Variations in population exposure and evacuation potential to multiple tsunami evacuation phases on Alameda and Bay Farm Islands, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, J.

2015-12-01

Planning for a tsunami evacuation is challenging for California communities due to the variety of earthquake sources that could generate a tsunami. A maximum tsunami inundation zone is currently the basis for all tsunami evacuations in California, although an Evacuation Playbook consisting of specific event-based evacuation phases relating to flooding severity is in development. We chose to investigate the Evacuation Playbook approach for the island community of Alameda, CA since past reports estimated a significant difference in numbers of residents in the maximum inundation zone when compared to an event-based inundation zone. In order to recognize variations in the types of residents and businesses within each phase, a population exposure analysis was conducted for each of the four Alameda evacuation phases. A pedestrian evacuation analysis using an anisotropic, path distance model was also conducted to understand the time it would take for populations to reach high ground by foot. Initial results suggest that the two islands of the City of Alameda have different situations when it comes to the four tsunami evacuation phases. Pedestrian evacuation results suggest that Bay Farm Island would have more success evacuating by vehicle due to limited nearby high ground for pedestrians to reach safety. Therefore, agent-based traffic simulation software was used to model vehicle evacuation off Bay Farm Island. Initial results show that Alameda Island could face challenges evacuating numerous boat docks and a large beach for phases 1 and 2, whereas Bay Farm Island is unaffected at these phases but might be challenged with evacuating by vehicle for phases 3 and maximum due to congestion on limited egress routes. A better understanding of the population exposure within each tsunami Evacuation Playbook phase and the time it would take to evacuate out of each phase by foot or vehicle will help emergency managers implement the evacuation phases during an actual tsunami event.

Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Richards, Kevin

2018-01-01

Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle use could be discouraged. The island of Oʻahu has two tsunami-evacuation zones (standard and extreme), which provides the opportunity to examine if recommended travel modes vary based on zone. Geospatial path distance models are applied to estimate population exposure as a function of pedestrian travel time and speed out of evacuation zones. The use of the extreme zone triples the number of residents, employees, and facilities serving at-risk populations that would be encouraged to evacuate and slightly reduces the percentage of residents (98–76%) that could evacuate in less than 15 min at a plausible speed (with similar percentages for employees). Areas with lengthy evacuations are concentrated in the North Shore region for the standard zone but found all around the Oʻahu coastline for the extreme zone. The use of the extreme zone results in a 26% increase in the number of hotel visitors that would be encouraged to evacuate, and a 76% increase in the number of them that may require more than 15 min. Modeling can identify where pedestrian evacuations are plausible; however, there are logistical and behavioral issues that warrant attention before localized evacuation procedures may be realistic.

The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a time map) throughout a hazard zone. Model results provide a general, static view of the evacuation landscape at different pedestrian travel speeds and can be used to identify areas outside the reach of naturally occurring high ground. In addition, data on the size and location of different populations within the hazard zone can be integrated with travel-time maps to create tables and graphs of at-risk population counts as a function of travel time to safety. As a decision-support tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst provides the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of various vertical-evacuation structures within a study area, both through time maps of the modeled travel-time landscape with a potential structure in place and through comparisons of population counts within reach of safety. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is designed for use by researchers examining the pedestrian-evacuation potential of an at-risk community. In communities where modeled evacuation times exceed the event (for example, tsunami wave) arrival time, researchers can use the software with emergency managers to assess the area and population served by potential vertical-evacuation options. By automating and managing the modeling process, the software allows researchers to concentrate efforts on providing crucial and timely information on community vulnerability to sudden-onset hazards.

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Peters, Jeff

2015-01-01

Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been based on single hazard zones, even though a coastal community may be threatened by multiple tsunami sources that vary locally in terms of inundation extents and wave arrival times. We use the Alaskan coastal communities of Cordova, Kodiak, Seward, Valdez, and Whittier (USA), as a case study to explore population vulnerability to multiple tsunami threats. We use anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to assess variations in population exposure as a function of travel time out of hazard zones associated with tectonic and landslide-related tsunamis (based on scenarios similar to the 1964 M w9.2 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster). Results demonstrate that there are thousands of residents, employees, and business customers in tsunami hazard zones associated with tectonically generated waves, but that at-risk individuals will likely have sufficient time to evacuate to high ground before waves are estimated to arrive 30–60 min after generation. Tsunami hazard zones associated with submarine landslides initiated by a subduction zone earthquake are smaller and contain fewer people, but many at-risk individuals may not have enough time to evacuate as waves are estimated to arrive in 1–2 min and evacuations may need to occur during earthquake ground shaking. For all hazard zones, employees and customers at businesses far outnumber residents at their homes and evacuation travel times are highest on docks and along waterfronts. Results suggest that population vulnerability studies related to tsunami hazards should recognize non-residential populations and differences in wave arrival times if emergency managers are to develop realistic preparedness and outreach efforts.

NIRS external dose estimation system for Fukushima residents after the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Fukuda, Shigekazu; Miyahara, Nobuyuki; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Iwaoka, Kazuki; Matsumoto, Masaki; Fukumura, Akifumi; Akashi, Makoto

2013-04-01

The great east Japan earthquake and subsequent tsunamis caused Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) developed the external dose estimation system for Fukushima residents. The system is being used in the Fukushima health management survey. The doses can be obtained by superimposing the behavior data of the residents on the dose rate maps. For grasping the doses, 18 evacuation patterns of the residents were assumed by considering the actual evacuation information before using the survey data. The doses of the residents from the deliberate evacuation area were relatively higher than those from the area within 20 km radius. The estimated doses varied from around 1 to 6 mSv for the residents evacuated from the representative places in the deliberate evacuation area. The maximum dose in 18 evacuation patterns was estimated to be 19 mSv.

NIRS external dose estimation system for Fukushima residents after the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident.

PubMed

Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Fukuda, Shigekazu; Miyahara, Nobuyuki; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Iwaoka, Kazuki; Matsumoto, Masaki; Fukumura, Akifumi; Akashi, Makoto

2013-01-01

The great east Japan earthquake and subsequent tsunamis caused Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) developed the external dose estimation system for Fukushima residents. The system is being used in the Fukushima health management survey. The doses can be obtained by superimposing the behavior data of the residents on the dose rate maps. For grasping the doses, 18 evacuation patterns of the residents were assumed by considering the actual evacuation information before using the survey data. The doses of the residents from the deliberate evacuation area were relatively higher than those from the area within 20 km radius. The estimated doses varied from around 1 to 6 mSv for the residents evacuated from the representative places in the deliberate evacuation area. The maximum dose in 18 evacuation patterns was estimated to be 19 mSv.

Heuristics for Solving Problem of Evacuating Non-Ambulatory People in a Short-Notice Disaster

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Heuristics for Solving Problem of Evacuating Non...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK i REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved...OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for

Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

2017-01-01

Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

2015-12-01

Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

Simulated tsunami run-up amplification factors around Penang Island for preliminary risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yong Hui; Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye; Tan, Wai Kiat

2017-08-01

The mega-tsunami Andaman that struck Malaysia on 26 December 2004 affected 200 kilometers of northwest Peninsular Malaysia coastline from Perlis to Selangor. It is anticipated by the tsunami scientific community that the next mega-tsunami is due to occur any time soon. This rare catastrophic event has awakened the attention of Malaysian government to take appropriate risk reduction measures, including timely and orderly evacuation. To effectively evacuate ordinary citizens to a safe ground or a nearest designated emergency shelter, a well prepared evacuation route is essential with the estimated tsunami run-up heights and inundation distances on land clearly indicated on the evacuation map. The run-up heights and inundation distances are simulated by an in-house model 2-D TUNA-RP based upon credible scientific tsunami source scenarios derived from tectonic activity around the region. To provide a useful tool for estimating the run-up heights along the entire coast of Penang Island, we computed tsunami amplification factors based upon 2-D TUNA-RP model simulations in this paper. The inundation map and run-up amplification factors in six domains along the entire coastline of Penang Island are provided. The comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrates good agreement.

Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2013-01-01

Efforts to characterize population exposure to near-field tsunami threats typically focus on quantifying the number and type of people in tsunami-hazard zones. To develop and prioritize effective risk-reduction strategies, emergency managers also need information on the potential for successful evacuations and how this evacuation potential varies among communities. To improve efforts to properly characterize and differentiate near-field tsunami threats among multiple communities, we assess community variations in population exposure to tsunamis as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety. We focus our efforts on the multiple coastal communities in Grays Harbor and Pacific Counties (State of Washington, USA), where a substantial resident and visitor population is threatened by near-field tsunamis related to a potential Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Anisotropic, path-distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety and results are merged with various population data, including residents, employees, public venues, and dependent-care facilities. Results suggest that there is substantial variability among communities in the number of people that may have insufficient time to evacuate. Successful evacuations may be possible in some communities assuming slow-walking speeds, are plausible in others if travel speeds are increased, and are unlikely in another set of communities given the large distances and short time horizon. Emergency managers can use these results to prioritize the location and determine the most appropriate type of tsunami risk-reduction strategies, such as education and training in areas where evacuations are plausible and vertical-evacuation structures in areas where they are not.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 1: Theoretical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

1996-01-01

We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Spatial Analysis of Traffic and Routing Path Methods for Tsunami Evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhrurrozi, A.; Sari, A. M.

2018-02-01

Tsunami disaster occurred relatively very fast. Thus, it has a very large-scale impact on both non-material and material aspects. Community evacuation caused mass panic, crowds, and traffic congestion. A further research in spatial based modelling, traffic engineering and splitting zone evacuation simulation is very crucial as an effort to reduce higher losses. This topic covers some information from the previous research. Complex parameters include route selection, destination selection, the spontaneous timing of both the departure of the source and the arrival time to destination and other aspects of the result parameter in various methods. The simulation process and its results, traffic modelling, and routing analysis emphasized discussion which is the closest to real conditions in the tsunami evacuation process. The method that we should highlight is Clearance Time Estimate based on Location Priority in which the computation result is superior to others despite many drawbacks. The study is expected to have input to improve and invent a new method that will be a part of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction of tsunamis disaster.

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Spielman, Seth; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2015-01-01

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates (i) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, (ii) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and (iii) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: (i) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, (ii) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and (iii) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Wood, Nathan J; Jones, Jeanne; Spielman, Seth; Schmidtlein, Mathew C

2015-04-28

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates (i) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, (ii) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and (iii) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: (i) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, (ii) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and (iii) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.

Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Schmidtlein, Mathew; Schelling, John; Frazier, T.

2016-01-01

Successful evacuations are critical to saving lives from future tsunamis. Pedestrian-evacuation modeling related to tsunami hazards primarily has focused on identifying areas and the number of people in these areas where successful evacuations are unlikely. Less attention has been paid to identifying evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas for at-risk individuals that may have sufficient time to evacuate. We use the neighboring coastal communities of Hoquiam, Aberdeen, and Cosmopolis (Washington, USA) and the local tsunami threat posed by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes as a case study to explore the use of geospatial, least-cost-distance evacuation modeling for supporting evacuation outreach, response, and relief planning. We demonstrate an approach that uses geospatial evacuation modeling to (a) map the minimum pedestrian travel speeds to safety, the most efficient paths, and collective evacuation basins, (b) estimate the total number and demographic description of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas, and (c) determine which paths may be compromised due to earthquake-induced ground failure. Results suggest a wide range in the magnitude and type of evacuees at predetermined assembly areas and highlight parts of the communities with no readily accessible assembly area. Earthquake-induced ground failures could obstruct access to some assembly areas, cause evacuees to reroute to get to other assembly areas, and isolate some evacuees from relief personnel. Evacuation-modeling methods and results discussed here have implications and application to tsunami-evacuation outreach, training, response procedures, mitigation, and long-term land use planning to increase community resilience.

A microcomputer based traffic evacuation modeling system for emergency planning application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rathi, A.K.

1995-12-31

The US Army stockpiles unitary chemical weapons, both as bulk chemicals and as munitions, at eight major sites in the United States. The continued storage and disposal of the chemical stockpile has the potential for accidental releases of toxic gases that could escape the installation boundaries and pose a threat to the civilian population in the vicinity. Vehicular evacuation is one of the major and often preferred protective action options available for emergency management in a real or anticipated disaster. Computer simulation models of evacuation traffic flow are used to estimate the time required for the affected populations to evacuatemore » to safer areas, to evaluate effectiveness of vehicular evacuations as a protective action option, and to develop comprehensive evacuation plans when required. Following a review of the past efforts to simulate traffic flow during emergency evacuations, an overview of the key features in Version 2.0 of the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS) are presented in this paper. OREMS is a microcomputer-based model developed to simulate traffic flow during regional emergency evacuations. OREMS integrates a state-of-the-art dynamic traffic flow and simulation model with advanced data editing and output display programs operating under a MS-Windows environment.« less

Fleeing The Storm(s): An Examination of Evacuation Behavior During Florida’s 2004 Hurricane Season

PubMed Central

SMITH, STANLEY K.; MCCARTY, CHRIS

2009-01-01

The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in Florida’s history, with four hurricanes causing at least 47 deaths and some $45 billion in damages. To collect information on the demographic impact of those hurricanes, we surveyed households throughout the state and in the local areas that sustained the greatest damage. We estimate that one-quarter of Florida’s population evacuated prior to at least one hurricane; in some areas, well over one-half of the residents evacuated at least once, and many evacuated several times. Most evacuees stayed with family or friends and were away from home for only a few days. Using logistic regression analysis, we found that the strength of the hurricane and the vulnerability of the housing unit had the greatest impact on evacuation behavior; additionally, several demographic variables had significant effects on the probability of evacuating and the choice of evacuation lodging (family/friends, public shelters, or hotels/motels). With continued population growth in coastal areas and the apparent increase in hurricane activity caused by global warming, threats posed by hurricanes are rising in the United States and throughout the world. We believe the present study will help government officials plan more effectively for future hurricane evacuations. PMID:19348112

A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

2018-01-01

Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegscheider, Stephanie; Post, Joachim; Mück, Matthias; Zosseder, Kai; Muhari, Abdul; Anwar, Herryal Z.; Gebert, Niklas; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten

2010-05-01

More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas on the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Depending on the location of the tsunamigenic earthquake, in many cases the time to reach a tsunami-safe area is as short as 15 or 20 minutes. To increase the chances of a successful evacuation a comprehensive and thorough planning and preparation is necessary. For this purpose, detailed knowledge on potential hazard impact and safe areas, exposed elements such as people, critical facilities and lifelines, deficiencies in response capabilities and evacuation routes is crucial. The major aims of this paper are (i) to assess and quantify people's response capabilities and (ii) to identify high risk areas which have a high need of action to improve the response capabilities and thus to reduce the risk. The major factor influencing people's ability to evacuate successfully is the factor time. The estimated time of arrival of a tsunami at the coast which determines the overall available time for evacuation after triggering of a tsunami can be derived by analyzing modeled tsunami scenarios for a respective area. But in most cases, this available time frame is diminished by other time components including the time until natural or technical warning signs are received and the time until reaction follows a warning (understanding a warning and decision to take appropriate action). For the time to receive a warning we assume that the early warning centre is able to fulfil the Indonesian presidential decree to issue a warning within 5 minutes. Reaction time is difficult to quantify as here human intrinsic factors as educational level, believe, tsunami knowledge and experience play a role. Although we are aware of the great importance of this factor and the importance to minimize the reaction time, it is not considered in this paper. Quantifying the needed evacuation time is based on a GIS approach. This approach is relatively simple and enables local authorities to implement it at low technical complexity and relatively low cost and time needs. Basic principle is to define the best evacuation route from a given point to the nearest safe area. Here the fastest path from that point to the shelter location has to be found. Thereby the impact of land cover, slope, population density, population age and gender distribution are taken into account as literature studies prove these factors as highly important. Knowing the fastest path and the distance to the nearest safe area together with a spatially distributed pattern of evacuation speed delivers the time needed from each location to a shelter. A shelter location can either be a horizontal area or an evacuation building (vertical evacuation). For both kinds of evacuation target points, one limiting factor can be again time: are the people able to reach the target point within the available time? Especially for evacuation buildings, there is a second possibly limiting factor, namely capacity. In the majority of cases in all of the three study areas where this approach was applied to, capacity was the critical factor instead of time. Consequently, for planning purposes it is essential to know which area can be served by an evacuation building and which areas have to be assigned to a different evacuation target point due to exhausted capacity of the nearest one. The coverage of a building is also derived on basis of a GIS approach using the beforehand derived available and needed evacuation times and detailed population distribution data. Evacuation time and derived evacuable areas are then used to identify high risk areas. In combination with detailed population distribution data, hazard probability and hazard intensity, it is possible to identify areas with high risk and large deficiencies in response capabilities. Often enough, human response capabilities can be increased by thorough disaster planning and thus, the results of this paper provide valuable information for planning authorities to decrease the risk. This paper presents results exemplarily for the study area Kuta, Bali where we tested this approach and where it is also in progress to be implemented by local authorities.

Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest

PubMed Central

Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne; Spielman, Seth; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2015-01-01

Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do not recognize the hazard context. We introduce an analytical framework for describing variations in population vulnerability to tsunami hazards that integrates (i) geospatial approaches to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, (ii) anisotropic path distance models to estimate evacuation travel times to safety, and (iii) cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. We demonstrate this approach by classifying 49 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties from northern California to northern Washington that are directly threatened by tsunami waves associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results suggest three primary community groups: (i) relatively low numbers of exposed populations with varied demographic sensitivities, (ii) high numbers of exposed populations but sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival, and (iii) moderate numbers of exposed populations but insufficient time to evacuate. Results can be used to enhance general hazard-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges. PMID:25870283

Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami-evacuation planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.; Jones, J. M.; Schmidtlein, M.

2015-12-01

Near-field tsunami hazards are credible threats to many coastal communities throughout the world. Along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, low-lying areas could be inundated by a series of catastrophic tsunamis potentially arriving in a matter of minutes following a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. We developed a geospatial-modeling method for characterizing pedestrian-evacuation flow paths and evacuation basins to support evacuation and relief planning efforts for coastal communities in this region. We demonstrate this approach using the coastal communities of Aberdeen, Hoquiam, and Cosmopolis in southwestern Grays Harbor County, Washington (USA), where previous research suggests approximately 20,500 people (99% of the residents in tsunami-hazard zones) will likely have enough time to evacuate before tsunami-wave arrival. Geospatial, anisotropic, path distance models were developed to map the most efficient pedestrian paths to higher ground from locations within the tsunami-hazard zone. This information was then used to identify evacuation basins, outlining neighborhoods sharing a common evacuation pathway to safety. We then estimated the number of people traveling along designated evacuation pathways and arriving at pre-determined safe assembly areas, helping determine shelter demand and relief support (e.g., for elderly individuals or tourists). Finally, we assessed which paths may become inaccessible due to earthquake-induced ground failures, a factor which may impact an individual's success in reaching safe ground. The presentation will include a discussion of the implications of our analysis for developing more comprehensive coastal community tsunami-evacuation planning strategies worldwide.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. A.; Wood, N. J.; Johnston, D. M.; Leonard, G. S.; Greening, P. D.; Rossetto, T.

2014-06-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate evacuation departure time or assumed a common departure time for all exposed population. In this paper, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The model is demonstrated for a case study of local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb-level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds can approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S. A.; Wood, N. J.; Johnston, D. M.; Leonard, G. S.; Greening, P. D.; Rossetto, T.

2014-11-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fraser, Stuart A.; Wood, Nathan J.; Johnston, David A.; Leonard, Graham S.; Greening, Paul D.; Rossetto, Tiziana

2014-01-01

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Mück, M.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Taubenböck, H.; Strunz, G.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Decision makers at the community level need detailed information on tsunami risks in their area. Knowledge on potential hazard impact, exposed elements such as people, critical facilities and lifelines, people's coping capacity and recovery potential are crucial to plan precautionary measures for adaptation and to mitigate potential impacts of tsunamis on society and the environment. A crucial point within a people-centred tsunami risk assessment is to quantify the human response capabilities towards tsunami threats. Based on this quantification and spatial representation in maps tsunami affected and safe areas, difficult-to-evacuate areas, evacuation target points and evacuation routes can be assigned and used as an important contribution to e.g. community level evacuation planning. Major component in the quantification of human response capabilities towards tsunami impacts is the factor time. The human response capabilities depend on the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of a tsunami, the time until technical or natural warning signs (ToNW) can be received, the reaction time (RT) of the population (human understanding of a tsunami warning and the decision to take appropriate action), the evacuation time (ET, time people need to reach a safe area) and the actual available response time (RsT = ETA - ToNW - RT). If RsT is larger than ET, people in the respective areas are able to reach a safe area and rescue themselves. Critical areas possess RsT values equal or even smaller ET and hence people whin these areas will be directly affected by a tsunami. Quantifying the factor time is challenging and an attempt to this is presented here. The ETA can be derived by analyzing pre-computed tsunami scenarios for a respective area. For ToNW we assume that the early warning center is able to fulfil the Indonesian presidential decree to issue a warning within 5 minutes. RT is difficult as here human intrinsic factors as educational level, believe, tsunami knowledge and experience besides others play a role. An attempt to quantify this variable under high uncertainty is also presented. Quantifying ET is based on a GIS modelling using a Cost Weighted Distance approach. Basic principle is to define the best evacuation path from a given point to the next safe area (shelter location). Here the fastest path from that point to the shelter location has to be found. Thereby the impact of land cover, slope, population density, population age and gender distribution are taken into account as literature studies prove these factors as highly important. Knowing the fastest path and the distance to the next safe area together with a spatially distributed pattern of evacuation speed delivers the time needed from each location to a safe area. By considering now the obtained time value for RsT the coverage area of an evacuation target point (safe area) can be assigned. Incorporating knowledge on people capacity of an evacuation target point the respective coverage area is refined. Hence areas with weak, moderate and good human response capabilities can be detected. This allows calculation of potential amount of people affected (dead or injured) and amount of people dislocated. First results for Kuta (Bali) for a worst case tsunami event deliver people affected of approx. 25 000 when RT = 0 minutes (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning to 120 000 when RT > ETA (no evacuation action until tsunami hits the land). Additionally fastest evacuation routes to the evacuation target points can be assigned. Areas with weak response capabilities can be assigned as priority areas to install e.g. additional evacuation target points or to increase tsunami knowledge and awareness to promote a faster reaction time. Especially in analyzing underlying socio-economic properties causing deficiencies in responding to a tsunami threat can lead to valuable information and direct planning of adaptation measures. Keywords: Community level, Risk and vulnerability assessment, Early warning, Disaster management, Tsunami, Indonesia

Numerical Simulation of Evacuation Process in Malaysia By Using Distinct-Element-Method Based Multi-Agent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abustan, M. S.; Rahman, N. A.; Gotoh, H.; Harada, E.; Talib, S. H. A.

2016-07-01

In Malaysia, not many researches on crowd evacuation simulation had been reported. Hence, the development of numerical crowd evacuation process by taking into account people behavioral patterns and psychological characteristics is crucial in Malaysia. On the other hand, tsunami disaster began to gain attention of Malaysian citizens after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that need quick evacuation process. In relation to the above circumstances, we have conducted simulations of tsunami evacuation process at the Miami Beach of Penang Island by using Distinct Element Method (DEM)-based crowd behavior simulator. The main objectives are to investigate and reproduce current conditions of evacuation process at the said locations under different hypothetical scenarios for the efficiency study of the evacuation. The sim-1 is initial condition of evacuation planning while sim-2 as improvement of evacuation planning by adding new evacuation area. From the simulation result, sim-2 have a shorter time of evacuation process compared to the sim-1. The evacuation time recuded 53 second. The effect of the additional evacuation place is confirmed from decreasing of the evacuation completion time. Simultaneously, the numerical simulation may be promoted as an effective tool in studying crowd evacuation process.

Comparison of calculation and simulation of evacuation in real buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szénay, Martin; Lopušniak, Martin

2018-03-01

Each building must meet requirements for safe evacuation in order to prevent casualties. Therefore methods for evaluation of evacuation are used when designing buildings. In the paper, calculation methods were tested on three real buildings. The testing used methods of evacuation time calculation pursuant to Slovak standards and evacuation time calculation using the buildingExodus simulation software. If calculation methods have been suitably selected taking into account the nature of evacuation and at the same time if correct values of parameters were entered, we will be able to obtain almost identical times of evacuation in comparison with real results obtained from simulation. The difference can range from 1% to 27%.

Assessing the long-term impact of subsidence and global climate change on emergency evacuation routes in coastal Louisiana.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

Subsidence forecast models for coastal Louisiana were developed to estimate the change in surface elevations of evacuation routes for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Geophysical and anthropogenic subsidence estimates were derived from on-going ...

Evacuation of Swedish survivors after the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami: The survivors' perspective and symptoms of post-traumatic stress.

PubMed

Gudmundsdottir, Ragnhildur; Hultman, Christina M; Valdimarsdottir, Unnur

2018-04-01

Following the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami, Swedish authorities received public criticism for slow implementation of rescue work. Meanwhile, data are scarce on survivors' perspectives and potential mental health symptoms associated with timing of evacuation. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate survivors' contentment with evacuation time and whether duration at disaster site following the 2004 tsunami was associated with post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and psychological morbidity. Of 10,116 Swedish tsunami survivors who returned to Sweden in the first 3 weeks post tsunami, 4910 (49%) answered a questionnaire 14 months later including questions on evacuation time, contentment with evacuation time and PTSS (Impact of Event Scale). We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of PTSS by timing of evacuation adjusting for gender, age, education, various indicators of trauma exposure and pre-tsunami psychiatric diagnoses. More than half of the survivors (53%) were content with evacuation time while 33% wanted later evacuation and 13% earlier evacuation. Compared with those evacuated 14-21 days post tsunami, individuals evacuated at day 1-4 presented with increased odds of PTSS (crude OR 3.0, 95% CI 2.0-4.5; and multivariable adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-3.0) and impaired mental health (crude OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4; and multivariable adjusted OR 1.4 95% CI 1.0-2.0). One-third of Swedish tsunami survivors preferred a later evacuation from disaster sites. These findings call for further studies, with prospective designs, to disentangle the causal direction of the association between evacuation time and PTSS.

Experimental study on occupant evacuation in narrow seat aisle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shenshi; Lu, Shouxiang; Lo, Siuming; Li, Changhai; Guo, Yafei

2018-07-01

Narrow seat aisle is an important area in the train car interior due to the large passenger population, however evacuation therein has not gained enough concerns. In this experimental study, the occupant evacuation of the narrow seat aisle area is investigated, with the aisle width of 0.4-0.6 m and the evacuation direction of forward and backward. The evacuation behaviors are analyzed based on the video record, and the discussion is carried out in the aspect of evacuation time, crowdedness, evacuation order, and aisle conflicts. The result shows that with the increasing aisle width, total evacuation time and the average specific evacuation rate decrease. The aisle is crowded for some time, with a large linear occupant densities. The evacuation order of each occupant is mainly related to the seat position. Moreover, it is found that the aisle conflicts can be well described by Burstedde's model. This study gives a useful benchmark for evacuation simulation of narrow seat aisle, and provides reference to safety design of seat area in train cars.

A study on evacuation time from lecture halls in Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othman, W. N. A. W.; Tohir, M. Z. M.

2018-04-01

An evacuation situation in any building involves many risks. The geometry of building and high potential of occupant load may affect the efficiency of evacuation process. Although fire safety rules and regulations exist, they remain insufficient to guarantee the safety of all building occupants and do not prevent the dramatic events to be repeated. The main objective of this project is to investigate the relationship between the movement time, travel speed and occupant density during a series of evacuation drills specifically for lecture halls. Generally, this study emphasizes on the movement of crowd within a limited space and includes the aspects of human behaviour. A series of trial evacuations were conducted in selected lecture halls at Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia with the aim of collecting actual data for numerical analysis. The numerical data obtained during trial evacuations were used to determine the evacuation time, crowd movement and behaviour during evacuation process particularly for lecture halls. The evacuation time and number of occupants exiting from each exit were recorded. Video camera was used to record and observe the movement behaviour of occupants during evacuations. EvacuatioNZ was used to simulate the trials evacuations of DK 5 and the results predicted were compared with experimental data. EvacuatioNZ was also used to predict the evacuation time and the flow of occupants exiting from each door for DK 4 and DK 8.

Predation by northern pikeminnow on juvenile salmonids in The Dalles Dam tailrace: field, laboratory, and habitat modeling studies (FY2000)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, James H.; Barfoot, Craig A.; Sheer, Mindi B.

2001-01-01

Predation by resident fish is known to be a substantial cause of juvenile salmonid mortality, especially in dam tailraces and outfall locations. Conditions in The Dalles Dam tailrace are unique compared to other projects on the Columbia or Snake rivers, having a complex basin with a series of downriver islands where predators are known to reside. In May-June of 1999, northern pikeminnow and smallmouth bass were sampled in the tailrace of The Dalles Dam during periods immediately following the release of PIT-tagged juvenile salmonids for survival studies. Over twice as many smallmouth bass (N = 101) were collected as northern pikeminnow (N = 40), but none of the predators had PIT tags within their gut. A laboratory study was conducted to estimate the time required for PIT tags in juvenile salmonids to be evacuated from the gut of northern pikeminnow after consuming a tagged preyfish. Evacuation rate was sensitive to temperature, with median evacuation time being 21 h at 18 oC and 30 h at 14 oC. These results suggest that field studies to estimate predator population sizes, feeding rates, or predation on specific release groups would require considerably more effort than we allocated during 1999.

Long term mental health outcomes of Finnish children evacuated to Swedish families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings: cohort study.

PubMed

Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Betancourt, Theresa S; Gilman, Stephen E

2015-01-05

To compare the risks of admission to hospital for any type of psychiatric disorder and for four specific psychiatric disorders among adults who as children were evacuated to Swedish foster families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings, and to evaluate whether these risks differ between the sexes. Cohort study. National child evacuation scheme in Finland during the second world war. Children born in Finland between 1933 and 1944 who were later included in a 10% sample of the 1950 Finnish census ascertained in 1997 (n = 45,463; women: n = 22,021; men: n = 23,442). Evacuees in the sample were identified from war time government records. Adults admitted to hospital for psychiatric disorders recorded between 1971 and 2011 in the Finnish hospital discharge register. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between evacuation to temporary foster care in Sweden during the second world war and admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder between ages 38 and 78 years. Fixed effects methods were employed to control for all unobserved social and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Among men and women combined, the risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder did not differ between Finnish adults evacuated to Swedish foster families and their non-evacuated siblings (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.26). Evidence suggested a lower risk of admission for any mental disorder (0.67, 0.44 to 1.03) among evacuated men, whereas for women there was no association between evacuation and the overall risk of admission for a psychiatric disorder (1.21, 0.80 to 1.83). When admissions for individual psychiatric disorders were analyzed, evacuated girls were significantly more likely than their non-evacuated sisters to be admitted to hospital for a mood disorder as an adult (2.19, 1.10 to 4.33). The Finnish evacuation policy was not associated with an increased overall risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder in adulthood among former evacuees. In fact, evacuation was associated with a marginally reduced risk of admission for any psychiatric disorder among men. Among women who had been evacuated, however, the risk of being admitted to hospital for a mood disorder was increased. © Santavirta et al 2014.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-09-01

The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

Study on queueing behavior in pedestrian evacuation by extended cellular automata model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jun; You, Lei; Zhang, Hong; Wei, Juan; Guo, Yangyong

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a pedestrian evacuation model for effective simulation of evacuation efficiency based on extended cellular automata. In the model, pedestrians' momentary transition probability to a target position is defined in terms of the floor field and queueing time, and the critical time is defined as the waiting time threshold in a queue. Queueing time and critical time are derived using Fractal Brownian Motion through analysis of pedestrian arrival characteristics. Simulations using the platform and actual evacuations were conducted to study the relationships among system evacuation time, average system velocity, pedestrian density, flow rate, and critical time. The results demonstrate that at low pedestrian density, evacuation efficiency can be improved through adoption of the shortest route strategy, and critical time has an inverse relationship with average system velocity. Conversely, at higher pedestrian densities, it is better to adopt the shortest queueing time strategy, and critical time is inversely related to flow rate.

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a catastrophe risk model, is required to explore the casualty implications of different possible hazard scenarios, to assess the proportion of an evacuated population who would owe their lives to an evacuation, and to estimate the economic loss associated with an unnecessary evacuation. This paper will review the developing methodology for applying catastrophe risk modelling to support public policy in evacuation decision-making, and provide illustrations from across the range of natural hazards. Evacuation during volcanic crises is a prime example, recognizing the improving forecasting skill of volcanologists, now able to account probabilistically for precursory seismological, geodetic, and geochemical monitoring data. This methodology will be shown to help civic authorities make sounder risk-informed decisions on the timing and population segmentation of evacuation from both volcanoes and calderas, such as Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, which are in densely populated urban regions.

An Evaluation of Infrastructure for Tsunami Evacuation in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cedillos, V.; Canney, N.; Deierlein, G.; Diposaptono, S.; Geist, E. L.; Henderson, S.; Ismail, F.; Jachowski, N.; McAdoo, B. G.; Muhari, A.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Sieh, K. E.; Toth, J.; Tucker, B. E.; Wood, K.

2009-12-01

Padang has one of the world’s highest tsunami risks due to its high hazard, vulnerable terrain and population density. The current strategy to prepare for tsunamis in Padang is focused on developing early warning systems, planning evacuation routes, conducting evacuation drills, and raising local awareness. Although these are all necessary, they are insufficient. Padang’s proximity to the Sunda Trench and flat terrain make reaching safe ground impossible for much of the population. The natural warning in Padang - a strong earthquake that lasts over a minute - will be the first indicator of a potential tsunami. People will have about 30 minutes after the earthquake to reach safe ground. It is estimated that roughly 50,000 people in Padang will be unable to evacuate in that time. Given these conditions, other means to prepare for the expected tsunami must be developed. With this motivation, GeoHazards International and Stanford University’s Chapter of Engineers for a Sustainable World partnered with Indonesian organizations - Andalas University and Tsunami Alert Community in Padang, Laboratory for Earth Hazards, and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries - in an effort to evaluate the need for and feasibility of tsunami evacuation infrastructure in Padang. Tsunami evacuation infrastructure can include earthquake-resistant bridges and evacuation structures that rise above the maximum tsunami water level, and can withstand the expected earthquake and tsunami forces. The choices for evacuation structures vary widely - new and existing buildings, evacuation towers, soil berms, elevated highways and pedestrian overpasses. This interdisciplinary project conducted a course at Stanford University, undertook several field investigations, and concluded that: (1) tsunami evacuation structures and bridges are essential to protect the people in Padang, (2) there is a need for a more thorough engineering-based evaluation than conducted to-date of the suitability of existing buildings to serve as evacuation structures, and of existing bridges to serve as elements of evacuation routes, and (3) additions to Padang’s tsunami evacuation infrastructure must carefully take into account technical matters (e.g. expected wave height, debris impact forces), social considerations (e.g. cultural acceptability, public’s confidence in the structure’s integrity), and political issues (e.g. land availability, cost, maintenance). Future plans include collaboration between U.S. and Indonesian engineers in developing designs for new tsunami evacuation structures, as well as providing training for Indonesian authorities on: (1) siting, designing, and constructing tsunami evacuation structures, and (2) evaluating the suitability of existing buildings to serve as tsunami evacuation shelters.

Understanding and managing disaster evacuation on a transportation network.

PubMed

Lambert, James H; Parlak, Ayse I; Zhou, Qian; Miller, John S; Fontaine, Michael D; Guterbock, Thomas M; Clements, Janet L; Thekdi, Shital A

2013-01-01

Uncertain population behaviors in a regional emergency could potentially harm the performance of the region's transportation system and subsequent evacuation effort. The integration of behavioral survey data with travel demand modeling enables an assessment of transportation system performance and the identification of operational and public health countermeasures. This paper analyzes transportation system demand and system performance for emergency management in three disaster scenarios. A two-step methodology first estimates the number of trips evacuating the region, thereby capturing behavioral aspects in a scientifically defensible manner based on survey results, and second, assigns these trips to a regional highway network, using geographic information systems software, thereby making the methodology transferable to other locations. Performance measures are generated for each scenario including maps of volume-to-capacity ratios, geographic contours of evacuation time from the center of the region, and link-specific metrics such as weighted average speed and traffic volume. The methods are demonstrated on a 600 segment transportation network in Washington, DC (USA) and are applied to three scenarios involving attacks from radiological dispersion devices (e.g., dirty bombs). The results suggests that: (1) a single detonation would degrade transportation system performance two to three times more than that which occurs during a typical weekday afternoon peak hour, (2) volume on several critical arterials within the network would exceed capacity in the represented scenarios, and (3) resulting travel times to reach intended destinations imply that un-aided evacuation is impractical. These results assist decisions made by two categories of emergency responders: (1) transportation managers who provide traveler information and who make operational adjustments to improve the network (e.g., signal retiming) and (2) public health officials who maintain shelters, food and water stations, or first aid centers along evacuation routes. This approach may also interest decisionmakers who are in a position to influence the allocation of emergency resources, including healthcare providers, infrastructure owners, transit providers, and regional or local planning staff. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Identification of Potential Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Sites: A Case Study of Shizuoka City, Japan.

PubMed

Voulgaris, Gerasimos; Aleksejeva, Jelena

2017-04-24

The city of Shizuoka directly faces the Nankai Trough (known for its tsunamigenic history), and is facing a potential tsunami threat. In this setting vertical evacuation can be of great significance in reducing loss of life. We apply a GIS based method in order to identify sites that could be utilized for vertical evacuation within the existing building stock of the city, under two tsunami scenarios of 5 and 10 meters of run-up. For each building, we estimate the volume that is expected to be lost per scenario, as well as the number of people inside and how that number fluctuates over different times of the day. Using the criteria of 25% or less building volume loss and 6 cubic meters of volume per person, resulted in 2,046 potential sites for the 10 meter scenario and 1,643 potential sites for the 5 meter scenario, with the maximum amount of people that can potentially be accepted in these sites in the morning hours being 873,537 in the 10 meter scenario and 304,734 in the 5 meter scenario. Our approach has shown that there is a temporal aspect in tsunami vertical evacuation due to the movement of the local population throughout the day. the proposed method can be used for preliminary identification of potential vertical evacuation sites, however, it must be followed by further vulnerability and engineering assessments of buildings, in combination with accessibility and evacuation routing in order to reach a viable and complete evacuation plan.

Spatiotemporal Identification of Potential Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Sites: A Case Study of Shizuoka City, Japan

PubMed Central

Voulgaris, Gerasimos; Aleksejeva, Jelena

2017-01-01

Introduction: The city of Shizuoka directly faces the Nankai Trough (known for its tsunamigenic history), and is facing a potential tsunami threat. In this setting vertical evacuation can be of great significance in reducing loss of life. Methods: We apply a GIS based method in order to identify sites that could be utilized for vertical evacuation within the existing building stock of the city, under two tsunami scenarios of 5 and 10 meters of run-up. For each building, we estimate the volume that is expected to be lost per scenario, as well as the number of people inside and how that number fluctuates over different times of the day. Results: Using the criteria of 25% or less building volume loss and 6 cubic meters of volume per person, resulted in 2,046 potential sites for the 10 meter scenario and 1,643 potential sites for the 5 meter scenario, with the maximum amount of people that can potentially be accepted in these sites in the morning hours being 873,537 in the 10 meter scenario and 304,734 in the 5 meter scenario. Discussion: Our approach has shown that there is a temporal aspect in tsunami vertical evacuation due to the movement of the local population throughout the day. the proposed method can be used for preliminary identification of potential vertical evacuation sites, however, it must be followed by further vulnerability and engineering assessments of buildings, in combination with accessibility and evacuation routing in order to reach a viable and complete evacuation plan. PMID:28736680

76 FR 75771 - Emergency Planning Guidance for Nuclear Power Plants

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-05

... Guidance for Nuclear Power Plants AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Issuance of NUREG... Support of Nuclear Power Plants;'' NSIR/DPR-ISG-01, ``Interim Staff Guidance Emergency Planning for Nuclear Power Plants;'' and NUREG/CR-7002, ``Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies...

Crowd evacuation model based on bacterial foraging algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibiao, Mu; Zhijun, Chen

To understand crowd evacuation, a model based on a bacterial foraging algorithm (BFA) is proposed in this paper. Considering dynamic and static factors, the probability of pedestrian movement is established using cellular automata. In addition, given walking and queue times, a target optimization function is built. At the same time, a BFA is used to optimize the objective function. Finally, through real and simulation experiments, the relationship between the parameters of evacuation time, exit width, pedestrian density, and average evacuation speed is analyzed. The results show that the model can effectively describe a real evacuation.

Automatic smoke evacuation in laparoscopic surgery: a simplified method for objective evaluation.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hidekazu; Yamasaki, Makoto; Hirota, Masashi; Miyazaki, Yasuaki; Moon, Jeong Ho; Souma, Yoshihito; Mori, Masaki; Doki, Yuichiro; Nakajima, Kiyokazu

2013-08-01

Although its theoretical usefulness has been reported, the true value of automatic smoke evacuation system in laparoscopic surgery remains unknown. This is mainly due to the lack of objective evaluation. The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of the automatic smoke evacuator in laparoscopic surgery, by real-time objective evaluation system using an industrial smoke-detection device. Six pigs were used in this study. Three surgical ports were placed and electrosurgical smoke was generated in a standard fashion, using either a high-frequency electrosurgical unit (HF-ESU) or laparosonic coagulating shears (LCS). The smoke was evacuated immediately in the evacuation group but not in the control nonevacuation group. The laparoscopic field-of-view was subjectively evaluated by ten independent surgeons. The composition of the surgical smoke was analyzed by mass spectrometry. The residual smoke in the abdominal cavity was aspirated manually into a smoke tester, and stains on a filter paper were image captured, digitized, and semiquantified. Subjective evaluation indicated superior field-of-view in the evacuation group, compared with the control, at 15 s after activation of the HF-ESU (P < 0.05). The smoke comprised various chemical compounds, including known carcinogens. The estimated volume of intra-abdominal residual smoke after activation of HF-ESU was significantly lower in the evacuation group (47.4 ± 16.6) than the control (76.7 ± 2.4, P = 0.0018). Only marginal amount of surgical smoke was detected in both groups after LCS when the tissue pad was free from burnt tissue deposits. However, the amount was significantly lower in the evacuation group (21.3 ± 10.7) than the control (75 ± 39.9, P = 0.044) when the tissue pad contained tissue sludge. Automatic smoke evacuation provides better field-of-view and reduces the risk of exposure to harmful compounds.

Agent-based evacuation simulation for spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia; Wen, Jiahong; Jiang, Yong

2015-12-01

The construction of urban shelters is one of the most important work in urban planning and disaster prevention. The spatial allocation assessment is a fundamental pre-step for spatial location-allocation of urban shelters. This paper introduces a new method which makes use of agent-based technology to implement evacuation simulation so as to conduct dynamic spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters. The method can not only accomplish traditional geospatial evaluation for urban shelters, but also simulate the evacuation process of the residents to shelters. The advantage of utilizing this method lies into three aspects: (1) the evacuation time of each citizen from a residential building to the shelter can be estimated more reasonably; (2) the total evacuation time of all the residents in a region is able to be obtained; (3) the road congestions in evacuation in sheltering can be detected so as to take precautionary measures to prevent potential risks. In this study, three types of agents are designed: shelter agents, government agents and resident agents. Shelter agents select specified land uses as shelter candidates for different disasters. Government agents delimitate the service area of each shelter, in other words, regulate which shelter a person should take, in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distance between the person's position and the location of the shelter. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, walking speeds, and so on. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, helping old people and children, and so on. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, evacuation procedures can be simulated and dynamic allocation assessment of shelters will be achieved. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. A scenario of earthquake disaster which occurs in nighttime was set to simulate the evacuation process of the residents to the earthquake shelter candidates in the study area. The simulation results convinced that the proposed method can better evaluate the spatial configuration of urban shelter than traditional GIS methods. The method can help local decision-makers preferably handle shelter planning and emergency evacuation management problems. It can also be extended to conduct similar assessment work in other urban regions for different kinds of shelters.

Simulation of pedestrian crowds’ evacuation in a huge transit terminal subway station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran; Hao, Xinpeng; Deng, Baoshun

2012-11-01

As modernized urban rail transportation, subways are playing an important role in transiting large passenger flows. Passengers are in high density within the subway during rush hours. The casualty and injury will be tremendous if an accident occurs, such as a fire. Hence, enough attention should be paid on pedestrian crowds’ evacuation in a subway. In this paper, simulation of the process of pedestrian crowds’ evacuation from a huge transit terminal subway station is conducted. The evacuation process in different cases is conducted by using an agent-based model. Effects of occupant density, exit width and automatic fare gates on evacuation time are studied in detail. It is found that, with the increase of the occupant density, the evacuation efficiency would decline. There is a linear relationship between occupant density and evacuation time. Different occupant densities correspond to different critical exit widths. However, the existence of the automatic fare gates has little effect on evacuation time and tendency. The current results of this study will be helpful in guiding evacuation designs of huge underground spaces.

Evacuating damaged and destroyed buildings on 9/11: behavioral and structural barriers.

PubMed

Groeger, Justina L; Stellman, Steven D; Kravitt, Alexandra; Brackbill, Robert M

2013-12-01

Evacuation of the World Trade Center (WTC) twin towers and surrounding buildings damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks provides a unique opportunity to study factors that affect emergency evacuation of high rise buildings. Problem The goal of this study is to understand the extent to which structural and behavioral barriers and limitations of personal mobility affected evacuation by occupants of affected buildings on September 11, 2001. This analysis included 5,023 civilian, adult enrollees within the World Trade Center Health Registry who evacuated the two World Trade Center towers and over 30 other Lower Manhattan buildings that were damaged or destroyed on September 11, 2001. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict total evacuation time (<30 to ≤60 minutes, >1 hour to <2 hours relative to ≤30 minutes) in relation to number of infrastructure barriers and number of behavioral barriers, adjusted for demographic and other factors. A higher percentage of evacuees reported encountering at least one behavioral barrier (84.9%) than reported at least one infrastructure barrier (51.9%). This pattern was consistent in all buildings except WTC 1, the first building attacked, where >90% of evacuees reported encountering both types of barriers. Smoke and poor lighting were the most frequently-reported structural barriers. Extreme crowding, lack of communication with officials, and being surrounded by panicked crowds were the most frequently-reported behavioral barriers. Multivariate analyses showed evacuation time to be independently associated with the number of each type of barrier as well as gender (longer times for women), but not with the floor from which evacuation began. After adjustment, personal mobility impairment was not associated with increased evacuation time. Because most high-rise buildings have unique designs, infrastructure factors tend to be less predictable than behavioral factors, but both need to be considered in developing emergency evacuation plans in order to decrease evacuation time and, consequently, risk of injury and death during an emergency evacuation.

Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

2015-01-01

After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

Disentangling the Impact of Social Groups on Response Times and Movement Dynamics in Evacuations

PubMed Central

Bode, Nikolai W. F.; Holl, Stefan; Mehner, Wolfgang; Seyfried, Armin

2015-01-01

Crowd evacuations are paradigmatic examples for collective behaviour, as interactions between individuals lead to the overall movement dynamics. Approaches assuming that all individuals interact in the same way have significantly improved our understanding of pedestrian crowd evacuations. However, this scenario is unlikely, as many pedestrians move in social groups that are based on friendship or kinship. We test how the presence of social groups affects the egress time of individuals and crowds in a representative crowd evacuation experiment. Our results suggest that the presence of social groups increases egress times and that this is largely due to differences at two stages of evacuations. First, individuals in social groups take longer to show a movement response at the start of evacuations, and, second, they take longer to move into the vicinity of the exits once they have started to move towards them. Surprisingly, there are no discernible time differences between the movement of independent individuals and individuals in groups directly in front of the exits. We explain these results and discuss their implications. Our findings elucidate behavioural differences between independent individuals and social groups in evacuations. Such insights are crucial for the control of crowd evacuations and for planning mass events. PMID:25785603

Condition for dust evacuation from the first galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukushima, Hajime; Yajima, Hidenobu; Omukai, Kazuyuki

2018-06-01

Dust enables low-mass stars to form from low-metallicity gas by inducing fragmentation of clouds via cooling by thermal emission. Dust may, however, be evacuated from star-forming clouds due to the radiation force from massive stars. We study here the condition for dust evacuation by comparing the dust evacuation time with the time of cloud destruction due to either expansion of H II regions or supernovae. The cloud destruction time has a weak dependence on cloud radius, while the dust evacuation time is shorter for a cloud with a smaller radius. Dust evacuation, thus, occurs in compact star-forming clouds whose column density is NH ≃ 1024-1026 cm-2. The critical halo mass above which dust evacuation occurs is lower for higher formation red shift, e.g. ˜109 M⊙ at red shift z ˜ 3 and ˜107 M⊙ at z ˜ 9. In addition, the metallicity of the gas should be less than ˜10-2 Z⊙, otherwise attenuation by dust reduces the radiation force significantly. From the dust-evacuated gas, massive stars are likely to form, even with a metallicity above ˜10-5 Z⊙, the critical value for low-mass star formation due to dust cooling. This can explain the dearth of ultra-metal-poor stars with a metallicity lower than ˜10-4 Z⊙.

Evacuation simulation with consideration of obstacle removal and using game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Guan-Wen; Wong, Sai-Keung

2018-06-01

In this paper, we integrate a cellular automaton model with game theory to simulate crowd evacuation from a room with consideration of obstacle removal. The room has one or more exits, one of which is blocked by obstacles. The obstacles at the exit can be removed by volunteers. We investigate the cooperative and defective behaviors of pedestrians during evacuation. The yielder game and volunteer's dilemma game are employed to resolve interpedestrian conflict. An anticipation floor field is proposed to guide the pedestrians to avoid obstacles that are being removed. We conducted experiments to determine how a variety of conditions affect overall crowd evacuation and volunteer evacuation times. The conditions were the start time of obstacle removal, number of obstacles, placement of obstacles, time spent in obstacle removal, strength of the anticipation floor field, and obstacle visibility distance. We demonstrate how reciprocity can be achieved among pedestrians and increases the efficiency of the entire evacuation process.

Intrarectal pressures and balloon expulsion related to evacuation proctography.

PubMed Central

Halligan, S; Thomas, J; Bartram, C

1995-01-01

Seventy four patients with constipation were examined by standard evacuation proctography and then attempted to expel a small, non-deformable rectal balloon, connected to a pressure transducer to measure intrarectal pressure. Simultaneous imaging related the intrarectal position of the balloon to rectal deformity. Inability to expel the balloon was associated proctographically with prolonged evacuation, incomplete evacuation, reduced anal canal diameter, and acute anorectal angulation during evacuation. The presence and size of rectocoele or intussusception was unrelated to voiding of paste or balloon. An independent linear combination of pelvic floor descent and evacuation time on proctography correctly predicted maximum intrarectal pressure in 74% of cases. No patient with both prolonged evacuation and reduced pelvic floor descent on proctography could void the balloon, as maximum intrarectal pressure was reduced in this group. A prolonged evacuation time on proctography, in combination with reduced pelvic floor descent, suggests defecatory disorder may be caused by inability to raise intrarectal pressure. A diagnosis of anismus should not be made on proctography solely on the basis of incomplete/prolonged evacuation, as this may simply reflect inadequate straining. PMID:7672656

Application of fire and evacuation models in evaluation of fire safety in railway tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cábová, Kamila; Apeltauer, Tomáš; Okřinová, Petra; Wald, František

2017-09-01

The paper describes an application of numerical simulation of fire dynamics and evacuation of people in a tunnel. The software tool Fire Dynamics Simulator is used to simulate temperature resolution and development of smoke in a railway tunnel. Comparing to temperature curves which are usually used in the design stage results of the model show that the numerical model gives lower temperature of hot smoke layer. Outputs of the numerical simulation of fire also enable to improve models of evacuation of people during fires in tunnels. In the presented study the calculated high of smoke layer in the tunnel is in 10 min after the fire ignition lower than the level of 2.2 m which is considered as the maximal limit for safe evacuation. Simulation of the evacuation process in bigger scale together with fire dynamics can provide very valuable information about important security conditions like Available Safe Evacuation Time (ASET) vs Required Safe Evacuation Time (RSET). On given example in software EXODUS the paper summarizes selected results of evacuation model which should be in mind of a designer when preparing an evacuation plan.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-01

The objective of this research is to develop alternative time-dependent travel demand models of hurricane evacuation travel and to compare the performance of these models with each other and with the state-of-the-practice models in current use. Speci...

Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

PubMed

Martín, Yago; Li, Zhenlong; Cutter, Susan L

2017-01-01

Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

Selfishness- and Selflessness-based models of pedestrian room evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiao; Ma, Liang; Ma, Yaofei; Yang, Chen; Ji, Hang

2016-04-01

Some pedestrian evacuation studies have employed game strategy to deal with moving conflicts involving two or three pedestrians. However, most of these have simply presented game strategies for pedestrians without analyzing the reasons why they choose to defect or cooperate. We believe that selfish and selfless behaviors are two main factors that should be considered in evacuation. In addition to these behaviors, human emotions such as sympathy and behaviors such as vying were also taken into account to investigate their impacts on pedestrians' strategies. Moreover, an essential objective factor, the building design factor of door width was tested and analyzed. Experimental results showed that the sense of self leads to more defectors and a longer evacuation time. However, sympathy does some good, leading to more cooperators and a shorter evacuation time. Moreover, the exit door width is an essential factor of the evacuation efficiency. When the width was less than 6 cells in a rectangular room with a size greater than 50 × 50, the evacuation time greatly decreased when the width increased. However, this effect was less obvious when the width increased.

Incorporating topography in a cellular automata model to simulate residents evacuation in a mountain area in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li; Liu, Mao; Meng, Bo

2013-02-01

In China, both the mountainous areas and the number of people who live in mountain areas occupy a significant proportion. When production accidents or natural disasters happen, the residents in mountain areas should be evacuated and the evacuation is of obvious importance to public safety. But it is a pity that there are few studies on safety evacuation in rough terrain. The particularity of the complex terrain in mountain areas, however, makes it difficult to study pedestrian evacuation. In this paper, a three-dimensional surface cellular automata model is proposed to numerically simulate the real time dynamic evacuation of residents. The model takes into account topographic characteristics (the slope gradient) of the environment and the biomechanics characteristics (weight and leg extensor power) of the residents to calculate the walking speed. This paper only focuses on the influence of topography and the physiological parameters are defined as constants according to a statistical report. Velocity varies with the topography. In order to simulate the behavior of a crowd with varying movement velocities, and a numerical algorithm is used to determine the time step of iteration. By doing so, a numerical simulation can be conducted in a 3D surface CA model. Moreover, considering residents evacuation around a gas well in a mountain area as a case, a visualization system for a three-dimensional simulation of pedestrian evacuation is developed. In the simulation process, population behaviors of congestion, queuing and collision avoidance can be observed. The simulation results are explained reasonably. Therefore, the model presented in this paper can realize a 3D dynamic simulation of pedestrian evacuation vividly in complex terrain and predict the evacuation procedure and evacuation time required, which can supply some valuable information for emergency management.

Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Priest, George R.; Stimely, Laura; Wood, Nathan J.; Madin, Ian; Watzig, Rudie

2016-01-01

Previous pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunamis has not considered variable wave arrival times or critical junctures (e.g., bridges), nor does it effectively communicate multiple evacuee travel speeds. We summarize an approach that identifies evacuation corridors, recognizes variable wave arrival times, and produces a map of minimum pedestrian travel speeds to reach safety, termed a “beat-the-wave” (BTW) evacuation analysis. We demonstrate the improved approach by evaluating difficulty of pedestrian evacuation of Seaside, Oregon, for a local tsunami generated by a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. We establish evacuation paths by calculating the least cost distance (LCD) to safety for every grid cell in a tsunami-hazard zone using geospatial, anisotropic path distance algorithms. Minimum BTW speed to safety on LCD paths is calculated for every grid cell by dividing surface distance from that cell to safety by the tsunami arrival time at safety. We evaluated three scenarios of evacuation difficulty: (1) all bridges are intact with a 5-minute evacuation delay from the start of earthquake, (2) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 5-minute delay, and (3) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 10-minute delay. BTW maps also take into account critical evacuation points along complex shorelines (e.g., peninsulas, bridges over shore-parallel estuaries) where evacuees could be caught by tsunami waves. The BTW map is able to communicate multiple pedestrian travel speeds, which are typically visualized by multiple maps with current LCD-based mapping practices. Results demonstrate that evacuation of Seaside is problematic seaward of the shore-parallel waterways for those with any limitations on mobility. Tsunami vertical-evacuation refuges or additional pedestrian bridges may be effective ways of reducing loss of life seaward of these waterways.

