Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques, MCMC

The use of simulation and multiple environmental tracers to quantify groundwater flow in a shallow aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reilly, Thomas E.; Plummer, Niel; Phillips, Patrick J.; Busenberg, Eurybiades

1994-01-01

Measurements of the concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), tritium, and other environmental tracers can be used to calculate recharge ages of shallow groundwater and estimate rates of groundwater movement. Numerical simulation also provides quantitative estimates of flow rates, flow paths, and mixing properties of the groundwater system. The environmental tracer techniques and the hydraulic analyses each contribute to the understanding and quantification of the flow of shallow groundwater. However, when combined, the two methods provide feedback that improves the quantification of the flow system and provides insight into the processes that are the most uncertain. A case study near Locust Grove, Maryland, is used to investigate the utility of combining groundwater age dating, based on CFCs and tritium, and hydraulic analyses using numerical simulation techniques. The results of the feedback between an advective transport model and the estimates of groundwater ages determined by the CFCs improve a quantitative description of the system by refining the system conceptualization and estimating system parameters. The plausible system developed with this feedback between the advective flow model and the CFC ages is further tested using a solute transport simulation to reproduce the observed tritium distribution in the groundwater. The solute transport simulation corroborates the plausible system developed and also indicates that, for the system under investigation with the data obtained from 0.9-m-long (3-foot-long) well screens, the hydrodynamic dispersion is negligible. Together the two methods enable a coherent explanation of the flow paths and rates of movement while indicating weaknesses in the understanding of the system that will require future data collection and conceptual refinement of the groundwater system.

Parameter Estimation for a Pulsating Turbulent Buoyant Jet Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christopher, Jason; Wimer, Nicholas; Lapointe, Caelan; Hayden, Torrey; Grooms, Ian; Rieker, Greg; Hamlington, Peter

2017-11-01

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a powerful tool that allows sparse experimental or other ``truth'' data to be used for the prediction of unknown parameters, such as flow properties and boundary conditions, in numerical simulations of real-world engineering systems. Here we introduce the ABC approach and then use ABC to predict unknown inflow conditions in simulations of a two-dimensional (2D) turbulent, high-temperature buoyant jet. For this test case, truth data are obtained from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) with known boundary conditions and problem parameters, while the ABC procedure utilizes lower fidelity large eddy simulations. Using spatially-sparse statistics from the 2D buoyant jet DNS, we show that the ABC method provides accurate predictions of true jet inflow parameters. The success of the ABC approach in the present test suggests that ABC is a useful and versatile tool for predicting flow information, such as boundary conditions, that can be difficult to determine experimentally.

Understanding which parameters control shallow ascent of silicic effusive magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Mark E.; Neuberg, Jurgen W.

2014-11-01

The estimation of the magma ascent rate is key to predicting volcanic activity and relies on the understanding of how strongly the ascent rate is controlled by different magmatic parameters. Linking potential changes of such parameters to monitoring data is an essential step to be able to use these data as a predictive tool. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models Soufrière that assess the influence of individual model parameters such as the magmatic water content, temperature or bulk magma composition on the magma flow in the conduit during an extrusive dome eruption. By systematically varying these parameters we assess their relative importance to changes in ascent rate. We show that variability in the rate of low frequency seismicity, assumed to correlate directly with the rate of magma movement, can be used as an indicator for changes in ascent rate and, therefore, eruptive activity. The results indicate that conduit diameter and excess pressure in the magma chamber are amongst the dominant controlling variables, but the single most important parameter is the volatile content (assumed as only water). Modeling this parameter in the range of reported values causes changes in the calculated ascent velocities of up to 800%.

Runoff load estimation of particulate and dissolved nitrogen in Lake Inba watershed using continuous monitoring data on turbidity and electric conductivity.

PubMed

Kim, J; Nagano, Y; Furumai, H

2012-01-01

Easy-to-measure surrogate parameters for water quality indicators are needed for real time monitoring as well as for generating data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a novel linear regression model for estimating total nitrogen (TN) based on two surrogate parameters is proposed based on evaluation of pollutant loads flowing into a eutrophic lake. Based on their runoff characteristics during wet weather, electric conductivity (EC) and turbidity were selected as surrogates for particulate nitrogen (PN) and dissolved nitrogen (DN), respectively. Strong linear relationships were established between PN and turbidity and DN and EC, and both models subsequently combined for estimation of TN. This model was evaluated by comparison of estimated and observed TN runoff loads during rainfall events. This analysis showed that turbidity and EC are viable surrogates for PN and DN, respectively, and that the linear regression model for TN concentration was successful in estimating TN runoff loads during rainfall events and also under dry weather conditions.

Effect of Carreau-Yasuda rheological parameters on subcritical Lapwood convection in horizontal porous cavity saturated by shear-thinning fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khechiba, Khaled; Mamou, Mahmoud; Hachemi, Madjid; Delenda, Nassim; Rebhi, Redha

2017-06-01

The present study is focused on Lapwood convection in isotropic porous media saturated with non-Newtonian shear thinning fluid. The non-Newtonian rheological behavior of the fluid is modeled using the general viscosity model of Carreau-Yasuda. The convection configuration consists of a shallow porous cavity with a finite aspect ratio and subject to a vertical constant heat flux, whereas the vertical walls are maintained impermeable and adiabatic. An approximate analytical solution is developed on the basis of the parallel flow assumption, and numerical solutions are obtained by solving the full governing equations. The Darcy model with the Boussinesq approximation and energy transport equations are solved numerically using a finite difference method. The results are obtained in terms of the Nusselt number and the flow fields as functions of the governing parameters. A good agreement is obtained between the analytical approximation and the numerical solution of the full governing equations. The effects of the rheological parameters of the Carreau-Yasuda fluid and Rayleigh number on the onset of subcritical convection thresholds are demonstrated. Regardless of the aspect ratio of the enclosure and thermal boundary condition type, the subcritical convective flows are seen to occur below the onset of stationary convection. Correlations are proposed to estimate the subcritical Rayleigh number for the onset of finite amplitude convection as a function of the fluid rheological parameters. Linear stability of the convective motion, predicted by the parallel flow approximation, is studied, and the onset of Hopf bifurcation, from steady convective flow to oscillatory behavior, is found to depend strongly on the rheological parameters. In general, Hopf bifurcation is triggered earlier as the fluid becomes more and more shear-thinning.

An Agitation Experiment with Multiple Aspects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, Jordan L.

2006-01-01

This paper describes a multifaceted agitation and mixing experiment. The relatively inexpensive apparatus includes a variable-speed stirrer motor, two polycarbonate tanks, and an instrumented torque table. Students measure torque as a function of stirrer speed, and use conductive tracer data to estimate two parameters of a flow model. The effect…

Advancing the Surveillance Capabilities of the Air Force’s Large-Aperature Telescopes

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-06

frozen flow screens.   Lastly, use of the FFM has the added benefit of requiring the estimation of significantly fewer parameters than a... FFM in the restoration process provides the decoding. This remains to be verified. Figure 14. Left: The mean diffraction-limited image for the

Effects of linking a soil-water-balance model with a groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanton, Jennifer S.; Ryter, Derek W.; Peterson, Steven M.

2013-01-01

A previously published regional groundwater-flow model in north-central Nebraska was sequentially linked with the recently developed soil-water-balance (SWB) model to analyze effects to groundwater-flow model parameters and calibration results. The linked models provided a more detailed spatial and temporal distribution of simulated recharge based on hydrologic processes, improvement of simulated groundwater-level changes and base flows at specific sites in agricultural areas, and a physically based assessment of the relative magnitude of recharge for grassland, nonirrigated cropland, and irrigated cropland areas. Root-mean-squared (RMS) differences between the simulated and estimated or measured target values for the previously published model and linked models were relatively similar and did not improve for all types of calibration targets. However, without any adjustment to the SWB-generated recharge, the RMS difference between simulated and estimated base-flow target values for the groundwater-flow model was slightly smaller than for the previously published model, possibly indicating that the volume of recharge simulated by the SWB code was closer to actual hydrogeologic conditions than the previously published model provided. Groundwater-level and base-flow hydrographs showed that temporal patterns of simulated groundwater levels and base flows were more accurate for the linked models than for the previously published model at several sites, particularly in agricultural areas.

Initial Parameter Estimation for Inverse Thermal Analysis of Ti-6Al-4V Deep Penetration Welds

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-16

theory, for the case of deep-penetration welding, is simulation of the coupling of keyhole formation, melting, fluid flow in the weld melt pool and...isothermal boundaires, e.g., TTB and TM. A specific procedure for interpolation, however, has not been considered. For the present study, the close ...Clarendon Press, Oxford, 2nd ed, 374, 1959. 19. R. Rai, J.W. Elmer, T.A. Palmer, T. DebRoy, Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow During Keyhole Mode Laser Welding

Derivation of Hunt equation for suspension distribution using Shannon entropy theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Snehasis

2017-12-01

In this study, the Hunt equation for computing suspension concentration in sediment-laden flows is derived using Shannon entropy theory. Considering the inverse of the void ratio as a random variable and using principle of maximum entropy, probability density function and cumulative distribution function of suspension concentration is derived. A new and more general cumulative distribution function for the flow domain is proposed which includes several specific other models of CDF reported in literature. This general form of cumulative distribution function also helps to derive the Rouse equation. The entropy based approach helps to estimate model parameters using suspension data of sediment concentration which shows the advantage of using entropy theory. Finally model parameters in the entropy based model are also expressed as functions of the Rouse number to establish a link between the parameters of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches.

Real Time Oil Reservoir Evaluation Using Nanotechnology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing (Inventor); Meyyappan, Meyya (Inventor)

2011-01-01

A method and system for evaluating status and response of a mineral-producing field (e.g., oil and/or gas) by monitoring selected chemical and physical properties in or adjacent to a wellsite headspace. Nanotechnology sensors and other sensors are provided for one or more underground (fluid) mineral-producing wellsites to determine presence/absence of each of two or more target molecules in the fluid, relative humidity, temperature and/or fluid pressure adjacent to the wellsite and flow direction and flow velocity for the fluid. A nanosensor measures an electrical parameter value and estimates a corresponding environmental parameter value, such as water content or hydrocarbon content. The system is small enough to be located down-hole in each mineral-producing horizon for the wellsite.

Indirect estimation of the Convective Lognormal Transfer function model parameters for describing solute transport in unsaturated and undisturbed soil.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Mohammad Hossein; Vanclooster, Marnik

2012-05-01

Solute transport in partially saturated soils is largely affected by fluid velocity distribution and pore size distribution within the solute transport domain. Hence, it is possible to describe the solute transport process in terms of the pore size distribution of the soil, and indirectly in terms of the soil hydraulic properties. In this paper, we present a conceptual approach that allows predicting the parameters of the Convective Lognormal Transfer model from knowledge of soil moisture and the Soil Moisture Characteristic (SMC), parameterized by means of the closed-form model of Kosugi (1996). It is assumed that in partially saturated conditions, the air filled pore volume act as an inert solid phase, allowing the use of the Arya et al. (1999) pragmatic approach to estimate solute travel time statistics from the saturation degree and SMC parameters. The approach is evaluated using a set of partially saturated transport experiments as presented by Mohammadi and Vanclooster (2011). Experimental results showed that the mean solute travel time, μ(t), increases proportionally with the depth (travel distance) and decreases with flow rate. The variance of solute travel time σ²(t) first decreases with flow rate up to 0.4-0.6 Ks and subsequently increases. For all tested BTCs predicted solute transport with μ(t) estimated from the conceptual model performed much better as compared to predictions with μ(t) and σ²(t) estimated from calibration of solute transport at shallow soil depths. The use of μ(t) estimated from the conceptual model therefore increases the robustness of the CLT model in predicting solute transport in heterogeneous soils at larger depths. In view of the fact that reasonable indirect estimates of the SMC can be made from basic soil properties using pedotransfer functions, the presented approach may be useful for predicting solute transport at field or watershed scales. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indirect estimation of the Convective Lognormal Transfer function model parameters for describing solute transport in unsaturated and undisturbed soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Mohammad Hossein; Vanclooster, Marnik

2012-05-01

Solute transport in partially saturated soils is largely affected by fluid velocity distribution and pore size distribution within the solute transport domain. Hence, it is possible to describe the solute transport process in terms of the pore size distribution of the soil, and indirectly in terms of the soil hydraulic properties. In this paper, we present a conceptual approach that allows predicting the parameters of the Convective Lognormal Transfer model from knowledge of soil moisture and the Soil Moisture Characteristic (SMC), parameterized by means of the closed-form model of Kosugi (1996). It is assumed that in partially saturated conditions, the air filled pore volume act as an inert solid phase, allowing the use of the Arya et al. (1999) pragmatic approach to estimate solute travel time statistics from the saturation degree and SMC parameters. The approach is evaluated using a set of partially saturated transport experiments as presented by Mohammadi and Vanclooster (2011). Experimental results showed that the mean solute travel time, μt, increases proportionally with the depth (travel distance) and decreases with flow rate. The variance of solute travel time σ2t first decreases with flow rate up to 0.4-0.6 Ks and subsequently increases. For all tested BTCs predicted solute transport with μt estimated from the conceptual model performed much better as compared to predictions with μt and σ2t estimated from calibration of solute transport at shallow soil depths. The use of μt estimated from the conceptual model therefore increases the robustness of the CLT model in predicting solute transport in heterogeneous soils at larger depths. In view of the fact that reasonable indirect estimates of the SMC can be made from basic soil properties using pedotransfer functions, the presented approach may be useful for predicting solute transport at field or watershed scales.

Approach to identifying pollutant source and matching flow field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liping, Pang; Yu, Zhang; Hongquan, Qu; Tao, Hu; Wei, Wang

2013-07-01

Accidental pollution events often threaten people's health and lives, and it is necessary to identify a pollutant source rapidly so that prompt actions can be taken to prevent the spread of pollution. But this identification process is one of the difficulties in the inverse problem areas. This paper carries out some studies on this issue. An approach using single sensor information with noise was developed to identify a sudden continuous emission trace pollutant source in a steady velocity field. This approach first compares the characteristic distance of the measured concentration sequence to the multiple hypothetical measured concentration sequences at the sensor position, which are obtained based on a source-three-parameter multiple hypotheses. Then we realize the source identification by globally searching the optimal values with the objective function of the maximum location probability. Considering the large amount of computation load resulting from this global searching, a local fine-mesh source search method based on priori coarse-mesh location probabilities is further used to improve the efficiency of identification. Studies have shown that the flow field has a very important influence on the source identification. Therefore, we also discuss the impact of non-matching flow fields with estimation deviation on identification. Based on this analysis, a method for matching accurate flow field is presented to improve the accuracy of identification. In order to verify the practical application of the above method, an experimental system simulating a sudden pollution process in a steady flow field was set up and some experiments were conducted when the diffusion coefficient was known. The studies showed that the three parameters (position, emission strength and initial emission time) of the pollutant source in the experiment can be estimated by using the method for matching flow field and source identification.

Inverse and forward modeling under uncertainty using MRE-based Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Rubin, Y.

2004-12-01

A stochastic inverse approach for subsurface characterization is proposed and applied to shallow vadose zone at a winery field site in north California and to a gas reservoir at the Ormen Lange field site in the North Sea. The approach is formulated in a Bayesian-stochastic framework, whereby the unknown parameters are identified in terms of their statistical moments or their probabilities. Instead of the traditional single-valued estimation /prediction provided by deterministic methods, the approach gives a probability distribution for an unknown parameter. This allows calculating the mean, the mode, and the confidence interval, which is useful for a rational treatment of uncertainty and its consequences. The approach also allows incorporating data of various types and different error levels, including measurements of state variables as well as information such as bounds on or statistical moments of the unknown parameters, which may represent prior information. To obtain minimally subjective prior probabilities required for the Bayesian approach, the principle of Minimum Relative Entropy (MRE) is employed. The approach is tested in field sites for flow parameters identification and soil moisture estimation in the vadose zone and for gas saturation estimation at great depth below the ocean floor. Results indicate the potential of coupling various types of field data within a MRE-based Bayesian formalism for improving the estimation of the parameters of interest.

