Generating a geospatial database of U.S. regional feedstock production for use in evaluating the environmental footprint of biofuels.

PubMed

Holder, Christopher T; Cleland, Joshua C; LeDuc, Stephen D; Andereck, Zac; Hogan, Chris; Martin, Kristen M

2016-04-01

The potential environmental effects of increased U.S. biofuel production often vary depending upon the location and type of land used to produce biofuel feedstocks. However, complete, annual data are generally lacking regarding feedstock production by specific location. Corn is the dominant biofuel feedstock in the U.S., so here we present methods for estimating where bioethanol corn feedstock is grown annually and how much is used by U.S. ethanol biorefineries. We use geospatial software and publicly available data to map locations of biorefineries, estimate their corn feedstock requirements, and estimate the feedstock production locations and quantities. We combined these data and estimates into a Bioethanol Feedstock Geospatial Database (BFGD) for years 2005-2010. We evaluated the performance of the methods by assessing how well the feedstock geospatial model matched our estimates of locally-sourced feedstock demand. On average, the model met approximately 89 percent of the total estimated local feedstock demand across the studied years-within approximately 25-to-40 kilometers of the biorefinery in the majority of cases. We anticipate that these methods could be used for other years and feedstocks, and can be subsequently applied to estimate the environmental footprint of feedstock production. Methods used to develop the Bioethanol Feedstock Geospatial Database (BFGD) provide a means of estimating the amount and location of U.S. corn harvested for use as U.S. bioethanol feedstock. Such estimates of geospatial feedstock production may be used to evaluate environmental impacts of bioethanol production and to identify conservation priorities. The BFGD is available for 2005-2010, and the methods may be applied to additional years, locations, and potentially other biofuels and feedstocks.

Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa.

PubMed

Ardö, Jonas

2015-12-01

Africa is an important part of the global carbon cycle. It is also a continent facing potential problems due to increasing resource demand in combination with climate change-induced changes in resource supply. Quantifying the pools and fluxes constituting the terrestrial African carbon cycle is a challenge, because of uncertainties in meteorological driver data, lack of validation data, and potentially uncertain representation of important processes in major ecosystems. In this paper, terrestrial primary production estimates derived from remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model are compared and quantified for major African land cover types. Continental gross primary production estimates derived from remote sensing were higher than corresponding estimates derived from a dynamic vegetation model. However, estimates of continental net primary production from remote sensing were lower than corresponding estimates from the dynamic vegetation model. Variation was found among land cover classes, and the largest differences in gross primary production were found in the evergreen broadleaf forest. Average carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was 0.58 for the vegetation model and 0.46 for the remote sensing method. Validation versus in situ data of aboveground net primary production revealed significant positive relationships for both methods. A combination of the remote sensing method with the dynamic vegetation model did not strongly affect this relationship. Observed significant differences in estimated vegetation productivity may have several causes, including model design and temperature sensitivity. Differences in carbon use efficiency reflect underlying model assumptions. Integrating the realistic process representation of dynamic vegetation models with the high resolution observational strength of remote sensing may support realistic estimation of components of the carbon cycle and enhance resource monitoring, providing suitable validation data is available.

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide.

PubMed

Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W R; Bange, Hermann W

2012-05-05

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N(2)O and N(2)O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N(2)O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N(2)O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N(2)O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N(2)O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N(2)O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr(-1). This is in agreement with estimates of the global N(2)O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N(2)O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N(2)O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed.

Assessing potential prescription reimbursement changes: estimated acquisition costs in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Kreling, D H

1989-01-01

Potential impacts from two methods of changing prescription drug ingredient reimbursement in the Wisconsin Medicaid program were estimated. Current reimbursement amounts were compared with those resulting from either direct prices for eight manufacturers' products and average wholesale price less 10.5 percent for other products or wholesaler cost plus 5.01 percent for all products. The resulting overall average ingredient cost reimbursement reductions were 6.64 percent ($0.56 per prescription) and 6.94 percent ($0.59 per prescription) for the two methods, respectively. The results should be viewed from the perspective of both program savings and reduced pharmacists' revenues.

The impact of estimation errors on evaluations of timber production opportunities.

Treesearch

Dennis L. Schweitzer

1970-01-01

Errors in estimating costs and return, the timing of harvests, and the cost of using funds can greatly affect the apparent desirability of investments in timber production. Partial derivatives are used to measure the impact of these errors on the predicted present net worth of potential investments in timber production. Graphs that illustrate the impact of each type...

Mapping and imputing potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests using climate variables

Treesearch

Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara Barrett

2009-01-01

Regional estimation of potential forest productivity is important to diverse applications, including biofuels supply, carbon sequestration, and projections of forest growth. Using PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 Forest Inventory and Analysis plots in Oregon and Washington, we...

New Estimates of Land Use Intensity of Potential Bioethanol Production in the U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheshgi, H. S.; Song, Y.; Torkamani, S.; Jain, A. K.

2016-12-01

We estimate potential bioethanol land use intensity (the inverse of potential bioethanol yield per hectare) across the United States by modeling crop yields and conversion to bioethanol (via a fermentation pathway), based on crop field studies and conversion technology analyses. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to estimate the potential yield of four crops - corn, Miscanthus, and two variants of switchgrass (Cave-in-Rock and Alamo) - across the U.S.A. landscape for the 14-year period from 1999 through 2012, for the case with fertilizer application but without irrigation. We estimate bioethanol yield based on recent experience for corn bioethanol production from corn kernel, and current cellulosic bioethanol process design specifications under the assumption of the maximum practical harvest fraction for the energy grasses (Miscanthus and switchgrasses) and a moderate (30%) harvest fraction of corn stover. We find that each of four crops included has regions where that crop is estimated to have the lowest land use intensity (highest potential bioethanol yield per hectare). We find that minimizing potential land use intensity by including both corn and the energy grasses only improves incrementally to that of corn (using both harvested kernel and stover for bioethanol). Bioethanol land use intensity is one fundamental factor influencing the desirability of biofuels, but is not the only one; others factors include economics, competition with food production and land use, water and climate, nitrogen runoff, life-cycle emissions, and the pace of crop and technology improvement into the future.

School District Inputs and Biased Estimation of Educational Production Functions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watts, Michael

1985-01-01

In 1979, Eric Hanushek pointed out a potential problem in estimating educational production functions, particularly at the precollege level. He observed that it is frequently inappropriate to include school-system variables in equations using the individual student as the unit of observation. This study offers limited evidence supporting this…

Spatially explicit measures of production of young alewives in Lake Michigan: Linkage between essential fish habitat and recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hook, Tomas O.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Brines, Shannon J.; Mason, Doran M.; Schwab, David J.; McCormick, Michael; Desorcie, Timothy J.

2003-01-01

The identification and protection of essential habitats for early life stages of fishes are necessary to sustain fish stocks. Essential fish habitat for early life stages may be defined as areas where fish densities, growth, survival, or production rates are relatively high. To identify critical habitats for young-of-year (YOY) alewives (Alosa pseud oharengus) in Lake Michigan, we integrated bioenergetics models with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to generate spatially explicit estimates of potential population production (an index of habitat quality). These estimates were based upon YOY alewife bioenergetic growth rate potential and their salmonine predators’ consumptive demand. We compared estimates of potential population production to YOY alewife yield (an index of habitat importance). Our analysis suggested that during 1994–1995, YOY alewife habitat quality and yield varied widely throughout Lake Michigan. Spatial patterns of alewife yield were not significantly correlated to habitat quality. Various mechanisms (e.g., predator migrations, lake circulation patterns, alternative strategies) may preclude YOY alewives from concentrating in areas of high habitat quality in Lake Michigan.

Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide

PubMed Central

Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Bange, Hermann W.

2012-01-01

We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N2O and N2O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N2O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N2O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N2O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N2O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr−1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N2O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N2O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N2O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed. PMID:22451110

Assessing potential prescription reimbursement changes: Estimated acquisition costs in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Kreling, David H.

1989-01-01

Potential impacts from two methods of changing prescription drug ingredient reimbursement in the Wisconsin Medicaid program were estimated. Current reimbursement amounts were compared with those resulting from either direct prices for eight manufacturers' products and average wholesale price less 10.5 percent for other products or wholesaler cost plus 5.01 percent for all products. The resulting overall average ingredient cost reimbursement reductions were 6.64 percent ($0.56 per prescription) and 6.94 percent ($0.59 per prescription) for the two methods, respectively. The results should be viewed from the perspective of both program savings and reduced pharmacists' revenues. PMID:10313098

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity: an Australian example

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as 'opportunity cost savings', which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities. Methods Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions. Results A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million). Conclusions Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government. PMID:21943093

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity: an Australian example.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Cumming, Toby B; Sheppard, Lauren; Pearce, Dora C; Carter, Rob; Magnus, Anne

2011-09-24

Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as 'opportunity cost savings', which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities. Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions. A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million). Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government.

Potential for reduced methane and carbon dioxide emissions from livestock and pasture management in the tropics

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

2010-01-01

We estimate the potential reductions in methane and carbon dioxide emissions from several livestock and pasture management options in the mixed and rangeland-based production systems in the tropics. The impacts of adoption of improved pastures, intensifying ruminant diets, changes in land-use practices, and changing breeds of large ruminants on the production of methane and carbon dioxide are calculated for two levels of adoption: complete adoption, to estimate the upper limit to reductions in these greenhouse gases (GHGs), and optimistic but plausible adoption rates taken from the literature, where these exist. Results are expressed both in GHG per ton of livestock product and in Gt CO2-eq. We estimate that the maximum mitigation potential of these options in the land-based livestock systems in the tropics amounts to approximately 7% of the global agricultural mitigation potential to 2030. Using historical adoption rates from the literature, the plausible mitigation potential of these options could contribute approximately 4% of global agricultural GHG mitigation. This could be worth on the order of $1.3 billion per year at a price of $20 per t CO2-eq. The household-level and sociocultural impacts of some of these options warrant further study, however, because livestock have multiple roles in tropical systems that often go far beyond their productive utility. PMID:20823225

Ground water contamination and costs of pesticide restrictions in the southeastern coastal plain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danielson, L.E.; Carlson, G.A.; Liu, S.

The project developed new methodology for estimating: (1) groundwater contamination potential (GWCP) in the Southeast Coastal Plain, and (2) the potential economic impacts of selected policies that restrict pesticide use. The potential for ground water contamination was estimated by use of a simple matrix for combining ratings for both soil leaching potential and pesticide leaching potential. Key soil variables included soil texture, soil acidity and organic matter content. Key pesticide characteristics included Koc, pesticide half-life, the rate of application and the fraction of the pesticide hitting the soil. Comparisons of pesticide use from various farmer and expert opinion surveys weremore » made for pesticide groups and for individual pesticide products. Methodology for merging the GWCP changes and lost benefits from selected herbicide cancellations was developed using corn production in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Economic evaluations of pesticide cancellations for corn included national and Coastal Plain estimates for atrazine; metolachlor; dicamba; dicamba and atrazine; and dicamba, atrazine and metolachlor.« less

Predicted national productivity implications of calorie and sodium reductions in the American diet.

PubMed

Dall, Timothy M; Fulgoni, Victor L; Zhang, Yiduo; Reimers, Kristin J; Packard, Patricia T; Astwood, James D

2009-01-01

To model the potential long-term national productivity benefits from reduced daily intake of calories and sodium. Simulation based on secondary data analysis; quantitative research. Measures include absenteeism, presenteeism, disability, and premature mortality under various hypothetical dietary changes. United States. Two hundred twenty-five million adults. Findings come from a Nutrition Impact Model that combines information from national surveys, peer-reviewed studies, and government reports. We compare current estimates of national productivity loss associated with overweight, obesity, and hypertension to estimates for hypothetical scenarios in which national prevalence of these risk factors is lower. Using the simulation model, we illustrate how modest dietary change can achieve lower national prevalence of excess weight and hypertension. We estimate that permanent 100-kcal reductions in daily intake among the overweight/obese would eliminate approximately 71.2 million cases of overweight/obesity. In the long term, this could increase national productivity by $45.7 billion annually. Long-term sodium reductions of 400 mg in those with uncontrolled hypertension would eliminate about 1.5 million cases, potentially increasing productivity by $2.5 billion annually. More aggressive diet changes of 500 kcal and 1100 mg of sodium reductions yield potential productivity benefits of $133.3 and $5.8 billion, respectively. The potential long-term benefit of reduced calories and sodium, combining medical cost savings with productivity increases, ranges from $108.5 billion for moderate reductions to $255.6 billion for aggressive reductions. These findings help inform public health policy and the business case for improving diet. (AmJ Health Promot 2009;23[6]:423-430.)

An Estimation of the Potential Utilization in Iranian Pharmaceutical Industry Involved in the Stock Exchange, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Annabi, Majid; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Mohammadi, Timor; Marashi Shoshtari, Seyed Nasrolah; Abedin Dorkoosh, Farid; Pourreza, Abolghasem; Heydari, Hassan

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to measure the potential of production and the capacity used in the pharmaceutical industry. Capacity use is the actual production rate to the potential output, which reflects the gap between actual production and production capacity . Through econometric methods, translog cost function in the short run along with functions of share cost of production factors is estimated through seemingly unrelated repeated regression (SURE) as a multivariate regression analysis provided by zeller. During the study the capacity used is decreasing. The capacity used, which calculated by weighted average, also decreased and the amount during the study period is much less than the simple average of the industry. Average capacity utilization in the industry over five years of study is equal to 57% while the average capacity used calculated by the weighted of industry average is 37%. To enhance the economic potential requires a proper use of resources, creation of favorable economic structure and productivity of the industry. Due to the large amount of unused capacity in the pharmaceutical industry there is no need to invest anymore unless in new grounds and it is obvious that more investment will change using capacity.

An Estimation of the Potential Utilization in Iranian Pharmaceutical Industry Involved in the Stock Exchange, 2008-2012

PubMed Central

Annabi, Majid; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Mohammadi, Timor; Marashi Shoshtari, Seyed Nasrolah; Abedin Dorkoosh, Farid; Pourreza, Abolghasem; Heydari, Hassan

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to measure the potential of production and the capacity used in the pharmaceutical industry. Capacity use is the actual production rate to the potential output, which reflects the gap between actual production and production capacity. Through econometric methods, translog cost function in the short run along with functions of share cost of production factors is estimated through seemingly unrelated repeated regression (SURE) as a multivariate regression analysis provided by zeller. During the study the capacity used is decreasing. The capacity used, which calculated by weighted average, also decreased and the amount during the study period is much less than the simple average of the industry. Average capacity utilization in the industry over five years of study is equal to 57% while the average capacity used calculated by the weighted of industry average is 37%. To enhance the economic potential requires a proper use of resources, creation of favorable economic structure and productivity of the industry. Due to the large amount of unused capacity in the pharmaceutical industry there is no need to invest anymore unless in new grounds and it is obvious that more investment will change using capacity. PMID:29552074

Evaluating the economics of biomass energy production in the Watts Bar region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, R.R.; English, B.C.; Bhat, M.G.

1993-12-31

While the commercial potential of biofuel technology is becoming more feasible, it is not clear whether the supply of biomass feedstock will be available in competitive markets. In order to exploit the potential of biomass crops as a reliable source of biofuels, a significant commitment on the part of farmers to convert large amounts of cropland would be required. Dedicated energy crops have to compete with conventional crops which could result in significant interregional shifts in crop production. Those changes could further affect overall agricultural production, food prices, consumer spending, and government spending on farm programs. Evaluating these economic impactsmore » provides important information for the ongoing debate. This research is a case study incorporating an existing power plant. The objective of this project is to evaluate the potential of short rotation woody crops as a fuel source in the Watts Bar facility located in eastern Tennessee. The appraisal includes estimates of environmental impacts as well as of economic feasibility. This is achieved by estimating the amounts of biomass that would be supplied at a predetermined price. By changing prices of biomass at the plant in an incremental fashion, a regional supply curve for biomass is estimated. The model incorporates current agricultural production possibilities in the region along with the proposed short rotation woody crop production activities. In order to adequately model the landscape, several variables are considered. These variables include soil type, crop production, government policy, land use conversion to crop land, and distance from the plant. Environmental issues including erosion, chemical usage, and potential leaching are also incorporated within the modeling framework; however, only estimates on erosion are available in this analysis. Output from the model provides insight on where and what types of land should shift from current land use to biomass production.« less

Potential economic impact of parasites on the cattle industry of Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Parasitic diseases remain an important factor affecting the productivity of cattle in Mexico. Economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis considering the total number of animals at risk and the potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production,...

Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU—A spatially explicit model

PubMed Central

Persson, U. Martin

2017-01-01

This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates’ biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures’ carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent). PMID:28141827

Analyzing key constraints to biogas production from crop residues and manure in the EU-A spatially explicit model.

PubMed

Einarsson, Rasmus; Persson, U Martin

2017-01-01

This paper presents a spatially explicit method for making regional estimates of the potential for biogas production from crop residues and manure, accounting for key technical, biochemical, environmental and economic constraints. Methods for making such estimates are important as biofuels from agricultural residues are receiving increasing policy support from the EU and major biogas producers, such as Germany and Italy, in response to concerns over unintended negative environmental and social impacts of conventional biofuels. This analysis comprises a spatially explicit estimate of crop residue and manure production for the EU at 250 m resolution, and a biogas production model accounting for local constraints such as the sustainable removal of residues, transportation of substrates, and the substrates' biochemical suitability for anaerobic digestion. In our base scenario, the EU biogas production potential from crop residues and manure is about 0.7 EJ/year, nearly double the current EU production of biogas from agricultural substrates, most of which does not come from residues or manure. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model shows that the potential could easily be 50% higher or lower, depending on the stringency of economic, technical and biochemical constraints. We find that the potential is particularly sensitive to constraints on the substrate mixtures' carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and dry matter concentration. Hence, the potential to produce biogas from crop residues and manure in the EU depends to large extent on the possibility to overcome the challenges associated with these substrates, either by complementing them with suitable co-substrates (e.g. household waste and energy crops), or through further development of biogas technology (e.g. pretreatment of substrates and recirculation of effluent).

Linking Climate Suitability, Spread Rates and Host-Impact When Estimating the Potential Costs of Invasive Pests

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J.; Cook, David C.; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.; Stephens, Andréa E. A.; Watt, Michael S.

2013-01-01

Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand’s merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates. PMID:23405097

Developing estimates of potential demand for renewable wood energy products in Alaska

Treesearch

Allen M. Brackley; Valerie A. Barber; Cassie Pinkel

2010-01-01

Goal three of the current U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service strategy for improving the use of woody biomass is to help develop and expand markets for woody biomass products. This report is concerned with the existing volumes of renewable wood energy products (RWEP) that are currently used in Alaska and the potential demand for RWEP for residential and...

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

2010-01-01

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

Electron requirements for carbon incorporation along a diel light cycle in three marine diatom species.

PubMed

Morelle, Jérôme; Claquin, Pascal

2018-02-23

Diatoms account for about 40% of primary production in highly productive ecosystems. The development of a new generation of fluorometers has made it possible to improve estimation of the electron transport rate from photosystem II, which, when coupled with the carbon incorporation rate enables estimation of the electrons required for carbon fixation. The aim of this study was to investigate the daily dynamics of these electron requirements as a function of the diel light cycle in three relevant diatom species and to apprehend if the method of estimating the electron transport rate can lead to different pictures of the dynamics. The results confirmed the species-dependent capacity for photoacclimation under increasing light levels. Despite daily variations in the photosynthetic parameters, the results of this study underline the low daily variability of the electron requirements estimated using functional absorption of the photosystem II compared to an estimation based on a specific absorption cross section of chlorophyll a. The stability of the electron requirements throughout the day would suggest it is potentially possible to estimate high-frequency primary production by using autonomous variable fluorescence measurements from ships-of-opportunity or moorings, without taking potential daily variation in this parameter into consideration, but this result has to be confirmed on natural phytoplankton assemblages. The results obtained in this study confirm the low electron requirements of diatoms to perform photosynthesis, and suggest a potential additional source of energy for carbon fixation, as recently described in the literature for this class.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

A STELLA model to estimate water and nitrogen dynamics in a short-rotation woody crop plantation

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Jiaen Zhang; Theodor D. Leininger; Brent R. Frey

2015-01-01

Although short-rotation woody crop biomass production technology has demonstrated a promising potential to supply feedstocks for bioenergy production, the water and nutrient processes in the woody crop planation ecosystem are poorly understood. In this study, a computer model was developed to estimate the dynamics of water and nitrogen (N) species (e.g., NH4...

Potential Utility of the Real-Time TMPA-RT Precipitation Estimates in Streamflow Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Fengge; Gao, Huilin; Huffman, George J.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2010-01-01

We investigate the potential utility of the real-time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-RT) data for streamflow prediction, both through direct comparisons of TMPA-RT estimates with a gridded gauge product, and through evaluation of streamflow simulations over four tributaries of La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America using the two precipitation products. Our assessments indicate that the relative accuracy and the hydrologic performance of TMPA-RT-based streamflow simulations generally improved after February 2005. The improvements in TMPA-RT since 2005 are closely related to upgrades in the TMPA-RT algorithm in early February, 2005 which include use of additional microwave sensors (AMSR-E and AMSU-B) and implementation of different calibration schemes. Our work suggests considerable potential for hydrologic prediction using purely satellite-derived precipitation estimates (no adjustments by in situ gauges) in parts of the globe where in situ observations are sparse.

Years of potential life lost and productivity costs because of cancer mortality and for specific cancer sites where human papillomavirus may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis-United States, 2003.

PubMed

Ekwueme, Donatus U; Chesson, Harrell W; Zhang, Kevin B; Balamurugan, Appathurai

2008-11-15

Although years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality-related productivity costs comprise a substantial portion of the burden of cancers where human papillomavirus (HPV) may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis (called HPV-associated cancers in this report), estimates of these costs are limited. The authors estimated the mortality-related burden (in terms of YPLL and productivity costs) of HPV-associated cancers (without regard to the percentage of each of these cancers that could be attributed to HPV) and all malignant cancers in the United States in 2003. The authors used 2003 national mortality data and US life tables to estimate YPLL for HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. YPLL was estimated by using the life expectancy method. The human capital approach was used to estimate the value of the expected future lifetime productivity losses caused by premature deaths from HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. Indirect mortality costs were estimated as the product of the number of deaths and the expected value of individuals' future earnings, including an imputed value of housekeeping services. In 2003, HPV-associated cancers accounted for 181,026 YPLL, which represented 2.4% of the estimated 7.5 million YPLL attributable to all malignant cancers in the United States. The average number of YPLL was 21.8 per HPV-associated cancer death and 16.3 per death from overall malignant cancers. Overall, HPV-associated cancers had the largest relative contribution to YPLL in women ages 30 to 34 years. The lifetime productivity cost from mortality in 2003 was $3.7 billion for HPV-associated cancer mortality and $133.5 billion for overall malignant cancer mortality. HPV-associated cancers impose a considerable burden in terms of premature deaths and productivity losses.

Assessment of potential biomass energy production in China towards 2030 and 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guangling

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to provide a more detailed picture of potential biomass energy production in the Chinese energy system towards 2030 and 2050. Biomass for bioenergy feedstocks comes from five sources, which are agricultural crop residues, forest residues and industrial wood waste, energy crops and woody crops, animal manure, and municipal solid waste. The potential biomass production is predicted based on the resource availability. In the process of identifying biomass resources production, assumptions are made regarding arable land, marginal land, crops yields, forest growth rate, and meat consumption and waste production. Four scenarios were designed to describe the potential biomass energy production to elaborate the role of biomass energy in the Chinese energy system in 2030. The assessment shows that under certain restrictions on land availability, the maximum potential biomass energy productions are estimated to be 18,833 and 24,901 PJ in 2030 and 2050.

Assessment of potential future hydrogen markets in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kashani, A. K.

1980-01-01

Potential future hydrogen markets in the United States are assessed. Future hydrogen markets for various use sectors are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs from various alternatives is estimated, stimuli and barriers to the development of hydrogen markets are discussed, an overview of the status of technologies for the production and utilization of hydrogen is presented, and, finally, societal aspects of hydrogen production and utilization are discussed.

Potential Nationwide Improvements in Productivity and Health from Better Indoor Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisk, W.J.; Rosenfeld, A.H.

1998-05-01

Theoretical considerations and empirical data suggest that existing technologies and procedures can improve indoor environments in a manner that significantly increases productivity and health. Existing literature contains moderate to strong evidence that characteristics of buildings and indoor environments significantly influence rates of respiratory disease, allergy and asthma symptoms, sick building symptoms, and worker performance. While there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates of the magnitudes of productivity gains that may be obtained by providing better indoor environments, the projected gains are very large. For the U.S., we estimate potential annual savings and productivity gains of $6 to $19 billion frommore » reduced respiratory disease, $1 to $4 billion from reduced allergies and asthma, $10 to $20 billion from reduced sick building syndrome symptoms, and $12 to $125 billion from direct improvements in worker performance that are unrelated to health. In two example calculations, the potential financial benefits of improving indoor environments exceed costs by a factor of 8 and 14. Productivity gains that are quantified and demonstrated could serve as a strong stimulus for energy efficiency measures that simultaneously improve the indoor environment.« less

Potential nationwide improvements in productivity and health from better indoor environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisk, W.J.; Rosenfeld, A.H.

1998-07-01

Theoretical considerations and empirical data suggest that existing technologies and procedures can improve indoor environments in a manner that significantly increases productivity and health. Existing literature contains moderate to strong evidence that characteristics of buildings and indoor environments significantly influence rates of respiratory disease, allergy and asthma symptoms, sick building symptoms, and worker performance. While there is considerable uncertainty in their estimates of the magnitudes of productivity gains that may be obtained by providing better indoor environments, the projected gains are very large. For the US, the authors estimate potential annual savings and productivity gains of $6 to $19 billionmore » from reduced respiratory disease, $1 to $4 billion from reduced allergies and asthma, $10 to $20 billion from reduced sick building syndrome symptoms, and $12 to $125 billion from direct improvements in worker performance that are unrelated to health. In two example calculations, the potential financial benefits of improving indoor environments exceed costs by a factor of 8 and 14. Productivity gains that are quantified and demonstrated could serve as a strong stimulus for energy efficiency measures that simultaneously improve the indoor environment.« less

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

2005-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Projected Statewide Impact of "Opportunity Culture" School Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holly, Christen; Dean, Stephanie; Hassel, Emily Ayscue; Hassel, Bryan C.

2014-01-01

This brief estimates the impact of a statewide implementation of Opportunity Culture models, using North Carolina as an example. Impacts estimated include student learning outcomes, gross state product, teacher pay, and other career characteristics, and state income tax revenue. Estimates indicate the potential for a statewide transition to…

Incorporating exposure science into life-cycle assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate the potential for environmental damage that may be caused by a product or process, ideally before the product or process begins. LCA includes all of the steps from extracting natural resources through manufacturing through product u...

Climate change trade measures : estimating industry effects

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

Estimating the potential effects of domestic emissions pricing for industries in the United States is complex. If the United States were to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, production costs could rise for certain industries and could cause output, ...

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

Treesearch

Matthew C. Reeves; Adam L. Moreno; Karen E. Bagne; Steven W. Running

2014-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen...

Site productivity - current estimates, change, and possible enhancements for the Northern Research Station

Treesearch

Scott A. Pugh

2012-01-01

Site productivity (SP) is the inherent capacity to grow crops of industrial wood. SP identifies the potential growth in cubic feet/acre/year and is based on the culmination of mean annual increment of fully stocked natural stands. Changes in SP were summarized for timberland and the associated effects on net growth and removal estimates were investigated using data...

Estimating millet production for famine early warning: An application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thornton, P. K.; Bowen, W. T.; Ravelo, A.C.; Wilkens, P. W.; Farmer, G.; Brock, J.; Brink, J. E.

1997-01-01

Early warning of impending poor crop harvests in highly variable environments can allow policy makers the time they need to take appropriate action to ameliorate the effects of regional food shortages on vulnerable rural and urban populations. Crop production estimates for the current season can be obtained using crop simulation models and remotely sensed estimates of rainfall in real time, embedded in a geographic information system that allows simple analysis of simulation results. A prototype yield estimation system was developed for the thirty provinces of Burkina Faso. It is based on CERES-Millet, a crop simulation model of the growth and development of millet (Pennisetum spp.). The prototype was used to estimate millet production in contrasting seasons and to derive production anomaly estimates for the 1986 season. Provincial yields simulated halfway through the growing season were generally within 15% of their final (end-of-season) values. Although more work is required to produce an operational early warning system of reasonable credibility, the methodology has considerable potential for providing timely estimates of regional production of the major food crops in countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Quantifying the time lag between organic matter production and export in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of export efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stange, P.; Bach, L. T.; Le Moigne, F. A. C.; Taucher, J.; Boxhammer, T.; Riebesell, U.

2017-01-01

The ocean's potential to export carbon to depth partly depends on the fraction of primary production (PP) sinking out of the euphotic zone (i.e., the e-ratio). Measurements of PP and export flux are often performed simultaneously in the field, although there is a temporal delay between those parameters. Thus, resulting e-ratio estimates often incorrectly assume an instantaneous downward export of PP to export flux. Evaluating results from four mesocosm studies, we find that peaks in organic matter sedimentation lag chlorophyll a peaks by 2 to 15 days. We discuss the implications of these time lags (TLs) for current e-ratio estimates and evaluate potential controls of TL. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TL and the duration of chlorophyll a buildup, indicating a dependency of TL on plankton food web dynamics. This study is one step further toward time-corrected e-ratio estimates.

Industrial production and professional application of manufactured nanomaterials-enabled end products in Dutch industries: potential for exposure.

PubMed

Bekker, Cindy; Brouwer, Derk H; Tielemans, Erik; Pronk, Anjoeka

2013-04-01

In order to make full use of the opportunities while responsibly managing the risks of working with manufactured nanomaterials (MNM), we need to gain insight into the potential level of exposure to MNM in the industry. Therefore, the goal of this study was to obtain an overview of the potential MNM exposure scenarios within relevant industrial sectors, applied exposure controls, and number of workers potentially exposed to MNM in Dutch industrial sectors producing and applying MNM-enabled end products in the Netherlands. A survey was conducted in three phases: (i) identification of MNM-enabled end products; (ii) identification of relevant industrial sectors; and (iii) a tiered telephone survey to estimate actual use of the products among 40 sector organizations/knowledge centres (Tier 1), 350 randomly selected companies (Tier 2), and 110 actively searched companies (Tier 3). The most dominant industrial sectors producing or applying MNM-enabled end products (market penetration >5%) are shoe repair shops, automotive, construction, paint, metal, and textile cleaning industry. In the majority of the companies (76%), potential risks related to working with MNM are not a specific point of interest. The total number of workers potentially exposed to MNM during the production or application of MNM-enabled end products was estimated at approximately 3000 workers in the Netherlands. The results of this study will serve as a basis for in-depth exposure and health surveys that are currently planned in the Netherlands. In addition, the results can be used to identify the most relevant sectors for policy makers and future studies focussing on evaluating the risks of occupational exposure to MNM.

Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

PubMed

Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

1986-07-01

Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

Actual and potential transpiration and carbon assimilation in an irrigated poplar plantation.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun-Seok; Oren, Ram; Hinckley, Thomas M

2008-04-01

We examined the tradeoffs between stand-level water use and carbon uptake that result when biomass production of trees in plantations is maximized by removing nutrient and water limitations. A Populus trichocarpa Torr. x P. deltoides Bartr. & Marsh. plantation was irrigated and received frequent additions of nutrients to optimize biomass production. Sap flux density was measured continuously over four of the six growing-season months, supplemented with periodic measurements of leaf gas exchange and water potential. Measurements of tree diameter and height were used to estimate leaf area and biomass production based on allometric relationships. Sap flux was converted to canopy conductance and analyzed with an empirical model to isolate the effects of water limitation. Actual and soil-water-unlimited potential CO(2) uptakes were estimated with a canopy conductance constrained carbon assimilation (4C-A) scheme, which couples actual or potential canopy conductance with vertical gradients of light distribution, leaf-level conductance, maximum Rubisco capacity and maximum electron transport. Net primary production (NPP) was about 43% of gross primary production (GPP); when estimated for individual trees, this ratio was independent of tree size. Based on the NPP/GPP ratio, we found that current irrigation reduced growth by about 18% compared with growth with no water limitation. To achieve maximum growth, however, would require 70% more water for transpiration, and would reduce water-use efficiency by 27%, from 1.57 to 1.15 g stem wood C kg(-1) water. Given the economic and social values of water, plantation managers appear to have optimized water use.

Estimating potential emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations using ash inventory data.

PubMed

McCullough, Deborah G; Siegert, Nathan W

2007-10-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest native to Asia, was identified in June 2002 as the cause of widespread ash (Fraxinus spp.), mortality in southeastern Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Localized populations of A. planipennis have since been found across lower Michigan and in areas of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, and Ontario. Officials working to contain A. planipennis and managers of forestlands near A. planipennis infestations must be able to compare alternative strategies to allocate limited funds efficiently and effectively. Empirical data from a total of 148 green ash, Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh., and white ash, Fraxinus americana L., trees were used to develop models to estimate surface area of the trunk and branches by using tree diameter at breast height (dbh). Data collected from 71 additional F. pennsylvanica and F. americana trees killed by A. planipennis showed that on average, 88.9 +/- 4.6 beetles developed and emerged per m2 of surface area. Models were applied to ash inventory data collected at two outlier sites to estimate potential production of A. planipennis beetles at each site. Large trees of merchantable size (dbh > or = 26 cm) accounted for roughly 6% of all ash trees at the two sites, but they could have contributed 55-65% of the total A. planipennis production at both sites. In contrast, 75- 80% of the ash trees at the outlier sites were < or =13 cm dbh, but these small trees could have contributed only < or =12% of the potential A. planipennis production at both sites. Our results, in combination with inventory data, can be used by regulatory officials and resource managers to estimate potential A. planipennis production and to compare options for reducing A. planipennis density and slowing the rate of spread for any area of interest.

Linking climate, gross primary productivity, and site index across forests of the western United States

Treesearch

Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Philip J. Radtke

2011-01-01

Assessing forest productivity is important for developing effective management regimes and predicting future growth. Despite some important limitations, the most common means for quantifying forest stand-level potential productivity is site index (SI). Another measure of productivity is gross primary production (GPP). In this paper, SI is compared with GPP estimates...

Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, W. Kolby; Cleveland, Cory C.; Reed, Sasha C.; Miller, Norman L.; Running, Steven W.

2012-01-01

United States (U.S.) energy policy includes an expectation that bioenergy will be a substantial future energy source. In particular, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) aims to increase annual U.S. biofuel (secondary bioenergy) production by more than 3-fold, from 40 to 136 billion liters ethanol, which implies an even larger increase in biomass demand (primary energy), from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 EJ yr–1. However, our understanding of many of the factors used to establish such energy targets is far from complete, introducing significgant uncertainty into the feasibility of current estimates of bioenergy potential. Here, we utilized satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data—measured for every 1 km2 of the 7.2 million km2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S.—to estimate primary bioenergy potential (PBP). Our results indicate that PBP of the conterminous U.S. ranges from roughly 5.9 to 22.2 EJ yr–1, depending on land use. The low end of this range represents the potential when harvesting residues only, while the high end would require an annual biomass harvest over an area more than three times current U.S. agricultural extent. While EISA energy targets are theoretically achievable, we show that meeting these targets utilizing current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current crop harvest or the conversion of 60% of rangeland productivity. Accordingly, realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential are critical for effective incorporation of bioenergy into the national energy portfolio.

Estimating the system price of redox flow batteries for grid storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Seungbum; Gallagher, Kevin G.

2015-11-01

Low-cost energy storage systems are required to support extensive deployment of intermittent renewable energy on the electricity grid. Redox flow batteries have potential advantages to meet the stringent cost target for grid applications as compared to more traditional batteries based on an enclosed architecture. However, the manufacturing process and therefore potential high-volume production price of redox flow batteries is largely unquantified. We present a comprehensive assessment of a prospective production process for aqueous all vanadium flow battery and nonaqueous lithium polysulfide flow battery. The estimated investment and variable costs are translated to fixed expenses, profit, and warranty as a function of production volume. When compared to lithium-ion batteries, redox flow batteries are estimated to exhibit lower costs of manufacture, here calculated as the unit price less materials costs, owing to their simpler reactor (cell) design, lower required area, and thus simpler manufacturing process. Redox flow batteries are also projected to achieve the majority of manufacturing scale benefits at lower production volumes as compared to lithium-ion. However, this advantage is offset due to the dramatically lower present production volume of flow batteries compared to competitive technologies such as lithium-ion.

Concurrent estimates of carbon export reveal physical biases in ΔO2/Ar-based net community production estimates in the Southern California Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haskell, William Z.; Fleming, John C.

2018-07-01

Net community production (NCP) represents the amount of biologically-produced organic carbon that is available to be exported out of the surface ocean and is typically estimated using measurements of the O2/Ar ratio in the surface mixed layer under the assumption of negligible vertical transport. However, physical processes can significantly bias NCP estimates based on this in-situ tracer. It is actively debated whether discrepancies between O2/Ar-based NCP and carbon export estimates are due to differences in the location of biological production and export, or the result of physical biases. In this study, we calculate export production across the euphotic depth during two months of upwelling in Southern California in 2014, based on an estimate of the consumption rate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the dissolved: total organic carbon consumption ratio below the euphotic depth. This estimate equals the concurrent O2/Ar-based NCP estimates over the same period that are corrected for physical biases, but is significantly different than NCP estimated without a correction for vertical transport. This comparison demonstrates that concurrent physical transport estimates would significantly improve O2/Ar-based estimates of NCP, particularly in settings with vertical advection. Potential approaches to mitigate this bias are discussed.

Combined Heat and Power Market Potential for Opportunity Fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, David; Lemar, Paul

This report estimates the potential for opportunity fuel combined heat and power (CHP) applications in the United States, and provides estimates for the technical and economic market potential compared to those included in an earlier report. An opportunity fuel is any type of fuel that is not widely used when compared to traditional fossil fuels. Opportunity fuels primarily consist of biomass fuels, industrial waste products and fossil fuel derivatives. These fuels have the potential to be an economically viable source of power generation in various CHP applications.

H2@Scale: Technical and Economic Potential of Hydrogen as an Energy Intermediate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark F; Jadun, Paige; Pivovar, Bryan S

The H2@Scale concept is focused on developing hydrogen as an energy carrier and using hydrogen's properties to improve the national energy system. Specifically hydrogen has the abilities to (1) supply a clean energy source for industry and transportation and (2) increase the profitability of variable renewable electricity generators such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms by providing value for otherwise potentially-curtailed electricity. Thus the concept also has the potential to reduce oil dependency by providing a low-carbon fuel for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants such as NOx, and support domestic energymore » production, manufacturing, and U.S. economic competitiveness. The analysis reported here focuses on the potential market size and value proposition for the H2@Scale concept. It involves three analysis phases: 1. Initial phase estimating the technical potential for hydrogen markets and the resources required to meet them; 2. National-scale analysis of the economic potential for hydrogen and the interactions between willingness to pay by hydrogen users and the cost to produce hydrogen from various sources; and 3. In-depth analysis of spatial and economic issues impacting hydrogen production and utilization and the markets. Preliminary analysis of the technical potential indicates that the technical potential for hydrogen use is approximately 60 million metric tons (MMT) annually for light duty FCEVs, heavy duty vehicles, ammonia production, oil refining, biofuel hydrotreating, metals refining, and injection into the natural gas system. The technical potential of utility-scale PV and wind generation independently are much greater than that necessary to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen. Uranium, natural gas, and coal reserves are each sufficient to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen in addition to their current uses for decades to centuries. National estimates of the economic potential of hydrogen production using steam methane reforming of natural gas, high temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, and low temperature electrolysis are reported. To generate the estimates, supply curves for those technologies are used. They are compared to demand curves that describe the market size for hydrogen uses and willingness to pay for that hydrogen. Scenarios are developed at prices where supply meets demand and are used to estimate energy use, emissions, and economic impacts.« less

Potential Size of and Value Proposition for H2@Scale Concept

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark F; Jadun, Paige; Pivovar, Bryan S

The H2@Scale concept is focused on developing hydrogen as an energy carrier and using hydrogen's properties to improve the national energy system. Specifically hydrogen has the abilities to (1) supply a clean energy source for industry and transportation and (2) increase the profitability of variable renewable electricity generators such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms by providing value for otherwise potentially-curtailed electricity. Thus the concept also has the potential to reduce oil dependency by providing a low-carbon fuel for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants such as NOx, and support domestic energymore » production, manufacturing, and U.S. economic competitiveness. The analysis reported here focuses on the potential market size and value proposition for the H2@Scale concept. It involves three analysis phases: 1. Initial phase estimating the technical potential for hydrogen markets and the resources required to meet them; 2. National-scale analysis of the economic potential for hydrogen and the interactions between willingness to pay by hydrogen users and the cost to produce hydrogen from various sources; and 3. In-depth analysis of spatial and economic issues impacting hydrogen production and utilization and the markets. Preliminary analysis of the technical potential indicates that the technical potential for hydrogen use is approximately 60 million metric tons (MMT) annually for light duty FCEVs, heavy duty vehicles, ammonia production, oil refining, biofuel hydrotreating, metals refining, and injection into the natural gas system. The technical potential of utility-scale PV and wind generation independently are much greater than that necessary to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen. Uranium, natural gas, and coal reserves are each sufficient to produce 60 MMT / year hydrogen in addition to their current uses for decades to centuries. National estimates of the economic potential of hydrogen production using steam methane reforming of natural gas, high temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, and low temperature electrolysis are reported. To generate the estimates, supply curves for those technologies are used. They are compared to demand curves that describe the market size for hydrogen uses and willingness to pay for that hydrogen. Scenarios are developed at prices where supply meets demand and are used to estimate energy use, emissions, and economic impacts.« less

Estimating Subglottal Pressure from Neck-Surface Acceleration during Normal Voice Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fryd, Amanda S.; Van Stan, Jarrad H.; Hillman, Robert E.; Mehta, Daryush D.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential for estimating subglottal air pressure using a neck-surface accelerometer and to compare the accuracy of predicting subglottal air pressure relative to predicting acoustic sound pressure level (SPL). Method: Indirect estimates of subglottal pressure (P[subscript sg]') were obtained…

The cost-effectiveness of multi-purpose HIV and pregnancy prevention technologies in South Africa.

PubMed

Quaife, Matthew; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Eakle, Robyn; Cabrera Escobar, Maria A; Kilbourne-Brook, Maggie; Mvundura, Mercy; Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Vickerman, Peter

2018-03-01

A number of antiretroviral HIV prevention products are efficacious in preventing HIV infection. However, the sexual and reproductive health needs of many women extend beyond HIV prevention, and research is ongoing to develop multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs) that offer dual HIV and pregnancy protection. We do not yet know if these products will be an efficient use of constrained health resources. In this paper, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of candidate multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs), in South Africa among general population women and female sex workers (FSWs). We combined a cost model with a static model of product impact based on incidence data in South Africa to estimate the cost-effectiveness of five candidate co-formulated or co-provided MPTs: oral PrEP, intravaginal ring, injectable ARV, microbicide gel and SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel. We accounted for the preferences of end-users by predicting uptake using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Product availability and protection were systematically varied in five potential rollout scenarios. The impact model estimated the number of infections averted through decreased incidence due to product use over one year. The comparator for each scenario was current levels of male condom use, while a health system perspective was used to estimate discounted lifetime treatment costs averted per HIV infection. Product benefit was estimated in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Benefits from contraception were incorporated through adjusting the uptake of these products based on the DCE and through estimating the costs averted from avoiding unwanted pregnancies. We explore the additional impact of STI protection through increased uptake in a sensitivity analysis. At central incidence rates, all single- and multi-purpose scenarios modelled were cost-effective among FSWs and women aged 16-24, at a governmental willingness-to-pay threshold of $1175/DALY averted (range: $214-$810/DALY averted among non-dominant scenarios), however, none were cost-effective among women aged 25-49 (minimum $1706/DALY averted). The cost-effectiveness of products improved with additional protection from pregnancy. Estimates were sensitive to variation in incidence assumptions, but robust to other parameters. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a range of potential MPTs; suggesting that MPTs will be cost-effective among higher incidence FSWs or young women, but not among lower incidence older women. More work is needed to make attractive MPTs available to potential users who could use them effectively. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.

Site relationships and black walnut height growth in natural stands in eastern Kansas

Treesearch

Wayne A. Geyer; Felix, Jr. Ponder

2004-01-01

Prediction of forestland productivity is needed for proper species selection in tree planting. By relating site quality to site and soil characteristics, potential productivity can be estimated for non-forested areas. Our study measured the growth potential of black walnut in natural stands in southeastern Kansas. We looked at over 200 stands on unglaciated soils....

Methane emissions estimate from airborne measurements over a western United States natural gas field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karion, Anna; Sweeney, Colm; PéTron, Gabrielle; Frost, Gregory; Michael Hardesty, R.; Kofler, Jonathan; Miller, Ben R.; Newberger, Tim; Wolter, Sonja; Banta, Robert; Brewer, Alan; Dlugokencky, Ed; Lang, Patricia; Montzka, Stephen A.; Schnell, Russell; Tans, Pieter; Trainer, Michael; Zamora, Robert; Conley, Stephen

2013-08-01

(CH4) emissions from natural gas production are not well quantified and have the potential to offset the climate benefits of natural gas over other fossil fuels. We use atmospheric measurements in a mass balance approach to estimate CH4 emissions of 55 ± 15 × 103 kg h-1 from a natural gas and oil production field in Uintah County, Utah, on 1 day: 3 February 2012. This emission rate corresponds to 6.2%-11.7% (1σ) of average hourly natural gas production in Uintah County in the month of February. This study demonstrates the mass balance technique as a valuable tool for estimating emissions from oil and gas production regions and illustrates the need for further atmospheric measurements to determine the representativeness of our single-day estimate and to better assess inventories of CH4 emissions.

The burden of mortality with costs in productivity loss from occupational cancer in Italy.

PubMed

Binazzi, Alessandra; Scarselli, Alberto; Marinaccio, Alessandro

2013-11-01

The costs of productivity loss due to occupational cancer mortality are rarely investigated. An estimate of occupational cancer deaths in Italy in 2006 and an approximation of the resultant costs from medical and non-medical expenditures together with figures of remuneration lost are provided. Occupational cancer deaths, obtained from the application of the attributable fraction (AF) to mortality data (source: Italian National Institute of Statistics), were used to calculate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLLs), the Potential Years of Working Life Lost (PYWLLs) and the costs of the loss of productive life. The health care costs for any cancer was applied to the estimated number of occupational cancer cases to obtain the total cost. Around 8,000-8,500 deaths/year from occupational cancer are estimated to occur in Italy, corresponding to 170,000 PYLLs and more than 16,000 PYWLLs, leading to around 360,000,000 euros in indirect economic loss. Health care costs of occupational cancer are estimated at 456,000,000 euros. Occupational cancer is of major concern in terms of mortality and economic productivity loss. Preventive efforts in evaluating ongoing risks and current exposures are strongly recommended to health policy-makers. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

"Lost milk?": Counting the economic value of breast milk in gross domestic product.

PubMed

Smith, J P

2013-11-01

The contribution of breastfeeding and mothers milk to the economy is invisible in economic statistics. This article demonstrates how the economic value of human milk production can be included in economic statistics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and provides estimates for Australia, the United States, and Norway. The contribution of human milk and lactation to GDP in these countries is estimated using United Nations (System of National Accounting) guidelines and conventional economic valuation approaches to measuring production in GDP. In Australia, current human milk production levels exceed $3 billion annually. The United States has the potential to produce human milk worth more than US$110 billion a year, but currently nearly two thirds of this value is lost due to premature weaning. In Norway, production valued at US$907 million annually is 60% of its potential value. The potential loss of economic value from not protecting women's lactation and milk production from competing market pressures is large. Failure to account for mothers' milk production in GDP and other economic data has important consequences for public policy. The invisibility of human milk reduces the perceived importance of programs and regulations that protect and support women to breastfeed. The value of human milk can be measured using accepted international guidelines for calculating national income and production. It is quantitatively nontrivial and should be counted in GDP.

[Calculating the optimum size of a hemodialysis unit based on infrastructure potential].

PubMed

Avila-Palomares, Paula; López-Cervantes, Malaquías; Durán-Arenas, Luis

2010-01-01

To estimate the optimum size for hemodialysis units to maximize production given capital constraints. A national study in Mexico was conducted in 2009. Three possible methods for estimating a units optimum size were analyzed: hemodialysis services production under monopolistic market, under a perfect competitive market and production maximization given capital constraints. The third method was considered best based on the assumptions made in this paper; an optimal size unit should have 16 dialyzers (15 active and one back up dialyzer) and a purifier system able to supply all. It also requires one nephrologist, five nurses per shift, considering four shifts per day. Empirical evidence shows serious inefficiencies in the operation of units throughout the country. Most units fail to maximize production due to not fully utilizing equipment and personnel, particularly their water purifier potential which happens to be the most expensive asset for these units.

Hadronic production of the P-wave excited B{sub c} states (B{sub cJ,L=1}*)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, C.-H.; Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 2735, Beijing 100080; Wang, J.-X.

2004-12-01

Adopting the complete {alpha}{sub s}{sup 4} approach of the perturbative QCD and the updated parton distribution functions, we have estimated the hadronic production of the P-wave excited B{sub c} states (B{sub cJ,L=1}*). In the estimate, special care has been paid to the dependence of the production amplitude on the derivative of the wave function at origin which is obtained by the potential model. For experimental references, main theoretical uncertainties are discussed, and the total cross section as well as the distributions of the production with reasonable cuts at the energies of Tevatron and CERN LHC are computed and presented properly.more » The results show that the P-wave production may contribute to the B{sub c}-meson production indirectly by a factor of about 0.5 of the direct production, and according to the estimated cross section, it is further worthwhile to study the possibility of observing the P-wave production itself experimentally.« less

Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data. [Michigan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nalepka, R. F.; Colwell, J. (Principal Investigator); Rice, D. P.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. An initial demonstration was made of the capability to make direct production forecasts for winter wheat using early season LANDSAT data. The approach offers the potential to make production forecasts quickly and simply, possibly avoiding some of the complexities of alternate procedures.

Forecasting wheat and barley crop production in arid and semi-arid regions using remotely sensed primary productivity and crop phenology: A case study in Iraq.

PubMed

Qader, Sarchil Hama; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2018-02-01

Crop production and yield estimation using remotely sensed data have been studied widely, but such information is generally scarce in arid and semi-arid regions. In these regions, inter-annual variation in climatic factors (such as rainfall) combined with anthropogenic factors (such as civil war) pose major risks to food security. Thus, an operational crop production estimation and forecasting system is required to help decision-makers to make early estimates of potential food availability. Data from NASA's MODIS with official crop statistics were combined to develop an empirical regression-based model to forecast winter wheat and barley production in Iraq. The study explores remotely sensed indices representing crop productivity over the crop growing season to find the optimal correlation with crop production. The potential of three different remotely sensed indices, and information related to the phenology of crops, for forecasting crop production at the governorate level was tested and their results were validated using the leave-one-year-out approach. Despite testing several methodological approaches, and extensive spatio-temporal analysis, this paper depicts the difficulty in estimating crop yield on an annual base using current satellite low-resolution data. However, more precise estimates of crop production were possible. The result of the current research implies that the date of the maximum vegetation index (VI) offered the most accurate forecast of crop production with an average R 2 =0.70 compared to the date of MODIS EVI (Avg R 2 =0.68) and a NPP (Avg R 2 =0.66). When winter wheat and barley production were forecasted using NDVI, EVI and NPP and compared to official statistics, the relative error ranged from -20 to 20%, -45 to 28% and -48 to 22%, respectively. The research indicated that remotely sensed indices could characterize and forecast crop production more accurately than simple cropping area, which was treated as a null model against which to evaluate the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants into recycling products - A case study from Austria.

PubMed

Knapp, Julika; Allesch, Astrid; Müller, Wolfgang; Bockreis, Anke

2017-11-01

Recycling of waste materials is desirable to reduce the consumption of limited primary resources, but also includes the risk of recycling unwanted, hazardous substances. In Austria, the legal framework demands secondary products must not present a higher risk than comparable products derived from primary resources. However, the act provides no definition on how to assess this risk potential. This paper describes the development of different quantitative and qualitative methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants in recycling processes. The quantitative methods comprise the comparison of concentrations of harmful substances in recycling products to corresponding primary products and to existing limit values. The developed evaluation matrix, which considers further aspects, allows for the assessment of the qualitative risk potential. The results show that, depending on the assessed waste fraction, particular contaminants can be critical. Their concentrations were higher than in comparable primary materials and did not comply with existing limit values. On the other hand, the results show that a long-term, well-established quality control system can assure compliance with the limit values. The results of the qualitative assessment obtained with the evaluation matrix support the results of the quantitative assessment. Therefore, the evaluation matrix can be suitable to quickly screen waste streams used for recycling to estimate their potential environmental and health risks. To prevent the transfer of contaminants into product cycles, improved data of relevant substances in secondary resources are necessary. In addition, regulations for material recycling are required to assure adequate quality control measures, including limit values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

PubMed Central

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-01-01

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification. PMID:26558436

Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

PubMed

Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

2015-11-12

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Evaluation of Fuel Oxygenate Degradation in the Vadose Zone

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

Goltz (Member) date AFIT/GES/ENV/05M-05 Abstract Groundwater contamination by petroleum products poses a potential human health...this experiment. The column porosity was estimated from work conducted by a contractor, Jason Lach. An estimate of the column soil porosity

Potential benefits of remote sensing: Theoretical framework and empirical estimate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eisgruber, L. M.

1972-01-01

A theoretical framwork is outlined for estimating social returns from research and application of remote sensing. The approximate dollar magnitude is given of a particular application of remote sensing, namely estimates of corn production, soybeans, and wheat. Finally, some comments are made on the limitations of this procedure and on the implications of results.

Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

2018-01-01

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

Coalbed methane potential in the Appalachian states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee; an overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, Paul C.

1996-01-01

This report focuses on the coalbed methane (CBM) potential of the central Appalachian basin (Virginia, eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and Tennessee) and the northern Appalachian basin (Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia, Maryland, and Ohio). As of April 1996, there were about 800 wells producing CBM in the central and northern Appalachian basin. For the Appalchian basin as a whole (including the Cahaba coal field, Alabama, and excluding the Black Warrior Basin, Alabama), the total CBM production for 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995, is here estimated at 7.77, 21.51, 29.99, and 32 billion cubic feet (Bcf), respectively. These production data compare with 91.38, 104.70, 110.70, and 112.11 Bcf, respectively, for the same years for the Black Warrior Basin, which is the second largest CBM producing basin in the United States. For 1992-1995, 92-95% of central and northern Appalachian CBM production came from southwestern Virginia, which has by far the largest CBM production the Appalachian states, exclusive of Alabama. For 1994, the average daily production of CBM wells in Virginia was 119.6 Mcf/day, which is about two to four times the average daily production rates for many of the CBM wells in the northern Appalachian basin. For 1992-1995, there is a clear increase in the percentage of CBM being produced in the central and northern Appalachian basin as compared with the Black Warrior Basin. In 1992, this percentage was 8% of the combined central and northern Appalachian and Black Warrior Basin CBM production as compared with 22% in 1995. These trends imply that the Appalachian states, except for Alabama and Virginia, are in their infancy with respect to CBM production. Total in place CBM resources in the central and northern Appalachian basin have been variously estimated at 66-76 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), of which an estimated 14.55 Tcf (3.07 Tcf for central Appalachian basin and 11.48 Tcf for northern Appalachian basin) is technically recoverable according to Ricei s (1995) report. This compares with 20 Tcf in place and 2.30 Tcf as technically recoverable CBM for the Black Warrior Basin. These estimates should be considered preliminary because of unknown CBM potential in Ohio, Maryland, Tennessee, and eastern Kentucky. The largest potential for CBM development in the central Appalachian basin is in the Pocahontas coal beds, which have total gas values as much as 700 cf/ton, and in the New River coal beds. In the northern Appalachian basin, the greatest CBM potential is in the Middle Pennsylvanian Allegheny coal beds, which have total gas values as much as 252 cf/ton. Rice (1995) estimated a mean estimated ultimate recovery per well of 521 MMcfg for the central Appalachian basin and means of 121 and 216 MMcfg for the anticlinal and synclinal areas, respectively, of the northern Applachian basin. There is potential for CBM development in the Valley coal fields and Richmond basin of Virginia, the bituminous region of southeastern Kentucky, eastern Ohio, northern Tennessee, and the Georges Creek coal field of western Maryland and adjacent parts of Pennsylvania. Moreover, the Anthracite region of eastern Pennsylvania, which has the second highest known total gas content for a single coal bed (687 cf/ton) in the central and northern Appalachian basin, should be considered to have a fair to good potential for CBM development where structure, bed continuity, and permeability are favorable. CBM is mainly an undeveloped unconventional fossil-fuel resource in the central and northern Appalachian basin states, except in Virginia, and will probably contribute an increasing part of total Appalachian gas production into the next century as development in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and other Appalachian states continue. The central and northern Appalachian basins are frontier or emerging regions for CBM exploration and development, which will probably extend well into the next century. On the basis of CBM production

Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under considerationmore » by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.« less

Decision Support Tools Evaluation Report for FAS/PECAD, Version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Kenton; McKellip, Rodney; Mason, Ted; Zanoni, Vicki; Morris, Keith

2004-01-01

Global agricultral intelligence is a key element of decision support eithin the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Estimeates of production and yield issued by the USDA for both foreign and domestic agriculture are primary sources of information for policy and management decision making. The USDA monitors the major global agricultural commodities through the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of its Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Specifically, PECAD iintelligence focuses on global agricultural production and on conditions that affect food security. In conjunction with the USDA, NASA is evaluating the potential for products from NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) missions to add value to PECAD's decision support tools. NASA is usig a systems engineering approach to evaluate the potential enhancement of PECAD's decision support system (DSS)-first by understanding the components of the system and its input requirements, then by recommending NASA products that may be integrated as system inputs to improve the accuracy, quality, or efficiency of the DSS output. This report documents the evaluation phase of the systems engineering process and includes an examination of the system architecture, operations, and input requirements, as well as an initial assessment of specific ESE measurement systems and products that should be considered for their potential to enhance the PECAD DSS.

Changes in arctic and boreal ecosystem productivity in response to changes in growing season length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hmimina, G.; Yu, R.; Billesbach, D. P.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Gamon, J. A.

2017-12-01

Large-scale greening and browning trends have been reported in northern terrestrial ecosystems over the last two decades. The greening is interpreted as an increased productivity in response to increases in temperature. Boreal and arctic ecosystem productivity is expected to increase as the length of growing seasons increases, resulting in a bigger northern carbon sink pool. While evidences of such greening based on the use of remotely-sensed vegetation indices are compelling, analysis over the sparse network of flux tower sites available in northern latitudes paint a more complex story, and raise some issues as to whether vegetation indices based on NIR reflectance at large spatial scales are suited to the analysis of very fragmented landscapes that exhibit strong patterns in snow and standing water cover. In a broader sense, whether "greenness" is a sufficiently good proxy of ecosystem productivity in northern latitudes is unclear. The current work focused on deriving continuous estimates of ecosystem potential productivity and photosynthesis limitation over a network of flux towers, and on analyzing the relationships between potential yearly productivity and the length of the growing season over time and space. A novel partitioning method was used to derive ecophysiological parameters from sparse carbon fluxes measurements, and those parameters were then used to delimit the growing season and to estimate potential yearly productivity over a wide range of ecosystems. The relationships obtained between those two metrics were then computed for each of the 23 studied sites, exhibiting a wide range of different responses to changes in growing season length. While an overall significant increasing productivity trend was found (R²=0.12) suggesting increased productivity, the more northern sites exhibited a consistent decreasing trend (0.11 The attribution of these trends to either changes in potential productivity or productivity limitation by abiotic factors will be discussed, as well as the potential of extending this analysis over space by using remote-sensing data along with flux tower data.

Greenhouse-gas Consequences of US Corn-based Ethanol in a Flat World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, E. A.; Coe, M. T.; Nepstad, D. C.; Donner, S. D.; Bustamante, M. M.; Neill, C.