Post-nuclear disaster evacuation and survival amongst elderly people in Fukushima: A comparative analysis between evacuees and non-evacuees.

PubMed

Nomura, Shuhei; Blangiardo, Marta; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nishikawa, Yoshitaka; Gilmour, Stuart; Kami, Masahiro; Hodgson, Susan

2016-01-01

Considering the health impacts of evacuation is fundamental to disaster planning especially for vulnerable elderly populations; however, evacuation-related mortality risks have not been well-investigated. We conducted an analysis to compare survival of evacuated and non-evacuated residents of elderly care facilities, following the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant incident on 11th March 2011. To assess associations between evacuation and mortality after the Fukushima nuclear incident; and to present discussion points on disaster planning, with reference to vulnerable elderly populations. The study population comprised 1,215 residents admitted to seven elderly care facilities located 20-40km from the nuclear plant in the five years before the incident. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained from medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until mid 2013. Main outcome measures are hazard ratios in evacuees versus non-evacuees using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models, and pre- and post-disaster survival probabilities and relative mortality incidence. Experiencing the disasters did not have a significant influence on mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.43). Evacuation was associated with 1.82 times higher mortality (95% confidence interval: 1.22-2.70) after adjusting for confounders, with the initial evacuation from the original facility associated with 3.37 times higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.66-6.81) than non evacuation. The government should consider updating its requirements for emergency planning for elderly facilities and ensure that, in a disaster setting, these facilities have the capacity and support to shelter in place for at least sufficient time to adequately prepare initial evacuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew

PubMed Central

Martín, Yago; Cutter, Susan L.

2017-01-01

Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods—pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)—indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders. PMID:28753667

A Study on the Priority Selection of Sediment-related Desaster Evacuation Using Debris Flow Combination Degree of Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, C.; Kang, M.; Seo, J.; Kim, D.; Lee, C.

2017-12-01

As the mountainous urbanization has increased the concern about landslides in the living area, it is essential to develop the technology to minimize the damage through quick identification and sharing of the disaster occurrence information. In this study, to establish an effective system of alert evacuation that has influence on the residents, we used the debris flow combination degree of risk to predict the risk of the disaster and the level of damage and to select evacuation priorities. Based on the GIS information, the physical strength and social vulnerability were determined by following the debris flow combination of the risk formula. The results classify the physical strength hazard rating of the debris flow combination of the through the normalization process. Debris flow the estimated residential population included in the damage range of the damage prediction map is based on the area and the unit size data. Prediction of occupant formula was calculated by applying different weighting to the resident population and users, and the result was classified into 5 classes as the debris flow physical strength. The debris flow occurrence physical strength and social and psychological vulnerability were classified into the classifications to be reflected in the debris flow integrated risk map using the matrix technique. In addition, to supplement the risk of incorporation of debris flow, we added weight to disaster vulnerable facilities that require a lot of time and manpower to evacuate. The basic model of welfare facilities was supplemented by using basic data, population density, employment density and GDP. First, evacuate areas with high integrated degree of risk level, and evacuate with consideration of physical class differences if classification difficult because of the same or similar grade among the management areas. When the physical hazard class difference is similar, the population difference of the area including the welfare facility is considered first, and the priority is decided in order of age distribution, population density by period, and class difference of residential facility. The results of this study are expected be used as basic data for establishing a safety net for landslide by evacuation systems for disasters. Keyword: Landslide, Debris flow, Early warning system, evacuation

Demographic transition and factors associated with remaining in place after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and related evacuation orders.

PubMed

Morita, Tomohiro; Nomura, Shuhei; Furutani, Tomoyuki; Leppold, Claire; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Ozaki, Akihiko; Ochi, Sae; Kami, Masahiro; Kato, Shigeaki; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

2018-01-01

Demographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City-located 14-38 km north of the nuclear plant-in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas. We extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition. The overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people-11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64-1.85]) than women; among people aged 40-64 years (1.40 [1.24-1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09-1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50-1.94]) than among those who were not. Despite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events.

Effect of form of obstacle on speed of crowd evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, Ryosuke

2018-03-01

This paper investigates the effect of the form of an obstacle on the time that a crowd takes to evacuate a room, using a toy model. Pedestrians are modeled as active soft matter moving toward a point with intended velocities. An obstacle is placed in front of the exit, and it has one of four shapes: a cylindrical column, a triangular prism, a quadratic prism, or a diamond prism. Numerical results indicate that the evacuation-completion time depends on the shape of the obstacle. Obstacles with a circular cylinder (C.C.) shape yield the shortest evacuation-completion time in the proposed model.

Digestive tract evacuation in northern squawfish (Ptychocheilus oregonensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beyer, J.M.; Lucchetti, G.; Gray, G.

1988-01-01

Digestive tract evacuation in northern squawfish (Ptychocheilus oregonensis) (170–1900 g) was studied in fish allowed to feed voluntarily on salmon (4–70 g) at three water temperatures (10, 15, and 20 °C). Squawfish were sacrificed at 1- or 2-h intervals until evacuation approximated 90%. Amount of food evacuated for a given time interval increased approximately three times as the temperature was increased and as the prey weight was increased and two times as the predator weight was increased. The 90% emptying time (ET90) decreased by about two thirds as the temperature doubled and by about one half as the predator weight increased 10 times, but approximately doubled when the prey weight increased 4 times. Two-fish meals (17–20 g each, 35–39 g total) were evacuated more slowly than meals of one fish weighing 17–20 g, but at the same rate as meals of one fish weighing 35–40 g. Equations derived are easily applied to a wide range of water temperatures, prey weights, and predator weights.

The probability of lava inundation at the proposed and existing Kulani prison sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauahikaua, J.P.; Trusdell, F.A.; Heliker, C.C.

1998-01-01

The State of Hawai`i has proposed building a 2,300-bed medium-security prison about 10 km downslope from the existing Kulani medium-security correctional facility. The proposed and existing facilities lie on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa, which last erupted in 1984 in this same general area. We use the best available geologic mapping and dating with GIS software to estimate the average recurrence interval between lava flows that inundate these sites. Three different methods are used to adjust the number of flows exposed at the surface for those flows that are buried to allow a better representation of the recurrence interval. Probabilities are then computed, based on these recurrence intervals, assuming that the data match a Poisson distribution. The probability of lava inundation for the existing prison site is estimated to be 11- 12% in the next 50 years. The probability of lava inundation for the proposed sites B and C are 2- 3% and 1-2%, respectively, in the same period. The probabilities are based on estimated recurrence intervals for lava flows, which are approximately proportional to the area considered. The probability of having to evacuate the prison is certainly higher than the probability of lava entering the site. Maximum warning times between eruption and lava inundation of a site are estimated to be 24 hours for the existing prison site and 72 hours for proposed sites B and C. Evacuation plans should take these times into consideration.

Washington Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, T. J.; Schelling, J.

2012-12-01

Washington State has participated in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) since its inception in 1995. We have participated in the tsunami inundation hazard mapping, evacuation planning, education, and outreach efforts that generally characterize the NTHMP efforts. We have also investigated hazards of significant interest to the Pacific Northwest. The hazard from locally generated earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, which threatens tsunami inundation in less than hour following a magnitude 9 earthquake, creates special problems for low-lying accretionary shoreforms in Washington, such as the spits of Long Beach and Ocean Shores, where high ground is not accessible within the limited time available for evacuation. To ameliorate this problem, we convened a panel of the Applied Technology Council to develop guidelines for construction of facilities for vertical evacuation from tsunamis, published as FEMA 646, now incorporated in the International Building Code as Appendix M. We followed this with a program called Project Safe Haven (http://www.facebook.com/ProjectSafeHaven) to site such facilities along the Washington coast in appropriate locations and appropriate designs to blend with the local communities, as chosen by the citizens. This has now been completed for the entire outer coast of Washington. In conjunction with this effort, we have evaluated the potential for earthquake-induced ground failures in and near tsunami hazard zones to help develop cost estimates for these structures and to establish appropriate tsunami evacuation routes and evacuation assembly areas that are likely to to be available after a major subduction zone earthquake. We intend to continue these geotechnical evaluations for all tsunami hazard zones in Washington.

Unaccompanied evacuation and adult mortality: evaluating the finnish policy of evacuating children to foster care during World War II.

PubMed

Santavirta, Torsten

2014-09-01

I examined associations between evacuation of Finnish children to temporary foster care in Sweden during World War II and all-cause mortality between ages 38 and 78 years. I used a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate mortality risk according to whether the individual was evacuated during childhood or not. I used within-sibling analysis to control for all unobserved socioeconomic and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. Individual-level data for Finnish cohorts born in 1933 to 1944 were derived from wartime government records, Finnish census data from 1950 and 1970, and death cause registry from 1971 to 2011. I found no statistically significant association between evacuation and all-cause mortality when all exposed individuals were included in the analysis. However, subgroup analysis showed that men evacuated before age 4 years had a 1.31 higher mortality risk (95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.69) than their nonevacuated counterparts. In the aggregate, individuals do not have elevated mortality risk as a consequence of foster care during early childhood owing to the onset of sudden external shocks (e.g., wars).

Modeling operators' emergency response time for chemical processing operations.

PubMed

Murray, Susan L; Harputlu, Emrah; Mentzer, Ray A; Mannan, M Sam

2014-01-01

Operators have a crucial role during emergencies at a variety of facilities such as chemical processing plants. When an abnormality occurs in the production process, the operator often has limited time to either take corrective actions or evacuate before the situation becomes deadly. It is crucial that system designers and safety professionals can estimate the time required for a response before procedures and facilities are designed and operations are initiated. There are existing industrial engineering techniques to establish time standards for tasks performed at a normal working pace. However, it is reasonable to expect the time required to take action in emergency situations will be different than working at a normal production pace. It is possible that in an emergency, operators will act faster compared to a normal pace. It would be useful for system designers to be able to establish a time range for operators' response times for emergency situations. This article develops a modeling approach to estimate the time standard range for operators taking corrective actions or following evacuation procedures in emergency situations. This will aid engineers and managers in establishing time requirements for operators in emergency situations. The methodology used for this study combines a well-established industrial engineering technique for determining time requirements (predetermined time standard system) and adjustment coefficients for emergency situations developed by the authors. Numerous videos of workers performing well-established tasks at a maximum pace were studied. As an example, one of the tasks analyzed was pit crew workers changing tires as quickly as they could during a race. The operations in these videos were decomposed into basic, fundamental motions (such as walking, reaching for a tool, and bending over) by studying the videos frame by frame. A comparison analysis was then performed between the emergency pace and the normal working pace operations to determine performance coefficients. These coefficients represent the decrease in time required for various basic motions in emergency situations and were used to model an emergency response. This approach will make hazardous operations requiring operator response, alarm management, and evacuation processes easier to design and predict. An application of this methodology is included in the article. The time required for an emergency response was roughly a one-third faster than for a normal response time.

Integration of social vulnerability into emergency management plans: designing of evacuation routes against flood disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

Flash floods are highly spatio-temporal localized flood events characterized by reaching a high peak flow in a very short period of time, i.e., generally with times of concentration lower than six hours. Its short duration, which limits or even voids any warning time, means that flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk, either in terms of the number of people affected globally or the proportion of individual fatalities. The above highlights the importance of a realistic and appropriate design of evacuation strategies in order to reduce flood-related losses, being evacuation planning considered of critical importance for disaster management. Traditionally, evacuation maps have been based on flood-prone areas, shelters or emergency residences location and evacuation routes information. However, evacuation plans rarely consider the spatial distribution of vulnerable population (i.e., people with special needs, mobility constraints or economic difficulties), which usually require assistance from emergency responders. The goal of this research is to elaborate an evacuation map against the occurrence of flash floods by combining geographic information (e.g. roads, health facilities location, sanitary helicopters) and social vulnerability patterns, which are previously obtained from socioeconomic variables (e.g. population, unemployment, dwelling characteristics). To do this, ArcGis Network Analyst tool is used, which allows to calculate the optimal evacuation routes. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2). Urban areas prone to flash flooding are identified taking into account the following requirements: i) city centers are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1; ii) city centers are potentially affected by flash floods; and iii) city centers are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (i.e., 500-year flood). A total of 3 evacuation routes were designed and automatically traced for each of the 39 urban areas identified as interest, considering the nearest: i) health facility, ii) hospital; and iii) evacuation area (i.e. sports halls or any other). The suitable elaboration of evacuation plans is really important in small mountainous areas prone to flash flooding as they are managed by local organisms where available economic resources are often limited. Furthermore, the short response time obliges emergency responders to act efficiently, which requires the design of evacuation plans taking into account certain social characteristics for evacuation routes designing.

Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community…

Prototype Tsunami Evacuation Park in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, B. E.; Cedillos, V.; Deierlein, G.; Di Mauro, M.; Kornberg, K.

2012-12-01

Padang, Indonesia, a city of some 900,000 people, half of whom live close to the coast and within a five-meter elevation above sea level, has one of the highest tsunami risks in the world due to its close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, flat terrain and dense population. There is a high probability that a tsunami will strike the shores of Padang, flooding half of the area of the city, within the next 30 years. If that tsunami occurred today, it is estimated that several hundred thousand people would die, as they could not reach safe ground in the ~30 minute interval between the earthquake's occurrence and the tsunami's arrival. Padang's needs have been amply demonstrated: after earthquakes in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012, citizens, thinking that those earthquakes might cause a tsunami, tried to evacuate in cars and motorbikes, which created traffic jams, and most could not reach safe ground in 30 minutes. Since 2008, GeoHazards International (GHI) and Stanford University have studied a range of options for improving this situation, including ways to accelerate evacuation to high ground with pedestrian bridges and widened roads, and means of "vertical" evacuation in multi-story buildings, mosques, pedestrian overpasses, and Tsunami Evacuation Parks (TEPs), which are man-made hills with recreation facilities on top. TEPs proved most practical and cost-effective for Padang, given the available budget, technology and time. The Earth Observatory Singapore (EOS) developed an agent-based model that simulates pedestrian and vehicular evacuation to assess tsunami risk and risk reduction interventions in Southeast Asia. EOS applied this model to analyze the effectiveness in Padang of TEPs over other tsunami risk management approaches in terms of evacuation times and the number of people saved. The model shows that only ~24,000 people (20% of the total population) in the northern part of Padang can reach safe ground within 30 minutes, if people evacuate using cars and motorbikes immediately after the earthquake. If one TEP is built, ~46,000 could reach safe ground within 30 minutes, and if three were built ~72,000 could. GHI has acquired permission to build a prototype TEP in the northern part of Padang that would accommodate about 25,000 people during the time of a tsunami. This would cost about 4.7 million, amounting to a cost-per-life-saved of ~US200, far lower than the per capita cost of the other options. The cost of replication should be less. This interdisciplinary, international effort demonstrated that TEPs offer the best option for Padang because they have the potential to save thousands of lives, are relatively simple to build and maintain, invite everyday recreational use by the community, and have attracted strong Indonesian government support as a possible means to manage the country's tsunami risk.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : a mobile real-time traffic counter for monitoring hurricane evacuation traffic conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-01

In this research report, an investigation was conducted to identify a suitable traffic monitoring device for collecting traffic data during actual emergency evacuation conditions that may result from hurricanes in Louisiana. The study reviewed thorou...

Integrating supply and demand aspects of transportation for mass evacuation under disasters.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-15

This study seeks to address real-time operational needs in the context of the evacuation response problem by providing a capability to dynamically route vehicles under evacuation, thereby being responsive to the actual conditions unfolding in real-ti...

Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area : [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

When hurricanes threaten coastal cities, the most eff ective strategy to mitigate mortality is to evacuate the population : at risk. However, public offi cials face several transportation challenges when managing evacuations from a large city : like ...

Patient-driven resource planning of a health care facility evacuation.

PubMed

Petinaux, Bruno; Yadav, Kabir

2013-04-01

The evacuation of a health care facility is a complex undertaking, especially if done in an immediate fashion, ie, within minutes. Patient factors, such as continuous medical care needs, mobility, and comprehension, will affect the efficiency of the evacuation and translate into evacuation resource needs. Prior evacuation resource estimates are 30 years old. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey of charge nurses of the clinical units in an urban, academic, adult trauma health care facility (HCF), the evacuation needs of hospitalized patients were assessed periodically over a two-year period. Survey data were collected on 2,050 patients. Units with patients having low continuous medical care needs during an emergency evacuation were the postpartum, psychiatry, rehabilitation medicine, surgical, and preoperative anesthesia care units, the Emergency Department, and Labor and Delivery Department (with the exception of patients in Stage II labor). Units with patients having high continuous medical care needs during an evacuation included the neonatal and adult intensive care units, special procedures unit, and operating and post-anesthesia care units. With the exception of the neonate group, 908 (47%) of the patients would be able to walk out of the facility, 492 (25.5%) would require a wheelchair, and 530 (27.5%) would require a stretcher to exit the HCF. A total of 1,639 patients (84.9%) were deemed able to comprehend the need to evacuate and to follow directions; the remainder were sedated, blind, or deaf. The charge nurses also determined that 17 (6.9%) of the 248 adult intensive care unit patients were too ill to survive an evacuation, and that in 10 (16.4%) of the 61 ongoing surgery cases, stopping the case was not considered to be safe. Heath care facilities can utilize the results of this study to model their anticipated resource requirements for an emergency evacuation. This will permit the Incident Management Team to mobilize the necessary resources both within the facility and the community to provide for the safest evacuation of patients.

Experiment and modeling of paired effect on evacuation from a three-dimensional space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Hu; Huijun, Sun; Juan, Wei; Xiaodan, Chen; Lei, You; Musong, Gu

2014-10-01

A novel three-dimensional cellular automata evacuation model was proposed based on stairs factor for paired effect and variety velocities in pedestrian evacuation. In the model pedestrians' moving probability of target position at the next moment was defined based on distance profit and repulsive force profit, and evacuation strategy was elaborated in detail through analyzing variety velocities and repulsive phenomenon in moving process. At last, experiments with the simulation platform were conducted to study the relationships of evacuation time, average velocity and pedestrian velocity. The results showed that when the ratio of single pedestrian was higher in the system, the shortest route strategy was good for improving evacuation efficiency; in turn, if ratio of paired pedestrians was higher, it is good for improving evacuation efficiency to adopt strategy that avoided conflicts, and priority should be given to scattered evacuation.

Use of frequency analysis and the extended streamflow prediction procedure to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool of Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Nickless, R.C.

1994-01-01

Part of the storage space of Pueblo Reservoir consists of a 65,950 acre-foot joint-use pool (JUP) that can be used to provide additional conservation capacity from November 1 to April 14; however, the JUP must be evacuated by April 15 and used only for flood-control capacity until November 1. A study was completed to determine if the JUP possibly could be used for conservation storage for any number of days from April 15 through May 14 under certain hydrologic conditions. The methods of the study were: (1) Frequency analysis of recorded daily mean discharge data for streamflow-gaging stations upstream and downstream from Pueblo Reservoir, and (2) Implementation of the extended streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure for the Arkansas River basin upstream from the reservoir. The frequency analyses enabled estimation of daily discharges at selected exceedance probabilities (EP's), including the 0.01 EP that was used in design of the flood- storage capacity of Pueblo Reservoir. The ESP procedure enabled probabilistic forecasts of inflow volume to the reservoir for April 15 through May 14. Daily discharges derived from the frequency analyses were routed through Pueblo Reservoir to estimate evacuation dates of the JUP for different reservoir inflow volumes; the estimates indicated a relation between the inflow volume and the JUP evacuation date. To apply the study results, only a ESP forecast of the April 15-May 14 reservoir inflow volume is needed. Study results indicate the JUP possibly could be used as late as May 5 depending on the forecast inflow volume.

NUclear EVacuation Analysis Code (NUEVAC) : a tool for evaluation of sheltering and evacuation responses following urban nuclear detonations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

2009-11-01

The NUclear EVacuation Analysis Code (NUEVAC) has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories to support the analysis of shelter-evacuate (S-E) strategies following an urban nuclear detonation. This tool can model a range of behaviors, including complex evacuation timing and path selection, as well as various sheltering or mixed evacuation and sheltering strategies. The calculations are based on externally generated, high resolution fallout deposition and plume data. Scenario setup and calculation outputs make extensive use of graphics and interactive features. This software is designed primarily to produce quantitative evaluations of nuclear detonation response options. However, the outputs have also proven usefulmore » in the communication of technical insights concerning shelter-evacuate tradeoffs to urban planning or response personnel.« less

Acute respiratory symptoms and evacuation-related behavior after exposure to chlorine gas leakage.

PubMed

Han, Sung-Woo; Choi, Won-Jun; Yi, Min-Kee; Song, Seng-Ho; Lee, Dong-Hoon; Han, Sang-Hwan

2016-01-01

A study was performed on the accidental chlorine gas leakage that occurred in a factory of printed circuit boards manufactured without chlorine. Health examination was performed for all 52 workers suspected of exposure to chlorine gas, and their evacuation-related behaviors were observed in addition to analyzing the factors that affected the duration of their acute respiratory symptoms. Behavioral characteristics during the incidence of the accidental chlorine gas leakage, the estimated time of exposure, and the duration of subjective acute respiratory symptoms were investigated. In addition, clinical examination, chest radiography, and dental erosion test were performed. As variables that affected the duration of respiratory symptoms, dose group, body weight, age, sex, smoking, work period, and wearing a protective gear were included and analyzed by using the Cox proportional hazard model. Of 47 workers exposed to chlorine gas, 36 (77 %) developed more than one subjective symptom. The duration of the subjective symptoms according to exposure level significantly differed, with a median of 1 day (range, 0-5 days) in the low-exposure group and 2 days (range, 0-25 days) in the high-exposure group. Among the variables that affected the duration of the acute respiratory symptoms, which were analyzed by using the Cox proportional hazard model, only exposure level was significant (hazard ratio 2.087, 95 % CI = 1.119, 3.890). Regarding the evacuation-related behaviors, 22 workers (47 %) voluntarily evacuated to a safety zone immediately after recognizing the accidental exposure, but 25 workers (43 %) delayed evacuation until the start of mandatory evacuation (min 5, max 25 min). The duration of the subjective acute respiratory symptoms significantly differed between the low- and high-exposure groups. Among the 27 workers in the high-exposure group, 17 misjudged the toxicity after being aware of the gas leakage, which is a relatively high number.

Demographic transition and factors associated with remaining in place after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and related evacuation orders

PubMed Central

Nomura, Shuhei; Furutani, Tomoyuki; Leppold, Claire; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Ozaki, Akihiko; Ochi, Sae; Kami, Masahiro; Kato, Shigeaki; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

2018-01-01

Introduction Demographic changes as a result of evacuation in the acute phase of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster are not well evaluated. We estimated post-disaster demographic transitions in Minamisoma City—located 14–38 km north of the nuclear plant—in the first month of the disaster; and identified demographic factors associated with the population remaining in the affected areas. Materials and methods We extracted data from the evacuation behavior survey administered to participants in the city between July 11, 2011 and April 30, 2013. Using mathematical models, we estimated the total population in the city after the disaster according to sex, age group, and administrative divisions of the city. To investigate factors associated with the population remaining in place after the disaster, a probit regression model was employed, taking into account sex, age, pre-disaster dwelling area, and household composition. Results The overall population decline in Minamisoma City peaked 11 days after the disaster, when the population reached 7,107 people—11% of the pre-disaster level. The remaining population levels differed by area: 1.1% for mandatory evacuation zone, 12.5% for indoor sheltering zone, and 12.6% for other areas of the city. Based on multiple regression analyses, higher odds for remaining in place were observed among men (odds ratio 1.72 [95% confidence intervals 1.64–1.85]) than women; among people aged 40–64 years (1.40 [1.24–1.58]) than those aged 75 years or older; and among those living with the elderly, aged 70 years or older (1.18 [1.09–1.27]) or those living alone (1.71 [1.50–1.94]) than among those who were not. Discussion Despite the evacuation order, some residents of mandatory evacuation zones remained in place, signaling the need for preparation to respond to their post-disaster needs. Indoor sheltering instructions may have accelerated voluntary evacuation, and this demonstrates the need for preventing potentially disorganized evacuation in future nuclear events. PMID:29538442

External factors impacting hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: the role of situational awareness.

PubMed

Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

2013-06-01

The 2005 Gulf Coast hurricane season was one of the most costly and deadly in US history. Hurricane Rita stressed hospitals and led to multiple, simultaneous evacuations. This study systematically identified community factors associated with patient movement out of seven hospitals evacuated during Hurricane Rita. This study represents the second of two systematic, observational, and retrospective investigations of seven acute care hospitals that reported off-site evacuations due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included decision makers that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). Investigators applied a standardized interview process designed to assess evacuation factors related to external situational awareness of community activities during facility evacuation due to hurricanes. The measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions within six sections of the survey instrument. Investigators identified two factors that significantly impacted hospital IMT decision making: (1) incident characteristics affecting a facility's internal resources and challenges; and (2) incident characteristics affecting a facility's external evacuation activities. This article summarizes the latter and reports the following critical decision making points: (1) Emergency Operations Plans (EOP) were activated an average of 85 hours (3 days, 13 hours) prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall; (2) the decision to evacuate the hospital was made an average of 30 hours (1 day, 6 hours) from activation of the EOP; and (3) the implementation of the evacuation process took an average of 22 hours. Coordination of patient evacuations was most complicated by transportation deficits (the most significant of the 11 identified problem areas) and a lack of situational awareness of community response activities. All evacuation activities and subsequent evacuation times were negatively impacted by an overall lack of understanding on the part of hospital staff and the IMT regarding how to identify and coordinate with community resources. Hospital evacuation requires coordinated processes and resources, including situational awareness that reflects the condition of the community as a result of the incident. Successful hospital evacuation decision making is influenced by community-wide situational awareness and transportation deficits. Planning with the community to create realistic EOPs that accurately reflect available resources and protocols is critical to informing hospital decision making during a crisis. Knowledge of these factors could improve decision making and evacuation practices, potentially reducing evacuation times in future hurricanes.

Study on Earthquake Emergency Evacuation Drill Trainer Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ChangJiang, L.

2016-12-01

With the improvement of China's urbanization, to ensure people survive the earthquake needs scientific routine emergency evacuation drills. Drawing on cellular automaton, shortest path algorithm and collision avoidance, we designed a model of earthquake emergency evacuation drill for school scenes. Based on this model, we made simulation software for earthquake emergency evacuation drill. The software is able to perform the simulation of earthquake emergency evacuation drill by building spatial structural model and selecting the information of people's location grounds on actual conditions of constructions. Based on the data of simulation, we can operate drilling in the same building. RFID technology could be used here for drill data collection which read personal information and send it to the evacuation simulation software via WIFI. Then the simulation software would contrast simulative data with the information of actual evacuation process, such as evacuation time, evacuation path, congestion nodes and so on. In the end, it would provide a contrastive analysis report to report assessment result and optimum proposal. We hope the earthquake emergency evacuation drill software and trainer can provide overall process disposal concept for earthquake emergency evacuation drill in assembly occupancies. The trainer can make the earthquake emergency evacuation more orderly, efficient, reasonable and scientific to fulfill the increase in coping capacity of urban hazard.

Information technologies for Marine Corps combat medicine.

PubMed

Carey, N B; Rattelman, C R; Nguyen, H Q

1998-09-01

Future Marine Corps warfighting concepts will make it more difficult to locate casualties, which will complicate casualty evacuation, lengthen casualty wait times, and require infantrymen or corpsmen to provide more extensive treatment. In these future scenarios, information flow and communications will be critical to medical functions. We asked, for Navy medical support to the Marines, what information will future combat medicine require and what technologies should supply those information needs? Based on analyses of patient data streams, focus groups of Navy medical personnel, and our estimates of the cost and feasibility of communications systems, we recommend the following: (1) increase medical training for some fraction of Marines, especially in hemorrhage control; (2) augment corpsmen's training; (3) furnish data systems for evacuation and supply that would provide in-transit visibility and simplify requests; (4) provide all ground medical personnel with access to treatment information systems and limited voice communications; and (5) exploit e-mail systems to reduce reliance on voice communications. Implementation time frames are discussed.

Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

2017-08-01

Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

Estimation of gastric emptying time (GET) in clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris) using X-radiography technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Khoo Mei; Ghaffar, Mazlan Abd.

2014-09-01

This study examines the movement of food item and the estimation of gastric emptying time using the X-radiography techniques, in the clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris) fed in captivity. Fishes were voluntarily fed to satiation after being deprived of food for 72 hours, using pellets that were tampered with barium sulphate (BaSO4). The movement of food item was monitored over different time of feeding. As a result, a total of 36 hours were needed for the food items to be evacuated completely from the stomach. Results on the modeling of meal satiation were also discussed. The size of satiation meal to body weight relationship was allometric, with the power value equal to 1.28.

Estimation of gastric emptying time (GET) in clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris) using X-radiography technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ling, Khoo Mei; Ghaffar, Mazlan Abd.

2014-09-03

This study examines the movement of food item and the estimation of gastric emptying time using the X-radiography techniques, in the clownfish (Amphiprion ocellaris) fed in captivity. Fishes were voluntarily fed to satiation after being deprived of food for 72 hours, using pellets that were tampered with barium sulphate (BaSO{sub 4}). The movement of food item was monitored over different time of feeding. As a result, a total of 36 hours were needed for the food items to be evacuated completely from the stomach. Results on the modeling of meal satiation were also discussed. The size of satiation meal tomore » body weight relationship was allometric, with the power value equal to 1.28.« less

Improvement of real-time seismic magnitude estimation by combining seismic and geodetic instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

2017-12-01

Rapid seismic magnitude assessment is a top priority for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. For the largest earthquakes, seismic instrumentation tends to underestimate the magnitude, leading to an insufficient early warning, particularly in the case of tsunami evacuation orders. GPS instrumentation provides more accurate magnitude estimations using near-field stations, but isn't sensitive enough to detect the first seismic wave arrivals, thereby limiting solution speed. By optimally combining collocated seismic and GPS instruments, we demonstrate improved solution speed of earthquake magnitude for the largest seismic events. We present a real-time implementation of magnitude-scaling relations that adapts to consider the length of the recording, reflecting the observed evolution of ground motion with time.

Impacts of high resolution data on traveler compliance levels in emergency evacuation simulations

DOE PAGES

Lu, Wei; Han, Lee D.; Liu, Cheng; ...

2016-05-05

In this article, we conducted a comparison study of evacuation assignment based on Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) and high resolution LandScan USA Population Cells (LPC) with detailed real world roads network. A platform for evacuation modeling built on high resolution population distribution data and activity-based microscopic traffic simulation was proposed. This platform can be extended to any cities in the world. The results indicated that evacuee compliance behavior affects evacuation efficiency with traditional TAZ assignment, but it did not significantly compromise the performance with high resolution LPC assignment. The TAZ assignment also underestimated the real travel time during evacuation. Thismore » suggests that high data resolution can improve the accuracy of traffic modeling and simulation. The evacuation manager should consider more diverse assignment during emergency evacuation to avoid congestions.« less

Quantitative comparison between crowd models for evacuation planning and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanathan, Vaisagh; Lee, Chong Eu; Lees, Michael Harold; Cheong, Siew Ann; Sloot, Peter M. A.

2014-02-01

Crowd simulation is rapidly becoming a standard tool for evacuation planning and evaluation. However, the many crowd models in the literature are structurally different, and few have been rigorously calibrated against real-world egress data, especially in emergency situations. In this paper we describe a procedure to quantitatively compare different crowd models or between models and real-world data. We simulated three models: (1) the lattice gas model, (2) the social force model, and (3) the RVO2 model, and obtained the distributions of six observables: (1) evacuation time, (2) zoned evacuation time, (3) passage density, (4) total distance traveled, (5) inconvenience, and (6) flow rate. We then used the DISTATIS procedure to compute the compromise matrix of statistical distances between the three models. Projecting the three models onto the first two principal components of the compromise matrix, we find the lattice gas and RVO2 models are similar in terms of the evacuation time, passage density, and flow rates, whereas the social force and RVO2 models are similar in terms of the total distance traveled. Most importantly, we find that the zoned evacuation times of the three models to be very different from each other. Thus we propose to use this variable, if it can be measured, as the key test between different models, and also between models and the real world. Finally, we compared the model flow rates against the flow rate of an emergency evacuation during the May 2008 Sichuan earthquake, and found the social force model agrees best with this real data.

A Time-Aware Routing Map for Indoor Evacuation †

PubMed Central

Zhao, Haifeng; Winter, Stephan

2016-01-01

Knowledge of dynamic environments expires over time. Thus, using static maps of the environment for decision making is problematic, especially in emergency situations, such as evacuations. This paper suggests a fading memory model for mapping dynamic environments: a mechanism to put less trust on older knowledge in decision making. The model has been assessed by simulating indoor evacuations, adopting and comparing various strategies in decision making. Results suggest that fading memory generally improves this decision making. PMID:26797610

Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, Marcus; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Wiemer, Stefan

2014-05-01

When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with the situation. The 2009 L'Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost-benefit analysis adds value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast the short-term seismic risk at any time-and with sufficient data anywhere-is the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk awareness among the public. Reference Van Stiphout, T., S. Wiemer, and W. Marzocchi (2010). 'Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake'. In: Geophysical Research Letters 37.6, pp. 1-5. url: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/ 2009GL042352/abstract.

An extended cost potential field cellular automata model considering behavior variation of pedestrian flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Fang; Li, Xingli; Kuang, Hua; Bai, Yang; Zhou, Huaguo

2016-11-01

The original cost potential field cellular automata describing normal pedestrian evacuation is extended to study more general evacuation scenarios. Based on the cost potential field function, through considering the psychological characteristics of crowd under emergencies, the quantitative formula of behavior variation is introduced to reflect behavioral changes caused by psychology tension. The numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effects of the magnitude of behavior variation, the different pedestrian proportions with different behavior variation and other factors on the evacuation efficiency and process in a room. The spatiotemporal dynamic characteristic during the evacuation process is also discussed. The results show that compared with the normal evacuation, the behavior variation under an emergency does not necessarily lead to the decrease of the evacuation efficiency. At low density, the increase of the behavior variation can improve the evacuation efficiency, while at high density, the evacuation efficiency drops significantly with the increasing amplitude of the behavior variation. In addition, the larger proportion of pedestrian affected by the behavior variation will prolong the evacuation time.

Ultra-Scale Computing for Emergency Evacuation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Nutaro, James J; Liu, Cheng

2010-01-01

Emergency evacuations are carried out in anticipation of a disaster such as hurricane landfall or flooding, and in response to a disaster that strikes without a warning. Existing emergency evacuation modeling and simulation tools are primarily designed for evacuation planning and are of limited value in operational support for real time evacuation management. In order to align with desktop computing, these models reduce the data and computational complexities through simple approximations and representations of real network conditions and traffic behaviors, which rarely represent real-world scenarios. With the emergence of high resolution physiographic, demographic, and socioeconomic data and supercomputing platforms, itmore » is possible to develop micro-simulation based emergency evacuation models that can foster development of novel algorithms for human behavior and traffic assignments, and can simulate evacuation of millions of people over a large geographic area. However, such advances in evacuation modeling and simulations demand computational capacity beyond the desktop scales and can be supported by high performance computing platforms. This paper explores the motivation and feasibility of ultra-scale computing for increasing the speed of high resolution emergency evacuation simulations.« less

Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

2013-01-01

The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city and county beaches, State or national parks, and amusement parks). Evacuations will be challenging, particularly for certain dependent-care populations, such as patients at hospitals and children at schools and daycare centers. We estimate that approximately 8,678 of the 91,956 residents in the scenario inundation zone are likely to need publicly provided shelters in the short term. Information presented in this report could be used to support emergency managers in their efforts to identify where additional preparedness and outreach activities may be needed to manage risks associated with California tsunamis.

Aero-medical evacuation from the second Israel-Lebanon war: a descriptive study.

PubMed

Schwartz, Dagan; Resheff, Avram; Geftler, Alex; Weiss, Aviram; Birenbaum, Erez; Lavon, Ophir

2009-05-01

The second Lebanon war started as a limited operation and progressed to a large-scale campaign. Most of the fighting took place in mountainous villages and small towns inhabited with civilians. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Airborne rescue and evacuation unit is charged with air evacuation of soldiers and civilians in times of peace, limited conflict, and war. We describe this unit's activities in the second Lebanon war, analyzing injury, treatment, and evacuation characteristics Data were collected from flight medical reports, debriefings of aero-medical team members (usually immediately upon return from mission), ground units medical reports and debriefings, and hospital records. 725 IDF soldiers were injured and 117 killed either in Lebanon or near the Israeli-Lebanese border during the war. A total of 338 (46%) were evacuated in 95 airlifts (averaging 4.5 evacuees per airlift) from the fighting zones or the border. Air evacuation used dedicated helicopters with advanced care capacities, and most victims were evacuated straight from the battlefield, as the fighting was ensuing. Many wounded first received advanced medical care upon the arrival of the aero-medical teams. In military operations within civilian populated areas with threats to ground transport, air evacuation can sometimes be the only readily available option. Providing timely ground advanced medical care proved difficult in many instances. Thus, for many, the rescue helicopter was the first point of access to such care. Aero-medical aircrafts and personnel faced threats from gunfire and missiles, causing both delays in evacuation and a high average number of evacuees per airlift. This article proposes ways of coping with situations in which similar rescue and evacuation problems are likely.

Unsuitability of evacuated tubes for monitoring heparin therapy by activated partial thromboplastin time.

PubMed Central

Heyns, A D; van den Berg, D J; Kleynhans, P H; du Toit, P W

1981-01-01

Activated partial thromboplastin times (APTT) for monitoring heparin therapy for venous thromboembolism tended to be inappropriately short if blood was collected in commercially available evacuated glass tubes. Five types of evacuated tubes marketed under the trade names Vacutainer and Venoject were examined. The APTT of heparinized blood collected in these tubes correlated poorly (r = 0.04 to 4 = 0.25) with that of blood samples from the same patients collected in plastic tubes. Most of the evacuated tube APTT were shorter than that of blood collected in plastic or siliconised glass tubes, but the results were unpredictable and varied from tube to tube and from batch to batch. This effect on heparin is apparently due to an unidentified substances which is eluted from the rubber stoppers of the tubes. Heparin control according to the APTT blood collected in these evacuated tubes is hazardous. PMID:7462439

Developing a database for pedestrians' earthquake emergency evacuation in indoor scenarios.

PubMed

Zhou, Junxue; Li, Sha; Nie, Gaozhong; Fan, Xiwei; Tan, Jinxian; Li, Huayue; Pang, Xiaoke

2018-01-01

With the booming development of evacuation simulation software, developing an extensive database in indoor scenarios for evacuation models is imperative. In this paper, we conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the collected videotapes and aim to provide a complete and unitary database of pedestrians' earthquake emergency response behaviors in indoor scenarios, including human-environment interactions. Using the qualitative analysis method, we extract keyword groups and keywords that code the response modes of pedestrians and construct a general decision flowchart using chronological organization. Using the quantitative analysis method, we analyze data on the delay time, evacuation speed, evacuation route and emergency exit choices. Furthermore, we study the effect of classroom layout on emergency evacuation. The database for indoor scenarios provides reliable input parameters and allows the construction of real and effective constraints for use in software and mathematical models. The database can also be used to validate the accuracy of evacuation models.

Global Optimization of Emergency Evacuation Assignments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Lee; Yuan, Fang; Chin, Shih-Miao

2006-01-01

Conventional emergency evacuation plans often assign evacuees to fixed routes or destinations based mainly on geographic proximity. Such approaches can be inefficient if the roads are congested, blocked, or otherwise dangerous because of the emergency. By not constraining evacuees to prespecified destinations, a one-destination evacuation approach provides flexibility in the optimization process. We present a framework for the simultaneous optimization of evacuation-traffic distribution and assignment. Based on the one-destination evacuation concept, we can obtain the optimal destination and route assignment by solving a one-destination traffic-assignment problem on a modified network representation. In a county-wide, large-scale evacuation case study, the one-destinationmore » model yields substantial improvement over the conventional approach, with the overall evacuation time reduced by more than 60 percent. More importantly, emergency planners can easily implement this framework by instructing evacuees to go to destinations that the one-destination optimization process selects.« less

Behavioral effects in room evacuation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dossetti, V.; Bouzat, S.; Kuperman, M. N.

2017-08-01

In this work we study a model for the evacuation of pedestrians from an enclosure considering a continuous space substrate and discrete time. We analyze the influence of behavioral features that affect the use of the empty space, that can be linked to the attitudes or characters of the pedestrians. We study how the interaction of different behavioral profiles affects the needed time to evacuate completely a room and the occurrence of clogging. We find that neither fully egotistic nor fully cooperative attitudes are optimal from the point of view of the crowd. In contrast, intermediate behaviors provide lower evacuation times. This leads us to identify some phenomena closely analogous to the faster-is-slower effect. The proposed model allows for distinguishing between the role of the attitudes in the search for empty space and the attitudes in the conflicts.

Journal of Special Operations Medicine, Volume 7, Edition 4. Training Supplement: Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

fatigued. The majority of the OIL and TTP listed here are oriented to the Level I management of combat CAX or management at the point of injury (POI) or...carried into the field by medical personnel. Time to evacuation from the POI or other casualty evacuation point (CEP) to an MTF may vary considerably...must be avoided during this time. Care must be rendered once the mission has reached an anticipated evacuation point , without pursuit, awaiting CASEVAC

The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast is provided.

A method for defining down-wind evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving toxic propellant spills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siewert, R. D.

1972-01-01

Evacuation areas for accidental spills of toxic propellants along rail and highway shipping routes are defined to help local authorities reduce risks to people from excessive vapor concentrations. These criteria along with other emergency information are shown in propellant spill cards. The evacuation areas are based on current best estimates of propellant evaporation rates from various areas of spill puddles. These rates are used together with a continuous point-source, bi-normal model of plume dispersion. The rate at which the toxic plume disperses is based on a neutral atmospheric condition. This condition, which results in slow plume dispersion, represents the widest range of weather parameters which could occur during the day and nighttime periods. Evacuation areas are defined by the ground level boundaries of the plume within which the concentrations exceed the toxic Threshold Limit Value (TLV) or in some cases the Emergency Exposure Limit (EEL).

Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

Revealed preference is the traditional method to collect hurricane evacuation behavior data. However, revealed preference surveys, as they are currently administered, have the disadvantage that they are unable to collect time-sensitive and policy-sen...

Necessity of guides in pedestrian emergency evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoxia; Dong, Hairong; Yao, Xiuming; Sun, Xubin; Wang, Qianling; Zhou, Min

2016-01-01

The role of guide who is in charge of leading pedestrians to evacuate in the case of emergency plays a critical role for the uninformed people. This paper first investigates the influence of mass behavior on evacuation dynamics and mainly focuses on the guided evacuation dynamics. In the extended crowd model proposed in this paper, individualistic behavior, herding behavior and environment influence are all considered for pedestrians who are not informed by the guide. According to the simulation results, herding behavior makes more pedestrians evacuate from the room in the same period of time. Besides, guided crowd demonstrates the same behavior of group dynamics which is characterized by gathering, conflicts and balance. Moreover, simulation results indicate guides with appropriate initial positions and quantity are more conducive to evacuation under a moderate initial density of pedestrians.

Deaths, injuries, and evacuations from acute hazardous materials releases.

PubMed Central

Binder, S

1989-01-01

We examined reports from three surveillance systems of 587 acute releases of hazardous materials in 1986. These releases resulted in at least 115 deaths, 2,254 injuries, and 111 evacuations. Only eight (1 percent) of the 587 events were common to all three systems. Estimates of the public health consequences of hazardous materials releases could be improved by enforcing existing laws, modifying report forms, and validating collected information. PMID:2751024

Implementation Of Haversine Formula And Best First Search Method In Searching Of Tsunami Evacuation Route

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisya; Yoga Swara, Ganda

2017-12-01

Padang is one of the cities prone to earthquake disaster with tsunami due to its position at the meeting of two active plates, this is, a source of potentially powerful earthquake and tsunami. Central government and most offices are located in the red zone (vulnerable areas), it will also affect the evacuation of the population during the earthquake and tsunami disaster. In this study, researchers produced a system of search nearest shelter using best-first-search method. This method uses the heuristic function, the amount of cost taken and the estimated value or travel time, path length and population density. To calculate the length of the path, researchers used method of haversine formula. The value obtained from the calculation process is implemented on a web-based system. Some alternative paths and some of the closest shelters will be displayed in the system.

A materials test system for static compression at elevated temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korellis, J. S.; Steinhaus, C. A.; Totten, J. J.

1992-06-01

This report documents modifications to our existing computer-controlled compression testing system to allow elevated temperature testing in an evacuated environment. We have adopted an 'inverse' design configuration where the evacuated test volume is located within the induction heating coil, eliminating the expense and minimizing the evacuation time of a much larger traditional vacuum chamber.

Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Gordon, Leslie C.

2015-01-01

Maps of travel time can be used by emergency managers and community planners to identify where to focus evacuation training and tsunami education. The tool can also be used to examine the potential benefits of vertical-evacuation structures, which are buildings or berms designed to provide a local high ground in low-lying areas of the hazard zone. 

Proctographic features of anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Bartram, C I; Park, H J; Kamm, M A

1995-12-01

To document the proctographic features of anismus at evacuation proctography and determine the optimum radiologic measurements for diagnosis. Twenty-four patients with anismus according to clinical and multiple physiologic criteria were examined with evacuation proctography. Structural and functional measurements were compared with those of a group of 20 asymptomatic subjects. No significant difference between patients and control subjects was found with respect to pelvic descent, rectocele, or any anorectal angle measurement. In patients with anismus, initiation of evacuation was prolonged (median, 9 vs 3 seconds for control subjects; P < .0001) and anal canal width was reduced (median, 0.6 vs 1.2 cm; P = .0075). Evacuation time was increased (median, 50 vs 10 seconds; P < .0001), and the percentage of contrast material evacuated was decreased (median, 60% vs 100%; P < .0001). Only four patients were able to evacuate more than 66% of the contrast material within 30 seconds, whereas all control subjects were able to do so. Measurement of the anorectal angle to diagnose anismus should be abandoned. Patients with anismus demonstrate delayed initiation of evacuation, which is also prolonged and incomplete. Incomplete evacuation after 30 seconds is highly suggestive of anismus.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franzese, Oscar; Zhang, Li; Mahmoud, Anas M.

There are many instances in which it is possible to plan ahead for an emergency evacuation (e.g., an explosion at a chemical processing facility). For those cases, if an accident (or an attack) were to happen, then the best evacuation plan for the prevailing network and weather conditions would be deployed. In other cases (e.g., the derailment of a train transporting hazardous materials), there may not be any previously developed plan to be implemented and decisions must be made ad-hoc on how to proceed with an emergency evacuation. In both situations, the availability of real-time traffic information plays a criticalmore » role in the management of the evacuation operations. To improve public safety during a vehicular emergency evacuation it is necessary to detect losses of road capacity (due to incidents, for example) as early as possible. Once these bottlenecks are identified, re-routing strategies must be determined in real-time and deployed in the field to help dissipate the congestion and increase the efficiency of the evacuation. Due to cost constraints, only large urban areas have traffic sensor deployments that permit access to some sort of real-time traffic information; any evacuation taking place in any other areas of the country would have to proceed without real-time traffic information. The latter was the focus of this SERRI/DHS (Southeast Region Research Initiative/Department of Homeland Security) sponsored project. That is, the main objective on the project was to improve the operations during a vehicular emergency evacuation anywhere by using newly developed real-time traffic-information-gathering technologies to assess traffic conditions and therefore to potentially detect incidents on the main evacuation routes. Phase A of the project consisted in the development and testing of a prototype system composed of sensors that are engineered in such a way that they can be rapidly deployed in the field where and when they are needed. Each one of these sensors is also equipped with their own power supply and a GPS (Global Positioning System) device to auto-determine its spatial location on the transportation network under surveillance. The system is capable of assessing traffic parameters by identifying and re-identifying vehicles in the traffic stream as those vehicles pass over the sensors. The system of sensors transmits, through wireless communication, real-time traffic information (travel time and other parameters) to a command and control center via an NTCIP (National Transportation Communication for ITS Protocol) -compatible interface. As an alternative, an existing NTCIP-compatible system accepts the real-time traffic information mentioned and broadcasts the traffic information to emergency managers, the media and the public via the existing channels. A series of tests, both in a controlled environment and on the field, were conducted to study the feasibility of rapidly deploying the system of traffic sensors and to assess its ability to provide real-time traffic information during an emergency evacuation. The results of these tests indicated that the prototype sensors are reliable and accurate for the type of application that is the focus of this project.« less

Spatial and temporal variation in evacuee risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

PubMed

Siebeneck, Laura K; Cova, Thomas J

2012-09-01

Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

2017-11-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

2017-12-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Surveys of Food Intake Just after the Nuclear Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

PubMed

Hirakawa, Sachiko; Yoshizawa, Nobuaki; Murakami, Kana; Takizawa, Mari; Kawai, Masaki; Sato, Osamu; Takagi, Shunji; Suzuki, Gen

2017-01-01

As a result of the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station (FDNPS) after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, volatile radionuclides including iodine-131 were released into the environment and contaminated open-field vegetables, raw milk, tap water, etc. It is important for the health care of residents to correctly comprehend the level of their exposure to radioactive substances released following the accident. However, an evaluation of the internal exposure doses of residents of Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the ingestion of foods, which is indicated in the report issued by United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR)1 is based on a number of assumptions. For instance, the estimation assumes that foods were ingested as usual, without regard to the places to which residents were evacuated after the accident, the places where food shipment restrictions were imposed, and so forth. The present report aims to improve the accuracy of estimation of the amount of food actually ingested at evacuation areas, in order to reduce as much as possible the level of uncertainty in conventional values estimated directly after the accident, which were in fact values based on conservative assumptions. More concretely, as basic source material to more accurately estimate internal exposure doses from food ingestion, various patterns of evacuation and dietary habits at the time of the accident of the residents of 13 municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture who were evacuated during the period from directly after the accident of March 11, 2011 until the end of March are clarified in this report. From survey results, most of the food that evacuees took immediately after the accident was confirmed to have been sourced from either stockpiles prepared before the accident, or relief supplies from outside of the affected areas. The restriction orders of food supplies such as contaminated vegetables and milk, and tap water intake were implemented within several days after the major release of radionuclides on March 15, 2011. In addition, collapse in supply chains, i.e., damage to distribution facilities, lack of transportation vehicles or electricity, and the closure of retail stores, contributed to a situation where food or supplies contaminated with iodine -131 were not consumed in large quantities in general, even before the food restriction order. Since people consumed tap water and water from other sources before the implementation of restriction orders in affected areas, we surveyed the status of water as a potential route of internal exposure.

[Organization of anesthesia management and advanced life support at military medical evacuation levels].

PubMed

Shchegolev, A V; Petrakov, V A; Savchenko, I F

2014-07-01

Anesthesia management and advanced life support for the severely wounded personnel at military medical evacuation levels in armed conflict (local war) is time-consuming and resource-requiring task. One of the mathematical modeling methods was used to evaluate capabilities of anesthesia and intensive care units at tactical level. Obtained result allows us to tell that there is a need to make several system changes of the existing system of anesthesia management and advanced life support for the severely wounded personnel at military medical evacuation levels. In addition to increasing number of staff of anesthesiology-critical care during the given period of time another solution should be the creation of an early evacuation to a specialized medical care level by special means while conducting intensive monitoring and treatment.

A novel grid-based mesoscopic model for evacuation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Meng; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Ma, Yi

2018-05-01

This study presents a novel grid-based mesoscopic model for evacuation dynamics. In this model, the evacuation space is discretised into larger cells than those used in microscopic models. This approach directly computes the dynamic changes crowd densities in cells over the course of an evacuation. The density flow is driven by the density-speed correlation. The computation is faster than in traditional cellular automata evacuation models which determine density by computing the movements of each pedestrian. To demonstrate the feasibility of this model, we apply it to a series of practical scenarios and conduct a parameter sensitivity study of the effect of changes in time step δ. The simulation results show that within the valid range of δ, changing δ has only a minor impact on the simulation. The model also makes it possible to directly acquire key information such as bottleneck areas from a time-varied dynamic density map, even when a relatively large time step is adopted. We use the commercial software AnyLogic to evaluate the model. The result shows that the mesoscopic model is more efficient than the microscopic model and provides more in-situ details (e.g., pedestrian movement pattern) than the macroscopic models.

Effect of varying two key parameters in simulating evacuation for a dormitory in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran

2013-01-01

Student dormitories are both living and resting areas for students in their spare time. There are many small rooms in the dormitories. And the students are distributed densely in the dormitories. High occupant density is the main characteristic of student dormitories. Once there is an accident, such as fire or earthquake, the losses will be cruel. Computer evacuation models developed overseas are commonly applied in working out safety management schemes. The average minimum widths of corridor and exit are the two key parameters affecting the evacuation for the dormitory. The effect of varying these two parameters will be studied in this paper by taking a dormitory in our university as an example. Evacuation performance is predicted with the software FDS + Evac. The default values in the software are used and adjusted through a field survey. The effect of varying either of the two parameters is discussed. It is found that the simulated results agree well with the experimental results. From our study it seems that the evacuation time is not in proportion to the evacuation distance. And we also named a phenomenon of “the closer is not the faster”. For the building researched in this article, a corridor width of 3 m is the most appropriate. And the suitable exit width of the dormitory for evacuation is about 2.5 to 3 m. The number of people has great influence on the walking speed of people. The purpose of this study is to optimize the building, and to make the building in favor of personnel evacuation. Then the damage could be minimized.

Simulating the effects of social networks on a population's hurricane evacuation participation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widener, Michael J.; Horner, Mark W.; Metcalf, Sara S.

2013-04-01

Scientists have noted that recent shifts in the earth's climate have resulted in more extreme weather events, like stronger hurricanes. Such powerful storms disrupt societal function and result in a tremendous number of casualties, as demonstrated by recent hurricane experience in the US Planning for and facilitating evacuations of populations forecast to be impacted by hurricanes is perhaps the most effective strategy for reducing risk. A potentially important yet relatively unexplored facet of people's evacuation decision-making involves the interpersonal communication processes that affect whether at-risk residents decide to evacuate. While previous research has suggested that word-of-mouth effects are limited, data supporting these assertions were collected prior to the widespread adoption of digital social media technologies. This paper argues that the influence of social network effects on evacuation decisions should be revisited given the potential of new social media for impacting and augmenting information dispersion through real-time interpersonal communication. Using geographic data within an agent-based model of hurricane evacuation in Bay County, Florida, we examine how various types of social networks influence participation in evacuation. It is found that strategies for encouraging evacuation should consider the social networks influencing individuals during extreme events, as it can be used to increase the number of evacuating residents.

The Armys Armored Multi Purpose Vehicle (AMPV): Background and Issues for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-24

vehicles and provide protection against the challenging threats that the ABCTs are designed to fight against (page 2).  Because the medical evacuation ...carriers, and medical treatment and evacuation vehicles. An estimated 3,000 of these M-113 variants are currently in service with the Army. The AMPV is...not vehicles that are specially designed and not currently in service). Some suggest that a non-developmental vehicle might make it easier for the

Evacuation Behavior: Case Study of the Taft Louisiana Chemical Tank Explosion Incident.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-01

bedridden elderly evacuees. The weather was cool to cold on Saturday so both children and adults remained indoors. To combat boredom, a film was shown in...adults, and 10 percent were elderly adults (however, one nuclear plant evacuation document estimates that there are approximately 5,000 persons 60 years...by the transportation officer, but a pattern was followed. People living in neighborhoods known to contain the poor and/or elderly were serviced first

A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass.

