Risks to aquatic organisms posed by human pharmaceutical use

EPA Science Inventory

In order to help prioritize future research efforts within the US, risks associated with exposure to human prescription pharmaceutical residues in wastewater were estimated from marketing and pharmacological data. Masses of 371 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) dispensed ...

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2016-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2015-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a documented concern for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

Human-associated fecal qPCR measurements and predicted risk of gastrointestinal illness in recreational waters contaminated with raw sewage

EPA Science Inventory

We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

Estimation of the Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, L.; Cucinotta, F. A.

2013-01-01

Current models to estimate radiation risk use the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort that received high doses and high dose rates of radiation. Transferring risks from these high dose rates to the low doses and dose rates received by astronauts in space is a source of uncertainty in our risk calculations. The solid cancer models recommended by BEIR VII [1], UNSCEAR [2], and Preston et al [3] is fitted adequately by a linear dose response model, which implies that low doses and dose rates would be estimated the same as high doses and dose rates. However animal and cell experiments imply there should be curvature in the dose response curve for tumor induction. Furthermore animal experiments that directly compare acute to chronic exposures show lower increases in tumor induction than acute exposures. A dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) has been estimated and applied to transfer risks from the high doses and dose rates of the LSS cohort to low doses and dose rates such as from missions in space. The BEIR VII committee [1] combined DDREF estimates using the LSS cohort and animal experiments using Bayesian methods for their recommendation for a DDREF value of 1.5 with uncertainty. We reexamined the animal data considered by BEIR VII and included more animal data and human chromosome aberration data to improve the estimate for DDREF. Several experiments chosen by BEIR VII were deemed inappropriate for application to human risk models of solid cancer risk. Animal tumor experiments performed by Ullrich et al [4], Alpen et al [5], and Grahn et al [6] were analyzed to estimate the DDREF. Human chromosome aberration experiments performed on a sample of astronauts within NASA were also available to estimate the DDREF. The LSS cohort results reported by BEIR VII were combined with the new radiobiology results using Bayesian methods.

Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium

PubMed Central

Humblet, Marie-France; Vandeputte, Sébastien; Fecher-Bourgeois, Fabienne; Léonard, Philippe; Gosset, Christiane; Balenghien, Thomas; Durand, Benoît; Saegerman, Claude

2016-01-01

This study aimed at estimating, in a prospective scenario, the potential economic impact of a possible epidemic of WNV infection in Belgium, based on 2012 values for the equine and human health sectors, in order to increase preparedness and help decision-makers. Modelling of risk areas, based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the main vector of the virus, allowed us to determine equine and human populations at risk. Characteristics of the different clinical forms of the disease based on past epidemics in Europe allowed morbidity among horses and humans to be estimated. The main costs for the equine sector were vaccination and replacement value of dead or euthanised horses. The choice of the vaccination strategy would have important consequences in terms of cost. Vaccination of the country’s whole population of horses, based on a worst-case scenario, would cost more than EUR 30 million; for areas at risk, the cost would be around EUR 16–17 million. Regarding the impact on human health, short-term costs and socio-economic losses were estimated for patients who developed the neuroinvasive form of the disease, as no vaccine is available yet for humans. Hospital charges of around EUR 3,600 for a case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease and EUR 4,500 for a case of acute flaccid paralysis would be the major financial consequence of an epidemic of West Nile virus infection in humans in Belgium. PMID:27526394

Estimating the economic impact of a possible equine and human epidemic of West Nile virus infection in Belgium.

PubMed

Humblet, Marie-France; Vandeputte, Sébastien; Fecher-Bourgeois, Fabienne; Léonard, Philippe; Gosset, Christiane; Balenghien, Thomas; Durand, Benoît; Saegerman, Claude

2016-08-04

This study aimed at estimating, in a prospective scenario, the potential economic impact of a possible epidemic of WNV infection in Belgium, based on 2012 values for the equine and human health sectors, in order to increase preparedness and help decision-makers. Modelling of risk areas, based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the main vector of the virus, allowed us to determine equine and human populations at risk. Characteristics of the different clinical forms of the disease based on past epidemics in Europe allowed morbidity among horses and humans to be estimated. The main costs for the equine sector were vaccination and replacement value of dead or euthanised horses. The choice of the vaccination strategy would have important consequences in terms of cost. Vaccination of the country's whole population of horses, based on a worst-case scenario, would cost more than EUR 30 million; for areas at risk, the cost would be around EUR 16-17 million. Regarding the impact on human health, short-term costs and socio-economic losses were estimated for patients who developed the neuroinvasive form of the disease, as no vaccine is available yet for humans. Hospital charges of around EUR 3,600 for a case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease and EUR 4,500 for a case of acute flaccid paralysis would be the major financial consequence of an epidemic of West Nile virus infection in humans in Belgium. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2016.

Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

EPA Science Inventory

We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

AN INFORMATIC APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ECOLOGICAL RISKS POSED BY PHARMACEUTICAL USE

EPA Science Inventory

A new method for estimating risks of human prescription pharmaceuticals based on information found in regulatory filings as well as scientific and trade literature is described in a presentation at the Pharmaceuticals in the Environment Workshop in Las Vegas, NV, August 23-25, 20...

Lung cancer risk from PAHs emitted from biomass combustion.

PubMed

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis Α; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Zikopoulos, Dimitrios; Nikolaki, Spyridoula; Kermenidou, Marianthi

2015-02-01

This study deals with the assessment of the cancer risk attributable to PAH exposure, attributable to the increased use of biomass for space heating in Greece in the winter of 2012-2013. Three fractions of particulates (PM1, PM2.5 and PM10) were measured in two sampling sites (urban/residential and traffic-influenced) followed by chemical analysis of 19 PAHs and levoglucosan (used as a biomarker tracer). PAH-induced lung cancer risk was estimated by a comprehensive methodology that incorporated human respiratory tract deposition modelling in order to estimate the toxic equivalent concentration (TEQ) at each target tissue. This allowed us to further differentiate internal exposure and risk by age groups. Results showed that all PM fractions are higher in Greece during the cold months of the year, mainly due to biomass use for space heating. PAH and levoglucosan levels were highly correlated, indicating that particles emitted from biomass combustion are more toxic than PM emitted from other sources. The estimated lung cancer risk was non-negligible for residents close to the urban background monitoring site. Higher risk was estimated for infants and children, due to the higher bodyweight normalized dose and the human respiratory tract (HRT) physiology. HRT structure and physiology in youngsters favor deposition of particles that are smaller and more toxic per unit mass. In all cases, the estimated risk (5.7E-07 and 1.4E-06 for the urban background site and 1.4E-07 to 5.0E-07 for the traffic site) was lower to the one estimated by the conventional methodology (2.8E-06 and 9.7E-07 for the urban background and the traffic site respectively) that is based on Inhalation Unit Risk; the latter assumes that all PAHs adsorbed on particles are taken up by humans. With the methodology proposed herein, the estimated risk presents a 5-7 times difference between the two sampling sites (depending on the age group). These differences could not have been identified had we relied only on conventional risk assessment method. Consequently, the actual cancer risk attributable to PAHs on PM emitted from biomass burning would have been significantly underestimated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AIRBORNE PARTICULATE MATTER AND HUMAN HEALTH: A REVIEW

EPA Science Inventory

Results of recent research show that PM composition and size vary widely with both space and time. Despite the variability in PM characteristics, which are believed to influence human health risks, the observed relative health risk estimates per unit PM mass falls within a narrow...

Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe: implications on blood safety.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Mvere, David A; Chitiyo, McLeod E; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2013-10-01

National Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared. Donor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models. Over the 9 years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n = 116,058) and 0.42% (n = 434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p < 0.0001). The overall mean residual transmission risk of HIV window phase donations in first-time was 1:7384 (range, 1:11,308-1:5356) and in repeat donors it was 1:5496 (range, 1:9943-1:3347). The significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

Evaluating health risks from occupational exposure to pesticides and the regulatory response.

PubMed Central

Woodruff, T J; Kyle, A D; Bois, F Y

1994-01-01

In this study, we used measurements of occupational exposures to pesticides in agriculture to evaluate health risks and analyzed how the federal regulatory program is addressing these risks. Dose estimates developed by the State of California from measured occupational exposures to 41 pesticides were compared to standard indices of acute toxicity (LD50) and chronic effects (reference dose). Lifetime cancer risks were estimated using cancer potencies. Estimated absorbed daily doses for mixers, loaders, and applicators of pesticides ranged from less than 0.0001% to 48% of the estimated human LD50 values, and doses for 10 of 40 pesticides exceeded 1% of the estimated human LD50 values. Estimated lifetime absorbed daily doses ranged from 0.1% to 114,000% of the reference doses developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and doses for 13 of 25 pesticides were above them. Lifetime cancer risks ranged from 1 per million to 1700 per million, and estimates for 12 of 13 pesticides were above 1 per million. Similar results were obtained for field workers and flaggers. For the pesticides examined, exposures pose greater risks of chronic effects than acute effects. Exposure reduction measures, including use of closed mixing systems and personal protective equipment, significantly reduced exposures. Proposed regulations rely primarily on requirements for personal protective equipment and use restrictions to protect workers. Chronic health risks are not considered in setting these requirements. Reviews of pesticides by the federal pesticide regulatory program have had little effect on occupational risks. Policy strategies that offer immediate protection for workers and that are not dependent on extensive review of individual pesticides should be pursued. Images Figure 1. PMID:7713022

BIOACCUMULATION OF POPS IN FISH AND ESTIMATION OF HUMAN DIETARY EXPOSURE AND DOSE

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment process is fundamental in understanding and controlling environmental health risks. Risk assessment includes four steps: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Exposure assessments seek to characteriz...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Spray Irrigation of Dairy Manure Based on an Empirical Fate and Transport Model

PubMed Central

Burch, Tucker R.; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel P.; Kieke, Burney A.; Larson, Rebecca A.; Firnstahl, Aaron D.; Rule, Ana M.

2017-01-01

Background: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. Objectives: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. Methods: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irrigation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. Results: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. Conclusions: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP283 PMID:28885976

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

[Use of a methodology to assess a risk at the stage of substantiating the choice of a ground area for placing industrial enterprises].

PubMed

Perminova, L A; Karpenko, I L; Barkhatova, L A; Chekryzhov, I V

2009-01-01

Human health risk was screened at the stage of supporting the choice of a building site for a petroleum refinery. Based on the calculated exposure levels, the risk to the Buguruslan population was characterized under different conditions: without consideration for the impact of the projected enterprise; with consideration for the pollutants contained in the emissions of the projected enterprise; at the border of an apartment block and at that of an estimated control area in five receptor points. The assessment of a human risk has revealed that the industrial enterprise cannot be sited on this territory and the estimated control area is inadequate due to the high carcinogenic and toxic risk from the formed emission of the projected enterprise.

Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor A.; Munoz, Cesar A.

2007-01-01

This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.

Accounting for pH heterogeneity and variability in modelling human health risks from cadmium in contaminated land.

PubMed

Gay, J Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2009-07-01

The authors have previously published a methodology which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment, incorporating uncertainty, of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land. The model assumes a constant soil to plant concentration factor (CF(veg)) when calculating intake of contaminants. This model is modified here to enhance its use in a situation where CF(veg) varies according to soil pH, as is the case for cadmium. The original methodology uses sequential indicator simulation (SIS) to map soil concentration estimates for one contaminant across a site. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. The proposed improvement involves not only the geostatistical estimation of the contaminant concentration, but also that of soil pH, which in turn leads to a variable CF(veg) estimate which influences the human intake results. The results presented demonstrate that taking pH into account can influence the outcome of the risk assessment greatly. It is proposed that a similar adaptation could be used for other combinations of soil variables which influence CF(veg).

Estimation of 210Po and its risk to human beings due to consumption of marine species at Mumbai, India.

PubMed

Mishra, S; Bhalke, S; Pandit, G G; Puranik, V D

2009-07-01

(210)Po was estimated in the edible muscle and soft tissue of 15 different marine species (fish, crab, prawn and bivalve) collected from Trans-Thane Creek area (Trombay) and Thane. Potential risks associated with consumption of marine organisms due to (210)Po collected from this particular area to human beings were assessed. Estimation of (210)Po was carried out using radiochemical separation and alpha spectrometric technique. The concentration of (210)Po was found to vary from 0.18 to 10.9 Bqkg(-1) wet wt in different biota species and maximum concentrations were observed in bivalves. The variations in (210)Po concentration in different species are mainly due to difference in metabolism and feeding habits. The daily intake and individual dose of (210)Po to human beings through biota consumption was calculated and found to be 31.89 mBqd(-1) and 19.44 microSvyr(-1), respectively. An assessment of the risk on human beings due to consumption of marine organism was undertaken using carcinogenic slope factor for (210)Po. 5th, 50th and 95th percentile of life time risk was calculated to be 9.74E-06, 4.39E-05 and 2.12E-04, respectively.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in United Kingdom patients treated with human pituitary growth hormone.

PubMed

Swerdlow, A J; Higgins, C D; Adlard, P; Jones, M E; Preece, M A

2003-09-23

To investigate risk factors for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in patients in the United Kingdom treated with human pituitary growth hormone (hGH). Incidence rates of CJD, based on person-year denominators, were assessed in a cohort of 1,848 patients treated with hGH in the United Kingdom from 1959 through 1985 and followed to the end of 2000. CJD developed in 38 patients. Risk of CJD was significantly increased by treatment with hGH prepared by the Wilhelmi method of extraction from human pituitaries. Risk was further raised if this treatment was administered at ages 8 to 10 years. The peak risk of CJD was estimated to occur 20 years after first exposure, and the estimated lifetime cumulative risk of CJD in Wilhelmi-treated patients was 4.5%. Size-exclusion chromatography, used in non-Wilhelmi preparation methods, may prevent CJD infection. Susceptibility to CJD may vary with age, and susceptibility may be present in only a few percent of the population.

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Schnase, J.L.

2006-01-01

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens.

PubMed

Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B

2003-05-25

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis.

Fundamentals of health risk assessment. Use, derivation, validity and limitations of safety indices.

PubMed

Putzrath, R M; Wilson, J D

1999-04-01

We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the "NAS paradigm." Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as "Acceptable Daily Intake," "Reference Dose," and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Risk is characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U.S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's "Proposition 65," where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of "conventional air pollutants." These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Comparison of human and southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) health risks for infection with protozoa in nearshore waters.

PubMed

Adell, A D; McBride, G; Wuertz, S; Conrad, P A; Smith, W A

2016-11-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. are waterborne, fecally-transmitted pathogens that cause economic loss due to gastroenteritis and beach closures. We applied quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the health risks for humans and sea otters due to waterborne exposure of Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. when swimming in three types of surface waters: river, stormwater and wastewater effluent during the wet and dry seasons in the central coast of California. This is the first application of QMRA to estimate both the probability of infection in Southern sea otters and the probability of illness in humans, using microbial source tracking (MST) as a variable. Children swimming close to stormwater discharges had an estimated Cryptosporidium-associated illness probability that exceeded the accepted U.S. EPA criteria (32 illnesses/1000 swimmers or 3.2%). Based on the assumption that sea otters are as susceptible as humans to Cryptosporidium infection, the infection probabilities were close to 2% and 16% when sea otters were swimming at the end of points of rivers and stormwater discharges, respectively. In the case of Giardia, infection probabilities of 11% and 23% were estimated for sea otters swimming at the end of point of wastewater discharges, assuming that sea otters are as susceptible as gerbils and humans, respectively. The results of this QMRA suggest that 1) humans and sea otters are at risk when swimming at outflow sites for rivers, stormwater and treated wastewater effluent; 2) reduced loads of viable protozoan cysts and oocysts in recreational water can lessen the probability of infection of humans and sea otters; and 3) the risk of infection of humans and sea otters can be reduced with the treatment of wastewater to decrease oocyst and cyst viability before effluent is released into the sea. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Entomologic index for human risk of Lyme disease.

PubMed

Mather, T N; Nicholson, M C; Donnelly, E F; Matyas, B T

1996-12-01

An entomologic index based on density estimates of Lyme disease spirochete-infected nymphal deer ticks (lxodes scapularis) was developed to assess human risk of Lyme disease. The authors used a standardized protocol to determine tick density and infection in numerous forested sites in six Rhode Island towns. An entomologic risk index calculated for each town was compared with the number of human Lyme disease cases reported to the Rhode Island State Health Department for the same year. A strong positive relation between entomologic risk index and the Lyme disease case rate for each town suggested that the entomologic index was predictive of Lyme disease risk.

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

Surface water risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Teklu, Berhan M; Adriaanse, Paulien I; Ter Horst, Mechteld M S; Deneer, John W; Van den Brink, Paul J

2015-03-01

Scenarios for future use in the pesticide registration procedure in Ethiopia were designed for 3 separate Ethiopian locations, which are aimed to be protective for the whole of Ethiopia. The scenarios estimate concentrations in surface water resulting from agricultural use of pesticides for a small stream and for two types of small ponds. Seven selected pesticides were selected since they were estimated to bear the highest risk to humans on the basis of volume of use, application rate and acute and chronic human toxicity, assuming exposure as a result of the consumption of surface water. Potential ecotoxicological risks were not considered as a selection criterion at this stage. Estimates of exposure concentrations in surface water were established using modelling software also applied in the EU registration procedure (PRZM and TOXSWA). Input variables included physico-chemical properties, and data such as crop calendars, irrigation schedules, meteorological information and detailed application data which were specifically tailored to the Ethiopian situation. The results indicate that for all the pesticides investigated the acute human risk resulting from the consumption of surface water is low to negligible, whereas agricultural use of chlorothalonil, deltamethrin, endosulfan and malathion in some crops may result in medium to high risk to aquatic species. The predicted environmental concentration estimates are based on procedures similar to procedures used at the EU level and in the USA. Addition of aquatic macrophytes as an ecotoxicological endpoint may constitute a welcome future addition to the risk assessment procedure. Implementation of the methods used for risk characterization constitutes a good step forward in the pesticide registration procedure in Ethiopia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stott, Peter A.; Stone, D. A.; Allen, M. R.

2004-12-01

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest AD 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate-for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere-because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave. Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Evaluating Potential Human Health Risks Associated with the Development of Utility-Scale Solar Energy Facilities on Contaminated Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng, J. -J.; Chang, Y. -S.; Hartmann, H.

2013-09-01

This report presents a general methodology for obtaining preliminary estimates of the potential human health risks associated with developing a utility-scale solar energy facility on a contaminated site, based on potential exposures to contaminants in soils (including transport of those contaminants into the air).

MOVING FROM EXTERNAL EXPOSURE CONCENTRATION TO INTERNAL DOSE: DURATION EXTRAPOLATION BASED ON PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC-MODEL DERIVED ESTIMATES OF INTERNAL DOSE

EPA Science Inventory

The potential human health risk(s) from exposure to chemicals under conditions for which adequate human or animal data are not available must frequently be assessed. Exposure scenario is particularly important for the acute neurotoxic effects of volatile organic compounds (VOCs)...

Cross-species integration of human health and ecological endpoints into risk assessment using the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure to environmental contaminants can influence both human health and ecological endpoints. Chemical risk assessments combine exposure and toxicity data to estimate the likelihood of adverse outcomes for these endpoints, but are rarely conducted in a manner that integrates ...

Health Assessment Document for 1,3-Butadiene (External ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene, a gas used commercially in the production of various resins and plastics, concludes that 1,3-butadiene is a known human carcinogen, based on three types of evidence: 1) excess leukemias in workers occupationally exposed to 1,3-butadiene (by inhalation), 2) occurrence of a variety of tumors in mice and rats by inhalation, and 3) evidence in animals and humans that 1,3-butadiene is metabolized into genotoxic metabolites. The best estimate of human lifetime extra cancer risk from chronic exposure to 1,3-butadiene is 9 X 10-3 per ppm based on a linear extrapolation of the increased leukemia risks observed in occupationally exposed workers. The corresponding estimate of the chronic exposure level of 1,3-butadiene resulting in an extra cancer risk of 10-6 (i.e., one in a million) is 0.1 ppb.1,3-Butadiene also causes a variety of reproductive and developmental effects in mice and rats; no human data on these effects are available. There are insufficient data from which to draw any conclusions on potentially sensitive subpopulations.

Quantifying Cancer Risk from Radiation.

PubMed

Keil, Alexander P; Richardson, David B

2017-12-06

Complex statistical models fitted to data from studies of atomic bomb survivors are used to estimate the human health effects of ionizing radiation exposures. We describe and illustrate an approach to estimate population risks from ionizing radiation exposure that relaxes many assumptions about radiation-related mortality. The approach draws on developments in methods for causal inference. The results offer a different way to quantify radiation's effects and show that conventional estimates of the population burden of excess cancer at high radiation doses are driven strongly by projecting outside the range of current data. Summary results obtained using the proposed approach are similar in magnitude to those obtained using conventional methods, although estimates of radiation-related excess cancers differ for many age, sex, and dose groups. At low doses relevant to typical exposures, the strength of evidence in data is surprisingly weak. Statements regarding human health effects at low doses rely strongly on the use of modeling assumptions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Human Health Risk Assessment Strategic Research Action Plan 2016-2019

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has designed the HHRA program to develop and apply state-of-the-science risk assessment methods to estimate risks from exposures to individual chemicals, chemical mixtures, and mixtures of chemical of chemicals and non-chemical stressors.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

2015-09-01

The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

Risk estimation to human health caused by the mercury content of Sushi and Sashimi sold in Japanese restaurants in Brazil.

PubMed

Alves, Jeanne Clécia; Lima de Paiva, Esther; Milani, Raquel Fernanda; Bearzoti, Eduardo; Morgano, Marcelo Antonio; Diego Quintaes, Késia

2017-06-03

Although fish is a healthy alternative for meat, it can be a vehicle for mercury (Hg), including in its most toxic organic form, methylmercury (MeHg). The objective of the present study was to estimate the risk to human health caused by the consumption of sushi and sashimi as commercialized by Japanese food restaurants in the city of Campinas (SP, Brazil). The total Hg content was determined by atomic absorption spectrometry with thermal decomposition and amalgamation, and the MeHg content calculated considering that 90% of the total Hg is in the organic form. The health risk was estimated from the values for the provisional tolerable weekly ingestion (PTWI) by both adults and children. The mean concentrations for total Hg were: 147.99, 6.13, and 3.42 µg kg -1 in the tuna, kani, and salmon sushi samples, respectively, and 589.09, 85.09, and 11.38 µg kg -1 in the tuna, octopus and salmon sashimi samples, respectively. The tuna samples showed the highest Hg concentrations. One portion of tuna sashimi exceeded the PTWI value for MeHg established for children and adults. The estimate of risk for human health indicated that the level of toxicity depended on the type of fish and size of the portion consumed.

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2010-01-01

There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Antimicrobial-Resistant Foodborne Infections in Humans Due to Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Usage in Dairy Cows.

PubMed

Singer, Randall S; Ruegg, Pamela L; Bauman, Dale E

2017-07-01

Recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) is a production-enhancing technology that allows the dairy industry to produce milk more efficiently. Concern has been raised that cows supplemented with rbST are at an increased risk of developing clinical mastitis, which would potentially increase the use of antimicrobial agents and increase human illnesses associated with antimicrobial-resistant bacterial pathogens delivered through the dairy beef supply. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative risk assessment to estimate the potential increased risk of human infection with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and subsequent adverse health outcomes as a result of rbST usage in dairy cattle. The quantitative risk assessment included the following steps: (i) release of antimicrobial-resistant organisms from the farm, (ii) exposure of humans via consumption of contaminated beef products, and (iii) consequence of the antimicrobial-resistant infection. The model focused on ceftiofur (parenteral and intramammary) and oxytetracycline (parenteral) treatment of clinical mastitis in dairy cattle and tracked the bacteria Campylobacter spp., Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica, and Escherichia coli in the gastrointestinal tract of the cow. Parameter estimates were developed to be maximum risk to overestimate the risk to humans. The excess number of cows in the U.S. dairy herd that were predicted to carry resistant bacteria at slaughter due to rbST administration was negligible. The total number of excess human illnesses caused by resistant bacteria due to rbST administration was also predicted to be negligible with all risks considerably less than one event per 1 billion people at risk per year for all bacteria. The results indicate a high probability that the use of rbST according to label instructions presents a negligible risk for increasing the number of human illnesses and subsequent adverse outcomes associated with antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or E. coli .

A model for assessing the risk of human trafficking on a local level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colegrove, Amanda

Human trafficking is a human rights violation that is difficult to quantify. Models for estimating the number of victims of trafficking presented by previous researchers depend on inconsistent, poor quality data. As an intermediate step to help current efforts by nonprofits to combat human trafficking, this project presents a model that is not dependent on quantitative data specific to human trafficking, but rather profiles the risk of human trafficking at the local level through causative factors. Businesses, indicated by the literature, were weighted based on the presence of characteristics that increase the likelihood of trafficking in persons. The mean risk was calculated by census tract to reveal the multiplicity of risk levels in both rural and urban settings. Results indicate that labor trafficking may be a more diffuse problem in Missouri than sex trafficking. Additionally, spatial patterns of risk remained largely the same regardless of adjustments made to the model.

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-01-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Annual report, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-03-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Metals and arsenic in fish from a Ramsar site under past and present human pressures: Consumption risk factors to the local population.

PubMed

Gusso-Choueri, Paloma Kachel; Araújo, Giuliana Seraphim de; Cruz, Ana Carolina Feitosa; Stremel, Tatiana Roselena de Oliveira; Campos, Sandro Xavier de; Abessa, Denis Moledo de Souza; Oliveira Ribeiro, Ciro Alberto de; Choueri, Rodrigo Brasil

2018-07-01

The risk of metals and As in seafood for traditional populations living in a Marine Protected Areas (MPA) is seldom assessed, although the risk of human exposure to contaminants is one of the indicators associated with the socioeconomic goals of MPAs. The current study aimed to estimate the potential risk of some metals (Cd, Pb, and Zn) and arsenic (As) for human health through the ingestion of fish locally harvested in a Ramsar site, the Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe Environmental Protected Area (APA-CIP). Previous studies showed environmental impacts in this area due to former mining activities and urbanization. Cathorops spixii, a catfish largely consumed by the local population, was collected along the estuary in three seasons with different rain regimes. Metals and As loads in muscle tissue were quantified and it was estimated (i) the target hazard quotient (THQ) and (ii) the daily intake (EDI) for metals and As, (iii) the cancer risk (CRisk) only for As, and (iv) the number of eligible meals per month. Cd, Pb, and As were found at concentrations above action levels for human consumption. Depending on the level of exposure of the local population, the consumption of C. spixii may pose risk to human health. Highest THQs were estimated for fish collected in sites closer to the main contamination sources in the APA-CIP, i.e. the mouth of Ribeira de Iguape River (P1) and the city of Cananéia (P4, P5, and P6). Arsenic showed high levels of cancer risk, although restricted to the area close to the city. The exposure of the local population to metal and As contaminated seafood cannot be disregarded in environmental studies and management of the APA-CIP. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Guidance on Cumulative Risk Assessment of Pesticide Chemicals that have a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document provides guidance to OPP scientists for evaluating and estimating the potential human risks associated with such multichemical and multipathway exposures to pesticides. This process is referred to as cumulative risk assessment.

NASA Occupant Protection Standards Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somers, Jeffrey; Gernhardt, Michael; Lawrence, Charles

2012-01-01

Historically, spacecraft landing systems have been tested with human volunteers, because analytical methods for estimating injury risk were insufficient. These tests were conducted with flight-like suits and seats to verify the safety of the landing systems. Currently, NASA uses the Brinkley Dynamic Response Index to estimate injury risk, although applying it to the NASA environment has drawbacks: (1) Does not indicate severity or anatomical location of injury (2) Unclear if model applies to NASA applications. Because of these limitations, a new validated, analytical approach was desired. Leveraging off of the current state of the art in automotive safety and racing, a new approach was developed. The approach has several aspects: (1) Define the acceptable level of injury risk by injury severity (2) Determine the appropriate human surrogate for testing and modeling (3) Mine existing human injury data to determine appropriate Injury Assessment Reference Values (IARV). (4) Rigorously Validate the IARVs with sub-injurious human testing (5) Use validated IARVs to update standards and vehicle requirement

Age-Related Differences in Susceptibility to Carcinogenesis. II. Approaches for Application and Uncertainty Analyses for Individual Genetically Acting Carcinogens

PubMed Central

Hattis, Dale; Goble, Robert; Chu, Margaret

2005-01-01

In an earlier report we developed a quantitative likelihood-based analysis of the differences in sensitivity of rodents to mutagenic carcinogens across three life stages (fetal, birth to weaning, and weaning to 60 days) relative to exposures in adult life. Here we draw implications for assessing human risks for full lifetime exposures, taking into account three types of uncertainties in making projections from the rodent data: uncertainty in the central estimates of the life-stage–specific sensitivity factors estimated earlier, uncertainty from chemical-to-chemical differences in life-stage–specific sensitivities for carcinogenesis, and uncertainty in the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods. Among the uncertainties analyzed, the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods is most important quantitatively (a range of several-fold in estimates of the duration of the human equivalent of the highest sensitivity “birth to weaning” period in rodents). The combined effects of these uncertainties are estimated with Monte Carlo analyses. Overall, the estimated population arithmetic mean risk from lifetime exposures at a constant milligrams per kilogram body weight level to a generic mutagenic carcinogen is about 2.8-fold larger than expected from adult-only exposure with 5–95% confidence limits of 1.5-to 6-fold. The mean estimates for the 0- to 2-year and 2- to 15-year periods are about 35–55% larger than the 10- and 3-fold sensitivity factor adjustments recently proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The present results are based on data for only nine chemicals, including five mutagens. Risk inferences will be altered as data become available for other chemicals. PMID:15811844

Estimated human health risks from recreational exposures to stormwater runoff containing animal faecal material

EPA Science Inventory

Scientific evidence supporting recreational water quality benchmarks primarily stems from epidemiological studies conducted at beaches impacted by human fecal sources. Epidemiological studies conducted at locations impacted by non-human faecal sources have provided ambiguous and ...

Systematic review of brucellosis in Kenya: disease frequency in humans and animals and risk factors for human infection.

PubMed

Njeru, J; Wareth, G; Melzer, F; Henning, K; Pletz, M W; Heller, R; Neubauer, H

2016-08-22

Brucellosis is a debilitating zoonotic disease affecting humans and animals. A comprehensive, evidence-based assessment of literature and officially available data on animal and human brucellosis for Kenya are missing. The aim of the current review is to provide frequency estimates of brucellosis in humans, animals and risk factors for human infection, and help to understand the current situation in Kenya. A total of accessible 36 national and international publications on brucellosis from 1916 to 2016 were reviewed to estimate the frequency of brucellosis in humans and animals, and strength of associations between potential risk factors and seropositivity in humans in Kenya. The conducted studies revealed only few and fragmented evidence of the disease spatial and temporal distribution in an epidemiological context. Bacteriological evidence revealed the presence of Brucella (B.) abortus and B. melitensis in cattle and human patients, whilst B. suis was isolated from wild rodents only. Similar evidence for Brucella spp infection in small ruminants and other animal species is unavailable. The early and most recent serological studies revealed that animal brucellosis is widespread in all animal production systems. The animal infection pressure in these systems has remained strong due to mixing of large numbers of animals from different geographical regions, movement of livestock in search of pasture, communal sharing of grazing land, and the concentration of animals around water points. Human cases are more likely seen in groups occupationally or domestically exposed to livestock or practicing risky social-cultural activities such as consumption of raw blood and dairy products, and slaughtering of animals within the homesteads. Many brucellosis patients are misdiagnosed and probably mistreated due to lack of reliable laboratory diagnostic support resulting to adverse health outcomes of the patients and routine disease underreporting. We found no studies of disease incidence estimates or disease control efforts. The risk for re-emergence and transmission of brucellosis is evident as a result of the co-existence of animal husbandry activities and social-cultural activities that promote brucellosis transmission. Well-designed countrywide, evidence-based, and multidisciplinary studies of brucellosis at the human/livestock/wildlife interface are needed. These could help to generate reliable frequency and potential impact estimates, to identify Brucella reservoirs, and to propose control strategies of proven efficacy.

A study of lens opacification for a Mars mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, J. L.; Wilson, J. W.; Cox, A. B.; Lett, J. T.

1991-01-01

A method based on risk-related cross sections is used to estimate risks of 'stationary' cataracts caused by radiation exposures during extended missions in deep space. Estimates of the even more important risk of late degenerative cataractogenesis are made on the basis of the limited data available. Data on lenticular opacification in the New Zealand white rabbit, an animal model from which such results can be extrapolated to humans, are analyzed by the Langley cosmic ray shielding code (HZETRN) to generate estimates of stationary cataract formation resulting from a Mars mission. The effects of the composition of shielding material and the relationship between risk and LET are given, and the effects of target fragmentation on the risk coefficients are evaluated explicitly.

Risk assessment guidance for Superfund: Volume 1 -- Human health evaluation manual. Supplement to Part A: Community involvement in Superfund risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1999-03-01

The purpose of the guidance document is to provide the site team--risk assessor, remedial project manager (RPM), and community involvement coordinator--with information to improve community involvement in the Superfund risk assessment process. Specifically, the document: provides suggestions for how Superfund staff and community members can work together during the early stages of Superfund cleanup; identifies where, within the framework of the human health risk assessment methodology, community input can augment and improve EPA`s estimates of exposure and risk; recommends questions the site team should ask the community; and illustrates why community involvement is valuable during the human health assessment atmore » Superfund sites.« less

Estimating the risks of multiple, covarying stressors in the National Lakes Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The National Lakes Assessment (NLA) used relative and attributable risks to measure the apparent nationwide effects of excess nitrogen, reduced lakeshore habitat, and other stressors, on planktonic assemblages in lakes. The risk measures, borrowed from human health research,...

Human health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in smoked fish species from markets in Southern Nigeria.

PubMed

Tongo, Isioma; Ogbeide, Ozekeke; Ezemonye, Lawrence

2017-01-01

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) levels in four commonly consumed smoked fish species from markets in Southern Nigeria were assessed to evaluate possible human health risks associated with consumption. Varying levels of PAH congeners were observed in the fish tissues with the highest total concentration of PAHs in Scomber scombrus . High concentrations of benzo(a)pyrene was observed in Clarias gariepinus and Ethmalosa fimbriata with values above the guideline value of 0.05 mg/kg. The Dietary Daily Intake (DDI) value for total PAHs (∑PAHs) was highest for S. scombrus while the DDI value for the total carcinogenic PAHs (∑CPAHs) was highest for E. fimbriata . Carcinogenic human health risk assessment using carcinogenic toxic equivalents (TEQ), indicated that consumption of E. fimbriata has a higher potential to cause carcinogenic risks. TEQ values for all the fish species were however, below the estimated screening value (SV) of 3.556 mg/kg, while the estimated cumulative excess cancer risk (ECR) for E. fimbriata and C. gariepinus and PAH4 index for all the assessed fish species exceeded threshold values indicating potential carcinogenic risk from consumption.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

2015-09-25

The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottledmore » mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.« less

Validation of a novel air toxic risk model with air monitoring.

PubMed

Pratt, Gregory C; Dymond, Mary; Ellickson, Kristie; Thé, Jesse

2012-01-01

Three modeling systems were used to estimate human health risks from air pollution: two versions of MNRiskS (for Minnesota Risk Screening), and the USEPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). MNRiskS is a unique cumulative risk modeling system used to assess risks from multiple air toxics, sources, and pathways on a local to a state-wide scale. In addition, ambient outdoor air monitoring data were available for estimation of risks and comparison with the modeled estimates of air concentrations. Highest air concentrations and estimated risks were generally found in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and lowest risks in undeveloped rural areas. Emissions from mobile and area (nonpoint) sources created greater estimated risks than emissions from point sources. Highest cancer risks were via ingestion pathway exposures to dioxins and related compounds. Diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde created the highest estimated inhalation health impacts. Model-estimated air concentrations were generally highest for NATA and lowest for the AERMOD version of MNRiskS. This validation study showed reasonable agreement between available measurements and model predictions, although results varied among pollutants, and predictions were often lower than measurements. The results increased confidence in identifying pollutants, pathways, geographic areas, sources, and receptors of potential concern, and thus provide a basis for informing pollution reduction strategies and focusing efforts on specific pollutants (diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde), geographic areas (urban centers), and source categories (nonpoint sources). The results heighten concerns about risks from food chain exposures to dioxins and PAHs. Risk estimates were sensitive to variations in methodologies for treating emissions, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and toxicity. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Screening-Level Approach for Comparing Risks Affecting Aquatic Ecosystem Services over Socio-Environmental Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harmon, T. C.; Conde, D.; Villamizar, S. R.; Reid, B.; Escobar, J.; Rusak, J.; Hoyos, N.; Scordo, F.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; Velez, M.

2015-12-01

Assessing risks to aquatic ecosystems services (ES) is challenging and time-consuming, and effective strategies for prioritizing more detailed assessment efforts are needed. We propose a screening-level risk analysis (SRA) approach that scales ES risk using socioeconomic and environmental indices to capture anthropic and climatic pressures, as well as the capacity for institutional responses to those pressures. The method considers ES within a watershed context, and uses expert input to prioritize key services and the associated pressures that threaten them. The SRA approach focuses on estimating ES risk affect factors, which are the sum of the intensity factors for all hazards or pressures affecting the ES. We estimate the pressure intensity factors in a novel manner, basing them on the nation's (i) human development (proxied by Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, IHDI), (ii) environmental regulatory and monitoring state (Environmental Performance Index, EPI) and (iii) the current level of water stress in the watershed (baseline water stress, BWS). Anthropic intensity factors for future conditions are derived from the baseline values based on the nation's 10-year trend in IHDI and EPI; ES risks in nations with stronger records of change are rewarded more/penalized less in estimates for good/poor future management scenarios. Future climatic intensity factors are tied to water stress estimates based on two general circulation model (GCM) outcomes. We demonstrate the method for an international array of six sites representing a wide range of socio-environmental settings. The outcomes illustrate novel consequences of the scaling scheme. Risk affect factors may be greater in a highly developed region under intense climatic pressure, or in less well-developed regions due to human factors (e.g., poor environmental records). As a screening-level tool, the SRA approach offers considerable promise for ES risk comparisons among watersheds and regions so that detailed assessment, management and mitigation efforts can be effectively prioritized.

Health benefits and potential risks related to consumption of fish or fish oil.

PubMed

Sidhu, Kirpal S

2003-12-01

The nutritional benefits of fish consumption relate to the utilization of proteins of high biological value, as well as certain minerals and vitamins that fish provide. Fish or fish oil contains omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that appear to play several useful roles for human health. Conversely, some carcinogenic contaminants are also stored in the adipose tissue of fish. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential health benefits and risks related to the consumption of fish or fish oil. Health benefits related to the consumption of fish or omega-3 PUFAs were obtained by an extensive literature search. Potential health risks related to carcinogenic contaminants (e.g., dioxin, PCB, etc.) in fish were estimated using the U.S. EPA-approved cancer risk assessment guidelines. Potential health risk estimates were evaluated by comparing them with the acceptable excess risk level of 10(-6)-10(-4). Scientific data indicate that the consumption of fish or fish oil containing omega-3 PUFAs reduces the risk of coronary heart disease, decreases mild hypertension, and prevents certain cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death. Risk estimates in humans for carcinogenic environmental contaminants in fish ranged from an excess risk level of 3x10(-6)-9x10(-4). These risk estimates appeared to meet the acceptable excess risk level criteria. Therefore, consumption of fish in accordance with the State of Michigan Fish Advisory Guidelines is safe and should be encouraged. The top 11 fish species [e.g., sardines, mackerel, herring (Atlantic and Pacific), lake trout, salmon (Chinook, Atlantic, and Sockeye), anchovy (European), sablefish, and bluefish] provide an adequate amount of omega-3 PUFAs (2.7-7.5g/meal) and appear to meet the nutritional recommendation of the American Heart Association.

Managing Air Quality - Human Health, Environmental and Economic Assessments

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Human health and environmental assessments characterize health and environmental risks associated with exposure to pollution. Economic assessments evaluate the cost and economic impact of a policy or regulation & can estimate economic benefits.

Modeling risk of occupational zoonotic influenza infection in swine workers.

PubMed

Paccha, Blanca; Jones, Rachael M; Gibbs, Shawn; Kane, Michael J; Torremorell, Montserrat; Neira-Ramirez, Victor; Rabinowitz, Peter M

2016-08-01

Zoonotic transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) between swine and workers in swine production facilities may play a role in the emergence of novel influenza strains with pandemic potential. Guidelines to prevent transmission of influenza to swine workers have been developed but there is a need for evidence-based decision-making about protective measures such as respiratory protection. A mathematical model was applied to estimate the risk of occupational IAV exposure to swine workers by contact and airborne transmission, and to evaluate the use of respirators to reduce transmission.  The Markov model was used to simulate the transport and exposure of workers to IAV in a swine facility. A dose-response function was used to estimate the risk of infection. This approach is similar to methods previously used to estimate the risk of infection in human health care settings. This study uses concentration of virus in air from field measurements collected during outbreaks of influenza in commercial swine facilities, and analyzed by polymerase chain reaction.  It was found that spending 25 min working in a barn during an influenza outbreak in a swine herd could be sufficient to cause zoonotic infection in a worker. However, this risk estimate was sensitive to estimates of viral infectivity to humans. Wearing an excellent fitting N95 respirator reduced this risk, but with high aerosol levels the predicted risk of infection remained high under certain assumptions.  The results of this analysis indicate that under the conditions studied, swine workers are at risk of zoonotic influenza infection. The use of an N95 respirator could reduce such risk. These findings have implications for risk assessment and preventive programs targeting swine workers. The exact level of risk remains uncertain, since our model may have overestimated the viability or infectivity of IAV. Additionally, the potential for partial immunity in swine workers associated with repeated low-dose exposures or from previous infection with other influenza strains was not considered. Further studies should explore these uncertainties.

Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment model for norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains.

PubMed

Bouwknegt, Martijn; Verhaelen, Katharina; Rzeżutka, Artur; Kozyra, Iwona; Maunula, Leena; von Bonsdorff, Carl-Henrik; Vantarakis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Petros; Petrovic, Tamas; Lazic, Sava; Pavlik, Ivo; Vasickova, Petra; Willems, Kris A; Havelaar, Arie H; Rutjes, Saskia A; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2015-04-02

Fresh produce that is contaminated with viruses may lead to infection and viral gastroenteritis or hepatitis when consumed raw. It is thus important to reduce virus numbers on these foods. Prevention of virus contamination in fresh produce production and processing may be more effective than treatment, as sufficient virus removal or inactivation by post-harvest treatment requires high doses that may adversely affect food quality. To date knowledge of the contribution of various potential contamination routes is lacking. A risk assessment model was developed for human norovirus, hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus in raspberry and salad vegetable supply chains to quantify contributions of potential contamination sources to the contamination of produce at retail. These models were used to estimate public health risks. Model parameterization was based on monitoring data from European supply chains and literature data. No human pathogenic viruses were found in the soft fruit supply chains; human adenovirus (hAdV) was detected, which was additionally monitored as an indicator of fecal pollution to assess the contribution of potential contamination points. Estimated risks per serving of lettuce based on the models were 3×10(-4) (6×10(-6)-5×10(-3)) for NoV infection and 3×10(-8) (7×10(-10)-3×10(-6)) for hepatitis A jaundice. The contribution to virus contamination of hand-contact was larger as compared with the contribution of irrigation, the conveyor belt or the water used for produce rinsing. In conclusion, viral contamination in the lettuce and soft fruit supply chains occurred and estimated health risks were generally low. Nevertheless, the 97.5% upper limit for the estimated NoV contamination of lettuce suggested that infection risks up to 50% per serving might occur. Our study suggests that attention to full compliance for hand hygiene will improve fresh produce safety related to virus risks most as compared to the other examined sources, given the monitoring results. This effect will be further aided by compliance with other hygiene and water quality regulations in production and processing facilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human and bovine viruses and bacteria at three Great Lakes beaches: Environmental variable associations and health risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corsi, Steven R.; Borchardt, Mark A.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Lutz, Michelle A.; McDermott, Colleen M.; Busse, Kimberly M.; Kleinheinz, Gregory; Feng, Xiaoping; Zhu, Jun

2016-01-01

Waterborne pathogens were measured at three beaches in Lake Michigan, environmental factors for predicting pathogen concentrations were identified, and the risk of swimmer infection and illness was estimated. Waterborne pathogens were detected in 96% of samples collected at three Lake Michigan beaches in summer, 2010. Samples were quantified for 22 pathogens in four microbial categories (human viruses, bovine viruses, protozoa, and pathogenic bacteria). All beaches had detections of human and bovine viruses and pathogenic bacteria indicating influence of multiple contamination sources at these beaches. Occurrence ranged from 40 to 87% for human viruses, 65–87% for pathogenic bacteria, and 13–35% for bovine viruses. Enterovirus, adenovirus A, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter jejuni, bovine polyomavirus, and bovine rotavirus A were present most frequently. Variables selected in multiple regression models used to explore environmental factors that influence pathogens included wave direction, cloud cover, currents, and water temperature. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment was done for C. jejuni, Salmonella spp., and enteroviruses to estimate risk of infection and illness. Median infection risks for one-time swimming events were approximately 3 × 10–5, 7 × 10–9, and 3 × 10–7 for C. jejuni, Salmonella spp., and enteroviruses, respectively. Results highlight the importance of investigating multiple pathogens within multiple categories to avoid underestimating the prevalence and risk of waterborne pathogens.

Human health risk assessment of chloroxylenol in liquid hand soap and dishwashing soap used by consumers and health-care professionals.

PubMed

Yost, Lisa J; Rodricks, Joseph D; Turnbull, Duncan; DeLeo, Paul C; Nash, J Frank; Quiñones-Rivera, Antonio; Carlson, Pete A

2016-10-01

A quantitative human risk assessment of chloroxylenol was conducted for liquid hand and dishwashing soap products used by consumers and health-care workers. The toxicological data for chloroxylenol indicate lack of genotoxicity, no evidence of carcinogenicity, and minimal systemic toxicity. No observed adverse effect levels (NOAEL) were established from chronic toxicity studies, specifically a carcinogenicity study that found no cancer excess (18 mg/kg-day) and studies of developmental and reproductive toxicity (100 mg/kg-day). Exposure to chloroxylenol for adults and children was estimated for two types of rinse-off cleaning products, one liquid hand soap, and two dishwashing products. The identified NOAELs were used together with exposure estimates to derive margin of exposure (MOE) estimates for chloroxylenol (i.e., estimates of exposure over NOAELs). These estimates were designed with conservative assumptions and likely overestimate exposure and risk (i.e., highest frequency, 100% dermal penetration). The resulting MOEs ranged from 178 to over 100, 000, 000 indicating negligibly small potential for harm related to consumer or health-care worker exposure to chloroxylenol in liquid soaps used in dish washing and hand washing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Problems and solutions in the estimation of genetic risks from radiation and chemicals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, W. L.

1980-01-01

Extensive investigations with mice on the effects of various physical and biological factors, such as dose rate, sex and cell stage, on radiation-induced mutation have provided an evaluation of the genetics hazards of radiation in man. The mutational results obtained in both sexes with progressive lowering of the radiation dose rate have permitted estimation of the mutation frequency expected under the low-level radiation conditions of most human exposure. Supplementing the studies on mutation frequency are investigations on the phenotypic effects of mutations in mice, particularly anatomical disorders of the skeleton, which allow an estimation of the degree of human handicapmore » associated with the occurrence of parallel defects in man. Estimation of the genetic risk from chemical mutagens is much more difficult, and the research is much less advanced. Results on transmitted mutations in mice indicate a poor correlation with mutation induction in non-mammalian organisms.« less

Estimating Toxicity-Related Biological Pathway Altering Doses for High-Throughput Chemical Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We describe a framework for estimating the human dose at which a chemical significantly alters a biological pathway in vivo, making use of in vitro assay data and an in vitro derived pharmacokinetic model, coupled with estimates of population variability and uncertainty. The q...

Human exposure and risk assessment to airborne pesticides in a rural French community.

PubMed

Coscollà, Clara; López, Antonio; Yahyaoui, Abderrazak; Colin, Patrice; Robin, Corine; Poinsignon, Quentin; Yusà, Vicent

2017-04-15

Outdoor air samples collected during the pesticide agricultural application period (spring and summer) from a rural community in the Centre Region (France) were analyzed to investigate temporal variation of atmospheric pesticide levels (2006-2013) and human inhalation exposure in adults, children and infants. The most frequently detected pesticides were herbicides (trifluralin, pendimethalin), fungicides (chlorothalonil) and insecticides (lindane and α-endosulfan). The three currently-used pesticides most frequently detected presented concentrations ranging from 0.18 to 1128.38ngm -3 ; 0.13 to 117.32ngm -3 and 0.16 to 25.80ngm -3 for chlorothalonil, pendimethalin and trifluralin, respectively. The estimated chronic inhalation risk, expressed as Hazard Quotient (HQ), for adults, children and infants, was <1 for all measured pesticides. Likewise, the cumulative exposure for detected organophosphorus and chloroacetamide pesticides, was estimated using the Relative Potency Factor (RPF) and Hazard Index (HI) as metrics, which was indicated that no risk was observed. The cancer risk classified as likely or possibly carcinogen was estimated to be <8.93 E-05 in infants, for the detected pesticides. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of natural gas extraction on PAH levels in ambient air.

PubMed

Paulik, L Blair; Donald, Carey E; Smith, Brian W; Tidwell, Lane G; Hobbie, Kevin A; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N; Anderson, Kim A

2015-04-21

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as "fracking," has increased rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. PAH levels were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. Additionally, PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were an order of magnitude higher than levels previously reported in rural areas. Sourcing ratios indicate that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that elevated PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. Closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 2.9 in 10 000, which is above the U.S. EPA's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest. This work suggests that natural gas extraction may be contributing significantly to PAHs in air, at levels that are relevant to human health.

Impact of natural gas extraction on Pah levels in ambient air

PubMed Central

Paulik, L. Blair; Donald, Carey E.; Smith, Brian W.; Tidwell, Lane G.; Hobbie, Kevin A.; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N.; Anderson, Kim A.

2015-01-01

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as “fracking,” has increased rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. PAH levels were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. Additionally, PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were an order of magnitude higher than levels previously reported in rural areas. Sourcing ratios indicate that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that elevated PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. Closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 2.9 in 10,000, which is above the U.S. EPA's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest. This work suggests that natural gas extraction may be contributing significantly to PAHs in air, at levels that are relevant to human health. PMID:25810398

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

PubMed

Rocheleau, J P; Michel, P; Lindsay, L R; Drebot, M; Dibernardo, A; Ogden, N H; Fortin, A; Arsenault, J

2017-10-01

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinclair, W. K.

1994-01-01

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment.

PubMed

Sinclair, W K

1994-01-01

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

Relative Bioavailability and Bioaccessability and Speciation of Arsenic in Contaminated Soils

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Assessment of soil arsenic (As) bioavailability may profoundly affect the extent of remediation required at contaminated sites by improving human exposure estimates. Because small adjustments in soil As bioavailability estimates can significantly alter risk assessment...

Assessing dengue infection risk in the southern region of Taiwan: implications for control.

PubMed

Liao, C-M; Huang, T-L; Cheng, Y-H; Chen, W-Y; Hsieh, N-H; Chen, S-C; Chio, C-P

2015-04-01

Dengue, one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases, is a major international public health concern. This study aimed to assess potential dengue infection risk from Aedes aegypti in Kaohsiung and the implications for vector control. Here we investigated the impact of dengue transmission on human infection risk using a well-established dengue-mosquito-human transmission dynamics model. A basic reproduction number (R 0)-based probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate dengue infection risk. Our findings confirm that the effect of biting rate plays a crucial role in shaping R 0 estimates. We demonstrated that there was 50% risk probability for increased dengue incidence rates exceeding 0.5-0.8 wk-1 for temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C. We further demonstrated that the weekly increased dengue incidence rate can be decreased to zero if vector control efficiencies reach 30-80% at temperatures of 19-32°C. We conclude that our analysis on dengue infection risk and control implications in Kaohsiung provide crucial information for policy-making on disease control.

Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic framework for assessing human health risk due to groundwater contamination. Our goal is to quantify how physical hydrogeological and biochemical parameters control the magnitude and uncertainty of human health risk. Our methodology captures the whole risk chain from the aquifer contamination to the tap water assumption by human population. The contaminant concentration, the key parameter for the risk estimation, is governed by the interplay between the large-scale advection, caused by heterogeneity and the degradation processes strictly related to the local scale dispersion processes. The core of the hazard identification and of the methodology is the reactive transport model: erratic displacement of contaminant in groundwater, due to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity (K), is characterized by a first-order Lagrangian stochastic model; different dynamics are considered as possible ways of biodegradation in aerobic and anaerobic conditions. With the goal of quantifying uncertainty, the Beta distribution is assumed for the concentration probability density function (pdf) model, while different levels of approximation are explored for the estimation of the one-point concentration moments. The information pertaining the flow and transport is connected with a proper dose response assessment which generally involves the estimation of physiological parameters of the exposed population. Human health response depends on the exposed individual metabolism (e.g. variability) and is subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the health parameters are intrinsically a stochastic. As a consequence, we provide an integrated in a global probabilistic human health risk framework which allows the propagation of the uncertainty from multiple sources. The final result, the health risk pdf, is expressed as function of a few relevant, physically-based parameters such as the size of the injection area, the Péclet number, the K structure metrics and covariance shape, reaction parameters pertaining to aerobic and anaerobic degradation processes respectively as well as the dose response parameters. Even though the final result assumes a relatively simple form, few numerical quadratures are required in order to evaluate the trajectory moments of the solute plume. In order to perform a sensitivity analysis we apply the methodology to a hypothetical case study. The scenario investigated is made by an aquifer which constitutes a water supply for a population where a continuous source of NAPL contaminant feeds a steady plume. The risk analysis is limited to carcinogenic compounds for which the well-known linear relation for human risk is assumed. Analysis performed shows few interesting findings: the risk distribution is strictly dependent on the pore scale dynamics that trigger dilution and mixing; biodegradation may involve a significant reduction of the risk.

Individual exposure estimates may be erroneous when spatiotemporal variability of air pollution and human mobility are ignored.

PubMed

Park, Yoo Min; Kwan, Mei-Po

2017-01-01

This study aims to empirically demonstrate the necessity to consider both the spatiotemporal variability of air pollution and individual daily movement patterns in exposure and health risk assessment. It compares four different types of exposure estimates generated by using (1) individual movement data and hourly air pollution concentrations; (2) individual movement data and daily average air pollution data; (3) residential location and hourly pollution levels; and (4) residential location and daily average pollution data. These four estimates are significantly different, which supports the argument that ignoring the spatiotemporal variability of environmental risk factors and human mobility may lead to misleading results in exposure assessment. Additionally, three-dimensional (3D) geovisualization presented in the paper shows how person-specific space-time context is generated by the interactions between air pollution and an individual, and how the different individualized contexts place individuals at different levels of health risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.

PubMed

Preston, R Julian; Boice, John D; Brill, A Bertrand; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Conolly, Rory; Hoffman, F Owen; Hornung, Richard W; Kocher, David C; Land, Charles E; Shore, Roy E; Woloschak, Gayle E

2013-09-01

The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose-rate occupational and perhaps environmental exposures and for exposures to x rays and high-LET radiations used in medicine. The development of models for more reliably combining the epidemiology data with experimental laboratory animal and cellular data can enhance the overall risk assessment approach by providing biologically refined data to strengthen the estimation of effects at low doses as opposed to the sole use of mathematical models of epidemiological data that are primarily driven by medium/high doses. NASA's approach to radiation protection for astronauts, although a unique occupational group, indicates the possible applicability of estimates of risk and their uncertainty in a broader context for developing recommendations on: (1) dose limits for occupational exposure and exposure of members of the public; (2) criteria to limit exposures of workers and members of the public to radon and its short-lived decay products; and (3) the dosimetric quantity (effective dose) used in radiation protection.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

PubMed

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Human Exposure Pathways of Heavy Metals in a Lead-Zinc Mining Area, Jiangsu Province, China

PubMed Central

Qu, Chang-Sheng; Ma, Zong-Wei; Yang, Jin; Liu, Yang; Bi, Jun; Huang, Lei

2012-01-01

Heavy metal pollution is becoming a serious issue in developing countries such as China, and the public is increasingly aware of its adverse health impacts in recent years. We assessed the potential health risks in a lead-zinc mining area and attempted to identify the key exposure pathways. We evaluated the spatial distributions of personal exposure using indigenous exposure factors and field monitoring results of water, soil, food, and indoor and outdoor air samples. The risks posed by 10 metals and the contribution of inhalation, ingestion and dermal contact pathways to these risks were estimated. Human hair samples were also analyzed to indicate the exposure level in the human body. Our results show that heavy metal pollution may pose high potential health risks to local residents, especially in the village closest to the mine (V1), mainly due to Pb, Cd and Hg. Correspondingly, the residents in V1 had higher Pb (8.14 mg/kg) levels in hair than those in the other two villages. Most of the estimated risks came from soil, the intake of self-produced vegetables and indoor air inhalation. This study highlights the importance of site-specific multipathway health risk assessments in studying heavy-metal exposures in China. PMID:23152752

Assessing the Risks to Human Health in Heterogeneous Aquifers under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe

2015-04-01

Reliable quantification of human health risk from toxic chemicals present in groundwater is a challenging task. The main difficulty relies on the fact that many of the components that constitute human health risk assessment are uncertain and requires interdisciplinary knowledge. Understanding the impact from each of these components in risk estimation can provide guidance for decision makers to manage contaminated sites and best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. This presentation will focus on the impact of aquifer heterogeneity in human health risk. Spatial heterogeneity of the hydrogeological properties can lead to the formation of preferential flow channels which control the plume spreading rates and travel time statistics, both which are critical in assessing the risk level. By making use of an integrated hydrogeological-health stochastic framework, the significance of characteristic length scales (e.g. characterizing flow, transport and sampling devices) in both controlling the uncertainty of health risk and determining data needs is highlighted. Through a series of examples, we show how fundamental knowledge on the main physical mechanisms affecting solute pathways are necessary to understand the human health response to varying drivers.

Biomonitoring - An Exposure Science Tool for Exposure and Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Biomonitoring studies of environmental stressors are useful for confirming exposures, estimating dose levels, and evaluating human health risks. However, the complexities of exposure-biomarker and biomarker-response relationships have limited the use of biomarkers in exposure sc...

Risk estimates for persistent high-risk human papillomavirus infections as surrogate endpoints of progressive cervical disease critically depend on reference category: analysis of the combined prospective cohort of the New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union and Latin American Screening studies.

PubMed

Syrjänen, K; Shabalova, I; Naud, P; Kozachenko, V; Derchain, S; Zakharchenko, S; Roteli-Martins, C; Nerovjna, R; Longatto-Filho, A; Kljukina, L; Tatti, S; Branovskaja, M; Hammes, L S; Branca, M; Grunjberga, V; Eržen, M; Juschenko, A; Costa, S; Sarian, L; Podistov, J; Syrjänen, S

2011-06-01

To make feasible future clinical trials with new-generation human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, novel virological surrogate endpoints of progressive disease have been proposed, including high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) persistence for six months (6M+) or 12 months (12M+). The risk estimates (relative risks [RRs]) of these 'virological endpoints' are influenced by several variables, not yet validated adequately. We compared the impact of three referent groups: (i) HPV-negative, (ii) HPV-transient, (iii) HPV-mixed outcome on the risk estimates for 6M+ or 12M+ HR-HPV persistence as predictors of progressive disease. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the strength of 6M+ and 12M+ HR-HPV persistence with disease progression to squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 1+, CIN2+, CIN/SIL endpoints, comparing three optional reference categories (i)-(iii) in a prospective sub-cohort of 1865 women from the combined New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (NIS) and Latin American Screening (LAMS) studies cohort (n = 15,301). The RRs of these viral endpoints as predictors of progressive disease are affected by the length of viral persistence (6M+ or 12M+) and the surrogate endpoint (SIL, CIN1, CIN2, CIN/SIL). Most dramatic is the effect of the referent group used in risk estimates, with the HPV-negative referent group giving the highest and most consistent RRs for both 6M+ and 12M+ viral persistence, irrespective of which surrogate is used. In addition to deciding on whether to use 6M+ or 12M+ persistence criteria, and cytological, histological or combined surrogate endpoints, one should adopt the HPV-negative referent group as the gold standard in all future studies using viral persistence as the surrogate endpoint of progressive disease.

Risk assessment of human health from exposure to the discharged ballast water after full-scale electrolysis treatment.

PubMed

Zhang, Nahui; Wang, Yidan; Xue, Junzeng; Yuan, Lin; Wang, Qiong; Liu, Liang; Wu, Huixian; Hu, Kefeng

2016-06-01

The presence of disinfection by-products (DBPs) releasing from ballast water management systems (BWMS) can cause a possible adverse effects on humans. The objectives of this study were to compute the Derived No Effect Levels (DNELs) for different exposure scenarios and to compare these levels with the exposure levels from the measured DBPs in treated ballast water. The risk assessment showed that when using animal toxicity data, all the DNELs values were approximately 10(3)-10(12) times higher than the exposure levels of occupational and general public exposure scenarios, indicating the level of risk was low (risk characterization ratios (RCRs) < 1). However, when using human data, the RCRs were higher than 1 for dichlorobromomethane and trichloromethane, indicating that the risk of adverse effects on human were significant. This implies that there are apparent discrepancies between risk characterization from animal and human data, which may affect the overall results. We therefore recommend that when appropriate, human data should be used in risk assessment as much as possible, although human data are very limited. Moreover, more appropriate assessment factors can be considered to be employed in estimating the DNELs for human when the animal data is selected as the dose descriptors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prioritizing Chemicals and Data Requirements for Screening-Level Exposure and Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Brown, Trevor N.; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Background: Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. Objectives: We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. Methods: We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Results: Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Conclusions: Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner. PMID:23008278

MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

PubMed Central

Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

2016-01-01

Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely” incidence risks of at least 22 and 13% for direct and indirect contact, respectively. The results of our study are consistent with available, yet very limited, published data regarding the potential pathways of transmission of MERS-CoV at the animal–human interface. These results identify key knowledge gaps and highlight the need for more comprehensive, yet focused research to be conducted to better understand transmission between dromedaries and humans. PMID:27761437

Adhesion and enrichment of metals on human hands from contaminated soil at an Arctic urban brownfield.

PubMed

Siciliano, Steven D; James, K; Zhang, Guiyin; Schafer, Alexis N; Peak, J Derek

2009-08-15

Human exposure to contaminated soils drives clean up criteria at many urban brownfields. Current risk assessment guidelines assume that humans ingest some fraction of soil smaller than 4 mm but have no estimates of what fraction of soil is ingested by humans. Here, we evaluated soil adherence to human hands for 13 agricultural soils from Saskatchewan, Canada and 17 different soils from a brownfield located in Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada. In addition, we estimated average particle size adhering to human hands for residents of a northern urban setting. Further, we estimated how metal concentrations differed between the adhered and bulk (< 4 mm) fraction of soil. The average particle size for adhered agricultural soils was 34 microm, adhered brownfield soils was 105 microm, and particles adhered to human residentswas 36 microm. Metals were significantly enriched in these adhered fractions with an average enrichment [(adhered-bulk)/bulk] in metal concentration of 184% (113% median) for 24 different elements. Enrichment was greater for key toxicological elements of concern such as chromium (140%), copper (140%), nickel (130%), lead (110%), and zinc (130%) and was highest for silver (810%), mercury (630%), selenium (500%), and arsenic (420%). Enrichment were positively correlated with carbonate complexation constants (but not bulk solubility products) and suggests that the dominant mechanism controlling metal enrichment in these samples is a precipitation of carbonate surfaces that subsequently adsorb metals. Our results suggest that metals of toxicological concern are selectively enriched in the fraction of soil that humans incidentally ingest. Investigators should likely process soil samples through a 45 microm sieve before estimating the risk associated with contaminated soils to humans. The chemical mechanisms resulting in metal enrichment likely differ between sites but at our site were linked to surface complexation with carbonates.

Valuation of Reductions in Human Health Symptoms and Risks. Volumes I-V (1985-1986)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A series of reports were prepared under a grant awarded to the University of Chicago for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency focusing on estimating the human health benefits of pollution control.

Pesticide residues in drinking water and associated risk to consumers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Mekonen, Seblework; Argaw, Roba; Simanesew, Aklilu; Houbraken, Michael; Senaeve, David; Ambelu, Argaw; Spanoghe, Pieter

2016-11-01

Access to safe and reliable drinking water is vital for a healthy population. However, surface water may be contaminated with pesticides because of the nearby agricultural areas as well as from household application. Water samples were collected from water sources in Jimma zone and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The extraction and clean up of the samples were undertaken using liquid-solid and liquid-liquid methods. Human exposure was assessed by calculating the estimated daily intake (EDI) of pesticides in water and compared with the acceptable daily intake (ADI) and the acute reference dose (ARfD). The mean concentrations of 2,4-D, malathion, diazinon and fenpropimorph were 1.59-13.90 μg/l and 0.11-138 µg/l in Jimma and Addis Ababa water sources, respectively. The residue level of some of the pesticides were above the European drinking water guide line values, which is an indication of an illegal use of pesticides in the study areas. Concerning human health risk estimation, there was no acute risk (EDI < ARfD). However, chronic risks to human health were observed from exposure to diazinon and fenpropimorph (EDI > ADI) for Jimma and Addis Ababa populations, respectively. A comprehensive monitoring is required to reduce the level of pesticide residues in the water and to minimize particularly the long term human health risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment of Human Toxoplasmosis Associated with the Consumption of Pork Meat in Italy.

PubMed

Condoleo, Roberto; Rinaldi, Laura; Sette, Stefania; Mezher, Ziad

2018-06-01

Toxoplasmosis is a cosmopolitan disease and has a broad range of hosts, including humans and several wild and domestic animals. The human infection is mostly acquired through the consumption of contaminated food and pork meat has been recognized as one of the major sources of transmission. There are, however, certain fundamental differences between countries; therefore, the present study specifically aims to evaluate the exposure of the Italian population to Toxoplasma gondii through the ingestion of several types of pork meat products habitually consumed in Italy and to estimate the annual number of human infections within two subgroups of the population. A quantitative risk assessment model was built for this reason and was enriched with new elements in comparison to other similar risk assessments in order to enhance its accuracy. Sensitivity analysis and two alternative scenarios were implemented to identify the factors that have the highest impact on risk and to simulate different plausible conditions, respectively. The estimated overall average number of new infections per year among adults is 12,513 and 92 for pregnant women. The baseline model showed that almost all these infections are associated with the consumption of fresh meat cuts and preparations (mean risk of infection varied between 4.5 × 10 -5 and 5.5 × 10 -5 ) and only a small percentage is due to fermented sausages/salami. On the contrary, salt-cured meat products seem to pose minor risk but further investigations are needed to clarify still unclear aspects. Among all the considered variables, cooking temperature and bradyzoites' concentration in muscle impacted most the risk. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Risks of CIN 2+, CIN 3+, and Cancer by Cytology and Human Papillomavirus Status: The Foundation of Risk-Based Cervical Screening Guidelines.

PubMed

Demarco, Maria; Lorey, Thomas S; Fetterman, Barbara; Cheung, Li C; Guido, Richard S; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Poitras, Nancy E; Befano, Brian; Castle, Philip E; Schiffman, Mark

2017-10-01

The next round of the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP)-sponsored cervical cancer screening and management guidelines will recommend clinical actions based on risk, rather than test-based algorithms. This article gives preliminary risk estimates for the screening setting, showing combinations of the 2 most important predictors, human papillomavirus (HPV) status and cytology result. Among 1,262,713 women aged 25 to 77 years co-tested with HC2 (Qiagen) and cytology at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, we estimated 0-5-year cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+, CIN 3+, and cancer for combinations of cytology (negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy [NILM], atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US], low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL], atypical squamous cells cannot exclude HSIL [ASC-H], high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL], atypical glandular cells [AGC]) and HPV status. Ninety percent of screened women had HPV-negative NILM and an extremely low risk of subsequent cancer. Five-year risks of CIN 3+ were lower after HPV negativity (0.12%) than after NILM (0.25%). Among HPV-negative women, 5-year risks for CIN 3+ were 0.10% for NILM, 0.44% for ASC-US, 1.8% for LSIL, 3.0% for ASC-H, 1.2% for AGC, and 29% for HSIL+ cytology (which was very rare). Among HPV-positive women, 5-year risks were 4.0% for NILM, 6.8% for ASC-US, 6.1% for LSIL, 28% for ASC-H, 30% for AGC, and 50% for HSIL+ cytology. As a foundation for the next guidelines revision, we confirmed with additional precision the risk estimates previously reported for combinations of HPV and cytology. Future analyses will estimate risks for women being followed in colposcopy clinic and posttreatment and will consider the role of risk modifiers such as age, HPV vaccine status, HPV type, and screening and treatment history.

Risks of CIN 2+, CIN 3+, and Cancer by Cytology and Human Papillomavirus Status: The Foundation of Risk-Based Cervical Screening Guidelines

PubMed Central

Demarco, Maria; Lorey, Thomas S.; Fetterman, Barbara; Cheung, Li C.; Guido, Richard S.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K.; Poitras, Nancy E.; Befano, Brian; Castle, Philip E.; Schiffman, Mark

2017-01-01

Objectives The next round of the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP)-sponsored cervical cancer screening and management guidelines will recommend clinical actions based on risk, rather than test-based algorithms. This article gives preliminary risk estimates for the screening setting, showing combinations of the 2 most important predictors, human papillomavirus (HPV) status and cytology result. Materials and Methods Among 1,262,713 women aged 25 to 77 years co-tested with HC2 (Qiagen) and cytology at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, we estimated 0–5-year cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+, CIN 3+, and cancer for combinations of cytology (negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy [NILM], atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US], low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL], atypical squamous cells cannot exclude HSIL [ASC-H], high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL], atypical glandular cells [AGC]) and HPV status. Results Ninety percent of screened women had HPV-negative NILM and an extremely low risk of subsequent cancer. Five-year risks of CIN 3+ were lower after HPV negativity (0.12%) than after NILM (0.25%). Among HPV-negative women, 5-year risks for CIN 3+ were 0.10% for NILM, 0.44% for ASC-US, 1.8% for LSIL, 3.0% for ASC-H, 1.2% for AGC, and 29% for HSIL+ cytology (which was very rare). Among HPV-positive women, 5-year risks were 4.0% for NILM, 6.8% for ASC-US, 6.1% for LSIL, 28% for ASC-H, 30% for AGC, and 50% for HSIL+ cytology. Conclusions As a foundation for the next guidelines revision, we confirmed with additional precision the risk estimates previously reported for combinations of HPV and cytology. Future analyses will estimate risks for women being followed in colposcopy clinic and posttreatment and will consider the role of risk modifiers such as age, HPV vaccine status, HPV type, and screening and treatment history. PMID:28953116

Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

PubMed

Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

2014-02-01

Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p < 0.0001) for each outcome category. When surgeons perceived patient risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Exposure-Based Prioritization of Chemicals for Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Manufactured chemicals are used extensively to produce a wide variety of consumer goods and are required by important industrial sectors. Presently, information is insufficient to estimate risks posed to human health and the environment from the over ten thousand chemical substan...

CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CHLOROFORM

EPA Science Inventory

Chloroform is a common chlorination by-product in drinking water. EPA has regulated chloroform as a probable human carcinogen under the Safe Drinking Water Act. The cancer risk estimate via ingestion was based on the 1985 Jorgenson study identifying kidney tumors in male Osborne ...

Simulating the Risk of Investment in Human Capital

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartog, Joop; Van Ophem, Hans; Bajdechi, Simona Maria

2007-01-01

The risk of investment in schooling has largely been ignored. We mimic the investment decision facing a student and simulate risky earnings profiles in alternative options, with parameters taken from the very limited evidence. The distribution of rates of return appears positively skewed. Our best estimate of "ex ante" risk in university education…

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR) of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution), LandScan (~1 km), UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km), and GPW3 (~5 km). More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was consistently more accurate than the others in estimating PAR. The sizes of such differences among modeled human populations were related to variations in the methods, input resolution, and date of the census data underlying each dataset. Data quality varied from country to country within the spatial population datasets. Conclusions Detailed, highly spatially resolved human population data are an essential resource for planning health service delivery for disease control, for the spatial modeling of epidemics, and for decision-making processes related to public health. However, our results highlight that for the low-income regions of the world where disease burden is greatest, existing datasets display substantial variations in estimated population distributions, resulting in uncertainty in disease assessments that utilize them. Increased efforts are required to gather contemporary and spatially detailed demographic data to reduce this uncertainty, particularly in Africa, and to develop population distribution modeling methods that match the rigor, sophistication, and ability to handle uncertainty of contemporary disease mapping and spread modeling. In the meantime, studies that utilize a particular spatial population dataset need to acknowledge the uncertainties inherent within them and consider how the methods and data that comprise each will affect conclusions. PMID:21299885

[Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

PubMed

Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

2008-01-01

Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

Salmonella risk to consumers via pork is related to the Salmonella prevalence in pig feed.

PubMed

Rönnqvist, M; Välttilä, V; Ranta, J; Tuominen, P

2018-05-01

Pigs are an important source of human infections with Salmonella, one of the most common causes of sporadic gastrointestinal infections and foodborne outbreaks in the European region. Feed has been estimated to be a significant source of Salmonella in piggeries in countries of a low Salmonella prevalence. To estimate Salmonella risk to consumers via the pork production chain, including feed production, a quantitative risk assessment model was constructed. The Salmonella prevalence in feeds and in animals was estimated to be generally low in Finland, but the relative importance of feed as a source of Salmonella in pigs was estimated as potentially high. Discontinuation of the present strict Salmonella control could increase the risk of Salmonella in slaughter pigs and consequent infections in consumers. The increased use of low risk and controlled feed ingredients could result in a consistently lower residual contamination in pigs and help the tracing and control of the sources of infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Participatory probabilistic assessment of the risk to human health associated with cryptosporidiosis from urban dairying in Dagoretti, Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Grace, Delia; Monda, Joseph; Karanja, Nancy; Randolph, Thomas F; Kang'ethe, Erastus K

2012-09-01

We carried out a participatory risk assessment to estimate the risk (negative consequences and their likelihood) from zoonotic Cryptosporidium originating in dairy farms in urban Dagoretti, Nairobi to dairy farm households and their neighbours. We selected 20 households at high risk for Cryptosporidium from a larger sample of 300 dairy households in Dagoretti based on risk factors present. We then conducted a participatory mapping of the flow of the hazard from its origin (cattle) to human potential victims. This showed three main exposure pathways (food and water borne, occupational and recreational). This was used to develop a fault tree model which we parameterised using information from the study and literature. A stochastic simulation was used to estimate the probability of exposure to zoonotic cryptosporidiosis originating from urban dairying. Around 6 % of environmental samples were positive for Cryptosporidium. Probability of exposure to Cryptosporidium from dairy cattle ranged from 0.0055 for people with clinical acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in non-dairy households to 0.0102 for children under 5 years from dairy households. Most of the estimated health burden was born by children. Although dairy cattle are the source of Cryptosporidium, the model suggests consumption of vegetables is a greater source of risk than consumption of milk. In conclusion, by combining participatory methods with quantitative microbial risk assessment, we were able to rapidly, and with appropriate 'imprecision', investigate health risk to communities from Cryptosporidium and identify the most vulnerable groups and the most risky practices.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, Chris L.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, C.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

75 FR 47475 - Acetamiprid, Mepiquat; Order Denying NRDC’s Objections on Remand: Environmental Protection Agency

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-06

... milligrams of pesticide per kilogram of human body weight per day (mg/ kg/day).) Suppose the safe level of... of concern''), how EPA measures human exposure to pesticides, and how hazard, level of concern conclusions, and human exposure estimates are combined to evaluate risk. Further, this unit presents...

Radiation epidemiology: old and new challenges.

PubMed Central

Shore, R E

1989-01-01

Over the last 40 years the amount of knowledge about human radiation effects has increased dramatically. During that interval, radiation epidemiologists have documented a number of additional types of radiation-induced cancer and have established rough estimates of the magnitude of cancer risks. Nevertheless, we currently have inadequate knowledge about a number of factors that help define the magnitude of radiation risks. These include questions of estimating risk over the lifetime, shapes of dose-effect curves, magnitude of risks at low doses, potentiation between radiation and other agents, and the nature and role of host susceptibility factors. Data from various studies are used to illustrate these questions. PMID:2759057

[The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

PubMed

Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

2014-01-01

The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

Modified wind chill temperatures determined by a whole body thermoregulation model and human-based facial convective coefficients.

PubMed

Shabat, Yael Ben; Shitzer, Avraham; Fiala, Dusan

2014-08-01

Wind chill equivalent temperatures (WCETs) were estimated by a modified Fiala's whole body thermoregulation model of a clothed person. Facial convective heat exchange coefficients applied in the computations concurrently with environmental radiation effects were taken from a recently derived human-based correlation. Apart from these, the analysis followed the methodology used in the derivation of the currently used wind chill charts. WCET values are summarized by the following equation:[Formula: see text]Results indicate consistently lower estimated facial skin temperatures and consequently higher WCETs than those listed in the literature and used by the North American weather services. Calculated dynamic facial skin temperatures were additionally applied in the estimation of probabilities for the occurrence of risks of frostbite. Predicted weather combinations for probabilities of "Practically no risk of frostbite for most people," for less than 5 % risk at wind speeds above 40 km h(-1), were shown to occur at air temperatures above -10 °C compared to the currently published air temperature of -15 °C. At air temperatures below -35 °C, the presently calculated weather combination of 40 km h(-1)/-35 °C, at which the transition for risks to incur a frostbite in less than 2 min, is less conservative than that published: 60 km h(-1)/-40 °C. The present results introduce a fundamentally improved scientific basis for estimating facial skin temperatures, wind chill temperatures and risk probabilities for frostbites over those currently practiced.

Modified wind chill temperatures determined by a whole body thermoregulation model and human-based facial convective coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabat, Yael Ben; Shitzer, Avraham; Fiala, Dusan

2014-08-01

Wind chill equivalent temperatures (WCETs) were estimated by a modified Fiala's whole body thermoregulation model of a clothed person. Facial convective heat exchange coefficients applied in the computations concurrently with environmental radiation effects were taken from a recently derived human-based correlation. Apart from these, the analysis followed the methodology used in the derivation of the currently used wind chill charts. WCET values are summarized by the following equation: Results indicate consistently lower estimated facial skin temperatures and consequently higher WCETs than those listed in the literature and used by the North American weather services. Calculated dynamic facial skin temperatures were additionally applied in the estimation of probabilities for the occurrence of risks of frostbite. Predicted weather combinations for probabilities of "Practically no risk of frostbite for most people," for less than 5 % risk at wind speeds above 40 km h-1, were shown to occur at air temperatures above -10 °C compared to the currently published air temperature of -15 °C. At air temperatures below -35 °C, the presently calculated weather combination of 40 km h-1/-35 °C, at which the transition for risks to incur a frostbite in less than 2 min, is less conservative than that published: 60 km h-1/-40 °C. The present results introduce a fundamentally improved scientific basis for estimating facial skin temperatures, wind chill temperatures and risk probabilities for frostbites over those currently practiced.

Heavy Ion Carcinogenesis and Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Durante, Marco

2008-01-01

Prior to the human exploration of Mars or long duration stays on the Earth s moon, the risk of cancer and other diseases from space radiation must be accurately estimated and mitigated. Space radiation, comprised of energetic protons and heavy nuclei, has been show to produce distinct biological damage compared to radiation on Earth, leading to large uncertainties in the projection of cancer and other health risks, while obscuring evaluation of the effectiveness of possible countermeasures. Here, we describe how research in cancer radiobiology can support human missions to Mars and other planets.

Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models.

PubMed

Allan, Sarah E; Sower, Gregory J; Anderson, Kim A

2011-10-01

Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models

PubMed Central

Allan, Sarah E.; Sower, Gregory J.; Anderson, Kim A.

2013-01-01

Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficulties to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for three years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. PMID:21741671

Update to the U.S. EPA's Guidelines for Human Exposure Assessment.

EPA Science Inventory

The mission of the U.S. EPA is to protect human health and the environment by understanding, characterizing, and reducing risks associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Exposure science characterizes, estimates, and predicts exposures and provides information for d...

Computational Molecular Modeling Methods Applied to Screening for Toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

The risk to human health and the environment of chemicals that result from human activity often must be evaluated when relevant elements of the preferred data set are unavailable. Therefore, strategies are needed that estimate this information and prioritize the outstanding data...

Exposure to human-associated fecal indicators and self-reported illness among swimmers at recreational beaches: a cohort study.

PubMed

Napier, Melanie D; Haugland, Richard; Poole, Charles; Dufour, Alfred P; Stewart, Jill R; Weber, David J; Varma, Manju; Lavender, Jennifer S; Wade, Timothy J

2017-10-02

Fecal indicator bacteria used to assess illness risks in recreational waters (e.g., Escherichia coli, Enterococci) cannot discriminate among pollution sources. To address this limitation, human-associated Bacteroides markers have been proposed, but the risk of illness associated with the presence of these markers in recreational waters is unclear. Our objective was to estimate associations between human-associated Bacteroides markers in water and self-reported illness among swimmers at 6 U.S. beaches spanning 2003-2007. We used data from a prospectively-enrolled cohort of 12,060 swimmers surveyed about beach activities and water exposure on the day of their beach visit. Ten to twelve days later, participants reported gastroinestinal, diarrheal, and respiratory illnesses experienced since the visit. Daily water samples were analyzed for the presence of human-associated Bacteroides genetic markers: HF183, BsteriF1, BuniF2, HumM2. We used model-based standardization to estimate risk differences (RD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We assessed whether the presence of Bacteroides markers were modifiers of the association between general Enterococcus and illness among swimmers using interaction contrast. Overall we observed inconsistent associations between the presence of Bacteroides markers and illness. There was a pattern of increased risks of gastrointestinal (RD = 1.9%; 95% CI: 0.1%, 3.7%), diarrheal (RD = 1.3%; 95% CI: -0.2%, 2.7%), and respiratory illnesses (RD = 1.1%; 95% CI: -0.2%, 2.5%) associated with BsteriF1. There was no evidence that Bacteroides markers acted as modifiers of Enterococcus and illness. Patterns were similar when stratified by water matrix. Quantitative measures of fecal pollution using Bacteroides, rather than presence-absence indicators, may be necessary to accurately assess human risk specific to the presence of human fecal pollution.

Organochlorine pesticide levels in Clarias gariepinus from polluted freshwater impoundments in South Africa and associated human health risks.

PubMed

Barnhoorn, I E J; van Dyk, J C; Genthe, B; Harding, W R; Wagenaar, G M; Bornman, M S

2015-02-01

There are increasing concerns regarding the safe human consumption of fish from polluted, freshwater impoundments. The aim of this study was to analyse the muscle tissue of the sharptooth catfish Clarias gariepinus for selected organo-chlorine pesticides (OCPs) and to perform a human health risk assessment using a standard protocol described by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). Fish were collected from the polluted Roodeplaat-(RDPD), Rietvlei-(RVD) and Hartbeespoort (HBPD) Dam impoundments located in the north-eastern regions of South Africa. GC-MS analyses showed levels of various OCPs in fish muscle samples from all three impoundments. For fish collected from the RDPD, p,p'-DDE, endosulfan, lindane and β- and δ-HCH were the most prevalent OCPs detected, while p,p'-DDE and endosulfan were the most predominant in fish from the RVD. Lindane and β- and δ-HCH were the main OCPs detected in fish from the HBPD. Dieldrin was the only OCP detected at concentrations for which a cancer risk and a hazard index above the acceptable risk levels were estimated. This was the case for fish from both the RDPD and RVD impoundments. No toxic risk was estimated should fish from the HBPD be consumed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Donor testing and risk: current prevalence, incidence, and residual risk of transfusion-transmissible agents in US allogeneic donations.

PubMed

Zou, Shimian; Stramer, Susan L; Dodd, Roger Y

2012-04-01

Over the past 20 years, there has been a major increase in the safety of the blood supply, as demonstrated by declining rates of posttransfusion infection and reductions in estimated residual risk for such infections. Reliable estimates of residual risk have been possible within the American Red Cross system because of the availability of a large amount of reliable and consistent data on donations and infectious disease testing results. Among allogeneic blood donations, the prevalence rates of infection markers for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus have decreased over time, although rates for markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and human T-cell lymphotropic virus did not. The incidence (/100 000 person-years) of HIV and HCV among repeat donors showed apparent increases from 1.55 and 1.89 in 2000 through 2001 to 2.16 and 2.98 in 2007 through 2008. These observed fluctuations confirm the need for continuous monitoring and evaluation. The residual risk of HIV, HCV, and human T-cell lymphotropic virus among all allogeneic donations is currently below 1 per 1 million donations, and that of hepatitis B surface antigen is close to 1 per 300 000 donations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

Human health risk assessment related to contaminated land: state of the art.

PubMed

Swartjes, F A

2015-08-01

Exposure of humans to contaminants from contaminated land may result in many types of health damage ranging from relatively innocent symptoms such as skin eruption or nausea, on up to cancer or even death. Human health protection is generally considered as a major protection target. State-of-the-art possibilities and limitations of human health risk assessment tools are described in this paper. Human health risk assessment includes two different activities, i.e. the exposure assessment and the hazard assessment. The combination of these is called the risk characterization, which results in an appraisal of the contaminated land. Exposure assessment covers a smart combination of calculations, using exposure models, and measurements in contact media and body liquids and tissue (biomonitoring). Regarding the time frame represented by exposure estimates, biomonitoring generally relates to exposure history, measurements in contact media to actual exposures, while exposure calculations enable a focus on exposure in future situations. The hazard assessment, which is different for contaminants with or without a threshold for effects, results in a critical exposure value. Good human health risk assessment practice accounts for tiered approaches and multiple lines of evidence. Specific attention is given here to phenomena such as the time factor in human health risk assessment, suitability for the local situation, background exposure, combined exposure and harmonization of human health risk assessment tools.

Rapid assessment of environmental health risks posed by mining operations in low- and middle-income countries: selected case studies.

PubMed

Caravanos, Jack; Ericson, Bret; Ponce-Canchihuamán, Johny; Hanrahan, David; Block, Meredith; Susilorini, Budi; Fuller, Richard

2013-11-01

Previous studies have evaluated associated health risks and human exposure pathways at mining sites. Others have provided estimates of the scale of the issue based in part on surveys. However, a global census of mining-related hazardous waste sites has been lacking. The Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) implemented by Blacksmith Institute (New York, NY, USA) since 2009 is an ongoing effort to catalogue a wide range of chemically contaminated sites with a potential human health risk (Ericson et al., Environ Monit Assess doi:10.1007/s 10661-012-2665-2, 2012). The TSIP utilizes a rapid assessment instrument, the Initial Site Screening (ISS), to quickly and affordably identify key site criteria including human exposure pathways, estimated populations at risk, and sampling information. The resulting ISS allows for comparison between sites exhibiting different contaminants and pollution sources. This paper explores the results of a subset of ISSs completed at 131 artisanal and small-scale gold mining areas and 275 industrial mining and ore processing sites in 45 countries. The authors show that the ISS captures key data points, allowing for prioritization of sites for further investigation or remedial activity.

Space Radiation and Human Exposures, A Primer.

PubMed

Nelson, Gregory A

2016-04-01

The space radiation environment is a complex field comprised primarily of charged particles spanning energies over many orders of magnitude. The principal sources of these particles are galactic cosmic rays, the Sun and the trapped radiation belts around the earth. Superimposed on a steady influx of cosmic rays and a steady outward flux of low-energy solar wind are short-term ejections of higher energy particles from the Sun and an 11-year variation of solar luminosity that modulates cosmic ray intensity. Human health risks are estimated from models of the radiation environment for various mission scenarios, the shielding of associated vehicles and the human body itself. Transport models are used to propagate the ambient radiation fields through realistic shielding levels and materials to yield radiation field models inside spacecraft. Then, informed by radiobiological experiments and epidemiology studies, estimates are made for various outcome measures associated with impairments of biological processes, losses of function or mortality. Cancer-associated risks have been formulated in a probabilistic model while management of non-cancer risks are based on permissible exposure limits. This article focuses on the various components of the space radiation environment and the human exposures that it creates.

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models: State of the Science and Needs for Research and Implementation

EPA Science Inventory

Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variabilit...

Epithelial perturbation by inhaled chlorine: Multi-scale mechanistic modeling in rats and humans

EPA Science Inventory

Chlorine is a high-production volume, hazardous air pollutant and irritant gas of interest to homeland security. Thus, scenarios of interest for risk characterization range from acute high-level exposures to lower-level chronic exposures. Risk assessment approaches to estimate ...

MODELING APPROACHES FOR ESTIMATING THE DOSIMETRY OF INHALED TOXICANTS IN CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment of inhaled toxicants has typically focused upon adults, with modeling used to extrapolate dosimetry and risks from laboratory animals to humans. However, behavioral factors such as time spent playing outdoors can lead to more exposure to inhaled toxicants in chil...

Quantitative comparisons of cancer induction in humans by internally deposited radionuclides and external radiation.

PubMed

Harrison, J D; Muirhead, C R

2003-01-01

To compare quantitative estimates of lifetime cancer risk in humans for exposures to internally deposited radionuclides and external radiation. To assess the possibility that risks from radionuclide exposures may be underestimated. Risk estimates following internal exposures can be made for a small number of alpha-particle-emitting nuclides. (1) Lung cancer in underground miners exposed by inhalation to radon-222 gas and its short-lived progeny. Studies of residential (222)Rn exposure are generally consistent with predictions from the miner studies. (2) Liver cancer and leukaemia in patients given intravascular injections of Thorotrast, a thorium-232 oxide preparation that concentrates in liver, spleen and bone marrow. (3) Bone cancer in patients given injections of radium-224, and in workers exposed occupationally to (226)Ra and (228)Ra, mainly by ingestion. (4) Lung cancer in Mayak workers exposed to plutonium-239, mainly by inhalation. Liver and bone cancers were also seen, but the dosimetry is not yet sufficiently good enough to provide quantitative estimates of risks. Comparisons can be made between risk estimates for radiation-induced cancer derived for radionuclide exposure and those derived for the A-bomb survivors, exposed mainly to low-LET (linear energy transfer) external radiation. Data from animal studies, using dogs and rodents, allow comparisons of cancer induction by a range of alpha- and beta-/gamma-emitting radionuclides. They provide information on relative biological effectiveness (RBE), dose-response relationships, dose-rate effects and the location of target cells for different malignancies. For lung and liver cancer, the estimated values of risk per Sv for internal exposure, assuming an RBE for alpha-particles of 20, are reasonably consistent with estimates for external exposure to low-LET radiation. This also applies to bone cancer when risk is calculated on the basis of average bone dose, but consideration of dose to target cells on bone surfaces suggests a low RBE for alpha-particles. Similarly, for leukaemia, the comparison of risks from alpha-irradiation ((232)Th and progeny) and external radiation suggest a low alpha RBE; this conclusion is supported by animal data. Risk estimates for internal exposure are dependent on the assumptions made in calculating dose. Account is taken of the distribution of radionuclides within tissues and the distribution of target cells for cancer induction. For the lungs and liver, the available human and animal data provide support for current assumptions. However, for bone cancer and leukaemia, it may be that changes are required. Bone cancer risk may be best assessed by calculating dose to a 50 micro m layer of marrow adjacent to endosteal (inner) bone surfaces rather than to a single 10 micro m cell layer as currently assumed. Target cells for leukaemia may be concentrated towards the centre of marrow cavities so that the risk of leukaemia from bone-seeking radionuclides, particularly alpha emitters, may be overestimated by the current assumption of uniform distribution of target cells throughout red bone marrow. The lifetime risk estimates considered here for exposure to internally deposited radionuclides and to external radiation are subject to uncertainties, arising from the dosimetric assumptions made, from the quality of cancer incidence and mortality data and from aspects of risk modelling; including variations in baseline rates between populations for some cancer types. Bearing in mind such uncertainties, comparisons of risk estimates for internal emitters and external radiation show good agreement for lung and liver cancers. For leukaemia, the available data suggest that the assumption of an alpha-particle RBE of 20 can result in overestimates of risk. For bone cancer, it also appears that current assumptions will overestimate risks from alpha-particle-emitting nuclides, particularly at low doses.

Trace Metal Levels in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Cultured in Net Cages in a Reservoir and Evaluation of Human Health Risks from Consumption.

PubMed

Varol, Memet; Kaya, Gülderen Kurt; Alp, Sumru Anık; Sünbül, Muhammet Raşit

2017-09-19

Although fish consumption has positive health effects, metals accumulated in fish can cause human health risks. In this study, the levels of ten metals in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) farmed in the Keban Dam Reservoir, which has the biggest rainbow trout production capacity in Turkey, were determined and compared with the maximum permissible levels (MPLs). Also, human health risks associated with rainbow trout consumption were assessed. The metal concentrations in rainbow trout were found below the MPLs. The estimated daily intake of each metal was much lower than the respective tolerable daily intake. The target hazard quotient (THQ) for individual metal and total THQ for combined metals did not exceed 1, indicating no health risk for consumers. The cancer risk (CR) value for inorganic arsenic was within the acceptable lifetime risk range of 10 -6 and 10 -4 . For carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects, the maximum allowable fish consumption rates were high enough to ensure the human health. According to these results, the consumption of rainbow trout farmed in the Keban Dam Reservoir does not pose a risk on human health.

Cancer incidence attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors in Alberta in 2012: summary of results

PubMed Central

Grundy, Anne; Poirier, Abbey E.; Khandwala, Farah; Grevers, Xin; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.

2017-01-01

Background: Estimates of the proportion of cancer cases that can be attributed to modifiable risk factors are not available for Canada and, more specifically, Alberta. The purpose of this study was to estimate the total proportion of cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 that could be attributed to a set of 24 modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Methods: We estimated summary population attributable risk estimates for 24 risk factors (smoking [both passive and active], overweight and obesity, inadequate physical activity, diet [inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption, inadequate fibre intake, excess red and processed meat consumption, salt consumption, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake], alcohol, hormones [oral contraceptives and hormone therapy], infections [Epstein-Barr virus, hepatitis B and C viruses, human papillomavirus, Helicobacter pylori], air pollution, natural and artificial ultraviolet radiation, radon and water disinfection by-products) by combining population attributable risk estimates for each of the 24 factors that had been previously estimated. To account for the possibility that individual cancer cases were the result of a combination of multiple risk factors, we subtracted the population attributable risk for the first factor from 100% and then applied the population attributable risk for the second factor to the remaining proportion that was not attributable to the first factor. We repeated this process in sequential order for all relevant exposures. Results: Overall, an estimated 40.8% of cancer cases in Alberta in 2012 were attributable to modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. The largest proportion of cancers were estimated to be attributable to tobacco smoking, physical inactivity and excess body weight. The summary population attributable risk estimate was slightly higher among women (42.4%) than among men (38.7%). Interpretation: About 41% of cancer cases in Alberta may be attributable to known modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors. Reducing the prevalence of these factors in the Alberta population has the potential to substantially reduce the provincial cancer burden. PMID:28687643

Human Papilloma Virus and Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anus

PubMed Central

Gami, Bhavna; Kubba, Faris; Ziprin, Paul

2014-01-01

The incidence of anal cancer is increasing. In the UK, the incidence is estimated at approximately 1.5 per 100,000. Most of this increase is attributed to certain at-risk populations. Persons who are human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–positive and men who have sex with men (MSM), Organ transplant recipients, women with a history of cervical cancer, human papilloma virus (HPV), or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) are known to have a greater risk for anal cancer. This paper will focus on HPV as a risk factor for anal intraepithelial neoplasia (AIN) and discusses the etiology, anatomy, pathogenesis, management of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the anus. PMID:25288893

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merill, Robin L.; Tri, Terry O.; Henninger, Donald L.

2003-01-01

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

Bioavailability evaluation, uptake of heavy metals and potential health risks via dietary exposure in urban-industrial areas.

PubMed

Yousaf, Balal; Liu, Guijian; Wang, Ruwei; Imtiaz, Muhammad; Zia-Ur-Rehman, Muhammad; Munir, Mehr Ahmed Mujtaba; Niu, Zhiyuan

2016-11-01

A verity of human activities i.e. urbanization and industrialization have been resulted serious environmental contaminations by heavy metals in all over the world. The settlement of populations in urban and nearby industrial areas for economic development has significant share in their exposure to these metallic contaminants. Depending on the nature and type of the pollutants, targeted urban-industrial environments can have harmful and chronic health risk impacts on exposed local inhabitants and may require detoxification, healing and remedial therapy. Consequently, environmental monitoring as well as human health risk assessments of urban environments under industrial influence are key dominant features. We believe this work will provide new insights into the studies of metals exposure and associated health risks in emerging industrials cities of developing countries. Present study aimed to study the bioavailability of metals, quantify the changeability in soil and vegetable metal concentrations and estimation of human health risks via dietary exposure, focusing on urban-industrial environment. Soil and vegetable samples were collected in six random sites within the urban, periurban and industrial areas and analyzed for metal concentrations. In addition, risk assessment model proposed by US-EPA was employed to estimate the potential health risk of heavy metals via dietary intake. Results indicated that the heavy metal concentrations were noteworthy in periurban and urban-industrial areas. However, contamination levels varied with the type of vegetable, and the point source pollution such as traffic, urban wastes and industrial effluent. According to the estimated THQ and HI values for non-carcinogenic risk, little or no negative impact of heavy metals was observed on local inhabitants. However, the concentrations of Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni were nearly closed to the permissible limits described by US-EPA in urban-industrial areas. Conclusively, some efficient remedial strategies should be focus to overcome the increasing levels of Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni in this study area to protect the health of local inhabitants.

Assessing network scale-up estimates for groups most at risk of HIV/AIDS: evidence from a multiple-method study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil.

PubMed

Salganik, Matthew J; Fazito, Dimitri; Bertoni, Neilane; Abdo, Alexandre H; Mello, Maeve B; Bastos, Francisco I

2011-11-15

One of the many challenges hindering the global response to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic is the difficulty of collecting reliable information about the populations most at risk for the disease. Thus, the authors empirically assessed a promising new method for estimating the sizes of most at-risk populations: the network scale-up method. Using 4 different data sources, 2 of which were from other researchers, the authors produced 5 estimates of the number of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil. The authors found that the network scale-up and generalized network scale-up estimators produced estimates 5-10 times higher than estimates made using standard methods (the multiplier method and the direct estimation method using data from 2004 and 2010). Given that equally plausible methods produced such a wide range of results, the authors recommend that additional studies be undertaken to compare estimates based on the scale-up method with those made using other methods. If scale-up-based methods routinely produce higher estimates, this would suggest that scale-up-based methods are inappropriate for populations most at risk of HIV/AIDS or that standard methods may tend to underestimate the sizes of these populations.

[Evolution of residual risk for HIV, HCV and HBV, from 1999 to 2010, in blood donations of the Centro Hospitalar S. João, EPE, Porto, Portugal].

PubMed

Koch, Carmo; Araújo, Fernando

2013-01-01

Monitoring the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted viral infections is important to evaluate the improvement achieved in the blood donation safety and to adopt policies to reduce risks. The present study calculates the incidence of the key infectious diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) as well as the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted viral infections, during twelve years, 1999 through 2010. Data were analyzed over 3 periods of 4 years (1999-2002, 2003-2006 and 2007-2010). The risk estimates were compared to those previously obtained for blood donations occurred between 1991 and 1998. The study included 209 640 blood donations, from 42 634 regular, volunteers and unpaid donors. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted infection per million donations was calculated, for each virus, through mathematical model "Incidence rate/window period", described by Schreiber et al. All donations were screened according to Portuguese legislation. In January 2001, the nucleic acid testing in minipool was implemented on all blood donations, for screening simultaneously HIV-1 and HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) (Cobas Amplicor Ampliscreen-Roche©). This test was replaced, in January 2007, by the simultaneous screening of HBV deoxyribonucleic acid, HCV RNA and HIV-1/HIV-2 RNA, in minipool (Cobas Taqscreen MPX Test-Roche©). The residual risk of transmitting viral infections during the transfusion of blood components is very small and has declined over the years. After the implementation of the nucleic acid testing in minipool for the three viruses, the risk of giving blood during an infectious window period was estimated as follows: for human immunodeficiency virus, 1 in 1.67 million, for hepatitis C virus 1 in 3.33 million and for hepatitis B virus 1 in 526 000. During the 12 years under study, we found a decrease in residual risk for the three viruses, by a factor around five for human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus, and 32 for hepatitis C virus. If we compare the estimates previously calculated for 1991-1998 period to 2007-2010 period (over 20 years), the decrease is still more relevant with a residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus respectively 19-fold, 6-fold and 54-fold lower.

ECOEPIDEMIOLOGY: A MEANS TO SAFEGUARD ECOSYSTEM SERVICES THAT SUSTAIN HUMAN WELFARE

EPA Science Inventory

Ecosystem services are required to sustain human life and enhance its quality. Hence, environmental security must come from protecting and managing those services. Ecological risk assessment can predict and estimate effects of proposed actions, but it is insufficient alone for tw...

Epidemiological studies on radiation carcinogenesis in human populations following acute exposure: nuclear explosions and medical radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1982-08-01

The present review provides an understanding of our current knowledge of the carcinogenic effect of low-dose radiation in man, and surveys the epidemiological studies of human populations exposed to nuclear explosions and medical radiation. Discussion centers on the contributions of quantitative epidemiology to present knowledge, the reliability of the dose-incidence data, and those relevant epidemiological studies that provide the most useful information for risk estimation of cancer-induction in man. Reference is made to dose-incidence relationships from laboratory animal experiments where they may obtain for problems and difficulties in extrapolation from data obtained at high doses to low doses, and frommore » animal data to the human situation. The paper describes the methods of application of such epidemiological data for estimation of excess risk of radiation-induced cancer in exposed human populations, and discusses the strengths and limitations of epidemiology in guiding radiation protection philosophy and public health policy.« less

Epidemiological studies on radiation carcinogenesis in human populations following acute exposure: nuclear explosions and medical radiation.

PubMed Central

Fabrikant, J. I.

1981-01-01

The present review provides an understanding of our current knowledge of the carcinogenic effect of low-dose radiation in man, and surveys the epidemiological studies of human populations exposed to nuclear explosions and medical radiation. Discussion centers on the contributions of quantitative epidemiology to present knowledge, the reliability of the dose-incidence data, and those relevant epidemiological studies that provide the most useful information for risk estimation of cancer induction in man. Reference is made to dose-incidence relationships from laboratory animal experiments where they may obtain, for problems and difficulties in extrapolation from data obtained at high doses to low doses, and from animal data to the human situation. The paper describes the methods of application of such epidemiological data for estimation of excess risk of radiation-induced cancer in exposed human populations and discusses the strengths and limitations of epidemiology in guiding radiation protection philosophy and public health policy. PMID:7043913

A novel land use approach for assessment of human health: The relationship between urban structure types and cardiorespiratory disease risk.

PubMed

Réquia Júnior, Weeberb João; Roig, Henrique Llacer; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-12-01

Extensive evidence shows that in addition to lifestyle factors, environmental aspects are an important risk factor for human health. Numerous approaches have been used to estimate the relationship between environment and health. For example, the urban characteristics, especially the types of land use, are considered a potential proxy indicator to evaluate risk of disease. Although several studies have used land use variables to assess human health, none of them has used the concept of Urban Morphology by Urban Structure Types (USTs) as indicators of land use. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between USTs and cardiorespiratory disease risks in the Federal District, Brazil. Toward this end, we used a quantile regression model to estimate risk. We used 21 types of UST. Income and population density were used as covariates in our sensitivity analysis. Our analysis showed an association between cardiorespiratory diseases risk and 10 UST variables (1 related to rural area, 6 related to residential area, 1 recreational area, 1 public area and 1 commercial area). Our findings suggest that the conventional land use method may be missing important information about the effect of land use on human health. The use of USTs can be an approach to complement the conventional method. This should be of interest to policy makers in order to enhance public health policies and to create future strategies in terms of urban planning, land use and environmental health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus.

PubMed

Cauchemez, Simon; Epperson, Scott; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Swerdlow, David; Finelli, Lyn; Ferguson, Neil M

2013-01-01

Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case). However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations. Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived. We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Physiological pharmacokinetic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Menzel, D.B.

1987-10-01

Risk assessment often defines the approach and the degree of regulation, decisions in risk assessment often have major regulatory impacts. Chemicals that have economic value or that were byproducts of the chemical industry are common subjects of such decisions. Regrettably, decisions related to risk assessment, science, or regulatory matters will frequently be made with incomplete information and on the basis of intuitive reasoning. Statistical fits to experimental data have been used to estimate risks in humans from experimental data in animals. These treatments have not taken into account the obvious differences in physiology, biochemistry, and size between aniamals and humans.more » In this article the use of mathematical models based on continuous relationships, rather than quantal events, are discussed. The mathematical models can be used to adjust the dose in the quantal response model, but the emphasis will be on how these mathematical models are conceived and what implications their use holds for risk assessment. Experiments with humans that produce toxic effects cannot be done. Data for human toxicity will always be lacking.« less

Modeling adverse environmental impacts on the reproductive system.

