Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Mapping Climate Science Information Needs and Networks in the Northwest, USA through Evaluating the Northwest Climate Science Center Climate Science Digest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Watts, L. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Mankowski, J. D.

2017-12-01

Climate science, already a highly interdisciplinary field, is rapidly evolving, and natural resource managers are increasingly involved in policymaking and adaptation decisions to address climate change that need to be informed by state-of-the-art climate science. Consequently, there is a strong demand for unique organizations that engender collaboration and cooperation between government, non-profit, academic and for-profit sectors that are addressing issues relating to natural resources management and climate adaptation and resilience. These organizations are often referred to as boundary organizations. The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NP LCC) are two such boundary organizations operating in different contexts. Together, the NW CSC and the NP LCC fulfill the need for sites of co-production between researchers and managers working on climate-related issues, and a key component of this work is a monthly climate science newsletter that includes recent climate science journal articles, reports, and climate-related events. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of the climate science digest (CSD) through a three-pronged approach: a) in-depth interviews with natural resource managers who use the CSD, b) poll questions distributed to CSD subscribers, and c) quantitative analysis of CSD effectiveness using analytics from MailChimp distribution. We aim to a) map the reach of the CSD across the Northwest and at a national level; b) understand the efficacy of the CSD at communicating climate science to diverse audiences; c) evaluate the usefulness of CSD content for diverse constituencies of subscribers; d) glean transferrable knowledge for future evaluations of boundary management tools; and e) establish a protocol for designing climate science newsletters for other agencies disseminating climate science information. We will present results from all three steps of our evaluation process and describe their implications for future evaluations of climate science communications products and other boundary management tools in the field of natural resources management.

Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes.

PubMed

Capinha, César; Larson, Eric R; Tricarico, Elena; Olden, Julian D; Gherardi, Francesca

2013-08-01

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts are diverse, long-term, and not easily predictable. Adapting to climate change requires making context specific and forward-looking decisions regarding a variety of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities when the future is highly uncertain. EPA scientis...

Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The United States southern and central High Plains including western Kansas are experiencing declining ground water supplies from the Ogallala as a result of withdrawals for irrigation exceeding annual recharge, this situation will be exacerbated by future climate change. The purpose of this simulat...

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

PubMed

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

PubMed Central

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W. Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions. PMID:25874407

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Precipitation extremes and their relation to climatic indices in the Pacific Northwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, Mahkameh; Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-06-01

There has been focus on the influence of climate indices on precipitation extremes in the literature. Current study presents the evaluation of the precipitation-based extremes in Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We first analyzed the precipitation-based extremes using statistically (ten GCMs) and dynamically downscaled (three GCMs) past and future climate projections. Seven precipitation-based indices that help inform about the flood duration/intensity are used. These indices help in attaining first-hand information on spatial and temporal scales for different service sectors including energy, agriculture, forestry etc. Evaluation of these indices is first performed in historical period (1971-2000) followed by analysis of their relation to large scale tele-connections. Further we mapped these indices over the area to evaluate the spatial variation of past and future extremes in downscaled and observational data. The analysis shows that high values of extreme indices are clustered in either western or northern parts of the basin for historical period whereas the northern part is experiencing higher degree of change in the indices for future scenario. The focus is also on evaluating the relation of these extreme indices to climate tele-connections in historical period to understand their relationship with extremes over CRB. Various climate indices are evaluated for their relationship using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Results indicated that, out of 13 climate tele-connections used in the study, CRB is being most affected inversely by East Pacific (EP), Western Pacific (WP), East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlaentic Oscillation (NAO).

The Future of Evaluation in a Climate of Federal Deregulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkel-Keller, Claudia

The future role and importance of educational evaluation are analyzed in terms of the Educational Consolidation and Improvement Act (1981), a block grant whose provisions minimize planning, reporting, evaluation and accountability requirements to ensure that national goals are met. The background in federal and state evaluation programs is…

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Carbon Offset Forestry: Forecasting Ecosystem Effects (COFFEE) Project Implementation Plan

EPA Science Inventory

COFFEE will evaluate the environmental impacts of implementing various COF practices by using the amount of total ecosystem C (TEC) sequestered in forests as the integrative response metric. These evaluations will be done for current-climate and future-climate scenarios and will...

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

The evaluation of the climate change effects on maize and fennel cultivation by means of an hydrological physically based model: the case study of an irrigated district of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, M. S.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Fiorentino, N.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

The effect of climate change on irrigated agricultural systems will be different from area to area depending on some factors as: (i) water availability, (ii) crop water demand (iii) soil hydrological behavior and (iv) irrigation management strategy. The adaptation of irrigated crop systems to future climate change can be supported by physically based model which simulate the water and heat fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of climate change on the heat and water balance of a maize-fennel rotation. This was applied to a on-demand irrigation district of Southern Italy ("Destra Sele", Campania Region, 22.645 ha). Two climate scenarios were considered, current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050), the latter constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios. For each climate scenario the soil moisture regime of the selected study area was calculated by means of a simulation model of the soil-water-atmosphere system (SWAP). Synthetic indicators of the soil water regimes (e.g., crop water stress index - CWSI, available water content) have been calculated and impacts evaluated taking into account the yield response functions to water availability of different cultivars. Different irrigation delivering strategies were also simulated. The hydrological model SWAP was applied to the representative soils of the whole area (20 soil units) for which the soil hydraulic properties were derived by means of pedo-transfer function (HYPRES) tested and validated on the typical soils in the study area. Upper boundary conditions were derived from two climate scenarios, i.e. current and future. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were derived from field experiments, in the same area, where the SWAP model was calibrated and validated. The results obtained have shown a significant increase of CWSI in the future climate scenario, and some spatial patterns strongly influenced by the soils characteristics. Adaptability of different maize cultivars has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: Plant Adaptative capacity, SWAP, Climate changes, Maize, Fennel

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Landuse/Landcover and Climate Change Interaction in the Derived Savannah Region of Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akintuyi, A. O.; Fasona, M.; Soneye, A. S. O.

2016-12-01

The interaction of landuse/Landcover (LULC) and climate change, to a large extent, involves anthropogenic activities. This study was carried out in the derived savannah of Nigeria, a delicate ecological zone where the interaction of LULC and climate change could be well appreciated. The study evaluated coupled interaction between LULC and climate change and assessed the changes in the landuse/landcover patterns for the periods 1972, 1986, 2002 and 2010, evaluated the present (1941 - 2010) and future (2011 - 2050) variability in rainfall patterns and an attempt was made to predict the interaction between LULC and climate change during future climate. The study adopted remote sensing and GIS techniques, land change modeller and multivariate statistics The results suggest that the built up area, farmland, waterbody and woodland experienced a rapid increase of about 1,134.69%, 1,202.85%, 631.51% and 188.09%, respectively, while the forest cover, degraded surfaces and grassland lost about 19.32%, 72.76% and 0.05% respectively between 1972 and 2010. Furthermore, the study predicted 40.28% and 37.84% reduction in the forested area between 1986 and 2050 and 2010 and 2050 respectively. The study concludes that rainfall will be the major driver of LULC change within the study area under a future climate.

Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, Marta; Lipińska, Monika; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Szlachetko, Dariusz L; Naczk, Aleksandra M

2017-10-05

Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Engineering a future for amphibians under a changing climate

Treesearch

Noreen Parks; Deanna H. Olson

2011-01-01

Climate variation exacerbates threats to amphibians such as disease and habitat loss. Yet, by and large existing species- and land-management plans give little if any consideration to climate impacts. Moreover, many management actions that do address emerging climate patterns have yet to be evaluated for feasibility and effectiveness. To help address these needs,...

Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Alder, J.R.; Allan, A.M.

2011-01-01

We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and the RegCM3, a basic evaluation of the model output and examples of simulated future climate. We also provide information needed to access the web applications for visualizing and downloading the data, and give complete metadata that describe the variables in the datasets.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Amy Clark Eagle; Joshua G. Cohen; Rich Corner; Peter B. Reich; Tim Baker; Sophan Chhin; Eric Clark; David Fehringer; Jon Fosgitt; James Gries; Christine Hall; Kimberly R. Hall; Robert Heyd; Christopher L. Hoving; Ines Ibáñez; Don Kuhr; Stephen Matthews; Jennifer Muladore; Knute Nadelhoffer; David Neumann; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Matt Sands; Randy Swaty; Leiloni Wonch; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

2014-01-01

Forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate...

Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Kelly Barrett; Randy Kolka; Casey McQuiston; Brian Palik; Peter B. Reich; Clarence Turner; Mark White; Cheryl Adams; Anthony D' Amato; Suzanne Hagell; Patricia Johnson; Rosemary Johnson; Mike Larson; Stephen Matthews; Rebecca Montgomery; Steve Olson; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jack Rajala; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

2014-01-01

Forests in northern Minnesota will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and...

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Evaluation of climate variability on drought occurrence in an agricultural watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in the future hydrologic cycle due to changes in precipitation and temperature are likely to be associated with increases in hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability on drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Goodwater Creek Experim...

The potential impacts of climate change and variability on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

Mary McKenney-Easterling; David R. DeWalle; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anthony R. Buda; Anthony R. Buda

2000-01-01

As part of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment, an evaluation is being made of the impacts of climate variability and potential future climate change on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region. This paper provides a brief overview of the current status of forests in the region, and then focuses on 2 components of this evaluation: (1) modeling of the potential...

Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Using Analogue Meteorological Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faybishenko, B.

2005-12-01

Net infiltration is a key hydrologic parameter that, throughout the unsaturated zone, controls the rate of deep percolation, the groundwater recharge, radionuclide transport, and seepage into underground tunnels. Because net infiltration is largely affected by climatic conditions, future changes in climatic conditions will potentially alter net infiltration. The objectives of this presentation are to: (1) Present a conceptual model and a semi-empirical approach for regional climatic forecasting of net infiltration, based on precipitation and temperature data from analogue meteorological stations; and (2) Demonstrate the results of forecasting net infiltration for future climates - interglacial, monsoon and glacial - over the Yucca Mountain region for a period of 500,000 years. Calculations of net infiltration were performed using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, and potential evapotranspiration was evaluated from the temperature-based Thornthwaite formula. (Both Budyko's and Thornthwaite's formulae have been used broadly in hydrological studies.) The results of these calculations were used for ranking net infiltration, along with aridity and precipitation-effectiveness (P-E) indices, for future climatic scenarios. Using this approach, we determined a general trend of increasing net infiltration from the present-day (interglacial) climate to the monsoon, intermediate (glacial transition) climate, a trend that continued into the glacial climate time frame. The ranking of aridity and P-E indices is practically the same as that for net infiltration. Validation of the computed net infiltration rates yielded a good match with other field and modeling study results related to groundwater recharge and net infiltration evaluation.

Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

2016-12-01

Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for irrigated sorghum, and strong control of N rate on N2O emissions suggests that a dryland sorghum bioproduct system could be environmentally sustainable in the Southwestern US with effective N management, and warrants further investigation in field trials.

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long-term successional legacy and climate–fire interactions

Treesearch

Louise Loudermilk; Robert Scheller; Peter Weisberg; Jian Yang; Thomas Dilts; Sarah Karam; Carl Skinner

2013-01-01

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects...

Potential Changes in Tree Species Richness and Forest Community Types following Climate Change

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2001-01-01

Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types were evaluated for the eastern United States according to five scenarios of future climate change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). DISTRIB, an empirical model that uses a regression tree analysis approach, was used to generate suitable habitat, or potential future...

Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

T. N. Wasserman; S. A. Cushman; A. S. Shirk; E. L. Landguth; J. S. Littell

2012-01-01

We utilize empirically derived estimates of landscape resistance to assess current landscape connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, and project how a warming climate may affect landscape resistance and population connectivity in the future. We evaluate the influences of five potential future temperature scenarios...

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins

PubMed Central

Lutz, Arthur F.; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2017-01-01

Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region. PMID:29287098

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

Evaluation of Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTTP) Climatic Data for Use in Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) Calibration and Other Pavement Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

Improvements in the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) Programs climate data are needed to support current and future research into climate effects on pavement materials, design, and performance. The calibration and enhancement of the Mechanist...

Adaptive and interactive climate futures: systematic review of ‘serious games’ for engagement and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood, Stephen; Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.; Blackett, Paula; Edwards, Peter

2018-06-01

Climate change is already having adverse impacts on ecosystems, communities and economic activities through higher temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extremes. However, a gap remains between public understanding, scientific knowledge about climate change, and changes in behaviour to effect adaptation. ‘Serious games’—games used for purposes other than entertainment—are one way to reduce this adaptation deficit by enhancing opportunities for social learning and enabling positive action. Games can provide communities with the opportunity to interactively explore different climate futures, build capability and capacity for dealing with complex challenges, and socialise adaptation priorities with diverse publics. Using systematic review methods, this paper identifies, reviews, synthesises and assesses the literature on serious games for climate change adaptation. To determine where and how impact is achieved, we draw on an evaluation framework grounded in social learning, to assess which combinations of cognitive (knowledge and thinking), normative (norms and approaches) and relational (how people connect and network building) learning are achieved. Results show that factors influencing the overall success in influencing behaviour and catalysing learning for adaptation include generating high levels of inter- and intra- level trust between researchers, practitioners and community participants; strong debriefing and evaluation practices; and the use of experienced and knowledgeable facilitators. These results can help inform future game design, and research methodologies to develop robust ways for engaging with stakeholders and end users, and enhance learning effects for resilient climate futures.

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PubMed

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Assessing the impact of extreme air temperature on fruit trees by modeling weather dependent phenology with variety-specific thermal requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Missere, Daniele; Buscaroli, Claudio; Menenti, Massimo

2013-04-01

Extremely high and extremely low temperature may have a terminal impact on the productivity of fruit tree if occurring at critical phases of development. Notorious examples are frost during flowering or extremely high temperature during fruit setting. The dates of occurrence of such critical phenological stages depend on the weather history from the start of the yearly development cycle in late autumn, thus the impact of climate extremes can only be evaluated correctly if the phenological development is modeled taking into account the weather history of the specific year being evaluated. Climate change impact may lead to a shift in timing of phenological stages and change in the duration of vegetative and reproductive phases. A changing climate can also exhibit a greater climatic variability producing quite large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events. We propose a two-stage approach to evaluate the impact of predicted future climate on the productivity of fruit trees. The phenological development is modeled using phase - specific thermal times and variety specific thermal requirements for several cultivars of pear, apricot and peach. These requirements were estimated using phenological observations over several years in Emilia Romagna region and scientific literature. We calculated the dates of start and end of rest completion, bud swell, flowering, fruit setting and ripening stages , from late autumn through late summer. Then phase-specific minimum and maximum cardinal temperature were evaluated for present and future climate to estimate how frequently they occur during any critically sensitive phenological phase. This analysis has been done for past climate (1961 - 1990) and fifty realizations of a year representative of future climate (2021 - 2050). A delay in rest completion of about 10-20 days has been predicted for future climate for most of the cultivars. On the other hand the predicted rise in air temperature causes an earlier development of crops thus a reduction in the length of the different phenological stages. Despite the earlier timing of phenological phases may expose the crops to frost hazard, the mean increase of air temperature avoids relevant impacts on crops. The frequency of air temperatures higher than the cardinal temperatures is expected to increase by 5% compared with the reference 1961 - 1990 climate. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

2011-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

A National Energy-Water System Assessment Framework (NEWS): Synopsis of Stage 1 Research Strategy and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S.; Sun, Y.; Tidwell, V. C.; Corsi, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Glidden, S.; Suh, S.

2017-12-01

The focus of this talk is on climate adaptation and the reliability of power supply infrastructure when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. Power supply is critically dependent upon water resources, particularly to cool thermoelectric plants, making the sector particularly sensitive to any shifts in the geography or seasonality of water supply. We report on results from an NSF-Funded Water Sustainability and Climate effort aimed at uncovering key energy and economic system vulnerabilities. We have developed the National Energy-Water System assessment framework (NEWS) to systematically evaluate: a) the performance of the nation's electricity sector under multiple climate scenarios; b) the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation; and, c) the impacts of energy technology and investment tradeoffs on the economic productivity, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition. Our project combines core engineering and geophysical models (ReEDS [Regional Energy Deployment System], TP2M [Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution], and WBM [Water Balance]) through unique digital "handshake" protocols that operate across different institutions and modeling platforms. Combined system outputs are fed into a regional-to-national scale economic input/output model to evaluate economic consequences of climate constraints, technology choices, and environmental regulation. The impact assessments in NEWS are carried out through a series of climate/energy policy scenario studies to 2050. We find that despite significant climate-water impacts on individual plants, the current US power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. However, the magnitude and implications of climate-water impacts vary depending on the configuration of the future power sector. To evaluate future power supply performance, we model alternative electricity sector pathways in combination with varying climate-water conditions. Further, water-linked disruptions in electricity supply yield substantial impacts on regional economies yet system-level shocks can be attenuated through different technology mixes and infrastructure.

Evaluation of the multi-model CORDEX-Africa hindcast using RCMES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lean, P.; Mattmann, C. A.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Hewitson, B.; Jones, C.

2011-12-01

Recent global climate change studies have concluded with a high confidence level that the observed increasing trend in the global-mean surface air temperatures since mid-20th century is triggered by the emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). The increase in the global-mean temperature due to anthropogenic emissions is nearly monotonic and may alter the climatological norms resulting in a new climate normal. In the presence of anthropogenic climate change, assessing regional impacts of the altered climate state and developing the plans for mitigating any adverse impacts are an important concern. Assessing future climate state and its impact remains a difficult task largely because of the uncertainties in future emissions and model errors. Uncertainties in climate projections propagates into impact assessment models and result in uncertainties in the impact assessments. In order to facilitate the evaluation of model data, a fundamental step for assessing model errors, the JPL Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES: Lean et al. 2010; Hart et al. 2011) has been developed through a joint effort of the investigators from UCLA and JPL. RCMES is also a regional climate component of a larger worldwide ExArch project. We will present the evaluation of the surface temperatures and precipitation from multiple RCMs participating in the African component of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that has organized a suite of regional climate projection experiments in which multiple RCMs and GCMs are incorporated. As a part of the project, CORDEX organized a 20-year regional climate hindcast study in order to quantify and understand the uncertainties originating from model errors. Investigators from JPL, UCLA, and the CORDEX-Africa team collaborate to analyze the RCM hindcast data using RCMES. The analysis is focused on measuring the closeness between individual regional climate model outputs as well as their ensembles and observed data. The model evaluation is quantified in terms of widely used metrics. Details on the conceptual outline and architecture of RCMES is presented in two companion papers "The Regional climate model Evaluation System (RCMES) based on contemporary satellite and other observations for assessing regional climate model fidelity" and "A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation" in GC07 and IN30, respectively.

Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S.; Sun, G.; Cohen, E.; McNulty, S. G.; Caldwell, P.; Duan, K.; Zhang, Y.

2015-12-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

Effect of Climate Change on Surface Ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zeng, Guang; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

2016-01-01

The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood.

PubMed

Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy H; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-11-01

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

Managing burned landscapes: Evaluating future management strategies for resilient forests under a warming climate

Treesearch

K. L. Shive; P. Z. Fule; C. H. Sieg; B. A. Strom; M. E. Hunter

2014-01-01

Climate change effects on forested ecosystems worldwide include increases in drought-related mortality, changes to disturbance regimes and shifts in species distributions. Such climate-induced changes will alter the outcomes of current management strategies, complicating the selection of appropriate strategies to promote forest resilience. We modelled forest growth in...

Does climatic variability influence agricultural land prices under differing uses? The Texas High Plains case

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains faces projections of increasing temperature and declining precipitation in the future on account of its semi-arid climate. This research evaluated the impact of climatic variability on agricultural land prices under different land uses in the Texas High Plains, employing the Ri...

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Hong He; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Patricia Butler; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Matthew Albrecht; Richard Blume-Weaver; Paul Deizman; John DePuy; William D. Dijak; Gary Dinkel; Songlin Fei; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Michael Leahy; Stephen Matthews; Paul Nelson; Brad Oberle; Judi Perez; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; John Shuey; Adam B. Smith; Charles Studyvin; John M. Tirpak; Jeffery W. Walk; Wen J. Wang; Laura Watts; Dale Weigel; Steve Westin

2014-01-01

The forests in the Central Hardwoods Region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends,...

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

A framework for evaluating statistical downscaling performance under changing climatic conditions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, K. W.; Balaji, V.; Lanzante, J.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. K.; Gaitan, C. F.

2013-12-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods may be viewed as generating a value-added product - a refinement of global climate model (GCM) output designed to add finer scale detail and to address GCM shortcomings via a process that gleans information from a combination of observations and GCM-simulated climate change responses. Making use of observational data sets and GCM simulations representing the same historical period, cross-validation techniques allow one to assess how well an SD method meets this goal. However, lacking observations of future, the extent to which a particular SD method's skill might degrade when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed in the same manner. Here we illustrate and describe extensions to a 'perfect model' experimental design that seeks to quantify aspects of SD method performance both for a historical period (1979-2008) and for late 21st century climate projections. Examples highlighting cases in which downscaling performance deteriorates in future climate projections will be discussed. Also, results will be presented showing how synthetic datasets having known statistical properties may be used to further isolate factors responsible for degradations in SD method skill under changing climatic conditions. We will describe a set of input files used to conduct these analyses that are being made available to researchers who wish to utilize this experimental framework to evaluate SD methods they have developed. The gridded data sets cover a region centered on the contiguous 48 United States with a grid spacing of approximately 25km, have daily time resolution (e.g., maximum and minimum near-surface temperature and precipitation), and represent a total of 120 years of model simulations. This effort is consistent with the 2013 National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop goal of supporting a community approach to promote the informed use of downscaled climate projections.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

2013-05-01

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

Evaluation of high-resolution climate simulations for West Africa using COSMO-CLM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

2017-04-01

The climate change modeling activities within the WASCAL program (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) concentrate on the provisioning of future climate change scenario data at high spatial and temporal resolution and quality in West Africa. Such information is highly required for impact studies in water resources and agriculture for the development of reliable climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we present a detailed evaluation of high simulation runs based on the regional climate model, COSMO model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM). The model is applied over West Africa in a nested approach with two simulation domains at 0.44° and 0.11° resolution using reanalysis data from ERA-Interim (1979-2013). The models runs are compared to several state-of-the-art observational references (e.g., CRU, CHIRPS) including daily precipitation data provided by national meteorological services in West Africa. Special attention is paid to the reproduction of the dynamics of the West African Monsoon (WMA), its associated precipitation patterns and crucial agro-climatological indices such as the onset of the rainy season. In addition, first outcomes of the regional climate change simulations driven by MPI-ESM-LR are presented for a historical period (1980 to 2010) and two future periods (2020 to 2050, 2070 to 2100). The evaluation of the reanalysis runs shows that COSMO-CLM is able to reproduce the observed major climate characteristics including the West African Monsoon within the range of comparable RCM evaluations studies. However, substantial uncertainties remain, especially in the Sahel zone. The added value of the higher resolution of the nested run is reflected in a smaller bias in extreme precipitation statistics with respect to the reference data.

A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, Derek; Kapnick, Sarah

2016-01-01

To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate's variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.

Adaptation Measures Evaliation on Agriculture Under Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Vicuna, S.; Gironas, J. A.; Meza, F. J.

2016-12-01

Future climate change scenarios threaten current practices in agriculture and therefore adaptation measures have been proposed to overcome this possible situation. Regional to local ideas apply for all kind of adaptation measures and can be found among literature for Central Chile, but their quantitative efficiency is rarely evaluated. Furthermore, land uses changes are commonly neglected in such evaluations. This research use the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) to simulate weekly water distribution and consumption in Chile's rural areas up to 2050. Using information directly provided by the Water User Organizations (WUO), the developed model assesses possible future impacts on 2 crops (corn and plum) under 15 climate scenarios and land use trends. Results show that WEAP-PGM tool can represent satisfactorily crop sensitiveness to historic and future circumstances. Nine scenarios satisfy average crop water demands, but all of them present a diminished yield (1%-14%) and production (8%-20%). Just six scenarios cannot meet crop water demands (40-70% of reliability) if adaptation measures are not applied. Given this need, two adaptation measures were evaluated: a) using all water rights and b) irrigation improvements. The second option showed to be the most effective measure leading to the satisfaction of crop water demands under all the scenarios, but still a diminished yield and production remained.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

2014-12-02

Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators and northward range expansion was predicted for the future with climate change. However, current and future predicted geographic distributions of Ae. albopictus varied amongst the climatic indicators used. Further field studies are needed to assess which climatic indicator is the most accurate in predicting regions suitable for Ae. albopictus survival in North America.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poutou, E.; Krinner, G.; Genthon, C.