PubMed

Sánchez, Jesús M; Carrera, Álvaro; Iglesias, Carlos Á; Serrano, Emilio

2016-08-24

Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones) with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

Experimental study and numerical simulation of evacuation from a dormitory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran; Zhou, Ning; Mei, Sen; Tian, Zhenguo

2012-11-01

The evacuation process of students from a dormitory is investigated by both experiment and modeling. We investigate the video record of pedestrian movement in a dormitory, and find some typical characteristics of evacuation, including continuous pedestrian flow, mass behavior and so on. Based on the experimental observation, we found that simulation results considering pre-movement time are closer to the experimental results. With the model considering pre-movement time, we simulate the evacuation process and compare the simulation results with the experimental results, and find that they agree with each other closely. The crowd massing phenomenon is conducted in this paper. It is found that different crowd massing phenomena will emerge due to different desired velocities. The crowd massing phenomenon could be more serious with the increase of the desired velocity. In this study, we also found the faster-is-slower effect. When the positive effect produced by increasing the desired velocity is not sufficient for making up for its negative effect, the phenomenon of the greater the desired velocity the longer the time required for evacuation will emerge. From the video record, it can be observed that the mass behavior is obvious during the evacuation process. And the mass phenomenon could also be found in simulation. The results obtained from our study are also suitable to all these buildings in which both living and resting areas occupy the majority space, such as dormitories, residential buildings, hotels (restaurants) and so on.

VR-simulation cataract surgery in non-experienced trainees: evolution of surgical skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Söderberg, Per; Erngrund, Markus; Skarman, Eva; Nordh, Leif; Laurell, Carl-Gustaf

2011-03-01

Conclusion: The current data imply that the performance index as defined herein is a valid measure of the performance of a trainee using the virtual reality phacoemulsification simulator. Further, the performance index increase linearly with measurement cycles for less than five measurement cycles. To fully use the learning potential of the simulator more than four measurement cycles are required. Materials and methods: Altogether, 10 trainees were introduced to the simulator by an instructor and then performed a training program including four measurement cycles with three iterated measurements of the simulation at the end of each cycle. The simulation characteristics was standardized and defined in 14 parameters. The simulation was measured separately for the sculpting phase in 21 variables, and for the evacuation phase in 22 variables. A performance index based on all measured variables was estimated for the sculpting phase and the evacuation phase, respectively, for each measurement and the three measurements for each cycle were averaged. Finally, the performance as a function of measurement cycle was estimated for each trainee with regression, assuming a straight line. The estimated intercept and inclination coefficients, respectively, were finally averaged for all trainees. Results: The performance increased linearly with the number of measurement cycles both for the sculpting and for the evacuation phase.

Utilization of telemedicine in the U.S. military in a deployed setting.

PubMed

Hwang, Jane S; Lappan, Charles M; Sperling, Leonard C; Meyerle, Jon H

2014-11-01

A retrospective evaluation of the Department of Defense teledermatology consultation program from 2004 to 2012 was performed, focusing on clinical application and outcome measures such as consult volume, response time, and medical evacuation status. A retrospective review of the teledermatology program between 2004 and 2012 was evaluated based on defined outcome measures. In addition, 658 teledermatology cases were reviewed to assess how the program was utilized by health care providers from 2011 to 2012. As high as 98% of the teledermatology consults were answered within 24 hours, and 23% of consults within 1 hour. The most common final diagnoses included eczematous dermatitis, contact dermatitis, and evaluation for nonmelanoma skin cancer. The most common medications recommended included topical corticosteroids, oral antibiotics, antihistamines, and emollients. Biopsy was most commonly recommended for further evaluation. Following teleconsultation, 46 dermatologic evacuations were "avoided" as the patient was not evacuated based on the consultants' recommendation. Consultants' recommendations to the referring provider "facilitated" 41 evacuations. Telemedicine in the U.S. military has provided valuable dermatology support to providers in remote locations by delivering appropriate and timely consultation for military service members and coalition partners. In addition to avoiding unnecessary medical evacuations, the program facilitated appropriate evacuations that may otherwise have been delayed. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

2015-11-01

Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

The effects of wearing Passenger Protective Breathing Equipment on evacuation times through type III and type IV emergency aircraft exits in clear air and smoke.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-11-01

The effects of Passenger Protective Breathing Equipment (PPBE) on the time required for simulated emergency evacuations through Type III and Type IV overwing aircraft exits were studied in two quasi-independent experiments, one in clear air and anoth...

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : a mobile real-time traffic counter for monitoring hurricane evacuation traffic conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-01

The objective of this part of the research study was to select and acquire a mobile traffic counter capable of providing traffic flow and average speed data in intervals of time no greater than 15 minutes and transmit the data back to a central locat...

Empirical study on social groups in pedestrian evacuation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Krüchten, Cornelia; Schadschneider, Andreas

2017-06-01

Pedestrian crowds often include social groups, i.e. pedestrians that walk together because of social relationships. They show characteristic configurations and influence the dynamics of the entire crowd. In order to investigate the impact of social groups on evacuations we performed an empirical study with pupils. Several evacuation runs with groups of different sizes and different interactions were performed. New group parameters are introduced which allow to describe the dynamics of the groups and the configuration of the group members quantitatively. The analysis shows a possible decrease of evacuation times for large groups due to self-ordering effects. Social groups can be approximated as ellipses that orientate along their direction of motion. Furthermore, explicitly cooperative behaviour among group members leads to a stronger aggregation of group members and an intermittent way of evacuation.

Evacuation dynamic and exit optimization of a supermarket based on particle swarm optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Yu, Zhonghai; Chen, Yang

2014-12-01

A modified particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed in this paper to investigate the dynamic of pedestrian evacuation from a fire in a public building-a supermarket with multiple exits and configurations of counters. Two distinctive evacuation behaviours featured by the shortest-path strategy and the following-up strategy are simulated in the model, accounting for different categories of age and sex of the pedestrians along with the impact of the fire, including gases, heat and smoke. To examine the relationship among the progress of the overall evacuation and the layout and configuration of the site, a series of simulations are conducted in various settings: without a fire and with a fire at different locations. Those experiments reveal a general pattern of two-phase evacuation, i.e., a steep section and a flat section, in addition to the impact of the presence of multiple exits on the evacuation along with the geographic locations of the exits. For the study site, our simulations indicated the deficiency of the configuration and the current layout of this site in the process of evacuation and verified the availability of proposed solutions to resolve the deficiency. More specifically, for improvement of the effectiveness of the evacuation from the site, adding an exit between Exit 6 and Exit 7 and expanding the corridor at the right side of Exit 7 would significantly reduce the evacuation time.

Modeling Evacuation of a Hospital without Electric Power.

PubMed

Vugrin, Eric D; Verzi, Stephen J; Finley, Patrick D; Turnquist, Mark A; Griffin, Anne R; Ricci, Karen A; Wyte-Lake, Tamar

2015-06-01

Hospital evacuations that occur during, or as a result of, infrastructure outages are complicated and demanding. Loss of infrastructure services can initiate a chain of events with corresponding management challenges. This report describes a modeling case study of the 2001 evacuation of the Memorial Hermann Hospital in Houston, Texas (USA). The study uses a model designed to track such cascading events following loss of infrastructure services and to identify the staff, resources, and operational adaptations required to sustain patient care and/or conduct an evacuation. The model is based on the assumption that a hospital's primary mission is to provide necessary medical care to all of its patients, even when critical infrastructure services to the hospital and surrounding areas are disrupted. Model logic evaluates the hospital's ability to provide an adequate level of care for all of its patients throughout a period of disruption. If hospital resources are insufficient to provide such care, the model recommends an evacuation. Model features also provide information to support evacuation and resource allocation decisions for optimizing care over the entire population of patients. This report documents the application of the model to a scenario designed to resemble the 2001 evacuation of the Memorial Hermann Hospital, demonstrating the model's ability to recreate the timeline of an actual evacuation. The model is also applied to scenarios demonstrating how its output can inform evacuation planning activities and timing.

Weathering the storm: challenges to nurses providing care to nursing home residents during hurricanes.

PubMed

Hyer, Kathryn; Brown, Lisa M; Christensen, Janelle J; Thomas, Kali S

2009-11-01

This article documents the experience of 291 Florida nursing homes during the 2004 hurricane season. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the authors described and compared the challenges nurses encountered when evacuating residents with their experiences assisting residents of facilities that sheltered in place. The primary concerns for evacuating facilities were accessing appropriate evacuation sites for residents and having ambulance transportation contracts honored. The main issue for facilities that sheltered in place was the length of time it took for power to be restored. Barriers to maintaining resident health during disasters for those who evacuated or sheltered in place are identified.

Fluid Transient Analysis during Priming of Evacuated Line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bandyopadhyay, Alak; Majumdar, Alok K.; Holt, Kimberley

2017-01-01

Water hammer analysis in pipe lines, in particularly during priming into evacuated lines is important for the design of spacecraft and other in-space application. In the current study, a finite volume network flow analysis code is used for modeling three different geometrical configurations: the first two being straight pipe, one with atmospheric air and other with evacuated line, and the third case is a representation of a complex flow network system. The numerical results show very good agreement qualitatively and quantitatively with measured data available in the literature. The peak pressure and impact time in case of straight pipe priming in evacuated line shows excellent agreement.

A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Jesús M.; Carrera, Álvaro; Iglesias, Carlos Á.; Serrano, Emilio

2016-01-01

Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones) with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services. PMID:27563911

Evacuee Compliance Behavior Analysis using High Resolution Demographic Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Wei; Han, Lee; Liu, Cheng

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine whether evacuee compliance behavior with route assignments from different resolutions of demographic data would impact the evacuation performance. Most existing evacuation strategies assume that travelers will follow evacuation instructions, while in reality a certain percent of evacuees do not comply with prescribed instructions. In this paper, a comparison study of evacuation assignment based on Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) and high resolution LandScan USA Population Cells (LPC) were conducted for the detailed road network representing Alexandria, Virginia. A revised platform for evacuation modeling built on high resolution demographic data and activity-based microscopic trafficmore » simulation is proposed. The results indicate that evacuee compliance behavior affects evacuation efficiency with traditional TAZ assignment, but it does not significantly compromise the efficiency with high resolution LPC assignment. The TAZ assignment also underestimates the real travel time during evacuation, especially for high compliance simulations. This suggests that conventional evacuation studies based on TAZ assignment might not be effective at providing efficient guidance to evacuees. From the high resolution data perspective, traveler compliance behavior is an important factor but it does not impact the system performance significantly. The highlight of evacuee compliance behavior analysis should be emphasized on individual evacuee level route/shelter assignments, rather than the whole system performance.« less

Dual effects of pedestrian density on emergency evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Yuen, Richard Kwok Kit

2017-02-01

This paper investigates the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic with simulation method. In the simulations, both the visibility in building and the exit limit of building are taken into account. The simulation results show that the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamics is dual. On the one hand, when the visibility in building is very large, the increased pedestrian density plays a negative effect. On the other hand, when the visibility in building is very small, the increased pedestrian density can play a positive effect. The simulation results also show that when both the exit width and visibility are very small, the varying of evacuation time with regard to the pedestrian density is non-monotonous and presents a U-shaped tendency. That is, in this case, too large or too small pedestrian density in building is disadvantageous to the evacuation process. Our findings provide a new insight about the effect of the pedestrian density in building on the evacuation dynamic.

Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

2009-05-01

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reducemore » the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.« less

Implications Of The 11 March Tohoku Tsunami On Warning Systems And Vertical Evacuation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, S.; Leonard, G.; Johnston, D.

2011-12-01

The Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11th 2011 claimed over 20,000 lives in an event which inundated over 500 km2 of land on the north-east coast of Japan. Successful execution of tsunami warning procedures and evacuation strategies undoubtedly saved thousands of lives, and there is evidence that vertical evacuation facilities were a key part of reducing the fatality rate in several municipalities in the Sendai Plains. As with all major disasters, however, post-event observations show that there are lessons to be learned in minimising life loss in future events. This event has raised or reinforced several key points that should be considered for implementation in all areas at risk from tsunami around the world. Primary areas for discussion are the need for redundant power supplies in tsunami warning systems; considerations of natural warnings when official warnings may not come; adequate understanding and estimation of the tsunami hazard; thorough site assessments for critical infrastructure, including emergency management facilities and tsunami refuges; and adequate signage of evacuation routes and refuges. This paper will present observations made on two field visits to the Tohoku region during 2011, drawing conclusions from field observations and discussions with local emergency officials. These observations will inform the enhancement of current tsunami evacuation strategies in New Zealand; it is believed discussion of these observations can also benefit continuing development of warning and evacuation strategies existing in the United States and elsewhere.

Critical review and meta-analysis of spurious hemolysis in blood samples collected from intravenous catheters

PubMed Central

Lippi, Giuseppe; Cervellin, Gianfranco; Mattiuzzi, Camilla

2013-01-01

Background: A number of preanalytical activities strongly influence sample quality, especially those related to sample collection. Since blood drawing through intravenous catheters is reported as a potential source of erythrocyte injury, we performed a critical review and meta-analysis about the risk of catheter-related hemolysis. Materials and methods: We performed a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus to estimate the risk of spurious hemolysis in blood samples collected from intravenous catheters. A meta-analysis with calculation of Odds ratio (OR) and Relative risk (RR) along with 95% Confidence interval (95% CI) was carried out using random effect mode. Results: Fifteen articles including 17 studies were finally selected. The total number of patients was 14,796 in 13 studies assessing catheter and evacuated tubes versus straight needle and evacuated tubes, and 1251 in 4 studies assessing catheter and evacuated tubes versus catheter and manual aspiration. A significant risk of hemolysis was found in studies assessing catheter and evacuated tubes versus straight needle and evacuated tubes (random effect OR 3.4; 95% CI = 2.9–3.9 and random effect RR 1.07; 95% CI = 1.06–1.08), as well as in studies assessing catheter and evacuated tubes versus catheter and manual aspiration of blood (OR 3.7; 95% CI = 2.7–5.1 and RR 1.32; 95% CI = 1.24–1.40). Conclusions: Sample collection through intravenous catheters is associated with significant higher risk of spurious hemolysis as compared with standard blood drawn by straight needle, and this risk is further amplified when intravenous catheter are associated with primary evacuated blood tubes as compared with manual aspiration. PMID:23894864

Planning Protective Action Decision-Making: Evacuate or Shelter-in-Place

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorensen, J.H.

Appropriate protective action recommendations or decisions (PARs/PADs) are needed to achieve maximum protection of a population at risk. The factors that affect protective action decisions are complex but fairly well documented. Protective action decisions take into account population distributions, projected or actual exposure to a chemical substance, availability of adequate shelters, evacuation time estimates, and other relevant factors. To choose in-place sheltering, there should be a reasonable assurance that the movement of people beyond their residence, workplace, or school will endanger the health and safety of the public more so than allowing them to remain in place. The decision tomore » evacuate the public should be based on the reasonable assurance that the movement of people to an area outside of an affected area is in the best interest of their health and safety, and is of minimal risk to them. In reality, an evacuation decision is also a resource-dependent decision. The availability of transportation and other resources, including shelters, may factor heavily in the protective action decision-making process. All strategies to protect the health and safety of the public from a release of hazardous chemicals are explicitly considered during emergency decision making. Each institutional facility (such as hospitals, schools, day care centers, correctional facilities, assisted living facilities or nursing homes) in the community should be considered separately to determine what special protective actions may be necessary. Deciding whether to evacuate or to shelter-in-place is one of the most important questions facing local emergency planners responding to a toxic chemical release. That such a complex decision with such important potential consequences must be made with such urgency places tremendous responsibility on the planners and officials involved. Researchers have devoted considerable attention to the evacuation/shelter-in-place protection decision. While several decision aids have been developed, no single approach has achieved widespread acceptance based on validity, utility, and effectiveness (Ujihara 1989, Mannan and Kilpatrick 2000). In the absence of an agreed-upon methodology for making this decision, the best strategy for local emergency planners and officials is a thorough understanding of all the components affecting the decision. This paper summarizes what is currently known about the evacuation/shelter-in-place protection decision and points to available literature that more thoroughly explores the individual components of the decision. The next section summarizes the major issues in protective action decision process. This is followed by a discussion of all the factors that may bear on the protective action decision process. The final section address how to make a protective action decision.« less

Coordination of IVI and transit signal priority on transit evacuations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

During an emergency evacuation, execution time is always critical to the evacuees who are : transit dependent. Transit Signal Priority (TSP) can speed up the transit services by prioritizing : the approaching bus at a signalized intersection. With th...

Dynamic real-time routing for evacuation response planning and execution : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

Strategic planning for emergency response is critical for : effective response to natural or deliberate disasters. Re- sponse vehicle routing and evacuation of : the affected people are part of emergency response operations under disasters. The respo...

The Effect of Person Order on Egress Time: A Simulation Model of Evacuation From a Neolithic Visitor Attraction.

PubMed

Stewart, Arthur; Elyan, Eyad; Isaacs, John; McEwen, Leah; Wilson, Lyn

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to model the egress of visitors from a Neolithic visitor attraction. Tourism attracts increasing numbers of elderly and mobility-impaired visitors to our built-environment heritage sites. Some such sites have very limited and awkward access, were not designed for mass visitation, and may not be modifiable to facilitate disabled access. As a result, emergency evacuation planning must take cognizance of robust information, and in this study we aimed to establish the effect of visitor position on egress. Direct observation of three tours at Maeshowe, Orkney, informed typical time of able-bodied individuals and a mobility-impaired person through the 10-m access tunnel. This observation informed the design of egress and evacuation models running on the Unity gaming platform. A slow-moving person at the observed speed typically increased time to safety of 20 people by 170% and reduced the advantage offered by closer tunnel separation by 26%. Using speeds for size-specific characters of 50th, 95th, and 99th percentiles increased time to safety in emergency evacuation by 51% compared with able-bodied individuals. Larger individuals may slow egress times of a group; however, a single slow-moving mobility-impaired person exerts a greater influence on group egress, profoundly influencing those behind. Unidirectional routes in historic buildings and other visitor attractions are vulnerable to slow-moving visitors during egress. The model presented in this study is scalable, is applicable to other buildings, and can be used as part of a risk assessment and emergency evacuation plan in future work.

Estimate of the Potential Amount of Low-Level Waste from the Fukushima Prefecture - 12370

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, Carolyn; Olson, Eric A.J.; Elmer, John

2012-07-01

The amount of waste generated by the cleanup of the Fukushima Prefecture (Fukushima-ken) following the releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident (March 2011) is dependent on many factors, including: - Contamination amounts; - Cleanup levels determined for the radioisotopes contaminating the area; - Future land use expectations and human exposure scenarios; - Groundwater contamination considerations; - Costs and availability of storage areas, and eventually disposal areas for the waste; and - Decontamination and volume reduction techniques and technologies used. For the purposes of estimating these waste volumes, Fukushima-ken is segregated into zones of similar contamination level andmore » expected future use. Techniques for selecting the appropriate cleanup methods for each area are shown in a decision tree format. This approach is broadly applied to the 20 km evacuation zone and the total amounts and types of waste are estimated; waste resulting from cleanup efforts outside of the evacuation zone is not considered. Some of the limits of future use and potential zones where residents must be excluded within the prefecture are also described. The size and design of the proposed intermediate storage facility is also discussed and the current situation, cleanup, waste handling, and waste storage issues in Japan are described. The method for estimating waste amounts outlined above illustrates the large amount of waste that could potentially be generated by remediation of the 20 km evacuation zone (619 km{sup 2} total) if the currently proposed cleanup goals are uniformly applied. The Japanese environment ministry estimated in early October that the 1 mSv/year exposure goal would make the government responsible for decontaminating about 8,000 km{sup 2} within Fukushima-ken and roughly 4,900 km{sup 2} in areas outside the prefecture. The described waste volume estimation method also does not give any consideration to areas with localized hot spots. Land use and area dose rate estimates for the 20 km evacuation zone indicate there are large areas where doses to the public can be mitigated through methods other than removal and disposal of soil and other wastes. Several additional options for waste reduction can also be considered, including: - Recycling/reusing or disposing of as municipal waste material that can be unconditionally cleared; - Establishing additional precautionary (e.g., liners) and monitoring requirements for municipal landfills to dispose of some conditionally-cleared material; and - Using slightly-contaminated material in construction of reclamations, banks and roads. Waste estimates for cleanup will continue to evolve as decontamination plans are drafted and finalized. (authors)« less

Real-time data for hurricane evacuation in Texas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-02-01

In September 2005, the threat of Hurricane Rita to the Houston-Galveston region resulted in the evacuation of more than one million persons from the Texas coastal and urban areas. This concentration of evacuees overloaded all routes leaving the Houst...

Tsunami evacuation buildings and evacuation planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia.

PubMed

Yuzal, Hendri; Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

Indonesia, a country of more than 17,000 islands, is exposed to many hazards. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. It triggered a series of tsunami waves that spread across the Indian Ocean causing damage in 11 countries. Banda Aceh, the capital city of Aceh Province, was among the most damaged. More than 31,000 people were killed. At the time, there were no early warning systems nor evacuation buildings that could provide safe refuge for residents. Since then, four tsunami evacuation buildings (TEBs) have been constructed in the Meuraxa subdistrict of Banda Aceh. Based on analysis of evacuation routes and travel times, the capacity of existing TEBs is examined. Existing TEBs would not be able to shelter all of the at-risk population. In this study, additional buildings and locations for TEBs are proposed and residents are assigned to the closest TEBs. While TEBs may be part of a larger system of tsunami mitigation efforts, other strategies and approaches need to be considered. In addition to TEBs, robust detection, warning and alert systems, land use planning, training, exercises, and other preparedness strategies are essential to tsunami risk reduction.

A computer simulation of aircraft evacuation with fire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Middleton, V. E.

1983-01-01

A computer simulation was developed to assess passenger survival during the post-crash evacuation of a transport category aircraft when fire is a major threat. The computer code, FIREVAC, computes individual passenger exit paths and times to exit, taking into account delays and congestion caused by the interaction among the passengers and changing cabin conditions. Simple models for the physiological effects of the toxic cabin atmosphere are included with provision for including more sophisticated models as they become available. Both wide-body and standard-body aircraft may be simulated. Passenger characteristics are assigned stochastically from experimentally derived distributions. Results of simulations of evacuation trials and hypothetical evacuations under fire conditions are presented.

Evaluation of response variables in computer-simulated virtual cataract surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Söderberg, Per G.; Laurell, Carl-Gustaf; Simawi, Wamidh; Nordqvist, Per; Skarman, Eva; Nordh, Leif

2006-02-01

We have developed a virtual reality (VR) simulator for phacoemulsification (phaco) surgery. The current work aimed at evaluating the precision in the estimation of response variables identified for measurement of the performance of VR phaco surgery. We identified 31 response variables measuring; the overall procedure, the foot pedal technique, the phacoemulsification technique, erroneous manipulation, and damage to ocular structures. Totally, 8 medical or optometry students with a good knowledge of ocular anatomy and physiology but naive to cataract surgery performed three sessions each of VR Phaco surgery. For measurement, the surgical procedure was divided into a sculpting phase and an evacuation phase. The 31 response variables were measured for each phase in all three sessions. The variance components for individuals and iterations of sessions within individuals were estimated with an analysis of variance assuming a hierarchal model. The consequences of estimated variabilities for sample size requirements were determined. It was found that generally there was more variability for iterated sessions within individuals for measurements of the sculpting phase than for measurements of the evacuation phase. This resulted in larger required sample sizes for detection of difference between independent groups or change within group, for the sculpting phase as compared to for the evacuation phase. It is concluded that several of the identified response variables can be measured with sufficient precision for evaluation of VR phaco surgery.

Tsunami Evacuation Plan for the City of Tangier-Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benchekroun, Sabah; Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Arbi Toto, El

2016-04-01

Tsunami evacuation plan is an important tool to mitigate the tsunami impact. It is the most efficient way to save human lives, well before the waves reach the threatened coastal area, by providing evacuation routes and appropriate shelters. In this study, we propose a tsunami evacuation plan for the city of Tangier-Morocco. This plan is designed considering the tsunami threat from the tsunamigenic sources located in the SW Iberia Margin and using the inundation maps of the worst case to define the limit of flooding area. The evacuation plan is elaborated through modelling the required time for the threatened coastal population to reach the shelters. Results of this study will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazard. This work received funding from collaborative project ASTARTE - Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe Grant 603839, FP7.

Simulation Tool for Optimizing Non-Combatant Evacuation (STONE): Optimization of Evacuation Time and Transportation Resource Utilization

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

2015 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2015 Abstract A Non-Combatant Evacuation...Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade recommended that more frequent assessments of NEO plans be conducted...étrangères et du commerce international a recommandé que des évaluations dans ses missions à l’étranger soient faites plus fréquemment

The Impact of Transport Time on Outcomes Following Evacuation from Point of Injury

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-16

FROM: 59 MDW/SGVU SUBJECT: Professional Presentation Approval 1. Your paper, entitled The Impact of Transport Time on Outcomes Following Evacuation from...mail) that your presentation was given. At that time , we will need the date (month, day and year) along with the location of your presentation. It is...Congratulations, and thank you for your efforts and time . Your contributions are vital to the medical mission. We look forward to assisting you in your future

A Simple Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Tool for First Responders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, Daniel B; Payne, Patricia W

2015-01-01

Although modeling and simulation of mass evacuations during a natural or man-made disaster is an on-going and vigorous area of study, tool adoption by front-line first responders is uneven. Some of the factors that account for this situation include cost and complexity of the software. For several years, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been actively developing the free Incident Management Preparedness and Coordination Toolkit (IMPACT) to address these issues. One of the components of IMPACT is a multi-agent simulation module for area-based and path-based evacuations. The user interface is designed so that anyone familiar with typical computer drawing tools canmore » quickly author a geospatially-correct evacuation visualization suitable for table-top exercises. Since IMPACT is designed for use in the field where network communications may not be available, quick on-site evacuation alternatives can be evaluated to keep pace with a fluid threat situation. Realism is enhanced by incorporating collision avoidance into the simulation. Statistics are gathered as the simulation unfolds, including most importantly time-to-evacuate, to help first responders choose the best course of action.« less

Survival of Juvenile Chinook Salmon during Barge Transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Skalski, J. R.; Deters, Katherine A.

2011-12-01

To mitigate for fish losses related to passage through the Federal Columbia River Power System, an extensive fish transportation program using barges and trucks to move fish around and downstream of dams and reservoirs was implemented in 1981. Population modeling and other analyses to support Pacific salmon recovery efforts have assumed that the survival of juvenile salmonids during the transportation experience was 98%. To estimate survival during barge transport from Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River to a release area downstream of Bonneville Dam, a distance of 470 km, we used a novel adaptation of a release-recapture model withmore » acoustic-tagged yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) smolts. A total of 1,494 yearling Chinook salmon were surgically implanted with Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) acoustic transmitters and passive integrated transponders (PIT) and divided into three groups. The three tagged groups consisted of; (1) a group which was released into the raceway with the population of fish which were later loaded into transportation barges (R{sub B}), (2) a group which was held in a net-pen suspended within the general barge population until 5-6 h prior to barge evacuation, at which time they were confirmed to be alive and then released into the general barge population (R{sub A}), and (3) to validate a model assumption, a group which was euthanized and released into the barge population 2-8 h prior to barge evacuation (R{sub D}). Six replicates of these groups were loaded onto fish transport barges that departed Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River between 29 April and 13 May, 2010. Acoustic receiver arrays between 70 and 220 km downstream of the barge evacuation site were used to detect tagged fish and served as the basis for estimation of survival within the barge. Tag-life-corrected estimates of reach survival were calculated for barged and control fish in each of the six replicate trials. The ratio of survival from release to Rkm 153 for barged fish relative to control fish provided the estimate of within-barge survival. The replicate survival estimates ranged from 0.9503 (SE = 0.0253) to 1.0003 (SE = 0.0155). The weighted average of the replicate estimates of within-barge survival was computed to be = 0.9833 (SE = 0.0062). This study provides the first documentation that assumed survival of 98% inside barges during yearling Chinook salmon smolt transport appears to be justified. Survival of other species or stocks by barge or for any species/stock by truck remains unknown.« less

Development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation model for the New Orleans area : research project capsule.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-01

Current hurricane evacuation transportation modeling uses an approach fashioned after the : traditional four-step procedure applied in urban transportation planning. One of the limiting : features of this approach is that it models traffic in a stati...

Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.

2012-05-22

Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuatemore » people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.« less

Two occurrences of delayed epidural hematoma in different areas following decompressive craniectomy for acute subdural hematoma in a single patient: a case report.

PubMed

Wu, Ruhong; Shi, Jia; Cao, Jiachao; Mao, Yumin; Dong, Bo

2017-12-04

Delayed epidural hematoma (DEH) following evacuation of traumatic acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) or acute epidural hematoma (EDH) is a rare but devastating complication, especially when it occurs sequentially in a single patient. A 19-year-old man who developed contralateral DEH following craniotomy for evacuation of a traumatic right-side ASDH and then developed a left-side DEH of the posterior cranial fossa after craniotomy for evacuation of the contralateral DEH. He was immediately returned to the operating room for additional surgeries and his neurological outcome was satisfactory. Although DEH occurring after evacuation of ASDH or acute EDH is a rare event, timely recognition is critical to prognosis.

A cellular automaton model for evacuation flow using game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Junbiao; Wang, Kaihua; Chen, Fangyue

2016-11-01

Game theory serves as a good tool to explore crowd dynamic conflicts during evacuation processes. The purpose of this study is to simulate the complicated interaction behavior among the conflicting pedestrians in an evacuation flow. Two types of pedestrians, namely, defectors and cooperators, are considered, and two important factors including fear index and cost coefficient are taken into account. By combining the snowdrift game theory with a cellular automaton (CA) model, it is shown that the increase of fear index and cost coefficient will lengthen the evacuation time, which is more apparent for large values of cost coefficient. Meanwhile, it is found that the defectors to cooperators ratio could always tend to consistent states despite different values of parameters, largely owing to self-organization effects.

Variations in time-to-incapacitation and blood cyanide values for rats exposed to two hydrogen cyanide gas concentration.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-05-01

It has been suggested that protective breathing devices protect aircraft passengers from combustion products for 5 min. during evacuation and for 35 min. during in-flight-plus-evacuation. Hydrogen cyanide (HCN), a combustion gas, produces incapacitat...

Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastián; Kuperman, Marcelo N.

2016-08-01

Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.

Archimedes and the Magdeburg Hemispheres

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayn, Carl H.

1975-01-01

Weights suspended from a lever arm separate evacuated hemispheres allowing estimation of atmospheric pressure to within five percent of the barometric reading. An illustration and a reference to von Guericke's demonstration are provided. (GH)

Variations of time-to-incapacitation and carboxyhemoglobin values in rats exposed to two carbon monoxide concentrations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-05-01

It has been suggested that passenger protective breathing equipment protect aircraft passengers from smoke for 5 min during an evacuation phase and for 35 min during an in-flight-plus-evacuation phase. Carbon monoxide (CO) is one of the most abundant...

Ventilation and oxygen uptake during escape from a civil aircraft.

PubMed

Ross, J A; Watt, S J; Henderson, G D; Vant, J H

1990-01-01

To help develop a specification for equipment providing personal respiratory protection in the event of aircraft fire a study was carried out to quantify ventilation and oxygen consumption during escape from a Trident aircraft. Data were gathered using the P.K. Morgan 'Oxylog' apparatus after its response time to rapid changes in inspired to expired oxygen concentration difference was assessed using a bench test. The 'Oxylog' had a lag time of 30-32 s and a 5-95% response typified by a half time of 20 s. The data gathered were corrected in the light of these findings. Fourteen male subjects aged 17-38 years were studied under two conditions. Four mass evacuations each involving 40 people; a total of nine subjects escaping from the front rank over eight seats being monitored. Six evacuations each involving only two people escaping from the rear of the cabin; a total of 11 subjects escaping over 14 seats being monitored. Escape was made over the seat backs, down an escape chute to a position 12 m from the base of the chute. Resting minute ventilation (mean 16.7 1 STPD) and oxygen consumption (mean 0.41 min-1 STPD) were similar before both evacuations. There were no significant differences between the two conditions either during, or up to 180 s after escape. Ventilation and oxygen consumption were greatest in the recovery period. The highest oxygen consumption seen was 2.08 l min-1 and maximum minute ventilation was 641. Mean total oxygen consumption for the escape and a 150 s recovery period was 2.41 l (s.d. 0.64, max. 3.11) for the mass evacuation and 2.97 l (s.d. 0.68, max. 4.09) for the two person evacuation. The mean total amount of gas inhaled during the same time period was 89.3 l (s.d. 25.6, max. 121.3) for the mass evacuation and 99.01 (s.d. 26.2, max. 137.3) for the other. These was no correlation between ventilation or oxygen consumption and either escape time, body weight, height or age.

Making Multi-Level Tsunami Evacuation Playbooks Operational in California and Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Peterson, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Popham, C.; Richards, K.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile, 2011 Japan, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis in California and Hawaii, coastal emergency managers requested that state and federal tsunami programs investigate providing more detailed information about the flood potential and recommended evacuation for distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. Evacuation "Playbooks" for tsunamis of variable sizes and source locations have been developed for some communities in the two states, providing secondary options to an all or nothing approach for evacuation. Playbooks have been finalized for nearly 70% of the coastal communities in California, and have been drafted for evaluation by the communities of Honolulu and Hilo in Hawaii. A key component to determining a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami and making the Playbooks operational has been the development of the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the FASTER flood elevation value will be computed and used to select the appropriate minimum tsunami phase evacuation "Playbook" for use by the coastal communities. The states of California and Hawaii, the tsunami warning centers, and local weather service offices are working together to deliver recommendations on the appropriate evacuation Playbook plans for communities to use prior to the arrival of a distant-source tsunami. These partners are working closely with individual communities on developing conservative and consistent protocols on the use of the Playbooks. Playbooks help provide a scientifically-based, minimum response for small- to moderate-size tsunamis which could reduce the potential for over-evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people and save hundreds of millions of dollars in evacuation costs for communities and businesses.

A direct approach to estimating the number of potential fatalities from an eruption: Application to the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, J. M.; García, A.; Llinares, A.; Rodriguez-Losada, J. A.; Ortiz, R.

2012-03-01

One of the critical issues in managing volcanic crises is making the decision to evacuate a densely-populated region. In order to take a decision of such importance it is essential to estimate the cost in lives for each of the expected eruptive scenarios. One of the tools that assist in estimating the number of potential fatalities for such decision-making is the calculation of the FN-curves. In this case the FN-curve is a graphical representation that relates the frequency of the different hazards to be expected for a particular volcano or volcanic area, and the number of potential fatalities expected for each event if the zone of impact is not evacuated. In this study we propose a method for assessing the impact that a possible eruption from the Tenerife Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) would have on the population at risk. Factors taken into account include the spatial probability of the eruptive scenarios (susceptibility) and the temporal probability of the magnitudes of the eruptive scenarios. For each point or cell of the susceptibility map with greater probability, a series of probability-scaled hazard maps is constructed for the whole range of magnitudes expected. The number of potential fatalities is obtained from the intersection of the hazard maps with the spatial map of population distribution. The results show that the Emergency Plan for Tenerife must provide for the evacuation of more than 100,000 persons.

The World Trade Center bombing: injury prevention strategies for high-rise building fires.

PubMed

Quenemoen, L E; Davis, Y M; Malilay, J; Sinks, T; Noji, E K; Klitzman, S

1996-06-01

The WTC disaster provided an opportunity to look for ways to prevent morbidity among occupants of high-rise buildings during fires. This paper first describes the overall morbidity resulting from the explosion and fire, and second, presents the results of a case-control study carried out to identify risk factors for smoke-related morbidity. The main ones include: increased age, presence of a pre-existing cardio-pulmonary condition, entrapment in a lift and prolonged evacuation time. Study results point to the importance of the following safety systems during high-rise building fires: smoke-control systems with separate emergency power sources; lift-cars, lift-car position-monitoring systems, and lift-car communication systems with separate emergency power sources; two-way emergency communication systems on all floors and in stairwells; stairwells with emergency lighting and designed for the rapid egress of crowds; evacuation systems/equipment to assist in the evacuation of vulnerable people (elderly, infirm). Also important are evacuation plans that include regularly scheduled safety training and evacuation drills.

To Evacuate or Shelter in Place: Implications of Universal Hurricane Evacuation Policies on Nursing Home Residents

PubMed Central

Dosa, David; Hyer, Kathryn; Thomas, Kali; Swaminathan, Shailender; Feng, Zhanlian; Brown, Lisa; Mor, Vincent

2011-01-01

Objective To examine the differential morbidity/mortality associated with evacuation versus sheltering in place for nursing home (NH) residents exposed to the 4 most recent Gulf-hurricanes Methods Observational study using Medicare claims, and NH data sources. We compared the differential mortality/morbidity for long-stay residents exposed to 4 recent hurricanes (Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike) relative to those residing at the same NHs over the same time periods during the prior 2 non-hurricane years as a control. Using an instrumental variable analysis, we then evaluated the independent effect of evacuation on outcomes at 90 days. Results Among 36,389 NH residents exposed to a storm, the 30 and 90 day mortality/hospitalization rates increased compared to non-hurricane control years. There were a cumulative total of 277 extra deaths and 872 extra hospitalizations at 30 days. At 90 days, 579 extra deaths and 544 extra hospitalizations were observed. Using the instrumental variable analysis, evacuation increased the probability of death at 90 days from 2.7-5.3% and hospitalization by 1.8-8.3%, independent of other factors. Conclusion Among residents exposed to hurricanes, evacuation significantly exacerbated subsequent morbidity/mortality. PMID:21885350

Influences of exit and stair conditions on human evacuation in a dormitory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Wenjun; Li, Angui; Gao, Ran; Wang, Xiaowei

2012-12-01

Evacuation processes of students are investigated by experiment and simulation. The experiment is performed for students evacuating from a dormitory with an exit and stairs. FDS+Evac is proposed to simulate the exit and stair dynamics of occupant evacuation. Concerning the exit and stair widths, we put forward some useful standpoints. Good agreement is achieved between the predicted results and experimental results. With the increase of exit width, a significant stratification phenomenon will be found in flow rate. Stratification phenomenon is that two different stable flow rates will emerge during the evacuation. And the flow rate curve looks like a ladder. The larger the exit width, the earlier the stratification phenomenon appears. When exit width is more than 2.0 m, the flow rate of each exit width is divided into two stable stages, and the evacuation times show almost no change. The judgment that the existence of stairs causes flow stratification is reasonable. By changing the width of the stairs, we proved that judgment. The smaller the width of BC, the earlier the stratification appears. We found that scenario 5 is the most adverse circumstance. Those results are helpful in performance-based design of buildings.

Interdisciplinary modeling and analysis to reduce loss of life from tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

Recent disasters have demonstrated the significant loss of life and community impacts that can occur from tsunamis. Minimizing future losses requires an integrated understanding of the range of potential tsunami threats, how individuals are specifically vulnerable to these threats, what is currently in place to improve their chances of survival, and what risk-reduction efforts could be implemented. This presentation will provide a holistic perspective of USGS research enabled by recent advances in geospatial modeling to assess and communicate population vulnerability to tsunamis and the range of possible interventions to reduce it. Integrated research includes efforts to characterize the magnitude and demography of at-risk individuals in tsunami-hazard zones, their evacuation potential based on landscape conditions, nature-based mitigation to improve evacuation potential, evacuation pathways and population demand at assembly areas, siting considerations for vertical-evacuation refuges, community implications of multiple evacuation zones, car-based evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis, and projected changes in population exposure to tsunamis over time. Collectively, this interdisciplinary research supports emergency managers in their efforts to implement targeted risk-reduction efforts based on local conditions and needs, instead of generic regional strategies that only focus on hazard attributes.

Values of Flood Hazard Mapping for Disaster Risk Assessment and Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2015-12-01

Flood plains provide tremendous benefits for human settlements. Since olden days people have lived with floods and attempted to control them if necessary. Modern engineering works such as building embankment have enabled people to live even in flood prone areas, and over time population and economic assets have concentrated in these areas. In developing countries also, rapid land use change alters exposure and vulnerability to floods and consequently increases disaster risk. Flood hazard mapping is an essential step for any counter measures. It has various objectives including raising awareness of residents, finding effective evacuation routes and estimating potential damages through flood risk mapping. Depending on the objectives and data availability, there are also many possible approaches for hazard mapping including simulation basis, community basis and remote sensing basis. In addition to traditional paper-based hazard maps, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) promotes more interactive hazard mapping such as movable hazard map to demonstrate scenario simulations for risk communications and real-time hazard mapping for effective disaster responses and safe evacuations. This presentation first summarizes recent advancement of flood hazard mapping by focusing on Japanese experiences and other examples from Asian countries. Then it introduces a flood simulation tool suitable for hazard mapping at the river basin scale even in data limited regions. In the past few years, the tool has been practiced by local officers responsible for disaster management in Asian countries. Through the training activities of hazard mapping and risk assessment, we conduct comparative analysis to identify similarity and uniqueness of estimated economic damages depending on topographic and land use conditions.

Development of a carbonaceous selective absorber for solar thermal energy collection and process for its formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrison, John D.

1989-02-01

The main goal of the US Department of Energy supported part of this project is to develop information about controlling the complicated chemical processes involved in the formation of a carbonaceous selective absorber and learn what equipment will allow production of this absorber commercially. The work necessary to accomplish this goal is not yet complete. Formation of the carbonaceous selective absorber in the conveyor oven tried so far has been unsatisfactory, because the proper conditions for applying the carbonaceous coating in each conveyor oven fabricated, either have been difficult to obtain, or have been difficult to maintain over an extended period of time. A new conveyor oven is nearing completion which is expected to allow formation of the carbonaceous selective absorber on absorber tubes in a continuous operation over many days without the necessity of cleaning the conveyor oven or changing the thickness of the electroplated nickel catalyst to compensate for changes in the coating environment in the oven. Work under this project concerned with forming and sealing glass panels to test ideas on evacuated glass solar collector designs and production have been generally quite satisfactory. Delays in completion of the selective absorber work, has caused postponement of the fabrication of a small prototype evacuated glass solar collector panel. Preliminary cost estimates of the selective absorber and solar collector panel indicate that this collector system should be lower in cost than evacuated solar collectors now on the market.

Factors Associated with Maintaining the Mental Health of Employees after the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Findings from Companies Located in the Evacuation Area

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Yuriko; Goto, Aya; Yasumura, Seiji

2017-01-01

After the nuclear disaster in Fukushima on 11 March 2011, some businesses were permitted to continue operating even though they were located in the evacuation area designated by the Japanese government. The aim of this study was to examine differences in the mental health status, workplace, living environment, and lifestyle of employees in the evacuation and non-evacuation areas. We also investigated factors related to their mental health status. Data for this cross-sectional study were collected from the questionnaire responses of 647 employees at three medium-sized manufacturing companies in the evacuation and non-evacuation areas. Through a cross-tabulation analysis, employees who worked at companies in the evacuation areas showed an increase in the duration of overtime work, work burden, and commute time, and had experienced separation from family members due to the radiation disaster and perceived radiation risks. The results of a multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that, even in a harsh workplace and living environment, being younger, participating regularly in physical activity, having a social network (Lubben Social Network Scale-6 ≤ 12), laughing frequently, and feeling satisfied with one’s workplace and domestic life were significantly associated with maintaining a healthy mental health status after the disaster. These findings are applicable for workers’ health management measures after disasters. PMID:29301235

Factors Associated with Maintaining the Mental Health of Employees after the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Findings from Companies Located in the Evacuation Area.

PubMed

Orui, Masatsugu; Suzuki, Yuriko; Goto, Aya; Yasumura, Seiji

2017-12-31

After the nuclear disaster in Fukushima on 11 March 2011, some businesses were permitted to continue operating even though they were located in the evacuation area designated by the Japanese government. The aim of this study was to examine differences in the mental health status, workplace, living environment, and lifestyle of employees in the evacuation and non-evacuation areas. We also investigated factors related to their mental health status. Data for this cross-sectional study were collected from the questionnaire responses of 647 employees at three medium-sized manufacturing companies in the evacuation and non-evacuation areas. Through a cross-tabulation analysis, employees who worked at companies in the evacuation areas showed an increase in the duration of overtime work, work burden, and commute time, and had experienced separation from family members due to the radiation disaster and perceived radiation risks. The results of a multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that, even in a harsh workplace and living environment, being younger, participating regularly in physical activity, having a social network (Lubben Social Network Scale-6 ≤ 12), laughing frequently, and feeling satisfied with one's workplace and domestic life were significantly associated with maintaining a healthy mental health status after the disaster. These findings are applicable for workers' health management measures after disasters.

Road infrastructure resilience to tsunami in Cilegon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arini, Srikandi Wahyu; Sumabrata, Jachrizal

2017-11-01

Indonesia is vulnerable to natural disasters. The highest number of natural disaster occurs on the west side of Java Island with the tsunami as the most deadly. Cilegon, a densely populated city with high industrial activity is located on the west coast of Java Island with a gently sloping topography, hence it is vulnerable to tsunami. Simulations conducted by the National Disaster Management Authority indicates that earthquakes with epicenters in the Sunda strait will cause tsunamis which can sweep away the whole industrial area in one hour. The availability of evacuation routes which can accommodate the evacuation of large numbers of people within a short time is required. Road infrastructure resilience is essential to support the performance of the evacuation routes. Poor network resilience will reduce mobility and accessibility during the evacuation. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the impact of the earthquake-generated tsunami on the evacuation routes and to simulate and analyze the performance of existing evacuation routes in Cilegon. The limitations of the modeling approaches including the current and future challenges in evacuation transport research and its applications are also discussed. The conclusion from this study is accurate data source are needed to build a more representative model and predict the areas susceptible to tsunamis vulnerable areas and to construct cogent tsunami mitigation plans and actions for the most vulnerable areas.

Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

PubMed

Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

2015-01-01

Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both on evacuation needs and the critical elements of the infrastructure system that are needed to ensure effective response and recovery in the advent of flooding. This study shows that the coastal flooding will seriously affect the economy and employment. Extreme flooding events could affect 38 percent of the freeways, 44 percent of the highways, 69 percent of the arterial roads, and 40 percent of the local streets in the area examined. Approximately 80 percent of the economy and 76 percent of the total employment in the urban core of Honolulu is exposed to flooding. Evacuation modeling, shelter accessibility, and travel time to shelter analyses revealed that there is a significant shortage in sheltering options, as well as increases in travel times and distances as inundation depth increases. The findings are useful for evacuation and shelter planning for extreme coastal events, as well as for climate change adaptation planning in Honolulu. Recommendations for emergency responders as well as those interested in the integration of long-term SLR and low probability, high consequence coastal hazards are included. The study shows how to integrate travel demand modeling across multiple hazards and threats related to evacuating, sheltering, and disaster risk reduction.

Stakeholder-driven geospatial modeling for assessing tsunami vertical-evacuation strategies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, N. J.; Schmidtlein, M.; Schelling, J.; Jones, J.; Ng, P.

2012-12-01

Recent tsunami disasters, such as the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events, demonstrate the significant life loss that can occur from tsunamis. Many coastal communities in the world are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards that may inundate low-lying areas only minutes after a tsunami begins. Geospatial integration of demographic data and hazard zones has identified potential impacts on populations in communities susceptible to near-field tsunami threats. Pedestrian-evacuation models build on these geospatial analyses to determine if individuals in tsunami-prone areas will have sufficient time to reach high ground before tsunami-wave arrival. Areas where successful evacuations are unlikely may warrant vertical-evacuation (VE) strategies, such as berms or structures designed to aid evacuation. The decision of whether and where VE strategies are warranted is complex. Such decisions require an interdisciplinary understanding of tsunami hazards, land cover conditions, demography, community vulnerability, pedestrian-evacuation models, land-use and emergency-management policy, and decision science. Engagement with the at-risk population and local emergency managers in VE planning discussions is critical because resulting strategies include permanent structures within a community and their local ownership helps ensure long-term success. We present a summary of an interdisciplinary approach to assess VE options in communities along the southwest Washington coast (U.S.A.) that are threatened by near-field tsunami hazards generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Pedestrian-evacuation models based on an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms were merged with population data to forecast the distribution of at-risk individuals within several communities as a function of travel time to safe locations. A series of community-based workshops helped identify potential VE options in these communities, collectively known as "Project Safe Haven" at the State of Washington Emergency Management Division. Models of the influence of stakeholder-driven VE options identified changes in the type and distribution of at-risk individuals. Insights from VE use and performance as an aid to evacuations from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami helped to inform the meetings and the analysis. We developed geospatial tools to automate parts of the pedestrian-evacuation models to support the iterative process of developing VE options and forecasting changes in population exposure. Our summary presents the interdisciplinary effort to forecast population impacts from near-field tsunami threats and to develop effective VE strategies to minimize fatalities in future events.

Endoscopic Evacuation of Basal Ganglia Hematoma: Surgical Technique, Outcome, and Learning Curve.

PubMed

Ma, Lichao; Hou, Yuanzheng; Zhu, Ruyuan; Chen, Xiaolei

2017-05-01

Minimally invasive endoscopic hematoma evacuation is a promising treatment option for intracerebral hemorrhage. However, the technique still needs improvement. We report our clinical experience of using this technique to evacuate deep-seated basal ganglia hematomas. The frontal approach was used in most patients. The preoperative and postoperative hematoma volumes, Glasgow Coma Scale, hematoma evacuation rate, 30-day mortality, and long-term outcome defined by the modified Rankin Scale were analyzed retrospectively. The surgical duration per milliliter of clot (DPM) was calculated. The learning curve for this technique was determined based on the relation between the DPM and evacuation rate per the number of cases experienced. A total of 24 patients were enrolled. The evacuation rate was 87% ± 10%. The average Glasgow Coma Scale score recovered from 8 to 13 after surgery. Twenty-one patients had follow-up data. The follow-up time was 13 ± 6 months. The 30-day mortality after surgery was zero. Forty-eight percent of patients (10/21) achieved a favorable outcome. The DPM (P = 0.92) and evacuation rate (P = 0.64) did not change substantially with the number of cases experienced. Endoscopic port surgery for hematoma evacuation via the frontal approach is a safe surgical option for deep-seated basal ganglia hematomas. This technique is minimally invasive and may be helpful to provide better long-term outcomes for selected patients. For neurosurgeons, the learning curve for this technique is steep, which implies that the skills needed for our technique can be easily acquired. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the Department of Veterans Affairs: a conceptual model for understanding the evacuation of nursing homes.

PubMed

Dobalian, Aram; Claver, Maria; Fickel, Jacqueline J

2010-01-01

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita exposed significant flaws in US preparedness for catastrophic events and the nation's capacity to respond to them. These flaws were especially evident in the affected disaster areas' nursing homes, which house a particularly vulnerable population of frail older adults. Although evacuation of a healthcare facility is a key preparedness activity, there is limited research on factors that lead to effective evacuation. Our review of the literature on evacuation is focused on developing a conceptual framework to study future evacuations rather than as a comprehensive assessment of prior work. This paper summarizes what is known thus far about disaster response activities of nursing homes following natural and human-caused disasters, describes a conceptual model to guide future inquiry regarding this topic, and suggests future areas of research to further understand the decision-making process of nursing home facilitators regarding evacuating nursing home residents. To demonstrate the utility of the conceptual model and to provide guidance about effective practices and procedures, this paper focuses on the responses of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) nursing homes to the 2 hurricanes. Quarantelli's conceptual framework, as modified by Perry and Mushkatel, is useful in guiding the development of central hypotheses related to the decision-making that occurred in VA nursing homes and other healthcare facilities following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. However, we define evacuation somewhat differently to account for the fact that evacuation may, in some instances, be permanent. Thus, we propose modifying this framework to improve its applicability beyond preventive evacuation. We need to better understand how disaster plans can be adapted to meet the needs of frail elders and other residents in nursing homes. Moreover, we must address identified gaps in the scientific literature with respect to health outcomes by tracking outcomes over time. Information on health outcomes would allow administrators and others to more appropriately weigh the balance of risks and benefits associated with evacuation. Without this understanding of the relationship between evacuation and health outcomes, it is not possible to develop effective response plans that are tailored to meet the needs of nursing home residents. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsunami arrival time and available time for evacuation. Referring to the Aceh 2004 Tsunami, an estimated amount of people affected (dead/injured) of 21000 for Kabubaten Aceh Jaya and 85000 for Kab. Banda Aceh is in a comparable range with reported values of 19661 and 78417 (JICA 2005) respectively. Hence the established methodology provides reliable estimates of people affected and people's ability to reach a safe area. Based on the spatial explicit detection of e.g. high tsunami risk areas (and the assessed root causes therefore), specific disaster risk reduction and early warning strategies can be designed. For example additional installation of technical warning dissemination device, community based preparedness and awareness programmes (education), structural and non-structural measures (e.g. land use conversion, coastal engineering), effective evacuation, contingency and household recovery aid planning can be employed and/or optimized within high tsunami risk areas as a first priority. In the context of early warning, spatially distributed information like degree of expected hazard impact, exposure of critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, schools), potential people dead/injured depending on available response times, location of safe and shelter areas can be disseminated and used for decision making. Keywords: Tsunami risk, hazard and vulnerability assessment, early warning, tsunami mitigation and prevention, Indonesia

Human Response to Emergency Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, J.

2009-12-01

Almost every day people evacuate from their homes, businesses or other sites, even ships, in response to actual or predicted threats or hazards. Evacuation is the primary protective action utilized in large-scale emergencies such as hurricanes, floods, tornados, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or wildfires. Although often precautionary, protecting human lives by temporally relocating populations before or during times of threat remains a major emergency management strategy. One of the most formidable challenges facing emergency officials is evacuating residents for a fast-moving and largely unpredictable event such as a wildfire or a local tsunami. How to issue effective warnings to those at risk in time for residents to take appropriate action is an on-going problem. To do so, some communities have instituted advanced communications systems that include reverse telephone call-down systems or other alerting systems to notify at-risk residents of imminent threats. This presentation examines the effectiveness of using reverse telephone call-down systems for warning San Diego residents of wildfires in the October of 2007. This is the first systematic study conducted on this topic and is based on interviews with 1200 households in the evacuation areas.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2013-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a miniμm of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional downtime. The direct exposure of port trade value totals over 1.2 billion, while associated business interruption losses in the California economy could more than triple that value. Other estimated damages include 1.8 billion of property damage and 85 million for highway and railroad repairs. In total, we have estimated repair and replacement costs of almost 3 billion to California marinas, coastal properties and the POLA/LB. These damages could cause $6 billion of business interruption losses in the California economy, but that could be reduced by 80-90% with the implementation of business continuity or resilience strategies. This scenario provides the basis for improving preparedness, mitigation, and continuity planning for tsunamis, which can reduce damage and economic impacts and enhance recovery efforts. Two positive outcomes have already resulted from the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Emergency managers in areas where the scenario inundation exceeds the State's maximum inundation zone have been notified and evacuation plans have been updated appropriately. The State has also worked with NOAA's West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center to modify future message protocols to facilitate effective evacuations in California. While our specific results pertain to California, the lessons learned and our scenario approach can be applied to other regions.

The September 29, 2009 Earthquake and Tsunami in American Samoa: A Case Study of Household Evacuation Behavior and the Protective Action Decision Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apatu, E. J. I.; Gregg, C. E.; Lindell, M. K.; Sorensen, J.; Hillhouse, J.; Sorensen, B.