PubMed

Sussman, N B; Mazumdar, S; Mattison, D R

1999-03-01

When priority topics are being established for the study of women's health, it is generally agreed that one important area on which to focus research is reproduction. For example, increasing attention has been directed to environmental exposures that disrupt the endocrine system and alter reproduction. These concerns also suggest the need to give greater attention to the use of animal toxicologic testing to draw inferences about human reproductive risks. Successful reproduction requires multiple simultaneous and sequential processes in both the male and female, and the effect of toxicity on reproduction-related processes is time dependent. Currently, however, the risk assessment approach does not allow for the use of multiple processes or for considering the reproductive process response as a function of time. We discuss several issues in modeling exposure effects on reproductive function for risk assessment and present an overview of approaches for reproductive risk assessment. Recommendations are provided for an effective animal study design for determining reproductive risk that addresses optimization of the duration of dosing, observation of the effects of exposure on validated biomarkers, analysis of several biomarkers for complete characterization of the exposure on the underlying biologic processes, the need for longitudinally observed exposure effects, and a procedure for estimating human reproductive risk from the animal findings. An approach to characterizing reproductive toxicity to estimate the increased fertility risks in a dibromochloropropane (DBCP)-exposed human population is illustrated, using several reproductive biomarkers simultaneously from a longitudinal rabbit inhalation study of DBCP and an interspecies extrapolation method.

Human health risk analysis from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking and bathing water of some Indian cities

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Human health risk assessment from exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) during drinking and bathing water vary from country to country as per life expectancy, body mass index, water consumption pattern and individual concentration of DBPs component, etc. Methods Present study considered average direct water intake per person for adult males and females as 4 & 3 L/day, respectively as per Indian literature for risk evaluation from another component of pollutant. While other important factor like average life expectancy, body weight & body surface area for male and female were considered 64 & 67 years, 51.9 & 45.4 Kg and 1.54 & 1.38 m2 respectively as per Indian Council of Medical Research and WHO report. The corresponding lifetime cancer risk of the formed THMs to human beings was estimated by the USEPA and IRIS method as per Indian population. Results The total cancer risk reached 8.99 E-04 and 8.92 E-04 for males and females, respectively, the highest risk from THMs seems to be from the inhalation route followed by ingestion and dermal contacts. Conclusions The multipath way evaluations of lifetime cancer risks for THMs exposure through ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation exposure were examined at the highest degree of danger. Results reveals that water containing THMs of the selected water treatment plant of the eastern part of India was unsafe in terms of risk evaluation through inhalation and ingestion, while dermal route of risk was found very close to permissible limit of USEPA. Sensitivity analysis shows that every input parameter is sole responsible for total risk potential, whereas exposure duration playing important role for estimation of total risk. PMID:24872885

Health risk assessment of hazardous metals for population via consumption of seafood from Ogoniland, Rivers State, Nigeria; a case study of Kaa, B-Dere, and Bodo City.

PubMed

Nkpaa, K W; Patrick-Iwuanyanwu, K C; Wegwu, M O; Essien, E B

2016-01-01

This study was designed to investigate the human health risk through consumption of seafood from contaminated sites in Kaa, B-Dere, and Bodo City all in Ogoniland. The potential non-carcinogenic health risk for consumers were investigated by assessing the estimated daily intake and target hazard quotients for Cr, Cd, Zn, Pb, Mn, and Fe while carcinogenic health effect from Cr, Cd, and Pb was also estimated. The estimated daily intake from seafood consumption was below the threshold values for Cr, Mn, and Zn while they exceeded the threshold for Cd, Pb, and Fe. The target hazard quotients for Zn and Cr were below 1. Target hazard quotients values for Cd, Pb, Mn, and Fe were greater than 1 except for Fe level in Liza falcipinis from Kaa. Furthermore, estimation of carcinogenic risk for Cr in all samples under study exceeded the accepted risk level of 10E-4. Also, Cd carcinogenic risk level for L. falcipinis and Callinectes pallidus collected from B-Dere and C. pallidus collected from Bodo City was 1.1E-3 which also exceeded the accepted risk level of 10E-4 for Cd. Estimation of carcinogenic risk for Pb was within the acceptable range of 10E-4. Consumers of seafood from these sites in Ogoniland may be exposed to metal pollution.

Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

PubMed

Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

2008-11-15

The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

Health effects of risk-assessment categories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.

Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

An Evaluation of EPA's National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA): Comparison with Benzene Measurements in Detroit, Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA periodically evaluates ambient concentrations, human exposures, and health risks for 180 hazardous air pollutants plus diesel particulate matter using modeled estimates from the National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). NATA publishes estimates at the spatial reso...

Associations between summertime ambient pollutants and respiratory morbidity in New York City: Comparison of results using ambient concentrations versus predicted exposures

EPA Science Inventory

Epidemiological analyses of air quality often estimate human exposure from ambient monitoring data, potentially leading to exposure misclassification and subsequent bias in estimated health risks. To investigate this, we conducted a case-crossover study of summertime ambient ozon...

Risks of fatal cancer from inhalation of 239,240plutonium by humans: a combined four-method approach with uncertainty evaluation.

PubMed

Grogan, H A; Sinclair, W K; Voillequé, P G

2001-05-01

The risk per unit dose to the four primary cancer sites for plutonium inhalation exposure (lung, liver, bone, bone marrow) is estimated by combining the risk estimates that are derived from four independent approaches. Each approach represents a fundamentally different source of data from which plutonium risk estimates can be derived. These are: (1) epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to plutonium; (2) epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to low-LET radiation combined with a factor for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of plutonium alpha particles appropriate for each cancer site of concern; (3) epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to alpha-emitting radionuclides other than plutonium; and (4) controlled studies of animals exposed to plutonium and other alpha-emitting radionuclides extrapolated to humans. This procedure yielded the following organ-specific estimates of the distribution of mortality risk per unit dose from exposure to plutonium expressed as the median estimate with the 5th to 95th percentiles of the distribution in parentheses: lung 0.13 Gy(-1) (0.022-0.53 Gy(-1)); liver 0.057 Gy(-1) (0.011-0.47 Gy(-1)); bone 0.0013 Gy(-1) (0.000060-0.025 Gy(-1)); bone marrow (leukemia), 0.013 Gy(-1) (0.00061-0.05 Gy(-1)). Because the different tissues do not receive the same dose following an inhalation exposure, the mortality risk per unit intake of activity via inhalation of a 1-microm AMAD plutonium aerosol also was determined. To do this, inhalation dose coefficients based on the most recent ICRP models and accounting for input parameter uncertainties were combined with the risk coefficients described above. The following estimates of the distribution of mortality risk per unit intake were determined for a 1-microm AMAD plutonium aerosol with a geometric standard deviation of 2.5: lung 5.3 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.65-35 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), liver 1.2 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.091-20 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), bone 0.11 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.0030-4.3 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), bone marrow (leukemia) 0.049 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.0017-0.59 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)). The cancer mortality risk for all sites was estimated to be 10 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (2.1-55 x 10(-7) Bq(-1))--a result that agrees very well with other recent estimates. The large uncertainties in the risks per unit intake of activity reflect the combined uncertainty in the dose and risk coefficients.

The Virtual Liver Project: Simulating Tissue Injury Through Molecular and Cellular Processes

EPA Science Inventory

Efficiently and humanely testing the safety of thousands of environmental chemicals is a challenge. The US EPA Virtual Liver Project (v-Liver™) is aimed at simulating the effects of environmental chemicals computationally in order to estimate the risk of toxic outcomes in humans...

ECOLOGICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY: A MEANS TO SAFEGUARD SERVICES OF NATURE THAT SUSTAIN HUMAN WELFARE

EPA Science Inventory

The services provided by nature are required to sustain human life and enhance its quality. Hence, environmental security must come from protecting those services. Ecological risk assessment can predict and estimate effects of proposed actions, but it is insufficient alone for ...

Impact of using different blood donor subpopulations and models on the estimation of transfusion transmission residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and hepatitis C virus in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Mapako, Tonderai; Janssen, Mart P; Mvere, David A; Emmanuel, Jean C; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

2016-06-01

Various models for estimating the residual risk (RR) of transmission of infections by blood transfusion have been published mainly based on data from high-income countries. However, to obtain the data required for such an assessment remains challenging for most developing settings. The National Blood Service Zimbabwe (NBSZ) adapted a published incidence-window period (IWP) model, which has less demanding data requirements. In this study we assess the impact of various definitions of blood donor subpopulations and models on RR estimates. We compared the outcomes of two published models and an adapted NBSZ model. The Schreiber IWP model (Model 1), an amended version (Model 2), and an adapted NBSZ model (Model 3) were applied. Variably the three models include prevalence, incidence, preseroconversion intervals, mean lifetime risk, and person-years at risk. Annual mean RR estimates and 95% confidence intervals for each of the three models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) were determined using NBSZ blood donor data from 2002 through 2011. The annual mean RR estimates for Models 1 through 3 were 1 in 6542, 5805, and 6418, respectively for HIV; 1 in 1978, 2027, and 1628 for HBV; and 1 in 9588, 15,126, and 7750, for HCV. The adapted NBSZ model provided comparable results to the published methods and these highlight the high occurrence of HBV in Zimbabwe. The adapted NBSZ model could be used as an alternative to estimate RRs when in settings where two repeat donations are not available. © 2016 AABB.

Evaluation of triclosan in Minnesota lakes and rivers: Part II - human health risk assessment.

PubMed

Yost, Lisa J; Barber, Timothy R; Gentry, P Robinan; Bock, Michael J; Lyndall, Jennifer L; Capdevielle, Marie C; Slezak, Brian P

2017-08-01

Triclosan, an antimicrobial compound found in consumer products, has been detected in low concentrations in Minnesota municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. This assessment evaluates potential health risks for exposure of adults and children to triclosan in Minnesota surface water, sediments, and fish. Potential exposures via fish consumption are considered for recreational or subsistence-level consumers. This assessment uses two chronic oral toxicity benchmarks, which bracket other available toxicity values. The first benchmark is a lower bound on a benchmark dose associated with a 10% risk (BMDL 10 ) of 47mg per kilogram per day (mg/kg-day) for kidney effects in hamsters. This value was identified as the most sensitive endpoint and species in a review by Rodricks et al. (2010) and is used herein to derive an estimated reference dose (RfD (Rodricks) ) of 0.47mg/kg-day. The second benchmark is a reference dose (RfD) of 0.047mg/kg-day derived from a no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) of 10mg/kg-day for hepatic and hematopoietic effects in mice (Minnesota Department of Health [MDH] 2014). Based on conservative assumptions regarding human exposures to triclosan, calculated risk estimates are far below levels of concern. These estimates are likely to overestimate risks for potential receptors, particularly because sample locations were generally biased towards known discharges (i.e., WWTP effluent). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ESTIMATING THE RISK OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE ASSOCIATED WITH PATHOGENS IN DRINKING WATER

EPA Science Inventory

Most of the microorganisms present in aquatic environments seem to have no effect upon the health of humans. However, some clearly do represent a public health risk, and for this reason the latter are considered to be pathogenic in nature and referred to as being "pathogens". The...

EXPOSURE RECONSTRUCTION FOR REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENT: EXAMPLE USING MTBE BIOMARKERS AND SIMPLE PHARMACOKINETIC MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

Adverse health risks from environmental agents are generally related to average (long term) exposures. We used results from a series of controlled human exposure tests and classical first order rate kinetics calculations to estimate how well spot measurements of methyl tertiary ...

PREDICTIVE ORGANOPHOSPHORUS (OP) PESTICIDE QSARS AND PBPK/PD MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF SUSCEPTIBLE SUB-POPULATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Successful use of the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) in risk assessment of susceptible human sub-populations, e.g., infants and children, requires input of quality experimental data. In the clear absence of quality data, PBPK models can be developed and possibl...

THE USE OF NON-TUMOR DATA IN CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT: REFLECTIONS ON BENZENE, BUTADIENE AND VINYL CHLORIDE

EPA Science Inventory

1.0 Introduction. Quantitative estimation of human cancer risk from exposure to chemicals has traditionally been almost exclusively based on tumor incidence in experimental animals. While improvements in carcinogenicity testing in experimental animals (1,2) and structure-...

Independent data validation of an in vitro method for prediction of relative bioavailability of arsenic in contaminated soils

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro bioaccessibility assays (IVBA) estimate arsenic (As) relative bioavailability (RBA) in contaminated soils to improve the accuracy of site-specific human exposure assessments and risk calculations. For an IVBA assay to gain acceptance for use in risk assessment, it must ...

Human Lung Cancer Risks from Radon – Part III - Evidence of Influence of Combined Bystander and Adaptive Response Effects on Radon Case-Control Studies - A Microdose Analysis

PubMed Central

Leonard, Bobby E.; Thompson, Richard E.; Beecher, Georgia C.

2012-01-01

Since the publication of the BEIR VI (1999) report on health risks from radon, a significant amount of new data has been published showing various mechanisms that may affect the ultimate assessment of radon as a carcinogen, in particular the potentially deleterious Bystander Effect (BE) and the potentially beneficial Adaptive Response radio-protection (AR). The case-control radon lung cancer risk data of the pooled 13 European countries radon study (Darby et al 2005, 2006) and the 8 North American pooled study (Krewski et al 2005, 2006) have been evaluated. The large variation in the odds ratios of lung cancer from radon risk is reconciled, based on the large variation in geological and ecological conditions and variation in the degree of adaptive response radio-protection against the bystander effect induced lung damage. The analysis clearly shows Bystander Effect radon lung cancer induction and Adaptive Response reduction in lung cancer in some geographical regions. It is estimated that for radon levels up to about 400 Bq m−3 there is about a 30% probability that no human lung cancer risk from radon will be experienced and a 20% probability that the risk is below the zero-radon, endogenic spontaneous or perhaps even genetically inheritable lung cancer risk rate. The BEIR VI (1999) and EPA (2003) estimates of human lung cancer deaths from radon are most likely significantly excessive. The assumption of linearity of risk, by the Linear No-Threshold Model, with increasing radon exposure is invalid. PMID:22942874

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic

PubMed Central

Staples, J. Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B.; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F.; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A.

2015-01-01

Background Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. Methods A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Results Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. Conclusions A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. PMID:24947520

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Developing ecologically based PCB, pesticide, and metal remedial goals for an impacted northeast wooded swamp

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rury, P.M.; Turton, D.J.

Historically, remedial goals at hazardous waste sites have been developed based on human health risk estimates. As the disciplines of remedial investigation, risk assessment, and remedial design have evolved, there has been a shift toward the development of remedial goals that are protective of both human health and the environment. This has increased the need for sound quantitative ecological risk methodologies from which to derive ecologically protective remedial goals. The foundation of many ecological risk assessment models is the bioconcentration or bioaccumulation factor that estimates the partitioning of the compound of concern between the media (e.g., water, soil, or food)more » and the organism. Simple dietary food-chain models are then used to estimate the dose and resulting risk to higher trophic levels. For a Superfund site that encompassed a northeastern wooded swamp, a PCB pesticide and metal uptake and toxicity study was conducted on the earthworm commonly known as the red wiggler (Eisenea foetida). The study resulted in site-specific sediment to earthworm bioconcentration factors for PCBs and a range of pesticides and metals. In addition, largemouth bass and yellow perch were collected from an impacted pond to identify PCB and pesticide concentrations in mink (Mustela vison) prey. Utilizing the empirical data and site-specific bioconcentration factors in food-chain models, potential risks to the American woodcock (Scolopax minor) and mink were assessed, and ecologically protective PCB, pesticide, and metal remedial goals for the sediments of the wooded swamp were developed.« less

Factors affecting carriage and intensity of infection of Calodium hepaticum within Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) from an urban slum environment in Salvador, Brazil.

PubMed

Walker, R; Carvalho-Pereira, T; Serrano, S; Pedra, G; Hacker, K; Taylor, J; Minter, A; Pertile, A; Panti-May, A; Carvalho, M; Souza, F N; Nery, N; Rodrigues, G; Bahiense, T; Reis, M G; Ko, A I; Childs, J E; Begon, M; Costa, F

2017-01-01

Urban slum environments in the tropics are conducive to the proliferation and the spread of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens to humans. Calodium hepaticum (Brancroft, 1893) is a zoonotic nematode known to infect a variety of mammalian hosts, including humans. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are considered the most important mammalian host of C. hepaticum and are therefore a potentially useful species to inform estimates of the risk to humans living in urban slum environments. There is a lack of studies systematically evaluating the role of demographic and environmental factors that influence both carriage and intensity of infection of C. hepaticum in rodents from urban slum areas within tropical regions. Carriage and the intensity of infection of C. hepaticum were studied in 402 Norway rats over a 2-year period in an urban slum in Salvador, Brazil. Overall, prevalence in Norway rats was 83% (337/402). Independent risk factors for C. hepaticum carriage in R. norvegicus were age and valley of capture. Of those infected the proportion with gross liver involvement (i.e. >75% of the liver affected, a proxy for a high level intensity of infection), was low (8%, 26/337). Sixty soil samples were collected from ten locations to estimate levels of environmental contamination and provide information on the potential risk to humans of contracting C. hepaticum from the environment. Sixty percent (6/10) of the sites were contaminated with C. hepaticum. High carriage levels of C. hepaticum within Norway rats and sub-standard living conditions within slum areas may increase the risk to humans of exposure to the infective eggs of C. hepaticum. This study supports the need for further studies to assess whether humans are becoming infected within this community and whether C. hepaticum is posing a significant risk to human health.

Estimated Daily Average Per Capita Water Ingestion by Child and Adult Age Categories Based on USDA's 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The a...

Transport calculations and accelerator experiments needed for radiation risk assessment in space.

PubMed

Sihver, Lembit

2008-01-01

The major uncertainties on space radiation risk estimates in humans are associated to the poor knowledge of the biological effects of low and high LET radiation, with a smaller contribution coming from the characterization of space radiation field and its primary interactions with the shielding and the human body. However, to decrease the uncertainties on the biological effects and increase the accuracy of the risk coefficients for charged particles radiation, the initial charged-particle spectra from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and the Solar Particle Events (SPEs), and the radiation transport through the shielding material of the space vehicle and the human body, must be better estimated Since it is practically impossible to measure all primary and secondary particles from all possible position-projectile-target-energy combinations needed for a correct risk assessment in space, accurate particle and heavy ion transport codes must be used. These codes are also needed when estimating the risk for radiation induced failures in advanced microelectronics, such as single-event effects, etc., and the efficiency of different shielding materials. It is therefore important that the models and transport codes will be carefully benchmarked and validated to make sure they fulfill preset accuracy criteria, e.g. to be able to predict particle fluence, dose and energy distributions within a certain accuracy. When validating the accuracy of the transport codes, both space and ground based accelerator experiments are needed The efficiency of passive shielding and protection of electronic devices should also be tested in accelerator experiments and compared to simulations using different transport codes. In this paper different multipurpose particle and heavy ion transport codes will be presented, different concepts of shielding and protection discussed, as well as future accelerator experiments needed for testing and validating codes and shielding materials.

Comparison of Measured and Predicted Bioconcentration Estimates of Pharmaceuticals in Fish Plasma and Prediction of Chronic Risk.

PubMed

Nallani, Gopinath; Venables, Barney; Constantine, Lisa; Huggett, Duane

2016-05-01

Evaluation of the environmental risk of human pharmaceuticals is now a mandatory component in all new drug applications submitted for approval in EU. With >3000 drugs currently in use, it is not feasible to test each active ingredient, so prioritization is key. A recent review has listed nine prioritization approaches including the fish plasma model (FPM). The present paper focuses on comparison of measured and predicted fish plasma bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of four common over-the-counter/prescribed pharmaceuticals: norethindrone (NET), ibuprofen (IBU), verapamil (VER) and clozapine (CLZ). The measured data were obtained from the earlier published fish BCF studies. The measured BCF estimates of NET, IBU, VER and CLZ were 13.4, 1.4, 0.7 and 31.2, while the corresponding predicted BCFs (based log Kow at pH 7) were 19, 1.0, 7.6 and 30, respectively. These results indicate that the predicted BCFs matched well the measured values. The BCF estimates were used to calculate the human: fish plasma concentration ratios of each drug to predict potential risk to fish. The plasma ratio results show the following order of risk potential for fish: NET > CLZ > VER > IBU. The FPM has value in prioritizing pharmaceutical products for ecotoxicological assessments.

Application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of trichloroethylene in rats for estimation of internal dose

EPA Science Inventory

Potential human health risk from chemical exposure must often be assessed for conditions for which suitable human or animal data are not available, requiring extrapolation across duration and concentration. The default method for exposure-duration adjustment is based on Haber's r...

Concentrations of prioritized pharmaceuticals in effluents from 50 large wastewater treatment plants in the US and implications for risk estimation.

PubMed

Kostich, Mitchell S; Batt, Angela L; Lazorchak, James M

2014-01-01

We measured concentrations of 56 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in effluent samples from 50 large wastewater treatment plants across the US. Hydrochlorothiazide was found in every sample. Metoprolol, atenolol, and carbamazepine were found in over 90% of the samples. Valsartan had the highest concentration (5300 ng/L), and also had the highest average concentration (1600 ng/L) across all 50 samples. Estimates of potential risks to healthy human adults were greatest for six anti-hypertensive APIs (lisinopril, hydrochlorothiazide, valsartan, atenolol, enalaprilat, and metoprolol), but nevertheless suggest risks of exposure to individual APIs as well as their mixtures are generally very low. Estimates of potential risks to aquatic life were also low for most APIs, but suggest more detailed study of potential ecological impacts from four analytes (sertraline, propranolol, desmethylsertraline, and valsartan). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

2014-12-01

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Denguemore » and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.« less

Assessing and Refining Myocardial Infarction Risk Estimation among Patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus

PubMed Central

Feinstein, Matthew J.; Nance, Robin M.; Drozd, Daniel R.; Ning, Hongyan; Delaney, Joseph A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Mathews, William C.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Saag, Michael S.; Eron, Joseph J.; Moore, Richard D.; Achenbach, Chad J.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Crane, Heidi M.

2017-01-01

Importance Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) have improved longevity but are at elevated risk for myocardial infarction (MI) due to common MI risk factors and HIV-specific factors. Despite these elevated MI rates, optimal methods to predict MI risks for HIV-infected persons remain unclear. Objective To determine the extent to which existing and de novo estimation tools predict MI in a multi-center HIV cohort with rigorous MI adjudication. Design We evaluated the performance of standard-of-care and two new data-derived MI risk estimation models in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) multi-center prospective clinical cohort. The new risk estimation models were validated in a cohort separate from the derivation cohort. Setting Clinical sites across the U.S. where HIV-infected adults receive medical care in inpatient and outpatient settings. Participants HIV-infected adults receiving care anytime since 1995 at 5 CNICS sites where MIs were adjudicated (N=19829). Exposures Common cardiovascular risk factors, HIV viral load, CD4 count, and medication use were used to calculate predicted event rates. Main Outcome and Measures Observed MI rates over the course of follow-up, scaled to 10 years using an observed prime approach to account for dropout and loss to follow-up prior to 10 years. Results MI rates were higher among blacks, older participants, and participants who were not virally suppressed. The 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), which predict composite rates of MI and stroke, adequately discriminated MI risk (Harrell’s C Statistic = 0.75). Two data-derived models incorporating HIV-specific covariates exhibited weak calibration in a validation sample and did not discriminate risk any better (Harrell’s C Statistic = 0.72 and 0.73) than the PCEs. The PCEs were moderately calibrated in CNICS but predicted consistently lower than observed prime rates of MI. The PCEs Conclusions and relevance The PCEs discriminated MI risk and were moderately calibrated in this multi-center HIV cohort. Adding HIV-specific factors did not improve model performance. As HIV-infected cohorts capture and assess outcomes of MI and stroke, the performance of risk estimation tools should be revisited. PMID:28002550

Developing a Screening Model to Establish Human Risk from Glacial Meltwater Release of Legacy Organochlorine Pollutants at the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miner, K. R.

2017-12-01

Organochlorine pollutants (OCPs) banned globally by the Stockholm Convention in 2004 are reemerging from melting glaciers in numerous alpine ecosystems. Despite the known OCP influx from glaciers, a study of human risk from uptake of pesticides in glacial meltwater has never been attempted. Our study qualifies human uptake routes and quantifies risk utilizing published meltwater data from the Silvretta Glacier in the Swiss Alps in combination with methodology established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Relatively high concentrations of OCPs in Silvretta glacier meltwater reflect proximity to use near high density populations and provide the best estimate of a 95th percentile human risk scenario. This screening level model assesses direct PCB risk to humans through consumption of fish tissue and meltwater. Our model shows a risk for both cancer and non-cancer disease impacts to children with lifetime exposure to glacial meltwater and an average local fish consumption. For adults with an abbreviated 30 year exposure timeframe, the risk for non-cancer effects is negligible and cancer effects are only barely above screening level. Populations that consume higher quantities of local fish are at greater risk, with additional challenges borne by children. Further direct study into the individual level risk to Swiss residents from glacial meltwater pollution is deemed necessary by our screening study.

Usefulness of an Online Risk Estimator for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Predicting Corticosteroid Treatment in Infants Born Preterm.

PubMed

Cuna, Alain; Liu, Cynthia; Govindarajan, Shree; Queen, Margaret; Dai, Hongying; Truog, William E

2018-06-01

To assess the usefulness of a bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) outcome estimator developed by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) in identifying high-risk preterm infants treated with steroids. This was a single-center retrospective study of infants born ≤30 weeks of gestational age. The NICHD BPD outcome estimator was used to retrospectively calculate BPD risk at various postnatal ages. The best combination of risk estimates for identifying steroid treatment was identified using stepwise model selection. A cut-off value with the best combination of sensitivity and specificity was identified using receiver operating characteristic analysis. A total of 165 infants born preterm (mean gestational age 26 ± 1.6 weeks, mean birth weight 837 ± 171 g) were included. Of these, 61 were treated with steroids for BPD and 104 were not. Risk estimates for BPD or death were significantly greater in infants treated with steroids compared with controls. Both combined risk for severe BPD or death and single risk of no BPD were identified as factors with the best predictive power for identifying treatment with steroids, with accurate prediction possible as early as the second week of life. A greater than 37% risk for severe BPD or death or a less than 3% risk of no BPD on day of life 14 had 84%-92% sensitivity and 77%-80% specificity for predicting steroid treatment. The NICHD BPD outcome estimator can be a useful objective tool for identifying infants at high risk for BPD who may benefit from postnatal steroids. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research

PubMed Central

Resnik, David B.

2016-01-01

One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this paper, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks. PMID:27294429

The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research.

PubMed

Resnik, David B

2017-01-01

One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this article, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks.

[Potential health risks from consumption of water with arsenic in Colima, Mexico].

PubMed

Mendoza-Cano, Oliver; Sánchez-Piña, Ramón Alberto; Barrón-Quintana, Julián; Cuevas-Arellano, Herguin Benjamin; Escalante-Minakata, Pilar; Solano-Barajas, Ramón

2017-01-01

To estimate potential health risks due to chronic ingestion of arsenic from groundwater in Colima, Mexico. Samples were randomly taken in 36 wells from 10 local aquifers. Analysis was performed by ICP-OES following international standards. Geostatistical interpolation was performed with ArcGIS, implementing a model weighting inverse distance to estimate arsenic routes of exposure and consumption on each locality. The Hazard Quotient Ratio (HQ) and carcinogenic risk (R) for As were estimated. The weighted average HQ for arsenic in Colima is 2.41. There are HQ> 1 values indicating adverse non-cancer health effects by continuous and prolonged intake of water with arsenic, which could affect 183 832 individuals in the state. The risk of developing any type of cancer among the population in this study due to high arsenic concentrations in groundwater (R) is 1.089E-3, which could statistically cause 446 cases of cancer. Current levels of arsenic in groundwater increase carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human health risks in Colima.

How safe is safe enough? Radiation risk for a human mission to Mars.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; Kim, Myung-Hee Y; Chappell, Lori J; Huff, Janice L

2013-01-01

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR)--made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate.

How Safe Is Safe Enough? Radiation Risk for a Human Mission to Mars

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.; Huff, Janice L.

2013-01-01

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate. PMID:24146746

Evidence of carcinogenicity in humans of water-soluble nickel salts

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Increased risks of nasal cancer and lung cancer in nickel refiners have been investigated scientifically and discussed since they were detected in the 1930s. Nickel compounds are considered to be the main cause of the cancer excess. Parts of the nickel producing industry and their consultants oppose the classification of water-soluble nickel salts as human carcinogens, and argue that the risk in exposed workers should be ascribed to other occupational exposures and smoking. Discussion Respiratory cancer risks in Welsh, Finnish, and Norwegian nickel refiners add to the evidence of carcinogenicity of water-soluble nickel. In Norwegian refiners, the first epidemiological study in 1973 identified high risks of lung cancer and nasal cancer among long-term electrolysis workers. Risk analyses based on exposure estimates developed in the 1980s supported the view that water-soluble nickel compounds were central in the development of cancer. Recently, new exposure estimates were worked out for the same cohort based on personal monitoring of total nickel and chemical determination of four forms of nickel. Additional data have been collected on life-time smoking habits, and on exposure to arsenic, asbestos, sulphuric acid mists, cobalt, and occupational lung carcinogens outside the refinery. After adjustment for these potential confounding exposures in case-control analyses, the risk pattern added to the evidence of an important role of water-soluble nickel compounds as causes of lung cancer. These Norwegian cancer studies rely on national Cancer Registry data, considered close to complete from 1953 onwards; and on National Population Register data continuously updated with mortality and emigration. Canadian mortality studies--perceived to offer the strongest support to the industry position not to recognise carcinogenicity of water-soluble nickel--appear to suffer from limitations in follow-up time, loss to follow-up, absence of risk analysis with individual exposure estimates, no confounder control, and a likely underestimation of cancer mortality. Conclusions Rejection to recognise water-soluble nickel as a human carcinogen seems to contradict material epidemiological evidence that demonstrates a strong association between water-soluble nickel compounds and risks of lung cancer and nasal cancer. Independent international scientific bodies have classified nickel compounds as carcinogenic to humans, inclusive of water-soluble nickel. PMID:20377901

A risk assessment of topical tretinoin as a potential human developmental toxin based on animal and comparative human data.

PubMed

Johnson, E M

1997-03-01

Although topically applied all-trans-retinoic acid (tretinoin) undergoes minimal absorption and adds negligibly to normal endogenous levels, its safety in humans is occasionally questioned because oral ingestion of retinoids at therapeutic levels is known to entail teratogenic risks. To assess the actual potential for developmental toxicity from treatment with topical tretinoin. Risk assessments were conducted on four known human developmental toxicants (valproic acid, methotrexate, thalidomide, and isotretinoin) and a potential developmental toxicant (acetylsalicylic acid). The margin of safety for each chemical was calculated from the ratio of animal no-observed adverse effect levels to human lowest-observed adverse effect levels or estimated exposure doses. The derived safety margin of more than 100 for topical tretinoin (with 2% absorption) contrasted sharply with the near unity values for valproic acid, methotrexate, thalidomide, and isotretinoin and was larger than that for acetylsalicylic acid. These data support other epidemiologic and animal data that topical tretinoin is not a potential human developmental toxicant.

Seroprevalence of Brucella spp. in Cattle, Molecular Characterization in Milk, and the Analysis of Associated Risk Factors with Seroprevalence in Humans, Egypt.

PubMed

El-Diasty, Mohamed M; Ahmed, Heba A; Sayour, Ashraf E; El Hofy, Fatma I; Tahoun, Asmaa B M B; Shafik, Saleh M

2016-12-01

The objective of the present study was to estimate the seroprevalence of Brucella spp. in humans and cattle at Sharkia Governorate, Egypt. In addition, identification of Brucella spp. in milk samples by PCR and culture with the evaluation of the risk factors associated with Brucella spp. seroprevalence in humans were carried out. Overall, the seroprevalence of Brucella antibodies in the examined cattle was 23.8%, while in human participants it was 21%. The examination of 205 milk samples using PCR revealed that 6.3% were positive for B. abortus biovar 1 and the results were confirmed by culture methods. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that consumption of unpasteurized dairy products, occupational contact with animals, and knowledge about the disease are risk factors associated with infection in humans. This study documented the endemic status of brucellosis in Egypt. Hygienic measures and increased awareness about the disease are recommended to minimize the spread of infection from animals to humans.

Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Wessells, K Ryan; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel

2015-10-01

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global risk of zinc deficiency. We estimated per capita per day bioavailable intake of zinc for the populations of 188 countries at ambient CO2 concentrations (375-384 ppm) using food balance sheet data for 2003-07 from the Food and Agriculture Organization. We then used previously published data from free air CO2 enrichment and open-top chamber experiments to model zinc intake at elevated CO2 concentrations (550 ppm, which is the concentration expected by 2050). Estimates developed by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group were used for country-specific theoretical mean daily per-capita physiological requirements for zinc. Finally, we used these data on zinc bioavailability and population-weighted estimated average zinc requirements to estimate the risk of inadequate zinc intake among the populations of the different nations under the two scenarios (ambient and elevated CO2). The difference between the population at risk at elevated and ambient CO2 concentrations (ie, population at new risk of zinc deficiency) was our measure of impact. The total number of people estimated to be placed at new risk of zinc deficiency by 2050 was 138 million (95% CI 120-156). The people likely to be most affected live in Africa and South Asia, with nearly 48 million (32-63) residing in India alone. Global maps of increased risk show significant heterogeneity. Our results indicate that one heretofore unquantified human health effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be a significant increase in the human population at risk of zinc deficiency. Our country-specific findings can be used to help guide interventions aimed at reducing this vulnerability. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Winslow Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Myers et al. Open access article published under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Fraction of Cancer Attributable to Ways of Life, Infections, Occupation, and Environmental Agents in Brazil in 2020

PubMed Central

Azevedo e Silva, Gulnar; de Moura, Lenildo; Curado, Maria Paula; Gomes, Fabio da Silva; Otero, Ubirani; de Rezende, Leandro Fórnias Machado; Daumas, Regina Paiva; Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Meira, Karina Cardoso; Leite, Iuri da Costa; Valente, Joaquim Gonçalves; Moreira, Ronaldo Ismério; Koifman, Rosalina; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mello, Marcia Sarpa de Campos; Guedes, Thiago Wagnos Guimarães; Boffetta, Paolo

2016-01-01

Many human cancers develop as a result of exposure to risk factors related to the environment and ways of life. The aim of this study was to estimate attributable fractions of 25 types of cancers resulting from exposure to modifiable risk factors in Brazil. The prevalence of exposure to selected risk factors among adults was obtained from population-based surveys conducted from 2000 to 2008. Risk estimates were based on data drawn from meta-analyses or large, high quality studies. Population-attributable fractions (PAF) for a combination of risk factors, as well as the number of preventable deaths and cancer cases, were calculated for 2020. The known preventable risk factors studied will account for 34% of cancer cases among men and 35% among women in 2020, and for 46% and 39% deaths, respectively. The highest attributable fractions were estimated for tobacco smoking, infections, low consumption of fruits and vegetables, excess weight, reproductive factors, and physical inactivity. This is the first study to systematically estimate the fraction of cancer attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in Brazil. Strategies for primary prevention of tobacco smoking and control of infection and the promotion of a healthy diet and physical activity should be the main priorities in policies for cancer prevention in the country. PMID:26863517

Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.

2003-01-01

Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure to ionizing space radiation is challenging in part because of uncertainties of low-dose distribution amongst cells, of unknown potentially synergistic effects of microgravity upon cellular protein-expression, and of processing dose-related damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant transformation, degrade the confidence of cancer risk-estimates. The NASA- specific responsibility to estimate the risks of radiogenic cancer in a limited number of astronauts is not amenable to epidemiologic study, thereby increasing this challenge. Developing adequately sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed close after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing malignant transformation by the cells absorbing that dose could be useful for resolving these challenges. Use of a multiparametric cellular biodosimeter is suggested using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for cancer-risk. Analytical techniques of genomics and proteomics may be used to establish dose-dependency of multiple gene- and protein- expressions resulting from radiation-induced cellular damage. Furthermore, gene- and protein-expression from cells in microgravity are known to be altered relative to cells grown on the ground at 1g. Therefore, hypotheses are proposed that 1) macromolecular expression caused by radiation-induced damage in cells in microgravity may be different than on the ground, and 2) different patterns of macromolecular expression in microgravity may alter human radiogenic cancer risk relative to radiation exposure on Earth. A new paradigm is accordingly suggested as a national database wherein genomic and proteomic datasets are registered and interrogated in order to provide statistically significant dose-dependent risk estimation of radiogenic cancer in astronauts.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) as a Compliment to epidemiologic Studies Estimating Bather Risk at Recreational Beaches

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA and WHO have set recreational water quality standards based on epidemiologic studies to protect human health at beaches. These studies have largely been limited to sewage-impacted sites and resources are unlikely to be available to assess the myriad of other impacted s...

You're standing on it! Coal-tar-based pavement sealcoat and environmental and human health

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.

2013-01-01

Results from a new study by researchers from Baylor University and the USGS indicate that living adjacent to a coal-tar-sealed pavement is associated with significant increases in estimated excess lifetime cancer risk, and that much of the increased risk occurs during early childhood.

Preliminary human health risk assessment of arsenic and fluoride in tap water from Zacatecas, México.

PubMed

Martínez-Acuña, Mónica I; Mercado-Reyes, Marisa; Alegría-Torres, Jorge A; Mejía-Saavedra, José J

2016-08-01

Zacatecas state is located in the central area of Mexico, where the underground water contains elevated quantities of natural arsenic and fluoride. In order to estimate health risk associated with human exposure to these pollutants, tap water samples from the southern-central region of the state were analyzed. Ninety percent of the samples exceeded the levels of arsenic established by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.01 mg/L and 43 % exceeded the limit established by the NOM-127-SSA1(1) of 0.025 mg/L. Forty-three percent of the samples had fluoride levels above the Mexican regulation limit of 1.5 mg/L (NOM-127-SSA1). We used WHO and EPA's health risk assessment method, we estimated 80 % of the inhabitants of sites studied could be exposed to arsenic levels higher than those recommended by EPA and the WHO, 22 % could be exposed to fluoride levels higher than those recommended by EPA, and 16 % of the local population may be in risk of suffering dental fluorosis.

A methodology for overall consequence modeling in chemical industry.

PubMed

Arunraj, N S; Maiti, J

2009-09-30

Risk assessment in chemical process industry is a very important issue for safeguarding human and the ecosystem from damages caused to them. Consequence assessment is an integral part of risk assessment. However, the commonly used consequence estimation methods involve time-consuming complex mathematical models and simple assimilation of losses without considering all the consequence factors. This lead to the deterioration of quality of estimated risk value. So, the consequence modeling has to be performed in detail considering all major losses with optimal time to improve the decisive value of risk. The losses can be broadly categorized into production loss, assets loss, human health and safety loss, and environment loss. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed to assess the overall consequence considering all the important components of major losses. Secondly, a methodology is developed for the calculation of all the major losses, which are normalized to yield the overall consequence. Finally, as an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study plant involving benzene extraction. The case study result using the proposed consequence assessment scheme is compared with that from the existing methodologies.

Prevalence and risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in meat products destined for human consumption

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that is responsible for approximately 24% of all estimated deaths attributed to foodborne pathogens in the U.S. Human infection results from accidental ingestion of oocysts, from the environment, in water or on insufficiently washed produce or through consum...

Suspect Screening Analysis of Chemicals in Consumer Products.

PubMed

Phillips, Katherine A; Yau, Alice; Favela, Kristin A; Isaacs, Kristin K; McEachran, Andrew; Grulke, Christopher; Richard, Ann M; Williams, Antony J; Sobus, Jon R; Thomas, Russell S; Wambaugh, John F

2018-03-06

A two-dimensional gas chromatography-time-of-flight/mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOF/MS) suspect screening analysis method was used to rapidly characterize chemicals in 100 consumer products-which included formulations (e.g., shampoos, paints), articles (e.g., upholsteries, shower curtains), and foods (cereals)-and therefore supports broader efforts to prioritize chemicals based on potential human health risks. Analyses yielded 4270 unique chemical signatures across the products, with 1602 signatures tentatively identified using the National Institute of Standards and Technology 2008 spectral database. Chemical standards confirmed the presence of 119 compounds. Of the 1602 tentatively identified chemicals, 1404 were not present in a public database of known consumer product chemicals. Reported data and model predictions of chemical functional use were applied to evaluate the tentative chemical identifications. Estimated chemical concentrations were compared to manufacturer-reported values and other measured data. Chemical presence and concentration data can now be used to improve estimates of chemical exposure, and refine estimates of risk posed to human health and the environment.

Stability basin estimates fall risk from observed kinematics, demonstrated on the Sit-to-Stand task.

PubMed

Shia, Victor; Moore, Talia Yuki; Holmes, Patrick; Bajcsy, Ruzena; Vasudevan, Ram

2018-04-27

The ability to quantitatively measure stability is essential to ensuring the safety of locomoting systems. While the response to perturbation directly reflects the stability of a motion, this experimental method puts human subjects at risk. Unfortunately, existing indirect methods for estimating stability from unperturbed motion have been shown to have limited predictive power. This paper leverages recent advances in dynamical systems theory to accurately estimate the stability of human motion without requiring perturbation. This approach relies on kinematic observations of a nominal Sit-to-Stand motion to construct an individual-specific dynamic model, input bounds, and feedback control that are then used to compute the set of perturbations from which the model can recover. This set, referred to as the stability basin, was computed for 14 individuals, and was able to successfully differentiate between less and more stable Sit-to-Stand strategies for each individual with greater accuracy than existing methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of human health risks posed by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic multiple contaminants associated with consumption of fish from Taihu Lake, China.

PubMed

Yu, Yingxin; Wang, Xinxin; Yang, Dan; Lei, Bingli; Zhang, Xiaolan; Zhang, Xinyu

2014-07-01

The present study estimated the human daily intake and uptake of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and toxic trace elements [mercury (Hg), chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), and arsenic (As)] due to consumption of fish from Taihu Lake, China, and the associated potential health risks posed by these contaminants. The health risks posed by the contaminants were assessed using a risk quotient of the fish consumption rate to the maximum allowable fish consumption rate considering the contaminants for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effect endpoints. The results showed that fish consumption would not pose non-cancer risks. However, some species would cause a cancer risk. Relative risks of the contaminants were calculated to investigate the contaminant which posed the highest risk to humans. As a result, in view of the contaminants for carcinogenic effects, As was the contaminant which posed the highest risk to humans. However, when non-carcinogenic effects of the contaminants were considered, Hg posed the highest risk. The risk caused by PBDEs was negligible. The results demonstrated that traditional contaminants, such as As, Hg, DDTs (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites), and PCBs, require more attention in Taihu Lake than the other target contaminants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

PubMed

Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

2003-10-01

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

Risk of serious neurologic disease after immunization of young children in Britain and Ireland.

PubMed

Ward, Katherine N; Bryant, Naomi J; Andrews, Nick J; Bowley, Jennifer S; Ohrling, Anu; Verity, Christopher M; Ross, Euan M; Miller, Elizabeth

2007-08-01

We sought to investigate the risk of serious neurologic disease after immunization in early childhood. The results of a 3-year prospective study of children (2-35 months old) in Britain and Ireland with encephalitis and/or severe illness with convulsions and fever were linked to each child's vaccine history. Cases were reported via the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit's network. The self-controlled case-series method was used to investigate associations between immunization and acute potential adverse events. The risk periods investigated were 0 to 3 and 0 to 7 days post-diphtheria, tetanus, whole cell pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type b or meningococcal C conjugate vaccine and 6 to 11 and 15 to 35 days post-measles, mumps, rubella vaccine. A total of 157 disease episodes from 155 children met the analytical case definition. There were 11 cases of herpes simplex encephalitis and 23 cases of primary human herpesvirus 6 and/or 7 infection. There was no evidence of a raised relative incidence of serious neurologic disease in any of the specified risk periods with the exception of a raised relative incidence of 5.68 in the 6-11 days after measles, mumps, rubella vaccine. Based on this relative incidence, between 3 and 6 of the 6 cases in this period were estimated to be attributable to the vaccine with a best estimate of 5. The 6 cases all had fever with convulsions lasting >30 minutes; in all but 1, there was complete recovery by discharge from hospital. Of the 5 patients who recovered, 1 had a concurrent primary human herpesvirus 6 infection and one a primary human herpesvirus 7. Six to 11 days after measles, mumps, rubella vaccine there is an increased risk of fever and convulsions lasting >30 minutes. All 6 of the episodes temporally related to immunization met the criteria for complex febrile convulsions. The estimated attributable risk of serious neurological disease was similar to that previously found for measles vaccine.

Geographic variation in the relationship between human Lyme disease incidence and density of infected host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the Eastern United States.

PubMed

Pepin, Kim M; Eisen, Rebecca J; Mead, Paul S; Piesman, Joseph; Fish, Durland; Hoen, Anne G; Barbour, Alan G; Hamer, Sarah; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A

2012-06-01

Prevention and control of Lyme disease is difficult because of the complex biology of the pathogen's (Borrelia burgdorferi) vector (Ixodes scapularis) and multiple reservoir hosts with varying degrees of competence. Cost-effective implementation of tick- and host-targeted control methods requires an understanding of the relationship between pathogen prevalence in nymphs, nymph abundance, and incidence of human cases of Lyme disease. We quantified the relationship between estimated acarological risk and human incidence using county-level human case data and nymphal prevalence data from field-derived estimates in 36 eastern states. The estimated density of infected nymphs (mDIN) was significantly correlated with human incidence (r = 0.69). The relationship was strongest in high-prevalence areas, but it varied by region and state, partly because of the distribution of B. burgdorferi genotypes. More information is needed in several high-prevalence states before DIN can be used for cost-effectiveness analyses.

Effectiveness of Ebola treatment units and community care centers - Liberia, September 23-October 31, 2014.

PubMed

Washington, Michael L; Meltzer, Martin L

2015-01-30

Previous reports have shown that an Ebola outbreak can be slowed, and eventually stopped, by placing Ebola patients into settings where there is reduced risk for onward Ebola transmission, such as Ebola treatment units (ETUs) and community care centers (CCCs) or equivalent community settings that encourage changes in human behaviors to reduce transmission risk, such as making burials safe and reducing contact with Ebola patients. Using cumulative case count data from Liberia up to August 28, 2014, the EbolaResponse model previously estimated that without any additional interventions or further changes in human behavior, there would have been approximately 23,000 reported Ebola cases by October 31, 2014. In actuality, there were 6,525 reported cases by that date. To estimate the effectiveness of ETUs and CCCs or equivalent community settings in preventing greater Ebola transmission, CDC applied the EbolaResponse model to the period September 23-October 31, 2014, in Liberia. The results showed that admitting Ebola patients to ETUs alone prevented an estimated 2,244 Ebola cases. Having patients receive care in CCCs or equivalent community settings with a reduced risk for Ebola transmission prevented an estimated 4,487 cases. Having patients receive care in either ETUs or CCCs or in equivalent community settings, prevented an estimated 9,100 cases, apparently as the result of a synergistic effect in which the impact of the combined interventions was greater than the sum of the two interventions. Caring for patients in ETUs, CCCs, or in equivalent community settings with reduced risk for transmission can be important components of a successful public health response to an Ebola epidemic.

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis-associated deaths due to Listeria monocytogenes contamination of deli meats originating from manufacture and retail.

PubMed

Pradhan, Abani K; Ivanek, Renata; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Bukowski, Robert; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Sofos, John N; Wiedmann, Martin

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7 degrees C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.

1995-06-01

This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

Why quantify risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, R.; Frisch, B.; Saleem, A.

1991-08-01

The topic of risk to human life is addressed from different viewpoints. The question is raised whether risk assessment is good only as a tool for ranking risk sources or whether it actually yields sensible numbers for estimating the risk of events. Various measures for the quantification of risk (e.g., deaths per million, activity specific hourly mortality rate) are given and their applications are discussed. The implications of the different uses for risk numbers are explained. Known risks of several activities are used as a baseline for the discussion of the selection criteria for an achievable safety goal for manned space flight.

A pesticide monitoring survey in rivers and lakes of northern Greece and its human and ecotoxicological risk assessment.

PubMed

Papadakis, Emmaluel N; Vryzas, Zisis; Kotopoulou, Athena; Kintzikoglou, Katerina; Makris, Konstantinos C; Papadopoulou-Mourkidou, Euphemia

2015-06-01

A pesticide monitoring study covering the main rivers and lakes of Northern Greece (Macedonia, Thrace and Thessaly) was undertaken. A total of 416 samples were collected over a 1.5-year sampling period (September 1999- February 2001) from six rivers and ten lakes. The water samples were analyzed with an off-line solid phase extraction technique coupled with a gas chromatography ion trap mass spectrometer using an analytical method for 147 pesticides and their metabolites, including organochlorines, organophosphates, triazines, chloroacetanilides, pyrethroids, carbamates, phthalimides and other pesticides (herbicides, insecticides and fungicides). Based on the pesticide survey results, a human health carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment was conducted for adults and children. Ecotoxicological risk assessment was also conducted using default endpoint values and the risk quotient method. Results showed that the herbicides metolachlor, prometryn, alachlor and molinate, were the most frequently detected pesticides (29%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 10%, respectively). They also exhibited the highest concentration values, often exceeding 1 μg/L. Chlorpyrifos ethyl was the most frequently detected insecticide (7%). Seasonal variations in measured pesticide concentrations were observed in all rivers and lakes. The highest concentrations were recorded during May-June period, right after pesticide application. Concentrations of six pesticides were above the maximum allowable limit of 0.1 μg/L set for drinking water. Alachlor, atrazine and a-HCH showed unacceptable carcinogenic risk estimates (4.5E-06, 4.6E-06 and 1.3E-04, respectively). Annual average concentrations of chlorpyriphos ethyl (0.031 μg L), dicofol (0.01 μg/L), dieldrin (0.02 μg/L) and endosulfan a (0.065 μg/L) exceeded the EU environmental quality standards. The risk quotient estimates for the insecticides chorpyrifos ethyl, diazinon and parathion methyl and herbicide prometryn were above acceptable risk values. The coupling of monitoring data to probabilistic human and ecotoxicological risk estimates could find use by Greek regulatory authorities, proposing effective pollution management schemes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of sport fish harvest for risk and hazard assessment of environmental contaminants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poston, T.M.; Strenge, D.L.

1989-01-01

Consumption of contaminated fish flesh can be a significant route of human exposure to hazardous chemicals. Estimation of exposure resulting from the consumption of fish requires knowledge of fish consumption and contaminant levels in the edible portion of fish. Realistic figures of sport fish harvest are needed to estimate consumption. Estimates of freshwater sport fish harvest were developed from a review of 72 articles and reports. Descriptive statistics based on fishing pressure were derived from harvest data for four distinct groups of freshwater sport fish in three water types: streams, lakes, and reservoirs. Regression equations were developed to relate harvestmore » to surface area fished where data bases were sufficiently large. Other aspects of estimating human exposure to contaminants in fish flesh that are discussed include use of bioaccumulation factors for trace metals and organic compounds. Using the bioaccumulation factor and the concentration of contaminants in water as variables in the exposure equation may also lead to less precise estimates of tissue concentration. For instance, muscle levels of contaminants may not increase proportionately with increases in water concentrations, leading to overestimation of risk. In addition, estimates of water concentration may be variable or expressed in a manner that does not truly represent biological availability of the contaminant. These factors are discussed. 45 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs.« less

The linearized multistage model and the future of quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Crump, K S

1996-10-01

The linearized multistage (LMS) model has for over 15 years been the default dose-response model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and other federal and state regulatory agencies in the United States for calculating quantitative estimates of low-dose carcinogenic risks from animal data. The LMS model is in essence a flexible statistical model that can describe both linear and non-linear dose-response patterns, and that produces an upper confidence bound on the linear low-dose slope of the dose-response curve. Unlike its namesake, the Armitage-Doll multistage model, the parameters of the LMS do not correspond to actual physiological phenomena. Thus the LMS is 'biological' only to the extent that the true biological dose response is linear at low dose and that low-dose slope is reflected in the experimental data. If the true dose response is non-linear the LMS upper bound may overestimate the true risk by many orders of magnitude. However, competing low-dose extrapolation models, including those derived from 'biologically-based models' that are capable of incorporating additional biological information, have not shown evidence to date of being able to produce quantitative estimates of low-dose risks that are any more accurate than those obtained from the LMS model. Further, even if these attempts were successful, the extent to which more accurate estimates of low-dose risks in a test animal species would translate into improved estimates of human risk is questionable. Thus, it does not appear possible at present to develop a quantitative approach that would be generally applicable and that would offer significant improvements upon the crude bounding estimates of the type provided by the LMS model. Draft USEPA guidelines for cancer risk assessment incorporate an approach similar to the LMS for carcinogens having a linear mode of action. However, under these guidelines quantitative estimates of low-dose risks would not be developed for carcinogens having a non-linear mode of action; instead dose-response modelling would be used in the experimental range to calculate an LED10* (a statistical lower bound on the dose corresponding to a 10% increase in risk), and safety factors would be applied to the LED10* to determine acceptable exposure levels for humans. This approach is very similar to the one presently used by USEPA for non-carcinogens. Rather than using one approach for carcinogens believed to have a linear mode of action and a different approach for all other health effects, it is suggested herein that it would be more appropriate to use an approach conceptually similar to the 'LED10*-safety factor' approach for all health effects, and not to routinely develop quantitative risk estimates from animal data.

EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL ( ERDEM ) A PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC AND PHARMACODYNAMIC ( PBPK/PD ) MODEL FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE AND RISK

EPA Science Inventory

The Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) is a PBPK/PD modeling system that was developed by EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). The ERDEM framework provides the flexibility either to use existing models and to build new PBPK and PBPK/PD models to address...

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Frequency and patterns of contact with domestic poultry and potential risk of H5N1 transmission to humans living in rural Cambodia

PubMed Central

Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Ly, Sowath; Holl, Davun; Guitian, Javier; Mangtani, Punam; Ghani, Azra C.; Vong, Sirenda

2008-01-01

Background  Since 2004, H5N1 outbreaks have been recurrent in domestic poultry and humans in Cambodia. To date, seven human cases (100% CFR) and 22 outbreaks in poultry have been confirmed. Household ownership of backyard poultry (FAO Sector 4 poultry production) in rural Cambodia is high. An understanding of the extent and frequency of poultry handing behaviors in these settings is necessary to assess the risk associated with different practices and to formulate sensible recommendations to mitigate this risk. We collected new data from six geographic regions to examine patterns of human contact with poultry among rural farmers in Cambodia and identify populations with the highest potential exposure to H5N1. Methods and Findings  A cross‐sectional survey was undertaken in which 3,600 backyard poultry owners from 115 randomly selected villages in six provinces throughout Cambodia were interviewed. Using risk assessment methods, patterns of contact with poultry as surrogate measures of exposure to H5N1 were used to generate risk indices of potential H5N1 transmission to different populations in contact with poultry. Estimates of human exposure risk for each study participant (n = 3600) were obtained by multiplying each reported practice with a transmission risk‐weighting factor and summing these over all practices reported by each individual. Exposure risk estimates were then examined stratified by age and gender. Subjects reported high contact with domestic poultry (chickens and ducks) through the daily care and food preparation practices, however contact patterns varied by gender and age. Males between the ages of 26‐40 reported practices of contact with poultry that give rise to the highest H5N1 transmission risk potential, followed closely by males between the ages of 16‐25. Overall, males had a higher exposure risk potential than females across all age groups (p < 0·001). Conclusions  Our results demonstrate that most of the population in rural Cambodia is in frequent contact with domestic poultry. About half of the population in this study carried out on a regular basis at least one of the practices considered to be high risk for the effective transmission if the bird is infected. There was however substantial variation in the frequency of different practices and thus the potential risk of transmission of H5N1 from poultry to humans is not uniform across age and gender even amongst populations living in close proximity to poultry. PMID:19453420

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

PubMed

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

Chemical and radiological risk factors associated with waste from energy production.

PubMed

Christensen, T; Fuglestvedt, J; Benestad, C; Ehdwall, H; Hansen, H; Mustonen, R; Stranden, E

1992-04-01

We have tried to estimate the toxic potential of waste from nuclear power plants and from power plants burning fossil fuels. The potential risks have been expressed as 'risk potentials' or 'person equivalents.' These are purely theoretical units and represent only an attempt to quantify the potential impact of different sources and substances on human health. Existing concentration limits for effects on human health are used. The philosophy behind establishing limits for several carcinogenic chemicals is based on a linear dose-effect curve. That is, no lower concentration of no effect exists and one has to accept a certain small risk by accepting the concentration limit. This is in line with the establishment of limits for radiation. Waste products from coal combustion have the highest potential risk among the fossil fuel alternatives. The highest risk is caused by metals, and the fly ash represents the effluent stream giving the largest contribution to the potential risk. The waste from nuclear power production has a lower potential risk than coal if today's limit values re used. If one adjusts the limits for radiation dose and the concentration limit values so that a similar risk is accepted by the limits, nuclear waste seems to have a much higher potential risk than waste from fossil fuel. The possibility that such risk estimates may be used as arguments for safe storage of the different types of waste is discussed. In order to obtain the actual risk from the potential risk, the dispersion of the waste in the environment and its uptake and effects in man have to be taken into account.

Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

PubMed

Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Trace elements in animal-based food from Shanghai markets and associated human daily intake and uptake estimation considering bioaccessibility.

PubMed

Lei, Bingli; Chen, Liang; Hao, Ying; Cao, Tiehua; Zhang, Xinyu; Yu, Yingxin; Fu, Jiamo

2013-10-01

The concentrations of four human essential trace elements [iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), chromium (Cr)] and non-essential elements [cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), arsenic (As), and mercury (Hg)] in eighteen animal-based foods including meat, fish, and shellfish collected from markets in Shanghai, China, were analyzed, and the associated human daily intake and uptake considering bioaccessibility were estimated. The mean concentration ranges for eight trace elements measured in the foods were 3.98-131µgg(-1) for Fe, 0.437-18.5µgg(-1) for Mn, 5.47-53.8µgg(-1) for Zn, none detected-0.101µgg(-1) for Cr, 2.88×10(-4)-2.48×10(-2)µgg(-1) for Cd, 1.18×10(-3)-0.747µgg(-1) for Pb, none detected-0.498µgg(-1) for As, and 8.98×10(-4)-6.52×10(-2)µgg(-1) for Hg. The highest mean concentrations of four human essential elements were all found in shellfish. For all the trace elements, the observed mean concentrations are mostly in agreement with the reported values around the world. The total daily intake of trace elements via ingestion of animal-based food via an average Shanghai resident was estimated as 7371µgd(-1) for the human essential elements and 13.0µgd(-1) for the human non-essential elements, but the uptake decreased to 4826µgd(-1) and 6.90µgd(-1), respectively, after trace element bioaccessibility was considered. Livestock and fish for human essential and non-essential elements, respectively, were the main contributor, no matter whether the bioaccessibility was considered or not. Risk estimations showed that the intake and uptake of a signal trace element for an average Shanghai resident via ingestion animal-based foods from Shanghai markets do not exceed the recommended dietary allowance values; consequently, a health risk situation is not indicated. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Screening level risk assessment model for chemical fate and effects in the environment.

PubMed

Arnot, Jon A; Mackay, Don; Webster, Eva; Southwood, Jeanette M

2006-04-01

A screening level risk assessment model is developed and described to assess and prioritize chemicals by estimating environmental fate and transport, bioaccumulation, and exposure to humans and wildlife for a unit emission rate. The most sensitive risk endpoint is identified and a critical emission rate is then calculated as a result of that endpoint being reached. Finally, this estimated critical emission rate is compared with the estimated actual emission rate as a risk assessment factor. This "back-tracking" process avoids the use of highly uncertain emission rate data as model input. The application of the model is demonstrated in detail for three diverse chemicals and in less detail for a group of 70 chemicals drawn from the Canadian Domestic Substances List. The simple Level II and the more complex Level III fate calculations are used to "bin" substances into categories of similar probable risk. The essential role of the model is to synthesize information on chemical and environmental properties within a consistent mass balance framework to yield an overall estimate of screening level risk with respect to the defined endpoint. The approach may be useful to identify and prioritize those chemicals of commerce that are of greatest potential concern and require more comprehensive modeling and monitoring evaluations in actual regional environments and food webs.

The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

PubMed

Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

2015-03-15

Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While these differences are small compared to uncertainties in health risk assessment more generally, the ranks of different regions and of emissions categories as the focus of regulatory efforts estimated at these four levels of spatial resolution are quite different. The results suggest that issues of risk equity within a nation might be missed by the lower levels of spatial resolution, suggesting that low resolution models are suited to calculating national cost-benefit ratios but not as suited to assessing co-benefits of climate policies reflecting intersubject variability in risk, or in identifying sub-national regions and emissions sectors on which to focus attention (although even here, the errors introduced by low spatial resolution are generally less than 40%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological studies on radiation carcinogenesis in human populations following acute exposure: nuclear explosions and medical radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1981-05-01

The current knowledge of the carcinogenic effect of radiation in man is considered. The discussion is restricted to dose-incidence data in humans, particularly to certain of those epidemiological studies of human populations that are used most frequently for risk estimation for low-dose radiation carcinogenesis in man. Emphasis is placed solely on those surveys concerned with nuclear explosions and medical exposures. (ACR)

A Strategy for Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Family Risk Factors on High School Dropout

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randolph, Karen A.; Fraser, Mark W.; Orthner, Dennis K.

2006-01-01

Human behavior is dynamic, influenced by changing situations over time. Yet the impact of the dynamic nature of important explanatory variables on outcomes has only recently begun to be estimated in developmental models. Using a risk factor perspective, this article demonstrates the potential benefits of regressing time-varying outcome measures on…

Health-based ingestion exposure guidelines for Vibrio cholerae: Technical basis for water reuse applications.

PubMed

Watson, Annetta P; Armstrong, Anthony Q; White, George H; Thran, Brandolyn H

2018-02-01

U.S. military and allied contingency operations are increasingly occurring in locations with limited, unstable or compromised fresh water supplies. Non-potable graywater reuse is currently under assessment as a viable means to increase mission sustainability while significantly reducing the resources, logistics and attack vulnerabilities posed by transport of fresh water. Development of health-based (non-potable) exposure guidelines for the potential microbial components of graywater would provide a logical and consistent human-health basis for water reuse strategies. Such health-based strategies will support not only improved water security for contingency operations, but also sustainable military operations. Dose-response assessment of Vibrio cholerae based on adult human oral exposure data were coupled with operational water exposure scenario parameters common to numerous military activities, and then used to derive health risk-based water concentrations. The microbial risk assessment approach utilized oral human exposure V. cholerae dose studies in open literature. Selected studies focused on gastrointestinal illness associated with experimental infection by specific V. cholerae serogroups most often associated with epidemics and pandemics (O1 and O139). Nonlinear dose-response model analyses estimated V. cholerae effective doses (EDs) aligned with gastrointestinal illness severity categories characterized by diarrheal purge volume. The EDs and water exposure assumptions were used to derive Risk-Based Water Concentrations (CFU/100mL) for mission-critical illness severity levels over a range of water use activities common to military operations. Human dose-response studies, data and analyses indicate that ingestion exposures at the estimated ED 1 (50CFU) are unlikely to be associated with diarrheal illness while ingestion exposures at the lower limit (200CFU) of the estimated ED 10 are not expected to result in a level of diarrheal illness associated with degraded individual capability. The current analysis indicates that the estimated ED 20 (approximately 1000CFU) represents initiation of a more advanced stage of diarrheal illness associated with clinical care. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of risk of cancers before occurrence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus.

PubMed

Li, Yueming; Law, Matthew; McDonald, Ann; Correll, Patty; Kaldor, John M; Grulich, Andrew E

2002-01-15

There is methodological debate as to whether cohorts defined by acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnosis can be used to estimate risks of cancer in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before AIDS. The authors compared risks of non-AIDS-defining cancers before AIDS in persons with HIV using a cohort based on AIDS diagnosis and a second cohort based on HIV diagnosis. National population-based registries of AIDS and HIV diagnoses to August 1999 were matched separately with the National Cancer Registry in Australia. Four analyses were performed. In analysis 1, follow-up was from 5 years before AIDS registration in 8,118 persons with AIDS. Analysis 2 was similar but adjusted expected numbers of cancers for decreased survival. Analysis 3 was based on 7,061 persons registered with HIV, with follow-up from the reported date of diagnosis. Analysis 4 was based on 2,112 AIDS cases previously reported with HIV, with follow-up from 5 years before AIDS diagnosis. In all analyses, follow-up ended at cancer diagnosis, death, 6 months before AIDS, or the end of available cancer data, whichever occurred first. For 10 types of cancer there were at least three cases in any one of the analyses. For these cancers there was no systematic pattern such that one analysis produced consistently higher or lower estimates than the others. These analyses suggest that cancer risk in persons with HIV before AIDS diagnosis may be estimated reliably based on cancer experience 5 years before AIDS.

Feeding Patterns of Potential West Nile Virus Vectors in South-West Spain

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Joaquín; Ruiz, Santiago; Soriguer, Ramón; Alcaide, Miguel; Viana, Duarte S.; Roiz, David; Vázquez, Ana; Figuerola, Jordi

2012-01-01

Background Mosquito feeding behaviour determines the degree of vector–host contact and may have a serious impact on the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) epidemics. Feeding behaviour also interacts with other biotic and abiotic factors that affect virus amplification and transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings We identified the origin of blood meals in five mosquito species from three different wetlands in SW Spain. All mosquito species analysed fed with different frequencies on birds, mammals and reptiles. Both ‘mosquito species’ and ‘locality’ explained a similar amount of variance in the occurrence of avian blood meals. However, ‘season of year’ was the main factor explaining the presence of human blood meals. The differences in diet resulted in a marked spatial heterogeneity in the estimated WNV transmission risk. Culex perexiguus, Cx. modestus and Cx. pipiens were the main mosquito species involved in WNV enzootic circulation since they feed mainly on birds, were abundant in a number of localities and had high vector competence. Cx. perexiguus may also be important for WNV transmission to horses, as are Cx. pipiens and Cx. theileri in transmission to humans. Estimates of the WNV transmission risk based on mosquito diet, abundance and vector competence matched the results of previous WNV monitoring programs in the area. Our sensitivity analyses suggested that mosquito diet, followed by mosquito abundance and vector competence, are all relevant factors in understanding virus amplification and transmission risk in the studied wild ecosystems. At some of the studied localities, the risk of enzootic circulation of WNV was relatively high, even if the risk of transmission to humans and horses was less. Conclusions/Significance Our results describe for first time the role of five WNV candidate vectors in SW Spain. Interspecific and local differences in mosquito diet composition has an important effect on the potential transmission risk of WNV to birds, horses and humans. PMID:22745781

Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2016-07-01

In this paper, an integrated methodology for the analysis of pedestrian behaviour and exposure is proposed, allowing to identify and quantify the effect of pedestrian behaviour, road and traffic characteristics on pedestrian risk exposure, for each pedestrian and for populations of pedestrians. The paper builds on existing research on pedestrian exposure, namely the Routledge microscopic indicator, proposes adjustments to take into account road, traffic and human factors and extends the use of this indicator on area-wide level. Moreover, this paper uses integrated choice and latent variables (ICLV) models of pedestrian behaviour, taking into account road, traffic and human factors. Finally, a methodology is proposed for the integrated estimation of pedestrian behaviour and exposure on the basis of road, traffic and human factors. The method is tested with data from a field survey in Athens, Greece, which used pedestrian behaviour observations as well as a questionnaire on human factors of pedestrian behaviour. The data were used (i) to develop ICLV models of pedestrian behaviour and (ii) to estimate the behaviour and exposure of pedestrians for different road, traffic and behavioural scenarios. The results suggest that both pedestrian behaviour and exposure are largely defined by a small number of factors: road type, traffic volume and pedestrian risk-taking. The probability for risk-taking behaviour and the related exposure decrease in less demanding road and traffic environments. A synthesis of the results allows to enhance the understanding of the interactions between behaviour and exposure of pedestrians and to identify conditions of increased risk exposure. These conditions include principal urban arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is low but the related exposure is very high) and minor arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is more frequent, and the related exposure is still high). A "paradox" of increased risk-taking behaviour of pedestrians with low exposure is found, suggesting that these pedestrians may partly compensate in moderate traffic conditions due to their increased walking speed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human urine and plasma concentrations of bisphenol A extrapolated from pharmacokinetics established in in vivo experiments with chimeric mice with humanized liver and semi-physiological pharmacokinetic modeling.

PubMed

Miyaguchi, Takamori; Suemizu, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Makiko; Shida, Satomi; Nishiyama, Sayako; Takano, Ryohji; Murayama, Norie; Yamazaki, Hiroshi

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to extrapolate to humans the pharmacokinetics of estrogen analog bisphenol A determined in chimeric mice transplanted with human hepatocytes. Higher plasma concentrations and urinary excretions of bisphenol A glucuronide (a primary metabolite of bisphenol A) were observed in chimeric mice than in control mice after oral administrations, presumably because of enterohepatic circulation of bisphenol A glucuronide in control mice. Bisphenol A glucuronidation was faster in mouse liver microsomes than in human liver microsomes. These findings suggest a predominantly urinary excretion route of bisphenol A glucuronide in chimeric mice with humanized liver. Reported human plasma and urine data for bisphenol A glucuronide after single oral administration of 0.1mg/kg bisphenol A were reasonably estimated using the current semi-physiological pharmacokinetic model extrapolated from humanized mice data using algometric scaling. The reported geometric mean urinary bisphenol A concentration in the U.S. population of 2.64μg/L underwent reverse dosimetry modeling with the current human semi-physiological pharmacokinetic model. This yielded an estimated exposure of 0.024μg/kg/day, which was less than the daily tolerable intake of bisphenol A (50μg/kg/day), implying little risk to humans. Semi-physiological pharmacokinetic modeling will likely prove useful for determining the species-dependent toxicological risk of bisphenol A. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative cancer risks of chemical contaminants in the great lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bro, Kenneth M.; Sonzogni, William C.; Hanson, Mark E.

1987-08-01

Anyone who drinks water or eats fish from the Great Lakes consumes potentially carcinogenic chemicals. In choosing how to respond to such pollution, it is important to put the risks these contaminants pose in perspective. Based on recent measurements of carcinogens in Great Lakes fish and water, calculations of lifetime risks of cancer indicate that consumers of sport fish face cancer risks from Great Lakes contaminants that are several orders of magnitude higher than the risks posed by drinking Great Lakes water. But drinking urban groundwater and breathing urban air may be as hazardous as frequent consumption of sport fish from the Great Lakes. Making such comparisons is difficult because of variation in types and quality of information available and in the methods for estimating risk. Much uncertainty pervades the risk assessment process in such areas as estimating carcinogenic potency and human exposure to contaminants. If risk assessment is to be made more useful, it is important to quantify this uncertainty.

Integrating Phylodynamics and Epidemiology to Estimate Transmission Diversity in Viral Epidemics

PubMed Central

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Sypsa, Vana; Magiorkinis, Emmanouil; Paraskevis, Dimitrios; Katsoulidou, Antigoni; Belshaw, Robert; Fraser, Christophe; Pybus, Oliver George; Hatzakis, Angelos

2013-01-01

The epidemiology of chronic viral infections, such as those caused by Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), is affected by the risk group structure of the infected population. Risk groups are defined by each of their members having acquired infection through a specific behavior. However, risk group definitions say little about the transmission potential of each infected individual. Variation in the number of secondary infections is extremely difficult to estimate for HCV and HIV but crucial in the design of efficient control interventions. Here we describe a novel method that combines epidemiological and population genetic approaches to estimate the variation in transmissibility of rapidly-evolving viral epidemics. We evaluate this method using a nationwide HCV epidemic and for the first time co-estimate viral generation times and superspreading events from a combination of molecular and epidemiological data. We anticipate that this integrated approach will form the basis of powerful tools for describing the transmission dynamics of chronic viral diseases, and for evaluating control strategies directed against them. PMID:23382662

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

2002-01-01

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Evaluation of Biomonitoring Data from the CDC National ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BACKGROUND: Biomonitoring data reported in the National Report on Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals (NER) provide information on the presence and concentrations of more than 400 chemicals in human blood and urine. Biomonitoring Equivalents (BEs) and other risk assessment-based values now allow interpretation of these biomonitoring data in a public health risk context. OBJECTIVES: Compare the measured biomarker concentrations in the NER with BEs and similar risk assessment values to provide an across-chemical risk assessment perspective on the measured levels for approximately 130 analytes in the NER. METHODS: Available risk assessment-based biomarker screening values, including BEs and Human Biomonitoring-I (HBM-I) values from the German Human Biomonitoring Commission, were identified. Geometric mean and 95th percentile population biomarker concentrations from the NER were compared to the available screening values to generate chemical-specific hazard quotients (HQ) or cancer risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Several analytes in the NER approach or exceed HQ values of 1 or cancer risks greater than 1x 10-4 at the geometric mean or 95th percentile, suggesting exposure levels exceed what is considered safe in a large fraction of the population. Analytes of concern include acrylamide, dioxin-like chemicals, benzene, xylene, several metals, di-2(ethylhexyl)phthalate, and some legacy organochlorine pesticides. This analysis provides for the first time a mean

Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. XIII. Summary and synthesis of papers VI to XII and estimates of genetic risks in the year 2000.

PubMed

Sankaranarayanan, K; Chakraborty, R

2000-10-16

This paper recapitulates the advances in the field of genetic risk estimation that have occurred during the past decade and using them as a basis, presents revised estimates of genetic risks of exposure to radiation. The advances include: (i) an upward revision of the estimates of incidence for Mendelian diseases (2.4% now versus 1.25% in 1993); (ii) the introduction of a conceptual change for calculating doubling doses; (iii) the elaboration of methods to estimate the mutation component (i.e. the relative increase in disease frequency per unit relative increase in mutation rate) and the use of the estimates obtained through these methods for assessing the impact of induced mutations on the incidence of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases; (iv) the introduction of an additional factor called the "potential recoverability correction factor" in the risk equation to bridge the gap between radiation-induced mutations that have been recovered in mice and the risk of radiation-inducible genetic disease in human live births and (v) the introduction of the concept that the adverse effects of radiation-induced genetic damage are likely to be manifest predominantly as multi-system developmental abnormalities in the progeny. For all classes of genetic disease (except congenital abnormalities), the estimates of risk have been obtained using a doubling dose of 1 Gy. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/ low dose irradiation, the current estimates for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750-1500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero and chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250-1200 cases. For congenital abnormalities, the estimate is approximately 2000 cases and is based on mouse data on developmental abnormalities. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3000-4700 cases which represent approximately 0.4-0.6% of the baseline frequency of these diseases (738,000 per million) in the population.

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases.

PubMed

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J

2016-06-21

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human-tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016.This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

3-chloro-4-(dichloromethyl)-5-hydroxy-2(5H)-furanone (MX): toxicological properties and risk assessment in drinking water.

PubMed

Hirose, A; Nishikawa, A; Kinae, N; Hasegawa, R

1999-01-01

MX (3-chloro-4-(dichloromethyl)-5-hydroxy-2(5H)-furanone), one of the byproducts formed during the chlorine disinfection process of drinking water, shows strong mutagenic activity for Salmonella strains in the Ames test. In several countries, the contribution of MX to the total mutagenicity of drinking water is estimated to range from 7% to 67%. To assess the risk of MX for human health, we summarized the toxicological properties of MX and estimated the tolerable daily intake (TDI) or tolerable concentration in drinking water. MX is genotoxic in cultured mammalian cells and causes in vivo DNA damage in several tissues. MX is carcinogenic for rodents in addition to possessing skin and gastric promotion activities. From these toxicological profiles of MX, we estimated the virtual safety dose (VSD) for genotoxic action as 5 ng/kg/d and the TDI for non-genotoxic action of MX as 40 ng/kg/d. We assumed a tolerable MX concentration of 150 ng/L in drinking water. Because of the uncertainty about human genotoxicity, however, and the lack of information on reproductive or developmental toxicity, the estimated tolerable dose level may be provisional.

A review of heavy metals in indoor dust and its human health-risk implications.

PubMed

Tan, Sock Yin; Praveena, Sarva Mangala; Abidin, Emilia Zainal; Cheema, Manraj Singh

2016-12-01

Indoor dust acts as a media for heavy metal deposition. Past studies have shown that heavy metal concentration in indoor dust is affected by local human activities and atmospheric transport can have harmful effects on human health. Additionally, children are more sensitive to heavy metals due to their hand-to-mouth behaviour and rapid body development. However, limited information on health risks were found in past dust studies as these studies aimed to identify heavy metal concentrations and sources of indoor dust. The objective of this review is to discuss heavy metal concentration and sources influencing its concentration in indoor dust. Accordingly, high lead (Pb) concentration (639.10 μg/g) has been reported in heavy traffic areas. In addition, this review paper aims to estimate the health risk to children from heavy metals in indoor dust via multiple exposure pathways using the health-risk assessment (HRA). Urban areas and industrial sites have revealed high heavy metal concentration in comparison to rural areas. Hazard index (HI) values found in arsenic (As), chromium (Cr) and Pb were 21.30, 1.10 and 2.40, respectively, indicate that non-carcinogenic elements are found in children. Furthermore, most of the past studies have found that carcinogenic risks for As, cadmium (Cd), Cr and Pb were below the acceptable total lifetime cancer risk (TLCR) range (1×10-6-1×10-4). The results of health risk assessment in this review show that carcinogenic risk exists among children. Hence, this proves that future studies need to focus on children's carcinogenic risk in indoor dust studies in order to find out the sources of heavy metals in indoor dust. This review highlights the importance of having the HRA application using bioavailable heavy metal concentration as it provides more accurate health-risk estimation. Moreover, this review is also useful as a reference for policy decision making in protecting children's health.

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Diesel exhaust and lung cancer in the trucking industry: exposure-response analyses and risk assessment.

PubMed

Steenland, K; Deddens, J; Stayner, L

1998-09-01

Diesel exhaust is considered a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). The epidemiologic evidence rests on studies of lung cancer among truck drivers, bus drivers, shipyard workers, and railroad workers. The general public is exposed to diesel exhaust in ambient air. Two regulatory agencies are now considering regulating levels of diesel exhaust: the California EPA (ambient levels) and the Mine Safety Health Administration (MSHA) (occupational levels). To date, there have been few quantitative exposure-response analyses of diesel and lung cancer based on human data. We conducted exposure-response analyses among workers in the trucking industry, adjusted for smoking. Diesel exhaust exposure was estimated based on a 1990 industrial hygiene survey. Past exposures were estimated assuming that they were a function of 1) the number of heavy duty trucks on the road, 2) the particulate emissions (grams/mile) of diesel engines over time, and 3) leaks from trucks' exhaust systems for long-haul drivers. Regardless of assumptions about past exposure, all analyses resulted in significant positive trends in lung cancer risk with increasing cumulative exposure. A male truck driver exposed to 5 micrograms/m3 of elemental carbon (a typical exposure in 1990, approximately five times urban background levels) would have a lifetime excess risk of lung cancer of 1-2% above a background risk of 5%. We found a lifetime excess risk ten times higher than the 1 per 1,000 excess risk allowed by OSHA in setting regulations. There are about 2.8 million truck drivers in the U.S. Our results depend on estimates about unknown past exposures, and should be viewed as exploratory. They conform reasonably well to recent estimates for diesel-exposed railroad workers done by the California EPA, although those results themselves have been disputed.

USDA Collaboration with EPA/ORD

EPA Science Inventory

For more than seven years, EPA scientists have been leveraging the USDA Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to reduce uncertainty in our estimates of agricultural emissions, ambient PM concentrations and subsequent human exposure risk. This presentation summariz...

MEASUREMENT ERROR ESTIMATION AND CORRECTION METHODS TO MINIMIZE EXPOSURE MISCLASSIFICATION IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES: PROJECT SUMMARY

EPA Science Inventory

This project summary highlights recent findings from research undertaken to develop improved methods to assess potential human health risks related to drinking water disinfection byproduct (DBP) exposures.

Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedrow, Christine Atkins

The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

Bleeding injuries in professional football: estimating the risk for HIV transmission.

PubMed

Brown, L S; Drotman, D P; Chu, A; Brown, C L; Knowlan, D

1995-02-15

To determine the risk for bleeding injuries in professional football and to estimate the risk for transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) through such injuries. A prospective, observational study. Professional football players from 11 teams of the National Football League were observed during 155 regular season games from September through December 1992. The frequencies of bleeding injuries were calculated in association with environmental and athletic factors. Using this information, HIV prevalence, and data on transmission of HIV in other circumstances, the risk for transmission of HIV during football games was estimated. 575 bleeding injuries (average, 3.7 per game for each team) involving 538 players (average, 3.5 players on each team per game) were observed. Approximately 88% of the bleeding injuries were abrasions; the remainder were lacerations. Bleeding injuries were markedly more frequent during games played on artificial surfaces, during games played in domed stadiums, and on teams with a final win/loss percentage of 0.500 or lower. Using data on the prevalence of HIV among college men and rates of HIV transmission in the health care setting, the risk for HIV transmission to each player was estimated to be less than 1 per 85 million game contacts. Although injuries occur in professional football competitions, bleeding injuries, especially lacerations, occur infrequently. We estimate that the risk for HIV transmission during such competition is extremely remote. The role of artificial playing surfaces on the incidence or severity of bleeding injuries should be investigated.

Using in vitro/in silico data for consumer safety assessment of feed flavoring additives--A feasibility study using piperine.

PubMed

Thiel, A; Etheve, S; Fabian, E; Leeman, W R; Plautz, J R

2015-10-01

Consumer health risk assessment for feed additives is based on the estimated human exposure to the additive that may occur in livestock edible tissues compared to its hazard. We present an approach using alternative methods for consumer health risk assessment. The aim was to use the fewest possible number of animals to estimate its hazard and human exposure without jeopardizing the safety upon use. As an example we selected the feed flavoring substance piperine and applied in silico modeling for residue estimation, results from literature surveys, and Read-Across to assess metabolism in different species. Results were compared to experimental in vitro metabolism data in rat and chicken, and to quantitative analysis of residues' levels from the in vivo situation in livestock. In silico residue modeling showed to be a worst case: the modeled residual levels were considerably higher than the measured residual levels. The in vitro evaluation of livestock versus rodent metabolism revealed no major differences in metabolism between the species. We successfully performed a consumer health risk assessment without performing additional animal experiments. As shown, the use and combination of different alternative methods supports animal welfare consideration and provides future perspective to reducing the number of animals. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health implications of PAH release from coated cast iron drinking water distribution systems in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Blokker, E J Mirjam; van de Ven, Bianca M; de Jongh, Cindy M; Slaats, P G G Nellie

2013-05-01

Coal tar and bitumen have been historically used to coat the insides of cast iron drinking water mains. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may leach from these coatings into the drinking water and form a potential health risk for humans. We estimated the potential human cancer risk from PAHs in coated cast iron water mains. In a Dutch nationwide study, we collected drinking water samples at 120 locations over a period of 17 days under various operational conditions, such as undisturbed operation, during flushing of pipes, and after a mains repair, and analyzed these samples for PAHs. We then estimated the health risk associated with an exposure scenario over a lifetime. During flushing, PAH levels frequently exceeded drinking water quality standards; after flushing, these levels dropped rapidly. After the repair of cast iron water mains, PAH levels exceeded the drinking water standards for up to 40 days in some locations. The estimated margin of exposure for PAH exposure through drinking water was > 10,000 for all 120 measurement locations, which suggests that PAH exposure through drinking water is of low concern for consumer health. However, factors that differ among water systems, such as the use of chlorination for disinfection, may influence PAH levels in other locations.

Health Implications of PAH Release from Coated Cast Iron Drinking Water Distribution Systems in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

van de Ven, Bianca M.; de Jongh, Cindy M.

2013-01-01

Background: Coal tar and bitumen have been historically used to coat the insides of cast iron drinking water mains. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may leach from these coatings into the drinking water and form a potential health risk for humans. Objective: We estimated the potential human cancer risk from PAHs in coated cast iron water mains. Method: In a Dutch nationwide study, we collected drinking water samples at 120 locations over a period of 17 days under various operational conditions, such as undisturbed operation, during flushing of pipes, and after a mains repair, and analyzed these samples for PAHs. We then estimated the health risk associated with an exposure scenario over a lifetime. Results: During flushing, PAH levels frequently exceeded drinking water quality standards; after flushing, these levels dropped rapidly. After the repair of cast iron water mains, PAH levels exceeded the drinking water standards for up to 40 days in some locations. Conclusions: The estimated margin of exposure for PAH exposure through drinking water was > 10,000 for all 120 measurement locations, which suggests that PAH exposure through drinking water is of low concern for consumer health. However, factors that differ among water systems, such as the use of chlorination for disinfection, may influence PAH levels in other locations. PMID:23425894

Public Health Risk Conditioned by Chemical Composition of Ground Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yankovich, E.; Osipova, N.; Yankovich, K.; Matveenko, I.

2016-03-01

The article studies the public health potential risk originated from water consumption and estimated on the basis of the groundwater chemical composition. We have processed the results of chemical groundwater analysis in different aquifers of Tomsk district (Tomsk Oblast, Russia). More than 8400 samples of chemical groundwater analyses were taken during long-term observation period. Human health risk assessment of exposure to contaminants in drinking water was performed in accordance with the risk assessment guidance for public health concerning chemical pollution of the environment (Russian reference number: 2.1.10.1920-04-M, 2004). Identified potential risks were estimated for consuming water of each aquifer. The comparative analysis of water quality of different aquifers was performed on the basis of the risk coefficient of the total non-carcinogenic effects. The non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the Tomsk district population due to groundwater consumption without prior sanitary treatment was admitted acceptable. A rather similar picture is observed for all aquifers, although deeper aquifers show lower hazard coefficients.

Mode of action in relevance of rodent liver tumors to human cancer risk.

PubMed

Holsapple, Michael P; Pitot, Henri C; Cohen, Samuel M; Cohen, Samuel H; Boobis, Alan R; Klaunig, James E; Pastoor, Timothy; Dellarco, Vicki L; Dragan, Yvonne P

2006-01-01

Hazard identification and risk assessment paradigms depend on the presumption of the similarity of rodents to humans, yet species specific responses, and the extrapolation of high-dose effects to low-dose exposures can affect the estimation of human risk from rodent data. As a consequence, a human relevance framework concept was developed by the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) and International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) with the central tenet being the identification of a mode of action (MOA). To perform a MOA analysis, the key biochemical, cellular, and molecular events need to first be established, and the temporal and dose-dependent concordance of each of the key events in the MOA can then be determined. The key events can be used to bridge species and dose for a given MOA. The next step in the MOA analysis is the assessment of biological plausibility for determining the relevance of the specified MOA in an animal model for human cancer risk based on kinetic and dynamic parameters. Using the framework approach, a MOA in animals could not be defined for metal overload. The MOA for phenobarbital (PB)-like P450 inducers was determined to be unlikely in humans after kinetic and dynamic factors were considered. In contrast, after these factors were considered with reference to estrogen, the conclusion was drawn that estrogen-induced tumors were plausible in humans. Finally, it was concluded that the induction of rodent liver tumors by porphyrogenic compounds followed a cytotoxic MOA, and that liver tumors formed as a result of sustained cytotoxicity and regenerative proliferation are considered relevant for evaluating human cancer risk if appropriate metabolism occurs in the animal models and in humans.

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

2003-01-01

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Exposure assessment for trihalomethanes in municipal drinking water and risk reduction strategy.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat

2013-10-01

Lifetime exposure to disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in municipal water may pose risks to human health. Current approaches of exposure assessments use DBPs in cold water during showering, while warming of chlorinated water during showering may increase trihalomethane (THM) formation in the presence of free residual chlorine. Further, DBP exposure through dermal contact during showering is estimated using steady-state condition between the DBPs in shower water impacting on human skin and skin exposed to shower water. The lag times to achieve steady-state condition between DBPs in shower water and human skin can vary in the range of 9.8-391.2 min, while shower duration is often less than the lag times. Assessment of exposure without incorporating these factors might have misinterpreted DBP exposure in some previous studies. In this study, exposure to THMs through ingestion was estimated using cold water THMs, while THM exposure through inhalation and dermal contact during showering was estimated using THMs in warm water. Inhalation of THMs was estimated using THM partition into the shower air, while dermal uptake was estimated by incorporating lag times (e.g., unsteady and steady-state phases of exposure) during showering. Probabilistic approach was followed to incorporate uncertainty in the assessment. Inhalation and dermal contact during showering contributed 25-60% of total exposure. Exposure to THMs during showering can be controlled by varying shower stall volume, shower duration and air exchange rate following power law equations. The findings might be useful in understanding exposure to THMs, which can be extended to other volatile compounds in municipal water. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Risk to Public Health due to Use of Antimicrobials in Pigs—An Example of Pleuromutilins in Denmark

PubMed Central

Alban, Lis; Ellis-Iversen, Johanne; Andreasen, Margit; Dahl, Jan; Sönksen, Ute W.

2017-01-01

Antibiotic consumption in pigs can be optimized by developing treatment guidelines, which encourage veterinarians to use effective drugs with low probability of developing resistance of importance for human health. In Denmark, treatment guidelines for use in swine production are currently under review at the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration. Use of pleuromutilins in swine has previously been associated with a very low risk for human health. However, recent international data and sporadic findings of novel resistance genes suggest a change of risk. Consequently, a reassessment was undertaken inspired by a risk assessment framework developed by the European Medicines Agency. Livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus of clonal complex 398 (MRSA CC398) and enterococci were identified as relevant hazards. The release assessment showed that the probability of development of pleuromutilin resistance was high in MRSA CC398 (medium uncertainty) and low in enterococci (high uncertainty). A relatively small proportion of Danes has an occupational exposure to pigs, and foodborne transmission was only considered of relevance for enterococci, resulting in an altogether low exposure risk. The human consequences of infection with pleuromutilin-resistant MRSA CC398 or enterococci were assessed as low for the public in general but high for vulnerable groups such as hospitalized and immunocompromised persons. For MRSA CC398, the total risk was estimated as low (low uncertainty), among other due to the current guidelines on prevention of MRSA in place at Danish hospitals, which include screening of patients with daily contact to pigs on admittance. Moreover, MRSA CC398 has a medium human–human transmission potential. For enterococci, the total risk was estimated as low due to low prevalence of resistance, low probability of spread to humans, low virulence, but no screening of hospitalized patients, high ability of acquiring resistance genes, and a limited number of alternative antimicrobials (high uncertainty). This assessment reflects the current situation and should be repeated if pleuromutilin consumption increases substantially, resulting in increased prevalence of mobile, easily transmissible resistance mechanisms. Continuous monitoring of pleuromutilin resistance in selected human pathogens should therefore be considered. This also includes monitoring of linezolid resistance, since resistance mechanisms for pleuromutilins and oxazolidones are often coupled. PMID:28603717

Olfactory deposition of inhaled nanoparticles in humans

PubMed Central

Garcia, Guilherme J. M.; Schroeter, Jeffry D.; Kimbell, Julia S.

2016-01-01

Context Inhaled nanoparticles can migrate to the brain via the olfactory bulb, as demonstrated in experiments in several animal species. This route of exposure may be the mechanism behind the correlation between air pollution and human neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Objectives This manuscript aims to (1) estimate the dose of inhaled nanoparticles that deposit in the human olfactory epithelium during nasal breathing at rest and (2) compare the olfactory dose in humans with our earlier dose estimates for rats. Materials and methods An anatomically-accurate model of the human nasal cavity was developed based on computed tomography scans. The deposition of 1–100 nm particles in the whole nasal cavity and its olfactory region were estimated via computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Our CFD methods were validated by comparing our numerical predictions for whole-nose deposition with experimental data and previous CFD studies in the literature. Results In humans, olfactory dose of inhaled nanoparticles is highest for 1–2 nm particles with approximately 1% of inhaled particles depositing in the olfactory region. As particle size grows to 100 nm, olfactory deposition decreases to 0.01% of inhaled particles. Discussion and conclusion Our results suggest that the percentage of inhaled particles that deposit in the olfactory region is lower in humans than in rats. However, olfactory dose per unit surface area is estimated to be higher in humans due to their larger minute volume. These dose estimates are important for risk assessment and dose-response studies investigating the neurotoxicity of inhaled nanoparticles. PMID:26194036

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

PubMed

Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

2016-03-01

In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

Atmospheric occurrence and health risks of PCDD/Fs, polychlorinated biphenyls, and polychlorinated naphthalenes by air inhalation in metallurgical plants.

PubMed

Yang, Lili; Liu, Guorui; Zheng, Minghui; Jin, Rong; Zhu, Qingqing; Zhao, Yuyang; Zhang, Xian; Xu, Yang

2017-02-15

Metallurgical plants are important sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs). It is significant to evaluate the air levels and human risks of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs in metallurgical plants considering their adverse effects on human health and thousands of metallurgical plants being in operation in China. The estimated inhalation intakes of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, and PCNs together in eight iron ore sintering plants, three secondary copper plants, four secondary aluminum plants, and one secondary lead plant were 4.9-213.4, 21.4-4026.4, 28.7-630, and 11.7fgTEQkg -1 day -1 , respectively, and the corresponding cancer risks were estimated to be 8.7×10 -7 to 3.8×10 -5 , 5.1×10 -6 to 1.1×10 -4 , 3.8×10 -6 to 7.1×10 -4 , and 2.1×10 -6 , respectively. The estimated cancer risk were higher than 100 per million people for three secondary aluminum and copper smelters among the sixteen metallurgical plants, indicating high cancer risks. Stack gas samples from metallurgical plants were also collected and analyzed for comparing their emission profiles with that of air samples. The comparison of PCDD/F, PCB and PCN profiles between air samples and stack gas samples by similarity calculation and principal component analysis suggested the influence of stack gas emissions from metallurgical plants on surrounding air. These results are helpful for understanding the exposure risk to PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs in numerous metallurgical plants being operation in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

PubMed

Staples, J Erin; Diallo, Mawlouth; Janusz, Kristen B; Manengu, Casimir; Lewis, Rosamund F; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Sall, Amadou A

2014-10-01

Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of elemental composition in two wild and cultured marine fish and potential risks to human health.

PubMed

Marengo, Michel; Durieux, Eric D H; Ternengo, Sonia; Lejeune, Pierre; Degrange, Elise; Pasqualini, Vanina; Gobert, Sylvie

2018-08-30

Among all available species, fish are a powerful model for risk-benefit assessments to study the effects of contaminants on human health. Gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata, Linnaeus 1758) and european seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Linnaeus 1758) are two species of great economic importance, representing very large production volumes in the Mediterranean. The objective of this study is (1) to analyze the concentrations of Trace Elements (TE) between wild and cultured seabream and seabass specimens, (2) to compare the determined concentrations with other studies, and (3) to increase the data about the potential risks to human health. Our results point to significant intra- and interspecies-specific differences between wild and cultured fish for several trace elements. Several strong and moderate inter-elemental correlations in fish muscle were observed through correlation analysis. In our study, the mean levels of trace elements were still below the standard safety values for fish intended for human consumption. The same results were reached for all the parameters analyzed (international legal limits, estimated weekly intake, provisional tolerable weekly intake, target hazard quotient, target cancer risk), with trace element levels in fish below those that could pose a risk to human health. Consequently, these fish can be considered safe for human consumption. A better understanding of the levels of trace elements in fish would also better inform consumers about the potential risks of exposure to contaminants. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inter-Individual Variability in High-Throughput Risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We incorporate realistic human variability into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of thousands of environmental chemicals, most which have little or no existing TK data. Chemicals are prioritized based on model estimates of hazard and exposure, to decide which chemicals should be first in line for further study. Hazard may be estimated with in vitro HT screening assays, e.g., U.S. EPA’s ToxCast program. Bioactive ToxCast concentrations can be extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse TK approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. Here we draw physiological parameters from realistic estimates of distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities in the modern U.S. population, based on the most recent CDC NHANES data. A Monte Carlo approach, accounting for the correlation structure in physiological parameters, is used to estimate ToxCast equivalent doses for the most sensitive portion of the population. To quantify risk, ToxCast equivalent doses are compared to estimates of exposure rates based on Bayesian inferences drawn from NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion

A COMPARATIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF DERMAL APPENDAGES (HAIR FOLLICLES) ON THE PERCUTANEOUS ABSORPTION OF ORGANOPHOSPHORUS (OP) INSECTICIDES USING QSAR AND PBPK/PD MODELS FOR HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The successful use of the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) for assessment of dermal exposure of humans to OP pesticides requires the input of representative and comparable input parameters. In the specific case of dermal exposure, regional anatomical variation in...

High throughput heuristics for prioritizing human exposure to environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Wambaugh, John F; Wang, Anran; Dionisio, Kathie L; Frame, Alicia; Egeghy, Peter; Judson, Richard; Setzer, R Woodrow

2014-11-04

The risk posed to human health by any of the thousands of untested anthropogenic chemicals in our environment is a function of both the hazard presented by the chemical and the extent of exposure. However, many chemicals lack estimates of exposure intake, limiting the understanding of health risks. We aim to develop a rapid heuristic method to determine potential human exposure to chemicals for application to the thousands of chemicals with little or no exposure data. We used Bayesian methodology to infer ranges of exposure consistent with biomarkers identified in urine samples from the U.S. population by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We performed linear regression on inferred exposure for demographic subsets of NHANES demarked by age, gender, and weight using chemical descriptors and use information from multiple databases and structure-based calculators. Five descriptors are capable of explaining roughly 50% of the variability in geometric means across 106 NHANES chemicals for all the demographic groups, including children aged 6-11. We use these descriptors to estimate human exposure to 7968 chemicals, the majority of which have no other quantitative exposure prediction. For thousands of chemicals with no other information, this approach allows forecasting of average exposure intake of environmental chemicals.

High-Throughput Models for Exposure-Based Chemical ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) must characterize potential risks to human health and the environment associated with manufacture and use of thousands of chemicals. High-throughput screening (HTS) for biological activity allows the ToxCast research program to prioritize chemical inventories for potential hazard. Similar capabilities for estimating exposure potential would support rapid risk-based prioritization for chemicals with limited information; here, we propose a framework for high-throughput exposure assessment. To demonstrate application, an analysis was conducted that predicts human exposure potential for chemicals and estimates uncertainty in these predictions by comparison to biomonitoring data. We evaluated 1936 chemicals using far-field mass balance human exposure models (USEtox and RAIDAR) and an indicator for indoor and/or consumer use. These predictions were compared to exposures inferred by Bayesian analysis from urine concentrations for 82 chemicals reported in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Joint regression on all factors provided a calibrated consensus prediction, the variance of which serves as an empirical determination of uncertainty for prioritization on absolute exposure potential. Information on use was found to be most predictive; generally, chemicals above the limit of detection in NHANES had consumer/indoor use. Coupled with hazard HTS, exposure HTS can place risk earlie

Furan in heat-treated foods: formation, exposure, toxicity, and aspects of risk assessment.

PubMed

Moro, Sabrina; Chipman, James Kevin; Wegener, Jan-Willem; Hamberger, Carolin; Dekant, Wolfgang; Mally, Angela

2012-08-01

Furan is formed in a variety of heat-treated foods through thermal degradation of natural food constituents. Relatively high levels of furan contamination are found in ground roasted coffee, instant coffee, and processed baby foods. European exposure estimates suggest that mean dietary exposure to furan may be as high as 1.23 and 1.01 μg/kg bw/day for adults and 3- to 12-month-old infants, respectively. Furan is a potent hepatotoxin and hepatocarcinogen in rodents, causing hepatocellular adenomas and carcinomas in rats and mice, and high incidences of cholangiocarcinomas in rats at doses ≥ 2 mg/kg bw. There is therefore a relatively low margin of exposure between estimated human exposure and doses that cause a high tumor incidence in rodents. Since a genotoxic mode of action cannot be excluded for furan-induced tumor formation, the present exposures may indicate a risk to human health and need for mitigation. This review summarizes the current knowledge on mechanisms of furan formation in food, human dietary exposure to furan, and furan toxicity, and highlights the need to establish the risk resulting from the genotoxic and carcinogenic properties of furan at doses lower than 2 mg/kg bw. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Income Elasticity Literature Review | Science Inventory | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Following advice from the SAB Council, when estimating the economic value of reductions in air pollution-related mortality and morbidity risk, EPA accounts for the effect of personal income on the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes. These income growth adjustment factors are calculated using a combination of income elasticity estimates and income growth projections, both of which have remained essentially unchanged since 1999. These income elasticity estimates vary according to the severity of illness. EPA recently received advice from the SAB regarding the range of income elasticities to apply as well as the research standards to use when selecting income elasticity estimates. Following this advice, EPA consulted with a contractor to update its income elasticity and income growth projections, and generate new income growth adjustment factors. The SAB would evaluate the income elasticity estimates identified in the EPA-provided literature review, determining the extent to which these estimates are appropriate to use in human health benefits assessments.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

Critical Evaluation of the Linkage Between Tick-Based Risk Measures and the Occurrence of Lyme Disease Cases

PubMed Central

Eisen, Lars; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2018-01-01

The nymphal stage of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is considered the primary vector to humans in the eastern United States of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. The abundance of infected host-seeking nymphs is commonly used to estimate the fundamental risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, for the purpose of environmental risk assessment and as an outcome measure when evaluating environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods. However, as this tick-based risk measure does not consider the likelihoods of either human encounters with infected ticks or tick bites resulting in pathogen transmission, its linkage to the occurrence of Lyme disease cases is worth evaluating. In this Forum article, we describe different tick-based risk measures, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and review the evidence for their capacity to predict the occurrence of Lyme disease cases. We conclude that: 1) the linkage between abundance of host-seeking B. burgdorferi-infected nymphs and Lyme disease occurrence is strong at community or county scales but weak at the fine spatial scale of residential properties where most human exposures to infected nymphs occur in Northeast, 2) the combined use of risk measures based on infected nymphs collected from the environment and ticks collected from humans is preferable to either one of these risk measures used singly when assessing the efficacy of environmentally based tick or pathogen control methods aiming to reduce the risk of human exposure to B. burgdorferi, 3) there is a need for improved risk assessment methodology for residential properties that accounts for both the abundance of infected nymphs and the likelihood of human–tick contact, and 4) we need to better understand how specific human activities conducted in defined residential microhabitats relate to risk for nymphal exposures and bites. PMID:27330093

A review of mercury in Lake Victoria, East Africa: implications for human and ecosystem health.

PubMed

Campbell, Linda; Dixon, D G; Hecky, R E

2003-01-01

Lake Victoria, East Africa, has been the site of many recent studies measuring mercury (Hg) concentrations in water, fish, sediment, soil, and humans. Most of these studies were motivated by concerns about Hg contamination from processing of gold ore on the southern shores. Total Hg (THg) concentrations in fish were usually below permissible World Health Organization (WHO) concentrations and international marketing limits and do not threaten the lucrative export industry. Nile perch 3-10 kg and most >10 kg had THg concentrations above the WHO threshold concentrations for at-risk groups (200 ng/g). Elevated THg concentrations in large Nile perch are not of major concern because Nile perch are rarely consumed by the people living on Lake Victoria and very large Nile perch are becoming increasingly rare in catches. Water THg concentrations were below Canadian drinking water guidelines but were elevated relative to those in the northern Great Lakes. Sediment and soil THg concentrations were within inter-national guidelines and are comparable to those in northern latitudes but are lower than those in the Amazon basin. Biomass burning and soil erosion are estimated to be the major sources of THg for the lake and probably constitute a larger source of THg than gold mining in Tanzania.THg concentrations in urine and hair from human volunteers indicate that while gold miners and frequent skin-bleaching cream users are at risk of inorganic mercury poisoning, the rest of the population, including fishermen, is not. Human exposure assessments demonstrated that fish consumption and soil geophagy constitute major sources of THg for humans, but the total estimated daily intake of THg was below the Health Canada tolerable daily intake (TDI) limits. The use of beauty creams containing high inorganic Hg concentrations, however, caused the estimated THg exposure to exceed the TDI. The high THg content in the hair of regular cream users supports this assessment. The nutritional benefits of fish and soil geophagy outweigh the risk of THg poisoning. Still, due to the importance of those natural items as a THg source to humans, as well as the changing nature of Lake Victoria, regular monitoring and risk assessments need to be carried out in the Lake Victoria catchment.

Serious fungal infections in Pakistan.

PubMed

Jabeen, K; Farooqi, J; Mirza, S; Denning, D; Zafar, A

2017-06-01

The true burden of fungal infection in Pakistan is unknown. High-risk populations for fungal infections [tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, asthma, cancer, transplant and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection] are numerous. Here, we estimate the burden of fungal infections to highlight their public health significance. Whole and at-risk population estimates were obtained from the WHO (TB), BREATHE study (COPD), UNAIDS (HIV), GLOBOCAN (cancer) and Heartfile (diabetes). Published data from Pakistan reporting fungal infections rates in general and specific populations were reviewed and used when applicable. Estimates were made for the whole population or specific populations at risk, as previously described in the LIFE methodology. Of the 184,500,000 people in Pakistan, an estimated 3,280,549 (1.78%) are affected by a serious fungal infection, omitting all cutaneous infection, oral candidiasis and allergic fungal sinusitis, which we could not estimate. Compared with other countries, the rates of candidaemia (21/100,000) and mucormycosis (14/100,000) are estimated to be very high, and are based on data from India. Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis rates are estimated to be high (39/100,000) because of the high TB burden. Invasive aspergillosis was estimated to be around 5.9/100,000. Fungal keratitis is also problematic in Pakistan, with an estimated rate of 44/100,000. Pakistan probably has a high rate of certain life- or sight-threatening fungal infections.

The concept of comparative information yield curves and its application to risk-based site characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Rubin, Yoram; Maxwell, Reed M.

