Program management model study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connelly, J. J.; Russell, J. E.; Seline, J. R.; Sumner, N. R., Jr.

1972-01-01

Two models, a system performance model and a program assessment model, have been developed to assist NASA management in the evaluation of development alternatives for the Earth Observations Program. Two computer models were developed and demonstrated on the Goddard Space Flight Center Computer Facility. Procedures have been outlined to guide the user of the models through specific evaluation processes, and the preparation of inputs describing earth observation needs and earth observation technology. These models are intended to assist NASA in increasing the effectiveness of the overall Earth Observation Program by providing a broader view of system and program development alternatives.

Computer-Aided Group Problem Solving for Unified Life Cycle Engineering (ULCE)

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

defining the problem, generating alternative solutions, evaluating alternatives, selecting alternatives, and implementing the solution. Systems...specialist in group dynamics, assists the group in formulating the problem and selecting a model framework. The analyst provides the group with computer...allocating resources, evaluating and selecting options, making judgments explicit, and analyzing dynamic systems. c. University of Rhode Island Drs. Geoffery

Alternative Loglinear Smoothing Models and Their Effect on Equating Function Accuracy. Research Report. ETS RR-09-48

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim; Holland, Paul

2009-01-01

This simulation study evaluated the potential of alternative loglinear smoothing strategies for improving equipercentile equating function accuracy. These alternative strategies use cues from the sample data to make automatable and efficient improvements to model fit, either through the use of indicator functions for fitting large residuals or by…

A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-trail Demand

Treesearch

Carter J. Betz; John C. Bergstrom; J. Michael Bowker

2003-01-01

The authors develop a contingent trip model to estimate the recreation demand for and value of a potential rail-trail site in north-east Georgia. The contingent trip model is an alternative to travel cost modelling useful for ex ante evaluation of proposed recreation resources or management alternatives. The authors estimate the empirical demand for trips using a...

The hydrologic implications of alternative prioritizations of landscape-scale geographically isolated wetlands conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; Mclaughlin, D. L.; D'Amico, E.

2016-12-01

Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), defined as upland embedded wetlands, provide an array of ecosystem goods and services. Wetland conservation efforts aim to protect GIWs in the face of continued threats from anthropogenic activities. Given limited conservation resources, there is a critical need for methods capable of evaluating the watershed-scale hydrologic implications of alternative approaches to GIW conservation. Further, there is a need for methods that quantify the watershed-scale aggregate effects of GIWs to determine their regulatory status within the United States. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a popular watershed-scale hydrologic model, to represent the 1,700 km2 Pipestem Creek watershed in North Dakota, USA. We modified the model to incorporate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes via hydrologic response unit (HRU) redefinition and modifications to the model source code. We then used the model to evaluate the hydrologic effects of alternative approaches to GIW conservation prioritization by simulating the destruction/removal of GIWs by sub-classes defined by their relative position within the simulated fill-spill GIW network and their surface area characteristics. We evaluated the alternative conservation approaches as impacting (1) simulated streamflow at the Pipestem Creek watershed outlet; (2) simulated water-levels within the GIWs; and (3) simulated hydrologic connections between the GIWs. Our approach to modifying SWAT and evaluating alternative GIW conservation strategies may be replicated in different watersheds and physiographic regions to aid the development of GIW conservation priorities.

Optimal Elevation and Configuration of Hanford's Double-Shell Tank Waste Mixer Pumps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onishi, Yasuo; Yokuda, Satoru T.; Majumder, Catherine A.

The objective of this study was to compare the mixing performance of the Lawrence pump, which has injection nozzles at the top, with an alternative pump that has injection nozzles at the bottom, and to determine the optimal elevation for the alternative pump. Sixteen cases were evaluated: two sludge thicknesses at eight levels. A two-step evaluation approach was used: Step 1 to evaluate all 16 cases with the non-rotating mixer pump model and Step 2 to further evaluate four of those cases with the more realistic rotating mixer pump model. The TEMPEST code was used.

Assessment of phototoxicity, skin irritation, and sensitization potential of polystyrene and TiO2 nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yoon-Hee; Jeong, Sang Hoon; Yi, Sang Min; Hyeok Choi, Byeong; Kim, Yu-Ri; Kim, In-Kyoung; Kim, Meyoung-Kon; Son, Sang Wook

2011-07-01

The human skin equivalent model (HSEM) is well known as an attractive alternative model for evaluation of dermal toxicity. However, only limited data are available on the usefulness of an HSEM for nanotoxicity testing. This study was designed to investigate cutaneous toxicity of polystyrene and TiO2 nanoparticles using cultured keratinocytes, an HSEM, and an animal model. In addition, we also evaluated the skin sensitization potential of nanoparticles using a local lymph node assay with incorporation of BrdU. Findings from the present study indicate that polystyrene and TiO2 nanoparticles do not induce phototoxicity, acute cutaneous irritation, or skin sensitization. Results from evaluation of the HSEMs correspond well with those from animal models. Our findings suggest that the HSEM might be a useful alternative model for evaluation of dermal nanotoxicity.

An Experimental Database for Conventional and Alternate Control Concepts on the HSR 1.675% Reference H Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillin, Naomi; Allen, Jerry; Erickson, Gary; Campbell, Jim; Mann, Mike; Kubiatko, Paul; Yingling, David; Mason, Charlie

1999-01-01

The objective was to experimentally evaluate the longitudinal and lateral-directional stability and control characteristics of the Reference H configuration at supersonic and transonic speeds. A series of conventional and alternate control devices were also evaluated at supersonic and transonic speeds. A database on the conventional and alternate control devices was to be created for use in the HSR program.

A Model for Evaluating Development Programs. Miscellaneous Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burton, John E., Jr.; Rogers, David L.

Taking the position that the Classical Experimental Evaluation (CEE) Model does not do justice to the process of acquiring information necessary for decision making re planning, programming, implementing, and recycling program activities, this paper presents the Inductive, System-Process (ISP) evaluation model as an alternative to be used in…

An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Dawal, Siti Zawiah Md; Nukman, Yusoff; Rifai, Achmad P; Aoyama, Hideki

2016-01-01

The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts' uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs.

An Integrated MCDM Model for Conveyor Equipment Evaluation and Selection in an FMC Based on a Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ARAS in the Presence of Vagueness

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Huu-Tho; Md Dawal, Siti Zawiah; Nukman, Yusoff; P. Rifai, Achmad; Aoyama, Hideki

2016-01-01

The conveyor system plays a vital role in improving the performance of flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). The conveyor selection problem involves the evaluation of a set of potential alternatives based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. This paper presents an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model of a fuzzy AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and fuzzy ARAS (additive ratio assessment) for conveyor evaluation and selection. In this model, linguistic terms represented as triangular fuzzy numbers are used to quantify experts’ uncertain assessments of alternatives with respect to the criteria. The fuzzy set is then integrated into the AHP to determine the weights of the criteria. Finally, a fuzzy ARAS is used to calculate the weights of the alternatives. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case study is performed of a practical example, and the results obtained demonstrate practical potential for the implementation of FMCs. PMID:27070543

Evaluation of origin-destination matrix estimation techniques to support aspects of traffic modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Travel demand forecasting models are used to predict future traffic volumes to evaluate : roadway improvement alternatives. Each of the metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) in : Alabama maintains a travel demand model to support planning efforts...

The Local Minima Problem in Hierarchical Classes Analysis: An Evaluation of a Simulated Annealing Algorithm and Various Multistart Procedures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ceulemans, Eva; Van Mechelen, Iven; Leenen, Iwin

2007-01-01

Hierarchical classes models are quasi-order retaining Boolean decomposition models for N-way N-mode binary data. To fit these models to data, rationally started alternating least squares (or, equivalently, alternating least absolute deviations) algorithms have been proposed. Extensive simulation studies showed that these algorithms succeed quite…

Multi-criteria evaluation of wastewater treatment plant control strategies under uncertainty.

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Rodríguez-Roda, Ignasi; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2008-11-01

The evaluation of activated sludge control strategies in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) via mathematical modelling is a complex activity because several objectives; e.g. economic, environmental, technical and legal; must be taken into account at the same time, i.e. the evaluation of the alternatives is a multi-criteria problem. Activated sludge models are not well characterized and some of the parameters can present uncertainty, e.g. the influent fractions arriving to the facility and the effect of either temperature or toxic compounds on the kinetic parameters, having a strong influence in the model predictions used during the evaluation of the alternatives and affecting the resulting rank of preferences. Using a simplified version of the IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 as a case study, this article shows the variations in the decision making when the uncertainty in activated sludge model (ASM) parameters is either included or not during the evaluation of WWTP control strategies. This paper comprises two main sections. Firstly, there is the evaluation of six WWTP control strategies using multi-criteria decision analysis setting the ASM parameters at their default value. In the following section, the uncertainty is introduced, i.e. input uncertainty, which is characterized by probability distribution functions based on the available process knowledge. Next, Monte Carlo simulations are run to propagate input through the model and affect the different outcomes. Thus (i) the variation in the overall degree of satisfaction of the control objectives for the generated WWTP control strategies is quantified, (ii) the contributions of environmental, legal, technical and economic objectives to the existing variance are identified and finally (iii) the influence of the relative importance of the control objectives during the selection of alternatives is analyzed. The results show that the control strategies with an external carbon source reduce the output uncertainty in the criteria used to quantify the degree of satisfaction of environmental, technical and legal objectives, but increasing the economical costs and their variability as a trade-off. Also, it is shown how a preliminary selected alternative with cascade ammonium controller becomes less desirable when input uncertainty is included, having simpler alternatives more chance of success.

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Ascough, J.C.; Liu, J.; Luckai, N.; Mailly, D.; Archambault, L.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2011-01-01

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

Estimation of the upper bound of predictive performance for alternative models that use in vivo reference data (OpenTox USA 2017)

EPA Science Inventory

The number of chemicals with limited toxicological information for chemical safety decision-making has accelerated alternative model development, which often are evaluated via referencing animal toxicology studies. In vivo studies are generally considered the standard for hazard ...

20180311 - Variability of LD50 Values from Rat Oral Acute Toxicity Studies: Implications for Alternative Model Development (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Alternative models developed for estimating acute systemic toxicity are generally evaluated using in vivo LD50 values. However, in vivo acute systemic toxicity studies can produce variable results, even when conducted according to accepted test guidelines. This variability can ma...

Variability of LD50 Values from Rat Oral Acute Toxicity Studies: Implications for Alternative Model Development

EPA Science Inventory

Alternative models developed for estimating acute systemic toxicity are generally evaluated using in vivo LD50 values. However, in vivo acute systemic toxicity studies can produce variable results, even when conducted according to accepted test guidelines. This variability can ma...

Adult Human Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes: An Alternative Model for Evaluating Chemical and Environmental Pollutant Cardiotoxicity

EPA Science Inventory

Heart disease is increasing globally with a significant percentage of the increase being attributed to chemical and pollution exposures. Currently, no alternative or in vitro testing models exist to rapidly and accurately determine the cardiac effects of chemicals and/or pollutan...

High-Throughput Predictive Approaches to Evaluating Chemicals in Food Contact Materials: Migration, Exposure, and Alternatives Identification

EPA Science Inventory

This is a presentation describing CSS research on HT predictive methods to modeling exposure and predicting functional substitutes. It will be presented at a forum co-sponsored by the State of California and UC Berekeley on evaluation of chemical alternatives for food contact ch...

Risk in fire management decisionmaking: techniques and criteria

Treesearch

Gail Blatternberger; William F. Hyde; Thomas J. Mills

1984-01-01

In the past, decisionmaking in wildland fire management generally has not included a full consideration of the risk and uncertainty that is inherent in evaluating alternatives. Fire management policies in some Federal land management agencies now require risk evaluation. The model for estimating the economic efficiency of fire program alternatives is the minimization...

The comparative evaluation of expanded national immunization policies in Korea using an analytic hierarchy process.

PubMed

Shin, Taeksoo; Kim, Chun-Bae; Ahn, Yang-Heui; Kim, Hyo-Youl; Cha, Byung Ho; Uh, Young; Lee, Joo-Heon; Hyun, Sook-Jung; Lee, Dong-Han; Go, Un-Yeong

2009-01-29

The purpose of this paper is to propose new evaluation criteria and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model to assess the expanded national immunization programs (ENIPs) and to evaluate two alternative health care policies. One of the alternative policies is that private clinics and hospitals would offer free vaccination services to children and the other of them is that public health centers would offer these free vaccination services. Our model to evaluate the ENIPs was developed using brainstorming, Delphi techniques, and the AHP model. We first used the brainstorming and Delphi techniques, as well as literature reviews, to determine 25 criteria with which to evaluate the national immunization policy; we then proposed a hierarchical structure of the AHP model to assess ENIPs. By applying the proposed AHP model to the assessment of ENIPs for Korean immunization policies, we show that free vaccination services should be provided by private clinics and hospitals rather than public health centers.

Development of a Dynamic, End-to-End Free Piston Stirling Convertor Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Gerber, Scott S.; Roth, Mary Ellen

2004-01-01

A dynamic model for a free-piston Stirling convertor is being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The model is an end-to-end system model that includes the cycle thermodynamics, the dynamics, and electrical aspects of the system. The subsystems of interest are the heat source, the springs, the moving masses, the linear alternator, the controller, and the end-user load. The envisioned use of the model will be in evaluating how changes in a subsystem could affect the operation of the convertor. The model under development will speed the evaluation of improvements to a subsystem and aid in determining areas in which most significant improvements may be found. One of the first uses of the end-toend model will be in the development of controller architectures. Another related area is in evaluating changes to details in the linear alternator.

Development of a Dynamic, End-to-End Free Piston Stirling Convertor Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regan, Timothy F.; Gerber, Scott S.; Roth, Mary Ellen

2003-01-01

A dynamic model for a free-piston Stirling convertor is being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The model is an end-to-end system model that includes the cycle thermodynamics, the dynamics, and electrical aspects of the system. The subsystems of interest are the heat source, the springs, the moving masses, the linear alternator, the controller and the end-user load. The envisioned use of the model will be in evaluating how changes in a subsystem could affect the operation of the convertor. The model under development will speed the evaluation of improvements to a subsystem and aid in determining areas in which most significant improvements may be found. One of the first uses of the end-to-end model will be in the development of controller architectures. Another related area is in evaluating changes to details in the linear alternator.

An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

2014-03-01

This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extracting the Evaluations of Stereotypes: Bi-factor Model of the Stereotype Content Structure

PubMed Central

Sayans-Jiménez, Pablo; Cuadrado, Isabel; Rojas, Antonio J.; Barrada, Juan R.

2017-01-01

Stereotype dimensions—competence, morality and sociability—are fundamental to studying the perception of other groups. These dimensions have shown moderate/high positive correlations with each other that do not reflect the theoretical expectations. The explanation for this (e.g., halo effect) undervalues the utility of the shared variance identified. In contrast, in this work we propose that this common variance could represent the global evaluation of the perceived group. Bi-factor models are proposed to improve the internal structure and to take advantage of the information representing the shared variance among dimensions. Bi-factor models were compared with first order models and other alternative models in three large samples (300–309 participants). The relationships among the global and specific bi-factor dimensions with a global evaluation dimension (measured through a semantic differential) were estimated. The results support the use of bi-factor models rather than first order models (and other alternative models). Bi-factor models also show a greater utility to directly and more easily explore the stereotype content including its evaluative content. PMID:29085313

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comstock, Douglas A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segments for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented.

Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

Treesearch

David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives (P-53)

Treesearch

David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

Model fit evaluation in multilevel structural equation models

PubMed Central

Ryu, Ehri

2014-01-01

Assessing goodness of model fit is one of the key questions in structural equation modeling (SEM). Goodness of fit is the extent to which the hypothesized model reproduces the multivariate structure underlying the set of variables. During the earlier development of multilevel structural equation models, the “standard” approach was to evaluate the goodness of fit for the entire model across all levels simultaneously. The model fit statistics produced by the standard approach have a potential problem in detecting lack of fit in the higher-level model for which the effective sample size is much smaller. Also when the standard approach results in poor model fit, it is not clear at which level the model does not fit well. This article reviews two alternative approaches that have been proposed to overcome the limitations of the standard approach. One is a two-step procedure which first produces estimates of saturated covariance matrices at each level and then performs single-level analysis at each level with the estimated covariance matrices as input (Yuan and Bentler, 2007). The other level-specific approach utilizes partially saturated models to obtain test statistics and fit indices for each level separately (Ryu and West, 2009). Simulation studies (e.g., Yuan and Bentler, 2007; Ryu and West, 2009) have consistently shown that both alternative approaches performed well in detecting lack of fit at any level, whereas the standard approach failed to detect lack of fit at the higher level. It is recommended that the alternative approaches are used to assess the model fit in multilevel structural equation model. Advantages and disadvantages of the two alternative approaches are discussed. The alternative approaches are demonstrated in an empirical example. PMID:24550882

A new harvest operation cost model to evaluate forest harvest layout alternatives

Treesearch

Mark M. Clark; Russell D. Meller; Timothy P. McDonald; Chao Chi Ting

1997-01-01

The authors develop a new model for harvest operation costs that can be used to evaluate stands for potential harvest. The model is based on felling, extraction, and access costs, and is unique in its consideration of the interaction between harvest area shapes and access roads. The scientists illustrate the model and evaluate the impact of stand size, volume, and road...

Physical-chemical properties and evaluative fate modelling of 'emerging' and 'novel' brominated and organophosphorus flame retardants in the indoor and outdoor environment.

PubMed

Liagkouridis, Ioannis; Cousins, Anna Palm; Cousins, Ian T

2015-08-15

Several groups of flame retardants (FRs) have entered the market in recent years as replacements for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), but little is known about their physical-chemical properties or their environmental transport and fate. Here we make best estimates of the physical-chemical properties and undertake evaluative modelling assessments (indoors and outdoors) for 35 so-called 'novel' and 'emerging' brominated flame retardants (BFRs) and 22 organophosphorus flame retardants (OPFRs). A QSPR (Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship) based technique is used to reduce uncertainty in physical-chemical properties and to aid property selection for modelling, but it is evident that more, high quality property data are required for improving future assessments. Evaluative modelling results show that many of the alternative FRs, mainly alternative BFRs and some of the halogenated OPFRs, behave similarly to the PBDEs both indoors and outdoors. These alternative FRs exhibit high overall persistence (Pov), long-range transport potential (LRTP) and POP-like behaviour and on that basis cannot be regarded as suitable replacements to PBDEs. A group of low molecular weight alternative BFRs and non-halogenated OPFRs show a potentially better environmental performance based on Pov and LRTP metrics. Results must be interpreted with caution though since there are significant uncertainties and limited data to allow for thorough model evaluation. Additional environmental parameters such as toxicity and bioaccumulative potential as well as functionality issues should be considered in an industrial substitution strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying an integrated model to the evaluation of travel demand management policies in the Sacramento Region : year two

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-01

In this study, the authors apply an integrated land use and transportation model, the Sacramento MEPLAN model, to evaluate transit investment alternatives combines with supportive land use policies and pricing policies in the Sacramento region. The c...

Alternative spatial configurations to reflect landscape structure in a hydrological model: SUMMA applications to the Reynolds Creek Watershed and the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, Bart; Clark, Martyn; Mizukami, Naoki; Chegwidden, Oriana

2016-04-01

Most existing hydrological models use a fixed representation of landscape structure. For example, high-resolution, spatially-distributed models may use grid cells that exchange moisture through the saturated subsurface or may divide the landscape into hydrologic response units that only exchange moisture through surface channels. Alternatively, many regional models represent the landscape through coarse elements that do not model any moisture exchange between these model elements. These spatial organizations are often represented at a low-level in the model code and its data structures, which makes it difficult to evaluate different landscape representations using the same hydrological model. Instead, such experimentation requires the use of multiple, different hydrological models, which in turn complicates the analysis, because differences in model outcomes are no longer constrained by differing spatial representations. This inflexibility in the representation of landscape structure also limits a model's capability for scaling local processes to regional outcomes. In this study, we used the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) to evaluate different model spatial configurations to represent landscape structure and to evaluate scaling behavior. SUMMA can represent the moisture exchange between arbitrarily shaped landscape elements in a number of different ways, while using the same model parameterizations for vertical fluxes. This allows us to isolate the effects of changes in landscape representations on modeled hydrological fluxes and states. We examine the effects of spatial configuration in Reynolds Creek, Idaho, USA, which is a research watershed with gaged areas from 1-20 km2. We then use the same modeling system to evaluate scaling behavior in simulated hydrological fluxes in the Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, USA. This basin drains more than 500,000 km2 and includes the Reynolds Creek Watershed.

Simulating the Use of Alternative Fuels in a Turbofan Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Chin, Jeffrey Chevoor; Liu, Yuan

2013-01-01

The interest in alternative fuels for aviation has created a need to evaluate their effect on engine performance. The use of dynamic turbofan engine simulations enables the comparative modeling of the performance of these fuels on a realistic test bed in terms of dynamic response and control compared to traditional fuels. The analysis of overall engine performance and response characteristics can lead to a determination of the practicality of using specific alternative fuels in commercial aircraft. This paper describes a procedure to model the use of alternative fuels in a large commercial turbofan engine, and quantifies their effects on engine and vehicle performance. In addition, the modeling effort notionally demonstrates that engine performance may be maintained by modifying engine control system software parameters to account for the alternative fuel.

Evaluating Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brethower, Karen S.; Rummler, Geary A.

1979-01-01

Presents general systems models (ballistic system, guided system, and adaptive system) and an evaluation matrix to help in examining training evaluation alternatives and in deciding what evaluation is appropriate. Includes some guidelines for conducting evaluation studies using four designs (control group, reversal, multiple baseline, and…

Design Mining Interacting Wind Turbines.

PubMed

Preen, Richard J; Bull, Larry

2016-01-01

An initial study has recently been presented of surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms used to design vertical-axis wind turbines wherein candidate prototypes are evaluated under fan-generated wind conditions after being physically instantiated by a 3D printer. Unlike other approaches, such as computational fluid dynamics simulations, no mathematical formulations were used and no model assumptions were made. This paper extends that work by exploring alternative surrogate modelling and evolutionary techniques. The accuracy of various modelling algorithms used to estimate the fitness of evaluated individuals from the initial experiments is compared. The effect of temporally windowing surrogate model training samples is explored. A surrogate-assisted approach based on an enhanced local search is introduced; and alternative coevolution collaboration schemes are examined.

A Goal Seeking Strategy for Constructing Systems from Alternative Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valentine, Mark E.

1999-01-01

This paper describes a methodology to efficiently construct feasible systems then modify feasible systems to meet successive goals by selecting from alternative components, a problem recognized to be n-p complete. The methodology provides a means to catalog and model alternative components. A presented system modeling Structure is robust enough to model a wide variety of systems and provides a means to compare and evaluate alternative systems. These models act as input to a methodology for selecting alternative components to construct feasible systems and modify feasible systems to meet design goals and objectives. The presented algorithm's ability to find a restricted solution, as defined by a unique set of requirements, is demonstrated against an exhaustive search of a sample of proposed shuttle modifications. The utility of the algorithm is demonstrated by comparing results from the algorithm with results from three NASA shuttle evolution studies using their value systems and assumptions.

Integrating distributional, spatial prioritization, and individual-based models to evaluate potential critical habitat networks: A case study using the Northern Spotted Owl

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the northern spotted owl recovery planning effort, we evaluated a series of alternative critical habitat scenarios using a species-distribution model (MaxEnt), a conservation-planning model (Zonation), and an individual-based population model (HexSim). With this suite ...

Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows.

PubMed

Mills, J A N; Kebreab, E; Yates, C M; Crompton, L A; Cammell, S B; Dhanoa, M S; Agnew, R E; France, J

2003-12-01

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three nonlinear alternatives that were all of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

An integrated modelling and multicriteria analysis approach to managing nitrate diffuse pollution: 2. A case study for a chalk catchment in England.

PubMed

Koo, B K; O'Connell, P E

2006-04-01

The site-specific land use optimisation methodology, suggested by the authors in the first part of this two-part paper, has been applied to the River Kennet catchment at Marlborough, Wiltshire, UK, for a case study. The Marlborough catchment (143 km(2)) is an agriculture-dominated rural area over a deep chalk aquifer that is vulnerable to nitrate pollution from agricultural diffuse sources. For evaluation purposes, the catchment was discretised into a network of 1 kmx1 km grid cells. For each of the arable-land grid cells, seven land use alternatives (four arable-land alternatives and three grassland alternatives) were evaluated for their environmental and economic potential. For environmental evaluation, nitrate leaching rates of land use alternatives were estimated using SHETRAN simulations and groundwater pollution potential was evaluated using the DRASTIC index. For economic evaluation, economic gross margins were estimated using a simple agronomic model based on nitrogen response functions and agricultural land classification grades. In order to see whether the site-specific optimisation is efficient at the catchment scale, land use optimisation was carried out for four optimisation schemes (i.e. using four sets of criterion weights). Consequently, four land use scenarios were generated and the site-specifically optimised land use scenario was evaluated as the best compromise solution between long term nitrate pollution and agronomy at the catchment scale.

Establishment of a new in vitro test method for evaluation of eye irritancy using a reconstructed human corneal epithelial model, LabCyte CORNEA-MODEL.

PubMed

Katoh, Masakazu; Hamajima, Fumiyasu; Ogasawara, Takahiro; Hata, Ken-ichiro

2013-12-01

Finding in vitro eye irritation testing alternatives to animal testing such as the Draize eye test, which uses rabbits, is essential from the standpoint of animal welfare. It has been developed a reconstructed human corneal epithelial model, the LabCyte CORNEA-MODEL, which has a representative corneal epithelium-like structure. Protocol optimization (pre-validation study) was examined in order to establish a new alternative method for eye irritancy evaluation with this model. From the results of the optimization experiments, the application periods for chemicals were set at 1min for liquid chemicals or 24h for solid chemicals, and the post-exposure incubation periods were set at 24h for liquids or zero for solids. If the viability was less than 50%, the chemical was judged to be an eye irritant. Sixty-one chemicals were applied in the optimized protocol using the LabCyte CORNEA-MODEL and these results were evaluated in correlation with in vivo results. The predictions of the optimized LabCyte CORNEA-MODEL eye irritation test methods were highly correlated with in vivo eye irritation (sensitivity 100%, specificity 80.0%, and accuracy 91.8%). These results suggest that the LabCyte CORNEA-MODEL eye irritation test could be useful as an alternative method to the Draize eye test. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating species distributional, conservation planning, and individual based population models: A case study in critical habitat evaluation for the Northern Spotted Owl

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods As part of the ongoing northern spotted owl recovery planning effort, we evaluated a series of alternative potential critical habitat scenarios using a species-distribution model (MaxEnt), a conservation-planning model (Zonation), and an individua...

Value-Added Models for Teacher Preparation Programs: Validity and Reliability Threats, and a Manageable Alternative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brady, Michael P.; Heiser, Lawrence A.; McCormick, Jazarae K.; Forgan, James

2016-01-01

High-stakes standardized student assessments are increasingly used in value-added evaluation models to connect teacher performance to P-12 student learning. These assessments are also being used to evaluate teacher preparation programs, despite validity and reliability threats. A more rational model linking student performance to candidates who…

Evaluation of the Navys Sea/Shore Flow Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

CNA developed an independent Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate and assess the effect of alternative sea/shore flow policies. In this study...remains, even if the system is optimized. In building a Discrete -Event Simulation model, we discovered key factors that should be included in the... Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate the impact of sea/shore flow policy (the DES-SSF model) and compared the results with the SSFM for one

Evaluating alternative fuel treatment strategies to reduce wildfire losses in a Mediterranean area

Treesearch

Michele Salis; Maurizio Laconi; Alan A. Ager; Fermin J. Alcasena; Bachisio Arca; Olga Lozano; Ana Fernandes de Oliveira; Donatella Spano

2016-01-01

The goal of this work is to evaluate by a modeling approach the effectiveness of alternative fuel treatment strategies to reduce potential losses from wildfires in Mediterranean areas. We compared strategic fuel treatments located near specific human values vs random locations, and treated 3, 9 and 15% of a 68,000 ha study area located in Sardinia, Italy. The...

HRST architecture modeling and assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comstock, D.A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents work supporting the assessment of advanced concept options for the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) study. It describes the development of computer models as the basis for creating an integrated capability to evaluate the economic feasibility and sustainability of a variety of system architectures. It summarizes modeling capabilities for use on the HRST study to perform sensitivity analysis of alternative architectures (consisting of different combinations of highly reusable vehicles, launch assist systems, and alternative operations and support concepts) in terms of cost, schedule, performance, and demand. In addition, the identification and preliminary assessment of alternative market segmentsmore » for HRST applications, such as space manufacturing, space tourism, etc., is described. Finally, the development of an initial prototype model that can begin to be used for modeling alternative HRST concepts at the system level is presented. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}« less

A model for evaluation of satellite population management alternatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penny, R. E., Jr.; Jones, R. K.

1983-12-01

A Q-GERT model was developed to simulate the satellite environment, including the untracked man-made population, and to calculate a probability of collision for any satellite of interest. Provision for launches, explosions, collisions (including ASAT), retrieval, reposition, and decay was made. The model is structured to easily vary the rates at which these activities occur and to observe changes in the satellite population through which a satellite of interest must travel. Variance of the rates, and the resultant change in probability of collision allows evaluation of satellite population management alternatives such as reducing launch rates or increasing retrieval of spent, but still capable of exploding, satellites. The model is proposed for use by both the USAF SPACE COMMAND and NASA.

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

High School Students' Evaluations, Plausibility (Re) Appraisals, and Knowledge about Topics in Earth Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lombardi, Doug; Bickel, Elliot S.; Bailey, Janelle M.; Burrell, Shondricka

2018-01-01

Evaluation is an important aspect of science and is receiving increasing attention in science education. The present study investigated (1) changes to plausibility judgments and knowledge as a result of a series of instructional scaffolds, called model-evidence link activities, that facilitated evaluation of scientific and alternative models in…

Community-Based Rehabilitation (CBR): Problems and Possibilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Toole, Brian

1987-01-01

The institution-based model for providing services to individuals with disabilities has limitations in both developing and developed countries. The community-based rehabilitation model was positively evaluated by the World Health Organization as an alternative approach, but the evaluation is questioned on methodological and philosophical grounds.…

Assessing the performances of low impact development alternatives by long-term simulation for a semi-arid area in Tianjin, northern China.

PubMed

Huang, Jinhui Jeanne; Li, Yu; Niu, Shuai; Zhou, Shu H

2014-01-01

For areas that are urbanized rapidly, the practice of low impact development (LID) has gained an important place in stormwater management and urban planning due to its capability and beneficial effects in restoring the original hydrological cycle. The performances of LID alternatives can vary substantially due to different climate conditions. This study investigated the performances of five LID alternatives under a semi-arid climate in northern China on water balance and flood control. A numerical model, Storm Water Management Model version 5 (US Environmental Protection Agency), was employed to run 10 years' rainfall events for these objectives. Two evaluation methods were proposed in this study: the efficiency index for water balance and a performance radar chart. The investigation of the five LID alternatives revealed that these LID alternatives functioned differently in flood control and water balance, and porous pavement performed best in all indices except the lag time. The two evaluation methods, in conjunction with the long-term numerical simulation, can facilitate design and decision making by providing a clear picture of the performance and functions for these LID alternatives.

Right-Sizing Statistical Models for Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Wood, Phillip K.; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M.

2015-01-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to “right-size” the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting overly parsimonious models to more complex better fitting alternatives, and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically under-identified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A three-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation/covariation patterns. The orthogonal, free-curve slope-intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered as a general model which includes, as special cases, many models including the Factor Mean model (FM, McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), Repeated Measures MANOVA, and the Linear Slope Intercept (LinearSI) Growth Model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparison of several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. PMID:26237507

Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

2015-12-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included both plan trend and conservation "futures" projected to 2030. Scena...

AN ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE

EPA Science Inventory

An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included plan trend and conservation "futures" scenarios projected to 2030. ...

Evaluating the Bias of Alternative Cost Progress Models: Tests Using Aerospace Industry Acquisition Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

suspect :mat, -n2 extent predict:.on cas jas ccsiziveiv crrei:=e amonc e v:arious models, :he fandom *.;aik, learn ha r ur e, i;<ea- variable and Bemis...Functions, Production Rate Adjustment Model, Learning Curve Model. Random Walk Model. Bemis Model. Evaluating Model Bias, Cost Prediction Bias. Cost...of four cost progress models--a random walk model, the tradiuonai learning curve model, a production rate model Ifixed-variable model). and a model

Development of alternative sulfur dioxide control strategies for a metropolitan area and its environs, utilizing a modified climatological dispersion model

Treesearch

K. J. Skipka; D. B. Smith

1977-01-01

Alternative control strategies were developed for achieving compliance with ambient air quality standards in Portland, Maine, and its environs, using a modified climatological dispersion model (CDM) and manipulating the sulfur content of the fuel oil consumed in four concentric zones. Strategies were evaluated for their impact on ambient air quality, economics, and...

An Evaluation of the Single-Group Growth Model as an Alternative to Common-Item Equating. Research Report. ETS RR-16-01

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wei, Youhua; Morgan, Rick

2016-01-01

As an alternative to common-item equating when common items do not function as expected, the single-group growth model (SGGM) scaling uses common examinees or repeaters to link test scores on different forms. The SGGM scaling assumes that, for repeaters taking adjacent administrations, the conditional distribution of scale scores in later…

A framework for evaluating forest restoration alternatives and their outcomes, over time, to inform monitoring: Bioregional inventory originated simulation under management

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Sara Loreno; Robert F. Keefe; Conor K. Bell

2017-01-01

The BioSum modeling framework summarizes current and prospective future forest conditions under alternative management regimes along with their costs, revenues and product yields. BioSum translates Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for input to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), summarizes FVS outputs for input to the treatment operations cost model (OpCost...

Network Performance Evaluation Model for assessing the impacts of high-occupancy vehicle facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janson, B.N.; Zozaya-Gorostiza, C.; Southworth, F.

1986-09-01

A model to assess the impacts of major high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) facilities on regional levels of energy consumption and vehicle air pollution emissions in urban aeas is developed and applied. This model can be used to forecast and compare the impacts of alternative HOV facility design and operation plans on traffic patterns, travel costs, model choice, travel demand, energy consumption and vehicle emissions. The model is designed to show differences in the overall impacts of alternative HOV facility types, locations and operation plans rather than to serve as a tool for detailed engineering design and traffic planning studies. The Networkmore » Performance Evaluation Model (NETPEM) combines several urban transportation planning models within a multi-modal network equilibrium framework including modules with which to define the type, location and use policy of the HOV facility to be tested, and to assess the impacts of this facility.« less

A decision tool for selecting trench cap designs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paige, G.B.; Stone, J.J.; Lane, L.J.

1995-12-31

A computer based prototype decision support system (PDSS) is being developed to assist the risk manager in selecting an appropriate trench cap design for waste disposal sites. The selection of the {open_quote}best{close_quote} design among feasible alternatives requires consideration of multiple and often conflicting objectives. The methodology used in the selection process consists of: selecting and parameterizing decision variables using data, simulation models, or expert opinion; selecting feasible trench cap design alternatives; ordering the decision variables and ranking the design alternatives. The decision model is based on multi-objective decision theory and uses a unique approach to order the decision variables andmore » rank the design alternatives. Trench cap designs are evaluated based on federal regulations, hydrologic performance, cover stability and cost. Four trench cap designs, which were monitored for a four year period at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, are used to demonstrate the application of the PDSS and evaluate the results of the decision model. The results of the PDSS, using both data and simulations, illustrate the relative advantages of each of the cap designs and which cap is the {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} alternative for a given set of criteria and a particular importance order of those decision criteria.« less

Uncertainty and the Conceptual Site Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, V.; Nicholson, T. J.

2007-12-01

Our focus is on uncertainties in the underlying conceptual framework upon which all subsequent steps in numerical and/or analytical modeling efforts depend. Experienced environmental modelers recognize the value of selecting an optimal conceptual model from several competing site models, but usually do not formally explore possible alternative models, in part due to incomplete or missing site data, as well as relevant regional data for establishing boundary conditions. The value in and approach for developing alternative conceptual site models (CSM) is demonstrated by analysis of case histories. These studies are based on reported flow or transport modeling in which alternative site models are formulated using data that were not available to, or not used by, the original modelers. An important concept inherent to model abstraction of these alternative conceptual models is that it is "Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than the exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise." (Tukey, 1962) The case histories discussed here illustrate the value of formulating alternative models and evaluating them using site-specific data: (1) Charleston Naval Site where seismic characterization data allowed significant revision of the CSM and subsequent contaminant transport modeling; (2) Hanford 300-Area where surface- and ground-water interactions affecting the unsaturated zone suggested an alternative component to the site model; (3) Savannah River C-Area where a characterization report for a waste site within the modeled area was not available to the modelers, but provided significant new information requiring changes to the underlying geologic and hydrogeologic CSM's used; (4) Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) where re-interpretation of resistivity sounding data and water-level data suggested an alternative geologic model. Simple 2-D spreadsheet modeling of the ADRS with the revised CSM provided an improved match to vapor-phase tritium migration. Site-specific monitoring coupled to these alternative CSM's greatly assists in conducting uncertainty assessments. (Work supported by USNRC contract NRC-04-03-061.)

Alternative Bio-Based Solvents for Extraction of Fat and Oils: Solubility Prediction, Global Yield, Extraction Kinetics, Chemical Composition and Cost of Manufacturing

PubMed Central

Sicaire, Anne-Gaëlle; Vian, Maryline; Fine, Frédéric; Joffre, Florent; Carré, Patrick; Tostain, Sylvain; Chemat, Farid

2015-01-01

The present study was designed to evaluate the performance of alternative bio-based solvents, more especially 2-methyltetrahydrofuran, obtained from crop’s byproducts for the substitution of petroleum solvents such as hexane in the extraction of fat and oils for food (edible oil) and non-food (bio fuel) applications. First a solvent selection as well as an evaluation of the performance was made with Hansen Solubility Parameters and the COnductor-like Screening MOdel for Realistic Solvation (COSMO-RS) simulations. Experiments were performed on rapeseed oil extraction at laboratory and pilot plant scale for the determination of lipid yields, extraction kinetics, diffusion modeling, and complete lipid composition in term of fatty acids and micronutrients (sterols, tocopherols and tocotrienols). Finally, economic and energetic evaluations of the process were conducted to estimate the cost of manufacturing using 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MeTHF) as alternative solvent compared to hexane as petroleum solvent. PMID:25884332

ALTERNATIVES TO HELIUM-3 FOR NEUTRON MULTIPLICITY DETECTORS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ely, James H.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Swinhoe, Martyn T.

Collaboration between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is underway to evaluate neutron detection technologies that might replace the high-pressure helium (3He) tubes currently used in neutron multiplicity counter for safeguards applications. The current stockpile of 3He is diminishing and alternatives are needed for a variety of neutron detection applications including multiplicity counters. The first phase of this investigation uses a series of Monte Carlo calculations to simulate the performance of an existing neutron multiplicity counter configuration by replacing the 3He tubes in a model for that counter with candidate alternative technologies. Thesemore » alternative technologies are initially placed in approximately the same configuration as the 3He tubes to establish a reference level of performance against the 3He-based system. After these reference-level results are established, the configurations of the alternative models will be further modified for performance optimization. The 3He model for these simulations is the one used by LANL to develop and benchmark the Epithermal Neutron Multiplicity Counter (ENMC) detector, as documented by H.O. Menlove, et al. in the 2004 LANL report LA-14088. The alternative technologies being evaluated are the boron-tri-fluoride-filled proportional tubes, boron-lined tubes, and lithium coated materials previously tested as possible replacements in portal monitor screening applications, as documented by R.T. Kouzes, et al. in the 2010 PNNL report PNNL-72544 and NIM A 623 (2010) 1035–1045. The models and methods used for these comparative calculations will be described and preliminary results shown« less

a New Multi-Criteria Evaluation Model Based on the Combination of Non-Additive Fuzzy Ahp, Choquet Integral and Sugeno λ-MEASURE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadi, S.; Samiei, M.; Salari, H. R.; Karami, N.

2017-09-01

This paper proposes a new model for multi-criteria evaluation under uncertain condition. In this model we consider the interaction between criteria as one of the most challenging issues especially in the presence of uncertainty. In this case usual pairwise comparisons and weighted sum cannot be used to calculate the importance of criteria and to aggregate them. Our model is based on the combination of non-additive fuzzy linguistic preference relation AHP (FLPRAHP), Choquet integral and Sugeno λ-measure. The proposed model capture fuzzy preferences of users and fuzzy values of criteria and uses Sugeno λ -measure to determine the importance of criteria and their interaction. Then, integrating Choquet integral and FLPRAHP, all the interaction between criteria are taken in to account with least number of comparison and the final score for each alternative is determined. So we would model a comprehensive set of interactions between criteria that can lead us to more reliable result. An illustrative example presents the effectiveness and capability of the proposed model to evaluate different alternatives in a multi-criteria decision problem.

Cutter Resource Effectiveness Evaluation (CREE) Program : A Guide for Users and Analysts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-03-01

The Cutter Resource Effectiveness Evaluation (CREE) project has developed a sophisticated, user-oriented computer model which can evaluate the effectiveness of any existing Coast Guard craft, or the effectiveness of any of a number of proposed altern...

Driver-vehicle effectiveness model : volume II : appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-12-01

The Driver-Vehicle Effectiveness Model (DRIVEM) is a Monte Carlo simulation model intended for use by NHTSA to evaluate alternative vehicle subsystems or effects of legislative actions proposed to reduce the probability and severity of highway traffi...

Shuttle payload vibroacoustic test plan evaluation. Free flyer payload applications and sortie payload parametric variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahle, C. V.; Gongloff, H. R.

1977-01-01

A preliminary assessment of vibroacoustic test plan optimization for free flyer STS payloads is presented and the effects on alternate test plans for Spacelab sortie payloads number of missions are also examined. The component vibration failure probability and the number of components in the housekeeping subassemblies are provided. Decision models are used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of seven alternate test plans using protoflight hardware.

A cloud model based multi-attribute decision making approach for selection and evaluation of groundwater management schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Hongwei; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong; Tian, Peipei; Liu, Jia

2017-12-01

Due to the uncertainty (i.e., fuzziness, stochasticity and imprecision) existed simultaneously during the process for groundwater remediation, the accuracy of ranking results obtained by the traditional methods has been limited. This paper proposes a cloud model based multi-attribute decision making framework (CM-MADM) with Monte Carlo for the contaminated-groundwater remediation strategies selection. The cloud model is used to handle imprecise numerical quantities, which can describe the fuzziness and stochasticity of the information fully and precisely. In the proposed approach, the contaminated concentrations are aggregated via the backward cloud generator and the weights of attributes are calculated by employing the weight cloud module. A case study on the remedial alternative selection for a contaminated site suffering from a 1,1,1-trichloroethylene leakage problem in Shanghai, China is conducted to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the developed approach. Totally, an attribute system which consists of ten attributes were used for evaluating each alternative through the developed method under uncertainty, including daily total pumping rate, total cost and cloud model based health risk. Results indicated that A14 was evaluated to be the most preferred alternative for the 5-year, A5 for the 10-year, A4 for the 15-year and A6 for the 20-year remediation.