Optical Flow Estimation for Flame Detection in Videos

PubMed Central

Mueller, Martin; Karasev, Peter; Kolesov, Ivan; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-01-01

Computational vision-based flame detection has drawn significant attention in the past decade with camera surveillance systems becoming ubiquitous. Whereas many discriminating features, such as color, shape, texture, etc., have been employed in the literature, this paper proposes a set of motion features based on motion estimators. The key idea consists of exploiting the difference between the turbulent, fast, fire motion, and the structured, rigid motion of other objects. Since classical optical flow methods do not model the characteristics of fire motion (e.g., non-smoothness of motion, non-constancy of intensity), two optical flow methods are specifically designed for the fire detection task: optimal mass transport models fire with dynamic texture, while a data-driven optical flow scheme models saturated flames. Then, characteristic features related to the flow magnitudes and directions are computed from the flow fields to discriminate between fire and non-fire motion. The proposed features are tested on a large video database to demonstrate their practical usefulness. Moreover, a novel evaluation method is proposed by fire simulations that allow for a controlled environment to analyze parameter influences, such as flame saturation, spatial resolution, frame rate, and random noise. PMID:23613042

Lateral and vertical heterogeneity of flow and suspended sediment characteristics during a dam flushing event, in high velocity conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoine, Germain; Cazilhac, Marine; Monnoyer, Quentin; Jodeau, Magali; Gratiot, Nicolas; Besnier, Anne-Laure; Henault, Fabien; Le Brun, Matthieu

2015-04-01

The dynamic of suspended sediments in highly turbulent and concentrated flow is an important issue to better predict the sediment propagation along mountain rivers. In such extreme environments, the spatial and temporal variability of hydraulic and sediment parameters are difficult to measure: the flow velocity and the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) could be high (respectively several m/s and g/l) and rapidly variable. Simple methods are commonly used to estimate water discharge and mean or punctual SSC. But no method has been used successfully in a mountain river to estimate during a whole event the spatial distribution of flow velocity and SSC, as well as sediment parameters like grain size or settling velocity into a river cross section. This leads to these two questions: in such conditions, can we calculate sediment fluxes with one sediment concentration measurement? How can we explain the spatial heterogeneity of sediment characteristics? In this study, we analyze sampled data from a very well instrumented river reach in the Northern French Alps: the Arc-Isère River system. This gravel-bed river system is characterized by large concentrations of fines sediments, coming from the highly erodible mountains around. To control the hydraulic, sedimentary and chemical parameters from the catchment head, several gauging stations have been established since 2006. Especially, several measurements are usually done during the flushing of the dams located on the upper part of the river. During the flushing event of June 2014, we instrumented the gauging station located just upstream the confluence between the Isere and the Arc River, at the outlet of the Arc River watershed. ADCP measurements have been performed to estimate the spatial distribution of the flow velocity (up to 3 m/s), and turbidimeters and automatic samplers have been used to estimate the spatial distribution of the SSC into the cross section (up to 6 g/l). These samples have been directly analyzed to measure the grain size distribution with a LISST Portable XR, as well as the settling velocities of the suspended sediments with the SCAF device (Wendling et al., 2013). Even if the measurements were difficult due to the flow conditions, some observations are relevant. For example, we observed a spatial heterogeneity of the settling velocity and the grain size of the suspended sediments into the cross section, whereas the SSC was almost homogeneous at the same time. In particular, these measurements show that the sediment flux can be calculated from the single turbidimeter located on the left bank. Moreover, the hydrodynamic measurements highlight the heterogeneity of the settling velocity due to the flow conditions. The first conclusions of these field measurements could be of great importance to assess numerical models, when they are used to estimate sediment deposits in river. V. WENDLING, N. GRATIOT, C. LEGOUT, I.G. DROPPO, A.J. MANNING, G. ANTOINE, H. MICHALLET, M. JODEAU : A rapid method for settling velocity and flocculation measurement within high suspended sediment concentration rivers. INTERCOH 2013, Gainesville, Florida.

Estimating rheological properties of lava flows using high-resolution time lapse imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, M. R.; Applegarth, L. J.; Pinkerton, H.; Fryer, T.

2011-12-01

During effusive eruptions, property and infrastructure can be threatened by lava flow inundation. In order to maximise the effectiveness of the response to such an event, it is necessary to be able to reliably forecast the area that will be affected. One of the major controls on the advance of a lava flow is its rheology, which is spatially and temporally variable, and depends on many underlying factors. Estimating the rheological properties of a lava flow, and the change in these over space and time is therefore of the utmost importance. Here we report estimates of rheological properties made from geometric and velocity measurements on integrated topographic and image data using the method of Ellis et al. (2004) (Ellis B, Wilson L & Pinkerton H (2004) Estimating the rheology of basaltic lava flows. Lunar & Planetary Science XXXV Abst. 1550). These are then compared to the viscosity predicted from composition and temperature by the GRD model (Giordano D, Russell JK, & Dingwell DB (2008) Viscosity of Magmatic Liquids: A Model. Earth & Planetary Science Letters, 271, 123-134). During the 13 May 2008 - 6 July 2009 eruption of Mt Etna, Sicily, lava flows were emplaced into the Valle del Bove, reaching a maximum length of >6 km. Towards the end of the eruption, multiple channelized aa flows were active simultaneously, reaching tens to hundreds of metres in length. Flow lifetimes were of the order hours to days. In the last month of the eruption, we installed a Canon EOS 450D camera at Pizzi Deneri, on the north side of the Valle del Bove, to collect visible images at 15-minute intervals. On one day, topographic data (using a Riegl LPM-321 terrestrial laser scanner) and thermal images (using a FLIR Thermacam S40) were also collected from this location. The fronts of some of the larger flows were tracked through the time lapse image sequence. Using knowledge of the camera imaging geometry, the pixel tracks were reprojected onto the topographic surface to determine flow advance in 3-D geographic coordinates. Integrating the tracking results with the topographic data allows flow lengths and velocities to be extracted. Using these parameters together with estimates of the flow width and thickness, we estimate effective yield strengths, apparent viscosities and Gratz numbers for the tracked flows. We then evaluate the success of this method using predicted viscosities from the GRD model of Giordano et al. (2008).

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1988-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the aquifer system near Calvert City, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J.J.; Arihood, L.D.; Rose, M.F.

1995-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Cabinet, constructed a two-dimensional, steady-state ground-water-flow model to estimate hydraulic properties, contributing areas to discharge boundaries, and the average linear velocity at selected locations in an aquifer system near Calvert City, Ky. Nonlinear regression was used to estimate values of model parameters and the reliability of the parameter estimates. The regression minimizes the weighted difference between observed and calculated hydraulic heads and rates of flow. The calibrated model generally was better than alternative models considered, and although adding transmissive faults in the bedrock produced a slightly better model, fault transmissivity was not estimated reliably. The average transmissivity of the aquifer was 20,000 feet squared per day. Recharge to two outcrop areas, the McNairy Formation of Cretaceous age and the alluvium of Quaternary age, were 0.00269 feet per day (11.8 inches per year) and 0.000484 feet per day (2.1 inches per year), respectively. Contributing areas to wells at the Calvert City Water Company in 1992 did not include the Calvert City Industrial Complex. Since completing the fieldwork for this study in 1992, the Calvert City Water Company discontinued use of their wells and began withdrawing water from new wells that were located 4.5 miles east-southeast of the previous location; the contributing area moved farther from the industrial complex. The extent of the alluvium contributing water to wells was limited by the overlying lacustrine deposits. The average linear ground-water velocity at the industrial complex ranged from 0.90 feet per day to 4.47 feet per day with a mean of 1.98 feet per day.

Regional scale impact of tidal forcing on groundwater flow in unconfined coastal aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauw, P. S.; Oude Essink, G. H. P.; Leijnse, A.; Vandenbohede, A.; Groen, J.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.

2014-09-01

This paper considers the impact of tidal forcing on regional groundwater flow in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Numerical models are used to quantify this impact for a wide range of hydrogeological conditions. Both a shallow and a deep aquifer are investigated with regard to three dimensionless parameter groups that determine the groundwater flow to a large extent. Analytical expressions are presented that allow for a quick estimate of the regional scale effect of tidal forcing under the same conditions as used in the numerical models. Quantitatively, the results in this paper are complementary to previous studies by taking into account variable density groundwater flow, dispersive salt transport and a seepage face in the intertidal area. Qualitatively, the results are in line with previous investigations. The time-averaged hydraulic head at the high tide mark increases upon a decrease of each of the three considered dimensionless parameter groups: R (including the ratio of the hydraulic conductivity and the precipitation excess), α (the slope of the intertidal area) and AL (the ratio of the width of the fresh water lens and the tidal amplitude). The relative change of the location and the hydraulic head of the groundwater divide, which together characterize regional groundwater flow, increase as α and AL decrease, but decrease as R decreases. The difference between the analytical solutions and numerical results is small. Therefore, the presented analytical solutions can be used to estimate the bias that is introduced in a numerical model if tidal forcing is neglected. The results should be used with caution in case of significant wave forcing, as this was not considered.

A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the St. Clair-Detroit River waterway in the Great Lakes basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Koschik, John A.

2002-01-01

The St. Clair–Detroit River Waterway connects Lake Huron with Lake Erie in the Great Lakes basin to form part of the international boundary between the United States and Canada. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is developed to compute flow velocities and water levels as part of a source-water assessment of public water intakes. The model, which uses the generalized finite-element code RMA2, discretizes the waterway into a mesh formed by 13,783 quadratic elements defined by 42,936 nodes. Seven steadystate scenarios are used to calibrate the model by adjusting parameters associated with channel roughness in 25 material zones in sub-areas of the waterway. An inverse modeling code is used to systematically adjust model parameters and to determine their associated uncertainty by use of nonlinear regression. Calibration results show close agreement between simulated and expected flows in major channels and water levels at gaging stations. Sensitivity analyses describe the amount of information available to estimate individual model parameters, and quantify the utility of flow measurements at selected cross sections and water-level measurements at gaging stations. Further data collection, model calibration analysis, and grid refinements are planned to assess and enhance two-dimensional flow simulation capabilities describing the horizontal flow distributions in St. Clair and Detroit Rivers and circulation patterns in Lake St. Clair.

The surface roughness effect on the performance of supersonic ejectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brezgin, D. V.; Aronson, K. E.; Mazzelli, F.; Milazzo, A.

2017-07-01

The paper presents the numerical simulation results of the surface roughness influence on gas-dynamic processes inside flow parts of a supersonic ejector. These simulations are performed using two commercial CFD solvers (Star- CCM+ and Fluent). The results are compared to each other and verified by a full-scale experiment in terms of global flow parameters (the entrainment ratio: the ratio between secondary to primary mass flow rate - ER hereafter) and local flow parameters distribution (the static pressure distribution along the mixing chamber and diffuser walls). A detailed comparative study of the employed methods and approaches in both CFD packages is carried out in order to estimate the roughness effect on the logarithmic law velocity distribution inside the boundary layer. Influence of the surface roughness is compared with the influence of the backpressure (static pressure at the ejector outlet). It has been found out that increasing either the ejector backpressure or the surface roughness height, the shock position displaces upstream. Moreover, the numerical simulation results of an ejector with rough walls in the both CFD solvers are well quantitatively agreed with each other in terms of the mean ER and well qualitatively agree in terms of the local flow parameters distribution. It is found out that in the case of exceeding the "critical roughness height" for the given boundary conditions and ejector's geometry, the ejector switches to the "off-design" mode and its performance decreases considerably.

Prediction of Scour Depth around Bridge Piers using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos; Zhang, Hanqing

2014-05-01

Earth's surface is continuously shaped due to the action of geophysical flows. Erosion due to the flow of water in river systems has been identified as a key problem in preserving ecological health of river systems but also a threat to our built environment and critical infrastructure, worldwide. As an example, it has been estimated that a major reason for bridge failure is due to scour. Even though the flow past bridge piers has been investigated both experimentally and numerically, and the mechanisms of scouring are relatively understood, there still lacks a tool that can offer fast and reliable predictions. Most of the existing formulas for prediction of bridge pier scour depth are empirical in nature, based on a limited range of data or for piers of specific shape. In this work, the application of a Machine Learning model that has been successfully employed in Water Engineering, namely an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is proposed to estimate the scour depth around bridge piers. In particular, various complexity architectures are sequentially built, in order to identify the optimal for scour depth predictions, using appropriate training and validation subsets obtained from the USGS database (and pre-processed to remove incomplete records). The model has five variables, namely the effective pier width (b), the approach velocity (v), the approach depth (y), the mean grain diameter (D50) and the skew to flow. Simulations are conducted with data groups (bed material type, pier type and shape) and different number of input variables, to produce reduced complexity and easily interpretable models. Analysis and comparison of the results indicate that the developed ANFIS model has high accuracy and outstanding generalization ability for prediction of scour parameters. The effective pier width (as opposed to skew to flow) is amongst the most relevant input parameters for the estimation.

DEVELOPMENT OF A POPULATION BALANCE MODEL TO SIMULATE FRACTIONATION OF GROUND SWITCHGRASS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naimi, L.J.; Bi, X.T.; Lau, A.K.

The population balance model represents a time-dependent formulation of mass conservation for a ground biomass that flows through a set of sieves. The model is suitable for predicting the change in size and distribution of ground biomass while taking into account the flow rate processes of particles through a grinder. This article describes the development and application of this model to a switchgrass grinding operation. The mass conservation formulation of the model contains two parameters: breakage rate and breakage ratio. A laboratory knife mill was modified to act as a batch or flow-through grinder. The ground switchgrass was analyzed overmore » a set of six Tyler sieves with apertures ranging from 5.66 mm (top sieve) to 1 mm (bottom sieve). The breakage rate was estimated from the sieving tests. For estimating the breakage ratio, each of the six fractions was further ground and sieved to 11 fractions on a set of sieves with apertures ranging from 5.66 to 0.25 mm (and pan). These data formed a matrix of values for determining the breakage ratio. Using the two estimated parameters, the transient population balance model was solved numerically. Results indicated that the population balance model generally underpredicted the fractions remaining on sieves with 5.66, 4.00, and 2.83 mm apertures and overpredicted fractions remaining on sieves with 2.00, 1.41, and 1.00 mm apertures. These trends were similar for both the batch and flow-through grinder configurations. The root mean square of residuals (RSE), representing the difference between experimental and simulated mass of fractions, was 0.32 g for batch grinding and 0.1 g for flow-through grinding. The breakage rate exhibited a linear function of the logarithm of particle size, with a regression coefficient of 0.99.« less

Parameter and observation importance in modelling virus transport in saturated porous media - Investigations in a homogenous system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, Gilbert R.; Hill, M.C.

2005-01-01

This paper evaluates the importance of seven types of parameters to virus transport: hydraulic conductivity, porosity, dispersivity, sorption rate and distribution coefficient (representing physical-chemical filtration), and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation (representing virus inactivation). The first three parameters relate to subsurface transport in general while the last four, the sorption rate, distribution coefficient, and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation rates, represent the interaction of viruses with the porous medium and their ability to persist. The importance of four types of observations to estimate the virus-transport parameters are evaluated: hydraulic heads, flow, temporal moments of conservative-transport concentrations, and virus concentrations. The evaluations are conducted using one- and two-dimensional homogeneous simulations, designed from published field experiments, and recently developed sensitivity-analysis methods. Sensitivity to the transport-simulation time-step size is used to evaluate the importance of numerical solution difficulties. Results suggest that hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and sorption are most important to virus-transport predictions. Most observation types provide substantial information about hydraulic conductivity and porosity; only virus-concentration observations provide information about sorption and inactivation. The observations are not sufficient to estimate these important parameters uniquely. Even with all observation types, there is extreme parameter correlation between porosity and hydraulic conductivity and between the sorption rate and in-solution inactivation. Parameter estimation was accomplished by fixing values of porosity and in-solution inactivation.

Parametric study of irradiation effects on the ductile damage and flow stress behavior in ferritic-martensitic steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Pritam; Biner, S. Bulent

2015-10-01

Ferritic-martensitic steels are currently being considered as structural materials in fusion and Gen-IV nuclear reactors. These materials are expected to experience high dose radiation, which can increase their ductile to brittle transition temperature and susceptibility to failure during operation. Hence, to estimate the safe operational life of the reactors, precise evaluation of the ductile to brittle transition temperatures of ferritic-martensitic steels is necessary. Owing to the scarcity of irradiated samples, particularly at high dose levels, micro-mechanistic models are being employed to predict the shifts in the ductile to brittle transition temperatures. These models consider the ductile damage evolution, in the form of nucleation, growth and coalescence of voids; and the brittle fracture, in the form of probabilistic cleavage initiation, to estimate the influence of irradiation on the ductile to brittle transition temperature. However, the assessment of irradiation dependent material parameters is challenging and influences the accuracy of these models. In the present study, the effects of irradiation on the overall flow stress and ductile damage behavior of two ferritic-martensitic steels is parametrically investigated. The results indicate that the ductile damage model parameters are mostly insensitive to irradiation levels at higher dose levels though the resulting flow stress behavior varies significantly.

Ocular Blood Flow in Rabbits under Deep Anesthesia: A Real-Time Measurement Technique and Its Application in Characterizing Retinal Ischemia.