2002-12-01

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate The role of lakes and wetlands in present-day high latitude climate is quantified using a general circulation model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric model includes a lake module which is presented and validated. Seasonal and spatial wetland distribution is calculated as a function of the hydrological budget of the wetlands themselves and of continental soil whose runoff feeds them. Wetland extent is simulated and discussed both in simulations forced by observed climate and in general circulation model simulations. In off-line simulations, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, the lake model simulates correctly observed lake ice durations, while the wetland extent is somewhat underestimated in the boreal regions. Coupled to the general circulation model, the lake model yields satisfying ice durations, although the climate model biases have impacts on the modeled lake ice conditions. Boreal wetland extents are overestimated in the general circulation model as simulated precipitation is too high. The impact of inundated surfaces on the simulated climate is strongest in summer when these surfaces are ice-free. Wetlands seem to play a more important role than lakes in cooling the boreal regions in summer and in humidifying the atmosphere. The role of lakes and wetlands in future climate change is evaluated by analyzing simulations of present and future climate with and without prescribed inland water bodies.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Katharine Hayhoe

2011-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing...

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Mladenoff; Emily Peters; Kirk R. Wythers; Weimin Xi; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Linda R. Parker; Amy J. Amman; Brian Bogaczyk; Christine Handler; Ellen Lesch; Peter B. Reich; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Sami Khanal; Feng Liu; Tara Bal; Dustin Bronson; Andrew Burton; Jim Ferris; Jon Fosgitt; Shawn Hagan; Erin Johnston; Evan Kane; Colleen Matula; Ryan O' Connor; Dale Higgins; Matt St. Pierre; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; David Neitzel; Michael Notaro; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert Ziel

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate...

From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

2016-04-01

Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

Can metric-based approaches really improve multi-model climate projections? A perfect model framework applied to summer temperature change in France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boé, Julien; Terray, Laurent

2014-05-01

Ensemble approaches for climate change projections have become ubiquitous. Because of large model-to-model variations and, generally, lack of rationale for the choice of a particular climate model against others, it is widely accepted that future climate change and its impacts should not be estimated based on a single climate model. Generally, as a default approach, the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) is considered to provide the best estimate of climate change signals. The MMEM approach is based on the implicit hypothesis that all the models provide equally credible projections of future climate change. This hypothesis is unlikely to be true and ideally one would want to give more weight to more realistic models. A major issue with this alternative approach lies in the assessment of the relative credibility of future climate projections from different climate models, as they can only be evaluated against present-day observations: which present-day metric(s) should be used to decide which models are "good" and which models are "bad" in the future climate? Once a supposedly informative metric has been found, other issues arise. What is the best statistical method to combine multiple models results taking into account their relative credibility measured by a given metric? How to be sure in the end that the metric-based estimate of future climate change is not in fact less realistic than the MMEM? It is impossible to provide strict answers to those questions in the climate change context. Yet, in this presentation, we propose a methodological approach based on a perfect model framework that could bring some useful elements of answer to the questions previously mentioned. The basic idea is to take a random climate model in the ensemble and treat it as if it were the truth (results of this model, in both past and future climate, are called "synthetic observations"). Then, all the other members from the multi-model ensemble are used to derive thanks to a metric-based approach a posterior estimate of climate change, based on the synthetic observation of the metric. Finally, it is possible to compare the posterior estimate to the synthetic observation of future climate change to evaluate the skill of the method. The main objective of this presentation is to describe and apply this perfect model framework to test different methodological issues associated with non-uniform model weighting and similar metric-based approaches. The methodology presented is general, but will be applied to the specific case of summer temperature change in France, for which previous works have suggested potentially useful metrics associated with soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions. The relative performances of different simple statistical approaches to combine multiple model results based on metrics will be tested. The impact of ensemble size, observational errors, internal variability, and model similarity will be characterized. The potential improvements associated with metric-based approaches compared to the MMEM is terms of errors and uncertainties will be quantified.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

2017-07-01

To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the use of conceptual models for hydrological projections in northern Tunisia.

Methodology to assess and map the potential development of forest ecosystems exposed to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition: A pilot study in Germany.

PubMed

Schröder, Winfried; Nickel, Stefan; Jenssen, Martin; Riediger, Jan

2015-07-15

A methodology for mapping ecosystems and their potential development under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition was developed using examples from Germany. The methodology integrated data on vegetation, soil, climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. These data were used to classify ecosystem types regarding six ecological functions and interrelated structures. Respective data covering 1961-1990 were used for reference. The assessment of functional and structural integrity relies on comparing a current or future state with an ecosystem type-specific reference. While current functions and structures of ecosystems were quantified by measurements, potential future developments were projected by geochemical soil modelling and data from a regional climate change model. The ecosystem types referenced the potential natural vegetation and were mapped using data on current tree species coverage and land use. In this manner, current ecosystem types were derived, which were related to data on elevation, soil texture, and climate for the years 1961-1990. These relations were quantified by Classification and Regression Trees, which were used to map the spatial patterns of ecosystem type clusters for 1961-1990. The climate data for these years were subsequently replaced by the results of a regional climate model for 1991-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. For each of these periods, one map of ecosystem type clusters was produced and evaluated with regard to the development of areal coverage of ecosystem type clusters over time. This evaluation of the structural aspects of ecological integrity at the national level was added by projecting potential future values of indicators for ecological functions at the site level by using the Very Simple Dynamic soil modelling technique based on climate data and two scenarios of nitrogen deposition as input. The results were compared to the reference and enabled an evaluation of site-specific ecosystem changes over time which proved to be both, positive and negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

2015-01-01

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Downscaled Regional Climate Information for the Southeastern US

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development in Research Triangle Park, NC, has been developing regional climate and air quality fields for North America for current and future periods. Research emphasis has been placed on evaluating near-s...

Water Resources and Supply Adaptation: A paradigm Shifting for Future Climate?

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change adds another layer of complexity in planning, engineering and management of water resources and urban water infrastructures. Yet our current practice is confined to the traditional approach that evaluates developmental scenarios and their sustainability mostly by a...

Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

2013-12-01

Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of measured and estimated soil hydraulic properties on simulated water regime in the analysis of grapevine adaptability to future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Agrillo, Antonietta; Dragonetti, Giovanna; Mileti, Antonio; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

In the last years many research works have been addressed to evaluate the impact of future climate on crop productivity and plant water use at different spatial scales (global, regional, field) by means of simulation models of agricultural crop systems. Most of these approaches use estimated soil hydraulic properties, through pedotransfer functions (PTF). This choice is related to soil data availability: soil data bases lack measured soil hydraulic properties, but generally they contain information that allow the application of PTF . Although the reliability of the predicted future climate scenarios cannot be immediately validated, we address to evaluate the effects of a simplification of the soil system by using PTF. Thus we compare simulations performed with measured soil hydraulic properties versus simulations carried out with estimated properties. The water regimes resulting from the two procedures are evaluated with respect to crop adaptability to future climate. In particular we will examine if the two procedures bring about different seasonal and spatial variations in the soil water regime patterns, and if these patterns influence adaptation options. The present case study uses the agro-hydrological model SWAP (soil-water-atmosphere and plant) and studies future adaptability of grapevine. The study area is a viticultural area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, BN) devoted to the production of high quality wines (DOC and DOCG), and characterized by a complex geomorphology and pedology. The future climate scenario (2021-2050) was constructed applying statistical downscaling techniques to GCMs scenarios. The moisture regime for 25 soils of the selected study area was calculated by means of SWAP model, using both measured and estimated soil hydraulic properties. In the simulation, the upper boundary conditions were derived from the regional climate scenarios. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. From the output of the simulation runs, the relative evapotranspiration deficit (or Crop Water Stress Index - CWSI) of the soil units was calculated. Since CWSI is considered an important indicator of the qualitative grapevine responses, its pattern in both simulation procedures has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Future efficiency of run of the river hydropower schemes based on climate change scenarios: case study in UK catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten Zapata, Ernesto; Moggridge, Helen; Jones, Julie; Widmann, Martin

2017-04-01

Run-of-the-River (ROR) hydropower schemes are expected to be importantly affected by climate change as they rely in the availability of river flow to generate energy. As temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future, the hydrological cycle will also undergo changes. Therefore, climate models based on complex physical atmospheric interactions have been developed to simulate future climate scenarios considering the atmosphere's greenhouse gas concentrations. These scenarios are classified according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that are generated according to the concentration of greenhouse gases. This study evaluates possible scenarios for selected ROR hydropower schemes within the UK, considering three different RCPs: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 for 2100 relative to pre-industrial values. The study sites cover different climate, land cover, topographic and hydropower scheme characteristics representative of the UK's heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature outputs from state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Euro-CORDEX project are used as input for a HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate the future river flow available. Both uncorrected and bias-corrected RCM simulations are analyzed. The results of this project provide an insight of the possible effects of climate change towards the generation of power from the ROR hydropower schemes according to the different RCP scenarios and contrasts the results obtained from uncorrected and bias-corrected RCMs. This analysis can aid on the adaptation to climate change as well as the planning of future ROR schemes in the region.

Historical Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of the Ponto-Caspian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Coe, Michael T.; Nandini, Sri; Prange, Matthias; Cloke, Hannah; Lunt, Dan

2017-04-01

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between -25 and -29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the lake (currently 371,000 km2). Given projections of future climate change and the importance of the Caspian Sea for fisheries, agriculture, and industry, it is vital to understand how sea levels may vary in the future. Hydrological models can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes for future forecasts. However, it is critical to first evaluate such models using observational data for the present and recent past, and to understand the key hydrological processes driving past changes in sea level. In this study, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model (THMB) (Coe, 2000, 2002) is applied and evaluated to investigate the hydrological processes of the Ponto-Caspian basin for the historical period 1900 to 2000. The model has been forced using observational reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-20) and historical climate model data outputs (from CESM and HadCM3 models) to investigate the variability in the Caspian Sea level and the major river discharges. We examine the differences produced by driving the hydrological model with reanalysis data or climate models. We evaluate the model performance compared to observational discharge measurements and Caspian Sea level data. Secondly, we investigated the sensitivity of historical Caspian Sea level variations to different aspects of climate changes to examine the most important processes involved over this time period.

Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Chugach National Forest and the Kenai Peninsula

Treesearch

Gregory H. Hayward; Steve Colt; Monica L. McTeague; Teresa N. Hollingsworth

2017-01-01

This assessment evaluates the effects of future climate change on a select set of ecological systems and ecosystem services in Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula and Chugach National Forest regions. The focus of the assessment was established during a multi-agency/organization workshop that established the goal to conduct a rigorous evaluation of a limited range of topics rather...

Identifying outdoor thermal risk areas and evaluation of future thermal comfort concerning shading orientation in a traditional settlement.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Tsang; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas; Lin, Tzu-Ping

2018-06-01

The outdoor thermal environment is expected to be deteriorated under climate change. An approach of risk identification including assessment from aspects of thermal stress effect, people's exposure, and local's vulnerability were adopted to study a hot-and-humid traditional rural community located at Tainan, Taiwan. Layers of each aspect were either constructed by in-situ measurements or simulations. To evaluate the future thermal comfort changes by simulations, the prerequisite hourly climate data of three future time slices were produced. Prognostic simulation model, ENVI-met, in combination with diagnostic model, RayMan, were respectively used for identifying current spatial distribution of thermal stress and for assessing the future thermal comfort changes. High thermal risk area was identified by superimposing layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It revealed that because of the tourists' vulnerability to adapt local climate and the inflexibleness of choosing visiting time, it exhibited a high thermal stress at the Main Courtyard where its thermal comfort conditions will be deteriorated due to climate change. Furthermore, the thermal comfort conditions in various shading orientation were analyzed based on the changing climate in three future time slices, i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results show the area with shading in the East and West side is more comfort than in the North side. In hot season, shading in the West side contributes less PET increasing, especially in the afternoon period. The severest overheat problem (the physiological equivalent temperature, PET>40°C) at the Main Courtyard will increase from current 10% to 28% in 2071-2100 in terms of overheating occurrence frequency. The results of this study can be used as the guidelines for environment analysis before planning or redesign community. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

PubMed

Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

2017-06-01

Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

2010-01-01

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies for Grain Sorghum and Cotton Production in the Texas High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothari, K.; Ale, S.; Bordovsky, J.; Hoogenboom, G.; Munster, C. L.

2017-12-01

The semi-arid Texas High Plains (THP) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States. However, agriculture in the THP is faced with the challenges of rapid groundwater depletion in the underlying Ogallala Aquifer, restrictions on pumping groundwater, recurring droughts, and projected warmer and drier future climatic conditions. Therefore, it is imperative to adopt strategies that enhance climate change resilience of THP agriculture to maintain a sustainable agricultural economy in this region. The overall goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change and potential reduction in groundwater availability on production of two major crops in the region, cotton and grain sorghum, and suggest adaptation strategies using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping System Model. The DSSAT model was calibrated and evaluated using data from the long-term cotton-sorghum rotation experiments conducted at Helms Farm near Halfway in the THP. After achieving a satisfactory calibration for crop yield (RMSE < 1.0 T ha-1 or 14%) and dates of onset of various growth stages, the model was used to simulate historic (1980-2010) and future (2040-2070) cotton and sorghum yields and water use. The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) projected future climate datasets from nine CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used in this study. Preliminary results indicated a reduction in irrigated grain sorghum yield per hectare by 6% and 8%, and a reduction in dryland sorghum yield per hectare by 9% and 17% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Grain sorghum future water use declined by about 2% and 5% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Climate change impacts on cotton production and evaluation of several adaptation strategies such as incorporating heat and drought tolerances in cultivars, early planting, shifting to short season varieties, and deficit irrigation are currently being studied.

Hazardous Convective Weather in the Central United States: Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.

2017-12-01

Two sets of 13-year continental-scale convection-permitting simulations were performed using the 4-km-resolution WRF model. They consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during the period October 2000 - September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation for the same period based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The evaluation of the retrospective simulation indicates that the model is able to realistically reproduce the main characteristics of deep precipitating convection observed in the current climate such as the spectra of convective population and propagating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It is also shown that severe convection and associated MCS will increase in frequency and intensity, implying a potential increase in high impact convective weather in a future warmer climate. In this study, the warm-season hazardous convective weather (i.e., tonadoes, hails and damaging gusty wind) in the central United states is examined using these 4-km downscaling simulations. First, a model-based proxy for hazardous convective weather is derived on the basis of a set of characteristic meteorological variables such as the model composite radar reflectivity, updraft helicity, vertical wind shear, and low-level wind. Second, the developed proxy is applied to the retrospective simulation for estimate of the model hazardous weather events during the historical period. Third, the simulated hazardous weather statistics are evaluated against the NOAA severe weather reports. Lastly, the proxy is applied to the future climate simulation for the projected change of hazardous convective weather in response to global warming. Preliminary results will be reported at the 2017 AGU session "High Resolution Climate Modeling".

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2014-01-01

The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041–2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999–2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: −7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models. PMID:24764746

WRF-Cordex simulations for Europe: mean and extreme precipitation for present and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

2013-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, version 3.3.1, was used to perform the European domain Cordex simulations, at 50km resolution. A first simulation, forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), was carried out to evaluate the models performance to represent the mean and extreme precipitation in present European climate. This evaluation is based in the comparison of WRF results against the ECAD regular gridded dataset of daily precipitation. Results are comparable to recent studies with other models for the European region, at this resolution. For the same domain a control and a future scenario (RCP8.5) simulation was performed to assess the climate change impact on the mean and extreme precipitation. These regional simulations were forced by EC-EARTH model results, and, encompass the periods from 1960-2006 and 2006-2100, respectively.

Interaction between Soil Moisture and Air Temperature in the Mississippi River Basin

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing air temperatures are expected to continue in the future. The relation between soil moisture and near surface air temperature is significant for climate change and climate extremes. Evaluation of the relations between soil moisture and temperature was performed by devel...

Hydrologic landscape classification evaluates streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Classification can allow assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to assess vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales. The HL ...

Newer classification and regression tree techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for ecological prediction

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Andy Liaw; Andy Liaw

2006-01-01

We evaluated four statistical models - Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Bagging Trees (BT), Random Forests (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) - for predictive vegetation mapping under current and future climate scenarios according to the Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing quantitative estimates of the power sector's ability to meet loads, given changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Devon Ice cap's future: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling via surface mass balance modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodehacke, C. B.; Mottram, R.; Boberg, F.

2017-12-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we various boundary conditions, ranging from ERA-Interim reanalysis data via global climate model high resolution (5km) output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, to determine the surface mass balance of the Devon ice cap. These SMB estimates are used to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

The future of the Devon Ice cap: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Rodehacke, Christian; Boberg, Fredrik

2017-04-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we use high resolution (5km) simulations from HIRHAM5 to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

Effects of Projected Future Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge and Storage for Two Coastal Aquifers in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolb, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to pose a significant threat to water resources in the future. Guanacaste Province, located in northwestern Costa Rica, has a unique climate that is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as the Central Cordillera mountain range. Although the region experiences a marked rainy season between May and November, the hot, dry summers often stress water resources. Climate change projections suggest increased temperatures and reduced precipitation for the region, which will further stress water supplies. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on groundwater resources for two coastal aquifers, Potrero and Brasilito. The UZF model package coupled with the finite difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and storage. A potential evapotranspiration model was used to estimate groundwater infiltration rates used in the MODFLOW model. Climate change projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to develop climate scenarios, which were compared to historical data. Preliminary results indicate that climate change could reduce future recharge, especially during the dry season. Additionally, the coastal aquifers are at increased risk of reduced storage and increased salinization due to the reductions in groundwater recharge and sea level rise. Climate change could also affect groundwater quality in the region, disrupting the ecosystem and impairing a primary source of drinking water.

Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, S.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Schurgers, G.; Wårlind, D.; Mishurov, M.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Smith, B.; Arneth, A.

2015-06-01

We explore cropland management alternatives and the effect these can have on future C and N pools and fluxes using the land use-enabled dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Simulated crop production, cropland carbon storage, carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. We explore trade-offs between important ecosystem services that can be provided from agricultural fields such as crop yields, retention of nitrogen and carbon storage. These trade-offs are evaluated for current land use and climate and further explored for future conditions within the two future climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Our results show that the potential for carbon sequestration due to typical cropland management practices such as no-till and cover-crops proposed in literature is not realised, globally or over larger climatic regions. Our results highlight important considerations to be made when modelling C-N interactions in agricultural ecosystems under future environmental change, and the effects these have on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study climate suitability of areas for the cultivation of specific crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, J.; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, I.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; Ripoche, D.; Graux, A.; deNoblet, N.

2013-12-01

Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, on the suitability for cropping. Therefore, assessing the future climate suitability of areas for cropping is decisive for anticipating agriculture in a given area. Moreover, it is crucial to have access to the split up information concerning the effect of climate on the achievement of the main ecophysiological processes and cultural practices taking place during the crop cycle. In this way, stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions, such as changes in cultural practices or development of new varieties for example. We proposed an aggregation tool of ecoclimatic indicators to design evaluation trees of climate suitability of areas for cropping, GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators). It calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool allows to characterize climate suitability according to crop ecophysiology, grain/fruit quality or crop management. GETARI proposes the major ecophysiological processes and cultural practices taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The climatic effects on the ecophysiological processes (or cultural practices) during phenological periods are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. Those indices of suitability are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. In order to illustrate how GETARI can be used, we designed evaluation trees in order to study the climate suitability for maize cropping regarding ecophysiology, for wheat cropping regarding its management and for grape cropping regarding its quality. The designed evaluation trees were developed in accordance with expert assessment and were applied in some past climatic conditions in France to verify their consistence. To conclude, the use of indicators does not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide information about suitability of geographical areas for cropping in future climatic conditions and can enable to minimize the risk of crop failure. This work is carried out under the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe).

A bottom-up robust optimization framework for identifying river basin development pathways under deep climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic nonstationarity due to climate change poses challenges for long-term water infrastructure planning in river basin systems. While designing strategies that are flexible or adaptive hold intuitive appeal, development of well-performing strategies requires rigorous quantitative analysis that address uncertainties directly while making the best use of scientific information on the expected evolution of future climate. Multi-stage robust optimization (RO) offers a potentially effective and efficient technique for addressing the problem of staged basin-level planning under climate change, however the necessity of assigning probabilities to future climate states or scenarios is an obstacle to implementation, given that methods to reliably assign probabilities to future climate states are not well developed. We present a method that overcomes this challenge by creating a bottom-up RO-based framework that decreases the dependency on probability distributions of future climate and rather employs them after optimization to aid selection amongst competing alternatives. The iterative process yields a vector of `optimal' decision pathways each under the associated set of probabilistic assumptions. In the final phase, the vector of optimal decision pathways is evaluated to identify the solutions that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities and are most-likely conditional on the climate information. The framework is illustrated for the planning of new dam and hydro-agricultural expansions projects in the Niger River Basin over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060.

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

PubMed

Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

2013-01-01

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to access observation and model datasets, calculate evaluation metrics, and visualize the results. Several other examples of the RCMES capabilities can be found at https://rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Drinking Water Treatment Plant Operation

EPA Science Inventory

It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and, therefore, will influence the design and operation of current and future drinking water treatment systems. Some of these impacts may lead to violations ...

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

Climate change on the Colorado River: a method to search for robust management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefe, R.; Fischbach, J. R.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is a principal source of water for the seven Basin States, providing approximately 16.5 maf per year to users in the southwestern United States and Mexico. Though the dynamics of the river ensure Upper Basin users a reliable supply of water, the three Lower Basin states (California, Nevada, and Arizona) are in danger of delivery interruptions as Upper Basin demand increases and climate change threatens to reduce future streamflows. In light of the recent drought and uncertain effects of climate change on Colorado River flows, we evaluate the performance of a suite of policies modeled after the shortage sharing agreement adopted in December 2007 by the Department of the Interior. We build on the current literature by using a simplified model of the Lower Colorado River to consider future streamflow scenarios given climate change uncertainty. We also generate different scenarios of parametric consumptive use growth in the Upper Basin and evaluate alternate management strategies in light of these uncertainties. Uncertainty associated with climate change is represented with a multi-model ensemble from the literature, using a nearest neighbor perturbation to increase the size of the ensemble. We use Robust Decision Making to compare near-term or long-term management strategies across an ensemble of plausible future scenarios with the goal of identifying one or more approaches that are robust to alternate assumptions about the future. This method entails using search algorithms to quantitatively identify vulnerabilities that may threaten a given strategy (including the current operating policy) and characterize key tradeoffs between strategies under different scenarios.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages

Treesearch

Sparkle L. Malone; Anna W. Schoettle; Jonathan D. Coop

2018-01-01

Like many other high elevation alpine tree species, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. To evaluate its potential vulnerability to shifts in climate, we defined the suitable climate space for each of four genetic lineages of bristlecone pine and for other subalpine tree species in close proximity to...

An assessment of climate change and the vulnerability of wildlife in the Sky Islands of the Southwest

Treesearch

Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch; Megan M. Friggens

2012-01-01

We evaluated the historical and projected trends in climate and vegetation relevant to the Coronado National Forest in southeast Arizona, USA. We then applied this information in an assessment of the vulnerability of 30 species of terrestrial vertebrates on the Coronado National Forest to the potential effects of future climate change. We used a pilot version of a...

Climate change and adaptive water management measures in Chtouka Aït Baha region (Morocco).

PubMed

Seif-Ennasr, Marieme; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Hirich, Abdelaziz; Caroletti, Giulio Nils; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; El Morjani, Zine El Abidine; Beraaouz, El Hassane; McDonnell, Rachael A; Choukr-Allah, Redouane

2016-12-15

This study evaluates the effect on the availability of water resources for agriculture of expected future changes in precipitation and temperature distributions in north-western Africa. It also puts forward some locally derived adaptation strategies to climate change that can have a positive impact on water resources in the Chtouka Aït Baha region. Historical baselines of precipitation and temperature were derived using satellite data respectively from CHIRPS and CRU, while future projections of temperature and precipitation were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment database (CORDEX). Projections were also generated for two future periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Regional climate models and satellite data outputs were evaluated by calculating their bias and RMSE against historical baseline and observed data. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, temperature in the region shows an increase by 2°C for the 2030-2049 time period, and by 4 to 5°C towards the end of the 21st century. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation shows a reduction of 10 to 30% for the period 2030-2049, up to 60% for 2080-2099. Outputs from the climate change projections were used to force the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Simulation results indicate that water deficit at basin level will likely triple towards 2050 due to increase in water demand and decrease in aquifer recharge and dam storage. This alarming situation, in a country that already suffers from water insecurity, emphasizes the need for more efforts to implement climate change adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment of 38 climate change adaptation measures according to several criteria. The evaluation shows that measures affecting the management of water resources have the highest benefit-to-efforts ratio, which indicates that decision makers and stakeholders should increasingly focus their efforts on management measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

2017-12-01

Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

2016-12-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2013-04-01

This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

2016-04-01

In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions and over time is necessary to determine if feedstock production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Panicum virgatum L., a perennial herbaceous grass, is a prom...