2008-12-01

Competition for arable land is now occurring among food, fiber, and fuel production sectors. In the USA, increased corn production for ethanol has come primarily at the expense of reduced soybean production. Only a few countries, mainly Brazil, have appropriate soils, climate, and infrastructure needed for large absolute increases in cropped area in the next decade that could make up the lost US soybean production. Our objective is to improve estimates of the potential net greenhouse gas (GHG) consequences, both domestically and in Brazil, of meeting the new goals established by the US Congress for expansion of corn- based ethanol in the USA. To meet this goal of 57 billion liters per year of corn-based ethanol production, an additional 1-7 million hectares will need to be planted in corn, depending upon assumptions regarding future increases in corn yield. Net GHG emissions saved in the USA by substituting ethanol for gasoline are estimated at 14 Tg CO2-equivalents once the production goal of 57 million L/yr is reached. If reduced US soybean production caused by this increase in US corn planting results in a compensatory increase in Brazilian production of soybeans in the Cerrado and Amazon regions, we estimate a potential net release of 1800 to 9100 Tg CO2-equivalents of GHG emissions due to land-use change. Many opportunities exist for agricultural intensification that would minimize new land clearing and its environmental impacts, but if Brazilian deforestation is held to only 15% of the area estimated here to compensate lost US soybean production, the GHG mitigation of US corn-based ethanol production during the next 15 years would be more than offset by emissions from Brazilian land-use change. Other motivations for advancing corn-based ethanol production in the USA, such as reduced reliance on foreign oil and increased prosperity for farming communities, must be considered separately, but the greenhouse-gas-mitigation rationale is clearly unsupportable.

CONTROL TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW REPORT: CFC (CHLOROFLUOROCARBON) EMISSIONS FROM RIGID FOAM MANUFACTURING

EPA Science Inventory

The report estimates total chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions from the various rigid foam manufacturing processes and from the foam products themselves, and examines potential methods for reducing these emissions. Options studied include replacement of CFC-blown products with alt...

Reconciling Agricultural Needs with Biodiversity and Carbon Conservation in a Savanna Transformation Frontier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiegel, M. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.; Searchinger, T.

2015-12-01

Zambia is a major hotspot for agricultural development in the African savannas, which will be targeted for agricultural expansion to relieve food shortages and economic insecurity in the next few decades. Recent scholarship rejects the assumption that the large reserves of arable land in the African savannas could be converted to cropland with low ecological costs. In light of these findings, the selection of land for agricultural expansion must consider not only its potential productivity, but also the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss that would result from the land conversion. To examine these tradeoffs, we have developed a multi-objective optimization technique to seek scenarios for agricultural development in Zambia that simultaneously achieve production targets and minimize carbon, biodiversity, and economic cost constraints, while factoring in the inter-annual variability in crop production in this highly uncertain climate. Potential production is determined from well-characterized yield potential estimates while robust metrics of biodiversity and high resolution mapping of carbon storage provide fine scale estimates of ecological impact. We draw production targets for individual crops from potential development pathways, primarily export, commodity-crop driven expansion and identify ecologically responsible agricultural development scenarios that are resilient to climate change and meet these demands. In order to achieve a doubling of production of nine key crops, assuming a modest 20% overall increase in yield potential, we find a range of scenarios that use less than 1600 km2 of new land without infringing on any protected areas or exceeding 6.7 million tons of carbon emissions.

Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity.

PubMed

Fetzel, Tamara; Havlik, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Erb, Karl-Heinz

2017-04-01

Increasing food production is essential to meet the future food demand of a growing world population. In light of pressing sustainability challenges such as climate change and the importance of the global livestock system for food security as well as GHG emissions, finding ways to increasing food production sustainably and without increasing competition for food crops is essential. Yet, many unknowns relate to livestock grazing, in particular grazing intensity, an essential variable to assess the sustainability of livestock systems. Here, we explore ecological limits to grazing intensity (GI; i.e. the fraction of net primary production consumed by grazing animals) by analysing the role of seasonality in natural grasslands. We estimate seasonal limitations to GI by combining monthly net primary production data and a map of global livestock distribution with assumptions on the length of nonfavourable periods that can be bridged by livestock (e.g. by browsing dead standing biomass, storage systems or biomass conservation). This allows us to derive a seasonality-limited potential GI, which we compare with the GI prevailing in 2000. We find that GI in 2000 lies below its potential on 39% of the total global natural grasslands, which has a potential for increasing biomass extraction of up to 181 MtC/yr. In contrast, on 61% of the area GI exceeds the potential, made possible by management. Mobilizing this potential could increase milk production by 5%, meat production by 4% or contribute to free up to 2.8 Mio km² of grassland area at the global scale if the numerous socio-ecological constraints can be overcome. We discuss socio-ecological trade-offs, which may reduce the estimated potential considerably and require the establishment of sound monitoring systems and an improved understanding of livestock system's role in the Earth system. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Classification and area estimation of land covers in Kansas using ground-gathered and LANDSAT digital data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

May, G. A.; Holko, M. L.; Anderson, J. E.

1983-01-01

Ground-gathered data and LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) digital data from 1981 were analyzed to produce a classification of Kansas land areas into specific types called land covers. The land covers included rangeland, forest, residential, commercial/industrial, and various types of water. The analysis produced two outputs: acreage estimates with measures of precision, and map-type or photo products of the classification which can be overlaid on maps at specific scales. State-level acreage estimates were obtained and substate-level land cover classification overlays and estimates were generated for selected geographical areas. These products were found to be of potential use in managing land and water resources.

Environmental technologies of woody crop production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land degradation is a threat to global sustainability with an estimated 25% of the world’s land area already degraded. Soil erosion, loss of productivity potential, biodiversity loss, water shortage, and soil pollution are ongoing processes that decrease or degrade ecosystem services. Degradation ra...

Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The potential impact of global temperature change on global wheat production has recently been assessed with different methods, scaling and aggregation approaches. Here we show that grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, and statistical regressions produce similar estimates of temperature ...

Developing a Model to Estimate Freshwater Gross Primary Production Using MODIS Surface Temperature Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saberi, S. J.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Solomon, C.; Boucher, J. M.

2016-12-01

Lakes contribute to local and regional climate conditions, cycle nutrients, and are viable indicators of climate change due to their sensitivity to disturbances in their water and airsheds. Utilizing spaceborne remote sensing (RS) techniques has considerable potential in studying lake dynamics because it allows for coherent and consistent spatial and temporal observations as well as estimates of lake functions without in situ measurements. However, in order for RS products to be useful, algorithms that relate in situ measurements to RS data must be developed. Estimates of lake metabolic rates are of particular scientific interest since they are indicative of lakes' roles in carbon cycling and ecological function. Currently, there are few existing algorithms relating remote sensing products to in-lake estimates of metabolic rates and more in-depth studies are still required. Here we use satellite surface temperature observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product (MYD11A2) and published in-lake gross primary production (GPP) estimates for eleven globally distributed lakes during a one-year period to produce a univariate quadratic equation model. The general model was validated using other lakes during an equivalent one-year time period (R2=0.76). The statistical analyses reveal significant positive relationships between MODIS temperature data and the previously modeled in-lake GPP. Lake-specific models for Lake Mendota (USA), Rotorua (New Zealand), and Taihu (China) showed stronger relationships than the general combined model, pointing to local influences such as watershed characteristics on in-lake GPP in some cases. These validation data suggest that the developed algorithm has a potential to predict lake GPP on a global scale.

Machine Learning Estimates of Natural Product Conformational Energies

PubMed Central

Rupp, Matthias; Bauer, Matthias R.; Wilcken, Rainer; Lange, Andreas; Reutlinger, Michael; Boeckler, Frank M.; Schneider, Gisbert

2014-01-01

Machine learning has been used for estimation of potential energy surfaces to speed up molecular dynamics simulations of small systems. We demonstrate that this approach is feasible for significantly larger, structurally complex molecules, taking the natural product Archazolid A, a potent inhibitor of vacuolar-type ATPase, from the myxobacterium Archangium gephyra as an example. Our model estimates energies of new conformations by exploiting information from previous calculations via Gaussian process regression. Predictive variance is used to assess whether a conformation is in the interpolation region, allowing a controlled trade-off between prediction accuracy and computational speed-up. For energies of relaxed conformations at the density functional level of theory (implicit solvent, DFT/BLYP-disp3/def2-TZVP), mean absolute errors of less than 1 kcal/mol were achieved. The study demonstrates that predictive machine learning models can be developed for structurally complex, pharmaceutically relevant compounds, potentially enabling considerable speed-ups in simulations of larger molecular structures. PMID:24453952

Modelling supply and demand of bioenergy from short rotation coppice and Miscanthus in the UK.

PubMed

Bauen, A W; Dunnett, A J; Richter, G M; Dailey, A G; Aylott, M; Casella, E; Taylor, G

2010-11-01

Biomass from lignocellulosic energy crops can contribute to primary energy supply in the short term in heat and electricity applications and in the longer term in transport fuel applications. This paper estimates the optimal feedstock allocation of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic energy crops for England and Wales based on empirical productivity models. Yield maps for Miscanthus, willow and poplar, constrained by climatic, soil and land use factors, are used to estimate the potential resource. An energy crop supply-cost curve is estimated based on the resource distribution and associated production costs. The spatial resource model is then used to inform the supply of biomass to geographically distributed demand centres, with co-firing plants used as an illustration. Finally, the potential contribution of energy crops to UK primary energy and renewable energy targets is discussed. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alternative Land-Use Scenarios for Bioenergy Production in the U.S. and Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. E.; Spak, S.; Tsao, C. C.; Mena, M.; Chen, Y.

2015-12-01

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be enhanced by growing demand for biofuels. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories and agronomic models to characterize land-use impacts and mitigation scenarios for bioenergy production in the U.S. and Brazil. In the U.S., our gridded historical cropland maps show potential for production in the U.S. on 68 Mha of abandoned croplands in the U.S. which is as much as 70% larger than previous estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. In Brazil, a critical land-use impact is associated with non-GHG air pollutants from the management and expansion of sugarcane feedstocks. Our bottom-up estimate for these Brazilian land-use emissions is seven times larger than estimated from remote-sensing data due to the improved spatial resolution of our approach. While current land-use policies in Brazil and the U.S. seek to reduce life-cycle biofuel emissions, these policies may not support the mitigation alternatives identified here.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Anthoff, David; Rose, Steven K.

We use FUND 3.8 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. The damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide—is also estimated. The damage potentials are compared to several metrics, focusing in particular on the global warming potentials, which are frequently used to measure the trade-off between gases in the form of carbon dioxide equivalents. We find that damage potentials could be significantly higher than global warming potentials. This finding implies that previous papersmore » have underestimated the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from an economic damage perspective. We show results for a range of sensitivity analyses: carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture productivity, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. The sensitivity of the results to carbon dioxide fertilization is a primary focus as it is an important element of climate change that has not been considered in much of the previous literature. We estimate that carbon dioxide fertilization has a large positive impact that reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide with a much smaller effect on the other greenhouse gases. As a result, our estimates of the damage potentials of methane and nitrous oxide are much higher compared to estimates that ignore carbon dioxide fertilization. As a result, our base estimates of the damage potential for methane and nitrous oxide that include carbon dioxide fertilization are twice their respective global warming potentials. Our base estimate of the damage potential of sulphur hexafluoride is similar to the one previous estimate, both almost three times the global warming potential.« less

The California Biomass Crop Adoption Model estimates biofuel feedstock crop production across diverse agro-ecological zones within the state, under different future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaffka, S.; Jenner, M.; Bucaram, S.; George, N.

2012-12-01

Both regulators and businesses need realistic estimates for the potential production of biomass feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts. This includes the need to understand how climate change will affect mid-tem and longer-term crop performance and relative advantage. The California Biomass Crop Adoption Model is a partial mathematical programming optimization model that estimates the profit level needed for new crop adoption, and the crop(s) displaced when a biomass feedstock crop is added to the state's diverse set of cropping systems, in diverse regions of the state. Both yield and crop price, as elements of profit, can be varied. Crop adoption is tested against current farmer preferences derived from analysis of 10 years crop production data for all crops produced in California, collected by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation. Analysis of this extensive data set resulted in 45 distinctive, representative farming systems distributed across the state's diverse agro-ecological regions. Estimated yields and water use are derived from field trials combined with crop simulation, reported elsewhere. Crop simulation is carried out under different weather and climate assumptions. Besides crop adoption and displacement, crop resource use is also accounted, derived from partial budgets used for each crop's cost of production. Systematically increasing biofuel crop price identified areas of the state where different types of crops were most likely to be adopted. Oilseed crops like canola that can be used for biodiesel production had the greatest potential to be grown in the Sacramento Valley and other northern regions, while sugar beets (for ethanol) had the greatest potential in the northern San Joaquin Valley region, and sweet sorghum in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Up to approximately 10% of existing annual cropland in California was available for new crop adoption. New crops are adopted if the entire cropping system becomes more profitable. In particular, canola production resulted in less overall water use but increased farm profits. Most crop substitutions were resource neutral. If future climate is drier, more winter annual crops like canola are likely to be adopted. Crop displacement is also important for determining market-mediated effects of biomass crop production. Correctly estimating crop displacement at the local scale greatly improves upon estimates for indirect land use change derived from the macro-scale PE and CGE models currently used by US EPA and the California Air Resources Board.

Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Guinea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Van Bockstael, Mark; Diaby, Mamadou; Cissé, Kabinet; Diallo, Thierno Amadou; Sano, Mahmoud

2012-01-01

In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that export shipments of rough diamonds were free of conflict concerns. Outcomes of the meeting were formally supported later in December of 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. The goal of this study was to estimate the alluvial diamond resource endowment and the current production capacity of the alluvial diamond mining sector of Guinea. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within Guinea's diamondiferous regions, while the diamond-production capacity of these zones was estimated by inputting the number of artisanal miners, the number of days artisans work per year, and the average grade of the deposits into a formulaic expression. Guinea's resource potential was estimated to be approximately 40 million carats, while the production capacity was estimated to lie within a range of 480,000 to 720,000 carats per year. While preliminary results have been produced by integrating historical documents, five fieldwork campaigns, and remote sensing and GIS analysis, significant data gaps remain. The artisanal mining sector is dynamic and is affected by a variety of internal and external factors. Estimates of the number of artisans and deposit variables, such as grade, vary from site to site and from zone to zone. This report has been developed on the basis of the most detailed information available at this time. However, continued fieldwork and evaluation of artisanally mined deposits would increase the accuracy of the results.

What are the cost savings associated with providing access to specialist care through the Champlain BASE eConsult service? A costing evaluation.

PubMed

Liddy, Clare; Drosinis, Paul; Deri Armstrong, Catherine; McKellips, Fanny; Afkham, Amir; Keely, Erin

2016-06-23

This study estimates the costs and potential savings associated with all eConsult cases completed between 1 April 2014 and 31 March 2015. Costing evaluation from the societal perspective estimating the costs and potential savings associated with all eConsults completed during the study period. Champlain health region in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Primary care providers and specialists registered to use the eConsult service. Costs included (1) delivery costs; (2) specialist remuneration; (3) costs associated with traditional (face-to-face) referrals initiated as a result of eConsult. Potential savings included (1) costs of traditional referrals avoided; (2) indirect patient savings through avoided travel and lost wages/productivity. Net potential societal cost savings were estimated by subtracting total costs from total potential savings. A total of 3487 eConsults were completed during the study period. In 40% of eConsults, a face-to-face specialist visit was originally contemplated but avoided as result of eConsult. In 3% of eConsults, a face-to-face specialist visit was not originally contemplated but was prompted as a result of the eConsult. From the societal perspective, total costs were estimated at $207 787 and total potential savings were $246 516. eConsult led to a net societal saving of $38 729 or $11 per eConsult. Our findings demonstrate potential cost savings from the societal perspective, as patients avoided the travel costs and lost wages/productivity associated with face-to-face specialist visits. Greater savings are expected once we account for other costs such as avoided tests and visits and potential improved health outcomes associated with shorter wait times. Our findings are valuable for healthcare delivery decision-makers as they seek solutions to improve care in a patient-centred and efficient manner. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Productivity cost calculations in health economic evaluations: correcting for compensation mechanisms and multiplier effects.

PubMed

Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner B F; Severens, Johan L; Kaper, Janneke; Evers, Silvia M A A

2012-12-01

Productivity costs related to paid work are commonly calculated in economic evaluations of health technologies by multiplying the relevant number of work days lost with a wage rate estimate. It has been argued that actual productivity costs may either be lower or higher than current estimates due to compensation mechanisms and/or multiplier effects (related to team dependency and problems with finding good substitutes in cases of absenteeism). Empirical evidence on such mechanisms and their impact on productivity costs is scarce, however. This study aims to increase knowledge on how diminished productivity is compensated within firms. Moreover, it aims to explore how compensation and multiplier effects potentially affect productivity cost estimates. Absenteeism and compensation mechanisms were measured in a randomized trial among Dutch citizens examining the cost-effectiveness of reimbursement for smoking cessation treatment. Multiplier effects were extracted from published literature. Productivity costs were calculated applying the Friction Cost Approach. Regular estimates were subsequently adjusted for (i) compensation during regular working hours, (ii) job dependent multipliers and (iii) both compensation and multiplier effects. A total of 187 respondents included in the trial were useful for inclusion in this study, based on being in paid employment, having experienced absenteeism in the preceding six months and completing the questionnaire on absenteeism and compensation mechanisms. Over half of these respondents stated that their absenteeism was compensated during normal working hours by themselves or colleagues. Only counting productivity costs not compensated in regular working hours reduced the traditional estimate by 57%. Correcting for multiplier effects increased regular estimates by a quarter. Combining both impacts decreased traditional estimates by 29%. To conclude, large amounts of lost production are compensated in normal hours. Productivity costs estimates are strongly influenced by adjustment for compensation mechanisms and multiplier effects. The validity of such adjustments needs further examination, however. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposed Method for Estimating Health-Promoting Glucosinolates and Hydrolysis Products in Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) Using Relative Transcript Abundance.

PubMed

Becker, Talon M; Jeffery, Elizabeth H; Juvik, John A

2017-01-18

Due to the importance of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products in human nutrition and plant defense, optimizing the content of these compounds is a frequent breeding objective for Brassica crops. Toward this goal, we investigated the feasibility of using models built from relative transcript abundance data for the prediction of glucosinolate and hydrolysis product concentrations in broccoli. We report that predictive models explaining at least 50% of the variation for a number of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products can be built for prediction within the same season, but prediction accuracy decreased when using models built from one season's data for prediction of an opposing season. This method of phytochemical profile prediction could potentially allow for lower phytochemical phenotyping costs and larger breeding populations. This, in turn, could improve selection efficiency for phase II induction potential, a type of chemopreventive bioactivity, by allowing for the quick and relatively cheap content estimation of phytochemicals known to influence the trait.

Unconventional shale-gas systems: The Mississippian Barnett Shale of north-central Texas as one model for thermogenic shale-gas assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarvie, D.M.; Hill, R.J.; Ruble, T.E.; Pollastro, R.M.

2007-01-01

Shale-gas resource plays can be distinguished by gas type and system characteristics. The Newark East gas field, located in the Fort Worth Basin, Texas, is defined by thermogenic gas production from low-porosity and low-permeability Barnett Shale. The Barnett Shale gas system, a self-contained source-reservoir system, has generated large amounts of gas in the key productive areas because of various characteristics and processes, including (1) excellent original organic richness and generation potential; (2) primary and secondary cracking of kerogen and retained oil, respectively; (3) retention of oil for cracking to gas by adsorption; (4) porosity resulting from organic matter decomposition; and (5) brittle mineralogical composition. The calculated total gas in place (GIP) based on estimated ultimate recovery that is based on production profiles and operator estimates is about 204 bcf/section (5.78 ?? 109 m3/1.73 ?? 104 m3). We estimate that the Barnett Shale has a total generation potential of about 609 bbl of oil equivalent/ac-ft or the equivalent of 3657 mcf/ac-ft (84.0 m3/m3). Assuming a thickness of 350 ft (107 m) and only sufficient hydrogen for partial cracking of retained oil to gas, a total generation potential of 820 bcf/section is estimated. Of this potential, approximately 60% was expelled, and the balance was retained for secondary cracking of oil to gas, if sufficient thermal maturity was reached. Gas storage capacity of the Barnett Shale at typical reservoir pressure, volume, and temperature conditions and 6% porosity shows a maximum storage capacity of 540 mcf/ac-ft or 159 scf/ton. Copyright ?? 2007. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

There are many opportunities to leverage agricultural resources on existing lands without interfering with production of food, feed, fiber, or forest products. In the recently developed advanced biomass feedstock commercialization vision, estimates of potentially available biomass supply from agriculture are built upon the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) Long-Term Forecast, ensuring that existing product demands are met before biomass crops are planted. Dedicated biomass energy crops and agricultural crop residues are abundant, diverse, and widely distributed across the United States. These potential biomass supplies can play an important role in a national biofuels commercialization strategy.

Characterization and ethanol potential from giant cassava (Manihot esculenta) stem waste biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Septia, E.; Supriadi; Suwinarti, W.; Amirta, R.

2018-04-01

Manihot esculenta stem waste biomass is promising material for ethanol production since it is unutilized substance from cassava production. Nowadays, cassava is the most common food in Indonesian society. The aims of this study were to identify availability and characteristic of giant cassava (M. esculenta) stem waste biomass for ethanol feedstock. In term of that, four plots with the size of 5m x 5m were made to calculate the total stem biomass obtained after harvesting process. In this study, various concentrations of alkaline were used to degrade lignin from the substrate. The effects of alkaline pretreatment were investigated using TAPPI method and the ethanol yield was estimated using modified NREL protocol. The results showed that the potential dry stem waste biomass from harvesting of M. esculenta was approximately 10.5 ton/ha. Further, alkaline pretreatment of stem waste biomass with 2% of NaOH coupled with the enzymatic saccharification process using meicelase was showed the highest production of sugar to reach of 38.49 % of total reduction sugar and estimated potentially converted to 2,62 L/ha of ethanol. We suggested M. esculenta stem waste biomass could be used as sustainable feedstock for ethanol production in Indonesia.

A Two-Stage Method to Determine Optimal Product Sampling considering Dynamic Potential Market

PubMed Central

Hu, Zhineng; Lu, Wei; Han, Bing

2015-01-01

This paper develops an optimization model for the diffusion effects of free samples under dynamic changes in potential market based on the characteristics of independent product and presents a two-stage method to figure out the sampling level. The impact analysis of the key factors on the sampling level shows that the increase of the external coefficient or internal coefficient has a negative influence on the sampling level. And the changing rate of the potential market has no significant influence on the sampling level whereas the repeat purchase has a positive one. Using logistic analysis and regression analysis, the global sensitivity analysis gives a whole analysis of the interaction of all parameters, which provides a two-stage method to estimate the impact of the relevant parameters in the case of inaccuracy of the parameters and to be able to construct a 95% confidence interval for the predicted sampling level. Finally, the paper provides the operational steps to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimation and an innovational way to estimate the sampling level. PMID:25821847

Bandwidth Study on Energy Use and Potential Energy Saving Opportunities in U.S. Chemical Manufacturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sabine Brueske, Caroline Kramer, Aaron Fisher

Energy bandwidth studies of U.S. manufacturing sectors can serve as foundational references in framing the range (or bandwidth) of potential energy savings opportunities. This bandwidth study examines energy consumption and potential energy savings opportunities in U.S. chemical manufacturing. The study relies on multiple sources to estimate the energy used in the production of 74 individual chemicals, representing 57% of sector-wide energy consumption. Energy savings opportunities for individual chemicals and for 15 subsectors of chemicals manufacturing are based on technologies currently in use or under development; these potential savings are then extrapolated to estimate sector-wide energy savings opportunity.

The cost of lost productivity due to fetal alcohol spectrum disorder-related premature mortality.

PubMed

Easton, Brian; Burd, Larry; Sarnocinska-Hart, Anna; Rehm, Jürgem; Popova, Svetlana

2015-01-01

Individuals with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) have increased mortality as compared to the general population. To estimate the productivity losses due to premature mortality of individuals with FASD in Canada in 2011. A demographic approach with a counterfactual scenario in which nobody in Canada is born with FASD was used. Population estimates were calculated using data on the labour force, unemployment rate, and average weekly wage obtained from Statistics Canada. The number of FASD-related deaths, coded in the International Classification of Diseases, version 10, was estimated based on data from Statistics Canada and pooled prevalence estimates of the major disease conditions associated with FASD were obtained from a meta-analysis. The estimates of FASD-related mortality rates served as a basis for the length of working life span estimation. Once the number of working years lost to premature deaths was derived, productivity losses were computed. It was estimated that in total 327 individuals with FASD aged 20 to 69 (almost twice as many men as women) died in Canada in 2011. As a result, there were 2,877 years of potential employment lost, which translated to a loss ranging from $88 million to $126 million. This amount represents the increase in national income, had there been no premature mortality from FASD and the workers with FASD had been typical members of the labour force (without compromised productivity due to FASD). The estimates of productivity losses further reinforce the value of FASD prevention as a primary strategy.

Theoretical Calculations on the Feasibility of Microalgal Biofuels: Utilization of Marine Resources Could Help Realizing the Potential of Microalgae

PubMed Central

Park, Hanwool

2016-01-01

Abstract Microalgae have long been considered as one of most promising feedstocks with better characteristics for biofuels production over conventional energy crops. There have been a wide range of estimations on the feasibility of microalgal biofuels based on various productivity assumptions and data from different scales. The theoretical maximum algal biofuel productivity, however, can be calculated by the amount of solar irradiance and photosynthetic efficiency (PE), assuming other conditions are within the optimal range. Using the actual surface solar irradiance data around the world and PE of algal culture systems, maximum algal biomass and biofuel productivities were calculated, and feasibility of algal biofuel were assessed with the estimation. The results revealed that biofuel production would not easily meet the economic break‐even point and may not be sustainable at a large‐scale with the current algal biotechnology. Substantial reductions in the production cost, improvements in lipid productivity, recycling of resources, and utilization of non‐conventional resources will be necessary for feasible mass production of algal biofuel. Among the emerging technologies, cultivation of microalgae in the ocean shows great potentials to meet the resource requirements and economic feasibility in algal biofuel production by utilizing various marine resources. PMID:27782372

Theoretical Calculations on the Feasibility of Microalgal Biofuels: Utilization of Marine Resources Could Help Realizing the Potential of Microalgae.

PubMed

Park, Hanwool; Lee, Choul-Gyun

2016-11-01

Microalgae have long been considered as one of most promising feedstocks with better characteristics for biofuels production over conventional energy crops. There have been a wide range of estimations on the feasibility of microalgal biofuels based on various productivity assumptions and data from different scales. The theoretical maximum algal biofuel productivity, however, can be calculated by the amount of solar irradiance and photosynthetic efficiency (PE), assuming other conditions are within the optimal range. Using the actual surface solar irradiance data around the world and PE of algal culture systems, maximum algal biomass and biofuel productivities were calculated, and feasibility of algal biofuel were assessed with the estimation. The results revealed that biofuel production would not easily meet the economic break-even point and may not be sustainable at a large-scale with the current algal biotechnology. Substantial reductions in the production cost, improvements in lipid productivity, recycling of resources, and utilization of non-conventional resources will be necessary for feasible mass production of algal biofuel. Among the emerging technologies, cultivation of microalgae in the ocean shows great potentials to meet the resource requirements and economic feasibility in algal biofuel production by utilizing various marine resources. © 2016 The Authors. Biotechnology Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Assessing quantities and disposal routes for household hazardous products in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Slack, Rebecca J; Zerva, Panagoula; Gronow, Jan R; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2005-03-15

The disposal of household products containing hazardous substances (household hazardous wastes; HHW) is of concern due to possible health and environmental effects as a consequence of environmental pollution. The potential risks of disposal are proportional to the amounts of products used and waste generated, but much of the data relating to quantities are old, inconsistent, or nonexistent. Hence, full-scale risk assessment is not yet feasible. This pilot study was aimed at an initial assessment of the amounts of hazardous products used or stored within the household and potential disposal routes. Representatives of 400 households from southeast England were interviewed about socio-demographic factors, perception of the risks associated with the use and disposal of hazardous waste generated in households, quantities of particular products currently in use or stored within the household, and times and methods of disposal of such products. The estimates of quantities obtained were compared with sales figures and waste estimates to improve understanding of product flow through to the HHW stream. The disposal routes investigated demonstrated that most householders claim to use the entire product priorto disposal in the general refuse bin. The relationship with socio-demographic factors demonstrated a difference between neighborhood size and length of residence in a household with regard to product quantities possessed and the disposal habits adopted.

Estimating Animal Abundance in Ground Beef Batches Assayed with Molecular Markers

PubMed Central

Hu, Xin-Sheng; Simila, Janika; Platz, Sindey Schueler; Moore, Stephen S.; Plastow, Graham; Meghen, Ciaran N.

2012-01-01

Estimating animal abundance in industrial scale batches of ground meat is important for mapping meat products through the manufacturing process and for effectively tracing the finished product during a food safety recall. The processing of ground beef involves a potentially large number of animals from diverse sources in a single product batch, which produces a high heterogeneity in capture probability. In order to estimate animal abundance through DNA profiling of ground beef constituents, two parameter-based statistical models were developed for incidence data. Simulations were applied to evaluate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a joint likelihood function from multiple surveys, showing superiority in the presence of high capture heterogeneity with small sample sizes, or comparable estimation in the presence of low capture heterogeneity with a large sample size when compared to other existing models. Our model employs the full information on the pattern of the capture-recapture frequencies from multiple samples. We applied the proposed models to estimate animal abundance in six manufacturing beef batches, genotyped using 30 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, from a large scale beef grinding facility. Results show that between 411∼1367 animals were present in six manufacturing beef batches. These estimates are informative as a reference for improving recall processes and tracing finished meat products back to source. PMID:22479559

[Estimate of the formation potential of secondary organic aerosol in Beijing summertime].

PubMed

Lü, Zi-Feng; Hao, Ji-Ming; Duan, Jing-Chun; Li, Jun-Hua

2009-04-15

Fractional aerosol coefficients (FAC) are used in conjunction with measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOC) during ozone episodes to estimate the formation potential of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the summertime of Beijing. The estimation is based on the actual atmospheric conditions of Beijing, and benzene and isoprene are considered as the precursors of SOA. The results show that 31 out of 70 measured VOC species are SOA precursors, and the total potential SOA formation is predicted to be 8.48 microg/m3, which accounts for 30% of fine organic particle matter. Toluene, xylene, pinene, ethylbenzene and n-undecane are the 5 largest contributors to SOA production and account for 20%, 22%, 14%, 9% and 4% of total SOA production, respectively. The anthropogenic aromatic compounds, which yield 76% of the calculated SOA, are the major source of SOA. The biogenic alkenes, alkanes and carbonyls produce 16%, 7% and 1% of SOA formation, respectively. The major components of produced SOA are expected to be aromatic compounds, aliphatic acids, carbonyls and aliphatic nitrates, which contribute to 72%, 14%, 11% and 3% of SOA mass, respectively. The SOA precursors have relatively low atmospheric concentrations and low ozone formation potential. Hence, SOA formation potential of VOC species, in addition to their atmospheric concentrations and ozone formation potential, should be considered in policy making process of VOCs control.

Geothermal resources and reserves in Indonesia: an updated revision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzi, A.

2015-02-01

More than 300 high- to low-enthalpy geothermal sources have been identified throughout Indonesia. From the early 1980s until the late 1990s, the geothermal potential for power production in Indonesia was estimated to be about 20 000 MWe. The most recent estimate exceeds 29 000 MWe derived from the 300 sites (Geological Agency, December 2013). This resource estimate has been obtained by adding all of the estimated geothermal potential resources and reserves classified as "speculative", "hypothetical", "possible", "probable", and "proven" from all sites where such information is available. However, this approach to estimating the geothermal potential is flawed because it includes double counting of some reserve estimates as resource estimates, thus giving an inflated figure for the total national geothermal potential. This paper describes an updated revision of the geothermal resource estimate in Indonesia using a more realistic methodology. The methodology proposes that the preliminary "Speculative Resource" category should cover the full potential of a geothermal area and form the base reference figure for the resource of the area. Further investigation of this resource may improve the level of confidence of the category of reserves but will not necessarily increase the figure of the "preliminary resource estimate" as a whole, unless the result of the investigation is higher. A previous paper (Fauzi, 2013a, b) redefined and revised the geothermal resource estimate for Indonesia. The methodology, adopted from Fauzi (2013a, b), will be fully described in this paper. As a result of using the revised methodology, the potential geothermal resources and reserves for Indonesia are estimated to be about 24 000 MWe, some 5000 MWe less than the 2013 national estimate.

Estimating demand for alternatives to cigarettes with online purchase tasks.

PubMed

O'Connor, Richard J; June, Kristie M; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Rousu, Matthew C; Thrasher, James F; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K Michael

2014-01-01

To explore how advertising affects demand for cigarettes and potential substitutes, including snus, dissolvable tobacco, and medicinal nicotine. A Web-based experiment randomized 1062 smokers to see advertisements for alternative nicotine products or soft drinks, then complete a series of purchase tasks, which were used to estimate demand elasticity, peak consumption, and cross-price elasticity (CPE) for tobacco products. Lower demand elasticity and greater peak consumption were seen for cigarettes compared to all alternative products (p < .05). CPE did not differ across the alternative products (p ≤ .03). Seeing relevant advertisements was not significantly related to demand. These findings suggest significantly lower demand for alternative nicotine sources among smokers than previously revealed.

Shelf Life of Food Products: From Open Labeling to Real-Time Measurements.

PubMed

Corradini, Maria G

2018-03-25

The labels currently used on food and beverage products only provide consumers with a rough guide to their expected shelf lives because they assume that a product only experiences a limited range of predefined handling and storage conditions. These static labels do not take into consideration conditions that might shorten a product's shelf life (such as temperature abuse), which can lead to problems associated with food safety and waste. Advances in shelf-life estimation have the potential to improve the safety, reliability, and sustainability of the food supply. Selection of appropriate kinetic models and data-analysis techniques is essential to predict shelf life, to account for variability in environmental conditions, and to allow real-time monitoring. Novel analytical tools to determine safety and quality attributes in situ coupled with modern tracking technologies and appropriate predictive tools have the potential to provide accurate estimations of the remaining shelf life of a food product in real time. This review summarizes the necessary steps to attain a transition from open labeling to real-time shelf-life measurements.

Atmospheric hydrocarbon emissions and concentrations in the barnett shale natural gas production region.

PubMed

Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Sullivan, David W; Allen, David T

2014-05-06

Hourly ambient hydrocarbon concentration data were collected, in the Barnett Shale Natural Gas Production Region, using automated gas chromatography (auto-GC), for the period from April 2010 to December 2011. Data for three sites were compared: a site in the geographical center of the natural gas production region (Eagle Mountain Lake (EML)); a rural/suburban site at the periphery of the production region (Flower Mound Shiloh), and an urban site (Hinton). The dominant hydrocarbon species observed in the Barnett Shale region were light alkanes. Analyses of daily, monthly, and hourly patterns showed little variation in relative composition. Observed concentrations were compared to concentrations predicted using a dispersion model (AERMOD) and a spatially resolved inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions from natural gas production (Barnett Shale Special Emissions Inventory) prepared by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), and other emissions information. The predicted concentrations of VOC due to natural gas production were 0-40% lower than background corrected measurements, after accounting for potential under-estimation of certain emission categories. Hourly and daily variations in observed, background corrected concentrations were primarily explained by variability in meteorology, suggesting that episodic emission events had little impact on hourly averaged concentrations. Total emissions for VOC from natural gas production sources are estimated to be approximately 25,300 tons/yr, when accounting for potential under-estimation of certain emission categories. This region produced, in 2011, approximately 5 bcf/d of natural gas (100 Gg/d) for a VOC to natural gas production ratio (mass basis) of 0.0006.

Cyclic voltammetry to evaluate the antioxidant potential in winemaking by-products.

PubMed

José Jara-Palacios, M; Luisa Escudero-Gilete, M; Miguel Hernández-Hierro, J; Heredia, Francisco J; Hernanz, Dolores

2017-04-01

Grape pomace is composed of seeds, skins and stems that are an important source of phenolic substances, which have antioxidant properties and potential benefits to human health. Cyclic voltammetry (CV) has been used to measure the total antioxidant potential of different winemaking by-products. The electrochemical behavior of pomace, seeds, skins and stems was measured by CV and lipid peroxidation inhibition by thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) method. Differences for the electrochemical parameter were found between the by-products, pomace and seeds, which presented the greatest voltammetric peak area. Furthermore, the by-products induced inhibition of lipid peroxidation in rat liver homogenates. Pomace and seeds showed higher capacity to inhibit lipid peroxidation than stems and skins, which could be because these by-products are richer in flavanols. Simple regression analyses showed that voltammetric parameters are highly correlated to the values obtained for lipid peroxidation inhibition. CV is a promising technique to estimate the total antioxidant potential of phenolic extract from winemaking by-products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Libya, Algeria and Egypt: crude oil potential from known deposits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dietzman, W.D.; Rafidi, N.R.; Ross, T.A.

1982-04-01

An analysis is presented of the discovered crude oil resources, reserves, and estimated annual production from known fields of the Republics of Libya, Algeria, and Egypt. Proved reserves are defined as the remaining producible oil as of a specified date under operating practice in effect at that time and include estimated recoverable oil in undrilled portions of a given structure or structures. Also included in the proved reserve category are the estimated indicated additional volumes of recoverable oil from the entire oil reservoir where fluid injection programs have been started in a portion, or portions, of the reservoir. The indicatedmore » additional reserves (probable reserves) reported herein are the volumes of crude oil that might be obtained with the installation of secondary recovery or pressure maintenance operations in reservoirs where none have been previously installed. The sum of cumulative production, proved reserves, and probable reserves is defined as the ultimate oil recovery from known deposits; and resources are defined as the original oil in place (OOIP). An assessment was made of the availability of crude oil under three assumed sustained production rates for each country; an assessment was also made of each country's capability of sustaining production at, or near, the 1980 rates assuming different limiting reserve to production ratios. Also included is an estimate of the potential maximum producing capability from known deposits that might be obtained from known accumulations under certain assumptions, using a simple time series approach. The theoretical maximum oil production capability from known fields at any time is the maximum deliverability rate assuming there are no equipment, investment, market, or political constraints.« less

Horizontal spacing, depletion, and infill potential in the Austin Chalk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyte, D.G.; Meehan, D.N.

1996-12-31

There have been more than 4500 laterals drilled in the Austin Chalk. This paper looks at estimated ultimate recoveries (EUR) on a barrels/acre basis for these Austin Chalk wells. Baffels/acre recoveries were computed by estimating ultimate per-well recoveries, drilled density and the impact of vertical production. The data were then analyzed for depletion and infill potential. Certain areas were selected for further study using an artificial neural network. The network was built and used to study the effects of parameters such as lateral length, first production date, structure of the Austin Chalk, etc. on these recoverable barrel/acre numbers. The methodologymore » and regional results of the study are reviewed with detailed analyses shown in selected areas.« less

Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

1997-01-01

The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

Potential mercury emissions from fluorescent lamps production and obsolescence in mainland China.

PubMed

Tan, Quanyin; Li, Jinhui

2016-01-01

The use of fluorescent lamps has expanded rapidly all over the world in recent years, because of their energy-saving capability. Consequently, however, mercury emissions from production, breakage, and discard of the lamps are drawing increasing concern from the public. This article focuses on evaluating the amount of mercury used for fluorescent lamp production, as well as the potential mercury emissions during production and breakage, in mainland China. It is expected to provide a comprehensive understanding about the risks present in the mercury from fluorescent lamps, and to know about the impacts of the policies on fluorescent lamps after their implementation. It is estimated that, in 2020, mercury consumption will be about 11.30-15.69 tonnes, a significant reduction of 34.9%-37.4% from that used in 2013, owing to improvement in mercury dosing dosage technology and tighter limitations on mercury content in fluorescent lamps. With these improvements, the amount of mercury remaining in fluorescent lamps and released during production is estimated to be 10.71-14.86 and 0.59-0.83 tonnes, respectively; the mercury released from waste fluorescent lamps is estimated to be about 5.37-7.59 tonnes. Also, a significant reduction to the mercury emission can be expected when a collection and treatment system is well established and conducted in the future. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Nature and Use of Copper Reserve and Resource Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, Dennis P.; Wright, Nancy A.; Coakley, George J.

1981-01-01

Copper reserve, resource, and production data can be combined to produce disaggregated resource estimates and trends and, when combined with demand forecasts, can be used to predict future exploration and development requirements. Reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties due mainly to incomplete exploration and rapidly changing economic conditions. United States' reserve estimates in the past have been low mainly because knowledge of the magnitude of very large porphyry-copper deposits has been incomplete. Present estimates are considerably more reliable because mining firms tend to drill out deposits fully before mining and to release their reserve estimates to the public. The sum of reserves and past production yields an estimate of the total ore, total metal contained in ore, and average grade of ore originally in each of the deposits known in the United States. For most deposits, estimates of total copper in ore are low relative to the total copper in mineralized rock, and many estimates are strongly affected by the economic behavior of mining firms. A better estimate of the real distribution of copper contained in deposits can be obtained by combining past production data with resource estimates. Copper resource data are disaggregated into categories that include resources in undeveloped deposits similar to those mined in the past, resources in mines closed because of unfavorable economic conditions, resources in deep deposits requiring high-cost mining methods, arid resources in deposits located in areas where environmental restrictions have contributed to delays in development. The largest resource is located in the five largest porphyry deposits. These deposits are now being mined but the resources are not included in the present mining plan. Resources in this last category will not contribute to supply until some future time when ores presently being mined are depleted. A high correlation exists between total copper contained in deposits and annual production from deposits. This correlation can be used to predict roughly the potential production from undeveloped deposits. Large deposits annually produce relatively less metal per ton of copper contained than do medium and small deposits. Dividing reserves by annual production gives a depletion date for each copper mine. The sum of annual production capacity of all mines not yet depleted at any year of interest gives the minimum production capacity for that year. A graph of minimum production capacity by year combined with curves representing potential capacity from undeveloped identified resources can be compared with various demand scenarios to yield a measure of copper requirements from new sources. Since 1950 reserves have been developed in the United States at a rate of about 1 million tons of copper per year. Since 1960 the number of deposits developed per 10-year period has greatly increased without a commensurate increase in tonnage of copper. This is in part due to the fact that recent exploration successes have been increasingly represented by smaller and (or) lower grade deposits containing less metal.

Sample EP Flow Analysis of Severely Damaged Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werley, Kenneth Alan; McCown, Andrew William

These are slides for a presentation at the working group meeting of the WESC SREMP Software Product Integration Team on sample EP flow analysis of severely damaged networks. The following topics are covered: ERCOT EP Transmission Model; Zoomed in to Houston and Overlaying StreetAtlas; EMPACT Solve/Dispatch/Shedding Options; QACS BaseCase Power Flow Solution; 3 Substation Contingency; Gen. & Load/100 Optimal Dispatch; Dispatch Results; Shed Load for Low V; Network Damage Summary; Estimated Service Areas (Potential); Estimated Outage Areas (potential).

Potential Improvements to Remote Primary Productivity Estimation in the Southern California Current System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Kahru, M.; Rudnick, D. L.; Kudela, R. M.

2012-12-01

A 26-year record of depth integrated primary productivity (PP) in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) is analyzed with the goal of improving satellite net primary productivity (PP) estimates. The ratio of integrated primary productivity to surface chlorophyll correlates strongly to surface chlorophyll concentration (chl0). However, chl0 does not correlate to chlorophyll-specific productivity, and appears to be a proxy for vertical phytoplankton distribution rather than phytoplankton physiology. Modest improvements in PP model performance are achieved by tuning existing algorithms for the SCCS, particularly by empirical parameterization of photosynthetic efficiency in the Vertically Generalized Production Model. Much larger improvements are enabled by improving accuracy of subsurface chlorophyll and light profiles. In a simple vertically resolved production model, substitution of in situ surface data for remote sensing estimates offers only marginal improvements in model r2 and total log10 root mean squared difference, while inclusion of in situ chlorophyll and light profiles improves these metrics significantly. Autonomous underwater gliders, capable of measuring subsurface fluorescence on long-term, long-range deployments, significantly improve PP model fidelity in the SCCS. We suggest their use (and that of other autonomous profilers such as Argo floats) in conjunction with satellites as a way forward for improved PP estimation in coastal upwelling systems.

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

Biogas and Hydrogen Systems Market Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milbrandt, Anelia; Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

2016-03-31

This analysis provides an overview of the market for biogas-derived hydrogen and its use in transportation applications. It examines the current hydrogen production technologies from biogas, capacity and production, infrastructure, potential and demand, as well as key market areas. It also estimates the production cost of hydrogen from biogas and provides supply curves at a national level and at point source.

Reducing CO2 Emissions through Lightweight Design and Manufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carruth, Mark A.; Allwood, Julian M.; Milford, Rachel L.

2011-05-01

To meet targeted 50% reductions in industrial CO2 emissions by 2050, demand for steel and aluminium must be cut. Many steel and aluminium products include redundant material, and the manufacturing routes to produce them use more material than is necessary. Lightweight design and optimized manufacturing processes offer a means of demand reduction, whilst creating products to perform the same service as existing ones. This paper examines two strategies for demand reduction: lightweight product design; and minimizing yield losses through the product supply chain. Possible mass savings are estimated for specific case-studies on metal-intensive products, such as I-beams and food cans. These estimates are then extrapolated to other sectors to produce a global estimate for possible demand reductions. Results show that lightweight product design may offer potential mass savings of up to 30% for some products, whilst yield in the production of others could be improved by over 20%. If these two strategies could be combined for all products, global demand for steel and aluminium would be reduced by nearly 50%. The impact of demand reduction on CO2 emissions is presented, and barriers to the adoption of new, lightweight technologies are discussed.

Wood fuel potential from harvested areas in the eastern United States.

Treesearch

Eugene M. Carpenter

1980-01-01

Estimates amount of wood fiber that could be available for fuel from forest residues on harvested areas in the eastern United States. Includes a key to resource data published by the USDA Forest Service and factors for estimating amounts of cull, bark, tops, and limbs from inventory and product output tabulations.

D-PSA-K: A Model for Estimating the Accumulated Potential Damage on Kiwifruit Canes Caused by Bacterial Canker during the Growing and Overwintering Seasons.

PubMed

Do, Ki Seok; Chung, Bong Nam; Joa, Jae Ho

2016-12-01

We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

Does export product quality matter for CO2 emissions? Evidence from China.

PubMed

Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis

2017-01-01

This paper re-estimates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in China. To this end, it uses the unit root tests with structural breaks and the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) estimations over the period 1971-2010. The special role is given to the impact of export product quality on CO 2 emissions in the empirical models. The paper finds that the EKC hypothesis is applicable in China. It also observes the positive effect from energy consumption to CO 2 emissions. In addition, it finds that the export product quality is negatively associated with CO 2 emissions. The paper also argues potential implications.

Business Case Analysis of the Towed Gilder Air Launched System (TGALS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Darryl W.; Nguyen, McLinton B.; Seibold, Robert W.; Wong, Frank C.; Budd, Gerald D.

2017-01-01

The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share.

From Policy to Compliance: Federal Energy Efficient Product Procurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeMates, Laurèn; Scodel, Anna

Federal buyers are required to purchase energy-efficient products in an effort to minimize energy use in the federal sector, save the federal government money, and spur market development of efficient products. The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP)’s Energy Efficient Product Procurement (EEPP) Program helps federal agencies comply with the requirement to purchase energy-efficient products by providing technical assistance and guidance and setting efficiency requirements for certain product categories. Past studies have estimated the savings potential of purchasing energy-efficient products at over $500 million per year in energy costs across federal agencies.1 Despite the strong policy support for EEPP and resourcesmore » available, energy-efficient product purchasing operates within complex decision-making processes and operational structures; implementation challenges exist that may hinder agencies’ ability to comply with purchasing requirements. The shift to purchasing green products, including energy-efficient products, relies on “buy in” from a variety of potential actors throughout different purchasing pathways. Challenges may be especially high for EEPP relative to other sustainable acquisition programs given that efficient products frequently have a higher first cost than non-efficient ones, which may be perceived as a conflict with fiscal responsibility, or more simply problematic for agency personnel trying to stretch limited budgets. Federal buyers may also face challenges in determining whether a given product is subject to EEPP requirements. Previous analysis on agency compliance with EEPP, conducted by the Alliance to Save Energy (ASE), shows that federal agencies are getting better at purchasing energy-efficient products. ASE conducted two reviews of relevant solicitations for product and service contracts listed on Federal Business Opportunities (FBO), the centralized website where federal agencies are required to post procurements greater than $25,000. In 2010, ASE estimated a compliance rate of 46% in 2010, up from an estimate of 12% in 2008. Our work updates and expands on ASE’s 2010 analysis to gauge agency compliance with EEPP requirements.« less

The greenhouse gas intensity and potential biofuel production capacity of maize stover harvest in the US Midwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Curtis D.; Zhang, Xuesong; Reddy, Ashwan D.

Agricultural residues are important sources of feedstock for a cellulosic biofuels industry that is being developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy independence. While the US Midwest has been recognized as key to providing maize stover for meeting near-term cellulosic biofuel production goals, there is uncertainty that such feedstocks can produce biofuels that meet federal cellulosic standards. Here, we conducted extensive site-level calibration of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) terrestrial ecosystems model and applied the model at high spatial resolution across the US Midwest to improve estimates of the maximum production potential and greenhouse gas emissions expectedmore » from continuous maize residue-derived biofuels. A comparison of methodologies for calculating the soil carbon impacts of residue harvesting demonstrates the large impact of study duration, depth of soil considered, and inclusion of litter carbon in soil carbon change calculations on the estimated greenhouse gas intensity of maize stover-derived biofuels. Using the most representative methodology for assessing long-term residue harvesting impacts, we estimate that only 5.3 billion liters per year (bly) of ethanol, or 8.7% of the near-term US cellulosic biofuel demand, could be met under common no-till farming practices. However, appreciably more feedstock becomes available at modestly higher emissions levels, with potential for 89.0 bly of ethanol production meeting US advanced biofuel standards. Adjustments to management practices, such as adding cover crops to no-till management, will be required to produce sufficient quantities of residue meeting the greenhouse gas emission reduction standard for cellulosic biofuels. Considering the rapid increase in residue availability with modest relaxations in GHG reduction level, it is expected that management practices with modest benefits to soil carbon would allow considerable expansion of potential cellulosic biofuel production.« less

Review of health and productivity gains from better IEQ

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisk, William J.

2000-08-01

The available scientific data suggest that existing technologies and procedures can improve indoor environmental quality (IEQ) in a manner that significantly increases productivity and health. While there is considerable uncertainty in the estimates of the magnitudes of productivity gains that may be obtained, the projected gains are very large. For the U.S., the estimated potential annual savings and productivity gains are $6 to $14 billion from reduced respiratory disease, $2 to $4 billion from reduced allergies and asthma, $10 to $30 billion from reduced sick building syndrome symptoms, and $20 to $160 billion from direct improvements in worker performance thatmore » are unrelated to health. Productivity gains that are quantified and demonstrated could serve as a strong stimulus for energy efficiency measures that simultaneously improve the indoor environment.« less

Estimating the Enduring Effects of Fertiliser Subsidies on Commercial Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: Panel Data Evidence from Malawi.

PubMed

Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob; Jayne, T S

2017-02-01

Most studies of input subsidy programmes confine their analyses to measuring programme effects over a one-year period. This article estimates the potential longer-run or enduring effects of fertiliser subsidy programmes on smallholder farm households' demand for commercial fertiliser and maize production over time. We use four waves of panel data on 462 farm households in Malawi for whom fertiliser use can be tracked for eight consecutive seasons between 2003/2004 and 2010/2011. Panel estimation methods are used to control for potential endogeneity of subsidised fertiliser acquisition. Results indicate that farmers acquiring subsidised fertiliser in three consecutive prior years are found to purchase slightly more commercial fertiliser in the next year. This suggests a small amount of crowding in of commercial fertiliser from the receipt of subsidised fertiliser in prior years. In addition, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in a given year has a modest positive impact on increasing maize output in that same year. However, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in multiple prior years generates no statistically significant effect on maize output in the current year. These findings indicate that potential enduring effects of the Malawi fertiliser subsidy programme on maize production are limited. Additional interventions that increase soil fertility can make using inorganic fertiliser more profitable and sustainable for smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa and thereby increase the cost-effectiveness of input subsidy programmes.

Product carbon footprints and their uncertainties in comparative decision contexts.

PubMed

Henriksson, Patrik J G; Heijungs, Reinout; Dao, Hai M; Phan, Lam T; de Snoo, Geert R; Guinée, Jeroen B

2015-01-01

In response to growing awareness of climate change, requests to establish product carbon footprints have been increasing. Product carbon footprints are life cycle assessments restricted to just one impact category, global warming. Product carbon footprint studies generate life cycle inventory results, listing the environmental emissions of greenhouse gases from a product's lifecycle, and characterize these by their global warming potentials, producing product carbon footprints that are commonly communicated as point values. In the present research we show that the uncertainties surrounding these point values necessitate more sophisticated ways of communicating product carbon footprints, using different sizes of catfish (Pangasius spp.) farms in Vietnam as a case study. As most product carbon footprint studies only have a comparative meaning, we used dependent sampling to produce relative results in order to increase the power for identifying environmentally superior products. We therefore argue that product carbon footprints, supported by quantitative uncertainty estimates, should be used to test hypotheses, rather than to provide point value estimates or plain confidence intervals of products' environmental performance.

Quantifying rates of glucose production in vivo following an intraperitoneal tracer bolus.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng-Ping; Zhou, Dan; Yao, Zuliang; Satapati, Santhosh; Chen, Ying; Daurio, Natalie A; Petrov, Aleksandr; Shen, Xiaolan; Metzger, Daniel; Yin, Wu; Nawrocki, Andrea R; Eiermann, George J; Hwa, Joyce; Fancourt, Craig; Miller, Corin; Herath, Kithsiri; Roddy, Thomas P; Slipetz, Deborah; Erion, Mark D; Previs, Stephen F; Kelley, David E

2016-12-01

Aberrant regulation of glucose production makes a critical contribution to the impaired glycemic control that is observed in type 2 diabetes. Although isotopic tracer methods have proven to be informative in quantifying the magnitude of such alterations, it is presumed that one must rely on venous access to administer glucose tracers which therein presents obstacles for the routine application of tracer methods in rodent models. Since intraperitoneal injections are readily used to deliver glucose challenges and/or dose potential therapeutics, we hypothesized that this route could also be used to administer a glucose tracer. The ability to then reliably estimate glucose flux would require attention toward setting a schedule for collecting samples and choosing a distribution volume. For example, glucose production can be calculated by multiplying the fractional turnover rate by the pool size. We have taken a step-wise approach to examine the potential of using an intraperitoneal tracer administration in rat and mouse models. First, we compared the kinetics of [U- 13 C]glucose following either an intravenous or an intraperitoneal injection. Second, we tested whether the intraperitoneal method could detect a pharmacological manipulation of glucose production. Finally, we contrasted a potential application of the intraperitoneal method against the glucose-insulin clamp. We conclude that it is possible to 1) quantify glucose production using an intraperitoneal injection of tracer and 2) derive a "glucose production index" by coupling estimates of basal glucose production with measurements of fasting insulin concentration; this yields a proxy for clamp-derived assessments of insulin sensitivity of endogenous production. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Estimating Demand for Alternatives to Cigarettes With Online Purchase Tasks

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Richard J.; June, Kristie M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Rousu, Matthew C.; Thrasher, James F.; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

2013-01-01

Objectives This study explored how advertising affects demand for cigarettes and potential substitutes, including snus, dissolvable tobacco, and medicinal nicotine. Methods A web-based experiment randomized 1062 smokers to see advertisements for alternative nicotine products or soft drinks, then complete a series of purchase tasks, which were used to estimate demand elasticity, peak consumption, and cross-price elasticity (CPE) for tobacco products. Results Lower demand elasticity and greater peak consumption were seen for cigarettes compared to all alternative products (p < .05). CPE did not differ across the alternative products (p ≤ .03). Seeing relevant advertisements was not significantly related to demand. Conclusions These findings suggest significantly lower demand for alternative nicotine sources among smokers than previously revealed. PMID:24034685

Chemical and radiological risk factors associated with waste from energy production.

PubMed

Christensen, T; Fuglestvedt, J; Benestad, C; Ehdwall, H; Hansen, H; Mustonen, R; Stranden, E

1992-04-01

We have tried to estimate the toxic potential of waste from nuclear power plants and from power plants burning fossil fuels. The potential risks have been expressed as 'risk potentials' or 'person equivalents.' These are purely theoretical units and represent only an attempt to quantify the potential impact of different sources and substances on human health. Existing concentration limits for effects on human health are used. The philosophy behind establishing limits for several carcinogenic chemicals is based on a linear dose-effect curve. That is, no lower concentration of no effect exists and one has to accept a certain small risk by accepting the concentration limit. This is in line with the establishment of limits for radiation. Waste products from coal combustion have the highest potential risk among the fossil fuel alternatives. The highest risk is caused by metals, and the fly ash represents the effluent stream giving the largest contribution to the potential risk. The waste from nuclear power production has a lower potential risk than coal if today's limit values re used. If one adjusts the limits for radiation dose and the concentration limit values so that a similar risk is accepted by the limits, nuclear waste seems to have a much higher potential risk than waste from fossil fuel. The possibility that such risk estimates may be used as arguments for safe storage of the different types of waste is discussed. In order to obtain the actual risk from the potential risk, the dispersion of the waste in the environment and its uptake and effects in man have to be taken into account.

Estimating maize production in Kenya using NDVI: Some statistical considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, J.E.; Rowland, James; Nadeau , A.

1998-01-01

A regression model approach using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the potential for estimating crop production in East Africa. However, before production estimation can become a reality, the underlying model assumptions and statistical nature of the sample data (NDVI and crop production) must be examined rigorously. Annual maize production statistics from 1982-90 for 36 agricultural districts within Kenya were used as the dependent variable; median area NDVI (independent variable) values from each agricultural district and year were extracted from the annual maximum NDVI data set. The input data and the statistical association of NDVI with maize production for Kenya were tested systematically for the following items: (1) homogeneity of the data when pooling the sample, (2) gross data errors and influence points, (3) serial (time) correlation, (4) spatial autocorrelation and (5) stability of the regression coefficients. The results of using a simple regression model with NDVI as the only independent variable are encouraging (r 0.75, p 0.05) and illustrate that NDVI can be a responsive indicator of maize production, especially in areas of high NDVI spatial variability, which coincide with areas of production variability in Kenya.

An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Ji; Zhang, Aiping; Lam, Shu Kee

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003-2007, is around 15519PJ in China, consisting of 10818PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12693PJ ofmore » the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347PJ), east China (2862PJ) and south-west China (2229PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380PJ by 2050 and 4108PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002PJ (2050) and 11524PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11150PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon-constrained world.« less

Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

Methanol production from Eucalyptus wood chips. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fishkind, H.H.

This feasibility study includes all phases of methanol production from seedling to delivery of finished methanol. The study examines: production of 55 million, high quality, Eucalyptus seedlings through tissue culture; establishment of a Eucalyptus energy plantation on approximately 70,000 acres; engineering for a 100 million gallon-per-day methanol production facility; potential environmental impacts of the whole project; safety and health aspects of producing and using methanol; and development of site specific cost estimates.

Economic costs of protistan and metazoan parasites to global mariculture.

PubMed

Shinn, A P; Pratoomyot, J; Bron, J E; Paladini, G; Brooker, E E; Brooker, A J

2015-01-01

Parasites have a major impact on global finfish and shellfish aquaculture, having significant effects on farm production, sustainability and economic viability. Parasite infections and impacts can, according to pathogen and context, be considered to be either unpredictable/sporadic or predictable/regular. Although both types of infection may result in the loss of stock and incur costs associated with the control and management of infection, predictable infections can also lead to costs associated with prophylaxis and related activities. The estimation of the economic cost of a parasite event is frequently complicated by the complex interplay of numerous factors associated with a specific incident, which may range from direct production losses to downstream socio-economic impacts on livelihoods and satellite industries associated with the primary producer. In this study, we examine the world's major marine and brackish water aquaculture production industries and provide estimates of the potential economic costs attributable to a range of key parasite pathogens using 498 specific events for the purposes of illustration and estimation of costs. This study provides a baseline resource for risk assessment and the development of more robust biosecurity practices, which can in turn help mitigate against and/or minimise the potential impacts of parasite-mediated disease in aquaculture.