2009-06-01

Defining rational and effective hydrogeological data acquisition strategies is of crucial importance as such efforts are always resource limited. Usually, strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on uncertainty. This paper presents an approach for determining site characterization needs on the basis of human health risk. The main challenge is in striking a balance between reduction in uncertainty in hydrogeological, behavioral, and physiological parameters. Striking this balance can provide clear guidance on setting priorities for data acquisition and for better estimating adverse health effects in humans. This paper addresses this challenge through theoretical developments and numerical simulation. A wide range of factors that affect site characterization needs are investigated, including the dimensions of the contaminant plume and additional length scales that characterize the transport problem, as well as the model of human health risk. The concept of comparative information yield curves is used for investigating the relative impact of hydrogeological and physiological parameters in risk. Results show that characterization needs are dependent on the ratios between flow and transport scales within a risk-driven approach. Additionally, the results indicate that human health risk becomes less sensitive to hydrogeological measurements for large plumes. This indicates that under near-ergodic conditions, uncertainty reduction in human health risk may benefit from better understanding of the physiological component as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization.

Catchment scale assessment of risk posed by traffic generated heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; McGree, James; Liu, An; Deilami, Kaveh; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-10-01

Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants present in urban stormwater. Consequently, urban stormwater reuse is constrained due to the human health risk posed by these pollutants. This study developed a scientifically robust approach to assess the risk to human health posed by HMs and PAHs in urban stormwater in order to enhance its reuse. Accordingly, an innovative methodology was created consisting of four stages: quantification of traffic and land use parameters; estimation of pollutant concentrations for model development; risk assessment, and risk map presentation. This methodology will contribute to catchment scale assessment of the risk associated with urban stormwater and for risk mitigation. The risk map developed provides a simple and efficient approach to identify the critical areas within a large catchment. The study also found that heavy molecular weight PAHs (PAHs with 5-6 benzene rings) in urban stormwater pose higher risk to human health compared to light molecular PAHs (PAHs with 2-4 benzene rings). These outcomes will facilitate the development of practical approaches for applying appropriate mitigation measures for the safe management of urban stormwater pollution and for the identification of enhanced reuse opportunities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

Assessing Human Health Risk to Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals: a Focus on Prenatal Exposures and Oxidative Stress

PubMed Central

Neier, Kari; Marchlewicz, Elizabeth H.; Dolinoy, Dana C.; Padmanabhan, Vasantha

2016-01-01

Understanding the health risk posed by endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is a challenge that is receiving intense attention. The following study criteria should be considered to facilitate risk assessment for exposure to EDCs: 1) characterization of target health outcomes and their mediators, 2) study of exposures in the context of critical periods of development, 3) accurate estimates of human exposures and use of human-relevant exposures in animal studies, and 4) cross-species comparisons. In this commentary, we discuss the importance and relevance of each of these criteria in studying the effects of prenatal exposure to EDCs. Our discussion focuses on oxidative stress as a mediator of EDC-related health effects due to its association with both EDC exposure and health outcomes. Our recent study (Veiga-Lopez et al. 2015)1 addressed each of the four outlined criteria and demonstrated that prenatal bisphenol-A exposure is associated with oxidative stress, a risk factor for developing diabetes and cardiovascular diseases in adulthood. PMID:27231701

A Review of Mercury Bioavailability in Humans and Fish.

PubMed

Bradley, Mark A; Barst, Benjamin D; Basu, Niladri

2017-02-10

To estimate human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), risk assessors often assume 95%-100% bioavailability in their models. However, recent research suggests that assuming all, or most, of the ingested mercury (Hg) is absorbed into systemic circulation may be erroneous. The objective of this paper is to review and discuss the available state of knowledge concerning the assimilation or bioavailability of Hg in fish and humans. In fish, this meant reviewing studies on assimilation efficiency, that is the difference between ingested and excreted Hg over a given period of time. In humans, this meant reviewing studies that mostly investigated bioaccessibility (digestive processes) rather than bioavailability (cumulative digestive + absorptive processes), although studies incorporating absorption for a fuller picture of bioavailability were also included where possible. The outcome of this review shows that in a variety of organisms and experimental models that Hg bioavailability and assimilation is less than 100%. Specifically, 25 studies on fish were reviewed, and assimilation efficiencies ranged from 10% to 100% for MeHg and from 2% to 51% for Hg(II). For humans, 20 studies were reviewed with bioaccessibility estimates ranging from 2% to 100% for MeHg and 0.2% to 94% for Hg(II). The overall absorption estimates ranged from 12% to 79% for MeHg and 49% to 69% for Hg(II), and were consistently less than 100%. For both fish and humans, a number of cases are discussed in which factors (e.g., Hg source, cooking methods, nutrients) are shown to affect Hg bioavailability. The summaries presented here challenge a widely-held assumption in the Hg risk assessment field, and the paper discusses possible ways forward for the field.

A Review of Mercury Bioavailability in Humans and Fish

PubMed Central

Bradley, Mark A.; Barst, Benjamin D.; Basu, Niladri

2017-01-01

To estimate human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), risk assessors often assume 95%–100% bioavailability in their models. However, recent research suggests that assuming all, or most, of the ingested mercury (Hg) is absorbed into systemic circulation may be erroneous. The objective of this paper is to review and discuss the available state of knowledge concerning the assimilation or bioavailability of Hg in fish and humans. In fish, this meant reviewing studies on assimilation efficiency, that is the difference between ingested and excreted Hg over a given period of time. In humans, this meant reviewing studies that mostly investigated bioaccessibility (digestive processes) rather than bioavailability (cumulative digestive + absorptive processes), although studies incorporating absorption for a fuller picture of bioavailability were also included where possible. The outcome of this review shows that in a variety of organisms and experimental models that Hg bioavailability and assimilation is less than 100%. Specifically, 25 studies on fish were reviewed, and assimilation efficiencies ranged from 10% to 100% for MeHg and from 2% to 51% for Hg(II). For humans, 20 studies were reviewed with bioaccessibility estimates ranging from 2% to 100% for MeHg and 0.2% to 94% for Hg(II). The overall absorption estimates ranged from 12% to 79% for MeHg and 49% to 69% for Hg(II), and were consistently less than 100%. For both fish and humans, a number of cases are discussed in which factors (e.g., Hg source, cooking methods, nutrients) are shown to affect Hg bioavailability. The summaries presented here challenge a widely-held assumption in the Hg risk assessment field, and the paper discusses possible ways forward for the field. PMID:28208586

Estimation of risks by chemicals produced during laser pyrolysis of tissues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Lothar W.; Spleiss, Martin

1995-01-01

Use of laser systems in minimal invasive surgery results in formation of laser aerosol with volatile organic compounds of possible health risk. By use of currently identified chemical substances an overview on possibly associated risks to human health is given. The class of the different identified alkylnitriles seem to be a laser specific toxicological problem. Other groups of chemicals belong to the Maillard reaction type, the fatty acid pyrolysis type, or even the thermally activated chemolysis. In relation to the available different threshold limit values the possible exposure ranges of identified substances are discussed. A rough estimation results in an exposure range of less than 1/100 for almost all substances with given human threshold limit values without regard of possible interactions. For most identified alkylnitriles, alkenes, and heterocycles no threshold limit values are given for lack of, until now, practical purposes. Pyrolysis of anaesthetized organs with isoflurane gave no hints for additional pyrolysis products by fragment interactions with resulting VOCs. Measurements of pyrolysis gases resulted in detection of small amounts of NO additionally with NO2 formation at plasma status.

Dog ownership, abundance and potential for bat-borne rabies spillover in Chile.

PubMed

Astorga, F; Escobar, L E; Poo-Muñoz, D A; Medina-Vogel, G

2015-03-01

Rabies is a viral infectious disease that affects all mammals, including humans. Factors associated with the incidence of rabies include the presence and density of susceptible hosts and potential reservoirs. Currently, Chile is declared free of canine-related rabies, but there is an overpopulation of dogs within the country and an emergence of rabies in bats. Our objectives are to determine potential areas for bat-borne rabies spillover into dog populations expressed as a risk map, and to explore some key features of dog ownership, abundance, and management in Chile. For the risk map, our variables included a dog density surface (dog/km(2)) and a distribution model of bat-borne rabies presence. From literature review, we obtained dog data from 112 municipalities, which represent 33% of the total municipalities (339). At country level, based on previous studies the median human per dog ratio was 4.8, with 64% of houses containing at least one dog, and a median of 0.9 dog per house. We estimate a national median of 5.3 dog/km(2), and a median of 3680 dogs by municipality, from which we estimate a total population of 3.5×10(6) owned dogs. The antirabies vaccination presented a median of 21% of dogs by municipality, and 29% are unrestricted to some degree. Human per dog ratio have a significant (but weak) negative association with human density. Unrestricted dogs have a negative association with human density and income, and a positive association with the number of dogs per house. Considering dog density by municipality, and areas of potential bat-borne rabies occurrence, we found that 163 (∼48%) of Chilean municipalities are at risk of rabies spillover from bats to dogs. Risk areas are concentrated in urban settlements, including Santiago, Chile's capital. To validate the risk map, we included cases of rabies in dogs from the last 27 years; all fell within high-risk areas of our map, confirming the assertive risk prediction. Our results suggest that the use of dog population parameters may be informative to determine risk areas for bat-rabies spillover events. In addition, we confirm that dog abundance is a neglected and emerging public health concern in Chile, particularly within urban areas, which deserves prompt intervention. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An Integrated Probabilistic-Fuzzy Assessment of Uncertainty Associated with Human Health Risk to MSW Landfill Leachate Contamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, H.; Karmakar, S.; Kumar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment will not remain simple when it involves multiple uncertain variables. Uncertainties in risk assessment majorly results from (1) the lack of knowledge of input variable (mostly random), and (2) data obtained from expert judgment or subjective interpretation of available information (non-random). An integrated probabilistic-fuzzy health risk approach has been proposed for simultaneous treatment of random and non-random uncertainties associated with input parameters of health risk model. The LandSim 2.5, a landfill simulator, has been used to simulate the Turbhe landfill (Navi Mumbai, India) activities for various time horizons. Further the LandSim simulated six heavy metals concentration in ground water have been used in the health risk model. The water intake, exposure duration, exposure frequency, bioavailability and average time are treated as fuzzy variables, while the heavy metals concentration and body weight are considered as probabilistic variables. Identical alpha-cut and reliability level are considered for fuzzy and probabilistic variables respectively and further, uncertainty in non-carcinogenic human health risk is estimated using ten thousand Monte-Carlo simulations (MCS). This is the first effort in which all the health risk variables have been considered as non-deterministic for the estimation of uncertainty in risk output. The non-exceedance probability of Hazard Index (HI), summation of hazard quotients, of heavy metals of Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn and Fe for male and female population have been quantified and found to be high (HI>1) for all the considered time horizon, which evidently shows possibility of adverse health effects on the population residing near Turbhe landfill.

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

PubMed

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

Health issues associated with the smuggling and trafficking of migrants.

PubMed

Gushulak, B D; MacPherson, D W

2000-04-01

Approximately 4 million persons annually may be smuggled illegally across international borders. In 1997 it was estimated that 700,000 women or children were smuggled across international borders, of whom 175,000 were estimated to come from the former Soviet bloc; approximately 45,000-50,000 smuggled women and children arrived in the United States in that year. This article develops a framework to consider the impact of human trafficking on health within the context of migrant health and the destination population's health. Health risks are assumed by the individual being smuggled during the pre-journey, migratory, and arrival phases. In addition, the recipient country's population may also incur additional health burdens related to illegal arrivals from higher disease prevalence areas of the world. Some of this disease risk potential may be from transmissible agents, but there is increasing concern, and some evidence, that noncontagious diseases may be a significant problem associated with human trafficking. The global consideration of human smuggling and the individual and social impact on health are the focus of this paper.

Conservation investment for rare plants in urban environments.

PubMed

Schwartz, Mark W; Smith, Lacy M; Steel, Zachary L

2013-01-01

Budgets for species conservation limit actions. Expending resources in areas of high human density is costly and generally considered less likely to succeed. Yet, coastal California contains both a large fraction of narrowly endemic at-risk plant species as well as the state's three largest metropolitan regions. Hence understanding the capacity to protect species along the highly urbanized coast is a conservation priority. We examine at-risk plant populations along California's coastline from San Diego to north of San Francisco to better understand whether there is a relationship between human population density and: i) performance of at-risk plant populations; and ii) conservation spending. Answering these questions can help focus appropriate strategic conservation investment. Rare plant performance was measured using the annualized growth rate estimate between census periods using the California Natural Diversity Database. Human density was estimated using Census Bureau statistics from the year 2000. We found strong evidence for a lack of a relationship between human population density and plant population performance in California's coastal counties. Analyzing US Endangered Species expenditure reports, we found large differences in expenditures among counties, with plants in San Diego County receiving much higher expenditures than other locations. We found a slight positive relationship between expenditures on behalf of endangered species and human density. Together these data support the argument that conservation efforts by protecting habitats within urban environments are not less likely to be successful than in rural areas. Expenditures on behalf of federally listed endangered and threatened plants do not appear to be related to proximity to human populations. Given the evidence of sufficient performance in urban environments, along with a high potential to leverage public support for nature in urban environments, expenditures in these areas appear to be an appropriate use of conservation funds.

Bounding Analysis of Drinking Water Health Risks from a Spill of Hydraulic Fracturing Flowback Water.

PubMed

Rish, William R; Pfau, Edward J

2018-04-01

A bounding risk assessment is presented that evaluates possible human health risk from a hypothetical scenario involving a 10,000-gallon release of flowback water from horizontal fracturing of Marcellus Shale. The water is assumed to be spilled on the ground, infiltrates into groundwater that is a source of drinking water, and an adult and child located downgradient drink the groundwater. Key uncertainties in estimating risk are given explicit quantitative treatment using Monte Carlo analysis. Chemicals that contribute significantly to estimated health risks are identified, as are key uncertainties and variables to which risk estimates are sensitive. The results show that hypothetical exposure via drinking water impacted by chemicals in Marcellus Shale flowback water, assumed to be spilled onto the ground surface, results in predicted bounds between 10 -10 and 10 -6 (for both adult and child receptors) for excess lifetime cancer risk. Cumulative hazard indices (HI CUMULATIVE ) resulting from these hypothetical exposures have predicted bounds (5th to 95th percentile) between 0.02 and 35 for assumed adult receptors and 0.1 and 146 for assumed child receptors. Predicted health risks are dominated by noncancer endpoints related to ingestion of barium and lithium in impacted groundwater. Hazard indices above unity are largely related to exposure to lithium. Salinity taste thresholds are likely to be exceeded before drinking water exposures result in adverse health effects. The findings provide focus for policy discussions concerning flowback water risk management. They also indicate ways to improve the ability to estimate health risks from drinking water impacted by a flowback water spill (i.e., reducing uncertainty). © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Automated detection and enumeration of marine wildlife using unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and thermal imagery

PubMed Central

Seymour, A. C.; Dale, J.; Hammill, M.; Halpin, P. N.; Johnston, D. W.

2017-01-01

Estimating animal populations is critical for wildlife management. Aerial surveys are used for generating population estimates, but can be hampered by cost, logistical complexity, and human risk. Additionally, human counts of organisms in aerial imagery can be tedious and subjective. Automated approaches show promise, but can be constrained by long setup times and difficulty discriminating animals in aggregations. We combine unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), thermal imagery and computer vision to improve traditional wildlife survey methods. During spring 2015, we flew fixed-wing UAS equipped with thermal sensors, imaging two grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) breeding colonies in eastern Canada. Human analysts counted and classified individual seals in imagery manually. Concurrently, an automated classification and detection algorithm discriminated seals based upon temperature, size, and shape of thermal signatures. Automated counts were within 95–98% of human estimates; at Saddle Island, the model estimated 894 seals compared to analyst counts of 913, and at Hay Island estimated 2188 seals compared to analysts’ 2311. The algorithm improves upon shortcomings of computer vision by effectively recognizing seals in aggregations while keeping model setup time minimal. Our study illustrates how UAS, thermal imagery, and automated detection can be combined to efficiently collect population data critical to wildlife management. PMID:28338047

Automated detection and enumeration of marine wildlife using unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and thermal imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seymour, A. C.; Dale, J.; Hammill, M.; Halpin, P. N.; Johnston, D. W.

2017-03-01

Estimating animal populations is critical for wildlife management. Aerial surveys are used for generating population estimates, but can be hampered by cost, logistical complexity, and human risk. Additionally, human counts of organisms in aerial imagery can be tedious and subjective. Automated approaches show promise, but can be constrained by long setup times and difficulty discriminating animals in aggregations. We combine unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), thermal imagery and computer vision to improve traditional wildlife survey methods. During spring 2015, we flew fixed-wing UAS equipped with thermal sensors, imaging two grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) breeding colonies in eastern Canada. Human analysts counted and classified individual seals in imagery manually. Concurrently, an automated classification and detection algorithm discriminated seals based upon temperature, size, and shape of thermal signatures. Automated counts were within 95-98% of human estimates; at Saddle Island, the model estimated 894 seals compared to analyst counts of 913, and at Hay Island estimated 2188 seals compared to analysts’ 2311. The algorithm improves upon shortcomings of computer vision by effectively recognizing seals in aggregations while keeping model setup time minimal. Our study illustrates how UAS, thermal imagery, and automated detection can be combined to efficiently collect population data critical to wildlife management.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Badhwar, G. D.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2001-01-01

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

Cancer risk from incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs associated with coal-tar-sealed pavement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, E. Spencer; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.

2012-01-01

Recent (2009-10) studies documented significantly higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in settled house dust in living spaces and soil adjacent to parking lots sealed with coal-tar-based products. To date, no studies have examined the potential human health effects of PAHs from these products in dust and soil. Here we present the results of an analysis of potential cancer risk associated with incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs in settings near coal-tar-sealed pavement. Exposures to benzo[a]pyrene equivalents were characterized across five scenarios. The central tendency estimate of excess cancer risk resulting from lifetime exposures to soil and dust from nondietary ingestion in these settings exceeded 1 × 10–4, as determined using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Soil was the primary driver of risk, but according to probabilistic calculations, reasonable maximum exposure to affected house dust in the first 6 years of life was sufficient to generate an estimated excess lifetime cancer risk of 6 × 10–5. Our results indicate that the presence of coal-tar-based pavement sealants is associated with significant increases in estimated excess lifetime cancer risk for nearby residents. Much of this calculated excess risk arises from exposures to PAHs in early childhood (i.e., 0–6 years of age).

Incorporating Human Interindividual Biotransformation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The protection of sensitive individuals within a population dictates that measures other than central tendencies be employed to estimate risk. The refinement of human health risk assessments for chemicals metabolized by the liver to reflect data on human variability can be accomplished through (1) the characterization of enzyme expression in large banks of human liver samples, (2) the employment of appropriate techniques for the quantification and extrapolation of metabolic rates derived in vitro, and (3) the judicious application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. While in vitro measurements of specific biochemical reactions from multiple human samples can yield qualitatively valuable data on human variance, such measures must be put into the perspective of the intact human to yield the most valuable predictions of metabolic differences among humans. For quantitative metabolism data to be the most valuable in risk assessment, they must be tied to human anatomy and physiology, and the impact of their variance evaluated under real exposure scenarios. For chemicals metabolized in the liver, the concentration of parent chemical in the liver represents the substrate concentration in the MichaelisMenten description of metabolism. Metabolic constants derived in vitro may be extrapolated to the intact liver, when appropriate conditions are met. Metabolic capacity Vmax; the maximal rate of the reaction) can be scaled directly to the concentration

Estimation of hypertension risk from lifestyle factors and health profile: a case study.

PubMed

Zheng, Zhuoyuan; Li, Ye; Cai, Yunpeng

2014-01-01

Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies.

Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies. PMID:25019099

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

PubMed

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Shapiro, Andrew J

2018-01-11

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is an important step in human health risk assessment and is used as the default approach to identify the point of departure for risk assessment. A probabilistic framework for dose-response assessment has been proposed and advocated by various institutions and organizations; therefore, a reliable tool is needed to provide distributional estimates for BMD and other important quantities in dose-response assessment. We developed an online system for Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation and compared results from this software with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). The system is built on a Bayesian framework featuring the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model parameter estimation and BMD calculation, which makes the BBMD system fundamentally different from the currently prevailing BMD software packages. In addition to estimating the traditional BMDs for dichotomous and continuous data, the developed system is also capable of computing model-averaged BMD estimates. A total of 518 dichotomous and 108 continuous data sets extracted from the U.S. EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database (and similar databases) were used as testing data to compare the estimates from the BBMD and BMDS programs. The results suggest that the BBMD system may outperform the BMDS program in a number of aspects, including fewer failed BMD and BMDL calculations and estimates. The BBMD system is a useful alternative tool for estimating BMD with additional functionalities for BMD analysis based on most recent research. Most importantly, the BBMD has the potential to incorporate prior information to make dose-response modeling more reliable and can provide distributional estimates for important quantities in dose-response assessment, which greatly facilitates the current trend for probabilistic risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289.

Green and black tea consumption and risk of stroke: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Arab, Lenore; Liu, Weiqing; Elashoff, David

2009-05-01

Experimental models of stroke provide consistent evidence of smaller stroke volumes in animals ingesting tea components or tea extracts. To assess whether a similar association of black or green tea consumption with reduced risk is evident in human populations, we sought to identify and summarize all human clinical and observational data on tea and stroke. We searched PubMed and Web of Science for all studies on stroke and tea consumption in humans with original data, including estimation or measurement of tea consumption and outcomes of fatal or nonfatal stroke. Data from 9 studies involving 4378 strokes among 194 965 individuals were pooled. The main outcome was the occurrence of fatal or nonfatal stroke. We tested for heterogeneity and calculated the summary effect estimate associated with consumption of >or=3 cups of tea (green or black) per day using random-effects and fixed-effects models for the homogeneous studies. Publication bias was also evaluated. Regardless of their country of origin, individuals consuming >or=3 cups of tea per day had a 21% lower risk of stroke than those consuming <1 cup per day (absolute risk reduction, 0.79; CI, 0.73 to 0.85). The proportion of heterogeneity not explained by chance alone was 23.8%. Although a randomized clinical trial would be necessary to confirm the effect, this meta-analysis suggests that daily consumption of either green or black tea equaling 3 cups per day could prevent the onset of ischemic stroke.

Coupling a continuous watershed-scale microbial fate and transport model with a stochastic dose-response model to estimate risk of illness in an urban watershed.

PubMed

Liao, Hehuan; Krometis, Leigh-Anne H; Kline, Karen

2016-05-01

Within the United States, elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) remain the leading cause of surface water-quality impairments requiring formal remediation plans under the federal Clean Water Act's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program. The sufficiency of compliance with numerical FIB criteria as the targeted endpoint of TMDL remediation plans may be questionable given poor correlations between FIB and pathogenic microorganisms and varying degrees of risk associated with exposure to different fecal pollution sources (e.g. human vs animal). The present study linked a watershed-scale FIB fate and transport model with a dose-response model to continuously predict human health risks via quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), for comparison to regulatory benchmarks. This process permitted comparison of risks associated with different fecal pollution sources in an impaired urban watershed in order to identify remediation priorities. Results indicate that total human illness risks were consistently higher than the regulatory benchmark of 36 illnesses/1000 people for the study watershed, even when the predicted FIB levels were in compliance with the Escherichia coli geometric mean standard of 126CFU/100mL. Sanitary sewer overflows were associated with the greatest risk of illness. This is of particular concern, given increasing indications that sewer leakage is ubiquitous in urban areas, yet not typically fully accounted for during TMDL development. Uncertainty analysis suggested the accuracy of risk estimates would be improved by more detailed knowledge of site-specific pathogen presence and densities. While previous applications of the QMRA process to impaired waterways have mostly focused on single storm events or hypothetical situations, the continuous modeling framework presented in this study could be integrated into long-term water quality management planning, especially the United States' TMDL program, providing greater clarity to watershed stakeholders and decision-makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

2006-01-01

Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species.

PubMed

Feeley, Kenneth J; Silman, Miles R

2009-07-28

Estimates of the number, and preferably the identity, of species that will be threatened by land-use change and habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data and ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions for more than 40,000 vascular plant species from the Amazon basin (representing more than 80% of the estimated Amazonian plant diversity). Using the distribution maps, we then estimate the rates of habitat loss and associated extinction probabilities due to land-use changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict that by 2050, human land-use practices will have reduced the habitat available to Amazonian plant species by approximately 12-24%, resulting in 5-9% of species becoming "committed to extinction," significantly fewer than other recent estimates. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the primary determinant of habitat loss and extinction risk is not the size of a species' range, but rather its location. The resulting extinction risk estimates are a valuable conservation tool because they indicate not only the total percentage of Amazonian plant species threatened with extinction but also the degree to which individual species and habitats will be affected by current and future land-use changes.

Health risks posed to infants in rural China by exposure to short- and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in breast milk.

PubMed

Xia, Dan; Gao, Li-Rong; Zheng, Ming-Hui; Li, Jing-Guang; Zhang, Lei; Wu, Yong-Ning; Qiao, Lin; Tian, Qi-Chang; Huang, Hui-Ting; Liu, Wen-Bin; Su, Gui-Jin; Liu, Guo-Rui

2017-06-01

Chlorinated paraffins (CPs) are complex mixtures of synthetic chemicals found widely in environmental matrices. Short-chain CPs (SCCPs) are candidate persistent organic pollutants under the Stockholm Convention. There should be great concern about human exposure to SCCPs. Data on CP concentrations in human breast milk is scarce. This is the first study in which background SCCP and medium-chain CP (MCCP) body burdens in the general rural population of China have been estimated and health risks posed to nursing infants by CPs in breast milk assessed. The concentrations of 48 SCCP and MCCP formula congeners were determined in 24 pooled human milk samples produced from 1412 individual samples from eight provinces in 2007 and 16 provinces in 2011. The samples were analyzed by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography electron capture negative ionization high-resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry. The median SCCP and MCCP concentrations were 303 and 35.7ngg -1 lipid weight, respectively, for the 2007 samples and 360 and 45.4ngg -1 lipid weight, respectively, for the 2011 samples. The C 10 and C 14 homologs were the dominant CP carbon-chain-length groups, contributing 51% and 82% of the total SCCP and MCCP concentrations, respectively. There are probably multiple CP sources to the general Chinese population and numerous exposure pathways. The median estimated daily SCCP and MCCP intakes for nursing infants were 1310 and 152ngkg -1 d -1 , respectively, in 2007 and 1520 and 212ngkg -1 d -1 , respectively, in 2011. SCCPs do not currently pose significant risks to infants in China. However, it is necessary to continuously monitor CP concentrations and health risks because CP concentrations in Chinese human breast milk are increasing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A.; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J.; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G.; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M.

2015-07-01

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program.

Comparative assessment of endocrine modulators with oestrogenic activity: I. Definition of a hygiene-based margin of safety (HBMOS) for xeno-oestrogens against the background of European developments.

PubMed

Bolt, H M; Janning, P; Michna, H; Degen, G H

2001-01-01

A novel concept - the hygiene-based margin of safety (HBMOS) - is suggested for the assessment of the impact of potential endocrine modulators. It integrates exposure scenarios and potency data for industrial chemicals and naturally occurring dietary compounds with oestrogenic activity. An HBMOS is defined as a quotient of estimated daily intakes weighted by the relative in vivo potencies of these compounds. The Existing Chemicals Programme of the European Union provides Human and Environmental Risk Assessments of Existing Chemicals which include human exposure scenarios. Such exposure scenarios, along with potency estimates for endocrine activities, may provide a basis for a quantitative comparison of the potential endocrine-modulating effects of industrial chemicals with endocrine modulators as natural constituents of human diet. Natural phyto-oestrogens exhibit oestrogenic activity in vitro and in vivo. Important phyto-oestrogens for humans are isoflavones (daidzein, genistein) and lignans, with the highest quantities found in soybeans and flaxseed, respectively. Daily isoflavone exposures calculated for infants on soy-based formulae were in the ranges of 4.5-8 mg/kg body wt.; estimates for adults range up to 1 mg/kg body wt. The Senate Commission on the Evaluation of Food Safety (SKLM) of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft has also indicated a wide range of dietary exposures. For matters of risk assessment, the SKLM has based recommendations on dietary exposure scenarios, implying a daily intake of phyto-oestrogens in the order of 1 mg/kg body wt. On the basis of information compiled within the Existing Chemicals Programme of the EU, it appears that a daily human exposure to nonylphenol of 2 microg/kg body wt. may be a worst-case assumption, but which is based on valid scenarios. The intake of octylphenol is much lower, due to a different use pattern and applications, and may be neglected. Data from migration studies led to estimations of the daily human uptake of bisphenol A of maximally 1 microg/kg body wt. On the basis of comparative data from uterotrophic assays in rats, with three consecutive days of oral applications involved, and taking the natural phyto-oestrogen daidzein as reference (= 1), relative uterotrophic activities in DA/Han rats follow the sequence: daidzein = 1; bisphenol A = 1; p-tertoctylphenol = 2; o, p'-DDT = 4; ethinyl oestradiol = 40,000. The derived values from exposure scenarios, as well as these relative potency values and bridging assumptions, led to calculations of HBMOS as a quantitative comparison of potential endocrine-modulating effects of industrial chemicals with those of natural constituents of human diet. HBMOS estimates for nonylphenol ranged between 250 and 500, dependent on bridging assumptions, and around 1000 for bisphenol A. The derivations of HBMOS were in full support of the conclusions reached by the SKLM of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. The estimated HBMOS values for the industrial chemicals (nonylphenol, bisphenol A) appear sufficiently high to ensure the absence of a practical risk to human health under the present exposure conditions.

Risk Assessment Related to Atmospheric Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Gas and Particle Phases near Industrial Sites

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Noelia; Cuadras, Anna; Marcé, Rosa Maria

2011-01-01

Background: Inhalation is one of the main means of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) because of their ubiquitous presence in the atmosphere. However, most studies have considered only PAHs found in the particle phase and have omitted the contribution of the gas-phase PAHs to the risk. Objective: We estimated the lifetime lung cancer risk from PAH exposure by inhalation in people living next to the largest chemical site in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean area. Methods: We determined 18 PAHs in the atmospheric gas and particle phase. We monitored the PAHs for 1 year in three locations near the chemical site in different seasons. We used toxic equivalence factors to calculate benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalents (BaP-eq) for individual PAHs and applied the World Health Organization unit risk (UR) for BaP (UR = 8.7 × 10–5) to estimate lifetime cancer risks due to PAH exposures. Results: We observed some spatial and seasonal variability in PAH concentrations. The contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the total BaP-eq value was between 34% and 86%. The total estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk due to PAH exposure in the study area was 1.2 × 10–4. Conclusions: The estimated risk was higher than values recommended by the World Health Organization and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency but lower than the threshold value of 10–3 that is considered an indication of definite risk according to similar risk studies. The results also showed that risk may be underestimated if the contributions of gas-phase PAHs are not considered. PMID:21478082

Transmissibility of Variant Influenza From Swine to Humans: A Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Wong, Karen K.; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn; Swerdlow, David L.; Ostroff, Stephen; Reed, Carrie

2015-01-01

Background Respiratory illness was reported among humans and swine at an agricultural fair in 2011; 3 human infections with an influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus were confirmed. Using epidemiologic investigation data, we sought to estimate H3N2v transmissibility from swine to humans. Methods We developed a model of H3N2v transmission among swine and humans and fit it to data from a cohort of 100 agricultural club members reporting swine contact to estimate transmissibility. A sensitivity analysis was performed varying H3N2v prevalence in the club cohort. Using the best-fit transmission probability, we simulated the number of swine-acquired infections among all fair attendees. Results We estimated the best-fit probability of swine-to-human H3N2v transmission per minute of swine contact. Applying this probability to 14 910 people with swine contact at the fair, we estimate that there were 80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 40–133) H3N2v infections among persons aged <20 years and 58 (95% CI, 29–96) H3N2v infections among person aged ≥20 years. Conclusions Using early data from investigation of a new virus with unclear transmission properties, we estimated the transmissibility of H3N2v from swine to humans and the burden of H3N2v among fair attendees. Although the risk of H3N2v virus infection is small for fair attendees with minimal swine contact, large populations attend agricultural events each year, and human cases will likely occur when infected swine are present. PMID:23794727

Years of potential life lost and productivity costs because of cancer mortality and for specific cancer sites where human papillomavirus may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis-United States, 2003.

PubMed

Ekwueme, Donatus U; Chesson, Harrell W; Zhang, Kevin B; Balamurugan, Appathurai

2008-11-15

Although years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality-related productivity costs comprise a substantial portion of the burden of cancers where human papillomavirus (HPV) may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis (called HPV-associated cancers in this report), estimates of these costs are limited. The authors estimated the mortality-related burden (in terms of YPLL and productivity costs) of HPV-associated cancers (without regard to the percentage of each of these cancers that could be attributed to HPV) and all malignant cancers in the United States in 2003. The authors used 2003 national mortality data and US life tables to estimate YPLL for HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. YPLL was estimated by using the life expectancy method. The human capital approach was used to estimate the value of the expected future lifetime productivity losses caused by premature deaths from HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. Indirect mortality costs were estimated as the product of the number of deaths and the expected value of individuals' future earnings, including an imputed value of housekeeping services. In 2003, HPV-associated cancers accounted for 181,026 YPLL, which represented 2.4% of the estimated 7.5 million YPLL attributable to all malignant cancers in the United States. The average number of YPLL was 21.8 per HPV-associated cancer death and 16.3 per death from overall malignant cancers. Overall, HPV-associated cancers had the largest relative contribution to YPLL in women ages 30 to 34 years. The lifetime productivity cost from mortality in 2003 was $3.7 billion for HPV-associated cancer mortality and $133.5 billion for overall malignant cancer mortality. HPV-associated cancers impose a considerable burden in terms of premature deaths and productivity losses.

Groundwater contamination by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon due to diesel spill from a telecom base station in a Nigerian City: assessment of human health risk exposure.

PubMed

Ugochukwu, Uzochukwu Cornelius; Ochonogor, Alfred

2018-03-26

Diesel pollution of groundwater poses great threat to public health, mainly as a result of the constituent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). In this study, the human health risk exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in diesel contaminated groundwater used by several families at Ring Road, Jos, Nigeria (as caused by diesel spill from a telecom base station) was assessed. Prior to the groundwater being treated, the residents were using the water after scooping off the visible diesel sheen for purposes of cooking, washing, and bathing. Until this study, it is not clear whether the groundwater contamination had resulted in sub-chronic exposure of the residents using the water to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to the extent of the PAHs posing a health risk. The diesel contaminated groundwater and uncontaminated nearby groundwater (control) were collected and analyzed for PAHs using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The dosage of the dermal and oral ingestion entry routes of PAHs was determined. The estimation of the non-carcinogenic health risk was via hazard quotients (HQ) and the associated hazard index (HI), while the estimation of the carcinogenic health risk was via lifetime cancer risks (LCR) and the associated risk index (RI). Obtained results indicate that the exposure of the residents to the PAHs may have made them susceptible to the risk of non-carcinogenic health effects of benzo(a)pyrene and the carcinogenic health effects of benzo(a)anthracene and benzo(a)pyrene.

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, L. J.; Elgart, S. R.; Milder, C. M.; Shavers, M. R.; Semones, E. J.; Huff, J. L.

2017-01-01

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

EPA perspective - exposure and effects prediction and monitoring

EPA Science Inventory

Risk-based decisions for environmental chemicals often rely on estimates of human exposure and biological response. Biomarkers have proven a useful empirical tool for evaluating exposure and hazard predictions. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventio...

Estimating lifetime risk from spot biomarker data and intra‐class correlation coefficients (ICC)

EPA Science Inventory

Human biomarker measurements in tissues including blood, breath, and urine can serve as efficient surrogates for environmental monitoring because a single biological sample integrates personal exposure across all environmental media and uptake pathways. However, biomarkers repres...

Thoracic and respirable particle definitions for human health risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Provides estimates of the thoracic and respirable fractions, for adults and children during typical activities during both nasal and oral inhalation, that may be used in the design of experimental studies and interpretation of evidence of health effects.

20171015 - Predicting Exposure Pathways with Machine Learning (ISES)

EPA Science Inventory

Prioritizing the risk posed to human health from the thousands of chemicals in the environment requires tools that can estimate exposure rates from limited information. High throughput models exist to make predictions of exposure via specific, important pathways such as residenti...

Characterization of organophosphorus flame retardants' sorption on building materials and consumer products

EPA Science Inventory

Better understanding the transport mechanisms of organophosphorus flame-retardants (OPFRs) in the residential environment is important to more accurately estimate their indoor exposure and develop risk management strategies that protect human health. This study describes an impro...

Improving estimation of phytoplankton isotopic values from bulk POM samples in rivers

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/MethodsResponses of phytoplankton to excessive nutrients in rivers cause many ecological problems, including harmful algal blooms, hypoxia and even food web collapse, posing serious risks to fish and human health. Successful remediation requires identificati...

Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty in Exposure Assessments Improves links to Environmental Decision-Making

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental Decisions often rely upon observational data or model estimates. For instance, the evaluation of human health or ecological risks often includes information on pollutant emission rates, environmental concentrations, exposures, and exposure/dose-response data. Whet...

New High Throughput Methods to Estimate Chemical Exposure

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has made many recent advances in high throughput bioactivity testing. However, concurrent advances in rapid, quantitative prediction of human and ecological exposures have been lacking, despite the clear importance of both measures for a risk-based approach to prioritizing an...

Estimating and Valuing Morbidity in a Policy Context: Proceedings of June 1989 AERE Workshop (1989)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Contains the proceedings for the 1989 Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Workshop on valuing reductions in human health morbidity risks. Series of papers and discussions were collected and reported in the document.

The road traffic crashes as a neglected public health concern; an observational study from Iranian population.

PubMed

Bakhtiyari, Mahmood; Delpisheh, Ali; Monfared, Ayad Bahadori; Kazemi-Galougahi, Mohammad Hassan; Mehmandar, Mohammad Reza; Riahi, Mohammad; Salehi, Masoud; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2015-01-01

Traffic crashes are multifactorial events caused by human factors, technical issues, and environmental conditions. The present study aimed to determine the role of human factors in traffic crashes in Iran using the proportional odds regression model. The database of all traffic crashes in Iran in 2010 (n = 592, 168) registered through the "COM.114" police forms was investigated. Human risk factors leading to traffic crashes were determined and the odds ratio (OR) of each risk factor was estimated using an ordinal regression model and adjusted for potential confounding factors such as age, gender, and lighting status within and outside of cities. The drivers' mean age ± standard deviation was 34.1 ± 14.0 years. The most prevalent risk factors leading to death within cities were disregarding traffic rules and regulations (45%), driver rushing (31%), and alcohol consumption (12.3%). Using the proportional odds regression model, alcohol consumption was the most significant human risk factor in traffic crashes within cities (OR = 6.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.88-8.65) and outside of cities (OR = 1.73, 95% CI, 1.22-3.29). Public health strategies and preventive policies should be focused on more common human risk factors such as disregarding traffic rules and regulations, drivers' rushing, and alcohol consumption due to their greater population attributable fraction and more intuitive impacts on society.

Assessing potential human health hazards and benefits from subtherapeutic antibiotics in the United States: tetracyclines as a case study.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony; Popken, Douglas A

2010-03-01

Many scientists, activists, regulators, and politicians have expressed urgent concern that using antibiotics in food animals selects for resistant strains of bacteria that harm human health and bring nearer a "postantibiotic era" of multidrug resistant "super-bugs." Proposed political solutions, such as the Preservation of Antibiotics for Medical Treatment Act (PAMTA), would ban entire classes of subtherapeutic antibiotics (STAs) now used for disease prevention and growth promotion in food animals. The proposed bans are not driven by formal quantitative risk assessment (QRA), but by a perceived need for immediate action to prevent potential catastrophe. Similar fears led to STA phase-outs in Europe a decade ago. However, QRA and empirical data indicate that continued use of STAs in the United States has not harmed human health, and bans in Europe have not helped human health. The fears motivating PAMTA contrast with QRA estimates of vanishingly small risks. As a case study, examining specific tetracycline uses and resistance patterns suggests that there is no significant human health hazard from continued use of tetracycline in food animals. Simple hypothetical calculations suggest an unobservably small risk (between 0 and 1.75E-11 excess lifetime risk of a tetracycline-resistant infection), based on the long history of tetracycline use in the United States without resistance-related treatment failures. QRAs for other STA uses in food animals also find that human health risks are vanishingly small. Whether such QRA calculations will guide risk management policy for animal antibiotics in the United States remains to be seen.

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in regions where human activity is significant, even if it is under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. More realistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and the cost estimation of how much economic investments are needed to maintain the current level of the risks of water scarcity are necessary.

PEER REVIEW SUPPORTING THE STANDARDS FOR THE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has been working on developing risk assessments to assist regulators, industry, and the public in evaluating the environmental risks associated with Fossil Fuel Combustion Waste(s) (FFCW) management/disposal in landfills, surface impoundments, other disposal procedures and beneficial uses. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is evaluating management options for solid wastes from coal combustion (e.g., fly ash, bottom ash, slag). As part of this effort, EPA has prepared the Draft Human and Ecological Risk Assessment of Coal Combustion Wastes. The purpose of this draft risk assessment is to identify and quantify human health and ecological risks that may be associated with current disposal practices for high-volume coal combustion waste (CCW), including fly ash, bottom ash, boiler slag, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) sludge, coal refuse waste, and wastes from fluidized-bed combustion (FBC) units. These risk estimates will help inform EPA’s decisions about how to treat CCW under Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act.

A long-term comparative assessment of human health risk to leachate-contaminated groundwater from heavy metal with different liner systems.

PubMed

Mishra, Harshit; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kumar, Rakesh; Kadambala, Praneeth

2018-01-01

The handling and management of municipal solid waste (MSW) are major challenges for solid waste management in developing countries. Open dumping is still the most common waste disposal method in India. However, landfilling also causes various environmental, social, and human health impacts. The generation of heavily polluted leachate is a major concern to public health. Engineered barrier systems (EBSs) are commonly used to restrict potentially harmful wastes by preventing the leachate percolation to groundwater and overflow to surface water bodies. The EBSs are made of natural (e.g., soil, clay) and/or synthetic materials such as polymeric materials (e.g., geomembranes, geosynthetic clay liners) by arranging them in layers. Various studies have estimated the human health risk from leachate-contaminated groundwater. However, no studies have been reported to compare the human health risks, particularly due to the leachate contamination with different liner systems. The present study endeavors to quantify the human health risk to contamination from MSW landfill leachate using multiple simulations for various EBSs. To quantify the variation in health risks to groundwater consumption to the child and adult populations, the Turbhe landfill of Navi Mumbai in India has been selected. The leachate and groundwater samples were collected continuously throughout January-September in 2015 from the landfill site, and heavy metal concentrations were analyzed using an inductively coupled plasma system. The LandSim 2.5 Model, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and non-carcinogenic human health risk was determined for selected heavy metals. Further, the uncertainties associated with multiple input parameters in the health risk model were quantified under a Monte Carlo simulation framework.

Quantitative measurement of protein digestion in simulated gastric fluid.

PubMed

Herman, Rod A; Korjagin, Valerie A; Schafer, Barry W

2005-04-01

The digestibility of novel proteins in simulated gastric fluid is considered to be an indicator of reduced risk of allergenic potential in food, and estimates of digestibility for transgenic proteins expressed in crops are required for making a human-health risk assessment by regulatory authorities. The estimation of first-order rate constants for digestion under conditions of low substrate concentration was explored for two protein substrates (azocoll and DQ-ovalbumin). Data conformed to first-order kinetics, and half-lives were relatively insensitive to significant variations in both substrate and pepsin concentration when high purity pepsin preparations were used. Estimation of digestion efficiency using densitometric measurements of relative protein concentration based on SDS-PAGE corroborated digestion estimates based on measurements of dye or fluorescence release from the labeled substrates. The suitability of first-order rate constants for estimating the efficiency of the pepsin digestion of novel proteins is discussed. Results further support a kinetic approach as appropriate for comparing the digestibility of proteins in simulated gastric fluid.

Experience of German Red Cross blood donor services with nucleic acid testing: results of screening more than 30 million blood donations for human immunodeficiency virus-1, hepatitis C virus, and hepatitis B virus.

PubMed

Hourfar, Michael K; Jork, Christine; Schottstedt, Volkmar; Weber-Schehl, Marijke; Brixner, Veronika; Busch, Michael P; Geusendam, Geert; Gubbe, Knut; Mahnhardt, Christina; Mayr-Wohlfart, Uschi; Pichl, Lutz; Roth, W Kurt; Schmidt, Michael; Seifried, Erhard; Wright, David J

2008-08-01

The risk of transfusion-transmitted human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections is predominantly attributable to donations given during the early stage of infection when diagnostic tests may fail. In 1997, nucleic acid amplification technique (NAT)-testing was introduced at the German Red Cross (GRC) blood donor services to reduce this diagnostic window period (WP). A total of 31,524,571 blood donations collected from 1997 through 2005 were screened by minipool NAT, predominantly with pool sizes of 96 donations. These donations cover approximately 80 percent of all the blood collected in Germany during that period. Based on these data, the WP risk in the GRC blood donor population was estimated by using a state-of-the-art mathematic model. During the observation period, 23 HCV, 7 HIV-1, and 43 HBV NAT-only-positive donations were detected. On the basis of these data and estimated pre-NAT infectious WPs, the residual risk per unit transfused was estimated at 1 in 10.88 million for HCV (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.51-19.72 million), 1 in 4.30 million for HIV-1 (95% CI, 2.39-21.37 million), and 1 in 360,000 for HBV (95% CI, 0.19-3.36 million). Based on observed cases of breakthrough infections, the risk of transfusion-related infections may be even lower. The risk of a blood recipient becoming infected with HCV, HIV-1, or HBV has reached an extremely low level. Introduction of individual donation testing for HCV and HIV-1 would have a marginal effect on interception of WP donations.

Chemometric evaluation of heavy metal pollutions in Patna region of the Ganges alluvial plain, India: implication for source apportionment and health risk assessment.

PubMed

Devi, Ningombam Linthoingambi; Yadav, Ishwar Chandra

2018-03-28

While metal pollution and distribution in soil are well documented for many countries, the situation is more serious in developing countries because of the rapid increase in industrialization and urbanization during last decades. Although it is well documented in developed countries, data about substantial metal pollution in Indian soil, especially in eastern Ganges alluvial plain (GAP), are limited. In this study, eight different blocks of Patna district located in eastern GAP were selected to investigate the contamination, accumulation, and sources of metals in surface soil considering different land use types. Additionally, human health risk assessment was estimated to mark the potential carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effect of metals in soil. The concentration of all metals (except Pb) in soil was below the Indian standard limit of the potential toxic element for agricultural soil. Pb was the most abundant in soil, followed by Zn and Cu, and accounted for 52, 33 and 8% of the total metal. In terms of land use types, roadside soil detected higher concentrations of all metals, followed by park/grassland soil. Principal component analysis results indicated traffic pollution and industrial emissions are the major sources of heavy metals in soil. This was further confirmed by strong inter-correlation of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu and Pb). Human health risk assessment results indicated ingestion via soil as the primary pathway of heavy metal exposure to both adults and children population. The estimated hazard index was highest for Pb, suggesting significant non-carcinogenic effect to both adults and children population. The children were more prone to the non-carcinogenic effect of Pb than adults. However, relatively low cancer risk value estimated for all metals suggested non-significant carcinogenic risk in the soil.

Type 2 Diabetes Risk Alleles Demonstrate Extreme Directional Differentiation among Human Populations, Compared to Other Diseases

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Corona, Erik; Sikora, Martin; Dudley, Joel T.; Morgan, Alex A.; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Nilsen, Geoffrey B.; Ruau, David; Lincoln, Stephen E.; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Butte, Atul J.

2012-01-01

Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may contribute to the observed disparity in T2D incidence rates across ethnic populations. PMID:22511877

Acute myocardial infarction and COPD attributed to ambient SO2 in Iran.

PubMed

Khaniabadi, Yusef Omidi; Daryanoosh, Seyed Mohammad; Hopke, Philip K; Ferrante, Margherita; De Marco, Alessandra; Sicard, Pierre; Oliveri Conti, Gea; Goudarzi, Gholamreza; Basiri, Hassan; Mohammadi, Mohammad Javad; Keishams, Fariba

2017-07-01

Acute myocardial infarction (MI) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are important diseases worldwide. Inhalation is the major route of short-term exposure to air sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) that negatively affect human health. The objective of this study was to estimate the health effects of short-term exposure to SO 2 in Khorramabad, Iran using the AirQ software developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Daily mean SO 2 concentrations were used as the estimates of human short-term exposure and allow calculation of the attributable excess relative risk of an acute MI and hospital admissions due to COPD (HACOPD). The annual mean SO 2 concentration in Khorramabad was 51.33µg/m 3 . Based on the relative risk (RR) and baseline incidence (BI) approach of WHO, an increased risk of 2.7% (95% CI: 1.1-4.2%) of acute MI and 2.0% (95% CI: 0-4.6%) of HACOPD, respectively, were attributed to a 10µg/m 3 SO 2 increase. Since the geographic, demographic, and climatic characteristics are different from the areas in which the risk relationships were developed and not evaluated here, further investigations will be needed to fully quantify other health impacts of SO 2 . A decreased risk for MIs and COPD attributable to SO 2 could be achieved if mitigation strategies and measures are implemented to reduce the exposure. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk assessment of titanium dioxide nanoparticles via oral exposure, including toxicokinetic considerations.

PubMed

Heringa, Minne B; Geraets, Liesbeth; van Eijkeren, Jan C H; Vandebriel, Rob J; de Jong, Wim H; Oomen, Agnes G

2016-12-01

Titanium dioxide white pigment consists of particles of various sizes, from which a fraction is in the nano range (<100 nm). It is applied in food as additive E 171 as well as in other products, such as food supplements and toothpaste. Here, we assessed whether a human health risk can be expected from oral ingestion of these titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO 2 NPs), based on currently available information. Human health risks were assessed using two different approaches: Approach 1, based on intake, i.e. external doses, and Approach 2, based on internal organ concentrations using a kinetic model in order to account for accumulation over time (the preferred approach). Results showed that with Approach 1, a human health risk is not expected for effects in liver and spleen, but a human health risk cannot be excluded for effects on the ovaries. When based on organ concentrations by including the toxicokinetics of TiO 2 NPs (Approach 2), a potential risk for liver, ovaries and testes is found. This difference between the two approaches shows the importance of including toxicokinetic information. The currently estimated risk can be influenced by factors such as absorption, form of TiO 2 , particle fraction, particle size and physico-chemical properties in relation to toxicity, among others. Analysis of actual particle concentrations in human organs, as well as organ concentrations and effects in liver and the reproductive system after chronic exposure to well-characterized TiO 2 (NPs) in animals are recommended to refine this assessment.

CV-22 Human Vibration Evaluation

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

for comfort and health risk based on the standard guidelines . The overall rating for comfort was marginal. The overall rating for health risk was... guidelines . Data were collected on one day during two sorties. At all three stations, the majority of flight test conditions were estimated to be...fairly uncomfortable” according to the ISO 2631-1: 1997 guidelines , which are independent of time. Based on this assessment, the overall rating for

Bioconcentration of gaseous organic chemicals in plant leaves: Comparison of experimental data with model predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polder, M.D.; Hulzebos, E.M.; Jager, D.T.

1998-01-01

This literature study is performed to support the implementation of two models in a risk assessment system for the evaluation of chemicals and their risk for human health and the environment. One of the exposure pathways for humans and cattle is the uptake of chemicals by plants. In this risk assessment system the transfer of gaseous organic substances from air to plants modeled by Riederer is included. A similar model with a more refined approach, including dilution by growth, is proposed by Trapp and Matthies, which was implemented in the European version of this risk assessment system (EUSES). In thismore » study both models are evaluated by comparison with experimental data on leaf/air partition coefficients found in the literature. For herbaceous plants both models give good estimations for the leaf/air partition coefficient up to 10{sup 7}, with deviations for most substances within a factor of five. For the azalea and spruce group the fit between experimental BCF values and the calculated model values is less adequate. For substances for which Riederer estimates a leaf/air partition coefficient above 10{sup 7}, the approach of Trapp and Matthies seems more adequate; however, few data were available.« less

The risk of water scarcity at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Sharpe, Simon

2015-04-01

Water scarcity is a threat to human well-being and economic development in many countries today. Future climate change is expected to exacerbate the global water crisis by reducing renewable freshwater resources different world regions, many of which are already dry. Studies of future water scarcity often focus on most-likely, or highest-confidence, scenarios. However, multi-model projections of water resources reveal large uncertainty ranges, which are due to different types of processes (climate, hydrology, human) and are therefore not easy to reduce. Thus, central estimates or multi-model mean results may be insufficient to inform policy and management. Here we present an alternative, risk-based approach. We use an ensemble of multiple global climate and hydrological models to quantify the likelihood of crossing a given water scarcity threshold under different levels of global warming. This approach allows assessing the risk associated with any particular, pre-defined threshold (or magnitude of change that must be avoided), regardless of whether it lies in the center or in the tails of the uncertainty distribution. We show applications of this method on the country and river basin scale, illustrate the effects of societal processes on the resulting risk estimates, and discuss the further potential of this approach for research and stakeholder dialogue.