Predicting drought in an agricultural watershed given climate variability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in the future hydrologic cycle due to changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) are likely to be associated with increases in hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability on drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Goodwater Creek Expe...

Climatic Change and the Future of the Human Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotlyakov, Vladimir M.

1996-01-01

Evaluates the latest glaciological and oceanological data and demonstrates a strict correlation between global changes of temperature and gas composition of the atmosphere over the last climatic cycle. Concludes that global warming may not create an environmental crisis but will alter drastically the life people lead. (MJP)

Modeling The effect of elevated CO2 and climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the semi-arid Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in evapotranspiration demand due to global warming will have profound impact on irrigation water demand and agricultural productivity. In this study, effects of possible future anthropogenic climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was evaluated. The Penman-Monteith equation was ...

Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P.; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G. W.

2017-01-01

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered. PMID:28898262

Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

2017-01-01

Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the species potential distribution, but also N driven nutrient enrichment may threaten these habitats. We applied a dynamic geochemical soil model (VSD+) together with a novel niche-based plant response model (PROPS) to 5 forest habitat types (18 forest sites) protected under the EU Directive in Austria. We assessed how future climate change and N deposition might affect habitat suitability, defined as the capacity of a site to host its typical plant species. Our evaluation indicates that climate change will be the main driver of a decrease in habitat suitability in the future in Austria. The expected climate change will increase the occurrence of thermophilic plant species while decreasing cold-tolerant species. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change scenarios caused an increase of the occurrence probability of oligotrophic species due to a higher N immobilisation in woody biomass leading to soil N depletion. As a consequence, climate change did offset eutrophication from N deposition, even when no further reduction in N emissions was assumed. Our results show that climate change may have positive side-effects in forest habitats when multiple drivers of change are considered.

Estimating landscape-scale impacts of agricultural management on soil carbon using measurements and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schipanski, M.; Rosenzweig, S. T.; Robertson, A. D.; Sherrod, L. A.; Ghimire, R.; McMaster, G. S.

2017-12-01

Agriculture covers 40% of Earth's ice-free land area and has broad impacts on global biogeochemical cycles. While some agricultural management changes are small in scale or impact, others have the potential to shift biogeochemical cycles at landscape and larger scales if widely adopted. Understanding which management practices have the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation while maintaining productivity requires scaling up estimates spatially and temporally. We used on-farm, long-term, and landscape scale datasets to estimate how crop rotations impact soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation rates under current and future climate scenarios across the semi-arid Central and Southern Great Plains. We used a stratified, landscape-scale soil sampling approach across 96 farm fields to evaluate crop rotation intensity effects on SOC pools and pesticide inputs. Replacing traditional wheat-fallow rotations with more diverse, continuously cropped rotations increased SOC by 17% and 12% in 0-10 cm and 0-20 cm depths, respectively, and reduced herbicide use by 50%. Using USDA Cropland Data Layer, we estimated soil C accumulation and pesticide reduction potentials of shifting to more intensive rotations. We also used a 30-year cropping systems experiment to calibrate and validate the Daycent model to evaluate rotation intensify effects under future climate change scenarios. The model estimated greater SOC accumulation rates under continuously cropped rotations, but SOC stocks peaked and then declined for all cropping systems beyond 2050 under future climate scenarios. Perennial grasslands were the only system estimated to maintain SOC levels in the future. In the Southern High Plains, soil C declined despite increasing input intensity under current weather while modest gains were simulated under future climate for sorghum-based cropping systems. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of semi-arid regions to climate change, which will be compounded by declining groundwater levels along the western edge of the High Plains Aquifer that increase reliance on dryland farming systems. Understanding these challenges provides opportunities to develop future transition and adaptation strategies in partnership with producers, policy makers, and rural communities.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Flitcroft, Rebecca L; Dunham, Jason B.; McNyset, Kristina M.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2015-01-01

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

PubMed

Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

2014-04-09

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Nichols, Gordon L.; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K

2006-01-10

Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiplemore » climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.« less

Future irrigation expansion outweigh groundwater recharge gains from climate change in semi-arid India.

PubMed

Sishodia, Rajendra P; Shukla, Sanjay; Wani, Suhas P; Graham, Wendy D; Jones, James W

2018-09-01

Simultaneous effects of future climate and irrigation intensification on surface and groundwater systems are not well understood. Efforts are needed to understand the future groundwater availability and associated surface flows under business-as-usual management to formulate policy changes to improve water sustainability. We combine measurements with integrated modeling (MIKE SHE/MIKE11) to evaluate the effects of future climate (2040-2069), with and without irrigation expansion, on water levels and flows in an agricultural watershed in low-storage crystalline aquifer region of south India. Demand and supply management changes, including improved efficiency of irrigation water as well as energy uses, were evaluated. Increased future rainfall (7-43%, from 5 Global Climate Models) with no further expansion of irrigation wells increased the groundwater recharge (10-55%); however, most of the recharge moved out of watershed as increased baseflow (17-154%) with a small increase in net recharge (+0.2mm/year). When increased rainfall was considered with projected increase in irrigation withdrawals, both hydrologic extremes of well drying and flooding were predicted. A 100-year flow event was predicted to be a 5-year event in the future. If irrigation expansion follows the historical trends, earlier and more frequent well drying, a source of farmers' distress in India, was predicted to worsen in the future despite the recharge gains from increased rainfall. Storage and use of excess flows, improved irrigation efficiency with flood to drip conversion in 25% of irrigated area, and reduced energy subsidy (free electricity for 3.5h compared to 7h/day; $1 billion savings) provided sufficient water savings to support future expansion in irrigated areas while mitigating well drying as well as flooding. Reductions in energy subsidy to fund the implementation of economically desirable (high benefit-cost ratio) demand (drip irrigation) and supply (water capture and storage) management was recommended to achieve a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in semi-arid regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Anthony W. D' Amato; Christopher W. Swanston; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Stephen Matthews; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jacob S. Fraser; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Diane Burbank; John Campbell; Charles Cogbill; Matthew J. Duveneck; Marla R. Emery; Nicholas Fisichelli; Jane Foster; Jennifer Hushaw; Laura Kenefic; Amanda Mahaffey; Toni Lyn Morelli; Nicholas J. Reo; Paul G. Schaberg; K. Rogers Simmons; Aaron Weiskittel; Sandy Wilmot; David Hollinger; Erin Lane; Lindsey Rustad; Pamela H. Templer

2018-01-01

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information...

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yenan; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Zhu, Feilin; Fu, Jisi

2017-06-01

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960-2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001-2010) and the predicting period (2011-2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

PubMed

West, Amanda M; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

2015-01-01

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

Using High-Resolution Future Climate Scenarios to Forecast Bromus tectorum Invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park

PubMed Central

West, Amanda M.; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

2015-01-01

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum. PMID:25695255

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knist, Sebastian; Goergen, Klaus; Simmer, Clemens

2018-02-01

We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are downscaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realistically compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature-extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling rate of 7% K-1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited conditions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K-1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C-C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

PubMed

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

PubMed Central

Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic ensemble mean and may provide reliable future projections.

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil

PubMed Central

Caetano, Jordana Moura; Tessarolo, Geiziane; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Souza, Kelly da Silva e; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

2018-01-01

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model—ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental). PMID:29381755

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil.

PubMed

Caetano, Jordana Moura; Tessarolo, Geiziane; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Souza, Kelly da Silva E; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Nabout, João Carlos

2018-01-01

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

Estimation of climate change impact on dead fuel moisture at local scale by using weather generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Bortolu, Sara; Dubrovsky, Martin; Arca, Bachisio; Ventura, Andrea; Duce, Pierpaolo

2015-04-01

The moisture content of dead fuel is an important variable in fire ignition and fire propagation. Moisture exchange in dead materials is controlled by physical processes, and is clearly dependent on atmospheric changes. According to projections of future climate in Southern Europe, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events are expected. More prolonged drought seasons could influence fuel moisture content and, consequently, the number of days characterized by high ignition danger in Mediterranean ecosystems. The low resolution of the climate data provided by the general circulation models (GCMs) represents a limitation for evaluating climate change impacts at local scale. For this reason, the climate research community has called to develop appropriate downscaling techniques. One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking a stochastic weather generator with the climate model outputs. Weather generators linked to climate change scenarios can therefore be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation) representing present and future climates at local scale. The main aims of this work are to identify useful tools to determine potential impacts of expected climate change on dead fuel status in Mediterranean shrubland and, in particular, to estimate the effect of climate changes on the number of days characterized by critical values of dead fuel moisture. Measurements of dead fuel moisture content (FMC) in Mediterranean shrubland were performed by using humidity sensors in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for six years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Data were used to determine the accuracy of the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFM code) in modelling moisture dynamics of dead fuel in Mediterranean vegetation. Critical threshold values of FFM code for Mediterranean climate were identified by percentile analysis, and new fuel moisture code classes were also defined. A stochastic weather generator (M&Rfi), linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs), was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Western Sardinia, Italy. The number of days with critical FFM code values for present and future climate were calculated and the potential impact of future climate change was analysed.

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Hao; Ning, Shaowei; Hiroshi, Ishidaira

2018-06-01

Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM). In addition, future leaf area index (LAI) is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC) based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

PubMed

Hamann, Andreas; Roberts, David R; Barber, Quinn E; Carroll, Carlos; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-02-01

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities). © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Treesearch

M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

2011-01-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Barbour, E; Futter, M N; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Caesar, J; Butterfield, D; Jin, L; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Salehin, M

2015-06-01

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socio-economic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Estimation of landslides activities evolution due to land-use and climate change in a Pyrenean valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Bernardie, Séverine; Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Grandjean, Gilles; Thiery, Yannick

2016-04-01

Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated in areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous areas are among these vulnerable territories. Ecological systems are often at a fragile equilibrium, socio-economical activities are often climate-dependent and climate-driven natural hazards can be a major threat for human activities. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys to face global changes (climate, but also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary to be able to evaluate the evolution of the different threats. The present work shows a method to evaluate the influences of the evolution of both vegetation cover and climate on landslides activities over a whole valley until 2100, to propose adequate solutions for current and future forestry management. Firstly, the assessment of future land use is addressed through the construction of four prospective socio-economic scenarios up to 2050 and 2100, which are then spatially validated and modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, the climate change inputs of the project correspond to 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impact of land use and climate change is then addressed through the use of these scenarios into hazards computations. For that we use a large-scale slope stability assessment tool ALICE which combines a mechanical stability model (using finite slope analysis), a vegetation module which interfere with the first model, to take into account the effects of vegetation on the mechanical soil properties (cohesion and over-load), and an hydrogeological model. All these elements are interfaced within a GIS-based solution. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of global change on mountain societies. The whole chain is applied to a 100-km² Pyrenean Valley, for the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), as a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.

The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality: Development of a Spatially Distributed Urban Water Quality Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Baptiste, Marisa

While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution.more » DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 ºC), TSS load (up to 182%), and TP load (up to 74%).« less

TECA: Petascale pattern recognition for climate science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prabhat, .; Byna, Surendra; Vishwanath, Venkatram

Climate Change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. Climate simulations provide us with a unique opportunity to examine effects of anthropogenic emissions. Highresolution climate simulations produce “Big Data”: contemporary climate archives are ≈ 5PB in size and we expect future archives to measure on the order of Exa-Bytes. In this work, we present the successful application of TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) framework, for extracting extreme weather patterns such as Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers and Extra-Tropical Cyclones from TB-sized simulation datasets. TECA has been run at full-scale on Cray XE6 and IBMmore » BG/Q systems, and has reduced the runtime for pattern detection tasks from years to hours. TECA has been utilized to evaluate the performance of various computational models in reproducing the statistics of extreme weather events, and for characterizing the change in frequency of storm systems in the future.« less

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

2015-09-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

PubMed

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

Fun Teaching: The Key to the Future Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulvey, G.

2016-12-01

In general meteorology is a science of immediate impact. What will the weather be tomorrow or next week? Climatology and climate change is the science of our long range past and future. Decisions made in the past, now, and in the future on climate change issues did and will continue to impact the global climate. It is essential that current and future generations understand the causes of climate change to make informed decisions regarding individual and government actions needed to mitigate human impacts on the future climate. The university challenge is make climatology an exciting and dynamic adventure into the past, present and future. Instructor and supporting organizations have stepped outside the "old yellow notes" approach to enable students to progress beyond remember, understand, and apply; to analyze, evaluate and create. Responding to this instructional challenge by shifting instructional techniques and tools to a new paradigm does not happen overnight. The instructional strategies to make this jump are known in general, but not in specific. This paper deals with examples of how to translate the instructional strategies into practice in ways that are fun for students and instructors. Techniques to be described include interactive discussions, debates and team challenges, such as: - Describing continental climates during past geological periods - In-class teams debates on legislature to control/modify human CO2 releases Low or no cost teaching aids such as video clips, demonstrations, specimens, and experiments will be described with outcomes and resources interest. Some examples to be discussed are - Tree cookies, cross sections - Ocean core smear slide samples of diatoms, foraminifera, etc. - Ice pack/glacial melt experiments - Glacial flow and interpreting glacial ice cores experiment - Field trips to observe geological strata and geological samples - Storytelling - the shared experiences of each instructor

The Future of Water Security in Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo Through Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gesualdo, G. C.; Oliveira, P. T. S.; Rodrigues, D. B. B.

2017-12-01

Achieving a balance between water availability and demand is one of the most pressing environmental challenges in the twenty-first century. This challenge is exacerbated by, climate change, which has already affected the water balance of landscapes globally by intensifying runoff, reducing snowpacks, and shifting precipitation regimes. Understanding these changes is crucial to identifying future water availability and developing sustainable management plans, especially in developing countries. Here, we address the developing country water balance challenge by assessing the influence of climate change on the water availability in the Jaguari basin, Southeastern Brazil. The Jaguari basin is one of the main sources of freshwater for 9 million people in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. This region represents about 7% of the Brazil's Gross Domestic Product. The critical importance of the water balance challenge in this area has been highlighted recently when a major drought in southeastern Brazil revealed the vulnerability of current water management systems. Still today, the per capita water availability in the region remains severely limited. To help address this water balance challenge, we use a modeling approach to predict future water vulnerabilities of this region under different climate scenarios. Here, we calibrated and validated a lumped conceptual model using HYMOD to evaluate future scenarios using downscaled climate models resulting from HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 GCMs forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We also present future directions which include bias correction from long-term weather station data and an empirical uncertainty assessment. Our results provide an important overview of climate change impacts on streamflow and future water availability in the Jaguari basin, which can be used to guide the basin`s water security plans and strategies.

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

PubMed

Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

2015-01-01

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

2015-01-01

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality. PMID:26267446

Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

2013-09-01

Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

Managing for delicious ecosystem service under climate change: can United States sugar maple (Acer saccharum) syrup production be maintained in a warming climate?

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson

2017-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is a highly valued tree in United States (US) and Canada, and its sap when collected from taps and concentrated, makes a delicious syrup. Understanding how this resource may be impacted by climate change and other threats is essential to continue management for maple syrup into the future. Here, we evaluate the current...

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shanlei; Sun, Ge; Cohen, Erika; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Duan, Kai; Zhang, Yang

2016-03-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and ecosystem adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) using dynamically downscaled climate data of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the coterminous US (CONUS). Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8° C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 gC m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. We found a large spatial variability in response to climate change across the CONUS 12-digit HUC watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases all variables evaluated. Over half of the watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest, would see an increase in annual Q (> 100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). In addition, we also evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or two-digit HUCs. The study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results may be useful for policy-makers and land managers to formulate appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

Kuiper Prize Lecture - Present and past climates of the terrestrial planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, James B.

1991-01-01

An evaluation is undertaken of the current understanding of factors shaping the current climates of Venus, Mars, and the earth, in conjunction with the ways in which these planetary climates may have been different in the past. Attention is given to modeling approaches of various levels of sophistication which both characterize current climates and elucidate prior climatic epochs; these are assessed in light of observational data in order to judge degrees of success thus far and formulate major remaining questions for future investigations. Venus is noted to offer excellent opportunities for modeling the greenhouse effect.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice sheet volume). Continual surrogate refinement guarantees asymptotic sampling from the predictive distribution. Directly characterizing the predictive distribution in this way allows us to assess the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate variability and change.

Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

2010-05-01

Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river basin (Basque Country, North of Spain). So that adaptation strategies can be defined. In order to fulfil this objective four subobjectives are defined: (1)selection of the future climate projections for the case study area from a wide spectrum of possibilities; (2) model the hydrological processes of the basin with a physically distributed complex hydrological model; (3) validation of the hydrological model with observation data; and (4) runoff simulation introducing regional climate model data selected. The analysis of climate models suggests that extreme precipitation in the Basque Country increased by about 10% during the twenty-first century. This increase of extreme precipitations raised discharge and water level in Nerbioi river basin. That is why in the 21st century it is expected that the flood-prone area will expand for precipitation with a return period of 50 years. In this context, it is necessary to define and evaluate different adaptation options which are already in practice or conceivable according to the current scientific knowledge. As well as evaluate the adaptation measures in terms of their ability to lower the vulnerability of water resources to climate change. For example, land use change could be a useful tool to adapt our basin systems. The land use plays an important role on the water balance of a river by varying the proportion of precipitation that runs off and the fraction that is lost by evapotranspiration. Therefore, both climate change and adaptation strategies will have an impact on the hydrodynamic conditions of rivers; particularly the changes in flow conditions will have a severe ecological, economical and social impact. As future work, adaptation measures will introduce in the future runoff simulation in order to evaluate the effectiveness and as a decision-making tool to operational organisations.

RIPARIAN SHADE CONTROLS ON STREAM TEMPERATURE NOW AND IN THE FUTURE ACROSS TRIBUTARIES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Future climates may warm stream temperatures altering aquatic communities and threatening socioeconomically-important species. These impacts will vary across large spatial extents and require special evaluation tools. Statistical stream network models (SSNs) account for spatial a...

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

Insensitivity of evapotranspiration to seasonal rainfall distribution directs climate change impacts at water yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, N.; Oren, R.

2017-12-01

Over the past century, climate change is affecting precipitation regimes across the world. In the Mediterranean regions there is a persistent trend of precipitation and runoff decreases, generating a desertification process. Given the past winter precipitation shifts, the impacts on evapotranspiration (ET) need to be carefully evaluated, and the compelling question is what will be the impact of future climate change scenarios (predicting changes of precipitation and vapor pressure deficit, VPD) on evapotranspiration and water yield? Looking for the key elements of the climate change that are impacting annual ET, we investigate main climate conditions (e.g. precipitation and VPD) and basin physiographic properties contributing to annual ET. We propose a simplified model for annual ET predictions that accounts for the strong meteo seasonality typical of Mediterranean climates, using the steady state assumption of the basin water balance at mean annual scale. We investigate the Sardinia case study because the position of the island of Sardinia in the center of the western Mediterranean Sea basin and its low urbanization and human activity make Sardinia a perfect reference laboratory for Mediterranean hydrologic studies. Sardinian runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period, and most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The use of our proposed model allows to predict future ET and water yield using future climate scenarios. We use the future climate scenarios predicted by Global climate models (GCM) in the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and we select most reliable models testing the past GCM predictions with historical data. Contrasting shifts of precipitation (both positive and negative) are predicted in the future scenarios by GCMs but these changes will produce significant changes (level of significance > 90%) only in runoff and not in ET. Surprisingly, we show that ET is insensitive to intra-annual rainfall distribution changes, and is insensitive to VPD scenario changes.

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

Evaluating Programs That Promote Climate and Energy Education-Meeting Teacher Needs for Online Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynds, S. E.; Buhr, S. M.

2011-12-01

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Pathway, is a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project that was begun in 2010. The main goal of CLEAN is to generate a reviewed collection of educational resources that are aligned with the Essential Principles of Climate Science (EPCS). Another goal of the project is to support a community that will assist students, teachers, and citizens in climate literacy. A complementary program begun in 2010 is the ICEE (Inspiring Climate Education Excellence) program, which is developing online modules and courses designed around the climate literacy principles for use by teachers and other interested citizens. In these projects, we learn about teacher needs through a variety of evaluation mechanisms. The programs use evaluation to assist in the process of providing easy access to high quality climate and energy learning resources that meet classroom requirements. The internal evaluation of the CLEAN program is multidimensional. At the CLEAN resource review camps, teachers and scientists work together in small groups to assess the value of online resources for use in the classroom. The review camps are evaluated using observation and feedback surveys; the resulting evaluation reports provide information to managers to fine-tune future camps. In this way, a model for effective climate resource development meetings has been refined. Evaluation methods used in ICEE and CLEAN include teacher needs assessment surveys, teacher feedback at professional development opportunities, scientist feedback at resource review workshops, and regular analysis of online usage of resources, forums, and education modules. This paper will review the most successful strategies for evaluating the effectiveness of online climate and energy education resources and their use by educators and the general public.

Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.

2014-06-01

Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) aremore » found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.« less

Evaluation of skill at simulating heatwave and heat-humidity indices in Global and Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldie, J. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Lewis, S. C.; Sherwood, S. C.

2017-12-01

A wide body of literature now establishes the harm of extreme heat on human health, and work is now emerging on the projection of future health impacts. However, heat-health relationships vary across different populations (Gasparrini et al. 2015), so accurate simulation of regional climate is an important component of joint health impact projection. Here, we evaluate the ability of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and the NARCliM Regional Climate Model to reproduce a selection of 15 health-relevant heatwave and heat-humidity indices over the historical period (1990-2005) using the Perkins skill score (Perkins et al. 2007) in five Australian cities. We explore the reasons for poor model skill, comparing these modelled distributions to both weather station observations and gridded reanalysis data. Finally, we show changes in the modelled distributions from the highest-performing models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and discuss the implications of simulated heat stress for future climate change adaptation. ReferencesGasparrini, Antonio, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, et al. "Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study." The Lancet 386, no. 9991 (July 31, 2015): 369-75. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356-76. doi:10.1175/JCLI4253.1.

Evaluating the uncertainty of predicting future climate time series at the hourly time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2011-12-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology is developed to generate hourly, point-scale time series for several meteorological variables, such as precipitation, cloud cover, shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The methodology uses multi-model General Circulation Model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, AWE-GEN. Probabilistic descriptions of factors of change (a measure of climate change with respect to historic conditions) are computed for several climate statistics and different aggregation times using a Bayesian approach that weights the individual GCM contributions. The Monte Carlo method is applied to sample the factors of change from their respective distributions thereby permitting the generation of time series in an ensemble fashion, which reflects the uncertainty of climate projections of future as well as the uncertainty of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology and probabilistic expressions of certainty in reproducing future climates for the periods, 2000 - 2009, 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100, using the 1962 - 1992 period as the baseline, are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The climate predictions for the period of 2000 - 2009 are tested against observations permitting to assess the reliability and uncertainties of the methodology in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of climate change effects on the hydrology of a medium-sized Mediterranean basin affected by data sparseness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2014-05-01

Many studies based on global and regional climate models agree on the prediction that the Mediterranean area will be most likely affected by climate changes with consequent reduced water availability and intensified hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the effects of climate changes on the hydrologic response of a medium-sized Mediterranean basin through downscaling techniques and hydrologic simulations. The watershed is the Rio Mannu at Monastir basin (473 km2), located in an agricultural area of southern Sardinia, Italy, which has suffered drought issues in the last decades. It is one of the seven study cases of a multidisciplinary European research project, CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins). In such basins, characterized by strong climate variability and by a complex hydrologic response, process based distributed hydrologic models, DHMs, combined with regional climate models, RCMs, and downscaling techniques can help in the evaluation of the local impacts of climate change on water resources decreasing the uncertainty. Since the Rio Mannu basin is affected by data sparseness (meteorological and streamflow data are collected in non overlapping time periods and at diverse time resolutions), two statistical downscaling strategies for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have been designed which allow to obtain the high-resolution input data required for the calibration of our hydrologic model, the TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). We show how the DHM has been calibrated and validated with reasonable accuracy using the disaggregation tools. Next, the same downscaling algorithms have been used to fill the resolution discrepancy between RCMs and the hydrologic model. The outputs of four RCMs, selected as the best performing and bias corrected within the CLIMB project, have been downscaled and used to force the tRIBS during a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period. Several hydro-climatic indicators have been computed based on the time series and spatial maps produced by the DHM to assess the variation in Rio Mannu water resources budget and hydrologic extremes in the future period as compared to the reference one. Our results confirms what is generally predicted for the Mediterranean area, showing a basin future condition of more water shortages due to both reduced precipitations and increased temperatures.