PubMed

Bhatti, Mehwish Saba; Tang, Tong Boon; Chen, Hui Cheng

2018-04-09

In this study, we reported a new technique based on laser speckle flowgraphy to record the ocular blood flow in rabbits under deep anesthesia, and proposed parameters to characterize retinal ischemia. We applied the proposed technique to study the correlation of blood flow between the eyes of normal non-anesthetized animals, and to characterize the occlusion of the internal carotid artery (ICA) and external carotid artery (ECA). We established a correlation in blood flow between the eyes of non-anesthetized animals, and derived two new parameters, namely, the laterality index and vascular perfusion estimate (VPE). Our experimental results from 16 eyes (of 13 New Zealand white rabbits) showed a reduction in ocular blood flow with a significant decrease in the VPE after the occlusion of the ECA (p < 0.001). A low/minimal effect on blood flow was observed with the occlusion of the ICA. In conclusion, we demonstrated a means for the real-time measurement of the ocular blood flow in rabbits under deep anesthesia by using laser speckle flowgraphy and the VPE as an indicator of successful occlusion. The proposed technique might be applicable in quantifying the efficacy of new drugs and interventions for the treatment of retinal ischemia.

Mathematical modeling of pulsatile flow of non-Newtonian fluid in stenosed arteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankar, D. S.; Lee, Usik

2009-07-01

The pulsatile flow of blood through mild stenosed artery is studied. The effects of pulsatility, stenosis and non-Newtonian behavior of blood, treating the blood as Herschel-Bulkley fluid, are simultaneously considered. A perturbation method is used to analyze the flow. The expressions for the shear stress, velocity, flow rate, wall shear stress, longitudinal impedance and the plug core radius have been obtained. The variations of these flow quantities with different parameters of the fluid have been analyzed. It is found that, the plug core radius, pressure drop and wall shear stress increase with the increase of yield stress or the stenosis height. The velocity and the wall shear stress increase considerably with the increase in the amplitude of the pressure drop. It is clear that for a given value of stenosis height and for the increasing values of the stenosis shape parameter from 3 to 6, there is a sharp increase in the impedance of the flow and also the plots are skewed to the right-hand side. It is observed that the estimates of the increase in the longitudinal impedance increase with the increase of the axial distance or with the increase of the stenosis height. The present study also brings out the effects of asymmetric of the stenosis on the flow quantities.

Modeling two-phase flow in PEM fuel cell channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yun; Basu, Suman; Wang, Chao-Yang

2008-05-01

This paper is concerned with the simultaneous flow of liquid water and gaseous reactants in mini-channels of a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell. Envisaging the mini-channels as structured and ordered porous media, we develop a continuum model of two-phase channel flow based on two-phase Darcy's law and the M2 formalism, which allow estimate of the parameters key to fuel cell operation such as overall pressure drop and liquid saturation profiles along the axial flow direction. Analytical solutions of liquid water saturation and species concentrations along the channel are derived to explore the dependences of these physical variables vital to cell performance on operating parameters such as flow stoichiometric ratio and relative humility. The two-phase channel model is further implemented for three-dimensional numerical simulations of two-phase, multi-component transport in a single fuel-cell channel. Three issues critical to optimizing channel design and mitigating channel flooding in PEM fuel cells are fully discussed: liquid water buildup towards the fuel cell outlet, saturation spike in the vicinity of flow cross-sectional heterogeneity, and two-phase pressure drop. Both the two-phase model and analytical solutions presented in this paper may be applicable to more general two-phase flow phenomena through mini- and micro-channels.

Extracting a mix parameter from 2D radiography of variable density flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurien, Susan; Doss, Forrest; Livescu, Daniel

2017-11-01

A methodology is presented for extracting quantities related to the statistical description of the mixing state from the 2D radiographic image of a flow. X-ray attenuation through a target flow is given by the Beer-Lambert law which exponentially damps the incident beam intensity by a factor proportional to the density, opacity and thickness of the target. By making reasonable assumptions for the mean density, opacity and effective thickness of the target flow, we estimate the contribution of density fluctuations to the attenuation. The fluctuations thus inferred may be used to form the correlation of density and specific-volume, averaged across the thickness of the flow in the direction of the beam. This correlation function, denoted by b in RANS modeling, quantifies turbulent mixing in variable density flows. The scheme is tested using DNS data computed for variable-density buoyancy-driven mixing. We quantify the deficits in the extracted value of b due to target thickness, Atwood number, and modeled noise in the incident beam. This analysis corroborates the proposed scheme to infer the mix parameter from thin targets at moderate to low Atwood numbers. The scheme is then applied to an image of counter-shear flow obtained from experiments at the National Ignition Facility. US Department of Energy.

Multiparameter Analysis of Gas Transport Phenomena in Shale Gas Reservoirs: Apparent Permeability Characterization.

PubMed

Shen, Yinghao; Pang, Yu; Shen, Ziqi; Tian, Yuanyuan; Ge, Hongkui

2018-02-08

The large amount of nanoscale pores in shale results in the inability to apply Darcy's law. Moreover, the gas adsorption of shale increases the complexity of pore size characterization and thus decreases the accuracy of flow regime estimation. In this study, an apparent permeability model, which describes the adsorptive gas flow behavior in shale by considering the effects of gas adsorption, stress dependence, and non-Darcy flow, is proposed. The pore size distribution, methane adsorption capacity, pore compressibility, and matrix permeability of the Barnett and Eagle Ford shales are measured in the laboratory to determine the critical parameters of gas transport phenomena. The slip coefficients, tortuosity, and surface diffusivity are predicted via the regression analysis of the permeability data. The results indicate that the apparent permeability model, which considers second-order gas slippage, Knudsen diffusion, and surface diffusion, could describe the gas flow behavior in the transition flow regime for nanoporous shale. Second-order gas slippage and surface diffusion play key roles in the gas flow in nanopores for Knudsen numbers ranging from 0.18 to 0.5. Therefore, the gas adsorption and non-Darcy flow effects, which involve gas slippage, Knudsen diffusion, and surface diffusion, are indispensable parameters of the permeability model for shale.

A study to estimate the fate and transport of bacteria in river water from birds nesting under a bridge.

PubMed

Nayamatullah, M M M; Bin-Shafique, S; Sharif, H O

2013-01-01

To investigate the effect of input parameters, such as the number of bridge-dwelling birds, decay rate of the bacteria, flow at the river, water temperature, and settling velocity, a parametric study was conducted using a water quality model developed with QUAL2Kw. The reach of the bacterial-impaired section from the direct droppings of bridge-nesting birds at the Guadalupe River near Kerrville, Texas was estimated using the model. The concentration of Escherichia coli bacteria were measured upstream, below the bridge, and downstream of the river for one-and-a-half years. The decay rate of the indicator bacteria in the river water was estimated from the model using measured data, and was found to be 6.5/day. The study suggests that the number of bridge-dwelling birds, the decay rate, and flow at the river have the highest impact on the fate and transport of bacteria. The water temperature moderately affects the fate and transport of bacteria, whereas, the settling velocity of bacteria did not show any significant effect. Once the decay rates are estimated, the reach of the impaired section was predicted from the model using the average flow of the channel. Since the decay rate does not vary significantly in the ambient environment at this location, the length of the impaired section primarily depends on flow.

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

Correlation of Apollo oxygen tank thermodynamic performance predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, H. W.

1971-01-01

Parameters necessary to analyze the stratified performance of the Apollo oxygen tanks include g levels, tank elasticity, flow rates and pressurized volumes. Methods for estimating g levels and flow rates from flight plans prior to flight, and from quidance and system data for use in the post flight analysis are described. Equilibrium thermodynamic equations are developed for the effects of tank elasticity and pressurized volumes on the tank pressure response and their relative magnitudes are discussed. Correlations of tank pressures and heater temperatures from flight data with the results of a stratification model are shown. Heater temperatures were also estimated with empirical heat transfer agreement with flight data when fluid properties were averaged rather than evaluated at the mean film temperature.

User's Manual for Program PeakFQ, Annual Flood-Frequency Analysis Using Bulletin 17B Guidelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Kathleen M.; Kirby, William H.; Hummel, Paul R.

2006-01-01

Estimates of flood flows having given recurrence intervals or probabilities of exceedance are needed for design of hydraulic structures and floodplain management. Program PeakFQ provides estimates of instantaneous annual-maximum peak flows having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (annual-exceedance probabilities of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002, respectively). As implemented in program PeakFQ, the Pearson Type III frequency distribution is fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The parameters of the Pearson Type III frequency curve are estimated by the logarithmic sample moments (mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of skewness), with adjustments for low outliers, high outliers, historic peaks, and generalized skew. This documentation provides an overview of the computational procedures in program PeakFQ, provides a description of the program menus, and provides an example of the output from the program.

A Continuous Method for Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Palczewski, Michal; Beerli, Peter

2013-01-01

Most modern population genetics inference methods are based on the coalescence framework. Methods that allow estimating parameters of structured populations commonly insert migration events into the genealogies. For these methods the calculation of the coalescence probability density of a genealogy requires a product over all time periods between events. Data sets that contain populations with high rates of gene flow among them require an enormous number of calculations. A new method, transition probability-structured coalescence (TPSC), replaces the discrete migration events with probability statements. Because the speed of calculation is independent of the amount of gene flow, this method allows calculating the coalescence densities efficiently. The current implementation of TPSC uses an approximation simplifying the interaction among lineages. Simulations and coverage comparisons of TPSC vs. MIGRATE show that TPSC allows estimation of high migration rates more precisely, but because of the approximation the estimation of low migration rates is biased. The implementation of TPSC into programs that calculate quantities on phylogenetic tree structures is straightforward, so the TPSC approach will facilitate more general inferences in many computer programs. PMID:23666937

Measurement of Hydrologic Streamflow Metrics and Estimation of Streamflow with Lumped Parameter Models in a Managed Lake System, Sebago Lake, Maine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, A. S.; Martin, D.; Smith, S. M.

2013-12-01

Surface waters within the Sebago Lake watershed (southern Maine, USA) provide a variety of economically and intrinsically valuable recreational, commercial and environmental services. Different stakeholder groups for the 118 km2 Sebago Lake and surrounding watershed advocate for different lake and watershed management strategies, focusing on the operation of a dam at the outflow from Sebago Lake. While lake level in Sebago Lake has been monitored for over a century, limited data is available on the hydrologic processes that drive lake level and therefore impact how dam operation (and other changes to the region) will influence the hydroperiod of the lake. To fill this information gap several tasks were undertaken including: 1) deploying data logging pressure transducers to continuously monitor stream stage in nine tributaries, 2) measuring stream discharge at these sites to create rating curves for the nine tributaries, and using the resulting continuous discharge records to 3) calibrate lumped parameter computer models based on the GR4J model, modified to include a degree-day snowmelt routine. These lumped parameter models have been integrated with a simple lake water-balance model to estimate lake level and its response to different scenarios including dam management strategies. To date, about three years of stream stage data have been used to estimate stream discharge in all monitored tributaries (data collection is ongoing). Baseflow separation indices (BFI) for 2010 and 2011 using the USGS software PART and the Eckhart digital filter in WHAT range from 0.80-0.86 in the Crooked River and Richmill Outlet,followed by Northwest (0.75) and Muddy (0.53-0.56) Rivers, with the lowest BFI measured in Sticky River (0.41-0.56). The BFI values indicate most streams have significant groundwater (or other storage) inputs. The lumped parameter watershed model has been calibrated for four streams (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.4 to 0.9), with the other major tributaries containing hydraulic structures that are not included in the lumped parameter model. Calibrated watershed models tend to substantially underestimate the highest streamflows while overestimating low flows. An early June 2012 event caused extremely high flows with discharge in the Crooked River (the most significant tributary) peaking at about 85 m3/day. The lumped parameter model dramatically underestimated this important and anomalous event, but provided a reasonable prediction of flows throughout the rest of 2012. Ongoing work includes incorporating hydraulic structures in the lumped parameter model and using the available data to drive the lake water-balance model that has been prepared.

Challenges in the determination of the interstellar flow longitude from the pickup ion cutoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taut, A.; Berger, L.; Möbius, E.; Drews, C.; Heidrich-Meisner, V.; Keilbach, D.; Lee, M. A.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F.

2018-03-01

Context. The interstellar flow longitude corresponds to the Sun's direction of movement relative to the local interstellar medium. Thus, it constitutes a fundamental parameter for our understanding of the heliosphere and, in particular, its interaction with its surroundings, which is currently investigated by the Interstellar Boundary EXplorer (IBEX). One possibility to derive this parameter is based on pickup ions (PUIs) that are former neutral ions that have been ionized in the inner heliosphere. The neutrals enter the heliosphere as an interstellar wind from the direction of the Sun's movement against the partially ionized interstellar medium. PUIs carry information about the spatial variation of their neutral parent population (density and flow vector field) in their velocity distribution function. From the symmetry of the longitudinal flow velocity distribution, the interstellar flow longitude can be derived. Aim. The aim of this paper is to identify and eliminate systematic errors that are connected to this approach of measuring the interstellar flow longitude; we want to minimize any systematic influences on the result of this analysis and give a reasonable estimate for the uncertainty. Methods: We use He+ data measured by the PLAsma and SupraThermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) sensor on the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory Ahead (STEREO A) spacecraft. We analyze a recent approach, identify sources of systematic errors, and propose solutions to eliminate them. Furthermore, a method is introduced to estimate the error associated with this approach. Additionally, we investigate how the selection of interplanetary magnetic field angles, which is closely connected to the pickup ion velocity distribution function, affects the result for the interstellar flow longitude. Results: We find that the revised analysis used to address part of the expected systematic effects obtains significantly different results than presented in the previous study. In particular, the derived uncertainties are considerably larger. Furthermore, an unexpected systematic trend of the resulting interstellar flow longitude with the selection of interplanetary magnetic field orientation is uncovered.

Flowing Hot or Cold: User-Friendly Computational Models of Terrestrial and Planetary Lava Channels and Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakimoto, S. E. H.

2016-12-01

Planetary volcanism has redefined what is considered volcanism. "Magma" now may be considered to be anything from the molten rock familiar at terrestrial volcanoes to cryovolcanic ammonia-water mixes erupted on an outer solar system moon. However, even with unfamiliar compositions and source mechanisms, we find familiar landforms such as volcanic channels, lakes, flows, and domes and thus a multitude of possibilities for modeling. As on Earth, these landforms lend themselves to analysis for estimating storage, eruption and/or flow rates. This has potential pitfalls, as extension of the simplified analytic models we often use for terrestrial features into unfamiliar parameter space might yield misleading results. Our most commonly used tools for estimating flow and cooling have tended to lag significantly behind state-of-the-art; the easiest methods to use are neither realistic or accurate, but the more realistic and accurate computational methods are not simple to use. Since the latter computational tools tend to be both expensive and require a significant learning curve, there is a need for a user-friendly approach that still takes advantage of their accuracy. One method is use of the computational package for generation of a server-based tool that allows less computationally inclined users to get accurate results over their range of input parameters for a given problem geometry. A second method is to use the computational package for the generation of a polynomial empirical solution for each class of flow geometry that can be fairly easily solved by anyone with a spreadsheet. In this study, we demonstrate both approaches for several channel flow and lava lake geometries with terrestrial and extraterrestrial examples and compare their results. Specifically, we model cooling rectangular channel flow with a yield strength material, with applications to Mauna Loa, Kilauea, Venus, and Mars. This approach also shows promise with model applications to lava lakes, magma flow through cracks, and volcanic dome formation.

Quantitative framework for preferential flow initiation and partitioning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nimmo, John R.

2016-01-01

A model for preferential flow in macropores is based on the short-range spatial distribution of soil matrix infiltrability. It uses elementary areas at two different scales. One is the traditional representative elementary area (REA), which includes a sufficient heterogeneity to typify larger areas, as for measuring field-scale infiltrability. The other, called an elementary matrix area (EMA), is smaller, but large enough to represent the local infiltrability of soil matrix material, between macropores. When water is applied to the land surface, each EMA absorbs water up to the rate of its matrix infiltrability. Excess water flows into a macropore, becoming preferential flow. The land surface then can be represented by a mesoscale (EMA-scale) distribution of matrix infiltrabilities. Total preferential flow at a given depth is the sum of contributions from all EMAs. Applying the model, one case study with multi-year field measurements of both preferential and diffuse fluxes at a specific depth was used to obtain parameter values by inverse calculation. The results quantify the preferential–diffuse partition of flow from individual storms that differed in rainfall amount, intensity, antecedent soil water, and other factors. Another case study provided measured values of matrix infiltrability to estimate parameter values for comparison and illustrative predictions. These examples give a self-consistent picture from the combination of parameter values, directions of sensitivities, and magnitudes of differences caused by different variables. One major practical use of this model is to calculate the dependence of preferential flow on climate-related factors, such as varying soil wetness and rainfall intensity.

[Microcytomorphometric video-image detection of nuclear chromatin in ovarian cancer].

