The Estimated Incidence of Induced Abortion in Ethiopia, 2014: Changes in the Provision of Services Since 2008

PubMed Central

Moore, Ann M.; Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Fetters, Tamara; Wado, Yohannes Dibaba; Bankole, Akinrinola; Singh, Susheela; Gebreselassie, Hailemichael; Getachew, Yonas

2017-01-01

CONTEXT In 2005, Ethiopia’s parliament amended the penal code to expand the circumstances in which abortion is legal. Although the country has expanded access to abortion and postabortion care, the last estimates of abortion incidence date from 2008. METHODS Data were collected in 2014 from a nationally representative sample of 822 facilities that provide abortion or postabortion care, and from 82 key informants knowledgeable about abortion services in Ethiopia. The Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology and the Prospective Morbidity Methodology were used to estimate the incidence of abortion in Ethiopia and assess trends since 2008. RESULTS An estimated 620,300 induced abortions were performed in Ethiopia in 2014. The annual abortion rate was 28 per 1,000 women aged 15–49, an increase from 22 per 1,000 in 2008, and was highest in urban regions (Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa and Harari). Between 2008 and 2014, the proportion of abortions occurring in facilities rose from 27% to 53%, and the number of such abortions increased substantially; nonetheless, an estimated 294,100 abortions occurred outside of health facilities in 2014. The number of women receiving treatment for complications from induced abortion nearly doubled between 2008 and 2014, from 52,600 to 103,600. Thirty-eight percent of pregnancies were unintended in 2014, a slight decline from 42% in 2008. CONCLUSIONS Although the increases in the number of women obtaining legal abortions and postabortion care are consistent with improvements in women’s access to health care, a substantial number of abortions continue to occur outside of health facilities, a reality that must be addressed. PMID:28825902

Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (Dalys) for Common Neglected Tropical Diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: Evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

PubMed Central

Deribew, A; Kebede, B; Tessema, GA; Adama, YA; Misganaw, A; Gebre, T; Hailu, A; Biadgilign, S; Amberbir, A; Desalegn, B; Abajobir, AA; Shafi, O; Abera, SF; Negussu, N; Mengistu, B; Amare, AT; Mulugeta, A; Kebede, Z; Mengistu, B; Tadesse, Z; Sileshi, M; Tamiru, M; Chromwel, EA; Glenn, SD; Stanaway, JD; Deribe, K

2017-01-01

Introduction Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are important public health problems in Ethiopia. In 2013, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has launched a national NTD master plan to eliminate major NTDs of public health importance by 2020. Benchmarking the current status of NTDs in the country is important to monitor and evaluate the progress in the implementation of interventions and their impacts. Therefore, this study aims to assess the trends of mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-Years (DALY) for the priority NTDs over the last 25 years. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 estimates for this study. The GBD 2015 data source for cause of death and DALY estimation included verbal autopsy (VA), Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and other disease specific surveys, Ministry of Health reports submitted to United Nations (UN) agencies and published scientific articles. Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) and/or natural history models were used to estimate NTDs mortality rates. DALY were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD). Results All NTDs caused an estimated of 6,293 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3699-10,080) in 1990 and 3,593 deaths (95% UI: 2051 – 6178) in 2015, a 43% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rates due to schistosomiasis, STH and leshmaniasis have declined by 91.3%, 73.5% and 21.6% respectively between 1990 to 2015. The number of DALYs due to all NTDs has declined from 814.4 thousand (95% UI: 548 thousand–1.2million) in 1990 to 579.5 thousand (95%UI: 309.4 thousand–1.3 million) in 2015. Age-standardized DALY rates due to all NTDs declined by 30.7%, from 17.6 per 1000(95%UI: 12.5-26.5) in 1990 to 12.2 per 1000(95%UI: 6.5 – 27.4) in 2015. Age-standardized DALY rate for trachoma declined from 92.7 per 100,000(95% UI: 63.2 – 128.4) in 1990 to 41.2 per 100,000(95%UI: 27.4–59.2) in 2015, a 55.6% reduction between 1990 and 2015. Age-standardized DALY rates for onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and lymphiaticfilariasis decreased by 66.2%, 29.4% and 12.5% respectively between 1990 and 2015. DALY rate for ascariasis fell by 56.8% over the past 25 years. Conclusions Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates for most of the NTDs over the last 25 years. The rapid scale of interventions and broader system strengthening may have a lasting impact on achieving the 2020 goal of elimination of most of NTDs. Ethiopia should strengthen the coverage of integrated interventions of NTD through proper coordination with other health programs and sectors and community participation to eliminate NTDs by 2020. PMID:28878427

Successes and challenges of the millennium development goals in Ethiopia: lessons for the sustainable development goals.

PubMed

Assefa, Yibeltal; Damme, Wim Van; Williams, Owain D; Hill, Peter S

2017-01-01

We analysed the performance of Ethiopia in achieving the health-related millennium development goals (MDGs) with the aim of acquiring lessons for the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Ethiopia achieved most of the health MDGs: a 67% reduction in under-five mortality, a 71% decline in maternal mortality ratio, a 90% decline in new HIV infections, a decrease in malaria-related deaths by 73% and a more than 50% decline in mortality due to tuberculosis. We argue that these achievements are due to implementation of a mix of comprehensive strategies within the health system and across other sectors of the government. Scaling up of interventions by disease control programmes (including the health extension programme) and strengthening of the health system have played important roles towards the achievements. These health gains could not have been realised without progress in the other MDGs: poverty reduction, education, access to safe drinking-water and peace and stability of the country. However, the gains were not equitable, with differences between urban and rural areas, among regions and socioeconomic strata. Ethiopia's remarkable success in meeting most of the targets of the health-related MDGs could be explained by its comprehensive and multisectoral approach for health development. The inequity gap remains a challenge that achieving the health-related SDGs requires the country to implement strategies, which specifically target more marginal populations and geographic areas. This also needs peace and stability, without which it is almost impossible to improve health.

Teachers' Career Ladder Policy in Ethiopia: An Opportunity for Professional Growth or ''a Stick Disguised as a Carrot?''

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tekleselassie, Abebayehu A.

2005-01-01

In response to the ever-declining status of the teaching profession, and its adverse effects on the country's educational system, the Federal Ministry of Education in Ethiopia introduced a policy of the teachers' career ladder in 1994. While reformers believe that the introduction of the policy has improved the condition of the teaching…

Countdown to 2015: comparing progress towards the achievement of the health Millennium Development Goals in Ethiopia and other sub-Saharan African countries.

PubMed

Accorsi, Sandro; Bilal, Nejmudin Kedir; Farese, Pasquale; Racalbuto, Vincenzo

2010-05-01

Mid-way 2007 reports indicate that many low-income countries, at current rates of progress, are unlikely to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) by 2015. In Ethiopia, a decline was observed in under-five mortality rates from 204 to 123 per 1000 live births between 1990 and 2005, showing good progress towards the achievement of MDG4. A downward trend was observed in the maternal mortality ratio; however, because of the high degree of sampling variability, it is not possible to reach any firm conclusion about the possibility of achieving MDG5. Regarding MDG6, good progress was observed in controlling HIV/AIDS and malaria, whereas MDG indicators related to tuberculosis are still below international standards. Therefore, performance was not uniform across programmes. In general, interventions that can be routinely scheduled, such as immunisation, had much higher coverage than those that rely on functional health systems and clinical services proximate to households with 24h availability, such as skilled care at birth. These mixed results highlight that, although MDGs focus on specific diseases and conditions, targets cannot be achieved without strengthening health systems. It is for this reason that the strategic health plan in Ethiopia is focusing on high-impact and cost-effective health interventions and on health systems strengthening. Copyright 2009 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

PubMed

Misganaw, Awoke; Haregu, Tilahun N; Deribe, Kebede; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Deribew, Amare; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Amare, Azmeraw T; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Gedefaw, Molla; Dessalegn, Muluken; Lakew, Yihunie; Bekele, Tolesa; Mohammed, Mesoud; Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Krohn, Kristopher J; Achoki, Tom; Blore, Jed; Assefa, Yibeltal; Naghavi, Mohsen

2017-01-01

Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country's performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country.

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

PubMed

Misganaw, Awoke; Haregu, Tilahun N; Deribe, Kebede; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Deribew, Amare; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Amare, Azmeraw T; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Gedefaw, Molla; Dessalegn, Muluken; Lakew, Yihunie; Bekele, Tolesa; Mohammed, Mesoud; Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Krohn, Kristopher J; Achoki, Tom; Blore, Jed; Assefa, Yibeltal; Naghavi, Mohsen

2017-07-21

Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country's performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country.

Blending local scale information for developing agricultural resilience in Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory; Mahiny, A.S; Eilerts, Gary; Rowland, James

2013-01-01

This brief article looks at the intersection of climate, land cover/land use, and population trends in the world's most food insecure country, Ethiopia. As a result of warming in the Indian and Western Pacific oceans, Ethiopia has experienced substantial drying over the past 20 years. We intersect the spatial pattern of this drying with high resolution climatologies, maps of agricultural expansion, population data, and socioeconomic livelihoods information to suggest that the coincidence of drying and agricultural expansion in south-central Ethiopia is likely adversely affecting a densely populated region with high levels of poverty and low wage levels.

Steep declines in population-level AIDS mortality following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Reniers, Georges; Araya, Tekebash; Davey, Gail; Nagelkerke, Nico; Berhane, Yemane; Coutinho, Roel; Sanders, Eduard J.

2009-01-01

Objectives Assessments of population-level effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Africa are rare. We use data from burial sites to estimate trends in adult AIDS mortality and the mitigating effects of ART in Addis Ababa. ART has been available since 2003, and for free since 2005. Methods To substitute for deficient vital registration, we use surveillance of burials at all cemeteries. We present trends in all-cause mortality, and estimate AIDS mortality (ages 20–64) from lay reports of causes of death. These lay reports are first used as a diagnostic test for the true cause of death. As reference standard we use the cause of death established via verbal autopsy interviews conducted in 2004. The Positive Predictive Value and Sensitivity are subsequently used as anchors to estimate the number of AIDS deaths for the period 2001–2007. Estimates are compared with Spectrum projections. Results Between 2001 and 2005, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 21.9% and 9.3% for men and women, respectively. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 38.2% for men and 42.9% for women. Compared to the expected number in the absence of ART, the reduction in AIDS deaths in 2007 is estimated between 56.8% and 63.3%, depending on the coverage of the burial surveillance. Conclusion Five years into the ART program, adult AIDS mortality has been reduced by more than half. Following the free provision of ART in 2005, the decline accelerated and became more gender balanced. Substantial AIDS mortality, however, persists. PMID:19169138

Inequalities in Maternal Health Care Utilization in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Multiyear and Multi-Country Analysis

PubMed Central

Alam, Nazmul; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Dumont, Alexandre; Fournier, Pierre

2015-01-01

To assess social inequalities in the use of antenatal care (ANC), facility based delivery (FBD), and modern contraception (MC) in two contrasting groups of countries in sub-Saharan Africa divided based on their progress towards maternal mortality reduction. Six countries were included in this study. Three countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda) had <350 MMR in 2010 with >4.5% average annual reduction rate while another three (Cameroon, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) had >550 MMR in 2010 with only <1.5% average annual reduction rate. All of these countries had at least three rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) before 2012. We measured rate ratios and differences, as well as relative and absolute concentration indices in order to examine within-country geographical and wealth-based inequalities in the utilization of ANC, FBD, and MC. In the countries which have made sufficient progress (i.e. Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Uganda), ANC use increased by 8.7, 9.3 and 5.7 percent, respectively, while the utilization of FBD increased by 4.7, 0.7 and 20.2 percent, respectively, over the last decade. By contrast, utilization of these services either plateaued or decreased in countries which did not make progress towards reducing maternal mortality, with the exception of Cameroon. Utilization of MC increased in all six countries but remained very low, with a high of 40.5% in Zimbabwe and low of 16.1% in Cameroon as of 2011. In general, relative measures of inequalities were found to have declined overtime in countries making progress towards reducing maternal mortality. In countries with insufficient progress towards maternal mortality reduction, these indicators remained stagnant or increased. Absolute measures for geographical and wealth-based inequalities remained high invariably in all six countries. The increasing trend in the utilization of maternal care services was found to concur with a steady decline in maternal mortality. Relative inequality declined overtime in countries which made progress towards reducing maternal mortality. PMID:25853423

Reasons for Persistently High Maternal and Perinatal Mortalities in Ethiopia: Part II-Socio-Economic and Cultural Factors

PubMed Central

Berhan, Yifru; Berhan, Asres

2014-01-01

Background The major causes of maternal and perinatal deaths are mostly pregnancy related. However, there are several predisposing factors for the increased risk of pregnancy related complications and deaths in developing countries. The objective of this review was to grossly estimate the effect of selected socioeconomic and cultural factors on maternal mortality, stillbirths and neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. Methods A comprehensive literature review was conducted focusing on the effect of total fertility rate (TFR), modern contraceptive use, harmful traditional practice, adult literacy rate and level of income on maternal and perinatal mortalities. For the majority of the data, regression analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient were used as a proxy indicator for the association of variables with maternal, fetal and neonatal mortality. Results Although there were variations in the methods for estimation, the TFR of women in Ethiopia declined from 5.9 to 4.8 in the last fifteen years, which was in the middle as compared with that of other African countries. The preference of injectable contraceptive method has increased by 7-fold, but the unmet contraceptive need was among the highest in Africa. About 50% reduction in female genital cutting (FGC) was reported although some women's attitude was positive towards the practice of FGC. The regression analysis demonstrated increased risk of stillbirths, neonatal and maternal mortality with increased TFR. The increased adult literacy rate was associated with increased antenatal care and skilled person attended delivery. Low adult literacy was also found to have a negative association with stillbirths and neonatal and maternal mortality. A similar trend was also observed with income. Conclusion Maternal mortality ratio, stillbirth rate and neonatal mortality rate had inverse relations with income and adult education. In Ethiopia, the high total fertility rate, low utilization of contraceptive methods, low adult literacy rate, low income and prevalent harmful traditional practices have probably contributed to the high maternal mortality ratio, stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates. PMID:25489187

Reduction in child mortality in Ethiopia: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

PubMed

Doherty, Tanya; Rohde, Sarah; Besada, Donela; Kerber, Kate; Manda, Samuel; Loveday, Marian; Nsibande, Duduzile; Daviaud, Emmanuelle; Kinney, Mary; Zembe, Wanga; Leon, Natalie; Rudan, Igor; Degefie, Tedbabe; Sanders, David

2016-12-01

To examine changes in under-5 mortality, coverage of child survival interventions and nutritional status of children in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011. Using the Lives Saved Tool, the impact of changes in coverage of child survival interventions on under-5 lives saved was estimated. Estimates of child mortality were generated using three Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys undertaken between 2000 and 2011. Coverage indicators for high impact child health interventions were calculated and the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was used to estimate child lives saved in 2011. The mortality rate in children younger than 5 years decreased rapidly from 218 child deaths per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval 183 to 252) in the period 1987-1991 to 88 child deaths per 1000 live births in the period 2007-2011 (78 to 98). The prevalence of moderate or severe stunting in children aged 6-35 months also declined significantly. Improvements in the coverage of interventions relevant to child survival in rural areas of Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011 were found for tetanus toxoid, DPT3 and measles vaccination, oral rehydration solution (ORS) and care-seeking for suspected pneumonia. The LiST analysis estimates that there were 60 700 child deaths averted in 2011, primarily attributable to decreases in wasting rates (18%), stunting rates (13%) and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions (13%). Improvements in the nutritional status of children and increases in coverage of high impact interventions most notably WASH and ORS have contributed to the decline in under-5 mortality in Ethiopia. These proximal determinants however do not fully explain the mortality reduction which is plausibly also due to the synergistic effect of major child health and nutrition policies and delivery strategies.

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

2017-10-01

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

Trends and variability of water quality in Lake Tana, Ethiopia using MODIS-Aqua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLuca, N. M.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Monger, B. C.

2017-12-01

Determining long-term water quality trends and variability in remote inland lakes has been challenging due to a lack of continuous in situ measurements. Utilizing ocean color remote sensing techniques for these lakes is difficult due to their sizes, shapes, and optically complex waters. Lake Tana is the largest body of water in Ethiopia, and is located in the country's northwestern highlands. The lake is quite shallow, averaging at about 8 meters depth, and is characteristically turbid due to nearby land degradation and high soil erosion rates. Lake Tana is an important source of accessible water for the rapidly growing population of Ethiopia and serves as the headwaters for the Blue Nile. Therefore, understanding water quality trends and seasonal variation over the past decade is essential to better preparing for future water needs. Here we use MODIS-Aqua data spanning years 2002-2016 to investigate these trends and variability in Lake Tana, where in situ measurements are limited. Daily water quality products were first processed using SeaDAS and then aggregated by month and year for analyses. Frequent cloud cover in the June, July, and August (JJA) rainy season due to monsoon and zonal dynamics presents an obstacle for obtaining mean lake values during these months. We also performed analyses on targeted regions of Lake Tana to determine whether some of the major tributaries and their corresponding watersheds have more influence on observed trends than others.

Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bariabagar, H

1978-01-01

2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

Nutritional Status of Under Five Children in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Abdulahi, Ahmed; Shab-Bidar, Sakineh; Rezaei, Shahabeddin; Djafarian, Kurosh

2017-03-01

Undernutrition is the outcome of insufficient food intake and recurrent infectious diseases. The baseline levels of undernutrition remain so high that Ethiopia still needs to continue substantial investment in nutrition.Therefore, the aim of this study was to obtain estimates of over-time trends in the prevalence of undernutrition in Ethiopia and to determine risk factors for undernutrition among children of under five years of age. Cross-sectional studies published in English from 1997 to 2015 focusing the prevalence of stunting, wasting and underweight in children aged 0-5 years (n = 39,585) in Ethiopia were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched in PubMed and Scopus databases and other articles manually. Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias in the included studies. The protocol number of the study is PROSPERO 2015: CRD42015027940. Eighteen studies were included and the overall pooled prevalence estimate of stunting, underweight and wasting was 42.0% (95% CI: 37.0, 46.0), 33.0 % (95% CI: 27.0, 39.0) and 15.0% (95% CI: 12.0, 19.0), respectively. The sensitivity analyses resulted in the prevalence of stunting, 40% (95% CI: 32.0, 48.0; I2=99.19%), prevalence of underweight, 33%(95% CI: 24.0, 42.0; I 2 =99.34%) and wasting rate equal to 19%(95% CI: 14.0, 24.0; I2=99.19%). Cumulative analysis revealed a stabilization trend of stunting and underweight (1996-2010) followed by an upward trend (2010-2014). Child age, child sex, complementary food, poor dietary diversity, diarrheal diseases, maternal education, maternal height, residential area and socio- economic status were significant risk factors for undernutrition. The result of the meta-analysis of thes observational studies revealed that the trend of undernutrition in Ethiopia indicates that there is an increment of chronic malnutrition cases in recent years, and the prevalence of undernutrition remains extremely high. Thus, the implementation of policies to reverse child undernutrition should get maximum emphasis.

Expansion vs. Quality: Emerging Issues of For-Profit Private Higher Education Institutions in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alemu, Daniel S.

2010-02-01

Private for-profit higher education has been rapidly expanding in developing countries worldwide since the early 1990s. This global trend has been particularly evident in Ethiopia, where only three public universities existed until 1996. By 2005, about 60 private for-profit higher education institutions had been founded in Ethiopia. This has led to mixed feelings among the Ethiopian public. While some laud the opportunities and advantages these new institutions bring, others are apprehensive that the quality of education might be compromised by an expansion motivated by monetary gain. This article sheds light on these paradoxes and provides suggestions for policy and practices.

Improved HIV Awareness and Perceived Empowerment to Negotiate Safe Sex among Married Women in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2011

PubMed Central

De Coninck, Zaake; Feyissa, Ibrahim A.; Ekström, Anna Mia; Marrone, Gaetano

2014-01-01

Introduction The HIV prevalence rate in Ethiopia for married (or cohabiting) women is 3 times that found amongst women who have never been married. While marriage used to be seen as a protective factor against HIV, evidence suggests that this is no longer necessarily the case. This study analyses the trend and socio-demographic determinants of HIV awareness and safe sex negotiation among married women in Ethiopia between 2005 and 2011. Methods Data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2005 and in 2011 were analysed. Socio-demographic variables as well as ‘survey year’ were selected to assess their interaction with selected HIV awareness and safe sex negotiation indicators. Multivariable regression analyses were performed. Odds ratios and confidence intervals were computed. Results A significant increase in knowledge of HIV and ability to negotiate safer sex occurred between 2005 and 2011 reflecting a positive trend in gender empowerment amongst married Ethiopian women. Some of these advancements were striking, for instance respondents were 3.6 times more likely to have “Heard of AIDS” in 2011 than in 2005. HIV awareness and safer sex negotiation were significantly associated with higher education, higher socioeconomic status, those who had heard of HIV, those of the Orthodox Christian faith, and (to some extent) those living in rural areas. Conclusion HIV awareness has increased significantly in Ethiopia over the last decade but married women are still disproportionately susceptible to HIV. Community programmes, already effective in Ethiopia, also need to target this vulnerable sub-group of women. PMID:25506823

An Epidemiological Trend of Urogenital Schistosomiasis in Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Chala, Bayissa; Torben, Workineh

2018-01-01

Schistosomiasis is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. Currently, the prevalence of the disease can possibly be heightened due to man-made ecological transformations particularly related to the recent development programs involving irrigation and construction of dams. The expansion of some of the water resource development projects has been cited enhancing the upsurge of urogenital schistosomiasis mainly in the lower altitude areas of the country. In connection to the extensive initiation of development projects in low altitude areas of the country, simultaneous and adequate attentions have never been given to address a pre-assessment of health impacts of the development programs prior to launching the projects. Helpful appraisals focusing on evaluation of epidemiology of urogenital schistosomiasis in Ethiopia have not been explored. Therefore, the current review attempts to trace an overall picture of the epidemiological status of urogenital schistosomiasis in the country; the past and existing trends of urogenital schistosomiasis surveys and control programs of the country are reviewed. Essential recommendations are highlighted for possible inputs in future control design strategies of national control program of schistosomiasis. PMID:29556490

Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan

2009-03-01

Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

The East African monsoon system: Seasonal climatologies and recent variations: Chapter 10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, J.

2016-01-01

This chapter briefly reviews the complex climatological cycle of the East African monsoon system, paying special attention to its connection to the larger Indo-Pacific-Asian monsoon cycle. We examine the seasonal monsoon cycle, and briefly explore recent circulation changes. The spatial footprint of our analysis corresponds with the “Greater Horn of Africa” (GHA) region, extending from Tanzania in the south to Yemen and Sudan in the north. During boreal winter, when northeast trade winds flow across the northwest Indian Ocean and the equatorial moisture transports over the Indian Ocean exhibit strong westerly mean flows over the equatorial Indian Ocean, East African precipitation is limited to a few highland areas. As the Indian monsoon circulation transitions during boreal spring, the trade winds over the northwest Indian Ocean reverse, and East African moisture convergence supports the “long” rains. In boreal summer, the southwesterly Somali Jet intensifies over eastern Africa. Subsidence forms along the westward flank of this jet, shutting down precipitation over eastern portions of East Africa. In boreal fall, the Jet subsides, but easterly moisture transports support rainfall in limited regions of the eastern Horn of Africa. We use regressions with the trend mode of global sea surface temperatures to explore potential changes in the seasonal monsoon circulations. Significant reductions in total precipitable water are indicated in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen, with moisture transports broadly responding in ways that reinforce the climatological moisture transports over the Indian Ocean. Over Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia, regressions with velocity potential indicate increased convergence aloft. Near the surface, this convergence appears to manifest as a surface high pressure system that modifies moisture transports in these countries as well as Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. An analysis of rainfall changes indicates significant declines in parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Yemen.

Detecting Trends in Landuse and Landcover Change of Nech Sar National Park, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Fetene, Aramde; Hilker, Thomas; Yeshitela, Kumelachew; Prasse, Ruediger; Cohen, Warren; Yang, Zhiqiang

2016-01-01

Nech Sar National Park (NSNP) is one of the most important biodiversity centers in Ethiopia. In recent years, a widespread decline of the terrestrial ecosystems has been reported, yet to date there is no comprehensive assessment on degradation across the park. In this study, changes in landcover were analyzed using 30 m spatial resolution Landsat imagery. Interannual variations of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were examined and compared with climatic variables. The result presented seven landcover classes and five of the seven landcover classes (forest, bush/shrubland, wooded grassland, woodland and grassland) were related to natural vegetation and two landcover types (cultivated land and area under encroaching plants) were direct results of anthropogenic alterations of the landscape. The forest, grassland, and wooded grassland are the most threatened habitat types. A considerable area of the grassland has been replaced by encroaching plants, prominently by Dichrostachys cinerea, Acacia mellifera, A. nilotica, A. oerfota, and A. seyal and is greatly affected by expansion of herbaceous plants, most commonly the species of the family Malvaceae which include Abutilon anglosomaliae, A.bidentatum and A.figarianu. Thus, changes in vegetation of NSNP may be attributed to (i) degradation of existing vegetation through deforestation and (ii) replacement of existing vegetation by encroaching plants. While limited in local meteorological station, NDVI analysis indicated that climate related changes did not have major effects on park vegetation degradation, which suggests anthropogenic impacts as a major driver of observed disturbances.

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Plant use in Odo-Bulu and Demaro, Bale region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

This paper reports on the plant use of laypeople of the Oromo in Southern Ethiopia. The Oromo in Bale had names/uses for 294 species in comparison to 230 species documented in the lower reaches of the Bale area. Only 13 species was used for veterinary purposes, or as human medicine (46). Plant medicine served mostly to treat common everyday ailments such as stomach problems and diarrhea, for wound treatment and as toothbrush-sticks, as anthelmintic, for skin infections and to treat sore muscles and. Interestingly, 9 species were used to treat spiritual ailments and to expel demons. In most cases of medicinal applications the leaves or roots were employed. Traditional plant knowledge has clearly declined in a large part of the research area. Western style health care services as provided by governments and NGOs, in particular in rural areas, seem to have contributed to a decline in traditional knowledge, in part because the local population simply regards western medicine as more effective and safer. PMID:21943288

Legal harvest and illegal trade: Trends, challenges, and options in khat production in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Cochrane, Logan; O'Regan, Davin

2016-04-01

The production of khat in Ethiopia has boomed over the last two decades, making the country the world's leading source. Khat is now one of Ethiopia's largest crops by area of cultivation, the country's second largest export earner, and an essential source of income for millions of Ethiopian farmers. Consumption has also spread from the traditional khat heartlands in the eastern and southern regions of Ethiopia to most major cities. This steady growth in production and use has unfolded under negligible government support or regulation. Meanwhile, khat, which releases a stimulant when chewed, is considered an illicit drug in an increasing number of countries. Drawing on government data on khat production, trade, and seizures as well as research on the political, socioeconomic, and development effects of plant-based illicit narcotics industries, this commentary identifies possible considerations and scenarios for Ethiopia as the country begins to manage rising khat production, domestic consumption, and criminalization abroad. Deeply embedded in social and cultural practices and a major source of government and agricultural revenue, Ethiopian policymakers have few enviable choices. Criminalization abroad raises a small but not insignificant possibility that previously nonexistent linkages between khat and transnational organized crime and trafficking networks will emerge. Likewise, more stringent regulation of khat in Ethiopia could merge with lingering political cleavages and anti-government sentiments, exacerbating low-level domestic conflicts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Reda, A Alex; Lindstrom, David

2014-07-01

Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20-29. Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts.