Decadal application of WRF/chem for regional air quality and climate modeling over the U.S. under the representative concentration pathways scenarios. Part 2: Current vs. future simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, Khairunnisa; Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang

2017-03-01

Following a comprehensive model evaluation, this Part II paper presents projected changes in future (2046-2055) climate, air quality, and their interactions under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using the Weather, Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem). In general, both WRF/Chem RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar increases on average (∼2 °C) for 2-m temperature (T2) but different spatial distributions of the projected changes in T2, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, precipitation, and planetary boundary layer height, due to differences in the spatial distributions of projected emissions, and their feedbacks into climate. Future O3 mixing ratios will decrease for most parts of the U.S. under the RCP4.5 scenario but increase for all areas under the RCP8.5 scenario due to higher projected temperature, greenhouse gas concentrations and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, higher O3 values for boundary conditions, and disbenefit of NOx reduction and decreased NO titration over VOC-limited O3 chemistry regions. Future PM2.5 concentrations will decrease for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with different trends in projected concentrations of individual PM species. Total cloud amounts decrease under both scenarios in the future due to decreases in PM and cloud droplet number concentration thus increased radiation. Those results illustrate the impacts of carbon policies with different degrees of emission reductions on future climate and air quality. The WRF/Chem and WRF simulations show different spatial patterns for projected changes in T2 for future decade, indicating different impacts of prognostic and prescribed gas/aerosol concentrations, respectively, on climate change.

Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Z.

2015-12-01

Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

A Multivariate and Probabilistic Assessment of Drought in the Pacific Northwest under Observed and Future Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y. K.

2015-12-01

In lieu with the recent and anticipated more server and frequently droughts incidences in Yakima River Basin (YRB), a reliable and comprehensive drought assessment is deemed necessary to avoid major crop production loss and better manage the water right issues in the region during low precipitation and/or snow accumulation years. In this study, we have conducted frequency analysis of hydrological droughts and quantified associated uncertainty in the YRB under both historical and changing climate. Streamflow drought index (SDI) was employed to identify mutually correlated drought characteristics (e.g., severity, duration and peak). The historical and future characteristics of drought were estimated by applying tri-variate copulas probability distribution, which effectively describe the joint distribution and dependence of drought severity, duration, and peak. The associated prediction uncertainty, related to parameters of the joint probability and climate projections, were evaluated using the Bayesian approach with bootstrap resampling. For the climate change scenarios, two future representative pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from University of Idaho's Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) database were considered. The results from the study are expected to provide useful information towards drought risk management in YRB under anticipated climate changes.

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

Using citizen science data to model the distributions of common songbirds of Turkey under different global climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H; Bilgin, Raşit

2013-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey's songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey's songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

Evaluations of alternative methods for monitoring and estimating responses of salmon productivity in the North Pacific to future climatic change and other processes: A simulation study

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of the relative influence of climate change, compared to other human activities, on dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations can help management agencies take appropriate management actions. We used empirically based simulation modelling of 48 sockeye...

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Vegetation dynamics associated with changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate in hardwood forests of Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, USA.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Bell, M; Clark, C; Blett, T; Evans, T; Cass, W; Hyduke, A; Sverdrup, H

2018-06-01

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colmet-Daage, Antoine; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Ricci, Sophie; Llovel, Cécile; Borrell Estupina, Valérie; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Servat, Eric

2018-01-01

The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981-2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Water2Invest: Global facility for calculating investments needed to bridge the climate-induced water gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jairus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Meijer, Karen; van Aalst, Maaike; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Decision makers responsible for climate change adaptation investments are confronted with large uncertainties regarding future water availability and water demand, as well as the investment cost required to reduce the water gap. Moreover, scientists have worked hard to increase fundamental knowledge on climate change and its impacts (climate services), while practical use of this knowledge is limited due to a lack of tools for decision support under uncertain long term future scenarios (decision services). The Water2Invest project aims are to (i) assess the joint impact of climate change and socioeconomic change on water scarcity, (ii) integrate impact and potential adaptation in one flow, (iii) prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. Global water availability is computed between 2006 and 2100 using the PCR-GLOBWB water resources model at a 6 minute spatial resolution. Climate change scenarios are based on the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that defines four CO2 emission scenarios as representative concentration pathways. Water demand is computed for agriculture, industry, domestic, and environmental requirements based on socio-economic scenarios of increase in population and gross domestic product. Using a linear programming algorithm, water is allocated on a monthly basis over the four sectors. Based on these assessments, the user can evaluate various technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socioeconomic effects of these investments are evaluated, such as environmental flows or downstream effects. A scheme is developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty, and each measure is linked to possibilities for investment and financing mechanisms. The tool can be used by consultants, water authorities, non-governmental and commercial investors alike to test investment strategies, but could also be used by companies as a vehicle for advertisement water saving or crop water productivity technologies that can be evaluated on their effectiveness on the spot. We show initial results based on a preliminary study on the Middle East and North African region.

Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

2010-12-01

In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat is also predicted throughout the region. Results have direct application to management issues of habitat connectivity, forest land protection and acquisition, and active management solutions such as transplanting or assisted migration. Although this analysis considers only one driver of forest habitat distribution, consideration of hydrologic derivatives at a fine scale explains current forest community distributions and provides a far more informed perspective on potential future forest distributions. Results demonstrate the utility of fine-scale modeling and provide landscape managers and conservation agencies valuable management tools in fine-scale future forest scenarios and a framework for evaluating forest resiliency in a changing climate.

AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Collins, William J.; Lamarque, Jean -François; Schulz, Michael; ...

2017-02-09

The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and theirmore » climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. As a result, specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.« less

AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, William J.; Lamarque, Jean -François; Schulz, Michael

The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and theirmore » climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. As a result, specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.« less

Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

2014-07-01

The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

Paddy rice productivity under climate and land-use change in northern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, R.; Fukui, S.; Shimada, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Iwasaki, T.

2013-12-01

An evaluation of the best rice cultivar under climate change is an important issue because the projected climate change has a potential to bring a negative impact on crop yield. In this study, we estimate an impact of climate change on rice yield and potential best cultivar in northern Japan where the larger paddy field is located than other regions in Japan. Two global climate model data, MIROC5 (RCP 4.5) and MRI-AGCM (SRES A1B), are applied as the future scenario. These data are too coarse to resolve the regional differences in northern Japan; we conduct the downscale experiments by a regional climate model (JMA-NHM) with a 10-km grid spacing. Considering that rice yield is sensitive to warm season climate, we conduct the downscaling from 28th May to 1st September during 1981-2000 and 2081-2099. The biases of downscaled two scenarios are corrected to match their cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of present climate with that of the station-based observation. The derived CDF-based biases are also used to correct the future scenarios. These corrected scenarios are applied to rice growth model (NIAES-Rice). To take account for the impacts of land use change (LUC) on climate and rice yield, we consider the additional temperature changes due to the LUC. As a reference, we add the LUC-induced temperature change in southwest Japan because the data are available from the previous study. We first check the climate change in northern Japan. General tendencies derived from the bias-corrected-downscaled future climates are that 1) surface warming was approximately twice in low elevation area relative to mountainous area and 2) downward shortwave radiation homogeneously increased 7-8 W m-2. Then, we evaluated the simulated yield through comparing with observation. Using observed ambient conditions as input data, the NIAES-Rice model provides the reasonable performance in simulating the rice yield with biases ranging from -19.0 to 29.2 % in prefecture base. Climate changes enhance the rice yield for 'Koshihikari' from 372.4 to 388.1 g/10a. The cultivar is planted in half of prefectures in Japan. For each analysis grid, we chose the cultivar that held the largest yield among the 10 analyzed cultivars and found that the location of cultivar that achieves the largest yields shifted northward in future climate. Also, the grids that cultivar developed in central Japan become the largest yield among 10 cultivars increase more than triple in the future climate. A LUC-induced temperature impact on prefecture-based yield corresponds to about 18 % of the climate-change-induced yield change, ranging from 0.6 to 33.5 % for six prefectures in the analyzed area. There is unclear tendency between the present rice yield amount and the intensity of LUC impact. However, surface warming due to urbanization decrease the rice yield in all six prefectures. Thus land use management and planting cultivar change are essential for stable food security.

Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

2017-07-01

This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

Trapped between two tails: trading off scientific uncertainties via climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, Derek; McJeon, Haewon C.

2013-09-01

Climate change policies must trade off uncertainties about future warming, about the social and ecological impacts of warming, and about the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We show that laxer carbon targets produce broader distributions for climate damages, skewed towards severe outcomes. However, if potential low-carbon technologies fill overlapping niches, then more stringent carbon targets produce broader distributions for the cost of reducing emissions, skewed towards high-cost outcomes. We use the technology-rich GCAM integrated assessment model to assess the robustness of 450 and 500 ppm carbon targets to each uncertain factor. The 500 ppm target provides net benefits across a broad range of futures. The 450 ppm target provides net benefits only when impacts are greater than conventionally assumed, when multiple technological breakthroughs lower the cost of abatement, or when evaluated with a low discount rate. Policy evaluations are more sensitive to uncertainty about abatement technology and impacts than to uncertainty about warming.

Trapped Between Two Tails: Trading Off Scientific Uncertainties via Climate Targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemoine, Derek M.; McJeon, Haewon C.

2013-08-20

Climate change policies must trade off uncertainties about future warming, about the social and ecological impacts of warming, and about the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We show that laxer carbon targets produce broader distributions for climate damages, skewed towards severe outcomes. However, if potential low-carbon technologies fill overlapping niches, then more stringent carbon targets produce broader distributions for the cost of reducing emissions, skewed towards high-cost outcomes. We use the technology- rich GCAM integrated assessment model to assess the robustness of 450 ppm and 500 ppm carbon targets to each uncertain factor. The 500 ppm target provides netmore » benefits across a broad range of futures. The 450 ppm target provides net benefits only when impacts are greater than conventionally assumed, when multiple technological breakthroughs lower the cost of abatement, or when evaluated with a low discount rate. Policy evaluations are more sensitive to uncertainty about abatement technology and impacts than to uncertainty about warming.« less

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

Mathematics applied to the climate system: outstanding challenges and recent progress

PubMed Central

Williams, Paul D.; Cullen, Michael J. P.; Davey, Michael K.; Huthnance, John M.

2013-01-01

The societal need for reliable climate predictions and a proper assessment of their uncertainties is pressing. Uncertainties arise not only from initial conditions and forcing scenarios, but also from model formulation. Here, we identify and document three broad classes of problems, each representing what we regard to be an outstanding challenge in the area of mathematics applied to the climate system. First, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of simple physically based models of the global climate. Second, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of the components of complex models such as general circulation models. Third, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of appropriate statistical frameworks. We discuss these problems in turn, emphasizing the recent progress made by the papers presented in this Theme Issue. Many pressing challenges in climate science require closer collaboration between climate scientists, mathematicians and statisticians. We hope the papers contained in this Theme Issue will act as inspiration for such collaborations and for setting future research directions. PMID:23588054

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; ...

2017-10-30

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

2013-04-01

The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European national road administrations regarding possible future climate change impacts. First project results are presented at the conference.

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Forest Ecosystem in Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozcan, O.; Musaoglu, N.; Türkeş, M.

2017-12-01

The concept of `climate change vulnerability' helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. Herein, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. Thus, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem are based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a "very low" vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as "very low" account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as "low" account for 36%, those classed as "medium" account for 20%, and those classed as "high" account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience formore » the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers.

PubMed

Avise, Jeremy; Abraham, Rodrigo Gonzalez; Chung, Serena H; Chen, Jack; Lamb, Brian; Salathé, Eric P; Zhang, Yongxin; Nolte, Christopher G; Loughlin, Daniel H; Guenther, Alex; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Duhl, Tiffany

2012-09-01

The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of climate change on ozone. The findings of this work suggest that in some geographic regions, climate change has the potential to negate decreases in surface ozone concentrations that would otherwise be achieved through ozone mitigation strategies. In regions of high biogenic VOC emissions relative to anthropogenic NO(x) emissions, the impact of climate change is somewhat reduced, while the opposite is true in regions of high anthropogenic NO(x) emissions relative to biogenic VOC emissions. Further, different future climate realizations are shown to impact ozone in different ways.

An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

2003-12-01

Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

2018-03-23

Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

Towards the next generation of climate change assessment: learning from past experiences to inform a sustainable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, K. J.; Field, C. B.

2017-12-01

Over decades, assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many others has bolstered understanding of the climate problem: unequivocal warming, pervasive impacts, and serious risks from continued high emissions of heat-trapping gases. Societies are increasingly responding with early actions to decarbonize energy systems and prepare for impacts. This emerging era of climate solutions creates a need for new approaches to assessment that emphasize learning from ongoing real-world experiences and that help close the gap between aspirations and the pace of progress. Against this backdrop, the presentation will take stock of recent advances and challenges in assessment, especially drawing from analysis of climate change assessment. Four assessment priorities will be considered: (1) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results, (2) applying rigorous expert judgment in evaluating knowledge and uncertainties, (3) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (4) incorporating interactions among experts and decision-makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, the presentation will critique both opportunities and pitfalls, outlining possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. It will evaluate, in particular, lessons from risk-based approaches; strategies for transparently acknowledging persistent uncertainties and contested priorities; ways to minimize biases and foster creativity in expert judgments; scenario-based assessment of surprises, deep uncertainties, and decision-making implications; and opportunities for broadening the conception of expertise and engaging different decision-makers and stakeholders. Overall, these approaches can advance assessment products and processes as a basis for sustained dialogue supporting decision-making.

From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

2014-12-01

Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

Future impacts of nitrogen deposition and climate change scenarios on forest crown defoliation.

PubMed

De Marco, Alessandra; Proietti, Chiara; Cionni, Irene; Fischer, Richard; Screpanti, Augusto; Vitale, Marcello

2014-11-01

Defoliation is an indicator for forest health in response to several stressors including air pollutants, and one of the most important parameters monitored in the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The study aims to estimate crown defoliation in 2030, under three climate and one nitrogen deposition scenarios, based on evaluation of the most important factors (meteorological, nitrogen deposition and chemical soil parameters) affecting defoliation of twelve European tree species. The combination of favourable climate and nitrogen fertilization in the more adaptive species induces a generalized decrease of defoliation. On the other hand, severe climate change and drought are main causes of increase in defoliation in Quercus ilex and Fagus sylvatica, especially in Mediterranean area. Our results provide information on regional distribution of future defoliation, an important knowledge for identifying policies to counteract negative impacts of climate change and air pollution. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive management of irrigation and crops' biodiversity: a case study on tomato

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, Francesca; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Monaco, Eugenia; Riccardi, Maria; Menenti, Massimo

2013-04-01

We have assessed the impacts of climate change and evaluated options to adapt irrigation management in the face of predicted changes of agricultural water demand. We have evaluated irrigation scheduling and its effectiveness (versus crop transpiration), and cultivars' adaptability. The spatial and temporal variations of effectiveness and adaptability were studied in an irrigated district of Southern Italy. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. The work was carried out in the Destra Sele irrigation scheme (18.000 ha. Twenty-five soil units were identified and their hydrological properties were determined (measured or estimated from texture through pedo-transfer functions). A tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, was considered. A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was used to study crop water requirements and water consumption. The model was calibrated and validated in the same area for many different crops. Tomato crop input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. Simulations were performed for reference and future climate, and for different irrigation scheduling options. In all soil units, six levels of irrigation volumes were applied: full irrigation (100%), deficit irrigation (80%, 60%, 40%, 20%), no irrigation. From simulation runs, indicators of soil water availability were calculated, moreover the marginal increases of transpiration per unit of irrigation volume, i.e. the effectiveness of irrigation (ΔT/I), were computed, in both climate scenarios. Indicators and marginal increases were used to evaluate the tomato crop adaptability to future climate. To this purpose, for several tomato cultivars, threshold values of their yield responses to soil water availability were determined (data from scientific literature). Cultivars' threshold values were evaluated, in all soil units, against the indicators' values, for irrigation levels with different ΔT/I. Less water intensive cultivars and irrigation volumes that optimize transpiration (and yield) could thus be identified in both climate scenarios, and irrigation management scenarios were determined taking into account soils' hydrological properties, crop biodiversity, and efficient use of water resource. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, adaptation, simulation models, deficit irrigation, water resource efficiency, SWAP

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2016-04-01

In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

PubMed Central

Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

Do we know how to reconcile preservation of landscapes with adaptation of agriculture to climate change? A case-study in a hilly area in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menenti, Massimo; Alfieri, Silvia; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Monaco, Eugenia; Riccardi, Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Limited impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are unlikely to induce any significant changes in current landscapes. Larger impacts, unacceptable on economic or social ground, are likely to trigger interventions towards adaptation of agricultural production systems by reducing or removing vulnerabilities to climate variability and change. Such interventions may require a transition to a different production system, i.e. complete substitution of current crops, or displacement of current crops at their current location towards other locations, e.g. at higher elevations within the landscape. We have assessed the impacts of climate change and evaluated options for adaptation of a valley in Southern Italy, dominated by vine and olive orchards with a significant presence of wheat. We have first estimated the climatic requirements of several varieties for each dominant species. Next, to identify options for adaptation we have evaluated the compatibility of such requirements with indicators of a reference (current) climate and of future climate. This climate - compatibility assessment was done for each soil unit within the valley, leading to maps of locations where each crop is expected to be compatible with climate. This leads to identify both potential crop substitutions within the entire valley and crop displacements from one location to another within the valley. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. We evaluated the adaptive capacity of the "Valle Telesina" (Campania Region, Southern Italy). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate for each soil unit. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of local experiments and of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. Time series of MODIS TIR data were used to downscale gridded climate data on air temperature for both the reference and the future climate. The results indicate that no complete crop substitution will be required within this time frame, i.e. the Valle Telesina will preserve its typical landscape features of a vine - olive orchards dominated production system, typical of many regions in Mediterranean Europe. On the other hand very significant crop displacements will be necessary to grow each variety under optimal hydrothermal conditions, from the point of view of both quantity and quality of yield. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

2017-09-01

The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Modeling Pacific Northwest carbon and water cycling using CARAIB Dynamic Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Kim, J. B.; Still, C. J.; Francois, L. M.; Jiang, Y.

2015-12-01

While uncertainties remain regarding projected temperature and precipitation changes, climate warming is already affecting ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Decrease in ecosystem productivity as well as increase in mortality of some plant species induced by drought and disturbance have been reported. Here, we applied the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB to PNW to simulate the response of water and carbon cycling to current and future climate change projections. The vegetation model has already been successfully applied to Europe to simulate plant physiological response to climate change. We calibrated CARAIB to PNW using global Plant Functional Types. For calibration, the model is driven with the gridded surface meteorological dataset UIdaho MACA METDATA with 1/24-degree (~4-km) resolution at a daily time step for the period 1979-2014. The model ability to reproduce the current spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks and fluxes was evaluated using a variety of available datasets, including eddy covariance and satellite observations. We focused particularly on past severe drought and fire episodes. Then, we simulated future conditions using the UIdaho MACAv2-METDATA dataset, which includes downscaled CMIP5 projections from 28 GCMs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We evaluated the future ecosystem carbon balance resulting from changes in drought frequency as well as in fire risk. We also simulated future productivity and drought-induced mortality of several key PNW tree species.

Scenarios of land use change for agriculture: the role of Land Evaluation in improving model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Santini, M.; Dettori, G.; Muresu, P.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2009-12-01

Integrated scenarios of future climate and land use represent a useful input for impact studies about global changes. In particular, improving future land use simulations is essential for the agricultural sector, which is influenced by both biogeophysical constraints and human needs. Often land use change models are mainly based on statistical relationships between known land use distribution and biophysical or socio-economic factors, neglecting the necessary consideration of physical constraints that interact in making lands more or less capable for agriculture and suitable for supporting specific crops. In this study, a well developed land use change model (CLUE@CMCC) was suited for the Mediterranean basin case study, focusing on croplands. Several climate scenarios and future demands for croplands were combined to drive the model, while the same climate scenarios were used to more reliably allocate crops in the most suitable areas on the basis of Land Evaluation techniques. The probability for each map unit to sustain a specific crop, usually related to location characteristics, elasticity to conversion and competition among land use types, now includes specific crop-favoring location characteristics. Results, besides improving the consistency of the land use change model to allocate land for the future, can have the main feedback to suggest feasibility or reasonable thresholds to adjust land use demands during dynamic simulations.

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory

2017-01-01

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

PubMed

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews

2008-01-01

We evaluated 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change, and summarized those responses for nine northeastern United States. We modeled and mapped each species individually and show current and potential future distributions for two emission scenarios (A1fi [higher emission] and B1 [lower emission]) and...

USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

2016-12-01

One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Guyla I.; Susskind, Joel

2007-01-01

Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much further into the future.

Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2018-01-01

This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

Response Variability across Diverse Rice Accessions under Rising Temperature and Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evaluating variability of rice response to concurrent increases in CO2 and temperature forecasted for future climates is a prerequisite step towards characterizing the genetic architecture underlying this response. Expanding on previous single cultivar studies, we evaluated eleven biogeographically ...

Modeling historic variation and its application for understanding future variability (section 3)

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane

2012-01-01

Although some may doubt its usefulness in a future with rapidly changing climates, exotic introductions, and increased human land use, the historical range of variation (HRV) of ecological landscape characteristics provides a relatively useful reference point for evaluating the impacts of landmanagement activities. Unfortunately, comprehensive spatial and temporal data...

When and What Meteorological Stresses Will Maize Crops Meet in the future in France?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify overall climatic conditions and therefore, suitability for cropping. Assessment of when and what meteorological stresses will crops meet in the future is highly useful for planners and land managers who can apply adaptation strategies to improve agricultural potentialities. We propose to evaluate the impacts of climate change on suitability for maize cropping in terms of ecophysiology (e.g., heat stress during grain filling), yield quality (e.g., thermal conditions on protein content) and cultural practices performance (e.g., days available for harvest according to risk of waterlogged soil compaction) in two French areas. The Midi-Pyrénées (southern) and Ile-de-France (northern) regions were chosen as representing the two distinct climates when dividing France into southern and northern parts. The Midi-Pyrénées region is a major irrigated maize producer but could become penalizing in the future because of heat and water stress. By contrast, northern France could become a more suitable area thanks to the expected increasing temperature. To confirm our assumptions, we used the method assessment for crop-climate suitability developed in Caubel et al. (2015) and based on the sub-annual analysis of agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate ARPEGE at the meso-scale SAFRAN (8 km resolution) for the two areas and forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario (similar to RCP 6.0). The evaluation was done for two distinct varieties in terms of precocity. Agroclimatic indicators characterizing water deficit and water excess impacts on crop were calculated for three soils with contrasting soil water reserves and depths. Finally, the evaluation was performed with a unique sowing date (the current one), and with an optimized sowing date according to water and thermal requirements for emergence. Consequences on phenology and therefore meteorological stresses enabled to decide where and when adapting the sowing date will be useful for improving maize potentiality. This work is carried out under the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France).