2012-04-01

In 2009, the islands of Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga were struck by an 8.1 magnitude earthquake that triggered a tsunami. The latter claimed an estimated 149, 34, and nine lives, respectively. Preparing persons to take protective action during an earthquake and tsunami is important to help save lives, but evacuation behavior is a dynamic process, which involves many factors such as recognition and interpretation of environmental cues, characteristics of the receiver, characteristics of official and informal warnings and a person's social context during the event. Compared to individualistic cultures like that in the USA, little is known about what factors affect household evacuation behavior in collectivist cultures. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) of Lindell and Perry (2004) is a theoretical framework that purports to explain human response to natural hazards. This broad behavioral hazard model has been tested in several settings in the United States. However, to date, the PADM has never been tested in a collectivist culture. Thus, this study will summarize interview findings from 300 American Samoan survivors to understand household evacuation behavior in response to the 2009 tsunami and earthquake that hit American Samoa. In addition, an investigation of how well the PADM explains evacuation action behavior will be reported. Findings from this study will be useful for public health emergency professionals in planning efforts for local tsunamis in coastal communities in the Pacific and around the world.

A Feeder-Bus Dispatch Planning Model for Emergency Evacuation in Urban Rail Transit Corridors

PubMed Central

Wang, Yun; Yan, Xuedong; Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Wenyi

2016-01-01

The mobility of modern metropolises strongly relies on urban rail transit (URT) systems, and such a heavy dependence causes that even minor service interruptions would make the URT systems unsustainable. This study aims at optimally dispatching the ground feeder-bus to coordinate with the urban rails’ operation for eliminating the effect of unexpected service interruptions in URT corridors. A feeder-bus dispatch planning model was proposed for the collaborative optimization of URT and feeder-bus cooperation under emergency situations and minimizing the total evacuation cost of the feeder-buses. To solve the model, a concept of dummy feeder-bus system is proposed to transform the non-linear model into traditional linear programming (ILP) model, i.e., traditional transportation problem. The case study of Line #2 of Nanjing URT in China was adopted to illustrate the model application and sensitivity analyses of the key variables. The modeling results show that as the evacuation time window increases, the total evacuation cost as well as the number of dispatched feeder-buses decrease, and the dispatched feeder-buses need operate for more times along the feeder-bus line. The number of dispatched feeder-buses does not show an obvious change with the increase of parking spot capacity and time window, indicating that simply increasing the parking spot capacity would cause huge waste for the emergent bus utilization. When the unbalanced evacuation demand exists between stations, the more feeder-buses are needed. The method of this study will contribute to improving transportation emergency management and resource allocation for URT systems. PMID:27676179

Anisotropic path modeling to assess pedestrian-evacuation potential from Cascadia-related tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.

2012-01-01

Recent disasters highlight the threat that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. When developing tsunami-education efforts and vertical-evacuation strategies, emergency managers need to understand how much time it could take for a coastal population to reach higher ground before tsunami waves arrive. To improve efforts to model pedestrian evacuations from tsunamis, we examine the sensitivity of least-cost-distance models to variations in modeling approaches, data resolutions, and travel-rate assumptions. We base our observations on the assumption that an anisotropic approach that uses path-distance algorithms and accounts for variations in land cover and directionality in slope is the most realistic of an actual evacuation landscape. We focus our efforts on the Long Beach Peninsula in Washington (USA), where a substantial residential and tourist population is threatened by near-field tsunamis related to a potential Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Results indicate thousands of people are located in areas where evacuations to higher ground will be difficult before arrival of the first tsunami wave. Deviations from anisotropic modeling assumptions substantially influence the amount of time likely needed to reach higher ground. Across the entire study, changes in resolution of elevation data has a greater impact on calculated travel times than changes in land-cover resolution. In particular areas, land-cover resolution had a substantial impact when travel-inhibiting waterways were not reflected in small-scale data. Changes in travel-speed parameters had a substantial impact also, suggesting the importance of public-health campaigns as a tsunami risk-reduction strategy.

SCALING AN URBAN EMERGENCY EVACUATION FRAMEWORK: CHALLENGES AND PRACTICES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karthik, Rajasekar; Lu, Wei

2014-01-01

Critical infrastructure disruption, caused by severe weather events, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc., has significant impacts on urban transportation systems. We built a computational framework to simulate urban transportation systems under critical infrastructure disruption in order to aid real-time emergency evacuation. This framework will use large scale datasets to provide a scalable tool for emergency planning and management. Our framework, World-Wide Emergency Evacuation (WWEE), integrates population distribution and urban infrastructure networks to model travel demand in emergency situations at global level. Also, a computational model of agent-based traffic simulation is used to provide an optimal evacuation plan for traffic operationmore » purpose [1]. In addition, our framework provides a web-based high resolution visualization tool for emergency evacuation modelers and practitioners. We have successfully tested our framework with scenarios in both United States (Alexandria, VA) and Europe (Berlin, Germany) [2]. However, there are still some major drawbacks for scaling this framework to handle big data workloads in real time. On our back-end, lack of proper infrastructure limits us in ability to process large amounts of data, run the simulation efficiently and quickly, and provide fast retrieval and serving of data. On the front-end, the visualization performance of microscopic evacuation results is still not efficient enough due to high volume data communication between server and client. We are addressing these drawbacks by using cloud computing and next-generation web technologies, namely Node.js, NoSQL, WebGL, Open Layers 3 and HTML5 technologies. We will describe briefly about each one and how we are using and leveraging these technologies to provide an efficient tool for emergency management organizations. Our early experimentation demonstrates that using above technologies is a promising approach to build a scalable and high performance urban emergency evacuation framework that can improve traffic mobility and safety under critical infrastructure disruption in today s socially connected world.« less

Evacuating People and Their Pets: Older Floridians' Need for and Proximity to Pet-Friendly Shelters.

PubMed

Douglas, Rachel; Kocatepe, Ayberk; Barrett, Anne E; Ozguven, Eren Erman; Gumber, Clayton

2017-10-04

Pets influence evacuation decisions, but little is known about pet-friendly emergency shelters' availability or older adults' need for them. Our study addresses this issue, focusing on the most densely populated area of Florida (Miami-Dade)-the state with the oldest population and greatest hurricane susceptibility. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology to identify the shortest paths to pet-friendly shelters, based on distance and congested and uncongested travel times-taking into account the older population's spatial distribution. Logistic regression models using the 2013 American Housing Survey's Disaster Planning Module examine anticipated shelter use as a function of pet ownership and requiring pet evacuation assistance. Thirty-four percent of older adults in the Miami-Dade area have pets-35% of whom report needing pet evacuation assistance. However, GIS accessibility measures show that travel time factors are likely to impede older adults' use of the area's few pet-friendly shelters. Logistic regression results reveal that pet owners are less likely to report anticipating shelter use; however, the opposite holds for pet owners reporting they would need help evacuating their pets-they anticipate using shelters. High pet shelter need coupled with low availability exacerbates older adults' heightened vulnerability during Florida's hurricane season. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling and simulation of evacuation behavior using fuzzy logic in a goal finding application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sharad; Ogunlana, Kola; Sree, Swetha

2016-05-01

Modeling and simulation has been widely used as a training and educational tool for depicting different evacuation strategies and damage control decisions during evacuation. However, there are few simulation environments that can include human behavior with low to high levels of fidelity. It is well known that crowd stampede induced by panic leads to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Our proposed goal finding application can be used to model situations that are difficult to test in real-life due to safety considerations. It is able to include agent characteristics and behaviors. Findings of this model are very encouraging as agents are able to assume various roles to utilize fuzzy logic on the way to reaching their goals. Fuzzy logic is used to model stress, panic and the uncertainty of emotions. The fuzzy rules link these parts together while feeding into behavioral rules. The contributions of this paper lies in our approach of utilizing fuzzy logic to show learning and adaptive behavior of agents in a goal finding application. The proposed application will aid in running multiple evacuation drills for what-if scenarios by incorporating human behavioral characteristics that can scale from a room to building. Our results show that the inclusion of fuzzy attributes made the evacuation time of the agents closer to the real time drills.

Linear electric field time-of-flight ion mass spectrometer

DOEpatents

Funsten, Herbert O [Los Alamos, NM; Feldman, William C [Los Alamos, NM

2008-06-10

A linear electric field ion mass spectrometer having an evacuated enclosure with means for generating a linear electric field located in the evacuated enclosure and means for injecting a sample material into the linear electric field. A source of pulsed ionizing radiation injects ionizing radiation into the linear electric field to ionize atoms or molecules of the sample material, and timing means determine the time elapsed between ionization of atoms or molecules and arrival of an ion out of the ionized atoms or molecules at a predetermined position.

Continuous time-of-flight ion mass spectrometer

DOEpatents

Funsten, Herbert O.; Feldman, William C.

2004-10-19

A continuous time-of-flight mass spectrometer having an evacuated enclosure with means for generating an electric field located in the evacuated enclosure and means for injecting a sample material into the electric field. A source of continuous ionizing radiation injects ionizing radiation into the electric field to ionize atoms or molecules of the sample material, and timing means determine the time elapsed between arrival of a secondary electron out of said ionized atoms or molecules at a first predetermined location and arrival of a sample ion out of said ionized atoms or molecules at a second predetermined location.

An evaluation of early countermeasures to reduce the risk of internal radiation exposure after the Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan.

PubMed

Nomura, Shuhei; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Gilmour, Stuart; Hayano, Ryugo S; Watanabe, Yuni N; Kami, Masahiro; Kanazawa, Yukio; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi

2016-05-01

After a radiation-release incident, intake of radionuclides in the initial stage immediately following the incident may be the major contributor to total internal radiation exposure for individuals in affected areas. However, evaluation of early internal contamination risk is greatly lacking. This study assessed the relationship between initial stage evacuation/indoor sheltering and internal radiation contamination levels 4 months after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan and estimated potential pathways of the contamination. The study population comprised 525 participants in the internal radiation screening program at Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital, 23 km north of the Fukushima nuclear plant. The analysed dataset included the results of a screening performed in July 2011, 4 months after the incident, and of a questionnaire on early-incident response behaviours, such as sheltering indoors and evacuations, completed by participants. Association between such early countermeasures and internal contamination levels of cesium-134 were assessed using Tobit multiple regression analyses. Our study shows that individuals who evacuated to areas outside Fukushima Prefecture had similar contamination levels of cesium-134 to individuals who stayed in Fukushima (relative risk: 0.86; 95% confidence interval: 0.74-0.99). Time spent outdoors had no significant relationship with contamination levels. The effects of inhalation from radiological plumes released from the nuclear plant on total internal radiation contamination might be so low as to be undetectable by the whole-body counting unit used to examine participants. Given the apparent limited effectiveness of evacuation and indoor sheltering on internal contamination, the decision to implement such early responses to a radiation-release incident should be made by carefully balancing their potential benefits and health risks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[Association between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity in Great East Japan Earthquake evacuees: The Fukushima Health Management Survey].

PubMed

Nagai, Masato; Ohira, Tetsuya; Yasumura, Seiji; Takahashi, Hideto; Yuki, Michiko; Nakano, Hironori; Wen, Zhang; Yabe, Hirooki; Ohtsuru, Akira; Maeda, Masaharu; Takase, Kanae

2016-01-01

Objectives: Prevalence of life-style disease has increased dramatically in evacuees due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. One reason may be that physical activity level decreased from life environment changes due to evacuation. However, associations between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity have not been studied. We examined this association in Fukushima residents who participated in the Fukushima Health Management Survey. Methods: In this study, 37,843 evacuees from 13 municipal evacuation zones from the nuclear-power accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, born before April 1, 1995, were included in the analysis. Evacuation condition was defined by disaster living place (13 zones), evacuation place (inside or outside the prefecture), and current living status (evacuation shelter or temporary housing, rental housing/ apartment, and relative's home or own home). Habitual physical activity was defined from self-administered questionnaires as participants who responded "almost every day" and "2-4 times/week" of regular exercise. In the analysis, habitual physical activity prevalence was aggregated by gender and variables (living place in the disaster, evacuation place, and current living status). Prevalence was adjusted for age, disaster living place, evacuation place, and current living status by standard analysis of covariance methods. Results: Adjusted prevalences of habitual physical activity were: men, 27.9-46.5%; women, 27.0-43.7% in each disaster living place. The differences were 18.6% point in men and 16.7% point in women. For evacuation place, physical activity outside the prefecture for men (37.7%) and inside the prefecture for women (32.1%) were higher, but those differences were only 2.2% point and 1.8% point in men and women, respectively. For current living status, physical activity of those in rental housing/ apartment was the lowest; evacuation shelter or temporary housing was the highest in both genders (men: 38.9%, women: 36.7%). Compared with residents in evacuation shelter or temporary housing, those in rental housing/apartment were 5.4% point and 7.1% point lower and those in relative's home or own home were 2.0% point and 4.2% point lower in men and women. Conclusion: Habitual physical activity in residents who lived in 13 municipal evacuation zone differed by disaster living place and current living status, while it was similar regardless of placement in the prefecture. In particular, prevalence was the lowest in participants who lived in rental housing/ apartment. We need to plan and perform additional life-style disease prevention strategies for participants who become isolated.

Flood-Inundation Maps for the North River in Colrain, Charlemont, and Shelburne, Massachusetts, From the Confluence of the East and West Branch North Rivers to the Deerfield River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, Gardner C.; Lombard, Pamela J.; Dudley, Robert W.

2015-10-27

The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near-real-time stage from the U.S. Geological Survey North River at Shattuckville, MA streamgage can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events. Introduction

Assessment of Risk Factors of Intrauterine Adhesions in Patients With Induced Abortion and the Curative Effect of Hysteroscopic Surgery.

PubMed

Mo, Xiaoliang; Qin, Guirong; Zhou, Zhoulin; Jiang, Xiaoli

2017-10-03

To explore the risk factors for intrauterine adhesions in patients with artificial abortion and clinical efficacy of hysteroscopic dissection. 1500 patients undergoing artificial abortion between January 2014 and June 2015 were enrolled into this study. The patients were divided into two groups with or without intrauterine adhesions. Univariate and Multiple logistic regression were conducted to assess the effects of multiple factors on the development of intrauterine adhesions following induced abortion. The incidence rate for intrauterine adhesions following induced abortion is 17.0%. Univariate showed that preoperative inflammation, multiple pregnancies and suction evacuation time are the influence risk factors of intrauterine adhesions. Multiple logistic regression demonstrates that multiple pregnancies, high intrauterine negative pressure, and long suction evacuation time are independent risk factors for the development of intrauterine adhesions following induced abortion. Additionally, intrauterine adhesions were observed in 105 mild, 80 moderate, and 70 severe cases. The cure rates for these three categories of intrauterine adhesions by hysteroscopic surgery were 100.0%, 93.8%, and 85.7%, respectively. Multiple pregnancies, high negative pressure suction evacuation and long suction evacuation time are independent risk factors for the development of intrauterine adhesions following induced abortions. Hysteroscopic surgery substantially improves the clinical outcomes of intrauterine adhesions.

[The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

PubMed

Grosche, B

2013-04-01

The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

2016-04-01

Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

Facilitating emergency hospital evacuation through uniform discharge criteria.

PubMed

Sandra, Keret; Meital, Nahari; Ofer, Merin; Limor, Aharonson-Daniel; Sara, Goldberg; Bruria, Adini

2017-05-01

Though hospitals' operational continuity is crucial, full institutional evacuation may at times be unavoidable. The study's objective was to establish criteria for discharge of patients during complete emergency evacuation and compare scope of patients suitable for discharge pre/post implementation of criteria. Standards for patient discharge during an evacuation were developed based on literature and disaster managers. The standards were reviewed in a two-round Delphi process. All hospitals in Israel were requested to identify inpatients' that could be released home during institutional evacuation. Potential discharges were compared in 2013-2014, before and after formulation of discharge criteria. Consensus exceeding 80% was obtained for four out of five criteria after two Delphi cycles. Average projected discharge rate before and after formulation of criteria was 34.2% and 42.9%, respectively (p<0.001). Variance in potential dischargeable patients was 31-fold less in 2014 than in 2013 (MST=8,452 versus MST=264,366, respectively; p<0.001). Differences were found between small, medium and large hospitals in mean rate of dischargeable patients: 52.1%, 41.5% and 42.2%, respectively (p=0.001). The study's findings enable to forecast the extent of patients that may be released home during full emergency evacuation of a hospital; thereby facilitating preparedness of contingency plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Complementary methods to plan pedestrian evacuation of the French Riviera's beaches in case of tsunami threat: graph- and multi-agent-based modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahal, A.; Leone, F.; Péroche, M.

2013-07-01

Small amplitude tsunamis have impacted the French Mediterranean shore (French Riviera) in the past centuries. Some caused casualties; others only generated economic losses. While the North Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system is being tested and is almost operational, no awareness and preparedness measure is being implemented at a local scale. Evacuation is to be considered along the French Riviera, but no plan exists within communities. We show that various approaches can provide local stakeholders with evacuation capacities assessments to develop adapted evacuation plans through the case study of the Cannes-Antibes region. The complementarity between large- and small-scale approaches is demonstrated with the use of macro-simulators (graph-based) and micro-simulators (multi-agent-based) to select shelter points and choose evacuation routes for pedestrians located on the beach. The first one allows automatically selecting shelter points and measuring and mapping their accessibility. The second one shows potential congestion issues during pedestrian evacuations, and provides leads for the improvement of urban environment. Temporal accessibility to shelters is compared to potential local and distal tsunami travel times, showing a 40 min deficit for an adequate crisis management in the first scenario, and a 30 min surplus for the second one.

Evacuation of institutionalized and specialized populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogt, B.M.

The purpose of this research was to assess the needs of organizations caring for institutional and specialized populations when faced with a threat or hazard requiring an evacuation. Individuals within specialized populations are unlike other victims of disaster because of their inherent dependency on organizational care givers and require different management strategies on the part of organizations and agencies in an evacuation. The research sought to identify those aspects of coping strategies that have been used successfully to manage an emergency evacuation. To identify special populations that have evacuated from institutions and similar facilities over a four-year period, a computerizedmore » search was conducted of media accounts describing such events. The search yielded a total of 1024 accounts from which four major subgroups were identified: nursing homes and related care facilities, hospitals, educational institutions, and correctional facilities. A miscellaneous group including housing for the elderly, apartments and other building complexes, workplaces and factories, public facilities, and places occupied by transient populations, such as transportation units and recreational facilities, could be used for future study. Among the factors found to affect evacuations were the extent of organizational resources (such as the number of staff or other individuals available at the time of the event), the type and number of clientele, and such community characteristics as population density. The study focuses on selected organizational characteristics of health care facilities (nursing homes and related care facilities and hospitals) which have recently experienced either a partial or complete evacuation of their facilities. 165 refs., 13 tabs.« less

Evacuation of a Tertiary Neonatal Centre: Lessons from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Iwata, Osuke; Kawase, Akihiko; Iwai, Masanori; Wada, Kazuko

2017-01-01

Background Newborn infants hospitalised in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are vulnerable to natural disasters. However, publications on evacuation from NICUs are sparse. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes caused serious damage to Kumamoto City Hospital and its level III regional core NICU. Local/neighbour NICU teams and the disaster-communication team of a neonatal academic society cooperated to evacuate 38 newborn infants from the ward. Objective The aim of this paper was to highlight potential key factors to improve emergency NICU evacuation and coordination of hospital transportation following natural disasters. Methods Background variables including clinical risk scores and timing/destination of transportation were compared between infants, who subsequently were transferred to destinations outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, and their peers. Results All but 1 of the infants were successfully evacuated from their NICU within 8 h. One very-low-birth-weight infant developed moderate hypothermia following transportation. Fourteen infants were transferred to NICUs outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, which was associated with the diagnosis of congenital heart disease, dependence on respiratory support, higher risk scores, and longer elapsed time from the decision to departure. There was difficulty in arranging helicopter transportation because the coordination office of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team had requisitioned most air/ground ambulances and only helped arrange ground transportations for 13 low-risk infants. Transportation for all 10 high-risk infants (risk scores greater than or equal to the upper quartile) was arranged by local/neighbour NICUs. Conclusions Although the overall evacuation process was satisfactory, potential risks of relying on the adult-based emergency transportation system were highlighted. A better system needs to be developed urgently to put appropriate priority on vulnerable infants. PMID:28437783

Local hemostatic matrix for endoscope-assisted removal of intracerebral hemorrhage is safe and effective.

PubMed

Luh, Hui-Tzung; Huang, Abel Po-Hao; Yang, Shih-Hung; Chen, Chien-Ming; Cho, Der-Yang; Chen, Chun-Chung; Kuo, Lu-Ting; Li, Chieh-Hsun; Wang, Kuo-Chuan; Tseng, Wei-Lung; Hsing, Ming-Tai; Yang, Bing-Shiang; Lai, Dar-Ming; Tsai, Jui-Chang

2018-01-01

Minimally invasive endoscope-assisted (MIE) evacuation of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is simple and effective, but the limited working space may hinder meticulous hemostasis and might lead to rebleeding. Management of intraoperative hemorrhage is therefore a critical issue of this study. This study presents experience in the treatment of patients with various types of ICH by MIE evacuation followed by direct local injection of FloSeal Hemostatic Matrix (Baxter Healthcare Corp, Fremont, CA, USA) for hemostasis. The retrospective nonrandomized clinical and radiology-based analysis enrolled 42 patients treated with MIE evacuation of ICH followed by direct local injection of FloSeal Hemostatic Matrix. Rebleeding, morbidity, and mortality were the primary endpoints. The percentage of hematoma evacuated was calculated from the pre- and postoperative brain computed tomography (CT) scans. Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) was evaluated at 6 months postoperatively. Forty-two ICH patients were included in this study, among these, 23 patients were putaminal hemorrhage, 16 were thalamic ICH, and the other three were subcortical type. Surgery-related mortality was 2.4%. The average percentage of hematoma evacuated was 80.8%, and the rebleeding rate was 4.8%. The mean operative time was 102.7 minutes and the average blood loss was 84.9 mL. The mean postoperative GOSE score was 4.55 at 6-months' follow-up. This study shows that local application of FloSeal Hemostatic Matrix is safe and effective for hemostasis during MIE evacuation of ICH. In our experience, this shortens the operation time, especially in cases with intraoperative bleeding. A large, prospective, randomized trial is needed to confirm the findings. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evacuation of a Tertiary Neonatal Centre: Lessons from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes.

PubMed

Iwata, Osuke; Kawase, Akihiko; Iwai, Masanori; Wada, Kazuko

2017-01-01

Newborn infants hospitalised in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are vulnerable to natural disasters. However, publications on evacuation from NICUs are sparse. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes caused serious damage to Kumamoto City Hospital and its level III regional core NICU. Local/neighbour NICU teams and the disaster-communication team of a neonatal academic society cooperated to evacuate 38 newborn infants from the ward. The aim of this paper was to highlight potential key factors to improve emergency NICU evacuation and coordination of hospital transportation following natural disasters. Background variables including clinical risk scores and timing/destination of transportation were compared between infants, who subsequently were transferred to destinations outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, and their peers. All but 1 of the infants were successfully evacuated from their NICU within 8 h. One very-low-birth-weight infant developed moderate hypothermia following transportation. Fourteen infants were transferred to NICUs outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, which was associated with the diagnosis of congenital heart disease, dependence on respiratory support, higher risk scores, and longer elapsed time from the decision to departure. There was difficulty in arranging helicopter transportation because the coordination office of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team had requisitioned most air/ground ambulances and only helped arrange ground transportations for 13 low-risk infants. Transportation for all 10 high-risk infants (risk scores greater than or equal to the upper quartile) was arranged by local/neighbour NICUs. Although the overall evacuation process was satisfactory, potential risks of relying on the adult-based emergency transportation system were highlighted. A better system needs to be developed urgently to put appropriate priority on vulnerable infants. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Pedestrian collective motion in competitive room evacuation.

PubMed

Garcimartín, A; Pastor, J M; Martín-Gómez, C; Parisi, D; Zuriguel, I

2017-09-07

When a sizable number of people evacuate a room, if the door is not large enough, an accumulation of pedestrians in front of the exit may take place. This is the cause of emerging collective phenomena where the density is believed to be the key variable determining the pedestrian dynamics. Here, we show that when sustained contact among the individuals exists, density is not enough to describe the evacuation, and propose that at least another variable -such as the kinetic stress- is required. We recorded evacuation drills with different degrees of competitiveness where the individuals are allowed to moderately push each other in their way out. We obtain the density, velocity and kinetic stress fields over time, showing that competitiveness strongly affects them and evidencing patterns which have been never observed in previous (low pressure) evacuation experiments. For the highest competitiveness scenario, we detect the development of sudden collective motions. These movements are related to a notable increase of the kinetic stress and a reduction of the velocity towards the door, but do not depend on the density.

The deadliest storm of the 20th century striking Portugal: Flood impacts and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Catarina; Pereira, Susana S.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Zêzere, José L.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2016-10-01

The deadliest storm affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities. This work aims to assess the most relevant aspects of this episode. This includes describing the associated meteorological conditions and key hydrological characterisation such as the level of exceptionality of the observed precipitation at different temporal scales, or the estimation of peak discharge values in 20 small river catchments affected. Additionally, from a human impact perspective we provide a full account of all the main socio-economic impacts, particularly the numbers and location of victims (dead, injured, homeless and evacuated). Based on the sub-daily time series of a representative station, and its Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, we have found that the exceptionality of this rainfall event is particularly linked to rainfall intensities ranging in duration from 4 to 9 h compatible with return periods of 100-years or more. This range of time scale which are similar to the estimated concentration time values of the hydrographic basins affected by the flash flood event. From a meteorological perspective, this episode was characterised by strong convection at the regional scale, fuelled by high availability of moisture over the Lisbon region associated with a low pressure system centered near Lisbon that favoured the convective instability. Most victims were sleeping or were caught by surprise at home in the small river catchments around the main Lisbon metropolitan area. The majority of people who died or who were severely affected by the flood lived in degraded housing conditions often raised in a clandestine way, occupying flood plains near the stream beds. This level of destruction observed at the time is in stark contrast to what was observed in subsequent episodes of similar amplitude. In particular, since 1967 the Lisbon area, was struck by two comparable intense precipitation events in 1983 and 2008 but generating considerably fewer deaths and evacuated people.

Successful hand replantation in a seafarer after long-distance helicopter evacuation. A case report.

PubMed

Fernandez-Palacios, Javier; Duque, Orlando Garcia; Benitez, Ruben Alvarado; Bolanos, Luis Fabelo; Calderin, Jose Guterrez

2009-01-01

After sustaining a clean-cut mid-carpal hand amputation on a tanker 120 miles north of Lanzarote, a 28- -year-old seafarer was evacuated by helicopter to a microsurgical unit in Gran Canaria. The amputated hand was cooled according to precise instructions. The 6-hour flight time included two refuelling stops and transfer time. The hand had been revascularized thirteen hours after the accident and was still well circulated at repatriation 3 weeks later.

Suction evacuation of hemothorax: A prospective study.

PubMed

Savage, Stephanie A; Cibulas, George A; Ward, Tyler A; Davis, Corinne A; Croce, Martin A; Zarzaur, Ben L

2016-07-01

Although tube thoracostomy is a common procedure after thoracic trauma, incomplete evacuation of fluid places the patient at risk for retained hemothorax. As little as 300 to 500 cm of blood may result in the need for an additional thoracostomy tube or, in more severe cases, lung entrapment and empyema. We hypothesized that suction evacuation of the thoracic cavity before tube placement would decrease the incidence of late complications. Patients requiring tube thoracostomy within 96 hours of admission were prospectively identified and underwent suction evacuation of the pleural space (SEPS) before tube placement. These patients were compared to historical controls without suction evacuation. Demographics, admission vital signs, laboratory values, details of chest tube placement, and outcomes were collected on all patients. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare outcomes between groups. A total of 199 patients were identified, consisting of 100 retrospective controls and 99 SEPS patients. There were no differences in age, sex, admission injury severity score or chest abbreviated injury score, admission laboratory values or vital signs, or hospital length of stay. Mean (SD) volume of hemothorax in SEPS patients was 220 (297) cm; with only 48% having a volume greater than 100 cm at the time of tube placement. Three patients developed empyema, and 19 demonstrated retained blood; there was no difference between SEPS and control patients. Suction evacuation of the pleural space was significantly protective against recurrent pneumothorax after chest tube removal (odds ratio, 0.332; 95% confidence interval, 0.148-0.745). Preemptive suction evacuation of the thoracic cavity did not have a significant impact on subsequent development of retained hemothorax or empyema. Suction evacuation of the pleural space significantly decreased incidence of recurrent pneumothorax after thoracostomy removal. Although the mechanism is unclear, such a benefit may make this simple procedure worthwhile. A larger sample size is required for validation and to determine if preemptive thoracic evacuation has a clinical benefit. Therapeutic/care management study, level IV.

Emergency assessment of postwildfire debris-flow hazards for the 2011 Motor Fire, Sierra and Stanislaus National Forests, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Michael, John A.

2011-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2011 Motor fire in the Sierra and Stanislaus National Forests, Calif. Statistical-empirical models are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may be produced from burned drainage basins as a function of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and soil physical properties, and in response to a 30-minute-duration, 10-year-recurrence rainstorm. Debris-flow probability and volume estimates are then combined to form a relative hazard ranking for each basin. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two years following the fire.

Research on evacuation in the subway station in China based on the Combined Social Force Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Jiahui; Sui, Jie; Yu, Hua

2014-01-01

With the increasing number of subway stations, more and more attention has been paid to their emergency evacuation, as it plays an important part in urban emergency management. The present paper puts forward a method of crowd evacuation simulation for bioterrorism in subway station environment using the basic theory of the Social Force Model combined with the Gaussian Puff Model. A Combined Social Force Model is developed which is suitable for a real situation where there is a sudden toxic gas event. The model can also be used to demonstrate some individual behaviors in evacuation, such as competitive, grouping and herding. At last a series of experiments are conducted and the results are as follows. (1) When there is a toxic gas terroristic attack in subway stations, the influence on passengers varies according to the position that the gas source lies in and the numbers of gas sources. (2) More casualties will occur if managers do not detect the toxic gas danger and inform passengers about it. (3) The larger the wind speed is, the smaller the number of injured passengers will be. With the experiments, the number of people affected and other parameters like gas concentration can be estimated, which could support rapid and efficient emergency decisions.

Modified two-layer social force model for emergency earthquake evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao; Liu, Hong; Qin, Xin; Liu, Baoxi

2018-02-01

Studies of crowd behavior with related research on computer simulation provide an effective basis for architectural design and effective crowd management. Based on low-density group organization patterns, a modified two-layer social force model is proposed in this paper to simulate and reproduce a group gathering process. First, this paper studies evacuation videos from the Luan'xian earthquake in 2012, and extends the study of group organization patterns to a higher density. Furthermore, taking full advantage of the strength in crowd gathering simulations, a new method on grouping and guidance is proposed while using crowd dynamics. Second, a real-life grouping situation in earthquake evacuation is simulated and reproduced. Comparing with the fundamental social force model and existing guided crowd model, the modified model reduces congestion time and truly reflects group behaviors. Furthermore, the experiment result also shows that a stable group pattern and a suitable leader could decrease collision and allow a safer evacuation process.

Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants.

PubMed

Reniers, G L L; Audenaert, A; Pauwels, N; Soudan, K

2011-02-15

This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Street Lighting Infrastructure Assessment Using Discriminant and GIS Method on Mount Merapi Evacuation Road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izdihar, R. P.; Maryono, M.; Widjonarko, W.; Rahayu, S.

2018-02-01

This research aims to assess street lighting infrastructure in rural-urban of Mount Merapi Evacuation road. Three evacuation road/corridor; Mriyan-Boyolali, Wonodoyo-Boyolali and Samiran-Boyolali are selected as case study. By using discriminant this study examine 6 variables namely type of lamp, physical component, height, time, power and cons consumption. In addition this study also using GIS method to assessing geographical feature as of previous result. According to the discriminant analysis, the characteristic of street lighting could be distinguished as two characteristic, while from the GIS assessment, the study found three characteristic of geographical street lighting feature.

Superstorm Sandy's forgotten patient: a lesson in emergency preparedness in severe obesity.

PubMed

Ramme, Austin J; Vira, Shaleen; McLaurin, Toni M

2015-02-01

Superstorm Sandy gained national attention in late 2012 after its impact on the Northeastern US. In New York City, thousands of residents lost power, and multiple hospitals were forced to evacuate. Bellevue Hospital Center (BHC), the nation's oldest public hospital, was forced to close for the first time in over 275 years. Two patients remained in BHC three days after the primary evacuation without water service and minimal power. Herein, we describe the challenges associated with evacuating a severely obese patient. Obesity management is challenging and at an institutional level must be addressed in emergency preparedness plans. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

Enhanced casualty care from a Global Military Orthopaedic Teleconsultation Program.

PubMed

Waterman, Brian R; Laughlin, Matthew D; Belmont, Philip J; Schoenfeld, Andrew J; Pallis, Mark P

2014-11-01

Since its advent, telemedicine has facilitated access to subspecialty medical care for the treatment of patients in remote and austere settings. The United States military introduced a formal orthopaedic teleconsultation system in 2007, but few reports have explored its scope of practice and efficacy, particularly in a deployed environment during a time of conflict. All teleconsultations placed to the orthopaedic service between April 2009 and December 2012 were obtained and retrospectively reviewed. Case files were abstracted and anatomical location of injury, type of injury, origin of consult (country or Navy Afloat), branch of service, and treatment recommendations, were recorded for descriptive analysis. The final result of the consult was also determined, with service members transported from the combat theatre or deployment location defined as medically evacuated. Instances where teleconsultations averted a medical evacuation were also documented as a separate outcome. Over a 32-month period, 597 orthopaedic teleconsultations were placed, with the majority derived from Army (46%) and Navy (32%) personnel deployed in Afghanistan, Iraq, or with Navy Afloat. Approximately 51% of consults involved the upper extremity, including 197 hand injuries, followed by lower extremity (37%) and spine (7.8%) complaints. Fractures comprised over half of all injuries, with the hand and foot most commonly affected. The average response time for teleconsultations was 7.54h. A total of 56 service members required immediate evacuation for further orthopaedic management, while at least 26 medical evacuations were prevented due to the teleconsultation system. The teleconsultation system promotes early access to orthopaedic subspecialty care in a resource-limited, deployed military setting. The telemedicine network also appears to mitigate unnecessary aeromedical evacuations, reducing healthcare costs, lost duty time, and treatment delays. These findings have important meaning for the future of telemedicine in both the military and civilian setting. IV. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Appendicostomy irrigation for facilitating colonic evacuation in colostomy patients. Preliminary report.

PubMed

Kotanagi, H; Koyama, K; Sato, Y; Takahashi, K

1998-08-01

A method for bowel irrigation through an appendicostomy (antegrade colonic enema) for patients with a left colostomy is described. The appendicostomy is easily constructed without morbidity. Irrigation through the appendicostomy is performed with minimum equipment, uses a small volume of irrigation water, and takes a relatively short time. This may improve colonic evacuation in patients with left colostomy.

Near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis of the central European flood in June 2013 in Germany: Impact and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Bessel, Tina; Möhrle, Stella; Dittrich, André; Schröter, Kai; Mühr, Bernhard; Elmer, Florian; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Trieselmann, Werner; Kunz, Michael

2014-05-01

Within its current research activity on near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA), researchers from the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) aim to identify major risk drivers and to understand the root causes of disaster and infer the implications for disaster mitigation. A key component of this activity is the development of rapid assessment tools which allow for a science based estimate of disaster impacts. The central European flood in June 2013 caused in Germany severe damage to buildings, infrastructure and agricultural lands and has had a great impact on people, transportation and the economy. In many areas thousands of people were evacuated. Electrical grid and local water supply utilities failed during the floods. Furthermore, traffic was disrupted in the interregional transportation network including federal highways and long distance railways. CEDIM analysed the impact and management of the flood event within an FDA activity. An analysis on the amount and spatial distribution of flood-related Twitter messages in Germany revealed a high interest in the flood in the social media. Furthermore, an analysis of the resilience of selected affected areas in Germany has been carried out to assess the impact of the flood on the district level. The resilience indicator is based on social, economic and institutional indicators which are supplemented with information on the number of people evacuated and transportation disruptions. Combined with the magnitude of the event, an index is calculated that allows for a rapid initial but preliminary estimate of the flood impact. Results show high resilience of the administrative districts along the Danube while heavy impacts are seen along the Mulde and Elbe.

Providing emergency medical care to offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico using telemedicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouabene, Anis

2002-08-01

UTMB is developing with industrial partners the "24/7 telemedicine triage project" to provide emergency medical care to offshore oil and gas rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil and gas industry is second only to the US department of defense in the number of employees stationed in remote areas. Providing medical care to such populations is logistically complex and expensive. In addition, emergency evacuation is often time-consuming and poses risks for both patients and medical crews. By utilizing high-resolution videoconferencing technology, through a satellite communication, patient visits will be conducted in real time and will provide more informed decisions about the need for more extensive treatment, thereby reducing unnecessary evacuations. In addition, patients who require evacuation will receive a higher standard of care while waiting for transport to a medical facility. UTMB physicians report that 39% of all patients from offshore facilities treated in the emergency department, could have been successfully treated through telemedicine without being evacuated to a hospital. The telemedicine project will employ standard procedures for medical triage, in which patients are directed to appropriate medical experts based on their symptoms or type of injury.

Means of escape provisions and evacuation simulation of public building in Malaysia and Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Taib, Nooriati; Ying, Choo Siew

2017-10-01

The Uniform Building By-law 1984 of Malaysia is the legal document governing fire safety requirements in buildings. Its prescriptive nature has made the requirements out dated from the viewpoint of current performance based approach in most developed countries. The means of escape provisions is a critical requirement to safeguard occupants' safety in fire especially in public buildings. As stipulated in the UBBL 1984, the means of escape provisions includes sufficient escape routes, travel distance, protection of escape routes, etc. designated as means to allow occupants to escape within a safe period of time. This research aims at investigating the effectiveness of those provisions in public buildings during evacuation process involving massive crowd during emergencies. This research includes a scenario-based study on evacuation processes using two software i.e. PyroSim, a crowd modelling software to conduct smoke study and Pathfinder to stimulate evacuation model of building in Malaysia and Singapore as comparative study. The results show that the buildings used as case study were designed according to Malaysian UBBL 1984 and Singapore Firecode, 2013 respectively provide relative safe means of escape. The simulations of fire and smoke and coupled with simulation of evacuation have demonstrated that although there are adequate exits designated according to fire requirements, the impact of the geometry of atriums on the behavior of fire and smoke have significant effect on escape time especially for unfamiliar user of the premises.

[Roles and functions of military flight nursing: aeromedical evacuation].

PubMed

Lee, Chun-Lan; Hsiao, Yun-Chien; Chen, Chao-Yen

2012-06-01

Evacuating the injured is an important part of disaster medicine. Aircraft provide timely access to distant and remote areas and, in an emergency, can evacuate sick or injured individuals in such areas quickly and safely for critical treatment elsewhere. Aeromedical evacuation (AE) comprises the two categories of fixed-wing ambulance service and helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS). Each aims to accomplish unique objectives. In Taiwan, the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1958 established the unique role and functions of medical flight nursing. Significant knowledge and experience has been accumulated in the field since that time in such areas as the effects of high altitude environments on individuals and equipment; physiological, psychological, social and spiritual factors that affect the injured and / or response team members; and emergency care delivery techniques. All have been essential elements in the development and delivery of comprehensive medical flight nurse training. Medical flight nursing belongs in a special professional category, as nurses must master knowledge on general and special-case casualty evacuation procedures, relevant instruments and equipment, triage, in-flight medical care, and aircraft loading requirements related to transporting the sick and injured. The internationalization of medical care has opened the potential to expand medical flight nursing roles and functions into disaster nursing. Although military considerations continue to frame medical flight nursing training and preparation today, the authors feel that creating strategic alliances with disaster nursing specialists and organizations overseas is a future developmental direction for Taiwan's medical flight nursing sector worth formal consideration.

Evacuation Simulation in Kalayaan Residence Hall, up Diliman Using Gama Simulation Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claridades, A. R. C.; Villanueva, J. K. S.; Macatulad, E. G.

2016-09-01

Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) has recently been adopted in some studies for the modelling of events as a dynamic system given a set of events and parameters. In principle, ABM employs individual agents with assigned attributes and behaviors and simulates their behavior around their environment and interaction with other agents. This can be a useful tool in both micro and macroscale-applications. In this study, a model initially created and applied to an academic building was implemented in a dormitory. In particular, this research integrates three-dimensional Geographic Information System (GIS) with GAMA as the multi-agent based evacuation simulation and is implemented in Kalayaan Residence Hall. A three-dimensional GIS model is created based on the floor plans and demographic data of the dorm, including respective pathways as networks, rooms, floors, exits and appropriate attributes. This model is then re-implemented in GAMA. Different states of the agents and their effect on their evacuation time were then observed. GAMA simulation with varying path width was also implemented. It has been found out that compared to their original states, panic, eating and studying will hasten evacuation, and on the other hand, sleeping and being on the bathrooms will be impedances. It is also concluded that evacuation time will be halved when path widths are doubled, however it is recommended for further studies for pathways to be modeled as spaces instead of lines. A more scientific basis for predicting agent behavior in these states is also recommended for more realistic results.

Novel device and technique for minimally invasive intracerebral hematoma evacuation in the same setting of a ruptured intracranial aneurysm: combined treatment in the neurointerventional angiography suite.

PubMed

Turner, Raymond D; Vargas, Jan; Turk, Aquilla S; Chaudry, M Imran; Spiotta, Alejandro M

2015-03-01

The presence of intracerebral hematoma from aneurysm rupture is an indication for craniotomy for clot evacuation and aneurysm clipping. Some centers have begun securing aneurysms with coil embolization followed by clot evacuation in the operating room. This approach requires transporting a patient from the angiography suite to the operating room, which can take valuable time and resources. To report our experience with 3 cases in which a novel technique for minimally invasive evacuation of intracerebral hematomas after endovascular treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms was used. The Penumbra Apollo system can be used in the angiography suite in conjunction with neuroendovascular techniques to simultaneously address a symptomatic hematoma associated with a ruptured aneurysm. Standard preoperative computed tomography angiography was performed on arrival to the emergency department. The patients underwent diagnostic cerebral angiography followed by balloon-assisted coil embolization and then remained in the neurointerventional suite for intracerebral hematoma evacuation with the Apollo system. All patients tolerated coil embolization and hematoma evacuation well. The combined procedures lasted <3 hours in both cases. Two patients were eventually discharged to acute rehabilitation facilities less than a month after their initial insult, and 1 has been cleared to return to work. The other patient was transferred to hospice care. The Apollo aspiration system appears to be a safe and effective minimally invasive option for intracerebral hematoma evacuation, particularly when coupled with endovascular embolization of ruptured intracranial aneurysms. Future work will address which patient population is most likely to benefit from this promising technique.

Theoretical modeling and experimental analysis of solar still integrated with evacuated tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panchal, Hitesh; Awasthi, Anuradha

2017-06-01

In this present research work, theoretical modeling of single slope, single basin solar still integrated with evacuated tubes has been performed based on energy balance equations. Major variables like water temperature, inner glass cover temperature and distillate output has been computed based on theoretical modeling. The experimental setup has been made from locally available materials and installed at Gujarat Power Engineering and Research Institute, Mehsana, Gujarat, India (23.5880°N, 72.3693°E) with 0.04 m depth during 6 months of time interval. From the series of experiments, it is found considerable increment in average distillate output of a solar still when integrated with evacuated tubes not only during daytime but also from night time. In all experimental cases, the correlation of coefficient (r) and root mean square percentage deviation of theoretical modeling and experimental study found good agreement with 0.97 < r < 0.98 and 10.22 < e < 38.4% respectively.

Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

2013-04-01

In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages including consideration of full-evacuation and no-evacuation scenario options. Short and medium-term exposure patterns such as hourly, daily, weekly, and seasonal variations provide the starting point information for evacuation planning, i.e. exact numbers of people at risk and estimates for sheltering requirements. Inherent hazard-specific vulnerabilities determine people with special needs who are considered high priority during evacuation. The nature of a cascading event also implies that alerting actions have to be adapted to changing conditions as people are already generally aware of the crisis situation after the earlier earthquake warning, but at the same time need to be continuously updated on relevant changes. Fires do for example often entail strong smoke development which can pose serious threat to people exposed (i.e., intoxication). In areas with reinforced concrete or masonry buildings (like in most Mediterranean countries) it is then usually advised to stay inside the houses in order to avoid getting trapped in smoke immersions in the streets. However, in a multi-hazard scenario involving potential earthquake-caused building damage, it might be decided to rather initiate full and particularly fast evacuation of the threatened area, because general building safety is no longer guaranteed and preparation time is very limited. Evacuation might then respectively be further hindered by blocked roads due to damaged infrastructure or presence of debris from collapsed buildings as well as by the progressing fire and smoke-induced reduced visibility, all also causing further panic in the population. One particular aspect of the occurrence of cascading effects is the accumulated stress that it causes to crisis management, i.e. in a sense that the fire event must be responded to when all the civil protection resources are already dedicated to addressing the seismic consequences. Coming back to the reference event of the presented scenario, the 2009 L'Aquila EQ, in that case a few days before the main shock it was decided by the responsible assessment team not to evacuate. There was a lack of supportive instruments and tools enabling the comparison of the effects of different measures, thus it was basically counted on the very low probability of a large shock to follow a swarm of small seismic events. The CRISMA system is designed and supposed to fill in this gap and provide effective and comprehensive decision support for crisis management and impact mitigation by integrating alternative-scenario simulation. Thereby also the efficiency of distribution of civil protection resources and means to simultaneously fight multiple hazard events will be analyzed.

Does Early Resumption of Low-Dose Aspirin After Evacuation of Chronic Subdural Hematoma With Burr-Hole Drainage Lead to Higher Recurrence Rates?

PubMed

Kamenova, Maria; Lutz, Katharina; Schaedelin, Sabine; Fandino, Javier; Mariani, Luigi; Soleman, Jehuda

2016-11-01

Antiplatelet therapy in patients with chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) presents significant neurosurgical challenges. Given the lack of guidelines regarding perioperative management with antiplatelet therapy, it is difficult to balance the patient's increased cardiovascular risk and prevalence of cSDH. To better understand the risk and recurrence rates related to resuming low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) by evaluating our patients' resumption of low-dose ASA at various times after burr-hole drainage of the hematoma. In our retrospective study, 140 consecutive patients taking low-dose ASA undergoing surgical evacuation of cSDH were included. Data included baseline characteristics and rates of recurrence, morbidity, and mortality. A multivariate logistic regression model analyzed the association between ASA resumption time and recurrence rates. No statistically significant association was observed between early postoperative resumption of low-dose ASA and recurrence of cSDH (odds ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.022; P = .06). Corresponding odds ratios and risk differences for restarting ASA treatment on postoperative days 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, or 42 were estimated at 1.53 and 5.9%, 1.42 and 5.1%, 1.33 and 4.1%, 1.23 and 3.2%, 1.15 and 2.2%, 1.07 and 1.1%, and 1.01 and 0.2%, respectively (P > .05). Cardiovascular event rates, surgical morbidity, and mortality did not significantly differ between patients with or without ASA therapy. Given the few published studies regarding ASA use in cranial neurosurgery, our findings elucidate one issue, showing comparable recurrence rates with early or late resumption of low-dose ASA after burr-hole evacuation of cSDH. ASA, acetylsalicylic acidCAD, coronary artery diseaseCI, confidence intervalcSDH, chronic subdural hematomaGCS, Glasgow Coma ScalemRS, modified Rankin ScaleOR, odds ratioRD, risk difference.

Angora Fire, Lake Tahoe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

On the weekend of June 23, 2007, a wildfire broke out south of Lake Tahoe, which stretches across the California-Nevada border. By June 28, the Angora Fire had burned more than 200 homes and forced some 2,000 residents to evacuate, according to The Seattle Times and the Central Valley Business Times. On June 27, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image of the burn scar left by the Angora fire. The burn scar is dark gray, or charcoal. Water bodies, including the southern tip of Lake Tahoe and Fallen Leaf Lake, are pale silvery blue, the silver color a result of sunlight reflecting off the surface of the water. Vegetation ranges in color from dark to bright green. Streets are light gray, and the customary pattern of meandering residential streets and cul-de-sacs appears throughout the image, including the area that burned. The burn scar shows where the fire obliterated some of the residential areas just east of Fallen Leaf Lake. According to news reports, the U.S. Forest Service had expressed optimism about containing the fire within a week of the outbreak, but a few days after the fire started, it jumped a defense, forcing the evacuation of hundreds more residents. Strong winds that had been forecast for June 27, however, did not materialize, allowing firefighters to regain ground in controlling the blaze. On June 27, authorities hoped that the fire would be completely contained by July 3. According to estimates provided in the daily report from the National Interagency Fire Center, the fire had burned 3,100 acres (about 12.5 square kilometers) and was about 55 percent contained as of June 28. Some mandatory evacuations remained in effect. NASA image by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the NASA/GSFC/MITI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team.

Flood-inundation maps for the Hoosic River, North Adams and Williamstown, Massachusetts, from the confluence with the North Branch Hoosic River to the Vermont State line

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Bent, Gardner C.

2015-01-01

The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding current (near real-time) stage from USGS streamgage Hoosic River near Williamstown, and forecasted flood stages from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and post-flood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

Flood-inundation Maps for the Deerfield River, Franklin County, Massachusetts, from the Confluence with the Cold River Tributary to the Connecticut River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.; Bent, Gardner C.

2015-09-02

The availability of the flood-inundation maps at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, combined with information regarding current (near real-time) stage from the two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the study reach, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information to aid in flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and with postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

RTSTEP regional transportation simulation tool for emergency planning - final report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ley, H.; Sokolov, V.; Hope, M.

2012-01-20

Large-scale evacuations from major cities during no-notice events - such as chemical or radiological attacks, hazardous material spills, or earthquakes - have an obvious impact on large regions rather than on just the directly affected area. The scope of impact includes the accommodation of emergency evacuation traffic throughout a very large area; the planning of resources to respond appropriately to the needs of the affected population; the placement of medical supplies and decontamination equipment; and the assessment and determination of primary escape routes, as well as routes for incoming emergency responders. Compared to events with advance notice, such as evacuationsmore » based on hurricanes approaching an affected area, the response to no-notice events relies exclusively on pre-planning and general regional emergency preparedness. Another unique issue is the lack of a full and immediate understanding of the underlying threats to the population, making it even more essential to gain extensive knowledge of the available resources, the chain of command, and established procedures. Given the size of the area affected, an advanced understanding of the regional transportation systems is essential to help with the planning for such events. The objectives of the work described here (carried out by Argonne National Laboratory) is the development of a multi-modal regional transportation model that allows for the analysis of different evacuation scenarios and emergency response strategies to build a wealth of knowledge that can be used to develop appropriate regional emergency response plans. The focus of this work is on the effects of no-notice evacuations on the regional transportation network, as well as the response of the transportation network to the sudden and unusual demand. The effects are dynamic in nature, with scenarios changing potentially from minute to minute. The response to a radiological or chemical hazard will be based on the time-delayed dispersion of such materials over a large area, with responders trying to mitigate the immediate danger to the population in a variety of ways that may change over time (e.g., in-place evacuation, staged evacuations, and declarations of growing evacuation zones over time). In addition, available resources will be marshaled in unusual ways, such as the repurposing of transit vehicles to support mass evacuations. Thus, any simulation strategy will need to be able to address highly dynamic effects and will need to be able to handle any mode of ground transportation. Depending on the urgency and timeline of the event, emergency responders may also direct evacuees to leave largely on foot, keeping roadways as clear as possible for emergency responders, logistics, mass transport, and law enforcement. This RTSTEP project developed a regional emergency evacuation modeling tool for the Chicago Metropolitan Area that emergency responders can use to pre-plan evacuation strategies and compare different response strategies on the basis of a rather realistic model of the underlying complex transportation system. This approach is a significant improvement over existing response strategies that are largely based on experience gained from small-scale events, anecdotal evidence, and extrapolation to the scale of the assumed emergency. The new tool will thus add to the toolbox available to emergency response planners to help them design appropriate generalized procedures and strategies that lead to an improved outcome when used during an actual event.« less

Factors Affecting Hurricane Evacuation Intentions.

PubMed

Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazrus, Heather

2015-10-01

Protective actions for hurricane threats are a function of the environmental and information context; individual and household characteristics, including cultural worldviews, past hurricane experiences, and risk perceptions; and motivations and barriers to actions. Using survey data from the Miami-Dade and Houston-Galveston areas, we regress individuals' stated evacuation intentions on these factors in two information conditions: (1) seeing a forecast that a hurricane will hit one's area, and (2) receiving an evacuation order. In both information conditions having an evacuation plan, wanting to keep one's family safe, and viewing one's home as vulnerable to wind damage predict increased evacuation intentions. Some predictors of evacuation intentions differ between locations; for example, Florida respondents with more egalitarian worldviews are more likely to evacuate under both information conditions, and Florida respondents with more individualist worldviews are less likely to evacuate under an evacuation order, but worldview was not significantly associated with evacuation intention for Texas respondents. Differences by information condition also emerge, including: (1) evacuation intentions decrease with age in the evacuation order condition but increase with age in the saw forecast condition, and (2) evacuation intention in the evacuation order condition increases among those who rely on public sources of information on hurricane threats, whereas in the saw forecast condition evacuation intention increases among those who rely on personal sources. Results reinforce the value of focusing hurricane information efforts on evacuation plans and residential vulnerability and suggest avenues for future research on how hurricane contexts shape decision making. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effects of the Fort McMurray wildfires on the health of evacuated workers: follow-up of 2 cohorts

PubMed Central

Cherry, Nicola; Haynes, Whitney

2017-01-01

Background: Wildfire engulfed Fort McMurray, Alberta on May 3, 2016, leading to a total evacuation. Access to 2 active cohorts allowed us to rapidly assess health effects in those evacuated. Methods: People working in Fort McMurray who had been recruited before the fire for 2 occupational health cohort studies completed a questionnaire (online or via telephone) 3-26 weeks after evacuation. The questionnaire asked about respiratory and mental health and experiences since the fire. Results: Of the 129 participants, 109 were in the Fort McMurray area on May 3. Thirty-seven (33.9%) of the participants who were in Fort McMurray on May 3 reported a health condition, including respiratory symptoms (n = 17) and mental ill health (n = 17), immediately after the fire. At follow-up, a mean of 102 days after the fire, 11 participants (10.1%) reported a fire-related health condition, including mental ill health (n = 8) and respiratory symptoms (n = 2). There was no difference before and after the fire in use of alcohol, cigarettes, recreational drugs or medication. One in 4 participants (32 [24.6%]) had not worked since the fire, and fewer than half (58 [44.6%]) had returned to Fort McMurray. Of the 90 participants evacuated, 15 (16.7%) had scores indicative of moderate or severe anxiety or depression on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Those evacuated had significantly higher mean anxiety (p = 0.01) and depression (p = 0.04) scores than those not evacuated. Regression modelling showed that anxiety scores were higher for women, with longer time since the fire and with evacuation to a motel. Depression scores were higher for women and with financial loss because of lack of work. Interpretation: Although evacuation was associated with higher anxiety and depression scores, persisting ill health was not widespread at early follow-up after the fire. Although these results are encouraging, these "healthy worker" results cannot be generalized to all evacuees. PMID:28819065

Effects of the Fort McMurray wildfires on the health of evacuated workers: follow-up of 2 cohorts.

PubMed

Cherry, Nicola; Haynes, Whitney

2017-08-15

Wildfire engulfed Fort McMurray, Alberta on May 3, 2016, leading to a total evacuation. Access to 2 active cohorts allowed us to rapidly assess health effects in those evacuated. People working in Fort McMurray who had been recruited before the fire for 2 occupational health cohort studies completed a questionnaire (online or via telephone) 3-26 weeks after evacuation. The questionnaire asked about respiratory and mental health and experiences since the fire. Of the 129 participants, 109 were in the Fort McMurray area on May 3. Thirty-seven (33.9%) of the participants who were in Fort McMurray on May 3 reported a health condition, including respiratory symptoms ( n = 17) and mental ill health ( n = 17), immediately after the fire. At follow-up, a mean of 102 days after the fire, 11 participants (10.1%) reported a fire-related health condition, including mental ill health ( n = 8) and respiratory symptoms ( n = 2). There was no difference before and after the fire in use of alcohol, cigarettes, recreational drugs or medication. One in 4 participants (32 [24.6%]) had not worked since the fire, and fewer than half (58 [44.6%]) had returned to Fort McMurray. Of the 90 participants evacuated, 15 (16.7%) had scores indicative of moderate or severe anxiety or depression on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Those evacuated had significantly higher mean anxiety ( p = 0.01) and depression ( p = 0.04) scores than those not evacuated. Regression modelling showed that anxiety scores were higher for women, with longer time since the fire and with evacuation to a motel. Depression scores were higher for women and with financial loss because of lack of work. Although evacuation was associated with higher anxiety and depression scores, persisting ill health was not widespread at early follow-up after the fire. Although these results are encouraging, these "healthy worker" results cannot be generalized to all evacuees. Copyright 2017, Joule Inc. or its licensors.