PubMed

Grzonka, Dariusz; Kamiński, Kazimierz; Kaźmierczak, Wojciech

2003-09-01

Technology of detection of tissue preparates precisious evaluates contents of nuclear chromatine, largeness and shape of cellular nucleus, indicators of mitosis, DNA index, ploidy, phase-S fraction and other parameters. Methods of detection of picture are: microcytomorphometry video-image (MCMM-VI), flow, double flow and activated by fluorescence. Diagnostic methods of malignant neoplasm of ovary are still nonspecific and not precise, that is a reason of unsatisfied results of treatment. Evaluation of microcytomorphometric measurements of nuclear chromatine histopathologic tissue preparates (HP) of ovarian cancer and comparison to normal ovarian tissue. Estimated 10 paraffin embedded tissue preparates of serous ovarian cancer, 4 preparates mucinous cancer and 2 cases of tumor Kruckenberg patients operated in Clinic of Perinatology and Gynaecology Silesian Medical Academy in Zabrze in period 2001-2002, MCMM-VI estimation based on computer aided analysis system: microscope Axioscop 20, camera tv JVCTK-C 1380, CarlZeiss KS Vision 400 rel.3.0 software. Following MCMM-VI parameters assessed: count of pathologic nucleus, diameter of nucleus, area, min/max diameter ratio, equivalent circle diameter (Dcircle), mean of brightness (mean D), integrated optical density (IOD = area x mean D), DNA index and 2.5 c exceeding rate percentage (2.5 c ER%). MCMM-VI performed on the 160 areas of 16 preparates of cancer and 100 areas of normal ovarian tissue. Statistical analysis was performed by used t-Student test. We obtained stastistically significant higher values parameters of nuclear chromatine, DI, 2.5 c ER of mucinous cancer and tumor Kruckenberg comparison to serous cancer. MCMM-VI parameters of chromatine malignant ovarian neoplasm were statistically significantly higher than normal ovarian tissue. Cytometric and karyometric parametres of nuclear chromatine estimated MCMM-VI are useful in the diagnostics and prognosis of ovarian cancer.

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 High Park Burn Area near Fort Collins, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Elliott, John G.

2012-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 High Park fire near Fort Collins in Larimer County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and to estimate the same for 44 selected drainage basins along State Highway 14 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (25 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (43 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (51 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities along the drainage network and throughout the drainage basins of interest ranged from 1 to 84 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; from 2 to 95 percent in response to the 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; and from 3 to 97 in response to the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the eastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Estimated debris-flow volumes range from a low of 1,600 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce substantial volumes of material. The predicted probabilities and some of the volumes predicted for the modeled storms indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow impacts on structures, roads, bridges, and culverts located both within and immediately downstream from the burned area. Colorado State Highway 14 is also susceptible to impacts from debris flows.

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

A new zonation algorithm with parameter estimation using hydraulic head and subsidence observations.

PubMed

Zhang, Meijing; Burbey, Thomas J; Nunes, Vitor Dos Santos; Borggaard, Jeff

2014-01-01

Parameter estimation codes such as UCODE_2005 are becoming well-known tools in groundwater modeling investigations. These programs estimate important parameter values such as transmissivity (T) and aquifer storage values (Sa ) from known observations of hydraulic head, flow, or other physical quantities. One drawback inherent in these codes is that the parameter zones must be specified by the user. However, such knowledge is often unknown even if a detailed hydrogeological description is available. To overcome this deficiency, we present a discrete adjoint algorithm for identifying suitable zonations from hydraulic head and subsidence measurements, which are highly sensitive to both elastic (Sske) and inelastic (Sskv) skeletal specific storage coefficients. With the advent of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), distributed spatial and temporal subsidence measurements can be obtained. A synthetic conceptual model containing seven transmissivity zones, one aquifer storage zone and three interbed zones for elastic and inelastic storage coefficients were developed to simulate drawdown and subsidence in an aquifer interbedded with clay that exhibits delayed drainage. Simulated delayed land subsidence and groundwater head data are assumed to be the observed measurements, to which the discrete adjoint algorithm is called to create approximate spatial zonations of T, Sske , and Sskv . UCODE-2005 is then used to obtain the final optimal parameter values. Calibration results indicate that the estimated zonations calculated from the discrete adjoint algorithm closely approximate the true parameter zonations. This automation algorithm reduces the bias established by the initial distribution of zones and provides a robust parameter zonation distribution. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

An expert system for diagnostics and estimation of steam turbine components condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murmansky, B. E.; Aronson, K. E.; Brodov, Yu. M.

2017-11-01

The report describes an expert system of probability type for diagnostics and state estimation of steam turbine technological subsystems components. The expert system is based on Bayes’ theorem and permits to troubleshoot the equipment components, using expert experience, when there is a lack of baseline information on the indicators of turbine operation. Within a unified approach the expert system solves the problems of diagnosing the flow steam path of the turbine, bearings, thermal expansion system, regulatory system, condensing unit, the systems of regenerative feed-water and hot water heating. The knowledge base of the expert system for turbine unit rotors and bearings contains a description of 34 defects and of 104 related diagnostic features that cause a change in its vibration state. The knowledge base for the condensing unit contains 12 hypotheses and 15 evidence (indications); the procedures are also designated for 20 state parameters estimation. Similar knowledge base containing the diagnostic features and faults hypotheses are formulated for other technological subsystems of turbine unit. With the necessary initial information available a number of problems can be solved within the expert system for various technological subsystems of steam turbine unit: for steam flow path it is the correlation and regression analysis of multifactor relationship between the vibration parameters variations and the regime parameters; for system of thermal expansions it is the evaluation of force acting on the longitudinal keys depending on the temperature state of the turbine cylinder; for condensing unit it is the evaluation of separate effect of the heat exchange surface contamination and of the presence of air in condenser steam space on condenser thermal efficiency performance, as well as the evaluation of term for condenser cleaning and for tube system replacement and so forth. With a lack of initial information the expert system enables to formulate a diagnosis, calculating the probability of faults hypotheses, given the degree of the expert confidence in estimation of turbine components operation parameters.

An extended continuous estimation of distribution algorithm for solving the permutation flow-shop scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Zhongshi; Pi, Dechang; Shao, Weishi

2017-11-01

This article proposes an extended continuous estimation of distribution algorithm (ECEDA) to solve the permutation flow-shop scheduling problem (PFSP). In ECEDA, to make a continuous estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) suitable for the PFSP, the largest order value rule is applied to convert continuous vectors to discrete job permutations. A probabilistic model based on a mixed Gaussian and Cauchy distribution is built to maintain the exploration ability of the EDA. Two effective local search methods, i.e. revolver-based variable neighbourhood search and Hénon chaotic-based local search, are designed and incorporated into the EDA to enhance the local exploitation. The parameters of the proposed ECEDA are calibrated by means of a design of experiments approach. Simulation results and comparisons based on some benchmark instances show the efficiency of the proposed algorithm for solving the PFSP.

An entropy-based method for determining the flow depth distribution in natural channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moramarco, Tommaso; Corato, Giovanni; Melone, Florisa; Singh, Vijay P.

2013-08-01

A methodology for determining the bathymetry of river cross-sections during floods by the sampling of surface flow velocity and existing low flow hydraulic data is developed . Similar to Chiu (1988) who proposed an entropy-based velocity distribution, the flow depth distribution in a cross-section of a natural channel is derived by entropy maximization. The depth distribution depends on one parameter, whose estimate is straightforward, and on the maximum flow depth. Applying to a velocity data set of five river gage sites, the method modeled the flow area observed during flow measurements and accurately assessed the corresponding discharge by coupling the flow depth distribution and the entropic relation between mean velocity and maximum velocity. The methodology unfolds a new perspective for flow monitoring by remote sensing, considering that the two main quantities on which the methodology is based, i.e., surface flow velocity and flow depth, might be potentially sensed by new sensors operating aboard an aircraft or satellite.

Inverse modeling for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Insights about parameter sensitivities, variances, correlations and estimation procedures derived from the Henry problem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanz, E.; Voss, C.I.

2006-01-01

Inverse modeling studies employing data collected from the classic Henry seawater intrusion problem give insight into several important aspects of inverse modeling of seawater intrusion problems and effective measurement strategies for estimation of parameters for seawater intrusion. Despite the simplicity of the Henry problem, it embodies the behavior of a typical seawater intrusion situation in a single aquifer. Data collected from the numerical problem solution are employed without added noise in order to focus on the aspects of inverse modeling strategies dictated by the physics of variable-density flow and solute transport during seawater intrusion. Covariances of model parameters that can be estimated are strongly dependent on the physics. The insights gained from this type of analysis may be directly applied to field problems in the presence of data errors, using standard inverse modeling approaches to deal with uncertainty in data. Covariance analysis of the Henry problem indicates that in order to generally reduce variance of parameter estimates, the ideal places to measure pressure are as far away from the coast as possible, at any depth, and the ideal places to measure concentration are near the bottom of the aquifer between the center of the transition zone and its inland fringe. These observations are located in and near high-sensitivity regions of system parameters, which may be identified in a sensitivity analysis with respect to several parameters. However, both the form of error distribution in the observations and the observation weights impact the spatial sensitivity distributions, and different choices for error distributions or weights can result in significantly different regions of high sensitivity. Thus, in order to design effective sampling networks, the error form and weights must be carefully considered. For the Henry problem, permeability and freshwater inflow can be estimated with low estimation variance from only pressure or only concentration observations. Permeability, freshwater inflow, solute molecular diffusivity, and porosity can be estimated with roughly equivalent confidence using observations of only the logarithm of concentration. Furthermore, covariance analysis allows a logical reduction of the number of estimated parameters for ill-posed inverse seawater intrusion problems. Ill-posed problems may exhibit poor estimation convergence, have a non-unique solution, have multiple minima, or require excessive computational effort, and the condition often occurs when estimating too many or co-dependent parameters. For the Henry problem, such analysis allows selection of the two parameters that control system physics from among all possible system parameters. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Documentation of a groundwater flow model developed to assess groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Monti, Jr., Jack; Nardi, Mark R.; Finkelstein, Jason S.

2016-08-31

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater flow model for the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability of the area and included an evaluation of how these resources have changed over time from stresses related to human uses and climate trends. The assessment was necessary because of the substantial dependency on groundwater for agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs in this area.The three-dimensional, groundwater flow model developed for this investigation used the numerical code MODFLOW–NWT to represent changes in groundwater pumping and aquifer recharge from predevelopment (before 1900) to future conditions, from 1900 to 2058. The model was constructed using existing hydrogeologic and geospatial information to represent the aquifer system geometry, boundaries, and hydraulic properties of the 19 separate regional aquifers and confining units within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation (PEST) technique.The parameter estimation process was achieved through history matching, using observations of heads and flows for both steady-state and transient conditions. A total of 8,868 annual water-level observations from 644 wells from 1986 to 2008 were combined into 29 water-level observation groups that were chosen to focus the history matching on specific hydrogeologic units in geographic areas in which distinct geologic and hydrologic conditions were observed. In addition to absolute water-level elevations, the water-level differences between individual measurements were also included in the parameter estimation process to remove the systematic bias caused by missing hydrologic stresses prior to 1986. The total average residual of –1.7 feet was normally distributed for all head groups, indicating minimal bias. The average absolute residual value of 12.3 feet is about 3 percent of the total observed water-level range throughout the aquifer system.Streamflow observation data of base flow conditions were derived for 153 sites from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset Plus and National Water Information System. An average residual of about –8 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 21 cubic feet per second for a range of computed base flows of about 417 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 122 sites from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus. An average residual of about 10 cubic feet per second and an average absolute residual of about 34 cubic feet per second were calculated for the 568 flow measurements in the 31 sites obtained from the National Water Information System for a range in computed base flows of about 1,141 cubic feet per second.The numerical representation of the hydrogeologic information used in the development of this regional flow model was dependent upon how the aquifer system and simulated hydrologic stresses were discretized in space and time. Lumping hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale.

Estimation of local scale dispersion from local breakthrough curves during a tracer test in a heterogeneous aquifer: the Lagrangian approach.

PubMed

Vanderborght, Jan; Vereecken, Harry

2002-01-01

The local scale dispersion tensor, Dd, is a controlling parameter for the dilution of concentrations in a solute plume that is displaced by groundwater flow in a heterogeneous aquifer. In this paper, we estimate the local scale dispersion from time series or breakthrough curves, BTCs, of Br concentrations that were measured at several points in a fluvial aquifer during a natural gradient tracer test at Krauthausen. Locally measured BTCs were characterized by equivalent convection dispersion parameters: equivalent velocity, v(eq)(x) and expected equivalent dispersivity, [lambda(eq)(x)]. A Lagrangian framework was used to approximately predict these equivalent parameters in terms of the spatial covariance of log(e) transformed conductivity and the local scale dispersion coefficient. The approximate Lagrangian theory illustrates that [lambda(eq)(x)] increases with increasing travel distance and is much larger than the local scale dispersivity, lambda(d). A sensitivity analysis indicates that [lambda(eq)(x)] is predominantly determined by the transverse component of the local scale dispersion and by the correlation scale of the hydraulic conductivity in the transverse to flow direction whereas it is relatively insensitive to the longitudinal component of the local scale dispersion. By comparing predicted [lambda(eq)(x)] for a range of Dd values with [lambda(eq)(x)] obtained from locally measured BTCs, the transverse component of Dd, DdT, was estimated. The estimated transverse local scale dispersivity, lambda(dT) = DdT/U1 (U1 = mean advection velocity) is in the order of 10(1)-10(2) mm, which is relatively large but realistic for the fluvial gravel sediments at Krauthausen.

Estimation and correction of different flavors of surface observation biases in ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Hacker, Josua P.; Collins, Nancy; Lee, Jared A.

2017-04-01

The impact of assimilating surface observations has been shown in several publications, for improving weather prediction inside of the boundary layer as well as the flow aloft. However, the assimilation of surface observations is often far from optimal due to the presence of both model and observation biases. The sources of these biases can be diverse: an instrumental offset, errors associated to the comparison of point-based observations and grid-cell average, etc. To overcome this challenge, a method was developed using the ensemble Kalman filter. The approach consists on representing each observation bias as a parameter. These bias parameters are added to the forward operator and they extend the state vector. As opposed to the observation bias estimation approaches most common in operational systems (e.g. for satellite radiances), the state vector and parameters are simultaneously updated by applying the Kalman filter equations to the augmented state. The method to estimate and correct the observation bias is evaluated using observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. OSSEs are constructed for the conventional observation network including radiosondes, aircraft observations, atmospheric motion vectors, and surface observations. Three different kinds of biases are added to 2-meter temperature for synthetic METARs. From the simplest to more sophisticated, imposed biases are: (1) a spatially invariant bias, (2) a spatially varying bias proportional to topographic height differences between the model and the observations, and (3) bias that is proportional to the temperature. The target region characterized by complex terrain is the western U.S. on a domain with 30-km grid spacing. Observations are assimilated every 3 hours using an 80-member ensemble during September 2012. Results demonstrate that the approach is able to estimate and correct the bias when it is spatially invariant (experiment 1). More complex bias structure in experiments (2) and (3) are more difficult to estimate, but still possible. Estimated the parameter in experiments with unbiased observations results in spatial and temporal parameter variability about zero, and establishes a threshold on the accuracy of the parameter in further experiments. When the observations are biased, the mean parameter value is close to the true bias, but temporal and spatial variability in the parameter estimates is similar to the parameters used when estimating a zero bias in the observations. The distributions are related to other errors in the forecasts, indicating that the parameters are absorbing some of the forecast error from other sources. In this presentation we elucidate the reasons for the resulting parameter estimates, and their variability.

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

A Parallel Stochastic Framework for Reservoir Characterization and History Matching

DOE PAGES

Thomas, Sunil G.; Klie, Hector M.; Rodriguez, Adolfo A.; ...

2011-01-01

The spatial distribution of parameters that characterize the subsurface is never known to any reasonable level of accuracy required to solve the governing PDEs of multiphase flow or species transport through porous media. This paper presents a numerically cheap, yet efficient, accurate and parallel framework to estimate reservoir parameters, for example, medium permeability, using sensor information from measurements of the solution variables such as phase pressures, phase concentrations, fluxes, and seismic and well log data. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the method.