Implementation of BMP Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change and Land Use Change in a Pasture-Dominated Watershed

PubMed Central

Chiang, Li-Chi; Chaubey, Indrajeet; Hong, Nien-Ming; Lin, Yu-Pin; Huang, Tao

2012-01-01

Implementing a suite of best management practices (BMPs) can reduce non-point source (NPS) pollutants from various land use activities. Watershed models are generally used to evaluate the effectiveness of BMP performance in improving water quality as the basis for watershed management recommendations. This study evaluates 171 management practice combinations that incorporate nutrient management, vegetated filter strips (VFS) and grazing management for their performances in improving water quality in a pasture-dominated watershed with dynamic land use changes during 1992–2007 by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). These selected BMPs were further examined with future climate conditions (2010–2069) downscaled from three general circulation models (GCMs) for understanding how climate change may impact BMP performance. Simulation results indicate that total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) losses increase with increasing litter application rates. Alum-treated litter applications resulted in greater TN losses, and fewer TP losses than the losses from untreated poultry litter applications. For the same litter application rates, sediment and TP losses are greater for summer applications than fall and spring applications, while TN losses are greater for fall applications. Overgrazing management resulted in the greatest sediment and phosphorus losses, and VFS is the most influential management practice in reducing pollutant losses. Simulations also indicate that climate change impacts TSS losses the most, resulting in a larger magnitude of TSS losses. However, the performance of selected BMPs in reducing TN and TP losses was more stable in future climate change conditions than in the BMP performance in the historical climate condition. We recommend that selection of BMPs to reduce TSS losses should be a priority concern when multiple uses of BMPs that benefit nutrient reductions are considered in a watershed. Therefore, the BMP combination of spring litter application, optimum grazing management and filter strip with a VFS ratio of 42 could be a promising alternative for use in mitigating future climate change. PMID:23202767

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Like many other high elevation alpine tree species, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. To evaluate its potential vulnerability to shifts in climate, we defined the suitable climate space for each of four genetic lineages of bristlecone pine and for other subalpine tree species in close proximity to bristlecone pine forests. Measuring changes in the suitable climate space for lineage groups is an important step beyond models that assume species are genetically homogenous. The suitable climate space for bristlecone pine in the year 2090 is projected to decline by 74% and the proportional distribution of suitable climate space for genetic lineages shifts toward those associated with warmer and wetter conditions. The 2090 climate space for bristlecone pine exhibits a bimodal distribution along an elevation gradient, presumably due to the persistence of the climate space in the Southern Rocky Mountains and exclusion at mid-elevations by conditions that favor the climate space of other species. These shifts have implications for changes in fire regimes, vulnerability to pest and pathogens, and altered carbon dynamics across the southern Rockies, which may reduce the likelihood of bristlecone pine trees achieving exceptional longevity in the future. The persistence and expansion of climate space for southern bristlecone pine genetic lineage groups in 2090 suggests that these sources may be the least vulnerable in the future. While these lineages may be more likely to persist and therefore present opportunities for proactive management (e.g., assisted migration) to maintain subalpine forest ecosystem services in a warmer world, our findings also imply heighted conservation concern for vulnerable northern lineages facing range contractions. PMID:29554097

Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.

2013-12-01

In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

2018-04-01

Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

The fate of threatened coastal dune habitats in Italy under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T R

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an "indirect" plant-species-based one and a simple "direct" one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the "direct" approach was unsatisfactory, "indirect" models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species' responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats' distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future.

The Fate of Threatened Coastal Dune Habitats in Italy under Climate Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Prisco, Irene; Carboni, Marta; Acosta, Alicia T. R.

2013-01-01

Coastal dunes worldwide harbor threatened habitats characterized by high diversity in terms of plant communities. In Italy, recent assessments have highlighted the insufficient state of conservation of these habitats as defined by the EU Habitats Directive. The effects of predicted climate change could have dramatic consequences for coastal environments in the near future. An assessment of the efficacy of protection measures under climate change is thus a priority. Here, we have developed environmental envelope models for the most widespread dune habitats in Italy, following two complementary approaches: an “indirect” plant-species-based one and a simple “direct” one. We analyzed how habitats distribution will be altered under the effects of two climate change scenarios and evaluated if the current Italian network of protected areas will be effective in the future after distribution shifts. While modeling dune habitats with the “direct” approach was unsatisfactory, “indirect” models had a good predictive performance, highlighting the importance of using species’ responses to climate change for modeling these habitats. The results showed that habitats closer to the sea may even increase their geographical distribution in the near future. The transition dune habitat is projected to remain stable, although mobile and fixed dune habitats are projected to lose most of their actual geographical distribution, the latter being more sensitive to climate change effects. Gap analysis highlighted that the habitats’ distribution is currently adequately covered by protected areas, achieving the conservation target. However, according to predictions, protection level for mobile and fixed dune habitats is predicted to drop drastically under the climate change scenarios which we examined. Our results provide useful insights for setting management priorities and better addressing conservation efforts to preserve these threatened habitats in future. PMID:23874787

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2016-04-01

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two methodologies are statistically compared and evaluated. The comparison between the historic event generated by the model and the observed event will give information on the realism of the model for this event. The comparison between the delta transformation method and the future simulation will provide information on how the dynamics would affect the precipitation field, as compared to the statistical method.

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).

PubMed

Soleimani, Azam; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Jafari, Mostafa; Francaviglia, Rosa

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R 2 =0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha -1 ). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

2015-01-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change

PubMed Central

Serra-Varela, María Jesús; Alía, Ricardo; Pórtoles, Javier; Gonzalo, Julián; Soliño, Mario; Grivet, Delphine; Raposo, Rosa

2017-01-01

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations. PMID:28192454

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

PubMed

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ISMIP6: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, S.

2015-01-01

ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6) targets the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and the Future Sea Level Grand Challenges of the WCRP (World Climate Research Program). Primary goal is to provide future sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with associated uncertainty. Secondary goal is to investigate feedback due to dynamic ice sheet models. Experiment design uses and augment the existing CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) experiments. Additonal MIP (Model Intercomparison Project)- specific experiments will be designed for ISM (Ice Sheet Model). Effort builds on the Ice2sea, SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) and COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) efforts.

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

2016-01-01

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the long term. PMID:26784113

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed Central

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S.

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation. PMID:26083361

Growth response of conifers in Adirondack plantations to changing environment: Model approaches based on stem-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Y.

1993-01-01

Based on model approaches, three conifer species, red pine, Norway spruce and Scots pine grown in plantations at Pack Demonstration Forest, in the southeastern Adirondack mountains of New York, were chosen to study growth response to different environmental changes, including silvicultural treatments and changes in climate and chemical environment. Detailed stem analysis data provided a basis for constructing tree growth models. These models were organized into three groups: morphological, dynamic and predictive. The morphological model was designed to evaluate relationship between tree attributes and interactive influences of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the annual increments. Three types of morphological patternsmore » have been characterized: space-time patterns of whole-stem rings, intrinsic wood deposition pattern along the tree-stem, and bolewood allocation ratio patterns along the tree-stem. The dynamic model reflects the growth process as a system which responds to extrinsic signal inputs, including fertilization pulses, spacing effects and climatic disturbance, as well as intrinsic feedback. Growth signals indicative of climatic effects were used to construct growth-climate models using both multivariate analysis and Kalman filter methods. The predictive model utilized GCMs and growth-climate relationships to forecast tree growth responses in relation to future scenarios of CO[sub 2]-induced climate change. Prediction results indicate that different conifer species have individualistic growth response to future climatic change and suggest possible changes in future growth and distribution of naturally occurring conifers in this region.« less

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

2015-12-01

Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.

Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

2012-12-01

The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in these projects is to provide the connections between climate data and running ecological models, and prototype these for future work. NCPP will develop capacities to provide enhanced climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales, both for historical climate and projections of future climate, and will work to link expert guidance and understanding of modeling processes and evaluation of modeling with the use of numerical climate data. Translational information thus is a suite of information that aids in translation of numerical climate information into usable knowledge for applications, e.g. ecological response models, hydrologic risk studies. This information includes technical and scientific aspects including, but not limited to: 1) results of objective, quantitative evaluation of climate models & downscaling techniques, 2) guidance on appropriate uses and interpretation, i.e., understanding the advantages and limitations of various downscaling techniques for specific user applications, 3) characterizing and interpreting uncertainty, 4) Descriptions meaningful to applications, e.g. narratives. NCPP believes that translational information is best co-developed between climate scientists and applications scientists, such as the NC-CSC pilot.

Climate Voyager: An Iteratively Built Information and Visualization Tool for At-Risk Climate Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Lascurain, A.; Aldridge, H. D.; Davis, C.

2016-12-01

Climate Voyager provides an innovative way to visualize both large-scale and local climate change projections using a three-map layout and time series plot. This product includes a suite of tools designed to assist with climate risk and opportunity assessments, including changes in average seasonal conditions and the capability to evaluate a variety of different decision-relevant thresholds (e.g. changes in extreme temperature occurrence). Each tool summarizes output from 20 downscaled global climate models and contains a historical average for comparison with the spread of projected future outcomes. The Climate Voyager website is interactive, allowing users to explore both regional and location-specific guidance for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and four future 20-year time periods. By presenting climate model projections and measures of uncertainty of specific parameters beyond just annual temperatures and precipitation, Climate Voyager can help a wide variety of decision makers plan for climate changes that may affect them. We present a case study in which a new module was developed within Climate Voyager for use by Tribes and native communities in the eastern U.S. to help make informed resource decisions. In this first attempt, Ramps (Allium tricoccum), a plant species of great cultural significance, was incorporated through consultation with the tribal organization. We will also discuss the process of engagement employed with end-users and the potential to make the Climate Voyager interface an iterative, co-produced process to enhance the usability of climate model information for adaptation planning.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

PubMed

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

2014-03-04

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

2014-01-01

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner; Mary Beth Adams; Douglas Burns; Ivan Fernandez; Myron J. Mitchell; James B. Shanley

2016-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and...

Modeling potential hydrochemical responses to climate change and rising CO2 at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest using a dynamic biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC)

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe

2012-01-01

Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. We used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to evaluate the effects of potential future changes in temperature,...

Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Patricia R. Butler; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Leslie Brandt; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Kent Karriker; Jarel Bartig; Stephanie Connolly; William Dijak; Scott Bearer; Steve Blatt; Andrea Brandon; Elizabeth Byers; Cheryl Coon; Tim Culbreth; Jad Daly; Wade Dorsey; David Ede; Chris Euler; Neil Gillies; David M. Hix; Catherine Johnson; Latasha Lyte; Stephen Matthews; Dawn McCarthy; Dave Minney; Daniel Murphy; Claire O’Dea; Rachel Orwan; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Cotton Randall; Jason Reed; Cynthia Sandeno; Tom Schuler; Lesley Sneddon; Bill Stanley; Al Steele; Susan Stout; Randy Swaty; Jason Teets; Tim Tomon; Jim Vanderhorst; John Whatley; Nicholas Zegre

2015-01-01

Forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future...

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment

Treesearch

Natalie A. Griffiths; Paul J. Hanson; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Colleen M. Iversen; Anna M. Jensen; Avni Malhotra; Karis J. McFarlane; Richard J. Norby; Khachik Sargsyan; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Xiaoying Shi; Anthony P. Walker; Eric J. Ward; Jeffrey M. Warren; David J. Weston

2017-01-01

We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial...

A Transient Initialization Routine of the Community Ice Sheet Model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, Larissa; van den Broeke, Michiel; Noël, Brice; van de Wal, Roderik

2017-04-01

The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is to be applied in future simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a range of climate change scenarios, determining the sensitivity of the ice sheet to individual climatic forcings. In order to achieve reliable results regarding ice sheet stability and assess the probability of future occurrence of tipping points, a realistic initial ice sheet geometry is essential. The current work describes and evaluates the development of a transient initialization routine, using NGRIP 18O isotope data to create a temperature anomaly field. Based on the latter, surface mass balance components runoff and precipitation are perturbed for the past 125k years. The precipitation and runoff fields originate from a downscaled 1 km resolution version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 for the period 1961-1990. The result of the initialization routine is a present-day ice sheet with a transient memory of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which will serve as the future runs' initial condition.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

PubMed

Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

2015-04-01

Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).

PubMed

Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G; Bowes, Michael J; Read, Daniel S; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J

2016-12-01

Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh; ...

2018-05-23

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Gang; Gao, Huilin; Kao, Shih -Chieh

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selectedmore » from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combination of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

2012-04-01

The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for the two climate scenarios by using an hydrological distributed model (SWAP). For 11 olive cultivars, the yield response function to soil water regime was determined through the re-analysis of experimental data (unpublished or derived from scientific literature). According to these responses, cultivar-specific threshold values of soil water (or evapotranspiration) deficit were defined. The soil water regime calculated by the distributed model was compared with the threshold values to identify cultivars compatible with present and expected climates. The operation is repeated for a set of realizations of each climate scenario. This analysis is performed in a distributed manner, i.e. using the time series for each model grid to assess possible variations in the extent and spatial distribution of cultivated area of olive cultivars. In the study area future climate scenarios predict an increase of monthly minimum and maximum air temperature of about 2°C during the summer (June, July and August) and a reduction of rainfall in autumn. Spatial pattern of cultivars distribution, according their threshold values and soil water regime, was determined in the present and future climate scenarios, thus assessing variations in cultivars adaptability to future climate with respect to the present. Key words: climate change, biodiversity, water availability, yield response. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008).

Changing Characteristics of convective storms: Results from a continental-scale convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Bullock, R.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Convective storms are causing extremes such as flooding, landslides, and wind gusts and are related to the development of tornadoes and hail. Convective storms are also the dominant source of summer precipitation in most regions of the Contiguous United States. So far little is known about how convective storms might change due to global warming. This is mainly because of the coarse grid spacing of state-of-the-art climate models that are not able to resolve deep convection explicitly. Instead, coarse resolution models rely on convective parameterization schemes that are a major source of errors and uncertainties in climate change projections. Convection-permitting climate simulations, with grid-spacings smaller than 4 km, show significant improvements in the simulation of convective storms by representing deep convection explicitly. Here we use a pair of 13-year long current and future convection-permitting climate simulations that cover large parts of North America. We use the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension (MODE-TD) to analyze the model performance in reproducing storm features in the current climate and to investigate their potential future changes. We show that the model is able to accurately reproduce the main characteristics of convective storms in the present climate. The comparison with the future climate simulation shows that convective storms significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and size. Furthermore, they are projected to move slower which could result in a substantial increase in convective storm-related hazards such as flash floods, debris flows, and landslides. Some regions, such as the North Atlantic, might experience a regime shift that leads to significantly stronger storms that are unrepresented in the current climate.

Assessing present and future climate changes in Siberia and their regional socioeconomic consequences using a web-based big data geoprocessing platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Gordov, E. P.

2016-12-01

Recently initiated collaborative research project is presented. Its main objective is to develop high spatial and temporal resolution datasets for studying the ongoing and future climate changes in Siberia, caused by global and regional processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. This goal will be achieved by using a set of regional and global climate models for the analysis of the mechanisms of climate change and quantitative assessment of changes in key climate variables, including analysis of extreme weather and climate events and their dynamics, evaluation of the frequency, amplitude and the risks caused by the extreme events in the region. The main practical application of the project is to provide experts, stakeholders and the public with quantitative information about the future climate change in Siberia obtained on the base of a computational web- geoinformation platform. The thematic platform will be developed in order to facilitate processing and analysis of high resolution georeferenced datasets that will be delivered and made available to scientific community, policymakes and other end users as a result of the project. Software packages will be developed to implement calculation of various climatological indicators in order to characterize and diagnose climate change and its dynamics, as well as to archive results in digital form of electronic maps (GIS layers). By achieving these goals the project will provide science based tools necessary for developing mitigation measures for adapting to climate change and reducing negative impact on the population and infrastructure of the region. Financial support of the computational web- geoinformation platform prototype development by the RF Ministry of Education and Science under Agreement 14.613.21.0037 (RFMEFI61315X0037) is acknowledged.

Hydroclimatic Change in the Congo River Basin: Past, Present and Future169

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloysius, N. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical regions provide habitat for the world's most diverse fauna and flora, sequester more atmospheric carbon and provide livelihood for millions of people. The hydrological cycle provides vital linkages for maintaining these ecosystem functions, yet, the understanding of its spatiotemporal variability is limited. Research on the hydrological cycle of the Congo River Basin (CRB), which encompasses the second largest rainforests, has been largely ignored. Global Climate Models (GCM) show limited skills in simulating CRB's climate and their future projections vary widely. Yet, GCMs provide the most plausible scenarios of future climate, based upon which changes in hydrologic fluxes can be predicted with the aid hydrological models. In order to address the gaps in knowledge and to highlight the research needs, we i) developed a spatially explicit hydrological model suitable for describing key hydrological processes, ii) evaluated the performance of GCMs in simulating precipitation and temperature in the region, iii) developed a set of climate change scenarios for the CRB and iv) developed a simplified modeling framework to quantify water management options for rain-fed agriculture with the objective of achieving the triple goals of sustainable development: food security, poverty alleviation and ecosystem conservation. The hydrology model, which was validated with observed stream flows at 50 locations, satisfactorily characterizes spatiotemporal variability of key fluxes. Our evaluation of 25 GCM outputs reveal that many GCMs poorly simulate regional precipitation. We implemented a statistical bias-correction method to develop precipitation and temperature projections for two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These climate forcings were, then, used to drive the hydrology model. Our results show that the near-term projections are not affected by emission scenarios. However, towards the mid-21st century, projections are emission scenario dependent. Available freshwater resources are projected to increase in the CRB, except in the semiarid southeast. Our findings have wider implications for climate change assessment and water resource management, because the region, with high population growth and limited capacity to adapt, are primary targets of land and water grabs. 155

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

2018-01-01

Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders.

PubMed

Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-02-23

Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials☆

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Vigl, Friedrich; Rössler, Günter; Neumann, Markus; Rammer, Werner

2017-01-01

As a result of a rapidly changing climate the resilience of forests is an increasingly important property for ecosystem management. Recent efforts have improved the theoretical understanding of resilience, yet its operational quantification remains challenging. Furthermore, there is growing awareness that resilience is not only a means to addressing the consequences of climate change but is also affected by it, necessitating a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of resilience. Quantifying current and future resilience is thus an important step towards mainstreaming resilience thinking into ecosystem management. Here, we present a novel approach for quantifying forest resilience from thinning trials, and assess the climate sensitivity of resilience using process-based ecosystem modeling. We reinterpret the wide range of removal intensities and frequencies in thinning trials as an experimental gradient of perturbation, and estimate resilience as the recovery rate after perturbation. Our specific objectives were (i) to determine how resilience varies with stand and site conditions, (ii) to assess the climate sensitivity of resilience across a range of potential future climate scenarios, and (iii) to evaluate the robustness of resilience estimates to different focal indicators and assessment methodologies. We analyzed three long-term thinning trials in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests across an elevation gradient in Austria, evaluating and applying the individual-based process model iLand. The resilience of Norway spruce was highest at the montane site, and decreased at lower elevations. Resilience also decreased with increasing stand age and basal area. The effects of climate change were strongly context-dependent: At the montane site, where precipitation levels were ample even under climate change, warming increased resilience in all scenarios. At lower elevations, however, rising temperatures decreased resilience, particularly at precipitation levels below 750–800 mm. Our results were largely robust to different focal variables and resilience definitions. Based on our findings management can improve the capacity to recover from partial disturbances by avoiding overmature and overstocked conditions. At increasingly water limited sites a strongly decreasing resilience of Norway spruce will require a shift towards tree species better adapted to the expected future conditions. PMID:28860674

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Hall, A. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Granger, S. L.; Case, K.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Guan, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Kaki, S.

2010-12-01

Regional climate models are a fundamental tool needed for downscaling global climate simulations and projections, such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) that form the basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The regional modeling process provides the means to accommodate higher resolution and a greater complexity of Earth System processes. Evaluation of both the global and regional climate models against observations is essential to identify model weaknesses and to direct future model development efforts focused on reducing the uncertainty associated with climate projections. However, the lack of reliable observational data and the lack of formal tools are among the serious limitations to addressing these objectives. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information on many different aspects of the climate system, but due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using the data, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL / UCLA is developing a model evaluation system to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ, assimilated, and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the modeling community. The system includes a central database to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating predefined statistical metrics to assess model performance. This allows the time taken to compare model simulations with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. Early results from the use this new model evaluation system for evaluating regional climate simulations over California/western US regions will be presented.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception.

PubMed

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Persistent Cold Air Outbreaks over North America Under Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Leung, L. R.; Lu, J.

2014-12-01

This study evaluates the change of cold air outbreaks (CAO) over North America using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most of the North America, the decrease over northwestern U.S. was found to have much smaller magnitude than the surrounding regions. We found statistically significant increase of the sea level pressure over gulf of Alaska, leading to the advection of cold air to northwestern U.S.. By shifting the probability distribution of present temperature towards future warmer conditions, we identified the changes in large scale circulation contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure. Using the high resolution regional climate model results, we found that increases of existing snowpack could potentially trigger the increase of CAO in the near future over the southwestern U.S. and Rocky Mountain through surface albedo effects. By the end of this century, the top 5 most extreme historical CAO events may still occur and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts over North America in particular over northwestern United States.

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

Past and future weather-induced risk in crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Foster, I.; Benton, T.; Mueller, C.

2016-12-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather and may harm more people than any other consequence of climate change. Improvements in farming practices have dramatically increased crop productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation. We report here on a number of recent studies evaluating extreme event risk and impacts under historical and near future conditions, including studies conducted as part of the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience.

Sustainability of irrigated crops under future climate: the interplay of irrigation strategies and cultivar responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, F.; Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, S.; Patanè, C.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Monaco, E.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Climate evolution will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where available water resources for irrigation play a crucial role. Strategies focused on managing and conserving water are one way to deal with the impact; moreover concurring adaptation measurements will be needed to cope with the foreseen decline of water resource. This work deals with i) the impacts of climate change on water requirements of an horticultural crop, determined in an irrigated district in Southern Italy, ii) the possible irrigation scheduling options and their sustainability in the future, iii) the adaptation measurements that can be undertaken to protect production, relying on intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops. Two climate scenarios were considered: present climate (1961-90) and future climate (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data set consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall on a grid with spatial resolution of 35 km. The analysis of climate scenarios showed that significant increases in summer maximum daily temperature could be expected in 2021-2050 period. Soil water regime was determined by means of a mechanistic model (SWAP) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Twenty? soil units were identified in the district (in Sele Plain, Campania Region) and simulations were performed accounting for hydro-pedological properties of different soil units. Parameters of a generic tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, were used in simulations. Soil water balance was simulated in the present and future climate, both with optimal water availability and under constrains that irrigation schemes will pose. Indicators of soil water availability were calculated, in terms of soil water or evapotranspiration deficit. For several tomato cultivars, quantitative yield response functions to water availability were determined through the re-analysis of experimental data, derived from scientific literature. Variety-specific threshold values of yield reduction in dependence of soil water and evapotranspiration deficit were determined. The spatial pattern of soil water availability indicators was calculated., for present and future climate scenarios and for different irrigation scheduling options. Cultivars' threshold values were matched with indicators' values in all soil units. The future adaptability of the crop in the area is thus evaluated, and adaptation options that exploit the intra-specific biodiversity of the crop are indicated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, tomato, deficit irrigation, biodiversity

Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.

2011-01-01

We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (~60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms.

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neel, Shad; Hood, Eran; Arendt, Anthony; Sass, Louis

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate relationships among seasonal and annual glacier mass balances, glacier runoff and streamflow in two glacierized basins in different climate settings. We use long-term glacier mass balance and streamflow datasets from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Benchmark Glacier Program to compare and contrast glacier-streamflow interactions in a maritime climate (Wolverine Glacier) with those in a continental climate (Gulkana Glacier). Our overall goal is to improve our understanding of how glacier mass balance processes impact streamflow, ultimately improving our conceptual understanding of the future evolution of glacier runoff in continental and maritime climates.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

PubMed

Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

2015-09-01

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

High-resolution dynamical downscaling of the future Alpine climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhinova, Denica; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph

2017-04-01

The Alpine region and Switzerland is a challenging area for simulating and analysing Global Climate Model (GCM) results. This is mostly due to the combination of a very complex topography and the still rather coarse horizontal resolution of current GCMs, in which not all of the many-scale processes that drive the local weather and climate can be resolved. In our study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale a GCM simulation to a resolution as high as 2 km x 2 km. WRF is driven by initial and boundary conditions produced with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the recent past (control run) and until 2100 using the RCP8.5 climate scenario (future run). The control run downscaled with WRF covers the period 1976-2005, while the future run investigates a 20-year-slice simulated for the 2080-2099. We compare the control WRF-CESM simulations to an observational product provided by MeteoSwiss and an additional WRF simulation driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, to estimate the bias that is introduced by the extra modelling step of our framework. Several bias-correction methods are evaluated, including a quantile mapping technique, to ameliorate the bias in the control WRF-CESM simulation. In the next step of our study these corrections are applied to our future WRF-CESM run. The resulting downscaled and bias-corrected data is analysed for the properties of precipitation and wind speed in the future climate. Our special interest focuses on the absolute quantities simulated for these meteorological variables as these are used to identify extreme events, such as wind storms and situations that can lead to floods.