Recent trends in the timing of first sex and marriage among young women in Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Lindstrom, David

2015-01-01

Context Ethiopia has been characterized by high population growth. Recent social and economic developments have the potential to alter reproductive patterns in the country. Some of these developments include sustained economic growth, urbanization, rapid growth in school enrollments, expansion of primary health care, and a rise in contraceptive access and use. In other national contexts, these developments have been associated with a gradual decoupling of the transition into sexual activity and marriage among young women. We investigate recent trends in the transition into first sex and marriage among three cohorts of Ethiopian women. Methods Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) we estimate survival curves and discrete-time hazards models to examine recent trends in age at first sex and first marriage among women ages 20–29. Results Across the three survey years the median age at first sex has remained relatively stable at 17 years, although the median age at marriage has increased from 17 to 18 years between the 2005 and 2011 surveys. Net of the effects of education and place of residence, there is evidence of a slight trend away from premarital first sex to sexual initiation in the context of marriage. However, among the most educated women and women living in urban areas (who are a small minority of women), there is a much greater tendency to initiate sexual activity outside of marriage compared to women with little schooling and women living in rural areas, and once they have begun sexual activity they tend to wait longer before they get married. We also find evidence in the most recent survey that women who have first sexual intercourse before marriage are delaying marriage more than was the case among earlier cohorts. PMID:27011431

Trends of Modern Contraceptive Use among Young Married Women Based on the 2000, 2005, and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys: A Multivariate Decomposition Analysis

PubMed Central

Worku, Abebaw Gebeyehu; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Zeleke, Atinkut Alamirrew

2015-01-01

Introduction Accessing family planning can reduce a significant proportion of maternal, infant, and childhood deaths. In Ethiopia, use of modern contraceptive methods is low but it is increasing. This study aimed to analyze the trends and determinants of changes in modern contraceptive use over time among young married women in Ethiopia. Methods The study used data from the three Demographic Health Surveys conducted in Ethiopia, in 2000, 2005, and 2011. Young married women age 15–24 years with sample sizes of 2,157 in 2000, 1,904 in 2005, and 2,146 in 2011 were included. Logit-based decomposition analysis technique was used for analysis of factors contributing to the recent changes. STATA 12 was employed for data management and analyses. All calculations presented in this paper were weighted for the sampling probabilities and non-response. Complex sampling procedures were also considered during testing of statistical significance. Results Among young married women, modern contraceptive prevalence increased from 6% in 2000 to 16% in 2005 and to 36% in 2011. The decomposition analysis indicated that 34% of the overall change in modern contraceptive use was due to difference in women’s characteristics. Changes in the composition of young women’s characteristics according to age, educational status, religion, couple concordance on family size, and fertility preference were the major sources of this increase. Two-thirds of the increase in modern contraceptive use was due to difference in coefficients. Most importantly, the increase was due to change in contraceptive use behavior among the rural population (33%) and among Orthodox Christians (16%) and Protestants (4%). Conclusions Modern contraceptive use among young married women has showed a remarkable increase over the last decade in Ethiopia. Programmatic interventions targeting poor, younger (adolescent), illiterate, and Muslim women would help to maintain the increasing trend in modern contraceptive use. PMID:25635389

Analysis of the Junction of the East African Rift and the Cretaceous-Paleogene Rifts in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariita, N. O.; Tadesse, K.; Keller, G. R.

2003-12-01

The East African rift (EAR) is a Tertiary-Miocene system that extends from the Middle East, through East Africa, to Mozambique in southern Africa. Much of the present information is from the Ethiopian and Kenyan parts of the rift. Several characteristics of the EAR such as rift-related volcanism, faulting and topographic relief being exposed make it attractive for studying continental rift processes. Structural complexities reflected in the geometries of grabens and half-grabens, the existence of transverse fault zones and accommodation zones, and the influence of pre-existing geologic structures have been documented. In particular, the EAR traverses the Anza graben and related structures near the Kenya/Ethiopian border. The Anza graben is one in a series of Cretaceous-Paleogene failed rifts that trend across Central Africa from Nigeria through Chad to Sudan and Kenya with an overall northwest-southeast trend. In spite of a number of recent studies, we do not understand the interaction of these two rift systems. In both Ethiopia and Kenya, the rift segments share some broad similarities in timing and are related in a geographic sense. For example, volcanism appears to have generally preceded or in some cases have been contemporaneous with major rift faulting. Although, these segments are distinct entities, each with its own tectonic and magmatic evolution, and they do connect in the region crossed by the Anza graben and related structures. In our present study, we are using a combination of recently collected seismic, gravity and remote sensing data to increase our understanding of these two segments of the EAR. We hope that by analysing the satellite data, the variety and differences in the volume of magmatic products extruded along in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya will be identified. The geometry of structures (in particular, those causing the gravity axial high) will be modelled to study the impact of the older Anza graben structural trends with the younger EAR. For example there is significant crustal thinning in the Lake Turkana area of the northern Kenya segment of the EAR system. In regard to the recent EAGLE experiment in Ethiopia, we are ivestigating if the transition from relatively thick crust (~40 km) to thinned, rifted crust is as abrupt in Ethiopia as it is in Kenya.

Magnitude of, trends in, and associated factors of road traffic collision in central Ethiopia.

PubMed

Asefa, Fekede; Assefa, Demeke; Tesfaye, Gezahegn

2014-10-15

Road traffic collision (RTC) is one of many public health problems. Globally, about 1.2 million people die due to RTCs every year. Of these, 85% reside in low- and middle-income countries. Despite low road network density and vehicle ownership, Ethiopia has a relatively high collision record. Collisions in the Addis Ababa and Oromia Regions account for 58% of all fatal collisions in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the magnitude of, trends in and factors associated with RTCs in central Ethiopia. A retrospective study was conducted using relevant police reports obtained from eight police stations found between Akaki and Adama towns located in central Ethiopia. The study included reports from July 2007 to June 2012. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques were employed, and bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with the RTCs. From July 2007 to June 2012, 2,335 collisions were registered, though the outcomes of 24 of these crashes were not recorded. Among these collisions, 389 (16.7%) resulted in death, 316 (13.5%) brought about severe injuries, 290 (12.4%) caused slight injuries, and 1,316 (56.4%) caused property damage. These collisions affected about 1,745 individuals. While 515 (29.5%) people died, 549 (31.5%) were severely injured, and the remaining 681 (39%) were slightly injured. Driving at midnight [AOR 1.67, 95% CI; 1.2-2.4], driving above the speed limit [AOR 5.3, 95% CI; 2.9-9.6], failing to give priority for other vehicles and pedestrians [AOR 5.03, 95% CI; 2.3-9.3], and vehicular technical problems [AOR 19, 95% CI; 6.4-56] were determinants of RTC fatality. RTCs steadily increased in the study area over this period of time. This calls for urgent interventions. Ensuring that drivers obey traffic rules and enforcing the speed limit appear to be the most critical parts of necessary interventions.

Rapid Increase in Ownership and Use of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets and Decrease in Prevalence of Malaria in Three Regional States of Ethiopia (2006-2007)

PubMed Central

Shargie, Estifanos Biru; Ngondi, Jeremiah; Graves, Patricia M.; Getachew, Asefaw; Hwang, Jimee; Gebre, Teshome; Mosher, Aryc W.; Ceccato, Pietro; Endeshaw, Tekola; Jima, Daddi; Tadesse, Zerihun; Tenaw, Eskindir; Reithinger, Richard; Emerson, Paul M.; Richards, Frank O.; Ghebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom

2010-01-01

Following recent large scale-up of malaria control interventions in Ethiopia, this study aimed to compare ownership and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN), and the change in malaria prevalence using two population-based household surveys in three regions of the country. Each survey used multistage cluster random sampling with 25 households per cluster. Household net ownership tripled from 19.6% in 2006 to 68.4% in 2007, with mean LLIN per household increasing from 0.3 to 1.2. Net use overall more than doubled from 15.3% to 34.5%, but in households owning LLIN, use declined from 71.7% to 48.3%. Parasitemia declined from 4.1% to 0.4%. Large scale-up of net ownership over a short period of time was possible. However, a large increase in net ownership was not necessarily mirrored directly by increased net use. Better targeting of nets to malaria-risk areas and sustained behavioural change communication are needed to increase and maintain net use. PMID:20936103

Tetanus in Ethiopia: unveiling the blight of an entirely vaccine-preventable disease.

PubMed

Woldeamanuel, Yohannes Woubishet

2012-12-01

Today, tetanus exacts its toll only in resource-poor countries like Ethiopia. Agrarian rural life with limited vaccine typifies tetanus risk in Ethiopia where current tetanus control trends on expanding infant immunization and eliminating highly prevalent maternal and neonatal tetanus (MNT). Protection by infant tetanus immunization primers disappears within an average of 3 years, if not followed by boosters. Second-year of life, school-based, and universal 10-yearly tetanus immunizations need to be supplemented. Facility-based reviews in Ethiopia reveal a continued burden of tetanus at tertiary-level hospitals where ICU care is suboptimal. Quality of medical care for tetanus is low - reflected by high case-fatality-rates. Opportunities at primary-health-care-units (antenatal-care, family planning, abortion, wound-care, tetanus-survivors) need to be fully-utilized to expand tetanus immunization. Prompt wound-care with post-exposure prophylaxis and proper footwear must be promoted. Standard ICU care needs to exist. Realization of cold-chain-flexible, needle-less and mono-dose vaccine programs allow avoiding boosters, vaccine-refrigeration, and improve compliance.

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

Rainfall and runoff variability in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billi, Paolo; Fazzini, Massimiliano; Tadesse Alemu, Yonas; Ciampalini, Rossano

2014-05-01

Rainfall and river flow variability have been deeply investigated and and the impact of climate change on both is rather well known in Europe (EEA, 2012) or in other industrialized countries. Reports of international organizations (IPCC, 2012) and the scientific literature provide results and outlooks that were found contrasting and spatially incoherent (Manton et al., 2001; Peterson et al., 2002; Griffiths et al., 2003; Herath and Ratnayake, 2004) or weakened by limitation of data quality and quantity. According to IPCC (2012), in East Africa precipitation there are contrasting regional and seasonal variations and trends, though Easterling et al. (2000) and Seleshi and Camberlin (2006) report decreasing trends in heavy precipitation over parts of Ethiopia during the period 1965-2002. Literature on the impact of climate change on river flow is scarce in Africa and IPCC Technical Paper VI (IPCC, 2008) concluded that no evidence, based on instrumental records, has been found for a climate-driven globally widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades (Rosenzweig et al., 2007), though increases in runoff and increased risk of flood events in East Africa are expected. Some papers have faced issues regarding rainfall and river flow variability in Ethiopia (e.g. Seleshi and Demaree, 1995; Osman and Sauerborn, 2002; Seleshi and Zanke, 2004; Meze-Hausken, 2004; Korecha and Barnston, 2006; Cheung et al., 2008) but their investigations are commonly geographically limited or used a small number of rain and flow gauges with the most recent data bound to the beginning of the last decade. In this study an attempt to depict rainfall and river flow variability, considering the longer as possible time series for the largest as possible number of meteo-stations and flow gauge evenly distributed across Ethiopia, is presented. 25 meteo-stations and 21 flow gauges with as much as possible continuous data records were selected. The length of the time series ranges between 35 to 50 and 9 to 49 years for rainfall and river flow, respectively. In order to improve the poor linear correlation model to describe rainfall gradient with altitude a simple topographic parameter is introduced capable to better depict the spatial variability of annual rainfall and its coefficient of variation. The small rains (Belg) were found to be much more unpredictable than the long, monsoon-type rains (Kiremt) and hence much more out of phase with the variation of annual precipitation amount that is significantly influenced by the Kiremt rains. In order to investigate the long term trends, rainfall anomalies were calculated as Z score for annual, Belg and Kiremt precipitation for all the stations and average values are calculated and plotted against time. The three Z trend lines obtained show no marked deviation from the mean as only an almost negligible decreasing trend is observed. Rainfall intensity in 24 hours is analyzed and the trend line of the maximum intensity averaged over the maximum value of each year recorded at each meteo-station is constructed. These data indicate a general decrease in daily rainfall intensity across Ethiopia with clear exceptions in a few selected areas. The same procedure, based on the Z scores, used to analyze rainfall variability is applied also to the river flow data and a similar result is obtained. If compared with rainfall, annual runoff shows a much wider range of variation among the study rivers. This issue is discussed and possible explanations are presented.

Male and female Ethiopian and Kenyan runners are the fastest and the youngest in both half and full marathon.

PubMed

Knechtle, Beat; Nikolaidis, Pantelis T; Onywera, Vincent O; Zingg, Matthias A; Rosemann, Thomas; Rüst, Christoph A

2016-01-01

In major marathon races such as the 'World Marathon Majors', female and male East African runners particularly from Ethiopia and Kenya are the fastest. However, whether this trend appears for female and male Ethiopians and Kenyans at recreational level runners (i.e. races at national level) and in shorter road races (e.g. in half-marathon races) has not been studied yet. Thus, the aim of the present study was to examine differences in the performance and the age of female and male runners from East Africa (i.e. Ethiopians and Kenyans) between half- and full marathons. Data from 508,108 athletes (125,894 female and 328,430 male half-marathoners and 10,205 female and 43,489 male marathoners) originating from 126 countries and competing between 1999 and 2014 in all road-based half-marathons and marathons held in one country (Switzerland) were analysed using Chi square (χ(2)) tests, mixed-effects regression analyses and one-way analyses of variance. In half-marathons, 48 women (0.038 %) and 63 men (0.019 %) were from Ethiopia and 80 women (0.063 %) and 134 men (0.040 %) from Kenya. In marathons, three women (0.029 %) and 15 men (0.034 %) were from Ethiopia and two women (0.019 %) and 33 men (0.075 %) from Kenya. There was no statistically significant association between the nationality of East Africans and the format of a race. In both women and men, the fastest race times in half-marathons and marathons were achieved by East African runners (p < 0.001). Ethiopian and Kenyan runners were the youngest in both sexes and formats of race (p < 0.001). In summary, women and men from Ethiopia and Kenya, despite they accounted for <0.1 % in half-marathons and marathons, achieved the fastest race times and were the youngest in both half-marathons and marathons. These findings confirmed in the case of half-marathon the trend previously observed in marathon races for a better performance and a younger age in East African runners from Ethiopia and Kenya.

In Pursuit of the African PhD: A Critical Survey of Emergent Policy Issues in Select Sub-Saharan African Nations, Ethiopia, Ghana and South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molla, Tebeje; Cuthbert, Denise

2016-01-01

After decades of decline, African higher education is now arguably in a new era of revival. With the prevalence of knowledge economy discourse, national governments in Africa and their development partners have increasingly aligned higher education with poverty reduction plans and strategies. Research capacity has become a critical development…

Trends in Innovation: Basic Education in Africa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartels, Francis L.

A comparative study is reported of basic education in 10 African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, Benin, Mali, Upper Volta, and Angola. Basic education is defined as learning experiences to which all citizens are entitled or which are required to help them develop their potential to function effectively as individuals…

Child health in arid areas of Ethiopia: longitudinal study of the morbidity in infectious diseases.

PubMed

Lindtjørn, B; Alemu, T; Bjorvatn, B

1992-01-01

We describe the incidence of some childhood infections in drought prone areas of southern Ethiopia. Our results are based on 24 months' biweekly observations of 828 children aged 0-5 years in the pastoralist community of Dubluk and the agricultural community of Elka. An average of 23% of the children in Dubluk and 13% in Elka were sick during any 2-week period. Diarrhoeal diseases represented the main cause of morbidity, but the yearly number of diarrhoeal episodes were lower than previously reported from Ethiopia. Respiratory tract infections and to a lesser extent diarrhoeal diseases, showed highest incidence rates during the main dry season. The highest incidence of lower respiratory tract infections coincided with an outbreak of measles. In Dubluk, children who lived near to the wells had higher incidence rates than those who lived further away, probably reflecting the importance of crowding on transmission rates. In Elka, literacy of mothers was associated with reduced incidence of both diarrhoeal and respiratory tract infections, whereas the use of open pit latrines was associated with increased diarrhoeal incidence. The decline in disease incidence in this region during the last months of our study may reflect an improvement of nutritional status.

Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muluneh, Alemayehu; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Keesstra, Saskia; Stroosnijder, Leo

2017-05-01

Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970-2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June-September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7-35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

Toward a workable biosafety system for regulating genetically modified organisms in Ethiopia: balancing conservation and competitiveness.

PubMed

Abraham, Adane

2013-01-01

On September 9, 2009, Ethiopia enacted a highly restrictive biosafety law firmly based on precautionary principles as a foundation for its GMO regulation system. Its drafting process, led by the country's Environmental Protection Authority, was judged as biased, focusing only on protecting the environment from perceived risks, giving little attention to potential benefits of GMOs. Many of its provisions are very stringent, exceeding those of Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, while others cannot be fulfilled by applicants, collectively rendering the emerged biosafety system unworkable. These provisions include requirements for advance informed agreement and rigorous socioeconomic assessment in risk evaluation for all GMO transactions, including contained research use-which requires the head of the competent national authority of the exporting country to take full responsibility for GMO-related information provided-and stringent labeling, insurance and monitoring requirements for all GMO activities. Furthermore, there is no provision to establish an independent national biosafety decision-making body(ies). As a result, foreign technology owners that provide highly demanded technologies like Bt cotton declined to work with Ethiopia. There is a fear that the emerged biosafety system might also continue to suppress domestic genetic engineering research and development. Thus, to benefit from GMOs, Ethiopia has to revise its biosafety system, primarily by making changes to some provisions of the law in a way that balances its diverse interests of conserving biodiversity, protecting the environment and enhancing competition in agricultural and other economic sectors.

Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the central rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions-the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers' perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers' perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new risks outside the range of current experiences. To enable farmers to adapt to these impacts critical technological, institutional, and market-access constraints need to be removed. Inconsistencies between farmers’ perceptions and observed climate trends (e.g., decrease in annual rainfall) could lead to sub-optimal or counterproductive adaptations, and therefore must be removed by better communication and capacity building, for example through Climate Field Schools. Enabling strategies, which are among others targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access, and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become integral part of government policies to assist farmers to adapt to the impacts of current and future climate change.

BURDEN OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG STUDENTS IN TWO ETHIOPIAN UNIVERSITIES

PubMed Central

Mekonnen, Abiyu; Petros, Beyene

2017-01-01

Introduction Tuberculosis outbreaks emerge occasionally in long-term care facilities and various educational establishments. This study was designed to determine the five year overall prevalence and trend of tuberculosis and associated factors among students at Adama Science and Technology University and Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus. Methods A five-year retrospective study was conducted on students medical records of tuberculosis Directly Observed Treatment Short Course clinics from September 2009 – July 2014. The overall prevalence and the trend of smear positive, smear negative and extra pulmonary tuberculosis cases was determined. Odds ratio with 95 percent confidence interval was calculated for categorical variables using a multivariate logistic regression model to assess the strength of association. Results A total of 112 and 263 tuberculos cases were recorded in Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus and Adama Science and Technology University, respectively. The mean proportion of tuberculosis cases of all types among the total number of students enrolled at Adama Science and Technology University and Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus was 1098.1 and 511.7 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in prevalence of tuberculosis among students in Adama Science and Technology University compared to that in Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus [adjusted odds ration: 2.881, 95% CI (1.76–4.71)]. The trend of tuberculosis prevalence showed a steady decline from the first to the last year of the study period. Conclusion The number of tuberculosis cases observed among university students in this study was high. Governmental and nongovernmental agencies involved in tuberculosis control must consider higher education institutions as focal points for prevention and elimination of tuberculosis in Ethiopia. PMID:29115116

BURDEN OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG STUDENTS IN TWO ETHIOPIAN UNIVERSITIES.

PubMed

Mekonnen, Abiyu; Petros, Beyene

2016-10-01

Tuberculosis outbreaks emerge occasionally in long-term care facilities and various educational establishments. This study was designed to determine the five year overall prevalence and trend of tuberculosis and associated factors among students at Adama Science and Technology University and Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus. A five-year retrospective study was conducted on students’ medical records of tuberculosis Directly Observed Treatment Short Course clinics from September 2009– July 2014. The overall prevalence and the trend of smear positive, smear negative and extra pulmonary tuberculosis cases was determined. Odds ratio with 95 percent confidence interval was calculated for categorical variables using a multivariate logistic regression model to assess the strength of association. A total of 112 and 263 tuberculos cases were recorded in Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus and Adama Science and Technology University, respectively. The mean proportion of tuberculosis cases of all types among the total number of students enrolled at Adama Science and Technology University and Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus was 1098.1 and 511.7 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in prevalence of tuberculosis among students in Adama Science and Technology University compared to that in Addis Ababa University Sidist Kilo campus [adjusted odds ration: 2.881, 95% CI (1.76-4.71)]. The trend of tuberculosis prevalence showed a steady decline from the first to the last year of the study period. The number of tuberculosis cases observed among university students in this study was high. Governmental and nongovernmental agencies involved in tuberculosis control must consider higher education institutions as focal points for prevention and elimination of tuberculosis in Ethiopia.

Four Years of Farmer Experimentation on Soil Fertility in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: Trends in Research Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraaijvanger, Richard G.; Veldkamp, Tom

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper analyses research strategies followed by farmer groups in Tigray, that were involved in participatory experimentation. Understanding choices made by farmers in such experimentation processes is important to understand reasons why farmers in Tigray often hesitated to adopt recommended practices. Design/Methodology/Approach: A…

Energy and the agroeconomic complexity of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karakatsanis, Georgios

2016-04-01

Since the Industrial Revolution, modern agriculture has transformed from a net energy supplier to a net energy user, via the extensive use fossil fuels -that substituted solar energy inputs- and petroleum derivative products (fertilizers) (Pimentel and Pimentel 2008; Woods et al. 2010). This condenses a significant overview of agricultural energetics, especially for economies set on their first stage of development, growth and economic diversification, such as Ethiopia. Ethiopia is the Blue Nile's most upstream country, constituting a very sensitive hydroclimatic area. Since 2008, Ethiopian agriculture experiences a boost in energy use and agricultural value-added per worker, due to the rapid introduction of oil-fueled agricultural machinery that increased productivity and allowed crop diversification. Agriculture in Ethiopia accounts for ~82% of its total exports, ~45% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and ~75% of its total labor force. In addition, Ethiopia's agricultural sector is equipped with a set of new financial tools to deal with hydroclimatic extremes, like the 1983-85 droughts that deteriorated its crop output, causing a devastating famine. In fact, Ethiopia's resilience from the (most) recent drought (2015-16) has been remarkable. These facts signify that Ethiopia satisfies the necessary conditions to become a regional agritrade gravity center in the Blue Nile, granted that the dispersion of agricultural trade comprises a primary tool for securing food supply. As gravity equations have been used to model global trade webs (Tinbergen 1962), similar principles may apply to agritrade as well, for identifying emergent topological structures and supply chains. By examining the relation between energy inputs in agriculture with crop diversification and value-added chains of Ethiopia's agritrade, we could extract accurate information on the importance of energy for the country's agroeconomic complexity and regionalization trend across its first stages of development. Via the use of entropy we may identify patterns of agritrade agglomeration or dispersal; alternatively study the continuity or fragmentation of Ethiopia's agritrade gravity field. Agglomeration towards Ethiopian agricultural supply would indicate the upgrade of the country's supply stability and -therefore- importance in the global agritrade web. Keywords: Industrial Revolution, net energy, diversification, Blue Nile, hydroclimatic extremes, agritrade, gravity, value-added, complexity, regionalization, entropy References 1. Tinbergen, J. (1962), Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy, The Twentieth Century Fund, New York 2. Pimentel, David and Marcia H. Pimentel (2008), Food, Energy and Society (3rd Ed.), CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group 3. Woods, Jeremy et al. (2010), Energy and the food system, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365, 2991-3006

Systematic review on traditional medicinal plants used for the treatment of malaria in Ethiopia: trends and perspectives.

PubMed

Alebie, Getachew; Urga, Befikadu; Worku, Amha

2017-08-01

Ethiopia is endowed with abundant medicinal plant resources and traditional medicinal practices. However, available research evidence on indigenous anti-malarial plants is highly fragmented in the country. The present systematic review attempted to explore, synthesize and compile ethno-medicinal research evidence on anti-malarial medicinal plants in Ethiopia. A systematic web search analysis and review was conducted on research literature pertaining to medicinal plants used for traditional malaria treatment in Ethiopia. Data were collected from a total of 82 Ethiopian studies meeting specific inclusion criteria including published research articles and unpublished thesis reports. SPSS Version 16 was used to summarize relevant ethno-botanical/medicinal information using descriptive statistics, frequency, percentage, tables, and bar graphs. A total of 200 different plant species (from 71 families) used for traditional malaria treatment were identified in different parts of Ethiopia. Distribution and usage pattern of anti-malarial plants showed substantial variability across different geographic settings. A higher diversity of anti-malarial plants was reported from western and southwestern parts of the country. Analysis of ethno-medicinal recipes indicated that mainly fresh leaves were used for preparation of remedies. Decoction, concoction and eating/chewing were found to be the most frequently employed herbal remedy preparation methods. Notably, anti-malarial herbal remedies were administered by oral route. Information on potential side effects of anti-malarial herbal preparations was patchy. However, some anti-malarial plants were reported to have potentially serious side effects using different local antidotes and some specific contra-indications. The study highlighted a rich diversity of indigenous anti-malarial medicinal plants with equally divergent herbal remedy preparation and use pattern in Ethiopia. Baseline information gaps were observed in key geographic settings. Likewise, herbal remedy toxicity risks and countermeasures generally entailed more exhaustive investigation. Experimental research and advanced chemical analysis are also required to validate the therapeutic potential of anti-malarial compounds from promising plant species.

Industry contributions to aggregate workplace injury and illness rate trends: 1992-2008.

PubMed

Ruser, John W

2014-10-01

Aggregate workplace injury and illness rates have generally declined over the past quarter century. Assessing which industries contributed to these declines is hampered by industry coding changes that broke time series data. Ratios were estimated to convert older incidence rate data to current industry codes and to create long industry time series from data of the BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses. These data were used to assess contributions to aggregate trends from within-industry incidence rate trends and across-industry hours shifts. Hours shifts toward safer industries do not explain aggregate incidence rate declines. Rather declines resulted from within-industry declines. The top 20 contributors out of 307 industries account for 40 percent of the decline and include both goods-producing and service-providing industries. These data help focus future research on industries responsible for rate declines and factors hypothesized as contributing to declines. © Published 2014 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-12-01

The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through water transfer from sub-basin having more available water in small area to the sub-basin having less available water in a larger agricultural area.

The effect of submerged aquatic vegetation expansion on a declining turbidity trend in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestir, E.L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Jonathan Greenberg,; Morgan-King, Tara L.; Ustin, S.L.

2016-01-01

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) has well-documented effects on water clarity. SAV beds can slow water movement and reduce bed shear stress, promoting sedimentation and reducing suspension. However, estuaries have multiple controls on turbidity that make it difficult to determine the effect of SAV on water clarity. In this study, we investigated the effect of primarily invasive SAV expansion on a concomitant decline in turbidity in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The objective of this study was to separate the effects of decreasing sediment supply from the watershed from increasing SAV cover to determine the effect of SAV on the declining turbidity trend. SAV cover was determined by airborne hyperspectral remote sensing and turbidity data from long-term monitoring records. The turbidity trends were corrected for the declining sediment supply using suspended-sediment concentration data from a station immediately upstream of the Delta. We found a significant negative trend in turbidity from 1975 to 2008, and when we removed the sediment supply signal from the trend it was still significant and negative, indicating that a factor other than sediment supply was responsible for part of the turbidity decline. Turbidity monitoring stations with high rates of SAV expansion had steeper and more significant turbidity trends than those with low SAV cover. Our findings suggest that SAV is an important (but not sole) factor in the turbidity decline, and we estimate that 21–70 % of the total declining turbidity trend is due to SAV expansion.