Analysis of Partitioned Methods for the Biot System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bukac, Martina; Layton, William; Moraiti, Marina

2015-02-18

In this work, we present a comprehensive study of several partitioned methods for the coupling of flow and mechanics. We derive energy estimates for each method for the fully-discrete problem. We write the obtained stability conditions in terms of a key control parameter defined as a ratio of the coupling strength and the speed of propagation. Depending on the parameters in the problem, give the choice of the partitioned method which allows the largest time step. (C) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Novel Statistical Analysis and Interpretation of Flow Cytometry Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-31

the resulting residuals appear random. In the work that follows, I∗ = 200. The values of B and b̂j are known from the experiment. Notice that the...conjunction with the model parameter vector in a two- stage process. Unfortunately two- stage estimation may cause some parameters of the mathematical model to...information theoretic criteria such as Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). From (4.3), it follows that the scaled residuals rjk = λjI[n̂](tj , zk; ~q

Parameter estimation method and updating of regional prediction equations for ungaged sites in the desert region of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is currently updating at-site flood frequency estimates for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the desert region of California. The at-site flood-frequency analysis is complicated by short record lengths (less than 20 years is common) and numerous zero flows/low outliers at many sites. Estimates of the three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) required for fitting the log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution are likely to be highly unreliable based on the limited and heavily censored at-site data. In a generalization of the recommendations in Bulletin 17B, a regional analysis was used to develop regional estimates of all three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) of the LP3 distribution. A regional skew value of zero from a previously published report was used with a new estimated mean squared error (MSE) of 0.20. A weighted least squares (WLS) regression method was used to develop both a regional standard deviation and a mean model based on annual peak-discharge data for 33 USGS stations throughout California’s desert region. At-site standard deviation and mean values were determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) method for fitting the LP3 distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. Additionally, a multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) test, a generalization of the test recommended in Bulletin 17B, was used for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in a flood series. The WLS regression found that no basin characteristics could explain the variability of standard deviation. Consequently, a constant regional standard deviation model was selected, resulting in a log-space value of 0.91 with a MSE of 0.03 log units. Yet drainage area was found to be statistically significant at explaining the site-to-site variability in mean. The linear WLS regional mean model based on drainage area had a Pseudo- 2 R of 51 percent and a MSE of 0.32 log units. The regional parameter estimates were then used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins. The final equations are functions of drainage area.Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 214.2 to 856.2 percent.

Modeling Methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

2010-01-01

Simulation models are widely used in all types of hydrologic studies, and many of these models can be used to estimate recharge. Models can provide important insight into the functioning of hydrologic systems by identifying factors that influence recharge. The predictive capability of models can be used to evaluate how changes in climate, water use, land use, and other factors may affect recharge rates. Most hydrological simulation models, including watershed models and groundwater-flow models, are based on some form of water-budget equation, so the material in this chapter is closely linked to that in Chapter 2. Empirical models that are not based on a water-budget equation have also been used for estimating recharge; these models generally take the form of simple estimation equations that define annual recharge as a function of precipitation and possibly other climatic data or watershed characteristics.Model complexity varies greatly. Some models are simple accounting models; others attempt to accurately represent the physics of water movement through each compartment of the hydrologic system. Some models provide estimates of recharge explicitly; for example, a model based on the Richards equation can simulate water movement from the soil surface through the unsaturated zone to the water table. Recharge estimates can be obtained indirectly from other models. For example, recharge is a parameter in groundwater-flow models that solve for hydraulic head (i.e. groundwater level). Recharge estimates can be obtained through a model calibration process in which recharge and other model parameter values are adjusted so that simulated water levels agree with measured water levels. The simulation that provides the closest agreement is called the best fit, and the recharge value used in that simulation is the model-generated estimate of recharge.

Evaluating the Controls on Magma Ascent Rates Through Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, M. E.; Neuberg, J. W.

2015-12-01

The estimation of the magma ascent rate is a key factor in predicting styles of volcanic activity and relies on the understanding of how strongly the ascent rate is controlled by different magmatic parameters. The ability to link potential changes in such parameters to monitoring data is an essential step to be able to use these data as a predictive tool. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models that assess the influence of individual model parameters such as the magmatic water content, temperature or bulk magma composition on the magma flow in the conduit during an extrusive dome eruption. By systematically varying these parameters we assess their relative importance to changes in ascent rate. The results indicate that potential changes to conduit geometry and excess pressure in the magma chamber are amongst the dominant controlling variables that effect ascent rate, but the single most important parameter is the volatile content (assumed in this case as only water). Modelling this parameter across a range of reported values causes changes in the calculated ascent velocities of up to 800%, triggering fluctuations in ascent rates that span the potential threshold between effusive and explosive eruptions.

Precession of the Earth as the Cause of Geomagnetism: Experiments lend support to the proposal that precessional torques drive the earth's dynamo.

PubMed

Malkus, W V

1968-04-19

I have proposed that the precessional torques acting on the earth can sustain a turbulent hydromagnetic flow in the molten core. A gross balance of the Coriolis force, the Lorentz force, and the precessional force in the core fluid provided estimates of the fluid velocity and the interior magnetic field characteristic of such flow. Then these numbers and a balance of the processes responsible for the decay and regeneration of the magnetic field provided an estimate of the magnetic field external to the core. This external field is in keeping with the observations, but its value is dependent upon the speculative value for the electrical conductivity of core material. The proposal that turbulent flow due to precession can occur in the core was tested in a study of nonmagnetic laboratory flows induced by the steady precession of fluid-filled rotating spheroids. It was found that these flows exhibit both small wavelike instabilities and violent finite-amplitude instability to turbulent motion above critical values of the precession rate. The observed critical parameters indicate that a laminar flow in the core, due to the earth's precession, would have weak hydrodynamic instabilities at most, but that finite-amplitude hydromagnetic instability could lead to fully turbulent flow.

Computational approach to estimating the effects of blood properties on changes in intra-stent flow.

PubMed

Benard, Nicolas; Perrault, Robert; Coisne, Damien

2006-08-01

In this study various blood rheological assumptions are numerically investigated for the hemodynamic properties of intra-stent flow. Non-newtonian blood properties have never been implemented in blood coronary stented flow investigation, although its effects appear essential for a correct estimation and distribution of wall shear stress (WSS) exerted by the fluid on the internal vessel surface. Our numerical model is based on a full 3D stent mesh. Rigid wall and stationary inflow conditions are applied. Newtonian behavior, non-newtonian model based on Carreau-Yasuda relation and a characteristic newtonian value defined with flow representative parameters are introduced in this research. Non-newtonian flow generates an alteration of near wall viscosity norms compared to newtonian. Maximal WSS values are located in the center part of stent pattern structure and minimal values are focused on the proximal stent wire surface. A flow rate increase emphasizes fluid perturbations, and generates a WSS rise except for interstrut area. Nevertheless, a local quantitative analysis discloses an underestimation of WSS for modelisation using a newtonian blood flow, with clinical consequence of overestimate restenosis risk area. Characteristic viscosity introduction appears to present a useful option compared to rheological modelisation based on experimental data, with computer time gain and relevant results for quantitative and qualitative WSS determination.

Cosmic Bulk Flow and the Local Motion from Cosmicflows-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courtois, Helene M.; Hoffman, Yehuda; Tully, R. Brent

2015-08-01

Full sky surveys of peculiar velocity are arguably the best way to map the large scale structure out to distances of a few times 100 Mpc/h.Using the largest and most accurate ever catalog of galaxy peculiar velocities Cosmicflows-2, the large scale structure has been reconstructed by means of the Wiener filter and constrained realizations assuming as a Bayesian prior model the LCDM standard model of cosmology. The present paper focuses on studying the bulk flow of the local flow field, defined as the mean velocity of top-hat spheres with radii ranging out to R=500 Mpc/h. Our main results is that the estimated bulk flow is consistent with the LCDM model with the WMAP inferred cosmological parameters. At R=50 (150)Mpc/h the estimated bulk velocity is 250 +/- 21 (239 +/- 38) km/s. The corresponding cosmic variance at these radii is 126 (60) km/s, which implies that these estimated bulk flows are dominated by the data and not by the assumed prior model. The estimated bulk velocity is dominated by the data out to R ˜200 Mpc/h, where the cosmic variance on the individual Supergalactic Cartesian components (of the r.m.s. values) exceeds the variance of the constrined realizations by at least a factor of 2. The SGX and SGY components of the CMB dipole velocity are recovered by the Wiener Filter velocity field down to a very few km/s. The SGZ component of the estimated velocity, the one that is most affected by the Zone of Avoidance, is off by 126km/s (an almost 2 sigma discrepancy).The bulk velocity analysis reported here is virtually unaffected by the Malmquist bias and very similar results are obtained for the data with and without the bias correction.

The Optical Flow Technique on the Research of Solar Non-potentiality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ji-hong; Zhang, Hong-qi

2010-06-01

Several optical flow techniques, which have being applied to the researches of solar magnetic non-potentiality recently, have been summarized here. And a few new non-potential parameters which can be derived from them have been discussed, too. The main components of the work are presented as follows: (1) The optical flow techniques refers to a series of new image analyzing techniques arisen recently on the researches of solar magnetic non-potentiality. They mainly include LCT (local correlation tracking), ILCT (inductive equation combining with LCT), MEF (minimum energy effect), DAVE (differential affine velocity estimator) and NAVE (nonlinear affine velocity estimator). Their calculating and applying conditions, merits and deficiencies, all have been discussed detailedly in this work. (2) Benefit from the optical flow techniques, the transverse velocity fields of the magnetic features on the solar surface may be determined by a time sequence of high-quality images currently produced by high-resolution observations either from the ground or in space. Consequently, several new non-potential parameters may be acquired, such as the magnetic helicity flux, the induced electric field in the photosphere, the non-potential magnetic stress (whose area integration is the Lorentz force), etc. Then we can determine the energy flux across the photosphere, and subsequently evaluate the energy budget. Former works on them by small or special samples have shown that they are probably related closely to the erupting events, such as flare, filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections.

Optimization of planar PIV-based pressure estimates in laminar and turbulent wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure, Jeffrey; Yarusevych, Serhiy

2017-05-01

The performance of four pressure estimation techniques using Eulerian material acceleration estimates from planar, two-component Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) data were evaluated in a bluff body wake. To allow for the ground truth comparison of the pressure estimates, direct numerical simulations of flow over a circular cylinder were used to obtain synthetic velocity fields. Direct numerical simulations were performed for Re_D = 100, 300, and 1575, spanning laminar, transitional, and turbulent wake regimes, respectively. A parametric study encompassing a range of temporal and spatial resolutions was performed for each Re_D. The effect of random noise typical of experimental velocity measurements was also evaluated. The results identified optimal temporal and spatial resolutions that minimize the propagation of random and truncation errors to the pressure field estimates. A model derived from linear error propagation through the material acceleration central difference estimators was developed to predict these optima, and showed good agreement with the results from common pressure estimation techniques. The results of the model are also shown to provide acceptable first-order approximations for sampling parameters that reduce error propagation when Lagrangian estimations of material acceleration are employed. For pressure integration based on planar PIV, the effect of flow three-dimensionality was also quantified, and shown to be most pronounced at higher Reynolds numbers downstream of the vortex formation region, where dominant vortices undergo substantial three-dimensional deformations. The results of the present study provide a priori recommendations for the use of pressure estimation techniques from experimental PIV measurements in vortex dominated laminar and turbulent wake flows.

A reduced order model based on Kalman filtering for sequential data assimilation of turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldi, M.; Poux, A.

2017-10-01

A Kalman filter based sequential estimator is presented in this work. The estimator is integrated in the structure of segregated solvers for the analysis of incompressible flows. This technique provides an augmented flow state integrating available observation in the CFD model, naturally preserving a zero-divergence condition for the velocity field. Because of the prohibitive costs associated with a complete Kalman Filter application, two model reduction strategies have been proposed and assessed. These strategies dramatically reduce the increase in computational costs of the model, which can be quantified in an augmentation of 10%- 15% with respect to the classical numerical simulation. In addition, an extended analysis of the behavior of the numerical model covariance Q has been performed. Optimized values are strongly linked to the truncation error of the discretization procedure. The estimator has been applied to the analysis of a number of test cases exhibiting increasing complexity, including turbulent flow configurations. The results show that the augmented flow successfully improves the prediction of the physical quantities investigated, even when the observation is provided in a limited region of the physical domain. In addition, the present work suggests that these Data Assimilation techniques, which are at an embryonic stage of development in CFD, may have the potential to be pushed even further using the augmented prediction as a powerful tool for the optimization of the free parameters in the numerical simulation.

A simple analytical method to estimate all exit parameters of a cross-flow air dehumidifier using liquid desiccant

PubMed Central

Bassuoni, M.M.

2013-01-01

The dehumidifier is a key component in liquid desiccant air-conditioning systems. Analytical solutions have more advantages than numerical solutions in studying the dehumidifier performance parameters. This paper presents the performance results of exit parameters from an analytical model of an adiabatic cross-flow liquid desiccant air dehumidifier. Calcium chloride is used as desiccant material in this investigation. A program performing the analytical solution is developed using the engineering equation solver software. Good accuracy has been found between analytical solution and reliable experimental results with a maximum deviation of +6.63% and −5.65% in the moisture removal rate. The method developed here can be used in the quick prediction of the dehumidifier performance. The exit parameters from the dehumidifier are evaluated under the effects of variables such as air temperature and humidity, desiccant temperature and concentration, and air to desiccant flow rates. The results show that hot humid air and desiccant concentration have the greatest impact on the performance of the dehumidifier. The moisture removal rate is decreased with increasing both air inlet temperature and desiccant temperature while increases with increasing air to solution mass ratio, inlet desiccant concentration, and inlet air humidity ratio. PMID:25685485

Development of bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships for the physiographic divisions of the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships are used to estimate channel dimensions for stream flow simulation models, which require channel geometry data as input parameters. Often, one nationwide curve is used across the entire U.S. (e.g. in SWAT), even though studies have shown that the use of reg...

Tidal Mixing Box Submodel for Tampa Bay: Calibration of Tidal Exchange Flows with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST)

EPA Science Inventory

In the mid-1990s the Tampa Bay Estuary Program proposed a nutrient reduction strategy focused on improving water clarity to promote seagrass expansion within Tampa Bay. A System Dynamics Model is being developed to evaluate spatially and temporally explicit impacts of nutrient r...

RRAWFLOW: Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (v1.11)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, A. J.

2014-09-01

The Rainfall-Response Aquifer and Watershed Flow Model (RRAWFLOW) is a lumped-parameter model that simulates streamflow, springflow, groundwater level, solute transport, or cave drip for a measurement point in response to a system input of precipitation, recharge, or solute injection. The RRAWFLOW open-source code is written in the R language and is included in the Supplement to this article along with an example model of springflow. RRAWFLOW includes a time-series process to estimate recharge from precipitation and simulates the response to recharge by convolution; i.e., the unit hydrograph approach. Gamma functions are used for estimation of parametric impulse-response functions (IRFs); a combination of two gamma functions results in a double-peaked IRF. A spline fit to a set of control points is introduced as a new method for estimation of nonparametric IRFs. Other options include the use of user-defined IRFs and different methods to simulate time-variant systems. For many applications, lumped models simulate the system response with equal accuracy to that of distributed models, but moreover, the ease of model construction and calibration of lumped models makes them a good choice for many applications. RRAWFLOW provides professional hydrologists and students with an accessible and versatile tool for lumped-parameter modeling.

Parameter and input data uncertainty estimation for the assessment of water resources in two sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oosthuizen, Nadia; Hughes, Denis A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; Mwenge Kahinda, Jean-Marc; Mvandaba, Vuyelwa

2018-05-01

The demand for water resources is rapidly growing, placing more strain on access to water and its management. In order to appropriately manage water resources, there is a need to accurately quantify available water resources. Unfortunately, the data required for such assessment are frequently far from sufficient in terms of availability and quality, especially in southern Africa. In this study, the uncertainty related to the estimation of water resources of two sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin - the Mogalakwena in South Africa and the Shashe shared between Botswana and Zimbabwe - is assessed. Input data (and model parameters) are significant sources of uncertainty that should be quantified. In southern Africa water use data are among the most unreliable sources of model input data because available databases generally consist of only licensed information and actual use is generally unknown. The study assesses how these uncertainties impact the estimation of surface water resources of the sub-basins. Data on farm reservoirs and irrigated areas from various sources were collected and used to run the model. Many farm dams and large irrigation areas are located in the upper parts of the Mogalakwena sub-basin. Results indicate that water use uncertainty is small. Nevertheless, the medium to low flows are clearly impacted. The simulated mean monthly flows at the outlet of the Mogalakwena sub-basin were between 22.62 and 24.68 Mm3 per month when incorporating only the uncertainty related to the main physical runoff generating parameters. The range of total predictive uncertainty of the model increased to between 22.15 and 24.99 Mm3 when water use data such as small farm and large reservoirs and irrigation were included. For the Shashe sub-basin incorporating only uncertainty related to the main runoff parameters resulted in mean monthly flows between 11.66 and 14.54 Mm3. The range of predictive uncertainty changed to between 11.66 and 17.72 Mm3 after the uncertainty in water use information was added.

Bayesian WLS/GLS regression for regional skewness analysis for regions with large crest stage gage networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veilleux, Andrea G.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Eash, David A.