How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

2014-05-01

Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better-adapted canola varieties can be justified, and the potential value of a California canola industry both now and in the future. Winter annual crops like canola use rainfall in a Mediterranean climate like California more efficiently than spring or summer crops. Our results suggest that under current production costs and seed prices, dry farmed canola will have good potential in certain areas of the California. Canola yields decline with annual winter precipitation, however economically viable yields are still achieved at relatively precipitation levels (200 mm). Results from simulation, combined with related economic modeling (reported elsewhere) suggest that canola will be viable in a variety of production systems in the northern Sacramento Valley and some coastal locations, even under drier future climate scenarios. The in-field evaluation of Australian canola varieties should contribute to maintain or improving resource use efficiency and farm profitability.

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-modelmore » ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

2017-12-01

The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Mary F. Mahalovich; Diana F. Tomback

2017-01-01

Major declines of whitebark pine forests throughout western North America from the combined effects of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, fire exclusion policies, and the exotic disease white pine blister rust (WPBR) have spurred many restoration actions. However, projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species’ decline and...

Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

2016-04-01

The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability of streamflows observed in the 20th century is generally weaker in the hydrological simulations done with the historical simulations from climate models. References: Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling mehtod for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi:10.1002/2014JD022236

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change.

PubMed

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-05-23

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change

PubMed Central

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-01-01

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change. PMID:27210568

[Short Spanish version of Team Climate Inventory (TCI-14): development and psychometric properties].

PubMed

Boada-Grau, Joan; de Diego-Vallejo, Raúl; de Llanos-Serra, Emma; Vigil-Colet, Andreu

2011-04-01

The aim of the present paper was to develop a Spanish adaptation of the reduced, 14-item version of the Team Climate Inventory (TCI-14), a questionnaire developed to evaluate team climate. To this end the English version was adapted and applied to a sample of 360 employees from Castilla-León and Catalonia (44.4% men and 55.6% women). The results indicated that the TCI-14 has the same structure as the original version, and confirmatory factor analysis was used to verify the existence of the factors Vision, Participative Safety, Task Orientation and Support for Innovation. The TCI-14 also presented good reliability coefficients considering the low number of items on each scale (alphas ranged between .75 and .82). The TCI-14 is a potentially useful instrument for evaluating the climate of work teams. It could be used by future research as a screening tool in conjunction with other instruments.

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

PubMed

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

2014-10-01

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range of future scenarios in order to develop robust adaptation measures and strategies.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demands and Its Resulting Consequences on Groundwater Using CMIP5 Models.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mustafa; Abedi-Koupai, Jahangir; Heidarpour, Manouchehr

2018-04-15

In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m 3 /year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2008-12-01

The impact of climate change on energy demand and use is a significant issue for developing future GHG emission scenarios and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. A number of studies have evaluated the increase in GHG emissions as a result of changes in energy production from fossil fuels, but the consequences of climate change on energy consumption have not been the focus of many studies. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on energy use at a regional scale using the Midwestern USA as a test. The paper presents results of analyzing energy use in response to ambient temperature changes in a 17-year period from 1989 to 2006 and projection of energy use under future climate scenarios (2010-2061). This study consisted of a two-step procedure. In the first step, sensitivity of historic energy demand, specifically electricity and natural gas in residential and commercial sectors (42% of end-use energy), with respect to many climatic and non-climatic variables was examined. State-specific regression models were developed to quantify the relationship between energy use and climatic variables using degree days. We found that model parameters and base temperatures for estimating heating and cooling days varied by state and energy sector, mainly depending on climate conditions, infrastructure, economic factors, and seasonal change in energy use. In the second step, we applied these models to predict future energy demand using output data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the SRES A1B scenario used in the IPCC AR-4. The annual demands of electricity and natural gas were predicted for each state from 2010 to 2061. The model results indicate that the average annual electricity demand will increase 3%-5% for the southern states and 1%-3% for the northern states in the region by 2061 and that the demand for natural gas is expected to be reduced in all states. A seasonal analysis of energy distribution in response to climate variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.

An extended linear scaling method for downscaling temperature and its implication in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan, and India, using CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Rashid; JIA, Shaofeng

2017-11-01

In this study, the linear scaling method used for the downscaling of temperature was extended from monthly scaling factors to daily scaling factors (SFs) to improve the daily variations in the corrected temperature. In the original linear scaling (OLS), mean monthly SFs are used to correct the future data, but mean daily SFs are used to correct the future data in the extended linear scaling (ELS) method. The proposed method was evaluated in the Jhelum River basin for the period 1986-2000, using the observed maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of 18 climate stations and the simulated Tmax and Tmin of five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2G, NorESM1-ME, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and CanESM2), and the method was also compared with OLS to observe the improvement. Before the evaluation of ELS, these GCMs were also evaluated using their raw data against the observed data for the same period (1986-2000). Four statistical indicators, i.e., error in mean, error in standard deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient, were used for the evaluation process. The evaluation results with GCMs' raw data showed that GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5 performed better than other GCMs according to all the indicators but with unsatisfactory results that confine their direct application in the basin. Nevertheless, after the correction with ELS, a noticeable improvement was observed in all the indicators except correlation coefficient because this method only adjusts (corrects) the magnitude. It was also noticed that the daily variations of the observed data were better captured by the corrected data with ELS than OLS. Finally, the ELS method was applied for the downscaling of five GCMs' Tmax and Tmin for the period of 2041-2070 under RCP8.5 in the Jhelum basin. The results showed that the basin would face hotter climate in the future relative to the present climate, which may result in increasing water requirements in public, industrial, and agriculture sectors; change in the hydrological cycle and monsoon pattern; and lack of glaciers in the basin.

Climate-induced alteration of hydrologic indicators in the Athabasca River Basin, Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Dibike, Yonas; Prowse, Terry

2017-01-01

The hydrologic response of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Alberta to projected changes in the future climate is investigated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based and distributed hydrologic model. The model forcings are derived from a selected set of GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) statistically downscaled to a higher resolution (10 km) over Canada. Twelve hydrologic indicators that represent the magnitude and timing of the hydrologic regimes are evaluated for three 30-year time periods centered at the 1990s, 2050s and 2080s to identify significant alterations of hydrologic regimes between the reference and the two future periods using a t-test at 5% significance level. Hydrologic alteration factors (HAF) are also evaluated for each hydrologic indicator using the range of variability approach (RVA) to investigate projected changes in the distribution of these indicators. The results show increases in spring and winter flows for the two future periods at all hydrometric stations within the basin, resulting in an extended period of spring freshet. A higher rate of increase is projected for the stations located at the upper reach of the river because of the combined effects of increased precipitation and earlier snowmelt resulting from a warming climate. By contrast, summer flows are projected to decrease by up to 21% on average in the 2080s over most of the mainstem stations because of earlier snowmelt, increased evapotranspiration and no significant increase in summer precipitation. A water-management rule that optimizes impacts of water withdrawal from the lower reach of the Athabasca River under the current condition is also applied to the future scenarios to assess its relative performance under the projected climate conditions. The results indicate possible improvement in the water resources system performance in terms of increased reliability and resilience and reduced vulnerability during the two future periods as compared with those in the reference period mainly because of the projected increases in spring and winter flows, which has the potential to offset an expected future water deficit.

Regional modelling of nitrate leaching from Swiss organic and conventional cropping systems under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calitri, Francesca; Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Zaccone, Claudio; Spiess, Ernst; Herrera, Juan; Six, Johan

2016-04-01

Organic cropping systems have been promoted as a sustainable alternative to minimize the environmental impacts of conventional practices. Relatively little is known about the potential to reduce NO3-N leaching through the large-scale adoption of organic practices. Moreover, the potential to mitigate NO3-N leaching and thus the N pollution under future climate change through organic farming remain unknown and highly uncertain. Here, we compared regional NO3-N leaching from organic and conventional cropping systems in Switzerland using a terrestrial biogeochemical process-based model DayCent. The objectives of this study are 1) to calibrate and evaluate the model for NO3-N leaching measured under various management practices from three experiments at two sites in Switzerland; 2) to estimate regional NO3-N leaching patterns and their spatial uncertainty in conventional and organic cropping systems (with and without cover crops) for future climate change scenario A1B; 3) to explore the sensitivity of NO3-N leaching to changes in soil and climate variables; and 4) to assess the nitrogen use efficiency for conventional and organic cropping systems with and without cover crops under climate change. The data for model calibration/evaluation were derived from field experiments conducted in Liebefeld (canton Bern) and Eschikon (canton Zürich). These experiments evaluated effects of various cover crops and N fertilizer inputs on NO3-N leaching. The preliminary results suggest that the model was able to explain 50 to 83% of the inter-annual variability in the measured soil drainage (RMSE from 12.32 to 16.89 cm y-1). The annual NO3-N leaching was also simulated satisfactory (RMSE = 3.94 to 6.38 g N m-2 y-1), although the model had difficulty to reproduce the inter-annual variability in the NO3-N leaching losses correctly (R2 = 0.11 to 0.35). Future climate datasets (2010-2099) from the 10 regional climate models (RCM) were used in the simulations. Regional NO3-N leaching predictions for conventional cropping system with a three years rotation (silage maize, potatoes and winter wheat) in Zurich and Bern cantons varied from 6.30 to 16.89 g N m-2 y-1 over a 30-years period. Further simulations and analyses will follow to provide insights into understanding of driving variables and patterns of N losses by leaching in response to changes from conventional to organic cropping systems, and climate change.

Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luce, Charles H.; Lopez-Burgos, Viviana; Holden, Zachary

2014-12-01

Empirical sensitivity analyses are important for evaluation of the effects of a changing climate on water resources and ecosystems. Although mechanistic models are commonly applied for evaluation of climate effects for snowmelt, empirical relationships provide a first-order validation of the various postulates required for their implementation. Previous studies of empirical sensitivity for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) in the western United States were developed by regressing interannual variations in SWE to winter precipitation and temperature. This offers a temporal analog for climate change, positing that a warmer future looks like warmer years. Spatial analogs are used to hypothesize that a warmer future may look like warmer places, and are frequently applied alternatives for complex processes, or states/metrics that show little interannual variability (e.g., forest cover). We contrast spatial and temporal analogs for sensitivity of April 1 SWE and the mean residence time of snow (SRT) using data from 524 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western U.S. We built relatively strong models using spatial analogs to relate temperature and precipitation climatology to snowpack climatology (April 1 SWE, R2=0.87, and SRT, R2=0.81). Although the poorest temporal analog relationships were in areas showing the highest sensitivity to warming, spatial analog models showed consistent performance throughout the range of temperature and precipitation. Generally, slopes from the spatial relationships showed greater thermal sensitivity than the temporal analogs, and high elevation stations showed greater vulnerability using a spatial analog than shown in previous modeling and sensitivity studies. The spatial analog models provide a simple perspective to evaluate potential futures and may be useful in further evaluation of snowpack with warming.

Evaluating fire danger in Brazilian biomes: present and future patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Patrícia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Libonati, Renata

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on fire occurrence and activity, particularly in Brazil, a region known to be fire-prone [1]. The Brazilian savanna, commonly referred to as cerrado, is a fire-adapted biome covering more than 20% of the country's total area. It presents the highest numbers of fire events, making it particularly susceptible to changes in climate. It is thus essential to understand the present fire regimes in Brazilian biomes, in order to better evaluate future patterns. The CPTEC/INPE, the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research at the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research developed a fire danger index based on the occurrence of hundreds of thousands of fire events in the main Brazilian biomes [2]: the Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI). This index indicates the predisposition of vegetation to be burned on a given day, for given climate conditions preceding that day. It relies on daily values of air temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation and vegetation cover. In this study we aim to access the capability of the MFDI to accurately replicate present fire conditions for different biomes, with a special focus on cerrado. To this end, we assess the link between the MFDI as calculated by three different reanalysis (ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and MERRA-2) and the observed burned area. We further calculate the validated MFDI using a regional climate model, the RCA4 as forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX, to understand the ability of the model to characterize present fire danger. Finally, the need to calibrate the model to better characterize future fire danger was also evaluated. This work was developed within the framework of the Brazilian Fire-Land-Atmosphere System (BrFLAS) Project financed by the Portuguese and Brazilian science foundations, FCT and FAPESP (project references FAPESP/1389/2014 and 2014/20042-2). [1] KRAWCHUK, M.A.; MORITZ, M.A.; PARISIEN, M.A.; VAN DORN, J.; HAYHOE, K. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLOS ONE, v. 4, n. 4, e5102, 2009. [2] SETZER, A.W.; SISMANOGLU, R.A. Risco de Fogo: Metodologia do Cálculo - Descrição sucinta da Versão 9. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 2012. Available at: . Accessed on: 10 jan. 2017.

Teaching climate change: A 16-year record of introducing undergraduates to the fundamentals of the climate system and its complexities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.

2011-12-01

Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Climatic Controls on Forest Productivity in Western North America; Variability, Covariability, and Projected Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Sparrow, S.; Massey, N.

2016-12-01

The forests of western North America serve as a carbon sink sequestering carbon and slowing the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Though still positive, the rate of net carbon uptake has been in decline over the past two decades. Regional drought has been shown to slow forest productivity and net carbon uptake despite warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. With drought conditions projected to increase in frequency and severity under climate change there is concern that these forests' capacity as an effective carbon sink will continue to decrease in the future. To investigate how changes in regional hydroclimate may affect future carbon uptake in western US forests we dynamically downscaled global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3P with the land surface scheme MOSES2. We generated a 100-member ensemble of simulations for an historical period (1985-2015) and mid-21st century period (2030-2060) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We evaluated the effects of regional changes in atmospheric moisture demand, seasonality of water supply, and water stress on forest productivity and carbon uptake. We investigated how these changes in hydroclimate interact with the relaxing of temperature controls. This work can inform future adaptation efforts through improving our understanding of climatic controls on forest carbon sequestration.

Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality regulations are robust under a range of possible future climates and to consider possible policy actions to mitigate climate change, it is important to characterize and understand the effects of climate change on air quality. Recent work by several research groups using global and regional models has demonstrated that there is a "climate penalty," in which climate change leads to increases in surface ozone levels in polluted continental regions. One approach to simulating future air quality at the regional scale is via dynamical downscaling, in which fields from a global climate model are used as input for a regional climate model, and these regional climate data are subsequently used for chemical transport modeling. However, recent studies using this approach have encountered problems with the downscaled regional climate fields, including unrealistic surface temperatures and misrepresentation of synoptic pressure patterns such as the Bermuda High. We developed a downscaling methodology and showed that it now reasonably simulates regional climate by evaluating it against historical data. In this work, regional climate simulations created by downscaling the NASA/GISS Model E2 global climate model are used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ simulations over the continental United States are conducted for two 11-year time slices, one representing current climate (1995-2005) and one following Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from 2025-2035. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone and PM precursors are held constant at year 2006 levels for both the current and future periods. In our presentation, we will examine the changes in ozone and PM concentrations, with particular focus on exceedances of the current U.S. air quality standards, and attempt to relate the changes in air quality to the projected changes in regional climate.

An Object-Based Approach to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.

2017-12-01

Evaluations of the performance of earth system model predictions and projections are of critical importance to enhance usefulness of these products. Such evaluations need to address specific concerns depending on the system and decisions of interest; hence, evaluation tools must be tailored to inform about specific issues. Traditional approaches that summarize grid-based comparisons of analyses and models, or between current and future climate, often do not reveal important information about the models' performance (e.g., spatial or temporal displacements; the reason behind a poor score) and are unable to accommodate these specific information needs. For example, summary statistics such as the correlation coefficient or the mean-squared error provide minimal information to developers, users, and decision makers regarding what is "right" and "wrong" with a model. New spatial and temporal-spatial object-based tools from the field of weather forecast verification (where comparisons typically focus on much finer temporal and spatial scales) have been adapted to more completely answer some of the important earth system model evaluation questions. In particular, the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool and its temporal (three-dimensional) extension (MODE-TD) have been adapted for these evaluations. More specifically, these tools can be used to address spatial and temporal displacements in projections of El Nino-related precipitation and/or temperature anomalies, ITCZ-associated precipitation areas, atmospheric rivers, seasonal sea-ice extent, and other features of interest. Examples of several applications of these tools in a climate context will be presented, using output of the CESM large ensemble. In general, these tools provide diagnostic information about model performance - accounting for spatial, temporal, and intensity differences - that cannot be achieved using traditional (scalar) model comparison approaches. Thus, they can provide more meaningful information that can be used in decision-making and planning. Future extensions and applications of these tools in a climate context will be considered.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency.

PubMed

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-06-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-06-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat ( Triticum aestivum L .) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Effectiveness of time of sowing and cultivar choice for managing climate change: wheat crop phenology and water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qunying; O'Leary, Garry; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2018-02-01

Climate change (CC) presents a challenge for the sustainable development of wheat production systems in Australia. This study aimed to (1) quantify the impact of future CC on wheat grain yield for the period centred on 2030 from the perspectives of wheat phenology, water use and water use efficiency (WUE) and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of changing sowing times and cultivars in response to the expected impacts of future CC on wheat grain yield. The daily outputs of CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model for baseline and future periods were used by a stochastic weather generator to derive changes in mean climate and in climate variability and to construct local climate scenarios, which were then coupled with a wheat crop model to achieve the two research aims. We considered three locations in New South Wales, Australia, six times of sowing (TOS) and three bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars in this study. Simulation results show that in 2030 (1) for impact analysis, wheat phenological events are expected to occur earlier and crop water use is expected to decrease across all cases (the combination of three locations, six TOS and three cultivars), wheat grain yield would increase or decrease depending on locations and TOS; and WUE would increase in most of the cases; (2) for adaptation considerations, the combination of TOS and cultivars with the highest yield varied across locations. Wheat growers at different locations will require different strategies in managing the negative impacts or taking the opportunities of future CC.

Calibrating vascular plant abundance for detecting future climate changes in Oregon and Washington, USA

Treesearch

Timothy J. Brady; Vicente J. Monleon; Andrew N. Gray

2010-01-01

We propose using future vascular plant abundances as indicators of future climate in a way analogous to the reconstruction of past environments by many palaeoecologists. To begin monitoring future short-term climate changes in the forests of Oregon and Washington, USA, we developed a set of transfer functions for a present-day calibration set consisting of climate...

Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

2016-04-01

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample from the full range of uncertainties associated with all parts of the simulation chain, from global climate models with simulations of natural climate variability, through regional climate downscaling, and on to modeling of affected hydrologic processes and downstream water resources impacts. This talk will present part of the work underway now both to reveal and reduce some important uncertainties and to develop explicit guidance for future generation of quantitative hydroclimatic storylines. Topics will include: 1- model structural and parameter-set limitations of some methods widely used to quantify climate impacts to hydrologic processes [Gutmann et al., 2014; Newman et al., 2015]; 2- development and evaluation of new, spatially consistent, U.S. national-scale climate downscaling and hydrologic simulation capabilities directly relevant at the multiple scales of water-resource decision-making [Newman et al., 2015; Mizukami et al., 2015; Gutmann et al., 2016]; and 3- development and evaluation of advanced streamflow forecasting methods to reduce and represent integrated uncertainties in a tractable way [Wood et al., 2014; Wood et al., 2015]. A key focus will be areas where climatologic and hydrologic science is currently under-developed to inform decisions - or is perhaps wrongly scaled or misapplied in practice - indicating the need for additional fundamental science and interpretation.

Characterization and Quantification of Uncertainty in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Ensemble and Application to Impacts on Water Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.; Sain, S. R.; McGinnis, S. A.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2015-12-01

In this talk we present the development of a joint Bayesian Probabilistic Model for the climate change results of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) that uses a unique prior in the model formulation. We use the climate change results (joint distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes (future vs. current)) from the global climate models (GCMs) that provided boundary conditions for the six different regional climate models used in the program as informative priors for the bivariate Bayesian Model. The two variables involved are seasonal temperature and precipitation over sub-regions (i.e., Bukovsky Regions) of the full NARCCAP domain. The basic approach to the joint Bayesian hierarchical model follows the approach of Tebaldi and Sansó (2009). We compare model results using informative (i.e., GCM information) as well as uninformative priors. We apply these results to the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model for the Colorado Springs Utility in Colorado. We investigate the layout of the joint pdfs in the context of the water model sensitivities to ranges of temperature and precipitation results to determine the likelihoods of future climate conditions that cannot be accommodated by possible adaptation options. Comparisons may also be made with joint pdfs formed from the CMIP5 collection of global climate models and empirically downscaled to the region of interest.

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. Even though this project is in its first year, the preliminary results and future plans to carry out the objectives will be presented.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Surface Hydrology over Texas River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2014-12-01

Future freshwater availability is a pressing issue in Texas due to frequent drought events and fast population growth. Even though the science community has well investigated future temperature trends, it is still unclear whether precipitation will increase or decrease in this region. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how the changing climate will affect water resources across different spatial-temporal scales. This study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology at the basin scale under different future emission scenarios. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, forced by an ensemble of statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, is employed to predict the future hydrology. The VIC model parameters are adopted from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). The analysis is carried out in three steps. First, the observed streamflows are used to evaluate the performance of VIC simulations forced by CMIP5 models during historical period. Second, VIC outputs under multiple CMIP5 model scenarios from 1950 to 2099 are analyzed to identify how soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, and routed streamflows change in time and space. Third, the spatial patterns of seasonal temperature, seasonal precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)—over four 20-year periods (1980-1999, 2010-2029, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099)—are used to pinpoint the regions that will be most affected by climate change (among the 13 Texan river basins). Furthermore, the role of groundwater in meeting the increasing needs for water supply is discussed. The results are expected to contribute to various future water resources management decisions in Texas.

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of streamflow under the climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We utilize two techniques for correcting biases in the climate model output: quantile mapping and a new method, frequency bias correction. The FBC method matches the frequencies between observed and GCM-RCM data. In this way, it can be used to correct for all time scales, which is a known limitation of quantile mapping. A novel approach for the evaluation of the climate simulations and bias correction methods was then applied. Streamflow can be thought of as the "great integrator" of uncertainties. The ability, or the lack thereof, to correctly simulate streamflow is a way to assess the realism of the bias-corrected climate simulations. Long-term monthly mean as well as high and low flow metrics are used to evaluate the realism of the simulations under current climate and to gauge the impacts of climate change on streamflow. Preliminary results show that under present climate, calibration of the hydrological model comprises of a much smaller band of uncertainty in the modeling chain as compared to the bias correction of the GCM-RCMs. Therefore, for future time periods, we expect the bias correction of climate model data to have a greater influence on projected changes in streamflow than the calibration of the hydrological model.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species.

PubMed

McClure, Michelle M; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane; Boughton, David; Crozier, Lisa; Griffis, Roger; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Lindley, Steven T; Nye, Janet; Rowland, Melanie J; Seney, Erin E; Snover, Amy; Toole, Christopher; VAN Houtan, Kyle

2013-12-01

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

2017-12-01

Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and perspectives. In addition, we found that spatial analysis supports informed adaptation, within and outside the SW United States. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example and may offer solutions to reduce future climate risk.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

2016-12-01

The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The results indicate that the projected Yp in the Korean peninsula is significantly changed comparing to the historical period and proper adaptation strategies such as optimized planting dates can considerably alleviate Yp decrease.

Evaluation of DGVMs in tropical areas: linking patterns of vegetation cover, climate and fire to ecological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Onofrio, Donatella; von Hardenberg, Jost; Baudena, Mara

2017-04-01

Many current Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), including those incorporated into Earth System Models (ESMs), are able to realistically reproduce the distribution of the most worldwide biomes. However, they display high uncertainty in predicting the forest, savanna and grassland distributions and the transitions between them in tropical areas. These biomes are the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, and owing to their different biogeophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, future changes in their distributions could have also impacts on climate states. In particular, expected increasing temperature and CO2, modified precipitation regimes, as well as increasing land-use intensity could have large impacts on global biogeochemical cycles and precipitation, affecting the land-climate interactions. The difficulty of the DGVMs in simulating tropical vegetation, especially savanna structure and occurrence, has been associated with the way they represent the ecological processes and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic conditions. The inclusion of appropriate ecological mechanisms under present climatic conditions is essential for obtaining reliable future projections of vegetation and climate states. In this work we analyse observed relationships of tree and grass cover with climate and fire, and the current ecological understanding of the mechanisms driving the forest-savanna-grassland transition in Africa to evaluate the outcomes of a current state-of-the-art DGVM and to assess which ecological processes need to be included or improved within the model. Specifically, we analyse patterns of woody and herbaceous cover and fire return times from MODIS satellite observations, rainfall annual average and seasonality from TRMM satellite measurements and tree phenology information from the ESA global land cover map, comparing them with the outcomes of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, also used by the EC-Earth global climate model. The comparison analysis with the LPJ-GUESS simulations suggests possible improvements in the model representations of tree-grass competition for water and in the vegetation-fire interaction. The proposed method could be useful for evaluating DGVMs in tropical areas, especially in the phase of model setting-up, before the coupling with Earth System Models. This could help in improving the simulations of ecological processes and consequently of land-climate interactions.