The future for follow-up of gynaecological cancer in Europe. Summary of available data and overview of ongoing trials.

PubMed

Leeson, S C; Beaver, K; Ezendam, N P M; Mačuks, R; Martin-Hirsch, P L; Miles, T; Jeppesen, M M; Jensen, P T; Zola, P

2017-03-01

After completing treatment, most patients follow a pre-determined schedule of regular hospital outpatient appointments, which includes clinical examinations, consultations and routine tests. After several years of surveillance, patients are transferred back to primary care. However, there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach. This paper examines the current rationale and evidence base for hospital-based follow-up after treatment for gynaecological cancer. We investigate what alternative models of care have been formally evaluated and what research is currently in progress in Europe, in order to make tentative recommendations for a model of follow-up. The evidence base for traditional hospital based follow-up is limited. Alternative models have been reported for other cancer types but there are few evaluations of alternative approaches for gynaecological cancers. We identified five ongoing European studies; four were focused on endometrial cancer patients and one feasibility study included all gynaecological cancers. Only one study had reached the reporting stage. Alternative models included nurse-led telephone follow-up and comparisons of more intensive versus less intensive regimes. Outcomes included survival, quality of life, psychological morbidity, patient satisfaction and cost effectiveness of service. More work is needed on alternative strategies for all gynaecological cancer types. New models will be likely to include risk stratification with early discharge from secondary care for early stage disease with fast track access to specialist services for suspected cancer recurrence or other problems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Signature project 1B-integrated land-use, transportation and environmental modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Land use and transportation are inextricably linked. Models that capture the dynamics and interactions of both systems are indispensable for evaluating alternative courses of action in policy and investment. These models must be spatially disaggregat...

On the effects of alternative optima in context-specific metabolic model predictions

PubMed Central

Nikoloski, Zoran

2017-01-01

The integration of experimental data into genome-scale metabolic models can greatly improve flux predictions. This is achieved by restricting predictions to a more realistic context-specific domain, like a particular cell or tissue type. Several computational approaches to integrate data have been proposed—generally obtaining context-specific (sub)models or flux distributions. However, these approaches may lead to a multitude of equally valid but potentially different models or flux distributions, due to possible alternative optima in the underlying optimization problems. Although this issue introduces ambiguity in context-specific predictions, it has not been generally recognized, especially in the case of model reconstructions. In this study, we analyze the impact of alternative optima in four state-of-the-art context-specific data integration approaches, providing both flux distributions and/or metabolic models. To this end, we present three computational methods and apply them to two particular case studies: leaf-specific predictions from the integration of gene expression data in a metabolic model of Arabidopsis thaliana, and liver-specific reconstructions derived from a human model with various experimental data sources. The application of these methods allows us to obtain the following results: (i) we sample the space of alternative flux distributions in the leaf- and the liver-specific case and quantify the ambiguity of the predictions. In addition, we show how the inclusion of ℓ1-regularization during data integration reduces the ambiguity in both cases. (ii) We generate sets of alternative leaf- and liver-specific models that are optimal to each one of the evaluated model reconstruction approaches. We demonstrate that alternative models of the same context contain a marked fraction of disparate reactions. Further, we show that a careful balance between model sparsity and metabolic functionality helps in reducing the discrepancies between alternative models. Finally, our findings indicate that alternative optima must be taken into account for rendering the context-specific metabolic model predictions less ambiguous. PMID:28557990

On the effects of alternative optima in context-specific metabolic model predictions.

PubMed

Robaina-Estévez, Semidán; Nikoloski, Zoran

2017-05-01

The integration of experimental data into genome-scale metabolic models can greatly improve flux predictions. This is achieved by restricting predictions to a more realistic context-specific domain, like a particular cell or tissue type. Several computational approaches to integrate data have been proposed-generally obtaining context-specific (sub)models or flux distributions. However, these approaches may lead to a multitude of equally valid but potentially different models or flux distributions, due to possible alternative optima in the underlying optimization problems. Although this issue introduces ambiguity in context-specific predictions, it has not been generally recognized, especially in the case of model reconstructions. In this study, we analyze the impact of alternative optima in four state-of-the-art context-specific data integration approaches, providing both flux distributions and/or metabolic models. To this end, we present three computational methods and apply them to two particular case studies: leaf-specific predictions from the integration of gene expression data in a metabolic model of Arabidopsis thaliana, and liver-specific reconstructions derived from a human model with various experimental data sources. The application of these methods allows us to obtain the following results: (i) we sample the space of alternative flux distributions in the leaf- and the liver-specific case and quantify the ambiguity of the predictions. In addition, we show how the inclusion of ℓ1-regularization during data integration reduces the ambiguity in both cases. (ii) We generate sets of alternative leaf- and liver-specific models that are optimal to each one of the evaluated model reconstruction approaches. We demonstrate that alternative models of the same context contain a marked fraction of disparate reactions. Further, we show that a careful balance between model sparsity and metabolic functionality helps in reducing the discrepancies between alternative models. Finally, our findings indicate that alternative optima must be taken into account for rendering the context-specific metabolic model predictions less ambiguous.

DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVE POWER TO DRIVE A PARTITIONED AQUACULTURE SYSTEM FOR INTENSIVE FOOD FISH PRODUCTION

EPA Science Inventory

Data collected, such as fish production rates and construction/operating costs, will allow us to evaluate the predictions generated by our modeling activities as well as provide real estimates of cost/benefit for the application of alternative PAS technology in temperate water...

Evaluation of 309 environmental chemicals using a mouse embryonic stem cell adherent cell differentiation and cytotoxicity assay

EPA Science Inventory

The vast landscape of environmental chemicals has motivated the need for alternative methods to traditional whole-animal bioassays in toxicity testing. Embryonic stem (ES) cells provide an in vitro model of embryonic development and an alternative method for assessing development...

Assessment of optional sediment transport functions via the complex watershed simulation model SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool 2012 (SWAT2012) offers four sediment routing methods as optional alternatives to the default simplified Bagnold method. Previous studies compared only one of these alternative sediment routing methods with the default method. The proposed study evaluated the impac...

Alternative Fuel Light-Duty Vehicles: Summary of Results From the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Vehicle Evaluation Data Collection Efforts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-05-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted : a data collection project for light-duty, alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) for : about 4 years. The project has collected data on 10 vehicle models (from the : original ...

Identifying and Evaluating Options for Improving Sediment Management and Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams in the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, T. B.; Reed, P. M.; Loucks, D. P.

2015-12-01

The Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia is undergoing intensive and pervasive hydropower development to satisfy demand for increased energy and income to support its growing population of 60 million people. Just 20 years ago this river flowed freely. Today some 30 large dams exist in the basin, and over 100 more are being planned for construction. These dams will alter the river's natural water, sediment and nutrient flows, thereby impacting river morphology and ecosystems, and will fragment fish migration pathways. In doing so, they will degrade one of the world's most valuable and productive freshwater fish habitats. For those dams that have not yet been constructed, there still exist opportunities to modify their siting, design and operation (SDO) to potentially achieve a more balanced set of tradeoffs among hydropower production, sediment/nutrient passage and fish passage. We introduce examples of such alternative SDO opportunities for Sambor Dam in Cambodia, planned to be constructed on the main stem of the Mekong River. To evaluate the performance of such alternatives, we developed a Python-based simulation tool called PySedSim. PySedSim is a daily time step mass balance model that identifies the relative tradeoffs among hydropower production, and flow and sediment regime alteration, associated with reservoir sediment management techniques such as flushing, sluicing, bypassing, density current venting and dredging. To date, there has been a very limited acknowledgement or evaluation of the significant uncertainties that impact the evaluation of SDO alternatives. This research is formalizing a model diagnostic assessment of the key assumptions and parametric uncertainties that strongly influence PySedSim SDO evaluations. Using stochastic hydrology and sediment load data, our diagnostic assessment evaluates and compares several Sambor Dam alternatives using several performance measures related to energy production, sediment trapping and regime alteration, and fish passage. We show that performance of the alternatives can be highly variable, and conduct a simultaneous multi-parameter factor screening sensitivity analysis to identify the subset of PySedSim model parameters that contribute most significantly to performance uncertainties in attempts to identify the more robust options.

Methodology to evaluate the performance of simulation models for alternative compiler and operating system configurations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation modelers increasingly require greater flexibility for model implementation on diverse operating systems, and they demand high computational speed for efficient iterative simulations. Additionally, model users may differ in preference for proprietary versus open-source software environment...

Bridging the gap between habitat-modeling research and bird conservation with dynamic landscape and population models

Treesearch

Frank R., III Thompson

2009-01-01

Habitat models are widely used in bird conservation planning to assess current habitat or populations and to evaluate management alternatives. These models include species-habitat matrix or database models, habitat suitability models, and statistical models that predict abundance. While extremely useful, these approaches have some limitations.

Statistical Power of Alternative Structural Models for Comparative Effectiveness Research: Advantages of Modeling Unreliability.

PubMed

Coman, Emil N; Iordache, Eugen; Dierker, Lisa; Fifield, Judith; Schensul, Jean J; Suggs, Suzanne; Barbour, Russell

2014-05-01

The advantages of modeling the unreliability of outcomes when evaluating the comparative effectiveness of health interventions is illustrated. Adding an action-research intervention component to a regular summer job program for youth was expected to help in preventing risk behaviors. A series of simple two-group alternative structural equation models are compared to test the effect of the intervention on one key attitudinal outcome in terms of model fit and statistical power with Monte Carlo simulations. Some models presuming parameters equal across the intervention and comparison groups were underpowered to detect the intervention effect, yet modeling the unreliability of the outcome measure increased their statistical power and helped in the detection of the hypothesized effect. Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) could benefit from flexible multi-group alternative structural models organized in decision trees, and modeling unreliability of measures can be of tremendous help for both the fit of statistical models to the data and their statistical power.

Evaluation of Cost Leadership Strategy in Shipping Enterprises with Simulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferfeli, Maria V.; Vaxevanou, Anthi Z.; Damianos, Sakas P.

2009-08-01

The present study will attempt the evaluation of cost leadership strategy that prevails in certain shipping enterprises and the creation of simulation models based on strategic model STAIR. The above model is an alternative method of strategic applications evaluation. This is held in order to be realised if the strategy of cost leadership creates competitive advantage [1] and this will be achieved via the technical simulation which appreciates the interactions between the operations of an enterprise and the decision-making strategy in conditions of uncertainty with reduction of undertaken risk.

An alternative model for postdoctoral education of nurses engaged in research with potentially vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Gennaro, Susan; Deatrick, Janet A; Dobal, May T; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Ball, Katherine R

2007-01-01

Post-doctoral education has become a necessity for new nursing doctoral graduates. However, post-doctoral positions are limited and nurse scientists may face barriers that make non-traditional programs necessary. This study describes the outcomes of the Summer Nursing Research Institute (SNRI), an alternative post-doctoral educational program, reports formative perceptions of SNRI participants, and illustrates the efficacy and limitations of the model with selected summative research related outcomes. Participants between 1997 and 2006 were asked to evaluate the experience while attending the Institute (formative evaluation) and an overall summative evaluation was also conducted. Evaluations indicate that participants gained knowledge, skills, and networking abilities in terms of conducting research with vulnerable populations. A program like the SNRI can be successful in widening the research pipeline, in imparting knowledge, and in fostering positive attitudes as well as in improving research skills.

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

The Pursuit of Word Meanings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stevens, Jon Scott; Gleitman, Lila R.; Trueswell, John C.; Yang, Charles

2017-01-01

We evaluate here the performance of four models of cross-situational word learning: two global models, which extract and retain multiple referential alternatives from each word occurrence; and two local models, which extract just a single referent from each occurrence. One of these local models, dubbed "Pursuit," uses an associative…

Participation versus Privacy in the Training of Group Counselors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierce, Keith A.; Baldwin, Cynthia

1990-01-01

Examines the process of requiring and evaluating personal growth group participation for students in counselor education programs. Discusses the key components in the dilemma of protecting privacy while evaluating competencies, including ethical practices and program alternatives to avoid evaluation. Proposes a model that will enable participation…

Alternative Modes of Evaluation and Their Application to Rural Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wetherill, G. Richard; Buttram, Joan L.

In order to "cut through the jargon of the multifaceted field of evaluative research", 21 evaluation models representing a range of possibilities were identified (via literature review) and compared in terms of purpose and five basic phases applicable to rural development. Evaluation was defined as "the systematic examination of a…

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.

2013-01-01

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cekresolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek obtained from the iterative two-stage method also improved predictive performance of the individual models and model averaging in both synthetic and experimental studies.

Modeling and design study using HFC-236ea as an alternative refrigerant in a centrifugal compressor. Final report, January 1994-September 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Popovic, P.; Shapiro, H.N.

1997-04-01

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in cooperation with the Navy has been seeking a CFC-114 drop-in placement. One alternative HFC refrigerant which appears to satisfy all physical and chemical characteristics for the Navy fleet was found to be HFC-236ea refrigerant. The project represents a part of the investigation directed to evaluate this CFC-114 alternative refrigerant as a possible drop-in replacement in Navy chillers. The objective of the study was to conduct a thorough literature review regarding centrifugal compressors and the, on the basis of the information gathered, build an accurate but simple compressor model utilizing the available compressor experimental data.more » Further, the developed compressor model would be used to suggest eventual design adjustments to enhance compressor performance with the alternative HFC-236ea refrigerant.« less

UVM Transportation Research Center signature project 1B : integrated land-use, transportation and environmental modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Land use and transportation are inextricably linked. Models that capture the dynamics and interactions : of both systems are indispensable for evaluating alternative courses of action in policy and investment. : These models must be spatially disaggr...

A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

SIMULATION MODEL FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLANNING. VOLUME 2. MODEL USER MANUAL

EPA Science Inventory

This report provides a user manual for the hydrologic, nonpoint source pollution simulation of the generalized planning model for evaluating forest and farming management alternatives. The manual contains an explanation of application of specific code and indicates changes that s...

Augmentative and Alternative Communication and Language: Evidence-Based Practice and Language Activity Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Katya

2004-01-01

The goal of augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) is the most effective communication possible. Speech-language pathologists are obligated to collect data, measure communication, and apply the principles of evidence-based practice (EBP). This article presents a model for EBP that represents how collecting and evaluating performance data…

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

PubMed

Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M

2013-12-01

This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Evaluating Teachers and Schools Using Student Growth Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schafer, William D.; Lissitz, Robert W.; Zhu, Xiaoshu; Zhang, Yuan; Hou, Xiaodong; Li, Ying

2012-01-01

Interest in Student Growth Modeling (SGM) and Value Added Modeling (VAM) arises from educators concerned with measuring the effectiveness of teaching and other school activities through changes in student performance as a companion and perhaps even an alternative to status. Several formal statistical models have been proposed for year-to-year…

Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

Treesearch

Rosalie J. Ingram

1989-01-01

Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

The Preliminary Design of a Standardized Spacecraft Bus for Small Tactical Satellites (Volume 2)

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-11-01

this requirement, conditions of the model need to be modified to provide some flexibility to the original solution set. In the business world this...time The mission modules modeled in the Modsat computer model are necessarily "generic" in nature to provide both flexibility in design evaluation and...methods employed during the study, the scope of the problem, the value system used to evaluate alternatives, tradeoff studies performed, modeling tools

Conversations, Not Evaluations: An Alternative Model of Performance Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Christopher D.

2003-01-01

Traditional appraisal and evaluation systems focus almost exclusively on an employee's past performance. The desired result in each of these systems is better work performance. The very nature of most appraisals or evaluations, however, may inhibit performance unintentionally by focusing energy, attention and effort on past shortcomings rather…

Phase 1 report : UVM transportation research center signature project 1B : integrated land use, transportation and environmental modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-01

Land use and transportation are inextricably linked. Models that capture the dynamics and interactions of both systems are indispensable for evaluating alternative courses of action in policy and investment. These models must be spatially disaggregat...

Using population models to evaluate management alternatives for Gulf Striped Bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aspinwall, Alexander P.; Irwin, Elise R.; Lloyd, M. Clint

2017-01-01

Interstate management of Gulf Striped Bass Morone saxatilis has involved a thirty-year cooperative effort involving Federal and State agencies in Georgia, Florida and Alabama (Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint Gulf Striped Bass Technical Committee). The Committee has recently focused on developing an adaptive framework for conserving and restoring Gulf Striped Bass in the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River (ACF) system. To evaluate the consequences and tradeoffs among management activities, population models were used to inform management decisions. Stochastic matrix models were constructed with varying recruitment and stocking rates to simulate effects of management alternatives on Gulf Striped Bass population objectives. An age-classified matrix model that incorporated stock fecundity estimates and survival estimates was used to project population growth rate. In addition, combinations of management alternatives (stocking rates, Hydrilla control, harvest regulations) were evaluated with respect to how they influenced Gulf Striped Bass population growth. Annual survival and mortality rates were estimated from catch-curve analysis, while fecundity was estimated and predicted using a linear least squares regression analysis of fish length versus egg number from hatchery brood fish data. Stocking rates and stocked-fish survival rates were estimated from census data. Results indicated that management alternatives could be an effective approach to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population. Population abundance was greatest under maximum stocking effort, maximum Hydrilla control and a moratorium. Conversely, population abundance was lowest under no stocking, no Hydrilla control and the current harvest regulation. Stocking rates proved to be an effective management strategy; however, low survival estimates of stocked fish (1%) limited the potential for population growth. Hydrilla control increased the survival rate of stocked fish and provided higher estimates of population abundances than maximizing the stocking rate. A change in the current harvest regulation (50% harvest regulation) was not an effective alternative to increasing the Gulf Striped Bass population size. Applying a moratorium to the Gulf Striped Bass fishery increased survival rates from 50% to 74% and resulted in the largest population growth of the individual management alternatives. These results could be used by the Committee to inform management decisions for other populations of Striped Bass in the Gulf Region.

A prototype software methodology for the rapid evaluation of biomanufacturing process options.

PubMed

Chhatre, Sunil; Francis, Richard; O'Donovan, Kieran; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J; Newcombe, Anthony R; Keshavarz-Moore, Eli

2007-10-01

A three-layered simulation methodology is described that rapidly evaluates biomanufacturing process options. In each layer, inferior options are screened out, while more promising candidates are evaluated further in the subsequent, more refined layer, which uses more rigorous models that require more data from time-consuming experimentation. Screening ensures laboratory studies are focused only on options showing the greatest potential. To simplify the screening, outputs of production level, cost and time are combined into a single value using multi-attribute-decision-making techniques. The methodology was illustrated by evaluating alternatives to an FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration)-approved process manufacturing rattlesnake antivenom. Currently, antivenom antibodies are recovered from ovine serum by precipitation/centrifugation and proteolyzed before chromatographic purification. Alternatives included increasing the feed volume, replacing centrifugation with microfiltration and replacing precipitation/centrifugation with a Protein G column. The best alternative used a higher feed volume and a Protein G step. By rapidly evaluating the attractiveness of options, the methodology facilitates efficient and cost-effective process development.

Hanson Russian River Ponds floodplain restoration: Feasibility study and conceptual design; Appendix G: Physical evaluation of the restoration alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, Richard R.; Nelson, Jonathan M.

2016-01-01

Appendix G: Hanson Russian River Ponds Floodplain Restoration: Feasibility Study and Conceptual Design |G-1Appendix GPhysical Evaluation of the Restoration AlternativesRichard McDonald and Jonathan Nelson, PhDU.S. Geological Survey Geomorphology and Sediment Transport Laboratory, Golden, ColoradoIntroductionTo assess the relative and overall impacts of the scenarios proposed in Chapters 7 and 9,(Stage I-A–I-D and Stage II-A –II-E), each of the topographic configurations were evaluated over a range of flows. Thisevaluation was carried out using computational flow modeling tools available in the iRIC public-domain river modeling interface (www.i-ric.org, Nelsonet al.in press). Using the iRIC modeling tools described in more detail below, basic hydraulic computations of water-surface elevation, velocity, shear stress, and other hydraulic variables were carried out for the alternatives in the reach surrounding the project area, from the confluence of Dry Creek upstream to the Wohler road bridge downstream, for the full range of observed flows. This methodology allows comparison of the current channel configuration with the proposed alternatives in terms of inundation period and frequency, depth, water velocity, and other hydraulic information. By integrating this kind of information over the reach of interest and the flow record, critical metrics assessing the impacts of various topographic modifications can be compared to those same metrics for the existing condition or other modification scenarios. In addition, because the iRIC tools include predictions of sediment mobility, suspension of fines, and the potential evolution of the land surface in response to flow, these methods provide evaluation of sediment transport, stability of current and proposed surfaces, and evaluation of how these surfaces might evolve into the future. This hydraulic and sediment transport information is critically important for understanding theimpacts of various proposed alternatives on the physical system; perhaps even more importantly given the objectives of the proposed restoration, this information can be related to biological impacts, as is discussed in subsequent chapters of this document.

Simulation of fault performance of a diesel engine driven brushless alternator through PSPICE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narayanan, S.S.Y.; Ananthakrishnan, P.; Hangari, V.U.

1995-12-31

Analysis of the fault performance of a brushless alternator with damper windings in the main alternator has been handled ab initio as a total modeling and simulation problem through proper application of Park`s equivalent circuit approach individually to the main exciter alternator units of the brushless alternator and the same has been implemented through PSPICE. The accuracy of the parameters used in the modeling and results obtained through PSPICE implementation are then evaluated for a specific 125 kVA brushless alternator in two stages as followed: first, by comparison of the predicted fault performance obtained from simulation of the 125 kVAmore » main alternator alone treated as a conventional alternator with the results obtained through the use of closed form analytical expressions available in the literature for fault currents and torques in such conventional alternators. Secondly, by comparison of some of the simulation results with those obtained experimentally on the brushless alternator itself. To enable proper calculation of derating factors to be used in the design of such brushless alternators, simulation results then include harmonic analysis of the steady state fault currents and torques. Throughout these studies, the brushless alternator is treated to be on no load at the instant of occurrence of fault.« less

Should All Patients Be Included in Alternative Payment Models for Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty and Total Knee Arthroplasty?

PubMed

Rozell, Joshua C; Courtney, Paul M; Dattilo, Jonathan R; Wu, Chia H; Lee, Gwo-Chin

2016-09-01

Alternative payment models in total joint replacement incentivize cost effective health care delivery and reward reductions in length of stay (LOS), complications, and readmissions. If not adjusted for patient comorbidities, they may encourage restrictive access to health care. We prospectively evaluated 802 consecutive primary total hip arthroplasty and total knee arthroplasty patients evaluating comorbidities associated with increased LOS and readmissions. During this 9-month period, 115 patients (14.3%) required hospitalization >3 days and 16 (1.99%) were readmitted within 90 days. Univariate analysis demonstrated that preoperative narcotic use, heart failure, stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and liver disease were more likely to require hospitalization >3 days. In multivariate analysis, CKD and COPD were independent risk factors for LOS >3 days. A Charlson comorbidity index >5 points was associated with increased LOS and readmissions. Patients with CKD, COPD, and Charlson comorbidity index >5 points should not be included in alternative payment model for THA and TKA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Schaafsma, Joanna D; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Buskens, Erik

2009-12-01

The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of diagnostic tests. Overview and conceptual discussion. Diagnostic research requires a stepwise approach comprising assessment of test characteristics followed by evaluation of added value, clinical outcome, and cost-effectiveness. These multiple goals are generally incompatible with a randomized design. Decision-analytic models provide an important alternative through integration of the best available evidence. Thus, critical assessment of clinical value and efficient use of resources can be achieved. Decision-analytic models should be considered part of the standard methodology in diagnostic research. They can serve as a valid alternative to diagnostic randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

Description and modelling of the solar-hydrogen-biogas-fuel cell system in GlashusEtt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedström, L.; Wallmark, C.; Alvfors, P.; Rissanen, M.; Stridh, B.; Ekman, J.

The need to reduce pollutant emissions and utilise the world's available energy resources more efficiently has led to increased attention towards e.g. fuel cells, but also to other alternative energy solutions. In order to further understand and evaluate the prerequisites for sustainable and energy-saving systems, ABB and Fortum have equipped an environmental information centre, located in Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm, Sweden, with an alternative energy system. The system is being used to demonstrate and evaluate how a system based on fuel cells and solar cells can function as a complement to existing electricity and heat production. The stationary energy system is situated on the top level of a three-floor glass building and is open to the public. The alternative energy system consists of a fuel cell system, a photovoltaic (PV) cell array, an electrolyser, hydrogen storage tanks, a biogas burner, dc/ac inverters, heat exchangers and an accumulator tank. The fuel cell system includes a reformer and a polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) with a maximum rated electrical output of 4 kW el and a maximum thermal output of 6.5 kW th. The fuel cell stack can be operated with reformed biogas, or directly using hydrogen produced by the electrolyser. The cell stack in the electrolyser consists of proton exchange membrane (PEM) cells. To evaluate different automatic control strategies for the system, a simplified dynamic model has been developed in MATLAB Simulink. The model based on measurement data taken from the actual system. The evaluation is based on demand curves, investment costs, electricity prices and irradiation. Evaluation criteria included in the model are electrical and total efficiencies as well as economic parameters.

A model for evaluating effects of climate, water availability, and water management on wetland impoundments--a case study on Bowdoin, Long Lake, and Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangen, Brian A.; Gleason, Robert A.; Stamm, John F.

2013-01-01

Many wetland impoundments managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the northern Great Plains rely on rivers as a primary water source. A large number of these impoundments currently are being stressed from changes in water supplies and quality, and these problems are forecast to worsen because of projected changes to climate and land use. For example, many managed wetlands in arid regions have become degraded owing to the long-term accumulation of salts and increased salinity associated with evapotranspiration. A primary goal of the USFWS is to provide aquatic habitats for a diversity of waterbirds; thus, wetland managers would benefit from a tool that facilitates evaluation of wetland habitat quality in response to current and anticipated impacts of altered hydrology and salt balances caused by factors such as climate change, water availability, and management actions. A spreadsheet model that simulates the overall water and salinity balance (WSB model) of managed wetland impoundments is presented. The WSB model depicts various habitat metrics, such as water depth, salinity, and surface areas (inundated, dry), which can be used to evaluate alternative management actions under various water-availability and climate scenarios. The WSB model uses widely available spreadsheet software, is relatively simple to use, relies on widely available inputs, and is readily adaptable to specific locations. The WSB model was validated using data from three National Wildlife Refuges with direct and indirect connections to water resources associated with rivers, and common data limitations are highlighted. The WSB model also was used to conduct simulations based on hypothetical climate and management scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating alternative management strategies and climate futures. The WSB model worked well across a range of National Wildlife Refuges and could be a valuable tool for USFWS staff when evaluating system state and management alternatives and establishing long-term goals and objectives.

Reviving the Rodential Model for Composition: Robert Zoellner's Alternative to Flower and Hayes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hatch, Gary

The time has come to re-evaluate the metaphors used when people think about composition. Such a re-evaluation is under way and may affect composition theory, research models, and classroom practice well into the future. Robert Zoellner rejected the prevailing metaphor for teaching writing which equates the act of thinking with the act of writing.…

Northwest Montana/North Idaho transmission corridor study: a computer-assisted corridor location and impact evaluation assessment

Treesearch

Timothy J. Murray; Daniel J. Bisenius; Jay G. Marcotte

1979-01-01

A computer-assisted method was used to locate and evaluate approximately 1,200 miles of alternative corridors within an 8,000 square mile study region. The method involved in-depth impact analyses for nine major location criteria or determinant models. Regional "experts" from the Rocky Mountain area participated with BPA in developing model structure....

FTM-West Model Results for Selected Fuel Treatment Scenarios

Treesearch

Andrew D. Kramp; Peter J. Ince

2006-01-01

This paper evaluated potential forest product market impacts in the U.S. West of increases in the supply of wood from thinnings to reduce fire hazard. Evaluations are done using the Fuel Treatment Market-West model for a set of hypothetical fuel treatment scenarios, which include stand-density-index (SDI) and thin-from-below (TFB) treatment regimes at alternative...

Does This Make Me Look Fat? Peer Crowd and Peer Contributions to Adolescent Girls' Weight Control Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackey, Eleanor Race; La Greca, Annette M.

2008-01-01

Based on the Theory of Reasoned Action, this study evaluated a "socialization" model linking girls' peer crowd affiliations (e.g., Jocks, Populars) with their own weight concern, perceived peer weight norms, and weight control behaviors. An alternative "selection" model was also evaluated. Girls (N = 236; M age = 15.95 years) from diverse ethnic…

Evaluation of Two Methods for Modeling Measurement Errors When Testing Interaction Effects with Observed Composite Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsiao, Yu-Yu; Kwok, Oi-Man; Lai, Mark H. C.

2018-01-01

Path models with observed composites based on multiple items (e.g., mean or sum score of the items) are commonly used to test interaction effects. Under this practice, researchers generally assume that the observed composites are measured without errors. In this study, we reviewed and evaluated two alternative methods within the structural…

Users Manual AERCOARE Version 1.0

EPA Science Inventory

The work completed under this work assignment is a continuation of an evaluation report prepared by ENVIRON entitled “Evaluation of the COARE–AERMOD Alternative Modeling Approach for Simulation of Shell Exploratory Drilling Sources in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas” dated Decembe...

Acquisition Management for Systems-of-Systems: Exploratory Model Development and Experimentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-22

outputs of the Requirements Development and Logical Analysis processes into alternative design solutions and selects a final design solution. Decision...Analysis Provides the basis for evaluating and selecting alternatives when decisions need to be made. Implementation Yields the lowest-level system... Dependenc y Matrix 1 ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡ 011 100 110 2 ⎥ ⎥ ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎢ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡ 000 100 100 a) Example of SoS b) Model Structure for Example SoS

Reducing ambulance response times using discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Wei Lam, Sean Shao; Zhang, Zhong Cheng; Oh, Hong Choon; Ng, Yih Ying; Wah, Win; Hock Ong, Marcus Eng

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study are to develop a discrete-event simulation (DES) model for the Singapore Emergency Medical Services (EMS), and to demonstrate the utility of this DES model for the evaluation of different policy alternatives to improve ambulance response times. A DES model was developed based on retrospective emergency call data over a continuous 6-month period in Singapore. The main outcome measure is the distribution of response times. The secondary outcome measure is ambulance utilization levels based on unit hour utilization (UHU) ratios. The DES model was used to evaluate different policy options in order to improve the response times, while maintaining reasonable fleet utilization. Three policy alternatives looking at the reallocation of ambulances, the addition of new ambulances, and alternative dispatch policies were evaluated. Modifications of dispatch policy combined with the reallocation of existing ambulances were able to achieve response time performance equivalent to that of adding 10 ambulances. The median (90th percentile) response time was 7.08 minutes (12.69 minutes). Overall, this combined strategy managed to narrow the gap between the ideal and existing response time distribution by 11-13%. Furthermore, the median UHU under this combined strategy was 0.324 with an interquartile range (IQR) of 0.047 versus a median utilization of 0.285 (IQR of 0.051) resulting from the introduction of additional ambulances. Response times were shown to be improved via a more effective reallocation of ambulances and dispatch policy. More importantly, the response time improvements were achieved without a reduction in the utilization levels and additional costs associated with the addition of ambulances. We demonstrated the effective use of DES as a versatile platform to model the dynamic system complexities of Singapore's national EMS systems for the evaluation of operational strategies to improve ambulance response times.

The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals

PubMed Central

Warren, Paul A.; El‐Deredy, Wael; Howes, Andrew

2016-01-01

Abstract The attraction effect shows that adding a third alternative to a choice set can alter preference between the original two options. For over 30 years, this simple demonstration of context dependence has been taken as strong evidence against a class of parsimonious value‐maximising models that evaluate alternatives independently from one another. Significantly, however, in previous demonstrations of the attraction effect alternatives are approximately equally valuable, so there was little consequence to the decision maker irrespective of which alternative was selected. Here we vary the difference in expected value between alternatives and provide the first demonstration that, although extinguished with large differences, this theoretically important effect persists when choice between alternatives has a consequence. We use this result to clarify the implications of the attraction effect, arguing that although it robustly violates the assumptions of value‐maximising models, it does not eliminate the possibility that human decision making is optimal. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:29081595

The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

PubMed

Farmer, George D; Warren, Paul A; El-Deredy, Wael; Howes, Andrew

2017-10-01

The attraction effect shows that adding a third alternative to a choice set can alter preference between the original two options. For over 30 years, this simple demonstration of context dependence has been taken as strong evidence against a class of parsimonious value-maximising models that evaluate alternatives independently from one another. Significantly, however, in previous demonstrations of the attraction effect alternatives are approximately equally valuable, so there was little consequence to the decision maker irrespective of which alternative was selected. Here we vary the difference in expected value between alternatives and provide the first demonstration that, although extinguished with large differences, this theoretically important effect persists when choice between alternatives has a consequence. We use this result to clarify the implications of the attraction effect, arguing that although it robustly violates the assumptions of value-maximising models, it does not eliminate the possibility that human decision making is optimal. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Three Screening Alternatives for People with Diabetes with No or Early Diabetic Retinopathy

PubMed Central

Rein, David B; Wittenborn, John S; Zhang, Xinzhi; Allaire, Benjamin A; Song, Michael S; Klein, Ronald; Saaddine, Jinan B

2011-01-01

Objective To determine whether biennial eye evaluation or telemedicine screening are cost-effective alternatives to current recommendations for the estimated 10 million people aged 30–84 with diabetes but no or minimal diabetic retinopathy. Data Sources United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, American Academy of Ophthalmology Preferred Practice Patterns, Medicare Payment Schedule. Study Design Cost-effectiveness Monte Carlo simulation. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Literature review, analysis of existing surveys. Principal Findings Biennial eye evaluation was the most cost-effective treatment option when the ability to detect other eye conditions was included in the model. Telemedicine was most cost-effective when other eye conditions were not considered or when telemedicine was assumed to detect refractive error. The current annual eye evaluation recommendation was costly compared with either treatment alternative. Self-referral was most cost-effective up to a willingness to pay (WTP) of U.S.$37,600, with either biennial or annual evaluation most cost-effective at higher WTP levels. Conclusions Annual eye evaluations are costly and add little benefit compared with either plausible alternative. More research on the ability of telemedicine to detect other eye conditions is needed to determine whether it is more cost-effective than biennial eye evaluation. PMID:21492158

A behavioural and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single choice contexts there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal pre-determined strategy, irrespective of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously re-evaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of re-evaluating decision utilities, where available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously-acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes. PMID:20980595

Evaluating the Psychometric Properties of the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS) among Italian Nurses: How Many Factors Must a Researcher Consider?

PubMed Central

Loera, Barbara; Converso, Daniela; Viotti, Sara

2014-01-01

Background The Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) is the mainstream measure for burnout. However, its psychometric properties have been questioned, and alternative measurement models of the inventory have been suggested. Aims Different models for the number of items and factors of the MBI-HSS, the version of the Inventory for the Human Service sector, were tested in order to identify the most appropriate model for measuring burnout in Italy. Methods The study dataset consisted of a sample of 925 nurses. Ten alternative models of burnout were compared using confirmatory factor analysis. The psychometric properties of items and reliability of the MBI-HSS subscales were evaluated. Results Item malfunctioning may confound the MBI-HSS factor structure. The analysis confirmed the factorial structure of the MBI-HSS with a three-dimensional, 20-item assessment. Conclusions The factorial structure underlying the MBI-HSS follows Maslach’s definition when items are reduced from the original 22 to a 20-item set. Alternative models, either with fewer items or with an increased number of latent dimensions in the burnout structure, do not yield better results to justify redefining the item set or theoretically revising the syndrome construct. PMID:25501716

Quantitative structure - mesothelioma potency model ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Cancer potencies of mineral and synthetic elongated particle (EP) mixtures, including asbestos fibers, are influenced by changes in fiber dose composition, bioavailability, and biodurability in combination with relevant cytotoxic dose-response relationships. A unique and comprehensive rat intra-pleural (IP) dose characterization data set with a wide variety of EP size, shape, crystallographic, chemical, and bio-durability properties facilitated extensive statistical analyses of 50 rat IP exposure test results for evaluation of alternative dose pleural mesothelioma response models. Utilizing logistic regression, maximum likelihood evaluations of thousands of alternative dose metrics based on hundreds of individual EP dimensional variations within each test sample, four major findings emerged: (1) data for simulations of short-term EP dose changes in vivo (mild acid leaching) provide superior predictions of tumor incidence compared to non-acid leached data; (2) sum of the EP surface areas (ÓSA) from these mildly acid-leached samples provides the optimum holistic dose response model; (3) progressive removal of dose associated with very short and/or thin EPs significantly degrades resultant ÓEP or ÓSA dose-based predictive model fits, as judged by Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC); and (4) alternative, biologically plausible model adjustments provide evidence for reduced potency of EPs with length/width (aspect) ratios 80 µm. Regar

An Alternating Treatment Comparison of Minimal and Maximal Opposition Sound Selection in Turkish Phonological Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topbas, Seyhun; Unal, Ozlem

2010-01-01

A single-subject alternating treatment design in combination with a staggered multiple baseline model across subjects was implemented with two 6:0 year-old girls, monozygotic twins, who were referred to a university clinic for evaluation and treatment. The treatment programme was structured according to variants of "minimal pair contrast…

Estimating Recreation Visitation Response to Forest Management Alternatives in the Columbia River Basin

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English; Amy Horne

1996-01-01

To evaluate how forest management alternatives affect recreation visitation, managers need to know both the changes in demand for the sites being altered and the general changes in regional recreation trip production. This paper shows one way to obtain that information. Trip-generation models developed for the United States Forest Service's national assessments of...

MMA, A Computer Code for Multi-Model Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, Eileen P.; Hill, Mary C.

2007-01-01

This report documents the Multi-Model Analysis (MMA) computer code. MMA can be used to evaluate results from alternative models of a single system using the same set of observations for all models. As long as the observations, the observation weighting, and system being represented are the same, the models can differ in nearly any way imaginable. For example, they may include different processes, different simulation software, different temporal definitions (for example, steady-state and transient models could be considered), and so on. The multiple models need to be calibrated by nonlinear regression. Calibration of the individual models needs to be completed before application of MMA. MMA can be used to rank models and calculate posterior model probabilities. These can be used to (1) determine the relative importance of the characteristics embodied in the alternative models, (2) calculate model-averaged parameter estimates and predictions, and (3) quantify the uncertainty of parameter estimates and predictions in a way that integrates the variations represented by the alternative models. There is a lack of consensus on what model analysis methods are best, so MMA provides four default methods. Two are based on Kullback-Leibler information, and use the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) or AICc (second-order-bias-corrected AIC) model discrimination criteria. The other two default methods are the BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) and the KIC (Kashyap Information Criterion) model discrimination criteria. Use of the KIC criterion is equivalent to using the maximum-likelihood Bayesian model averaging (MLBMA) method. AIC, AICc, and BIC can be derived from Frequentist or Bayesian arguments. The default methods based on Kullback-Leibler information have a number of theoretical advantages, including that they tend to favor more complicated models as more data become available than do the other methods, which makes sense in many situations. Many applications of MMA will be well served by the default methods provided. To use the default methods, the only required input for MMA is a list of directories where the files for the alternate models are located. Evaluation and development of model-analysis methods are active areas of research. To facilitate exploration and innovation, MMA allows the user broad discretion to define alternatives to the default procedures. For example, MMA allows the user to (a) rank models based on model criteria defined using a wide range of provided and user-defined statistics in addition to the default AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC criteria, (b) create their own criteria using model measures available from the code, and (c) define how each model criterion is used to calculate related posterior model probabilities. The default model criteria rate models are based on model fit to observations, the number of observations and estimated parameters, and, for KIC, the Fisher information matrix. In addition, MMA allows the analysis to include an evaluation of estimated parameter values. This is accomplished by allowing the user to define unreasonable estimated parameter values or relative estimated parameter values. An example of the latter is that it may be expected that one parameter value will be less than another, as might be the case if two parameters represented the hydraulic conductivity of distinct materials such as fine and coarse sand. Models with parameter values that violate the user-defined conditions are excluded from further consideration by MMA. Ground-water models are used as examples in this report, but MMA can be used to evaluate any set of models for which the required files have been produced. MMA needs to read files from a separate directory for each alternative model considered. The needed files are produced when using the Sensitivity-Analysis or Parameter-Estimation mode of UCODE_2005, or, possibly, the equivalent capability of another program. MMA is constructed using

A School Finance Computer Simulation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boardman, Gerald R.

1974-01-01

Presents a description of the computer simulation model developed by the National Educational Finance Project for use by States in planning and evaluating alternative approaches for State support programs. Provides a general introduction to the model, a program operation overview, a sample run, and some conclusions. (Author/WM)

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Development of Electronic Load Controllers for Free-Piston Stirling Convertors Aided by Stirling Simulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Regan, Timothy F.

2004-01-01

The free-piston Stirling convertor end-to-end modeling effort at the NASA Glenn Research Center has produced a software-based test bed in which free-piston Stirling convertors can be simulated and evaluated. The simulation model includes all the components of the convertor: the Stirling cycle engine, heat source, linear alternator, controller, and load. So far, it has been used in evaluating the performance of electronic controller designs. Three different controller design concepts were simulated using the model: 1) Controllers with parasitic direct current loading. 2) Controllers with parasitic alternating current loading. 3) Controllers that maintain a reference current. The free-piston Stirling convertor is an electromechanical device that operates at resonance. It is the function of the electronic load controller to ensure that the electrical load seen by the machine is always great enough to keep the amplitude of the piston and alternator oscillation at the rated value. This is done by regulating the load on the output bus. The controller monitors the instantaneous voltage, regulating it by switching loads called parasitic loads onto the bus whenever the bus voltage is too high and removing them whenever the voltage is too low. In the first type of controller, the monitor-ing and switching are done on the direct-current (dc) bus. In the second type, the alternating current bus is used. The model allows designers to test a controller concept before investing time in hardware. The simulation code used to develop the model also offers detailed models of digital and analog electronic components so that the resulting designs are realistic enough to translate directly into hardware circuits.

Using micro-simulation to investigate the safety impacts of transit design alternatives at signalized intersections.

PubMed

Li, Lu; Persaud, Bhagwant; Shalaby, Amer

2017-03-01

This study investigates the use of crash prediction models and micro-simulation to develop an effective surrogate safety assessment measure at the intersection level. With the use of these tools, hypothetical scenarios can be developed and explored to evaluate the safety impacts of design alternatives in a controlled environment, in which factors not directly associated with the design alternatives can be fixed. Micro-simulation models are developed, calibrated, and validated. Traffic conflicts in the micro-simulation models are estimated and linked with observed crash frequency, which greatly alleviates the lengthy time needed to collect sufficient crash data for evaluating alternatives, due to the rare and infrequent nature of crash events. A set of generalized linear models with negative binomial error structure is developed to correlate the simulated conflicts with the observed crash frequency in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Crash prediction models are also developed for crashes of different impact types and for transit-involved crashes. The resulting statistical significance and the goodness-of-fit of the models suggest adequate predictive ability. Based on the established correlation between simulated conflicts and observed crashes, scenarios are developed in the micro-simulation models to investigate the safety effects of individual transit line elements by making hypothetical modifications to such elements and estimating changes in crash frequency from the resulting changes in conflicts. The findings imply that the existing transit signal priority schemes can have a negative effect on safety performance, and that the existing near-side stop positioning and streetcar transit type can be safer at their current state than if they were to be replaced by their respective counterparts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria Personnel Selection by the Modified Fuzzy VIKOR Method

PubMed Central

Alguliyev, Rasim M.; Aliguliyev, Ramiz M.; Mahmudova, Rasmiyya S.