Household capacities, vulnerabilities and food insecurity: shifts in food insecurity in urban and rural Ethiopia during the 2008 food crisis.

PubMed

Hadley, Craig; Linzer, Drew A; Belachew, Tefera; Mariam, Abebe Gebre; Tessema, Fasil; Lindstrom, David

2011-11-01

The global food crisis of 2008 led to renewed interest in global food insecurity and how macro-level food prices impact household and individual level wellbeing. There is debate over the extent to which food price increases in 2008 eroded food security, the extent to which this effect was distributed across rural and urban locales, and the extent to which rural farmers might have benefited. Ethiopia's food prices increased particularly dramatically between 2005 and 2008 and here we ask whether there was a concomitant increase in household food insecurity, whether this decline was distributed equally across rural, urban, and semi-urban locales, and to what extent pre-crisis household capacities and vulnerabilities impacted 2008 household food insecurity levels. Data are drawn from a random sample of 2610 households in Southwest Ethiopia surveyed 2005/6 and again in mid to late 2008. Results show broad deterioration of household food insecurity relative to baseline but declines were most pronounced in the rural areas. Wealthier households and those that were relatively more food secure in 2005/6 tended to be more food secure in 2008, net of other factors, and these effects were most pronounced in urban areas. External shocks, such as a job loss or loss of crops, experienced by households were also associated with worse food insecurity in 2008 but few other household variables were associated with 2008 food insecurity. Our results also showed that rural farmers tended to produce small amounts for sale on markets, and thus were not able to enjoy the potential benefits that come from greater crop prices. We conclude that poverty, and not urban/rural difference, is the important variable for understanding the risk of food insecurity during a food crisis and that many rural farmers are too poor to take advantage of rapid rises in food prices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth, Distribution, and Poverty in Africa: Messages from the 1990s. Poverty Dynamics in Africa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christiaensen, Luc; Demery, Lionel; Paternostro, Stefano

This book reviews trends in household well-being in Africa during the 1990s. Using the better data sets now available, the main factors behind observed poverty changes are examined in eight countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauritania, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. A broad view of poverty is taken, which includes income poverty and…

Survey trends of North American shorebirds: Population declines or shifting distributions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Brown, Stephen; Harrington, Brian A.; Morrison, R.I. Guy

2007-01-01

We analyzed data from two surveys of fall migrating shorebirds in central and eastern North America to estimate annual trends in means per survey and to determine whether trends indicate a change in population size or might have been caused by other factors. The analysis showed a broad decline in means per survey in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States (North Atlantic region). For example, 9 of 9 significant trends in this region were <1 (P=0.004), and the mean, annual rate of change among 30 species was 0.9783, a decline of −2.17% per year (P<0.001). Trends in the midwestern United States (Midwest region) showed no clear pattern. The mean among 29 species was 1.0090 (P=0.35). Only 4 of the trends were significant. Several hypotheses were evaluated to identify causes of the declining means per survey in the North Atlantic region. The most likely hypothesis appears to be a decline in the breeding populations that supply migrants to the North Atlantic region, but a change in movements, for example passing through the region more quickly in recent years, cannot be excluded as an explanation. Further surveys of arctic breeding areas coupled with analysis of long‐term survey data from western North America would be helpful in determining whether the declines found in this analysis are also occurring in other areas.

Effectiveness of supportive supervision on the consistency of integrated community cases management skills of the health extension workers in 113 districts of Ethiopia.

PubMed

Ameha, Agazi; Karim, Ali Mehryar; Erbo, Amano; Ashenafi, Addis; Hailu, Mulu; Hailu, Berhan; Folla, Abebe; Bizuwork, Simret; Betemariam, Wuleta

2014-10-01

Consistency in the adherence to integrated Community Case Management (iCCM) protocols for common childhood illnesses provided by Ethiopia's Health Extension Program (HEP) frontline workers. One approach is to provide regular clinical mentoring to the frontline health workers of the HEP at their health posts (HP) through supportive supervision (SS) following the initial training. To Assess the effectiveness of visits to improve the consistency of iCCM skills (CoS) of the HEWs in 113 districts in Ethiopia. We analyzed data from 3,909 supportive supervision visits between January 2011 and June 2013 in 113 districts in Ethiopia. From case assessment registers, a health post was classified as consistent in managing pneumonia, malaria, or diarrhea cases if the disease classification, treatment, and follow-up of the last two cases managed at the health posts were consistent with the protocol. We used regression models to assess the effects of SS on CoS. All HPs (2,368) received at least one supportive supervision visit, 41% received two, and 15% received more than two. During the observation period, HP management consistency in pneumonia, malaria, and diarrhea increased by 3.0, 2.7 and 4.4-fold, respectively. After controlling for secular trend and other factors, significant dose-response relationships were observed between number of SS visits and CoS indicators. The SS visits following the initial training were effective in improving the CoS.

Neutropenia and eosinophilia among Ethiopian immigrants to Israel: Familial or environmental?

PubMed

Tandeter, Howard; Glick, Karina; Moser, Asher

2016-12-01

Due to trends of population movements, Israeli family physicians are treating increasing numbers of African immigrants from Ethiopia. These immigrants were found to have complete blood counts (CBC) that are different from other ethnic groups, with a higher prevalence of eosinophilia and neutropenia. To evaluate haematological findings in an attempt to define whether they behave as familial (genetic) or environmental. Retrospective chart review of 300 patients from a primary care clinic: 100 individuals of Ethiopian heritage born in Ethiopia (EE); 100 individuals of Ethiopian heritage born in Israel, whose parents were born in Ethiopia (EI), and a control group of 100 patients who were not of Ethiopian heritage (C). Absolute eosinophilia (greater than 500/dl) was found in 13% of the EE study group significantly higher than the two other groups (P < 0.05), with no difference between EI and C. neutropenia (defined as less than 1500/dl) was found in 32% of EE group, 20% of EI, and 1% of C (P < 0.01). On the one hand, findings point to a marked environmental influence on the eosinophilic response (most probably due to intestinal parasites present in immigrants from Ethiopia). On the other hand, a familial-genetic nature is probably the reason for the higher prevalence of neutropenia in this population, although some environmental influence may play a role. The knowledge of these findings may be useful for physicians treating people migrating from Africa.

Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Bradfield; Dinku, Tufa; Raman, Anita; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2017-06-01

While the effect of climate change on the prevalence of malaria in the highlands of Eastern Africa has been the topic of protracted debate, temperature is widely accepted as a fundamentally important environmental factor constraining its transmission. Air temperatures below approximately 18 °C and 15 °C, respectively, prohibit the development of the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasites responsible for the majority of malaria cases in Ethiopia. Low temperatures also impede the development rates of the Anopheles mosquito vectors. While locations of sufficiently high elevation have temperatures below these transmission thresholds, a fundamental question is how such temperature ‘threshold elevations’ are changing with time. A lack of high quality, high spatial resolution climate data has previously prohibited a rigorous investigation. Using a newly developed national temperature dataset for Ethiopia that combines numerous in-situ surface observations with downscaled reanalysis data, we here identify statistically significant increases in elevation for both the 18 °C and 15 °C thresholds in highland areas between 1981-2014. Substantial interannual and spatial variations in threshold elevations are identified, the former associated with the El Niño Southern-Oscillation and the latter with the complex climate of the region. The estimated population in locations with an upward trend in the 15 °C threshold elevation is approximately 6.5 million people (2.2 million for 18 °C). While not a direct prediction of the additional population made vulnerable to malaria through a shift to higher temperature, our results underscore a newly acquired ability to investigate climate variability and trends at fine spatial scales across Ethiopia, including changes in a fundamental constraint on malaria transmission in the Ethiopian Highlands.

Antihypertensive treatment and US trends in stroke mortality, 1962 to 1980.

PubMed Central

Casper, M; Wing, S; Strogatz, D; Davis, C E; Tyroler, H A

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study examines the association between increases in antihypertensive pharmacotherapy and declines in stroke mortality among 96 US groups stratified by race, sex, age, metropolitan status, and region from 1962 to 1980. METHODS. Data on the prevalence of controlled hypertension and socioeconomic profiles were obtained from three successive national health surveys. Stroke mortality rates were calculated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Bureau of the Census. The association between controlled hypertension trends and stroke mortality declines was assessed with weighted regression. RESULTS. Prior to 1972, there was no association between trends in controlled hypertension and stroke mortality declines (beta = 0.04, P = .69). After 1972, groups with larger increases in controlled hypertension experienced slower rates of decline in stroke mortality (beta = 0.16, P = .003). Faster rates of decline were modestly but consistently related to improvements in socioeconomic indicators only for the post-1972 period. CONCLUSIONS. These results do not support the hypothesis that increased antihypertensive pharmacotherapy has been the primary determinant of recent declines in stroke mortality. Additional studies should address the association between declining stroke mortality and trends in socioeconomic resources, dietary patterns, and cigarette smoking. PMID:1456333

Response of Groundwater table to Eucalyptus Plantations in a Tropical Monsoon Climate, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enku, Temesgen; Melesse, Assefa; Ayana, Essaya; Tilahun, Seifu; Abate, Mengiste; Steenhuis, Tammo

2017-04-01

Given the increasing demand for water resources and the need for better management of regional water resources, it is essential to quantify the groundwater use by phreatophytes in tropical monsoon climates. Phreatophytes, like eucalyptus plantations are reported to be a groundwater sink and it could significantly affect the regional groundwater resources. In our study, the consumptive groundwater use of a closed eucalyptus plantation was calculated based on the diurnal water table fluctuations observed in monitoring wells for two dry monsoon phases in the Fogera plain, northwest of Ethiopia. Automated recorders were installed to monitor the hourly groundwater table fluctuations. The groundwater table fluctuates from maximum at early in the morning to minimum in the evening daily and generally declined linearly during the dry phase averaging 3.1 cm/day during the two year period under the eucalyptus plantations. The hourly eucalypts transpiration rate over the daylight hours follows the daily solar irradiance curve for clear sky days. It is minimal during the night and reaches maximum of 1.65mm/hour at mid-day. The evapotranspiration from the groundwater by eucalyptus plantations during the dry phases was estimated at about 2300mm from October 1 to 31 May, in 2015 compared to about 900mm without eucalyptus trees. The average daily evapotranspiration was 9.6mm. This is almost twice of the reference evapotranspiration in the area and 2.5 times the actual rate under fallow agricultural fields. Thus, water resources planning and management in the region needs to consider the effect of eucalyptus plantations on the availability of groundwater resources in the highlands of Ethiopia. Key words: Eucalyptus, Evapotranspiration, Groundwater, Ethiopia, Lake Tana

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

2013-01-01

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

Malaria in the Americas: trends from 1959 to 2011.

PubMed

Carter, Keith H; Singh, Prabhjot; Mujica, Oscar J; Escalada, Rainier P; Ade, Maria Paz; Castellanos, Luis Gerardo; Espinal, Marcos A

2015-02-01

Malaria has declined in recent years in countries of the American continents. In 2011, 12 of 21 endemic countries had already met their 2015 Millennium Development Goal. However, this declining trend has not been adequately evaluated. An analysis of the number of cases per 100,000 people (annual parasite index [API]) and the percentage of positive blood slides (slide positivity rate [SPR]) during the period of 1959-2011 in 21 endemic countries was done using the joinpoint regression methodology. During 1960-1979, API and SPR increased significantly and peaked in the 1980s. Since the 1990s, there have been significant declining trends in both API and SPR. Additionally, both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum species-specific incidence have declined. With the exception of two countries, such a collectively declining malaria trend was not observed in previous decades. This presents a unique opportunity for the Americas to seriously consider malaria elimination as a final goal. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Malaria in the Americas: Trends from 1959 to 2011

PubMed Central

Carter, Keith H.; Singh, Prabhjot; Mujica, Oscar J.; Escalada, Rainier P.; Ade, Maria Paz; Castellanos, Luis Gerardo; Espinal, Marcos A.

2015-01-01

Malaria has declined in recent years in countries of the American continents. In 2011, 12 of 21 endemic countries had already met their 2015 Millennium Development Goal. However, this declining trend has not been adequately evaluated. An analysis of the number of cases per 100,000 people (annual parasite index [API]) and the percentage of positive blood slides (slide positivity rate [SPR]) during the period of 1959–2011 in 21 endemic countries was done using the joinpoint regression methodology. During 1960–1979, API and SPR increased significantly and peaked in the 1980s. Since the 1990s, there have been significant declining trends in both API and SPR. Additionally, both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum species-specific incidence have declined. With the exception of two countries, such a collectively declining malaria trend was not observed in previous decades. This presents a unique opportunity for the Americas to seriously consider malaria elimination as a final goal. PMID:25548378

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

The missing mountain water: Slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA

Treesearch

C. H. Luce; J. T. Abatzoglou; Z. A. Holden

2013-01-01

Trends in streamflow timing and volume in the Pacific Northwest United States have been attributed to increased temperatures because trends in precipitation at lower elevation stations were negligible. We demonstrate that observed streamflow declines likely are associated with declines in mountain precipitation, revealing previously unexplored differential trends....

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

Are more North American species decreasing than increasing?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Hagemeijer, E.J.M.; Verstrael, T.J.

1994-01-01

Population trends for North American species are calculated for 1966-'91 and 1982-'91 using Nonh American Breeding Bird Survey data. Species are grouped into 3 systems of guild classifications representing migration status, breeding habitat and nesting substrate. Trends for these groups are summarized by time period, bioregion and physiographic region. At the continental level, declines approximately equalled increases. There are slightly more declines during the last 10 years. Prairie populations declined more than expected, while western populations increased. Scrub and grassland nesting species declined significantly in several bioregions while woodland species increased. Most guilds did not depart significantly from a ratio of 50:50 increases to decreases or have opposing trends in different bioregions. Guild group changes are usually clustered geographically. Guild and other analyses that search for patterns among population trend estimates offer an excellent means of identifying critical conservation issues.

Challenges and possibilities for attribution studies in developing countries: Ethiopian drought of 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kew, Sarah; Philip, Sjoukje; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; King, Andrew; Karoly, David; Zegeye, Abiy; Eshetu, Zewdu; Hailu, Beza; Hailemariam, Kinfe

2017-04-01

Few publicly available observational stations, irregular records and short time series are common obstacles to trend detection and event attribution in developing countries (and in general, data sparse regions). It is developing countries, however, that also feel the impact of extreme weather events most severely and are therefore most vulnerable to climate change. There is a clear need for objective studies that quantify the extremity of the events and investigate their cause, which can be used in raising risk awareness. Here we outline our multi-method approach, which can help to indicate whether event return times and the attribution are robust and give a fairer idea of uncertainties, using the drought of 2015 in Ethiopia as an example, and share the challenges and possibilities encountered. In a drought-free year, Ethiopia experiences two rain seasons, Belg from February to May, and Kiremt from June to mid-September. In 2015, both rain seasons failed in the north east of the country, leading to one of the lowest precipitation deficits there in at least 50 years. We discuss the steps involved in defining the event, selecting precipitation and soil moisture as indicators for drought and its impact, and selecting observational data and other sources that can be used in addition to station observations, like the CHIRPS and CenTrends datasets. Besides we show the importance of using different models that are validated well, as well as the chosen approach to trend detection and attribution to both global warming and El Nino.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces).

PubMed

Dorius, Shawn F; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-07-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces)

PubMed Central

Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2011-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world’s population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality. PMID:21643494

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 based on homogenized observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Liu, Weidong; Wang, Yingchun

2011-03-01

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26, -0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

Trends in Consumption of Solid Fats, Added Sugars, Sodium, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, and Fruit from Fast Food Restaurants and by Fast Food Restaurant Type among US Children, 2003-2010.

PubMed

Rehm, Colin D; Drewnowski, Adam

2016-12-13

Energy intakes from fast food restaurants (FFRs) have declined among US children. Less is known about the corresponding trends for FFR-sourced solid fats, added sugars, and sodium, and food groups of interest, such as fruit and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Using data from a single 24-h dietary recall among 12,378 children aged 4-19 years from four consecutive cycles of the nationally-representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003-2010 a custom algorithm segmented FFRs into burger, pizza, sandwich, Mexican cuisine, chicken, Asian cuisine, fish restaurants, and coffee shops. There was a significant population-wide decline in FFR-sourced solid fats (-32 kcal/day, p -trend < 0.001), added sugars (-16 kcal/day; p -trend < 0.001), SSBs (-0.12 servings (12 fluid ounces or 355 mL)/day; p -trend < 0.001), and sodium (-166 mg/day; p -trend < 0.001). Declines were observed when restricted to fast food consumers alone. Sharp declines were observed for pizza restaurants; added sugars, solid fats, and SSBs declined significantly from burger restaurants. Fruit did not change for fast food restaurants overall. Temporal analyses of fast food consumption trends by restaurant type allow for more precise monitoring of the quality of children's diets than can be obtained from analyses of menu offerings. Such analyses can inform public health interventions and policy measures.

Trends in Consumption of Solid Fats, Added Sugars, Sodium, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, and Fruit from Fast Food Restaurants and by Fast Food Restaurant Type among US Children, 2003–2010

PubMed Central

Rehm, Colin D.; Drewnowski, Adam

2016-01-01

Energy intakes from fast food restaurants (FFRs) have declined among US children. Less is known about the corresponding trends for FFR-sourced solid fats, added sugars, and sodium, and food groups of interest, such as fruit and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Using data from a single 24-h dietary recall among 12,378 children aged 4–19 years from four consecutive cycles of the nationally-representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2003–2010 a custom algorithm segmented FFRs into burger, pizza, sandwich, Mexican cuisine, chicken, Asian cuisine, fish restaurants, and coffee shops. There was a significant population-wide decline in FFR-sourced solid fats (−32 kcal/day, p-trend < 0.001), added sugars (−16 kcal/day; p-trend < 0.001), SSBs (−0.12 servings (12 fluid ounces or 355 mL)/day; p-trend < 0.001), and sodium (−166 mg/day; p-trend < 0.001). Declines were observed when restricted to fast food consumers alone. Sharp declines were observed for pizza restaurants; added sugars, solid fats, and SSBs declined significantly from burger restaurants. Fruit did not change for fast food restaurants overall. Temporal analyses of fast food consumption trends by restaurant type allow for more precise monitoring of the quality of children’s diets than can be obtained from analyses of menu offerings. Such analyses can inform public health interventions and policy measures. PMID:27983573

Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

PubMed Central

Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

2016-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

Consumption of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age: the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Nooyens, Astrid C J; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; van Gelder, Boukje M; van Boxtel, Martin P J; Verschuren, W M Monique

2014-02-01

Accelerated cognitive decline increases the risk of dementia. Slowing down the rate of cognitive decline leads to the preservation of cognitive functioning in the elderly, who can live independently for a longer time. Alcohol consumption may influence the rate of cognitive decline. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the associations between the total consumption of alcoholic beverages and different types of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age. In 2613 men and women of the Doetinchem Cohort Study, aged 43-70 years at baseline (1995-2002), cognitive function (global cognitive function and the domains memory, speed and flexibility) was assessed twice, with a 5-year time interval. In linear regression analyses, the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages was analysed in relation to cognitive decline, adjusting for confounders. We observed that, in women, the total consumption of alcoholic beverages was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function over a 5-year period (P for trend = 0·02), while no association was observed in men. Regarding the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages in men and women together, red wine consumption was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function (P for trend < 0·01) as well as memory (P for trend < 0·01) and flexibility (P for trend = 0·03). Smallest declines were observed at a consumption of about 1·5 glasses of red wine per d. No other types of alcoholic beverages were associated with cognitive decline. In conclusion, only (moderate) red wine consumption was consistently associated with less strong cognitive decline. Therefore, it is most likely that non-alcoholic substances in red wine are responsible for any cognition-preserving effects.

Menstrual hygiene management and school absenteeism among female adolescent students in Northeast Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Sisay, Mitike Molla

2014-10-29

Adolescence in girls has been recognized as a special period marked with the onset of menarche. Even though menstruation is a natural process, it is associated with misconceptions, malpractices and challenges among girls in developing countries. However, much is not documented; school-absenteeism and dropout are a common problem among girls in rural Ethiopia. Focusing among school girls, this study has examined knowledge about menstruation, determinants of menstrual management and its influence on school-attendance in Northeast Ethiopia. We conducted a mixed-method research combining quantitative and qualitative methods in Northeast Ethiopia. The quantitative study was conducted among 595 randomly selected adolescent school girls. Nine in-depth interviews; five school-dropout girls and four female teachers, and four focus group discussions among school girls were conducted in 2013. The mean age at menarche was 13.98 (±1.17) years. About 51% of girls had knowledge about menstruation and its management. Only a third of the girls used sanitary napkins as menstrual absorbent during their last menstruation. Girls from urban areas, had mothers of secondary and above education and, families of higher monthly expenditure had more chance of using sanitary napkins than their counterparts. More than half of the girls reported to have been absent from school during their menstruation period. Those who did not use sanitary napkins were more likely to be absent from school [AOR-95% C.I: 5.37 (3.02 - 9.55)]. Fifty eight percent of girls reported that their school-performance had declined after they had menarche. In addition, the qualitative study indicated that school-dropout was common among girls who experienced teasing and humiliation by classmates when their clothes were stained with blood as they do not use sanitary napkins. Though there is an effort to increase girls' school enrollment, lack of basic needs, like sanitary napkins that facilitate routine activates of girls at early adolescence are observed to deter girls' school-attendance in rural Ethiopia. Special support for girl students, especially when they have their first menstruation and separate functioning sanitary facilities are necessities that should be in school at all times if gender equality and girls empowerment is to be achieved.

A reply to Sahle and Braun's reply to 'The pattern of emergence of a Middle Stone Age tradition at Gademotta and Kulkuletti (Ethiopia) through convergent tool and point technologies' [J. Hum. Evol. 91 (2016) 93-121].

PubMed

Douze, Katja; Delagnes, Anne; Rots, Veerle; Gravina, Brad

2018-05-28

Sahle and Braun's (in press) recent comments on our identification (Douze and Delagnes, 2016) of diachronic trends in Middle Stone Age point traditions in several lithic assemblages from the sites of Gademotta and Kulkuletti (Ethiopia) focuses on pointed tool function rather than the gradual technological shifts we observed between sites. Here we address several of what we consider to be inaccuracies and misinterpretations concerning our work with the Gademotta and Kulkuletti lithic assemblages (Douze, 2012, 2014), more specifically, Sahle and Braun's (in press) interpretation of the tranchet blow technique. This discussion is inseparable from a critical review of the evidence advanced by Sahle and Braun to support projectile technology being present in the Gademotta Formation as early as >279 ka. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Aquifer geometry, lithology, and water levels in the Anza–Terwilliger area—2013, Riverside and San Diego Counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landon, Matthew K.; Morita, Andrew Y.; Nawikas, Joseph M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Langenheim, Victoria E.

2015-11-24

On the basis of data from 33 wells, water levels mostly declined between the fall of 2006 and the fall of 2013; the median decline was 5.1 feet during this period, for a median rate of decline of about 0.7 feet/year. Based on data from 40 wells, water-level changes between fall 2004 and fall 2013 were variable in magnitude and trend, but had a median decline of 2.4 feet and a median rate of decline of about 0.3 feet/ year. These differences in apparent rates of groundwater-level change highlight the value of ongoing water-level measurements to distinguish decadal, or longer term, trends in groundwater storage often associated with climatic variability and trends. Fifty-four long-term hydrographs indicated the sensitivity of groundwater levels to climatic conditions; they also showed a general decline in water levels across the study area since 1986 and, in some cases, dating back to the 1950s.

Update on the nutrition situation.

PubMed

Mason, J; Garcia, M

1995-01-01

The Update on the Nutrition Situation, 1994 was published in early 1995 by the United Nations Subcommittee on Nutrition. Thus, data available at the country level about estimates of the nutritional situation now provide trends of prevalences of underweight children in 35 countries for the 1990s. In Sub-Saharan Africa recent deterioration has occurred as a result of the general worsening of nutrition in Africa. However, in the Near East, North Africa, and South America the generally improving trends of the 1980s seem to be continuing with the likelihood of reaching the prevalences of the developed countries by the year 2000. A surveillance system in Bangladesh indicates improvement from 1990 to 1993; however, India data for 1991/92 indicate deterioration in 3 states and no significant change in 4, possibly connected the economic slowdown in the early 1990s. In many countries of southeast Asia, China, Middle America and the Caribbean, South America, the Near East and North Africa the improvement of rates could result in halving the prevalences of underweight children. The gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator of nutritional performance. During 1985-92 in Sub-Saharan Africa GDP declined by 0.8% and consequently the nutritional situation also deteriorated. In other areas of the world the GDP growth rates improved after 1990 and the underweight trends in the early 1990s were generally similar to those of the late 1980s. The nutritional improvement outside Sub-Saharan Africa and possibly India continued in the early 1990s. Rapid economic growth was associated with improving nutrition in Thailand and Vietnam in the 1980s and also to a smaller extent for Indonesia and China. Faster than average improvement is plausible for Jamaica, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe. Deteriorating cases are Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Rwanda. Economic growth, health, education, and community-based nutrition programs all contribute to improving nutrition.

Water use in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, 2010, and water-use trends, 1985-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, Stephen J.

2016-02-25

Water-use trends in the ACF River Basin have varied during the 25 years between 1985 and 2010. Surface-water withdrawals declined between 1985 and 2000, sharply increased in 2000, and declined again between 2000 and 2010. In contrast, groundwater withdrawals increased between 1985 and 2000, declined in 2005, and increased between 2005 and 2010.

Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate.

PubMed

Kearney, Melissa S; Levine, Phillip B

2015-05-01

We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trait correlates of distribution trends in the Odonata of Britain and Ireland

PubMed Central

Cham, Steve S.A.; Smallshire, Dave; Isaac, Nick J.B.

2015-01-01

A major challenge in ecology is understanding why certain species persist, while others decline, in response to environmental change. Trait-based comparative analyses are useful in this regard as they can help identify the key drivers of decline, and highlight traits that promote resistance to change. Despite their popularity trait-based comparative analyses tend to focus on explaining variation in range shift and extinction risk, seldom being applied to actual measures of species decline. Furthermore they have tended to be taxonomically restricted to birds, mammals, plants and butterflies. Here we utilise a novel approach to estimate occurrence trends for the Odonata in Britain and Ireland, and examine trait correlates of these trends using a recently available trait dataset. We found the dragonfly fauna in Britain and Ireland has undergone considerable change between 1980 and 2012, with 22 and 53% of species declining and increasing, respectively. Distribution region, habitat specialism and range size were the key traits associated with these trends, where habitat generalists that occupy southern Britain tend to have increased in comparison to the declining narrow-ranged specialist species. In combination with previous evidence, we conclude that the lower trend estimates for the narrow-ranged specialists could be a sign of biotic homogenization with ecological specialists being replaced by warm-adapted generalists. PMID:26618083

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Patterns and trends of contraceptive use among sexually active adolescents in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Nigeria: evidence from cross-sectional studies

PubMed Central

Hounton, Sennen; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Amouzou, Agbessi; Shiferaw, Solomon; Maïga, Abdoulaye; Akinyemi, Akanni; Friedman, Howard; Koroma, Desmond

2015-01-01

Background The benefits of universal access to voluntary contraception have been widely documented in terms of maternal and newborn survival, women's empowerment, and human capital. Given population dynamics, the choices and opportunities adolescents have in terms of access to sexual and reproductive health information and services could significantly affect the burden of diseases and nations’ human capital. Objectives The objectives of this paper are to assess the patterns and trends of modern contraception use among sexually active adolescents by socio-economic characteristics and by birth spacing and parity; to explore predictors of use of modern contraception in relation to the health system; and to discuss implications of the findings for family planning policy and programmes. Design Data are from the last three Demographic and Health Surveys of Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria. The descriptive analysis focused on sexually active adolescents (15- to 19-year age group), used modern contraception as the dependent variable, and a series of contact points with the health system (antenatal care, institutional delivery, postnatal care, immunisation) as covariates. The multivariate analysis used the same covariates, adjusting for socio-economic variables. Results There are two different groups of sexually active adolescents: those married or in a union with very low use of modern contraception and lower socio-economic status, and those unmarried, among whom nearly 50% are using modern contraception. Younger adolescents have lower modern contraceptive prevalence. There are significant inequality issues in modern contraception use by education, residence, and wealth quintile. However, while there was no significant progress in Burkina Faso and Nigeria, the data in Ethiopia point to a significant and systematic reduction of inequalities. The narrowing of the equity gap was most notable for childbearing adolescents with no education or living in rural areas. In the three countries, after adjusting for socio-economic variables, the strongest factors affecting modern contraception use among childbearing adolescents were marriage and child immunisation. Conclusions Addressing child marriage and adopting effective policies and strategies to reach married adolescents are critical for improving empowerment and human capital of adolescent girls. The reduction of the equity gap in coverage in Ethiopia warrants further studies and documentation. The results suggest a missed opportunity for maternal and newborn and family planning integration. PMID:26562143

Patterns and trends of contraceptive use among sexually active adolescents in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Nigeria: evidence from cross-sectional studies.