Modeling the production, decomposition, and transport of dissolved organic carbon in boreal soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fan, Zhaosheng; Neff, Jason C.; Wickland, Kimberly P.

2010-01-01

The movement of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) through boreal ecosystems has drawn increased attention because of its potential impact on the feedback of OC stocks to global environmental change in this region. Few models of boreal DOC exist. Here we present a one-dimensional model with simultaneous production, decomposition, sorption/desorption, and transport of DOC to describe the behavior of DOC in the OC layers above the mineral soils. The field-observed concentration profiles of DOC in two moderately well-drained black spruce forest sites (one with permafrost and one without permafrost), coupled with hourly measured soil temperature and moisture, were used to inversely estimate the unknown parameters associated with the sorption/desorption kinetics using a global optimization strategy. The model, along with the estimated parameters, reasonably reproduces the concentration profiles of DOC and highlights some important potential controls over DOC production and cycling in boreal settings. The values of estimated parameters suggest that humic OC has a larger potential production capacity for DOC than fine OC, and most of the DOC produced from fine OC was associated with instantaneous sorption/desorption whereas most of the DOC produced from humic OC was associated with time-dependent sorption/desorption. The simulated DOC efflux at the bottom of soil OC layers was highly dependent on the component and structure of the OC layers. The DOC efflux was controlled by advection at the site with no humic OC and moist conditions and controlled by diffusion at the site with the presence of humic OC and dry conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robichaud, R.

This report focuses on the wind resource assessment, the estimated energy production of wind turbines, and economic potential of a wind turbine project on a ridge in the southeastern portion of the Fort Carson Army base.

Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, Mario; Henderson, Benjamin; Havlík, Petr; Thornton, Philip K.; Conant, Richard T.; Smith, Pete; Wirsenius, Stefan; Hristov, Alexander N.; Gerber, Pierre; Gill, Margaret; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Valin, Hugo; Garnett, Tara; Stehfest, Elke

2016-05-01

The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40-50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6-7.5 GtCO2e yr-1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment.

Constructing a Spatially Resolved Methane Emission Inventory of Natural Gas Production and Distribution over Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Omara, M.; Adams, P. J.; Presto, A. A.

2017-12-01

Methane is the second most powerful greenhouse gas after Carbon Dioxide. The natural gas production and distribution accounts for 23% of the total anthropogenic methane emissions in the United States. The boost of natural gas production in U.S. in recent years poses a potential concern of increased methane emissions from natural gas production and distribution. The Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (Edgar) v4.2 and the EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) are currently the most commonly used methane emission inventories. However, recent studies suggested that both Edgar v4.2 and the EPA GHGI largely underestimated the methane emission from natural gas production and distribution in U.S. constrained by both ground and satellite measurements. In this work, we built a gridded (0.1° Latitude ×0.1° Longitude) methane emission inventory of natural gas production and distribution over the contiguous U.S. using emission factors measured by our mobile lab in the Marcellus Shale, the Denver-Julesburg Basin, and the Uintah Basin, and emission factors reported from other recent field studies for other natural gas production regions. The activity data (well location and count) are mostly obtained from the Drillinginfo, the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results show that the methane emission from natural gas production and distribution estimated by our inventory is about 20% higher than the EPA GHGI, and in some major natural gas production regions, methane emissions estimated by the EPA GHGI are significantly lower than our inventory. For example, in the Marcellus Shale, our estimated annual methane emission in 2015 is 600 Gg higher than the EPA GHGI. We also ran the GEOS-Chem methane simulation to estimate the methane concentration in the atmosphere with our built inventory, the EPA GHGI and the Edgar v4.2 over the nested North American Domain. These simulation results showed differences in some major gas production regions. The simulated methane concentrations will be compared with the GOSAT satellite data to explore whether our built inventory could potentially improve the prediction of regional methane concentrations in the atmosphere.

The potential benefit of improving the dissemination of agricultural weather information to the Mississippi cotton farmer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Priddy, K. T.; Marlatt, W. E. (Principal Investigator)

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The potential benefit of improved dissemination of weather information to the Mississippi cotton farmer was estimated at $36,000 per 1000 acres. This is 16% of production cost of cotton in 1976. On a statewide basis, the total potential savings exceeds 100 million dollars.

[Smoking-attributable productivity loss in Germany--a partial sickness cost study based on the human capital potential method].

PubMed

Wegner, C; Gutsch, A; Hessel, F; Wasem, J

2004-07-01

Costs of productivity loss for the Federal Republic of Germany attributable to smoking in 1999 was to be determined. Mortality and morbidity attributable to smoking is determined by a 0.5 % sample of the smoking behaviour of the German population (microcensus 1999) and the relative mortality risks of smokers (US-American cancer prevention study II). Tobacco smoke-associated cancer illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory tract diseases and illnesses of children under one year are considered. Calculation of the productivity-relevant consequences of smoking due to morbidity and mortality is effected according to the so-called human potential capital method. In Germany total of 607,393 working years were lost because of smoking in the year 1999. The costs of productivity loss are estimated at 14,480 billion euro. From this 4,525 billion euro are allotted to premature mortality, 5.759 billion euro to permanent disablement and 4.196 billion euro to temporary incapacitation for work. If the costs of productivity loss by smoking are referred to the gross national product (BSP) in the year 1999, an economical damage at a value of 0.74 % of BSPs results. This corresponds to a productivity loss of 379 euro per present or former smoker. The sensitivity analysis manifests that the inclusion of "non-marketable production" results in an immense rise productivity losses attributable to smoking. However, it should be noted that in times of mass unemployment the human capital method which is based on full employment does not measure the actual, but only the potential productivity loss cost. This partial disease cost study shows that immense economic productivity losses are associated with smoking. This loss of resources can justify a purposeful promotion of studies regarding cost effectiveness of anti-smoking therapeutic measures or preventive measures against smoking. But it should be considered that the use of the human potential capital method results in an overestimation of the actual productivity losses by smoking. In future the costs of productivity losses attributable to smoking should be determined by the friction cost method. With this procedure a more realistic estimation of productivity-relevant costs of smoking is possible.

Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, William K.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Miller, Norman L.; Running, Steven W.

2012-01-01

Background/Question/Methods Currently, the United States (U.S.) supplies roughly half the world’s biofuel (secondary bioenergy), with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) stipulating an additional three-fold increase in annual production by 2022. Implicit in such energy targets is an associated increase in annual biomass demand (primary bioenergy) from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 exajoules (EJ; 1018 Joules). Yet, many of the factors used to estimate future bioenergy potential are relatively unresolved, bringing into question the practicality of the EISA’s ambitious bioenergy targets. Here, our objective was to constrain estimates of primary bioenergy potential (PBP) for the conterminous U.S. using satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data (measured for every 1 km2 of the 7.2 million km2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S) as the most geographically explicit measure of terrestrial growth capacity. Results/Conclusions We show that the annual primary bioenergy potential (PBP) of the conterminous U.S. realistically ranges from approximately 5.9 (± 1.4) to 22.2 (± 4.4) EJ, depending on land use. The low end of this range represents current harvest residuals, an attractive potential energy source since no additional harvest land is required. In contrast, the high end represents an annual harvest over an additional 5.4 million km2 or 75% of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S. While we identify EISA energy targets as achievable, our results indicate that meeting such targets using current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current croplands or the conversion of 60% of total rangelands. Our results differ from previous evaluations in that we use high resolution, satellite-derived NPP as an upper-envelope constraint on bioenergy potential, which removes the need for extrapolation of plot-level observed yields over large spatial areas. Establishing realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential seems a critical next step for effectively incorporating bioenergy into future U.S. energy portfolios.

Using airborne lidar as a sampling tool for estimating forest biomass resources in the upper Tanana Valley of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Hans-Erik Andersen; Jacob Strunk; Hailemariam Temesgen

2011-01-01

Airborne laser scanning, collected in a sampling mode, has the potential to be a valuable tool for estimating the biomass resources available to support bioenergy production in rural communities of interior Alaska. In this study, we present a methodology for estimating forest biomass over a 201,226-ha area (of which 163,913 ha are forested) in the upper Tanana valley...

Volatile organic compounds in pesticide formulations: Methods to estimate ozone formation potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeinali, Mazyar; McConnell, Laura L.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Nguyen, Anh; Schmidt, Walter F.; Howard, Cody J.

2011-05-01

The environmental fate and toxicity of active ingredients in pesticide formulations has been investigated for many decades, but relatively little research has been conducted on the fate of pesticide co-formulants or inerts. Some co-formulants are volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and can contribute to ground-level ozone pollution. Effective product assessment methods are required to reduce emissions of the most reactive VOCs. Six emulsifiable concentrate pesticide products were characterized for percent VOC by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). TGA estimates exceeded GC-MS by 10-50% in all but one product, indicating that for some products a fraction of active ingredient is released during TGA or that VOC contribution was underestimated by GC-MS. VOC profiles were examined using TGA-Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) evolved gas analysis and were compared to GC-MS results. The TGA-FTIR method worked best for products with the simplest and most volatile formulations, but could be developed into an effective product screening tool. An ozone formation potential ( OFP) for each product was calculated using the chemical composition from GC-MS and published maximum incremental reactivity ( MIR) values. OFP values ranged from 0.1 to 3.1 g ozone g -1 product. A 24-h VOC emission simulation was developed for each product assuming a constant emission rate calculated from an equation relating maximum flux rate to vapor pressure. Results indicate 100% VOC loss for some products within a few hours, while other products containing less volatile components will remain in the field for several days after application. An alternate method to calculate a product OFP was investigated utilizing the fraction of the total mass of each chemical emitted at the end of the 24-h simulation. The ideal assessment approach will include: 1) unambiguous chemical composition information; 2) flexible simulation models to estimate emissions under different management practices; and 3) accurate reactivity predictions.

Developments and potential of radiation processing in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singson, C.; Carmona, C.

This paper describes the research and development activities in three areas of radiation processing, namely: food irradiation, medical product sterilization and wood plastic combination. Plans and efforts exerted to acquire a larger gamma source to augment our present 5,000 curie source are discussed. Cost estimates for a radiation facility is presented on the basis of the market potential of food irradiation and medical product sterilization. Existing local industries that can benefit from the adaptation of irradiation technology in their processing requirements is described.

Using Ensemble-Based Methods for Directly Estimating Causal Effects: An Investigation of Tree-Based G-Computation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Peter C.

2012-01-01

Researchers are increasingly using observational or nonrandomized data to estimate causal treatment effects. Essential to the production of high-quality evidence is the ability to reduce or minimize the confounding that frequently occurs in observational studies. When using the potential outcome framework to define causal treatment effects, one…

Annual losses from disease in Pacific Northwest forests.

Treesearch

T.W Childs; K.R. Shea

1967-01-01

This report presents current estimates of annual disease impact on forest productivity of Oregon and Washington. It is concerned exclusively with losses of timber volumes and of potential timber growth in today's forests.Annual loss from disease in this region is estimated at 3,133 million board feet or 403 million cubic feet. This is about 13 percent...

Estimating added sugars in US consumer packaged goods: An application to beverages in 2007-08.

PubMed

Ng, Shu Wen; Bricker, Gregory; Li, Kuo-Ping; Yoon, Emily Ford; Kang, Jiyoung; Westrich, Brian

2015-11-01

This study developed a method to estimate added sugar content in consumer packaged goods (CPG) that can keep pace with the dynamic food system. A team including registered dietitians, a food scientist and programmers developed a batch-mode ingredient matching and linear programming (LP) approach to estimate the amount of each ingredient needed in a given product to produce a nutrient profile similar to that reported on its nutrition facts label (NFL). Added sugar content was estimated for 7021 products available in 2007-08 that contain sugar from ten beverage categories. Of these, flavored waters had the lowest added sugar amounts (4.3g/100g), while sweetened dairy and dairy alternative beverages had the smallest percentage of added sugars (65.6% of Total Sugars; 33.8% of Calories). Estimation validity was determined by comparing LP estimated values to NFL values, as well as in a small validation study. LP estimates appeared reasonable compared to NFL values for calories, carbohydrates and total sugars, and performed well in the validation test; however, further work is needed to obtain more definitive conclusions on the accuracy of added sugar estimates in CPGs. As nutrition labeling regulations evolve, this approach can be adapted to test for potential product-specific, category-level, and population-level implications.

Estimating added sugars in US consumer packaged goods: An application to beverages in 2007–08

PubMed Central

Ng, Shu Wen; Bricker, Gregory; Li, Kuo-ping; Yoon, Emily Ford; Kang, Jiyoung; Westrich, Brian

2015-01-01

This study developed a method to estimate added sugar content in consumer packaged goods (CPG) that can keep pace with the dynamic food system. A team including registered dietitians, a food scientist and programmers developed a batch-mode ingredient matching and linear programming (LP) approach to estimate the amount of each ingredient needed in a given product to produce a nutrient profile similar to that reported on its nutrition facts label (NFL). Added sugar content was estimated for 7021 products available in 2007–08 that contain sugar from ten beverage categories. Of these, flavored waters had the lowest added sugar amounts (4.3g/100g), while sweetened dairy and dairy alternative beverages had the smallest percentage of added sugars (65.6% of Total Sugars; 33.8% of Calories). Estimation validity was determined by comparing LP estimated values to NFL values, as well as in a small validation study. LP estimates appeared reasonable compared to NFL values for calories, carbohydrates and total sugars, and performed well in the validation test; however, further work is needed to obtain more definitive conclusions on the accuracy of added sugar estimates in CPGs. As nutrition labeling regulations evolve, this approach can be adapted to test for potential product-specific, category-level, and population-level implications. PMID:26273127

Global Potential Net Prmary Production Predicted from Vegetation Class, Precipitation, and Temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Net Primary Production (NPP), the difference between CO2 fixed by photosynthesis and CO2 lost to autotrophic respiration, is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle. Our goal was to develop a simple regression model to estimate global NPP using climate and land cover data. Approxima...

Lesquerella seed yield estimation using color image segmentation to track flowering dynamics under water and nitrogen limitation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Seed oil from lesquerella (Physaria fendleri (Gray) O'Kane & Al-Shehbaz) can potentially supplement castor oil as a non-petroleum-based chemical feedstock in the production of many industrial products. However, before lesquerella will become commercially viable, further efforts are needed to address...

Screening blood samples to estimate when oxytetverycline residues exceed regulatory tolerances in poultry muscle

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The presence of antibiotic residues in edible animal products is a human food safety concern. To address this potential problem, the government samples edible tissues, such as muscle, to monitor for residues. Due to loss of valuable product and analytical difficulties only a small percentage of po...

Estimating erosion in a riverine watershed: Bayou Liberty-Tchefuncta River in Louisiana.

PubMed

Martin, August; Gunter, James T; Regens, James L

2003-01-01

GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Sheet erosion from agricultural, forest and urban lands may increase stream sediment loads as well as transport other pollutants that adversely affect water quality, reduce agricultural and forest production, and increase infrastructure maintenance costs. This study uses spatial analysis techniques and a numerical modeling approach to predict areas with the greatest sheet erosion potential given different soils disturbance scenarios. A Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were used to estimate sheet erosion from 0.64 ha parcels of land within the watershed. The Soil Survey of St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana was digitized, required soil attributes entered into the GIS database, and slope factors determined for each 80 x 80 meter parcel in the watershed. The GIS/USLE model used series-specific erosion K factors, a rainfall factor of 89, and a GIS database of scenario-driven cropping and erosion control practice factors to estimate potential soil loss due to sheet erosion. A general trend of increased potential sheet erosion occurred for all land use categories (urban, agriculture/grasslands, forests) as soil disturbance increases from cropping, logging and construction activities. Modeling indicated that rapidly growing urban areas have the greatest potential for sheet erosion. Evergreen and mixed forests (production forest) had lower sheet erosion potentials; with deciduous forests (mostly riparian) having the least sheet erosion potential. Erosion estimates from construction activities may be overestimated because of the value chosen for the erosion control practice factor. This study illustrates the ease with which GIS can be integrated with the Universal Soil Loss Equation to identify areas with high sheet erosion potential for large scale management and policy decision making. The GIS/USLE modeling approach used in this study offers a quick and inexpensive tool for estimating sheet erosion within watersheds using publicly available information. This method can quickly identify discrete locations with relatively precise spatial boundaries (approximately 80 meter resolution) that have a high sheet erosion potential as well as areas where management interventions might be appropriate to prevent or ameliorate erosion.

Energy conversion performance of black liquor gasification to hydrogen production using direct causticization with CO(2) capture.

PubMed

Naqvi, M; Yan, J; Dahlquist, E

2012-04-01

This paper estimates potential hydrogen production via dry black liquor gasification system with direct causticization integrated with a reference pulp mill. The advantage of using direct causticization is elimination of energy intensive lime kiln. Pressure swing adsorption is integrated in the carbon capture process for hydrogen upgrading. The energy conversion performance of the integrated system is compared with other bio-fuel alternatives and evaluated based on system performance indicators. The results indicated a significant hydrogen production potential (about 141MW) with an energy ratio of about 0.74 from the reference black liquor capacity (about 243.5MW) and extra biomass import (about 50MW) to compensate total energy deficit. About 867,000tonnes of CO(2) abatement per year is estimated i.e. combining CO(2) capture and CO(2) offset from hydrogen replacing motor gasoline. The hydrogen production offers a substantial motor fuel replacement especially in regions with large pulp and paper industry e.g. about 63% of domestic gasoline replacement in Sweden. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

U. S. PHOSPHATE INDUSTRY: REVISED PROSPECTS AND POTENTIAL.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKelvey, Vincent E.

1985-01-01

Although the United States is the world's largest producer and exporter of phosphates, serious doubts have arisen in recent years that U. S. deposits could sustain this important role. The development of borehole mining; i. e. , extracting the phosphate matrix as a slurry through a drill hole, however, is cause for optimism. Commercial borehole mining is still years away, but the potential advantages are numerous and important. Recent surveys also suggest that offshore deposits and deeply buried onshore deposits much exceed previous estimates. On the basis of the new technology and revised resource estimates, one can easily see the potential for increased production from U. S. deposits.

What are the cost savings associated with providing access to specialist care through the Champlain BASE eConsult service? A costing evaluation

PubMed Central

Liddy, Clare; Drosinis, Paul; Deri Armstrong, Catherine; McKellips, Fanny; Afkham, Amir; Keely, Erin

2016-01-01

Objective This study estimates the costs and potential savings associated with all eConsult cases completed between 1 April 2014 and 31 March 2015. Design Costing evaluation from the societal perspective estimating the costs and potential savings associated with all eConsults completed during the study period. Setting Champlain health region in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Population Primary care providers and specialists registered to use the eConsult service. Main outcome measures Costs included (1) delivery costs; (2) specialist remuneration; (3) costs associated with traditional (face-to-face) referrals initiated as a result of eConsult. Potential savings included (1) costs of traditional referrals avoided; (2) indirect patient savings through avoided travel and lost wages/productivity. Net potential societal cost savings were estimated by subtracting total costs from total potential savings. Results A total of 3487 eConsults were completed during the study period. In 40% of eConsults, a face-to-face specialist visit was originally contemplated but avoided as result of eConsult. In 3% of eConsults, a face-to-face specialist visit was not originally contemplated but was prompted as a result of the eConsult. From the societal perspective, total costs were estimated at $207 787 and total potential savings were $246 516. eConsult led to a net societal saving of $38 729 or $11 per eConsult. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate potential cost savings from the societal perspective, as patients avoided the travel costs and lost wages/productivity associated with face-to-face specialist visits. Greater savings are expected once we account for other costs such as avoided tests and visits and potential improved health outcomes associated with shorter wait times. Our findings are valuable for healthcare delivery decision-makers as they seek solutions to improve care in a patient-centred and efficient manner. PMID:27338880

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia.

PubMed

Leoncini, Riccardo; Rentocchini, Francesco

2012-11-01

Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine. We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The economic impact of pig-associated parasitic zoonosis in Northern Lao PDR.

PubMed

Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Conlan, James V; Racloz, Vanessa Nadine; Reid, Simon Andrew; Blacksell, Stuart D; Fenwick, Stanley G; Thompson, Andrew R C; Khamlome, Boualam; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Whittaker, Maxine

2013-03-01

The parasitic zoonoses human cysticercosis (Taenia solium), taeniasis (other Taenia species) and trichinellosis (Trichinella species) are endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). This study was designed to quantify the economic burden pig-associated zoonotic disease pose in Lao PDR. In particular, the analysis included estimation of the losses in the pork industry as well as losses due to human illness and lost productivity. A Markov-probability based decision-tree model was chosen to form the basis of the calculations to estimate the economic and public health impacts of taeniasis, trichinellosis and cysticercosis. Two different decision trees were run simultaneously on the model's human cohort. A third decision tree simulated the potential impacts on pig production. The human capital method was used to estimate productivity loss. The results found varied significantly depending on the rate of hospitalisation due to neurocysticerosis. This study is the first systematic estimate of the economic impact of pig-associated zoonotic diseases in Lao PDR that demonstrates the significance of the diseases in that country.

A Review of Methods Applied by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Assessment of Identified Geothermal Resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Colin F.; Reed, Marshall J.; Mariner, Robert H.

2008-01-01

The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an updated assessment of geothermal resources in the United States. The primary method applied in assessments of identified geothermal systems by the USGS and other organizations is the volume method, in which the recoverable heat is estimated from the thermal energy available in a reservoir. An important focus in the assessment project is on the development of geothermal resource models consistent with the production histories and observed characteristics of exploited geothermal fields. The new assessment will incorporate some changes in the models for temperature and depth ranges for electric power production, preferred chemical geothermometers for estimates of reservoir temperatures, estimates of reservoir volumes, and geothermal energy recovery factors. Monte Carlo simulations are used to characterize uncertainties in the estimates of electric power generation. These new models for the recovery of heat from heterogeneous, fractured reservoirs provide a physically realistic basis for evaluating the production potential of natural geothermal reservoirs.

Viral lysis, flagellate grazing potential, and bacterial production in Lake Pavin.

PubMed

Bettarel, Y; Amblard, C; Sime-Ngando, T; Carrias, J-F; Sargos, D; Garabétian, F; Lavandier, P

2003-02-01

Abundances of different compartments of the microbial loop (i.e., viruses, heterotrophic bacteria, nonpigmented nanoflagellates, and pigmented nanoflagellates), bacterial heterotrophic production (BHP), viral lysis, and potential flagellate grazing impacts on the bacterial assemblages were estimated during a short-term study (24 h) conducted in June 1998 in the epilimnion (5 m) and metalimnion (10 m) of a moderate-altitude oligomesotrophic lake (Lake Pavin, France). Viral and bacterial abundances were higher in the metalimnion than in the epilimnion, whereas pigmented and nonpigmented nanoflagellates were more numerous in the epilimnion. The control of the BHP due to viral lysis (determined by examination of viral-containing bacteria using a transmission electron microscope) was significantly higher in the meta- (range = 6.0-33.7%, mean = 15.6%) than in the epilimnion (3.5-10.3%, 6.4%). The same was for the losses of BHP from the potential predation by nanoflagellates which ranged from 0.5 to 115.4% (mean = 38.7%) in the epilimnion, and from 0.7 to 97.5% (mean = 66.7%) in the metalimnion. Finally, estimated viral mediated mortality rates from the percentage of visibly infected cells and potential nanoflagellate grazing rates based on assumed clearance rates suggest that flagellates consumed a larger proportion of bacterial production than was lost to viral lysis.

Product Carbon Footprints and Their Uncertainties in Comparative Decision Contexts

PubMed Central

Dao, Hai M.; Phan, Lam T.; de Snoo, Geert R.

2015-01-01

In response to growing awareness of climate change, requests to establish product carbon footprints have been increasing. Product carbon footprints are life cycle assessments restricted to just one impact category, global warming. Product carbon footprint studies generate life cycle inventory results, listing the environmental emissions of greenhouse gases from a product’s lifecycle, and characterize these by their global warming potentials, producing product carbon footprints that are commonly communicated as point values. In the present research we show that the uncertainties surrounding these point values necessitate more sophisticated ways of communicating product carbon footprints, using different sizes of catfish (Pangasius spp.) farms in Vietnam as a case study. As most product carbon footprint studies only have a comparative meaning, we used dependent sampling to produce relative results in order to increase the power for identifying environmentally superior products. We therefore argue that product carbon footprints, supported by quantitative uncertainty estimates, should be used to test hypotheses, rather than to provide point value estimates or plain confidence intervals of products’ environmental performance. PMID:25781175

Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

2014-11-01

Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

Years of potential life lost and productivity costs due to premature cancer-related mortality in Iran.

PubMed

Khorasani, Soheila; Rezaei, Satar; Rashidian, Hamideh; Daroudi, Rajabali

2015-01-01

Cancer is recently one of the major concerns of the public health both in the world and Iran. To inform priorities for cancer control, this study estimated years of potential life lost (YPLL) and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality in Iran in 2012. The number of cancer deaths by sex for all cancers and the ten leading causes of cancer deaths in Iran in 2012 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. The life expectancy method and the human capital approach were used to estimate the YPLL and the value of productivity lost due to cancer-related premature mortality. There were 53,350 cancer-related deaths in Iran. We estimated that these cancer deaths resulted in 1,112,680 YPLL in total, 563,332 (50.6%) in males and 549,348 (49.4%) in females. The top 10 ranked cancers accounted for 75% of total death and 70% of total YPLL in the males and 69% for both death and YPLL in the females. The largest contributors for YPLL in the two genders were stomach and breast cancers, respectively. The total cost of lost productivity due to cancer-related premature mortality discounted at 3% rate in Iran, was US$ 1.93 billion. The most costly cancer for the males was stomach, while for the females it was breast cancer. The percentage of the total costs that were attributable to the top 10 cancers was 67% in the males and 71% in the females. The YPLL and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality are substantial in Iran. Setting resource allocation priorities to cancers that occur in younger working-age individuals (such as brain and central nervous system) and/or cancers with high incidence and mortality rates (such as stomach and breast) could potentially decrease the productivity losses and the YPLL to a great extent in Iran.

An Approach to Modeling the Water Balance Sensitivity to Landscape Vegetation Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, I. N.; Tarboton, D. G.

2008-12-01

Watershed development and management require an understanding of how hydrological processes affect water balance components. The study of water resources management, especially in Western United States, is currently motivated by climate change, the impact of vegetation cover change on water production, and the need to manage water supplies. Vegetation management and its relation to runoff has been well documented, as reduction of forest cover, reducing evapotranspiration, increases water yield and in contrast the establishment of forest cover on sparsely vegetated land, increasing evapotranspiration, deceases water yield. This paper presents a water balance model developed to quantify the sensitivity of runoff production to changes in vegetation based on differences in evapotranspiration from different land cover types. The model is intended to provide a simple framework for estimating long term yield changes due to managed vegetation change. The model assumes that relative potential evapotranspiration from specific land cover can be quantified by a set of potential evapotranspiration coefficients for each land cover type. The model uses the Budyko curve to partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff over the long term. Potential evapotranspiration is estimated from the Budyko curve for present conditions, then adjusted for land cover changes using the relative potential evapotranspiration coefficients for each land cover type. The adjusted potential evapotranspiration is then partitioned using the Budyko curve to provide estimates of long term runoff and evapotranspiration for the changed conditions. We found that the changes in runoff were in general close to being linearly proportional to the changes in land cover. In Utah study watersheds, reducing 50% of the present coniferous forests resulted in runoff increase that ranged from 0.5 to 38 mm/year, while the transition of 50% of area present as range/shrub/other to forest resulted in runoff decrease that ranged from 3.8 to 37 mm/year. The model helps to evaluate long term runoff production sensitivities to vegetation changes and answer, in a broad sense without requiring detailed information or modeling, how much runoff production could potentially be changed through vegetation management. The theoretical approach taken in this study is simple and general and could be applied to a wide range of watersheds.

Suspect Screening Analysis of Chemicals in Consumer Products.

PubMed

Phillips, Katherine A; Yau, Alice; Favela, Kristin A; Isaacs, Kristin K; McEachran, Andrew; Grulke, Christopher; Richard, Ann M; Williams, Antony J; Sobus, Jon R; Thomas, Russell S; Wambaugh, John F

2018-03-06

A two-dimensional gas chromatography-time-of-flight/mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOF/MS) suspect screening analysis method was used to rapidly characterize chemicals in 100 consumer products-which included formulations (e.g., shampoos, paints), articles (e.g., upholsteries, shower curtains), and foods (cereals)-and therefore supports broader efforts to prioritize chemicals based on potential human health risks. Analyses yielded 4270 unique chemical signatures across the products, with 1602 signatures tentatively identified using the National Institute of Standards and Technology 2008 spectral database. Chemical standards confirmed the presence of 119 compounds. Of the 1602 tentatively identified chemicals, 1404 were not present in a public database of known consumer product chemicals. Reported data and model predictions of chemical functional use were applied to evaluate the tentative chemical identifications. Estimated chemical concentrations were compared to manufacturer-reported values and other measured data. Chemical presence and concentration data can now be used to improve estimates of chemical exposure, and refine estimates of risk posed to human health and the environment.

[Assessment on the availability of nitrogen fertilization in improving carbon sequestration potential of China's cropland soil].

PubMed

Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Duan, Xiao-Nan; Zheng, Hua

2008-10-01

With reference to the situation of nitrogen fertilization in 2003 and the recommendations from agricultural experts on fertilization to different crops, two scenarios, namely, 'current situation' and 'fertilization as recommended', were set for estimating the current and potential carbon sequestration of China's cropland soil under nitrogen fertilization. After collecting and analyzing the typical data from the long-term agricultural experiment stations all over China, and based on the recent studies of soil organic matter and nutrient dynamics, we plotted China into four agricultural regions, and estimated the carbon sequestration rate and potential of cropland soil under the two scenarios in each province of China. Meanwhile, with the data concerning fossil fuel consumption for fertilizer production and nitrogen fertilization, the greenhouse gas leakage caused by nitrogen fertilizer production and application was estimated with the help of the parameters given by domestic studies and IPCC. We further proposed that the available carbon sequestration potential of cropland soil could be taken as the criterion of the validity and availability of carbon sequestration measures. The results showed that the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer could bring about a carbon sequestration potential of 21.9 Tg C x a(-1) in current situation, and 30.2 Tg C x a(-1) with fertilization as recommended. However, under the two scenarios, the greenhouse gas leakage caused by fertilizer production and application would reach 72.9 Tg C x a(-1) and 91.4 Tg C x a(-1), and thus, the actual available carbon sequestration potential would be -51.0 Tg C x a(-1) and -61.1 Tg C x a(-1), respectively. The situation was even worse under the 'fertilization as recommended' scenario, because the increase in the amount of nitrogen fertilization would lead to 10. 1 Tg C x a(-1) or more net greenhouse gas emission. All these results indicated that the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer could not be taken as a feasible measure for the carbon sequestration of cropland soil in China. Since synthetic fertilizer application is the basic guarantee of China's crop production, it was suggested to increase the efficiency of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, and at the same time, to cut down the synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production and its application on the premise that the crop yield should be ensured.

Potential Air Emission Impacts of Cellulosic Ethanol Production at Seven Demonstration Refineries in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This paper reports on the estimated potential air emissions as found in air permits and supporting documentation for seven of the first group of pre-commercial or Ademonstration@ U.S. cellulosic ethanol refineries currently operating or planning to operate in the near future. Th...

Recovery of paper and wood for recycling : actual and potential

Treesearch

P. J. Ince; D. B. McKeever

1995-01-01

Quantities of paper and wood recovered annually for recycling were estimated for all principal commercial uses in the United States, based on material consumption and end-use data. Principal categories of commercial uses were identified and relative quantities were compared. Some innovative or novel commercial product developments were identified. The potential for...

The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands.

PubMed

Campbell, J Elliott; Lobell, David B; Genova, Robert C; Field, Christopher B

2008-08-01

Converting forest lands into bioenergy agriculture could accelerate climate change by emitting carbon stored in forests, while converting food agriculture lands into bioenergy agriculture could threaten food security. Both problems are potentially avoided by using abandoned agriculture lands for bioenergy agriculture. Here we show the global potential for bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands to be less than 8% of current primary energy demand, based on historical land use data, satellite-derived land cover data, and global ecosystem modeling. The estimated global area of abandoned agriculture is 385-472 million hectares, or 66-110% of the areas reported in previous preliminary assessments. The area-weighted mean production of above-ground biomass is 4.3 tons ha(-1) y(-1), in contrast to estimates of up to 10 tons ha(-1) y(-1) in previous assessments. The energy content of potential biomass grown on 100% of abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current energy demand is low.

Biogas Potential in the United States (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2013-10-01

Biogas has received increased attention as an alternative energy source in the United States. The factsheet provides information about the biogas (methane) potential from various sources in the country (by county and state) and estimates the power generation and transportation fuels production (renewable natural gas) potential from these biogas sources. It provides valuable information to the industry, academia and policy makers in support of their future decisions.

Using airborne light detection and ranging as a sampling tool for estimating forest biomass resources in the upper Tanana Valley of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Hans-Erik Andersen; Jacob Strunk; Hailemariam Temesgen

2011-01-01

Airborne laser scanning, collected in a sampling mode, has the potential to be a valuable tool for estimating the biomass resources available to support bioenergy production in rural communities of interior Alaska. In this study, we present a methodology for estimating forest biomass over a 201,226-ha area (of which 163,913 ha are forested) in the upper Tanana valley...

Spatially distributed potential of landfill biogas production and electric power generation in Brazil.

PubMed

Lima, Rodolfo M; Santos, Afonso H M; Pereira, Camilo R S; Flauzino, Bárbara K; Pereira, Ana Cristina O S; Nogueira, Fábio J H; Valverde, José Alfredo R

2018-04-01

Due to the relatively low investment, operation costs, and technical requirements, landfills are still the most widespread alternative for final disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW). The biogas produced in the landfill, a renewable energy source, may be an important alternative for electric power generation. Brazil has a significant number of operating landfills, which receive the most part of the collected MSW. However, the country has only 17 landfill biogas power plants (LBPPs), resulting in about 122 MW of capacity. The United Kingdom, for instance, which is about 3 times smaller than Brazil in population, has 442 LBPPs (corresponding to 1051 MW of capacity). This fact highlights a considerable unexplored potential of landfill biogas in Brazil. It is also important to estimate this potential throughout the country to provide information for the government, researchers and companies in decision making, planning and formulation of public policies regarding this use of landfill biogas. Therefore, this study aims at estimating the spatially distributed potential of landfill biogas production that can be used for electric power generation in Brazil from 2015 to 2045, considering two scenarios: (i) operating sanitary landfills and (ii) hypothetical scenario of Territorial Arrangements (TA) comprising every Brazilian city, considering one landfill per TA. The total installed capacity estimated in 2018 for scenario 1 is about 523 MW and 87% of this number are related to LBPPs bigger than 1 MW. In this same year, the total installed capacity estimated for scenario 2 is 768 MW and 95% of this number are related to LBPPs bigger than 1 MW. These results emphasize that Brazil has a considerable unexplored potential of landfill biogas and the importance of municipal consortiums for MSW management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of Satellite-Derived Cloud Phase, Cloud Top Height, and Liquid Water Path into an Operational Aircraft Icing Nowcasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haggerty, Julie; McDonough, Frank; Black, Jennifer; Landott, Scott; Wolff, Cory; Mueller, Steven; Minnis, Patrick; Smith, William, Jr.

2008-01-01

Operational products used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to alert pilots of hazardous icing provide nowcast and short-term forecast estimates of the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets. The Current Icing Product (CIP) system employs basic satellite-derived information, including a cloud mask and cloud top temperature estimates, together with multiple other data sources to produce a gridded, three-dimensional, hourly depiction of icing probability and severity. Advanced satellite-derived cloud products developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) provide a more detailed description of cloud properties (primarily at cloud top) compared to the basic satellite-derived information used currently in CIP. Cloud hydrometeor phase, liquid water path, cloud effective temperature, and cloud top height as estimated by the LaRC algorithms are into the CIP fuzzy logic scheme and a confidence value is determined. Examples of CIP products before and after the integration of the LaRC satellite-derived products will be presented at the conference.

Anaerobic digestion of stillage fractions - estimation of the potential for energy recovery in bioethanol plants.

PubMed

Drosg, B; Fuchs, W; Meixner, K; Waltenberger, R; Kirchmayr, R; Braun, R; Bochmann, G

2013-01-01

Stillage processing can require more than one third of the thermal energy demand of a dry-grind bioethanol production plant. Therefore, for every stillage fraction occurring in stillage processing the potential of energy recovery by anaerobic digestion (AD) was estimated. In the case of whole stillage up to 128% of the thermal energy demand in the process can be provided, so even an energetically self-sufficient bioethanol production process is possible. For wet cake the recovery potential of thermal energy is 57%, for thin stillage 41%, for syrup 40% and for the evaporation condensate 2.5%. Specific issues for establishing AD of stillage fractions are evaluated in detail; these are high nitrogen concentrations, digestate treatment and trace element supply. If animal feed is co-produced at the bioethanol plant and digestate fractions are to be reused as process water, a sufficient quality is necessary. Most interesting stillage fractions as substrates for AD are whole stillage, thin stillage and the evaporation condensate. For these fractions process details are presented.

Biohythane production from marine macroalgae Sargassum sp. coupling dark fermentation and anaerobic digestion.

PubMed

Costa, José C; Oliveira, João V; Pereira, Maria A; Alves, Maria M; Abreu, Angela A

2015-08-01

Potential biohythane production from Sargassum sp. was evaluated in a two stage process. In the first stage, hydrogen dark fermentation was performed by Caldicellulosiruptor saccharolyticus. Sargassum sp. concentrations (VS) of 2.5, 4.9 and 7.4gL(-1) and initial inoculum concentrations (CDW) of 0.04 and 0.09gL(-1) of C. saccharolyticus were used in substrate/inoculum ratios ranging from 28 to 123. The end products from hydrogen production process were subsequently used for biogas production. The highest hydrogen and methane production yields, 91.3±3.3Lkg(-1) and 541±10Lkg(-1), respectively, were achieved with 2.5gL(-1) of Sargassum sp. (VS) and 0.09gL(-1)of inoculum (CDW). The biogas produced contained 14-20% of hydrogen. Potential energy production from Sargassum sp. in two stage process was estimated in 242GJha(-1)yr(-1). A maximum energy supply of 600EJyr(-1) could be obtained from the ocean potential area for macroalgae production. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exposure to potential occupational asthmogens: prevalence data from the National Occupational Exposure Survey.

PubMed

de la Hoz, R E; Young, R O; Pedersen, D H

1997-02-01

Few data are available about the prevalence of occupational exposures to agents which can cause occupational asthma or aggravate preexisting asthma (asthmogens). Using potential occupational exposure data from the National Occupational Exposure Survey (NOES) of 1980-1983, we investigated the number of asthmogen exposures, asthmogen-exposure(s) per production worker, and unprotected occupational asthmogen exposures in different industries and occupations. Data for the entire United States were used to generate estimates of occupational exposure at two selected state and local levels. It was estimated that 7,864,000 workers in the surveyed industries were potentially exposed to one or more occupational asthmogen(s) in the United States. The average number of observed potential exposures per asthmogen-exposed worker was 4.4, and varied from 11.9, in the Water Transportation industry, to 1.2 in Local and Suburban transportation. The largest number of observed potential exposures was recorded in the Apparel and Other Finished Products (garment) industry. This work and further analyses using this approach are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiology of occupational asthma, and to serve as a guide to target future occupational asthma surveillance efforts.

Efficiency of seed production in southern pine seed orchards

Treesearch

David L. Bramlett

1977-01-01

Seed production in southern pine seed orchards can be evaluated by estimating the efficiency of four separate stages of cone, seed, and seedling development. Calculated values are: cone efficiency (CE), the ratio of mature cones to the initial flower crop; seed efficiency (SE), the ratio of filled seeds per cone to the seed potential; extraction efficiency (EE), the...

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

Estimate of fine root production including the impact of decomposed roots in a Bornean tropical rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katayama, Ayumi; Khoon Koh, Lip; Kume, Tomonori; Makita, Naoki; Matsumoto, Kazuho; Ohashi, Mizue

2016-04-01

Considerable carbon is allocated belowground and used for respiration and production of roots. It is reported that approximately 40 % of GPP is allocated belowground in a Bornean tropical rainforest, which is much higher than those in Neotropical rainforests. This may be caused by high root production in this forest. Ingrowth core is a popular method for estimating fine root production, but recent study by Osawa et al. (2012) showed potential underestimates of this method because of the lack of consideration of the impact of decomposed roots. It is important to estimate fine root production with consideration for the decomposed roots, especially in tropics where decomposition rate is higher than other regions. Therefore, objective of this study is to estimate fine root production with consideration of decomposed roots using ingrowth cores and root litter-bag in the tropical rainforest. The study was conducted in Lambir Hills National Park in Borneo. Ingrowth cores and litter bags for fine roots were buried in March 2013. Eighteen ingrowth cores and 27 litter bags were collected in May, September 2013, March 2014 and March 2015, respectively. Fine root production was comparable to aboveground biomass increment and litterfall amount, and accounted only 10% of GPP in this study site, suggesting most of the carbon allocated to belowground might be used for other purposes. Fine root production was comparable to those in Neotropics. Decomposed roots accounted for 18% of fine root production. This result suggests that no consideration of decomposed fine roots may cause underestimate of fine root production.

The health and economic benefits of reducing intimate partner violence: an Australian example.

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Sheppard, Lauren; Cumming, Toby B; Thayabaranathan, Tharshanah; Pearce, Dora C; Carter, Rob; Magnus, Anne

2015-07-09

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has important impacts on the health of women in society. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of IPV in the 2008 Australian female adult population. Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 5 percentage point absolute feasible reduction target in the prevalence of IPV from current Australian levels (27%). IPV is not measured in national surveys. Levels of psychological distress were used as a proxy for exposure to IPV since psychological conditions represent three-quarters of the disease burden from IPV. Lifetime cohort health benefits for females were estimated as fewer incident cases of violence-related disease and injury; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Opportunity cost savings were estimated for the health sector, paid and unpaid production and leisure from reduced incidence of IPV-related disease and deaths. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of females with moderate psychological distress (lifetime IPV exposure) against high or very high distress (current IPV exposure), and valued using the friction cost approach (FCA). The impact of improved health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modelled from time use survey data. Potential costs associated with interventions to reduce IPV were not considered. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariable sensitivity analyses were undertaken. A 5 percentage point absolute reduction in the lifetime prevalence of IPV in the 2008 Australian female population was estimated to produce 6000 fewer incident cases of disease/injury, 74 fewer deaths, 5000 fewer DALYs lost and provide gains of 926,000 working days, 371,000 days of home-based production and 428,000 leisure days. Overall, AUD371 million in opportunity cost savings could be achievable. The greatest economic savings would be home-based production (AUD147 million), followed by leisure time (AUD98 million), workforce production (AUD94 million) and reduced health sector costs (AUD38 million). This study contributes new knowledge about the economic impact of IPV in females. The findings provide evidence of large potential opportunity cost savings from reducing the prevalence of IPV and reinforce the need to reduce IPV in Australia, and elsewhere.

Post-Disaster Food and Nutrition from Urban Agriculture: A Self-Sufficiency Analysis of Nerima Ward, Tokyo.

PubMed

Sioen, Giles Bruno; Sekiyama, Makiko; Terada, Toru; Yokohari, Makoto

2017-07-10

Background : Post-earthquake studies from around the world have reported that survivors relying on emergency food for prolonged periods of time experienced several dietary related health problems. The present study aimed to quantify the potential nutrient production of urban agricultural vegetables and the resulting nutritional self-sufficiency throughout the year for mitigating post-disaster situations. Methods : We estimated the vegetable production of urban agriculture throughout the year. Two methods were developed to capture the production from professional and hobby farms: Method I utilized secondary governmental data on agricultural production from professional farms, and Method II was based on a supplementary spatial analysis to estimate the production from hobby farms. Next, the weight of produced vegetables [t] was converted into nutrients [kg]. Furthermore, the self-sufficiency by nutrient and time of year was estimated by incorporating the reference consumption of vegetables [kg], recommended dietary allowance of nutrients per capita [mg], and population statistics. The research was conducted in Nerima, the second most populous ward of Tokyo's 23 special wards. Self-sufficiency rates were calculated with the registered residents. Results : The estimated total vegetable production of 5660 tons was equivalent to a weight-based self-sufficiency rate of 6.18%. The average nutritional self-sufficiencies of Methods I and II were 2.48% and 0.38%, respectively, resulting in an aggregated average of 2.86%. Fluctuations throughout the year were observed according to the harvest seasons of the available crops. Vitamin K (6.15%) had the highest self-sufficiency of selected nutrients, while calcium had the lowest (0.96%). Conclusions : This study suggests that depending on the time of year, urban agriculture has the potential to contribute nutrients to diets during post-disaster situations as disaster preparedness food. Emergency responses should be targeted according to the time of year the disaster takes place to meet nutrient requirements in periods of low self-sufficiency and prevent gastrointestinal symptoms and cardiovascular diseases among survivors.

Post-Disaster Food and Nutrition from Urban Agriculture: A Self-Sufficiency Analysis of Nerima Ward, Tokyo

PubMed Central

Sekiyama, Makiko; Terada, Toru; Yokohari, Makoto

2017-01-01

Background: Post-earthquake studies from around the world have reported that survivors relying on emergency food for prolonged periods of time experienced several dietary related health problems. The present study aimed to quantify the potential nutrient production of urban agricultural vegetables and the resulting nutritional self-sufficiency throughout the year for mitigating post-disaster situations. Methods: We estimated the vegetable production of urban agriculture throughout the year. Two methods were developed to capture the production from professional and hobby farms: Method I utilized secondary governmental data on agricultural production from professional farms, and Method II was based on a supplementary spatial analysis to estimate the production from hobby farms. Next, the weight of produced vegetables [t] was converted into nutrients [kg]. Furthermore, the self-sufficiency by nutrient and time of year was estimated by incorporating the reference consumption of vegetables [kg], recommended dietary allowance of nutrients per capita [mg], and population statistics. The research was conducted in Nerima, the second most populous ward of Tokyo’s 23 special wards. Self-sufficiency rates were calculated with the registered residents. Results: The estimated total vegetable production of 5660 tons was equivalent to a weight-based self-sufficiency rate of 6.18%. The average nutritional self-sufficiencies of Methods I and II were 2.48% and 0.38%, respectively, resulting in an aggregated average of 2.86%. Fluctuations throughout the year were observed according to the harvest seasons of the available crops. Vitamin K (6.15%) had the highest self-sufficiency of selected nutrients, while calcium had the lowest (0.96%). Conclusions: This study suggests that depending on the time of year, urban agriculture has the potential to contribute nutrients to diets during post-disaster situations as disaster preparedness food. Emergency responses should be targeted according to the time of year the disaster takes place to meet nutrient requirements in periods of low self-sufficiency and prevent gastrointestinal symptoms and cardiovascular diseases among survivors. PMID:28698515

Forecasting fish biomasses, densities, productions, and bioaccumulation potentials of mid-atlantic wadeable streams.

PubMed

Barber, M Craig; Rashleigh, Brenda; Cyterski, Michael J

2016-01-01

Regional fishery conditions of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams in the eastern United States are estimated using the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) bioaccumulation and fish community model and data collected by the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Average annual biomasses and population densities and annual productions are estimated for 352 randomly selected streams. Realized bioaccumulation factors (BAF) and biomagnification factors (BMF), which are dependent on these forecasted biomasses, population densities, and productions, are also estimated by assuming constant water exposures to methylmercury and tetra-, penta-, hexa-, and hepta-chlorinated biphenyls. Using observed biomasses, observed densities, and estimated annual productions of total fish from 3 regions assumed to support healthy fisheries as benchmarks (eastern Tennessee and Catskill Mountain trout streams and Ozark Mountains smallmouth bass streams), 58% of the region's wadeable streams are estimated to be in marginal or poor condition (i.e., not healthy). Using simulated BAFs and EMAP Hg fish concentrations, we also estimate that approximately 24% of the game fish and subsistence fishing species that are found in streams having detectable Hg concentrations would exceed an acceptable human consumption criterion of 0.185 μg/g wet wt. Importantly, such streams have been estimated to represent 78.2% to 84.4% of the Mid-Atlantic's wadeable stream lengths. Our results demonstrate how a dynamic simulation model can support regional assessment and trends analysis for fisheries. © 2015 SETAC.

Geostellar: Remote Solar Energy Assessments Personalized

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2015-10-01

Geostellar has produced an online tool that generates a unique solar profile for homeowners to learn about the financial benefits to installing rooftop solar panels on their home. The website incorporates the physical building characteristics of the home, including shading, slope, and orientation of the roof, and applies electricity costs and incentives to determine the best solar energy estimated energy production values against actual installed rooftop photovoltaic systems. The validation conducted by NREL concluded that over three-quarters of Geostellar's potential size estimates are at least as large as the actual installed systems, indicating a correct assessment of roof availability. Inmore » addition, 87% of Geostellar's 25-year production estimates are within 90% of the actual PV Watts results.« less

Solar energy research and utilization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cherry, W. R.

1974-01-01

The role is described that solar energy will play in the heating and cooling of buildings, the production of renewable gaseous, liquid and solid fuels, and the production of electric power over the next 45 years. Potential impacts on the various energy markets and estimated costs of such systems are discussed along with illustrations of some of the processes to accomplish the goals. The conclusions of the NSF/NASA Solar Energy Panel (1972) are given along with the estimated costs to accomplish the 15 year recommended program and also the recent and near future budget appropriations and recommendations are included.

The potential for improving remote primary productivity estimates through subsurface chlorophyll and irradiance measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacox, Michael G.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Kahru, Mati; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Kudela, Raphael M.

2015-02-01

A 26-year record of depth integrated primary productivity (PP) in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) is analyzed with the goal of improving satellite net primary productivity (PP) estimates. Modest improvements in PP model performance are achieved by tuning existing algorithms for the SCCS, particularly by parameterizing carbon fixation rate in the vertically generalized production model as a function of surface chlorophyll concentration and distance from shore. Much larger improvements are enabled by improving the accuracy of subsurface chlorophyll and light profiles. In a simple vertically resolved production model for the SCCS (VRPM-SC), substitution of in situ surface data for remote sensing estimates offers only marginal improvements in model r2 (from 0.54 to 0.56) and total log10 root mean squared difference (from 0.22 to 0.21), while inclusion of in situ chlorophyll and light profiles improves these metrics to 0.77 and 0.15, respectively. Autonomous underwater gliders, capable of measuring subsurface properties on long-term, long-range deployments, significantly improve PP model fidelity in the SCCS. We suggest their use (and that of other autonomous profilers such as Argo floats) in conjunction with satellites as a way forward for large-scale improvements in PP estimation.

Potential Applications of Gosat Based Carbon Budget Products to Refine Terrestrial Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.

2011-12-01

Estimation of carbon exchange in terrestrial ecosystem associates with difficulties due to complex entanglement of physical and biological processes: thus, the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) estimated from simulation often differs among process-based terrestrial ecosystem models. In addition to complexity of the system, validation can only be conducted in a point scale since reliable observation is only available from ground observations. With a lack of large spatial data, extension of model simulation to a global scale results in significant uncertainty in the future carbon balance and climate change. Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), launched by the Japanese space agency (JAXA) in January, 2009, is the 1st operational satellite promised to deliver the net land-atmosphere carbon budget to the terrestrial biosphere research community. Using that information, the model reproducibility of carbon budget is expected to improve: hence, gives a better estimation of the future climate change. This initial analysis is to seek and evaluate the potential applications of GOSAT observation toward the sophistication of terrestrial ecosystem model. The present study was conducted in two processes: site-based analysis using eddy covariance observation data to assess the potential use of terrestrial carbon fluxes (GPP, RE, and NEP) to refine the model, and extension of the point scale analysis to spatial using Carbon Tracker product as a prototype of GOSAT product. In the first phase of the experiment, it was verified that an optimization routine adapted to a terrestrial model, Biome-BGC, yielded the improved result with respect to eddy covariance observation data from AsiaFlux Network. Spatial data sets used in the second phase were consists of GPP from empirical algorithm (e.g. support vector machine), NEP from Carbon Tracker, and RE from the combination of these. These spatial carbon flux estimations was used to refine the model applying the exactly same optimization procedure as the point analysis, and found that these spatial data help to improve the model's overall reproducibility. The GOSAT product is expected to have higher accuracy since it uses global CO2 observations. Therefore, with the application of GOSAT data, a better estimation of terrestrial carbon cycle can be achieved with optimization. It is anticipated to carry out more detailed analysis upon the arrival of GOSAT product and to verify the reduction in the uncertainty in the future carbon budget and the climate change with the calibrated models, which is the major contribution can be achieved from GOSAT.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020.

PubMed

Ozawa, Sachiko; Clark, Samantha; Portnoy, Allison; Grewal, Simrun; Stack, Meghan L; Sinha, Anushua; Mirelman, Andrew; Franklin, Heather; Friberg, Ingrid K; Tam, Yvonne; Walker, Neff; Clark, Andrew; Ferrari, Matthew; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Sweet, Steven; Goldie, Sue J; Garske, Tini; Li, Michelle; Hansen, Peter M; Johnson, Hope L; Walker, Damian

2017-09-01

To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs - expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) - of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.

Investigation of Laser Based Thomson Scattering

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-04

laser liquid interaction has the potential to provide sources of energetic ions and fission products such as neutrons . The development of strong...by the production of heavy water d-d fusion and the production of neutrons . Finally, in section VII the tight focusing of light by a 2π mirror is...laser system is estimated to be 10 -15 , using cross- polarization modulation and two plasma mirrors. These parameters allow prepulse expansion to be

How important is drinking water exposure for the risks of engineered nanoparticles to consumers?

PubMed

Tiede, Karen; Hanssen, Steffen Foss; Westerhoff, Paul; Fern, Gordon J; Hankin, Steven M; Aitken, Robert J; Chaudhry, Qasim; Boxall, Alistair B A

2016-01-01

This study explored the potential for engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) to contaminate the UK drinking water supplies and established the significance of the drinking water exposure route compared to other routes of human exposure. A review of the occurrence and quantities of ENPs in different product types on the UK market as well as release scenarios, their possible fate and behaviour in raw water and during drinking water treatment was performed. Based on the available data, all the ENPs which are likely to reach water sources were identified and categorized. Worst case concentrations of ENPs in raw water and treated drinking water, using a simple exposure model, were estimated and then qualitatively compared to available estimates for human exposure through other routes. A range of metal, metal oxide and organic-based ENPs were identified that have the potential to contaminate drinking waters. Worst case predicted concentrations in drinking waters were in the low- to sub-µg/l range and more realistic estimates were tens of ng/l or less. For the majority of product types, human exposure via drinking water was predicted to be less important than exposure via other routes. The exceptions were some clothing materials, paints and coatings and cleaning products containing Ag, Al, TiO2, Fe2O3 ENPs and carbon-based materials.

A Spatially-Explicit Technique for Evaluation of Alternative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystems contribute to maintaining human well-being directly through provision of goods and indirectly through provision of services that support clean water, clean air, flood protection and atmospheric stability. Transparently accounting for biophysical attributes from which humans derive benefit is essential to support dialog among the public, resource managers, decision makers, and scientists. We analyzed the potential ecosystem goods and services production from alternative future land use scenarios in the US Tampa Bay region. Ecosystem goods and service metrics included carbon sequestration, nitrogen removal, air pollutant removal, and stormwater retention. Each scenario was compared to a 2006 baseline land use. Estimated production of denitrification services changed by 28% and carbon sequestration by 20% between 2006 and the “business as usual” scenario. An alternative scenario focused on “natural resource protection” resulted in an estimated 9% loss in air pollution removal. Stormwater retention was estimated to change 18% from 2006 to 2060 projections. Cost effective areas for conservation, almost 1588 ha, beyond current conservation lands, were identified by comparing ecosystem goods and services production to assessed land values. Our ecosystem goods and services approach provides a simple and quantitative way to examine a more complete set of potential outcomes from land use decisions. This study demonstrates an approach for spatially expli

Primary production in the tropical continental shelf seas bordering northern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furnas, Miles J.; Carpenter, Edward J.

2016-10-01

Pelagic primary production (14C uptake) was measured 81 times between 1990 and 2013 at sites spanning the broad, shallow Northern Australian Shelf (NAS; 120-145°E) which borders the Australian continent. The mean of all areal production measurements was 1048±109 mg C m-2 d-1 (mean±95% CI). Estimates of areal primary production were correlated with integral upper-euphotic zone chlorophyll stocks (above the 50% and 20% light penetration depths) accessible to ocean color remote sensing and total water column chlorophyll standing crop, but not surface (0-2 m) chlorophyll concentrations. While the NAS is subject to a well characterized monsoonal climate regime (austral summer-NW monsoon -wet: austral winter- SE monsoon -dry), most seasonal differences in means of regional-scale chlorophyll standing crop (11-33 mg Chl m-2 for 12 of 15 season-region combinations) and areal primary production (700-1850 mg C m- day-1 for 12 of 15 season-region combinations) fell within a 3-fold range. Apart from the shallow waters of the Torres Strait and northern Great Barrier Reef, picoplankton (<2 μm size fraction) dominated chlorophyll standing crop and primary production with regional means of picoplankton contributions ranging from 45 to >80%. While the range of our post-1990 areal production estimates overlaps the range of production estimates made in NAS waters during 1960-62, the mean of post-1990 estimates is over 2-fold greater. We regard the difference to be due to improvements in production measurement techniques, particularly regarding the reduction of potential metal toxicity and incubations in more realistic light regimes.

Workplace smoking related absenteeism and productivity costs in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Tsai, S; Wen, C; Hu, S; Cheng, T; Huang, S

2005-01-01

Objective: To estimate productivity losses and financial costs to employers caused by cigarette smoking in the Taiwan workplace. Methods: The human capital approach was used to calculate lost productivity. Assuming the value of lost productivity was equal to the wage/salary rate and basing the calculations on smoking rate in the workforce, average days of absenteeism, average wage/salary rate, and increased risk and absenteeism among smokers obtained from earlier research, costs due to smoker absenteeism were estimated. Financial losses caused by passive smoking, smoking breaks, and occupational injuries were calculated. Results: Using a conservative estimate of excess absenteeism from work, male smokers took off an average of 4.36 sick days and male non-smokers took off an average of 3.30 sick days. Female smokers took off an average of 4.96 sick days and non-smoking females took off an average of 3.75 sick days. Excess absenteeism caused by employee smoking was estimated to cost US$178 million per annum for males and US$6 million for females at a total cost of US$184 million per annum. The time men and women spent taking smoking breaks amounted to nine days per year and six days per year, respectively, resulting in reduced output productivity losses of US$733 million. Increased sick leave costs due to passive smoking were approximately US$81 million. Potential costs incurred from occupational injuries among smoking employees were estimated to be US$34 million. Conclusions: Financial costs caused by increased absenteeism and reduced productivity from employees who smoke are significant in Taiwan. Based on conservative estimates, total costs attributed to smoking in the workforce were approximately US$1032 million. PMID:15923446

Workplace smoking related absenteeism and productivity costs in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, S P; Wen, C P; Hu, S C; Cheng, T Y; Huang, S J

2005-06-01

To estimate productivity losses and financial costs to employers caused by cigarette smoking in the Taiwan workplace. The human capital approach was used to calculate lost productivity. Assuming the value of lost productivity was equal to the wage/salary rate and basing the calculations on smoking rate in the workforce, average days of absenteeism, average wage/salary rate, and increased risk and absenteeism among smokers obtained from earlier research, costs due to smoker absenteeism were estimated. Financial losses caused by passive smoking, smoking breaks, and occupational injuries were calculated. Using a conservative estimate of excess absenteeism from work, male smokers took off an average of 4.36 sick days and male non-smokers took off an average of 3.30 sick days. Female smokers took off an average of 4.96 sick days and non-smoking females took off an average of 3.75 sick days. Excess absenteeism caused by employee smoking was estimated to cost USD 178 million per annum for males and USD 6 million for females at a total cost of USD 184 million per annum. The time men and women spent taking smoking breaks amounted to nine days per year and six days per year, respectively, resulting in reduced output productivity losses of USD 733 million. Increased sick leave costs due to passive smoking were approximately USD 81 million. Potential costs incurred from occupational injuries among smoking employees were estimated to be USD 34 million. Financial costs caused by increased absenteeism and reduced productivity from employees who smoke are significant in Taiwan. Based on conservative estimates, total costs attributed to smoking in the workforce were approximately USD 1032 million.