Early waning and evacuation from Tsunami, volcano, flood and other hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2012-12-01

In reconsideration of the great sacrifice among the people, evacuation calls for evacuation through Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), local governments and Medias have been drastically changed after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. One of example is that JMA changed from forecasted concrete figure of tsunami height to one of 3 levels of tsunami height. A data shows the border between life and death is just 2 minutes of earlier evacuation in case of the 2011 tsunami. It shows how importance for communities to prompt early evacuation for survivals. However, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed there is no reliable trigger to prompt early evacuation to people in case of blackout under disasters, excluding effective education. The warning call was still complicated situations in Japan in July 2012. The 2012 Northern Kyusyu downpours was at worst around 110 millimeters an hour and casualties 30 in Japan. JMA learned from the last tsunami. In this time JMA informed to local governments as a waning call "Unexpected severe rains" to local governments. However, local governments did not notice the call from JMA in the same as usual informed way. One of the local government said "We were very busy for preparing for staffs. We looked at the necessary information of the water levels of rivers and flood prevention under emergent situation" (NHK 2012). This case shows JMA's evacuation calls from upstream to midstream of local government and downstream of communities started, however upstream calls have not engaged with midstream and communities yet. Calls of early warning from upstream is still a self-centered idea for both midstream and downstream. Finally JMA could not convey a crisis mentality to local government. The head of Oarai town independently decided to use the different warning call "Order townspersons to evacuate immediately" in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan from the other municipalities in 2011 though there was not such a manuals calls in Japan. This risk communication succeeded between the local government and communities. People said I have never heard such warning call so I started evacuate soon. On the other hand, Japanese government make a strategy of level 1 tsunami height and lever 2 height. Japan is still seeking to adept at harmonizing evacuation with infrastructures to prevent. It is still not clear to solve warning issues and prevent issues. This research contributes how to struggle with these issues now in Japan.

Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

PubMed Central

Carlson, Jean M.; Alderson, David L.; Stromberg, Sean P.; Bassett, Danielle S.; Craparo, Emily M.; Guiterrez-Villarreal, Francisco; Otani, Thomas

2014-01-01

Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In a controlled laboratory setting, our results quantify several key factors influencing individual evacuation decision making in a controlled laboratory setting. The experiment includes tensions between broadcast and peer-to-peer information, and contrasts the effects of temporal urgency associated with the imminence of the disaster and the effects of limited shelter capacity for evacuees. Based on empirical measurements of the cumulative rate of evacuations as a function of the instantaneous disaster likelihood, we develop a quantitative model for decision making that captures remarkably well the main features of observed collective behavior across many different scenarios. Moreover, this model captures the sensitivity of individual- and population-level decision behaviors to external pressures, and systematic deviations from the model provide meaningful estimates of variability in the collective response. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios, specifically the development and testing of robust strategies for training and control of evacuations that account for human behavior and network topologies. PMID:24520331

The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Asako J.; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E.; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M.; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-01-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocyto-fluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident. PMID:28240558

The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Nakamura, Asako J; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-05-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocytofluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident.

Does colostomy irrigation affect functional outcomes and quality of life in persons with a colostomy?

PubMed

Kent, Dea J; Long, Mary Arnold; Bauer, Carole

2015-01-01

Colostomy irrigation may be used by patients with colostomies to regulate bowel evacuations by stimulating emptying of the colon at regularly scheduled times. This Evidence-Based Report Card reviews the effect of colostomy irrigation on frequency of bowel evacuation, flatus production, odor, and health-related quality of life. We systematically reviewed the literature for studies that evaluated health-related quality of life in persons aged 18 years or older with colostomies of the sigmoid or descending left colon. A professional librarian performed the literature search, which yielded 499 articles using the search terms "colostomy," "colostomies," "therapeutic irrigation," "irrigation," and "irrigator." Following title and abstract reviews, we identified and retrieved 4 studies that met inclusion criteria. Colostomy irrigation reduces the frequency of bowel evacuations when compared to spontaneous evacuation and containment using a pouching system. Regular irrigation is associated with reductions in pouch usage. This change in bowel evacuation function frequently results in absence of bowel evacuations for 24 hours or longer, enabling some to discontinue ongoing use of a pouching system. Subjects using CI report reductions in flatus and odors associated with presence of a colostomy. One study was identified that found persons using CI reported higher health-related quality of life than did those who managed their colostomies with spontaneous evacuation using the Digestive Disease Quality of Life-15, but no differences were found when health-related quality of life was measured using the more generic instrument, the Medical Outcomes Study: Short Form-36. Instruction on principles and techniques of colostomy irrigation should be considered when managing patients with a permanent, left-sided colostomy.

Apparatus for detecting leaks

DOEpatents

Booth, Eugene T.

1976-02-24

A method and apparatus for determining the position of and estimating the size of leaks in an evacuating apparatus comprising the use of a testing gas such as helium or hydrogen flowing around said apparatus whereby the testing gas will be drawn in at the site of any leaks.

Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

Hurricane shuts down gulf activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koen, A.D.

1992-08-31

This paper reports that producers in the Gulf of Mexico and plant operators in South Louisiana last week were checking for damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew. In its wake Andrew left evacuated rigs and platforms in the gulf and shuttered plants across a wide swath of the Gulf Coast. Operations were beginning to return to normal late last week. Not all gulf operators, especially in the central gulf, expected to return to offshore facilities. And even producers able to book helicopters did not expect to be able to fully assess damage to all offshore installations before the weekend. MMS officialsmore » in Washington estimated that 37,500 offshore workers were evacuated from 700 oil and gas installations on the gulf's Outer Continental Shelf. Gulf oil and gas wells account for about 800,000 b/d of oil and one fourth of total U.S. gas production. MMS was awaiting an assessment of hurricane damage before estimating how soon and how much gulf oil and gas production would be restored.« less

Economic impacts of a California tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Adam; Wing, Ian Sue; Wei, Dan; Wein, Anne

2016-01-01

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reduce the direct and total impacts by 80–85%.

Medical relief activities, medical resourcing, and inpatient evacuation conducted by Nippon Medical School due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident following the Great East Japan Earthquake 2011.

PubMed

Koyama, Atsushi; Fuse, Akira; Hagiwara, Jun; Matsumoto, Gaku; Shiraishi, Shinichiro; Masuno, Tomohiko; Miyauchi, Masato; Kawai, Makoto; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2011-01-01

On March 11, 2011, after the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the government declared a nuclear emergency following damage to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. A second hydrogen explosion occurred on March 14 at the plant's No. 3 reactor and injured 11 people. At that time the prime minister urged people living 20 to 30 km from the Daiichi plant to stay indoors. Under these circumstances, many residents of Iwaki City, which was largely outside the 30-km zone, left the city, making it difficult to get supplies to the remaining residents. The only transportation route open for supplies and medical resources was roads, and many drivers feared the rumor that the city was contaminated by radioactive materials and, so, refused to go there. Nippon Medical School (NMS) heard that medical resources were running short at Iwaki Kyoritsu Hospital, which requested water, medications, food, fuel (gasoline), medical support, and the evacuation of 300 inpatients. As a first step, NMS decided to evaluate the situation at the hospital and, on March 16, the director of the NMS Advanced Emergency Center visited the hospital and helped provide triage for about 200 patients. Critically ill patients receiving ventilatory support were given priority for evacuation because they would be most at risk of not being able to evacuate should the Japanese government order an immediate evacuation of the city. We tried to evacuate the inpatients via an official framework, such as the Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT), but DMAT could not support this mission because this hospital was not within the 30-km evacuation zone. Moreover, the Iwaki City government could not support the evacuation efforts because they were fearful of the rumor that Iwaki was contaminated by radioactive material. Ultimately, we realized that we had to conduct the mission ourselves and, so, contacted our colleagues in the Tokyo metropolitan area to prepare enough hospital beds. We evacuated 15 patients to 8 hospitals over a 5-day period. As a result, we could reduce the number of patients at Iwaki Kyoritsu Hospital, and, thereby, the collapse of medical services in the city was avoided. In retrospect, someone might say the government--either central or local--should ideally have carried out this mission and created a system by which to do it. At the same time, however, to overcome any future bureaucratic issues, we should also prepare private networks, such as those used by NMS, because they can respond flexibly to unexpected large-scale disasters.

Gis-Based Accessibility Analysis of Urban Emergency Shelters: the Case of Adana City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unal, M.; Uslu, C.

2016-10-01

Accessibility analysis of urban emergency shelters can help support urban disaster prevention planning. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic on disaster prevention and mitigation research. In this study, we assessed the level of serviceability of urban emergency shelters within maximum capacity, usability, sufficiency and a certain walking time limit by employing spatial analysis techniques of GIS-Network Analyst. The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility and the optimization of evacuation destinations. This methodology was applied to Adana, a city in Turkey, which is located within the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic system, the second major earthquake belt after the Pacific-Belt. It was found that the proposed methodology could be useful in aiding to understand the spatial distribution of urban emergency shelters more accurately and establish effective future urban disaster prevention planning. Additionally, this research provided a feasible way for supporting emergency management in terms of shelter construction, pre-disaster evacuation drills and rescue operations.

3 Echo: concept of operations for early care and evacuation of victims of mass violence.

PubMed

Autrey, Allen W; Hick, John L; Bramer, Kurtis; Berndt, Jeremy; Bundt, Jonathan

2014-08-01

This report describes the successful use of a simple 3-phase approach that guides the initial 30 minutes of a response to blast and active shooter events with casualties: Enter, Evaluate, and Evacuate (3 Echo) in a mass-shooting event occurring in Minneapolis, Minnesota USA, on September 27, 2012. Early coordination between law enforcement (LE) and rescue was emphasized, including establishment of unified command, a common operating picture, determination of evacuation corridors, swift victim evaluation, basic treatment, and rapid evacuation utilizing an approach developed collaboratively over the four years prior to the event. Field implementation of 3 Echo requires multi-disciplinary (Emergency Medical Services (EMS), fire and LE) training to optimize performance. This report details the mass-shooting event, the framework created to support the response, and also describes important aspects of the concepts of operation and curriculum evolved through years of collaboration between multiple disciplines to arrive at unprecedented EMS transport times in response to the event.

Task Force on Emergency Evacuation of Transport Airplanes. Volume 2. Supporting Documentation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-07-01

P.O. Box 604 Trinidaa, West Indies Rick Cremer Acting Manager, Frederic Diamond Air Carrier Branch President Federal Aviation Apeiron Technology...Lynch Transport Canada Further, to insure the availability of trained personnel to provide leadership in the event of an accident of an aircraft having...66-26A. -3- conmmendably in achieving evacuations within reasonable times while providingy calm ana etfective leadership , It was found that escape

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

2011-01-01

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Evacuation of Intensive Care Units During Disaster: Learning From the Hurricane Sandy Experience.

PubMed

King, Mary A; Dorfman, Molly V; Einav, Sharon; Niven, Alex S; Kissoon, Niranjan; Grissom, Colin K

2016-02-01

Data on best practices for evacuating an intensive care unit (ICU) during a disaster are limited. The impact of Hurricane Sandy on New York City area hospitals provided a unique opportunity to learn from the experience of ICU providers about their preparedness, perspective, roles, and activities. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of nurses, respiratory therapists, and physicians who played direct roles during the Hurricane Sandy ICU evacuations. Sixty-eight health care professionals from 4 evacuating hospitals completed surveys (35% ICU nurses, 21% respiratory therapists, 25% physicians-in-training, and 13% attending physicians). Only 21% had participated in an ICU evacuation drill in the past 2 years and 28% had prior training or real-life experience. Processes were inconsistent for patient prioritization, tracking, transport medications, and transport care. Respondents identified communication (43%) as the key barrier to effective evacuation. The equipment considered most helpful included flashlights (24%), transport sleds (21%), and oxygen tanks and respiratory therapy supplies (19%). An evacuation wish list included walkie-talkies/phones (26%), lighting/electricity (18%), flashlights (10%), and portable ventilators and suction (16%). ICU providers who evacuated critically ill patients during Hurricane Sandy had little prior knowledge of evacuation processes or vertical evacuation experience. The weakest links in the patient evacuation process were communication and the availability of practical tools. Incorporating ICU providers into hospital evacuation planning and training, developing standard evacuation communication processes and tools, and collecting a uniform dataset among all evacuating hospitals could better inform critical care evacuation in the future.

Estimation and optimization of thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collector system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikmen, Erkan; Ayaz, Mahir; Ezen, H. Hüseyin; Küçüksille, Ecir U.; Şahin, Arzu Şencan

2014-05-01

In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) in order to predict the thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collector system have been used. The experimental data for the training and testing of the networks were used. The results of ANN are compared with ANFIS in which the same data sets are used. The R2-value for the thermal performance values of collector is 0.811914 which can be considered as satisfactory. The results obtained when unknown data were presented to the networks are satisfactory and indicate that the proposed method can successfully be used for the prediction of the thermal performance of evacuated tube solar collectors. In addition, new formulations obtained from ANN are presented for the calculation of the thermal performance. The advantages of this approaches compared to the conventional methods are speed, simplicity, and the capacity of the network to learn from examples. In addition, genetic algorithm (GA) was used to maximize the thermal performance of the system. The optimum working conditions of the system were determined by the GA.

Modeling pedestrian evacuation with guiders based on a multi-grid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Shuchao; Song, Weiguo; Lv, Wei

2016-02-01

Pedestrian evacuation with guidance is investigated by a multi-grid model in this paper. The effects of guider type, guider number, guider distribution and guidance strategy on evacuation are discussed. From the analysis of simulation results, it is found that the identified guiders are more beneficial to evacuation because they can be distinguished easily by pedestrians during evacuation; The optimal guider number exists in view of the human cost and can be obtained in our model; The uniform distribution of guiders covers more area in the room and makes evacuation efficient; Evacuation guidance is more effective when the speed of guider is about 75% of herding pedestrian's speed in our simulation scenario; The performance of evacuation guidance strategy considering both distance and occupant number is the best when compared to other strategies; The coordination and cooperation between guiders are very important and necessary to facilitate the evacuation. The study may be useful for understanding the importance of guidance in evacuation and developing efficient evacuation strategy for management under emergency.

Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

2001-09-01

We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

Decision-making on Population Return At the End of an Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, G.

2015-12-01

If an eruption sequence is protracted and episodic, continuing for many months, or even a number of years, it can be very difficult for authorities to decide when an evacuated population might be allowed to return. A precautionary approach may be appropriate as a general principle, especially if the societal implications are deemed to be manageable. However, where the livelihoods of the evacuees are critically at stake, such as with farmers, and the economic costs of continuing evacuation are high, a risk-informed approach to supporting decision-making might be warranted. Such an approach has been developed, based on concepts drawn from cost-benefit analysis. On any given day during an extended volcanic crisis, a decision-maker may wish to consider whether to allow then for the return of evacuees. A delay of a decision by one day will increase the evacuation cost by one day's worth of accommodation and economic disruption. On the other hand, there is a small chance that there might be an onset to another eruption on this given day, so there would be a safety benefit in the delay. The task of quantifying this safety benefit requires a coherent synthesis of all the volcano monitoring data time series, together with an assessment of the medium and long-term historical and geological data, so that the probability of each of the alternative eruptive scenarios can be scientifically estimated. Bayesian belief networks provide a convenient framework for this synthesis. For each scenario, the potential casualty implications for returned evacuees need to be assessed. The application of this end of eruption methodology is illustrated and compared with the equivalent decision-making procedure at the start of an eruption.

Mass and Volume Optimization of Space Flight Medical Kits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, A. B.; Foy, Millennia Hope; Myers, Jerry

2014-01-01

Resource allocation is a critical aspect of space mission planning. All resources, including medical resources, are subject to a number of mission constraints such a maximum mass and volume. However, unlike many resources, there is often limited understanding in how to optimize medical resources for a mission. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulates outcomes and describes the impact of medical events in terms of lost crew time, medical resource usage, and the potential for medically required evacuation. Previously published work describes an approach that uses the IMM to generate optimized medical kits that maximize benefit to the crew subject to mass and volume constraints. We improve upon the results obtained previously and extend our approach to minimize mass and volume while meeting some benefit threshold. METHODS We frame the medical kit optimization problem as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing dynamic programming. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the medical kit mass and volume for a specified likelihood of evacuation or Crew Health Index (CHI) threshold. The algorithm was expanded to generate medical kits that maximize likelihood of evacuation or CHI subject to mass and volume constraints. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS In maximizing benefit to crew health subject to certain constraints, our algorithm generates medical kits that more closely resemble the unlimited-resource scenario than previous approaches which leverage medical risk information generated by the IMM. Our work here demonstrates that this algorithm provides an efficient and effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions and provides an effective means of addressing tradeoffs in medical resource allocations and crew mission success parameters.

Lifestyle-related diseases following the evacuation after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident: a retrospective study of Kawauchi Village with long-term follow-up

PubMed Central

Ebner, Daniel K; Ohsawa, Megumi; Igari, Keiko; Harada, Kouji H; Koizumi, Akio

2016-01-01

Objectives Kawauchi Village lies 20 km west of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. On 16 March 2011, evacuation was ordered due to the threat of radiological exposure, and was lifted in April 2012. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the predisaster and postdisaster health status of the Kawauchi Villagers, measured by routine yearly physical examinations. Methods We analysed the annual health examination data of residents of Kawauchi Village from 2008 to 2013, as available from the Japanese National Health Insurance system. Data from 2011 were not available due to the disaster. Since the health data included the same participants repeatedly from year to year, the sample was non-independent and generalised estimated equation modelling was used. A predisaster time period (2008–2010) was categorised for comparison with postdisaster 2012 and 2013. The outcome examined was the prevalence of metabolic disease, and was adjusted for confounding factors. Results Data for 20.6%–25.9% of the total residents were available in this period. In 2013, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (from 17.0% to 25.2%, p<0.001), diabetes (from 11.3% to 17.0%, p<0.001), dyslipidaemia (from 43.2% to 56.7%, p<0.0001), hyperuricaemia (from 5.2% to 8.4%, p=0.006) and chronic kidney disease (from 16.1% to 26.7%, p<0.001) was found to be elevated significantly compared to predisaster years, while that of obesity or hypertension did not change. Conclusions The present follow-up study for Kawauchi Village revealed an increase in lifestyle-related disease following the March 2011 disaster and subsequent evacuation, and this trend still continues 2 years later. PMID:27401362

A method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Mengxiao; Zhang, Guijuan; Wang, Mengsi; Lu, Dianjie; Liu, Hong

2017-10-01

The current evacuation model does not consider the impact of emotion and personality on crowd evacuation. Thus, there is large difference between evacuation results and the real-life behavior of the crowd. In order to generate more realistic crowd evacuation results, we present a method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation. First, we combine OCEAN (Openness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism, Conscientiousness) model and SIS (Susceptible Infected Susceptible) model to construct the P-SIS (Personalized SIS) emotional contagion model. The P-SIS model shows the diversity of individuals in crowd effectively. Second, we couple the P-SIS model with the social force model to simulate emotional contagion on crowd evacuation. Finally, the photo-realistic rendering method is employed to obtain the animation of crowd evacuation. Experimental results show that our method can simulate crowd evacuation realistically and has guiding significance for crowd evacuation in the emergency circumstances.

Treatment of chronic subdural hematomas with subdural evacuating port system placement in the intensive care unit: evolution of practice and comparison with bur hole evacuation in the operating room.

PubMed

Flint, Alexander C; Chan, Sheila L; Rao, Vivek A; Efron, Allen D; Kalani, Maziyar A; Sheridan, William F

2017-12-01

OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to evaluate a multiyear experience with subdural evacuating port system (SEPS) placement for chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) in the intensive care unit at a tertiary neurosurgical center and to compare SEPS placement with bur hole evacuation in the operating room. METHODS All cases of cSDH evacuation were captured over a 7-year period at a tertiary neurosurgical center within an integrated health care delivery system. The authors compared the performance characteristics of SEPS and bur hole placement with respect to recurrence rates, change in recurrence rates over time, complications, length of stay, discharge disposition, and mortality rates. RESULTS A total of 371 SEPS cases and 659 bur hole cases were performed (n = 1030). The use of bedside SEPS placement for cSDH treatment increased over the 7-year period, from 14% to 80% of cases. Reoperation within 6 months was higher for the SEPS (15.6%) than for bur hole drainage (9.1%) across the full 7-year period (p = 0.002). This observed overall difference was due to a higher rate of reoperation during the same hospitalization (7.0% for SEPS vs 3.2% for bur hole; p = 0.008). Over time, as the SEPS procedure became more common and modifications of the SEPS technique were introduced, the rate of in-hospital reoperation after SEPS decreased to 3.3% (p = 0.02 for trend), and the difference between SEPS and bur hole recurrence was no longer significant (p = 0.70). Complications were uncommon and were similar between the groups. CONCLUSIONS Overall performance characteristics of bedside SEPS and bur hole drainage in the operating room were similar. Modifications to the SEPS technique over time were associated with a reduced reoperation rate.

A spatiotemporal optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to flood hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alaeddine, H.; Serrhini, K.; Maizia, M.

2015-03-01

Managing the crisis caused by natural disasters, and especially by floods, requires the development of effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system must take into account certain constraints, including those related to traffic network, accessibility, human resources and material equipment (vehicles, collecting points, etc.). The main objective of this work is to provide assistance to technical services and rescue forces in terms of accessibility by offering itineraries relating to rescue and evacuation of people and property. We consider in this paper the evacuation of an urban area of medium size exposed to the hazard of flood. In case of inundation, most people will be evacuated using their own vehicles. Two evacuation types are addressed in this paper: (1) a preventive evacuation based on a flood forecasting system and (2) an evacuation during the disaster based on flooding scenarios. The two study sites on which the developed evacuation model is applied are the Tours valley (Fr, 37), which is protected by a set of dikes (preventive evacuation), and the Gien valley (Fr, 45), which benefits from a low rate of flooding (evacuation before and during the disaster). Our goal is to construct, for each of these two sites, a chronological evacuation plan, i.e., computing for each individual the departure date and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) according to a priority list established for this purpose. The evacuation plan must avoid the congestion on the road network. Here we present a spatiotemporal optimization model (STOM) dedicated to the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters and more specifically to flood risk.

A spatio-temporel optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alaeddine, H.; Serrhini, K.; Maïzia, M.; Néron, E.

2015-01-01

The importance of managing the crisis caused by natural disasters, and especially by flood, requires the development of an effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system must take into account certain constraints, including those related to network traffic, accessibility, human resources and material equipment (vehicles, collecting points, etc.). The main objective of this work is to provide assistance to technical services and rescue forces in terms of accessibility by offering itineraries relating to rescue and evacuation of people and property. We consider in this paper the evacuation of an urban area of medium size exposed to the hazard of flood. In case of inundation, most people will be evacuated using their own vehicles. Two evacuation types are addressed in this paper, (1) a preventive evacuation based on a flood forecasting system and (2) an evacuation during the disaster based on flooding scenarios. The two study sites on which the evacuation model developed is applied are the valley of Tours (Fr, 37) which is protected by a set of dikes (preventive evacuation) and the valley of Gien (Fr, 45) which benefits of a low rate of flooding (evacuation before and during the disaster). Our goal is to construct, for each of these two sites, a chronological evacuation plan i.e. computing for each individual the departure date and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) associated according to a priorities list established for this purpose. Evacuation plan must avoid the congestion on the road network. Here we present a Spatio-Temporal Optimization Model (STOM) dedicated to the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters and more specifically to flood risk.

Urgent Aeromedical Evacuation Network Capacity Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

What if AMC had one strategically positioned AC for the Urgent / Priority AE mission and the redistribution needs they encounter? This idea stems ...KtMI~rAFB _~...,_ Po~AFB ;------------~ Service Tirr~e Estimates I CO\\" CLl "SIO\\" • C-378 performs bestfrom a cost perspective • Contracted

Educators Reach out to Katrina Victims

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardy, Lawrence

2006-01-01

The emotional trauma of recent events may never go away. A million people were uprooted by Hurricane Katrina, including an estimated 372,000 children of school age. Three weeks later, Hurricane Rita slammed into the Texas-Louisiana coastline, forcing thousands more to evacuate. Acute symptoms of trauma range from confusion, nightmares, and…

Development of a foraging model framework to reliably estimate daily food consumption by young fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deslauriers, David; Rosburg, Alex J.; Chipps, Steven R.

2017-01-01

We developed a foraging model for young fishes that incorporates handling and digestion rate to estimate daily food consumption. Feeding trials were used to quantify functional feeding response, satiation, and gut evacuation rate. Once parameterized, the foraging model was then applied to evaluate effects of prey type, prey density, water temperature, and fish size on daily feeding rate by age-0 (19–70 mm) pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Prey consumption was positively related to prey density (for fish >30 mm) and water temperature, but negatively related to prey size and the presence of sand substrate. Model evaluation results revealed good agreement between observed estimates of daily consumption and those predicted by the model (r2 = 0.95). Model simulations showed that fish feeding on Chironomidae or Ephemeroptera larvae were able to gain mass, whereas fish feeding solely on zooplankton lost mass under most conditions. By accounting for satiation and digestive processes in addition to handling time and prey density, the model provides realistic estimates of daily food consumption that can prove useful for evaluating rearing conditions for age-0 fishes.

Interface between hospital and fire authorities--a concept for management of incidents in hospitals.

PubMed

Gretenkort, Peter; Harke, Henning; Blazejak, Jan; Pache, Bernd; Leledakis, Georgios

2002-01-01

Although every hospital needs a security plan for the support of immobile patients who do not possess autonomous escape capabilities, little information exists to assist in the development of practical patient evacuation methods. 1) In hospitals during disasters, incident leadership of the fire authorities can be supported effectively by hospital executives experienced in the management of mass casualties; and 2) As an alternative for canvas carry sheets, rescue drag sheets can be employed for emergency, elevator-independent, patient evacuation. A hospital evacuation exercise was planned and performed to obtain experiences in incident command and to permit calculation of elevator-independent patient transport times. Performance of incident leadership was observed by means of pre-defined checklists. The effectiveness and efficiency of carrying teams with five persons each were compared to those with a rescue drag sheet employed by a single person. Incident command for hospitals during a disaster is enhanced considerably by pre-defined and trained executives who are placed at the immediate disposal of the fire authorities. For elevator-independent patient transport, the rescue drag sheet was superior to conventional carrying measures because of a reduced number of transport personnel required to move each patient. With this method, patient transport times averaged 54 m/min. flat and 18 seconds for one floor descent. Experiences from a hospital during an evacuation exercise provided decision criteria for changes in the disaster preparedness plan. Hospital incident leadership was assigned to executives-in-charge in close co-operation with the fire authorities. All beds were equipped with a rescue drag sheet. Both concepts may help to cope with an emergency evacuation of a hospital.

Prehospital injury severity of children evacuated by helicopters from combat zones: a retrospective report.

PubMed

Samuel, Nir; Hirschhorn, Gil; Chen, Jacob; Steiner, Ivan P; Shavit, Itai

2013-03-01

In Israel, the Airborne Rescue and Evacuation Unit (AREU) provides prehospital trauma care in times of peace and during times of armed conflict. In peacetime, the AREU transports children who were involved in motor vehicle collisions (MVC) and those who fall off cliffs (FOC). During armed conflict, the AREU evacuates children who sustain firearm injuries (FI) from the fighting zones. To report on prehospital injury severity of children who were evacuated by the AREU from combat zones. A retrospective comparative analysis was conducted on indicators of prehospital injury severity for patients who had MVC, FOC, and FI. It included the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) score, the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on scene, and the number of procedures performed by emergency medical personnel and by the AREU air-crew. From January 2003 to December 2009, 36 MVC, 25 FOC, and 17 FI children were transported from the scene by the AREU. Five patients were dead at the scene: 1 (2.8%) MVC, 1 (4%) FOC, and 3 (17.6%) FI. Two (11.7%) FI patients were dead on arrival at the hospital. MVC, FOC, and FI patients had mean (±SD) NACA scores of 4.4 ± 1.2, 3.6 ± 1.2, and 5 ± 0.7, respectively. Mean (±SD) GCS scores were 8.9 ± 5.6, 13.6 ± 4, and 6.9 ± 5.3, respectively. Life support interventions were required by 29 (80.6%) MVC, 3 (12%) FOC, and 15 (88.2%) FI patients. In the prehospital setting, children evacuated from combat zones were more severely injured than children who were transported from the scene during peacetime. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An empirical method for estimating travel times for wet volcanic mass flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Thomas C.

1998-01-01

Travel times for wet volcanic mass flows (debris avalanches and lahars) can be forecast as a function of distance from source when the approximate flow rate (peak discharge near the source) can be estimated beforehand. The near-source flow rate is primarily a function of initial flow volume, which should be possible to estimate to an order of magnitude on the basis of geologic, geomorphic, and hydrologic factors at a particular volcano. Least-squares best fits to plots of flow-front travel time as a function of distance from source provide predictive second-degree polynomial equations with high coefficients of determination for four broad size classes of flow based on near-source flow rate: extremely large flows (>1 000 000 m3/s), very large flows (10 000–1 000 000 m3/s), large flows (1000–10 000 m3/s), and moderate flows (100–1000 m3/s). A strong nonlinear correlation that exists between initial total flow volume and flow rate for "instantaneously" generated debris flows can be used to estimate near-source flow rates in advance. Differences in geomorphic controlling factors among different flows in the data sets have relatively little effect on the strong nonlinear correlations between travel time and distance from source. Differences in flow type may be important, especially for extremely large flows, but this could not be evaluated here. At a given distance away from a volcano, travel times can vary by approximately an order of magnitude depending on flow rate. The method can provide emergency-management officials a means for estimating time windows for evacuation of communities located in hazard zones downstream from potentially hazardous volcanoes.

Evacuation of the ICU

PubMed Central

Niven, Alexander S.; Beninati, William; Fang, Ray; Einav, Sharon; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan; Devereaux, Asha V.; Christian, Michael D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Christian, Michael D.; Devereaux, Asha V.; Dichter, Jeffrey R.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Rubinson, Lewis; Amundson, Dennis; Anderson, Michael R.; Balk, Robert; Barfield, Wanda D.; Bartz, Martha; Benditt, Josh; Beninati, William; Berkowitz, Kenneth A.; Daugherty Biddison, Lee; Braner, Dana; Branson, Richard D; Burkle, Frederick M.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Carr, Brendan G.; Courtney, Brooke; DeDecker, Lisa D.; De Jong, Marla J.; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Dries, David; Einav, Sharon; Erstad, Brian L.; Etienne, Mill; Fagbuyi, Daniel B.; Fang, Ray; Feldman, Henry; Garzon, Hernando; Geiling, James; Gomersall, Charles D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Hanfling, Dan; Hick, John L.; Hodge, James G.; Hupert, Nathaniel; Ingbar, David; Kanter, Robert K.; King, Mary A.; Kuhnley, Robert N.; Lawler, James; Leung, Sharon; Levy, Deborah A.; Lim, Matthew L.; Livinski, Alicia; Luyckx, Valerie; Marcozzi, David; Medina, Justine; Miramontes, David A.; Mutter, Ryan; Niven, Alexander S.; Penn, Matthew S.; Pepe, Paul E.; Powell, Tia; Prezant, David; Reed, Mary Jane; Rich, Preston; Rodriquez, Dario; Roxland, Beth E.; Sarani, Babak; Shah, Umair A.; Skippen, Peter; Sprung, Charles L.; Subbarao, Italo; Talmor, Daniel; Toner, Eric S.; Tosh, Pritish K.; Upperman, Jeffrey S.; Uyeki, Timothy M.; Weireter, Leonard J.; West, T. Eoin; Wilgis, John; Ornelas, Joe; McBride, Deborah; Reid, David; Baez, Amado; Baldisseri, Marie; Blumenstock, James S.; Cooper, Art; Ellender, Tim; Helminiak, Clare; Jimenez, Edgar; Krug, Steve; Lamana, Joe; Masur, Henry; Mathivha, L. Rudo; Osterholm, Michael T.; Reynolds, H. Neal; Sandrock, Christian; Sprecher, Armand; Tillyard, Andrew; White, Douglas; Wise, Robert; Yeskey, Kevin

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Despite the high risk for patient harm during unanticipated ICU evacuations, critical care providers receive little to no training on how to perform safe and effective ICU evacuations. We reviewed the pertinent published literature and offer suggestions for the critical care provider regarding ICU evacuation. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. METHODS: The Evacuation and Mobilization topic panel used the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee’s methodology to develop seven key questions for which specific literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. RESULTS: Based on current best evidence, we provide 13 suggestions outlining a systematic approach to prepare for and execute an effective ICU evacuation during a disaster. Interhospital and intrahospital collaboration and functional ICU communication are critical for success. Pre-event planning and preparation are required for a no-notice evacuation. A Critical Care Team Leader must be designated within the Hospital Incident Command System. A three-stage ICU Evacuation Timeline, including (1) no immediate threat, (2) evacuation threat, and (3) evacuation implementation, should be used. Detailed suggestions on ICU evacuation, including regional planning, evacuation drills, patient transport preparation and equipment, patient prioritization and distribution for evacuation, patient information and tracking, and federal and international evacuation assistance systems, are also provided. CONCLUSIONS: Successful ICU evacuation during a disaster requires active preparation, participation, communication, and leadership by critical care providers. Critical care providers have a professional obligation to become better educated, prepared, and engaged with the processes of ICU evacuation to provide a safe continuum of critical care during a disaster. PMID:25144509

Evacuation of the ICU: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

King, Mary A; Niven, Alexander S; Beninati, William; Fang, Ray; Einav, Sharon; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D; Grissom, Colin K

2014-10-01

Despite the high risk for patient harm during unanticipated ICU evacuations, critical care providers receive little to no training on how to perform safe and effective ICU evacuations. We reviewed the pertinent published literature and offer suggestions for the critical care provider regarding ICU evacuation. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. The Evacuation and Mobilization topic panel used the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop seven key questions for which specific literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Based on current best evidence, we provide 13 suggestions outlining a systematic approach to prepare for and execute an effective ICU evacuation during a disaster. Interhospital and intrahospital collaboration and functional ICU communication are critical for success. Pre-event planning and preparation are required for a no-notice evacuation. A Critical Care Team Leader must be designated within the Hospital Incident Command System. A three-stage ICU Evacuation Timeline, including (1) no immediate threat, (2) evacuation threat, and (3) evacuation implementation, should be used. Detailed suggestions on ICU evacuation, including regional planning, evacuation drills, patient transport preparation and equipment, patient prioritization and distribution for evacuation, patient information and tracking, and federal and international evacuation assistance systems, are also provided. Successful ICU evacuation during a disaster requires active preparation, participation, communication, and leadership by critical care providers. Critical care providers have a professional obligation to become better educated, prepared, and engaged with the processes of ICU evacuation to provide a safe continuum of critical care during a disaster.

46 CFR 133.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 133.145... LIFESAVING SYSTEMS Requirements for All OSVs § 133.145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system must have the following arrangements: (1) Each marine evacuation...

46 CFR 133.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 133.145... LIFESAVING SYSTEMS Requirements for All OSVs § 133.145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system must have the following arrangements: (1) Each marine evacuation...

46 CFR 133.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 133.145... LIFESAVING SYSTEMS Requirements for All OSVs § 133.145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system must have the following arrangements: (1) Each marine evacuation...

46 CFR 133.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 133.145... LIFESAVING SYSTEMS Requirements for All OSVs § 133.145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system must have the following arrangements: (1) Each marine evacuation...

Advanced Planning for Tsunamis in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Larkin, D.; Reade, S.; Carnathan, D.; Davis, M.; Nicolini, T.; Johnson, L.; Boldt, E.; Tardy, A.

2013-12-01

The California Tsunami Program is comprised of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) and funded through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The program works closely with the 20 coastal counties in California, as well as academic, and industry experts to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation in shoreline communities. Inundation maps depicting 'worst case' inundation modeled from plausible sources around the Pacific were released in 2009 and have provided a foundation for public evacuation and emergency response planning in California. Experience during recent tsunamis impacting the state (Japan 2011, Chile 2010, Samoa 2009) has brought to light the desire by emergency managers and decision makers for even more detailed information ahead of future tsunamis. A solution to provide enhanced information has been development of 'playbooks' to plan for a variety of expected tsunami scenarios. Elevation 'playbook' lines can be useful for partial tsunami evacuations when enough information about forecast amplitude and arrival times is available to coastal communities and there is sufficient time to make more educated decisions about who to evacuate for a given scenario or actual event. NOAA-issued Tsunami Alert Bulletins received in advance of a distant event will contain an expected wave height (a number) for each given section of coast. Provision of four elevation lines for possible inundation enables planning for different evacuation scenarios based on the above number potentially alleviating the need for an 'all or nothing' decision with regard to evacuation. Additionally an analytical tool called FASTER is being developed to integrate storm, tides, modeling errors, and local tsunami run-up potential with the forecasted tsunami amplitudes in real-time when a tsunami Alert is sent out. Both of these products will help communities better implement evacuations and response activities for minor to moderate (less than maximum) tsunami events. A working group comprised of federal, state, and local governmental scientists, emergency managers, first responders, and community planners has explored details and delivery of the above tools for incorporation into emergency management protocols. The eventual outcome will be inclusion in plans, testing of protocols and methods via drills and exercises and application, as appropriate, during an impending tsunami event.

Injury patterns in clashes between citizens and security forces during forced evacuation.

PubMed

Schwartz, D; Bar-Dayan, Y

2008-10-01

Clashes between state security forces and civilian populations can lead to mass casualty incidents (MCI), challenging emergency medical service (EMS) systems, hospitals and medical management systems. In January 2006, clashes erupted between Israeli security forces and settlers, around the forced evacuation of the Amona outpost. Data collected during the events and in subsequent formal debriefings were processed to identify the specifics of an MCI caused by forced evacuation. Pre-event preparedness, time and types of injuries encountered were evaluated among evacuated civilians and security forces members, their transport to hospitals, care received and follow-up. The event is described according to DISAST-CIR methodology. Data were entered on MS Excel (2003) and analysis was carried out using SPSS version 12. 4000 police personnel (backed by army forces) clashed for 12 h with approximately 5000 settlers. 229 injured (174 settlers and 55 security personnel) were cared for at six receiving hospitals. A total of 16 were evacuated by aeromedical evacuation, including one severely head-injured policeman. Settlers used sticks, stones and cement blocks, whereas police used mounted riders, batons and shields. Head injuries were the most common injuries among settlers (50%), whereas extremity injuries dominated among security forces members (72.7%). Large-scale clashes between state security forces and citizens may cause numerous injuries, even if firearms and explosives are not used. Despite the fact that almost all injuries were mild, the incident burdened local medical teams, EMS and Jerusalem hospitals. A predominance of head injuries was found among injured settlers and extremity injuries among injured security forces.

Hydroclimatic influence on particle size distribution of suspended sediments evacuated from debris-covered Chorabari Glacier, upper Mandakini catchment, central Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Amit; Gokhale, Anupam Anand; Shukla, Tanuj; Dobhal, Dwarika Prasad

2016-07-01

Sediments released from high altitude glaciers exhibit varying evacuation patterns and transport characteristics owing to the presence of thick debris cover over the glacier. Despite the recent needs for integrated hydrometeorological studies in the Himalaya, little is known about the impacts of suspended sediment on hydropower generation, reservoir sedimentation, and abrasion of turbine components. Present study involves analysis of particle size distribution of suspended sediments to understand sediment evacuation patterns and transport characteristics in variable energy conditions during the ablation season. Peak suspended sediments were evacuated during extreme rainfall events. The estimated seasonal modern sediment erosion rate varies from 0.6 to 2.3 mm y- 1 for the study period (2009-2012). The analysis shows dominance of medium silt-sized to fine sand-sized particles having sediment size of 0.0156-0.25 mm corresponding to 70-80% without any significant seasonal variation. These transported sediments show that they are poorly sorted, coarser in nature with a nearly symmetrical to coarse skewed texture and kurtosis analysis suggesting mesokurtic distribution of sediments. The particle size fraction ranges between 4.65 and 5.23 ϕ, which is dominantly medium to coarse silty in texture. Results indicate that suspended sediments are evacuated in highly variable energy conditions through subglacial transport pathways because of increase in availability of meltwater with the progressive ablation season. Bulk geochemical characterization has been carried out to differentiate the source of suspended sediments and intensity of weathering. Chemical Index of Alterations (CIA) values of sediment flux range from 54.68 to 55.18 compared to the Upper Continental Crust (UCC) ~ 50, indicating moderate intensity of weathering. Mean seasonal (2009-2012) elemental fluxes and their contribution to the suspended sediment flux reflect that Si and Al are responsible for about 85% of the total detrital elemental flux. Trace elements show high concentrations of radioactive elements like U, Th, Pb, and Rb that suggest their high anomalous presence in the catchment lithology. An overall study indicates that the hydroclimatic conditions over the debris-covered glacier play a dominant controlling factor in erosion, transportation, and evacuation of suspended sediments during the ablation season.

Accuracy of Four Imaging Techniques for Diagnosis of Posterior Pelvic Floor Disorders.

PubMed

van Gruting, Isabelle M A; Stankiewicz, Aleksandra; Kluivers, Kirsten; De Bin, Riccardo; Blake, Helena; Sultan, Abdul H; Thakar, Ranee

2017-11-01

To establish the diagnostic test accuracy of evacuation proctography, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), transperineal ultrasonography, and endovaginal ultrasonography for detecting posterior pelvic floor disorders (rectocele, enterocele, intussusception, and anismus) in women with obstructed defecation syndrome and secondarily to identify the most patient-friendly imaging technique. In this prospective cohort study, 131 women with symptoms of obstructed defecation syndrome underwent evacuation proctogram, MRI, and transperineal and endovaginal ultrasonography. Images were analyzed by two blinded observers. In the absence of a reference standard, latent class analysis was used to assess diagnostic test accuracy of multiple tests with area under the curve (AUC) as the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcome measures were interobserver agreement calculated as Cohen's κ and patient acceptability using a visual analog scale. No significant differences in diagnostic accuracy were found among the imaging techniques for all the target conditions. Estimates of diagnostic test accuracy were highest for rectocele using MRI (AUC 0.79) or transperineal ultrasonography (AUC 0.85), for enterocele using transperineal (AUC 0.73) or endovaginal ultrasonography (AUC 0.87), for intussusception using evacuation proctography (AUC 0.76) or endovaginal ultrasonography (AUC 0.77), and for anismus using endovaginal (AUC 0.95) or transperineal ultrasonography (AUC 0.78). Interobserver agreement for the diagnosis of rectocele (κ 0.53-0.72), enterocele (κ 0.54-0.94) and anismus (κ 0.43-0.81) was moderate to excellent, but poor to fair for intussusception (κ -0.03 to 0.37) with all techniques. Patient acceptability was better for transperineal and endovaginal ultrasonography as compared with MRI and evacuation proctography (P<.001). Evacuation proctography, MRI, and transperineal and endovaginal ultrasonography were shown to have similar diagnostic test accuracy. Evacuation proctography is not the best available imaging technique. There is no one optimal test for the diagnosis of all posterior pelvic floor disorders. Because transperineal and endovaginal ultrasonography have good test accuracy and patient acceptability, we suggest these could be used for initial assessment of obstructed defecation syndrome. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02239302.

46 CFR 199.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 199.145....145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system... from the marine evacuation system platform by a person either in the liferaft or on the platform; (4...

46 CFR 199.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 199.145....145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system... from the marine evacuation system platform by a person either in the liferaft or on the platform; (4...

46 CFR 199.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 199.145....145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system... from the marine evacuation system platform by a person either in the liferaft or on the platform; (4...

46 CFR 199.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 199.145....145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system... from the marine evacuation system platform by a person either in the liferaft or on the platform; (4...

46 CFR 199.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 199.145....145 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system... from the marine evacuation system platform by a person either in the liferaft or on the platform; (4...

Can cooperative behaviors promote evacuation efficiency?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuan; Zheng, Xiaoping

2018-02-01

This study aims to get insight into the question whether cooperative behaviors can promote the evacuation efficiency during an evacuation process. In this work, cooperative behaviors and evacuation efficiency have been examined in detail by using a cellular automata model with behavioral extension. The simulation results show that moderate cooperative behaviors can result in the highest evacuation efficiency. It is found that in a mixture of cooperative and competitive individuals, more cooperative people will lead to relatively high evacuation efficiency, and the larger subgroup will play a leading role. This work can also provide some new insights for the study of cooperative behaviors and evacuation efficiency which can be a scientific decision-making basis for emergency response involving large-scale crowd evacuation in emergencies.

Reflection on Lessons Learned: An Analysis of the Adverse Outcomes Observed During the Hurricane Rita Evacuation.

PubMed

Baker, Karen

2018-02-01

In September 2005, nearly 3.7 million people evacuated the Texas coastline in advance of Hurricane Rita's landfall, making the event the largest emergency evacuation in US history. The Rita evacuation underscored the importance of planning for domestic mass-evacuation events, as the evacuation itself led to over 100 of the at least 119 deaths attributed to the storm. In the days preceding Rita's landfall, several cascading, interrelated circumstances precipitated such adverse outcomes. This article explores the series of events leading up to the evacuation's poor outcomes, the response following Rita to amend evacuation plans, and how Texas successfully implemented these changes during later storms to achieve better outcomes. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:115-120).

The long-term impact of war experiences and evacuation on people who were children during World War Two.

PubMed

Waugh, Melinda J; Robbins, Ian; Davies, Stephen; Feigenbaum, Janet

2007-03-01

During World War Two 1.9 million people were evacuated from British cities where the risk of bombing was perceived to be highest. 1.5 million of these were children who, often unaccompanied, were sent to live with strangers. Two hundred and forty-five people who were evacuated as children were compared with 96 of similar age who did not experience evacuation. Within this self-selected sample, significant numbers of the evacuees were found to have experienced abuse and neglect. Pre-evacuation abuse made continued abuse likely during evacuation, while abuse during evacuation led to children being more likely to continue to be abused on their return home. Abuse during evacuation led to increased scores on the Impact of Event Scale and General Health Questionnaire, and to insecure attachment patterns. The role of evacuation and abuse in the maintenance of long-term psychological problems is discussed.

Nursing home evacuation plans.

PubMed

Castle, Nicholas G

2008-07-01

I examined evacuation plans from 2134 nursing homes and analyzed national data to determine the types of nursing homes cited for deficiencies in their evacuation plans. Evacuation plans were assessed according to criteria developed by an expert panel funded by the Office of the Inspector General. Deficiency citations came from the Online Survey, Certification, and Recording database, collected from 1997 to 2005. Four specific citations, for written emergency plans, staff training, written evacuation plans, and fire drills, were examined with multivariate logistic regression. Most plans had water supply provisions (96%). Only 31% specified an evacuation route. The rate of citations was relatively stable throughout the study period: each year approximately 0.6% of facilities were found to be deficient in written emergency plans, 2.1% in staff training, 1.2% in written evacuation plans, and 7.9% in fire drills. Some nursing homes need more specific evacuation plans. Water supply was the most and evacuation routes were the least well-addressed areas.

Beyond usual care: the economic consequences of expanding treatment options in early pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Dalton, Vanessa K; Liang, Angela; Hutton, David W; Zochowski, Melissa K; Fendrick, A Mark

2015-02-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of expanding options for early pregnancy loss (EPL) treatment beyond expectant management and operating room surgical evacuation (usual care). We constructed a decision model using a hypothetical cohort of women undergoing EPL management within a 30 day horizon. Treatment options under the usual care arm include expectant management and surgical uterine evacuation in an operating room (OR). Treatment options under the expanded care arm included all evidence-based safe and effective treatment options for EPL: expectant management, misoprostol treatment, surgical uterine evacuation in an office setting, and surgical uterine evacuation in an OR. Probabilities of entering various treatment pathways were based on previously published observational studies. The cost per case was US $241.29 lower for women undergoing treatment in the expanded care model as compared with the usual care model (US $1033.29 per case vs US $1274.58 per case, expanded care and usual care, respectively). The model was the most sensitive to the failure rate of the expectant management arm, the cost of the OR surgical procedure, the proportion of women undergoing an OR surgical procedure under usual care, and the additional cost per patient associated with implementing and using the expanded care model. This study demonstrates that expanding women's treatment options for EPL beyond what is typically available can result in lower direct medical expenditures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rumen passage kinetics of forage- and concentrate-derived fiber in dairy cows.

PubMed

Krämer, M; Lund, P; Weisbjerg, M R

2013-05-01

Rumen passage kinetics of forage and concentrate fiber were analyzed to determine intrinsic feed effects and extrinsic ration effects on the retention time of fiber in the rumen. Sixteen Danish Holstein cows (557 ± 37 kg of body weight, 120 ± 21 d in milk, mean ± SD), 8 fitted with ruminal cannulas, were used in a completely randomized block experiment. Treatments differed in forage type (corn silage vs. grass silage) and forage:concentrate ratio (50:50 vs. 75:25 on organic matter basis). Fiber passage kinetics were studied based on rumen evacuations and on marker excretion profiles in feces fitted to 1 and 2 pool models. Each cow received ytterbium (Yb)-labeled fiber of the forage fed in the ration, samarium (Sm)-labeled fiber of the forage not fed in the ration, and concentrate fiber labeled with lanthanum (La), all as a single pulse dose. Nineteen fecal grab samples were taken per cow. Rumen liquid passage was studied using chromium-EDTA dosed as a single pulse into the rumen, followed by sampling of rumen liquid from both the ventral and medial rumen. Rumen mean retention time did not differ between forages when based on Yb-excretion profiles but was numerically longer for grass silage- than for corn silage-based rations using rumen evacuation data. Liquid rate of passage did not differ when calculated from medial or ventral rumen liquid samples, indicating that estimates for the probability of rumen liquid escape were independent of rumen sampling site. Total mean retention time decreased from forage fiber to concentrate fiber to liquid. The forage type itself (corn silage or grass silage) rather than the ration composition seemed to determine the total-tract retention time of forage fiber. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An observation of the walking speed of evacuees during a simulated tsunami evacuation in Padang, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yosritzal; Kemal, B. M.; Purnawan; Putra, H.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a simulation study to observe the walking speed of evacuee in the case of tsunami evacuation in Padang, West Sumatera, Indonesia. A number of 9 volunteers, 6 observers, 1 route with 5 segments were involved in the simulation. The chosen route is the easiest path and the volunteers were ordered to walk in hurry to a particular place which was assumed as a shelter. The observers were placed at some particular places to record the time when an evacuee passes their place. The distance between the observers were measured using a manual distance meter. The study found that the average walking speed during the evacuation was 1.419 m/s. Walking speed is varied by age and gender of the evacuee.

Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

2014-12-04

When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

2014-01-01

When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data. PMID:25472861

Fully Endoscopic Freehand Evacuation of Spontaneous Supratentorial Intraparenchymal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Angileri, Filippo Flavio; Esposito, Felice; Priola, Stefano Maria; Raffa, Giovanni; Marino, Daniele; Abbritti, Rosaria Viola; Giusa, Maria; Germanò, Antonino; Tomasello, Francesco

2016-10-01

A modification of other reported endoscopic techniques for intracerebral clot evacuation is described and illustrated. From January 2014 to December 2014, we operated on 6 patients harboring a spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage using a fully endoscopic freehand technique. Clinical chart and surgical videos were analyzed. Volumetric evaluation of the clot preoperatively and the residual hematoma postoperatively was performed. Clinical outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale and Glasgow Outcome Scale. The mean operative time was 96 minutes (range, 72-125 minutes). Clot evacuation was >90% in all patients. No patient experienced rebleeding after surgery. Two patients died. The Glasgow Outcome Scale score at 6 months was 4 in 2 patients, 3 in 2 patients, and 1 (death) in 2 patients. The modified Rankin Scale score at 6 months was 6 (death) in 2 patients, 4 in 2 patients, 3 in 1 patient and 2 in 1 patient. The proposed minimally invasive technique allows a good rate of hematoma evacuation and intraoperative bleeding control. Further studies in large series are needed to confirm the role of this freehand endoscopic technique. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Preparedness in Long-Term Care: A Novel Approach to Address Gaps in Evacuation Tracking.

PubMed

Prot, Emilie Y; Clements, Bruce

2017-02-01

With an aging population, the number of elderly individuals residing in long-term care (LTC) facilities will continue to grow and pose unique challenges to disaster preparedness and response. With this rapidly growing vulnerable population, it becomes imperative to identify enhanced and novel preparedness strategies and measures. LTC residents not only have complicated medical needs, including the timing of dispensing multiple medications, but frequently have cognitive and mobility deficits as well. In nearly every major disaster, elderly populations have suffered disproportionate morbidity and mortality. This is often due to elderly evacuees getting overlooked in the chaos of an initial response. Instituting measures to rapidly recognize this population in a crowd during an evacuation will reduce their risk. This commentary reviews the LTC facility evacuation challenges of the 2013 explosion of the West Fertilizer Company plant in West, Texas, and offers a novel solution of mandating the wearing of pink vests by all nursing home residents in case of an evacuation. The pink vests quickly alert disaster rescue and response workers of LTC residents with special needs. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:28-30).

Epidemic activity after natural disasters without high mortality in developing settings

PubMed Central

Loayza-Alarico, Manuel J; Lescano, Andres G; Suarez-Ognio, Luis A; Ramirez-Prada, Gladys M; Blazes, David L

2013-01-01

Natural disasters with minimal human mortality rarely capture headlines but occur frequently and result in significant morbidity and economic loss. We compared the epidemic activity observed after a flood, an earthquake, and volcanic activity in Peru. Following post-disaster guidelines, healthcare facilities and evacuation centers surveyed 10–12 significant health conditions for ~45 days and compared disease frequency with Poisson regression. The disasters affected 20,709 individuals and 15% were placed in evacuation centers. Seven deaths and 6,056 health conditions were reported (mean: 0.29 per person). Health facilities reported fewer events than evacuation centers (0.06–0.24 vs. 0.65–2.02, P < 0.001) and disease notification increased 1.6 times after the disasters (95% CI: 1.5–1.6). Acute respiratory infections were the most frequent event (41–57%) and psychological distress was second/third (7.6% to 14.3%). Morbidity increased after disasters without substantial casualties, particularly at evacuation centers, with frequent respiratory infections and psychological distress. Post-disaster surveillance is valuable even after low-mortality events. PMID:28228992

Outcomes from a US military neurology and traumatic brain injury telemedicine program.

PubMed

Yurkiewicz, Ilana R; Lappan, Charles M; Neely, Edward T; Hesselbrock, Roger R; Girard, Philip D; Alphonso, Aimee L; Tsao, Jack W

2012-09-18

This study evaluated usage of the Army Knowledge Online (AKO) Telemedicine Consultation Program for neurology and traumatic brain injury (TBI) cases in remote overseas areas with limited access to subspecialists. We performed a descriptive analysis of quantity of consults, response times, sites where consults originated, military branches that benefitted, anatomic locations of problems, and diagnoses. This was a retrospective analysis that searched electronic databases for neurology consults from October 2006 to December 2010 and TBI consults from March 2008 to December 2010. A total of 508 consults were received for neurology, and 131 consults involved TBI. For the most part, quantity of consults increased over the years. Meanwhile, response times decreased, with a mean response time of 8 hours, 14 minutes for neurology consults and 2 hours, 44 minutes for TBI consults. Most neurology consults originated in Iraq (67.59%) followed by Afghanistan (16.84%), whereas TBI consults mainly originated from Afghanistan (40.87%) followed by Iraq (33.91%). The most common consultant diagnoses were headaches, including migraines (52.1%), for neurology cases and mild TBI/concussion (52.3%) for TBI cases. In the majority of cases, consultants recommended in-theater management. After receipt of consultant's recommendation, 84 known neurology evacuations were facilitated, and 3 known neurology evacuations were prevented. E-mail-based neurology and TBI subspecialty teleconsultation is a viable method for overseas providers in remote locations to receive expert recommendations for a range of neurologic conditions. These recommendations can facilitate medically necessary patient evacuations or prevent evacuations for which on-site care is preferable.