2012-01-01

This paper summarizes methodological advances in regional log-space skewness analyses that support flood-frequency analysis with the log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution. A Bayesian Weighted Least Squares/Generalized Least Squares (B-WLS/B-GLS) methodology that relates observed skewness coefficient estimators to basin characteristics in conjunction with diagnostic statistics represents an extension of the previously developed B-GLS methodology. B-WLS/B-GLS has been shown to be effective in two California studies. B-WLS/B-GLS uses B-WLS to generate stable estimators of model parameters and B-GLS to estimate the precision of those B-WLS regression parameters, as well as the precision of the model. The study described here employs this methodology to develop a regional skewness model for the State of Iowa. To provide cost effective peak-flow data for smaller drainage basins in Iowa, the U.S. Geological Survey operates a large network of crest stage gages (CSGs) that only record flow values above an identified recording threshold (thus producing a censored data record). CSGs are different from continuous-record gages, which record almost all flow values and have been used in previous B-GLS and B-WLS/B-GLS regional skewness studies. The complexity of analyzing a large CSG network is addressed by using the B-WLS/B-GLS framework along with the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA). Because EMA allows for the censoring of low outliers, as well as the use of estimated interval discharges for missing, censored, and historic data, it complicates the calculations of effective record length (and effective concurrent record length) used to describe the precision of sample estimators because the peak discharges are no longer solely represented by single values. Thus new record length calculations were developed. The regional skewness analysis for the State of Iowa illustrates the value of the new B-WLS/BGLS methodology with these new extensions.

1DTempPro V2: new features for inferring groundwater/surface-water exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koch, Franklin W.; Voytek, Emily B.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Healy, Richard W.; Briggs, Martin A.; Lane, John W.; Werkema, Dale D.

2016-01-01

A new version of the computer program 1DTempPro extends the original code to include new capabilities for (1) automated parameter estimation, (2) layer heterogeneity, and (3) time-varying specific discharge. The code serves as an interface to the U.S. Geological Survey model VS2DH and supports analysis of vertical one-dimensional temperature profiles under saturated flow conditions to assess groundwater/surface-water exchange and estimate hydraulic conductivity for cases where hydraulic head is known.

Potential for saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer near Bonita Springs, southwestern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; Edwards, K. Michelle

2003-01-01

A study was conducted to examine the potential for saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer beneath Bonita Springs in southwestern Florida. Field data were collected, and constant- and variable-density ground-water flow simulations were performed that: (1) spatially quantified modern and seasonal stresses, (2) identified potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion, and (3) estimated the potential extent of saltwater intrusion for the area of concern. MODFLOW and the inverse modeling routine UCODE were used to spatially quantify modern and seasonal stresses by calibrating a constant-density ground-water flow model to field data collected in 1996. The model was calibrated by assuming hydraulic conductivity parameters were accurate and by estimating unmonitored ground-water pumpage and potential evapotranspiration with UCODE. Uncertainty in these estimated parameters was quantified with 95-percent confidence intervals. These confidence intervals indicate more uncertainty (or less reliability) in the estimates of unmonitored ground-water pumpage than estimates of pan-evaporation multipliers, because of the nature and distribution of observations used during calibration. Comparison of simulated water levels, streamflows, and net recharge with field data suggests the model is a good representation of field conditions. Potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion into the lower Tamiami aquifer include: (1) lateral inland movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface from the southwestern coast of Florida; (2) upward leakage from deeper saline water-bearing zones through natural upwelling and upconing, both of which could occur as diffuse upward flow through semiconfining layers, conduit flow through karst features, or pipe flow through leaky artesian wells; (3) downward leakage of saltwater from surface-water channels; and (4) movement of unflushed pockets of relict seawater. Of the many potential mechanisms of saltwater intrusion, field data and variable-density ground-water flow simulations suggest that upconing is of utmost concern, and lateral encroachment is of second-most concern. This interpretation is uncertain, however, because the predominance of saltwater intrusion through leaky artesian wells with connection to deeper, more saline, and higher pressure aquifers was difficult to establish. Effective management of ground-water resources in southwestern Florida requires an understanding of the potential extent of saltwater intrusion in the lower Tamiami aquifer near Bonita Springs. Variable-density, ground-water flow simulations suggest that when saltwater is at dynamic equilibrium with 1996 seasonal stresses, the extent of saltwater intrusion is about 100 square kilometers areally and 70,000 hectare-meters volumetrically. The volumetric extent of saltwater intrusion was most sensitive to changes in recharge, ground-water pumpage, sea level, salinity of the Gulf of Mexico, and the potentiometric surface of the sandstone aquifer, respectively.

Investigation of flow dynamics of liquid phase in a pilot-scale trickle bed reactor using radiotracer technique.

PubMed

Pant, H J; Sharma, V K

2016-10-01

A radiotracer investigation was carried out to measure residence time distribution (RTD) of liquid phase in a trickle bed reactor (TBR). The main objectives of the investigation were to investigate radial and axial mixing of the liquid phase, and evaluate performance of the liquid distributor/redistributor at different operating conditions. Mean residence times (MRTs), holdups (H) and fraction of flow flowing along different quadrants were estimated. The analysis of the measured RTD curves indicated radial non-uniform distribution of liquid phase across the beds. The overall RTD of the liquid phase, measured at the exit of the reactor was simulated using a multi-parameter axial dispersion with exchange model (ADEM), and model parameters were obtained. The results of model simulations indicated that the TBR behaved as a plug flow reactor at most of the operating conditions used in the investigation. The results of the investigation helped to improve the existing design as well as to design a full-scale industrial TBR for petroleum refining applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tuning transitions in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Pranav; Kunnen, Rudie; Clercx, Herman

2015-11-01

Turbulent rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection, depending on the system parameters, exhibits multiple flow states and transitions between them. The present experimental study aims to control the transitions between the flow regimes, and hence the system heat transfer characteristics, by introducing particles in the flow. We inject near-neutrally buoyant silver coated hollow ceramic spheres (~100 micron diameter) and measure the system response, i.e. the Nusselt number, at different particle concentrations and rotation rates. Both for rotating and non-rotating cases, most of the particles settle on the top and bottom plates in a few hours following injection. This rapid settling may be a result of ``trapping'' of particles in the laminar boundary layers at the horizontal walls. These particle layers on the heat-transfer surfaces reduce their effective conductivity, and consequently, lower the heat transfer rate. We calculate the effective system parameters by estimating, and accounting for, the temperature drop across the particle layers. Preliminary analysis suggests that the thermal resistance of the particle layers may affect the flow structure and delay the transition to the ``geostrophic'' regime. Financial support from Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter.

Four-dimensional Doppler ultrasound measurements in carotid bifurcation models: effect of concentric versus eccentric stenosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poepping, Tamie L.; Rankin, Richard N.; Holdsworth, David W.

2001-05-01

A unique in-vitro system has been developed that incorporates both realistic phantoms and flow. The anthropomorphic carotid phantoms are fabricated in agar with stenosis severity of 30% or 70% (by NASCET standards) and one of two geometric configurations- concentric or eccentric. The phantoms are perfused with a flow waveform that simulates normal common carotid flow. Pulsed Doppler ultrasound data are acquired at a 1 mm grid spacing throughout the lumen of the carotid bifurcation. To obtain a half-lumen volume, symmetric about the mid plane, requires a 13 hour acquisition over 3238 interrogation sites, producing 5.6 Gbytes of data. The spectral analysis produces estimates of parameters such as the peak velocity, mean velocity, spectral-broadening index, and turbulence intensity. Color-encoded or grayscale-encoded maps of these spectral parameters show distinctly different flow patterns resulting from stenoses of equal severity but different eccentricity. The most noticeable differences are seen in the volumes of the recirculation zones and the paths of the high-velocity jets. Elevated levels of turbulence intensity are also seen distal to the stenosis in the 70%-stenosed models.

Microvascular flow estimation by contrast-assisted ultrasound B-scan and statistical parametric images.

PubMed

Tsui, Po-Hsiang; Yeh, Chih-Kuang; Chang, Chien-Cheng

2009-05-01

The microbubbles destruction/replenishment technique has been previously applied to estimating blood flow in the microcirculation. The rate of increase of the time-intensity curve (TIC) due to microbubbles flowing into the region of interest (ROI), as measured from B-mode images, closely reflects the flow velocity. In previous studies, we proposed a new approach called the time-Nakagami-parameter curve (TNC) obtained from Nakagami images to monitor microbubble replenishment for quantifying the microvascular flow velocity. This study aimed to further explore some effects that may affect the TNC to estimate the microflow, including microbubble concentration, ultrasound transmitting energy, attenuation, intrinsic noise, and tissue clutter. In order to well control each effect production, we applied a typical simulation method to investigate the TIC and TNC. The rates of increase of the TIC and TNC were expressed by the rate constants beta(I) and beta(N), respectively, of a monoexponential model. The results show that beta(N) quantifies the microvascular flow velocity similarly to the conventional beta(I) . Moreover, the measures of beta(I) and beta(N) are not influenced by microbubble concentration, transducer excitation energy, and attenuation effect. Although the effect of intrinsic signals contributed by noise and blood would influence the TNC behavior, the TNC method has a better tolerance of tissue clutter than the TIC does, allowing the presence of some clutter components in the ROI. The results suggest that the TNC method can be used as a complementary tool for the conventional TIC to reduce the wall filter requirements for blood flow measurement in the microcirculation.

Pumping Test Determination of Unsaturated Aquifer Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, P. K.; Neuman, S. P.

2008-12-01

Tartakovsky and Neuman [2007] presented a new analytical solution for flow to a partially penetrating well pumping at a constant rate from a compressible unconfined aquifer considering the unsaturated zone. In their solution three-dimensional, axially symmetric unsaturated flow is described by a linearized version of Richards' equation in which both hydraulic conductivity and water content vary exponentially with incremental capillary pressure head relative to its air entry value, the latter defining the interface between the saturated and unsaturated zones. Both exponential functions are characterized by a common exponent k having the dimension of inverse length, or equivalently a dimensionless exponent kd=kb where b is initial saturated thickness. The authors used their solution to analyze drawdown data from a pumping test conducted by Moench et al. [2001] in a Glacial Outwash Deposit at Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Their analysis yielded estimates of horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivities, specific storage, specific yield and k . Recognizing that hydraulic conductivity and water content seldom vary identically with incremental capillary pressure head, as assumed by Tartakovsky and Neuman [2007], we note that k is at best an effective rather than a directly measurable soil parameter. We therefore ask to what extent does interpretation of a pumping test based on the Tartakovsky-Neuman solution allow estimating aquifer unsaturated parameters as described by more common constitutive water retention and relative hydraulic conductivity models such as those of Brooks and Corey [1964] or van Genuchten [1980] and Mualem [1976a]? We address this question by showing how may be used to estimate the capillary air entry pressure head k and the parameters of such constitutive models directly, without a need for inverse unsaturated numerical simulations of the kind described by Moench [2003]. To assess the validity of such direct estimates we use maximum likelihood- based model selection criteria to compare the abilities of numerical models based on the STOMP code to reproduce observed drawdowns during the test when saturated and unsaturated aquifer parameters are estimated either in the above manner or by means of the inverse code PEST.

Customization of a hydrological model for the estimation of water resources in an alpine karstified catchment with sparse data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauzlaric, Martina; Schädler, Bruno; Weingartner, Rolf

2014-05-01

The main objective of the MontanAqua transdisciplinary project is to develop strategies moving towards a more sustainable water resources management in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region (Valais, Switzerland) in view of global change. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the available water resources in the study area today and in the future is needed. The study region is situated in the inner alpine zone, with strong altitudinal precipitation gradients: from the precipitation rich alpine ridge down to the dry Rhône plain. A typical plateau glacier on top of the ridge is partly drained through the karstic underground formations and linked to various springs to either side of the water divide. The main anthropogenic influences on the system are reservoirs and diversions to the irrigation channels. Thus, the study area does not cover a classical hydrological basin as the water flows frequently across natural hydrographic boundaries. This is a big challenge from a hydrological point of view, as we cannot easily achieve a closed, measured water balance. Over and above, a lack of comprehensive historical data in the catchment reduces the degree of process conceptualization possible, as well as prohibits usual parameter estimation procedures. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) (Kumar, 2009) has been selected to estimate the available natural water resource for the whole study area. It is a semi-discrete, physically-based model which includes: channel routing, overland flow, subsurface saturated and unsaturated flow, rainfall interception, snow melting and evapotranspiration. Its unstructured mesh decomposition offers a flexible domain decomposition strategy for efficient and accurate integration of the physiographic, climatic and hydrographic watershed. The model was modified in order to be more suitable for a karstified mountainous catchment: it now includes the possibility to punctually add external sources, and the temperature-index approach for estimating melt was adjusted to include the influence of solar radiation. No parameter calibration in a classical sense was used as sufficient observations are missing. Hence, parameters are estimated with values obtained from the literature, catchment boundaries were determined basing on tracer experiments, as well as the relationship between precipitation, spring- and river-discharge. Historical data such as river discharge, infiltration experiments and snow and glacier mass balance measurements were used to validate simulations. Here some case studies are presented, illustrating the difficulty of estimating snowmelt and icemelt parameters, of judging their correctness, as well as the consequent sensitivity of the regional water balance. REFERENCES Kumar, M. 2009: Toward a hydrologic modeling system. PhD Thesis, Departement of civil and Environmental engineering, Pennsylvania State University, USA.

Quantitative Functional Imaging Using Dynamic Positron Computed Tomography and Rapid Parameter Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koeppe, Robert Allen

Positron computed tomography (PCT) is a diagnostic imaging technique that provides both three dimensional imaging capability and quantitative measurements of local tissue radioactivity concentrations in vivo. This allows the development of non-invasive methods that employ the principles of tracer kinetics for determining physiological properties such as mass specific blood flow, tissue pH, and rates of substrate transport or utilization. A physiologically based, two-compartment tracer kinetic model was derived to mathematically describe the exchange of a radioindicator between blood and tissue. The model was adapted for use with dynamic sequences of data acquired with a positron tomograph. Rapid estimation techniques were implemented to produce functional images of the model parameters by analyzing each individual pixel sequence of the image data. A detailed analysis of the performance characteristics of three different parameter estimation schemes was performed. The analysis included examination of errors caused by statistical uncertainties in the measured data, errors in the timing of the data, and errors caused by violation of various assumptions of the tracer kinetic model. Two specific radioindicators were investigated. ('18)F -fluoromethane, an inert freely diffusible gas, was used for local quantitative determinations of both cerebral blood flow and tissue:blood partition coefficient. A method was developed that did not require direct sampling of arterial blood for the absolute scaling of flow values. The arterial input concentration time course was obtained by assuming that the alveolar or end-tidal expired breath radioactivity concentration is proportional to the arterial blood concentration. The scale of the input function was obtained from a series of venous blood concentration measurements. The method of absolute scaling using venous samples was validated in four studies, performed on normal volunteers, in which directly measured arterial concentrations were compared to those predicted from the expired air and venous blood samples. The glucose analog ('18)F-3-deoxy-3-fluoro-D -glucose (3-FDG) was used for quantitating the membrane transport rate of glucose. The measured data indicated that the phosphorylation rate of 3-FDG was low enough to allow accurate estimation of the transport rate using a two compartment model.

An adaptive model for vanadium redox flow battery and its application for online peak power estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Meng, Shujuan; Tseng, King Jet; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Soong, Boon Hee; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2017-03-01

An accurate battery model is the prerequisite for reliable state estimate of vanadium redox battery (VRB). As the battery model parameters are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging, the common methods where model parameters are empirical or prescribed offline lacks accuracy and robustness. To address this issue, this paper proposes to use an online adaptive battery model to reproduce the VRB dynamics accurately. The model parameters are online identified with both the recursive least squares (RLS) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Performance comparison shows that the RLS is superior with respect to the modeling accuracy, convergence property, and computational complexity. Based on the online identified battery model, an adaptive peak power estimator which incorporates the constraints of voltage limit, SOC limit and design limit of current is proposed to fully exploit the potential of the VRB. Experiments are conducted on a lab-scale VRB system and the proposed peak power estimator is verified with a specifically designed "two-step verification" method. It is shown that different constraints dominate the allowable peak power at different stages of cycling. The influence of prediction time horizon selection on the peak power is also analyzed.

Estimating Aquifer Properties Using Sinusoidal Pumping Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, T. C.; Haborak, K. G.; Young, M. H.

2001-12-01

We develop the theoretical and applied framework for using sinusoidal pumping tests to estimate aquifer properties for confined, leaky, and partially penetrating conditions. The framework 1) derives analytical solutions for three boundary conditions suitable for many practical applications, 2) validates the analytical solutions against a finite element model, 3) establishes a protocol for conducting sinusoidal pumping tests, and 4) estimates aquifer hydraulic parameters based on the analytical solutions. The analytical solutions to sinusoidal stimuli in radial coordinates are derived for boundary value problems that are analogous to the Theis (1935) confined aquifer solution, the Hantush and Jacob (1955) leaky aquifer solution, and the Hantush (1964) partially penetrated confined aquifer solution. The analytical solutions compare favorably to a finite-element solution of a simulated flow domain, except in the region immediately adjacent to the pumping well where the implicit assumption of zero borehole radius is violated. The procedure is demonstrated in one unconfined and two confined aquifer units near the General Separations Area at the Savannah River Site, a federal nuclear facility located in South Carolina. Aquifer hydraulic parameters estimated using this framework provide independent confirmation of parameters obtained from conventional aquifer tests. The sinusoidal approach also resulted in the elimination of investigation-derived wastes.