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2007-01-01

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

2015-12-01

More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Projection of invertebrate populations in the headwater streams of a temperate catchment under a changing climate.

PubMed

Nukazawa, Kei; Arai, Ryosuke; Kazama, So; Takemon, Yasuhiro

2018-06-14

Climate change places considerable stress on riverine ecosystems by altering flow regimes and increasing water temperature. This study evaluated how water temperature increases under climate change scenarios will affect stream invertebrates in pristine headwater streams. The studied headwater-stream sites were distributed within a temperate catchment of Japan and had similar hydraulic-geographical conditions, but were subject to varying temperature conditions due to altitudinal differences (100 to 850 m). We adopted eight general circulation models (GCMs) to project air temperature under conservative (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5), and extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5) during the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Using the water temperature of headwater streams computed by a distributed hydrological-thermal model as a predictor variable, we projected the population density of stream invertebrates in the future scenarios based on generalized linear models. The mean decrease in the temporally averaged population density of Plecoptera was 61.3% among the GCMs, even under RCP2.6 in the near future, whereas density deteriorated even further (90.7%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. Trichoptera density was also projected to greatly deteriorate under RCP8.5 in the far future. We defined taxa that exhibited temperature-sensitive declines under climate change as cold stenotherms and found that most Plecoptera taxa were cold stenotherms in comparison to other orders. Specifically, the taxonomic families that only distribute in Palearctic realm (e.g., Megarcys ochracea and Scopura longa) were selectively assigned, suggesting that Plecoptera family with its restricted distribution in the Palearctic might be a sensitive indicator of climate change. Plecoptera and Trichoptera populations in the headwaters are expected/anticipated to decrease over the considerable geographical range of the catchment, even under the RCP2.6 in the near future. Given headwater invertebrates play important roles in streams, such as contributing to watershed productivity, our results provide useful information for managing streams at the catchment-level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.

A Dynamic Evaluation Of A Model And An Estimate Of The Air Quality And Regional Climate Impacts Of Enhanced Solar Power Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millstein, D.; Brown, N. J.; Zhai, P.; Menon, S.

2012-12-01

We use the WRF/Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry) and pollutant emissions based on the EPA National Emission Inventories from 2005 and 2008 to model regional climate and air quality over the continental United States. Additionally, 2030 emission scenarios are developed to investigate the effects of future enhancements to solar power generation. Modeling covered 6 summer and 6 winter weeks each year. We model feedback between aerosols and meteorology and thus capture direct and indirect aerosol effects. The grid resolution is 25 km and includes no nesting. Between 2005 and 2008 significant emission reductions were reported in the National Emission Inventory. The 2008 weekday emissions over the continental U.S. of SO2 and NO were reduced from 2005 values by 28% and 16%, respectively. Emission reductions of this magnitude are similar in scale to the potential emission reductions from various energy policy initiatives. By evaluating modeled and observed air quality changes from 2005 to 2008, we analyze how well the model represents the effects of historical emission changes. We also gain insight into how well the model might predict the effects of future emission changes. In addition to direct comparisons of model outputs to ground and satellite observations, we compare observed differences between 2005 and 2008 to corresponding modeled differences. Modeling was extended to future scenarios (2030) to simulate air quality and regional climate effects of large-scale adoption of solar power. The 2030-year was selected to allow time for development of solar generation infrastructure. The 2030 emission scenario was scaled, with separate factors for different economic sectors, from the 2008 National Emissions Inventory. The changes to emissions caused by the introduction of large-scale solar power (here assumed to be 10% of total energy generation) are based on results from a parallel project that used an electricity grid model applied over multiple regions across the country. The regional climate and air quality effects of future large-scale solar power adoption are analyzed in the context of uncertainty quantified by the dynamic evaluation of the historical (2005 and 2008) WRF/Chem simulations.

Forecasting the effects of land-use and climate change on wildlife communities and habitats in the lower Mississippi Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faulkner, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

Landscape patterns and processes reflect both natural ecosystem attributes and the policy and management decisions of individual Federal, State, county, and private organizations. Land-use regulation, water management, and habitat conservation and restoration efforts increasingly rely on landscape-level approaches that incorporate scientific information into the decision-making process. Since management actions are implemented to affect future conditions, decision-support models are necessary to forecast potential future conditions resulting from these decisions. Spatially explicit modeling approaches enable testing of different scenarios and help evaluate potential outcomes of management actions in conjunction with natural processes such as climate change. The ability to forecast the effects of changing land use and climate is critically important to land and resource managers since their work is inherently site specific, yet conservation strategies and practices are expressed at higher spatial and temporal scales that must be considered in the decisionmaking process.

How school can teach civic engagement besides civic education: The role of democratic school climate.

PubMed

Lenzi, Michela; Vieno, Alessio; Sharkey, Jill; Mayworm, Ashley; Scacchi, Luca; Pastore, Massimiliano; Santinello, Massimo

2014-12-01

Civic engagement, defined as involvement in community life, is influenced by reciprocal relationships between individuals and contexts and is a key factor that contributes to positive youth development. The present study evaluates a theoretical model linking perceived democratic school climate with adolescent civic engagement (operationalized as civic responsibility and intentions for future participation), taking into account the mediating role of civic discussions and perceived fairness at school. Participants were 403 adolescents (47.9 % male) ranging in age from 11 to 15 years old (mean age = 13.6). Path analysis results partially validated the proposed theoretical model. Higher levels of democratic school climate were associated with higher levels of adolescent civic responsibility; the association was fully mediated by civic discussions and perceived fairness at school. Adolescents' civic responsibility, then, was positively associated with a stronger intention to participate in the civic domain in the future.

Multidisciplinary hydrologic investigations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, William W.

1990-01-01

Future climatic conditions and tectonic processes have the potential to cause significant changes of the hydrologic system in the southern Great Basin, where a nuclear-waste repository is proposed for construction above the water table at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Geothermal anomalies in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain probably result from the local and regional transport of heat by ground-water flow. Regionally and locally irregular patterns of hydraulic potential, local marsh and pond deposits, and calcite veins in faults and fractures probably are related principally to climatically imposed hydrologic conditions within the geologic and topographic framework. However, tectonic effects on the hydrologic system have also been proposed as the causes of these features, and existing data limitations preclude a full evaluation of these competing hypotheses. A broad program that integrates many disciplines of earth science is required in order to understand the relation of hydrology to past, present and future climates and tectonism.

Experimental evaluation of reproductive response to climate warming in an oviparous skink.

PubMed

Lu, Hongliang; Wang, Yong; Tang, Wenqi; DU, Weiguo

2013-06-01

The impact of climate warming on organisms is increasingly being recognized. The experimental evaluation of phenotypically plastic responses to warming is a critical step in understanding the biological effects and adaptive capacity of organisms to future climate warming. Oviparous Scincella modesta live in deeply-shaded habitats and they require low optimal temperatures during embryonic development, which makes them suitable subjects for testing the effects of warming on reproduction. We raised adult females and incubated their eggs under different thermal conditions that mimicked potential climate warming. Female reproduction, embryonic development and hatchling traits were monitored to evaluate the reproductive response to warming. Experimental warming induced females to lay eggs earlier, but it did not affect the developmental stage of embryos at oviposition or the reproductive output. The high temperatures experienced by gravid females during warming treatments reduced the incubation period and increased embryonic mortality. The locomotor performance of hatchlings was not affected by the maternal thermal environment, but it was affected by the warming treatment during embryonic development. Our results suggest that climate warming might have a profound effect on fitness-relevant traits both at embryonic and post-embryonic stages in oviparous lizards. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Evaluating the Appropriateness of Downscaled Climate Information for Projecting Risks of Salmonella.

PubMed

Guentchev, Galina S; Rood, Richard B; Ammann, Caspar M; Barsugli, Joseph J; Ebi, Kristie; Berrocal, Veronica; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Vigh, Jonathan L; Koziol, Ben; Cinquini, Luca

2016-02-29

Foodborne diseases have large economic and societal impacts worldwide. To evaluate how the risks of foodborne diseases might change in response to climate change, credible and usable climate information tailored to the specific application question is needed. Global Climate Model (GCM) data generally need to, both, be downscaled to the scales of the application to be usable, and represent, well, the key characteristics that inflict health impacts. This study presents an evaluation of temperature-based heat indices for the Washington D.C. area derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations for 1971-2000--a necessary step in establishing the credibility of these data. The indices approximate high weekly mean temperatures linked previously to occurrences of Salmonella infections. Due to bias-correction, included in the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM) and the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA) downscaling methods, the observed 30-year means of the heat indices were reproduced reasonably well. In April and May, however, some of the statistically downscaled data misrepresent the increase in the number of hot days towards the summer months. This study demonstrates the dependence of the outcomes to the selection of downscaled climate data and the potential for misinterpretation of future estimates of Salmonella infections.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

Projection of seasonal summer precipitation over Indian sub-continent with a high-resolution AGCM based on the RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

2018-05-01

Seasonal changes in precipitation characteristics over India were projected using a high-resolution (40-km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) during the near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069), and far- (2070-2099) futures. For the model evaluation, we simulated an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type present-day climate using AGCM with observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Based on this simulation, we have simulated the current climate from 1979 to 2009 and subsequently the future climate projection until 2100 using a CMCC-CM model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using various observed precipitation data, the validation of the simulated precipitation indicates that the AGCM well-captured the high and low rain belts and also onset and withdrawal of monsoon in the present-day climate simulation. Future projections were performed for the above-mentioned time slices (near-, mid-, and far futures). The model projected an increase in summer precipitation from 7 to 18% under RCP4.5 and from 14 to 18% under RCP8.5 from the mid- to far futures. Projected summer precipitation from different time slices depicts an increase over northwest (NWI) and west-south peninsular India (SPI) and a reduction over northeast and north-central India. The model projected an eastward shift of monsoon trough around 2° longitude and expansion and intensification of Mascarene High and Tibetan High seems to be associated with projected precipitation. The model projected extreme precipitation events show an increase (20-50%) in rainy days over NWI and SPI. While a significant increase of about 20-50% is noticed in heavy rain events over SPI during the far future.

Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

2014-09-01

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region.

Transforming data into usable knowledge: the CIRC experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Lach, D.; Hartmann, H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Stevenson, J.

2017-12-01

NOAA's northwest RISA, the Climate Impacts Research Consortium, emphasizes the transformation of data into usable knowledge. This effort involves physical scientists (e.g., Abatzoglou) building web-based tools with climate and hydrologic data and model output, a team performing data mining to link crop loss claims to droughts, social scientists (eg., Lach, Hartmann) evaluating the effectiveness of such tools at communicating with end users, and two-way engagement with a wide variety of audiences who are interested in using and improving the tools. Unusual in this effort is the seamless integration across timescales past, present, and future; data mining; and the level of effort in evaluating the tools. We provide examples of agriculturally relevant climate variables (e.g. growing degree days, day of first fall freeze) and describe the iterative process of incorporating user feedback.

Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Sverdrup, H; Bowman, W D; Porter, E M

2014-04-01

To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2017-09-01

Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

SSWR Water Systems Project 3: Transformative Approaches and Technologies

EPA Science Inventory

This project aims to develop approaches and evaluate technologies that will help transform water systems towards a more sustainable future. Water systems challenged by issues such as shrinking resources, aging infrastructure, shifting demographics, and climate change need transf...

Cloud evaluation using satellite simulators and cloud changes for global nonhydrostatic simulations with NICAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Noda, A. T.; Kodama, C.; Yamada, Y.; Hashino, T.

2012-12-01

Global cloud distributions and properties simulated by the global nonhydrostatic model, NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model), are evaluated and their future changes are discussed. First, we evaluated the simulated cloud properties produced by a case study of the 3.5km mesh experiment of NICAM using the satellite simulator package (the Joint-simulator) with cloud microphysics oriented approach (Hashino et al. 2012). Then, we analyzed future cloud changes using various sets of simulations under the present and the future global warming conditions. The results show that the zonal averaged ice water path (IWP) generally decreases or marginally unchanged in the tropics, while IWP in the extra-tropics increases. The upper cloud fraction increases both in the tropics and in the extra-tropics in general. We further analyzed contributions of cloud systems such as cloud clusters, tropical cyclones (TCs), and storm-tracks to these changes. Probability distribution of the larger cloud clusters decreases, while that of the smaller ones increases, consistent with the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the future climate. Average liquid water path (LWP) and IWP associated with each tropical cyclone are diagnosed, and it is found that both the associated LWP and IWP increase under the warmer condition. Even though, since the number of the intensive cloud systems decrease, the average IWP decreases. It should be remarked that the change in TC tracks largely contribute to the change in the horizontal distribution of clouds. The NICAM simulations also show that the storm-tracks shift poleward, and the storms become less frequent and stronger in the extra-tropics, similar to the results of other general circulation models. Both LWP and IWP associated with the storms also increase in the warmer climate in the NICAM simulations. This results in increase in the upper clouds under the warmer climate condition, as described by Miura et al. (2005). References: Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Hagihara, Y., Kubota, T., Matsui, T., Nasuno, T., and Okamoto, H. (2012), Evaluating Global Cloud Distribution and Microphysics from the NICAM against CloudSat and CALIPSO, J. Geophys. Res., submitted. Miura, H., Tomita,H., Nasuno,T., Iga, S., Satoh,M., and Matsuno, T. (2005), A climate sensitivity test using a global cloud resolving model under an aqua planet condition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19717, doi:10.1029/2005GL023672.

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and precipitation over the Prespa catchment were simulated with this high horizontal resolution (12 × 12 km) regional climate model. Lake temperatures were derived from surface temperatures based on physical models, while water levels were calculated with the lake water balance model. Climate simulations indicate that annual- and wet season catchment precipitation does not significantly change by the end of the century. The median precipitation decreases, while precipitation variability increases. The percentage of annual precipitation falling in the wet season increases by 5-10%, indicating a stronger seasonality in the precipitation regime. Summer (lake) temperatures and lake surface evaporation will rise significantly under both explored climate change scenarios. Lake impact projections indicate that evaporation changes will cause the water level of Lake Megali Prespa to fall by 5m to 840-839m. The increased precipitation variability will cause large inter-annual water level fluctuations. Average water level may fall even further if: (1) drier summers lead to more water abstraction for irrigation, and (2) there is a reduction in winter snowfall/accumulation and thus less discharge. These findings are of key importance for developing sustainable lake water resource management in a region that is highly vulnerable to future climate change and already experiences significant water stress. Research paves the way for innovative management adaptation strategies focussed on decreasing water abstraction, for example through introducing smart irrigation and selecting more water efficient crops.

Future orientation, school contexts, and problem behaviors: a multilevel study.

PubMed

Chen, Pan; Vazsonyi, Alexander T

2013-01-01

The association between future orientation and problem behaviors has received extensive empirical attention; however, previous work has not considered school contextual influences on this link. Using a sample of N = 9,163 9th to 12th graders (51.0 % females) from N = 85 high schools of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the present study examined the independent and interactive effects of adolescent future orientation and school contexts (school size, school location, school SES, school future orientation climate) on problem behaviors. Results provided evidence that adolescent future orientation was associated independently and negatively with problem behaviors. In addition, adolescents from large-size schools reported higher levels of problem behaviors than their age mates from small-size schools, controlling for individual-level covariates. Furthermore, an interaction effect between adolescent future orientation and school future orientation climate was found, suggesting influences of school future orientation climate on the link between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors as well as variations in effects of school future orientation climate across different levels of adolescent future orientation. Specifically, the negative association between adolescent future orientation and problem behaviors was stronger at schools with a more positive climate of future orientation, whereas school future orientation climate had a significant and unexpectedly positive relationship with problem behaviors for adolescents with low levels of future orientation. Findings implicate the importance of comparing how the future orientation-problem behaviors link varies across different ecological contexts and the need to understand influences of school climate on problem behaviors in light of differences in psychological processes among adolescents.

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

Spatial Patterns in Water Temperature in Pacific Northwest Rivers: Diversity at Multiple Scales and Potential Influence of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torgersen, C. E.; Fullerton, A.; Lawler, J. J.; Ebersole, J. L.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Steel, E. A.; Beechie, T. J.; Faux, R.

2016-12-01

Understanding spatial patterns in water temperature will be essential for evaluating vulnerability of aquatic biota to future climate and for identifying and protecting diverse thermal habitats. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data for over 16,000 km of 2nd to 7th-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and California to evaluate spatial patterns of summertime water temperature at multiple spatial scales. We found a diverse and geographically distributed suite of whole-river patterns. About half of rivers warmed asymptotically in a downstream direction, whereas the rest exhibited complex and unique spatial patterns. Patterns were associated with both broad-scale hydroclimatic variables as well as characteristics unique to each basin. Within-river thermal heterogeneity patterns were highly river-specific; across rivers, median size and spacing of cool patches <15 °C were around 250 m. Patches of this size are large enough for juvenile salmon rearing and for resting during migration, and the distance between patches is well within the movement capabilities of both juvenile and adult salmon. We found considerable thermal heterogeneity at fine spatial scales that may be important to fish that would be missed if data were analyzed at coarser scales. We estimated future thermal heterogeneity and concluded that climate change will cause warmer temperatures overall, but that thermal heterogeneity patterns may remain similar in the future for many rivers. We demonstrated considerable spatial complexity in both current and future water temperature, and resolved spatial patterns that could not have been perceived without spatially continuous data.

Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, S.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Schurgers, G.; Wårlind, D.; Mishurov, M.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Smith, B.; Arneth, A.

2015-11-01

Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being and provide important ecosystem services such as crop yields, retention of nitrogen and carbon storage. On large (regional to global)-scale levels, assessment of how these different services will vary in space and time, especially in response to cropland management, are scarce. We explore cropland management alternatives and the effect these can have on future C and N pools and fluxes using the land-use-enabled dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). Simulated crop production, cropland carbon storage, carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land-use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. Our model experiments allow us to investigate trade-offs between these ecosystem services that can be provided from agricultural fields. These trade-offs are evaluated for current land use and climate and further explored for future conditions within the two future climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 and 8.5. Our results show that the potential for carbon sequestration due to typical cropland management practices such as no-till management and cover crops proposed in previous studies is not realised, globally or over larger climatic regions. Our results highlight important considerations to be made when modelling C-N interactions in agricultural ecosystems under future environmental change and the effects these have on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

2017-04-01

This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)-global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.

After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs-GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components.

The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971-2000 and 2021-2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 °C for all members of the RCM-GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021-2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM-GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential increase and decrease in future discharge have to be considered in climate change adaptation strategies in the catchment. The results further underline on the one hand the need for a larger ensemble of projections to properly estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the catchment and on the other hand the high uncertainty associated with climate projections for the West African region. A water-energy budget analysis provides further insight into the behavior of the catchment.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyse the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of 656 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centred on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who were more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

[Evaluating the response of yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat and the adaptation by adjusting crop variety to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].

PubMed

Hu, Shi; Mo, Xing-guo; Lin, Zhong-hui

2015-04-01

Based on the multi-model datasets of three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios from IPCC5, the response of yield and accumulative evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat to climate change in the future were assessed by VIP model. The results showed that if effects of CO2 enrichment were excluded, temperature rise would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for wheat under the three climate change scenarios, and the wheat yield and ET presented a decrease tendency. The positive effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment could offset most negative effect introduced by temperature rising, indicating that atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be the prime reason of the wheat yield rising in future. In 2050s, wheat yield would increase 14.8% (decrease 2.5% without CO2 fertilization) , and ET would decrease 2.1% under RCP4.5. By adoption of new crop variety with enhanced requirement on accumulative temperature, the wheat yield would increase more significantly with CO2 fertilization, but the water consumption would also increase. Therefore, cultivar breeding new irrigation techniques and agronomical management should be explored under the challenges of climate change in the future.

Resource Evaluation and Site Selection for Microalgae Production in India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milbrandt, A.; Jarvis, E.

2010-09-01

The study evaluates climate conditions, availability of CO2 and other nutrients, water resources, and land characteristics to identify areas in India suitable for algae production. The purpose is to provide an understanding of the resource potential in India for algae biofuels production and to assist policymakers, investors, and industry developers in their future strategic decisions.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

PubMed

Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2017-01-01

Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

PubMed

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

2015-04-01

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change.

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai'i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Impact of climate change on olive crop flowering at southern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; de la Rosa, Raúl; León, Lorenzo; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Belaj, Angjelina; Lorite, Ignacio

2016-04-01

Andalusia region (Southern Spain) is the largest olive oil producer in the world with 40% of the total production (1.1millions tons; FAOSTAT, 2013). Predicting flowering dates of olive under future climate conditions has a critical importance as flowering is a critical stage for olive as heat and water stresses during this period have a significant impact on final olive oil yield. The aim of this study was to evaluate the olive flowering dates under future climate conditions. Climate data for the future period was obtained from the ENSEMBLES European Project (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/) with a bias correction in temperature and precipitation with regard with the SPAIN02 dataset (Herrera et al., 2012) (ENS-SP). Flowering of ten different olive cultivars were evaluated under current and forced (greenhouse) climate conditions, applying the bias in temperatures comparing the current period (1981-2010) with the future period (2071-2100) to the current conditions in Cordoba (Andalusia, Spain). These observations allowed obtaining a flowering approach which was applied to the whole Andalusia region. The results showed an average advance in flowering dates about 16 days at the end of the 21st century. With these results different areas within Andalusia region were classified based on the vulnerability caused by the lack of chilling hours accumulation (coastal areas) or by high temperatures during flowering (north and northeast regions). This study has been supported by the project RTA2014-00030-00-00 funded by INIA and FEDER 2014-2020 "Programa Operativo de Crecimiento Inteligente" and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. FAOSTAT (2013) Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/Q/QD/E. Accessed 07 January 2016 Herrera S, Gutiérrez JM, Ancell R, Pons MR, Frías MD, Fernández J. 2012. Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology 32(1): 74-85. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2256.

The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

2014-12-01

Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO indices. For instance, the mean correlation of AMO with precipitation/discharge for a zero-year lag was 0.16/0.09 and increased to 0.26/0.23 for a 1-year lag. Our study provides an insight on the lagged hydrologic response of reference catchments and developed basins to variations in oceanic indices.

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

2010-09-01

Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates

Treesearch

Brad St. Clair;  Glenn T. Howe

2007-01-01

Climates are expected to warm considerably over the next century, resulting in expectations that plant populations will not be adapted to future climates.We estimated the risk of maladaptation of current populations of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to future climates as the proportion of nonoverlap between two normal...

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Bannayan, Mohammad; Paymard, Parisa; Ashraf, Batool

2016-10-01

Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

PubMed Central

Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

2015-01-01

Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

Climate change adaptation via targeted ecosystem service provision: a sustainable land management strategy for the Segura catchment (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro

2014-05-01

Topical research investigating climate, land-use and management scenarios in the Segura catchment (SE Spain), depicts a landscape at high-risk of, quite literally, deserting agriculture. Land degradation in the semi-arid region of SE Spain is characterized by water shortage, high erosion rates and salinization, increasingly exacerbated by climatic changes, scarce vegetation cover and detrimental farming practices. Future climate scenarios predict increases in aridity, variability and intensity of rainfall events, leading to increasing pressure on scarce soil and water resources. This study conceptualized the impending crisis of agro-ecological systems of the Segura basin (18800 km2) as a crisis of ecosystem service deterioration. In light of existing land degradation drivers and future climate scenarios, the potential of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies was evaluated to target three priority ecosystem services (water provision, sediment retention and carbon sequestration) as a means to achieve climate change adaptation and mitigation. A preceding thorough process of stakeholder engagement (as part of the EU funded DESIRE project) indicated five SLM technologies for potential implementation, all with a focus upon reducing soil erosion, increasing soil water holding capacity and soil organic matter content. These technologies have been tested for over four years in local experimental field plots, and have provided results on the local effects upon individual environmental parameters. Despite the growing emphasis witnessed in literature upon the context-specificity which characterizes adaptation solutions, the frequent analysis at the field scale is limited in both scope and utility. There is a need to investigate the effects of adaptive SLM solutions at wider, regional scales. Thus, this study modeled the cumulative effect of each of the five selected SLM technologies with InVEST, a spatial analyst tool designed for ecosystem service quantification and valuation. Scenario impacts upon the three prioritized ecosystem services were evaluated under present and expected future climate conditions (IPCC A1B scenario storyline for 2050) using ensemble regional climate model predictions. Results are given for both the entire Segura catchment as well as for delineated sub-catchments. This study's value lies in providing relevant stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts. Furthermore, this research hopes to contribute towards the mainstreaming of the ecosystem services concept in land management policy and research, and thus to familiarize relevant stakeholders with the concept, facilitating scaling-up processes by communicating the necessity and a means to successfully achieve climate adaptation.