Emissions of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons from Natural Gas Extraction into Air.

PubMed

Paulik, L Blair; Donald, Carey E; Smith, Brian W; Tidwell, Lane G; Hobbie, Kevin A; Kincl, Laurel; Haynes, Erin N; Anderson, Kim A

2016-07-19

Natural gas extraction, often referred to as "fracking", has increased rapidly in the United States in recent years. To address potential health impacts, passive air samplers were deployed in a rural community heavily affected by the natural gas boom. Samplers were analyzed for 62 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Results were grouped based on distance from each sampler to the nearest active well. Levels of benzo[a]pyrene, phenanthrene, and carcinogenic potency of PAH mixtures were highest when samplers were closest to active wells. PAH levels closest to natural gas activity were comparable to levels previously reported in rural areas in winter. Sourcing ratios indicated that PAHs were predominantly petrogenic, suggesting that PAH levels were influenced by direct releases from the earth. Quantitative human health risk assessment estimated the excess lifetime cancer risks associated with exposure to the measured PAHs. At sites closest to active wells, the risk estimated for maximum residential exposure was 0.04 in a million, which is below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's acceptable risk level. Overall, risk estimates decreased 30% when comparing results from samplers closest to active wells to those farthest from them. This work suggests that natural gas extraction is contributing PAHs to the air, at levels that would not be expected to increase cancer risk.

Evaluation of the environmental impact of apple pest control strategies using pesticide risk indicators.

PubMed

Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph

2011-10-01

Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Assessment of PM2.5 concentrations on Human Health: A case study of Delhi, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, P.; Mishra, D.

2015-12-01

Connection of air quality with human health is well established in the literature. However the associated health risks due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration is not well known in India, while the assigned mean threshold values are 60 μg/m3 for 24-hour period and 40 μg/m3 for annual period. Both are considered safe concentration limits regarding human health effects. However, the daily and annually concentrations of PM2.5 were observed more than three times of NAAQS in the present study for a year. This study relates the incessant exposure to significant levels of PM2.5 to deleterious health effects, such as heart and lung diseases. The relation between environmental air quality and human health has been studied through different parameters e.g., hazard quotient (HQ), lifetime incremental cancer risk (LICR), and individual risk for different groups of ages in Delhi, the capital city of India. These analysis lead to additional insights into health disparities and may suggest that more rigorous strategies. This may be application to other urban areas across the nation. In this study, we propose to quantify such impacts through estimation of different health risk factors.

Waterborne disease-related risk perceptions in the Sonora River basin, Mexico.

PubMed

Morua, Agustin Robles; Halvorsen, Kathleen E; Mayer, Alex S

2011-05-01

Waterborne disease is estimated to cause about 10% of all diseases worldwide. However, related risk perceptions are not well understood, particularly in the developing world where waterborne disease is an enormous problem. We focus on understanding risk perceptions related to these issues in a region within northern Mexico. Our findings show how waterborne disease problems and solutions are understood in eight small communities along a highly contaminated river system. We found major differences in risk perceptions between health professionals, government officials, and lay citizens. Health professionals believed that a high level of human-waste-related risk existed within the region. Few officials and lay citizens shared this belief. In addition, few officials and lay citizens were aware of poor wastewater-management-related disease outbreaks and water contamination. Finally, aside from health professionals, a few interviewees understood the importance of basic hygiene and water treatment measures that could help to prevent disease. Our results add to the literature on environmentally-related risk perceptions in the developing world. We discuss recommendations for improving future human-wastewater-related risk communication within the region. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Comparison of heavy metal levels of farmed and escaped farmed rainbow trout and health risk assessment associated with their consumption.

PubMed

Varol, Memet; Sünbül, Muhammet Raşit

2017-10-01

In this study, levels of ten metals (arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, lead, and zinc) in muscles of farmed and escaped farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Keban Dam Reservoir (Turkey) were determined. Also, human health risks associated with their consumption were assessed. Of ten metals, only Co and Fe levels in escaped rainbow trout were significantly higher than those in farmed rainbow trout. The metal levels in farmed and escaped rainbow trout were below the maximum permissible limits. The estimated daily intake (EDI) of each metal in both farmed and escaped farmed rainbow trout was much lower than the respective tolerable daily intake (TDI). The target hazard quotient (THQ) values for individual metal and the total THQ values for combined metals were lower than 1 in both farmed and escaped rainbow trout, indicating no health risk for humans. The cancer risk (CR) values estimated for inorganic As in both farmed and escaped rainbow trout indicated low carcinogenic risk to the consumers. According to the maximum allowable monthly consumption limits (CR mm) , adults may safely consume 24 meals of farmed rainbow trout per month or 39 meals of escaped rainbow trout per month, with minimal adverse carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health effects. This study revealed that the risk from consuming farmed and escaped farmed rainbow trout in the Keban Dam Reservoir due to these trace elements is minimal.

Assessing human health response in life cycle assessment using ED10s and DALYs: part 1--Cancer effects.

PubMed

Crettaz, Pierre; Pennington, David; Rhomberg, Lorenz; Brand, Kevin; Jolliet, Olivier

2002-10-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a framework for comparing products according to their total estimated environmental impact, summed over all chemical emissions and activities associated with a product at all stages in its life cycle (from raw material acquisition, manufacturing, use, to final disposal). For each chemical involved, the exposure associated with the mass released into the environment, integrated over time and space, is multiplied by a toxicological measure to estimate the likelihood of effects and their potential consequences. In this article, we explore the use of quantitative methods drawn from conventional single-chemical regulatory risk assessments to create a procedure for the estimation of the cancer effect measure in the impact phase of LCA. The approach is based on the maximum likelihood estimate of the effect dose inducing a 10% response over background, ED10, and default linear low-dose extrapolation using the slope betaED10 (0.1/ED10). The calculated effects may correspond to residual risks below current regulatory compliance requirements that occur over multiple generations and at multiple locations; but at the very least they represent a "using up" of some portion of the human population's ability to accommodate emissions. Preliminary comparisons are performed with existing measures, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA's) slope factor measure q1*. By analyzing bioassay data for 44 chemicals drawn from the EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database, we explore estimating ED10 from more readily available information such as the median tumor dose rate TD50 and the median single lethal dose LD50. Based on the TD50, we then estimate the ED10 for more than 600 chemicals. Differences in potential consequences, or severity, are addressed by combining betaED10 with the measure disability adjusted life years per affected person, DALYp. Most of the variation among chemicals for cancer effects is found to be due to differences in the slope factors (betaED10) ranging from 10(-4) up to 10(4) (risk of cancer/mg/kg-day).

Quantitative risk from fluoroquinolone-resistant Salmonella and Campylobacter due to treatment of dairy heifers with enrofloxacin for bovine respiratory disease.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Vaughn, Michael B; Holtkamp, Derald; Dickson, James; Warnick, Lorin

2010-11-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the human health impact of using fluoroquinolones to treat bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in dairy heifers less than 20 months of age. Specifically, this study quantified the probability of persistent symptoms in humans treated with a fluoroquinolone, for a fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or multidrug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella infection acquired following the consumption of ground beef. To comply with a Food and Drug Administration requirement for approval of enrofloxacin use in dairy heifers, a binomial event tree was constructed following Food and Drug Administration guidance 152. Release was estimated from the slaughter of dairy cattle carrying fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria attributed to the proposed use in dairy heifers. For exposure, human foodborne exposure to Campylobacter, Salmonella, and MDR Salmonella after consumption of ground beef was estimated. The consequence assessment included illness, fluoroquinolone treatment, and persistent symptoms in patients treated with a fluoroquinolone. Using best available data to estimate the parameters and probabilities of each event, stochastic simulation was used to represent uncertainty and variability in many of the parameters. A scenario analysis was performed to evaluate the uncertainty of the following parameters: (1) probability of resistance development in treated animals, (2) portion of illnesses attributable to ground beef, and (3) probability of persistent symptoms in patients 18 years of age and over treated with a fluoroquinolone. The population at risk was restricted to people 18 years of age and over, as fluoroquinolones are not labeled for treatment of gastroenteritis in children. The mean annual increased risk of cases in the U.S. population (18 years of age and over) where compromised fluoroquinolone treatment resulted in persistent symptoms was estimated to be 1 in 61 billion (one case every 293 years) for Salmonella, 1 in 33 billion (one case every 158 years) for MDR Salmonella, and 1 in 2.8 billion (one case every 13 years) for Campylobacter.

Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in Canadian broiler chicken breast from retail to consumption.

PubMed

Smadi, Hanan; Sargeant, Jan M

2013-02-01

The current quantitative risk assessment model followed the framework proposed by the Codex Alimentarius to provide an estimate of the risk of human salmonellosis due to consumption of chicken breasts which were bought from Canadian retail stores and prepared in Canadian domestic kitchens. The model simulated the level of Salmonella contamination on chicken breasts throughout the retail-to-table pathway. The model used Canadian input parameter values, where available, to represent risk of salmonellosis. From retail until consumption, changes in the concentration of Salmonella on each chicken breast were modeled using equations for growth and inactivation. The model predicted an average of 318 cases of salmonellosis per 100,000 consumers per year. Potential reasons for this overestimation were discussed. A sensitivity analysis showed that concentration of Salmonella on chicken breasts at retail and food hygienic practices in private kitchens such as cross-contamination due to not washing cutting boards (or utensils) and hands after handling raw meat along with inadequate cooking contributed most significantly to the risk of human salmonellosis. The outcome from this model emphasizes that responsibility for protection from Salmonella hazard on chicken breasts is a shared responsibility. Data needed for a comprehensive Canadian Salmonella risk assessment were identified for future research. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Long-term fate of depleted uranium at Aberdeen and Yuma Proving Grounds: Human health and ecological risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebinger, M.H.; Beckman, R.J.; Myers, O.B.

1996-09-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and long-term consequences of depleted uranium (DU) in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) and Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) for the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) of the US Army. Specifically, we examined the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to humans and ecosystems caused by exposure to DU at both installations. We developed contaminant transport models of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at APG and terrestrial ecosystems at YPG to assess potential adverse effects from DU exposure. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the initial models showed the portionsmore » of the models that most influenced predicted DU concentrations, and the results of the sensitivity analyses were fundamental tools in designing field sampling campaigns at both installations. Results of uranium (U) isotope analyses of field samples provided data to evaluate the source of U in the environment and the toxicological and radiological doses to different ecosystem components and to humans. Probabilistic doses were estimated from the field data, and DU was identified in several components of the food chain at APG and YPG. Dose estimates from APG data indicated that U or DU uptake was insufficient to cause adverse toxicological or radiological effects. Dose estimates from YPG data indicated that U or DU uptake is insufficient to cause radiological effects in ecosystem components or in humans, but toxicological effects in small mammals (e.g., kangaroo rats and pocket mice) may occur from U or DU ingestion. The results of this study were used to modify environmental radiation monitoring plans at APG and YPG to ensure collection of adequate data for ongoing ecological and human health risk assessments.« less

Risk estimates for CO exposure in man based on behavioral and physiological responses in rodents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, M. K.

1983-01-01

An examination of animal response to CO is studied along with potential models for extrapolating animal test data to humans. The best models for extrapolating data were found to be the Probit and Weibull models.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling of Interstrain Variability in Trichloroethylene Metabolism in the Mouse

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Quantitative estimation of toxicokinetic variability in the human population is a persistent challenge in risk assessment of environmental chemicals. Traditionally, inter-individual differences in the population are accounted for by default assumptions or, in rare cas...

High-resolution sampling and analysis of ambient particulate matter in the Pearl River Delta region of southern China: source apportionment and health risk implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shengzhen; Davy, Perry K.; Huang, Minjuan; Duan, Jingbo; Wang, Xuemei; Fan, Qi; Chang, Ming; Liu, Yiming; Chen, Weihua; Xie, Shanju; Ancelet, Travis; Trompetter, William J.

2018-02-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matter (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM2.5-10) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected at the industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the data set by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources (biomass combustion and marine aerosol). The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) analysis was applied to estimate the source locations using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk of hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Si, Cr, Mn and Ni) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (HQ) of PM2.5 was 2.09, higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk (CR) was 3.37 × 10-3 for PM2.5, which was 3 times higher than the least stringent limit (1.0 × 10-4). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to human health, respectively. In addition, our results show that the industrial coal combustion source is the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study provides new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

Seroprevalence of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus among poultry workers in Jiangsu Province, China: an observational study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Since 2003 to 06 Jan 2012, the number of laboratory confirmed human cases of infection with avian influenza in China was 41 and 27 were fatal. However, the official estimate of the H5N1 case-fatality rate has been described by some as an over estimation since there may be numerous undetected asymptomatic/mild cases of H5N1 infection. This study was conducted to better understand the real infection rate and evaluate the potential risk factors for the zoonotic spread of H5N1 viruses to humans. Methods A seroepidemiological survey was conducted in poultry workers, a group expected to have the highest level of exposure to H5N1-infected birds, from 3 counties with habitat lakes of wildfowl in Jiangsu province, China. Serum specimens were collected from 306 participants for H5N1 serological test. All participants were interviewed to collect information about poultry exposures. Results The overall seropositive rate was 2.61% for H5N1 antibodies. The poultry number was found associated with a 2.39-fold significantly increased subclinical infection risk after adjusted with age and gender. Conclusions Avian-to -human transmission of avian H5N1 virus remained low. Workers associated with raising larger poultry flocks have a higher risk on seroconversion. PMID:22512873

Environmental radon exposure and childhood leukemia.

PubMed

Tong, Jian; Qin, Liqiang; Cao, Yi; Li, Jianxiang; Zhang, Jie; Nie, Jihua; An, Yan

2012-01-01

Despite the fact that animal and human epidemiological studies confirmed a link between radon exposure in homes and increased risk of lung cancer in general population, other types of cancers induced by radon, such as leukemia, have not been consistently demonstrated. The aim of this review was to summarize data published thus far from ecological and case-control studies in exposed populations, taking into account radon dose estimation and evidence of radon-induced genotoxicity, in an effort to clarify the correlation between home radon exposure and incidence of childhood leukemia. Among 12 ecological studies, 11 reported a positive association between radon levels and elevated frequency of childhood leukemia, with 8 being significant. In conjunction with ecological studies, several case-control studies on indoor radon exposure and childhood leukemia were examined, and most investigations indicated a weak association with only a few showing significance. A major source of uncertainty in radon risk assessment is radon dose estimate. Methods for radon exposure measurement in homes of children are one of the factors that affect the risk estimates in a case-control study. The effects of radon-induced genetic damage were studied both in vitro and in vivo using genetic endpoints including chromosomal aberration (CA), micronuclei (MN) formation, gene mutation, and deletions and insertions. By applying a meta-analysis, an increased risk of childhood leukemia induced by indoor radon exposure was noted for overall leukemia and for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Data thus indicated an association between environmental radon exposure and elevated leukemia incidence, but more evidence is required in both human investigations and animal mechanistic research before this assumption may be confirmed with certainty.

Association Between Infant Feeding Modes and Gastroesophageal Reflux: A Repeated Measurement Analysis of the Infant Feeding Practices Study II.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Lin; Soto-Ramírez, Nelís; Zhang, Hongmei; Karmaus, Wilfried

2017-05-01

Gastroesophageal reflux in neonates is frequently reported by parents, potentially motivating changes in infant feeding mode and/or addition of solid food. The authors prospectively analyzed associations between repeated measurement of feeding modes and reflux in infancy. The Infant Feeding Practices Study II, conducted between 2005 and 2007 (2,841 infants), provides data on reflux and feeding modes at nine time points from months 1 to 12. Feeding modes were defined based on direct breastfeeding, feeding of bottled human milk, formula feeding, their combinations, and use of solid food. Repeated measurements were investigated using 1-month delayed models to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Risk ratios of different feeding modes were estimated for reflux; addressing a reverse association, RRs for feeding mode were estimated as responses to prior reflux. Compared to direct breastfeeding, combinations with formula feeding showed a statistically significant risk for reflux (bottled human milk plus formula feeding: RR = 2.19, 95% CI [1.11, 4.33]; formula feeding: RR = 1.95, 95% CI [1.39, 2.74]; and mixed breastfeeding plus formula feeding: RR = 1.59, 95% CI [1.40, 2.42]). Addition of solid food was not protective (RR = 1.21, 95% CI [0.86, 1.70]). Analyses of reverse association (reflux → feeding) showed fewer breastfed infants among those with reflux in the prior month. Any combination of infant feeding with formula seems to be a risk for reflux. Although breastfeeding was protective, mothers with a child with reflux were more likely to wean their child.

Uncertainties in Projecting Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F.; Schimmerling, W.; Peterson, L.; Wilson, J.; Saganti, P.; Dicello, J.

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, CNS risks, and non - cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low -Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of the primary factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objectives, i.e., number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

Impact of Optimized Breastfeeding on the Costs of Necrotizing Enterocolitis in Extremely Low Birthweight Infants.

PubMed

Colaizy, Tarah T; Bartick, Melissa C; Jegier, Briana J; Green, Brittany D; Reinhold, Arnold G; Schaefer, Andrew J; Bogen, Debra L; Schwarz, Eleanor Bimla; Stuebe, Alison M

2016-08-01

To estimate risk of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants as a function of preterm formula (PF) and maternal milk intake and calculate the impact of suboptimal feeding on the incidence and costs of NEC. We used aORs derived from the Glutamine Trial to perform Monte Carlo simulation of a cohort of ELBW infants under current suboptimal feeding practices, compared with a theoretical cohort in which 90% of infants received at least 98% human milk. NEC incidence among infants receiving ≥98% human milk was 1.3%; 11.1% among infants fed only PF; and 8.2% among infants fed a mixed diet (P = .002). In adjusted models, compared with infants fed predominantly human milk, we found an increased risk of NEC associated with exclusive PF (aOR = 12.1, 95% CI 1.5, 94.2), or a mixed diet (aOR 8.7, 95% CI 1.2-65.2). In Monte Carlo simulation, current feeding of ELBW infants was associated with 928 excess NEC cases and 121 excess deaths annually, compared with a model in which 90% of infants received ≥98% human milk. These models estimated an annual cost of suboptimal feeding of ELBW infants of $27.1 million (CI $24 million, $30.4 million) in direct medical costs, $563 655 (CI $476 191, $599 069) in indirect nonmedical costs, and $1.5 billion (CI $1.3 billion, $1.6 billion) in cost attributable to premature death. Among ELBW infants, not being fed predominantly human milk is associated with an increased risk of NEC. Efforts to support milk production by mothers of ELBW infants may prevent infant deaths and reduce costs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multimodel estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, C.; Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Sudo, K.; Lund, M. T.; Emmons, L. K.; Takemura, T.; Bian, H.

2015-12-01

Numerous modeling studies indicate that emissions from one continent influence air quality over others. Reducing air pollutant emissions from one continent can therefore benefit air quality and health on multiple continents. Here, we estimate the impacts of the intercontinental transport of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on premature human mortality by using an ensemble of global chemical transport models coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). We use simulations of 20% reductions of all anthropogenic emissions from 13 regions (North America, Central America, South America, Europe, Northern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East, East Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, Central Asia, and Australia) to calculate their impact on premature mortality within each region and elsewhere in the world. To better understand the impact of potential control strategies, we also analyze premature mortality for global 20% perturbations from five sectors individually: power and industry, ground transport, forest and savannah fires, residential, and others (shipping, aviation, and agriculture). Following previous studies, premature human mortality resulting from each perturbation scenario is calculated using a health impact function based on a log-linear model for O3 and an integrated exposure response model for PM2.5 to estimate relative risk. The spatial distribution of the exposed population (adults aged 25 and over) is obtained from the LandScan 2011 Global Population Dataset. Baseline mortality rates for chronic respiratory disease, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer are estimated from the GBD 2010 country-level mortality dataset for the exposed population. Model results are regridded from each model's original grid to a common 0.5°x0.5° grid used to estimate mortality. We perform uncertainty analysis and evaluate the sensitivity of mortality estimates to a low-concentration threshold for ozone and a log-linear risk model for PM2.5. Our results allow us to identify the contributions of emissions from different source regions and sectors to air pollutant concentrations and premature human mortality in each region.

NASA space cancer risk model-2014: Uncertainties due to qualitative differences in biological effects of HZE particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — comprised of protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei are an important limitation to long duration space travel. HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation leading to large uncertainties in predicting risks to humans. Our NASA Space Cancer Risk Model-2012 (NSCR-2012) for estimating lifetime cancer risks from space radiation included several new features compared to earlier models from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) used at NASA. New features of NSCR-2012 included the introduction of NASA defined radiation quality factors based on track structure concepts, a Bayesian analysis of the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) and its uncertainty, and the use of a never-smoker population to represent astronauts. However, NSCR-2012 did not include estimates of the role of qualitative differences between HZE particles and low LET radiation. In this report we discuss evidence for non-targeted effects increasing cancer risks at space relevant HZE particle absorbed doses in tissue (<0.2 Gy), and for increased tumor lethality due to the propensity for higher rates of metastatic tumors from high LET radiation suggested by animal experiments. The NSCR-2014 model considers how these qualitative differences modify the overall probability distribution functions (PDF) for cancer mortality risk estimates from space radiation. Predictions of NSCR-2014 for International Space Station missions and Mars exploration will be described, and compared to those of our earlier NSCR-2012 model.

Assessing the human health risk for aluminium, zinc and lead in outdoor dusts collected in recreational sites used by children at an industrial area in the western part of the Bassin Minier de Provence, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, A. P.; Patinha, C.; Noack, Y.; Robert, S.; Dias, A. C.; Ferreira da Silva, E.

2014-11-01

The Western part of the “Bassin Minier de Provence”, a former coal mining area, is still occupied by old polluting industries such as a coal-fired power plant and an alumina factory. In 2011 a preliminary outdoor dust survey was carried out in the area as the first step to an exposure and health risk assessment study. Dust samples were taken at 19 sites distributed across the study area, depending on the location of recreational areas used by children to play outdoors. Pseudo-total concentrations of Al, Zn and Pb were determined by ICP-MS and bioaccessible concentrations were estimated using the Unified BARGE Method. Exposure was calculated according to a scenario evaluation approach for dust ingestion and dermal contact routes. Estimation of health risk for exposure to Al, Zn and Pb in outdoor dust was based on the summation of individual risks for the oral and dermal routes. Results show that Al occurs in very high concentrations but mainly innon-bioaccessible forms, especially near the alumina plant. Zinc and Pb occur in low-average levels but mainly in bioaccessible forms. The estimated potential risk decreases according to Pb ≫ Al > Zn and is lower for the ingestion route. The preliminary results presented in this study indicate that, for Al and Zn, the outdoor dusts of the BMP represent an acceptable risk to children's health. However, the estimated hazard quotients suggest that there is some health risk associated to environmental Pb.

Human brucellosis in northwest Ecuador: typifying Brucella spp., seroprevalence, and associated risk factors.

PubMed

Ron-Román, Jorge; Ron-Garrido, Lenin; Abatih, Emmanuel; Celi-Erazo, Maritza; Vizcaíno-Ordóñez, Laura; Calva-Pacheco, Jaime; González-Andrade, Pablo; Berkvens, Dirk; Benítez-Ortíz, Washington; Brandt, Jef; Fretin, David; Saegerman, Claude

2014-02-01

Human brucellosis in Ecuador is underreported and based only on passive surveillance. Since 2008, brucellosis was removed from the list of communicable diseases in the country. Until now, the true human brucellosis picture has not yet been determined. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of the disease, identify risk factors associated with brucellosis seropositivity in humans, and isolate circulating strains of Brucella spp. in the northwestern part of Ecuador. Between 2006 and 2008, a large transect survey was conducted, based on blood sampling of people from the northwestern part of Ecuador (n=3733) together with an epidemiological inquiry. On the basis of three diagnostic tests used in parallel, the overall seroprevalence was estimated as 1.88% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.48-2.38). Based on a multivariable random effects logistic regression analysis, the main risk factors associated with human brucellosis seropositivity were contact with livestock (odds ratio [OR]=3.0; CI 1.25-7.08), consumption of fetus and placenta (OR=2.5; CI 1.18-5.22), and involvement in activities at risk for brucellosis infection (OR=1.8; CI 1.00-3.35). Noticeable variation in brucellosis seropositivity among humans within cantons was observed. The circulating strain was Brucella abortus biotype 4. This study emphasized that contact with livestock, consumption of fetus and placenta, and occupational hazard group were all significant risk factors for the transmission of brucellosis among individuals in the northwestern part of Ecuador. Alongside encouraging the launching of educational campaigns against brucellosis, especially in rural areas where 36% of the population lives, controlling this zoonotic disease in animals will directly benefit its prevention in humans, especially because there is no safe and efficacious vaccine against brucellosis in humans.

Standardized morbidity ratio for leptospirosis mapping in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awang, Aznida Che; Samat, Nor Azah

2017-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonotic disease that affects human health in many parts of the world including Malaysia. Leptospirosis is a disease caused by the infection of pathogenic Leptospira genus called Spirochaetes. Leptospirosis can be transmitted directly or indirectly from rats to human. The human infection is usually caused by human contact with urine or tissues of infected animal. This disease can be spread through mucus membrane such as mouth, nose and eyes, ingestion of contaminated food and water and also exposed injured skin to contaminated water or soil. There is still no vaccine currently available for the prevention or treatment of leptospirosis disease but this disease can be treated if it is diagnosed early. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for leptospirosis disease based initially on the most common statistic used in the study of disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR). We then apply SMR to leptospirosis data obtained in Malaysia. The results show that the states of Melaka have very high risk areas. The states of Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan are identified as high risk areas. The states of Perak, Perlis, Sabah and Sarawak showed medium risk areas. This is followed by low risk by other states except Pahang, Johor and Labuan with very low risk areas. In conclusion, SMR method is the best method for mapping leptospirosis because by referring to the relative risk maps, the states that deserve closer look and disease prevention can be identified.

Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

PubMed Central

Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

2015-01-01

Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

Toxicokinetic Model Development for the Insensitive Munitions Component 2,4-Dinitroanisole.

PubMed

Sweeney, Lisa M; Goodwin, Michelle R; Hulgan, Angela D; Gut, Chester P; Bannon, Desmond I

2015-01-01

The Armed Forces are developing new explosives that are less susceptible to unintentional detonation (insensitive munitions [IMX]). 2,4-Dinitroanisole (DNAN) is a component of IMX. Toxicokinetic data for DNAN are required to support interpretation of toxicology studies and refinement of dose estimates for human risk assessment. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed by gavage (5, 20, or 80 mg DNAN/kg), and blood and tissue samples were analyzed to determine the levels of DNAN and its metabolite 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP). These data and data from the literature were used to develop preliminary physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. The model simulations indicated saturable metabolism of DNAN in rats at higher tested doses. The PBPK model was extrapolated to estimate the toxicokinetics of DNAN and DNP in humans, allowing the estimation of human-equivalent no-effect levels of DNAN exposure from no-observed adverse effect levels determined in laboratory animals, which may guide the selection of exposure limits for DNAN. © The Author(s) 2015.

Human influence on California fire regimes.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2007-07-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.

Human influence on California fire regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

2007-01-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Domestic animal hosts strongly influence human-feeding rates of the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans in Argentina.

PubMed

Gürtler, Ricardo E; Cecere, María C; Vázquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M; Ceballos, Leonardo A; Gurevitz, Juan M; Fernández, María Del Pilar; Kitron, Uriel; Cohen, Joel E

2014-01-01

The host species composition in a household and their relative availability affect the host-feeding choices of blood-sucking insects and parasite transmission risks. We investigated four hypotheses regarding factors that affect blood-feeding rates, proportion of human-fed bugs (human blood index), and daily human-feeding rates of Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease. A cross-sectional survey collected triatomines in human sleeping quarters (domiciles) of 49 of 270 rural houses in northwestern Argentina. We developed an improved way of estimating the human-feeding rate of domestic T. infestans populations. We fitted generalized linear mixed-effects models to a global model with six explanatory variables (chicken blood index, dog blood index, bug stage, numbers of human residents, bug abundance, and maximum temperature during the night preceding bug catch) and three response variables (daily blood-feeding rate, human blood index, and daily human-feeding rate). Coefficients were estimated via multimodel inference with model averaging. Median blood-feeding intervals per late-stage bug were 4.1 days, with large variations among households. The main bloodmeal sources were humans (68%), chickens (22%), and dogs (9%). Blood-feeding rates decreased with increases in the chicken blood index. Both the human blood index and daily human-feeding rate decreased substantially with increasing proportions of chicken- or dog-fed bugs, or the presence of chickens indoors. Improved calculations estimated the mean daily human-feeding rate per late-stage bug at 0.231 (95% confidence interval, 0.157-0.305). Based on the changing availability of chickens in domiciles during spring-summer and the much larger infectivity of dogs compared with humans, we infer that the net effects of chickens in the presence of transmission-competent hosts may be more adequately described by zoopotentiation than by zooprophylaxis. Domestic animals in domiciles profoundly affect the host-feeding choices, human-vector contact rates and parasite transmission predicted by a model based on these estimates.

Microbial Health Risks Associated with Exposure to Stormwater in a Water Plaza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sales-Ortells, Helena; Medema, Gertjan

2015-04-01

Climate change scenarios predict an increase of intense rainfall events in summer in Western Europe. Current urban drainage systems cannot cope with such intense precipitation events. Cities are constructing local stormwater storage facilities to prevent pluvial flooding. Combining storage with other functions, such as recreation, may lead to exposure to contaminants. This study assessed the microbial quality of rainwater collected in a water plaza in Rotterdam (The Netherlands) and the health risks associated with recreational exposure. The water plaza collects street run-off, diverges first flush to the sewer system and stores the rest of the run-off in the plaza as open water. A rain simulation experiment was conducted using drinking water from fire hydrants. The water flowed over the street pavement into the street gutters and into the square. Samples were collected from the first flush diverted water and from two different levels of the water plaza at different points in time. Campylobacter spp., Cryptosporidium, and Legionella pneumophila were the pathogens investigated, using quantitative PCR. Escherichia coli was quantified with culture methods to obtain information on faecal contamination. Microbial source tracking tools (human Bacteroides, avian Helicobacter and canine mitochondrial DNA, all analysed with quantitative PCR) were used to determine the origin (human, animal) of the intestinal pathogens. To estimate the health risks for children playing in the water plaza after a rain event, a quantitative microbial risk assessment model was built. The volume of water ingested was obtained from literature on similar locations (flooded streets). Published dose-response models were used to calculate the risk per event. Exposure frequency was estimated using weather data (precipitation events). E. coli concentrations were below the level for excellent bathing water in the EU Bathing Water Directive. Cryptosporidium was not found in any sample. Campylobacter spp. was found in all samples, with higher concentrations in samples that contained human Bacteroides than in samples with contamination from birds and dogs (15 vs 3.7 gc (genomic copies)/100mL). In both cases, the estimated disease risk associated with Campylobacter and recreational exposure to the water plaza were higher than the Dutch national incidence. This indicates that the health risk associated with recreational exposure to the water plaza is significant. L. pneumophila was found only in two out of ten pond samples. Legionnaire's disease risks were lower than the Dutch national incidence. However,higher health risks are expected in the future because of increased frequency of rain events. Presence of human Bacteroides indicates possible cross-connections with the combined sewer system that should be identified and removed to reduce the gastrointestinal disease risks. Other measures include cleaning/disinfection of the water plaza after extreme precipitation; increasing the capacity of the first flush pump; regular cleaning of the catchment area and gutters; informing the neighbours of the importance of keeping the streets clean of pets depositions; and informing the public about the health risks derived from recreational uses of the water plaza after rain events. Finally, monitoring the water quality during real rain events is recommended to better characterize the health risks.

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic forecast alerts under COMESEP alert system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbovic, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Khodia, Yamini; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-04-01

An automated space weather alert system has been developed under the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: http://comesep.aeronomy.be) to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. COMESEP alert system uses automated detection tool CACTus to detect potentially threatening CMEs, drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival and CME geo-effectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. Geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with COMESEP alert system based on a study of geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is done by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of DBM and CGFT (self standing tools available at Hvar Observatory website: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results implicate that the success rate of the forecast is higher with human intervention and using more advanced tools. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability".

Deriving a no expected sensitization induction level for fragrance ingredients without animal testing: An integrated approach applied to specific case studies.

PubMed

Natsch, Andreas; Emter, Roger; Haupt, Tina; Ellis, Graham

2018-06-01

Cosmetic regulations prohibit animal testing for the purpose of safety assessment and recent REACH guidance states that the local lymph node assay (LLNA) in mice shall only be conducted if in vitro data cannot give sufficient information for classification and labelling. However, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients requires a NESIL, a dose not expected to cause induction of skin sensitization in humans. In absence of human data, this is derived from the LLNA and it remains a key challenge for risk assessors to derive this value from non-animal data. Here we present a workflow using structural information, reactivity data and KeratinoSens results to predict a LLNA result as a point of departure. Specific additional tests (metabolic activation, complementary reactivity tests) are applied in selected cases depending on the chemical domain of a molecule. Finally, in vitro and in vivo data on close analogues are used to estimate uncertainty of the prediction in the specific chemical domain. This approach was applied to three molecules which were subsequently tested in the LLNA and 22 molecules with available and sometimes discordant human and LLNA data. Four additional case studies illustrate how this approach is being applied to recently developed molecules in the absence of animal data. Estimation of uncertainty and how this can be applied to determine a final NESIL for risk assessment is discussed. We conclude that, in the data-rich domain of fragrance ingredients, sensitization risk assessment without animal testing is possible in most cases by this integrated approach.

Differential Decay of Human Faecal Bacteroides in Marine and Freshwater

EPA Science Inventory

Gene sequences from Bacteroides and relatives are being considered for the enumeration of aquatic fecal contamination and estimation of public health risk. To interpret these data, it is necessary to understand the decay of molecular and cultivated indicators and pathogens in en...

Estimating of primary etiologic agents in recreational freshwaters impacted by human sources of faecal contamination

EPA Science Inventory

Epidemiology studies of recreational waters have demonstrated that swimmers exposed to faecally-contaminated recreational waters are at risk of excess gastrointestinal illness. Epidemiology studies provide valuable information on the nature and extent of health effects, the magni...

Relative bioavailability of arsenic contaminated soils in a mouse model

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure to As contaminated soils compels extensive soil cleanups so that human health risks are minimized. In order to improve exposure estimates and potentially reduce remediation costs, determination of the bioavailability of As in soils is needed. The objective of this study ...

Human Electro-Muscular Incapacitation (HEMI): Physiological Modeling Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

The overall goal of this research is to develop a product that estimates the risks of rhabdomyolysis, cardiovascular, and respiratory effects from a...HEMI stimulus under different use scenarios or with different device characteristics. The research and development work outlined in this report cover

AN INFORMATIC APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ECOLOGICAL RISKS POSED BY PHARMACEUTICAL USE

EPA Science Inventory

Pharmaceuticals administered to humans and other animals are often excreted from treated organisms as intact drug or as active metabolites. Some of these active materials have been shown to make their way into the environment. However, the environmental concentrations of the vast...

Simulating Hepatic Lesions as Virtual Cellular Systems

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver) project is aimed at reducing the uncertainty in estimating the risk of toxic outcomes in humans by simulating the dose-dependent effects of environmental chemicals in silico. The v-Liver embodies an emerging field of research in computational ti...

Total Mercury in Squalid Callista Megapitaria squalida from the SW Gulf of California, Mexico: Tissue Distribution and Human Health Risk.

PubMed

Romo-Piñera, Abril K; Escobar-Sánchez, Ofelia; Ruelas-Inzunza, Jorge; Frías-Espericueta, Martín G

2018-03-01

We evaluated the total Hg concentration in different tissues of squalid callista Megapitaria squalida in order to measure Hg distribution in tissue and to estimate human health risk. Samples were obtained by free diving in the SW Gulf of California, Mexico. Concentrations are given on a wet weight basis. A total of 89 squalid callista specimens were obtained, presenting an average Hg concentration of 0.07 ± 0.04 µg g -1 . There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) in Hg concentration between tissues (visceral mass = 0.09 ± 0.08 µg g -1 ; mantle = 0.06 ± 0.07 µg g -1 ; muscle = 0.06 ± 0.04 µg g -1 ). The low Hg values found in squalid callista and its low risk quotient (HQ = 0.03) suggest that the consumption of squalid callista does not represent a human health risk. However, HQ calculated using MeHg was > 1, it which could indicate a potential risk related to consumption of clams.

Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understandmore » from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.« less

Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

PubMed Central

Douple, Evan B.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M.; Preston, Dale L.; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E.

2014-01-01

For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200 000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

Scorched Earth: how will changes in the strength of the vegetation sink to ozone deposition affect human health and ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emberson, L. D.; Kitwiroon, N.; Beevers, S.; Büker, P.; Cinderby, S.

2013-07-01

This study investigates the effect of ozone (O3) deposition on ground level O3 concentrations and subsequent human health and ecosystem risk under hot summer "heat wave" type meteorological events. Under such conditions, extended drought can effectively "turn off" the O3 vegetation sink leading to a substantial increase in ground level O3 concentrations. Two models that have been used for human health (the CMAQ chemical transport model) and ecosystem (the DO3SE O3 deposition model) risk assessment are combined to provide a powerful policy tool capable of novel integrated assessments of O3 risk using methods endorsed by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. This study investigates 2006, a particularly hot and dry year during which a heat wave occurred over the summer across much of the UK and Europe. To understand the influence of variable O3 dry deposition three different simulations were investigated during June and July: (i) actual conditions in 2006, (ii) conditions that assume a perfect vegetation sink for O3 deposition and (iii) conditions that assume an extended drought period that reduces the vegetation sink to a minimum. The risks of O3 to human health, assessed by estimating the number of days during which running 8 h mean O3 concentrations exceeded 100 μg m-3, show that on average across the UK, there is a difference of 16 days exceedance of the threshold between the perfect sink and drought conditions. These average results hide local variation with exceedances between these two scenarios reaching as high as 20 days in the East Midlands and eastern UK. Estimates of acute exposure effects show that O3 removed from the atmosphere through dry deposition during the June and July period would have been responsible for approximately 460 premature deaths. Conversely, reduced O3 dry deposition will decrease the amount of O3 taken up by vegetation and, according to flux-based assessments of vegetation damage, will lead to a reduction in the impact of O3 on vegetation across the UK. The new CMAQ-DO3SE model was evaluated by comparing observation vs. modelled estimates of various health related metrics with data from both urban and rural sites across the UK; although these comparisons showed reasonable agreement there were some biases in the model predictions with attributable deaths at urban sites being over predicted by a small margin, the converse was true for rural sites. The study emphasises the importance of accurate estimates of O3 deposition both for human health and ecosystem risk assessments. Extended periods of drought and heat wave type conditions are likely to occur with more frequency in coming decades, therefore understanding the importance of these effects will be crucial to inform the development of appropriate national and international policy to mitigate against the worst consequences of this air pollutant.

Invited review: what do we know about the effects of spaceflight on bone?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. T.

2000-01-01

This review of the peer-reviewed literature focuses on the effects of spaceflight on bone. Studies performed in humans and laboratory animals have revealed abnormalities in bone and mineral metabolism that suggest that long-duration spaceflight will have detrimental effects on the skeleton. However, because of large gaps in our knowledge, it is not presently possible to estimate the magnitude of the health risk, individual variations in risk, effective countermeasures, or mechanism(s) of action. Specific recommendations are made for future research to ascertain risk and develop appropriate countermeasures.

Mobile phones and malaria: modeling human and parasite travel

PubMed Central

Buckee, Caroline O.; Wesolowski, Amy; Eagle, Nathan; Hansen, Elsa; Snow, Robert W.

2013-01-01

Human mobility plays an important role in the dissemination of malaria parasites between regions of variable transmission intensity. Asymptomatic individuals can unknowingly carry parasites to regions where mosquito vectors are available, for example, undermining control programs and contributing to transmission when they travel. Understanding how parasites are imported between regions in this way is therefore an important goal for elimination planning and the control of transmission, and would enable control programs to target the principal sources of malaria. Measuring human mobility has traditionally been difficult to do on a population scale, but the widespread adoption of mobile phones in low-income settings presents a unique opportunity to directly measure human movements that are relevant to the spread of malaria. Here, we discuss the opportunities for measuring human mobility using data from mobile phones, as well as some of the issues associated with combining mobility estimates with malaria infection risk maps to meaningfully estimate routes of parasite importation. PMID:23478045

Cellular and molecular alterations in human epithelial cells transformed by high let radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hei, T. K.; Piao, C. Q.; Sutter, T.; Willey, J. C.; Suzuki, K.

An understanding of the radiobiological effects of high LET radiation is essential for human risk estimation and radiation protection. In the present study, we show that a single, 30 cGy dose of 150 keV/mum ^4He ions can malignantly transform human papillomavirus immortalized human bronchial epithelial [BEP2D] cells. Transformed cells produce progressively growing tumors in nude mice. The transformation frequency by the single dose of alpha particles is estimated to be approximately 4 x 10^-7. Based on the average cross-sectional area of BEP2D cells, it can be calculated that a mean traversal of 1.4 particles per cell is sufficient to induce tumorigenic conversion of these cells 3 to 4 months post-irradiation. Tumorigenic BEP2D cells overexpress mutated p53 tumor suppressor oncoproteins in addition to the cell cycle control gene cyclin D1 and D2. This model provides an opportunity to study the cellular and molecular changes at the various stages in radiation carcinogenesis involving human cells.

Risk and resilience in the late glacial: A case study from the western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, C. Michael; Aura Tortosa, J. Emili; Garcia-Puchol, Oreto; Riel-Salvatore, Julien G.; Gauthier, Nicolas; Vadillo Conesa, Margarita; Pothier Bouchard, Geneviève

2018-03-01

The period spanning the Last Glacial Maximum through early Holocene encompasses dramatic and rapid environmental changes that offered both increased risk and new opportunities to human populations of the Mediterranean zone. The regional effects of global climate change varied spatially with latitude, topography, and distance from a shifting coastline; and human adaptations to these changes played out at these regional scales. To better understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change and human social-ecological-technological systems (or SETS) during the transition from full glacial to interglacial, we carried out a meta-analysis of archaeological and paleoenvironmental datasets across the western Mediterranean region. We compiled information on prehistoric technology, land-use, and hunting strategies from 291 archaeological assemblages, recovered from 122 sites extending from southern Spain, through Mediterranean France, to northern and peninsular Italy, as well as 2,386 radiocarbon dates from across this region. We combine these data on human ecological dynamics with paleoenvironmental information derived from global climate models, proxy data, and estimates of coastlines modeled from sea level estimates and digital terrain. The LGM represents an ecologically predictable period for over much of the western Mediterranean, while the remainder of the Pleistocene was increasingly unpredictable, making it a period of increased ecological risk for hunter-gatherers. In response to increasing spatial and temporal uncertainty, hunter-gatherers reorganized different constituents of their SETS, allowing regional populations to adapt to these conditions up to a point. Beyond this threshold, rapid environmental change resulted in significant demographic change in Mediterranean hunter-gatherer populations.

Ryegrass cv. Lema and guava cv. Paluma biomonitoring suitability for estimating nutritional contamination risks under seasonal climate in Southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z S; Domingos, Marisa

2015-08-01

The risks posed by nutrient deposition due to air pollution on ecosystems and their respective services to human beings can be appropriately estimated by bioindicator plants when they are well acclimated to the study region environmental conditions. This assumption encouraged us to comparatively evaluate the accumulation potential of ryegrass cv. Lema and guava cv. Paluma macro and micronutrients. We also indicated the most appropriate species for biomonitoring nutrient contamination risks in tropical areas of Southeastern Brazil, which are characterized by marked dry and wet seasons and complex mixtures of air pollutants from different sources (industries, vehicle traffic and agriculture). The study was conducted in 14 sites with different neighboring land uses, within the Metropolitan Region of Campinas, central-eastern region of São Paulo State. The exposure experiments with ryegrass and guava were consecutively repeated 40 (28 days each) and 12 (84 days each) times, respectively, from Oct/2010 to Sept/2013. Macro and micronutrients were analyzed and background concentrations and enrichment ratios (ER) were estimated to classify the contamination risk within the study region. Significantly higher ER suggested that ryegrass were the most appropriate accumulator species for N, S, Mg, Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn deposition and guava for K, Ca, P and B deposition. Based on these biomonitoring adjustments, we concluded that the nutrient deposition was spatially homogeneous in the study area, but clear seasonality in the contamination risk by nutritional inputs was evidenced. Significantly higher contamination risk by S, Fe, K and B occurred during the dry season and enhanced contamination risk by Mn, Cu and Zn were highlighted during the wet season. Distinctly high contamination risk was estimated for S, Fe and Mn in several exposure experiments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Integrating human and ecological risk assessment: application to the cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom problem.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Munns, Wayne R

2008-01-01

Environmental and public health policy continues to evolve in response to new and complex social, economic and environmental drivers. Globalization and centralization of commerce, evolving patterns of land use (e.g., urbanization, deforestation), and technological advances in such areas as manufacturing and development of genetically modified foods have created new and complex classes of stressors and risks (e.g., climate change, emergent and opportunist disease, sprawl, genomic change). In recognition of these changes, environmental risk assessment and its use are changing from stressor-endpoint specific assessments used in command and control types of decisions to an integrated approach for application in community-based decisions. As a result, the process of risk assessment and supporting risk analyses are evolving to characterize the human-environment relationship. Integrating risk paradigms combine the process of risk estimation for humans, biota, and natural resources into one assessment to improve the information used in environmental decisions (Suter et al. 2003b). A benefit to this approach includes a broader, system-wide evaluation that considers the interacting effects of stressors on humans and the environment, as well the interactions between these entities. To improve our understanding of the linkages within complex systems, risk assessors will need to rely on a suite of techniques for conducting rigorous analyses characterizing the exposure and effects relationships between stressors and biological receptors. Many of the analytical techniques routinely employed are narrowly focused and unable to address the complexities of an integrated assessment. In this paper, we describe an approach to integrated risk assessment, and discuss qualitative community modeling and Probabilistic Relational Modeling techniques that address these limitations and evaluate their potential for use in an integrated risk assessment of cyanobacteria.

Toxicity of cadmium and its health risks from leafy vegetable consumption.

PubMed

Huang, Yingying; He, Chuntao; Shen, Chuang; Guo, Jingjie; Mubeen, Samavia; Yuan, Jiangang; Yang, Zhongyi

2017-04-19

Cadmium (Cd) is a highly toxic heavy metal and has spread widely in the environment in recent decades. This review summarizes current knowledge about Cd contamination of leafy vegetables, its toxicity, exposure, health risks, and approaches to reducing its toxicity in humans. Leafy vegetable consumption has been identified as a dominant exposure pathway of Cd in the human body. An overview of Cd pollution in leafy vegetables as well as the main sources of Cd is given. Notable estimated daily intakes and health risks of Cd exposure through vegetable consumption for humans are revealed in occupational exposure areas and even in some reference areas. Vegetable consumption is one of the most significant sources of exposure to Cd, particularly in occupational exposure regions. Therefore, numerous approaches have been developed to minimize the accumulation of Cd in leafy vegetables, among which the breeding of Cd pollution-safe cultivars is one of the most effective tools. Furthermore, dietary supplements from leafy vegetables perform positive roles in alleviating Cd toxicity in humans with regard to the effects of essential mineral elements, vitamins and phytochemicals taken into the human body via leafy vegetable consumption.

Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan

PubMed Central

Wesolowski, Amy; Qureshi, Taimur; Boni, Maciej F.; Sundsøy, Pål Roe; Johansson, Michael A.; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Engø-Monsen, Kenth; Buckee, Caroline O.

2015-01-01

The recent emergence of dengue viruses into new susceptible human populations throughout Asia and the Middle East, driven in part by human travel on both local and global scales, represents a significant global health risk, particularly in areas with changing climatic suitability for the mosquito vector. In Pakistan, dengue has been endemic for decades in the southern port city of Karachi, but large epidemics in the northeast have emerged only since 2011. Pakistan is therefore representative of many countries on the verge of countrywide endemic dengue transmission, where prevention, surveillance, and preparedness are key priorities in previously dengue-free regions. We analyze spatially explicit dengue case data from a large outbreak in Pakistan in 2013 and compare the dynamics of the epidemic to an epidemiological model of dengue virus transmission based on climate and mobility data from ∼40 million mobile phone subscribers. We find that mobile phone-based mobility estimates predict the geographic spread and timing of epidemics in both recently epidemic and emerging locations. We combine transmission suitability maps with estimates of seasonal dengue virus importation to generate fine-scale dynamic risk maps with direct application to dengue containment and epidemic preparedness. PMID:26351662

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

PubMed

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision-making process for chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annette Bunge: developing the principles in percutaneous absorption using chemical engineering principles.

PubMed

Stinchcomb, A L

2013-01-01

Annette Bunge and her research group have had the central theme of mathematically modeling the dermal absorption process. Most of the research focus has been on estimating dermal absorption for the purpose of risk assessment, for exposure scenarios in the environment and in the occupational setting. Her work is the basis for the United States Environmental Protection Agency's estimations for dermal absorption from contaminated water. It is also the basis of the dermal absorption estimates used in determining if chemicals should be assigned a 'skin notation' for potential systemic toxicity following occupational skin exposure. The work is truly translational in that it started with mathematical theory, is validated with preclinical and human experiments, and then is used in guidelines to protect human health. Her valued research has also extended into the topical drug bioavailability and bioequivalence assessment field.

[Prevalence of non-vaccinable high risk genotypes of human papillomavirus in the Early Detection of Cervical Cancer Program in Cantabria].

PubMed

Paz-Zulueta, María; Fernández-Feito, Ana; Amparán Ruiz, Marina; Azofra Olave, Asunción; Martín Seco, Yolanda; Ojugas Zabala, Sonia; Otero García, Aurora; Royano Rasines, Carmen; Sarabia-Lavín, Raquel; Torres Manrique, Blanca; Santibáñez Margüello, Miguel

2016-01-01

To estimate the prevalence of infection with non-vaccinable high risk genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV). Cross-sectional study. Seven randomly selected health centres in Cantabria (Northern Spain). All women with an evaluable vaginal smear (n=3,359) between 2010 and 2011. The variables collected were cytological diagnosis, PCR results, and family planning method. The vaginal smear results were classified with the Bethesda system. The classification by Muñoz et al. was used for typing as oncogenic risk HPV. Proportions and odds ratio (OR) were estimated with corresponding confidence intervals at 95% (95% CI). The prevalence of HPV infection was 2.71% (95% CI: 2.15 to 3.27). The prevalence of high oncogenic risk HPV genotypes was 2.26%; (95% CI: 1.75 to 2.78). The most frequent genotype was 16 (28.89%). More than half of the women were positive for one of the non-vaccinable high risk genotypes: 51 (18.89%) and 58 (13.33%) and 68 (12.22%) or 31 (11.11%). At least two non-vaccinable high-risk genotypes co-existed in 23.33% of women. Younger women (≤30 years) had twice the risk of any HPV infection: OR 2.01 (95% CI: 1.02 to 3.96); and were twice as likely to use condoms compared to hormonal contraceptives, OR 2.09 (95% CI: 1.64 to 2.67). According to the high percentage of non-vaccinable high oncogenic risk HPV types, there should be a re-think of the prevention strategy in the population, who may have a false sense of protection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

2016-09-01

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

Bacteria, viruses, and parasites in an intermittent stream protected from and exposed to pasturing cattle: prevalence, densities, and quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Wilkes, G; Brassard, J; Edge, T A; Gannon, V; Jokinen, C C; Jones, T H; Neumann, N; Pintar, K D M; Ruecker, N; Schmidt, P J; Sunohara, M; Topp, E; Lapen, D R

2013-10-15

Over 3500 individual water samples, for 131 sampling times, targeting waterborne pathogens/fecal indicator bacteria were collected during a 7-year period from 4 sites along an intermittent stream running through a small livestock pasture system with and without cattle access-to-stream restriction measures. The study assessed the impact of cattle pasturing/riparian zone protection on: pathogen (bacterial, viral, parasite) occurrence, concentrations of fecal indicators, and quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA) of the risk of Cryptosporidium, Giardia and Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection in humans. Methodologies were developed to compute QMRA mean risks on the basis of water samples exhibiting potentially human infectious Cryptosporidium and E. coli based on genotyping Crytosporidium, and E. coli O157:H7 presence/absence information paired with enumerated E. coli. All Giardia spp. were considered infectious. No significant pasturing treatment effects were observed among pathogens, with the exception of Campylobacter spp. and E. coli O157:H7. Campylobacter spp. prevalence significantly decreased downstream through pasture treatments and E. coli O157:H7 was observed in a few instances in the middle of the unrestricted pasture. Densities of total coliform, fecal coliform, and E. coli reduced significantly downstream in the restricted pasture system, but not in the unrestricted system. Seasonal and flow conditions were associated with greater indicator bacteria densities, especially in the summer. Norovirus GII was detected at rates of 7-22% of samples for all monitoring sites, and rotavirus in 0-7% of samples for all monitoring sites; pasture treatment trends were not evident, however. Seasonal and stream flow variables (and their interactions) were relatively more important than pasture treatments for initially stratifying pathogen occurrence and higher fecal indicator bacteria densities. Significant positive associations among fecal indicator bacteria and Campylobacter spp. detection were observed. For QMRA, adjusting for the proportion of Cryptosporidium spp. detected that are infectious for humans reduces downstream risk estimates by roughly one order of magnitude. Using QMRA in this manner provides a more refined estimate of beneficial management practice effects on pathogen exposure risks to humans. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wind speed perception and risk.