Optimization-based decision support to assist in logistics planning for hospital evacuations.

PubMed

Glick, Roger; Bish, Douglas R; Agca, Esra

2013-01-01

The evacuation of the hospital is a very complex process and evacuation planning is an important part of a hospital's emergency management plan. There are numerous factors that affect the evacuation plan including the nature of threat, availability of resources and staff the characteristics of the evacuee population, and risk to patients and staff. The safety and health of patients is of fundamental importance, but safely moving patients to alternative care facilities while under threat is a very challenging task. This article describes the logistical issues and complexities involved in planning and execution of hospital evacuations. Furthermore, this article provides examples of how optimization-based decision support tools can help evacuation planners to better plan for complex evacuations by providing real-world solutions to various evacuation scenarios.

Access to Care in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey, 2012.

PubMed

Davidow, Amy L; Thomas, Pauline; Kim, Soyeon; Passannante, Marian; Tsai, Stella; Tan, Christina

2016-06-01

Evacuation and damage following a widespread natural disaster may affect short-term access to medical care. We estimated medical care needs in New Jersey following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Hurricane Sandy-related questions regarding medical needs included in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey were administered to survey respondents living in New Jersey when Sandy occurred. Recently arrived foreign-born residents were more likely than US-born residents to need medical care following Sandy. Others with greater medical needs included the uninsured and evacuees. Persons who evacuated or lived in areas that experienced the greatest hurricane impact were less likely to be able to fill a prescription. Only 15% of New Jerseyans were aware of the Emergency Pharmaceutical Assistance Program (EPAP), a federal program which allows prescription refills for the uninsured following a disaster. Recently arrived foreign-born residents and the uninsured were less frequently aware of EPAP: 8.7% and 10.9%. Populations with impaired access to care in normal times-such as the recently arrived foreign-born and the uninsured-were also at risk of compromised access in the hurricane's aftermath. Measures to address prescription refills during a disaster need better promotion among at-risk populations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:485-491).

An assessment of the doses received by members of the public in Japan following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

PubMed

Bedwell, P; Mortimer, K; Wellings, J; Sherwood, J; Leadbetter, S J; Haywood, S M; Charnock, T; Jones, A R; Hort, M C

2015-12-01

The earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011, centred off the east coast of Japan, caused considerable destruction and substantial loss of life along large swathes of the Japanese coastline. The tsunami damaged the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), resulting in prolonged releases of radioactive material into the environment. This paper assesses the doses received by members of the public in Japan. The assessment is based on an estimated source term and atmospheric dispersion modelling rather than monitoring data. It is evident from this assessment that across the majority of Japan the estimates of dose are very low, for example they are estimated to be less than the annual average dose from natural background radiation in Japan. Even in the regions local to Fukushima Daiichi NPP (and not affected by any form of evacuation) the maximum lifetime effective dose is estimated to be well below the cumulative natural background dose over the same period. The impact of the urgent countermeasures on the estimates of dose was considered. And the relative contribution to dose from the range of exposure pathways and radionuclides were evaluated. Analysis of estimated doses focused on the geographic irregularity and the impact of the meteorological conditions. For example the dose to an infant's thyroid received over the first year was estimated to be greater in Hirono than in the non-evacuated region of Naraha, despite Hirono being further from the release location. A number of factors were identified and thought to contribute towards this outcome, including the local wind pattern which resulted in the recirculation of part of the release. The non-uniform nature of dose estimates strengthens the case for evaluations based on dispersion modelling.

Analysis of Tsunami Evacuation Issues Using Agent Based Modeling. A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Yuriage, Natori.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.

Real-time micro-modelling of city evacuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löhner, Rainald; Haug, Eberhard; Zinggerling, Claudio; Oñate, Eugenio

2018-01-01

A methodology to integrate geographical information system (GIS) data with large-scale pedestrian simulations has been developed. Advances in automatic data acquisition and archiving from GIS databases, automatic input for pedestrian simulations, as well as scalable pedestrian simulation tools have made it possible to simulate pedestrians at the individual level for complete cities in real time. An example that simulates the evacuation of the city of Barcelona demonstrates that this is now possible. This is the first step towards a fully integrated crowd prediction and management tool that takes into account not only data gathered in real time from cameras, cell phones or other sensors, but also merges these with advanced simulation tools to predict the future state of the crowd.

Fire and Heat Spreading Model Based on Cellular Automata Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartsev, A. A.; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Fominykh, D. S.

2018-05-01

The distinctive feature of the proposed fire and heat spreading model in premises is the reduction of the computational complexity due to the use of the theory of cellular automata with probability rules of behavior. The possibilities and prospects of using this model in practice are noted. The proposed model has a simple mechanism of integration with agent-based evacuation models. The joint use of these models could improve floor plans and reduce the time of evacuation from premises during fires.

Computer simulation-based framework for transportation evacuation in major trip generator.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Since emergencies including both natural disasters and man-made incidents, are happening more and more : frequently, evacuation, especially transportation evacuation, is becoming a hot research focus in recent years. : Currently, transportation evacu...

Mass chemical casualties: treatment of 41 patients with burns by anhydrous ammonia.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Zheng, Xing-Feng; Ma, Bing; Fan, Xiao-Ming; Wang, Guang-Yi; Xia, Zhao-Fan

2015-09-01

This article reports a chemical burn incident that occurred on 31 August 2013 in Shanghai. We describe situations at the scene, emergency management, triage, evacuation, and follow-up of the victims. The scene of the incident and information on the 41 victims of this industrial chemical incident were investigated. The emergency management, triage, evacuation, and hospitalization data of the patients were summarized. At the time of the incident, 58 employees were working in a closed refrigerator workshop, 41 of whom sustained burns following the leakage of anhydrous ammonia. Ten victims died of severe inhalation injury at the scene, and another five victims died during the process of evacuation to the nearest hospital. After receiving information on the incident, a contingency plan for the burn disaster was launched immediately, and a first-aid group and an emergency and triage group were dispatched by the Changhai Hospital to the scene to aid the medical organization, emergency management, triage, and evacuation. All casualties were first rushed to the nearest hospital by ambulance. The six most serious patients with inhalation injuries were evacuated to the Changhai Hospital and admitted to the burn intensive care unit (BICU) for further treatment, one of whom died of respiratory failure and pulmonary infection. This mass casualty incident of anhydrous ammonia leakage caused potential devastating effects to the society, especially to the victims and their families. Early first-aid organization, emergency management, triage, and evacuation were of paramount importance, especially rapid evaluation of the severity of inhalation injury, and subsequent corresponding medical treatment. The prognosis of ammonia burns was poor and the sequelae were severe. Management and treatment lessons were drawn from this mass casualty chemical burn incident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Conceptualization of a Collaborative Decision Making for Flood Disaster Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Aishah Zubir, Siti; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Ghazali, Azrul; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Razak, Normy Norfiza Abdul; Aziz Mat Isa, Abdul; Hasini, Hasril; Sahari, Khairul Salleh Mohamed; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Sabri Muda, Rahsidi; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; Basri, Hidayah; Tukiman, Izawati

2016-03-01

Flooding is the utmost major natural hazard in Malaysia in terms of populations affected, frequency, area extent, flood duration and social economic damage. The recent flood devastation towards the end of 2014 witnessed almost 250,000 people being displaced from eight states in Peninsular Malaysia. The affected victims required evacuation within a short period of time to the designated evacuation centres. An effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life-saving. Effective flood disaster management requires collective and cooperative emergency teamwork from various government agencies. Intergovernmental collaborations among government agencies at different levels have become part of flood disaster management due to the need for sharing resources and coordinating efforts. Collaborative decision making during disaster is an integral element in providing prompt and effective response for evacuating the victims.

Factors associated with high-rise evacuation: qualitative results from the World Trade Center Evacuation Study.

PubMed

Gershon, Robyn R M; Qureshi, Kristine A; Rubin, Marcie S; Raveis, Victoria H

2007-01-01

Due to the fact that most high-rise structures (i.e., >75 feet high, or eight to ten stories) are constructed with extensive and redundant fire safety features, current fire safety procedures typically only involve limited evacuation during minor to moderate fire emergencies. Therefore, full-scale evacuation of high-rise buildings is highly unusual and consequently, little is known about how readily and rapidly high-rise structures can be evacuated fully. Factors that either facilitate or inhibit the evacuation process remain under-studied. This paper presents results from the qualitative phase of the World Trade Center Evacuation Study, a three-year, five-phase study designed to improve our understanding of the individual, organizational, and environmental factors that helped or hindered evacuation from the World Trade Center (WTC) Towers 1 and 2, on 11 September 2001. Qualitative data from semi-structured, in-depth interviews and focus groups involving WTC evacuees were collected and analyzed. On the individual level, factors that affected evacuation included perception of risk (formed largely by sensory cues), preparedness training, degree of familiarity with the building, physical condition, health status, and footwear. Individual behavior also was affected by group behavior and leadership. At the organizational level, evacuation was affected by worksite preparedness planning, including the training and education of building occupants, and risk communication. The environmental conditions affecting evacuation included smoke, flames, debris, general condition and degree of crowdedness on staircases, and communication infrastructure systems (e.g., public address, landline, cellular and fire warden's telephones). Various factors at the individual, organizational, and environmental levels were identified that affected evacuation. Interventions that address the barriers to evacuation may improve the full-scale evacuation of other high-rise buildings under extreme conditions. Further studies should focus on the development and evaluation of targeted interventions, including model emergency preparedness planning for high-rise occupancies.

Optimization and Planning of Emergency Evacuation Routes Considering Traffic Control

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lijun; Wang, Zhaohua

2014-01-01

Emergencies, especially major ones, happen fast, randomly, as well as unpredictably, and generally will bring great harm to people's life and the economy. Therefore, governments and lots of professionals devote themselves to taking effective measures and providing optimal evacuation plans. This paper establishes two different emergency evacuation models on the basis of the maximum flow model (MFM) and the minimum-cost maximum flow model (MC-MFM), and proposes corresponding algorithms for the evacuation from one source node to one designated destination (one-to-one evacuation). Ulteriorly, we extend our evaluation model from one source node to many designated destinations (one-to-many evacuation). At last, we make case analysis of evacuation optimization and planning in Beijing, and obtain the desired evacuation routes and effective traffic control measures from the perspective of sufficiency and practicability. Both analytical and numerical results support that our models are feasible and practical. PMID:24991636

Gastric evacuation rate, index of fullness, and daily ration of Lake Michigan slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mychek-Londer, Justin G.; Bunnell, David B.

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of fish consumption are required to understand trophic interactions and facilitate ecosystem-based fishery management. Despite their importance within the food-web, no method currently exists to estimate daily consumption for Great Lakes slimy (Cottus cognatus) and deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii). We conducted experiments to estimate gastric evacuation (GEVAC) and collected field data from Lake Michigan to estimate index of fullness [(g prey/g fish weight)100%) to determine daily ration for water temperatures ranging 2–5 °C, coinciding with the winter and early spring season. Exponential GEVAC rates equaled 0.0115/h for slimy sculpin and 0.0147/h for deepwater sculpin, and did not vary between 2.7 °C and 5.1 °C for either species or between prey types (Mysis relicta and fish eggs) for slimy sculpin. Index of fullness varied with fish size, and averaged 1.93% and 1.85% for slimy and deepwater sculpins, respectively. Maximum index of fullness was generally higher (except for the smallest sizes) for both species in 2009–2010 than in 1976 despite reductions in a primary prey, Diporeia spp. Predictive daily ration equations were derived as a function of fish dry weight. Estimates of daily consumption ranged from 0.2 to 0.8% of their body weight, which was within the low range of estimates from other species at comparably low water temperatures. These results provide a tool to estimate the consumptive demand of sculpins which will improve our understanding of benthic offshore food webs and aid in management and restoration of these native species in the Great Lakes.

Evaluating the Human Damage of Tsunami at Each Time Frame in Aggregate Units Based on GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Y.; Akiyama, Y.; Kanasugi, H.; Shibasaki, R.; Kaneda, H.

2016-06-01

Assessments of the human damage caused by the tsunami are required in order to consider disaster prevention at such a regional level. Hence, there is an increasing need for the assessments of human damage caused by earthquakes. However, damage assessments in japan currently usually rely on static population distribution data, such as statistical night time population data obtained from national census surveys. Therefore, human damage estimation that take into consideration time frames have not been assessed yet. With these backgrounds, the objectives of this study are: to develop a method for estimating the population distribution of the for each time frame, based on location positioning data observed with mass GPS loggers of mobile phones, to use a evacuation and casualties models for evaluating human damage due to the tsunami, and evaluate each time frame by using the data developed in the first objective, and 3) to discuss the factors which cause the differences in human damage for each time frame. By visualizing the results, we clarified the differences in damage depending on time frame, day and area. As this study enables us to assess damage for any time frame in and high resolution, it will be useful to consider provision for various situations when an earthquake may hit, such as during commuting hours or working hours and week day or holiday.

Flexible endoscope-assisted evacuation of chronic subdural hematomas.

PubMed

Májovský, Martin; Masopust, Václav; Netuka, David; Beneš, Vladimír

2016-10-01

Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a common neurosurgical condition with an increasing incidence. Standard treatment of CSDHs is surgical evacuation. The objective of this study is to present a modification of standard burr-hole hematoma evacuation using a flexible endoscope and to assess the advantages and risks. Prospectively, 34 consecutive patients diagnosed with CSDH were included in the study. Epidemiological, clinical and radiographical data were collected and reviewed. All patients underwent a burr-hole evacuation of CSDH. A flexible endoscope was inserted and subdural space inspected during surgery. The surgeon was looking specifically for the presence of septations, draining catheter position and acute bleeding. Thirty-four patients underwent 37 endoscope-assisted surgeries. Presenting symptoms were hemiparesis (79%), decreased level of consciousness (18%), gait disturbances (15%), headache (12%), aphasia (6%), cognitive disturbances (6%) and epileptic seizure (3%). Average operative time was 43 min, and the average increase in operative time due to the use of the endoscope was 6 min. Recurrence rate was 8.8%, and clinical outcome was favorable (defined as mRS ≤ 2) in 97% of the cases. To our knowledge, the present cohort of 34 patients is the largest group of patients with CSDH treated using an endoscope. This technique allows decent visualization of the hematoma cavity while retaining the advantages of a minimally invasive approach under a local anesthesia. The main advantages are correct positioning of the catheter under visual control, identification of septations and early detection of cortex or vessel injury during surgery.

Radiation dose reduction efficiency of buildings after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

PubMed

Monzen, Satoru; Hosoda, Masahiro; Osanai, Minoru; Tokonami, Shinji

2014-01-01

Numerous radionuclides were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (F1-NPS) in Japan following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. Local residents have been eager to calculate their individual radiation exposure. Thus, absorbed dose rates in the indoor and outdoor air at evacuation sites in the Fukushima Prefecture were measured using a gamma-ray measuring devices, and individual radiation exposure was calculated by assessing the radiation dose reduction efficiency (defined as the ratio of absorbed dose rate in the indoor air to the absorbed dose rate in the outdoor air) of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings. Between March 2011 and July 2011, dose reduction efficiencies of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings were 0.55 ± 0.04, 0.15 ± 0.02, and 0.19 ± 0.04, respectively. The reduction efficiency of wood structures was 1.4 times higher than that reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The efficiency of reinforced concrete was similar to previously reported values, whereas that of aluminum structures has not been previously reported. Dose reduction efficiency increased in proportion to the distance from F1-NPS at 8 of the 18 evacuation sites. Time variations did not reflect dose reduction efficiencies at evacuation sites although absorbed dose rates in the outdoor air decreased. These data suggest that dose reduction efficiency depends on structure types, levels of contamination, and evacuee behaviors at evacuation sites.

The Communication of Information Such as Evacuation Orders at the Time of a Nuclear Power Station Accident

PubMed Central

HATANAKA, Takashi; YOSHIDA, Sumito; OJINO, Mayo; ISHII, Masami

2014-01-01

This research was carried out from the perspective that the damage to the people of Fukushima and others from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) accident was an “information disaster.” It evaluated the critical problems raised by and actual condition analysis on the process of events in the Fukushima Daiichi NPS disaster and responses of the governments and others, notification of the occurrence of the accident and evacuation order by the national and local governments and the evacuation of residents, and guidance for distribution and intake of stable iodine tablets. The research aimed to provide a basis for the implementation of effective distribution and intake of stable iodine tablets and responses to the “information disaster” in the nuclear power disaster. On March 15 at the time that the most radioactive substances were dispersed, even when the average wind speed at the site area was 1.6 m/s, the radioactive substances had reached the outer boundary of Urgent Protective action planning Zone (UPZ, the region with a radius of 30 km) within about five hours. Because of this, every second counted in the provision of information about the accident and the issuance of evacuation orders. This study evaluated the actual condition of information provision by the national government and others from the perspective of this awareness of the importance of time. On the basis of the results of this kind of consideration, we come to the following recommendations: The Nuclear Emergency Response Guidelines and the system for communication of information to medical providers should be revised. The national government should make preparations for the effective advance distribution and intake of stable iodine tablets. PMID:26557446

Routes to effective evacuation planning primer series : evacuating populations with special needs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-01

Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

Evidence from dynamic integrated proctography to redefine anismus.

PubMed

Roberts, J P; Womack, N R; Hallan, R I; Thorpe, A C; Williams, N S

1992-11-01

The role of anismus in the aetiology of defective rectal evacuation was investigated by dynamic integrated proctography in 20 controls and 71 constipated patients. Normal parameters were defined and compared between 21 constipated patients with poor evacuation during proctography (< 40 per cent of contrast evacuated; group 1) and 50 who evacuated fully (> 90 per cent of contrast evacuated; group 2). Nine patients in group 1 failed to evacuate. Radiological abnormalities of the rectum were recorded in all groups but obstructed evacuation was not observed. Anismus (defined as a recruitment of puborectalis electromyogram (EMG) activity of > 50 per cent) was significantly more common in group 1 than group 2 patients (14 of 21 versus 12 of 50, P < 0.01) and present in seven of those unable to evacuate. Eight patients in group 1 failed to raise intrarectal pressure > 50 cmH2O compared with two in group 2 (P < 0.001). Six patients in group 1 demonstrated both anismus and inability to raise intrarectal pressure, which may combine to cause defective evacuation. EMG recruitment alone is insufficient to diagnose anismus. Definition should be based on three criteria: demonstration of puborectalis EMG recruitment of > 50 per cent; evidence of an adequate level of intrarectal pressure (> 50 cmH2O) on straining; and presence of defective evacuation.

Association of the World War II Finnish Evacuation of Children With Psychiatric Hospitalization in the Next Generation.

PubMed

Santavirta, Torsten; Santavirta, Nina; Gilman, Stephen E

2018-01-01

Although there is evidence that adverse childhood experiences are associated with worse mental health in adulthood, scarce evidence is available regarding an emerging concern that the next generation might also be affected. To compare the risk of psychiatric hospitalization in cousins whose parents were vs were not exposed to the Finnish evacuation policy that involved a mean 2-year stay with a Swedish foster family. This multigenerational, population-based cohort study of Finnish individuals and their siblings born between January 1, 1933, and December 31, 1944, analyzed the association of evacuee status as a child during World War II in the first generation with the risk of psychiatric hospitalization among offspring in the second generation. Evacuee status during World War II was determined using the Finnish National Archive's registry of participants in the Finnish evacuation. Data on evacuee status were linked to the psychiatric diagnoses in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register from January 1, 1971, through December 31, 2012, for offspring (n = 93 391) born between January 1, 1950, and December 31, 2010. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios for risk of psychiatric hospitalization during the follow-up period. Because offspring of evacuees and their nonevacuated siblings are cousins, the Cox proportional hazards regression models included fixed effects to adjust for confounding factors in families. Data analysis was performed from June 15, 2016, to August 26, 2017. Parental participation in the evacuation during World War II (coded 1 for parents who were evacuated and placed in foster care and 0 for those not evacuated). Offspring's initial admission to the hospital for a psychiatric disorder, obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register from January 1, 1971, through December 31, 2012. Of the 93 391 study persons, 45 955 (49.2%) were women and 47 436 (50.8) were men; mean (SD) age in 2012 among survivors was 45.4 (6.58) years. Female offspring of mothers evacuated to Sweden during childhood had an elevated risk of psychiatric hospitalization (hazard ratio for any type of psychiatric disorder: 2.04 [95% CI, 1.04-4.01]; hazard ratio for mood disorder: 4.68 [95% CI, 1.92-11.42]). There was no excess risk of being hospitalized for a psychiatric disorder among women whose fathers were exposed to the Finnish evacuation policy during World War II or among men whose mothers or fathers were exposed. In a prior follow-up study of the Finnish evacuees, girls evacuated to Swedish foster families during World War II were more likely to be hospitalized for a psychiatric disorder-in particular, a mood disorder-in adulthood than their nonevacuated sisters. The present study found that the offspring of these individuals were also at risk for mental health problems that required hospitalization and suggests that early-life adversities, including war-related exposures, may be associated with mental health disorders that persist across generations.

The Fukushima Health Management Survey: estimation of external doses to residents in Fukushima Prefecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ozasa, Kotaro; Kobashi, Gen; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Miyazaki, Makoto; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Sakata, Ritsu; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi

2015-08-01

The Fukushima Health Management Survey (including the Basic Survey for external dose estimation and four detailed surveys) was launched after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The Basic Survey consists of a questionnaire that asks Fukushima Prefecture residents about their behavior in the first four months after the accident; and responses to the questionnaire have been returned from many residents. The individual external doses are estimated by using digitized behavior data and a computer program that included daily gamma ray dose rate maps drawn after the accident. The individual external doses of 421,394 residents for the first four months (excluding radiation workers) had a distribution as follows: 62.0%, <1 mSv 94.0%, <2 mSv 99.4%, <3 mSv. The arithmetic mean and maximum for the individual external doses were 0.8 and 25 mSv, respectively. While most dose estimation studies were based on typical scenarios of evacuation and time spent inside/outside, the Basic Survey estimated doses considering individually different personal behaviors. Thus, doses for some individuals who did not follow typical scenarios could be revealed. Even considering such extreme cases, the estimated external doses were generally low and no discernible increased incidence of radiation-related health effects is expected.

The Fukushima Health Management Survey: estimation of external doses to residents in Fukushima Prefecture

PubMed Central

Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Yasumura, Seiji; Ozasa, Kotaro; Kobashi, Gen; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Miyazaki, Makoto; Akahane, Keiichi; Yonai, Shunsuke; Ohtsuru, Akira; Sakai, Akira; Sakata, Ritsu; Kamiya, Kenji; Abe, Masafumi

2015-01-01

The Fukushima Health Management Survey (including the Basic Survey for external dose estimation and four detailed surveys) was launched after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The Basic Survey consists of a questionnaire that asks Fukushima Prefecture residents about their behavior in the first four months after the accident; and responses to the questionnaire have been returned from many residents. The individual external doses are estimated by using digitized behavior data and a computer program that included daily gamma ray dose rate maps drawn after the accident. The individual external doses of 421,394 residents for the first four months (excluding radiation workers) had a distribution as follows: 62.0%, <1 mSv; 94.0%, <2 mSv; 99.4%, <3 mSv. The arithmetic mean and maximum for the individual external doses were 0.8 and 25 mSv, respectively. While most dose estimation studies were based on typical scenarios of evacuation and time spent inside/outside, the Basic Survey estimated doses considering individually different personal behaviors. Thus, doses for some individuals who did not follow typical scenarios could be revealed. Even considering such extreme cases, the estimated external doses were generally low and no discernible increased incidence of radiation-related health effects is expected. PMID:26239643

Evacuate or Shelter-in-place? The Role of Corporate Memory and Political Environment in Hospital-evacuation Decision Making.

PubMed

Ricci, Karen A; Griffin, Anne R; Heslin, Kevin C; Kranke, Derrick; Dobalian, Aram

2015-06-01

Hospital-evacuation decisions are rarely straightforward in protracted advance-warning events. Previous work provides little insight into the decision-making process around evacuation. This study was conducted to identify factors that most heavily influenced the decisions to evacuate the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) New York Harbor Healthcare System's (NYHHS; New York USA) Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene in 2011 and before Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Semi-structured interviews with 11 senior leaders were conducted on the processes and factors that influenced the evacuation decisions prior to each event. The most influential factor in the decision to evacuate the Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene was New York City's (NYC's) hospital-evacuation mandate. As a federal facility, the Manhattan VA medical center (VAMC) was exempt from the city's order, but decision makers felt compelled to comply. In the case of Superstorm Sandy, corporate memory of a similar 1992 storm that crippled the Manhattan facility drove the decision to evacuate before the storm hit. Results suggest that hospital-evacuation decisions are confounded by political considerations and are influenced by past disaster experience. Greater shared situational awareness among at-risk hospitals, along with a more coordinated approach to evacuation decision making, could reduce pressure on hospitals to make these high-stakes decisions. Systematic mechanisms for collecting, documenting, and sharing lessons learned from past disasters are sorely needed at the institutional, local, and national levels.

21 CFR 876.4370 - Gastroenterology-urology evacuator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. 876.4370... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES GASTROENTEROLOGY-UROLOGY DEVICES Surgical Devices § 876.4370 Gastroenterology-urology evacuator. (a) Identification. A gastroenterology-urology evacuator is a device used to remove...

[Medical abortion provided by telemedicine to women in Latin America: complications and their treatment].

PubMed

Larrea, Sara; Palència, Laia; Perez, Glòria

2015-01-01

To analyze reported complications and their treatment after a medical abortion with mifepristone and misoprostol provided by a telemedicine service to women living in Latin America. Observational study based on the registry of consultations in a telemedicine service. A total of 872 women who used the service in 2010 and 2011 participated in the study. The dependent variables were overall complications, hemorrhage, incomplete abortion, overall treatments, surgical evacuation, and antibiotics. Independent variables were age, area of residence, socioeconomic deprivation, previous children, pregnancies and abortions, and week of pregnancy. We fitted Poisson regression models with robust variance to estimate incidence ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Complications were reported by 14.6% of the participants: 6.2% reported hemorrhage and 6.8% incomplete abortion. Nearly one-fifth (19.0%) received postabortion treatment: 10.9% had a surgical evacuation and 9.3% took antibiotics. Socioeconomic deprivation increased the risk of complications by 64% (95%CI: 15%-132%), and, among these, the risk of incomplete abortion by 82% (95%CI: 8%-206%) and the risk of surgical intervention by 62% (95%CI: 7%-144%). Previous pregnancies increased the risk of complications and, specifically, the risk of hemorrhage by 2.29 times (95%CI: 1.33-3.95%). Women with a pregnancy of 12 or more weeks had a 2.45 times higher risk of receiving medical treatment and a 2.94 times higher risk of taking antibiotics compared with women with pregnancies of 7 or less weeks. Medical abortion provided by telemedicine seems to be a safe and effective alternative in contexts where it is legally restricted. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Evacuation Priorities in Mass Casualty Terror-Related Events

PubMed Central

Einav, Sharon; Feigenberg, Zvi; Weissman, Charles; Zaichik, Daniel; Caspi, Guy; Kotler, Doron; Freund, Herbert R.

2004-01-01

Objective: To assess evacuation priorities during terror-related mass casualty incidents (MCIs) and their implications for hospital organization/contingency planning. Summary Background Data: Trauma guidelines recommend evacuation of critically injured patients to Level I trauma centers. The recent MCIs in Israel offered an opportunity to study the impositions placed on a prehospital emergency medical service (EMS) regarding evacuation priorities in these circumstances. Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical evacuations from MCIs (29.9.2000–31.9.2002) performed by the Israeli National EMS rescue teams. Results: Thirty-three MCIs yielded data on 1156 casualties. Only 57% (506) of the 1123 available and mobilized ambulances were needed to provide 612 evacuations. Rescue teams arrived on scene within <5 minutes and evacuated the last urgent casualty within 15–20 minutes. The majority of non-urgent and urgent patients were transported to medical centers close to the event. Less than half of the urgent casualties were evacuated to more distant trauma centers. Independent variables predicting evacuation to a trauma center were its being the hospital closest to the event (OR 249.2, P < 0.001), evacuation within <10 minutes of the event (OR 9.3, P = 0.003), and having an urgent patient on the ambulance (OR 5.6, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Hospitals nearby terror-induced MCIs play a major role in trauma patient care. Thus, all hospitals should be included in contingency plans for MCIs. Further research into the implications of evacuation of the most severely injured casualties to the nearest hospital while evacuating all other casualties to various hospitals in the area is needed. The challenges posed by terror-induced MCIs require consideration of a paradigm shift in trauma care. PMID:15075645

Decision Processes and Determinants of Hospital Evacuation and Shelter-in-Place During Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

McGinty, Meghan D; Burke, Thomas A; Resnick, Beth; Barnett, Daniel J; Smith, Katherine C; Rutkow, Lainie

Evacuation and shelter-in-place decision making for hospitals is complex, and existing literature contains little information about how these decisions are made in practice. To describe decision-making processes and identify determinants of acute care hospital evacuation and shelter-in-place during Hurricane Sandy. Semistructured interviews were conducted from March 2014 to February 2015 with key informants who had authority and responsibility for evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions for hospitals during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed. Interviewees included hospital executives and state and local public health, emergency management, and emergency medical service officials from Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. Interviewees identified decision processes and determinants of acute care hospital evacuation and shelter-in-place during Hurricane Sandy. We interviewed 42 individuals from 32 organizations. Decisions makers reported relying on their instincts rather than employing guides or tools to make evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions during Hurricane Sandy. Risk to patient health from evacuation, prior experience, cost, and ability to maintain continuity of operations were the most influential factors in decision making. Flooding and utility outages, which were predicted to or actually impacted continuity of operations, were the primary determinants of evacuation. Evacuation and shelter-in-place decision making for hospitals can be improved by ensuring hospital emergency plans address flooding and include explicit thresholds that, if exceeded, would trigger evacuation. Comparative risk assessments that inform decision making would be enhanced by improved collection, analysis, and communication of data on morbidity and mortality associated with evacuation versus sheltering-in-place of hospitals. In addition, administrators and public officials can improve their preparedness to make evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions by practicing the use of decision-making tools during training and exercises.

Modeling Altruistic and Aggressive Driver Behavior in a No-Notice Evacuation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandstetter, Tim; Garrow, Dr. Laurie; Hunter, Dr. Michael

2007-01-01

This study examines the impact of altruistic and aggressive driver behavior on the effectiveness of an evacuation for a section of downtown Atlanta. The study area includes 37 signalized intersections, seven ramps, and 48 parking lots that vary by size, type (lot versus garage), peak volume, and number of ingress and egress points. A detailed microscopic model of the study area was created in VISSIM. Different scenarios examined the impacts of driver behavior on parking lot discharge rates and the loading rates from side streets on primary evacuation routes. A new methodology was created to accurately represent parking lot dischargemore » rates. This study is also unique in that it assumes a "worst case scenario" that occurs with no advance notice during the morning peak period, when vehicles must transition from inbound to outbound routes. Simulation results indicate that while overall network clearance times are similar across scenarios, the distribution of delay on individual routes and across parking lots differ markedly. More equitable solutions (defined as the allocation of delay from parking lots and side streets to main evacuation routes) were observed with altruistic driver behavior.« less

Moving characteristics of single file passengers considering the effect of ship trim and heeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jinlu; Lu, Shouxiang; Lo, Siuming; Ma, Jian; Xie, Qimiao

2018-01-01

Ship listing and motion affects the movement pattern of passengers on board, thus pedestrian traffic and evacuation dynamics would be significantly different from those on level ground. To quantify the influence of ship listing and motion on passenger evacuation, we designed a ship corridor simulator, with which we performed single-file pedestrian movement experiments considering the effect of trim and heeling. Results indicated that density is not the only factor that affects pedestrian speed under ship trim or heeling conditions, for that both individual walking speed and group walking speed would be greatly attenuated due to the influence of the trim angles. However, heeling angles show less impact on speed when compared with trim angles. In addition, the speed correlation coefficient between the adjacent experimental subjects would be higher with larger angles and lower speed. Moreover, both female and male experimental subjects need similar distance headway for walking in different trim or heeling conditions. Furthermore, experimental subjects with lower individual walking speed need longer time headway to keep enough distance headway. This work will provide fundamental guidance to the development of evacuation models and the design of evacuation facilities on board.

The Impact of Wildland and Structure Fire Smoke on Ambient Pollution Levels in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

EPA Science Inventory

An unprecedented wildfire impacted the northern Alberta city of Fort McMurray in May 2016 causing a mandatory evacuation of all residents and resulted in the loss of over 2,400 homes and businesses. An estimated two hectare wildfire was first discovered on May 1 by a fire patrol...

Analysis of Hospital Disaster in South Korea from 1990 to 2008

PubMed Central

Back, Min-Ho

2010-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to systematically review and analyze disasters involving South Korean hospitals from 1990 and to introduce a newly developed implement to manage patients' evacuation. Materials and Methods We searched for studies reporting disaster preparedness and hospital injuries in South Korean hospitals from 1990 to 2008, by using the Korean Studies Information Service System (KISS, copyright Korean Studies Information Co, Ltd, Seoul, Korea) and, simultaneously, hospital injuries which were reported and regarded as a disaster. Then, each study and injury were analyzed. Results Five studies (3 on prevention and structure, 1 on implement of new device, and 1 on basic supplement to current methods) and 8 injuries were found within this period. During the evacuations, the mean gait speed of walking patients was 0.82 m/s and the mean time of evacuation of individual patients was 38.39 seconds. Regarding structure evaluation, almost all hospitals had no balconies in patient rooms; hospital elevators were placed peripherally and were insufficient in number. As a new device, Savingsun (evacuation elevator) was introduced and had some merits as a fast and easy tool, regardless of patient status or the height of hospital. Conclusion In South Korea, preparation for hospital disasters was noted to be insufficient but has involved various departments such as architectural, clinical, and building operations. In addition, Savignsun has been shown to effectively evacuate and save patients in a hospital disaster. PMID:20879068

A Perspective on Long-Term Recovery Following the Fukushima Nuclear Accident - 12075

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, S.Y.

2012-07-01

The tragic events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station began occurring on March 11, 2011, following Japan's unprecedented earthquake and tsunami. The subsequent loss of external power and on-site cooling capacity severely compromised the plant's safety systems, and subsequently, led to core melt in the affected reactors and damage to spent nuclear fuel in the storage pools. Together with hydrogen explosions, this resulted in a substantial release of radioactive material to the environment (mostly Iodine-131 and Cesium- 137), prompting an extensive evacuation effort. The latest release estimate places the event at the highest severity level (Level 7) on themore » International Nuclear Event Scale, the same as the Chernobyl accident of 1986. As the utility owner endeavored to stabilize the damaged facility, environmental contamination continued to propagate and affect every aspect of daily life in the affected region of Japan. Elevated levels of radioactivity (mostly dominated by Cs-137 with the passage of time) were found in soil, drinking water, vegetation, produce, seafood, and other foodstuffs. An estimated 80,000 to 90,000 people were evacuated; more evacuations are being contemplated months after the accident, and a vast amount of land has become contaminated. Early actions were taken to ban the shipment and sale of contaminated food and drinking water, followed by later actions to ban the shipment and sale of contaminated beef, mushrooms, and seafood. As the event continues to evolve toward stabilization, the long-term recovery effort needs to commence - a process that doubtless will involve rather complex decision-making interactions between various stakeholders. Key issues that may be encountered and considered in such a process include (1) socio-political factors, (2) local economic considerations, (3) land use options, (4) remediation approaches, (5) decontamination methods, (6) radioactive waste management, (7) cleanup levels and options, and (8) government policies, among others. This paper offers a perspective on this likely long and arduous journey toward establishing a 'new normal' that will ultimately take shape. Toward this end, it is important to evaluate the 'optimization' process advocated by the international community in achieving long-term recovery from this particularly fateful event in Fukushima. In the process, experience and lessons learned from past events will be fully evaluated and considered. (author)« less

46 CFR 108.545 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... associated liferafts. Inflatable liferafts used in conjunction with the marine evacuation system must be stowed as follows: (1) Each inflatable liferaft used in conjunction with the marine evacuation system... platform. (2) Each inflatable liferaft used in conjunction with the marine evacuation system must be...

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-03-01

The objectives of this study are to test whether the Gravity and Intervening Opportunity Models (IOM) can successfully reproduce aggregate evacuation destination choice observed in evacuation behavior from Hurricane Floyd, compare the performance of ...

A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

PubMed Central

Song, Yulei; Yan, Xuedong

2016-01-01

The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave) and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI) model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities. PMID:27735875

Performance analysis of a solar still coupled with evacuated heat pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramod, B. V. N.; Prudhvi Raj, J.; Krishnan, S. S. Hari; Kotebavi, Vinod

2018-02-01

In developing countries the need for better quality drinking water is increasing steadily. We can overcome this need by using solar energy for desalination purpose. This process includes fabrication and analysis of a pyramid type solar still coupled with evacuated heat pipes. This experiment using evacuated heat pipes are carried in mainly three modes namely 1) Still alone 2) Using heat pipe with evacuated tubes 3)Using evacuated heat pipe. For this work single basin pyramid type solar still with 1m2 basin area is fabricated. Black stones and Black paint are utilised in solar still to increase evaporation rate of water in basin. The heat pipe’s evaporator section is placed inside evacuated tube and the heat pipe’s condenser section is connected directly to the pyramid type solar still’s lower portion. The output of distillate water from still with evacuated heat pipe is found to be 40% more than the still using only evacuated tubes.

The surgical management of chronic subdural hematoma.

PubMed

Ducruet, Andrew F; Grobelny, Bartosz T; Zacharia, Brad E; Hickman, Zachary L; DeRosa, Peter L; Andersen, Kristen N; Anderson, Kristen; Sussman, Eric; Carpenter, Austin; Connolly, E Sander

2012-04-01

Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is an increasingly common neurological disease process. Despite the wide prevalence of cSDH, there remains a lack of consensus regarding numerous aspects of its clinical management. We provide an overview of the epidemiology and pathophysiology of cSDH and discuss several controversial management issues, including the timing of post-operative resumption of anticoagulant medications, the effectiveness of anti-epileptic prophylaxis, protocols for mobilization following evacuation of cSDH, as well as the comparative effectiveness of the various techniques of surgical evacuation. A PubMed search was carried out through October 19, 2010 using the following keywords: "subdural hematoma", "craniotomy", "burr-hole", "management", "anticoagulation", "seizure prophylaxis", "antiplatelet", "mobilization", and "surgical evacuation", alone and in combination. Relevant articles were identified and back-referenced to yield additional papers. A meta-analysis was then performed comparing the efficacy and complications associated with the various methods of cSDH evacuation. There is general agreement that significant coagulopathy should be reversed expeditiously in patients presenting with cSDH. Although protocols for gradual resumption of anti-coagulation for prophylaxis of venous thrombosis may be derived from guidelines for other neurosurgical procedures, further prospective study is necessary to determine the optimal time to restart full-dose anti-coagulation in the setting of recently drained cSDH. There is also conflicting evidence to support seizure prophylaxis in patients with cSDH, although the existing literature supports prophylaxis in patients who are at a higher risk for seizures. The published data regarding surgical technique for cSDH supports primary twist drill craniostomy (TDC) drainage at the bedside for patients who are high-risk surgical candidates with non-septated cSDH and craniotomy as a first-line evacuation technique for cSDH with significant membranes. Larger prospective studies addressing these aspects of cSDH management are necessary to establish definitive recommendations.

Legal Preparedness for Hurricane Sandy: Authority to Order Hospital Evacuation or Shelter-in-Place in the Mid-Atlantic Region.

PubMed

McGinty, Meghan D; Burke, Thomas A; Resnick, Beth A; Smith, Katherine C; Barnett, Daniel J; Rutkow, Lainie

2016-01-01

Hospitals were once thought to be places of refuge during catastrophic hurricanes, but recent disasters such as Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy have demonstrated that some hospitals are unable to ensure the safety of patients and staff and the continuity of medical care at key times. The government has a duty to safeguard public health and a responsibility to ensure that appropriate protective action is taken when disasters threaten or impair the ability of hospitals to sustain essential services. The law can enable the government to fulfill this duty by providing necessary authority to order preventive or reactive responses--such as ordering evacuation of or sheltering-in-place in hospitals--when safety is imperiled. We systematically identified and analyzed state emergency preparedness laws that could have affected evacuation of and sheltering-in-place in hospitals in order to characterize the public health legal preparedness of 4 states (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York) in the mid-Atlantic region during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. At that time, none of these 4 states had enacted statutes or regulations explicitly granting the government the authority to order hospitals to shelter-in-place. Whereas all 4 states had enacted laws explicitly enabling the government to order evacuation, the nature of this authority and the individuals empowered to execute it varied. We present empirical analyses intended to enhance public health legal preparedness and ensure these states and others are better able to respond to future natural disasters, which are predicted to be more severe and frequent as a result of climate change, as well as other hazards. States can further improve their readiness for catastrophic disasters by ensuring explicit statutory authority to order evacuation and to order sheltering-in-place, particularly of hospitals, where it does not currently exist.

Tsunami Evacuation Exercises: the Case of Heraklion, Crete Isl., Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, I.; Charalampakis, M.; Bocchini, G. M.; Novikova, T.; Papadopoulos, G. A.

2016-12-01

Effective tsunami evacuation requires appropriate awareness as regards good shelters selection. Field exercises may improve public awareness. A field exercise was organized in Heraklion, Crete Isl., in 2016. The area is part of the Hellenic Arc which is the most active structure in the Mediterranean. Large earthquakes triggered tsunamis that hit Heraklion in the past, such in AD 1303. After selecting various fault models, simulation of the 1303 tsunami showed important inundation zone in Heraklion. For the exercise needs a team of 30 volunteers was divided in 3 groups of 10 people each. Everyone was equipped with a mobile phone and a GPS device. The 3 groups were gathered in 3 coastal spots Heraklion situated 400 m apart each other. The scenario was that immediately after receiving in their mobile a tsunami warning message they will set on their personal GPS device and start evacuating inland on the best way they believed to do so. In each group, only 5 out of 10 volunteers were notified beforehand that the Eleftherias Square, located inland at distance satisfying evacuation needs in case of repeat of the 1303 tsunami, would be a good shelter to go. Using the Road Graph Plugin of QGIS, we calculated the shortest path distances which found equal to 800, 700 and 680 m. Adopting average velocity of 3 km/h we found that these distances can be covered within 18, 16 and 15 min, respectively. The routes towards the settlement spots as well as the times needed to arrive there by each one of the 30 volunteers were recorded by their personal GPS devices. The processing of the GPS tracks and their comparison with the theoretical routes and times showed good evacuation performance which is encouraging for the next phases of the Heraklion tsunami hazard mitigation program. This is contribution to the EU-FP7 projects ZIP (Zooming In between Plates, grant no: 604713, 2013) and ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant no: 603839, 2013.

Modeling and assessment of civil aircraft evacuation based on finer-grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Zhi-Ming; Lv, Wei; Jiang, Li-Xue; Xu, Qing-Feng; Song, Wei-Guo

2016-04-01

Studying civil aircraft emergency evacuation process by using computer model is an effective way. In this study, the evacuation of Airbus A380 is simulated using a Finer-Grid Civil Aircraft Evacuation (FGCAE) model. In this model, the effect of seat area and others on escape process and pedestrian's "hesitation" before leaving exits are considered, and an optimized rule of exit choice is defined. Simulations reproduce typical characteristics of aircraft evacuation, such as the movement synchronization between adjacent pedestrians, route choice and so on, and indicate that evacuation efficiency will be determined by pedestrian's "preference" and "hesitation". Based on the model, an assessment procedure of aircraft evacuation safety is presented. The assessment and comparison with the actual evacuation test demonstrate that the available exit setting of "one exit from each exit pair" used by practical demonstration test is not the worst scenario. The half exits of one end of the cabin are all unavailable is the worst one, that should be paid more attention to, and even be adopted in the certification test. The model and method presented in this study could be useful for assessing, validating and improving the evacuation performance of aircraft.

Warnings and Human Response in the Oroville Dam Crisis, February 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, J. H.; Mileti, D. S.; Needham, J. T.

2017-12-01

On February 7, 2017, erosion was detected in the primary spillway for Oroville Dam in northern California, causing an elevated concern for the safety of downstream communities. The situation seemed stable until heavy rains on February 11 resulted in the flow of water over the emergency spillway. On February 12, erosion below the emergency spillway was observed. At 4:21 PM on February 12, the Butte County Sheriff issued an evacuation order for "low levels of Oroville and downstream areas". Counties downstream followed with evacuation warnings. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary results of research, conducted for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, on the Oroville event. This investigation is part of a research program designed to collect and analyze data on: 1) The timing of the decisions to order public evacuation warnings including the flow of information between engineers and geologist monitoring the hazard and local officials. 2) The method and timing of the dissemination of those warnings including the diffusion or warning by various communication channels. 3) The interpretation and response of the public to those warnings, including the timing of protective action decisions. The findings from these studies will be incorporated into risk assessment models used in assessing the impacts of dam and levee failures on a national basis.

A controlled trial of colostomy management by natural evacuation, irrigation and foam enema.

PubMed

Doran, J; Hardcastle, J D

1981-10-01

Twenty patients entered a prospective controlled trial of colostomy management by three techniques--natural evacuation, colostomy irrigation and foam enema. Every patient spent 2 months using each technique. The mean number of colostomy actions weekly was 17 during natural evacuation, 6 during irrigation and 10 with the enema. There was no significant difference in the time taken to manage the colostomy by each technique. Eighteen patients considered that both irrigation and the foam enema improved the quality of their life, and opted to continue with irrigation on completion of the study. There were no major complications during the trial but leakage of foam and an increase in flatus were problems with the foam enema. It is concluded that patients should be made aware of the alternative methods available for colostomy management and be encouraged to use the method of their choice.

48 CFR 752.228-70 - Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Medical Evacuation... Clauses 752.228-70 Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services. As prescribed in 728.307-70, for use in all contracts requiring performance overseas: Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services (JUL 2007) (a) Contractor...

48 CFR 752.228-70 - Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Medical Evacuation... Clauses 752.228-70 Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services. As prescribed in 728.307-70, for use in all contracts requiring performance overseas: Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services (JUL 2007) (a) Contractor...

48 CFR 752.228-70 - Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Medical Evacuation... Clauses 752.228-70 Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services. As prescribed in 728.307-70, for use in all contracts requiring performance overseas: Medical Evacuation (MEDEVAC) Services (JUL 2007) (a) Contractor...

46 CFR 108.545 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 108.545... DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Lifesaving Equipment § 108.545 Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. (a) Arrangements. Each marine evacuation system must have the following arrangements: (1) Each...

46 CFR 116.520 - Emergency evacuation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Emergency evacuation plan. 116.520 Section 116.520... ARRANGEMENT Escape and Embarkation Station Requirements § 116.520 Emergency evacuation plan. The owner or managing operator shall prepare an evacuation plan that must: (a) Identify possible casualties involving...

46 CFR 116.520 - Emergency evacuation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Emergency evacuation plan. 116.520 Section 116.520... ARRANGEMENT Escape and Embarkation Station Requirements § 116.520 Emergency evacuation plan. The owner or managing operator shall prepare an evacuation plan that must: (a) Identify possible casualties involving...

46 CFR 116.520 - Emergency evacuation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Emergency evacuation plan. 116.520 Section 116.520... ARRANGEMENT Escape and Embarkation Station Requirements § 116.520 Emergency evacuation plan. The owner or managing operator shall prepare an evacuation plan that must: (a) Identify possible casualties involving...

46 CFR 116.520 - Emergency evacuation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Emergency evacuation plan. 116.520 Section 116.520... ARRANGEMENT Escape and Embarkation Station Requirements § 116.520 Emergency evacuation plan. The owner or managing operator shall prepare an evacuation plan that must: (a) Identify possible casualties involving...

Spatial memory enhances the evacuation efficiency of virtual pedestrians under poor visibility condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yi; Lee, Eric Wai Ming; Shi, Meng; Kwok Kit Yuen, Richard

2018-03-01

Spatial memory is a critical navigation support tool for disoriented evacuees during evacuation under adverse environmental conditions such as dark or smoky conditions. Owing to the complexity of memory, it is challenging to understand the effect of spatial memory on pedestrian evacuation quantitatively. In this study, we propose a simple method to quantitatively represent the evacueeʼs spatial memory about the emergency exit, model the evacuation of pedestrians under the guidance of the spatial memory, and investigate the effect of the evacueeʼs spatial memory on the evacuation from theoretical and physical perspectives. The result shows that (i) a good memory can significantly assist the evacuation of pedestrians under poor visibility conditions, and the evacuation can always succeed when the degree of the memory exceeds a threshold (\\varphi > 0.5); (ii) the effect of memory is superior to that of “follow-the-crowd” under the same environmental conditions; (iii) in the case of multiple exits, the difference in the degree of the memory between evacuees has a significant effect (the greater the difference, the faster the evacuation) for the evacuation under poor visibility conditions. Our study provides a new quantitative insight into the effect of spatial memory on crowd evacuation under poor visibility conditions. Project supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Grant No. 11203615).

Discrete element method for emergency flow of pedestrian in S-type corridor.

PubMed

Song, Gyeongwon; Park, Junyoung

2014-10-01

Pedestrian flow in curved corridor should be modeled before design because this type of corridor can be most dangerous part during emergency evacuation. In this study, this flow is analyzed by Discrete Element Method with psychological effects. As the turning slope of corridor increases, the evacuation time is linearly increases. However, in the view of crashed death accident, the case with 90 degree turning slope can be dangerous because there are 3 dangerous points. To solve this matter, the pedestrian gathering together in curved part should be dispersed.

Which groups of patients benefit from helicopter evacuation?

PubMed

Hotvedt, R; Kristiansen, I S; Førde, O H; Thoner, J; Almdahl, S M; Bjørsvik, G; Berge, L; Magnus, A C; Mamen, K; Sparr, T; Ytre-Arne, K

1996-05-18

The evacuation of emergency cases by air, usually by helicopter, is controversial because of the cost of the programme, the possibility of an accident (especially in an urban area), and unproven benefit. But such evacuations cannot be studied by a random intervention (eg, air versus ground ambulance). We used an expert-panel approach to estimate the health outcome for patients transferred by emergency helicopter compared with the potential outcome if they had gone by surface ambulance. The helicopter programme is based at the University Hospital of Tromsø in northern Norway. 370 case-reports of helicopter evacuation from rural areas were screened by anaesthetists for routine and case-specific data. Two expert panels assessed the cases for potential additional health benefit arising from the fact of helicopter evacuation. The panels used a modified Delphi technique to reach consensus in life-years gained. One panel met for cases aged under 15 and pregnant women, the other for older cases. 240 of the 370 cases were male (65%); the age range for both sexes was 0-86 years. The most common diagnosis for the 55 cases aged under 15 was infection (49%); in older patients, cardiovascular disease dominated (50%). Trauma accounted for just under a fifth of cases in both groups. On average, the patients arrived 69 min (range 0-615) earlier in hospital than if they had gone by ground transport. For 283 cases, the initial screening by the anaesthetists indicated no additional benefit compared with that obtainable by ground-ambulance transport. The main reason was that no treatment was given during the flight or early on in hospital that could not have been given otherwise. 90 cases entered the expert panel system. Of these 90, 49 cases were judged to have received no additional benefit. This left 41 (11% of the total of 370 evacuated) who were judged to have benefited, gaining 290.6 life-years. 96% of the total number of life-years gained was achieved in nine patients, six of whom were aged below 7 (four were aged 0-7 months). The life-year-gain per adult patient with cardiovascular disease was 0.54. We conclude that an emergency helicopter service can provide considerable health benefits for selected patients, at least in this rural setting. Given the costs and risks of such a service, the benefits for most patients are small.

Population evacuations in industrial accidents: a review of the literature about four major events.

PubMed

Soffer, Yechiel; Schwartz, Dagan; Goldberg, Avishay; Henenfeld, Maxim; Bar-Dayan, Yaron

2008-01-01

This article reviews the literature describing four chemical and nuclear accidents and the lessons learned from each regarding the evacuation of civilian populations. Evacuation may save lives however, if poorly orchestrated, it may cause serious problems. For example, an inaccurate assessment of danger may lead to the evacuation of the same population twice, as the area requiring evacuation becomes larger than originally expected. Evacuation programs should focus on the vulnerable components of the populations, such as the elderly, children, and the disabled, and also should include plans for the care of pets and other animals. Training programs for civilians living near industrial centers and other high-risk areas should be considered. Finally, pre-event planning and preparation can improve the evacuation process and prevent panic behavior, and thus result in fewer casualties.

Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events during Long-Duration Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Gray, Gary; Locke, James

2014-01-01

Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events During Long-Duration Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Locke, James

2014-01-01

Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location.

PubMed

Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika

2010-01-01

This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

30 CFR 57.4361 - Underground evacuation drills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Underground evacuation drills. 57.4361 Section... Prevention and Control Firefighting Procedures/alarms/drills § 57.4361 Underground evacuation drills. (a) At least once every six months, mine evacuation drills shall be held to assess the ability of all persons...

30 CFR 57.4361 - Underground evacuation drills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Underground evacuation drills. 57.4361 Section... Prevention and Control Firefighting Procedures/alarms/drills § 57.4361 Underground evacuation drills. (a) At least once every six months, mine evacuation drills shall be held to assess the ability of all persons...

30 CFR 57.4361 - Underground evacuation drills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Underground evacuation drills. 57.4361 Section... Prevention and Control Firefighting Procedures/alarms/drills § 57.4361 Underground evacuation drills. (a) At least once every six months, mine evacuation drills shall be held to assess the ability of all persons...

30 CFR 57.4361 - Underground evacuation drills.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Underground evacuation drills. 57.4361 Section... Prevention and Control Firefighting Procedures/alarms/drills § 57.4361 Underground evacuation drills. (a) At least once every six months, mine evacuation drills shall be held to assess the ability of all persons...

46 CFR 133.145 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... liferafts. Inflatable liferafts used in conjunction with the marine evacuation system must be stowed as follows: (1) Each inflatable liferaft used in conjunction with the marine evacuation system must be close.... (2) Each inflatable liferaft used in conjunction with the marine evacuation system must be capable of...

75 FR 49507 - Recovery Policy, RP9525.4, Emergency Medical Care and Medical Evacuations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-13

...] Recovery Policy, RP9525.4, Emergency Medical Care and Medical Evacuations AGENCY: Federal Emergency... Management Agency (FEMA) is accepting comments on RP9525.4, Emergency Medical Care and Medical Evacuations... emergency medical care and medical evacuation expenses that are eligible for reimbursement under the...

Real-time ultrasound-guided endoscopic surgery for putaminal hemorrhage.