The Urban Food-Water Nexus: Modeling Water Footprints of Urban Agriculture using CityCrop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tooke, T. R.; Lathuilliere, M. J.; Coops, N. C.; Johnson, M. S.

2014-12-01

Urban agriculture provides a potential contribution towards more sustainable food production and mitigating some of the human impacts that accompany volatility in regional and global food supply. When considering the capacity of urban landscapes to produce food products, the impact of urban water demand required for food production in cities is often neglected. Urban agricultural studies also tend to be undertaken at broad spatial scales, overlooking the heterogeneity of urban form that exerts an extreme influence on the urban energy balance. As a result, urban planning and management practitioners require, but often do not have, spatially explicit and detailed information to support informed urban agricultural policy, especially as it relates to potential conflicts with sustainability goals targeting water-use. In this research we introduce a new model, CityCrop, a hybrid evapotranspiration-plant growth model that incorporates detailed digital representations of the urban surface and biophysical impacts of the built environment and urban trees to account for the daily variations in net surface radiation. The model enables very fine-scale (sub-meter) estimates of water footprints of potential urban agricultural production. Results of the model are demonstrated for an area in the City of Vancouver, Canada and compared to aspatial model estimates, demonstrating the unique considerations and sensitivities for current and future water footprints of urban agriculture and the implications for urban water planning and policy.

Using satellite vegetation and compound topographic indices to map highly erodible cropland buffers for cellulosic biofuel crop developments in eastern Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2015-01-01

Cultivating annual row crops in high topographic relief waterway buffers has negative environmental effects and can be environmentally unsustainable. Growing perennial grasses such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) for biomass (e.g., cellulosic biofuel feedstocks) instead of annual row crops in these high relief waterway buffers can improve local environmental conditions (e.g., reduce soil erosion and improve water quality through lower use of fertilizers and pesticides) and ecosystem services (e.g., minimize drought and flood impacts on production; improve wildlife habitat, plant vigor, and nitrogen retention due to post-senescence harvest for cellulosic biofuels; and serve as carbon sinks). The main objectives of this study are to: (1) identify cropland areas with high topographic relief (high runoff potentials) and high switchgrass productivity potential in eastern Nebraska that may be suitable for growing switchgrass, and (2) estimate the total switchgrass production gain from the potential biofuel areas. Results indicate that about 140,000 hectares of waterway buffers in eastern Nebraska are suitable for switchgrass development and the total annual estimated switchgrass biomass production for these suitable areas is approximately 1.2 million metric tons. The resulting map delineates high topographic relief croplands and provides useful information to land managers and biofuel plant investors to make optimal land use decisions regarding biofuel crop development and ecosystem service optimization in eastern Nebraska.

H2A Biomethane Model Documentation and a Case Study for Biogas From Dairy Farms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saur, G.; Jalalzadeh, A.

2010-12-01

The new H2A Biomethane model was developed to estimate the levelized cost of biomethane by using the framework of the vetted original H2A models for hydrogen production and delivery. For biomethane production, biogas from sources such as dairy farms and landfills is upgraded by a cleanup process. The model also estimates the cost to compress and transport the product gas via the pipeline to export it to the natural gas grid or any other potential end-use site. Inputs include feed biogas composition and cost, required biomethane quality, cleanup equipment capital and operations and maintenance costs, process electricity usage and costs,more » and pipeline delivery specifications.« less

Bacterioplankton in antarctic ocean waters during late austral winter: abundance, frequency of dividing cells, and estimates of production.

PubMed

Hanson, R B; Shafer, D; Ryan, T; Pope, D H; Lowery, H K

1983-05-01

Bacterioplankton productivity in Antarctic waters of the eastern South Pacific Ocean and Drake Passage was estimated by direct counts and frequency of dividing cells (FDC). Total bacterioplankton assemblages were enumerated by epifluorescent microscopy. The experimentally determined relationship between in situ FDC and the potential instantaneous growth rate constant (mu) is best described by the regression equation ln mu = 0.081 FDC - 3.73. In the eastern South Pacific Ocean, bacterioplankton abundance (2 x 10 to 3.5 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (11%) were highest at the Polar Front (Antarctic Convergence). North of the Subantarctic Front, abundance and FDC were between 1 x 10 to 2 x 10 cells per ml and 3 to 5%, respectively, and were vertically homogeneous to a depth of 600 m. In Drake Passage, abundance (10 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (16%) were highest in waters south of the Polar Front and near the sea ice. Subantarctic waters in Drake Passage contained 4 x 10 cells per ml with 4 to 5% FDC. Instantaneous growth rate constants ranged between 0.029 and 0.088 h. Using estimates of potential mu and measured standing stocks, we estimated productivity to range from 0.62 mug of C per liter . day in the eastern South Pacific Ocean to 17.1 mug of C per liter . day in the Drake Passage near the sea ice.

Carbon storage potential increases with increasing ratio of C4 to C3 grass cover and soil productivity in restored tallgrass prairies.

PubMed

Spiesman, Brian J; Kummel, Herika; Jackson, Randall D

2018-02-01

Long-term soil carbon (C) storage is essential for reducing CO 2 in the atmosphere. Converting unproductive and environmentally sensitive agricultural lands to grasslands for bioenergy production may enhance C storage. However, a better understanding of the interacting effects of grass functional composition (i.e., relative abundance of C 4 and C 3 grass cover) and soil productivity on C storage will help guide sustainable grassland management. Our objective was to examine the relationship between grass functional composition and potential C storage and how it varies with potential soil productivity. We estimated C inputs from above- and belowground net primary productivity (ANPP and BNPP), and heterotrophic respiration (R H ) to calculate net ecosystem production (NEP), a measure of potential soil C storage, in grassland plots of relatively high- and low-productivity soils spanning a gradient in the ratio of C 4 to C 3 grass cover (C 4 :C 3 ). NEP increased with increasing C 4 :C 3 , but only in potentially productive soils. The positive relationship likely stemmed from increased ANPP, rather than BNPP, which was possibly related to efficient resource-use and physiological/anatomical advantages of C 4 plants. R H was negatively correlated with C 4 :C 3 , possibly because of changes in microclimate or plant-microbe interactions. It is possible that in potentially productive soils, C storage can be enhanced by favoring C 4 over C 3 grasses through increased ANPP and BNPP and reduced R H . Results also suggest that potential C storage gains from C 4 productivity would not be undermined by a corresponding increase in R H .

LAI-2000 Accuracy, Precision, and Application to Visual Estimation of Leaf Area Index of Loblolly Pine

Treesearch

Jason A. Gatch; Timothy B. Harrington; James P. Castleberry

2002-01-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important parameter of forest stand productivity that has been used to diagnose stand vigor and potential fertilizer response of southern pines. The LAI-2000 was tested for its ability to provide accurate and precise estimates of LAI of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). To test instrument accuracy, regression was used to...

Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

2016-10-01

Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches has the potential to improve the quality of near-real-time rainfall estimates from remote sensing in the near future.

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

2012-01-01

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

Assessment of Moderate- and High-Temperature Geothermal Resources of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Colin F.; Reed, Marshall J.; Mariner, Robert H.; DeAngelo, Jacob; Galanis, S. Peter

2008-01-01

Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an assessment of our Nation's geothermal resources. Geothermal power plants are currently operating in six states: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah. The assessment indicates that the electric power generation potential from identified geothermal systems is 9,057 Megawatts-electric (MWe), distributed over 13 states. The mean estimated power production potential from undiscovered geothermal resources is 30,033 MWe. Additionally, another estimated 517,800 MWe could be generated through implementation of technology for creating geothermal reservoirs in regions characterized by high temperature, but low permeability, rock formations.

Human health risk assessment of chloroxylenol in liquid hand soap and dishwashing soap used by consumers and health-care professionals.

PubMed

Yost, Lisa J; Rodricks, Joseph D; Turnbull, Duncan; DeLeo, Paul C; Nash, J Frank; Quiñones-Rivera, Antonio; Carlson, Pete A

2016-10-01

A quantitative human risk assessment of chloroxylenol was conducted for liquid hand and dishwashing soap products used by consumers and health-care workers. The toxicological data for chloroxylenol indicate lack of genotoxicity, no evidence of carcinogenicity, and minimal systemic toxicity. No observed adverse effect levels (NOAEL) were established from chronic toxicity studies, specifically a carcinogenicity study that found no cancer excess (18 mg/kg-day) and studies of developmental and reproductive toxicity (100 mg/kg-day). Exposure to chloroxylenol for adults and children was estimated for two types of rinse-off cleaning products, one liquid hand soap, and two dishwashing products. The identified NOAELs were used together with exposure estimates to derive margin of exposure (MOE) estimates for chloroxylenol (i.e., estimates of exposure over NOAELs). These estimates were designed with conservative assumptions and likely overestimate exposure and risk (i.e., highest frequency, 100% dermal penetration). The resulting MOEs ranged from 178 to over 100, 000, 000 indicating negligibly small potential for harm related to consumer or health-care worker exposure to chloroxylenol in liquid soaps used in dish washing and hand washing. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of eddy-covariance methods to "calibrate" simple estimators of evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, David M.; Geurink, Jeffrey S.; Swancar, Amy

2017-01-01

Direct measurement of actual evapotranspiration (ET) provides quantification of this large component of the hydrologic budget, but typically requires long periods of record and large instrumentation and labor costs. Simple surrogate methods of estimating ET, if “calibrated” to direct measurements of ET, provide a reliable means to quantify ET. Eddy-covariance measurements of ET were made for 12 years (2004-2015) at an unimproved bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) pasture in Florida. These measurements were compared to annual rainfall derived from rain gage data and monthly potential ET (PET) obtained from a long-term (since 1995) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) statewide, 2-kilometer, daily PET product. The annual proportion of ET to rainfall indicates a strong correlation (r2=0.86) to annual rainfall; the ratio increases linearly with decreasing rainfall. Monthly ET rates correlated closely (r2=0.84) to the USGS PET product. The results indicate that simple surrogate methods of estimating actual ET show positive potential in the humid Florida climate given the ready availability of historical rainfall and PET.

Life Cycle Assessment and Release Studies for 15 Nanosilver-Enabled Consumer Products: Investigating Hotspots and Patterns of Contribution.

PubMed

Pourzahedi, Leila; Vance, Marina; Eckelman, Matthew J

2017-06-20

Increasing use of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in consumer products as antimicrobial agents has prompted extensive research toward the evaluation of their potential release to the environment and subsequent ecotoxicity to aquatic organisms. It has also been shown that AgNPs can pose significant burdens to the environment from life cycle emissions associated with their production, but these impacts must be considered in the context of actual products that contain nanosilver. Here, a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment for the production of 15 different AgNP-enabled consumer products was performed, coupled with release studies of those same products, thus providing a consistent analytical platform for investigation of potential nanosilver impacts across a range of product types and concentrations. Environmental burdens were assessed over multiple impact categories defined by the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI 2.1) method. Depending on the product composition and silver loading, the contribution of AgNP synthesis to the overall impacts was seen to vary over a wide range from 1% to 99%. Release studies found that solid polymeric samples lost more silver during wash compared to fibrous materials. Estimates of direct ecotoxicity impacts of AgNP releases from those products with the highest leaching rates resulted in lower impact levels compared to cradle-to-gate ecotoxicity from production for those products. Considering both cradle-to-gate production impacts and nanoparticle release studies, in conjunction with estimates of life cycle environmental and health benefits of nanoparticle incorporation, can inform sustainable nanoenabled product design.

Estimating yields of unthinned eastern white pine plantations from current stocking in the Southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Todd E. Hepp; John P. Vimmerstedt; Glendon W. Smalley; W. Henry McNab

2015-01-01

Eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.) is a highly productive native conifer of the southern Appalachian Mountains that has long been established in plantations for conventional purposes of afforestation and timber production and potentially for carbon sequestration both within and outside its natural range. Growth-and-yield models are not available, however, for use by...

Transferring site information for black walnut from native woodlands in southeastern Kansas USA to identify sites for agroforestry practices

Treesearch

Wayne A. Geyer; Felix Ponder

2013-01-01

Black walnut (Juglans nigra) is an important tree species for temperate agroforestry in the United States for timber, nuts, wildlife, and abrasives. Predictions of forestland productivity are needed for proper species selection in tree planting. Potential productivity can be estimated for nonforested areas and agricultural croplands by relating site...

Patient-specific Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk for Pediatric Chest CT

PubMed Central

Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0–16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) or dose–length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Results: Organ dose normalized by tube current–time product or CTDIvol decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). Conclusion: The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. © RSNA, 2011 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1 PMID:21467251

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest CT.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M; Colsher, James G; Frush, Donald P

2011-06-01

To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) or dose-length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Organ dose normalized by tube current-time product or CTDI(vol) decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Planck 2015 results. XV. Gravitational lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J. J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J. E.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Reach, W. T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Spencer, L. D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Wehus, I. K.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

2016-09-01

We present the most significant measurement of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential to date (at a level of 40σ), using temperature and polarization data from the Planck 2015 full-mission release. Using a polarization-only estimator, we detect lensing at a significance of 5σ. We cross-check the accuracy of our measurement using the wide frequency coverage and complementarity of the temperature and polarization measurements. Public products based on this measurement include an estimate of the lensing potential over approximately 70% of the sky, an estimate of the lensing potential power spectrum in bandpowers for the multipole range 40 ≤ L ≤ 400, and an associated likelihood for cosmological parameter constraints. We find good agreement between our measurement of the lensing potential power spectrum and that found in the ΛCDM model that best fits the Planck temperature and polarization power spectra. Using the lensing likelihood alone we obtain a percent-level measurement of the parameter combination σ8Ω0.25m = 0.591 ± 0.021. We combine our determination of the lensing potential with the E-mode polarization, also measured by Planck, to generate an estimate of the lensing B-mode. We show that this lensing B-mode estimate is correlated with the B-modes observed directly by Planck at the expected level and with a statistical significance of 10σ, confirming Planck's sensitivity to this known sky signal. We also correlate our lensing potential estimate with the large-scale temperature anisotropies, detecting a cross-correlation at the 3σ level, as expected because of dark energy in the concordance ΛCDM model.

A Modelling Approach to Estimate the Impact of Sodium Reduction in Soups on Cardiovascular Health in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Bruins, Maaike J.; Dötsch-Klerk, Mariska; Matthee, Joep; Kearney, Mary; van Elk, Kathelijn; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

2015-01-01

Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, which could be lowered by reducing dietary sodium. The potential health impact of a product reformulation in the Netherlands was modelled, selecting packaged soups containing on average 25% less sodium as an example of an achievable product reformulation when implemented gradually. First, the blood pressure lowering resulting from sodium intake reduction was modelled. Second, the predicted blood pressure lowering was translated into potentially preventable incidence and mortality cases from stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), angina pectoris, and heart failure (HF) implementing one year salt reduction. Finally, the potentially preventable subsequent lifetime Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were calculated. The sodium reduction in soups might potentially reduce the incidence and mortality of stroke by approximately 0.5%, AMI and angina by 0.3%, and HF by 0.2%. The related burden of disease could be reduced by approximately 800 lifetime DALYs. This modelling approach can be used to provide insight into the potential public health impact of sodium reduction in specific food products. The data demonstrate that an achievable food product reformulation to reduce sodium can potentially benefit public health, albeit modest. When implemented across multiple product categories and countries, a significant health impact could be achieved. PMID:26393647

Estimating the CO2 sequestration potential of depleted and fractured shale formations using CH4 production rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarens, A. F.; Tao, Z.

2013-12-01

Oil and gas production from hydraulically fractured shale formations is an abundant new source of domestically available energy for the United States. It will also result in significant CO2 emissions with important climate implications. Several studies have suggested that fractured shale formations could be used to permanently store CO2 once they are depleted of hydrocarbons. Many of the largest shale formations being developed in the United States have temperature and pressure profiles that are similar to those of saline aquifers being widely studied for geologic carbon sequestration. Here a modeling framework was developed that can be used to estimate the sequestration capacity for a shale formation based on historical CH4 production. The model is applied to those portions of the Marcellus formation found in Pennsylvania because reliable data on well production is readily available for this state. Production data from over 300 wells was compiled and used to estimate historical production and to extrapolate projected production. In shales, much of the CO2 would be sorbed to the pore and fracture surface and so this model considers sorption kinetics as well as total sorption capacity. The results suggest that shale formations could represent a significant repository for geologic carbon sequestration. The Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania alone could store between 10.4 and 18.4 Gigatonnes of CO2 between now and 2030. This would be over 50% of total annual US CO2 emissions from stationary sources. The mass transfer and sorption kinetics results indicate that CO2 injection proceeds several times faster than CH4 production. Model estimates were most sensitive to the permeability of the formation and assumptions about the ultimate ratio of adsorbed CH4 to CO2. CH4 production is a useful basis for calculating sequestration capacity because gas mass transfer out of the formation will be impacted by the same factors (e.g., temperature, pressure, and moisture content) influencing gas injection. The differences between horizontal and non-horizontal wells were taken into account to understand how well structure would influence gas transport kinetics. It was assumed that only the sorbed CO2 would stay in the formation over time. These estimates for sequestration capacity suggest that the approach merits further study to understand the viability of this approach and opportunities to leverage existing infrastructure. Other synergies could exist in terms of monitoring. Related impacts associated with induced seismicity and leakage would need to be explored to understand the full potential of this approach. The sequestration capacity estimated using this model supports continued exploration into this pathway for producing carbon neutral energy.

Graphical user interface for yield and dose estimations for cyclotron-produced technetium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, X.; Vuckovic, M.; Buckley, K.; Bénard, F.; Schaffer, P.; Ruth, T.; Celler, A.

2014-07-01

The cyclotron-based 100Mo(p,2n)99mTc reaction has been proposed as an alternative method for solving the shortage of 99mTc. With this production method, however, even if highly enriched molybdenum is used, various radioactive and stable isotopes will be produced simultaneously with 99mTc. In order to optimize reaction parameters and estimate potential patient doses from radiotracers labeled with cyclotron produced 99mTc, the yields for all reaction products must be estimated. Such calculations, however, are extremely complex and time consuming. Therefore, the objective of this study was to design a graphical user interface (GUI) that would automate these calculations, facilitate analysis of the experimental data, and predict dosimetry. The resulting GUI, named Cyclotron production Yields and Dosimetry (CYD), is based on Matlab®. It has three parts providing (a) reaction yield calculations, (b) predictions of gamma emissions and (c) dosimetry estimations. The paper presents the outline of the GUI, lists the parameters that must be provided by the user, discusses the details of calculations and provides examples of the results. Our initial experience shows that the proposed GUI allows the user to very efficiently calculate the yields of reaction products and analyze gamma spectroscopy data. However, it is expected that the main advantage of this GUI will be at the later clinical stage when entering reaction parameters will allow the user to predict production yields and estimate radiation doses to patients for each particular cyclotron run.

Graphical user interface for yield and dose estimations for cyclotron-produced technetium.

PubMed

Hou, X; Vuckovic, M; Buckley, K; Bénard, F; Schaffer, P; Ruth, T; Celler, A

2014-07-07

The cyclotron-based (100)Mo(p,2n)(99m)Tc reaction has been proposed as an alternative method for solving the shortage of (99m)Tc. With this production method, however, even if highly enriched molybdenum is used, various radioactive and stable isotopes will be produced simultaneously with (99m)Tc. In order to optimize reaction parameters and estimate potential patient doses from radiotracers labeled with cyclotron produced (99m)Tc, the yields for all reaction products must be estimated. Such calculations, however, are extremely complex and time consuming. Therefore, the objective of this study was to design a graphical user interface (GUI) that would automate these calculations, facilitate analysis of the experimental data, and predict dosimetry. The resulting GUI, named Cyclotron production Yields and Dosimetry (CYD), is based on Matlab®. It has three parts providing (a) reaction yield calculations, (b) predictions of gamma emissions and (c) dosimetry estimations. The paper presents the outline of the GUI, lists the parameters that must be provided by the user, discusses the details of calculations and provides examples of the results. Our initial experience shows that the proposed GUI allows the user to very efficiently calculate the yields of reaction products and analyze gamma spectroscopy data. However, it is expected that the main advantage of this GUI will be at the later clinical stage when entering reaction parameters will allow the user to predict production yields and estimate radiation doses to patients for each particular cyclotron run.

An economic analysis of the electricity generation potential from biogas resources in the state of Indiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giraldo, Juan S.

Anaerobic digestion is a process that is a common part of organic waste management systems and is used in concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. The process produces biogas, which contains methane, and it can be burned to generate electricity. Previous reports have indicated that based on the availability of feedstocks there is a large potential for biogas production and use for electricity generation in the state of Indiana. However, these reports varied in their consideration of important factors that affect the technical and economic feasibility of being able to develop the resources available. The goal of this thesis is to make a more targeted assessment of the electricity generation potential from biogas resources at CAFOs, WWTPs, and MSW landfills in Indiana. A capital budgeting model is used to estimate the net present value (NPV) of biogas electricity projects at facilities that are identified as technically suitable. A statewide estimate of the potential generation capacity is made by estimating the number of facilities that could profitably undertake a biogas electricity project. In addition this thesis explored the impact that different incentive policies would have on the economic viability of these projects. The results indicated that the electricity generation potential is much smaller when technical and economic factors are taken into account in addition to feedstock availability. In particular it was found that projects at hog farms are unlikely to be economically feasible in the present even when financial incentives are considered. In total, 47.94 MW of potential generating capacity is estimated from biogas production at CAFOs, WWTPs, and MSW landfills. Though results indicated that 37.10 MW of capacity are economically feasible under current operating conditions, sensitivity analysis reveals that these projects are very sensitive to capital cost assumptions and incentives are likely needed to encourage investment.

Generating an agricultural risk map based on limited ecological information: A case study using Sicyos angulatus.

PubMed

Osawa, Takeshi; Okawa, Shigenori; Kurokawa, Shunji; Ando, Shinichiro

2016-12-01

In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the "risk" as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case study, we estimated the risk imposed by an invasive weed, Sicyos angulatus, based on simple cellular simulations and governmental data on the area of crop that could potentially be damaged in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Simulation results revealed that the current distribution range was sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. Using these results and records of crop areas, we present risk maps for S. angulatus in agricultural fields. Managers will be able to use these maps to rapidly establish a management plan with minimal cost. Our approach will be valuable for establishing a management plan before or during the early stages of invasion.

Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

PubMed

Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

2013-03-01

Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linking FRRF Derived Photophysiology with Carbon-based Primary Productivity: Insights from Concepts of Cellular Energy Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuback, N.; Schallenberg, C.; Duckham, C.; Flecken, M.; Maldonado, M. T.; Tortell, P. D.

2016-02-01

Active chlorophyll a fluorescence approaches, including fast repetition rate fluorometry (FRRF), have the potential to provide estimates of phytoplankton primary productivity at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. FRRF-derived productivity rates are based on estimates of charge separation in photosystem II (ETRRCII), which must be converted into ecologically relevant units of carbon fixation. Understanding sources of variability in the coupling of ETRRCII and carbon fixation provides important physiological insight into phytoplankton photosynthesis, and is critical for the application of FRRF as a primary productivity measurement tool. We present data from a series of experiments during which we simultaneously measured phytoplankton carbon fixation and ETRRCII in the iron-limited NE subarctic Pacific. Our results show significant variability of the derived conversion factor (Ve:C/nPSII), with highest values observed under conditions of excess excitation pressure at the level of photosystem II, caused by high light and/or low iron. Our results will be discussed in the context of metabolic plasticity, which evolved in phytoplankton to simultaneously maximize growth and provide photoprotection under fluctuating light and limiting nutrient availabilities. Because the derived conversion factor is associated with conditions of excess light, it correlates with the expression of non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in the pigment antenna, also derived from FRRF measurements. Our results demonstrate a significant correlation between NPQ and the conversion factor Ve:C/nPSII, and the potential of this relationship to improve FRRF-based estimates of phytoplankton carbon fixation rates is discussed.

In silico screening for candidate chassis strains of free fatty acid-producing cyanobacteria.

PubMed

Motwalli, Olaa; Essack, Magbubah; Jankovic, Boris R; Ji, Boyang; Liu, Xinyao; Ansari, Hifzur Rahman; Hoehndorf, Robert; Gao, Xin; Arold, Stefan T; Mineta, Katsuhiko; Archer, John A C; Gojobori, Takashi; Mijakovic, Ivan; Bajic, Vladimir B

2017-01-05

Finding a source from which high-energy-density biofuels can be derived at an industrial scale has become an urgent challenge for renewable energy production. Some microorganisms can produce free fatty acids (FFA) as precursors towards such high-energy-density biofuels. In particular, photosynthetic cyanobacteria are capable of directly converting carbon dioxide into FFA. However, current engineered strains need several rounds of engineering to reach the level of production of FFA to be commercially viable; thus new chassis strains that require less engineering are needed. Although more than 120 cyanobacterial genomes are sequenced, the natural potential of these strains for FFA production and excretion has not been systematically estimated. Here we present the FFA SC (FFASC), an in silico screening method that evaluates the potential for FFA production and excretion of cyanobacterial strains based on their proteomes. A literature search allowed for the compilation of 64 proteins, most of which influence FFA production and a few of which affect FFA excretion. The proteins are classified into 49 orthologous groups (OGs) that helped create rules used in the scoring/ranking of algorithms developed to estimate the potential for FFA production and excretion of an organism. Among 125 cyanobacterial strains, FFASC identified 20 candidate chassis strains that rank in their FFA producing and excreting potential above the specifically engineered reference strain, Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002. We further show that the top ranked cyanobacterial strains are unicellular and primarily include Prochlorococcus (order Prochlorales) and marine Synechococcus (order Chroococcales) that cluster phylogenetically. Moreover, two principal categories of enzymes were shown to influence FFA production the most: those ensuring precursor availability for the biosynthesis of lipids, and those involved in handling the oxidative stress associated to FFA synthesis. To our knowledge FFASC is the first in silico method to screen cyanobacteria proteomes for their potential to produce and excrete FFA, as well as the first attempt to parameterize the criteria derived from genetic characteristics that are favorable/non-favorable for this purpose. Thus, FFASC helps focus experimental evaluation only on the most promising cyanobacteria.

Potential for polyhydroxyalkanoate production on German or European municipal waste water treatment plants.

PubMed

Pittmann, T; Steinmetz, H

2016-08-01

Biopolymers, which are made of renewable raw materials and/or biodegradable residual materials present a possible alternative to common plastic. A potential analysis, based on experimental results in laboratory scale and detailed data from German waste water treatment plants, showed that the theoretically possible production of biopolymers in Germany amounts to more than 20% of the 2015 worldwide biopolymer production. In addition a profound estimation regarding all European Union member states showed that theoretically about 115% of the actual worldwide biopolymer production could be produced on European waste water treatment plants. With an upgraded biopolymer production and a theoretically reachable biopolymer proportion of around 60% of the cell dry weight a total of 1,794,656tPHAa or approximately 236% of today's biopolymer production could be produced on waste water treatment plants in the European Union, using primary sludge as raw material only. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward production from gas hydrates: Current status, assessment of resources, and simulation-based evaluation of technology and potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Boswell, R.; Kurihara, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Koh, C.; Sloan, E.D.

2009-01-01

Gas hydrates (GHs) are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural GH accumulations, the status of the primary international research and development (R&D) programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing the commercialization of production. After a brief examination of GH accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate-production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical-simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps either are not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of GH deposits and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates across long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets; (b) methods to maximize production; and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain GH deposits undesirable for production. Copyright ?? 2009 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Toward production from gas hydrates: Current status, assessment of resources, and simulation-based evaluation of technology and potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Boswell, R.; Kurihara, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Koh, C.; Sloan, E.D.

2008-01-01

Gas hydrates are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural gas hydrate accumulations, the status of the primary international R&D programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing commercialization of production. After a brief examination of gas hydrate accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps are either not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of gas hydrate deposits, and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates over long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets, (b) methods to maximize production, and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain gas hydrate deposits undesirable for production. Copyright 2008, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

The Program Cost of a Brief Video Intervention Shown in Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic Waiting Rooms.

PubMed

Gift, Thomas L; OʼDonnell, Lydia N; Rietmeijer, Cornelis A; Malotte, Kevin C; Klausner, Jeffrey D; Margolis, Andrew D; Borkowf, Craig B; Kent, Charlotte K; Warner, Lee

2016-01-01

Patients in sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic waiting rooms represent a potential audience for delivering health messages via video-based interventions. A controlled trial at 3 sites found that patients exposed to one intervention, Safe in the City, had a significantly lower incidence of STDs compared with patients in the control condition. An evaluation of the intervention's cost could help determine whether such interventions are programmatically viable. The cost of producing the Safe in the City intervention was estimated using study records, including logs, calendars, and contract invoices. Production costs were divided by the 1650 digital video kits initially fabricated to get an estimated cost per digital video. Clinic costs for showing the video in waiting rooms included staff time costs for equipment operation and hardware depreciation and were estimated for the 21-month study observation period retrospectively. The intervention cost an estimated $416,966 to develop, equaling $253 per digital video disk produced. Per-site costs to show the video intervention were estimated to be $2699 during the randomized trial. The cost of producing and implementing Safe in the City intervention suggests that similar interventions could potentially be produced and made available to end users at a price that would both cover production costs and be low enough that the end users could afford them.

Evaluation of Land Suitability and Potential Production of Gambir Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) at Salido Saribulan, Pesisir Selatan Regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuni, Juniarti

2017-04-01

Gambir (Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) is a specific commodity of export in West Sumatra. Area of Gambir tree increases about 8 % per year in West Sumatera and until 1998 its production increased about 17% per year. However, in 1999 its area does not parallel with its production. In the last five years, the volume of export increases about 82.81%, while its value of export reaches US 2.5/kg. Therefore, this commodity has a strategic value for city's earnings. One of predicted causes is the use of unappropriated land. The aim of this research is to measure levels of land suitability in the buffer zone. TNKS (The National Park Kerinci-Seblat) in order to get the area, which is suitable for growing commodity of Gambir tree. To evaluate land suitability, quantitative model from FAO is used by combining environmental data, climate and condition of land (physical and chemical characteristic of the land). Estimation of Radiation Thermal Production Potential (RPP). Every data is measured (rating) individually and included in several mathematical formulas. After that, potential production of a land based on climate (Climate Production Potential) = CPP) is obtained quantitatively. By changing certain variant of this model program, it can predict the result of the plant in another area. By entering the real data of a land plant production, this model can predict the real plant production of land (Land Production Potential= LPP). Salido Saribulan area is included in class of land suitability S3f which is suitable for growing Gambir tree with a limitation factor of nutrient retention. Potential of actual gambir production at Salido Saribulan is 5 ton/ha, which is higher than actual gambir production.

Health impact assessment of a skin sensitizer: Analysis of potential policy measures aimed at reducing geraniol concentrations in personal care products and household cleaning products.

PubMed

Jongeneel, W P; Delmaar, J E; Bokkers, B G H

2018-06-08

A methodology to assess the health impact of skin sensitizers is introduced, which consists of the comparison of the probabilistic aggregated exposure with a probabilistic (individual) human sensitization or elicitation induction dose. The health impact of potential policy measures aimed at reducing the concentration of a fragrance allergen, geraniol, in consumer products is analysed in a simulated population derived from multiple product use surveys. Our analysis shows that current dermal exposure to geraniol from personal care and household cleaning products lead to new cases of contact allergy and induce clinical symptoms for those already sensitized. We estimate that this exposure results yearly in 34 new cases of geraniol contact allergy per million consumers in Western and Northern Europe, mainly due to exposure to household cleaning products. About twice as many consumers (60 per million) are projected to suffer from clinical symptoms due to re-exposure to geraniol. Policy measures restricting geraniol concentrations to <0.01% will noticeably reduce new cases of sensitization and decrease the number of people with clinical symptoms as well as the frequency of occurrence of these clinical symptoms. The estimated numbers should be interpreted with caution and provide only a rough indication of the health impact. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Work productivity loss from depression: evidence from an employer survey.

PubMed

Rost, Kathryn M; Meng, Hongdao; Xu, Stanley

2014-12-18

National working groups identify the need for return on investment research conducted from the purchaser perspective; however, the field has not developed standardized methods for measuring the basic components of return on investment, including costing out the value of work productivity loss due to illness. Recent literature is divided on whether the most commonly used method underestimates or overestimates this loss. The goal of this manuscript is to characterize between and within variation in the cost of work productivity loss from illness estimated by the most commonly used method and its two refinements. One senior health benefit specialist from each of 325 companies employing 100+ workers completed a cross-sectional survey describing their company size, industry and policies/practices regarding work loss which allowed the research team to derive the variables needed to estimate work productivity loss from illness using three methods. Compensation estimates were derived by multiplying lost work hours from presenteeism and absenteeism by wage/fringe. Disruption correction adjusted this estimate to account for co-worker disruption, while friction correction accounted for labor substitution. The analysis compared bootstrapped means and medians between and within these three methods. The average company realized an annual $617 (SD = $75) per capita loss from depression by compensation methods and a $649 (SD = $78) loss by disruption correction, compared to a $316 (SD = $58) loss by friction correction (p < .0001). Agreement across estimates was 0.92 (95% CI 0.90, 0.93). Although the methods identify similar companies with high costs from lost productivity, friction correction reduces the size of compensation estimates of productivity loss by one half. In analyzing the potential consequences of method selection for the dissemination of interventions to employers, intervention developers are encouraged to include friction methods in their estimate of the economic value of interventions designed to improve absenteeism and presenteeism. Business leaders in industries where labor substitution is common are encouraged to seek friction corrected estimates of return on investment. Health policy analysts are encouraged to target the dissemination of productivity enhancing interventions to employers with high losses rather than all employers. NCT01013220.

Influence of Mesoscale Eddies on New Production in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, D. J., Jr.; Robinson, A. R.; Siegel, D. A.; Jannasch, H. W.; Johnson, R.; Dickey, T. D.; McNeil, J.; Michaels, A. F.; Knap, A. H.

1998-01-01

It is problematic that geochemical estimates of new production, that fraction of total primary production in surface waters fueled by externally supplied nutrients, in oligotrophic waters of the open ocean surpass that which can be sustained by the traditionally accepted mechanisms of nutrient supply. In the cam of the Sargasso Sea, for example, these mechanisms account for less than half of the annual nutrient requirement indicated by new production estimates based on three independent transient-tracer techniques. Specifically, approximately one-quarter to one-third of the annual nutrient requirement can be supplied by entrainment into the mixed layer during wintertime convection, with minor contributions from mixing in the thermocline and wind-driven transport (the potentially important role of nitrogen fixation- for which estimates vary by an order of magnitude in this region- is excluded from this budget). Here we present four lines of evidence-eddy-resolving model simulations, high-resolution observations from moored instrumentation, shipboard surveys and satellite data-which suggest that the vertical flux of nutrients induced by the dynamics of mesoscale eddies is sufficient to balance the nutrient budget in the Sargasso Sea.

Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine—regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deppermann, Andre; Balkovič, Juraj; Bundle, Sophie-Charlotte; Di Fulvio, Fulvio; Havlik, Petr; Leclère, David; Lesiv, Myroslava; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

2018-02-01

Russia and Ukraine are countries with relatively large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and substantial yield gaps. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of Russian and Ukrainian crop production potentials and we analyze possible impacts of their future utilization, on a regional as well as global scale. To this end, the total amount of available abandoned land and potential yields in Russia and Ukraine are estimated and explicitly implemented in an economic agricultural sector model. We find that cereal (barley, corn, and wheat) production in Russia and Ukraine could increase by up to 64% in 2030 to 267 million tons, compared to a baseline scenario. Oilseeds (rapeseed, soybean, and sunflower) production could increase by 84% to 50 million tons, respectively. In comparison to the baseline, common net exports of Ukraine and Russia could increase by up to 86.3 million tons of cereals and 18.9 million tons of oilseeds in 2030, representing 4% and 3.6% of the global production of these crops, respectively. Furthermore, we find that production potentials due to intensification are ten times larger than potentials due to recultivation of abandoned land. Consequently, we also find stronger impacts from intensification at the global scale. A utilization of crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine could globally save up to 21 million hectares of cropland and reduce average global crop prices by more than 3%.

Summary of the reconnaissance investigation of the diamond resource potential and production capacity of Côte d’Ivoire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.

2012-01-01

This study presents the results of a multiyear effort to monitor the diamond mining activities of Côte d’Ivoire’s two main diamond regions, Séguéla and Tortiya. The innovative approach developed for this study integrates archival reports and maps, high-resolution satellite imagery, and terrain modeling to assess the diamond resource potential and production capacity of the Séguéla and Tortiya deposits. A geologic resource assessment was conducted to calculate the remaining diamond reserves for Séguéla and Tortiya using archival geologic data, including gravel grade and thickness recorded by the Ivorian mining company Société pour le Développement Minier (SODEMI). These data were combined with terrain analysis and geomorphological maps in a geological process-driven model. After accounting for previous production, a total of 10,100,000 carats are estimated to be remaining in Séguéla and a total of 1,100,000 carats are estimated to be remaining in Tortiya, based on currently known deposits.

[Cytotoxicity of chemicals used in household products: estimation of eye irritating potency of 25 chemicals tested during 1991-1996].

PubMed

Ikarashi, Y; Tsuchiya, T; Nakamura, A

1997-01-01

Cytotoxicity potential of chemicals was evaluated by determining the concentrations inducing 50% reduction of neutral red (NR) uptake into Chinese hamster fibroblast V79 cells compared with control culture (IC50). The results of cytotoxicity test for surfactants with the data produced by the in vivo Draize eye and skin irritation test were compared. There was a good correlation between cytotoxicity and eye irritation score obtained from the Draize test. In contrast, no correlation was observed between Draize skin irritation score and cytotoxic potential of chemicals. Therefore, the NR cytotoxicity test was regarded as a possible in vitro model for predicting eye irritation. Based on the IC50 values in the NR cytotoxicity test, the eye irritation classification (weak, moderate and strong) for each chemical used in household products has been established. We evaluated the cytotoxicity of 25 chemicals used for antimicrobial, rubber accelerator, rubber antioxidant, ultraviolet absorber etc. in household products, and estimated the eye irritating potency of these test chemicals according to the criterion.

An overview of the functional food market: from marketing issues and commercial players to future demand from life in space.

PubMed

Vergari, Francesca; Tibuzzi, Arianna; Basile, Giovanni

2010-01-01

Companies in the food industry have high expectations for food products that meet the consumers' demand for a healthy life style. In this context Functional Food plays a specific role. These foods are not intended only to satisfy hunger and provide the necessary human nutrients, but also to prevent nutrition-related diseases and increase the physical and mental well-being of their consumer. Among participants in space science and missions, recognition of nutraceuticals and dietary supplements is growing for their potential in reducing health risks and to improve health quality and eating habits during long-term flights and missions. In 2008 the entire functional foods market was worth over an estimated US $80 billion, with the US holding a majority share in the nutraceuticals market (35%) followed byJapan (25%) and with the ever-growing European market, currently estimated at US$8 billion. India and China are the two major countries known for their production of traditional functional food products and nutraceuticals, but other South-East Asian countries and Gulf nations are developing potential markets.

Potential gains in storage on productive forestlands in the northeastern United Sates through stocking management

Treesearch

Coeli Hoover; Linda S. Heath

2011-01-01

One method of increasing forest carbon stocks that is often discussed is increasing stocking levels on existing forested lands. However, estimates of the potential increases in forest carbon sequestration as a result of increased stocking levels are not readily available. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data coupled with the Forest...

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals

PubMed Central

Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Levin, Simon A.; Robinson, Timothy P.; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-01-01

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg−1, 148 mg⋅kg−1, and 172 mg⋅kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health. PMID:25792457

Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals.

PubMed

Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Brower, Charles; Gilbert, Marius; Grenfell, Bryan T; Levin, Simon A; Robinson, Timothy P; Teillant, Aude; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

2015-05-05

Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg(-1), 148 mg⋅kg(-1), and 172 mg⋅kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.

Global climatology and variability of potential new production estimated from remote sensing of sea-surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.

1995-01-01

During this project we have collected numerous shipboard data-bases of oceanic nitrate and silicate versus temperature for both equatorial and coastal upwelling regions. These cruises all have accompanying N-15 measurements of new production. The inverse relationships between nutrients and temperatures have been determined and are being used to obtain surface nutrient fields from sea surface temperatures measured remotely by satellite borne sensors- i.e. AVHRR data from NOAA satellites contained in the MCSST data set for the world ocean provided by the University of Miami. The images and data derived from space in this way show the strong seasonal fluctuations and interannual el Nino fluctuations of the nitrate field. the nitrate data has been used to make estimates of new production for the equatorial pacific which are compared with shipboard measurements when available. The importance of silicate as a nutrient driving new production and the ratio of nitrate to silicate has been discovered to be crucial to better understand the causes of new production variability, so we have added these parameters to our study and have begun to make estimates of these for the equatorial Pacific, derived from the weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

Potential commercial uses of EOS remote sensing products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Leslie L.

1991-01-01

The instrument complement of the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite system will generate data sets with potential interest to a variety of users who are now just beginning to develop geographic information systems tailored to their special applications and/or jurisdictions. Other users may be looking for a unique product that enhances competitive position. The generally distributed products from EOS will require additional value added processing to derive the unique products desired by specific users. Entrepreneurs have an opportunity to create these proprietary level 4 products from the EOS data sets. Specific instruments or collections of instruments could provide information for crop futures trading, mineral exploration, television and printed medium news products, regional and local government land management and planning, digital map directories, products for third world users, ocean fishing fleet probability of harvest forecasts, and other areas not even imagined at this time. The projected level 3 product are examined that will be available at launch from EOS instruments and commercial uses of the data after value added processing is estimated.

Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

2017-06-01

Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

A Study toward the Evaluation of ALOS Images for LAI Estimation in Rice Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi Hashjin, Sh.; Darvishzadeh, R.; Khandan, R.

2013-10-01

For expanding and managing agricultural sources, satellite data have a key role in determining required information about different factors in plants Including Leaf Area Index (LAI).This paper has studied the potential of spectral indices in estimating rice canopy LAI in Amol city as one of the main sources of rice production in Iran. Due to its importance in provision of food and calorie of a major portion of population, rice product was chosen for study. A field campaign was conducted when rice was in the max growth stage (late of June). Also, two satellite images from ALOS-AVNIR-2 were used (simultaneous with conducted field works) to extract and determine vegetation indices. Then the Regression between measured data and vegetation indices, derived from combination of different bands, was evaluated and after that suitable vegetation indices were realized. Finally, statistics and calculations for introduction of a suitable model were presented. After examination of models, the results showed that RDVI and SAVI2, by determination coefficient and RMSE of 0.12-0.59 and 0.24-0.62, have more accuracy in LAI estimation. Results of present study demonstrated the potential of ALOS images, for LAI estimation and their significant role in monitoring and managing the rice plant.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001–2020

PubMed Central

Clark, Samantha; Portnoy, Allison; Grewal, Simrun; Stack, Meghan L; Sinha, Anushua; Mirelman, Andrew; Franklin, Heather; Friberg, Ingrid K; Tam, Yvonne; Walker, Neff; Clark, Andrew; Ferrari, Matthew; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Sweet, Steven; Goldie, Sue J; Garske, Tini; Li, Michelle; Hansen, Peter M; Johnson, Hope L; Walker, Damian

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Methods We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs – expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) – of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. Findings We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. Conclusion By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world’s poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health. PMID:28867843

Opportunities for increasing natural gas production in the near term. Volume VI. The East Cameron Block 271 Field. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-02-01

This report examines the potential for increasing the rate of production of natural gas from the East Cameron Block 271 Field in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf. Proved reserves are estimated using all available reservoir data, including well logs and pressure tests, and cost parameters typical in the area. Alternative schedules for future production are devised, and net present values calculated from which the maximum production rate that also maximizes net present value is determined.

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.; Johnson, Kristen

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO 2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals. Most analyses in volume 2 show potential for a substantial increase in biomass production with minimal or negligible environmental effects under the biomass supply constraints assumed in BT16. Although corn ethanol has been shown to achieve GHG emissions improvements over fossil fuels, cellulosic biomass shows further improvements in certain environmental indicators covered in this report. The harvest of agricultural and forestry residues generally shows the smallest contributions to changes in certain environmental indicators investigated. The scenarios show national-level net SOC gains. When expanding the system boundary in illustrative cases that consider biomass end use, reductions in GHG emissions are estimated for scenarios in which biomass—rather than oil, coal, and natural gas—is used to produce fuel, power, heat, and chemicals. Analyses of water quality reveal that there could be tradeoffs between biomass productivity and some water quality indicators, but better outcomes for both biomass productivity and water quality can be achieved with selected conservation practices. Biodiversity analyses show possible habitat benefits to some species, with other species showing potential adverse effects that may require additional safeguards. Increasing productivity of algae can reduce GHG emissions and water consumption associated with producing algal biomass, though the effects of water consumption are likely of greater concern in some regions than in others. Moreover, the effects of climate change on potential biomass production show gains and losses in yield among feedstocks across the continental United States. Key research gaps and priorities include actions that can enhance benefits and reduce potential for negative effects of increased biomass production. The results from this report will help DOE, the bioenergy industry, and other institutions continue important discussions on environmental effects and will help chart a path toward a more environmentally sustainable bioeconomy.« less

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

PubMed Central

Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K.

2011-01-01

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO2 on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y−1, depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply. PMID:22211004

Where’s the beef? Predicting the effects of climate change on cattle production in western U.S. rangelands

Treesearch

Sue Miller; Matt Reeves; Karen Bagne; John Tanaka

2017-01-01

Cattle production capacity on western rangelands is potentially vulnerable to climate change through impacts on the amount of forage, changes in vegetation type, heat stress, and year-to-year forage variability. The researchers in this study projected climate change effects to rangelands through 2100 and compared them to a present-day baseline to estimate vulnerability...

Characterization and potential recycling of home building wood waste

Treesearch

Philip A. Araman; D.P. Hindman; M.F. Winn

2010-01-01

Construction waste represents a significant portion of landfill waste, estimated as 17% of the total waste stream. Wood construction waste of a 2000 square foot single family home we found to be 1500-3700 lbs of solid-sawn wood, and 1000-1800 lbs of engineered wood products (EWP). Much of the solid-sawn lumber and EWPs could be recycled into several products. Through a...

Intercomparison of Fire Size, Fuel Loading, Fuel Consumption, and Smoke Emissions Estimates on the 2006 Tripod Fire, Washington, USA

Treesearch

Stacy A. Drury; Narasimhan Larkin; Tara T. Strand; ShihMing Huang; Scott J. Strenfel; Theresa E. O' Brien; Sean M. Raffuse

2014-01-01

Land managers rely on prescribed burning and naturally ignited wildfires for ecosystem management, and must balance trade-offs of air quality, carbon storage, and ecosystem health. A current challenge for land managers when using fire for ecosystem management is managing smoke production. Smoke emissions are a potential human health hazard due to the production of fine...

Production rates for United States Forest Service brush disposal planning in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Dan Loeffler; Stu Hoyt; Nathaniel Anderson

2017-01-01

Timber harvesting operations generate brush and other vegetative debris, which often has no marketable value. In many western U.S. forests, these materials represent a fire hazard and a potential threat to forest health and must be removed or burned for disposal. Currently, there is no established, consistent method to estimate brush disposal production rates in the U....

Comparison of modeling approaches for carbon partitioning: Impact on estimates of global net primary production and equilibrium biomass of woody vegetation from MODIS GPP

Treesearch

Takeshi Ise; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Akihiko Ito

2010-01-01

Partitioning of gross primary production (GPP) to aboveground versus belowground, to growth versus respiration, and to short versus long�]lived tissues exerts a strong influence on ecosystem structure and function, with potentially large implications for the global carbon budget. A recent meta-analysis of forest ecosystems suggests that carbon partitioning...

Experimental Validation of a Forward Looking Interferometer for Detection of Clear Air Turbulence due to Mountain Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffner, Philip R.; Daniels, Taumi S.; West, Leanne L.; Gimmestad, Gary G.; Lane, Sarah E.; Burdette, Edward M.; Smith, William L.; Kireev, Stanislav; Cornman, Larry; Sharman, Robert D.

2012-01-01

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is an airborne sensor concept for detection and estimation of potential atmospheric hazards to aircraft. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometry technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing. The FLI is being evaluated for its potential to address multiple hazards, during all phases of flight, including clear air turbulence, volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing. In addition, the FLI is being evaluated for its potential to detect hazardous runway conditions during landing, such as wet or icy asphalt or concrete. The validation of model-based instrument and hazard simulation results is accomplished by comparing predicted performance against empirical data. In the mountain lee wave data collected in the previous FLI project, the data showed a damped, periodic mountain wave structure. The wave data itself will be of use in forecast and nowcast turbulence products such as the Graphical Turbulence Guidance and Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast products. Determining how turbulence hazard estimates can be derived from FLI measurements will require further investigation.

Bacterial Populations Associated with Smokeless Tobacco Products

PubMed Central

Han, Jing; Sanad, Yasser M.; Deck, Joanna; Sutherland, John B.; Li, Zhong; Walters, Matthew J.; Duran, Norma; Holman, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT There are an estimated 8 million users of smokeless tobacco products (STPs) in the United States, and yet limited data on microbial populations within these products exist. To better understand the potential microbiological risks associated with STP use, a study was conducted to provide a baseline microbiological profile of STPs. A total of 90 samples, representing 15 common STPs, were purchased in metropolitan areas in Little Rock, AR, and Washington, DC, in November 2012, March 2013, and July 2013. Bacterial populations were evaluated using culture, pyrosequencing, and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Moist-snuff products exhibited higher levels of bacteria (average of 1.05 × 106 CFU/g STP) and diversity of bacterial populations than snus (average of 8.33 × 101 CFU/g STP) and some chewing tobacco products (average of 2.54 × 105 CFU/g STP). The most common species identified by culturing were Bacillus pumilus, B. licheniformis, B. safensis, and B. subtilis, followed by members of the genera Oceanobacillus, Staphylococcus, and Tetragenococcus. Pyrosequencing analyses of the 16S rRNA genes identified the genera Tetragenococcus, Carnobacterium, Lactobacillus, Geobacillus, Bacillus, and Staphylococcus as the predominant taxa. Several species identified are of possible concern due to their potential to cause opportunistic infections and reported abilities to reduce nitrates to nitrites, which may be an important step in the formation of carcinogenic tobacco-specific N′-nitrosamines. This report provides a microbiological baseline to help fill knowledge gaps associated with microbiological risks of STPs and to inform potential regulations regarding manufacture and testing of STPs. IMPORTANCE It is estimated that there 8 million users of smokeless tobacco products (STPs) in the United States; however, there are limited data on microbial populations that exist within these products. The current study was undertaken to better understand the potential microbiological risks associated with STP use and provide a baseline microbiological profile of STPs. Several bacterial species were identified that are of possible concern due to their potential to cause opportunistic infections. In addition, some species have abilities to reduce nitrates to nitrites, which may be an important step in the formation of carcinogenic tobacco-specific N′-nitrosamines. Overall, this report provides a microbiological baseline to help fill knowledge gaps related to the microbiological risks of STPs and to inform potential regulations regarding the manufacture and testing of STPs. PMID:27565615

Pharmacologic treatments for dry eye: a worthwhile investment?

PubMed

Novack, Gary D

2002-01-01

To determine whether investment in a novel pharmacologic agent for the treatment of dry eye would be worthwhile from a financial perspective. Estimates were made of the cost and time required to develop a novel pharmacologic treatment of dry eye and the potential revenues for the product. These estimates were used to compute the value of the investment, adjusting for the time value of money. Development was estimated to cost $42 million and to take 55 months from investigational new drug exemption filing to new drug application approval. The potential market for this treatment was estimated at $542 million per year at year 5. Adding in the cost of development and marketing as well as other costs, net present value was very positive at the 5, 8, 10, and 40% cost of financing. The internal rate of return was 90%. In summary, if there were a successful pharmacologic treatment of dry eye and if a firm could manage the cash flow during the development, then the market potential approaches that of other treatment of chronic ophthalmic conditions (e.g., glaucoma), and it would be a worthwhile investment.

Labour productivity losses caused by premature death associated with hepatitis C in Spain

PubMed Central

Oliva-Moreno, Juan; Peña-Longobardo, Luz M.; Alonso, Sonia; Fernández-Bolaños, Antonio; Gutiérrez, María Luisa; Hidalgo-Vega, Álvaro; de la Fuente, Elsa

2015-01-01

Background and aims Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection places a huge burden on healthcare systems. There is no study assessing the impact of HCV infection on premature deaths in Spain. The aim of this study was to estimate productivity losses because of premature deaths attributable to hepatitis C occurring in Spain during 2007–2011. Materials and methods We use data from several sources (Registry of Deaths, Labour Force Survey and Wage Structure Survey) to develop a simulation model based on the human capital approach and to estimate the flows in labour productivity losses in the period considered. The attributable fraction method was used to estimate the numbers of deaths associated with HCV infection. Two sensitivity analyses were developed to test the robustness of the results. Results Our model shows total productivity losses attributable to HCV infection of 1054.7 million euros over the period analysed. The trend in productivity losses is decreasing over the period. This result is because of improvements in health outcomes, reflected in the reduction of the number of years of potential productive life lost. Of the total estimated losses, 18.6% were because of hepatitis C, 24.6% because of hepatocellular carcinoma, 30.1% because of cirrhosis, 15.9% because of other liver diseases and 10.7% because of HIV–HCV coinfection. Conclusion The results show that premature mortality attributable to hepatitis C involves significant productivity losses. This highlights the need to extend the analysis to consider other social costs and obtain a more complete picture of the actual economic impact of hepatitis C infection. PMID:25853930

A batch assay to measure microbial hydrogen sulfide production from sulfur-containing solid wastes.

PubMed

Sun, Mei; Sun, Wenjie; Barlaz, Morton A

2016-05-01

Large volumes of sulfur-containing wastes enter municipal solid waste landfills each year. Under the anaerobic conditions that prevail in landfills, oxidized forms of sulfur, primarily sulfate, are converted to sulfide. Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) is corrosive to landfill gas collection and treatment systems, and its presence in landfill gas often necessitates the installation of expensive removal systems. For landfill operators to understand the cost of managing sulfur-containing wastes, an estimate of the H2S production potential is needed. The objective of this study was to develop and demonstrate a biochemical sulfide potential (BSP) test to measure the amount of H2S produced by different types of sulfur-containing wastes in a relatively fast (30days) and inexpensive (125mL serum bottles) batch assay. This study confirmed the toxic effect of H2S on both sulfate reduction and methane production in batch systems, and demonstrated that removing accumulated H2S by base adsorption was effective for mitigating inhibition. H2S production potentials of coal combustion fly ash, flue gas desulfurization residual, municipal solid waste combustion ash, and construction and demolition waste were determined in BSP assays. After 30days of incubation, most of the sulfate in the wastes was converted to gaseous or aqueous phase sulfide, with BSPs ranging from 0.8 to 58.8mLH2S/g waste, depending on the chemical composition of the samples. Selected samples contained solid phase sulfide which contributed to the measured H2S yield. A 60day incubation in selected samples resulted in 39-86% additional sulfide production. H2S production measured in BSP assays was compared with that measured in simulated landfill reactors and that calculated from chemical analyses. H2S production in BSP assays and in reactors was lower than the stoichiometric values calculated from chemical composition for all wastes tested, demonstrating the importance of assays to estimate the microbial sulfide production potential of sulfur-containing wastes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Treated Wastewater's Potential for Improving Water and Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dare, A. E.

2014-12-01

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) contains just 1% of the world's freshwater; however, even in the very arid countries of the Gulf region, high quality treated wastewater rarely sees a productive use. As countries deal with growing populations and strive for increased food security, freshwater alone cannot be relied upon to meet these demands. This research identifies best practices from the MENA for reusing treated wastewater in agricultural production, and calculates the potential of treated wastewater for increasing food production in select countries. Drawing upon both published and original treated wastewater quality data for locations in the MENA, the annual volume of treated wastewater produced, and crop water demands, estimates for potential crop production from treated wastewater are calculated. The volume of wastewater treated annually is equivalent to 10-40% of agricultural withdrawals in most MENA countries. Irrigation by treated wastewater has significant potential to impact water and food security by reducing agricultural water withdrawals and increasing domestic food production. Such initiatives require application of best management practices, such as transparent monitoring and evaluation of reuse projects for public and environmental health risks, and support from both farmers and policy makers.

Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children's potential exposures.

PubMed

Tulve, Nicolle S; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Vance, Marina E; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A; Marr, Linsey C

2015-05-01

Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children's potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child's potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child's potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children's potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children’s potential exposures

PubMed Central

Tulve, Nicolle S.; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B.; Vance, Marina E.; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F.; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A.; Marr, Linsey C.

2015-01-01

Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children’s potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children’s potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. PMID:25747543

Determination of Trace Metals, Moisture, pH and Assessment of Potential Toxicity of Selected Smokeless Tobacco Products

PubMed Central

Prabhakar, V.; Jayakrishnan, G.; Nair, S. V.; Ranganathan, B.

2013-01-01

The characterization and classification of smokeless tobacco products has been a continuously evolving process. This is based on a number of different parameters like nicotine content, moisture content, amount of heavy metals, pH, and in vitro cytotoxicity assays. Their contexts often vary between countries, research institutions, and legal requirements. The categorisation of these products is quite challenging due to the diffused sample sizes, diverse array of branded products on offer, and the absence of a centralized manufacturing facility. This study aims at a systematic classification of 10 smokeless tobacco product samples from the retail market based on their potential toxicity upon long-term use. The estimation of potential toxicity follows a well-established method that employs the concentration of toxic metals in the different samples. The potential toxicity as well as heavy metal concentrations of the smokeless tobacco products analysed was found to be much higher than acceptable limits. For instance, the levels of lead, cadmium, copper and zinc of 2.5, 1, 4 and 23 ppm, respectively, are well above their recommended limits. The results from the study indicate that chronic use of smokeless tobacco products is a significant health risk, especially in the vulnerable population. Further studies of this nature will help establish a toxicological fingerprint on the diverse class of products that floods the market now. PMID:24082341

A methodology for conducting national-scale alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessments, with a focus on artisanal mining

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.

2012-01-01

In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that export shipments of rough diamonds were free of conflict concerns. Outcomes of the meeting were formally supported later in December of 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. As of August 2012, the Kimberley Process (KP) had 51 participants representing 77 countries. It is often difficult to obtain independent verification of the diamond production statistics that are provided to the KP. However, some degree of independent verification can be obtained through an understanding of a country’s naturally occurring endowment of diamonds and the intensity of mining activities. Studies that integrate these two components can produce a range of estimated values for a country’s diamond production, and these estimates can then be compared to the production statistics released by that country. This methodology is used to calculate (1) the diamond resource potential of a country, which refers to the total number of carats estimated to be remaining in the country, and (2) the diamond production capacity of a country, which is the current volume of diamonds that may realistically be produced per year utilizing current human and physical resources. The following sections outline the methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to perform diamond assessments in Mali, the Central African Republic, Ghana, and Guinea.

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

DOE PAGES

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; ...

2018-01-05

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

2018-02-01

We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m2 of suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.

Renewable Energy Production from Waste to Mitigate Climate Change and Counteract Soil Degradation - A Spatial Explicit Assessment for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraxner, Florian; Yoshikawa, Kunio; Leduc, Sylvain; Fuss, Sabine; Aoki, Kentaro; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2014-05-01

Waste production from urban areas is growing faster than urbanization itself, while at the same time urban areas are increasingly contributing substantial emissions causing climate change. Estimates indicate for urban residents a per capita solid waste (MSW) production of 1.2 kg per day, subject to further increase to 1.5 kg beyond 2025. Waste water and sewage production is estimated at about 260 liters per capita and day, also at increasing rates. Based on these figures, waste - including e.g. MSW, sewage and animal manure - can generally be assumed as a renewable resource with varying organic components and quantity. This paper demonstrates how new and innovative technologies in the field of Waste-to-Green Products can help in various ways not only to reduce costs for waste treatment, reduce the pressure on largely overloaded dump sites, and reduce also the effect of toxic materials at the landfill site and by that i.e. protect the groundwater. Moreover, Waste-to-Green Products can contribute actively to mitigating climate change through fossil fuel substitution and carbon sequestration while at the same time counteracting negative land use effects from other types of renewable energy and feedstock production through substitution. At the same time, the co-production and recycling of fertilizing elements and biochar can substantially counteract soil degradation and improve the soil organic carbon content of different land use types. The overall objective of this paper is to assess the total climate change mitigation potential of MSW, sewage and animal manure for Japan. A techno-economic approach is used to inform the policy discussion on the suitability of this substantial and sustainable mitigation option. We examine the spatial explicit technical mitigation potential from e.g. energy substitution and carbon sequestration through biochar in rural and urban Japan. For this exercise, processed information on respective Japanese waste production, energy demand (population density) and transport infrastructure is used as input data to an engineering model (BeWhere) for optimizing scale and location of waste treatment plants with potential energy and fertilizer co-generation. Finally, this paper quantifies the economic dimension of mitigation through innovative waste treatment while considering the additional business-feasibility and potential benefits from waste treatment co-products such as energy generation, fertilizer and biochar production for counteracting soil degradation.

Planck 2015 results: XV. Gravitational lensing

DOE PAGES

Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; ...

2016-09-20

Here, we present the most significant measurement of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential to date (at a level of 40σ), using temperature and polarization data from the Planck 2015 full-mission release. Using a polarization-only estimator, we detect lensing at a significance of 5σ. We cross-check the accuracy of our measurement using the wide frequency coverage and complementarity of the temperature and polarization measurements. Public products based on this measurement include an estimate of the lensing potential over approximately 70% of the sky, an estimate of the lensing potential power spectrum in bandpowers for the multipole range 40 ≤more » L ≤ 400, and an associated likelihood for cosmological parameter constraints. We find good agreement between our measurement of the lensing potential power spectrum and that found in the ΛCDM model that best fits the Planck temperature and polarization power spectra. Using the lensing likelihood alone we obtain a percent-level measurement of the parameter combination σ 8Ω 0.25 m = 0.591 ± 0.021. We combine our determination of the lensing potential with the E-mode polarization, also measured by Planck, to generate an estimate of the lensing B-mode. We show that this lensing B-mode estimate is correlated with the B-modes observed directly by Planck at the expected level and with a statistical significance of 10σ, confirming Planck’s sensitivity to this known sky signal. Finally, we also correlate our lensing potential estimate with the large-scale temperature anisotropies, detecting a cross-correlation at the 3σ level, as expected because of dark energy in the concordance ΛCDM model.« less

Estimating productivity costs in health economic evaluations: a review of instruments and psychometric evidence.

PubMed

Tang, Kenneth

2015-01-01

Health economic evaluations (i.e. cost-effectiveness appraisal of an intervention) are useful aids for decision makers responsible for the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The relevance of including health-related productivity costs (or benefits) in these evaluations is increasingly recognized and, as such, reliable and valid instruments to quantify productivity costs are needed. Over the years, a number of work productivity instruments have emerged in the literature, along with a growing body of psychometric evidence. The overall aim of this paper is to provide a review of available instruments with potential for estimating health-related productivity costs. This included the Health and Labor Questionnaire, Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, Health-Related Productivity Questionnaire Diary, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, Quantity and Quality method, Stanford Presenteeism Scale 13, Valuation of Lost Productivity, Work and Health Interview, Work Limitations Questionnaire, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire, and Work Productivity Short Inventory. Critical discussions on the instruments' overall strengths and limitations, applicability for health economic evaluations, as well as the methodological quality of existing psychometric evidence were provided. Lastly, a set of reflective questions were proposed for users to consider when selecting an instrument for health economic evaluations.

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.

1992-01-01

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction).

Assessment of application of selected waste for production of biogas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawlita-Posmyk, Monika; Wzorek, Małgorzata

2017-10-01

Recently, the idea of biogas production has become a popular topic in Poland. Biogas is a valuable source of renewable energy with a potential application in electricity and heat production. Numerous types of technological solutions of biogas production are closely linked to the availability of substrates in the area, as well as their quantity and their properties. The paper presents the assessment of application in biogas production selected wastes such as communal and household sewage sludge and waste from a paper production in Opole region (Poland). The annual productions of methane, biogas and electricity were estimated. Chosen physico-chemical properties important in fermentation process were taken into consideration in the assessment. The highest value of potential energy was obtained using waste from the paper industry but the most appropriate parameters for this process has sewage sludge from the municipal sewage treatment plant. The use of sewage sludge from domestic and municipal sewage and waste from the paper industry creates the opportunity to reduce the amount of waste materials.

Probabilistic risk model to assess the potential for resistance selection following the use of anti-microbial medicated feed in pigs.

PubMed

Filippitzi, Maria Eleni; Chantziaras, Ilias; Devreese, Mathias; Dewulf, Jeroen

2018-05-30

The cross-contamination of non-medicated feed with residues of anti-microbials (AM) causes a public and animal health concern associated with the potential for selection and dissemination of resistance. To analyse the associated risks, a probabilistic model was built using @Risk® (Palisade Corporation®) to show the potential extent of the effect of cross-contaminated pig feed on resistance selection. The results of the model include estimations of the proportion of pigs per production stage with residues of doxycycline, chlortetracycline, sulfadiazine and trimethoprim in their intestinal contents, as a result of exposure to cross-contaminated feed with different carry-over levels, in Belgium. By using a semi-quantitative approach, these estimations were combined with experimental data on AM concentrations associated with potential for resistance-selection pressure. Based on this model, it is estimated that 7.76% (min = 1.67; max = 36.94) of sows, 4.23% (min = 1.01%; max = 18.78%) of piglets and 2.8% (min = 0.51%; max = 14.9%) of fatteners in Belgium have residues of doxycycline in their intestinal tract due to consumption of feed with at least 1% carry-over. These values were estimated to be almost triple for sulfadiazine, but substantially lower for chlortetracycline and trimethoprim. Doxycycline concentrations as low as 1 mg/L (corresponding to consumed feed with at least 1% carry-over) can select for resistant porcine commensal Escherichia coli in vitro and in vivo. Conclusions on this risk could not be drawn for other AM at this stage, due to the lack of data on concentrations associated with resistance development. However, since the possibility of resistance mechanisms (e.g. co-selection) occurring cannot be excluded, the results of this model highlight that the use of AM medicated feed should be minimised where possible. In case of medicated feed production, good practice should be followed thoroughly at all levels of production, distribution, storage and administration, with a special focus on the feed distributed to piglets and sows.

Energy potential of the modified excess sludge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zawieja, Iwona

2017-11-01

On the basis of the SCOD value of excess sludge it is possible to estimate an amount of energy potentially obtained during the methane fermentation process. Based on a literature review, it has been estimated that from 1 kg of SCOD it is possible to obtain 3.48 kWh of energy. Taking into account the above methane and energy ratio (i.e. 10 kWh/1Nm3 CH4), it is possible to determine the volume of methane obtained from the tested sludge. Determination of potential energy of sludge is necessary for the use of biogas as a source of power generators as cogeneration and ensure the stability of this type of system. Therefore, the aim of the study was to determine the energy potential of excess sludge subjected to the thermal and chemical disintegration. In the case of thermal disintegration, test was conducted in the low temperature 80°C. The reagent used for the chemical modification was a peracetic acid, which in an aqueous medium having strong oxidizing properties. The time of chemical modification was 6 hours. Applied dose of the reagent was 1.0 ml CH3COOOH/L of sludge. By subjecting the sludge disintegration by the test methods achieved an increase in the SCOD value of modified sludge, indicating the improvement of biodegradability along with a concomitant increase in their energy potential. The obtained experimental production of biogas from disintegrated sludge confirmed that it is possible to estimate potential intensity of its production. The SCOD value of 2576 mg O2/L, in the case of chemical disintegration, was obtained for a dose of 1.0 ml CH3COOH/L. For this dose the pH value was equal 6.85. In the case of thermal disintegration maximum SCOD value was 2246 mg O2/L obtained at 80°C and the time of preparation 6 h. It was estimated that in case of thermal disintegration as well as for the chemical disintegration for selected parameters, the potential energy for model digester of active volume of 5L was, respectively, 0.193 and 0,118 kWh.

Estimated costs of production and potential prices for the WHO Essential Medicines List

PubMed Central

Hill, Andrew M; Barber, Melissa J

2018-01-01

Introduction There are persistent gaps in access to affordable medicines. The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML) includes medicines considered necessary for functional health systems. Methods A generic price estimation formula was developed by reviewing published analyses of cost of production for medicines and assuming manufacture in India, which included costs of formulation, packaging, taxation and a 10% profit margin. Data on per-kilogram prices of active pharmaceutical ingredient exported from India were retrieved from an online database. Estimated prices were compared with the lowest globally available prices for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria medicines, and current prices in the UK, South Africa and India. Results The estimation formula had good predictive accuracy for HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria medicines. Estimated generic prices ranged from US$0.01 to US$1.45 per unit, with most in the lower end of this range. Lowest available prices were greater than estimated generic prices for 214/277 (77%) comparable items in the UK, 142/212 (67%) in South Africa and 118/298 (40%) in India. Lowest available prices were more than three times above estimated generic price for 47% of cases compared in the UK and 22% in South Africa. Conclusion A wide range of medicines in the EML can be profitably manufactured at very low cost. Most EML medicines are sold in the UK and South Africa at prices significantly higher than those estimated from production costs. Generic price estimation and international price comparisons could empower government price negotiations and support cost-effectiveness calculations. PMID:29564159

Illness related wage and productivity losses: Valuing 'presenteeism'.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Sun, Huiying; Woodcock, Simon; Anis, Aslam

2015-12-01

One source of productivity loss due to illness is the reduced "quantity" or "quality" of labor input while working, often referred to as presenteeism. Illness-related presenteeism has been found to be potentially more costly than absenteeism. To value presenteeism, existing methods use wages as a proxy for marginal productivity at the firm level. However, wage may not equal marginal productivity in some scenarios. One instance is when a job involves team production and perfect substitutes for workers are not readily available. Using a Canadian linked employer-employee survey (2001-2005), we test whether relative wage equals relative marginal productivity among team workers and non-team workers with different frequencies of presenteeism (reduction at work due to illness). For the pooled cross-sectional estimates (2001, 2003, 2005) we obtain 13,755 observations with 6842 unique workplaces. There are 6490 observations for the first differences estimates from the odd years and 5263 observations for the first differences estimates from 2001 to 2002 and 2003 to 2004. We find that in both small and large firms, team workers with frequent reductions at work are less productive but earn similarly compared with non-team workers without reductions. We also find that in small firms, workers with occasional work reductions are more productive than workers without reductions, but the reverse is true in large firms. The study findings partially support the literature stating that productivity loss resulting from employee presenteeism could exceed wages if team work is involved. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Impacts of Increased Management Intensities on Planted Pine Growth and Yield and Timber Supply Modeling in the South

Treesearch

Jacek P. Siry; Frederick W. Cubbage; Andy J. Malmquist

1999-01-01

The South can increase pine productivity on its forest lands as increased timber prices make returns from intensified forest management more profitable. We determined the most likely management intensities on industrial lands resulting in five management intensity classes. They are used to estimate the potential growth and yield levels, and compare these to empirical...

Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally.

PubMed

Houghton, Richard A; Nassikas, Alexander A

2018-01-01

Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land-use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be -4.4 PgC/year, globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long-lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Health and productivity gains from better indoor environments and their relationship with building energy efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisk, William J.

2000-04-01

Theoretical considerations and empirical data suggest that existing technologies and procedures can improve indoor environments in a manner that significantly increases productivity and health. Existing literature contains moderate to strong evidence that characteristics of buildings and indoor environments significantly influence rates of communicable respiratory illness, allergy and asthma symptoms, sick building symptoms, and worker performance. While there is considerable uncertainty in the estimates of the magnitudes of productivity gains that may be obtained by providing better indoor environments, the projected gains are very large. For the U.S., the estimated potential annual savings and productivity gains are $6 to $14 billionmore » from reduced respiratory disease, $2 to $4 billion from reduced allergies and asthma, $10 to $30 billion from reduced sick building syndrome symptoms, and $20 to $160 billion from direct improvements in worker performance that are unrelated to health. Productivity gains that are quantified and demonstrated could serve as a strong stimulus for energy efficiency measures that simultaneously improve the indoor environment.« less

Attributable Risk Analysis Reveals Potential Healthcare Savings from Increased Consumption of Dairy Products123

PubMed Central

Doidge, James C.; Segal, Leonie; Gospodarevskaya, Elena

2012-01-01

With rising burdens of obesity and chronic disease, the role of diet as a modifiable risk factor is of increasing public health interest. There is a growing body of evidence that low consumption of dairy products is associated with elevated risk of chronic metabolic and cardiovascular disorders. Surveys also suggest that dairy product consumption falls well below recommended targets for much of the population in many countries, including the USA, UK, and Australia. We reviewed the scientific literature on the health effects of dairy product consumption (both positive and negative) and used the best available evidence to estimate the direct healthcare expenditure and burden of disease [disability-adjusted life years (DALY)] attributable to low consumption of dairy products in Australia. We implemented a novel technique for estimating population attributable risk developed for application in nutrition and other areas in which exposure to risk is a continuous variable. We found that in the 2010–2011 financial year, AUD$2.0 billion (USD$2.1 billion, €1.6 billion, or ∼1.7% of direct healthcare expenditure) and the loss of 75,012 DALY were attributable to low dairy product consumption. In sensitivity analyses, varying core assumptions yielded corresponding estimates of AUD$1.1–3.8 billion (0.9–3.3%) and 38,299–151,061 DALY lost. The estimated healthcare cost attributable to low dairy product consumption is comparable with total spending on public health in Australia (AUD$2.0 billion in 2009–2010). These findings justify the development and evaluation of cost-effective interventions that use dairy products as a vector for reducing the costs of diet-related disease. PMID:22833660

Aqueous-phase oxidation of green leaf volatiles by hydroxyl radical as a source of SOA: Product identification from methyl jasmonate and methyl salicylate oxidation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansel, Amie K.; Ehrenhauser, Franz S.; Richards-Henderson, Nicole K.; Anastasio, Cort; Valsaraj, Kalliat T.

2015-02-01

Green leaf volatiles (GLVs) are a group of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) released into the atmosphere by vegetation. BVOCs produce secondary organic aerosol (SOA) via gas-phase reactions, but little is known of their aqueous-phase oxidation as a source of SOA. GLVs can partition into atmospheric water phases, e.g., fog, mist, dew or rain, and be oxidized by hydroxyl radicals (˙OH). These reactions in the liquid phase also lead to products that have higher molecular weights, increased polarity, and lower vapor pressures, ultimately forming SOA after evaporation of the droplet. To examine this process, we investigated the aqueous, ˙OH-mediated oxidation of methyl jasmonate (MeJa) and methyl salicylate (MeSa), two GLVs that produce aqueous-phase SOA. High performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS) was used to monitor product formation. The oxidation products identified exhibit higher molecular mass than their parent GLV due to either dimerization or the addition of oxygen and hydroxyl functional groups. The proposed structures of potential products are based on mechanistic considerations combined with the HPLC/ESI-MS data. Based on the structures, the vapor pressure and the Henry's law constant were estimated with multiple methods (SPARC, SIMPOL, MPBPVP, Bond and Group Estimations). The estimated vapor pressures of the products identified are significantly (up to 7 orders of magnitude) lower than those of the associated parent compounds, and therefore, the GLV oxidation products may remain as SOA after evaporation of the water droplet. The contribution of the identified oxidation products to SOA formation is estimated based on measured HPLC-ESI/MS responses relative to previous aqueous SOA mass yield measurements.

Yield estimation of corn with multispectral data and the potential of using imaging spectrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bach, Heike

1997-05-01

In the frame of the special yield estimation, a regular procedure conducted for the European Union to more accurately estimate agricultural yield, a project was conducted for the state minister for Rural Environment, Food and Forestry of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany) to test remote sensing data with advanced yield formation models for accuracy and timelines of yield estimation of corn. The methodology employed uses field-based plant parameter estimation from atmospherically corrected multitemporal/multispectral LANDSAT-TM data. An agrometeorological plant-production-model is used for yield prediction. Based solely on 4 LANDSAT-derived estimates and daily meteorological data the grain yield of corn stands was determined for 1995. The modeled yield was compared with results independently gathered within the special yield estimation for 23 test fields in the Upper Rhine Valley. The agrement between LANDSAT-based estimates and Special Yield Estimation shows a relative error of 2.3 percent. The comparison of the results for single fields shows, that six weeks before harvest the grain yield of single corn fields was estimated with a mean relative accuracy of 13 percent using satellite information. The presented methodology can be transferred to other crops and geographical regions. For future applications hyperspectral sensors show great potential to further enhance the results or yield prediction with remote sensing.

Preferences of processing companies for attributes of Swiss milk: a conjoint analysis in a business-to-business market.

PubMed

Boesch, I

2013-04-01

This study aimed to determine key attributes of milk that drive a processor's supply decisions and possibilities for differentiation based on these product attributes. Feedback-driven exploration was applied to derive product attributes relevant to the buying decision. Conjoint analysis with hierarchical Bayes estimation methods was used to determine the relative importance of attributes. Results show that the technical aspects of milk, as well as the price and country of origin, dominate the buying decision. Potential for differentiation was found for environmental and societal attributes as well as freedom from genetically modified products. Product and supplier criteria also provide the potential to segment the market if the price premium is held within limits. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce malaria in communities.

PubMed

Kiszewski, A E; Darling, S T

2010-12-01

Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce malaria transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide a means for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, we developed a simple mathematical model. A static probability model is presented to simulate malaria infection in a community during a single transmission season. The model includes five parameters- sporozoite rate, human infection rate, biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product-acceptance rate. The model assumes that a certain percentage of the population uses a personal mosquito repellent over the course of a seven-month transmission season and that this repellent maintains a constant rate of protective efficacy against the bites of malaria vectors. This model measures the probability of evading infection in circumstances where vector biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product acceptance may vary. [corrected] Absolute protection using mosquito repellents alone requires high rates of repellent efficacy and product acceptance. [corrected] Using performance data from a highly effective repellent, the model estimates an 88.9% reduction of infections over a seven- month transmission season. A corresponding reduction in the incidence of super-infection in community members not completely evading infection can also be presumed. Thus, the model shows that mass distribution of a repellent with >98% efficacy and >98% product acceptance would suppress new malaria infections to levels lower than those achieved with insecticide treated nets (ITNs). A combination of both interventions could create synergies that result in reductions of disease burden significantly greater than with the use of ITNs alone.

Could a tax on unhealthy products sold for weight loss reduce consumer use? A novel estimation of potential taxation effects.

PubMed

Bryn Austin, S; Liu, Selena Hua; Tefft, Nathan

2018-05-26

Abuse of widely available, over-the-counter (OTC) drugs and supplements such as diet pills, laxatives, and diuretics by adolescents for weight control is well-documented, yet manufacturers and retailers can sell them to minors without restriction. The aim of our study was to estimate the effect of added taxation of OTC drugs and dietary supplements sold for weight loss on household purchases of these products. With data from 60,538 U.S. households in the 2012 waves of the Nielsen/IRi National Consumer Panel (NCP) and the Nielsen/IRi Retail Scanner (NRS) datasets, we conducted analyses in 2017 to tally annual quantities and expenditures on OTC drugs or dietary supplements making weight-loss, cleanse/detox, or diuretic claims. We estimated the percent reduction in household purchases due to a simulated 20% added tax on each category. Among the 14,151 households reporting at least one purchase in the three claims categories, a 20% higher average price of weight-loss products was associated with a 5.2% lower purchases of those products. Among households with children ages 12 to 17 years old present, purchases were 17.5% lower, and among households with a daughter present, purchases were 10.3% lower. Taxation may be an effective public health strategy to reduce purchasing of potentially dangerous OTC drugs and supplements sold for weight loss, especially for households that include children ages 12-17 years old or a daughter. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Potential occupational risk of amines in carbon capture for power generation.

PubMed

Gentry, P Robinan; House-Knight, Tamara; Harris, Angela; Greene, Tracy; Campleman, Sharan

2014-08-01

While CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology has been well studied in terms of its efficacy and cost of implementation, there is limited available data concerning the potential for occupational exposure to amines, mixtures of amines, or degradation of by-products from the CCS process. This paper is a critical review of the available data concerning the potential effects of amines and CCS-degradation by-products. A comprehensive review of the occupational health and safety issues associated with exposure to amines and amine by-products at CCS facilities was performed, along with a review of the regulatory status and guidelines of amines, by-products, and CCS process vapor mixtures. There are no specific guidelines or regulations regarding permissible levels of exposure via air for amines and degradation products that could form atmospheric oxidation of amines released from post-combustion CO2 capture plants. While there has been a worldwide effort to develop legal and regulatory frameworks for CCS, none are directly related to occupational exposures. By-products of alkanolamine degradation may pose the most significant health hazard to workers in CCS facilities, with several aldehydes, amides, nitramines, and nitrosamines classified as either known or potential/possible human carcinogens. The absence of large-scale CCS facilities; absence and unreliability of reported data in the literature from pilot facilities; and proprietary amine blends make it difficult to estimate potential amine exposures and predict formation and exposure to degradation products.

[Hospital production cost of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in the treatment of depression].

PubMed

Etcheverrigaray, F; Bulteau, S; Machon, L O; Riche, V P; Mauduit, N; Tricot, R; Sellal, O; Sauvaget, A

2015-08-01

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is an effective and well-tolerated treatment in resistant depression with mild to moderate intensity. This indication has not yet been approved in France. The cost and medico-economic value of rTMS in psychiatry remains unknown. The aim of this preliminary study was to assess rTMS cost production analysis as an in-hospital treatment for depression. The methodology, derived from analytical accounts, was validated by a multidisciplinary task force (clinicians, public health doctors, pharmacists, administrative officials and health economist). It was pragmatic, based on official and institutional documentary sources and from field practice. It included equipment, staff, and structure costs, to get an estimate as close to reality as possible. First, we estimated the production cost of rTMS session, based on our annual activity. We then estimated the cost of a cure, which includes 15 sessions. A sensitivity analysis was also performed. The hospital production cost of a cure for treating depression was estimated at € 1932.94 (€ 503.55 for equipment, € 1082.75 for the staff, and € 346.65 for structural expenses). This cost-estimate has resulted from an innovative, pragmatic, and cooperative approach. It is slightly higher but more comprehensive than the costs estimated by the few international studies. However, it is limited due to structure-specific problems and activity. This work could be repeated in other circumstances in order to obtain a more general estimate, potentially helpful for determining an official price for the French health care system. Moreover, budgetary constraints and public health choices should be taken into consideration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian

2017-02-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar power plants, the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be invariable over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering several decades indeed confirm long-term changes in this quantity. In a previous study (Wild et al. 2015, Solar Energy)1 we examined how the latest generation of climate models (CMIP5) projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, future power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. In the present complementary study, we use the CMIP5 model projections to estimate possible future changes in power output from Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems due to changing climate and air pollution levels up to the mid-21th century. The results indicate a potential for future increases in CSP production in many parts of the globe, with few exceptions such as the North of India and the irrelevant polar areas. Compared to the changes in PV production, the estimated future production changes by CSP are larger by a factor of 4.

RFID in the blood supply chain--increasing productivity, quality and patient safety.

PubMed

Briggs, Lynne; Davis, Rodeina; Gutierrez, Alfonso; Kopetsky, Matthew; Young, Kassandra; Veeramani, Raj

2009-01-01

As part of an overall design of a new, standardized RFID-enabled blood transfusion medicine supply chain, an assessment was conducted for two hospitals: the University of Iowa Hospital and Clinics (UIHC) and Mississippi Baptist Health System (MBHS). The main objectives of the study were to assess RFID technological and economic feasibility, along with possible impacts to productivity, quality and patient safety. A step-by-step process analysis focused on the factors contributing to process "pain points" (errors, inefficiency, product losses). A process re-engineering exercise produced blueprints of RFID-enabled processes to alleviate or eliminate those pain-points. In addition, an innovative model quantifying the potential reduction in adverse patient effects as a result of RFID implementation was created, allowing improvement initiatives to focus on process areas with the greatest potential impact to patient safety. The study concluded that it is feasible to implement RFID-enabled processes, with tangible improvements to productivity and safety expected. Based on a comprehensive cost/benefit model, it is estimated for a large hospital (UIHC) to recover investment from implementation within two to three years, while smaller hospitals may need longer to realize ROI. More importantly, the study estimated that RFID technology could reduce morbidity and mortality effects substantially among patients receiving transfusions.

Aquacultural and socio-economic aspects of processing carps into some value-added products.

PubMed

Sehgal, H S; Sehgal, G K

2002-05-01

Carps are the mainstay of Indian aquaculture, contributing over 90% to the total fish production, which was estimated to be 1.77 million metric tonnes in 1996. Carp culture has a great potential for waste utilization and thus for pollution abatement. Many wastes such as cow, poultry, pig, duck, goat, and sheep excreta, biogas slurry, effluents from different kinds of factories/industries have been efficiently used for enhancing the productivity of natural food of carps and related species. Besides, several organic wastes/byproducts such as plant products, wastes from animal husbandry, and industrial by-products have been used as carp feed ingredients to lower the cost of supplementary feeding. However, to ensure the continued expansion of fish ponds and the pollution control, there must be a market for the fish (carps) produced in these ponds. The carps have, however, a low market value due to the presence of intra-muscular bones, which reduces their consumer acceptability. Thus, a need was felt to develop some boneless convenience products for enhancing the consumer acceptability of the carps. Efforts were made to prepare three value-added fish products, namely fish patty, fish finger and fish salad from carp flesh and were compared with a reference product ('fish pakoura'). Sensory evaluation of these products gave highly encouraging results. The methods of preparation of these products were transferred to some progressive farmers of the region who prepared and sold these products at very attractive prices. Carp processing has a great potential for the establishment of a fish ancillary industry and thus for boosting the production of these species. In Punjab alone, there is a potential of consuming 32,448 metric tonnes per annum of such value-added products (which would require 54,080 metric tonnes of raw fish). The development of value-added products has a significant role in raising the socio-economic status of the people associated with carp culture. The average cost of production of these products was estimated to be INR 80 per kg. With a sale price of INR 110 per kg, and a sale of 50 kg per day of the value-added products (26 days a month), the average monthly income of a carp-processing unit comes to be INR 39,000 (929 USD, approximately).

Biomass yield from an urban landscape

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Utilizing biomass from urban landscapes could significantly contribute to the nation’s renewable energy needs. In 2007, an experiment was begun to evaluate the biomass production from a bermudagrass, Cynodon dactylon var. dactylon (L.) Pers., lawn in Woodward, Oklahoma and to estimate the potential...

16 CFR 1633.8 - Findings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION FLAMMABLE FABRICS ACT REGULATIONS STANDARD FOR THE FLAMMABILITY... regulation has been adopted and implemented. (c) Relationship of benefits to costs. The Commission estimates the potential total lifetime benefits of a mattress that complies with this standard to range from $45...

Analysis of the potential benefits of larger trucks for U.S. businesses operating private fleets.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-05-01

This study examines the current operational and economic performance of a sample of companies that operate private fleets and establishes a present-day baseline of transport productivity and efficiency. It also estimates how transportation performanc...

Nucleon interaction data bases for background estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.

1989-01-01

Nucleon interaction data bases available in the open literature are examined for potential use in a recently developed nucleon transport code. Particular attention is given to secondary particle penetration and the multiple charged ion products. A brief description of the transport algorithm is given.

Reassessment of the potential economic impact of cattle parasites in Brazil.

PubMed

Grisi, Laerte; Leite, Romário Cerqueira; Martins, João Ricardo de Souza; Barros, Antonio Thadeu Medeiros de; Andreotti, Renato; Cançado, Paulo Henrique Duarte; León, Adalberto Angel Pérez de; Pereira, Jairo Barros; Villela, Humberto Silva

2014-01-01

The profitability of livestock activities can be diminished significantly by the effects of parasites. Economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Brazil were estimated on an annual basis, considering the total number of animals at risk and the potential detrimental effects of parasitism on cattle productivity. Estimates in U.S. dollars (USD) were based on reported yield losses among untreated animals and reflected some of the effects of parasitic diseases. Relevant parasites that affect cattle productivity in Brazil, and their economic impact in USD billions include: gastrointestinal nematodes - $7.11; cattle tick (Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus) - $3.24; horn fly (Haematobia irritans) - $2.56; cattle grub (Dermatobia hominis) - $0.38; New World screwworm fly (Cochliomyia hominivorax) - $0.34; and stable fly (Stomoxys calcitrans) - $0.34. The combined annual economic loss due to internal and external parasites of cattle in Brazil considered here was estimated to be at least USD 13.96 billion. These findings are discussed in the context of methodologies and research that are required in order to improve the accuracy of these economic impact assessments. This information needs to be taken into consideration when developing sustainable policies for mitigating the impact of parasitism on the profitability of Brazilian cattle producers.

Simple agrometeorological models for estimating Guineagrass yield in Southeast Brazil.

PubMed

Pezzopane, José Ricardo Macedo; da Cruz, Pedro Gomes; Santos, Patricia Menezes; Bosi, Cristiam; de Araujo, Leandro Coelho

2014-09-01

The objective of this work was to develop and evaluate agrometeorological models to simulate the production of Guineagrass. For this purpose, we used forage yield from 54 growing periods between December 2004-January 2007 and April 2010-March 2012 in irrigated and non-irrigated pastures in São Carlos, São Paulo state, Brazil (latitude 21°57'42″ S, longitude 47°50'28″ W and altitude 860 m). Initially we performed linear regressions between the agrometeorological variables and the average dry matter accumulation rate for irrigated conditions. Then we determined the effect of soil water availability on the relative forage yield considering irrigated and non-irrigated pastures, by means of segmented linear regression among water balance and relative production variables (dry matter accumulation rates with and without irrigation). The models generated were evaluated with independent data related to 21 growing periods without irrigation in the same location, from eight growing periods in 2000 and 13 growing periods between December 2004-January 2007 and April 2010-March 2012. The results obtained show the satisfactory predictive capacity of the agrometeorological models under irrigated conditions based on univariate regression (mean temperature, minimum temperature and potential evapotranspiration or degreedays) or multivariate regression. The response of irrigation on production was well correlated with the climatological water balance variables (ratio between actual and potential evapotranspiration or between actual and maximum soil water storage). The models that performed best for estimating Guineagrass yield without irrigation were based on minimum temperature corrected by relative soil water storage, determined by the ratio between the actual soil water storage and the soil water holding capacity.irrigation in the same location, in 2000, 2010 and 2011. The results obtained show the satisfactory predictive capacity of the agrometeorological models under irrigated conditions based on univariate regression (mean temperature, potential evapotranspiration or degree-days) or multivariate regression. The response of irrigation on production was well correlated with the climatological water balance variables (ratio between actual and potential evapotranspiration or between actual and maximum soil water storage). The models that performed best for estimating Guineagrass yield without irrigation were based on degree-days corrected by the water deficit factor.

Potato Production as Affected by Crop Parameters and Meteoro Logical Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, André B.; Villa Nova, Nilson A.; Pereira, Antonio R.

Meteorological elements directly influence crop potential productivity, regulating its transpiration, photosynthesis, and respiration processes in such a way as to control the growth and development of the plants throughout their physiological mechanisms at a given site. The interaction of the meteorological factors with crop responses is complex and has been the target of attention of many researchers from all over the world. There is currently a great deal of interest in estimating crop productivity as a function of climate by means of different crop weather models in order to help growers choose planting locations and timing to produce high yields with good tuber quality under site-specific atmospheric conditions. In this manuscript an agrometeorological model based on maximum carbon dioxide assimilation rates for C3 plants, fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, photoperiod duration, and crop parameters is assessed as to its performance under tropical conditions. Crop parameters include leaf areaand harvest indexes, dry matter content of potato tubers, and crop cycles to estimate potato potential yields. Productivity obtained with the cultivar Itararé, grown with adequate soil water supply conditions at four different sites in the State of São Paulo (Itararé, Piracicaba, TatuÍ, and São Manuel), Brazil, were used to test the model. The results showed thatthe agrometeorological model tested under the climatic conditions of the State of São Paulo in general underestimated irrigated potato yield by less than 10%.This justifies the recommendation to test the performance of the model in study in other climaticregions for different crops and genotypes under optimal irrigationconditions in further scientific investigations. We reached the conclusion that the agrometeorological model taking into account information on leaf area index, photoperiod duration, photosynthetically active radiation and air temperature is feasible to estimate potential tuber yield at a commercial scale. The performance test shows that it can then be used to forecast harvest time, and also as an effective tool to predict the suitability of potential regions to the cultivation of potato crop, cultivar Itararé, at the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina

2016-06-01

This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural incomes in Spanish rural areas. Present research has focused on the effects of these extreme climatological events through response functions, considering effects on crop productivity and average incomes. Among the impacts of droughts, we focused on potential effects on income distribution. The study of the effects on abnormally dry periods is therefore needed in order to perform an analysis of diverse social aspects in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a measure of the decomposition of inequality to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. Certain adaptation measures may require a better understanding of risks by the public to achieve general acceptance. We provide empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two impacts considered: farms' average income and income distribution. Our estimates consider crop production response to both biophysical and socio-economic aspects to analyse long-term implications on competitiveness and disparities. As for the results, we find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analysed.

Productivity loss due to premature mortality caused by blood cancer: a study based on patients undergoing stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Ortega-Ortega, Marta; Oliva-Moreno, Juan; Jiménez-Aguilera, Juan de Dios; Romero-Aguilar, Antonio; Espigado-Tocino, Ildefonso

2015-01-01

Stem cell transplantation has been used for many years to treat haematological malignancies that could not be cured by other treatments. Despite this medical breakthrough, mortality rates remain high. Our purpose was to evaluate labour productivity losses associated with premature mortality due to blood cancer in recipients of stem cell transplantations. We collected primary data from the clinical histories of blood cancer patients who had undergone stem cell transplantation between 2006 and 2011 in two Spanish hospitals. We carried out a descriptive analysis and calculated the years of potential life lost and years of potential productive life lost. Labour productivity losses due to premature mortality were estimated using the Human Capital method. An alternative approach, the Friction Cost method, was used as part of the sensitivity analysis. Our findings suggest that, in a population of 179 transplanted and deceased patients, males and people who die between the ages of 30 and 49 years generate higher labour productivity losses. The estimated loss amounts to over €31.4 million using the Human Capital method (€480,152 using the Friction Cost method), which means an average of €185,855 per death. The highest labour productivity losses are produced by leukaemia. However, lymphoma generates the highest loss per death. Further efforts are needed to reduce premature mortality in blood cancer patients undergoing transplantations and reduce economic losses. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

NDVI, C3 and C4 production, and distributions in Great Plains grassland land cover classes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, L.L.; Reed, Bradley C.; Bliss, Norman B.; Wylie, Bruce K.; DeJong, Benjamin D.

1997-01-01

The distributions of C3 and C4 grasses were used to interpret the distribution, seasonal performance, and potential production of grasslands in the Great Plains of North America. Thirteen major grassland seasonal land cover classes were studied with data from three distinct sources. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor were collected for each pixel over a 5-yr period (1989–1993), analyzed for quantitative attributes and seasonal relationships, and then aggregated by land cover class. Data from the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database were used to identify dominant plant species contributing to the potential production in each map unit. These species were identified as C3 or C4, and contributions to production were aggregated to provide estimates of the percentage of C3 and C4 production for each intersection of the STATSGO map units and the seasonal land cover classes. Carbon isotope values were obtained at specific sites from the soil organic matter of the upper horizon of soil cores and were related to STATSGO estimates of potential production.The grassland classes were distributed with broad northwest-to-southeast orientations. Some classes had large variations in C3 and C4 composition with high proportions of C4species in the south and low proportions in the north. This diversity of photosynthetic types within land cover classes that cross regions of different temperature and precipitation results in similar seasonal patterns and magnitudes of NDVI. The easternmost class, 65, containing tallgrass prairie components, bluestem, Indiangrass, and switchgrass, possessed the highest maximum NDVI and time-integrated NDVI values each year. Grassland classes varied over 5 yr from a high integrated NDVI mean of 4.9 in class 65 in the east to a low of 1.2 in class 76 (sand sage, blue grama, wheatgrass, and buffalograss) in the southwest. Although environmental conditions varied widely during the 5 yr, the rankings of class performance were consistent across years for these NDVI metrics. Land cover classes were less consistent in time of onset, which was often earlier in areas in the north dominated by C3 grasses than in areas to the south dominated by C4grasses. At the level of seasonal land cover classes, no significant relationship was found between the proportions of C3 and C4 species and estimates of potential production derived from the STATSGO database or inferred from the seasonal patterns of NDVI. The isotopic data from specific sites and the potential production data from STATSGO suggest similar patterns of high proportional production by C4 species throughout the south and a decline in proportional production north of the central Great Plains. The land cover classes integrate ecosystem units that encompass a wide diversity of species and C3 and C4 proportions and provide a classification that consistently captures significant ecosystem parameters for the Great Plains.

Using Remotely Sensed Information for Near Real-Time Landslide Hazard Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2013-01-01

The increasing availability of remotely sensed precipitation and surface products provides a unique opportunity to explore how landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment may be approached at larger spatial scales with higher resolution remote sensing products. A prototype global landslide hazard assessment framework has been developed to evaluate how landslide susceptibility and satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used to identify potential landslide conditions in near-real time. Preliminary analysis of this algorithm suggests that forecasting errors are geographically variable due to the resolution and accuracy of the current susceptibility map and the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates. This research is currently working to improve the algorithm through considering higher spatial and temporal resolution landslide susceptibility information and testing different rainfall triggering thresholds, antecedent rainfall scenarios, and various surface products at regional and global scales.

Salmonella risk to consumers via pork is related to the Salmonella prevalence in pig feed.

PubMed

Rönnqvist, M; Välttilä, V; Ranta, J; Tuominen, P

2018-05-01

Pigs are an important source of human infections with Salmonella, one of the most common causes of sporadic gastrointestinal infections and foodborne outbreaks in the European region. Feed has been estimated to be a significant source of Salmonella in piggeries in countries of a low Salmonella prevalence. To estimate Salmonella risk to consumers via the pork production chain, including feed production, a quantitative risk assessment model was constructed. The Salmonella prevalence in feeds and in animals was estimated to be generally low in Finland, but the relative importance of feed as a source of Salmonella in pigs was estimated as potentially high. Discontinuation of the present strict Salmonella control could increase the risk of Salmonella in slaughter pigs and consequent infections in consumers. The increased use of low risk and controlled feed ingredients could result in a consistently lower residual contamination in pigs and help the tracing and control of the sources of infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

PubMed

Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

2008-01-01

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

Deforestation for oil palm alters the fundamental balance of the soil N cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Liz; Trimmer, Mark; Bradley, Chris; Pinay, Gilles

2016-04-01

Expansion of commercial agriculture in equatorial regions has significant implications for regional nitrogen (N) budgets, particularly nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) emissions, produced largely by microbial nitrification and denitrification. However, current estimates of soil N turnover are poorly constrained in Southeast Asia for nitrogen gas (N2) production and lesser known N transformations such as nitrate ammonification (DNRA) and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox). We investigated changes in N availability and turnover following replacement of tropical forest with oil palm plantations along a chronosequence of oil palm maturity (3-months to 15-year-old stands) and secondary to primary forest succession in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Samples were taken from ten sites during March and April 2012. Using 15N tracing techniques, we measured rates of gross ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) production (mineralisation and nitrification) and consumption (n= 8), potential denitrification, DNRA and anammox (n= 12) in soil cores and slurries respectively. Gross mineralisation rates (0.05 - 3.08 g N m-2 d-1) remained unchanged in oil palm relative to forests. However, a significant reduction in gross nitrification (0.04 - 2.31 g N m-2 d-1) and an increase in NH4+ immobilisation disrupt the pathway to N2 production substantially reducing (by > 90%) rates of denitrification and anammox in recently planted oil palm relative to primary forest. In forests, N2 produced via anammox was ˜30% of that from denitrification highlighting the potential for anammox to contribute significantly to N2 production. NH4+ production rates from DNRA were over two orders of magnitude less than N2 production rates indicating that denitrification is the primary dissimilatory nitrate consumption process in these soils. Potential N2O emissions were greater than potential N2 production, remaining unchanged across the chronosequence and indicating an increased N2O:N2 emission ratio when soils were first disturbed. These results are an important precursor to studies providing improved estimates of regional N turnover and loss in Southeast Asia which will have global implications for N biogeochemical cycling.

Bottomonium suppression using a lattice QCD vetted potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krouppa, Brandon; Rothkopf, Alexander; Strickland, Michael

2018-01-01

We estimate bottomonium yields in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using a lattice QCD vetted, complex-valued, heavy-quark potential embedded in a realistic, hydrodynamically evolving medium background. We find that the lattice-vetted functional form and temperature dependence of the proper heavy-quark potential dramatically reduces the dependence of the yields on parameters other than the temperature evolution, strengthening the picture of bottomonium as QGP thermometer. Our results also show improved agreement between computed yields and experimental data produced in RHIC 200 GeV /nucleon collisions. For LHC 2.76 TeV /nucleon collisions, the excited states, whose suppression has been used as a vital sign for quark-gluon-plasma production in a heavy-ion collision, are reproduced better than previous perturbatively-motivated potential models; however, at the highest LHC energies our estimates for bottomonium suppression begin to underestimate the data. Possible paths to remedy this situation are discussed.

Differential global profiling as a new analytical strategy for revealing micropollutant treatment by-products: application to ethinylestradiol and chlorination water treatment.

PubMed

Gervais, Gaël; Bichon, Emmanuelle; Antignac, Jean-Philippe; Monteau, Fabrice; Leroy, Gaëla; Barritaud, Lauriane; Chachignon, Mathilde; Ingrand, Valérie; Roche, Pascal; Le Bizec, Bruno

2011-06-01

The detection and structural elucidation of micropollutants treatment by-products are major issues to estimate efficiencies of the processes employed for drinking water production versus endocrine disruptive compounds contamination. This issue was mainly investigated at the laboratory scale and in high concentration conditions. However, potential by-products generated after chlorination can be influenced by the dilution factor employed in real conditions. The present study proposes a new methodology borrowed to the metabolomic science, using liquid chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry, in order to reveal potential chlorination by-products of ethinylestradiol in spiked real water samples at the part-per-billion level (5 μg L(-1)). Conventional targeted measurements first demonstrated that chlorination with sodium hypochlorite (0.8 mg L(-1)) led to removals of ethinylestradiol over 97%. Then, the developed differential global profiling approach permitted to reveal eight chlorination by-products of EE2, six of them being described for the first time. Among these eight halogenated compounds, five have been structurally identified, demonstrating the potential capabilities of this new methodology applied to environmental samples. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating methane gas production in peat soils of the Florida Everglades using hydrogeophysical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, William; Comas, Xavier

2016-04-01

The spatial and temporal variability in production and release of greenhouse gases (such as methane) in peat soils remains uncertain, particularly for low-latitude peatlands like the Everglades. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is a hydrogeophysical tool that has been successfully used in the last decade to noninvasively investigate carbon dynamics in peat soils; however, application in subtropical systems is almost non-existent. This study is based on four field sites in the Florida Everglades, where changes in gas content within the soil are monitored using time-lapse GPR measurements and gas releases are monitored using gas traps. A weekly methane gas production rate is estimated using a mass balance approach, considering gas content estimated from GPR, gas release from gas traps and incorporating rates of diffusion, and methanotrophic consumption from previous studies. Resulting production rates range between 0.02 and 0.47 g CH4 m-2 d-1, falling within the range reported in literature. This study shows the potential of combining GPR with gas traps to monitor gas dynamics in peat soils of the Everglades and estimate methane gas production. We also show the enhanced ability of certain peat soils to store gas when compared to others, suggesting that physical properties control biogenic gas storage in the Everglades peat soils. Better understanding biogenic methane gas dynamics in peat soils has implications regarding the role of wetlands in the global carbon cycle, particularly under a climate change scenario.

Quantifying phytoplankton productivity and photoinhibition in the Ross Sea Polynya with large eddy simulation of Langmuir circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, Robyn L.; Akan, Cigdem; Tejada-Martínez, Andrés.; Neale, Patrick J.

2017-07-01

Southern Ocean phytoplankton assemblages acclimated to low-light environments that result from deep mixing are often sensitive to ultraviolet and high photosynthetically available radiation. In such assemblages, exposures to inhibitory irradiance near the surface result in loss of photosynthetic capacity that is not rapidly recovered and can depress photosynthesis after transport below depths penetrated by inhibitory irradiance. We used a coupled biophysical modeling approach to quantify the reduction in primary productivity due to photoinhibition based upon experiments and observations made during the spring bloom in Ross Sea Polynya (RSP). Large eddy simulation (LES) was used to generate depth trajectories representative of observed Langmuir circulation that were passed through an underwater light field to yield time series of spectral irradiance representative of what phytoplankton would have experienced in situ. These were used to drive an assemblage-specific photosynthesis-irradiance model with inhibition determined from a biological weighting function and repair rate estimated from shipboard experiments on the local assemblage. We estimate the daily depth-integrated productivity was 230 mmol C m-2. This estimate includes a 6-7% reduction in daily depth-integrated productivity over potential productivity (i.e., effects of photoinhibition excluded). When trajectory depths were fixed (no vertical transport), the reduction in productivity was nearly double. Relative to LES estimates, there was slightly less depth-integrated photoinhibition with random walk trajectories and nearly twice as much with circular rotations. This suggests it is important to account for turbulence when simulating the effects of vertical mixing on photoinhibition due to the kinetics of photodamage and repair.

Monitoring Crop Productivity over the U.S. Corn Belt using an Improved Light Use Efficiency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Xiao, X.; Zhang, Y.; Qin, Y.; Doughty, R.

2017-12-01

Large-scale monitoring of crop yield is of great significance for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring food security. Satellite data that provide temporally and spatially continuous information that by themselves or in combination with other data or models, raises possibilities to monitor and understand agricultural productivity regionally. In this study, we first used an improved light use efficiency model-Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate the gross primary production (GPP). Model evaluation showed that the simulated GPP (GPPVPM) could well captured the spatio-temporal variation of GPP derived from FLUXNET sites. Then we applied the GPPVPM to further monitor crop productivity for corn and soybean over the U.S. Corn Belt and benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics. We found VPM-based approach provides pretty good estimates (R2 = 0.88, slope = 1.03). We further showed the impacts of climate extremes on the crop productivity and carbon use efficiency. The study indicates the great potential of VPM in estimating crop yield and in understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Influence of Mesoscale Eddies on New Production in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy , Dennis J., Jr.; Robinson, A. R.; Siegel, D. A.; Jannasch, H. W.; Johnson, R.; Dickey, T. D.; McNeil, J.; Michaels, A. F.; Knap, A. H.

1998-01-01

It is problematic that geochemical estimates of new production - that fraction of total primary production in surface waters fueled by externally supplied nutrients - in oligotrophic waters of the open ocean surpass that which can be sustained by the traditionally accepted mechanisms of nutrient supply. In the case of the Sargasso Sea, for example, these mechanisms account for less than half of the annual nutrient requirement indicated by new production estimates based on three independent transient-tracer techniques. Specifically, approximately one-quarter to one-third of the annual nutrient requirement can be supplied by entrainment into the mixed layer during wintertime convection, with minor contributions from mixing in the thermocline and wind-driven transport (the potentially important role of nitrogen fixation - for which estimates vary by an order of magnitude in this region - is excluded from this budget). Here we present four lines of evidence - eddy-resolving model simulations, high-resolution observations from moored instrumentation, shipboard surveys, and satellite data - which suggest that the vertical flux of nutrients induced by the dynamics of mesoscale eddies is sufficient to balance the nutrient budget in the Sargasso Sea. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M., II; Yuan, W.; Dong, J.; Zhang, F.; Cai, W.; Li, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from twelve eddy covariance (EC) sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. The EC-LUE model explained 85.4% of the daily observed GPP variations through all of the twelve EC sites, and characterized very well the seasonal changes of GPP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature TA increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and PREC changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.

Exploring the relationship between irrigation water requirements and potential yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Huaxiu; Zhan, Jinyan; Deng, Xiangzheng; Ma, Jinsong

2007-11-01

By using the GIS technologies, we interpolate the site-based meteorological data into climatic surface data, which are the main input parameters for the CropWat model, used to estimate the reference evapotranspiration (ET 0). And then by combining the ET 0 with the information on share of cultivated land decoded from the Landsat TM/ETM digital imagines covering the entire case study area, the Huang-Huai-Hai plain, we estimate the amount of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) in the years of 1991 and 2000. We then introduce the potential yield (PY) of cultivated land estimated from the Estimation Model for the Agricultural Productivity Potential (EMAPP) to explore the relationship between the IWRs and the PY . By conducting GIS-based spatial overlay analyses, we explore the positive correlation relationship between the IWRs and the PY of cultivated land. Finally, we conclude that the IWRs is now a constrain factor on the PY of cultivated land in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain in those areas with the irrigation water constrains. The result has offered a scientific basis for the decision makings in the exploitation and utilization of resources and energy as well as the land use planning, protection of the potential yields and the managements of irrigation water at the regional level.

Economical Production of Pu-238: NIAC Phase I Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howe, Steven D.; Crawford, Douglas; Navarro, Jorge; O'Brien, Robert C.; Katalenich, Jeff; Ring, Terry

2016-01-01

All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238 (Pu-238). The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research (CSNR) has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. Potentially, the front end capital costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. In the Phase I NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. Finally, as the study progressed, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

2017-04-01

As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in 1993. We calculated production capacity on the basis of age and height; we then compared these to past climate conditions to discover connections between climate, site conditions, and production. We estimated future growth tendencies for three different time periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100). Results show that the most vulnerable region is the south-western part of Hungary where the projected production capacity may decrease by 26% for the time period 2071-2100. The impacts of climate change may be milder in the north-eastern part of Hungary where a 19% decrease in the production capacity of sessile oak forests is estimated. These investigations and results are important for sustainable forest management and help define climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Keywords: climate change impacts, distribution modelling, production capacity Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-3-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities and the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Global relation between microwave satellite vegetation products and vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teubner, Irene E.; Forkel, Matthias; Jung, Martin; Miralles, Diego G.; Dorigo, Wouter A.

2017-04-01

The occurrence of unfavourable environmental conditions like droughts commonly reduces the photosynthetic activity of ecosystems and, hence, their potential to take up carbon from the atmosphere. Ecosystem photosynthetic activity is commonly determined using remote sensing observations in the optical domain, which however have limitations particularly in regions of frequent cloud cover, e.g. the tropics. In this study, we explore the potential of vegetation optical depth (VOD) from microwave satellite observations as an alternative source for assessing vegetation productivity. VOD serves as an estimate for vegetation density and water content, which has an impact on plant physiological processes and hence should potentially provide a link to gross primary production (GPP). However, to date, it is unclear how microwave-retrieved VOD data and GPP data are related. We compare seasonal dynamics and anomalies of VOD retrievals from different satellite sensors and microwave frequencies with site level and global GPP estimates. We use VOD observations from active (ASCAT) and passive microwave sensors (AMSR-E, SMOS). We include eddy covariance measurements from the FLUXNET2015 dataset to assess the VOD products at site level. For a global scale analysis, we use the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) observations from GOME-2 as a proxy for GPP and the FLUXCOM GPP product, which presents an upscaling of site measurements based on remote sensing data. Our results demonstrate that in general a good agreement between VOD and GPP or SIF exists. However, the strength of these relations depends on the microwave frequency, land cover type, and the time within the growing season. Correlations between anomalies of VOD and GPP or SIF support the assumption that microwave-derived VOD can be used to monitor vegetation productivity dynamics. The study is performed as part of the EOWAVE project funded by the Vienna University of Technology (http://eowave.geo.tuwien.ac.at/) and the STR3S project funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) as part of the STEREO III programme.

Forecasting fish biomasses, densities, productions, and bioaccumulation potentials of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams

EPA Science Inventory

Regional fishery conditions of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams in the eastern United States are estimated using the BASS bioaccumulation and fish community model and data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)....

Health Risk Estimation for Unregulated DBPs in Chloraminated Drinking Water

EPA Science Inventory

Disinfection by-products (DBPs) are formed when natural organic matter (NOM) reacts with chemical oxidants in the water disinfection process. Halogenated DBPs are both cytotoxic and genotoxic, which have the potential to cause adverse health effects (1). Currently, 4 species of t...

Estimated winter wheat yield from crop growth predicted by LANDSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T.

1977-01-01

An evapotranspiration and growth model for winter wheat is reported. The inputs are daily solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation/irrigation and leaf area index. The meteorological data were obtained from National Weather Service while LAI was obtained from LANDSAT multispectral scanner. The output provides daily estimates of potential evapotranspiration, transpiration, evaporation, soil moisture (50 cm depth), percentage depletion, net photosynthesis and dry matter production. Winter wheat yields are correlated with transpiration and dry matter accumulation.

Woody biomass supply from thinnings to reduce fire hazard in the U.S. West and its potential impact on regional wood markets

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog; Peter J. Ince; Henry Spelter; Andi Kramp; R. James Barbour

2008-01-01

Part I of this paper identifies timberland areas in 12 western states where thinning treatments are judged to be needed to reduce fire hazard and may ?pay for themselves?? at a scale to make investment in forest product processing a realistic option. We also estimate amounts of biomass removed and costs of removal. Part II of this paper estimates the market impact if...

Supply of large woody debris in a stream channel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diehl, Timothy H.; Bryan, Bradley A.

1993-01-01

The amount of large woody debris that potentially could be transported to bridge sites was assessed in the basin of the West Harpeth River in Tennessee in the fall of 1992. The assessment was based on inspections of study sites at 12 bridges and examination of channel reaches between bridges. It involved estimating the amount of woody material at least 1.5 meters long, stored in the channel, and not rooted in soil. Study of multiple sites allowed estimation of the amount, characteristics, and sources of debris stored in the channel, and identification of geomorphic features of the channel associated with debris production. Woody debris is plentiful in the channel network, and much of the debris could be transported by a large flood. Tree trunks with attached root masses are the dominant large debris type. Death of these trees is primarily the result of bank erosion. Bank instability seems to be the basin characteristic most useful in identifying basins with a high potential for abundant production of debris.

Economic impacts of a California tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Adam; Wing, Ian Sue; Wei, Dan; Wein, Anne

2016-01-01

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reduce the direct and total impacts by 80–85%.

Assessing MODIS-based Products and Techniques for Detecting Gypsy Moth Defoliation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Smoot, James C.; Prados, Don; McKellip, Rodney; Sader, Steven A.; Gasser, Jerry; May, George

2008-01-01

The project showed potential of MODIS and VIIRS time series data for contributing defoliation detection products to the USFS forest threat early warning system. This study yielded the first satellite-based wall-to-wall 2001 gypsy moth defoliation map for the study area. Initial results led to follow-on work to map 2007 gypsy moth defoliation over the eastern United States (in progress). MODIS-based defoliation maps offer promise for aiding aerial sketch maps either in planning surveys and/or adjusting acreage estimates of annual defoliation. More work still needs to be done to assess potential of technology for "now casts"of defoliation.

Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

PubMed

Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

2012-01-01

Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

Breast and prostate cancer productivity costs: a comparison of the human capital approach and the friction cost approach.

PubMed

Hanly, Paul; Timmons, Aileen; Walsh, Paul M; Sharp, Linda

2012-05-01

Productivity costs constitute a substantial proportion of the total societal costs associated with cancer. We compared the results of applying two different analytical methods--the traditional human capital approach (HCA) and the emerging friction cost approach (FCA)--to estimate breast and prostate cancer productivity costs in Ireland in 2008. Data from a survey of breast and prostate cancer patients were combined with population-level survival estimates and a national wage data set to calculate costs of temporary disability (cancer-related work absence), permanent disability (workforce departure, reduced working hours), and premature mortality. For breast cancer, productivity costs per person using the HCA were € 193,425 and those per person using the FCA were € 8,103; for prostate cancer, the comparable estimates were € 109,154 and € 8,205, respectively. The HCA generated higher costs for younger patients (breast cancer) because of greater lifetime earning potential. In contrast, the FCA resulted in higher productivity costs for older male patients (prostate cancer) commensurate with higher earning capacity over a shorter time period. Reduced working hours postcancer was a key driver of total HCA productivity costs. HCA costs were sensitive to assumptions about discount and growth rates. FCA costs were sensitive to assumptions about the friction period. The magnitude of the estimates obtained in this study illustrates the importance of including productivity costs when considering the economic impact of illness. Vastly different results emerge from the application of the HCA and the FCA, and this finding emphasizes the importance of choosing the study perspective carefully and being explicit about assumptions that underpin the methods. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Greenhouse Gas and Soil Carbon Model for Estimating the Carbon Footprint of Livestock Production in Canada

PubMed Central

Vergé, Xavier P.C.; Dyer, James A.; Worth, Devon E.; Smith, Ward N.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; McConkey, Brian G.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary We developed a model to estimate the carbon footprint of Canadian livestock production. To include long term soil carbon storage and loss potential we introduced a payback period concept. The model was tested by reallocating 10% only of the protein production from a ruminant to a non ruminant source to minimize the risk of including rangeland or marginal lands. This displacement generated residual land which was found to play a major role in the potential mitigation of GHG emissions. The model will allow land use policies aimed at reducing the agricultural GHG emissions to be assessed. Abstract To assess tradeoffs between environmental sustainability and changes in food production on agricultural land in Canada the Unified Livestock Industry and Crop Emissions Estimation System (ULICEES) was developed. It incorporates four livestock specific GHG assessments in a single model. To demonstrate the application of ULICEES, 10% of beef cattle protein production was assumed to be displaced with an equivalent amount of pork protein. Without accounting for the loss of soil carbon, this 10% shift reduced GHG emissions by 2.5 TgCO2e y−1. The payback period was defined as the number of years required for a GHG reduction to equal soil carbon lost from the associated land use shift. A payback period that is shorter than 40 years represents a net long term decrease in GHG emissions. Displacing beef cattle with hogs resulted in a surplus area of forage. When this residual land was left in ungrazed perennial forage, the payback periods were less than 4 years and when it was reseeded to annual crops, they were equal to or less than 40 years. They were generally greater than 40 years when this land was used to raise cattle. Agricultural GHG mitigation policies will inevitably involve a trade-off between production, land use and GHG emission reduction. ULICEES is a model that can objectively assess these trade-offs for Canadian agriculture. PMID:26487032

Emission characteristics of VOCs emitted from consumer and commercial products and their ozone formation potential.

PubMed

Dinh, Trieu-Vuong; Kim, Su-Yeon; Son, Youn-Suk; Choi, In-Young; Park, Seong-Ryong; Sunwoo, Young; Kim, Jo-Chun

2015-06-01

The characteristics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from several consumer and commercial products (body wash, dishwashing detergent, air freshener, windshield washer fluid, lubricant, hair spray, and insecticide) were studied and compared. The spray products were found to emit the highest amount of VOCs (~96 wt%). In contrast, the body wash products showed the lowest VOC contents (~1.6 wt%). In the spray products, 21.6-96.4 % of the VOCs were propane, iso-butane, and n-butane, which are the components of liquefied petroleum gas. Monoterpene (C10H16) was the dominant component of the VOCs in the non-spray products (e.g., body wash, 53-88 %). In particular, methanol was present with the highest amount of VOCs in windshield washer fluid products. In terms of the number of carbon, the windshield washer fluids, lubricants, insecticides, and hair sprays comprised >95 % of the VOCs in the range C2-C5. The VOCs in the range C6-C10 were predominantly found in the body wash products. The dishwashing detergents and air fresheners contained diverse VOCs from C2 to C11. Besides comprising hazardous VOCs, VOCs from consumer products were also ozone precursors. The ozone formation potential of the consumer and commercial spray products was estimated to be higher than those of liquid and gel materials. In particular, the hair sprays showed the highest ozone formation potential.

A hyperspectral approach to estimating biomass and plant production in a heterogeneous restored temperate peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Schile, L. M.; Windham-Myers, L.; Kelly, M.; Hatala, J.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2012-12-01

Restoration of drained peatlands that are managed to reverse subsidence through organic accretion holds significant potential for large-scale carbon storage and sequestration. This potential has been demonstrated in an experimental wetland restoration site established by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1997 on Twitchell Island in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, where soil carbon storage is up to 1 kg C m-2 and root and rhizome production can reach over 7 kg m-2 annually. Remote sensing-based estimation of biomass and productivity over a large spatial extent helps to monitor carbon storage potential of these restored peatlands. Extensive field measurements of plant biophysical characteristics such as biomass, leaf area index, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) [an important variable in light-use efficiency (LUE) models] have been collected for agricultural systems and forests. However the small size and local spatial variability of U.S. Pacific Coast wetlands pose new challenges for measuring these variables in the field and generating estimates through remote sensing. In particular background effects of non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), floating aquatic vegetation, and inundation of wetland vegetation influence the relationship between field measurements and multispectral or hyperspectral indices. Working at the USGS experimental wetland site, characterized by variable water depth and substantial NPV, or thatch, we collected field data on hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus) and cattail (Typha spp.) coupled with reflectance data from a field spectrometer (350-2500 nm) every two to three weeks during the summers of 2011 and 2012. We calculated aboveground biomass with existing allometric relationships, and fAPAR was measured with line and point quantum sensors. We analyzed reflectance data to develop hyperspectral and multispectral indices that predict biomass and fAPAR and account for background effects of water inundation and NPV. fAPAR values were combined with GPP estimates at the field scale from eddy correlation flux measurements to develop a LUE model of plant production. To compare the effectiveness of broadband vs. narrowband indices in predicting biomass and fAPAR, we simulated eight multispectral World View-2 (WV-2) bands and 164 hyperspectral Hyperion bands with the field spectroradiometer data. We calculated NDVI-type two band vegetation indices (TBVI) using all possible band combinations, with a total of 28 WV-2 indices and 13,366 Hyperion indices. Biomass estimation was affected by water depth; regression of cattail biomass to TBVI680,910 produced a R2 that was 47% higher (R2 = 0.53) when water levels were under 50 cm compared to when water levels were over 50 cm (R2 = 0.28). fAPAR estimation was affected by the density of NPV; regression of fAPAR to TBVI539,1114 when PARtransmitted was measured above thatch was 49% higher (R2 = 0.50) than when PARtransmitted was measured below thatch (R2 = 0.20, TBVI1286,1266). Accounting for background effects in this heterogeneous environment will aid in the development of robust indices that can be applied to other wetland sites for estimates of carbon storage potential across large extents.

A preliminary evaluation of vertical separation between production intervals of coalbed-methane wells and water-supply wells in the Raton basin, Huerfano and Las Animas Counties, Colorado, 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Kenneth R.

2006-01-01

The Raton Basin in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico is undergoing increased development of its coalbed-methane resources. Annual production of methane from coalbeds in the Raton Basin in Huerfano and Las Animas Counties, Colorado, increased from about 28,000,000 thousand cubic feet from 478 wells to about 80,000,000 thousand cubic feet from 1,543 wells, during 1999-2004. Annual ground-water withdrawals for coalbed-methane production increased from about 1.45 billion gallons from 480 wells to about 3.64 billion gallons from 1,568 wells, during 1999-2004. Where the coalbeds are deeply buried near the center of the Raton Basin, water pressure may be reduced as much as 250 to 300 pounds per square inch to produce the methane from the coalbeds, which is equivalent to a 577- to 692-foot lowering of water level. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, began an evaluation of the potential effects of coalbed- methane production on the availability and sustainability of ground-water resources. In 2003, there were an estimated 1,370 water-supply wells in the Raton Basin in Colorado, and about 90 percent of these water-supply wells were less than 450 feet deep. The tops of the production (perforated) interval of 90 percent of the coalbed-methane wells in the Raton Basin (for which data were available) are deeper than about 675 feet. The potential for interference of coalbed-methane wells with nearby water-supply wells likely is limited because in most areas their respective production intervals are separated by more than a hundred to a few thousand feet of rock. The estimated vertical separation between production intervals of coalbed-methane and water-supply wells is less than 100 feet in an area about 1 to 6 miles west and southwest of Trinidad Lake and a few other isolated areas. It is assumed that in areas with less than 100 feet of vertical separation, production by coalbed-methane wells has a greater potential for interfering with nearby water-supply wells. More detailed geologic and hydrologic information is needed in these areas to quantify the potential effects of coalbed-methane production on water levels and the availability and sustainability of ground-water resources.

Evaluation and intercomparison of GPM-IMERG and TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation products over Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazamias, A. P.; Sapountzis, M.; Lagouvardos, K.

2017-09-01

Accurate precipitation data at high temporal and spatial resolutions are needed for numerous applications in hydrology, water resources management and flood risk management. Satellite-based precipitation estimations/products offer a potential alternative source of rainfall data for regions with sparse rain gauge network. The recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is the successor of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) providing global precipitation estimates at spatial resolution of 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree and half-hourly temporal resolution. This study aims at evaluating the accuracy of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) near-real-time daily product (GPM-3IMERGDL) against rain gauge observations from a network of stations distributed across Greece for the year 2016. Moreover, the GPM-IMERG product is also compared with its predecessor, the Version-7 near-real-time (3B42RT) daily product of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Several statistical metrics are used to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the satellite-based precipitation estimates against rain gauge observations. In addition, categorical statistical indices are used to assess rain detection capabilities of the two satellite products. The GPM-IMERG daily product shows reasonable agreement (CC=0.60) against rain gauge observations, with the exception of coastal areas in which low correlations are achieved. The GPM-IMERG daily precipitation product tends to overestimate rainfall, especially in complex terrain areas with high annual precipitation. In particular, rainfall estimates in western Greece have a strong positive bias. On the other hand, the TRMM 3B42 product shows low correlation (CC=0.45) against rain gauge observations and slightly underestimates rainfall. This study is a first attempt to evaluate and compare the newly introduced GPM-IMERG and the TRMM 3B42 rainfall products at daily timescale over Greece.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

2001 and 2003. d. The estimated trend in the ratio of output to hours worked in the nonfarm business sector . Total, Total, 1950- 1974- 1982- 1991...Potential Labor Productivity in the Nonfarm Business Sectord Overall Economy Nonfarm Business Sector TFP adjustments Contributions to the Growth of...on CBO’s Baseline Budget Projections 123D-1. Relationship of the Budget to the Federal Sector of the National Income and Product Accounts 128D-2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Chemical supply chain modeling for analysis of homeland security events

DOE PAGES

Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Pepple, Mark A.; ...

2013-09-06

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operationsmore » (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.« less

Using GIS mapping of the extent of nearshore rocky reefs to estimate the abundance and reproductive output of important fishery species.

PubMed

Claisse, Jeremy T; Pondella, Daniel J; Williams, Jonathan P; Sadd, James

2012-01-01

Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941 thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized.

Using GIS Mapping of the Extent of Nearshore Rocky Reefs to Estimate the Abundance and Reproductive Output of Important Fishery Species

PubMed Central

Claisse, Jeremy T.; Pondella, Daniel J.; Williams, Jonathan P.; Sadd, James

2012-01-01

Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized. PMID:22272326

A Machine Learning-based Rainfall System for GPM Dual-frequency Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, H.; Chandrasekar, V.; Chen, H.

2017-12-01

Precipitation measurement produced by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) plays an important role in researching the water circle and forecasting extreme weather event. Compare with its predecessor - Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR), GRM DPR measures precipitation in two different frequencies (i.e., Ku and Ka band), which can provide detailed information on the microphysical properties of precipitation particles, quantify particle size distribution and quantitatively measure light rain and falling snow. This paper presents a novel Machine Learning system for ground-based and space borne radar rainfall estimation. The system first trains ground radar data for rainfall estimation using rainfall measurements from gauges and subsequently uses the ground radar based rainfall estimates to train GPM DPR data in order to get space based rainfall product. Therein, data alignment between space DPR and ground radar is conducted using the methodology proposed by Bolen and Chandrasekar (2013), which can minimize the effects of potential geometric distortion of GPM DPR observations. For demonstration purposes, rainfall measurements from three rain gauge networks near Melbourne, Florida, are used for training and validation purposes. These three gauge networks, which are located in Kennedy Space Center (KSC), South Florida Water Management District (SFL), and St. Johns Water Management District (STJ), include 33, 46, and 99 rain gauge stations, respectively. Collocated ground radar observations from the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Melbourne (i.e., KMLB radar) are trained with the gauge measurements. The trained model is then used to derive KMLB radar based rainfall product, which is used to train GPM DPR data collected from coincident overpasses events. The machine learning based rainfall product is compared against the GPM standard products, which shows great potential of the machine learning concept in radar rainfall estimation.

A New Method for Near Real Time Precipitation Estimates Using a Derived Statistical Relationship between Precipitable Water Vapor and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, J.

2015-12-01

The IPCC 5th Assessment found that the predicted warming of 1oC would increase the risk of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods. Weather extremes, like floods, have shown the vulnerability and susceptibility society has to these extreme weather events, through impacts such as disruption of food production, water supply, health, and damage of infrastructure. This paper examines a new way of near-real time forecasting of precipitation. A 10-year statistical climatological relationship was derived between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and precipitation by using the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder daily gridded PWV product and the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission daily gridded precipitation total. Forecasting precipitation estimates in real time is dire for flood monitoring and disaster management. Near real time PWV observations from AIRS on Aqua are available through the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center. In addition, PWV observations are available through direct broadcast from the NASA Suomi-NPP ATMS/CrIS instrument, the operational follow on to AIRS. The derived climatological relationship can be applied to create precipitation estimates in near real time by utilizing the direct broadcasting capabilities currently available in the CONUS region. The application of this relationship will be characterized through case-studies by using near real-time NASA AIRS Science Team v6 PWV products and ground-based SuomiNet GPS to estimate the current precipitation potential; the max amount of precipitation that can occur based on the moisture availability. Furthermore, the potential contribution of using the direct broadcasting of the NUCAPS ATMS/CrIS PWV products will be demonstrated. The analysis will highlight the advantages of applying this relationship in near-real time for flash flood monitoring and risk management. Relevance to the NWS River Forecast Centers will be discussed.

Aortic stiffness and the balance between cardiac oxygen supply and demand: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Guelen, Ilja; Mattace-Raso, Francesco Us; van Popele, Nicole M; Westerhof, Berend E; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline Cm; Bos, Willem Jan W

2008-06-01

Aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether aortic stiffness, estimated as aortic pulse wave velocity, is associated with decreased perfusion pressure estimated as the cardiac oxygen supply potential. Aortic stiffness and aortic pressure waves, reconstructed from finger blood pressure waves, were obtained in 2490 older adults within the framework of the Rotterdam Study, a large population-based study. Cardiac oxygen supply and demand were estimated using pulse wave analysis techniques, and related to aortic stiffness by linear regression analyses after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure and heart rate. Cardiac oxygen demand, estimated as the Systolic Pressure Time Index and the Rate Pressure Product, increased with increasing aortic stiffness [0.27 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: 0.21; 0.34)] and [42.2 mmHg/min (95% confidence interval: 34.1; 50.3)], respectively. Cardiac oxygen supply potential estimated as the Diastolic Pressure Time Index decreased [-0.70 mmHg s (95% confidence interval: -0.86; -0.54)] with aortic stiffening. Accordingly, the supply/demand ratio Diastolic Pressure Time Index/Systolic Pressure Time Index -1.11 (95% confidence interval: -0.14; -0.009) decreased with increasing aortic stiffness. Aortic stiffness is associated with estimates of increased cardiac oxygen demand and a decreased cardiac oxygen supply potential. These results may offer additional explanation for the relation between aortic stiffness and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Estimating Per-Pixel GPP of the Contiguous USA Directly from MODIS EVI Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, A. F.; Sims, D. A.; El-Masri, B. Z.; Cordova, V. D.

2005-12-01

We estimated gross primary production (GPP) of the contiguous USA using enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data from NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). Based on recently published values of correlation coefficients between EVI and GPP of North American vegetations, we derived GPP maps of the contiguous USA for 2001-2004, which included one La Nina year and three moderately El Nino years. The product was a truly per-pixel GPP estimate (named E-GPP), in contrast to the pseudo-continuous MOD17, the standard MODIS GPP product. We compared E-GPP with fine-scale experimental GPP data and MOD17 estimates from three Bigfoot experimental sites, and also with MOD17 estimates from the whole contiguous USA for the above-mentioned four years. For each of the '7 by 7' km Bigfoot experimental sites, E-GPP was able to track the primary production activity during the green-up period while MOD17 failed to do so. The E-GPP estimates during peak production season were similar to those from Bigfoot and MOD17 for most vegetation types except for the deciduous types, where it was lower. Annual E-GPP of the Bigfoot sites compared well with Bigfoot experimental GPP (r = 0.71) and MOD17 (r = 0.78). But for the contiguous USA for 2001-2004, annual E-GPP showed disagreement with MOD17 in both magnitude and seasonal trends for deciduous forests and grass lands. In this study we explored the reasons for this mismatch between E-GPP and MOD17 and also analyzed the uncertainties in E-GPP across multiple spatial scales. Our results show that the E-GPP, based on a simple regression model, can work as a robust alternative to MOD17 for large-area annual GPP estimation. The relative advantages of E-GPP are that it is truly per-pixel, solely dependent on remotely sensed data that is routinely available from NASA, easy to compute and has the potential of being used as an operational product.

Predicting plankton net community production in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Fernández, Emilio; Teira, Eva; Tilstone, Gavin; Pérez, Valesca

2009-07-01

We present, test and implement two contrasting models to predict euphotic zone net community production (NCP), which are based on 14C primary production (PO 14CP) to NCP relationships over two latitudinal (ca. 30°S-45°N) transects traversing highly productive and oligotrophic provinces of the Atlantic Ocean (NADR, CNRY, BENG, NAST-E, ETRA and SATL, Longhurst et al., 1995 [An estimation of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. Journal of Plankton Research 17, 1245-1271]). The two models include similar ranges of PO 14CP and community structure, but differ in the relative influence of allochthonous organic matter in the oligotrophic provinces. Both models were used to predict NCP from PO 14CP measurements obtained during 11 local and three seasonal studies in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and from satellite-derived estimates of PO 14CP. Comparison of these NCP predictions with concurrent in situ measurements and geochemical estimates of NCP showed that geographic and annual patterns of NCP can only be predicted when the relative trophic importance of local vs. distant processes is similar in both modeled and predicted ecosystems. The system-dependent ability of our models to predict NCP seasonality suggests that trophic-level dynamics are stronger than differences in hydrodynamic regime, taxonomic composition and phytoplankton growth. The regional differences in the predictive power of both models confirm the existence of biogeographic differences in the scale of trophic dynamics, which impede the use of a single generalized equation to estimate global marine plankton NCP. This paper shows the potential of a systematic empirical approach to predict plankton NCP from local and satellite-derived P estimates.

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Assessing gaps in irrigated agricultural productivity through satellite earth observations-A case study of the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löw, Fabian; Biradar, Chandrashekhar; Fliemann, Elisabeth; Lamers, John P. A.; Conrad, Christopher

2017-07-01

Improving crop area and/or crop yields in agricultural regions is one of the foremost scientific challenges for the next decades. This is especially true in irrigated areas because sustainable intensification of irrigated crop production is virtually the sole means to enhance food supply and contribute to meeting food demands of a growing population. Yet, irrigated crop production worldwide is suffering from soil degradation and salinity, reduced soil fertility, and water scarcity rendering the performance of irrigation schemes often below potential. On the other hand, the scope for improving irrigated agricultural productivity remains obscure also due to the lack of spatial data on agricultural production (e.g. crop acreage and yield). To fill this gap, satellite earth observations and a replicable methodology were used to estimate crop yields at the field level for the period 2010/2014 in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia, to understand the response of agricultural productivity to factors related to the irrigation and drainage infrastructure and environment. The results showed that cropping pattern, i.e. the presence or absence of multi-annual crop rotations, and spatial diversity of crops had the most persistent effects on crop yields across observation years suggesting the need for introducing sustainable cropping systems. On the other hand, areas with a lower crop diversity or abundance of crop rotation tended to have lower crop yields, with differences of partly more than one t/ha yield. It is argued that factors related to the infrastructure, for example, the distance of farms to the next settlement or the density of roads, had a persistent effect on crop yield dynamics over time. The improvement potential of cotton and wheat yields were estimated at 5%, compared to crop yields of farms in the direct vicinity of settlements or roads. In this study it is highlighted how remotely sensed estimates of crop production in combination with geospatial technologies provide a unique perspective that, when combined with field surveys, can support planners to identify management priorities for improving regional production and/or reducing environmental impacts.

Consumer exposure to biocides--identification of relevant sources and evaluation of possible health effects.

PubMed

Hahn, Stefan; Schneider, Klaus; Gartiser, Stefan; Heger, Wolfgang; Mangelsdorf, Inge

2010-02-03

Products containing biocides are used for a variety of purposes in the home environment. To assess potential health risks, data on products containing biocides were gathered by means of a market survey, exposures were estimated using a worst case scenario approach (screening), the hazard of the active components were evaluated, and a preliminary risk assessment was conducted. Information on biocide-containing products was collected by on-site research, by an internet inquiry as well as research into databases and lists of active substances. Twenty active substances were selected for detailed investigation. The products containing these substances were subsequently classified by range of application; typical concentrations were derived. Potential exposures were then estimated using a worst case scenario approach according to the European Commission's Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment. Relevant combinations of scenarios and active substances were identified. The toxicological data for these substances were compiled in substance dossiers. For estimating risks, the margins of exposure (MOEs) were determined. Numerous consumer products were found to contain biocides. However, it appeared that only a limited number of biocidal active substances or groups of biocidal active substances were being used. The lowest MOEs for dermal exposure or exposure by inhalation were obtained for the following scenarios and biocides: indoor pest control using sprays, stickers or evaporators (chlorpyrifos, dichlorvos) and spraying of disinfectants as well as cleaning of surfaces with concentrates (hydrogen peroxide, formaldehyde, glutardialdehyde). The risk from aggregate exposure to individual biocides via different exposure scenarios was higher than the highest single exposure on average by a factor of three. From the 20 biocides assessed 10 had skin-sensitizing properties. The biocides isothiazolinone (mixture of 5-chloro-2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one and 2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one, CMI/MI), glutardialdehyde, formaldehyde and chloroacetamide may be present in household products in concentrations which have induced sensitization in experimental studies. Exposure to biocides from household products may contribute to induction of sensitization in the population. The use of biocides in consumer products should be carefully evaluated. Detailed risk assessments will become available within the framework of the EU Biocides Directive.

Consumer exposure to biocides - identification of relevant sources and evaluation of possible health effects

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Products containing biocides are used for a variety of purposes in the home environment. To assess potential health risks, data on products containing biocides were gathered by means of a market survey, exposures were estimated using a worst case scenario approach (screening), the hazard of the active components were evaluated, and a preliminary risk assessment was conducted. Methods Information on biocide-containing products was collected by on-site research, by an internet inquiry as well as research into databases and lists of active substances. Twenty active substances were selected for detailed investigation. The products containing these substances were subsequently classified by range of application; typical concentrations were derived. Potential exposures were then estimated using a worst case scenario approach according to the European Commission's Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment. Relevant combinations of scenarios and active substances were identified. The toxicological data for these substances were compiled in substance dossiers. For estimating risks, the margins of exposure (MOEs) were determined. Results Numerous consumer products were found to contain biocides. However, it appeared that only a limited number of biocidal active substances or groups of biocidal active substances were being used. The lowest MOEs for dermal exposure or exposure by inhalation were obtained for the following scenarios and biocides: indoor pest control using sprays, stickers or evaporators (chlorpyrifos, dichlorvos) and spraying of disinfectants as well as cleaning of surfaces with concentrates (hydrogen peroxide, formaldehyde, glutardialdehyde). The risk from aggregate exposure to individual biocides via different exposure scenarios was higher than the highest single exposure on average by a factor of three. From the 20 biocides assessed 10 had skin-sensitizing properties. The biocides isothiazolinone (mixture of 5-chloro-2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one and 2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one, CMI/MI), glutardialdehyde, formaldehyde and chloroacetamide may be present in household products in concentrations which have induced sensitization in experimental studies. Conclusions Exposure to biocides from household products may contribute to induction of sensitization in the population. The use of biocides in consumer products should be carefully evaluated. Detailed risk assessments will become available within the framework of the EU Biocides Directive. PMID:20128903

Emission of atmospherically significant halocarbons by naturally occurring and farmed tropical macroalgae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leedham, E. C.; Hughes, C.; Keng, F. S. L.; Phang, S.-M.; Malin, G.; Sturges, W. T.

2013-06-01

Current estimates of global halocarbon emissions highlight the tropical coastal environment as an important source of very short-lived (VSL) biogenic halocarbons to the troposphere and stratosphere, due to a combination of assumed high primary productivity in tropical coastal waters and the prevalence of deep convective transport, potentially capable of rapidly lifting surface emissions to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. However, despite this perceived importance, direct measurements of tropical coastal biogenic halocarbon emissions, notably from macroalgae (seaweeds), have not been made. In light of this, we provide the first dedicated study of halocarbon production by a range of 15 common tropical macroalgal species and compare these results to those from previous studies of polar and temperate macroalgae. Variation between species was substantial; CHBr3 production rates, measured at the end of a 24 h incubation, varied from 1.4 to 1129 pmol g FW-1 h-1 (FW = fresh weight of sample). We used our laboratory-determined emission rates to estimate emissions of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 (the two dominant VSL precursors of stratospheric bromine) from the coastlines of Malaysia and elsewhere in South East Asia (SEA). We compare these values to previous top-down model estimates of emissions from these regions and, by using several emission scenarios, we calculate an annual CHBr3 emission of 40 (6-224 Mmol Br-1 yr), a value that is lower than previous estimates. The contribution of tropical aquaculture to current emission budgets is also considered. Whilst the current aquaculture contribution to halocarbon emissions in this regional is small, the potential exists for substantial increases in aquaculture to make a significant contribution to regional halocarbon budgets.

Carbon sequestration potential of soils in southeast Germany derived from stable soil organic carbon saturation.

PubMed

Wiesmeier, Martin; Hübner, Rico; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Reischl, Arthur; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

2014-02-01

Sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in soils through improved management of forest and agricultural land is considered to have high potential for global CO2 mitigation. However, the potential of soils to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) in a stable form, which is limited by the stabilization of SOC against microbial mineralization, is largely unknown. In this study, we estimated the C sequestration potential of soils in southeast Germany by calculating the potential SOC saturation of silt and clay particles according to Hassink [Plant and Soil 191 (1997) 77] on the basis of 516 soil profiles. The determination of the current SOC content of silt and clay fractions for major soil units and land uses allowed an estimation of the C saturation deficit corresponding to the long-term C sequestration potential. The results showed that cropland soils have a low level of C saturation of around 50% and could store considerable amounts of additional SOC. A relatively high C sequestration potential was also determined for grassland soils. In contrast, forest soils had a low C sequestration potential as they were almost C saturated. A high proportion of sites with a high degree of apparent oversaturation revealed that in acidic, coarse-textured soils the relation to silt and clay is not suitable to estimate the stable C saturation. A strong correlation of the C saturation deficit with temperature and precipitation allowed a spatial estimation of the C sequestration potential for Bavaria. In total, about 395 Mt CO2 -equivalents could theoretically be stored in A horizons of cultivated soils - four times the annual emission of greenhouse gases in Bavaria. Although achieving the entire estimated C storage capacity is unrealistic, improved management of cultivated land could contribute significantly to CO2 mitigation. Moreover, increasing SOC stocks have additional benefits with respect to enhanced soil fertility and agricultural productivity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Methanol production from Eucalyptus wood chips. Working Document 9. Economics of producing methanol from Eucalyptus in Central Florida

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fishkind, H.H.

1982-06-01

A detailed feasibility study of producing methanol from Eucalyptus in Central Florida encompasses all phases of production - from seedling to delivery of finished methanol. The project includes the following components: (1) production of 55 million, high quality, Eucalyptus seedlings through tissue culture; (2) establishment of a Eucalyptus energy plantation on approximately 70,000 acres; and (3) engineering for a 100 million gallon-per-year methanol production facility. In addition, the potential environmental impacts of the whole project were examined, safety and health aspects of producing and using methanol were analyzed, and site specific cost estimates were made. The economics of the projectmore » are presented here. Each of the three major components of the project - tissue culture lab, energy plantation, and methanol refinery - are examined individually. In each case a site specific analysis of the potential return on investment was conducted.« less

Historical U.S. cropland areas and the potential for bioenergy production on abandoned croplands.

PubMed

Zumkehr, A; Campbell, J E

2013-04-16

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

Techniques and methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys in Great Lakes tributaries, 1995 to 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Christie, Gavin C.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Fodale, Michael F.; Heinrich, John W.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Weise, Jerry G.; Weisser, John W.; Young, Robert J.

2003-01-01

Before 1995, Great Lakes streams were selected for lampricide treatment based primarily on qualitative measures of the relative abundance of larval sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus. New integrated pest management approaches required standardized quantitative measures of sea lamprey. This paper evaluates historical larval assessment techniques and data and describes how new standardized methods for estimating abundance of larval and metamorphosed sea lampreys were developed and implemented. These new methods have been used to estimate larval and metamorphosed sea lamprey abundance in about 100 Great Lakes streams annually and to rank them for lampricide treatment since 1995. Implementation of these methods has provided a quantitative means of selecting streams for treatment based on treatment cost and estimated production of metamorphosed sea lampreys, provided managers with a tool to estimate potential recruitment of sea lampreys to the Great Lakes and the ability to measure the potential consequences of not treating streams, resulting in a more justifiable allocation of resources. The empirical data produced can also be used to simulate the impacts of various control scenarios.

The production and global distribution of emissions of trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene and dichloromethane over the period 1988-1992

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCulloch, Archie; Midgley, Pauline M.

Emissions of trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene and dichloromethane have been estimated from audited production and sales data provided by members of trade associations in U.S.A., Japan and Europe. Together with an estimate of production and use in the former centrally planned economies, these comprise global data. In addition to the annual information, monthly data were collected for one compound: dichloromethane. These showed that there was no significant seasonal component to the emissions, either globally or when they were subdivided into regions or categories of end use. It is assumed that the other solvents show similar behaviour. The emissions were estimated in six geographical regions: North America, Europe, the Far East, the Northern Hemisphere tropics, the rest of the Northern Hemisphere and the whole of the Southern Hemisphere. Atmospheric concentrations calculated from the emissions of tetrachloroethene and dichloromethane are broadly consistent with observations, with some interesting differences which merit further investigation of potential additional sources and sinks. On the other hand, the calculated atmospheric concentration of trichloroethene is very much less than that observed, suggesting a significant additional global source of this compound.

Life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well.

PubMed

Jiang, Mohan; Hendrickson, Chris T; VanBriesen, Jeanne M

2014-01-01

This study estimates the life cycle water consumption and wastewater generation impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well from its construction to end of life. Direct water consumption at the well site was assessed by analysis of data from approximately 500 individual well completion reports collected in 2010 by the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Indirect water consumption for supply chain production at each life cycle stage of the well was estimated using the economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) method. Life cycle direct and indirect water quality pollution impacts were assessed and compared using the tool for the reduction and assessment of chemical and other environmental impacts (TRACI). Wastewater treatment cost was proposed as an additional indicator for water quality pollution impacts from shale gas well wastewater. Four water management scenarios for Marcellus shale well wastewater were assessed: current conditions in Pennsylvania; complete discharge; direct reuse and desalination; and complete desalination. The results show that under the current conditions, an average Marcellus shale gas well consumes 20,000 m(3) (with a range from 6700 to 33,000 m(3)) of freshwater per well over its life cycle excluding final gas utilization, with 65% direct water consumption at the well site and 35% indirect water consumption across the supply chain production. If all flowback and produced water is released into the environment without treatment, direct wastewater from a Marcellus shale gas well is estimated to have 300-3000 kg N-eq eutrophication potential, 900-23,000 kg 2,4D-eq freshwater ecotoxicity potential, 0-370 kg benzene-eq carcinogenic potential, and 2800-71,000 MT toluene-eq noncarcinogenic potential. The potential toxicity of the chemicals in the wastewater from the well site exceeds those associated with supply chain production, except for carcinogenic effects. If all the Marcellus shale well wastewater is treated to surface discharge standards by desalination, $59,000-270,000 per well would be required. The life cycle study results indicate that when gas end use is not considered hydraulic fracturing is the largest contributor to the life cycle water impacts of a Marcellus shale gas well.

A technique for estimating seed production of common moist soil plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laubhan, Murray K.

1992-01-01

Seeds of native herbaceous vegetation adapted to germination in hydric soils (i.e., moist-soil plants) provide waterfowl with nutritional resources including essential amino acids, vitamins, and minerals that occur only in small amounts or are absent in other foods. These elements are essential for waterfowl to successfully complete aspects of the annual cycle such as molt and reproduction. Moist-soil vegetation also has the advantages of consistent production of foods across years with varying water availability, low management costs, high tolerance to diverse environmental conditions, and low deterioration rates of seeds after flooding. The amount of seed produced differs among plant species and varies annually depending on environmental conditions and management practices. Further, many moist-soil impoundments contain diverse vegetation, and seed production by a particular plant species usually is not uniform across an entire unit. Consequently, estimating total seed production within an impoundment is extremely difficult. The chemical composition of seeds also varies among plant species. For example, beggartick seeds contain high amounts of protein but only an intermediate amount of minerals. In contrast, barnyardgrass is a good source of minerals but is low in protein. Because of these differences, it is necessary to know the amount of seed produced by each plant species if the nutritional resources provided in an impoundment are to be estimated. The following technique for estimating seed production takes into account the variation resulting from different environmental conditions and management practices as well as differences in the amount of seed produced by various plant species. The technique was developed to provide resource managers with the ability to make quick and reliable estimates of seed production. Although on-site information must be collected, the amount of field time required is small (i.e., about 1 min per sample); sampling normally is accomplished on an area within a few days. Estimates of seed production derived with this technique are used, in combination with other available information, to determine the potential number of waterfowl use-days available and to evaluate the effects of various management strategies on a particular site.

POLLUTION FROM THE COMBINED ACTIVITIES, ACTIONS, AND BEHAVIORS OF THE PUBLIC: PHARMACEUTICALS AND PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's four-fold objectives in its efforts have been to: (i) Identify potential (future) environmental concerns (anticipatory research and identification of emerging issues, especially to identify pivotal sources of uncertainty that might affect risk estimates), (ii) Be proactive ...

Methods for Estimating Water Withdrawals for Mining in the United States, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelace, John K.

2009-01-01

The mining water-use category includes groundwater and surface water that is withdrawn and used for nonfuels and fuels mining. Nonfuels mining includes the extraction of ores, stone, sand, and gravel. Fuels mining includes the extraction of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Water is used for mineral extraction, quarrying, milling, and other operations directly associated with mining activities. For petroleum and natural gas extraction, water often is injected for secondary oil or gas recovery. Estimates of water withdrawals for mining are needed for water planning and management. This report documents methods used to estimate withdrawals of fresh and saline groundwater and surface water for mining during 2005 for each county and county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Fresh and saline groundwater and surface-water withdrawals during 2005 for nonfuels- and coal-mining operations in each county or county equivalent in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands were estimated. Fresh and saline groundwater withdrawals for oil and gas operations in counties of six states also were estimated. Water withdrawals for nonfuels and coal mining were estimated by using mine-production data and water-use coefficients. Production data for nonfuels mining included the mine location and weight (in metric tons) of crude ore, rock, or mineral produced at each mine in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during 2004. Production data for coal mining included the weight, in metric tons, of coal produced in each county or county equivalent during 2004. Water-use coefficients for mined commodities were compiled from various sources including published reports and written communications from U.S. Geological Survey National Water-use Information Program (NWUIP) personnel in several states. Water withdrawals for oil and gas extraction were estimated for six States including California, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming, by using data from State agencies that regulate oil and gas extraction. Total water withdrawals for mining in a county were estimated by summing estimated water withdrawals for nonfuels mining, coal mining, and oil and gas extraction. The results of this study were distributed to NWUIP personnel in each State during 2007. NWUIP personnel were required to submit estimated withdrawals for numerous categories of use in their States to a national compilation team for inclusion in a national report describing water use in the United States during 2005. NWUIP personnel had the option of submitting the estimates determined by using the methods described in this report, a modified version of these estimates, or their own set of estimates or reported data. Estimated withdrawals resulting from the methods described in this report may not be included in the national report; therefore the estimates are not presented herein in order to avoid potential inconsistencies with the national report. Water-use coefficients for specific minerals also are not presented to avoid potential disclosure of confidential production data provided by mining operations to the U.S. Geological Survey.

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals.« less

Deriving temporally continuous soil moisture estimations at fine resolution by downscaling remotely sensed product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yan; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jianghao; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.

2018-06-01

Land surface soil moisture (SSM) has important roles in the energy balance of the land surface and in the water cycle. Downscaling of coarse-resolution SSM remote sensing products is an efficient way for producing fine-resolution data. However, the downscaling methods used most widely require full-coverage visible/infrared satellite data as ancillary information. These methods are restricted to cloud-free days, making them unsuitable for continuous monitoring. The purpose of this study is to overcome this limitation to obtain temporally continuous fine-resolution SSM estimations. The local spatial heterogeneities of SSM and multiscale ancillary variables were considered in the downscaling process both to solve the problem of the strong variability of SSM and to benefit from the fusion of ancillary information. The generation of continuous downscaled remote sensing data was achieved via two principal steps. For cloud-free days, a stepwise hybrid geostatistical downscaling approach, based on geographically weighted area-to-area regression kriging (GWATARK), was employed by combining multiscale ancillary variables with passive microwave remote sensing data. Then, the GWATARK-estimated SSM and China Soil Moisture Dataset from Microwave Data Assimilation SSM data were combined to estimate fine-resolution data for cloudy days. The developed methodology was validated by application to the 25-km resolution daily AMSR-E SSM product to produce continuous SSM estimations at 1-km resolution over the Tibetan Plateau. In comparison with ground-based observations, the downscaled estimations showed correlation (R ≥ 0.7) for both ascending and descending overpasses. The analysis indicated the high potential of the proposed approach for producing a temporally continuous SSM product at fine spatial resolution.

Estimating the cost of blood: past, present, and future directions.

PubMed

Shander, Aryeh; Hofmann, Axel; Gombotz, Hans; Theusinger, Oliver M; Spahn, Donat R

2007-06-01

Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

Probiotics and prebiotics--perspectives and challenges.

PubMed

Figueroa-González, Ivonne; Quijano, Guillermo; Ramírez, Gerardo; Cruz-Guerrero, Alma

2011-06-01

Owing to their health benefits, probiotics and prebiotics are nowadays widely used in yogurts and fermented milks, which are leader products of functional foods worldwide. The world market for functional foods has grown rapidly in the last three decades, with an estimated size in 2003 of ca US$ 33 billion, while the European market estimation exceeded US$ 2 billion in the same year. However, the production of probiotics and prebiotics at industrial scale faces several challenges, including the search for economical and abundant raw materials for prebiotic production, the low-cost production of probiotics and the improvement of probiotic viability after storage or during the manufacturing process of the functional food. In this review, functional foods based on probiotics and prebiotics are introduced as a key biotechnological field with tremendous potential for innovation. A concise state of the art addressing the fundamentals and challenges for the development of new probiotic- and prebiotic-based foods is presented, the niches for future research being clearly identified and discussed. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Monitoring Agricultural Production in Primary Export Countries within the framework of the GEOGLAM Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Vermote, E.

2012-12-01

Up to date, reliable, global, information on crop production prospects is indispensible for informing and regulating grain markets and for instituting effective agricultural policies. The recent price surges in the global grain markets were in large part triggered by extreme weather events in primary grain export countries. These events raise important questions about the accuracy of current production forecasts and their role in market fluctuations, and highlight the deficiencies in the state of global agricultural monitoring. Satellite-based earth observations are increasingly utilized as a tool for monitoring agricultural production as they offer cost-effective, daily, global information on crop growth and extent and their utility for crop production forecasting has long been demonstrated. Within this context, the Group on Earth Observations developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative which was adopted by the G20 as part of the action plan on food price volatility and agriculture. The goal of GEOGLAM is to enhance agricultural production estimates through the use of Earth observations. This talk will explore the potential contribution of EO-based methods for improving the accuracy of early production estimates of main export countries within the framework of GEOGLAM.

Prediction of in vivo neutral detergent fiber digestibility and digestion rate of potentially digestible neutral detergent fiber: comparison of models.

PubMed

Huhtanen, P; Seppälä, A; Ahvenjärvi, S; Rinne, M

2008-10-01

Eleven 1-pool, seven 2-pool, and three 3-pool models were compared in fitting gas production data and predicting in vivo NDF digestibility and effective first-order digestion rate of potentially digestible NDF (pdNDF). Isolated NDF from 15 grass silages harvested at different stages of maturity was incubated in triplicate in rumen fluid-buffer solution for 72 h to estimate the digestion kinetics from cumulative gas production profiles. In vivo digestibility was estimated by the total fecal collection method in sheep fed at a maintenance level of feeding. The concentration of pdNDF was estimated by a 12-d in situ incubation. The parameter values from gas production profiles and pdNDF were used in a 2-compartment rumen model to predict pdNDF digestibility using 50 h of rumen residence time distributed in a ratio of 0.4:0.6 between the non-escapable and escapable pools. The effective first-order digestion rate was computed both from observed in vivo and model-predicted pdNDF digestibility assuming the passage kinetic model described above. There were marked differences between the models in fitting the gas production data. The fit improved with increasing number of pools, suggesting that silage pdNDF is not a homogenous substrate. Generally, the models predicted in vivo NDF digestibility and digestion rate accurately. However, a good fit of gas production data was not necessarily translated into improved predictions of the in vivo data. The models overestimating the asymptotic gas volumes tended to underestimate the in vivo digestibility. Investigating the time-related residuals during the later phases of fermentation is important when the data are used to estimate the first-order digestion rate of pdNDF. Relatively simple models such as the France model or even a single exponential model with discrete lag period satisfied the minimum criteria for a good model. Further, the comparison of feedstuffs on the basis of parameter values is more unequivocal than in the case of multiple-pool models.

Mapping floral resources for honey bees in New Zealand at the catchment scale.

PubMed

Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle E; Dymond, John R; Newstrom, Linda

2018-03-12

Honey bees require nectar and pollen from flowers: nectar for energy and pollen for growth. The demand for nectar and pollen varies during the year, with more pollen needed in spring for colony population growth and more nectar needed in summer to sustain the maximum colony size and collect surplus nectar stores for winter. Sufficient bee forage is therefore necessary to ensure a healthy bee colony. Land-use changes can reduce the availability of floral resources suitable for bees, thereby increasing the susceptibility of bees to other stressors such as disease and pesticides. In contrast, land-based management decisions to protect or plant bee forage can enhance pollen and nectar supply to bees while meeting other goals such as riparian planting for water-quality improvement. Commercial demand for honey can also put pressure on floral resources through over-crowding of hives. To help understand and manage floral resources for bees, we developed a spatial model for mapping monthly nectar and pollen production from maps of land cover. Based on monthly estimated production data we mapped potential monthly supply of nectar and pollen to a given apiary location in the landscape. This is done by summing the total production within the foraging range of the apiary while subtracting the estimated nectar converted to energy for collection. Ratios of estimated supply over theoretical hive demand may then be used to infer a potential landscape carrying capacity to sustain hives. This model framework is quantitative and spatial, utilizing estimated flight energy costs for nectar foraging. It can contribute to management decisions such as where apiaries could be placed in the landscape depending on floral resources and where nectar limited areas may be located. It can contribute to planning areas for bee protection or planting such as in riparian vegetation. This would aid managed bee health, wild pollinator protection, and honey production. We demonstrate the methods in a case study in New Zealand where there is a growing demand for mānuka (Leptospermum scoparium) honey production. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Potentials of an integrated biomass utilization system: Estimation of carbon flow and energy consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Ryosuke; Nishimura, Motoki; Yuan, Lee Chang; Kamahara, Hirotsugu; Atsuta, Yoichi; Daimon, Hiroyuki

2017-10-01

Utilization of sewage sludge using anaerobic digestion has been promoted for decades. However, it is still relatively uncommon especially in Japan. As an approach to promote the utilization of sewage sludge using anaerobic digestion, an integrated system that combines anaerobic digestion with greenhouse, composting and seaweed cultivation was proposed. Based on the concept of the integrated system, not only sewage sludge can be treated using anaerobic digestion that creates green energy, but also the by-products such as CO2 and heat produced during the process can be utilized for crops production. In this study, the potentials of such integrated system were discussed through the estimation of possible commercialized scale as well as comparison of energy consumption with conventional approach for sewage sludge treatment, which is the incineration. The estimation of possible commercialized scale was calculated based on the carbon flow of the system. Results showed that 25% of the current total electricity of the wastewater treatment plant can be covered by the energy produced using anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge. It was estimated that the total energy consumption of the integrated system was actually 14% lower when compared to incineration approach. In addition to the large amount of crops that can be produced, all in all this study aimed to be the showcase of the potentials of sewage sludge as a biomass by implementing the proposed integrated system. The extra values of producing crops through the utilization of CO2 and heat can serve as a stimulus to the public, which would surely lead to higher interest to implement the utilization of sewage sludge using anaerobic digestion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steimle, F; Foster, Karen L.; Kropp, Roy K.

To understand the potential enhancement value of a habitat-loss mitigation reef in Delaware Bay, especially as a source of food for fishery resources, the secondary productivity of the reef epifauna and nearby sand infauna was estimated and compared. The mean production of natural sand infauna was estimated at between 215 and 249 kcal m(2) yr(-1), while that of the epifauna on the reef surfaces was between 3990 and 9555 kcal m(2) yr(-1). With the 36 m(2) footprint of a reef unit as a basis for comparison, the 407 m(2) of reef unit surface covering that footprint produced 1.62-3.89 X 10(6)more » kcal yr(-1) of epifauna compared with 7.74-8.96 X 10(3) kcal yr(-1) per footprint area for the adjacent sand infauna. There was, however, substantial annual variability in the productivity of the epifauna, based on the recruitment success of Mytilus edulis.« less

Chapter E: History and Overview of the U.S. Diatomite Mining Industry, with Emphasis on the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyle, Phillip R.; Dolley, Thomas P.

2003-01-01

The United States is the largest producer and consumer of diatomite in the world. In 2001, the United States produced about a third of the estimated global production of 1.95 million metric tons (Mt) of diatomite (Dolley, 2003). In any given year, the United States accounts for at least 50 percent of all the diatomite exported in the world (Roskill, 1994). Seven diatomite companies operating in the United States produce diatomite in various grades for a range of applications, including filtration, absorbents, fillers, insulation, and cement manufacture. Economic deposits of diatomite within the United States depend on variations in the physical and chemical properties between and within deposits, potential end uses, and proximity to suitable markets. On the basis of historical production figures, estimated U.S. diatomite-production capacity is currently about 800,000 metric tons per year (t/yr).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seiple, Timothy E.; Coleman, André M.; Skaggs, Richard L.

Within the United States and Puerto Rico, publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) process 130.5 Gl/d (34.5 Bgal/d) of wastewater, producing sludge as a waste product. Emerging technologies offer novel waste-to-energy pathways through whole sludge conversion into biofuels. Assessing the feasibility, scalability and tradeoffs of various energy conversion pathways is difficult in the absence of highly spatially resolved estimates of sludge production. In this study, average wastewater solids concentrations and removal rates, and site specific daily average influent flow are used to estimate site specific annual sludge production on a dry weight basis for >15,000 POTWs. Current beneficial uses, regional productionmore » hotspots and feedstock aggregation potential are also assessed. Analyses indicate 1) POTWs capture 12.56 Tg/y (13.84 MT/y) of dry solids; 2) 50% are not beneficially utilized, and 3) POTWs can support seven regions that aggregate >910 Mg/d (1000 T/d) of sludge within a travel distance of 100 km.« less

Orbital monitoring of the Brazilian pasturelands: patterns, trends and potential ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, L. G.; Parente, L. L.; Arantes, A. E.; Araujo, F. M.; Brito, J. S.; Nogueira, S.; Faria, A. S.; Santos, A.; Ferreira, M. E.; Silva, J. R.; Rufino, L., Jr.; Vieira, P.; Silva, W. C.; Stefani, F.; Veloso, G.; Nogueira, L.; Aguado, O. O.

2015-12-01

In Brazil, where cultivated pastures constitute the dominant land use form, cattle ranching intensification plays a major role towards more environmentally sustainable agricultural practices, through its potential for mitigating GHG emissions, as well as by making available cost-effective land reserve for other uses. However, environmentally sustainable livestock intensification, one of the key goals pursued by Plano ABC (the federal government low carbon agriculture plan), strongly depends on our ability to more precisely identify pasture conditions, improvement needs, and the respective cattle support capacities. To this end, and with the support of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, we have concentrated efforts in order to have: 1) a more detailed and updated map of the brazilian pasturelands; 2) a thorough biophysical differentiation of these pastures according to degradation stages / forage levels; and 3) an estimation of overall pasture productivity trends. Our initial estimates, based on the interpretation of satellite and census data, suggest that as much as 50% of the total grazing area in Brazil (about 170 Mhectares) are moderately or severely affected by soil-plant degradation. On the other hand, our preliminary results also corroborate the enormous potential of well managed pastures to positively impact carbon and water fluxes. Based on satellite data and pasture samples from large and productive cattle ranch operations in the central savanna biome in Brazil (Cerrado), we estimated total growing season (October to April) biomass and evapotranspiration to correspond to 9 Gt of carbon and 420 Gt of water, respectively.

Potential market for novel tuberculosis diagnostics: worth the investment?

PubMed

Kik, Sandra V; Denkinger, Claudia M; Jefferson, Carole; Ginnard, Janet; Pai, Madhukar

2015-04-01

The potential available market (PAM) for new diagnostics for tuberculosis that meet the specifications of the high-priority target product profiles (TPPs) is currently unknown. We estimated the PAM in 2020 in 4 high-burden countries (South Africa, Brazil, China, and India) for tests that meet the specifications outlined in the TPPs. The yearly PAM was estimated for the most likely application of each TPP. In 2020 the PAM for all 4 countries together was estimated to be (1) 12M tests/year with a value of 48M-71M USD for a sputum smear-replacement test; (2) 16M tests/year with a value of 65M-97M USD for a biomarker test; (3) 18M tests/year with a value of 18M-35M USD for a triage test; (4) 12M tests/year with a value of 59M-2238M USD for a tuberculosis detection plus drug susceptibility test (DST) all-in-one or 1.5M tests/year for a DST that follows a positive tuberculosis detection test with a corresponding value of 75M-121M for both tuberculosis detection and DST. Although there is a considerable potential market for novel tuberculosis diagnostics that fit the specification of the TPPs in the 4 high-burden countries, the actual market for an individual product remains uncertain. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Biocrude crop production in arid lands. [Calotropis procera, Chrysothamus paniculatus, Euphorbia lathyris, Grindelia camporum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLaughlin, S.P.; Kingsolver, B.E.; Hoffmann, J.J.

1983-01-01

Published and unpublished estimates of land and water requirements and energy yield were used to prepare energy budgets for 4 potential biocrude (liquid fuel) crops in the SW USA: the perennials Calotropis procera and Chrysothamnus paniculatus and the annuals Euphorbia lathyris and Grindelia camporum. Estimated annual costs are examined and discussed for an operation processing 300,000 t/yr. The cheapest energy was produced by C. paniculatus, although it required the largest land area. The paper emphasizes that selecting for biocrude content (biomass quality) of plants may be at the expense of productivity (quantity) since the 2 have been shown to bemore » inversely related in many cases. 8 references.« less

Estimating the Effects of Global Patent Protection in Pharmaceuticals: A Case Study of Quinolones in India.

PubMed

Chaudhuri, Shubham; Goldberg, Pinelopi K; Jia, Panle

2006-12-01

Under the Agreement on Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights, the World Trade Organization members are required to enforce product patents for pharmaceuticals. In this paper we empirically investigate the welfare effects of this requirement on developing countries using data for the fluoroquinolones subsegment of the systemic anti-bacterials segment of the Indian pharmaceuticals market. Our results suggest that concerns about the potential adverse welfare effects of TRIPS may have some basis. We estimate that the withdrawal of all domestic products in this subsegment is associated with substantial welfare losses to the Indian economy, even in the presence of price regulation. The overwhelming portion of this welfare loss derives from the loss of consumer welfare.

A global portrait of the manganese industry-A socioeconomic perspective.

PubMed

Clarke, Carl; Upson, Sophie

2017-01-01

In 2013/14, Risk & Policy Analysts Ltd undertook the first global study on the socio-economic value of Manganese (Mn). Based on a top-down analysis of the key supply chains for Mn, it outlined the economic importance of Mn ore and alloys in terms of their direct and indirect economic value, as well as their effects on employment (jobs and wages). In 2013, global production of Mn ore was worth an estimated US$ 10.2-11.1 billion. Taking into account multiplier effects in the supply chain, the total economic value of Mn ore production globally in 2013 is estimated at US$ 21-23 billion. Direct employment related to Mn ore production is estimated at 44,000-78,000 people worldwide (with total wages estimated at US$ 2.7-4.6 billion per year), plus 33,000-59,000 jobs are created through indirect and induced employment effects. Meanwhile, the production of Mn alloy contributes around US$ 23 billion per year to the global economy (based on global production of around 19 million mt and 2013 market prices). In total, the value of Mn alloy production worldwide, taking into account downstream multiplier effects in the supply chain, is estimated at around US$ 146 billion per year. Direct employment related to Mn alloy production is estimated at 67,000-86,000 jobs worldwide (with total wages estimated at US$ 613-796 million per year), plus 217,000-278,000 jobs created through indirect & induced employment effects. In addition, numerous industries/sectors, products and/or applications are heavily dependent on Mn production and use. Mn is a critical raw material input and alloying element for the steel industry, for which there are no known alternatives. It can be argued that without Mn the entire steel industry (based on the current physico-chemical properties of steel) would not exist and, as a result, the value of the steel industry - an estimated US$ 964 billion to US$ 1446 billion in 2013 - is reliant on the continued supply and use of Mn. Besides its use in steel, Mn is also a critical element in the manufacture of dry cell and other batteries (notably, those used in electric vehicles) and the production of aluminium alloys (e.g. for beverage cans). Mn is also a micronutrient needed for plant growth and plays a vital role in agricultural production. It is also essential for maintaining the health and well-being of the human body and is used in food supplements and medicines. Furthermore, its use in developing applications (such as advanced steel products in automotive applications and batteries for electric vehicles) has the potential to provide socio-economic and environmental benefits in the future through enhancing vehicle safety and reducing fuel use/emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Convergence of potential net ecosystem production among contrasting C3 grasslands

PubMed Central

Peichl, Matthias; Sonnentag, Oliver; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Kiely, Gerard; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; Pio, Casimiro; Migliavacca, Mirco; Jones, Michael B.; Saunders, Matthew

2013-01-01

Metabolic theory and body size dependent constraints on biomass production and decomposition suggest that differences in the intrinsic potential net ecosystem production (NEPPOT) should be small among contrasting C3 grasslands and therefore unable to explain the wide range in the annual apparent net ecosystem production (NEPAPP) reported by previous studies. We estimated NEPPOT for nine C3 grasslands under contrasting climate and management regimes using multi-year eddy covariance data. NEPPOT converged within a narrow range suggesting little difference in the net carbon dioxide uptake capacity across C3 grasslands. Our results indicate a unique feature of C3 grasslands compared to other terrestrial ecosystems and suggest a state of stability in NEPPOT due to tightly coupled production and respiration processes. Consequently, the annual NEPAPP of C3 grasslands is primarily a function of seasonal and short-term environmental and management constraints, and therefore especially susceptible to changes in future climate patterns and associated adaptation of management practices. PMID:23346985

Characterisation, quantity and sorptive properties of microplastics extracted from cosmetics.

PubMed

Napper, Imogen E; Bakir, Adil; Rowland, Steven J; Thompson, Richard C

2015-10-15

Cosmetic products, such as facial scrubs, have been identified as potentially important primary sources of microplastics to the marine environment. This study characterises, quantifies and then investigates the sorptive properties of plastic microbeads that are used as exfoliants in cosmetics. Polyethylene microbeads were extracted from several products, and shown to have a wide size range (mean diameters between 164 and 327 μm). We estimated that between 4594 and 94,500 microbeads could be released in a single use. To examine the potential for microbeads to accumulate and transport chemicals they were exposed to a binary mixture of (3)H-phenanthrene and (14)C-DDT in seawater. The potential for transport of sorbed chemicals by microbeads was broadly similar to that of polythene (PE) particles used in previous sorption studies. In conclusion, cosmetic exfoliants are a potentially important, yet preventable source of microplastic contamination in the marine environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, J. J.

2016-12-01

We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of performance, global output of meat and milk could increase 2.8 fold. This is much higher than that reported previously for major grain crops like corn and wheat. Our results suggest that efforts to address poor performance of pasture systems around the world could substantially improve the outlook for meeting future food demand.

Estimating demand for perennial pigeon pea in Malawi using choice experiments.

PubMed

Waldman, Kurt B; Ortega, David L; Richardson, Robert B; Snapp, Sieglinde S

2017-01-01

Perennial crops have numerous ecological and agronomic advantages over their annual counterparts. We estimate discrete choice models to evaluate farmers' preferences for perennial attributes of pigeon pea intercropped with maize in central and southern Malawi. Pigeon pea is a nitrogen-fixing leguminous crop, which has the potential to ameliorate soil fertility problems related to continuous maize cultivation, which are common in Southern Africa. Adoption of annual pigeon pea is relatively low but perennial production of pigeon pea may be more appealing to farmers due to some of the ancillary benefits associated with perenniality. We model perennial production of pigeon pea as a function of the attributes that differ between annual and perennial production: lower labor and seed requirements resulting from a single planting with multiple harvests, enhanced soil fertility and higher levels of biomass production. The primary tradeoff associated with perennial pigeon pea intercropped with maize is competition with maize in subsequent years of production. While maize yield is approximately twice as valuable to farmers as pigeon pea yield, we find positive yet heterogeneous demand for perenniality driven by soil fertility improvements and pigeon pea grain yield.

Polyhydroxyalkanoate Production on Waste Water Treatment Plants: Process Scheme, Operating Conditions and Potential Analysis for German and European Municipal Waste Water Treatment Plants

PubMed Central

Pittmann, Timo; Steinmetz, Heidrun

2017-01-01

This work describes the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) as a side stream process on a municipal waste water treatment plant (WWTP) and a subsequent analysis of the production potential in Germany and the European Union (EU). Therefore, tests with different types of sludge from a WWTP were investigated regarding their volatile fatty acids (VFA) production-potential. Afterwards, primary sludge was used as substrate to test a series of operating conditions (temperature, pH, retention time (RT) and withdrawal (WD)) in order to find suitable settings for a high and stable VFA production. In a second step, various tests regarding a high PHA production and stable PHA composition to determine the influence of substrate concentration, temperature, pH and cycle time of an installed feast/famine-regime were conducted. Experiments with a semi-continuous reactor operation showed that a short RT of 4 days and a small WD of 25% at pH = 6 and around 30 °C is preferable for a high VFA production rate (PR) of 1913 mgVFA/(L×d) and a stable VFA composition. A high PHA production up to 28.4% of cell dry weight (CDW) was reached at lower substrate concentration, 20 °C, neutral pH-value and a 24 h cycle time. A final step a potential analysis, based on the results and detailed data from German waste water treatment plants, showed that the theoretically possible production of biopolymers in Germany amounts to more than 19% of the 2016 worldwide biopolymer production. In addition, a profound estimation regarding the EU showed that in theory about 120% of the worldwide biopolymer production (in 2016) could be produced on European waste water treatment plants. PMID:28952533

Revised estimates of the ocean energy cycle and the key role of the western boundary in the APE to KE conversion due to high latitude cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tailleux, Remi

2014-05-01

The ocean energy cycle is a key aspect of the ocean circulation, and has been traditionally framed in terms of Lorenz (1955) theory of available potential energy. However, the latest available observational estimate of the ocean energy cycle is due to Oort and Peixoto (1994) and is now very dated. Moreover, the latter estimate relies on the so-called Lorenz quasi-geostrophic approximation, which is known to be very inaccurate. Oort and Peixoto also neglected the internal energy contribution to the total available potential energy, which is now understood to be far from negligible, and to account for up to 40 percent of the total APE. The purpose of this work is to revisit observational estimates of the ocean energy cycle by taking advantage of a newly developed APE framework, as well as of the many new available observational products for temperature, salinity and surface buoyancy fluxes. In contrast to previous frameworks, our APE framework (Tailleux, 2013) relies on a physically well defined local APE definition, which is valid for a binary Boussinesq or fully compressible fluid with an arbitrary nonlinear equation of state. As part of our approach, we also developed a new fast and accurate way to construct Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy, based on using the joint probability distribution function for temperature and salinity. Results will be presented for a variety of observational products, as well as for the ECCO2 ocean state estimate. The role of the deep western boundary as the place where the APE created by high latitude is converted into kinetic energy (KE) as part of driving the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will be emphasized. References: Tailleux, R., 2013: Available potential energy density for a multicomponent Boussinesq fluid with arbitrary nonlinear equation of state.J. Fluid Mech., 735,499-518. Sijp, W., J.M.Gregory, R. Tailleux, P. Spence, 2012: The key role of the western boundary in linking the AMOC strength to the North South pressure gradient. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 42, 628-643.

Keeping It Simple: Can We Estimate Malting Quality Potential Using an Isothermal Mashing Protocol and Common Laboratory Instrumentation?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current methods for generating malting quality metrics have been developed largely to support commercial malting and brewing operations, providing accurate, reproducible analytical data to guide malting and brewing production. Infrastructure to support these analytical operations often involves sub...

Ambient ammonia and related amines in and around a mink production facility

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In areas where ammonia is a significant air pollutant or nuisance concern, knowledge of all potential source locations and strengths is paramount. The USEPA’s 2014 National Emissions Inventory estimates that nearly 80% of the national ammonia emissions are attributable to the agricultural sector an...

SIMYAR: a cable-yarding simulation model.

Treesearch

R.J. McGaughey; R.H. Twito

1987-01-01

A skyline-logging simulation model designed to help planners evaluate potential yarding options and alternative harvest plans is presented. The model, called SIMYAR, uses information about the timber stand, yarding equipment, and unit geometry to estimate yarding co stand productivity for a particular operation. The costs of felling, bucking, loading, and hauling are...

Management of spruce-fir in even-aged stands in the central Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Robert R. Alexander; Carleton B. Edminster

1980-01-01

Potential production of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir in the central Rocky Mountains is simulated for vario.us combinations of stand density, site quality, ages, and thinning schedules. Such estimates are needed to project future development of stands managed in different ways for various uses.

Distribution of animal drugs among curd, whey, and milk protein fractions in spiked skim milk and whey

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is important to understand the partitioning of drugs in processed milk and milk products, when drugs are present in raw milk, in order to estimate the potential consumer exposure. Radioisotopically labelled erythromycin, ivermectin, ketoprofen, oxytetracycline, penicillin G, sulfadimethoxine, and...

Quantifying landfill biogas production potential in the U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study presents an overview of the biogas (biomethane) availability in U.S. landfills, calculated from EPA estimates of landfill capacities. This survey concludes that the volume of landfill-derived methane in the U.S. is 466 billion cubic feet per year, of which 66 percent is collected and onl...