PubMed

Hounton, Sennen; Barros, Aluisio J D; Amouzou, Agbessi; Shiferaw, Solomon; Maïga, Abdoulaye; Akinyemi, Akanni; Friedman, Howard; Koroma, Desmond

2015-01-01

The benefits of universal access to voluntary contraception have been widely documented in terms of maternal and newborn survival, women's empowerment, and human capital. Given population dynamics, the choices and opportunities adolescents have in terms of access to sexual and reproductive health information and services could significantly affect the burden of diseases and nations' human capital. The objectives of this paper are to assess the patterns and trends of modern contraception use among sexually active adolescents by socio-economic characteristics and by birth spacing and parity; to explore predictors of use of modern contraception in relation to the health system; and to discuss implications of the findings for family planning policy and programmes. Data are from the last three Demographic and Health Surveys of Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria. The descriptive analysis focused on sexually active adolescents (15- to 19-year age group), used modern contraception as the dependent variable, and a series of contact points with the health system (antenatal care, institutional delivery, postnatal care, immunisation) as covariates. The multivariate analysis used the same covariates, adjusting for socio-economic variables. There are two different groups of sexually active adolescents: those married or in a union with very low use of modern contraception and lower socio-economic status, and those unmarried, among whom nearly 50% are using modern contraception. Younger adolescents have lower modern contraceptive prevalence. There are significant inequality issues in modern contraception use by education, residence, and wealth quintile. However, while there was no significant progress in Burkina Faso and Nigeria, the data in Ethiopia point to a significant and systematic reduction of inequalities. The narrowing of the equity gap was most notable for childbearing adolescents with no education or living in rural areas. In the three countries, after adjusting for socio-economic variables, the strongest factors affecting modern contraception use among childbearing adolescents were marriage and child immunisation. Addressing child marriage and adopting effective policies and strategies to reach married adolescents are critical for improving empowerment and human capital of adolescent girls. The reduction of the equity gap in coverage in Ethiopia warrants further studies and documentation. The results suggest a missed opportunity for maternal and newborn and family planning integration.

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States.

PubMed

Molloy, Raven; Smith, Christopher L; Wozniak, Abigail

2017-04-01

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979.

PubMed

Sweet, J A; Rindfuss, R R

1983-01-01

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

How Ethiopia achieved Millennium Development Goal 4 through multisectoral interventions: a Countdown to 2015 case study.

PubMed

Ruducha, Jenny; Mann, Carlyn; Singh, Neha S; Gemebo, Tsegaye D; Tessema, Negussie S; Baschieri, Angela; Friberg, Ingrid; Zerfu, Taddese A; Yassin, Mohammed; Franca, Giovanny A; Berman, Peter

2017-11-01

3 years before the 2015 deadline, Ethiopia achieved Millennium Development Goal 4. The under-5 mortality decreased 69%, from 205 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 64 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2013. To understand the underlying factors that contributed to the success in achieving MDG4, Ethiopia was selected as a Countdown to 2015 case study. We used a set of complementary methods to analyse progress in child health in Ethiopia between 1990 and 2014. We used Demographic Health Surveys to analyse trends in coverage and equity of key reproductive, maternal health, and child health indicators. Standardised tools developed by the Countdown Health Systems and Policies working group were used to understand the timing and content of health and non-health policies. We assessed longitudinal trends in health-system investment through a financial analysis of National Health Accounts, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to assess the contribution of interventions towards reducing under-5 mortality. The annual rate of reduction in under-5 mortality increased from 3·3% in 1990-2005 to 7·8% in 2005-13. The prevalence of stunting decreased from 60% in 2000 to 40% in 2014. Overall levels of coverage of reproductive, maternal health, and child health indicators remained low, with disparities between the lowest and highest wealth quintiles despite improvement in coverage for essential health interventions. Coverage of child immunisation increased the most (21% of children in 2000 vs 80% of children in 2014), followed by coverage of satisfied demand for family planning by women of reproductive age (19% vs 63%). Provision of antenatal care increased from 10% of women in 2000 to 32% of women in 2014, but only 15% of women delivered with a skilled birth attendant by 2014. A large upturn occurred after 2005, bolstered by a rapid increase in health funding that facilitated the accelerated expansion of health infrastructure and workforce through an innovative community-based delivery system. The LiST model could explain almost 50% of the observed reduction in child mortality between 2000 and 2011; and changes in nutritional status were responsible for about 50% of the 469 000 lives saved between 2000 and 2011. These developments occurred within a multisectoral policy platform, integrating child survival and stunting goals within macro-level policies and programmes for reducing poverty and improving agricultural productivity, food security, water supply, and sanitation. The reduction of under-5 mortality in Ethiopia was the result of combined activities in health, nutrition, and non-health sectors. However, Ethiopia still has high neonatal and maternal morbidity and mortality from preventable causes and an unfinished agenda in reducing inequalities, improving coverage of effective interventions, and strengthening multisectoral partnerships for further progress. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Government of Canada. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

2010-10-01

Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV epidemic and trend.

Water-Quality Trends in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, 1974-2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harned, D. A.

2003-12-01

Data from two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sites in the Neuse River basin were reviewed for trends in major ions, sediment, nutrients, and pesticides during the period 1974-2003. In 1997, the North Carolina Division of Water Quality implemented management rules to reduce nitrogen loading to the Neuse River by 30 percent by 2003. Therefore, the 1997-2003 period was reviewed for trends associated with the management changes. The Neuse River at Kinston basin (2,695 square miles) includes much of Raleigh, N.C., with 8-percent urban and 30-percent agricultural land use (1992 data). The Contentnea Creek basin (734 square miles), a Neuse River tributary, is 42-percent agricultural and 3-percent urban. Agricultural land uses in the Contentnea Creek basin have changed over the last decade from predominantly corn, soybean, and tobacco row crops to corn, soybeans, and cotton, with reduced tobacco acreages, and development of the hog industry. Data for this analysis were collected by the USGS for the National Stream Quality Accounting Network and National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Data were examined for trends using the Seasonal Kendall trend test or Tobit regression. The Seasonal Kendall test, which accounts for seasonal variability and adjusts for effects of streamflow on concentration with residuals from LOWESS (LOcally Weighted Sum of Squares) curves, was used to analyze trends in major ions, nutrients, and sediment. The Tobit test, appropriate for examining values with reporting limits, was used for the pesticide analysis. Monotonic trends are considered significant at the alpha < 0.05 probability level. Long-term (1974-2003) decreasing trends in the Neuse River at Kinston were detected for dissolved oxygen, silica, and sediment concentrations; increasing trends were detected for potassium, alkalinity, and chloride. Decreasing trends in Contentnea Creek were detected for silica, sulfate, and sediment concentrations during 1979-2003; increasing trends were detected for pH, hardness, and alkalinity. A pattern of increase until 1990 followed by little change or decline was observed for specific conductance, dissolved solids, hardness, and sulfate in the Neuse River and for potassium in Contentnea Creek. No significant recent (1997-2003) trends were detected for dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, hardness, dissolved solids, or major ions. The Neuse River data indicated a recent declining trend in sediment concentration. Nitrogen concentrations in the form of ammonia, total ammonia and organic nitrogen, and nitrite plus nitrate have declined in both the Neuse River and Contentnea Creek. Total nitrogen concentrations increased in the Neuse River until about 1990 and then declined, primarily because of declines in nitrate. Recent declines are evident in nitrite plus nitrate in the Neuse River and in ammonia concentrations in Contentnea Creek. The data also show a reduction in variation of extreme values after 1990 in Contentnea Creek. Both observations suggest that the 1997 Neuse River management rules have had a detectable effect on nitrogen concentrations. Concentrations of dissolved and total phosphorus and orthophosphate reduced in a step trend in 1988 at both locations. This reflects the 1988 phosphate detergent ban in North Carolina. Orthophosphate concentrations have continued a recent decline in Contentnea Creek. Contentnea Creek has sufficient period of record (1994-2003) of concentrations of atrazine, deethyl atrazine, alachlor, carbaryl, diazinon, and prometon to test for trends. Both alachlor and prometon concentrations showed significant declines. Recent changes in agricultural practices coupled with a 5-year drought probably have affected pesticide use and transport to surface waters.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Increasing Choice or Inequality? Pathways through Early Education in Andhra Pradesh, India. Working Papers in Early Childhood Development, No. 58. Studies in Early Childhood Transitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Streuli, Natalia; Vennam, Uma; Woodhead, Martin

2011-01-01

This working paper is part of the Studies in Early Transitions series emerging from "Young Lives", a 15-year longitudinal study of childhood poverty in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. It explores recent trends for children growing up in Andhra Pradesh, one of India's most populous states, based on Young Lives survey data collected for…

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

Treesearch

Zhaofei Fan; Xiuli Fan; Michael K. Crosby; W. Keith Moser; Hong He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley

2012-01-01

At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and...

Political Trends Affecting Nonmetropolitan America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nachtigal, Paul M.

There are two stories about political trends affecting nonmetropolitan America. The old story, which is the story of declining rural population and declining rural influence on public policy formation, has its roots in early deliberations about governance in this country. Jefferson's republicanism focused on direct citizen involvement in decision…

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

Data on spatiotemporal urban sprawl of Dire Dawa City, Eastern Ethiopia.

PubMed

Taffa, Chaltu; Mekonen, Teferi; Mulugeta, Messay; Tesfaye, Bechaye

2017-06-01

The data presented in this paper shows the spatiotemporal expansion of Dire Dawa City (eastern Ethiopia) and the ensuing land use land cover changes in its peri-urban areas between 1985 and 2015. The data were generated from satellite images of Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper-Plus (ETM+) and OLI (Operational Land Image) with path/raw value of 166/053 by using Arc GIS 10.1 software. The precision of the images was verified by geolocation data collected from ground control points by using Geographic Positioning System (GPS) receiver. Four LULC classes (built up area, vegetation, barren land and farmland) with their respective spatiotemporal dimensions were clearly identified in the analysis. Built up area had shown an overall annual increment of 15.8% (82 ha per year) from 517 ha in 1985 to 2976 ha in 2015. Expansion took place in all directions but it was more pronounced along the main road towards other nearby towns, recently established business/service areas and the Industrial Park. Barren land, farmland and vegetation areas showed speedy decline over the years.

Influence of changing travel patterns on child death rates from injury: trend analysis.

PubMed Central

DiGuiseppi, C.; Roberts, I.; Li, L.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in child mortality from unintentional injury between 1985 and 1992 and to find how changes in modes of travel contributed to these trends. DESIGN: Poisson regression modelling using data from death certificates, censuses, and national travel surveys. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Resident children aged 0-14. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths from unintentional injury and poisoning. RESULTS: Child deaths from injury declined by 34% (95% confidence interval 28% to 40%) per 100,000 population between 1985 and 1992. Substantial decreases in each of the leading causes of death from injury contributed to this overall decline. On average, children walked and cycled less distance and travelled substantially more miles by car in 1992 compared with 1985. Deaths from road traffic accidents declined for pedestrians by 24% per mile walked and for cyclists by 20% per mile cycled, substantially less than the declines per 100,000 population of 37% and 38% respectively. In contrast, deaths of occupants of motor vehicles declined by 42% per mile travelled by car compared with a 21% decline per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: If trends in child mortality from injury continue the government's target to reduce the rate by 33% by the year 2005 will be achieved. A substantial proportion of the decline in pedestrian traffic and pedal cycling deaths, however, seems to have been achieved at the expense of children's walking and cycling activities. Changes in travel patterns may exact a considerable price in terms of future health problems. PMID:9116546

Exploration of over the counter sales of antibiotics in community pharmacies of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: pharmacy professionals' perspective.

PubMed

Gebretekle, Gebremedhin Beedemariam; Serbessa, Mirgissa Kaba

2016-01-01

Over the counter sale of antibiotics is a global problem and it is increasingly recognized as a source of antibiotic misuse and is believed to increase treatment costs, adverse effects of treatment and emergence of resistance. The increasing trend of over the counter sale of antibiotics in Ethiopia calls for exploration of why such dispensing is practiced. This study aims to explore reasons for over the counter sale of antibiotics in the community pharmacies of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A phenomenological qualitative study was conducted in five randomly selected community pharmacies of Addis Ababa. One pharmacy professional from each pharmacy were interviewed at the spot using semi-structured, open-ended interview checklist. Besides, observation of professionals' dispensing practice was made for at least one hour in the same community pharmacies using an observation checklist. Findings were categorized into specific themes that were developed following the objectives. This was facilitated by use of OpenCode 3.6 software. All participants pointed out that antibiotics were frequently dispensed without prescription and contend that the trend of such dispensing has been increasing. The findings indicated that the nonprescription sales of antibiotics were common for Amoxicillin, Ciprofloxacin and Cotrimoxazole. The poor, less educated and younger groups of the population were reported to frequently request antibiotics without prescription. The main reasons for nonprescription sale of antibiotics by pharmacy professionals were found to be related to pharmacy owner's influence to maximize revenue, customer's pressure, weak regulatory mechanism and professional conflicts of interest. The study shows that nonprescription sale of antibiotics was common practice at least in Addis Ababa. The main reasons for this malpractice were the need to maximize revenue and weak regulatory mechanism. Hence, strong regulatory enforcement and community awareness campaign is called for to limit nonprescription sale of antibiotics.

Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

2018-06-01

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p < 0.05) of an average 0.06 m year-1. Fifty-one bores (20%) exhibited significant declining groundwater levels (p < 0.05), 25 bores (10%) exhibited significant rising groundwater levels (p < 0.05), and 175 bores (70%) exhibited no significant change in groundwater levels (p > 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

The nutrition transition and adolescents' diets in low- and middle-income countries: a cross-cohort comparison.

PubMed

Aurino, Elisabetta; Fernandes, Meena; Penny, Mary E

2017-01-01

To investigate changes in dietary diversity and dietary composition among adolescents in four developing countries. We analysed dietary diversity and consumption of seven food groups and foods with added sugars as reported by adolescents from two cohorts growing up 8 years apart, when they were aged about 12 years. Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam in 2006 and 2013. Adolescents (n 3659) from the older cohort (OC) born in 1995/96 and adolescents (n 7422) from the younger cohort (YC) born in 2001/02 (N 11 081). Controlling for other factors, dietary diversity increased in Peru (OC=4·89, YC=5·34, P<0·001) and Ethiopia (OC=3·52, YC=3·94, P=0·001). Dietary diversity was stable in India (OC=4·28, YC=4·29, P=0·982) and Vietnam (OC=4·71, YC=4·73, P=0·814); however, changes in dietary composition were observed. YC adolescents were more likely to consume eggs (India: +32 %, P=0·038; Vietnam: +50 %, P<0·001) and milk and dairy (India: +12 %, P=0·029; Vietnam: +46 %, P<0·001). Other notable shifts included meat consumption in Peru (+72 %, P<0·001) and consumption of fruit and vegetables in Ethiopia (+36 %, P<0·001). Compared with OC, the prevalence of added sugar consumption was greater among the YC in Ethiopia (+35 %, P=0·001) and Vietnam (+44 % P<0·001). Between 2006 and 2013, disparities in dietary diversity associated with household wealth and place of residence declined, although this varied by country. No marked gender disparities in dietary diversity were evident. We found significant changes over time in dietary diversity among adolescents in four countries consistent with the hypothesis of the nutrition transition.

What's on the Horizon? Trends Impacting Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corey, Del; And Others

Major national trends and their effects on the future of education are examined. Demographic events that affected schools include the postwar baby boom and the migration from the Northeast to the sunbelt region. Factors affecting the college curriculum include: (1) enrollment projections, (2) decline in literacy, (3) decline in mathematics and…

Sectoral Trends in World Employment and the Shift toward Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wieczorek, Jaroslaw

1995-01-01

Review of statistical data confirms worldwide trends: growth in services, decline in agriculture, and, in manufacturing, decline in industrialized economies but growth in developing ones. Although services are characterized by low productivity growth, certain types (such as research and development) exert positive influence on economic growth. (SK)

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, S. Fred

1990-01-01

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Permian and Triassic microfloral assemblages from the Blue Nile Basin, central Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawit, Enkurie L.

2014-11-01

Palynological investigation was carried out on surface samples from up to 400 m thick continental siliciclastic sediments, here referred to as “Fincha Sandstone”, in the Blue Nile Basin, central Ethiopia. One hundred sixty species were identified from 15 productive samples collected along a continuous road-cut exposure. Six informal palynological assemblage zones have been identified. These assemblage zones, in ascending order, are: “Central Ethiopian Permian Assemblage Zone - CEPAZ I”, earliest Permian (Asselian-Sakmarian); “CEPAZ II”, late Early Permian (Artinskian-Kungurian); CEPAZ III - Late Permian (Kazanian-Tatarian); “CETAZ IV”, Lower Triassic (Olenekian Induan); “CETAZ V”, Middle Triassic (Anisian Ladinian); “CETAZ VI”, Late Triassic (Carnian Norian). Tentative age ranges proposed herein are compared with faunally calibrated palynological zones in Gondwana. The overall composition and vertical distribution of miospores throughout the studied section reveals a wide variation both qualitatively and quantitatively. The high frequency of monosaccate pollen in CEPAZ I may reflect a Glossopterid-dominated upland flora in the earliest Permian. The succeeding zone is dominated by straite/taeniate disaccate pollen and polyplicates, suggesting a notable increase in diversity of glossopterids. The decline in the diversity of taeniate disaccate pollen and the concomitant rise in abundance of non-taeniate disaccates in CEPAZ III may suggest the decline in Glossopteris diversity, though no additional evidence is available to equate this change with End-Permian extinction. More diverse and dominant non-taeniate, disaccate, seed fern pollen assignable to FalcisporitesAlisporites in CETAZ IV may represent an earliest Triassic recovery flora. The introduction of new disaccate forms with thick, rigid sacci, such as Staurosaccites and Cuneatisporites, in CETAZ V and VI may indicate the emergence of new gymnospermous plants that might have favourably adapted to coastal plain wetland environments with the return of humid conditions in the Middle to early Late Triassic. The present data constitute the first paleontologically substantiated record for the existence of Permian strata in the Blue Nile Basin. The new results allow for the first time a reliable biostratigraphic subdivision of the central Ethiopia Karoo and its correlation with coeval strata of adjacent regions in Gondwana. From a phytogeographic point of view, the overall microfloral evidence is in support of the position of central Ethiopia occupying the northern part of the southern Gondwana palynofloral province. In view of palaeoecological and paleoclimatic conditions, the microfloral change from the base to the top of the studied section may indicate a response to shifting climatic belts from warm- and cool-temparate climate in the earliest Permian to progressively drier seasonal conditions at successively higher palaeolatitudes during the Late Permian to Middle Triassic.

Contaminant trends in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVault, David S.; Hesselberg, Robert J.; Rodgers, Paul W.; Feist, Timothy J.

1996-01-01

Trends in PCBs, DDT, and other contaminants have been monitored in Great Lakes lake trout and walleye since the 1970s using composite samples of whole fish. Dramatic declines have been observed in concentrations of PCB, ΣDDT, dieldrin, and oxychlordane, with declines initially following first order loss kinetics. Mean PCB concentrations in Lake Michigan lake trout increased from 13 μg/g in 1972 to 23 μg/g in 1974, then declined to 2.6 μg/g by 1986. Between 1986 and 1992 there was little change in concentration, with 3.5 μg/g observed in 1992. ΣDDT in Lake Michigan trout followed a similar trend, decreasing from 19.2 μg/g in 1970 to 1.1 μg/g in 1986, and 1.2 μg/g in 1992. Similar trends were observed for PCBs and ΣDDT in lake trout from Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario. Concentrations of both PCB and ΣDDT in Lake Erie walleye declined between 1977 and 1982, after which concentrations were relatively constant through 1990. When originally implemented it was assumed that trends in the mean contaminant concentrations in open-lake fish would serve as cost effective surrogates to trends in the water column. While water column data are still extremely limited it appears that for PCBs in lakes Michigan and Superior, trends in lake trout do reasonably mimic those in the water column over the long term. Hypotheses to explain the trends in contaminant concentrations are briefly reviewed. The original first order loss kinetics used to describe the initial decline do not explain the more recent leveling off of contaminant concentrations. Recent theories have examined the possibilities of multiple contaminant pools. We suggest another hypothesis, that changes in the food web may have resulted in increased bioaccumulation. However, a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis using a change point analysis was inconclusive.

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

PubMed Central

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

2013-01-01

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

Volcanic outcrops of southeast Ethiopia and the Ogaden Dyke Swarm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mège, Daniel; Purcell, Peter; Jourdan, Fred; Pochat, Stéphane

2013-04-01

A new map of Tertiary volcanics occurrences in the Ogaden region of southeast Ethiopia and adjacent areas of Somalia has been prepared. Outcrop areas, mapped using satellite images and helicopter-­-supported field work in 2008, are more widespread than previously recognized, while magnetic and drill data reveal the vast subsurface extent of the magmatism. Several spectacular 'meandering' outcrops, over 100 km long, are undoubtedly exhumed canyon-­-filling flows and magnetic data show that many other apparently isolated outcrops are actually part of similar flows, the bulk of which are now subsurface. Age dating and well intersections show several volcanic episodes, with the major outpouring occurring across a broad peneplain in the Oligocene. Geological and aeromagnetic mapping, and 40Ar/39Ar age dating, reveal a dyke swarm extending SSE from the southern Afar margin more than 600 km across the Somali Plate, and coeval with dyke injection in the Red Sea rift at ~25 Ma. The Ogaden Dyke Swarm, which occurs in an area historically considered remote from the impact of the Afro-­-Arabian rifting and volcanism, appears associated with the Marda Fault and marks a zone of crustal dilation along the Red Sea trend across the Horn of Africa. Contemporaneous rifts, also trending WNW/ESE and over 120 km long, occur in NE Somalia, confirming the predominantly NE/SW-­-directed crustal stress regime in the Ogaden and adjacent region at this time.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow of Major Ethiopian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gizaw, M. S.; Zhang, S.; Biftu, G. F.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.; Moges, S. A.; Koivusalo, H.

2017-12-01

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 ˚C (3.3 ˚C) in 2050s (2080s) whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections.

Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest area.

PubMed

Grainger, Alan

2008-01-15

The long-term trend in tropical forest area receives less scrutiny than the tropical deforestation rate. We show that constructing a reliable trend is difficult and evidence for decline is unclear, within the limits of errors involved in making global estimates. A time series for all tropical forest area, using data from Forest Resources Assessments (FRAs) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, is dominated by three successively corrected declining trends. Inconsistencies between these trends raise questions about their reliability, especially because differences seem to result as much from errors as from changes in statistical design and use of new data. A second time series for tropical moist forest area shows no apparent decline. The latter may be masked by the errors involved, but a "forest return" effect may also be operating, in which forest regeneration in some areas offsets deforestation (but not biodiversity loss) elsewhere. A better monitoring program is needed to give a more reliable trend. Scientists who use FRA data should check how the accuracy of their findings depends on errors in the data.

The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

2015-01-01

Background In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Methods Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. Results The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Conclusion Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized. PMID:26218074

The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

2015-01-01

In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized.

Where Have All the Soils Students Gone?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Mary E.

2008-01-01

Where have all the soils students gone? Several articles have been published recently discussing the decline in undergraduate student enrollment in soil science. Those who work directly with these students have known that this trend has existed for many years. At first we thought this trend was temporary. Now we realize that this declining trend…

Tendances de la societe francaise (Trends in French Society).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kimmel, Alain

1992-01-01

Recent trends in French society are outlined, focusing on the decline of major institutions (the state, political parties, unions, education, and church), the decline of civic consciousness, the cult of money and competition, the cult of the media, evolution of social classes, and changes in the role of the family. (MSE)

The effect of household heads training about the use of treated bed nets on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children: a cluster randomized trial in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Deribew, Amare; Birhanu, Zewdie; Sena, Lelisa; Dejene, Tariku; Reda, Ayalu A; Sudhakar, Morankar; Alemseged, Fessehaye; Tessema, Fasil; Zeynudin, Ahmed; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Deribe, Kebede

2012-01-06

Long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLITN) have demonstrated a significant effect in reducing malaria-related morbidity and mortality. However, barriers on the utilization of LLITN have hampered the desired outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of community empowerment on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children in Ethiopia. A cluster randomized trial was done in 22 (11 intervention and 11 control) villages in south-west Ethiopia. The intervention consisted of tailored training of household heads about the proper use of LLITN and community network system. The burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children was determined through mass blood investigation at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period. Cases of malaria and anaemia were treated based on the national protocol. The burden of malaria and anaemia between the intervention and control villages was compared using the complex logistic regression model by taking into account the clustering effect. Eight Focus group discussions were conducted to complement the quantitative findings. A total of 2,105 household heads received the intervention and the prevalence of malaria and anaemia was assessed among 2410, 2037 and 2612 under-five children at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period respectively. During the high transmission/epidemic season, children in the intervention arm were less likely to have malaria as compared to children in the control arm (OR = 0.42; 95%CI: 0.32, 0.57). Symptomatic malaria also steadily declined in the intervention villages compared to the control villages in the follow up periods. Children in the intervention arm were less likely to be anaemic compared to those in the control arm both at the high (OR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.71, 0.99)) and low (OR = 0.73; 95%CI: 0.60, 0.89) transmission seasons. Training of household heads on the utilization of LLITN significantly reduces the burden of malaria in under-five children. The Ministry of Health of Ethiopia in collaboration with other partners should design similar strategies in high-risk areas to control malaria in Ethiopia. Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR): ACTRN12610000035022.

Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wohlleben, T.; Tivy, A.; Stroeve, J.; Meier, Walter N.; Fetterer, F.; Wang, J.; Assel, R.

2013-01-01

Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

Long-term decrease in phosphate concentrations in the surface layer of the southern Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodama, Taketoshi; Igeta, Yosuke; Kuga, Mizuki; Abe, Shoko

2016-10-01

To identify possible causes for the long-term trends in nutrient concentrations in the southern Japan Sea (JS), we studied nutrient concentrations that were obtained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Our evaluation shows that phosphate concentrations declined in the surface layers in summer (0-20 and 21-50 m depth) and winter (0-20, 21-50, and 51-100 m depth) over the last 40 years, while no significant linear trend was observed for nitrate concentrations. The declining trend in the phosphate concentration was quantified as 1.8-3.3 nM yr-1. The increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition to the JS could not explain the decline in phosphate concentration. In addition, the mixed-layer depth during winter did not demonstrate any significant trend, and an increase in phosphate concentrations was not observed in any layers; therefore, the decrease in nutrient supply from deep JS water was not considered a major possible cause for the decline in the phosphate concentration. In contrast, the phosphate concentration in the surface of the southern JS during winter showed a significant positive correlation with the concentration in the 21-50 m depth layer of the saline East China Sea (ECS) water in the preceding summer, and the surface water of the southern JS was almost entirely replaced by water originating from the ECS during May-October. Therefore, it is concluded that the declining trend in the phosphate concentrations in the southern JS is caused by horizontal advection of ECS water.