2015-01-01

Personnel evaluation is an important process in human resource management. The multicriteria nature and the presence of both qualitative and quantitative factors make it considerably more complex. In this study, a fuzzy hybrid multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model is proposed to personnel evaluation. This model solves personnel evaluation problem in a fuzzy environment where both criteria and weights could be fuzzy sets. The triangular fuzzy numbers are used to evaluate the suitability of personnel and the approximate reasoning of linguistic values. For evaluation, we have selected five information culture criteria. The weights of the criteria were calculated using worst-case method. After that, modified fuzzy VIKOR is proposed to rank the alternatives. The outcome of this research is ranking and selecting best alternative with the help of fuzzy VIKOR and modified fuzzy VIKOR techniques. A comparative analysis of results by fuzzy VIKOR and modified fuzzy VIKOR methods is presented. Experiments showed that the proposed modified fuzzy VIKOR method has some advantages over fuzzy VIKOR method. Firstly, from a computational complexity point of view, the presented model is effective. Secondly, compared to fuzzy VIKOR method, it has high acceptable advantage compared to fuzzy VIKOR method. PMID:26516634

Teacher Evaluation in Tennessee: A Report on Year 1 Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tennessee Department of Education, 2012

2012-01-01

In the summer of 2011, the Tennessee Department of Education contracted with the National Institute for Excellence in Teaching (NIET) to provide a four-day training for all evaluators across the state. NIET trained more than 5,000 evaluators intensively in the state model (districts using alternative instruments delivered their own training).…

Evaluating and Optimizing Online Advertising: Forget the Click, but There Are Good Proxies.

PubMed

Dalessandro, Brian; Hook, Rod; Perlich, Claudia; Provost, Foster

2015-06-01

Online systems promise to improve advertisement targeting via the massive and detailed data available. However, there often is too few data on exactly the outcome of interest, such as purchases, for accurate campaign evaluation and optimization (due to low conversion rates, cold start periods, lack of instrumentation of offline purchases, and long purchase cycles). This paper presents a detailed treatment of proxy modeling, which is based on the identification of a suitable alternative (proxy) target variable when data on the true objective is in short supply (or even completely nonexistent). The paper has a two-fold contribution. First, the potential of proxy modeling is demonstrated clearly, based on a massive-scale experiment across 58 real online advertising campaigns. Second, we assess the value of different specific proxies for evaluating and optimizing online display advertising, showing striking results. The results include bad news and good news. The most commonly cited and used proxy is a click on an ad. The bad news is that across a large number of campaigns, clicks are not good proxies for evaluation or for optimization: clickers do not resemble buyers. The good news is that an alternative sort of proxy performs remarkably well: observed visits to the brand's website. Specifically, predictive models built based on brand site visits-which are much more common than purchases-do a remarkably good job of predicting which browsers will make a purchase. The practical bottom line: evaluating and optimizing campaigns using clicks seems wrongheaded; however, there is an easy and attractive alternative-use a well-chosen site-visit proxy instead.

An Evaluation of Alternatives to Nitrites and Sulfites to Inhibit the Growth of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in Meat Products

PubMed Central

Lamas, Alexandre; Miranda, José Manuel; Vázquez, Beatriz; Cepeda, Alberto; Franco, Carlos Manuel

2016-01-01

In recent years, the use of nitrites and sulfites as food preservatives has been a cause for concern due to the health problems that these additives can cause in humans. Natural products have been studied as an alternative, but most of them have hardly been applied in the food industry for technological and economic reasons. In this sense, organic salts such as sodium acetate are a good alternative due to their affordability. Thus, this study evaluated the capacity of sodium nitrite, sodium sulfite, a sodium acetate product (TQI C-6000), and chitosan to inhibit two important foodborne pathogens, Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes. The MIC of each chemical was in vitro evaluated and their antibacterial action was subsequently checked in situ using minced meat as a food model. MIC values of sodium nitrite (10,000 mg/L) and sodium sulfite (50,000 mg/L) for Salmonella enterica were higher than the values allowed by legislation (450 mg/L for sulfites and 150 mg/L for nitrites). Additionally, the sodium acetate product caused the inhibition of Salmonella enterica and Listeria at a relative low quantity. The two foodborne pathogens were inhibited in the food model with 1% of the sodium acetate product. Additionally, there were no significant differences between sodium nitrite, sodium sulfite, and sodium acetate products in the inhibition of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in the food model. Thus, products based on sodium acetate can be an alternative to traditional preservatives in food products. PMID:28231169

An Evaluation of Alternatives to Nitrites and Sulfites to Inhibit the Growth of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in Meat Products.

PubMed

Lamas, Alexandre; Miranda, José Manuel; Vázquez, Beatriz; Cepeda, Alberto; Franco, Carlos Manuel

2016-10-31

In recent years, the use of nitrites and sulfites as food preservatives has been a cause for concern due to the health problems that these additives can cause in humans. Natural products have been studied as an alternative, but most of them have hardly been applied in the food industry for technological and economic reasons. In this sense, organic salts such as sodium acetate are a good alternative due to their affordability. Thus, this study evaluated the capacity of sodium nitrite, sodium sulfite, a sodium acetate product (TQI C-6000), and chitosan to inhibit two important foodborne pathogens, Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes . The MIC of each chemical was in vitro evaluated and their antibacterial action was subsequently checked in situ using minced meat as a food model. MIC values of sodium nitrite (10,000 mg/L) and sodium sulfite (50,000 mg/L) for Salmonella enterica were higher than the values allowed by legislation (450 mg/L for sulfites and 150 mg/L for nitrites). Additionally, the sodium acetate product caused the inhibition of Salmonella enterica and Listeria at a relative low quantity. The two foodborne pathogens were inhibited in the food model with 1% of the sodium acetate product. Additionally, there were no significant differences between sodium nitrite, sodium sulfite, and sodium acetate products in the inhibition of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in the food model. Thus, products based on sodium acetate can be an alternative to traditional preservatives in food products.

Three-D Flow Analysis of the Alternate SSME HPOT TAD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kubinski, Cheryl A.

1993-01-01

This paper describes the results of numerical flow analyses performed in support of design development of the Space Shuttle Main Engine Alternate High Pressure Oxidizer Turbine Turn-around duct (TAD). The flow domain has been modeled using a 3D, Navier-Stokes, general purpose flow solver. The goal of this effort is to achieve an alternate TAD exit flow distribution which closely matches that of the baseline configuration. 3D Navier Stokes CFD analyses were employed to evaluate numerous candidate geometry modifications to the TAD flowpath in order to achieve this goal. The design iterations are summarized, as well as a description of the computational model, numerical results and the conclusions based on these calculations.

SIMYAR: a cable-yarding simulation model.

Treesearch

R.J. McGaughey; R.H. Twito

1987-01-01

A skyline-logging simulation model designed to help planners evaluate potential yarding options and alternative harvest plans is presented. The model, called SIMYAR, uses information about the timber stand, yarding equipment, and unit geometry to estimate yarding co stand productivity for a particular operation. The costs of felling, bucking, loading, and hauling are...

Retrenchment in Education: Hierarchical Decision Models for Instructional Program Termination, District Consolidations and School Closures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wholeben, Brent Edward

A number of key issues facing elementary, secondary, and postsecondary educational administrators during retrenchment require a hierarchical decision-modeling approach. This paper identifies and discusses the use of a hierarchical multiple-alternatives modeling formulation (computer-based) that compares and evaluates a group of solution…

A Memory-Based Model of Hick's Law

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Darryl W.; Anderson, John R.

2011-01-01

We propose and evaluate a memory-based model of Hick's law, the approximately linear increase in choice reaction time with the logarithm of set size (the number of stimulus-response alternatives). According to the model, Hick's law reflects a combination of associative interference during retrieval from declarative memory and occasional savings…

Student Teachers' Team Teaching during Field Experiences: An Evaluation by Their Mentors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simons, Mathea; Baeten, Marlies

2016-01-01

Since collaboration within schools gains importance, teacher educators are looking for alternative models of field experience inspired by collaborative learning. Team teaching is such a model. This study explores two team teaching models (parallel and sequential teaching) by investigating the mentors' perspective. Semi-structured interviews were…

Developing a Hierarchical Decision Model to Evaluate Nuclear Power Plant Alternative Siting Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingga, Marwan Mossa

A strong trend of returning to nuclear power is evident in different places in the world. Forty-five countries are planning to add nuclear power to their grids and more than 66 nuclear power plants are under construction. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity and steam need to improve safety to become more acceptable to governments and the public. One novel practical solution to increase nuclear power plants' safety factor is to build them away from urban areas, such as offshore or underground. To date, Land-Based siting is the dominant option for siting all commercial operational nuclear power plants. However, the literature reveals several options for building nuclear power plants in safer sitings than Land-Based sitings. The alternatives are several and each has advantages and disadvantages, and it is difficult to distinguish among them and choose the best for a specific project. In this research, we recall the old idea of using the alternatives of offshore and underground sitings for new nuclear power plants and propose a tool to help in choosing the best siting technology. This research involved the development of a decision model for evaluating several potential nuclear power plant siting technologies, both those that are currently available and future ones. The decision model was developed based on the Hierarchical Decision Modeling (HDM) methodology. The model considers five major dimensions, social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP), and their related criteria and sub-criteria. The model was designed and developed by the author, and its elements' validation and evaluation were done by a large number of experts in the field of nuclear energy. The decision model was applied in evaluating five potential siting technologies and ranked the Natural Island as the best in comparison to Land-Based, Floating Plant, Artificial Island, and Semi-Embedded plant.

Flight simulator requirements for airline transport pilot training - An evaluation of motion system design alternatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, A. T.; Bussolari, S. R.

1986-01-01

The effect of motion platform systems on pilot behavior is considered with emphasis placed on civil aviation applications. A dynamic model for human spatial orientation based on the physiological structure and function of the human vestibular system is presented. Motion platform alternatives were evaluated on the basis of the following motion platform conditions: motion with six degrees-of-freedom required for Phase II simulators and two limited motion conditions. Consideration was given to engine flameout, airwork, and approach and landing scenarios.

Parametric evaluation of the cost effectiveness of Shuttle payload vibroacoustic test plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahle, C. V.; Gongloff, H. R.; Keegan, W. B.; Young, J. P.

1978-01-01

Consideration is given to alternate vibroacoustic test plans for sortie and free flyer Shuttle payloads. Statistical decision models for nine test plans provide a viable method of evaluating the cost effectiveness of alternate vibroacoustic test plans and the associated test levels. The methodology is a major step toward the development of a useful tool for the quantitative tailoring of vibroacoustic test programs to sortie and free flyer payloads. A broader application of the methodology is now possible by the use of the OCTAVE computer code.

Quantified Choice of Root-Mean-Square Errors of Approximation for Evaluation and Power Analysis of Small Differences between Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Libo; Bentler, Peter M.

2011-01-01

MacCallum, Browne, and Cai (2006) proposed a new framework for evaluation and power analysis of small differences between nested structural equation models (SEMs). In their framework, the null and alternative hypotheses for testing a small difference in fit and its related power analyses were defined by some chosen root-mean-square error of…

Evaluating forest product potential as part of planning ecological restoration treatments on forested landscapes

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Ryan Singleton; Douglas A. Maguire

2007-01-01

As landscape-scale assessments and modeling become a more common method for evaluating alternatives in integrated resource management, new techniques are needed to display and evaluate outcomes for large numbers of stands over long periods. In this proof of concept, we evaluate the potential to provide financial support for silvicultural treatments by selling timber...

The Preliminary Design of a Standardized Spacecraft Bus for Small Tactical Satellites (Volume 1)

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-11-01

characteristics, and not detailed design recommendations, the team decided to avoid modeling the interaction among the objective attributes. 47 5.6 Flexibility of...in the Modsat computer model are necessarily "generic" in nature to provide both flexibility in design evaluation and a foundation on which more...the methods employed during the study, the scope of the problem, the value system used to evaluate alternatives, tradeoff studies performed, modeling

Testing alternative ground water models using cross-validation and other methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Perona, P.; Burlando, P.

2007-01-01

Many methods can be used to test alternative ground water models. Of concern in this work are methods able to (1) rank alternative models (also called model discrimination) and (2) identify observations important to parameter estimates and predictions (equivalent to the purpose served by some types of sensitivity analysis). Some of the measures investigated are computationally efficient; others are computationally demanding. The latter are generally needed to account for model nonlinearity. The efficient model discrimination methods investigated include the information criteria: the corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and generalized cross-validation. The efficient sensitivity analysis measures used are dimensionless scaled sensitivity (DSS), composite scaled sensitivity, and parameter correlation coefficient (PCC); the other statistics are DFBETAS, Cook's D, and observation-prediction statistic. Acronyms are explained in the introduction. Cross-validation (CV) is a computationally intensive nonlinear method that is used for both model discrimination and sensitivity analysis. The methods are tested using up to five alternative parsimoniously constructed models of the ground water system of the Maggia Valley in southern Switzerland. The alternative models differ in their representation of hydraulic conductivity. A new method for graphically representing CV and sensitivity analysis results for complex models is presented and used to evaluate the utility of the efficient statistics. The results indicate that for model selection, the information criteria produce similar results at much smaller computational cost than CV. For identifying important observations, the only obviously inferior linear measure is DSS; the poor performance was expected because DSS does not include the effects of parameter correlation and PCC reveals large parameter correlations. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects.

PubMed

Hamed, Maged; Effat, Waleed

2007-08-01

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.

Impact of alternative harvesting technologies on thinning entry and optimal rotation age for eastern hardwoods

Treesearch

Chris B. LeDoux

2007-01-01

A complete system simulation model is used to integrate alternative logging technologies, stand data, market prices, transportation costs, and economic concerns in a longterm continuous manner to evaluate thinning entry timing and optimal rotation age. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) stand data for the oak/hickory forest type and time and motion study data for 70,...

Evaluating alternative prescribed burning policies to reduce net economic damages from wildfire

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; John M. Pye

2007-01-01

We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on...

impacts of alternative farm policies on rural communities

Treesearch

J. Michael Bowker; James W. Richardson

1989-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe an LP/IO model for evaluating the economic impacts of alternative farm policies on rural communities and demonstrate its capabilities by analyzing the impacts of three farm policies on a rural community in Texas. Results indicate that in the noncrop sector, two groups of industries are most affected by farm policy. The first...

Genomic Prediction Accounting for Genotype by Environment Interaction Offers an Effective Framework for Breeding Simultaneously for Adaptation to an Abiotic Stress and Performance Under Normal Cropping Conditions in Rice.

PubMed

Ben Hassen, Manel; Bartholomé, Jérôme; Valè, Giampiero; Cao, Tuong-Vi; Ahmadi, Nourollah

2018-05-09

Developing rice varieties adapted to alternate wetting and drying water management is crucial for the sustainability of irrigated rice cropping systems. Here we report the first study exploring the feasibility of breeding rice for adaptation to alternate wetting and drying using genomic prediction methods that account for genotype by environment interactions. Two breeding populations (a reference panel of 284 accessions and a progeny population of 97 advanced lines) were evaluated under alternate wetting and drying and continuous flooding management systems. The predictive ability of genomic prediction for response variables (index of relative performance and the slope of the joint regression) and for multi-environment genomic prediction models were compared. For the three traits considered (days to flowering, panicle weight and nitrogen-balance index), significant genotype by environment interactions were observed in both populations. In cross validation, predictive ability for the index was on average lower (0.31) than that of the slope of the joint regression (0.64) whatever the trait considered. Similar results were found for progeny validation. Both cross-validation and progeny validation experiments showed that the performance of multi-environment models predicting unobserved phenotypes of untested entrees was similar to the performance of single environment models with differences in predictive ability ranging from -6% to 4% depending on the trait and on the statistical model concerned. The predictive ability of multi-environment models predicting unobserved phenotypes of entrees evaluated under both water management systems outperformed single environment models by an average of 30%. Practical implications for breeding rice for adaptation to alternate wetting and drying system are discussed. Copyright © 2018, G3: Genes, Genomes, Genetics.

Planning for Capital Reinvestment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biedenweg, Frederick; Weisburg-Swanson, Lynda; Gardner, Catherine

1998-01-01

Describes and evaluates four alternatives for planning and budgeting for capital reinvestment for college and university facilities: physical plant auditing; a depreciation-based approach; percentage of current replacement value; and facility subsystem modeling, or life-cycle modeling. Each has advantages and limitations in budgeting for and…

The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

Using a food web model to inform the design of river restoration—An example at the Barkley Bear Segment, Methow River, north-central Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benjamin, Joseph R.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Dombroski, Daniel

2018-01-29

With the decline of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss), habitat restoration actions in freshwater tributaries have been implemented to improve conditions for juveniles. Typically, physical (for example, hydrologic and engineering) based models are used to design restoration alternatives with the assumption that biological responses will be improved with changes to the physical habitat. Biological models rarely are used. Here, we describe simulations of a food web model, the Aquatic Trophic Productivity (ATP) model, to aid in the design of a restoration project in the Methow River, north-central Washington. The ATP model mechanistically links environmental conditions of the stream to the dynamics of river food webs, and can be used to simulate how alternative river restoration designs influence the potential for river reaches to sustain fish production. Four restoration design alternatives were identified that encompassed varying levels of side channel and floodplain reconnection and large wood addition. Our model simulations suggest that design alternatives focused on reconnecting side channels and the adjacent floodplain may provide the greatest increase in fish capacity. These results were robust to a range of discharge and thermal regimes that naturally occur in the Methow River. Our results suggest that biological models, such as the ATP model, can be used during the restoration planning phase to increase the effectiveness of restoration actions. Moreover, the use of multiple modeling efforts, both physical and biological, when evaluating restoration design alternatives provides a better understanding of the potential outcome of restoration actions.

The forest and agricultural sector optimization model (FASOM): model structure and policy applications.

Treesearch

Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; J.M. Callaway; Bruce A. McCarl; Steven M. Winnett

1996-01-01

The Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) is a dynamic, nonlinear programming model of the forest and agricultural sectors in the United States. The FASOM model initially was developed to evaluate welfare and market impacts of alternative policies for sequestering carbon in trees but also has been applied to a wider range of forest and agricultural...

Evaluating cardiac risk: exposure response analysis in early clinical drug development.

PubMed

Grenier, Julie; Paglialunga, Sabina; Morimoto, Bruce H; Lester, Robert M

2018-01-01

The assessment of a drug's cardiac liability has undergone considerable metamorphosis by regulators since International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirement for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use E14 guideline was introduced in 2005. Drug developers now have a choice in how proarrhythmia risk can be evaluated; the options include a dedicated thorough QT (TQT) study or exposure response (ER) modeling of intensive electrocardiogram (ECG) captured in early clinical development. The alternative approach of ER modeling was incorporated into a guidance document in 2015 as a primary analysis tool which could be utilized in early phase dose escalation studies as an option to perform a dedicated TQT trial. This review will describe the current state of ER modeling of intensive ECG data collected during early clinical drug development; the requirements with regard to the use of a positive control; and address the challenges and opportunities of this alternative approach to assessing QT liability.

41 CFR 102-80.120 - What analytical and empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? Analytical and empirical tools, including fire models and grading schedules such as the Fire Safety Evaluation System (Alternative Approaches to Life... empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? 102-80.120 Section 102-80...

41 CFR 102-80.120 - What analytical and empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? Analytical and empirical tools, including fire models and grading schedules such as the Fire Safety Evaluation System (Alternative Approaches to Life... empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? 102-80.120 Section 102-80...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoeschele, Marc; Weitzel, Elizabeth; Backman, Christine

This project completed a modeling evaluation of a hybrid gas water heater that combines a reduced capacity tankless unit with a downsized storage tank. This product would meet a significant market need by providing a higher efficiency gas water heater solution for retrofit applications while maintaining compatibility with the 1/2 inch gas lines and standard B vents found in most homes. The TRNSYS simulation tool was used to model a base case 0.60 EF atmospheric gas storage water, a 0.82 EF non-condensing gas tankless water heater, an existing (high capacity) hybrid unit on the market, and an alternative hybrid unitmore » with lower storage volume and reduced gas input requirements. Simulations were completed under a 'peak day' sizing scenario with 183 gpd hot water loads in a Minnesota winter climate case. Full-year simulations were then completed in three climates (ranging from Phoenix to Minneapolis) for three hot water load scenarios (36, 57, and 96 gpd). Model projections indicate that the alternative hybrid offers an average 4.5% efficiency improvement relative to the 0.60 EF gas storage unit across all scenarios modeled. The alternative hybrid water heater evaluated does show promise, but the current low cost of natural gas across much of the country and the relatively small incremental efficiency improvement poses challenges in initially building a market demand for the product.« less

A Roadmap for the Development of Alternative (Non-Animal) Methods for Systemic Toxicity Testing

EPA Science Inventory

Systemic toxicity testing forms the cornerstone for the safety evaluation of substances. Pressures to move from traditional animal models to novel technologies arise from various concerns, including: the need to evaluate large numbers of previously untested chemicals and new prod...

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Pohlmann, Karl F; Chapman, Jenny B; Pohll, Greg M; Reeves, Donald M

2010-01-01

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.

Evaluation of 2D shallow-water model for spillway flow with a complex geometry

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although the two-dimensional (2D) shallow water model is formulated based on several assumptions such as hydrostatic pressure distribution and vertical velocity is negligible, as a simple alternative to the complex 3D model, it has been used to compute water flows in which these assumptions may be ...

Application of a Multidimensional Nested Logit Model to Multiple-Choice Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk

2012-01-01

Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…

Do Different Mental Models Influence Cybersecurity Behavior? Evaluations via Statistical Reasoning Performance.

PubMed

Brase, Gary L; Vasserman, Eugene Y; Hsu, William

2017-01-01

Cybersecurity research often describes people as understanding internet security in terms of metaphorical mental models (e.g., disease risk, physical security risk, or criminal behavior risk). However, little research has directly evaluated if this is an accurate or productive framework. To assess this question, two experiments asked participants to respond to a statistical reasoning task framed in one of four different contexts (cybersecurity, plus the above alternative models). Each context was also presented using either percentages or natural frequencies, and these tasks were followed by a behavioral likelihood rating. As in previous research, consistent use of natural frequencies promoted correct Bayesian reasoning. There was little indication, however, that any of the alternative mental models generated consistently better understanding or reasoning over the actual cybersecurity context. There was some evidence that different models had some effects on patterns of responses, including the behavioral likelihood ratings, but these effects were small, as compared to the effect of the numerical format manipulation. This points to a need to improve the content of actual internet security warnings, rather than working to change the models users have of warnings.

Do Different Mental Models Influence Cybersecurity Behavior? Evaluations via Statistical Reasoning Performance

PubMed Central

Brase, Gary L.; Vasserman, Eugene Y.; Hsu, William

2017-01-01

Cybersecurity research often describes people as understanding internet security in terms of metaphorical mental models (e.g., disease risk, physical security risk, or criminal behavior risk). However, little research has directly evaluated if this is an accurate or productive framework. To assess this question, two experiments asked participants to respond to a statistical reasoning task framed in one of four different contexts (cybersecurity, plus the above alternative models). Each context was also presented using either percentages or natural frequencies, and these tasks were followed by a behavioral likelihood rating. As in previous research, consistent use of natural frequencies promoted correct Bayesian reasoning. There was little indication, however, that any of the alternative mental models generated consistently better understanding or reasoning over the actual cybersecurity context. There was some evidence that different models had some effects on patterns of responses, including the behavioral likelihood ratings, but these effects were small, as compared to the effect of the numerical format manipulation. This points to a need to improve the content of actual internet security warnings, rather than working to change the models users have of warnings. PMID:29163304

Characterizing dissolved organic matter using PARAFAC modeling of fluorescence spectroscopy: a comparison of two models

Treesearch

Jason B. Fellman; Mathew P. Miller; Rose M. Cory; David V. D' Amore; Dan White

2009-01-01

We evaluated whether fitting fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) to a previously validated PARAFAC model is an acceptable alternative to building an original model. To do this, we built a l0-component model using 307 EEMscollected from southeast Alaskan soil and streamwater. All 307 EEMs were then fit to the existing model (CM) presented in Cory and...

Representing Carbon Capture and Storage in MARKAL EPAUS9r16a

EPA Science Inventory

Energy system models are used to evaluate the energy and environmental implications of alternative pathways for producing and using energy. Many such models include representations of the costs and capacities of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In this presentation, Dan Lo...

The Multiple Component Alternative for Gifted Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swassing, Ray

1984-01-01

The Multiple Component Model (MCM) of gifted education includes instruction which may overlap in literature, history, art, enrichment, languages, science, physics, math, music, and dance. The model rests on multifactored identification and requires systematic development and selection of components with ongoing feedback and evaluation. (CL)

Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans

PubMed Central

Xavier, Alencar; Muir, William M.; Rainey, Katy Martin

2016-01-01

Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr). We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set. PMID:27317786

Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity.

PubMed

Morais, Sérgio Alberto; Delerue-Matos, Cristina; Gabarrell, Xavier

2013-03-15

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of selected in silico models for the assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Skin sensitization remains an important endpoint for consumers, manufacturers and regulators. Although the development of alternative approaches to assess skin sensitization potential has been extremely active over many years, the implication of regulations such as REACH and the Cosmetics Directive in EU has provided a much stronger impetus to actualize this research into practical tools for decision making. Thus there has been considerable focus on the development, evaluation, and integration of alternative approaches for skin sensitization hazard and risk assessment. This includes in silico approaches such as (Q)SARs and expert systems. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a selection of in silico models and then to explore whether combining those models led to an improvement in accuracy. A dataset of 473 substances that had been tested in the local lymph node assay (LLNA) was compiled. This comprised 295 sensitizers and 178 non-sensitizers. Four freely available models were identified - 2 statistical models VEGA and MultiCASE model A33 for skin sensitization (MCASE A33) from the Danish National Food Institute and two mechanistic models Toxtree’s Skin sensitization Reaction domains (Toxtree SS Rxn domains) and the OASIS v1.3 protein binding alerts for skin sensitization from the OECD Toolbox (OASIS). VEGA and MCASE A33 aim to predict sensitization as a binary score whereas the mechanistic models identified reaction domains or structura

Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Asaria, Miqdad; Griffin, Susan; Cookson, Richard

2015-01-01

Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) is a framework for incorporating health inequality concerns into the economic evaluation of health sector interventions. In this tutorial, we describe the technical details of how to conduct DCEA, using an illustrative example comparing alternative ways of implementing the National Health Service (NHS) Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP). The 2 key stages in DCEA are 1) modeling social distributions of health associated with different interventions, and 2) evaluating social distributions of health with respect to the dual objectives of improving total population health and reducing unfair health inequality. As well as describing the technical methods used, we also identify the data requirements and the social value judgments that have to be made. Finally, we demonstrate the use of sensitivity analyses to explore the impacts of alternative modeling assumptions and social value judgments. PMID:25908564

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Using a Novel Alternative to Drug Choice in a Human Laboratory Model of a Cocaine Binge: A Game of Chance

PubMed Central

Vosburg, Suzanne K.; Haney, Margaret; Rubin, Eric; Foltin, Richard W.

2010-01-01

Human laboratory studies have shown that, once initiated, cocaine self-administration is difficult to disrupt using non-drug alternatives. This inpatient study examined whether binge self-administration of cocaine could be altered by an immediate, non-drug reinforcer. Ten cocaine-dependent participants completed 5 consecutive laboratory session days with 2 sessions per day (a model binge), 9 days where cocaine was not available, and subsequent 2 laboratory session days where cocaine was again available (a second model binge). In each laboratory session, participants could choose to either self-administer smoked cocaine or play a game of chance by drawing a pre-determined number of balls from a bingo wheel. Balls were worth monetary amounts from $0 – $20. Participants’ choice to smoke cocaine varied as a function of number of balls drawn. Thus, this game of chance served as an alternative reinforcer to smoking cocaine. Choice varied lawfully as a function of the number of opportunities to earn money indicating that an immediate behavioral alternative can reduce cocaine self-administration after initiation of use. The current model could be used to evaluate whether behavioral and pharmacological manipulations shift choice from cocaine to a non-drug alternative. PMID:20346597

Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Treesearch

Yangjian Zhang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Jian Yang; Brian J. Palik

2011-01-01

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year...

Evaluation of the Sustainability and Clinical Outcome of Alternatives for Families: A Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (AF-CBT) in a Child Protection Center

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolko, David J.; Iselin, Anne-Marie R.; Gully, Kevin J.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the sustainability and outcome of Alternatives for Families: A Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (AF-CBT) as delivered by practitioners in a community-based child protection program who had received training in the model several years earlier. Formerly described as Abuse-Focused CBT, AF-CBT is an evidence-based treatment (EBT) for…

Evaluating the Role of Intermediaries in the Electronic Value Chain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janssen, Marijn; Sol, Henk G.

2000-01-01

Presents a business engineering methodology that supports the identification of electronic intermediary roles in the electronic value chain. The goal of this methodology is to give stakeholders insight into their current, and possible alternative, situations by means of visualization, to evaluate the added value of business models using…

Cultural Exchange: Evaluating an Alternative Model in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeLong, Marilyn; Geum, KeySook; Gage, Kelly; McKinney, Ellen; Medvedev, Katalin; Park, Juyeon

2011-01-01

A fundamental and contemporary issue in higher education is how to encourage global awareness, professional development, and accountability within constraints of curriculum and scarce resources. This is an evaluation of student experiences with a 1 1/2-year cross-cultural partnership that included a team project, public presentations,…

Evaluation of electric vehicles as an alternative for work-trip and limited business commutes final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

This report presents the results of a four-year evaluation of an electric subcompact car. The principal finding was that the 1995-model electric car must be viewed in two contexts, the body/chassis/drive train and the battery/recharge system. Firstly...

Examining the DSM-5 alternative model of personality disorders operationalization of obsessive-compulsive personality disorder in a mental health sample.

PubMed

Liggett, Jacqueline; Sellbom, Martin

2018-06-21

The current study evaluated the continuity between the diagnostic operationalizations of obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, both as traditionally operationalized and from the perspective of the alternative model of personality disorders. Using both self-report and informant measures, the study had the following four aims: (a) to examine the extent to which self-report and informant data correspond, (b) to investigate whether both self-report and informant measures of the alternative model of OCPD can predict traditional OCPD, (c) to determine if any traits additional to those proposed in the alternative model of OCPD can predict traditional OCPD, and (d) to investigate whether a measure of OCPD-specific impairment is better at predicting traditional OCPD than are measures of general impairment in personality functioning. A mental health sample of 214 participants was recruited and administered measures of both the traditional and alternative models of OCPD. Self-report data moderately corresponded with informant data, which is consistent with the literature. Results further confirmed rigid perfectionism as the core trait of OCPD. Perseveration and workaholism were also associated with OCPD. Hostility was identified as a trait deserving further research. A measure of OCPD-specific impairment demonstrated its ability to incrementally predict OCPD over general measures of impairment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques.

PubMed

Chung, Eun-Sung; Lee, Kil Seong

2009-03-01

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.

Testing Small Variance Priors Using Prior-Posterior Predictive p Values.

PubMed

Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-04-03

Muthén and Asparouhov (2012) propose to evaluate model fit in structural equation models based on approximate (using small variance priors) instead of exact equality of (combinations of) parameters to zero. This is an important development that adequately addresses Cohen's (1994) The Earth is Round (p < .05), which stresses that point null-hypotheses are so precise that small and irrelevant differences from the null-hypothesis may lead to their rejection. It is tempting to evaluate small variance priors using readily available approaches like the posterior predictive p value and the DIC. However, as will be shown, both are not suited for the evaluation of models based on small variance priors. In this article, a well behaving alternative, the prior-posterior predictive p value, will be introduced. It will be shown that it is consistent, the distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses will be elaborated, and it will be applied to testing whether the difference between 2 means and the size of a correlation are relevantly different from zero. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Using the Landlab toolkit to evaluate and compare alternative geomorphic and hydrologic model formulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, G. E.; Adams, J. M.; Doty, S. G.; Gasparini, N. M.; Hill, M. C.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Hutton, E.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2016-12-01

Developing a better understanding of catchment hydrology and geomorphology ideally involves quantitative hypothesis testing. Often one seeks to identify the simplest mathematical and/or computational model that accounts for the essential dynamics in the system of interest. Development of alternative hypotheses involves testing and comparing alternative formulations, but the process of comparison and evaluation is made challenging by the rigid nature of many computational models, which are often built around a single assumed set of equations. Here we review a software framework for two-dimensional computational modeling that facilitates the creation, testing, and comparison of surface-dynamics models. Landlab is essentially a Python-language software library. Its gridding module allows for easy generation of a structured (raster, hex) or unstructured (Voronoi-Delaunay) mesh, with the capability to attach data arrays to particular types of element. Landlab includes functions that implement common numerical operations, such as gradient calculation and summation of fluxes within grid cells. Landlab also includes a collection of process components, which are encapsulated pieces of software that implement a numerical calculation of a particular process. Examples include downslope flow routing over topography, shallow-water hydrodynamics, stream erosion, and sediment transport on hillslopes. Individual components share a common grid and data arrays, and they can be coupled through the use of a simple Python script. We illustrate Landlab's capabilities with a case study of Holocene landscape development in the northeastern US, in which we seek to identify a collection of model components that can account for the formation of a series of incised canyons that have that developed since the Laurentide ice sheet last retreated. We compare sets of model ingredients related to (1) catchment hydrologic response, (2) hillslope evolution, and (3) stream channel and gully incision. The case-study example demonstrates the value of exploring multiple working hypotheses, in the form of multiple alternative model components.

Alternatives to In Vivo Draize Rabbit Eye and Skin Irritation Tests with a Focus on 3D Reconstructed Human Cornea-Like Epithelium and Epidermis Models

PubMed Central

Lee, Miri; Hwang, Jee-Hyun; Lim, Kyung-Min

2017-01-01

Human eyes and skin are frequently exposed to chemicals accidentally or on purpose due to their external location. Therefore, chemicals are required to undergo the evaluation of the ocular and dermal irritancy for their safe handling and use before release into the market. Draize rabbit eye and skin irritation test developed in 1944, has been a gold standard test which was enlisted as OECD TG 404 and OECD TG 405 but it has been criticized with respect to animal welfare due to invasive and cruel procedure. To replace it, diverse alternatives have been developed: (i) For Draize eye irritation test, organotypic assay, in vitro cytotoxicity-based method, in chemico tests, in silico prediction model, and 3D reconstructed human cornea-like epithelium (RhCE); (ii) For Draize skin irritation test, in vitro cytotoxicity-based cell model, and 3D reconstructed human epidermis models (RhE). Of these, RhCE and RhE models are getting spotlight as a promising alternative with a wide applicability domain covering cosmetics and personal care products. In this review, we overviewed the current alternatives to Draize test with a focus on 3D human epithelium models to provide an insight into advancing and widening their utility. PMID:28744350

Impact of Parameter Uncertainty Assessment of Critical SWAT Output Simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed models are increasingly being utilized to evaluate alternate management scenarios for improving water quality. The concern for using these tools in extensive programs such as the National Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program is that the certainty of model results and efficacy of managem...

Development of a Value Inquiry Model in Biology Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeong, Eun-Young; Kim, Young-Soo

2000-01-01

Points out the rapid advances in biology, increasing bioethical issues, and how students need to make rational decisions. Introduces a value inquiry model development that includes identifying and clarifying value problems; understanding biological knowledge related to conflict situations; considering, selecting, and evaluating each alternative;…

Computer-Mediated Intersensory Learning Model for Students with Learning Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seok, Soonhwa; DaCosta, Boaventura; Kinsell, Carolyn; Poggio, John C.; Meyen, Edward L.

2010-01-01

This article proposes a computer-mediated intersensory learning model as an alternative to traditional instructional approaches for students with learning disabilities (LDs) in the inclusive classroom. Predominant practices of classroom inclusion today reflect the six principles of zero reject, nondiscriminatory evaluation, appropriate education,…

Design and Field Testing of a Systematic Procedure for Evaluating Vocational Programs. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Portland Public Schools, OR.

The purpose of a project was to design and field-test a system for evaluating the adequacy of the vocational curriculum utilized by the Vocational Village, an alternative school for the training of individuals who have experienced failure in other educational settings. Focus was on the development of an evaluation model which will assess the…

HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A water quantity and quality modeling system to evaluate the impacts of management alternatives, pollution control scenarios, and climate change scenarios on the quantity and quality of water at a national scale.

Redesign of a university hospital preanesthesia evaluation clinic using a queuing theory approach.

PubMed

Zonderland, Maartje E; Boer, Fredrik; Boucherie, Richard J; de Roode, Annemiek; van Kleef, Jack W

2009-11-01

Changes in patient length of stay (the duration of 1 clinic visit) as a result of the introduction of an electronic patient file system forced an anesthesia department to change its outpatient clinic organization. In this study, we sought to demonstrate how the involvement of essential employees combined with mathematical techniques to support the decision-making process resulted in a successful intervention. The setting is the preanesthesia evaluation clinic (PAC) of a university hospital, where patients consult several medical professionals, either by walk-in or appointment. Queuing theory was used to model the initial set-up of the clinic, and later to model possible alternative designs. With the queuing model, possible improvements in efficiency could be investigated. Inputs to the model were patient arrival rates and expected service times with clinic employees, collected from the clinic's logging system and by observation. The performance measures calculated with the model were patient length of stay and employee utilization rate. Supported by the model outcomes, a working group consisting of representatives of all clinic employees decided whether the initial design should be maintained or an intervention was needed. The queuing model predicted that 3 of the proposed alternatives would result in better performance. Key points in the intervention were the rescheduling of appointments and the reallocation of tasks. The intervention resulted in a shortening of the time the anesthesiologist needed to decide upon approving the patient for surgery. Patient arrivals increased sharply over 1 yr by more than 16%; however, patient length of stay at the clinic remained essentially unchanged. If the initial set-up of the clinic would have been maintained, the patient length of stay would have increased dramatically. Queuing theory provides robust methods to evaluate alternative designs for the organization of PACs. In this article, we show that queuing modeling is an adequate approach for redesigning processes in PACs.

Distributed capillary adiabatic tissue homogeneity model in parametric multi-channel blind AIF estimation using DCE-MRI.

PubMed

Kratochvíla, Jiří; Jiřík, Radovan; Bartoš, Michal; Standara, Michal; Starčuk, Zenon; Taxt, Torfinn

2016-03-01

One of the main challenges in quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI is estimation of the arterial input function (AIF). Usually, the signal from a single artery (ignoring contrast dispersion, partial volume effects and flow artifacts) or a population average of such signals (also ignoring variability between patients) is used. Multi-channel blind deconvolution is an alternative approach avoiding most of these problems. The AIF is estimated directly from the measured tracer concentration curves in several tissues. This contribution extends the published methods of multi-channel blind deconvolution by applying a more realistic model of the impulse residue function, the distributed capillary adiabatic tissue homogeneity model (DCATH). In addition, an alternative AIF model is used and several AIF-scaling methods are tested. The proposed method is evaluated on synthetic data with respect to the number of tissue regions and to the signal-to-noise ratio. Evaluation on clinical data (renal cell carcinoma patients before and after the beginning of the treatment) gave consistent results. An initial evaluation on clinical data indicates more reliable and less noise sensitive perfusion parameter estimates. Blind multi-channel deconvolution using the DCATH model might be a method of choice for AIF estimation in a clinical setup. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of SWAT for estimating ET in irrigated and dryland cropping systems in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic models such as SWAT are used extensively for predicting water availability and water quality responses to alternative management practices. Modeling results have been used by regulatory agencies for developing remedial measures for impaired water bodies and for water planning purposes. Ho...

What's a Parent to Do? Coping with Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Trudy; And Others

This instructional packet is one of a series of five modules that emphasize a systematic decision-making model for common problematic situations. The steps of the model are identifying the problem, gathering information, developing and assessing alternatives, implementing a solution, and evaluating and modifying the solution. Aimed at adult basic…

Models To Improve Service Delivery. Chapter 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1996

This collection of papers presented at a 1996 conference on children's mental health focuses on models to improve service delivery. Papers have the following titles and authors: (1) "Empirical Evaluation of an Alternative to Hospitalization for Youth Presenting Psychiatric Emergencies" (Scott W. Henggeler); (2) "An Experimental Study of the…

What Is the Reference? An Examination of Alternatives to the Reference Sources Used in IES TM-30-15

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Royer, Michael P.

A study was undertaken to document the role of the reference illuminant in the IES TM-30-15 method for evaluating color rendition. TM-30-15 relies on a relative reference scheme; that is, the reference illuminant and test source always have the same correlated color temperature (CCT). The reference illuminant is a Planckian radiator, model of daylight, or combination of those two, depending on the exact CCT of the test source. Three alternative reference schemes were considered: 1) either using all Planckian radiators or all daylight models; 2) using only one of ten possible illuminants (Planckian, daylight, or equal energy), regardless of themore » CCT of the test source; 3) using an off-Planckian reference illuminant (i.e., a source with a negative Duv). No reference scheme is inherently superior to another, with differences in metric values largely a result of small differences in gamut shape of the reference alternatives. While using any of the alternative schemes is more reasonable in the TM-30-15 evaluation framework than it was with the CIE CRI framework, the differences still ultimately manifest only as changes in interpretation of the results. References are employed in color rendering measures to provide a familiar point of comparison, not to establish an ideal source.« less

Assessment of human epidermal model LabCyte EPI-MODEL for in vitro skin irritation testing according to European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM)-validated protocol.

PubMed

Katoh, Masakazu; Hamajima, Fumiyasu; Ogasawara, Takahiro; Hata, Ken-Ichiro

2009-06-01

A validation study of an in vitro skin irritation testing method using a reconstructed human skin model has been conducted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM), and a protocol using EpiSkin (SkinEthic, France) has been approved. The structural and performance criteria of skin models for testing are defined in the ECVAM Performance Standards announced along with the approval. We have performed several evaluations of the new reconstructed human epidermal model LabCyte EPI-MODEL, and confirmed that it is applicable to skin irritation testing as defined in the ECVAM Performance Standards. We selected 19 materials (nine irritants and ten non-irritants) available in Japan as test chemicals among the 20 reference chemicals described in the ECVAM Performance Standard. A test chemical was applied to the surface of the LabCyte EPI-MODEL for 15 min, after which it was completely removed and the model then post-incubated for 42 hr. Cell v iability was measured by MTT assay and skin irritancy of the test chemical evaluated. In addition, interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1alpha) concentration in the culture supernatant after post-incubation was measured to provide a complementary evaluation of skin irritation. Evaluation of the 19 test chemicals resulted in 79% accuracy, 78% sensitivity and 80% specificity, confirming that the in vitro skin irritancy of the LabCyte EPI-MODEL correlates highly with in vivo skin irritation. These results suggest that LabCyte EPI-MODEL is applicable to the skin irritation testing protocol set out in the ECVAM Performance Standards.

Development Of Educational Programs In Renewable And Alternative Energy Processing: The Case Of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svirina, Anna; Shindor, Olga; Tatmyshevsky, Konstantin

2014-12-01

The paper deals with the main problems of Russian energy system development that proves necessary to provide educational programs in the field of renewable and alternative energy. In the paper the process of curricula development and defining teaching techniques on the basis of expert opinion evaluation is defined, and the competence model for renewable and alternative energy processing master students is suggested. On the basis of a distributed questionnaire and in-depth interviews, the data for statistical analysis was obtained. On the basis of this data, an optimization of curricula structure was performed, and three models of a structure for optimizing teaching techniques were developed. The suggested educational program structure which was adopted by employers is presented in the paper. The findings include quantitatively estimated importance of systemic thinking and professional skills and knowledge as basic competences of a masters' program graduate; statistically estimated necessity of practice-based learning approach; and optimization models for structuring curricula in renewable and alternative energy processing. These findings allow the establishment of a platform for the development of educational programs.

41 CFR 102-80.120 - What analytical and empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

...) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire... used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? Analytical and empirical tools, including fire models and grading schedules such as the Fire Safety Evaluation System (Alternative Approaches to Life...

41 CFR 102-80.120 - What analytical and empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire... used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? Analytical and empirical tools, including fire models and grading schedules such as the Fire Safety Evaluation System (Alternative Approaches to Life...

41 CFR 102-80.120 - What analytical and empirical tools should be used to support the life safety equivalency...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Accident and Fire... used to support the life safety equivalency evaluation? Analytical and empirical tools, including fire models and grading schedules such as the Fire Safety Evaluation System (Alternative Approaches to Life...

Simulating timber management in Lake States forests.

Treesearch

Gary J. Brand

1981-01-01

Describes in detail a management subsystem to simulate cutting in Lake States forest types. This subsystem is part of a Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System (STEMS) contained in the Forest Resource Evaluation Program (FREP) for the Lake States. The management subsystem can be used to test the effect of alternate management strategies.

Evaluation of electrical fields inside a biological structure.

PubMed Central

Drago, G. P.; Ridella, S.

1982-01-01

A digital computer simulation has been carried out of exposure of a cell, modelled as a multilayered spherical structure, to an alternating electrical field. Electrical quantities of possible biological interest can be evaluated everywhere inside the cell. A strong frequency selective behaviour in the range 0-10 MHz has been obtained. PMID:6279135

Spacelab Level 4 programmatic Implementation Assessment Study. Volume 3: Optimization and programmatics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Alternate level 4 integration approaches were synthesized and evaluated to establish the most cost effective experiment integration approach. Program baseline system trade studies are described, as well as Spacelab equipment utilization. Programmatic analysis of the baseline program was evaluated; the 2/3 and 1/3 traffic models were also considered.

Alternative Methods for Handling Attrition

PubMed Central

Foster, E. Michael; Fang, Grace Y.

2009-01-01

Using data from the evaluation of the Fast Track intervention, this article illustrates three methods for handling attrition. Multiple imputation and ignorable maximum likelihood estimation produce estimates that are similar to those based on listwise-deleted data. A panel selection model that allows for selective dropout reveals that highly aggressive boys accumulate in the treatment group over time and produces a larger estimate of treatment effect. In contrast, this model produces a smaller treatment effect for girls. The article's conclusion discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative approaches and outlines ways in which researchers might improve their handling of attrition. PMID:15358906

A Monte Carlo Simulation Comparing the Statistical Precision of Two High-Stakes Teacher Evaluation Methods: A Value-Added Model and a Composite Measure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, Bryden

2016-01-01

Value-added models are a class of growth models used in education to assign responsibility for student growth to teachers or schools. For value-added models to be used fairly, sufficient statistical precision is necessary for accurate teacher classification. Previous research indicated precision below practical limits. An alternative approach has…

Express bus-fringe parking planning methodology.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1975-01-01

The conception, calibration, and evaluation of alternative disaggregate behavioral models of the express bus-fringe parking travel choice situation are described. Survey data collected for the Parham Express Service in Richmond, Virginia, are used to...

Numerical and theoretical evaluations of AC losses for single and infinite numbers of superconductor strips with direct and alternating transport currents in external AC magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajikawa, K.; Funaki, K.; Shikimachi, K.; Hirano, N.; Nagaya, S.

2010-11-01

AC losses in a superconductor strip are numerically evaluated by means of a finite element method formulated with a current vector potential. The expressions of AC losses in an infinite slab that corresponds to a simple model of infinitely stacked strips are also derived theoretically. It is assumed that the voltage-current characteristics of the superconductors are represented by Bean's critical state model. The typical operation pattern of a Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) coil with direct and alternating transport currents in an external AC magnetic field is taken into account as the electromagnetic environment for both the single strip and the infinite slab. By using the obtained results of AC losses, the influences of the transport currents on the total losses are discussed quantitatively.

Multiattribute evaluation in formulary decision making as applied to calcium-channel blockers.

PubMed

Schumacher, G E

1991-02-01

The use of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) to make a formulary decision involving calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) is described. The MAUT method is a procedure for identifying, characterizing, and comparing the many variables that may affect a decision. Although applications in pharmacy have been infrequent, MAUT should be particularly appealing to formulary committees. The steps of the MAUT method are (1) determine the viewpoint of the decision makers, (2) identify the decision alternatives, (3) identify the attributes to be evaluated, (4) identify the factors to be used in evaluating the attributes, (5) establish a utility scale for scoring each factor, (6) transform the values for each factor to its utility scale, (7) determine weights for each attribute and factor, (8) calculate the total utility score for each decision alternative, (9) determine which decision alternative has the greatest total score, and (10) perform a sensitivity analysis. The viewpoint of a formulary committee in a health maintenance organization was simulated to develop a model for using the MAUT method to compare CCBs for single-agent therapy of chronic stable angina in ambulatory patients for one year. The attributes chosen were effectiveness, safety, patient acceptance, and cost and weighted 36%, 29%, 21%, and 14%, respectively, as contributions to the evaluation. The rank order of the decision alternatives was (1) generic verapamil, (2) brand-name verapamil, (3) diltiazem, (4) nicardipine, and (5) nifedipine. The MAUT method provides a standardized yet flexible format for comparing and selecting among formulary alternatives.

Building America Case Study: Assessment of a Hybrid Retrofit Gas Water Heater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

This project completed a modeling evaluation of a hybrid gas water heater that combines a reduced capacity tankless unit with a downsized storage tank. This product would meet a significant market need by providing a higher efficiency gas water heater solution for retrofit applications while maintaining compatibility with the half-inch gas lines and standard B vents found in most homes. The TRNSYS simulation tool was used to model a base case 0.60 EF atmospheric gas storage water, a 0.82 EF non-condensing gas tankless water heater, an existing (high capacity) hybrid unit on the market, and an alternative hybrid unit withmore » lower storage volume and reduced gas input requirements. Simulations were completed under a 'peak day' sizing scenario with 183 gpd hot water loads in a Minnesota winter climate case. Full-year simulations were then completed in three climates (ranging from Phoenix to Minneapolis) for three hot water load scenarios (36, 57, and 96 gpd). Model projections indicate that the alternative hybrid offers an average 4.5% efficiency improvement relative to the 0.60 EF gas storage unit across all scenarios modeled. The alternative hybrid water heater evaluated does show promise, but the current low cost of natural gas across much of the country and the relatively small incremental efficiency improvement poses challenges in initially building a market demand for the product.« less

Assessment of a Hybrid Retrofit Gas Water Heater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoeschele, Marc; Weitzel, Elizabeth; Backman, Christine

2017-02-28

This project completed a modeling evaluation of a hybrid gas water heater that combines a reduced capacity tankless unit with a downsized storage tank. This product would meet a significant market need by providing a higher efficiency gas water heater solution for retrofit applications while maintaining compatibility with the 1/2 inch gas lines and standard B vents found in most homes. The TRNSYS simulation tool was used to model a base case 0.60 EF atmospheric gas storage water, a 0.82 EF non-condensing gas tankless water heater, an existing (high capacity) hybrid unit on the market, and an alternative hybrid unitmore » with lower storage volume and reduced gas input requirements. Simulations were completed under a 'peak day' sizing scenario with 183 gpd hot water loads in a Minnesota winter climate case. Full-year simulations were then completed in three climates (ranging from Phoenix to Minneapolis) for three hot water load scenarios (36, 57, and 96 gpd). Model projections indicate that the alternative hybrid offers an average 4.5% efficiency improvement relative to the 0.60 EF gas storage unit across all scenarios modeled. The alternative hybrid water heater evaluated does show promise, but the current low cost of natural gas across much of the country and the relatively small incremental efficiency improvement poses challenges in initially building a market demand for the product.« less

Design and Simulation Plant Layout Using Systematic Layout Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhardini, D.; Septiani, W.; Fauziah, S.

2017-12-01

This research aims to design the factory layout of PT. Gunaprima Budiwijaya in order to increase production capacity. The problem faced by this company is inappropriate layout causes cross traffic on the production floor. The re-layout procedure consist of these three steps: analysing the existing layout, designing plant layout based on SLP and evaluation and selection of alternative layout using Simulation Pro model version 6. Systematic layout planning is used to re-layout not based on the initial layout. This SLP produces four layout alternatives, and each alternative will be evaluated based on two criteria, namely cost of material handling using Material Handling Evaluation Sheet (MHES) and processing time by simulation. The results showed that production capacity is increasing as much as 37.5% with the addition of the machine and the operator, while material handling cost was reduced by improvement of the layout. The use of systematic layout planning method reduces material handling cost of 10,98% from initial layout or amounting to Rp1.229.813,34.

Evaluation of Generalized Performance across Materials When Using Video Technology by Students with Autism Spectrum Disorder and Moderate Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mechling, Linda C.; Ayres, Kevin M.; Foster, Ashley L.; Bryant, Kathryn J.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of four high school-aged students with a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder and moderate intellectual disability to generalize performance of skills when using materials different from those presented through video models. An adapted alternating treatments design was used to evaluate student…

Computer Science and Technology: Modeling and Measurement Techniques for Evaluation of Design Alternatives in the Implementation of Database Management Software. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deutsch, Donald R.

This report describes a research effort that was carried out over a period of several years to develop and demonstrate a methodology for evaluating proposed Database Management System designs. The major proposition addressed by this study is embodied in the thesis statement: Proposed database management system designs can be evaluated best through…

Model-Based Analysis for Qualitative Data: An Application in Drosophila Germline Stem Cell Regulation

PubMed Central

Pargett, Michael; Rundell, Ann E.; Buzzard, Gregery T.; Umulis, David M.

2014-01-01

Discovery in developmental biology is often driven by intuition that relies on the integration of multiple types of data such as fluorescent images, phenotypes, and the outcomes of biochemical assays. Mathematical modeling helps elucidate the biological mechanisms at play as the networks become increasingly large and complex. However, the available data is frequently under-utilized due to incompatibility with quantitative model tuning techniques. This is the case for stem cell regulation mechanisms explored in the Drosophila germarium through fluorescent immunohistochemistry. To enable better integration of biological data with modeling in this and similar situations, we have developed a general parameter estimation process to quantitatively optimize models with qualitative data. The process employs a modified version of the Optimal Scaling method from social and behavioral sciences, and multi-objective optimization to evaluate the trade-off between fitting different datasets (e.g. wild type vs. mutant). Using only published imaging data in the germarium, we first evaluated support for a published intracellular regulatory network by considering alternative connections of the same regulatory players. Simply screening networks against wild type data identified hundreds of feasible alternatives. Of these, five parsimonious variants were found and compared by multi-objective analysis including mutant data and dynamic constraints. With these data, the current model is supported over the alternatives, but support for a biochemically observed feedback element is weak (i.e. these data do not measure the feedback effect well). When also comparing new hypothetical models, the available data do not discriminate. To begin addressing the limitations in data, we performed a model-based experiment design and provide recommendations for experiments to refine model parameters and discriminate increasingly complex hypotheses. PMID:24626201

48 CFR 852.273-72 - Alternative evaluation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Alternative evaluation... Alternative evaluation. As prescribed in 873.110(c), insert the following provision: Alternative Evaluation... unbalanced. Evaluation of options shall not obligate the Government to exercise the option(s). (End of...

Thin stillage fractionation using ultrafiltration: resistance in series model.

PubMed

Arora, Amit; Dien, Bruce S; Belyea, Ronald L; Wang, Ping; Singh, Vijay; Tumbleson, M E; Rausch, Kent D

2009-02-01

The corn based dry grind process is the most widely used method in the US for fuel ethanol production. Fermentation of corn to ethanol produces whole stillage after ethanol is removed by distillation. It is centrifuged to separate thin stillage from wet grains. Thin stillage contains 5-10% solids. To concentrate solids of thin stillage, it requires evaporation of large amounts of water and maintenance of evaporators. Evaporator maintenance requires excess evaporator capacity at the facility, increasing capital expenses, requiring plant slowdowns or shut downs and results in revenue losses. Membrane filtration is one method that could lead to improved value of thin stillage and may offer an alternative to evaporation. Fractionation of thin stillage using ultrafiltration was conducted to evaluate membranes as an alternative to evaporators in the ethanol industry. Two regenerated cellulose membranes with molecular weight cut offs of 10 and 100 kDa were evaluated. Total solids (suspended and soluble) contents recovered through membrane separation process were similar to those from commercial evaporators. Permeate flux decline of thin stillage using a resistance in series model was determined. Each of the four components of total resistance was evaluated experimentally. Effects of operating variables such as transmembrane pressure and temperature on permeate flux rate and resistances were determined and optimum conditions for maximum flux rates were evaluated. Model equations were developed to evaluate the resistance components that are responsible for fouling and to predict total flux decline with respect to time. Modeling results were in agreement with experimental results (R(2) > 0.98).

Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

2014-01-01

Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

Why did the bear cross the road? Comparing the performance of multiple resistance surfaces and connectivity modeling methods

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Jesse S. Lewis; Erin L. Landguth

2014-01-01

There have been few assessments of the performance of alternative resistance surfaces, and little is known about how connectivity modeling approaches differ in their ability to predict organism movements. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of four connectivity modeling approaches applied to two resistance surfaces in predicting the locations of highway...

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

Alternatives evaluation and decommissioning study on shielded transfer tanks at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVore, J.R.; Hinton, R.R.

1994-08-01

The shielded transfer tanks (STTs) are five obsolete cylindrical shipping casks which were used to transport high specific activity radioactive solutions by rail during the 1960s and early 1970s. The STTs are currently stored at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory under a shed roof. This report is an evaluation to determine the preferred alternative for the final disposition of the five STTs. The decommissioning alternatives assessed include: (1) the no action alternative to leave the STTs in their present location with continued surveillance and maintenance; (2) solidification of contents within the tanks and holding the STTs in long term retrievablemore » storage; (3) sale of one or more of the used STTs to private industry for use at their treatment facility with the remaining STTs processed as in Alternative 4; and (4) removal of tank contents for de-watering/retrievable storage, limited decontamination to meet acceptance criteria, smelting the STTs to recycle the metal through the DOE contaminated scrap metal program, and returning the shielding lead to the ORNL lead recovery program because the smelting contractor cannot reprocess the lead. To completely evaluate the alternatives for the disposition of the STTs, the contents of the tanks must be characterized. Shielding and handling requirements, risk considerations, and waste acceptance criteria all require that the radioactive inventory and free liquids residual in the STTs be known. Because characterization of the STT contents in the field was not input into a computer model to predict the probable inventory and amount of free liquid. The four alternatives considered were subjected to a numerical scoring procedure. Alternative 4, smelting the STTs to recycle the metal after removal/de-watering of the tank contents, had the highest score and is, therefore, recommended as the preferred alternative. However, if a buyer for one or more STT could be found, it is recommended that Alternative 3 be reconsidered.« less

Traveltime budgets and mobility in urban areas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1974-05-01

The study tests by empirical comparative analysis the concept that tripmakers have a stable daily traveltime budget and discusses the implication of such a budget to transportation modeling techniques and the evaluation of alternative transportation ...

Alternative prediction methods of protein and energy evaluation of pig feeds.

PubMed

Święch, Ewa

2017-01-01

Precise knowledge of the actual nutritional value of individual feedstuffs and complete diets for pigs is important for efficient livestock production. Methods of assessment of protein and energy values in pig feeds have been briefly described. In vivo determination of protein and energy values of feeds in pigs are time-consuming, expensive and very often require the use of surgically-modified animals. There is a need for more simple, rapid, inexpensive and reproducible methods for routine feed evaluation. Protein and energy values of pig feeds can be estimated using the following alternative methods: 1) prediction equations based on chemical composition; 2) animal models as rats, cockerels and growing pigs for adult animals; 3) rapid methods, such as the mobile nylon bag technique and in vitro methods. Alternative methods developed for predicting the total tract and ileal digestibility of nutrients including amino acids in feedstuffs and diets for pigs have been reviewed. This article focuses on two in vitro methods that can be used for the routine evaluation of amino acid ileal digestibility and energy value of pig feeds and on factors affecting digestibility determined in vivo in pigs and by alternative methods. Validation of alternative methods has been carried out by comparing the results obtained using these methods with those acquired in vivo in pigs. In conclusion, energy and protein values of pig feeds may be estimated with satisfactory precision in rats and by the two- or three-step in vitro methods providing equations for the calculation of standardized ileal digestibility of amino acids and metabolizable energy content. The use of alternative methods of feed evaluation is an important way for reduction of stressful animal experiments.

Alternative models in developmental toxicology.

PubMed

Lee, Hyung-yul; Inselman, Amy L; Kanungo, Jyotshnabala; Hansen, Deborah K

2012-02-01

In light of various pressures, toxicologists have been searching for alternative methods for safety testing of chemicals. According to a recent policy in the European Union (Regulation, Evaluation Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals, REACH), it has been estimated that over the next twelve to fifteen years, approximately 30,000 chemicals may need to be tested for safety, and under current guidelines such testing would require the use of approximately 7.2 million laboratory animals [ Hofer et al. 2004 ]. It has also been estimated that over 80% of all animals used for safety testing under REACH legislation would be used for examining reproductive and developmental toxicity [Hofer et al., 2004]. In addition to REACH initiatives, it has been estimated that out of 5,000 to 10,000 new drug entities that a pharmaceutical company may start with, only one is finally approved by the Food and Drug Administration at a cost of over one billion dollars [ Garg et al. 2011 ]. A large portion of this cost is due to animal testing. Therefore, both the pharmaceutical and chemical industries are interested in using alternative models and in vitro tests for safety testing. This review will examine the current state of three alternative models - whole embryo culture (WEC), the mouse embryonic stem cell test (mEST), and zebrafish. Each of these alternatives will be reviewed, and advantages and disadvantages of each model will be discussed. These models were chosen because they are the models most commonly used and would appear to have the greatest potential for future applications in developmental toxicity screening and testing.

Setting Priorities: A Handbook of Alternative Techniques.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Nelson C.

Six models for setting priorities are presented in a workbook format with exercises for evaluating or practicing five techniques. In the San Mateo model one sets priorities, clarifies priority purpose, lists items, determines criteria, lists items and criteria on a rating sheet, studies all information on items, rates each item, tallies results,…

Analysis of safety impacts of access management alternatives using the surrogate safety assessment model : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate if the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM) could be used to assess the safety of a highway segment or an intersection in terms of the number and type of conflicts and to compare the safety effects of mul...

Participatory Systems Modeling to Explore Sustainable Solutions: Triple Value Simulation Modeling Cases Tackle Nutrient and Watershed Management from a Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) perspective

EPA Science Inventory

Decision makers often need assistance in understanding dynamic interactions and linkages among economic, environmental and social systems in coastal watersheds. They also need scientific input to better evaluate potential costs and benefits of alternative policy interventions. Th...

Development of an acute oral toxicity dataset to facilitate assessment of existing QSARs and development of new models (WC10)

EPA Science Inventory

Acute oral toxicity data are used to meet both regulatory and non-regulatory needs. Recently, there have been efforts to explore alternative approaches for predicting acute oral toxicity such as QSARs. Evaluating the performance and scope of existing models and investigating the ...

Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Instructional Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkin, Marvin C.

A model of cost-effectiveness is outlined which enables consideration of some non-financial, as well as financial, elements of educational systems at school or district levels. The model enables the decision-maker to compare educational outcomes of different units, to assess the impact of alternative levels of financial input, and to select…

76 FR 7694 - Airworthiness Directives; PIAGGIO AERO INDUSTRIES S.p.A Model PIAGGIO P-180 Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-11

... Airworthiness Directives; PIAGGIO AERO INDUSTRIES S.p.A Model PIAGGIO P-180 Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation... Piaggio service bulletin number specified in the Alternative Methods of Compliance (AMOCs) section is..., except Federal holidays. The AD docket contains this AD, the regulatory evaluation, any comments received...

Multilevel and Single-Level Models for Measured and Latent Variables When Data Are Clustered

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stapleton, Laura M.; McNeish, Daniel M.; Yang, Ji Seung

2016-01-01

Multilevel models are often used to evaluate hypotheses about relations among constructs when data are nested within clusters (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002), although alternative approaches are available when analyzing nested data (Binder & Roberts, 2003; Sterba, 2009). The overarching goal of this article is to suggest when it is appropriate…

Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy

2008-01-01

Simulation models of disturbance and succession are being increasingly applied to characterize landscape composition and dynamics under natural fire regimes, and to evaluate alternative management strategies for ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction. However, we have a limited understanding of how landscapes respond to changes in fire frequency, and about...

CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE DIFFUSION HYPOTHESIS IN THE THEORY OF POROUS MEDIA VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND (VOC) SOURCES AND SINKS

EPA Science Inventory

The paper proposes three alternative, diffusion-limited mathematical models to account for volatile organic compound (VOC) interactions with indoor sinks, using the linear isotherm model as a reference point. (NOTE: Recent reports by both the U.S. EPA and a study committee of the...

Spatial scaling and multi-model inference in landscape genetics: Martes americana in northern Idaho

Treesearch

Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael K. Schwartz; David O. Wallin

2010-01-01

Individual-based analyses relating landscape structure to genetic distances across complex landscapes enable rigorous evaluation of multiple alternative hypotheses linking landscape structure to gene flow. We utilize two extensions to increase the rigor of the individual-based causal modeling approach to inferring relationships between landscape patterns and gene flow...

Model-assisted development of a laminography inspection system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandin, R.; Gray, J.

2012-05-01

Traditional computed tomography (CT) is an effective method of determining the internal structure of an object through non-destructive means; however, inspection of certain objects, such as those with planar geometrics or with limited access, requires an alternate approach. An alternative is laminography and has been the focus of a number of researchers in the past decade for both medical and industrial inspections. Many research efforts rely on geometrically-simple analytical models, such as the Shepp-Logan phantom, for the development of their algorithms. Recent work at the Center for Non-Destructive Evaluation makes extensive use of a forward model, XRSIM, to study artifacts arising from the reconstruction method, the effects of complex geometries and known issues such as high density features on the laminography reconstruction process. The use of a model provides full knowledge of all aspects of the geometry and provides a means to quantitatively evaluate the impact of methods designed to reduce artifacts generated by the reconstruction methods or that are result of the part geometry. We will illustrate the use of forward simulations to quantitatively assess reconstruction algorithm development and artifact reduction.

A stirling engine computer model for performance calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tew, R.; Jefferies, K.; Miao, D.

1978-01-01

To support the development of the Stirling engine as a possible alternative to the automobile spark-ignition engine, the thermodynamic characteristics of the Stirling engine were analyzed and modeled on a computer. The modeling techniques used are presented. The performance of an existing rhombic-drive Stirling engine was simulated by use of this computer program, and some typical results are presented. Engine tests are planned in order to evaluate this model.

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

Treesearch

Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

Fuzzy sets, rough sets, and modeling evidence: Theory and Application. A Dempster-Shafer based approach to compromise decision making with multiattributes applied to product selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekorvin, Andre

1992-01-01

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is applied to a multiattribute decision making problem whereby the decision maker (DM) must compromise with available alternatives, none of which exactly satisfies his ideal. The decision mechanism is constrained by the uncertainty inherent in the determination of the relative importance of each attribute element and the classification of existing alternatives. The classification of alternatives is addressed through expert evaluation of the degree to which each element is contained in each available alternative. The relative importance of each attribute element is determined through pairwise comparisons of the elements by the decision maker and implementation of a ratio scale quantification method. Then the 'belief' and 'plausibility' that an alternative will satisfy the decision maker's ideal are calculated and combined to rank order the available alternatives. Application to the problem of selecting computer software is given.

Spatially explicit population modeling and the reintroduction of a native ungulate: Using HexSim to evaluate release alternatives

EPA Science Inventory

The tule elk (Cervus elaphus nannodes), a subspecies of ungulate endemic to central California, was nearly brought to extinction in the 19th century and is still extirpated from most of its natural range. As part of an ongoing restoration program, we evaluated a portion of its fo...

Interrelation of Evaluation and Self-Evaluation in the Diagnostic Procedures to Assess Teachers' Readiness for Innovation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tyunnikov, Yurii S.

2016-01-01

The paper solves the problem of the relationship of external diagnosis and self-diagnosis of readiness of teachers to innovative activity. It highlights major disadvantages of measurement tools that are used to this process. The author demonstrates an alternative approach to harmonizing the diagnosis, based on a modular diagnostic model, general…

Evaluation of an adherent mouse embryonic stem cell in vitro assay to predict developmental toxicity of ToxCast chemicals.

EPA Science Inventory

The potential for most environmental chemicals to produce developmental toxicity is unknown. Mouse embryonic stem cell (mESC) assays are an alternative in vitro model to assess chemicals. The chemical space evaluated using mESC and compared to in vivo is limited. We used an adher...

Multiple Alternatives for Educational Evaluation and Decision-Making. Interim Draft. Paper and Report Series No. 72.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wholeben, Brent E.

This volume is an exposition of a mathematical modeling technique for use in the evaluation and solution of complex educational problems at all levels. It explores in detail the application of simple algebraic techniques to such issues as program reduction, fiscal rollbacks, and computer curriculum planning. Part I ("Introduction to the…

Program Evaluation of a Competency-Based Online Model in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiGiacomo, Karen

2017-01-01

In order to serve its nontraditional students, a university piloted a competency-based program as alternative method for its students to earn college credit. The purpose of this mixed-methods study was to conduct a summative program evaluation to determine if the program was successful in order to make decisions about program revision and…

Use of Interactive Electronic Audience Response Tools (Clickers) to Evaluate Knowledge Gained in Extension Programming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunn, Patrick; Loy, Dan

2015-01-01

Effectively measuring short-term impact, particularly a change in knowledge resulting from Extension programming, can prove to be challenging. Clicker-based technology, when used properly, is one alternative that may allow educators to better evaluate this aspect of the logic model. While the potential interface between clicker technology and…

Scripting MODFLOW model development using Python and FloPy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakker, Mark; Post, Vincent E. A.; Langevin, Christian D.; Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy; Starn, Jeffrey; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-01-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy.

Promoting Scientific Thinking and Conceptual Change about Alternative Explanations of Climate Change and Other Controversial Socio-scientific Topics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, D.; Sinatra, G. M.

2013-12-01

Critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal of scientific explanations have been underemphasized in many science classrooms (NRC, 2012). Deep science learning demands that students increase their ability to critically evaluate the quality of scientific knowledge, weigh alternative explanations, and explicitly reappraise their plausibility judgments. Therefore, this lack of instruction about critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal has, in part, contributed to diminished understanding about complex and controversial topics, such as global climate change. The Model-Evidence Link (MEL) diagram (originally developed by researchers at Rutgers University under an NSF-supported project; Chinn & Buckland, 2012) is an instructional scaffold that promotes students to critically evaluate alternative explanations. We recently developed a climate change MEL and found that the students who used the MEL experienced a significant shift in their plausibility judgments toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change. Using the MEL for instruction also resulted in conceptual change about the causes of global warming that reflected greater understanding of fundamental scientific principles. Furthermore, students sustained this conceptual change six months after MEL instruction (Lombardi, Sinatra, & Nussbaum, 2013). This presentation will discuss recent educational research that supports use of the MEL to promote critical evaluation, plausibility reappraisal, and conceptual change, and also, how the MEL may be particularly effective for learning about global climate change and other socio-scientific topics. Such instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) is demanded by both the Next Generation Science Standards (Achieve, 2013) and the Common Core State Standards for English Language Arts and Mathematics (CCSS Initiative-ELA, 2010; CCSS Initiative-Math, 2010), as well as a society that is equipped to deal with challenges in a way that is beneficial to our national and global community.

Health economic evaluation: important principles and methodology.

PubMed

Rudmik, Luke; Drummond, Michael

2013-06-01

To discuss health economic evaluation and improve the understanding of common methodology. This article discusses the methodology for the following types of economic evaluations: cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit, and economic modeling. Topics include health-state utility measures, the quality-adjusted life year (QALY), uncertainty analysis, discounting, decision tree analysis, and Markov modeling. Economic evaluation is the comparative analysis of alternative courses of action in terms of both their costs and consequences. With increasing health care expenditure and limited resources, it is important for physicians to consider the economic impact of their interventions. Understanding common methodology involved in health economic evaluation will improve critical appraisal of the literature and optimize future economic evaluations. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

2007-12-01

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result ofmore » the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations are challenged by the distributed sources in each of the Corrective Action Units, by complex mass transfer processes, and by the size and complexity of the field-scale flow models. An efficient methodology utilizing particle tracking results and convolution integrals provides in situ concentrations appropriate for Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertainty in source releases and transport parameters including effective porosity, fracture apertures and spacing, matrix diffusion coefficients, sorption coefficients, and colloid load and mobility are considered. With the distributions of input uncertainties and output plume volumes, global analysis methods including stepwise regression, contingency table analysis, and classification tree analysis are used to develop sensitivity rankings of parameter uncertainties for each model considered, thus assisting a variety of decisions.« less

Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989, volume 2. Appendix: AFEAS Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The results are presented of the Alternative Fluorocarbon Environmental Acceptability Study (AFEAS), which was organized to evaluate the potential effects on the environment of alternate compounds targeted to replace fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). All relevant current scientific information to determine the environmental acceptability of the alternative fluorocarbons. Special emphasis was placed on: the potential of the compounds to affect stratospheric ozone; their potential to affect tropospheric ozone; their potential to contribute to model calculated global warming; the atmospheric degradation mechanisms of the compounds, in order to identify their products; and the potential environmental effects of the decomposition products. The alternative compounds to be studied were hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with one or two carbon atoms and one or more each of fluorine and hydrogen.

Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.; Baldys, Stanley

2011-01-01

In cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed channel changes on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, and modeled historical floods to investigate possible causes and potential mitigation alternatives to higher flood stages in recent (2007 and 2008) floods. Extreme flooding occurred on the Wichita River on June 30, 2007, inundating 167 homes in Wichita Falls. Although a record flood stage was reached in June 2007, the peak discharge was much less than some historical floods at Wichita Falls. Streamflow and stage data from two gages on the Wichita River and one on Holliday Creek were used to assess the interaction of the two streams. Changes in the Wichita River channel were evaluated using historical aerial and ground photography, comparison of recent and historical cross sections, and comparison of channel roughness coefficients with those from earlier studies. The floods of 2007 and 2008 were modeled using a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibrated channel roughness was larger for the 2007 flood compared to the 2008 flood, and the 2007 flood peaked about 4 feet higher than the 2008 flood. Calibration of the 1941 flood yielded a channel roughness coefficient (Manning's n) of 0.030, which represents a fairly clean natural channel. The step-backwater model was also used to evaluate the following potential mitigation alternatives: (1) increasing the capacity of the bypass channel near River Road in Wichita Falls, Texas; (2) removal of obstructions near the Scott Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard bridges in Wichita Falls, Texas; (3) widening of aggraded channel banks in the reach between Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard and River Road; and (4) reducing channel bank and overbank roughness. Reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.1 foot to as much as 3.0 feet for the different mitigation alternatives. The effects of implementing a combination of different flood-mitigation alternatives were not investigated.

Evaluation of two evapotranspiration approaches simulated with the CSM-CERES-Maize model under different irrigation strategies and the impact on maize growth, development and soil moisture content for semi-arid conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water deficit is the most common adverse environmental condition that can seriously reduce crop productivity. Crop simulation models could assist in determining alternate crop management scenarios to deal with water-limited conditions. However, prior to the application of crop models, the appropriat...

Optimizing spectral wave estimates with adjoint-based sensitivity maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Veeramony, Jay; Flampouris, Stylianos

2014-04-01

A discrete numerical adjoint has recently been developed for the stochastic wave model SWAN. In the present study, this adjoint code is used to construct spectral sensitivity maps for two nearshore domains. The maps display the correlations of spectral energy levels throughout the domain with the observed energy levels at a selected location or region of interest (LOI/ROI), providing a full spectrum of values at all locations in the domain. We investigate the effectiveness of sensitivity maps based on significant wave height ( H s ) in determining alternate offshore instrument deployment sites when a chosen nearshore location or region is inaccessible. Wave and bathymetry datasets are employed from one shallower, small-scale domain (Duck, NC) and one deeper, larger-scale domain (San Diego, CA). The effects of seasonal changes in wave climate, errors in bathymetry, and multiple assimilation points on sensitivity map shapes and model performance are investigated. Model accuracy is evaluated by comparing spectral statistics as well as with an RMS skill score, which estimates a mean model-data error across all spectral bins. Results indicate that data assimilation from identified high-sensitivity alternate locations consistently improves model performance at nearshore LOIs, while assimilation from low-sensitivity locations results in lesser or no improvement. Use of sub-sampled or alongshore-averaged bathymetry has a domain-specific effect on model performance when assimilating from a high-sensitivity alternate location. When multiple alternate assimilation locations are used from areas of lower sensitivity, model performance may be worse than with a single, high-sensitivity assimilation point.

Compartmental transport model of microbicide delivery by an intravaginal ring

PubMed Central

Geonnotti, Anthony R.; Katz, David F.

2010-01-01

Topical antimicrobials, or microbicides, are being developed to prevent HIV transmission through local, mucosal delivery of antiviral compounds. While hydrogel vehicles deliver the majority of current microbicide products, intravaginal rings (IVRs) are an alternative microbicide modality in preclinical development. IVRs provide a long-term dosing alternative to hydrogel use, and might provide improved user adherence. IVR efficacy requires sustained delivery of antiviral compounds to the entire vaginal compartment. A two-dimensional, compartmental vaginal drug transport model was created to evaluate the delivery of drugs from an intravaginal ring. The model utilized MRI-derived ring geometry and location, experimentally defined ring fluxes and vaginal fluid velocities, and biophysically relevant transport theory. Model outputs indicated the presence of potentially inhibitory concentrations of antiviral compounds along the entire vaginal canal within 24 hours following IVR insertion. Distributions of inhibitory concentrations of antiviral compounds were substantially influenced by vaginal fluid flow and production, while showing little change due to changes in diffusion coefficients or ring fluxes. Additionally, model results were predictive of in vivo concentrations obtained in clinical trials. Overall, this analysis initiates a mechanistic computational framework, heretofore missing, to understand and evaluate the potential of IVRs for effective delivery of antiviral compounds. PMID:20222027

Alternative model of thrust-fault propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenstadt, Gloria; de Paor, Declan G.

1987-07-01

A widely accepted explanation for the geometry of thrust faults is that initial failures occur on deeply buried planes of weak rock and that thrust faults propagate toward the surface along a staircase trajectory. We propose an alternative model that applies Gretener's beam-failure mechanism to a multilayered sequence. Invoking compatibility conditions, which demand that a thrust propagate both upsection and downsection, we suggest that ramps form first, at shallow levels, and are subsequently connected by flat faults. This hypothesis also explains the formation of many minor structures associated with thrusts, such as backthrusts, wedge structures, pop-ups, and duplexes, and provides a unified conceptual framework in which to evaluate field observations.

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

One-equation near-wall turbulence modeling with the aid of direct simulation data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodi, W.; Mansour, N. N.; Michelassi, V.

1993-01-01

The length scales appearing in the relations for the eddy viscosity and dissipation rate in one-equation models were evaluated from direct numerical (DNS) simulation data for developed channel and boundary-layer flow at two Reynolds numbers each. To prepare the ground for the evaluation, the distribution of the most relevant mean-flow and turbulence quantities is presented and discussed, also with respect to Reynolds-number influence and to differences between channel and boundary-layer flow. An alternative model is tested as near wall component of a two-layer model by application to developed-channel, boundary-layer and backward-facing-step flows.

Alternate Service Delivery Models in Cancer Genetic Counseling: A Mini-Review.

PubMed

Buchanan, Adam Hudson; Rahm, Alanna Kulchak; Williams, Janet L

2016-01-01

Demand for cancer genetic counseling has grown rapidly in recent years as germline genomic information has become increasingly incorporated into cancer care, and the field has entered the public consciousness through high-profile celebrity publications. Increased demand and existing variability in the availability of trained cancer genetics clinicians place a priority on developing and evaluating alternate service delivery models for genetic counseling. This mini-review summarizes the state of science regarding service delivery models, such as telephone counseling, telegenetics, and group counseling. Research on comparative effectiveness of these models in traditional individual, in-person genetic counseling has been promising for improving access to care in a manner acceptable to patients. Yet, it has not fully evaluated the short- and long-term patient- and system-level outcomes that will help answer the question of whether these models achieve the same beneficial psychosocial and behavioral outcomes as traditional cancer genetic counseling. We propose a research agenda focused on comparative effectiveness of available service delivery models and how to match models to patients and practice settings. Only through this rigorous research can clinicians and systems find the optimal balance of clinical quality, ready and secure access to care, and financial sustainability. Such research will be integral to achieving the promise of genomic medicine in oncology.

Methods for analysis of cracks in three-dimensional solids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, I. S.; Newman, J. C., Jr.

1984-01-01

Various analytical and numerical methods used to evaluate the stress intensity factors for cracks in three-dimensional (3-D) solids are reviewed. Classical exact solutions and many of the approximate methods used in 3-D analyses of cracks are reviewed. The exact solutions for embedded elliptic cracks in infinite solids are discussed. The approximate methods reviewed are the finite element methods, the boundary integral equation (BIE) method, the mixed methods (superposition of analytical and finite element method, stress difference method, discretization-error method, alternating method, finite element-alternating method), and the line-spring model. The finite element method with singularity elements is the most widely used method. The BIE method only needs modeling of the surfaces of the solid and so is gaining popularity. The line-spring model appears to be the quickest way to obtain good estimates of the stress intensity factors. The finite element-alternating method appears to yield the most accurate solution at the minimum cost.

Deletion Diagnostics for Alternating Logistic Regressions

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; By, Kunthel; Perin, Jamie; Qaqish, Bahjat F.

2013-01-01

Deletion diagnostics are introduced for the regression analysis of clustered binary outcomes estimated with alternating logistic regressions, an implementation of generalized estimating equations (GEE) that estimates regression coefficients in a marginal mean model and in a model for the intracluster association given by the log odds ratio. The diagnostics are developed within an estimating equations framework that recasts the estimating functions for association parameters based upon conditional residuals into equivalent functions based upon marginal residuals. Extensions of earlier work on GEE diagnostics follow directly, including computational formulae for one-step deletion diagnostics that measure the influence of a cluster of observations on the estimated regression parameters and on the overall marginal mean or association model fit. The diagnostic formulae are evaluated with simulations studies and with an application concerning an assessment of factors associated with health maintenance visits in primary care medical practices. The application and the simulations demonstrate that the proposed cluster-deletion diagnostics for alternating logistic regressions are good approximations of their exact fully iterated counterparts. PMID:22777960

Health courts: an alternative to traditional tort law.

PubMed

Miller, Lisa A

2011-01-01

The current adversarial tort-based system of adjudicating malpractice claims is flawed. Alternate methods of compensation for birth injuries related to oxygen deprivation or mechanical injury are being utilized in Virginia and Florida. Although utilization of both of these schemes is limited, and they are not without problems in application, both have been successful in reducing the number of malpractice claims in the tort system and in reducing malpractice premiums. While the Florida and Virginia programs are primarily focused on compensation, other models outside the US focus include compensation as well as enhanced dispute resolution and potential for clinical practice change through peer review. Experts in the fields of law and public policy in the United States have evaluated a variety of approaches and have proposed models for administrative health courts that would provide both compensation and dispute resolution for medical and nursing malpractice claims. These alternative models are based on transparency and disclosure, with just compensation for injuries, and opportunities for improvements in patient safety.

A new conceptual model to understand the water budget of an Irrigated Basin with Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foglia, L.; McNally, A.; Harter, T.

2012-12-01

The Scott River is one of four major tributaries in the Klamath River Basin that provide cold water habitat for salmonid populations. The Scott Valley is also a major agricultural growing region with extensive alfalfa and hay productions that are key to the local economy. Due to the Mediterranean climate in the area, discharge rates in the river are highly seasonal. Almost all annual discharge occurs during the winter precipitation season and spring snowmelt. During the summer months (July through September), the main-stem river becomes disconnected from its tributaries throughout much of Scott Valley and relies primarily on baseflow from the Scott Valley aquifer. Scott Valley agriculture relies on a combination of surface water and groundwater supplies for crop irrigation during April through September. Conflicts between ecosystem services needs to guarantee a sustainable water quality (mainly in-stream temperature) for the native salmon population and water demands for agricultural irrigation motivated the development of a new conceptual model for the evaluation of the soil-water budget throughout the valley, as a basis for developing alternative surface water and groundwater management practices. The model simulates daily hydrologic fluxes at the individual field scale (100 - 200 m), allocates water resources to nearby irrigation systems, and tracks soil moisture to determine groundwater recharge. The water budget model provides recharge and pumping values for each field. These values in turn are used as inputs for a valley-wide groundwater model developed with MODFLOW-2000. In a first step, separate sensitivity analysis and calibration of the groundwater model is used to provide insights on the accuracy of the recharge and pumping distribution estimated with the water budget model. In a further step, the soil water budget and groundwater flow models will be coupled and sensitivity analysis and calibration will be performed simultaneously. Field-based, local-scale analysis allows for the evaluation of different management alternatives and their impact on recharge to groundwater or the streamflow. Management alternatives to be evaluated will include, for example, artificially increased spring irrigation recharge, deficit irrigation, use of more efficient irrigation practices. Furthermore, from the perspective of the local groundwater committee, it will be critical to be able to evaluate the effect of each field on the total water budget.

Assessment of Alternative Conceptual Models Using Reactive Transport Modeling with Monitoring Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Price, V.; Heffner, D.; Hodges, R.; Temples, T.; Nicholson, T.

2005-12-01

Monitoring data proved very useful in evaluating alternative conceptual models, simulating contaminant transport behavior, and reducing uncertainty. A graded approach using three alternative conceptual site models was formulated to simulate a field case of tetrachloroethene (PCE) transport and biodegradation. These models ranged from simple to complex in their representation of subsurface heterogeneities. The simplest model was a single-layer homogeneous aquifer that employed an analytical reactive transport code, BIOCHLOR (Aziz et al., 1999). Due to over-simplification of the aquifer structure, this simulation could not reproduce the monitoring data. The second model consisted of a multi-layer conceptual model, in combination with numerical modules, MODFLOW and RT3D within GMS, to simulate flow and reactive transport. Although the simulation results from the second model were comparatively better than those from the simple model, they still did not adequately reproduce the monitoring well concentrations because the geological structures were still inadequately defined. Finally, a more realistic conceptual model was formulated that incorporated heterogeneities and geologic structures identified from well logs and seismic survey data using the Petra and PetraSeis software. This conceptual model included both a major channel and a younger channel that were detected in the PCE source area. In this model, these channels control the local ground-water flow direction and provide a preferential chemical transport pathway. Simulation results using this conceptual site model proved compatible with the monitoring concentration data. This study demonstrates that the bias and uncertainty from inadequate conceptual models are much larger than those introduced from an inadequate choice of model parameter values (Neuman and Wierenga, 2003; Meyer et al., 2004; Ye et al., 2004). This case study integrated conceptual and numerical models, based on interpreted local hydrogeologic and geochemical data, with detailed monitoring plume data. It provided key insights for confirming alternative conceptual site models and assessing the performance of monitoring networks. A monitoring strategy based on this graded approach for assessing alternative conceptual models can provide the technical bases for identifying critical monitoring locations, adequate monitoring frequency, and performance indicator parameters for performance monitoring involving ground-water levels and PCE concentrations.

The CTFA Evaluation of Alternatives Program: an evaluation of in vitro alternatives to the Draize primary eye irritation test. (Phase III) surfactant-based formulations.

PubMed

Gettings, S D; Lordo, R A; Hintze, K L; Bagley, D M; Casterton, P L; Chudkowski, M; Curren, R D; Demetrulias, J L; Dipasquale, L C; Earl, L K; Feder, P I; Galli, C L; Glaza, S M; Gordon, V C; Janus, J; Kurtz, P J; Marenus, K D; Moral, J; Pape, W J; Renskers, K J; Rheins, L A; Roddy, M T; Rozen, M G; Tedeschi, J P; Zyracki, J

1996-01-01

The CTFA Evaluation of Alternatives Program is an evaluation of the relationship between data from the Draize primary eye irritation test and comparable data from a selection of promising in vitro eye irritation tests. In Phase III, data from the Draize test and 41 in vitro endpoints on 25 representative surfactant-based personal care formulations were compared. As in Phase I and Phase II, regression modelling of the relationship between maximum average Draize score (MAS) and in vitro endpoint was the primary approach adopted for evaluating in vitro assay performance. The degree of confidence in prediction of MAS for a given in vitro endpoint is quantified in terms of the relative widths of prediction intervals constructed about the fitted regression curve. Prediction intervals reflect not only the error attributed to the model but also the material-specific components of variation in both the Draize and the in vitro assays. Among the in vitro assays selected for regression modeling in Phase III, the relationship between MAS and in vitro score was relatively well defined. The prediction bounds on MAS were most narrow for materials at the lower or upper end of the effective irritation range (MAS = 0-45), where variability in MAS was smallest. This, the confidence with which the MAS of surfactant-based formulations is predicted is greatest when MAS approaches zero or when MAS approaches 45 (no comment is made on prediction of MAS > 45 since extrapolation beyond the range of observed data is not possible). No single in vitro endpoint was found to exhibit relative superiority with regard to prediction of MAS. Variability associated with Draize test outcome (e.g. in MAS values) must be considered in any future comparisons of in vivo and in vitro test results if the purpose is to predict in vivo response using in vitro data.

Alternative Approaches to Assessing Nonresponse Bias in Longitudinal Survey Estimates: An Application to Substance-Use Outcomes Among Young Adults in the United States

PubMed Central

West, Brady Thomas; McCabe, Sean Esteban

2017-01-01

Abstract We evaluated alternative approaches to assessing and correcting for nonresponse bias in a longitudinal survey. We considered the changes in substance-use outcomes over a 3-year period among young adults aged 18–24 years (n = 5,199) in the United States, analyzing data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. This survey collected a variety of substance-use information from a nationally representative sample of US adults in 2 waves: 2001–2002 and 2004–2005. We first considered nonresponse rates in the second wave as a function of key substance-use outcomes in wave 1. We then evaluated 5 alternative approaches designed to correct for nonresponse bias under different attrition mechanisms, including weighting adjustments, multiple imputation, selection models, and pattern-mixture models. Nonignorable attrition in a longitudinal survey can lead to bias in estimates of change in certain health behaviors over time, and only selected procedures enable analysts to assess the sensitivity of their inferences to different assumptions about the extent of nonignorability. We compared estimates based on these 5 approaches, and we suggest a road map for assessing the risk of nonresponse bias in longitudinal studies. We conclude with directions for future research in this area given the results of our evaluations. PMID:28338839

Comparing Error Correction Procedures for Children Diagnosed with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townley-Cochran, Donna; Leaf, Justin B.; Leaf, Ronald; Taubman, Mitchell; McEachin, John

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of two error correction (EC) procedures: modeling alone and the use of an error statement plus modeling. Utilizing an alternating treatments design nested into a multiple baseline design across participants, we sought to evaluate and compare the effects of these two EC procedures used to…

Inhibition of decay fungi using cotton cellulose hydrolysis as a model for wood decay

Treesearch

Frederick Green

2000-01-01

Environmental pressures to replace chromium and arsenic in fixed waterborne preservatives have been increasing. Potential inhibitors of brown-, white- and soft-rot fungi need to be evaluated as alternative preservatives by screening and testing in, in vitro model systems. This paper reports the inhibition of cellulose depolymerization and weight loss of selected decay...

Multiple Alternatives Modeling in Determining Fiscal Roll-Backs during Educational Funding Crises. Interim Draft. Paper and Report Series No. 70.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wholeben, Brent E.; Sullivan, John M.

This report provides an extensive discussion of the use of criterion referenced, mathematical modeling procedures to determine which budget reductions minimize reduction in the quality of educational programs. Part I, "Evaluation of Potential Budgeting Roll-backs under Educational Fiscal Crisis," explains the basic design of multiple…

Predicting regeneration in the grand fir-cedar-hemlock ecosystem of the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Dennis E. Ferguson; Albert R. Stage; Raymond J. Boyd

1986-01-01

Conifer establishment following regeneration treatments can be predicted in the grand fir-cedar-hemlock ecosystem of the northern Rocky Mountains. Alternative treatments can be evaluated by a model that represents regeneration establishment and early development. This model is designed to be used with the Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station's...

Evolutionary Concepts for Decentralized Air Traffic Flow Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Milton; Kolitz, Stephan; Milner, Joseph; Odoni, Amedeo

1997-01-01

Alternative concepts for modifying the policies and procedures under which the air traffic flow management system operates are described, and an approach to the evaluation of those concepts is discussed. Here, air traffic flow management includes all activities related to the management of the flow of aircraft and related system resources from 'block to block.' The alternative concepts represent stages in the evolution from the current system, in which air traffic management decision making is largely centralized within the FAA, to a more decentralized approach wherein the airlines and other airspace users collaborate in air traffic management decision making with the FAA. The emphasis in the discussion is on a viable medium-term partially decentralized scenario representing a phase of this evolution that is consistent with the decision-making approaches embodied in proposed Free Flight concepts for air traffic management. System-level metrics for analyzing and evaluating the various alternatives are defined, and a simulation testbed developed to generate values for those metrics is described. The fundamental issue of modeling airline behavior in decentralized environments is also raised, and an example of such a model, which deals with the preservation of flight bank integrity in hub airports, is presented.

Product design enhancement using apparent usability and affective quality.

PubMed

Seva, Rosemary R; Gosiaco, Katherine Grace T; Santos, Ma Crea Eurice D; Pangilinan, Denise Mae L

2011-03-01

In this study, apparent usability and affective quality were integrated in a design framework called the Usability Perception and Emotion Enhancement Model (UPEEM). The UPEEM was validated using structural equation modeling (SEM). The methodology consists of four phases namely product selection, attribute identification, design alternative generation, and design alternative evaluation. The first stage involved the selection of a product that highly involves the consumer. In the attribute identification stage, design elements of the product were identified. The possible values of these elements were also determined for use in the experimentation process. Design of experiments was used to identify how the attributes will be varied in the design alternative stage and which of the attributes significantly contribute to affective quality, apparent usability, and desirability in the design evaluation stage. Results suggest that product attributes related to form are relevant in eliciting intense affect and perception of usability in mobile phones especially those directly related to functionality and aesthetics. This study considered only four product attributes among so many due to the constraints of the research design employed. Attributes related to aesthetic perception of a product enhance apparent usability such as those related to dimensional ratios. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

OPTIMIZING BMP PLACEMENT AT WATERSHED-SCALE USING SUSTAIN

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed and stormwater managers need modeling tools to evaluate alternative plans for environmental quality restoration and protection needs in urban and developing areas. A watershed-scale decision-support system, based on cost optimization, provides an essential tool to suppo...

U.S. EPA's Watershed Management Research Activities

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed and stormwater managers need modeling tools to evaluate alternative plans for environmental quality restoration and protection needs in urban and developing areas. A watershed-scale decision-support system, based on cost optimization, provides an essential tool to suppo...

Knowledge Acquisition Methods for the IHDS Diagnostic Review Expert System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-12-01

The Federal Highway Administration's Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM) is a suite of CADD-compatible programs that highway designers can use to evaluate the safety effects of various design alternatives. The IHSDM will include a Policy ...

Alternative transportation fuels: Infrastructure requirements and environmental impacts for ethanol and hydrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakeley, Heather L.

Alternative fuels could replace a significant portion of the 140 billion gallons of annual US gasoline use. Considerable attention is being paid to processes and technologies for producing alternative fuels, but an enormous investment in new infrastructure will be needed to have substantial impact on the demand for petroleum. The economics of production, distribution, and use, along with environmental impacts of these fuels, will determine the success or failure of a transition away from US petroleum dependence. This dissertation evaluates infrastructure requirements for ethanol and hydrogen as alternative fuels. It begins with an economic case study for ethanol and hydrogen in Iowa. A large-scale linear optimization model is developed to estimate average transportation distances and costs for nationwide ethanol production and distribution systems. Environmental impacts of transportation in the ethanol life cycle are calculated using the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) model. An EIO-LCA Hybrid method is developed to evaluate impacts of future fuel production technologies. This method is used to estimate emissions for hydrogen production and distribution pathways. Results from the ethanol analyses indicate that the ethanol transportation cost component is significant and is the most variable. Costs for ethanol sold in the Midwest, near primary production centers, are estimated to be comparable to or lower than gasoline costs. Along with a wide range of transportation costs, environmental impacts for ethanol range over three orders of magnitude, depending on the transport required. As a result, intensive ethanol use should be encouraged near ethanol production areas. Fossil fuels are likely to remain the primary feedstock sources for hydrogen production in the near- and mid-term. Costs and environmental impacts of hydrogen produced from natural gas and transported by pipeline are comparable to gasoline. However, capital costs are prohibitive and a significant increase in natural gas demand will likely raise both prices and import quantities. There is an added challenge of developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at costs comparable to conventional vehicles. Two models developed in this thesis have proven useful for evaluating alternative fuels. The linear programming models provide representative estimates of distribution distances for regional fuel use, and thus can be used to estimate costs and environmental impacts. The EIO-LCA Hybrid method is useful for estimating emissions from hydrogen production. This model includes upstream impacts in the LCA, and has the benefit of a lower time and data requirements than a process-based LCA.

Evaluation of RC Bridge Piers Retrofitted using Fiber-Reinforced Polymer (FRP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayanfar, M. A.; Zarrabian, M. S.

2008-07-01

For many long years, steel reinforcements have been considered as the only tool for concrete confinements and studied widely, but nowadays application of Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) as an effective alternative is well appreciated. Many bridges have been constructed in the past that are necessary to be retrofitted for resisting against the earthquake motions. The objective of this research is evaluation of nonlinear behavior of RC bridge piers. Eight RC bridge piers have been modeled by ABAQUS software under micromechanical model for homogeneous anisotropic fibers. Also the Bilinear Confinement Model by Nonlinear Transition Zone of Mirmiran has been considered. Then types and angles of fibers and their effects on the final responses were evaluated [1]. Finally, effects of retrofitting are evaluated and some suggestions presented.

Models of antenatal care to reduce and prevent preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fernandez Turienzo, Cristina; Sandall, Jane; Peacock, Janet L

2016-01-12

To assess the effectiveness of models of antenatal care designed to prevent and reduce preterm birth (PTB) in pregnant women. We conducted a search of seven electronic databases and reference lists of retrieved studies to identify trials from inception up to July 2014 where pregnant women, regardless of risk factors for pregnancy complications, were randomly allocated to receive an alternative model of antenatal care or routine care. We pooled risks of PTB to determine the effect of alternative care models in all pregnant women. We also assessed secondary maternal and infant outcomes, women's satisfaction and economic outcomes. 15 trials involving 22,437 women were included. Pregnant women in alternative care models were less likely to experience PTB (risk ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.96). The subgroup of women randomised to midwife-led continuity models of antenatal care were less likely to experience PTB (0.78, 0.66 to 0.91) but there was no significant difference between this group and women allocated to specialised care (0.92, 0.76 to 1.12) (interaction test for subgroup differences p=0.20). Overall low-risk women in alternative care models were less likely to have PTB (0.74, 0.59 to 0.93), but this effect was not significantly different from that in mixed-risk populations (0.91, 0.79 to 1.05) (subgroup p=0.13). Alternative models of antenatal care for all pregnant women are effective in reducing PTB compared with routine care, but no firm conclusions could be drawn regarding the relative benefits of the two models. Future research should evaluate the impact of antenatal care models which include more recent interventions and predictive tests, and which also offer continuity of care by midwives throughout pregnancy. CRD42014007116. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Potential effects of forest policies on terrestrial biodiversity in a multiownership province.

Treesearch

T.A. Spies; B.C. McComb; R. Kennedy; M.T. McGrath; K. Olsen; R.J. Pabst

2007-01-01

We used spatial simulation models to evaluate how current and two alternative policies might affect potential biodiversity over 100 years in the Coast Ranges Physiographic Province of Oregon. This 2.3-million-ha province is characterized by a diversity of public and private forest owners, and a wide range of forest policy and management objectives. We evaluated habitat...

A Partnership Model for Evaluation: Considering an Alternate Approach to the Internal-External Evaluation Debate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Le Menestrel, Suzanne M.; Walahoski, Jill S.; Mielke, Monica B.

2014-01-01

The 4-H youth development organization is a complex public--private partnership between the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture, the nation's Cooperative Extension system and National 4-H Council, a private, nonprofit partner. The current article is focused on a partnership approach to the…

Spatio-temporal Eigenvector Filtering: Application on Bioenergy Crop Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Kamarianakis, Y.; Georgescu, M.

2017-12-01

A suite of 10-year ensemble-based simulations was conducted to investigate the hydroclimatic impacts due to large-scale deployment of perennial bioenergy crops across the continental United States. Given the large size of the simulated dataset (about 60Tb), traditional hierarchical spatio-temporal statistical modelling cannot be implemented for the evaluation of physics parameterizations and biofuel impacts. In this work, we propose a filtering algorithm that takes into account the spatio-temporal autocorrelation structure of the data while avoiding spatial confounding. This method is used to quantify the robustness of simulated hydroclimatic impacts associated with bioenergy crops to alternative physics parameterizations and observational datasets. Results are evaluated against those obtained from three alternative Bayesian spatio-temporal specifications.

Assessment of the disposal of radioactive petroleum industry waste in nonhazardous landfills using risk-based modeling.

PubMed

Smith, Karen P; Arnish, John J; Williams, Gustavious P; Blunt, Deborah L

2003-05-15

Certain petroleum production activities cause naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) to accumulate in concentrations above natural background levels, making safe and cost-effective management of such technologically enhanced NORM (TENORM) a key issue for the petroleum industry. As a result, both industry and regulators are interested in identifying cost-effective disposal alternatives that provide adequate protection of human health and the environment One such alternative, currently allowed in Michigan with restrictions, is the disposal of TENORM wastes in nonhazardous waste landfills. The disposal of petroleum industry wastes containing radium-226 (Ra-226) in nonhazardous landfills was modeled to evaluate the potential radiological doses and health risks to workers and the public. Multiple scenarios were considered in evaluating the potential risks associated with landfill operations and the future use of the property. The scenarios were defined, in part, to evaluate the Michigan policy; sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the impact of key parameters on potential risks. The results indicate that the disposal of petroleum industry TENORM wastes in nonhazardous landfills in accordance with the Michigan policy and existing landfill regulations presents a negligible risk to most of the potential receptors considered in this study.

An integrated environment for tactical guidance research and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, Kenneth H.; Mcmanus, John W.

1990-01-01

NASA-Langley's Tactical Guidance Research and Evaluation System (TGRES) constitutes an integrated environment for the development of tactical guidance algorithms and evaluating the effects of novel technologies; the modularity of the system allows easy modification or replacement of system elements in order to conduct evaluations of alternative technologies. TGRES differs from existing systems in its capitalization on AI programming techniques for guidance-logic implementation. Its ability to encompass high-fidelity, six-DOF simulation models will facilitate the analysis of complete aircraft dynamics.

Experimental analysis of multi-attribute decision-making based on Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy sets: a discussion of anchor dependency and accuracy functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Yu

2012-06-01

This article presents a useful method for relating anchor dependency and accuracy functions to multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems in the context of Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy sets (A-IFSs). Considering anchored judgement with displaced ideals and solution precision with minimal hesitation, several auxiliary optimisation models have proposed to obtain the optimal weights of the attributes and to acquire the corresponding TOPSIS (the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution) index for alternative rankings. Aside from the TOPSIS index, as a decision-maker's personal characteristics and own perception of self may also influence the direction in the axiom of choice, the evaluation of alternatives is conducted based on distances of each alternative from the positive and negative ideal alternatives, respectively. This article originates from Li's [Li, D.-F. (2005), 'Multiattribute Decision Making Models and Methods Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets', Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 70, 73-85] work, which is a seminal study of intuitionistic fuzzy decision analysis using deduced auxiliary programming models, and deems it a benchmark method for comparative studies on anchor dependency and accuracy functions. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods are illustrated by a numerical example. Finally, a comparative analysis is illustrated with computational experiments on averaging accuracy functions, TOPSIS indices, separation measures from positive and negative ideal alternatives, consistency rates of ranking orders, contradiction rates of the top alternative and average Spearman correlation coefficients.

Plurality of Type A evaluations of uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Possolo, Antonio; Pintar, Adam L.

2017-10-01

The evaluations of measurement uncertainty involving the application of statistical methods to measurement data (Type A evaluations as specified in the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, GUM) comprise the following three main steps: (i) developing a statistical model that captures the pattern of dispersion or variability in the experimental data, and that relates the data either to the measurand directly or to some intermediate quantity (input quantity) that the measurand depends on; (ii) selecting a procedure for data reduction that is consistent with this model and that is fit for the purpose that the results are intended to serve; (iii) producing estimates of the model parameters, or predictions based on the fitted model, and evaluations of uncertainty that qualify either those estimates or these predictions, and that are suitable for use in subsequent uncertainty propagation exercises. We illustrate these steps in uncertainty evaluations related to the measurement of the mass fraction of vanadium in a bituminous coal reference material, including the assessment of the homogeneity of the material, and to the calibration and measurement of the amount-of-substance fraction of a hydrochlorofluorocarbon in air, and of the age of a meteorite. Our goal is to expose the plurality of choices that can reasonably be made when taking each of the three steps outlined above, and to show that different choices typically lead to different estimates of the quantities of interest, and to different evaluations of the associated uncertainty. In all the examples, the several alternatives considered represent choices that comparably competent statisticians might make, but who differ in the assumptions that they are prepared to rely on, and in their selection of approach to statistical inference. They represent also alternative treatments that the same statistician might give to the same data when the results are intended for different purposes.

Evaluating surface transport predictions of alternative ocean-atmosphere models using surface drifters in the Belizean Barrier Reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindo-Atichati, D.; Curcic, M.; Paris, C. B.; Buston, P. M.

2016-02-01

Determining the appropriate resolution of circulation models often lacks statistical evaluation. Thus, the gains from implementing high-resolution versus less-costly low-resolution models are not always clear. Here we construct a hierarchy of ocean-atmosphere models operating at multiple-scales within a 1×1° domain of the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR). We compare the dispersion and velocity of 55 surface drifters released in the field in summer 2013 to the dispersion and velocity of simulated drifters under alternative model configurations. Increasing the resolution of the ocean model (from 1/12° to 1/100°, from 1 day to 1 h), the resolution of the atmosphere model forcing (from 1/2° to 1/100°, from 6 h to 1 h), and incorporating tidal forcing incrementally reduces discrepancy between simulated and observed velocities and dispersion. We also investigate the effect of semi-diurnal tides on the local circulation. The model with highest resolution and with tidal forcing resolves higher number of looping trajectories and sub-mesoscale coherent structures. This may be a key factor in reducing discrepancy between simulated and observed velocities and dispersion. Simulations conducted with the highest resolution ocean-atmosphere model and tidal forcing highlight an intensification of the velocity fields throughout the summer and reveal several processes: mesoscale anticyclonic circulation around Glovers Reef, and recurrent sub-mesoscale cyclonic eddies formed in the vicinity of Columbus Island. This study provides a general framework to estimate the best surface transport prediction from different ocean-atmosphere models using metrics derived from high frequency drifters' data. Also, this study provides an evaluated high-resolution ocean-atmosphere model that resolves tides for the Belizean Barrier Reef.

Description of surface transport in the region of the Belizean Barrier Reef based on observations and alternative high-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindo-Atichati, D.; Curcic, M.; Paris, C. B.; Buston, P. M.

2016-10-01

The gains from implementing high-resolution versus less costly low-resolution models to describe coastal circulation are not always clear, often lacking statistical evaluation. Here we construct a hierarchy of ocean-atmosphere models operating at multiple scales within a 1 × 1° domain of the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR). The various components of the atmosphere-ocean models are evaluated with in situ observations of surface drifters, wind and sea surface temperature. First, we compare the dispersion and velocity of 55 surface drifters released in the field in summer 2013 to the dispersion and velocity of simulated drifters under alternative model configurations. Increasing the resolution of the ocean model (from 1/12° to 1/100°, from 1 day to 1 h) and atmosphere model forcing (from 1/2° to 1/100°, from 6 h to 1 h), and incorporating tidal forcing incrementally reduces discrepancy between simulated and observed velocities and dispersion. Next, in trying to understand why the high-resolution models improve prediction, we find that resolving both the diurnal sea-breeze and semi-diurnal tides is key to improving the Lagrangian statistics and transport predictions along the BBR. Notably, the model with the highest ocean-atmosphere resolution and with tidal forcing generates a higher number of looping trajectories and sub-mesoscale coherent structures that are otherwise unresolved. Finally, simulations conducted with this model from June to August of 2013 show an intensification of the velocity fields throughout the summer and reveal a mesoscale anticyclonic circulation around Glovers Reef, and sub-mesoscale cyclonic eddies formed in the vicinity of Columbus Island. This study provides a general framework to assess the best surface transport prediction from alternative ocean-atmosphere models using metrics derived from high frequency drifters' data and meteorological stations.

Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

2017-03-01

Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

Problems With Risk Reclassification Methods for Evaluating Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Pepe, Margaret S.

2011-01-01

For comparing the performance of a baseline risk prediction model with one that includes an additional predictor, a risk reclassification analysis strategy has been proposed. The first step is to cross-classify risks calculated according to the 2 models for all study subjects. Summary measures including the percentage of reclassification and the percentage of correct reclassification are calculated, along with 2 reclassification calibration statistics. The author shows that interpretations of the proposed summary measures and P values are problematic. The author's recommendation is to display the reclassification table, because it shows interesting information, but to use alternative methods for summarizing and comparing model performance. The Net Reclassification Index has been suggested as one alternative method. The author argues for reporting components of the Net Reclassification Index because they are more clinically relevant than is the single numerical summary measure. PMID:21555714

Simulation-based cutaneous surgical-skill training on a chicken-skin bench model in a medical undergraduate program.

PubMed

Denadai, Rafael; Saad-Hossne, Rogério; Martinhão Souto, Luís Ricardo

2013-05-01

Because of ethical and medico-legal aspects involved in the training of cutaneous surgical skills on living patients, human cadavers and living animals, it is necessary the search for alternative and effective forms of training simulation. To propose and describe an alternative methodology for teaching and learning the principles of cutaneous surgery in a medical undergraduate program by using a chicken-skin bench model. One instructor for every four students, teaching materials on cutaneous surgical skills, chicken trunks, wings, or thighs, a rigid platform support, needled threads, needle holders, surgical blades with scalpel handles, rat-tooth tweezers, scissors, and marking pens were necessary for training simulation. A proposal for simulation-based training on incision, suture, biopsy, and on reconstruction techniques using a chicken-skin bench model distributed in several sessions and with increasing levels of difficultywas structured. Both feedback and objective evaluations always directed to individual students were also outlined. The teaching of a methodology for the principles of cutaneous surgery using a chicken-skin bench model versatile, portable, easy to assemble, and inexpensive is an alternative and complementary option to the armamentarium of methods based on other bench models described.

Evaluation of alternative formulae for calculation of surface temperature in snowmelt models using frequency analysis of temperature observations

Treesearch

C. H. Luce; D. G. Tarboton

2010-01-01

The snow surface temperature is an important quantity in the snow energy balance, since it modulates the exchange of energy between the surface and the atmosphere as well as the conduction of energy into the snowpack. It is therefore important to correctly model snow surface temperatures in energy balance snowmelt models. This paper focuses on the relationship between...

Participatory modeling and structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.

High Power Alternator Test Unit (ATU) Electrical System Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birchenough, Arthur; Hervol, David

2007-01-01

The Alternator Test Unit (ATU) in the Lunar Power System Facility (LPSF) located at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, OH was used to simulate the operating conditions and evaluate the performance of the ATU and it s interaction with various LPSF components in accordance with the JIMO AC Power System Requirements. The testing was carried out at the breadboard development level. Results of these tests will be used for the development and validation of analytical models for performance and lifetime prediction.

A merged model of quality improvement and evaluation: maximizing return on investment.

PubMed

Woodhouse, Lynn D; Toal, Russ; Nguyen, Trang; Keene, DeAnna; Gunn, Laura; Kellum, Andrea; Nelson, Gary; Charles, Simone; Tedders, Stuart; Williams, Natalie; Livingood, William C

2013-11-01

Quality improvement (QI) and evaluation are frequently considered to be alternative approaches for monitoring and assessing program implementation and impact. The emphasis on third-party evaluation, particularly associated with summative evaluation, and the grounding of evaluation in the social and behavioral science contrast with an emphasis on the integration of QI process within programs or organizations and its origins in management science and industrial engineering. Working with a major philanthropic organization in Georgia, we illustrate how a QI model is integrated with evaluation for five asthma prevention and control sites serving poor and underserved communities in rural and urban Georgia. A primary foundation of this merged model of QI and evaluation is a refocusing of the evaluation from an intimidating report card summative evaluation by external evaluators to an internally engaged program focus on developmental evaluation. The benefits of the merged model to both QI and evaluation are discussed. The use of evaluation based logic models can help anchor a QI program in evidence-based practice and provide linkage between process and outputs with the longer term distal outcomes. Merging the QI approach with evaluation has major advantages, particularly related to enhancing the funder's return on investment. We illustrate how a Plan-Do-Study-Act model of QI can (a) be integrated with evaluation based logic models, (b) help refocus emphasis from summative to developmental evaluation, (c) enhance program ownership and engagement in evaluation activities, and (d) increase the role of evaluators in providing technical assistance and support.

The effect of alternative work arrangements on women's well-being: a demand-control model.

PubMed

Kelloway, E K; Gottlieb, B H

1998-01-01

The growth of women's participation in the labor force and evidence of the conflict they experience between job and family demands have spurred many employers to introduce alternative work arrangements such as flextime, job sharing, and telecommuting. Drawing on data gained from a sample of women (N = 998) in two large Canadian organizations, this study evaluates two mediational models of the impact of alternative work arrangements on women's stress and family role competence. Specifically, it tests and finds support for the hypotheses that (a) work arrangements involving scheduling flexibility (telecommuting and flextime) promote these aspects of women's well-being by increasing their perceived control over their time, and (b) arrangements involving reduced hours of employment (part-time employment and job sharing) promote well-being by reducing perceived job overload. Discussion of these findings centers on their implications for employed women, their employers, and future research.

Reconsidering formative measurement.

PubMed

Howell, Roy D; Breivik, Einar; Wilcox, James B

2007-06-01

The relationship between observable responses and the latent constructs they are purported to measure has received considerable attention recently, with particular focus on what has become known as formative measurement. This alternative to reflective measurement in the area of theory-testing research is examined in the context of the potential for interpretational confounding and a construct's ability to function as a point variable within a larger model. Although these issues have been addressed in the traditional reflective measurement context, the authors suggest that they are particularly relevant in evaluating formative measurement models. On the basis of this analysis, the authors conclude that formative measurement is not an equally attractive alternative to reflective measurement and that whenever possible, in developing new measures or choosing among alternative existing measures, researchers should opt for reflective measurement. In addition, the authors provide guidelines for researchers dealing with existing formative measures. Copyright 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Keeney, Ralph L

2017-03-01

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluating the sources of water to wells: Three techniques for metamodeling of a groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Feinstein, Daniel T.

2016-01-01

For decision support, the insights and predictive power of numerical process models can be hampered by insufficient expertise and computational resources required to evaluate system response to new stresses. An alternative is to emulate the process model with a statistical “metamodel.” Built on a dataset of collocated numerical model input and output, a groundwater flow model was emulated using a Bayesian Network, an Artificial neural network, and a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. The response of interest was surface water depletion expressed as the source of water-to-wells. The results have application for managing allocation of groundwater. Each technique was tuned using cross validation and further evaluated using a held-out dataset. A numerical MODFLOW-USG model of the Lake Michigan Basin, USA, was used for the evaluation. The performance and interpretability of each technique was compared pointing to advantages of each technique. The metamodel can extend to unmodeled areas.

A Watershed-scale Design Optimization Model for Stormwater Best Management Practices

EPA Science Inventory

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency developed a decision-support system, System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis Integration (SUSTAIN), to evaluate alternative plans for stormwater quality management and flow abatement techniques in urban and developing areas. SUSTAI...

Biodiesel Research : Alternative Fuels & Life-Cycle Engineering Program : November 29, 2006 to November 28, 2011

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-20

The primary objective of this project is to develop multiple simulation Testbeds/transportation models to evaluate the impacts of DMA connected vehicle applications and the active and dynamic transportation management (ATDM) strategies. The outputs (...

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard.

EPA Science Inventory

One of the lnteragency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Method's (ICCVAM) top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary to produce skin sensiti...

K-ABC and Controversy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaufman, Alan S.

1984-01-01

A response to 13 articles on the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children address seven areas: validity, theory underlying the intelligence portion, role of the clinicians in intellectual assessment, distinction between ability and achievement, evaluation of alternate models, remedial applications of the sequential-simultaneous processing…

Comparison of safety effect estimates obtained from empirical Bayes before-after study, propensity scores-potential outcomes framework, and regression model with cross-sectional data.

PubMed

Wood, Jonathan S; Donnell, Eric T; Porter, Richard J

2015-02-01

A variety of different study designs and analysis methods have been used to evaluate the performance of traffic safety countermeasures. The most common study designs and methods include observational before-after studies using the empirical Bayes method and cross-sectional studies using regression models. The propensity scores-potential outcomes framework has recently been proposed as an alternative traffic safety countermeasure evaluation method to address the challenges associated with selection biases that can be part of cross-sectional studies. Crash modification factors derived from the application of all three methods have not yet been compared. This paper compares the results of retrospective, observational evaluations of a traffic safety countermeasure using both before-after and cross-sectional study designs. The paper describes the strengths and limitations of each method, focusing primarily on how each addresses site selection bias, which is a common issue in observational safety studies. The Safety Edge paving technique, which seeks to mitigate crashes related to roadway departure events, is the countermeasure used in the present study to compare the alternative evaluation methods. The results indicated that all three methods yielded results that were consistent with each other and with previous research. The empirical Bayes results had the smallest standard errors. It is concluded that the propensity scores with potential outcomes framework is a viable alternative analysis method to the empirical Bayes before-after study. It should be considered whenever a before-after study is not possible or practical. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a Human Motor Model for the Evaluation of an Integrated Alerting and Notification Flight Deck System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daiker, Ron; Schnell, Thomas

2010-01-01

A human motor model was developed on the basis of performance data that was collected in a flight simulator. The motor model is under consideration as one component of a virtual pilot model for the evaluation of NextGen crew alerting and notification systems in flight decks. This model may be used in a digital Monte Carlo simulation to compare flight deck layout design alternatives. The virtual pilot model is being developed as part of a NASA project to evaluate multiple crews alerting and notification flight deck configurations. Model parameters were derived from empirical distributions of pilot data collected in a flight simulator experiment. The goal of this model is to simulate pilot motor performance in the approach-to-landing task. The unique challenges associated with modeling the complex dynamics of humans interacting with the cockpit environment are discussed, along with the current state and future direction of the model.

Benefit-cost evaluation of an intra-regional air service in the Bay area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haefner, L. E.

1977-01-01

Utilization of an iterative statistical model is presented to evaluate combinations of commuter airport sites and surface transportation facilities in confunction with service by a given commuter aircraft type in light of Bay Area regional growth alternatives and peak and off-peak regional travel patterns. The model evaluates such transportation options with respect to criteria of airline profitability, public acceptance, and public and private nonuser costs. It incorporates information modal split, peak and off-peak use of the air commuter fleet, terminal and airport cost, development costs and uses of land in proximity to the airport sites, regional population shifts, and induced zonal shifts in travel demand. The model is multimodal in its analytical capability, and performs exhaustive sensitivity analysis.

A proposed model membrane and test method for microneedle insertion studies.

PubMed

Larrañeta, Eneko; Moore, Jessica; Vicente-Pérez, Eva M; González-Vázquez, Patricia; Lutton, Rebecca; Woolfson, A David; Donnelly, Ryan F

2014-09-10

A commercial polymeric film (Parafilm M(®), a blend of a hydrocarbon wax and a polyolefin) was evaluated as a model membrane for microneedle (MN) insertion studies. Polymeric MN arrays were inserted into Parafilm M(®) (PF) and also into excised neonatal porcine skin. Parafilm M(®) was folded before the insertions to closely approximate thickness of the excised skin. Insertion depths were evaluated using optical coherence tomography (OCT) using either a force applied by a Texture Analyser or by a group of human volunteers. The obtained insertion depths were, in general, slightly lower, especially for higher forces, for PF than for skin. However, this difference was not a large, being less than the 10% of the needle length. Therefore, all these data indicate that this model membrane could be a good alternative to biological tissue for MN insertion studies. As an alternative method to OCT, light microscopy was used to evaluate the insertion depths of MN in the model membrane. This provided a rapid, simple method to compare different MN formulations. The use of Parafilm M(®), in conjunction with a standardised force/time profile applied by a Texture Analyser, could provide the basis for a rapid MN quality control test suitable for in-process use. It could also be used as a comparative test of insertion efficiency between candidate MN formulations. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

One of the lnteragency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Method's (ICCVAM) top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary to produce skin sensitization suggests that no single alternative method will replace the currently accepted animal tests. ICCVAM is evaluating an integrated approach to testing and assessment based on the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization that uses machine learning approaches to predict human skin sensitization hazard. We combined data from three in chemico or in vitro assays - the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT) and KeratinoSens TM assay - six physicochemical properties and an in silico read-across prediction of skin sensitization hazard into 12 variable groups. The variable groups were evaluated using two machine learning approaches , logistic regression and support vector machine, to predict human skin sensitization hazard. Models were trained on 72 substances and tested on an external set of 24 substances. The six models (three logistic regression and three support vector machine) with the highest accuracy (92%) used: (1) DPRA, h-CLAT and read-across; (2) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across and KeratinoSens; or (3) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across, KeratinoSens and log P. The models performed better at predicting human skin sensitization hazard than the murine

Urban Transportation Planning Short Course: Evaluation of Alternative Transportation Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Federal Highway Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

This urban transportation pamphlet delves into the roles of policy groups and technical staffs in evaluating alternative transportation plans, evaluation criteria, systems to evaluate, and evaluation procedures. The introduction admits the importance of subjective, but informed, judgment as an effective tool in weighing alternative transportation…

Evaluations of the Combat Ready Clamp to Control Bleeding in Human Cadavers, Manikins, Swine Femoral Artery Hemorrhage Model and Swine Carcasses

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

some advantages over alternative live tissue models when a mechanical device is employed to reduce arterial flow rates. Authentic human anatomy is...vessels to reduce and stop blood flow require authentic human anatomy for optimal testing. Cadaver I was approximately 60 year old male with a total

Sensitivity analysis of a pulse nutrient addition technique for estimating nutrient uptake in large streams

Treesearch

Laurence Lin; J.R. Webster

2012-01-01

The constant nutrient addition technique has been used extensively to measure nutrient uptake in streams. However, this technique is impractical for large streams, and the pulse nutrient addition (PNA) has been suggested as an alternative. We developed a computer model to simulate Monod kinetics nutrient uptake in large rivers and used this model to evaluate the...

Stage Structure of Moral Development: A Comparison of Alternative Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hau, Kit-Tai

This study evaluated the stage structure of several quasi-simplex and non-simplex models of moral development in two domains of moral development in a British and a Chinese sample. Analyses were based on data reported by Sachs (1992): the Chinese sample consisted of 1,005 students from grade 9 to post-college, and the British sample consisted of…

A Model of Small-Group Problem-Based Learning in Pharmacy Education: Teaching in the Clinical Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khumsikiew, Jeerisuda; Donsamak, Sisira; Saeteaw, Manit

2015-01-01

Problem-based Learning (PBL) is an alternate method of instruction that incorporates basic elements of cognitive learning theory. Colleges of pharmacy use PBL to aid anticipated learning outcomes and practice competencies for pharmacy student. The purpose of this study were to implement and evaluate a model of small group PBL for 5th year pharmacy…

Stiffness analysis of glued connection of the timber-concrete structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daňková, Jana; Mec, Pavel; Majstríková, Tereza

2016-01-01

This paper presents results of experimental and mathematical analysis of stiffness characteristics of a composite timber-concrete structure. The composite timberconcrete structure presented herein is non-typical compared to similar types of building structures. The interaction between the timber and concrete part of the composite cross-section is not based on metal connecting elements, but it is ensured by a glued-in perforated mesh made of plywood. The paper presents results of experimental and mathematical analysis for material alternatives of the solution of the glued joint. The slip modulus values were determined experimentally. Data obtained from the experiment evaluated by means of regression analysis. Test results were also used as input data for the compilation of a 3D model of a composite structure by means of the 3D finite element model. On the basis of result evaluation, it can be stated that the stress-deformation behaviour at shear loading of this specific timber-concrete composite structure can be affected by the type of glue used. Parameters of the 3D model of both alternative of the structure represent well the behaviour of the composite structure and the model can be used for predicting design parameters of a building structure.

Evaluation of the Occupational Risks from Jet Fuel (Toxicity Screening Battery)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

1α may serve as a marker of epidermal damage or stress due to irritation in this in vitro model. As an alternative to the 3-dimensional human skin...AFRL-RH-FS-SR-2013-0003 Final Report: Evaluation of the Occupational Risks from Jet Fuel (Toxicity Screening Battery) David R. Mattie...2. REPORT TYPE Special Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Oct 2010 – Dec 2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Evaluation of the Occupational Risks from

Small Business Innovations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The purpose of QASE RT is to enable system analysts and software engineers to evaluate performance and reliability implications of design alternatives. The program resulted from two Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) projects. After receiving a description of the system architecture and workload from the user, QASE RT translates the system description into simulation models and executes them. Simulation provides detailed performance evaluation. The results of the evaluations are service and response times, offered load and device utilizations and functional availability.

Examining hydrogen transitions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Plotkin, S. E.; Energy Systems

2007-03-01

This report describes the results of an effort to identify key analytic issues associated with modeling a transition to hydrogen as a fuel for light duty vehicles, and using insights gained from this effort to suggest ways to improve ongoing modeling efforts. The study reported on here examined multiple hydrogen scenarios reported in the literature, identified modeling issues associated with those scenario analyses, and examined three DOE-sponsored hydrogen transition models in the context of those modeling issues. The three hydrogen transition models are HyTrans (contractor: Oak Ridge National Laboratory), MARKAL/DOE* (Brookhaven National Laboratory), and NEMS-H2 (OnLocation, Inc). The goals ofmore » these models are (1) to help DOE improve its R&D effort by identifying key technology and other roadblocks to a transition and testing its technical program goals to determine whether they are likely to lead to the market success of hydrogen technologies, (2) to evaluate alternative policies to promote a transition, and (3) to estimate the costs and benefits of alternative pathways to hydrogen development.« less

The algorithmic anatomy of model-based evaluation

PubMed Central

Daw, Nathaniel D.; Dayan, Peter

2014-01-01

Despite many debates in the first half of the twentieth century, it is now largely a truism that humans and other animals build models of their environments and use them for prediction and control. However, model-based (MB) reasoning presents severe computational challenges. Alternative, computationally simpler, model-free (MF) schemes have been suggested in the reinforcement learning literature, and have afforded influential accounts of behavioural and neural data. Here, we study the realization of MB calculations, and the ways that this might be woven together with MF values and evaluation methods. There are as yet mostly only hints in the literature as to the resulting tapestry, so we offer more preview than review. PMID:25267820

Scripting MODFLOW Model Development Using Python and FloPy.

PubMed

Bakker, M; Post, V; Langevin, C D; Hughes, J D; White, J T; Starn, J J; Fienen, M N

2016-09-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

Special Education Audit. Evaluation Department Report No. 429 and Description of the District's Special Education Programs. Evaluation Department Report No. 429A (Supplement to Report No. 429).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Diego City Schools, CA. Planning, Research and Evaluation Div.

An independent audit of the San Diego (California) special education department was commissioned to examine: (1) whether programs exceed mandates of federal and state law, (2) whether the district has maximized funding sources in reporting programs and costs; and (3) whether alternative service delivery models or community interagency…

The effect of a honey based gel and silver sulphadiazine on bacterial infections of in vitro burn wounds.

PubMed

Boekema, B K H L; Pool, L; Ulrich, M M W

2013-06-01

Bacterial contamination remains a constant threat in burn wound care. Topical treatments to combat contaminations have good bactericidal effects but can have detrimental effects for the healing process. Treatments with for example silver can increase healing times. Honey based products can be a good alternative as it is antibacterial and patient-friendly. We evaluated the bactericidal and cytotoxic effects of a honey based gel and silver sulphadiazine in a human burn wound model with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. After adding 10(5)colony forming units of P. aeruginosa, topical treatments were applied on the burn wound models. After 2, 12, 24, 28 and 70 h, bacteria were dislodged and counted by plating dilutions. Cytotoxic effects were evaluated histologically in samples of burn wound models treated topically for 3 weeks, without bacteria. L-Mesitran Soft significantly reduced the bacterial load (5-log reduction) up to 24h but did not completely eliminate bacteria from the burn wounds. After Flammazine(®) treatment, only a few colony forming units were observed at all time points. In contrast, re-epithelialization was significantly reduced after application of Flammazine(®) compared to L-Mesitran Soft or control. This in vitro model of burn wound infection can be used to evaluate topical treatments. L-Mesitran Soft is a good alternative for treating burn wounds but the slightly lower bactericidal activity in the burn wound model warrants a higher frequency of application. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Never too old for anonymity: a statistical standard for demographic data sharing via the HIPAA Privacy Rule

PubMed Central

Benitez, Kathleen; Masys, Daniel

2010-01-01

Objective Healthcare organizations must de-identify patient records before sharing data. Many organizations rely on the Safe Harbor Standard of the HIPAA Privacy Rule, which enumerates 18 identifiers that must be suppressed (eg, ages over 89). An alternative model in the Privacy Rule, known as the Statistical Standard, can facilitate the sharing of more detailed data, but is rarely applied because of a lack of published methodologies. The authors propose an intuitive approach to de-identifying patient demographics in accordance with the Statistical Standard. Design The authors conduct an analysis of the demographics of patient cohorts in five medical centers developed for the NIH-sponsored Electronic Medical Records and Genomics network, with respect to the US census. They report the re-identification risk of patient demographics disclosed according to the Safe Harbor policy and the relative risk rate for sharing such information via alternative policies. Measurements The re-identification risk of Safe Harbor demographics ranged from 0.01% to 0.19%. The findings show alternative de-identification models can be created with risks no greater than Safe Harbor. The authors illustrate that the disclosure of patient ages over the age of 89 is possible when other features are reduced in granularity. Limitations The de-identification approach described in this paper was evaluated with demographic data only and should be evaluated with other potential identifiers. Conclusion Alternative de-identification policies to the Safe Harbor model can be derived for patient demographics to enable the disclosure of values that were previously suppressed. The method is generalizable to any environment in which population statistics are available. PMID:21169618

Accounting for costs, QALYs, and capacity constraints: using discrete-event simulation to evaluate alternative service delivery and organizational scenarios for hospital-based glaucoma services.

PubMed

Crane, Glenis J; Kymes, Steven M; Hiller, Janet E; Casson, Robert; Martin, Adam; Karnon, Jonathan D

2013-11-01

Decision-analytic models are routinely used as a framework for cost-effectiveness analyses of health care services and technologies; however, these models mostly ignore resource constraints. In this study, we use a discrete-event simulation model to inform a cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative options for the organization and delivery of clinical services in the ophthalmology department of a public hospital. The model is novel, given that it represents both disease outcomes and resource constraints in a routine clinical setting. A 5-year discrete-event simulation model representing glaucoma patient services at the Royal Adelaide Hospital (RAH) was implemented and calibrated to patient-level data. The data were sourced from routinely collected waiting and appointment lists, patient record data, and the published literature. Patient-level costs and quality-adjusted life years were estimated for a range of alternative scenarios, including combinations of alternate follow-up times, booking cycles, and treatment pathways. The model shows that a) extending booking cycle length from 4 to 6 months, b) extending follow-up visit times by 2 to 3 months, and c) using laser in preference to medication are more cost-effective than current practice at the RAH eye clinic. The current simulation model provides a useful tool for informing improvements in the organization and delivery of glaucoma services at a local level (e.g., within a hospital), on the basis of expected effects on costs and health outcomes while accounting for current capacity constraints. Our model may be adapted to represent glaucoma services at other hospitals, whereas the general modeling approach could be applied to many other clinical service areas.

Modeling and Evaluation of Miles-in-Trail Restrictions in the National Air Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar

2003-01-01

Miles-in-trail restrictions impact flights in the national air space on a daily basis and these restrictions routinely propagate between adjacent Air Route Traffic Control Centers. Since overly restrictive or ineffective miles-in-trail restrictions can reduce the overall efficiency of the national air space, decision support capabilities that model miles-in-trail restrictions should prove to be very beneficial. This paper presents both an analytical formulation and a linear programming approach for modeling the effects of miles-in-trail restrictions. A methodology for monitoring the conformance of an existing miles-in-trail restriction is also presented. These capabilities have been implemented in the Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool for testing purposes. To allow alternative restrictions to be evaluated in post-operations, a new mode of operation, which is referred to as the hybrid-playback mode, has been implemented in the simulation environment. To demonstrate the capabilities of these new algorithms, the miles-in-trail restrictions, which were in effect on June 27, 2002 in the New York Terminal Radar Approach Control, are examined. Results from the miles-in-trail conformance monitoring functionality are presented for the ELIOT, PARKE and WHITE departure fixes. In addition, the miles-in-trail algorithms are used to assess the impact of alternative restrictions at the PARKE departure fix.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Process Identification under Model Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Dai, H.; Walker, A. P.; Shi, L.; Yang, J.

2015-12-01

The environmental system consists of various physical, chemical, and biological processes, and environmental models are always built to simulate these processes and their interactions. For model building, improvement, and validation, it is necessary to identify important processes so that limited resources can be used to better characterize the processes. While global sensitivity analysis has been widely used to identify important processes, the process identification is always based on deterministic process conceptualization that uses a single model for representing a process. However, environmental systems are complex, and it happens often that a single process may be simulated by multiple alternative models. Ignoring the model uncertainty in process identification may lead to biased identification in that identified important processes may not be so in the real world. This study addresses this problem by developing a new method of global sensitivity analysis for process identification. The new method is based on the concept of Sobol sensitivity analysis and model averaging. Similar to the Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters, our new method evaluates variance change when a process is fixed at its different conceptualizations. The variance considers both parametric and model uncertainty using the method of model averaging. The method is demonstrated using a synthetic study of groundwater modeling that considers recharge process and parameterization process. Each process has two alternative models. Important processes of groundwater flow and transport are evaluated using our new method. The method is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of environmental problems.

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Skin Sensitization Hazard in Humans

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s highest priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single alternative me...

Ecosystem Services and Environmental Markets in Chesapeake Bay Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

This report contains two separate analyses, both of which make use of an optimization framework previously developed to evaluate trade-offs in alternative restoration strategies to achieve the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). The first analysis expands on model app...

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard

EPA Science Inventory

One of ICCVAM’s top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary for a substance to elicit a skin sensitization reaction suggests that no single alternative method...

Preparation time and perceptions of Brazilian specialists and dental students regarding simulated root canals for endodontic teaching: a preliminary study.

PubMed

dos S Luz, Diandra; de S Ourique, Fernanda; Scarparo, Roberta K; Vier-Pelisser, Fabiana V; Morgental, Renata D; Waltrick, Silvana B G; de Figueiredo, José A P

2015-01-01

The aim of this preliminary study was to evaluate the desirability of alternative models of artificial teeth versus extracted natural teeth for use in preclinical dental education. Specifically, the study was designed to compare the preparation time and perceptions of difficulty of undergraduate dental students and endodontists in carrying out root canal preparations on resin models (both clear and opaque) and extracted natural teeth. Twenty participants-ten fifth-year students at a Brazilian dental school and ten endodontists with at least five years' experience in the specialty-performed root canal instrumentation on two samples of each model. Preparation times were recorded, and the participants completed a questionnaire about the anatomical and physical characteristics of these models. The results showed that the time required for performing endodontic procedures in the natural teeth was higher than in the alternative models. The perceptions of the students and specialists regarding some topics on the questionnaire were significantly different. The students had more positive opinions about artificial teeth made of opaque resin, while the specialists had more positive opinions about simulated root canals in clear resin blocks. This study suggests that neither of the alternative models fulfilled requirements to replace natural teeth in endodontic teaching; improvements are still necessary to accomplish this goal.

ENGINEERING STUDY FOR THE 200 AREA EFFLUENT TREATMENT FACILITY (ETF) SECONDARY WASTE TREATMENT OF PROJECTED FUTURE WASTE FEEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LUECK, K.J.

2004-10-18

This report documents an engineering study conducted to evaluate alternatives for treating secondary waste in the secondary treatment train (STT) of the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). The study evaluates ETF STT treatment alternatives and recommends preferred alternatives for meeting the projected future missions of the ETF. The preferred alternative(s) will process projected future ETF influents to produce a solid waste acceptable for final disposal on the Hanford Site. The main text of this report summarizes the ETF past and projected operations, lists the assumptions about projected operations that provide the basis for the engineering evaluation, andmore » summarizes the evaluation process. The evaluation process includes identification of available modifications to the current ETF process, screens those modifications for technical viability, evaluates the technically viable alternatives, and provides conclusions and recommendations based on that evaluation.« less

Annual Screening Strategies in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Gene Mutation Carriers: A Comparative Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Lowry, Kathryn P.; Lee, Janie M.; Kong, Chung Y.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Cott Chubiz, Jessica E.; Pisano, Etta D.; Gatsonis, Constantine; Ryan, Paula D.; Ozanne, Elissa M.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2011-01-01

Background While breast cancer screening with mammography and MRI is recommended for BRCA mutation carriers, there is no current consensus on the optimal screening regimen. Methods We used a computer simulation model to compare six annual screening strategies [film mammography (FM), digital mammography (DM), FM and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or DM and MRI contemporaneously, and alternating FM/MRI or DM/MRI at six-month intervals] beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40, and two strategies of annual MRI with delayed alternating DM/FM to clinical surveillance alone. Strategies were evaluated without and with mammography-induced breast cancer risk, using two models of excess relative risk. Input parameters were obtained from the medical literature, publicly available databases, and calibration. Results Without radiation risk effects, alternating DM/MRI starting at age 25 provided the highest life expectancy (BRCA1: 72.52 years, BRCA2: 77.63 years). When radiation risk was included, a small proportion of diagnosed cancers were attributable to radiation exposure (BRCA1: <2%, BRCA2: <4%). With radiation risk, alternating DM/MRI at age 25 or annual MRI at age 25/delayed alternating DM at age 30 were most effective, depending on the radiation risk model used. Alternating DM/MRI starting at age 25 also had the highest number of false-positive screens/person (BRCA1: 4.5, BRCA2: 8.1). Conclusions Annual MRI at 25/delayed alternating DM at age 30 is likely the most effective screening strategy in BRCA mutation carriers. Screening benefits, associated risks and personal acceptance of false-positive results, should be considered in choosing the optimal screening strategy for individual women. PMID:21935911

Alternative methods to evaluate trial level surrogacy.

PubMed

Abrahantes, Josè Cortiñas; Shkedy, Ziv; Molenberghs, Geert

2008-01-01

The evaluation and validation of surrogate endpoints have been extensively studied in the last decade. Prentice [1] and Freedman, Graubard and Schatzkin [2] laid the foundations for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in randomized clinical trials. Later, Buyse et al. [5] proposed a meta-analytic methodology, producing different methods for different settings, which was further studied by Alonso and Molenberghs [9], in their unifying approach based on information theory. In this article, we focus our attention on the trial-level surrogacy and propose alternative procedures to evaluate such surrogacy measure, which do not pre-specify the type of association. A promising correction based on cross-validation is investigated. As well as the construction of confidence intervals for this measure. In order to avoid making assumption about the type of relationship between the treatment effects and its distribution, a collection of alternative methods, based on regression trees, bagging, random forests, and support vector machines, combined with bootstrap-based confidence interval and, should one wish, in conjunction with a cross-validation based correction, will be proposed and applied. We apply the various strategies to data from three clinical studies: in opthalmology, in advanced colorectal cancer, and in schizophrenia. The results obtained for the three case studies are compared; they indicate that using random forest or bagging models produces larger estimated values for the surrogacy measure, which are in general stabler and the confidence interval narrower than linear regression and support vector regression. For the advanced colorectal cancer studies, we even found the trial-level surrogacy is considerably different from what has been reported. In general the alternative methods are more computationally demanding, and specially the calculation of the confidence intervals, require more computational time that the delta-method counterpart. First, more flexible modeling techniques can be used, allowing for other type of association. Second, when no cross-validation-based correction is applied, overly optimistic trial-level surrogacy estimates will be found, thus cross-validation is highly recommendable. Third, the use of the delta method to calculate confidence intervals is not recommendable since it makes assumptions valid only in very large samples. It may also produce range-violating limits. We therefore recommend alternatives: bootstrap methods in general. Also, the information-theoretic approach produces comparable results with the bagging and random forest approaches, when cross-validation correction is applied. It is also important to observe that, even for the case in which the linear model might be a good option too, bagging methods perform well too, and their confidence intervals were more narrow.

A behavioral and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J

2010-10-27

Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single-choice contexts, there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal predetermined strategy, regardless of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously reevaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of reevaluating decision utilities, in which available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance, and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes.

Insights on in vitro models for safety and toxicity assessment of cosmetic ingredients.

PubMed

Almeida, Andreia; Sarmento, Bruno; Rodrigues, Francisca

2017-03-15

According to the current European legislation, the safety assessment of each individual cosmetic ingredient of any formulation is the basis for the safety evaluation of a cosmetic product. Also, animal testing in the European Union is prohibited for cosmetic ingredients and products since 2004 and 2009, respectively. Additionally, the commercialization of any cosmetic products containing ingredients tested on animal models was forbidden in 2009. In consequence of these boundaries, the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) proposes a list of validated cell-based in vitro models for predicting the safety and toxicity of cosmetic ingredients. These models have been demonstrated as valuable and effective tools to overcome the limitations of animal in vivo studies. Although the use of in vitro cell-based models for the evaluation of absorption and permeability of cosmetic ingredients is widespread, a detailed study on the properties of these platforms and the in vitro-in vivo correlation compared with human data are required. Moreover, additional efforts must be taken to develop in vitro models to predict carcinogenicity, repeat dose toxicity and reproductive toxicity, for which no alternative in vitro methods are currently available. This review paper summarizes and characterizes the most relevant in vitro models validated by ECVAM employed to predict the safety and toxicology of cosmetic ingredients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A PROGRAM FOR ARTIFICIAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichard, Eric G.; Bredehoeft, John D.

1984-01-01

This study describes and demonstrates two alternate methods for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of artificial groundwater recharge using percolation ponds. The first analysis considers the benefits to be the reduction of pumping lifts and land subsidence; the second considers benefits as the alternative costs of a comparable surface delivery system. Example computations are carried out for an existing artificial recharge program in Santa Clara Valley in California. A computer groundwater model is used to estimate both the average long term and the drought period effects of artificial recharge in the study area. Results indicate that the costs of artificial recharge are considerably smaller than the alternative costs of an equivalent surface system. Refs.

Capturing the DSM-5 Alternative Personality Disorder Model Traits in the Five-Factor Model's Nomological Net.

PubMed

Suzuki, Takakuni; Griffin, Sarah A; Samuel, Douglas B

2017-04-01

Several studies have shown structural and statistical similarities between the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th ed.; DSM-5) alternative personality disorder model and the Five-Factor Model (FFM). However, no study to date has evaluated the nomological network similarities between the two models. The relations of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO PI-R) and the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5) with relevant criterion variables were examined in a sample of 336 undergraduate students (M age  = 19.4; 59.8% female). The resulting profiles for each instrument were statistically compared for similarity. Four of the five domains of the two models have highly similar nomological networks, with the exception being FFM Openness to Experience and PID-5 Psychoticism. Further probing of that pair suggested that the NEO PI-R domain scores obscured meaningful similarity between PID-5 Psychoticism and specific aspects and lower-order facets of Openness. The results support the notion that the DSM-5 alternative personality disorder model trait domains represent variants of the FFM domains. Similarities of Openness and Psychoticism domains were supported when the lower-order aspects and facets of Openness domain were considered. The findings support the view that the DSM-5 trait model represents an instantiation of the FFM. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quantified choice of root-mean-square errors of approximation for evaluation and power analysis of small differences between structural equation models.

PubMed

Li, Libo; Bentler, Peter M

2011-06-01

MacCallum, Browne, and Cai (2006) proposed a new framework for evaluation and power analysis of small differences between nested structural equation models (SEMs). In their framework, the null and alternative hypotheses for testing a small difference in fit and its related power analyses were defined by some chosen root-mean-square error of approximation (RMSEA) pairs. In this article, we develop a new method that quantifies those chosen RMSEA pairs and allows a quantitative comparison of them. Our method proposes the use of single RMSEA values to replace the choice of RMSEA pairs for model comparison and power analysis, thus avoiding the differential meaning of the chosen RMSEA pairs inherent in the approach of MacCallum et al. (2006). With this choice, the conventional cutoff values in model overall evaluation can directly be transferred and applied to the evaluation and power analysis of model differences. © 2011 American Psychological Association

External Peer Review Team Report Underground Testing Area Subproject for Frenchman Flat, Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sam Marutzky

2010-09-01

An external peer review was conducted to review the groundwater models used in the corrective action investigation stage of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) subproject to forecast zones of potential contamination in 1,000 years for the Frenchman Flat area. The goal of the external peer review was to provide technical evaluation of the studies and to assist in assessing the readiness of the UGTA subproject to progress to monitoring activities for further model evaluation. The external peer review team consisted of six independent technical experts with expertise in geology, hydrogeology,'''groundwater modeling, and radiochemistry. The peer review team was tasked withmore » addressing the following questions: 1. Are the modeling approaches, assumptions, and model results for Frenchman Flat consistent with the use of modeling studies as a decision tool for resolution of environmental and regulatory requirements? 2. Do the modeling results adequately account for uncertainty in models of flow and transport in the Frenchman Flat hydrological setting? a. Are the models of sufficient scale/resolution to adequately predict contaminant transport in the Frenchman Flat setting? b. Have all key processes been included in the model? c. Are the methods used to forecast contaminant boundaries from the transport modeling studies reasonable and appropriate? d. Are the assessments of uncertainty technically sound and consistent with state-of-the-art approaches currently used in the hydrological sciences? 3. Are the datasets and modeling results adequate for a transition to Corrective Action Unit monitoring studies—the next stage in the UGTA strategy for Frenchman Flat? The peer review team is of the opinion that, with some limitations, the modeling approaches, assumptions, and model results are consistent with the use of modeling studies for resolution of environmental and regulatory requirements. The peer review team further finds that the modeling studies have accounted for uncertainty in models of flow and transport in the Frenchman Flat except for a few deficiencies described in the report. Finally, the peer review team concludes that the UGTA subproject has explored a wide range of variations in assumptions, methods, and data, and should proceed to the next stage with an emphasis on monitoring studies. The corrective action strategy, as described in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, states that the groundwater flow and transport models for each corrective action unit will consider, at a minimum, the following: • Alternative hydrostratigraphic framework models of the modeling domain. • Uncertainty in the radiological and hydrological source terms. • Alternative models of recharge. • Alternative boundary conditions and groundwater flows. • Multiple permissive sets of calibrated flow models. • Probabilistic simulations of transport using plausible sets of alternative framework and recharge models, and boundary and groundwater flows from calibrated flow models. • Ensembles of forecasts of contaminant boundaries. • Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of model outputs. The peer review team finds that these minimum requirements have been met. While the groundwater modeling and uncertainty analyses have been quite detailed, the peer review team has identified several modeling-related issues that should be addressed in the next phase of the corrective action activities: • Evaluating and using water-level gradients from the pilot wells at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site in model calibration. • Re-evaluating the use of geochemical age-dating data to constrain model calibrations. • Developing water budgets for the alluvial and upper volcanic aquifer systems in Frenchman Flat. • Considering modeling approaches in which calculated groundwater flow directions near the water table are not predetermined by model boundary conditions and areas of recharge, all of which are very uncertain. • Evaluating local-scale variations in hydraulic conductivity on the calculated contaminant boundaries. • Evaluating the effects of non-steady-state flow conditions on calculated contaminant boundaries, including the effects of long-term declines in water levels, climatic change, and disruption of groundwater system by potential earthquake faulting along either of the two major controlling fault zones in the flow system (the Cane Spring and Rock Valley faults). • Considering the use of less-complex modeling approaches. • Evaluating the large change in water levels in the vicinity of the Frenchman Flat playa and developing a conceptual model to explain these water-level changes. • Developing a long-term groundwater level monitoring program for Frenchman Flat with regular monitoring of water levels at key monitoring wells. Despite these reservations, the peer review team strongly believes that the UGTA subproject should proceed to the next stage.« less

Zebrafish as an Alternative Vertebrate Model for Investigating Developmental Toxicity—The Triadimefon Example

PubMed Central

Zoupa, Maria; Machera, Kyriaki

2017-01-01

Triadimefon is a widely used triazole fungicide known to cause severe developmental defects in several model organisms and in humans. The present study evaluated in detail the developmental effects seen in zebrafish embryos exposed to triadimefon, confirmed and expanded upon previous phenotypic findings and compared them to those observed in other traditional animal models. In order to do this, we exposed embryos to 2 and 4 µg/mL triadimefon and evaluated growth until 120 h post-fertilization (hpf) through gross morphology examination. Our analysis revealed significant developmental defects at the highest tested concentration including somite deformities, severe craniofacial defects, a cleft phenotype along the three primary neural divisions, a rigorously hypoplastic or even absent mandible and a hypoplastic morphology of the pharyngeal arches. Interestingly, massive pericardial edemas, abnormal shaped hearts, brachycardia and inhibited or absent blood circulation were also observed. Our results revealed that the presented zebrafish phenotypes are comparable to those seen in other organism models and those derived from human observations as a result of triadimefon exposure. We therefore demonstrated that zebrafish provide an excellent system for study of compounds with toxic significance and can be used as an alternative model for developmental toxicity studies to predict effects in mammals. PMID:28417904

Alternative Student Growth Measures for Teacher Evaluation: Implementation Experiences of Early-Adopting Districts. REL 2015-093

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCullough, Moira; English, Brittany; Angus, Megan Hague; Gill, Brian

2015-01-01

Alternative student growth measures for teacher evaluation: Implementation experiences of early-adopting districts: State requirements to include student achievement growth in teacher evaluations are prompting the development of alternative ways to measure growth in grades and subjects not covered by state assessments. These alternative growth…

An Evaluation of Alternative Functional Models of Narrative Schemata,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

proposi- tions. This model, like models 2L-5L, predicts a levels effect for both recall and recognition due to differential initial encoding of...Table 1. Model 7L. Model 7L differs from 6L in assuming top-down search. This model thus predicts a levels effect in recall based on probabilis- tic...Bower (1980) failed to find a levels effect in recall of narratives. To compare our results to -20- .70- 501 A I iMMED IATE 0 40 1--- 0c. 3 0 1 020 .00

Are early cannulation arteriovenous grafts (ecAVG) a viable alternative to tunnelled central venous catheters (TCVCs)? An observational "virtual study" and budget impact analysis.

PubMed

Aitken, Emma; Iqbal, Kashfa; Thomson, Peter; Kasthuri, Ram; Kingsmore, David

2016-05-07

Early cannulation arteriovenous grafts (ecAVGs) are advocated as an alternative to tunnelled central venous catheters (TCVCs). A real-time observational "virtual study" and budget impact model was performed to evaluate a strategy of ecAVG as a replacement to TCVC as a bridge to definitive access creation. Data on complications and access-related bed days was collected prospectively for all TCVCs inserted over a six-month period (n = 101). The feasibility and acceptability of an alternative strategy (ecAVGs) was also evaluated. A budget impact model comparing the two strategies was performed. Autologous access in the form of native fistula was the goal wherever possible. We found 34.7% (n = 35) of TCVCs developed significant complications (including 17 culture-proven bacteraemia and one death from line sepsis). Patients spent an average of 11.9 days/patient/year in hospital as a result of access-related complications. The wait for TCVC insertion delayed discharge in 35 patients (median: 6 days). The ecAVGs were a practical and acceptable alternative to TCVCs in over 80% of patients. Over a 6-month period, total treatment costs per patient wereGBP5882 in the TCVC strategy and GBP4954 in the ecAVG strategy, delivering potential savings ofGBP927 per patient. The ecAVGs had higher procedure and re-intervention costs (GBP3014 vs. GBP1836); however, these were offset by significant reductions in septicaemia treatment costs (GBP1322 vs. GBP2176) and in-patient waiting time bed costs (GBP619 vs. GBP1870). Adopting ecAVGs as an alternative to TCVCs in patients requiring immediate access for haemodialysis may provide better individual patient care and deliver cost savings to the hospital.

The ALMA CONOPS project: the impact of funding decisions on observatory performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibsen, Jorge; Hibbard, John; Filippi, Giorgio

2014-08-01

In time when every penny counts, many organizations are facing the question of how much scientific impact a budget cut can have or, putting it in more general terms, which is the science impact of alternative (less costly) operational modes. In reply to such question posted by the governing bodies, the ALMA project had to develop a methodology (ALMA Concepts for Operations, CONOPS) that attempts to measure the impact that alternative operational scenarios may have on the overall scientific production of the Observatory. Although the analysis and the results are ALMA specific, the developed approach is rather general and provides a methodology for a cost-performance analysis of alternatives before any radical alterations to the operations model are adopted. This paper describes the key aspects of the methodology: a) the definition of the Figures of Merit (FoMs) for the assessment of quantitative science performance impacts as well as qualitative impacts, and presents a methodology using these FoMs to evaluate the cost and impact of the different operational scenarios; b) the definition of a REFERENCE operational baseline; c) the identification of Alternative Scenarios each replacing one or more concepts in the REFERENCE by a different concept that has a lower cost and some level of scientific and/or operational impact; d) the use of a Cost-Performance plane to graphically combine the effects that the alternative scenarios can have in terms of cost reduction and affected performance. Although is a firstorder assessment, we believe this approach is useful for comparing different operational models and to understand the cost performance impact of these choices. This can be used to take decision to meet budget cuts as well as in evaluating possible new emergent opportunities.

Evaluation of a Silicone Membrane as an Alternative to Human Skin for Determining Skin Permeation Parameters of Chemical Compounds.

PubMed

Uchida, Takashi; Yakumaru, Masafumi; Nishioka, Keisuke; Higashi, Yoshihiro; Sano, Tomohiko; Todo, Hiroaki; Sugibayashi, Kenji

2016-01-01

We evaluated the effectiveness of a silicone membrane as an alternative to human skin using the skin permeation parameters of chemical compounds. An in vitro permeation study using 15 model compounds was conducted, and permeation parameters comprising permeability coefficient (P), diffusion parameter (DL(-2)), and partition parameter (KL) were calculated from each permeation profile. Significant correlations were obtained in log P, log DL(-2), and log KL values between the silicone membrane and human skin. DL(-2) values of model compounds, except flurbiprofen, in the silicone membrane were independent of the lipophilicity of the model compounds and were 100-fold higher than those in human skin. For antipyrine and caffeine, which are hydrophilic, KL values in the silicone membrane were 100-fold lower than those in human skin, and P values, calculated as the product of a DL(-2) and KL, were similar. For lipophilic compounds, such as n-butyl paraben and flurbiprofen, KL values for silicone were similar to or 10-fold higher than those in human skin, and P values for silicone were 100-fold higher than those in human skin. Furthermore, for amphiphilic compounds with log Ko/w values from 0.5 to 3.5, KL values in the silicone membrane were 10-fold lower than those in human skin, and P values for silicone were 10-fold higher than those in human skin. The silicone membrane was useful as a human skin alternative in an in vitro skin permeation study. However, depending on the lipophilicity of the model compounds, some parameters may be over- or underestimated.

In Silico Investigations of the Anti-Catabolic Effects of Pamidronate and Denosumab on Multiple Myeloma-Induced Bone Disease

PubMed Central

Wang, Yan; Lin, Bo

2012-01-01

It is unclear whether the new anti-catabolic agent denosumab represents a viable alternative to the widely used anti-catabolic agent pamidronate in the treatment of Multiple Myeloma (MM)-induced bone disease. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the lack of sufficient clinical investigations, which are costly and time consuming. However, in silico investigations require less time and expense, suggesting that they may be a useful complement to traditional clinical investigations. In this paper, we aim to (i) develop integrated computational models that are suitable for investigating the effects of pamidronate and denosumab on MM-induced bone disease and (ii) evaluate the responses to pamidronate and denosumab treatments using these integrated models. To achieve these goals, pharmacokinetic models of pamidronate and denosumab are first developed and then calibrated and validated using different clinical datasets. Next, the integrated computational models are developed by incorporating the simulated transient concentrations of pamidronate and denosumab and simulations of their actions on the MM-bone compartment into the previously proposed MM-bone model. These integrated models are further calibrated and validated by different clinical datasets so that they are suitable to be applied to investigate the responses to the pamidronate and denosumab treatments. Finally, these responses are evaluated by quantifying the bone volume, bone turnover, and MM-cell density. This evaluation identifies four denosumab regimes that potentially produce an overall improved bone-related response compared with the recommended pamidronate regime. This in silico investigation supports the idea that denosumab represents an appropriate alternative to pamidronate in the treatment of MM-induced bone disease. PMID:23028650

ReRouting biomedical innovation: observations from a mapping of the alternative research and development (R&D) landscape.

PubMed

Greenberg, Alexandra; Kiddell-Monroe, Rachel

2016-09-14

In recent years, the world has witnessed the tragic outcomes of multiple global health crises. From Ebola to high prices to antibiotic resistance, these events highlight the fundamental constraints of the current biomedical research and development (R&D) system in responding to patient needs globally.To mitigate this lack of responsiveness, over 100 self-identified "alternative" R&D initiatives, have emerged in the past 15 years. To begin to make sense of this panoply of initiatives working to overcome the constraints of the current system, UAEM began an extensive, though not comprehensive, mapping of the alternative biomedical R&D landscape. We developed a two phase approach: (1) an investigation, via the RE:Route Mapping, of both existing and proposed initiatives that claim to offer an alternative approach to R&D, and (2) evaluation of those initiatives to determine which are in fact achieving increased access to and innovation in medicines. Through phase 1, the RE:Route Mapping, we examined 81 initiatives that claim to redress the inequity perpetuated by the current system via one of five commonly recognized mechanisms necessary for truly alternative R&D.Preliminary analysis of phase 1 provides the following conclusions: 1. No initiative presents a completely alternative model of biomedical R&D. 2. The majority of initiatives focus on developing incentives for drug discovery. 3. The majority of initiatives focus on rare diseases or diseases of the poor and marginalized. 4. There is an increasing emphasis on the use of push, pull, pool, collaboration and open mechanisms alongside the concept of delinkage in alternative R&D. 5. There is a trend towards public funding and launching of initiatives by the Global South. Given the RE:Route Mapping's inevitable limitations and the assumptions made in its methodology, it is not intended to be the final word on a constantly evolving and complex field; however, its findings are significant. The Mapping's value lies in its timely and unique insight into the importance of ongoing efforts to develop a new global framework for biomedical R&D. As we progress to phase 2, an evaluation tool for initiatives focused on identifying which approaches have truly achieved increased innovation and access for patients, we aim to demonstrate that there are a handful of initiatives which represent some, but not all, of the building blocks for a new approach to R&D.Through this mapping and our forthcoming evaluation, UAEM aims to initiate an evidence-based conversation around a truly alternative biomedical R&D model that serves people rather than profits.

Market Competitiveness Evaluation of Mechanical Equipment with a Pairwise Comparisons Hierarchical Model.

PubMed

Hou, Fujun

2016-01-01

This paper provides a description of how market competitiveness evaluations concerning mechanical equipment can be made in the context of multi-criteria decision environments. It is assumed that, when we are evaluating the market competitiveness, there are limited number of candidates with some required qualifications, and the alternatives will be pairwise compared on a ratio scale. The qualifications are depicted as criteria in hierarchical structure. A hierarchical decision model called PCbHDM was used in this study based on an analysis of its desirable traits. Illustration and comparison shows that the PCbHDM provides a convenient and effective tool for evaluating the market competitiveness of mechanical equipment. The researchers and practitioners might use findings of this paper in application of PCbHDM.

Evaluating scaling models in biology using hierarchical Bayesian approaches

PubMed Central

Price, Charles A; Ogle, Kiona; White, Ethan P; Weitz, Joshua S

2009-01-01

Theoretical models for allometric relationships between organismal form and function are typically tested by comparing a single predicted relationship with empirical data. Several prominent models, however, predict more than one allometric relationship, and comparisons among alternative models have not taken this into account. Here we evaluate several different scaling models of plant morphology within a hierarchical Bayesian framework that simultaneously fits multiple scaling relationships to three large allometric datasets. The scaling models include: inflexible universal models derived from biophysical assumptions (e.g. elastic similarity or fractal networks), a flexible variation of a fractal network model, and a highly flexible model constrained only by basic algebraic relationships. We demonstrate that variation in intraspecific allometric scaling exponents is inconsistent with the universal models, and that more flexible approaches that allow for biological variability at the species level outperform universal models, even when accounting for relative increases in model complexity. PMID:19453621

An Enhanced Adaptive Management Approach for Remediation of Legacy Mercury in the South River

PubMed Central

Foran, Christy M.; Baker, Kelsie M.; Grosso, Nancy R.; Linkov, Igor

2015-01-01

Uncertainties about future conditions and the effects of chosen actions, as well as increasing resource scarcity, have been driving forces in the utilization of adaptive management strategies. However, many applications of adaptive management have been criticized for a number of shortcomings, including a limited ability to learn from actions and a lack of consideration of stakeholder objectives. To address these criticisms, we supplement existing adaptive management approaches with a decision-analytical approach that first informs the initial selection of management alternatives and then allows for periodic re-evaluation or phased implementation of management alternatives based on monitoring information and incorporation of stakeholder values. We describe the application of this enhanced adaptive management (EAM) framework to compare remedial alternatives for mercury in the South River, based on an understanding of the loading and behavior of mercury in the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The outcomes show that the ranking of remedial alternatives is influenced by uncertainty in the mercury loading model, by the relative importance placed on different criteria, and by cost estimates. The process itself demonstrates that a decision model can link project performance criteria, decision-maker preferences, environmental models, and short- and long-term monitoring information with management choices to help shape a remediation approach that provides useful information for adaptive, incremental implementation. PMID:25665032

School Principals' Decision-Making Behaviour in the Management of Innovation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGeown, Vincent

1979-01-01

A rating scale operationalized a model for the adoption and implementation of educational innovation. Phases were designated: creating a climate for change; analyzing antecedent conditions; generating alternatives; initiating change adoption; implementing change; and evaluating change outcomes. Principals' decision-making behavior was the best…

TRIPLE-VALUE SIMULATION MODELING CASES TACKLE NUTRIENT AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT FROM A SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE

EPA Science Inventory

Decision makers often need assistance in understanding dynamic interactions and linkages among economic, environmental and social systems in coastal watersheds. They also need scientific input to better evaluate potential costs and benefits of alternative policy interventions. EP...

Review and evaluation of models that produce trip tables from ground counts : interim report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

This research effort was motivated by the desires of planning agencies to seek alternative methods of deriving current or base year Origin-Destination (O-D) trip tables without adopting conventional O-D surveys that are expensive, time consuming and ...

Evaluation of the relative risk to birds of alternative pesticides using EPA’s TIM/MCnest Model

EPA Science Inventory

Agricultural producers today have many choices of active ingredients for crop protection. These products come with different active ingredients, different modes of action, and that initiate different adverse outcome pathways. Use patterns also differ considerably among products...

Identifying Structural Alerts Based on Zebrafish Developmental Morphological Toxicity (TDS)

EPA Science Inventory

Zebrafish constitute a powerful alternative animal model for chemical hazard evaluation. To provide an in vivo complement to high-throughput screening data from the ToxCast program, zebrafish developmental toxicity screens were conducted on the ToxCast Phase I (Padilla et al., 20...

Mode of Action (MOA) Assignment Classifications for Ecotoxicology: An Evaluation of approaches

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MOA) is recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity and as an alternative to chemical class-based predictive toxicity modeling. However, MOA classification has never been standardized in ecotoxicology, and a comprehensive comparison of classific...

Evaluating imputation algorithms for low-depth genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Well-powered genomic studies require genome-wide marker coverage across many individuals. For non-model species with few genomic resources, high-throughput sequencing (HTS) methods, such as Genotyping-By-Sequencing (GBS), offer an inexpensive alternative to array-based genotyping. Although affordabl...

1999 update of the Arizona highway cost allocation study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-08-01

The purpose of this report was to update the Arizona highway cost allocation study and to evaluate the alternative of using the new FHWA cost allocation model as a replacement The update revealed that the repeal of Arizona's weight-distance tas has l...

Lower- Versus Higher-Income Populations In The Alternative Quality Contract: Improved Quality And Similar Spending

PubMed Central

Song, Zirui; Rose, Sherri; Chernew, Michael E.; Safran, Dana Gelb

2018-01-01

As population-based payment models become increasingly common, it is crucial to understand how such payment models affect health disparities. We evaluated health care quality and spending among enrollees in areas with lower versus higher socioeconomic status in Massachusetts before and after providers entered into the Alternative Quality Contract, a two-sided population-based payment model with substantial incentives tied to quality. We compared changes in process measures, outcome measures, and spending between enrollees in areas with lower and higher socioeconomic status from 2006 to 2012 (outcome measures were measured after the intervention only). Quality improved for all enrollees in the Alternative Quality Contract after their provider organizations entered the contract. Process measures improved 1.2 percentage points per year more among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status than among those in areas with higher socioeconomic status. Outcome measure improvement was no different between the subgroups; neither were changes in spending. Larger or comparable improvements in quality among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status suggest a potential narrowing of disparities. Strong pay-for-performance incentives within a population-based payment model could encourage providers to focus on improving quality for more disadvantaged populations. PMID:28069849

Numerical simulations of electric potential field for alternating current potential drop associated with surface cracks in low-alloy steel nuclear material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Chun-Ping; Huang, Jiunn-Yuan

2018-04-01

Low-alloy steels used as structural materials in nuclear power plants are subjected to cyclic stresses during power plant operations. As a result, cracks may develop and propagate through the material. The alternating current potential drop technique is used to measure the lengths of cracks in metallic components. The depth of the penetration of the alternating current is assumed to be small compared to the crack length. This assumption allows the adoption of the unfolding technique to simplify the problem to a surface Laplacian field. The numerical modelling of the electric potential and current density distribution prediction model for a compact tension specimen and the unfolded crack model are presented in this paper. The goal of this work is to conduct numerical simulations to reduce deviations occurring in the crack length measurements. Numerical simulations were conducted on AISI 4340 low-alloy steel with different crack lengths to evaluate the electric potential distribution. From the simulated results, an optimised position for voltage measurements in the crack region was proposed.

The DSM-5 alternative model of personality disorders from the perspective of adult attachment: a study in community-dwelling adults.

PubMed

Fossati, Andrea; Krueger, Robert F; Markon, Kristian E; Borroni, Serena; Maffei, Cesare; Somma, Antonella

2015-04-01

To assess how the maladaptive personality domains and facets that were included in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) Alternative Model of Personality Disorders relate to adult attachment styles, 480 Italian nonclinical adults were administered the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5) and the Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ). To evaluate the uniqueness of the associations between the PID-5 scales and the ASQ scales, the participants were also administered the Big Five Inventory (BFI). Multiple regression analyses showed that the ASQ scales significantly predicted both PID-5 domain scales and BFI scales; however, the relationships were different both qualitatively and quantitatively. With the exception of the PID-5 risk taking scale (adjusted R(2) = 0.02), all other PID-5 trait scales were significantly predicted by the ASQ scales, median adjusted R(2) value = 0.25, all ps < 0.001. Our findings suggest that the maladaptive personality domains and traits listed in the DSM-5 Alternative Model of Personality Disorders show meaningful associations with adult attachment styles.

Modeling and Analysis of Alternative Concept of ITER Vacuum Vessel Primary Heat Transfer System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carbajo, Juan J; Yoder Jr, Graydon L; Dell'Orco, Giovanni

2010-01-01

A RELAP5-3D model of the ITER (Latin for the way ) vacuum vessel (VV) primary heat transfer system has been developed to evaluate a proposed design change that relocates the heat exchangers (HXs) from the exterior of the tokamak building to the interior. This alternative design protects the HXs from external hazards such as wind, tornado, and aircraft crash. The proposed design integrates the VV HXs into a VV pressure suppression system (VVPSS) tank that contains water to condense vapour in case of a leak into the plasma chamber. The proposal is to also use this water as the ultimatemore » sink when removing decay heat from the VV system. The RELAP5-3D model has been run under normal operating and abnormal (decay heat) conditions. Results indicate that this alternative design is feasible, with no effects on the VVPSS tank under normal operation and with tank temperature and pressure increasing under decay heat conditions resulting in a requirement to remove steam generated if the VVPSS tank low pressure must be maintained.« less

Portfolios: An Alternative Method of Student and Program Assessment

PubMed Central

Hannam, Susan E.

1995-01-01

The use of performance-based evaluation and alternative assessment techniques has become essential for curriculum programs seeking Commission of Accreditation of Allied Health Education Programs (CAAHEP) accreditation. In athletic training education, few assessment models exist to assess student performance over the entire course of their educational program. This article describes a model of assessment-a student athletic training portfolio of “best works.” The portfolio can serve as a method to assess student development and to assess program effectiveness. The goals of the program include purposes specific to the five NATA performance domains. In addition, four types of portfolio evidence are described: artifacts, attestations, productions, and reproductions. Quality assignments and projects completed by students as they progress through a six-semester program are identified relative to the type of evidence and the domain(s) they represent. The portfolio assists with student development, provides feedback for curriculum planning, allows for student/faculty collaboration and “coaching” of the student, and assists with job searching. This information will serve as a useful model for those athletic training programs looking for an alternative method of assessing student and program outcomes. PMID:16558359

Effect of Bundled Payments and Health Care Reform as Alternative Payment Models in Total Joint Arthroplasty: A Clinical Review.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Ahmed; White, Peter B; Mistry, Jaydev B; Gwam, Chukwuweike U; Nace, James; Mont, Michael A; Delanois, Ronald E

2017-08-01

In an effort to control rising healthcare costs, healthcare reforms have developed initiatives to evaluate the efficacy of alternative payment models (APMs) for Medicare reimbursements. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services Innovation Center (CMMSIC) introduced the voluntary Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) model experiment as a means to curtail Medicare cost by allotting a fixed payment for an episode of care. The purpose of this review is to (1) summarize the preliminary clinical results of the BPCI and (2) discuss how it has led to other healthcare reforms and alternative payment models. A literature search was performed using PubMed and the CMMSIC to explore different APMs and clinical results after implementation. All studies that were not in English or unrelated to the topic were excluded. Preliminary results of bundled payment models have shown reduced costs in total joint arthroplasty largely by reducing hospital length of stay, decreasing readmission rates, as well as reducing the number of patients sent to in-patient rehabilitation facilities. In order to refine episode of care bundles, CMMSIC has also developed other initiatives such as the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) pathway and Surgical Hip and Femur Fracture (SHFFT). Despite the unknown future of the Affordable Care Act, BPCI, and CJR, preliminary results of alternative models have shown promise to reduce costs and improve quality of care. Moving into the future, surgeon control of the BPCI and CJR bundle should be investigated to further improve patient care and maximize financial compensation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of SRB phenolic TPS material made by an alternate vendor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karu, Z. S.

1982-01-01

Tests conducted to evaluate the adequacy of solid rocket booster (SRB) phenolic thermal protection system (TPS) material supplied by an alternate vendor chosen by United Space Boosters, Inc. (USBI), to replace the current phenolic TPS sections used thus far on the first four Shuttle flights. The phenolic TPS is applied mainly to the attach and kick rings of the solid rocket booster (SRB). Full-scale sectional models of both the attach and kick ring structure were made up with 0.0265 in. thick stainless steel thin skin covers with thermocouples on them to determine the heating rates. Such models were made up for both the forward and rear faces of the kick ring which has a different configuration on each side. The thin skins were replaced with the alternate phenolic TPS sections cut from flight hardware configuration phenolic parts as supplied by the new vendor. Two tests were performed for each configuration of the attach and kick rings and the samples were exposed to the flow for a duration that gave a heat load equivalent to that obtained in the series of runs made for the current line of phenolic TPS. The samples performed very well with no loss of any phenolic layers. The post-test samples looked better than those used to verify the current phenolic TPS.

META-X Design Flow Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

Forces can be computed at specific angular positions, and geometrical parameters can be evaluated. Much higher resolution models are required, along...composition engines (C#, C++, Python, Java ) Desert operates on the CyPhy model, converting from a design space alternative structure to a set of design...consists of scripts to execute dymola, post-processing of results to create metrics, and general management of the job sequence. An earlier version created

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

Evaluation of methodology for the analysis of 'time-to-event' data in pharmacogenomic genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Syed, Hamzah; Jorgensen, Andrea L; Morris, Andrew P

2016-06-01

To evaluate the power to detect associations between SNPs and time-to-event outcomes across a range of pharmacogenomic study designs while comparing alternative regression approaches. Simulations were conducted to compare Cox proportional hazards modeling accounting for censoring and logistic regression modeling of a dichotomized outcome at the end of the study. The Cox proportional hazards model was demonstrated to be more powerful than the logistic regression analysis. The difference in power between the approaches was highly dependent on the rate of censoring. Initial evaluation of single-nucleotide polymorphism association signals using computationally efficient software with dichotomized outcomes provides an effective screening tool for some design scenarios, and thus has important implications for the development of analytical protocols in pharmacogenomic studies.

Optimal Contractor Selection in Construction Industry: The Fuzzy Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna Rao, M. V.; Kumar, V. S. S.; Rathish Kumar, P.

2018-02-01

A purely price-based approach to contractor selection has been identified as the root cause for many serious project delivery problems. Therefore, the capability of the contractor to execute the project should be evaluated using a multiple set of selection criteria including reputation, past performance, performance potential, financial soundness and other project specific criteria. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted with the objective of identifying the important criteria for adoption in the selection process. In this work, a fuzzy set based model was developed for contractor prequalification/evaluation, by using effective criteria obtained from the percept of construction professionals, taking subjective judgments of decision makers also into consideration. A case study consisting of four alternatives (contractors in the present case) solicited from a public works department of Pondicherry in India, is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The final selection of contractor is made based on the integrated score or Overall Evaluation Score of the decision alternative in prequalification as well as bid evaluation stages.

Canada's new drug-impaired driving law: the need to consider other approaches.

PubMed

Solomon, Robert; Chamberlain, Erika

2014-01-01

The objects of this study were: To review the state of drug-impaired driving in Canada, particularly in light of the 2008 amendments to the Criminal Code, which authorized police to demand standardized field sobriety testing and drug recognition evaluations, and to consider whether alternative enforcement models would be more effective in terms of detecting and prosecuting drug-impaired drivers and thereby achieve greater deterrence. This article provides a review of survey data, roadside screening studies, and postmortem reports that indicate the prevalence of driving after drug use in Canada. It evaluates the Criminal Code's 2008 amendments and their impact on charges and convictions for drug-impaired driving. It then reviews some alternative enforcement models for drug-impaired driving that have been adopted in other jurisdictions, particularly toxicological testing, and evaluates them against Canada's social, political, and constitutional framework. Survey data, roadside screening studies, and postmortem reports indicate that driving after drug use is commonplace and is now more prevalent among young people than driving after drinking. Unfortunately, the 2008 Criminal Code amendments have not had their desired effects. The measures have proven to be costly, time-consuming, and cumbersome, and are readily susceptible to challenge in the courts. Accordingly, the charge rates for drug-impaired driving remain extremely low, and the law has had minimal deterrent effects. The review of alternative enforcement models suggests that a system of random roadside saliva screening, somewhat similar to the model used in Victoria, Australia, will be the most effective in terms of detecting and prosecuting drug-impaired drivers and most consistent with Canada's legal and constitutional system. Canada should establish per se limits for the most commonly used drugs, enforceable through a system of screening and evidentiary tests. This will be more efficient and cost-effective and will result in more reliable evidence for criminal trials. Although this system will inevitably be subject to constitutional challenge, existing case law suggests that it should be upheld as a reasonable limit on constitutional rights.

Multivariate models for prediction of human skin sensitization hazard.

PubMed

Strickland, Judy; Zang, Qingda; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M; Allen, David; Choksi, Neepa; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Casey, Warren; Kleinstreuer, Nicole

2017-03-01

One of the Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Method's (ICCVAM) top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary to produce skin sensitization suggests that no single alternative method will replace the currently accepted animal tests. ICCVAM is evaluating an integrated approach to testing and assessment based on the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization that uses machine learning approaches to predict human skin sensitization hazard. We combined data from three in chemico or in vitro assays - the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT) and KeratinoSens™ assay - six physicochemical properties and an in silico read-across prediction of skin sensitization hazard into 12 variable groups. The variable groups were evaluated using two machine learning approaches, logistic regression and support vector machine, to predict human skin sensitization hazard. Models were trained on 72 substances and tested on an external set of 24 substances. The six models (three logistic regression and three support vector machine) with the highest accuracy (92%) used: (1) DPRA, h-CLAT and read-across; (2) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across and KeratinoSens; or (3) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across, KeratinoSens and log P. The models performed better at predicting human skin sensitization hazard than the murine local lymph node assay (accuracy 88%), any of the alternative methods alone (accuracy 63-79%) or test batteries combining data from the individual methods (accuracy 75%). These results suggest that computational methods are promising tools to identify effectively the potential human skin sensitizers without animal testing. Published 2016. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2016. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Device and circuit analysis of a sub 20 nm double gate MOSFET with gate stack using a look-up-table-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, S.; Dasgupta, A.; Das, R.; Kar, M.; Kundu, A.; Sarkar, C. K.

2017-12-01

In this paper, we explore the possibility of mapping devices designed in TCAD environment to its modeled version developed in cadence virtuoso environment using a look-up table (LUT) approach. Circuit simulation of newly designed devices in TCAD environment is a very slow and tedious process involving complex scripting. Hence, the LUT based modeling approach has been proposed as a faster and easier alternative in cadence environment. The LUTs are prepared by extracting data from the device characteristics obtained from device simulation in TCAD. A comparative study is shown between the TCAD simulation and the LUT-based alternative to showcase the accuracy of modeled devices. Finally the look-up table approach is used to evaluate the performance of circuits implemented using 14 nm nMOSFET.

Simulation of the ground-water flow system at Naval Submarine Base Bangor and vicinity, Kitsap County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heeswijk, Marijke van; Smith, Daniel T.

2002-01-01

An evaluation of the interaction between ground-water flow on Naval Submarine Base Bangor and the regional-flow system shows that for selected alternatives of future ground-water pumping on and near the base, the risk is low that significant concentrations of on-base ground-water contamination will reach off-base public-supply wells and hypothetical wells southwest of the base. The risk is low even if worst-case conditions are considered ? no containment and remediation of on-base contamination. The evaluation also shows that future saltwater encroachment of aquifers below sea level may be possible, but this determination has considerable uncertainty associated with it. The potential effects on the ground-water flow system resulting from four hypothetical ground-water pumping alternatives were considered, including no change in 1995 pumping rates, doubling the rates, and 2020 rates estimated from population projections with two different pumping distributions. All but a continuation of 1995 pumping rates demonstrate the possibility of future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The amount of time it would take for encroachment to occur is unknown. For all pumping alternatives, future saltwater encroachment in the Sea-level aquifer also may be possible along Puget Sound east and southeast of the base. Future saltwater encroachment in the Deep aquifer also may be possible throughout large parts of the study area. Projections of saltwater encroachment are least certain outside the boundaries of Naval Submarine Base Bangor. The potential effects of the ground-water pumping alternatives were evaluated by simulating the ground-water flow system with a three-dimensional uniform-density ground-water flow model. The model was calibrated by trial-and-error by minimizing differences between simulated and measured or estimated variables. These included water levels from prior to January 17, 1977 (termed 'predevelopment'), water-level drawdowns since predevelopment until April 15, 1995, ground-water discharge to streams in water year 1995, and residence times of ground water in different parts of the flow system that were estimated in a separate but related study. Large amounts of ground water were pumped from 1977 through 1980 from the Sea-level aquifer on Naval Submarine Base Bangor to enable the construction of an off-shore drydock. Records of the flow-system responses to the applied stresses were used to help calibrate the model. Errors in the calibrated model were significant. The poor agreement between simulated and measured values could be improved by making many local changes to hydraulic parameters but these changes were not supported by other data. Model errors may have resulted in errors in the simulated effects of ground-water pumping alternatives.

Expert decision-making strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosier, Kathleen L.

1991-01-01

A recognition-primed decisions (RPD) model is employed as a framework to investigate crew decision-making processes. The quality of information transfer, a critical component of the team RPD model and an indicator of the team's 'collective consciouness', is measured and analyzed with repect to crew performance. As indicated by the RPD model, timing and patterns of information search transfer were expected to reflect extensive and continual situation assessment, and serial evaluation of alternative states of the world or decision response options.

Business Case Analysis of the Towed Gilder Air Launched System (TGALS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Darryl W.; Nguyen, McLinton B.; Seibold, Robert W.; Wong, Frank C.; Budd, Gerald D.

2017-01-01

The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share.

Alternate methodologies to experimentally investigate shock initiation properties of explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svingala, Forrest R.; Lee, Richard J.; Sutherland, Gerrit T.; Benjamin, Richard; Boyle, Vincent; Sickels, William; Thompson, Ronnie; Samuels, Phillip J.; Wrobel, Erik; Cornell, Rodger

2017-01-01

Reactive flow models are desired for new explosive formulations early in the development stage. Traditionally, these models are parameterized by carefully-controlled 1-D shock experiments, including gas-gun testing with embedded gauges and wedge testing with explosive plane wave lenses (PWL). These experiments are easy to interpret due to their 1-D nature, but are expensive to perform and cannot be performed at all explosive test facilities. This work investigates alternative methods to probe shock-initiation behavior of new explosives using widely-available pentolite gap test donors and simple time-of-arrival type diagnostics. These experiments can be performed at a low cost at most explosives testing facilities. This allows experimental data to parameterize reactive flow models to be collected much earlier in the development of an explosive formulation. However, the fundamentally 2-D nature of these tests may increase the modeling burden in parameterizing these models and reduce general applicability. Several variations of the so-called modified gap test were investigated and evaluated for suitability as an alternative to established 1-D gas gun and PWL techniques. At least partial agreement with 1-D test methods was observed for the explosives tested, and future work is planned to scope the applicability and limitations of these experimental techniques.

Simulation-Based Cutaneous Surgical-Skill Training on a Chicken-Skin Bench Model in a Medical Undergraduate Program

PubMed Central

Denadai, Rafael; Saad-Hossne, Rogério; Martinhão Souto, Luís Ricardo

2013-01-01

Background: Because of ethical and medico-legal aspects involved in the training of cutaneous surgical skills on living patients, human cadavers and living animals, it is necessary the search for alternative and effective forms of training simulation. Aims: To propose and describe an alternative methodology for teaching and learning the principles of cutaneous surgery in a medical undergraduate program by using a chicken-skin bench model. Materials and Methods: One instructor for every four students, teaching materials on cutaneous surgical skills, chicken trunks, wings, or thighs, a rigid platform support, needled threads, needle holders, surgical blades with scalpel handles, rat-tooth tweezers, scissors, and marking pens were necessary for training simulation. Results: A proposal for simulation-based training on incision, suture, biopsy, and on reconstruction techniques using a chicken-skin bench model distributed in several sessions and with increasing levels of difficultywas structured. Both feedback and objective evaluations always directed to individual students were also outlined. Conclusion: The teaching of a methodology for the principles of cutaneous surgery using a chicken-skin bench model versatile, portable, easy to assemble, and inexpensive is an alternative and complementary option to the armamentarium of methods based on other bench models described. PMID:23723471

Examining the DSM-5 alternative personality disorder model operationalization of antisocial personality disorder and psychopathy in a male correctional sample.

PubMed

Wygant, Dustin B; Sellbom, Martin; Sleep, Chelsea E; Wall, Tina D; Applegate, Kathryn C; Krueger, Robert F; Patrick, Christopher J

2016-07-01

For decades, it has been known that the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) diagnosis of Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) is a nonadequate operationalization of psychopathy (Crego & Widiger, 2015). The DSM-5 alternative model of personality disorders provides an opportunity to rectify some of these long held concerns. The current study compared the Section III alternative model's trait-based conception of ASPD with the categorical model from the main diagnostic codes section of DSM-5 in terms of associations with differing models of psychopathy. We also evaluated the validity of the trait-based conception more broadly in relation to measures of antisocial tendencies as well as psychopathy. Participants were 200 male inmates who were administered a battery of self-report and interview-based researcher rating measures of relevant constructs. Analyses showed that Section III ASPD outperformed Section II ASPD in predicting scores on Hare's (2003) Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; r = .88 vs. .59). Additionally, aggregate scores for Section III ASPD performed well in capturing variance in differing ASPD and psychopathy measures. Finally, we found that the Section III ASPD impairment criteria added incrementally to the Section III ASPD traits in predicting PCL-R psychopathy and SCID-II ASPD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling and management of water in the Klamath River Basin: overcoming politics and conflicts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, Marshall; Scott, John F.; Abt, Steven R.; Young-Pezeshk, Jayne; Watson, Chester C.

1998-01-01

The network flow model MODSIM, which was designed as a water quantity mass balance model for evaluating and selecting water management alternatives, has been applied to the Klamath River basin. A background of conflicting issues in the basin is presented. The complexity of water quantity model development, while satisfying the many stakeholders and involved special interest groups is discussed, as well as the efforts taken to have the technical model accepted and used, and overcome stakeholder criticism, skepticism, and mistrust of the government.

Systems Operations Studies for Automated Guideway Transit Systems : Quantitative Analysis of Alternative AGT Operational Control Strategies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-10-01

The objectives of the Systems Operation Studies (SOS) for automated guideway transit (AGT) systems are to develop models for the analysis of system operations, to evaluate performance and cost, and to establish guidelines for the design and operation...

Design study of Software-Implemented Fault-Tolerance (SIFT) computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wensley, J. H.; Goldberg, J.; Green, M. W.; Kutz, W. H.; Levitt, K. N.; Mills, M. E.; Shostak, R. E.; Whiting-Okeefe, P. M.; Zeidler, H. M.

1982-01-01

Software-implemented fault tolerant (SIFT) computer design for commercial aviation is reported. A SIFT design concept is addressed. Alternate strategies for physical implementation are considered. Hardware and software design correctness is addressed. System modeling and effectiveness evaluation are considered from a fault-tolerant point of view.

Decision analysis applied to the purchase of frozen premixed intravenous admixtures.

PubMed

Witte, K W; Eck, T A; Vogel, D P

1985-04-01

A structured decision-analysis model was used to evaluate frozen premixed cefazolin admixtures. Decision analysis is a process of stating the desired outcome, establishing and weighting evaluation criteria, identifying options for reaching the outcome, evaluating and numerically ranking each option for each criterion, multiplying the ranking by the weight for each criterion, and calculating total points for each option. It was used to compare objectively frozen premixed cefazolin admixtures with batch reconstitution from vials and reconstitution of lyophilized, ready-to-mix containers. In this institution the model numerically demonstrated a distinct preference for the premixed frozen admixture over these other alternatives. A comparison of these results with the total cost impact of each option resulted in a decision to purchase the frozen premixed solution. The advantages of the frozen premixed solution that contributed most to this decision were decreased waste and personnel time. The latter was especially important since it allowed for the reallocation of personnel resources to other potentially cost-reducing clinical functions. Decision analysis proved to be an effective tool for formalizing the process of selecting among various alternatives to reach a desired outcome in this hospital pharmacy.

Department of the Navy Supporting Data for Fiscal Year 1983 Budget Estimates Descriptive Summaries Submitted to Congress February 1982. Research, Development, Test & Evaluation, Navy. Book 1 of 3. Technology Base, Advanced Technology Development, Strategic Programs.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

optimization methods have been developed for problems in production and distribution modeling including design and evaluation of storage alternatives under...and winds using high frequency , X-band doppler, pulse -limited, and Delta-K radars. Development of millimeter-wave radiometric imaging systems and...generic system design concept for a system capable of defending the Fleet from the high angle threat 1.4 The first model of the drive system for a

Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

PubMed

Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Alexander, Laura W; Park, Andrew W; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

2016-08-01

Controlling Ebola outbreaks and planning an effective response to future emerging diseases are enhanced by understanding the role of geography in transmission. Here we show how epidemic expansion may be predicted by evaluating the relative probability of alternative epidemic paths. We compared multiple candidate models to characterize the spatial network over which the 2013-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus spread and estimate the effects of geographical covariates on transmission during peak spread. The best model was a generalized gravity model where the probability of transmission between locations depended on distance, population density and international border closures between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and neighbouring countries. This model out-performed alternative models based on diffusive spread, the force of infection, mobility estimated from cell phone records and other hypothesized patterns of spread. These findings highlight the importance of integrated geography to epidemic expansion and may contribute to identifying both the most vulnerable unaffected areas and locations of maximum intervention value.

Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

PubMed Central

Pulliam, J. Tomlin; Alexander, Laura W.; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M.

2016-01-01

Controlling Ebola outbreaks and planning an effective response to future emerging diseases are enhanced by understanding the role of geography in transmission. Here we show how epidemic expansion may be predicted by evaluating the relative probability of alternative epidemic paths. We compared multiple candidate models to characterize the spatial network over which the 2013–2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus spread and estimate the effects of geographical covariates on transmission during peak spread. The best model was a generalized gravity model where the probability of transmission between locations depended on distance, population density and international border closures between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and neighbouring countries. This model out-performed alternative models based on diffusive spread, the force of infection, mobility estimated from cell phone records and other hypothesized patterns of spread. These findings highlight the importance of integrated geography to epidemic expansion and may contribute to identifying both the most vulnerable unaffected areas and locations of maximum intervention value. PMID:27853607

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

PubMed

Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

1999-01-01

Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.

Scheduling Algorithm for Mission Planning and Logistics Evaluation (SAMPLE). Volume 3: The GREEDY algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dupnick, E.; Wiggins, D.

1980-01-01

The functional specifications, functional design and flow, and the program logic of the GREEDY computer program are described. The GREEDY program is a submodule of the Scheduling Algorithm for Mission Planning and Logistics Evaluation (SAMPLE) program and has been designed as a continuation of the shuttle Mission Payloads (MPLS) program. The MPLS uses input payload data to form a set of feasible payload combinations; from these, GREEDY selects a subset of combinations (a traffic model) so all payloads can be included without redundancy. The program also provides the user a tutorial option so that he can choose an alternate traffic model in case a particular traffic model is unacceptable.

The Risk Assessment Study for Electric Power Marketing Competitiveness Based on Cloud Model and TOPSIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai

2017-09-01

With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.

Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

PubMed

Pressman, Alice R; Lo, Joan C; Chandra, Malini; Ettinger, Bruce

2011-01-01

Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for analysis of cracks in three-dimensional solids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, I. S.; Newman, J. C., Jr.

1984-01-01

Analytical and numerical methods evaluating the stress-intensity factors for three-dimensional cracks in solids are presented, with reference to fatigue failure in aerospace structures. The exact solutions for embedded elliptical and circular cracks in infinite solids, and the approximate methods, including the finite-element, the boundary-integral equation, the line-spring models, and the mixed methods are discussed. Among the mixed methods, the superposition of analytical and finite element methods, the stress-difference, the discretization-error, the alternating, and the finite element-alternating methods are reviewed. Comparison of the stress-intensity factor solutions for some three-dimensional crack configurations showed good agreement. Thus, the choice of a particular method in evaluating the stress-intensity factor is limited only to the availability of resources and computer programs.

Modeling of reservoir compaction and surface subsidence at South Belridge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, K.S.; Chan, C.K.; Prats, M.

1995-08-01

Finite-element models of depletion-induced reservoir compaction and surface subsidence have been calibrated with observed subsidence, locations of surface fissures, and regions of subsurface casing damage at South Belridge and used predictively for the evaluation of alternative reservoir-development plans. Pressure maintenance through diatomite waterflooding appears to be a beneficial means of minimizing additional subsidence and fissuring as well as reducing axial-compressive-type casing damage.

From Push to Pull: Barriers to MALSP Modernization

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-19

for the Japanese business model Kaizen . According to Hudgik (n.d.), “ Kaizen was created in Japan following World War II. The word Kaizen means... Kaizen business model seeks to maximize efficiencies of the manufacturer or company and challenge personnel to identify ways to increase productivity and...What is kaizen ? Retrieved from http://www.graphicproducts.com/tutorials/ kaizen /index.php Jabin, J. M. (2009, June 1). Evaluating alternative

Linear programming: an alternative approach for developing formulations for emergency food products.

PubMed

Sheibani, Ershad; Dabbagh Moghaddam, Arasb; Sharifan, Anousheh; Afshari, Zahra

2018-03-01

To minimize the mortality rates of individuals affected by disasters, providing high-quality food relief during the initial stages of an emergency is crucial. The goal of this study was to develop a formulation for a high-energy, nutrient-dense prototype using linear programming (LP) model as a novel method for developing formulations for food products. The model consisted of the objective function and the decision variables, which were the formulation costs and weights of the selected commodities, respectively. The LP constraints were the Institute of Medicine and the World Health Organization specifications of the content of nutrients in the product. Other constraints related to the product's sensory properties were also introduced to the model. Nonlinear constraints for energy ratios of nutrients were linearized to allow their use in the LP. Three focus group studies were conducted to evaluate the palatability and other aspects of the optimized formulation. New constraints were introduced to the LP model based on the focus group evaluations to improve the formulation. LP is an appropriate tool for designing formulations of food products to meet a set of nutritional requirements. This method is an excellent alternative to the traditional 'trial and error' method in designing formulations. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Evaluation of Alternative Atomistic Models for the Incipient Growth of ZnO by Atomic Layer Deposition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, Manh-Hung; Tian, Liang; Chaker, Ahmad

ZnO thin films are interesting for applications in several technological fields, including optoelectronics and renewable energies. Nanodevice applications require controlled synthesis of ZnO structures at nanometer scale, which can be achieved via atomic layer deposition (ALD). However, the mechanisms governing the initial stages of ALD had not been addressed until very recently. Investigations into the initial nucleation and growth as well as the atomic structure of the heterointerface are crucial to optimize the ALD process and understand the structure-property relationships for ZnO. We have used a complementary suite of in situ synchrotron x-ray techniques to investigate both the structural andmore » chemical evolution during ZnO growth by ALD on two different substrates, i.e., SiO2 and Al2O3, which led us to formulate an atomistic model of the incipient growth of ZnO. The model relies on the formation of nanoscale islands of different size and aspect ratio and consequent disorder induced in the Zn neighbors' distribution. However, endorsement of our model requires testing and discussion of possible alternative models which could account for the experimental results. In this work, we review, test, and rule out several alternative models; the results confirm our view of the atomistic mechanisms at play, which influence the overall microstructure and resulting properties of the final thin film.« less

Computational Modeling to Evaluate Alternative Hypotheses for the Linkage of Aromatase Inhibition to Vitellogenin Levels in Fathead Minnows

EPA Science Inventory

Aromatase converts testosterone to estradiol (E2). In fish, E2 concentrations control hepatic synthesis of the glycolipoprotein vitellogenin (VTG), an egg yolk precursor protein essential to oocyte development and larval survival. Fathead minnows were exposed to the aromatase in...

Evaluating the storage environment in hypobaric chambers used for disinfesting fresh fruits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Low pressure (LP) treatment has potential as an alternative non-chemical postharvest disinfestation method for fresh fruits. A validated computer simulation model was used to determine the thickness of insulation foam needed to cover the hypobaric chamber walls in order to stabilize the air temperat...

Adding Asymmetrically Dominated Alternatives: Violations of Regularity and the Similarity Hypothesis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

385. Punj, Girish N. and Richard Staelin, (1978), "The Choice Process for Graduate Business Schools," Journal of Marketing Research , 15, (November 1978...Test Market Evaluation of New Packaged Goods: A Model and Measurement Methodology," Journal of Marketing Research , 15, (May) 171-191. Urban, Glen

Adding Asymmetrically Dominated Alternatives: Violations of Regularity & the Similarity Hypothesis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-01

34The Choice Process for Graduate Business Schools," Journal of Marketing Research , 15, (November, 1978) 588-598. Reibstein, David (1978), "The...Market Evaluation of New Packaged Goods: A Model and Measurement Methodology," Journal of Marketing Research , 15, (May), 171-191. Simon, H. A. (1957

Systems definition study for shuttle demonstration flights of large space structures. Volume 3: Thermal analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

the development of large space structure technology is discussed. A detailed thermal analysis of a model space fabricated 1 meter beam is presented. Alternative thermal coatings are evaluated, and deflections, stresses, and stiffness variations resulting from flight orientations and solar conditions are predicted.

Evaluating Alternative Methodologies for Capturing As-Built Building Information Models (BIM) For Existing Facilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

Jeffery P. Holland was the Director. ERDC/CERL CR-10-1 iv Unit Conversion Factors Multiply By To Obtain British thermal units (International Table...360 Panoramic Optic™ is a specially designed lens attachment, with an exclusive optical reflector, which captures an entire 360 degree panorama

TRANSFERABLE DISCHARGE PERMITS FOR CONTROL OF SO2 EMISSIONS FROM ILLINOIS POWER PLANTS (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses the use of a large scale simulation model in evaluating various policy alternatives for reducing SO2 emissions from Illinois electric power plants for a broad range of nuclear power capacity addition scenarios. A dynamic simulation of a transferable discharge ...

Coefficient Alpha: A Reliability Coefficient for the 21st Century?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Yanyun; Green, Samuel B.

2011-01-01

Coefficient alpha is almost universally applied to assess reliability of scales in psychology. We argue that researchers should consider alternatives to coefficient alpha. Our preference is for structural equation modeling (SEM) estimates of reliability because they are informative and allow for an empirical evaluation of the assumptions…

Habituation Is Not Enough: Novelty Preferences, Search, and Memory in Infancy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sophian, Catherine

1980-01-01

Critically evaluates habituation and related models for studying infant memory, focusing on methodological and substantive limitations which restrict the derivation of information from them. The essay considers existing research on the development of object permanence as an alternative source of information about infant memory. (Author/DB)

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatment effectiveness allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land-management objectives....

Spreadsheet Analysis of Harvesting Systems

Treesearch

R.B. Rummer; B.L. Lanford

1987-01-01

Harvesting systems can be modeled and analyzed on microcomputers using commercially available "spreadsheet" software. The effect of system or external variables on the production rate or system cost can be evaluated and alternative systems can be easily examined. The tedious calculations associated with such analyses are performed by the computer. For users...

Capacity Value: Evaluation of WECC Rule of Thumb; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milligan, Michael; Ibanez, Eduardo

2015-06-09

This presentation compares loss of load expectation and wind and solar capacity values to the rules of thumb used in the Western Interconnection planning and provides alternative recommendations to the modeling efforts of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council's Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee.

SUSTAIN – A Framework for Placement of Best Management Practices in Urban Watersheds to Protect Water Quality

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed and stormwater managers need modeling tools to evaluate alternative plans for water quality management and flow abatement techniques in urban and developing areas. A watershed-scale, decision-support framework that is based on cost optimization is needed to support gov...

Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2015-01-01

Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

A blended supervision model in Australian general practice training.

PubMed

Ingham, Gerard; Fry, Jennifer

2016-05-01

The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners' Standards for general practice training allow different models of registrar supervision, provided these models achieve the outcomes of facilitating registrars' learning and ensuring patient safety. In this article, we describe a model of supervision called 'blended supervision', and its initial implementation and evaluation. The blended supervision model integrates offsite supervision with available local supervision resources. It is a pragmatic alternative to traditional supervision. Further evaluation of the cost-effectiveness, safety and effectiveness of this model is required, as is the recruitment and training of remote supervisors. A framework of questions was developed to outline the training practice's supervision methods and explain how blended supervision is achieving supervision and teaching outcomes. The supervision and teaching framework can be used to understand the supervision methods of all practices, not just practices using blended supervision.

On the Suitability of MPI as a PGAS Runtime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daily, Jeffrey A.; Vishnu, Abhinav; Palmer, Bruce J.

2014-12-18

Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) models are emerging as a popular alternative to MPI models for designing scalable applications. At the same time, MPI remains a ubiquitous communication subsystem due to its standardization, high performance, and availability on leading platforms. In this paper, we explore the suitability of using MPI as a scalable PGAS communication subsystem. We focus on the Remote Memory Access (RMA) communication in PGAS models which typically includes {\\em get, put,} and {\\em atomic memory operations}. We perform an in-depth exploration of design alternatives based on MPI. These alternatives include using a semantically-matching interface such as MPI-RMA,more » as well as not-so-intuitive interfaces such as MPI two-sided with a combination of multi-threading and dynamic process management. With an in-depth exploration of these alternatives and their shortcomings, we propose a novel design which is facilitated by the data-centric view in PGAS models. This design leverages a combination of highly tuned MPI two-sided semantics and an automatic, user-transparent split of MPI communicators to provide asynchronous progress. We implement the asynchronous progress ranks approach and other approaches within the Communication Runtime for Exascale which is a communication subsystem for Global Arrays. Our performance evaluation spans pure communication benchmarks, graph community detection and sparse matrix-vector multiplication kernels, and a computational chemistry application. The utility of our proposed PR-based approach is demonstrated by a 2.17x speed-up on 1008 processors over the other MPI-based designs.« less

Operation, Maintenance and Performance Evaluation of the Potomac Estuary Experimental Water Treatment Plant. Executive Summary.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

tion of appropriate isotherm and rate model parameters for TOC and one SOC. - Evaluation of GAC design alternatives at different treatment...permits an estimate of corrosion rates , based on weight loss of pipe inserts maintained in continuous contact with the finished water. With respect to the...coagulation, sedimentation, recarbonation, gravity filtration, GAC adsorption at twice the contact time, ozone and chloramine for final disinfection. An

77 FR 58416 - Comparative Environmental Evaluation of Alternatives for Handling Low-Level Radioactive Waste...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-20

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2012-0218] Comparative Environmental Evaluation of Alternatives... public comment the Draft Comparative Environmental Evaluation of Alternatives for Handling Low-Level.... Availability of Documents ADAMS Accession No. Document title ML12256A965 Draft Comparative Environmental...

rMATS: robust and flexible detection of differential alternative splicing from replicate RNA-Seq data.

PubMed

Shen, Shihao; Park, Juw Won; Lu, Zhi-xiang; Lin, Lan; Henry, Michael D; Wu, Ying Nian; Zhou, Qing; Xing, Yi

2014-12-23

Ultra-deep RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) has become a powerful approach for genome-wide analysis of pre-mRNA alternative splicing. We previously developed multivariate analysis of transcript splicing (MATS), a statistical method for detecting differential alternative splicing between two RNA-Seq samples. Here we describe a new statistical model and computer program, replicate MATS (rMATS), designed for detection of differential alternative splicing from replicate RNA-Seq data. rMATS uses a hierarchical model to simultaneously account for sampling uncertainty in individual replicates and variability among replicates. In addition to the analysis of unpaired replicates, rMATS also includes a model specifically designed for paired replicates between sample groups. The hypothesis-testing framework of rMATS is flexible and can assess the statistical significance over any user-defined magnitude of splicing change. The performance of rMATS is evaluated by the analysis of simulated and real RNA-Seq data. rMATS outperformed two existing methods for replicate RNA-Seq data in all simulation settings, and RT-PCR yielded a high validation rate (94%) in an RNA-Seq dataset of prostate cancer cell lines. Our data also provide guiding principles for designing RNA-Seq studies of alternative splicing. We demonstrate that it is essential to incorporate biological replicates in the study design. Of note, pooling RNAs or merging RNA-Seq data from multiple replicates is not an effective approach to account for variability, and the result is particularly sensitive to outliers. The rMATS source code is freely available at rnaseq-mats.sourceforge.net/. As the popularity of RNA-Seq continues to grow, we expect rMATS will be useful for studies of alternative splicing in diverse RNA-Seq projects.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the hypersensitivity potential of alternative butter flavorings

PubMed Central

Anderson, Stacey E.; Franko, Jennifer; Wells, J.R.; Lukomska, Ewa; Meade, B. Jean

2015-01-01

Concern has been raised over the association of diacetyl with lung disease clinically resembling bronchiolitis obliterans in food manufacturing workers. This has resulted in the need for identification of alternative chemicals to be used in the manufacturing process. Structurally similar chemicals, 2,3-pentanedione, 2,3-hexanedione, 3,4-hexanedione and 2,3-heptanedione, used as constituents of synthetic flavoring agents have been suggested as potential alternatives for diacetyl, however, immunotoxicity data on these chemicals are limited. The present study evaluated the dermal irritation and sensitization potential of diacetyl alternatives using a murine model. None of the chemicals were identified as dermal irritants when tested at concentrations up to 50%. Similar to diacetyl (EC3 = 17.9%), concentration-dependent increases in lymphocyte proliferation were observed following exposure to all four chemicals, with calculated EC3 values of 15.4% (2,3-pentanedione), 18.2% (2,3-hexanedione), 15.5% (3,4-hexanedione) and 14.1% (2,3-heptanedione). No biologically significant elevations in local or total serum IgE were identified after exposure to 25–50% concentrations of these chemicals. These results demonstrate the potential for development of hypersensitivity responses to these proposed alternative butter flavorings and raise concern about the use of structurally similar replacement chemicals. Additionally, a contaminant with strong sensitization potential was found in varying concentrations in diacetyl obtained from different producers. PMID:24007741

Evaluation of the hypersensitivity potential of alternative butter flavorings.

PubMed

Anderson, Stacey E; Franko, Jennifer; Wells, J R; Lukomska, Ewa; Meade, B Jean

2013-12-01

Concern has been raised over the association of diacetyl with lung disease clinically resembling bronchiolitis obliterans in food manufacturing workers. This has resulted in the need for identification of alternative chemicals to be used in the manufacturing process. Structurally similar chemicals, 2,3-pentanedione, 2,3-hexanedione, 3,4-hexanedione and 2,3-heptanedione, used as constituents of synthetic flavoring agents have been suggested as potential alternatives for diacetyl, however, immunotoxicity data on these chemicals are limited. The present study evaluated the dermal irritation and sensitization potential of diacetyl alternatives using a murine model. None of the chemicals were identified as dermal irritants when tested at concentrations up to 50%. Similar to diacetyl (EC3=17.9%), concentration-dependent increases in lymphocyte proliferation were observed following exposure to all four chemicals, with calculated EC3 values of 15.4% (2,3-pentanedione), 18.2% (2,3-hexanedione), 15.5% (3,4-hexanedione) and 14.1% (2,3-heptanedione). No biologically significant elevations in local or total serum IgE were identified after exposure to 25-50% concentrations of these chemicals. These results demonstrate the potential for development of hypersensitivity responses to these proposed alternative butter flavorings and raise concern about the use of structurally similar replacement chemicals. Additionally, a contaminant with strong sensitization potential was found in varying concentrations in diacetyl obtained from different producers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effectivemore » alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets.« less

Surrogate waveform models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott; Galley, Chad; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Tiglio, Manuel

2015-04-01

With the advanced detector era just around the corner, there is a strong need for fast and accurate models of gravitational waveforms from compact binary coalescence. Fast surrogate models can be built out of an accurate but slow waveform model with minimal to no loss in accuracy, but may require a large number of evaluations of the underlying model. This may be prohibitively expensive if the underlying is extremely slow, for example if we wish to build a surrogate for numerical relativity. We examine alternate choices to building surrogate models which allow for a more sparse set of input waveforms. Research supported in part by NSERC.

Regional on-road vehicle running emissions modeling and evaluation for conventional and alternative vehicle technologies.

PubMed

Frey, H Christopher; Zhai, Haibo; Rouphail, Nagui M

2009-11-01

This study presents a methodology for estimating high-resolution, regional on-road vehicle emissions and the associated reductions in air pollutant emissions from vehicles that utilize alternative fuels or propulsion technologies. The fuels considered are gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity. The technologies considered are internal combustion or compression engines, hybrids, fuel cell, and electric. Road link-based emission models are developed using modal fuel use and emission rates applied to facility- and speed-specific driving cycles. For an urban case study, passenger cars were found to be the largest sources of HC, CO, and CO(2) emissions, whereas trucks contributed the largest share of NO(x) emissions. When alternative fuel and propulsion technologies were introduced in the fleet at a modest market penetration level of 27%, their emission reductions were found to be 3-14%. Emissions for all pollutants generally decreased with an increase in the market share of alternative vehicle technologies. Turnover of the light duty fleet to newer Tier 2 vehicles reduced emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) substantially. However, modest improvements in fuel economy may be offset by VMT growth and reductions in overall average speed.

75 FR 57027 - National Toxicology Program (NTP); NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-17

... for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM); Availability of Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) Test Method Evaluation Reports: In Vitro Ocular Safety Testing Methods and Strategies, and Routine Use of Topical Anesthetics, Systemic...

An experimental and theoretical evaluation of increased thermal diffusivity phase change devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, S. P.; Golden, J. O.; Stermole, F. J.

1972-01-01

This study was to experimentally evaluate and mathematically model the performance of phase change thermal control devices containing high thermal conductivity metal matrices. Three aluminum honeycomb filters were evaluated at five different heat flux levels using n-oct-adecane as the test material. The system was mathematically modeled by approximating the partial differential equations with a three-dimensional implicit alternating direction technique. The mathematical model predicts the system quite well. All of the phase change times are predicted. The heating of solid phase is predicted exactly while there is some variation between theoretical and experimental results in the liquid phase. This variation in the liquid phase could be accounted for by the fact that there are some heat losses in the cell and there could be some convection in the experimental system.

Evaluating the impacts of agricultural land management practices on water resources: A probabilistic hydrologic modeling approach.

PubMed

Prada, A F; Chu, M L; Guzman, J A; Moriasi, D N

2017-05-15

Evaluating the effectiveness of agricultural land management practices in minimizing environmental impacts using models is challenged by the presence of inherent uncertainties during the model development stage. One issue faced during the model development stage is the uncertainty involved in model parameterization. Using a single optimized set of parameters (one snapshot) to represent baseline conditions of the system limits the applicability and robustness of the model to properly represent future or alternative scenarios. The objective of this study was to develop a framework that facilitates model parameter selection while evaluating uncertainty to assess the impacts of land management practices at the watershed scale. The model framework was applied to the Lake Creek watershed located in southwestern Oklahoma, USA. A two-step probabilistic approach was implemented to parameterize the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model using global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to estimate the full spectrum of total monthly water yield (WYLD) and total monthly Nitrogen loads (N) in the watershed under different land management practices. Twenty-seven models were found to represent the baseline scenario in which uncertainty of up to 29% and 400% in WYLD and N, respectively, is plausible. Changing the land cover to pasture manifested the highest decrease in N to up to 30% for a full pasture coverage while changing to full winter wheat cover can increase the N up to 11%. The methodology developed in this study was able to quantify the full spectrum of system responses, the uncertainty associated with them, and the most important parameters that drive their variability. Results from this study can be used to develop strategic decisions on the risks and tradeoffs associated with different management alternatives that aim to increase productivity while also minimizing their environmental impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Elkin, Elena B

2006-01-01

Diagnostic and prognostic models are typically evaluated with measures of accuracy that do not address clinical consequences. Decision-analytic techniques allow assessment of clinical outcomes but often require collection of additional information and may be cumbersome to apply to models that yield a continuous result. The authors sought a method for evaluating and comparing prediction models that incorporates clinical consequences,requires only the data set on which the models are tested,and can be applied to models that have either continuous or dichotomous results. The authors describe decision curve analysis, a simple, novel method of evaluating predictive models. They start by assuming that the threshold probability of a disease or event at which a patient would opt for treatment is informative of how the patient weighs the relative harms of a false-positive and a false-negative prediction. This theoretical relationship is then used to derive the net benefit of the model across different threshold probabilities. Plotting net benefit against threshold probability yields the "decision curve." The authors apply the method to models for the prediction of seminal vesicle invasion in prostate cancer patients. Decision curve analysis identified the range of threshold probabilities in which a model was of value, the magnitude of benefit, and which of several models was optimal. Decision curve analysis is a suitable method for evaluating alternative diagnostic and prognostic strategies that has advantages over other commonly used measures and techniques.

Rapid architecture alternative modeling (RAAM): A framework for capability-based analysis of system of systems architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobucci, Joseph V.

The research objective for this manuscript is to develop a Rapid Architecture Alternative Modeling (RAAM) methodology to enable traceable Pre-Milestone A decision making during the conceptual phase of design of a system of systems. Rather than following current trends that place an emphasis on adding more analysis which tends to increase the complexity of the decision making problem, RAAM improves on current methods by reducing both runtime and model creation complexity. RAAM draws upon principles from computer science, system architecting, and domain specific languages to enable the automatic generation and evaluation of architecture alternatives. For example, both mission dependent and mission independent metrics are considered. Mission dependent metrics are determined by the performance of systems accomplishing a task, such as Probability of Success. In contrast, mission independent metrics, such as acquisition cost, are solely determined and influenced by the other systems in the portfolio. RAAM also leverages advances in parallel computing to significantly reduce runtime by defining executable models that are readily amendable to parallelization. This allows the use of cloud computing infrastructures such as Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud and the PASTEC cluster operated by the Georgia Institute of Technology Research Institute (GTRI). Also, the amount of data that can be generated when fully exploring the design space can quickly exceed the typical capacity of computational resources at the analyst's disposal. To counter this, specific algorithms and techniques are employed. Streaming algorithms and recursive architecture alternative evaluation algorithms are used that reduce computer memory requirements. Lastly, a domain specific language is created to provide a reduction in the computational time of executing the system of systems models. A domain specific language is a small, usually declarative language that offers expressive power focused on a particular problem domain by establishing an effective means to communicate the semantics from the RAAM framework. These techniques make it possible to include diverse multi-metric models within the RAAM framework in addition to system and operational level trades. A canonical example was used to explore the uses of the methodology. The canonical example contains all of the features of a full system of systems architecture analysis study but uses fewer tasks and systems. Using RAAM with the canonical example it was possible to consider both system and operational level trades in the same analysis. Once the methodology had been tested with the canonical example, a Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) capability model was developed. Due to the sensitive nature of analyses on that subject, notional data was developed. The notional data has similar trends and properties to realistic Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses data. RAAM was shown to be traceable and provided a mechanism for a unified treatment of a variety of metrics. The SEAD capability model demonstrated lower computer runtimes and reduced model creation complexity as compared to methods currently in use. To determine the usefulness of the implementation of the methodology on current computing hardware, RAAM was tested with system of system architecture studies of different sizes. This was necessary since system of systems may be called upon to accomplish thousands of tasks. It has been clearly demonstrated that RAAM is able to enumerate and evaluate the types of large, complex design spaces usually encountered in capability based design, oftentimes providing the ability to efficiently search the entire decision space. The core algorithms for generation and evaluation of alternatives scale linearly with expected problem sizes. The SEAD capability model outputs prompted the discovery a new issue, the data storage and manipulation requirements for an analysis. Two strategies were developed to counter large data sizes, the use of portfolio views and top 'n' analysis. This proved the usefulness of the RAAM framework and methodology during Pre-Milestone A capability based analysis. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anton, J. M.; Grau, J. B.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.; Cisneros, J. M.

2012-04-01

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such "Climate change" is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China …, and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Implementation of a mezzo-level HOV carpool model for Texas. Final report, September 1986-April 1990

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benson, J.D.; Mullins, J.A.; Stokes, R.W.

1989-11-01

The report presents the results of an evaluation and adaptation of three existing high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane carpool demand estimation models for possible use in Houston and other large Texas cities. These models use trip tables, networks and zone structures that are consistent with the regional travel demand modeling process currently in use in Texas. By implementing the HOV carpool models in a structure that is consistent with the regional travel demand modeling process, it is possible to estimate the carpool demand for an HOV facility and to evaluate the effects of the following changes in HOV lane configuration andmore » operating strategies: (1) Effects of additional and/or alternative access points; (2) Effects of extending and HOV lane; and (3) Effects of changing the definition of eligible HOV carpools. The models have produced promising results in test applications in Houston.« less

Evaluating Alternative High Schools: Program Evaluation in Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinds, Drew Samuel Wayne

2013-01-01

Alternative high schools serve some of the most vulnerable students and their programs present a significant challenge to evaluate. Determining the impact of an alternative high school that serves mostly at-risk students presented a significant research problem. Few studies exist that dig deeper into the characteristics and strategies of…

3 CFR - Demonstration Grants for the Development, Implementation, and Evaluation of Alternatives to the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., Implementation, and Evaluation of Alternatives to the Current Medical Liability System Presidential Documents..., Implementation, and Evaluation of Alternatives to the Current Medical Liability System Memorandum for the... report that fear of lawsuits leads them to practice defensive medicine, which may contribute to higher...

Reliability models: the influence of model specification in generation expansion planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, J.P.

1982-10-01

This paper is a critical evaluation of reliability methods used for generation expansion planning. It is shown that the methods for treating uncertainty are critical for determining the relative reliability value of expansion alternatives. It is also shown that the specification of the reliability model will not favor all expansion options equally. Consequently, the model is biased. In addition, reliability models should be augmented with an economic value of reliability (such as the cost of emergency procedures or energy not served). Generation expansion evaluations which ignore the economic value of excess reliability can be shown to be inconsistent. The conclusionsmore » are that, in general, a reliability model simplifies generation expansion planning evaluations. However, for a thorough analysis, the expansion options should be reviewed for candidates which may be unduly rejected because of the bias of the reliability model. And this implies that for a consistent formulation in an optimization framework, the reliability model should be replaced with a full economic optimization which includes the costs of emergency procedures and interruptions in the objective function.« less

Evaluating Individual Students' Perceptions of Instructional Quality: An Investigation of their Factor Structure, Measurement Invariance, and Relations to Educational Outcomes.

PubMed

Scherer, Ronny; Nilsen, Trude; Jansen, Malte

2016-01-01

Students' perceptions of instructional quality are among the most important criteria for evaluating teaching effectiveness. The present study evaluates different latent variable modeling approaches (confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory structural equation modeling, and bifactor modeling), which are used to describe these individual perceptions with respect to their factor structure, measurement invariance, and the relations to selected educational outcomes (achievement, self-concept, and motivation in mathematics). On the basis of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 large-scale data sets of Australia, Canada, and the USA (N = 26,746 students), we find support for the distinction between three factors of individual students' perceptions and full measurement invariance across countries for all modeling approaches. In this regard, bifactor exploratory structural equation modeling outperformed alternative approaches with respect to model fit. Our findings reveal significant relations to the educational outcomes. This study synthesizes different modeling approaches of individual students' perceptions of instructional quality and provides insights into the nature of these perceptions from an individual differences perspective. Implications for the measurement and modeling of individually perceived instructional quality are discussed.

Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

PubMed

Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

2018-05-14

Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of agile designs in first-in-human (FIH) trials--a simulation study.

PubMed

Perlstein, Itay; Bolognese, James A; Krishna, Rajesh; Wagner, John A

2009-12-01

The aim of the investigation was to evaluate alternatives to standard first-in-human (FIH) designs in order to optimize the information gained from such studies by employing novel agile trial designs. Agile designs combine adaptive and flexible elements to enable optimized use of prior information either before and/or during conduct of the study to seamlessly update the study design. A comparison of the traditional 6 + 2 (active + placebo) subjects per cohort design with alternative, reduced sample size, agile designs was performed by using discrete event simulation. Agile designs were evaluated for specific adverse event models and rates as well as dose-proportional, saturated, and steep-accumulation pharmacokinetic profiles. Alternative, reduced sample size (hereafter referred to as agile) designs are proposed for cases where prior knowledge about pharmacokinetics and/or adverse event relationships are available or appropriately assumed. Additionally, preferred alternatives are proposed for a general case when prior knowledge is limited or unavailable. Within the tested conditions and stated assumptions, some agile designs were found to be as efficient as traditional designs. Thus, simulations demonstrated that the agile design is a robust and feasible approach to FIH clinical trials, with no meaningful loss of relevant information, as it relates to PK and AE assumptions. In some circumstances, applying agile designs may decrease the duration and resources required for Phase I studies, increasing the efficiency of early clinical development. We highlight the value and importance of useful prior information when specifying key assumptions related to safety, tolerability, and PK.

Targeted Health Assessment for Wastes Contained at the Niagara Falls Storage Site to Guide Planning for Remedial Action Alternatives - 13428

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busse, John; Keil, Karen; Staten, Jane

2013-07-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is evaluating potential remedial alternatives at the 191-acre Niagara Falls Storage Site (NFSS) in Lewiston, New York, under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The Manhattan Engineer District (MED) and Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) brought radioactive wastes to the site during the 1940's and 1950's, and the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) consolidated these wastes into a 10-acre interim waste containment structure (IWCS) in the southwest portion of the site during the 1980's. The USACE is evaluating remedial alternatives for radioactive waste contained within the IWCS at the NFSS undermore » the Feasibility Study phase of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) process. A preliminary evaluation of the IWCS has been conducted to assess potential airborne releases associated with uncovered wastes, particularly during waste excavation, as well as direct exposures to uncovered wastes. Key technical issues for this assessment include: (1) limitations in waste characterization data; (2) representative receptors and exposure routes; (3) estimates of contaminant emissions at an early stage of the evaluation process; (4) consideration of candidate meteorological data and air dispersion modeling approaches; and (5) estimates of health effects from potential exposures to both radionuclides and chemicals that account for recent updates of exposure and toxicity factors. Results of this preliminary health risk assessment indicate if the wastes were uncovered and someone stayed at the IWCS for a number of days to weeks, substantial doses and serious health effects could be incurred. Current controls prevent such exposures, and the controls that would be applied to protect onsite workers during remedial action at the IWCS would also effectively protect the public nearby. This evaluation provides framing context for the upcoming development and detailed evaluation of remedial alternatives for the IWCS. (authors)« less

Lower- Versus Higher-Income Populations In The Alternative Quality Contract: Improved Quality And Similar Spending.

PubMed

Song, Zirui; Rose, Sherri; Chernew, Michael E; Safran, Dana Gelb

2017-01-01

As population-based payment models become increasingly common, it is crucial to understand how such payment models affect health disparities. We evaluated health care quality and spending among enrollees in areas with lower versus higher socioeconomic status in Massachusetts before and after providers entered into the Alternative Quality Contract, a two-sided population-based payment model with substantial incentives tied to quality. We compared changes in process measures, outcome measures, and spending between enrollees in areas with lower and higher socioeconomic status from 2006 to 2012 (outcome measures were measured after the intervention only). Quality improved for all enrollees in the Alternative Quality Contract after their provider organizations entered the contract. Process measures improved 1.2 percentage points per year more among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status than among those in areas with higher socioeconomic status. Outcome measure improvement was no different between the subgroups; neither were changes in spending. Larger or comparable improvements in quality among enrollees in areas with lower socioeconomic status suggest a potential narrowing of disparities. Strong pay-for-performance incentives within a population-based payment model could encourage providers to focus on improving quality for more disadvantaged populations. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, T.G.

1996-01-01

The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A. using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soil water flux will result in larger increases in soil- adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distribution of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading.

The Use of Mathematical Models of Chlamydia Transmission to Address Public Health Policy Questions: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Rönn, Minttu M; Wolf, Emory E; Chesson, Harrell; Menzies, Nicolas A; Galer, Kara; Gorwitz, Rachel; Gift, Thomas; Hsu, Katherine; Salomon, Joshua A

2017-05-01

Mathematical models of chlamydia transmission can help inform disease control policy decisions when direct empirical evaluation of alternatives is impractical. We reviewed published chlamydia models to understand the range of approaches used for policy analyses and how the studies have responded to developments in the field. We performed a literature review by searching Medline and Google Scholar (up to October 2015) to identify publications describing dynamic chlamydia transmission models used to address public health policy questions. We extracted information on modeling methodology, interventions, and key findings. We identified 47 publications (including two model comparison studies), which reported collectively on 29 distinct mathematical models. Nine models were individual-based, and 20 were deterministic compartmental models. The earliest studies evaluated the benefits of national-level screening programs and predicted potentially large benefits from increased screening. Subsequent trials and further modeling analyses suggested the impact might have been overestimated. Partner notification has been increasingly evaluated in mathematical modeling, whereas behavioral interventions have received relatively limited attention. Our review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and gives a perspective on how mathematical modeling has responded to increasing empirical evidence and addressed policy questions related to prevention of chlamydia infection and sequelae.

A new cell-based method for assessing the eye irritation potential of chemicals: an alternative to the Draize test.

PubMed

Cho, Sun-A; An, Susun; Lee, Eunyoung; Shin, Kyeho; Cho, Jun-Cheol; Lee, Tae Ryong

2012-07-20

Using a human corneal cell line (HCE-T cells) and 2 evaluation criteria, we developed a new alternative method to assess the eye irritation potential of chemicals. We exposed HCE-T cells to different concentrations of 38 chemicals for 1h and measured relative cell viability (RCV) as an endpoint at each concentration. Using the RCV values, we calculated the RCV50. We also exposed HCE-T cells to 3 fixed concentrations of the 38 chemicals (5%, 0.5%, and 0.05%) for 1h and measured the RCV at each concentration. Using the RCV values at 5%, 0.5%, and 0.05%, we developed a new criterion for eye irritation potential (total eye irritation score, TEIS) and estimated the ocular irritancy. We then assessed the correlation of the results of RCV50 and TEIS with those of the Draize rabbit eye irritation. Both the RCV50 and TEIS results exhibited good positive correlations (sensitivity: 80.77%, specificity: 83.33%, and accuracy: 81.58% for TEIS; sensitivity: 73.08-76.92%, specificity: 75.00%, and accuracy: 73.68-76.32% for RCV50). We conclude that the new in vitro model using HCE-T cells is a good alternative evaluation model for the prediction of the eye irritation potential of chemicals. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

FSAW for REIT selection in multi-criteria decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adawiyah, C. W. Rabiatul; Abdullah, Lazim

2014-07-01

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is profitable investments that gain Malaysian investors' attention. It can be a great way to increase our net worth. Due to the existence of many property trusts, investors face difficulties in determining the best property trusts to invest their wealth. This high risk investment makes investors cautious in choosing the platform for investing their wealth. In real world situation, the data collected are inexact and ambiguous. Investment reminds investors to beware because it carries risk no matter low or high. There are lots of things that investors need to consider before invest in any property or trust. The aim of this paper is to identify the best criteria of REIT and determine the best property trust that helps investors gain profits in their investment. Four experts in areas of investment are randomly selected to assess and provide information regarding to Malaysia's REITs. Decision makers were asked to rate the criteria for every alternatives by using the linguistic variables. The five linguistic variables were used as input data to test fuzzy simple additive weighting (FSAW) model. From the study conducted, transparency indicates the necessary criteria for each property trust. This decision making model used to be possible to test FSAW model in investment sector. The decision makers also asked to evaluate the alternatives based on the linguistic ranking variables to rank the alternatives and the result shows the best alternative in this case is Amanah Harta Tanah PNB. The ranking signifies the impact of the criterion and alternatives to investors especially REITs investors.

Economic evaluation of different screening alternatives for patients with clinically suspected acute deep vein thrombosis.

PubMed

Bogavac-Stanojević, Natasa; Dopsaj, Violeta; Jelić-Ivanović, Zorana; Lakić, Dragana; Vasić, Dragan; Petrova, Guenka

2013-01-01

We examined the cost-effectiveness of the three different D-dimer measurements in the screening of DVT in models with and without calculation of pre-test probability (PTP) score. Moreover, we calculated the minimal cost in DVT detection. In the group of 192 patients with clinically suspected acute DVT, we examined the three different D-dimer measurements (Innovance D-dimer, Hemosil D-dimer HS and Vidas D-dimer Exclusion II) in combination with and without PTP assessment. The diagnostic alternative employing Vidas D-dimer Exclusion II assay without and with PTP calculation gave lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) than the alternative employing Hemosil D-dimer HS assay (0.187 Euros vs. 0.998 Euros per one additional DVT positive patient selected for CUS in model without PTP assessment and 0.450 vs. 0.753 Euros per one DVT positive patient selected for CUS in model with PTP assessment). According to sensitivity analysis, the Hemosil D-dimer HS assay was the most cost effective alternative when one patient was admitted to the vascular ambulance per day. Vidas D-dimer Exclusion II assay was the most cost effective alternative when more than one patient were admitted to the vascular ambulance per day. Cost minimisation analysis indicated that selection of patients according to PTP score followed by D-dimer analysis decreases the cost of DVT diagnosis. ICER analysis enables laboratories to choose optimal laboratory tests according to number of patients admitted to laboratory. Results support the feasibility of using PTP scoring and D-dimer measurement before CUS examination in DVT screening.

Exposing hidden alternative backbone conformations in X-ray crystallography using qFit

DOE PAGES

Keedy, Daniel A.; Fraser, James S.; van den Bedem, Henry; ...

2015-10-27

Proteins must move between different conformations of their native ensemble to perform their functions. Crystal structures obtained from high-resolution X-ray diffraction data reflect this heterogeneity as a spatial and temporal conformational average. Although movement between natively populated alternative conformations can be critical for characterizing molecular mechanisms, it is challenging to identify these conformations within electron density maps. Alternative side chain conformations are generally well separated into distinct rotameric conformations, but alternative backbone conformations can overlap at several atomic positions. Our model building program qFit uses mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP) to evaluate an extremely large number of combinations of sidechainmore » conformers and backbone fragments to locally explain the electron density. Here, we describe two major modeling enhancements to qFit: peptide flips and alternative glycine conformations. We find that peptide flips fall into four stereotypical clusters and are enriched in glycine residues at the n+1 position. The potential for insights uncovered by new peptide flips and glycine conformations is exemplified by HIV protease, where different inhibitors are associated with peptide flips in the “flap” regions adjacent to the inhibitor binding site. Our results paint a picture of peptide flips as conformational switches, often enabled by glycine flexibility, that result in dramatic local rearrangements. Our results furthermore demonstrate the power of large-scale computational analysis to provide new insights into conformational heterogeneity. Furthermore, improved modeling of backbone heterogeneity with high-resolution X-ray data will connect dynamics to the structure-function relationship and help drive new design strategies for inhibitors of biomedically important systems.« less

Development of task network models of human performance in microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diaz, Manuel F.; Adam, Susan

1992-01-01

This paper discusses the utility of task-network modeling for quantifying human performance variability in microgravity. The data are gathered for: (1) improving current methodologies for assessing human performance and workload in the operational space environment; (2) developing tools for assessing alternative system designs; and (3) developing an integrated set of methodologies for the evaluation of performance degradation during extended duration spaceflight. The evaluation entailed an analysis of the Remote Manipulator System payload-grapple task performed on many shuttle missions. Task-network modeling can be used as a tool for assessing and enhancing human performance in man-machine systems, particularly for modeling long-duration manned spaceflight. Task-network modeling can be directed toward improving system efficiency by increasing the understanding of basic capabilities of the human component in the system and the factors that influence these capabilities.

Shallow, non-pumped wells: a low-energy alternative for cleaning polluted groundwater.

PubMed

Hudak, Paul F

2013-07-01

This modeling study evaluated the capability of non-pumped wells with filter media for preventing contaminant plumes from migrating offsite. Linear configurations of non-pumped wells were compared to permeable reactive barriers in simulated shallow homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. While permeable reactive barriers enabled faster contaminant removal and shorter distances of contaminant travel, non-pumped wells also prevented offsite contaminant migration. Overall, results of this study suggest that discontinuous, linear configurations of non-pumped wells may be a viable alternative to much more costly permeable reactive barriers for preventing offsite contaminant travel in some shallow aquifers.

An Alternative Proposal for the Graphical Representation of Anticolor Charge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiener, Gerfried J.; Schmeling, Sascha M.; Hopf, Martin

2017-11-01

We have developed a learning unit based on the Standard Model of particle physics, featuring novel typographic illustrations of elementary particles and particle systems. Since the unit includes antiparticles and systems of antiparticles, a visualization of anticolor charge was required. We propose an alternative to the commonly used complementary-color method, whereby antiparticles and antiparticle systems are identified through the use of stripes instead of a change in color. We presented our proposal to high school students and physics teachers, who evaluated it to be a more helpful way of distinguishing between color charge and anticolor charge.

Resident Work Hour Restrictions and Change Management: A Cautionary Tale.

PubMed

Fang, Z Amy; Hudson, Darren

2015-01-01

Residents are a significant part of coverage in many hospitals. Resident associations are negotiating work hour limits to prevent fatigue-induced medical errors. Our intensive care unit experienced an unexpected resident shortage and used the opportunity to trial a shift schedule for one month. Post-surveys were sent to nurses, attending physicians and residents to evaluate the effects on staff interactions, patient safety and education quality. The trial was clearly a failure on all fronts. Work hour restrictions are a reality in medical education, and administrators need to start considering alternative staffing models and discussing alternative schedules with their medicine faculty.

Kinetic approach for the enzymatic determination of levodopa and carbidopa assisted by multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares.

PubMed

Grünhut, Marcos; Garrido, Mariano; Centurión, Maria E; Fernández Band, Beatriz S

2010-07-12

A combination of kinetic spectroscopic monitoring and multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) was proposed for the enzymatic determination of levodopa (LVD) and carbidopa (CBD) in pharmaceuticals. The enzymatic reaction process was carried out in a reverse stopped-flow injection system and monitored by UV-vis spectroscopy. The spectra (292-600 nm) were recorded throughout the reaction and were analyzed by multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares. A small calibration matrix containing nine mixtures was used in the model construction. Additionally, to evaluate the prediction ability of the model, a set with six validation mixtures was used. The lack of fit obtained was 4.3%, the explained variance 99.8% and the overall prediction error 5.5%. Tablets of commercial samples were analyzed and the results were validated by pharmacopeia method (high performance liquid chromatography). No significant differences were found (alpha=0.05) between the reference values and the ones obtained with the proposed method. It is important to note that a unique chemometric model made it possible to determine both analytes simultaneously. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and 3D Visualization for Evaluation of Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection Alternatives: Phase II Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-21

SCHOOL Monterey, California 93943-5000 COL David A. Smarsh, USAF Dr. Leonard A. Ferrari Acting President...1.3.6 Planet 9 Studios David Colleen, CEO Chris Greuel, 3D Model Engineer Dan Ancona, Documentation and Training Carlos Newcomb, 3D Imagery...informational forum of M&S professionals working in the service of naval installation security. David Colleen, CEO, Planet 9 Studios, gave a

Development of novel in silico model for developmental toxicity assessment by using naïve Bayes classifier method.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Ren, Ji-Xia; Kang, Yan-Li; Bo, Peng; Liang, Jun-Yu; Ding, Lan; Kong, Wei-Bao; Zhang, Ji

2017-08-01

Toxicological testing associated with developmental toxicity endpoints are very expensive, time consuming and labor intensive. Thus, developing alternative approaches for developmental toxicity testing is an important and urgent task in the drug development filed. In this investigation, the naïve Bayes classifier was applied to develop a novel prediction model for developmental toxicity. The established prediction model was evaluated by the internal 5-fold cross validation and external test set. The overall prediction results for the internal 5-fold cross validation of the training set and external test set were 96.6% and 82.8%, respectively. In addition, four simple descriptors and some representative substructures of developmental toxicants were identified. Thus, we hope the established in silico prediction model could be used as alternative method for toxicological assessment. And these obtained molecular information could afford a deeper understanding on the developmental toxicants, and provide guidance for medicinal chemists working in drug discovery and lead optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PERTS: A Prototyping Environment for Real-Time Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Jane W. S.; Lin, Kwei-Jay; Liu, C. L.

1993-01-01

PERTS is a prototyping environment for real-time systems. It is being built incrementally and will contain basic building blocks of operating systems for time-critical applications, tools, and performance models for the analysis, evaluation and measurement of real-time systems and a simulation/emulation environment. It is designed to support the use and evaluation of new design approaches, experimentations with alternative system building blocks, and the analysis and performance profiling of prototype real-time systems.

Heteroscedasticity as a Basis of Direction Dependence in Reversible Linear Regression Models.

PubMed

Wiedermann, Wolfgang; Artner, Richard; von Eye, Alexander

2017-01-01

Heteroscedasticity is a well-known issue in linear regression modeling. When heteroscedasticity is observed, researchers are advised to remedy possible model misspecification of the explanatory part of the model (e.g., considering alternative functional forms and/or omitted variables). The present contribution discusses another source of heteroscedasticity in observational data: Directional model misspecifications in the case of nonnormal variables. Directional misspecification refers to situations where alternative models are equally likely to explain the data-generating process (e.g., x → y versus y → x). It is shown that the homoscedasticity assumption is likely to be violated in models that erroneously treat true nonnormal predictors as response variables. Recently, Direction Dependence Analysis (DDA) has been proposed as a framework to empirically evaluate the direction of effects in linear models. The present study links the phenomenon of heteroscedasticity with DDA and describes visual diagnostics and nine homoscedasticity tests that can be used to make decisions concerning the direction of effects in linear models. Results of a Monte Carlo simulation that demonstrate the adequacy of the approach are presented. An empirical example is provided, and applicability of the methodology in cases of violated assumptions is discussed.

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species-specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges.

PubMed

Massatti, Rob; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-08-01

Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species' phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet-adapted species. However, in the dry-adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species-specific responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

PubMed

Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

2013-10-01

Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice

PubMed Central

Towal, R. Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

2013-01-01

Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift–diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions. PMID:24019496

FOCUS: a fire management planning system -- final report

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten; James B. Davis; George T. Flatman; Jerold W. Keith; Stanley R. Rapp; Theodore G. Storey

1981-01-01

FOCUS (Fire Operational Characteristics Using Simulation) is a computer simulation model for evaluating alternative fire management plans. This final report provides a broad overview of the FOCUS system, describes two major modules-fire suppression and cost, explains the role in the system of gaming large fires, and outlines the support programs and ways of...

Meta-analysis genomewide association of pork quality traits: ultimate pH and shear force

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is common practice to perform genome-wide association analysis (GWA) using a genomic evaluation model of a single population. Joint analysis of several populations is more difficult. An alternative to joint analysis could be the meta-analysis (MA) of several GWA from independent genomic evaluatio...

75 FR 18907 - Notice of Opportunity for Public Comment on the Proposed Model Safety Evaluation for Plant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-13

... Specifications (STS) to define a new time limit for restoring inoperable RCS leakage detection instrumentation to... contents of the facility design bases related to the operability of the RCS leakage detection... leakage detection instrumentation to operable status and establish alternate methods of monitoring RCS...

Computer Games Application within Alternative Classroom Goal Structures: Cognitive, Metacognitive, and Affective Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ke, Fengfeng

2008-01-01

This article reports findings on a study of educational computer games used within various classroom situations. Employing an across-stage, mixed method model, the study examined whether educational computer games, in comparison to traditional paper-and-pencil drills, would be more effective in facilitating comprehensive math learning outcomes,…

Computer Simulation Modeling: A Method for Predicting the Utilities of Alternative Computer-Aided Treat Evaluation Algorithms

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

1988). Current versions of the ADATS have CATE systems insLzlled, but the software is still under development by the radar manufacturer, Contraves ...Italiana, a subcontractor to Martin Marietta (USA). Contraves Italiana will deliver the final version of the software to Martin Marietta in 1991. Until then

Using the Larval Zebrafish Locomotor Asssay in Functional Neurotoxicity Screening: Light Brightness and the Order of Stimulus Presentation Affect the Outcome

EPA Science Inventory

We are evaluating methods to screen/prioritize large numbers of chemicals using 6 day old zebrafish (Danio rerio) as an alternative model for detecting neurotoxic effects. Our behavioral testing paradigm simultaneously tests individual larval zebrafish under sequential light and...

An evaluation of selected in silico models for the assessment of skin sensitization potential – performance and practical utility considerations (QSAR conference)

EPA Science Inventory

Skin sensitization remains an important endpoint for consumers, manufacturers and regulators. Although the development of alternative approaches to assess skin sensitization potential has been extremely active over many years, the implication of regulations such as REACH and the ...

Putting Empirical Knowledge to Work: Linking Research and Programming on Marital Quality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adler-Baeder, Francesca; Higginbotham, Brian; Lamke, Leanne

2004-01-01

When selecting a marriage education curriculum, educators can turn to programs that have been evaluated for effectiveness; however, few curricula have undergone such study. An alternative approach, consistent with best practices, is to ensure a research base for program content. A translation process model is offered as an initial attempt to…

Human Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes: An Alternative Model to Evaluate Environmental Chemical Cardiac Safety and Development of Predictive Adverse Outcome Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Biomonitoring over the last 14 years has shown human exposure to environmental chemicals has increased ~10-fold (1). In addition, mortality and morbidity related cardiovascular disease continues to be the leading national and global public health issue (2, 3). The association bet...

Safeguards Technology Development Program 1st Quarter FY 2018 Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prasad, Manoj K.

LLNL will evaluate the performance of a stilbene-based scintillation detector array for IAEA neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) applications. This effort will combine newly developed modeling methodologies and recently acquired high-efficiency stilbene detector units to quantitatively compare the prototype system performance with the conventional He-3 counters and liquid scintillator alternatives.

Promoting Student-Teacher Interactions: Exploring a Peer Coaching Model for Teachers in a Preschool Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Stacy R.; Finlon, Kristy J.; Kobak, Roger; Izard, Carroll E.

2017-01-01

Peer coaching provides an attractive alternative to traditional professional development for promoting classroom quality in a sustainable, cost-effective manner by creating a collaborative teaching community. This exploratory study describes the development and evaluation of the Colleague Observation And CoacHing (COACH) program, a peer coaching…

Assessment of Alternative Student Aid Delivery Systems: Assessment of the Current Delivery System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Advanced Technology, Inc., Reston, VA.

The effects of the current system for delivering federal financial assistance to students under the Pell Grant, Guaranteed Student Loan (GSL), and campus-based programs are analyzed. Information is included on the use of the assessment model, which combines program evaluation, systems research, and policy analysis methodologies.…

Perception or Fact: Measuring the Effectiveness of the Terrorism Early Warning (TEW) Group

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

alternatives ” (Campbell 2005). The logic model process is a tool that has been used by evaluators for many years to identify performance measures and...pertinent information is obtained, this cell is responsible for the development (pre-event) and use (trans- and post-event) of playbooks and...

Assessing U.S. Public School Quality: The Advantages of Combining Internal "Consumer Ratings" with External NCLB Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Heather E.

2016-01-01

The school quality assessment process under No Child Left Behind (NCLB) is criticized for oversimplifying and overemphasizing standardized test results and unfairly targeting diverse, urban schools. There has been much development in alternative test score evaluations, especially value-added models. These developments have tilted the public…

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs volume

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land management objectives (Stockmann et al...

Using the Larval Zebrafish Locomotor Assay in Functional Neurotoxicity Screening: Light Intensity and the Order of Stimulus Presentation Affect the Outcome

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is evaluating methods to screen and prioritize large numbers of chemicals using 6 day old zebrafish (Danio rerio) as an alternative test model for detecting neurotoxic chemicals. We use a behavioral testing paradigm that simultaneously tes...

On using sample selection methods in estimating the price elasticity of firms' demand for insurance.

PubMed

Marquis, M Susan; Louis, Thomas A

2002-01-01

We evaluate a technique based on sample selection models that has been used by health economists to estimate the price elasticity of firms' demand for insurance. We demonstrate that, this technique produces inflated estimates of the price elasticity. We show that alternative methods lead to valid estimates.

Studies of transformational leadership: evaluating two alternative models of trust and satisfaction.

PubMed

Yang, Yi-Feng

2014-06-01

This study evaluates the influence of leadership style and employee trust in their leaders on job satisfaction. 341 personnel (164 men, 177 women; M age = 33.5 yr., SD = 5.1) from four large insurance companies in Taiwan completed the transformational leadership behavior inventory, the leadership trust scale and a short version of the Minnesota (Job) Satisfaction Questionnaire. A bootstrapping mediation and structural equation modeling revealed that the effect of transformational leadership on job satisfaction was mediated by leadership trust. This study highlights the importance of leadership trust in leadership-satisfaction relationships, and provides managers with practical ways to enhance job satisfaction.

A tiered approach to the use of alternatives to animal testing for the safety assessment of cosmetics: skin irritation.

PubMed

Macfarlane, Martin; Jones, Penny; Goebel, Carsten; Dufour, Eric; Rowland, Joanna; Araki, Daisuke; Costabel-Farkas, Margit; Hewitt, Nicola J; Hibatallah, Jalila; Kirst, Annette; McNamee, Pauline; Schellauf, Florian; Scheel, Julia

2009-07-01

Evaluation of the skin irritancy and corrosivity potential of an ingredient is a necessity in the safety assessment of cosmetic ingredients. To date, there are two formally validated alternatives to the rabbit Draize test for skin corrosivity in place, namely the rat skin transcutaneous electrical resistance (TER) assay and the Human Skin Model Test using EpiSkin, EpiDerm and SkinEthic reconstructed human epidermal equivalents. For skin irritation, EpiSkin, EpiDerm and SkinEthic are validated as stand-alone test replacements for the rabbit Draize test. Data from these tests are rarely considered in isolation and are evaluated in combination with other factors to establish the overall irritating or corrosive potential of an ingredient. In light of the deadlines established in the Cosmetics Directive for cessation of animal testing for cosmetic ingredients, a COLIPA scientific meeting was held in Brussels on 30th January, 2008 to review the use of alternative approaches and to set up a decision tree approach for their integration into tiered testing strategies for hazard and safety assessment of cosmetic ingredients and their use in products. In conclusion, the safety assessments for skin irritation/corrosion of new chemicals for use in cosmetics can be confidently accomplished using exclusively alternative methods.

Advanced analysis technique for the evaluation of linear alternators and linear motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holliday, Jeffrey C.

1995-01-01

A method for the mathematical analysis of linear alternator and linear motor devices and designs is described, and an example of its use is included. The technique seeks to surpass other methods of analysis by including more rigorous treatment of phenomena normally omitted or coarsely approximated such as eddy braking, non-linear material properties, and power losses generated within structures surrounding the device. The technique is broadly applicable to linear alternators and linear motors involving iron yoke structures and moving permanent magnets. The technique involves the application of Amperian current equivalents to the modeling of the moving permanent magnet components within a finite element formulation. The resulting steady state and transient mode field solutions can simultaneously account for the moving and static field sources within and around the device.

Novel application and serial evaluation of tissue-engineered portal vein grafts in a murine model.

PubMed

Maxfield, Mark W; Stacy, Mitchel R; Kurobe, Hirotsugu; Tara, Shuhei; Yi, Tai; Cleary, Muriel A; Zhuang, Zhen W; Rodriguez-Davalos, Manuel I; Emre, Sukru H; Iwakiri, Yasuko; Shinoka, Toshiharu; Breuer, Christopher K

2017-12-01

Surgical management of pediatric extrahepatic portal vein obstruction requires meso-Rex bypass using autologous or synthetic grafts. Tissue-engineered vascular grafts (TEVGs) provide an alternative, but no validated animal models using portal TEVGs exist. Herein, we preclinically assess TEVGs as portal vein bypass grafts. TEVGs were implanted as portal vein interposition conduits in SCID-beige mice, monitored by ultrasound and micro-computed tomography, and histologically assessed postmortem at 12 months. TEVGs remained patent for 12 months. Histologic analysis demonstrated formation of neovessels that resembled native portal veins, with similar content of smooth muscle cells, collagen type III and elastin. TEVGs are feasible portal vein conduits in a murine model. Further preclinical evaluation of TEVGs may facilitate pediatric clinical translation.

Evaluation of alternative snowplowable markers and snowplowing procedures.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

The objectives of this study were to investigate viable alternatives to the currently approved snowplowable raised pavement marker and alternative methods and equipment used to snowplow roadways. The study included evaluating any potential durable an...

A modular method for evaluating the performance of picture archiving and communication systems.

PubMed

Sanders, W H; Kant, L A; Kudrimoti, A

1993-08-01

Modeling can be used to predict the performance of picture archiving and communication system (PACS) configurations under various load conditions at an early design stage. This is important because choices made early in the design of a system can have a significant impact on the performance of the resulting implementation. Because PACS consist of many types of components, it is important to do such evaluations in a modular manner, so that alternative configurations and designs can be easily investigated. Stochastic activity networks (SANs) and reduced base model construction methods can aid in doing this. SANs are a model type particularly suited to the evaluation of systems in which several activities may be in progress concurrently, and each activity may affect the others through the results of its completion. Together with SANs, reduced base model construction methods provide a means to build highly modular models, in which models of particular components can be easily reused. In this article, we investigate the use of SANs and reduced base model construction techniques in evaluating PACS. Construction and solution of the models is done using UltraSAN, a graphic-oriented software tool for model specification, analysis, and simulation. The method is illustrated via the evaluation of a realistically sized PACS for a typical United States hospital of 300 to 400 beds, and the derivation of system response times and component utilizations.

Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard

PubMed Central

Strickland, Judy; Zang, Qingda; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M.; Allen, David; Choksi, Neepa; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Casey, Warren; Kleinstreuer, Nicole

2016-01-01

One of ICCVAM’s top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary to produce skin sensitization suggests that no single alternative method will replace the currently accepted animal tests. ICCVAM is evaluating an integrated approach to testing and assessment based on the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization that uses machine learning approaches to predict human skin sensitization hazard. We combined data from three in chemico or in vitro assays—the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT), and KeratinoSens™ assay—six physicochemical properties, and an in silico read-across prediction of skin sensitization hazard into 12 variable groups. The variable groups were evaluated using two machine learning approaches, logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM), to predict human skin sensitization hazard. Models were trained on 72 substances and tested on an external set of 24 substances. The six models (three LR and three SVM) with the highest accuracy (92%) used: (1) DPRA, h-CLAT, and read-across; (2) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across, and KeratinoSens; or (3) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across, KeratinoSens, and log P. The models performed better at predicting human skin sensitization hazard than the murine local lymph node assay (accuracy = 88%), any of the alternative methods alone (accuracy = 63–79%), or test batteries combining data from the individual methods (accuracy = 75%). These results suggest that computational methods are promising tools to effectively identify potential human skin sensitizers without animal testing. PMID:27480324

A Computationally Efficient Hypothesis Testing Method for Epistasis Analysis using Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction

PubMed Central

Pattin, Kristine A.; White, Bill C.; Barney, Nate; Gui, Jiang; Nelson, Heather H.; Kelsey, Karl R.; Andrew, Angeline S.; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moore, Jason H.

2008-01-01

Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) was developed as a nonparametric and model-free data mining method for detecting, characterizing, and interpreting epistasis in the absence of significant main effects in genetic and epidemiologic studies of complex traits such as disease susceptibility. The goal of MDR is to change the representation of the data using a constructive induction algorithm to make nonadditive interactions easier to detect using any classification method such as naïve Bayes or logistic regression. Traditionally, MDR constructed variables have been evaluated with a naïve Bayes classifier that is combined with 10-fold cross validation to obtain an estimate of predictive accuracy or generalizability of epistasis models. Traditionally, we have used permutation testing to statistically evaluate the significance of models obtained through MDR. The advantage of permutation testing is that it controls for false-positives due to multiple testing. The disadvantage is that permutation testing is computationally expensive. This is in an important issue that arises in the context of detecting epistasis on a genome-wide scale. The goal of the present study was to develop and evaluate several alternatives to large-scale permutation testing for assessing the statistical significance of MDR models. Using data simulated from 70 different epistasis models, we compared the power and type I error rate of MDR using a 1000-fold permutation test with hypothesis testing using an extreme value distribution (EVD). We find that this new hypothesis testing method provides a reasonable alternative to the computationally expensive 1000-fold permutation test and is 50 times faster. We then demonstrate this new method by applying it to a genetic epidemiology study of bladder cancer susceptibility that was previously analyzed using MDR and assessed using a 1000-fold permutation test. PMID:18671250

Inverse modeling of surface-water discharge to achieve restoration salinity performance measures in Florida Bay, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, E.D.; James, D.E.

2008-01-01

The use of numerical modeling to evaluate regional water-management practices involves the simulation of various alternative water-delivery scenarios, which typically are designed intuitively rather than analytically. These scenario simulations are used to analyze how specific water-management practices affect factors such as water levels, flows, and salinities. In lieu of testing a variety of scenario simulations in a trial-and-error manner, an optimization technique may be used to more precisely and directly define good water-management alternatives. A numerical model application in the coastal regions of Florida Bay and Everglades National Park (ENP), representing the surface- and ground-water hydrology for the region, is a good example of a tool used to evaluate restoration scenarios. The Southern Inland and Coastal System (SICS) model simulates this area with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic surface-water model and a three-dimensional ground-water model, linked to represent the interaction of the two systems with salinity transport. This coastal wetland environment is of great interest in restoration efforts, and the SICS model is used to analyze the effects of alternative water-management scenarios. The SICS model is run within an inverse modeling program called UCODE. In this application, UCODE adjusts the regulated inflows to ENP while SICS is run iteratively. UCODE creates parameters that define inflow within an allowable range for the SICS model based on SICS model output statistics, with the objective of matching user-defined target salinities that meet ecosystem restoration criteria. Preliminary results obtained using two different parameterization methods illustrate the ability of the model to achieve the goals of adjusting the range and reducing the variance of salinity values in the target area. The salinity variance in the primary zone of interest was reduced from an original value of 0.509 psu2 to values 0.418 psu2 and 0.342 psu2 using different methods. Simulations with one, two, and three target areas indicate that optimization is limited near model boundaries and the target location nearest the tidal boundary may not be improved. These experiments indicate that this method can be useful for designing water-delivery schemes to achieve certain water-quality objectives. Additionally, this approach avoids much of the intuitive type of experimentation with different flow schemes that has often been used to develop restoration scenarios. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computer model of Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, Paul; Tasker, Gary D.

1996-01-01

This report describes a computer model of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system in central New Jersey. The computer model provides a technical basis for evaluating the effects of alternative patterns of operation of the Raritan River Basin water-supply system during extended periods of below-average precipitation. The computer model is a continuity-accounting model consisting of a series of interconnected nodes. At each node, the inflow volume, outflow volume, and change in storage are determined and recorded for each month. The model runs with a given set of operating rules and water-use requirements including releases, pumpages, and diversions. The model can be used to assess the hypothetical performance of the Raritan River Basin water- supply system in past years under alternative sets of operating rules. It also can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as the depletion of reservoir contents below a specified threshold or of streamflows below statutory minimum passing flows, for a period of up to 12 months. The model was constructed on the basis of current reservoir capacities and the natural, unregulated monthly runoff values recorded at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow- gaging stations in the basin.

Alternative occupied volume integrity (OVI) tests and analyses.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-10-01

FRA, supported by the Volpe Center, conducted research on alternative methods of evaluating occupied volume integrity (OVI) in passenger railcars. Guided by this research, an alternative methodology for evaluating OVI that ensures an equivalent or gr...

Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

2014-12-01

In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors influencing research and development on this critically important topic. Specifically we will focus on how to embed simulation models within an economic framework, how to link fire models with models of wildfire management expenditures, how to evaluate alternative management policies, and how to measure cost-effectiveness.

Risk Based Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.; Hartman, R. K.

2017-12-01

Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) is a risk based approach of reservoir flood operations that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, each member of an ESP is individually modeled to forecast system conditions and calculate risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. Reservoir release decisions are computed which seek to manage forecasted risk to established risk tolerance levels. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC, which approximates flow forecasts for 61 ensemble members for a 15-day horizon. Model simulation results of the EFO alternative demonstrate a 36% increase in median end of water year (September 30) storage levels over existing operations. Additionally, model results show no increase in occurrence of flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that the EFO alternative may be a viable approach for managing Lake Mendocino for multiple purposes (water supply, flood mitigation, ecosystems) and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Caenorhabditis elegans as an alternative in vivo model to determine oral uptake, nanotoxicity, and efficacy of melatonin-loaded lipid-core nanocapsules on paraquat damage

PubMed Central

Charão, Mariele Feiffer; Souto, Caroline; Brucker, Natália; Barth, Anelise; Jornada, Denise S; Fagundez, Daiandra; Ávila, Daiana Silva; Eifler-Lima, Vera L; Guterres, Silvia S; Pohlmann, Adriana R; Garcia, Solange Cristina

2015-01-01

Caenorhabditis elegans is an alternative in vivo model that is being successfully used to assess the pharmacological and toxic effects of drugs. The exponential growth of nanotechnology requires the use of alternative in vivo models to assess the toxic effects of theses nanomaterials. The use of polymeric nanocapsules has shown promising results for drug delivery. Moreover, these formulations have not been used in cases of intoxication, such as in treatment of paraquat (PQ) poisoning. Thus, the use of drugs with properties improved by nanotechnology is a promising approach to overcome the toxic effects of PQ. This research aimed to evaluate the absorption of rhodamine B-labeled melatonin (Mel)-loaded lipid-core nanocapsules (LNC) by C. elegans, the application of this model in nanotoxicology, and the protection of Mel-LNC against PQ damage. The formulations were prepared by self-assembly and characterized by particle sizing, zeta potential, drug content, and encapsulation efficiency. The results demonstrated that the formulations had narrow size distributions. Rhodamine B-labeled Mel-LNC were orally absorbed and distributed in the worms. The toxicity assessment of LNC showed a lethal dose 50% near the highest dose tested, indicating low toxicity of the nanocapsules. Moreover, pretreatment with Mel-LNC significantly increased the survival rate, reduced the reactive oxygen species, and maintained the development in C. elegans exposed to PQ compared to those worms that were either untreated or pretreated with free Mel. These results demonstrated for the first time the uptake and distribution of Mel-LNC by a nematode, and indicate that while LNC is not toxic, Mel-LNC prevents the effects of PQ poisoning. Thus, C. elegans may be an interesting alternative model to test the nanocapsules toxicity and efficacy. PMID:26300641

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

PubMed

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2010-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.