Indigenous Health and Climate Change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global–local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718

Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lent, Robert M.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2015-01-01

Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.

"Participatory Cli-Fi": Crowdsourcing Voicemails from the Future to Spark Engagement and Discern Perceptions of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovall, G.; Eklund, K.; Redsecker, K.; Hernandez, T.; Pfirman, S. L.; Orlove, B. S.

2016-12-01

Communicating climate science alone is not enough to engage the public with climate change: the gap between the abstract science and its impact on their future lives is often too great. We constructed FutureCoast, a collaborative game, to use participatory storymaking as the art that bridges that gap. The FutureCoast game pretended the voicemail system of the future "had a leak in it" and invited people to call and leave voicemail messages that seem to have leaked from the future. These crowdsourced voicemails are short first-person stories that often create complex, visceral experiences of potential climate impacts in listeners. We transcribed and coded this audio for content and affect, finding both a wide array of anticipated climate futures and trends in public sentiment about climate related impacts. Our analysis found the public engages with climate change in both rational and emotional manners which should be considered when motivating them to action. This presentation highlights our methodology and assessment of innovative gameful engagement, and summarizes how the FutureCoast "participatory cli-fi" approach has been employed in community and classroom settings after the close of the active period of the game.

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

2010-10-01

This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Reliability of regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahrens, W.; Block, A.; Böhm, U.; Hauffe, D.; Keuler, K.; Kücken, M.; Nocke, Th.

2003-04-01

Quantification of uncertainty becomes more and more a key issue for assessing the trustability of future climate scenarios. In addition to the mean conditions, climate impact modelers focus in particular on extremes. Before generating such scenarios using e.g. dynamic regional climate models, a careful validation of present-day simulations should be performed to determine the range of errors for the quantities of interest under recent conditions as a raw estimate of their uncertainty in the future. Often, multiple aspects shall be covered together, and the required simulation accuracy depends on the user's demand. In our approach, a massive parallel regional climate model shall be used on the one hand to generate "long-term" high-resolution climate scenarios for several decades, and on the other hand to provide very high-resolution ensemble simulations of future dry spells or heavy rainfall events. To diagnosis the model's performance for present-day simulations, we have recently developed and tested a first version of a validation and visualization chain for this model. It is, however, applicable in a much more general sense and could be used as a common test bed for any regional climate model aiming at this type of simulations. Depending on the user's interest, integrated quality measures can be derived for near-surface parameters using multivariate techniques and multidimensional distance measures in a first step. At this point, advanced visualization techniques have been developed and included to allow for visual data mining and to qualitatively identify dominating aspects and regularities. Univariate techniques that are especially designed to assess climatic aspects in terms of statistical properties can then be used to quantitatively diagnose the error contributions of the individual used parameters. Finally, a comprehensive in-depth diagnosis tool allows to investigate, why the model produces the obtained near-surface results to answer the question if the model performs well from the modeler's point of view. Examples will be presented for results obtained using this approach for assessing the risk of potential total agricultural yield loss under drought conditions in Northeast Brazil and for evaluating simulation results for a 10-year period for Europe. To support multi-run simulations and result evaluation, the model will be embedded into an already existing simulation environment that provides further postprocessing tools for sensitivity studies, behavioral analysis and Monte-Carlo simulations, but also for ensemble scenario analysis in one of the next steps.

Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2015-12-01

With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

2017-04-01

This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial distribution of recharge (both average value and its uncertainty) from the difference in P and EA in each area. A complete analysis of potential short-term (2016-2045) future climate scenarios in continental Spain has been performed by considering different sources of uncertainty. It is based on the historical climatic data for the period 1976-2005 and the climatic models simulations (for the control [1976-2005] and future scenarios [2016-2045]) performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The most pessimistic emission scenario (RCP8.5) has been considered. For the RCP8.5 scenario we have analyzed the time series generated by simulating with 5 Regional Climatic models (CCLM4-8-17, RCA4, HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and WRF331F) nested to 4 different General Circulation Models (GCMs). Two different conceptual approaches (bias correction and delta change techniques) have been applied to generate potential future climate scenarios from these data. Different ensembles of obtained time series have been proposed to obtain more representative scenarios by considering all the simulations or only those providing better approximations to the historical statistics based on a multicriteria analysis. This was a step to analyze future potential impacts on the aquifer recharge by simulating them within a rainfall-recharge model. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) and the PMAFI/06/14 (UCAM) projects.

Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main coniferous species for a sustainable forest management in the context of climate change), financed by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, grant number PN-II-PC-PCCA-2013-4-0695.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafael, S., E-mail: sandra.rafael@ua.pt

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were appliedmore » for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986–2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046–2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. - Highlights: • Assessment of energy fluxes behaviour under past period and medium-term climate change projection. • Evaluation of climate change at urban scale. • Meteorological variables alters the partitioning of the energy fluxes. • Changes in the partition of the annual energy balance are found between the two analysed periods. • Increase in the magnitude of sensible and storage heat fluxes.« less

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2018-01-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olesen, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Boberg, F.

2016-12-01

Climate change indices for Greenland applied directly for other arctic regions - Enhanced and utilized climate information from one high resolution RCM downscaling for Greenland evaluated through pattern scaling and CMIP5Climate change affects the Greenlandic society both advantageously and disadvantageously. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may result in changes in a number of derived society related climate indices, such as the length of growing season or the number of annual dry days or a combination of the two - indices of substantial importance to society in a climate adaptation context.Detailed climate indices require high resolution downscaling. We have carried out a very high resolution (5 km) simulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM5, forced by the global model EC-Earth. Evaluation of RCM output is usually done with an ensemble of downscaled output with multiple RCM's and GCM's. Here we have introduced and tested a new technique; a translation of the robustness of an ensemble of GCM models from CMIP5 into the specific index from the HIRHAM5 downscaling through a correlation between absolute temperatures and its corresponding index values from the HIRHAM5 output.The procedure is basically conducted in two steps: First, the correlation between temperature and a given index for the HIRHAM5 simulation by a best fit to a second order polynomial is identified. Second, the standard deviation from the CMIP5 simulations is introduced to show the corresponding standard deviation of the index from the HIRHAM5 run. The change of specific climate indices due to global warming will then be possible to evaluate elsewhere corresponding to the change in absolute temperature.Results based on selected indices with focus on the future climate in Greenland calculated for the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios will be presented.

NOAA's State Climate Summaries for the National Climate Assessment: A Sustained Assessment Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Champion, S.; Frankson, R.; Easterling, D. R.; Griffin, J.; Runkle, J. D.; Stevens, L. E.; Stewart, B. C.; Sun, L.; Veasey, S.

2016-12-01

A set of State Climate Summaries have been produced for all 50 U.S. states as part of the National Climate Assessment Sustained Assessment and represent a NOAA contribution to this process. Each summary includes information on observed and projected climate change conditions and impacts associated with future greenhouse gas emissions pathways. The summaries focus on the physical climate and coastal issues as a part of NOAA's mission. Core climate data and simulations used to produce these summaries have been previously published, and have been analyzed to represent a targeted synthesis of historical and plausible future climate conditions. As these are intended to be supplemental to major climate assessment development, the scope of the content remains true to a "summary" style document. Each state's Climate Summary includes its climatology and projections of future temperatures and precipitation, which are presented in order to provide a context for the assessment of future impacts. The climatological component focuses on temperature, precipitation, and noteworthy weather events specific to each state and relevant to the climate change discussion. Future climate scenarios are also briefly discussed, using well-known and consistent sets of climate model simulations based on two possible futures of greenhouse gas emissions. These future scenarios present an internally consistent climate picture for every state and are intended to inform the potential impacts of climate change. These 50 State Climate Summaries were produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the North Carolina State University Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC (CICS-NC) with additional input provided by climate experts, including the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and State Climatologists. Each summary document also underwent a comprehensive and anonymous peer review. Each summary contains text, figures, and an interactive web presentation. A full suite of the comprehensive analyses and metadata are also available. The audience is targeted as both decision-makers and informed non-scientists. This presentation will discuss the scientific development for the project, demonstrate the suite of information, and provide examples of noteworthy figures from select states.

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, Daniel; Fita, Lluis; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-11-01

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.

Impact of climate change on irrigation management for olive orchards at southern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorite, Ignacio; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Santos, Cristina; Belaj, Angjelina; de la Rosa, Raul; Leon, Lorenzo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2017-04-01

The irrigation management for olive orchards under future weather conditions requires the development of advanced tools for considering specific physiological and phenological components affected by the foreseen changes in climate and atmospheric [CO2]. In this study a new simulation model named AdaptaOlive has been considered to develop controlled deficit irrigation and full irrigation scheduling for the traditional olive orchards located in Andalusia region (southern Spain) under the projected climate generated by an ensemble of 11 climate models from the ENSEMBLES European project corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. Irrigation requirements, irrigation water productivity (IWP) and net margin (NM) were evaluated for three periods (baseline, near future and far future) and three irrigation strategies (rainfed, RF, controlled deficit irrigation, CDI, and full irrigation, FI). For irrigation requirements, a very limited average increase for far future compared with baseline period was found (2.6 and 1.3%, for CDI and FI, respectively). Equally, when IWP was analyzed, significant increases were identified for both irrigation strategies (77.4 and 72.2%, for CDI and FI, respectively) due to the high simulated increase in yield. Finally, when net margin was analyzed, the irrigation water cost had a key significance. For low water costs FI provided higher net margin values than for CDI. However, for high water costs (expected in the future due to the foreseen reduction in rainfall and the increase of the competence for the available water resources), net margin is reduced significantly, generating a very elevated number of years with negative net margin. All the described results are affected by a high level of uncertainty as the projections from the ensemble of 11 climate models show large spread. Thus, for a representative location within Andalusia region as Baeza, a reduction of irrigation requirements under full irrigation strategy was found for the ensemble mean (equal to 0.5%). However, when the individual projections from the 11 climate models were considered the variation of irrigation requirements for far future compared with baseline period ranged from increases of 8.5% to reductions of 10.7%. This fact demonstrates the necessity to consider ensembles of climate models for identifying averaged impacts and the range of variability of these impacts, quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates related with water management in the future. The study concludes that the promotion of controlled deficit irrigation strategies is an excellent adaptation strategy. However, this strategy must be supported with the enhance of farmers' training by the implementation of local or regional irrigation advisory services.

Influence of projected snow and sea-ice changes on future climate in heavy snowfall region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumura, S.; Sato, T.

2011-12-01

Snow/ice albedo and cloud feedbacks are critical for climate change projection in cryosphere regions. However, future snow and sea-ice distributions are significantly different in each GCM. Thus, surface albedo in cryosphere regions is one of the causes of the uncertainty for climate change projection. Northern Japan is one of the heaviest snowfall regions in the world. In particular, Hokkaido is bounded on the north by the Okhotsk Sea, where is the southernmost ocean in the Northern Hemisphere that is covered with sea ice during winter. Wintertime climate around Hokkaido is highly sensitive to fluctuations in snow and sea-ice. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of global warming on future climate around Hokkaido, using the Pseudo-Global-Warming method (PGW) by a regional climate model. The boundary conditions of the PGW run were obtained by adding the difference between the future (2090s) and past (1990s) climates simulated by coupled general circulation model (MIROC3.2 medres), which is from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset, into the 6-hourly NCEP reanalysis (R-2) and daily OISST data in the past climate (CTL) run. The PGW experiments show that snow depth significantly decreases over mountainous areas and snow cover mainly decreases over plain areas, contributing to higher surface warming due to the decreased snow albedo. Despite the snow reductions, precipitation mainly increases over the mountainous areas because of enhanced water vapor content. However, precipitation decreases over the Japan Sea and the coastal areas, indicating the weakening of a convergent cloud band, which is formed by convergence between cold northwesteries from the Eurasian continent and anticyclonic circulation over the Okhotsk Sea. These results suggest that Okhotsk sea-ice decline may change the atmospheric circulation and the resulting effect on cloud formation, resulting in changes in winter snow or precipitation. We will also examine another CMIP3 model (MRI-CGCM2.3.2), which sensitivity of surface albedo to surface air temperature is the lowest in the CMIP3 models.

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz

2018-03-01

Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23468879

Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

PubMed

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Future Water Management in the South Platte River Basin: Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing, Population, Agriculture, and Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Anderson, A. M.; Read, L.

2015-12-01

In semi-arid basins across the world, the gap between water supply and demand is growing due to climate change, population growth, and shifts in agriculture and unconventional energy development. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques and innovative regulatory frameworks for water management strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these strategies are often difficult to quantify and not included in modeling water allocations. Decision support systems (DSS) are purposeful for supporting water managers in making informed decisions when competing demands create the need to optimize water allocation between sectors. One region of particular interest is the semi-arid region of the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado, where anthropogenic and climatic effects are expected to increase the gap between water supply and demand in the near future. Specifically, water use in the South Platte is impacted by several high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, i.e. hydraulic fracturing, and large withdrawals for agriculture; these demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050. The current work describes the development of a DSS for the South Platte River basin, using the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP) to explore scenarios of how variation in future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal sectors will impact water allocation decisions. Detailed data collected on oil and gas water use in the Niobrara shale play will be utilized to predict future sector use. We also employ downscaled climate projections for the region to quantify the potential range of water availability in the basin under each scenario, and observe whether or not, and to what extent, climate may impact management decisions at the basin level.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovič, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalský, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Obersteiner, Michael

2014-11-01

Wheat is the third largest crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. A large geographic variation in wheat yields across similar climates points to sizeable yield gaps in many nations, and indicates a regionally variable flexibility to increase wheat production. Wheat is particularly sensitive to a changing climate thus limiting management opportunities to enable (sustainable) intensification with potentially significant implications for future wheat production. We present a comprehensive global evaluation of future wheat yields and production under distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model. We project, in a geographically explicit manner, future wheat production pathways for rainfed and irrigated wheat systems. We explore agricultural management flexibility by quantifying the development of wheat yield potentials under current, rainfed, exploitable (given current irrigation infrastructure), and irrigated intensification levels. Globally, because of climate change, wheat production under conventional management (around the year 2000) would decrease across all RCPs by 37 to 52 and 54 to 103 Mt in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. However, the exploitable and potential production gap will stay above 350 and 580 Mt, respectively, for all RCPs and time horizons, indicating that negative impacts of climate change can globally be offset by adequate intensification using currently existing irrigation infrastructure and nutrient additions. Future world wheat production on cropland already under cultivation can be increased by ~ 35% through intensified fertilization and ~ 50% through increased fertilization and extended irrigation, if sufficient water would be available. Significant potential can still be exploited, especially in rainfed wheat systems in Russia, Eastern Europe and North America.

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE PAGES

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Aiguo

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

PubMed

Dai, Aiguo

2016-01-11

The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

A Water Resources Management Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts in North-Patagonia, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucciarelli, L. F.; Losano, F. T.; Marizza, M.; Cello, P.; Forni, L.; Young, C. A.; Girardin, L. O.; Nadal, G.; Lallana, F.; Godoy, S.; Vallejos, R.

2014-12-01

Most recently developed climate scenarios indicate a potential future increase in water stress in the region of Comahue, located in the North-Patagonia, Argentina. This region covers about 140,000 km2 where the Limay River and the Neuquén River converge into the Negro River, constituting the largest integrated basins in Argentina providing various uses of water resources: a) hydropower generation, contributing 15% of the national electricity market; b) fruit-horticultural products for local markets and export; c) human and industrial water supply; d) mining and oil exploitation, including Vaca Muerta, second world largest reserves of shale gas and fourth world largest reserves of shale-oil. The span of multiple jurisdictions and the convergence of various uses of water resources are a challenge for integrated understanding of economically and politically driven resource use activities on the natural system. The impacts of climate change on the system could lead to water resource conflicts between the different political actors and stakeholders. This paper presents the results of a hydrological simulation of the Limay river and Neuquén river basins using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) considering the operation of artificial reservoirs located downstream at a monthly time step. This study aims to support policy makers via integrated tools for water-energy planning under climate uncertainties, and to facilitate the formulation of water policy-related actions for future water stress adaptation. The value of the integrated resource use model is that it can support local policy makers understand the implications of resource use trade-offs under a changing climate: 1) water availability to meet future growing demand for irrigated areas; 2) water supply for hydropower production; 3) increasing demand of water for mining and extraction of unconventional oil; 4) potential resource use conflicts and impacts on vulnerable populations.

Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution).

PubMed

Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

2011-12-01

Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg(-1) dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (A(sat)) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A(sat) in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Envelope Modeling and Dispersal Simulations Show Little Risk of Range Extension of the Shipworm, Teredo navalis (L.), in the Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Appelqvist, Christin; Al-Hamdani, Zyad K.; Jonsson, Per R.; Havenhand, Jon N.

2015-01-01

The shipworm, Teredo navalis, is absent from most of the Baltic Sea. In the last 20 years, increased frequency of T. navalis has been reported along the southern Baltic Sea coasts of Denmark, Germany, and Sweden, indicating possible range-extensions into previously unoccupied areas. We evaluated the effects of historical and projected near-future changes in salinity, temperature, and oxygen on the risk of spread of T. navalis in the Baltic. Specifically, we developed a simple, GIS-based, mechanistic climate envelope model to predict the spatial distribution of favourable conditions for adult reproduction and larval metamorphosis of T. navalis, based on published environmental tolerances to these factors. In addition, we used a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrographic model to simulate the probability of spread of T. navalis larvae within the study area. Climate envelope modeling showed that projected near-future climate change is not likely to change the overall distribution of T. navalis in the region, but will prolong the breeding season and increase the risk of shipworm establishment at the margins of the current range. Dispersal simulations indicated that the majority of larvae were philopatric, but those that spread over a wider area typically spread to areas unfavourable for their survival. Overall, therefore, we found no substantive evidence for climate-change related shifts in the distribution of T. navalis in the Baltic Sea, and no evidence for increased risk of spread in the near-future. PMID:25768305

A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.

2017-12-01

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2018-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.

PubMed

Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger

2017-05-15

Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

REPORT TO CONGRESS ON BLACK CARBON | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Report to Congress on Black Carbon describes domestic and international sources of black carbon emissions, and summarizes available scientific information on the climate effects of black carbon. Further, the Report evaluates available black carbon mitigation options and their potential for protecting climate, public health, and the environment. The EPA Advisory Council on Clean Air Compliance Analysis has peer-reviewed the report. In the October 2009 Interior Appropriations bill, Congress requested that EPA, in consultation with other Federal agencies, study the emissions and impacts of black carbon in the US and internationally. To fulfill this charge, EPA has conducted an intensive effort to compile, assess, and summarize available scientific information on the current and future impacts of black carbon, and to evaluate the effectiveness of available mitigation approaches and technologies for protecting climate, public health, and the environment.

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

2012-01-01

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

PubMed Central

Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

2015-01-01

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. PMID:26658608

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Decision-relevant evaluation of climate models: A case study of chill hours in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Kerr, A. C.

2017-12-01

The past decade has seen a proliferation of different climate datasets with over 60 climate models currently in use. Comparative evaluation and validation of models can assist practitioners chose the most appropriate models for adaptation planning. However, such assessments are usually conducted for `climate metrics' such as seasonal temperature, while sectoral decisions are often based on `decision-relevant outcome metrics' such as growing degree days or chill hours. Since climate models predict different metrics with varying skill, the goal of this research is to conduct a bottom-up evaluation of model skill for `outcome-based' metrics. Using chill hours (number of hours in winter months where temperature is lesser than 45 deg F) in Fresno, CA as a case, we assess how well different GCMs predict the historical mean and slope of chill hours, and whether and to what extent projections differ based on model selection. We then compare our results with other climate-based evaluations of the region, to identify similarities and differences. For the model skill evaluation, historically observed chill hours were compared with simulations from 27 GCMs (and multiple ensembles). Model skill scores were generated based on a statistical hypothesis test of the comparative assessment. Future projections from RCP 8.5 runs were evaluated, and a simple bias correction was also conducted. Our analysis indicates that model skill in predicting chill hour slope is dependent on its skill in predicting mean chill hours, which results from the non-linear nature of the chill metric. However, there was no clear relationship between the models that performed well for the chill hour metric and those that performed well in other temperature-based evaluations (such winter minimum temperature or diurnal temperature range). Further, contrary to conclusions from other studies, we also found that the multi-model mean or large ensemble mean results may not always be most appropriate for this outcome metric. Our assessment sheds light on key differences between global versus local skill, and broad versus specific skill of climate models, highlighting that decision-relevant model evaluation may be crucial for providing practitioners with the best available climate information for their specific needs.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salzmann, Ulrich; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Voss, Jochen; Hill, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Bragg, Frances J.; Chandler, Mark A.;

Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations

PubMed Central

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyze the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of more than 600 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centered on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who are more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals’ perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations. PMID:28603558

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

PubMed Central

Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain. PMID:28704433

Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

2017-01-01

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

2017-07-01

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8-12°N, 20°W-20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031-2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1-2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1-2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.

Effects of climate change on polar bears.

PubMed

Wiig, Øystein; Aars, Jon; Born, Erik W

2008-01-01

In this article, we review the effects on polar bears of global warming that have already been observed, and try to evaluate what may happen to the polar bears in the future. Many researchers have predicted a wide range of impacts of climate change on polar bear demography and conditions. A predicted major reduction in sea ice habitat will reduce the availability of ice associated seals, the main prey of polar bears, and a loss and fragmentation of polar bear habitat will ultimately lead to large future reductions in most subpopulations. It is likely that polar bears will be lost from many areas where they are common today and also that the total population will change into a few more distinctly isolated populations.

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kopp, Robert E.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scholes, Robert; Birkmann, Joern; Foden, Wendy; Licker, Rachel; Mach, Katharine J.; Marbaix, Phillippe; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Price, Jeff; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Yohe, Gary

2017-01-01

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

Treesearch

Kenneth L. Cole; Kirsten Ironside; Jon Eischeid; Gregg Garfin; Phillip B. Duffy; Chris Toney

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ~11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the...

Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

2017-04-01

Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Kaiser, Lauren R.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

2017-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Markstrom, Steven

2014-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks.The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output.Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

The Water Balance Portal in Saxony - An interactive web application concerning the impact of climate change on the water balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauffe, Corina; Schwarze, Robert; Röhm, Patric; Müller, Ruben; Dröge, Werner; Gurova, Anastasia; Winkler, Peter; Baldy, Agnes

2016-04-01

Changes in weather and climate lead to increasing discussions about reasons and possible future impacts on the hydrological cycle. The question of a changed distribution of water also concerns the federal state of Saxony in the eastern part of Germany. Especially with a look at the different and increased requirements for water authorities, water economy and the public. To define and prepare these future requirements estimations of the future development of the natural water resources are necessary. Therefore data, information, and forecast concerning the development of the several components of the water balance are needed. And to make the obtained information easily available for experts and the public, tools like the internet have to be used. Under these frame conditions the water balance portal Saxony (www.wasserhaushaltsportal.sachsen.de) was developed within the project KliWES. The overall approach of the project was devided into the so-called „3 pillars".The first pillar focused on the evaluation of the status quo water balance from 1951-2005 by using a complex area-wide analysis of measured data. Also it contained the generating of a database and the development of a physically based parameter model. Furthermore an extensive model evaluation has been conducted with a number of objective assessment criteria, to select an appropriate model for the project. The second pillar included the calibration of the water balance model and the impact study of climate and land use change (1961-2100) on the water balance of Saxonian catchments. In this context 13 climate scenarios and three land use scenarios were simulated. The web presence of these two pillars represents a classical information service, which provides finalized results at the spatial resolution of sub-catchments using GIS-based webpages. The third pillar focused on the development of an interactive expert system. It allows the user (public, officials and consulting engineers) to simulate the water balance with user defined catchment parameters for catchments in Saxony under recent climatic und climate change conditions.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.