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

PubMed

Smith, Adam C; Hudson, Marie-Anne R; Downes, Constance M; Francis, Charles M

2015-01-01

North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions

PubMed Central

Smith, Adam C.; Hudson, Marie-Anne R.; Downes, Constance M.; Francis, Charles M.

2015-01-01

North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI) are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations) or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species’ breeding habitat). A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC) were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN) across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s) with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines. PMID:26147572

Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Bortner, J.B.

1991-01-01

Population trend analysis of American woodcook (Scolopax minor) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.

PubMed

Kyu, Hmwe H; Pinho, Christine; Wagner, Joseph A; Brown, Jonathan C; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Charlson, Fiona J; Coffeng, Luc Edgar; Dandona, Lalit; Erskine, Holly E; Ferrari, Alize J; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Fleming, Thomas D; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Graetz, Nicholas; Guinovart, Caterina; Haagsma, Juanita; Higashi, Hideki; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Larson, Heidi J; Lim, Stephen S; Mokdad, Ali H; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Odell, Shaun V; Roth, Gregory A; Serina, Peter T; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Misganaw, Awoke; Whiteford, Harvey A; Wolock, Timothy M; Wulf Hanson, Sarah; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; AlBuhairan, Fadia S; Amare, Azmeraw T; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Artaman, Al; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Barrero, Lope H; Benjet, Corina; Bensenor, Isabela M; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bikbov, Boris; Brazinova, Alexandra; Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Cooper, Cyrus; Crump, John A; Dandona, Rakhi; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dellavalle, Robert P; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Feigin, Valery L; Fürst, Thomas; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gibney, Katherine B; Goto, Atsushi; Gunnell, David; Hankey, Graeme J; Hay, Roderick J; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hu, Guoqing; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jayaraman, Sudha P; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jonas, Jost B; Karch, André; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kumar, G Anil; Larsson, Anders; Leasher, Janet L; Leung, Ricky; Li, Yongmei; Lipshultz, Steven E; Lopez, Alan D; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mashal, Taufiq; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Miller, Ted R; Mock, Charles N; Murray, Joseph; Nolte, Sandra; Oh, In-Hwan; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Ortblad, Katrina F; Park, Eun-Kee; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J; Patten, Scott B; Patton, George C; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Piel, Frédéric B; Polinder, Suzanne; Popova, Svetlana; Pourmalek, Farshad; Quistberg, D Alex; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Rothstein, David H; Sanabria, Juan; Santos, Itamar S; Schwebel, David C; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Shaheen, Amira; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stein, Dan J; Steiner, Timothy J; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Towbin, Jeffrey Allen; Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna; Vasankari, Tommi; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Werdecker, Andrea; Wilkinson, James D; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Wolfe, Charles D A; Yano, Yuichiro; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yu, Chuanhua; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Naghavi, Mohsen; Murray, Christopher J L; Vos, Theo

2016-03-01

The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

Analysis of satellite precipitation over East Africa during last decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattani, Elsa; Wenhaji Ndomeni, Claudine; Merino, Andrés; Levizzani, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms (e.g., ARC2 and TAMSAT) are exploited to extract the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA - 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades (1983-2013). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to precipitation time series to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in particular for October-November-December referred to as the short rain season. Moreover, the connection among EA's precipitation, sea surface temperature, and soil moisture is analyzed through the correlation with the dominant EOF modes of variability. Preliminary results concern the first two EOF's modes for the ARC2 data set. EOF1 is characterized by an inter-annual variability and a positive correlation between precipitation and El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode, and soil moisture, while EOF2 shows a dipole structure of spatial variability associated with a longer scale temporal variability. This second dominant mode is mostly linked to sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Further analyses are carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), i.e. RX1day, RX5day, CDD, CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10, R20. The purpose is to identify the occurrenes of extreme events (droughts and floods) and extract precipitation temporal variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Results for the ARC2 data set demonstrate the existence of a dipole spatial pattern in the linear trend of the time series of PRCPTOT (annual precipitation considering days with a rain rate > 1 mm) and SDII (average precipitation on wet days over a year). A negative trend is mainly present over West Ethiopia and Sudan, whereas a positive trend is exhibited over East Ethiopia and Somalia. CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and CWD (maximum number of consecutive wet days) time series do not exhibit a similar behavior and trends are generally weaker with a lower significance level with respect to PRCPTOT and SDII.

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines.

PubMed

Hill, Jason M; Egan, J Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E; Diefenbach, Duane R

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) "grassland breeding" bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980-2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3-21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Did it fall or was it pushed? The contribution of trends in established risk factors to the decline in premature coronary heart disease mortality in New Zealand.

PubMed

Tobias, Martin; Taylor, Richard; Yeh, Li-Chia; Huang, Ken; Mann, Stewart; Sharpe, Norman

2008-04-01

To estimate the contribution of trends in three risk factors--systolic blood pressure (SBP), total blood cholesterol (TBC) and cigarette smoking--to the decline in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in New Zealand from 1980-2004. Risk factor prevalence data by 10-year age group (35-64 years) and sex was sourced from six national or Auckland regional health surveys and three population censuses (the latter only for smoking). The data were smoothed using two-point moving averages, then further smoothed by fitting quadratic regression equations (SBP and TBC) or splines (smoking). Risk factor/CHD mortality hazard ratios estimated by expert working groups for the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study 2001 were used to translate average annual changes in risk factor prevalences to the corresponding percentage changes in premature CHD mortality. The expected trends in CHD mortality were then compared with the observed trend to estimate the contribution of each risk factor to the decline. Approximately 80% (73% for males, 87% for females) of the decline in premature CHD mortality from 1980 to 2004 is estimated to have resulted from the joint trends in population SBP and TBC distributions and smoking prevalence. Overall, approximately 42%, 36% and 22% of the joint risk factor effect was contributed by trends in SBP, TBC and smoking respectively. Our estimate for the joint risk factor contribution to the CHD mortality decline of 80% exceeds those of two earlier New Zealand studies, but agrees closely with a similar Australian study. This provides an indicator of the scope that still remains for further reduction in CHD mortality through primary and secondary prevention.

Secondhand smoke exposure in cars and rooms: trend comparisons among subpopulations of nonsmoking U.S. middle and high school students.

PubMed

McIntire, Russell K; Macy, Jonathan T; Seo, Dong-Chul; Nelson, Ashlyn A; Kolbe, Lloyd J

2014-06-01

Young people in the United States are exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) primarily in 2 settings: homes and cars. Recently, researchers reported that the prevalence of U.S students exposed to SHS in cars decreased from 2000 to 2009; however, comparisons of trends across school levels, gender, and racial/ethnic groups were not assessed. Moreover, no studies have examined trends of exposure to SHS in rooms. We used data from the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 waves of the National Youth Tobacco Survey, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of U.S. middle and high school students. For SHS in cars and rooms, we identified exposure trends among nonsmokers from 2000 to 2009 and compared trends across subpopulations with binary logistic regression. We identified significant downward linear trends in SHS in cars and rooms for nearly all measured subpopulations of nonsmoking students from 2000 to 2009. SHS exposure in cars and rooms declined at a significantly greater rate for males than for females. SHS exposure in cars declined at a significantly greater rate for non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks than for NH Whites. SHS exposure in rooms declined at a significantly greater rate for NH Whites than for Hispanics and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders. Although prevalence of exposure to SHS in cars and rooms among nonsmoking U.S. middle and high school students has declined from 2000 to 2009, the rates of decline were not equal across genders and racial/ethnic groups. Identification of these differing rates of exposure can help the public health community advocate for interventions focused on reducing adolescent SHS exposure.

Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes. PMID:24846309

A three year retrospective study on seroprevalence of syphilis among pregnant women at Gondar University Teaching Hospital, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Assefa, Abate

2014-03-01

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a serious public health problem in low income countries, including Ethiopia. Syphilis caused by Treponema pallidum remains a major cause of reproductive morbidity and poor pregnancy outcomes in low income countries. Stillbirth, perinatal death, serious neonatal infection and low-birth weight babies are common among seropositive mothers. To assess the seroprevalence of syphilis and risk factor correlates of this infection at Gondar University Teaching Hospital, Ethiopia. The study was done on 2385 pregnant women attending the antenatal care clinic (ANC) from January 2009 to December 2011. Data was abstracted from the antenatal care clinic medical database. Chi-square test was used, using SPSS version 16 and significance level was chosen at 0.05 level with a two-tailed test. Of the total, 69(2. 9%) of pregnant women were confirmed as seropositive for syphilis. Pregnant women with an age group of 21-25 years of old were the most seropositive (3.4%), followed by 26-30 years of old (3.1%). The prevalence of syphilis infection was 3.2% in urban and 2.2% in rural pregnant women. Relatively high prevalence of syphilis infection were identified among students (4.2%) followed by governmental employees (3.8%). The seroprevalence of syphilis among pregnant women attending ANC is declining. However, syphilis is more prevalent in the young and urban pregnant women. Emphasis on education to young people on STI risk behavioral change and partner follow up and notification for exposure to syphilis and treatment should be given.

I knew how it feels but couldn't save my daughter; testimony of an Ethiopian mother on female genital mutilation/cutting.

PubMed

Adinew, Yohannes Mehretie; Mekete, Beza Tamirat

2017-12-01

World Health Organization defines female genital mutilation/cutting as all procedures that involve partial or total removal of the external female genitalia, or other injury to the female genital organs for non-medical reasons. The practice is common in Ethiopia, especially among Somali (99%) ethnic groups. Even though FGM/C is labeled illegal practice according to the revised 2005 Penal Code of the country, the practice is still responsible for misery of many girls in Ethiopia. This personal testimony is presented using woman's own words. Data were collected through in-depth interview with a woman at Gursum health center, Somali regional state, eastern Ethiopia on June 19/2016. The interview was conducted in a private environment and original names were changed to overcome ethical concerns. Informed written consent was obtained from the participant prior to data collection. The interview was audio-taped using a digital voice recorder, later transcribed and translated verbatim from the local language, Amharic to English. The study participant described a range of experiences she had during her own and her daughter's circumcision. Three themes emerged from the woman's description: womanhood, social pressure and stigmatization of uncircumcised women and uncertain future. Even though the national prevalence may show a decline, FGM/C is still practiced underground. Thus, anti-FGM/C interventions shall take in to account elders influence and incorporate a human rights approach rather than relying merely on the dire health consequences. Further exploration of the determinants of FGM/C on a wider scale is recommended.

Analysis of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in Ethiopia, 2005-2015: progress and challenges.

PubMed

Tegegne, Ayesheshem Ademe; Fiona, Braka; Shebeshi, Meseret Eshetu; Hailemariam, Fasal Teshager; Aregay, Aron Kassahun; Beyene, Berhane; Asemahgne, Eshetu Wassie; Woyessa, Daddi Jima; Woyessa, Abyot Bekele

2017-01-01

Ethiopia joined the global effort to eradicate polio in 1996, and interrupted indigenous wild poliovirus transmission by December 2001. However, the country experienced numerous separate importations during 2003-2013. Sensitive Acute Flaccid (AFP) surveillance is critical to rule out undetected circulation of WPV and VDPVs. In this study described, we used a retrospective descriptive study design to characterize the surveillance performance from 2005 to 2015. The none-polio AFP rate improved from 2.6/100,000 children <15 years old in 2005 to 3.1 in 2015, while stool adequacy has also improved from 78.5% in 2005 to 92 % in 2015. At the national level, most AFP surveillance performance indicators are achieved and maintained over the years, however, AFP surveillance performance at sub-national level varies greatly particularly in pastoralist regions. In addition, the minimum standard for non-polio enterovirus isolation rate (10%) was not achieved except in 2007 and 2009. Nevertheless, the proportion of cases investigated within 2 days of notification and the proportion of specimens arriving in good condition within 3 days to the laboratory were maintained throughout all the years reviewed. We found that the AFP surveillance system was efficient and progressively improved over the past 10 years in Ethiopia. However, the subnational AFP surveillance performance varies and were not maintained, particularly in pastoralist regions, and the non-polio enterovirus isolation rate declined since 2010. We recommend the institution of community-based surveillance in pastoralist regions and conduct detail review of the laboratory sensitivity and the reverse cold chain system.

Analysis of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in Ethiopia, 2005-2015: progress and challenges

PubMed Central

Tegegne, Ayesheshem Ademe; Fiona, Braka; Shebeshi, Meseret Eshetu; Hailemariam, Fasal Teshager; Aregay, Aron Kassahun; Beyene, Berhane; Asemahgne, Eshetu Wassie; Woyessa, Daddi Jima; Woyessa, Abyot Bekele

2017-01-01

Introduction Ethiopia joined the global effort to eradicate polio in 1996, and interrupted indigenous wild poliovirus transmission by December 2001. However, the country experienced numerous separate importations during 2003-2013. Sensitive Acute Flaccid (AFP) surveillance is critical to rule out undetected circulation of WPV and VDPVs. Methods In this study described, we used a retrospective descriptive study design to characterize the surveillance performance from 2005 to 2015. Results The none-polio AFP rate improved from 2.6/100,000 children <15 years old in 2005 to 3.1 in 2015, while stool adequacy has also improved from 78.5% in 2005 to 92 % in 2015. At the national level, most AFP surveillance performance indicators are achieved and maintained over the years, however, AFP surveillance performance at sub-national level varies greatly particularly in pastoralist regions. In addition, the minimum standard for non-polio enterovirus isolation rate (10%) was not achieved except in 2007 and 2009. Nevertheless, the proportion of cases investigated within 2 days of notification and the proportion of specimens arriving in good condition within 3 days to the laboratory were maintained throughout all the years reviewed. Conclusion We found that the AFP surveillance system was efficient and progressively improved over the past 10 years in Ethiopia. However, the subnational AFP surveillance performance varies and were not maintained, particularly in pastoralist regions, and the non-polio enterovirus isolation rate declined since 2010. We recommend the institution of community-based surveillance in pastoralist regions and conduct detail review of the laboratory sensitivity and the reverse cold chain system. PMID:28890751

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. Methods Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. Results HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines. Conclusions In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends. PMID:21609449

Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Mast, M Alisa

2013-11-01

The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970-2010 and 1990-2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO₂ emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

Trends and patterns of urbanization in Egypt during the 1966-1976 intercensal period.

PubMed

Morcos, W S

1980-01-01

The author analyzes the decline in the rate of urbanization and the effects of this decline on traditional patterns of urbanization in Egypt between 1966 and 1976. Trends and patterns of urbanization in the twentieth century are briefly examined. National policies and their effects on urbanization patterns are reviewed (SUMMARY IN ARA)

Timberland area change in the Lake States: past trends, causes, and projections.

Treesearch

Andrew Plantinga; Joseph Buongiorno; Ralph J. Alig; John S. Jr. Spencer

1989-01-01

Between the early 1960's and the mid-1980's, the area of timberland in the Lake States declined by about 3 million acres. This study confirms the influences of population, economics, ownership, and trends in other land uses on timberland area. Future declines are expected, but probably at a slower rate.

Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

PubMed

Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

2011-03-01

To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Cause-specific mortality trends in The Netherlands, 1875-1992: a formal analysis of the epidemiologic transition.

PubMed

Wolleswinkel-van den Bosch, J H; Looman, C W; Van Poppel, F W; Mackenbach, J P

1997-08-01

The objective of this study is to produce a detailed yet robust description of the epidemiologic transition in The Netherlands. National mortality data on sex, age, cause of death and calendar year (1875-1992) were extracted from official publications. For the entire period, 27 causes of death could be distinguished, while 65 causes (nested within the 27) could be studied from 1901 onwards. Cluster analysis was used to determine groups of causes of death with similar trend curves over a period of time with respect to age- and sex-standardized mortality rates. With respect to the 27 causes, three important clusters were found: (1) infectious diseases which declined rapidly in the late 19th century (e.g. typhoid fever), (2) infectious diseases which showed a less precipitous decline (e.g. respiratory tuberculosis), and (3) non-infectious diseases which showed an increasing trend during most of the period 1875-1992 (e.g. cancer). The 65 causes provided more detail. Seven important clusters were found: four consisted mainly of infectious diseases, including a new cluster that declined rapidly after the Second World War (WW2) (e.g. acute bronchitis/influenza) and a new cluster showing an increasing trend in the 1920s and 1930s before declining in the years thereafter (e.g. appendicitis). Three clusters mainly contained non-infectious diseases, including a new one that declined from 1900 onwards (e.g. cancer of the stomach) and a new one that increased until WW2 but declined thereafter (e.g. chronic rheumatic heart disease). The results suggest that the conventional interpretation of the epidemiologic transition, which assumes a uniform decline of infectious diseases and a uniform increase of non-infectious diseases, needs to be modified.

Solar activity indices as a proxy for the variation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over Bahir Dar, Ethiopia during the year 2010-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassa, Tsegaye; Tilahun, Samson; Damtie, Baylie

2017-09-01

This paper was aimed at investigating the solar variations of vTEC as a function of solar activity parameters, EUV and F10.7 radio flux. The daily values of ionospheric vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) were observed using a dual frequency GPS receiver deployed at Bahir Dar (11.6°N and 37.36°E), Ethiopia. Measurements were taken during the period of 2010-2014 for successive five years and analysis was done on only quiet day observations. A quadratic fit was used as a model to describe the daily variation of vTEC in relation to solar parameters. Linear and non-linear coefficients of the vTEC variations were calculated in order to capture the trend of the variation. The variation of vTEC have showed good agreement with the trend of solar parameters in almost all of the days we consider during the period of our observations. We have explicitly observed days with insignificant TECU deviation (eg. modeling with respect to EUV, DOY = 49 in 2010 and modeling with respect to F10.7, DOY = 125 in 2012 and the like) and days with maximum deviation (about 50 TECU). A maximum deviation were observed, on average, during months of equinox whereas minimum during solstice months. This implies that there is a need to consider more parameters, including EUV and F10.7, that can affect the variation of vTEC during equinox seasons. Relatively, small deviations was observed in modeling vTEC as a function of EUV compared to that of the variation due to F10.7 cm flux. This may also tell us that EUV can be more suitable in modeling the solar variation of vTEC especially for longterm trends. Even though, the linear trend of solar variations of vTEC was frequently observed, significant saturation and amplification trends of the solar variations of vTEC were also observed to some extent across the months of the years we have analyzed. This mixed trend of the solar variation of vTEC implies the need for thorough investigation on the effect of solar parameters on TEC. However, based on long-term dataset, we came to conclude that the solar variations of vTEC is dominated by its linear pattern.

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

2011-01-01

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, F.J.; Dorazio, R.M.; Rice, K.G.; Cherkiss, M.; Jeffery, B.

2011-01-01

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001-2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations. ?? 2011 US Government.

Declining trend of peritoneal dialysis: a single-center experience.

PubMed

Agraharkar, Mahendra; Henry, Sharon; Martinez, Dora; Bonds, Becky

2002-01-01

Peritoneal dialysis (PD), despite being advantageous to patient, physician, and society, has failed to show the growth it deserves. On the contrary, PD utilization has declined. Over the past several years, we have noticed a decline in the number of our home dialysis patients. When compared to the national trend, we find our trend to be not significantly different from other centers across the country. A similar trend has also been noticed in Canada. Although several reasons may exist for the decline, we intend to concentrate on local factors. In the first quarter of 1996, we had a total of 46 adult and pediatric end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on PD. That number decreased to 23 at the end of fourth quarter of the year 2001. The losses in our program far exceeded the gains. We lost our patients mainly to in-center hemodialysis (ICHD) and to transplantation. Peritonitis and membrane failure remained the major grounds for the loss to ICHD. In our center, geographic location and a lack of structured pre-ESRD education probably played a major role in the decline. Many of our patients are from distant counties that have a contract with University of Texas Medical Branch for providing health care to their indigent population. However, once those patients develop complications, the counties rely on the expertise of local physicians and nephrologists.

Trends in Student Aid, 2014. Trends in Higher Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, Sandy; Elliott, Diane Cardenas; Ma, Jennifer; Bell, D'Wayne

2014-01-01

After increasing by 18% (in inflation-adjusted dollars) between 2007-08 and 2010-11, the total amount students borrowed in federal and non-federal education loans declined by 13% between 2010-11 and 2013-14. Growth in full-time equivalent (FTE) postsecondary enrollment of 16% over the first three years, followed by a decline of 4% over the next…

Decreases in adolescent weekly alcohol use in Europe and North America: evidence from 28 countries from 2002 to 2010

PubMed Central

Raaijmakers, Quinten; ter Bogt, Tom; Bendtsen, Pernille; Farhat, Tilda; Ferreira, Mafalda; Godeau, Emmanuelle; Kuntsche, Emmanuel; Molcho, Michal; Pförtner, Timo-Kolja; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vieno, Alessio; Vollebergh, Wilma; Pickett, William

2015-01-01

Background: This study examined trends in adolescent weekly alcohol use between 2002 and 2010 in 28 European and North American countries. Methods: Analyses were based on data from 11-, 13- and 15-year-old adolescents who participated in the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study in 2002, 2006 and 2010. Results: Weekly alcohol use declined in 20 of 28 countries and in all geographic regions, from 12.1 to 6.1% in Anglo-Saxon countries, 11.4 to 7.8% in Western Europe, 9.3 to 4.1% in Northern Europe and 16.3 to 9.9% in Southern Europe. Even in Eastern Europe, where a stable trend was observed between 2002 and 2006, weekly alcohol use declined between 2006 and 2010 from 12.3 to 10.1%. The decline was evident in all gender and age subgroups. Conclusions: These consistent trends may be attributable to increased awareness of the harmful effects of alcohol for adolescent development and the implementation of associated prevention efforts, or changes in social norms and conditions. Although the declining trend was remarkably similar across countries, prevalence rates still differed considerably across countries. PMID:25805792

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

PubMed

Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

2009-03-01

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Progress in reducing premature deaths in Wisconsin counties, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Nonnweiler, Thomas; Pollock, Elizabeth A; Rudolph, Barbara; Remington, Patrick L

2013-10-01

Measuring trends in a county's premature death rate is a straightforward method that can be used to assess a county's progress in improving the health of the population. Age-adjusted premature death rate data from Wisconsin Interactive Statistics on Health for persons less than 75 years of age were collected for the years 2000-2010. Overall 10-year percent change was calculated, compared, and ranked for all Wisconsin counties during this time period. Progress was assessed as excellent (25.0% or greater decline), very good (20.0%-24.9% decline), good (10.0%-19.9% decline), fair (0.0%-9.9% decline), or poor (any increase). Overall, premature death rates in counties declined by 16.8% over the 10-year period 2000-2010 in Wisconsin. Trends varied by county, with 8, 15, 37, 9, and 3 counties having excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor progress, respectively. The most improvement was seen in Kewaunee County (decreasing 38.3%) and the least progress in Lafayette County (increasing 4.8%). Trends in premature death rates were not related to the county's initial death rate, population, rurality, or income. Although premature death rates declined overall in Wisconsin during the 2000s, this progress varied across counties and was not related to baseline mortality rates or other county characteristics.

Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa

2013-01-01

The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970–2010 and 1990–2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO2 emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2009-01-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic Monitoring Station was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more ''weathered'' secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from ''new'' sources.

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2012-05-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji.

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Carter, Karen; Naidu, Shivnay; Linhart, Christine; Azim, Syed; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D

2013-12-01

To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15-59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Over 1975-2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i-Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i-Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i-Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i-Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Despite IMR declines over 1975-2008, LE for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i-Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15-59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non-communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.

Post-White-nose syndrome trends in Virginia’s cave bats, 2008-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Karen E.; Reynolds, Richard J.; Orndorff, Wil; Ford, W. Mark; Hobson, Christopher S.

2015-01-01

Since its 2009 detection in Virginia hibernacula, the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans causing White-nose Syndrome (WNS) has had a marked impact on cave bats locally. From 2008-2013, we documented numeric and physiologic changes in cave bats through fall swarm (FS), early hibernation (EH), and late hibernation (LH) capture and banding surveys at 18 hibernacula in western Virginia. We coupled active surveys with passive biennial winter counts in 2009, 2011, and 2013. We compared individual body mass index (BMI) across years for FS, EH, and LH hibernation to determine if WNS impacts on extant bats would be manifested by changes in body condition (as anecdotally observed elsewhere for WNS-impacted bats) as well as a population reduction. To estimate percent declines in bat presence or relative activity, we used FS capture per-unit-effort data, and the winter hibernacula absolute counts. We captured 4,524 bats of eight species, with species-specific capture success declining by 75-100% post-WNS. Little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) exhibited the greatest declines in winter hibernacula counts (AVG. = 99.0% decline), followed by tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus; 89.5% decline) and Indiana bats (M. sodalis; 33.5% decline). Graphical analyses of captures-per-trap-hour in FS showed declines for little brown bats, tri-colored bats, and northern long-eared bats (M. septentrionalis), but suggest a modest rebound of Indiana bat numbers. Fall swarm trends in BMI suggested some drops post-WNS exposure, but these trends were not consistent across sexes or seasonal time blocks. Our inconclusive BMI metrics and little brown bat band recapture data suggest little competitive advantage or selection for surviving bats. Lesser (but apparent) declines in Indiana bat numbers mirrors trends seen elsewhere regionally, and band recoveries do show that some individuals are persisting. Additional surveys will determine if bats in Virginia will persist or face extirpation due to presumed low recruitment and survivorship.

Trends in Reported Foodborne Illness in the United States; 1996-2013.

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2016-08-01

Retrospective review is a key to designing effective food safety measures. The analysis examines trends in the reported incidence of illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013 with and without specifying a model form for trend. The findings indicate early declines in reported incidence followed by a period of no significant trend for Campylobacter, Listeria, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157, and Yersinia. The results are inconclusive about whether there is no trend or an increasing trend for Salmonella. While Shigella exhibits a continuous decline, Vibrio exhibits a continuous increase. Overall, the findings indicate a lack of evidence for continuous reduction in illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Implementation of Sustainable Soil Management Practices to Improve Crop Production in the Different Ethiopian Agro Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Moreno, R.; Gameda, S.; Diaz Alvarez, M. C.; Selasie, Y. G.

2012-04-01

Agriculture in Ethiopia is one of first priority since close to 10 In this context, the Ethiopian crop production faces to the following soil management challenges: lack of updated soil data, macro and micro nutrient depletion, acidity, salinity and soil surface erosion and crusting. One of the biggest issues is the loss of arable land, above 137 T/yr, reaching during some particularly dried periods until 300 T/yr. In this context, the authors constituted a working group of experts from Spanish and Ethiopian universities, local producers and international and governmental organisms to analyse the problems related to the different agro ecological zones found in Ethiopia and the management practices of different local producers. The study produced the trends to implement in the different areas to improve soil management practices in order to contribute to increase the crop production mainly to achieve food security problems. The analyse produced different working fields for the next years for addressing soil degradation, improving land resources management practices, increasing agricultural productivity, updating the available soil data, developing an international program of education, transferring of knowledge from similar study cases and implementing economical tools to help producers to assure income after severe edapho-climatic events. The practical work and the projects developed for the next period is addressed to smallholder farms belonging to the different 34 agro ecological zones identified in Ethiopia, each of them with very specific environmental, cultural and soil management practices.

Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Ethiopia: a Retrospective Analysis of District Level Outbreaks, 2007-2012.

PubMed

Jemberu, W T; Mourits, M C M; Sahle, M; Siraw, B; Vernooij, J C M; Hogeveen, H

2016-12-01

This study aimed at determining the incidence, distribution, risk factors, and causal serotypes of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Ethiopia based on 5 years of retrospective outbreak data (September 2007 until August 2012). District level outbreak data were collected from 115 randomly selected districts using a questionnaire administered to district animal health officers. The national incidence of FMD outbreaks during the study period was 1.45 outbreaks per five district years. Outbreaks were geographically widespread affecting all major regional states in the country and were more frequent in the central, southern, and southeastern parts of the country. Neither long-term nor seasonal trends were observed in the incidence of outbreaks. A mixed effects logistic regression analysis revealed that the type of production system (market oriented system versus subsistence systems), presence of a major livestock market and/or route, and adjacency to a national parks or wildlife sanctuary were found to be associated with increased risk of outbreaks in the districts. FMD virus serotypes O, A, SAT 2, and SAT 1 were identified as the causal serotypes of the outbreaks during the study period. Whereas O was the dominant serotype, SAT 2 was the serotype that showed increase in relative frequency of occurrence. The estimated incidence of outbreaks is useful in assessing the economic impacts of the disease, and the identified risk factors provide important knowledge to target a progressive FMD control policy for Ethiopia. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Adverse Perinatal Outcomes among Immigrant Women from Ethiopia in Israel.

PubMed

Calderon-Margalit, Ronit; Sherman, Dan; Manor, Orly; Kurzweil, Yaffa

2015-06-01

Immigration from Ethiopia to Israel started about 30 years ago. We aimed to compare birth outcomes between Israeli women of Ethiopian origin and Israeli-born, non-Ethiopian women. We hypothesized a higher frequency of adverse birth outcomes among Ethiopian women and a trend of improvement among those who were raised in Israel since early childhood. This is a descriptive study, comparing birth outcomes of Ethiopian (n = 1,319) and non-Ethiopian women (n = 27,307) who gave birth in a medical center in Central Israel in 2002 to 2009. Ethiopian women were further categorized by age at immigration. Logistic regressions were constructed to compare the incidence of adverse birth outcomes between Ethiopian and non-Ethiopian women, controlling for potential confounders. Ethiopian women had about twice the incidence of very and extremely preterm births, compared with non-Ethiopians. Ethiopian women had twice the odds for neonates who were either small for gestational age or had low 5-minute Apgar scores. Ethiopian women had about threefold increased risk of stillbirths (OR 2.9 [95% CI 1.87-4.49]). No trend of improvement was noted for women who were raised in Israel from early childhood. Ethiopian women are at increased risk of adverse birth outcomes. Future research is needed to investigate the underlying causes for the increased risks and lack of improvement among those who were raised in Israel that will lead to effective interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mortality level and predictors in a rural Ethiopian population: community based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Weldearegawi, Berhe; Spigt, Mark; Berhane, Yemane; Dinant, Geertjan

2014-01-01

Over the last fifty years the world has seen enormous decline in mortality rates. However, in low-income countries, where vital registration systems are absent, mortality statistics are not easily available. The recent economic growth of Ethiopia and the parallel large scale healthcare investments make investigating mortality figures worthwhile. Longitudinal health and demographic surveillance data collected from September 11, 2009 to September 10, 2012 were analysed. We computed incidence of mortality, overall and stratified by background variables. Poisson regression was used to test for a linear trend in the standardized mortality rates. Cox-regression analysis was used to identify predictors of mortality. Households located at <2300 meter and ≥ 2300 meter altitude were defined to be midland and highland, respectively. An open cohort, with a baseline population of 66,438 individuals, was followed for three years to generate 194,083 person-years of observation. The crude mortality rate was 4.04 (95% CI: 3.77, 4.34) per 1,000 person-years. During the follow-up period, incidence of mortality significantly declined among under five (P<0.001) and 5-14 years old (P<0.001), whereas it increased among 65 years and above (P<0.001). Adjusted for other covariates, mortality was higher in males (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.66), rural population (HR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.32, 2.31), highland (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.40) and among those widowed (HR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.81, 2.80) and divorced (HR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.30, 2.48). Overall mortality rate was low. The level and patterns of mortality indicate changes in the epidemiology of major causes of death. Certain population groups had significantly higher mortality rates and further research is warranted to identify causes of higher mortality in those groups.

Reproductive behaviour in the 1980s: Europe revisited. Council of Europe: an account of the work of a committee of experts on fertility trends.

PubMed

Deven, F

1985-01-01

This article highlights the findings of a 3-stage analysis conducted in 1982-85 by the Council of Europe Committee of Experts on Fertility Trends: The 1st phase involved a demographic analysis of reproductive behavior in the past decade, the 2nd focused on the background of recent fertility trends, and the 3rd examined possible consequences of these trends. Participating countries included Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland. During the 1970s; most of these countries experienced a continuation of the fertility decline begun in the mid-60s, resulting in the large majority of countries in below-replacement reproduction. In general, the effect of the fertility decline on the birth rate has been partially compensated by the favorable age structure of the reproductive age population. In the 1st half of the 1970s, both nuptiality and reproductive behavior in marriage contributed to the fertility decline; in the 2nd half, marital fertility showed increases. The fertility decline in the 1st half of the 1970s largely reflected the steep decline in fertility among younger age groups, whereas a rise in the fertility in the older age groups was a characteristic of the late 1970s. However, the stabilization or even slight increase in fertility noted in the late 1970s in several European countries reverted to a decline in the early 1980s. In general, small family size appears to be viewed as a good compromise between pyschological and economic costs and benefits. These low fertility trends have had a dramatic effect on household composition and have also facilitated women's personal growth and economic independence. These trends are expected to lead to demographic aging of the population and alleviation of pressures on the labor market. All such changes will require adaptive population policy measures. It is important that such policies do not endanger achievements of modernization such as human rights, fertility regulation, and female employment.

Trends in Bullying, Physical Fighting, and Weapon Carrying Among 6th- Through 10th-Grade Students From 1998 to 2010: Findings From a National Study

PubMed Central

Brooks-Russell, Ashley; Wang, Jing; Iannotti, Ronald J.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined trends from 1998 to 2010 in bullying, bullying victimization, physical fighting, and weapon carrying and variations by gender, grade level, and race/ethnicity among US adolescents. Methods. The Health Behavior in School-Aged Children surveys of nationally representative samples of students in grades 6 through 10 were completed in 1998 (n = 15 686), 2002 (n = 14 818), 2006 (n = 9229), and 2010 (n = 10 926). We assessed frequency of bullying behaviors, physical fighting, and weapon carrying as well as weapon type and subtypes of bullying. We conducted logistic regression analyses, accounting for the complex sampling design, to identify trends and variations by demographic factors. Results. Bullying perpetration, bullying victimization, and physical fighting declined from 1998 to 2010. Weapon carrying increased for White students only. Declines in bullying perpetration and victimization were greater for boys than for girls. Declines in bullying perpetration and physical fighting were greater for middle-school students than for high-school students. Conclusions. Declines in most violent behaviors are encouraging; however, lack of decline in weapon carrying merits further attention. PMID:24825213

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2006, Featuring Colorectal Trends and Impact of Interventions (Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment) to Reduce Future Rates

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Ward, Elizabeth; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie; Zauber, Ann G.; Anderson, Robert N.; Jemal, Ahmedin; Schymura, Maria J.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Seeff, Laura C.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Goede, S. Luuk; Ries, Lynn A. G.

2009-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information about cancer occurrence and trends in the United States (U.S.). This year’s report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions. Methods Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and information on deaths from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 U.S. population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2006) trends and short-term fixed interval (1997–2006) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined significantly declined (P < .05) in the most recent time period for men and women overall and for most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the 3 most common cancers in men (i.e., lung and prostate cancers and CRC) and for two of the 3 leading cancers in women (i.e., breast cancer and CRC). The long-term trends for lung cancer mortality in women showed smaller and smaller increases until 2003 when there was a change to a non-significant decline. Microsimulation modeling shows that declines in CRC death rates are consistent with a relatively large contribution from screening and with a smaller but demonstrable impact of risk factor reductions and improved treatments. These declines are projected to continue if risk factor modification, screening, and treatment remain at current rates, but could be further accelerated with favorable trends in risk factors and higher utilization of screening and optimal treatment. Conclusions Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, rising incidence and mortality for some cancers are of concern. PMID:19998273

Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

PubMed Central

Bishai, David; Opuni, Marjorie

2009-01-01

Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR) time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model) and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model). We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR) on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log transform. PMID:19698144

Trends in amphibian occupancy in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Michael J.; Miller, David A.W.; Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Bailey, Larissa L.; Fellers, Gary M.; Fisher, Robert N.; Sadinski, Walter J.; Waddle, Hardin; Walls, Susan C.

2013-01-01

Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized.

Trends in health inequalities in 27 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Valverde, José Rubio; Artnik, Barbara; Bopp, Matthias; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Deboosere, Patrick; Kalediene, Ramune; Kovács, Katalin; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Menvielle, Gwenn; Regidor, Enrique; Rychtaříková, Jitka; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Vineis, Paolo; White, Chris; Wojtyniak, Bogdan; Hu, Yannan; Nusselder, Wilma J

2018-06-19

Unfavorable health trends among the lowly educated have recently been reported from the United States. We analyzed health trends by education in European countries, paying particular attention to the possibility of recent trend interruptions, including interruptions related to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. We collected and harmonized data on mortality from ca 1980 to ca 2014 for 17 countries covering 9.8 million deaths and data on self-reported morbidity from ca 2002 to ca 2014 for 27 countries covering 350,000 survey respondents. We used interrupted time-series analyses to study changes over time and country-fixed effects analyses to study the impact of crisis-related economic conditions on health outcomes. Recent trends were more favorable than in previous decades, particularly in Eastern Europe, where mortality started to decline among lowly educated men and where the decline in less-than-good self-assessed health accelerated, resulting in some narrowing of health inequalities. In Western Europe, mortality has continued to decline among the lowly and highly educated, and although the decline of less-than-good self-assessed health slowed in countries severely hit by the financial crisis, this affected lowly and highly educated equally. Crisis-related economic conditions were not associated with widening health inequalities. Our results show that the unfavorable trends observed in the United States are not found in Europe. There has also been no discernible short-term impact of the crisis on health inequalities at the population level. Both findings suggest that European countries have been successful in avoiding an aggravation of health inequalities.

Assessment of source of information for polio supplementary immunization activities in 2014 and 2015, Somali, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bedada, Selamawit Yilma; Gallagher, Kathleen; Aregay, Aron Kassahun; Mohammed, Bashir; Maalin, Mohammed Adem; Hassen, Hassen Abdisemed; Ali, Yusuf Mohammed; Braka, Fiona; Kilebou, Pierre M'pele

2017-01-01

Communication is key for the successful implementation of polio vaccination campaigns. The purpose of this study is to review and analyse the sources of information utilized by caregivers during polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in Somali, Ethiopia in 2014 and 2015. Data on sources of information about the polio campaign were collected post campaign from caregivers by trained data collectors as part of house to house independent monitoring. The sources of information analysed in this paper include town criers (via megaphones), health workers, religious leaders, kebele leaders (Kebele is the lowest administrative structure in Ethiopia), radio, television, text message and others. The repetition of these sources of information was analysed across years and zones for trends. Polio vaccination campaign coverage was also reviewed by year and zones within the Somali region in parallel with the major sources of information used in the respective year and zones. 57,745 responses were used for this analysis but the responses were received from < or = 57,745 individuals since some of them may provide more than one response. Moreover, because sampling of households is conducted independently during each round of independent monitoring, the same household may have been included more than once in our analysis. The methodology used for independent monitoring does not allow for the calculation of response rates. Monitors go from house to house until information from 20 households is received. From the total 57,745 responses reviewed, over 37% of respondents reported that town criers were their source for information about the 2014 and 2015 polio SIAs. Zonal trends in using town criers as a major source of information in both study years remained consistent except in two zones. 87.5% of zones that reported at least 90% coverage during both study years had utilized town criers as a major source of information while the rest (12.5%) used health workers. We found that town criers were consistently the major source of information about the polio campaigns for Somali region parents and caregivers during polio immunization days held in 2014 and 2015. Health workers and kebele leaders were also important sources of information about the polio campaign for parents.

Prevalence of Smoking in Movies As Perceived by Teenagers

PubMed Central

Choi, Kelvin; Forster, Jean L.; Erickson, Darin J.; Lazovich, DeAnn; Southwell, Brian G.

2011-01-01

Background Smoking in movies is prevalent. However, use of content analysis to describe trends in smoking in movies has provided mixed results and has not tapped what adolescents actually perceive. Purpose To assess the prospective trends in the prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers, and identify predictors associated with these trends. Methods Using data from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study collected during 2000–2006 when participants were aged between 12 and 18 years (N=4735), latent variable growth models were employed to describe the longitudinal trends in the perceived prevalence of smoking in movies using a 4-level scale (never to most of the time) measured every 6 months, and examined associations between these trends and demographic, smoking-related attitudinal and socio-environmental predictors. Analysis was conducted in 2009. Results At baseline, about 50% of participants reported seeing smoking in movies “some of the time”, and another 36% reported “most of the time”. The prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers declined over time, and the decline was steeper in those who were aged 14–16 years than those who were younger at baseline (p≤0.05). Despite the decline, teenagers still reported seeing smoking in movies some of the time. Teenagers who reported more close friends who smoked also reported a higher prevalence of smoking in movies at baseline (regression coefficients: 0.04–0.18, p<0.01). Conclusions Teenagers' perception of the prevalence of smoking in movies declined over time, which may be attributable to changes made by the movie industry. Despite the decline, teenagers were still exposed to a moderate amount of smoking imagery. Interventions that further reduce teenage exposure to smoking in movies may be needed to have an effect on adolescent smoking. PMID:21767724

Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

PubMed

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2016-04-01

Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

PubMed Central

Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

2015-01-01

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

Volunteer Conservation Action Data Reveals Large-Scale and Long-Term Negative Population Trends of a Widespread Amphibian, the Common Toad (Bufo bufo).

PubMed

Petrovan, Silviu O; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2016-01-01

Rare and threatened species are the most frequent focus of conservation science and action. With the ongoing shift from single-species conservation towards the preservation of ecosystem services, there is a greater need to understand abundance trends of common species because declines in common species can disproportionately impact ecosystems function. We used volunteer-collected data in two European countries, the United Kingdom (UK) and Switzerland, since the 1970s to assess national and regional trends for one of Europe's most abundant amphibian species, the common toad (Bufo bufo). Millions of toads were moved by volunteers across roads during this period in an effort to protect them from road traffic. For Switzerland, we additionally estimated trends for the common frog (Rana temporaria), a similarly widespread and common amphibian species. We used state-space models to account for variability in detection and effort and included only populations with at least 5 years of data; 153 populations for the UK and 141 for Switzerland. Common toads declined continuously in each decade in both countries since the 1980s. Given the declines, this common species almost qualifies for International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red-listing over this period despite volunteer conservation efforts. Reasons for the declines and wider impacts remain unknown. By contrast, common frog populations were stable or increasing in Switzerland, although there was evidence of declines after 2003. "Toads on Roads" schemes are vital citizen conservation action projects, and the data from such projects can be used for large scale trend estimations of widespread amphibians. We highlight the need for increased research into the status of common amphibian species in addition to conservation efforts focusing on rare and threatened species.

Trends in preterm birth and perinatal mortality among singletons: United States, 1989 through 2000.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Joseph, K S; Oyelese, Yinka; Demissie, Kitaw; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2005-05-01

Despite the recent increase in preterm birth in the United States, trends in preterm birth subtypes have not been adequately examined. We examined trends in preterm birth among singletons following ruptured membranes, medical indications, and spontaneous preterm birth and evaluated the impact of these trends on perinatal mortality. A population-based, retrospective cohort study comprising 46,375,578 women (16% blacks) who delivered singleton births in the United States, 1989 through 2000, was performed. Rates of preterm birth (< 37 weeks), their subtypes, and associated perinatal mortality (stillbirths at >/= 22 weeks plus neonatal deaths within 28 days), before and after adjustment for potential confounders, were derived from ecological logistic regression models. Preterm birth rates increased by 14% (95% confidence interval 13-15%) among whites from 8.3% to 9.4% and decreased by 15% (95% confidence interval 14-16%) among blacks from 18.5% to 16.2% between 1989 and 2000. Among whites, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 23%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 55%, and spontaneous preterm birth increased by 3%. Among blacks, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 37%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 32%, and spontaneous preterm birth decreased by 27%. The largest decline in perinatal mortality among whites was associated with increases in medically indicated preterm birth, whereas the largest decline in perinatal mortality among blacks was associated with declines in preterm birth following ruptured membranes and spontaneous preterm birth. Temporal trends in preterm birth varied substantially based on underlying subtype and maternal race. The recent increase in medically indicated preterm birth was associated with a favorable reduction in perinatal mortality.

[Ethiopia in Israel--an ethnopharmacological study of Ethiopian immigrants in Israel].

PubMed

Danino, Dikla; Amar, Zohar

2008-07-01

There is a large Ethiopian community in Israel which preserves its unique culture and customs. Many of the members of this community still use traditional methods of healing, such as blood-letting, burns, tattooing, amulets, healing water, incense and various medicinal herbs that are prescribed based on the diagnosis of the disease. This study deals with documenting the use of the medicinal drugs implemented by the Ethiopian community in Israel, which is a rapidly vanishing world. The study is based on interviews with hundreds of informants, among them traditional healers, and it surveyed some fifty shops which sell Ethiopian medicinal drugs and spices. The survey brought to light a list of medical materials which are found in the Ethiopian markets in Israel including 89 kinds of plants (some 85%); 6 different minerals (some 6%); 5 types of animals (some 4.5%); and 5 substances of various origins (some 4.5%). Most of the drugs are imported from Ethiopia to Israel, since they are endemic. There are also other medicinal drugs that are gathered in the field in Israel or brought through personal import; in total, our estimate is that there are approximately 150 different kinds of medicinal drugs in use in Israel. This is a relatively small number when compared to the inventory of drugs in the land of origin, Ethiopia. The decline in the use of traditional drugs, due to limited availability and processes of modernization in the Ethiopian community in Israel, heightens the importance of a study that documents this unique culture. The study is also of assistance to the modern medical authorities in order to better understand and become more familiar with the Ethiopian community and with its needs and special practices, in terms of both prevention and treatment.

Determinants of adaptation choices to climate change by sheep and goat farmers in Northern Ethiopia: the case of Southern and Central Tigray, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Feleke, Fikeremaryam Birara; Berhe, Melaku; Gebru, Getachew; Hoag, Dana

2016-01-01

The livestock sector serves as a foremost source of revenue for rural people, particularly in many developing countries. Among the livestock species, sheep and goats are the main source of livelihood for rural people in Ethiopia; they can quickly multiply, resilient and are easily convertible to cash to meet financial needs of the rural producers. The multiple contributions of sheep and goat and other livestock to rural farmers are however being challenged by climate change and variability. Farmers are responding to the impacts of climate change by adopting different mechanisms, where choices are largely dependent on many factors. This study, therefore, aims to analyze the determinants of choices of adaptation practices to climate change that causes scarcity of feed, heat stress, shortage of water and pasture on sheep and goat production. The study used 318 sample households drawn from potential livestock producing districts representing 3 agro-ecological settings. Data was analyzed using simple descriptive statistical tools, a multivariate probit model and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Most of the respondents (98.6 %) noted that climate is changing. Respondents' perception is that climate change is expressed through increased temperature (88 %) and decline in rainfall (73 %) over the last 10 years. The most commonly used adaptation strategy was marketing during forage shock (96.5 %), followed by home feeding (89.6 %). The estimation from the multivariate probit model showed that access to information, farming experience, number of households in one village, distance to main market, income of household, and agro-ecological settings influenced farmers' adaptation choices to climate change. Furthermore, OLS revealed that the adaptation strategies had positive influence on the household income.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates - United States, 2000-2015.

PubMed

Yang, Quanhe; Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G

2017-09-08

The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000-2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000-2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003-2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006-2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013-2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013-2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates — United States, 2000–2015

PubMed Central

Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L.; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G.

2017-01-01

Introduction The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Methods Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000–2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Results Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000–2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003–2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006–2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013–2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013–2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist. PMID:28880858

Prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers longitudinal trends and predictors.

PubMed

Choi, Kelvin; Forster, Jean L; Erickson, Darin J; Lazovich, Deann; Southwell, Brian G

2011-08-01

Smoking in movies is prevalent. However, use of content analysis to describe trends in smoking in movies has provided mixed results and has not tapped what adolescents actually perceive. To assess the prospective trends in the prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers and identify predictors associated with these trends. Using data from the Minnesota Adolescent Community Cohort Study collected during 2000-2006 when participants were aged between 12 and 18 years (N=4735), latent variable growth models were employed to describe the longitudinal trends in the perceived prevalence of smoking in movies using a four-level scale (never to most of the time) measured every 6 months, and examined associations between these trends and demographic, smoking-related attitudinal and socio-environmental predictors. Analysis was conducted in 2009. At baseline, about 50% of participants reported seeing smoking in movies some of the time, and another 36% reported most of the time. The prevalence of smoking in movies as perceived by teenagers declined over time, and the decline was steeper in those who were aged 14-16 years than those who were younger at baseline (p≤0.05). Despite the decline, teenagers still reported seeing smoking in movies some of the time. Teenagers who reported more close friends who smoked also reported a higher prevalence of smoking in movies at baseline (regression coefficients=0.04-0.18, p<0.01). Teenagers' perception of the prevalence of smoking in movies declined over time, which may be attributable to changes made by the movie industry. Despite the decline, teenagers were still exposed to a moderate amount of smoking imagery. Interventions that further reduce teenage exposure to smoking in movies may be needed to have an effect on adolescent smoking. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

PubMed Central

Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

2016-01-01

Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

PubMed

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

Declining death rates from hyperglycemic crisis among adults with diabetes, U.S., 1985-2002.

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Williams, Desmond E; Narayan, K M Venkat; Geiss, Linda S

2006-09-01

To examine trends in death rates for hyperglycemic crisis (diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state) among adults with diabetes in the U.S. from 1985 to 2002. Deaths with hyperglycemic crisis as the underlying cause were identified from national mortality data. Death rates were calculated using estimates of adults with diabetes from the National Health Interview Survey as the denominator and age adjusted to the 2000 U.S. population. The trends from 1985 to 2002 were tested using joinpoint regression analysis. Deaths due to hyperglycemic crisis dropped from 2,989 in 1985 to 2,459 in 2002. During the time period, age-adjusted death rates decreased from 42.4 to 23.8 per 100,000 adults with diabetes (4.4% decrease per year, P for trend <0.01). Death rates declined in all age-groups, with the greatest decrease occurring among individuals aged > or =65 years. Age-adjusted death rates fell for all race-sex subgroups, with black men experiencing the smallest decline. About one-fifth of deaths occurred at home or on arrival at the hospital, and the death rates for hyperglycemic crisis occurring at these places declined only modestly over time (2.1% decrease per year, P for trend = 0.049). Overall death rates due to hyperglycemic crisis among adults with diabetes have declined in the U.S. However, scope for further improvement remains, especially to further reduce death rates among black men and to prevent deaths occurring at home.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92).

PubMed

Bailer, A J; Stayner, L T; Stout, N A; Reed, L D; Gilbert, S J

1998-07-01

An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92)

PubMed Central

Bailer, A. J.; Stayner, L. T.; Stout, N. A.; Reed, L. D.; Gilbert, S. J.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. METHODS: Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. RESULTS: Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. CONCLUSIONS: This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.   PMID:9816383

Spatiotemporal Trends Analysis of Pyrethroid Sediment Concentrations Spanning 10 Years in a Residential Creek in California.

PubMed

Hall, Lenwood W; Anderson, Ronald D; Killen, William D

2016-02-01

The objective of this study was to assess temporal and spatial trends for eight pyrethroids monitored in sediment spanning 10 years from 2006 to 2015 in a residential stream in California (Pleasant Grove Creek). The timeframe for this study included sampling 3 years during a somewhat normal non-drought period (2006-2008) and 3 years during a severe drought period (2013-2015). Regression analysis of pyrethroid concentrations in Pleasant Grove Creek for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 using ½ the detection limit for nondetected concentrations showed statistically significant declining trends for cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, permethrin, and total pyrethoids. Additional trends analysis of the Pleasant Grove Creek pyrethroid data using only measured concentrations, without nondetected values, showed similar statistically significant declining trends for cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, esfenvalerate, fenpropathrin, permethrin, and total pyrethroids. Spatial trends analysis for the specific creek sites showed that six of the eight pyrethroids had a greater number of sites with statistically significant declining concentrations. Possible reasons for reduced pyrethroid concentrations in the stream bed in Pleasant Grove Creek during this 10-year period are label changes in 2012 that reduced residential use and lack of precipitation during the later severe drought years of 2013-2015.

On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

2017-01-01

Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

Geographic Variation and Factors Associated with Female Genital Mutilation among Reproductive Age Women in Ethiopia: A National Population Based Survey

PubMed Central

Setegn, Tesfaye; Lakew, Yihunie; Deribe, Kebede

2016-01-01

Background Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a common traditional practice in developing nations including Ethiopia. It poses complex and serious long-term health risks for women and girls and can lead to death. In Ethiopia, the geographic distribution and factors associated with FGM practices are poorly understood. Therefore, we assessed the spatial distribution and factors associated with FGM among reproductive age women in the country. Method We used population based national representative surveys. Data from two (2000 and 2005) Ethiopian demographic and health surveys (EDHS) were used in this analysis. Briefly, EDHS used a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling design. A total of 15,367 (from EDHS 2000) and 14,070 (from EDHS 2005) women of reproductive age (15–49 years) were included in the analysis. Three outcome variables were used (prevalence of FGM among women, prevalence of FGM among daughters and support for the continuation of FGM). The data were weighted and descriptive statistics (percentage change), bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out. Multicollinearity of variables was assessed using variance inflation factors (VIF) with a reference value of 10 before interpreting the final output. The geographic variation and clustering of weighted FGM prevalence were analyzed and visualized on maps using ArcGIS. Z-scores were used to assess the statistical difference of geographic clustering of FGM prevalence spots. Result The trend of FGM weighted prevalence has been decreasing. Being wealthy, Muslim and in higher age categories are associated with increased odds of FGM among women. Similarly, daughters from Muslim women have increased odds of experiencing FGM. Women in the higher age categories have increased odds of having daughters who experience FGM. The odds of FGM among daughters decrease with increased maternal education. Mass media exposure, being wealthy and higher paternal and maternal education are associated with decreased odds of women’s support of FGM continuation. FGM prevalence and geographic clustering showed variation across regions in Ethiopia. Conclusion Individual, economic, socio-demographic, religious and cultural factors played major roles in the existing practice and continuation of FGM. The significant geographic clustering of FGM was observed across regions in Ethiopia. Therefore, targeted and integrated interventions involving religious leaders in high FGM prevalence spot clusters and addressing the socio-economic and geographic inequalities are recommended to eliminate FGM. PMID:26741488

Geographic Variation and Factors Associated with Female Genital Mutilation among Reproductive Age Women in Ethiopia: A National Population Based Survey.