PubMed

Sadahiro, Hirokazu; Nomura, Sadahiro; Goto, Hisaharu; Sugimoto, Kazutaka; Inamura, Akinori; Fujiyama, Yuichi; Yamane, Akiko; Oku, Takayuki; Shinoyama, Mizuya; Suzuki, Michiyasu

2015-11-01

Endoscopic surgery plays a significant role in the treatment of intracerebral hemorrhage. However, the residual hematoma cannot be measured intraoperatively from the endoscopic view, and it is difficult to determine the precise location of the endoscope within the hematoma cavity. The authors attempted to develop real-time ultrasound-guided endoscopic surgery using a bur-hole-type probe. From November 2012 to March 2014, patients with hypertensive putaminal hemorrhage who underwent endoscopic hematoma removal were enrolled in this study. Real-time ultrasound guidance was performed with a bur-hole-type probe that was advanced via a second bur hole, which was placed in the temporal region. Ultrasound was used to guide insertion of the endoscope sheath as well as to provide information regarding the location of the hematoma during surgical evacuation. Finally, the cavity was irrigated with artificial cerebrospinal fluid and was observed as a low-echoic space, which facilitated detection of residual hematoma. Ten patients with putaminal hemorrhage>30 cm3 were included in this study. Their mean age (±SD) was 60.9±8.6 years, and the mean preoperative hematoma volume was 65.2±37.1 cm3. The mean percentage of hematoma that was evacuated was 96%±3%. None of the patients exhibited rebleeding after surgery. This navigation method was effective in demonstrating both the real-time location of the endoscope and real-time viewing of the residual hematoma. Use of ultrasound guidance minimized the occurrence of brain injury due to hematoma evacuation.

An optimization design for evacuation planning based on fuzzy credibility theory and genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, D.; Zhang, W. Y.

2017-08-01

Evacuation planning is an important activity in disaster management. It has to be planned in advance due to the unpredictable occurrence of disasters. It is necessary that the evacuation plans are as close as possible to the real evacuation work. However, the evacuation plan is extremely challenging because of the inherent uncertainty of the required information. There is a kind of vehicle routing problem based on the public traffic evacuation. In this paper, the demand for each evacuation set point is a fuzzy number, and each routing selection of the point is based on the fuzzy credibility preference index. This paper proposes an approximate optimal solution for this problem by the genetic algorithm based on the fuzzy reliability theory. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an optimization model, and the experiment result shows that the algorithm is effective.

21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

21 CFR 888.4220 - Cement monomer vapor evacuator.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Cement monomer vapor evacuator. 888.4220 Section... (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ORTHOPEDIC DEVICES Surgical Devices § 888.4220 Cement monomer vapor evacuator. (a) Identification. A cement monomer vapor evacuator is a device intended for use during surgery to contain or remove...

Research on Evacuation Based on Social Force Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Deng, Z.; Li, W.; Lin, J.

2017-09-01

Crowded centers always cause personnel casualties in evacuation operations. Stampede events often occur by hit, squeeze and crush due to panic. It is of vital important to alleviate such situation. With the deepening of personnel evacuation research, more and more researchers are committed to study individual behaviors and self-organization phenomenon in evacuation process. The study mainly includes: 1, enrich the social force model from different facets such as visual, psychological, external force to descript more realistic evacuation; 2, research on causes and effects of self - organization phenomenon. In this paper, we focus on disorder motion that occurs in the crowded indoor publics, especially the narrow channel and safety exits and other special arteries. We put forward the improved social force model to depict pedestrians' behaviors, an orderly speed-stratification evacuation method to solve disorder problem, and shape-changed export to alleviate congestion. The result of this work shows an improvement of evacuation efficiency by 19.5 %. Guiding pedestrians' direction to slow down the influence of social forces has a guidance function in improving the efficiency of indoor emergency evacuation.

Optimal nonimaging integrated evacuated solar collector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrison, John D.; Duff, W. S.; O'Gallagher, Joseph J.; Winston, Roland

1993-11-01

A non imaging integrated evacuated solar collector for solar thermal energy collection is discussed which has the lower portion of the tubular glass vacuum enveloped shaped and inside surface mirrored to optimally concentrate sunlight onto an absorber tube in the vacuum. This design uses vacuum to eliminate heat loss from the absorber surface by conduction and convection of air, soda lime glass for the vacuum envelope material to lower cost, optimal non imaging concentration integrated with the glass vacuum envelope to lower cost and improve solar energy collection, and a selective absorber for the absorbing surface which has high absorptance and low emittance to lower heat loss by radiation and improve energy collection efficiency. This leads to a very low heat loss collector with high optical collection efficiency, which can operate at temperatures up to the order of 250 degree(s)C with good efficiency while being lower in cost than current evacuated solar collectors. Cost estimates are presented which indicate a cost for this solar collector system which can be competitive with the cost of fossil fuel heat energy sources when the collector system is produced in sufficient volume. Non imaging concentration, which reduces cost while improving performance, and which allows efficient solar energy collection without tracking the sun, is a key element in this solar collector design.

Societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaughey, Jamie W.; Mundzir, Ibnu; Patt, Anthony; Rosemary, Rizanna; Safrina, Lely; Mahdi, Saiful; Daly, Patrick

2017-04-01

Uncertainties in forecasting extreme events force an unavoidable tradeoff between false alarms and misses. The appropriate balance depends on the level of societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuations, but there has been little empirical research on this. Intuitively it may seem that an unnecessary evacuation would make people less likely to evacuate again in the future, but our study finds no support for this intuition. Using new quantitative (n=800) and qualitative evidence, we examine individual- and household-level evacuation decisions in response to the strong 11-Apr-2012 earthquake in Aceh, Indonesia. This earthquake did not produce a tsunami, but the population had previously experienced the devastating 2004 tsunami. In our sample, the vast majority of people (86%) evacuated in the 2012 earthquake, and nearly all (94%) say they would evacuate again if a similar earthquake happened in the future. Self-reported level of fear at the moment of the 2012 earthquake explains more of the variance in evacuation decisions and intentions than does a combination of perceived tsunami risk and perceived efficacy of evacuation modeled on protection motivation theory. These findings suggest that the appropriate balance between false alarms and misses may be highly context-specific. Investigating this in each context would make an important contribution to the effectiveness of early-warning systems.

A Study of Flood Evacuation Center Using GIS and Remote Sensing Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustaffa, A. A.; Rosli, M. F.; Abustan, M. S.; Adib, R.; Rosli, M. I.; Masiri, K.; Saifullizan, B.

2016-07-01

This research demonstrated the use of Remote Sensing technique and GIS to determine the suitability of an evacuation center. This study was conducted in Batu Pahat areas that always hit by a series of flood. The data of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was obtained by ASTER database that has been used to delineate extract contour line and elevation. Landsat 8 image was used for classification purposes such as land use map. Remote Sensing incorporate with GIS techniques was used to determined the suitability location of the evacuation center from contour map of flood affected areas in Batu Pahat. GIS will calculate the elevation of the area and information about the country of the area, the road access and percentage of the affected area. The flood affected area map may provide the suitability of the flood evacuation center during the several levels of flood. The suitability of evacuation centers can be determined based on several criteria and the existing data of the evacuation center will be analysed. From the analysis among 16 evacuation center listed, there are only 8 evacuation center suitable for the usage during emergency situation. The suitability analysis was based on the location and the road access of the evacuation center toward the flood affected area. There are 10 new locations with suitable criteria of evacuation center proposed on the study area to facilitate the process of rescue and evacuating flood victims to much safer and suitable locations. The results of this study will help in decision making processes and indirectly will help organization such as fire-fighter and the Department of Social Welfare in their work. Thus, this study can contribute more towards the society.

Initial management of hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: a systematic investigation.

PubMed

Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

2013-06-01

Hurricanes remain a major threat to hospitals throughout the world. The authors attempted to identify the planning areas that impact hospital management of evacuations and the challenges faced when sheltering-in-place. This observational, retrospective cohort study examined acute care institutions from one hospital system impacted by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Investigators used a standardized survey instrument and interview process, previously used in the hospital evacuation context, to examine hospitals' initial internal situational awareness and subsequent decision making that resulted in evacuation due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included representatives from senior leadership and clinical and nonclinical staff that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). The main measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions contained in the survey. Seven of ten eligible hospitals participated in the study. All facilities evacuated the sickest patients first. The most significant factors prompting evacuation were the issuing of mandatory evacuation orders, storm dynamics (category, projected path, storm surge), and loss of regional communications. Hospitals that sheltered-in-place experienced staff shortages, interruptions to electrical power, and loss of water supplies. Three fully-evacuated institutions experienced understaffing of 40%-60%, and four hospitals sustained depressed staffing levels for over four weeks. Five hospitals lost electricity for a mean of 4.8 days (range .5-11 days). All facilities continued to receive patients to their Emergency Departments (EDs) while conducting their own evacuation. Hospital EDs should plan for continuous patient arrival during evacuation. Emergency Operation Plans (EOPs) that anticipate challenges associated with evacuation will help to maximize initial decision making and management during a crisis situation. Hospitals that shelter-in-place face critical shortages and must provide independent patient care for prolonged periods.

Should We Stay Or Should We Go Now? Hazard Warnings, Risk Perception, and Evacuation Decisions at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala During the 2010 Eruption.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lechner, H. N.; Rouleau, M.

2017-12-01

Pacaya volcano, in Guatemala, presents considerable risk to nearby communities and in May 2010, the volcano experienced its largest eruption in more than a decade. The eruption damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes, injured scores of people with one fatality, and prompted the evacuation of approximately 2000 people from several communities. During this eruption crisis, people living within at-risk communities were presented with the choice to evacuate or remain in the hazard zone. Many chose not to leave. Using quantitative methodologies, this research investigates evacuation decisions through causal relationships between hazard warnings, evacuation orders, risk perception, evacuation intention and behavior, and attempts to understand why some people chose to stay in harm's-way. In October 2016, we conducted a door-to-door survey administered to 172 households in eight communities within 5 km of the active vent. Participants were asked to rank factors that influenced their decision to evacuate or not, their level of trust in emergency management agencies, and the intention to evacuate during a future crisis. Initial analysis suggests that many people have confidence in emergency management agencies and information from volcano scientists; however, during the 2010 eruption, warning messages and evacuation orders were based on previous eruption patterns and tephra distribution and therefore disseminated differentially to at-risk communities. This likely delayed evacuation decisions by households in the communities that were most affected by the eruption. The data also suggest that while many households perceive evacuation as the most effective protective action, the perceived risk to one's home and property may play a more important role in the decision making process. We will discuss these results as well as communication strategies between agencies and communities, and how to better facilitate more effective and successful evacuations during future eruption crises at Pacaya volcano.

Enemas, suppositories and rectal stimulation are not effective in accelerating enteral feeding or meconium evacuation in low-birthweight infants: a systematic review.

PubMed

Kamphorst, Kim; Sietsma, Ydelette; Brouwer, Annemieke J; Rood, Paul J T; van den Hoogen, Agnes

2016-11-01

Early full enteral feeding in preterm infants decreases morbidity and mortality. Our systematic review covered the effectiveness of rectal stimulation, suppositories and enemas on stooling patterns and feeding tolerance in low-birthweight infants born at up to 32 weeks. It comprised seven studies published between 2007 and 2014 and covered 495 infants. Suppositories were ineffective in shortening the time to reach full enteral feeding, and the evidence on enemas was contradictory. Enemas and rectal stimulation did not shorten the time until complete meconium evacuation was reached. Further research into safe, effective interventions to accelerate meconium excretion is needed. ©2016 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A methodology for evacuation design for urban areas: theoretical aspects and experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, F.; Vitetta, A.

2009-04-01

This paper proposes an unifying approach for the simulation and design of a transportation system under conditions of incoming safety and/or security. Safety and security are concerned with threats generated by very different factors and which, in turn, generate emergency conditions, such as the 9/11, Madrid and London attacks, the Asian tsunami, and the Katrina hurricane; just considering the last five years. In transportation systems, when exogenous events happen and there is a sufficient interval time between the instant when the event happens and the instant when the event has effect on the population, it is possible to reduce the negative effects with the population evacuation. For this event in every case it is possible to prepare with short and long term the evacuation. For other event it is possible also to plan the real time evacuation inside the general risk methodology. The development of models for emergency conditions in transportation systems has not received much attention in the literature. The main findings in this area are limited to only a few public research centres and private companies. In general, there is no systematic analysis of the risk theory applied in the transportation system. Very often, in practice, the vulnerability and exposure in the transportation system are considered as similar variables, or in other worse cases the exposure variables are treated as vulnerability variables. Models and algorithms specified and calibrated in ordinary conditions cannot be directly applied in emergency conditions under the usual hypothesis considered. This paper is developed with the following main objectives: (a) to formalize the risk problem with clear diversification (for the consequences) in the definition of the vulnerability and exposure in a transportation system; thus the book offers improvements over consolidated quantitative risk analysis models, especially transportation risk analysis models (risk assessment); (b) to formalize a system of models for evacuation simulation; (c) to calibrate and validate system of model for evacuation simulation from a real experimentation. In relation to the proposed objectives in this paper: (a) a general framework about risk analysis is reported in the first part, with specific methods and models to analyze urban transportation system performances in emergency conditions when exogenous phenomena occur and for the specification of the risk function; (b) a formulation of the general evacuation problem in the standard simulation context of "what if" approach is specified in the second part with reference to the model considered for the simulation of transportation system in ordinary condition; (c) a set of models specified in the second part are calibrated and validated from a real experimentation in the third part. The experimentation was developed in the central business district of an Italian village and about 1000 inhabitants were evacuated, in order to construct a complete data-base. Our experiment required that socioeconomic information (population, number employed, public buildings, schools, etc.) and ‎transport supply characteristics (infrastructures, etc.) be measured before and during experimentation. The real data of evacuation were recorded with 30 video cameras for laboratory analysis. The results are divided into six strictly connected tasks: Demand models; Supply and supply-demand interaction models for users; Simulation of refuge areas for users; Design of path choice models for emergency vehicles; Pedestrian outflow models in a building; Planning process and guidelines.

Gas centrifuge purge method

DOEpatents

Theurich, Gordon R.

1976-01-01

1. In a method of separating isotopes in a high speed gas centrifuge wherein a vertically oriented cylindrical rotor bowl is adapted to rotate about its axis within an evacuated chamber, and wherein an annular molecular pump having an intake end and a discharge end encircles the uppermost portion of said rotor bowl, said molecular pump being attached along its periphery in a leak-tight manner to said evacuated chamber, and wherein end cap closure means are affixed to the upper end of said rotor bowl, and a process gas withdrawal and insertion system enters said bowl through said end cap closure means, said evacuated chamber, molecular pump and end cap defining an upper zone at the discharge end of said molecular pump, said evacuated chamber, molecular pump and rotor bowl defining a lower annular zone at the intake end of said molecular pump, a method for removing gases from said upper and lower zones during centrifuge operation with a minimum loss of process gas from said rotor bowl, comprising, in combination: continuously measuring the pressure in said upper zone, pumping gas from said lower zone from the time the pressure in said upper zone equals a first preselected value until the pressure in said upper zone is equal to a second preselected value, said first preselected value being greater than said second preselected value, and continuously pumping gas from said upper zone from the time the pressure in said upper zone equals a third preselected value until the pressure in said upper zone is equal to a fourth preselected value, said third preselected value being greater than said first, second and fourth preselected values.

Child protection and adult depression: evaluating the long-term consequences of evacuating children to foster care during World War II.

PubMed

Santavirta, Nina; Santavirta, Torsten

2014-03-01

This paper combined data collected from war time government records with survey data including background characteristics, such as factors that affected eligibility, to examine the adult depression outcomes of individuals who were evacuated from Finland to temporary foster care in Sweden during World War II. Using war time government records and survey data for a random sample of 723 exposed individuals and 1321 matched unexposed individuals, the authors conducted least squares adjusted means comparison to examine the association between evacuation and adult depression (Beck Depression Inventory). The random sample was representative for the whole population of evacuees who returned to their biological families after World War II. The authors found no statistically significant difference in depressive symptoms during late adulthood between the two groups; for example, the exposed group had a 0.41 percentage points lower average Beck Depression Inventory score than the unexposed group (p = 0.907). This study provides no support for family disruption during early childhood because of the onset of sudden shocks elevating depressive symptoms during late adulthood. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2-Hazard Modeling.

PubMed

Blanton, Brian; Dresback, Kendra; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randy; Vergara, Humberto; Hong, Yang; Leonardo, Nicholas; Davidson, Rachel; Nozick, Linda; Wachtendorf, Tricia

2018-04-25

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Experimental study on small group behavior and crowd dynamics in a tall office building evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yaping; Li, Lihua; Zhang, Hui; Chen, Tao

2017-05-01

It is well known that a large percentage of occupants in a building are evacuated together with their friends, families, and officemates, especially in China. Small group behaviors are therefore critical for crowd movement. This paper aims to study the crowd dynamic considering different social relations and the impacts of small groups on crowd dynamics in emergency evacuation. Three experiments are conducted in an 11-storey office building. In the first two experiments, all participants are classmates and know each other well. They are evacuated as individuals or pairs. In the third experiment, social relations among the participants are complex. Participants consist of 8 families, 6 lovers and several individuals. Space-time features, speed characteristics and density-speed relations for each experiment are analyzed and compared. Results conclude that small group behaviors can make positive impacts on crowd dynamics when evacuees know each other and are cooperative. This conclusion is also testified by four verified experiments. In the third experiment, speeds of evacuees are lowest. Small groups form automatically with the presence of intimate social relations. Small groups in this experiment slow down the average speed of the crowd and make disturbance on the crowd flow. Small groups in this case make negative impacts on the movement of the crowd. It is because that evacuees do not know each other and they are competitive to each other. Characteristics of different types of small groups are also investigated. Experimental data can provide foundational parameters for evacuation model development and are helpful for building designers.

Medical management of the consequences of the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident.

PubMed

Hachiya, Misao; Tominaga, Takako; Tatsuzaki, Hideo; Akashi, Makoto

2014-02-01

A huge earthquake struck the northeast coast of the main island of Japan on March 11, 2011, triggering a tsunami with 14-15 meter-high waves hitting the area. The earthquake was followed by numerous sustained aftershocks. The earthquake affected the nuclear power plant (NPP) in Fukushima prefecture, resulting in large amounts of radioactive materials being released into the environment. The major nuclides released on land were ¹³¹I, ¹³⁴Cs, and ¹³⁷Cs. Therefore, almost 170,000 people had to be evacuated or stay indoors. Besides the NPP and the telecommunications system, the earthquake also affected infrastructures such as the supplies of water and electricity as well as the radiation monitoring system. The local hospital system was dysfunctional; hospitals designated as radiation-emergency facilities were not able to function because of damage from the earthquake and tsunami, and some of them were located within a 20 km radius of the NPP, the designated evacuation zone. Local fire department personnel were also asked to evacuate. Furthermore, the affected hospitals had not established their evacuation plans at that time. We have learned from this "combined disaster" that the potential for damage to lifelines as well as the monitoring systems for radiation in case of an earthquake requires our intense focus and vigilance, and that hospitals need comprehensive plans for evacuation, including patients requiring life support equipment during and after a nuclear disaster. There is an urgent need for a "combined disaster" strategy, and this should be emphasized in current disaster planning and response. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Gene expression analyses of the small intestine of pigs in the ex-evacuation zone of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

PubMed

Morimoto, Motoko; Kato, Ayaka; Kobayashi, Jin; Okuda, Kei; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Kino, Yasushi; Abe, Yasuyuki; Sekine, Tsutomu; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-11-15

After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, radioactive contaminants were released over a widespread area. Monitoring the biological effects of radiation exposure in animals in the ex-evacuation zone should be continued to understand the health effects of radiation exposure in humans. The present study aimed to clarify the effects of radiation by investigating whether there is any alteration in the morphology and gene expressions of immune molecules in the intestine of pigs and inobuta (wild boar and domestic pig hybrid) in the ex-evacuation zone in 2012. Gene expression analysis was performed in small intestine samples from pigs, which were collected from January to February 2012, in the ex-evacuation zone. Pigs lived freely in this zone, and their small intestine was considered to be affected by the dietary intake of radioactive contaminants. Several genes were selected by microarray analysis for further investigation using real-time polymerase chain reaction. IFN-γ, which is an important inflammatory cytokine, and TLR3, which is a pattern recognize receptor for innate immune system genes, were highly elevated in these pigs. The expressions of the genes of these proteins were associated with the radiation level in the muscles. We also examined the alteration of gene expressions in wild boars 5 years after the disaster. The expression of IFN-γ and TLR3 remained high, and that of Cyclin G1, which is important in the cell cycle, was elevated. We demonstrated that some changes in gene expression occurred in the small intestine of animals in the ex-evacuation zone after radiation. It is difficult to conclude that these alterations are caused by only artificial radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. However, the animals in the ex-evacuation zone might have experienced some changes owing to radioactive materials, including contaminated soil, small animals, and insects. We need to continue monitoring the effects of long-term radiation exposure in living things.

International Organization for Migration: experience on the need for medical evacuation of refugees during the Kosovo crisis in 1999.

PubMed

Szilard, Istvan; Cserti, Arpad; Hoxha, Ruhija; Gorbacheva, Olga; O'Rourke, Thomas

2002-04-01

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) developed and implemented a three-month project entitled Priority Medical Screening of Kosovar Refugees in Macedonia, within the Humanitarian Evacuation Program (HEP) for Kosovar refugees from FR Yugoslavia, which was adopted in May 1999. The project was based on an agreement with the office of United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and comprised the entry of registration data of refugees with medical condition (Priority Medical Database), and classification (Priority Medical Screening) and medical evacuation of refugees (Priority Medical Evacuation) in Macedonia. To realize the Priority Medical Screening project plan, IOM developed and set up a Medical Database linked to IOM/UNHCR HEP database, recruited and trained a four-member data entry team, worked out and set up a referral system for medical cases from the refugee camps, and established and staffed medical contact office for refugees in Skopje and Tetovo. Furthermore, it organized and staffed a mobile medical screening team, developed and implemented the system and criteria for the classification of referred medical cases, continuously registered and classified the incoming medical reports, contacted regularly the national delegates and referred to them the medically prioritized cases asking for acceptance and evacuation, and co-operated and continuously exchanged the information with UNHCR Medical Co-ordination and HEP team. Within the timeframe of the project, 1,032 medical cases were successfully evacuated for medical treatment to 25 host countries throughout the world. IOM found that those refugees suffering from health problems, who at the time of the termination of the program were still in Macedonia and had not been assisted by the project, were not likely to have been priority one cases, whose health problems could be solved only in a third country. The majority of these vulnerable people needed social rather than medical care and assistance a challenge that international aid agencies needed to address in Macedonia and will need to address elsewhere.

Long-term outcomes of patients evacuated from hospitals near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the Great East Japan Earthquake.

PubMed

Igarashi, Yutaka; Tagami, Takashi; Hagiwara, Jun; Kanaya, Takahiro; Kido, Norihiro; Omura, Mariko; Tosa, Ryoichi; Yokota, Hiroyuki

2018-01-01

After the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, the Japanese government issued a mandatory evacuation order for people living within a 20 km radius of the nuclear power plant. The aim of the current study was to investigate long-term outcomes of these patients and identify factors related to mortality. Patients who were evacuated from hospitals near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to the Aizu Chuo Hospital from 15 to 26 March, 2011 were included in this study. The following data were collected from medical records: age, sex, activities of daily life, hospital they were admitted in at the time of earthquake, distance between the facility and the nuclear power plant, reasons of evacuation and number of transfers. The patient outcomes were collected from medical records and/or investigated on the telephone in January 2012. A total of 97 patients (28 men and 69 women) were transferred from 10 hospitals via ambulances or buses. No patients died or experienced exacerbation during transfer. Median age of the patients was 86 years. Of the total, 36 patients were not able to obey commands, 44 were bed-ridden and 61 were unable to sustain themselves via oral intake of food. Among 86 patients who were followed-up, 41 (48%) died at the end of 2011. Multiple-regression analysis showed that non-oral intake [Hazard Ratio (HR): 6.07, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.94-19.0] and male sex [HR: 8.35, 95% CI: 2.14-32.5] had significant impact on mortality. This study found that 48% of the evacuated patients died 9 months after the earthquake and they had significantly higher mortality rate than the nursing home residents. Non-oral intake and male sex had significant impact on mortality. These patients should be considered as especially vulnerable in case of hospital evacuation.

Marking emergency exits and evacuation routes with sound beacons utilizing the precedence effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wijngaarden, Sander J.; Bronkhorst, Adelbert W.; Boer, Louis C.

2004-05-01

Sound beacons can be extremely useful during emergency evacuations, especially when vision is obscured by smoke. When exits are marked with suitable sound sources, people can find these using only their capacity for directional hearing. Unfortunately, unless very explicit instructions were given, sound beacons currently commercially available (based on modulated noise) led to disappointing results during an evacuation experiment in a traffic tunnel. Only 19% out of 65 subjects were able to find an exit by ear. A signal designed to be more self-explanatory and less hostile-sounding (alternating chime signal and spoken message ``exit here'') increased the success rate to 86%. In a more complex environment-a mock-up of a ship's interior-routes to the exit were marked using multiple beacons. By applying carefully designed time delays between successive beacons, the direction of the route was marked, utilizing the precedence effect. Out of 34 subjects, 71% correctly followed the evacuation route by ear (compared to 24% for a noise signal as used in commercially available beacons). Even when subjects were forced to make a worst-case left-right decision at a T-junction, between two beacons differing only in arrival of the first wave front, 77% made the right decision.

[Aeromedical evacuation of critically ill patients in developing countries A retrospective study on 244 patients in Djibouti].

PubMed

Bordes, J; Loheas, D; Benois, A

2015-01-01

The pratice of intensive care in Africa is marked by a wide variety of health care delivery. Only a few centers offer specialized intensive care units, as cardiac or neurological units. That may explain the need for aeromedical evacuations for patients whose condition exceeds local capacity. Our objective was to assess whether the proportion of patients admitted to intensive care and evacuated had increased between 1997 and 2013 in a developing country, Djibouti. We examined the activity register of Bouffard Hospital intensive care unit in Djibouti to determine the number and characteristics of patients evacuated by air ambulance during a 16 years period. From January 1997 to December 2013, a total of 244 patients were evacuated. The evacuation rate was 5.74ù of the patients admitted to the entire duration of the study. The rate of patients evacuated was not different between 1997 and 2013 (5,69ù versus 8,33ù respectively, p = 0,269). However, the rate of djiboutian evacuated patients was statistically different between 1997 and 2013 (0,96ù versus 4,46ù, p = 0,02). The main causes were severe trauma injuries, cardiovascular diseases and neurological diseases. The aeromedical evacuation of a critically ill patient in a developing country is a process requiring heavy logistics and depending on the medical skills available in the area, and financial resources that can be implemented for the patient. Our study shows that medical evacuations in favor of Djiboutian patients are marginal but are increasing over the past decade.

Does Non-Compliance with Route/Destination Assignment Compromise Evacuation Efficiency?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Fang; Han, Lee; Chin, Shih-Miao

2007-01-01

This paper documents studies of two real-world network evacuation cases, each with a different, but proven, simulation software package. The purpose of these studies was to examine whether the rate of evacuees' compliance with predetermined route/destination assignments would have an impact on the efficiency of evacuation operations. Results from both cases suggest that a rate of less than 100% compliance does not compromise evacuation efficiency. In fact, although this is counter-intuitive, evacuation efficiency would actually improve as a result of "sensible" non-compliance on the part of the evacuees. A closer observation of the results revealed that the somewhat unexpected improvementmore » results from a reduction in congestion along designated evacuation routes as evacuees spread out to less prominent parallel streets and other non-congested outbound routes. This suggests that by being limited by the zone-to-zone and one-to-one assignment framework, conventional evacuation plans may have fallen short of providing the most efficient guidance to evacuees. To address this issue, some systematic means, perhaps simulation-based, should be performed to assess the zone partitions, route designations, and destination assignments in existing evacuation plans. Thus, evacuation planning with route/destination assignments based on origin zones may be flawed and may deserve reconsideration. After all, once en route, where an evacuee is coming from is of far less consequence than where he or she is going.« less

The application of Firefly algorithm in an Adaptive Emergency Evacuation Centre Management (AEECM) for dynamic relocation of flood victims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ChePa, Noraziah; Hashim, Nor Laily; Yusof, Yuhanis; Hussain, Azham

2016-08-01

Flood evacuation centre is defined as a temporary location or area of people from disaster particularly flood as a rescue or precautionary measure. Gazetted evacuation centres are normally located at secure places which have small chances from being drowned by flood. However, due to extreme flood several evacuation centres in Kelantan were unexpectedly drowned. Currently, there is no study done on proposing a decision support aid to reallocate victims and resources of the evacuation centre when the situation getting worsens. Therefore, this study proposes a decision aid model to be utilized in realizing an adaptive emergency evacuation centre management system. This study undergoes two main phases; development of algorithm and models, and development of a web-based and mobile app. The proposed model operates using Firefly multi-objective optimization algorithm that creates an optimal schedule for the relocation of victims and resources for an evacuation centre. The proposed decision aid model and the adaptive system can be applied in supporting the National Security Council's respond mechanisms for handling disaster management level II (State level) especially in providing better management of the flood evacuating centres.

Enhancing Evacuation Plans with a Situation Awareness System Based on End-User Knowledge Provision

PubMed Central

Morales, Augusto; Alcarria, Ramon; Martin, Diego; Robles, Tomas

2014-01-01

Recent disasters have shown that having clearly defined preventive procedures and decisions is a critical component that minimizes evacuation hazards and ensures a rapid and successful evolution of evacuation plans. In this context, we present our Situation-Aware System for enhancing Evacuation Plans (SASEP) system, which allows creating end-user business rules that technically support the specific events, conditions and actions related to evacuation plans. An experimental validation was carried out where 32 people faced a simulated emergency situation, 16 of them using SASEP and the other 16 using a legacy system based on static signs. From the results obtained, we compare both techniques and discuss in which situations SASEP offers a better evacuation route option, confirming that it is highly valuable when there is a threat in the evacuation route. In addition, a study about user satisfaction using both systems is presented showing in which cases the systems are assessed as satisfactory, relevant and not frustrating. PMID:24961212

Enhancing evacuation plans with a situation awareness system based on end-user knowledge provision.

PubMed

Morales, Augusto; Alcarria, Ramon; Martin, Diego; Robles, Tomas

2014-06-24

Recent disasters have shown that having clearly defined preventive procedures and decisions is a critical component that minimizes evacuation hazards and ensures a rapid and successful evolution of evacuation plans. In this context, we present our Situation-Aware System for enhancing Evacuation Plans (SASEP) system, which allows creating end-user business rules that technically support the specific events, conditions and actions related to evacuation plans. An experimental validation was carried out where 32 people faced a simulated emergency situation, 16 of them using SASEP and the other 16 using a legacy system based on static signs. From the results obtained, we compare both techniques and discuss in which situations SASEP offers a better evacuation route option, confirming that it is highly valuable when there is a threat in the evacuation route. In addition, a study about user satisfaction using both systems is presented showing in which cases the systems are assessed as satisfactory, relevant and not frustrating.

The role of the defaecating pouchogram in the assessment of evacuation difficulty after restorative proctocolectomy and pouch-anal anastomosis.

PubMed

Stellingwerf, M E; Maeda, Y; Patel, U; Vaizey, C J; Warusavitarne, J; Bemelman, W A; Clark, S K

2016-08-01

Restorative proctocolectomy (RPC) with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) is the most frequently performed operation for intractable ulcerative colitis (UC) and for many patients with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). It can be complicated by a functional evacuation difficulty, which is not well understood. We aimed to evaluate the role of defaecating pouchography in an attempt to assess the mechanism of evacuation difficulty in pouch patients. All RPC patients who had had a defaecating pouchogram for evacuation difficulty at one hospital between 2006 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. The findings and features were correlated with the symptoms. Demographic, clinical and radiological variables were analysed. Eighty-seven [55 (63%) female] patients aged 47.6 ± 12.5 years (mean standard ± SD) were identified. Thirty-five had a mechanical outlet obstruction and 52 had no identified mechanical cause to explain the evacuation difficulty. The mean age of these 52 [33 (63%) female] patients was 48.2 ± 13 years. Of these 52 patients, significantly more used anti-diarrhoeal medication (P = 0.029), complained of a high frequency of defaecation (P = 0.005), experienced a longer time to the initiation of defaecation (P = 0.049) and underwent pouchoscopy (P = 0.003). Biofeedback appeared to improve the symptoms in 7 of 16 patients with a nonmechanical defaecatory difficulty. The most common findings on defaecating pouchography included residual barium of more than 33% after an attempted evacuation (46%, n = 24), slow evacuation (35%, n = 18) and mucosal irregularity (33%, n = 17). Correlation between radiological features and symptoms showed a statistically significant relationship between straining, anal pain, incontinence and urgency with patterns of anismus or pelvic floor descent or weakness seen on the defaecating pouchogram. Symptoms of incomplete evacuation, difficulty in the initiation of defaecation, high defaecatory frequency and abdominal pain were not correlated with the radiological features of the pouchogram. Defaecating pouchography may be useful for identifying anismus and pelvic floor disorders in pouch patients who have symptoms of straining, anal pain or incontinence. In patients with a high frequency of defaecation and abdominal pain it does not provide clinically meaningful information. Patients who complain of straining, incontinence, anal pain or urgency and have anismus or pelvic floor disorders may benefit from behavioural therapy. Colorectal Disease © 2016 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

GRACE under fire.

PubMed

Stewart, Sheena

2016-01-01

On May 1, 2016, a wildfire broke out south of Fort McMurray, Alberta. Although fires aren't uncommon at this time of year in northern Alberta, a dry winter followed by an even drier spring had turned the countryside around the city into tinder. By May 3, whipped on by high winds and 32° heat, the wildfire grew out of control, forcing a mandatory evacuation of almost 90,000 people in the city and surrounding communities. It also necessitated an emergency evacuation of the patients at the Northern Lights Regional Health Centre, where registered nurse JoAnn Cluney was on shift in the emergency department.

Benefits of volcano monitoring far outweigh costs - the case of Mount Pinatubo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, Chris G.; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.

1997-01-01

The climactic June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, was the largest volcanic eruption in this century to affect a heavily populated area. Because it was forecast by scientists from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and the U.S. Geological Survey, civil and military leaders were able to order massive evacuations and take measures to protect property before the eruption. Thousands of lives were saved and hundreds of millions of dollars in property losses averted. The savings in property alone were many times the total costs of the forecasting and evacuations.

Elementary students' evacuation route choice in a classroom: A questionnaire-based method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Song, Ziqi

2018-02-01

Children evacuation is a critical but challenging issue. Unfortunately, existing researches fail to effectively describe children evacuation, which is likely due to the lack of experimental and empirical data. In this paper, a questionnaire-based experiment was conducted with children aged 8-12 years to study children route choice behavior during evacuation from in a classroom with two exits. 173 effective questionnaires were collected and the corresponding data were analyzed. From the statistical results, we obtained the following findings: (1) position, congestion, group behavior, and backtracking behavior have significant effects on children route choice during evacuation; (2) age only affects children backtracking behavior, and (3) no prominent effects based on gender and guidance were observed. The above findings may help engineers design some effective evacuation strategies for children.

Minimizing EVA Airlock Time and Depress Gas Losses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trevino, Luis A.; Lafuse, Sharon A.

2008-01-01

This paper describes the need and solution for minimizing EVA airlock time and depress gas losses using a new method that minimizes EVA out-the-door time for a suited astronaut and reclaims most of the airlock depress gas. This method consists of one or more related concepts that use an evacuated reservoir tank to store and reclaim the airlock depress gas. The evacuated tank can be an inflatable tank, a spent fuel tank from a lunar lander descent stage, or a backup airlock. During EVA airlock operations, the airlock and reservoir would be equalized at some low pressure, and through proper selection of reservoir size, most of the depress gas would be stored in the reservoir for later reclamation. The benefit of this method is directly applicable to long duration lunar and Mars missions that require multiple EVA missions (up to 100, two-person lunar EVAs) and conservation of consumables, including depress pump power and depress gas. The current ISS airlock gas reclamation method requires approximately 45 minutes of the astronaut s time in the airlock and 1 KW in electrical power. The proposed method would decrease the astronaut s time in the airlock because the depress gas is being temporarily stored in a reservoir tank for later recovery. Once the EVA crew is conducting the EVA, the volume in the reservoir would be pumped back to the cabin at a slow rate. Various trades were conducted to optimize this method, which include time to equalize the airlock with the evacuated reservoir versus reservoir size, pump power to reclaim depress gas versus time allotted, inflatable reservoir pros and cons (weight, volume, complexity), and feasibility of spent lunar nitrogen and oxygen tanks as reservoirs.

The Asia-Pacific effects of a megatsunami along the Tonga Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

2015-04-01

A megatsunami (M>9.0) along the Tonga Trench has far-reaching consequences for 4 major continents of the world, and exposure ranging from the cities of Sydney and Brisbane, the coastlines of Japan, Canada, USA, and along South America not to mention the Pacific Islands. Using the TSUDAT software of Geoscience Australia, relevant scenarios are selected for the location. Fault mechanics and the possible regime are also then examined to create the scenario. In this study, the effects of a megatsunami scenario are investigated including the run-up heights in coastal regions on these four continents in addition to other hazard effects. Global level DEM and bathymetry data is used to provide a first estimate of the exposed population, built infrastructure (capital stock) and GDP in the tsunami inundation area. The uncertainties of such a study are taken into account by adjusting the scenario via source mechanism, magnitude range and directivity effects. This is combined with basic vulnerability functions from historical tsunamis in order to give an exposed and estimated loss and cost of reconstruction across the Pacific rim. Notes as to the warning times, country preparation and evacuation plans for tsunamis are also made given long lead times in some cases.

Lessons learned from the 2010 evacuations at Merapi volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Estuning Tyas Wulan; Lavigne, Franck; Picquout, Adrien; de Bélizal, Edouard; Brunstein, Daniel; Grancher, Delphine; Sartohadi, Junun; Cholik, Noer; Vidal, Céline

2013-07-01

The rapid onset and large magnitude of the 2010 eruption of Merapi posed significant challenges for evacuations and resulted in a peak number of almost 400,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). A pre-existing hazard map and an evacuation plan based on the relatively small magnitude of previous eruptions of the 20th century were utilized by emergency officials during the initial phase of the eruption (25 October-3 November, 2010). However, when the magnitude of the eruption increased greatly on 3-5 November 2010, the initial evacuation plan had to be abandoned as danger zones were expanded rapidly and the scale and pace of the evacuation increased dramatically. Fortunately, orders to evacuate were communicated quickly through a variety of communication methods and as a result many thousands of lives were saved. However, there were also problems that resulted from this rapid and larger-than-expected evacuation; and there were lessons learned that can improve future mass evacuations at Merapi and other volcanoes. We analyzed the results of 1969 questionnaires and conducted a series of interviews with community leaders and emergency officials. Results were compiled for periods both during and after the 2010 eruption. Our results show that: (1) trust in the Indonesian government and volcanologists was very high after the eruption; (2) multiple modes of communication were used to relay warnings and evacuation orders; (3) 50% to 70% of IDPs returned to the danger zone during the crisis despite evacuation orders; (4) preparation before the eruption was critical to the successes and included improvements to roads and education programs, (5) public education about hazards and evacuation protocols before the eruption was focused in the perceived highest danger zone where it was effective yet, confusion and loss of life in other areas demonstrated that education programs in all hazard zones are needed to prepare for larger-than-normal eruptions, and (6) improvements in registration of evacuees, in providing for livestock, and in activities and work programs in evacuation camps (as well as government restrictions and policy changes) are also needed to prevent evacuees from returning to their homes during the crisis period.

Evacuation decisions in a chemical air pollution incident: cross sectional survey

PubMed Central

Kinra, S; Lewendon, G; Nelder, R; Herriott, N; Mohan, R; Hort, M; Harrison, S; Murray, V

2005-01-01

Objective To compare the health outcomes in sheltered and evacuated populations after a chemical incident in a plastics factory. Design Cross sectional survey. Setting Urban area in southwest England. Participants 1750 residents from the area exposed to the chemical smoke, of which 472 were evacuated and the remaining 1278 were advised to shelter indoors. Main outcome measure Number of adverse health symptoms. A case was defined by the presence of four or more symptoms. Main results 1096 residents (63%; 299 evacuated, 797 sheltered) provided data for analyses. The mean symptom score and proportion of cases were higher in evacuated people than in the sheltered population (evacuated: symptom score 1.9, cases 19.7% (n = 59); sheltered: symptom score 1.0, cases 9.5% (n = 76); P < 0.001 for both). The difference between the two groups attenuated markedly at the end of two weeks from the start of the incident. The two main modifiable risk factors for the odds of becoming a case were evacuation (odds ratio 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.7 to 3.8) and direct exposure to smoke for more than two hours on the first day of the incident (2.0, 1.7 to 2.3). The distance of residence from the factory or level of exposure before intervention (first six hours) had little effect on the odds of a person becoming a case. Conclusions Sheltering may have been a better protective action than evacuation in this chemical incident, which is consistent with the prevailing expert view. Although this study has limitations, it is based on a real event. Evacuations carry their own risks and resource implications; increased awareness may help to reduce unnecessary evacuations in the future. PMID:15976419

An emergency-adaptive routing scheme for wireless sensor networks for building fire hazard monitoring.

PubMed

Zeng, Yuanyuan; Sreenan, Cormac J; Sitanayah, Lanny; Xiong, Naixue; Park, Jong Hyuk; Zheng, Guilin

2011-01-01

Fire hazard monitoring and evacuation for building environments is a novel application area for the deployment of wireless sensor networks. In this context, adaptive routing is essential in order to ensure safe and timely data delivery in building evacuation and fire fighting resource applications. Existing routing mechanisms for wireless sensor networks are not well suited for building fires, especially as they do not consider critical and dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, an emergency-adaptive, real-time and robust routing protocol is presented for emergency situations such as building fire hazard applications. The protocol adapts to handle dynamic emergency scenarios and works well with the routing hole problem. Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that our protocol provides a real-time routing mechanism that is well suited for dynamic emergency scenarios in building fires when compared with other related work.

An Emergency-Adaptive Routing Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks for Building Fire Hazard Monitoring

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yuanyuan; Sreenan, Cormac J.; Sitanayah, Lanny; Xiong, Naixue; Park, Jong Hyuk; Zheng, Guilin

2011-01-01

Fire hazard monitoring and evacuation for building environments is a novel application area for the deployment of wireless sensor networks. In this context, adaptive routing is essential in order to ensure safe and timely data delivery in building evacuation and fire fighting resource applications. Existing routing mechanisms for wireless sensor networks are not well suited for building fires, especially as they do not consider critical and dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, an emergency-adaptive, real-time and robust routing protocol is presented for emergency situations such as building fire hazard applications. The protocol adapts to handle dynamic emergency scenarios and works well with the routing hole problem. Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that our protocol provides a real-time routing mechanism that is well suited for dynamic emergency scenarios in building fires when compared with other related work. PMID:22163774

Measurement of Individual Doses of Radiation by Personal Dosimeter Is Important for the Return of Residents from Evacuation Order Areas after Nuclear Disaster

PubMed Central

Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Taira, Yasuyuki; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Ide, Juichi; Endo, Yuuko; Kudo, Takashi; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

2015-01-01

To confirm the availability of individual dose evaluation for the return of residents after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP), we evaluated individual doses of radiation as measured by personal dosimeters in residents who temporarily stayed in Evacuation Order Areas in Kawauchi village, which is partially located within a 20 km radius of the FNPP. We also compared individual doses with the external radiation doses estimated from the ambient dose rates and with doses estimated from the concentrations of radionuclides in the soil around each individual’s house. Individual doses were significantly correlated with the ambient doses in front of the entrances to the houses (r = 0.90, p<0.01), in the backyards (r = 0.41, p<0.01) and in the nearby fields (r = 0.80, p<0.01). The maximum cumulative ambient doses in the backyards and fields around the houses were 6.38 and 9.27 mSv/y, respectively. The maximum cumulative individual dose was 3.28 mSv/y, and the median and minimum doses were 1.35 and 0.71 mSv/y. The estimated external effective doses from concentrations of artificial radionuclides in soil samples ranged from 0.03 to 23.42 mSv/y. The individual doses were moderately correlated with external effective doses in the backyards (r = 0.38, p<0.01) and in the fields (r = 0.36, p<0.01); however, the individual doses were not significantly correlated with the external effective doses in front of the entrances (r = 0.01, p = 0.92). Our study confirmed that individual doses are low levels even in the evacuation order area in Kawauchi village, and external effective dose levels are certainly decreasing due to the decay of artificial radionuclides and the decontamination of contaminated soil. Long-term follow-up of individual doses as well as internal-exposure doses, environmental monitoring and reconstruction of infrastructure are needed so that residents may return to their hometowns after a nuclear disaster. PMID:25806523

Measurement of individual doses of radiation by personal dosimeter is important for the return of residents from evacuation order areas after nuclear disaster.

PubMed

Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Taira, Yasuyuki; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Ide, Juichi; Endo, Yuuko; Kudo, Takashi; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

2015-01-01

To confirm the availability of individual dose evaluation for the return of residents after the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP), we evaluated individual doses of radiation as measured by personal dosimeters in residents who temporarily stayed in Evacuation Order Areas in Kawauchi village, which is partially located within a 20 km radius of the FNPP. We also compared individual doses with the external radiation doses estimated from the ambient dose rates and with doses estimated from the concentrations of radionuclides in the soil around each individual's house. Individual doses were significantly correlated with the ambient doses in front of the entrances to the houses (r = 0.90, p<0.01), in the backyards (r = 0.41, p<0.01) and in the nearby fields (r = 0.80, p<0.01). The maximum cumulative ambient doses in the backyards and fields around the houses were 6.38 and 9.27 mSv/y, respectively. The maximum cumulative individual dose was 3.28 mSv/y, and the median and minimum doses were 1.35 and 0.71 mSv/y. The estimated external effective doses from concentrations of artificial radionuclides in soil samples ranged from 0.03 to 23.42 mSv/y. The individual doses were moderately correlated with external effective doses in the backyards (r = 0.38, p<0.01) and in the fields (r = 0.36, p<0.01); however, the individual doses were not significantly correlated with the external effective doses in front of the entrances (r = 0.01, p = 0.92). Our study confirmed that individual doses are low levels even in the evacuation order area in Kawauchi village, and external effective dose levels are certainly decreasing due to the decay of artificial radionuclides and the decontamination of contaminated soil. Long-term follow-up of individual doses as well as internal-exposure doses, environmental monitoring and reconstruction of infrastructure are needed so that residents may return to their hometowns after a nuclear disaster.

Enhancing resource coordination for multi-modal evacuation planning.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

This research project seeks to increase knowledge about coordinating effective multi-modal evacuation for disasters. It does so by identifying, evaluating, and assessing : current transportation management approaches for multi-modal evacuation planni...

Guidelines for hurricane evacuation signing and markings

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-12-01

Based on focus group input and surveys of motorists who have recent hurricane evacuation experience, researchers developed guidelines for various hurricane evacuation signs and markings, including route signs, contraflow signs, emergency shoulder lan...

The effect of overwing hatch placement on evacuation from smaller transport aircraft.

PubMed

Wilson, Rebecca L; Muir, Helen C

2010-02-01

Overwing exits are installed on a number of smaller transport aircraft. With a traditional overwing exit, once released, the hatch is not attached to the fuselage and will fall into the cabin. To operate, the hatch has to be brought inwards, manoeuvred and placed in a location where it does not obstruct egress. Accidents and experimental studies have shown that the hatch is not always disposed of into an appropriate location. Evacuation trials from a smaller transport aircraft cabin were conducted. The placement of the exit hatch was manipulated. The results indicated that hatch placement had a significant effect on passenger evacuation rates from a smaller transport aircraft, with the internal placement tested resulting in slower evacuation rates. The study has highlighted the importance of operators disposing of the hatch into a location whereby it does not impede egress. One way to ensure this would be the installation of an automatically disposed hatch. Statement of Relevance: It is important that all occupants can evacuate an aircraft rapidly if required. The influence of overwing hatch placement on evacuation from smaller transport aircraft was addressed Evacuation trials concluded that an inappropriately placed hatch can negatively influence evacuation rates. Improvements to exit design and passenger education were suggested.

Risk of large-scale evacuation based on the effectiveness of rescue strategies under different crowd densities.

PubMed

Wang, Jinghong; Lo, Siuming; Wang, Qingsong; Sun, Jinhua; Mu, Honglin

2013-08-01

Crowd density is a key factor that influences the moving characteristics of a large group of people during a large-scale evacuation. In this article, the macro features of crowd flow and subsequent rescue strategies were considered, and a series of characteristic crowd densities that affect large-scale people movement, as well as the maximum bearing density when the crowd is extremely congested, were analyzed. On the basis of characteristic crowd densities, the queuing theory was applied to simulate crowd movement. Accordingly, the moving characteristics of the crowd and the effects of typical crowd density-which is viewed as the representation of the crowd's arrival intensity in front of the evacuation passageways-on rescue strategies was studied. Furthermore, a "risk axle of crowd density" is proposed to determine the efficiency of rescue strategies in a large-scale evacuation, i.e., whether the rescue strategies are able to effectively maintain or improve evacuation efficiency. Finally, through some rational hypotheses for the value of evacuation risk, a three-dimensional distribution of the evacuation risk is established to illustrate the risk axle of crowd density. This work aims to make some macro, but original, analysis on the risk of large-scale crowd evacuation from the perspective of the efficiency of rescue strategies. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Lightweight cryogenic-compatible pressure vessels for vehicular fuel storage

DOEpatents

Aceves, Salvador; Berry, Gene; Weisberg, Andrew H.

2004-03-23

A lightweight, cryogenic-compatible pressure vessel for flexibly storing cryogenic liquid fuels or compressed gas fuels at cryogenic or ambient temperatures. The pressure vessel has an inner pressure container enclosing a fuel storage volume, an outer container surrounding the inner pressure container to form an evacuated space therebetween, and a thermal insulator surrounding the inner pressure container in the evacuated space to inhibit heat transfer. Additionally, vacuum loss from fuel permeation is substantially inhibited in the evacuated space by, for example, lining the container liner with a layer of fuel-impermeable material, capturing the permeated fuel in the evacuated space, or purging the permeated fuel from the evacuated space.

The basis for the development of a fuselage evacuation time for a ditched helicopter.

PubMed

Brooks, C J; Muir, H C; Gibbs, P N

2001-06-01

When a helicopter ditches or crashes in water, unless the buoyancy bags are inflated, it commonly sinks inverted. Thus, crew and passengers must make an underwater escape. It is postulated that later passengers in the escape sequence do not have the breath-holding ability to conduct a successful escape, particularly if the water is cold. This contributes to the 20-50% mortality rate in survivable accidents. There were 132 immersed subject evaluations which were conducted in daylight and darkness to measure escape times from a helicopter underwater escape trainer, configured to the Super Puma, seated for 15 and 18 passengers. The subjects were highly experienced instructors or Navy clearance divers. The time from when each subject's head disappeared underwater until each subject surfaced and total fuselage evacuation time were measured and any problems hampering escape were noted. Breath-holding for the last subject out ranged from 28 to 92 s. An emergency breathing system was used by a minimum of four subjects each time and a maximum of 11 subjects in one condition. The buoyancy of the survival suit was the principal component that hampered escape. Breath-holding times were too long for the later subjects to escape without resorting to an EBS, in spite of the fact that they were highly trained. For regular crew and passengers flying over water, this would explain the high mortality, etc. Therefore, a new helicopter standard should be developed requiring fuselage design to accommodate total evacuation within 20 s from underwater. For current helicopters, where this cannot be achieved, passengers should be provided with some form of air supply, or, after ditching, the helicopter should be modified so that it will stay afloat on its side and retain an air space in the cabin.

Preoperative Mechanical Bowel Evacuation Reduces Intraoperative Bleeding and Operation Time in Spinal Surgery.

PubMed

Rezvani, Majid; Abbasi, Reza; Tabesh, Homayoon; Dehghani, Leila; Dolatkhah, Shahab; Nasri, Maryam; Kolahdouzan, Mohsen; Meamar, Rokhsareh

2018-06-01

Randomized clinical trial. In this study, we evaluated the effect of mechanical evacuation of the bowels prior to operation on intraoperative bleeding. Bleeding is the most significant complication in patients undergoing spinal surgery. We randomly divided 108 individuals planned to undergo spinal surgery into two age-, sex-, and co-morbidity (especially preoperative hemoglobin [Hb])-matched groups of 54. The treatment group was administered polyethylene glycol (PEG) before the operation, whereas the control group was not. The exact amount (mL) of bleeding during operation, operative time, and approximate amount of blood transfused were recorded. The volume of bleeding and Hb level were also recorded 24 and 48 hours postoperatively. T -tests revealed that intraoperative bleeding, the volume of transfusion, and operative time were significantly lower in the treatment group than in the control group. Statistically significant correlations of intraoperative bleeding with age, body mass index (BMI), preoperative Hb levels, operative time, the volume of transfusion, hospitalization time, and 24- and 48-hour postoperative bleeding were observed ( p =0.001, all). Repeated measures analysis of covariance after adjusting the covariate variables revealed that the volume of bleeding showed a near-significant trend in the treatment group compared with that in the control group ( p =0.056). Diabetic females had the highest bleeding amount between the groups ( p =0.03). Bleeding was higher in patients with higher BMI ( p =0.02) and was related to operative time ( p =0.001) in both the groups. Preoperative gastrointestinal tract evacuation by PEG administration can decrease intraoperative bleeding in spinal surgeries; however, more research is imperative regarding PEG administration in surgical procedures for this purpose.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP recent outcomes, including the real time monitoring as well as the protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts in Puerto Rico.

Evacuating populations with special needs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-01

Evacuation operations are conducted under the authority of, and based on decisions by, local and state authorities. The purpose of this primer, Evacuating Populations with Special Needs, is to provide local and state emergency managers, government of...

Participatory action research methodology in disaster research: results from the World Trade Center evacuation study.

PubMed

Gershon, Robyn R M; Rubin, Marcie S; Qureshi, Kristine A; Canton, Allison N; Matzner, Frederick J

2008-10-01

Participatory action research (PAR) methodology is an effective tool in identifying and implementing risk-reduction interventions. It has been used extensively in occupational health research, but not, to our knowledge, in disaster research. A PAR framework was incorporated into the World Trade Center evacuation study, which was designed to identify the individual, organizational, and structural (environmental) factors that affected evacuation from the World Trade Center Towers 1 and 2 on September 11, 2001. PAR teams-comprising World Trade Center evacuees, study investigators, and expert consultants-worked collaboratively to develop a set of recommendations designed to facilitate evacuation from high-rise office buildings and reduce risk of injury among evacuees. Two PAR teams worked first separately and then collectively to identify data-driven strategies for improvement of high-rise building evacuation. The teams identified interventions targeting individual, organizational, and structural (environmental) barriers to safe and rapid evacuation. PAR teams were effective in identifying numerous feasible and cost-effective strategies for improvement of high-rise emergency preparedness and evacuation. This approach may have utility in other workplace disaster prevention planning and response programs.

The significance of a small, level-3 'semi evacuation' hospital in a terrorist attack in a nearby town.

PubMed

Pinkert, Moshe; Leiba, Adi; Zaltsman, Eilon; Erez, Onn; Blumenfeld, Amir; Avinoam, Shkolnick; Laor, Daniel; Schwartz, Dagan; Goldberg, Avishay; Levi, Yehezkel; Bar-Dayan, Yaron

2007-09-01

Terrorist attacks can occur in remote areas causing mass-casualty incidents MCIs far away from level-1 trauma centres. This study draws lessons from an MCI pertaining to the management of primary and secondary evacuation and the operational mode practiced. Data was collected from formal debriefings during and after the event, and the medical response, interactions and main outcomes analysed using Disastrous Incidents Systematic Analysis through Components, Interactions and Results (DISAST-CIR) methodology. A total of 112 people were evacuated from the scene-66 to the nearby level 3 Laniado hospital, including the eight critically and severely injured patients. Laniado hospital was instructed to act as an evacuation hospital but the flow of patients ended rapidly and it was decided to admit moderately injured victims. We introduce a novel concept of a 'semi-evacuation hospital'. This mode of operation should be selected for small-scale events in which the evacuation hospital has hospitalization capacity and is not geographically isolated. We suggest that level-3 hospitals in remote areas should be prepared and drilled to work in semi-evacuation mode during MCIs.