Aboveground tree biomass for Pinus ponderosa in northeastern California

Treesearch

Martin W. Ritchie; Jianwei Zhang; Todd A. Hamilton

2013-01-01

Forest managers need accurate biomass equations to plan thinning for fuel reduction or energy production. Estimates of carbon sequestration also rely upon such equations. The current allometric equations for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) commonly employed for California forests were developed elsewhere, and are often applied without consideration potential for...

Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

PubMed

Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2015-01-01

The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system. It highlights the crucial importance of implementing healthier UK food policies.

Estimating Primary Production of Picophytoplankton Using the Carbon-Based Ocean Productivity Model: A Preliminary Study

PubMed Central

Liang, Yantao; Zhang, Yongyu; Wang, Nannan; Luo, Tingwei; Zhang, Yao; Rivkin, Richard B.

2017-01-01

Picophytoplankton are acknowledged to contribute significantly to primary production (PP) in the ocean while now the method to measure PP of picophytoplankton (PPPico) at large scales is not yet well established. Although the traditional 14C method and new technologies based on the use of stable isotopes (e.g., 13C) can be employed to accurately measure in situ PPPico, the time-consuming and labor-intensive shortage of these methods constrain their application in a survey on large spatiotemporal scales. To overcome this shortage, a modified carbon-based ocean productivity model (CbPM) is proposed for estimating the PPPico whose principle is based on the group-specific abundance, cellular carbon conversion factor (CCF), and temperature-derived growth rate of picophytoplankton. Comparative analysis showed that the estimated PPPico using CbPM method is significantly and positively related (r2 = 0.53, P < 0.001, n = 171) to the measured 14C uptake. This significant relationship suggests that CbPM has the potential to estimate the PPPico over large spatial and temporal scales. Currently this model application may be limited by the use of invariant cellular CCF and the relatively small data sets to validate the model which may introduce some uncertainties and biases. Model performance will be improved by the use of variable conversion factors and the larger data sets representing diverse growth conditions. Finally, we apply the CbPM-based model on the collected data during four cruises in the Bohai Sea in 2005. Model-estimated PPPico ranged from 0.1 to 11.9, 29.9 to 432.8, 5.5 to 214.9, and 2.4 to 65.8 mg C m-2 d-1 during March, June, September, and December, respectively. This study shed light on the estimation of global PPPico using carbon-based production model. PMID:29051755

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report summarizes the work done by InterTechnology/Solar Corporation, its consultants, Mobil Tyco Solar Energy Corporation and the University of Delaware Institute for Energy Conversion, and its consultants, during the marketing analysis of near and intermediate term photovoltaic power applications. To obtain estimates of the domestic and foreign market potential for photovoltaically powered devices two approaches were used. First, the study was identifying then screening all possible photovoltaic power supply applications. This approach encompassed the first two tasks of the study: (1) a survey of the current uses of photovoltaic systems, both domestic and international, and a projection of themore » usage of those systems into the future; and (2) a new idea generation task which attempted to come up with new ways of using photovoltaic power. Second, the study required in-depth analysis of key near-term and intermediate-term photovoltaic applications identified during the first phase to obtain reasonable estimates of photovoltaic market potential. This process encompassed the third and fourth tasks of the analysis: (3) refinement of ideas generated in Task 2 so that certain products/applications could be identified, the product defined and a market survey carried out; and (4) development of a detailed product scenario which forecasts sales, barriers to market acceptance, and technical innovationsrequired for proper introduction of the products. The work performed and findings of each task are presented.« less

Mathematical Modeling to Reduce Waste of Compounded Sterile Products in Hospital Pharmacies

PubMed Central

Dobson, Gregory; Haas, Curtis E.; Tilson, David

2014-01-01

Abstract In recent years, many US hospitals embarked on “lean” projects to reduce waste. One advantage of the lean operational improvement methodology is that it relies on process observation by those engaged in the work and requires relatively little data. However, the thoughtful analysis of the data captured by operational systems allows the modeling of many potential process options. Such models permit the evaluation of likely waste reductions and financial savings before actual process changes are made. Thus the most promising options can be identified prospectively, change efforts targeted accordingly, and realistic targets set. This article provides one example of such a datadriven process redesign project focusing on waste reduction in an in-hospital pharmacy. A mathematical model of the medication prepared and delivered by the pharmacy is used to estimate the savings from several potential redesign options (rescheduling the start of production, scheduling multiple batches, or reordering production within a batch) as well as the impact of information system enhancements. The key finding is that mathematical modeling can indeed be a useful tool. In one hospital setting, it estimated that waste could be realistically reduced by around 50% by using several process changes and that the greatest benefit would be gained by rescheduling the start of production (for a single batch) away from the period when most order cancellations are made. PMID:25477580

On the Performance Potential of Bioelectrochemical Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansell, J. Matthew

2013-01-01

An area of growing multi-disciplinary research and revolutionary development for bio-processing on Earth is bioelectrochemical systems. These systems exploit the capability of many microorganisms to act as biocatalysts, enhancing the performance of electrochemical processes which convert low-value materials into valuable products. Many varieties of such processes hold potential value for space exploration as means to recycle metabolic waste and other undesirable materials or insitu resources into oxygen, water, and other valuable substances. However, the wide range of possible reactants, products, configurations, and operating parameters, along with the early stage of development and application on the ground necessitate thorough consideration of which, if any, possibilities could outperform existing technologies and should thus receive investment for space applications. In turn, the decision depends on the theoretical and practical limits of performance and the value of the reactant-product conversions within spaceflight scenarios, and should, to the greatest extent possible, be examined from the perspective of a fully designed, integrated system, rather than as an isolated unit lacking critical components like valves and pumps. Herein, we select a series of possible reactant-product conversions, develop concept process flow diagrams for each, and estimate theoretical and (where sufficient literature data allows) practical performance limitations of each. The objective was to estimate the costs, benefits, and risks of each concept in order to aid strategic decisions in the early-phase technology development effort.

Development of an in vitro skin sensitization test based on ROS production in THP-1 cells.

PubMed

Saito, Kazutoshi; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Nukada, Yuko; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Nishiyama, Naohiro

2013-03-01

Recently, it has been reported that reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced by contact allergens can affect dendritic cell migration and contact hypersensitivity. The aim of the present study was to develop a new in vitro assay that could predict the skin sensitizing potential of chemicals by measuring ROS production in THP-1 (human monocytic leukemia cell line) cells. THP-1 cells were pre-loaded with a ROS sensitive fluorescent dye, 5-(and 6-)-chloromethyl-2', 7'-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate, acetyl ester (CM-H2DCFDA), for 15min, then incubated with test chemicals for 30min. The fluorescence intensity was measured by flow cytometry. For the skin sensitizers, 25 out of 30 induced over a 2-fold ROS production at more than 90% of cell viability. In contrast, increases were only seen in 4 out of 20 non-sensitizers. The overall accuracy for the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was 82% for 50 chemicals tested. A correlation was found between the estimated concentration showing 2-fold ROS production in the ROS assay and the EC3 values (estimated concentration required to induce positive response) of the LLNA. These results indicated that the THP-1 cell-based ROS assay was a rapid and highly sensitive detection system able to predict skin sensitizing potentials and potency of chemicals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity, substitutability, and other channels of influence.

PubMed

Greenwood, M J; Hunt, G L

1995-04-01

The authors use Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) data constructed from 1980 census microdata files and other sources to estimate a structural model of native/foreign-born labor demand and labor supply which distinguishes the effects upon real wages of each type of labor and on the employment of natives. The authors specify, econometrically estimate, and simulate the structural model which incorporates not only a production structure channel through which immigrants influence area real wages and employment, but also demand and native labor supply channels. It is noted that while these are not the only channels through which immigrants may affect native workers, the model nonetheless constitutes a step in the direction of a general equilibrium approach. In the production structure channel, immigrants and natives are found to be substitutes in production. Immigration lowers foreign-born wage rates and leads to lower wages for natives. The negative effects of the production channel usually are ameliorated through the demand channel. Further, immigrants add to local demand through their earnings and potentially through non-labor income, while also lowering unit costs and local prices which enhances real incomes and potentially net exports, and thus the demands for local output and area labor. The author discusses findings of interest from the simulation results based upon an analysis of all areas.

Quantitative estimation of global patterns of surface ocean biological productivity and its seasonal variation on timescales from centuries to millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loubere, Paul; Fariduddin, Mohammad

1999-03-01

We present a quantitative method, based on the relative abundances of benthic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments, for estimating surface ocean biological productivity over the timescale of centuries to millennia. We calibrate the method using a global data set composed of 207 samples from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans from a water depth range between 2300 and 3600 m. The sample set was developed so that other, potentially significant, environmental variables would be uncorrelated to overlying surface ocean productivity. A regression of assemblages against productivity yielded an r2 = 0.89 demonstrating a strong productivity signal in the faunal data. In addition, we examined assemblage response to annual variability in biological productivity (seasonality). Our data set included a range of seasonalities which we quantified into a seasonality index using the pigment color bands from the coastal zone color scanner (CZCS). The response of benthic foraminiferal assemblage composition to our seasonality index was tested with regression analysis. We obtained a statistically highly significant r2 = 0.75. Further, discriminant function analysis revealed a clear separation among sample groups based on surface ocean productivity and our seasonality index. Finally, we tested the response of benthic foraminiferal assemblages to three different modes of seasonality. We observed a distinct separation of our samples into groups representing low seasonal variability, strong seasonality with a single main productivity event in the year, and strong seasonality with multiple productivity events in the year. Reconstructing surface ocean biological productivity with benthic foraminifera will aid in modeling marine biogeochemical cycles. Also, estimating mode and range of annual seasonality will provide insight to changing oceanic processes, allowing the examination of the mechanisms causing changes in the marine biotic system over time. This article contains supplementary material.

A Remote Sensing-Derived Corn Yield Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Ranjay Man

Agricultural studies and food security have become critical research topics due to continuous growth in human population and simultaneous shrinkage in agricultural land. In spite of modern technological advancements to improve agricultural productivity, more studies on crop yield assessments and food productivities are still necessary to fulfill the constantly increasing food demands. Besides human activities, natural disasters such as flood and drought, along with rapid climate changes, also inflect an adverse effect on food productivities. Understanding the impact of these disasters on crop yield and making early impact estimations could help planning for any national or international food crisis. Similarly, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Risk Management Agency (RMA) insurance management utilizes appropriately estimated crop yield and damage assessment information to sustain farmers' practice through timely and proper compensations. Through County Agricultural Production Survey (CAPS), the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) uses traditional methods of field interviews and farmer-reported survey data to perform annual crop condition monitoring and production estimations at the regional and state levels. As these manual approaches of yield estimations are highly inefficient and produce very limited samples to represent the entire area, NASS requires supplemental spatial data that provides continuous and timely information on crop production and annual yield. Compared to traditional methods, remote sensing data and products offer wider spatial extent, more accurate location information, higher temporal resolution and data distribution, and lower data cost--thus providing a complementary option for estimation of crop yield information. Remote sensing derived vegetation indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provide measurable statistics of potential crop growth based on the spectral reflectance and could be further associated with the actual yield. Utilizing satellite remote sensing products, such as daily NDVI derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m pixel size, the crop yield estimation can be performed at a very fine spatial resolution. Therefore, this study examined the potential of these daily NDVI products within agricultural studies and crop yield assessments. In this study, a regression-based approach was proposed to estimate the annual corn yield through changes in MODIS daily NDVI time series. The relationship between daily NDVI and corn yield was well defined and established, and as changes in corn phenology and yield were directly reflected by the changes in NDVI within the growing season, these two entities were combined to develop a relational model. The model was trained using 15 years (2000-2014) of historical NDVI and county-level corn yield data for four major corn producing states: Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Indiana, representing four climatic regions as South, West North Central, East North Central, and Central, respectively, within the U.S. Corn Belt area. The model's goodness of fit was well defined with a high coefficient of determination (R2>0.81). Similarly, using 2015 yield data for validation, 92% of average accuracy signified the performance of the model in estimating corn yield at county level. Besides providing the county-level corn yield estimations, the derived model was also accurate enough to estimate the yield at finer spatial resolution (field level). The model's assessment accuracy was evaluated using the randomly selected field level corn yield within the study area for 2014, 2015, and 2016. A total of over 120 plot level corn yield were used for validation, and the overall average accuracy was 87%, which statistically justified the model's capability to estimate plot-level corn yield. Additionally, the proposed model was applied to the impact estimation by examining the changes in corn yield due to flood events during the growing season. Using a 2011 Missouri River flood event as a case study, field-level flood impact map on corn yield throughout the flooded regions was produced and an overall agreement of over 82.2% was achieved when compared with the reference impact map. The future research direction of this dissertation research would be to examine other major crops outside the Corn Belt region of the U.S.

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, Erik; Zhao, Qing; Runge, Michael C.; Boomer, G Scott

2016-01-01

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail (Anas acuta) and mallard (Anas platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Estimate of the potential impact of folic acid fortification of corn masa flour on the prevention of neural tube defects.

PubMed

Tinker, Sarah C; Devine, Owen; Mai, Cara; Hamner, Heather C; Reefhuis, Jennita; Gilboa, Suzanne M; Dowling, Nicole F; Honein, Margaret A

2013-10-01

Hispanics in the US have a higher prevalence of neural tube defect (NTD) -affected pregnancies than non-Hispanic whites, and lower median total folic acid (FA) intake. FA fortification of corn masa flour (CMF) is a policy-level intervention for NTD prevention; however, the impact on NTD prevalence has not been estimated. We developed a model to estimate the percentage reduction in prevalence of spina bifida and anencephaly (NTDs) that could occur with FA fortification of CMF. Model inputs included estimates of the percentage reduction in United States NTD prevalence attributed to FA fortification of enriched cereal grain products (1995-1996 vs. 1998-2002), the increase in median FA intake after enriched cereal grain product fortification, and the estimated increase in median FA intake that could occur with CMF fortification at the same level as enriched cereal grain products (140 μg/100 g). We used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty. We stratified analyses by racial/ethnic group and rounded results to the nearest 10. We estimated CMF fortification could prevent 30 Hispanic infants from having spina bifida (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 80) and 10 infants from having anencephaly (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 40) annually. The estimated impact among non-Hispanic whites and blacks was smaller. CMF fortification with FA could prevent from 0 to 120 infants, with the most likely value of approximately 40, from having spina bifida or anencephaly among Hispanics, the population most likely to benefit from the proposed intervention. While this estimated reduction is unlikely to be discernible using current birth defect surveillance methods, it still suggests an important benefit to the target population. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Optimal allocation of land and water resources to achieve Water, Energy and Food Security in the upper Blue Nile basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allam, M.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

Rapid population growth, hunger problems, increasing energy demands, persistent conflicts between the Nile basin riparian countries and the potential impacts of climate change highlight the urgent need for the conscious stewardship of the upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin resources. This study develops a framework for the optimal allocation of land and water resources to agriculture and hydropower production in the UBN basin. The framework consists of three optimization models that aim to: (a) provide accurate estimates of the basin water budget, (b) allocate land and water resources optimally to agriculture, and (c) allocate water to agriculture and hydropower production, and investigate trade-offs between them. First, a data assimilation procedure for data-scarce basins is proposed to deal with data limitations and produce estimates of the hydrologic components that are consistent with the principles of mass and energy conservation. Second, the most representative topography and soil properties datasets are objectively identified and used to delineate the agricultural potential in the basin. The agricultural potential is incorporated into a land-water allocation model that maximizes the net economic benefits from rain-fed agriculture while allowing for enhancing the soils from one suitability class to another to increase agricultural productivity in return for an investment in soil inputs. The optimal agricultural expansion is expected to reduce the basin flow by 7.6 cubic kilometres, impacting downstream countries. The optimization framework is expanded to include hydropower production. This study finds that allocating water to grow rain-fed teff in the basin is more profitable than allocating water for hydropower production. Optimal operation rules for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (GERD) are identified to maximize annual hydropower generation while achieving a relatively uniform monthly production rate. Trade-offs between agricultural expansion and hydropower generation are analysed in an attempt to define cooperation scenarios that would achieve win-win outcomes for all riparian countries.

Problems in estimating self-supplied industrial water use by indirect methods, the California example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burt, R.J.

1983-01-01

Consumptive fresh-water use by industry in California is estimated at about 230 million gallons per day, or about one-half of one percent of agricultural withdrawals in the State , and only about 1 percent of agricultural consumptive use. Therefore, a significant State-wide realignment of the total water resources could not be made by industrial conservation measures. Nevertheless, considerable latitude for water conservation exists in industry -- fresh water consumed by self-supplied industry amounts to about 40 percent of its withdrawals in California, and only about 10 to 15 percent nationally (not including power-plant use). Furthermore, where firms withdraw and consume less water there is more for others nearby to use. The main question in attempting to estimate self-supplied industrial water use in California by indirect methods was whether accurate estimates of industrial water use could be made from data on surrogates such as production and employment. The answer is apparently not. A fundamental problem was that different data bases produced variable coefficients of water use for similar industries. Much of the potential for error appeared to lie in the water data bases rather than the production or employment data. The apparent reasons are that water-use data are based on responses to questionnaires, which are prone to errors in reporting, and because the data may be aggregated inappropriately for this kind of correlation. Industries within an apparently similar category commonly use different amounts of water, both because of differences in the product and because of differences in production processes even where the end-product is similar. (USGS)

Contribution of thermoelectric and electrochemical effects to spontaneous potential signals induced by water injection into hydrocarbon reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulamali, M. Y.; Saunders, J. H.; Jackson, M.; Pain, C. C.

2009-12-01

Recent work has demonstrated that downhole measurements of streaming potential, using electrodes mounted on the outside of insulated casing, may be used to inform production strategies in oil and gas reservoirs. However, spontaneous potentials due to thermoelectric and/or electrochemical effects may also be present during production and may contribute to the signal measured at the production well. We present a workflow to numerically model spontaneous potentials in the subsurface and ascertain their magnitude in oil reservoirs during production. Our results suggest that the injection of seawater, which typically has a different temperature and salinity to the formation brine, leads to the generation of both thermoelectric and electrochemical potential signals which may be measured at the production well. We observe a peak in the thermoelectric potential before and after the temperature front, with a change in sign occurring close to the midpoint of the front, and the signal decaying with distance from the front. The electrochemical potential has a similar profile, with a change in sign occurring close to the location of the salinity front. In both cases, the absolute magnitude of the signal is related to the overall temperature and/or salinity contrast between the injected fluids and the formation brine, and the magnitude of the thermoelectric or electrochemical coupling coefficient. The lag in the temperature front relative to the saturation front leads to a negligible thermoelectric potential signal at the production well until long after water breakthrough occurs. In contrast, the electrochemical potential contributes significantly to the spontaneous potential measured at the production well before the waterfront arrives, as the salinity front and the saturation front coincide. However, the dependency of the thermoelectric and electrochemical coupling coefficients upon temperature and/or salinity is still uncertain, especially at partial water saturation. We have used the maximum theoretical limit, in the case of the perfect membrane, to estimate these parameters. These results imply that measurements of the spontaneous potential at a production well will combine contributions from both streaming and electrochemical effects, and may be used to detect an advancing waterfront some time before water breakthrough occurs at the well. Moreover, inversion of the measured signals could be used to determine the water saturation in the vicinity of the well, and to regulate flow into the well using control valves in order to maintain or increase oil production.

Cancer risk from incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs associated with coal-tar-sealed pavement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, E. Spencer; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.

2012-01-01

Recent (2009-10) studies documented significantly higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in settled house dust in living spaces and soil adjacent to parking lots sealed with coal-tar-based products. To date, no studies have examined the potential human health effects of PAHs from these products in dust and soil. Here we present the results of an analysis of potential cancer risk associated with incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs in settings near coal-tar-sealed pavement. Exposures to benzo[a]pyrene equivalents were characterized across five scenarios. The central tendency estimate of excess cancer risk resulting from lifetime exposures to soil and dust from nondietary ingestion in these settings exceeded 1 × 10–4, as determined using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Soil was the primary driver of risk, but according to probabilistic calculations, reasonable maximum exposure to affected house dust in the first 6 years of life was sufficient to generate an estimated excess lifetime cancer risk of 6 × 10–5. Our results indicate that the presence of coal-tar-based pavement sealants is associated with significant increases in estimated excess lifetime cancer risk for nearby residents. Much of this calculated excess risk arises from exposures to PAHs in early childhood (i.e., 0–6 years of age).

Life-cycle assessment of corn-based butanol as a potential transportation fuel.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, M.; Wang, M.; Liu, J.

2007-12-31

Butanol produced from bio-sources (such as corn) could have attractive properties as a transportation fuel. Production of butanol through a fermentation process called acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) has been the focus of increasing research and development efforts. Advances in ABE process development in recent years have led to drastic increases in ABE productivity and yields, making butanol production worthy of evaluation for use in motor vehicles. Consequently, chemical/fuel industries have announced their intention to produce butanol from bio-based materials. The purpose of this study is to estimate the potential life-cycle energy and emission effects associated with using bio-butanol as a transportation fuel.more » The study employs a well-to-wheels analysis tool--the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory--and the Aspen Plus{reg_sign} model developed by AspenTech. The study describes the butanol production from corn, including grain processing, fermentation, gas stripping, distillation, and adsorption for products separation. The Aspen{reg_sign} results that we obtained for the corn-to-butanol production process provide the basis for GREET modeling to estimate life-cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The GREET model was expanded to simulate the bio-butanol life cycle, from agricultural chemical production to butanol use in motor vehicles. We then compared the results for bio-butanol with those of conventional gasoline. We also analyzed the bio-acetone that is coproduced with bio-butanol as an alternative to petroleum-based acetone. Our study shows that, while the use of corn-based butanol achieves energy benefits and reduces greenhouse gas emissions, the results are affected by the methods used to treat the acetone that is co-produced in butanol plants.« less

In situ cosmogenic radiocarbon production and 2-D ice flow line modeling for an Antarctic blue ice area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, Christo; Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Kavanaugh, Jeffrey L.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Lifton, Nathaniel A.; Brook, Edward J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2012-06-01

Radiocarbon measurements at ice margin sites and blue ice areas can potentially be used for ice dating, ablation rate estimates and paleoclimatic reconstructions. Part of the measured signal comes from in situ cosmogenic 14C production in ice, and this component must be well understood before useful information can be extracted from 14C data. We combine cosmic ray scaling and production estimates with a two-dimensional ice flow line model to study cosmogenic 14C production at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We find (1) that 14C production through thermal neutron capture by nitrogen in air bubbles is negligible; (2) that including ice flow patterns caused by basal topography can lead to a surface 14C activity that differs by up to 25% from the activity calculated using an ablation-only approximation, which is used in all prior work; and (3) that at high ablation margin sites, solar modulation of the cosmic ray flux may change the strength of the dominant spallogenic production by up to 10%. As part of this effort we model two-dimensional ice flow along the central flow line of Taylor Glacier. We present two methods for parameterizing vertical strain rates, and assess which method is more reliable for Taylor Glacier. Finally, we present a sensitivity study from which we conclude that uncertainties in published cosmogenic production rates are the largest source of potential error. The results presented here can inform ongoing and future 14C and ice flow studies at ice margin sites, including important paleoclimatic applications such as the reconstruction of paleoatmospheric 14C content of methane.

Renewable Energy Production and Urban Remediation: Modeling the biogeochemical cycle at contaminated urban brownfields and the potential for renewable energy production and mitigation of greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalakrishnan, G.

2014-12-01

Brownfields or urban sites that have been contaminated as a result of historic practices are present throughout the world. In the United States alone, the National Research Council has estimated that there are approximately 300,000 to 400,000 sites which have been contaminated by improper use and disposal of chemicals (NRC 1993). The land available at these sites is estimated at several million acres; however, the presence of high levels of contamination in the soil and groundwater makes it difficult to utilize these sites for traditional purposes such as agriculture. Further, the time required to remediate these contaminants to regulated levels is in the order of decades, which often results in long-term economic consequences for the areas near these sites. There has been significant interest in developing these sites as potential sources of renewable energy production in order to increase the economic viability of these sites and to provide alternative land resources for renewable energy production (EPA 2012). Solar energy, wind energy, and bioenergy from lignocellulosic biomass production have been identified as the main sources of renewable energy that can be produced at these locations. However, the environmental impacts of such a policy and the implications for greenhouse gas emissions, particularly resulting from changes in land-use impacting the biogeochemical cycle at these sites, have not been studied extensively to date. This study uses the biogeochemical process-based model DNDC to simulate carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emissions and methane emissions from typical urban brownfield systems in the United States, when renewable energy systems are deployed. Photovoltaic solar energy and lignocellulosic biomass energy systems are evaluated here. Plants modeled include those most widely used for both bioenergy and remediation such as woody trees. Model sensitivity to soil conditions, contaminant levels and local weather data and the resulting impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are explored. Tradeoffs between renewable energy production,contaminant removal, and mitigation of greenhouse gases are also evaluated. Results indicate that a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions of 29-43% is possible, together with an estimated increase in renewable energy production of 7-22%.

Behavioral factors affecting exposure potential for household cleaning products.

PubMed

Kovacs, D C; Small, M J; Davidson, C I; Fischhoff, B

1997-01-01

Behavioral experiments were performed on 342 subjects to determine whether behavior, which could affect the level of personal exposure, is exhibited in response to odors and labels which are commonly used for household chemicals. Potential for exposure was assessed by having subjects perform cleaning tasks presented as a product preference test, and noting the amount of cleaning product used, the time taken to complete the cleaning task, the product preference, and the exhibition of avoidance behavior. Product odor was found to affect product preference in the study with the pleasant odored product being preferred to the neutral and unpleasant products. Product odor was also found to influence the amount of product used; less of the odored products was used compared to the neutral product. The experiment also found that very few of the subjects in the study read the product labels, precluding analysis of the effect of such labels on product use. A postexperiment questionnaire on household cleaning product purchasing and use was administered to participants. The results indicate that significant gender differences exist. Women in the sample reported more frequent purchase and use of cleaning products resulting in an estimated potential exposure 40% greater than for the men in the sample. This finding is somewhat countered by the fact that women more frequently reported exposure avoidance behavior, such as using gloves. Additional significant gender differences were found in the stated importance of product qualities, such as odor and environmental quality. This study suggests the need for further research, in a more realistic use setting, on the impact of public education, labels, and product odor on preference, use, and exposure for different types of consumer products.

A geographical assessment of vegetation carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions on potential microalgae-based biofuel facilities in the United States.

PubMed

Quiroz Arita, Carlos; Yilmaz, Özge; Barlak, Semin; Catton, Kimberly B; Quinn, Jason C; Bradley, Thomas H

2016-12-01

The microalgae biofuels life cycle assessments (LCA) present in the literature have excluded the effects of direct land use change (DLUC) from facility construction under the assumption that DLUC effects are negligible. This study seeks to model the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of microalgae biofuels including DLUC by quantifying the CO 2 equivalence of carbon released to the atmosphere through the construction of microalgae facilities. The locations and types of biomass and Soil Organic Carbon that are disturbed through microalgae cultivation facility construction are quantified using geographical models of microalgae productivity potential including consideration of land availability. The results of this study demonstrate that previous LCA of microalgae to biofuel processes have overestimated GHG benefits of microalgae-based biofuels production by failing to include the effect of DLUC. Previous estimations of microalgae biofuel production potential have correspondingly overestimated the volume of biofuels that can be produced in compliance with U.S. environmental goals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential effects of sulfur pollutants on grape production in New York State

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Viessman, S.M.; Knudson, D.A.; Streets, D.G.

1982-08-01

The purpose was to design and carry out a prototype assessment of the potential effects of sulfur pollutants on a crop of local economic significance; and, to identify the adequacy of existing research data and other information for quantifying the possible extent of adverse effects of such pollutants. Grape production in New York State was selected for this prototype assessment. The prototype assessment attempts to translate the emission characteristics of sources of sulfur pollutants into ambient concentrations of the pollutants in the vicinity of grape-producing regions. The ambient data are then compared with available dose-response data to estimate the potentialmore » effects on the grape crop.« less

An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios. This report investigates the potential dioxin exposure to artists/hobbyists who use ball clay to make pottery and related products. Dermal, inhalation, and ingestion exposures to clay were measured at the ceramics art department of Ohio State University in Columbus, OH. The exposure estimates were based on measured levels of clay in the studio air, deposited on surrogate food samples and on the skin of the artists. The purpose of this report is to describe an exploratory investigation of potential dioxin exposures to artists/hobbyists who use ball clay to make pottery and related products.

Optimizing the harvesting stage of rye as a green manure to maximize nutrient production and to minimize methane production in mono-rice paddies.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Yoon; Park, Chi Kyu; Gwon, Hyo Suk; Khan, Muhammad Israr; Kim, Pil Joo

2015-12-15

Rye (Secale cerealis) has been widely cultivated to improve soil quality in temperate paddies. However, its biomass incorporation can significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions, particularly the emission of methane (CH4), during rice cultivation. The chemical composition and productivity of cover crop biomass may vary at different growing stages. Therefore, nutrient productivity and CH4 production potential might be controlled by selecting the optimum harvesting stage. To investigate the effect of rye harvesting stage on nutrient productivity and CH4 production potential, rye was harvested at different growing stages, from the flowering stage to the maturing stage, for seven weeks. The chemical composition and biomass productivity of rye were investigated. CH4 production was measured by laboratory incubation, and CH4 production potential was estimated to determine the real impact on CH4 dynamics in rice soils. Rye biomass increased with plant maturation, but nutrient productivities such as N (nitrogen), P2O5, and K2O were maximized at the flowering stage. The contents of cellulose and lignin increased significantly as plants matured, but the total N, labile organic carbon (C), and hot and cold water-extractable organic C clearly decreased. Soils were mixed with 0.3% (wt wt(-1) on dry weight) air-dried biomass and incubated to measure the maximum CH4 productivity at 30 °C under flooded conditions. Maximum CH4 productivity was significantly correlated with increasing labile organic C and protein content, but it was negatively correlated with total organic C, cellulose, and lignin content. CH4 production potentials were significantly increased up to the pre-maturing stage (220 DAS) and remained unchanged thereafter. As a result, CH4 production potential per N productivity was the lowest at the late flowering stage (198-205 DAS), which could be the best harvesting stage as well as the most promising stage for increasing nutrient production and decreasing GHG emissions in temperate mono-rice paddy soils. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

1997-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Comparison of several satellite-derived Sun-Induced Fluorescence products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacour, C.; Maignan, F.; MacBean, N.; Köhler, P.; Vountas, M.; Khosravi, N.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.; Frankenberg, C.; Somkuti, P.; Peylin, P.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainties remain in our representation of the global carbon budget, in particular regarding the spatial and temporal dynamics of the net land surface CO2 fluxes along with its two constitutive components, photosynthesis and respiration. Bolstered by the evidenced linear relationship between remotely sensed sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and plant gross carbon uptake (GPP - gross primary productivity) at broad spatial and temporal scales, satellite SIF products are foreseen to provide significant constraint on one of the key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, and ultimately to help reducing the uncertainties in the projections of the fate of carbon sinks and sources under a changing climate.Global SIF estimates are now "routinely" produced from observations of space-borne spectrometers having sufficient spectral resolution/sampling in solar Fraunhofer lines or atmospheric absorption bands in the visible - near-infrared domain. Differences between SIF products derived from different instruments are expected depending on evaluated wavelengths (SIF has a spectral signature with maxima around 685 and 740 nm) and their own observation characteristics (time of satellite overpass, spatial resolution, revisit frequency, spectral resolution, etc.). For instance, SIF products estimated at 760 nm (GOSAT, OCO-2) are about 1.5 times lower than estimates at 740 nm (GOME-2, SCIAMACHY). However, as highlighted by Köhler et al. (2015), strong discrepancies in SIF absolute values may arise for products derived from the same set of observations (GOME-2) but using different estimation algorithms. In the view of using satellite SIF products to calibrate terrestrial biosphere models (e.g. through data assimilation), this is highly problematic, especially for evergreen ecosystems where SIF magnitude is the only observational constraint that can be made use of.In this study, we compare several gridded satellite SIF products and quantify their similarities/discrepancies with respect to both their absolute value and seasonality (plant phenology): GOME-2, OCO2, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY. Our main objective is to assess the potential impacts of their differences in a data assimilation perspective.

A novel pathway of direct methane production and emission by eukaryotes including plants, animals and fungi: An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiangong; Chen, Huai; Zhu, Qiuan; Shen, Yan; Wang, Xue; Wang, Meng; Peng, Changhui

2015-08-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 28 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2). CH4 is responsible for approximately 20% of the Earth's warming since pre-industrial times. Knowledge of the sources of CH4 is crucial due to the recent substantial interannual variability of growth rates and uncertainties regarding individual sources. The prevailing paradigm is that methanogenesis carried out by methanogenic archaea occurs primarily under strictly anaerobic conditions. However, in the past decade, studies have confirmed direct CH4 release from three important kingdoms of eukaryotes-Plantae, Animalia and Fungi-even in the presence of oxygen. This novel CH4 production pathway has been aptly termed ;aerobic CH4 production; to distinguish it from the well-known anaerobic CH4 production pathway, which involves catalytic activity by methanogenic archaeal enzymes. In this review, we collated recent experimental evidence from the published literature and documented this novel pathway of direct CH4 production and emission by eukaryotes. The mechanisms involved in this pathway may be related to protective strategies of eukaryotes in response to changing environmental stresses, with CH4 a by-product or end-product during or at the end of the process(es) that originates from organic methyl-type compounds. Based on the existing, albeit uncertain estimates, plants seem to contribute less to the global CH4 budget (3-24%) compared to previous estimates (10-37%). We still lack estimates of CH4 emissions by animals and fungi. Overall, there is an urgent need to identify the precursors for this novel CH4 source and improve our understanding of the mechanisms of direct CH4 production and the impacts of environmental stresses. An estimate of this new CH4 source, which was not considered as a CH4 source by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013), could be useful for better quantitation of the global CH4 budget.

The quantile regression approach to efficiency measurement: insights from Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Liu, Chunping; Laporte, Audrey; Ferguson, Brian S

2008-09-01

In the health economics literature there is an ongoing debate over approaches used to estimate the efficiency of health systems at various levels, from the level of the individual hospital - or nursing home - up to that of the health system as a whole. The two most widely used approaches to evaluating the efficiency with which various units deliver care are non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) and parametric stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Productivity researchers tend to have very strong preferences over which methodology to use for efficiency estimation. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation to compare the performance of DEA and SFA in terms of their ability to accurately estimate efficiency. We also evaluate quantile regression as a potential alternative approach. A Cobb-Douglas production function, random error terms and a technical inefficiency term with different distributions are used to calculate the observed output. The results, based on these experiments, suggest that neither DEA nor SFA can be regarded as clearly dominant, and that, depending on the quantile estimated, the quantile regression approach may be a useful addition to the armamentarium of methods for estimating technical efficiency.

An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains.

PubMed

Tague, Christina L; McDowell, Nathan G; Allen, Craig D

2013-01-01

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tague, Christina L.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

2013-01-01

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

An Integrated Model of Environmental Effects on Growth, Carbohydrate Balance, and Mortality of Pinus ponderosa Forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains

PubMed Central

Tague, Christina L.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

2013-01-01

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities. PMID:24282532

Microphytobenthos potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guarini, Jean-Marc; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, Jody L.; Gros, Philippe

2002-01-01

In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

Microphytobenthic potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay: A comparative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guarini, J.-M.; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, J.

2002-01-01

In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

[Modelling of the costs of productivity losses due to smoking in Germany for the year 2005].

PubMed

Prenzler, A; Mittendorf, T; von der Schulenburg, J M

2007-11-01

The aim of this study was to estimate disease-related productivity costs attributable to smoking in the year 2005 in Germany. The calculation was based on the updated relative smoking-related disease risk found in the US Cancer Prevention Study II combined with data on smoking prevalence for Germany. With this, smoking-attributable cases resulting in premature mortality, invalidity, and temporal disability to work could be estimated. Neoplasms, diseases of the circulatory and the respiratory systems as well as health problems in children younger than one year were considered in the analysis. The human capital approach was applied to calculate years of potential work loss and productivity costs as a result of smoking. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted to test for robustness of the underlying model. Based on the assumptions within the model, 107,389 deaths, 14,112 invalidity cases, and 1.19 million cases of temporary disability to work were found to be due to smoking in 2005 in Germany, respectively. As a result, productivity costs of 9.6 billion were caused by smoking. The model showed that smoking has a high financial effect. Even so, further analyses are necessary to estimate an overall impact of smoking on the German society.

Estimation of potassium and magnesium flows in animal production in Dianchi Lake basin, China.

PubMed

Amachika, Yuta; Anzai, Hiroki; Wang, Lin; Oishi, Kazato; Irbis, Chagan; Li, Kunzhi; Kumagai, Hajime; Inamura, Tatsuya; Hirooka, Hiroyuki

2016-07-01

The objectives of this study were to estimate and evaluate potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) budgets and flows of animal production in the basin of Dianchi Lake, China. Feed sampling and farmer interviews were conducted in field surveys. The supplies of K and Mg from local and external feeds and the retention, production and excretion of animals were calculated individually for dairy cows, fattening pigs, breeding sows, and broilers and laying hens. The K and Mg flows on a regional level were estimated using the individual budgets. At the individual level, in dairy cattle, the K and Mg supplied from local feeds accounted for large parts of the total nutrient intakes, whereas in the other animal categories most of the K and Mg in the feeds depended on external resources. Our findings also suggested that excessive Mg intake resulted in high Mg excretion and low use efficiency in dairy cattle and fattening pigs. At the regional level, the K and Mg amounts of manure produced and applied in the area (K: 339 and Mg: 143 t/year) exceeded those used as local feeds. Our results imply the animal production potentially increased the K and Mg loads in the regional agriculture system. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Biocatalyzed processes for production of commodity chemicals: Assessment of future research advances for N-butanol production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingham, J. D.

1984-01-01

This report is a summary of assessments by Chem Systems Inc. and a further evaluation of the impacts of research advances on energy efficiency and the potential for future industrial production of acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) solvents and other products by biocatalyzed processes. Brief discussions of each of the assessments made by CSI, followed by estimates of minimum projected energy consumption and costs for production of solvents by ABE biocatalyzed processes are included. These assessments and further advances discussed in this report show that substantial decreases in energy consumption and costs are possible on the basis of specific research advances; therefore, it appears that a biocatalyzed process for ABE can be developed that will be competitive with conventional petrochemical processes for production of n-butanol and acetone. (In this work, the ABE process was selected and utilized only as an example for methodology development; other possible bioprocesses for production of commodity chemicals are not intended to be excluded.) It has been estimated that process energy consumption can be decreased by 50%, with a corresponding cost reduction of 15-30% (in comparison with a conventional petrochemical process) by increasing microorganism tolerance to n-butanol and efficient recovery of product solvents from the vapor phase.

ShakeCast: Automating and Improving the Use of ShakeMap for Post-Earthquake Decision- Making and Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, K.; Wald, D. J.

2007-12-01

ShakeCast is a freely available, post-earthquake situational awareness application that automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap, compares intensity measures against users" facilities, sends notifications of potential damage to responsible parties, and generates facility damage maps and other Web-based products for emergency managers and responders. ShakeMap, a tool used to portray the extent of potentially damaging shaking following an earthquake, provides overall information regarding the affected areas. When a potentially damaging earthquake occurs, utility and other lifeline managers, emergency responders, and other critical users have an urgent need for information about the impact on their particular facilities so they can make appropriate decisions and take quick actions to ensure safety and restore system functionality. To this end, ShakeCast estimates the potential damage to a user's widely distributed facilities by comparing the complex shaking distribution with the potentially highly variable damageability of their inventory to provide a simple, hierarchical list and maps showing structures or facilities most likely impacted. All ShakeMap and ShakeCast files and products are non-propriety to simplify interfacing with existing users" response tools and to encourage user-made enhancement to the software. ShakeCast uses standard RSS and HTTP requests to communicate with the USGS Web servers that host ShakeMaps, which are widely-distributed and heavily mirrored. The RSS approach allows ShakeCast users to initiate and receive selected ShakeMap products and information on software updates. To assess facility damage estimates, ShakeCast users can combine measured or estimated ground motion parameters with damage relationships that can be pre-computed, use one of these ground motion parameters as input, and produce a multi-state discrete output of damage likelihood. Presently three common approaches are being used to provide users with an indication of damage: HAZUS-based, intensity-based, and customized damage functions. Intensity-based thresholds are for locations with poorly established damage relationships; custom damage levels are for advanced ShakeCast users such as Caltrans which produces its own set of damage functions that correspond to the specific details of each California bridge or overpass in its jurisdiction. For users whose portfolio of structures is comprised of common, standard designs, ShakeCast offers a simplified structural damage-state estimation capability adapted from the HAZUS-MH earthquake module (NIBS and FEMA, 2003). Currently the simplified fragility settings consist of 128 combinations of HAZUS model building types, construction materials, building heights, and building-code eras.

Assessment of the Effects of Various Precipitation Forcings on Flood Forecasting Potential Using WRF-Hydro Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A potential flood forecast system is under development for the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) in North Central of Texas using the WRF-Hydro model. The Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is utilized as channel routing module to simulate streamflow. Model performance analysis was conducted based on three quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE): the North Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) rainfall, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) quality-controlled stage IV estimates. Prior to hydrologic simulation, QPE performance is assessed on two time scales (daily and hourly) using the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) hourly products. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated against the USGS observed using various QPE products. The results imply that the NCEP stage IV estimates have the best accuracy among the three QPEs on both time scales, while the NLDAS rainfall performs poorly because of its coarse spatial resolution. Furthermore, precipitation bias demonstrates pronounced impact on flood forecasting skills, as the root mean squared errors are significantly reduced by replacing NLDAS rainfall with NCEP stage IV estimates. This study also demonstrates that accurate simulated results can be achieved when initial soil moisture values are well understood in the WRF-Hydro model. Future research effort will therefore be invested on incorporating data assimilation with focus on initial states of the soil properties for UTRB.

Precipitation Estimation from the ARM Distributed Radar Network During the MC3E Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theisen, A. K.; Giangrande, S. E.; Collis, S. M.

2012-12-01

The DOE - NASA Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) was the first demonstration of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility scanning precipitation radar platforms. A goal for the MC3E field campaign over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility was to demonstrate the capabilities of ARM polarimetric radar systems for providing unique insights into deep convective storm evolution and microphysics. One practical application of interest for climate studies and the forcing of cloud resolving models is improved Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) from ARM radar systems positioned at SGP. This study presents the results of ARM radar-based precipitation estimates during the 2-month MC3E campaign. Emphasis is on the usefulness of polarimetric C-band radar observations (CSAPR) for rainfall estimation to distances within 100 km of the Oklahoma SGP facility. Collocated ground disdrometer resources, precipitation profiling radars and nearby surface Oklahoma Mesonet gauge records are consulted to evaluate potential ARM radar-based rainfall products and optimal methods. Rainfall products are also evaluated against the regional NEXRAD-standard observations.

Preliminary investigation of metal and metalloid contamination of homeopathic products marketed in Croatia.

PubMed

Tumir, Hrvoje; Bosnir, Jasna; Vedrina-Dragojević, Irena; Dragun, Zrinka; Tomić, Sinisa; Puntarić, Dinko

2010-07-01

Due to their popularity as a complementary therapy in many diseases, homeopathic products of animal, vegetable, mineral and chemical origin should be tested for the presence of contaminants to prevent eventual toxic effects. Thirty samples of homeopathic products were analyzed to estimate possible contamination with potentially toxic elements: Pb, Cd, As, Hg, Cr, Ni and Zn, and to assess human exposure to these metals/metalloid as a consequence of their consumption. Atomic absorption spectrometry was used to determine metal and metalloid concentrations. Most tested products had very low metal/metalloid levels (below the limit of quantification of the method), but the metal/metalloid levels in the remaining products were in the following ranges (in microg g(-1)): Pb 0.33-1.29 (6 samples), Cd 2.78 (1 sample), As 0.22 (1 sample), Hg 0.02-0.12 (24 samples), Cr 0.40-10.27 (10 samples), Ni 0.43-55.00 (19 samples), and Zn 2.20-27.80 (11 samples). In the absence of regulatory standards for homeopathic products, the obtained results were compared to maximum allowable levels (MALs) as proposed by USP Ad Hoc Advisory Panel. Some analyzed preparations had metal levels above MALs (Pb: 2 samples; Cd: 1 sample; Ni: 2 samples). However, estimated cumulative daily intakes from tested homeopathic products were in all cases lower than permitted daily exposures for all dosage forms. The risk of bioaccumulation of metals/metalloid from the homeopathic medicines seems to be rather low, due to small quantities of those products prescribed to be applied per day, as well as insignificant metal contamination of the majority of tested products. However, the fact that particular formulations were contaminated by metals above MALs indicates potential risk and points to the necessity of regular monitoring of homeopathic products for metal contamination, due to their frequent and mostly unsupervised use. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

OH Radical Reaction Rate Coefficients, Infrared Spectrum, and Global Warming Potential of (CF3)2CFCH═CHF (HFO-1438ezy(E)).

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Vassileios C; Burkholder, James B

2016-08-25

Rate coefficients, k(T), for the OH radical + (E)-(CF3)2CFCH═CHF ((E)-1,3,4,4,4-pentafluoro-3-(trifluoromethyl)-1-butene, HFO-1438ezy(E)) gas-phase reaction were measured using pulsed laser photolysis-laser-induced fluorescence (PLP-LIF) between 214 and 380 K and 50 and 450 Torr (He or N2 bath gas) and with a relative rate method at 296 K between 100 and 400 Torr (synthetic air). Over the range of pressures included in this study, no pressure dependence in k(T) was observed. k(296 K) obtained using the two techniques agreed to within ∼3% with (3.26 ± 0.26) × 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (2σ absolute uncertainty) obtained using the PLP-LIF technique. k(T) displayed non-Arrhenius behavior that is reproduced by (7.34 ± 0.30) × 10(-19)T(2) exp[(481 ± 10)/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). With respect to OH reactive loss, the atmospheric lifetime of HFO-1438ezy(E) is estimated to be ∼36 days and HFO-1438ezy(E) is considered a very short-lived substance (VSLS) (the actual lifetime will depend on the time and location of the HFO-1438ezy(E) emission). On the basis of the HFO-1438ezy(E) infrared absorption spectrum measured in this work and its estimated lifetime, a radiative efficiency of 0.306 W m(-2) ppb(-1) (well-mixed gas) was calculated and its 100-year time-horizon global warming potential, GWP100, was estimated to be 8.6. CF3CFO, HC(O)F, and CF2O were identified using infrared spectroscopy as stable end products in the oxidation of HFO-1438ezy(E) in the presence of O2. Two additional fluorinated products were observed and theoretical calculations of the infrared spectra of likely degradation products are presented. The photochemical ozone creation potential of HFO-1438ezy(E) was estimated to be ∼2.15.

Detecting Soil Moisture Related Impacts on Gross Primary Productivity using the MODIS-based Photochemical Reflectance Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Running, S. W.; Ballantyne, A.; Guan, K.; Huemmrich, K. F.

2016-12-01

Satellite remote sensing provides continuous observations of vegetation properties that can be used to estimate ecosystem gross primary production (GPP). The Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) has been shown to be sensitive to photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE), GPP and canopy water-stress. The NASA EOS MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor provides potential PRI estimation globally at daily time step and 1-km spatial resolution for more than 10 years. Here, we use the MODIS based PRI with eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements and meteorological observations from 20 tower sites representing 5 major plant functional types (PFT) within the continental USA (CONUS) to assess GPP sensitivity to seasonal water supply variability. The sPRI (scaled PRI) derived using MODIS band 13 as a reference band (sPRI13) generally shows higher correspondence with tower GPP observations than other potential MODIS reference bands (MODIS band 1, 4, 10 and 12). The sPRI13 was used to represent soil moisture related water supply constraints to LUE within a terrestrial carbon flux model to estimate GPP (GPPPRI). The GPPPRI calculations show generally strong relationships with tower GPP observations (0.457 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.818), except for lower GPPPRI performance over evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) sites. A regional model sensitivity analysis using the sPRI13 as a proxy for soil moisture related water supply limits indicated that water restrictions limit GPP over more than 21% of the CONUS domain, particularly in northwest and southwest CONUS subregions, and drier climate areas where atmospheric moisture deficits (VPD) alone are insufficient to represent both atmosphere demand and soil water supply controls affecting productivity. Our results indicate strong potential of the MODIS sPRI13 to represent GPP sensitivity to seasonal soil moisture related water supply variability, with enhanced (1-km resolution) delineation of these processes closer to the scale of in situ tower observations, providing an effective tool to characterize sub-grid spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture related water supply controls that inform coarser scale observations and estimates determined from other satellite observations and global carbon, and climate models.

Viability of NLCD Products From IRS-P6, And From Landsat 7 Scan-gap Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coan, Michael

2007-01-01

Landcover test on Salt Lake test site illustrates potential issues with AWiFS/LISS-III for classification of certain land cover classes (evergreen, shrub/scrub, woody wetlands, emergent wetlands). Canopy and impervious graphs of product differences from source indicate slightly lower overall accuracies (shorter peaks, wider bases) for AWiFS/LISS-III, compared to L5/L7. Inspection of individual products from canopy and impervious estimate tests revealed issues with combining AWifs quadrants, and similar but less severe effects with combining multiple dates of L7 scan gap data.

Stochastic error model corrections to improve the performance of bottom-up precipitation products for hydrologic applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Ciabatta, L.; Brocca, L.

2016-12-01

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning, and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season, etc.). The recent SM2RAIN approach proposes to estimate rainfall by using satellite soil moisture observations. As opposed to traditional satellite precipitation methods, which sense cloud properties to retrieve instantaneous estimates, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite overpasses. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to substitute or improve current rainfall estimates. However, uncertainties in the SM2RAIN product are still not well known and could represent a limitation in utilizing this dataset for hydrological applications. Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty associated with SM2RAIN is necessary for enabling its use. The study is conducted over the Italian territory for a 5-yr period (2010-2014). A number of satellite precipitation error properties, typically used in error modeling, are investigated and include probability of detection, false alarm rates, missed events, spatial correlation of the error, and hit biases. After this preliminary uncertainty analysis, the potential of applying the stochastic rainfall error model SREM2D to correct SM2RAIN and to improve its performance in hydrologic applications is investigated. The use of SREM2D for characterizing the error in precipitation by SM2RAIN would be highly useful for the merging and the integration steps in its algorithm, i.e., the merging of multiple soil moisture derived products (e.g., SMAP, SMOS, ASCAT) and the integration of soil moisture derived and state of the art satellite precipitation products (e.g., GPM IMERG).

Miscanthus biomass productivity within US croplands and its potential impact on soil organic carbon

DOE PAGES

Mishra, Umakant; Torn, Margaret S.; Fingerman, Kevin

2012-08-10

Interest in bioenergy crops is increasing due to their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we combined process-based and geospatial models to estimate the potential biomass productivity of miscanthus and its potential impact on soil carbon stocks in the croplands of the continental United States. The optimum (climatic potential) rainfed productivity for field-dried miscanthus biomass ranged from 1 to 23 Mg biomass ha -1 yr -1, with a spatial average of 13 Mg ha -1 yr -1 and a coefficient of variation of 30%. This variation resulted primarily from the spatial heterogeneity of effectivemore » rainfall, growing degree days, temperature, and solar radiation interception. Cultivating miscanthus would result in a soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at the rate of 0.16–0.82 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 across the croplands due to cessation of tillage and increased biomass carbon input into the soil system. We identified about 81 million ha of cropland, primarily in the eastern United States, that could sustain economically viable (>10 Mg ha -1 yr -1) production without supplemental irrigation, of which about 14 million ha would reach optimal miscanthus growth. To meet targets of the US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 using miscanthus as feedstock, 19 million ha of cropland would be needed (spatial average 13 Mg ha -1 yr -1) or about 16% less than is currently dedicated to US corn-based ethanol production.« less

Estimating of gross primary production in an Amazon-Cerrado transitional forest using MODIS and Landsat imagery.

PubMed

Danelichen, Victor H M; Biudes, Marcelo S; Velasque, Maísa C S; Machado, Nadja G; Gomes, Raphael S R; Vourlitis, George L; Nogueira, José S

2015-09-01

The acceleration of the anthropogenic activity has increased the atmospheric carbon concentration, which causes changes in regional climate. The Gross Primary Production (GPP) is an important variable in the global carbon cycle studies, since it defines the atmospheric carbon extraction rate from terrestrial ecosystems. The objective of this study was to estimate the GPP of the Amazon-Cerrado Transitional Forest by the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) using local meteorological data and remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat 5 TM reflectance from 2005 to 2008. The GPP was estimated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) calculated by MODIS and Landsat 5 TM images. The GPP estimates were compared with measurements in a flux tower by eddy covariance. The GPP measured in the tower was consistent with higher values during the wet season and there was a trend to increase from 2005 to 2008. The GPP estimated by VPM showed the same increasing trend observed in measured GPP and had high correlation and Willmott's coefficient and low error metrics in comparison to measured GPP. These results indicated high potential of the Landsat 5 TM images to estimate the GPP of Amazon-Cerrado Transitional Forest by VPM.

High-speed machining of Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, J. A.

1983-01-01

Potential production rates and project cost savings achieved by converting the conventional machining process in manufacturing shuttle external tank panels to high speed machining (HSM) techniques were studied. Savings were projected from the comparison of current production rates with HSM rates and with rates attainable on new conventional machines. The HSM estimates were also based on rates attainable by retrofitting existing conventional equipment with high speed spindle motors and rates attainable using new state of the art machines designed and built for HSM.

Solar energy research and utilization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cherry, W. R.

1974-01-01

The role of solar energy is visualized in the heating and cooling of buildings, in the production of renewable gaseous, liquid and solid fuels, and in the production of electric power over the next 45 years. Potential impacts of solar energy on various energy markets, and estimated costs of such solar energy systems are discussed. Some typical solar energy utilization processes are described in detail. It is expected that at least 20% of the U.S. total energy requirements by 2020 will be delivered from solar energy.

Low cost solar array project: Experimental process system development unit for producing semiconductor-grade silicon using silane-to-silicon process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The design, fabrication, and installation of an experimental process system development unit (EPSDU) were analyzed. Supporting research and development were performed to provide an information data base usable for the EPSDU and for technological design and economical analysis for potential scale-up of the process. Iterative economic analyses were conducted for the estimated product cost for the production of semiconductor grade silicon in a facility capable of producing 1000-MT/Yr.

Reviews and syntheses: Calculating the global contribution of coralline algae to total carbon burial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Heijden, L. H.; Kamenos, N. A.

2015-11-01

The ongoing increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is changing the global marine environment and is causing warming and acidification of the oceans. Reduction of CO2 to a sustainable level is required to avoid further marine change. Many studies investigate the potential of marine carbon sinks (e.g. seagrass) to mitigate anthropogenic emissions, however, information on storage by coralline algae and the beds they create is scant. Calcifying photosynthetic organisms, including coralline algae, can act as a CO2 sink via photosynthesis and CaCO3 dissolution and act as a CO2 source during respiration and CaCO3 production on short-term timescales. Long-term carbon storage potential might come from the accumulation of coralline algae deposits over geological timescales. Here, the carbon storage potential of coralline algae is assessed using meta-analysis of their global organic and inorganic carbon production and the processes involved in this metabolism. Net organic and inorganic production were estimated at 330 g C m-2 yr-1 and 900 g CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 respectively giving global organic/inorganic C production of 0.7/1.8 × 109 t C yr-1. Calcium carbonate production by free-living/crustose coralline algae (CCA) corresponded to a sediment accretion of 70/450 mm kyr-1. Using this potential carbon storage for coralline algae, the global production of free-living algae/CCA was 0.4/1.2 × 109 t C yr-1 suggesting a total potential carbon sink of 1.6 × 109 tonnes per year. Coralline algae therefore have production rates similar to mangroves, salt marshes and seagrasses representing an as yet unquantified but significant carbon store, however, further empirical investigations are needed to determine the dynamics and stability of that store.

An investigation into the potential of low head hydro power in Northern Ireland for the production of electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redpath, David; Ward, Michael J.

2017-07-01

The maximum exploitable potential for low head hydroelectric sites (gross head≤10 m) in Northern Ireland (NI) was determined as 12.07 MW using a simple payback analysis for 304 potential sites investigated to derive a classification scheme in terms of economic viability. A techno-economic analysis with validated numerical models from previous research estimated the capital investment required for the development of a hydroelectric plant, using the low head Michell-Banki cross flow turbine, for the 304 sites investigated. The number of potentially viable sites in NI for low head hydro ranged from 198 to 286 with an estimated installed capacity ranging from 11.95 to 12.05 MW. Sites with a limited installed capacity were not economically viable unless increased government support in the form of longer term (25-50 years) low interest loans as well as the current (Renewables Obligations Certificates) Renewables Obligation Certificates scheme is provided and sustained.

Potential synergy: the thorium fuel cycle and rare earths processing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ault, T.; Wymer, R.; Croff, A.

2013-07-01

The use of thorium in nuclear power programs has been evaluated on a recurring basis. A concern often raised is the lack of 'thorium infrastructure'; however, for at least a part of a potential thorium fuel cycle, this may less of a problem than previously thought. Thorium is frequently encountered in association with rare earth elements and, since the U.S. last systematically evaluated the large-scale use of thorium (the 1970's,) the use of rare earth elements has increased ten-fold to approximately 200,000 metric tons per year. Integration of thorium extraction with rare earth processing has been previously described and top-levelmore » estimates have been done on thorium resource availability; however, since ores and mining operations differ markedly, what is needed is process flowsheet analysis to determine whether a specific mining operation can feasibly produce thorium as a by-product. Also, the collocation of thorium with rare earths means that, even if a thorium product stream is not developed, its presence in mining waste streams needs to be addressed and there are previous instances where this has caused issues. This study analyzes several operational mines, estimates the mines' ability to produce a thorium by-product stream, and discusses some waste management implications of recovering thorium. (authors)« less

Solar Tyrol project: using climate data for energy production estimation. The good practice of Tyrol in conceptualizing climate services.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petitta, Marcello; Wagner, Jochen; Costa, Armin; Monsorno, Roberto; Innerebner, Markus; Moser, David; Zebisch, Marc

2014-05-01

The scientific community in the last years is largely discussing the concept of "Climate services". Several definitions have been used, but it still remains a rather open concept. We used climate data from analysis and reanalysis to create a daily and hourly model of atmospheric turbidity in order to account the effect of the atmosphere on incoming solar radiation with the final aim of estimating electric production from Photovoltaic (PV) Modules in the Alps. Renewable Energy production in the Alpine Region is dominated by hydroelectricity, but the potential for photovoltaic energy production is gaining momentum. Especially the southern part of the Alps and inner Alpine regions offer good conditions for PV energy production. The combination of high irradiance values and cold air temperature in mountainous regions is well suited for solar cells. To enable more widespread currency of PV plants, PV has to become an important part in regional planning. To provide regional authorities and also private stakeholders with high quality PV energy yield climatology in the provinces of Bolzano/Bozen South Tirol (Italy) and Tyrol (Austria), the research project Solar Tyrol was inaugurated in 2012. Several methods are used to calculate very high resolution maps of solar radiation. Most of these approaches use climatological values. In this project we reconstructed the last 10 years of atmospheric turbidity using reanalysis and operational data in order to better estimate incoming solar radiation in the alpine region. Our method is divided into three steps: i) clear sky radiation: to estimate the atmospheric effect on solar radiation we calculated Linke Turbidity factor using aerosols optical depth (AOD), surface albedo, atmospheric pressure, and total water content from ECMWF and MACC analysis. ii) shadows: we calculated shadows of mountains and buildings using a 2 meter-resolution digital elevation model of the area and GIS module r.sun modified to fit our specific needs. iii) Clouds effect: clear-sky irradiance is modified using cloud index provided by Meteoswiss with very high temporal resolution (15 min within 2004 and 2012). These three steps produce daily (eventually hourly) dataset of incoming solar radiation at 25 m of horizontal resolution for the entire Tyrol region reaching 2 m horizontal resolution for the inhabited areas . The final steps provide the potential electric energy production assuming the presence of two PV technologies: cadmium telluride and polycrystalline silicon. In this case the air temperature data have been used to include the temperture-efficency factor in the PV modules. Results shows an improved accuracy in estimated incoming solar radiation compared to the standard methods used due to clouds and atmospheric turbidity calculation used in our method. Moreover we set a specific method to estimate shadows effects of close and far objects: the problem is in adopting an appropriate horizontal resolution and maintain the calculation time for the entire geographical domain relatively low. Our methods allow estimating the correct horizontal resolution for the area given the digital elevation model of the region. Finally a web-based-GIS interface has been set up to display the data to public and a spatial database has been developed to handle the large amount of data. The current results of our project demonstrate how is possible to use scientific know-how and climate products to provide relevant and simple-to-use information to stake holder and political bodies. Moreover our approach show how is possible to have a relevant impact in current political and economical fields associated to local energy production and planning.