PubMed

Setegn, Tesfaye; Lakew, Yihunie; Deribe, Kebede

2016-01-01

Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a common traditional practice in developing nations including Ethiopia. It poses complex and serious long-term health risks for women and girls and can lead to death. In Ethiopia, the geographic distribution and factors associated with FGM practices are poorly understood. Therefore, we assessed the spatial distribution and factors associated with FGM among reproductive age women in the country. We used population based national representative surveys. Data from two (2000 and 2005) Ethiopian demographic and health surveys (EDHS) were used in this analysis. Briefly, EDHS used a stratified, two-stage cluster sampling design. A total of 15,367 (from EDHS 2000) and 14,070 (from EDHS 2005) women of reproductive age (15-49 years) were included in the analysis. Three outcome variables were used (prevalence of FGM among women, prevalence of FGM among daughters and support for the continuation of FGM). The data were weighted and descriptive statistics (percentage change), bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out. Multicollinearity of variables was assessed using variance inflation factors (VIF) with a reference value of 10 before interpreting the final output. The geographic variation and clustering of weighted FGM prevalence were analyzed and visualized on maps using ArcGIS. Z-scores were used to assess the statistical difference of geographic clustering of FGM prevalence spots. The trend of FGM weighted prevalence has been decreasing. Being wealthy, Muslim and in higher age categories are associated with increased odds of FGM among women. Similarly, daughters from Muslim women have increased odds of experiencing FGM. Women in the higher age categories have increased odds of having daughters who experience FGM. The odds of FGM among daughters decrease with increased maternal education. Mass media exposure, being wealthy and higher paternal and maternal education are associated with decreased odds of women's support of FGM continuation. FGM prevalence and geographic clustering showed variation across regions in Ethiopia. Individual, economic, socio-demographic, religious and cultural factors played major roles in the existing practice and continuation of FGM. The significant geographic clustering of FGM was observed across regions in Ethiopia. Therefore, targeted and integrated interventions involving religious leaders in high FGM prevalence spot clusters and addressing the socio-economic and geographic inequalities are recommended to eliminate FGM.

Declines in Employer-Sponsored Insurance between 2000 and 2008: Examining the Components of Coverage by Firm Size

PubMed Central

Vistnes, Jessica; Zawacki, Alice; Simon, Kosali; Taylor, Amy

2012-01-01

Objective To examine trends in employer-sponsored health insurance coverage rates and its associated components between 2000 and 2008, to provide a baseline for later evaluations of the Affordable Care Act, and to provide information to policy makers as they design the implementation details of the law. Data Sources Private sector employer data from the 2000, 2001, and 2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component (MEPS-IC). Study Design We examine time trends in employer offer, eligibility, and take-up rates. We add a new dimension to the literature by examining dependent coverage and decomposing its trends. We investigate heterogeneity in trends by firm size. Data Collection The MEPS-IC is an annual survey, sponsored by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The MEPS-IC obtains information on establishment characteristics, whether an establishment offers health insurance, and details on up to four plans. Principal Findings We find that coverage rates for workers declined in both small and large firms. In small firms, coverage declined due to a drop in both offer and take-up rates. In the largest firms, offer rates were stable and the decline was due to falling take-up rates. In addition, enrollment shifted toward single coverage and away from dependent coverage in both small and large firms. For small firms, this shift was due to declining offer and take-up rates for dependent coverage. In large firms, offers of dependent coverage were stable but take-up rates dropped. Within the category of dependent coverage, the availability of employee-plus-one plans increased in all firm size categories, but take-up rates for these plans declined in small firms. PMID:22250730

Why are suicide rates rising in young men but falling in the elderly?-- a time-series analysis of trends in England and Wales 1950-1998.

PubMed

Gunnell, David; Middleton, Nicos; Whitley, Elise; Dorling, Daniel; Frankel, Stephen

2003-08-01

Suicide rates doubled in males aged <45 in England and Wales between 1950 and 1998, in contrast rates declined in older males and females of all ages. Explanations for these divergent trends are largely speculative, but social changes are likely to have played an important role. We undertook a time-series analysis using routinely available age- and sex-specific suicide, social, economic and health data, focussing on the two age groups in which trends have diverged most-25-34 and 60+ year olds. Between 1950 and 1998 there were unfavourable trends in many of the risk factors for suicide: rises in divorce, unemployment and substance misuse and declines in births and marriage. Whilst economic prosperity has increased, so too has income inequality. Trends in suicide risk factors were generally similar in both age-sex groups, although the rises in divorce and markers of substance misuse were most marked in 25-34 year olds and young males experienced the lowest rise in antidepressant prescribing. Statistical modelling indicates that no single factor can be identified as underlying recent trends. The factors most consistently associated with the rises in young male suicide are increases in divorce, declines in marriage and increases in income inequality. These changes have had little effect on suicide in young females. This may be because the drugs commonly used in overdose-their favoured method of suicide-have become less toxic or because they are less affected by the factors underlying the rise in male suicide. In older people declines in suicide were associated with increases in gross domestic product, the size of the female workforce, marriage and the prescribing of antidepressants. Recent population trends in suicide appear to be associated with by a range of social and health related factors. It is possible that some of the patterns observed are due to declining levels of social integration, but such effects do not appear to have adversely influenced patterns in older generations.

Ecological Change Drives a Decline in Mercury Concentrations in Southern Beaufort Sea Polar Bears.

PubMed

McKinney, Melissa A; Atwood, Todd C; Pedro, Sara; Peacock, Elizabeth

2017-07-18

We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g -1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g -1 ). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

Ecological change drives a decline in mercury concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKinney, Melissa A.; Atwood, Todd C.; Pedro, Sara; Peacock, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g–1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g–1). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

Trends and disparities in coronary heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases in the United States: findings of the national conference on cardiovascular disease prevention.

PubMed

Cooper, R; Cutler, J; Desvigne-Nickens, P; Fortmann, S P; Friedman, L; Havlik, R; Hogelin, G; Marler, J; McGovern, P; Morosco, G; Mosca, L; Pearson, T; Stamler, J; Stryer, D; Thom, T

2000-12-19

A workshop was held September 27 through 29, 1999, to address issues relating to national trends in mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular diseases; the apparent slowing of declines in mortality from cardiovascular diseases; levels and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases; disparities in cardiovascular diseases by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography; trends in cardiovascular disease preventive and treatment services; and strategies for efforts to reduce cardiovascular diseases overall and to reduce disparities among subpopulations. The conference concluded that coronary heart disease mortality is still declining in the United States as a whole, although perhaps at a slower rate than in the 1980s; that stroke mortality rates have declined little, if at all, since 1990; and that there are striking differences in cardiovascular death rates by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography. Trends in risk factors are consistent with a slowing of the decline in mortality; there has been little recent progress in risk factors such as smoking, physical inactivity, and hypertension control. There are increasing levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes, with major differences among subpopulations. There is considerable activity in population-wide prevention, primary prevention for higher risk people, and secondary prevention, but wide disparities exist among groups on the basis of socioeconomic status and geography, pointing to major gaps in efforts to use available, proven approaches to control cardiovascular diseases. Recommendations for strategies to attain the year 2010 health objectives were made.

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoddard, J.L.; Jeffries, D.S.; Lukewille, A.; Clair, T.A.; Dillon, P.J.; Driscoll, C.T.; Forsius, M.; Johannessen, M.; Kahl, J.S.; Kellogg, J.H.; Kemp, A.; Mannlo, J.; Monteith, D.T.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Patrick, S.; Rebsdorl, A.; Skjelkvale, B.L.; Stainton, M.P.; Traaen, T.; Van Dam, H.; Webster, K.E.; Wleting, J.; Wllander, A.

1999-01-01

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere ('acid rain') have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Challenging the Inevitability of Rural Decline: Advancing the Policy of Place in Northern British Columbia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markey, Sean; Halseth, Greg; Manson, Don

2008-01-01

In current policy discourse, rural decline is often described as an inevitable process associated with such broader structural trends as globalization and urbanization. The purpose of this paper is to challenge the supposed inevitability of rural decline in northern British Columbia (BC), Canada. We argue that rural decline in northern BC has been…

Long‐term trends in stream water and precipitation chemistry at five headwater basins in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa

1999-01-01

Stream water data from five headwater basins in the northeastern United States covering water years 1968–1996 and precipitation data from eight nearby precipitation monitoring sites covering water years 1984‐1996 were analyzed for temporal trends in chemistry using the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Concentrations of SO4declined at three of five streams during 1968–1996 (p < 0.1), and all of the streams exhibited downward trends in SO4 over the second half of the period (1984–1996). Concentrations of SO4 in precipitation declined at seven of eight sites from 1984 to 1996, and the magnitudes of the declines (−0.7 to −2.0 µeq L−1 yr−1) generally were similar to those of stream water SO4. These results indicate that changes in precipitation SO4 were of sufficient magnitude to account for changes in stream water SO4. Concentrations of Ca + Mg declined at three of five streams and five of eight precipitation sites from 1984 to 1996. Precipitation acidity decreased at five of eight sites during the same period, but alkalinity increased in only one stream. In most cases the decreases in stream water SO4 were similar in magnitude to declines in stream water Ca + Mg, which is consistent with the theory of leaching by mobile acid anions in soils. In precipitation the magnitudes of SO4 declines were similar to those of hydrogen, and declines in Ca +Mg were much smaller. This indicates that recent decreases in SO4 deposition are now being reflected in reduced precipitation acidity. The lack of widespread increases in stream water alkalinity, despite the prevalence of downward trends in stream water SO4, suggests that at most sites, increases in stream water pH and acid‐neutralizing capacity may be delayed until higher soil base‐saturation levels are achieved.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

PubMed

Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

2014-01-01

The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the spatial and temporal variations of livestock population is crucial in order to develop a sound and geographically targeted livestock development policy.

Long-term trends in metals, PCBs, and pesticides in mussels from San Francisco Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.; Taberski, K.

1995-12-31

Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program in conjunction with the San Francisco Estuary Institute (in the last 2 years) have provided continues funding for the past 15 years to mussel watch studies in San Francisco Bay. Long-term trends have been identified that describe declines in many organics and metals during the last 15 years. There are also some metals and organics that show no specific trends. Themore » declines indicate that the banning or restriction of usage of some of these contaminants has resulted in substantial decreases of these substances in the environment.« less

Are pollinating hawk moths declining in the Northeastern United States? An analysis of collection records

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Increasing attention to pollinators and their role in providing ecosystem services has revealed a paucity of studies on long-term population trends of most insect pollinators in many parts of the world. Because targeted monitoring programs are resource intensive and unlikely to be performed on most insect pollinators, we took advantage of existing collection records to examine long-term trends in northeastern United States populations of 26 species of hawk moths (family Sphingidae) that are presumed to be pollinators. We compiled over 6,600 records from nine museum and 14 private collections that spanned a 112-year period, and used logistic generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine long-term population trends. We controlled for uneven sampling effort by adding a covariate for list length, the number of species recorded during each sampling event. We found that of the 22 species for which there was sufficient data to assess population trends, eight species declined and four species increased in detection probability (the probability of a species being recorded during each year while accounting for effort, climate, and spatial effects in the GLMMs). Of the four species with too few records to statistically assess, two have disappeared from parts of their ranges. None of the four species with diurnal adults showed a trend in detection probability. Two species that are pests of solanaceous crops declined, consistent with a seven-fold drop in the area planted in tobacco and tomato crops. We found some evidence linking susceptibility to parasitoidism by the introduced fly Compsilura concinnata (Tachinidae) to declines. Moths with larvae that feed on vines and trees, where available evidence indicates that the fly is most likely to attack, had a greater propensity to decline than species that use herbs and shrubs as larval host plants. Species that develop in the spring, before Compsilura populations have increased, did not decline. However, restricting the analysis to hawk moth records from areas outside of a “refuge” area where Compsilura does not occur did not significantly increase the intensity of the declines as would be predicted if Compsilura was the primary cause of declines. Forests have recovered over the study period across most of the northeastern U.S., but this does not appear to have been a major factor because host plants of several of the declining species have increased in abundance with forest expansion and maturation. Climate variables used in the GLMMs were not consistently related to moth detection probability. Hawk moth declines may have ecological effects on both the plants pollinated by these species and vertebrate predators of the moths. PMID:28982152

Trends in cancer mortality in Spain: the influence of the financial crisis.

PubMed

Ferrando, Josep; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Puig-Barrachina, Vanessa; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Bartoll, Xavier; Borrell, Carme

2018-02-13

To determine if the onset of the economic crisis in Spain affected cancer mortality and mortality trends. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study based on all cancer-related deaths and on specific types of cancer (lung, colon, breast and prostate) in Spain between 2000 and 2013. We computed age-standardised mortality rates in men and women, and fit mixed Poisson models to analyse the effect of the crisis on cancer mortality and trends therein. After the onset of the economic crisis, cancer mortality continued to decline, but with a significant slowing of the yearly rate of decline (men: RR = 0.987, 95%CI = 0.985-0.990, before the crisis, and RR = 0.993, 95%CI = 0.991-0.996, afterwards; women: RR = 0.990, 95%CI = 0.988-0.993, before, and RR = 1.002, 95%CI = 0.998-1.006, afterwards). In men, lung cancer mortality was reduced, continuing the trend observed in the pre-crisis period; the trend in colon cancer mortality did not change significantly and continued to increase; and the yearly decline in prostate cancer mortality slowed significantly. In women, lung cancer mortality continued to increase each year, as before the crisis; colon cancer continued to decease; and the previous yearly downward trend in breast cancer mortality slowed down following the onset of the crisis. Since the onset of the economic crisis in Spain the rate of decline in cancer mortality has slowed significantly, and this situation could be exacerbated by the current austerity measures in healthcare. Copyright © 2018 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Toxic materials, fishing, and environmental variation: simulated effects on striped bass population trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodyear, C.P.

1985-01-01

Decreased survival of larval striped bass Morone saxatilis resulting from toxic chemicals in the environment and decreased survival of adults caused by fishing both are suspected as agents contributing to the decline in the Chesapeake Bay stock since the mid-1970s. The relative power of each type of mortality to cause population declines was evaluated with simulation techniques. Equivalent levels of added mortality induced qualitatively identical and quantitatively similar trends in population simulations for all conditions examined except if strong density-dependent mortality preceded the contaminant toxicity. In this case the contaminant effect caused a greater reduction in yield, but the populationmore » did not tend toward extinction. The results indicate that the observed downward trend in the Chesapeake Bay population can be halted or reversed by a reduction in fishing mortality, even if contaminant toxicity is the proximate cause for the decline. 28 references, 1 figure, 1 table.« less

Examining Trends in Adolescent Environmental Attitudes, Beliefs, and Behaviors Across Three Decades

PubMed Central

Wray-Lake, Laura; Flanagan, Constance A.; Osgood, D. Wayne

2009-01-01

Since the Environmental Movement began, adolescents’ views have been largely ignored in studies of public opinion. The article presents a descriptive analysis of trends in the environmental attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors of high school seniors from 1976 to 2005 using data from the Monitoring the Future study. Across a range of indicators, environmental concerns of adolescents show increases during the early 1990s and declines across the remainder of the three decades. Declining trends in reports of personal responsibility for the environment, conservation behaviors, and the belief that resources are scarce are particularly noteworthy. Across all years, findings reveal that youth tended to assign responsibility for the environment to the government and consumers rather than accepting personal responsibility. Recent declines in environmental concerns for this nationally representative sample of youth signal the need for a renewed focus on young people’s views and call for better environmental education and governmental leadership. PMID:20046859

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

PubMed

Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

2014-09-01

Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population

PubMed Central

Baril, Donald T.; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B.

2015-01-01

Objective Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. Methods This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Results Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Conclusions Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. PMID:24768362

Evaluating spatial and temporal variations of rainfall erosivity, case of Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshesha, Derege Tsegaye; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Adgo, Enyew

2015-02-01

Land degradation in many Ethiopian highlands occurs mainly due to high rainfall erosivity and poor soil conservation practices. Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of the precipitation energy and ability to cause soil erosion. In Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, where the climate is characterized as arid and semiarid, rainfall is the main driver of soil erosion that in turn causes a serious expansion in land degradation. In order to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity and its impact on soil erosion, long-term rainfall data (1980-2010) was used, and the monthly Fournier index (FI) and the annual modified Fournier index (MFI) were applied. Student's t test analysis was performed particularly to examine statistical significances of differences in average monthly and annual erosivity values. The result indicated that, in a similar spatial pattern with elevation and rainfall amount, average annual erosivity is also found being higher in western highlands of the valley and gradually decreased towards the east. The long-term average annual erosivity (MFI) showed a general decreasing trend in recent 10 years (2000-2010) as compared to previous 20 years (1980-1999). In most of the stations, average erosivity of main rainy months (May, June, July, and August) showed a decreasing trend, whereby some of them (about 33.3 %) are statically significant at 90 and 95 % confidence intervals but with high variation in spatial pattern of changes. The overall result of the study showed that rainfall aggression (erosivity) in the region has a general decreasing trend in the recent decade as compared to previous decades, especially in the western highlands of the valley. Hence, it implies that anthropogenic factors such as land use change being coupled with topography (steep slope) have largely contributed to increased soil erosion rate in the region.

US lung cancer trends by histologic type.

PubMed

Lewis, Denise Riedel; Check, David P; Caporaso, Neil E; Travis, William D; Devesa, Susan S

2014-09-15

Lung cancer incidence rates overall are declining in the United States. This study investigated the trends by histologic type and demographic characteristics. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program rates of microscopically confirmed lung cancer overall and squamous cell, small cell, adenocarcinoma, large cell, other, and unspecified carcinomas among US whites and blacks diagnosed from 1977 to 2010 and white non-Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and white Hispanics diagnosed from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed by sex and age. Squamous and small cell carcinoma rates declined since the 1990s, although less rapidly among females than males. Adenocarcinoma rates decreased among males and only through 2005, after which they then rose during 2006 to 2010 among every racial/ethnic/sex group; rates for unspecified type declined. Male/female rate ratios declined among whites and blacks more than among other groups. Recent rates among young females were higher than among males for adenocarcinoma among all racial/ethnic groups and for other specified carcinomas among whites. US lung cancer trends vary by sex, histologic type, racial/ethnic group, and age, reflecting historical cigarette smoking rates, duration, cessation, cigarette composition, and exposure to other carcinogens. Substantial excesses among males have diminished and higher rates of adenocarcinoma among young females have emerged as rates among males declined more rapidly. The recognition of EGFR mutation and ALK rearrangements that occur primarily in adenocarcinomas are the primary basis for the molecular revolution that has transformed lung cancer diagnosis and treatment over the past decade, and these changes have affected recent type-specific trends. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

A hydrologic and archeologic study of climate change in Al Ain, United Arab Emirates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorgensen, Donald G.; Yasin al-Tikiriti, Walid

2003-01-01

Aridity trends established for Al Ain, United Arab Emirates, for the past 4500 years correlate with the trends of increased well depths and declining groundwater levels. Depth of wells found at archeologic sites at Hili near Al Ain were correlated to groundwater levels. Trends of declining groundwater levels were related to trends of increasing aridity (climate change). The increasing aridity had a pronounced affect on man's development in Al Ain area as well. For example, nonirrigation farming could not be successfully sustained at the end of the Bronze Age. This thwarted the economic development until the falaj (a water conveyance structure) was introduced in the Iron Age. The aridity trends in Al Ain correspond to contemporaneous aridity trends noted in Mesopotamia and the Dead Sea area, as well as the Middle East, Mediterranean, and northern Africa, in general. Other global climatic changes that are contemporaneous with climate change at Al Ain have been noted. The increased aridity (desertification) trends at Al Ain are contemporaneous with increased atmospheric CO 2 trends as reported by Indermuhle et al. [Nature (398) 121].

Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

2017-09-01

The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased considerably in the last 15 years, a pattern not observed in the Wadden Sea. Also the size structure of the fish community changed in all regions, with generally the strongest declines in the largest size classes. The combined use of the two surveys showed that for some species the DFS was not timed in the period of peak occurrence. Although the phenology of several species has changed, the DFS survey period still encompasses the peak period of most species.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Watershed-scale changes in terrestrial nitrogen cycling during a period of decreased atmospheric nitrate and sulfur deposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sabo, Robert D.; Scanga, Sara E.; Lawrence, Gregory B.; Nelson, David M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Zabala, Gabriel A.; Alinea, Alexandria A.; Schirmer, Charles D.

2016-01-01

Recent reports suggest that decreases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition throughout Europe and North America may have resulted in declining nitrate export in surface waters in recent decades, yet it is unknown if and how terrestrial N cycling was affected. During a period of decreased atmospheric N deposition, we assessed changes in forest N cycling by evaluating trends in tree-ring δ15N values (between 1980 and 2010; n = 20 trees per watershed), stream nitrate yields (between 2000 and 2011), and retention of atmospherically-deposited N (between 2000 and 2011) in the North and South Tributaries (North and South, respectively) of Buck Creek in the Adirondack Mountains, USA. We hypothesized that tree-ring δ15N values would decline following decreases in atmospheric N deposition (after approximately 1995), and that trends in stream nitrate export and retention of atmospherically deposited N would mirror changes in tree-ring δ15N values. Three of the six sampled tree species and the majority of individual trees showed declining linear trends in δ15N for the period 1980–2010; only two individual trees showed increasing trends in δ15N values. From 1980 to 2010, trees in the watersheds of both tributaries displayed long-term declines in tree-ring δ15N values at the watershed scale (R = −0.35 and p = 0.001 in the North and R = −0.37 and p <0.001 in the South). The decreasing δ15N trend in the North was associated with declining stream nitrate concentrations (−0.009 mg N L−1 yr−1, p = 0.02), but no change in the retention of atmospherically deposited N was observed. In contrast, nitrate yields in the South did not exhibit a trend, and the watershed became less retentive of atmospherically deposited N (−7.3% yr−1, p < 0.001). Our δ15N results indicate a change in terrestrial N availability in both watersheds prior to decreases in atmospheric N deposition, suggesting that decreased atmospheric N deposition was not the sole driver of tree-ring δ15N values at these sites. Other factors, such as decreased sulfur deposition, disturbance, long-term successional trends, and/or increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations, may also influence trends in tree-ring δ15N values. Furthermore, declines in terrestrial N availability inferred from tree-ring δ15N values do not always correspond with decreased stream nitrate export or increased retention of atmospherically deposited N.

Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

PubMed

Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

2014-03-27

HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P < 0.01). Trends in background rates were notable for liver (APC 5.6%) and lung (-3.2%) cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

Recent trends in elderly suicide rates in England and Wales.

PubMed

Hoxey, K; Shah, A

2000-03-01

The proportion of elderly in the population is increasing due to increased life expectancy and falling birth rate, and suicide rates increase with age. This study examined the following in England and Wales: (i) recent trends in the elderly suicide rate; (ii) recent trends in method-specific elderly suicide rate; (iii) the relationship between elderly population size and elderly suicide rate in recent years; and (iv) the sex difference in overall and method-specific elderly suicide rate. Data on the various suicide variables were ascertained from the annually published mortality data for years 1985 to 1996. The main findings of this study were: (i) there is a trend towards decline in the overall pure and combined suicide rates for elderly men and women over the 12 year study period; (ii) the main contributors to this decline are suicides due to poisoning by solid and liquid substances (E950), hanging, strangulation and suffocation (E953), drowning (E954), firearms and explosives (E955), and jumping from high places (E957); (iii) the overall pure and combined suicide rates and that for most categories of suicide was higher in men compared to women; and (iv) suicide rates decreased with an increase in the elderly population size. Suicide rates can decline due to a number of reasons. The challenge now is to ensure further decline in suicide rates to meet the Our Healthier Nations target.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

Declining Trends in Student Performance in Lower Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wijsman, Lindy A.; Warrens, Matthijs J.; Saab, Nadira; van Driel, Jan H.; Westenberg, P. Michiel

2016-01-01

Student performance is related to motivation to learn. As motivation generally declines during lower secondary education, one might expect performance to decline as well during this period. Though, until now, it has been unclear whether this pattern exists. In the present study, we examined student performance during the early years of secondary…

Ten-year change in plasma amyloid beta levels and late-life cognitive decline.

PubMed

Okereke, Olivia I; Xia, Weiming; Selkoe, Dennis J; Grodstein, Francine

2009-10-01

Plasma levels of amyloid beta peptide (Abeta) are potential biomarkers of early cognitive impairment and decline and of Alzheimer disease risk. To relate midlife plasma Abeta measures and 10-year change in plasma Abeta measures since midlife to late-life cognitive decline. Prospective study of a population-based sample. Academic research. Plasma Abeta40 and Abeta42 levels were measured in 481 Nurses' Health Study participants in late midlife (mean age, 63.6 years) and again 10 years later (mean age, 74.6 years). Cognitive testing also began 10 years after the initial blood draw. Participants completed 3 repeated telephone-based assessments (mean span, 4.1 years). Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate relations of midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to late-life cognitive decline, as well as relations of 10-year change in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to cognitive decline. The 3 primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) findings, a global score averaging the results of all tests (TICS, immediate and delayed verbal recall, category fluency, and attention), and a verbal memory score averaging the results of 4 tests of verbal recall. Higher midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios were associated with worse late-life decline on the global score (P = .04 for trend). Furthermore, increase in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios since midlife predicted greater decline in the global score (P = .03 for trend) and in the TICS (P = .02 for trend). There was no association of cognitive decline with midlife plasma Abeta42 levels alone or with change in Abeta42 levels since midlife. In this large community-dwelling sample, higher plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios in late midlife and increases in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios 10 years later were significantly associated with greater decline in global cognition at late life.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs.

Impact of the post-2008 economic crisis on harmful drinking in the Dutch working-age population.

PubMed

de Goeij, Moniek C M; van der Wouden, Bregje; Bruggink, Jan-Willem; Otten, Ferdy; Kunst, Anton E

2016-04-01

Studies on the impact of economic crises on alcohol consumption have yielded ambiguous results. Therefore, we studied changes in trends in harmful drinking among Dutch working-age men and women after the post-2008 economic crisis started. We also assessed whether these trend changes differed across age and socioeconomic groups. We used repeated cross-sectional data from the Dutch Health Interview Survey conducted by Statistics Netherlands. Representative samples were independently drawn each month (January, 2004-December, 2013). Our working-age study population consisted of 20,140 men and 22,394 women aged 25-64. For men and women, episodic drinking was defined as drinking ≥6 glasses on one day at least once a week. Chronic drinking was defined as consuming ≥14 glasses/week for women and ≥21 for men. Segmented logistic regression was used to model trend changes separately in men and women. A downward trend in episodic and chronic drinking before the crisis slowed down after the crisis started. For episodic drinking, we observed a ceasing-of-decline among men aged 35-44/45-54/55-64, compared to a start-of-decline among those aged 25-34 (p-interaction=0.042/0.020/0.047). For chronic drinking, we observed a ceasing-of-decline among women (p=0.023) but not among men in general (p=0.238). Among men, a ceasing-of-decline did occur in those with a high income, but a start-of-decline was found among those with a low income (p-interaction=0.049). In some subgroups of the Dutch working-age population, the downward trend in episodic and chronic drinking ceased after the crisis started. This suggests that the crisis had an upward effect on harmful drinking, but only in specific populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

PubMed Central

Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs. PMID:27783668

An American Challenge: A Report on Economic Trends and Social Issues in Appalachia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Couto, Richard A.

This book provides an overview of economic trends and social issues in the 13 states and 399 counties of Appalachia, with emphasis on implications for families, children, and communities. It places the trends and issues of the Appalachian region within a national context. These trends include declining employment opportunities and wages, increased…

Decline in sperm count and motility in young adult men from 2003 to 2013: observations from a U.S. sperm bank.