PubMed

Agdas, Duzgun; Webster, Gregory D; Masters, Forrest J

2012-01-01

How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human-wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual-perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

Analysis of Air Toxics From NOAA WP-3 Aircraft Measurements During the TexAQS 2006 Campaign: Comparison With Emission Inventories and Additive Inhalation Risk Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Negro, L. A.; Warneke, C.; de Gouw, J. A.; Atlas, E.; Lueb, R.; Zhu, X.; Pope, L.; Schauffler, S.; Hendershot, R.; Washenfelder, R.; Fried, A.; Richter, D.; Walega, J. G.; Weibring, P.

2007-12-01

Benzene and nine other air toxics classified as human carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) were measured from the NOAA WP-3 aircraft during the TexAQS 2006 campaign. In-situ measurements of benzene, measured with a PTR-MS instrument, are used to estimate emission fluxes for comparison with point source emission inventories developed by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Mean and median mixing ratios for benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, 1,3-butadiene, carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, 1,2-dichloroethane, dibromoethane, dichloromethane, and vinyl chloride, encountered over the city of Houston during the campaign, are combined with inhalation unit risk factor values developed by the California Environmental Protection Agency and the United States Environmental Protection Agency to estimate the additive inhalation risk factor. This additive risk factor represents the risk associated with lifetime (70 year) exposure at the levels measured and should not be used as an absolute indicator of risk to individuals. However, the results are useful for assessments of changing relative risk over time, and for identifying dominant contributions to the overall air toxic risk.

Assessing the transfer of risk due to transportation of agricultural products.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2015-02-01

Health risk assessment (HRA) is the process used to estimate adverse health effects on humans. The importance and sensitivity of food chains to HRA have been observed, but the impact of the transportation of food has generally been ignored. This study developed an exposure assessment to demonstrate the significance of the transportation of agricultural products in HRA. The associated case study estimated the health risks derived from various sources of arsenic emissions in Taiwan. Two assessment scenarios, self-sufficiency and transportation of agricultural products, were compared to calculate risk transfer ratios that show the impact of agriculture transportation. The risk transfer ratios found by the study range from 0.22 to 42.10, indicating that the quantity of transportation of agricultural products is the critical factor. High air deposition and high agricultural production are the two main contributors to the effect of the transportation of agricultural products on HRA. Risk reduction measures could be applied to high-pollution areas as well as to areas with high agricultural productivity to reduce ingestion risks to residents. Certain areas that are sensitive to the transportation of agricultural products may incur more risks if emissions increase in agriculturally productive counties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Address-based versus random-digit-dial surveys: comparison of key health and risk indicators.

PubMed

Link, Michael W; Battaglia, Michael P; Frankel, Martin R; Osborn, Larry; Mokdad, Ali H

2006-11-15

Use of random-digit dialing (RDD) for conducting health surveys is increasingly problematic because of declining participation rates and eroding frame coverage. Alternative survey modes and sampling frames may improve response rates and increase the validity of survey estimates. In a 2005 pilot study conducted in six states as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the authors administered a mail survey to selected household members sampled from addresses in a US Postal Service database. The authors compared estimates based on data from the completed mail surveys (n = 3,010) with those from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone surveys (n = 18,780). The mail survey data appeared reasonably complete, and estimates based on data from the two survey modes were largely equivalent. Differences found, such as differences in the estimated prevalences of binge drinking (mail = 20.3%, telephone = 13.1%) or behaviors linked to human immunodeficiency virus transmission (mail = 7.1%, telephone = 4.2%), were consistent with previous research showing that, for questions about sensitive behaviors, self-administered surveys generally produce higher estimates than interviewer-administered surveys. The mail survey also provided access to cell-phone-only households and households without telephones, which cannot be reached by means of standard RDD surveys.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Regional Disease Vector Ecology Profile: North Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-05-01

personnel at risk of infection. Rift Valley Fever ( RVF ), caused by a Phlebovirus, was restricted to sub-Saharan Africa until a 1977 epidemic in...Egypt resulted in an estimated 18,000 human cases . The principal vector during the epidemic was Culex pipiens. RVF virus is capable of infecting...Another epi zootic occurred in Egypt during 1993-94 and involved 4,000 human cases. The current enzootic status of RVF virus in Egypt and other

Technologically Enhanced Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (TENORM) in the Oil and Gas Industry: A Review.

PubMed

Doyi, Israel; Essumang, David Kofi; Dampare, Samuel; Glover, Eric Tetteh

Radiation is part of the natural environment: it is estimated that approximately 80 % of all human exposure comes from naturally occurring or background radiation. Certain extractive industries such as mining and oil logging have the potential to increase the risk of radiation exposure to the environment and humans by concentrating the quantities of naturally occurring radiation beyond normal background levels (Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli 2004).

EXPOSURES AND INTERNAL DOSES OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) has released a final report that presents and applies a method to estimate distributions of internal concentrations of trihalomethanes (THMs) in humans resulting from a residential drinking water exposure. The report presents simulations of oral, dermal and inhalation exposures and demonstrates the feasibility of linking the US EPA’s information Collection Rule database with other databases on external exposure factors and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling to refine population-based estimates of exposure. Review Draft - by 2010, develop scientifically sound data and approaches to assess and manage risks to human health posed by exposure to specific regulated waterborne pathogens and chemicals, including those addressed by the Arsenic, M/DBP and Six-Year Review Rules.

Human action quality evaluation based on fuzzy logic with application in underground coal mining.

PubMed

Ionica, Andreea; Leba, Monica

2015-01-01

The work system is defined by its components, their roles and the relationships between them. Any work system gravitates around the human resource and the interdependencies between human factor and the other components of it. Researches in this field agreed that the human factor and its actions are difficult to quantify and predict. The objective of this paper is to apply a method of human actions evaluation in order to estimate possible risks and prevent possible system faults, both at human factor level and at equipment level. In order to point out the importance of the human factor influence on all the elements of the working systems we propose a fuzzy logic based methodology for quality evaluation of human actions. This methodology has a multidisciplinary character, as it gathers ideas and methods from: quality management, ergonomics, work safety and artificial intelligence. The results presented refer to a work system with a high degree of specificity, namely, underground coal mining and are valuable for human resources risk evaluation pattern. The fuzzy logic evaluation of the human actions leads to early detection of possible dangerous evolutions of the work system and alarm the persons in charge.

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment.

PubMed

Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M

2015-07-01

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Estimation of exposure to fluoride in "Los Altos de Jalisco", México].

PubMed

Hurtado-Jiménez, Roberto; Gardea-Torresdey, Jorge

2005-01-01

To estimate the level of fluoride exposure and human health risks in Los Altos de Jalisco (Jalisco State Heights) region. This study was conducted between May and July 2002. The fluoride concentrations of 105 water wells and six tap water samples were electrochemically measured. Exposure doses to fluoride and total intake of fluoride were estimated for babies (10 kg), children (20 kg), and adults (70 kg). The fluoride concentration of the water samples ranged from 0.1 to 17.7 mg/l. More than 45% of the water samples exceeded the national guideline value for fluoride of 1.5 mg/l. The estimated values of the exposure doses to fluoride and total intake of fluoride were in the range of 0.04-1.8 mg/kg/d and 0.5-18.4 mg/d, respectively. Dental fluorosis, skeletal fluorosis, and bone fractures are some of the potential health risks due to the intake of high doses of fluoride for the population of Los Altos de Jalisco. In order to reduce health risks, fluoridated salt,fluoridated toothpastes, and drinking water containing more than 0.7 mg/l of fluoride should be avoided.

Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

PubMed

Land, Charles E

2009-11-01

Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

Advances in EPA’s Rapid Exposure and Dosimetry Project (Interagency Alternatives Assessment Webinar)

EPA Science Inventory

Estimates of human and ecological exposures are required as critical input to risk-based prioritization and screening of chemicals. The CSS Rapid Exposure and Dosimetry project seeks to develop the data, tools, and evaluation approaches required to generate rapid and scientifical...

20171015 - Integrating Toxicity, Toxicokinetic, and Exposure Data for Risk-based Chemical Alternatives Assessment (ISES)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to predict the margin between the dose needed for adverse chemical effects and actual human exposure rates, data on hazard, exposure, and toxicokinetics are needed. In vitro methods, biomonitoring, and mathematical modeling have provided initial estimates for many extant...

Recreational Water Contact and Fish Consumption Assessment to Inform Risk Estimates and Evaluate Ecosystem Services

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Surface waters provide invaluable ecosystem services, including drinking water, food, waste water disposal, and recreation. The nature and frequency of recreational contact with surface waters is a critical consideration in evaluating benefits to human well-being (e.g...

PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF THE PARALLELOGRAM CONCEPT IN GENETIC MONITORING AND RISK ESTIMATION

EPA Science Inventory

The main objective of genetic monitoring in human health surveillance is to prevent excessive exposure to genotoxic agents and to ensure the safety of the exposed or potentially-exposed populace. To attain fully this objective one must understand low dose exposure and associated ...

ANEUPLOIDY AND CHROMOSOME BREAKAGE IN SWIM-UP VERSUS UNPROCESSED SEMEN FROM TWENTY HEALTHY MEN

EPA Science Inventory

Toxicologic and epidemiologic studies have investigated a number of factors believed to induce cytogenetic damage in human sperm cells in order to estimate heritable risk to future generations. Most of these studies, however, have not enriched research semen specimens for fertil...

AN INFORMATIC APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ECOLOGICAL RISKS POSED BY PHARMACEUTICAL USE: HUMAN PRESCRIPTION PHARMACEUTICALS

EPA Science Inventory

Pharmaceuticals are often excreted from patients as the parent compound or as active metabolites. Some of these compounds have been found in the environment. However, the environmental concentrations of the majority of pharmaceuticals and their metabolites are not known. The re...

Deposition of aerosol particles in human lungs: in vivo measurements and modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The deposition dose and site of inhaled particles within the lung are the key determinants in health risk assessment of particulate pollutants. Accurate dose estimation, however, is a formidable task because aerosol transport and deposition in the lung are governed by many factor...

76 FR 59142 - Guidance for Industry on Reproductive and Developmental Toxicities-Integrating Study Results To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-23

...--Integrating Study Results To Assess Concerns; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... industry entitled ``Reproductive and Developmental Toxicities--Integrating Study Results to Assess Concerns.'' This guidance describes an approach to estimating possible human developmental or reproductive risks...

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

PubMed

Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

2014-11-01

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

Hazard perception, risk perception, and the need for decontamination by residents exposed to soil pollution: the role of sustainability and the limits of expert knowledge.

PubMed

Vandermoere, Frédéric

2008-04-01

This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological-symbolic approach (ESA), a multidisciplinary model is developed that draws upon psychological and sociological perspectives on risk perception and includes ecological variables by using data from experts' risk assessments. The results show that hazard perception is best predicted by objective knowledge, subjective knowledge, estimated knowledge of experts, and the assessed risks. However, experts' risk assessments induce an increase in hazard perception only when residents know the urgency of decontamination. Risk perception is best predicted by trust in the risk management. Additionally, need for decontamination relates to hazard perception, risk perception, estimated knowledge of experts, and thoughts about sustainability. In contrast to the knowledge deficit model, objective and subjective knowledge did not significantly relate to risk perception and need for decontamination. The results suggest that residents can make a distinction between hazards in terms of the seriousness of contamination on the one hand, and human health risks on the other hand. Moreover, next to the importance of social determinants of environmental risk perception, this study shows that the output of experts' risk assessments-or the objective risks-can create a hazard awareness rather than an alarming risk consciousness, despite residents' distrust of scientific knowledge.

Space Radiation Organ Doses for Astronauts on Past and Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

We review methods and data used for determining astronaut organ dose equivalents on past space missions including Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, NASA-Mir, and International Space Station (ISS). Expectations for future lunar missions are also described. Physical measurements of space radiation include the absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra, or a related quantity, the lineal energy (y) spectra that is measured by a tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC). These data are used in conjunction with space radiation transport models to project organ specific doses used in cancer and other risk projection models. Biodosimetry data from Mir, STS, and ISS missions provide an alternative estimate of organ dose equivalents based on chromosome aberrations. The physical environments inside spacecraft are currently well understood with errors in organ dose projections estimated as less than plus or minus 15%, however understanding the biological risks from space radiation remains a difficult problem because of the many radiation types including protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons for which there are no human data to estimate risks. The accuracy of projections of organ dose equivalents described here must be supplemented with research on the health risks of space exposure to properly assess crew safety for exploration missions.

Evidence supporting radiation hormesis in atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data.

PubMed

Doss, Mohan

2012-12-01

A recent update on the atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data has concluded that excess relative risk (ERR) for solid cancers increases linearly with dose and that zero dose is the best estimate for the threshold, apparently validating the present use of the linear no threshold (LNT) model for estimating the cancer risk from low dose radiation. A major flaw in the standard ERR formalism for estimating cancer risk from radiation (and other carcinogens) is that it ignores the potential for a large systematic bias in the measured baseline cancer mortality rate, which can have a major effect on the ERR values. Cancer rates are highly variable from year to year and between adjacent regions and so the likelihood of such a bias is high. Calculations show that a correction for such a bias can lower the ERRs in the atomic bomb survivor data to negative values for intermediate doses. This is consistent with the phenomenon of radiation hormesis, providing a rational explanation for the decreased risk of cancer observed at intermediate doses for which there is no explanation based on the LNT model. The recent atomic bomb survivor data provides additional evidence for radiation hormesis in humans.

Quantifying the Risk of Human Toxoplasma gondii Infection Due to Consumption of Domestically Produced Lamb in the United States.

PubMed

Guo, Miao; Mishra, Abhinav; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Gamble, H Ray; Pradhan, Abani K

2016-07-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a prevalent protozoan parasite worldwide. Human toxoplasmosis is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in the United States, and meat products have been identified as an important source of T. gondii infections in humans. The goal of this study was to develop a farm-to-table quantitative microbial risk assessment model to predict the public health burden in the United States associated with consumption of U.S. domestically produced lamb. T. gondii prevalence in market lambs was pooled from the 2011 National Animal Health Monitoring System survey, and the concentration of the infectious life stage (bradyzoites) was calculated in the developed model. A log-linear regression and an exponential doseresponse model were used to model the reduction of T. gondii during home cooking and to predict the probability of infection, respectively. The mean probability of infection per serving of lamb was estimated to be 1.5 cases per 100,000 servings, corresponding to ∼6,300 new infections per year in the U.S. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we identified cooking as the most effective method to influence human health risk. This study provided a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for T. gondii infection through consumption of lamb and quantified the infection risk and public health burden associated with lamb consumption.

Risk assessment of acrylamide in foods.

PubMed

Dybing, E; Sanner, T

2003-09-01

Daily mean intakes of acrylamide present in foods and coffee in a limited Norwegian exposure assessment study have been estimated to be 0.49 and 0.46 microg per kg body weight in males and females, respectively. Testicular mesotheliomas and mammary gland adenomas have consistently been found in 2-year drinking water rat cancer studies with acrylamide. Acrylamide also shows initiating activity in mouse skin after systemic administration. Since acrylamide is converted to the mutagenic metabolite glycidamide and forms adducts to hemoglobin in rodents and humans, the tumorigenic endpoints in rats were assumed to be an expression of acrylamide genotoxicity. Using the default linear extrapolation methods LED10 and T25, the lifetime cancer hazard after lifelong exposure to 1 microg acrylamide per kg body weight per day, scaled to humans, was calculated to be, on average, 1.3 x 10-3. Using this hazard level and correlating it with the exposure estimates, a lifetime cancer risk related to daily intake of acrylamide in foods for 70 years in males was calculated to be 0.6 x 10-3, implying that 6 out of 10,000 individuals may develop cancer due to acrylamide. For females, the risk values were slightly lower. It must be emphasized that this risk assessment is conservative. A number of processes may result in nonlinearity of the dose-response relationships for acrylamide carcinogenicity in the low-dose region, including detoxication reactions, cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, apoptosis, and immune surveillance. Thus, the true risk levels related to acrylamide intake may be considerably lower.

Comprehensive and comparative ecotoxicological and human risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in reef surface sediments and coastal seawaters of Iranian Coral Islands, Persian Gulf.

PubMed

Ranjbar Jafarabadi, Ali; Riyahi Bakhtiari, Alireza; Shadmehri Toosi, Amirhossein

2017-11-01

The concentration and spatial distribution along with ecotoxicological risk of 30 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were investigated in the reef surface sediments (RSSs) and coastal seawater (CSW) of ten coral Islands from the Persian Gulf, Iran, in January 2015. For all sampling sites, assessment of ecological risk was undertaken using several approaches. Mean concentration of ∑30PAHs varied between 70 and 884ngL -l with an overall mean value of 464ngL -l in the CSW, while the RSS ranged from 274 to 1098ngg -1 dw with a total average of 619ngg -1 dw. The results showed a gradient in PAH concentration and toxicity estimates from the northern Hormoz site increasing to the eastern Kharg site. Most of the toxicity estimates were in the moderate range or less than risk values for damage to the marine environment. The calculated Dermal Hazard Quotient (HQs), the sum of HQs (HI) and other cancer risk values of most compounds were less than safety values at most sites. It means that the possibility of negative effects of PAHs via dermal absorption from sediments for children and adults is low. Some sampling sites studied have already been impacted with hazardous pollutants for an extended period of time and evidence from this investigation demonstrates that mixtures of PAHs may be carcinogenic to humans, especially in the western part of the Gulf. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating human exposure to PFOS isomers and PFCA homologues: the relative importance of direct and indirect (precursor) exposure.

PubMed

Gebbink, Wouter A; Berger, Urs; Cousins, Ian T

2015-01-01

Contributions of direct and indirect (via precursors) pathways of human exposure to perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) isomers and perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) are estimated using a Scenario-Based Risk Assessment (SceBRA) modelling approach. Monitoring data published since 2008 (including samples from 2007) are used. The estimated daily exposures (resulting from both direct and precursor intake) for the general adult population are highest for PFOS and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), followed by perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA) and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), while lower daily exposures are estimated for perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) and perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoDA). The precursor contributions to the individual perfluoroalkyl acid (PFAA) daily exposures are estimated to be 11-33% for PFOS, 0.1-2.5% for PFBA, 3.7-34% for PFHxA, 13-64% for PFOA, 5.2-66% for PFDA, and 0.7-25% for PFDoDA (ranges represent estimated precursor contributions in a low- and high-exposure scenario). For PFOS, direct intake via diet is the major exposure pathway regardless of exposure scenario. For PFCAs, the dominant exposure pathway is dependent on perfluoroalkyl chain length and exposure scenario. Modelled PFOS and PFOA concentrations in human serum using the estimated intakes from an intermediate-exposure scenario are in agreement with measured concentrations in different populations. The isomer pattern of PFOS resulting from total intakes (direct and via precursors) is estimated to be enriched with linear PFOS (84%) relative to technical PFOS (70% linear). This finding appears to be contradictory to the observed enrichment of branched PFOS isomers in recent human serum monitoring studies and suggests that either external exposure is not fully understood (e.g. there are unknown precursors, missing or poorly quantified exposure pathways) and/or that there is an incomplete understanding of the isomer-specific human pharmacokinetic processes of PFOS, its precursors and intermediates. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk assessment for carcinogens under California's Proposition 65

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pease, W.S.; Zeise, L.; Kelter, A.

1990-06-01

Risk assessments for carcinogens are being developed through an accelerated process in California as a part of the state's implementation of Proposition 65, the Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act. Estimates of carcinogenic potency made by the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) are generally similar to estimates made by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The largest differences are due to EPA's use of the maximum likelihood estimate instead of CDHS' use of the upper 95% confidence bounds on potencies derived from human data and to procedures used to correct for studies of short duration or with earlymore » mortality. Numerical limits derived from these potency estimates constitute no significant risk levels, which govern exemption from Proposition 65's discharge prohibition and warning requirements. Under Proposition 65 regulations, lifetime cancer risks less than 10(-5) are not significant and cumulative intake is not considered. Following these regulations, numerical limits for a number of Proposition 65 carcinogens that are applicable to the control of toxic discharges are less stringent than limits under existing federal water pollution control laws. Thus, existing federal limits will become the Proposition 65 levels for discharge. Chemicals currently not covered by federal and state controls will eventually be subject to discharge limitations under Proposition 65. No significant risk levels (expressed in terms of daily intake of carcinogens) also trigger warning requirements under Proposition 65 that are more extensive than existing state or federal requirements. A variety of chemical exposures from multiple sources are identified that exceed Proposition 65's no significant risk levels.« less

Nonlinear association between betel quid chewing and oral cancer: Implications for prevention.

PubMed

Madathil, Sreenath Arekunnath; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Wynant, Willy; Schlecht, Nicolas F; Netuveli, Gopalakrishnan; Franco, Eduardo L; Nicolau, Belinda

2016-09-01

Betel quid chewing is a major oral cancer risk factor and the human papillomaviruses (HPV) may play an aetiological role in these cancers. However, little is known about the shape of the dose-response relationship between the betel quid chewing habit and oral cancer risk in populations without HPV. We estimate the shape of this dose-response relationship, and discuss implications for prevention. Cases with oral squamous cell carcinoma (350) and non-cancer controls (371) were recruited from two major teaching hospitals in South India. Information on socio-demographic and behavioral factors was collected using a questionnaire and the life grid technique. The effect of daily amount of use and duration of the habit were estimated jointly as risk associated with cumulative exposure (chew-years). The shape of the dose-response curve was estimated using restricted cubic spline transformation of chew-years in a conditional logistic regression model. Risk estimates for low dose combinations of daily amount and duration of the habit were computed from flexible regression. Most (72%) oral cancer cases were betel quid chewers in contrast to only 18% of controls. A nonlinear dose-response relationship was observed; the risk increased steeply at low doses and plateaued at high exposures to betel quid (>425 chew-years). A threefold increase in risk (OR=3.92, 95%CI: 1.87-8.21) was observed for the lowest dose; equivalent to the use of one quid per day for one year. Our findings may be used to counsel people to refrain from even low betel quid chewing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Evidence for Association of Human Bladder Cancer with Drinking-Water Chlorination Disinfection By-Products.

PubMed

Hrudey, Steve E; Backer, Lorraine C; Humpage, Andrew R; Krasner, Stuart W; Michaud, Dominique S; Moore, Lee E; Singer, Philip C; Stanford, Benjamin D

2015-01-01

Exposure to chlorination disinfection by-products (CxDBPs) is prevalent in populations using chlorination-based methods to disinfect public water supplies. Multifaceted research has been directed for decades to identify, characterize, and understand the toxicology of these compounds, control and minimize their formation, and conduct epidemiologic studies related to exposure. Urinary bladder cancer has been the health risk most consistently associated with CxDBPs in epidemiologic studies. An international workshop was held to (1) discuss the qualitative strengths and limitations that inform the association between bladder cancer and CxDBPs in the context of possible causation, (2) identify knowledge gaps for this topic in relation to chlorine/chloramine-based disinfection practice(s) in the United States, and (3) assess the evidence for informing risk management. Epidemiological evidence linking exposures to CxDBPs in drinking water to human bladder cancer risk provides insight into causality. However, because of imprecise, inaccurate, or incomplete estimation of CxDBPs levels in epidemiologic studies, translation from hazard identification directly to risk management and regulatory policy for CxDBPs can be challenging. Quantitative risk estimates derived from toxicological risk assessment for CxDBPs currently cannot be reconciled with those from epidemiologic studies, notwithstanding the complexities involved, making regulatory interpretation difficult. Evidence presented here has both strengths and limitations that require additional studies to resolve and improve the understanding of exposure response relationships. Replication of epidemiologic findings in independent populations with further elaboration of exposure assessment is needed to strengthen the knowledge base needed to better inform effective regulatory approaches.

Evaluating Evidence for Association of Human Bladder Cancer with Drinking-Water Chlorination Disinfection By-Products

PubMed Central

Hrudey, Steve E.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Humpage, Andrew R.; Krasner, Stuart W.; Michaud, Dominique S.; Moore, Lee E.; Singer, Philip C.; Stanford, Benjamin D.

2015-01-01

Exposure to chlorination disinfection by-products (CxDBPs) is prevalent in populations using chlorination-based methods to disinfect public water supplies. Multifaceted research has been directed for decades to identify, characterize, and understand the toxicology of these compounds, control and minimize their formation, and conduct epidemiologic studies related to exposure. Urinary bladder cancer has been the health risk most consistently associated with CxDBPs in epidemiologic studies. An international workshop was held to (1) discuss the qualitative strengths and limitations that inform the association between bladder cancer and CxDBPs in the context of possible causation, (2) identify knowledge gaps for this topic in relation to chlorine/chloramine-based disinfection practice(s) in the United States, and (3) assess the evidence for informing risk management. Epidemiological evidence linking exposures to CxDBPs in drinking water to human bladder cancer risk provides insight into causality. However, because of imprecise, inaccurate, or incomplete estimation of CxDBPs levels in epidemiologic studies, translation from hazard identification directly to risk management and regulatory policy for CxDBPs can be challenging. Quantitative risk estimates derived from toxicological risk assessment for CxDBPs currently cannot be reconciled with those from epidemiologic studies, notwithstanding the complexities involved, making regulatory interpretation difficult. Evidence presented here has both strengths and limitations that require additional studies to resolve and improve the understanding of exposure response relationships. Replication of epidemiologic findings in independent populations with further elaboration of exposure assessment is needed to strengthen the knowledge base needed to better inform effective regulatory approaches. PMID:26309063

Applications of Capstone depleted uranium aerosol risk data to military combat risk management.

PubMed

Daxon, Eric G; Parkhurst, Mary Ann; Melanson, Mark A; Roszell, Laurie E

2009-03-01

Risks to personnel engaged in military operations include not only the threat of enemy firepower but also risks from exposure to other hazards such as radiation. Combatant commanders of the U.S. Army carefully weigh risks of casualties before implementing battlefield actions using an established paradigm that takes these risks into consideration. As a result of the inclusion of depleted uranium (DU) anti-armor ammunition in the conventional (non-nuclear) weapons arsenal, the potential for exposure to DU aerosols and its associated chemical and radiological effects becomes an element of the commanders' risk assessment. The Capstone DU Aerosol Study measured the range of likely DU oxide aerosol concentrations created inside a combat vehicle perforated with a DU munition, and the Capstone Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) estimated the associated doses and calculated risks. This paper focuses on the development of a scientific approach to adapt the risks from DU's non-uniform dose distribution within the body using the current U.S. Department of Defense radiation risk management approach. The approach developed equates the Radiation Exposure Status categories to the estimated radiological risks of DU and makes use of the Capstone-developed Renal Effects Group as a measure of chemical risk from DU intake. Recommendations are provided for modifying Army guidance and policy in order to better encompass the potential risks from DU aerosol inhalation during military operations.

Mapping rural community and dairy cow heat stress in Southern Ontario: A common geographic pattern from 2010 to 2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2016-07-03

Climate change has increased the occurrence of heat waves, causing heat stress among humans and livestock, with potentially fatal consequences. Heat stress maps provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Weather data were collected throughout Southern Ontario, and the heat stress index (HSI) was estimated for 2010-2012. Geostatistical kriging was applied to map heat stress, heat waves, and control periods. Average HSI for each period ranged from 55 to 78 during control periods, and from 65 to 84 during heat waves, surpassing levels where morbidity is known to increase substantially. Heat stress followed a temporally consistent geographic pattern. HSI maps indicate high-risk areas for heat-related illness and indicate areas where agriculture and human health may be at increased risk in future.

Prostate cancer and inflammation: the evidence

PubMed Central

Sfanos, Karen S; De Marzo, Angelo M

2014-01-01

Chronic inflammation is now known to contribute to several forms of human cancer, with an estimated 20% of adult cancers attributable to chronic inflammatory conditions caused by infectious agents, chronic noninfectious inflammatory diseases and / or other environmental factors. Indeed, chronic inflammation is now regarded as an ‘enabling characteristic’ of human cancer. The aim of this review is to summarize the current literature on the evidence for a role for chronic inflammation in prostate cancer aetiology, with a specific focus on recent advances regarding the following: (i) potential stimuli for prostatic inflammation; (ii) prostate cancer immunobiology; (iii) inflammatory pathways and cytokines in prostate cancer risk and development; (iv) proliferative inflammatory atrophy (PIA) as a risk factor lesion to prostate cancer development; and (v) the role of nutritional or other antiinflammatory compounds in reducing prostate cancer risk. PMID:22212087

Risk factors for persistent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 1 and 2: managed by watchful waiting.

PubMed

Ho, Gloria Y F; Einstein, Mark H; Romney, Seymour L; Kadish, Anna S; Abadi, Maria; Mikhail, Magdy; Basu, Jayasri; Thysen, Benjamin; Reimers, Laura; Palan, Prabhudas R; Trim, Shelly; Soroudi, Nafisseh; Burk, Robert D

2011-10-01

: This study examines risk factors for persistent cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and examines whether human papillomavirus (HPV) testing predicts persistent lesions. : Women with histologically diagnosed CIN 1 or CIN 2 (n = 206) were followed up every 3 months without treatment. Human papillomavirus genotyping, plasma levels of ascorbic acid, and red blood cell folate levels were obtained. Cervical biopsy at 12 months determined the presence of CIN. Relative risk (RR) was estimated by log-linked binomial regression models. : At 12 months, 70% of CIN 1 versus 54% of CIN 2 lesions spontaneously regressed (p < .001). Levels of folate or ascorbic acid were not associated with persistent CIN at 12 months. Compared with HPV-negative women, those with multiple HPV types (RRs ranged from 1.68 to 2.17 at each follow-up visit) or high-risk types (RRs range = 1.74-2.09) were at increased risk for persistent CIN; women with HPV-16/18 had the highest risk (RRs range = 1.91-2.21). Persistent infection with a high-risk type was also associated with persistent CIN (RRs range = 1.50-2.35). Typing for high-risk HPVs at 6 months only had a sensitivity of 46% in predicting persistence of any lesions at 12 months. : Spontaneous regression of CIN 1 and 2 occurs frequently within 12 months. Human papillomavirus infection is the major risk factor for persistent CIN. However, HPV testing cannot reliably predict persistence of any lesion.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are enriched but bioaccessibility reduced in brownfield soils adhered to human hands.

PubMed

Siciliano, Steven D; Laird, B D; Lemieux, C L

2010-08-01

The health risk associated with exposure to urban brownfields is often driven by the incidental ingestion of soil by humans. Recent evidence found that humans likely ingest the fraction of soil that passes a 45-microm sieve, which is the particle size adhered to the hands. We evaluated if PAH concentrations were enriched in this soil fraction compared to the bulk soil and if this enrichment lead to an increase in bioaccessibility and thus an increase in incremental lifetime cancer risk for exposed persons. Soils (n=18) with PAH concentrations below the current Canadian soil quality guidelines for human health were collected from an Arctic urban site and were sieved to pass a 45-microm sieve. Soil PAH profiles were measured and bioaccessibility was assessed using the Simulator of the Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem (SHIME). PAHs were significantly enriched in the <45 microm size fraction (3.7-fold) and this enrichment could be predicted according to the fugacity capacity of soil (Enrichment=2.18-0.055Zsoil, r2=0.65, p<0.001). PAH release in the stomach and small intestine compartments of the SHIME was low (8%) and could not be predicted by PAH concentrations in 45-microm sieved soil. In fact, PAH release in the SHIME was lower from the <45 microm size fraction despite the fact that this fraction had higher levels of PAHs than the bulk soil. We postulate that this occurs because PAHs adsorbed to soil did not reach equilibrium with the small intestinal fluid. In contrast, PAH release in the colonic compartment of the SHIME reached equilibrium and was linked to soil concentration. Bioaccessibility in the SHIME colon could be predicted by the ratio of fugacity capacity of soil to water for a PAH (Bioaccessibility=0.15e(-6.4x10E-7Zsoil/Zwater), r2=0.53, p<0.01). The estimated incremental lifetime cancer risk was significantly greater for the <45 microm soil fraction compared to the bulk fraction; however, when bioaccessible PAH concentrations in a simulated small intestine were used in the risk assessment calculations, cancer risk was slightly lower in the <45 microm soil fraction for these soils. Our results highlight the importance of using a small soil size fraction, e.g. 45 microm, for contaminated site human health risk assessment. However, further work is needed to estimate the bioavailability of this size fraction in an in vivo model and to assess the correlation between in vitro and in vivo gastrointestinal models. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Concentrations, bioaccumulation, and human health risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals in edible fish from Wuhan, China.

PubMed

Cui, Lili; Ge, Jing; Zhu, Yindi; Yang, Yuyi; Wang, Jun

2015-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine concentration and bioaccumulation of organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals in edible fish from Wuhan, China, in order to assess health risk to the human via fish consumption. Two edible fish species (Aristichthys nobilis and Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) were collected and analyzed for 11 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and eight heavy metals (HMs). Concentrations of ∑HCHs, ∑DDTs, and ∑OCPs in fish samples were in the range of 0.37-111.20, not detected (nd)-123.61, and 2.04-189.04 ng g(-1) (wet weight), respectively. Bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of OCPs in bighead carp (A. nobilis) were higher than those in silver carp (H. molitrix). Concentrations of ∑HMs in bighead carp and silver carp were 352.48 and 345.20 mg kg(-1) (dw), respectively. Daily exposure of OCPs and HMs for consumers was estimated by comparing estimated daily intake (EDI) with different criteria. The results revealed that the EDIs in our study were all lower than those criteria. Target hazard quotient (THQ) and risk ratio (R) were used to evaluate non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks, respectively. As regard to non-carcinogenic effects of the contaminants, hazard quotients (THQ) of OCPs and HMs were both lower than 1.0, implying negligible non-carcinogenic risk via fish consumption in study area. Nevertheless, in view of carcinogenic effects of the contaminants, the total value of risk ratio (R) of OCPs was lower than the threshold of tolerable risk while the total value of risk ratio (R) of HMs was higher than the threshold of tolerable risk due to the high carcinogenic risk ratios of As and Cr, indicating high carcinogenic risks via fish consumption. The results demonstrated that HMs in edible fish from Wuhan, China, especially As and Cr required more attention than OCPs.

Risk-Based Consumption Advice for Farmed Atlantic and Wild Pacific Salmon Contaminated with Dioxins and Dioxin-like Compounds

PubMed Central

Foran, Jeffery A.; Carpenter, David O.; Hamilton, M. Coreen; Knuth, Barbara A.; Schwager, Steven J.

2005-01-01

We reported recently that several organic contaminants occurred at elevated concentrations in farmed Atlantic salmon compared with concentrations of the same contaminants in wild Pacific salmon [Hites et al. Science 303:226–229 (2004)]. We also found that polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), toxaphene, dieldrin, dioxins, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers occurred at higher concentrations in European farm-raised salmon than in farmed salmon from North and South America. Health risks (based on a quantitative cancer risk assessment) associated with consumption of farmed salmon contaminated with PCBs, toxaphene, and dieldrin were higher than risks associated with exposure to the same contaminants in wild salmon. Here we present information on cancer and noncancer health risks of exposure to dioxins in farmed and wild salmon. The analysis is based on a tolerable intake level for dioxin-like compounds established by the World Health Organization and on risk estimates for human exposure to dioxins developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Consumption of farmed salmon at relatively low frequencies results in elevated exposure to dioxins and dioxin-like compounds with commensurate elevation in estimates of health risk. PMID:15866762

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, W. P.; Evans, H. J.; Williamsen, J. E; Boyer, R. L.; Nakayama, G. S.

2005-01-01

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

EPA Exposure Research and the ExpoCast Project: New Methods and New Data (NIEHS Exposome webinar)

EPA Science Inventory

Estimates of human and ecological exposures are required as critical input to risk-based prioritization and screening of thousands of chemicals. In a 2009 commentary in Environmental Health Perspectives, Shelden and Hubal proposed that “Novel statistical and informatic approaches...

Estimating the Hepatic Effects of Xenobiotic Perturbations in a Virtual Liver

EPA Science Inventory

There are thousands of environmental chemicals and hundreds of new ones are introduced each year. Human health risk assessments for this number of chemicals is a challenge, and have been completed for only a fraction of these chemicals. The US EPA Virtual Liver (v-LiverTM) projec...

EXTRACTION TECHNIQUES FOR THE REMOVAL OF ARSENICALS FROM SEAFOOD EXPOSURE MATRICES WITH ICP-MS DETECTION

EPA Science Inventory

Most of the existing arsenic dietary databases were developed from the analysis of total arsenic in water and dietary samples. These databases have been used to estimate arsenic exposure and in turn human health risk. However, these dietary databases are becoming obsolete as the ...

METHODS DEVELOPMENT AT THE NEAR LAB ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH AREA (NLERA) LOCATED IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN.

EPA Science Inventory

This task supports the Agency's efforts on developing a proper risk assessment tools to address Ecological and eventually Human exposures. The Agency needs to be able to identify, measure and estimate ecosystem exposure to multiple stressors. The research under this task suppor...

Exposure Pathways, Biomarkers and the Exposome: Predictions, Insight, and Uncertainty (SOT presentation - CE lecture)

EPA Science Inventory

The risk posed to human health by any of the thousands of untested anthropogenic chemicals in our environment is a function of both the hazard presented by the chemical and the extent of exposure. However, many chemicals lack estimates of exposure intake, limiting the understandi...

Emerging Tools to Estimate and to Predict Exposures to Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

The timely assessment of the human and ecological risk posed by thousands of existing and emerging commercial chemicals is a critical challenge facing EPA in its mission to protect public health and the environment The US EPA has been conducting research to enhance methods used t...

Development and application of traffic density-based parameters for studying near-road air pollutant exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Increasingly human populations are living and/or working in close proximity to heavily travelled roadways. There is a growing body of research indicating a variety of health conditions are adversely affected by near-road air pollutants. To reliably estimate the health risk assoc...

Development and application of traffic density-based Parameters for near-road air pollutant exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Increasingly human populations are living and/or working in close proximity to heavily travelled roadways. There is a growing body of research indicating a variety of health conditions are adversely affected by near-road air pollutants. To reliably estimate the health risk assoc...

QMRA as a compliment to epidemiologic studies estimating bather risk at recreational beaches

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA and WHO have set recreational water quality standards based on epidemiologic studies to protect human health at beaches. These studies have largely been limited to sewage-impacted sites and resources are unlikely to be available to assess the myriad of other impacted ...

20171003 - Exposure Research in EPA’s Chemical Safety for Sustainability Research Program (ACC LRI SST Science Discussion)

EPA Science Inventory

Estimates of human and ecological exposures are required as critical input to risk-based prioritization and screening of chemicals. This project seeks to develop the data, tools, and evaluation approaches required to generate rapid and scientifically-defensible exposure predictio...

v-Liver: Simulating Hepatic Tissue Lesions as Virtual Cellular Systems

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA Virtual Liver (v-Liver) project is aimed at reducing the uncertainty in estimating the risk of toxic outcomes in humans by simulating the dose-dependent effects of environmental chemicals in silico. The v-Liver embodies an emerging field of research in computational ti...

Occupational Risk for Oral Cancer in Nordic Countries.

PubMed

Tarvainen, Laura; Suojanen, Juho; Kyyronen, Pentti; Lindqvist, Christian; Martinsen, Jan Ivar; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Lynge, Elsebeth; Sparen, Par; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Pukkala, Eero

2017-06-01

To evaluate occupational risk for cancer of the tongue, oral cavity or pharynx after adjustment for alcohol and tobacco use. The data covered 14.9 million people and 28,623 cases of cancer of the tongue, oral cavity and pharynx in the Nordic countries 1961-2005. Alcohol consumption by occupation was estimated based on mortality from liver cirrhosis and incidence of liver cancer. Smoking by occupation was estimated based on the incidence of lung cancer. Only few occupations had relative risks of over 1.5 for cancer of the tongue, oral cavity and pharynx. These occupations included dentists, artistic workers, hairdressers, journalists, cooks and stewards, seamen and waiters. Several occupational categories, including dentists, had an increased relative risk of tongue cancer. This new finding remains to be explained but could be related to occupational chemical exposures, increased consumption of alcohol and tobacco products, or infection with human papilloma virus. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Trace elements contamination and human health risk assessment in drinking water from Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Lu, Shao-You; Zhang, Hui-Min; Sojinu, Samuel O; Liu, Gui-Hua; Zhang, Jian-Qing; Ni, Hong-Gang

2015-01-01

The levels of seven essential trace elements (Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Se, and Mo) and six non-essential trace elements (Cr, As, Cd, Sb, Hg, and Pb) in a total of 89 drinking water samples collected in Shenzhen, China were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) in the present study. Both the essential and non-essential trace elements were frequently detectable in the different kinds of drinking waters assessed. Remarkable temporal and spatial variations were observed among most of the trace elements in the tap water collected from two tap water treatment plants. Meanwhile, potential human health risk from these non-essential trace elements in the drinking water for local residents was also assessed. The median values of cancer risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic metals via drinking water consumption were estimated to be 6.1 × 10(-7), 2.1 × 10(-8), and 2.5 × 10(-7) for As, Cd, and Cr, respectively; the median values of incremental lifetime for non-cancer risks were estimated to be 6.1 × 10(-6), 4.4 × 10(-5), and 2.2 × 10(-5) for Hg, Pb, and Sb, respectively. The median value of total incremental lifetime health risk induced by the six non-essential trace elements for the population was 3.5 × 10(-5), indicating that the potential health risks from non-carcinogenic trace elements in drinking water also require some attention. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most important factor for health risk assessment should be the levels of heavy metal in drinking water.

Cancer risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils determined using bioassay-derived levels of benzo[a]pyrene equivalents.

PubMed

Lemieux, Christine L; Long, Alexandra S; Lambert, Iain B; Lundstedt, Staffan; Tysklind, Mats; White, Paul A

2015-02-03

Here we evaluate the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) posed by 10 PAH-contaminated soils using (i) the currently advocated, targeted chemical-specific approach that assumes dose additivity for carcinogenic PAHs and (ii) a bioassay-based approach that employs the in vitro mutagenic activity of the soil fractions to determine levels of benzo[a]pyrene equivalents and, by extension, ELCR. Mutagenic activity results are presented in our companion paper.1 The results show that ELCR values for the PAH-containing fractions, determined using the chemical-specific approach, are generally (i.e., 8 out of 10) greater than those calculated using the bioassay-based approach; most are less than 5-fold greater. Only two chemical-specific ELCR estimates are less than their corresponding bioassay-derived values; differences are less than 10%. The bioassay-based approach, which permits estimation of ELCR without a priori knowledge of mixture composition, proved to be a useful tool to evaluate the chemical-specific approach. The results suggest that ELCR estimates for complex PAH mixtures determined using a targeted, chemical-specific approach are reasonable, albeit conservative. Calculated risk estimates still depend on contentious PEFs and cancer slope factors. Follow-up in vivo mutagenicity assessments will be required to validate the results and their relevance for human health risk assessment of PAH-contaminated soils.

The impact of poverty on dog ownership and access to canine rabies vaccination: results from a knowledge, attitudes and practices survey, Uganda 2013.

PubMed

Wallace, Ryan MacLaren; Mehal, Jason; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Recuenco, Sergio; Bakamutumaho, Barnabas; Osinubi, Modupe; Tugumizemu, Victor; Blanton, Jesse D; Gilbert, Amy; Wamala, Joseph

2017-06-01

Rabies is a neglected disease despite being responsible for more human deaths than any other zoonosis. A lack of adequate human and dog surveillance, resulting in low prioritization, is often blamed for this paradox. Estimation methods are often employed to describe the rabies burden when surveillance data are not available, however these figures are rarely based on country-specific data. In 2013 a knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey was conducted in Uganda to understand dog population, rabies vaccination, and human rabies risk factors and improve in-country and regional rabies burden estimates. Poisson and multi-level logistic regression techniques were conducted to estimate the total dog population and vaccination coverage. Twenty-four villages were selected, of which 798 households completed the survey, representing 4 375 people. Dog owning households represented 12.9% of the population, for which 175 dogs were owned (25 people per dog). A history of vaccination was reported in 55.6% of owned dogs. Poverty and human population density highly correlated with dog ownership, and when accounted for in multi-level regression models, the human to dog ratio fell to 47:1 and the estimated national canine-rabies vaccination coverage fell to 36.1%. This study estimates there are 729 486 owned dogs in Uganda (95% CI: 719 919 - 739 053). Ten percent of survey respondents provided care to dogs they did not own, however unowned dog populations were not enumerated in this estimate. 89.8% of Uganda's human population was estimated to reside in a community that can support enzootic canine rabies transmission. This study is the first to comprehensively evaluate the effect of poverty on dog ownership in Africa. These results indicate that describing a dog population may not be as simple as applying a human: dog ratio, and factors such as poverty are likely to heavily influence dog ownership and vaccination coverage. These modelled estimates should be confirmed through further field studies, however, if validated, canine rabies elimination through mass vaccination may not be as difficult as previously considered in Uganda. Data derived from this study should be considered to improve models for estimating the in-country and regional rabies burden.

Interim methods for development of inhalation reference concentrations. Draft report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blackburn, K.; Dourson, M.; Erdreich, L.

1990-08-01

An inhalation reference concentration (RfC) is an estimate of continuous inhalation exposure over a human lifetime that is unlikely to pose significant risk of adverse noncancer health effects and serves as a benchmark value for assisting in risk management decisions. Derivation of an RfC involves dose-response assessment of animal data to determine the exposure levels at which no significant increase in the frequency or severity of adverse effects between the exposed population and its appropriate control exists. The assessment requires an interspecies dose extrapolation from a no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) exposure concentration of an animal to a human equivalent NOAEL (NOAEL(HBC)).more » The RfC is derived from the NOAEL(HBC) by the application of generally order-of-magnitude uncertainty factors. Intermittent exposure scenarios in animals are extrapolated to chronic continuous human exposures. Relationships between external exposures and internal doses depend upon complex simultaneous and consecutive processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism, storage, detoxification, and elimination. To estimate NOAEL(HBC)s when chemical-specific physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models are not available, a dosimetric extrapolation procedure based on anatomical and physiological parameters of the exposed human and animal and the physical parameters of the toxic chemical has been developed which gives equivalent or more conservative exposure concentrations values than those that would be obtained with a PB-PK model.« less

Increase in reptile-associated human salmonellosis and shift toward adulthood in the age groups at risk, the Netherlands, 1985 to 2014.

PubMed

Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Heck, Max; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2016-08-25

While the contribution of the main food-related sources to human salmonellosis is well documented, knowledge on the contribution of reptiles is limited. We quantified and examined trends in reptile-associated salmonellosis in the Netherlands during a 30-year period, from 1985 to 2014. Using source attribution analysis, we estimated that 2% (95% confidence interval: 1.3-2.8) of all sporadic/domestic human salmonellosis cases reported in the Netherlands during the study period (n = 63,718) originated from reptiles. The estimated annual fraction of reptile-associated salmonellosis cases ranged from a minimum of 0.3% (corresponding to 11 cases) in 1988 to a maximum of 9.3% (93 cases) in 2013. There was a significant increasing trend in reptile-associated salmonellosis cases (+ 19% annually) and a shift towards adulthood in the age groups at highest risk, while the proportion of reptile-associated salmonellosis cases among those up to four years-old decreased by 4% annually and the proportion of cases aged 45 to 74 years increased by 20% annually. We hypothesise that these findings may be the effect of the increased number and variety of reptiles that are kept as pets, calling for further attention to the issue of safe reptile-human interaction and for reinforced hygiene recommendations for reptile owners. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2016.

Increase in reptile-associated human salmonellosis and shift toward adulthood in the age groups at risk, the Netherlands, 1985 to 2014

PubMed Central

Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Heck, Max; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2016-01-01

While the contribution of the main food-related sources to human salmonellosis is well documented, knowledge on the contribution of reptiles is limited. We quantified and examined trends in reptile-associated salmonellosis in the Netherlands during a 30-year period, from 1985 to 2014. Using source attribution analysis, we estimated that 2% (95% confidence interval: 1.3–2.8) of all sporadic/domestic human salmonellosis cases reported in the Netherlands during the study period (n = 63,718) originated from reptiles. The estimated annual fraction of reptile-associated salmonellosis cases ranged from a minimum of 0.3% (corresponding to 11 cases) in 1988 to a maximum of 9.3% (93 cases) in 2013. There was a significant increasing trend in reptile-associated salmonellosis cases (+ 19% annually) and a shift towards adulthood in the age groups at highest risk, while the proportion of reptile-associated salmonellosis cases among those up to four years-old decreased by 4% annually and the proportion of cases aged 45 to 74 years increased by 20% annually. We hypothesise that these findings may be the effect of the increased number and variety of reptiles that are kept as pets, calling for further attention to the issue of safe reptile–human interaction and for reinforced hygiene recommendations for reptile owners. PMID:27589037

Assessing risks and preventing disease from environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Dunnette, D A

1989-01-01

In the last 25 years there has been considerable concern expressed about the extent to which chemical agents in the ambient and work environments are contributing to the causation of disease. This concern is a logical extension of our increased knowledge of the real and potential effects of environmental chemicals and the methodological difficulties in applying new knowledge that could help prevent environmentally induced disease. Chemical risk assessment offers an approach to estimating risks and involves consideration of relevant information including identification of chemical hazards, evaluation of the dose-response relationship, estimation of exposure and finally, risk characterization. Particularly significant uncertainties which are inherent in use of this and other risk models include animal-human and low dose-high dose extrapolation and estimation of exposure. Community public health risks from exposure to environmental chemicals appear to be small relative to other public health risks based on information related to cancer trends, dietary intake of synthetic chemicals, assessment data on substances such as DDT and "dioxin," public health effects of hazardous waste sites and contextual considerations. Because of inherent uncertainty in the chemical risk assessment process, however, we need to apply what methods are available in our efforts to prevent disease induced by environmental chemicals. There are a number of societal strategies which can contribute to overall reduction of risk from environmental chemicals. These include acquisition of information on environmental risk including toxicity, intensity and extensity of exposure, biological monitoring, disease surveillance, improvement in epidemiological methods, control of environmental chemical exposures, and dissemination of hazardous chemical information. Responsible environmental risk communication and information transfer appear to be among the most important of the available strategies for preventing disease induced by chemicals in the environment.

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs.

PubMed

Turner, Wendy C; Kausrud, Kyrre L; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N; Ganz, Holly H; Turnbull, Peter C B; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Getz, Wayne M

2016-06-06

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1-2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways.

Estimation of intake and uptake of bisphenols and triclosan from personal care products by dermal contact.

PubMed

Lu, Shaoyou; Yu, Yuling; Ren, Lu; Zhang, Xiaolan; Liu, Guihua; Yu, Yingxin

2018-04-15

Increasing concern has been raised in respect of exposure to bisphenols and triclosan (TCS) due to their widespread use. However, little is known about their occurrence in personal care products (PCPs) or, particularly, their dermal uptake following daily application. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the human health risk of bisphenols and TCS via dermal absorption. In this study, 150 PCPs, covering 11 different categories, were collected in China. The concentrations of seven bisphenol analogues and TCS were measured, and the associated human health risks by dermal contact were estimated. High detection frequencies of TCS (46.7%) and bisphenol AF (38.7%) were found in the PCPs. The highest mean concentration of Σ 7 BPs (sum concentration of all seven bisphenols) was 77.8ngg -1 found in masks, and the highest mean concentration of TCS was 86.7ngg -1 in hand sanitizers. The bisphenol composition profiles varied among different categories. Bisphenol A and bisphenol F generally showed higher concentrations. Combining the concentrations of the target substances with the daily usage quantities of PCPs and other parameters, the total estimated dermal intakes and uptakes of Σ 7 BPs and TCS were calculated. The results showed that the former (12.1 and 1.06ng·kg -1 bw day -1 ) were markedly higher than the latter (1.21 and 9.58×10 -2 ng·kg -1 bw day -1 ), which included dermal absorption rates of the chemicals in the estimation. Although diet is the main source, and oral ingestion is the main route, for human BPA exposure, the results of the estimated dermal uptakes of BPA in the present study combined with those from a European study show that dermal contact is the main route with thermal paper being the main contributor when both unconjugated and conjugated BPA in the human body are considered. The present study also showed that exposure to BPA in PCPs following dermal contact should not be ignored. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Army Research Laboratory EMP simulators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miletta, J.R.; Chase, R.J.; Luu, B.B.

1993-12-01

Models are required that permit the estimation of emitted field signatures from EMP simulators to design the simulator antenna structure, to establish the usable test volumes, and to estimate human exposure risk. This paper presents the capabilities and limitations of a variety of EMP simulator models useful to the Army's EMP survivability programs. Comparisons among frequency and time-domain models are provided for two powerful US Army Research Laboratory EMP simulators: AESOP (Army EMP Simulator Operations) and VEMPS II (Vertical EMP Simulator II).

Arsenic and lead in foods: a potential threat to human health in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Islam, Md Saiful; Ahmed, Md Kawser; Habibullah-Al-Mamun, Md; Islam, Kazi Nazrul; Ibrahim, Md; Masunaga, Shigeki

2014-01-01

The non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk of arsenic and lead to adults and children via daily dietary intake of food composites in Bangladesh was estimated. The target hazard quotients (THQs), hazard index (HI) and target carcinogenic risk (TR) were calculated to evaluate the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risk from arsenic and lead. Most of the individual food composites contain a considerable amount of arsenic and lead. The highest mean concentrations of arsenic were found in cereals (0.254 mg kg⁻¹ fw) and vegetables (0.250 mg kg⁻¹ fw), and lead in vegetables (0.714 mg kg⁻¹ fw) and fish (0.326 mg kg⁻¹ fw). The results showed the highest THQs of arsenic in cereals and lead in vegetables for both adults and children which exceeded the safe limit (> 1) indicating that cereals and vegetables are the main food items contributing to the potential health risk. The estimated TR from ingesting dietary arsenic and lead from most of the foods exceeded 10⁻⁶, indicating carcinogenic risks for all adult people of the study area.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlomore » simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.« less

Assessing bisphenol A (BPA) exposure risk from long-term dietary intakes in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Yu; Shen, Yi-Pei; Chen, Szu-Chieh

2016-02-01

Dietary intake is the major bisphenol A (BPA) exposure route in humans, and is a cause of BPA-related adverse effects. The large-scale exposure risk of humans to BPA through dietary sources in Taiwan is less well studied. The aim of this study was to assess the average daily dose (ADD) and hazardous quotient (HQ) of BPA exposure risk from long-term dietary intake of BPA, as well as BPA concentrations in different age-sex groups in Taiwan. We reanalyzed the BPA concentrations of regular daily food sources (rice, poultry, livestock, seafood, protein, fruits, and vegetables) and used a national dietary survey to estimate the contribution of variance to ADDs and potential human health effect for different age-sex groups. This study found that the daily consumption of chicken, pork/beef, and seafood were estimated to be 33.77 (Male)/22.65 (Female), 91.70 (M)/66.35 (F), and 54.15 (M)/40.78 (F) g/day, respectively. The highest BPA ADD was found in the 6-9 years age group (95% CI=0.0006-0.0027 mg/kg-bw/day), whereas the lowest BPA ADD was in the ≥65 years age group (0.0002-0.0020 mg/kg-bw/day). Based on the latest EFSA guidelines (0.004 mg/kg-bw/day), the 97.5 percentile HQ of BPA intake in different age-sex groups in Taiwan posed no risks through dietary intake. However, a combination of multiple exposure routes and long-term exposure in specific populations may be of concern in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Alerts Under the COMESEP Alert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Rao, Yamini K.; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-08-01

Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the automated detection tool called Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) to detect potentially threatening CMEs, a drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival, and a CME geoeffectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, the DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and the CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. The geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with the COMESEP alert system based on a study of geoeffective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is made by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of the DBM and CGFT (independent tools available at the Hvar Observatory website, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results indicate that the success rate of the forecast in its current form is unacceptably low for a realistic operation system. Human intervention improves the forecast, but the false-alarm rate remains unacceptably high. We discuss these results and their implications for possible improvement of the COMESEP alert system.

A Signal-to-Noise Crossover Dose as the Point of Departure for Health Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Portier, Christopher J.; Krewski, Daniel

2011-01-01

Background: The U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) cancer bioassay database provides an opportunity to compare both existing and new approaches to determining points of departure (PoDs) for establishing reference doses (RfDs). Objectives: The aims of this study were a) to investigate the risk associated with the traditional PoD used in human health risk assessment [the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL)]; b) to present a new approach based on the signal-to-noise crossover dose (SNCD); and c) to compare the SNCD and SNCD-based RfD with PoDs and RfDs based on the NOAEL and benchmark dose (BMD) approaches. Methods: The complete NTP database was used as the basis for these analyses, which were performed using the Hill model. We determined NOAELs and estimated corresponding extra risks. Lower 95% confidence bounds on the BMD (BMDLs) corresponding to extra risks of 1%, 5%, and 10% (BMDL01, BMDL05, and BMDL10, respectively) were also estimated. We introduce the SNCD as a new PoD, defined as the dose where the additional risk is equal to the “background noise” (the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the two-sided 90% confidence interval on absolute risk) or a specified fraction thereof. Results: The median risk at the NOAEL was approximately 10%, and the default uncertainty factor (UF = 100) was considered most applicable to the BMDL10. Therefore, we chose a target risk of 1/1,000 (0.1/100) to derive an SNCD-based RfD by linear extrapolation. At the median, this approach provided the same RfD as the BMDL10 divided by the default UF. Conclusions: Under a standard BMD approach, the BMDL10 is considered to be the most appropriate PoD. The SNCD approach, which is based on the lowest dose at which the signal can be reliably detected, warrants further development as a PoD for human health risk assessment. PMID:21813365

Leptospirosis disease mapping with standardized morbidity ratio and Poisson-Gamma model: An analysis of Leptospirosis disease in Kelantan, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che Awang, Aznida; Azah Samat, Nor

2017-09-01

Leptospirosis is a disease caused by the infection of pathogenic species from the genus of Leptospira. Human can be infected by the leptospirosis from direct or indirect exposure to the urine of infected animals. The excretion of urine from the animal host that carries pathogenic Leptospira causes the soil or water to be contaminated. Therefore, people can become infected when they are exposed to contaminated soil and water by cut on the skin as well as open wound. It also can enter the human body by mucous membrane such nose, eyes and mouth, for example by splashing contaminated water or urine into the eyes or swallowing contaminated water or food. Currently, there is no vaccine available for the prevention or treatment of leptospirosis disease but this disease can be treated if it is diagnosed early to avoid any complication. The disease risk mapping is important in a way to control and prevention of disease. Using a good choice of statistical model will produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for leptospirosis disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method and Poisson-gamma model, which we then applied to leptospirosis data of Kelantan, Malaysia. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. The result shows that the second method Poisson-gamma model produces better relative risk estimates compared to the SMR method. This is because the Poisson-gamma model can overcome the drawback of SMR where the relative risk will become zero when there is no observed leptospirosis case in certain regions. However, the Poisson-gamma model also faced problems where the covariate adjustment for this model is difficult and no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in neighbouring areas. The problems of this model have motivated many researchers to introduce other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Assessing the differences in public health impact of salmonella subtypes using a bayesian microbial subtyping approach for source attribution.

PubMed

Pires, Sara M; Hald, Tine

2010-02-01

Salmonella is a major cause of human gastroenteritis worldwide. To prioritize interventions and assess the effectiveness of efforts to reduce illness, it is important to attribute salmonellosis to the responsible sources. Studies have suggested that some Salmonella subtypes have a higher health impact than others. Likewise, some food sources appear to have a higher impact than others. Knowledge of variability in the impact of subtypes and sources may provide valuable added information for research, risk management, and public health strategies. We developed a Bayesian model that attributes illness to specific sources and allows for a better estimation of the differences in the ability of Salmonella subtypes and food types to result in reported salmonellosis. The model accommodates data for multiple years and is based on the Danish Salmonella surveillance. The number of sporadic cases caused by different Salmonella subtypes is estimated as a function of the prevalence of these subtypes in the animal-food sources, the amount of food consumed, subtype-related factors, and source-related factors. Our results showed relative differences between Salmonella subtypes in their ability to cause disease. These differences presumably represent multiple factors, such as differences in survivability through the food chain and/or pathogenicity. The relative importance of the source-dependent factors varied considerably over the years, reflecting, among others, variability in the surveillance programs for the different animal sources. The presented model requires estimation of fewer parameters than a previously developed model, and thus allows for a better estimation of these factors to result in reported human disease. In addition, a comparison of the results of the same model using different sets of typing data revealed that the model can be applied to data with less discriminatory power, which is the only data available in many countries. In conclusion, the model allows for the estimation of relative differences between Salmonella subtypes and sources, providing results that will benefit future risk assessment or risk ranking purposes.

Dissimilarity of contemporary and historical gene flow in a wild carrot (Daucus carota) metapopulation under contrasting levels of human disturbance: implications for risk assessment and management of transgene introgression

PubMed Central

Rong, Jun; Xu, Shuhua; Meirmans, Patrick G.; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Transgene introgression from crops into wild relatives may increase the resistance of wild plants to herbicides, insects, etc. The chance of transgene introgression depends not only on the rate of hybridization and the establishment of hybrids in local wild populations, but also on the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative. The aim of the study was to estimate gene flow in a metapopulation for assessing and managing the risks of transgene introgression. Methods Wild carrots (Daucus carota) were sampled from 12 patches in a metapopulation. Eleven microsatellites were used to genotype wild carrots. Genetic structure was estimated based on the FST statistic. Contemporary (over the last several generations) and historical (over many generations) gene flow was estimated with assignment and coalescent methods, respectively. Key Results The genetic structure in the wild carrot metapopulation was moderate (FST = 0·082) and most of the genetic variation resided within patches. A pattern of isolation by distance was detected, suggesting that most of the gene flow occurred between neighbouring patches (≤1 km). The mean contemporary gene flow was 5 times higher than the historical estimate, and the correlation between them was very low. Moreover, the contemporary gene flow in roadsides was twice that in a nature reserve, and the correlation between contemporary and historical estimates was much higher in the nature reserve. Mowing of roadsides may contribute to the increase in contemporary gene flow. Simulations demonstrated that the higher contemporary gene flow could accelerate the process of transgene introgression in the metapopulation. Conclusions Human disturbance such as mowing may alter gene flow patterns in wild populations, affecting the metapopulation dynamics of wild plants and the processes of transgene introgression in the metapopulation. The risk assessment and management of transgene introgression and the control of weeds need to take metapopulation dynamics into consideration. PMID:24052560

Screening organic chemicals in commerce for emissions in the context of environmental and human exposure.

PubMed

Breivik, Knut; Arnot, Jon A; Brown, Trevor N; McLachlan, Michael S; Wania, Frank

2012-08-01

Quantitative knowledge of organic chemical release into the environment is essential to understand and predict human exposure as well as to develop rational control strategies for any substances of concern. While significant efforts have been invested to characterize and screen organic chemicals for hazardous properties, relatively less effort has been directed toward estimating emissions and hence also risks. Here, a rapid throughput method to estimate emissions of discrete organic chemicals in commerce has been developed, applied and evaluated to support screening studies aimed at ranking and identifying chemicals of potential concern. The method builds upon information in the European Union Technical Guidance Document and utilizes information on quantities in commerce (production and/or import rates), chemical function (use patterns) and physical-chemical properties to estimate emissions to air, soil and water within the OECD for five stages of the chemical life-cycle. The method is applied to 16,029 discrete substances (identified by CAS numbers) from five national and international high production volume lists. As access to consistent input data remains fragmented or even impossible, particular attention is given to estimating, evaluating and discussing uncertainties in the resulting emission scenarios. The uncertainty for individual substances typically spans 3 to 4 orders of magnitude for this initial tier screening method. Information on uncertainties in emissions is useful as any screening or categorization methods which solely rely on threshold values are at risk of leading to a significant number of either false positives or false negatives. A limited evaluation of the screening method's estimates for a sub-set of about 100 substances, compared against independent and more detailed emission scenarios presented in various European Risk Assessment Reports, highlights that up-to-date and accurate information on quantities in commerce as well as a detailed breakdown on chemical function are critically needed for developing more realistic emission scenarios.

Public health consequences of macrolide use in food animals: a deterministic risk assessment.

PubMed

Hurd, H Scott; Doores, Stephanie; Hayes, Dermot; Mathew, Alan; Maurer, John; Silley, Peter; Singer, Randall S; Jones, Ronald N

2004-05-01

The potential impact on human health from antibiotic-resistant bacteria selected by use of antibiotics in food animals has resulted in many reports and recommended actions. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine has issued Guidance Document 152, which advises veterinary drug sponsors of one potential process for conducting a qualitative risk assessment of drug use in food animals. Using this guideline, we developed a deterministic model to assess the risk from two macrolide antibiotics, tylosin and tilmicosin. The scope of modeling included all label claim uses of both macrolides in poultry, swine, and beef cattle. The Guidance Document was followed to define the hazard, which is illness (i) caused by foodborne bacteria with a resistance determinant, (ii) attributed to a specified animal-derived meat commodity, and (iii) treated with a human use drug of the same class. Risk was defined as the probability of this hazard combined with the consequence of treatment failure due to resistant Campylobacter spp. or Enterococcus faecium. A binomial event model was applied to estimate the annual risk for the U.S. general population. Parameters were derived from industry drug use surveys, scientific literature, medical guidelines, and government documents. This unique farm-to-patient risk assessment demonstrated that use of tylosin and tilmicosin in food animals presents a very low risk of human treatment failure, with an approximate annual probability of less than 1 in 10 million Campylobacter-derived and approximately 1 in 3 billion E. faecium-derived risk.

Heavy metal exposure from cooked rice grain ingestion and its potential health risks to humans from total and bioavailable forms analysis.

PubMed

Praveena, S M; Omar, N A

2017-11-15

Heavy metal in rice studies has attracted a greater concern worldwide. However, there have been limited studies on marketed rice samples although it represents a vital ingestion portion for a real estimation of human health risk. This study was aimed to determine both total and bioaccessible of trace elements and heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Co, Al, Zn, As, Pb and Fe) in 22 varieties of cooked rice using an inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy. Both total and bioaccessible of trace elements and heavy metals were digested using closed-nitric acid digestion and Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM) in vitro digestion model, respectively. Human health risks via Health Risk Assessment (HRA) were conducted to understand exposure risks involving adults and children representing Malaysian population. Zinc was the highest while As was the lowest contents for total and in their bioavailable forms. Four clusters were identified: (1) Pb, As, Co, Cd and Cr; (2) Cu and Al; (3) Fe and (4) Zn. For HRA, there was no any risks found from single element exposure. While potential carcinogenic health risks present for both adult and children from single As exposure (Life time Cancer Risk, LCR>1×10 -4 ). Total Hazard Quotient values for adult and children were 27.0 and 18.0, respectively while total LCR values for adult and children were 0.0049 and 0.0032, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA methylation-based measures of biological age: meta-analysis predicting time to death.

PubMed

Chen, Brian H; Marioni, Riccardo E; Colicino, Elena; Peters, Marjolein J; Ward-Caviness, Cavin K; Tsai, Pei-Chien; Roetker, Nicholas S; Just, Allan C; Demerath, Ellen W; Guan, Weihua; Bressler, Jan; Fornage, Myriam; Studenski, Stephanie; Vandiver, Amy R; Moore, Ann Zenobia; Tanaka, Toshiko; Kiel, Douglas P; Liang, Liming; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Murabito, Joanne M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Hernandez, Dena G; Melzer, David; Nalls, Michael; Pilling, Luke C; Price, Timothy R; Singleton, Andrew B; Gieger, Christian; Holle, Rolf; Kretschmer, Anja; Kronenberg, Florian; Kunze, Sonja; Linseisen, Jakob; Meisinger, Christine; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Waldenberger, Melanie; Visscher, Peter M; Shah, Sonia; Wray, Naomi R; McRae, Allan F; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Absher, Devin; Assimes, Themistocles; Levine, Morgan E; Lu, Ake T; Tsao, Philip S; Hou, Lifang; Manson, JoAnn E; Carty, Cara L; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Reiner, Alexander P; Spector, Tim D; Feinberg, Andrew P; Levy, Daniel; Baccarelli, Andrea; van Meurs, Joyce; Bell, Jordana T; Peters, Annette; Deary, Ian J; Pankow, James S; Ferrucci, Luigi; Horvath, Steve

2016-09-28

Estimates of biological age based on DNA methylation patterns, often referred to as "epigenetic age", "DNAm age", have been shown to be robust biomarkers of age in humans. We previously demonstrated that independent of chronological age, epigenetic age assessed in blood predicted all-cause mortality in four human cohorts. Here, we expanded our original observation to 13 different cohorts for a total sample size of 13,089 individuals, including three racial/ethnic groups. In addition, we examined whether incorporating information on blood cell composition into the epigenetic age metrics improves their predictive power for mortality. All considered measures of epigenetic age acceleration were predictive of mortality (p≤8.2x10 -9 ) , independent of chronological age, even after adjusting for additional risk factors (p<5.4x10 -4 ) , and within the racial/ethnic groups that we examined (non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, African Americans). Epigenetic age estimates that incorporated information on blood cell composition led to the smallest p-values for time to death (p=7.5x10 -43 ). Overall, this study a) strengthens the evidence that epigenetic age predicts all-cause mortality above and beyond chronological age and traditional risk factors, and b) demonstrates that epigenetic age estimates that incorporate information on blood cell counts lead to highly significant associations with all-cause mortality.

Assessment of cortical bone fracture resistance curves by fusing artificial neural networks and linear regression.

PubMed

Vukicevic, Arso M; Jovicic, Gordana R; Jovicic, Milos N; Milicevic, Vladimir L; Filipovic, Nenad D

2018-02-01

Bone injures (BI) represents one of the major health problems, together with cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Assessment of the risks associated with BI is nontrivial since fragility of human cortical bone is varying with age. Due to restrictions for performing experiments on humans, only a limited number of fracture resistance curves (R-curves) for particular ages have been reported in the literature. This study proposes a novel decision support system for the assessment of bone fracture resistance by fusing various artificial intelligence algorithms. The aim was to estimate the R-curve slope, toughness threshold and stress intensity factor using the two input parameters commonly available during a routine clinical examination: patients age and crack length. Using the data from the literature, the evolutionary assembled Artificial Neural Network was developed and used for the derivation of Linear regression (LR) models of R-curves for arbitrary age. Finally, by using the patient (age)-specific LR models and diagnosed crack size one could estimate the risk of bone fracture under given physiological conditions. Compared to the literature, we demonstrated improved performances for estimating nonlinear changes of R-curve slope (R 2 = 0.82 vs. R 2 = 0.76) and Toughness threshold with ageing (R 2 = 0.73 vs. R 2 = 0.66).

Quantitative dose-response assessment of inhalation exposures to toxic air pollutants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarabek, A.M.; Foureman, G.L.; Gift, J.S.

1997-12-31

Implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, including evaluation of residual risks. requires accurate human health risk estimates of both acute and chronic inhalation exposures to toxic air pollutants. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC, has a research program that addresses several key issues for development of improved quantitative approaches for dose-response assessment. This paper describes three projects underway in the program. Project A describes a Bayesian approach that was developed to base dose-response estimates on combined data sets and that expresses these estimates as probability density functions. A categorical regressionmore » model has been developed that allows for the combination of all available acute data, with toxicity expressed as severity categories (e.g., mild, moderate, severe), and with both duration and concentration as governing factors. Project C encompasses two refinements to uncertainty factors (UFs) often applied to extrapolate dose-response estimates from laboratory animal data to human equivalent concentrations. Traditional UFs have been based on analyses of oral administration and may not be appropriate for extrapolation of inhalation exposures. Refinement of the UF applied to account for the use of subchronic rather than chronic data was based on an analysis of data from inhalation exposures (Project C-1). Mathematical modeling using the BMD approach was used to calculate the dose-response estimates for comparison between the subchronic and chronic data so that the estimates were not subject to dose-spacing or sample size variability. The second UF that was refined for extrapolation of inhalation data was the adjustment for the use of a LOAEL rather than a NOAEL (Project C-2).« less

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling of Interstrain Variability in Trichloroethylene Metabolism in the Mouse

PubMed Central

Campbell, Jerry L.; Clewell, Harvey J.; Zhou, Yi-Hui; Wright, Fred A.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.

2014-01-01

Background: Quantitative estimation of toxicokinetic variability in the human population is a persistent challenge in risk assessment of environmental chemicals. Traditionally, interindividual differences in the population are accounted for by default assumptions or, in rare cases, are based on human toxicokinetic data. Objectives: We evaluated the utility of genetically diverse mouse strains for estimating toxicokinetic population variability for risk assessment, using trichloroethylene (TCE) metabolism as a case study. Methods: We used data on oxidative and glutathione conjugation metabolism of TCE in 16 inbred and 1 hybrid mouse strains to calibrate and extend existing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. We added one-compartment models for glutathione metabolites and a two-compartment model for dichloroacetic acid (DCA). We used a Bayesian population analysis of interstrain variability to quantify variability in TCE metabolism. Results: Concentration–time profiles for TCE metabolism to oxidative and glutathione conjugation metabolites varied across strains. Median predictions for the metabolic flux through oxidation were less variable (5-fold range) than that through glutathione conjugation (10-fold range). For oxidative metabolites, median predictions of trichloroacetic acid production were less variable (2-fold range) than DCA production (5-fold range), although the uncertainty bounds for DCA exceeded the predicted variability. Conclusions: Population PBPK modeling of genetically diverse mouse strains can provide useful quantitative estimates of toxicokinetic population variability. When extrapolated to lower doses more relevant to environmental exposures, mouse population-derived variability estimates for TCE metabolism closely matched population variability estimates previously derived from human toxicokinetic studies with TCE, highlighting the utility of mouse interstrain metabolism studies for addressing toxicokinetic variability. Citation: Chiu WA, Campbell JL Jr, Clewell HJ III, Zhou YH, Wright FA, Guyton KZ, Rusyn I. 2014. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling of interstrain variability in trichloroethylene metabolism in the mouse. Environ Health Perspect 122:456–463; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307623 PMID:24518055

Human Papillomaviruses As Therapeutic Targets in Human Cancer

PubMed Central

Hellner, Karin; Münger, Karl

2011-01-01

Cervical carcinomas are almost universally associated with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections, and are a leading cause of cancer death in women worldwide. HPV oncoproteins contribute to cancer initiation and progression and their expression is necessary for the maintenance of the transformed state. The fact that the initiating oncogenic insult, infection with a high-risk HPV and viral oncoprotein expression, is common to almost all cervical cancers offers unique opportunities for prevention, early detection, and therapy. The potential for prevention has been realized by introduction of prophylactic vaccines that are to prevent transmission of specific high-risk HPVs. Given, however, that these vaccines have no therapeutic efficacy and HPV-associated cervical cancers arise years if not decades after the initial infection, it has been estimated that there will be no measurable decline of HPV-associated tumors before 2040. Cervical cancer alone will be diagnosed in more than 375,000 US women between now and 2040. Other HPV-associated anogenital and head and neck cancers are predicted to afflict another 700,000 men and women over this time period. Hence, therapeutic efforts to combat high-risk HPV-associated disease remain of critical importance. PMID:21220591

Damage and Loss Estimation for Natural Gas Networks: The Case of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çaktı, Eser; Hancılar, Ufuk; Şeşetyan, Karin; Bıyıkoǧlu, Hikmet; Şafak, Erdal

2017-04-01

Natural gas networks are one of the major lifeline systems to support human, urban and industrial activities. The continuity of gas supply is critical for almost all functions of modern life. Under natural phenomena such as earthquakes and landslides the damages to the system elements may lead to explosions and fires compromising human life and damaging physical environment. Furthermore, the disruption in the gas supply puts human activities at risk and also results in economical losses. This study is concerned with the performance of one of the largest natural gas distribution systems in the world. Physical damages to Istanbul's natural gas network are estimated under the most recent probabilistic earthquake hazard models available, as well as under simulated ground motions from physics based models. Several vulnerability functions are used in modelling damages to system elements. A first-order assessment of monetary losses to Istanbul's natural gas distribution network is also attempted.

Application of Bayesian techniques to model the burden of human salmonellosis attributable to U.S. food commodities at the point of processing: adaptation of a Danish model.

PubMed

Guo, Chuanfa; Hoekstra, Robert M; Schroeder, Carl M; Pires, Sara Monteiro; Ong, Kanyin Liane; Hartnett, Emma; Naugle, Alecia; Harman, Jane; Bennett, Patricia; Cieslak, Paul; Scallan, Elaine; Rose, Bonnie; Holt, Kristin G; Kissler, Bonnie; Mbandi, Evelyne; Roodsari, Reza; Angulo, Frederick J; Cole, Dana

2011-04-01

Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country. © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Application of Bayesian Techniques to Model the Burden of Human Salmonellosis Attributable to U.S. Food Commodities at the Point of Processing: Adaptation of a Danish Model

PubMed Central

Guo, Chuanfa; Hoekstra, Robert M.; Schroeder, Carl M.; Pires, Sara Monteiro; Ong, Kanyin Liane; Hartnett, Emma; Naugle, Alecia; Harman, Jane; Bennett, Patricia; Cieslak, Paul; Scallan, Elaine; Rose, Bonnie; Holt, Kristin G.; Kissler, Bonnie; Mbandi, Evelyne; Roodsari, Reza; Angulo, Frederick J.

2011-01-01

Abstract Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country. PMID:21235394

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the uncertainties of the final risk estimate will be helpful to decision makers to make better informed decisions and attributing this uncertainty to the input parameters helps to identify which parameters are most important when it comes to uncertainty in the final estimate and should therefore deserve additional attention in further research.

Impact of the 1980 BEIR-III report on low-level radiation risk assessment, radiation protection guides, and public health policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1981-06-01

The author deals with the scientific basis for establishing appropriate radiation protection guides, and this effect on evaluation of societal activities concerned with the health effects in human populations exposed to low-level radiation. Methodology is discussed for estimating risks of radio-induced cancer and genetically related ill-health in man, the sources of data, the dose-response models used, and the precision ascribed to the process. (PSB)

Microbial risk assessment in heterogeneous aquifers: 2. Infection risk sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molin, S.; Cvetkovic, V.; StenströM, T. A.

2010-05-01

The entire chain of events of human disease transmitted through contaminated water, from pathogen introduction into the source (E. coli, rotavirus, and Hepatitis A), pathogen migration through the aquifer pathway, to ingestion via a supply well, and finally, the potential infection in the human host, is investigated. The health risk calculations are based on a relevant hazardous event with safe setback distances estimated by considering the infection risk from peak exposure in compliance with an acceptable level defined by a regulatory agency. A site-specific hypothetical scenario is illustrated for an aquifer with similar characteristics as the Cape Cod site, Massachusetts (United States). Relatively large variation of safe distances for the three index pathogens is found; individually, none of the index pathogens could predict the safe distance under the wide range of conditions investigated. It is shown that colloid filtration theory (CFT) with spatially variable attachment-detachment rates yields significantly different results from the effective CFT model (i.e., assuming spatially constant parameters).

Transmission of Bacterial Zoonotic Pathogens between Pets and Humans: The Role of Pet Food.

PubMed

Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Narrod, Clare; Pradhan, Abani K

2016-01-01

Recent Salmonella outbreaks associated with dry pet food and treats raised the level of concern for these products as vehicle of pathogen exposure for both pets and their owners. The need to characterize the microbiological and risk profiles of this class of products is currently not supported by sufficient specific data. This systematic review summarizes existing data on the main variables needed to support an ingredients-to-consumer quantitative risk model to (1) describe the microbial ecology of bacterial pathogens in the dry pet food production chain, (2) estimate pet exposure to pathogens through dry food consumption, and (3) assess human exposure and illness incidence due to contact with pet food and pets in the household. Risk models populated with the data here summarized will provide a tool to quantitatively address the emerging public health concerns associated with pet food and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Results of such models can provide a basis for improvements in production processes, risk communication to consumers, and regulatory action.

Using exposure bands for rapid decision making in the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) project was initiated to address and catalyze improvements in human health risk assessment. RISK21 is a problem formulation-based conceptual roadmap and risk matrix visualization tool, facilitating transparent evaluation of both hazard and exposure components. The RISK21 roadmap is exposure-driven, i.e. exposure is used as the second step (after problem formulation) to define and focus the assessment. This paper describes the exposure tiers of the RISK21 matrix and the approaches to adapt readily available information to more quickly inform exposure at a screening level. In particular, exposure look-up tables were developed from available exposure tools (European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) Targeted Risk Assessment (TRA) for worker exposure, ECETOC TRA, European Solvents Industry Group (ESIG) Generic Exposure Scenario (GES) Risk and Exposure Tool (EGRET) for consumer exposure, and USEtox for indirect exposure to humans via the environment) were tested in a hypothetical mosquito bed netting case study. A detailed WHO risk assessment for a similar mosquito net use served as a benchmark for the performance of the RISK21 approach. The case study demonstrated that the screening methodologies provided suitable conservative exposure estimates for risk assessment. The results of this effort showed that the RISK21 approach is useful f

Modeling a 15-min extravehicular activity prebreathe protocol using NASA's exploration atmosphere (56.5 kPa/34% O2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.; Conkin, Johnny; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2015-04-01

NASA's plans for future human exploration missions utilize a new atmosphere of 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2 to enable rapid extravehicular activity (EVA) capability with minimal gas losses; however, existing EVA prebreathe protocols to mitigate risk of decompression sickness (DCS) are not applicable to the new exploration atmosphere. We provide preliminary analysis of a 15-min prebreathe protocol and examine the potential benefits of intermittent recompression (IR) and an abbreviated N2 purge on crew time and gas consumables usage. A probabilistic model of decompression stress based on an established biophysical model of DCS risk was developed, providing significant (p<0.0001) prediction and goodness-of-fit with 84 cases of DCS in 668 human altitude exposures including a variety of pressure profiles. DCS risk for a 15-min prebreathe protocol was then estimated under different exploration EVA scenarios. Estimated DCS risk for all EVA scenarios modeled using the 15-min prebreathe protocol ranged between 6.1% and 12.1%. Supersaturation in neurological tissues (5- and 10-min half-time compartments) is prevented and tissue tensions in faster half-time compartments (≤40 min), where the majority of whole-body N2 is located, are reduced to about the levels (30.0 vs. 27.6 kPa) achieved during a standard Shuttle prebreathe protocol. IR reduced estimated DCS risk from 9.7% to 7.9% (1.8% reduction) and from 8.4% to 6.1% (2.3% reduction) for the scenarios modeled; the penalty of N2 reuptake during IR may be outweighed by the benefit of decreased bubble size. Savings of 75% of purge gas and time (0.22 kg gas and 6 min of crew time per person per EVA) are achievable by abbreviating the EVA suit purge to 20% N2 vs. 5% N2 at the expense of an increase in estimated DCS risk from 9.7% to 12.1% (2.4% increase). A 15-min prebreathe protocol appears feasible using the new exploration atmosphere. IR between EVAs may enable reductions in suit purge and prebreathe requirements, decompression stress, and/or suit operating pressures. Ground trial validation is required before operational implementation.

The international limits and population at risk of Plasmodium vivax transmission in 2009.

PubMed

Guerra, Carlos A; Howes, Rosalind E; Patil, Anand P; Gething, Peter W; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Temperley, William H; Kabaria, Caroline W; Tatem, Andrew J; Manh, Bui H; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Baird, J Kevin; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-08-03

A research priority for Plasmodium vivax malaria is to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of risk and its relationship with the burden of P. vivax disease in human populations. The aim of the research outlined in this article is to provide a contemporary evidence-based map of the global spatial extent of P. vivax malaria, together with estimates of the human population at risk (PAR) of any level of transmission in 2009. The most recent P. vivax case-reporting data that could be obtained for all malaria endemic countries were used to classify risk into three classes: malaria free, unstable (<0.1 case per 1,000 people per annum (p.a.)) and stable (> or =0.1 case per 1,000 p.a.) P. vivax malaria transmission. Risk areas were further constrained using temperature and aridity data based upon their relationship with parasite and vector bionomics. Medical intelligence was used to refine the spatial extent of risk in specific areas where transmission was reported to be absent (e.g., large urban areas and malaria-free islands). The PAR under each level of transmission was then derived by combining the categorical risk map with a high resolution population surface adjusted to 2009. The exclusion of large Duffy negative populations in Africa from the PAR totals was achieved using independent modelling of the gene frequency of this genetic trait. It was estimated that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some risk of P. vivax transmission in 2009, with 57.1% of them living in areas of unstable transmission. The vast majority (2.59 billion, 91.0%) were located in Central and South East (CSE) Asia, whilst the remainder were located in America (0.16 billion, 5.5%) and in the Africa+ region (0.10 billion, 3.5%). Despite evidence of ubiquitous risk of P. vivax infection in Africa, the very high prevalence of Duffy negativity throughout Central and West Africa reduced the PAR estimates substantially. After more than a century of development and control, P. vivax remains more widely distributed than P. falciparum and is a potential cause of morbidity and mortality amongst the 2.85 billion people living at risk of infection, the majority of whom are in the tropical belt of CSE Asia. The probability of infection is reduced massively across Africa by the frequency of the Duffy negative trait, but transmission does occur on the continent and is a concern for Duffy positive locals and travellers. The final map provides the spatial limits on which the endemicity of P. vivax transmission can be mapped to support future cartographic-based burden estimations.

Human cancer risk estimation for 1,3-butadiene: An assessment of personal exposure and different microenvironments.

PubMed

Huy, Lai Nguyen; Lee, Shun Cheng; Zhang, Zhuozhi

2018-03-01

This study estimated the lifetime cancer risk (LCR) attributable to 1,3-butadiene (BD) personal exposure and to other microenvironments, including residential home, outdoor, in-office, in-vehicle, and dining. Detailed life expectancy by country (WHO), inhalation rate and body weight by gender reported by USEPA were used for the calculation, focusing on adult population (25≤Age<65). LCR estimation of the adult population due to personal exposure exceeded the USEPA benchmark of 1×10 -6 in many cities. For outdoor BD exposure, LCR estimations in 45 out of 175 cities/sites (sharing 26%) exceeded the USEPA benchmark. Out of the top 20 cities having high LCR estimations, developing countries contributed 19 cities, including 14, 3, 1, 1 cities in China, India, Chile, and Pakistan. One city in the United States was in the list due to the nearby industrial facilities. The LCR calculations for BD levels found in residential home, in-vehicle and dining microenvironments also exceeded 1×10 -6 in some cities, while LCR caused by in-office BD levels had the smallest risk. Four cities/regions were used for investigating source distributions to total LCR results because of their sufficient BD data. Home exposure contributed significantly to total LCR value (ranging 56% to 86%), followed by in-vehicle (4% to 38%) and dining (4 to 7%). Outdoor microenvironment shared highly in Tianjin with 6%, whereas in-office contributed from 2-3% for all cities. High LCR estimations found in developing countries highlighted the greater cancer risk caused by BD in other cities without available measurement data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-resolution sampling and analysis of air particulate matter in the Pear River Delta region of Southern China: source apportionment and health risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, S.; Day, P. K.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matters (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected and examined in an industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the dataset by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources, biomass combustion and marine aerosol. The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) was applied to estimate the local source effects from wind direction using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk for hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Cr, Ni, Zn, V, Cu, Mn, Fe) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (total HQ =HI) of PM2.5 was 2.09, which is two times higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk was 3.37*10-3 for PM2.5, which was three orders higher than the acceptable limit (i.e. 1.0*10-6). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for human health, respectively. In additional, our results showed that industrial coal combustion source was the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study can provide new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

Applicability and feasibility of systematic review for performing evidence-based risk assessment in food and feed safety.

PubMed

Aiassa, E; Higgins, J P T; Frampton, G K; Greiner, M; Afonso, A; Amzal, B; Deeks, J; Dorne, J-L; Glanville, J; Lövei, G L; Nienstedt, K; O'connor, A M; Pullin, A S; Rajić, A; Verloo, D

2015-01-01

Food and feed safety risk assessment uses multi-parameter models to evaluate the likelihood of adverse events associated with exposure to hazards in human health, plant health, animal health, animal welfare, and the environment. Systematic review and meta-analysis are established methods for answering questions in health care, and can be implemented to minimize biases in food and feed safety risk assessment. However, no methodological frameworks exist for refining risk assessment multi-parameter models into questions suitable for systematic review, and use of meta-analysis to estimate all parameters required by a risk model may not be always feasible. This paper describes novel approaches for determining question suitability and for prioritizing questions for systematic review in this area. Risk assessment questions that aim to estimate a parameter are likely to be suitable for systematic review. Such questions can be structured by their "key elements" [e.g., for intervention questions, the population(s), intervention(s), comparator(s), and outcome(s)]. Prioritization of questions to be addressed by systematic review relies on the likely impact and related uncertainty of individual parameters in the risk model. This approach to planning and prioritizing systematic review seems to have useful implications for producing evidence-based food and feed safety risk assessment.

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Risk assessment strategies as nanomaterials transition into commercial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, Mira S.; Gurian, Patrick L.

2012-03-01

Commercial applications of nanomaterials are rapidly emerging in the marketplace. The environmental and human health risks of many nanomaterials remain unknown, and prioritizing how to efficiently assess their risks is essential. As nanomaterials are incorporated into a broader range of commercial products, their potential for environmental release and human exposure not only increases, but also becomes more difficult to model accurately. Emphasis may first be placed on estimating potential environmental exposure based on pertinent physical properties of the nanomaterials. Given that the greatest potential for global environmental impacts results from nanomaterials that are both persistent and toxic, this paper advocates screening first for persistence since it is easier to assess than toxicity. For materials that show potential for persistence, a higher burden of proof of their non-toxicity is suggested before they enter the commercial marketplace whereas a lower burden of proof may be acceptable for nanomaterials that are less persistent.

Risk assessment in man and mouse.

PubMed

Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

2009-02-17

Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

Risk assessment in man and mouse

PubMed Central

Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R.

2009-01-01

Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment. PMID:19188592

Bone disorders associated with the human immunodeficiency virus: pathogenesis and management.

PubMed

Qaqish, Roula B; Sims, Keri A

2004-10-01

Bone disorders such as osteopenia, osteoporosis, and osteonecrosis have been reported in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but the etiology and mechanism of these disorders are unknown. The prevalence estimates vary widely among studies and may be influenced by the presence or absence of antiretroviral therapy and lipodystrophy, severity of HIV disease, and overlapping bone loss risk factors. Addressing potential underlying bone disease risk factors (e.g., smoking and alcohol intake), evaluating calcium and vitamin D intake, and performing dual x-ray absorptiometry in patients with HIV who have risks for bone disease are important strategies in preventing osteopenia and osteoporosis in HIV-infected patients. Management of osteopenia and osteoporosis is still being evaluated. Administration of bisphosphonates (e.g., alendronate), with calcium and vitamin D supplementation, may be reasonable in treating osteoporosis; however, surgical intervention is the only method for treating symptomatic osteonecrosis.

The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease.

PubMed

Nouvellet, Pierre; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2013-11-01

Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8 × 10(-4) (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0] × 10(-4)). This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900-4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known not to be proportional one to another.

The Improbable Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to Human: The Missing Link in the Dynamics and Control of Chagas Disease

PubMed Central

Nouvellet, Pierre; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

2013-01-01

Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8×10−4 (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0]×10−4). This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900–4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known not to be proportional one to another. PMID:24244766

Domestic Animal Hosts Strongly Influence Human-Feeding Rates of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma infestans in Argentina

PubMed Central

Gürtler, Ricardo E.; Cecere, María C.; Vázquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.; Ceballos, Leonardo A.; Gurevitz, Juan M.; Fernández, María del Pilar; Kitron, Uriel; Cohen, Joel E.

2014-01-01

Background The host species composition in a household and their relative availability affect the host-feeding choices of blood-sucking insects and parasite transmission risks. We investigated four hypotheses regarding factors that affect blood-feeding rates, proportion of human-fed bugs (human blood index), and daily human-feeding rates of Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease. Methods A cross-sectional survey collected triatomines in human sleeping quarters (domiciles) of 49 of 270 rural houses in northwestern Argentina. We developed an improved way of estimating the human-feeding rate of domestic T. infestans populations. We fitted generalized linear mixed-effects models to a global model with six explanatory variables (chicken blood index, dog blood index, bug stage, numbers of human residents, bug abundance, and maximum temperature during the night preceding bug catch) and three response variables (daily blood-feeding rate, human blood index, and daily human-feeding rate). Coefficients were estimated via multimodel inference with model averaging. Findings Median blood-feeding intervals per late-stage bug were 4.1 days, with large variations among households. The main bloodmeal sources were humans (68%), chickens (22%), and dogs (9%). Blood-feeding rates decreased with increases in the chicken blood index. Both the human blood index and daily human-feeding rate decreased substantially with increasing proportions of chicken- or dog-fed bugs, or the presence of chickens indoors. Improved calculations estimated the mean daily human-feeding rate per late-stage bug at 0.231 (95% confidence interval, 0.157–0.305). Conclusions and Significance Based on the changing availability of chickens in domiciles during spring-summer and the much larger infectivity of dogs compared with humans, we infer that the net effects of chickens in the presence of transmission-competent hosts may be more adequately described by zoopotentiation than by zooprophylaxis. Domestic animals in domiciles profoundly affect the host-feeding choices, human-vector contact rates and parasite transmission predicted by a model based on these estimates. PMID:24852606

The role of biomarkers in evaluating human health concerns from fungal contaminants in food.

PubMed

Turner, Paul C; Flannery, Brenna; Isitt, Catherine; Ali, Mariyam; Pestka, James

2012-06-01

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites that globally contaminate an estimated 25 % of cereal crops and thus exposure is frequent in many populations. Aflatoxins, fumonisins and deoxynivalenol are amongst those mycotoxins of particular concern from a human health perspective. A number of risks to health are suggested including cancer, growth faltering, immune suppression and neural tube defects; though only the demonstrated role for aflatoxin in the aetiology of liver cancer is widely recognised. The heterogeneous distribution of mycotoxins in food restricts the usefulness of food sampling and intake estimates; instead biomarkers provide better tools for informing epidemiological investigations. Validated exposure biomarkers for aflatoxin (urinary aflatoxin M(1), aflatoxin-N7-guaunine, serum aflatoxin-albumin) were established almost 20 years ago and were critical in confirming aflatoxins as potent liver carcinogens. Validation has included demonstration of assay robustness, intake v. biomarker level, and stability of stored samples. More recently, aflatoxin exposure biomarkers are revealing concerns of growth faltering and immune suppression; importantly, they are being used to assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. For fumonisins and deoxynivalenol these steps of development and validation have significantly advanced in recent years. Such biomarkers should better inform epidemiological studies and thus improve our understanding of their potential risk to human health.

MODELING H-ARS USING HEMATOLOGICAL PARAMETERS: A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE NON-HUMAN PRIMATE AND MINIPIG.

PubMed

Bolduc, David L; Bünger, Rolf; Moroni, Maria; Blakely, William F

2016-12-01

Multiple hematological biomarkers (i.e. complete blood counts and serum chemistry parameters) were used in a multivariate linear-regression fit to create predictive algorithms for estimating the severity of hematopoietic acute radiation syndrome (H-ARS) using two different species (i.e. Göttingen Minipig and non-human primate (NHP) (Macacca mulatta)). Biomarker data were analyzed prior to irradiation and between 1-60 days (minipig) and 1-30 days (NHP) after irradiation exposures of 1.6-3.5 Gy (minipig) and 6.5 Gy (NHP) 60 Co gamma ray doses at 0.5-0.6 Gy min -1 and 0.4 Gy min -1 , respectively. Fitted radiation risk and injury categorization (RRIC) values and RRIC prediction percent accuracies were compared between the two models. Both models estimated H-ARS severity with over 80% overall predictive power and with receiver operating characteristic curve area values of 0.884 and 0.825. These results based on two animal radiation models support the concept for the use of a hematopoietic-based algorithm for predicting the risk of H-ARS in humans. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Meeting the oral health needs of 12-year-olds in China: human resources for oral health.

PubMed

Sun, Xiangyu; Bernabé, Eduardo; Liu, Xuenan; Zheng, Shuguo; Gallagher, Jennifer E

2017-06-20

An appropriate level of human resources for oral health [HROH] is required to meet the oral health needs of population, and enable maximum improvement in health outcomes. The aim of this study was to estimate the required HROH to meet the oral health needs of the World Health Organization [WHO] reference group of 12-year-olds in China and consider the implications for education, practice, policy and HROH nationally. We estimated the need of HROH to meet the needs of 12-year-olds based on secondary analysis of the epidemiological and questionnaire data from the 3rd Chinese National Oral Health Survey, including caries experience and periodontal factors (calculus), dentally-related behaviour (frequency of toothbrushing and sugar intake), and social factors (parental education). Children's risk for dental caries was classified in four levels from low (level 1) to high (level 4). We built maximum and minimum intervention models of dental care for each risk level, informed by contemporary evidence-based practice. The needs-led HROH model we used in the present study incorporated need for treatment and risk-based prevention using timings verified by experts in China. These findings were used to estimate HROH for the survey sample, extrapolated to 12-year-olds nationally and the total population, taking account of urban and rural coverage, based on different levels of clinical commitment (60-90%). We found that between 40,139 and 51,906 dental professionals were required to deliver care for 12-year-olds nationally based on 80% clinical commitment. We demonstrated that the majority of need for HROH was in the rural population (72.5%). Over 93% of HROH time was dedicated to prevention within the model. Extrapolating the results to the total population, the estimate for HROH nationally was 3.16-4.09 million to achieve national coverage; however, current HROH are only able to serve an estimated 5% of the population with minimum intervention based on a HROH spending 90% of their time in providing clinical care. The findings highlight the gap between dental workforce needs and workforce capacity in China. Significant implications for health policy and human resources for oral health in this country with a developing health system are discussed including the need for public health action.

CANCER MORTALITY AMONG UNITED STATES COUNTIES WITH HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES AND SOLE SOURCE DRINKING WATER CONTAMINATION

EPA Science Inventory

Since the late 1950's more than 750 million tons of toxic wastes have been discarded in an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 hazardous waste sies (HWS). he uncontrolled discarding of chemical wastes creates the potential for risks to human health. tilizing the National Priorities Listin...

SOURCES OF VARIATION IN TOXICOLOGICAL STUDIES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON PRECISION OF RESULTS: INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES.

EPA Science Inventory

The ultimate goal of risk assessment is to estimate the adverse effects of exposures to environmental contaminants in the population. However, populations of humans and other species vary widely in many key factors such as age, genetic makeup, gender, and health status. Any or a...

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Treesearch

M. A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; M. C. Wimberly; A. D. Baer; M. A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; J. Eidenshink; Z. Zhu

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of...

Using exposure prediction tools to link exposure and dosimetry for risk based decisions: a case study with phthalates

EPA Science Inventory

The Population Life-course Exposure to Health Effects Modeling (PLETHEM) platform being developed provides a tool that links results from emerging toxicity testing tools to exposure estimates for humans as defined by the USEPA. A reverse dosimetry case study using phthalates was ...

Effects of Welfare Reform on Vocational Education and Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dave, Dhaval M.; Reichman, Nancy E.; Corman, Hope; Das, Dhiman

2011-01-01

Exploiting variation in welfare reform across states and over time and using relevant comparison groups, this study estimates the effects of welfare reform on an important source of human capital acquisition among women at risk for relying on welfare: vocational education and training. The results suggest that welfare reform reduced enrollment in…

Effects of Endogenous Formaldehyde in Nasal Tissues on Inhaled Formmaldehyde Dosimetry Predictions in the Rat, Monkey, and Human Nasal Passages

EPA Science Inventory

ABSTRACT Formaldehyde, a nasal carcinogen, is also an endogenous compound that is present in all living cells. Due to its high solubility and reactivity, quantitative risk estimates for inhaled formaldehyde rely on internal dose calculations in the upper respiratory tract which ...

Microbial profiling, neural network and semantic web: an integrated information system for human pathogen risk management, prevention and surveillance in food safety

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is estimated that food-borne pathogens cause approximately 76 million cases of gastrointestinal illnesses, 325,000 hospitalizations, and 5,000 deaths in the United States annually. Genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic studies, particularly, genome sequencing projects are providing valuable inform...

Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control.

PubMed

Kracalik, Ian T; Kenu, Ernest; Ayamdooh, Evans Nsoh; Allegye-Cudjoe, Emmanuel; Polkuu, Paul Nokuma; Frimpong, Joseph Asamoah; Nyarko, Kofi Mensah; Bower, William A; Traxler, Rita; Blackburn, Jason K

2017-10-01

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005-2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0-175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups.

Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control

PubMed Central

Allegye-Cudjoe, Emmanuel; Polkuu, Paul Nokuma; Frimpong, Joseph Asamoah; Nyarko, Kofi Mensah; Bower, William A.; Traxler, Rita

2017-01-01

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005–2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0–175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups. PMID:29028799

Risk of Anal Cancer in Women With a Human Papillomavirus-Related Gynecological Neoplasm: Puerto Rico 1987-2013.

PubMed

Acevedo-Fontánez, Adrianna I; Suárez, Erick; Torres Cintrón, Carlos R; Ortiz, Ana P

2018-04-11

The aim of the study was to estimate the magnitude of the association between HPV-related gynecological neoplasms and secondary anal cancer among women in Puerto Rico (PR). We identified 9,489 women who had been diagnosed with a primary cervical, vaginal, or vulvar tumor during 1987-2013. To describe the trends of invasive cervical, vulvar, vaginal, and anal cancer, the age-adjusted incidence rates were estimated using the direct method (2000 US as Standard Population). Standardized incidence ratios (observed/expected) were computed using the indirect method; expected cases were calculated using 2 methods based on age-specific rates of anal cancer in PR. The ratio of standardized incidence ratios of anal cancer was estimated using the Poisson regression model to estimate the magnitude of the association between HPV-gynecologic neoplasms and secondary anal cancer. A significant increase in the incidence trend for anal cancer was observed from 1987 to 2013 (annual percent change = 1.1, p < .05), whereas from 2004 to 2013, an increase was observed for cervical cancer incidence (annual percent change = 3.3, p < .05). The risk of secondary anal cancer among women with HPV-related gynecological cancers was approximately 3 times this risk among women with non-HPV-related gynecological cancers (relative risk = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.37 to 7.79). Anal cancer is increasing among women in PR. Women with gynecological HPV-related tumors are at higher risk of secondary anal cancer as compared with women from the general population and with those with non-HPV-related gynecological cancers. Appropriate anal cancer screening guidelines for high-risk populations are needed, including women with HPV-related gynecological malignancies and potentially other cancer survivors.

Cancer incidence attributable to air pollution in Alberta in 2012

PubMed Central

Poirier, Abbey E.; Grundy, Anne; Khandwala, Farah; Friedenreich, Christine M.; Brenner, Darren R.

2017-01-01

Background: The International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified outdoor air pollution (fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) as a Group 1 lung carcinogen in humans. We aimed to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases attributable to PM2.5 exposure in Alberta in 2012. Methods: Annual average concentrations of PM2.5 in 2011 for 22 communities across Alberta were extracted from the Clean Air Strategic Alliance Data Warehouse and were population-weighted across the province. Using 7.5 µg/m3 and 3.18 µg/m3 as the annual average theoretical minimum risk concentrations of PM2.5, we estimated the proportion of the population above this cut-off to determine the population attributable risk of lung cancer due to PM2.5 exposure. Results: The mean population-weighted concentration of PM2.5 for Alberta in 2011 was 10.03 µg/m3. We estimated relative risks of 1.02 and 1.06 for theoretical minimum risk PM2.5 concentration thresholds of 7.5 µg/m3 and 3.18 µg/m3, respectively. About 1.87%-5.69% of incident lung cancer cases in Alberta were estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Interpretation: Our estimate of attributable burden is low compared to that reported in studies in other areas of the world owing to the relatively low levels of PM2.5 recorded in Alberta. Reducing PM2.5 emissions in Alberta should continue to be a priority to help decrease the burden of lung cancer in the population. PMID:28659352

Estimating the Proportion of Childhood Cancer Cases and Costs Attributable to the Environment in California.

PubMed

Nelson, Lauren; Valle, Jhaqueline; King, Galatea; Mills, Paul K; Richardson, Maxwell J; Roberts, Eric M; Smith, Daniel; English, Paul

2017-05-01

To estimate the proportion of cases and costs of the most common cancers among children aged 0 to 14 years (leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system tumors) that were attributable to preventable environmental pollution in California in 2013. We conducted a literature review to identify preventable environmental hazards associated with childhood cancer. We combined risk estimates with California-specific exposure prevalence estimates to calculate hazard-specific environmental attributable fractions (EAFs). We combined hazard-specific EAFs to estimate EAFs for each cancer and calculated an overall EAF. Estimated economic costs included annual (indirect and direct medical) and lifetime costs. Hazards associated with childhood cancer risks included tobacco smoke, residential exposures, and parental occupational exposures. Estimated EAFs for leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system cancer were 21.3% (range = 11.7%-30.9%), 16.1% (range = 15.0%-17.2%), and 2.0% (range = 1.7%-2.2%), respectively. The combined EAF was 15.1% (range = 9.4%-20.7%), representing $18.6 million (range = $11.6 to $25.5 million) in annual costs and $31 million in lifetime costs. Reducing environmental hazards and exposures in California could substantially reduce the human burden of childhood cancer and result in significant annual and lifetime savings.