Modeling of CBM production, CO2 injection, and tracer movement at a field CO2 sequestration site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siriwardane, Hema J.; Bowes, Benjamin D.; Bromhal, Grant S.

2012-07-01

Sequestration of carbon dioxide in unmineable coal seams is a potential technology mainly because of the potential for simultaneous enhanced coalbed methane production (ECBM). Several pilot tests have been performed around the globe leading to mixed results. Numerous modeling efforts have been carried out successfully to model methane production and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injection. Sensitivity analyses and history matching along with several optimization tools were used to estimate reservoir properties and to investigate reservoir performance. Geological and geophysical techniques have also been used to characterize field sequestration sites and to inspect reservoir heterogeneity. The fate and movement of injectedmore » CO{sub 2} can be determined by using several monitoring techniques. Monitoring of perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers is one of these monitoring technologies. As a part of this monitoring technique, a small fraction of a traceable fluid is added to the injection wellhead along with the CO{sub 2} stream at different times to monitor the timing and location of the breakthrough in nearby monitoring wells or offset production wells. A reservoir modeling study was performed to simulate a pilot sequestration site located in the San Juan coal basin of northern New Mexico. Several unknown reservoir properties at the field site were estimated by modeling the coal seam as a dual porosity formation and by history matching the methane production and CO{sub 2} injection. In addition to reservoir modeling of methane production and CO{sub 2} injection, tracer injection was modeled. Tracers serve as a surrogate for determining potential leakage of CO{sub 2}. The tracer was modeled as a non-reactive gas and was injected into the reservoir as a mixture along with CO{sub 2}. Geologic and geometric details of the field site, numerical modeling details of methane production, CO{sub 2} injection, and tracer injection are presented in this paper. Moreover, the numerical predictions of the tracer arrival times were compared with the measured field data. Results show that tracer modeling is useful in investigating movement of injected CO{sub 2} into the coal seam at the field site. Also, such new modeling techniques can be utilized to determine potential leakage pathways, and to investigate reservoir anisotropy and heterogeneity.« less

Life cycle assessment of first-generation biofuels using a nitrogen crop model.

PubMed

Gallejones, P; Pardo, G; Aizpurua, A; del Prado, A

2015-02-01

This paper presents an alternative approach to assess the impacts of biofuel production using a method integrating the simulated values of a new semi-empirical model at the crop production stage within a life cycle assessment (LCA). This new approach enabled us to capture some of the effects that climatic conditions and crop management have on soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, crop yields and other nitrogen (N) losses. This analysis considered the whole system to produce 1 MJ of biofuel (bioethanol from wheat and biodiesel from rapeseed). Non-renewable energy use, global warming potential (GWP), acidification, eutrophication and land competition are considered as potential environmental impacts. Different co-products were handled by system expansion. The aim of this study was (i) to evaluate the variability due to site-specific conditions of climate and fertiliser management of the LCA of two different products: biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from wheat produced in the Basque Country (Northern Spain), and (ii) to improve the estimations of the LCA impacts due to N losses (N₂O, NO₃, NH₃), normally estimated with unspecific emission factors (EFs), that contribute to the impact categories analysed in the LCA of biofuels at local scale. Using biodiesel and bioethanol derived from rapeseed and wheat instead of conventional diesel and gasoline, respectively, would reduce non-renewable energy dependence (-55%) and GWP (-40%), on average, but would increase eutrophication (42 times more potential). An uncertainty analysis for GWP impact showed that the variability associated with the prediction of the major contributor to global warming potential (soil N₂O) can significantly affect the results from the LCA. Therefore the use of a model to account for local factors will improve the precision of the assessment and reduce the uncertainty associated with the convenience of the use of biofuels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antecedent Moisture and Biological Inertia as Predictors of Plant and Ecosystem Productivity in Arid and Semiarid Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, K.

2011-12-01

Many plant and ecosystem processes in arid and semiarid systems may be affected by antecedent environmental conditions (e.g., precipitation patterns, soil water availability, temperature) that integrate over past days, weeks, months, seasons, or years. However, the importance of such antecedent exogenous effects relative to conditions occurring at the time of the observed process is relatively unexplored. Even less is known about the potential importance of antecedent endogenous effects that describe the influence of past ecosystem states on the current ecosystem state; e.g., how is current ecosystem productivity related to past productivity patterns? We hypothesize that incorporation of antecedent exogenous and endogenous factors can improve our predictive understanding of many plant and ecosystem processes, especially in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Furthermore, the common approach to quantifying the effects of antecedent (exogenous) variables relies on arbitrary, deterministic definitions of antecedent variables that (1) may not accurately describe the role of antecedent conditions and (2) ignore uncertainty associated with applying deterministic definitions. In this study, we employ a stochastic framework for (1) computing the antecedent variables that estimates the relative importance of conditions experienced each time unit into the past, also providing insight into potential lag responses, and (2) estimating the effect of antecedent factors on the response variable of interest. We employ this approach to explore the potential roles of antecedent exogenous and endogenous influences in three settings that illustrate the: (1) importance of antecedent precipitation for net primary productivity in the shortgrass steppe in northern Colorado, (2) dependency of tree growth on antecedent precipitation and past growth states for pinyon growing in western Colorado, and (3) influence of antecedent soil water and prior root status on observed root growth in the Mojave Desert FACE experiment. All three examples suggest that antecedent conditions are critical to predicting different indices of productivity such that the incorporation of antecedent effects explained an additional 20-40% of the variation in the productivity responses. Antecedent endogenous factors were important for understanding tree and root growth, suggesting a potential biological inertia effect that is likely linked to labile carbon storage and allocation strategies. The role of antecedent exogenous (water) variables suggests a lag response whose duration and timing differs according to the time scale of the response variable. In summary, antecedent water availability and past endogenous states appear critical to understanding plant and ecosystem productivity in arid and semiarid systems, and this study describes a stochastic framework for quantifying the potential influence of such antecedent conditions.

Stress wave sorting of red maple logs for structural quality

Treesearch

Xiping Wang; Robert J. Ross; David W. Green; Brian Brashaw; Karl Englund; Michael Wolcott

2004-01-01

Existing log grading procedures in the United States make only visual assessments of log quality. These procedures do not incorporate estimates of the modulus of elasticity (MOE) of logs. It is questionable whether the visual grading procedures currently used for logs adequately assess the potential quality of structural products manufactured from them, especially...

Nondestructive evaluation for sorting red maple logs

Treesearch

Xiping Wang; Robert J. Ross; David W. Green; Karl Englund; Michael Wolcott

2000-01-01

Existing log grading procedures in the United States make only visual assessments of log quality. These procedures do not incorporate estimates of the modulus of elasticity (MOE) of logs. It is questionable whether the visual grading procedures currently used for logs adequately assess the potential quality of structural products manufactured from them, especially...

Applying Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks to link toxicity testing data to exposure-relevant and biologically-relevant responses

EPA Science Inventory

Hazard assessment for nanomaterials often involves applying in vitro dose-response data to estimate potential health risks that arise from exposure to products that contain nanomaterials. However, much uncertainty is inherent in relating bioactivities observed in an in vitro syst...

CORRECTION FOR THE IMPACTS OF COVARIANCE BETWEEN CONCENTRATION AND DEPOSITION VELOCITY OR CASTNET HNO, DEPOSITION ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

The covariance between hourly concentration (C) and deposition velocity (V) for various atmospheric; species may act to bias the, deposition (D) computed from the product of the weekly average C and 'V. This is a potential problem for the CASTNet filter pack (FP) species, nitric ...

CORRECTION FACTORS FOR COVARIANCE BETWEEN CONCENTRATION AND DEPOSITION VELOCITY ON CASTNET HNO3 DEPOSITION ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

The covariance between hourly concentration (C) and deposition velocity (V) for various atmospheric; species may act to bias the, deposition (D) computed from the product of the weekly average C and 'V. This is a potential problem for the CASTNet filter pack (FP) species, nitric...

Status and potential of terrestrial carbon sequestration in West Virginia

Treesearch

Benktesh D. Sharma; Jingxin Wang

2011-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystem management offers cost-effective ways to enhance carbon (C) sequestration. This study utilized C stock and C sequestration in forest and agricultural lands, abandoned mine lands, and harvested wood products to estimate the net current annual C sequestration in West Virginia. Several management options within these components were simulated using a...

Protecting Small Communities Through Domestic Policing: Adopting an Early Warning System to Recognize Potential Terrorist Activity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

product of program activities or services used. For example, police officers have the authority to use force against the public such as their power......estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services

Community forestry enterprises in Mexico: sustainability and competitiveness

Treesearch

Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert R. Davis; Diana Rodriguez Paredes; Ramon Mollenhauer; Yoanna Kraus Elsin; Gregory E. Frey; Ignacio A. Gonzalez Hernandez; Humberto Albarran Hurtado; Anita Mercedes Salazar Cruz; Diana Nacibe Chemor Salas

2015-01-01

Community-based forest management such as Community Forests Enterprises (CFEs), has potential to generate positive socio-environmental and economic outcomes. We performed a detailed survey of financial and production parameters for 30 of the approximately 992 CFEs in Mexico in order to estimate costs, income, profits and sustainability, but only two of these had...

Decline in Values of Slash Pine Stands Infected with Fusiform Rust

Treesearch

F.E. Bridgwater; W.D. Smith

2002-01-01

Losses in product values due tofusiform rust, caused by Cronartium quercuum (Berk.) Miyabe ex Shirai f. sp. fusiforme, were estimated from four, 2.5-yr-old slash pine, Pinus elliotii Engelm., plantations planted in southern Mississippi over a range of sites with different growth potential and expected rust infection levels. The...

The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

PubMed

Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

2017-10-11

Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

The costs of functional gastrointestinal disorders and related signs and symptoms in infants: a systematic literature review and cost calculation for England.

PubMed

Mahon, James; Lifschitz, Carlos; Ludwig, Thomas; Thapar, Nikhil; Glanville, Julie; Miqdady, Mohamad; Saps, Miguel; Quak, Seng Hock; Lenoir Wijnkoop, Irene; Edwards, Mary; Wood, Hannah; Szajewska, Hania

2017-11-14

To estimate the cost of functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGIDs) and related signs and symptoms in infants to the third party payer and to parents. To estimate the cost of illness (COI) of infant FGIDs, a two-stage process was applied: a systematic literature review and a COI calculation. As no pertinent papers were found in the systematic literature review, a 'de novo' analysis was performed. For the latter, the potential costs for the third party payer (the National Health Service (NHS) in England) and for parents/carers for the treatment of FGIDs in infants were calculated, by using publicly available data. In constructing the calculation, estimates and assumptions (where necessary) were chosen to provide a lower bound (minimum) of the potential overall cost. In doing so, the interpretation of the calculation is that the true COI can be no lower than that estimated. Our calculation estimated that the total costs of treating FGIDs in infants in England were at least £72.3 million per year in 2014/2015 of which £49.1 million was NHS expenditure on prescriptions, community care and hospital treatment. Parents incurred £23.2 million in costs through purchase of over the counter remedies. The total cost presented here is likely to be a significant underestimate as only lower bound estimates were used where applicable, and for example, costs of alternative therapies, inpatient treatments or diagnostic tests, and time off work by parents could not be adequately estimated and were omitted from the calculation. The number and kind of prescribed products and products sold over the counter to treat FGIDs suggest that there are gaps between treatment guidelines, which emphasise parental reassurance and nutritional advice, and their implementation. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The costs of functional gastrointestinal disorders and related signs and symptoms in infants: a systematic literature review and cost calculation for England

PubMed Central

Mahon, James; Lifschitz, Carlos; Ludwig, Thomas; Thapar, Nikhil; Glanville, Julie; Miqdady, Mohamad; Saps, Miguel; Quak, Seng Hock; Lenoir Wijnkoop, Irene; Wood, Hannah; Szajewska, Hania

2017-01-01

Objectives To estimate the cost of functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGIDs) and related signs and symptoms in infants to the third party payer and to parents. Study design To estimate the cost of illness (COI) of infant FGIDs, a two-stage process was applied: a systematic literature review and a COI calculation. As no pertinent papers were found in the systematic literature review, a ‘de novo’ analysis was performed. For the latter, the potential costs for the third party payer (the National Health Service (NHS) in England) and for parents/carers for the treatment of FGIDs in infants were calculated, by using publicly available data. In constructing the calculation, estimates and assumptions (where necessary) were chosen to provide a lower bound (minimum) of the potential overall cost. In doing so, the interpretation of the calculation is that the true COI can be no lower than that estimated. Results Our calculation estimated that the total costs of treating FGIDs in infants in England were at least £72.3 million per year in 2014/2015 of which £49.1 million was NHS expenditure on prescriptions, community care and hospital treatment. Parents incurred £23.2 million in costs through purchase of over the counter remedies. Conclusions The total cost presented here is likely to be a significant underestimate as only lower bound estimates were used where applicable, and for example, costs of alternative therapies, inpatient treatments or diagnostic tests, and time off work by parents could not be adequately estimated and were omitted from the calculation. The number and kind of prescribed products and products sold over the counter to treat FGIDs suggest that there are gaps between treatment guidelines, which emphasise parental reassurance and nutritional advice, and their implementation. PMID:29138194

The potential of using remote sensing data to estimate air-sea CO2 exchange in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parard, Gaëlle; Rutgersson, Anna; Parampil, Sindu Raj; Alexandre Charantonis, Anastase

2017-12-01

In this article, we present the first climatological map of air-sea CO2 flux over the Baltic Sea based on remote sensing data: estimates of pCO2 derived from satellite imaging using self-organizing map classifications along with class-specific linear regressions (SOMLO methodology) and remotely sensed wind estimates. The estimates have a spatial resolution of 4 km both in latitude and longitude and a monthly temporal resolution from 1998 to 2011. The CO2 fluxes are estimated using two types of wind products, i.e. reanalysis winds and satellite wind products, the higher-resolution wind product generally leading to higher-amplitude flux estimations. Furthermore, the CO2 fluxes were also estimated using two methods: the method of Wanninkhof et al. (2013) and the method of Rutgersson and Smedman (2009). The seasonal variation in fluxes reflects the seasonal variation in pCO2 unvaryingly over the whole Baltic Sea, with high winter CO2 emissions and high pCO2 uptakes. All basins act as a source for the atmosphere, with a higher degree of emission in the southern regions (mean source of 1.6 mmol m-2 d-1 for the South Basin and 0.9 for the Central Basin) than in the northern regions (mean source of 0.1 mmol m-2 d-1) and the coastal areas act as a larger sink (annual uptake of -4.2 mmol m-2 d-1) than does the open sea (-4 mmol m-2 d-1). In its entirety, the Baltic Sea acts as a small source of 1.2 mmol m-2 d-1 on average and this annual uptake has increased from 1998 to 2012.

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Chemical and toxicological characteristics of conventional and low-TSNA moist snuff tobacco products.

PubMed

Song, Min-Ae; Marian, Catalin; Brasky, Theodore M; Reisinger, Sarah; Djordjevic, Mirjana; Shields, Peter G

2016-03-14

Use of smokeless tobacco products (STPs) is associated with oral cavity cancer and other health risks. Comprehensive analysis for chemical composition and toxicity is needed to compare conventional and newer STPs with lower tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs) yields. Seven conventional and 12 low-TSNA moist snuff products purchased in the U.S., Sweden, and South Africa were analyzed for 18 chemical constituents (International Agency for Research on Cancer classified carcinogens), pH, nicotine, and free nicotine. Chemicals were compared in each product using Wilcoxon rank-sum test and principle component analysis (PCA). Conventional compared to low-TSNA moist snuff products had higher ammonia, benzo[a]pyrene, cadmium, nickel, nicotine, nitrate, and TSNAs and had lower arsenic in dry weight content and per mg nicotine. Lead and chromium were significantly higher in low-TSNA moist snuff products. PCA showed a clear difference for constituents between conventional and low-TSNA moist snuff products. Differences among products were reduced when considered on a per mg nicotine basis. As one way to contextualize differences in constituent levels, probabilistic lifetime cancer risk was estimated for chemicals included in The University of California's carcinogenic potency database (CPDB). Estimated probabilistic cancer risks were 3.77-fold or 3-fold higher in conventional compared to low-TSNA moist snuff products under dry weight or under per mg nicotine content, respectively. In vitro testing for the STPs indicated low level toxicity and no substantial differences. The comprehensive chemical characterization of both conventional and low-TSNA moist snuff products from this study provides a broader assessment of understanding differences in carcinogenic potential of the products. In addition, the high levels and probabilistic cancer risk estimates for certain chemical constituents of smokeless tobacco products will further inform regulatory decision makers and aid them in their efforts to reduce carcinogen exposure in smokeless tobacco products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current and potential carbon stocks in Moso bamboo forests in China.

PubMed

Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Lu, Dengsheng; Mo, Lufeng; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Zhou, Yufeng

2015-06-01

Bamboo forests provide important ecosystem services and play an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. Of the approximately 500 bamboo species in China, Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens) is the most important one in terms of distribution, timber value, and other economic values. In this study, we estimated current and potential carbon stocks in China's Moso bamboo forests and in their products. The results showed that Moso bamboo forests in China stored about 611.15 ± 142.31 Tg C, 75% of which was in the top 60 cm soil, 22% in the biomass of Moso bamboos, and 3% in the ground layer (i.e., bamboo litter, shrub, and herb layers). Moso bamboo products store 10.19 ± 2.54 Tg C per year. The potential carbon stocks reach 1331.4 ± 325.1 Tg C, while the potential C stored in products is 29.22 ± 7.31 Tg C a(-1). Our results indicate that Moso bamboo forests and products play a critical role in C sequestration. The information gained in this study will facilitate policy decisions concerning carbon sequestration and management of Moso bamboo forests in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Various Environments Factors and Adaptive Management Strategies on Food Crops in the 21st Century Based on a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Lin, T. S.; Lawrence, P.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2017-12-01

Environmental factors - characterized by increasing levels of CO2, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns - present potential risks to global food supply. To date, understanding of environmental factors' effects on crop production remains uncertain due to (1) uncertainties in projected trends of these factors and their spatial and temporal variability; (2) uncertainties in the physiological, genetic and molecular basis of crop adaptation to adaptive management practices (e.g. change in planting time, irrigation and N fertilization etc.) and (3) uncertainties in current land surface models to estimate the response of crop production to changes in environmental factors and management strategies. In this study we apply a process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to assess the impact of various environmental factors and management strategies on the production of row crops (corn, soybean and wheat) at regional and global scales. Results are compared to corresponding simulations performed with the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Each model is driven with historical atmospheric forcing data (1901-2005), and projected atmospheric forcing data under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) from CESM CMIP5 simulations to estimate the effects of different climate change projections on potential productivity of food crops at a global scale. For each set of atmospheric forcing data, production of each crop is simulated with and without inclusion of adaptive management practices (e.g. application of irrigation, N fertilization, change in planting time and crop cultivars etc.) to assess the effect of adaptation on projected crop production over the 21st century. In detail, three questions are addressed: (1) what is the impact of different climate change projections on global crop production; (2) what is the effect of adaptive management practices on projected crop production; and (3) how do differences in model mechanisms in ISAM and CLM4.5 impact projected global crop production and adaptive management practices (irrigation and N fertilizer) over the 21st century. The major outcomes of this study will help to understand the uncertainties in potential productivity of food crops under different environmental conditions and management practices.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Merging bottom-up and top-down precipitation products using a stochastic error model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, Viviana; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca

2017-04-01

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation is of great importance for water resources management, agricultural planning, and forecasting and monitoring of natural hazards such as flash floods and landslides. In situ observations are limited around the Earth, especially in remote areas (e.g., complex terrain, dense vegetation), but currently available satellite precipitation products are able to provide global precipitation estimates with an accuracy that depends upon many factors (e.g., type of storms, temporal sampling, season etc…). Recently, Brocca et al. (2014) have proposed an alternative approach (i.e., SM2RAIN) that allows to estimate rainfall from space by using satellite soil moisture observations. In contrast with classical satellite precipitation products which sense the cloud properties to retrieve the instantaneous precipitation, this new bottom-up approach makes use of two consecutive soil moisture measurements for obtaining an estimate of the fallen precipitation within the interval between two satellite passes. As a result, the nature of the measurement is different and complementary to the one of classical precipitation products and could provide a different valid perspective to improve current satellite rainfall estimates via appropriate integration between the products (i.e., SM2RAIN plus a classical satellite rainfall product). However, whether SM2RAIN is able or not to improve the performance of any state-of-the-art satellite rainfall product is much dependent upon an adequate quantification and characterization of the relative errors of the products. In this study, the stochastic rainfall error model SREM2D (Hossain et al. 2006) is used for characterizing the retrieval error of both SM2RAIN and a state-of-the-art satellite precipitation product (i.e., 3B42RT). The error characterization serves for an optimal integration between SM2RAIN and 3B42RT for enhancing the capability of the resulting integrated product (i.e. SM2RAIN+3B42RT) in operational hydrology. The study, conducted in Italy for a 5-yr period (2010-2014) using a dense network of raingauges (about 3000) as a benchmark, demonstrates that the integration is able to enhance the correlation and the root mean squared error of SM2RAIN+3B42RT with respect to the parent products. This suggests a potential benefit of merging SM2RAIN derived rainfall with state-of-the-art satellite precipitation estimates for creating a product characterized by higher accuracy and better performance when used in the contest of operational hydrology. REFERENCES 1. Brocca, L.; Ciabatta, L.; Massari, C.; Moramarco, T.; Hahn, S.; Hasenauer, S.; Kidd, R.; Dorigo, W.; Wagner, W.; Levizzani, V. Soil as a natural rain gauge: Estimating global rainfall from satellite soil moisture data. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2014, 119, 5128-5141. 2. Hossain, F.; Anagnostou, E. N. A two-dimensional satellite rainfall error model. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. 2006, 44, 1511-1522.

Molecular dynamics studies of water deposition on hematite surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvamme, Bjørn; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Haynes, Martin

2012-12-01

The interest in carbon dioxide for enhanced oil recovery is increasing proportional to the decrease in naturally driven oil production and also due to the increasing demand for reduced emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Transport of carbon dioxide in offshore pipelines involves high pressure and low temperatures which may lead to the formation of hydrate between residual water dissolved in carbon dioxide. The critical question is whether the water at some condition of temperature and pressure will drop out as liquid droplets or as water adsorbed on the surfaces of the pipeline and then subsequently form hydrates heterogeneously. In this work we have used the 6-311G basis set with B3LYP to estimate the charge distribution of different sizes of hematite crystals. The obtained surface charge distribution were kept unchanged while the inner charge distribution where scaled so as to result in an overall neutral crystal. These rust particles were embedded in water and chemical potential for adsorbed water molecules were estimated through thermodynamic integration and compared to similar estimates for same size water cluster. Estimated values of water chemical potentials indicate that it is thermodynamically favorable for water to adsorb on hematite, and that evaluation of potential carbon dioxide hydrate formation conditions and kinetics should be based this sequence of processes.

Most microbeads in a preliminary survey of personal care products are smaller than the typical 330µm trawl mesh size used in surface water surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conkle, J. L.; Baez-Del Valle, C.; Turner, J.

2016-02-01

Research on plastic debris in aquatic environments, particularly the ocean, has recently exploded due to our emerging understanding of their ubiquitous presence and organismal effects. One study estimated that hundreds of thousands of tons of plastic float at our ocean surface, while another estimated that up to 12.7 million metric tons enter the ocean in a year. These studies produced reasonable estimates of oceanic loads, but research is needed to understand the sources and properties of plastics, particularly microplastics, entering the environment. In this preliminary study, polyethylene (PE) microbeads from 6 facial scrubs, 4 body washes and 3 toothpaste products were extracted and quantified by mass and particle count for the following size classes: 50, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500 and 1000µm. Within the product classes, roughly half (face scrub, 55% and body wash, 48%) to nearly all (toothpaste, 97%) of PE microbeads on a mass basis were smaller than 300µm in diameter. When examining the size distribution by particle count, the results were even more astounding. Nearly all PE microbeads were smaller than 300µm for face scrub (95%), body wash (97%) and toothpaste (100%). The 300µm particle diameter is significant, as major surveys in the published literature (Eriksen et al., 2014; Law et al, 2014) used 330µm or greater mesh size to sample plastic debris and estimate oceanic plastic loads. Therefore, these published surveys, which are some of our best estimates of plastic debris at the ocean surface, likely underestimate total environmental loads because they may exclude half of the mass and nearly all of the individual PE microbead particles that enter our waste stream and potentially surface waters after the use of personal care products.

Soil-Water Balance (SWB) model estimates of soil-moisture variability and groundwater recharge in the South Platte watershed, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, A. M.; Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Ruybal, C. J.

2015-12-01

Unconventional energy production in semi-arid regions places additional stress on already over-allocated water systems. Production of shale gas and oil resources in northern Colorado has rapidly increased since 2010, and is expected to continue growing due to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. This unconventional energy production has implications for the availability of water in the South Platte watershed, where water demand for hydraulic fracturing of unconventional shale resources reached ~16,000 acre-feet in 2014. Groundwater resources are often exploited to meet water demands for unconventional energy production in regions like the South Platte basin, where surface water supply is limited and allocated across multiple uses. Since groundwater is often a supplement to surface water in times of drought and peak demand, variability in modeled recharge estimates can significantly impact projected availability. In the current work we used the Soil-Water Balance Model (SWB) to assess the variability in model estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) and soil-moisture conditions utilized to derive estimates of groundwater recharge. Using both point source and spatially distributed data, we compared modeled actual ET and soil-moisture derived from several potential ET methods, such as Thornthwaite-Mather, Jense-Haise, Turc, and Hargreaves-Samani, to historic soil moisture conditions obtained through sources including the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). In addition to a basin-scale analysis, we divided the South Platte watershed into sub-basins according to land cover to evaluate model capabilities of estimating soil-moisture parameters with variations in land cover and topography. Results ultimately allow improved prediction of groundwater recharge under future scenarios of climate and land cover change. This work also contributes to complementary subsurface groundwater modeling and decision support modeling in the South Platte.

Cost benefits of ergonomic intervention in a hospital: a preliminary study using Oxenburgh's productivity model.

PubMed

Busse, M; Bridger, B

1997-09-01

This case study of absenteeism amongst nurses was carried out using the productivity model of Oxenburgh (1991). Data on absenteeism amongst nurses were collected from one private hospital. Areas of high risk of injury were identified and the presence of ergonomic risk factors determined. The productivity model was used to calculate the costs of absenteeism in terms of actual rates of pay and loss of productivity. Potential benefits resulting from ergonomic improvements to the work environment were estimated using the productivity model. The model predicted that even modest reductions in injury would justify the additional expenditure in a relatively short period of time. Further investigations of injuries to nurses in both State and Private Sector Hospitals seem to be justified.

Win-Win for Wind and Wildlife: A Vision to Facilitate Sustainable Development

PubMed Central

Kiesecker, Joseph M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Fargione, Joe; Doherty, Kevin; Foresman, Kerry R.; Kunz, Thomas H.; Naugle, Dave; Nibbelink, Nathan P.; Niemuth, Neal D.

2011-01-01

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ∼7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ∼3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ∼2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation. PMID:21533285

Win-win for wind and wildlife: a vision to facilitate sustainable development.

PubMed

Kiesecker, Joseph M; Evans, Jeffrey S; Fargione, Joe; Doherty, Kevin; Foresman, Kerry R; Kunz, Thomas H; Naugle, Dave; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Niemuth, Neal D

2011-04-13

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ∼7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ∼3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ∼2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation.

Retrieval of daily gross primary production over Europe and Africa from an ensemble of SEVIRI/MSG products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, B.; Sanchez-Ruiz, S.; Gilabert, M. A.; Moreno, A.; Campos-Taberner, M.; García-Haro, F. J.; Trigo, I. F.; Aurela, M.; Brümmer, C.; Carrara, A.; De Ligne, A.; Gianelle, D.; Grünwald, T.; Limousin, J. M.; Lohila, A.; Mammarella, I.; Sottocornola, M.; Steinbrecher, R.; Tagesson, T.

2018-03-01

The main goal of this paper is to derive a method for a daily gross primary production (GPP) product over Europe and Africa taking the full advantage of the SEVIRI/MSG satellite products from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) sensors delivered from the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) system. Special attention is paid to model the daily GPP response from an optimized Montheith's light use efficiency model under dry conditions by controlling water shortage limitations from the actual evapotranspiration and the potential evapotranspiration (PET). The PET was parameterized using the mean daily air temperature at 2 m (Ta) from ERA-Interim data. The GPP product (MSG GPP) was produced for 2012 and assessed by direct site-level comparison with GPP from eddy covariance data (EC GPP). MSG GPP presents relative bias errors lower than 40% for the most forest vegetation types with a high agreement (r > 0.7) when compared with EC GPP. For drylands, MSG GPP reproduces the seasonal variations related to water limitation in a good agreement with site level GPP estimates (RMSE = 2.11 g m-2 day-1; MBE = -0.63 g m-2 day-1), especially for the dry season. A consistency analysis against other GPP satellite products (MOD17A2 and FLUXCOM) reveals a high consistency among products (RMSD < 1.5 g m-2 day-1) over Europe, North and South Africa. The major GPP disagreement arises over moist biomes in central Africa (RMSD > 3.0 g m-2 day-1) and over dry biomes with MSG GPP estimates lower than FLUXCOM (MBD up to -3.0 g m-2 day-1). This newly derived product has the potential for analysing spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of GPP at the MSG spatial resolutions on a daily basis allowing to better capture the GPP dynamics and magnitude.

Prediction of gas production using well logs, Cretaceous of north-central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hester, T.C.

1999-01-01

Cretaceous gas sands underlie much of east-central Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, eastern Montana, western North Dakota, and parts of South Dakota and Wyoming. Estimates of recoverable biogenic methane from these rocks in the United States are as high as 91 TCF. In northern Montana, current production is localized around a few major structural features, while vast areas in between these structures are not being exploited. Although the potential for production exists, the lack of commercial development is due to three major factors: 1) the lack of pipeline infrastructure; 2) the lack of predictable and reliable rates of production; and 3) the difficulty in recognizing and selecting potentially productive gas-charged intervals. Unconventional (tight), continuous-type reservoirs, such as those in the Cretaceous of the northern Great Plains, are not well suited for conventional methods of formation evaluation. Pay zones frequently consist only of thinly laminated intervals of sandstone, silt, shale stringers, and disseminated clay. Potential producing intervals are commonly unrecognizable on well logs, and thus are overlooked. To aid in the identification and selection of potential producing intervals, a calibration system is developed here that empirically links the 'gas effect' to gas production. The calibration system combines the effects of porosity, water saturation, and clay content into a single 'gas-production index' (GPI) that relates the in-situ rock with production potential. The fundamental method for isolating the gas effect for calibration is a crossplot of neutron porosity minus density porosity vs gamma-ray intensity. Well-log and gas-production data used for this study consist of 242 perforated intervals from 53 gas-producing wells. Interval depths range from about 250 to 2400 ft. Gas volumes in the peak calendar year of production range from about 4 to 136 MMCF. Nine producing formations are represented. Producing-interval data show that porosity and gas production are closely linked to clay volume. Highest porosities and maximum gas production occur together at an intermediate clay content of about 12% (60 API). As clay volume exceeds 35% (130 API), minimum porosity required for production increases rapidly, and the number of potential producing intervals declines. Gas production from intervals where clay volume exceeds 50% is rare. Effective porosities of less than about 8% are probably inadequate for commercial gas production in these rocks regardless of clay content.

Estimating agricultural yield gap in Africa using MODIS NDVI dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Y.; Zhu, W.; Luo, X.; Liu, J.; Cui, X.

2013-12-01

Global agriculture has undergone a period of rapid intensification characterized as 'Green Revolution', except for Africa, which is the region most affected by unreliable food access and undernourishment. Increasing crop production will be one of the most challenges and most effectual way to mitigate food insecurity there, as Africa's agricultural yield is on a much lower level comparing to global average. In this study we characterize cropland vegetation phenology in Africa based on MODIS NDVI time series between 2000 and 2012. Cumulated NDVI is a proxy for net primary productivity and used as an indicator for evaluating the potential yield gap in Africa. It is achieved via translating the gap between optimum attainable productivity level in each classification of cropping systems and actual productivity level by the relationship of cumulated NDVI and cereal-equivalent production. The results show most of cropland area in Africa have decreasing trend in cumulated NDVI, distributing in the Nile Delta, Eastern Africa and central of semi-arid to arid savanna area, except significant positive cumulated NDVI trends are mainly found between Senegal and Benin. Using cumulated NDVI and statistics of cereal equivalent production, we find remarkable potential yield gap at the Horn of East Africa (especially in Somalia), Northern Africa (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia). Meanwhile, countries locating at the savanna area near Sahel desert and South Africa also show significant potential, though they already have a relatively high level of productivity. Our results can help provide policy recommendation for local government or NGO to tackle food security problems by identifying zones with high potential of yield improvement.

Regional estimates of reef carbonate dynamics and productivity Using Landsat 7 ETM+, and potential impacts from ocean acidification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moses, C.S.; Andrefouet, S.; Kranenburg, C.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

2009-01-01

Using imagery at 30 m spatial resolution from the most recent Landsat satellite, the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), we scale up reef metabolic productivity and calcification from local habitat-scale (10 -1 to 100 km2) measurements to regional scales (103 to 104 km2). Distribution and spatial extent of the North Florida Reef Tract (NFRT) habitats come from supervised classification of the Landsat imagery within independent Landsat-derived Millennium Coral Reef Map geomorphologic classes. This system minimizes the depth range and variability of benthic habitat characteristics found in the area of supervised classification and limits misclassification. Classification of Landsat imagery into 5 biotopes (sand, dense live cover, sparse live cover, seagrass, and sparse seagrass) by geomorphologic class is >73% accurate at regional scales. Based on recently published habitat-scale in situ metabolic measurements, gross production (P = 3.01 ?? 109 kg C yr -1), excess production (E = -5.70 ?? 108 kg C yr -1), and calcification (G = -1.68 ?? 106 kg CaCO 3 yr-1) are estimated over 2711 km2 of the NFRT. Simple models suggest sensitivity of these values to ocean acidification, which will increase local dissolution of carbonate sediments. Similar approaches could be applied over large areas with poorly constrained bathymetry or water column properties and minimal metabolic sampling. This tool has potential applications for modeling and monitoring large-scale environmental impacts on reef productivity, such as the influence of ocean acidification on coral reef environments. ?? Inter-Research 2009.

VirtualToxLab — A platform for estimating the toxic potential of drugs, chemicals and natural products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vedani, Angelo, E-mail: angelo.vedani@unibas.ch; Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 50, 4056 Basel; Dobler, Max

The VirtualToxLab is an in silico technology for estimating the toxic potential (endocrine and metabolic disruption, some aspects of carcinogenicity and cardiotoxicity) of drugs, chemicals and natural products. The technology is based on an automated protocol that simulates and quantifies the binding of small molecules towards a series of proteins, known or suspected to trigger adverse effects. The toxic potential, a non-linear function ranging from 0.0 (none) to 1.0 (extreme), is derived from the individual binding affinities of a compound towards currently 16 target proteins: 10 nuclear receptors (androgen, estrogen α, estrogen β, glucocorticoid, liver X, mineralocorticoid, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptormore » γ, progesterone, thyroid α, and thyroid β), four members of the cytochrome P450 enzyme family (1A2, 2C9, 2D6, and 3A4), a cytosolic transcription factor (aryl hydrocarbon receptor) and a potassium ion channel (hERG). The interface to the technology allows building and uploading molecular structures, viewing and downloading results and, most importantly, rationalizing any prediction at the atomic level by interactively analyzing the binding mode of a compound with its target protein(s) in real-time 3D. The VirtualToxLab has been used to predict the toxic potential for over 2500 compounds: the results are posted on (http://www.virtualtoxlab.org). The free platform — the OpenVirtualToxLab — is accessible (in client–server mode) over the Internet. It is free of charge for universities, governmental agencies, regulatory bodies and non-profit organizations. -- Highlights: ► In silico technology for estimating the toxic potential of drugs and chemicals. ► Simulation of binding towards 16 proteins suspected to trigger adverse effects. ► Mechanistic interpretation and real-time 3D visualization. ► Accessible over the Internet. ► Free of charge for universities, governmental agencies, regulatory bodies and NPOs.« less

Importance of inorganic geochemical characteristics on assessment of shale gas potential in the Devonian Horn River Formation of western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sung Kyung; Shinn, Young Jae; Choi, Jiyoung; Lee, Hyun Suk

2017-04-01

The gas generation and storage potentials of shale has mostly been assessed by original TOC (TOCo) and original kerogen type. However, in the Horn River Formation, organic geochemical tools and analysis are barely sufficient for assessing the TOCo and original kerogen type because residual carbon contents represent up to 90% of TOC in shales. Major and trace elements are used as proxies for the bottom water oxygen level, for terrestrial sediment input and for productivity, which is related with variation of kerogen type. By using the inorganic geochemical proxies, we attempt to assess original kerogen type in shale gas formation and suggest its implication for HIo (original Hydrogen Index) estimation. The estimated HIo in this study allows us to calculate a reliable TOCo. These results provide new insights into the accurate estimation of the hydrocarbon potential of shale gas resources. The inorganic geochemical proxies indicate vertical variations of productivity (EX-SiO2 and Baauth), terrestrial sediment input (Al2O3, Zr, Hf, and Nb) and oxygen content in bottom water during deposition (Moauth, Uauth and Th/U), which represent the temporal changes in the mixing ratio between Type II and III kerogens. The Horn River Formation has different HIo values calculated from EX-SiO2 (biogenic origin) and it is ranked by HIo value in descending order: Evie and Muskwa members (500-700 mgHC/gTOC) > middle Otterpark Member (400-500 mgHC/gTOC) > upper Otterpark Member (300-400 mgHC/gTOC) > lower Otterpark Member (200 mgHC/gTOC). Based on the original kerogen type and TOCo, the gas generation and storage potentials of the Evie, middle Otterpark and Muskwa members are higher than those of other members. The source rock potential is excellent for the Evie Member with a remarkable difference between TOCo and measured TOC.

MODIS EVI-based net primary production in the Sahel 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardö, Jonas; Tagesson, Torbern; Jamali, Sadegh; Khatir, Abdelrahman

2018-03-01

Africa is facing resource problems due to increasing demand combined with potential climate-induced changes in supply. Here we aim to quantify resources in terms of net primary production (NPP [g C m-2 yr-1]) of vegetation in the Sahel region for 2000-2014. Using time series of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from MODIS, NPP was estimated for the Sahel region with a 500 × 500 m spatial resolution and 8-day temporal resolution. The estimates were based on local eddy covariance flux measurements from six sites in the Sahel region and the carbon use efficiency originating from a dynamic vegetation model. No significant NPP change was found for the Sahel as a region but, for sub-regions, significant changes, both increasing and decreasing, were observed. Substantial uncertainties related to NPP estimates and the small availability of evaluation data makes verification difficult. The simplicity of the methodology used, dependent on earth observation only, is considered an advantage.

Geographic information system (GIS) simulation of emergency power production from disaster debris in a combined heat and power (CHP) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryals, Christopher Shannon

The objective of this study is to determine a predicted energy capacity of disaster debris for the production of emergency power using a combined heat and power (CHP) unit. A prediction simulation using geographic information systems (GIS) will use data from past storms to calculate an estimated amount of debris along with an estimated energy potential of said debris. Rather than the expense and burden of transporting woody debris such as downed trees and wood framing materials offsite, they can be processed (sorting and chipping) to provide an onsite energy source to provide power to emergency management facilities such as shelters in schools and hospitals. A CHP unit can simultaneously produce heat, cooling effects and electrical power using various biomass sources. This study surveys the quantity and composition of debris produced for a given classification of disaster and location. A comparison of power efficiency estimates for various disasters is conducted.

High-Resolution Forest Carbon Monitoring and Modeling: Continued Prototype Development and Deployment Across The Tri-state Area (MD, PA, DE), USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Birdsey, R.; Campbell, E.; Dolan, K. A.; Dubayah, R.; Escobar, V. M.; Finley, A. O.; Flanagan, S.; Huang, W.; Johnson, K.; Lister, A.; ONeil-Dunne, J.; Sepulveda Carlo, E.; Zhao, M.

2017-12-01

Local, national and international programs have increasing need for precise and accurate estimates of forest carbon and structure to support greenhouse gas reduction plans, climate initiatives, and other international climate treaty frameworks. In 2010 Congress directed NASA to initiate research towards the development of Carbon Monitoring Systems (CMS). In response, our team has worked to develop a robust, replicable framework to produce maps of high-resolution carbon stocks and future carbon sequestration potential. High-resolution (30m) maps of carbon stocks and uncertainty were produced by linking national 1m-resolution imagery and existing wall-to-wall airborne lidar to spatially explicit in-situ field observations such as the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) network. These same data, characterizing forest extent and vertical structure, were used to drive a prognostic ecosystem model to predict carbon fluxes and carbon sequestration potential at unprecedented spatial resolution and scale (90m), more than 100,000 times the spatial resolution of standard global models. Through project development, the domain of this research has expanded from two counties in MD (2,181 km2), to the entire state (32,133 km2), to the tri-state region of MD, PA, and DE (157,868 km2), covering forests in four major USDA ecological providences (Eastern Broadleaf, Northeastern Mixed, Outer Coastal Plain, and Central Appalachian). Across the region, we estimate 694 Tg C (14 DE, 113 MD, 567 PA) in above ground biomass, and estimate a carbon sequestration potential more than twice that amount. Empirical biomass products enhance existing approaches though high resolution accounting for trees outside traditional forest maps. Modeling products move beyond traditional MRV, and map future afforestation and reforestation potential for carbon at local actionable spatial scales. These products are relevant to multiple stakeholder needs in the region as discussed through the Tri-sate Working Group, and are actively being used to inform the state of MD's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act. The approach is scalable, and provides a protoype framework for application in other domains and for future spaceborne lidar missions.

Effects of life-history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile.

PubMed

Thompson, Denise M; Ligon, Day B; Patton, Jason C; Papeş, Monica

2017-04-01

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life-history traits essential for species' persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species' potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species' survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species' predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg-incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species' range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species' ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species' distributions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Estimation and Inclusion of Presenteeism Costs in Applied Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

2017-03-01

Given the significant costs of reduced productivity (presenteeism) in comparison to absenteeism, and overall societal costs, presenteeism has a potentially important role to play in economic evaluations. However, these costs are often excluded. The objective of this study is to review applied cost of illness studies and economic evaluations to identify valuation methods used for, and impact of including presenteeism costs in practice. A structured systematic review was carried out to explore (i) the extent to which presenteeism has been applied in cost of illness studies and economic evaluations and (ii) the overall impact of including presenteeism on overall costs and outcomes. Potential articles were identified by searching Medline, PsycINFO and NHS EED databases. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from economic evaluations and cost of illness studies incorporating presenteeism costs. A total of 28 studies were included in the systematic review which also demonstrated that presenteeism costs are rarely included in full economic evaluations. Estimation and monetisation methods differed between the instruments. The impact of disease on presenteeism whilst in paid work is high. The potential impact of presenteeism costs needs to be highlighted and greater consideration should be given to including these in economic evaluations and cost of illness studies. The importance of including presenteeism costs when conducting economic evaluation from a societal perspective should be emphasised in national economic guidelines and more methodological work is required to improve the practical application of presenteeism instruments to generate productivity cost estimates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Frequency and longitudinal trends of household care product use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Rebecca E.; Bennett, Deborah H.; Tancredi, Daniel J.; Wu, Xiangmei (May); Ritz, Beate; Hertz-Picciotto, Irva

2012-08-01

The use of household cleaning products and air fresheners exposes people to a variety of chemicals, including some that have been shown to be irritants, potential carcinogens and endocrine disrupting compounds. In addition, some react with ambient ozone infiltrating to the indoor environment to form potentially toxic secondary pollutants. Although realistic estimates of usage patterns are necessary for modeling potential exposures in risk assessments, few studies have documented cleaning habits and product usage to characterize how they vary between households and over time. In addition, understanding within-household temporal variability of use is important to assess the reliability of exposure questionnaires used in epidemiological surveys and improve the cost-efficiency of data collection. In the SUPERB (Study of Use of Products and Exposure-Related Behavior) study, frequencies of use of eight types of household cleaning products and air fresheners and the performance of different types of cleaning tasks are collected in three annual telephone and six quarterly web-based surveys. All-purpose and glass cleaners were the products most frequently used among all products surveyed. Use frequencies differed by demographic and other household characteristics for some products. Product usage was internally consistent, with over 75% of pairwise cross-sectional correlations between product types statistically significantly different from zero. In addition, each product type was correlated with at least one cleaning habit. Frequency of cleaning product use and performing cleaning tasks did not vary by season. An examination of intra-household variability showed moderately to highly consistent usage patterns over time, with lower temporal consistency observed among products used more frequently, such as all-purpose cleaners. Frequency of household care product usage was consistent enough that in epidemiologic studies, participants can be classified, for example, into three categories on the basis of a single assessment, with only minimal misclassification.

Predicting emissions from oil and gas operations in the Uinta Basin, Utah.

PubMed

Wilkey, Jonathan; Kelly, Kerry; Jaramillo, Isabel Cristina; Spinti, Jennifer; Ring, Terry; Hogue, Michael; Pasqualini, Donatella

2016-05-01

In this study, emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah's Uinta Basin are predicted (with uncertainty estimates) from 2015-2019 using a Monte-Carlo model of (a) drilling and production activity, and (b) emission factors. Cross-validation tests against actual drilling and production data from 2010-2014 show that the model can accurately predict both types of activities, returning median results that are within 5% of actual values for drilling, 0.1% for oil production, and 4% for gas production. A variety of one-time (drilling) and ongoing (oil and gas production) emission factors for greenhouse gases, methane, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are applied to the predicted oil and gas operations. Based on the range of emission factor values reported in the literature, emissions from well completions are the most significant source of emissions, followed by gas transmission and production. We estimate that the annual average VOC emissions rate for the oil and gas industry over the 2010-2015 time period was 44.2E+06 (mean) ± 12.8E+06 (standard deviation) kg VOCs per year (with all applicable emissions reductions). On the same basis, over the 2015-2019 period annual average VOC emissions from oil and gas operations are expected to drop 45% to 24.2E+06 ± 3.43E+06 kg VOCs per year, due to decreases in drilling activity and tighter emission standards. This study improves upon previous methods for estimating emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah's Uinta Basin by tracking one-time and ongoing emission events on a well-by-well basis. The proposed method has proven highly accurate at predicting drilling and production activity and includes uncertainty estimates to describe the range of potential emissions inventory outcomes. If similar input data are available in other oil and gas producing regions, then the method developed here could be applied to those regions as well.

Preliminary estimates of the quantities of rare-earth elements contained in selected products and in imports of semimanufactured products to the United States, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bleiwas, Donald I.; Gambogi, Joseph

2013-01-01

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are contained in a wide range of products of economic and strategic importance to the Nation. The REEs may or may not represent a significant component of that product by mass, value, or volume; however, in many cases, the embedded REEs are critical for the device’s function. Domestic sources of primary supply and the manufacturing facilities to produce products are inadequate to meet U.S. requirements; therefore, a significant percentage of the supply of REEs and the products that contain them are imported to the United States. In 2011, mines in China produced roughly 97 percent of the world’s supply of REEs, and the country’s production of these elements will likely dominate global supply until at least 2020. Preliminary estimates of the types and amount of rare-earth elements, reported as oxides, in semimanufactured form and the amounts used for electric vehicle batteries, catalytic converters, computers, and other applications were developed to provide a perspective on the Nation’s use of these elements. The amount of rare-earth metals recovered from recycling, remanufacturing, and reuse is negligible when the tonnage of products that contain REEs deposited in landfills and retained in storage is considered. Under favorable market conditions, the recovery of REEs from obsolete products could potentially displace a portion of the supply from primary sources.

Polyhydroxybutyrate synthesis on biodiesel wastewater using mixed microbial consortia.

PubMed

Dobroth, Zachary T; Hu, Shengjun; Coats, Erik R; McDonald, Armando G

2011-02-01

Crude glycerol (CG), a by-product of biodiesel production, is an organic carbon-rich substrate with potential as feedstock for polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production. PHA is a biodegradable thermoplastic synthesized by microorganisms as an intracellular granule. In this study we investigated PHA production on CG using mixed microbial consortia (MMC) and determined that the enriched MMC produced exclusively polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) utilizing the methanol fraction. PHB synthesis appeared to be stimulated by a macronutrient deficiency. Intracellular concentrations remained relatively constant over an operational cycle, with microbial growth occurring concurrent with polymer synthesis. PHB average molecular weights ranged from 200-380 kDa, while thermal properties compared well with commercial PHB. The resulting PHB material properties and characteristics would be suitable for many commercial uses. Considering full-scale process application, it was estimated that a 38 million L (10 million gallon) per year biodiesel operation could potentially produce up to 19 metric ton (20.9t on) of PHB per year. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lexical stress encoding in single word production estimated by event-related brain potentials.

PubMed

Schiller, Niels O

2006-09-27

An event-related brain potentials (ERPs) experiment was carried out to investigate the time course of lexical stress encoding in language production. Native speakers of Dutch viewed a series of pictures corresponding to bisyllabic names which were either stressed on the first or on the second syllable and made go/no-go decisions on the lexical stress location of those picture names. Behavioral results replicated a pattern that was observed earlier, i.e. faster button-press latencies to initial as compared to final stress targets. The electrophysiological results indicated that participants could make a lexical stress decision significantly earlier when picture names had initial than when they had final stress. Moreover, the present data suggest the time course of lexical stress encoding during single word form formation in language production. When word length is corrected for, the temporal interval for lexical stress encoding specified by the current ERP results falls into the time window previously identified for phonological encoding in language production.

Flux of aquatic insect productivity to land: comparison of lentic and lotic ecosystems.

PubMed

Gratton, Claudio; Vander Zanden, M Jake

2009-10-01

Recently, food web studies have started exploring how resources from one habitat or ecosystem influence trophic interactions in a recipient ecosystem. Benthic production in lakes and streams can be exported to terrestrial habitats via emerging aquatic insects and can therefore link aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we develop a general conceptual model that highlights zoobenthic production, insect emergence, and ecosystem geometry (driven principally by area-to-edge ratio) as important factors modulating the flux of aquatic production across the ecosystem boundary. Emerging insect flux, defined as total insect production emerging per meter of shoreline (g C x m(-1) x yr(-1)) is then distributed inland using decay functions and is used to estimate insect deposition rate to terrestrial habitats (g C x m(-2) x yr(-1)). Using empirical data from the literature, we simulate insect fluxes across the water-land ecosystem boundary to estimate the distribution of fluxes and insect deposition inland for lakes and streams. In general, zoobenthos in streams are more productive than in lakes (6.67 vs. 1.46 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1)) but have lower insect emergence to aquatic production ratios (0.19 vs. 0.30). However, as stream width is on average smaller than lake radius, this results in flux (F) estimates 2 1/2 times greater for lakes than for streams. Ultimately, insect deposition onto land (within 100 m of shore) adjacent to average-sized lakes (10-ha lakes, 0.021 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1)) is greater than for average-sized streams (4 m width, 0.002 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1)) used in our comparisons. For the average lake (both in size and productivity), insect deposition rate approaches estimates of terrestrial secondary production in low-productivity ecosystems (e.g., deserts and tundra, approximately 0.07 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1)). However, larger lakes (1300 ha) and streams (16 m) can have average insect deposition rates (approximately 0.01-2.4 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1)) comparable to estimates of secondary production of more productive ecosystems such as grasslands. Because of the potentially large inputs of emerging aquatic insects into terrestrial habitats, ecosystem processes and terrestrial consumers can be influenced by insect inputs. The relative contribution of lakes and streams to this flux will vary among landscapes depending on the number and size of these ecosystems types on the landscape.

'This year I will not put her to work': the production/reproduction nexus in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Storeng, Katerini Tagmatarchi; Akoum, Mélanie Stephanie; Murray, Susan F

2013-04-01

Global advocacy campaigns increasingly highlight the negative impact of reproductive morbidity on economic productivity and development in order to justify donor investment in maternal health. Anthropological approaches nuance such narrow economic estimations of reproductive health. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork from Burkina Faso in West Africa, this paper analyses the dynamic, and sometimes contradictory, relationship between women's work and reproductive health in impoverished communities. Specifically, it examines the consequences of life-threatening 'near-miss' obstetric complications for women's work across domestic, agricultural and economic spheres over a four-year period. Such events provide a window onto the diverse ways in which production and reproduction are intimately linked within women's everyday lives. Reproduction and production entail sources of potential empowerment and enhancement, as well as potential threats, to health and well-being. In the aftermath of 'near-miss' events, the realms of reproduction and production sometimes jeopardise each other and at other times reinforce each other, while strength in one domain can compensate for weakness in the other. Women's experiences thus reveal how 'production' and 'reproduction' are mutually constituted, challenging the purely instrumental accounts of pregnancy-related 'productivity loss' that dominate current global health discourse.

Three Essays in the Public Economics of Offshore Hydrocarbon Investment and Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Owen P.

Offshore sources, in both shallow and deep waters, are increasingly important contributors to global oil and natural gas production. As both resource owner and taxing authority, national governments play an important role in the production of these offshore hydrocarbons. How the policy choices of these governments affect firm behavior, however, is not necessarily well understood. This dissertation contributes to our knowledge of how public policy influences offshore hydrocarbon investment and production. In the first essay, I estimate the investment responses of hydrocarbon producers to the suspension of the royalty, a type of production tax levied on production from federal lands. I find that the potential for a royalty payments waiver: (1) increases the probability that an individual tract is acquired by an average of 193% (a mean increase of 5.6 percentage points); (2) decreases the probability that a lease is ever drilled during its observed lease term by an average of 14.5% (a mean decrease of 1.3 percentage points); and (3) increases the expected number of explored leases by 150%. The introduction of DWRRA also increases the average winning bid per lease by 60%. These estimates quantify the magnitudes of the discouraging effects of production taxation on oil and natural gas investment. In the second essay, I quantify the implied value of information spillovers in oil and natural gas exploration using an event study design. I find that 25 trading days after a discovery, firms that own leases adjacent to the discovery lease (but not the discovery lease, itself) realize an average abnormal return translating to 315 million in market capitalization. This effect is quantitatively large compared to costs for drilling an exploratory well. In the final essay, I measure how oil price affects water injection, a method for prolonging the productive lifetime of oil fields. I find that a 1 rise in price increases the water injected into the well's reservoir by approximately 650 to 950 barrels, equalling 7.5 to 9.5% of the mean monthly injection volume (depending on the sample chosen). Equating the estimated price effect with a potential tax effect, this finding has implications for how the government levies a royalty on mature oil fields for which operators invest in pressure maintenance.

Renewable Hydrogen Potential from Biogas in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saur, G.; Milbrandt, A.

This analysis updates and expands upon previous biogas studies to include total potential and net availability of methane in raw biogas with respect to competing demands and includes a resource assessment of four sources of biogas: (1) wastewater treatment plants, including domestic and a new assessment of industrial sources; (2) landfills; (3) animal manure; and (4) a new assessment of industrial, institutional, and commercial sources. The results of the biogas resource assessment are used to estimate the potential production of renewable hydrogen from biogas as well as the fuel cell electric vehicles that the produced hydrogen might support.

Municipal wastewater sludge as a sustainable bioresource in the United States.

PubMed

Seiple, Timothy E; Coleman, André M; Skaggs, Richard L

2017-07-15

Within the United States and Puerto Rico, publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) process 130.5 Gl/d (34.5 Bgal/d) of wastewater, producing sludge as a waste product. Emerging technologies offer novel waste-to-energy pathways through whole sludge conversion into biofuels. Assessing the feasibility, scalability and tradeoffs of various energy conversion pathways is difficult in the absence of highly spatially resolved estimates of sludge production. In this study, average wastewater solids concentrations and removal rates, and site specific daily average influent flow are used to estimate site specific annual sludge production on a dry weight basis for >15,000 POTWs. Current beneficial uses, regional production hotspots and feedstock aggregation potential are also assessed. Analyses indicate 1) POTWs capture 12.56 Tg/y (13.84 MT/y) of dry solids; 2) 50% are not beneficially utilized, and 3) POTWs can support seven regions that aggregate >910 Mg/d (1000 T/d) of sludge within a travel distance of 100 km. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Emissions of CH4 from natural gas production in the United States using aircraft-based observations (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, C.; Ryerson, T. B.; Karion, A.; Peischl, J.; Petron, G.; Schnell, R. C.; Tsai, T.; Crosson, E.; Rella, C.; Trainer, M.; Frost, G. J.; Hardesty, R. M.; Montzka, S. A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Tans, P. P.

2013-12-01

New extraction technologies are making natural gas from shale and tight sand gas reservoirs in the United States (US) more accessible. As a result, the US has become the largest producer of natural gas in the world. This growth in natural gas production may result in increased leakage of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, offsetting the climate benefits of natural gas relative to other fossil fuels. Methane emissions from natural gas production are not well quantified because of the large variety of potential sources, the variability in production and operating practices, the uneven distribution of emitters, and a lack of verification of emission inventories with direct atmospheric measurements. Researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) have used simple mass balance approaches to estimate emissions of CH4 from several natural gas and oil plays across the US. We will summarize the results of the available aircraft and ground-based atmospheric emissions estimates to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of these emissions in the US.

Emissions of CH4 from natural gas production in the United States using aircraft-based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Petron, Gabrielle; Ryerson, Thomas; Peischl, Jeff; Trainer, Michael; Rella, Chris; Hardesty, Michael; Crosson, Eric; Montzka, Stephen; Tans, Pieter; Shepson, Paul; Kort, Eric

2014-05-01

New extraction technologies are making natural gas from shale and tight sand gas reservoirs in the United States (US) more accessible. As a result, the US has become the largest producer of natural gas in the world. This growth in natural gas production may result in increased leakage of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, offsetting the climate benefits of natural gas relative to other fossil fuels. Methane emissions from natural gas production are not well quantified because of the large variety of potential sources, the variability in production and operating practices, the uneven distribution of emitters, and a lack of verification of emission inventories with direct atmospheric measurements. Researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) have used simple mass balance approaches in combination with isotopes and light alkanes to estimate emissions of CH4 from several natural gas and oil plays across the US. We will summarize the results of the available aircraft and ground-based atmospheric emissions estimates to better understand the spatial and temporal distribution of these emissions in the US.

Surface Nitrification: A Major Uncertainty in Marine N2O Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zamora, Lauren M.; Oschlies, Andreas

2014-01-01

The ocean is responsible for up to a third of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, but uncertainties in emission rates of this potent greenhouse gas are high (approaching 100%). Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to assess six major uncertainties in estimates of N2O production, thereby providing guidance in how future studies may most effectively reduce uncertainties in current and future marine N2O emissions. Potential surface N2O production from nitrification causes the largest uncertainty in N2O emissions (estimated up to approximately 1.6 Tg N/yr (sup -1) or 48% of modeled values), followed by the unknown oxygen concentration at which N2O production switches to N2O consumption (0.8 Tg N/yr (sup -1)or 24% of modeled values). Other uncertainties are minor, cumulatively changing regional emissions by less than 15%. If production of N2O by surface nitrification could be ruled out in future studies, uncertainties in marine N2O emissions would be halved.