PubMed

Centola, G M; Blanchard, A; Demick, J; Li, S; Eisenberg, M L

2016-03-01

Controversy exists regarding stability of semen quality over time with papers reporting decrease, increase or stable parameters in heterogeneous populations. The current study examined semen parameters of young adult men from 2003 to 2013 at an urban U.S. sperm bank. Semen parameters were analyzed before and after cryopreservation for a total of 9425 specimens from 489 individuals. Demographic information was obtained from a social and medical history questionnaire. Following 2-3 days abstinence, the specimens were collected at the laboratory and assessed by uniform technicians and techniques. The data were analyzed using generalized linear regression after adjustment for age, days of abstinence, for repeated samples, as well as by the Cochran-Armitage trend test. The within variability was accounted for by the repeated measures model. All p values were two-sided with p < 0.05 considered significant. There was a significant decline in sperm concentration (-3.55, 95% CI -4.87, -2.23; p < 0.001), total motility (-1.23, 95% CI -1.65, -0.82; p < 0.001), total count (-10.75, 95% CI -15.95, -5.54; p < 0.001) and total motile count (-9.43, 95% CI -13.14, -5.73; p < 0.001). There was no significant change in semen volume (0.03, 95% CI -0.02, 0.09; p = 0.2). The post-thaw total motility significantly (-2.30, 95% CI -2.72, -1.87; p < 0.001) decreased with time. Importantly, demographic and lifestyle factors were stable or improved over the study period. There was a decline in age (p(trend) = 0.003) and alcohol use (p(trend) = 0.005) and an increase in college GPA (Grade Point Average) (p(trend) = 0.02). BMI (p(trend) = 0.73), educational attainment (p(trend) = 0.2), race/ethnicity (p(trend) = 0.53), and lifestyle habits (weekly exercise, p(trend) = 0.21; smoking, p(trend) = 0.99; marital status, p(trend) = 0.85) remained constant. Uniform technicians and techniques over the study period make measurement bias unlikely. This report demonstrates a decline in semen quality among young adult men in the Boston area who were attending or completed a college education during the past 10 years, and requires further study. © 2016 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the Clean Air Act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002.

PubMed

Murdoch, Peter S; Shanley, James B

2006-09-01

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (O4(2-)) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (O4(2-)) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining O4(2-) concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2++ Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO3-), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (approximately decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early detection of ecosystem response to climate change and pollution management strategies.

Planning and Management in the Face of the Changing Demographic Picture.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodgkinson, Harold L.

Demographic trends promise to force sweeping changes on postsecondary higher education, particularly the inevitable steady decline in 18-year-olds and the birthrate decline since the early 1960's in the white middle class. The decline in public confidence in American institutions is also a factor to be considered in educational planning. In…

Possible causes of Arctic Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2017-12-01

Three decades of remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data document an overall increase in Arctic tundra vegetation greenness but the trends display considerable spatial variability. Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greening is associated with increases in summer warmth that are, in large-part, driven by summer sea-ice retreat along Arctic coasts. Trends covering the period 1982-2016 are overall positive for summer open water, Summer Warmth Index (SWI, the sum of the degree months above zero from May-August), MaxNDVI (peak NDVI) and time integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI, sum of biweekly NDVI above 0.05 from May-September). Upon closer examination, it is clear that not all regions have positive trends, for example, there is an area of cooling in western Eurasia, which is broadly co-located with maxNDVI and TI-NDVI declines. While sea ice decline has continued over the satellite record, summer landsurface temperatures and vegetation productivity measures have not simply increased. Regional differences between warming and greening trends suggest that it is likely that multiple processes influence vegetation productivity beyond secular greening with increased summer warmth. This paper will present Pan-Arctic and regional analyses of the NDVI data in the context of climate drivers. Other possible drivers of vegetation productivity decline will be discussed such as increased standing water, delayed spring snow-melt, and winter thaw events. The status and limitations of data sets and modeling needed to advance our understanding of tundra vegetation productivity will be summarized and will serve as a starting point for planning the next steps in this topic. Methodical multi-disciplinary synthesis research that jointly considers vegetation type, permafrost conditions, altitude, as well as climate factors such as temperature, heat and moisture transport, and timing of snowfall and spring snowmelt is needed to better understand recent tundra vegetation productivity declines.

Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008. Methods The number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred. Results The CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994–2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994–2000 and 6.7% between 2005–2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods). Stroke mortality declined between 1990–1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994–2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods). Conclusions A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control. PMID:24079269

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Global trends in ocean phytoplankton: a new assessment using revised ocean colour data.

PubMed

Gregg, Watson W; Rousseaux, Cécile S; Franz, Bryan A

2017-01-01

A recent revision of the NASA global ocean colour record shows changes in global ocean chlorophyll trends. This new 18-year time series now includes three global satellite sensors, the Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The major changes are radiometric drift correction, a new algorithm for chlorophyll, and a new sensor VIIRS. The new satellite data record shows no significant trend in global annual median chlorophyll from 1998 to 2015, in contrast to a statistically significant negative trend from 1998 to 2012 in the previous version. When revised satellite data are assimilated into a global ocean biogeochemical model, no trend is observed in global annual median chlorophyll. This is consistent with previous findings for the 1998-2012 time period using the previous processing version and only two sensors (SeaWiFS and MODIS). Detecting trends in ocean chlorophyll with satellites is sensitive to data processing options and radiometric drift correction. The assimilation of these data, however, reduces sensitivity to algorithms and radiometry, as well as the addition of a new sensor. This suggests the assimilation model has skill in detecting trends in global ocean colour. Using the assimilation model, spatial distributions of significant trends for the 18-year record (1998-2015) show recent decadal changes. Most notable are the North and Equatorial Indian Oceans basins, which exhibit a striking decline in chlorophyll. It is exemplified by declines in diatoms and chlorophytes, which in the model are large and intermediate size phytoplankton. This decline is partially compensated by significant increases in cyanobacteria, which represent very small phytoplankton. This suggests the beginning of a shift in phytoplankton composition in these tropical and subtropical Indian basins.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change.

PubMed

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling. Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity. Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W. The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures.

PubMed

Livingston, Michael; Callinan, Sarah; Raninen, Jonas; Pennay, Amy; Dietze, Paul M

2018-04-01

Survey data remain a crucial means for monitoring alcohol consumption, but there has been limited work done to ensure that surveys adequately capture changes in per-capita consumption in Australia. In this study, we explore how trends in consumption from two major Australian surveys compare with an official measure of per-capita consumption between 2001 and 2014 and examine age-specific trends in drinking. Data were from five waves of the cross-sectional National Health Survey (total n = 113 279) and 12 waves of the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Study (average n = 12 347). Overall and age-specific estimates of annual alcohol consumption were derived and compared with official per-capita consumption and previous analyses of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. In terms of overall consumption, both surveys broadly reflected trends in per-capita consumption, especially the decline that has been observed since 2007/2008. Age-specific trends were broadly similar, with the recent decline in consumption clearly concentrated among teenagers and young adults. The main Australian monitoring surveys remain useful monitoring tools for alcohol consumption in Australia. There is consistent evidence that the recent declines in Australian per-capita consumption have been driven by sharp falls in drinking among young people, a trend that requires further study. [Livingston M, Callinan S, Raninen J, Pennay A, Dietze PM. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Changes in the chemistry of precipitation in the United States, 1981-1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nilles, M.A.; Conley, B.E.

2001-01-01

Regulatory measures in the United States, such as Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, have primarily restricted sulfur dioxide emissions as a way to control acidic deposition. These restrictions, coupled with increasing concentrations of NH4+ in wet deposition in some regions of the U.S. and continued high emissions of nitrogen oxides have generated a significant shift in the chemistry of precipitation as measured at National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network sites. Trends in precipitation chemistry at NADP/NTN sites were evaluated for statistical significance for the period 1981-1998 using a Seasonal Mann-Kendall Test, a robust non-parametric test for detection of monotonic trends. SO42- declines were detected at 100 of the 147 sites examined while no sites exhibited increasing SO42- trends. On average, SO42- declined 35% over the period 1981-1998 with downward SO42- trends being most pronounced in the northeastern United States. In contrast, no consistent trends in NO3- concentrations were observed in precipitation in any major region of the United States. Although the majority of sites did not exhibit significant trends in NH4+ concentration, 30 sites exhibited upward trends. For Ca2+ concentration in precipitation, 64 sites exhibited a significant decreasing trend and no sites exhibited an upward trend.

Population trends of red-cockaded woodpeckers in Texas

Treesearch

Richard N. Conner; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph

2006-01-01

tracked population trends of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) in eastern Texas from 1983 through 2004. After declining precipitously during the 1980s, woodpecker population trends on federal lands (National Forests and Grasslands in Texas, but excluding the Big Thicket National Preserve) increased between 1990 and 2000, and have been...

Indoor and Outdoor Air Pollution- related Health Problem in Ethiopia: Review of Related Literature

PubMed Central

Tefera, Worku; Asfaw, Araya; Gilliland, Frank; Worku, Alemayehu; Wondimagegn, Mehari; Kumie, Abera; Samet, Jonathan; Berhane, Kiros

2017-01-01

Background The health effects of air pollution are generally global problems, but they have, since recently become issues of particular concern for developing countries. This review assessed the situation of air pollution and related health effects in the context of Ethiopia. Methods The materials reviewed in this publication are published scientific papers from online search engines, unpublished government reports and academic theses/dissertations. In addition, interview data obtained from authorities and experts involved in the management of air quality were analyzed, interpreted and reported in the article. Results Review of the few studies conducted in Ethiopia showed that average concentrations of PM2.5 reached as high as 280 µg/m3 for 24-hour measurements (range: 2,417–12,739 µg/m3). Indoor carbon monoxide (CO) levels were universally higher than regulatory limits for the United States and were found to be much higher among households using traditional stoves and solid biomass fuels. The use of traditional stoves and solid biomass fuels was reported in >95% of the households considered. High average levels of NO2 (97 ppb) were reported in a large longitudinal study. The ambient PM10 level was below the WHO guideline values in the majority of the samples. About 50% of the on-road CO samples taken from traffic roads in Addis Ababa were found to be less than the guideline values while the number of motor vehicles in Ethiopia is reported to be increasing by more than 9% per annum. There is a very limited air quality monitoring capacity in the country. The co-ordination between stakeholders in this regard is also inadequate. The limited evidence available on health effects of air pollution indicates that the prevalence of acute respiratory illness among children living in households using crude biomass fuels is significantly higher than the national average figures. Conclusion The limited evidence reviewed and reported in this article indicates high levels of indoor air pollution and trends of worsening outdoor air pollution. This tentative conclusion carries with it the urgent need for more evidence-based research and capacity building in the areas of indoor and outdoor air pollution PMID:28890631

Indoor and Outdoor Air Pollution- related Health Problem in Ethiopia: Review of Related Literature.

PubMed

Tefera, Worku; Asfaw, Araya; Gilliland, Frank; Worku, Alemayehu; Wondimagegn, Mehari; Kumie, Abera; Samet, Jonathan; Berhane, Kiros

2016-01-01

The health effects of air pollution are generally global problems, but they have, since recently become issues of particular concern for developing countries. This review assessed the situation of air pollution and related health effects in the context of Ethiopia. The materials reviewed in this publication are published scientific papers from online search engines, unpublished government reports and academic theses/dissertations. In addition, interview data obtained from authorities and experts involved in the management of air quality were analyzed, interpreted and reported in the article. Review of the few studies conducted in Ethiopia showed that average concentrations of PM 2.5 reached as high as 280 µg/m 3 for 24-hour measurements (range: 2,417-12,739 µg/m 3 ). Indoor carbon monoxide (CO) levels were universally higher than regulatory limits for the United States and were found to be much higher among households using traditional stoves and solid biomass fuels. The use of traditional stoves and solid biomass fuels was reported in >95% of the households considered. High average levels of NO 2 (97 ppb) were reported in a large longitudinal study. The ambient PM 10 level was below the WHO guideline values in the majority of the samples. About 50% of the on-road CO samples taken from traffic roads in Addis Ababa were found to be less than the guideline values while the number of motor vehicles in Ethiopia is reported to be increasing by more than 9% per annum. There is a very limited air quality monitoring capacity in the country. The co-ordination between stakeholders in this regard is also inadequate. The limited evidence available on health effects of air pollution indicates that the prevalence of acute respiratory illness among children living in households using crude biomass fuels is significantly higher than the national average figures. The limited evidence reviewed and reported in this article indicates high levels of indoor air pollution and trends of worsening outdoor air pollution. This tentative conclusion carries with it the urgent need for more evidence-based research and capacity building in the areas of indoor and outdoor air pollution.

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Senay, Gabriel B.; Berhan, Getachew; Regassa, Teshome; Beyene, Shimelis

2015-08-01

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia's cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation (R2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships (R2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation (R2) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

Timing of Exhumation of the Mesozoic Blue Nile Rift, Ethiopia: A New Study from Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gani, N. D.; Bowden, S. M.

2017-12-01

At present, tectonic features of Ethiopia are dominated by the 2.5 km high Ethiopian Plateau, and the NE-SW striking continental rift, the East African Rift System (EARS) that dissected the plateau into the northwest and southeast plateaus. The stress direction of the EARS is nearly perpendicular to the stress direction of the Mesozoic rifts of the Central African Rift System (CARS), located mostly in Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. During the Gondwana splitting in Mesozoic, active lithospheric extension within the CARS resulted in several NW-SE striking continental rifts including the Blue Nile, Muglad, Melut and Anza that are well documented in Sudan and Kenya, from a combination of geophysical and drill core analysis and field investigations. However, the timing and evolution of the poorly documented Blue Nile Rift in Ethiopia, now hidden in the subsurface of the Ethiopian Plateau and the EARS, is largely unknown. This study investigates, for the first time, the timing of tectono-thermal evolution of the Blue Nile Rift from cooling ages deduced from apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronology to understand the rift flank exhumation. Here, we report the AFT results from basement samples collected in a vertical transect from the Ethiopian Plateau. The fission track ages of the samples show a general trend of increasing cooling ages with elevations. The time-temperature simulations of the fission track ages illustrate that the cooling started at least 80 Ma ago with a significant amount of rapid cooling between 80 and 70 Ma, followed by a slow cooling after 70 Ma and then another accelerated cooling starting around 10 Ma. The Cretaceous rapid cooling event likely related to the flank uplift of the Blue Nile Rift and associated faulting, during which much of the exhumation occurred. Today, the Blue Nile Rift is buried under the thick cover of Mesozoic sedimentary rocks and Cenozoic volcanics. The late Neogene rapid cooling agrees well with our previous thermal model simulation from apatite (U-Th)/He ages that shows a rapid exhumation of the Ethiopian Plateau during late Neogene.

Household capacities, vulnerabilities and food insecurity: Shifts in food insecurity in urban and rural Ethiopia during the 2008 food crisis

PubMed Central

Hadley, Craig; Linzer, Drew A.; Belachew, Tefera; Mariam, Abebe Gebre; Tessema, Fasil; Lindstrom, David

2014-01-01

The global food crisis of 2008 led to renewed interest in global food insecurity and how macro-level food prices impact household and individual level wellbeing. There is debate over the extent to which food price increases in 2008 eroded food security, the extent to which this effect was distributed across rural and urban locales, and the extent to which rural farmers might have benefited. Ethiopia’s food prices increased particularly dramatically between 2005 and 2008 and here we ask whether there was a concomitant increase in household food insecurity, whether this decline was distributed equally across rural, urban, and semi-urban locales, and to what extent pre-crisis household capacities and vulnerabilities impacted 2008 household food insecurity levels. Data are drawn from a random sample of 2610 households in Southwest Ethiopia surveyed 2005/6 and again in mid to late 2008. Results show broad deterioration of household food insecurity relative to baseline but declines were most pronounced in the rural areas. Wealthier households and those that were relatively more food secure in 2005/6 tended to be more food secure in 2008, net of other factors, and these effects were most pronounced in urban areas. External shocks, such as a job loss or loss of crops, experienced by households were also associated with worse food insecurity in 2008 but few other household variables were associated with 2008 food insecurity. Our results also showed that rural farmers tended to produce small amounts for sale on markets, and thus were not able to enjoy the potential benefits that come from greater crop prices. We conclude that poverty, and not urban/rural difference, is the important variable for understanding the risk of food insecurity during a food crisis and that many rural farmers are too poor to take advantage of rapid rises in food prices. PMID:21996022

Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Amiri, M; Kunst, A E; Janssen, F; Mackenbach, J P

2006-12-01

To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality in 1950-1999 in the Netherlands, England & Wales, France, and four Nordic countries were analyzed. We used Poisson regression to describe trends in mortality according to birth cohort, for the cohorts born between 1860 and 1939. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to determine associations between IMR and IHD, or stroke mortality. IHD mortality increased for successive cohorts up to 1900, and then started to decline. Stroke mortality levels were virtually stable among birth cohorts up to 1880, but declined rapidly among later cohorts. A strong positive association was found between cohort-specific IMR levels and stroke mortality rates. There were no strong cohort-wise associations between IMR and IHD mortality. These results support other studies in suggesting that living conditions in early childhood may influence population levels of stroke mortality. Future studies should determine the contribution of specific early life factors to the mortality decline in IHD and especially stroke.

Long-term trends in adolescent and young adult smoking in the United States: metapatterns and implications.

PubMed

Nelson, David E; Mowery, Paul; Asman, Kat; Pederson, Linda L; O'Malley, Patrick M; Malarcher, Ann; Maibach, Edward W; Pechacek, Terry F

2008-05-01

We sought to describe long-term adolescent and young adult smoking trends and patterns. We analyzed adolescent data from Monitoring the Future, 1976 to 2005, and young adult (aged 18-24 years) data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1974 to 2005, overall and in subpopulations to identify trends in current cigarette smoking prevalence. Five metapatterns emerged: we found (1) a large increase and subsequent decrease in overall smoking over the past 15 years, (2) a steep decline in smoking among Blacks through the early 1990s, (3) a gender gap reversal among older adolescents and young adults who smoked over the past 15 years, (4) similar trends in smoking for most subgroups since the early 1990s, and (5) a large decline in smoking among young adults with less than a high school education. Long-term patterns for adolescent and young adult cigarette smoking were decidedly nonlinear, and we found evidence of a cohort effect among young adults. Continued strong efforts and a long-term societal commitment to tobacco use prevention are needed, given the unprecedented declines in smoking among most subpopulations since the mid- to late 1990s.

The decline in BMI among Japanese women after World War II.

PubMed

Maruyama, Shiko; Nakamura, Sayaka

2015-07-01

The body mass index (BMI) of the Japanese is significantly lower than is found in other high-income countries. Moreover, the average BMI of Japanese women is lower than that of Japanese men, and the age-specific BMI of Japanese women has decreased over time. The average BMI of Japanese women at age 25 decreased from 21.8 in 1948 to 20.4 in 2010 whereas that of men increased from 21.4 to 22.3 over the same period. We examine the long-term BMI trend in Japan by combining several historical data sources spanning eleven decades, from 1901 to 2012, to determine not only when but also how the BMI decline among women began: whether its inception was period-specific or cohort-specific. Our nonparametric regression analysis generated five findings. First, the BMI of Japanese women peaked with the 1930s birth cohort. This means that the trend is cohort-specific. Second, the BMI of men outpaced that of women in the next cohort. Third, the BMI of Japanese children, boys and girls alike, increased steadily throughout the 20th century. Fourth, the gender difference in the BMI trend is due to a gender difference in the weight trend, not the height trend. Fifth, these BMI trends are observed in urban and rural populations alike. We conclude that the BMI decline among Japanese women began with those who were in their late teens shortly after World War II. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of MODIS Sensor Calibration Updates on Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Reflectance and Albedo Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casey, Kimberly A.; Polashenski, Chris M.; Chen, Justin; Tedesco, Marco

2017-01-01

We evaluate Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface reflectance and albedo trends using the newly released Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over the period 2001-2016. We find that the correction of MODIS sensor degradation provided in the new C6 data products reduces the magnitude of the surface reflectance and albedo decline trends obtained from previous MODIS data (i.e., Collection 5, C5). Collection 5 and 6 data product analysis over GrIS is characterized by surface (i.e., wet vs. dry) and elevation (i.e., 500-2000 m, 2000 m and greater) conditions over the summer season from 1 June to 31 August. Notably, the visible-wavelength declining reflectance trends identified in several bands of MODIS C5 data from previous studies are only slightly detected at reduced magnitude in the C6 versions over the dry snow area. Declining albedo in the wet snow and ice area remains over the MODIS record in the C6 product, albeit at a lower magnitude than obtained using C5 data. Further analyses of C6 spectral reflectance trends show both reflectance increases and decreases in select bands and regions, suggesting that several competing processes are contributing to Greenland Ice Sheet albedo change. Investigators using MODIS data for other ocean, atmosphere and/or land analyses are urged to consider similar re-examinations of trends previously established using C5 data.

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Gould, William R.; Patla, Debra A.; Muths, Erin L.; Daley, Rob; Legg, Kristin; Corn, P. Stephen

2015-01-01

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002–2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver (Castor canadensis). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Post universal health coverage trend and geographical inequalities of mortality in Thailand.

PubMed

Aungkulanon, Suchunya; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj; Shibuya, Kenji; Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi

2016-11-22

Thailand has achieved remarkable improvement in health status since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002. Health equity has improved significantly. However, challenges on health inequity still remain.This study aimed to determine the trends of geographical inequalities in disease specific mortality in Thailand after the country achieved universal health coverage. National vital registration data from 2001 to 2014 were used to calculate age-adjusted mortality rate and standardized mortality ratio (SMR). To minimize large variations in mortality across administrative districts, the adjacent districts were systematically grouped into "super-districts" by taking into account the population size and proximity. Geographical mortality inequality among super-districts was measured by the coefficient of variation. Mixed effects modeling was used to test the difference in trends between super-districts. The overall SMR steadily declined from 1.2 in 2001 to 0.9 in 2014. The upper north and upper northeast regions had higher SMR whereas Greater Bangkok achieved the lowest SMR. Decreases in SMR were mostly seen in Greater Bangkok and the upper northern region. Coefficient of variation of SMR rapidly decreased from 20.0 in 2001 to 12.5 in 2007 and remained close to this value until 2014. The mixed effects modelling revealed significant differences in trends of SMR across super-districts. Inequality in mortality declined among adults (≥15 years old) but increased in children (0-14 years old). A declining trend in inequality of mortality was seen in almost all regions except Greater Bangkok where the inequality in SMR remained high throughout the study period. A decline in the adult mortality inequality across almost all regions of Thailand followed universal health coverage. Inequalities in child mortality rates and among residents of Greater Bangkok need further exploration.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

PubMed Central

Maniscalco, John M.; Springer, Alan M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Parker, Pamela

2015-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality. PMID:26488901

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

PubMed

Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

2004-03-29

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p < 5%), declining sharply in northern tropical Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Woolf, Anthony D; Englund, Martin

2017-02-02

Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

PubMed

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

2014-07-01

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.

Assessment of source of information for polio supplementary immunization activities in 2014 and 2015, Somali, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Bedada, Selamawit Yilma; Gallagher, Kathleen; Aregay, Aron Kassahun; Mohammed, Bashir; Maalin, Mohammed Adem; Hassen, Hassen Abdisemed; Ali, Yusuf Mohammed; Braka, Fiona; Kilebou, Pierre M’pele

2017-01-01

Introduction Communication is key for the successful implementation of polio vaccination campaigns. The purpose of this study is to review and analyse the sources of information utilized by caregivers during polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in Somali, Ethiopia in 2014 and 2015. Methods Data on sources of information about the polio campaign were collected post campaign from caregivers by trained data collectors as part of house to house independent monitoring. The sources of information analysed in this paper include town criers (via megaphones), health workers, religious leaders, kebele leaders (Kebele is the lowest administrative structure in Ethiopia), radio, television, text message and others. The repetition of these sources of information was analysed across years and zones for trends. Polio vaccination campaign coverage was also reviewed by year and zones within the Somali region in parallel with the major sources of information used in the respective year and zones. 57,745 responses were used for this analysis but the responses were received from < or = 57,745 individuals since some of them may provide more than one response. Moreover, because sampling of households is conducted independently during each round of independent monitoring, the same household may have been included more than once in our analysis. The methodology used for independent monitoring does not allow for the calculation of response rates. Monitors go from house to house until information from 20 households is received. Results From the total 57,745 responses reviewed, over 37% of respondents reported that town criers were their source for information about the 2014 and 2015 polio SIAs. Zonal trends in using town criers as a major source of information in both study years remained consistent except in two zones. 87.5% of zones that reported at least 90% coverage during both study years had utilized town criers as a major source of information while the rest (12.5%) used health workers. Conclusion We found that town criers were consistently the major source of information about the polio campaigns for Somali region parents and caregivers during polio immunization days held in 2014 and 2015. Health workers and kebele leaders were also important sources of information about the polio campaign for parents. PMID:28983395

Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

PubMed

de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

2012-08-01

To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

The predominance of Ethiopian specific Mycobacterium tuberculosis families and minimal contribution of Mycobacterium bovis in tuberculous lymphadenitis patients in Southwest Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tadesse, Mulualem; Abebe, Gemeda; Bekele, Alemayehu; Bezabih, Mesele; de Rijk, Pim; Meehan, Conor J; de Jong, Bouke C; Rigouts, Leen

2017-11-01

Ethiopia has an extremely high rate of extrapulmonary tuberculosis, dominated by tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN). However, little is known about Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBc) lineages responsible for TBLN in Southwest Ethiopia. A total of 304 MTBc isolates from TBLN patients in Southwest Ethiopia were genotyped primarily by spoligotyping. Isolates of selected spoligotypes were further analyzed by 15-loci mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) (n=167) and qPCR-based single nucleotide polymorphism (n=38). Isolates were classified into main phylogenetic lineages and families by using the reference strain collections and identification tools available at MIRU-VNTRplus data base. Resistance to rifampicin was determined by Xpert MTB/RIF. The majority of isolates (248; 81.6%) belonged to the Euro-American lineage (Lineage 4), with the ill-defined T and Haarlem as largest families comprising 116 (38.2%) and 43 (14.1%) isolates respectively. Of the T family, 108 isolates were classified as being part of the newly described Ethiopian families, namely Ethiopia_2 (n=44), Ethiopia_3 (n=34) and Ethiopia_H 37 Rv-like (n=30). Other sub-lineages included URAL (n=18), S (n=17), Uganda I (n=16), LAM (n=13), X (n=5), TUR (n=5), Uganda II (n=4) and unknown (n=19). Lineage 3 (Delhi/CAS) was the second most common lineage comprising 44 (14.5%) isolates. Interestingly, six isolates (2%) were belonged to Lineage 7, unique to Ethiopia. Lineage 1 (East-African Indian) and Lineage 2 (Beijing) were represented by 3 and 1 isolates respectively. M. bovis was identified in only two (0.7%) TBLN cases. The cluster rate was highest for Ethiopia_3 isolates showing clonal similarity with isolates from North Ethiopia. Lineage 3 was significantly associated with rifampicin resistance. In TBLN in Southwest Ethiopia, the recently described Ethiopia specific Lineage 4 families were predominant, followed by Lineage 3 and Lineage 4-Haarlem. The contribution of M. bovis in TBLN infection is minimal. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji

PubMed Central

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25–64 years. Methods Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Results Over 1980–2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980–2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Conclusions Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. Implications This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. PMID:27807124

Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-05-01

Recent decades have seen strong trends in hydroclimate over the American Southwest, with major river basins such as the Rio Grande exhibiting intermittent drought and declining runoff efficiencies. The extent to which these observed trends are exceptional has implications for current water management and seasonal streamflow forecasting practices. We present a new reconstruction of runoff ratio for the Upper Rio Grande basin back to 1571 C.E., which provides evidence that the declining trend in runoff ratio from the 1980s to present day is unprecedented in context of the last 445 years. Though runoff ratio is found to vary primarily in proportion to precipitation, the reconstructions suggest a secondary influence of temperature. In years of low precipitation, very low runoff ratios are made 2.5-3 times more likely by high temperatures. This temperature sensitivity appears to have strengthened in recent decades, implying future water management vulnerability should recent warming trends in the region continue.