How to simulate pedestrian behaviors in seismic evacuation for vulnerability reduction of existing buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quagliarini, Enrico; Bernardini, Gabriele; D'Orazio, Marco

2017-07-01

Understanding and representing how individuals behave in earthquake emergencies would be essentially to assess the impact of vulnerability reduction strategies on existing buildings in seismic areas. In fact, interactions between individuals and the scenario (modified by the earthquake occurrence) are really important in order to understand the possible additional risks for people, especially during the evacuation phase. The current approach is based on "qualitative" aspects, in order to define best practice guidelines for Civil Protection and populations. On the contrary, a "quantitative" description of human response and evacuation motion in similar conditions is urgently needed. Hence, this work defines the rules for pedestrians' earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios, by taking advantages of previous results of real-world evacuation analyses. In particular, motion laws for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model equation. The proposed model could be used for evaluating individuals' evacuation process and so for defining operative strategies for interferences reduction in critical urban fabric parts (e.g.: interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition, city parts projects).

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents.

PubMed

Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

2018-04-01

In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows' milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper.

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents

PubMed Central

Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Abstract In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows’ milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper. PMID:29415268

Comparison of endoscopic evacuation, stereotactic aspiration and craniotomy for the treatment of supratentorial hypertensive intracerebral haemorrhage: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Xu, Xinghua; Zheng, Yi; Chen, Xiaolei; Li, Fangye; Zhang, Huaping; Ge, Xin

2017-06-28

Hypertensive intracerebral haemorrhage (HICH) is the most common form of haemorrhagic stroke with the highest morbidity and mortality of all stroke types. The choice of surgical or conservative treatment for patients with HICH remains controversial. In recent years, minimally invasive surgeries, such as endoscopic evacuation and stereotactic aspiration, have been attempted for haematoma removal and offer promise. However, research evidence on the benefits of endoscopic evacuation or stereotactic aspiration is still insufficient. A multicentre, randomised controlled trial will be conducted to compare the efficacy of endoscopic evacuation, stereotactic aspiration and craniotomy in the treatment of supratentorial HICH. About 1350 eligible patients from 10 neurosurgical centres will be randomly assigned to an endoscopic group, a stereotactic group and a craniotomy group at a 1:1:1 ratio. Randomisation is undertaken using a 24-h randomisation service accessed by telephone or the Internet. All patients will receive the corresponding surgery based on their grouping. They will be followed-up at 1, 3 and 6 months after surgery. The primary outcome is the modified Rankin Scale at 6-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes include: haematoma clearance rate; Glasgow Coma Scale 7 days after surgery; rebleeding rate; intracranial infection rate; hospitalisation time; mortality at 1 month and 3 months after surgery; the Barthel Index and the WHO quality of life at 3 months and 6 months after surgery. The trial aims to investigate whether endoscopic evacuation and stereotactic aspiration could improve the outcome of supratentorial HICH compared with craniotomy. The trial will help to determine the best surgical method for the treatment of supratentorial HICH. ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT02811614 . Registered on 20 June 2016.

Endoscope-assisted, minimally invasive evacuation of sub-acute/chronic epidural hematoma: Novelty or paradox of Theseus?

PubMed

Ansari, Ishtyaque; Futane, Sameer; Ansari, Ashfaque

2016-08-01

Sub-acute/chronic epidural hematoma (EDH) may present with nagging symptoms of headache, nausea, vomiting, lethargy, etc. We attempted to offer a minimally invasive, single burr hole, endoscope-assisted evacuation of EDHs instead of a conventional craniotomy. Seven patients with sub-acute/chronic EDH (six supratentorial and one infratentorial) presented to us 3 to 7 days after low-velocity road traffic accidents with complaints of headache and lethargy. The EDH volumes measured between 20 to 50 ml, and the patients were operated on using a single burr hole made through a small incision. We used 0-, 30- and 70-degree, angulated, rigid, high-definition endoscopes to identify and evacuate the organized clots in the extradural space. Flexible catheters were used for suction and irrigation. After achieving hemostasis, the dura was hitched back to the burr hole site. The wound was closed over a negative suction drain. All patients had prompt recovery from symptoms. Postoperative CT scans showed complete or near complete evacuation of the hematomas. The hospital stay and analgesic requirements were minimal. There was no infective complication or conversion to conventional open surgery. The average time for surgery was 77.8 min, and average blood loss was 328.5 ml. Endoscope-assisted evacuation of sub-acute/chronic EDH is a novel concept, which offers quick relief from symptoms in a minimally invasive fashion and a cosmetically acceptable way. None of the standard principles of surgery are hampered. It avoids extensive dissection of the temporalis or sub-occipital muscles. However, achieving hemostasis can be difficult. Further study and better equipment will validate the procedure.

Using integrated modeling for generating watershed-scale dynamic flood maps for Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, S.; Dey, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey, which was categorized as a 1000-year return period event, produced unprecedented rainfall and flooding in Houston. Although the expected rainfall was forecasted much before the event, there was no way to identify which regions were at higher risk of flooding, the magnitude of flooding, and when the impacts of rainfall would be highest. The inability to predict the location, duration, and depth of flooding created uncertainty over evacuation planning and preparation. This catastrophic event highlighted that the conventional approach to managing flood risk using 100-year static flood inundation maps is inadequate because of its inability to predict flood duration and extents for 500-year or 1000-year return period events in real-time. The purpose of this study is to create models that can dynamically predict the impacts of rainfall and subsequent flooding, so that necessary evacuation and rescue efforts can be planned in advance. This study uses a 2D integrated surface water-groundwater model called ICPR (Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing) to simulate both the hydrology and hydrodynamics for Hurricane Harvey. The methodology involves using the NHD stream network to create a 2D model that incorporates rainfall, land use, vadose zone properties and topography to estimate streamflow and generate dynamic flood depths and extents. The results show that dynamic flood mapping captures the flood hydrodynamics more accurately and is able to predict the magnitude, extent and time of occurrence for extreme events such as Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, integrated modeling has the potential to identify regions that are more susceptible to flooding, which is especially useful for large-scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk.

Using highways during notice evacuations operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-12-01

Evacuations may involve hundreds or hundreds of thousands of people. regardless of the numbers, in each and every instance, the transportation network plays a key role in evacuating people out of harms way. recognizing the unique challenges posed ...

Evacuation and rescue in automated guideway transit. Volume 2 : guidebook

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

Evacuation and rescue are significant problems in all transportation systems. : Serious injuries and loss of life can result from situations in which inadequate : means of evacuating and rescuing passengers exist. In conventional transporlation : sys...

Evacuation and Rescue in Automated Guideway Transit : Volume 2. Guidebook.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

Evacuation and rescue are significant problems in all transportation systems. Serious injuries and loss of life can result from situations in which inadequate means of evacuating and rescuing passengers exist. In conventional transporlation systems, ...

Effect of authority figures for pedestrian evacuation at metro stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiao; Zhang, Zenghui; Peng, Gongzhuang; Shi, Guoqiang

2017-01-01

Most pedestrian evacuation literatures are about routing algorithm, human intelligence and behavior etc. Few works studied how to fully explore the function of authority/security figures, who know more of the environment by simply being there every day. To evaluate the effect of authority figure (AF) in complex buildings, this paper fully investigates the AF related factors that may influence the evacuation effect of crowd, such as the number and locations of AFs, their spread of direction, calming effect and distribution strategies etc. Social force based modeling and simulation results show that these factors of AFs play important roles in evacuation efficiency, which means fewer AFs with right guiding strategy can have good evacuation performance. For our case study, Zhichun Avenue station, the conclusion is that deployment of four AFs is a good choice to achieve relatively high evacuation performance yet save cost.

Usability and Visual Communication for Southern California Tsunami Evacuation Information: The importance of information design in disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenichen, C.; Schandler, S.; Wells, M.; Danielsen, T.

2015-12-01

Evacuation behavior, including participation and response, is rarely an individual and isolated process and the outcomes are usually systemic. Ineffective evacuation information can easily attribute to delayed evacuation response. Delays increase demands on already extended emergency personal, increase the likelihood of traffic congestion, and can cause harm to self and property. From an information design perspective, addressing issues in cognitive recall and emergency psychology, this case study examines evacuation messaging including written, audio, and visual presentation of information, and describes the application of design principles and role of visual communication for Southern California tsunami evacuation outreach. The niche of this project is the inclusion of cognitive processing as the driving influence when making formal design decisions and measurable data from a 4-year cognitive recall study to support the solution. Image included shows a tsunami evacaution map before and after the redesign.

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apatu, Emma J. I.; Gregg, Chris E.; Wood, Nathan J.; Wang, Liang

2016-01-01

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

Optimizing Medical Kits for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, A. B,; Foy, Millennia; Myers, G.

2014-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulation outcomes describing the impact of medical events on the mission may be used to optimize the allocation of resources in medical kits. Efficient allocation of medical resources, subject to certain mass and volume constraints, is crucial to ensuring the best outcomes of in-flight medical events. We implement a new approach to this medical kit optimization problem. METHODS We frame medical kit optimization as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing a dynamic programming technique. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 different mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the probability of evacuation and maximizing the Crew Health Index (CHI) for each mission subject to mass and volume constraints. Simulation outcomes using these kits were also compared to outcomes using kits optimized..RESULTS The optimized medical kits generated by the algorithm described here resulted in predicted mission outcomes more closely approached the unlimited-resource scenario for Crew Health Index (CHI) than the implementation in under all optimization priorities. Furthermore, the approach described here improves upon in reducing evacuation when the optimization priority is minimizing the probability of evacuation. CONCLUSIONS This algorithm provides an efficient, effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions using the Integrated Medical Model.

Rapidly locating and characterizing pollutant releases in buildings.

PubMed

Sohn, Michael D; Reynolds, Pamela; Singh, Navtej; Gadgil, Ashok J

2002-12-01

Releases of airborne contaminants in or near a building can lead to significant human exposures unless prompt response measures are taken. However, possible responses can include conflicting strategies, such as shutting the ventilation system off versus running it in a purge mode or having occupants evacuate versus sheltering in place. The proper choice depends in part on knowing the source locations, the amounts released, and the likely future dispersion routes of the pollutants. We present an approach that estimates this information in real time. It applies Bayesian statistics to interpret measurements of airborne pollutant concentrations from multiple sensors placed in the building and computes best estimates and uncertainties of the release conditions. The algorithm is fast, capable of continuously updating the estimates as measurements stream in from sensors. We demonstrate the approach using a hypothetical pollutant release in a five-room building. Unknowns to the interpretation algorithm include location, duration, and strength of the source, and some building and weather conditions. Two sensor sampling plans and three levels of data quality are examined. Data interpretation in all examples is rapid; however, locating and characterizing the source with high probability depends on the amount and quality of data and the sampling plan.

Costs of postabortion care in public sector health facilities in Malawi: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Benson, Janie; Gebreselassie, Hailemichael; Mañibo, Maribel Amor; Raisanen, Keris; Johnston, Heidi Bart; Mhango, Chisale; Levandowski, Brooke A

2015-12-17

Health systems could obtain substantial cost savings by providing safe abortion care rather than providing expensive treatment for complications of unsafely performed abortions. This study estimates current health system costs of treating unsafe abortion complications and compares these findings with newly-projected costs for providing safe abortion in Malawi. We conducted in-depth surveys of medications, supplies, and time spent by clinical personnel dedicated to postabortion care (PAC) for three treatment categories (simple, severe non-surgical, and severe surgical complications) and three uterine evacuation (UE) procedure types (manual vacuum aspiration (MVA), dilation and curettage (D&C) and misoprostol-alone) at 15 purposively-selected public health facilities. Per-case treatment costs were calculated and applied to national, annual PAC caseload data. The median cost per D&C case ($63) was 29% higher than MVA treatment ($49). Costs to treat severe non-surgical complications ($63) were almost five times higher than those of a simple PAC case ($13). Severe surgical complications were especially costly to treat at $128. PAC treatment in public facilities cost an estimated $314,000 annually. Transition to safe, legal abortion would yield an estimated cost reduction of 20%-30%. The method of UE and severity of complications have a large impact on overall costs. With a liberalized abortion law and implementation of induced abortion services with WHO-recommended UE methods, current PAC costs to the health system could markedly decrease.

Transcranial Evacuation of Atypical Progressive Supradiaphragmatic Hematoma After Transsphenoidal Complete Resection of Pituitary Adenoma.

PubMed

Metwali, Hussam; Fahlbusch, Rudolf

2017-06-01

Supradiaphragmatic hematoma is a type of hematoma that occurs after transsphenoidal (TS) resection of pituitary adenoma and requires special management. Two patients had symptomatic supradiaphragmatic hematomas after total TS resection of pituitary adenomas in the absence of vascular anomalies. Both patients also had hydrocephalus at the time of diagnosis of the hematoma. The initial endoscopic endonasal inspection showed no subdiaphragmatic bleeding. The hematoma was evacuated via a frontolateral approach after insertion of an external ventricular drain (EVD). The supradiaphragmatic hematoma could be clinically and radiologically distinguished. It presented early with visual deterioration without headache. The patients developed hydrocephalus, which was associated with deterioration of level of consciousness. Radiologically, the hematoma filled the suprasellar space and was associated with the extension of bleeding in the basal cisterns. Recovery was good in both patients. There were no permanent neurologic deficits. The EVD was removed in both patients. One patient required a ventriculoperitoneal shunt because of delayed hydrocephalus. Supradiaphragmatic hematoma can be clinically and radiologically distinguished from other types of hematoma occurring after TS resection of pituitary adenoma. Transcranial surgery should be performed to manage supradiaphragmatic hematoma, when symptomatic. Insertion of an EVD at the time of evacuation is mandatory to relax the brain and to alleviate the hydrocephalus. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vector-control response in a post-flood disaster setting, Honiara, Solomon Islands, 2014.

PubMed

Shortus, Matthew; Musto, Jennie; Bugoro, Hugo; Butafa, Charles; Sio, Alison; Joshua, Cynthia

2016-01-01

The close quartering and exposed living conditions in evacuation centres and the potential increase in vector density after flooding in Solomon Islands resulted in an increased risk of exposure for the occupants to vectorborne diseases. In April 2014, Solomon Islands experienced a flash flooding event that affected many areas and displaced a large number of people. In the capital, Honiara, nearly 10 000 people were housed in emergency evacuation centres at the peak of the post-flood emergency. At the time of the floods, the number of dengue cases was increasing, following a record outbreak in 2013. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme with the assistance of the World Health Organization implemented an emergency vector-control response plan to provide protection to the at-risk populations in the evacuation centres. The National Surveillance Unit also activated an early warning disease surveillance system to monitor communicable diseases, including dengue and malaria. Timely and strategic application of the emergency interventions probably prevented an increase in dengue and malaria cases in the affected areas. Rapid and appropriate precautionary vector-control measures applied in a post-natural disaster setting can prevent and mitigate vectorborne disease incidences. Collecting vector surveillance data allows better analysis of vector-control operations' effectiveness.

Vector-control response in a post-flood disaster setting, Honiara, Solomon Islands, 2014

PubMed Central

Musto, Jennie; Bugoro, Hugo; Butafa, Charles; Sio, Alison; Joshua, Cynthia

2016-01-01

Problem The close quartering and exposed living conditions in evacuation centres and the potential increase in vector density after flooding in Solomon Islands resulted in an increased risk of exposure for the occupants to vectorborne diseases. Context In April 2014, Solomon Islands experienced a flash flooding event that affected many areas and displaced a large number of people. In the capital, Honiara, nearly 10 000 people were housed in emergency evacuation centres at the peak of the post-flood emergency. At the time of the floods, the number of dengue cases was increasing, following a record outbreak in 2013. Action The National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme with the assistance of the World Health Organization implemented an emergency vector-control response plan to provide protection to the at-risk populations in the evacuation centres. The National Surveillance Unit also activated an early warning disease surveillance system to monitor communicable diseases, including dengue and malaria. Outcome Timely and strategic application of the emergency interventions probably prevented an increase in dengue and malaria cases in the affected areas. Discussion Rapid and appropriate precautionary vector-control measures applied in a post-natural disaster setting can prevent and mitigate vectorborne disease incidences. Collecting vector surveillance data allows better analysis of vector-control operations’ effectiveness. PMID:27757255

Exergy Analyses of Fabricated Compound Parabolic Solar Collector with Evacuated Tubes at Different Operating Conditions: Indore (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geete, Ankur; Dubey, Akash; Sharma, Ankush; Dubey, Anshul

2018-05-01

In this research work, compound parabolic solar collector (CPC) with evacuated tubes is fabricated. Main benefit of CPC is that there is no requirement of solar tracking system. With fabricated CPC; outlet temperatures of flowing fluid, instantaneous efficiencies, useful heat gain rates and inlet exergies (with and without considering Sun's cone angle) are experimentally found. Observations are taken at different time intervals (1200, 1230, 1300, 1330 and 1400 h), mass flow rates (1.15, 0.78, 0.76, 0.86 and 0.89 g/s), ambient temperatures and with various dimensions of solar collector. This research work is concluded as; maximum instantaneous efficiency is 69.87% which was obtained with 0.76 g/s flow rate of water at 1300 h and 42°C is the maximum temperature difference which was also found at same time. Maximum inlet exergies are 139.733 and 139.532 kW with and without considering Sun's cone angle at 1300 h, respectively. Best thermal performance from the fabricated CPC with evacuated tubes is found at 1300 h. Maximum inlet exergy is 141.365 kW which was found at 1300 h with 0.31 m aperture width and 1.72 m absorber pipe length.

3D Building Evacuation Route Modelling and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, W.; Armenakis, C.

2014-11-01

The most common building evacuation approach currently applied is to have evacuation routes planned prior to these emergency events. These routes are usually the shortest and most practical path from each building room to the closest exit. The problem with this approach is that it is not adaptive. It is not responsively configurable relative to the type, intensity, or location of the emergency risk. Moreover, it does not provide any information to the affected persons or to the emergency responders while not allowing for the review of simulated hazard scenarios and alternative evacuation routes. In this paper we address two main tasks. The first is the modelling of the spatial risk caused by a hazardous event leading to choosing the optimal evacuation route for a set of options. The second is to generate a 3D visual representation of the model output. A multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach is used to model the risk aiming at finding the optimal evacuation route. This is achieved by using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) on the criteria describing the different alternative evacuation routes. The best route is then chosen to be the alternative with the least cost. The 3D visual representation of the model displays the building, the surrounding environment, the evacuee's location, the hazard location, the risk areas and the optimal evacuation pathway to the target safety location. The work has been performed using ESRI's ArcGIS. Using the developed models, the user can input the location of the hazard and the location of the evacuee. The system then determines the optimum evacuation route and displays it in 3D.

An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

The U.S. Air Force Aeromedical Evacuation Mission: A Mission for the Air Reserve Components

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

AU/ACSC/2016 AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY THE U.S. AIR FORCE AEROMEDICAL EVACUATION MISSION: A MISSION FOR THE AIR RESERVE...Aeromedical Evacuation ............................................................................................................. 7 The Current Problem...13 Evaluation

Evacuation transportation management : task five : operational concept.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-26

Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

Evacuation transportation management. Task five, Operational concept

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

A Comparison of the Nursing Home Evacuation Experience between Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Gustav (2008)

PubMed Central

Blanchard, Gary; Dosa, David

2009-01-01

Background One of the tragic legacies of Hurricane Katrina was the loss of life among Louisiana (LA) nursing home (NH) residents. Katrina revealed a staggering lack of emergency preparation and understanding of how to safely evacuate frail populations. Three years later, LA braced for Hurricane Gustav, a storm heralded to rival Katrina's power. Though its magnitude of destruction ultimately paled to Katrina, the warnings and predicted path preceding Gustav yielded a process of NH evacuations similar to Katrina. The goal of this paper was to ascertain whether NH administrative directors (ADs) felt more prepared to evacuate before Gustav. Methods In 2006, Dosa, et. al. (JAMDA, 3/07), interviewed 20 NH ADs by qualitative telephone survey to evaluate their lessons learned from Katrina. Administrators at these 20 participating nursing homes were contacted and asked to participate in a follow-up survey to compare hurricane preparedness between 2005 and 2008. Specifically, ADs were asked if they evacuated prior to Gustav, their destination, and about logistical issues with evacuation (e.g., transportation, injuries). ADs were asked to rate their confidence with state assistance, hurricane transportation, and evacuation preparedness on a 10-point scale (10=most confident) and compare their preparedness to Katrina. Results Sixteen of the 20 NHs that participated in 2006 agreed to be surveyed – 11 of whom held the same position before Katrina. Unlike Katrina, when only 45% evacuated prior to the storm, all 16 NHs evacuated before Gustav. (56% to another NH and 46% to a church, gym, college, or other facility). Overall, ADs rated their confidence in preparedness for Gustav as a mean of 8.3 (range 5 to 10) – compared with a mean of 5.4 (range 3 to 8) for Katrina, a 54% improvement. Of the 11 ADs employed pre-Katrina, 73% reported improved collaboration with the state and 55% noted improved transportation. Nevertheless, seven ADs noted significant logistical problems during evacuation (mostly transportation); four noted resident injuries (two hip fractures, one traumatic fall, and one cerebrovascular accident); and two noted resident post-traumatic stress. Conclusions NH ADs felt more prepared to evacuate their residents for Gustav, owing partly to improved communication and collaboration with state agencies; however, significant morbidity and logistical problems remain with evacuating frail NH residents before hurricanes. PMID:19883887

A comparison of the nursing home evacuation experience between hurricanes katrina (2005) and gustav (2008).

PubMed

Blanchard, Gary; Dosa, David

2009-11-01

One of the tragic legacies of Hurricane Katrina was the loss of life among Louisiana (LA) nursing home (NH) residents. Katrina revealed a staggering lack of emergency preparation and understanding of how to safely evacuate frail populations. Three years later, LA braced for Hurricane Gustav, a storm heralded to rival Katrina's power. Although its magnitude of destruction ultimately paled to Katrina, the warnings and predicted path preceding Gustav yielded a process of NH evacuations similar to Katrina. The goal of this article was to ascertain whether NH administrative directors (ADs) felt more prepared to evacuate before Gustav. In 2006, Dosa et al(5) (J Am Med Dir Assoc, 3/07), interviewed 20 NH ADs by qualitative telephone survey to evaluate their lessons learned from Katrina. Administrators at these 20 participating nursing homes were contacted and asked to participate in a follow-up survey to compare hurricane preparedness between 2005 and 2008. Specifically, ADs were asked if they evacuated before Gustav, their destination, and about logistical issues with evacuation (eg, transportation, injuries). ADs were asked to rate their confidence with state assistance, hurricane transportation, and evacuation preparedness on a 10-point scale (10=most confident) and compare their preparedness to Katrina. Sixteen of the 20 NHs that participated in 2006 agreed to be surveyed-11 of whom held the same position before Katrina. Unlike Katrina, when only 45% evacuated before the storm, all 16 NHs evacuated before Gustav (56% to another NH and 46% to a church, gym, college, or other facility). Overall, ADs rated their confidence in preparedness for Gustav as a mean of 8.3 (range 5 to 10) compared with a mean of 5.4 (range 3 to 8) for Katrina, a 54% improvement. Of the 11 ADs employed pre-Katrina, 73% reported improved collaboration with the state and 55% noted improved transportation. Nevertheless, 7 ADs noted significant logistical problems during evacuation (mostly transportation); 4 noted resident injuries (2 hip fractures, 1 traumatic fall, and 1 cerebrovascular accident); and 2 noted resident posttraumatic stress. NH ADs felt more prepared to evacuate their residents for Gustav, owing partly to improved communication and collaboration with state agencies; however, significant morbidity and logistical problems remain with evacuating frail NH residents before hurricanes.

Study of the ‘lifeline’ as the measure allowing for safe self-rescue of miners in conditions of lack of visibility caused by underground fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badura, Henryk; Grodzicka, Aneta; Musioł, Dariusz

2017-11-01

The article presents statistical data regarding the evacuation of miners affected by underground fire hazards. The data indicates that the hazard remains considerable. Due to the increasing lengths of escape routes, measures should be introduced in the longwall regions, which shall improve the safe evacuation of miners, especially in conditions of highly limited visibility or the lack thereof. Within the research project No. 12, entitled: ‘The development of orientation systems and systems for signalling the direction of crew withdrawal for escape routes in longwall gates’, which is a part of the Strategic Research Project entitled ‘The improvement of work safety in mines’ financed by the National Centre for Research and Development, a ‘lifeline’ was designed - that is, a measure that is very effective in the evacuation of staff. Subsequently, tests of time of passage were conducted in the ‘Krupiński’ coal mine in conditions of lack of visibility. The tests have confirmed the suitability of the ‘lifeline’ as the measure used for orientation towards the correct direction of evacuation, which increases the pace and the confidence while travelling through the escape route. The mean speed of passage through the heading with an upwards inclination of 11° was 22 m/min, while in case of a nearly horizontal longwall gate, it was 39 m/min.

Infectious diseases related aeromedical evacuation of French soldiers in a level 4 military treatment facility: a ten year retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Rapp, C; Aoun, O; Ficko, C; Andriamanantena, D; Flateau, C

2014-01-01

Infectious diseases are a frequent cause of morbidity in French troops deployed abroad. They are usually minor in severity and managed by field practitioners. We aimed to describe the etiological spectrum of travel-related infections in French soldiers evacuated to a level 4 military treatment facility. We evaluated the diagnoses of all service members who were medically evacuated from abroad to our infectious diseases department from January 1, 2004 to October 30, 2013. One hundred and twenty five cases, median age 32 years were referred, 117 (94%) were male and 78 (62%) were from the Army. Main areas of deployment were Africa in 80 cases (64%), Afghanistan in 15 cases (12%), and French Guiana in 10 cases (8%). Median time between initial consultation and hospitalization in the reference center was 5 days (IQ 2-7 d). Thirty (24%) immediate aeromedical evacuations were carried out. The top five diagnoses were Plasmodium falciparum malaria (30), fever of unknown origin (15), cerebro-meningeal infections (10), invasive amebiasis (9), and HIV primary infections (9). Thirteen individuals were admitted in ICU. No death was recorded. Infectious diseases were a rare of cause of medevac. Most of them were preventable. Lethal etiologies were represented by malaria and cerebro-meningeal infections. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling pedestrian evacuation by means of game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Dongmei; Zhang, Wenyao; Wang, Binghong

2017-04-01

Pedestrian evacuation is studied based on a modified lattice model. The payoff matrix in this model represents the complicated interactions between selfish individuals, and the mean force imposed on an individual is given by considering the impacts of neighbors, walls, and defector herding. Each passer-by moves to his selected location according to the Fermi function, and the average velocity of pedestrian flow is defined as a function of the motion rule. Two pedestrian types are included: cooperators, who adhere to the evacuation instructions; and defectors, who ignore the rules and act individually. It is observed that the escape time increases as fear degree increases, and the system remains smooth for a low fear degree, but exhibits three stages for a high fear degree. We prove that the fear degree determines the dynamics of this system, and the initial density of cooperators has a negligible impact. The system experiences three phases, a single phase of cooperator, a mixed two-phase pedestrian, and a single phase of defector sequentially as the fear degree upgrades. The phase transition has been proven basically robust to the changes of empty site contribution, wall’s pressure, and noise amplitude in the motion rule. It is further shown that pedestrians derive the greatest benefit from overall cooperation, but are trapped in the worst situation if they are all defectors. Dynamics of pedestrian evacuation.

Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

2013-01-01

scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

Suicide Rates in Evacuation Areas After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster.

PubMed

Orui, Masatsugu; Suzuki, Yuriko; Maeda, Masaharu; Yasumura, Seiji

2018-04-05

Associations between nuclear disasters and suicide have been examined to a limited extent. To clarify the suicide rates in evacuation areas after the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which occurred in March 2011. This descriptive study used monthly data from vital statistics between March 2009 and December 2015. Suicide rates in areas to which evacuation orders had been issued, requiring across-the-board, compulsory evacuation of residents from the entire or part of municipalities, were obtained and compared with the national average. Male suicide rates in evacuation areas increased significantly immediately after the disaster, and then began to increase again 4 years after the disaster. Female suicide rates declined slightly during the first year and then increased significantly over the subsequent 3-year period. Moreover, male rates in areas where evacuation orders were issued for the total area declined over the course of approximately 2 years, but then began to increase thereafter. Analysis by age revealed postdisaster male rates in evacuation areas decreased for those aged 50-69 years and increased for those aged ≤ 29 years and ≥ 70 years. The number of suicides among females and the female population in the evacuation area was small. Our findings suggest the need to keep in mind that, when providing post-disaster mental health services, suicide rates can eventually increase even if they initially decrease.

Hypobaric Hypoxia Exacerbates the Neuroinflammatory Response to Traumatic Brain Injury

PubMed Central

Goodman, Michael D.; Makley, Amy T.; Huber, Nathan L.; Clarke, Callisia N.; Friend, Lou Ann W.; Schuster, Rebecca M.; Bailey, Stephanie R.; Barnes, Stephen L.; Dorlac, Warren C.; Johannigman, Jay A.; Lentsch, Alex B.; Pritts, Timothy A.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine the inflammatory effects of time-dependent exposure to the hypobaric environment of simulated aeromedical evacuation following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods Mice were subjected to a blunt TBI or sham injury. Righting reflex response (RRR) time was assessed as an indicator of neurologic recovery. Three or 24 h (Early and Delayed groups, respectively) after TBI, mice were exposed to hypobaric flight conditions (Fly) or ground-level control (No Fly) for 5 h. Arterial blood gas samples were obtained from all groups during simulated flight. Serum and cortical brain samples were analyzed for inflammatory cytokines after flight. Neuron specific enolase (NSE) was measured as a serum biomarker of TBI severity. Results TBI resulted in prolonged RRR time compared with sham injury. After TBI alone, serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and keratinocyte-derived chemokine (KC) were increased by 6 h post-injury. Simulated flight significantly reduced arterial oxygen saturation levels in the Fly group. Post-injury altitude exposure increased cerebral levels of IL-6 and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α), as well as serum NSE in the Early but not Delayed Flight group compared to ground-level controls. Conclusions The hypobaric environment of aero-medical evacuation results in significant hypoxia. Early, but not delayed, exposure to a hypobaric environment following TBI increases the neuroinflammatory response to injury and the severity of secondary brain injury. Optimization of the post-injury time to fly using serum cytokine and biomarker levels may reduce the potential secondary cerebral injury induced by aeromedical evacuation. PMID:20850781

Emergency communications for evacuation (EVAC) in New Orleans impact assessment report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

This document constitutes the Impact Assessment Report for Emergency Communications for Evacuation (EVAC) in New Orleans. Response, Emergency Staging and Communications, Uniform Management, and Evacuation (R.E.S.C.U.M.E.) is a bundle of applications ...

Evacuation and rescue in automated guideway transit. Volume 1 : data collection, scenarios, and evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

Evacuation and rescue are significant problems in all transportation systems. Serious injuries and loss of life can result from situations in which inadequate means of evacuating and rescuing passengers exist. In conventional transportation systems, ...

Evacuation transportation management : task four: interview and survey results.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-26

Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

Using highways during evacuation operations for events with advance notice

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-12-01

This document constitutes the first of a primer series titled 'Routes to Effective Evacuation planning' and covers the use of the highway system during evacuation operations when advance planning is possible [...] This is a basic-level guide on condu...

Evacuation transportation management. Task four, Interview and survey results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

Much of what is known about evacuations is based on preparations for incidents, such as hurricanes, for which there is advance warning. With advance warning, evacuations can be planned and managed using procedures and systems that have been developed...

"Operation Workload" : a study of passenger energy expenditure during an emergency evacuation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-03-01

In an earlier study at the Civil Aeromedical Institute, workloads were determined for passengers during an emergency evacuation. The evacuation tests were conducted in an orderly manner and were suggested as representative of a moderate workload. The...

Audit of the effectiveness of command and control arrangements for medical evacuation of seriously ill or injured casualties in southern Afghanistan 2007.

PubMed

Cordell, R F; Cooney, M S; Beijer, D

2008-12-01

The effectiveness of the command and control of medical evacuation by helicopter (MEDEVAC) of casualties sustained in southern Afghanistan each month from 1 May to 31 July 2007 was audited. In this period 762 casualties of all categories were evacuated to International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) field hospital facilities under the direction of Operations and medical staff of NATO Regional Command (South) (RC-S). The criterion for the audit was the time taken from notification in the RC-S Combined Joint Operations Centre (CJOC) until the helicopter landed ("Wheels Down") at the destination field hospital's helicopter landing site. The standard to be met was 90 minutes for all "9-liner" Category A (URGENT) and Category B (URGENT - surgical) cases (in hospital within 2 hours of wounding) allowing for time from injury to first notification in the CJOC, and time from landing to transfer to the Emergency Department (30 minutes together) at the designated destination hospital. Those that did not meet this target were assessed in order to review their outcome and to identify means for improving performance. Analysis of evacuation times for all missions each month from May to July revealed that three quarters of A and B category missions met the 90 minute target. No adverse outcome resulted from those which did not meet this target, reasons for which included distance (more than 30 minutes flying time each way), delay in securing a hostile landing site, delay in obtaining sufficient information, incorrect categorization of the casualty's priority, and on one occasion, an overmatch of assets available at that time. No casualties died who were recoverable. Comparison with data from the two previous RC-S rotations (prior to 1 May 07) showed an improvement in mean response time, but little change in median response on the rotation of RC-S staff on 1 May 07. The major change that had occurred on this rotation was to move the medical operations staff into the CJOC. The convergence of median and mean at this time indicates a reduction in "outliers", providing evidence that collocation of medical and operations staff improves incident response and should be the "default setting" in deployed tactical formation headquarters. Regular audit of MEDEVAC response should be routine for Medical Operations staff, in order to ensure the optimal casualty care pathway from point of wounding to field hospital.

Reasons for medical evacuations of soldiers serving in International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Korzeniewski, Krzysztof; Gregulski, Robert

2014-01-01

The article presents the results of a research study into the reasons for medical evacuations of Polish military personnel taking part in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2013. The authors have analysed medical records of 485 soldiers who were medically evacuated out of a combat zone in Afghanistan for battle injuries, non-battle injuries and diseases. Each medically evacuated Polish soldier was subjected to statistical analysis. The study population comprised 25,974 soldiers assigned to the Polish Military Contingent Afghanistan in the given period. From 2007 to 2013, 1.9% of the Polish military personnel (n = 485) participating in the ISAF operation in Afghanistan were evacuated for medical reasons before the scheduled termination of their contract. 40.6% of all medical evacuations were due to battle injuries, 32.4% due to non-battle injuries, and 27.0% due to diseases. ISAF is an example of a combat operation, in which battle injuries remain the leading health problem in mission participants. 3 of 4 Polish soldiers who were medically evacuated from Afghanistan were no longer fit for military service in the area of operations due to the traumas they had suffered.

Fire Safety Training with Adults Who Are Profoundly Mentally Retarded.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rae, Rosamond; Roll, David

1985-01-01

An intensive fire safety training program for profoundly mentally retarded institutionalized persons resulted in a significant decrease in mean evacuation time and gradual substitution of verbal for physical prompts. (CL)

Passenger Rail Car Egress -- TRB Workshop

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

The Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) Office of Railroad Policy and Development is exploring how to enhance regulations that address the safe, timely, and effective emergency evacuation of occupants from passenger rail vehicles in various eme...

Controlling Hazardous Releases while Protecting Passengers in Civil Infrastructure Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimer, Sara P.; Katopodes, Nikolaos D.

2015-11-01

The threat of accidental or deliberate toxic chemicals released into public spaces is a significant concern to public safety, and the real-time detection and mitigation of such hazardous contaminants has the potential to minimize harm and save lives. Furthermore, the safe evacuation of occupants during such a catastrophe is of utmost importance. This research develops a comprehensive means to address such scenarios, through both the sensing and control of contaminants, and the modeling of and potential communication to occupants as they evacuate. A computational fluid dynamics model is developed of a simplified public space characterized by a long conduit (e.g. airport terminal) with unidirectional ambient flow that is capable of detecting and mitigating the hazardous contaminant (via boundary ports) over several time horizons using model predictive control optimization. Additionally, a physical prototype is built to test the real-time feasibility of this computational flow control model. The prototype is a blower wind-tunnel with an elongated test section with the capability of sensing (via digital camera) an injected `contaminant' (propylene glycol smoke), and then mitigating that contaminant using actuators (compressed air operated vacuum nozzles) which are operated by a set of pressure regulators and a programmable controller. Finally, an agent-based model is developed to simulate ``agents'' (i.e. building occupants) as they evacuate a public space, and is coupled with the computational flow control model such that agents must interact with a dynamic, threatening environment. NSF-CMMI #0856438.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 2: Application to Tangjiashan landslide dam failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : evaluation of freeway contraflow evacuation initiation and termination point configurations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-06-01

Over the last five years, the departments of transportation in 12 coastal states threatened by hurricanes have developed plans for the implementation of contraflow traffic operations on freeways during evacuations. Contraflow involves the use of one ...

A review of computer evacuation models and their data needs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-05-01

This document reviews the history and current status of computer models of the evacuation of an airliner cabin. Basic concepts upon which evacuation models are based are discussed, followed by a review of the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute s effor...

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : evaluation of freeway contraflow evacuation initiation and termination point configurations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

Over the last 5 years, the Departments of Transportation in 12 coastal states threatened by hurricanes have developed plans for the implementation of contraflow traffic operations on freeways during evacuations. Contraflow involves the use of one or ...

KAMEDO Report No. 92: Evacuation of Swedes from Lebanon--observational studies in connection with the war in Lebanon in summer 2006.

PubMed

Kulling, Per; Sigurdsson, Susannah; Hamberger, Bertil

2008-01-01

A large-scale armed conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in July 2006 caused the evacuation of a large number of Swedish residents from Lebanon. This report describes the evacuation throughout its various stages. Swedish authorities were prepared for an event of this type from the experience of the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. Lessons learned from the management and medical care during the evacuations are presented in this report.

Minimally invasive evacuation of parenchymal and ventricular hemorrhage using the Apollo system with simultaneous neuronavigation, neuroendoscopy and active monitoring with cone beam CT.

PubMed

Fiorella, David; Gutman, Fredrick; Woo, Henry; Arthur, Adam; Aranguren, Ricardo; Davis, Raphael

2015-10-01

The Apollo system is a low profile irrigation-aspiration system which can be used for the evacuation of intracranial hemorrhage. We demonstrate the feasibility of using Apollo to evacuate intracranial hemorrhage in a series of three patients with combined neuronavigation, neuroendoscopy, and cone beam CT (CB-CT). Access to the hematoma was planned using neuronavigation software. Parietal (n=2) or frontal (1) burr holes were created and a 19 F endoscopic sheath was placed under neuronavigation guidance into the distal aspect of the hematoma along its longest accessible axis. The 2.6 mm Apollo wand was then directed through the working channel of a neuroendoscope and used to aspirate the blood products under direct visualization, working from distal to proximal. After a pass through the hematoma, the sheath, neuroendoscope, and Apollo system were removed. CB-CT was then used to evaluate for residual hematoma. When required, the CB-CT data could then be directly uploaded into the neuronavigation system and a new trajectory planned to approach the residual hematoma. Three patients with parenchymal (n=2) and mixed parenchymal-intraventricular (n=1) hematomas underwent minimally invasive evacuation with the Apollo system. The isolated parenchymal hematomas measured 93.4 and 15.6 mL and were reduced to 11.2 (two passes) and 0.9 mL (single pass), respectively. The entire parenchymal component of the mixed hemorrhage was evacuated, as was the intraventricular component within the right frontal horn (single pass). No complications were experienced. All patients showed clinical improvement after the procedure. The average presenting National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was 19.0, which had improved to 5.7 within an average of 4.7 days after the procedure. The Apollo system can be used within the neuroangiography suite for the minimally invasive evacuation of intracranial hemorrhage using simultaneous neuronavigation for planning and intraprocedural guidance, direct visualization with neuroendoscopy, and real time monitoring of progress with CB-CT. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Anal gas evacuation and colonic microbiota in patients with flatulence: effect of diet.

PubMed

Manichanh, Chaysavanh; Eck, Anat; Varela, Encarna; Roca, Joaquim; Clemente, José C; González, Antonio; Knights, Dan; Knight, Rob; Estrella, Sandra; Hernandez, Carlos; Guyonnet, Denis; Accarino, Anna; Santos, Javier; Malagelada, Juan-R; Guarner, Francisco; Azpiroz, Fernando

2014-03-01

To characterise the influence of diet on abdominal symptoms, anal gas evacuation, intestinal gas distribution and colonic microbiota in patients complaining of flatulence. Patients complaining of flatulence (n=30) and healthy subjects (n=20) were instructed to follow their usual diet for 3 days (basal phase) and to consume a high-flatulogenic diet for another 3 days (challenge phase). During basal phase, patients recorded more abdominal symptoms than healthy subjects in daily questionnaires (5.8±0.3 vs 0.4±0.2 mean discomfort/pain score, respectively; p=<0.0001) and more gas evacuations by an event marker (21.9±2.8 vs 7.4±1.0 daytime evacuations, respectively; p=0.0001), without differences in the volume of gas evacuated after a standard meal (262±22 and 265±25 mL, respectively). On flatulogenic diet, both groups recorded more abdominal symptoms (7.9±0.3 and 2.8±0.4 discomfort/pain, respectively), number of gas evacuations (44.4±5.3 and 21.7±2.9 daytime evacuations, respectively) and had more gas production (656±52 and 673±78 mL, respectively; p<0.05 vs basal diet for all). When challenged with flatulogenic diet, patients' microbiota developed instability in composition, exhibiting variations in the main phyla and reduction of microbial diversity, whereas healthy subjects' microbiota were stable. Taxa from Bacteroides fragilis or Bilophila wadsworthia correlated with number of gas evacuations or volume of gas evacuated, respectively. Patients complaining of flatulence have a poor tolerance of intestinal gas, which is associated with instability of the microbial ecosystem.

Developing Tsunami Evacuation Plans, Maps, And Procedures: Pilot Project in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcos, N. P.; Kong, L. S. L.; Arcas, D.; Aliaga, B.; Coetzee, D.; Leonard, J.

2015-12-01

In the End-to-End tsunami warning chain, once a forecast is provided and a warning alert issued, communities must know what to do and where to go. The 'where to' answer would be reliable and practical community-level tsunami evacuation maps. Following the Exercise Pacific Wave 2011, a questionnaire was sent to the 46 Member States of Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS). The results revealed over 42 percent of Member States lacked tsunami mass coastal evacuation plans. Additionally, a significant gap in mapping was exposed as over 55 percent of Member States lacked tsunami evacuation maps, routes, signs and assembly points. Thereby, a significant portion of countries in the Pacific lack appropriate tsunami planning and mapping for their at-risk coastal communities. While a variety of tools exist to establish tsunami inundation areas, these are inconsistent while a methodology has not been developed to assist countries develop tsunami evacuation maps, plans, and procedures. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) and partners is leading a Pilot Project in Honduras demonstrating that globally standardized tools and methodologies can be applied by a country, with minimal tsunami warning and mitigation resources, towards the determination of tsunami inundation areas and subsequently community-owned tsunami evacuation maps and plans for at-risk communities. The Pilot involves a 1- to 2-year long process centered on a series of linked tsunami training workshops on: evacuation planning, evacuation map development, inundation modeling and map creation, tsunami warning & emergency response Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and conducting tsunami exercises (including evacuation). The Pilot's completion is capped with a UNESCO/IOC document so that other countries can replicate the process in their tsunami-prone communities.

Learning by teaching: undergraduate engineering students improving a community's response capability to an early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community in the event of a landslide. Participants were four undergraduate students in a civil engineering programme at a university in Thailand, as well as nine community members and three external evaluators. Results illustrate project and problem-based, experiential learning and highlight the real-world applications and development of knowledge and of hard and soft skills. The discussion raises issues of scalability and feasibility for implementation of these types of projects in large undergraduate engineering classes.

Variations in disaster evacuation behavior: public responses versus private sector executive decision-making processes.

PubMed

Drabek, T E

1992-06-01

Data obtained from 65 executives working for tourism firms in three sample communities permitted comparison with the public warning response literature regarding three topics: disaster evacuation planning, initial warning responses, and disaster evacuation behavior. Disaster evacuation planning was reported by nearly all of these business executives, although it was highly variable in content, completeness, and formality. Managerial responses to post-disaster warnings paralleled the type of complex social processes that have been documented within the public response literature, except that warning sources and confirmation behavior were significantly affected by contact with authorities. Five key areas of difference were discovered in disaster evacuation behavior pertaining to: influence of planning, firm versus family priorities, shelter selection, looting concerns, and media contacts.

Emergency evacuation study for the Greater Jackson Area : evacuation traffic from New Orleans.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-05-21

In response to both natural and man-made disasters, more and more emergency evacuation plans have been put : forward and consistently aims to move a large disaster affected population through a highway network towards safer : areas as quickly and eff...

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami.

PubMed

Apatu, Emma J I; Gregg, Chris E; Wood, Nathan J; Wang, Liang

2016-10-01

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Pedestrian evacuation at the subway station under fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao-Xia, Yang; Hai-Rong, Dong; Xiu-Ming, Yao; Xu-Bin, Sun

2016-04-01

With the development of urban rail transit, ensuring the safe evacuation of pedestrians at subway stations has become an important issue in the case of an emergency such as a fire. This paper chooses the platform of line 4 at the Beijing Xuanwumen subway station to study the emergency evacuation process under fire. Based on the established platform, effects of the fire dynamics, different initial pedestrian densities, and positions of fire on evacuation are investigated. According to simulation results, it is found that the fire increases the air temperature and the smoke density, and decreases pedestrians’ visibility and walking velocity. Also, there is a critical initial density at the platform if achieving a safe evacuation within the required 6 minutes. Furthermore, different positions of fire set in this paper have little difference on crowd evacuation if the fire is not large enough. The suggestions provided in this paper are helpful for the subway operators to prevent major casualties. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61322307 and 61233001).

Operation Pied Piper: a geographical reappraisal of the impact of wartime evacuation on scarlet fever and diphtheria rates in England and Wales, 1939-1945.

PubMed

Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

2015-10-01

This paper examines the geographical impact of the British Government's wartime evacuation scheme on notified rates of two common acute childhood diseases (scarlet fever and diphtheria) in the 1470 local government districts of England and Wales, 1939-1945. Drawing on the notifications of communicable diseases collated by the General Register Office (GRO), we establish pre-war (baseline) disease rates for the 1470 districts. For the war years, techniques of binary logistic regression analysis are used to assess the associations between (a) above-baseline ('raised') disease rates in evacuation, neutral and reception districts and (b) the major phases of the evacuation scheme. The analysis demonstrates that the evacuation was temporally associated with distinct national and regional effects on notified levels of disease activity. These effects were most pronounced in the early years of the dispersal (1939-1941) and corresponded with initial levels of evacuation-related population change at the regional and district scales.

A fuzzy-theory-based behavioral model for studying pedestrian evacuation from a single-exit room

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Libi; Song, Weiguo; Lo, Siuming

2016-08-01

Many mass events in recent years have highlighted the importance of research on pedestrian evacuation dynamics. A number of models have been developed to analyze crowd behavior under evacuation situations. However, few focus on pedestrians' decision-making with respect to uncertainty, vagueness and imprecision. In this paper, a discrete evacuation model defined on the cellular space is proposed according to the fuzzy theory which is able to describe imprecise and subjective information. Pedestrians' percept information and various characteristics are regarded as fuzzy input. Then fuzzy inference systems with rule bases, which resemble human reasoning, are established to obtain fuzzy output that decides pedestrians' movement direction. This model is tested in two scenarios, namely in a single-exit room with and without obstacles. Simulation results reproduce some classic dynamics phenomena discovered in real building evacuation situations, and are consistent with those in other models and experiments. It is hoped that this study will enrich movement rules and approaches in traditional cellular automaton models for evacuation dynamics.

Visitors’ awareness of the tsunami evacuation plan in Pasar Raya Padang, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemal, B. M.; Yosritzal; Purnawan; Putra, H.

2018-04-01

This paper presents an investigation into the visitors’ awareness of the tsunami evacuation plan at Pasar Raya Padang, a traditional market at the central business district of Padang City, Indonesia. This study has been motivated by the fact that Pasar Raya Padang is the largest traditional market in West Sumatera and visited by many visitors from various origins. Pasar Raya Padang is chosen because it is located at a tsunami prone area, but local government managed to keep businesses in the area running and attract visitors. The awareness of the people in the market would be crucial to increase the possibility to safe their life during an evacuation. As much as 500 respondents were interviewed during daytime in the market. The study found that most of the visitors are not aware of the tsunami evacuation plan in the area. Local government is suggested to develop standard procedure for the evacuation, to place more sign and make it more visible for most of the visitors and do evacuation simulations periodically.

Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.

2012-04-01

Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios. Results are presented in terms of thematic maps and GIS layers highlighting information on inundation depths and limits, evacuation plans and safe shelters, tsunami vulnerability, evacuation times and tsunami risk levels. Results can be used for national and regional tsunami disaster management and planning. This work is funded by TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises) FP7, EU project and by MAREMOTI (Mareograph and field tsunami observations, modeling and vulnerability studies for Northeast Atlantic and western Mediterranean) French project. Keywords: Tsunami, Algarve-Portugal, Evacuation, Vulnerability, Risk

Information Needs While A Disaster Is Occurring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, S. C.

2010-12-01

Evidence from recent earthquakes, wildfires, and debris flows in southern California indicates that many people - local officials as well as residents and visitors - lack important understanding during the time that a disaster is unfolding, a time of uncertainty and confusion. While some of the uncertainty is inherent, some could be alleviated. Physical scientists and engineers know what to expect as the event unfolds. Social scientists know how humans will react during a disaster, and how to effectively communicate the warnings or evacuation orders that may precede it. Such knowledge can improve public safety. As just a few of many examples: - Based on questions posed at numerous public talks, many individuals who practice "Drop Cover and Hold" during earthquake drills do not understand what they are protecting themselves against, and thus cannot determine what to do when an earthquake strikes and they have no cover available. Similarly, they do not know how to act during the aftershocks that follow. - The 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains put foothills communities at risk, first from the wildfire and then from debris flows. Some neighborhoods received multiple evacuation notices during a few days or months. Local officials have expressed frustration and concern about an evacuation compliance rate that is steadily dropping and is now below 50%. The debris flow danger will persist over the next 2-4 winters yet evacuation compliance may drop lower still. - On February 6, 2010, a significant rainstorm brought the threat of imminent debris flows to areas burned by the Station Fire. In one neighborhood, residents loaded their cars with important belongings then waited for indications that they should evacuate. Powerful debris flows suddenly appeared, sweeping the cars downhill and destroying both cars and belongings. Some residents did understand that rainfall intensity would control the generation of debris flows in that storm. But they didn't understand that rainfall intensity at their homes might be less than the intensity up in the mountains where the debris flows would start. Nor did they know that debris flows travel too quickly to be outrun. These and many other examples indicate need for social and natural scientists to increase awareness of what to expect when the disaster strikes. This information must be solidly understood before the event occurs - while a disaster is unfolding there are no teachable moments. Case studies indicate that even those who come into a disaster well educated about the phenomenon can struggle to apply what they know when the real situation is at hand. In addition, psychological studies confirm diminished ability to comprehend information at times of stress.

78 FR 40488 - Availability of Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Proposed Construction of a Highway...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-05

... operating conditions for vehicular and pedestrian traffic; Improve capacity of the local roadway network; Improve local mobility; reduce congestion; improve emergency response times; and Improve evacuation...

46 CFR 108.545 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 108.545 Section 108.545 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Lifesaving Equipment § 108.545 Marine evacuation system launching...

46 CFR 108.545 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 108.545 Section 108.545 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Lifesaving Equipment § 108.545 Marine evacuation system launching...

46 CFR 108.545 - Marine evacuation system launching arrangements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Marine evacuation system launching arrangements. 108.545 Section 108.545 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Lifesaving Equipment § 108.545 Marine evacuation system launching...

Crime in post-Katrina Houston: the effects of moral panic on emergency planning.

PubMed

Settles, Tanya; Lindsay, Bruce R

2011-01-01

This study used a mixed methods approach to estimate whether a moral panic occurred after Hurricane Katrina forced the evacuations of more than 250,000 people to Houston, Texas. The study viewed data from the Houston Police Department combined with a qualitative review of references of criminal activity in local print media. In total, over 8,500 lines of text were analysed to discern themes associated with media representations of the influence of evacuees on the city of Houston. There was little evidence of statistically significant increases in crime over the months following the evacuations. There was, however, evidence that evacuees, principally from New Orleans, were blamed for perceived increases in violent crime and lawlessness. There are also significant policy implications for state, local and federal governments. In particular, the policies of the Federal Emergency Management Agency were blamed for at least some of the perceived crime attributed to Katrina evacuees. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Low-cost evacuated-tube solar collector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1981-02-01

A prototype design for an evacuated tube air cooled solar collector module was completed. A product cost study, based on the production of 60,000 of the prototype modules per year (approx. 1,000,000 square feet annually), estimates that the module as shipped would have a cost at inventory of $7.09 to $7.40 per square foot of aperture. Computer programs were developed to predict the optical and thermal performane of the module. Antireflective coatings (porous aluminum oxide) formed by spraying or dipping were demonstrated but degraded more rapidly when exposed to a high humidity ambient acid etched films. A selective black chromium oxide multi-layered graded film was vapor deposited which had an absorptivity of about 0.9 and an emissivity of 0.03. When the film was heated to temperatures of 4000 C in a gettered vacuum for as little as 24 hours, however, irreversible changes took place both between and within coating layers which resulted in alpha decreasing to about 0.73 and epsilon increasing to 0.14.

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards for the 2009 La Brea, Jesusita, Guiberson, Morris, Sheep, Oak Glen, Pendleton, and Cottonwood fires in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2010-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 La Brea and Jesusita fires in Santa Barbara County, the Guiberson fire in Ventura County, the Morris fire in Los Angeles County, the Sheep, Oak Glen, and Pendleton fires in San Bernardino County, and the Cottonwood fire in Riverside County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed to analyze postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flows produced from drainage basins within each of the burned areas. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 2-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a widespread, 12-hour-duration, 2-year-recurrence winter storm. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire.

33 CFR 150.506 - When must the operator service inflatable lifesaving appliances and marine evacuation systems?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... inflatable lifesaving appliances and marine evacuation systems? 150.506 Section 150.506 Navigation and...: OPERATIONS Emergency and Specialty Equipment Inflatable Lifesaving Appliances § 150.506 When must the operator service inflatable lifesaving appliances and marine evacuation systems? (a) The operator must...

21 CFR 882.5850 - Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation. 882.5850 Section 882.5850 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND....5850 Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation. (a) Identification. An implanted spinal...

21 CFR 882.5850 - Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation. 882.5850 Section 882.5850 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND....5850 Implanted spinal cord stimulator for bladder evacuation. (a) Identification. An implanted spinal...

28 CFR 0.154 - Advance and evacuation payments and special allowances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Advance and evacuation payments and... Advance and evacuation payments and special allowances. The Director of the Federal Bureau of... Marshals Service, and the Director of the Office of Justice Assistance, Research and Statistics, as to...

75 FR 79034 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Escape and Evacuation Plans (Pertains to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-17

... Extension of Existing Information Collection; Escape and Evacuation Plans (Pertains to Underground Metal and... and evacuation plan specifically addressing the unique conditions of each underground metal and... fans, primary fan controls, fire doors, ventilation doors, and refuge chambers; (2) Procedures to show...

Game-Based Evacuation Drill Using Augmented Reality and Head-Mounted Display

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kawai, Junya; Mitsuhara, Hiroyuki; Shishibori, Masami

2016-01-01

Purpose: Evacuation drills should be more realistic and interactive. Focusing on situational and audio-visual realities and scenario-based interactivity, the authors have developed a game-based evacuation drill (GBED) system that presents augmented reality (AR) materials on tablet computers. The paper's current research purpose is to improve…

14 CFR 125.189 - Demonstration of emergency evacuation procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... the emergency evacuation procedures for each type and model of airplane with a seating of more than 44... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Demonstration of emergency evacuation procedures. 125.189 Section 125.189 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF...