Sensitivity and specificity of auditory steady‐state response testing

PubMed Central

Rabelo, Camila Maia; Schochat, Eliane

2011-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The ASSR test is an electrophysiological test that evaluates, among other aspects, neural synchrony, based on the frequency or amplitude modulation of tones. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of auditory steady‐state response testing in detecting lesions and dysfunctions of the central auditory nervous system. METHODS: Seventy volunteers were divided into three groups: those with normal hearing; those with mesial temporal sclerosis; and those with central auditory processing disorder. All subjects underwent auditory steady‐state response testing of both ears at 500 Hz and 2000 Hz (frequency modulation, 46 Hz). The difference between auditory steady‐state response‐estimated thresholds and behavioral thresholds (audiometric evaluation) was calculated. RESULTS: Estimated thresholds were significantly higher in the mesial temporal sclerosis group than in the normal and central auditory processing disorder groups. In addition, the difference between auditory steady‐state response‐estimated and behavioral thresholds was greatest in the mesial temporal sclerosis group when compared to the normal group than in the central auditory processing disorder group compared to the normal group. DISCUSSION: Research focusing on central auditory nervous system (CANS) lesions has shown that individuals with CANS lesions present a greater difference between ASSR‐estimated thresholds and actual behavioral thresholds; ASSR‐estimated thresholds being significantly worse than behavioral thresholds in subjects with CANS insults. This is most likely because the disorder prevents the transmission of the sound stimulus from being in phase with the received stimulus, resulting in asynchronous transmitter release. Another possible cause of the greater difference between the ASSR‐estimated thresholds and the behavioral thresholds is impaired temporal resolution. CONCLUSIONS: The overall sensitivity of auditory steady‐state response testing was lower than its overall specificity. Although the overall specificity was high, it was lower in the central auditory processing disorder group than in the mesial temporal sclerosis group. Overall sensitivity was also lower in the central auditory processing disorder group than in the mesial temporal sclerosis group. PMID:21437442

Nonlinear finite element model updating for damage identification of civil structures using batch Bayesian estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.; de Callafon, Raymond A.

2017-02-01

This paper presents a framework for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage identification of civil structures. This framework integrates advanced mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) modeling and analysis techniques with a batch Bayesian estimation approach to estimate time-invariant model parameters used in the FE model of the structure of interest. The framework uses input excitation and dynamic response of the structure and updates a nonlinear FE model of the structure to minimize the discrepancies between predicted and measured response time histories. The updated FE model can then be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and quantify the state of damage and predict the remaining useful life of the structure. As opposed to recursive estimation methods, in the batch Bayesian estimation approach, the entire time history of the input excitation and output response of the structure are used as a batch of data to estimate the FE model parameters through a number of iterations. In the case of non-informative prior, the batch Bayesian method leads to an extended maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method to estimate jointly time-invariant model parameters and the measurement noise amplitude. The extended ML estimation problem is solved efficiently using a gradient-based interior-point optimization algorithm. Gradient-based optimization algorithms require the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters to be identified. The FE response sensitivities are computed accurately and efficiently using the direct differentiation method (DDM). The estimation uncertainties are evaluated based on the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) theorem by computing the exact Fisher Information matrix using the FE response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters. The accuracy of the proposed uncertainty quantification approach is verified using a sampling approach based on the unscented transformation. Two validation studies, based on realistic structural FE models of a bridge pier and a moment resisting steel frame, are performed to validate the performance and accuracy of the presented nonlinear FE model updating approach and demonstrate its application to SHM. These validation studies show the excellent performance of the proposed framework for SHM and damage identification even in the presence of high measurement noise and/or way-out initial estimates of the model parameters. Furthermore, the detrimental effects of the input measurement noise on the performance of the proposed framework are illustrated and quantified through one of the validation studies.

Real versus Artificial Variation in the Thermal Sensitivity of Biological Traits.

PubMed

Pawar, Samraat; Dell, Anthony I; Savage, Van M; Knies, Jennifer L

2016-02-01

Whether the thermal sensitivity of an organism's traits follows the simple Boltzmann-Arrhenius model remains a contentious issue that centers around consideration of its operational temperature range and whether the sensitivity corresponds to one or a few underlying rate-limiting enzymes. Resolving this issue is crucial, because mechanistic models for temperature dependence of traits are required to predict the biological effects of climate change. Here, by combining theory with data on 1,085 thermal responses from a wide range of traits and organisms, we show that substantial variation in thermal sensitivity (activation energy) estimates can arise simply because of variation in the range of measured temperatures. Furthermore, when thermal responses deviate systematically from the Boltzmann-Arrhenius model, variation in measured temperature ranges across studies can bias estimated activation energy distributions toward higher mean, median, variance, and skewness. Remarkably, this bias alone can yield activation energies that encompass the range expected from biochemical reactions (from ~0.2 to 1.2 eV), making it difficult to establish whether a single activation energy appropriately captures thermal sensitivity. We provide guidelines and a simple equation for partially correcting for such artifacts. Our results have important implications for understanding the mechanistic basis of thermal responses of biological traits and for accurately modeling effects of variation in thermal sensitivity on responses of individuals, populations, and ecological communities to changing climatic temperatures.

A Mixture Rasch Model with a Covariate: A Simulation Study via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dai, Yunyun

2013-01-01

Mixtures of item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed as a technique to explore response patterns in test data related to cognitive strategies, instructional sensitivity, and differential item functioning (DIF). Estimation proves challenging due to difficulties in identification and questions of effect size needed to recover underlying…

On the asymptotic standard error of a class of robust estimators of ability in dichotomous item response models.

PubMed

Magis, David

2014-11-01

In item response theory, the classical estimators of ability are highly sensitive to response disturbances and can return strongly biased estimates of the true underlying ability level. Robust methods were introduced to lessen the impact of such aberrant responses on the estimation process. The computation of asymptotic (i.e., large-sample) standard errors (ASE) for these robust estimators, however, has not yet been fully considered. This paper focuses on a broad class of robust ability estimators, defined by an appropriate selection of the weight function and the residual measure, for which the ASE is derived from the theory of estimating equations. The maximum likelihood (ML) and the robust estimators, together with their estimated ASEs, are then compared in a simulation study by generating random guessing disturbances. It is concluded that both the estimators and their ASE perform similarly in the absence of random guessing, while the robust estimator and its estimated ASE are less biased and outperform their ML counterparts in the presence of random guessing with large impact on the item response process. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Comparing light sensitivity, linearity and step response of electronic cameras for ophthalmology.

PubMed

Kopp, O; Markert, S; Tornow, R P

2002-01-01

To develop and test a procedure to measure and compare light sensitivity, linearity and step response of electronic cameras. The pixel value (PV) of digitized images as a function of light intensity (I) was measured. The sensitivity was calculated from the slope of the P(I) function, the linearity was estimated from the correlation coefficient of this function. To measure the step response, a short sequence of images was acquired. During acquisition, a light source was switched on and off using a fast shutter. The resulting PV was calculated for each video field of the sequence. A CCD camera optimized for the near-infrared (IR) spectrum showed the highest sensitivity for both, visible and IR light. There are little differences in linearity. The step response depends on the procedure of integration and read out.

Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada.

PubMed

Gruber, Jonathan; Sen, Anindya; Stabile, Mark

2003-09-01

A central parameter for evaluating tax policies is the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes. But in many countries this parameter is difficult to estimate reliably due to widespread smuggling, which significantly biases estimates using legal sales data. An excellent example is Canada, where widespread smuggling in the early 1990s, in response to large tax increases, biases upwards the response of legal cigarette sales to price. We surmount this problem through two approaches: excluding the provinces and years where smuggling was greatest; and using household level expenditure data on smoking. These two approaches yield a tightly estimated elasticity in the range of -0.45 to -0.47. We also show that the sensitivity of smoking to price is much larger among lower income Canadians. In the context of recent behavioral models of smoking, whereby higher taxes reduce unwanted smoking among price sensitive populations, this finding suggests that cigarette taxes may not be as regressive as previously suggested. Finally, we show that price increases on cigarettes do not increase, and may actually decrease, consumption of alcohol; as a result, smuggling of cigarettes may have raised consumption of alcohol as well.

Discrete analysis of spatial-sensitivity models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nielsen, Kenneth R. K.; Wandell, Brian A.

1988-01-01

Procedures for reducing the computational burden of current models of spatial vision are described, the simplifications being consistent with the prediction of the complete model. A method for using pattern-sensitivity measurements to estimate the initial linear transformation is also proposed which is based on the assumption that detection performance is monotonic with the vector length of the sensor responses. It is shown how contrast-threshold data can be used to estimate the linear transformation needed to characterize threshold performance.

Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunt, D.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Schmidt, G.A.; Salzmann, U.; Valdes, P.J.; Dowsett, H.J.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Unsaturated fatty acids show clear elicitation responses in a modified local lymph node assay with an elicitation phase, and test positive in the direct peptide reactivity assay.

PubMed

Yamashita, Kunihiko; Shinoda, Shinsuke; Hagiwara, Saori; Miyazaki, Hiroshi; Itagaki, Hiroshi

2015-12-01

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Test Guidelines (TG) adopted the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and guinea pig maximization test (GPMT) as stand-alone skin sensitization test methods. However, unsaturated carbon-carbon double-bond and/or lipid acids afforded false-positive results more frequently in the LLNA compared to those in the GPMT and/or in human subjects. In the current study, oleic, linoleic, linolenic, undecylenic, fumaric, maleic, and succinic acid and squalene were tested in a modified LLNA with an elicitation phase (LLNA:DAE), and in a direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA) to evaluate their skin-sensitizing potential. Oleic, linoleic, linolenic, undecylenic and maleic acid were positive in the LLNA:DAE, of which three, linoleic, linolenic, and maleic acid were positive in the DPRA. Furthermore, the results of the cross-sensitizing tests using four LLNA:DAE-positive chemicals were negative, indicating a chemical-specific elicitation response. In a previous report, the estimated concentration needed to produce a stimulation index of 3 (EC3) of linolenic acid, squalene, and maleic acid in the LLNA was < 10%. Therefore, these chemicals were classified as moderate skin sensitizers in the LLNA. However, the skin-sensitizing potential of all LLNA:DAE-positive chemicals was estimated as weak. These results suggested that oleic, linoleic, linolenic, undecylenic, and maleic acid had skin-sensitizing potential, and that the LLNA overestimated the skin-sensitizing potential compared to that estimated by the LLNA:DAE.

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models.

PubMed

Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Fikse, W Freddy; Veerkamp, Roel F; Strandberg, Erling

2013-07-04

Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike's information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike's information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike's information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.

New non-randomised model to assess the prevalence of discriminating behaviour: a pilot study on mephedrone

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background An advantage of randomised response and non-randomised models investigating sensitive issues arises from the characteristic that individual answers about discriminating behaviour cannot be linked to the individuals. This study proposed a new fuzzy response model coined 'Single Sample Count' (SSC) to estimate prevalence of discriminating or embarrassing behaviour in epidemiologic studies. Methods The SSC was tested and compared to the established Forced Response (FR) model estimating Mephedrone use. Estimations from both SSC and FR were then corroborated with qualitative hair screening data. Volunteers (n = 318, mean age = 22.69 ± 5.87, 59.1% male) in a rural area in north Wales and a metropolitan area in England completed a questionnaire containing the SSC and FR in alternating order, and four questions canvassing opinions and beliefs regarding Mephedrone. Hair samples were screened for Mephedrone using a qualitative Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry method. Results The SSC algorithm improves upon the existing item count techniques by utilizing known population distributions and embeds the sensitive question among four unrelated innocuous questions with binomial distribution. Respondents are only asked to indicate how many without revealing which ones are true. The two probability models yielded similar estimates with the FR being between 2.6% - 15.0%; whereas the new SSC ranged between 0% - 10%. The six positive hair samples indicated that the prevalence rate in the sample was at least 4%. The close proximity of these estimates provides evidence to support the validity of the new SSC model. Using simulations, the recommended sample sizes as the function of the statistical power and expected prevalence rate were calculated. Conclusion The main advantages of the SSC over other indirect methods are: simple administration, completion and calculation, maximum use of the data and good face validity for all respondents. Owing to the key feature that respondents are not required to answer the sensitive question directly, coupled with the absence of forced response or obvious self-protective response strategy, the SSC has the potential to cut across self-protective barriers more effectively than other estimation models. This elegantly simple, quick and effective method can be successfully employed in public health research investigating compromising behaviours. PMID:21812979

Behavioral Risk Profile of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Beijing, China: Results from a Cross-sectional Survey with Randomized Response Techniques.

PubMed

Geng, Guo-Zhu; Gao, Ge; Ruan, Yu-Hua; Yu, Ming-Run; Zhou, Yun-Hua

2016-03-05

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is spreading rapidly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Anonymous questionnaires or direct interviews have been frequently used to study their behavior. The aim of the study was to describe the behavioral risk profile of the MSM in Beijing using the randomized response techniques (RRTs). A cross-sectional survey of sexual behavior among a sample of MSM was conducted in two HIV counseling and testing clinics in Beijing. The survey was carried out with an anonymous questionnaire containing sensitive questions on sexual behavior. To obtain the honest responses to the sensitive questions, three distinctive RRTs were used in the questionnaire: (1) Additive randomized response model for quantitative questions, (2) randomized response model for multiple choice questions, and (3) Simmons randomized response model for binomial questions. Formulae for the point estimate, variance, and confidence interval (CI) were provided for each specific model. Using RRTs in a sample of 659 participants, the mean age at first homosexual encounter was estimated to be 21.7 years (95% CI: 21.2-22.2), and each had sex with about three (2.9, 95% CI: 2.4-3.4) male partners on average in the past month. The estimated rate for consistent condom use was 56.4% (95% CI: 50.1-62.8%). In addition, condom was estimated to be used among 80.0% (95% CI: 74.1-85.9%) of the population during last anal sex with a male partner. Our study employed RRTs in a survey containing questions on sexual behavior among MSM, and the results showed that RRT might be a useful tool to obtain truthful feedback on sensitive information such as sexual behavior from the respondents, especially in traditional Chinese cultural settings.

Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabell, Randolph; Schiller, Noah; Allen, Albert; Moeller, Mark

2009-01-01

High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

The Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to the Latent Ability Distribution. Research Report. ETS RR-11-40

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Xueli; Jia, Yue

2011-01-01

Estimation of item response model parameters and ability distribution parameters has been, and will remain, an important topic in the educational testing field. Much research has been dedicated to addressing this task. Some studies have focused on item parameter estimation when the latent ability was assumed to follow a normal distribution,…

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations.

PubMed

Carey, Vincent J; Wang, You-Gan

2011-11-20

We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multiple sensitive estimation and optimal sample size allocation in the item sum technique.

PubMed

Perri, Pier Francesco; Rueda García, María Del Mar; Cobo Rodríguez, Beatriz

2018-01-01

For surveys of sensitive issues in life sciences, statistical procedures can be used to reduce nonresponse and social desirability response bias. Both of these phenomena provoke nonsampling errors that are difficult to deal with and can seriously flaw the validity of the analyses. The item sum technique (IST) is a very recent indirect questioning method derived from the item count technique that seeks to procure more reliable responses on quantitative items than direct questioning while preserving respondents' anonymity. This article addresses two important questions concerning the IST: (i) its implementation when two or more sensitive variables are investigated and efficient estimates of their unknown population means are required; (ii) the determination of the optimal sample size to achieve minimum variance estimates. These aspects are of great relevance for survey practitioners engaged in sensitive research and, to the best of our knowledge, were not studied so far. In this article, theoretical results for multiple estimation and optimal allocation are obtained under a generic sampling design and then particularized to simple random sampling and stratified sampling designs. Theoretical considerations are integrated with a number of simulation studies based on data from two real surveys and conducted to ascertain the efficiency gain derived from optimal allocation in different situations. One of the surveys concerns cannabis consumption among university students. Our findings highlight some methodological advances that can be obtained in life sciences IST surveys when optimal allocation is achieved. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Inaccurate Estimation of Disparities Due to Mischievous Responders: Several Suggestions to Assess Conclusions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson-Cimpian, Joseph P.

2014-01-01

This article introduces novel sensitivity-analysis procedures for investigating and reducing the bias that mischievous responders (i.e., youths who provide extreme, and potentially untruthful, responses to multiple questions) often introduce in adolescent disparity estimates based on data from self-administered questionnaires (SAQs). Mischievous…

Estimating multivariate response surface model with data outliers, case study in enhancing surface layer properties of an aircraft aluminium alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widodo, Edy; Kariyam

2017-03-01

To determine the input variable settings that create the optimal compromise in response variable used Response Surface Methodology (RSM). There are three primary steps in the RSM problem, namely data collection, modelling, and optimization. In this study focused on the establishment of response surface models, using the assumption that the data produced is correct. Usually the response surface model parameters are estimated by OLS. However, this method is highly sensitive to outliers. Outliers can generate substantial residual and often affect the estimator models. Estimator models produced can be biased and could lead to errors in the determination of the optimal point of fact, that the main purpose of RSM is not reached. Meanwhile, in real life, the collected data often contain some response variable and a set of independent variables. Treat each response separately and apply a single response procedures can result in the wrong interpretation. So we need a development model for the multi-response case. Therefore, it takes a multivariate model of the response surface that is resistant to outliers. As an alternative, in this study discussed on M-estimation as a parameter estimator in multivariate response surface models containing outliers. As an illustration presented a case study on the experimental results to the enhancement of the surface layer of aluminium alloy air by shot peening.

Lethal and behavioral impacts of diesel and fuel oil on the Antarctic amphipod Paramoera walkeri.

PubMed

Brown, Kathryn E; King, Catherine K; Harrison, Peter L

2017-09-01

Toxicity testing with Antarctic species is required for risk assessment of fuel spills in Antarctic coastal waters. The lethal and sublethal (movement behavior) sensitivities of adults and juveniles of the Antarctic amphipod Paramoera walkeri to the water accommodated fractions (WAFs) of 3 fuels were estimated in extended-duration tests at -1 °C to 21 d. Response of P. walkeri for lethal hydrocarbon concentrations was slow, with 50% lethal concentrations (LC50s) first able to be estimated at 7 d for adults exposed to Special Antarctic Blend diesel (SAB), which had the highest hydrocarbon concentrations of the 3 fuel WAFs. Juveniles showed greater response to marine gas oil (MGO) and intermediate residual fuel oil (IFO 180) at longer exposure durations and were most sensitive at 21 d to IFO 180 (LC50 = 12 μg/L). Adults were initially more sensitive than juveniles; at 21 d, however, juveniles were more than twice as sensitive as adults to SAB (LC50 = 153 μg/L and 377 μg/L, respectively). Significant effects on movement behavior were evident at earlier time points and lower concentrations than was mortality in all 3 fuel WAFs, and juveniles were highly sensitive to sublethal effects of MGO. These first estimates of Antarctic amphipod sensitivity to diesel and fuel oils in seawater contribute to the development of ecologically relevant risk assessments for management of hydrocarbon contamination in the region. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2444-2455. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Estimating the prevalence of negative attitudes towards people with disability: a comparison of direct questioning, projective questioning and randomised response.

PubMed

Ostapczuk, Martin; Musch, Jochen

2011-01-01

Despite being susceptible to social desirability bias, attitudes towards people with disabilities are traditionally assessed via self-report. We investigated two methods presumably providing more valid prevalence estimates of sensitive attitudes than direct questioning (DQ). Most people projective questioning (MPPQ) attempts to reduce bias by asking interviewees to estimate the number of other people holding a sensitive attribute, rather than confirming or denying the attribute for themselves. The randomised-response technique (RRT) tries to reduce bias by assuring confidentiality through a random scrambling of the respondent's answers. We assessed negative attitudes towards people with physical and mental disability via MPPQ, RRT and DQ to compare the resulting estimates. The MPPQ estimates exceeded the DQ estimates. Employing a cheating-detection extension of the RRT, we determined the proportion of respondents disregarding the RRT instructions and computed an upper bound for the prevalence of negative attitudes. MPPQ estimates exceeded this upper bound and were thus shown to overestimate the prevalence. Furthermore, we found more negative attitudes towards people with mental disabilities than those with physical disabilities in all three questioning conditions. We recommend employing the cheating-detection variant of the RRT to gain additional insight in future studies on attitudes towards people with disabilities.

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

PubMed

Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model. Methods We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters. Results Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed. Conclusion The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring. PMID:23827014

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2017-10-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be. The consensus on the 'likely' range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C today is the same as given by Jule Charney in 1979, but now it is based on quantitative evidence from across the climate system and throughout climate history. The quest to constrain climate sensitivity has revealed important insights into the timescales of the climate system response, natural variability and limitations in observations and climate models, but also concerns about the simple concepts underlying climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, which opens avenues to better understand and constrain the climate response to forcing. Estimates of the transient climate response are better constrained by observed warming and are more relevant for predicting warming over the next decades. Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end.

Auditory brainstem responses in the Eastern Screech Owl: An estimate of auditory thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brittan-Powell, E.F.; Lohr, B.; Hahn, D.C.; Dooling, R.J.

2005-01-01

The auditory brainstem response (ABR), a measure of neural synchrony, was used to estimate auditory sensitivity in the eastern screech owl (Megascops asio). The typical screech owl ABR waveform showed two to three prominent peaks occurring within 5 ms of stimulus onset. As sound pressure levels increased, the ABR peak amplitude increased and latency decreased. With an increasing stimulus presentation rate, ABR peak amplitude decreased and latency increased. Generally, changes in the ABR waveform to stimulus intensity and repetition rate are consistent with the pattern found in several avian families. The ABR audiogram shows that screech owls hear best between 1.5 and 6.4 kHz with the most acute sensitivity between 4?5.7 kHz. The shape of the average screech owl ABR audiogram is similar to the shape of the behaviorally measured audiogram of the barn owl, except at the highest frequencies. Our data also show differences in overall auditory sensitivity between the color morphs of screech owls.

A Dexterous Optional Randomized Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarray, Tanveer A.; Singh, Housila P.; Yan, Zaizai

2017-01-01

This article addresses the problem of estimating the proportion Pi[subscript S] of the population belonging to a sensitive group using optional randomized response technique in stratified sampling based on Mangat model that has proportional and Neyman allocation and larger gain in efficiency. Numerically, it is found that the suggested model is…

Implementation of a weather responsive traffic estimation and prediction system (TrEPS) for signal timing at Utah DOT.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

The overall goal of this project is to integrate and operationalize weather-sensitive TrEPS models calibrated for the Salt Lake City region to support weather-responsive traffic signal timing implementation and evaluation in the Riverdale corridor in...

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

Modeling human perception and estimation of kinematic responses during aircraft landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, David K.; Silk, Anthony B.

1988-01-01

The thrust of this research is to determine estimation accuracy of aircraft responses based on observed cues. By developing the geometric relationships between the outside visual scene and the kinematics during landing, visual and kinesthetic cues available to the pilot were modeled. Both fovial and peripheral vision was examined. The objective was to first determine estimation accuracy in a variety of flight conditions, and second to ascertain which parameters are most important and lead to the best achievable accuracy in estimating the actual vehicle response. It was found that altitude estimation was very sensitive to the FOV. For this model the motion cue of perceived vertical acceleration was shown to be less important than the visual cues. The inclusion of runway geometry in the visual scene increased estimation accuracy in most cases. Finally, it was shown that for this model if the pilot has an incorrect internal model of the system kinematics the choice of observations thought to be 'optimal' may in fact be suboptimal.

Impact of different privacy conditions and incentives on survey response rate, participant representativeness, and disclosure of sensitive information: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Murdoch, Maureen; Simon, Alisha Baines; Polusny, Melissa Anderson; Bangerter, Ann Kay; Grill, Joseph Patrick; Noorbaloochi, Siamak; Partin, Melissa Ruth

2014-07-16

Anonymous survey methods appear to promote greater disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information compared to non-anonymous methods. Higher disclosure rates have traditionally been interpreted as being more accurate than lower rates. We examined the impact of 3 increasingly private mailed survey conditions-ranging from potentially identifiable to completely anonymous-on survey response and on respondents' representativeness of the underlying sampling frame, completeness in answering sensitive survey items, and disclosure of sensitive information. We also examined the impact of 2 incentives ($10 versus $20) on these outcomes. A 3X2 factorial, randomized controlled trial of 324 representatively selected, male Gulf War I era veterans who had applied for United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) disability benefits. Men were asked about past sexual assault experiences, childhood abuse, combat, other traumas, mental health symptoms, and sexual orientation. We used a novel technique, the pre-merged questionnaire, to link anonymous responses to administrative data. Response rates ranged from 56.0% to 63.3% across privacy conditions (p = 0.49) and from 52.8% to 68.1% across incentives (p = 0.007). Respondents' characteristics differed by privacy and by incentive assignments, with completely anonymous respondents and $20 respondents appearing least different from their non-respondent counterparts. Survey completeness did not differ by privacy or by incentive. No clear pattern of disclosing sensitive information by privacy condition or by incentive emerged. For example, although all respondents came from the same sampling frame, estimates of sexual abuse ranged from 13.6% to 33.3% across privacy conditions, with the highest estimate coming from the intermediate privacy condition (p = 0.007). Greater privacy and larger incentives do not necessarily result in higher disclosure rates of sensitive information than lesser privacy and lower incentives. Furthermore, disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information under differing privacy conditions may have less to do with promoting or impeding participants' "honesty" or "accuracy" than with selectively recruiting or attracting subpopulations that are higher or lower in such experiences. Pre-merged questionnaires bypassed many historical limitations of anonymous surveys and hold promise for exploring non-response issues in future research.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

PubMed

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

2016-07-06

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-07-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Enhancing the performance of coherent OTDR systems with polarization diversity complementary codes.

PubMed

Dorize, Christian; Awwad, Elie

2018-05-14

Monitoring the optical phase change in a fiber enables a wide range of applications where fast phase variations are induced by acoustic signals or by vibrations in general. However, the quality of the estimated fiber response strongly depends on the method used to modulate the light sent to the fiber and capture the variations of the optical field. In this paper, we show that distributed optical fiber sensing systems can advantageously exploit techniques from the telecommunication domain, as those used in coherent optical transmission, to enhance their performance in detecting mechanical events, while jointly offering a simpler setup than widespread pulse-cloning or spectral-sweep based schemes with acousto-optic modulators. We periodically capture an overall fiber Jones matrix estimate thanks to a novel probing technique using two mutually orthogonal complementary (Golay) pairs of binary sequences applied simultaneously in phase and quadrature on two orthogonal polarization states. A perfect channel response estimation of the sensor array is achieved, subject to conditions detailed in the paper, thus enhancing the sensitivity and bandwidth of coherent ϕ-OTDR systems. High sensitivity, linear response, and bandwidth coverage up to 18 kHz are demonstrated with a sensor array composed of 10 fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs).

Enhancing the performance of coherent OTDR systems with polarization diversity complementary codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorize, Christian; Awwad, Elie

2018-05-01

Monitoring the optical phase change in a fiber enables a wide range of applications where fast phase variations are induced by acoustic signals or vibrations in general. However, the quality of the estimated fiber response strongly depends on the method used to modulate the light sent to the fiber and capture the variations of the optical field. In this paper, we show that distributed optical fiber sensing systems can advantageously exploit techniques from the telecommunication domain, as those used in coherent optical transmission, to enhance their performance in detecting mechanical events, while jointly offering a simpler setup than widespread pulse-cloning or spectral-sweep based schemes with acousto-optic modulators. We periodically capture an overall fiber Jones matrix estimate thanks to a novel probing technique using two mutually orthogonal complementary (Golay) pairs of binary sequences applied simultaneously in phase and quadrature on two orthogonal polarization states. A perfect channel response estimation of the sensor array is achieved, subject to conditions detailed in the paper, thus enhancing the sensitivity and bandwidth of coherent phase-OTDR systems. High sensitivity, linear response, and bandwidth coverage up to 18 kHz are demonstrated with a sensor array composed of 10 fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs).

A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Eric J. Pedersen; Gregory King; Michael J.F. Pisaric

2010-01-01

Changes in Earth's environment are expected to stimulate changes in the composition and structure of ecosystems, but it is still unclear how the dynamics of these responses will play out over time. In long-lived forest systems, communities of established individuals may be resistant to respond to directional climate change, but may be highly sensitive to climate...

Selecting focal species as surrogates for imperiled species using relative sensitivities derived from occupancy analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silvano, Amy; Guyer, Craig; Steury, Todd; Grand, James B.

2017-01-01

Most imperiled species are rare or elusive and difficult to detect, which makes gathering data to estimate their response to habitat restoration a challenge. We used a repeatable, systematic method for selecting focal species using relative sensitivities derived from occupancy analysis. Our objective was to select suites of focal species that would be useful as surrogates when predicting effects of restoration of habitat characteristics preferred by imperiled species. We developed 27 habitat profiles that represent general habitat relationships for 118 imperiled species. We identified 23 regularly encountered species that were sensitive to important aspects of those profiles. We validated our approach by examining the correlation between estimated probabilities of occupancy for species of concern and focal species selected using our method. Occupancy rates of focal species were more related to occupancy rates of imperiled species when they were sensitive to more of the parameters appearing in profiles of imperiled species. We suggest that this approach can be an effective means of predicting responses by imperiled species to proposed management actions. However, adequate monitoring will be required to determine the effectiveness of using focal species to guide management actions.

Glaciological and hydrological sensitivities in the Hindu Kush - Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Joseph; Immerzeel, Walter

2016-04-01

Glacier responses to future climate change will affect hydrology at subbasin-scales. The main goal of this study is to assess glaciological and hydrological sensitivities of sub-basins throughout the Hindu Kush - Himalaya (HKH) region. We use a simple geometrical analysis based on a full glacier inventory and digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate sub-basin equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) from assumptions of steady-state accumulation area ratios (AARs). The ELA response to an increase in temperature is expressed as a function of mean annual precipitation, derived from a range of high-altitude studies. Changes in glacier contributions to streamflow in response to increased temperatures are examined for scenarios of both static and adjusted glacier geometries. On average, glacier contributions to streamflow increase by approximately 50% for a +1K warming based on a static geometry. Large decreases (-60% on average) occur in all basins when glacier geometries are instantaneously adjusted to reflect the new ELA. Finally, we provide estimates of sub-basin glacier response times that suggest a majority of basins will experience declining glacier contributions by the year 2100.

Modeled dosage-response relationship on the net photosynthetic rate for the sensitivity to acid rain of 21 plant species.

PubMed

Deng, Shihuai; Gou, Shuzhen; Sun, Baiye; Lv, Wenlin; Li, Yuanwei; Peng, Hong; Xiao, Hong; Yang, Gang; Wang, Yingjun

2012-08-01

This study investigated the sensitivity of plant species to acid rain based on the modeled dosage-response relationship on the net photosynthetic rate (P (N)) of 21 types of plant species, subjected to the exposure of simulated acid rain (SAR) for 5 times during a period of 50 days. Variable responses of P (N) to SAR occurred depending on the type of plant. A majority (13 species) of the dosage-response relationship could be described by an S-shaped curve and be fitted with the Boltzmann model. Model fitting allowed quantitative evaluation of the dosage-response relationship and an accurate estimation of the EC(10), termed as the pH of the acid rain resulting in a P (N) 10 % lower than the reference value. The top 9 species (Camellia sasanqua, Cinnamomum camphora, etc. EC(10) ≤ 3.0) are highly endurable to very acid rain. The rare, relict plant Metasequoia glyptostroboides was the most sensitive species (EC(10) = 5.1) recommended for protection.

Polyaniline/MWCNTs/starch modified carbon paste electrode for non-enzymatic detection of cholesterol: application to real sample (cow milk).

PubMed

Gautam, Vineeta; Singh, Karan P; Yadav, Vijay L

2018-03-01

Nanocomposite materials are potentially revolutionizing many technologies, including sensors. In this paper, we described the application of "PANI/MWCNTs/Starch" modified carbon paste electrode (PCS-CPE) as a simple and highly sensitive cholesterol sensor. This novel nano-composite material has integrated nano-morphology, where polyaniline could interact effectively with the additives; pi-pi stacking "MWCNTs," and covalently bonded with starch. Specific binding sites (sugar chains), better electro-catalytic properties and fast electron transfer facilitated the oxidation of cholesterol. Fourier transform infrared spectra confirmed the interaction of cholesterol with the composite material. The sensing response of PCS was measured by cyclic voltammetry and chronoamperometry (0.1 M PBS-5 used as supporting electrolyte). As the amount of cholesterol increased in the test solution, cyclic voltammograms showed a rise of peak current (cathodic and anodic). Under the normal experimental conditions, the developed sensor exhibited wide linear dynamic range (0.032 to 5 mM) (upper limit is due to lack of solubility of cholesterol), high sensitivity (800 μAmM -1  cm -2 ), low detection limit (0.01 mM) and shorter response time (within 4-6 s). Analytical specificity, selectivity, and sensitivity during cholesterol estimation were compared with the response of some other analytes (ascorbic acid, glucose, l-dopa, urea and lactic acid). This novel sensor was successfully applied to estimate cholesterol in cow milk (used as a model real sample). The sensing platform is highly sensitive and shows a linear response towards cholesterol without using any additional redox mediator or enzyme, thus this material is extremely promising for the realization of a low-cost integrated cholesterol sensor device. Graphical abstract Cyclic voltammetric response of cholesterol of composite modified carbon paste capillary electrode.

Engineering the metal sensitive sites in Macrolampis sp2 firefly luciferase and use as a novel bioluminescent ratiometric biosensor for heavy metals.

PubMed

Gabriel, Gabriele V M; Viviani, Vadim R

2016-12-01

Most luminescent biosensors for heavy metals are fluorescent and rely on intensity measurements, whereas a few are ratiometric and rely on spectral changes. Bioluminescent biosensors for heavy metals are less common. Firefly luciferases have been coupled to responsive promoters for mercury and arsenium, and used as light on biosensors. Firefly luciferase bioluminescence spectrum is naturally sensitive to heavy metal cations such as zinc and mercury and to pH. Although pH sensitivity of firefly luciferases was shown to be useful for ratiometric estimation of intracellular pH, its potential use for ratiometric estimation of heavy metals was never considered. Using the yellow-emitting Macrolampis sp2 firefly luciferase and site-directed mutagenesis, we show that the residues H310 and E354 constitute two critical sites for metal sensitivity that can be engineered to increase sensitivity to zinc, nickel, and mercury. A linear relationship between cation concentration and the ratio of bioluminescence intensities at 550 and 610 nm allowed, for the first time, the ratiometric estimation of heavy metals concentrations down to 0.10 mM, demonstrating the potential applicability of firefly luciferases as enzymatic and intracellular ratiometric metal biosensors.

Clinical evaluation of the vector algorithm for neonatal hearing screening using automated auditory brainstem response.

PubMed

Keohane, Bernie M; Mason, Steve M; Baguley, David M

2004-02-01

A novel auditory brainstem response (ABR) detection and scoring algorithm, entitled the Vector algorithm is described. An independent clinical evaluation of the algorithm using 464 tests (120 non-stimulated and 344 stimulated tests) on 60 infants, with a mean age of approximately 6.5 weeks, estimated test sensitivity greater than 0.99 and test specificity at 0.87 for one test. Specificity was estimated to be greater than 0.95 for a two stage screen. Test times were of the order of 1.5 minutes per ear for detection of an ABR and 4.5 minutes per ear in the absence of a clear response. The Vector algorithm is commercially available for both automated screening and threshold estimation in hearing screening devices.

Convergence in the temperature response of leaf respiration across biomes and plant functional types

PubMed Central

Heskel, Mary A.; O’Sullivan, Odhran S.; Reich, Peter B.; Tjoelker, Mark G.; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K.; Penillard, Aurore; Egerton, John J. G.; Creek, Danielle; Bloomfield, Keith J.; Xiang, Jen; Sinca, Felipe; Stangl, Zsofia R.; Martinez-de la Torre, Alberto; Griffin, Kevin L.; Huntingford, Chris; Hurry, Vaughan; Meir, Patrick; Turnbull, Matthew H.; Atkin, Owen K.

2016-01-01

Plant respiration constitutes a massive carbon flux to the atmosphere, and a major control on the evolution of the global carbon cycle. It therefore has the potential to modulate levels of climate change due to the human burning of fossil fuels. Neither current physiological nor terrestrial biosphere models adequately describe its short-term temperature response, and even minor differences in the shape of the response curve can significantly impact estimates of ecosystem carbon release and/or storage. Given this, it is critical to establish whether there are predictable patterns in the shape of the respiration–temperature response curve, and thus in the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of respiration across the globe. Analyzing measurements in a comprehensive database for 231 species spanning 7 biomes, we demonstrate that temperature-dependent increases in leaf respiration do not follow a commonly used exponential function. Instead, we find a decelerating function as leaves warm, reflecting a declining sensitivity to higher temperatures that is remarkably uniform across all biomes and plant functional types. Such convergence in the temperature sensitivity of leaf respiration suggests that there are universally applicable controls on the temperature response of plant energy metabolism, such that a single new function can predict the temperature dependence of leaf respiration for global vegetation. This simple function enables straightforward description of plant respiration in the land-surface components of coupled earth system models. Our cross-biome analyses shows significant implications for such fluxes in cold climates, generally projecting lower values compared with previous estimates. PMID:27001849

Convergence in the temperature response of leaf respiration across biomes and plant functional types.

PubMed

Heskel, Mary A; O'Sullivan, Odhran S; Reich, Peter B; Tjoelker, Mark G; Weerasinghe, Lasantha K; Penillard, Aurore; Egerton, John J G; Creek, Danielle; Bloomfield, Keith J; Xiang, Jen; Sinca, Felipe; Stangl, Zsofia R; Martinez-de la Torre, Alberto; Griffin, Kevin L; Huntingford, Chris; Hurry, Vaughan; Meir, Patrick; Turnbull, Matthew H; Atkin, Owen K

2016-04-05

Plant respiration constitutes a massive carbon flux to the atmosphere, and a major control on the evolution of the global carbon cycle. It therefore has the potential to modulate levels of climate change due to the human burning of fossil fuels. Neither current physiological nor terrestrial biosphere models adequately describe its short-term temperature response, and even minor differences in the shape of the response curve can significantly impact estimates of ecosystem carbon release and/or storage. Given this, it is critical to establish whether there are predictable patterns in the shape of the respiration-temperature response curve, and thus in the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of respiration across the globe. Analyzing measurements in a comprehensive database for 231 species spanning 7 biomes, we demonstrate that temperature-dependent increases in leaf respiration do not follow a commonly used exponential function. Instead, we find a decelerating function as leaves warm, reflecting a declining sensitivity to higher temperatures that is remarkably uniform across all biomes and plant functional types. Such convergence in the temperature sensitivity of leaf respiration suggests that there are universally applicable controls on the temperature response of plant energy metabolism, such that a single new function can predict the temperature dependence of leaf respiration for global vegetation. This simple function enables straightforward description of plant respiration in the land-surface components of coupled earth system models. Our cross-biome analyses shows significant implications for such fluxes in cold climates, generally projecting lower values compared with previous estimates.

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition.

PubMed

Falgreen, Steffen; Laursen, Maria Bach; Bødker, Julie Støve; Kjeldsen, Malene Krag; Schmitz, Alexander; Nyegaard, Mette; Johnsen, Hans Erik; Dybkær, Karen; Bøgsted, Martin

2014-06-05

In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves' dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological interpretations. Time independent summary statistics may aid the understanding of drugs' action mechanism on tumour cells and potentially renew previous drug sensitivity evaluation studies.

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves’ dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. Results First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological interpretations. Conclusion Time independent summary statistics may aid the understanding of drugs’ action mechanism on tumour cells and potentially renew previous drug sensitivity evaluation studies. PMID:24902483

Do land surface models need to include differential plant species responses to drought? Examining model predictions across a mesic-xeric gradient in Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Kauwe, M. G.; Zhou, S. -X.; Medlyn, B. E.

Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe, making it essential that land surface models (LSMs) used in coupled climate models realistically capture the drought responses of vegetation. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art LSMs currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. We tested whether variable drought sensitivities are needed to explain the observed large-scale patterns of drought impact on the carbon, water and energy fluxes. We implemented data-driven drought sensitivities in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSMmore » and evaluated alternative sensitivities across a latitudinal gradient in Europe during the 2003 heatwave. The model predicted an overly abrupt onset of drought unless average soil water potential was calculated with dynamic weighting across soil layers. We found that high drought sensitivity at the most mesic sites, and low drought sensitivity at the most xeric sites, was necessary to accurately model responses during drought. Furthermore, our results indicate that LSMs will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.« less

Do land surface models need to include differential plant species responses to drought? Examining model predictions across a mesic-xeric gradient in Europe

DOE PAGES

De Kauwe, M. G.; Zhou, S. -X.; Medlyn, B. E.; ...

2015-12-21

Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe, making it essential that land surface models (LSMs) used in coupled climate models realistically capture the drought responses of vegetation. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art LSMs currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. We tested whether variable drought sensitivities are needed to explain the observed large-scale patterns of drought impact on the carbon, water and energy fluxes. We implemented data-driven drought sensitivities in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSMmore » and evaluated alternative sensitivities across a latitudinal gradient in Europe during the 2003 heatwave. The model predicted an overly abrupt onset of drought unless average soil water potential was calculated with dynamic weighting across soil layers. We found that high drought sensitivity at the most mesic sites, and low drought sensitivity at the most xeric sites, was necessary to accurately model responses during drought. Furthermore, our results indicate that LSMs will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.« less

Assessment of GABA(A)benzodiazepine receptor (GBzR) sensitivity in patients on benzodiazepines.

PubMed

Potokar, J; Coupland, N; Wilson, S; Rich, A; Nutt, D

1999-09-01

To measure GABA(A) benzodiazepine receptor sensitivity in patients taking benzodiazepines and compare with matched controls. Seven patients who were on prescribed benzodiazepines for an anxiety disorder or insomnia were recruited from general practice and an adult mental health service outpatient clinic. They were matched with seven volunteers. All subjects received an intravenous injection of midazolam 50 microgram/kg in 10 ml normal saline over 10 min. Objective responses to midazolam were assessed using saccadic eye movement velocity slowing and subjective assessments using visual analogue scales. Measurements were recorded for 120 min and plasma midazolam concentrations obtained at 15-min intervals post-infusion to 120 min. Ratios of pharmacodynamic/pharmacokinetic effects were obtained for each individual to estimate GABA(A) benzodiazepine receptor sensitivity. Patients had an attenuated response to midazolam on both subjective and objective measures. GABA(A) benzodiazepine receptor sensitivity was significantly reduced in the patient group. Chronic treatment with benzodiazepines was associated with reduced effects of midazolam. Saccadic eye movement velocity was especially sensitive as a measure of attenuated response.

Characteristics and Impact of Imperviousness From a GIS-based Hydrological Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moglen, G. E.; Kim, S.

2005-12-01

With the concern that imperviousness can be differently quantified depending on data sources and methods, this study assessed imperviousness estimates using two different data sources: land use and land cover. Year 2000 land use developed by the Maryland Department of Planning was utilized to estimate imperviousness by assigning imperviousness coefficients to unique land use categories. These estimates were compared with imperviousness estimates based on satellite-derived land cover from the 2001 National Land Cover Dataset. Our study developed the relationships between these two estimates in the form of regression equations to convert imperviousness derived from one data source to the other. The regression equations are considered reliable, based on goodness-of-fit measures. Furthermore, this study examined how quantitatively different imperviousness estimates affect the prediction of hydrological response both in the flow regime and in the thermal regime. We assessed the relationships between indicators of hydrological response and imperviousness-descriptors. As indicators of flow variability, coefficient of variance, lag-one autocorrelation, and mean daily flow change were calculated based on measured mean daily stream flow from the water year 1997 to 2003. For thermal variability, indicators such as percent-days of surge, degree-day, and mean daily temperature difference were calculated base on measured stream temperature over several basins in Maryland. To describe imperviousness through the hydrological process, GIS-based spatially distributed hydrological models were developed based on a water-balance method and the SCS-CN method. Imperviousness estimates from land use and land cover were used as predictors in these models to examine the effect of imperviousness using different data sources on the prediction of hydrological response. Indicators of hydrological response were also regressed on aggregate imperviousness. This allowed for identifying if hydrological response is more sensitive to spatially distributed imperviousness or aggregate (lumped) imperviousness. The regressions between indicators of hydrological response and imperviousness-descriptors were evaluated by examining goodness-of-fit measures such as explained variance or relative standard error. The results show that imperviousness estimates using land use are better predictors of flow variability and thermal variability than imperviousness estimates using land cover. Also, this study reveals that flow variability is more sensitive to spatially distributed models than lumped models, while thermal variability is equally responsive to both models. The findings from this study can be further examined from a policy perspective with regard to policies that are based on a threshold concept for imperviousness impacts on the ecological and hydrological system.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of plasmonic structures using the FDTD method.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Ahmed, Osman S; Bakr, Mohamed H

2014-05-15

We present an adjoint variable method for estimating the sensitivities of arbitrary responses with respect to the parameters of dispersive discontinuities in nanoplasmonic devices. Our theory is formulated in terms of the electric field components at the vicinity of perturbed discontinuities. The adjoint sensitivities are computed using at most one extra finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation regardless of the number of parameters. Our approach is illustrated through the sensitivity analysis of an add-drop coupler consisting of a square ring resonator between two parallel waveguides. The computed adjoint sensitivities of the scattering parameters are compared with those obtained using the accurate but computationally expensive central finite difference approach.

Sensitivity to Change and Responsiveness of Four Balance Measures for Community-Dwelling Older Adults

PubMed Central

Latham, Nancy K.; Jette, Alan M.; Wagenaar, Robert C.; Ni, Pengsheng; Slavin, Mary D.; Bean, Jonathan F.

2012-01-01

Background Impaired balance has a significant negative impact on mobility, functional independence, and fall risk in older adults. Although several, well-respected balance measures are currently in use, there is limited evidence regarding the most appropriate measure to assess change in community-dwelling older adults. Objective The aim of this study was to compare floor and ceiling effects, sensitivity to change, and responsiveness across the following balance measures in community-dwelling elderly people with functional limitations: Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment total scale (POMA-T), POMA balance subscale (POMA-B), and Dynamic Gait Index (DGI). Design Retrospective data from a 16-week exercise trial were used. Secondary analyses were conducted on the total sample and by subgroups of baseline functional limitation or baseline balance scores. Methods Participants were 111 community-dwelling older adults 65 years of age or older, with functional limitations. Sensitivity to change was assessed using effect size, standardized response mean, and paired t tests. Responsiveness was assessed using minimally important difference (MID) estimates. Results No floor effects were noted. Ceiling effects were observed on all measures, including in people with moderate to severe functional limitations. The POMA-T, POMA-B, and DGI showed significantly larger ceiling effects compared with the BBS. All measures had low sensitivity to change in total sample analyses. Subgroup analyses revealed significantly better sensitivity to change in people with lower compared with higher baseline balance scores. Although both the total sample and lower baseline balance subgroups showed statistically significant improvement from baseline to 16 weeks on all measures, only the lower balance subgroup showed change scores that consistently exceeded corresponding MID estimates. Limitations This study was limited to comparing 4 measures of balance, and anchor-based methods for assessing MID could not be reported. Conclusions Important limitations, including ceiling effects and relatively low sensitivity to change and responsiveness, were noted across all balance measures, highlighting their limited utility across the full spectrum of the community-dwelling elderly population. New, more challenging measures are needed for better discrimination of balance ability in community-dwelling elderly people at higher functional levels. PMID:22114200

SENSITIVITY OF STRUCTURAL RESPONSE TO GROUND MOTION SOURCE AND SITE PARAMETERS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal; Brebbia, C.A.; Cakmak, A.S.; Abdel Ghaffar, A.M.

1985-01-01

Designing structures to withstand earthquakes requires an accurate estimation of the expected ground motion. While engineers use the peak ground acceleration (PGA) to model the strong ground motion, seismologists use physical characteristics of the source and the rupture mechanism, such as fault length, stress drop, shear wave velocity, seismic moment, distance, and attenuation. This study presents a method for calculating response spectra from seismological models using random vibration theory. It then investigates the effect of various source and site parameters on peak response. Calculations are based on a nonstationary stochastic ground motion model, which can incorporate all the parameters both in frequency and time domains. The estimation of the peak response accounts for the effects of the non-stationarity, bandwidth and peak correlations of the response.

Constraining ozone-precursor responsiveness using ambient measurements

EPA Science Inventory

This study develops probabilistic estimates of ozone (O3) sensitivities to precursoremissions by incorporating uncertainties in photochemical modeling and evaluating modelperformance based on ground-level observations of O3 and oxides of nitrogen (NOx).Uncertainties in model form...

Design optimization for a wearable, gamma-ray and neutron sensitive, detector array with directionality estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayaz-Maierhafer, Birsen; Britt, Carl G.; August, Andrew J.; Qi, Hairong; Seifert, Carolyn E.; Hayward, Jason P.

2017-10-01

In this study, we report on a constrained optimization and tradeoff study of a hybrid, wearable detector array having directional sensing based upon gamma-ray occlusion. One resulting design uses CLYC detectors while the second feasibility design involves the coupling of gamma-ray-sensitive CsI scintillators and a rubber LiCaAlF6 (LiCAF) neutron detector. The detector systems' responses were investigated through simulation as a function of angle in a two-dimensional plane. The expected total counts, peak-to-total ratio, directionality performance, and detection of 40 K for accurate gain stabilization were considered in the optimization. Source directionality estimation was investigated using Bayesian algorithms. Gamma-ray energies of 122 keV, 662 keV, and 1332 keV were considered. The equivalent neutron capture response compared with 3 He was also investigated for both designs.

Pulse-shape discrimination between electron and nuclear recoils in a NaI(Tl) crystal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. S.; Adhikari, G.; Adhikari, P.; Choi, S.; Hahn, I. S.; Jeon, E. J.; Joo, H. W.; Kang, W. G.; Kim, G. B.; Kim, H. J.; Kim, H. O.; Kim, K. W.; Kim, N. Y.; Kim, S. K.; Kim, Y. D.; Kim, Y. H.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, M. H.; Leonard, D. S.; Li, J.; Oh, S. Y.; Olsen, S. L.; Park, H. K.; Park, H. S.; Park, K. S.; Shim, J. H.; So, J. H.

2015-08-01

We report on the response of a high light-output NaI(Tl) crystal to nuclear recoils induced by neutrons from an Am-Be source and compare the results with the response to electron recoils produced by Compton-scattered 662 keV γ-rays from a 137Cs source. The measured pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) power of the NaI(Tl) crystal is found to be significantly improved because of the high light output of the NaI(Tl) detector. We quantify the PSD power with a quality factor and estimate the sensitivity to the interaction rate for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) with nucleons, and the result is compared with the annual modulation amplitude observed by the DAMA/LIBRA experiment. The sensitivity to spin-independent WIMP-nucleon interactions based on 100 kg·year of data from NaI detectors is estimated with simulated experiments, using the standard halo model.

Carbon and water flux responses to physiology by environment interactions: a sensitivity analysis of variation in climate on photosynthetic and stomatal parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauerle, William L.; Daniels, Alex B.; Barnard, David M.

2014-05-01

Sensitivity of carbon uptake and water use estimates to changes in physiology was determined with a coupled photosynthesis and stomatal conductance ( g s) model, linked to canopy microclimate with a spatially explicit scheme (MAESTRA). The sensitivity analyses were conducted over the range of intraspecific physiology parameter variation observed for Acer rubrum L. and temperate hardwood C3 (C3) vegetation across the following climate conditions: carbon dioxide concentration 200-700 ppm, photosynthetically active radiation 50-2,000 μmol m-2 s-1, air temperature 5-40 °C, relative humidity 5-95 %, and wind speed at the top of the canopy 1-10 m s-1. Five key physiological inputs [quantum yield of electron transport ( α), minimum stomatal conductance ( g 0), stomatal sensitivity to the marginal water cost of carbon gain ( g 1), maximum rate of electron transport ( J max), and maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco ( V cmax)] changed carbon and water flux estimates ≥15 % in response to climate gradients; variation in α, J max, and V cmax input resulted in up to ~50 and 82 % intraspecific and C3 photosynthesis estimate output differences respectively. Transpiration estimates were affected up to ~46 and 147 % by differences in intraspecific and C3 g 1 and g 0 values—two parameters previously overlooked in modeling land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. We show that a variable environment, within a canopy or along a climate gradient, changes the spatial parameter effects of g 0, g 1, α, J max, and V cmax in photosynthesis- g s models. Since variation in physiology parameter input effects are dependent on climate, this approach can be used to assess the geographical importance of key physiology model inputs when estimating large scale carbon and water exchange.

Comparison of the diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of four odontological methods for age evaluation in Italian children at the age threshold of 14 years using ROC curves.

PubMed

Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Vitale, Giulia; Rugo, Dario; Nieri, Michele; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

2016-01-01

The age threshold of 14 years is relevant in Italy as the minimum age for criminal responsibility. It is of utmost importance to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of every odontological method for age evaluation considering the sensitivity, or the ability to estimate the true positive cases, and the specificity, or the ability to estimate the true negative cases. The research aims to compare the specificity and sensitivity of four commonly adopted methods of dental age estimation - Demirjian, Haavikko, Willems and Cameriere - in a sample of Italian children aged between 11 and 16 years, with an age threshold of 14 years, using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). In addition, new decision criteria are developed to increase the accuracy of the methods. Among the four odontological methods for age estimation adopted in the research, the Cameriere method showed the highest AUC in both female and male cohorts. The Cameriere method shows a high degree of accuracy at the age threshold of 14 years. To adopt the Cameriere method to estimate the 14-year age threshold more accurately, however, it is suggested - according to the Youden index - that the decision criterion be set at the lower value of 12.928 for females and 13.258 years for males, obtaining a sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 88% in females, and a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 92% in males. If a specificity level >90% is needed, the cut-off point should be set at 12.959 years (82% sensitivity) for females. © The Author(s) 2015.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans. PMID:27381500

Weathering the storm: hurricanes and birth outcomes.

PubMed

Currie, Janet; Rossin-Slater, Maya

2013-05-01

A growing literature suggests that stressful events in pregnancy can have negative effects on birth outcomes. Some of the estimates in this literature may be affected by small samples, omitted variables, endogenous mobility in response to disasters, and errors in the measurement of gestation, as well as by a mechanical correlation between longer gestation and the probability of having been exposed. We use millions of individual birth records to examine the effects of exposure to hurricanes during pregnancy, and the sensitivity of the estimates to these econometric problems. We find that exposure to a hurricane during pregnancy increases the probability of abnormal conditions of the newborn such as being on a ventilator more than 30min and meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). Although we are able to reproduce previous estimates of effects on birth weight and gestation, our results suggest that measured effects of stressful events on these outcomes are sensitive to specification and it is preferable to use more sensitive indicators of newborn health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weathering the Storm: Hurricanes and Birth Outcomes

PubMed Central

Currie, Janet

2013-01-01

A growing literature suggests that stressful events in pregnancy can have negative effects on birth outcomes. Some of the estimates in this literature may be affected by small samples, omitted variables, endogenous mobility in response to disasters, and errors in the measurement of gestation, as well as by a mechanical correlation between longer gestation and the probability of having been exposed. We use millions of individual birth records to examine the effects of exposure to hurricanes during pregnancy, and the sensitivity of the estimates to these econometric problems. We find that exposure to a hurricane during pregnancy increases the probability of abnormal conditions of the newborn such as being on a ventilator more than 30 minutes and meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). Although we are able to reproduce previous estimates of effects on birth weight and gestation, our results suggest that measured effects of stressful events on these outcomes are sensitive to specification and it is preferable to use more sensitive indicators of newborn health. PMID:23500506

Estimating TCR using an integrated model-observation framework that accounts for spatio-temporal variability and pre-industrial radiative imbalances.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, K.; Schurer, A. P.; Venema, V.

2016-12-01

Apart from a few exceptions (e.g. Aldrin et al. 2012, Skeie et al. 2013) TCR estimates with EBMs are based on global data. Since these estimates don't represent the true spatial-temporal behaviour for observed temperature as well as external forcing (Marvel et al. 2015), we have developed a two-box EBM framework that accounts for these effects. In addition, external forcing from anthropogenic aerosol and GHGs tends to have different response times in comparison to volcanic stratospheric aerosols. Using PMIP3 and an extended ensemble of HadCM3 simulations (Euro500; Schurer et al. 2014) GCM simulations for the pre-industrial period, we obtain the fast and slow response time constants required in the EBM. With the most recent anthropogenic and natural forcing estimates, we test a range of TCR values against observations. The TCR/ECS ratio necessary to achieve that goal is taken from CMIP5 as observationally OHC-based estimates are notoriously unreliable. Given that observed and modelled OHC estimates are in agreement (Cheng et al. 2016), we argue that this should be the standard procedure the make inferences about ECS. Alternatively, it should be distinguished between equilibrium and effective climate sensitivity. The preliminary best estimate for TCR is 1.6K (1.1-2.2K) with an associated ECS value of 2.9K (2.0-4.0K). This is in good agreement with other D&A techniques that do use spatio-temporal patterns as well (e.g. Jones et al. 2016, Gillet et al. 2013). Correcting for natural ENSO variability and tas/tos-related inaccuracies (Richardson et al. 2016) further increases the robustness of the estimated sensitivity range. Our results also indicate that the small radiative imbalance caused by the period of very strong volcanic eruptions just before the CMIP5 historical period starts (1809-1840) has noteworthy implications for the response to later volcanic eruptions and the temperature evolution after 1850. Simply put, CMIP5-type simulations are slightly more sensitive to volcanic eruptions than PMIP3-type simulations. This has been pointed out in the literature before (e.g. Gleckler et al. 2006, Stenchikov et al. 2009, Gregory et al. 2010). We therefore argue that more PMIP3-type of experiments are needed to factor in the planetary energy imbalance caused by earlier volcanic eruptions.

Effects of model spatial resolution on ecohydrologic predictions and their sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability

Treesearch

Kyongho Son; Christina Tague; Carolyn Hunsaker

2016-01-01

The effect of fine-scale topographic variability on model estimates of ecohydrologic responses to climate variability in California’s Sierra Nevada watersheds has not been adequately quantified and may be important for supporting reliable climate-impact assessments. This study tested the effect of digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on model accuracy and estimates...

Physical and cognitive doping in university students using the unrelated question model (UQM): Assessing the influence of the probability of receiving the sensitive question on prevalence estimation.

PubMed

Dietz, Pavel; Quermann, Anne; van Poppel, Mireille Nicoline Maria; Striegel, Heiko; Schröter, Hannes; Ulrich, Rolf; Simon, Perikles

2018-01-01

In order to increase the value of randomized response techniques (RRTs) as tools for studying sensitive issues, the present study investigated whether the prevalence estimate for a sensitive item [Formula: see text] assessed with the unrelated questionnaire method (UQM) is influenced by changing the probability of receiving the sensitive question p. A short paper-and-pencil questionnaire was distributed to 1.243 university students assessing the 12-month prevalence of physical and cognitive doping using two versions of the UQM with different probabilities for receiving the sensitive question (p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3). Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether the prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive doping differed significantly between p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3. The order of questions (physical doping and cognitive doping) as well as the probability of receiving the sensitive question (p ≈ 1/3 or p ≈ 2/3) were counterbalanced across participants. Statistical power analyses were performed to determine sample size. The prevalence estimate for physical doping with p ≈ 1/3 was 22.5% (95% CI: 10.8-34.1), and 12.8% (95% CI: 7.6-18.0) with p ≈ 2/3. For cognitive doping with p ≈ 1/3, the estimated prevalence was 22.5% (95% CI: 11.0-34.1), whereas it was 18.0% (95% CI: 12.5-23.5) with p ≈ 2/3. Likelihood-ratio tests revealed that prevalence estimates for both physical and cognitive doping, respectively, did not differ significantly under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3 (physical doping: χ2 = 2.25, df = 1, p = 0.13; cognitive doping: χ2 = 0.49, df = 1, p = 0.48). Bayes factors computed with the Savage-Dickey method favored the null ("the prevalence estimates are identical under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3") over the alternative ("the prevalence estimates differ under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3") hypothesis for both physical doping (BF = 2.3) and cognitive doping (BF = 5.3). The present results suggest that prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive doping assessed by the UQM are largely unaffected by the probability for receiving the sensitive question p.

Colorimetry for CRT displays.

PubMed

Golz, Jürgen; MacLeod, Donald I A

2003-05-01

We analyze the sources of error in specifying color in CRT displays. These include errors inherent in the use of the color matching functions of the CIE 1931 standard observer when only colorimetric, not radiometric, calibrations are available. We provide transformation coefficients that prove to correct the deficiencies of this observer very well. We consider four different candidate sets of cone sensitivities. Some of these differ substantially; variation among candidate cone sensitivities exceeds the variation among phosphors. Finally, the effects of the recognized forms of observer variation on the visual responses (cone excitations or cone contrasts) generated by CRT stimuli are investigated and quantitatively specified. Cone pigment polymorphism gives rise to variation of a few per cent in relative excitation by the different phosphors--a variation larger than the errors ensuing from the adoption of the CIE standard observer, though smaller than the differences between some candidate cone sensitivities. Macular pigmentation has a larger influence, affecting mainly responses to the blue phosphor. The estimated combined effect of all sources of observer variation is comparable in magnitude with the largest differences between competing cone sensitivity estimates but is not enough to disrupt very seriously the relation between the L and M cone weights and the isoluminance settings of individual observers. It is also comparable with typical instrumental colorimetric errors, but we discuss these only briefly.

Dim-light sensitivity of cells in the awake cat's lateral geniculate and medial interlaminar nuclei: a correlation with behavior.

PubMed

Kang, Incheol; Malpeli, Joseph G

2009-08-01

Contrast thresholds of cells in the dorsal lateral geniculate (LGNd) and medial interlaminar (MIN) nuclei of awake cats were measured for scotopic and mesopic vision with drifting sine gratings (1/8, 2, and 4 cycles/deg [cpd]; 4-Hz temporal frequency). Thresholds for mean firing rate (F0) and temporally modulated responses (F1) were derived with receiver-operating-characteristic analyses and compared with behavioral measures recently reported by Kang and colleagues. Behavioral sensitivity was predicted by the neural responses of the most sensitive combinations of cell class and response mode: Y-cell F1 responses for 1/8 cpd, X-cell F1 responses for 2 cpd, and Y-cell F0 responses for 4 cpd. All previous estimates of neural scotopic increment thresholds in animal models fell between Weber's law (proportional to retinal illuminance) and the deVries-Rose law (proportional to the square root of illuminance). However, psychophysical experiments suggest that under appropriate conditions human scotopic vision follows the deVries-Rose law. If behavioral sensitivity is assumed to be determined by the most sensitive class of cells, this discrepancy is resolved. Under scotopic conditions, off-center Y cells were the most sensitive and these followed the deVries-Rose law fairly closely. MIN Y cells were, on average, 0.25 log units more sensitive than LGNd Y cells under scotopic conditions, supporting a previous proposal that the MIN is a specialization of the carnivore for dim-light vision. We conclude that both physiologically and behaviorally, cat and human scotopic vision are fundamentally similar, including adherence to the deVries-Rose law for detection of Gabor functions.

Properties of model-averaged BMDLs: a study of model averaging in dichotomous response risk estimation.

PubMed

Wheeler, Matthew W; Bailer, A John

2007-06-01

Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accounting for model uncertainty in benchmark dose (BMD) estimation. The technique has been used to average BMD dose estimates derived from dichotomous dose-response experiments, microbial dose-response experiments, as well as observational epidemiological studies. While MA is a promising tool for the risk assessor, a previous study suggested that the simple strategy of averaging individual models' BMD lower limits did not yield interval estimators that met nominal coverage levels in certain situations, and this performance was very sensitive to the underlying model space chosen. We present a different, more computationally intensive, approach in which the BMD is estimated using the average dose-response model and the corresponding benchmark dose lower bound (BMDL) is computed by bootstrapping. This method is illustrated with TiO(2) dose-response rat lung cancer data, and then systematically studied through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The results of this study suggest that the MA-BMD, estimated using this technique, performs better, in terms of bias and coverage, than the previous MA methodology. Further, the MA-BMDL achieves nominal coverage in most cases, and is superior to picking the "best fitting model" when estimating the benchmark dose. Although these results show utility of MA for benchmark dose risk estimation, they continue to highlight the importance of choosing an adequate model space as well as proper model fit diagnostics.

Inversed estimation of critical factors for controlling over-prediction of summertime tropospheric O3 over East Asia based of the combination of DDM sensitivity analysis and modeled Green's function method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itahashi, S.; Yumimoto, K.; Uno, I.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

Air quality studies based on the chemical transport model have been provided many important results for promoting our knowledge of air pollution phenomena, however, discrepancies between modeling results and observation data are still important issue to overcome. One of the concerning issue would be an over-prediction of summertime tropospheric ozone in remote area of Japan. This problem has been pointed out in the model comparison study of both regional scale (e.g., MICS-Asia) and global scale model (e.g., TH-FTAP). Several reasons for this issue can be listed as, (i) the modeled reproducibility on the penetration of clean oceanic air mass, (ii) correct estimation of the anthropogenic NOx / VOC emissions over East Asia, (iii) the chemical reaction scheme used in model simulation. In this study, we attempt to inverse estimation of some important chemical reactions based on the combining system of DDM (decoupled direct method) sensitivity analysis and modeled Green's function approach. The decoupled direct method (DDM) is an efficient and accurate way of performing sensitivity analysis to model inputs, calculates sensitivity coefficients representing the responsiveness of atmospheric chemical concentrations to perturbations in a model input or parameter. The inverse solutions with the Green's functions are given by a linear, least-squares method but are still robust against nonlinearities, To construct the response matrix (i.e., Green's functions), we can directly use the results of DDM sensitivity analysis. The solution of chemical reaction constants which have relatively large uncertainties are determined with constraints of observed ozone concentration data over the remote area in Japan. Our inversed estimation demonstrated that the underestimation of reaction constant to produce HNO3 (NO2 + OH + M → HNO3 + M) in SAPRC99 chemical scheme, and the inversed results indicated the +29.0 % increment to this reaction. This estimation has good agreement when compared with the CB4 and CB5, and also to the SAPRC07 estimation. For the NO2 photolysis rates, 49.4 % reduction was pronounced. This result indicates the importance of heavy aerosol effect for the change of photolysis rate must be incorporated in the numerical study.

Impact of different privacy conditions and incentives on survey response rate, participant representativeness, and disclosure of sensitive information: a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Anonymous survey methods appear to promote greater disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information compared to non-anonymous methods. Higher disclosure rates have traditionally been interpreted as being more accurate than lower rates. We examined the impact of 3 increasingly private mailed survey conditions—ranging from potentially identifiable to completely anonymous—on survey response and on respondents’ representativeness of the underlying sampling frame, completeness in answering sensitive survey items, and disclosure of sensitive information. We also examined the impact of 2 incentives ($10 versus $20) on these outcomes. Methods A 3X2 factorial, randomized controlled trial of 324 representatively selected, male Gulf War I era veterans who had applied for United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) disability benefits. Men were asked about past sexual assault experiences, childhood abuse, combat, other traumas, mental health symptoms, and sexual orientation. We used a novel technique, the pre-merged questionnaire, to link anonymous responses to administrative data. Results Response rates ranged from 56.0% to 63.3% across privacy conditions (p = 0.49) and from 52.8% to 68.1% across incentives (p = 0.007). Respondents’ characteristics differed by privacy and by incentive assignments, with completely anonymous respondents and $20 respondents appearing least different from their non-respondent counterparts. Survey completeness did not differ by privacy or by incentive. No clear pattern of disclosing sensitive information by privacy condition or by incentive emerged. For example, although all respondents came from the same sampling frame, estimates of sexual abuse ranged from 13.6% to 33.3% across privacy conditions, with the highest estimate coming from the intermediate privacy condition (p = 0.007). Conclusion Greater privacy and larger incentives do not necessarily result in higher disclosure rates of sensitive information than lesser privacy and lower incentives. Furthermore, disclosure of sensitive or stigmatizing information under differing privacy conditions may have less to do with promoting or impeding participants’ “honesty” or “accuracy” than with selectively recruiting or attracting subpopulations that are higher or lower in such experiences. Pre-merged questionnaires bypassed many historical limitations of anonymous surveys and hold promise for exploring non-response issues in future research. PMID:25027174

Local lymph node assay (LLNA) for detection of sensitization capacity of chemicals.

PubMed

Gerberick, G Frank; Ryan, Cindy A; Dearman, Rebecca J; Kimber, Ian

2007-01-01

The local lymph node assay (LLNA) is a murine model developed to evaluate the skin sensitization potential of chemicals. The LLNA is an alternative approach to traditional guinea pig methods and in comparison provides important animal welfare benefits. The assay relies on measurement of events induced during the induction phase of skin sensitization, specifically lymphocyte proliferation in the draining lymph nodes which is a hallmark of a skin sensitization response. Since its introduction the LLNA has been the subject of extensive evaluation on a national and international scale, and has been successfully validated and incorporated worldwide into regulatory guidelines. Experience gained in recent years has demonstrated that adherence to published procedures and guidelines for the LLNA (e.g., with respect to dose and vehicle selection) is critical for the successful conduct and eventual interpretation of the data. In addition to providing a robust method for skin sensitization hazard identification, the LLNA has proven very useful in assessing the skin sensitizing potency of test chemicals, and this has provided invaluable information to risk assessors. The primary method to make comparisons of the relative potency of chemical sensitizers is to use linear interpolation to estimate the concentration of chemical required to induce a stimulation index of three relative to concurrent vehicle-treated controls (EC3). In certain situations where there are available less than optimal dose response data a log-linear extrapolation method can be used to estimate an EC3 value which can reduce significantly the need for repeat testing of chemicals. The LLNA, when conducted according to published guidelines, provides a robust method for skin sensitization testing that not only provides reliable hazard identification information but also data necessary for effective risk assessment and risk management.

A dose related response of 6-OHDA on chicken spectral sensitivity and oscillatory potentials of recording electroretinograms.

PubMed

Li, X; Schaeffel, F; Konrad, K; Eberhart, Z

1996-10-01

To further study the contribution of dopamine system to the local growth controlling mechanisms, a dose related response of 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) was studied by recording electroretinograms (ERGs). The spectral sensitivity of the b-waves and spectral efficiency function of oscillatory potentials (OPs) including OP1, OP2 and OP3 in 4 different doses group were measured. The effect of ascorbate that must be contained in solution of 6-OHDA was first tested with the spectral sensitivity of the b-waves and a correlation between response of the OPs and age, as well as a difference in both own eyes was analyzed for determining an intra-subject and inter-subject variance. An enhanced response was found in OP1, OP2 with doses of 175 micrograms and OP3 with dose of 150 micrograms, and the effect of OPs was mainly in wavelength from 620 nm to 480 nm. No significant increase was found in the spectral sensitivity of the b-waves. The dose 200 micrograms seemed to be toxic to the retina estimated by both spectral sensitivity of the b-waves and spectral efficiency function of the OPs. The dose 175 micrograms and 150 micrograms of 6-OHDA yielded an effect on the chicken retina.

Temporal sampling, resetting, and adaptation orchestrate gradient sensing in sperm

PubMed Central

Alvarez, Luis; Seifert, Reinhard; Gregor, Ingo; Jäckle, Oliver; Beyermann, Michael; Krause, Eberhard

2012-01-01

Sperm, navigating in a chemical gradient, are exposed to a periodic stream of chemoattractant molecules. The periodic stimulation entrains Ca2+ oscillations that control looping steering responses. It is not known how sperm sample chemoattractant molecules during periodic stimulation and adjust their sensitivity. We report that sea urchin sperm sampled molecules for 0.2–0.6 s before a Ca2+ response was produced. Additional molecules delivered during a Ca2+ response reset the cell by causing a pronounced Ca2+ drop that terminated the response; this reset was followed by a new Ca2+ rise. After stimulation, sperm adapted their sensitivity following the Weber–Fechner law. Taking into account the single-molecule sensitivity, we estimate that sperm can register a minimal gradient of 0.8 fM/µm and be attracted from as far away as 4.7 mm. Many microorganisms sense stimulus gradients along periodic paths to translate a spatial distribution of the stimulus into a temporal pattern of the cell response. Orchestration of temporal sampling, resetting, and adaptation might control gradient sensing in such organisms as well. PMID:22986497

Temporal sampling, resetting, and adaptation orchestrate gradient sensing in sperm.

PubMed

Kashikar, Nachiket D; Alvarez, Luis; Seifert, Reinhard; Gregor, Ingo; Jäckle, Oliver; Beyermann, Michael; Krause, Eberhard; Kaupp, U Benjamin

2012-09-17

Sperm, navigating in a chemical gradient, are exposed to a periodic stream of chemoattractant molecules. The periodic stimulation entrains Ca(2+) oscillations that control looping steering responses. It is not known how sperm sample chemoattractant molecules during periodic stimulation and adjust their sensitivity. We report that sea urchin sperm sampled molecules for 0.2-0.6 s before a Ca(2+) response was produced. Additional molecules delivered during a Ca(2+) response reset the cell by causing a pronounced Ca(2+) drop that terminated the response; this reset was followed by a new Ca(2+) rise. After stimulation, sperm adapted their sensitivity following the Weber-Fechner law. Taking into account the single-molecule sensitivity, we estimate that sperm can register a minimal gradient of 0.8 fM/µm and be attracted from as far away as 4.7 mm. Many microorganisms sense stimulus gradients along periodic paths to translate a spatial distribution of the stimulus into a temporal pattern of the cell response. Orchestration of temporal sampling, resetting, and adaptation might control gradient sensing in such organisms as well.

Second-Order Sensitivity Analysis of Uncollided Particle Contributions to Radiation Detector Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cacuci, Dan G.; Favorite, Jeffrey A.

This work presents an application of Cacuci’s Second-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2nd-ASAM) to the simplified Boltzmann equation that models the transport of uncollided particles through a medium to compute efficiently and exactly all of the first- and second-order derivatives (sensitivities) of a detector’s response with respect to the system’s isotopic number densities, microscopic cross sections, source emission rates, and detector response function. The off-the-shelf PARTISN multigroup discrete ordinates code is employed to solve the equations underlying the 2nd-ASAM. The accuracy of the results produced using PARTISN is verified by using the results of three test configurations: (1) a homogeneousmore » sphere, for which the response is the exactly known total uncollided leakage, (2) a multiregion two-dimensional (r-z) cylinder, and (3) a two-region sphere for which the response is a reaction rate. For the homogeneous sphere, results for the total leakage as well as for the respective first- and second-order sensitivities are in excellent agreement with the exact benchmark values. For the nonanalytic problems, the results obtained by applying the 2nd-ASAM to compute sensitivities are in excellent agreement with central-difference estimates. The efficiency of the 2nd-ASAM is underscored by the fact that, for the cylinder, only 12 adjoint PARTISN computations were required by the 2nd-ASAM to compute all of the benchmark’s 18 first-order sensitivities and 224 second-order sensitivities, in contrast to the 877 PARTISN calculations needed to compute the respective sensitivities using central finite differences, and this number does not include the additional calculations that were required to find appropriate values of the perturbations to use for the central differences.« less

Second-Order Sensitivity Analysis of Uncollided Particle Contributions to Radiation Detector Responses

DOE PAGES

Cacuci, Dan G.; Favorite, Jeffrey A.

2018-04-06

This work presents an application of Cacuci’s Second-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2nd-ASAM) to the simplified Boltzmann equation that models the transport of uncollided particles through a medium to compute efficiently and exactly all of the first- and second-order derivatives (sensitivities) of a detector’s response with respect to the system’s isotopic number densities, microscopic cross sections, source emission rates, and detector response function. The off-the-shelf PARTISN multigroup discrete ordinates code is employed to solve the equations underlying the 2nd-ASAM. The accuracy of the results produced using PARTISN is verified by using the results of three test configurations: (1) a homogeneousmore » sphere, for which the response is the exactly known total uncollided leakage, (2) a multiregion two-dimensional (r-z) cylinder, and (3) a two-region sphere for which the response is a reaction rate. For the homogeneous sphere, results for the total leakage as well as for the respective first- and second-order sensitivities are in excellent agreement with the exact benchmark values. For the nonanalytic problems, the results obtained by applying the 2nd-ASAM to compute sensitivities are in excellent agreement with central-difference estimates. The efficiency of the 2nd-ASAM is underscored by the fact that, for the cylinder, only 12 adjoint PARTISN computations were required by the 2nd-ASAM to compute all of the benchmark’s 18 first-order sensitivities and 224 second-order sensitivities, in contrast to the 877 PARTISN calculations needed to compute the respective sensitivities using central finite differences, and this number does not include the additional calculations that were required to find appropriate values of the perturbations to use for the central differences.« less

Testing of 100 mK bolometers for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, A. G.; Ade, P. A. R.; Bhatia, R. S.; Griffin, M. J.; Maffei, B.; Nartallo, R.; Beeman, J. W.; Bock, J.; Lange, A.; DelCastillo, H.

1996-01-01

Electrical and optical performance data are presented for a prototype 100 mK spider-web bolometer operating under very low photon backgrounds. These data are compared with the bolometer theory and are used to estimate the expected sensitivity of such a detector used for low background space astronomy. The results demonstrate that the sensitivity and speed of response requirements of the bolometer instruments proposed for these missions can be met by 100 mK spider-web bolometers using neutron transmutation doped germanium as the temperature sensitive element.

Plasma glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D predicts the change in insulin sensitivity in response to a low-fat but not a low-carbohydrate diet in obese women.

PubMed

Gray, Dona L; O'Brien, Kevin D; D'Alessio, David A; Brehm, Bonnie J; Deeg, Mark A

2008-04-01

Although circulating glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D (GPI-PLD), a minor high-density lipoprotein-associated protein, is elevated in patients with insulin resistance or high triglycerides, no information is available on the effect of weight loss or changes in insulin sensitivity on circulating GPI-PLD levels. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of weight loss and changes in insulin sensitivity on plasma GPI-PLD levels. Forty-two nondiabetic obese women were included in the study, which involved a 3-month dietary intervention randomizing patients to a low-fat or a low-carbohydrate diet. The study's main outcome measures were plasma GPI-PLD levels and insulin sensitivity as estimated by the homeostasis model assessment. The very low carbohydrate diet group lost more weight after 3 months (-7.6 +/- 3.2 vs -4.2 +/- 3.5 kg, P < .01), although the decrease in insulin resistance was similar between groups. Weight loss with either diet did not alter plasma GPI-PLD levels. However, baseline GPI-PLD levels correlated with the change in insulin sensitivity in response to the low-fat diet, whereas baseline insulin sensitivity correlated with the change in insulin sensitivity in response to the low-carbohydrate diet. Plasma GPI-PLD may serve as a clinical tool to determine the effect of a low-fat diet on insulin sensitivity.

Patient-reported questionnaires in MS rehabilitation: responsiveness and minimal important difference of the multiple sclerosis questionnaire for physiotherapists (MSQPT).

PubMed

van der Maas, Nico Arie

2017-03-16

The Multiple Sclerosis Questionnaire for Physical Therapists (MSQPT) is a patient-rated outcome questionnaire for evaluating the rehabilitation of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). Responsiveness was evaluated, and minimal important difference (MID) estimates were calculated to provide thresholds for clinical change for four items, three sections and the total score of the MSQPT. This multicentre study used a combined distribution- and anchor-based approach with multiple anchors and multiple rating of change questions. Responsiveness was evaluated using effect size, standardized response mean (SRM), modified SRM and relative efficiency. For distribution-based MID estimates, 0.2 and 0.33 standard deviations (SD), standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change were used . Triangulation of anchor- and distribution-based MID estimates provided a range of MID values for each of the four items, the three sections and the total score of the MSQPT. The MID values were tested for their sensitivity and specificity for amelioration and deterioration for each of the four items, the three sections and the total score of the MSQPT. The MID values of each item and section and of the total score with the best sensitivity and specificity were selected as thresholds for clinical change. The outcome measures were the MSQPT, Hamburg Quality of Life Questionnaire for Multiple Sclerosis (HAQUAMS), rating of change questionnaires, Expanded Disability Status Scale, 6-metre timed walking test, Berg Balance Scale and 6-minute walking test. The effect size ranged from 0.46 to 1.49. The SRM data showed comparable results. The modified SRM ranged from 0.00 to 0.60. Anchor-based MID estimates were very low and were comparable with SD- and SEM-based estimates. The MSQPT was more responsive than the HAQUAMS in detecting improvement but less responsive in finding deterioration. The best MID estimates of the items, sections and total score, expressed in percentage of their maximum score, were between 5.4% (activity) and 22% (item 10) change for improvement and between 5.7% (total score) and 22% (item 10) change for deterioration. The MSQPT is a responsive questionnaire with an adequate MID that may be used as threshold for change during rehabilitation of MS patients. This trial was retrospectively (01/24/2015) registered in ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02346279.

Research priorities for the development and implementation of serological tools for malaria surveillance.

PubMed

Elliott, Salenna R; Fowkes, Freya J I; Richards, Jack S; Reiling, Linda; Drew, Damien R; Beeson, James G

2014-01-01

Surveillance is a key component of control and elimination programs. Malaria surveillance has been typically reliant on case reporting by health services, entomological estimates and parasitemia (Plasmodium species) point prevalence. However, these techniques become less sensitive and relatively costly as transmission declines. There is great potential for the development and application of serological biomarkers of malaria exposure as sero-surveillance tools to strengthen malaria control and elimination. Antibodies to malaria antigens are sensitive biomarkers of population-level malaria exposure and can be used to identify hotspots of malaria transmission, estimate transmission levels, monitor changes over time or the impact of interventions on transmission, confirm malaria elimination, and monitor re-emergence of malaria. Sero-surveillance tools could be used in reference laboratories or developed as simple point-of-care tests for community-based surveillance, and different applications and target populations dictate the technical performance required from assays that are determined by properties of antigens and antibody responses. To advance the development of sero-surveillance tools for malaria elimination, major gaps in our knowledge need to be addressed through further research. These include greater knowledge of potential antigens, the sensitivity and specificity of antibody responses, and the longevity of these responses and defining antigens and antibodies that differentiate between exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Additionally, a better understanding of the influence of host factors, such as age, genetics, and comorbidities on antibody responses in different populations is needed.

Research priorities for the development and implementation of serological tools for malaria surveillance

PubMed Central

Elliott, Salenna R.; Fowkes, Freya J.I.; Richards, Jack S.; Reiling, Linda; Drew, Damien R.

2014-01-01

Surveillance is a key component of control and elimination programs. Malaria surveillance has been typically reliant on case reporting by health services, entomological estimates and parasitemia (Plasmodium species) point prevalence. However, these techniques become less sensitive and relatively costly as transmission declines. There is great potential for the development and application of serological biomarkers of malaria exposure as sero-surveillance tools to strengthen malaria control and elimination. Antibodies to malaria antigens are sensitive biomarkers of population-level malaria exposure and can be used to identify hotspots of malaria transmission, estimate transmission levels, monitor changes over time or the impact of interventions on transmission, confirm malaria elimination, and monitor re-emergence of malaria. Sero-surveillance tools could be used in reference laboratories or developed as simple point-of-care tests for community-based surveillance, and different applications and target populations dictate the technical performance required from assays that are determined by properties of antigens and antibody responses. To advance the development of sero-surveillance tools for malaria elimination, major gaps in our knowledge need to be addressed through further research. These include greater knowledge of potential antigens, the sensitivity and specificity of antibody responses, and the longevity of these responses and defining antigens and antibodies that differentiate between exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Additionally, a better understanding of the influence of host factors, such as age, genetics, and comorbidities on antibody responses in different populations is needed. PMID:25580254

Overcoming pain thresholds with multilevel models-an example using quantitative sensory testing (QST) data.

PubMed

Hirschfeld, Gerrit; Blankenburg, Markus R; Süß, Moritz; Zernikow, Boris

2015-01-01

The assessment of somatosensory function is a cornerstone of research and clinical practice in neurology. Recent initiatives have developed novel protocols for quantitative sensory testing (QST). Application of these methods led to intriguing findings, such as the presence lower pain-thresholds in healthy children compared to healthy adolescents. In this article, we (re-) introduce the basic concepts of signal detection theory (SDT) as a method to investigate such differences in somatosensory function in detail. SDT describes participants' responses according to two parameters, sensitivity and response-bias. Sensitivity refers to individuals' ability to discriminate between painful and non-painful stimulations. Response-bias refers to individuals' criterion for giving a "painful" response. We describe how multilevel models can be used to estimate these parameters and to overcome central critiques of these methods. To provide an example we apply these methods to data from the mechanical pain sensitivity test of the QST protocol. The results show that adolescents are more sensitive to mechanical pain and contradict the idea that younger children simply use more lenient criteria to report pain. Overall, we hope that the wider use of multilevel modeling to describe somatosensory functioning may advance neurology research and practice.

Internal noise sources limiting contrast sensitivity.

PubMed

Silvestre, Daphné; Arleo, Angelo; Allard, Rémy

2018-02-07

Contrast sensitivity varies substantially as a function of spatial frequency and luminance intensity. The variation as a function of luminance intensity is well known and characterized by three laws that can be attributed to the impact of three internal noise sources: early spontaneous neural activity limiting contrast sensitivity at low luminance intensities (i.e. early noise responsible for the linear law), probabilistic photon absorption at intermediate luminance intensities (i.e. photon noise responsible for de Vries-Rose law) and late spontaneous neural activity at high luminance intensities (i.e. late noise responsible for Weber's law). The aim of this study was to characterize how the impact of these three internal noise sources vary with spatial frequency and determine which one is limiting contrast sensitivity as a function of luminance intensity and spatial frequency. To estimate the impact of the different internal noise sources, the current study used an external noise paradigm to factorize contrast sensitivity into equivalent input noise and calculation efficiency over a wide range of luminance intensities and spatial frequencies. The impact of early and late noise was found to drop linearly with spatial frequency, whereas the impact of photon noise rose with spatial frequency due to ocular factors.

Estimation of Time-Varying Pilot Model Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

2011-01-01

Human control behavior is rarely completely stationary over time due to fatigue or loss of attention. In addition, there are many control tasks for which human operators need to adapt their control strategy to vehicle dynamics that vary in time. In previous studies on the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior wavelets were used to estimate the time-varying frequency response functions. However, the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters was not considered. Estimating these parameters can be a valuable tool for the quantification of different aspects of human time-varying manual control. This paper presents two methods for the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters, a two-step method using wavelets and a windowed maximum likelihood estimation method. The methods are evaluated using simulations of a closed-loop control task with time-varying pilot equalization and vehicle dynamics. Simulations are performed with and without remnant. Both methods give accurate results when no pilot remnant is present. The wavelet transform is very sensitive to measurement noise, resulting in inaccurate parameter estimates when considerable pilot remnant is present. Maximum likelihood estimation is less sensitive to pilot remnant, but cannot detect fast changes in pilot control behavior.

Thermal analysis of microlens formation on a sensitized gelatin layer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muric, Branka; Pantelic, Dejan; Vasiljevic, Darko

2009-07-01

We analyze a mechanism of direct laser writing of microlenses. We find that thermal effects and photochemical reactions are responsible for microlens formation on a sensitized gelatin layer. An infrared camera was used to assess the temperature distribution during the microlens formation, while the diffraction pattern produced by the microlens itself was used to estimate optical properties. The study of thermal processes enabled us to establish the correlation between thermal and optical parameters.

Computational tools for fitting the Hill equation to dose-response curves.

PubMed

Gadagkar, Sudhindra R; Call, Gerald B

2015-01-01

Many biological response curves commonly assume a sigmoidal shape that can be approximated well by means of the 4-parameter nonlinear logistic equation, also called the Hill equation. However, estimation of the Hill equation parameters requires access to commercial software or the ability to write computer code. Here we present two user-friendly and freely available computer programs to fit the Hill equation - a Solver-based Microsoft Excel template and a stand-alone GUI-based "point and click" program, called HEPB. Both computer programs use the iterative method to estimate two of the Hill equation parameters (EC50 and the Hill slope), while constraining the values of the other two parameters (the minimum and maximum asymptotes of the response variable) to fit the Hill equation to the data. In addition, HEPB draws the prediction band at a user-defined confidence level, and determines the EC50 value for each of the limits of this band to give boundary values that help objectively delineate sensitive, normal and resistant responses to the drug being tested. Both programs were tested by analyzing twelve datasets that varied widely in data values, sample size and slope, and were found to yield estimates of the Hill equation parameters that were essentially identical to those provided by commercial software such as GraphPad Prism and nls, the statistical package in the programming language R. The Excel template provides a means to estimate the parameters of the Hill equation and plot the regression line in a familiar Microsoft Office environment. HEPB, in addition to providing the above results, also computes the prediction band for the data at a user-defined level of confidence, and determines objective cut-off values to distinguish among response types (sensitive, normal and resistant). Both programs are found to yield estimated values that are essentially the same as those from standard software such as GraphPad Prism and the R-based nls. Furthermore, HEPB also has the option to simulate 500 response values based on the range of values of the dose variable in the original data and the fit of the Hill equation to that data. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dynamical Model of Drug Accumulation in Bacteria: Sensitivity Analysis and Experimentally Testable Predictions

DOE PAGES

Vesselinova, Neda; Alexandrov, Boian; Wall, Michael E.

2016-11-08

We present a dynamical model of drug accumulation in bacteria. The model captures key features in experimental time courses on ofloxacin accumulation: initial uptake; two-phase response; and long-term acclimation. In combination with experimental data, the model provides estimates of import and export rates in each phase, the time of entry into the second phase, and the decrease of internal drug during acclimation. Global sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the model provide information about the robustness of these estimates, and about the relative importance of different parameters in determining the features of the accumulation time coursesmore » in three different bacterial species: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The results lead to experimentally testable predictions of the effects of membrane permeability, drug efflux and trapping (e.g., by DNA binding) on drug accumulation. A key prediction is that a sudden increase in ofloxacin accumulation in both E. coli and S. aureus is accompanied by a decrease in membrane permeability.« less

Dynamical Model of Drug Accumulation in Bacteria: Sensitivity Analysis and Experimentally Testable Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vesselinova, Neda; Alexandrov, Boian; Wall, Michael E.

We present a dynamical model of drug accumulation in bacteria. The model captures key features in experimental time courses on ofloxacin accumulation: initial uptake; two-phase response; and long-term acclimation. In combination with experimental data, the model provides estimates of import and export rates in each phase, the time of entry into the second phase, and the decrease of internal drug during acclimation. Global sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the model provide information about the robustness of these estimates, and about the relative importance of different parameters in determining the features of the accumulation time coursesmore » in three different bacterial species: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The results lead to experimentally testable predictions of the effects of membrane permeability, drug efflux and trapping (e.g., by DNA binding) on drug accumulation. A key prediction is that a sudden increase in ofloxacin accumulation in both E. coli and S. aureus is accompanied by a decrease in membrane permeability.« less

Sensitivity of the reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables during the growing season in the Ejina oasis northwest China.

PubMed

Hou, Lan-Gong; Zou, Song-Bing; Xiao, Hong-Lang; Yang, Yong-Gang

2013-01-01

The standardized FAO56 Penman-Monteith model, which has been the most reasonable method in both humid and arid climatic conditions, provides reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimates for planning and efficient use of agricultural water resources. And sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation of reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ETo to perturbations of four climatic variables in the Ejina oasis northwest China. A 20-year historical dataset of daily air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and daily sunshine duration in the Ejina oasis was used in the analysis. Results have shown that daily sensitivity coefficients exhibited large fluctuations during the growing season, and shortwave radiation was the most sensitive variable in general for the Ejina oasis, followed by air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. According to this study, the response of ETo can be preferably predicted under perturbation of air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and shortwave radiation by their sensitivity coefficients.

Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, Julie A.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2015-04-01

Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation will result in fundamental changes in the seasonal distribution of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and will have serious implications for water resources management. To better understand local impacts of regional climate change, we conducted model experiments to determine hydrologic sensitivities of annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff to imposed annual and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface hydrology model applied at 1/16° latitude-longitude spatial resolution over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a scale sufficient to support analyses at the hydrologic unit code eight (HUC-8) basin level. These experiments resolve the spatial character of the sensitivity of future water supply to precipitation and temperature changes by identifying the seasons and locations where climate change will have the biggest impact on runoff. The PNW exhibited a diversity of responses, where transitional (intermediate elevation) watersheds experience the greatest seasonal shifts in runoff in response to cool season warming. We also developed a methodology that uses these hydrologic sensitivities as basin-specific transfer functions to estimate future changes in long-term mean monthly hydrographs directly from climate model output of precipitation and temperature. When principles of linearity and superposition apply, these transfer functions can provide feasible first-order estimates of the likely nature of future seasonal streamflow change without performing downscaling and detailed model simulations.

Covariance of dynamic strain responses for structural damage detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X. Y.; Wang, L. X.; Law, S. S.; Nie, Z. H.

2017-10-01

A new approach to address the practical problems with condition evaluation/damage detection of structures is proposed based on the distinct features of a new damage index. The covariance of strain response function (CoS) is a function of modal parameters of the structure. A local stiffness reduction in structure would cause monotonous increase in the CoS. Its sensitivity matrix with respect to local damages of structure is negative and narrow-banded. The damage extent can be estimated with an approximation to the sensitivity matrix to decouple the identification equations. The CoS sensitivity can be calibrated in practice from two previous states of measurements to estimate approximately the damage extent of a structure. A seven-storey plane frame structure is numerically studied to illustrate the features of the CoS index and the proposed method. A steel circular arch in the laboratory is tested. Natural frequencies changed due to damage in the arch and the damage occurrence can be judged. However, the proposed CoS method can identify not only damage happening but also location, even damage extent without need of an analytical model. It is promising for structural condition evaluation of selected components.

Model-based exposure-response analysis to quantify age related differences in the response to scopolamine in healthy subjects.

PubMed

Alvarez-Jimenez, Ricardo; Groeneveld, Geert Jan; van Gerven, Joop M A; Goulooze, Sebastiaan C; Baakman, Anne Catrien; Hay, Justin L; Stevens, Jasper

2016-10-01

Subjects with increasing age are more sensitive to the effects of the anti-muscarinic agent scopolamine, which is used (among other indications) to induce temporary cognitive dysfunction in early phase drug studies with cognition enhancing compounds. The enhanced sensitivity has always been attributed to incipient cholinergic neuronal dysfunction, as a part of the normal aging process. The aim of the study was to correlate age-dependent pharmacodynamic neuro-physiologic effects of scopolamine after correcting for differences in individual exposure. We applied a pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modelling approach to describe individual exposure and neurocognitive effects of intravenous scopolamine administration in healthy subjects. A two-compartment linear kinetics model best described the plasma concentrations of scopolamine. The estimated scopolamine population mean apparent central and peripheral volume of distribution was 2.66 ± 1.050 l and 62.10 ± 10.100 l, respectively and the clearance was 1.09 ± 0.096 l min(-1) . Age was not related to a decrease of performance in the tests following scopolamine administration in older subjects. Only the saccadic peak velocity showed a positive correlation between age and sensitivity to scopolamine. Age was, however, correlated at baseline with an estimated slower reaction time while performing the cognitive tests and to higher global δ and frontal θ frequency bands measured with the surface EEG. Most of the differences in response to scopolamine administration between young and older subjects could be explained by pharmacokinetic differences (lower clearance) and not to an enhanced sensitivity when corrected for exposure levels. © 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.

Model‐based exposure‐response analysis to quantify age related differences in the response to scopolamine in healthy subjects

PubMed Central

Groeneveld, Geert Jan; van Gerven, Joop M. A.; Goulooze, Sebastiaan C.; Baakman, Anne Catrien; Hay, Justin L.; Stevens, Jasper

2016-01-01

Aim Subjects with increasing age are more sensitive to the effects of the anti‐muscarinic agent scopolamine, which is used (among other indications) to induce temporary cognitive dysfunction in early phase drug studies with cognition enhancing compounds. The enhanced sensitivity has always been attributed to incipient cholinergic neuronal dysfunction, as a part of the normal aging process. The aim of the study was to correlate age‐dependent pharmacodynamic neuro‐physiologic effects of scopolamine after correcting for differences in individual exposure. Methods We applied a pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modelling approach to describe individual exposure and neurocognitive effects of intravenous scopolamine administration in healthy subjects. Results A two‐compartment linear kinetics model best described the plasma concentrations of scopolamine. The estimated scopolamine population mean apparent central and peripheral volume of distribution was 2.66 ± 1.050 l and 62.10 ± 10.100 l, respectively and the clearance was 1.09 ± 0.096 l min−1. Age was not related to a decrease of performance in the tests following scopolamine administration in older subjects. Only the saccadic peak velocity showed a positive correlation between age and sensitivity to scopolamine. Age was, however, correlated at baseline with an estimated slower reaction time while performing the cognitive tests and to higher global δ and frontal θ frequency bands measured with the surface EEG. Conclusions Most of the differences in response to scopolamine administration between young and older subjects could be explained by pharmacokinetic differences (lower clearance) and not to an enhanced sensitivity when corrected for exposure levels. PMID:27273555

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Intraspecific Variation and Thermotolerance Classification Using in Vitro Seed Germination Assay

DOE PAGES

Seepaul, Ramdeo; Macoon, Bisoondat; Reddy, K. Raja; ...

2011-01-01

Cardinal temperatures for plant processes have been used for thermotolerance screening of genotypes, geoclimatic adaptability determination and phenological prediction. Current simulation models for switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) utilize single cardinal temperatures across genotypes for both vegetative and reproductive processes although in-tra-specific variation exists among genotypes. An experiment was conducted to estimate the cardinal temperatures for seed germination of 14 diverse switchgrass genotypes and to classify genotypes for temperature tolerance. Stratified seeds of each genotype were germinated at eight constant temperatures from 10 °C to 45 °C under a constant light intensity of 35 μmol m -2s -1 for 12 hdmore » -1. Germination was recorded at 6-h intervals in all treatments. Maximum seed germination (MSG) and germination rate (GR), estimated by fitting Sigmoidal function to germination-time series data, varied among genotypes. Quadratic and bilinear models best described the MSG and GR responses to temperature, respectively. The mean cardinal temperatures, T min, T opt, and T max, were 8.1, 26.6, and 45.1 °C for MSG and 11.1, 33.1, and 46.0 °C for GR, respectively. Cardinal temperatures for MSG and GR; however, varied significantly among genotypes. Genotypes were classified as sensitive (Cave-in-Rock, Dacotah, Expresso, Forestburg, Kanlow, Sunburst, Trailblazer, and Tusca), intermediate (Alamo, Blackwell, Carthage, Shawnee, and Shelter) and tolerant (Summer) to high temperature based on cumulative temperature response index (CTRI) estimated by summing individual response indices estimated from the MSG and GR cardinal temperatures. Similarly, genotypes were also classified as sensitive (Alamo, Blackwell, Carthage, Dacotah, Shawnee, Shelter and Summer), moderately sensitive (Cave-in-rock, Forestburg, Kanlow, Sunburst, and Tusca), moderately tolerant (Trailblazer), and tolerant (Expresso) to low temperatures. The cardinal temperature estimates would be useful to improve switchgrass models for field applications. Additionally, the identified cold- and heat-tolerant genotypes can be selected for niche environments and in switchgrass breeding programs to develop new genotypes for low and high temperature environments.« less

Use of an improved radiation amplification factor to estimate the effect of total ozone changes on action spectrum weighted irradiances and an instrument response function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jay R.

2010-12-01

Multiple scattering radiative transfer results are used to calculate action spectrum weighted irradiances and fractional irradiance changes in terms of a power law in ozone Ω, U(Ω/200)-RAF, where the new radiation amplification factor (RAF) is just a function of solar zenith angle. Including Rayleigh scattering caused small differences in the estimated 30 year changes in action spectrum-weighted irradiances compared to estimates that neglect multiple scattering. The radiative transfer results are applied to several action spectra and to an instrument response function corresponding to the Solar Light 501 meter. The effect of changing ozone on two plant damage action spectra are shown for plants with high sensitivity to UVB (280-315 nm) and those with lower sensitivity, showing that the probability for plant damage for the latter has increased since 1979, especially at middle to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Similarly, there has been an increase in rates of erythemal skin damage and pre-vitamin D3 production corresponding to measured ozone decreases. An example conversion function is derived to obtain erythemal irradiances and the UV index from measurements with the Solar Light 501 instrument response function. An analytic expressions is given to convert changes in erythemal irradiances to changes in CIE vitamin-D action spectrum weighted irradiances.

Use of an Improved Radiation Amplification Factor to Estimate the Effect of Total Ozone Changes on Action Spectrum Weighted Irradiances and an Instrument Response Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Jay R.

2010-01-01

Multiple scattering radiative transfer results are used to calculate action spectrum weighted irradiances and fractional irradiance changes in terms of a power law in ozone OMEGA, U(OMEGA/200)(sup -RAF), where the new radiation amplification factor (RAF) is just a function of solar zenith angle. Including Rayleigh scattering caused small differences in the estimated 30 year changes in action spectrum-weighted irradiances compared to estimates that neglect multiple scattering. The radiative transfer results are applied to several action spectra and to an instrument response function corresponding to the Solar Light 501 meter. The effect of changing ozone on two plant damage action spectra are shown for plants with high sensitivity to UVB (280-315 run) and those with lower sensitivity, showing that the probability for plant damage for the latter has increased since 1979, especially at middle to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Similarly, there has been an increase in rates of erythemal skin damage and pre-vitamin D3 production corresponding to measured ozone decreases. An example conversion function is derived to obtain erythemal irradiances and the UV index from measurements with the Solar Light 501 instrument response function. An analytic expressions is given to convert changes in erythemal irradiances to changes in CIE vitamin-D action spectrum weighted irradiances.

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D.

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, wemore » point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D.

2016-04-08

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, wemore » point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity.

PubMed

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D

2016-04-08

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. We point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Perceptual learning modifies untrained pursuit eye movements.

PubMed

Szpiro, Sarit F A; Spering, Miriam; Carrasco, Marisa

2014-07-07

Perceptual learning improves detection and discrimination of relevant visual information in mature humans, revealing sensory plasticity. Whether visual perceptual learning affects motor responses is unknown. Here we implemented a protocol that enabled us to address this question. We tested a perceptual response (motion direction estimation, in which observers overestimate motion direction away from a reference) and a motor response (voluntary smooth pursuit eye movements). Perceptual training led to greater overestimation and, remarkably, it modified untrained smooth pursuit. In contrast, pursuit training did not affect overestimation in either pursuit or perception, even though observers in both training groups were exposed to the same stimuli for the same time period. A second experiment revealed that estimation training also improved discrimination, indicating that overestimation may optimize perceptual sensitivity. Hence, active perceptual training is necessary to alter perceptual responses, and an acquired change in perception suffices to modify pursuit, a motor response. © 2014 ARVO.

Perceptual learning modifies untrained pursuit eye movements

PubMed Central

Szpiro, Sarit F. A.; Spering, Miriam; Carrasco, Marisa

2014-01-01

Perceptual learning improves detection and discrimination of relevant visual information in mature humans, revealing sensory plasticity. Whether visual perceptual learning affects motor responses is unknown. Here we implemented a protocol that enabled us to address this question. We tested a perceptual response (motion direction estimation, in which observers overestimate motion direction away from a reference) and a motor response (voluntary smooth pursuit eye movements). Perceptual training led to greater overestimation and, remarkably, it modified untrained smooth pursuit. In contrast, pursuit training did not affect overestimation in either pursuit or perception, even though observers in both training groups were exposed to the same stimuli for the same time period. A second experiment revealed that estimation training also improved discrimination, indicating that overestimation may optimize perceptual sensitivity. Hence, active perceptual training is necessary to alter perceptual responses, and an acquired change in perception suffices to modify pursuit, a motor response. PMID:25002412

Ultrasound imparted air-recoil resonance (UIAR) method for acoustic power estimation: theory and experiment.

PubMed

Kaiplavil, Sreekumar; Rivens, Ian; ter Haar, Gail

2013-07-01

Ultrasound imparted air-recoil resonance (UIAR), a new method for acoustic power estimation, is introduced with emphasis on therapeutic high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) monitoring applications. Advantages of this approach over existing practices include fast response; electrical and magnetic inertness, and hence MRI compatibility; portability; high damage threshold and immunity to vibration and interference; low cost; etc. The angle of incidence should be fixed for accurate measurement. However, the transducer-detector pair can be aligned in any direction with respect to the force of gravity. In this sense, the operation of the device is orientation independent. The acoustic response of a pneumatically coupled pair of Helmholtz resonators, with one of them acting as the sensor head, is used for the estimation of acoustic power. The principle is valid in the case of pulsed/ burst as well as continuous ultrasound exposure, the former being more sensitive and accurate. An electro-acoustic theory has been developed for describing the dynamics of pressure flow and resonance in the system considering various thermo- viscous loss mechanisms. Experimental observations are found to be in agreement with theoretical results. Assuming the window damage threshold (~10 J·mm(-2)) and accuracy of RF power estimation are the upper and lower scale-limiting factors, the performance of the device was examined for an RF power range of 5 mW to 100 W with a HIFU transducer operating at 1.70 MHz, and an average nonlinearity of ~1.5% was observed. The device is also sensitive to sub-milliwatt powers. The frequency response was analyzed at 0.85, 1.70, 2.55, and 3.40 MHz and the results are presented with respective theoretical estimates. Typical response time is in the millisecond regime. Output drift is about 3% for resonant and 5% for nonresonant modes. The principle has been optimized to demonstrate a general-purpose acoustic power meter.

Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

2013-12-01

We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

Estimation of beam material random field properties via sensitivity-based model updating using experimental frequency response functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, M. R.; Adhikari, S.; Dos Santos, J. M. C.; Arruda, J. R. F.

2018-03-01

Structural parameter estimation is affected not only by measurement noise but also by unknown uncertainties which are present in the system. Deterministic structural model updating methods minimise the difference between experimentally measured data and computational prediction. Sensitivity-based methods are very efficient in solving structural model updating problems. Material and geometrical parameters of the structure such as Poisson's ratio, Young's modulus, mass density, modal damping, etc. are usually considered deterministic and homogeneous. In this paper, the distributed and non-homogeneous characteristics of these parameters are considered in the model updating. The parameters are taken as spatially correlated random fields and are expanded in a spectral Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition. Using the KL expansion, the spectral dynamic stiffness matrix of the beam is expanded as a series in terms of discretized parameters, which can be estimated using sensitivity-based model updating techniques. Numerical and experimental tests involving a beam with distributed bending rigidity and mass density are used to verify the proposed method. This extension of standard model updating procedures can enhance the dynamic description of structural dynamic models.

An inexpensive light-scattering particle monitor: field validation

PubMed Central

Edwards, Rufus D.; Johnson, Michael; Shields, Kyra Naumoff; Allen, Tracy; Canuz, Eduardo; Smith, Kirk R.

2014-01-01

We have developed a small, light, passive, inexpensive, datalogging particle monitor called the “UCB” (University of California Berkeley particle monitor). Following previously published laboratory assessments, we present here results of tests of its performance in field settings at high particle concentrations. We demonstrate the mass sensitivity of the UCB in relation to gravimetric filter-based PM2.5 mass estimates as well as commercial light-scattering instruments co-located in field chamber tests and in kitchens of wood-burning households. The coefficient of variation of the unadjusted UCB mass response in relation to gravimetric estimates was 15%. Although requiring adjustment for differences in sensitivity, inter-monitor performance was consistently high (r2 > 0.99). Moreover, the UCB can consistently estimate PM2.5 mass concentrations in wood-burning kitchens (Pearson r2 = 0.89; N = 99), with good agreement between duplicate measures (Pearson r2 = 0.94; N = 88). In addition, with appropriate cleaning of the sensing chamber, UCB mass sensitivity does not decrease with time when used intensively in open woodfire kitchens, demonstrating the significant potential of this monitor. PMID:17909644

Differential Sensitivity to Drought in Central U.S. Grasslands Arrayed Along an Aridity Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Alan; Collins, Scott; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Melinda

2015-04-01

Responses to drought often vary dramatically among terrestrial ecosystems, but the reasons why are unclear. With climate change forecasts for more frequent, severe and extensive drought in the future, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine differential ecosystem sensitivity to drought is needed. In 2012, the Central U.S. experienced the 4th largest drought in a century, with a regional-scale 40% reduction in growing season precipitation affecting ecosystems ranging from desert grassland to mesic tallgrass prairie. This provided an opportunity to assess ecosystem sensitivity to a natural drought of common magnitude in six native grasslands. We tested the prediction that drought sensitivity would be inversely related to mean annual precipitation (MAP) by quantifying reductions in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Long-term ANPP data available for each site (mean length = 16 yrs) were used as a baseline for calculating reductions in ANPP, and drought sensitivity was estimated as the reduction in ANPP per mm reduction in precipitation. Arid grasslands were the most sensitive to drought, but drought responses and sensitivity varied by more than 2-fold among the six grasslands, despite all sites experiencing similar relative reductions in growing season precipitation. Although drought sensitivity generally decreased with increasing MAP as predicted, there was evidence that the identity and traits of the dominant species, as well as plant functional diversity, influenced sensitivity. Results from this natural drought will be compared with responses to an experimentally imposed drought to determine if patterns of sensitivity are consistent between experimental and observational approaches.

Bismuth molybdate thick films as ethanol sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Kiran; Kumar, Vipin; Gupta, H. P.; Rastogi, A. C.

2003-10-01

Ethanol sensitivity of bismuth molybdate thick films and sintered pellets were investigated. Sintered pellets were prepared by traditional ceramic processing. Thick films were prepared by metallorganic decomposition process. Ethanol gas sensitivity was measured at various temperatures and concentrations. Thick films of alpha phase bismuth molybdate prepared by spray pyrolysis showed a very fast response to ethanol detection. The response time for the bulk samples is about 40 sec which decreased to about 6 sec for thick films at an operating temperature of 300°C. An extremely low level approximately 10 ppm detection and fast response makes this technique ideal for sensor element fabrication for detection and estimation of alcohol in breath-analyzer. Unlike SnO2, the resistance of these sensors is not affected by humidity at the operating temperature.

Monaural and binaural response properties of neurons in the inferior colliculus of the rabbit: effects of sodium pentobarbital.

PubMed

Kuwada, S; Batra, R; Stanford, T R

1989-02-01

1. We studied the effects of sodium pentobarbital on 22 neurons in the inferior colliculus (IC) of the rabbit. We recorded changes in the sensitivity of these neurons to monaural stimulation and to ongoing interaural time differences (ITDs). Monaural stimuli were tone bursts at or near the neuron's best frequency. The ITD was varied by delivering tones that differed by 1 Hz to the two ears, resulting in a 1-Hz binaural beat. 2. We assessed a neuron's ITD sensitivity by calculating three measures from the responses to binaural beats: composite delay, characteristic delay (CD), and characteristic phase (CP). To obtain the composite delay, we first derived period histograms by averaging, showing the response at each stimulating frequency over one period of the beat frequency. Second, the period histograms were replotted as a function of their equivalent interaural delay and then averaged together to yield the composite delay curve. Last, we calculated the composite peak or trough delay by fitting a parabola to the peak or trough of this composite curve. The composite delay curve represents the average response to all frequencies within the neuron's responsive range, and the peak reflects the interaural delay that produces the maximum response. The CD and CP were estimated from a weighted fit of a regression line to the plot of the mean interaural phase of the response versus the stimulating frequency. The slope and phase intercept of this regression line yielded estimates of CD and CP, respectively. These two quantities are thought to reflect the mechanism of ITD sensitivity, which involves the convergence of phase-locked inputs on a binaural cell. The CD estimates the difference in the time required for the two inputs to travel from either ear to this cell, whereas the CP reflects the interaural phase difference of the inputs at this cell. 3. Injections of sodium pentobarbital at subsurgical dosages (less than 25 mg/kg) almost invariably altered the neuron's response rate, response latency, response pattern, and spontaneous activity. Most of these changes were predictable and consistent with an enhancement of inhibitory influences. For example, if the earliest response was inhibitory, later excitation was usually reduced and latency increased. If the earliest response was excitatory, the level of this excitation was unaltered or slightly enhanced, and changes in latency were minimal. 4. The neuron's response pattern also changed in a predictable way. For example, a response with an inhibitory pause could either change to a response with a longer pause or to a response with an onset only.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Ultraviolet response of film candidates for the solar optical telescope photometric filtergraph

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, J. A.

1983-01-01

Measurements of UV response between 2000 and 3000 A of Kodak films 2415, Aerocon II 3412, and SO-415 are reported. The short wavelength cutoff of the response of all films studied lies near 2100 A, occurring as a gentle falloff starting near 2500 A. The sensitivity of the films appears to remain roughly constant from 2500 to 3000 A. Estimates of UV Gamma for 2415 and the effect of hard UV on the optics in the experiment are also discussed.

Modeling and predicting community responses to events using cultural demographics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Hicklen, Michael L.

2007-04-01

This paper describes a novel capability for modeling and predicting community responses to events (specifically military operations) related to demographics. Demographics in the form of words and/or numbers are used. As an example, State of Alabama annual demographic data for retail sales, auto registration, wholesale trade, shopping goods, and population were used; from which we determined a ranked estimate of the sensitivity of the demographic parameters on the cultural group response. Our algorithm and results are summarized in this paper.

Preparation of chitosan grafted graphite composite for sensitive detection of dopamine in biological samples.

PubMed

Palanisamy, Selvakumar; Thangavelu, Kokulnathan; Chen, Shen-Ming; Gnanaprakasam, P; Velusamy, Vijayalakshmi; Liu, Xiao-Heng

2016-10-20

The accurate detection of dopamine (DA) levels in biological samples such as human serum and urine are essential indicators in medical diagnostics. In this work, we describe the preparation of chitosan (CS) biopolymer grafted graphite (GR) composite for the sensitive and lower potential detection of DA in its sub micromolar levels. The composite modified electrode has been used for the detection of DA in biological samples such as human serum and urine. The GR-CS composite modified electrode shows an enhanced oxidation peak current response and low oxidation potential for the detection of DA than that of electrodes modified with bare, GR and CS discretely. Under optimum conditions, the fabricated GR-CS composite modified electrode shows the DPV response of DA in the linear response ranging from 0.03 to 20.06μM. The detection limit and sensitivity of the sensor were estimated as 0.0045μM and 6.06μA μM(-1)cm(-2), respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity to Peer Evaluation and Its Genetic and Environmental Determinants: Findings from a Population-Based Twin Study.

PubMed

Klippel, Annelie; Reininghaus, Ulrich; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Decoster, Jeroen; Delespaul, Philippe; Derom, Cathérine; de Hert, Marc; Jacobs, Nele; Menne-Lothmann, Claudia; Rutten, Bart; Thiery, Evert; van Os, Jim; van Winkel, Ruud; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Wichers, Marieke

2018-02-23

Adolescents and young adults are highly focused on peer evaluation, but little is known about sources of their differential sensitivity. We examined to what extent sensitivity to peer evaluation is influenced by interacting environmental and genetic factors. A sample of 354 healthy adolescent twin pairs (n = 708) took part in a structured, laboratory task in which they were exposed to peer evaluation. The proportion of the variance in sensitivity to peer evaluation due to genetic and environmental factors was estimated, as was the association with specific a priori environmental risk factors. Differences in sensitivity to peer evaluation between adolescents were explained mainly by non-shared environmental influences. The results on shared environmental influences were not conclusive. No impact of latent genetic factors or gene-environment interactions was found. Adolescents with lower self-rated positions on the social ladder or who reported to have been bullied more severely showed significantly stronger responses to peer evaluation. Not genes, but subjective social status and past experience of being bullied seem to impact sensitivity to peer evaluation. This suggests that altered response to peer evaluation is the outcome of cumulative sensitization to social interactions.

Plasma glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D predicts the change in insulin sensitivity in response to a low fat but not a low carbohydrate diet in obese women

PubMed Central

Gray, Dona L.; O’Brien, Kevin D.; D’Alessio, David A.; Brehm, Bonnie J.; Deeg, Mark A.

2013-01-01

Context Although circulating glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D, a minor high density lipoprotein-associated protein, is elevated in patients with insulin resistance or high triglycerides, no information is available on the effect of weight loss or changes in insulin sensitivity on circulating glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D levels. Objective Determine the effect of weight loss and changes in insulin sensitivity on plasma glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D levels. Participants Forty two non-diabetic obese women. Intervention Three month dietary intervention randomizing patients to a low fat or a low carbohydrate diet. Main outcome measures Plasma glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D levels and insulin sensitivity as estimated by the homeostasis model assessment. Results The very low carbohydrate diet group lost more weight after 3 months (−7.6 ± 3.2 vs. −4.2 ± 3.5 kg, P < 0.01) although the decrease in insulin resistance was similar between groups. Weight loss with either diet did not alter plasma glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D levels. However, baseline glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D levels correlated with the change in insulin sensitivity in response to the low fat diet while baseline insulin sensitivity correlated the change in insulin sensitivity in response to the low carbohydrate diet. Conclusions Plasma GPI-PLD may serve as a clinical tool to determine the effect of a low fat diet on insulin sensitivity. PMID:18328347

Rank-preserving regression: a more robust rank regression model against outliers.

PubMed

Chen, Tian; Kowalski, Jeanne; Chen, Rui; Wu, Pan; Zhang, Hui; Feng, Changyong; Tu, Xin M

2016-08-30

Mean-based semi-parametric regression models such as the popular generalized estimating equations are widely used to improve robustness of inference over parametric models. Unfortunately, such models are quite sensitive to outlying observations. The Wilcoxon-score-based rank regression (RR) provides more robust estimates over generalized estimating equations against outliers. However, the RR and its extensions do not sufficiently address missing data arising in longitudinal studies. In this paper, we propose a new approach to address outliers under a different framework based on the functional response models. This functional-response-model-based alternative not only addresses limitations of the RR and its extensions for longitudinal data, but, with its rank-preserving property, even provides more robust estimates than these alternatives. The proposed approach is illustrated with both real and simulated data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey interaction model and parameter identifiability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Meghwani, Suraj S.; Thakur, Manoj; Abbas, Syed

2018-01-01

In this work, bifurcation and a systematic approach for estimation of identifiable parameters of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin functional response and prey refuge is discussed. Global asymptotic stability is discussed by applying fluctuation lemma. The system undergoes into Hopf bifurcation with respect to parameters intrinsic growth rate of predators (s) and prey reserve (m). The stability of Hopf bifurcation is also discussed by calculating Lyapunov number. The sensitivity analysis of the considered model system with respect to all variables is performed which also supports our theoretical study. To estimate the unknown parameter from the data, an optimization procedure (pseudo-random search algorithm) is adopted. System responses and phase plots for estimated parameters are also compared with true noise free data. It is found that the system dynamics with true set of parametric values is similar to the estimated parametric values. Numerical simulations are presented to substantiate the analytical findings.

Estimating Parameters in the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model: Sensitivity to the Prior Distribution Assumption and the Number of Quadrature Points Used.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Donoghue, John R.; Laughlin, James E.

The generalized graded unfolding model (J. Roberts, J. Donoghue, and J. Laughlin, 1998, 1999) is an item response theory model designed to unfold polytomous responses. The model is based on a proximity relation that postulates higher levels of expected agreement with a given statement to the extent that a respondent is located close to the…

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk.

PubMed

Canfield, Casey Inez; Fischhoff, Baruch

2018-04-01

Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system-level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improved recovery of the hemodynamic response in Diffuse Optical Imaging using short optode separations and state-space modeling

PubMed Central

Gagnon, Louis; Perdue, Katherine; Greve, Douglas N.; Goldenholz, Daniel; Kaskhedikar, Gayatri; Boas, David A.

2011-01-01

Diffuse Optical Imaging (DOI) allows the recovery of the hemodynamic response associated with evoked brain activity. The signal is contaminated with systemic physiological interference which occurs in the superficial layers of the head as well as in the brain tissue. The back-reflection geometry of the measurement makes the DOI signal strongly contaminated by systemic interference occurring in the superficial layers. A recent development has been the use of signals from small source-detector separation (1 cm) optodes as regressors. Since those additional measurements are mainly sensitive to superficial layers in adult humans, they help in removing the systemic interference present in longer separation measurements (3 cm). Encouraged by those findings, we developed a dynamic estimation procedure to remove global interference using small optode separations and to estimate simultaneously the hemodynamic response. The algorithm was tested by recovering a simulated synthetic hemodynamic response added over baseline DOI data acquired from 6 human subjects at rest. The performance of the algorithm was quantified by the Pearson R2 coefficient and the mean square error (MSE) between the recovered and the simulated hemodynamic responses. Our dynamic estimator was also compared with a static estimator and the traditional adaptive filtering method. We observed a significant improvement (two-tailed paired t-test, p < 0.05) in both HbO and HbR recovery using our Kalman filter dynamic estimator compared to the traditional adaptive filter, the static estimator and the standard GLM technique. PMID:21385616

CXTFIT/Excel A modular adaptable code for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for laboratory or field tracer experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Guoping; Mayes, Melanie; Parker, Jack C

2010-01-01

We implemented the widely used CXTFIT code in Excel to provide flexibility and added sensitivity and uncertainty analysis functions to improve transport parameter estimation and to facilitate model discrimination for multi-tracer experiments on structured soils. Analytical solutions for one-dimensional equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection dispersion equations were coded as VBA functions so that they could be used as ordinary math functions in Excel for forward predictions. Macros with user-friendly interfaces were developed for optimization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, error propagation, response surface calculation, and Monte Carlo analysis. As a result, any parameter with transformations (e.g., dimensionless, log-transformed, species-dependent reactions, etc.) couldmore » be estimated with uncertainty and sensitivity quantification for multiple tracer data at multiple locations and times. Prior information and observation errors could be incorporated into the weighted nonlinear least squares method with a penalty function. Users are able to change selected parameter values and view the results via embedded graphics, resulting in a flexible tool applicable to modeling transport processes and to teaching students about parameter estimation. The code was verified by comparing to a number of benchmarks with CXTFIT 2.0. It was applied to improve parameter estimation for four typical tracer experiment data sets in the literature using multi-model evaluation and comparison. Additional examples were included to illustrate the flexibilities and advantages of CXTFIT/Excel. The VBA macros were designed for general purpose and could be used for any parameter estimation/model calibration when the forward solution is implemented in Excel. A step-by-step tutorial, example Excel files and the code are provided as supplemental material.« less

Applying cognitive acuity theory to the development and scoring of situational judgment tests.

PubMed

Leeds, J Peter

2017-11-09

The theory of cognitive acuity (TCA) treats the response options within items as signals to be detected and uses psychophysical methods to estimate the respondents' sensitivity to these signals. Such a framework offers new methods to construct and score situational judgment tests (SJT). Leeds (2012) defined cognitive acuity as the capacity to discern correctness and distinguish between correctness differences among simultaneously presented situation-specific response options. In this study, SJT response options were paired in order to offer the respondent a two-option choice. The contrast in correctness valence between the two options determined the magnitude of signal emission, with larger signals portending a higher probability of detection. A logarithmic relation was found between correctness valence contrast (signal stimulus) and its detectability (sensation response). Respondent sensitivity to such signals was measured and found to be related to the criterion variables. The linkage between psychophysics and elemental psychometrics may offer new directions for measurement theory.

Design optimization of condenser microphone: a design of experiment perspective.

PubMed

Tan, Chee Wee; Miao, Jianmin

2009-06-01

A well-designed condenser microphone backplate is very important in the attainment of good frequency response characteristics--high sensitivity and wide bandwidth with flat response--and low mechanical-thermal noise. To study the design optimization of the backplate, a 2(6) factorial design with a single replicate, which consists of six backplate parameters and four responses, has been undertaken on a comprehensive condenser microphone model developed by Zuckerwar. Through the elimination of insignificant parameters via normal probability plots of the effect estimates, the projection of an unreplicated factorial design into a replicated one can be performed to carry out an analysis of variance on the factorial design. The air gap and slot have significant effects on the sensitivity, mechanical-thermal noise, and bandwidth while the slot/hole location interaction has major influence over the latter two responses. An organized and systematic approach of designing the backplate is summarized.

Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fiore, A M; Dentener, F J; Wild, O

2008-10-16

Understanding the surface O{sub 3} response over a 'receptor' region to emission changes over a foreign 'source' region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O{sub 3}) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O{sub 3} response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O{sub 3} precursors, NO{sub x}, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surfacemore » O{sub 3} concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern U.S. and Japan. The sum of the O{sub 3} responses to NO{sub x}, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale 'import sensitivity' as the ratio of the O{sub 3} response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus 'domestic' (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the 3 foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the 3 foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O{sub 3} values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O{sub 3} levels are typically highest, and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-hour average O{sub 3} above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10-20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O{sub 3} of about 0.1 ppb yr{sup -1}, at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb yr{sup -1} derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O{sub 3} response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NO{sub x}, NMVOC and CO emissions from the foreign source region.« less

Estimating the magnitude of near-membrane PDE4 activity in living cells.

PubMed

Xin, Wenkuan; Feinstein, Wei P; Britain, Andrea L; Ochoa, Cristhiaan D; Zhu, Bing; Richter, Wito; Leavesley, Silas J; Rich, Thomas C

2015-09-15

Recent studies have demonstrated that functionally discrete pools of phosphodiesterase (PDE) activity regulate distinct cellular functions. While the importance of localized pools of enzyme activity has become apparent, few studies have estimated enzyme activity within discrete subcellular compartments. Here we present an approach to estimate near-membrane PDE activity. First, total PDE activity is measured using traditional PDE activity assays. Second, known cAMP concentrations are dialyzed into single cells and the spatial spread of cAMP is monitored using cyclic nucleotide-gated channels. Third, mathematical models are used to estimate the spatial distribution of PDE activity within cells. Using this three-tiered approach, we observed two pharmacologically distinct pools of PDE activity, a rolipram-sensitive pool and an 8-methoxymethyl IBMX (8MM-IBMX)-sensitive pool. We observed that the rolipram-sensitive PDE (PDE4) was primarily responsible for cAMP hydrolysis near the plasma membrane. Finally, we observed that PDE4 was capable of blunting cAMP levels near the plasma membrane even when 100 μM cAMP were introduced into the cell via a patch pipette. Two compartment models predict that PDE activity near the plasma membrane, near cyclic nucleotide-gated channels, was significantly lower than total cellular PDE activity and that a slow spatial spread of cAMP allowed PDE activity to effectively hydrolyze near-membrane cAMP. These results imply that cAMP levels near the plasma membrane are distinct from those in other subcellular compartments; PDE activity is not uniform within cells; and localized pools of AC and PDE activities are responsible for controlling cAMP levels within distinct subcellular compartments. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Estimating the magnitude of near-membrane PDE4 activity in living cells

PubMed Central

Xin, Wenkuan; Feinstein, Wei P.; Britain, Andrea L.; Ochoa, Cristhiaan D.; Zhu, Bing; Richter, Wito; Leavesley, Silas J.

2015-01-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that functionally discrete pools of phosphodiesterase (PDE) activity regulate distinct cellular functions. While the importance of localized pools of enzyme activity has become apparent, few studies have estimated enzyme activity within discrete subcellular compartments. Here we present an approach to estimate near-membrane PDE activity. First, total PDE activity is measured using traditional PDE activity assays. Second, known cAMP concentrations are dialyzed into single cells and the spatial spread of cAMP is monitored using cyclic nucleotide-gated channels. Third, mathematical models are used to estimate the spatial distribution of PDE activity within cells. Using this three-tiered approach, we observed two pharmacologically distinct pools of PDE activity, a rolipram-sensitive pool and an 8-methoxymethyl IBMX (8MM-IBMX)-sensitive pool. We observed that the rolipram-sensitive PDE (PDE4) was primarily responsible for cAMP hydrolysis near the plasma membrane. Finally, we observed that PDE4 was capable of blunting cAMP levels near the plasma membrane even when 100 μM cAMP were introduced into the cell via a patch pipette. Two compartment models predict that PDE activity near the plasma membrane, near cyclic nucleotide-gated channels, was significantly lower than total cellular PDE activity and that a slow spatial spread of cAMP allowed PDE activity to effectively hydrolyze near-membrane cAMP. These results imply that cAMP levels near the plasma membrane are distinct from those in other subcellular compartments; PDE activity is not uniform within cells; and localized pools of AC and PDE activities are responsible for controlling cAMP levels within distinct subcellular compartments. PMID:26201952

Unified Least Squares Methods for the Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests With the Gold Standard

PubMed Central

Tang, Liansheng Larry; Yuan, Ao; Collins, John; Che, Xuan; Chan, Leighton

2017-01-01

The article proposes a unified least squares method to estimate the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) parameters for continuous and ordinal diagnostic tests, such as cancer biomarkers. The method is based on a linear model framework using the empirically estimated sensitivities and specificities as input “data.” It gives consistent estimates for regression and accuracy parameters when the underlying continuous test results are normally distributed after some monotonic transformation. The key difference between the proposed method and the method of Tang and Zhou lies in the response variable. The response variable in the latter is transformed empirical ROC curves at different thresholds. It takes on many values for continuous test results, but few values for ordinal test results. The limited number of values for the response variable makes it impractical for ordinal data. However, the response variable in the proposed method takes on many more distinct values so that the method yields valid estimates for ordinal data. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to investigate and compare the finite sample performance of the proposed method with an existing method, and the method is then used to analyze 2 real cancer diagnostic example as an illustration. PMID:28469385

The Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure in young children: responsiveness and minimal clinically important difference.

PubMed

Gaunt, D M; Metcalfe, C; Ridd, M

2016-11-01

The Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) has been recommended as the core patient-reported outcome measure for trials of eczema treatments. Using data from the Choice of Moisturiser for Eczema Treatment randomized feasibility study, we assess the responsiveness to change and determine the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of the POEM in young children with eczema. Responsiveness to change by repeated administrations of the POEM was investigated in relation to change recalled using the Parent Global Assessment (PGA) measure. Five methods of determining the MCID of the POEM were employed; three anchor-based methods using PGA as the anchor: the within-patient score change, between-patient score change and sensitivity and specificity method, and two distribution-based methods: effect size estimate and the one half standard deviation of the baseline distribution of POEM scores. Successive POEM scores were found to be responsive to change in eczema severity. The MCID of the POEM change score, in relation to a slight improvement in eczema severity as recalled by parents on the PGA, estimated by the within-patient score change (4.27), the between-patient score change (2.89) and the sensitivity and specificity method (3.00) was similar to the one half standard deviation of the POEM baseline scores (2.94) and the effect size estimate (2.50). The Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure as applied to young children is responsive to change, and the MCID is around 3. This study will encourage the use of POEM and aid in determining sample size for future randomized controlled trials of treatments for eczema in young children. © 2016 The Authors. Allergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The evaluation of distributed damage in concrete based on sinusoidal modeling of the ultrasonic response.

PubMed

Sepehrinezhad, Alireza; Toufigh, Vahab

2018-05-25

Ultrasonic wave attenuation is an effective descriptor of distributed damage in inhomogeneous materials. Methods developed to measure wave attenuation have the potential to provide an in-site evaluation of existing concrete structures insofar as they are accurate and time-efficient. In this study, material classification and distributed damage evaluation were investigated based on the sinusoidal modeling of the response from the through-transmission ultrasonic tests on polymer concrete specimens. The response signal was modeled as single or the sum of damping sinusoids. Due to the inhomogeneous nature of concrete materials, model parameters may vary from one specimen to another. Therefore, these parameters are not known in advance and should be estimated while the response signal is being received. The modeling procedure used in this study involves a data-adaptive algorithm to estimate the parameters online. Data-adaptive algorithms are used due to a lack of knowledge of the model parameters. The damping factor was estimated as a descriptor of the distributed damage. The results were compared in two different cases as follows: (1) constant excitation frequency with varying concrete mixtures and (2) constant mixture with varying excitation frequencies. The specimens were also loaded up to their ultimate compressive strength to investigate the effect of distributed damage in the response signal. The results of the estimation indicated that the damping was highly sensitive to the change in material inhomogeneity, even in comparable mixtures. In addition to the proposed method, three methods were employed to compare the results based on their accuracy in the classification of materials and the evaluation of the distributed damage. It is shown that the estimated damping factor is not only sensitive to damage in the final stages of loading, but it is also applicable in evaluating micro damages in the earlier stages providing a reliable descriptor of damage. In addition, the modified amplitude ratio method is introduced as an improvement of the classical method. The proposed methods were validated to be effective descriptors of distributed damage. The presented models were also in good agreement with the experimental data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SCALE 6.2 Continuous-Energy TSUNAMI-3D Capabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perfetti, Christopher M; Rearden, Bradley T

2015-01-01

The TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation) capabilities within the SCALE code system make use of sensitivity coefficients for an extensive number of criticality safety applications, such as quantifying the data-induced uncertainty in the eigenvalue of critical systems, assessing the neutronic similarity between different systems, quantifying computational biases, and guiding nuclear data adjustment studies. The need to model geometrically complex systems with improved ease of use and fidelity and the desire to extend TSUNAMI analysis to advanced applications have motivated the development of a SCALE 6.2 module for calculating sensitivity coefficients using three-dimensional (3D) continuous-energy (CE) Montemore » Carlo methods: CE TSUNAMI-3D. This paper provides an overview of the theory, implementation, and capabilities of the CE TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity analysis methods. CE TSUNAMI contains two methods for calculating sensitivity coefficients in eigenvalue sensitivity applications: (1) the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method and (2) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Track length importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method. This work also presents the GEneralized Adjoint Response in Monte Carlo method (GEAR-MC), a first-of-its-kind approach for calculating adjoint-weighted, generalized response sensitivity coefficients—such as flux responses or reaction rate ratios—in CE Monte Carlo applications. The accuracy and efficiency of the CE TSUNAMI-3D eigenvalue sensitivity methods are assessed from a user perspective in a companion publication, and the accuracy and features of the CE TSUNAMI-3D GEAR-MC methods are detailed in this paper.« less

The effects of physical activity on impulsive choice: Influence of sensitivity to reinforcement amount and delay

PubMed Central

Strickland, Justin C.; Feinstein, Max A.; Lacy, Ryan T.; Smith, Mark A.

2016-01-01

Impulsive choice is a diagnostic feature and/or complicating factor for several psychological disorders and may be examined in the laboratory using delay-discounting procedures. Recent investigators have proposed using quantitative measures of analysis to examine the behavioral processes contributing to impulsive choice. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of physical activity (i.e., wheel running) on impulsive choice in a single-response, discrete-trial procedure using two quantitative methods of analysis. To this end, rats were assigned to physical activity or sedentary groups and trained to respond in a delay-discounting procedure. In this procedure, one lever always produced one food pellet immediately, whereas a second lever produced three food pellets after a 0, 10, 20, 40, or 80-second delay. Estimates of sensitivity to reinforcement amount and sensitivity to reinforcement delay were determined using (1) a simple linear analysis and (2) an analysis of logarithmically transformed response ratios. Both analyses revealed that physical activity decreased sensitivity to reinforcement amount and sensitivity to reinforcement delay. These findings indicate that (1) physical activity has significant but functionally opposing effects on the behavioral processes that contribute to impulsive choice and (2) both quantitative methods of analysis are appropriate for use in single-response, discrete-trial procedures. PMID:26964905

Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

2014-08-01

While a majority of Global Climate Models project dryer and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC Land Surface Model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent ThroughFall Exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different Water Stress Function (WSF) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentration, the increased Water Use Efficiency (WUE) mitigates the ISBACC's sensitivity to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulation improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

An evaluation of the seven-day toxicity test with Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lussier, S.M.; Kuhn, A.; Comeleo, R.

The 7-d test measuring survival, growth, and fecundity of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) was developed for estimating the chronic toxicity of effluents and associated receiving waters for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits. Currently, this test and its derivatives are also used in toxicity identification evaluation (TIE), risk assessment, and other applications. To evaluate the relative sensitivity of three measurement endpoints (survival, growth, and fecundity), the authors analyzed results from 115 tests with effluents, organic or inorganic chemicals, and receiving waters suspected of being toxic. Controls for 78 of these achieved acceptable survival and growth. Fifty of these 78more » tests also achieved acceptable control fecundity. In the 47 tests with significant effects, survival was the most sensitive response in 57%, fecundity in 30%, and growth in 30%. There was little duplication in responses. Improving pretest holding conditions by decreasing the maximum density from {approximately}20 to 10 animals/L and increasing the temperature from {approximately}26 C to a range of 26 to 27 C improved the growth and fecundity in controls. Although the percentage of tests achieving acceptable control survival and growth decreased from 93 to 86%, the percentage achieving acceptable fecundity in controls increased from 60 to 97%. Seasonal differences in fecundity were detected among control groups. Although variable, fecundity is often the most sensitive measure of response. The 7-d mysid test estimates the chronic toxicity of effluents most effectively when all three endpoints are used.« less

Most robust estimate of the Transient Climate Response yet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Venema, Victor; Schurer, Andrew

2017-04-01

Estimates of the Transient Climate Response often lack a coherent hemispheric or otherwise spatio-temporal representation. In the light of recent work that highlights the importance of inhomogeneous forcing considerations (Shindell et al 2014; Marvel et al 2015) and tas/tos-related inaccuracies (Richardson et al. 2016), here we present results from a well-tested two-box response model that takes these effects carefully into account. All external forcing data are updated based on latest emission estimates as well as recent TSI and volcanic AOD estimates. So are observed GMST data which include data for the entire year of 2016. Hence we also provide one of the first TCR estimates taking the latest El Nino into account. We demonstrate that short-term climate variability is not going to change the TCR estimate beyond very minor fluctuations. The method is therefore shown to be robust within surprisingly small uncertainty estimates. Using PMIP3 and an extended ensemble of HadCM3 simulations (Euro500; Schurer et al. 2014) GCM simulations for the pre-industrial period, we test the fast and slow response time constants that are tailored for observational data (Ripdal 2012). We also test the hemispheric response as well as the response over land and ocean separately. The TCR/ECS ratio is taken from a selected sub-set of CMIP5 simulations. The selection criteria is the best spatiotemporal match over 4 different time periods between 1860 and 2010. We will argue that this procedure should also be standard procedure to estimate ECS from observations, rather than relying on OHC estimates only. Finally, the demonstrate that PMIP3-type simulations that are initialised at least a century before 1850 (as is the standard initialisation for CMIP5-type simulations) are to be preferred. Remaining long-term radiative imbalance due to strong volcanic eruptions (e.g. Gleckler et al. 2006) tend to make CMIP5-type simulations slightly more sensitive to forcing, which leads to detectable stronger warming up until recent day.

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating weather spectrum parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, W. T.

1989-01-01

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating the weather parameters from pulse Doppler radar measurement data are investigated. The pulse pair method of estimating the spectrum mean and spectrum width of the weather is emphasized. The loss of sensitivity, a measure of the signal power lost due to filtering, is also considered. A flexible software tool developed to investigate these effects is described. It allows for simulated weather radar data, in which the user specifies an underlying truncated Gaussian spectrum, as well as for externally generated data which may be real or simulated. The filter may be implemented in either the time or the frequency domain. The software tool is validated by comparing unfiltered spectrum mean and width estimates to their true values, and by reproducing previously published results. The effects on the weather parameter estimates using simulated weather-only data are evaluated for five filters: an ideal filter, two infinite impulse response filters, and two finite impulse response filters. Results considering external data, consisting of weather and clutter data, are evaluated on a range cell by range cell basis. Finally, it is shown theoretically and by computer simulation that a linear phase response is not required for a clutter rejection filter preceeding pulse-pair parameter estimation.

Discrimination of Influenza Infection (A/2009 H1N1) from Prior Exposure by Antibody Protein Microarray Analysis

PubMed Central

te Beest, Dennis; de Bruin, Erwin; Imholz, Sandra; Wallinga, Jacco; Teunis, Peter; Koopmans, Marion; van Boven, Michiel

2014-01-01

Reliable discrimination of recent influenza A infection from previous exposure using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) or virus neutralization tests is currently not feasible. This is due to low sensitivity of the tests and the interference of antibody responses generated by previous infections. Here we investigate the diagnostic characteristics of a newly developed antibody (HA1) protein microarray using data from cross-sectional serological studies carried out before and after the pandemic of 2009. The data are analysed by mixture models, providing a probabilistic classification of sera (susceptible, prior-exposed, recently infected). Estimated sensitivity and specificity for identifying A/2009 infections are low using HI (66% and 51%), and high when using A/2009 microarray data alone or together with A/1918 microarray data (96% and 95%). As a heuristic, a high A/2009 to A/1918 antibody ratio (>1.05) is indicative of recent infection, while a low ratio is indicative of a pre-existing response, even if the A/2009 titer is high. We conclude that highly sensitive and specific classification of individual sera is possible using the protein microarray, thereby enabling precise estimation of age-specific infection attack rates in the population even if sample sizes are small. PMID:25405997

Sexual-perception processes in acquaintance-targeted sexual aggression.

PubMed

Treat, Teresa A; Viken, Richard J

2018-05-01

This study analyzes data from seven published studies to examine whether three performance-based indices of men's misperception of women's sexual interest (MSI), derived from a self-report questionnaire, are associated with sexual-aggression history, rape-supportive attitudes, sociosexuality, problem drinking, and self-reported MSI. Almost 2000 undergraduate men judged the justifiability of a man's increasingly unwanted advances toward a woman on the Heterosocial Perception Survey-Revised. Participants self-reported any sexual-aggression history, and some completed questionnaires assessing rape-supportive attitudes, sociosexuality, problem drinking, and self-reported MSI. A three-parameter logistic function was fitted to participants' justifiability ratings within a non-linear mixed-effects framework, which provided precise participant-specific estimates of three sexual-perception processes (baseline justifiability, bias, and sensitivity). Sexual-aggression history and rape-supportive attitudes predicted: (a) reduced sensitivity to women's affect; (b) more liberal biases, such that the woman's affect had to be more negative before justifiability ratings dropped substantially; and (c) greater baseline justifiability of continued advances after a positive response. Sexual-aggression history and attitudes correlated more strongly with sensitivity than baseline justifiability; remaining variables showed the opposite pattern. This work underscores the role of sexual-perception processes in sexual aggression and illustrates the derivation of performance-based estimates of sexual-perception processes from questionnaire responses. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cross-well slug testing in unconfined aquifers: A case study from the Sleepers River Watershed, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belitz, K.; Dripps, W.

1999-01-01

Normally, slug test measurements are limited to the well in which the water level is perturbed. Consequently, it is often difficult to obtain reliable estimates of hydraulic properties, particularly if the aquifer is anisotropic or if there is a wellbore skin. In this investigation, we use partially penetrating stress and observation wells to evaluate specific storage, radial hydraulic conductivity and anisotropy of the aquifer, and the hydraulic conductivity of the borehole skin. The study site is located in the W9 subbasin of the Sleepers River Research Watershed, Vermont. At the site, ~3 m of saturated till are partially penetrated by a stress well located in the center of the unconfined aquifer and six observation wells located above, below, and at the depth of the stress well at radial distances of 1.2 and 2.4 m. The observation wells were shut in with inflatable packers. The semianalytical solution of Butler (1995) was used to conduct a sensitivity analysis and to interpret slug test results. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the response of the stress well is primarily sensitive to radial hydraulic conductivity, less sensitive to anisotropy and the conductivity of the borehole skin, and nearly insensitive to specific storage. In contrast, the responses of the observation wells are sensitive to all four parameters. Interpretation of the field data was facilitated by generating type curves in a manner analogous to the method of Cooper et al. (1967). Because the value of radial hydraulic conductivity is obtained from a match point, the number of unknowns is reduced to three. The estimated values of radial hydraulic conductivity and specific storage are comparable to those derived from the methods of Bouwer and Rice (1976) and Cooper et al. (1967). The values and skin conductivity, however, could not have been obtained without the use of observation wells.Normally, slug test measurements are limited to the well in which the water level is perturbed. Consequently, it is often difficult to obtain reliable estimates of hydraulic properties, particularly if the aquifer is anisotropic or if there is a wellbore skin. In this investigation, we use partially penetrating stress and observation wells to evaluate specific storage, radial hydraulic conductivity and anisotropy of the aquifer, and the hydraulic conductivity of the borehole skin. The study site is located in the W9 subbasin of the Sleepers River Research Watershed, Vermont. At the site, approximately 3 m of saturated till are partially penetrated by a stress well located in the center of the unconfined aquifer and six observation wells located above, below, and at the depth of the stress well at radial distances of 1.2 and 2.4 m. The observation wells were shut in with inflatable packers. The semianalytical solution of Buffer (1995) was used to conduct a sensitivity analysis and to interpret slug test results. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the response of the stress well is primarily sensitive to radial hydraulic conductivity, less sensitive to anisotropy and the conductivity of the borehole skin, and nearly insensitive to specific storage. In contrast, the responses of the observation wells are sensitive to all four parameters. Interpretation of the field data was facilitated by generating type curves in a manner analogous to the method of Cooper et al. (1967). Because the value of radial hydraulic conductivity is obtained from a match point, the number of unknowns is reduced to three. The estimated values of radial hydraulic conductivity and specific storage are comparable to those derived from the methods of Bouwer and Rice (1976) and Cooper et al. (1967). The values and skin conductivity, however, could not have been obtained without the use of observation wells.

Differential Sensitivity to Drought in Six Central U.S. Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, A.; Carroll, C. J. W.; Denton, E. M.; La Pierre, K. J.; Wilcox, K. R.; Collins, S. L.; Smith, M.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems often vary dramatically in their responses to drought, but the reasons why are unclear. With climate change forecasts for more frequent and extensive drought in the future, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine differential ecosystem sensitivity to drought is needed. In 2012, the Central U.S. experienced the 4th largest drought in a century, with a regional-scale 40% reduction in growing season precipitation affecting ecosystems ranging from desert grassland to mesic tallgrass prairie. This provided an opportunity to assess ecosystem sensitivity to a drought of common magnitude in six native grasslands. We tested the prediction that drought sensitivity is inversely related to mean annual precipitation (MAP) by quantifying reductions in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Long-term ANPP data available for each site (mean length = 16 yrs) were used as a baseline for calculating reductions in ANPP, and drought sensitivity was estimated as the reduction in ANPP per mm reduction in precipitation. Arid grasslands were the most sensitive to drought, but drought responses and sensitivity varied by more than 2-fold among the six grasslands, despite all sites experiencing 40% reductions in growing season precipitation. Although drought sensitivity generally decreased with increasing MAP as predicted, there was evidence that the identity and traits of the dominant species, as well as plant functional diversity, influenced sensitivity.

Influence of gender and the oestrous cycle on in vitro contractile responses of the rat urinary bladder to cholinergic stimulation

PubMed Central

Longhurst, Penelope A; Levendusky, Mark

2000-01-01

Experiments were done to determine the influence of gender and the oestrous cycle on rat urinary bladder contractility in response to cholinergic stimulation. Bladder strips from female rats responded to high frequency stimulation with smaller contractile responses than did strips from males, and to low concentrations of carbachol with greater responses. The decreased responsiveness of bladder strips from female rats to electrical field stimulation can be primarily attributed to the rats in the oestrous stage of the oestrous cycle. Bladder strips from female rats in all stages of the oestrous cycle were more sensitive to carbachol than those from males, but there were no differences in sensitivity to electrical field stimulation. The contractile responses of strips from both male and female rats to carbachol were antagonized by muscarinic antagonists with the following rank order of affinity (pA2) estimates: 4-DAMP>>pirenzepine>methoctramine, suggesting that the receptor mediating contraction was the M3 subtype. There were no differences in pA2 values between bladder strips from male and female rats. The data indicate that responsiveness of bladder strips to electrical field stimulation and carbachol is altered in female rats in the oestrous stage of the oestrous cycle. Furthermore, gender influences the sensitivity of rat bladder to muscarinic stimulation. PMID:10991909

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Chambert, T.; Stauffer, G.E.; Garrott, R.A.

2012-01-01

1.Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2.We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3.We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4.Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life-history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top- and middle-trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Perspectives on Non-Animal Alternatives for Assessing Sensitization Potential in Allergic Contact Dermatitis

PubMed Central

Sharma, Nripen S.; Jindal, Rohit; Mitra, Bhaskar; Lee, Serom; Li, Lulu; Maguire, Tim J.; Schloss, Rene; Yarmush, Martin L.

2014-01-01

Skin sensitization remains a major environmental and occupational health hazard. Animal models have been used as the gold standard method of choice for estimating chemical sensitization potential. However, a growing international drive and consensus for minimizing animal usage have prompted the development of in vitro methods to assess chemical sensitivity. In this paper, we examine existing approaches including in silico models, cell and tissue based assays for distinguishing between sensitizers and irritants. The in silico approaches that have been discussed include Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (QSAR) and QSAR based expert models that correlate chemical molecular structure with biological activity and mechanism based read-across models that incorporate compound electrophilicity. The cell and tissue based assays rely on an assortment of mono and co-culture cell systems in conjunction with 3D skin models. Given the complexity of allergen induced immune responses, and the limited ability of existing systems to capture the entire gamut of cellular and molecular events associated with these responses, we also introduce a microfabricated platform that can capture all the key steps involved in allergic contact sensitivity. Finally, we describe the development of an integrated testing strategy comprised of two or three tier systems for evaluating sensitization potential of chemicals. PMID:24741377

Heart rate detection from an electronic weighing scale.

PubMed

González-Landaeta, R; Casas, O; Pallàs-Areny, R

2007-01-01

We propose a novel technique for heart rate detection on a subject that stands on a common electronic weighing scale. The detection relies on sensing force variations related to the blood acceleration in the aorta, works even if wearing footwear, and does not require any sensors attached to the body. We have applied our method to three different weighing scales, and estimated whether their sensitivity and frequency response suited heart rate detection. Scale sensitivities were from 490 nV/V/N to 1670 nV/V/N, all had an underdamped transient response and their dynamic gain error was below 19% at 10 Hz, which are acceptable values for heart rate estimation. We also designed a pulse detection system based on off-the-shelf integrated circuits, whose gain was about 70x10(3) and able to sense force variations about 240 mN. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the main peaks of the pulse signal detected was higher than 48 dB, which is large enough to estimate the heart rate by simple signal processing methods. To validate the method, the ECG and the force signal were simultaneously recorded on 12 volunteers. The maximal error obtained from heart rates determined from these two signals was +/-0.6 beats/minute.

Heart rate detection from an electronic weighing scale.

PubMed

González-Landaeta, R; Casas, O; Pallàs-Areny, R

2008-08-01

We propose a novel technique for beat-to-beat heart rate detection based on the ballistocardiographic (BCG) force signal from a subject standing on a common electronic weighing scale. The detection relies on sensing force variations related to the blood acceleration in the aorta, works even if wearing footwear and does not require any sensors attached to the body because it uses the load cells in the scale. We have devised an approach to estimate the sensitivity and frequency response of three commercial weighing scales to assess their capability to detect the BCG force signal. Static sensitivities ranged from 490 nV V(-1) N(-1) to 1670 nV V(-1) N(-1). The frequency response depended on the subject's mass but it was broad enough for heart rate estimation. We have designed an electronic pulse detection system based on off-the-shelf integrated circuits to sense heart-beat-related force variations of about 0.24 N. The signal-to-noise ratio of the main peaks of the force signal detected was higher than 30 dB. A Bland-Altman plot was used to compare the RR time intervals estimated from the ECG and BCG force signals for 17 volunteers. The error was +/-21 ms, which makes the proposed technique suitable for short-term monitoring of the heart rate.

Estimation of antigenic tetanus toxoid extracted from biodegradable microspheres.

PubMed

Xing, D K; McLellan, K; Corbel, M J; Sesardic, D

1996-03-01

Microspheres made from poly (lactic/glycolic acid) polymers have been considered as a new delivery system for single-dose tetanus toxoid (TT) vaccines. One of the most critical properties of the proposed vaccines is the loading and distribution of TT as this will have a profound effect on immunogenicity. As the concentration of TT in microspheres is very low sensitive assay methods are required. An assay incorporating monoclonal antibody (MAb) recognizing a neutralizing epitope and cross-reacting with TT was developed (MAp capture ELISA) which provided a sensitivity of 0.001 Lf/ml. An extraction procedure was devised which did not destroy the antigenicity and gave a recovery of 90.6 +/- 3.39% when applied to different preparations. The extracted TT was then quantified by MAb capture ELISA which was estimated to be 250-fold more sensitive than single-site ELISA for toxoid. The loading of 20 microspheres preparations (12 filled and 8 placebo) was determined by both protein micro-BCA assay and the developed assay for TT. The TT content obtained for the 12 filled microspheres preparations from different sources varied up to 400-fold (range 0.01-4.0 Lf/mg microspheres). The utility of the MAb capture ELISA for detection of total antigenic content in microspheres was confirmed by the observation that the determine TT loading correlated with the theoretical loading predicted from the protein content for the best preparations. Preparations with high loading gave the greatest peak response. There was no relationship between dose and the in vivo immunogenic response, suggesting that encapsulated vaccines with differential loading, release properties and presence of excipients will have different response curves in vivo. Hence, the present assay, when combined with information on toxoid release rate and presence and effect of excipients may be of value in predicting in vivo response.

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Lisdexamfetamine Versus Atomoxetine in the Treatment of Children and Adolescents with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Inadequate Response to Methylphenidate.

PubMed

Zimovetz, Evelina A; Beard, Stephen M; Hodgkins, Paul; Bischof, Matthias; Mauskopf, Josephine A; Setyawan, Juliana

2016-10-01

An economic analysis from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS) evaluated the cost effectiveness of lisdexamfetamine dimesylate (LDX) compared with atomoxetine in children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder who have had an inadequate response to methylphenidate. A 1-year decision-analytic model was constructed, with the health outcomes "response", "nonresponse", and "unable to tolerate". Clinical data were taken from a head-to-head, randomized controlled trial in inadequate responders to methylphenidate. Response to treatment was defined as a score of 1 (very much improved) or 2 (much improved) on the Clinical Global Impression-Improvement subscale. Tolerability was assessed by discontinuation rates owing to adverse events. Utility weights were identified via a systematic literature review. Healthcare resource use estimates were obtained via a survey of clinicians. Daily drug costs were derived from British National Formulary 2012 costs and mean doses reported in the trial. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were performed. The comparison of LDX with atomoxetine resulted in an estimate of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £1802 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The result was robust in a wide range of sensitivity analyses; results were most sensitive to changes in drug costs and efficacy. In the PSA, assuming a maximum willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY, LDX versus atomoxetine had an 86 % probability of being cost effective. In 38 % of PSA runs, LDX was more effective and less costly than atomoxetine. From the perspective of the UK NHS, LDX provides a cost-effective treatment option for children and adolescents who are inadequate responders to methylphenidate.

Reducing under-reporting of stigmatized health events using the List Experiment: results from a randomized, population-based study of abortion in Liberia.

PubMed

Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Dehlendorf, Christine; Bawo, Luke; Dahn, Bernice; Zolia, Yah; Vittinghoff, Eric; Hiatt, Robert A; Gerdts, Caitlin

2015-12-01

Direct measurement of sensitive health events is often limited by high levels of under-reporting due to stigma and concerns about privacy. Abortion in particular is notoriously difficult to measure. This study implements a novel method to estimate the cumulative lifetime incidence of induced abortion in Liberia. In a randomly selected sample of 3219 women ages 15–49 years in June 2013 in Liberia, we implemented the ‘Double List Experiment’. To measure abortion incidence, each woman was read two lists: (A) a list of non-sensitive items and (B) a list of correlated non-sensitive items with abortion added. The sensitive item, abortion, was randomly added to either List A or List B for each respondent. The respondent reported a simple count of the options on each list that she had experienced, without indicating which options. Difference in means calculations between the average counts for each list were then averaged to provide an estimate of the population proportion that has had an abortion. The list experiment estimates that 32% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29-0.34) of respondents surveyed had ever had an abortion (26% of women in urban areas, and 36% of women in rural areas, P-value for difference < 0.001), with a 95% response rate. The list experiment generated an estimate five times greater than the only previous representative estimate of abortion in Liberia, indicating the potential utility of this method to reduce under-reporting in the measurement of abortion. The method could be widely applied to measure other stigmatized health topics, including sexual behaviours, sexual assault or domestic violence.

Differential sensitivity to regional-scale drought in six central US grasslands.

PubMed

Knapp, Alan K; Carroll, Charles J W; Denton, Elsie M; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Collins, Scott L; Smith, Melinda D

2015-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems often vary dramatically in their responses to drought, but the reasons for this are unclear. With climate change forecasts for more frequent and extensive drought in the future, a more complete understanding of the mechanisms that determine differential ecosystem sensitivity to drought is needed. In 2012, the Central US experienced the fourth largest drought in a century, with a regional-scale 40% reduction in growing season precipitation affecting ecosystems ranging from desert grassland to mesic tallgrass prairie. This provided an opportunity to assess ecosystem sensitivity to a drought of common magnitude in six native grasslands. We tested the prediction that drought sensitivity is inversely related to mean annual precipitation (MAP) by quantifying reductions in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Long-term ANPP data available for each site (mean length = 16 years) were used as a baseline for calculating reductions in ANPP, and drought sensitivity was estimated as the reduction in ANPP per millimeter reduction in precipitation. Arid grasslands were the most sensitive to drought, but drought responses and sensitivity varied by more than twofold among the six grasslands, despite all sites experiencing 40% reductions in growing season precipitation. Although drought sensitivity generally decreased with increasing MAP as predicted, there was evidence that the identity and traits of the dominant species, as well as plant functional diversity, influenced sensitivity. A more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms leading to differences in drought sensitivity will require multi-site manipulative experiments designed to assess both biotic and abiotic determinants of ecosystem sensitivity.

Development of an in vitro skin sensitization test based on ROS production in THP-1 cells.

PubMed

Saito, Kazutoshi; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Nukada, Yuko; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Nishiyama, Naohiro

2013-03-01

Recently, it has been reported that reactive oxygen species (ROS) produced by contact allergens can affect dendritic cell migration and contact hypersensitivity. The aim of the present study was to develop a new in vitro assay that could predict the skin sensitizing potential of chemicals by measuring ROS production in THP-1 (human monocytic leukemia cell line) cells. THP-1 cells were pre-loaded with a ROS sensitive fluorescent dye, 5-(and 6-)-chloromethyl-2', 7'-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate, acetyl ester (CM-H2DCFDA), for 15min, then incubated with test chemicals for 30min. The fluorescence intensity was measured by flow cytometry. For the skin sensitizers, 25 out of 30 induced over a 2-fold ROS production at more than 90% of cell viability. In contrast, increases were only seen in 4 out of 20 non-sensitizers. The overall accuracy for the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was 82% for 50 chemicals tested. A correlation was found between the estimated concentration showing 2-fold ROS production in the ROS assay and the EC3 values (estimated concentration required to induce positive response) of the LLNA. These results indicated that the THP-1 cell-based ROS assay was a rapid and highly sensitive detection system able to predict skin sensitizing potentials and potency of chemicals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal resolution of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) auditory system.

PubMed

Mann, David A; Colbert, Debborah E; Gaspard, Joseph C; Casper, Brandon M; Cook, Mandy L H; Reep, Roger L; Bauer, Gordon B

2005-10-01

Auditory evoked potential (AEP) measurements of two Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) were measured in response to amplitude modulated tones. The AEP measurements showed weak responses to test stimuli from 4 kHz to 40 kHz. The manatee modulation rate transfer function (MRTF) is maximally sensitive to 150 and 600 Hz amplitude modulation (AM) rates. The 600 Hz AM rate is midway between the AM sensitivities of terrestrial mammals (chinchillas, gerbils, and humans) (80-150 Hz) and dolphins (1,000-1,200 Hz). Audiograms estimated from the input-output functions of the EPs greatly underestimate behavioral hearing thresholds measured in two other manatees. This underestimation is probably due to the electrodes being located several centimeters from the brain.

A Novel Method of Combining Blood Oxygenation and Blood Flow Sensitive Magnetic Resonance Imaging Techniques to Measure the Cerebral Blood Flow and Oxygen Metabolism Responses to an Unknown Neural Stimulus

PubMed Central

Simon, Aaron B.; Griffeth, Valerie E. M.; Wong, Eric C.; Buxton, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Simultaneous implementation of magnetic resonance imaging methods for Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) and Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) imaging makes it possible to quantitatively measure the changes in cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral oxygen metabolism (CMRO2) that occur in response to neural stimuli. To date, however, the range of neural stimuli amenable to quantitative analysis is limited to those that may be presented in a simple block or event related design such that measurements may be repeated and averaged to improve precision. Here we examined the feasibility of using the relationship between cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal to improve dynamic estimates of blood flow fluctuations as well as to estimate metabolic-hemodynamic coupling under conditions where a stimulus pattern is unknown. We found that by combining the information contained in simultaneously acquired BOLD and ASL signals through a method we term BOLD Constrained Perfusion (BCP) estimation, we could significantly improve the precision of our estimates of the hemodynamic response to a visual stimulus and, under the conditions of a calibrated BOLD experiment, accurately determine the ratio of the oxygen metabolic response to the hemodynamic response. Importantly we were able to accomplish this without utilizing a priori knowledge of the temporal nature of the neural stimulus, suggesting that BOLD Constrained Perfusion estimation may make it feasible to quantitatively study the cerebral metabolic and hemodynamic responses to more natural stimuli that cannot be easily repeated or averaged. PMID:23382977

The influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the atmosphere in the cold season at seasonal to multidecadal time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankignoul, C.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence of an atmospheric response to the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomalies has been accumulating since the late 90's, suggesting that it drives a negative NAO response during late fall/early winter. The North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly is in part stochastically driven by the atmosphere, but at low frequency it is correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Correspondingly, an atmospheric response to the AMO has been detected at low frequency in winter, with a positive AMO phase leading a negative NAO-like pattern, consistent with sensitivity studies with atmospheric general circulation models. Both the subpolar and tropical components of the AMO seem to contribute to its influence on the atmosphere. As North Atlantic SST changes reflects internally-generated SST fluctuations as well the response to anthropogenic and other external forcing, the AMO is sensitive to the way the forced SST signal is removed; estimates of the natural variability of the AMO vary by as much as a factor of two between estimation methods, leading to possible biases in its alleged impacts. Since an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) leads the AMO and drives a negative NAO in many climate models, albeit with different lead times, the relation between AMO and AMOC will be discussed, as well as possible links with the North Pacific and sea ice variability.

Doping in Two Elite Athletics Competitions Assessed by Randomized-Response Surveys.

PubMed

Ulrich, Rolf; Pope, Harrison G; Cléret, Léa; Petróczi, Andrea; Nepusz, Tamás; Schaffer, Jay; Kanayama, Gen; Comstock, R Dawn; Simon, Perikles

2018-01-01

Doping in sports compromises fair play and endangers health. To deter doping among elite athletes, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) oversees testing of several hundred thousand athletic blood and urine samples annually, of which 1-2% test positive. Measures using the Athlete Biological Passport suggest a higher mean prevalence of about 14% positive tests. Biological testing, however, likely fails to detect many cutting-edge doping techniques, and thus the true prevalence of doping remains unknown. We surveyed 2167 athletes at two sporting events: the 13th International Association of Athletics Federations Word Championships in Athletics (WCA) in Daegu, South Korea in August 2011 and the 12th Quadrennial Pan-Arab Games (PAG) in Doha, Qatar in December 2011. To estimate the prevalence of doping, we utilized a "randomized response technique," which guarantees anonymity for individuals when answering a sensitive question. We also administered a control question at PAG assessing past-year use of supplements. The estimated prevalence of past-year doping was 43.6% (95% confidence interval 39.4-47.9) at WCA and 57.1% (52.4-61.8) at PAG. The estimated prevalence of past-year supplement use at PAG was 70.1% (65.6-74.7%). Sensitivity analyses, assessing the robustness of these estimates under numerous hypothetical scenarios of intentional or unintentional noncompliance by respondents, suggested that we were unlikely to have overestimated the true prevalence of doping. Doping appears remarkably widespread among elite athletes, and remains largely unchecked despite current biological testing. The survey technique presented here will allow future investigators to generate continued reference estimates of the prevalence of doping.

Time to clinical response: an outcome of antibiotic therapy of febrile neutropenia with implications for quality and cost of care.

PubMed

Elting, L S; Rubenstein, E B; Rolston, K; Cantor, S B; Martin, C G; Kurtin, D; Rodriguez, S; Lam, T; Kanesan, K; Bodey, G

2000-11-01

To determine whether antibiotic regimens with similar rates of response differ significantly in the speed of response and to estimate the impact of this difference on the cost of febrile neutropenia. The time point of clinical response was defined by comparing the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of alternative objective and subjective definitions. Data from 488 episodes of febrile neutropenia, treated with either of two commonly used antibiotics (coded A or B) during six clinical trials, were pooled to compare the median time to clinical response, days of antibiotic therapy and hospitalization, and estimated costs. Response rates were similar; however, the median time to clinical response was significantly shorter with A-based regimens (5 days) compared with B-based regimens (7 days; P =.003). After 72 hours of therapy, 33% of patients who received A but only 18% of those who received B had responded (P =.01). These differences resulted in fewer days of antibiotic therapy and hospitalization with A-based regimens (7 and 9 days) compared with B-based regimens (9 and 12 days, respectively; P <.04) and in significantly lower estimated median costs ($8,491 v $11,133 per episode; P =.03). Early discharge at the time of clinical response should reduce the median cost from $10,752 to $8,162 (P <.001). Despite virtually identical rates of response, time to clinical response and estimated cost of care varied significantly among regimens. An early discharge strategy based on our definition of the time point of clinical response may further reduce the cost of treating non-low-risk patients with febrile neutropenia.

Neurobehavioral deficits, diseases, and associated costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European Union.

PubMed

Bellanger, Martine; Demeneix, Barbara; Grandjean, Philippe; Zoeller, R Thomas; Trasande, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Epidemiological studies and animal models demonstrate that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute to cognitive deficits and neurodevelopmental disabilities. The objective was to estimate neurodevelopmental disability and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposure in the European Union. An expert panel applied a weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and approximate burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized lifetime economic productivity estimates, lifetime cost estimates for autism spectrum disorder, and annual costs for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was carried out from a societal perspective, ie, including direct costs (eg, treatment costs) and indirect costs such as productivity loss. The panel identified a 70-100% probability that polybrominated diphenyl ether and organophosphate exposures contribute to IQ loss in the European population. Polybrominated diphenyl ether exposures were associated with 873,000 (sensitivity analysis, 148,000 to 2.02 million) lost IQ points and 3290 (sensitivity analysis, 3290 to 8080) cases of intellectual disability, at costs of €9.59 billion (sensitivity analysis, €1.58 billion to €22.4 billion). Organophosphate exposures were associated with 13.0 million (sensitivity analysis, 4.24 million to 17.1 million) lost IQ points and 59 300 (sensitivity analysis, 16,500 to 84,400) cases of intellectual disability, at costs of €146 billion (sensitivity analysis, €46.8 billion to €194 billion). Autism spectrum disorder causation by multiple EDCs was assigned a 20-39% probability, with 316 (sensitivity analysis, 126-631) attributable cases at a cost of €199 million (sensitivity analysis, €79.7 million to €399 million). Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder causation by multiple EDCs was assigned a 20-69% probability, with 19 300 to 31 200 attributable cases at a cost of €1.21 billion to €2.86 billion. EDC exposures in Europe contribute substantially to neurobehavioral deficits and disease, with a high probability of >€150 billion costs/year. These results emphasize the advantages of controlling EDC exposure.

Use of an ecosystem model for testing ecosystem response to inaccuracies of root and microflora productivity estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petersen, H.; O'Neill, R.V.; Gardner, R.H.

1984-01-01

A seventy-compartment model for a Danish beech forest ecosystem is described in outline. The unmodified model predicts considerable accumulation of wood litter and decreasing accumulation through secondary to final decomposition products. Increment rates are similar for all components of the detritus based food chain. Modification of fine root production rate produces strong, positive response for root litter, and less, but still significant, response for detritus, humus and the components of the decomposer food chain. Increase of microbial biomass with adjustments of metabolism and production causes reduced accumulation of detritus and humus. The soil organisms respond according to food source. Themore » use of the model for testing the sensitivity of the ecosystem to inaccuracies of rroot- and microflora estimates is discussed. 21 references, 3 figures, 1 table.« less

Evaluation and optimization of a commercial blocking ELISA for detecting antibodies to influenza A virus for research and surveillance of mallards.

PubMed

Shriner, Susan A; VanDalen, Kaci K; Root, J Jeffrey; Sullivan, Heather J

2016-02-01

The availability of a validated commercial assay is an asset for any wildlife investigation. However, commercial products are often developed for use in livestock and are not optimized for wildlife. Consequently, it is incumbent upon researchers and managers to apply commercial products appropriately to optimize program outcomes. We tested more than 800 serum samples from mallards for antibodies to influenza A virus with the IDEXX AI MultiS-Screen Ab test to evaluate assay performance. Applying the test per manufacturer's recommendations resulted in good performance with 84% sensitivity and 100% specificity. However, performance was improved to 98% sensitivity and 98% specificity by increasing the recommended cut-off. Using this alternative threshold for identifying positive and negative samples would greatly improve sample classification, especially for field samples collected months after infection when antibody titers have waned from the initial primary immune response. Furthermore, a threshold that balances sensitivity and specificity reduces estimation bias in seroprevalence estimates. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Relationship Between β-cell Response and Insulin Sensitivity in Horses based on the Oral Sugar Test and the Euglycemic Hyperinsulinemic Clamp.

PubMed

Lindåse, S; Nostell, K; Söder, J; Bröjer, J

2017-09-01

A hyperbolic relationship between β-cell response and insulin sensitivity (IS) has been described in several species including rodents, dogs, and humans. This relationship has not been elucidated in the horse. To determine whether the hyperbolic relationship between β-cell response and IS exists in horses by using indices of β-cell response from the oral sugar test (OST) and IS measurements from the euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp (EHC). A second aim was to compare how well IS estimates from the OST and EHC correlate. Forty-nine horses with different degrees of insulin regulation (normal-to-severe insulin dysregulation). Cross-sectional study. Horses were examined with an OST and an EHC. Decreased IS was associated with increased β-cell response in the horses. Nine of 12 comparisons between indices of β-cell response and IS measures fulfilled the criteria for a hyperbolic relationship. Indices of IS calculated from the OST correlated highly with the insulin-dependent glucose disposal rate (M) and the insulin-dependent glucose disposal rate per unit of insulin (M/I) determined from the EHC (r = 0.81-0.87). A hyperbolic relationship between β-cell response and IS exists in horses, which suggest that horses with insulin dysregulation respond not only with postprandial hyperinsulinemia but are also insulin resistant. The OST is primarily a test for β-cell response rather than a test for IS, but calculated indices of IS from the OST may be useful to estimate IS in horses, especially when the horse is insulin resistant. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

HVSR Response Evolution due to Seasonal Variation: Observations from 2 Years of Continuous Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurse, K. B.; Milkereit, B.

2017-12-01

The seismic Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio analysis technique reliably gives overburden depth to bedrock, for an independently determined Vs, based on the frequency of the main resonance peak. Above this, smaller resonances reflect the velocity structure within the overburden itself. This range in the HVSR response shows sufficient sensitivity to be exploited as a monitoring tool, to detect change in seismic physical properties and from that, change in overburden conditions. To explore the variation of the response, several 3C geophones have been deployed in southern Ontario, Canada since December 2015 (and ongoing). The local geology is a sedimentary basin with 30m of overburden, a simple 2D environment well suited for the HVSR method. Data are collected for 15s per minute, with an effective frequency band of 2-400Hz. HVSR estimates are produced for each sampling period and archived. Over these two years, winter freeze/thaw, saturated spring and summer draught conditions were sampled. H/V daily averages are dominated by the stable 3Hz resonance due to the overall surface layer, but smaller spectral peaks up to 100Hz are clear and evolve in frequency and amplitude over the collection period. Ground freeze/thaw cycles are clearly evident by significant reduction in the horizontal field, but also the changing of the soil moisture content throughout the year causes subtle shifts in the response (correlated to rain events and water table variation). The long term sampling does show a sensitivity of the HVSR method to the overburden in proximity to the sensor, and suggests a possibility for its use in monitoring soil / water-table conditions. But it also highlights that the estimate from an isolated H/V acquisition does include this variability and needs to be adequately quantified in VS30 estimates.

The effects of physical activity on impulsive choice: Influence of sensitivity to reinforcement amount and delay.

PubMed

Strickland, Justin C; Feinstein, Max A; Lacy, Ryan T; Smith, Mark A

2016-05-01

Impulsive choice is a diagnostic feature and/or complicating factor for several psychological disorders and may be examined in the laboratory using delay-discounting procedures. Recent investigators have proposed using quantitative measures of analysis to examine the behavioral processes contributing to impulsive choice. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of physical activity (i.e., wheel running) on impulsive choice in a single-response, discrete-trial procedure using two quantitative methods of analysis. To this end, rats were assigned to physical activity or sedentary groups and trained to respond in a delay-discounting procedure. In this procedure, one lever always produced one food pellet immediately, whereas a second lever produced three food pellets after a 0, 10, 20, 40, or 80-s delay. Estimates of sensitivity to reinforcement amount and sensitivity to reinforcement delay were determined using (1) a simple linear analysis and (2) an analysis of logarithmically transformed response ratios. Both analyses revealed that physical activity decreased sensitivity to reinforcement amount and sensitivity to reinforcement delay. These findings indicate that (1) physical activity has significant but functionally opposing effects on the behavioral processes that contribute to impulsive choice and (2) both quantitative methods of analysis are appropriate for use in single-response, discrete-trial procedures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimated Global Mortality Attributable to Smoke from Landscape Fires

PubMed Central

Henderson, Sarah B.; Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Marlier, Miriam; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kinney, Patrick; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Brauer, Michael

2012-01-01

Background: Forest, grass, and peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration–response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM2.5 from LFS (contrasted with 0 μg/m3 from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM2.5 estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion. Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration–response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000–600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS. PMID:22456494

The Hydrological Sensitivity to Global Warming and Solar Geoengineering Derived from Thermodynamic Constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleidon, Alex; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Renner, Maik

2015-01-16

We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many ofmore » the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.« less

Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loar, J.M.

2001-06-11

The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are notmore » available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies extrapolation an d development of new scaling models; (2) development of dose-response models for toxicity data presented in the literature; and (3) development of matrix-based population models that were coupled with dose-response models to provide realistic estimation of population-level effects for individual responses.« less

Benefit of hepatitis C virus core antigen assay in prediction of therapeutic response to interferon and ribavirin combination therapy.

PubMed

Takahashi, Masahiko; Saito, Hidetsugu; Higashimoto, Makiko; Atsukawa, Kazuhiro; Ishii, Hiromasa

2005-01-01

A highly sensitive second-generation hepatitis C virus (HCV) core antigen assay has recently been developed. We compared viral disappearance and first-phase kinetics between commercially available core antigen (Ag) assays, Lumipulse Ortho HCV Ag (Lumipulse-Ag), and a quantitative HCV RNA PCR assay, Cobas Amplicor HCV Monitor test, version 2 (Amplicor M), to estimate the predictive benefit of a sustained viral response (SVR) and non-SVR in 44 genotype 1b patients treated with interferon (IFN) and ribavirin. HCV core Ag negativity could predict SVR on day 1 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 85.0%, accuracy = 86.4%), whereas RNA negativity could predict SVR on day 7 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 87.2%, accuracy = 88.6%). None of the patients who had detectable serum core Ag or RNA on day 14 achieved SVR (specificity = 100%). The predictive accuracy on day 14 was higher by RNA negativity (93.2%) than that by core Ag negativity (75.0%). The combined predictive criterion of both viral load decline during the first 24 h and basal viral load was also predictive for SVR; the sensitivities of Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were 45.5 and 47.6%, respectively, and the specificity was 100%. Amplicor-M had better predictive accuracy than Lumipulse-Ag in 2-week disappearance tests because it had better sensitivity. On the other hand, estimates of kinetic parameters were similar regardless of the detection method. Although the correlations between Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were good both before and 24 h after IFN administration, HCV core Ag seemed to be relatively lower 24 h after IFN administration than before administration. Lumipulse-Ag seems to be useful for detecting the HCV concentration during IFN therapy; however, we still need to understand the characteristics of the assay.

Cost-effectiveness of prucalopride in the treatment of chronic constipation in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark J. C.; Dubois, Dominique J.; Joseph, Alain; Annemans, Lieven

2015-01-01

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of prucalopride vs. continued laxative treatment for chronic constipation in patients in the Netherlands in whom laxatives have failed to provide adequate relief. Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of prucalopride in patients with chronic constipation receiving standard laxative treatment from the perspective of Dutch payers in 2011. Data sources included published prucalopride clinical trials, published Dutch price/tariff lists, and national population statistics. The model simulated the clinical and economic outcomes associated with prucalopride vs. standard treatment and had a cycle length of 1 month and a follow-up time of 1 year. Response to treatment was defined as the proportion of patients who achieved “normal bowel function”. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the base case. Results: In the base case analysis, the cost of prucalopride relative to continued laxative treatment was € 9015 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Extensive sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses confirmed that the base case cost-effectiveness estimate was robust. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the model was most sensitive in response to prucalopride; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from € 6475 to 15,380 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that there is a greater than 80% probability that prucalopride would be cost-effective compared with continued standard treatment, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of € 20,000 per QALY from a Dutch societal perspective. A scenario analysis was performed for women only, which resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of € 7773 per QALY. Conclusion: Prucalopride was cost-effective in a Dutch patient population, as well as in a women-only subgroup, who had chronic constipation and who obtained inadequate relief from laxatives. PMID:25926794

Effects of variations of stage and flux at different frequencies on the estimates using river stage tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. L.; Yeh, T. C. J.; Wen, J. C.

2017-12-01

This study is to investigate the ability of river stage tomography to estimate the spatial distribution of hydraulic transmissivity (T), storage coefficient (S), and diffusivity (D) in groundwater basins using information of groundwater level variations induced by periodic variations of stream stage, and infiltrated flux from the stream boundary. In order to accomplish this objective, the sensitivity and correlation of groundwater heads with respect to the hydraulic properties is first conducted to investigate the spatial characteristics of groundwater level in response to the stream variations at different frequencies. Results of the analysis show that the spatial distributions of the sensitivity of heads at an observation well in response to periodic river stage variations are highly correlated despite different frequencies. On the other hand, the spatial patterns of the sensitivity of the observed head to river flux boundaries at different frequencies are different. Specifically, the observed head is highly correlated with T at the region between the stream and observation well when the high-frequency periodic flux is considered. On the other hand, it is highly correlated with T at the region between monitoring well and the boundary opposite to the stream when the low-frequency periodic flux is prescribed to the stream. We also find that the spatial distributions of the sensitivity of observed head to S variation are highly correlated with all frequencies in spite of heads or fluxes stream boundary. Subsequently, the differences of the spatial correlations of the observed heads to the hydraulic properties under the head and flux boundary conditions are further investigated by an inverse model (i.e., successive stochastic linear estimator). This investigation uses noise-free groundwater and stream data of a synthetic aquifer, where aquifer heterogeneity is known exactly. The ability of river stage tomography is then tested with these synthetic data sets to estimate T, S, and D distribution. The results reveal that boundary flux variations with different frequencies contain different information about the aquifer characteristics while the head boundary does not.

Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

2014-12-01

While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased water-use efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conley, A. J.; Westervelt, D. M.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Fiore, A. M.; Shindell, D.; Correa, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.

2018-03-01

Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multicentury perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature changes are estimated. In spite of a temperature drift in the control and large internal variability, 200 year simulations yield statistically significant regional surface temperature responses to the removal of U.S. SO2 emissions. Both local and remote surface temperature changes occur in all models, and the patterns of changes are similar between models for northern hemisphere land regions. We find a global average temperature sensitivity to U.S. SO2 emissions of 0.0055 K per Tg(SO2) per year with a range of (0.0036, 0.0078). We examine global and regional responses in SO4 burdens, aerosol optical depths (AODs), and effective radiative forcing (ERF). While changes in AOD and ERF are concentrated near the source region (United States), the temperature response is spread over the northern hemisphere with amplification of the temperature increase toward the Arctic. In all models, we find a significant response of dust concentrations, which affects the AOD but has no obvious effect on surface temperature. Temperature sensitivity to the ERF of U.S. SO2 emissions is found to differ from the models' sensitivity to radiative forcing of doubled CO2.

Systematic parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis using a multidimensional PEMFC model coupled with DAKOTA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chao Yang; Luo, Gang; Jiang, Fangming

2010-05-01

Current computational models for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) include a large number of parameters such as boundary conditions, material properties, and numerous parameters used in sub-models for membrane transport, two-phase flow and electrochemistry. In order to successfully use a computational PEMFC model in design and optimization, it is important to identify critical parameters under a wide variety of operating conditions, such as relative humidity, current load, temperature, etc. Moreover, when experimental data is available in the form of polarization curves or local distribution of current and reactant/product species (e.g., O2, H2O concentrations), critical parameters can be estimated inmore » order to enable the model to better fit the data. Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation are typically performed using manual adjustment of parameters, which is also common in parameter studies. We present work to demonstrate a systematic approach based on using a widely available toolkit developed at Sandia called DAKOTA that supports many kinds of design studies, such as sensitivity analysis as well as optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the present work, we couple a multidimensional PEMFC model (which is being developed, tested and later validated in a joint effort by a team from Penn State Univ. and Sandia National Laboratories) with DAKOTA through the mapping of model parameters to system responses. Using this interface, we demonstrate the efficiency of performing simple parameter studies as well as identifying critical parameters using sensitivity analysis. Finally, we show examples of optimization and parameter estimation using the automated capability in DAKOTA.« less

A Role for MST Neurons in Heading Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, L. S.; Perrone, J. A.

1994-01-01

A template model of human visual self-motion perception, which uses neurophysiologically realistic "heading detectors", is consistent with numerous human psychophysical results including the failure of humans to estimate their heading (direction of forward translation) accurately under certain visual conditions. We tested the model detectors with stimuli used by others in single-unit studies. The detectors showed emergent properties similar to those of MST neurons: (1) Sensitivity to non-preferred flow; Each detector is tuned to a specific combination of flow components and its response is systematically reduced by the addition of nonpreferred flow, and (2) Position invariance; The detectors maintain their apparent preference for particular flow components over large regions of their receptive fields. It has been argued that this latter property is incompatible with MST playing a role in heading perception. The model however demonstrates how neurons with the above response properties could still support accurate heading estimation within extrastriate cortical maps.

On the limits of Kagan's impulsive reflective distinction.

PubMed

Jones, B; McIntyre, L

1976-05-01

A logical analysis is made of the Matching Familiar Figures (MFF) Test on the basis of which children have been classified as "impulsive" or "reflective." The reflective strategy is implicitly preferred to the impulsive because the reflective child makes fewer errors though generally taking longer to make his first response. We show that the test allows the choice of a number of "game plans" and speed-accuracy tradeoffs which in practice may not be very different. Error rates may not indicate perceptual sensitivity, in any case, since sensitivity and response factors may be confounded in the error rate. Using a visual running-memory-span task to avoid the inherent difficulties of the MFF test, we found that children previously classified on the basis of that test as impulsive or reflective did not differ in recognition accuracy but did differ in response bias and response latency. Accuracy and bias are estimated by way of Luce's choice theory (Luce, 1963), and the results are discussed in those terms.

Annualized earthquake loss estimates for California and their sensitivity to site amplification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Rui; Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, D; Seligson, H; Wills, C.J.

2016-01-01

Input datasets for annualized earthquake loss (AEL) estimation for California were updated recently by the scientific community, and include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), site‐response model, and estimates of shear‐wave velocity. Additionally, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s loss estimation tool, Hazus, was updated to include the most recent census and economic exposure data. These enhancements necessitated a revisit to our previous AEL estimates and a study of the sensitivity of AEL estimates subjected to alternate inputs for site amplification. The NSHM ground motions for a uniform site condition are modified to account for the effect of local near‐surface geology. The site conditions are approximated in three ways: (1) by VS30 (time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m) value obtained from a geology‐ and topography‐based map consisting of 15 VS30 groups, (2) by site classes categorized according to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classification, and (3) by a uniform NEHRP site class D. In case 1, ground motions are amplified using the Seyhan and Stewart (2014) semiempirical nonlinear amplification model. In cases 2 and 3, ground motions are amplified using the 2014 version of the NEHRP site amplification factors, which are also based on the Seyhan and Stewart model but are approximated to facilitate their use for building code applications. Estimated AELs are presented at multiple resolutions, starting with the state level assessment and followed by detailed assessments for counties, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and cities. AEL estimate at the state level is ∼$3.7  billion, 70% of which is contributed from Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, and Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario MSAs. The statewide AEL estimate is insensitive to alternate assumptions of site amplification. However, we note significant differences in AEL estimates among the three sensitivity cases for smaller geographic units.

A comparison of underwater hearing sensitivity in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) determined by electrophysiological and behavioral methods.

PubMed

Houser, Dorian S; Finneran, James J

2006-09-01

Variable stimulus presentation methods are used in auditory evoked potential (AEP) estimates of cetacean hearing sensitivity, each of which might affect stimulus reception and hearing threshold estimates. This study quantifies differences in underwater hearing thresholds obtained by AEP and behavioral means. For AEP estimates, a transducer embedded in a suction cup (jawphone) was coupled to the dolphin's lower jaw for stimulus presentation. Underwater AEP thresholds were obtained for three dolphins in San Diego Bay and for one dolphin in a quiet pool. Thresholds were estimated from the envelope following response at carrier frequencies ranging from 10 to 150 kHz. One animal, with an atypical audiogram, demonstrated significantly greater hearing loss in the right ear than in the left. Across test conditions, the range and average difference between AEP and behavioral threshold estimates were consistent with published comparisons between underwater behavioral and in-air AEP thresholds. AEP thresholds for one animal obtained in-air and in a quiet pool demonstrated a range of differences of -10 to 9 dB (mean = 3 dB). Results suggest that for the frequencies tested, the presentation of sound stimuli through a jawphone, underwater and in-air, results in acceptable differences to AEP threshold estimates.

Constraining cloud responses to CO2 and warming in climate models: physical and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, S. C.; Fuchs, D.; Bony, S.; Jean-Louis, D.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Using the Web to Collect Data on Sensitive Behaviours: A Study Looking at Mode Effects on the British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles

PubMed Central

Burkill, Sarah; Copas, Andrew; Couper, Mick P.; Clifton, Soazig; Prah, Philip; Datta, Jessica; Conrad, Frederick; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M.; Erens, Bob

2016-01-01

Background Interviewer-administered surveys are an important method of collecting population-level epidemiological data, but suffer from declining response rates and increasing costs. Web surveys offer more rapid data collection and lower costs. There are concerns, however, about data quality from web surveys. Previous research has largely focused on selection biases, and few have explored measurement differences. This paper aims to assess the extent to which mode affects the responses given by the same respondents at two points in time, providing information on potential measurement error if web surveys are used in the future. Methods 527 participants from the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3), which uses computer assisted personal interview (CAPI) and self-interview (CASI) modes, subsequently responded to identically-worded questions in a web survey. McNemar tests assessed whether within-person differences in responses were at random or indicated a mode effect, i.e. higher reporting of more sensitive responses in one mode. An analysis of pooled responses by generalized estimating equations addressed the impact of gender and question type on change. Results Only 10% of responses changed between surveys. However mode effects were found for about a third of variables, with higher reporting of sensitive responses more commonly found on the web compared with Natsal-3. Conclusions The web appears a promising mode for surveys of sensitive behaviours, most likely as part of a mixed-mode design. Our findings suggest that mode effects may vary by question type and content, and by the particular mix of modes used. Mixed-mode surveys need careful development to understand mode effects and how to account for them. PMID:26866687

Smokers’ Strategic Responses to Sin Taxes: Evidence from Panel Data in Thailand

PubMed Central

White, Justin S.; Ross, Hana

2014-01-01

In addition to quitting and cutting consumption, smokers faced with higher cigarette prices may compensate in several ways that mute the health impact of cigarette taxes. This study examines three price avoidance strategies among adult male smokers in Thailand: trading down to a lower-priced brand, buying individual sticks of cigarettes instead of packs, and substituting roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco for factory-manufactured cigarettes. Using two panels of microlevel data from the International Tobacco Control Southeast Asia Study, collected in 2005 and 2006, we estimate the effects of a substantial excise tax increase implemented throughout Thailand in December 2005. We present estimates of the marginal effects and price elasticities for each of five consumer behaviors. We find that, controlling for baseline smoking characteristics, socio-demographics, and policy variables, quitting is highly sensitive to changes in cigarette prices, but so are brand choice, stick-buying, and use of RYO tobacco. Neglecting such strategic responses leads to over-estimates of a sin tax’s health impact, and neglecting product substitution distorts estimates of the price elasticity of cigarette demand. We discuss the implications for consumer welfare and several policies that mitigate the adverse impact of consumer responses. PMID:24677731

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

High mass resolution time of flight mass spectrometer for measuring products in heterogeneous catalysis in highly sensitive microreactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andersen, T.; Jensen, R.; Christensen, M. K.

2012-07-15

We demonstrate a combined microreactor and time of flight system for testing and characterization of heterogeneous catalysts with high resolution mass spectrometry and high sensitivity. Catalyst testing is performed in silicon-based microreactors which have high sensitivity and fast thermal response. Gas analysis is performed with a time of flight mass spectrometer with a modified nude Bayard-Alpert ionization gauge as gas ionization source. The mass resolution of the time of flight mass spectrometer using the ion gauge as ionization source is estimated to m/{Delta}m > 2500. The system design is superior to conventional batch and flow reactors with accompanying product detectionmore » by quadrupole mass spectrometry or gas chromatography not only due to the high sensitivity, fast temperature response, high mass resolution, and fast acquisition time of mass spectra but it also allows wide mass range (0-5000 amu in the current configuration). As a demonstration of the system performance we present data from ammonia oxidation on a Pt thin film showing resolved spectra of OH and NH{sub 3}.« less

High mass resolution time of flight mass spectrometer for measuring products in heterogeneous catalysis in highly sensitive microreactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, T.; Jensen, R.; Christensen, M. K.; Pedersen, T.; Hansen, O.; Chorkendorff, I.

2012-07-01

We demonstrate a combined microreactor and time of flight system for testing and characterization of heterogeneous catalysts with high resolution mass spectrometry and high sensitivity. Catalyst testing is performed in silicon-based microreactors which have high sensitivity and fast thermal response. Gas analysis is performed with a time of flight mass spectrometer with a modified nude Bayard-Alpert ionization gauge as gas ionization source. The mass resolution of the time of flight mass spectrometer using the ion gauge as ionization source is estimated to m/Δm > 2500. The system design is superior to conventional batch and flow reactors with accompanying product detection by quadrupole mass spectrometry or gas chromatography not only due to the high sensitivity, fast temperature response, high mass resolution, and fast acquisition time of mass spectra but it also allows wide mass range (0-5000 amu in the current configuration). As a demonstration of the system performance we present data from ammonia oxidation on a Pt thin film showing resolved spectra of OH and NH3.

High mass resolution time of flight mass spectrometer for measuring products in heterogeneous catalysis in highly sensitive microreactors.

PubMed

Andersen, T; Jensen, R; Christensen, M K; Pedersen, T; Hansen, O; Chorkendorff, I

2012-07-01

We demonstrate a combined microreactor and time of flight system for testing and characterization of heterogeneous catalysts with high resolution mass spectrometry and high sensitivity. Catalyst testing is performed in silicon-based microreactors which have high sensitivity and fast thermal response. Gas analysis is performed with a time of flight mass spectrometer with a modified nude Bayard-Alpert ionization gauge as gas ionization source. The mass resolution of the time of flight mass spectrometer using the ion gauge as ionization source is estimated to m/Δm > 2500. The system design is superior to conventional batch and flow reactors with accompanying product detection by quadrupole mass spectrometry or gas chromatography not only due to the high sensitivity, fast temperature response, high mass resolution, and fast acquisition time of mass spectra but it also allows wide mass range (0-5000 amu in the current configuration). As a demonstration of the system performance we present data from ammonia oxidation on a Pt thin film showing resolved spectra of OH and NH(3).

Killer whale (Orcinus orca) hearing: auditory brainstem response and behavioral audiograms.

PubMed

Szymanski, M D; Bain, D E; Kiehl, K; Pennington, S; Wong, S; Henry, K R

1999-08-01

Killer whale (Orcinus orca) audiograms were measured using behavioral responses and auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) from two trained adult females. The mean auditory brainstem response (ABR) audiogram to tones between 1 and 100 kHz was 12 dB (re 1 mu Pa) less sensitive than behavioral audiograms from the same individuals (+/- 8 dB). The ABR and behavioral audiogram curves had shapes that were generally consistent and had the best threshold agreement (5 dB) in the most sensitive range 18-42 kHz, and the least (22 dB) at higher frequencies 60-100 kHz. The most sensitive frequency in the mean Orcinus audiogram was 20 kHz (36 dB), a frequency lower than many other odontocetes, but one that matches peak spectral energy reported for wild killer whale echolocation clicks. A previously reported audiogram of a male Orcinus had greatest sensitivity in this range (15 kHz, approximately 35 dB). Both whales reliably responded to 100-kHz tones (95 dB), and one whale to a 120-kHz tone, a variation from an earlier reported high-frequency limit of 32 kHz for a male Orcinus. Despite smaller amplitude ABRs than smaller delphinids, the results demonstrated that ABR audiometry can provide a useful suprathreshold estimate of hearing range in toothed whales.

A collision history-based approach to Sensitivity/Perturbation calculations in the continuous energy Monte Carlo code SERPENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giuseppe Palmiotti

In this work, the implementation of a collision history-based approach to sensitivity/perturbation calculations in the Monte Carlo code SERPENT is discussed. The proposed methods allow the calculation of the eects of nuclear data perturbation on several response functions: the eective multiplication factor, reaction rate ratios and bilinear ratios (e.g., eective kinetics parameters). SERPENT results are compared to ERANOS and TSUNAMI Generalized Perturbation Theory calculations for two fast metallic systems and for a PWR pin-cell benchmark. New methods for the calculation of sensitivities to angular scattering distributions are also presented, which adopts fully continuous (in energy and angle) Monte Carlo estimators.

Evaluating alternative approaches to modeling terrestrial C and N interactions using observations of ecosystem response to nitrogen deposition and experimental fertilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Bonan, G. B.; Goodale, C. L.

2012-12-01

In many forest ecosystems, nitrogen deposition is increasing carbon storage and reducing climate warming from fossil fuel emissions. Accurately modeling the forest carbon sequestration response to elevated nitrogen deposition using global biogeochemical models coupled to climate models is therefore important. Here, we use observations of the forest carbon response to both nitrogen fertilization experiments and nitrogen deposition gradients to test and improve a global biogeochemical model (CLM-CN 4.0). We introduce a series of model modifications to the CLM-CN that 1) creates a more closed nitrogen cycle with reduced nitrogen fixation and N gas loss and 2) includes buffering of plant nitrogen uptake and buffering of soil nitrogen available for plants and microbial processes. Overall, the modifications improved the comparison of the model predictions to the observational data by increasing the carbon storage response to historical nitrogen deposition (1850-2004) in temperate forest ecosystems by 144% and reducing the response to nitrogen fertilization. The increased sensitivity to nitrogen deposition was primarily attributable to greater retention of nitrogen deposition in the ecosystem and a greater role of synergy between nitrogen deposition and rising atmospheric CO2. Based on our results, we suggest that nitrogen retention should be an important attribute investigated in model inter-comparisons. To understand the specific ecosystem processes that contribute to the sensitivity of carbon storage to nitrogen deposition, we examined sensitivity to nitrogen deposition in a set of intermediary models that isolate the key differences in model structure between the CLM-CN 4.0 and the modified version. We demonstrate that the nitrogen deposition response was most sensitive to the implementation of a more closed nitrogen cycle and buffered plant uptake of soil mineral nitrogen, and less sensitive to modifications of the canopy scaling of photosynthesis, soil buffering of available nitrogen, and plant buffering of labile nitrogen. By comparing carbon storage sensitivity to observational data from both nitrogen deposition gradients and nitrogen fertilization experiments, we show different observed estimates of sensitivity between these two approaches could be explained by differences in the magnitude and time-scale of nitrogen additions.

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Simulating smoke transport from wildland fires with a regional-scale air quality model: sensitivity to spatiotemporal allocation of fire emissions.

PubMed

Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Hu, Yongtao; Odman, Mehmet T

2014-09-15

Air quality forecasts generated with chemical transport models can provide valuable information about the potential impacts of fires on pollutant levels. However, significant uncertainties are associated with fire-related emission estimates as well as their distribution on gridded modeling domains. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of fine particulate matter concentrations predicted by a regional-scale air quality model to the spatial and temporal allocation of fire emissions. The assessment was completed by simulating a fire-related smoke episode in which air quality throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area was affected on February 28, 2007. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to evaluate the significance of emission distribution among the model's vertical layers, along the horizontal plane, and into hourly inputs. Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were highly sensitive to emission injection altitude relative to planetary boundary layer height. Simulations were also responsive to the horizontal allocation of fire emissions and their distribution into single or multiple grid cells. Additionally, modeled concentrations were greatly sensitive to the temporal distribution of fire-related emissions. The analyses demonstrate that, in addition to adequate estimates of emitted mass, successfully modeling the impacts of fires on air quality depends on an accurate spatiotemporal allocation of emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Renal sympathetic nerve activity measured by norepinephrine spillover rate in response to changes in blood pressure in conscious rabbits.

PubMed

Sano, N; Way, D; McGrath, B P

1989-04-01

1. Renal sympathetic nerve activity (RSNA) in response to changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP) was examined by measuring renal norepinephrine (NE) spillover rate in conscious rabbits. 2. A chronic renal vein catheter was implanted for sampling renal venous blood without stress in conscious animals. 3. RSNA estimated by renal NE spillover rate significantly increased in response to moderate falls in MAP produced by sodium nitroprusside (SNP) infusion and decreased in response to moderate rises in MAP produced by phenylephrine (PE) infusion. 4. The NE spillover method is sufficiently sensitive to detect responses of RSNA to physiological stimuli in conscious rabbits.

Sensitivity Analysis for some Water Pollution Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Dimet, François-Xavier; Tran Thu, Ha; Hussaini, Yousuff

2014-05-01

Sensitivity Analysis for Some Water Pollution Problems Francois-Xavier Le Dimet1 & Tran Thu Ha2 & M. Yousuff Hussaini3 1Université de Grenoble, France, 2Vietnamese Academy of Sciences, 3 Florida State University Sensitivity analysis employs some response function and the variable with respect to which its sensitivity is evaluated. If the state of the system is retrieved through a variational data assimilation process, then the observation appears only in the Optimality System (OS). In many cases, observations have errors and it is important to estimate their impact. Therefore, sensitivity analysis has to be carried out on the OS, and in that sense sensitivity analysis is a second order property. The OS can be considered as a generalized model because it contains all the available information. This presentation proposes a method to carry out sensitivity analysis in general. The method is demonstrated with an application to water pollution problem. The model involves shallow waters equations and an equation for the pollutant concentration. These equations are discretized using a finite volume method. The response function depends on the pollutant source, and its sensitivity with respect to the source term of the pollutant is studied. Specifically, we consider: • Identification of unknown parameters, and • Identification of sources of pollution and sensitivity with respect to the sources. We also use a Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman Filter to study this problem. The presentation includes a comparison of the results from these two methods. .

The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance.

PubMed

Kepes, Sven; McDaniel, Michael A

2015-01-01

Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.

The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Introduction Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. Methods To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Results Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. Conclusion The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation. PMID:26517553

On the measurement of pilot perceptual workload - A comparison of assessment techniques addressing sensitivity and intrusion issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casali, J. G.; Wierwille, W. W.

1984-01-01

A flight simulator-based study was conducted to examine fourteen distinct mental workload estimation measures, including opinion, secondary task, physiological, and primary task measures. Both the relative sensitivity of the measures to changes in mental workload and the differential intrusion of the changes on primary task performance were assessed. The flight task was varied in difficulty by manipulation of the presentation rate and complexity of a hazard-perception task that required each of 48 licensed pilots to rely heavily on their perceptual abilities. Three rating scales (Modified Cooper-Harper, Multi-descriptor, and Workload-Compensation-Interference/Technical Effectiveness), two secondary task measures (time estimation and tapping regularity), one physiological measure (respiration frequency), and one primary task measure (danger-condition response time) were reliable indicants of workload changes. Recommendations for applying the workload measures are presented.

Field camera measurements of gradient and shim impulse responses using frequency sweeps.

PubMed

Vannesjo, S Johanna; Dietrich, Benjamin E; Pavan, Matteo; Brunner, David O; Wilm, Bertram J; Barmet, Christoph; Pruessmann, Klaas P

2014-08-01

Applications of dynamic shimming require high field fidelity, and characterizing the shim field dynamics is therefore necessary. Modeling the system as linear and time-invariant, the purpose of this work was to measure the impulse response function with optimal sensitivity. Frequency-swept pulses as inputs are analyzed theoretically, showing that the sweep speed is a key factor for the measurement sensitivity. By adjusting the sweep speed it is possible to achieve any prescribed noise profile in the measured system response. Impulse response functions were obtained for the third-order shim system of a 7 Tesla whole-body MR scanner. Measurements of the shim fields were done with a dynamic field camera, yielding also cross-term responses. The measured shim impulse response functions revealed system characteristics such as response bandwidth, eddy currents and specific resonances, possibly of mechanical origin. Field predictions based on the shim characterization were shown to agree well with directly measured fields, also in the cross-terms. Frequency sweeps provide a flexible tool for shim or gradient system characterization. This may prove useful for applications involving dynamic shimming by yielding accurate estimates of the shim fields and a basis for setting shim pre-emphasis. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Amos P. K.; Val Martin, Maria

2017-11-01

Ozone air pollution and climate change pose major threats to global crop production, with ramifications for future food security. Previous studies of ozone and warming impacts on crops typically do not account for the strong ozone-temperature correlation when interpreting crop-ozone or crop-temperature relationships, or the spatial variability of crop-to-ozone sensitivity arising from varietal and environmental differences, leading to potential biases in their estimated crop losses. Here we develop an empirical model, called the partial derivative-linear regression (PDLR) model, to estimate the spatial variations in the sensitivities of wheat, maize and soybean yields to ozone exposures and temperature extremes in the US and Europe using a composite of multidecadal datasets, fully correcting for ozone-temperature covariation. We find generally larger and more spatially varying sensitivities of all three crops to ozone exposures than are implied by experimentally derived concentration-response functions used in most previous studies. Stronger ozone tolerance is found in regions with high ozone levels and high consumptive crop water use, reflecting the existence of spatial adaptation and effect of water constraints. The spatially varying sensitivities to temperature extremes also indicate stronger heat tolerance in crops grown in warmer regions. The spatial adaptation of crops to ozone and temperature we find can serve as a surrogate for future adaptation. Using the PDLR-derived sensitivities and 2000-2050 ozone and temperature projections by the Community Earth System Model, we estimate that future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution can combine to cause an average decline in US wheat, maize and soybean production by 13%, 43% and 28%, respectively, and a smaller decline for European crops. Aggressive ozone regulation is shown to offset such decline to various extents, especially for wheat. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ozone regulation as well as ozone and climate change adaptation (e.g., selecting heat- and ozone-tolerant cultivars, irrigation) as possible strategies to enhance future food security in response to imminent environmental threats.

Short-Term Genetic Selection for Adolescent Locomotor Sensitivity to Delta9-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC).

PubMed

Kasten, Chelsea R; Zhang, Yanping; Mackie, Ken; Boehm, Stephen L

2018-05-01

Cannabis use is linked to positive and negative outcomes. Identifying genetic targets of susceptibility to the negative effects of cannabinoid use is of growing importance. The current study sought to complete short-term selective breeding for adolescent sensitivity and resistance to the locomotor effects of a single 10 mg/kg THC dose in the open field. Selection for THC-locomotor sensitivity was moderately heritable, with the greatest estimates of heritability seen in females from the F2 to S3 generations. Selection for locomotor sensitivity also resulted in increased anxiety-like activity in the open field. These results are the first to indicate that adolescent THC-locomotor sensitivity can be influenced via selective breeding. Development of lines with a genetic predisposition for THC-sensitivity or resistance to locomotor effects allow for investigation of risk factors, differences in consequences of THC use, identification of correlated behavioral responses, and detection of genetic targets that may contribute to heightened cannabinoid sensitivity.

Visual resolution and contrast sensitivity in two benthic sharks.

PubMed

Ryan, Laura A; Hart, Nathan S; Collin, Shaun P; Hemmi, Jan M

2016-12-15

Sharks have long been described as having 'poor' vision. They are cone monochromats and anatomical estimates suggest they have low spatial resolution. However, there are no direct behavioural measurements of spatial resolution or contrast sensitivity. This study estimates contrast sensitivity and spatial resolution of two species of benthic sharks, the Port Jackson shark, Heterodontus portusjacksoni, and the brown-banded bamboo shark, Chiloscyllium punctatum, by recording eye movements in response to optokinetic stimuli. Both species tracked moving low spatial frequency gratings with weak but consistent eye movements. Eye movements ceased at 0.38 cycles per degree, even for high contrasts, suggesting low spatial resolution. However, at lower spatial frequencies, eye movements were elicited by low contrast gratings, 1.3% and 2.9% contrast in H portusjacksoni and C. punctatum, respectively. Contrast sensitivity was higher than in other vertebrates with a similar spatial resolving power, which may reflect an adaptation to the relatively low contrast encountered in aquatic environments. Optokinetic gain was consistently low and neither species stabilised the gratings on their retina. To check whether restraining the animals affected their optokinetic responses, we also analysed eye movements in free-swimming C. punctatum We found no eye movements that could compensate for body rotations, suggesting that vision may pass through phases of stabilisation and blur during swimming. As C. punctatum is a sedentary benthic species, gaze stabilisation during swimming may not be essential. Our results suggest that vision in sharks is not 'poor' as previously suggested, but optimised for contrast detection rather than spatial resolution. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

Estimation of reflectance from camera responses by the regularized local linear model.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei-Feng; Tang, Gongguo; Dai, Dao-Qing; Nehorai, Arye

2011-10-01

Because of the limited approximation capability of using fixed basis functions, the performance of reflectance estimation obtained by traditional linear models will not be optimal. We propose an approach based on the regularized local linear model. Our approach performs efficiently and knowledge of the spectral power distribution of the illuminant and the spectral sensitivities of the camera is not needed. Experimental results show that the proposed method performs better than some well-known methods in terms of both reflectance error and colorimetric error. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Sensitivity of drainage morphometry based hydrological response (GIUH) of a river basin to the spatial resolution of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Ramendra; Jain, Vikrant

2018-02-01

Drainage network pattern and its associated morphometric ratios are some of the important plan form attributes of a drainage basin. Extraction of these attributes for any basin is usually done by spatial analysis of the elevation data of that basin. These planform attributes are further used as input data for studying numerous process-response interactions inside the physical premise of the basin. One of the important uses of the morphometric ratios is its usage in the derivation of hydrologic response of a basin using GIUH concept. Hence, accuracy of the basin hydrological response to any storm event depends upon the accuracy with which, the morphometric ratios can be estimated. This in turn, is affected by the spatial resolution of the source data, i.e. the digital elevation model (DEM). We have estimated the sensitivity of the morphometric ratios and the GIUH derived hydrograph parameters, to the resolution of source data using a 30 meter and a 90 meter DEM. The analysis has been carried out for 50 drainage basins in a mountainous catchment. A simple and comprehensive algorithm has been developed for estimation of the morphometric indices from a stream network. We have calculated all the morphometric parameters and the hydrograph parameters for each of these basins extracted from two different DEMs, with different spatial resolutions. Paired t-test and Sign test were used for the comparison. Our results didn't show any statistically significant difference among any of the parameters calculated from the two source data. Along with the comparative study, a first-hand empirical analysis about the frequency distribution of the morphometric and hydrologic response parameters has also been communicated. Further, a comparison with other hydrological models suggests that plan form morphometry based GIUH model is more consistent with resolution variability in comparison to topographic based hydrological model.

Acoustic method of investigating the material properties and humidity sensing behavior of polymer coated piezoelectric substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caliendo, Cinzia

2006-09-01

The relative humidity (RH) sensing behavior of a polymeric film was investigated by means of polymer coated surface acoustic wave (SAW) delay lines implemented on single crystal piezoelectric substrates, such as quartz and LiNbO3, and on thin piezoelectric polycrystalline films, such as ZnO and AlN, on Si and GaAs. The same SAW delay line configuration was implemented on each substrate and the obtained devices' operating frequency was in the range of 105-156MHz, depending on the type of the substrate, on its crystallographic orientation, and on the SAW propagation direction. The surface of each SAW device was covered by the same type RH sensitive film of the same thickness and the RH sensitivity of each polymer coated substrate, i.e., the SAW relative phase velocity shift per RH unit changes, was investigated in the 0%—80% RH range. The perturbational approach was used to relate the SAW sensor velocity response to the RH induced changes in the physical parameters of the sensitive polymer film: the incremental change in the mass density and shear modulus of the polymer film per unit RH change were estimated. The shift of the bare SAW delay lines operating frequency induced by the presence of the polymer film, at RH =0% and at T =-10°C, allowed the experimental estimation of the mass sensitivity values of each substrate. These values were in good accordance with those reported in the literature and with those theoretically evaluated by exact numerical calculation. The shift of the bare SAW delay lines propagation loss induced by the polymer coating of the device surface, at RH =0% and at ambient temperature, allowed the experimental estimation of the elastic sensitivity of each substrate. These values were found in good accordance with those available from the literature. The temperature coefficient of delay and the electromechanical coupling coefficient of the bare substrates were also estimated. The membrane sensitivity to ethanol, methanol and isopropylic alcohol was tested by means of a high-frequency (670MHz) high-sensitivity Si /AlN resonator sensor.

Interoceptive sensitivity predicts sensitivity to the emotions of others.

PubMed

Terasawa, Yuri; Moriguchi, Yoshiya; Tochizawa, Saiko; Umeda, Satoshi

2014-01-01

Some theories of emotion emphasise a close relationship between interoception and subjective experiences of emotion. In this study, we used facial expressions to examine whether interoceptive sensibility modulated emotional experience in a social context. Interoceptive sensibility was measured using the heartbeat detection task. To estimate individual emotional sensitivity, we made morphed photos that ranged between a neutral and an emotional facial expression (i.e., anger, sadness, disgust and happy). Recognition rates of particular emotions from these photos were calculated and considered as emotional sensitivity thresholds. Our results indicate that participants with accurate interoceptive awareness are sensitive to the emotions of others, especially for expressions of sadness and happy. We also found that false responses to sad faces were closely related with an individual's degree of social anxiety. These results suggest that interoceptive awareness modulates the intensity of the subjective experience of emotion and affects individual traits related to emotion processing.

Physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and estimated insulin sensitivity and secretion in pregnant and non-pregnant women

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Overweight and obesity during pregnancy raise the risk of gestational diabetes and birth complications. Lifestyle factors like physical activity may decrease these risks through beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis. Here we examined physical activity patterns and their relationships with measures of glucose homeostasis in late pregnancy compared to non-pregnant women. Methods Normal weight and overweight women without diabetes (N = 108; aged 25-35 years) were studied; 35 were pregnant (in gestational weeks 28-32) and 73 were non-pregnant. Insulin sensitivity and β-cell response were estimated from an oral glucose tolerance test. Physical activity was measured during 10-days of free-living using a combined heart rate sensor and accelerometer. Total (TEE), resting (REE), and physical activity (PAEE) energy expenditure were measured using doubly-labeled water and expired gas indirect calorimetry. Results Total activity was associated with reduced first-phase insulin response in both pregnant (Regression r2 = 0.11; Spearman r = -0.47; p = 0.007) and non-pregnant women (Regression r2 = 0.11 Spearman; r = -0.36; p = 0.002). Relative to non-pregnant women, pregnant women were estimated to have secreted 67% more insulin and had 10% lower fasting glucose than non-pregnant women. Pregnant women spent 13% more time sedentary, 71% less time in moderate-to-vigorous intensity activity, had 44% lower objectively measured total activity, and 12% lower PAEE than non-pregnant women. Correlations did not differ significantly for any comparison between physical activity subcomponents and measures of insulin sensitivity or secretion. Conclusions Our findings suggest that physical activity conveys similar benefits on glucose homeostasis in pregnant and non-pregnant women, despite differences in subcomponents of physical activity. PMID:21679399

A Sensitivity-Based Approach to Quantifying the Costs of Weather and Climate Impacts: A Case Study of the Southern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority Adaptation Pilot Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casola, J.; Johanson, E.; Groth, P.; Snow, C.; Choate, A.

2012-12-01

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), with support from the Federal Transit Administration, has been investigating its agency's vulnerability to weather-related disruption and damages as a way to inform an overall adaptation strategy for climate variability and change. Exploiting daily rail service records maintained by SEPTA and observations from nearby weather stations, we have developed a methodology for quantifying the sensitivity of SEPTA's Manayunk/Norristown rail line to various weather events (e.g., snow storms, heat waves, heavy rainfall and flooding, tropical storms). For each type of event, sensitivity is equated to the frequency and extent of service disruptions associated with the event, and includes the identification of thresholds beyond which impacts are observed. In addition, we have estimated the monetary costs associated with repair and replacement of infrastructure following these events. Our results have facilitated discussions with SEPTA operational staff, who have outlined the institutional aspects of their preparation and response processes for these weather events. We envision the methodology as being useful for resource and infrastructure managers across the public and private sector, and potentially scalable to smaller or larger operations. There are several advantageous aspects of the method: 1) the quantification of sensitivity, and the coupling of that sensitivity to cost information, provides credible input to SEPTA decision-makers as they establish the priorities and level of investment associated with their adaptation actions for addressing extreme weather; 2) the method provides a conceptual foundation for estimating the magnitude, frequency, and costs of potential future impacts at a local scale, especially with regard to heat waves; 3) the sensitivity information serves as an excellent discussion tool, enabling further research and information gathering about institutional relationships and procedures. These relationships and procedures are critical to the effectiveness of preparation for and responses to extreme weather events, but are often not explicitly documented.

Time-series analyses of air pollution and mortality in the United States: a subsampling approach.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; McClellan, Roger O; Dewanji, Anup; Turim, Jay; Luebeck, E Georg; Edwards, Melanie

2013-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian methods have been used in previous papers to estimate national mean effects of air pollutants on daily deaths in time-series analyses. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates of the common national effects of the criteria pollutants on mortality based on time-series data from ≤ 108 metropolitan areas in the United States. We used a subsampling bootstrap procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and confidence bounds for common national effects of the criteria pollutants, as measured by the percentage increase in daily mortality associated with a unit increase in daily 24-hr mean pollutant concentration on the previous day, while controlling for weather and temporal trends. We considered five pollutants [PM10, ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)] in single- and multipollutant analyses. Flexible ambient concentration-response models for the pollutant effects were considered as well. We performed limited sensitivity analyses with different degrees of freedom for time trends. In single-pollutant models, we observed significant associations of daily deaths with all pollutants. The O3 coefficient was highly sensitive to the degree of smoothing of time trends. Among the gases, SO2 and NO2 were most strongly associated with mortality. The flexible ambient concentration-response curve for O3 showed evidence of nonlinearity and a threshold at about 30 ppb. Differences between the results of our analyses and those reported from using the Bayesian approach suggest that estimates of the quantitative impact of pollutants depend on the choice of statistical approach, although results are not directly comparable because they are based on different data. In addition, the estimate of the O3-mortality coefficient depends on the amount of smoothing of time trends.

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.; Aldrin, M.; Holden, M.; Myhre, G.

2012-04-01

A key question in climate science is to quantify the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbation in the radiative forcing (RF). This sensitivity is often represented by the equilibrium climate sensitivity, but this quantity is poorly constrained with significant probabilities for high values. In this work the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is estimated based on observed near-surface temperature change from the instrumental record, changes in ocean heat content and detailed RF time series. RF time series from pre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanisms are estimated and the cloud lifetime effect and the semi-direct effect, which are not RF mechanisms in a strict sense, are included in the analysis. The RF time series are linked to the observations of ocean heat content and temperature change through an energy balance model and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS from the data. The posterior mean of the ECS is 1.9˚C with 90% credible interval (C.I.) ranging from 1.2 to 2.9˚C, which is tighter than previously published estimates. Observational data up to and including year 2010 are used in this study. This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record in attempts to constrain the ECS. We show that the additional 10 years of data, and especially 10 years of additional ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS. If only data up to and including year 2000 are used in the analysis, the 90% C.I. is 1.4 to 10.6˚C with a pronounced heavy tail in line with previous estimates of ECS constrained by observations in the 20th century. Also the transient climate response (TCR) is estimated in this study. Using observational data up to and including year 2010 gives a 90% C.I. of 1.0 to 2.1˚C, while the 90% C.I. is significantly broader ranging from 1.1 to 3.4 ˚C if only data up to and including year 2000 is used.

Groundwater discharge to wetlands driven by storm and flood events: Quantification using continuous Radon-222 and electrical conductivity measurements and dynamic mass-balance modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilfedder, B. S.; Frei, S.; Hofmann, H.; Cartwright, I.

2015-09-01

The dynamic response of groundwater discharge to external influences such as rainfall is an often neglected part of water and solute balances in wetlands. Here we develop a new field platform for long-term continuous 222Rn and electrical conductivity (EC) measurements at Sale Wetland, Australia to study the response of groundwater discharge to storm and flood events. The field measurements, combined with dynamic mass-balance modelling, demonstrate that the groundwater flux can increase from 3 to ∼20 mm d-1 following storms and up to 5 mm d-1 on the receding limb of floods. The groundwater pulses are likely produced by activation of local groundwater flow paths by water ponding on the surrounding flood plains. While 222Rn is a sensitive tracer for quantifying transient groundwater discharge, the mass-balance used to estimate fluxes is sensitive to parameterisation of gas exchange (k) with the atmosphere. Comparison of six equations for calculating k showed that, based on parameterisation of k alone, the groundwater flux estimate could vary by 58%. This work shows that neglecting transient processes will lead to errors in water and solute flux estimates based on infrequent point measurements. This could be particularly important for surface waters connected to contaminated or saline groundwater systems.

Challenges in modelling isoprene and monoterpene emission dynamics of Arctic plants: a case study from a subarctic tundra heath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jing; Schurgers, Guy; Valolahti, Hanna; Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Michelsen, Anders; Rinnan, Riikka

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at twice the global average speed, and the warming-induced increases in biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions from Arctic plants are expected to be drastic. The current global models' estimations of minimal BVOC emissions from the Arctic are based on very few observations and have been challenged increasingly by field data. This study applied a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, as a platform to investigate short-term and long-term BVOC emission responses to Arctic climate warming. Field observations in a subarctic tundra heath with long-term (13-year) warming treatments were extensively used for parameterizing and evaluating BVOC-related processes (photosynthesis, emission responses to temperature and vegetation composition). We propose an adjusted temperature (T) response curve for Arctic plants with much stronger T sensitivity than the commonly used algorithms for large-scale modelling. The simulated emission responses to 2 °C warming between the adjusted and original T response curves were evaluated against the observed warming responses (WRs) at short-term scales. Moreover, the model responses to warming by 4 and 8 °C were also investigated as a sensitivity test. The model showed reasonable agreement to the observed vegetation CO2 fluxes in the main growing season as well as day-to-day variability of isoprene and monoterpene emissions. The observed relatively high WRs were better captured by the adjusted T response curve than by the common one. During 1999-2012, the modelled annual mean isoprene and monoterpene emissions were 20 and 8 mg C m-2 yr-1, with an increase by 55 and 57 % for 2 °C summertime warming, respectively. Warming by 4 and 8 °C for the same period further elevated isoprene emission for all years, but the impacts on monoterpene emissions levelled off during the last few years. At hour-day scale, the WRs seem to be strongly impacted by canopy air T, while at the day-year scale, the WRs are a combined effect of plant functional type (PFT) dynamics and instantaneous BVOC responses to warming. The identified challenges in estimating Arctic BVOC emissions are (1) correct leaf T estimation, (2) PFT parameterization accounting for plant emission features as well as physiological responses to warming, and (3) representation of long-term vegetation changes in the past and the future.

Depth-dependence of time-lapse seismic velocity change detected by a joint interferometric analysis of vertical array data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawazaki, K.; Saito, T.; Ueno, T.; Shiomi, K.

2015-12-01

In this study, utilizing depth-sensitivity of interferometric waveforms recorded by co-located Hi-net and KiK-net sensors, we separate the responsible depth of seismic velocity change associated with the M6.3 earthquake occurred on November 22, 2014, in central Japan. The Hi-net station N.MKGH is located about 20 km northeast from the epicenter, where the seismometer is installed at the 150 m depth. At the same site, the KiK-net has two strong motion seismometers installed at the depths of 0 and 150 m. To estimate average velocity change around the N.MKGH station, we apply the stretching technique to auto-correlation function (ACF) of ambient noise recorded by the Hi-net sensor. To evaluate sensitivity of the Hi-net ACF to velocity change above and below the 150 m depth, we perform a numerical wave propagation simulation using 2-D FDM. To obtain velocity change above the 150 m depth, we measure response waveform from the depths of 150 m to 0 m by computing deconvolution function (DCF) of earthquake records obtained by the two KiK-net vertical array sensors. The background annual velocity variation is subtracted from the detected velocity change. From the KiK-net DCF records, the velocity reduction ratio above the 150 m depth is estimated to be 4.2 % and 3.1 % in the periods of 1-7 days and 7 days - 4 months after the mainshock, respectively. From the Hi-net ACF records, the velocity reduction ratio is estimated to be 2.2 % and 1.8 % in the same time periods, respectively. This difference in the estimated velocity reduction ratio is attributed to depth-dependence of the velocity change. By using the depth sensitivity obtained from the numerical simulation, we estimate the velocity reduction ratio below the 150 m depth to be lower than 1.0 % for both time periods. Thus the significant velocity reduction and recovery are observed above the 150 m depth only, which may be caused by strong ground motion of the mainshock and following healing in the shallow ground.

A Normative Data Set for the Clinical Assessment of Achromatic and Chromatic Contrast Sensitivity Using a qCSF Approach.

PubMed

Kim, Yeon Jin; Reynaud, Alexandre; Hess, Robert F; Mullen, Kathy T

2017-07-01

The measurement of achromatic sensitivity has been an important tool for monitoring subtle changes in vision as the result of disease or response to therapy. In this study, we aimed to provide a normative data set for achromatic and chromatic contrast sensitivity functions within a common cone contrast space using an abbreviated measurement approach suitable for clinical practice. In addition, we aimed to provide comparisons of achromatic and chromatic binocular summation across spatial frequency. We estimated monocular cone contrast sensitivity functions (CCSFs) using a quick Contrast Sensitivity Function (qCSF) approach for achromatic as well as isoluminant, L/M cone opponent, and S cone opponent stimuli in a healthy population of 51 subjects. We determined the binocular CCSFs for achromatic and chromatic vision to evaluate the degree of binocular summation across spatial frequency for these three different mechanisms in a subset of 20 subjects. Each data set shows consistent contrast sensitivity across the population. They highlight the extremely high cone contrast sensitivity of L/M cone opponency compared with the S-cone and achromatic responses. We also find that the two chromatic sensitivities are correlated across the healthy population. In addition, binocular summation for all mechanisms depends strongly on stimulus spatial frequency. This study, using an approach well suited to the clinic, is the first to provide a comparative normative data set for the chromatic and achromatic contrast sensitivity functions, yielding quantitative comparisons of achromatic, L/M cone opponent, and S cone opponent chromatic sensitivities as a function of spatial frequency.

SU-F-J-59: Assessment of Dose Response Distribution in Individual Human Tumor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, D; Chen, S; Krauss, D

Purpose: To fulfill precision radiotherapy via adaptive dose painting by number, voxel-by-voxel dose response or radio-sensitivity in individual human tumor needs to be determined in early treatment to guide treatment adaptation. In this study, multiple FDG PET images obtained pre- and weekly during the treatment course were utilized to determine the distribution/spectrum of dose response parameters in individual human tumors. Methods: FDG PET/CT images of 18 HN cancer patients were used in the study. Spatial parametric image of tumor metabolic ratio (dSUV) was created following voxel by voxel deformable image registration. Each voxel value in dSUV was a function ofmore » pre-treatment baseline SUV and treatment delivered dose, and used as a surrogate of tumor survival fraction (SF). Regression fitting with break points was performed using the LQ-model with tumor proliferation for the control and failure group of tumors separately. The distribution and spectrum of radiation sensitivity and growth in individual tumors were determined and evaluated. Results: Spectrum of tumor dose-sensitivity and proliferation in the controlled group was broad with α in tumor survival LQ-model from 0.17 to 0.8. It was proportional to the baseline SUV. Tlag was about 21∼25 days, and Tpot about 0.56∼1.67 days respectively. Commonly tumor voxels with high radio-sensitivity or larger α had small Tlag and Tpot. For the failure group, the radio-sensitivity α was low within 0.05 to 0.3, but did not show clear Tlag. In addition, tumor voxel radio-sensitivity could be estimated during the early treatment weeks. Conclusion: Dose response distribution with respect to radio-sensitivity and growth in individual human tumor can be determined using FDG PET imaging based tumor metabolic ratio measured in early treatment course. The discover is critical and provides a potential quantitative objective to implement tumor specific precision radiotherapy via adaptive dose painting by number.« less

An Investigation Into the Effects of Frequency Response Function Estimators on Model Updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratcliffe, M. J.; Lieven, N. A. J.

1999-03-01

Model updating is a very active research field, in which significant effort has been invested in recent years. Model updating methodologies are invariably successful when used on noise-free simulated data, but tend to be unpredictable when presented with real experimental data that are—unavoidably—corrupted with uncorrelated noise content. In the development and validation of model-updating strategies, a random zero-mean Gaussian variable is added to simulated test data to tax the updating routines more fully. This paper proposes a more sophisticated model for experimental measurement noise, and this is used in conjunction with several different frequency response function estimators, from the classical H1and H2to more refined estimators that purport to be unbiased. Finite-element model case studies, in conjunction with a genuine experimental test, suggest that the proposed noise model is a more realistic representation of experimental noise phenomena. The choice of estimator is shown to have a significant influence on the viability of the FRF sensitivity method. These test cases find that the use of the H2estimator for model updating purposes is contraindicated, and that there is no advantage to be gained by using the sophisticated estimators over the classical H1estimator.

A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scavia, Donald; Evans, Mary Anne; Obenour, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

For almost three decades, the relative size of the hypoxic region on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf has drawn scientific and policy attention. During that time, both simple and complex models have been used to explore hypoxia dynamics and to provide management guidance relating the size of the hypoxic zone to key drivers. Throughout much of that development, analyses had to accommodate an apparent change in hypoxic sensitivity to loads and often cull observations due to anomalous meteorological conditions. Here, we describe an adaptation of our earlier, simple biophysical model, calibrated to revised hypoxic area estimates and new hypoxic volume estimates through Bayesian estimation. This application eliminates the need to cull observations and provides revised hypoxic extent estimates with uncertainties, corresponding to different nutrient loading reduction scenarios. We compare guidance from this model application, suggesting an approximately 62% nutrient loading reduction is required to reduce Gulf hypoxia to the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km2, to that of previous applications. In addition, we describe for the first time, the corresponding response of hypoxic volume. We also analyze model results to test for increasing system sensitivity to hypoxia formation, but find no strong evidence of such change.

Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Emad; Tarhule, Aondover; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Clark, Race; Hong, Yang

2018-06-01

In data scarce basins, such as the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Africa, constraints related to data availability, quality, and access often complicate attempts to estimate runoff sensitivity using conventional methods. In this paper, we show that by integrating the concept of the aridity index (AI) (derived from the Budyko curve) and climate elasticity, we can obtain the first order response of the runoff sensitivity using minimal data input and modeling expertise or experience. The concept of runoff elasticity relies on the fact that the energy available for evapotranspiration plays a major role in determining whether the precipitation received within a drainage basin generates runoff. The approach does not account for human impacts on runoff modification and or diversions. By making use of freely available gauge-corrected satellite data for precipitation, temperature, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration, we derived the sensitivity indicator (β) to determine the runoff response to changes in precipitation and temperature for four climatic zones in the NRB, namely, tropical, subtropical, semiarid and arid zones. The proposed sensitivity indicator can be partitioned into different elasticity components i.e: precipitation (εp), potential evapotranspiration (εETp), temperature (εT) and the total elasticity (εtot) . These elasticities allow robust quantification of the runoff response to the potential changes in precipitation and temperature with a high degree of accuracy. Results indicate that the tropical zone is energy-constrained with low sensitivity, (β < 1.0) , implying that input precipitation exceeds the amounts that can be evaporated given the available energy. The subtropical zone is subdivided into two distinct regions, the lowland (Machar and Sudd marshes), and the highland area (Blue Nile Basin), where each area has a unique sensitivity. The lowland area has high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The subtropical-highland zone moves between energy-limited to water-limited conditions during periods of wet and dry spells with varying sensitivity. The semiarid and arid zones are water limited, with high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The calculated runoff elasticities show that a 10% decrease in precipitation leads to a decrease in runoff of between 19% in the tropical zone and 30% in the arid zones. On the other hand, a 10% precipitation increase leads to a runoff increase of 14% in the tropical zone and 22% in the arid zone. The estimated runoff changes are consistent with the result obtained using other methods. Thus, the elasticity approach combines data parsimony and analytical simplicity to produce results that are practically useful for most purposes while facilitating communication with stakeholders with different levels of scientific knowledge. More research is needed to extend the application of the method to incorporate the effects of human activities, and land use change.

Is acetylcholinesterase a biomarker of susceptibility in Daphnia magna (Crustacea, Cladocera) after deltamethrin exposure?

PubMed

Toumi, Héla; Boumaiza, Moncef; Millet, Maurice; Radetski, Claudemir Marcos; Felten, Vincent; Férard, Jean François

2015-02-01

In the present study, we explored the possibility of using the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) as a biomarker after deltamethrin (pyrethroid insecticide) exposure with three strains of the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Four calculated time-weighted deltamethrin concentrations (20.1, 40.3, 80.6 and 161.3 ng L(-1)) were compared against control acetylcholinesterase activity. Our results showed that after 48 h of deltamethrin exposure, all treatments induced a significant decrease of AChE activities whatever the three considered strains. However, diverse responses were registered in terms of lowest observed effect concentrations (LOEC: 80.6 ng L(-1) for strain 1 and 20.1 ng L(-1) for strains 2 and 3) revealing differences in sensitivity among the three tested strains of D. magna. Our results suggest that after deltamethrin exposure, the AChE activity responses can be also used as a biomarker of susceptibility (i.e., variation of strain specific response). Moreover, our results show that strain 1 is the less sensitive in terms of IC50-48 h of AChE, whereas it became the most sensitive when considering the EC50-48 h estimated in the standard ecotoxicity test. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-05-29

Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. And for a complex system such as a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. An adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm is proposed to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; these good values are then averaged to give the final globalmore » uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.« less

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, ED; Fridge, Ernie; Hamaker, Joe

1990-01-01

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

An Interactive Computer Package for Use with Simulation Models Which Performs Multidimensional Sensitivity Analysis by Employing the Techniques of Response Surface Methodology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-12-01

total sum of squares at the center points minus the correction factor for the mean at the center points ( SSpe =Y’Y-nlY), where n1 is the number of...SSlac=SSres- SSpe ). The sum of squares due to pure error estimates 0" and the sum of squares due to lack-of-fit estimates 0’" plus a bias term if...Response Surface Methodology Source d.f. SS MS Regression n b’X1 Y b’XVY/n Residual rn-n Y’Y-b’X’ *Y (Y’Y-b’X’Y)/(n-n) Pure Error ni-i Y’Y-nl1Y SSpe / (ni

TH-CD-202-10: Tumor Metabolic Control Probability & Dose Response Mapping for Adaptive Dose Painting by Number

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, S; Wilson, G; Krauss, D

Purpose: Adaptive dose-painting-by-number (DPbN) requires a dose-response-mapping (DRM) obtained early in the treatment course. To obtain DRM, voxel-by-voxel tumor dose response needs to be quantified. Our recent study has demonstrated that voxel-by-voxel radio-sensitivity of patient tumor can be determined using tumor-metabolic-ratio measured early during the treatment using FDG-PET images. In this study, the measurements were utilized to construct tumor metabolic control probability (TMCP) and DRM for DPbN. Methods: FDG-PET/CT images of 18 HN cancer patients obtained pre- and weekly during the treatment were used. Spatial parametric images of tumor-metabolic-ratio (dSUV) were constructed following voxel-by-voxel deformable image registration. Each voxel valuemore » in dSUV was a function of baseline SUV and delivered dose. Utilizing all values of dSUV in the controlled tumor group at the last treatment week, a cut-off function between the baseline SUV and dSUV was formed, and applied in early treatment days on dSUV of all tumors to model the TMCP. At the treatment week k, TMCP was constructed with respect to the tumor voxel dSUV appeared at the week using the maximum likelihood estimation for all dose levels, and used for DRM construction. Results: TMCPs estimated in the week 2 & 3 have D{sub 50}=11.1∼47.6Gy; γ{sub 50}=0.55∼0.92 respectively with respect to dSUV=0.3∼1.2. The corresponding DRM between tumor voxel dSUV and the expected treatment dose has sigmoid shape. The expected treatment dose are 26∼40Gy (for 95% TMCP) for high sensitive tumor voxels with dSUV=0.3∼0.5; and 65∼110Gy for low sensitive tumor voxels with the dSUV>1.0 depending on the time of the estimation. Conclusion: TMCP can be constructed voxel-by-voxel in human tumor using multiple FDG-PET imaging obtained in early treatment days. TMCP provides a potential quantitative objective of tumor DRM for DPbN to plan the best dose, escalate or de-escalate, in tumor adaptively based on its own radio-sensitivity.« less

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

PubMed

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

PubMed

Thackeray, Stephen J; Henrys, Peter A; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R; Botham, Marc S; Burthe, Sarah; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G; Jones, Ian D; Leech, David I; Mackay, Eleanor B; Massimino, Dario; Atkinson, Sian; Bacon, Philip J; Brereton, Tom M; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Duck, Callan; Edwards, Martin; Elliott, J Malcolm; Hall, Stephen J G; Harrington, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Høye, Toke T; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Pemberton, Josephine M; Sparks, Tim H; Thompson, Paul M; White, Ian; Winfield, Ian J; Wanless, Sarah

2016-07-14

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Decreased ATP synthesis and lower pH may lead to abnormal muscle contraction and skin sensitivity in human skin.

PubMed

Kim, Eun Ju; Lee, Dong Hun; Kim, Yeon Kyung; Kim, Min-Kyoung; Kim, Jung Yun; Lee, Min Jung; Choi, Won Woo; Eun, Hee Chul; Chung, Jin Ho

2014-12-01

Sensitive skin represents hyperactive sensory symptoms showing exaggerated reactions in response to internal stimulants or external irritants. Although sensitive skin is a very common condition affecting an estimated 50% of the population, its pathophysiology remains largely elusive, particularly with regard to its metabolic aspects. The objective of our study was to investigate the pathogenesis of sensitive skin. We recruited healthy participants with 'sensitive' or 'non-sensitive' skin based on standardized questionnaires and 10% lactic acid stinging test, and obtained skin samples for microarray analysis and subsequent experiments. Microarray transcriptome profiling revealed that genes involved in muscle contraction, carbohydrate and lipid metabolism, and ion transport and balance were significantly decreased in sensitive skin. These altered genes could account for the abnormal muscle contraction, decreased ATP amount in sensitive skin. In addition, pain-related transcripts such as TRPV1, ASIC3 and CGRP were significantly up-regulated in sensitive skin, compared with non-sensitive skin. Our findings suggest that sensitive skin is closely associated with the dysfunction of muscle contraction and metabolic homeostasis. Copyright © 2014 Japanese Society for Investigative Dermatology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Some modifications of Newton's method for the determination of the steady-state response of nonlinear oscillatory circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosz, F. B., Jr.; Trick, T. N.

1982-07-01

It is proposed that nondominant states should be eliminated from the Newton algorithm in the steady-state analysis of nonlinear oscillatory systems. This technique not only improves convergence, but also reduces the size of the sensitivity matrix so that less computation is required for each iteration. One or more periods of integration should be performed after each periodic state estimation before the sensitivity computations are made for the next periodic state estimation. These extra periods of integration between Newton iterations are found to allow the fast states due to parasitic effects to settle, which enables the Newton algorithm to make a better prediction. In addition, the reliability of the algorithm is improved in high Q oscillator circuits by both local and global damping in which the amount of damping is proportional to the difference between the initial and final state values.

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, Guy; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Smith, Benjamin

2018-05-01

For the 21st century, carbon cycle models typically project an increase of terrestrial carbon with increasing atmospheric CO2 and a decrease with the accompanying climate change. However, these estimates are poorly constrained, primarily because they typically rely on a limited number of emission and climate scenarios. Here we explore a wide range of combinations of CO2 rise and climate change and assess their likelihood with the climate change responses obtained from climate models. Our results demonstrate that the terrestrial carbon uptake depends critically on the climate sensitivity of individual climate models, representing a large uncertainty of model estimates. In our simulations, the terrestrial biosphere is unlikely to become a strong source of carbon with any likely combination of CO2 and climate change in the absence of land use change, but the fraction of the emissions taken up by the terrestrial biosphere will decrease drastically with higher emissions.

Predicting Effects of Coastal Acidification on Marine Bivalve ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is increasing in the oceans and causing changes in seawater pH commonly described as ocean or coastal acidification. It is now well-established that, when reproduced in laboratory experiments, these increases in pCO2 can reduce survival and growth of early life stage bivalves. However, the effects that these impairments would have on whole populations of bivalves are unknown. In this study, these laboratory responses were incorporated into field-parameterized population models to assess population-level sensitivities to acidification for two northeast bivalve species with different life histories: Mercenaria mercenaria (hard clam) and Argopecten irradians (bay scallop). The resulting models permitted translation of laboratory pCO2 response functions into population-level responses to examine population sensitivity to future pCO2 changes. Preliminary results from our models indicate that if the current M. mercenaria negative population growth rate was attributed to the effects of pCO2 on early life stages, the population would decline at a rate of 50% per ten years at 420 microatmospheres (µatm) pCO2. If the current population growth rate was attributed to other additive factors (e.g., harvest, harmful algal blooms), M. mercenaria populations were predicted to decline at a rate of 50% per ten years at the preliminary estimate of 1010 µatm pCO2. The estimated population growth rate was positive for A. irradians,

The photocurrent, noise and spectral sensitivity of rods of the monkey Macaca fascicularis.

PubMed Central

Baylor, D A; Nunn, B J; Schnapf, J L

1984-01-01

Visual transduction in rods of the cynomolgus monkey, Macaca fascicularis, was studied by recording membrane current from single outer segments projecting from small pieces of retina. Light flashes evoked transient outward-going photocurrents with saturating amplitudes of up to 34 pA. A flash causing twenty to fifty photoisomerizations gave a response of half the saturating amplitude. The response-stimulus relation was of the form 1-e-x where x is flash strength. The response to a dim flash usually had a time to peak of 150-250 ms and resembled the impulse response of a series of six low-pass filters. From the average spectral sensitivity of ten rods the rhodopsin was estimated to have a peak absorption near 491 nm. The spectral sensitivity of the rods was in good agreement with the average human scotopic visibility curve determined by Crawford (1949), when the human curve was corrected for lens absorption and self-screening of rhodopsin. Fluctuations in the photocurrent evoked by dim lights were consistent with a quantal event about 0.7 pA in peak amplitude. A steady light causing about 100 photoisomerizations s-1 reduced the flash sensitivity to half the dark-adapted value. At higher background levels the rod rapidly saturated. These results support the idea that dim background light desensitizes human scotopic vision by a mechanism central to the rod outer segments while scotopic saturation may occur within the outer segments. Recovery of the photocurrent after bright flashes was marked by quantized step-like events. The events had the properties expected if bleached rhodopsin in the disks occasionally caused an abrupt blockage of the dark current over about one-twentieth of the length of the outer segment. It is suggested that superposition of these events after bleaching may contribute to the threshold elevation measured psychophysically. The current in darkness showed random fluctuations which disappeared in bright light. The continuous component of the noise had a variance of about 0.03 pA2 and a power spectrum that fell to half near 3 Hz. A second component, consisting of discrete events resembling single-photon responses, was estimated to occur at a rate of 0.006 s-1. It is suggested that the continuous component of the noise may be removed from scotopic vision by a thresholding operation near the rod output. PMID:6512705

The photocurrent, noise and spectral sensitivity of rods of the monkey Macaca fascicularis.

PubMed

Baylor, D A; Nunn, B J; Schnapf, J L

1984-12-01

Visual transduction in rods of the cynomolgus monkey, Macaca fascicularis, was studied by recording membrane current from single outer segments projecting from small pieces of retina. Light flashes evoked transient outward-going photocurrents with saturating amplitudes of up to 34 pA. A flash causing twenty to fifty photoisomerizations gave a response of half the saturating amplitude. The response-stimulus relation was of the form 1-e-x where x is flash strength. The response to a dim flash usually had a time to peak of 150-250 ms and resembled the impulse response of a series of six low-pass filters. From the average spectral sensitivity of ten rods the rhodopsin was estimated to have a peak absorption near 491 nm. The spectral sensitivity of the rods was in good agreement with the average human scotopic visibility curve determined by Crawford (1949), when the human curve was corrected for lens absorption and self-screening of rhodopsin. Fluctuations in the photocurrent evoked by dim lights were consistent with a quantal event about 0.7 pA in peak amplitude. A steady light causing about 100 photoisomerizations s-1 reduced the flash sensitivity to half the dark-adapted value. At higher background levels the rod rapidly saturated. These results support the idea that dim background light desensitizes human scotopic vision by a mechanism central to the rod outer segments while scotopic saturation may occur within the outer segments. Recovery of the photocurrent after bright flashes was marked by quantized step-like events. The events had the properties expected if bleached rhodopsin in the disks occasionally caused an abrupt blockage of the dark current over about one-twentieth of the length of the outer segment. It is suggested that superposition of these events after bleaching may contribute to the threshold elevation measured psychophysically. The current in darkness showed random fluctuations which disappeared in bright light. The continuous component of the noise had a variance of about 0.03 pA2 and a power spectrum that fell to half near 3 Hz. A second component, consisting of discrete events resembling single-photon responses, was estimated to occur at a rate of 0.006 s-1. It is suggested that the continuous component of the noise may be removed from scotopic vision by a thresholding operation near the rod output.

Analysis of sensitivity of simulated recharge to selected parameters for seven watersheds modeled using the precipitation-runoff modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew

2006-01-01

Recharge is a vital component of the ground-water budget and methods for estimating it range from extremely complex to relatively simple. The most commonly used techniques, however, are limited by the scale of application. One method that can be used to estimate ground-water recharge includes process-based models that compute distributed water budgets on a watershed scale. These models should be evaluated to determine which model parameters are the dominant controls in determining ground-water recharge. Seven existing watershed models from different humid regions of the United States were chosen to analyze the sensitivity of simulated recharge to model parameters. Parameter sensitivities were determined using a nonlinear regression computer program to generate a suite of diagnostic statistics. The statistics identify model parameters that have the greatest effect on simulated ground-water recharge and that compare and contrast the hydrologic system responses to those parameters. Simulated recharge in the Lost River and Big Creek watersheds in Washington State was sensitive to small changes in air temperature. The Hamden watershed model in west-central Minnesota was developed to investigate the relations that wetlands and other landscape features have with runoff processes. Excess soil moisture in the Hamden watershed simulation was preferentially routed to wetlands, instead of to the ground-water system, resulting in little sensitivity of any parameters to recharge. Simulated recharge in the North Fork Pheasant Branch watershed, Wisconsin, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to parameters related to evapotranspiration. Three watersheds were simulated as part of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Parameter sensitivities for the MOPEX watersheds, Amite River, Louisiana and Mississippi, English River, Iowa, and South Branch Potomac River, West Virginia, were similar and most sensitive to small changes in air temperature and a user-defined flow routing parameter. Although the primary objective of this study was to identify, by geographic region, the importance of the parameter value to the simulation of ground-water recharge, the secondary objectives proved valuable for future modeling efforts. The value of a rigorous sensitivity analysis can (1) make the calibration process more efficient, (2) guide additional data collection, (3) identify model limitations, and (4) explain simulated results.

Cognitively-Impaired-Not-Demented Status Moderates the Time-Varying Association between Finger Tapping Inconsistency and Executive Performance.

PubMed

Halliday, Drew W R; Stawski, Robert S; MacDonald, Stuart W S

2017-02-01

Response time inconsistency (RTI) in cognitive performance predicts deleterious health outcomes in late-life; however, RTI estimates are often confounded by additional influences (e.g., individual differences in learning). Finger tapping is a basic sensorimotor measure largely independent of higher-order cognition that may circumvent such confounds of RTI estimates. We examined the within-person coupling of finger-tapping mean and RTI on working memory, and the moderation of these associations by cognitive status. A total of 262 older adults were recruited and classified as controls, cognitively-impaired-not-demented (CIND) unstable or CIND stable. Participants completed finger-tapping and working-memory tasks during multiple weekly assessments, repeated annually for 4 years. Within-person coupling estimates from multilevel models indicated that on occasions when RTI was greater, working-memory response latency was slower for the CIND-stable, but not for the CIND-unstable or control individuals. The finger-tapping task shows potential for minimizing confounds on RTI estimates, and for yielding RTI estimates sensitive to central nervous system function and cognitive status. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The cross-cut statistic and its sensitivity to bias in observational studies with ordered doses of treatment.

PubMed

Rosenbaum, Paul R

2016-03-01

A common practice with ordered doses of treatment and ordered responses, perhaps recorded in a contingency table with ordered rows and columns, is to cut or remove a cross from the table, leaving the outer corners--that is, the high-versus-low dose, high-versus-low response corners--and from these corners to compute a risk or odds ratio. This little remarked but common practice seems to be motivated by the oldest and most familiar method of sensitivity analysis in observational studies, proposed by Cornfield et al. (1959), which says that to explain a population risk ratio purely as bias from an unobserved binary covariate, the prevalence ratio of the covariate must exceed the risk ratio. Quite often, the largest risk ratio, hence the one least sensitive to bias by this standard, is derived from the corners of the ordered table with the central cross removed. Obviously, the corners use only a portion of the data, so a focus on the corners has consequences for the standard error as well as for bias, but sampling variability was not a consideration in this early and familiar form of sensitivity analysis, where point estimates replaced population parameters. Here, this cross-cut analysis is examined with the aid of design sensitivity and the power of a sensitivity analysis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Time domain modal identification/estimation of the mini-mast testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roemer, Michael J.; Mook, D. Joseph

1991-01-01

The Mini-Mast is a 20 meter long 3-dimensional, deployable/retractable truss structure designed to imitate future trusses in space. Presented here are results from a robust (with respect to measurement noise sensitivity), time domain, modal identification technique for identifying the modal properties of the Mini-Mast structure even in the face of noisy environments. Three testing/analysis procedures are considered: sinusoidal excitation near resonant frequencies of the Mini-Mast, frequency response function averaging of several modal tests, and random input excitation with a free response period.

Preparation-induced errors in EPR dosimetry of enamel: pre- and post-crushing sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haskell, E.H.; Hayes, R.B.; Kenner, G.H.

1996-01-01

Errors in dose estimation as a function of grain size for tooth enamel has been previously shown for beta irradiation after crushing. We tested the effect of gamma radiation applied to specimens before and after crushing. We extend the previous work in that we found that post-crushing irradiation altered the slope of the dose-response curve of the hydroxyapatite signal and produced a grain-size dependent offset. No changes in the slope of the dose-response curve were seen in enamel caps irradiated before crushing.

Ischemia reperfusion dysfunction changes model-estimated kinetics of myofilament interaction due to inotropic drugs in isolated hearts

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Samhita S; Camara, Amadou KS; Ropella, Kristina M; Audi, Said H; Riess, Matthias L; Pagel, Paul S; Stowe, David F

2006-01-01

Background The phase-space relationship between simultaneously measured myoplasmic [Ca2+] and isovolumetric left ventricular pressure (LVP) in guinea pig intact hearts is altered by ischemic and inotropic interventions. Our objective was to mathematically model this phase-space relationship between [Ca2+] and LVP with a focus on the changes in cross-bridge kinetics and myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity responsible for alterations in Ca2+-contraction coupling due to inotropic drugs in the presence and absence of ischemia reperfusion (IR) injury. Methods We used a four state computational model to predict LVP using experimentally measured, averaged myoplasmic [Ca2+] transients from unpaced, isolated guinea pig hearts as the model input. Values of model parameters were estimated by minimizing the error between experimentally measured LVP and model-predicted LVP. Results We found that IR injury resulted in reduced myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity, and decreased cross-bridge association and dissociation rates. Dopamine (8 μM) reduced myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity before, but enhanced it after ischemia while improving cross-bridge kinetics before and after IR injury. Dobutamine (4 μM) reduced myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity while improving cross-bridge kinetics before and after ischemia. Digoxin (1 μM) increased myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity and cross-bridge kinetics after but not before ischemia. Levosimendan (1 μM) enhanced myofilament Ca2+ affinity and cross-bridge kinetics only after ischemia. Conclusion Estimated model parameters reveal mechanistic changes in Ca2+-contraction coupling due to IR injury, specifically the inefficient utilization of Ca2+ for contractile function with diastolic contracture (increase in resting diastolic LVP). The model parameters also reveal drug-induced improvements in Ca2+-contraction coupling before and after IR injury. PMID:16512898

Cost Effectiveness of Ofatumumab Plus Chlorambucil in First-Line Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia in Canada.

PubMed

Herring, William; Pearson, Isobel; Purser, Molly; Nakhaipour, Hamid Reza; Haiderali, Amin; Wolowacz, Sorrel; Jayasundara, Kavisha

2016-01-01

Our objective was to estimate the cost effectiveness of ofatumumab plus chlorambucil (OChl) versus chlorambucil in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia for whom fludarabine-based therapies are considered inappropriate from the perspective of the publicly funded healthcare system in Canada. A semi-Markov model (3-month cycle length) used survival curves to govern progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Efficacy and safety data and health-state utility values were estimated from the COMPLEMENT-1 trial. Post-progression treatment patterns were based on clinical guidelines, Canadian treatment practices and published literature. Total and incremental expected lifetime costs (in Canadian dollars [$Can], year 2013 values), life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were computed. Uncertainty was assessed via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The discounted lifetime health and economic outcomes estimated by the model showed that, compared with chlorambucil, first-line treatment with OChl led to an increase in QALYs (0.41) and total costs ($Can27,866) and to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $Can68,647 per QALY gained. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, the ICER was most sensitive to the modelling time horizon and to the extrapolation of OS treatment effects beyond the trial duration. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability of cost effectiveness at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $Can100,000 per QALY gained was 59 %. Base-case results indicated that improved overall response and PFS for OChl compared with chlorambucil translated to improved quality-adjusted life expectancy. Sensitivity analysis suggested that OChl is likely to be cost effective subject to uncertainty associated with the presence of any long-term OS benefit and the model time horizon.

Force-response considerations in ciliary mechanosensation.

PubMed

Resnick, Andrew; Hopfer, Ulrich

2007-08-15

Considerable experimental evidence indicates that the primary, nonmotile cilium is a mechanosensory organelle in several epithelial cell types. As the relationship between cellular responses and nature and magnitude of applied forces is not well understood, we have investigated the effects of exposure of monolayers of renal collecting duct chief cells to orbital shaking and quantified the forces incident on cilia. An exposure of 24 h of these cells to orbital shaking resulted in a decrease of amiloride-sensitive sodium current by approximately 60% and ciliary length by approximately 30%. The sensitivity of the sodium current to shaking was dependent on intact cilia. The drag force on cilia due to induced fluid flow during orbital shaking was estimated at maximally 5.2x10(-3) pN at 2 Hz, approximately 4 times that of thermal noise. The major structural feature of cilia contributing to their sensitivity appears to be ciliary length. As more than half of the total drag force is exerted on the ciliary cap, one function of the slender stalk may be to expose the cap to greater drag force. Regardless, the findings indicate that the cilium is a mechanosensory organelle with a sensitivity much lower than previously recognized.

Highly sensitive and selective cholesterol biosensor based on direct electron transfer of hemoglobin.

PubMed

Zhao, Changzhi; Wan, Li; Jiang, Li; Wang, Qin; Jiao, Kui

2008-12-01

A cholesterol biosensor based on direct electron transfer of a hemoglobin-encapsulated chitosan-modified glassy carbon electrode has been developed for highly sensitive and selective analysis of serum samples. Modified by films containing hemoglobin and cholesterol oxidase, the electrode was prepared by encapsulation of enzyme in chitosan matrix. The hydrogen peroxide produced by the catalytic oxidation of cholesterol by cholesterol oxidase was reduced electrocatalytically by immobilized hemoglobin and used to obtain a sensitive amperometric response to cholesterol. The linear response of cholesterol concentrations ranged from 1.00 x 10(-5) to 6.00 x 10(-4) mol/L, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9969 and estimated detection limit of cholesterol of 9.5 micromol/L at a signal/noise ratio of 3. The cholesterol biosensor can efficiently exclude interference by the commonly coexisting ascorbic acid, uric acid, dopamine, and epinephrine. The sensitivity to the change in the concentration of cholesterol as the slope of the calibration curve was 0.596 A/M. The relative standard deviation was under 4.0% (n=5) for the determination of real samples. The biosensor is satisfactory in the determination of human serum samples.

Mechanical modulation method for ultrasensitive phase measurements in photonics biosensing.

PubMed

Patskovsky, S; Maisonneuve, M; Meunier, M; Kabashin, A V

2008-12-22

A novel polarimetry methodology for phase-sensitive measurements in single reflection geometry is proposed for applications in optical transduction-based biological sensing. The methodology uses altering step-like chopper-based mechanical phase modulation for orthogonal s- and p- polarizations of light reflected from the sensing interface and the extraction of phase information at different harmonics of the modulation. We show that even under a relatively simple experimental arrangement, the methodology provides the resolution of phase measurements as low as 0.007 deg. We also examine the proposed approach using Total Internal Reflection (TIR) and Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) geometries. For TIR geometry, the response appears to be strongly dependent on the prism material with the best values for high refractive index Si. The detection limit for Si-based TIR is estimated as 10(-5) in terms Refractive Index Units (RIU) change. SPR geometry offers much stronger phase response due to a much sharper phase characteristics. With the detection limit of 3.2*10(-7) RIU, the proposed methodology provides one of best sensitivities for phase-sensitive SPR devices. Advantages of the proposed method include high sensitivity, simplicity of experimental setup and noise immunity as a result of a high stability modulation.

Quantification of airport community noise impact in terms of noise levels, population density, and human subjective response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, R.

1981-01-01

The Fraction Impact Method (FIM), developed by the National Research Council (NRC) for assessing the amount and physiological effect of noise, is described. Here, the number of people exposed to a given level of noise is multiplied by a weighting factor that depends on noise level. It is pointed out that the Aircraft-noise Levels and Annoyance MOdel (ALAMO), recently developed at NASA Langley Research Center, can perform the NRC fractional impact calculations for given modes of operation at any U.S. airport. The sensitivity of these calculations to errors in estimates of population, noise level, and human subjective response is discussed. It is found that a change in source noise causes a substantially smaller change in contour area than would be predicted simply on the basis of inverse square law considerations. Another finding is that the impact calculations are generally less sensitive to source noise errors than to systematic errors in population or subjective response.

Preliminary evaluation of the sensitivity to change of DE-STA motor unit number estimation in the upper trapezius muscle in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Ives, Colleen T; Findlater, Karen; Shoesmith, Christen L; Doherty, Timothy J

2015-07-01

To compare the sensitivity to change of decomposition-enhanced spike-triggered averaging (DE-STA) motor unit number estimation (MUNE) in the upper trapezius (UT) to that of various clinical outcome measures in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Ten patients with clinically probable or definite ALS were assessed at baseline, 2, 4 and 6months with the following outcome measures: manual muscle testing in five upper extremity muscle groups, scapular elevation and elbow flexion peak force measured with hand-held dynamometry, MUNE, forced vital capacity and the Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R). ALSFRS-R was the only outcome measure for which there was a significant difference between baseline and 6months (p=0.034). ALSFRS-R had the largest standardized response mean (SRM), and was thus the most sensitive to change. MUNE demonstrated a decline over 6months and a moderate SRM (-0.63). This study has demonstrated a moderate degree of sensitivity to change for DE-STA MUNE as applied to the UT in subjects with ALS. In this preliminary study, DE-STA MUNE detected motor unit loss over 6months, with a moderate degree of sensitivity, in the upper trapezius of subjects with ALS. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

GABAergic excitation of spider mechanoreceptors increases information capacity by increasing entropy rather than decreasing jitter.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Keram; French, Andrew S

2009-09-02

Neurotransmitter chemicals excite or inhibit a range of sensory afferents and sensory pathways. These changes in firing rate or static sensitivity can also be associated with changes in dynamic sensitivity or membrane noise and thus action potential timing. We measured action potential firing produced by random mechanical stimulation of spider mechanoreceptor neurons during long-duration excitation by the GABAA agonist muscimol. Information capacity was estimated from signal-to-noise ratio by averaging responses to repeated identical stimulation sequences. Information capacity was also estimated from the coherence function between input and output signals. Entropy rate was estimated by a data compression algorithm and maximum entropy rate from the firing rate. Action potential timing variability, or jitter, was measured as normalized interspike interval distance. Muscimol increased firing rate, information capacity, and entropy rate, but jitter was unchanged. We compared these data with the effects of increasing firing rate by current injection. Our results indicate that the major increase in information capacity by neurotransmitter action arose from the increased entropy rate produced by increased firing rate, not from reduction in membrane noise and action potential jitter.

Surface water acidification responses and critical loads of sulfur and nitrogen deposition in Loch Vale watershed, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, T.J.; Cosby, B.J.; Tonnessen, K.A.; Clow, D.W.

2005-01-01

We evaluated the sensitivity of The Loch, a subalpine lake in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado, to acidification in response to increased atmospheric loading of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) using the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC). Lake water acid‐base chemistry was moderately sensitive to changes in both S and N deposition. However, the loads of S deposition that would drive chronic lake water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) to below 0 or 20 μeq L−1 were estimated to be 11 and 8 kg S ha−1 yr−1, respectively, assuming constant future N deposition at current levels. Comparable loads for N deposition, assuming constant future S deposition, were estimated to be 21 and 12 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. Modeling results for Andrews Creek, an alpine tributary to The Loch, suggested critical loads for surface water acidification that averaged about one third lower. Surface water ANC = 50 μeq L−1 was projected to occur in 50 years in The Loch if S or N deposition increased by a moderate amount (<40%) but could not be achieved in Andrews Creek by reducing either S or N deposition to zero. On the basis of the results of synoptic surveys of lake water chemistry, about one fifth of the wilderness lakes in the Colorado Front Range are more acid‐sensitive than The Loch. This modeling exercise suggests the need for a regional analysis of critical loads for the larger population of acid‐sensitive aquatic resources in order to provide part of the scientific foundation for federally mandated land management decisions.

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for subject-level response classification in peptide microarray immunoassays

PubMed Central

Imholte, Gregory; Gottardo, Raphael

2017-01-01

Summary The peptide microarray immunoassay simultaneously screens sample serum against thousands of peptides, determining the presence of antibodies bound to array probes. Peptide microarrays tiling immunogenic regions of pathogens (e.g. envelope proteins of a virus) are an important high throughput tool for querying and mapping antibody binding. Because of the assay’s many steps, from probe synthesis to incubation, peptide microarray data can be noisy with extreme outliers. In addition, subjects may produce different antibody profiles in response to an identical vaccine stimulus or infection, due to variability among subjects’ immune systems. We present a robust Bayesian hierarchical model for peptide microarray experiments, pepBayes, to estimate the probability of antibody response for each subject/peptide combination. Heavy-tailed error distributions accommodate outliers and extreme responses, and tailored random effect terms automatically incorporate technical effects prevalent in the assay. We apply our model to two vaccine trial datasets to demonstrate model performance. Our approach enjoys high sensitivity and specificity when detecting vaccine induced antibody responses. A simulation study shows an adaptive thresholding classification method has appropriate false discovery rate control with high sensitivity, and receiver operating characteristics generated on vaccine trial data suggest that pepBayes clearly separates responses from non-responses. PMID:27061097

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

DOE PAGES

Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Schwalm, C.; ...

2017-07-06

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO 2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO 2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative landmore » uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO 2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.« less

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Schwalm, C.

2017-07-06

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake sincemore » 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.« less

Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Michalak, A. M.; Schwalm, C.

Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO 2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO 2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative landmore » uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO 2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.« less

Linear models: permutation methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Everitt, B.S.; Howell, D.C.

2005-01-01

Permutation tests (see Permutation Based Inference) for the linear model have applications in behavioral studies when traditional parametric assumptions about the error term in a linear model are not tenable. Improved validity of Type I error rates can be achieved with properly constructed permutation tests. Perhaps more importantly, increased statistical power, improved robustness to effects of outliers, and detection of alternative distributional differences can be achieved by coupling permutation inference with alternative linear model estimators. For example, it is well-known that estimates of the mean in linear model are extremely sensitive to even a single outlying value of the dependent variable compared to estimates of the median [7, 19]. Traditionally, linear modeling focused on estimating changes in the center of distributions (means or medians). However, quantile regression allows distributional changes to be estimated in all or any selected part of a distribution or responses, providing a more complete statistical picture that has relevance to many biological questions [6]...

Optimization and field use of a bioassay to monitor sea lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis sensitivity to emamectin benzoate.

PubMed

Westcott, Jillian D; Stryhn, Henrik; Burka, John F; Hammell, K Larry

2008-04-01

A bioassay for sea lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis sensitivity towards emamectin benzoate (EMB) was validated for field use. A probit regression model with natural responsiveness was used for the number of affected (moribund or dead) sea lice in bioassays involving different concentrations of EMB. Bioassay optimization included an evaluation of the inter-rater reliability of sea lice responsiveness to EMB and an evaluation of gender-related differences in susceptibility. Adoption of a set of bioassay response criteria improved the concordance (evaluated using the concordance correlation coefficient) between raters' assessments and the model estimation of EC50 values (the 'effective concentration' leading to a response of 50% of the lice not prone to natural response). An evaluation of gender-related differences in EMB susceptibility indicated that preadult stage female sea lice exhibited a significantly larger sensitivity towards EMB in 12 of 19 bioassays compared to preadult males. In order to evaluate sea lice sensitivity to EMB in eastern Canada, the intensive salmon farming area in the Bay of Fundy in southwestern New Brunswick was divided into 4 distinct regions based on industry health management practices and hydrographics. A total of 38 bioassays were completed from 2002 to 2005 using populations of preadult stage sea lice collected from Atlantic salmon Salmo salar farms within the 4 described regions. There was no significant overall effect of region or year on EC50 values; however, analysis of variance indicated a significant effect of time of year on EC50 values in 2002 and a potential effect in 2004 to 2005. Although the range of EC50 values obtained in this 3 yr study did not appear sufficient to affect current clinical success in the control of sea lice, the results suggest a seasonal- or temperature-associated variation in sensitivity to EMB. This will need to be considered if changes in EMB efficacy occur in the future.

Responses of pond-breeding amphibians to wildfire: Short-term patterns in occupancy and colonization

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Paul Stephen Corn

2007-01-01

Wildland fires are expected to become more frequent and severe in many ecosystems, potentially posing a threat to many sensitive species. We evaluated the effects of a large, stand-replacement wildfire on three species of pond-breeding amphibians by estimating changes in occupancy of breeding sites during the three years before and after the fire burned 42 of 83...

Measuring Growth and Decline in Visual-Motor Processes with the Bender-Gestalt Second Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Decker, Scott L.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a change-sensitive scale for evaluating developmental change in visual-motor ability across the life span. A partial-credit item-response model is used to estimate theta values for each age group between 4 and 90 using the Bender-Gestalt II standardization sample (N = 4,000). Results from this study suggest…

Super Corr-A Solvent Replacement Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-12

Horizontal Vertical BUSINESS SENSITIVE 23 Conclusions • No tested lubricants met all first article testing requirements • DuPont Vertrel SDG and Kyzen...John Stropki Battelle Distribution Statement A Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No...0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing

A new framework for comprehensive, robust, and efficient global sensitivity analysis: 2. Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razavi, Saman; Gupta, Hoshin V.

2016-01-01

Based on the theoretical framework for sensitivity analysis called "Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces" (VARS), developed in the companion paper, we develop and implement a practical "star-based" sampling strategy (called STAR-VARS), for the application of VARS to real-world problems. We also develop a bootstrap approach to provide confidence level estimates for the VARS sensitivity metrics and to evaluate the reliability of inferred factor rankings. The effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness of STAR-VARS are demonstrated via two real-data hydrological case studies (a 5-parameter conceptual rainfall-runoff model and a 45-parameter land surface scheme hydrology model), and a comparison with the "derivative-based" Morris and "variance-based" Sobol approaches are provided. Our results show that STAR-VARS provides reliable and stable assessments of "global" sensitivity across the full range of scales in the factor space, while being 1-2 orders of magnitude more efficient than the Morris or Sobol approaches.

Correlation of Cellular Immune Responses with Protection against Culture-Confirmed Influenza Virus in Young Children▿

PubMed Central

Forrest, Bruce D.; Pride, Michael W.; Dunning, Andrew J.; Capeding, Maria Rosario Z.; Chotpitayasunondh, Tawee; Tam, John S.; Rappaport, Ruth; Eldridge, John H.; Gruber, William C.

2008-01-01

The highly sensitive gamma interferon (IFN-γ) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assay permits the investigation of the role of cell-mediated immunity (CMI) in the protection of young children against influenza. Preliminary studies of young children confirmed that the IFN-γ ELISPOT assay was a more sensitive measure of influenza memory immune responses than serum antibody and that among seronegative children aged 6 to <36 months, an intranasal dose of 107 fluorescent focus units (FFU) of a live attenuated influenza virus vaccine (CAIV-T) elicited substantial CMI responses. A commercial inactivated influenza virus vaccine elicited CMI responses only in children with some previous exposure to related influenza viruses as determined by detectable antibody levels prevaccination. The role of CMI in actual protection against community-acquired, culture-confirmed clinical influenza by CAIV-T was investigated in a large randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled dose-ranging efficacy trial with 2,172 children aged 6 to <36 months in the Philippines and Thailand. The estimated protection curve indicated that the majority of infants and young children with ≥100 spot-forming cells/106 peripheral blood mononuclear cells were protected against clinical influenza, establishing a possible target level of CMI for future influenza vaccine development. The ELISPOT assay for IFN-γ is a sensitive and reproducible measure of CMI and memory immune responses and contributes to establishing requirements for the future development of vaccines against influenza, especially those used for children. PMID:18448618

Doubly Robust and Efficient Estimation of Marginal Structural Models for the Hazard Function

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wenjing; Petersen, Maya; van der Laan, Mark

2016-01-01

In social and health sciences, many research questions involve understanding the causal effect of a longitudinal treatment on mortality (or time-to-event outcomes in general). Often, treatment status may change in response to past covariates that are risk factors for mortality, and in turn, treatment status may also affect such subsequent covariates. In these situations, Marginal Structural Models (MSMs), introduced by Robins (1997), are well-established and widely used tools to account for time-varying confounding. In particular, a MSM can be used to specify the intervention-specific counterfactual hazard function, i.e. the hazard for the outcome of a subject in an ideal experiment where he/she was assigned to follow a given intervention on their treatment variables. The parameters of this hazard MSM are traditionally estimated using the Inverse Probability Weighted estimation (IPTW, van der Laan and Petersen (2007), Robins et al. (2000b), Robins (1999), Robins et al. (2008)). This estimator is easy to implement and admits Wald-type confidence intervals. However, its consistency hinges on the correct specification of the treatment allocation probabilities, and the estimates are generally sensitive to large treatment weights (especially in the presence of strong confounding), which are difficult to stabilize for dynamic treatment regimes. In this paper, we present a pooled targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE, van der Laan and Rubin (2006)) for MSM for the hazard function under longitudinal dynamic treatment regimes. The proposed estimator is semiparametric efficient and doubly robust, hence offers bias reduction and efficiency gain over the incumbent IPTW estimator. Moreover, the substitution principle rooted in the TMLE potentially mitigates the sensitivity to large treatment weights in IPTW. We compare the performance of the proposed estimator with the IPTW and a non-targeted substitution estimator in a simulation study. PMID:27227723

Benefit of Hepatitis C Virus Core Antigen Assay in Prediction of Therapeutic Response to Interferon and Ribavirin Combination Therapy

PubMed Central

Takahashi, Masahiko; Saito, Hidetsugu; Higashimoto, Makiko; Atsukawa, Kazuhiro; Ishii, Hiromasa

2005-01-01

A highly sensitive second-generation hepatitis C virus (HCV) core antigen assay has recently been developed. We compared viral disappearance and first-phase kinetics between commercially available core antigen (Ag) assays, Lumipulse Ortho HCV Ag (Lumipulse-Ag), and a quantitative HCV RNA PCR assay, Cobas Amplicor HCV Monitor test, version 2 (Amplicor M), to estimate the predictive benefit of a sustained viral response (SVR) and non-SVR in 44 genotype 1b patients treated with interferon (IFN) and ribavirin. HCV core Ag negativity could predict SVR on day 1 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 85.0%, accuracy = 86.4%), whereas RNA negativity could predict SVR on day 7 (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 87.2%, accuracy = 88.6%). None of the patients who had detectable serum core Ag or RNA on day 14 achieved SVR (specificity = 100%). The predictive accuracy on day 14 was higher by RNA negativity (93.2%) than that by core Ag negativity (75.0%). The combined predictive criterion of both viral load decline during the first 24 h and basal viral load was also predictive for SVR; the sensitivities of Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were 45.5 and 47.6%, respectively, and the specificity was 100%. Amplicor-M had better predictive accuracy than Lumipulse-Ag in 2-week disappearance tests because it had better sensitivity. On the other hand, estimates of kinetic parameters were similar regardless of the detection method. Although the correlations between Lumipulse-Ag and Amplicor-M were good both before and 24 h after IFN administration, HCV core Ag seemed to be relatively lower 24 h after IFN administration than before administration. Lumipulse-Ag seems to be useful for detecting the HCV concentration during IFN therapy; however, we still need to understand the characteristics of the assay. PMID:15634970

Misclassification of survey responses and black-white disparity in mammography use, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1995-2006.

PubMed

Njai, Rashid; Siegel, Paul Z; Miller, Jacqueline W; Liao, Youlian

2011-05-01

The validity of self-reported data for mammography differ by race. We assessed the effect of racial differences in the validity of age-adjusted, self-reported mammography use estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1995 through 2006 to determine whether misclassification (inaccurate survey question response) may have obscured actual racial disparities. We adjusted BRFSS mammography use data for age by using 2000 census estimates and for misclassification by using the following formula: (estimated prevalence - 1 + specificity) / (sensitivity + specificity - 1). We used values reported in the literature for the formula (sensitivity = 0.97 for both black and white women, specificity = 0.49 and 0.62, respectively, for black and white women). After adjustment for misclassification, the percentage of women aged 40 years or older in 1995 who reported receiving a mammogram during the previous 2 years was 54% among white women and 41% among black women, compared with 70% among both white and black women after adjustment for age only. In 2006, the percentage after adjustment for misclassification was 65% among white women and 59% among black women compared with 77% among white women and 78% among black women after adjustment for age only. Self-reported data overestimate mammography use - more so for black women than for white women. After adjustment for respondent misclassification, neither white women nor black women had attained the Healthy People 2010 objective (≥ 70%) by 2006, and a disparity between white and black women emerged.

Robust linear parameter-varying control of blood pressure using vasoactive drugs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luspay, Tamas; Grigoriadis, Karolos

2015-10-01

Resuscitation of emergency care patients requires fast restoration of blood pressure to a target value to achieve hemodynamic stability and vital organ perfusion. A robust control design methodology is presented in this paper for regulating the blood pressure of hypotensive patients by means of the closed-loop administration of vasoactive drugs. To this end, a dynamic first-order delay model is utilised to describe the vasoactive drug response with varying parameters that represent intra-patient and inter-patient variability. The proposed framework consists of two components: first, an online model parameter estimation is carried out using a multiple-model extended Kalman-filter. Second, the estimated model parameters are used for continuously scheduling a robust linear parameter-varying (LPV) controller. The closed-loop behaviour is characterised by parameter-varying dynamic weights designed to regulate the mean arterial pressure to a target value. Experimental data of blood pressure response of anesthetised pigs to phenylephrine injection are used for validating the LPV blood pressure models. Simulation studies are provided to validate the online model estimation and the LPV blood pressure control using phenylephrine drug injection models representing patients showing sensitive, nominal and insensitive response to the drug.

Smokers' strategic responses to sin taxes: evidence from panel data in Thailand.

PubMed

White, Justin S; Ross, Hana

2015-02-01

In addition to quitting and cutting consumption, smokers faced with higher cigarette prices may compensate in several ways that mute the health impact of cigarette taxes. This study examines three price avoidance strategies among adult male smokers in Thailand: trading down to a lower-priced brand, buying individual sticks of cigarettes instead of packs, and substituting roll-your-own tobacco for factory-manufactured cigarettes. Using two panels of microlevel data from the International Tobacco Control Southeast Asia Study, collected in 2005 and 2006, we estimate the effects of a substantial excise tax increase implemented throughout Thailand in December 2005. We present estimates of the marginal effects and price elasticities for each of five consumer behaviors. We find that, controlling for baseline smoking characteristics, sociodemographics, and policy variables, quitting is highly sensitive to changes in cigarette prices, but so are brand choice, stick-buying, and use of roll-your-own tobacco. Neglecting such strategic responses leads to overestimates of a sin tax's health impact, and neglecting product substitution distorts estimates of the price elasticity of cigarette demand. We discuss the implications for consumer welfare and several policies that mitigate the adverse impact of consumer responses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Augmented Cross-Sectional Studies with Abbreviated Follow-up for Estimating HIV Incidence

PubMed Central

Claggett, B.; Lagakos, S.W.; Wang, R.

2011-01-01

Summary Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on a sensitive and less-sensitive test offers great advantages over the traditional cohort study. However, its use has been limited due to concerns about the false negative rate of the less-sensitive test, reflecting the phenomenon that some subjects may remain negative permanently on the less-sensitive test. Wang and Lagakos (2010) propose an augmented cross-sectional design which provides one way to estimate the size of the infected population who remain negative permanently and subsequently incorporate this information in the cross-sectional incidence estimator. In an augmented cross-sectional study, subjects who test negative on the less-sensitive test in the cross-sectional survey are followed forward for transition into the nonrecent state, at which time they would test positive on the less-sensitive test. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the appropriate length of follow-up and the size of the infected population who remain nonreactive permanently to the less-sensitive test. In this paper, we assess the impact of varying follow-up time on the resulting incidence estimators from an augmented cross-sectional study, evaluate the robustness of cross-sectional estimators to assumptions about the existence and the size of the subpopulation who will remain negative permanently, and propose a new estimator based on abbreviated follow-up time (AF). Compared to the original estimator from an augmented cross-sectional study, the AF Estimator allows shorter follow-up time and does not require estimation of the mean window period, defined as the average time between detectability of HIV infection with the sensitive and less-sensitive tests. It is shown to perform well in a wide range of settings. We discuss when the AF Estimator would be expected to perform well and offer design considerations for an augmented cross-sectional study with abbreviated follow-up. PMID:21668904

Augmented cross-sectional studies with abbreviated follow-up for estimating HIV incidence.

PubMed

Claggett, B; Lagakos, S W; Wang, R

2012-03-01

Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on a sensitive and less-sensitive test offers great advantages over the traditional cohort study. However, its use has been limited due to concerns about the false negative rate of the less-sensitive test, reflecting the phenomenon that some subjects may remain negative permanently on the less-sensitive test. Wang and Lagakos (2010, Biometrics 66, 864-874) propose an augmented cross-sectional design that provides one way to estimate the size of the infected population who remain negative permanently and subsequently incorporate this information in the cross-sectional incidence estimator. In an augmented cross-sectional study, subjects who test negative on the less-sensitive test in the cross-sectional survey are followed forward for transition into the nonrecent state, at which time they would test positive on the less-sensitive test. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the appropriate length of follow-up and the size of the infected population who remain nonreactive permanently to the less-sensitive test. In this article, we assess the impact of varying follow-up time on the resulting incidence estimators from an augmented cross-sectional study, evaluate the robustness of cross-sectional estimators to assumptions about the existence and the size of the subpopulation who will remain negative permanently, and propose a new estimator based on abbreviated follow-up time (AF). Compared to the original estimator from an augmented cross-sectional study, the AF estimator allows shorter follow-up time and does not require estimation of the mean window period, defined as the average time between detectability of HIV infection with the sensitive and less-sensitive tests. It is shown to perform well in a wide range of settings. We discuss when the AF estimator would be expected to perform well and offer design considerations for an augmented cross-sectional study with abbreviated follow-up. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Opportunities for understanding of aerosol cloud interactions in the context of Marine Cloud Brightening Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasch, Philip J.; Wood, Robert; Ackerman, Thomas P.

2017-04-01

Anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds constitute the largest source of uncertainty in radiative forcing of climate, confounding estimates of climate sensitivity to increases in greenhouse gases. Projections of future warming are also thus strongly dependent on estimates of aerosol effects on clouds. I will discuss the opportunities for improving estimates of aerosol effects on clouds from controlled field experiments where aerosol with well understood size, composition, amount, and injection altitude could be introduced to deliberately change cloud properties. This would allow scientific investigation to be performed in a manner much closer to a lab environment, and facilitate the use of models to predict cloud responses ahead of time, testing our understanding of aerosol cloud interactions.

Time Intervals in Sequence Sampling, Not Data Modifications, Have a Major Impact on Estimates of HIV Escape Rates

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The ability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to avoid recognition by humoral and cellular immunity (viral escape) is well-documented, but the strength of the immune response needed to cause such a viral escape remains poorly quantified. Several previous studies observed a more rapid escape of HIV from CD8 T cell responses in the acute phase of infection compared to chronic infection. The rate of HIV escape was estimated with the help of simple mathematical models, and results were interpreted to suggest that CD8 T cell responses causing escape in acute HIV infection may be more efficient at killing virus-infected cells than responses that cause escape in chronic infection, or alternatively, that early escapes occur in epitopes mutations in which there is minimal fitness cost to the virus. However, these conclusions were challenged on several grounds, including linkage and interference of multiple escape mutations due to a low population size and because of potential issues associated with modifying the data to estimate escape rates. Here we use a sampling method which does not require data modification to show that previous results on the decline of the viral escape rate with time since infection remain unchanged. However, using this method we also show that estimates of the escape rate are highly sensitive to the time interval between measurements, with longer intervals biasing estimates of the escape rate downwards. Our results thus suggest that data modifications for early and late escapes were not the primary reason for the observed decline in the escape rate with time since infection. However, longer sampling periods for escapes in chronic infection strongly influence estimates of the escape rate. More frequent sampling of viral sequences in chronic infection may improve our understanding of factors influencing the rate of HIV escape from CD8 T cell responses. PMID:29495443

Time Intervals in Sequence Sampling, Not Data Modifications, Have a Major Impact on Estimates of HIV Escape Rates.

PubMed

Ganusov, Vitaly V

2018-02-27

The ability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to avoid recognition by humoral and cellular immunity (viral escape) is well-documented, but the strength of the immune response needed to cause such a viral escape remains poorly quantified. Several previous studies observed a more rapid escape of HIV from CD8 T cell responses in the acute phase of infection compared to chronic infection. The rate of HIV escape was estimated with the help of simple mathematical models, and results were interpreted to suggest that CD8 T cell responses causing escape in acute HIV infection may be more efficient at killing virus-infected cells than responses that cause escape in chronic infection, or alternatively, that early escapes occur in epitopes mutations in which there is minimal fitness cost to the virus. However, these conclusions were challenged on several grounds, including linkage and interference of multiple escape mutations due to a low population size and because of potential issues associated with modifying the data to estimate escape rates. Here we use a sampling method which does not require data modification to show that previous results on the decline of the viral escape rate with time since infection remain unchanged. However, using this method we also show that estimates of the escape rate are highly sensitive to the time interval between measurements, with longer intervals biasing estimates of the escape rate downwards. Our results thus suggest that data modifications for early and late escapes were not the primary reason for the observed decline in the escape rate with time since infection. However, longer sampling periods for escapes in chronic infection strongly influence estimates of the escape rate. More frequent sampling of viral sequences in chronic infection may improve our understanding of factors influencing the rate of HIV escape from CD8 T cell responses.

Spatial Frequency Multiplexing of Fiber-Optic Interferometric Refractive Index Sensors Based on Graded-Index Multimode Fibers

PubMed Central

Liu, Li; Gong, Yuan; Wu, Yu; Zhao, Tian; Wu, Hui-Juan; Rao, Yun-Jiang

2012-01-01

Fiber-optic interferometric sensors based on graded-index multimode fibers have very high refractive-index sensitivity, as we previously demonstrated. In this paper, spatial-frequency multiplexing of this type of fiber-optic refractive index sensors is investigated. It is estimated that multiplexing of more than 10 such sensors is possible. In the multiplexing scheme, one of the sensors is used to investigate the refractive index and temperature responses. The fast Fourier transform (FFT) of the combined reflective spectra is analyzed. The intensity of the FFT spectra is linearly related with the refractive index and is not sensitive to the temperature.

Comparing phase-sensitive and phase-insensitive echolocation target images using a monaural audible sonar.

PubMed

Kuc, Roman

2018-04-01

This paper describes phase-sensitive and phase-insensitive processing of monaural echolocation waveforms to generate target maps. Composite waveforms containing both the emission and echoes are processed to estimate the target impulse response using an audible sonar. Phase-sensitive processing yields the composite signal envelope, while phase-insensitive processing that starts with the composite waveform power spectrum yields the envelope of the autocorrelation function. Analysis and experimental verification show that multiple echoes form an autocorrelation function that produces near-range phantom-reflector artifacts. These artifacts interfere with true target echoes when the first true echo occurs at a time that is less than the total duration of the target echoes. Initial comparison of phase-sensitive and phase-insensitive maps indicates that both display important target features, indicating that phase is not vital. A closer comparison illustrates the improved resolution of phase-sensitive processing, the near-range phantom-reflectors produced by phase-insensitive processing, and echo interference and multiple reflection artifacts that were independent of the processing.

Highly sensitive Europium doped SrSO4 OSL nanophosphor for radiation dosimetry applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patle, Anita; Patil, R. R.; Kulkarni, M. S.; Bhatt, B. C.; Moharil, S. V.

2015-10-01

Highly sensitive Europium doped SrSO4 optically stimulated luminescent (OSL) phosphor was developed by synthesizing a nano phosphor which is treated at 1000 °C. Excellent OSL properties are observed in the developed phosphor and the sensitivity is found to be 1.26 times to that of the commercial Al2O3:C (Landauer Inc.) phosphor based on area integration method. The sample showed a single TL glow peak around 230 °C which is found to reduce by 47% after the OSL readout. Sublinear dose response with the saturation around 100 mGy is observed in this sample which suggests that it is extremely sensitive and hence will be suitable in detecting very low dose levels. Minimum measurable dose on the used set up is estimated to be 1.42 μGy. Practically no fading is observed for first ten days and the phosphor has excellent reusability. High sensitivity, low fading, excellent reusability will make this phosphor suitable for radiation dosimetry applications using OSL.

In vivo sensitivity estimation and imaging acceleration with rotating RF coil arrays at 7 Tesla.

PubMed

Li, Mingyan; Jin, Jin; Zuo, Zhentao; Liu, Feng; Trakic, Adnan; Weber, Ewald; Zhuo, Yan; Xue, Rong; Crozier, Stuart

2015-03-01

Using a new rotating SENSitivity Encoding (rotating-SENSE) algorithm, we have successfully demonstrated that the rotating radiofrequency coil array (RRFCA) was capable of achieving a significant reduction in scan time and a uniform image reconstruction for a homogeneous phantom at 7 Tesla. However, at 7 Tesla the in vivo sensitivity profiles (B1(-)) become distinct at various angular positions. Therefore, sensitivity maps at other angular positions cannot be obtained by numerically rotating the acquired ones. In this work, a novel sensitivity estimation method for the RRFCA was developed and validated with human brain imaging. This method employed a library database and registration techniques to estimate coil sensitivity at an arbitrary angular position. The estimated sensitivity maps were then compared to the acquired sensitivity maps. The results indicate that the proposed method is capable of accurately estimating both magnitude and phase of sensitivity at an arbitrary angular position, which enables us to employ the rotating-SENSE algorithm to accelerate acquisition and reconstruct image. Compared to a stationary coil array with the same number of coil elements, the RRFCA was able to reconstruct images with better quality at a high reduction factor. It is hoped that the proposed rotation-dependent sensitivity estimation algorithm and the acceleration ability of the RRFCA will be particularly useful for ultra high field MRI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

In vivo sensitivity estimation and imaging acceleration with rotating RF coil arrays at 7 Tesla

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mingyan; Jin, Jin; Zuo, Zhentao; Liu, Feng; Trakic, Adnan; Weber, Ewald; Zhuo, Yan; Xue, Rong; Crozier, Stuart

2015-03-01

Using a new rotating SENSitivity Encoding (rotating-SENSE) algorithm, we have successfully demonstrated that the rotating radiofrequency coil array (RRFCA) was capable of achieving a significant reduction in scan time and a uniform image reconstruction for a homogeneous phantom at 7 Tesla. However, at 7 Tesla the in vivo sensitivity profiles (B1-) become distinct at various angular positions. Therefore, sensitivity maps at other angular positions cannot be obtained by numerically rotating the acquired ones. In this work, a novel sensitivity estimation method for the RRFCA was developed and validated with human brain imaging. This method employed a library database and registration techniques to estimate coil sensitivity at an arbitrary angular position. The estimated sensitivity maps were then compared to the acquired sensitivity maps. The results indicate that the proposed method is capable of accurately estimating both magnitude and phase of sensitivity at an arbitrary angular position, which enables us to employ the rotating-SENSE algorithm to accelerate acquisition and reconstruct image. Compared to a stationary coil array with the same number of coil elements, the RRFCA was able to reconstruct images with better quality at a high reduction factor. It is hoped that the proposed rotation-dependent sensitivity estimation algorithm and the acceleration ability of the RRFCA will be particularly useful for ultra high field MRI.

Temperature response of respiration across heterogeneous microtopography in the Arctic tundra, Utqiaġvik, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkman, E.; Zona, D.; Tang, Y.; Gioli, B.; Lipson, D.; Oechel, W. C.

2017-12-01

The response of ecosystem respiration to warming in the Arctic is not well constrained, partly due to the presence of ice-wedge polygons in continuous permafrost areas. These formations lead to substantial variation in vegetation, soil moisture, water table, and active layer depth over the meter scale that can drive respiratory carbon loss. Accurate calculations of in-situ temperature sensitivities (Q10) are vital for the prediction of future Arctic emissions, and while the eddy covariance technique has commonly been used to determine the diurnal and season patterns of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, the lack of suitable dark periods in the Arctic summer has limited our ability to estimate and interpret ecosystem respiration. To therefore improve our understanding of and define controls on ecosystem respiration, we directly compared CO2 fluxes measured from automated chambers across the main local polygonised landscape forms (high and low centers, polygon rims, and polygon troughs) to estimates from an adjacent eddy covariance tower. Low-centered polygons and polygon troughs had the greatest cumulative respiration rates, and ecosystem type appeared to be the most important explanatory variable for these rates. Despite the difference in absolute respiration rates, Q10 was surprisingly similar across all microtopographic features, despite contrasting water levels and vegetation types. Conversely, Q10 varied temporally, with higher values during the early and late summer and lower values during the peak growing season. Finally, good agreement was found between chamber and tower based Q10 estimates during the peak growing season. Overall, this study suggests that it is possible to simplify estimates of the temperature sensitivity of respiration across heterogeneous landscapes, but that seasonal changes in Q10 should be incorporated into current and future model simulations.

Task-based detectability comparison of exponential transformation of free-response operating characteristic (EFROC) curve and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khobragade, P.; Fan, Jiahua; Rupcich, Franco; Crotty, Dominic J.; Gilat Schmidt, Taly

2016-03-01

This study quantitatively evaluated the performance of the exponential transformation of the free-response operating characteristic curve (EFROC) metric, with the Channelized Hotelling Observer (CHO) as a reference. The CHO has been used for image quality assessment of reconstruction algorithms and imaging systems and often it is applied to study the signal-location-known cases. The CHO also requires a large set of images to estimate the covariance matrix. In terms of clinical applications, this assumption and requirement may be unrealistic. The newly developed location-unknown EFROC detectability metric is estimated from the confidence scores reported by a model observer. Unlike the CHO, EFROC does not require a channelization step and is a non-parametric detectability metric. There are few quantitative studies available on application of the EFROC metric, most of which are based on simulation data. This study investigated the EFROC metric using experimental CT data. A phantom with four low contrast objects: 3mm (14 HU), 5mm (7HU), 7mm (5 HU) and 10 mm (3 HU) was scanned at dose levels ranging from 25 mAs to 270 mAs and reconstructed using filtered backprojection. The area under the curve values for CHO (AUC) and EFROC (AFE) were plotted with respect to different dose levels. The number of images required to estimate the non-parametric AFE metric was calculated for varying tasks and found to be less than the number of images required for parametric CHO estimation. The AFE metric was found to be more sensitive to changes in dose than the CHO metric. This increased sensitivity and the assumption of unknown signal location may be useful for investigating and optimizing CT imaging methods. Future work is required to validate the AFE metric against human observers.

Ocean warming and acidification: Unifying physiological principles linking organism response to ecosystem change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pörtner, H. O.; Bock, C.; Lannig, G.; Lucassen, M.; Mark, F. C.; Stark, A.; Walther, K.; Wittmann, A.

2011-12-01

The effects of ocean warming and acidification on individual species of marine ectothermic animals may be based on some common denominators, i.e. physiological responses that can be assumed to reflect unifying principles, common to all marine animal phyla. Identification of these principles requires studies, which reach beyond the species-specific response, and consider multiple stressors, for example temperature, CO2 or extreme hypoxia. Analyses of response and acclimation include functional traits of physiological performance on various levels of biological organisation, from changes in the transcriptome to patterns of acid-base regulation and whole animal thermal tolerance. Conclusions are substantiated by comparisons of species and phyla from temperate, Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems and also benefit from the interpretation of paleo-patterns based on the use of a unifying physiological concept, suitable to integrate relevant environmental factors into a more comprehensive picture. Studying the differential specialization of animals on climate regimes and their sensitivity to climate leads to improved understanding of ongoing and past ecosystem change and should then support more reliable projections of future scenarios. For example, accumulating CO2 causes disturbances in acid-base status. Resilience to ocean acidification may be reflected in the capacity to compensate for these disturbances or their secondary effects. Ion and pH regulation comprise thermally sensitive active and passive transfer processes across membranes. Specific responses of ion transporter genes and their products to temperature and CO2 were found in fish, crustaceans and bivalves. However, compensation may cause unfavourable shifts in energy budget and beyond that hamper cellular and mitochondrial metabolism, which are directly linked to the animal's aerobic performance window. In crabs, oysters and, possibly, fishes, a narrowing of the thermal window is caused by moderate increases in CO2 levels. Furthermore, a decrease in the efficiency of energy production may occur and affect growth and fitness as well as larval development. Different sensitivities of life history stages indicate physiologically sensitive bottlenecks during the life cycle of marine organisms. Available evidence suggests that the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) provides access to the physiological mechanisms closely defining the sensitivities and responses of species to various stressors. It provides causality and quantifies the levels and changes of performance and resistance, and supports more realistic estimates of species and ecosystem sensitivities to environmental change. The emerging picture of differential sensitivities across animal phyla is in line with existing categorizations of sensitivities from palaeo-observations during the Permian-Triassic mass extinctions (A.H. Knoll et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters 256, 295-313, 2007).

Behavior of sensitivities in the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation: Implications for parameter estimation and sampling design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1987-01-01

The spatial and temporal variability of sensitivities has a significant impact on parameter estimation and sampling design for studies of solute transport in porous media. Physical insight into the behavior of sensitivities is offered through an analysis of analytically derived sensitivities for the one-dimensional form of the advection-dispersion equation. When parameters are estimated in regression models of one-dimensional transport, the spatial and temporal variability in sensitivities influences variance and covariance of parameter estimates. Several principles account for the observed influence of sensitivities on parameter uncertainty. (1) Information about a physical parameter may be most accurately gained at points in space and time with a high sensitivity to the parameter. (2) As the distance of observation points from the upstream boundary increases, maximum sensitivity to velocity during passage of the solute front increases and the consequent estimate of velocity tends to have lower variance. (3) The frequency of sampling must be “in phase” with the S shape of the dispersion sensitivity curve to yield the most information on dispersion. (4) The sensitivity to the dispersion coefficient is usually at least an order of magnitude less than the sensitivity to velocity. (5) The assumed probability distribution of random error in observations of solute concentration determines the form of the sensitivities. (6) If variance in random error in observations is large, trends in sensitivities of observation points may be obscured by noise and thus have limited value in predicting variance in parameter estimates among designs. (7) Designs that minimize the variance of one parameter may not necessarily minimize the variance of other parameters. (8) The time and space interval over which an observation point is sensitive to a given parameter depends on the actual values of the parameters in the underlying physical system.

Inorganic mercury detection by valve closure response in the freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea: integration of time and water metal concentration changes.

PubMed

Tran, Damien; Fournier, Elodie; Durrieu, Gilles; Massabuau, Jean-Charles

2007-07-01

The objective of the present study was to monitor water-quality assessment by a biological method. Optimum dissolved inorganic mercury sensitivity in the freshwater bivalve Corbicula fluminea was estimated using a combined approach to determine their potentials and limits in detecting contaminants. Detection by bivalves is based on shell closure, a protective strategy when exposed to a water contaminant. To take the rate of spontaneous closures into account, stress associated with fixation by one valve in common valvometers was integrated, and the spontaneous rhythm was associated with daily activity. The response in conditions where the probability of spontaneous closing is the lowest was thus taken into account. To develop dose-response curves, impedance valvometry, in which lightweight impedance electrodes are applied to study free-ranging animals in low-stress conditions, also was used combined with a new analytical approach. The logistic regression dose-response curves take into account variations in both response time and metal concentration in water to significantly improve the methods aiming at determining the optimal sensitivity threshold response. This approach demonstrates that in C. fluminea, inorganic mercury concentrations under the range of 2.0 to 5.1 microg/L (95% confidence interval) cannot be detected within 5 h of addition.

SCALE Continuous-Energy Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

DOE PAGES

Perfetti, Christopher M.; Rearden, Bradley T.; Martin, William R.

2016-02-25

Sensitivity coefficients describe the fractional change in a system response that is induced by changes to system parameters and nuclear data. The Tools for Sensitivity and UNcertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) code within the SCALE code system makes use of eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients for an extensive number of criticality safety applications, including quantifying the data-induced uncertainty in the eigenvalue of critical systems, assessing the neutronic similarity between different critical systems, and guiding nuclear data adjustment studies. The need to model geometrically complex systems with improved fidelity and the desire to extend TSUNAMI analysis to advanced applications has motivated the developmentmore » of a methodology for calculating sensitivity coefficients in continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo applications. The Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) and Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) eigenvalue sensitivity methods were recently implemented in the CE-KENO framework of the SCALE code system to enable TSUNAMI-3D to perform eigenvalue sensitivity calculations using continuous-energy Monte Carlo methods. This work provides a detailed description of the theory behind the CLUTCH method and describes in detail its implementation. This work explores the improvements in eigenvalue sensitivity coefficient accuracy that can be gained through the use of continuous-energy sensitivity methods and also compares several sensitivity methods in terms of computational efficiency and memory requirements.« less

An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

1989-01-01

The method proposed for estimating sensitivity derivatives is based on the Recursive Quadratic Programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This method is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RQP algorithm. Initial testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity.

Importance of Survey Design for Studying the Epidemiology of Emerging Tobacco Product Use Among Youth.

PubMed

Delnevo, Cristine D; Gundersen, Daniel A; Manderski, Michelle T B; Giovenco, Daniel P; Giovino, Gary A

2017-08-15

Accurate surveillance is critical for monitoring the epidemiology of emerging tobacco products in the United States, and survey science suggests that survey response format can impact prevalence estimates. We utilized data from the 2014 New Jersey Youth Tobacco Survey (n = 3,909) to compare estimates of the prevalence of 4 behaviors (ever hookah use, current hookah use, ever e-cigarette use, and current e-cigarette use) among New Jersey high school students, as assessed using "check-all-that-apply" questions, with estimates measured by means of "forced-choice" questions. Measurement discrepancies were apparent for all 4 outcomes, with the forced-choice questions yielding prevalence estimates approximately twice those of the check-all-that-apply questions, and agreement was fair to moderate. The sensitivity of the check-all-that-apply questions, treating the forced-choice format as the "gold standard," ranged from 38.1% (current hookah use) to 58.3% (ever e-cigarette use), indicating substantial false-negative rates. These findings highlight the impact of question response format on prevalence estimates of emerging tobacco products among youth and suggest that estimates generated by means of check-all-that-apply questions may be biased downward. Alternative survey designs should be considered to avoid check-all-that-apply response formats, and researchers should use caution when interpreting tobacco use data obtained from check-all-that-apply formats. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Calibrated fMRI in the Medial Temporal Lobe During a Memory Encoding Task

PubMed Central

Restom, Khaled; Perthen, Joanna E.; Liu, Thomas T.

2008-01-01

Prior measures of the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) and cerebral blood flow (CBF) responses to a memory encoding task within the medial temporal lobe have suggested that the coupling between functional changes in CBF and changes in the cerebral metabolic rate of oxgyen (CMRO2) may be tighter in the medial temporal lobe as compared to the primary sensory areas. In this study, we used a calibrated functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) approach to directly estimate memory-encoding-related changes in CMRO2 and to assess the coupling between CBF and CMRO2 in the medial temporal lobe. The CBF-CMRO2 coupling ratio was estimated using a linear fit to the flow and metabolism changes observed across subjects. In addition, we examined the effect of region-of-interest (ROI) selection on the estimates. In response to the memory encoding task, CMRO2 increased by 23.1% ± 8.8 to 25.3% ± 5.7 (depending upon ROI), with an estimated CBF-CMRO2 coupling ratio of 1.66 ± 0.07 to 1.75± 0.16. There was not a significant effect of ROI selection on either the CMRO2 or coupling ratio estimates. The observed coupling ratios were significantly lower than the values (2 to 4.5) that have been reported in previous calibrated fMRI studies of the visual and motor cortices. In addition, the estimated coupling ratio was found to be less sensitive to the calibration procedure for functional responses in the medial temporal lobe as compared to the primary sensory areas. PMID:18329291

Measurement and control of bias in patient reported outcomes using multidimensional item response theory.

PubMed

Dowling, N Maritza; Bolt, Daniel M; Deng, Sien; Li, Chenxi

2016-05-26

Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures play a key role in the advancement of patient-centered care research. The accuracy of inferences, relevance of predictions, and the true nature of the associations made with PRO data depend on the validity of these measures. Errors inherent to self-report measures can seriously bias the estimation of constructs assessed by the scale. A well-documented disadvantage of self-report measures is their sensitivity to response style (RS) effects such as the respondent's tendency to select the extremes of a rating scale. Although the biasing effect of extreme responding on constructs measured by self-reported tools has been widely acknowledged and studied across disciplines, little attention has been given to the development and systematic application of methodologies to assess and control for this effect in PRO measures. We review the methodological approaches that have been proposed to study extreme RS effects (ERS). We applied a multidimensional item response theory model to simultaneously estimate and correct for the impact of ERS on trait estimation in a PRO instrument. Model estimates were used to study the biasing effects of ERS on sum scores for individuals with the same amount of the targeted trait but different levels of ERS. We evaluated the effect of joint estimation of multiple scales and ERS on trait estimates and demonstrated the biasing effects of ERS on these trait estimates when used as explanatory variables. A four-dimensional model accounting for ERS bias provided a better fit to the response data. Increasing levels of ERS showed bias in total scores as a function of trait estimates. The effect of ERS was greater when the pattern of extreme responding was the same across multiple scales modeled jointly. The estimated item category intercepts provided evidence of content independent category selection. Uncorrected trait estimates used as explanatory variables in prediction models showed downward bias. A comprehensive evaluation of the psychometric quality and soundness of PRO assessment measures should incorporate the study of ERS as a potential nuisance dimension affecting the accuracy and validity of scores and the impact of PRO data in clinical research and decision making.

Women are More Sensitive than Men to Prior Trial Events on the Stop Signal Task

PubMed Central

Thakkar, Katharine N.; Congdon, Eliza; Poldrack, Russell A.; Sabb, Fred W.; London, Edythe D.; Cannon, Tyrone D.; Bilder, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Sexual dimorphism in the brain and cognition is a topic of widespread interest. Many studies of sex differences have focused on visuospatial and verbal abilities but few studies have investigated sex differences in executive functions. We examined two key components of executive function—response inhibition and response monitoring—in healthy men (n=285) and women (n=346) performing the Stop-signal task. In this task, participants are required to make a key press to a stimulus, unless a tone is presented at some delay following the initial stimulus presentation; on these infrequent trials, participants are instructed to inhibit their planned response. Response inhibition was assessed with an estimate of the latency needed to inhibit a response (stop-signal reaction time), and response monitoring was measured by calculating the degree to which participants adjusted their reaction times based on the immediately preceding trial (e.g. speeding following correct trials and slowing following errors). There were no sex differences in overall accuracy or response inhibition but women showed greater sensitivity to trial history. Women sped up more than men following correct “Go” trials, and slowed down more than men following errors. These small but statistically significant effects (Cohen’s d=0.25–0.3) suggest more flexible adjustments in speed-accuracy trade-offs in women and greater cognitive flexibility associated with the responsive control of action. PMID:24754812

Estimating sensitivity and specificity for technology assessment based on observer studies.

PubMed

Nishikawa, Robert M; Pesce, Lorenzo L

2013-07-01

The goal of this study was to determine the accuracy and precision of using scores from a receiver operating characteristic rating scale to estimate sensitivity and specificity. We used data collected in a previous study that measured the improvements in radiologists' ability to classify mammographic microcalcification clusters as benign or malignant with and without the use of a computer-aided diagnosis scheme. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated from the rating data from a question that directly asked the radiologists their biopsy recommendations, which was used as the "truth," because it is the actual recall decision, thus it is their subjective truth. By thresholding the rating data, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for different threshold values. Because of interreader and intrareader variability, estimated sensitivity and specificity values for individual readers could be as much as 100% in error when using rating data compared to using the biopsy recommendation data. When pooled together, the estimates using thresholding the rating data were in good agreement with sensitivity and specificity estimated from the recommendation data. However, the statistical power of the rating data estimates was lower. By simply asking the observer his or her explicit recommendation (eg, biopsy or no biopsy), sensitivity and specificity can be measured directly, giving a more accurate description of empirical variability and the power of the study can be maximized. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

β-Adrenoceptor-Mediated Relaxation of Carbachol-Pre-Contracted Mouse Detrusor.

PubMed

Propping, Stefan; Newe, Manja; Lorenz, Kristina; Wirth, Manfred P; Ravens, Ursula

2015-01-01

To study the β-adrenoceptor subtypes involved in the relaxation responses to (-)-isoprenaline in carbachol-pre-contracted (CCh) mouse detrusor muscle with intact and denuded mucosa. Isolated muscle strips from the urinary bladder of male C57BL6 mice or β2-adrenoceptor knockout mice were pre-contracted with CCh, 1 µM and relaxed with increasing concentrations of the β-adrenoceptor (β-AR) agonist (-)-isoprenaline and forskolin. For estimating the β-AR subtypes involved, subtype-selective receptor blockers were used, that is, CGP 20712A (β1-ARs), ICI 118,551 (β2-ARs), and L748,337 (β3-ARs). Unlike in KCl-pre-contracted muscle, the mucosa did not affect the sensitivity of the relaxation response to (-)-isoprenaline in CCh-pre-contracted murine detrusor strips. Increasing concentrations of (-)-isoprenaline produced a biphasic concentration-relaxation response without any difference both during the presence and absence of mucosa. The relaxation fraction produced by low (-)-isoprenaline concentrations was mediated by β2-AR as evidenced by a shift of the concentration-response curve to higher concentrations with ICI 118,551, but not with CGP 20712A and L748,337, and by the absence of this fraction in β2-AR-KO mice. The relaxation response with low sensitivity to (-)-isoprenaline was not affected by any of the β-AR subtype-selective blockers and was the only response detected in detrusor strips from β2-AR-KO mice. In CCh-pre-contracted mouse detrusor, β2-ARs are responsible for the relaxation component with high sensitivity to (-)-isoprenaline as indicated by the conversion of a biphasic into a monophasic CRC with ICI 118,551 or by its absence in β2-AR KO mice. The mucosa does not impair relaxation under these conditions. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

2017-03-01

Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Measuring hearing in the harbor seal (Phoca vitulina): Comparison of behavioral and auditory brainstem response techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Lawrence F.; Anderson, Rindy C.; Bowles, Ann E.; Yochem, Pamela K.

2003-01-01

Auditory brainstem response (ABR) and standard behavioral methods were compared by measuring in-air audiograms for an adult female harbor seal (Phoca vitulina). Behavioral audiograms were obtained using two techniques: the method of constant stimuli and the staircase method. Sensitivity was tested from 0.250 to 30 kHz. The seal showed good sensitivity from 6 to 12 kHz [best sensitivity 8.1 dB (re 20 μPa2.s) RMS at 8 kHz]. The staircase method yielded thresholds that were lower by 10 dB on average than the method of constant stimuli. ABRs were recorded at 2, 4, 8, 16, and 22 kHz and showed a similar best range (8-16 kHz). ABR thresholds averaged 5.7 dB higher than behavioral thresholds at 2, 4, and 8 kHz. ABRs were at least 7 dB lower at 16 kHz, and approximately 3 dB higher at 22 kHz. The better sensitivity of ABRs at higher frequencies could have reflected differences in the seal's behavior during ABR testing and/or bandwidth characteristics of test stimuli. These results agree with comparisons of ABR and behavioral methods performed in other recent studies and indicate that ABR methods represent a good alternative for estimating hearing range and sensitivity in pinnipeds, particularly when time is a critical factor and animals are untrained.

A tertiary care experience with paclitaxel and cetuximab as palliative chemotherapy in platinum sensitive and nonsensitive in head and neck cancers

PubMed Central

Noronha, Vanita; Patil, Vijay M.; Joshi, Amit; Bhattacharjee, Atanu; Paul, Davinder; Dhumal, Sachin; Juvekar, Shashikant; Arya, Supreeta; Prabhash, Kumar

2017-01-01

Background: The combination of paclitaxel and cetuximab (PaCe) has led to an encouraging response rate in Phase 2 setting with limited toxicity. The aim of our study was to assess the efficacy of this regimen in our setting in platinum sensitive and nonsensitive patients. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of head and neck cancer patients treated with weekly PaCe as palliative chemotherapy between May 2010 and August 2014. The standard schedule of cetuximab along with 80 mg/m2 of weekly paclitaxel was administered till either disease progression or withdrawal of patient's consent. The toxicity and response were noted in accordance with CTCAE version 4.02 and RECIST version 1.1 criteria, respectively. The response rates between platinum sensitive and nonsensitive patients were compared by Chi-square test. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated by Kaplan–Meier survival method and log-rank test was used for comparison. Cox proportional hazard model was used for identification of factors affecting PFS and OS. Results: One Hundred patients with a median age of 52 years (interquartile range: 46–56 years) were included. Forty-five patients (45%) were platinum insensitive, whereas 55 patients (55%) were platinum sensitive. In platinum insensitive patients and sensitive patients, the response rates were 38.5% and 22.2%, respectively (P = 0.104), whereas the symptomatic benefit in pain was seen in 89.5% and 71.7%, respectively (P = 0.044). The median PFS in platinum insensitive and sensitive patients were 150 and 152 days, respectively (P = 0.932), whereas the median OS was 256 days (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 168.2–343.8 days) and 314 days (95% CI: 227.6–400.4 days), respectively (P = 0.23). Nineteen patients (19%) had grades 3–4 adverse events during chemotherapy. Conclusion: Weekly paclitaxel combined with cetuximab has promising efficacy and good tolerability in the palliative setting in advanced head and neck cancer in both platinum sensitive and insensitive patients. PMID:28413788

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Computational Sensitivity Analysis for the Aerodynamic Design of Supersonic and Hypersonic Air Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-18

response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and... reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information...five times the speed of sound. For reference, the SR-71 Blackbird , the fastest manned airbreathing typically flew at three times the speed of sound

Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, Mark A.; Warren, Robert J., II; Baldrian, Petr; Crowther, Thomas W.; Maynard, Daniel S.; Oldfield, Emily E.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; King, Joshua R.

2014-07-01

Decomposition of organic matter strongly influences ecosystem carbon storage. In Earth-system models, climate is a predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter. This assumption is based on the mean response of decomposition to climate, yet there is a growing appreciation in other areas of global change science that projections based on mean responses can be irrelevant and misleading. We test whether climate controls on the decomposition rate of dead wood--a carbon stock estimated to represent 73 +/- 6 Pg carbon globally--are sensitive to the spatial scale from which they are inferred. We show that the common assumption that climate is a predominant control on decomposition is supported only when local-scale variation is aggregated into mean values. Disaggregated data instead reveal that local-scale factors explain 73% of the variation in wood decomposition, and climate only 28%. Further, the temperature sensitivity of decomposition estimated from local versus mean analyses is 1.3-times greater. Fundamental issues with mean correlations were highlighted decades ago, yet mean climate-decomposition relationships are used to generate simulations that inform management and adaptation under environmental change. Our results suggest that to predict accurately how decomposition will respond to climate change, models must account for local-scale factors that control regional dynamics.

Establishment and validation of a method for multi-dose irradiation of cells in 96-well microplates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abatzoglou, Ioannis; Zois, Christos E.; Pouliliou, Stamatia

2013-02-15

Highlights: ► We established a method for multi-dose irradiation of cell cultures within a 96-well plate. ► Equations to adjust to preferable dose levels are produced and provided. ► Up to eight different dose levels can be tested in one microplate. ► This method results in fast and reliable estimation of radiation dose–response curves. -- Abstract: Microplates are useful tools in chemistry, biotechnology and molecular biology. In radiobiology research, these can be also applied to assess the effect of a certain radiation dose delivered to the whole microplate, to test radio-sensitivity, radio-sensitization or radio-protection. Whether different radiation doses can bemore » accurately applied to a single 96-well plate to further facilitate and accelerated research by one hand and spare funds on the other, is a question dealt in the current paper. Following repeated ion-chamber, TLD and radiotherapy planning dosimetry we established a method for multi-dose irradiation of cell cultures within a 96-well plate, which allows an accurate delivery of desired doses in sequential columns of the microplate. Up to eight different dose levels can be tested in one microplate. This method results in fast and reliable estimation of radiation dose–response curves.« less

Evaluation of a Mysis bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, S.R.; Bennett, D.H.

2002-01-01

Direct approaches for estimating the feeding rate of the opossum shrimp Mysis relicta can be hampered by variable gut residence time (evacuation rate models) and non-linear functional responses (clearance rate models). Bioenergetics modeling provides an alternative method, but the reliability of this approach needs to be evaluated using independent measures of growth and food consumption. In this study, we measured growth and food consumption for M. relicta and compared experimental results with those predicted from a Mysis bioenergetics model. For Mysis reared at 10??C, model predictions were not significantly different from observed values. Moreover, decomposition of mean square error indicated that 70% of the variation between model predictions and observed values was attributable to random error. On average, model predictions were within 12% of observed values. A sensitivity analysis revealed that Mysis respiration and prey energy density were the most sensitive parameters affecting model output. By accounting for uncertainty (95% CLs) in Mysis respiration, we observed a significant improvement in the accuracy of model output (within 5% of observed values), illustrating the importance of sensitive input parameters for model performance. These findings help corroborate the Mysis bioenergetics model and demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for estimating Mysis feeding rate.

Sensor fusion for structural tilt estimation using an acceleration-based tilt sensor and a gyroscope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Cheng; Park, Jong-Woong; Spencer, B. F., Jr.; Moon, Do-Soo; Fan, Jiansheng

2017-10-01

A tilt sensor can provide useful information regarding the health of structural systems. Most existing tilt sensors are gravity/acceleration based and can provide accurate measurements of static responses. However, for dynamic tilt, acceleration can dramatically affect the measured responses due to crosstalk. Thus, dynamic tilt measurement is still a challenging problem. One option is to integrate the output of a gyroscope sensor, which measures the angular velocity, to obtain the tilt; however, problems arise because the low-frequency sensitivity of the gyroscope is poor. This paper proposes a new approach to dynamic tilt measurements, fusing together information from a MEMS-based gyroscope and an acceleration-based tilt sensor. The gyroscope provides good estimates of the tilt at higher frequencies, whereas the acceleration measurements are used to estimate the tilt at lower frequencies. The Tikhonov regularization approach is employed to fuse these measurements together and overcome the ill-posed nature of the problem. The solution is carried out in the frequency domain and then implemented in the time domain using FIR filters to ensure stability. The proposed method is validated numerically and experimentally to show that it performs well in estimating both the pseudo-static and dynamic tilt measurements.

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

Investigation of Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) and a Dynamic Loads Balance to Predict Launch Vehicle Buffet Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuster, David M.; Panda, Jayanta; Ross, James C.; Roozeboom, Nettie H.; Burnside, Nathan J.; Ngo, Christina L.; Kumagai, Hiro; Sellers, Marvin; Powell, Jessica M.; Sekula, Martin K.;

A luminescent hybridoma-based biosensor for rapid detection of V. cholerae upon induction of calcium signaling pathway.

PubMed

Zamani, Parichehr; Sajedi, Reza H; Hosseinkhani, Saman; Zeinoddini, Mehdi; Bakhshi, Bita

2016-05-15

In this study, a hybridoma based biosensor was developed for rapid, sensitive and selective detection of Vibrio cholerae O1 which converts the antibody-antigen binding to bioluminescence light. After investigation on hybridoma performance, the biosensor was constructed by transfecting specific hybridoma cells with aequorin reporter gene and the bioluminescence activities of stable biosensor were measured. The sensitivity of biosensor was as few as 50 CFU/ml and it showed no responses to other entric bacteria. Moreover, the response time of biosensor was estimated in 7th second which means this method is considerably faster than many available detection assays. In addition, this biosensor was successfully applied to V. cholerae detection in environmental samples with no significant loss in sensitivity, demonstrating our proposed biosensor provides a sensitive and reliable method for detection of V. cholerae in natural samples. The application of whole hybridoma cell directly as a sensing element in biosensor construction which mentioned for the first time in present study suggests that hybridoma cells could provide a valuable tool for future studies in both basic and diagnostic sciences and could be considered as a fast and specific sensing element for detection of other pathogens in different applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ozone risk assessment in three oak species as affected by soil water availability.

PubMed

Hoshika, Yasutomo; Moura, Barbara; Paoletti, Elena

2018-03-01

To derive ozone (O 3 ) dose-response relationships for three European oak species (Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, and Quercus robur) under a range of soil water availability, an experiment was carried out with 2-year-old potted seedlings exposed to three levels of water availability in the soil and three levels of O 3 pollution for one growing season in an ozone free-air controlled exposure (FACE) facility. Total biomass losses were estimated relative to a hypothetical clean air at the pre-industrial age, i.e., at 10 ppb as daily average (M24). A stomatal conductance model was parameterized with inputs from the three species for calculating the stomatal O 3 flux. Exposure-based (M24, W126, and AOT40) and flux-based (phytotoxic O 3 dose (POD) 0-3 ) dose-response relationships were estimated and critical levels (CL) were calculated for a 5% decline of total biomass. Results show that water availability can significantly affect O 3 risk assessment. In fact, dose-response relationships calculated per individual species at each water availability level resulted in very different CLs and best metrics. In a simplified approach where species were aggregated on the basis of their O 3 sensitivity, the best metric was POD 0.5 , with a CL of 6.8 mmol m -2 for the less O 3 -sensitive species Q. ilex and Q. pubescens and of 3.5 mmol m -2 for the more O 3 -sensitive species Q. robur. The performance of POD 0 , however, was very similar to that of POD 0.5 , and thus a CL of 6.9 mmol m -2 POD 0 and 3.6 mmol m -2 POD 0 for the less and more O 3 -sensitive oak species may be also recommended. These CLs can be applied to oak ecosystems at variable water availability in the soil. We conclude that POD y is able to reconcile the effects of O 3 and soil water availability on species-specific oak productivity.

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

PubMed

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sensitivity of ALOS/PALSAR imagery to forest degradation by fire in northern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Flora da Silva Ramos Vieira; dos Santos, João Roberto; Galvão, Lênio Soares; Xaud, Haron Abrahim Magalhães

2016-07-01

We evaluated the sensitivity of the full polarimetric Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS), to forest degradation caused by fires in northern Amazon, Brazil. We searched for changes in PALSAR signal and tri-dimensional polarimetric responses for different classes of fire disturbance defined by fire frequency and severity. Since the aboveground biomass (AGB) is affected by fire, multiple regression models to estimate AGB were obtained for the whole set of coherent and incoherent attributes (general model) and for each set separately (specific models). The results showed that the polarimetric L-band PALSAR attributes were sensitive to variations in canopy structure and AGB caused by forest fire. However, except for the unburned and thrice burned classes, no single PALSAR attribute was able to discriminate between the intermediate classes of forest degradation by fire. Both the coherent and incoherent polarimetric attributes were important to explain AGB variations in tropical forests affected by fire. The HV backscattering coefficient, anisotropy, double-bounce component, orientation angle, volume index and HH-VV phase difference were PALSAR attributes selected from multiple regression analysis to estimate AGB. The general regression model, combining phase and power radar metrics, presented better results than specific models using coherent or incoherent attributes. The polarimetric responses indicated the dominance of VV-oriented backscattering in primary forest and lightly burned forests. The HH-oriented backscattering predominated in heavily and frequently burned forests. The results suggested a greater contribution of horizontally arranged constituents such as fallen trunks or branches in areas severely affected by fire.

Dynamic Modeling of Cell-Free Biochemical Networks Using Effective Kinetic Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-16

sensitivity value was the maximum uncertainty in that value estimated by the Sobol method. 2.4. Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Reduced Order Coagulation...sensitivity analysis, using the variance-based method of Sobol , to estimate which parameters controlled the performance of the reduced order model [69]. We...Environment. Comput. Sci. Eng. 2007, 9, 90–95. 69. Sobol , I. Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates

Generalized sensitivity analysis of the minimal model of the intravenous glucose tolerance test.

PubMed

Munir, Mohammad

2018-06-01

Generalized sensitivity functions characterize the sensitivity of the parameter estimates with respect to the nominal parameters. We observe from the generalized sensitivity analysis of the minimal model of the intravenous glucose tolerance test that the measurements of insulin, 62 min after the administration of the glucose bolus into the experimental subject's body, possess no information about the parameter estimates. The glucose measurements possess the information about the parameter estimates up to three hours. These observations have been verified by the parameter estimation of the minimal model. The standard errors of the estimates and crude Monte Carlo process also confirm this observation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calibrating Physical Parameters in House Models Using Aggregate AC Power Demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Yannan; Stevens, Andrew J.; Lian, Jianming

For residential houses, the air conditioning (AC) units are one of the major resources that can provide significant flexibility in energy use for the purpose of demand response. To quantify the flexibility, the characteristics of all the houses need to be accurately estimated, so that certain house models can be used to predict the dynamics of the house temperatures in order to adjust the setpoints accordingly to provide demand response while maintaining the same comfort levels. In this paper, we propose an approach using the Reverse Monte Carlo modeling method and aggregate house models to calibrate the distribution parameters ofmore » the house models for a population of residential houses. Given the aggregate AC power demand for the population, the approach can successfully estimate the distribution parameters for the sensitive physical parameters based on our previous uncertainty quantification study, such as the mean of the floor areas of the houses.« less

The Role of Response Bias in Perceptual Learning

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Sensory judgments improve with practice. Such perceptual learning is often thought to reflect an increase in perceptual sensitivity. However, it may also represent a decrease in response bias, with unpracticed observers acting in part on a priori hunches rather than sensory evidence. To examine whether this is the case, 55 observers practiced making a basic auditory judgment (yes/no amplitude-modulation detection or forced-choice frequency/amplitude discrimination) over multiple days. With all tasks, bias was present initially, but decreased with practice. Notably, this was the case even on supposedly “bias-free,” 2-alternative forced-choice, tasks. In those tasks, observers did not favor the same response throughout (stationary bias), but did favor whichever response had been correct on previous trials (nonstationary bias). Means of correcting for bias are described. When applied, these showed that at least 13% of perceptual learning on a forced-choice task was due to reduction in bias. In other situations, changes in bias were shown to obscure the true extent of learning, with changes in estimated sensitivity increasing once bias was corrected for. The possible causes of bias and the implications for our understanding of perceptual learning are discussed. PMID:25867609

Accuracy of HIV-related risk behaviors reported by female sex workers, Iran: a method to quantify measurement bias in marginalized populations.

PubMed

Mirzazadeh, Ali; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Navadeh, Soodabeh; McFarland, Willi; Mohammad, Kazem

2013-02-01

We quantified discrepancies in reported behaviors of female sex workers (FSW) by comparing 63 face-to-face interviews (FTFI) to in-depth interviews (IDI), with corroboration of the directions and magnitudes of reporting by a panel of psychologists who work with FSW. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were assessed for FTFI responses using IDI as a "gold standard". Sensitivities were lowest in reporting symptoms of sexually transmitted infections (63.9 %), finding sex partners in venues (52.4 %) and not receiving HIV test results (66.7 %). Specificities (all >83 %) and PPVs (all >74.0 %) were higher than NPV. FSW significantly under-reported number of clients, sexual contacts and non-condom use sex acts with clients and number of days engaging in sex work in the preceding week. This study provides a quantified gauge of reporting biases in FSW behaviors. Such estimates and methods help better understand true HIV risk in marginalized populations and calibrate survey estimates accordingly.

Sensitivity of Global Methane Bayesian Inversion to Surface Observation Data Sets and Chemical-Transport Model Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lew, E. J.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Karmakar, S.; Rice, A. L.; Khalil, A. K.

2017-12-01

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. In efforts to control emissions, a careful examination of the methane budget and source strengths is required. To determine methane surface fluxes, Bayesian methods are often used to provide top-down constraints. Inverse modeling derives unknown fluxes using observed methane concentrations, a chemical transport model (CTM) and prior information. The Bayesian inversion reduces prior flux uncertainties by exploiting information content in the data. While the Bayesian formalism produces internal error estimates of source fluxes, systematic or external errors that arise from user choices in the inversion scheme are often much larger. Here we examine model sensitivity and uncertainty of our inversion under different observation data sets and CTM grid resolution. We compare posterior surface fluxes using the data product GLOBALVIEW-CH4 against the event-level molar mixing ratio data available from NOAA. GLOBALVIEW-CH4 is a collection of CH4 concentration estimates from 221 sites, collected by 12 laboratories, that have been interpolated and extracted to provide weekly records from 1984-2008. Differently, the event-level NOAA data records methane mixing ratios field measurements from 102 sites, containing sampling frequency irregularities and gaps in time. Furthermore, the sampling platform types used by the data sets may influence the posterior flux estimates, namely fixed surface, tower, ship and aircraft sites. To explore the sensitivity of the posterior surface fluxes to the observation network geometry, inversions composed of all sites, only aircraft, only ship, only tower and only fixed surface sites, are performed and compared. Also, we investigate the sensitivity of the error reduction associated with the resolution of the GEOS-Chem simulation (4°×5° vs 2°×2.5°) used to calculate the response matrix. Using a higher resolution grid decreased the model-data error at most sites, thereby increasing the information at that site. These different inversions—event-level and interpolated data, higher and lower resolutions—are compared using an ensemble of descriptive and comparative statistics. Analyzing the sensitivity of the inverse model leads to more accurate estimates of the methane source category uncertainty.

Relaxation time estimation in surface NMR

DOEpatents

Grunewald, Elliot D.; Walsh, David O.

2017-03-21

NMR relaxation time estimation methods and corresponding apparatus generate two or more alternating current transmit pulses with arbitrary amplitudes, time delays, and relative phases; apply a surface NMR acquisition scheme in which initial preparatory pulses, the properties of which may be fixed across a set of multiple acquisition sequence, are transmitted at the start of each acquisition sequence and are followed by one or more depth sensitive pulses, the pulse moments of which are varied across the set of multiple acquisition sequences; and apply processing techniques in which recorded NMR response data are used to estimate NMR properties and the relaxation times T.sub.1 and T.sub.2* as a function of position as well as one-dimensional and two-dimension distributions of T.sub.1 versus T.sub.2* as a function of subsurface position.

Psychophysical measurements in children: challenges, pitfalls, and considerations.

PubMed

Witton, Caroline; Talcott, Joel B; Henning, G Bruce

2017-01-01

Measuring sensory sensitivity is important in studying development and developmental disorders. However, with children, there is a need to balance reliable but lengthy sensory tasks with the child's ability to maintain motivation and vigilance. We used simulations to explore the problems associated with shortening adaptive psychophysical procedures, and suggest how these problems might be addressed. We quantify how adaptive procedures with too few reversals can over-estimate thresholds, introduce substantial measurement error, and make estimates of individual thresholds less reliable. The associated measurement error also obscures group differences. Adaptive procedures with children should therefore use as many reversals as possible, to reduce the effects of both Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Differences in response consistency, resulting from lapses in attention, further increase the over-estimation of threshold. Comparisons between data from individuals who may differ in lapse rate are therefore problematic, but measures to estimate and account for lapse rates in analyses may mitigate this problem.

Dynamic State Estimation and Parameter Calibration of DFIG based on Ensemble Kalman Filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Rui; Huang, Zhenyu; Wang, Shaobu

2015-07-30

With the growing interest in the application of wind energy, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) plays an essential role in the industry nowadays. To deal with the increasing stochastic variations introduced by intermittent wind resource and responsive loads, dynamic state estimation (DSE) are introduced in any power system associated with DFIGs. However, sometimes this dynamic analysis canould not work because the parameters of DFIGs are not accurate enough. To solve the problem, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is proposed for the state estimation and parameter calibration tasks. In this paper, a DFIG is modeled and implemented with the EnKFmore » method. Sensitivity analysis is demonstrated regarding the measurement noise, initial state errors and parameter errors. The results indicate this EnKF method has a robust performance on the state estimation and parameter calibration of DFIGs.« less

ACASI and face-to-face interviews yield inconsistent estimates of domestic violence among women in India: The Samata Health Study 2005-2009.

PubMed

Rathod, Sujit D; Minnis, Alexandra M; Subbiah, Kalyani; Krishnan, Suneeta

2011-08-01

Audio computer-assisted self-interviews (ACASI) are increasingly used in health research to improve the accuracy of data on sensitive behaviors. However, evidence is limited on its use among low-income populations in countries like India and for measurement of sensitive issues such as domestic violence. We compared reports of domestic violence and three less sensitive behaviors related to household decision making and spousal communication in ACASI and face-to-face interviews (FTFI) among 464 young married women enrolled in a longitudinal study of gender-based power and adverse health outcomes in low-income communities in Bangalore, India. We used a test-retest design. At the 12-month study visit, we elicited responses from each participant through FTFI first, followed by ACASI. At the 24-month visit, we reversed the order, implementing ACASI first, followed by FTFI. Univariable log-linear regression models and kappa statistics were used to examine ACASI's effects on self-reports. Regression results showed significantly lower reporting in ACASI relative to FTFI at both visits, including for domestic violence (12-month risk ratio [RR] = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.73; 24-month RR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62, 0.89). Response agreement between interview modes, calculated by kappa scores, was universally low, though highest for domestic violence (12-month κ = 0.45; 24-month κ = 0.48). Older age and greater educational attainment appeared associated with higher response agreement. Greater reporting in FTFI may be due to social desirability bias for the less sensitive questions and perceptions of therapeutic benefit for domestic violence. These results cast doubt on the appropriateness of using ACASI for measurement of sensitive behaviors in India.

Probabilistic hazard assessment for skin sensitization potency by dose–response modeling using feature elimination instead of quantitative structure–activity relationships

PubMed Central

McKim, James M.; Hartung, Thomas; Kleensang, Andre; Sá-Rocha, Vanessa

2016-01-01

Supervised learning methods promise to improve integrated testing strategies (ITS), but must be adjusted to handle high dimensionality and dose–response data. ITS approaches are currently fueled by the increasing mechanistic understanding of adverse outcome pathways (AOP) and the development of tests reflecting these mechanisms. Simple approaches to combine skin sensitization data sets, such as weight of evidence, fail due to problems in information redundancy and high dimension-ality. The problem is further amplified when potency information (dose/response) of hazards would be estimated. Skin sensitization currently serves as the foster child for AOP and ITS development, as legislative pressures combined with a very good mechanistic understanding of contact dermatitis have led to test development and relatively large high-quality data sets. We curated such a data set and combined a recursive variable selection algorithm to evaluate the information available through in silico, in chemico and in vitro assays. Chemical similarity alone could not cluster chemicals’ potency, and in vitro models consistently ranked high in recursive feature elimination. This allows reducing the number of tests included in an ITS. Next, we analyzed with a hidden Markov model that takes advantage of an intrinsic inter-relationship among the local lymph node assay classes, i.e. the monotonous connection between local lymph node assay and dose. The dose-informed random forest/hidden Markov model was superior to the dose-naive random forest model on all data sets. Although balanced accuracy improvement may seem small, this obscures the actual improvement in misclassifications as the dose-informed hidden Markov model strongly reduced "false-negatives" (i.e. extreme sensitizers as non-sensitizer) on all data sets. PMID:26046447

Probabilistic hazard assessment for skin sensitization potency by dose-response modeling using feature elimination instead of quantitative structure-activity relationships.

PubMed

Luechtefeld, Thomas; Maertens, Alexandra; McKim, James M; Hartung, Thomas; Kleensang, Andre; Sá-Rocha, Vanessa

2015-11-01

Supervised learning methods promise to improve integrated testing strategies (ITS), but must be adjusted to handle high dimensionality and dose-response data. ITS approaches are currently fueled by the increasing mechanistic understanding of adverse outcome pathways (AOP) and the development of tests reflecting these mechanisms. Simple approaches to combine skin sensitization data sets, such as weight of evidence, fail due to problems in information redundancy and high dimensionality. The problem is further amplified when potency information (dose/response) of hazards would be estimated. Skin sensitization currently serves as the foster child for AOP and ITS development, as legislative pressures combined with a very good mechanistic understanding of contact dermatitis have led to test development and relatively large high-quality data sets. We curated such a data set and combined a recursive variable selection algorithm to evaluate the information available through in silico, in chemico and in vitro assays. Chemical similarity alone could not cluster chemicals' potency, and in vitro models consistently ranked high in recursive feature elimination. This allows reducing the number of tests included in an ITS. Next, we analyzed with a hidden Markov model that takes advantage of an intrinsic inter-relationship among the local lymph node assay classes, i.e. the monotonous connection between local lymph node assay and dose. The dose-informed random forest/hidden Markov model was superior to the dose-naive random forest model on all data sets. Although balanced accuracy improvement may seem small, this obscures the actual improvement in misclassifications as the dose-informed hidden Markov model strongly reduced " false-negatives" (i.e. extreme sensitizers as non-sensitizer) on all data sets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to global warming, and feedbacks between vegetation and climate, are too strong in the models.

Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lent, Robert M.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2015-01-01

Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

Response to Name in Infants Developing Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Miller, Meghan; Iosif, Ana-Maria; Hill, Monique; Young, Gregory S.; Schwichtenberg, A. J.; Ozonoff, Sally

2017-01-01

Objective To examine longitudinal patterns of response to name from 6–24 months of age in infants at high and low risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Study design A response to name task was tested at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, and 24 months of age in 156 infant siblings of children with ASD (high-risk) or typical development (low-risk). At 36 months of age, participants were classified into 1 of 3 outcome groups: group with ASD (n = 20), high-risk group without ASD (n = 76), or low-risk group without ASD (n = 60). Differences in longitudinal performance were assessed using generalized estimating equations, and sensitivity and specificity for identifying ASD were calculated. Differences in age 36-month functioning were examined between infants who developed ASD and repeatedly vs infrequently failed to respond to name. Results At 9 months of age, infants developing ASD were more likely to fail to orient to their names, persisting through 24 months. Sensitivity/specificity for identifying ASD based on at least 1 failure between 12 and 24 months were estimated at .70 in this sample. One-half of the infants who developed ASD had repeated failures in this timeframe, and demonstrated lower age 36-month receptive language, and earlier diagnosis of ASD than infants with ASD who had infrequent failures. Conclusions In addition to recommended routine broad-based and ASD-specific screening, response to name should be regularly monitored in infants at risk for ASD. Infants who consistently fail to respond to their names in the second year of life may be at risk not only for ASD but also for greater impairment by age 3 years. PMID:28162768

International experiences in assessing vitamin A status and applying the vitamin A-labeled isotope dilution method.

PubMed

Lopez-Teros, Veronica; Chileshe, Justin; Idohou-Dossou, Nicole; Fajarwati, Tetra; Medoua Nama, Gabriel; Newton, Sam; Vinod Kumar, Malavika; Wang, Zhixu; Wasantwisut, Emorn; Hunt, Janet R

2014-01-01

Inadequate vitamin A (VA) nutrition continues to be a major problem worldwide, and many interventions being implemented to improve VA status in various populations need to be evaluated. The interpretation of results after an intervention depends greatly on the method selected to assess VA status. To evaluate the effect of an intervention on VA status, researchers in Cameroon, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Senegal and Zambia have used serum retinol as an indicator, and have not always found improvement in response to supplementation. One problem is that homeostatic control of serum retinol may mask positive effects of treatment in that changes in concentration are observed only when status is either moderately to severely depleted or excessive. Because VA is stored mainly in the liver, measurements of hepatic VA stores are the “gold standard” for assessing VA status. Dose response tests such as the relative dose response (RDR) and the modified relative dose response (MRDR), allow a qualitative assessment of VA liver stores. On the other hand, the use of the vitamin A-labeled isotope dilution (VALID) technique, (using 13C or 2H-labeled retinyl acetate) serves as an indirect method to quantitatively estimate total body and liver VA stores. Countries including Cameroon, China, Ghana, Mexico, Thailand and Zambia are now applying the VALID method to sensitively assess changes in VA status during interventions, or to estimate a population’s dietary requirement for VA. Transition to the use of more sensitive biochemical indicators of VA status such as the VALID technique is needed to effectively assess interventions in populations where mild to moderate VA deficiency is more prevalent than severe deficiency.

Obesity, diabetes, and associated costs of exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals in the European Union.

PubMed

Legler, Juliette; Fletcher, Tony; Govarts, Eva; Porta, Miquel; Blumberg, Bruce; Heindel, Jerrold J; Trasande, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Obesity and diabetes are epidemic in the European Union (EU). Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is increasingly recognized as a contributor, independent of diet and physical activity. The objective was to estimate obesity, diabetes, and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the EU. An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from that applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized published cost estimates for childhood obesity, adult obesity, and adult diabetes. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was performed from the societal perspective. The panel identified a 40% to 69% probability of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 1555 cases of overweight at age 10 (sensitivity analysis: 1555-5463) in 2010 with associated costs of €24.6 million (sensitivity analysis: €24.6-86.4 million). A 20% to 39% probability was identified for dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 28 200 cases of adult diabetes (sensitivity analysis: 28 200-56 400) with associated costs of €835 million (sensitivity analysis: €835 million-16.6 billion). The panel also identified a 40% to 69% probability of phthalate exposure causing 53 900 cases of obesity in older women and €15.6 billion in associated costs. Phthalate exposure was also found to have a 40% to 69% probability of causing 20 500 new-onset cases of diabetes in older women with €607 million in associated costs. Prenatal bisphenol A exposure was identified to have a 20% to 69% probability of causing 42 400 cases of childhood obesity, with associated lifetime costs of €1.54 billion. EDC exposures in the EU contribute substantially to obesity and diabetes, with a moderate probability of >€18 billion costs per year. This is a conservative estimate; the results emphasize the need to control EDC exposures.

Obesity, Diabetes, and Associated Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

PubMed Central

Legler, Juliette; Fletcher, Tony; Govarts, Eva; Porta, Miquel; Blumberg, Bruce; Heindel, Jerrold J.

2015-01-01

Context: Obesity and diabetes are epidemic in the European Union (EU). Exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is increasingly recognized as a contributor, independent of diet and physical activity. Objective: The objective was to estimate obesity, diabetes, and associated costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the EU. Design: An expert panel evaluated evidence for probability of causation using weight-of-evidence characterization adapted from that applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Exposure-response relationships and reference levels were evaluated for relevant EDCs, and biomarker data were organized from peer-reviewed studies to represent European exposure and burden of disease. Cost estimation as of 2010 utilized published cost estimates for childhood obesity, adult obesity, and adult diabetes. Setting, Patients and Participants, and Intervention: Cost estimation was performed from the societal perspective. Results: The panel identified a 40% to 69% probability of dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 1555 cases of overweight at age 10 (sensitivity analysis: 1555–5463) in 2010 with associated costs of €24.6 million (sensitivity analysis: €24.6–86.4 million). A 20% to 39% probability was identified for dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene causing 28 200 cases of adult diabetes (sensitivity analysis: 28 200–56 400) with associated costs of €835 million (sensitivity analysis: €835 million–16.6 billion). The panel also identified a 40% to 69% probability of phthalate exposure causing 53 900 cases of obesity in older women and €15.6 billion in associated costs. Phthalate exposure was also found to have a 40% to 69% probability of causing 20 500 new-onset cases of diabetes in older women with €607 million in associated costs. Prenatal bisphenol A exposure was identified to have a 20% to 69% probability of causing 42 400 cases of childhood obesity, with associated lifetime costs of €1.54 billion. Conclusions: EDC exposures in the EU contribute substantially to obesity and diabetes, with a moderate probability of >€18 billion costs per year. This is a conservative estimate; the results emphasize the need to control EDC exposures. PMID:25742518

Are changing emission patterns across the Northern Hemisphere influencing long-range transport contributions to background air pollution?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, R.; Kang, D.; Napelenok, S. L.; Xing, J.; Hogrefe, C.

2017-12-01

Air pollution reduction strategies for a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Contrasting changes in emission patterns across the globe (e.g. declining emissions in North America and Western Europe in response to implementation of control measures and increasing emissions across Asia due to economic and population growth) are resulting in heterogeneous changes in the tropospheric chemical composition and are likely altering long-range transport impacts and consequently background pollution levels at receptor regions. To quantify these impacts, the WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and multi-decadal model simulations are performed for the period spanning 1990-2010 to examine changes in hemispheric air pollution resulting from changes in emissions over this period. Simulated trends in ozone and precursor species concentrations across the U.S. and the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades are compared with those inferred from available measurements during this period. Additionally, the decoupled direct method (DDM) in CMAQ, a first- and higher-order sensitivity calculation technique, is used to estimate the sensitivity of O3 to emissions from different source regions across the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal variations in source region contributions to background O3 are then estimated from these sensitivity calculations and will be discussed. These source region sensitivities estimated from DDM are then combined with the multi-decadal simulations of O3 distributions and emissions trends to characterize the changing contributions of different source regions to background O3 levels across North America. This characterization of changing long-range transport contributions is critical for the design and implementation of tighter national air quality standards

Crevicular Fluid and Serum Concentrations of Progranulin and High Sensitivity CRP in Chronic Periodontitis and Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Priyanka, N.; Kumari, Minal; Kalra, Nitish; Arjun, P.; Naik, Savitha B.; Pradeep, A. R.

2013-01-01

Introduction. This study was designed to correlate the serum and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) levels of progranulin (PGRN) and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs CRP) in chronic periodontitis and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Design. PGRN and hs CRP levels were estimated in 3 groups: healthy, chronic periodontitis, and type 2 DM with chronic periodontitis. Results. The mean PGRN and hs CRP concentrations in serum and GCF were the highest for group 3 followed by group 2 and the least in group 1. Conclusion. PGRN and hs CRP may be biomarkers of the inflammatory response in type 2 DM and chronic periodontitis. PMID:24191130

Estimating the Triple-Point Isotope Effect and the Corresponding Uncertainties for Cryogenic Fixed Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tew, W. L.

2008-02-01

The sensitivities of melting temperatures to isotopic variations in monatomic and diatomic atmospheric gases using both theoretical and semi-empirical methods are estimated. The current state of knowledge of the vapor-pressure isotope effects (VPIE) and triple-point isotope effects (TPIE) is briefly summarized for the noble gases (except He), and for selected diatomic molecules including oxygen. An approximate expression is derived to estimate the relative shift in the melting temperature with isotopic substitution. In general, the magnitude of the effects diminishes with increasing molecular mass and increasing temperature. Knowledge of the VPIE, molar volumes, and heat of fusion are sufficient to estimate the temperature shift or isotopic sensitivity coefficient via the derived expression. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated in the estimation of isotopic sensitivities and uncertainties for triple points of xenon and molecular oxygen for which few documented estimates were previously available. The calculated sensitivities from this study are considerably higher than previous estimates for Xe, and lower than other estimates in the case of oxygen. In both these cases, the predicted sensitivities are small and the resulting variations in triple point temperatures due to mass fractionation effects are less than 20 μK.

A New Method for Assessing How Sensitivity and Specificity of Linkage Studies Affects Estimation

PubMed Central

Moore, Cecilia L.; Amin, Janaki; Gidding, Heather F.; Law, Matthew G.

2014-01-01

Background While the importance of record linkage is widely recognised, few studies have attempted to quantify how linkage errors may have impacted on their own findings and outcomes. Even where authors of linkage studies have attempted to estimate sensitivity and specificity based on subjects with known status, the effects of false negatives and positives on event rates and estimates of effect are not often described. Methods We present quantification of the effect of sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process on event rates and incidence, as well as the resultant effect on relative risks. Formulae to estimate the true number of events and estimated relative risk adjusted for given linkage sensitivity and specificity are then derived and applied to data from a prisoner mortality study. The implications of false positive and false negative matches are also discussed. Discussion Comparisons of the effect of sensitivity and specificity on incidence and relative risks indicate that it is more important for linkages to be highly specific than sensitive, particularly if true incidence rates are low. We would recommend that, where possible, some quantitative estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process be performed, allowing the effect of these quantities on observed results to be assessed. PMID:25068293

The Vocabulary of Brain Potentials: Inferring Cognitive Events from Brain Potentials in Operational Settings

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-08-01

can easily change any of the parameters controlling the r, experimenter. B.2.3.3 The PLATO Laborato >• A block diagram of the laboratory is...the parameters of an adaptive filter, or to perform the computations required by the more complex displays. In addition to its role as the prime...by the inherent response variability which precludes reliable estimates of attention-sensitive parameters from a single observation. Thus

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems. Ph.D. Thesis - George Washington Univ., Apr. 1985

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, P. C.

1986-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates.

Evaluating Exposure-Response Associations for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma with Varying Methods of Assigning Cumulative Benzene Exposure in the Shanghai Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Friesen, Melissa C; Bassig, Bryan A; Vermeulen, Roel; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Purdue, Mark P; Stewart, Patricia A; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Chow, Wong-Ho; Ji, Bu-Tian; Yang, Gong; Linet, Martha S; Hu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2017-01-01

To provide insight into the contributions of exposure measurements to job exposure matrices (JEMs), we examined the robustness of an association between occupational benzene exposure and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to varying exposure assessment methods. NHL risk was examined in a prospective population-based cohort of 73087 women in Shanghai. A mixed-effects model that combined a benzene JEM with >60000 short-term, area benzene inspection measurements was used to derive two sets of measurement-based benzene estimates: 'job/industry-specific' estimates (our presumed best approach) were derived from the model's fixed effects (year, JEM intensity rating) and random effects (occupation, industry); 'calibrated JEM' estimates were derived using only the fixed effects. 'Uncalibrated JEM' (using the ordinal JEM ratings) and exposure duration estimates were also calculated. Cumulative exposure for each subject was calculated for each approach based on varying exposure definitions defined using the JEM's probability ratings. We examined the agreement between the cumulative metrics and evaluated changes in the benzene-NHL associations. For our primary exposure definition, the job/industry-specific estimates were moderately to highly correlated with all other approaches (Pearson correlation 0.61-0.89; Spearman correlation > 0.99). All these metrics resulted in statistically significant exposure-response associations for NHL, with negligible gain in model fit from using measurement-based estimates. Using more sensitive or specific exposure definitions resulted in elevated but non-significant associations. The robust associations observed here with varying benzene assessment methods provide support for a benzene-NHL association. While incorporating exposure measurements did not improve model fit, the measurements allowed us to derive quantitative exposure-response curves. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2017.

Average Dielectric Property Analysis of Complex Breast Tissue with Microwave Transmission Measurements

PubMed Central

Garrett, John D.; Fear, Elise C.

2015-01-01

Prior information about the average dielectric properties of breast tissue can be implemented in microwave breast imaging techniques to improve the results. Rapidly providing this information relies on acquiring a limited number of measurements and processing these measurement with efficient algorithms. Previously, systems were developed to measure the transmission of microwave signals through breast tissue, and simplifications were applied to estimate the average properties. These methods provided reasonable estimates, but they were sensitive to multipath. In this paper, a new technique to analyze the average properties of breast tissues while addressing multipath is presented. Three steps are used to process transmission measurements. First, the effects of multipath were removed. In cases where multipath is present, multiple peaks were observed in the time domain. A Tukey window was used to time-gate a single peak and, therefore, select a single path through the breast. Second, the antenna response was deconvolved from the transmission coefficient to isolate the response from the tissue in the breast interior. The antenna response was determined through simulations. Finally, the complex permittivity was estimated using an iterative approach. This technique was validated using simulated and physical homogeneous breast models and tested with results taken from a recent patient study. PMID:25585106

Estimation of regional differences in wind erosion sensitivity in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezősi, G.; Blanka, V.; Bata, T.; Kovács, F.; Meyer, B.

2015-01-01

In Hungary, wind erosion is one of the most serious natural hazards. Spatial and temporal variation in the factors that determine the location and intensity of wind erosion damage are not well known, nor are the regional and local sensitivities to erosion. Because of methodological challenges, no multi-factor, regional wind erosion sensitivity map is available for Hungary. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the regional differences in wind erosion sensitivity and exposure in Hungary. Wind erosion sensitivity was modelled using the key factors of soil sensitivity, vegetation cover and wind erodibility as proxies. These factors were first estimated separately by factor sensitivity maps and later combined by fuzzy logic into a regional-scale wind erosion sensitivity map. Large areas were evaluated by using publicly available data sets of remotely sensed vegetation information, soil maps and meteorological data on wind speed. The resulting estimates were verified by field studies and examining the economic losses from wind erosion as compensated by the state insurance company. The spatial resolution of the resulting sensitivity map is suitable for regional applications, as identifying sensitive areas is the foundation for diverse land development control measures and implementing management activities.

Dynamic physiological modeling for functional diffuse optical tomography

PubMed Central

Diamond, Solomon Gilbert; Huppert, Theodore J.; Kolehmainen, Ville; Franceschini, Maria Angela; Kaipio, Jari P.; Arridge, Simon R.; Boas, David A.

2009-01-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a noninvasive imaging technology that is sensitive to local concentration changes in oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin. When applied to functional neuroimaging, DOT measures hemodynamics in the scalp and brain that reflect competing metabolic demands and cardiovascular dynamics. The diffuse nature of near-infrared photon migration in tissue and the multitude of physiological systems that affect hemodynamics motivate the use of anatomical and physiological models to improve estimates of the functional hemodynamic response. In this paper, we present a linear state-space model for DOT analysis that models the physiological fluctuations present in the data with either static or dynamic estimation. We demonstrate the approach by using auxiliary measurements of blood pressure variability and heart rate variability as inputs to model the background physiology in DOT data. We evaluate the improvements accorded by modeling this physiology on ten human subjects with simulated functional hemodynamic responses added to the baseline physiology. Adding physiological modeling with a static estimator significantly improved estimates of the simulated functional response, and further significant improvements were achieved with a dynamic Kalman filter estimator (paired t tests, n = 10, P < 0.05). These results suggest that physiological modeling can improve DOT analysis. The further improvement with the Kalman filter encourages continued research into dynamic linear modeling of the physiology present in DOT. Cardiovascular dynamics also affect the blood-oxygen-dependent (BOLD) signal in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This state-space approach to DOT analysis could be extended to BOLD fMRI analysis, multimodal studies and real-time analysis. PMID:16242967

Tire Force Estimation using a Proportional Integral Observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhat, Ahmad; Koenig, Damien; Hernandez-Alcantara, Diana; Morales-Menendez, Ruben

2017-01-01

This paper addresses a method for detecting critical stability situations in the lateral vehicle dynamics by estimating the non-linear part of the tire forces. These forces indicate the road holding performance of the vehicle. The estimation method is based on a robust fault detection and estimation approach which minimize the disturbance and uncertainties to residual sensitivity. It consists in the design of a Proportional Integral Observer (PIO), while minimizing the well known H ∞ norm for the worst case uncertainties and disturbance attenuation, and combining a transient response specification. This multi-objective problem is formulated as a Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) feasibility problem where a cost function subject to LMI constraints is minimized. This approach is employed to generate a set of switched robust observers for uncertain switched systems, where the convergence of the observer is ensured using a Multiple Lyapunov Function (MLF). Whilst the forces to be estimated can not be physically measured, a simulation scenario with CarSimTM is presented to illustrate the developed method.

An Algorithm for Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Confidence Interval Determination in Nonlinear Estimation Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick Charles

1985-01-01

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The algorithm was developed for airplane parameter estimation problems but is well suited for most nonlinear, multivariable, dynamic systems. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort. MNRES determines the sensitivities with less computational effort than using either a finite-difference method or integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, thus eliminating algorithm reformulation with each new model and providing flexibility to use model equations in any format that is convenient. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. It is observed that the degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. The CR bounds were found to be close to the bounds determined by the search when the degree of nonlinearity was small. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels for the parameter confidence limits. The primary utility of the measure, however, was found to be in predicting the degree of agreement between Cramer-Rao bounds and search estimates.

An Investigation on the role of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization scheme on the performance of a hydrostatic atmospheric model over a Coastal Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anurose, J. T.; Subrahamanyam, Bala D.

2012-07-01

As part of the ocean/land-atmosphere interaction, more than half of the total kinetic energy is lost within the lowest part of atmosphere, often referred to as the planetary boundary layer (PBL). A comprehensive understanding of the energetics of this layer and turbulent processes responsible for dissipation of kinetic energy within the PBL require accurate estimation of sensible and latent heat flux and momentum flux. In numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, these quantities are estimated through different surface-layer and PBL parameterization schemes. This research article investigates different factors influencing the accuracy of a surface-layer parameterization scheme used in a hydrostatic high-resolution regional model (HRM) in the estimation of surface-layer turbulent fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum over the coastal regions of the Indian sub-continent. Results obtained from this sensitivity study of a parameterization scheme in HRM revealed the role of surface roughness length (z_{0}) in conjunction with the temperature difference between the underlying ground surface and atmosphere above (ΔT = T_{G} - T_{A}) in the estimated values of fluxes. For grid points over the land surface where z_{0} is treated as a constant throughout the model integration time, ΔT showed relative dominance in the estimation of sensible heat flux. In contrast to this, estimation of sensible and latent heat flux over ocean were found to be equally sensitive on the method adopted for assigning the values of z_{0} and also on the magnitudes of ΔT.

An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

1988-01-01

Parameter sensitivity is defined as the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and the design variables due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. There are currently several methods for estimating parameter sensitivities requiring either difficult to obtain second order information, or do not return reliable estimates for the derivatives. Additionally, all the methods assume that the set of active constraints does not change in a neighborhood of the estimation point. If the active set does in fact change, than any extrapolations based on these derivatives may be in error. The objective here is to investigate more efficient new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities when the active set changes. The new method is based on the recursive quadratic programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RPQ algorithm. Inital testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity. To handle changes in the active set, a deflection algorithm is proposed for those cases where the new set of active constraints remains linearly independent. For those cases where dependencies occur, a directional derivative is proposed. A few simple examples are included for the algorithm, but extensive testing has not yet been performed.

Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2016-01-01

A parameter regionalization scheme to transfer parameter values from gaged to ungaged areas for a monthly water balance model (MWBM) was developed and tested for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, a global-sensitivity algorithm, was implemented on a MWBM to generate parameter sensitivities on a set of 109 951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. The HRUs were grouped into 110 calibration regions based on similar parameter sensitivities. Subsequently, measured runoff from 1575 streamgages within the calibration regions were used to calibrate the MWBM parameters to produce parameter sets for each calibration region. Measured and simulated runoff at the 1575 streamgages showed good correspondence for the majority of the CONUS, with a median computed Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.76 over all streamgages. These methods maximize the use of available runoff information, resulting in a calibrated CONUS-wide application of the MWBM suitable for providing estimates of water availability at the HRU resolution for both gaged and ungaged areas of the CONUS.

On the independence of visual awareness and metacognition: a signal detection theoretic analysis.

PubMed

Jachs, Barbara; Blanco, Manuel J; Grantham-Hill, Sarah; Soto, David

2015-04-01

Classically, visual awareness and metacognition are thought to be intimately linked, with our knowledge of the correctness of perceptual choices (henceforth metacognition) being dependent on the level of stimulus awareness. Here we used a signal detection theoretic approach involving a Gabor orientation discrimination task in conjunction with trial-by-trial ratings of perceptual awareness and response confidence in order to gauge estimates of type-1 (perceptual) orientation sensitivity and type-2 (metacognitive) sensitivity at different levels of stimulus awareness. Data from three experiments indicate that while the level of stimulus awareness had a profound impact on type-1 perceptual sensitivity, the awareness effect on type-2 metacognitive sensitivity was far lower by comparison. The present data pose a challenge for signal detection theoretic models in which both type-1 (perceptual) and type-2 (metacognitive) processes are assumed to operate on the same input. More broadly, the findings challenge the commonly held view that metacognition is tightly coupled to conscious states. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

High sensitivity pressure transducer based on the phase characteristics of GMI magnetic sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavides, L. S.; Costa Silva, E.; Costa Monteiro, E.; Hall Barbosa, C. R.

2018-03-01

This paper presents a new configuration for a GMI pressure transducer based on the reading of the phase characteristics of GMI sensor, intended for biomedical applications. The development process of this new class of magnetic field transducers is discussed, beginning with the definition of the ideal conditioning of the GMI sensor elements (dc level and frequency of the excitation current and sample length) and continuing with computational simulations of the full electronic circuit performed using the experimental data obtained from measured GMI curves, and have shown that the improvement in the sensitivity of GMI magnetometers is larger when phase-based transducers are used instead of magnitude-based transducers. Parameters of interest of the developed prototype are thoroughly analyzed, such as: sensitivity, linearity and frequency response. Also, the spectral noise density of the developed pressure transducer is evaluated and its resolution in the passband is estimated. A low-cost GMI pressure transducer was developed, presenting high resolution, high sensitivity and a frequency bandwidth compatible to the desired biomedical applications.

Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2016-07-01

A parameter regionalization scheme to transfer parameter values from gaged to ungaged areas for a monthly water balance model (MWBM) was developed and tested for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, a global-sensitivity algorithm, was implemented on a MWBM to generate parameter sensitivities on a set of 109 951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. The HRUs were grouped into 110 calibration regions based on similar parameter sensitivities. Subsequently, measured runoff from 1575 streamgages within the calibration regions were used to calibrate the MWBM parameters to produce parameter sets for each calibration region. Measured and simulated runoff at the 1575 streamgages showed good correspondence for the majority of the CONUS, with a median computed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.76 over all streamgages. These methods maximize the use of available runoff information, resulting in a calibrated CONUS-wide application of the MWBM suitable for providing estimates of water availability at the HRU resolution for both gaged and ungaged areas of the CONUS.

Evaluation of the Emergency Response Dose Assessment System(ERDAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Randolph J.; Lambert, Winifred C.; Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Yersavich, Ann M.

1996-01-01

The emergency response dose assessment system (ERDAS) is a protype software and hardware system configured to produce routine mesoscale meteorological forecasts and enhanced dispersion estimates on an operational basis for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) region. ERDAS provides emergency response guidance to operations at KSC/CCAS in the case of an accidental hazardous material release or an aborted vehicle launch. This report describes the evaluation of ERDAS including: evaluation of sea breeze predictions, comparison of launch plume location and concentration predictions, case study of a toxic release, evaluation of model sensitivity to varying input parameters, evaluation of the user interface, assessment of ERDA's operational capabilities, and a comparison of ERDAS models to the ocean breeze dry gultch diffusion model.

Controlling Chaos Via Knowledge of Initial Condition for a Curved Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maestrello, L.

2000-01-01

Nonlinear response of a flexible curved panel exhibiting bifurcation to fully developed chaos is demonstrated along with the sensitivity to small perturbation from the initial conditions. The response is determined from the measured time series at two fixed points. The panel is forced by an external nonharmonic multifrequency and monofrequency sound field. Using a low power time-continuous feedback control, carefully tuned at each initial condition, produces large long-term effects on the dynamics toward taming chaos. Without the knowledge of the initial conditions, control may be achieved by destructive interference. In this case, the control power is proportional to the loading power. Calculation of the correlation dimension and the estimation of positive Lyapunov exponents, in practice, are the proof of chaotic response.

Balancing practicality and hydrologic realism: a parsimonious approach for simulating rapid groundwater recharge via unsaturated-zone preferential flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Nimmo, J.R.

2013-01-01

The impact of preferential flow on recharge and contaminant transport poses a considerable challenge to water-resources management. Typical hydrologic models require extensive site characterization, but can underestimate fluxes when preferential flow is significant. A recently developed source-responsive model incorporates film-flow theory with conservation of mass to estimate unsaturated-zone preferential fluxes with readily available data. The term source-responsive describes the sensitivity of preferential flow in response to water availability at the source of input. We present the first rigorous tests of a parsimonious formulation for simulating water table fluctuations using two case studies, both in arid regions with thick unsaturated zones of fractured volcanic rock. Diffuse flow theory cannot adequately capture the observed water table responses at both sites; the source-responsive model is a viable alternative. We treat the active area fraction of preferential flow paths as a scaled function of water inputs at the land surface then calibrate the macropore density to fit observed water table rises. Unlike previous applications, we allow the characteristic film-flow velocity to vary, reflecting the lag time between source and deep water table responses. Analysis of model performance and parameter sensitivity for the two case studies underscores the importance of identifying thresholds for initiation of film flow in unsaturated rocks, and suggests that this parsimonious approach is potentially of great practical value.

Copper detection in the Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea: optimum valve closure response.

PubMed

Tran, Damien; Fournier, Elodie; Durrieu, Gilles; Massabuau, Jean-Charles

2004-02-25

When exposed to a contaminant, bivalves close their shell as a protective strategy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the maximum expected dissolved copper sensitivity in the freshwater bivalve Corbicula fluminea using a new approach to determine their potential and limit to detect contaminants. To take into account the rate of spontaneous closures, we integrated stress problems associated with fixation by a valve in usual valvometers and the spontaneous rhythm associated with nycthemeral activity, to optimize the response in conditions where the probability of spontaneous closing was lowest. Moreover, we used an original system with impedance valvometry, using lightweight impedance electrodes, to study free-ranging animals in low stress conditions combined with an analytical approach describing dose-response curves by logistic regression, with valve closure reaction as a function of response time and concentration of contaminant. In C. fluminea, we estimated that copper concentrations > 4 microg/l (95% confidence interval (CI95%), 2.3-8.8 microg/l) must be detected within 5 h after Cu addition. Lower values could not be distinguished from background noise. The threshold values were 2.5 times lower than the values reported in the literature.

Copper detection in the Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea: optimum valve closure response.

PubMed

Tran, Damien; Fournier, Elodie; Durrieu, Gilles; Massabuau, Jean Charles

2003-11-19

When exposed to a contaminant, bivalves close their shell as a protective strategy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the maximum expected dissolved copper sensitivity in the freshwater bivalve Corbicula fluminea using a new approach to determine their potential and limit to detect contaminants. To take into account the rate of spontaneous closures, we integrated stress problems associated with fixation by a valve in usual valvometers and the spontaneous rhythm associated with nycthemeral activity, to optimize the response in conditions where the probability of spontaneous closing was lowest. Moreover, we used an original system with impedance valvometry, using lightweight impedance electrodes, to study free-ranging animals in low stress conditions combined with an analytical approach describing dose-response curves by logistic regression, with valve closure reaction as a function of response time and concentration of contaminant. In C. fluminea, we estimated that copper concentrations >4 microg/l (95% confidence interval (CI(95%)), 2.3-8.8 microg/l) must be detected within 5 h after Cu addition. Lower values could not be distinguished from background noise. The threshold values were 2.5 times higher than the values reported in the literature.

System parameter identification from projection of inverse analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, K.; Law, S. S.; Zhu, X. Q.

2017-05-01

The output of a system due to a change of its parameters is often approximated with the sensitivity matrix from the first order Taylor series. The system output can be measured in practice, but the perturbation in the system parameters is usually not available. Inverse sensitivity analysis can be adopted to estimate the unknown system parameter perturbation from the difference between the observation output data and corresponding analytical output data calculated from the original system model. The inverse sensitivity analysis is re-visited in this paper with improvements based on the Principal Component Analysis on the analytical data calculated from the known system model. The identification equation is projected into a subspace of principal components of the system output, and the sensitivity of the inverse analysis is improved with an iterative model updating procedure. The proposed method is numerical validated with a planar truss structure and dynamic experiments with a seven-storey planar steel frame. Results show that it is robust to measurement noise, and the location and extent of stiffness perturbation can be identified with better accuracy compared with the conventional response sensitivity-based method.

Crossmodal semantic priming by naturalistic sounds and spoken words enhances visual sensitivity.

PubMed

Chen, Yi-Chuan; Spence, Charles

2011-10-01

We propose a multisensory framework based on Glaser and Glaser's (1989) general reading-naming interference model to account for the semantic priming effect by naturalistic sounds and spoken words on visual picture sensitivity. Four experiments were designed to investigate two key issues: First, can auditory stimuli enhance visual sensitivity when the sound leads the picture as well as when they are presented simultaneously? And, second, do naturalistic sounds (e.g., a dog's "woofing") and spoken words (e.g., /dɔg/) elicit similar semantic priming effects? Here, we estimated participants' sensitivity and response criterion using signal detection theory in a picture detection task. The results demonstrate that naturalistic sounds enhanced visual sensitivity when the onset of the sounds led that of the picture by 346 ms (but not when the sounds led the pictures by 173 ms, nor when they were presented simultaneously, Experiments 1-3A). At the same SOA, however, spoken words did not induce semantic priming effects on visual detection sensitivity (Experiments 3B and 4A). When using a dual picture detection/identification task, both kinds of auditory stimulus induced a similar semantic priming effect (Experiment 4B). Therefore, we suggest that there needs to be sufficient processing time for the auditory stimulus to access its associated meaning to modulate visual perception. Besides, the interactions between pictures and the two types of sounds depend not only on their processing route to access semantic representations, but also on the response to be made to fulfill the requirements of the task.

Cost analysis of post-polio certification immunization policies.

PubMed Central

Sangrujee, Nalinee; Cáceres, Victor M.; Cochi, Stephen L.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: An analysis was conducted to estimate the costs of different potential post-polio certification immunization policies currently under consideration, with the objective of providing this information to policy-makers. METHODS: We analyzed three global policy options: continued use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV); OPV cessation with optional inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV); and OPV cessation with universal IPV. Assumptions were made on future immunization policy decisions taken by low-, middle-, and high-income countries. We estimated the financial costs of each immunization policy, the number of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) cases, and the global costs of maintaining an outbreak response capacity. The financial costs of each immunization policy were based on estimates of the cost of polio vaccine, its administration, and coverage projections. The costs of maintaining outbreak response capacity include those associated with developing and maintaining a vaccine stockpile in addition to laboratory and epidemiological surveillance. We used the period 2005-20 as the time frame for the analysis. FINDINGS: OPV cessation with optional IPV, at an estimated cost of US$ 20,412 million, was the least costly option. The global cost of outbreak response capacity was estimated to be US$ 1320 million during 2005-20. The policy option continued use of OPV resulted in the highest number of VAPP cases. OPV cessation with universal IPV had the highest financial costs, but it also had the least number of VAPP cases. Sensitivity analyses showed that global costs were sensitive to assumptions on the cost of the vaccine. Analysis also showed that if the price per dose of IPV was reduced to US$ 0.50 for low-income countries, the cost of OPV cessation with universal IPV would be the same as the costs of continued use of OPV. CONCLUSION: Projections on the vaccine price per dose and future coverage rates were major drivers of the global costs of post-certification polio immunization. The break-even price of switching to IPV compared with continuing with OPV immunizations is US$ 0.50 per dose of IPV. However, this doses not account for the cost of vaccine-derived poliovirus cases resulting from the continued use of OPV. In addition to financial costs, risk assessments related to the re-emergence of polio will be major determinants of policy decisions. PMID:15106295

Maximum likelihood estimation of correction for dilution bias in simple linear regression using replicates from subjects with extreme first measurements.

PubMed

Berglund, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Lindbäck, Johan; Svärdsudd, Kurt; Zethelius, Björn

2008-09-30

The least-squares estimator of the slope in a simple linear regression model is biased towards zero when the predictor is measured with random error. A corrected slope may be estimated by adding data from a reliability study, which comprises a subset of subjects from the main study. The precision of this corrected slope depends on the design of the reliability study and estimator choice. Previous work has assumed that the reliability study constitutes a random sample from the main study. A more efficient design is to use subjects with extreme values on their first measurement. Previously, we published a variance formula for the corrected slope, when the correction factor is the slope in the regression of the second measurement on the first. In this paper we show that both designs improve by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The precision gain is explained by the inclusion of data from all subjects for estimation of the predictor's variance and by the use of the second measurement for estimation of the covariance between response and predictor. The gain of MLE enhances with stronger true relationship between response and predictor and with lower precision in the predictor measurements. We present a real data example on the relationship between fasting insulin, a surrogate marker, and true insulin sensitivity measured by a gold-standard euglycaemic insulin clamp, and simulations, where the behavior of profile-likelihood-based confidence intervals is examined. MLE was shown to be a robust estimator for non-normal distributions and efficient for small sample situations. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying the life-history response to increased male exposure in female Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Edward, Dominic A; Fricke, Claudia; Gerrard, Dave T; Chapman, Tracey

2011-02-01

Precise estimates of costs and benefits, the fitness economics, of mating are of key importance in understanding how selection shapes the coevolution of male and female mating traits. However, fitness is difficult to define and quantify. Here, we used a novel application of an established analytical technique to calculate individual- and population-based estimates of fitness-including those sensitive to the timing of reproduction-to measure the effects on females of increased exposure to males. Drosophila melanogaster females were exposed to high and low frequencies of contact with males, and life-history traits for each individual female were recorded. We then compared different fitness estimates to determine which of them best described the changes in life histories. We predicted that rate-sensitive estimates would be more accurate, as mating influences the rate of offspring production in this species. The results supported this prediction. Increased exposure to males led to significantly decreased fitness within declining but not stable or increasing populations. There was a net benefit of increased male exposure in expanding populations, despite a significant decrease in lifespan. The study shows how a more accurate description of fitness, and new insights can be achieved by considering individual life-history strategies within the context of population growth. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Reduced order modeling, statistical analysis and system identification for a bladed rotor with geometric mistuning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishwakarma, Vinod

Modified Modal Domain Analysis (MMDA) is a novel method for the development of a reduced-order model (ROM) of a bladed rotor. This method utilizes proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of Coordinate Measurement Machine (CMM) data of blades' geometries and sector analyses using ANSYS. For the first time ROM of a geometrically mistuned industrial scale rotor (Transonic rotor) with large size of Finite Element (FE) model is generated using MMDA. Two methods for estimating mass and stiffness mistuning matrices are used a) exact computation from sector FE analysis, b) estimates based on POD mistuning parameters. Modal characteristics such as mistuned natural frequencies, mode shapes and forced harmonic response are obtained from ROM for various cases, and results are compared with full rotor ANSYS analysis and other ROM methods such as Subset of Nominal Modes (SNM) and Fundamental Model of Mistuning (FMM). Accuracy of MMDA ROM is demonstrated with variations in number of POD features and geometric mistuning parameters. It is shown for the aforementioned case b) that the high accuracy of ROM studied in previous work with Academic rotor does not directly translate to the Transonic rotor. Reasons for such mismatch in results are investigated and attributed to higher mistuning in Transonic rotor. Alternate solutions such as estimation of sensitivities via least squares, and interpolation of mass and stiffness matrices on manifolds are developed, and their results are discussed. Statistics such as mean and standard deviations of forced harmonic response peak amplitude are obtained from random permutations, and are shown to have similar results as those of Monte Carlo simulations. These statistics are obtained and compared for 3 degree of freedom (DOF) lumped parameter model (LPM) of rotor, Academic rotor and Transonic rotor. A state -- estimator based on MMDA ROM and Kalman filter is also developed for offline or online estimation of harmonic forcing function from measurements of forced response. Forcing function is estimated for synchronous excitation of 3DOF rotor model, Academic rotor and Transonic rotor from measurement of response at few nodes. For asynchronous excitation forcing function is estimated only for 3DOF rotor model and Academic rotor from measurement of response. The impact of number of measurement locations and accuracy of ROM on the estimation of forcing function is discussed. iv.

Highly Sensitive Switchable Heterojunction Photodiode Based on Epitaxial Bi2FeCrO6 Multiferroic Thin Films.

PubMed

Huang, Wei; Chakrabartty, Joyprokash; Harnagea, Catalin; Gedamu, Dawit; Ka, Ibrahima; Chaker, Mohamed; Rosei, Federico; Nechache, Riad

2018-04-18

Perovskite multiferroic oxides are promising materials for the realization of sensitive and switchable photodiodes because of their favorable band gap (<3.0 eV), high absorption coefficient, and tunable internal ferroelectric (FE) polarization. A high-speed switchable photodiode based on multiferroic Bi 2 FeCrO 6 (BFCO)/SrRuO 3 (SRO)-layered heterojunction was fabricated by pulsed laser deposition. The heterojunction photodiode exhibits a large ideality factor ( n = ∼5.0) and a response time as fast as 68 ms, thanks to the effective charge carrier transport and collection at the BFCO/SRO interface. The diode can switch direction when the electric polarization is reversed by an external voltage pulse. The time-resolved photoluminescence decay of the device measured at ∼500 nm demonstrates an ultrafast charge transfer (lifetime = ∼6.4 ns) in BFCO/SRO heteroepitaxial structures. The estimated responsivity value at 500 nm and zero bias is 0.38 mA W -1 , which is so far the highest reported for any FE thin film photodiode. Our work highlights the huge potential for using multiferroic oxides to fabricate highly sensitive and switchable photodiodes.

Tall Amazonian forests are less sensitive to precipitation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giardina, Francesco; Konings, Alexandra G.; Kennedy, Daniel; Alemohammad, Seyed Hamed; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Uriarte, Maria; Gentine, Pierre

2018-06-01

Climate change is altering the dynamics, structure and function of the Amazon, a biome deeply connected to the Earth's carbon cycle. Climate factors that control the spatial and temporal variations in forest photosynthesis have been well studied, but the influence of forest height and age on this controlling effect has rarely been considered. Here, we present remote sensing observations of solar-induced fluorescence (a proxy for photosynthesis), precipitation, vapour-pressure deficit and canopy height, together with estimates of forest age and aboveground biomass. We show that photosynthesis in tall Amazonian forests, that is, forests above 30 m, is three times less sensitive to precipitation variability than in shorter (less than 20 m) forests. Taller Amazonian forests are also found to be older, have more biomass and deeper rooting systems1, which enable them to access deeper soil moisture and make them more resilient to drought. We suggest that forest height and age are an important control of photosynthesis in response to interannual precipitation fluctuations. Although older and taller trees show less sensitivity to precipitation variations, they are more susceptible to fluctuations in vapour-pressure deficit. Our findings illuminate the response of Amazonian forests to water stress, droughts and climate change.

Validity and reliability of self-reported arthritis: Georgia senior centers, 2000-2001.

PubMed

Bombard, Jennifer M; Powell, Kenneth E; Martin, Linda M; Helmick, Charles G; Wilson, William H

2005-04-01

Arthritis and other rheumatic conditions are a common cause of disability among adults in the United States. Telephone interviews of the state-based Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) are used by states and territories to estimate the prevalence of arthritis. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the 1996-2001 BRFSS arthritis case definition in a senior center population. A total of 487 respondents at selected senior centers in Georgia were surveyed by telephone, evaluated 3 to 4 weeks later by board-certified rheumatologists, and completed a written survey in 2000 to 2001. Using the rheumatologists' summary assessment "Does this person have arthritis or a related condition" as the standard, the sensitivity and specificity of the BRFSS arthritis case definitions were calculated. Reliability for the BRFSS arthritis case definition was also calculated by comparing responses to the telephone survey with responses to a written survey. Sensitivity was 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]=65.9-75.6), and the specificity was 70.3% (95% CI=62.9-77.8). The agreement between the telephone and written responses indicating self-reported arthritis was high (kappa=0.68). Analyses were conducted in 2002 to 2004. Self-reported arthritis in the 1996-2001 BRFSS was highly reliable, and moderately sensitive and specific among these senior center participants.

Occupancy Modeling for Improved Accuracy and Understanding of Pathogen Prevalence and Dynamics

PubMed Central

Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.; Kent, Michael L.; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

Most pathogen detection tests are imperfect, with a sensitivity < 100%, thereby resulting in the potential for a false negative, where a pathogen is present but not detected. False negatives in a sample inflate the number of non-detections, negatively biasing estimates of pathogen prevalence. Histological examination of tissues as a diagnostic test can be advantageous as multiple pathogens can be examined and providing important information on associated pathological changes to the host. However, it is usually less sensitive than molecular or microbiological tests for specific pathogens. Our study objectives were to 1) develop a hierarchical occupancy model to examine pathogen prevalence in spring Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and their distribution among host tissues 2) use the model to estimate pathogen-specific test sensitivities and infection rates, and 3) illustrate the effect of using replicate within host sampling on sample sizes required to detect a pathogen. We examined histological sections of replicate tissue samples from spring Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha collected after spawning for common pathogens seen in this population: Apophallus/echinostome metacercariae, Parvicapsula minibicornis, Nanophyetus salmincola/ metacercariae, and Renibacterium salmoninarum. A hierarchical occupancy model was developed to estimate pathogen and tissue-specific test sensitivities and unbiased estimation of host- and organ-level infection rates. Model estimated sensitivities and host- and organ-level infections rates varied among pathogens and model estimated infection rate was higher than prevalence unadjusted for test sensitivity, confirming that prevalence unadjusted for test sensitivity was negatively biased. The modeling approach provided an analytical approach for using hierarchically structured pathogen detection data from lower sensitivity diagnostic tests, such as histology, to obtain unbiased pathogen prevalence estimates with associated uncertainties. Accounting for test sensitivity using within host replicate samples also required fewer individual fish to be sampled. This approach is useful for evaluating pathogen or microbe community dynamics when test sensitivity is <100%. PMID:25738709

Occupancy modeling for improved accuracy and understanding of pathogen prevalence and dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.; Kent, Michael L.; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

Most pathogen detection tests are imperfect, with a sensitivity < 100%, thereby resulting in the potential for a false negative, where a pathogen is present but not detected. False negatives in a sample inflate the number of non-detections, negatively biasing estimates of pathogen prevalence. Histological examination of tissues as a diagnostic test can be advantageous as multiple pathogens can be examined and providing important information on associated pathological changes to the host. However, it is usually less sensitive than molecular or microbiological tests for specific pathogens. Our study objectives were to 1) develop a hierarchical occupancy model to examine pathogen prevalence in spring Chinook salmonOncorhynchus tshawytscha and their distribution among host tissues 2) use the model to estimate pathogen-specific test sensitivities and infection rates, and 3) illustrate the effect of using replicate within host sampling on sample sizes required to detect a pathogen. We examined histological sections of replicate tissue samples from spring Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha collected after spawning for common pathogens seen in this population:Apophallus/echinostome metacercariae, Parvicapsula minibicornis, Nanophyetus salmincola/metacercariae, and Renibacterium salmoninarum. A hierarchical occupancy model was developed to estimate pathogen and tissue-specific test sensitivities and unbiased estimation of host- and organ-level infection rates. Model estimated sensitivities and host- and organ-level infections rates varied among pathogens and model estimated infection rate was higher than prevalence unadjusted for test sensitivity, confirming that prevalence unadjusted for test sensitivity was negatively biased. The modeling approach provided an analytical approach for using hierarchically structured pathogen detection data from lower sensitivity diagnostic tests, such as histology, to obtain unbiased pathogen prevalence estimates with associated uncertainties. Accounting for test sensitivity using within host replicate samples also required fewer individual fish to be sampled. This approach is useful for evaluating pathogen or microbe community dynamics when test sensitivity is <100%.

Sensitivity of a computer adaptive assessment for measuring functional mobility changes in children enrolled in a community fitness programme.

PubMed

Haley, Stephen M; Fragala-Pinkham, Maria; Ni, Pengsheng

2006-07-01

To examine the relative sensitivity to detect functional mobility changes with a full-length parent questionnaire compared with a computerized adaptive testing version of the questionnaire after a 16-week group fitness programme. Prospective, pre- and posttest study with a 16-week group fitness intervention. Three community-based fitness centres. Convenience sample of children (n = 28) with physical or developmental disabilities. A 16-week group exercise programme held twice a week in a community setting. A full-length (161 items) paper version of a mobility parent questionnaire based on the Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory, but expanded to include expected skills of children up to 15 years old was compared with a 15-item computer adaptive testing version. Both measures were administered at pre- and posttest intervals. Both the full-length Pediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory and the 15-item computer adaptive testing version detected significant changes between pre- and posttest scores, had large effect sizes, and standardized response means, with a modest decrease in the computer adaptive test as compared with the 161-item paper version. Correlations between the computer adaptive and paper formats across pre- and posttest scores ranged from r = 0.76 to 0.86. Both functional mobility test versions were able to detect positive functional changes at the end of the intervention period. Greater variability in score estimates was generated by the computerized adaptive testing version, which led to a relative reduction in sensitivity as defined by the standardized response mean. Extreme scores were generally more difficult for the computer adaptive format to estimate with as much accuracy as scores in the mid-range of the scale. However, the reduction in accuracy and sensitivity, which did not influence the group effect results in this study, is counterbalanced by the large reduction in testing burden.

Spatial patterns of simulated transpiration response to climate variability in a snow dominated mountain ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, L.; Tague, C.L.; Baron, Jill S.

2008-01-01

Transpiration is an important component of soil water storage and stream-flow and is linked with ecosystem productivity, species distribution, and ecosystem health. In mountain environments, complex topography creates heterogeneity in key controls on transpiration as well as logistical challenges for collecting representative measurements. In these settings, ecosystem models can be used to account for variation in space and time of the dominant controls on transpiration and provide estimates of transpiration patterns and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model was used to assess elevational differences in sensitivity of transpiration rates to the spatiotemporal variability of climate variables across the Upper Merced River watershed, Yosemite Valley, California, USA. At the basin scale, predicted annual transpiration was lowest in driest and wettest years, and greatest in moderate precipitation years (R2 = 0.32 and 0.29, based on polynomial regression of maximum snow depth and annual precipitation, respectively). At finer spatial scales, responsiveness of transpiration rates to climate differed along an elevational gradient. Low elevations (1200-1800 m) showed little interannual variation in transpiration due to topographically controlled high soil moistures along the river corridor. Annual conifer stand transpiration at intermediate elevations (1800-2150 m) responded more strongly to precipitation, resulting in a unimodal relationship between transpiration and precipitation where highest transpiration occurred during moderate precipitation levels, regardless of annual air temperatures. Higher elevations (2150-2600 m) maintained this trend, but air temperature sensitivities were greater. At these elevations, snowfall provides enough moisture for growth, and increased temperatures influenced transpiration. Transpiration at the highest elevations (2600-4000 m) showed strong sensitivity to air temperature, little sensitivity to precipitation. Model results suggest elevational differences in vegetation water use and sensitivity to climate were significant and will likely play a key role in controlling responses and vulnerability of Sierra Nevada ecosystems to climate change. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experimental studies on possible regulatory role of nitric oxide on the differential effects of chronic predictable and unpredictable stress on adaptive immune responses.

PubMed

Thakur, Tarun; Gulati, Kavita; Rai, Nishant; Ray, Arunabha

2017-09-01

The present study was designed to investigate the effects of chronic predictable stress (CPS) and chronic unpredictable stress (CUS) on immunological responses in KLH-sensitized rats and involvement of NOergic signaling pathways mediating such responses. Male Wistar rats (200-250g) were exposed to either CPS or CUS for 14days and IgG antibody levels and delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) response was determined to assess changes in adaptive immunity. To evaluate the role of nitric oxide during such immunomodulation, biochemical estimation of stable metabolite of nitric oxide (NOx) and 3-nitrotyrosine (3-NT, a marker of peroxynitrite formation) were done in both blood and brain. Chronic stress exposure resulted in suppression of IgG and DTH response and elevated NOx and 3-NT levels, with a difference in magnitude of response in CPS vs CUS. Pretreatment with aminoguanidine (iNOS inhibitor) caused further reduction of adaptive immune responses and attenuated the increased NOx and 3-NT levels in CPS or CUS exposed rats. On the other hand 7-NI (nNOS inhibitor) did not significantly affect these estimated parameters. The results suggest involvement of iNOS and lesser/no role of nNOS during modulation of adaptive immunity to stress. Thus, the result showed that predictability of stressors results in differential degree of modulation of immune responses and complex NO-mediated signaling mechanisms may be involved during responses. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This source of uncertainty dominates both uncertainty over temperature projections (climate uncertainty) and uncertainty over how sensitive crops or profits are to changes in temperature (response uncertainty). Therefore, constraining how quickly farmers are likely to adapt will be essential for improving our understanding of how climate change will affect food production over the next few decades.

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

DOE PAGES

Terai, C. R.; Klein, S. A.; Zelinka, M. D.

2016-08-26

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIPmore » simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.« less

Use of the DISST Model to Estimate the HOMA and Matsuda Indexes Using Only a Basal Insulin Assay

PubMed Central

Docherty, Paul D.; Chase, J. Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Background: It is hypothesized that early detection of reduced insulin sensitivity (SI) could prompt intervention that may reduce the considerable financial strain type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) places on global health care. Reduction of the cost of already inexpensive SI metrics such as the Matsuda and HOMA indexes would enable more widespread, economically feasible use of these metrics for screening. The goal of this research was to determine a means of reducing the number of insulin samples and therefore the cost required to provide an accurate Matsuda Index value. Method: The Dynamic Insulin Sensitivity and Secretion Test (DISST) model was used with the glucose and basal insulin measurements from an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) to predict patient insulin responses. The insulin response to the OGTT was determined via population based regression analysis that incorporated the 60-minute glucose and basal insulin values. Results: The proposed method derived accurate and precise Matsuda Indices as compared to the fully sampled Matsuda (R = .95) using only the basal assay insulin-level data and 4 glucose measurements. Using a model employing the basal insulin also allows for determination of the 1-day HOMA value. Conclusion: The DISST model was successfully modified to allow for the accurate prediction an individual’s insulin response to the OGTT. In turn, this enabled highly accurate and precise estimation of a Matsuda Index using only the glucose and basal insulin assays. As insulin assays account for the majority of the cost of the Matsuda Index, this model offers a significant reduction in assay cost. PMID:24876431

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terai, C. R.; Klein, S. A.; Zelinka, M. D.

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIPmore » simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.« less

Bayesian nonlinear structural FE model and seismic input identification for damage assessment of civil structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astroza, Rodrigo; Ebrahimian, Hamed; Li, Yong; Conte, Joel P.

2017-09-01

A methodology is proposed to update mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models of civil structures subjected to unknown input excitation. The approach allows to jointly estimate unknown time-invariant model parameters of a nonlinear FE model of the structure and the unknown time histories of input excitations using spatially-sparse output response measurements recorded during an earthquake event. The unscented Kalman filter, which circumvents the computation of FE response sensitivities with respect to the unknown model parameters and unknown input excitations by using a deterministic sampling approach, is employed as the estimation tool. The use of measurement data obtained from arrays of heterogeneous sensors, including accelerometers, displacement sensors, and strain gauges is investigated. Based on the estimated FE model parameters and input excitations, the updated nonlinear FE model can be interrogated to detect, localize, classify, and assess damage in the structure. Numerically simulated response data of a three-dimensional 4-story 2-by-1 bay steel frame structure with six unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation, and a three-dimensional 5-story 2-by-1 bay reinforced concrete frame structure with nine unknown model parameters subjected to unknown bi-directional horizontal seismic excitation are used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology. The results of the validation studies show the excellent performance and robustness of the proposed algorithm to jointly estimate unknown FE model parameters and unknown input excitations.

A designed screening study with prespecified combinations of factor settings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-cook, Christine M; Robinson, Timothy J

2009-01-01

In many applications, the experimenter has limited options about what factor combinations can be chosen for a designed study. Consider a screening study for a production process involving five input factors whose levels have been previously established. The goal of the study is to understand the effect of each factor on the response, a variable that is expensive to measure and results in destruction of the part. From an inventory of available parts with known factor values, we wish to identify a best collection of factor combinations with which to estimate the factor effects. Though the observational nature of themore » study cannot establish a causal relationship involving the response and the factors, the study can increase understanding of the underlying process. The study can also help determine where investment should be made to control input factors during production that will maximally influence the response. Because the factor combinations are observational, the chosen model matrix will be nonorthogonal and will not allow independent estimation of factor effects. In this manuscript we borrow principles from design of experiments to suggest an 'optimal' selection of factor combinations. Specifically, we consider precision of model parameter estimates, the issue of replication, and abilities to detect lack of fit and to estimate two-factor interactions. Through an example, we present strategies for selecting a subset of factor combinations that simultaneously balance multiple objectives, conduct a limited sensitivity analysis, and provide practical guidance for implementing our techniques across a variety of quality engineering disciplines.« less

Neural and psychosocial mechanisms of pain sensitivity in fibromyalgia.

PubMed

English, Brian

2014-06-01

Fibromyalgia is a chronic musculoskeletal pain disorder that affects an estimated 5 million adults in the U.S. The hallmark is burning, searing, tingling, shooting, stabbing, deep aching, or sharp pain. Fibromyalgia is generally considered to be a "central sensitivity syndrome" where central sensitization is regarded as the cause of pain in its own right. Nonetheless, the case continues to be made that all central and spatially distributed peripheral components of fibromyalgia pain would fade if the peripheral generators could be silenced. Although neural mechanisms are clearly important in pain sensitivity, cognitive and social mechanisms also need to be considered. The aim of this review is to examine four mechanisms responsible for heightened pain sensitivity in fibromyalgia: peripheral sensitization, central sensitization, cognitive-emotional sensitization, and interpersonal sensitization. The purpose of framing the review in terms of pain sensitivity in fibromyalgia is to highlight that different mechanisms of sensitization are appropriately regarded as intervening variables when it comes to understanding individual differences in the experience of pain. The paper concludes by considering the implications of the findings of the review for explanations of fibromyalgia pain by nurses working in multidisciplinary teams. The trend appears to be able to explain the cause of fibromyalgia pain in terms of sensitization per se. The recommended alternative is to explain fibromyalgia pain in terms of changes in pain sensitivity and the role of underlying neural and psychosocial mechanisms. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Schottky-contact plasmonic rectenna for biosensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavirad, Mohammad; Siadat Mousavi, Saba; Roy, Langis; Berini, Pierre

2013-10-01

We propose a plasmonic gold nanodipole array on silicon, forming a Schottky contact thereon, and covered by water. The behavior of this array under normal excitation has been extensively investigated. Trends have been found and confirmed by identification of the mode propagating in nanodipoles and its properties. This device can be used to detect infrared radiation below the bandgap energy of the substrate via internal photoelectric effect (IPE). Also we estimate its responsivity and detection limit. Finally, we assess the potential of the structure for bulk and surface (bio) chemical sensing. Based on modal results an analytical model has been proposed to estimate the sensitivity of the device. Results show a good agreement between numerical and analytical interpretations.

Sensorless Load Torque Estimation and Passivity Based Control of Buck Converter Fed DC Motor

PubMed Central

Kumar, S. Ganesh; Thilagar, S. Hosimin

2015-01-01

Passivity based control of DC motor in sensorless configuration is proposed in this paper. Exact tracking error dynamics passive output feedback control is used for stabilizing the speed of Buck converter fed DC motor under various load torques such as constant type, fan type, propeller type, and unknown load torques. Under load conditions, sensorless online algebraic approach is proposed, and it is compared with sensorless reduced order observer approach. The former produces better response in estimating the load torque. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to select the appropriate control variables. Simulation and experimental results fully confirm the superiority of the proposed approach suggested in this paper. PMID:25893208

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

2017-08-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria G.; Rendon, Samuel H.; Banta, John

2017-01-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

[Nootropic and analgesic effects of Semax following different routes of administration].

PubMed

Manchenko, D M; Glazova, N Iu; Levitskaia, N G; Andreeva, L A; Kamenskiĭ, A A; Miasoedov, N F

2010-10-01

Heptapeptide Semax (MEHFPGP) is the fragment of ACTH(4-10) analogue with prolonged neurotropic activity. The aim of the present work was to study the Semax effects on learning capability and pain sensitivity in white rats following intraperitoneal and intranasal administration in different doses. Semax nootropic effects were studied in the test of acquisition of passive avoidance task. Pain sensitivity was estimated in Randall-Selitto paw-withdrawal test. It was shown that Semax exerts nootropic and analgesic activities following intraperitoneal administration. Analysis of dependence of these effects on dose resulted in different dose-response curves. Following intranasal administration, Semax was more potent in learning improvement compared to intraperitoneal administration. The peptide failed to affect the animal pain sensitivity following intranasal administration as opposed to intraperitoneal administration. The data obtained suggest different mechanisms and brain structures involved in realization of the nootropic and analgesic effects of Semax.

A Framework for Context Sensitive Risk-Based Access Control in Medical Information Systems

PubMed Central

Choi, Donghee; Kim, Dohoon; Park, Seog

2015-01-01

Since the access control environment has changed and the threat of insider information leakage has come to the fore, studies on risk-based access control models that decide access permissions dynamically have been conducted vigorously. Medical information systems should protect sensitive data such as medical information from insider threat and enable dynamic access control depending on the context such as life-threatening emergencies. In this paper, we suggest an approach and framework for context sensitive risk-based access control suitable for medical information systems. This approach categorizes context information, estimating and applying risk through context- and treatment-based permission profiling and specifications by expanding the eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) to apply risk. The proposed framework supports quick responses to medical situations and prevents unnecessary insider data access through dynamic access authorization decisions in accordance with the severity of the context and treatment. PMID:26075013

Sensitivity of predicted bioaerosol exposure from open windrow composting facilities to ADMS dispersion model parameters.

PubMed

Douglas, P; Tyrrel, S F; Kinnersley, R P; Whelan, M; Longhurst, P J; Walsh, K; Pollard, S J T; Drew, G H

2016-12-15

Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are not well understood, and require improved exposure classification. Dispersion modelling has great potential to improve exposure classification, but has not yet been extensively used or validated in this context. We present a sensitivity analysis of the ADMS dispersion model specific to input parameter ranges relevant to bioaerosol emissions from open windrow composting. This analysis provides an aid for model calibration by prioritising parameter adjustment and targeting independent parameter estimation. Results showed that predicted exposure was most sensitive to the wet and dry deposition modules and the majority of parameters relating to emission source characteristics, including pollutant emission velocity, source geometry and source height. This research improves understanding of the accuracy of model input data required to provide more reliable exposure predictions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial and temporal processing in healthy aging: implications for perceptions of driving skills.

PubMed

Conlon, Elizabeth; Herkes, Kathleen

2008-07-01

Sensitivity to the attributes of a stimulus (form or motion) and accuracy when detecting rapidly presented stimulus information were measured in older (N = 36) and younger (N = 37) groups. Before and after practice, the older group was significantly less sensitive to global motion (but not to form) and less accurate on a rapid sequencing task when detecting the individual elements presented in long but not short sequences. These effect sizes produced power for the different analyses that ranged between 0.5 and 1.00. The reduced sensitivity found among older individuals to temporal but not spatial stimuli, adds support to previous findings of a selective age-related deficit in temporal processing. Older women were significantly less sensitive than older men, younger men and younger women on the global motion task. Gender effects were evident when, in response to global motion stimuli, complex extraction and integration processes needed to be undertaken rapidly. Significant moderate correlations were found between age, global motion sensitivity and reports of perceptions of other vehicles and road signs when driving. These associations suggest that reduced motion sensitivity may produce functional difficulties for the older adults when judging speeds or estimating gaps in traffic while driving.

Interactions Between Mineral Surfaces, Substrates, Enzymes, and Microbes Result in Hysteretic Temperature Sensitivities and Microbial Carbon Use Efficiencies and Weaker Predicted Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

2014-12-01

We hypothesize that the large observed variability in decomposition temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. To test this hypothesis, we developed a numerical model that integrates the Dynamic Energy Budget concept for microbial physiology, microbial trait-based community structure and competition, process-specific thermodynamically ­­based temperature sensitivity, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We show, because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes, and microbes, both temperature sensitivity and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic and highly variable. Further, by mimicking the traditional approach to interpreting soil incubation observations, we demonstrate that the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization for temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4 K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily, and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current earth system models likely over-estimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming.

Hirabayashi, Satoshi; Kroll, Charles N.; Nowak, David J. 2011. Component-based development and sensitivity analyses of an air pollutant dry deposition model. Environmental Modelling & Software. 26(6): 804-816.

Treesearch

Satoshi Hirabayashi; Chuck Kroll; David Nowak

2011-01-01

The Urban Forest Effects-Deposition model (UFORE-D) was developed with a component-based modeling approach. Functions of the model were separated into components that are responsible for user interface, data input/output, and core model functions. Taking advantage of the component-based approach, three UFORE-D applications were developed: a base application to estimate...

Graphene-based ultrasonic detector for photoacoustic imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Song, Wei; Zhang, Chonglei; Fang, Hui; Min, Changjun; Yuan, Xiaocong

2018-03-01

Taking advantage of optical absorption imaging contrast, photoacoustic imaging technology is able to map the volumetric distribution of the optical absorption properties within biological tissues. Unfortunately, traditional piezoceramics-based transducers used in most photoacoustic imaging setups have inadequate frequency response, resulting in both poor depth resolution and inaccurate quantification of the optical absorption information. Instead of the piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer, we develop a graphene-based optical sensor for detecting photoacoustic pressure. The refractive index in the coupling medium is modulated due to photoacoustic pressure perturbation, which creates the variation of the polarization-sensitive optical absorption property of the graphene. As a result, the photoacoustic detection is realized through recording the reflectance intensity difference of polarization light. The graphene-based detector process an estimated noise-equivalentpressure (NEP) sensitivity of 550 Pa over 20-MHz bandwidth with a nearby linear pressure response from 11.0 kPa to 53.0 kPa. Further, a graphene-based photoacoustic microscopy is built, and non-invasively reveals the microvascular anatomy in mouse ears label-freely.

Precipitation Estimation Using L-Band and C-Band Soil Moisture Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Brocca, Luca; Crow, Wade T.; Burgin, Mariko S.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.

2016-01-01

An established methodology for estimating precipitation amounts from satellite-based soil moisture retrievals is applied to L-band products from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite missions and to a C-band product from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) mission. The precipitation estimates so obtained are evaluated against in situ (gauge-based) precipitation observations from across the globe. The precipitation estimation skill achieved using the L-band SMAP and SMOS data sets is higher than that obtained with the C-band product, as might be expected given that L-band is sensitive to a thicker layer of soil and thereby provides more information on the response of soil moisture to precipitation. The square of the correlation coefficient between the SMAP-based precipitation estimates and the observations (for aggregations to approximately100 km and 5 days) is on average about 0.6 in areas of high rain gauge density. Satellite missions specifically designed to monitor soil moisture thus do provide significant information on precipitation variability, information that could contribute to efforts in global precipitation estimation.

Comparing adaptive procedures for estimating the psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task.

PubMed

Shen, Yi

2013-05-01

A subject's sensitivity to a stimulus variation can be studied by estimating the psychometric function. Generally speaking, three parameters of the psychometric function are of interest: the performance threshold, the slope of the function, and the rate at which attention lapses occur. In the present study, three psychophysical procedures were used to estimate the three-parameter psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task. These were an up-down staircase (up-down) procedure, an entropy-based Bayesian (entropy) procedure, and an updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. Data collected from four young, normal-hearing listeners showed that while all three procedures provided similar estimates of the threshold parameter, the up-down procedure performed slightly better in estimating the slope and lapse rate for 200 trials of data collection. When the lapse rate was increased by mixing in random responses for the three adaptive procedures, the larger lapse rate was especially detrimental to the efficiency of the up-down procedure, and the UML procedure provided better estimates of the threshold and slope than did the other two procedures.

[Experimental analysis of some determinants of inductive reasoning].

PubMed

Ono, K

1989-02-01

Three experiments were conducted from a behavioral perspective to investigate the determinants of inductive reasoning and to compare some methodological differences. The dependent variable used in these experiments was the threshold of confident response (TCR), which was defined as "the minimal sample size required to establish generalization from instances." Experiment 1 examined the effects of population size on inductive reasoning, and the results from 35 college students showed that the TCR varied in proportion to the logarithm of population size. In Experiment 2, 30 subjects showed distinct sensitivity to both prior probability and base-rate. The results from 70 subjects who participated in Experiment 3 showed that the TCR was affected by its consequences (risk condition), and especially, that humans were sensitive to a loss situation. These results demonstrate the sensitivity of humans to statistical variables in inductive reasoning. Furthermore, methodological comparison indicated that the experimentally observed values of TCR were close to, but not as precise as the optimal values predicted by Bayes' model. On the other hand, the subjective TCR estimated by subjects was highly discrepant from the observed TCR. These findings suggest that various aspects of inductive reasoning can be fruitfully investigated not only from subjective estimations such as probability likelihood but also from an objective behavioral perspective.

Effect of confounding variables on hemodynamic response function estimation using averaging and deconvolution analysis: An event-related NIRS study.

PubMed

Aarabi, Ardalan; Osharina, Victoria; Wallois, Fabrice

2017-07-15

Slow and rapid event-related designs are used in fMRI and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) experiments to temporally characterize the brain hemodynamic response to discrete events. Conventional averaging (CA) and the deconvolution method (DM) are the two techniques commonly used to estimate the Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF) profile in event-related designs. In this study, we conducted a series of simulations using synthetic and real NIRS data to examine the effect of the main confounding factors, including event sequence timing parameters, different types of noise, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), temporal autocorrelation and temporal filtering on the performance of these techniques in slow and rapid event-related designs. We also compared systematic errors in the estimates of the fitted HRF amplitude, latency and duration for both techniques. We further compared the performance of deconvolution methods based on Finite Impulse Response (FIR) basis functions and gamma basis sets. Our results demonstrate that DM was much less sensitive to confounding factors than CA. Event timing was the main parameter largely affecting the accuracy of CA. In slow event-related designs, deconvolution methods provided similar results to those obtained by CA. In rapid event-related designs, our results showed that DM outperformed CA for all SNR, especially above -5 dB regardless of the event sequence timing and the dynamics of background NIRS activity. Our results also show that periodic low-frequency systemic hemodynamic fluctuations as well as phase-locked noise can markedly obscure hemodynamic evoked responses. Temporal autocorrelation also affected the performance of both techniques by inducing distortions in the time profile of the estimated hemodynamic response with inflated t-statistics, especially at low SNRs. We also found that high-pass temporal filtering could substantially affect the performance of both techniques by removing the low-frequency components of HRF profiles. Our results emphasize the importance of characterization of event timing, background noise and SNR when estimating HRF profiles using CA and DM in event-related designs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkó, Zoltán, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl

2014-03-01

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work ismore » focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (15–20), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.« less

Single-layer graphene/titanium oxide cubic nanorods array/FTO heterojunction for sensitive ultraviolet light detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Feng-Xia; Wang, Jiu-Zhen; Wang, Yi; Lin, Yi; Liang, Lin; Gao, Yang; Luo, Lin-Bao

2017-12-01

In this study, we report on the fabrication of a sensitive ultraviolet photodetector (UVPD) by simply transferring single-layer graphene (SLG) on rutile titanium oxide cubic nanorod (TiO2NRs) array. The cubic TiO2NRs array with strong light trapping effect was grown on fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) glass through a hydrothermal approach. The as-assembled UVPD was very sensitive to UV light illumination, but virtually blind to white light illumination. The responsivity and specific detectivity were estimated to be 52.1 A/W and 4.3 × 1012 Jones, respectively. What is more, in order to optimize device performance of UVPD, a wet-chemistry treatment was then employed to reduce the high concentration of defects in TiO2NRs during hydrothermal growth. It was found that the UVPD after treatment showed obvious decrease in sensitivity, but the response speed (rise time: 80 ms, fall time: 160 ms) and specific detectivity were substantially increased. It is also found that the speicific detectivity was imporoved by six-fold to 3.2 × 1013 Jones, which was the best result in comparison with previously reported TiO2 nanostructures or thin film based UVPDs. This totality of this study shows that the present SLG/TiO2NR/FTO UVPD may find potential application in future optoelectronic devices and systems.

Predictive Uncertainty And Parameter Sensitivity Of A Sediment-Flux Model: Nitrogen Flux and Sediment Oxygen Demand

EPA Science Inventory

Estimating model predictive uncertainty is imperative to informed environmental decision making and management of water resources. This paper applies the Generalized Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to examine parameter sensitivity and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation...

Estimation of regional cutaneous cold sensitivity by analysis of the gasping response.

PubMed

Burke, W E; Mekjavić, I B

1991-11-01

Regional cutaneous sensitivity to cooling was assessed in males by separately immersing four discrete skin regions in cold water (15 degrees C) during head-out immersion. The response measured was gasping at the onset of immersion; the gasping response appears to be the result of a nonthermoregulatory neurogenic drive from cutaneous cold receptors. Subjects of similar body proportions wore a neoprene "dry" suit modified to allow exposure to the water of either the arms, upper torso, lower torso, or legs, while keeping the unexposed skin regions thermoneutral. Each subject was immersed to the sternal notch in all four conditions of partial exposure plus one condition of whole body exposure. The five cold water conditions were matched by control immersions in lukewarm (34 degrees C) water, and trials were randomized. The magnitude of the gasping response was determined by mouth occlusion pressure (P0.1). For each subject, P0.1 values for the 1st min of immersion were integrated, and control trial values, although minimal, were subtracted from their cold water counterpart to account for any gasping due to the experimental design. Results were averaged and showed that the highest P0.1 values were elicited from whole body exposure, followed in descending order by exposures of the upper torso, legs, lower torso, and arms. Correction of the P0.1 response for differences in exposed surface area (A) and cooling stimulus (delta T) between regions gave a cold sensitivity index [CSI, P0.1/(A.delta T)] for each region and showed that the index for the upper torso was significantly higher than that for the arms or legs; no significant difference was observed between the indexes for the upper and lower torso.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Predicted persistence and response times of linear and cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes in global and local environments.

PubMed

Kim, Jaeshin; Mackay, Donald; Whelan, Michael John

2018-03-01

We investigated the response times of eight volatile methylsiloxanes (VMSs) in environmental systems at different scales from local to global, with a particular focus on overall loss rates after cessation of emissions. In part, this is driven by proposals to restrict the use of some of these compounds in certain products in Europe. The GloboPOP model estimated low absolute Arctic Contamination Potentials for all VMSs and rapid response times in all media except sediment. VMSs are predicted to be distributed predominantly in air where they react with OH radicals, leading to short response times. After cessation of emissions VMSs concentrations in the environment are expected to decrease rapidly from current levels. Response times in specific water and sediment systems were evaluated using a dynamic QWASI model. Response times were sensitive to both physico-chemical properties and environmental characteristics. Degradation was predicted to play the most important role in determining response times in water and sediment. In the case of the lowest molecular weight VMSs such as L2 and D3, response times were essentially independent of environmental characteristics due to fast hydrolysis in water and sediment. However, response times for the other VMSs are system-specific. They are relatively short in shallow water bodies but increase with depth due to the diminishing role of volatilization on concentration change as volume to surface area ratio increases. In sediment, degradation and resuspension rates also contribute most to the response times. The estimated response times for local environments are useful for planning future monitoring programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rethinking non-inferiority: a practical trial design for optimising treatment duration.

PubMed

Quartagno, Matteo; Walker, A Sarah; Carpenter, James R; Phillips, Patrick Pj; Parmar, Mahesh Kb

2018-06-01

Background Trials to identify the minimal effective treatment duration are needed in different therapeutic areas, including bacterial infections, tuberculosis and hepatitis C. However, standard non-inferiority designs have several limitations, including arbitrariness of non-inferiority margins, choice of research arms and very large sample sizes. Methods We recast the problem of finding an appropriate non-inferior treatment duration in terms of modelling the entire duration-response curve within a pre-specified range. We propose a multi-arm randomised trial design, allocating patients to different treatment durations. We use fractional polynomials and spline-based methods to flexibly model the duration-response curve. We call this a 'Durations design'. We compare different methods in terms of a scaled version of the area between true and estimated prediction curves. We evaluate sensitivity to key design parameters, including sample size, number and position of arms. Results A total sample size of ~ 500 patients divided into a moderate number of equidistant arms (5-7) is sufficient to estimate the duration-response curve within a 5% error margin in 95% of the simulations. Fractional polynomials provide similar or better results than spline-based methods in most scenarios. Conclusion Our proposed practical randomised trial 'Durations design' shows promising performance in the estimation of the duration-response curve; subject to a pending careful investigation of its inferential properties, it provides a potential alternative to standard non-inferiority designs, avoiding many of their limitations, and yet being fairly robust to different possible duration-response curves. The trial outcome is the whole duration-response curve, which may be used by clinicians and policymakers to make informed decisions, facilitating a move away from a forced binary hypothesis testing paradigm.

Dynamic response signatures of a scaled model platform for floating wind turbines in an ocean wave basin

PubMed Central

Jaksic, V.; O'Shea, R.; Cahill, P.; Murphy, J.; Mandic, D. P.; Pakrashi, V.

2015-01-01

Understanding of dynamic behaviour of offshore wind floating substructures is extremely important in relation to design, operation, maintenance and management of floating wind farms. This paper presents assessment of nonlinear signatures of dynamic responses of a scaled tension-leg platform (TLP) in a wave tank exposed to different regular wave conditions and sea states characterized by the Bretschneider, the Pierson–Moskowitz and the JONSWAP spectra. Dynamic responses of the TLP were monitored at different locations using load cells, a camera-based motion recognition system and a laser Doppler vibrometer. The analysis of variability of the TLP responses and statistical quantification of their linearity or nonlinearity, as non-destructive means of structural monitoring from the output-only condition, remains a challenging problem. In this study, the delay vector variance (DVV) method is used to statistically study the degree of nonlinearity of measured response signals from a TLP. DVV is observed to create a marker estimating the degree to which a change in signal nonlinearity reflects real-time behaviour of the structure and also to establish the sensitivity of the instruments employed to these changes. The findings can be helpful in establishing monitoring strategies and control strategies for undesirable levels or types of dynamic response and can help to better estimate changes in system characteristics over the life cycle of the structure. PMID:25583866

Glutamatergic Signaling Drives Ketamine-Mediated Response in Depression: Evidence from Dynamic Causal Modeling.

PubMed

Gilbert, Jessica R; Yarrington, Julia S; Wills, Kathleen E; Nugent, Allison C; Zarate, Carlos A

2018-04-13

The glutamatergic modulator ketamine has rapid antidepressant effects in individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar depression. Thus, modulating glutamatergic transmission may be critical to effectively treating depression, though the mechanisms by which this occurs are not fully understood. This double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled study analyzed data from 18 drug-free MDD subjects and 18 heathy controls who received a single intravenous infusion of ketamine hydrochloride (0.5 mg/kg) as well as an intravenous saline placebo. Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) recordings were collected prior to the first infusion and six to nine hours after both ketamine and placebo infusions. During scanning, participants passively received tactile stimulation to the right index finger. Antidepressant response was assessed across timepoints using the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was used to measure changes in -amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA)- and N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA)-mediated connectivity estimates in MDD subjects and controls using a simple model of somatosensory evoked responses. Both MDD and healthy subjects showed ketamine-mediated NMDA-blockade sensitization, with MDD subjects showing enhanced NMDA connectivity estimates in backward connections, and controls showing enhanced NMDA connectivity estimates in forward connections in our model. Within our MDD subject group, ketamine efficacy-as measured by improved mood ratings-correlated with reduced NMDA and AMPA connectivity estimates in discrete extrinsic connections within the somatosensory cortical network. These findings suggest that AMPA- and NMDA-mediated glutamatergic signaling play a key role in antidepressant response to ketamine and, further, that DCM is a powerful tool for modeling AMPA- and NMDA-mediated connectivity in vivo. NCT#00088699.

Note: Dissolved hydrogen detection in power transformer oil based on chemically etched fiber Bragg grating.

PubMed

Jiang, Jun; Ma, Guo-ming; Song, Hong-tu; Zhou, Hong-yang; Li, Cheng-rong; Luo, Ying-ting; Wang, Hong-bin

2015-10-01

A fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor based on chemically etched cladding to detect dissolved hydrogen is proposed and studied in this paper. Low hydrogen concentration tests have been carried out in mixed gases and transformer oil to investigate the repeatability and sensitivity. Moreover, to estimate the influence of etched cladding thickness, a physical model of FBG-based hydrogen sensor is analyzed. Experimental results prove that thin cladding chemically etched by HF acid solution improves the response to hydrogen detection in oil effectively. At last, the sensitivity of FBG sensor chemically etched 16 μm could be as high as 0.060 pm/(μl/l), increased by more than 30% in comparison to un-etched FBG.

Assessing the sensitivity of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Canada's cattle population, 2009-2013.

PubMed

El Allaki, Farouk; Harrington, Noel; Howden, Krista

2016-11-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to estimate the annual sensitivity of Canada's bTB surveillance system and its three system components (slaughter surveillance, export testing and disease investigation) using a scenario tree modelling approach, and (2) to identify key model parameters that influence the estimates of the surveillance system sensitivity (SSSe). To achieve these objectives, we designed stochastic scenario tree models for three surveillance system components included in the analysis. Demographic data, slaughter data, export testing data, and disease investigation data from 2009 to 2013 were extracted for input into the scenario trees. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key influential parameters on SSSe estimates. The median annual SSSe estimates generated from the study were very high, ranging from 0.95 (95% probability interval [PI]: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). Median annual sensitivity estimates for the slaughter surveillance component ranged from 0.95 (95% PI: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). This shows that slaughter surveillance to be the major contributor to overall surveillance system sensitivity with a high probability to detect M. bovis infection if present at a prevalence of 0.00028% or greater during the study period. The export testing and disease investigation components had extremely low component sensitivity estimates-the maximum median sensitivity estimates were 0.02 (95% PI: 0.014-0.023) and 0.0061 (95% PI: 0.0056-0.0066) respectively. The three most influential input parameters on the model's output (SSSe) were the probability of a granuloma being detected at slaughter inspection, the probability of a granuloma being present in older animals (≥12 months of age), and the probability of a granuloma sample being submitted to the laboratory. Additional studies are required to reduce the levels of uncertainty and variability associated with these three parameters influencing the surveillance system sensitivity. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ADHD Is Highly Prevalent in Patients Seeking Treatment for Cannabis Use Disorders.

PubMed

Notzon, Daniel P; Pavlicova, Martina; Glass, Andrew; Mariani, John J; Mahony, Amy L; Brooks, Daniel J; Levin, Frances R

2016-03-31

To estimate the prevalence of ADHD and determine an effective screening test for ADHD in a population-seeking treatment for cannabis use disorders. The Conners Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview forDiagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition(DSM-IV; CAADID) was used to generate sensitivity and specificity data for ADHD screening tests, which were then administered to 99 participants seeking treatment for cannabis use disorders to estimate ADHD prevalence. The prevalence estimated from the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS) was 45% (sensitivity = 0.88, sensitivity of 0.75), from the Conners Adult ADHD Rating Scale (CAARS) 34% (sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.91), from the WURS + CAARS 36% (sensitivity = 0.71, specificity = 0.95), and from the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale (ASRS) 46% (sensitivity = 0.61, specificity = 0.86). The prevalence of ADHD in adults seeking treatment for cannabis use disorders is estimated to be between 34% and 46%. The WURS paired with the CAARS provides excellent sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of ADHD in this population. © The Author(s) 2016.

ESTIMATION OF AQUATIC SPECIES SENSITIVITY USING INTERSPECIES CORRELATION AND ACUTE TO CHRONIC TOXICITY MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract for presentation

Estimation of aquatic species sensitivity using interspecies correlation and acute to chronic toxicity models

Determining species sensitivity of aquatic organisms to contaminants is a critical component of criteria development and ecolog...

Estimates of the dissipative heat and axial torque generated by ocean tides on icy satellites in the outer solar system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyler, R.

2012-09-01

The tidal flow response generated in a satellite ocean depends strongly on the ocean configuration parameters as these parameters control the form and frequencies of the ocean's natural modes of oscillation; if there is a near match between the form and frequency of one of these natural modes and that of one of the available tidal forcing constituents, the ocean can be resonantly excited, producing a strong tidal response. The fundamental elements of the response are described by the tidal flow and surface fluctuations. Derivative elements of the response include the associated dissipative heat, stress, and forces/torques. The dissipative heat has received much previous attention as it may be important in explaining the heat budget on several of the satellites in the Outer Solar System. While these estimates will be reviewed and compared with the tidal dissipation estimates compiled in Hussman et al. (2010), the primary goal in this presentation is to extend the analysis to consider the tidally generated axial torque on the satellites and the potential consquences for rotation. Interestingly, even a synchronously rotating satellite will, if a global fluid layer is included, experience a complex set of opportunities for torques in both the prograde and retrograde sense. The amplitude and sense of the torque sensitively depends on the ocean parameters controlling the tidal response. This sensitivity, combined with expected feedbacks whereby the tides affect the orbital parameters, suggests that the evolution of the satellite system will experience phases of both prograde and retrograde tidal torques during its evolution. A related point is that parameters of the ocean might be inferred from inferences or observations of torque or rotational deviations. In the panels to the right we show the nondimensional tidal torques associated with obliquity (top) and eccentricity (bottom). The parameters described in the labeling are the fluid density ρ, surface gravity g, ocean surface area A, tidal equilibrium height ηF, dissipation quality factor Q,and c=(gh)1/2, cr=Ωa, with ocean thickness h, rotation rate Ω, and radius a. Torque due to tides forced by obliquity as a function of the parameters c/cr and Q. Retrograde ("Westward") and prograde ("Eastward") components shown in left and right panels, respectively. Log10 scale shown in colorbar.

Bayesian estimation of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of a nervous necrosis virus antibody ELISA.

PubMed

Jaramillo, Diana; Dürr, Salome; Hick, Paul; Whittington, Richard

2016-01-01

Diagnosis of nervous necrosis virus (NNV) infection in susceptible fish species is mostly performed post-mortem due to the neurotropism of the causative agent and the only validated diagnostic assays require samples from brain and retinal tissue. However, a non-lethal alternative to test for exposure of fish to NNV is needed. An indirect ELISA for the detection of anti-NNV antibodies in was recently developed and evaluated to detect responses in the sera from immunized fish. For this study, we assessed the accuracy of the assay at detecting specific antibodies from naturally exposed fish using field samples from populations with differing infection status. We applied a Bayesian model, using RTqPCR as a second test. Median estimates of the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the VNN ELISA were 81.8% and 86.7%, respectively. We concluded that the assay was fit for the purpose of identifying animals in naturally exposed populations. With further evaluation in larger populations the test might be used to inform implementation of control measures, and for estimating infection prevalence to facilitate risk analysis. To our knowledge this is the first report on the diagnostic accuracy of an antibody ELISA for an infectious disease in finfish. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Responses of lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) and rhizobia to copper-based fungicide application in two contrasting soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Martin; Dober, Melanie; Jöchlinger, Lisa; Keiblinger, Katharina; Soja, Gerhard; Mentler, Axel; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Bruckner, Alexander; Golestani Fard, Alireza; Wenzel, Walter; Zehetner, Franz

2016-04-01

For more than 120 years, salts of copper (Cu) have been used in viticulture to prevent damages by fungal diseases. Due to restrictions in the use of synthetic fungicides and mineral fertilizers, organic viticulture depends on Cu as well as on biological nitrogen fixation. Here, we conducted an eco-toxicological pot experiment with an acidic, sandy soil and a calcareous, loamy soil and incrementally increasing fungicide application rates from 0 to 5000 mg Cu kg-1 soil. Lucerne (Medicago sativa L. cultivar. Plato) was grown in the pots for 3 months under greenhouse conditions. Acetylene reduction assays performed with harvested nodules showed no response to elevated soil Cu concentrations indicating that the nitrogen fixing capacity of rhizobia was not compromised by Cu in our experiment. Nevertheless, the nodule biomass was very sensitive to Cu and strongly decreased due to reduced amounts of fine roots and less energy supply by the plant. Legumes are known to be Cu-sensitive, and our contribution also showed a decrease in harvest by 50 % (EC50) at 21 mg kg-1 plant Cu tissue concentration in the acidic soil and at 30 mg kg-1 in the calcareous soil. This corresponded to diffusional fluxes measured by diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) of 202 and 368 fmol cm-2 s-1, respectively. DGT measurements showed that in the acidic soil, Cu was 2 to 10 times more available for plants, depending on the concentration applied, than in the calcareous soil. A modeling approach for estimating the effective concentration (EC) by including the DGT-estimated plant Cu content and the pH produced more accurate values (NRMSE of 21.9 to 20.1 %) than EC directly estimated from DGT.

A discourse on sensitivity analysis for discretely-modeled structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelman, Howard M.; Haftka, Raphael T.

1991-01-01

A descriptive review is presented of the most recent methods for performing sensitivity analysis of the structural behavior of discretely-modeled systems. The methods are generally but not exclusively aimed at finite element modeled structures. Topics included are: selections of finite difference step sizes; special consideration for finite difference sensitivity of iteratively-solved response problems; first and second derivatives of static structural response; sensitivity of stresses; nonlinear static response sensitivity; eigenvalue and eigenvector sensitivities for both distinct and repeated eigenvalues; and sensitivity of transient response for both linear and nonlinear structural response.

Evolution of a predator-induced, nonlinear reaction norm.

PubMed

Carter, Mauricio J; Lind, Martin I; Dennis, Stuart R; Hentley, William; Beckerman, Andrew P

2017-08-30

Inducible, anti-predator traits are a classic example of phenotypic plasticity. Their evolutionary dynamics depend on their genetic basis, the historical pattern of predation risk that populations have experienced and current selection gradients. When populations experience predators with contrasting hunting strategies and size preferences, theory suggests contrasting micro-evolutionary responses to selection. Daphnia pulex is an ideal species to explore the micro-evolutionary response of anti-predator traits because they face heterogeneous predation regimes, sometimes experiencing only invertebrate midge predators and other times experiencing vertebrate fish and invertebrate midge predators. We explored plausible patterns of adaptive evolution of a predator-induced morphological reaction norm. We combined estimates of selection gradients that characterize the various habitats that D. pulex experiences with detail on the quantitative genetic architecture of inducible morphological defences. Our data reveal a fine scale description of daphnid defensive reaction norms, and a strong covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues. By analysing the response of the reaction norm to plausible, predator-specific selection gradients, we show how in the context of this covariance, micro-evolution may be more uniform than predicted from size-selective predation theory. Our results show how covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues for morphological defence can shape the evolutionary trajectory of predator-induced defences in D. pulex . © 2017 The Authors.

A comparison of models of the isometric force of locust skeletal muscle in response to pulse train inputs.

PubMed

Wilson, Emma; Rustighi, Emiliano; Newland, Philip L; Mace, Brian R

2012-03-01

Muscle models are an important tool in the development of new rehabilitation and diagnostic techniques. Many models have been proposed in the past, but little work has been done on comparing the performance of models. In this paper, seven models that describe the isometric force response to pulse train inputs are investigated. Five of the models are from the literature while two new models are also presented. Models are compared in terms of their ability to fit to isometric force data, using Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria and by examining the ability of each model to describe the underlying behaviour in response to individual pulses. Experimental data were collected by stimulating the locust extensor tibia muscle and measuring the force generated at the tibia. Parameters in each model were estimated by minimising the error between the modelled and actual force response for a set of training data. A separate set of test data, which included physiological kick-type data, was used to assess the models. It was found that a linear model performed the worst whereas a new model was found to perform the best. The parameter sensitivity of this new model was investigated using a one-at-a-time approach, and it found that the force response is not particularly sensitive to changes in any parameter.

Response of the Water Level in a Well to Earth Tides and Atmospheric Loading Under Unconfined Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojstaczer, Stuart; Riley, Francis S.

1990-08-01

The response of the water level in a well to Earth tides and atmospheric loading under unconfined conditions can be explained if the water level is controlled by the aquifer response averaged over the saturated depth of the well. Because vertical averaging tends to diminish the influence of the water table, the response is qualitatively similar to the response of a well under partially confined conditions. When the influence of well bore storage can be ignored, the response to Earth tides is strongly governed by a dimensionless aquifer frequency Q'u. The response to atmospheric loading is strongly governed by two dimensionless vertical fluid flow parameters: a dimensionless unsaturated zone frequency, R, and a dimensionless aquifer frequency Qu. The differences between Q'u and Qu are generally small for aquifers which are highly sensitive to Earth tides. When Q'u and Qu are large, the response of the well to Earth tides and atmospheric loading approaches the static response of the aquifer under confined conditions. At small values of Q'u and Qu, well response to Earth tides and atmospheric loading is strongly influenced by water table drainage. When R is large relative to Qu, the response to atmospheric loading is strongly influenced by attenuation and phase shift of the pneumatic pressure signal in the unsaturated zone. The presence of partial penetration retards phase advance in well response to Earth tides and atmospheric loading. When the theoretical response of a phreatic well to Earth tides and atmospheric loading is fit to the well response inferred from cross-spectral estimation, it is possible to obtain estimates of the pneumatic diffusivity of the unsaturated zone and the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer.

Acute toxicity prediction to threatened and endangered ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA’s Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models that can extrapolate species sensitivity to listed taxa using least-squares regressions of the sensitivity of a surrogate species and a predicted taxon (species, genus, or family). Web-ICE was expanded with new models that can predict toxicity to over 250 listed species. A case study was used to assess protectiveness of genus and family model estimates derived from either geometric mean or minimum taxa toxicity values for listed species. Models developed from the most sensitive value for each chemical were generally protective of the most sensitive species within predicted taxa, including listed species, and were more protective than geometric means models. ICE model estimates were compared to HC5 values derived from Species Sensitivity Distributions for the case study chemicals to assess protectiveness of the two approaches. ICE models provide robust toxicity predictions and can generate protective toxicity estimates for assessing contaminant risk to listed species. Reporting on the development and optimization of ICE models for listed species toxicity estimation

Acute Toxicity Prediction to Threatened and Endangered Species Using Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) Models.

PubMed

Willming, Morgan M; Lilavois, Crystal R; Barron, Mace G; Raimondo, Sandy

2016-10-04

Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA's Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models that can extrapolate species sensitivity to listed taxa using least-squares regressions of the sensitivity of a surrogate species and a predicted taxon (species, genus, or family). Web-ICE was expanded with new models that can predict toxicity to over 250 listed species. A case study was used to assess protectiveness of genus and family model estimates derived from either geometric mean or minimum taxa toxicity values for listed species. Models developed from the most sensitive value for each chemical were generally protective of the most sensitive species within predicted taxa, including listed species, and were more protective than geometric means models. ICE model estimates were compared to HC5 values derived from Species Sensitivity Distributions for the case study chemicals to assess protectiveness of the two approaches. ICE models provide robust toxicity predictions and can generate protective toxicity estimates for assessing contaminant risk to listed species.

Repeatability and validity of a field kit for estimation of cholinesterase in whole blood.

PubMed Central

London, L; Thompson, M L; Sacks, S; Fuller, B; Bachmann, O M; Myers, J E

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To evaluate a spectrophotometric field kit (Test-Mate-OP) for repeatability and validity in comparison with reference laboratory methods and to model its anticipated sensitivity and specificity based on these findings. METHODS--76 farm workers between the age of 20 and 55, of whom 30 were pesticide applicators exposed to a range of organophosphates in the preceding 10 days, had blood taken for plasma cholinesterase (PCE) and erythrocyte cholinesterase (ECE) measurement by field kit or laboratory methods. Paired blinded duplicate samples were taken from subgroups in the sample to assess repeatability of laboratory and field kit methods. Field kits were also used to test venous blood in one subgroup. The variance obtained for the field kit tests was then applied to two hypothetical scenarios that used published action guidelines to model the kit's sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS--Repeatability for PCE was much poorer and for ECE slightly poorer than that of laboratory measures. A substantial upward bias for field kit ECE relative to laboratory measurements was found. Sensitivity of the kit to a 40% drop in PCE was 67%, whereas that for ECE was 89%. Specificity of the kit with no change in mean of the population was 100% for ECE and 91% for PCE. CONCLUSION--Field kit ECE estimation seems to be sufficiently repeatable for surveillance activities, whereas PCE does not. Repeatability of both tests seems to be too low for use in epidemiological dose-response investigations. Further research is indicated to characterise the upward bias in ECE estimation on the kit. PMID:7697143

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

PubMed

Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

2015-01-01

Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

Multifrequency remote sensing of soil moisture. [Guymon, Oklahoma and Dalhart, Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theis, S. W.; Mcfarland, M. J.; Rosenthal, W. D.; Jones, C. L. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Multifrequency sensor data collected at Guymon, Oklahoma and Dalhart, Texas using NASA's C-130 aircraft were used to determine which of the all-weather microwave sensors demonstrated the highest correlation to surface soil moisture over optimal bare soil conditions, and to develop and test techniques which use visible/infrared sensors to compensate for the vegetation effect in this sensor's response to soil moisture. The L-band passive microwave radiometer was found to be the most suitable single sensor system to estimate soil moisture over bare fields. In comparison to other active and passive microwave sensors the L-band radiometer (1) was influenced least by ranges in surface roughness; (2) demonstrated the most sensitivity to soil moisture differences in terms of the range of return from the full range of soil moisture; and (3) was less sensitive to errors in measurement in relation to the range of sensor response. L-band emissivity related more strongly to soil moisture when moisture was expressed as percent of field capacity. The perpendicular vegetation index as determined from the visible/infrared sensors was useful as a measure of the vegetation effect on the L-band radiometer response to soil moisture.

Entanglement-Assisted Weak Value Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Shengshi; Dressel, Justin; Brun, Todd A.

2014-07-01

Large weak values have been used to amplify the sensitivity of a linear response signal for detecting changes in a small parameter, which has also enabled a simple method for precise parameter estimation. However, producing a large weak value requires a low postselection probability for an ancilla degree of freedom, which limits the utility of the technique. We propose an improvement to this method that uses entanglement to increase the efficiency. We show that by entangling and postselecting n ancillas, the postselection probability can be increased by a factor of n while keeping the weak value fixed (compared to n uncorrelated attempts with one ancilla), which is the optimal scaling with n that is expected from quantum metrology. Furthermore, we show the surprising result that the quantum Fisher information about the detected parameter can be almost entirely preserved in the postselected state, which allows the sensitive estimation to approximately saturate the relevant quantum Cramér-Rao bound. To illustrate this protocol we provide simple quantum circuits that can be implemented using current experimental realizations of three entangled qubits.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Human umbilical vein: involvement of cyclooxygenase-2 pathway in bradykinin B1 receptor-sensitized responses.

PubMed

Errasti, A E; Rey-Ares, V; Daray, F M; Rogines-Velo, M P; Sardi, S P; Paz, C; Podestá, E J; Rothlin, R P

2001-08-01

In isolated human umbilical vein (HUV), the contractile response to des-Arg9-bradykinin (des-Arg9-BK), selective BK B1 receptor agonist, increases as a function of the incubation time. Here, we evaluated whether cyclooxygenase (COX) pathway is involved in BK B1-sensitized response obtained in 5-h incubated HUV rings. The effect of different concentrations of indomethacin, sodium salicylate, ibuprofen, meloxicam, lysine clonixinate or NS-398 administrated 30 min before concentration-response curves (CRC) was studied. All treatments produced a significant rightward shift of the CRC to des-Arg9-BK in a concentration-dependent manner, which provides pharmacological evidence that COX pathway is involved in the BK B1 responses. Moreover, in this tissue, the NS-398 pKb (5.2) observed suggests that COX-2 pathway is the most relevant. The strong correlation between published pIC50 for COX-2 and the NSAIDs' pKbs estimated further supports the hypothesis that COX-2 metabolites are involved in BK B1 receptor-mediated responses. In other rings, indomethacin (30, 100 micromol/l) or NS-398 (10, 30 micromol/l) produced a significant rightward shift of the CRC to BK, selective BK B2 agonist, and its pKbs were similar to the values to inhibit BK B1 receptor responses, suggesting that COX-2 pathway also is involved in BK B2 receptor responses. Western blot analysis shows that COX-1 and COX-2 isoenzymes are present before and after 5-h in vitro incubation and apparently COX-2 does not suffer additional induction.

Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jie; Sun, Fubao; Xu, Jijun; Chen, Yaning; Sang, Yan-Fang; Liu, Changming

2016-01-01

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) can lead to controversial results in assessing droughts responding to global warming. Here we assess recent changes in the droughts over China (1961-2013) using the PDSI with two different estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite (PDSI_th) and Penman-Monteith (PDSI_pm) approaches. We found that droughts have become more severe in the PDSI_th but slightly lessened in the PDSI_pm estimate. To quantify and interpret the different responses in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm, we designed numerical experiments and found that drying trend of the PDSI_th responding to the warming alone is 3.4 times higher than that of the PDSI_pm, and the latter was further compensated by decreases in wind speed and solar radiation causing the slightly wetting in the PDSI_pm. Interestingly, we found that interbasin difference in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm responses to the warming alone tends to be larger in warmer basins, exponentially depending on mean temperature.

Using GPS radio occultations to infer the water vapor feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergados, Panagiotis; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Ao, Chi O.; Fetzer, Eric J.

2016-11-01

The air refractive index at L-band frequencies depends on the air's water vapor content and density. Exploiting this relationship, we derive for the first time a theoretical model to infer the specific humidity response to surface temperature variations, dq/dTs, given knowledge of how the air refractive index and temperature vary with surface temperature. We validate this model by using 1.2-1.6 GHz Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPS RO) observations from 2007 to 2010 at 250 hPa, where the water vapor feedback on surface warming is strongest. The dq/dTs estimation from GPS RO observations shows excellent agreement with previously published results and the responses estimated by using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications data sets. Because of their high sensitivity to fractional changes in water vapor, current and future GPS RO observations show great promise in monitoring climate feedback and their trends.

Study of synthesis techniques for insensitive aircraft control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, C. A.; Pope, R. E.

1977-01-01

Insensitive flight control system design criteria was defined in terms of maximizing performance (handling qualities, RMS gust response, transient response, stability margins) over a defined parameter range. Wing load alleviation for the C-5A was chosen as a design problem. The C-5A model was a 79-state, two-control structure with uncertainties assumed to exist in dynamic pressure, structural damping and frequency, and the stability derivative, M sub w. Five new techniques (mismatch estimation, uncertainty weighting, finite dimensional inverse, maximum difficulty, dual Lyapunov) were developed. Six existing techniques (additive noise, minimax, multiplant, sensitivity vector augmentation, state dependent noise, residualization) and the mismatch estimation and uncertainty weighting techniques were synthesized and evaluated on the design example. Evaluation and comparison of these six techniques indicated that the minimax and the uncertainty weighting techniques were superior to the other six, and of these two, uncertainty weighting has lower computational requirements. Techniques based on the three remaining new concepts appear promising and are recommended for further research.

Acute effects of caffeine on several operant behaviors in rhesus monkeys.

PubMed

Buffalo, E A; Gillam, M P; Allen, R R; Paule, M G

1993-11-01

The acute effects of 1,3-trimethylxanthine (caffeine) were assessed using an operant test battery (OTB) of complex food-reinforced tasks that are thought to depend upon relatively specific brain functions, such as motivation to work for food (progressive ratio, PR), learning (incremental repeated acquisition, IRA), color and position discrimination (conditioned position responding, CPR), time estimation (temporal response differentiation, TRD), and short-term memory and attention (delayed matching-to-sample, DMTS). Endpoints included response rates (RR), accuracies (ACC), and percent task completed (PTC). Caffeine sulfate (0.175-20.0 mg/kg, IV), given 15 min pretesting, produced significant dose-dependent decreases in TRD percent task completed and accuracy at doses > or = 5.6 mg/kg. Caffeine produced no systematic effects on either DMTS or PR responding, but low doses tended to enhance performance in both IRA and CPR tasks. Thus, in monkeys, performance of an operant task designed to model time estimation is more sensitive to the disruptive effects of caffeine than is performance of the other tasks in the OTB.

A Role for MST Neurons in Heading Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Leland Scott; Perrone, J. A.; Wade, Charles E. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

A template model of human visual self-motion perception (Perrone, JOSA, 1992; Perrone & Stone, Vis. Res., in press), which uses neurophysiologically realistic "heading detectors", is consistent with numerous human psychophysical results (Warren & Hannon, Nature, 1988; Stone & Perrone, Neuro. Abstr., 1991) including the failure of humans to estimate their heading (direction of forward translation) accurately under certain visual conditions (Royden et al., Nature, 1992). We tested the model detectors with stimuli used by others in- single-unit studies. The detectors showed emergent properties similar to those of MST neurons: 1) Sensitivity to non-preferred flow. Each detector is tuned to a specific combination of flow components and its response is systematically reduced by the addition of nonpreferred flow (Orban et al., PNAS, 1992), and 2) Position invariance. The detectors maintain their apparent preference for particular flow components over large regions of their receptive fields (e.g. Duffy & Wurtz, J. Neurophys., 1991; Graziano et al., J. Neurosci., 1994). It has been argued that this latter property is incompatible with MST playing a role in heading perception. The model however demonstrates how neurons with the above response properties could still support accurate heading estimation within extrastriate cortical maps.

A Point Kinetics Model for Estimating Neutron Multiplication of Bare Uranium Metal in Tagged Neutron Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tweardy, Matthew C.; McConchie, Seth; Hayward, Jason P.

An extension of the point kinetics model is developed in this paper to describe the neutron multiplicity response of a bare uranium object under interrogation by an associated particle imaging deuterium-tritium (D-T) measurement system. This extended model is used to estimate the total neutron multiplication of the uranium. Both MCNPX-PoliMi simulations and data from active interrogation measurements of highly enriched and depleted uranium geometries are used to evaluate the potential of this method and to identify the sources of systematic error. The detection efficiency correction for measured coincidence response is identified as a large source of systematic error. If themore » detection process is not considered, results suggest that the method can estimate total multiplication to within 13% of the simulated value. Values for multiplicity constants in the point kinetics equations are sensitive to enrichment due to (n, xn) interactions by D-T neutrons and can introduce another significant source of systematic bias. This can theoretically be corrected if isotopic composition is known a priori. Finally, the spatial dependence of multiplication is also suspected of introducing further systematic bias for high multiplication uranium objects.« less

A Point Kinetics Model for Estimating Neutron Multiplication of Bare Uranium Metal in Tagged Neutron Measurements

DOE PAGES

Tweardy, Matthew C.; McConchie, Seth; Hayward, Jason P.

2017-06-13

An extension of the point kinetics model is developed in this paper to describe the neutron multiplicity response of a bare uranium object under interrogation by an associated particle imaging deuterium-tritium (D-T) measurement system. This extended model is used to estimate the total neutron multiplication of the uranium. Both MCNPX-PoliMi simulations and data from active interrogation measurements of highly enriched and depleted uranium geometries are used to evaluate the potential of this method and to identify the sources of systematic error. The detection efficiency correction for measured coincidence response is identified as a large source of systematic error. If themore » detection process is not considered, results suggest that the method can estimate total multiplication to within 13% of the simulated value. Values for multiplicity constants in the point kinetics equations are sensitive to enrichment due to (n, xn) interactions by D-T neutrons and can introduce another significant source of systematic bias. This can theoretically be corrected if isotopic composition is known a priori. Finally, the spatial dependence of multiplication is also suspected of introducing further systematic bias for high multiplication uranium objects.« less

New Sensitive Serum Melatonin Radioimmunoassay Employing the Kennaway G280 Antibody: Syrian Hamster Morning Adrenergic Response,

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

NE- induced aMT secretion into 1111 their pineals in vitro, either to the transmitter the medium was markedly diminished in pineals taken S...al., 1988; Bieck et al., 1988; Khoory and effect of exercise ) but without assessing whether the Stemme, 1988; Tortosa et al., 1989; Soudtre et al...above twice aMT surge) or injected ISO ( inducing a secondary the conservative estimate of the ALD. surge at night after acute inhibition by light) re

AN OVERVIEW OF THE UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION (UA/SA/PE) API AND HOW TO IMPLEMENT IT

EPA Science Inventory

The Application Programming Interface (API) for Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, and
Parameter Estimation (UA/SA/PE API) (also known as Calibration, Optimization and Sensitivity and Uncertainty (CUSO)) was developed in a joint effort between several members of both ...

Memory color assisted illuminant estimation through pixel clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Heng; Quan, Shuxue

2010-01-01

The under constrained nature of illuminant estimation determines that in order to resolve the problem, certain assumptions are needed, such as the gray world theory. Including more constraints in this process may help explore the useful information in an image and improve the accuracy of the estimated illuminant, providing that the constraints hold. Based on the observation that most personal images have contents of one or more of the following categories: neutral objects, human beings, sky, and plants, we propose a method for illuminant estimation through the clustering of pixels of gray and three dominant memory colors: skin tone, sky blue, and foliage green. Analysis shows that samples of the above colors cluster around small areas under different illuminants and their characteristics can be used to effectively detect pixels falling into each of the categories. The algorithm requires the knowledge of the spectral sensitivity response of the camera, and a spectral database consisted of the CIE standard illuminants and reflectance or radiance database of samples of the above colors.

Estimation of the sensitive volume for gravitational-wave source populations using weighted Monte Carlo integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Vaibhav

2018-07-01

The population analysis and estimation of merger rates of compact binaries is one of the important topics in gravitational wave astronomy. The primary ingredient in these analyses is the population-averaged sensitive volume. Typically, sensitive volume, of a given search to a given simulated source population, is estimated by drawing signals from the population model and adding them to the detector data as injections. Subsequently injections, which are simulated gravitational waveforms, are searched for by the search pipelines and their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is determined. Sensitive volume is estimated, by using Monte-Carlo (MC) integration, from the total number of injections added to the data, the number of injections that cross a chosen threshold on SNR and the astrophysical volume in which the injections are placed. So far, only fixed population models have been used in the estimation of binary black holes (BBH) merger rates. However, as the scope of population analysis broaden in terms of the methodologies and source properties considered, due to an increase in the number of observed gravitational wave (GW) signals, the procedure will need to be repeated multiple times at a large computational cost. In this letter we address the problem by performing a weighted MC integration. We show how a single set of generic injections can be weighted to estimate the sensitive volume for multiple population models; thereby greatly reducing the computational cost. The weights in this MC integral are the ratios of the output probabilities, determined by the population model and standard cosmology, and the injection probability, determined by the distribution function of the generic injections. Unlike analytical/semi-analytical methods, which usually estimate sensitive volume using single detector sensitivity, the method is accurate within statistical errors, comes at no added cost and requires minimal computational resources.

A novel hypothesis on the sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test: Results of a joint analysis of 3 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Boer, Rob; Zauber, Ann; Habbema, J Dik F

2009-06-01

Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

Are self-report of disability pension and long-term sickness absence accurate? Comparisons of self-reported interview data with national register data in a Swedish twin cohort

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Self-reported disability pension (DP) and sickness absence are commonly used in epidemiological and other studies as a measure of exposure or even as an outcome. The aims were (1) to compare such self-reports with national register information in order to evaluate the validity of self-reported DP and sickness absence, and (2) to estimate the concordance of reporting behaviour in different twin zygosity groups, also by sex. Methods All Swedish twins born 1933-1958 who participated in the Screening Across the Lifespan Twin study (SALT) 1998-2003, were included (31,122 individuals). The self-reported DP and long-term sickness absence (LTSA) at the time of interview was compared to the corresponding register information retrieved from the National Social Insurance Agency by calculating the proportions of agreements, kappa, sensitivity, specificity, concordance rates, and chi-square test, to evaluate construct validity. Results The proportions of overall agreement were 96% and specificity 99% for both DP and LTSA, while the sensitivity was 70% for DP and 45% for LTSA. Kappa estimates were 0.76 for DP, and 0.58 for LTSA. The proportions of positive agreement were 64% for DP and 42% for LTSA. No difference in response style was found between zygosity groups among complete twin pairs for DP and LTSA. Results were similar for women and men and across age. Kappa estimates for DP differed somewhat depending on years of education, 0.68 (college/university) vs. 0.77 (less than 13 years in school) but not for LTSA. Conclusions Self-reported DP data may be very useful in studies when register information is not available, however, register data is preferred especially for LTSA. The same degree of twin similarity was found for truthful self-report of DP and LTSA in both monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs. Thus, the response style was not influenced by genetic factors. One consequence of this would be that when estimating the relative importance of genetic and environmental effects from twin models, heritability estimates would not be biased. PMID:21159191

EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

2010-01-01

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

2011-01-01

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

The Functional Arm Scale for Throwers (FAST)-Part II: Reliability and Validity of an Upper Extremity Region-Specific and Population-Specific Patient-Reported Outcome Scale for Throwing Athletes.

PubMed

Huxel Bliven, Kellie C; Snyder Valier, Alison R; Bay, R Curtis; Sauers, Eric L

2017-04-01

The Functional Arm Scale for Throwers (FAST) is an upper extremity (UE) region-specific and population-specific patient-reported outcome (PRO) scale developed to measure health-related quality of life in throwers with UE injuries. Stages I and II, described in a companion paper, of FAST development produced a 22-item scale and a 9-item pitcher module. Stage III of scale development, establishing reliability and validity of the FAST, is reported herein. To describe stage III of scale development: reliability and validity of the FAST. Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Data from throwing athletes collected over 5 studies were pooled to assess reliability and validity of the FAST. Reliability was estimated using FAST scores from 162 throwing athletes who were injured (n = 23) and uninjured (n = 139). Concurrent validity was estimated using FAST scores and Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) and Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic (KJOC) scores from 106 healthy, uninjured throwing athletes. Known-groups validity was estimated using FAST scores from 557 throwing athletes who were injured (n = 142) and uninjured (n = 415). Reliability and validity were assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and measurement error was assessed using standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimum detectable change (MDC). Receiver operating characteristic curves and sensitivity/specificity values were estimated for known-groups validity. Data from a separate group (n = 18) of postsurgical and nonoperative/conservative rehabilitation patients were analyzed to report responsiveness of the FAST. The FAST total, subscales, and pitcher module scores demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability (ICC, 0.91-0.98). The SEM 95 and MDC 95 for the FAST total score were 3.8 and 10.5 points, respectively. The SEM 95 and MDC 95 for the pitcher module score were 5.7 and 15.7 points, respectively. The FAST scores showed acceptable correlation with DASH (ICC, 0.49-0.82) and KJOC (ICC, 0.62-0.81) scores. The FAST total score classified 85.1% of players into the correct injury group. For predicting UE injury status, a FAST total cutoff score of 10.0 out of 100.0 was 91% sensitive and 75% specific, and a pitcher module score of 10.0 out of 100.0 was 87% sensitive and 78% specific. The FAST total score demonstrated responsiveness on several indices between intake and discharge time points. The FAST is a reliable, valid, and responsive UE region-specific and population-specific PRO scale for measuring patient-reported health care outcomes in throwing athletes with injury.

The Functional Arm Scale for Throwers (FAST)—Part II: Reliability and Validity of an Upper Extremity Region-Specific and Population-Specific Patient-Reported Outcome Scale for Throwing Athletes

PubMed Central

Huxel Bliven, Kellie C.; Snyder Valier, Alison R.; Bay, R. Curtis; Sauers, Eric L.

2017-01-01

Background: The Functional Arm Scale for Throwers (FAST) is an upper extremity (UE) region-specific and population-specific patient-reported outcome (PRO) scale developed to measure health-related quality of life in throwers with UE injuries. Stages I and II, described in a companion paper, of FAST development produced a 22-item scale and a 9-item pitcher module. Stage III of scale development, establishing reliability and validity of the FAST, is reported herein. Purpose: To describe stage III of scale development: reliability and validity of the FAST. Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Data from throwing athletes collected over 5 studies were pooled to assess reliability and validity of the FAST. Reliability was estimated using FAST scores from 162 throwing athletes who were injured (n = 23) and uninjured (n = 139). Concurrent validity was estimated using FAST scores and Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) and Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic (KJOC) scores from 106 healthy, uninjured throwing athletes. Known-groups validity was estimated using FAST scores from 557 throwing athletes who were injured (n = 142) and uninjured (n = 415). Reliability and validity were assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and measurement error was assessed using standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimum detectable change (MDC). Receiver operating characteristic curves and sensitivity/specificity values were estimated for known-groups validity. Data from a separate group (n = 18) of postsurgical and nonoperative/conservative rehabilitation patients were analyzed to report responsiveness of the FAST. Results: The FAST total, subscales, and pitcher module scores demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability (ICC, 0.91-0.98). The SEM95 and MDC95 for the FAST total score were 3.8 and 10.5 points, respectively. The SEM95 and MDC95 for the pitcher module score were 5.7 and 15.7 points, respectively. The FAST scores showed acceptable correlation with DASH (ICC, 0.49-0.82) and KJOC (ICC, 0.62-0.81) scores. The FAST total score classified 85.1% of players into the correct injury group. For predicting UE injury status, a FAST total cutoff score of 10.0 out of 100.0 was 91% sensitive and 75% specific, and a pitcher module score of 10.0 out of 100.0 was 87% sensitive and 78% specific. The FAST total score demonstrated responsiveness on several indices between intake and discharge time points. Conclusion: The FAST is a reliable, valid, and responsive UE region-specific and population-specific PRO scale for measuring patient-reported health care outcomes in throwing athletes with injury. PMID:28451614

Stochastic Matching and the Voluntary Nature of Choice

PubMed Central

Neuringer, Allen; Jensen, Greg; Piff, Paul

2007-01-01

Attempts to characterize voluntary behavior have been ongoing for thousands of years. We provide experimental evidence that judgments of volition are based upon distributions of responses in relation to obtained rewards. Participants watched as responses, said to be made by “actors,” appeared on a computer screen. The participant's task was to estimate how well each actor represented the voluntary choices emitted by a real person. In actuality, all actors' responses were generated by algorithms based on Baum's (1979) generalized matching function. We systematically varied the exponent values (sensitivity parameter) of these algorithms: some actors matched response proportions to received reinforcer proportions, others overmatched (predominantly chose the highest-valued alternative), and yet others undermatched (chose relatively equally among the alternatives). In each of five experiments, we found that the matching actor's responses were judged most closely to approximate voluntary choice. We found also that judgments of high volition depended upon stochastic (or probabilistic) generation. Thus, stochastic responses that match reinforcer proportions best represent voluntary human choice. PMID:17725049

The effects of reduced gluten barley diet on humoral and cell-mediated systemic immune responses of gluten-sensitive rhesus macaques.

PubMed

Sestak, Karol; Thwin, Hazel; Dufour, Jason; Aye, Pyone P; Liu, David X; Moehs, Charles P

2015-03-06

Celiac disease (CD) affects approximately 1% of the general population while an estimated additional 6% suffers from a recently characterized, rapidly emerging, similar disease, referred to as non-celiac gluten sensitivity (NCGS). The only effective treatment of CD and NCGS requires removal of gluten sources from the diet. Since required adherence to a gluten-free diet (GFD) is difficult to accomplish, efforts to develop alternative treatments have been intensifying in recent years. In this study, the non-human primate model of CD/NCGS, e.g., gluten-sensitive rhesus macaque, was utilized with the objective to evaluate the treatment potential of reduced gluten cereals using a reduced gluten (RG; 1% of normal gluten) barley mutant as a model. Conventional and RG barleys were used for the formulation of experimental chows and fed to gluten-sensitive (GS) and control macaques to determine if RG barley causes a remission of dietary gluten-induced clinical and immune responses in GS macaques. The impacts of the RG barley diet were compared with the impacts of the conventional barley-containing chow and the GFD. Although remission of the anti-gliadin antibody (AGA) serum responses and an improvement of clinical diarrhea were noted after switching the conventional to the RG barley diet, production of inflammatory cytokines, e.g., interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin-8 (IL-8) by peripheral CD4+ T helper lymphocytes, persisted during the RG chow treatment and were partially abolished only upon re-administration of the GFD. It was concluded that the RG barley diet might be used for the partial improvement of gluten-induced disease but its therapeutic value still requires upgrading-by co-administration of additional treatments.

The Effects of Reduced Gluten Barley Diet on Humoral and Cell-Mediated Systemic Immune Responses of Gluten-Sensitive Rhesus Macaques

PubMed Central

Sestak, Karol; Thwin, Hazel; Dufour, Jason; Aye, Pyone P.; Liu, David X.; Moehs, Charles P.

2015-01-01

Celiac disease (CD) affects approximately 1% of the general population while an estimated additional 6% suffers from a recently characterized, rapidly emerging, similar disease, referred to as non-celiac gluten sensitivity (NCGS). The only effective treatment of CD and NCGS requires removal of gluten sources from the diet. Since required adherence to a gluten-free diet (GFD) is difficult to accomplish, efforts to develop alternative treatments have been intensifying in recent years. In this study, the non-human primate model of CD/NCGS, e.g., gluten-sensitive rhesus macaque, was utilized with the objective to evaluate the treatment potential of reduced gluten cereals using a reduced gluten (RG; 1% of normal gluten) barley mutant as a model. Conventional and RG barleys were used for the formulation of experimental chows and fed to gluten-sensitive (GS) and control macaques to determine if RG barley causes a remission of dietary gluten-induced clinical and immune responses in GS macaques. The impacts of the RG barley diet were compared with the impacts of the conventional barley-containing chow and the GFD. Although remission of the anti-gliadin antibody (AGA) serum responses and an improvement of clinical diarrhea were noted after switching the conventional to the RG barley diet, production of inflammatory cytokines, e.g., interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin-8 (IL-8) by peripheral CD4+ T helper lymphocytes, persisted during the RG chow treatment and were partially abolished only upon re-administration of the GFD. It was concluded that the RG barley diet might be used for the partial improvement of gluten-induced disease but its therapeutic value still requires upgrading—by co-administration of additional treatments. PMID:25756783

Paucity of attractors in nonlinear systems driven with complex signals.

PubMed

Pethel, Shawn D; Blakely, Jonathan N

2011-04-01

We study the probability of multistability in a quadratic map driven repeatedly by a random signal of length N, where N is taken as a measure of the signal complexity. We first establish analytically that the number of coexisting attractors is bounded above by N. We then numerically estimate the probability p of a randomly chosen signal resulting in a multistable response as a function of N. Interestingly, with increasing drive signal complexity the system exhibits a paucity of attractors. That is, almost any drive signal beyond a certain complexity level will result in a single attractor response (p=0). This mechanism may play a role in allowing sensitive multistable systems to respond consistently to external influences.

Application of artificial neural network to predict clay sensitivity in a high landslide prone area using CPTu data- A case study in Southwest of Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahri, Abbas; Mousavinaseri, Mahsasadat; Naderi, Shima; Espersson, Maria

2015-04-01

Application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in many areas of engineering, in particular to geotechnical engineering problems such as site characterization has demonstrated some degree of success. The present paper aims to evaluate the feasibility of several various types of ANN models to predict the clay sensitivity of soft clays form piezocone penetration test data (CPTu). To get the aim, a research database of CPTu data of 70 test points around the Göta River near the Lilli Edet in the southwest of Sweden which is a high prone land slide area were collected and considered as input for ANNs. For training algorithms the quick propagation, conjugate gradient descent, quasi-Newton, limited memory quasi-Newton and Levenberg-Marquardt were developed tested and trained using the CPTu data to provide a comparison between the results of field investigation and ANN models to estimate the clay sensitivity. The reason of using the clay sensitivity parameter in this study is due to its relation to landslides in Sweden.A special high sensitive clay namely quick clay is considered as the main responsible for experienced landslides in Sweden which has high sensitivity and prone to slide. The training and testing program was started with 3-2-1 ANN architecture structure. By testing and trying several various architecture structures and changing the hidden layer in order to have a higher output resolution the 3-4-4-3-1 architecture structure for ANN in this study was confirmed. The tested algorithm showed that increasing the hidden layers up to 4 layers in ANN can improve the results and the 3-4-4-3-1 architecture structure ANNs for prediction of clay sensitivity represent reliable and reasonable response. The obtained results showed that the conjugate gradient descent algorithm with R2=0.897 has the best performance among the tested algorithms. Keywords: clay sensitivity, landslide, Artificial Neural Network

Value of parents' estimates of children's developmental ages.

PubMed

Glascoe, F P; Sandler, H

1995-11-01

To determine whether parents' estimates of children's developmental ages can function as a prescreening technique. Parents of 234 children from birth to 77 months of age seeking well-child care in pediatric offices were queried in two separate studies. In the first study, parents were asked to give an estimate of their child's overall developmental age and, in the second study, to estimate ages in each of six developmental domains. Children were administered a range of screening measures of intelligence, speech-language, and adoptive behavior. The overall age-estimate, if less than chronologic age, was 75% sensitive to likely developmental problems and, if equal to or greater than chronologic age, was 90% specific in identifying children likely to have typical development. Age estimates for each developmental domain were 81% sensitive to likely developmental problems if less than chronologic age in the domains of fine motor, language, grass motor, or behavior, and 62% specific if equal to or greater than chronologic age. Estimates at or below chronologic age in receptive language or personal-social domains were 90% sensitive and 43% specific in identifying likely behavior problems. There were no differences in the accuracy of parents estimates on the basis of children's age, gender, race, parents' level of education, or parenting experience. Parents' overall age-estimates provided a sensitive and specific indicator of global developmental status, but insufficient information about strengths and weaknesses to enable focused referrals for services. In contrast, discrete patterns of age estimates in each developmental domain sensitively discriminated children with developmental versus behavioral problems, although specificity was limited. Age estimates appear to be a potentially helpful method for identifying a subset of children in need of thorough screening, although further research is needed on a larger sample given diagnostic rather than screening tests.

Modeling U-shaped dose-response curves for manganese using categorical regression.

PubMed

Milton, Brittany; Krewski, Daniel; Mattison, Donald R; Karyakina, Nataliya A; Ramoju, Siva; Shilnikova, Natalia; Birkett, Nicholas; Farrell, Patrick J; McGough, Doreen

2017-01-01

Manganese is an essential nutrient which can cause adverse effects if ingested to excess or in insufficient amounts, leading to a U-shaped exposure-response relationship. Methods have recently been developed to describe such relationships by simultaneously modeling the exposure-response curves for excess and deficiency. These methods incorporate information from studies with diverse adverse health outcomes within the same analysis by assigning severity scores to achieve a common response metric for exposure-response modeling. We aimed to provide an estimate of the optimal dietary intake of manganese to balance adverse effects from deficient or excess intake. We undertook a systematic review of the literature from 1930 to 2013 and extracted information on adverse effects from manganese deficiency and excess to create a database on manganese toxicity following oral exposure. Although data were available for seven different species, only the data from rats was sufficiently comprehensive to support analytical modelling. The toxicological outcomes were standardized on an 18-point severity scale, allowing for a common analysis of all available toxicological data. Logistic regression modelling was used to simultaneously estimate the exposure-response profile for dietary deficiency and excess for manganese and generate a U-shaped exposure-response curve for all outcomes. Data were available on the adverse effects of 6113 rats. The nadir of the U-shaped joint response curve occurred at a manganese intake of 2.70mg/kgbw/day with a 95% confidence interval of 2.51-3.02. The extremes of both deficient and excess intake were associated with a 90% probability of some measurable adverse event. The manganese database supports estimation of optimal intake based on combining information on adverse effects from systematic review of published experiments. There is a need for more studies on humans. Translation of our results from rats to humans will require adjustment for interspecies differences in sensitivity to manganese. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A randomized trial of mailed questionnaires versus telephone interviews: Response patterns in a survey

PubMed Central

Feveile, Helene; Olsen, Ole; Hogh, Annie

2007-01-01

Background Data for health surveys are often collected using either mailed questionnaires, telephone interviews or a combination. Mode of data collection can affect the propensity to refuse to respond and result in different patterns of responses. The objective of this paper is to examine and quantify effects of mode of data collection in health surveys. Methods A stratified sample of 4,000 adults residing in Denmark was randomised to mailed questionnaires or computer-assisted telephone interviews. 45 health-related items were analyzed; four concerning behaviour and 41 concerning self assessment. Odds ratios for more positive answers and more frequent use of extreme response categories (both positive and negative) among telephone respondents compared to questionnaire respondents were estimated. Tests were Bonferroni corrected. Results For the four health behaviour items there were no significant differences in the response patterns. For 32 of the 41 health self assessment items the response pattern was statistically significantly different and extreme response categories were used more frequently among telephone respondents (Median estimated odds ratio: 1.67). For a majority of these mode sensitive items (26/32), a more positive reporting was observed among telephone respondents (Median estimated odds ratio: 1.73). The overall response rate was similar among persons randomly assigned to questionnaires (58.1%) and to telephone interviews (56.2%). A differential nonresponse bias for age and gender was observed. The rate of missing responses was higher for questionnaires (0.73 – 6.00%) than for telephone interviews (0 – 0.51%). The "don't know" option was used more often by mail respondents (10 – 24%) than by telephone respondents (2 – 4%). Conclusion The mode of data collection affects the reporting of self assessed health items substantially. In epidemiological studies, the method effect may be as large as the effects under investigation. Caution is needed when comparing prevalences across surveys or when studying time trends. PMID:17592653

A Consistent Definition of Phase Resetting Using Hilbert Transform.

PubMed

Oprisan, Sorinel A

2017-01-01

A phase resetting curve (PRC) measures the transient change in the phase of a neural oscillator subject to an external perturbation. The PRC encapsulates the dynamical response of a neural oscillator and, as a result, it is often used for predicting phase-locked modes in neural networks. While phase is a fundamental concept, it has multiple definitions that may lead to contradictory results. We used the Hilbert Transform (HT) to define the phase of the membrane potential oscillations and HT amplitude to estimate the PRC of a single neural oscillator. We found that HT's amplitude and its corresponding instantaneous frequency are very sensitive to membrane potential perturbations. We also found that the phase shift of HT amplitude between the pre- and poststimulus cycles gives an accurate estimate of the PRC. Moreover, HT phase does not suffer from the shortcomings of voltage threshold or isochrone methods and, as a result, gives accurate and reliable estimations of phase resetting.

Measurement Error and Environmental Epidemiology: A Policy Perspective

PubMed Central

Edwards, Jessie K.; Keil, Alexander P.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review Measurement error threatens public health by producing bias in estimates of the population impact of environmental exposures. Quantitative methods to account for measurement bias can improve public health decision making. Recent findings We summarize traditional and emerging methods to improve inference under a standard perspective, in which the investigator estimates an exposure response function, and a policy perspective, in which the investigator directly estimates population impact of a proposed intervention. Summary Under a policy perspective, the analysis must be sensitive to errors in measurement of factors that modify the effect of exposure on outcome, must consider whether policies operate on the true or measured exposures, and may increasingly need to account for potentially dependent measurement error of two or more exposures affected by the same policy or intervention. Incorporating approaches to account for measurement error into such a policy perspective will increase the impact of environmental epidemiology. PMID:28138941

Radar targets reveal all to automated tester

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, R. E.

1985-09-01

Technological developments in the field of automated test equipment for low radar-cross-section (RCS) systems are reviewed. Emphasis is given to an Automated Digital Analysis and Measurement (ADAM) system for measuring, scattering, and evaluating RCS using a minicomputer in combination with a vector network analyzer and a positioner programmer. ADAM incorporates a stepped CW measurement technique to obtain RCS as a function of both range and frequency at a fixed aspect angle. The operating characteristics and calibration procedures of the ADAM system are described and estimates of RCS sensitivity are obtained. The response resolution of the ADAM system is estimated to be 36 cm per measurement bandwidth (in GHz) for a minimum window. A block diagram of the error checking routine of the ADAM system is provided.

Estimating sub-surface dispersed oil concentration using acoustic backscatter response.

PubMed

Fuller, Christopher B; Bonner, James S; Islam, Mohammad S; Page, Cheryl; Ojo, Temitope; Kirkey, William

2013-05-15

The recent Deepwater Horizon disaster resulted in a dispersed oil plume at an approximate depth of 1000 m. Several methods were used to characterize this plume with respect to concentration and spatial extent including surface supported sampling and autonomous underwater vehicles with in situ instrument payloads. Additionally, echo sounders were used to track the plume location, demonstrating the potential for remote detection using acoustic backscatter (ABS). This study evaluated use of an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) to quantitatively detect oil-droplet suspensions from the ABS response in a controlled laboratory setting. Results from this study showed log-linear ABS responses to oil-droplet volume concentration. However, the inability to reproduce ABS response factors suggests the difficultly in developing meaningful calibration factors for quantitative field analysis. Evaluation of theoretical ABS intensity derived from the particle size distribution provided insight regarding method sensitivity in the presence of interfering ambient particles. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of add-on price estimate for select silicon wafering technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mokashi, A. R.

1982-01-01

The cost of producing wafers from silicon ingots is a major component of the add-on price of silicon sheet. Economic analyses of the add-on price estimates and their sensitivity internal-diameter (ID) sawing, multiblade slurry (MBS) sawing and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) are presented. Interim price estimation guidelines (IPEG) are used for estimating a process add-on price. Sensitivity analysis of price is performed with respect to cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials (blade life) and utilities, and the production parameters such as slicing rate, slices per centimeter and process yield, using a computer program specifically developed to do sensitivity analysis with IPEG. The results aid in identifying the important cost parameters and assist in deciding the direction of technology development efforts.

Satellite bulk tropospheric temperatures as a metric for climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christy, John R.; McNider, Richard T.

2017-11-01

We identify and remove the main natural perturbations (e.g. volcanic activity, ENSOs) from the global mean lower tropospheric temperatures ( T LT ) over January 1979 - June 2017 to estimate the underlying, potentially human-forced trend. The unaltered value is +0.155 K dec-1 while the adjusted trend is +0.096 K dec-1, related primarily to the removal of volcanic cooling in the early part of the record. This is essentially the same value we determined in 1994 (+0.09 K dec-1, Christy and McNider, 1994) using only 15 years of data. If the warming rate of +0.096 K dec-1 represents the net T LT response to increasing greenhouse radiative forcings, this implies that the T LT tropospheric transient climate response (Δ T LT at the time CO2 doubles) is +1.10 ± 0.26 K which is about half of the average of the IPCC AR5 climate models of 2.31 ± 0.20 K. Assuming that the net remaining unknown internal and external natural forcing over this period is near zero, the mismatch since 1979 between observations and CMIP-5 model values suggests that excessive sensitivity to enhanced radiative forcing in the models can be appreciable. The tropical region is mainly responsible for this discrepancy suggesting processes that are the likely sources of the extra sensitivity are (a) the parameterized hydrology of the deep atmosphere, (b) the parameterized heat-partitioning at the oceanatmosphere interface and/or (c) unknown natural variations.

Carbon dioxide addition to coral reef waters suppresses net community calcification.

PubMed

Albright, Rebecca; Takeshita, Yuichiro; Koweek, David A; Ninokawa, Aaron; Wolfe, Kennedy; Rivlin, Tanya; Nebuchina, Yana; Young, Jordan; Caldeira, Ken

2018-03-22

Coral reefs feed millions of people worldwide, provide coastal protection and generate billions of dollars annually in tourism revenue. The underlying architecture of a reef is a biogenic carbonate structure that accretes over many years of active biomineralization by calcifying organisms, including corals and algae. Ocean acidification poses a chronic threat to coral reefs by reducing the saturation state of the aragonite mineral of which coral skeletons are primarily composed, and lowering the concentration of carbonate ions required to maintain the carbonate reef. Reduced calcification, coupled with increased bioerosion and dissolution, may drive reefs into a state of net loss this century. Our ability to predict changes in ecosystem function and associated services ultimately hinges on our understanding of community- and ecosystem-scale responses. Past research has primarily focused on the responses of individual species rather than evaluating more complex, community-level responses. Here we use an in situ carbon dioxide enrichment experiment to quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to acidification. We present an estimate of community-scale calcification sensitivity to ocean acidification that is, to our knowledge, the first to be based on a controlled experiment in the natural environment. This estimate provides evidence that near-future reductions in the aragonite saturation state will compromise the ecosystem function of coral reefs.

Carbon dioxide addition to coral reef waters suppresses net community calcification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albright, Rebecca; Takeshita, Yuichiro; Koweek, David A.; Ninokawa, Aaron; Wolfe, Kennedy; Rivlin, Tanya; Nebuchina, Yana; Young, Jordan; Caldeira, Ken

2018-03-01

Coral reefs feed millions of people worldwide, provide coastal protection and generate billions of dollars annually in tourism revenue. The underlying architecture of a reef is a biogenic carbonate structure that accretes over many years of active biomineralization by calcifying organisms, including corals and algae. Ocean acidification poses a chronic threat to coral reefs by reducing the saturation state of the aragonite mineral of which coral skeletons are primarily composed, and lowering the concentration of carbonate ions required to maintain the carbonate reef. Reduced calcification, coupled with increased bioerosion and dissolution, may drive reefs into a state of net loss this century. Our ability to predict changes in ecosystem function and associated services ultimately hinges on our understanding of community- and ecosystem-scale responses. Past research has primarily focused on the responses of individual species rather than evaluating more complex, community-level responses. Here we use an in situ carbon dioxide enrichment experiment to quantify the net calcification response of a coral reef flat to acidification. We present an estimate of community-scale calcification sensitivity to ocean acidification that is, to our knowledge, the first to be based on a controlled experiment in the natural environment. This estimate provides evidence that near-future reductions in the aragonite saturation state will compromise the ecosystem function of coral reefs.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

2016-09-06

Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

2016-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

Random Decrement Method and Modeling H/V Spectral Ratios: An Application for Soft Shallow Layers Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, H.; Huerta-Lopez, C. I.; Martinez-Cruzado, J. A.; Rodriguez-Lozoya, H. E.; Espinoza-Barreras, F.

2009-05-01

Results of an ongoing study to estimate the ground response upon weak and moderate earthquake excitations are presented. A reliable site characterization in terms of its soil properties and sub-soil layer configuration are parameters required in order to do a trustworthy estimation of the ground response upon dynamic loads. This study can be described by the following four steps: (1) Ambient noise measurements were collected at the study site where a bridge was under construction between the cities of Tijuana and Ensenada in Mexico. The time series were collected using a six channels recorder with an ADC converter of 16 bits within a maximum voltage range of ± 2.5 V, the recorder has an optional settings of: Butterworth/Bessel filters, gain and sampling rate. The sensors were a three orthogonal component (X, Y, Z) accelerometers with a sensitivity of 20 V/g, flat frequency response between DC to 200 Hz, and total full range of ±0.25 of g, (2) experimental H/V Spectral Ratios were computed to estimate the fundamental vibration frequency at the site, (3) using the time domain experimental H/V spectral ratios as well as the original recorded time series, the random decrement method was applied to estimate the fundamental frequency and damping of the site (system), and (4) finally the theoretical H/V spectral ratios were obtained by means of the stiffness matrix wave propagation method.. The interpretation of the obtained results was then finally compared with a geotechnical study available at the site.

Soil moisture sensitivity of autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration in boreal xeric pine and mesic spruce forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ťupek, Boris; Launiainen, Samuli; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Heikkinen, Jukka; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2016-04-01

Litter decomposition rates of the most process based soil carbon models affected by environmental conditions are linked with soil heterotrophic CO2 emissions and serve for estimating soil carbon sequestration; thus due to the mass balance equation the variation in measured litter inputs and measured heterotrophic soil CO2 effluxes should indicate soil carbon stock changes, needed by soil carbon management for mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, if sensitivity functions of the applied model suit to the environmental conditions e.g. soil temperature and moisture. We evaluated the response forms of autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration to soil temperature and moisture in four boreal forest sites of the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) by a soil trenching experiment during year 2015 in southern Finland. As expected both autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration components were primarily controlled by soil temperature and exponential regression models generally explained more than 90% of the variance. Soil moisture regression models on average explained less than 10% of the variance and the response forms varied between Gaussian for the autotrophic forest floor respiration component and linear for the heterotrophic forest floor respiration component. Although the percentage of explained variance of soil heterotrophic respiration by the soil moisture was small, the observed reduction of CO2 emissions with higher moisture levels suggested that soil moisture response of soil carbon models not accounting for the reduction due to excessive moisture should be re-evaluated in order to estimate right levels of soil carbon stock changes. Our further study will include evaluation of process based soil carbon models by the annual heterotrophic respiration and soil carbon stocks.

RANDOMIZED TRIAL OF PEGYLATED LIPOSOMAL DOXORUBICIN (PLD) PLUS CARBOPLATIN VERSUS CARBOPLATIN IN PLATINUM-SENSITIVE (PS) PATIENTS WITH RECURRENT EPITHELIAL OVARIAN OR PERITONEAL CARCINOMA AFTER FAILURE OF INITIAL PLATINUM-BASED CHEMOTHERAPY (SOUTH WEST ONCOLOGY GROUP PROTOCOL S0200)

PubMed Central

Alberts, David S.; Liu, P. Y.; Wilczynski, Sharon P.; Clouser, Mary C.; Lopez, Ana Maria; Michelin, David P.; Lanzotti, Victor J.; Markman, Maurie

2008-01-01

Objective Because debate continues over the role of combination, platinum-based chemotherapy for platinum sensitive (PS), recurrent ovarian cancer (OC), we compared overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), confirmed complete response rate and time to treatment failure in this population. Methods Patients with recurrent stage III or IV OC, a progression-free and platinum-free interval of 6- 24 months after first-line platinum-based chemotherapy and up to 12 courses of a non-platinum containing consolidation treatment were eligible. Patients were randomized to IV pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) (30 mg/m2) plus IV carboplatin (AUC=5 mg/mL × min) once every 4 weeks (PLD arm) or IV carboplatin alone (AUC=5mg/mL × min) once every 4 weeks. Results The PLD arm enrolled 31 patients and the carboplatin alone arm 30 for a total of 61 patients out of 900 planned. Response rates were 67% for the PLD arm and 32% for the carboplatin only arm (Fisher’s exact p=0.02). The estimated median PFS was 12 and 8 months for PLD versus carboplatin alone. The estimated median OS on the PLD arm was 26 months and 18 months on the carboplatin only arm (p=0.02). Twenty-six percent of the patients on the PLD arm reported grade 4 toxicities, all hematological in nature. Conclusion This study was closed early because of slow patient accrual. The response rate, median PFS and OS results are intriguing. These data suggest that there may be an advantage to the PLD plus carboplatin combination treatment in patients with PS, recurrent OC. The regimen should be further tested. PMID:17949799

Environmental controls on sap flow in a northern hardwood forest.

PubMed

Bovard, B D; Curtis, P S; Vogel, C S; Su, H-B; Schmid, H P

2005-01-01

Our objective was to gain a detailed understanding of how photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), vapor pressure deficit (D) and soil water interact to control transpiration in the dominant canopy species of a mixed hardwood forest in northern Lower Michigan. An improved understanding of how these environmental factors affect whole-tree water use in unmanaged ecosystems is necessary in assessing the consequences of climate change on the terrestrial water cycle. We used continuously heated sap flow sensors to measure transpiration in mature trees of four species during two successive drought events. The measurements were scaled to the stand level for comparison with eddy covariance estimates of ecosystem water flux (Fw). Photosynthetically active radiation and D together explained 82% of the daytime hourly variation in plot-level transpiration, and low soil water content generally resulted in increased stomatal sensitivity to increasing D. There were also species-specific responses to drought. Quercus rubra L. showed low water use during both dry and wet conditions, and during periods of high D. Among the study species, Acer rubrum L. showed the greatest degree of stomatal closure in response to low soil water availability. Moderate increases in stomatal sensitivity to D during dry periods were observed in Populus grandidentata Michx. and Betula papyrifera Marsh. Sap flow scaled to the plot level and Fw demonstrated similar temporal patterns of water loss suggesting that the mechanisms controlling sap flow of an individual tree also control ecosystem evapotranspiration. However, the absolute magnitude of scaled sap flow estimates was consistently lower than Fw. We conclude that species-specific responses to PAR, D and soil water content are key elements to understanding current and future water fluxes in this ecosystem.

Theta oscillations are sensitive to both early and late conflict processing stages: effects of alcohol intoxication.

PubMed

Kovacevic, Sanja; Azma, Sheeva; Irimia, Andrei; Sherfey, Jason; Halgren, Eric; Marinkovic, Ksenija

2012-01-01

Prior neuroimaging evidence indicates that decision conflict activates medial and lateral prefrontal and parietal cortices. Theoretical accounts of cognitive control highlight anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) as a central node in this network. However, a better understanding of the relative primacy and functional contributions of these areas to decision conflict requires insight into the neural dynamics of successive processing stages including conflict detection, response selection and execution. Moderate alcohol intoxication impairs cognitive control as it interferes with the ability to inhibit dominant, prepotent responses when they are no longer correct. To examine the effects of moderate intoxication on successive processing stages during cognitive control, spatio-temporal changes in total event-related theta power were measured during Stroop-induced conflict. Healthy social drinkers served as their own controls by participating in both alcohol (0.6 g/kg ethanol for men, 0.55 g/kg women) and placebo conditions in a counterbalanced design. Anatomically-constrained magnetoencephalography (aMEG) approach was applied to complex power spectra for theta (4-7 Hz) frequencies. The principal generator of event-related theta power to conflict was estimated to ACC, with contributions from fronto-parietal areas. The ACC was uniquely sensitive to conflict during both early conflict detection, and later response selection and execution stages. Alcohol attenuated theta power to conflict across successive processing stages, suggesting that alcohol-induced deficits in cognitive control may result from theta suppression in the executive network. Slower RTs were associated with attenuated theta power estimated to ACC, indicating that alcohol impairs motor preparation and execution subserved by the ACC. In addition to their relevance for the currently prevailing accounts of cognitive control, our results suggest that alcohol-induced impairment of top-down strategic processing underlies poor self-control and inability to refrain from drinking.

An investigation of using an RQP based method to calculate parameter sensitivity derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

1989-01-01

Estimation of the sensitivity of problem functions with respect to problem variables forms the basis for many of our modern day algorithms for engineering optimization. The most common application of problem sensitivities has been in the calculation of objective function and constraint partial derivatives for determining search directions and optimality conditions. A second form of sensitivity analysis, parameter sensitivity, has also become an important topic in recent years. By parameter sensitivity, researchers refer to the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and current design point due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. Methods for calculating these derivatives have been proposed by several authors (Armacost and Fiacco 1974, Sobieski et al 1981, Schmit and Chang 1984, and Vanderplaats and Yoshida 1985). Two drawbacks to estimating parameter sensitivities by current methods have been: (1) the need for second order information about the Lagrangian at the current point, and (2) the estimates assume no change in the active set of constraints. The first of these two problems is addressed here and a new algorithm is proposed that does not require explicit calculation of second order information.

Evaluation of relative potencies for in vitro transactivation of the baikal seal aryl hydrocarbon receptor by dioxin-like compounds.

PubMed

Kim, Eun-Young; Suda, Tomoko; Tanabe, Shinsuke; Batoev, Valeriy B; Petrov, Evgeny A; Iwata, Hisato

2011-02-15

To evaluate the sensitivity and responses to dioxins and related compounds (DRCs) via aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) in Baikal seals (Pusa sibirica), we constructed an in vitro reporter gene assay system. Baikal seal AHR (BS AHR) expression plasmid and a reporter plasmid containing CYP1A1 promoter were transfected in COS-7 cells. The cells were treated with six representative congeners, and dose-dependent responses were obtained for all the congeners. EC50 values of 2,3,7,8-TCDD, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD, 2,3,7,8-TCDF, 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, and PCB126 were found to be 0.021, 1.8, 0.16, 2.4, and 2.5 nM, respectively. As the response did not reach the maximal plateau, EC50 value for PCB118 could not be obtained. The TCDD-EC50 for BS AHR was as high as that for dioxin sensitive C57BL/6 mouse AHR. The in vitro dose responses were further analyzed following an established systematic framework and multiple (20, 50, and 80%) relative potencies (REPs) to the maximum TCDD response. The estimates revealed lower REP ranges (20-80%) of PeCDD and PeCDF for BS AHR than for mouse AHR. Average of the 20, 50, and 80% REPs was designated as Baikal seal specific TCDD induction equivalency factor (BS IEF). The BS IEFs of PeCDD, TCDF, PeCDF, PCB126, and PCB118 were estimated as 0.010, 0.018, 0.0078, 0.0059, and 0.00010, respectively. Total TCDD induction equivalents (IEQs) that were calculated using BS IEFs and hepatic concentrations in wild Baikal seals corresponded to only 12-31% of 2005 WHO TEF-derived TEQs. Nevertheless, about 50% of Baikal seals accumulated IEQs over the TCDD-EC50 obtained in this study. This assessment was supported by the enhanced CYP1A1 mRNA expression found in 50% of the specimens contaminated over the TCDD-EC50. These findings suggest that the IEFs proposed from this in vitro assay could be used to predict AHR-mediated responses in wild seals.

Remote sensing sensitivity to fire severity and fire recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Key, C.H.

2005-01-01

The paper examines fundamental ways that geospatial data on fire severity and recovery are influenced by conditions of the remote sensing. Remote sensing sensitivities are spatial, temporal and radiometric in origin. Those discussed include spatial resolution, the sampling time of year, and time since fire. For standard reference, sensitivities are demonstrated with examples drawn from an archive of burn assessments based on one radiometric index, the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio. Resolution determines the aggregation of fire effects within a pixel (alpha variation), hence defining the detected ecological response, and controlling the ability to determine patchiness and spatial distribution of responses throughout a burn (beta variation). As resolution decreases, alpha variation increases, extracting beta variation from the complexity of the whole burn. Seasonal timing impacts the radiometric quality of data in terms of transmittance, sun angle, and potential for enhanced contrast between responses within burns. Remote sensing sensitivity can degrade during many fire seasons when snow, incomplete burning, hazy conditions, low sun angles, or extended drought are common. Time since fire (lag timing) most notably shapes severity detection through the first-order fire effects evident in survivorship and delayed mortality that emerge by the growth period after fire. The former effects appear overly severe at first, but diminish, as burned vegetation remains viable. Conversely, the latter signals vegetation that appears healthy at first, but is damaged by heat to the extent that it soon dies. Both responses can lead to either over- or under-estimating severity, respectively, depending on fire behavior and pre-fire composition unique to each burned area. Based on implications of such sensitivities, three sampling intervals for short-term burn severity are identified; rapid, initial, and extended assessment, sampled within ca. two weeks, two months, and depending on the ecotype, from three months to one year after fire, respectively. Jointly, remote sensing conditions and the way burns are studied yield different tendencies for data quality and information content that impact the objectives and hypotheses that can be studied. Such considerations can be commonly overlooked, but need to be incorporated especially in comparative studies, and to build long-term reference databases on fire severity and recovery.

Further comments on sensitivities, parameter estimation, and sampling design in one-dimensional analysis of solute transport in porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1988-01-01

Sensitivities of solute concentration to parameters associated with first-order chemical decay, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and multilayer transport are examined in one-dimensional analytical models of transient solute transport in porous media. A sensitivity is a change in solute concentration resulting from a change in a model parameter. Sensitivity analysis is important because minimum information required in regression on chemical data for the estimation of model parameters by regression is expressed in terms of sensitivities. Nonlinear regression models of solute transport were tested on sets of noiseless observations from known models that exceeded the minimum sensitivity information requirements. Results demonstrate that the regression models consistently converged to the correct parameters when the initial sets of parameter values substantially deviated from the correct parameters. On the basis of the sensitivity analysis, several statements may be made about design of sampling for parameter estimation for the models examined: (1) estimation of parameters associated with solute transport in the individual layers of a multilayer system is possible even when solute concentrations in the individual layers are mixed in an observation well; (2) when estimating parameters in a decaying upstream boundary condition, observations are best made late in the passage of the front near a time chosen by adding the inverse of an hypothesized value of the source decay parameter to the estimated mean travel time at a given downstream location; (3) estimation of a first-order chemical decay parameter requires observations to be made late in the passage of the front, preferably near a location corresponding to a travel time of √2 times the half-life of the solute; and (4) estimation of a parameter relating to spatial variability in an initial condition requires observations to be made early in time relative to passage of the solute front.

Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, A. R.; Hay, L. E.; McCabe, G. J.; Markstrom, S. L.; Atkinson, R. D.

2015-09-01

A parameter regionalization scheme to transfer parameter values and model uncertainty information from gaged to ungaged areas for a monthly water balance model (MWBM) was developed and tested for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, a global-sensitivity algorithm, was implemented on a MWBM to generate parameter sensitivities on a set of 109 951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. The HRUs were grouped into 110 calibration regions based on similar parameter sensitivities. Subsequently, measured runoff from 1575 streamgages within the calibration regions were used to calibrate the MWBM parameters to produce parameter sets for each calibration region. Measured and simulated runoff at the 1575 streamgages showed good correspondence for the majority of the CONUS, with a median computed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 0.76 over all streamgages. These methods maximize the use of available runoff information, resulting in a calibrated CONUS-wide application of the MWBM suitable for providing estimates of water availability at the HRU resolution for both gaged and ungaged areas of the CONUS.

Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

2017-11-01

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

Real-time dosimetry in radiotherapy using tailored optical fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, A. K. M. Mizanur; Zubair, H. T.; Begum, Mahfuza; Abdul-Rashid, H. A.; Yusoff, Z.; Omar, Nasr Y. M.; Ung, N. M.; Mat-Sharif, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.

2016-05-01

Real-time dosimetry plays an important role for accurate patient-dose measurement during radiotherapy. A tiny piece of laboratory fabricated Ge-doped optical fiber has been investigated as a radioluminescence (RL) sensor for real-time dosimetry over the dose range from 1 Gy to 8 Gy under 6 MV photon beam by LINAC. Fiber-coupled software-based RL prototype system was used to assess essential dosimetric characteristics including dose response linearity, dose rate dependency, sensitivity, repeatability and output dependence on field sizes. The consistency level of RL photon counts versus dose rate was also compared with that of standard Al2O3:C chips. Sensitivity of Ge-doped fiber were found to be sufficiently sensitive for practical use and also provided linear dose responses for various dose rates from 100 cGy/min to 600 cGy/min using both 6 MV photon and 6 MeV electron beams. SEM-EDX analysis was performed to identify Ge-dopant concentration level within the optical fiber RL material. Accumulated doses were also estimated using simple integral technique and the error was found to be around less than 1% under dissimilar dose rates or repeat measurements. The evaluation of the Ge-doped optical fiber based RL dosimeter system indicates its potential in medical dosimetry.

Mechanical energy estimation during walking: validity and sensitivity in typical gait and in children with cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Van de Walle, P; Hallemans, A; Schwartz, M; Truijen, S; Gosselink, R; Desloovere, K

2012-02-01

Gait efficiency in children with cerebral palsy is usually quantified by metabolic energy expenditure. Mechanical energy estimations, however, can be a valuable supplement as they can be assessed during gait analysis and plotted over the gait cycle, thus revealing information on timing and sources of increases in energy expenditure. Unfortunately, little information on validity and sensitivity exists. Three mechanical estimation approaches: (1) centre of mass (CoM) approach, (2) sum of segmental energies (SSE) approach and (3) integrated joint power approach, were validated against oxygen consumption and each other. Sensitivity was assessed in typical gait and in children with diplegia. CoM approach underestimated total energy expenditure and showed poor sensitivity. SSE approach overestimated energy expenditure and showed acceptable sensitivity. Validity and sensitivity were best in the integrated joint power approach. This method is therefore preferred for mechanical energy estimation in children with diplegia. However, mechanical energy should supplement, not replace metabolic energy, as total energy expended is not captured in any mechanical approach. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative transduction mechanisms of hair cells in the bullfrog utriculus. II. Sensitivity and response dynamics to hair bundle displacement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baird, R. A.

1994-01-01

1. Hair cells in whole-mount in vitro preparations of the utricular macula of the bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) were selected according to their macular location and hair bundle morphology. The sensitivity and response dynamics of selected hair cells to natural stimulation were examined by recording their voltage responses to step and sinusoidal hair bundle displacements applied to their longest stereocilia. 2. The voltage responses of 31 hair cells to sinusoidal hair bundle displacements were characterized by their gains and phases, taken with respect to peak hair bundle displacement. The gains of Type B and Type C cells at both 0.5 and 5.0 Hz were markedly lower than those of Type F and Type E cells. Phases, with the exception of Type C cells, lagged hair bundle displacement at 0.5 Hz. Type C cells had phase leads of 25-40 degrees. At 5.0 Hz, response phases in all cells were phase lagged with respect to those at 0.5 Hz. Type C cells had larger gains and smaller phase leads at 5.0 Hz than at 0.5 Hz, suggesting the presence of low-frequency adaptation. 3. Displacement-response curves, derived from the voltage responses to 5.0-Hz sinusoids, were sigmoidal in shape and asymmetrical, with the depolarizing response having a greater magnitude and saturating less abruptly than the hyperpolarizing response. When normalized to their largest displacement the linear ranges of these curves varied from < 0.5 to 1.25 microns and were largest in Type B and smallest in Type F and Type E cells. Sensitivity, defined as the slope of the normalized displacement-response curve, was inversely correlated with linear range. 4. The contribution of geometric factors associated with the hair bundle to linear range and sensitivity were predicted from realistic models of utricular hair bundles created using morphological data obtained from light and electron microscopy. Three factors, including 1) the inverse ratio of the lengths of the kinocilium and longest stereocilia, representing the lever arm between kinociliary and stereociliary displacement; 2) tip link extension/linear displacement, largely a function of stereociliary height and separation; and 3) stereociliary number, an estimate of the number of transduction channels, were considered in this analysis. The first of these factors was quantitatively more important than the latter two factors and their total contribution was largest in Type B and Type C cells. Theoretical models were also used to calculate the relation between rotary and linear displacement.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).

Diagnosing ozone stress and differential tolerance in rice (Oryza sativa L.) with ethylenediurea (EDU).

PubMed

Ashrafuzzaman, Md; Lubna, Farzana Afrose; Holtkamp, Felix; Manning, William J; Kraska, Thorsten; Frei, Michael

2017-11-01

Rising tropospheric ozone concentrations in Asia necessitate the breeding of adapted rice varieties to ensure food security. However, breeding requires field-based evaluation of ample plant material, which can be technically challenging or very costly when using ozone fumigation facilities. The chemical ethylenediurea (EDU) has been proposed for estimating the effects of ozone in large-scale field applications, but controlled experiments investigating constitutive effects on rice or its suitability to detect genotypic differences in ozone tolerance are missing. This study comprised a controlled open top chamber experiment with four treatments (i) control (average ozone concentration 16 ppb), (ii) control with EDU application, (iii) ozone stress (average 77 ppb for 7 h daily throughout the season), and (iv) ozone stress with EDU application. Three contrasting rice genotypes were tested, i.e. the tolerant line L81 and the sensitive Nipponbare and BR28. The ozone treatment had significant negative effects on plant growth (height and tillering), stomatal conductance, SPAD value, spectral reflectance indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), lipid peroxidation, as well as biomass and grain yields. These negative effects were more pronounced in the a priori sensitive varieties, especially the widely grown Bangladeshi variety BR28, which showed grain yield reductions by 37 percent. EDU application had almost no effects on plants in the absence of ozone, but partly mitigated ozone effects on foliar symptoms, lipid peroxidation, SPAD value, stomatal conductance, several spectral reflectance parameters, panicle number, grain yield, and spikelet sterility. EDU responses were more pronounced in sensitive genotypes than in the tolerant L81. In conclusion, EDU had no constitutive effects on rice and partly offset negative ozone effects, especially in sensitive varieties. It can thus be used to diagnose ozone damage in field grown rice and for distinguishing tolerant (less EDU-responsive) and sensitive (more EDU-responsive) genotypes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dark-Adapted Chromatic Perimetry for Measuring Rod Visual Fields in Patients with Retinitis Pigmentosa

PubMed Central

Bennett, Lea D.; Klein, Martin; Locke, Kirsten G.; Kiser, Kelly; Birch, David G.

2017-01-01

Purpose Although rod photoreceptors are initially affected in retinitis pigmentosa (RP), the full-field of rod vision is not routinely characterized due to the unavailability of commercial devices detecting rod sensitivity. The purpose of this study was to quantify rod-mediated vision in the peripheral field from patients with RP using a new commercially available perimeter. Methods Participants had one eye dilated and dark-adapted for 45 minutes. A dark-adapted chromatic (DAC) perimeter tested 80 loci 144° horizontally and 72° vertically with cyan stimuli. The number of rod-mediated loci (RML) were analyzed based on normal cone sensitivity (method 1) and associated with full-field electroretinography (ERG) responses by Pearson's r correlation and linear regression. In a second cohort of patients with RP, RML were identified by two-color perimetry (cyan and red; method 2). The two methods for ascribing rod function were compared by Bland-Altman analysis. Results Method 1 RML were correlated with responses to the 0.01 cd.s/m2 flash (P < 0.001), while total sensitivity to the cyan stimulus showed correlation with responses to the 3.0 cd.s/m2 flash (P < 0.0001). Method 2 detected a mean of 10 additional RML compared to method 1. Conclusions Scotopic fields measured with the DAC detected rod sensitivity across the full visual field, even in some patients who had nondetectable rod ERGs. Two-color perimetry is warranted when sensitivity to the cyan stimulus is reduced to ≤20 dB to get a true estimation of rod function. Translational Relevance Many genetic forms of retinitis pigmentosa (RP) are caused by mutations in rod-specific genes. However, treatment trials for patients with RP have relied primarily on photopic (cone-mediated) tests as outcome measures because there are a limited number of available testing methods designed to evaluate rod function. Thus, efficient methods for quantifying rod-mediated vision are needed for the rapidly increasing numbers of clinical trials. PMID:28798898

Self-estimation or phototest measurement of skin UV sensitivity and its association with people's attitudes towards sun exposure.

PubMed

Falk, Magnus

2014-02-01

Fitzpatrick's classification is the most common way of assessing skin UV sensitivity. The study aim was to investigate how self-estimated and actual UV sensitivity, as measured by phototest, are associated with attitudes towards sunbathing and the propensity to increase sun protection, as well as the correlation between self-estimated and actual UV sensitivity. A total of 166 primary healthcare patients filled-out a questionnaire investigating attitudes towards sunbathing and the propensity to increase sun protection. They reported their skin type according to Fitzpatrick, and a UV sensitivity phototest was performed. Self-rated low UV sensitivity (skin type III-VI) was associated with a more positive attitude towards sunbathing and a lower propensity to increase sun protection, compared to high UV sensitivity. The correlation between the two methods was weak. The findings might indicate that individuals with a perceived low but in reality high UV sensitivity do not seek adequate sun protection with regard to skin cancer risk. Furthermore, the poor correlation between self-reported and actual UV sensitivity, measured by phototest, makes the clinical use of Fitzpatrick's classification questionable.

Improved method for retinotopy constrained source estimation of visual evoked responses

PubMed Central

Hagler, Donald J.; Dale, Anders M.

2011-01-01

Retinotopy constrained source estimation (RCSE) is a method for non-invasively measuring the time courses of activation in early visual areas using magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). Unlike conventional equivalent current dipole or distributed source models, the use of multiple, retinotopically-mapped stimulus locations to simultaneously constrain the solutions allows for the estimation of independent waveforms for visual areas V1, V2, and V3, despite their close proximity to each other. We describe modifications that improve the reliability and efficiency of this method. First, we find that increasing the number and size of visual stimuli results in source estimates that are less susceptible to noise. Second, to create a more accurate forward solution, we have explicitly modeled the cortical point spread of individual visual stimuli. Dipoles are represented as extended patches on the cortical surface, which take into account the estimated receptive field size at each location in V1, V2, and V3 as well as the contributions from contralateral, ipsilateral, dorsal, and ventral portions of the visual areas. Third, we implemented a map fitting procedure to deform a template to match individual subject retinotopic maps derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This improves the efficiency of the overall method by allowing automated dipole selection, and it makes the results less sensitive to physiological noise in fMRI retinotopy data. Finally, the iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) method was used to reduce the contribution from stimulus locations with high residual error for robust estimation of visual evoked responses. PMID:22102418

Detecting Global Hydrological Cycle Intensification in Sea Surface Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poague, J.; Stine, A.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, but significant regional differences exist in the predicted response. The proposed zonal mean thermodynamic response is enhanced horizontal moisture transport associated with increased saturation vapor pressure, which in turn drives additional net precipitation in the tropics and at high latitudes and additional net evaporation in the subtropics. Sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies are forced from above by changes in evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) and thus will respond to changes in the global hydrological cycle, opening the possibility of using historical SSS anomalies to diagnose the response of the hydrological cycle to warming. We estimate zonal mean SSS trends in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins from 1955-2015 to test whether historical changes in the global hydrological cycle are consistent with a primarily thermodynamic response. Motivated by this observation, we calculate the sensitivity of basin zonal-mean SSS anomalies to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing as a function of timescale to diagnose and estimate the signal-to-noise ratio of the purely thermodynamic signal as a function of timescale. High-frequency variability in SSS anomalies is likely to be influenced by variability in atmospheric circulation, complicating the attribution of the link between basin zonal-mean SSS anomalies and global SST anomalies. We therefore estimate the basin zonal mean SSS anomaly response to the major modes of large-scale dynamic variability. We find a strong correlation between detrended zonal-mean SSS anomalies and the Pacific-North American index (R=0.71,P<0.01) in the Pacific Ocean. We interpret the relationship between zonal mean SSS anomalies and temperature in terms of the relative contribution of thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project:Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772 × 1012 gC yr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118 × 1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.; Borchers, J.; Chaney, J.; Fisher, H.; Fox, S.; Haxeltine, A.; Janetos, A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Kittel, T. G. F.; McGuire, A. D.; McKeown, R.; Neilson, R.; Nemani, R.; Ojima, D. S.; Painter, T.

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772×1012 gCyr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118×1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Using LiF:Mg,Cu,P TLDs to estimate the absorbed dose to water in liquid water around an 192Ir brachytherapy source.

PubMed

Lucas, P Avilés; Aubineau-Lanièce, I; Lourenço, V; Vermesse, D; Cutarella, D

2014-01-01

The absorbed dose to water is the fundamental reference quantity for brachytherapy treatment planning systems and thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) have been recognized as the most validated detectors for measurement of such a dosimetric descriptor. The detector response in a wide energy spectrum as that of an (192)Ir brachytherapy source as well as the specific measurement medium which surrounds the TLD need to be accounted for when estimating the absorbed dose. This paper develops a methodology based on highly sensitive LiF:Mg,Cu,P TLDs to directly estimate the absorbed dose to water in liquid water around a high dose rate (192)Ir brachytherapy source. Different experimental designs in liquid water and air were constructed to study the response of LiF:Mg,Cu,P TLDs when irradiated in several standard photon beams of the LNE-LNHB (French national metrology laboratory for ionizing radiation). Measurement strategies and Monte Carlo techniques were developed to calibrate the LiF:Mg,Cu,P detectors in the energy interval characteristic of that found when TLDs are immersed in water around an (192)Ir source. Finally, an experimental system was designed to irradiate TLDs at different angles between 1 and 11 cm away from an (192)Ir source in liquid water. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to correct measured results to provide estimates of the absorbed dose to water in water around the (192)Ir source. The dose response dependence of LiF:Mg,Cu,P TLDs with the linear energy transfer of secondary electrons followed the same variations as those of published results. The calibration strategy which used TLDs in air exposed to a standard N-250 ISO x-ray beam and TLDs in water irradiated with a standard (137)Cs beam provided an estimated mean uncertainty of 2.8% (k = 1) in the TLD calibration coefficient for irradiations by the (192)Ir source in water. The 3D TLD measurements performed in liquid water were obtained with a maximum uncertainty of 11% (k = 1) found at 1 cm from the source. Radial dose values in water were compared against published results of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine and the European Society for Radiotherapy and Oncology and no significant differences (maximum value of 3.1%) were found within uncertainties except for one position at 9 cm (5.8%). At this location the background contribution relative to the TLD signal is relatively small and an unexpected experimental fluctuation in the background estimate may have caused such a large discrepancy. This paper shows that reliable measurements with TLDs in complex energy spectra require a study of the detector dose response with the radiation quality and specific calibration methodologies which model accurately the experimental conditions where the detectors will be used. The authors have developed and studied a method with highly sensitive TLDs and contributed to its validation by comparison with results from the literature. This methodology can be used to provide direct estimates of the absorbed dose rate in water for irradiations with HDR (192)Ir brachytherapy sources.

Sensitivity analysis of radionuclides atmospheric dispersion following the Fukushima accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Sylvain; Korsakissok, Irène; Mallet, Vivien

2014-05-01

Atmospheric dispersion models are used in response to accidental releases with two purposes: - minimising the population exposure during the accident; - complementing field measurements for the assessment of short and long term environmental and sanitary impacts. The predictions of these models are subject to considerable uncertainties of various origins. Notably, input data, such as meteorological fields or estimations of emitted quantities as function of time, are highly uncertain. The case studied here is the atmospheric release of radionuclides following the Fukushima Daiichi disaster. The model used in this study is Polyphemus/Polair3D, from which derives IRSN's operational long distance atmospheric dispersion model ldX. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to estimate the relative importance of a set of identified uncertainty sources. The complexity of this task was increased by four characteristics shared by most environmental models: - high dimensional inputs; - correlated inputs or inputs with complex structures; - high dimensional output; - multiplicity of purposes that require sophisticated and non-systematic post-processing of the output. The sensitivities of a set of outputs were estimated with the Morris screening method. The input ranking was highly dependent on the considered output. Yet, a few variables, such as horizontal diffusion coefficient or clouds thickness, were found to have a weak influence on most of them and could be discarded from further studies. The sensitivity analysis procedure was also applied to indicators of the model performance computed on a set of gamma dose rates observations. This original approach is of particular interest since observations could be used later to calibrate the input variables probability distributions. Indeed, only the variables that are influential on performance scores are likely to allow for calibration. An indicator based on emission peaks time matching was elaborated in order to complement classical statistical scores which were dominated by deposit dose rates and almost insensitive to lower atmosphere dose rates. The substantial sensitivity of these performance indicators is auspicious for future calibration attempts and indicates that the simple perturbations used here may be sufficient to represent an essential part of the overall uncertainty.

Dynamic Modeling of the Human Coagulation Cascade Using Reduced Order Effective Kinetic Models (Open Access)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-16

shaded region around each total sensitivity value was the maximum uncertainty in that value estimated by the Sobol method. 2.4. Global Sensitivity...Performance We conducted a global sensitivity analysis, using the variance-based method of Sobol , to estimate which parameters controlled the...Hunter, J.D. Matplotlib: A 2D Graphics Environment. Comput. Sci. Eng. 2007, 9, 90–95. 69. Sobol , I. Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear

Differential responsiveness to cigarette price by education and income among adult urban Chinese smokers: findings from the ITC China Survey.

PubMed

Huang, Jidong; Zheng, Rong; Chaloupka, Frank J; Fong, Geoffrey T; Jiang, Yuan

2015-07-01

Few studies have examined the impact of tobacco tax and price policies in China. In addition, very little is known about the differential responses to tax and price increases based on socioeconomic status in China. To estimate the conditional cigarette consumption price elasticity among adult urban smokers in China and to examine the differential responses to cigarette price increases among groups with different income and/or educational levels. Multivariate analyses employing the general estimating equations method were conducted using the first three waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey. Analyses based on subsample by education and income were conducted. Conditional cigarette demand price elasticity ranges from -0.12 to -0.14. No differential responses to cigarette price increase were found across education levels. The price elasticity estimates do not differ between high-income smokers and medium-income smokers. Cigarette consumption among low-income smokers did not decrease after a price increase, at least among those who continued to smoke. Relative to other low-income and middle-income countries, cigarette consumption among Chinese adult smokers is not very sensitive to changes in cigarette prices. The total impact of cigarette price increase would be larger if its impact on smoking initiation and cessation, as well as the price-reducing behaviours such as brand switching and trading down, were taken into account. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Kidney transplantation after desensitization in sensitized patients: a Korean National Audit.

PubMed

Huh, Kyu Ha; Kim, Beom Seok; Yang, Jaeseok; Ahn, Jeongmyung; Kim, Myung-Gyu; Park, Jae Berm; Kim, Jong Man; Chung, Byung-Ha; Kim, Joong Kyung; Kong, Jin Min

2012-10-01

The number of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients with preformed antibodies waiting for a kidney transplant has been increasing lately. We conducted a nationwide study on the outcomes of kidney transplantation after desensitization in Korea. Six transplant centers have run desensitization programs. The patients who underwent living donor kidney transplantation after desensitization from 2002 to 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 86 cases were enrolled. Thirty-five of these were cases of re-transplantation (40.7 %). Indications of desensitization were positive complement-dependent cytotoxicity (CDC) cross-match responses (CDC(+), 36.0 %), positive flow-cytometric cross-match responses (FCX(+), 54.7 %), and positive donor-specific antibodies (DSA(+), 8.1 %). The desensitization protocols used pre-transplant plasmapheresis (95.3 %), intravenous immunoglobulin (62.8 %), and rituximab (67.4 %). Acute rejection occurred in 18 patients (20.9 %), graft failure occurred in 4 patients, and the 3-year graft survival rate was 93.8 %. The presence of DSA increased the acute rejection rate (P = 0.015) and decreased the 1-year post-transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate (P = 0.006). Although rejection-free survival rates did not differ significantly between the CDC(+) and FCX(+) groups, the 1-year estimated glomerular filtration rate was lower in the CDC(+) group (P = 0.010). Infectious and significant bleeding complications occurred in 15.5 % and 4.7 % of cases, respectively. Kidney transplantation after desensitization had good graft outcomes and tolerable complications in Korea, and therefore, this therapy can be recommended for sensitized ESRD patients.

Determining Methane Leak Locations and Rates with a Wireless Network Composed of Low-Cost, Printed Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. J.; Kim, B.; Zhang, Y.; Ng, T. N.; Beck, V.; Ganguli, A.; Saha, B.; Daniel, G.; Lee, J.; Whiting, G.; Meyyappan, M.; Schwartz, D. E.

2015-12-01

We will present our progress on the development of a wireless sensor network that will determine the source and rate of detected methane leaks. The targeted leak detection threshold is 2 g/min with a rate estimation error of 20% and localization error of 1 m within an outdoor area of 100 m2. The network itself is composed of low-cost, high-performance sensor nodes based on printed nanomaterials with expected sensitivity below 1 ppmv methane. High sensitivity to methane is achieved by modifying high surface-area-to-volume-ratio single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) with materials that adsorb methane molecules. Because the modified SWNTs are not perfectly selective to methane, the sensor nodes contain arrays of variously-modified SWNTs to build diversity of response towards gases with adsorption affinity. Methane selectivity is achieved through advanced pattern-matching algorithms of the array's ensemble response. The system is low power and designed to operate for a year on a single small battery. The SWNT sensing elements consume only microwatts. The largest power consumer is the wireless communication, which provides robust, real-time measurement data. Methane leak localization and rate estimation will be performed by machine-learning algorithms built with the aid of computational fluid dynamics simulations of gas plume formation. This sensor system can be broadly applied at gas wells, distribution systems, refineries, and other downstream facilities. It also can be utilized for industrial and residential safety applications, and adapted to other gases and gas combinations.

Standardized Index of Shape (DCE-MRI) and Standardized Uptake Value (PET/CT): Two quantitative approaches to discriminate chemo-radiotherapy locally advanced rectal cancer responders under a functional profile

PubMed Central

Petrillo, Antonella; Fusco, Roberta; Petrillo, Mario; Granata, Vincenza; Delrio, Paolo; Bianco, Francesco; Pecori, Biagio; Botti, Gerardo; Tatangelo, Fabiana; Caracò, Corradina; Aloj, Luigi; Avallone, Antonio; Lastoria, Secondo

2017-01-01

Purpose To investigate dynamic contrast enhanced-MRI (DCE-MRI) in the preoperative chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) assessment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) compared to18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT). Methods 75 consecutive patients with LARC were enrolled in a prospective study. DCE-MRI analysis was performed measuring SIS: linear combination of percentage change (Δ) of maximum signal difference (MSD) and wash-out slope (WOS). 18F-FDG PET/CT analysis was performed using SUV maximum (SUVmax). Tumor regression grade (TRG) were estimated after surgery. Non-parametric tests, receiver operating characteristic were evaluated. Results 55 patients (TRG1-2) were classified as responders while 20 subjects as non responders. ΔSIS reached sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 80% and accuracy of 89% (cut-off 6%) to differentiate responders by non responders, sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 69% and accuracy of 79% (cut-off 30%) to identify pathological complete response (pCR). Therapy assessment via ΔSUVmax reached sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and accuracy of 70% (cut-off 60%) to differentiate responders by non responders and sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 31% and accuracy of 51% (cut-off 44%) to identify pCR. Conclusions CRT response assessment by DCE-MRI analysis shows a higher predictive ability than 18F-FDG PET/CT in LARC patients allowing to better discriminate significant and pCR. PMID:28042958

Standardized Index of Shape (DCE-MRI) and Standardized Uptake Value (PET/CT): Two quantitative approaches to discriminate chemo-radiotherapy locally advanced rectal cancer responders under a functional profile.

PubMed

Petrillo, Antonella; Fusco, Roberta; Petrillo, Mario; Granata, Vincenza; Delrio, Paolo; Bianco, Francesco; Pecori, Biagio; Botti, Gerardo; Tatangelo, Fabiana; Caracò, Corradina; Aloj, Luigi; Avallone, Antonio; Lastoria, Secondo

2017-01-31

To investigate dynamic contrast enhanced-MRI (DCE-MRI) in the preoperative chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) assessment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) compared to18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT). 75 consecutive patients with LARC were enrolled in a prospective study. DCE-MRI analysis was performed measuring SIS: linear combination of percentage change (Δ) of maximum signal difference (MSD) and wash-out slope (WOS). 18F-FDG PET/CT analysis was performed using SUV maximum (SUVmax). Tumor regression grade (TRG) were estimated after surgery. Non-parametric tests, receiver operating characteristic were evaluated. 55 patients (TRG1-2) were classified as responders while 20 subjects as non responders. ΔSIS reached sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 80% and accuracy of 89% (cut-off 6%) to differentiate responders by non responders, sensitivity of 93%, specificity of 69% and accuracy of 79% (cut-off 30%) to identify pathological complete response (pCR). Therapy assessment via ΔSUVmax reached sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and accuracy of 70% (cut-off 60%) to differentiate responders by non responders and sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 31% and accuracy of 51% (cut-off 44%) to identify pCR. CRT response assessment by DCE-MRI analysis shows a higher predictive ability than 18F-FDG PET/CT in LARC patients allowing to better discriminate significant and pCR.

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

PubMed Central

Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

2007-01-01

Background The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Methods Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. Results The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. Conclusion When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results. PMID:17714598

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study.

PubMed

Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

2007-08-23

The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.

Effect of time-activity adjustment on exposure assessment for traffic-related ultrafine particles

PubMed Central

Lane, Kevin J; Levy, Jonathan I; Scammell, Madeleine Kangsen; Patton, Allison P; Durant, John L; Mwamburi, Mkaya; Zamore, Wig; Brugge, Doug

2015-01-01

Exposures to ultrafine particles (<100 nm, estimated as particle number concentration, PNC) differ from ambient concentrations because of the spatial and temporal variability of both PNC and people. Our goal was to evaluate the influence of time-activity adjustment on exposure assignment and associations with blood biomarkers for a near-highway population. A regression model based on mobile monitoring and spatial and temporal variables was used to generate hourly ambient residential PNC for a full year for a subset of participants (n=140) in the Community Assessment of Freeway Exposure and Health study. We modified the ambient estimates for each hour using personal estimates of hourly time spent in five micro-environments (inside home, outside home, at work, commuting, other) as well as particle infiltration. Time-activity adjusted (TAA)-PNC values differed from residential ambient annual average (RAA)-PNC, with lower exposures predicted for participants who spent more time away from home. Employment status and distance to highway had a differential effect on TAA-PNC. We found associations of RAA-PNC with high sensitivity C-reactive protein and Interleukin-6, although exposure-response functions were non-monotonic. TAA-PNC associations had larger effect estimates and linear exposure-response functions. Our findings suggest that time-activity adjustment improves exposure assessment for air pollutants that vary greatly in space and time. PMID:25827314

Quantitative risk assessment of the aggregate dermal exposure to the sensitizing fragrance geraniol in personal care products and household cleaning agents.

PubMed

Nijkamp, M M; Bokkers, B G H; Bakker, M I; Ezendam, J; Delmaar, J E

2015-10-01

A quantitative risk assessment was performed to establish if consumers are at risk for being dermally sensitized by the fragrance geraniol. Aggregate dermal exposure to geraniol was estimated using the Probabilistic Aggregate Consumer Exposure Model, containing data on the use of personal care products and household cleaning agents. Consumer exposure to geraniol via personal care products appeared to be higher than via household cleaning agents. The hands were the body parts receiving the highest exposure to geraniol. Dermal sensitization studies were assessed to derive the point of departure needed for the estimation of the Acceptable Exposure Level (AEL). Two concentrations were derived, one based on human studies and the other from dose-response analysis of the available murine local lymph node assay data. The aggregate dermal exposure assessment resulted in body part specific median exposures up to 0.041 μg/cm(2) (highest exposure 102 μg/cm(2)) for hands. Comparing the exposure to the lowest AEL (55 μg/cm(2)), shows that a range of 0.02-0.86% of the population may have an aggregated exposure which exceeds the AEL. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that personal care products contribute more to the consumer's geraniol exposure compared to household cleaning agents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The health-related social costs of alcohol in Belgium.

PubMed

Verhaeghe, Nick; Lievens, Delfine; Annemans, Lieven; Vander Laenen, Freya; Putman, Koen

2017-12-16

Alcohol is associated with adverse health effects causing a considerable economic impact to society. A reliable estimate of this economic impact for Belgium is lacking. This is the aim of the study. A prevalence-based approach estimating the direct, indirect and intangible costs for the year 2012 was used. Attributional fractions for a series of health effects were derived from literature. The human capital approach was used to estimate indirect costs, while the concept of disability-adjusted life years was used to estimate intangible costs. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty around cost estimates and to evaluate the impact of alternative modelling assumptions. In 2012, total alcohol-attributable direct costs were estimated at €906.1 million, of which the majority were due to hospitalization (€743.7 million, 82%). The indirect costs amounted to €642.6 million, of which 62% was caused by premature mortality. Alcohol was responsible for 157,500 disability-adjusted life years representing €6.3 billion intangible costs. Despite a number of limitations intrinsic to this kind of research, the study can be considered as the most comprehensive analysis thus far of the health-related social costs of alcohol in Belgium.

Sucralose Affects Glycemic and Hormonal Responses to an Oral Glucose Load

PubMed Central

Pepino, M. Yanina; Tiemann, Courtney D.; Patterson, Bruce W.; Wice, Burton M.; Klein, Samuel

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE Nonnutritive sweeteners (NNS), such as sucralose, have been reported to have metabolic effects in animal models. However, the relevance of these findings to human subjects is not clear. We evaluated the acute effects of sucralose ingestion on the metabolic response to an oral glucose load in obese subjects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Seventeen obese subjects (BMI 42.3 ± 1.6 kg/m2) who did not use NNS and were insulin sensitive (based on a homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance score ≤2.6) underwent a 5-h modified oral glucose tolerance test on two separate occasions preceded by consuming either sucralose (experimental condition) or water (control condition) 10 min before the glucose load in a randomized crossover design. Indices of β-cell function, insulin sensitivity (SI), and insulin clearance rates were estimated by using minimal models of glucose, insulin, and C-peptide kinetics. RESULTS Compared with the control condition, sucralose ingestion caused 1) a greater incremental increase in peak plasma glucose concentrations (4.2 ± 0.2 vs. 4.8 ± 0.3 mmol/L; P = 0.03), 2) a 20 ± 8% greater incremental increase in insulin area under the curve (AUC) (P < 0.03), 3) a 22 ± 7% greater peak insulin secretion rate (P < 0.02), 4) a 7 ± 4% decrease in insulin clearance (P = 0.04), and 5) a 23 ± 20% decrease in SI (P = 0.01). There were no significant differences between conditions in active glucagon-like peptide 1, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, glucagon incremental AUC, or indices of the sensitivity of the β-cell response to glucose. CONCLUSIONS These data demonstrate that sucralose affects the glycemic and insulin responses to an oral glucose load in obese people who do not normally consume NNS. PMID:23633524

Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe

PubMed Central

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe. PMID:25452694

Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.

PubMed

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.

Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (LSAS): Optimal cut points for remission and response in a German sample.

PubMed

von Glischinski, M; Willutzki, U; Stangier, U; Hiller, W; Hoyer, J; Leibing, E; Leichsenring, F; Hirschfeld, G

2018-02-11

The Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (LSAS) is the most frequently used instrument to assess social anxiety disorder (SAD) in clinical research and practice. Both a self-reported (LSAS-SR) and a clinician-administered (LSAS-CA) version are available. The aim of the present study was to define optimal cut-off (OC) scores for remission and response to treatment for the LSAS in a German sample. Data of N = 311 patients with SAD were used who had completed psychotherapeutic treatment within a multicentre randomized controlled trial. Diagnosis of SAD and reduction in symptom severity according to the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, served as gold standard. OCs yielding the best balance between sensitivity and specificity were determined using receiver operating characteristics. The variability of the resulting OCs was estimated by nonparametric bootstrapping. Using diagnosis of SAD (present vs. absent) as a criterion, results for remission indicated cut-off values of 35 for the LSAS-SR and 30 for the LSAS-CA, with acceptable sensitivity (LSAS-SR: .83, LSAS-CA: .88) and specificity (LSAS-SR: .82, LSAS-CA: .87). For detection of response to treatment, assessed by a 1-point reduction in the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, rating, a reduction of 28% for the LSAS-SR and 29% for the LSAS-CA yielded the best balance between sensitivity (LSAS-SR: .75, LSAS-CA: .83) and specificity (LSAS-SR: .76, LSAS-CA: .80). To our knowledge, we are the first to define cut points for the LSAS in a German sample. Overall, the cut points for remission and response corroborate previously reported cut points, now building on a broader data basis. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MRI and PET/CT for evaluation of the pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Huimin; Yao, Liang; Jin, Penghui; Hu, Lidong; Li, Xiaofei; Guo, Tiankang; Yang, Kehu

2018-05-11

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has become an essential treatment for breast cancer. However, there is still no consensus on the best tool to evaluate pathological response to NAC. Two reviewers systematically searched Cochrane, PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and CBM (last updated in February 2017) for eligible articles. We independently screened and selected studies that conformed to the inclusion criteria and extracted the requisite data. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the SROC curve were calculated to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission computed tomography (PET/CT). And the relative DOR (RDOR) was used to compare accuracy for levels of the covariable. Thirteen studies involving 575 patients who underwent MRI and 618 who underwent PET/CT were included in our analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of MRI were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.78-0.94) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.51-0.83), respectively. The corresponding values for PET/CT were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.58-0.90) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.88), respectively. The area under the SROC curve for MRI and PET/CT were 0.88 and 0.84, respectively. And the RDOR = 1.44 (95% CI, 0.46-4.47 P = 0.83). MRI had a higher sensitivity and PET/CT had a higher specificity in predicting the pathologic response after NAC in patients with breast cancer. According to the area under the SROC curve and anatomic discriminative resolution, MRI is the more suitable recommendation for predicting the pathologic response after NAC. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic response signatures of a scaled model platform for floating wind turbines in an ocean wave basin.

PubMed

Jaksic, V; O'Shea, R; Cahill, P; Murphy, J; Mandic, D P; Pakrashi, V

2015-02-28

Understanding of dynamic behaviour of offshore wind floating substructures is extremely important in relation to design, operation, maintenance and management of floating wind farms. This paper presents assessment of nonlinear signatures of dynamic responses of a scaled tension-leg platform (TLP) in a wave tank exposed to different regular wave conditions and sea states characterized by the Bretschneider, the Pierson-Moskowitz and the JONSWAP spectra. Dynamic responses of the TLP were monitored at different locations using load cells, a camera-based motion recognition system and a laser Doppler vibrometer. The analysis of variability of the TLP responses and statistical quantification of their linearity or nonlinearity, as non-destructive means of structural monitoring from the output-only condition, remains a challenging problem. In this study, the delay vector variance (DVV) method is used to statistically study the degree of nonlinearity of measured response signals from a TLP. DVV is observed to create a marker estimating the degree to which a change in signal nonlinearity reflects real-time behaviour of the structure and also to establish the sensitivity of the instruments employed to these changes. The findings can be helpful in establishing monitoring strategies and control strategies for undesirable levels or types of dynamic response and can help to better estimate changes in system characteristics over the life cycle of the structure. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Spatial Resolution Characterization for QuickBird Image Products 2003-2004 Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blonski, Slawomir

2006-01-01

This presentation focuses on spatial resolution characterization for QuickBird panochromatic images in 2003-2004 and presents data measurements and analysis of SSC edge target deployment and edge response extraction and modeling. The results of the characterization are shown as values of the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) at the Nyquist spatial frequency and as the Relative Edge Response (RER) components. The results show that RER is much less sensitive to accuracy of the curve fitting than the value of MTF at Nyquist frequency. Therefore, the RER/edge response slope is a more robust estimator of the digital image spatial resolution than the MTF. For the QuickBird panochromatic images, the RER is consistently equal to 0.5 for images processed with the Cubic Convolution resampling and to 0.8 for the MTF resampling.

Binaural sensitivity changes between cortical on and off responses

PubMed Central

Dahmen, Johannes C.; King, Andrew J.; Schnupp, Jan W. H.

2011-01-01

Neurons exhibiting on and off responses with different frequency tuning have previously been described in the primary auditory cortex (A1) of anesthetized and awake animals, but it is unknown whether other tuning properties, including sensitivity to binaural localization cues, also differ between on and off responses. We measured the sensitivity of A1 neurons in anesthetized ferrets to 1) interaural level differences (ILDs), using unmodulated broadband noise with varying ILDs and average binaural levels, and 2) interaural time delays (ITDs), using sinusoidally amplitude-modulated broadband noise with varying envelope ITDs. We also assessed fine-structure ITD sensitivity and frequency tuning, using pure-tone stimuli. Neurons most commonly responded to stimulus onset only, but purely off responses and on-off responses were also recorded. Of the units exhibiting significant binaural sensitivity nearly one-quarter showed binaural sensitivity in both on and off responses, but in almost all (∼97%) of these units the binaural tuning of the on responses differed significantly from that seen in the off responses. Moreover, averaged, normalized ILD and ITD tuning curves calculated from all units showing significant sensitivity to binaural cues indicated that on and off responses displayed different sensitivity patterns across the population. A principal component analysis of ITD response functions suggested a continuous cortical distribution of binaural sensitivity, rather than discrete response classes. Rather than reflecting a release from inhibition without any functional significance, we propose that binaural off responses may be important to cortical encoding of sound-source location. PMID:21562191

A direct sensitivity approach to predict hourly ozone resulting from compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standard.

PubMed

Simon, Heather; Baker, Kirk R; Akhtar, Farhan; Napelenok, Sergey L; Possiel, Norm; Wells, Benjamin; Timin, Brian

2013-03-05

In setting primary ambient air quality standards, the EPA's responsibility under the law is to establish standards that protect public health. As part of the current review of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), the US EPA evaluated the health exposure and risks associated with ambient ozone pollution using a statistical approach to adjust recent air quality to simulate just meeting the current standard level, without specifying emission control strategies. One drawback of this purely statistical concentration rollback approach is that it does not take into account spatial and temporal heterogeneity of ozone response to emissions changes. The application of the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) in the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model is discussed here to provide an example of a methodology that could incorporate this variability into the risk assessment analyses. Because this approach includes a full representation of the chemical production and physical transport of ozone in the atmosphere, it does not require assumed background concentrations, which have been applied to constrain estimates from past statistical techniques. The CMAQ-HDDM adjustment approach is extended to measured ozone concentrations by determining typical sensitivities at each monitor location and hour of the day based on a linear relationship between first-order sensitivities and hourly ozone values. This approach is demonstrated by modeling ozone responses for monitor locations in Detroit and Charlotte to domain-wide reductions in anthropogenic NOx and VOCs emissions. As seen in previous studies, ozone response calculated using HDDM compared well to brute-force emissions changes up to approximately a 50% reduction in emissions. A new stepwise approach is developed here to apply this method to emissions reductions beyond 50% allowing for the simulation of more stringent reductions in ozone concentrations. Compared to previous rollback methods, this application of modeled sensitivities to ambient ozone concentrations provides a more realistic spatial response of ozone concentrations at monitors inside and outside the urban core and at hours of both high and low ozone concentrations.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Apomorphine conditioning and sensitization: the paired/unpaired treatment order as a new major determinant of drug conditioned and sensitization effects.

PubMed

de Matos, Liana Wermelinger; Carey, Robert J; Carrera, Marinete Pinheiro

2010-09-01

Repeated treatments with psychostimulant drugs generate behavioral sensitization. In the present study we employed a paired/unpaired protocol to assess the effects of repeated apomorphine (2.0 mg/kg) treatments upon locomotion behavior. In the first experiment we assessed the effects of conditioning upon apomorphine sensitization. Neither the extinction of the conditioned response nor a counter-conditioning procedure in which we paired an inhibitory treatment (apomorphine 0.05 mg/kg) with the previously established conditioned stimulus modified the sensitization response. In the second experiment, we administered the paired/unpaired protocol in two phases. In the second phase, we reversed the paired/unpaired protocol. Following the first phase, the paired group alone exhibited conditioned locomotion in the vehicle test and a sensitization response. In the second phase, the initial unpaired group which received 5 paired apomorphine trials during the reversal phase did not develop a conditioned response but developed a potentiated sensitization response. This disassociation of the conditioned response from the sensitization response is attributed to an apomorphine anti-habituation effect that can generate a false positive Pavlovian conditioned response effect. The potentiated sensitization response induced by the treatment reversal protocol points to an important role for the sequential experience of the paired/unpaired protocol in behavioral sensitization. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.