A new powerful parameterization tool for managing groundwater resources and predicting land subsidence in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Nunes, V. D.; Burbey, T. J.; Borggaard, J.

2012-12-01

More than 1.5 m of subsidence has been observed in Las Vegas Valley since 1935 as a result of groundwater pumping that commenced in 1905 (Bell, 2002). The compaction of the aquifer system has led to several large subsidence bowls and deleterious earth fissures. The highly heterogeneous aquifer system with its variably thick interbeds makes predicting the magnitude and location of subsidence extremely difficult. Several numerical groundwater flow models of the Las Vegas basin have been previously developed; however none of them have been able to accurately simulate the observed subsidence patterns or magnitudes because of inadequate parameterization. To better manage groundwater resources and predict future subsidence we have updated and developed a more accurate groundwater management model for Las Vegas Valley by developing a new adjoint parameter estimation package (APE) that is used in conjunction with UCODE along with MODFLOW and the SUB (subsidence) and HFB (horizontal flow barrier) packages. The APE package is used with UCODE to automatically identify suitable parameter zonations and inversely calculate parameter values from hydraulic head and subsidence measurements, which are highly sensitive to both elastic (Ske) and inelastic (Skv) storage coefficients. With the advent of InSAR (Interferometric synthetic aperture radar), distributed spatial and temporal subsidence measurements can be obtained, which greatly enhance the accuracy of parameter estimation. This automation process can remove user bias and provide a far more accurate and robust parameter zonation distribution. The outcome of this work yields a more accurate and powerful tool for managing groundwater resources in Las Vegas Valley to date.

Study of gas production from shale reservoirs with multi-stage hydraulic fracturing horizontal well considering multiple transport mechanisms.

PubMed

Guo, Chaohua; Wei, Mingzhen; Liu, Hong

2018-01-01

Development of unconventional shale gas reservoirs (SGRs) has been boosted by the advancements in two key technologies: horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. A large number of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells (MsFHW) have been drilled to enhance reservoir production performance. Gas flow in SGRs is a multi-mechanism process, including: desorption, diffusion, and non-Darcy flow. The productivity of the SGRs with MsFHW is influenced by both reservoir conditions and hydraulic fracture properties. However, rare simulation work has been conducted for multi-stage hydraulic fractured SGRs. Most of them use well testing methods, which have too many unrealistic simplifications and assumptions. Also, no systematical work has been conducted considering all reasonable transport mechanisms. And there are very few works on sensitivity studies of uncertain parameters using real parameter ranges. Hence, a detailed and systematic study of reservoir simulation with MsFHW is still necessary. In this paper, a dual porosity model was constructed to estimate the effect of parameters on shale gas production with MsFHW. The simulation model was verified with the available field data from the Barnett Shale. The following mechanisms have been considered in this model: viscous flow, slip flow, Knudsen diffusion, and gas desorption. Langmuir isotherm was used to simulate the gas desorption process. Sensitivity analysis on SGRs' production performance with MsFHW has been conducted. Parameters influencing shale gas production were classified into two categories: reservoir parameters including matrix permeability, matrix porosity; and hydraulic fracture parameters including hydraulic fracture spacing, and fracture half-length. Typical ranges of matrix parameters have been reviewed. Sensitivity analysis have been conducted to analyze the effect of the above factors on the production performance of SGRs. Through comparison, it can be found that hydraulic fracture parameters are more sensitive compared with reservoir parameters. And reservoirs parameters mainly affect the later production period. However, the hydraulic fracture parameters have a significant effect on gas production from the early period. The results of this study can be used to improve the efficiency of history matching process. Also, it can contribute to the design and optimization of hydraulic fracture treatment design in unconventional SGRs.

Study of gas production from shale reservoirs with multi-stage hydraulic fracturing horizontal well considering multiple transport mechanisms

PubMed Central

Wei, Mingzhen; Liu, Hong

2018-01-01

Development of unconventional shale gas reservoirs (SGRs) has been boosted by the advancements in two key technologies: horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. A large number of multi-stage fractured horizontal wells (MsFHW) have been drilled to enhance reservoir production performance. Gas flow in SGRs is a multi-mechanism process, including: desorption, diffusion, and non-Darcy flow. The productivity of the SGRs with MsFHW is influenced by both reservoir conditions and hydraulic fracture properties. However, rare simulation work has been conducted for multi-stage hydraulic fractured SGRs. Most of them use well testing methods, which have too many unrealistic simplifications and assumptions. Also, no systematical work has been conducted considering all reasonable transport mechanisms. And there are very few works on sensitivity studies of uncertain parameters using real parameter ranges. Hence, a detailed and systematic study of reservoir simulation with MsFHW is still necessary. In this paper, a dual porosity model was constructed to estimate the effect of parameters on shale gas production with MsFHW. The simulation model was verified with the available field data from the Barnett Shale. The following mechanisms have been considered in this model: viscous flow, slip flow, Knudsen diffusion, and gas desorption. Langmuir isotherm was used to simulate the gas desorption process. Sensitivity analysis on SGRs’ production performance with MsFHW has been conducted. Parameters influencing shale gas production were classified into two categories: reservoir parameters including matrix permeability, matrix porosity; and hydraulic fracture parameters including hydraulic fracture spacing, and fracture half-length. Typical ranges of matrix parameters have been reviewed. Sensitivity analysis have been conducted to analyze the effect of the above factors on the production performance of SGRs. Through comparison, it can be found that hydraulic fracture parameters are more sensitive compared with reservoir parameters. And reservoirs parameters mainly affect the later production period. However, the hydraulic fracture parameters have a significant effect on gas production from the early period. The results of this study can be used to improve the efficiency of history matching process. Also, it can contribute to the design and optimization of hydraulic fracture treatment design in unconventional SGRs. PMID:29320489

Time-delayed chameleon: Analysis, synchronization and FPGA implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Karthikeyan; Jafari, Sajad; Laarem, Guessas

2017-12-01

In this paper we report a time-delayed chameleon-like chaotic system which can belong to different families of chaotic attractors depending on the choices of parameters. Such a characteristic of self-excited and hidden chaotic flows in a simple 3D system with time delay has not been reported earlier. Dynamic analysis of the proposed time-delayed systems are analysed in time-delay space and parameter space. A novel adaptive modified functional projective lag synchronization algorithm is derived for synchronizing identical time-delayed chameleon systems with uncertain parameters. The proposed time-delayed systems and the synchronization algorithm with controllers and parameter estimates are then implemented in FPGA using hardware-software co-simulation and the results are presented.

The effect of inflation on the morphology-derived rheological parameters of lava flows and its implications for interpreting remote sensing data - A case study on the 2014/2015 eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolzenburg, S.; Jaenicke, J.; Münzer, U.; Dingwell, D. B.

2018-05-01

Morphology-derived lava flow rheology is a frequently used tool in volcanology and planetary science to determine rheological parameters and deduce the composition of lavas on terrestrial planets and their moons. These calculations are usually based on physical equations incorporating 1) lava flow driving forces: gravity, slope and flow-rate and 2) morphological data such as lava flow geometry: flow-width, -height or shape of the flow outline. All available methods assume that no geometrical changes occur after emplacement and that the measured flow geometry reflects the lava's apparent viscosity and/or yield strength during emplacement. It is however well-established from terrestrial examples that lava flows may inflate significantly after the cessation of flow advance. This inflation affects, in turn, the width-to-height ratio upon which the rheological estimates are based and thus must result in uncertainties in the determination of flow rheology, as the flow height is one of the key parameters in the morphology-based deduction of flow properties. Previous studies have recognized this issue but, to date, no assessment of the magnitude of this error has been presented. This is likely due to a lack of digital elevation models (DEMs) at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. The 2014/15 Holuhraun eruption in central Iceland represents one of the best monitored large volume (1.5 km3) lava flow fields (85 km2) to date. An abundance of scientific field and remote sensing data were collected during its emplacement. Moreover, inflation plays a key role in the emplacement dynamics of the late stage of the lava field. Here, we use a time series of high resolution DEMs acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite mission prior, during and after the eruption to evaluate the error associated with the most common methods of deriving lava flow rheology from morphological parameters used in planetary science. We can distinguish two dominant processes as sources of error in the determination of lava flow rheology from morphology 1) wholesale inflation of lava channels and 2) post halting inflation of individual lava toes. These result in a 2.4- to 17 - fold overestimation of apparent viscosity and a 0.7- to 2.4 - fold overestimation of yield strength. When applied in planetary sciences, this overestimation in rheological parameters translates directly to an overestimation of the respective lavas silica content. We conclude that, although qualitatively informative, morphological analysis is insufficient to discern lava rheology and composition. Instead, in-situ analysis together with high resolution remote sensing data is needed to properly constrain the compositions involved in planetary volcanism.

Data Assimilation by Ensemble Kalman Filter during One-Dimensional Nonlinear Consolidation in Randomly Heterogeneous Highly Compressible Aquitards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zapata Norberto, B.; Morales-Casique, E.; Herrera, G. S.

2017-12-01

Severe land subsidence due to groundwater extraction may occur in multiaquifer systems where highly compressible aquitards are present. The highly compressible nature of the aquitards leads to nonlinear consolidation where the groundwater flow parameters are stress-dependent. The case is further complicated by the heterogeneity of the hydrogeologic and geotechnical properties of the aquitards. We explore the effect of realistic vertical heterogeneity of hydrogeologic and geotechnical parameters on the consolidation of highly compressible aquitards by means of 1-D Monte Carlo numerical simulations. 2000 realizations are generated for each of the following parameters: hydraulic conductivity (K), compression index (Cc) and void ratio (e). The correlation structure, the mean and the variance for each parameter were obtained from a literature review about field studies in the lacustrine sediments of Mexico City. The results indicate that among the parameters considered, random K has the largest effect on the ensemble average behavior of the system. Random K leads to the largest variance (and therefore largest uncertainty) of total settlement, groundwater flux and time to reach steady state conditions. We further propose a data assimilation scheme by means of ensemble Kalman filter to estimate the ensemble mean distribution of K, pore-pressure and total settlement. We consider the case where pore-pressure measurements are available at given time intervals. We test our approach by generating a 1-D realization of K with exponential spatial correlation, and solving the nonlinear flow and consolidation problem. These results are taken as our "true" solution. We take pore-pressure "measurements" at different times from this "true" solution. The ensemble Kalman filter method is then employed to estimate ensemble mean distribution of K, pore-pressure and total settlement based on the sequential assimilation of these pore-pressure measurements. The ensemble-mean estimates from this procedure closely approximate those from the "true" solution. This procedure can be easily extended to other random variables such as compression index and void ratio.

Determination of hyporheic travel time distributions and other parameters from concurrent conservative and reactive tracer tests by local-in-global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Julia L. A.; Cirpka, Olaf A.

2017-06-01

The complexity of hyporheic flow paths requires reach-scale models of solute transport in streams that are flexible in their representation of the hyporheic passage. We use a model that couples advective-dispersive in-stream transport to hyporheic exchange with a shape-free distribution of hyporheic travel times. The model also accounts for two-site sorption and transformation of reactive solutes. The coefficients of the model are determined by fitting concurrent stream-tracer tests of conservative (fluorescein) and reactive (resazurin/resorufin) compounds. The flexibility of the shape-free models give rise to multiple local minima of the objective function in parameter estimation, thus requiring global-search algorithms, which is hindered by the large number of parameter values to be estimated. We present a local-in-global optimization approach, in which we use a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method as global-search method to estimate a set of in-stream and hyporheic parameters. Nested therein, we infer the shape-free distribution of hyporheic travel times by a local Gauss-Newton method. The overall approach is independent of the initial guess and provides the joint posterior distribution of all parameters. We apply the described local-in-global optimization method to recorded tracer breakthrough curves of three consecutive stream sections, and infer section-wise hydraulic parameter distributions to analyze how hyporheic exchange processes differ between the stream sections.

Disturbance torque rejection properties of the NASA/JPL 70-meter antenna axis servos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, R. E.

1989-01-01

Analytic methods for evaluating pointing errors caused by external disturbance torques are developed and applied to determine the effects of representative values of wind and friction torque. The expressions relating pointing errors to disturbance torques are shown to be strongly dependent upon the state estimator parameters, as well as upon the state feedback gain and the flow versus pressure characteristics of the hydraulic system. Under certain conditions, when control is derived from an uncorrected estimate of integral position error, the desired type 2 servo properties are not realized and finite steady-state position errors result. Methods for reducing these errors to negligible proportions through the proper selection of control gain and estimator correction parameters are demonstrated. The steady-state error produced by a disturbance torque is found to be directly proportional to the hydraulic internal leakage. This property can be exploited to provide a convenient method of determining system leakage from field measurements of estimator error, axis rate, and hydraulic differential pressure.

Dense motion estimation using regularization constraints on local parametric models.

PubMed

Patras, Ioannis; Worring, Marcel; van den Boomgaard, Rein

2004-11-01

This paper presents a method for dense optical flow estimation in which the motion field within patches that result from an initial intensity segmentation is parametrized with models of different order. We propose a novel formulation which introduces regularization constraints between the model parameters of neighboring patches. In this way, we provide the additional constraints for very small patches and for patches whose intensity variation cannot sufficiently constrain the estimation of their motion parameters. In order to preserve motion discontinuities, we use robust functions as a regularization mean. We adopt a three-frame approach and control the balance between the backward and forward constraints by a real-valued direction field on which regularization constraints are applied. An iterative deterministic relaxation method is employed in order to solve the corresponding optimization problem. Experimental results show that the proposed method deals successfully with motions large in magnitude, motion discontinuities, and produces accurate piecewise-smooth motion fields.

Assessment of coarse sediment mobility in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River, Colorado.

PubMed

Dubinski, Ian M; Wohl, Ellen

2007-07-01

The Gunnison River in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park (BCNP) near Montrose, Colorado is a mixed gravel and bedrock river with ephemeral side tributaries. Flow rates are controlled immediately upstream by a diversion tunnel and three reservoirs. The management of the hydraulic control structures has decreased low-frequency, high-stage flows, which are the dominant geomorphic force in bedrock channel systems. We developed a simple model to estimate the extent of sediment mobilization at a given flow in the BCNP and to evaluate changes in the extent and frequency of sediment mobilization for flow regimes before and after flow regulation in 1966. Our methodology provides a screening process for identifying and prioritizing areas in terms of sediment mobility criteria when more precise systematic field data are unavailable. The model uses the ratio between reach-averaged bed shear stress and critical shear stress to estimate when a particular grain size is mobilized for a given reach. We used aerial photography from 1992, digital elevation models, and field surveys to identify individual reaches and estimate reach-averaged hydraulic geometry. Pebble counts of talus and debris fan deposits were used to estimate regional colluvial grain-size distributions. Our results show that the frequency of flows mobilizing river bank sediment along a majority of the Gunnison River in the BCNP has significantly declined since 1966. The model results correspond well to those obtained from more detailed, site-specific field studies carried out by other investigators. Decreases in the frequency of significant sediment-mobilizing flows were more pronounced for regions within the BCNP where the channel gradient is lower. Implications of these results for management include increased risk of encroachment of vegetation on the active channel and long-term channel narrowing by colluvial deposits. It must be recognized that our methodology represents a screening of regional differences in sediment mobility. More precise estimates of hydraulic and sediment parameters would likely be required for dictating quantitative management objectives within the context of sediment mobility and sensitivity to changes in the flow regime.

TracerLPM (Version 1): An Excel® workbook for interpreting groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jurgens, Bryant C.; Böhlke, J.K.; Eberts, Sandra M.

2012-01-01

TracerLPM is an interactive Excel® (2007 or later) workbook program for evaluating groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data by using lumped parameter models (LPMs). Lumped parameter models are mathematical models of transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configurations that account for effects of hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing within the aquifer, well bore, or discharge area. Five primary LPMs are included in the workbook: piston-flow model (PFM), exponential mixing model (EMM), exponential piston-flow model (EPM), partial exponential model (PEM), and dispersion model (DM). Binary mixing models (BMM) can be created by combining primary LPMs in various combinations. Travel time through the unsaturated zone can be included as an additional parameter. TracerLPM also allows users to enter age distributions determined from other methods, such as particle tracking results from numerical groundwater-flow models or from other LPMs not included in this program. Tracers of both young groundwater (anthropogenic atmospheric gases and isotopic substances indicating post-1940s recharge) and much older groundwater (carbon-14 and helium-4) can be interpreted simultaneously so that estimates of the groundwater age distribution for samples with a wide range of ages can be constrained. TracerLPM is organized to permit a comprehensive interpretive approach consisting of hydrogeologic conceptualization, visual examination of data and models, and best-fit parameter estimation. Groundwater age distributions can be evaluated by comparing measured and modeled tracer concentrations in two ways: (1) multiple tracers analyzed simultaneously can be evaluated against each other for concordance with modeled concentrations (tracer-tracer application) or (2) tracer time-series data can be evaluated for concordance with modeled trends (tracer-time application). Groundwater-age estimates can also be obtained for samples with a single tracer measurement at one point in time; however, prior knowledge of an appropriate LPM is required because the mean age is often non-unique. LPM output concentrations depend on model parameters and sample date. All of the LPMs have a parameter for mean age. The EPM, PEM, and DM have an additional parameter that characterizes the degree of age mixing in the sample. BMMs have a parameter for the fraction of the first component in the mixture. An LPM, together with its parameter values, provides a description of the age distribution or the fractional contribution of water for every age of recharge contained within a sample. For the PFM, the age distribution is a unit pulse at one distinct age. For the other LPMs, the age distribution can be much broader and span decades, centuries, millennia, or more. For a sample with a mixture of groundwater ages, the reported interpretation of tracer data includes the LPM name, the mean age, and the values of any other independent model parameters. TracerLPM also can be used for simulating the responses of wells, springs, streams, or other groundwater discharge receptors to nonpoint-source contaminants that are introduced in recharge, such as nitrate. This is done by combining an LPM or user-defined age distribution with information on contaminant loading at the water table. Information on historic contaminant loading can be used to help evaluate a model's ability to match real world conditions and understand observed contaminant trends, while information on future contaminant loading scenarios can be used to forecast potential contaminant trends.

The nonlinear Galerkin method: A multi-scale method applied to the simulation of homogeneous turbulent flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Debussche, A.; Dubois, T.; Temam, R.

1993-01-01

Using results of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) in the case of two-dimensional homogeneous isotropic flows, the behavior of the small and large scales of Kolmogorov like flows at moderate Reynolds numbers are first analyzed in detail. Several estimates on the time variations of the small eddies and the nonlinear interaction terms were derived; those terms play the role of the Reynolds stress tensor in the case of LES. Since the time step of a numerical scheme is determined as a function of the energy-containing eddies of the flow, the variations of the small scales and of the nonlinear interaction terms over one iteration can become negligible by comparison with the accuracy of the computation. Based on this remark, a multilevel scheme which treats differently the small and the large eddies was proposed. Using mathematical developments, estimates of all the parameters involved in the algorithm, which then becomes a completely self-adaptive procedure were derived. Finally, realistic simulations of (Kolmorov like) flows over several eddy-turnover times were performed. The results are analyzed in detail and a parametric study of the nonlinear Galerkin method is performed.

The ESASSI-08 cruise in the South Scotia Ridge region: preliminary analysis of hydrodynamic and biogeochemical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomis, D.; Flexas, M. M.; Palmer, M.; Jordà, G.; Orsi, A. H.; Yvon-Lewis, S. A.

2009-04-01

The ESASSI-08 oceanographic cruise carried out in January 2008 was the major milestone of ESASSI, the Spanish component of SASSI (a core project of the International Polar Year devoted to study the shelf-slope exchanges in different locations of Antarctica). The sampling strategy of the cruise consisted of 11 full-depth CTD/ADCP sections across the northern and southern slope of the South Scotia Ridge (SSR), between Elephant and Orkney Islands. The sections extend from shelf waters to open sea and the profiles were gathered at an unprecedented spatial resolution over the slope (about 2 nm). Water samples for chemical and biological analysis were also collected at each station; the analyzed parameters include trace gases (CFCs), oxygen isotopes, carbon-related parameters, and nutrients. In this presentation we show the overall distribution of the main variables across the different sections. Namely, we present: a water mass analysis (in terms of potential temperature, salinity and neutral density), estimates of velocities and fluxes across different transects and distributions of biogeochemical parameters. The ultimate aims of the ESASSI project are: 1) to elucidate the fate of the ASF when it enters the SSR from the Weddell Sea; 2) to estimate the shelf-slope exchanges for different parameters; and 3) to quantify the importance of the ventilation associated with intermediate waters flowing over the SSR with respect to the ventilation associated with bottom waters that are blocked by the SSR and flow around the Orkney Plateau.

Inverse models: A necessary next step in ground-water modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, E.P.; Hill, M.C.

1997-01-01

Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares repression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares regression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.

Multi-hole pressure probes to wind tunnel experiments and air data systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevchenko, A. M.; Shmakov, A. S.

2017-10-01

The problems to develop a multihole pressure system to measure flow angularity, Mach number and dynamic head for wind tunnel experiments or air data systems are discussed. A simple analytical model with separation of variables is derived for the multihole spherical pressure probe. The proposed model is uniform for small subsonic and supersonic speeds. An error analysis was performed. The error functions are obtained, allowing to estimate the influence of the Mach number, the pitch angle, the location of the pressure ports on the uncertainty of determining the flow parameters.

GIS-aided low flow mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saghafian, B.; Mohammadi, A.

2003-04-01

Most studies involving water resources allocation, water quality, hydropower generation, and allowable water withdrawal and transfer require estimation of low flows. Normally, frequency analysis on at-station D-day low flow data is performed to derive various T-yr return period values. However, this analysis is restricted to the location of hydrometric stations where the flow discharge is measured. Regional analysis is therefore conducted to relate the at-station low flow quantiles to watershed characteristics. This enables the transposition of low flow quantiles to ungauged sites. Nevertheless, a procedure to map the regional regression relations for the entire stream network, within the bounds of the relations, is particularly helpful when one studies and weighs alternative sites for certain water resources project. In this study, we used a GIS-aided procedure for low flow mapping in Gilan province, part of northern region in Iran. Gilan enjoys a humid climate with an average of 1100 mm annual precipitation. Although rich in water resources, the highly populated area is quite dependent on minimum amount of water to sustain the vast rice farming and to maintain required flow discharge for quality purposes. To carry out the low flow analysis, a total of 36 hydrometric stations with sufficient and reliable discharge data were identified in the region. The average area of the watersheds was 250 sq. km. Log Pearson type 3 was found the best distribution for flow durations over 60 days, while log normal fitted well the shorter duration series. Low flows with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year were then computed. Cluster analysis identified two homogeneous areas. Although various watershed parameters were examined in factor analysis, the results showed watershed area, length of the main stream, and annual precipitation were the most effective low flow parameters. The regression equations were then mapped with the aid of GIS based on flow accumulation maps and the corresponding spatially averaged values of other parameters over the upslope area of all stream pixels exceeding a certain threshold area. Such map clearly shows the spatial variation of low flow quantiles along the stream network and enables the study of low flow profiles along any stream.

SP Response to a Line Source Infiltration for Characterizing the Vadose Zone: Forward Modeling and Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sailhac, P.

2004-05-01

Field estimation of soil water flux has direct application for water resource management. Standard hydrologic methods like tensiometry or TDR are often difficult to apply because of the heterogeneity of the subsurface, and non invasive tools like ERT, NMR or GPR are limited to the estimation of the water content. Electrical Streaming Potential (SP) monitoring can provide a cost-effective tool to help estimate the nature of the hydraulic transfers (infiltration or evaporation) in the vadose zone. Indeed this technique has improved during the last decade and has been shown to be a useful tool for quantitative groundwater flow characterization (see the poster of Marquis et al. for a review). We now account for our latest development on the possibility of using SP for estimating hydraulic parameters of unsaturated soils from in situ SP measurements during infiltration experiments. The proposed method consists in SP profiling perpendicularly to a line source of steady-state infiltration. Analytic expressions for the forward modeling show a sensitivity to six parameters: the electrokinetic coupling parameter at saturation CS, the soil sorptive number α , the ratio of the constant source strength to the hydraulic conductivity at saturation q/KS, the soil effective water saturation prior to the infiltration experiment Se0, Mualem parameter m, and Archie law exponent n. In applications, all these parameters could be constrained by inverting electrokinetic data obtained during a series of infiltration experiments with varying source strength q.

Multiphysics and Thermal Response Models to Improve Accuracy of Local Temperature Estimation in Rat Cortex under Microwave Exposure

PubMed Central

Kodera, Sachiko; Gomez-Tames, Jose; Hirata, Akimasa; Masuda, Hiroshi; Arima, Takuji; Watanabe, Soichi

2017-01-01

The rapid development of wireless technology has led to widespread concerns regarding adverse human health effects caused by exposure to electromagnetic fields. Temperature elevation in biological bodies is an important factor that can adversely affect health. A thermophysiological model is desired to quantify microwave (MW) induced temperature elevations. In this study, parameters related to thermophysiological responses for MW exposures were estimated using an electromagnetic-thermodynamics simulation technique. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study in which parameters related to regional cerebral blood flow in a rat model were extracted at a high degree of accuracy through experimental measurements for localized MW exposure at frequencies exceeding 6 GHz. The findings indicate that the improved modeling parameters yield computed results that match well with the measured quantities during and after exposure in rats. It is expected that the computational model will be helpful in estimating the temperature elevation in the rat brain at multiple observation points (that are difficult to measure simultaneously) and in explaining the physiological changes in the local cortex region. PMID:28358345

Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

2014-12-01

This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

Bridging the gap between measurements and modelling: a cardiovascular functional avatar.

PubMed

Casas, Belén; Lantz, Jonas; Viola, Federica; Cedersund, Gunnar; Bolger, Ann F; Carlhäll, Carl-Johan; Karlsson, Matts; Ebbers, Tino

2017-07-24

Lumped parameter models of the cardiovascular system have the potential to assist researchers and clinicians to better understand cardiovascular function. The value of such models increases when they are subject specific. However, most approaches to personalize lumped parameter models have thus far required invasive measurements or fall short of being subject specific due to a lack of the necessary clinical data. Here, we propose an approach to personalize parameters in a model of the heart and the systemic circulation using exclusively non-invasive measurements. The personalized model is created using flow data from four-dimensional magnetic resonance imaging and cuff pressure measurements in the brachial artery. We term this personalized model the cardiovascular avatar. In our proof-of-concept study, we evaluated the capability of the avatar to reproduce pressures and flows in a group of eight healthy subjects. Both quantitatively and qualitatively, the model-based results agreed well with the pressure and flow measurements obtained in vivo for each subject. This non-invasive and personalized approach can synthesize medical data into clinically relevant indicators of cardiovascular function, and estimate hemodynamic variables that cannot be assessed directly from clinical measurements.

Linking flowability and granulometry of lactose powders.

PubMed

Boschini, F; Delaval, V; Traina, K; Vandewalle, N; Lumay, G

2015-10-15

The flowing properties of 10 lactose powders commonly used in pharmaceutical industries have been analyzed with three recently improved measurement methods. The first method is based on the heap shape measurement. This straightforward measurement method provides two physical parameters (angle of repose αr and static cohesive index σr) allowing to make a first screening of the powder properties. The second method allows to estimate the rheological properties of a powder by analyzing the powder flow in a rotating drum. This more advanced method gives a large set of physical parameters (flowing angle αf, dynamic cohesive index σf, angle of first avalanche αa and powder aeration %ae) leading to deeper interpretations. The third method is an improvement of the classical bulk and tapped density measurements. In addition to the improvement of the measurement precision, the densification dynamics of the powder bulk submitted to taps is analyzed. The link between the macroscopic physical parameters obtained with these methods and the powder granulometry is analyzed. Moreover, the correlations between the different flowability indexes are discussed. Finally, the link between grain shape and flowability is discussed qualitatively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flow-covariate prediction of stream pesticide concentrations.

PubMed

Mosquin, Paul L; Aldworth, Jeremy; Chen, Wenlin

2018-01-01

Potential peak functions (e.g., maximum rolling averages over a given duration) of annual pesticide concentrations in the aquatic environment are important exposure parameters (or target quantities) for ecological risk assessments. These target quantities require accurate concentration estimates on nonsampled days in a monitoring program. We examined stream flow as a covariate via universal kriging to improve predictions of maximum m-day (m = 1, 7, 14, 30, 60) rolling averages and the 95th percentiles of atrazine concentration in streams where data were collected every 7 or 14 d. The universal kriging predictions were evaluated against the target quantities calculated directly from the daily (or near daily) measured atrazine concentration at 32 sites (89 site-yr) as part of the Atrazine Ecological Monitoring Program in the US corn belt region (2008-2013) and 4 sites (62 site-yr) in Ohio by the National Center for Water Quality Research (1993-2008). Because stream flow data are strongly skewed to the right, 3 transformations of the flow covariate were considered: log transformation, short-term flow anomaly, and normalized Box-Cox transformation. The normalized Box-Cox transformation resulted in predictions of the target quantities that were comparable to those obtained from log-linear interpolation (i.e., linear interpolation on the log scale) for 7-d sampling. However, the predictions appeared to be negatively affected by variability in regression coefficient estimates across different sample realizations of the concentration time series. Therefore, revised models incorporating seasonal covariates and partially or fully constrained regression parameters were investigated, and they were found to provide much improved predictions in comparison with those from log-linear interpolation for all rolling average measures. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:260-273. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Base flow recession from unsaturated-saturated porous media considering lateral unsaturated discharge and aquifer compressibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xiuyu; Zhan, Hongbin; Zhang, You-Kuan; Schilling, Keith

2017-09-01

Unsaturated flow is an important process in base flow recessions and its effect is rarely investigated. A mathematical model for a coupled unsaturated-saturated flow in a horizontally unconfined aquifer with time-dependent infiltrations is presented. The effects of the lateral discharge of the unsaturated zone and aquifer compressibility are specifically taken into consideration. Semianalytical solutions for hydraulic heads and discharges are derived using Laplace transform and Cosine transform. The solutions are compared with solutions of the linearized Boussinesq equation (LB solution) and the linearized Laplace equation (LL solution), respectively. A larger dimensionless constitutive exponent κD (a smaller retention capacity) of the unsaturated zone leads to a smaller discharge during the infiltration period and a larger discharge after the infiltration. The lateral discharge of the unsaturated zone is significant when κD≤1, and becomes negligible when κD≥100. The compressibility of the aquifer has a nonnegligible impact on the discharge at early times. For late times, the power index b of the recession curve -dQ/dt˜ aQb, is 1 and independent of κD, where Q is the base flow and a is a constant lumped aquifer parameter. For early times, b is approximately equal to 3 but it approaches infinity when t→0. The present solution is applied to synthetic and field cases. The present solution matched the synthetic data better than both the LL and LB solutions, with a minimum relative error of 16% for estimate of hydraulic conductivity. The present solution was applied to the observed streamflow discharge in Iowa, and the estimated values of the aquifer parameters were reasonable.

Pollutant Plume Dispersion in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Idealized Urban Roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Colman C. C.; Liu, Chun-Ho

2013-05-01

The Gaussian model of plume dispersion is commonly used for pollutant concentration estimates. However, its major parameters, dispersion coefficients, barely account for terrain configuration and surface roughness. Large-scale roughness elements (e.g. buildings in urban areas) can substantially modify the ground features together with the pollutant transport in the atmospheric boundary layer over urban roughness (also known as the urban boundary layer, UBL). This study is thus conceived to investigate how urban roughness affects the flow structure and vertical dispersion coefficient in the UBL. Large-eddy simulation (LES) is carried out to examine the plume dispersion from a ground-level pollutant (area) source over idealized street canyons for cross flows in neutral stratification. A range of building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios, covering the regimes of skimming flow, wake interference, and isolated roughness, is employed to control the surface roughness. Apart from the widely used aerodynamic resistance or roughness function, the friction factor is another suitable parameter that measures the drag imposed by urban roughness quantitatively. Previous results from laboratory experiments and mathematical modelling also support the aforementioned approach for both two- and three-dimensional roughness elements. Comparing the UBL plume behaviour, the LES results show that the pollutant dispersion strongly depends on the friction factor. Empirical studies reveal that the vertical dispersion coefficient increases with increasing friction factor in the skimming flow regime (lower resistance) but is more uniform in the regimes of wake interference and isolated roughness (higher resistance). Hence, it is proposed that the friction factor and flow regimes could be adopted concurrently for pollutant concentration estimate in the UBL over urban street canyons of different roughness.

An analytical method of estimating turbine performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kochendorfer, Fred D; Nettles, J Cary

1949-01-01

A method is developed by which the performance of a turbine over a range of operating conditions can be analytically estimated from the blade angles and flow areas. In order to use the method, certain coefficients that determine the weight flow and the friction losses must be approximated. The method is used to calculate the performance of the single-stage turbine of a commercial aircraft gas-turbine engine and the calculated performance is compared with the performance indicated by experimental data. For the turbine of the typical example, the assumed pressure losses and the tuning angles give a calculated performance that represents the trends of the experimental performance with reasonable accuracy. The exact agreement between analytical performance and experimental performance is contingent upon the proper selection of a blading-loss parameter.